**1. Project Summary**

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| **Project Lead:** Paul Hirschberg                                     |
|                                                                       |
| **Last Gate:** Not Applicable at this time.                           |
|                                                                       |
| **Gate Disposition:** Not applicable at this time.                    |
|                                                                       |
| **Current Stage Participation (Total FTE Hours)**: 20                 |
|                                                                       |
| **Note #1: This project is an "umbrella" project that will have       |
| future "sub-projects" fall underneath the statement of need.**        |
|                                                                       |
| **Note #2: This project is expected to move through only Gates 1 and  |
| 2 before closing.**                                                   |
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2\. Solution Description

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| Statement of Need Summary:                                            |
|                                                                       |
| Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of prediction, including  |
| the weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological (hydrometeorological) |
| predictions germane to the NWS mission. According to the National     |
| Research Council's (NRC's) Report, *Completing the Forecast.          |
| Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions     |
| Using Weather and Climate* Forecasts (NRC, 2006), "... effective      |
| communication of uncertainty information in hydrometeorological       |
| forecasts benefits users' decisions" (e.g., AMS, 2002; NRC, 2003b). A |
| need exists for NWS to comprehensively address user requirements for  |
| generating and communicating new and improved forecast uncertainty    |
| products, information, and services. NWS HQ has formed a steering     |
| team to address these needs by various users and determine the best   |
| ways to proceed with these efforts.                                   |
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3\. Planned Activities

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| **[During Next Stage]{.underline}:**                                  |
|                                                                       |
| -   Develop CONOPS and Operational Requirements with input from the   |
|     NURO survey results, NFUSE recommendations, and AMS Ad Hoc        |
|     Committee                                                         |
|                                                                       |
| -   Formulate a plan to address the users uncertainty                 |
|     needs/requirements.                                               |
|                                                                       |
| -   Project Plan will be updated for Stage 2                          |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| **[Beyond Next Stage]{.underline}:**                                  |
|                                                                       |
| NA                                                                    |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+

***4. Performance Measures** (Reference "Performance Measures Guidance"
included in the Project Plan Author's Guide).*

  -------------- ---------------------------- ----------------- ------------------
  **At End of    **Performance Measure**      **Current Value   **Planned
  Next Stage**                                (Baseline)**      Resultant Value**

                 None                                           

                                                                

                                                                

                                                                

                                                                

  **At Project   TBD                                            
  Completion**                                                  

                                                                

                                                                

                                                                
  -------------- ---------------------------- ----------------- ------------------

5.  **Organizational Roles and Responsibilities:**

  ---------- ------------------ ------------------ ------------- ---------------------
  **During   **Organization**   **Lead**           **Role**      **Responsibility**
  Next                                                           
  Stage**                                                        

             NWS OST            Lee                IWT and       Lead development of
                                Anderson/Douglas   Project Lead  OSIP documentation,
                                Hilderbrand                      project coordination,
                                                                 product assessment,
                                                                 and scientific
                                                                 leadership.

             NWS OST            Tim Howard         IWT member    Participate in
                                (OST/SEC security                development of OSIP
                                officer), Bob                    documentation,
                                Glahn, , Andrea                  project coordination,
                                Bleistein, Paul                  and assessments.
                                Hirschberg                       

             NWS Office of      John Sokich        IWT member    Participate in
             Strategic Planning                                  development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.

             NWS OCWWS HSD      Frank Richards,    IWT member    Participate in
                                Mary Mullusky                    development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.

             NWS NCEP           Zoltan Toth        IWT member    Participate in
                                                                 development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.

             NWS ISST           Greg Mann          IWT Member    Participate in
                                                                 development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.

             NWS CSD            TBD                IWT member    Participate in
                                                                 development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.

             NWS OHD            TBD                IWT Member    

             NWS ARH            James Partain      IWT member    Participate in
                                                                 development of OSIP
                                                                 documentation,
                                                                 project coordination,
                                                                 and assessments.
  ---------- ------------------ ------------------ ------------- ---------------------

**5. Organizational Roles and Responsibilities:**

  ---------- ------------------ ---------------- ------------- ---------------------
  **Beyond   **Organization**   **Lead**         **Role**      **Responsibility**
  Next                                                         
  Stage**                                                      

             NA                                                

                                                               

                                                               

                                                               

                                                               

                                                               

                                                               
  ---------- ------------------ ---------------- ------------- ---------------------

**6. Milestones and Schedule** *\[Double click table to enable excel
worksheet.\]*

![](media/image1.wmf)

**7. Resource Requirements** *\[Double click table to enable excel
worksheet. Cells with zeros will automatically sum as entries are made
in blank cells.\]*

![](media/image2.wmf)**8. Acquisition Strategy:**

  ---------- ---------------------------- -------------------------------------
  **During   **Item**                     **Strategy**
  Next                                    
  Stage**                                 

             None.                        Not applicable at this time.

  **Beyond   TBD                          TBD
  Next                                    
  Stage**                                 
  ---------- ---------------------------- -------------------------------------

**9. Assumptions and Constraints**

+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
| * | **                      | **Description**                       |
| * | Assumption/Constraint** |                                       |
| D |                         |                                       |
| u |                         |                                       |
| r |                         |                                       |
| i |                         |                                       |
| n |                         |                                       |
| g |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
|   |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| N |                         |                                       |
| e |                         |                                       |
| x |                         |                                       |
| t |                         |                                       |
| S |                         |                                       |
| t |                         |                                       |
| a |                         |                                       |
| g |                         |                                       |
| e |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   | The task is fully       | For development of stage 2 documents, |
|   | staffed.                | and other related topics, personnel   |
|   |                         | will be needed. NWS Employees will    |
|   |                         | work on these project parts to reach  |
|   |                         | the milestones identified in section  |
|   |                         | 6. Staff reductions or loss of work   |
|   |                         | hours may cause inadequacies for the  |
|   |                         | planned work.                         |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
| * |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| B |                         |                                       |
| e |                         |                                       |
| y |                         |                                       |
| o |                         |                                       |
| n |                         |                                       |
| d |                         |                                       |
| N |                         |                                       |
| e |                         |                                       |
| x |                         |                                       |
| t |                         |                                       |
| S |                         |                                       |
| t |                         |                                       |
| a |                         |                                       |
| g |                         |                                       |
| e |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
| * |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   | NA                      |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|   |                         |                                       |
+---+-------------------------+---------------------------------------+

**10. Risk Assessment and Mitigation:**

  -------- ----------- -------------------- ----------------- ------------ ------------------------
           **Type**    **Description**      **Probability**   **Impact**   **Mitigation Strategy**

  During                                                                   
  Next                                                                     
  Stage                                                                    

           Technical   Development problems Low               High         This event may cause
                       (e.g., software and                                 delays in further
                       new products).                                      testing and
                                                                           implementation. One
                                                                           mitigation strategy is
                                                                           to quickly troubleshoot
                                                                           the issues and make
                                                                           adjustments to ensure
                                                                           system is improved.

           Schedule    None                                                

           Resources   Sufficient personnel Medium            Medium       Try to obtain other
                       to work on planning                                 personnel to help with
                       and documents.                                      tasks or make workload
                                                                           adjustments to ensure
                                                                           work is completed.
  -------- ----------- -------------------- ----------------- ------------ ------------------------