Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 5/01/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** RS4018

RS4018

**Russian Federation**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Randall Hager

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Dorothy Adams and Yelena Vassilieva

**Report Highlights:**

Post forecasts total grain production in 2004 at 73.2 million metric
tons (mmt), a six mmt increase from last year\'s winter-kill affected
crop of 67 mmt. This increase is due to the better condition of winter
grains at the beginning of April and an expected larger area sown to
spring grains. Carry-over stocks will be quite low, meaning consumption
and exports will be fairly stable. Total exports will be 6.1 mmt,
composed mainly of 3.5 mmt of wheat and 2.3 mmt of barley.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Moscow \[RS1\]

\[RS\]

Table of Contents

[**General Outlook for the MY 2004
3**](#general-outlook-for-the-my-2004)

[Production 3](#production)

[Inputs Supply 3](#input-supply)

[Agricultural Machinery 3](#agricultural-machinery)

[Seeds 4](#seeds)

[Fertilizer and Chemicals 4](#fertilizer-and-chemicals)

[Fuel 4](#fuel)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Trade 4](#trade)

[Tariffs 5](#tariffs)

[Stocks 5](#stocks)

[Policy 5](#policy)

[Finance 6](#finance)

[Marketing 6](#marketing)

[A Final Outlook for 2003 6](#a-final-look-at-2003)

[Planted and Harvested Area, Production, Yields
6](#planted-and-harvested-area-production-yields)

[Table 1. Total Grain Area Planted, 1995-2002, 1,000 Hectares
6](#table-1.-total-grain-area-planted-1995-2002-1000-hectares)

[Table 2. Grain Production, 1996-2003, 1,000 Hectares
7](#table-2.-grain-production-1996-2003-1000-hectares)

[Grain Quality 7](#grain-quality)

[Consumption 7](#consumption-1)

[Stocks 8](#stocks-1)

[Trade 8](#trade-1)

[Wheat for 2004 8](#wheat-for-2004)

[Table 3. PSD, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
8](#table-3.-psd-wheat-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 4. Import Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons.
9](#table-4.-import-trade-matrix-wheat-1000-metric-tons.)

[Table 5. Export Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons
9](#table-5.-export-trade-matrix-wheat-1000-metric-tons)

[Barley for 2004 10](#barley-for-2004)

[Table 6. PSD, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
10](#table-6.-psd-barley-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 7. Import Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons
10](#table-7.-import-trade-matrix-barley-1000-metric-tons)

[Table 8. Export Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons
11](#table-8.-export-trade-matrix-barley-1000-metric-tons)

[Rye for 2004 11](#rye-for-2004)

[Table 9. PSD, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
11](#table-9.-psd-rye-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 10. Export Trade Matrix, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons
12](#table-10.-export-trade-matrix-rye-1000-metric-tons)

[Corn for 2004 12](#corn-for-2004)

[Table 11. PSD, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
13](#table-11.-psd-corn-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 12. Import Trade Matrix, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons
13](#table-12.-import-trade-matrix-corn-1000-metric-tons)

[Oats for 2004 14](#oats-for-2004)

[Table 13. PSD, Oats, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
14](#table-13.-psd-oats-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Rice for 2004 14](#rice-for-2004)

[Table 14. PSD, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
14](#table-14.-psd-rice-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 15. Import Trade Matrix, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons
15](#table-15.-import-trade-matrix-rice-1000-metric-tons)

[Other Grains and Legumes for 2004
16](#other-grains-and-legumes-for-2004)

# General Outlook for the MY 2004

## Production

Post forecasts total grain production at 73.2 mmt, a six mmt increase
from last year, given normal weather conditions and assuming that
attractive prices will improve input supply and farm management. The
area sown to all grains is forecast to increase by 2.0 -- 2.5 million
hectares from a record low of 42 million hectares in 2002. This increase
in area is expected in spring grain fields, while the area sown to
winter grains is lower than last year. Winter grains are sown on 13.6
million hectares, 1.3 million hectares less than last year due to rains
in the fall and a delayed and hectic harvest late into the fall that
switched farmers and their resources from sowing. However, the winter
crop survival is 1.8 million hectares better than last year, so the
final area for winter grains will be close to last year's level, and
given the better status of the winter grain crop as of mid-March 2004,
yields will be higher. According to weather data, this summer may be dry
in the European part of Russia meaning yields of spring grain may be
lower.

The federal Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg) is trying to increase the
total harvested area to 45 million hectares (3 million hectares up from
the last year). In order to do this, MinAg initiated the "Resolution of
the Government on Support of Spring Sowing Works". However, high grain
prices will be the main stimuli to increase grain area. High wheat
prices will stimulate farmers to increase spring wheat sown area first
of all, and Post forecasts that production of less important grains like
millet, buckwheat, and legumes will decrease from 3.1 mmt in MY 2003 to
2.4 mmt in MY 2004.

## Input Supply

The financial status of grain farmers improved in 2003, but access to
essential inputs continues to be limited. Input supply prices, in many
cases, increased faster than grain prices and most farmers have to
divide returns from sales between many urgent needs including seeds,
fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, and electricity. The prices of machines and
spare parts increased from twenty to over forty percent in 2003 and
fertilizer prices (ammonium nitrate) skyrocketed by eighty percent.
According to estimates, for spring work farmers need to repair 230,000
tractors, 100,000 trucks, and about 270,000 pieces of planting and
plowing equipment, the cost of which is estimated at 23.0 billion
rubles.

