**Draft 5/14/08**

**[Alternative Proposal for FY 11-15 Planning and
Programming]{.underline}**

**[Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM)]{.underline}**

**Title of Activity:** Enhanced Climate (Reference) Observing System

**Program/Capability/Theme:** Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM)
Program; Climate System Observations (OBS) capability: Climate Themes:
*Climate Services Infrastructure, Sector assessment and Application,
Regional Applications of a Climate Service*, and contributes to
*Verification and Quantification of Climate Forcing Emissions and Their
Impacts* and *Advancing Predictions and Projections of High Impact
Phenomena.*

**Why (Statement of Need/Economic Benefits):** Predictions of the
earth's climate system require improved historical analysis based on
climate quality observations. Climate reference measurements underpin
modeling and prediction capabilities supporting decision makers
preparing for and responding to climate change impacts. Many reports
identify the critical need for climate observations: NRC 1999 report
Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems underscored the deteriorated
condition of the USHCN stations. Climate observing systems contribute to
the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) and the Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Users include: (1) the private
sector (such as the energy, agricultural, and retail industries) needing
high quality climate data in near-real time to monitor conditions that
directly impact their company's financial health; (2) utility managers
(such as water managers) in need of timely and easy access to quality
observations to plan; (3) climate research and modeling scientists
studying and monitoring climate variability, change, trends, and
impacts; and (4) weather forecasters who need the data to improve their
forecast accuracy. Society and the economy will benefit from improved
accuracy of plausible scenarios of future climate trends, which will
help protect lives and property, reduce climate impact investment costs,
and lead to better monitoring, understanding, and planned responses to
climate variation and change. This alternative promotes an approach to
climate observations is a focused strategy toward selective closing of
national and global observing gaps of essential climate variables (ECV)
most needed to evaluate and define climate forcing processes and
feedback mechanisms and other climate variation and change analyses and
research activities. Observing System Experiments (OSEs) will optimize
the design. This systematic approach capitalizes on potential synergies
and realizes the full potential return on investment while reducing
observational gaps and operating costs.

**What (Proposed Actions and Deliverables):**

Identify critical climate observational gaps, procure and calibration of
sensors, installation, and data processing, archive, and access.
Procurement and procedures will follow other successful projects, such
as USCRN. This will minimize instrument and processing biases and result
in lower purchase and life cycle operations and maintenance costs. USCRN
and USHCN-M observing systems are part of this network of reference
climate observing systems being implemented under separate budget
profiles. A priority focus of this alternative will be on implementing
an operational SEBN and designing an operational reference radiosonde.

*Atmosphere*: (in coordination with WWS integrated observations
activities)

-   FY10-15 Design and install a Surface Energy Budget Network (SEBN) of
    at least 28 standardized configured stations, 20 of which will be
    located at locations of existing research based solar and surface
    energy balance observing systems (SURFRAD, STAR, and/or GEWEX)

-   FY11-15 Prototype, test, and move to production Reference
    Radiosonde. Operationally implement dual launch capability
    collocated at a minimum of ten NWS RRS operational U.S. sites to
    address confidence issues associated with vertical atmospheric
    temperature and water vapor measurements from standard radiosonde
    and satellite-based measurements.

-   FY12-17 Upgrade about 73 Global Surface Network (GSN) and about 30
    Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) sites to GRUAN sites as part of the
    U.S. Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

-   FY 13-TBD US GCOS - High Elevation and Tropical CRN-like sites.

*Ocean:* (refer to Arctic Watch alternative for integration with Arctic
observing requirements):

-   FY10-15 Complete and maintain global ocean observing system network
    components, according to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
    Implementation Plan.

-   Develop and deploy capability to monitor ocean acidification
    (coordinate with Eco Goal)

-   FY11-15 Develop and deploy increased observation and monitoring
    capabilities/techniques for sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved
    oxygen (tie into GHG-CO2 COM Alt ocean carbon measurements), and sea
    level rise- (tie into COM Arctic Watch and C&T GEO) using existing
    ocean platforms and satellites (Satellite Sub-goal and SSV)

*Other:* FY 11-15

-   [Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE)/Observing System
    Evaluations (OSE):]{.underline} A collaborative activity with the
    other programs: EMP and WWS to close global climate observational
    gaps. Conduct as required for GSN, GRUAN, U.S. RRS locations, High
    Elevation and Tropical CRN-like, as well as verify GOOS plans as
    required.

