# Atmospheric Composition Breakout Session (12/03/02)

# Moderator: Phil DeCola (NASA)

# Overview: Dan Albritton (NOAA/AL)

## Where atmos comp fits in {#where-atmos-comp-fits-in .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Coupling between incoming solar radiation and atmos occurs through trace constituents {#coupling-between-incoming-solar-radiation-and-atmos-occurs-through-trace-constituents .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Understanding atm comp is first key step in {#understanding-atm-comp-is-first-key-step-in .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Directly characterizing human influence {#directly-characterizing-human-influence .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Constructing scenarios for decision making {#constructing-scenarios-for-decision-making .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Identifying win-win choices for addressing multiple issues: climate, air quality, ... {#identifying-win-win-choices-for-addressing-multiple-issues-climate-air-quality .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Key Characteristics {#key-characteristics .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Atmos shared by all {#atmos-shared-by-all .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Atmos comp changes are indicators (both harbingers and metrics) of many potential environmental issues {#atmos-comp-changes-are-indicators-both-harbingers-and-metrics-of-many-potential-environmental-issues .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### The atmos can be a forcing-agent "reservoir" for long-term (irreversible) changes. {#the-atmos-can-be-a-forcing-agent-reservoir-for-long-term-irreversible-changes. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Current challenges {#current-challenges .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Radiative forcing/Climate {#radiative-forcingclimate .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Gas and aerosol contributions {#gas-and-aerosol-contributions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Direct and Indirect {#direct-and-indirect .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Long and short residence times {#long-and-short-residence-times .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Global and regional scales {#global-and-regional-scales .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Long lived compounds have less unc than short lived. {#long-lived-compounds-have-less-unc-than-short-lived. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Aerosols have both positive and negative. {#aerosols-have-both-positive-and-negative. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Aerosols are more heterogeneous than gases. {#aerosols-are-more-heterogeneous-than-gases. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Ozone layer Recovery {#ozone-layer-recovery .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Observations are consistent with emissions decline, suggesting compliance with Montreal Protocol {#observations-are-consistent-with-emissions-decline-suggesting-compliance-with-montreal-protocol .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Where are the next policy relevant questions? {#where-are-the-next-policy-relevant-questions .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Ozone climate coulpling influences long term recovery {#ozone-climate-coulpling-influences-long-term-recovery .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Future ozone layer will not be past ozone layer. {#future-ozone-layer-will-not-be-past-ozone-layer. .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### New issues are arising (e.g., very short-lived gases) {#new-issues-are-arising-e.g.-very-short-lived-gases .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Uses of new chlorinated and brominated compounds {#uses-of-new-chlorinated-and-brominated-compounds .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

### Multiple Env Issues {#multiple-env-issues .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Research is beginning to address multiple issues (e.g., ACE-Asia) {#research-is-beginning-to-address-multiple-issues-e.g.-ace-asia .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Looking for win-win alternatives {#looking-for-win-win-alternatives .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Five Research Foci {#five-research-foci .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Aerosols {#aerosols .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### One of the major emphases of CCRI {#one-of-the-major-emphases-of-ccri .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Significant progress needed as emphasized in NACIP {#significant-progress-needed-as-emphasized-in-nacip .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Need better observational information {#need-better-observational-information .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### In a few key regions {#in-a-few-key-regions .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Using global remote sensing {#using-global-remote-sensing .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Link chemical and physical properties to radiative properties {#link-chemical-and-physical-properties-to-radiative-properties .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Couple observations with diagnostic and prognostic models {#couple-observations-with-diagnostic-and-prognostic-models .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Chemically Active Greenhouse Gases {#chemically-active-greenhouse-gases .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Preserve long term observational records {#preserve-long-term-observational-records .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Improving emissions and budgets {#improving-emissions-and-budgets .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Understanding trop ozone trends in past {#understanding-trop-ozone-trends-in-past .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Understanding upper trop water vapor and feedbacks {#understanding-upper-trop-water-vapor-and-feedbacks .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Regional Global Couplings {#regional-global-couplings .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### What is N Amercia doing down stream? What is Asia doing down stream? {#what-is-n-amercia-doing-down-stream-what-is-asia-doing-down-stream .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### What is the regional influence on global transport? {#what-is-the-regional-influence-on-global-transport .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Ozone layer Recovery {#ozone-layer-recovery-1 .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Preserve time series {#preserve-time-series .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Look at non-classical influences {#look-at-non-classical-influences .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Climate feedbacks {#climate-feedbacks .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Aircraft {#aircraft .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### New substances {#new-substances .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