### Agricultural Machinery

Last year's high prices are expected to result in increased purchase of
new agricultural machinery, which are typically not at the top of
farmer's purchase list. The main producer of harvesters in Russia
(Rostov grain combines) plans to double production in 2004 to over 3,000
new harvesters. However, this is still less than ten percent of the
plant's production capacity as decreasing planted area and continued
financial constrains of farmers has led to lower demand for agricultural
machines in spite of the rapid deterioration of existing machinery.
Domestic production of agricultural machines has declined by 40-45
percent within the last two years and in 2003 only 8,000 tractors were
produced compared with 15,200 tractors two years ago. Production of
plows decreased from 3,100 units to 1,000 units and production of grain
harvesters shank from 9,000 units to 6,500 units.

According to estimates of the Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences,
in 2003 Russian agricultural enterprises had 600,000 tractors (27
percent less that in CY 2000), 198,000 plows (17 percent less than in CY
2000), 159,000 grain harvesters (20 percent less than in CY 2000), and
44,500 green mass choppers (25 percent less than in CY 2000). According
to "Rosagrosnab", currently Russia is short 700,000 tractors, 200,000
grain harvesters, 380,000 plows, 170,000 cultivators, 220,000 planters
and 30,000 feed harvesters (green mass choppers), five percent less than
the year before. The average age of tractors in Russia is 15-16 years,
while the standard depreciation period should not be longer than ten
years.

######### 

### Seeds

Last year's smaller crop has decreased the availability of "saved"
planting seeds used by most farmers in Russia, especially for wheat, and
is expected to negatively affect output in 2004. However, structural
changes in the processing industry and high prices may result in
improvements in seed use in commercial farms that produce durum wheat
for pasta processors and malting barley for beer companies. Production
of grain on contract with processors usually leads to improvement of
agronomic practices, first of all the use of better seeds, but these
practices have not yet become popular in grain production as a whole and
for most farmers, being supplied with adequate quality seeds this year
will be a problem. For more information, please, see Planting Seeds
Annual Report RS4010.

### Fertilizer and Chemicals

The price of fertilizer increased based, according to some experts, to
some extent on government efforts to subsidize the price of fertilizer
to farmers. The subsidies were given to fertilizer companies which used
them to increase exports instead of decreasing domestic prices. The
federal government will discontinue subsiding fertilizer in 2004, but
higher returns to farmers and regional support should increase the
supply, especially in the Southern Federal District. However, grain
production in Russia in general is not a fertilizer or chemical
intensive industry.

### Fuel

Fuel prices continue to increase and the fuel supply is one of the
biggest constraints for sowing and harvesting. Oblast administrations
have better contacts and more influence on oil companies and can use
administrative resources to stimulate the latter to sell fuel to farmers
on better terms (in many cases through the Food Corporations or similar
companies affiliated with the oblast and regional administrations).

## Consumption

Post forecasts total grain consumption will decrease by 1.56 mmt to
69.44 mmt including a decrease in feed consumption from 33.05 mmt to
31.46 mmt due to decreasing domestic poultry operations. A slight
increase in food domestic consumption to 22.85 mmt (80,000 tons up from
the lowest level of 22.7 mmt in 2003) will not offset the decrease in
feed consumption. These fluctuations in food consumption do not create
shortages, but are reflected in prices.

## Trade

Post forecasts grain exports will decrease to 6.1 mmt, one million tons
lower than in 2003, and less than forty percent of the historic high
exports in MY 2002 due to low stocks and changes in foreign markets.
Demand for Russian grain in Europe, one of the largest markets for
Russian exports during the last two years, will decrease due to a better
EU crop and the upcoming expansion of the Union. According to some
Russian analysts, the average annual export of Russian grain to the
Baltic States over the last several years has been roughly 600,000
metric tons and about 300,000-400,000 metric has been exported to the
other seven countries that will join the E.U. on May 1, 2004. The EU has
not increased grain import quotas for Russia in spite of the increased
membership and Russia will be able to export to all EU member countries
only about 200,000-250,000 metric tons within this quota, 800,000 less
that last year.

Rapidly growing freight rates will also be disadvantageous for Russian
grain exports. Competition with domestic grain consumption will not be
high because demand for food grain is stable, while domestic wheat-feed
consumption is forecast to decrease reflecting the decreasing tendencies
in the domestic livestock and poultry production. At the same time grain
trading companies have already invested in expansion and construction of
port facilities and in foreign trade operations, and so will engage in
some exports irrespective of domestic grain production and stocks.
Overall port structure and capacity will be adequate for all exports.
For more information on ports and other transportation infrastructure,
see GAIN reports RS3009 and RS 3012.

Imports are forecast at 2.4 mmt, including 1.0 mmt of wheat, 400,000
metric tons of barley and 600,000 metric tons of corn, conditioned on
the continuation GMO corn registration. Larger imports from the U.S. are
expected.

## Tariffs

In order to stimulate imports of feed grain and to curb exports of food
quality grains, temporary changes were made to grain export and corn
import duties. Starting January 27, 2004 corn grain (HS number 1005 90
000 0, other) will be imported duty free for the next nine months,
according to the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation
#771 of December 23, 2003. Another resolution of the Government of the
Russian Federation #749 of December 11, 2003 introduces temporary (from
January 16, 2004 through May 1, 2004) tariffs of 0.025 Euro per kg on
wheat (HS number 1001) and rye (HS number 1002) exported from the
territory of the Russian Federation to countries outside of the Customs
Union. For more information on these resolutions and their effect on the
trade see Gain reports RS3052, RS3054, and RS3056.