-   *[Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Climate Reference Observations Data
    Integration]{.underline}:* Develop/implement in coordination with
    CRM and EMP programs.

[Associated Deliverables:]{.underline}

-   Develop/Implement ingest, inventory, QC processing, metadata,
    archive, and access procedures & protocols, & documentation.

-   Indentify and establish operational procedures and capability for
    traceable calibration standards for sensors where available.

-   Design observing stations (as applicable), procure and calibrate
    sensors, and procure support equipment, and install/deploy.

-   Provide Life Cycle Operations and Maintenance (O&M).

**Resources Needed:**

*Funding directed towards: Contracts (OSEs), equipment, ship time, and
personnel. Observing systems and data integration inherently have
recurring life cycle O&M costs.*

+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Major Cost Categories | **FY | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| (\$K)**                 | 09   | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY |
|                         | PB** | 1   | 1   | 1   | 1   | 1   | 1   |
|                         |      | 0** | 1** | 2** | 3** | 4** | 5** |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **FY 09 PB** PROFILE    | **   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| (base funding)          | 56,9 | *68 | *67 | *69 | *67 | *67 | *67 |
|                         | 73** | ,52 | ,72 | ,82 | ,32 | ,32 | ,32 |
| *Only current GOOS      |      | 0** | 0** | 0** | 0** | 0** | 0** |
| (less Arctic \$s) and   |      |     |     |     |     |     |     |
| GCOS. USCRN & USHCN-M   |      |     |     |     |     |     |     |
| have separate budgets)* |      |     |     |     |     |     |     |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                         |      |     |     |     |     |     |     |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **100% Requirement      |      |     | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| TOTAL**                 |      |     | *19 | *25 | *34 | *39 | *46 |
|                         |      |     | ,57 | ,86 | ,07 | ,22 | ,62 |
|                         |      |     | 3** | 3** | 3** | 3** | 3** |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Total**               | **   | *   | 87, | 95, | 1   | 1   | 1   |
|                         | 56,9 | *68 | 293 | 683 | 01, | 06, | 09, |
|                         | 73** | ,52 |     |     | 393 | 543 | 943 |
|                         |      | 0** |     |     |     |     |     |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **DELTA** (100% minus   |      |     | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| FY09 PB)                |      |     | *19 | *25 | *34 | *39 | *46 |
|                         |      |     | ,57 | ,86 | ,07 | ,22 | ,62 |
|                         |      |     | 3** | 3** | 3** | 3** | 3** |
+-------------------------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+

**Who and Where (Execution Plan):**

Execution is the primary responsibility of the COM program, specifically
NCDC/US GCOS, ESRL/ATDD, and the OAR Office of Climate Observations
(OCO).

Broad support and coordination/collaboration on planning and
implementation include: OAR Office of Climate Observations (OCO), ESRL
and ARL/ATDD, PMEL, AOML, NESDIS NCDC, NODC, and STAR, NWS, RCCs, State
Climatologists, NOAA Regional Teams, NOAA COOP Institutes, UCAR.NCAR,
NASA, CRM and CSD programs, as well as Ecosystem and C&T goals, MS MObI
Sub-goal EMP and IOS.

