**"Houston, We *May* Have a Problem... in 27 Hours or so..."**

***An early warning protocol for satellites owners***

***By***

***Francesca Alexandra Bassa***

***St. Agnes Academy***

***Houston, TX***

**I. Background**

From <http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag131.htm> *(passim)*

**SOLAR STORMS CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC AND OTHER IMPACTS ON EARTH**

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="2.5in" height="3.375in"}April 5, 2004 ---
The impacts and costs associated with meteorological storms occurring on
the Earth's surface are obvious, but what about those associated with
space weather? Solar or geomagnetic storms --- just like hurricanes,
tornadoes, hail and floods --- can cause damage resulting in hundreds of
millions of dollars in economic losses each year.

**Impacts of Solar Storms**\
...Solar storms have been known to knock out satellites, some power
supplies, communications and navigation systems. Many of these effects
are transitory, but they can be very disruptive and potentially
dangerous --- both to the systems themselves and the nation's economy.
Damage to these systems can also result in secondary effects that can
disrupt virtually every major infrastructure dependant on them,
including transportation, security and emergency response systems,
telecommunications and other wireless networks and electronic equipment.

**Increased Vulnerability with Advanced Technologies**\
*"...it is more important now (than ever) to have the capabilities and
resources necessary to monitor, predict and understand space weather,"*
says retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.,
undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator. *"NOAA's research and operational capabilities enable it
to help the nation (and the world) prepare for these storms.\"*

... space weather data \[are collected\] from satellites and
ground-based sensors, including:

-   The **geostationary satellites** provide real-time measurements of
    solar flares, radiation storms, and geomagnetic disturbances...

-   The **polar-orbiting satellites** carry solar environmental monitors
    and instruments to measure ultraviolet radiation in space.

NOAA collects additional space weather data through cooperation with
NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense. The NOAA space weather scales
\[*see Appendix A*\] were created to communicate to the public the
current and future space weather conditions and their possible impacts
on people and systems. All of these activities help power companies, the
airline industry, spacecraft operators, the communications industry and
emergency officials predict and prepare for the potential damage of
solar events well before they hit the Earth.

**Value of Space Weather Observation**\
NOAA Chief Economist Rodney F. Weiher and Dr. Thomas J. Teisberg
recently estimated that the economic benefits of providing reliable
warnings of geomagnetic storms to the electric power industry (alone)
would be approximately \$450 million over three years (note that this
doesn\'t include any other impacted industries). This is well above the
\$100 million cost of a new operational satellite that would provide
such warnings (Teisberg and Weiher, 2000).

![](media/image2.jpeg){width="2.44375in"
height="4.038194444444445in"}**Economic Impacts on Power Grids and
Satellite Systems**\
The satellite industry and electric power producers have experienced
major financial losses attributed to space weather since the 1980s
(Quinn, 2000).

**Power Grids**\
...The HydroQuebec Power Grid blackout in Quebec, Canada, in March of
1989 ... \[showed\] the extent to which solar storms can impact the
economy. The solar storm induced a nine-hour blackout which affected 6
million customers and ultimately cost this power company more than \$10
million --- putting the cost of this disaster in the same category as
hurricanes and earthquakes...

Comprehensive real-time protective space weather prediction services
could have significantly reduced damages and costs. Hydro-Quebec's
solution to the blackout was to install devices that block solar storms
created geomagnetically-induced currents from traveling through its
transmission lines. Unfortunately, this solution is extremely complex
and expensive (\$1.2 billion) (Quinn, 2000).

It was soon realized that **the key to protecting vulnerable high tech
systems is the ability to forecast solar storms and to take appropriate
measures to avoid (or at least minimize) potential damage before they
strike the Earth**.

...

**Satellites**\
Scientists point out that **satellites are even more vulnerable to solar
storms than power grids**. Engineers have been forced to use much
lighter shielding materials in order to keep costs down (it costs
between \$5,000 to \$10,000 per pound to launch material into space)
(Odenwald, 1999). Space storms don\'t even have to make a direct hit to
harm a satellite, especially the many new low Earth orbit (LEO)
commercial satellites (orbiting only a few hundred miles above the
Earth's surface). During heightened solar activity, the atmosphere
thickens, increasing atmospheric friction on LEO objects. In fact, \$500
million in satellite insurance claims from 1994 to 1999 were the direct
or indirect result of space weather (Kunstadter, 2002). Despite this,
LEO satellites remain prime orbital real estate for the latest
generations of communication satellite networks. Although astronauts can
minimize radiation storm impacts by retreating into the shielded
chambers of their space station, many other satellites must be switched
to safe mode to survive solar storms...