## 

## Stocks

Post forecasts total grain stocks will be less than 4.27 mmt by the end
of MY 2004 close to the 4.24 mmt estimate for MY 2003. These stocks are
considered marginal by all Russian experts. This issue is addressed in
the draft of the new agricultural law with interventions viewed as the
main tool to guarantee adequate carry-over stocks. However, the new
agricultural law, if adopted in CY 2004 will not influence the grain
situation in MY 2004.

## Policy 

The GOR has approved the traditional scheme of seasonal (spring sowing)
support of agricultural producers a month earlier than usual. In the
Resolution of the Government of February 18, 2004 the following measures
were approved for "provision of seasonal field agricultural works": in
February-April 2004 the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade will undertake measures to
provide to the regions with fuel and lubricants, including 6.1 million
tons of diesel fuel, and 2.45 million tons of automobile gas (with
monthly distribution) for the "timely fulfillment of spring agricultural
works". The Ministry of Finance will allocate in the first half of 2004
1.7 billion rubles (0.5 million rubles more than last year) for
compensation of cash shortfalls connected with seasonal financial
support to agricultural producers. Additionally, the GOR recommended to
the Russian Agricultural Bank to allocate 400 million rubles in loans to
organizations that repair and provide technical and inputs supply
services to agriculture. The GOR also recommended the regional
administrations take measures to increase area sown to grains and
legumes.

MinAg referred to idle agricultural lands, especially arable land, as
the main resource of increasing grain production at present. According
to estimates, thirty million hectares of agricultural land, including
18-20 million hectares of arable land are not in use.

## Finance

In the 2004 budget allocations for agricultural loans, interest rates
subsidies will increase and MinAg plans to attract up to 50 billion
rubles in agricultural credits (up 12 billion from the last year).

During late 2003 and early 2004, grain prices went up (for more
information see Post reports RS3046, RS3055, and RS4008) and for the
first time the GOR conducted intervention sales, selling grain from
state reserves to millers. In the draft of the new agricultural law,
grain interventions are seen as one of the permanent tools to regulate
prices and stabilize production. However, the terms and prices of the
procurement intervention for the 2004 crop have not been outlined yet
and this piece of government policy will have very little influence on
the crop.

## Marketing

The share of grain sold commercially by farmers is increasing, although
official data is not available. Vertical integration between grain
producers and grain processors is not significant and is present only in
small shares of durum wheat-pasta processing and barley-malt-beer
production chains. Flour and feed mills usually purchase grain from
farmers and what-may-be-called integration is present only when these
purchases go through local food corporations that finance farmers and
get payments in grain. Grain trading companies also work mostly on
buy-sell terms with grain producers. Trade through grain exchanges is
not significant, although intervention purchases and sales conducted
through commodity exchanges will make this type of marketing more
popular in the future.

# A Final Look At 2003

## Planted and Harvested Area, Production, Yields

Official final data on the crop is 67.2 mmt, a twenty-two percent
decrease from the year before, including a thirty-three percent decrease
in wheat production and a forty-two percent decrease in rye production.
The sharp decline in wheat production was due to decreased area sown to
winter wheat coupled with high winterkill. Barley production was only
0.1 mmt lower than in 2002, because barley is primarily a spring crop
that did not suffer as significantly as wheat.

## Table 1. Total Grain Area Planted, 1995-2002, 1,000 Hectares

+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|             | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |
|             |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
|             |      |      |      |      |      |      |      | (    |
|             |      |      |      |      |      |      |      | prel |
|             |      |      |      |      |      |      |      | .)\* |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Wheat,      | 2    | 2    | 2    | 2    | 2    | 2    | 2    | 2    |
| total       | 5721 | 6056 | 6101 | 3022 | 3204 | 3765 | 5662 | 2100 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| \- winter   | 9321 | 8944 | 8246 | 7609 | 7926 | 8525 | 1    | 7500 |
|             |      |      |      |      |      |      | 0113 |      |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| \- spring   | 1    | 1    | 1    | 1    | 1    | 1    | 1    | 1    |
|             | 6400 | 7112 | 7855 | 5413 | 5278 | 5240 | 5549 | 4600 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Barley,     | 1    | 1    | 1    | 9855 | 9237 | 1    | 1    | 1    |
| total       | 1853 | 2517 | 1285 |      |      | 0127 | 0279 | 0100 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| \- winter   | 460  | 490  | 345  | 419  | 533  | 648  | 677  | 400  |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| \- spring   | 1    | 1    | 1    | 9436 | 8644 | 9479 | 9602 | 9700 |
|             | 1393 | 2027 | 0938 |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Rye         | 4129 | 4005 | 3777 | 3393 | 3559 | 3634 | 3804 | 2350 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Oats        | 6929 | 6438 | 5229 | 5336 | 4581 | 4869 | 4269 | 3750 |
| (spring)    |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Corn for    | 954  | 918  | 787  | 704  | 813  | 684  | 625  | 720  |
| grain       |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Rice        | 173  | 151  | 146  | 173  | 175  | 154  | 149  | 150  |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Millet      | 1228 | 1086 | 975  | 1610 | 1588 | 1214 | 581  | 830  |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Buckwheat   | 1369 | 1112 | 1226 | 1339 | 1577 | 1594 | 837  | 730  |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Legumes     | 1430 | 1340 | 1185 | 1098 | 922  | 1076 | 1214 | 1270 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Other       | 919  | 11   | 0    | 24   | -20  | 103  | 604  | 0    |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Total       | 5    | 5    | 5    | 4    | 4    | 4    | 4    | 4    |
|             | 4705 | 3634 | 0711 | 6554 | 5636 | 7220 | 7474 | 2000 |
+-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+

Source: Goscomstat, "SovEcon"

## Table 2. Grain Production, 1996-2003, 1,000 Hectares

  -------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
                 1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003

  Wheat, total   34917   44258   26908   30961   34455   46871   50609   34030

  \- winter      16680   20550   13255   16178   17178   24400   29751   n.a.

