**USGS Integrated Earth System Science Data Bases, Knowledge, and
Products in the Great Lakes:**

**A Pilot Project Plan to Address Nearshore Fish Habitat and
Recreational Water Quality in Southwestern Lake Erie**

*by*

Peter Barnes (GD, CA), Sheridan Haack\* (WRD, MI), Scott Lundstrom (GD,
CO), Don Rosenberry (WRD/NRP, CO), Jacqueline Savino (BRD, MI), Rob
Striegl (WRD/NRP, CO), and Mark Wolcott (BRD, WI)

\*Project Contact

*"Earth system science (ESS) takes the main components of planet Earth
-- the atmosphere, oceans, freshwater, rocks, soils, and biosphere --
and seeks to understand major patterns and processes in their dynamics.
To do this, we need to study not only the processes that go on within
each component (traditionally the realms of oceanography, atmospheric
physics, and ecology, to name but three), but also interactions between
these components. It is the need to study and understand these
between-component interactions that defines ESS as a discipline in its
own right." Lawton, 2001*

This recent quotation from the journal *Science* defines earth system
science, a discipline in its own right for which the USGS is uniquely
qualified. This Pilot Project Plan accompanies a Joint Planning Document
that outlines Great Lakes nearshore habitat and water quality issues and
a USGS earth system science approach to address them. Application of
earth system science in a purposeful pilot project will demonstrate the
value added from integrated science and will provide managers with
better tools to oversee the nearshore margin of the Great Lakes, an area
that largely has been neglected by previous discipline-based science.

**Project Summary**

This project proposes to develop approaches and explore methods in the
USGS application of earth system science to determine linked biological,
hydrological, geological and land use processes significant to
understanding and managing changes that influence Great Lakes nearshore
environments. The issues to be addressed will be taken from the USGS
Great Lakes Strategic Plan in consultation with collaborators and
partners in the Great Lakes Region. The first Task (#1) is iterative
hypothesis development in conjunction with collaborators and
stakeholders. The second Task (#2) is a pilot study to develop a
template for USGS interdisciplinary field and data compilation. This
interdisciplinary pilot project will serve as a model template for Great
Lakes-wide earth system science, encompassing data acquisition and
presentation, analyses of processes, and understanding of process
linkages. In addition, predictive tools will be developed to assess the
impacts of natural and anthropogenic change and perturbations to
nearshore environments.

**Project Objectives and Strategy**

The proposed pilot effort seeks to develop (1) interdisciplinary
hypotheses, (2) uniform interdisciplinary data collection approaches,
(3) an interdisciplinary USGS database, (4) an integrated scientific
understanding and (5) a conceptual model of linked coastal and nearshore
processes directed toward DOI and Federal Great Lakes Management Issues.

A two-year pilot study will approach this goal by developing preliminary
interdisciplinary hypotheses regarding the linkages between hydrologic,
biologic, geologic and anthropogenic processes and nearshore fish
habitat and recreational water quality as influenced by changes in water
level and climate. In year one, customer and client input will be sought
in a workshop to refine overall scope and outcomes of the integrated
pilot study, to solidify study site selection, and to build
partnerships. In this proposal, a site in southwestern Lake Erie will be
recommended for the pilot study as it would build upon an ongoing USGS
study and reduce costs due to logistical considerations. However,
customer and client input may redefine final site selection. In the
second half of year one and the first half of year two we propose a
WRD/BRD/GD/NMD pilot field study that develops uniform approaches and
combined data collection protocols to test hypotheses. The field study
will focus on understanding the linked physical, biological and land use
processes significant to nearshore fish ecology and recreational water
quality in Southwestern Lake Erie. We plan for the pilot study to
provide a conceptual model of the interdisciplinary linkages and their
response to change, as exemplified by water level change. The pilot
study methods and products will be used as a USGS template for Great
Lakes-wide earth system science, encompassing data collection,
compilation and presentation, and process analysis.

USGS will be required to apply new approaches, skills and perspectives
to data comparison and integrated analysis to assure USGS success in
newly integrated endeavors. For our integrated strategy to be
successful, we see the need for a post doctoral scientist trained in
earth science system disciplines, and a staff person skilled in
metadata, GIS and large database management, to be involved in the
project from the start. In addition, effective integrated field and data
compilation efforts might benefit greatly from temporary relocation of
staff and might also facilitate the success of the interdisciplinary
work.

