Alaska Interagency Fire Research Needs September 2005

AWFCG - Alaska Wildland Fire Coordinating Group

The following list of research topics was generated by agencies within
AWFCG during 2005. The topics were ranked originally by the AWFCG Fire
Research and Development Committee (FRDAC) and finally by the AWFCG
members. Ranking was as follows: 3= high, 2 = medium, 1= low (or H, M,
L). The averages were calculated for AWFCG and are presented below. List
is sorted by highest ranking by AWFCG.

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  **AWFCG   **ID#**   **Category**   **Topic**            **Research Need**                **On-going
  Rank                                                                                     projects/Comments**
  Avg**                                                                                    
  --------- --------- -------------- -------------------- -------------------------------- ---------------------
  2.8       21        Fuels          Fuel Break           The effectiveness of various     Northway Fuel Break
                      Treatment      effectiveness:       fuel treatments has been modeled Long-term monitoring;
                                     empirical testing    but no trials have been done in  ALCAN Fuel Break
                                                          Alaska for the vegetation types  long-term monitoring.
                                                          in Alaska. Fire managers have    
                                                          recommended and funded fuel      
                                                          treatments, including shaded     
                                                          fuel breaks, without             
                                                          demonstrable evidence that they  
                                                          work. A series of fuel           
                                                          treatments could be combined     
                                                          into a larger scale experimental 
                                                          burn program to verify fire      
                                                          behavior models and increase the 
                                                          body of knowledge about fire     
                                                          behavior in Alaska and the       
                                                          adjacent Yukon Territory.        

  2.7       5         Fire Danger    Validate the         Fire management decisions in     Wilmore, B. 2000.
                                     Canadian Forest Fire Alaska are based on the ability  Graduate thesis at
                                     Danger Rating System to predict fire risk and burning UAF; Jandt, R. et al.
                                     (CFFDRS) indices in  conditions. Most fire management 2004 Duff moisture
                                     Alaska               agencies in Alaska have adopted  report - BLM Tech
                                                          the Canadian Forest Fire Danger  Report; Ottmar et al.
                                                          Rating System (CFFDRS) as a      2003 Joint fire
                                                          method for predicting fire       science project: Fuel
                                                          danger, behavior, and severity.  moisture and duff
                                                          The original fuel moisture       consumption.
                                                          drying algorithms were developed 
                                                          in eastern red pine and jack     
                                                          pine stands, which do not occur  
                                                          in Alaska and there is some      
                                                          question whether the CFFDRS      
                                                          indices adequately and           
                                                          accurately address drying trends 
                                                          in continuous and non-continuous 
                                                          permafrost laden organic soils.  
                                                          Results from Ottmar's work       
                                                          closely links duff moisture with 
                                                          forest floor consumption. Some   
                                                          investigations have been done,   
                                                          but research is needed to: 1)    
                                                          evaluate CFFDRS indices and      
                                                          drying trends in different       
                                                          geographic regions across        
                                                          Alaska, 2) evaluate the use of   
                                                          weather station and soil         
                                                          moisture probes data to          
                                                          adequately represent duff        
                                                          moisture, 3) determine whether   
                                                          overwinter drying values or      
                                                          default startup values should be 
                                                          utilized, 4) evaluate the        
                                                          relationship between CFFDRS      
                                                          indices and probability of       
                                                          ignitions, rate of spread,       
                                                          duration and depth of organic    
                                                          fuel consumption.                

  2.5       3         Fire Behavior  Model Verification   The current fire behavior models \--Omi & Camp JFSP
                                                          for Alaska fuels have not been   2004 (Huffman)
                                                          empirically tested in Alaska.    addresses some of
                                                          There was enough anecdotal       this.
                                                          evidence of their effectiveness  
                                                          that they were adopted in the    
                                                          late 1980's and early 1990's,    
                                                          but since that time no formal    
                                                          case studies or field trials     
                                                          have been documented. There is a 
                                                          continuing need for field        
                                                          verification of the predicted    
                                                          spread rates, fireline           
                                                          intensities and mortality as     
                                                          currently modeled by the CFFDRS  
                                                          or other models.                 