### Multiple Environmental Issues {#multiple-environmental-issues .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Learn to do multiple issues {#learn-to-do-multiple-issues .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Observations and modeling {#observations-and-modeling .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### assessment {#assessment .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

## Overall Research Approach {#overall-research-approach .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Time line {#time-line .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Milestones {#milestones .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Fourth IPCC Assessment 2007 {#fourth-ipcc-assessment-2007 .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### 2006 Ozone layer assessment {#ozone-layer-assessment .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### US Assessment Products 2005-2006 {#us-assessment-products-2005-2006 .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Key Characteristics {#key-characteristics-1 .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Maintain and build monitoring capability {#maintain-and-build-monitoring-capability .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Develop new measurement capability {#develop-new-measurement-capability .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Construct science quality datasets {#construct-science-quality-datasets .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Build Partnerships {#build-partnerships .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

## Partners {#partners .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### National {#national .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### USGCRP/CCRI {#usgcrpccri .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### NACIP {#nacip .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### AQRS {#aqrs .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### IGAC {#igac .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### International {#international .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Products {#products .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### 21^st^ Century chemical baseline for Pacific Region {#st-century-chemical-baseline-for-pacific-region .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### where we expect most change {#where-we-expect-most-change .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Assessment of vulnerability of ecosystems to urban growth with a focus on food production {#assessment-of-vulnerability-of-ecosystems-to-urban-growth-with-a-focus-on-food-production .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Improved estimates of the indirect effects of aerosols {#improved-estimates-of-the-indirect-effects-of-aerosols .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### FY2006 If-then scenarios of emissions and radiative forcing {#fy2006-if-then-scenarios-of-emissions-and-radiative-forcing .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### 2006 "State of the Atmosphere Report" {#state-of-the-atmosphere-report .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### composition, ozone layer trends, etc {#composition-ozone-layer-trends-etc .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Special Challenges for the Future {#special-challenges-for-the-future .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Balancing near-term products with long-term payoffs {#balancing-near-term-products-with-long-term-payoffs .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Foster/organize research that elucidates multiple issues {#fosterorganize-research-that-elucidates-multiple-issues .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Craft decision tools that are timely and fully vetted {#craft-decision-tools-that-are-timely-and-fully-vetted .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Produce information for both national and international needs {#produce-information-for-both-national-and-international-needs .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Play our role in integrated atm scie, impacts, technology, and economic assessments {#play-our-role-in-integrated-atm-scie-impacts-technology-and-economic-assessments .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Rudimentary cost/benefit analysis {#rudimentary-costbenefit-analysis .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Commit to near-term understanding, without overcommitting about surprises and discoveries {#commit-to-near-term-understanding-without-overcommitting-about-surprises-and-discoveries .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

