**Risk and Diversification in a Mixed Foraging and Agropastoral Market
Economy in Southwestern Madagascar**

**Principal Investigator: Bruce Winterhalder**

**Co-Principal Investigator: Bram Tucker**

**Abstract**

9808984

Winterhalder

Social scientists ordinarily classify the economic life of communities
by a dominant mode of subsistence, such as foraging, agriculture,
pastoralism, petty manufacture, etc. This dissertation research project
by a cultural anthropology student at the University of North Carolina
will study how hunter‑gatherers of Madagascar meet their needs for
subsistence and consumer goods thorough a diverse array of economic and
ecological decisions. While all the members of the society hunt and
gather to some extent, many households also maintain a diverse portfolio
of maize and tuber cultivation, cattle and goat herding, fishing and
manufacturing of mats and baskets for sale. Within this suite of
possibilities a particular household is faced with options, between
subsistence and cash, activities in different environmental zones,
immediate and delayed returns, men, women and children\'s labor, and
among diverse markets. This project will study the economic activities
and decisions of a set of households in order to understand how risk is
managed to survive in an unpredictable environment with a rudimentary
technological tool kit. Understanding strategies within such a diverse
economy is vital for understanding the general processes of economic and
cultural change, whether they occur at the origins of agriculture or in
the ongoing transition of small, rural populations into the global
market economy.

*Link to an image of the cover sheet of 9808984, Winterhalder & Tucker*

*Link to the reviews of 9808984, Winterhalder & Tucker*

**I.** **Problem:** The Mikea hunter‑gatherers of the arid forests of
southwestern Madagascar meet their needs for subsistence and consumer
goods through a diverse array of economic and ecological decisions.
While all Mikea hunt and gather to some extent, Mikea households also
maintain a diverse portfolio of maize and tuber cultivation, cattle and
goat herding, fishing, manufacturing mats and baskets for sale, wage
labor, and buying and selling in local markets. Within this suite of
possibilities the Mikea are faced with assorted options: between
subsistence and cash; between different environmental zones; between
immediate and delayed returns; among men, women, and children\'s labor;
and among several markets where local differences in supply and demand
have produced alternative price structures. They survive in an
unpredictable environment by skillfully blending these options. They
succeed despite the common claim that these different activities not
only represent distinct modes of livelihood, incongruous \"levels of
complexity,\" or formerly, evolutionary \"stages\" (Tylor 1871; Morgan
1964), but also incommensurate economic rationalities as well (e.g.,
Sahlins, 1972). Understanding strategies within a mixed economy^1^ is
vital for understanding the general processes of economic and cultural
change, whether they occur at the origins of agriculture or in the
ongoing transition of small, rural populations into the global market
economy.

I will conduct a quantitative ethnographic investigation of Mikea
ecologicaVeconomic decisions at the individual and household level, to
determine (1) why the Mikea diversify their economy to this extent, and
(2) what factors motivate their participation in one activity versus
another at any particular time. Field work will last 19 months^2^ at the
small foraging hamlet of Belo and the neighboring agricultural villages
of Vorehe and Bevondro, where I conducted predissertation ethnographic
research from June to August 1996 (Appendix, Fig. 1). I will use
mathematical modeling techniques from evolutionary ecology and
microeconomics to test the hypothesis that economic diversification by
the Mikea is a response to risk, when the alternative mechanisms,
sharing and storage, are too costly.

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\' This definition deviates from the usage by many political economists,
for whom a mixed economy is free‑market capitalism combined with
government intervention.

2 Fifteen months supported by Fulbright (IIE), currently underway. and a
four‑month extension proposed here to NSF.

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The long‑term goal is to design and test models of decision‑making
applicable to mixed economies and economic transitions in general,
especially: (1) the transition from foraging to farming (and
vice‑versa); and (2) the transition from a subsistence economy to a
market economy (and vice­versa). The combination of ethnographic data and
mathematical modeling will help to elucidate the general processes of
cultural change and the origins of diversity in human economic and
ecological behavior. This understanding could serve as an important
guide to humane and effective solutions to development and environmental
crises. For the Mikea, these crises include poverty and unsustainable
exploitation of a fragile environment with a high degree of species
endemism (Du Puy and Moat 1996:209, 215; Randrianarijaona 1989).