  2.3       17        Fire Regimes   Fire Return          The large fire history database  Rupp & Mann's JFSP
                                     Intervals/Fuels      includes many occurrences where  2005 addresses some
                                                          old fires stop the progression   of this. Omi & Camp
                                                          of new fires across the          JFSP 2004 (Cronan)
                                                          landscape. What are the          addresses some of
                                                          characteristics (age, fuel load, this.
                                                          vegetation type, moisture, etc.) 
                                                          that allow these older fires to  
                                                          act as fuel breaks for new       
                                                          fires?                           

  2.3       27        Smoke          Smoke transport      The existing smoke transport      
                      Management     models               models available for use in      
                                                          Alaska are all developed for the 
                                                          Lower 48 states. Different       
                                                          terrain, weather and jet stream  
                                                          dynamics in Alaska potentially   
                                                          will alter the models\'          
                                                          effectiveness. Computer          
                                                          simulation techniques can be     
                                                          used to provide an assessment of 
                                                          how well the models capture the  
                                                          important characteristics of     
                                                          smoke transport in Alaska.       
                                                          Understanding how well the       
                                                          models function for Alaska will  
                                                          enable fire managers to make     
                                                          better predictions and provide   
                                                          better capabilities for smoke    
                                                          management.                      

  2.2       4         Fire Danger    Fire risk modeling   Fire managers in Alaska need to   
                                                          be able to identify the          
                                                          potential for spread of wildland 
                                                          fires to prioritize location of  
                                                          fuel reduction projects near     
                                                          communities. The development of  
                                                          fire risk models at a local      
                                                          level using GIS data sets is     
                                                          needed for communities in        
                                                          northern forests. Model          
                                                          components may include fuel      
                                                          types, risk of ignition, values  
                                                          at risk, and potential fire      
                                                          behavior. Model simulations      
                                                          would enable managers to develop 
                                                          risk assessments and evaluate    
                                                          the effectiveness of small       
                                                          acreage fuel treatments and      
                                                          prescribed burns in reducing     
                                                          fire risk and enhancing other    
                                                          values, such as wildlife         
                                                          habitat. Development of an       
                                                          approach that would assign a     
                                                          probability of burning to        
                                                          unburned areas in Alaska would   
                                                          enable managers to develop risk  
                                                          assessment models for            
                                                          communities, establish long-term 
                                                          monitoring and research sites to 
                                                          gather integrated baseline data  
                                                          related to wildland fires.       

  2.2       16        Fire Regimes   Fire Return          Across Alaska the diversity of   Rupp & Mann's JFSP
                                     Intervals            vegetation/fuel types,           project addresses
                                                          topography and microsite climate some of this.
                                                          all influence the fire return    
                                                          intervals. Relatively few        
                                                          studies have been conducted to   
                                                          determine the fire return        
                                                          intervals in Alaska. Most of     
                                                          these studies are small and      
                                                          localized, or have been based on 
                                                          a relatively short fire history  
                                                          record (50 yrs). A compilation   
                                                          of return intervals for the      
                                                          entire state would enable fire   
                                                          managers and resource managers   
                                                          to make more informed decisions  
                                                          about fire and fuels management. 

  2.2       19        Fuels          Fuel typing          The natural fuels photo series   
                                                          provides an important land       
                                                          management tool that can be used 
                                                          to assess the fuel loading and   
                                                          stand characteristics of fuel    
                                                          types throughout the United      
                                                          States. Within Alaska we have    
                                                          two photo series, but are        
                                                          lacking in basic data on the     
                                                          fuel loading for the following   
                                                          important fuel types: shrubs,    
                                                          tussock tundra, and white spruce 
                                                          with bark beetle.                