# Panelists

## Stephen Schwartz (BNL) {#stephen-schwartz-bnl .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### <ses@bnl.gov>

### <http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html> {#httpwww.ecd.bnl.govsteveschwartz.html .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Top Level Issues {#top-level-issues .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### How much, how fast will climate change? {#how-much-how-fast-will-climate-change .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Driven by atm comp {#driven-by-atm-comp .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Radiative forcing {#radiative-forcing .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Need prediction of future climate change {#need-prediction-of-future-climate-change .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Future rad forcing {#future-rad-forcing .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Climate sensitivity to change in rad forcing {#climate-sensitivity-to-change-in-rad-forcing .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Two methods {#two-methods .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Climate models evaluated on prior change {#climate-models-evaluated-on-prior-change .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Empirically from prior climate change {#empirically-from-prior-climate-change .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Either way must now prior changes with known and sufficiently small uncertainty. {#either-way-must-now-prior-changes-with-known-and-sufficiently-small-uncertainty. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Unc Principles {#unc-principles .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Current IPCC uncertainty (factor of 3) is not sufficient for policy planning purposes {#current-ipcc-uncertainty-factor-of-3-is-not-sufficient-for-policy-planning-purposes .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Implies the unc of forcing is 37%, inconsistent with physical understanding {#implies-the-unc-of-forcing-is-37-inconsistent-with-physical-understanding .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### How do we reduce the unc? {#how-do-we-reduce-the-unc .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Radiative Forcing from 1750 to 2000 {#radiative-forcing-from-1750-to-2000 .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Why unc so large {#why-unc-so-large .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Research Requirements {#research-requirements .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Past Change {#past-change .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Mass loading and chemical and microphysical properties of anthro erosols and geo distribution {#mass-loading-and-chemical-and-microphysical-properties-of-anthro-erosols-and-geo-distribution .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Relation between aeorosl loading an dradiative forcing {#relation-between-aeorosl-loading-an-dradiative-forcing .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Future Change {#future-change .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Future aerosols {#future-aerosols .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

### Draft Strategic Plan {#draft-strategic-plan .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Lacks focus and specificity {#lacks-focus-and-specificity .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### "improved" and "more accurate" {#improved-and-more-accurate .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Reg Pollution, Strat Ozone, Scale Couplings are secondary issues {#reg-pollution-strat-ozone-scale-couplings-are-secondary-issues .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Implications {#implications .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### If aerosol negative forcing is anywhere near the high end of the present unc range {#if-aerosol-negative-forcing-is-anywhere-near-the-high-end-of-the-present-unc-range .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Then total forcing over the industrial era is much smaller {#then-total-forcing-over-the-industrial-era-is-much-smaller .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### And Climate sensitivity is much greater than previously inferred {#and-climate-sensitivity-is-much-greater-than-previously-inferred .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Daniel Jacob (Harvard) {#daniel-jacob-harvard .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### 4 major challenges {#major-challenges .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### quantify the contributions from major geopolitical source regionas to global budgets of env important gases and erosols {#quantify-the-contributions-from-major-geopolitical-source-regionas-to-global-budgets-of-env-important-gases-and-erosols .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### quantifiy the role of intercont transport of poll on regional env degradation {#quantifiy-the-role-of-intercont-transport-of-poll-on-regional-env-degradation .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Understand the effects of air poll on climate and vice versa {#understand-the-effects-of-air-poll-on-climate-and-vice-versa .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Measure , understand, and predict long term trends in the oxidizing power of the atmos {#measure-understand-and-predict-long-term-trends-in-the-oxidizing-power-of-the-atmos .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### 2 general points {#general-points .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### satellite obs will revolutionize research over the next decade {#satellite-obs-will-revolutionize-research-over-the-next-decade .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### data starved to data rich field {#data-starved-to-data-rich-field .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### climate sensitivity issues are critical but don't neglect broader environmental issues {#climate-sensitivity-issues-are-critical-but-dont-neglect-broader-environmental-issues .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### a lot of co-benefits {#a-lot-of-co-benefits .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### feedbacks {#feedbacks .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### research approach overlap {#research-approach-overlap .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### attract broader community {#attract-broader-community .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

### Quantify contributions to global budgets {#quantify-contributions-to-global-budgets .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Have focused on bottom up approaches, source/sink inventories

#### Atmosphere doesn't lie, but models used to interpret do

#### Need to constrain with top down info from satellite obs and in-situ (aircraft) measurements

#### Document does not recognize essential role to be played by geostationary satellites, inverse modeling methods, chemical data assimilation, and error characterization

### Quantifying ITCT effects on regional env degradation {#quantifying-itct-effects-on-regional-env-degradation .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### The research approaches to this problem are very close to those needed to answer climate questions.