II\. **Background:** This dissertation project will be the first
long‑term study in a project spearheaded by Dr. Robert Kelly of the
University of Louisville and Dr. Lin Poyer of the University of
Cincinnati, in conjunction with Dr. Jean‑Franpois Rabedimy of the
University of Toliara, Madagascar and Prof. Tsiazonera of *le Centre d
\'Education, Documentation et Recherche aux Traditions Orales de
Madagascar* (CEDRATOM). This team, along with several American and
Malagasy graduate students (including myself in 1996) has conducted
fieldwork in the Mikea region in the summers of 1993, 1994, 1995, and
1996. Theoretical and topical foci of the Mikea Project range from
ethnoarchaeology to ethnic identity (Kelly and Poyer 1994). The project
proposed herein is intended as a contribution to the understanding of
(1) mixed economies, (2) economic and ecological adaptations to risk,
and (3) processes of cultural change, from perspectives of evolutionary
ecology and microeconomics.

**1. The mixed economy:** Anthropology, in its struggle to understand
the great behavioral diversity of human societies, has repeatedly
classified the world\'s populations into discrete subsistence categories
(e.g., \"forager,\" \"agriculturalist,\" \"pastoralist\"). However,
there is no reason why a population, household, or individual should not
practice a combination of economic possibilities, depending upon
ecological factors and the options historically available to them. For
example, there probably has not been in the past century a population
that has subsisted only by hunting and gathering (see Hill et. al.
1987:5; Lee 1979:414‑420; E. A. Smith 1991:357‑395). Layton et. al.
(1991) and Upham (1994) provide provocative discussions of the
prevalence of mixed economies in extant and prehistoric societies and of
their possible significance to the processes of cultural change; yet the
ecological and historical factors that determine the choice of
activities and degree of investment within a mixed economy demand
conceptual and empirical attention (E. A. Smith 1991). The Mikea
situation, in which each household has its own diverse portfolio of
foraging, agricultural, pastoral, manufacturing, and marketing
activities, provides a fruitful opportunity for this investigation.

**2. Adaptations to risk:** Economic diversification may serve to
minimize risk by dividing income sources into \"multiple exposure
units,\" each with potentially uncorrelated variance (Mehr and Cammack
1952). Alternative risk‑minimizing mechanisms include sharing and
storage (Colson 1979; Cashdan 1990; Winterhalder 1986; Halstead and
O\'Shea 1989), both of which appear to be limited among the Mikea.
Although there have been attempts to model the trade‑offs between
different risk‑reducing mechanisms (Rowley‑Conwy and Zvelebil 1989;
Winterhalder 1986), these models have received little investigation or
testing.

The topic of risk has received theoretical attention from ecologists
(Stephens and Charnov 1982; Stephens and Paton 1986; Weissberg 1991;
Houston and McNamara 1985), economists (Rothschild and Stiglitz 1970,
Roumasset et. al. 1979), archaeologists (Halstead and O\'Shea 1989) and
ecological anthropologists (Cashdan 1985, 1990; Winterhalder 1986;
Hegmon 1989). It is possibile that Mikea foragers diversify into
agricultural and market activities in order to reduce risk.

**3. The processes of cultural change:** Models that explain why people
choose a particular combination of economic activities can be applied to
the question of why groups abandon some suites of activities for others.
The classic anthropological case study of economic transition is from
hunting and gathering to agriculture. Early explanations, now
universally rejected, held that this transition was a natural
progression from one developmental stage to another (Tylor 1871; Morgan
1964). More recent explanations emphasize climate change (Pompelly 1908;
Childe 1936; Bar‑Yosef and Meadow 1994), system disequilibrium (Flannery
1968, 1969), and population pressure (Cohen 1977, Keeley 1988) as
driving forces. A few recent studies have examined the role of risk in
economic transitions (Larson et. al. 1994; Winterhalder and Goland
1997). Studies of subsistence choice in living populations would
illuminate the factors motivating increasing agricultural activities in
the past.

**III.** **Hypotheses and Objectives:** This project addresses four
interrelated questions about Mikea choice of activities and related
processes of economic change: (1) what motivates Mikea individuals and
households to diversify income sources? (2) what motivates Mikea
individuals and households to choose their particular set of activities,
and why do these differ among individuals and households within the same
community? (3) what motivates Mikea foragers to increase or decrease
their investment of time and energy in agricultural activities? (4) what
motivates Mikea within a subsistence economy to increase or decrease
their investment of time and energy in market activities?

