Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 2/4/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** RS5007

RS5007

**Russian Federation**

**Oilseeds and Products**

**Sunflowerseed Update**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Allan Mustard

American Embassy, Moscow

**Prepared by:**

Yelena Vassilieva and Dorothy Adams

**Report Highlights:**

Sunflowerseed production reached 4.54 million metric tons (mmt), only
2.6 percent less than last year. Domestic crushing is forecast to
increase to 4.25 mmt and will result in increased production of
sunflowerseed meal and oil. Sunflowerseed meal exports are forecast at
last year\'s level, while domestic consumption will increase to 1.3 mmt.
There will be a significant increase in industrial domestic consumption
of sunflowerseed oil due to decreased imports of palm oil.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Moscow \[RS1\]

\[RS\]

Table of Contents

[Sunflowerseeds 3](#sunflowerseeds)

[Production 3](#production)

[Crush 3](#crush)

[Trade 3](#trade)

[Table 1. PSD, Sunflowerseeds, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
3](#table-1.-psd-sunflowerseeds-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Sunflowerseed Meal 4](#sunflowerseed-meal)

[Table 2. PSD, Sunflowerseed Meal, 1,000 Metric Tons
4](#table-2.-psd-sunflowerseed-meal-1000-metric-tons)

[Sunflowerseed Oil 4](#sunflowerseed-oil)

[Table 3. PSD, Sunflowerseed Oil, 1,000 Metric Tons
5](#table-3.-psd-sunflowerseed-oil-1000-metric-tons)

# Sunflowerseeds

## Production

Based on preliminary official Rosstat data, Russia harvested 4.74 mmt of
sunflowerseeds on a sown area of 4.81 million hectares in MY 2004, the
second largest crop in the last 15 years. Due to favorable weather
conditions in October and first half of November 2004, losses during
harvesting were low and forecast harvested area is increased to 4.7
million hectares, while average yield remains at last year's level.

## Crush

Crush domestic consumption is forecast to increase to 4.25 mmt. Stable
high domestic demand for vegetable oil and increasing domestic and
foreign demand for sunflowerseed meal has made this industry profitable
for investors during the last three years and crushing capacity has been
increased and modernized.

## Trade

Exports of sunflowerseeds are forecast to decrease to 200,000 metric
tons due to high domestic prices during the fall of 2004 and a twenty
percent export duty.

## Table 1. PSD, Sunflowerseeds, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ###### PSD Table    |     |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**         | **R |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | uss |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | ian |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | Fed |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | era |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | tio |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | n** |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**       | *   |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                     | *Oi |       |       |       | HA)   |       |
|                     | lse |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                     | ed, |       |       |       | MT)   |       |
|                     | Sun |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | flo |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | wer |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | see |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | d** |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                     | 2   | Re    | 2003  | Est   | 2004  | For   |
|                     | 002 | vised |       | imate |       | ecast |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                     | U   | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                     | SDA | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                     | Of  | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                     | fic | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                     | ial | New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
|                     | \   |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | [Ol |       |       |       |       |       |
|                     | d\] |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year       |     | 09    |       | 09    |       | 09    |
| Begin**             |     | /2002 |       | /2003 |       | /2004 |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Planted        | 4   | 4117  | 4850  | 5327  | 4500  | 4800  |
|                     | 117 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested      | 3   | 3798  | 4850  | 4870  | 4400  | 4700  |
|                     | 798 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks    | 5   | 5     | 25    | 25    | 50    | 50    |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production          | 3   | 3685  | 4850  | 4870  | 4400  | 4740  |
|                     | 685 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MY Imports          | 7   | 5     | 9     | 5     | 10    | 10    |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MY Imp. From U.S.   | 0   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MY Imp. From the EC | 0   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY        | 3   | 3695  | 4884  | 4900  | 4460  | 4800  |
|                     | 697 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MY Exports          | 200 | 200   | 350   | 350   | 275   | 200   |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MY Exp. to the EC   | 100 | 100   | 250   | 250   | 225   | 100   |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Crush Dom.          | 3   | 3300  | 4000  | 4000  | 3975  | 4250  |
| Consumption         | 300 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Food Use Dom.       | 102 | 100   | 260   | 270   | 100   | 200   |
| Consump.            |     |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Feed,Seed,Waste     | 70  | 70    | 224   | 230   | 90    | 100   |
| Dm.Cn.              |     |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.          | 3   | 3470  | 4484  | 4500  | 4165  | 4550  |
| Consumption         | 472 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks       | 25  | 25    | 50    | 50    | 20    | 50    |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  | 3   | 3695  | 4884  | 4900  | 4460  | 4800  |
|                     | 697 |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