-   The U.S. Department of Defense has estimated that disruptions to
    government satellites from space weather cost about \$100 million a
    year (Rodgers, et. al., 2000).

-   The loss of telephone pager service to 45 million customers in May
    of 1998 and military reports of interruptions to high frequency
    radio communications during the Gulf War in 1991 have also been
    attributed to solar storms (NOAA Hearing, 2003).

-   Society is becoming extremely reliant on global positioning systems.
    A one percent gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be
    worth \$180 million per year (Rodgers, et. al., 2000).

**October-November 2003 Solar Storm**\
The solar storms that impacted the Earth between Oct.19 to Nov.7,
2003... Larry Combs, one of the NOAA Space Environment Center
forecasters \[commented\] *"... there were two distinct, very intense
geomagnetic storms, which both arrived in just **19 hours from the sun
to the Earth**. This ranks them as some of the fastest traveling solar
storms on record and both produced the strongest activity this solar
cycle --- reaching extreme or G5 on the NOAA space weather scales.\"*
Because the NOAA Space Environment Center released advanced warnings
about an unusually large solar storm, electrical utilities, airlines and
spacecraft managers were able to take preventive action to minimize
disruption of service --- and the economy --- due to the storm.

**II. This Project**

The idea originated when I read that NASA and JAXSA (Japan Space Agency)
had launched in September 2006 the **Hinode (Solar-B)** program and
satellite (<http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/>) to study the effects of solar
weather on communication satellites and other phenomena. My initial
desire was to establish a simple early warning system similar to the
*tsunami warning system* in the Pacific Ocean, when/if a major solar
disturbance is aimed at the Earth.

I wrote to JAXSA and NASA and was put in touch with **Dr. Sten
Odenwald** at NASA. After several exchanges he suggested that I do a
data mining and statistical analysis which if successful could become
part of a larger project he is working on to create a sophisticated
mathematical model of what happens to communication satellites during a
severe solar storm. These storms have many components to them and to
make the model accurate all the statistically meaningful correlations
which can be deduced from past solar storms and what they did to
satellites need to be incorporated. Dr. Odenwald will present the
results at the Space Weather Conference in Boulder, CO, in April 2007.

The scope of this project is to provide the owners of satellites in
orbit with a statistically valid protocol of early warning for a
specific type of solar disturbances which can damage satellites, namely
**Solar Proton Emissions** (**SPE**) which are suspected to be related
to certain types of **Corona Mass Ejections** (**CME**s) called **Halo
CME** and **Partial Halo CME**.

Solar storms may produce spectacular Solar Flares because the magnetic
fields near the surface of the sun are forced to "reconnect" rapidly.
Other times, this process is slower and larger regions become buoyant
and launch CMEs into space. Some CMEs have a period near the sun when
particles are accelerated to high energy in an outward traveling shock
front. When this shock front arrives at Earth with the CME, Solar Proton
"storm" occurs which we see as an SPE. Other times, the shock front does
not accelerate so clearly and all we see is the CME and its associated
magnetic effects near earth (auroras).

Solar Storm

│

┌──────────┴──────────────┐

Solar Flares **CME**

│

┌──────────┴───────┐

No Shock Shock Acceleration

│ │

│ ┌────┴──────┐

Magnetic Storm Magnetic Storm No Magnetic Storm

│ │ │

Aurora Aurora & **SPE** **SPE**

*Source: communication from Dr. Odenwald*

**1. Methodology**

*(a) Gathering of the raw data*

The first step was to select the CME-SPE pairs that were close to each
other in time.

-   Generally, CME happen first and are followed by SPE. Solar Proton
    Emissions are caused by protons that are accelerated within the
    shock front of the CME as it gets close to Earth, so the SPE date
    and time will be 1-3 days after the first sighting of the CME
    eruption on the sun.

The starting point was the **catalog of all SPE** created by NOAA from
1976 to present:

<ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/Satellite_ENVIRONMENT/PARTICLES/p_events.lst>

and the **catalog of all CMEs** from 1996 to present compiled by NASA:

<http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/UNIVERSAL/text_ver/univ_all.txt>

The next step was to make these two lists cover the same period from
January 1996 to June 2006 since CMEs data are available only from 1996
when SOHO was launched and became operational. The SPE list then became
document **002-SPE** \[*Appendix B*\].

