FECN19 CWIS 011800

THIRTY DAY ICE FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR FEBRUARY ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 01 FEBRUARY 2007.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2007.

**[Lake Superior]{.underline}**

Temperatures were much above normal over the western part of the lake
during the third week of January and above normal over the east. By the
last week of January, temperatures were near to slightly above normal
over the west and below normal for the east. Ice conditions are still
generally about two to three weeks later than normal in term of
freeze-up over Lake Superior due to very mild temperatures during the
early part of the winter.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1^st^ to February 14^th^.

Temperatures will be below or much below normal over the western end of
Lake Superior and near or below normal over the eastern section of the
lake during the first two weeks of February.

1.  Thunder Bay -- The ice will continue to thicken during the period.
    The consolidated thick lake ice in north-eastern Thunder Bay will
    continue to spread and cover the eastern, northern and western
    portion of the bay by mid-February. Only the entrance and the
    south-central portion of the bay will remain mobile with medium and
    thick lake ice at mid-month.

2.  Nipigon and Black Bays -- During the first week of February all of
    Black and Nipigon Bays will be covered with consolidated thick lake
    ice.

3.  From Grand Marais to the entrance to Nipigon Bay -- During the
    period, the ice edge will continue to expand south-eastward to
    extend about 7 to 20 miles from the shore. Some new and thin lake
    ice will form along the southern shore of Ile Royale during the
    first two weeks of February.

4.  From Grand Marais to Duluth -- Generally open water will prevail
    with some areas of thin and new lake ice near the shore during the
    period.

5.  Southern Lake Superior west of the Keweenaw Peninsula -- Thin and
    new with some medium lake ice will extend from the shore by about 4
    to 12 miles at the middle of February. Consolidated medium and thin
    lake ice will encase the Apostle Islands as well as narrow bands
    along the shore especially in the Duluth area.

6.  Southern Lake Superior east of Keweenaw Peninsula -- Thin and new
    with some medium lake ice will continue to form along the shore and
    extend about 3 to 10 miles from the shore by mid-month. Some narrow
    bands of consolidated medium and thick lake ice will be present
    along the shore.

7.  Whitefish Bay -- Most of Whitefish Bay will be covered with medium
    and thin lake ice at the middle of February. Consolidated medium
    lake ice will be present along the shore.

8.  From Whitefish Bay to Michipicoten Bay -- New and thin lake ice will
    continue to form along the shore so that by the middle of February
    thin and some medium lake ice will extend about 3 to 10 miles from
    the shore.

9.  From Michipicoten Bay to the entrance to Nipigon Bay -- Mainly open
    water will prevail with some patches of thin and new lake ice along
    the shore during the first half of February.

10. Elsewhere in Lake Superior -- Open water to ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 15^th^ to February 28^th^.

Temperatures will be near to below normal over the entire area during
the last half of February.

1.  Thunder Bay -- The ice will continue to thicken during the period.
    Most of the bay will be covered with consolidated thick lake ice by
    the end of the month. The exception will be the entrance to Thunder
    Bay where mobile thick and medium lake ice will prevail.

2.  Nipigon and Black Bays -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  From Grand Marais to the entrance to Nipigon Bay -- During the
    period, the ice edge will continue to expand south-eastward to
    extend about 10 to 30 miles from the shore. Mostly thin and new ice
    with some medium lake ice will cover this area. New and thin lake
    ice will continue to form along the southern shore of Ile Royale.

4.  From Grand Marais to Duluth -- Areas of thin and new lake ice will
    continue to form within 5 to 20 miles of the shore during the
    period.

5.  Southern Lake Superior west of the Keweenaw Peninsula -- Thin and
    medium with some thick lake ice will extend about 8 to 20 miles from
    the shore at the end of February. Consolidated medium and thick lake
    ice will encase the Apostle Islands as well as narrow bands along
    the shore especially in the Duluth area.

6.  Southern Lake Superior east of Keweenaw Peninsula -- Thin and new
    with some medium lake ice will continue to form along the shore and
    extend about 5 to 15 miles from the shore by the end of February.

7.  Whitefish Bay -- Most of Whitefish Bay will be covered with medium
    and thick lake ice at the end of February. Consolidated thick lake
    ice will cover the southern and eastern shore of the bay.

8.  From Whitefish Bay to Michipicoten Bay -- Thin and new with some
    medium lake ice will continue to form along the shore so that by the
    end of February ice will extend about 5 to 20 miles from the shore.

9.  From Michipicoten Bay to the entrance to Nipigon Bay -- Mainly open
    water will prevail with patches of new and thin lake ice along the
    shore during the second half of February.