  \- spring      18237   23758   13653   14817   17277   22471   20858   n.a.

  Barley, total  15900   20786   9780    10604   14079   19466   18738   17946

  \- winter      1300    1286    900     1446    1767    2300    2554    n.a.

  \- spring      14600   19500   8880    9156    12312   17166   16184   n.a.

  Rye (winter)   5934    7478    3270    4781    5445    6613    7139    4155

  Oats (spring)  8300    9387    4583    4395    6008    7723    5694    5177

  Corn for grain 1087    2675    820     1067    1530    831     1541    2114

  Rice           389     328     413     444     586     497     483     448

  Millet         446     1219    451     924     1123    548     292     975

  Buckwheat      485     630     464     578     998     570     304     525

  Legumes        1793    1780    954     881     1199    1802    1764    1644

  Other          89      12      127     71      83      262     48      136

  Total          69340   88553   47770   54706   65506   85183   86612   67150
  -------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------

Source: Goscomstat, "SovEcon"

## Grain Quality

Grain quality was better in 2003 than in 2002, but given the lower crop,
the volume of milling wheat (class three) was not bigger than 2002. The
Grain and Bread Inspection Service (Rosgoskhlebinspectsiya) controls
quality, and conditions for storing and moving grain and grain products
in the domestic market. However, methods and parameters used for quality
control do not meet international requirements and with increasing
exports, Russian traders insist on changes in the parameters of grain
grades, i.e. on inclusion of protein and exclusion of gluten content
from grain classification. In accord with the present Administrative
reform, the status of the Grain Inspection Service may yet change.

## Consumption

Grain domestic consumption in MY 2003 is estimated at 71.2 mmt. Wheat
domestic consumption shrank to 35.3 mmt in MY 2003, mainly at the
expense of a sharp decrease in feed consumption, while barley domestic
consumption increased from 15.5 mmt in MY 2002 to 18.4 mmt in MY 2003.
In many cases barley started to replace wheat in feeding formulas,
although harvesting of barley is an expensive process that requires
special equipment, and many poultry producers prefer a decrease in
production of poultry to more ample use of barley. Corn consumption
increased due to a relatively high domestic corn crop. Rice consumption
is kept at stable level -- around 700,000 metric tons (milled rice),
half of which is imported rice.

## Stocks

Post estimates grain stocks at the end of MY 2003 at 4.2 mmt, more than
a 3-fold decrease from the previous year, including a decrease in stocks
of wheat from 5.6 mmt to 1.6 mmt, a decrease in stocks of barley from
4.7 mmt to 1.6 mmt, and a decrease in stocks of rye from 4.7 mmt to 1.6
mmt. Stocks of corn remain fairly stable at 113,000 metric tons. Only
big feed millers and starch and syrup producing companies can afford to
import corn and maintain carry-over stocks for their needs.

## Trade

Grain imports are expected to double from MY 2002 reaching 2.0 mmt, the
increase composed mostly of wheat imports from Kazakhstan. Grain exports
are estimated at 7.0 mmt, given that by January 2004 Russia already
exported over six mmt.

# Wheat for 2004

Post forecasts wheat production at 39 mmt. Due to extremely low levels
of carry-over stocks, consumption and exports will remain at levels
similar to last year. Post does not foresee a large export program like
the one in 2002 during the upcoming marketing year.

## Table 3. PSD, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **PSD Table**        |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| #######              | **Ru  |       |      |       |        |       |
| Country {#country-1} | ssian |       |      |       |        |       |
|                      | Fe    |       |      |       |        |       |
|                      | derat |       |      |       |        |       |
|                      | ion** |       |      |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Commodity**        | **Wh  |       |      |       | (1000  |       |
|                      | eat** |       |      |       | HA     |       |
|                      |       |       |      |       | )(1000 |       |
|                      |       |       |      |       | MT)    |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
|                      | 2002  | Re    | 2003 | Est   | 2004   | For   |
|                      |       | vised |      | imate |        | ecast |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
|                      | USDA  | Post  | USDA | Post  | USDA   | Post  |
|                      | Off   | Est   | Offi | Est   | Of     | Est   |
|                      | icial | imate | cial | imate | ficial | imate |
|                      | \[    | \[    | \[O  | \[    | \      | \[    |
|                      | Old\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Market Year        |       | 07    |      | 07    |        | 07    |
| Begin**              |       | /2002 |      | /2003 |        | /2004 |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Area Harvested       | 25700 | 25700 | 2    | 21500 | 0      | 23000 |
|                      |       |       | 1500 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks     | 6479  | 6479  | 5633 | 5633  | 1633   | 1633  |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Production           | 50550 | 50550 | 3    | 34030 | 0      | 39000 |
|                      |       |       | 4000 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.       | 545   | 365   | 1000 | 1000  | 0      | 1000  |
| Imports              |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Imports      | 545   | 365   | 1000 | 1000  | 0      | 1000  |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Import U.S.  | 0     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY         | 57574 | 57394 | 4    | 40663 | 1633   | 41633 |
|                      |       |       | 0633 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.       | 12621 | 12621 | 3500 | 3900  | 0      | 3500  |
| Exports              |       |       |      |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Exports      | 12621 | 12621 | 3500 | 3900  | 0      | 3500  |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Feed Dom.            | 16000 | 14700 | 1    | 11455 | 0      | 11900 |
| Consumption          |       |       | 2500 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.           | 39320 | 39140 | 3    | 35130 | 0      | 36233 |
| Consumption          |       |       | 5500 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| Ending Stocks        | 5633  | 5633  | 1633 | 1633  | 0      | 1900  |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION   | 57574 | 57394 | 4    | 40663 | 0      | 41633 |
|                      |       |       | 0633 |       |        |       |
+----------------------+-------+-------+------+-------+--------+-------+