#### Atmospheric (aerosols, ozone) and Oceanic transport (metals and POPs)

#### Document: Need to bring in multimedia modeling 

### Air Pollutant -- Climate Linkage {#air-pollutant-climate-linkage .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Doc needs observational diagnostics of radiative and climate response (particularly the spatial heterogeneity of climate changes, understanding regional scale effects)

#### Is delta F useful? 

#### Need to look at climatic effects (meteorology) on air pollution (not just emissions). No one has applied a GCM to local air pollution.

### Long term trends in oxidizing power of atmosphere {#long-term-trends-in-oxidizing-power-of-atmosphere .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Need should be explicitly spelled out in the strategy

#### Need better 

##### global OH proxies {#global-oh-proxies .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### HOx/NOx/O~3~ chemistry {#hoxnoxo3-chemistry .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### emissions {#emissions .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Strat Trop Exchange

## William Brune (PSU) {#william-brune-psu .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Strengths of chapter {#strengths-of-chapter .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Strong conceptual framework (shared, indicators, reservoir) {#strong-conceptual-framework-shared-indicators-reservoir .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Outlines important process and uncertainties {#outlines-important-process-and-uncertainties .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Needs and Payoffs are fairly accurate {#needs-and-payoffs-are-fairly-accurate .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Points to important couplings across spatial and temporal scales {#points-to-important-couplings-across-spatial-and-temporal-scales .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Collects ongoing research efforts {#collects-ongoing-research-efforts .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Next Steps {#next-steps .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Provide better sense of priorities and sequencing {#provide-better-sense-of-priorities-and-sequencing .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Discovery driven studies {#discovery-driven-studies .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Balance long and short term {#balance-long-and-short-term .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Roadmap for using existing technologies to advance science while developing new technologies {#roadmap-for-using-existing-technologies-to-advance-science-while-developing-new-technologies .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Attempt to quantify payoffs and delivery dates {#attempt-to-quantify-payoffs-and-delivery-dates .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Provide a strategy for connecting across  {#provide-a-strategy-for-connecting-across .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Scales {#scales .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Disciplines {#disciplines .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Agencies {#agencies .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Issues v. Process Matrix {#issues-v.-process-matrix .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Links between Pollution and Climate are numerous {#links-between-pollution-and-climate-are-numerous .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Need for Geostationary satellite measurements of trop chem and transport {#need-for-geostationary-satellite-measurements-of-trop-chem-and-transport .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

###### Observing "chemical weather" {#observing-chemical-weather .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

##### Importance v. Uncertainty {#importance-v.-uncertainty .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

###### Research emphasis should be on issues with greatest impacts, but all identified issues require scrutiny. {#research-emphasis-should-be-on-issues-with-greatest-impacts-but-all-identified-issues-require-scrutiny. .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

###### Emissions, microphysics, and chemistry have highest unc {#emissions-microphysics-and-chemistry-have-highest-unc .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

##### Create an integrated research priority and product strategy -- an Earth data simulator research lab and policy tool {#create-an-integrated-research-priority-and-product-strategy-an-earth-data-simulator-research-lab-and-policy-tool .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

###### Each issue/process matrix for each chapter creates a layer {#each-issueprocess-matrix-for-each-chapter-creates-a-layer .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

###### Layers are linked {#layers-are-linked .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

## Elisabeth Holland (NCAR) {#elisabeth-holland-ncar .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Building the case for coupled biogeochemical cycles {#building-the-case-for-coupled-biogeochemical-cycles .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Successes {#successes .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Reflects complexity, nonlinearity, and coupling {#reflects-complexity-nonlinearity-and-coupling .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Need {#need .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### More targeted questions {#more-targeted-questions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Focus on couplings {#focus-on-couplings .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Where are there nonlinearities? {#where-are-there-nonlinearities .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### POPs? {#pops .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Oxidizing capacity? {#oxidizing-capacity .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