**When (Schedule and Milestones):**

+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| **Atmospheric**            | * | **  | **  | **  | * | **  | **  |
|                            | * | FY1 | FY1 | FY1 | * | FY1 | FY1 |
|                            | F | 0** | 1** | 2** | F | 4** | 5** |
|                            | Y |     |     |     | Y |     |     |
|                            | 0 |     |     |     | 1 |     |     |
|                            | 9 |     |     |     | 3 |     |     |
|                            | * |     |     |     | * |     |     |
|                            | * |     |     |     | * |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *Surface Energy Budget     |   | Pro | Dep | X   | X | X   | Co  |
| Network (SEBN)* -- 28      |   | tot | loy |     |   |     | mpl |
| sites. Upgrade U.S. BSRN   |   | ype | St  |     |   |     | ete |
| (SURFRAD/NOAA STAR) & U.S. |   | &   | art |     |   |     |     |
| GEWEX, install 6 new to    |   | O   |     |     |   |     |     |
| meet benchmark standards.  |   | T&E |     |     |   |     |     |
| (FY09 PDM approved)        |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *U. S. Reference           |   |     | Pro | Dep | X | X   | Co  |
| Radiosonde Network*        |   |     | tot | loy |   |     | mpl |
|                            |   |     | ype | St  |   |     | ete |
| \~10 U.S. sites (# TBD by  |   |     | &   | art |   |     |     |
| OSE/OSSE)                  |   |     | O   |     |   |     |     |
|                            |   |     | T&E |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *Global Reference          |   |     |     | Dep | X | X   | Co  |
| Radiosonde Upper Air       |   |     |     | loy |   |     | mpl |
| Network (GRUAN)* \~30      |   |     |     | St  |   |     | ete |
| non-U.S. sites (# TBD by   |   |     |     | art |   |     | FY  |
| OSE/OSSE)                  |   |     |     |     |   |     | 17  |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *Global Surface Network    |   |     | Dep | X   | X | X   | Co  |
| (GSN)*                     |   |     | loy |     |   |     | mpl |
|                            |   |     | St  |     |   |     | ete |
| \~ 75 non-U.S. sites (#    |   |     | art |     |   |     | FY  |
| TBD by OSE/OSSE)           |   |     |     |     |   |     | 17  |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *U. S. GCOS* - High        |   |     |     | Dep | X | X   | TBD |
| Elevation and Tropical     |   |     |     | loy |   |     |     |
| USCRN-like configured U.S. |   |     |     | St  |   |     |     |
| & non-U.S. locations       |   |     |     | art |   |     |     |
| (Total \# depends on       |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| funding)                   |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| **Oceans (GOOS)**          |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Tide Gauges (new           | X | Co  | AK  | ?   | ? | ?   |     |
| requirements in Alaska     |   | mpl | ?   |     |   |     |     |
| YTBD)                      |   | ete |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Tropical Moored Buoys      | X | X   | X   | X   | C |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | o |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | m |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | - |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | p |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | l |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | e |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | t |     |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     | e |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Ocean Reference Stations   | X | X   | X   | X   | X | Co  |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     |   | mpl |     |
|                            |   |     |     |     |   | ete |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Arctic Ocean Region -      | X | X   | X   | X   | X | x   | Co  |
| Deploy New and Replace     |   |     |     |     |   |     | mpl |
| (most buoys annually)      |   |     |     |     |   |     | ete |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Monitor Ocean              |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| Acidification              |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Monitor SSS, O2 and SLR    |   |     | X   | X   | X | X   | X   |
| (add to existing ocean     |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| platforms)                 |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| Observing System           |   |     | X   | x   | x | x   |     |
| Experiments (OSEs) as      |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| needed                     |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+
| *Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere  | X | X   | X   | X   | X | X   |     |
| Climate Reference          |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| Observations Data          |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
| Integration - Ongoing*     |   |     |     |     |   |     |     |
+----------------------------+---+-----+-----+-----+---+-----+-----+

**Benefits Achieved/Forgone:**

In-situ observations from these climate (reference) observing systems
will be used to increase the value and utility of other more spatially
comprehensive observing networks, including satellites, in-situ, and
remote based observing systems.

-   Identify and reduce biases from data collected by other existing
    in-situ observing systems that were designed for purposes other than
    climate.

-   Remove biases from data collected by existing observing systems that
    were designed for purposes other than climate.

-   *In-situ* climate focused reference and benchmark observations can
    be used for inter-comparison with satellite measurements.

-   Maintain a consistent long term climate record.

-   Improve quality and quantity of climate observations, analyses, and
    interpretation capabilities to determine why climate changes are
    occurring.

-   Implement more integrated and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate
    quality reference observations.

*Foregone*: Climate observational gaps not closed, less value/utility of
other observations for climate uses.

*Risk*: Low technological risk.

*Barriers*: Primarily funding.

*Dependencies*: Collaboration with other goals and programs, and
NOAA/non-NOAA agencies.

Performance Measure(s):

+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Climate Performance          | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| Measure:** *Implement/Sustain  | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY |
| Enhanced Climate (Reference)   | 10  | 11  | 12  | 13  | 14  | 1   |
| Observing System (Cumulative   | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | 5** |
| Total)* **\*\***               | rge | rge | rge | rge | rge |     |
|                                | t** | t** | t** | t** | t** | *   |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | *Ta |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | rge |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | t** |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **With Increase**              |     |     |     |     |     |     |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Without Increase**           |     |     |     |     |     |     |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+

**\*\*** Based on a total of 14 observing systems (Atmosphere and Ocean)
being 100% completed by FY 14. See Schedules and Milestones above.

