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**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 03-03

March 2003

**USDA'S Foreign Agricultural Service Celebrates 50^th^ Anniversary**

**Bumper 2002/03** **Argentine Soybean Crop Forecast , see page
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height="1.3118055555555554in"}

^st^ Century tools such as satellite imagery, weather data, and computer
crop models are used to validate and improve global crop production
forecasts.

![](media/image3.wmf)World oilseed production has undergone profound
changes since 1953. Brazil, forecast to produce 51 million tons of
soybeans in 2003 with a projected harvest of 18 million hectares,
harvested just 60,000 hectares in 1953. Oilseeds over the past 50 years
have developed into a major industry, especially soybeans. Soybeans were
important in 1953, but the crop was not the primary oilseed. In 1953,
world soybean production was 17.7 million tons, compared to 16.3 million
for cottonseed and 10.7 million for peanuts. In 2002/03, world soybean
production is estimated at 194 million tons, about six times more than
cottonseed, at 33.3 million, and six times more than peanuts, at 30.7
million. The largest soybean producer in 1953 was the United States,
which produced 7.3 million tons, but only because Manchuria and China
were considered separate countries in the statistics; combined they
produced 9.0 million tons. Today, the United States is the largest
soybean producer, producing 74.3 million tons in 2002/03, 46 percent
more than the second largest producer, Brazil. China, the fourth largest
producer, is estimated to have produced 16.4 million tons. Better
soybean varieties, glyphosate tolerance, and modern cultural practices
have increased yields. World average soybean yield in 1953 was just 1.1
tons per hectare, compared with 2.4 tons per hectare today.

![](media/image4.wmf)Increased yields have improved world cotton
production while globally harvested area has fallen by 2 million
hectares. In 1953, foreign cotton production was 22 million bales of
which the United States produced 16 million. Today, the foreign sector
has outpaced the United States, producing 71 million bales to our 17
million. Area in the foreign sector has increased slightly, whereas area
in the United States has fallen by half. Yields rose 194 percent in the
foreign sector and 104 percent in the United States while area increased
12 percent in the foreign sector and dropped 49 percent in the United
States. The improvement in agronomic practices, high-yield varieties,
and availability of genetically modified cotton have pushed world cotton
production up 130 percent, more than offsetting a 7-percent drop in
world area.

From 1953 to 2002/03, global wheat production doubled while corn
production quadrupled and both are estimated at 567 million tons and 594
million tons, respectively. Wheat production in Asia, mostly China and
India, increased by a factor of 5, while wheat production in Europe
(Eastern and Western Europe) tripled. Corn production in Asia expanded
by a factor of 8, while corn production in South America quadrupled.
U.S. wheat yields more than doubled while corn yields tripled, in the
last 5 decades.

The rise in wheat production is due primarily to yield improvements,
doubling over the past 5 decades. Area and yield increases affected corn
where harvested area has expanded by 50 percent, in addition to yields
more than doubling. Global wheat harvested area remained fairly constant
and U.S. wheat harvested area decreased by 32 percent during this
period. The rise in corn area is largely due to the shift in people's
diets towards meat consumption and corn use in animal feed.

U.S. rice production pales compared to giant foreign rice producers,
China, India, and Indonesia. In 1953, foreign rice production (rough
basis) was 119 million tons while the United States produced 5 million.
Today, the foreign sector has outpaced the United States, producing 559
million tons (375.5 milled basis) to our 10 million (6.6 milled basis).
Area in both sectors has increased, but yields have increased 149
percent in the foreign sector, and 21 percent in the United States,
whereas area increased 89 percent in the foreign sector and 51 percent
in the United States.

##### Argentina: Bumper 2002/03 Soybean Crop Forecast

Argentine soybean production for 2002/03 is forecast at a record 35.0
million tons, up 1.5 million tons or 4 percent from last month and up 17
percent from last year's output of 30.0 million. Soybean area is
forecast at a record 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month
and up 1.1 million or 10 percent from last year's area of 11.4 million.
Yield is forecast at 2.80 tons per hectare, matching the record yield of
1997/98.

Recent field travel by a USDA team found soybean conditions are good to
excellent in central Argentina. Above-normal rainfall came during
planting and vegetative stages (November to December), and ample rains
during critical reproductive stages for first-crop soybeans occurred in
mid-February. Soil moisture and current precipitation should provide
ideal conditions for second-crop soybeans, which will be in the most
critical stage within the next 10 days. First-crop soybeans are planted
in the spring following a winter fallow period, whereas second-crop
soybeans are planted in late spring to early summer following winter
wheat harvest. Several areas are expecting records in either first-crop
yields or second-crop yields. National yields are forecast to match the
record of 1997/98.

Wheat and corn areas have declined to accommodate some of the soybean
area increase. Additionally, new lands are being exploited in
Argentina's northern provinces of Chaco and Santiago del Estero. The
decrease in wheat area, especially in central Argentina, has led to a
decrease in second-crop soybean area. Farmers have opted to plant higher
yielding first-crop soybeans instead. The 2002/03 ratio of first- and
second-crop soybeans is estimated at 82:18, the lowest amount of
second-crop soybeans in the last 8 years.