### Case for Integration {#case-for-integration .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Links to Atm Comp is not cited in other chapters. {#links-to-atm-comp-is-not-cited-in-other-chapters. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Failure of community to communicate the importance of the couplings with the atmosphere. {#failure-of-community-to-communicate-the-importance-of-the-couplings-with-the-atmosphere. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Impact of Nitrogen cycle on radiative forcings: {#impact-of-nitrogen-cycle-on-radiative-forcings .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### N20, CH4, CO2, O~3~, SO2, aerosols... {#n20-ch4-co2-o3-so2-aerosols .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Future trends in GHG and aerosols {#future-trends-in-ghg-and-aerosols .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### SO2 is going down {#so2-is-going-down .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Ozone and GHGs going up {#ozone-and-ghgs-going-up .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Suggests a change in aerosol composition {#suggests-a-change-in-aerosol-composition .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### C is going up {#c-is-going-up .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### What is the acceleration of the N cycle? {#what-is-the-acceleration-of-the-n-cycle .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Human pop {#human-pop .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Manure prod {#manure-prod .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Fertilizer use {#fertilizer-use .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Fossil fuel Nox {#fossil-fuel-nox .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Impact of N cycle on O~3~ abundance {#impact-of-n-cycle-on-o3-abundance .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### NCAR Biogeosciences Program {#ncar-biogeosciences-program .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Mack McFarland (DuPont) {#mack-mcfarland-dupont .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Balance better in overview presentation than in chapter {#balance-better-in-overview-presentation-than-in-chapter .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### 1.Need more explicit tie to international assessments {#need-more-explicit-tie-to-international-assessments .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### 2.Stakeholder engagement {#stakeholder-engagement .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### example of cooperation on CFC alternatives development {#example-of-cooperation-on-cfc-alternatives-development .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### success in dealing with strat ozone science {#success-in-dealing-with-strat-ozone-science .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### 3.Program focus {#program-focus .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Role of aviation in atmospheric composition {#role-of-aviation-in-atmospheric-composition .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Nox emissions in upper trop {#nox-emissions-in-upper-trop .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

##### Impact of persistent contrails {#impact-of-persistent-contrails .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Role of aerosols {#role-of-aerosols .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Need more on role of aerosols in tropospheric chemistry {#need-more-on-role-of-aerosols-in-tropospheric-chemistry .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

#### Ozone end game?  {#ozone-end-game .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

##### Many important issues are still being raised {#many-important-issues-are-still-being-raised .Style-Heading-5-+-12-pt}

###### Methyl bromide {#methyl-bromide .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

###### Short lived species {#short-lived-species .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

###### Recent Antarctic obs {#recent-antarctic-obs .Style-Heading-6-+-12-pt}

### 4.Balance between short and long term goals {#balance-between-short-and-long-term-goals .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### too much on short term, not enough on long term {#too-much-on-short-term-not-enough-on-long-term .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### long term investments are often the first to get cut {#long-term-investments-are-often-the-first-to-get-cut .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