# Sunflowerseed Meal

Meal and cake production is forecast at 1.65 mmt, meaning exports of
sunflowerseed cake will remain at 450,000 metric tons and domestic meal
consumption will increase to 1.2 mmt, used mostly in the poultry sector.

## Table 2. PSD, Sunflowerseed Meal, 1,000 Metric Tons

+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| ###### PSD Table    |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Country**         | **Ru  |       |      |       |        |       |
|                     | ssian |       |      |       |        |       |
|                     | Fe    |       |      |       |        |       |
|                     | derat |       |      |       |        |       |
|                     | ion** |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Commodity**       | **    |       |      |       | (1000  |       |
|                     | Meal, |       |      |       | MT)(PE |       |
|                     | Sunfl |       |      |       | RCENT) |       |
|                     | owers |       |      |       |        |       |
|                     | eed** |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
|                     | 2002  | Re    | 2003 | Est   | 2004   | For   |
|                     |       | vised |      | imate |        | ecast |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
|                     | USDA  | Post  | USDA | Post  | USDA   | Post  |
|                     | Off   | Est   | Offi | Est   | Of     | Est   |
|                     | icial | imate | cial | imate | ficial | imate |
|                     | \[    | \[    | \[O  | \[    | \      | \[    |
|                     | Old\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Market Year       |       | 09    |      | 09    |        | 09    |
| Begin**             |       | /2002 |      | /2003 |        | /2004 |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Crush               | 3300  | 3300  | 4000 | 4000  | 3975   | 4250  |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Extr. Rate,         | 0,385 | 0,385 | 0,39 | 0,39  | 0,39   | 0,388 |
| 999.9999            |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks    | 0     | 0     | 20   | 20    | 20     | 20    |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Production          | 1270  | 1270  | 1560 | 1560  | 1550   | 1650  |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| MY Imports          | 17    | 0     | 45   | 45    | 45     | 0     |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| MY Imp. from U.S.   | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| MY Imp. from the EC | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY        | 1287  | 1270  | 1625 | 1625  | 1615   | 1670  |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| MY Exports          | 169   | 10    | 450  | 450   | 440    | 450   |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| MY Exp. to the EC   | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Industrial Dom.     | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
| Consum              |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Food Use Dom.       | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
| Consump.            |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Feed Waste Dom.     | 1098  | 1240  | 1155 | 1155  | 1155   | 1200  |
| Consum              |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.          | 1098  | 1240  | 1155 | 1155  | 1155   | 1200  |
| Consumption         |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Ending Stocks       | 20    | 20    | 20   | 20    | 20     | 20    |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  | 1287  | 1270  | 1625 | 1625  | 1615   | 1670  |
+---------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+

# Sunflowerseed Oil

Production of sunflowerseed oil will increase to 1.7 mmt and most of
this oil will be used domestically. Food domestic consumption is
forecast at 1.25 mmt, only slightly more than last year, while
industrial consumption is forecast to increase to 410,000 metric tons.

December's tsunami in Indonesia and Malaysia, Russia's main suppliers,
will negatively affect palm oil trade. In MY 2003, Russia imported
almost 300,000 metric tons of palm oil from these two countries, or 33
percent of all oils and fats imports. The effect of the tsunami on total
palm oil trade is not yet clear, but it is doubtful that Russian
importers will be able to continue sourcing cheap imports from these
countries in MY 2004. Moreover, before the tsunami, the GOR increased
import duties on palm oil (See GAIN RS4064). Sunflowerseed oil will be
substituted for palm oil in a number of industries and the forecast for
domestic consumption of this product is raised.