  2.2       23        Fuels          Type Conversion      Fuel breaks are an option to      
                      Treatment                           reduce continuity in flammable   
                                                          vegetation, to potentially       
                                                          reduce risk of spreading both    
                                                          ground and crown fires, and to   
                                                          provide application sites for    
                                                          aerial retardant or water. Type  
                                                          conversion from black spruce to  
                                                          deciduous shrubs or hardwoods is 
                                                          desirable to maximize the time   
                                                          interval before further          
                                                          maintenance is required.         
                                                          Research should define           
                                                          operational factors of           
                                                          disturbance that enhance type    
                                                          conversion while avoiding dense  
                                                          grass, particularly on cold wet  
                                                          sites (e.g., fire vs. mechanical 
                                                          scarification, debris shading,   
                                                          proximity of seed source,        
                                                          sprouting potential).            

  2.2       20        Fuels          Ecological effects   Several projects are underway to USFWS: Northway Fuel
                      Treatment                           reduce fire hazard or fire risk  Break Long-term
                                                          in Alaska using various fuel     monitoring; ALCAN
                                                          treatments. Some studies are     Fuel Break long-term
                                                          assessing the impacts of fuel    monitoring. NPS:
                                                          treatments on forest condition   Denali Front Country;
                                                          (vegetative response) and fire   BLM: Tanacross
                                                          risk mitigation (fuel loading    
                                                          and fire weather indices).       
                                                          Research is needed on the second 
                                                          order effects on biological      
                                                          diversity (species presence and  
                                                          relative abundance) have         
                                                          implications for wildlife        
                                                          viewing, hunting opportunity,    
                                                          and ecosystem function near the  
                                                          urban interface. Research topics 
                                                          include success of stand-level   
                                                          type conversion (including       
                                                          retention of late-seral features 
                                                          like snags), loss of fire        
                                                          disturbance, landscape-level     
                                                          fragmentation of forest canopy,  
                                                          and potentially increased        
                                                          access.                          

  2.2       25        Invasive       Rapid response       Perform a vector analysis for    Determine if this is
                      Plants                              the risks of invasive weed entry a significant issue
                                                          into Alaska. Identify the        that we can affect.
                                                          geographic sources of equipment  
                                                          and personnel involved in        
                                                          fighting fires in Alaska;        
                                                          analyze how they are transported 
                                                          to Alaska; assess the            
                                                          known/suspected invasive weeds   
                                                          associated with these locations; 
                                                          and compile information on       
                                                          effective IPM rapid response     
                                                          techniques for these species.    

  2.2       26        Prevention     Identifying          The cost and landscape tradeoff  * *
                                     incentives to        borne by homeowners, businesses, 
                                     Firewise compliance  and municipalities in complying  
                                                          with Firewise guidelines may be  
                                                          partly offset with reduced rates 
                                                          on fire insurance. A review of   
                                                          site factors used in setting     
                                                          rates by insurance companies     
                                                          would be instructive to Firewise 
                                                          program trainers and consumers.  
                                                          This type of review may have     
                                                          been conducted a few years ago   
                                                          for the Matanuska-Susitna        
                                                          Borough following the Millers    
                                                          Reach fire, but it needs to be   
                                                          broadened to the major           
                                                          municipalities statewide for     
                                                          which insurance coverage exists. 

  2.0       15        Fire           Dozer line           The effectiveness of dozer lines  
                      Operations     effectiveness        versus natural barriers as       
                                                          firing breaks as well as the     
                                                          long-term effects of dozer lines 
                                                          needs to be redocumented. Older  
                                                          studies dating back to the       
                                                          Chicken fire of 1967(?) and      
                                                          other work on dozer lines in     
                                                          unstable soils could be brought  
                                                          into one document for current    
                                                          fire managers and the public.    

  2.0       28        Social Science Risk Assessments     Several projects are currently   The Bitterroot
                                                          underway to model fire risk      Ecosystem Management
                                                          associated with different        Research Project is
                                                          intensities, techniques and      referenced Combine
                                                          frequencies of fuel treatments.  with other risk
                                                          In these current assessment      project - NPS
                                                          efforts, primary emphasis has    
                                                          been placed on predicting the    
                                                          physical effects of fuel         
                                                          treatment implementation and     
                                                          hazardous risk mitigation.       
                                                          However, risk assessment should  
                                                          also include risks to values     
                                                          derived from recreation          
                                                          opportunities, subsistence       
                                                          participation, and symbolic      
                                                          relationships between            
                                                          communities and forested         
                                                          landscapes. Rapid Appraisal and  
                                                          GIS mapping techniques applied   
                                                          in different settings have       
                                                          proven useful for describing how 
                                                          potential fuel treatments affect 
                                                          these values. This could also    
                                                          include wildland fire and the    
                                                          ability of fires to act as fuel  
                                                          breaks in the future.            