**Potential Impacts and Major Products**

Understanding earth system science linkages in the near shore will allow
the USGS to describe and explain/model how natural and anthropogenic
changes in coastal areas will affect natural resources. Scientists will
better understand the processes and linkages that occur in the nearshore
margins of the Great Lakes, an area that largely has been neglected by
previous studies. Lake and watershed managers will be better able to
manage water and biological resources in these nearshore areas, and
predictions will be possible for assessing the impacts of natural and
anthropogenic perturbations such as water level change, to nearshore
environments. Major anticipated products from the pilot effort are:

• Hypotheses linking changes among coastal and nearshore hydrology,
geology, biology and land use.

> • Identification of processes that will become "unlinked" by future
> natural or anthropogenic change (e.g., as a result of new development;
> construction of a breakwall; new road; sand mining).

• Unified database and GIS of USGS and collaborator earth system science
information.

• Interdisciplinary and disciplinary scientific reports and journal
articles describing nearshore character and processes, as well as
articles describing new approaches to conducting earth system science

> • Draft conceptual models or reports that link cause and effect
> responses to physical and biological change at the pilot study site
> (straw decision support tools).
>
> • Development of new tools for addressing earth system science
> research questions that make use of cross-disciplinary techniques.

By developing and providing a tested earth system science template for
coordinated hypothesis generation, data collection, interpretation and
conceptual integrated model development, the USGS will provide
leadership for assessing earth system processes within the Great Lakes.

**Timeline**

**YEAR 1**

Month

  -------- ----- ---------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
  1        2     3          4     5     6     7        8     9       10    11    12

  **TASK                                      **TASK                             
  1, A**                                      2**                                

                                                                                 

                 Workshop                                    1^st^               
                                                             Data                

                                                                                 
  -------- ----- ---------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ------- ----- ----- -----

**YEAR 2**

Month

  -------- ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ------------------- ----- ----------- -----
  1        2     3       4     5     6     7        8     9                   10    11          12

  **TASK                                   **TASK                                               
  2**                                      1, B**                                               

                                                                                                

                 2^nd^                                    [Workshop]{.mark}         []{.mark}   
                 Data                                                                           

                                                                                                
  -------- ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ------------------- ----- ----------- -----

### Work Plan

**[Task #1]{.underline}** -- Hypothesis development, refinement and
product definition.

**Task Summary and Objectives**

A\) The first objective is to develop hypotheses, approaches and
collaborators for earth system science data collection/ interpretation/
presentation to be used as direction for the pilot study.

B\) The second objective is to define and present, in preliminary but
new and creative formats, the value added by applying an earth system
science approach to Great Lakes nearshore issues learned in the pilot
effort. The outcome will be a template for conducting additional earth
system science studies and analysis based on interdisciplinary datasets
as a template for other areas and other issues in the Great Lakes.

**Work To Be Undertaken**

-   Convene regional meeting of USGS Great Lakes researchers, with
    stakeholders and potential collaborators for nearshore studies
    before and after the field and data analysis effort (Task #2).

-   Write meeting reports with recommendations for USGS integrated
    research focus and products including stakeholder and collaborator
    perspectives and apply outcome to implementing the pilot field study
    site selection, research focus and product goals.

-   Develop additional syntheses through face-to-face meetings.

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   Define key elements of successful earth system science as applied to
    nearshore issues

    **Planned Outreach**

-   Assess the desire and need for a Regional Science Advisory
    Committee, a small standing committee of internal and external
    scientists that would provide guidance, support and collaboration
    for USGS integrated research in the Great Lakes.

-   

-   Assure ongoing interaction and dialog with USGS Great Lakes
    Coordinator; include coordinator in face-to-face project meetings

-   Meet with stakeholders to discuss preliminary results and planned
    products.

**Preliminary** **Task 1 Budget** **Estimate: First year Second Year**

Coordinating Committee salary 6-8 @ 2pp ea \$30K \$30K

[Regional meeting with]{.underline} [collaborators, stakeholders
\$30K]{.underline} [\$30K]{.underline}

Total \$60K \$60K

**[Task #2]{.underline} --** Hypothesis testing, field observations,
preliminary linkage and database development.

**Task Summary and Objectives**

Conduct short-term interdisciplinary USGS-led study of fish habitat and
nearshore recreational water quality as they might be influenced by
short- and long-term changes in water level and climate. The first
objective is to develop a linked data set, and a linked interpretation
of biological, hydrological, geological and land use processes in the
pilot area to use in assessing the preliminary hypotheses developed in
Task #1. The second objective is to explore methods for
interdisciplinary field data collection, coordinated database
development, data analysis and data presentation. Although exploratory,
results are expected to be useful in developing a conceptual model of
the linkages for use by resource manages in assessing earth system
science effects of change (climate, lake level, development, discharge,
erosion, etc.)