10. Elsewhere in Lake Superior -- Open water to ice free.

**[Lake Michigan]{.underline}**

Temperatures were near normal during the third week of January and
slightly below normal for the last week of the month. Ice conditions in
the lake are about two weeks later than normal in terms of ice
formation.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1^st^ to February 14^th^.

Temperatures will be below or much below normal during the first week
and below normal for the second week of February.

1.  Green Bay --The consolidated ice in the southern portion of Green
    Bay will continue to extend northward during the period and cover
    most of the bay by mid-February. The exception will be the
    northeastern entrance to Green Bay where mobile medium lake ice will
    prevail. The consolidated ice in the bay will also thicken to medium
    and thick lake ice during the period. The consolidated ice in the
    Little and Big Bay de Noc will thicken to medium and thick lake ice
    as well.

2.  Northern Lake Michigan -- The ice in the northeastern portion of the
    lake will continue to expand southward and extend south of Beaver
    Island by the middle of February. The area will be covered with
    mostly thin with some medium lake ice. Areas of consolidated medium
    lake ice will be present along the shore in the approaches to the
    Straits of Mackinaw. Some patches of new and thin lake ice will form
    along the northwestern shore of the lake north of Kewaunee. Some new
    lake ice will form in Grand Traverse Bay.

3.  Elsewhere in Lake Michigan -- Areas of thin and new lake ice will
    persist along the western and southern shore as well as the
    southeastern shore of the lake. Beyond the ice edge and shore mostly
    open water will prevail with the central portion of the lake being
    ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 15^th^ to February 28^th^.

Temperatures will be near to below normal over the area during the last
two weeks of February.

1.  Green Bay -- Consolidated thick lake ice will cover most of the bay
    except for mobile medium and thick lake ice in the northeastern
    entrance to Green Bay where medium and thick lake ice will cover the
    area at the end of the month. The consolidated ice in the Little and
    Big Bay de Noc will also thicken to thick lake ice.

2.  Northern Lake Michigan -- The ice in the northeastern portion of the
    lake will continue to expand southward and extend about 5 to 10
    miles south of Beaver Island by the end of February. The area will
    be covered with mostly thin with some medium lake ice. Areas of
    consolidated medium lake ice will be present along the shore
    northwest of the Straits of Mackinaw as well as in the Straits of
    Mackinaw. A narrow band of thin lake ice will form along of the
    northwestern shore of Lake Michigan north of Kewaunee. As well, new
    and grey ice will continue to form in Grand Traverse Bay during the
    second half of February and will extend northwards along the shore.

3.  Elsewhere in Lake Michigan -- Areas of thin and new lake ice will
    persist along the western and southern shore as well as the
    southeastern shore of the lake. Beyond the ice edge and shore,
    mostly open water will prevail with the central portion of the lake
    being ice free.

**[Lake Huron and Georgian Bay]{.underline}**

Temperatures were near to slightly above normal during the last two
weeks of January. Ice conditions are about one to two weeks later than
normal in terms of freeze-up.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1^st^ to February 14^th^.

Temperatures will be much below normal for the first week and below
normal for the second week of February.

1.  North Channel -- The consolidated ice in the eastern and western
    portion of the channel will continue to spread so that by the middle
    of February the North Channel will be covered with consolidated ice.
    The consolidated ice will be mostly medium and thick lake ice while
    the mobile ice in the south-central part of the channel will be thin
    and medium lake ice.

2.  St Mary's River -- Consolidated medium and thick lake ice at
    mid-month.

3.  South of Manitoulin Island westward to North-western Lake Huron -
    Thin and new lake ice will continue to form and expand. By the
    middle of February, the ice will extend about 5 to 12 miles from the
    shore.

4.  North-western Lake Huron near the Straits of Mackinaw -- Mostly thin
    and medium lake ice with consolidated medium lake ice in and near
    the entrance to the Straits of Mackinaw. The eastern extent of the
    ice edge will be located about 12 miles east of Bois Blanc Island.

5.  From north-western Lake Huron to Saginaw Bay -- Thin and new lake
    ice will continue to form along the shore and spread eastward to
    about 4 to 10 miles at mid-month.

6.  Saginaw Bay -- During the first week of February the bay will be
    mostly covered with consolidated medium and thin lake ice.

7.  The southern and eastern shore of Lake Huron -- Continued new and
    thin lake ice formation during the period along the western portion
    of Lake Huron south of Saginaw Bay. The ice will extend about 5 to
    12 miles. Along the southern and eastern shore, the ice will thicken
    to medium and thin with some thick lake ice. The westward and
    northward extent of the ice at the middle of February will be 7 to
    20 miles.

8.  Georgian Bay -- Ice growth will continue and push the ice edge
    further south-westward. At mid-February, the ice edge for the medium
    and thin lake ice will extend about 15 to 30 miles from the shore.
    The north-western entrance to the bay as well as the south-western
    part of the bay will be covered with some new and thin lake ice.
    Consolidated medium and thick lake ice in along the north-eastern
    shore of the Georgian Bay.