  1.8       1         Climate        Primary and          Climate strongly influences the  Rupp & Mann, 2003 &
                                     Secondary Order Fire occurrence and extent of fires   2005 Joint fire
                                     Effects and Climate  in Alaska. Climate models        science projects
                                     Change               project that rapid Arctic        (JFSP).
                                                          warming will continue. For       
                                                          Alaska, the Hadley and Canadian  
                                                          models project 1.5-5°F (1-3°C)   
                                                          more warming by 2030, and 5-12°F 
                                                          (3-6.5°C) (Hadley) or 7-18°F     
                                                          (4-10°C) (Canadian) by 2100. It  
                                                          remains unclear what effects     
                                                          climate change will have on      
                                                          fuels, burn severity, intensity, 
                                                          natural ignition sources         
                                                          (lightning frequency and         
                                                          temporally) and how these        
                                                          parameters will impact plant and 
                                                          wildlife ecology. Information on 
                                                          the potential changes in fire    
                                                          behavior and fuels under         
                                                          changing climate scenarios is    
                                                          needed for fire management to    
                                                          respond to the predicted changes 
                                                          in fire activity.                

  1.8       9         Fire effects   Subsistence          Alaskan residents depend heavily  
                                     Resources            on fish and wildlife resources   
                                                          found near their communities.    
                                                          Some villages in Alaska have     
                                                          expressed concerns about a       
                                                          cumulative effect from recent    
                                                          (\< 25 years) large fires around 
                                                          their communities that is        
                                                          limiting their ability to access 
                                                          subsistence resources. When      
                                                          fires alter the landscape there  
                                                          is often concern over the fire   
                                                          effects on these resources.      
                                                          Requests for increased           
                                                          suppression in these areas are   
                                                          common. Integrated research that 
                                                          documents short and long-term    
                                                          effects of fire and suppression  
                                                          on subsistence resources and     
                                                          their habitats would improve the 
                                                          ability of land managers to      
                                                          respond to these concerns.       
                                                          Frequent concerns raised at      
                                                          public meetings include habitat  
                                                          utilization relative to          
                                                          vegetation succession for moose  
                                                          or caribou, salmon and fire      
                                                          interactions, fur bearer         
                                                          response, berry productivity,    
                                                          and the cumulative effects of    
                                                          all recent (\< 25years) fires    
                                                          combined.                        

  1.7       2         Economics      Tool to measure the  Cost plus net value lost are     
                                     current cost of      used for decision making within  
                                     taking action        Wildland Fire Situation Analyses 
                                     against the net      in the Lower 48. At the current  
                                     value lost           time, land managers do not have  
                                                          a good tool to measure the       
                                                          current cost of taking action    
                                                          against the net value lost,      
                                                          future cost of action or the     
                                                          deferred cost of action. This    
                                                          ties with effectiveness of       
                                                          various fuel treatments, the     
                                                          fire return intervals across the 
                                                          state and the effectiveness of   
                                                          old fires as barriers to the     
                                                          spread of new fires.             

  1.7       12        Fire Effects   Response to burn     Vegetation in the boreal forest  Hollingsworth,
                                     severity over time.  is rejuvenated largely by        Johnstone et al --
                                                          stand-replacement fires. The     2005 Joint fire
                                                          burn severity of a fire strongly science project; NPS
                                                          influences vegetation patterns   and USFWS burn
                                                          and succession after fire. Burn  severity validation
                                                          severity and the resulting       projects ongoing.
                                                          changes in vegetation can        
                                                          influence wildlife distribution  
                                                          and site utilization. Models     
                                                          that predict vegetative response 
                                                          across habitat types over time   
                                                          based on pre-burn conditions and 
                                                          burn severity will allow         
                                                          managers to develop              
                                                          prescriptions that directly      
                                                          address habitat goals instead of 
                                                          goals based on fire behavior     
                                                          outputs. In addition, research   
                                                          is needed to understand the      
                                                          effects of burn severity on      
                                                          permafrost, nutrient cycling,    
                                                          water quality, erosion potential 
                                                          and emissions.                   