The CME Catalog (document **003-SOHO-LASCO CME catalog 2007-01-23**
\[*Appendix C*\]) was changed into a new catalog (document **004-CME
catalog 2007-01-23-working set** \[*Appendix D*\]), without the columns
with measurements deemed not reliable (acceleration, mass, and kinetic
energy).

*Note: Since these two documents (003 & 004) contain over 11,000 data
entries each, only the first page of each is included in the appendix
for the purpose of illustration only.*

Now two compatible sets of data were available from which to select the
CME-SPE pairs that were close to each other in time.

-   For the CME events, the two qualities of interested are the "Halo"
    and "Partial Halo" description. A Halo CME has a symmetrical
    appearance around the sun, a Partial Halo CME is more lob sided.

-   A "Halo CME" is a CME which is either headed directly towards Earth,
    or in the opposite direction. Both eruptions look like haloes but
    only the one on ***this*** side of the sun is directed towards
    earth.

***The scope of this project is to "prove" that earthbound Halo (or
Partial Halo) CME are those events that correlate with SPE events.***

*(b) Collating the data*

This was the major part of the work, i.e., to build a table with the
data side by side, starting from the two catalogs, of CMEs and SPE which
are related in time, and to separate and order in the right time
sequence Halo CME from Partial Halo CME with their associated SPE
events. The result, after several iterations is the Excel spreadsheet
**005-Table 5** \[*Appendix E*\].

**005-CME-SPE Table 5**

-   Each row represents a pair of Halo (or Partial Halo) CME-SPE events
    with the data from the original catalogs.

-   CME data (to the left of the red column -- columns B through G)

-   Date, time, speed measurements (columns B through G). Column M
    indicates whether the CME is categorized as Halo or Partial Halo
    (HaloP).

-   Columns N through U tag all CMEs with linear speed \>1000 km/s or
    \>1500 km/s (3.6 million km/hr and 5.4 million km/hr respectively).

-   SPE data (to the right of the red column)

-   Date, time, and strength of SPE measured in particle flux units
    (Pfu) or particles per square centimeter per second. The energy of
    the particle is measured in MeV. Only events with energy \>10 MeV
    are considered (columns I through K).

-   Column L indicates the time delay in hours between a CME event
    observed on the sun and the associated SPE event observed near
    Earth.

-   Columns V, W, and X tag all SPE events with energy \>10\^2 Mev,
    10\^3 MeV, and 10\^4 MeV respectively.

-   This is repeated for the Partial Halo CMEs.

-   At the bottom of each list there is a tally of all tagged events in
    each column and the frequency of occurrence of each.

-   The lower half of the spreadsheet asks the question whether
    earthbound Halo (or Partial Halo) CMEs are related to SPE with
    energy \>10\^2 MeV, and presents the data for the interpretation.

*Note: Appendix E (Table 5) shows only the results of the data analyses.
The Excel spreadsheet contains numerous tabs with the original and
elaborated data to produce these results.*

**2. Summary of the results**

*Question: Are SPE and CME statistically related?*

-   **SPE** (the independent variable) are caused by solar events: solar
    flares, CME, etc.

-   **CME** (their characteristics like speed etc., are the dependent
    variables) are

    -   **Halo CME** (total halo)

    -   **HaloP CME** (partial halo)

    -   **Non-halo CME**

-   All **Halo** and **HaloP CME** are either

    -   *earthbound* (towards the earth) or

    -   *in the opposite direction.*

***Data extracted and collated over the period January 1, 1996 to June
30, 2006***

**SPE ( \> 10 MeV)** (independent variables):

total \# of **SPE** events over the period: **90**

**SPE** *"associated with"* **Halo CME**: **45** out of 90 *(50.0%)*

**SPE** *"associated with"* **HaloP CME**: **16** out of 90 *(17.8%)*

**SPE** *"associated with"* **Halo** or **HaloP CME**: **61** out of 90
*(67.8%)*

**SPE** *"not associated with"* **Halo** or **HaloP CME**: **29** out of
90 *(32.2%)*

All **SPE** are characterized by ***energy*** \> 10 MeV

**CME** and their **characteristics** (dependent variables):

total \# of **all CME** events over the period: **11031**

**Halo CME**: total \# of events: **384** out of 11031 *(3.5%)*

**HaloP CME**: total \# of events: **803** out of 11031 *(7.3%)*

**Halo** or **HaloP CME**: total \# of events: **1187** out of 11031
*(10.8%)*

**Non Halo CME**: total \# of events: **9844** out of 11031 *(89.2%)*

All **CME** have ***linear speed*** measurements and other measurements
associated with them (dependent variables).