For each of these questions I will examine the role of at least two
potential motives, risk minimization and currency maximization, within a
framework of hypotheses based on Stephens and Charnov\'s (1982) Z‑score
model. If \"strategy\" is defined as a particular suite or portfolio of
economic activities, then the yield of a particular strategy (in terms
of multiple currencies, including calories, cash, and protein^3^) can be
conceived of as a frequency distribution with a mean return rate and
variance around this mean^4^ (Appendix, Fig. 2). This simple model
allows for the evaluation of several alternative hypotheses about why
the Mikea practice diversification:

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3\. Classically, evolutionary ecologists have chosen calories as a
single currency for evaluating decisions, while economists normally use
cash or \`\`utility3, I will evaluate Mikea decisions in light of three
currencies; (1) cash and (2) calories, for food and market goods are
both important to the Mikea, and (3) protein, because the Mikea diet
appears to be replete with carbohydrates but deficient in protein.
Rather than combine multiple currencies into the same model (which would
require linear programming), I will evaluate currencies separately in
the same types of models. Trade‑offs between currencies will be modeled
using indifference curves / isoquants (see Hill 1988), and a combined
Agricultural Household Model from agricultural economics (see Singh et.
al. 1986).

4\. This simple calculation assumes that payoffs from different
strategies are normally‑distributed.

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H1: RISK MINIMIZATION: The Mikea live in a dry environment characterized
by patchy and unpredictable rainfall. Mikea choose strategies with the
lowest probability of shortfall or loss (risk). Following Stephens and
Charnov (1982), a risk‑minimizer will choose a strategy that (a)
minimizes variance when minimum requirements are low relative to the
means, or (b) maximizes variance when minimum requirements are high
relative to means (see figure 2). Households practice different
strategies because of different minimum requirements or different
currency priorities.

H2: CURRENCY MAXIMIZATION: Mikea choose strategies that yield the
highest possible net

returns in a currency per unit time. A profit‑maximizer chooses the
strategy with the greatest

mean, regardless of variance or the level of requirements. Risk, if
present, is mitigated by

alternatives such as sharing or storage. Inter‑household differences in
choice of strategies is

explained by different currency priorities.

H3: COMBINATION: Mikea choice of strategies is motivated by risk
minimization in some

currency or currencies, and currency maximization in other currencies.
When looking at the

household level of analysis, some individuals will minimize risk and
other will maximize income.

H0: NULL HYPOTHESIS: There is no significant relationship between choice
of strategy, the mean return rate, the variance in return rate, and the
minimum requirements in a currency. If this proves

to be the case, there are several sub‑hypotheses which I will consider:

> *(a) Uncertainty:* Mikea lack sufficient information about the
> probability of payoffs to choose an optimizing strategy. Strategies
> are chosen randomly, and in high‑risk cases shortfalls are common.
> Uncertainty is most likely to be significant when information is
> costly to obtain, or when considerable amounts of information are
> required to make an informed decision, as when environmental
> fluctuation is great and aperiodic.
>
> *(b) Satisficing:* Mikea choice of strategy is motivated by a desire
> to satisfy a minimum requirement in an arbitrary period of time,
> without concern for probabilistic loss or profit maximization. This
> hypothesis is potentially difficult to confirm because satisficing,
> will often produce a result that resembles that of an optimized goal
> (see discussion in Elster 1986:25‑26). It is also potentially
> difficult to distinguish between the results of a successful
> satisfieing decision and a less‑than‑successffil decision with an
> optimized goal (Stephens and Krebs 1986: 180). This hypothesis will be
> supported only if informants choose strategies that meet a minimum
> requirement in an arbitrary period of time and without regards to
> variance, even when other *known and available* strategies would offer
> more optimal solutions.

The required data to test these hypotheses are, minimally: (a) the
strategies practiced by a variety of people, and (b) the mean and
variance in returns (in cash, calories, and protein) for each activity,
net of costs (materials, energy, and time). In addition, data on
alternative risk‑reducing mechanisms, mainly storage and sharing, are
necessary to fully evaluate the role of diversification in H.. Ancillary
data detailing the recent politics and history of the region and of the
informants themselves would illustrate the social and historical
constraints within which decisions are made. I will obtain these data
via a 19 month field project during which I will pursue the following
objectives:

> *1\> Establish what strategies exist, and who practices them:* Track
> participation in economic activities of the 30 residents and 7
> households at the Mikea community of Belo to define their choice of
> strategies. I will use interviews, ethnographic observation, and scan
> sampling time allocation methods (see section V below);
>
> 2\> *Measure mean and variance of payoffs from activities composing
> the strategies,* using harvest yields, slaughter rates, foraging
> returns, market data, and existing agricultural data sets;
>
> *3\> Gauge the degree of climatic variation in time and space,* using
> multiple amateur weather stations, published and government
> statistics, and aerial photographs from the last 50 years;
>
> *4\> Time and labor allocation by age, sex, and time:* Measure the
> activity‑specific, time and energy investment of the NIikea, using
> scan sampling and focal‑follow methods;
>
> 5\> *Market opportunities:* survey the financial opportunities
> provided by local markets, by recording the number of vendors for each
> product and their asking and selling prices;
>
> 6\> *Sharing and Storage:* Measure the costs and benefits of
> alternative risk‑reducing mechanisms, storage and sharing, using time
> allocation methods, interviews, and ethnographic observation;
>
> 7\> *Regional oral history:* Track changes in the availability and
> profitability of economic options through recent history, using
> oral‑history interviews.

**IV. Preliminary research and choice of field sites:** Predissertation
research^5^ with the Mikea confirmed the logistical and social
feasibility of this project, gained the confidence of Mikea informants
and their consent to continue research at Belo, and verified the utility
of the proposed methodologies.

This project will be located at Belo, with secondary focus on the
agricultural villages of Bevondro and Vorehe (Appendix, Fig. 1). The
Belo foraging hamlet is a collection of nine bark and thatch huts and is
home to the members of seven closely‑related families and about 30
individuals (I recorded genealogies in 1996). Time allocation data I
collected over the course of 30 days in July suggest that Belo is
primarily a locus of foraging, maize production, mat manufacturing, and
animal

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5\. The predissertation project was funded with a Travel Grant from
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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husbandry (Appendix, Fig. 3). A substantial portion of the economic
activity of Belo families occurs in the neighboring agricultural village
of Bevondro (8 km away), where they tend fields of sweet potato and
maniac. The nearest market, which the people of Belo use to convert
foraged, manufactured, and agricultural products into cash, is Vorehe
(15 km distant). Data I collected in 1996 indicate that an average of
12% of vendors at the weekly market in Vorehe sell foraged products,
mostly tubers (wild *Diascorea sp.)* and tenrecs *(Echinops sp.* ?), as
opposed to 0% and 2% of vendors at the two other markets in the region
(Antanimieva, Soahazo).

**V. Methods:** I will accomplish my seven objectives using both
quantitative and qualitative methods. I field‑tested methods 1, 2, 4,
and 7 during predissertation work with the Mikea in Summer 1996.

**1. Scan‑sampling time allocation** measures time and labor investment
of individuals in various actions or activities (Borgerhoff Mulder and
Caro 1985; Hames 1992). I will record the activity of every individual
present in Belo twice a day at randomly selected times, for each day on
alternating months. This method produces a versatile data set that
addresses questions of (a) labor allocation by age and gender; (b)
scheduling of activities; and (c) interpersonal associations, which will
be used for mapping sharing relationships.

Preliminary analysis of time allocation data that I collected at Belo in
1996 suggest that during the dry season age and gender roles are
negotiated so that the members of a Mikea household practice diverse but
complementary activities (Appendix, Fig. 3): women specialize in meal
preparation and mat manufacturing, men specialize in housework and maize
processing, and children perform most of the foraging. I hypothesize
that the children are providing immediate returns to support their
families while their parents invest in delayed returns activities such
as agriculture and pastoralism. With few exceptions (e.g. Hawkes et. al.
1995), children\'s foraging has been neglected in the hunter‑gatherer
literature. In terms of my hypotheses, individual strategies may be
complementary and make a vital contribution to the collective strategy
of a household, if the household members are in a sharing relationship.

**2. Focal‑follow time allocation** involves following a focal
individual over the course of an activity to record (a) the procedures
involved; (b) time spent performing different parts of the activity; (c)
distance traveled; (d) energy expenditure,using indirect calorimetry
(Durnin and Passmore 1967); and, in the case of hunting or gathering,
(e) foraging returns (springscale). I will use this method to document
the many foraging and farming activities of the Mikea. To understand
variation in efficiency, it will be necessary to conduct multiple
follows of individuals of different age categories and sexes (see Thomas
1972:83‑92), and in different seasons (three are locally recognized). I
will conduct at least 10 focal follows for each activity, each age and
sex category, and each season.