## Table 4. Import Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons.

+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| **Import Trade        |              |                 |            |
| Matrix**              |              |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| #######               | ###          |                 |            |
|  Country {#country-2} | ##### Russia |                 |            |
|                       | n Federation |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Commodity             | Wheat        |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Time Period           | July-June    | Units:          | 1,000 MT   |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Imports for:          | 2002         |                 | **2003**   |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| U.S.                  | 0            | U.S.            | 15         |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Others                |              | Others          |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Kazakhstan            | 340          | Kazakhstan      | 765        |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Lithuania             | 9            | Lithuania       | 15         |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Germany               | 4            | Estonia         | 3          |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Finland               | 4            |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Greece                | 3            |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Russia                | 2            |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Country Unknown       | 2            |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Estonia               | 1            |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
|                       |              |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
|                       |              |                 |            |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Total for Others      | 365          |                 | 783        |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Others not Listed     | 0            |                 | 202        |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+
| Grand Total           | 365          |                 | 1000       |
+-----------------------+--------------+-----------------+------------+

## Table 5. Export Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Export Trade         |             |                |             |
| Matrix**               |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| ######                 | Russian     |                |             |
| # Country {#country-3} | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Wheat       |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | July-June   | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Exports for:           | 2002        |                | **2003**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   | 6           | U.S.           | 0           |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Italy                  | 1758        | Ukraine        | 1350        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Egypt                  | 1692        | Romania        | 539         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Algeria                | 1001        | Unknown        | 383         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Greece                 | 826         | Georgia        | 350         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Spain                  | 687         | Egypt          | 220         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Israel                 | 613         | Israel         | 162         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Morocco                | 580         | Greece         | 143         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Ukraine                | 533         | Italy          | 129         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Turkey                 | 528         | Albania        | 124         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Syria                  | 467         | Moldova        | 120         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 8685        |                | 3520        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 3930        |                | 380         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 12621       |                | 3900        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

# 

# Barley for 2004

Domestic production of malting barley should remain stable at the
relatively high level of 17.9 mmt meaning imports should remain flat.
According to the Russian Brewers Union, the sector's malt needs are
estimated at 1.2 mmt a year. Currently, domestic companies produce no
more than 400,000 tons annually, however, the leading brewing companies
in Russia, including Baltika (St.Petersburg) and Ochakovo (Moscow) are
building their own malting facilities, each capable of turning out
100,000 tons. Cargill is also planning to launch a malting facility in
Tula oblast, which will utilize locally supplied material and the output
will be sold to local brewing companies. In spring 2002 Baltika began
construction of its own malting plant in Tula, where this company has
built one of its plants at a cost of \$32 million The capacity will be
100,000 tons of malt a year. The plant will be open in beginning of
2004, and will meet their entire needs. In 2003, seventy percent of the
necessary malt Baltika received from the Russian-French malting plant
"Suffle".

## Table 6. PSD, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **PSD Table**      |      |       |      |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| ####### Co         | *    |       |      |       |      |       |
| untry {#country-4} | *Rus |       |      |       |      |       |
|                    | sian |       |      |       |      |       |
|                    | Fede |       |      |       |      |       |
|                    | rati |       |      |       |      |       |
|                    | on** |       |      |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **Commodity**      | **   |       |      |       | (    |       |
|                    | Barl |       |      |       | 1000 |       |
|                    | ey** |       |      |       | HA)( |       |
|                    |      |       |      |       | 1000 |       |
|                    |      |       |      |       | MT)  |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
|                    | 2002 | Re    | 2003 | Est   | 2004 | For   |
|                    |      | vised |      | imate |      | ecast |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
|                    | USDA | Post  | USDA | Post  | USDA | Post  |
|                    | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |
|                    | cial | imate | cial | imate | cial | imate |
|                    | \[O  | \[    | \[O  | \[    | \[O  | \[    |
|                    | ld\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **Market Year      |      | 07    |      | 07    |      | 07    |
| Begin**            |      | /2002 |      | /2003 |      | /2004 |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Area Harvested     | 1    | 10250 | 1    | 10500 | 0    | 10500 |
|                    | 0250 |       | 0500 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks   | 4387 | 4387  | 4706 | 4706  | 1606 | 1606  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Production         | 1    | 18700 | 1    | 17946 | 0    | 17900 |
|                    | 8700 |       | 7900 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 251  | 251   | 400  | 300   | 0    | 300   |
| Imports            |      |       |      |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports    | 275  | 275   | 400  | 300   | 0    | 300   |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import     | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
| U.S.               |      |       |      |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY       | 2    | 23338 | 2    | 22952 | 1606 | 19806 |
|                    | 3338 |       | 3006 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 3132 | 3132  | 2800 | 2900  | 0    | 2300  |
| Exports            |      |       |      |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports    | 3066 | 3066  | 2800 | 2900  | 0    | 2400  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Feed Dom.          | 1    | 10700 | 1    | 13700 | 0    | 11900 |
| Consumption        | 0700 |       | 3700 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.         | 1    | 15500 | 1    | 18446 | 0    | 16300 |
| Consumption        | 5500 |       | 8600 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks      | 4706 | 4706  | 1606 | 1606  | 0    | 1206  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION | 2    | 23338 | 2    | 22952 | 0    | 19806 |
|                    | 3338 |       | 3006 |       |      |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+