***1^st^ assumption: CME linear speed (l.s.) "relates to" SPE energy***

**(a) Halo** & **HaloP CME** with **l.s. \> 1000 km/s** *\"relate to\"*
**SPE** with **energy \> 10 MeV**

**Halo CME** (l.s.\>1000) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10 MeV): **36** out
of 45 *(80.0%)*

**HaloP CME** (l.s.\>1000) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10 MeV): **11** out
of 16 *(68.8%)*

**(b) Halo** & **HaloP CME** with **l.s. \> 1500 km/s** *\"relate to\"*
**SPE** with **energy \>10 MeV**

**Halo CME** (l.s.\>1500) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10 MeV): **21** out
of 45 *(46.7%)*

**HaloP CME** (l.s.\>1500) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10 MeV): **6** out
of 16 *(37.5%)*

***2^nd^ assumption: SPE ( \>10\^2 MeV) are associated with CME (Halo &
HaloP) l.s.***

**SPE (\>10\^2 MeV)** (independent variables):

total \# of **SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV) events over the period: **30** out of
90 *(33.3%)*

**SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV) *"associated with"* **Halo CME**: **23** out of 30
*(76.7%)*

**SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV) *"associated with"* **HaloP CME**: **7** out of 30
*(23.3%)*

**SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV) *"associated with"* **Halo** or **HaloP CME**:
**30** out of 30 *(100%)*

**(c) Halo** & **HaloP CME** with **l.s. \> 1000 km/s** *\"relate to\"*
**SPE** with **energy \> 10\^2 MeV**

**Halo CME** (\>1000 l.s.) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV): **22**
out of 23 *(95.7%)*

**HaloP CME** (\>1000 l.s.) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV): **7**
out of 7 *(100%)*

**(d) Halo** & **HaloP CME** with **l.s. \> 1500 km/s** *\"relate to\"*
**SPE** with **energy \>10\^2 MeV**

**Halo CME** (\>1500 l.s.) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV): **15**
out of 23 *(65.2%)*

**HaloP CME** (\>1500 l.s.) *"related to"* **SPE** (\>10\^2 MeV): **4**
out of 7 *(57.1%)*

*Note: Plots of these results, pie charts and Venn diagrams are in
Appendix F*

**3. Conclusions**

-   There is a ***fair*** correlation between

    -   **SPE** with **energy \>10 MeV** and

        -   **Halo CME** (**50%**)

        -   **HaloP CME** (**18%**)

-   There is a ***very good*** correlation between

    -   **SPE** with **energy \>10 MeV** and

        -   **Halo CME** with **l.s.\>1000 km/s** (**80%**)

        -   **HaloP CME** with **l.s.\>1000 km/s** (**69%**)

-   There is a ***fair*** correlation between

    -   **SPE** with **energy \>10 MeV** and

        -   **Halo CME** with **l.s.\>1500 km/s** (**47%**)

        -   **HaloP CME** with **l.s.\>1500 km/s** (**38%**)

-   There is an ***excellent*** correlation between

    -   **SPE** with **energy \>10\^2 MeV** and

        -   **Halo CME** with **l.s.\>1000 km/s** (**96%**)

        -   **HaloP CME** with **l.s.\>1000 km/s** (**100%**)

-   There is a ***good*** correlation between

    -   **SPE** with **energy \>10\^2 MeV** and

        -   **Halo** with **l.s.\>1500 km/s** (**65%**)

        -   **HaloP CME** with **l.s.\>1500 km/s** (**57%**)

From these analyses it is statistically reasonable to conclude that
fast-moving (\>1000 km/s or 3.6 million km/hr or 2.2 million miles/hr)
Halo (or Partial Halo) CMEs headed towards Earth are the most likely
origins for *"strong"* Solar Proton Events (energy \> 100 MeV).

**4. Practical application**

There are hundreds of satellites in space and most are affected in one
way or another by these events, sometimes in a minor way, other times
more severely. The most vulnerable are the ***geostationary
communication satellites***. There are over 280 of them and they
generate about \$100 billion a year in revenue from TV/radio
programming.

During the most severe storms in the past some satellites were damaged
or suffered temporary malfunction during intense periods of operating
anomalies. The actual information of which satellites were affected is
confidential because their owners worry that their stocks may drop if
consumers become skeptical of their reliability.