## Table 3. PSD, Sunflowerseed Oil, 1,000 Metric Tons

+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| ###### PSD Table   |      |      |   |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| ####### Co         | *    |      |   |     |        |       |       |
| untry {#country-1} | *Rus |      |   |     |        |       |       |
|                    | sian |      |   |     |        |       |       |
|                    | Fede |      |   |     |        |       |       |
|                    | rati |      |   |     |        |       |       |
|                    | on** |      |   |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**      | **   |      |   |     |        | (1000 |       |
|                    | Oil, |      |   |     |        | MT    |       |
|                    | Sun  |      |   |     |        | )(PER |       |
|                    | flow |      |   |     |        | CENT) |       |
|                    | erse |      |   |     |        |       |       |
|                    | ed** |      |   |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
|                    | 2002 | Rev  | 2 |     | Es     | 2004  | For   |
|                    |      | ised | 0 |     | timate |       | ecast |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 3 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
|                    | USDA | Post | U |     | Post   | USDA  | Post  |
|                    | Offi | Esti | S |     | Es     | Off   | Est   |
|                    | cial | mate | D |     | timate | icial | imate |
|                    | \[O  | \[N  | A |     | \      | \[    | \[    |
|                    | ld\] | ew\] | O |     | [New\] | Old\] | New\] |
|                    |      |      | f |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | f |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | i |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | c |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | i |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | a |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | l |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | \ |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | [ |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | O |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | l |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | d |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | \ |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | ] |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year      |      | 09/  |   |     | 0      |       | 09    |
| Begin**            |      | 2002 |   |     | 9/2003 |       | /2004 |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Crush              | 3300 | 3300 | 4 |     | 4000   | 3975  | 4250  |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Extr. Rate,        | 0,39 | 0,39 | 0 |     | 0,395  | 0,395 | 0,4   |
| 999.9999           |      |      | , |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 3 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 9 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 5 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks   | 40   | 40   | 2 |     | 25     | 45    | 45    |
|                    |      |      | 5 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Production         | 1295 | 1295 | 1 |     | 1580   | 1570  | 1700  |
|                    |      |      | 5 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 8 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| MY Imports         | 192  | 170  | 1 |     | 160    | 160   | 160   |
|                    |      |      | 7 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 8 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| MY Imp. from U.S.  | 0    | 0    | 0 |     | 0      | 0     | 0     |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| MY Imp. from the   | 0    | 0    | 0 |     | 0      | 0     | 0     |
| EC                 |      |      |   |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY       | 1527 | 1505 | 1 |     | 1765   | 1775  | 1905  |
|                    |      |      | 7 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 8 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 3 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| MY Exports         | 180  | 155  | 1 |     | 170    | 170   | 170   |
|                    |      |      | 3 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 6 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| MY Exp. to the EC  | 0    | 0    | 0 |     | 0      | 0     | 0     |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Industrial Dom.    | 300  | 300  | 3 |     | 310    | 310   | 410   |
| Consum             |      |      | 1 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Food Use Dom.      | 1002 | 1005 | 1 |     | 1220   | 1235  | 1250  |
| Consump.           |      |      | 2 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 7 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 2 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Feed Waste Dom.    | 20   | 20   | 2 |     | 20     | 20    | 30    |
| Consum             |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.         | 1322 | 1325 | 1 |     | 1550   | 1565  | 1690  |
| Consumption        |      |      | 6 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 0 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 2 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks      | 25   | 25   | 4 |     | 45     | 40    | 45    |
|                    |      |      | 5 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION | 1527 | 1505 | 1 |     | 1765   | 1775  | 1905  |
|                    |      |      | 7 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 8 |     |        |       |       |
|                    |      |      | 3 |     |        |       |       |
+--------------------+------+------+---+-----+--------+-------+-------+

#