3a. **Harvest yields** gauge the relative costs and benefits of
cultivation and animal husbandry activities. The Mikea at Belo cultivate
three crops and tend two varieties of livestock. I will collect data on
(a) how many hours are spent per kilogram of harvested product; (b)
kilograms harvested per unit of land; (c) who is involved in the labor;
(d) what tasks are involved and how they are scheduled; (e) how the
harvest is divided among participants; and (f) where, how, and how long
products are stored. Market observations and scan‑sampling will reveal
what portion of the produce is sold versus eaten.

Apparently cattle and goats are slaughtered only for ceremonies. When an
animal is slaughtered, I will record (a) whose animal is slaughtered;
(b) the apparent health of the animal; (c) the purpose of the slaughter;
and (d) how the meat is distributed.

**3b.** **Spatial, temporal, and interannual variance in harvest
yields:** I will estimate spatial variance in harvest yields by touring
maize and tuber fields, and wild tuber patches, measuring (a) the number
of plants in a 5 meter squared block, (2) the return per plant (number
of maize ears, number and size of tubers), and (3) the total area
(length and width) of the field/patch.

Although it will not be possible for me to measure directly the
interannual variance in crop yields beyond the two‑year sample of the
present field research, relevant data exists. Agricultural research
projects, including *Le Projet Sud‑Ouest* by *le Cooperation Francaise,*
as well as individual research projects by the *Ecole l \'Agricole* at
the University of Antananarivo and the Malagasy governmental
organization *FoFiFa (Foibe Fikarohana momba ny Fampandrosoana ny
Ambanivohitra)^6^,* have measured maize and tuber production in regions
of southwestern Madagascar over several years. Although most of these
data do not come from the Mikea Forest itself, the agricultural methods
employed are the same^7^ and the land and microclimatic variations are
similar to that which exists within the Mikea region. Older sources
provide figures for crop production and production variance from within
the Mikea Forest itself (Ottino 1963; Marchal and Dandoy 1972).
Together, these data form a basis for estimating the range of variation
that is likely to afflict Mikea agricultural harvests.

Additional sources of information include records of agricultural
exports from the civil authorities in the ports of Toliara and Morombe
(maize sold by the Mikea is ultimately exported); and aerial photographs
from 1949 to 1990^8^ that would reveal the amount of land within the
forest dedicated to slash‑and‑burn maize production in different years.

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6\. Also known as CENRADERU, *le Centre IVational de la Recherche
Appliquee au Developpement Rural.*

7\. In his *Memoire de Maltrise,* Rebara ( 1996) traces the origins of
slash‑and‑burn maize cultivation *(hatsake) to* m\~grants from the
Androy region of southern Madagascar. The Mikea and their agropastoral
neighbors, the Masikoro, Mahafaly, Bara, and Sakalava, all use similar
maize cultivation methods derived from this common source.

8\. Aerial photographs of the region exist from
1949,1955,1966,1970,1980, and 1990, and are in the possession of several
researchers involved with the Mikea Project (Robert Kelly, James Yount,
Glen Green). Pending funding, Glen Green (Georgia) is planning to do a
GIS analysis of the change in amount of land dedicated to slash‑and‑burn
maize agriculture over time. Preliminary results from this study should
be available in time for the analysis I propose here.

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**4. Market surveys:** Following Trager (1995), C. Smith (1985), and
methods employed in the 1996 field season, for each weekly market in the
agricultural village of Vorehe I will count the number of vendors for
each product and record: (a) the gender of the vendor; (b) the number,
type, size, and taxa of the products; (c) the extent to which the
products have been processed; (d) the asking price; and (e) the
product\'s origin. It may be possible to obtain similar information from
written tax records.

I performed market surveys at three different markets that are
accessible to Mikea in 1996. Markets located as close as 10 km can
reflect significant differences in supply and demand, and thus price,
especially if they are located in different environments. I hypothesize
that Mikea strategically choose which markets to attend and when to
aKend them in order to buy and sell at optimum prices. I frequently
observed Mikea individuals reselling at a profit goods bought from
others. Also, Mikea frequently visit markets just to collect price
information.

**5. Food logs and anthropometry:** Over the course of five days at the
beginning of alten\~ative months, informants will be asked to recall all
the food they have consumed during the previous day. Basic
anthropometric measurements, including height, weight and skin folds
(using calipers) will be taken of all willing individuals. These data
will be used to estimate body composition (percentage of body fat;
Durnin and Womersley 1974). With this nutritional data set, I can gauge
the relative success of different economic strategies during different
parts of the year for (DuDour and Teutel 1995). Many populations
experience periodic nutritional **and energetic stress due** to seasonal
food shortage, which expresses itself as weight and fat loss (Bailey et.
al.‑ 1992).