## Table 7. Import Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons

+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade        |             |                  |             |
| Matrix**              |             |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| #######               | Russian     |                  |             |
|  Country {#country-5} | Federation  |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**         | Barley      |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Time Period           | July-June   | Units:           | 1,000 MT    |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Imports for:          | 2002        |                  | **2003**    |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| U.S.                  | 0           | U.S.             | 0           |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Others                |             | Others           |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Denmark               | 88          | Kazakhstan       | 80          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| France                | 38          | Denmark          | 70          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan            | 19          | France           | 35          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Sweden                | 18          | Netherlands      | 15          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Lithuania             | 9           | Sweden           | 10          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| United Kingdom        | 4           |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
|                       |             |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
|                       |             |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
|                       |             |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
|                       |             |                  |             |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others      | 176         |                  | 210         |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed     | 75          |                  | 90          |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total           | 251         |                  | 300         |
+-----------------------+-------------+------------------+-------------+

## Table 8. Export Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons

+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| **Export Trade      |           |                      |           |
| Matrix**            |           |                      |           |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| ####### C           | Russian   |                      |           |
| ountry {#country-6} | F         |                      |           |
|                     | ederation |                      |           |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| **Commodity**       | Barley    |                      |           |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Time Period         | July-June | Units:               | 1,000 MT  |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Exports for:        | 2002      |                      | **2003**  |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| U.S.                | 0         | U.S.                 | 0         |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Others              |           | Others               |           |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Saudi Arabia        | 1405      | Saudi Arabia         | 1100      |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Israel              | 266       | Country Unknown      | 580       |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Ukraine             | 237       | Israel               | 310       |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Greece              | 208       | Cyprus               | 190       |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Italy               | 192       | Libya                | 170       |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Cyprus              | 187       | Italy                | 95        |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Algeria             | 95        | Greece               | 80        |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Morocco             | 84        | Ukraine              | 60        |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Libya               | 83        | Lebanon              | 40        |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Syria               | 75        | Romania              | 30        |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Total for Others    | 2832      |                      | 2655      |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Others not Listed   | 300       |                      | 245       |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+
| Grand Total         | 3132      |                      | 2900      |
+---------------------+-----------+----------------------+-----------+

# Rye for 2004

## Table 9. PSD, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| **PSD Table**      |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| ####### Co         | *    |       |      |      |       |       |
| untry {#country-7} | *Rus |       |      |      |       |       |
|                    | sian |       |      |      |       |       |
|                    | Fede |       |      |      |       |       |
|                    | rati |       |      |      |       |       |
|                    | on** |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**      | **R  |       |      |      | (1000 |       |
|                    | ye** |       |      |      | HA)   |       |
|                    |      |       |      |      | (1000 |       |
|                    |      |       |      |      | MT)   |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
|                    | 2002 | Re    | 2003 | Esti | 2004  | For   |
|                    |      | vised |      | mate |       | ecast |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
|                    | USDA | Post  | USDA | Post | USDA  | Post  |
|                    | Offi | Est   | Offi | Esti | Off   | Est   |
|                    | cial | imate | cial | mate | icial | imate |
|                    | \[O  | \[    | \[O  | \[N  | \[    | \[    |
|                    | ld\] | New\] | ld\] | ew\] | Old\] | New\] |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year      |      | 07    |      | 07/  |       | 07    |
| Begin**            |      | /2002 |      | 2003 |       | /2004 |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested     | 3750 | 3750  | 2300 | 2300 | 0     | 3000  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks   | 1096 | 1096  | 1805 | 1805 | 255   | 255   |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Production         | 7150 | 7150  | 4200 | 4155 | 0     | 6500  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0     |
| Imports            |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0     |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import     | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.               |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY       | 8246 | 8246  | 6005 | 5960 | 255   | 6755  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 291  | 291   | 350  | 220  | 0     | 250   |
| Exports            |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports    | 414  | 414   | 350  | 220  | 0     | 250   |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Feed Dom.          | 1750 | 1750  | 1000 | 1140 | 0     | 1500  |
| Consumption        |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.         | 6150 | 6150  | 5400 | 5485 | 0     | 5950  |
| Consumption        |      |       |      |      |       |       |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks      | 1805 | 1805  | 255  | 255  | 0     | 555   |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION | 8246 | 8246  | 6005 | 5960 | 0     | 6755  |
+--------------------+------+-------+------+------+-------+-------+

## Table 10. Export Trade Matrix, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons

+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| **Export Trade        |              |               |              |
| Matrix**              |              |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| #######               | Russian      |               |              |
|  Country {#country-8} | Federation   |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**         | Rye          |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Time Period           | June-July    | Units:        | 1,000 MT     |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Exports for:          | 2002         |               | **2003**     |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| U.S.                  | 0            | U.S.          |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Others                |              | Others        |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Ukraine               | 162          | Ukraine       | 75           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Israel                | 32           | Israel        | 60           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Lithuania             | 12           | Spain         | 20           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Italy                 | 7            | Italy         | 17           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Check Rep.            | 4            | Turkey        | 15           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
|                       |              | Syria         | 5            |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
|                       |              | Norway        | 3            |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
|                       |              |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
|                       |              |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
|                       |              |               |              |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Total for Others      | 217          |               | 195          |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed     | 74           |               | 25           |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+
| Grand Total           | 291          |               | 220          |
+-----------------------+--------------+---------------+--------------+

# Corn for 2004

Post forecasts corn imports will increase to 600,000 metric tons given
that several lines of GMO corn are registered in Russia for feed use and
a certain threshold for advantageous GMO presence has been determined
for imported corn. This will decrease importers' risks and will help
maintain the Russian feed industry and poultry production. These
amendments to the present feed corn import requirements will increase
imports of corn from the U.S.

