# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 01-04

January 2004

# 

# Corn Prospects Deteriorate in Argentina and South Africa 

# but Improve in Brazil and India

#  

**Brazil: 2003/04 Corn Receives Ideal Rainfall, Production Forecast
Higher**

The USDA estimates 2003/04 [Brazil corn production](../Corn_area.jpg) at
40.0 million tons, up 2.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down
5.0 million or 11 percent from last year's exceptional harvest. Area is
estimated at 12.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month, but
down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year.
![](media/image2.png){width="4.197222222222222in"
height="4.666666666666667in"}The increased production estimate is
attributed to a month-to-month increase in estimated sown area, nearly
ideal rainfall, and better moisture conditions in virtually all primary
producing states. Official reports from public and private sector
agricultural officials point to higher-than-expected planted corn area
in the main summer growing season. FAS had expected the strong rally in
CBOT soybean futures prices since July to lead to significantly lower
summer corn acreage, with farmers reallocating available acreage to the
more lucrative and liquid oilseed. Brazilian officials, however, are
indicating that only a modest reduction in corn acreage occurred in key
southern states, while it remained stable or increased in others.
Meanwhile, weather has been extremely favorable for the fast developing
summer crop, with current stored soil moisture adequate to carry much of
the crop to harvest. Moisture is near ideal in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa
Catarina, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Goias, Mato Grosso,
and Bahia, which together comprise nearly 70 percent of the total summer
crop area. Summer crop yields are now forecast well above average, but
below last year's record level. *(For more information, contact Michael
Shean at 202-720-7366.)*

# Argentina: Poor Establishment of Late-Planted Corn Reduces 2003/04 Corn Area 

Argentina's 2003/04 corn production is forecast at 12.5 million tons,
down 1.0 million or 7 percent from last month and down 19 percent from
last season's estimate of 15.5 million. Harvested area is forecast at
2.10 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 9 percent from last month and
14 percent lower than last season. Yields are forecast at 5.95 tons per
hectare, above average, but below last year's record.

The late-planted corn in western Cordoba Province had poor establishment
conditions, which may lead to increased abandonment or harvest losses.
Forecast harvested area has been reduced by 200,000 hectares this month
to account for prevented plantings and an above-average estimate of
harvest losses: 24 percent compared to an average of 20 percent.

Drought during November in western crop areas (Cordoba and La Pampa
Provinces) delayed and in some cases prevented corn planting. Rain the
first week of December allowed planting to finish up, but corn area
decreased as farmers switched to soybeans. The most severe planting
delay was in Rio Cuarto delegation, Cordoba Province. This is
Argentina's largest corn area, and where the drought was most severe.
The late-planted corn, which had emerged by mid-December, suffered ten
days of dryness. It may not have had sufficient rooting depth to survive
this period of dryness, and there was very little surface soil moisture.
The lower than normal temperatures, with highs below 30 Celsius provided
some relief. Heavy rainfall on December 27 provided more relief.

Field travel in mid-December by USDA personnel confirmed the poor
condition of late-planted corn in western Cordoba. Yield potential for
late-planted corn is highly variable, ranging between 2.5 and 8.5 tons
per hectare. In addition to the problems in western Cordoba, corn in
eastern Cordoba was suffering drought stress in some areas. Plant height
was shorter than expected. Fertilizer applications were not made due to
the earlier dryness.

The drought is localized in Cordoba and La Pampa Provinces. In Santa Fe
Province, east of Cordoba, corn conditions were very good. The corn was
entering the flowering stage with ample soil moisture. Corn in the rest
of Argentina is doing very well, and record yields are expected for
those areas. *(For more information, contact Robert Tetrault at
202-690-0130.)*

**South Africa: 2003/04 Corn Production Down Due to Poor Planting
Conditions**

> South Africa's corn production for 2003/04 is forecast at 8.0 million
> tons, down 0.9 million from last month and down 1.7 million or 17
> percent from last year's crop. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1
> million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.6
> million from last year. The estimated yield of 2.58 tons per hectare
> is below the five-year average due to late plantings and low soil
> moisture reserves.
>
> Planting begins in October in the east and gradually progresses to the
> west where it ends in mid-January. In the eastern portion of the Maize
> Triangle, optimum planting dates are mid-October to mid-November and
> farmers were able to plant at this time. However, dry conditions and
> hot weather in December stressed many young plants and some farmers
> had to replant due to poor emergence. Late re-plantings will reduce
> potential yields due to a shorter growing season and increase the risk
> of frost damage at harvest time.
>
> Planting was delayed in the central and western region of the Maize
> Triangle due to dry conditions and low soil moisture reserves. The
> optimal planting time in the west is before Christmas, but dry
> conditions prevented large portions of the crop from being planted.
> Beneficial rain arrived during and after Christmas which improved
> planting conditions, and local seed companies have reported increased
> orders during the past two weeks.
>
> Corn area is expected to be low this year for both irrigated and
> dryland corn crops. Irrigation farmers are expected to plant less corn
> than last year and shift back to planting potatoes due to high potato
> prices. Dryland farmers are also reluctant to grow corn this year due
> to low soil moisture reserves caused by dry winter conditions which
> increase the risk of crop failure. *(For more information, contact
> Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)*