6\. **Climatic data:** To determine climatic heterogeneity in the Mikea
region, I will collect basic climatological data. Four atmospheric
indices are significant: daily high and low temperatures; windspeed and
direction; humidity; and rainfall.

There appears to be great climatic variation across short geographical
distances. One can grow wet rice in Antanimieva, but just 10 hen west in
Vorehe there is no standing ground water and only tubers can be
cultivated; 15 km farther west, in the Mikea Forest hamlet of Belo, the
environment is too dry for any crops except maize. I will arrange for
weather data recording in the communities of Antanimieva, Vorehe, Belo,
at the coastal village of Ankindranoka. Weather data at Belo will be
collected by myself or a field assistant. The villages of Antanimieva,
Vorehe, and Ankindranoka all have primary schools, and I will arrange
with local teachers for these data to be collected as a class science
project. The weather instruments will be given to the primary schools at
the end of the project.

Interannual temperature and rainfall data from the region exist in a
variety of sources, including: the *Service National de Meterologie; le
Bulletin Climatologique* (a special publication of the *Bulletin de
Madagascar);* and for a more historical view, Donque (1975) and Marchal
and Dandoy (1972). Researchers in neighboring regions have offered me
several years of climatic data that they have collected (Robert Dewar,
personal communication).

**7. Oral history interviews** provide a method for tracking the
economic involvement and decisions of individuals through time (see
Stevens 1993). Such data reveal (a) patterns of personal and household
mobility; (b) patterns of economic involvement; (c) the history of the
Belo settlement; and (d) how subsistence options have changed through
time. Of particular interest will be the history of Mikea participation
in markets, use of currency, and changes in Mikea life strategies
associated with French colonialism. It is possible that the Mikea left
an agricultural way of life less than a hundred years ago to forage in
the forest and avoid tax‑collecting French officials (Kelly and Poyer
1994).

In addition to the formal methods described above, I will also engage in
*ad hoc* interviews, observations, and participant observation.

**VI. Sampling strategy:** Alternating months will be dedicated to
scan‑sampling time allocation at Belo, during which time focal follow
time allocation, harvest yields, and oral history interviews will be
conducted opportunistically. At the beginning of each non‑scan‑sampling
month, five days will be dedicated to anthropometry and food logs. The
remaining three weeks will be devoted opportunistically to focal
follows, harvest yields, oral history interviews, and rest. Market
surveys will be conducted by myself or a research assistant on
alternating Wednesdays.

Few researchers have spent more than a few months in the Mikea Forest,
and few if any have visited during the wet season. I will be among the
first to chart seasonal changes in the environment and Mikea behavior,
and to describe the ecological and economic adaptations of these
versatile people.

**VII. Logistics and Language:** Because the Belo community participates
in activities that occur throughout the Mikea Forest, I will employ a
research assistant to simultaneously collect the same types of data as
myself in neighboring locations. I will also hire a personal translator,
while continuing learning the local language, to smooth relations with
hosts and for making the required traditional formal speeches called
*Kabary.* While the colonial language of Madagascar is French, the Mikea
and their neighbors speak only their local dialect of Malagasy. I have
arranged with Prof. Tsiazonera at the University of Toliara, director of
CEDRATOM, who is himself a native speaker of the Mikea/Masikoro dialect,
for private language instruction (Prof. Tsiazonera was a member of
ou**r** research team at Belo in 1996). Instruction will take place in
Toliara during the two months prior to the commencement of the 19 month
field study in the Mikea Forest.

**VIII. Theoretical and Social Significance:**

**1. Significance to Anthropology:** The proposed project examines the
diversity of human economic and ecological behaviors in the specific
ethno‑geographic context of rural southwestern Madagascar. It seeks
explanations for the origins of this diversity within a theoretical
context provided by evolutionary ecology. This project emphasizes the
importance of mixed economies and investigates the motives that
determine their composition. Because natural world is often
unpredictable, risk‑minimization is often a significant economic motive
and diversification a possible response. Mixed economies may vary in
composition over time, resulting in a transition between lifeways, as
between foraging and farming, or between a subsistence economy and the
market.