This project now offers for the first time a ***statistically valid
protocol*** for satellite owners in the case of special events known as
Halo and Partial Halo Corona Mass Ejections and their relation with
Solar Proton Emissions. If a satellite owner determines that a Halo (or
Partial Halo) CME is directed towards Earth and is moving faster than
1000 km/s (3.6 million km/hr or 2.2 million miles/hr), he ***now***
knows that it could produce conditions capable of disrupting satellite
operations.

Earth is about 148 million km from the sun and a CME traveling at a
speed of 1500 km/s (5.4 million km/hr or 3.4 million miles/hr) would
take a little more than a day, about 27 hrs and 24 minutes, to reach a
satellite in orbit and the associated SPE could damage/ disrupt the
satellite and its operation. A satellite owner has now a statistically
valid warning of about 27 hours on average to take actions to protect
his investment.

*What practical actions can a satellite owner take within this warning
period?*

Satellites maintenance is a very complex operation. Periodically,
satellites are put through tests, or have their operating modes changed
or optimized. This requires sending complicated commands to the
satellite. It is these commands that can be corrupted by these and other
radiation "glitches." If it is known that a storm will soon hit, these
changes would be scheduled for later times, after the disturbance has
passed.

***Acknowledgment***

I am extremely grateful to **Dr. Sten Odenwald** of **NASA** for guiding
me and yet let me struggle on my own how to gather and analyze lots of
raw data and for giving me the opportunity to collaborate with him in
what he called "a serious project."

I also want to thank **Mr. Woong Lim**, a colleague fencer and a math
teacher at my school, **St. Agnes Academy** in Houston, TX, for spending
time in showing me many statistical tricks and Excel manipulations I had
never used before.

Lastly, I want to thank my St. Agnes Academy Science Advisor, **Ms.
Madeline Contreras,** and the counselor for the Science Fair, **Ms. Jean
Flanders**, for letting me work on this project which involved a lot of
data mining, statistical manipulations, and analyses of data generated
by experiments and measurements conducted by NASA scientists.

Francesca Alexandra Bassa

10^th^ grade

St. Agnes Academy

Houston, TX

**APPENDIX A**

**NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALES**

![](media/image3.wmf)

**APPENDIX B**

**002-SPE**

**SPE, ASSOCIATED CME, FLARE AND ACTIVE REGION**

**SPE, ASSOCIATED CME, FLARE AND ACTIVE REGION**

**(*passim* 1996-2006)**

<ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/Satellite_ENVIRONMENT/PARTICLES/p_events.lst>

PARTICLE EVENT ASSOCIATED CME, FLARE AND ACTIVE REGION

Start Maximum Proton Flux CME Flare Max.ImportancLocationRegion \#

(Day/UT) (pfu @ \>10 Me(Loc./ Day UT) (X ray/Opt.) (SWO)

1996

1997

Nov 04/0830 Nov 04/1120 72 W/04 0610 Nov 04/055 X2/2B S14W33 8100

Nov 06/1305 Nov 07/0255 490 W/06 \>1300 Nov 06/115 X9/2B S18W63 8100

1998

Apr 20/1400 Apr 21/1205 1,700 W/20 1007 Apr 20/102 M1/EPL S43W90 8194

May 02/1420 May 02/1650 150 Halo/02 1406 May 02/134 X1/3B S15W15 8210

May 06/0845 May 06/0945 210 W/06 0829 May 06/080 X2/1N S11W65 8210

Aug 24/2355 Aug 26/1055 670 NA Aug 24/221 X1/3B N30E07 8307

Sep 25/0010 Sep 25/0130 44 NA Sep 23/071 M7/3B N18E09 8340

Sep 30/1520 Oct 01/0025 1,200 NA Sep 30/135 M2/2N N23W81 8340

Nov 08/0245 Nov 08/0300 11 ?

Nov 14/0810 Nov 14/1240 310 NA Nov 14/051 C1/BSL N28W90 8375?

1999

Jan 23/1105 Jan 23/1135 14 NA Jan 20/200 M5 N27E90

Apr 24/1804 Apr 25/0055 32 Halo/24 1331 NW limb 8517?