  1.7       30        Social Science Public Perceptions   Previous research has shown that Previous proposal by
                                                          public attitudes and responses   scientists from the
                                                          toward fire management           USFS RMRS and the
                                                          activities (fire use,            inter-agency Aldo
                                                          suppression, fuels management)   Leopold Wilderness
                                                          are closely linked to public     Research Institute on
                                                          perceptions of agency purposes,  Kenai Peninsula.
                                                          the relationship of those        
                                                          purposes to public interests,    
                                                          and trust in the agency to       
                                                          fulfill those purposes. Little   
                                                          scientific information about the 
                                                          Alaskan public's relationship(s) 
                                                          with the land management         
                                                          agencies in the context of fire  
                                                          management is available.         

  1.5       8         Fire Effects   Landscape Ecology,   Wildland fire management         Fire occurrence and
                                     Wildlife             decisions can have a major       associated elements
                                                          influence on the distribution    are constrained in
                                                          and productivity of wildlife     Full and Modified --
                                                          habitat. Current fire management research should
                                                          allows prescriptive constraints  address those area is
                                                          to be imposed upon wildland and  extent is large
                                                          prescribed fire that to some     enough.
                                                          extent will control fire size,   
                                                          location, frequency, rate of     
                                                          spread, and burn severity        
                                                          patterns. However, the           
                                                          large-scale spatial correlation  
                                                          between these activities and the 
                                                          distribution of wildlife and     
                                                          wildlife habitat across the      
                                                          landscape needs to be evaluated  
                                                          and used to inform managers and  
                                                          the public.                      

  1.5       22        Fuels          Social effects       Projects are underway to model   A Kenai Peninsula
                      Treatment                           fire risk associated with        project similar to
                                                          different types of fuel          the one described
                                                          treatments. Primary emphasis has here has been
                                                          been on predicting the effects   previously proposed
                                                          of fuel treatments on forest     by scientists from
                                                          condition (vegetative response)  the USFS Rocky
                                                          and fire risk mitigation (fuel   Mountain Research
                                                          loading and fire weather         Station and the
                                                          indices). Fuel treatments will   inter-agency Aldo
                                                          also influence values associated Leopold Wilderness
                                                          with recreation, subsistence     Research Institute
                                                          lifestyles, and other human      
                                                          dimensions in forested           
                                                          landscapes. Spatial simulation   
                                                          of future landscapes under       
                                                          different treatment scenarios    
                                                          may prove useful in land use     
                                                          planning and measuring human     
                                                          response to proposed changes.    

  1.3       11        Fire Effects   Vegetation:          Most post-fire successional      Joly et al. 2003.
                                     post-fire succession studies are for boreal forest    Winter habitat use of
                                     in tundra and        types. Very few studies pertain  female caribou and
                                     tree-line            to the effects of fire on tundra fire. Canadian
                                     communities in NW    and tree-line ecosystems in the  Journal of Zoology
                                     Alaska               western and northwestern regions 81: 1192-1201; Racine
                                                          of Alaska. Information on        et al. 2004. Tundra
                                                          post-fire recovery is needed for fire and vegetation
                                                          tundra habitats (tussocks,       -- Seward. Arctic,
                                                          shrub, bryophyte, and lichen     Antarctic and Alpine
                                                          dominated tundra), shrub         Research 36: 1-10;
                                                          thickets, and tree-line forests. Jandt and Meyers,
                                                          Some species of lichens are      2000. Recovery of
                                                          critical winter range forage for lichen in tussock
                                                          caribou, and caribou migration   tundra following
                                                          patterns can be modified by fire fire. BLM AK Open
                                                          disturbance (Joly et al 2003).   Fire Report 82.
                                                          Understanding the relationship   
                                                          between fire severity and        
                                                          recovery time for these lichen   
                                                          fields is critical to management 
                                                          needs. In addition, the          
                                                          prediction of tree-line          
                                                          expansion due to warming climate 
                                                          and fires needs to be verified,  
                                                          as this will impact fuel types   
                                                          in the future. This information  
                                                          will assist fire managers in     
                                                          making decisions about fire      
                                                          suppression management options   
                                                          in Alaska and provide guidelines 
                                                          for future prescribed fire or    
                                                          hazard fuel removal projects.    
                                                          National fire initiatives such   
                                                          as Landfire and Fire Regime      
                                                          Condition Class both require an  
                                                          understanding of the             
                                                          distribution of successional     
                                                          seres and fire return intervals  
                                                          to make decisions about fire     
                                                          management at the landscape      
                                                          level. We lack knowledge about   
                                                          successional relationships, fire 
                                                          return intervals and expected    
                                                          distribution of these community  
                                                          types.                           