## 

## 

## Table 11. PSD, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| **PSD Table**      |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| ####### Co         | **Ru  |      |       |      |      |       |
| untry {#country-9} | ssian |      |       |      |      |       |
|                    | Fe    |      |       |      |      |       |
|                    | derat |      |       |      |      |       |
|                    | ion** |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| **Commodity**      | **C   |      |       |      | (    |       |
|                    | orn** |      |       |      | 1000 |       |
|                    |       |      |       |      | HA)( |       |
|                    |       |      |       |      | 1000 |       |
|                    |       |      |       |      | MT)  |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
|                    | 2002  | Rev  | 2003  | Esti | 2004 | For   |
|                    |       | ised |       | mate |      | ecast |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
|                    | USDA  | Post | USDA  | Post | USDA | Post  |
|                    | Off   | Esti | Off   | Esti | Offi | Est   |
|                    | icial | mate | icial | mate | cial | imate |
|                    | \[    | \[N  | \[    | \[N  | \[O  | \[    |
|                    | Old\] | ew\] | Old\] | ew\] | ld\] | New\] |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| **Market Year      |       | 10/  |       | 10/  |      | 10    |
| Begin**            |       | 2002 |       | 2003 |      | /2004 |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Area Harvested     | 550   | 544  | 700   | 700  | 0    | 700   |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks   | 76    | 76   | 113   | 113  | 113  | 113   |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Production         | 1550  | 1550 | 2000  | 2115 | 0    | 1850  |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 99    | 99   | 500   | 385  | 0    | 600   |
| Imports            |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports    | 99    | 99   | 500   | 385  | 0    | 600   |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import     | 0     | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     |
| U.S.               |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY       | 1725  | 1725 | 2613  | 2613 | 113  | 2563  |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.     | 12    | 12   | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     |
| Exports            |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports    | 12    | 12   | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0     |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Feed Dom.          | 1200  | 1200 | 2100  | 2100 | 0    | 2010  |
| Consumption        |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.         | 1600  | 1600 | 2500  | 2500 | 0    | 2450  |
| Consumption        |       |      |       |      |      |       |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks      | 113   | 113  | 113   | 113  | 0    | 113   |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION | 1725  | 1725 | 2613  | 2613 | 0    | 2563  |
+--------------------+-------+------+-------+------+------+-------+

## Table 12. Import Trade Matrix, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade         |             |                |             |
| Matrix**               |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| #######                | Russian     |                |             |
|  Country {#country-10} | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Corn        |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | Oct-Sept    | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Imports for:           | 2002        |                | **2003**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   | 13          | U.S.           | 50          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Ukraine                | 40          | Ukraine        | 250         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Hungary                | 26          | China          | 15          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan             | 14          | Kazakhstan     | 15          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| China                  | 3           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Serbia                 | 1           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Argentina              | 1           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Latvia                 | 1           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 86          |                | 280         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      |             |                | 55          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 99          |                | 385         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

# Oats for 2004

## Table 13. PSD, Oats, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **PSD Table**       |      |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| ####### Co          | *    |      |      |       |      |       |
| untry {#country-11} | *Rus |      |      |       |      |       |
|                     | sian |      |      |       |      |       |
|                     | Fede |      |      |       |      |       |
|                     | rati |      |      |       |      |       |
|                     | on** |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **Commodity**       | **Oa |      |      |       | (    |       |
|                     | ts** |      |      |       | 1000 |       |
|                     |      |      |      |       | HA)( |       |
|                     |      |      |      |       | 1000 |       |
|                     |      |      |      |       | MT)  |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
|                     | 2002 | Rev  | 2003 | Est   | 2004 | For   |
|                     |      | ised |      | imate |      | ecast |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
|                     | USDA | Post | USDA | Post  | USDA | Post  |
|                     | Offi | Esti | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |
|                     | cial | mate | cial | imate | cial | imate |
|                     | \[O  | \[N  | \[O  | \[    | \[O  | \[    |
|                     | ld\] | ew\] | ld\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| **Market Year       |      | 07/  |      | 07    |      | 07    |
| Begin**             |      | 2002 |      | /2003 |      | /2004 |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Area Harvested      | 4400 | 4400 | 4300 | 4300  | 0    | 4300  |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks    | 1176 | 1176 | 580  | 580   | 180  | 180   |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Production          | 5700 | 5700 | 5200 | 5177  | 0    | 5200  |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      | 4    | 4    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
| Imports             |      |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports     | 2    | 2    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import U.S. | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY        | 6880 | 6880 | 5780 | 5757  | 180  | 5380  |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
| Exports             |      |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports     | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0     | 0    | 0     |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Feed Dom.           | 4600 | 4600 | 3900 | 3900  | 0    | 3700  |
| Consumption         |      |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.          | 6300 | 6300 | 5600 | 5577  | 0    | 5280  |
| Consumption         |      |      |      |       |      |       |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks       | 580  | 580  | 180  | 180   | 0    | 100   |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  | 6880 | 6880 | 5780 | 5757  | 0    | 5380  |
+---------------------+------+------+------+-------+------+-------+