May 05/1820 May 05/1955 14 Halo/ 03 0606 May 03/060 M4/2N N15E32 8525

Jun 02/0245 Jun 02/1010 48 Halo/ 01 \<1937 Jun 01/\~1930

Jun 04/0925 Jun 04/1055 64 NW/ 04 0726 Jun 04/070 M3/2B N17W69 8552

2000

Feb 18/1130 Feb 18/1215 13 W/ 18 0954 Feb 17/203 M1/2N S29E07 8872

Apr 04/2055 Apr 05/0930 55 W/ 04 1632 Apr 4/1541 C9/2F N16W66 8933

Jun 07/1335 Jun 08/0940 84 halo/ 06 1554 Jun 06/1525 X2/3B N20E18 9026

Jun 10/1805 Jun 10/2045 46 halo/ 10 1708 Jun 10/1702 M5/3B N22W38 9026

Jul 14/1045 Jul 15/1230 24,000 halo/ 14 1054 Jul 14/1024 X5/3B N22W07
9077

Jul 22/1320 Jul 22/1405 17 NW/ 22 1230 Jul 22/1134 M3/2N N14W56 9085

Jul 28/1050 Jul 28/1130 18

Aug 11/1650 Aug 11/1655 17

Sep 12/1555 Sep 13/0340 320 halo/ 12 1331 Sep 12/1213 M1/2N S17W09
Filament

Oct 16/1125 Oct 16/1840 15 halo/ 16 0727 Oct 16/0728 M2 N04W90 9182?

Oct 26/0040 Oct 26/0340 15 halo/ 25 0826 Oct 25/1125 C4 N00W90

Nov 08/2350 Nov 09/1555 14,800 halo/ 08 2306 Nov 8/2328 M7 (multiple)