It is possible that diversification from an economy of subsistence
foraging to a mixed economy of markets and agriculture occurs when risks
can no longer be effectively buffered using sharing and storage.
Confirmation could lead to a re‑examination of anthropological studies
of cultural change. The vacillation between foraging and farming that
Upman (1994) notes for the American Southwest, or the adoption of
intensive grain agriculture by Natufian foragers in the Levant
(Bar‑Yosef and Meadow 1995) or the willing participation of present‑day
Mbuti foragers in commercial animal harvesting in the Ituri Forest in
Zaire (Hart 1978) could be understood as similar responses to
environmental risk. New interpretations of major subsistence shifts in
the archaeological record of past societies may be understandable with
the same models that predict the outcome of policy decisions that change
subsistence options in the modern world.

**2. Ecology and economics:** Evolutionary ecology and microeconomics
share a common set of theoretic guidelines and analytic tools, including
decision theory and optimal modeling (E. A. Smith 1991). However,
evolutionary ecology has traditionally dealt exclusively with
subsistence economies, leaving markets to economists. This project will
attempt to unify these two parallel approaches into a single framework
for the quantitative analysis of mixed economies.

Data collected as part of this project can also be applied to several
existing issues in the economic and ecological literature. An example is
level of analysis. Most studies of foragers are focused on
individual‑level decisions (see recent discussion in Nettle 1997), while
agricultural models often focus on the decisions of households (Singh
et. al. 1986). This study will examine decisions at both levels. The
data collected in this project could be used to devise and test a model
of how household decisions are negotiated by the differing and often
conflicting motives of individual household members, using game theory
(Smith and Boyd 1990; Packer and Ruttan 1988).

A second example is the issue of foraging decisions. Traditional optimal
foraging models focus on net energetic return rate per unit time.
Several stochastic variants have been suggested (Stephens and Charnov
1982; Winterhalder 1986; Weissberg 1991; Tucker 1996), but they require
testing. Also, models in which resource selection depends on trade‑offs
between the energetic value of a prey item and its market value have yet
to be designed or tested. The focal‑follow data from this study could be
applied to questions of risk‑sensitive foraging behavior as well as dual
currency prey choice models.

**3. Policy.** One of the primary lessons from evolutionary ecology and
microeconomic studies is the central importance of the individual
decision‑maker. And yet, environmental and agricultural development
schemes are often designed with a \"top down\" approach and **the means
for making** changes involve altering an individual or household\'s
behavior in ways that contradict people\'s daily needs and motivations
(for examples from Madagascar see Jarosz 1993; Ghmire 1994). This study,
in concordance with the goals of household models from agricultural
economics (Singh et. al. 1986) and the evolutionary ecology\'s tenant of
methodological individualism (Smith and Winterhalder 1992:46‑47)
promotes a \"bottom‑up\" approach. It is hoped that this study will
contribute to effective and humane policy decisions in this financially
poor and environmentally threatened region.

**4. Significance for the Mikea:** The Mikea have apparently been part
of a mixed economy of foraging, agriculture, and pastoralism since Molet
(1958) visited them nearly half a century ago. However, the market
economy, in which paper and minted species replaces the subsistence
value of wild species, appears to be quite new for the Mikea. The value
of money to buy tobacco, alcohol, and clothing may be jeopardizing the
long‑term economic stability of the Mikea, as they specialize increasing
in cash‑reward activities. Foremost among these activities is
slash‑and‑burn maize cultivation *(hatsake).* The Mikea Forest, like
many in Madagascar, has a high degree of species endemism (Du Puy and
Moat 1996:209, 215; Randrianarijaona 1989) and is slow to regenerate.
Several Mikea individuals told me in 1996 that they recognize that
*hatsake* will destroy their forest in the long run, but that the
short‑run need for cash is insurmountable. A clearer understanding of
Mikea economic strategies and ecological decisions could help.

**IX.** **NSF Funding Request:** With major support from a Fulbright
(IIE) grant, I traveled to Madagascar in September, 1997. Since then, I
have undergone intensive language training program with a professor in
Toliara, southern Madagascar, in order to learn the fundamentals of the
Mikea dialect of the Malagasy language. In mid‑October my field
assistants and I traveled to the Mikea forest and initiated the field
project outlined in this proposal. While the Fulbright term officially
lapses in June, 1998, I plan to prolong the award for a total of 15
months, terminating in November, 1998.

I am requesting NSF funding in order to extend the current project for a
period of four months, April through July, 1999. This supplemental
funding will considerably fortify the data ­collection effort already
underway and enable critical analyses that would otherwise be
impossible.