# Rice for 2004

The rice crop in Krasnodar Kray is lower than expected and less than
last year, in spite of a larger planted territory and better
preparations. Two factors are to blame. First, low water and varieties
with longer vegetation period were left without water during the
critical times, and, second, a shortage of machines for harvesting
during the height of the harvest. The average yield in Krasnodar Kray is
4.07 tons per hectare (4.7 tons in 2002). From 112,000 hectares of sown
area (8,000 hectares more than in 2002) Krasnodar producers got only
430,000 metric tons, nine percent below last year. However, rice growers
tried to initiate an extension of the current temporary restrictive
import duty on rice. The Rice Association of Russia asked the government
commission for protective trade measures and customs tariff policy to
extend the current rates for import duties on rice and milled rice
products, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry said. The GOR last
June 20 issued a nine-month resolution that preserved the existing 10%
import duty on rice and milled rice products, but also introduced a
restriction under which the duty could not be less than 0.03 euros per
kg. The Association thinks the latter restriction "made it possible to
stabilize the rice market and played a significant tactical role in the
behavior of rice importers." The Ministry said the situation on the
retail market remains stable. "The rise in prices has been proportionate
to changes in the average weighted price for grain products," the
ministry said.

## Table 14. PSD, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 30%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 1%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 1%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 1%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 0%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 12%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><h6 id="psd-table">PSD Table</h6></td>
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Country</strong></td>
<td colspan="10"><strong>Russian Federation</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Commodity</strong></td>
<td colspan="8"><strong>Rice, Milled</strong></td>
<td colspan="2">(1000 HA)(1000 MT)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="2">2002</td>
<td colspan="2">Revised</td>
<td colspan="2">2003</td>
<td colspan="2">Estimate</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>Forecast</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td colspan="2">USDA Official [Old]</td>
<td colspan="2">Post Estimate [New]</td>
<td colspan="2">USDA Official [Old]</td>
<td colspan="2">Post Estimate [New]</td>
<td>USDA Official [Old]</td>
<td>Post Estimate [New]</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Market Year Begin</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2">01/2003</td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2">01/2004</td>
<td></td>
<td>01/2005</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td colspan="2">129</td>
<td colspan="2">129</td>
<td colspan="2">130</td>
<td colspan="2">130</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>130</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td colspan="2">339</td>
<td colspan="2">339</td>
<td colspan="2">308</td>
<td colspan="2">308</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>233</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Milled Production</td>
<td colspan="2">314</td>
<td colspan="2">314</td>
<td colspan="2">300</td>
<td colspan="2">290</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>300</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Rough Production</td>
<td colspan="2">483</td>
<td colspan="2">483</td>
<td colspan="2">462</td>
<td colspan="2">446</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>462</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MILLING RATE (.9999)</td>
<td colspan="2">6500</td>
<td colspan="2">6500</td>
<td colspan="2">6500</td>
<td colspan="2">6500</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>6500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TOTAL Imports</td>
<td colspan="2">385</td>
<td colspan="2">385</td>
<td colspan="2">350</td>
<td colspan="2">360</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>400</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Jan-Dec Imports</td>
<td colspan="2">385</td>
<td colspan="2">385</td>
<td colspan="2">350</td>
<td colspan="2">360</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>400</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Jan-Dec Import U.S.</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TOTAL SUPPLY</td>
<td colspan="2">1038</td>
<td colspan="2">1038</td>
<td colspan="2">958</td>
<td colspan="2">958</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>933</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TOTAL Exports</td>
<td colspan="2">20</td>
<td colspan="2">20</td>
<td colspan="2">10</td>
<td colspan="2">10</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Jan-Dec Exports</td>
<td colspan="2">20</td>
<td colspan="2">20</td>
<td colspan="2">10</td>
<td colspan="2">10</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TOTAL Dom. Consumption</td>
<td colspan="2">710</td>
<td colspan="2">710</td>
<td colspan="2">715</td>
<td colspan="2">715</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>730</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td colspan="2">308</td>
<td colspan="2">308</td>
<td colspan="2">233</td>
<td colspan="2">233</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>193</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TOTAL DISTRIBUTION</td>
<td colspan="2">1038</td>
<td colspan="2">1038</td>
<td colspan="2">958</td>
<td colspan="2">958</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>933</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

## Table 15. Import Trade Matrix, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons

+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade Matrix**  |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| #####                    | Russian     |              |             |
| ## Country {#country-12} | Federation  |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**            | Rice,       |              |             |
|                          | Milled      |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Time Period              | Jan-Dec     | Units:       | 1,000 MT    |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Imports for:             | 2003        |              | **2004**    |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| U.S.                     | 2           | U.S.         | 5           |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Others                   |             | Others       |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| China                    | 235         | China        | 230         |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Vietnam                  | 112         | Vietnam      | 100         |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Thailand                 | 29          | Thailand     | 20          |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan               | 4           | Kazakhstan   | 3           |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Belgium                  | 3           |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
|                          |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
|                          |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
|                          |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
|                          |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
|                          |             |              |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Total for Others         | 383         |              | 353         |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed        | 0           |              | 2           |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+
| Grand Total              | 385         |              | 360         |
+--------------------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+

# Other Grains and Legumes for 2004

Post forecasts a decrease in the production of other grains (millet,
buckwheat, etc) and legumes in MY 2004 to 2.5 mmt from 3.1 mmt. This
decrease is due to bigger stimuli to produce wheat, barley and corn, and
given limited input supplies, farmers will expand the area sown to main
grain crops at the expense of shrinking area under "other grains".