N00-10W75-80 Regions 9212, 9213, 9218

Nov 24/1520 Nov 26/2030 940 halo/ 24 0530 Nov 24/0502 X2/3B N20W05 9236

2001

Jan 28/2025 Jan 29/0655 49 halo/ 28 1554 Jan 28/1600 M1/1N S04W59 9313

Mar 29/1635 Mar 30/0610 35 halo/ 29 1026 Feb 29/1015 X1/1N N24W12 9393

Apr 02/2340 Apr 03/0745 1,100 NW/ 02\~2200 Apr 02/2215 X20/? N14W82 9393

Apr 10/0850 Apr 11/2055 355 halo/ 10 0530 Apr 10/0526 X2/3B S23W09 9415

Apr 15/1410 Apr 15/1920 951 W/ 15/1430 Apr 15/1350 X14/2B S20W85 9415

Apr 18/0315 Apr 18/1045 321 SW/ 18/0230 Apr 18/0214 C2/ S20W-Limb 9415

Apr 28/0430 Apr 28/0500 57 halo/ 26/1230 Apr 26/1312 M7/2B N17W31 9433

May 07/1915 May 08/0755 30 NW \~07/1000 NW Limb

Jun 15/1750 Jun 16/0005 26 CME W/15/1648 W Limb

Aug 10/1020 Aug 10/1155 17 CME W/09/1122 Aug 09/1122 C3/ Center Disk

Aug 16/0135 Aug 16/0355 493 halo 15/2330 Far backside

Sep 15/1435 Sep 15/1455 11 CMEsw/15/1154 Sep 15/1128 M1/1N S21W49 9608

Sep 24/1215 Sep 25/2235 12,900 halo 24/1030 Sep 24/1038 X2/2B S16E23
9632

Oct 01/1145 Oct 02/0810 2,360 CMEsw/01/0530 Oct 01/0515 M9 S22W91 9628

Oct 19/2225 Oct 19/2235 11 halo 19/1650 Oct 19/1630 X1/2B N15W29 9661

Oct 22/1910 Oct 22/2130 24 CMEse/22/1826 Oct 22/1759 X1/2B S18E16 9672

Nov 04/1705 Nov 06/0215 31,700 halo/ 04/1620 Nov 04/1620 X1/3B N06W18
9684

Nov 19/1230 Nov 20/0010 34 halo/ 17/0530 Nov 17/0525 M2/1N S13E42 9704

Nov 22/2320 Nov 24/0555 18,900 halo/ 22/2330 Nov 22/2330 M9/2N S15W34
9704

Dec 26/0605 Dec 26/1115 779 CME W 26/0540 Dec 26/0540 M7/1B N08W54 9742

Dec 29/0510 Dec 29/0815 76 CME E 29/2006 Dec 28/0815 X3 S26E90 9767

Dec 30/0245 Dec 31/1620 108

2002

Jan 10/2045 Jan 11/0530 91 CME E 08/1754 Jan 08/2025 C9 E Limb

Jan 15/1435 Jan 15/2000 15 halo 14/0525 Jan 14/0627 M4 W Limb

Feb 20/0730 Feb 20/0755 13 CME W 20/0630 Feb 20/0612 M5/1N N12W73 9825

Mar 17/0820 Mar 17/0850 13 hal0/ 15/2306 Mar 15/2310 M2/1F S08W03 9866

Mar 18/1300 Mar 19/0650 53

Mar 20/1510 Mar 20/1525 19 CME W 18/0254 Mar 18/0231 M1 S09W46 near 9866

Mar 22/2020 Mar 23/1320 16 halo/ 22/1106 Mar 22/1114 M1 W limb 9866

Apr 17/1540 Apr 17/1540 24 halo/ 17/0824 Apr 17/0824 M2/2N S14W34 9906

Apr 21/0225 Apr 21/2320 2,520 halo/ 21/0127 Apr 21/0151 X1/1F S14W84
9906

May 22/1755 May 23/1055 820 halo/ 22/0354 May 22/0354 C5/DSF S19W56

Jul 07/1830 Jul 07/1955 22 CME W 07/1106 Jul 07/1143 M1 W limb

Jul 16/1750 Jul 17/1600 234 halo 15/2008 Jul 15/2008 X3/3B N19W01 10030

Jul 19/1050 Jul 19/1515 13

Jul 22/0655 Jul 23/1025 28 halo 20/2130 Jul 20/2130 X3 SE limb

Aug 14/0900 Aug 14/1620 24 CME NW14/0206 Aug 14/0212 M2/1N N09W54

Aug 22/0440 Aug 22/0940 36 CME SW22/0200 Aug 22/0157 M5/2B S07W62 10069

Aug 24/0140 Aug 24/0835 317 Aug 24/0112 X3/1F S08W90 10069

Sep 07/0440 Sep 07/1650 208 halo 05/1654 Sep 05/1706 C5/DSF N09E28 10102

Nov 09/1920 Nov 10/0540 404 CME SW09/1331 Nov 09/1323 M4/2B S12W29 10180

2003

May 28/2335 May 29/1530 121 halo 28/0050 May 28/0027 X3/2B S07W17 10365

May 31/0040 May 31/0645 27 CME W 31/0230 May 31/0224 M9/2B S07W65 10365

Jun 18/2050 Jun 19/0450 24 halo 17/2255 Jun 17/2255 M6 S08E61 10386

Oct 26/1825 Oct 26/2235 466 halo 26/1819 Oct 26/1819 X1/1N N02W38 10484

Nov 02/1105 Nov 03/0815 1,570 halo 02/0954

Nov 04/2225 Nov 05/0600 353 halo 04/1929 Nov 04/1929 X28/3B S19W83 10486

Nov 21/2355 Nov 22/0230 13 CME SW21/0026 Nov 20/2353 M5/2B N02W17 10501

Dec 02/1505 Dec 02/1730 86 halo 02/1026 Dec 02/0948 C7 W limb

2004

Apr 11/1135 Apr 11/1845 35 SW/11 0430 Apr 11/0419 C9/1F S14W47 10588

Jul 25/1855 Jul 26/2250 2,086 Halo/25 1530 Jul 25/1514 M1/1F N08W33
10652

Sep 13/2105 Sep 14/0005 273 Halo/12 0036 Sep 12/0056 M4/2N N04E42 10672

Sep 19/1925 Sep 20/0100 57 W/19 2224 Sep 19/1712 M1 N03W58 10672

Nov 01/0655 Nov 01/0805 63 CME W01/0606 Backside

Nov 07/1910 Nov 08/0155 495 Halo/07/1706 Nov 07/1606 X2 N09W17 10696

2005

Jan 16/0210 Jan 17/1750 5040 Halo/15/2306 Jan 15/2302 X2 N15W05 10720

May 14/1525 May 15/1120 3140 Halo/13/1722 May 13/1657 M8 N12E11 10759

Jun 16/2200 Jun 17/0500 44 W/16 2003 Jun 16/2002 M4 N09W87 10775

Jul 14/0245 Jul 15/0345 134 Halo/13/1430 Jul 13/1449 M5 N10W80 10786

Jul 27/2300 Jul 29/1715 41 Halo/27/0454 Jul 17/0502 M3 N11E90 10792

Aug 22/2040 Aug 23/1045 330 Halo/22/1730 Aug 22/1727 M5/1N S12W60 10798

Sep 08/0215 Sep 11/0425 1880 E/07 1723 Sep 07/1740 X17/3B S06E89 10808

2006

Dec 06/1555 Dec 07/1930 1980 Halo Dec 05/1035 X9/2N S07E79 10930

Dec 13/0310 Dec 13/0925 698 Halo/13/0254 Dec 13/0240 X3/4B S05W23 10930

=========================================================================================

Please Note:

Proton fluxes are integral 5-minute averages for energies \> 10 MeV,
given in Particle Flux Units (pfu), measured by GOES spacecraft at
Geosynchronous orbit: 1 pfu = 1 p/sq. cm-s-sr.