  1.3       10        Fire Effects   Effects of repeated  Some sites in boreal forest have Would like to know if
                                     fire on biota        had multiple fires over          frequency, size,
                                                          prolonged periods (e.g., 40      severity is outside
                                                          years). Few studies have focused natural variability
                                                          on effects of repeated fires,    (Cella)
                                                          and it is a topic of public      
                                                          concern in rural areas. Research 
                                                          is needed about changes to       
                                                          upland, wetland and other        
                                                          habitats from frequent fires     
                                                          over prolonged periods and       
                                                          corresponding effects to         
                                                          wildlife/fisheries and how those 
                                                          habitats are utilized.           

  1.3       24        Invasive       Prevention           Investigate existing methods      
                      Plants                              (Standard Operating Procedures,  
                                                          Hazard Analysis and Critical     
                                                          Control Points \[HACCP\] plans,  
                                                          etc.) for the prevention of      
                                                          spread of weeds in the fighting  
                                                          of fires, particularly in the    
                                                          Western U.S. (or wherever most   
                                                          of the fire fighters & equipment 
                                                          come from) and analyze their     
                                                          likely efficacy for preventing   
                                                          weed invasions associated with   
                                                          fire fighting in Alaska.         

  1.2       13        Fire Effects   Wetlands             The direct and indirect           
                                                          contributions of fire to the     
                                                          hydrology of boreal forest       
                                                          wetland habitats are poorly      
                                                          understood. One assumption is    
                                                          that fires in wetlands           
                                                          contribute and/or free up        
                                                          important nutrients needed for   
                                                          plant growth, which in turn      
                                                          enhances growth of               
                                                          invertebrates. There may then be 
                                                          indirect benefits to waterbirds  
                                                          and other wetland dependent      
                                                          species as a result of fire.     
                                                          Baseline limnological data has   
                                                          been collected across wetlands   
                                                          in interior Alaska in the last   
                                                          20 years. Evaluation of these    
                                                          sites that recently burned could 
                                                          be identified and resampled or   
                                                          new sites could be established   
                                                          prior to prescribed burns. What  
                                                          are the relationships with burn  
                                                          severity and nutrient transport? 
                                                          Further understanding of these   
                                                          relationships would assist land  
                                                          managers to better predict the   
                                                          benefits of fire to wetland      
                                                          dependent species.               

  1.2       6         Fire Effects   Hydrology/Wetlands   How fire alters hydrological     
                                                          characteristics in the boreal    
                                                          forest is poorly documented. The 
                                                          relationships between fire       
                                                          severity, size, season and       
                                                          hydrology characteristics such   
                                                          as permafrost changes, lake      
                                                          drying patterns, water budgets,  
                                                          sediments, temperature, debris,  
                                                          subsidence, nutrients and        
                                                          aquatic organisms in stream      
                                                          drainages and wetlands would     
                                                          provide valuable insights for    
                                                          managers. These data could also  
                                                          be integrated to fish, wildlife  
                                                          and climate change studies to    
                                                          respond to subsistence and       
                                                          resource concerns.               
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