# Comments:

## Kelly Chance (SI/SAO) {#kelly-chance-sisao .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### When does the CCRI end and what happens after that? {#when-does-the-ccri-end-and-what-happens-after-that .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Phil {#phil .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### CCRI is the short term focus (2-4 yrs) of the CCSP. The rest is yet to be determined. This is an Administration initiative. {#ccri-is-the-short-term-focus-2-4-yrs-of-the-ccsp.-the-rest-is-yet-to-be-determined.-this-is-an-administration-initiative. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Mary Gant (NIEHS) {#mary-gant-niehs .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### CCRI is not the only short term research, just the major emphasis.  {#ccri-is-not-the-only-short-term-research-just-the-major-emphasis. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Peter Lunn (DOE) {#peter-lunn-doe .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### CCRI is relatively modest in size compared to USGCRP. {#ccri-is-relatively-modest-in-size-compared-to-usgcrp. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Phil {#phil-1 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### No one knows how the budget picture will change. {#no-one-knows-how-the-budget-picture-will-change. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Joel Levy (NOAA) {#joel-levy-noaa .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### (Phil has Joel's three charts in hard copy.) {#phil-has-joels-three-charts-in-hard-copy. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Implicit in the chapter are commitments that we may not be able to keep.  {#implicit-in-the-chapter-are-commitments-that-we-may-not-be-able-to-keep. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### If we want to know aerosol-climate impact, we need to know: {#if-we-want-to-know-aerosol-climate-impact-we-need-to-know .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Aerosol distributions {#aerosol-distributions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Aerosol properties {#aerosol-properties .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Aerosol-climate effects (direct and indirect) {#aerosol-climate-effects-direct-and-indirect .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Cloud distributions {#cloud-distributions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Surface characteristics {#surface-characteristics .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### ... {#section .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### Uncertainties are  {#uncertainties-are .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Signif for distributions {#signif-for-distributions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Very large for properties {#very-large-for-properties .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Unbounded for effects (effects = distribution \* properties, uncertainty is compounded) {#unbounded-for-effects-effects-distribution-properties-uncertainty-is-compounded .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### We can't decrease these uncertainties in a 2-4 year time frame.  {#we-cant-decrease-these-uncertainties-in-a-2-4-year-time-frame. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Understanding the effects is not a 2-4 year problem. {#understanding-the-effects-is-not-a-2-4-year-problem. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Our current understanding of many indirect effects is poor. {#our-current-understanding-of-many-indirect-effects-is-poor. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### And existing research programs are non existent. {#and-existing-research-programs-are-non-existent. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Mohan Gupta (NASA Goddard) {#mohan-gupta-nasa-goddard .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Emissions have not been addressed well enough. {#emissions-have-not-been-addressed-well-enough. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### With more emphasis on intercontinental transport, we don't have info on emissions from Asia. {#with-more-emphasis-on-intercontinental-transport-we-dont-have-info-on-emissions-from-asia. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Two problems {#two-problems .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### What are the absolute emissions  {#what-are-the-absolute-emissions .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### How they are changing over time by source category {#how-they-are-changing-over-time-by-source-category .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Eg. CFC 11 is still not well understood. {#eg.-cfc-11-is-still-not-well-understood. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Beth Holland {#beth-holland .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Emissions are important for understanding shorter lived species  {#emissions-are-important-for-understanding-shorter-lived-species .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Mack McFarland {#mack-mcfarland .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Many emissions are based on industry estimates that haven't been evaluated. E.g., methyl chloroform based OH estimates may be in error.  {#many-emissions-are-based-on-industry-estimates-that-havent-been-evaluated.-e.g.-methyl-chloroform-based-oh-estimates-may-be-in-error. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Steve Schwartz {#steve-schwartz .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Quantifying forcings requires better emissions info {#quantifying-forcings-requires-better-emissions-info .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Michael Prather (UC Irvine) {#michael-prather-uc-irvine .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Why doesn't chapter 5 have more input into chapter 2? {#why-doesnt-chapter-5-have-more-input-into-chapter-2 .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Chap 2 is very narrowly focused. {#chap-2-is-very-narrowly-focused. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### CCRI should be more focused on cross cutting local to global scale issues.  {#ccri-should-be-more-focused-on-cross-cutting-local-to-global-scale-issues. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Phil {#phil-2 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Ties back to Beth's argument about linking to biogeochemical cycles. {#ties-back-to-beths-argument-about-linking-to-biogeochemical-cycles. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Jeff Gaffney (ANL) {#jeff-gaffney-anl .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Natural hydrocarbon emissions and feedbacks to climate changes are not addressed well enough.  {#natural-hydrocarbon-emissions-and-feedbacks-to-climate-changes-are-not-addressed-well-enough. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Need to understand CO2 fertilization and N cycling increasing to increasing biogenic HC leading to increases in trop O~3~ and secondary organic aerosols.  {#need-to-understand-co2-fertilization-and-n-cycling-increasing-to-increasing-biogenic-hc-leading-to-increases-in-trop-o3-and-secondary-organic-aerosols. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Beth {#beth .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Referred to Science (Nov 15) article on decreasing trends in pan evaporation. {#referred-to-science-nov-15-article-on-decreasing-trends-in-pan-evaporation. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## A.R. Ravishankara NOAA/AL {#a.r.-ravishankara-noaaal .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### The chapter was focused on the direct effects of atmospheric composition on climate change. All of the other feedbacks need to be more explicitly described, but you've got to start with the direct effects. {#the-chapter-was-focused-on-the-direct-effects-of-atmospheric-composition-on-climate-change.-all-of-the-other-feedbacks-need-to-be-more-explicitly-described-but-youve-got-to-start-with-the-direct-effects. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Phil {#phil-3 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### This version is limited in scope, there is a longer version of the research plan in the works.  {#this-version-is-limited-in-scope-there-is-a-longer-version-of-the-research-plan-in-the-works. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Ellis Cowling (NCSU) {#ellis-cowling-ncsu .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Importance of N cycle. {#importance-of-n-cycle. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### If you look at all reactive N, a 15 fold increase in emissions from 1860 to 1990. We don't know much about the impacts of these what these compounds have done. {#if-you-look-at-all-reactive-n-a-15-fold-increase-in-emissions-from-1860-to-1990.-we-dont-know-much-about-the-impacts-of-these-what-these-compounds-have-done. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Agriculture globally produces 6 times as much reactive N emissions as all energy production. (160 Tg total, 25 Tg from energy, 135 Tg is agriculture) {#agriculture-globally-produces-6-times-as-much-reactive-n-emissions-as-all-energy-production.-160-tg-total-25-tg-from-energy-135-tg-is-agriculture .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Manvendra Dubey (Los Alamos NL) {#manvendra-dubey-los-alamos-nl .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Document needs more prioritization.  {#document-needs-more-prioritization. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Need to define outstanding problems (provide tangible example questions) {#need-to-define-outstanding-problems-provide-tangible-example-questions .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Distribution of Soot (INDOEX plume) {#distribution-of-soot-indoex-plume .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Explain the Rate of change of methane {#explain-the-rate-of-change-of-methane .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Michael Prather {#michael-prather .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Aviation issues have been covered to death. {#aviation-issues-have-been-covered-to-death. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### But we don't understand other sectors such as agriculture and transportation.  {#but-we-dont-understand-other-sectors-such-as-agriculture-and-transportation. .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Mike Kurylo (NASA/NIST) {#mike-kurylo-nasanist .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### We still don't understand contrails and Nox. {#we-still-dont-understand-contrails-and-nox. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Doug Rottmon (LLNL) {#doug-rottmon-llnl .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Strat-Trop Exchange is poorly understood, and don't forget Strat-Mesosphere Exchange.  {#strat-trop-exchange-is-poorly-understood-and-dont-forget-strat-mesosphere-exchange. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Jason West (EPA-AAAS) {#jason-west-epa-aaas .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Linkage to mitigation has not been made. {#linkage-to-mitigation-has-not-been-made. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### As we consider mitigation strategies, we haven't identified the potential for more cost-effective strategies for decreasing climate changes other than CO2 reduction. {#as-we-consider-mitigation-strategies-we-havent-identified-the-potential-for-more-cost-effective-strategies-for-decreasing-climate-changes-other-than-co2-reduction. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Daniel Jacob {#daniel-jacob .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Atm comp is at the nexus of many problems, but we are treated implicitly.  {#atm-comp-is-at-the-nexus-of-many-problems-but-we-are-treated-implicitly. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### If we are the essential piece, we need to do a better job of increasing our visibility.  {#if-we-are-the-essential-piece-we-need-to-do-a-better-job-of-increasing-our-visibility. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Jim Butler NOAA/CMDL {#jim-butler-noaacmdl .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### CO2 is missing.  {#co2-is-missing. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### We're not just interested in chemically active gases. Also interested in long-lived relatively inactive gases.  {#were-not-just-interested-in-chemically-active-gases.-also-interested-in-long-lived-relatively-inactive-gases. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### By focusing on chemically active, seem to be only interested in short term phenomena. {#by-focusing-on-chemically-active-seem-to-be-only-interested-in-short-term-phenomena. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### N2O has an even longer lifetime than CO2 and we don't understand it that well. {#n2o-has-an-even-longer-lifetime-than-co2-and-we-dont-understand-it-that-well. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Changes in N2O sources are connected to changes in surface runoff and coastal processes.  {#changes-in-n2o-sources-are-connected-to-changes-in-surface-runoff-and-coastal-processes. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Robert Charlson (Univ of Washington) {#robert-charlson-univ-of-washington .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Need to coordinate surface, aircraft, and satellite obs. {#need-to-coordinate-surface-aircraft-and-satellite-obs. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### Surface give detail for limited locations and time {#surface-give-detail-for-limited-locations-and-time .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Aircraft give detail for limted locations and time {#aircraft-give-detail-for-limted-locations-and-time .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### Models give all the above, but are just models {#models-give-all-the-above-but-are-just-models .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