SWO defines the start of a proton event to be the first of 3 consecutive
data points with fluxes greater than or equal to 10 pfu. The end of an
event is the last time the flux was greater than or equal to 10 pfu.
This definition, motivated by SWO customer needs, allows multiple proton
flares and/or interplanetary shock proton increases to occur within one
SWO proton event. Additional data may be necessary to more completely
resolve any individual proton event.

Different detectors, onboard various GOES spacecraft, have taken the
data since 1976. These proton data were processed using various
algorithms. To date, no attempt has been made to cross-normalize the
resulting proton fluxes.

Flare associations are given, although data about individual Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs), available from SOHO since 1996 only, are
necessary to fully characterize each event.

**APPENDIX C**

**003-SOHO-LASCO CME catalog 2007-01-23**

**(first page only for illustration)**

**APPENDIX D**

**004-SOHO-LASCO CME catalog 2007-01-23-working set**

**(first page only for illustration)**

**APPENDIX E**

**005-CME-SPE-Table 5**

**(results only)**

**APPENDIX F**

**Pie charts and Venn diagrams of the results**

![](media/image4.wmf){width="5.999305555555556in"
height="8.890277777777778in"}

![](media/image5.wmf){width="5.9944444444444445in"
height="7.914583333333334in"}

![](media/image6.wmf){width="6.0in" height="7.959027777777778in"}

![](media/image7.wmf){width="6.157638888888889in"
height="8.921527777777778in"}

**APPENDIX G**

**Feedback from Dr. Sten Odenwald, NASA**

**2/8/2007**

Francesca,

You made a great start by selecting the CME-SPE pairs that were close to
each other in time.

Generally, the CME happens first followed by the SPE.

Solar proton Events are caused by protons that are accelerated within
the shock front of the CME as it gets close to Earth, so the SPE date
and time will be 1-3 days after the first sighting of the CME eruption
on the sun.

Part of the art of science is to work with data in its raw form, and
recast it in a way that lets you more clearly see or examine the
correlations you are interested in studying.

\...

I really need to see the final results to your study very soon. This is
not a \'goofy\' project, but one in which you are really helping me with
an important part of my research. I could do this work myself and spend
a few days doing it efficiently, but I have other things that I need to
do in this project and this is only a piece of the puzzle.

For the last two years I have been creating a sophisticated mathematical
model of what happens to our communication satellites during a severe
solar storm. These storms have many components to them (SPEs, magnetic
disturbances, clouds of high-energy particles) and to make the models
accurate I need to incorporate all the statistically meaningful
correlations I can deduce from past solar storms and what they did to
satellites.

Your contribution will be to help me understand one small part of this
big picture, and if you do it well, I will be more than happy to
acknowledge your efforts in the paper I will be giving at the Space
Weather Conference in Boulder Colorado this April\...so that's a bit of
motivation for you should you need it.

I am just delighted to have a high school student working with me on
this project. I have two other high school students helping me with
other aspects of this problem and we are having quite a lot of fun with
it.

Dr. Odenwald

NASA

**3/12/2007**

Francesca,\
\
WOW!  This is fantastic work and exactly what I was looking for, without
doing this hard work myself ;\>)

To test for significance ... Take each of your findings and evaluate
their probability (odds). This will help us assess whether it is more
likely that the findings are more consistent with randomness or with
some valid correlation.\
\
Dr. Odenwald

**3/14/2007**

Francesca,

I think you have done a fantastic job with the data, and your statements
in section III are quite sufficient to make the cases that you did.
Based on your highest confidence statements, you have made the case that
fast-moving Halo CMEs headed towards earth are the most likely origins
for solar proton events. Practically speaking, this means that if a
satellite owner determines that a CME is directed towards earth and is
moving faster than about 1000 km/sec, it could produce the conditions
needed for disrupting satellite operations. Last question to you...at a
speed of 1500 km/sec, how many days will it take the CME to reach earth
located 148 million km from the sun? That's the amount of time the
satellite owner will have to take some kind of action to protest their
satellites.

I look forward to reading your final report...and please do take some
pictures of the poster when you are done!

Dr. Odenwald

**3/19/2007**

Francesca,

What a great job\...and an Olympic Fencer too. What an incredible
schedule of work/study you must have to keep it all going!!

\... let me know what the reactions are to your work. It is an
impressive piece of research for a high school student.

Dr. Odenwald

NASA