# 

# Brazil: 2002/03 Corn Production Increases Due to Higher Yield

Brazil's 2002/03 corn production is estimated at 37 million tons, up 1
million from last month and up 4 percent from last year's
drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million
hectares, unchanged from last month and last year. Crop yield is
estimated at a near-record 3.14 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last
year.

# The summer rainy season was slightly delayed this year, but began in earnest in late October. Beneficial soaking rains reached virtually all of the primary corn growing regions by early November, allowing plantings to be completed by early December. Plentiful rainfall and warm seasonal temperatures since planting have allowed the nation's vast corn region to experience near-perfect growing conditions. Currently, the bulk of the crop is at or nearing harvest stage. 

# There have been no significant reports of crop stress, disease, or pest-related problems. Crop yields in most states are expected to reach near-record to record levels owing to the combination of high fertilizer use and excellent season-long moisture conditions. Corn area is expected to remain constant; however, there is an increase in the winter corn area offset by a decrease in the summer corn area.

# 

# Iran: 2002/03 Wheat and Rice Production Higher due to Good Weather

Iran's 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 12 million tons, up 1
million or 9 percent from last month and 30 percent higher than last
year's drought-affected crop. Wheat area is estimated at 6.2 million
hectares, unchanged from last month and 3 percent higher than last year.
Rice production is estimated at 1.8 million tons (2.7 million, rough
basis) up 0.4 million tons or 28 percent above last month and 36 percent
above last year's output. Rice area is revised upward to 0.6 million
hectares, 17 percent above last year.

Producers irrigate all rice areas and 70 percent of the wheat area.
Despite deficits in irrigation supplies created by multiple years of
drought, crops benefited from early season rainfall that occurred in the
irrigated wheat regions in the west and in the rice regions along the
Caspian Coast. Rainfall in most of the northern and northwestern
rain-fed wheat regions was abundant and timely. Reports indicate that
higher quality seeds and improved cultivation contributed to the higher
production.

> **South Africa: 2002/03 Corn Production Statistical Series Updated**
>
> South Africa's 2002/03 corn production is forecast at 9.0 million
> tons, up 1.0 million or 12.5 percent from last month, but down 0.7
> million or 7 percent from last year's crop. Harvested area is
> estimated at 3.5 million hectares, up 200,000 hectares from last month
> and up 150,000 hectares from last year. This month's production
> estimate was increased due to baseline adjustments made to the
> production time series for the past 4 years. The updated production
> time series agrees with official estimates reported by South Africa's
> National Department of Agriculture (NDA), and these estimates are
> greater than the preliminary estimates given by South Africa's
> National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC). NCEC estimates have been
> consistently lower than reported deliveries to silos and millers for
> the past 4 years. Yield estimates were adjusted upwards due to the
> revision of the production baseline; the new estimated yield of 2.57
> tons per hectare is below the 2001/02 yield of 2.90 tons per hectare
> due to drier weather overall this season. Estimated area is near the
> 5-year average, with a projected year to year increase of 150,000
> hectares based on reports collected during field travel.
>
> Recent field travel in the Maize Triangle by a USDA team observed the
> crop in the low-yielding West to be near average due to favorable
> rains during December and January, while the crop in the high-yielding
> East was below average due to below normal rainfall for the entire
> season. Both regions experienced a difficult crop season because
> plantings were delayed by 2-4 weeks to mid-December; heat stress
> occurred during late January; and low soil moisture reserves were
> observed during early February. It appears all major agricultural
> inputs were readily available to farmers and no major pests or disease
> problems were observed.
>
> **India: 2002/03 Peanuts Suffer From Dryness**
>
> The 2002/03 India peanut crop is forecast at 5.4 million tons, down
> 1.3 million or 19 percent from last month and down 2.2 million or 29
> percent from last year. Area is forecast at 6.8 million hectares, down
> 1.3 million or 16 percent from last month and down 1.4 million or 17
> percent from last year. Lack of rainfall during the critical growth
> stages of the Kharif peanut crop lowered production in the major
> producing states of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil
> Nadu. The state of Gujarat, which accounts for 25 to 30 percent of
> India's total crop, experienced a delayed arrival of the monsoon,
> which subsequently affected sowing. Earlier expectations that the crop
> was able to recover were based on the appearance of healthy vegetative
> growth later in the season; however, pod formation was seriously
> affected. The Rabi portion of the crop, which constitutes
> approximately 20 percent of India's total production, is grown in the
> southern states from November to April. This crop has received below
> normal winter precipitation. The effect of less favorable weather is
> being exacerbated by the already low irrigation reserves normally used
> to supplement the crop during critical growth phases.

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-396), March 11,
2003.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service online at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068, or download an order form).**

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, prepared
this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be
released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on April 10, 2003.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6053, South Building

Washington, D.C. 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director Eric Wenberg 202-720-0873 wenberge@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Cotton & Rice Chairperson Ron Roberson 202-720-0879
roberson@fas.usda.gov

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

& Chile

Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

Mexico, Central America,

& Caribbean Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

Canada & Western Europe Jim Tringe 202-720-0882 tringej@fas.usda.gov

Central Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Turkey, Middle East ,

& Southwest Asia Maria Anulacion 202-690-0139 anulacion@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine,

& other FSU States Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

China, Koreas, Japan, & Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
sandene@fas.usda.gov

> Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

> India, & Pakistan

Central & Southern Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

United States Rao Achutuni 202-690-0140 achutuni@fas.usda.gov

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.go