FYI: Provides details of 100% Requirements

+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Major Cost          | *   | ** | **FY | ** | *   | *   | *   |
| Categories (\$K)**    | *FY | FY | 11** | FY | *FY | *FY | *FY |
|                       | 09  | 10 |      | 12 | 1   | 1   | 1   |
|                       | P   | ** |      | ** | 3** | 4** | 5** |
|                       | B** |    |      |    |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **FY 09 PB** PROFILE  | *   | ** | **   | ** | *   | *   | *   |
| (base funding)        | *56 | 68 | 67,7 | 69 | *67 | *67 | *67 |
|                       | ,97 | ,5 | 20** | ,8 | ,32 | ,32 | ,32 |
| *Only current GOOS    | 3** | 20 |      | 20 | 0** | 0** | 0** |
| budgets )less Arctic  |     | ** |      | ** |     |     |     |
| \$s) to include       |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| redirected \$s for    |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| Ocean Acidification   |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| and US GCOS.*         |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
|                       |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| *USCRN and USHCN-M    |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| have separate         |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| budgets*              |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **100% Requirement**  |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| (only systems listed  |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| above -- currently    |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
| have no \$s)          |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| SEBN (first priority) |     |    | 2    | 2  | 2,  | 2,  | 2,  |
|                       |     |    | ,500 | ,5 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
|                       |     |    |      | 00 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| Ref Radiosonde        |     |    | 2    | 2  | 2,  | 2,  | 2,  |
| (second priority)     |     |    | ,750 | ,7 | 750 | 750 | 750 |
|                       |     |    |      | 50 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| GSN/GRUAN             |     |    | 3    | 3  | 3,  | 3,  | 3,  |
|                       |     |    | ,426 | ,4 | 426 | 426 | 426 |
|                       |     |    |      | 26 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| High                  |     |    | 1    | 1  | 1,  | 1,  | 1,  |
| Elevation/Tropical    |     |    | ,200 | ,2 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
|                       |     |    |      | 00 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| SSS/O2 - Argo floats, |     |    | 1    | 2  | 2,  | 3,  | 4,  |
| Ship Days, etc        |     |    | ,220 | ,0 | 620 | 470 | 070 |
|                       |     |    |      | 10 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sea level rise        |     |    | 4    | 10 | 17, | 21, | 24, |
| (SLR) - Tide gauges,  |     |    | ,977 | ,4 | 577 | 877 | 677 |
| Argo floats, Ship     |     |    |      | 77 |     |     |     |
| Days, etc.            |     |    |      |    |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| OSEs                  | []{ |    | 1    | 1  | 1,  | 1,  | 1,  |
|                       | .ma |    | ,300 | ,3 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
|                       | rk} |    |      | 00 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| Atm/Ocean Data        |     |    | 2    | 2  | 2,  | 2,  | 2,  |
| Integration           |     |    | ,200 | ,2 | 700 | 700 | 700 |
|                       |     |    |      | 00 |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **100% Requirement    |     |    | **   | ** | *   | *   | *   |
| TOTAL**               |     |    | 19,5 | 25 | *34 | *39 | *46 |
|                       |     |    | 73** | ,8 | ,07 | ,22 | ,62 |
|                       |     |    |      | 63 | 3** | 3** | 3** |
|                       |     |    |      | ** |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Total**             | *   | ** | 87   | 95 | 1   | 1   | 1   |
|                       | *56 | 68 | ,293 | ,6 | 01, | 06, | 09, |
|                       | ,97 | ,5 |      | 83 | 393 | 543 | 943 |
|                       | 3** | 20 |      |    |     |     |     |
|                       |     | ** |      |    |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+
| **DELTA** (100% minus |     |    | **   | ** | *   | *   | *   |
| FY09 PB)              |     |    | 19,5 | 25 | *34 | *39 | *46 |
|                       |     |    | 73** | ,8 | ,07 | ,22 | ,62 |
|                       |     |    |      | 63 | 3** | 3** | 3** |
|                       |     |    |      | ** |     |     |     |
+-----------------------+-----+----+------+----+-----+-----+-----+