# India: Corn Production Forecast at Record Level 

India\'s 2003/04 corn output is estimated at a record 14.0 million tons,
up 1.0 million or 8 percent from last month and up 2.9 million or 26
percent from last year's drought affected crop. Area is forecast at a
record 7.0 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month
and up 0.7 million or 11 percent from last year. The 2003/04 Kharif, or
fall harvested, corn crop comprises approximately 85 percent of the
total crop. An excellent monsoon from June to September 2003 has helped
to boost the Kharif area and yield. The Rabi, or summer harvested, corn
crop is normally about 15 percent of the total. Beneficial autumn rains
contributed to the expansion of the Rabi sown area. (*For more
information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

# India: Wheat Production Estimate Revised Upward

India\'s 2003/04 wheat output is estimated at 69.3 million tons, up 2.3
million or 3 percent from last month, but down 2.5 million or 3 percent
from last year. Area is forecast at 25.3 million hectares, up 0.3
million or 1 percent from last month, but down 0.6 million or 2 percent
from the previous season. The crop was sown in November 2002 under drier
than normal conditions following India's first monsoon failure of the
previous 14 seasons. The revised area and production estimates reflect
the latest available information from the Government of India as
reported by the Attaché in New Delhi, India. (*For more information,
contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

##### China: Lower Rice Area and Yields Forecast for 2003/04

China's 2003/04 milled rice production is estimated at 116.5 million
tons (166.4 million tons rough basis), down 1.5 million or 1 percent
from last month and down 5 percent from last year's below-average crop.
Declining area and low yields have reduced the 2003/04 crop to the
lowest level in 20 years. The estimated area of 27.3 million hectares is
unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year. Rice area
has dropped for four consecutive years and has declined 13 percent since
1999/00. Low quality indica rice, grown as a double crop in southern
China, has seen the largest area reduction in recent years The area and
production of japonica rice in northern China increased during the
1990's but has now stabilized, probably due to limited water resources
in the region. The estimated yield of 6.1 tons per hectare (rough basis)
is down 1 percent from last month and is the lowest since 1995/96.
Excessive rainfall and localized flooding damaged the single-rice crop
in eastern and central China this summer, while late-rice yields in
southern China were likely affected by an unusually severe autumn
drought. *(For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at
202-690-0133.)*

**Russia: Barley Output Down from Last Year, but Above Average**

Russia's barley production for 2003/04 is estimated at 17.9 million
tons, up 2.4 million or 15 percent from last month, but down 0.8 million
or 4 percent from last year. The revised estimate is based on
preliminary harvest data released by the State Statistical Committee.
This marks the third consecutive above-average barley harvest. Spring
barley -- which comprises roughly 90 percent of the total barley crop --
benefited from generally favorable conditions and good harvest weather
following weather-related planting delays. Wheat production is estimated
at 34.0 million tons, unchanged from last month but down 16.6 million or
33 percent from last year. *(For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
at 202-690-0143.)*

# Argentina: Sunflowerseed Yield Reduced

Argentina's 2003/04 sunflowerseed production is forecast at 3.0 million
tons, down 0.3 million or 9 percent from last month and down 19 percent
from last season's output. Harvested area is forecast at 1.9 million
hectares, unchanged from last month and down 19 percent from last
season. Yield is forecast below average at 1.58 tons per hectare because
of poor conditions in western crop areas (Cordoba and La Pampa
Provinces). Drought during November affected 34 percent of the sunflower
crop. Sunflower planting is complete, but the drought delayed, and in
some cases prevented, sunflower planting. Field travel in mid-December
by USDA personnel confirmed the reportedly poor condition of sunflowers
in western Cordoba. Sunflowers were wilted, stunted, and had small
heads. Sunflower harvesting has started in northern Argentina and good
yields are reported. In southern Buenos Aires Province, conditions have
been good and the crop is in the vegetative stage; good yields are
expected there, too. *(For more information, contact Robert Tetrault at
202-690-0130.)*

# Pakistan: Reduced Cotton Production Estimate Based on Weak Arrival Data

Pakistan\'s 2003/04 cotton production is forecast at 7.6 million bales,
down 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.2 million or 3
percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares,
unchanged from last month but up 0.2 million or 7 percent from last
year. Field reports indicated crop condition was satisfactory to very
good prior to September. Above-average rainfall in key growing regions
during late August and early September resulted in reduced output, and,
compounded by unavailability of quality pesticides, a pest-vulnerable
crop. The full extent of damage is now becoming apparent through arrival
statistics from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association. The Pakistan
cotton ginning and arrival data as of January 1 reveals a 4-percent
decrease in arrivals compared to the same period last season. In
addition, the rate of arrivals from December to January has decreased
likely indicating an overall reduction in output. (*For more
information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-406), January 12,
2004.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, prepared
this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be
released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on

February 10, 2004.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director (Acting) Mark Lindeman 202-720-0873
lindeman@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds & Cotton Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881
provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

& Chile

Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

Mexico, Central America,

& Caribbean Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

Canada & Western Europe Jim Tringe 202-720-0882 tringej@fas.usda.gov

Central Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Turkey, Middle East,

& Southwest Asia Maria Anulacion 202-690-0139 anulacion@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine,

& other FSU States Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

China, Koreas, Japan, & Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

India, & Pakistan

Central & Southern Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

United States Rao Achutuni 202-690-0140 achutuni@fas.usda.gov

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.gov