The risk factors affecting agricultural decisions occur largely at an
inter‑annual temporal scale. A fifteen‑month field project can at best
investigate spatial and limited temporal scales, such as daily and
seasonal variation. Collection of inter‑annual variance in production,
for obvious reasons, requires more time. As planned, I will speculate
about the inter‑annual variations in climate and production using
existing meteorological and agricultural data from regions surrounding
the Mikea Forest field site. At best this can produce an approximation
of conditions found *within* the field site, where weather exposure,
ground cover, and soil type are widely regarded as unique, not just in
Madagascar but in the world (see Du Puy and Moat 1996: 209, 215). It
would be highly desirable to obtain data representing a second
agricultural cycle within the Forest. This still only provides two
points for comparison, but these points may very well be different
enough to be illustrative of larger trends. The proposed, four‑month
extension includes:

*(1) A second year of climate data.* Starting 15 October 1997 I
installed automatic self‑logging pluviometers and temperature loggers at
six locations in and around the Mikea Forest. These devices
automatically record the rainfall and temperature. The loggers will be
left in place at the conclusion of the project in November and will
continue logging for another year (when the batteries will expire). A
return trip in 1999 would enable me to collect these logging devices and
thus effectively double the amount of climatic data available for
analysis. *(2) A second cycle of market price data.* A school teacher in
the village of Vorehe, home of the most important market in the Mikea
Forest region, has agreed to collect price and market size information
at the weekly market, from November 1998 until the proposed return date
of April 1999. This would enable me to make inter‑annual comparisons of
price fluctuations.

*(3) Measure the maize harvest in April, 1999.* These data can be
directly compared with maize harvest data collected in April 1998, from
the same fields. I will be able to compare harvests in two years that
experience different climatic exposure, providing a preliminary estimate
of the range of variation that Mikea cultivators expect when making
planting decisions. In addition, a second year of agricultural data will
provide a longitudinal perspective on maize planting decisions. Third,
by revisiting the same plots a second year, I will be able to determine
if, and to what degree, harvests diminish with continued use of the same
plots. This final point is significant because the slash‑and‑burn
planting method practiced by the Mikea in the arid forests does not
appear to be sustainable.

*(4) Longitudinal and dynamic perspective on portfolio management.* All
Mikea households diversify their portfolio of activities and no two
households have the same portfolio. Portfolios are likely to change from
year to year based on the success of strategies in the previous year.
The four‑month extension will illuminate how and why portfolios change
through a second annual cycle.

\(5\) *A second complete cycle of spot‑check time allocation for the
month of May, a third cycle of spot‑check time allocation for the month
of July.* The months of May and July 1999 would be spent at the Mikea
hamlet of Belo where I would conduct spot‑check time allocation studies
using the same methodology planned for alternating months of the present
project. In addition, time allocation data was collected in Belo in July
of 1996. The proposed elongation would produce two different years of
time allocation data for the month of May and three for the month of
July, thus providing valuable perspective on inter‑annual variation in
time allocation at the same location. (6) *Revisit after preliminary
analysis.* This four month extension will allow follow‑up inquiries
based on observations provoked by preliminary data analysis and writing,
and discussion with my PhD advisory committee.

In conclusion, the proposed budget of \$5336 funds four additional
months of field research (April ‑ July, 1999), allowing me to complete a
second annual cycle for key data sets. This will facilitate inter‑annual
comparisons of climatic exposure, maize production, portfolio
management, and time allocation that will otherwise remain speculative.
It will provide a more longitudinal and dynamic perspective to Mikea
economic decisions.

**Tucker, Appendix, page 1**

**Figure** 1: Map of field site in southwestern Madagascar, with the
location of villages and hamlets mentioned in the text. The main field
site will be the foraging hamlet of Belo, which is within a dry woodland
known as the Mikea Forest. Most of households at Belo also own houses in
the agricultural village of Bevondro on the edge of the forest, where
they tend fields of maniac and sweet potatoes. The village of Vorehe is
the location of the most important market for foraged goods, and is also
the home of a Lutheran Mission. Other markets of potential importance to
the Mikea are located in Antanimieva and Soahazo. Climatic data will be
collected at Antanimieva, Vorehe, Belo, and the coastal village of
Ankindranoka. Toliara in the south and Morombe in the north are the
closest cities.

*Link to appendix map 1 of 9808984, Winterhalder & Tucker*

**Tucker, Appendix, page 2**

*Link to appendix figure of 9808984, Winterhalder & Tucker*

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