Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 7/13/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** IN4071

IN4071

**India**

**Agricultural Situation**

**Monsoon Progress Report No. 2**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Michael Riedel

U.S. Embassy, New Delhi

**Prepared by:**

A. Govindan

**Report Highlights:**

There has been a significant slowing of monsoon activity during the past
two weeks, coinciding with the peak-planting season for most fall
harvested crops. Unless the monsoon revives soon, crop production may be
in jeopardy.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

New Delhi \[IN1\]

\[IN\]

There has been a significant slowing of monsoon activity during the past
two weeks, coinciding with the peak-planting season for most *kharif*
(fall harvested) crops, including rice, coarse cereals, pulses, peanut,
soybeans, and cotton. This is causing serious concern among farmers and
government officials, prompting them to formulate contingency plans in
case the monsoon fails. Inadequate rains have already slowed down
planting operations of most crops. Unless the monsoon revives soon,
production of *kharif* crops, particularly non-irrigated crops such as
oilseeds, coarse grains, and pulses may be in jeopardy, as the window of
opportunity for planting these crops will close soon.

Most parts of the country received significantly below normal rains
during the weeks ending June 30 and July 7, taking the cumulative
rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season to about 10 percent
below normal (see charts below). Twelve of the 36 weather subdivisions
received below normal cumulative rainfall during the week ending July 7,
compared with only 4 during the corresponding period of last year. Worst
affected regions are Telangana and Raylaseema in the state of Andhra
Pradesh (coarse grains, peanut), Rajasthan (coarse grains, pulses), West
Madhya Pradesh (soybeans), Vidarbha in Maharashtra (cotton, soybeans),
Jharkand (rice and coarse grains), west Uttar Pradesh and Punjab (rice),
coastal Karnataka (rice), and Gujarat (peanut, cotton, coarse grains).

Some parts of Assam, Bihar, and West Bengal in northeast India, however,
experienced severe flooding, resulting in loss of human life and damage
to property. However, the impact of the flooding on crop production
typically is minimal.

According to the latest available official data, inadequate rains have
adversely affected sowing of almost all kharif crops, with the exception
of cotton. Rice planting has so far covered 4.8 million hectares,
compared with 5.2 million hectares during the corresponding period of
last year. Coarse grain planting has taken place only in 6.5 million
hectares compared to 8 million hectares during a comparable period last
year. Planting of soybeans is lagging behind last year by almost 40
percent at 1.9 million hectares; peanut planting is slightly ahead of
last year's level, thanks to excellent rains in Gujarat during the last
part of June. Sugarcane planting covered 3.7 million hectares compared
with 4.5 million hectares last year. Area covered under cotton is 3.2
million hectares, compared with 2.6 million hectares during the
corresponding period of last year.

Following relatively poor monsoon rains, the water tables in major
reservoirs as of July 2, 2004, declined to 94 percent of the 10-year
average level from 108 percent a week ago, although it is still 39
percent higher than last year's level.

![](media/image2.png){width="6.197916666666667in"
height="7.373611111111111in"}

Source: **Monsoon On Line** by David Stephenson, K. Rupa Kumar, and
Emily Black at:
<http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Monsoon/frameindex.html>