### To extrapolate, need to use all modes of obs and models {#to-extrapolate-need-to-use-all-modes-of-obs-and-models .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### IGAC Newsletter, Dec 2001, p 11-14 {#igac-newsletter-dec-2001-p-11-14 .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### [http://www.igac.unh.edu/newsletter/igac25/December%2001.pdf](http://www.igac.unh.edu/newsletter/igac25/December 01.pdf)

## Mike Kurylo {#mike-kurylo .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### The document requires some implicit understandings.  {#the-document-requires-some-implicit-understandings. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### One thing that is implicit is the coordination that is needed. We need an integrated observing system including lab studies, observations (in-situ, ground based, orbital, ships, planes, other...), models. {#one-thing-that-is-implicit-is-the-coordination-that-is-needed.-we-need-an-integrated-observing-system-including-lab-studies-observations-in-situ-ground-based-orbital-ships-planes-other-models. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Need a coordinated plan of attack that lays out what all of the tools and strategies can yield.  {#need-a-coordinated-plan-of-attack-that-lays-out-what-all-of-the-tools-and-strategies-can-yield. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Michael Prather {#michael-prather-1 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### There is a serious use of atm science later in the document through integrated assessment models but no link back to atmos science.  {#there-is-a-serious-use-of-atm-science-later-in-the-document-through-integrated-assessment-models-but-no-link-back-to-atmos-science. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Need to pay attention to evaluation and construction of IAMs used for decision making purposes. {#need-to-pay-attention-to-evaluation-and-construction-of-iams-used-for-decision-making-purposes. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Dubey {#dubey .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Trace gases that are not radiatively active are left out {#trace-gases-that-are-not-radiatively-active-are-left-out .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

#### e.g., H2 is a tracer for HCHO {#e.g.-h2-is-a-tracer-for-hcho .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

#### e.g., Acetonitrile (marker for biomass burning) {#e.g.-acetonitrile-marker-for-biomass-burning .Style-Heading-4-+-12-pt}

## Steve Schwartz {#steve-schwartz-1 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Budgetary pressure will force an ordering of priorities.  {#budgetary-pressure-will-force-an-ordering-of-priorities. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Can't take background investments for granted. {#cant-take-background-investments-for-granted. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Mike Kurylo {#mike-kurylo-1 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### We don't want high priority issues to be addressed at the expense of the truly necessary foundational investments (such as maintaining long term observational time series).  {#we-dont-want-high-priority-issues-to-be-addressed-at-the-expense-of-the-truly-necessary-foundational-investments-such-as-maintaining-long-term-observational-time-series. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Beth {#beth-1 .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Prioritization has already happened in chapter 12, and it doesn't represent the issues discussed here. We need to pay attention to this because it may be the only thing that budget people pay attention to.  {#prioritization-has-already-happened-in-chapter-12-and-it-doesnt-represent-the-issues-discussed-here.-we-need-to-pay-attention-to-this-because-it-may-be-the-only-thing-that-budget-people-pay-attention-to. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

## Ravi {#ravi .Style-Heading-2-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Chap 5 is not reflected in other chapters. {#chap-5-is-not-reflected-in-other-chapters. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt}

### Feedbacks need to be more explicit.  {#feedbacks-need-to-be-more-explicit. .Style-Heading-3-+-Times-New-Roman-12-pt .unnumbered}