**Work To Be Undertaken and Description of Methods and Procedures**

-   Collect retrospective data.

-   Collect short-term, small scale interdisciplinary dataset at the
    same temporal and spatial scales (approx. 1 month of field work; we
    anticipate the distal extent of study area is 4 km offshore or water
    depth of 12 m, onland a few 10s to 100s of meters from shore).
    Employ approach in which all researchers participate in both
    disciplinary and interdisciplinary data collection efforts, to
    foster interdisciplinary thinking, discussion and ideas.

-   Interdisciplinary data collections may include:

    -   High resolution geomorphic and geologic mapping of coastal and
        benthic habitat/groundwater aquifers including
        bathymetric/coastal LIDAR (EEARL?).

    -   Geologic studies of sediment dynamics toward predicting
        substrate/habitat response to change events.

    -   Biologic assessment of fish and invertebrate communities and
        their response to changing sediment dynamics and ground water
        regimes.

    -   Hydrologic studies of ground water-surface water flow dynamics
        and their potential to impact fish habitats and microbial
        ecology and nearshore water quality.

    -   Studies of spatial and temporal changes in ground and surface
        water chemistry in relation to water quality for fish habitat
        and human recreation.

    -   Analysis of ecology of water and sediment borne microorganisms
        impacting fish habitat and recreational water quality.

    -   Assessment of coastal land use change using photogrammetry and
        retrospective data analysis.

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   Perform multivariate data analysis with goal of understanding
    interdisciplinary linkages.

-   Produce temporal and GIS-based interdisciplinary data synthesis and
    presentation.

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   Analyze data from first round of data collection; determine data
    gaps, linked and indicator variables; discuss and refine field
    collection protocols; develop new hypotheses and propose new
    methodologies. This activity will include face-to-face investigator
    meetings, coordinated examination and analysis of data sets, and
    coordinated structuring of databases and GIS coverages.
    Interpretations of interdisciplinary analyses would be enhanced and
    facilitated by shared post docs and graduate students.

-   Initiate development of journal articles based on research, to be
    published in Second or later FY.

-   Develop preliminary synthesis of USGS earth system science as
    applied to nearshore fish habitat and recreational water quality
    issues. Summarize how integrated datasets, developed from
    coordinated field protocols and coordinated data analysis, generate
    new understanding of linkages among nearshore processes.

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   **Planned Outreach**

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   Lead special session at annual meeting of International Association
    of Great Lakes Research (IAGLR).

-   Meet with stakeholders to discuss preliminary results and planned
    products.

-   Develop project website for communicating data and research
    discussion

-   Generate abstracts and preliminary reports

-   Draft interdisciplinary database in GIS format

**Preliminary Task 2 Budget Estimate: First year Second Year**

[Extra Staffing]{.underline}

Earth System Science trained Postdoc \$50k \$50k

Database and GIS development (senior analyst) \$50k \$50k\
**Sub total** **\$100k** **\$100k**

[Field studies]{.underline}

Geomorphic and geologic mapping of substrate \$40k \$10k\
Bathymetric/coastal LIDAR (EEARL) \$25k\
Photogrammetry \$10k\
Analysis of land use change \$10k \$10k

Bluff, coast, and nearshore sediment dynamics \$25k \$25k\
Ground water/surface water character and dynamics \$25k \$25k\
Ground and surface water chemistry influencing habitat \$25k \$25k\
Fish and habitat response to physical change \$25k \$25k

Coastal and wetland ecosystem response to change \$25k \$25k\
Coastal microbial ecology and response to change \$25k \$25k\
**Sub total** **\$210k \$195k**

[Product and information development\
]{.underline}Project coordinating and science integration meetings \$15k
\$15k\
GIS applications \$30k \$30k\
Publications/Web site development \$10k \$10k\
**Sub total \$55k \$55k**

**Operations subtotal \$365k \$350k**

USGS research staffing estimate (8 co-PI's \~ half time @ \~ \$50k)
**\$400k \$400k**

**Grand Total \$765k \$750k**

**Potential Collaborators** (Initial list, in alphabetical order)

Great Lakes Protection Fund

Great Lakes Fishery Commission

NOAA

Regional Water Management Agencies

US Fish and Wildlife Service

US Army Corps of Engineers

US EPA

Sea Grant

State DNR's

The Nature Conservancy

**Potential Clients** (Initial list, in alphabetical order)

Great Lakes Fishery Commission

Great Lakes Commission

International Joint Commission

National Park Service

Public interest groups, Local and Regional

Regional Water Management Agencies

US Fish and Wildlife Service

US Army Corps of Engineers

US EPA

State DNR's