9.  Elsewhere in Lake Huron and Georgian Bay -- Open water.

Forecast ice conditions from February 15^th^ to February 28^th^.

Temperatures will be near normal for the entire area during the last two
weeks of February.

1.  North Channel -- Consolidated thick lake ice will cover all of the
    North Channel by the end of February.

2.  St Mary's River -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  South of Manitoulin Island westward to North-western Lake Huron -
    Thin with some medium lake ice will continue to form and expand. By
    the end of February, the ice will extend about 3 to 12 miles from
    the shore.

4.  North-western Lake Huron near the Straits of Mackinaw -- Mostly thin
    and medium lake ice with consolidated medium lake ice in and near
    the entrance to the Straits of Mackinaw. The eastern extent of the
    ice edge will be located about 15 to 20 miles east of Bois Blanc
    Island.

5.  From north-western Lake Huron to Saginaw Bay -- Thin and new lake
    ice will continue to form along the shore and spread eastward to
    about 5 to 10 miles from the shore by the end of February.

6.  Saginaw Bay -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

7.  The southern and eastern shore of Lake Huron -- The southern portion
    of the lake will be covered with thin and new with some medium lake
    ice. The south-eastern shore of Lake Huron will have a narrow band
    of thick lake ice. Along the eastern shore of the lake, a band of 5
    to 12 miles wide will be covered with thin and medium with some
    thick lake ice.

8.  Georgian Bay -- Ice growth will continue and push the ice edge
    further south-westward. At the end of February, only the
    south-western portion of the bay will have open water or new and
    thin lake ice. Elsewhere mostly thin and medium lake ice will cover
    the bay including the entrance to the bay. Consolidated thick and
    medium lake ice in along the north-eastern shore of the Georgian
    Bay.

9.  Elsewhere in Lake Huron and Georgian Bay -- Open water.

**[Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair]{.underline}**

Temperatures were generally near normal over the western part of the
lake and below normal toward the east during the last two weeks of
January. Ice conditions are about three to four weeks later than normal
in terms of freeze-up.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1^st^ to February 14^th^.

Temperatures will be below or much below normal during the first week
and below normal for the second week of February.

1.  Lake St Clair and the Western Basin -- Consolidated ice will begin
    to form so that by the middle of February medium and thin lake ice
    will cover Lake St Clair. In the Western Basin, mainly thin and
    medium lake ice will cover the area with some consolidated medium
    lake ice along the shore.

2.  The rest of Lake Erie -- The southward expansion of the ice will
    cover the entire lake by the middle of February with medium and thin
    lake ice. Some thick lake ice will form along the southern shore at
    mid-month.

Forecast ice conditions from February 15^th^ to February 28^th^.

Temperatures will be near normal or below normal for the last half of
February.

1.  Lake St Clair and the Western Basin -- Consolidated medium and thick
    lake ice in Lake St Clair. In the Western Basin, mainly thin and
    medium lake ice will cover the area with some consolidated medium
    lake ice along the shore.

2.  The rest of Lake Erie -- Medium and thin lake ice with some thick
    lake ice will cover most of the lake. Occasional open water leads
    will develop along the northern shore near the end of the month.

**[Lake Ontario]{.underline}**

Temperatures were near normal over the western part of the lake and
below normal in the east during the third week of January and below
normal in the west and much below normal in the east during the last
week of the January. Ice conditions are about two to three weeks later
than normal in terms of freeze-up.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1^st^ to February 14^th^.

Temperatures will be below normal during the first two weeks of
February.

1.  Northeastern Lake Ontario -- The ice will continue to grow and
    spread during the first part of February. By the middle of February,
    the northeastern portion of the lake will be covered with medium and
    thin lake ice. The coastal area of Prince Edward County will
    continue to be covered with a narrow band of thin lake ice.

2.  Bay of Quinte -- Consolidated thick and medium lake ice.

3.  St Lawrence River -- During the first week of February, the river
    will be consolidated with medium and thin lake ice.

4.  Elsewhere in Lake Ontario -- Narrow bands of new and thin lake ice
    along the coast. Elsewhere mostly open water with ice free in the
    central portion of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from February 15^th^ to February 28^th^.

Temperatures will be near to below normal for the last half of February.

1.  Northeastern Lake Ontario -- No significant change in ice extent.
    The northeastern portion of the lake will continue to be covered
    with medium and thin lake ice. The coastal area of Prince Edward
    County will also be covered with a narrow band of thin lake ice.

2.  Bay of Quinte -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  St Lawrence River -- Consolidated with medium and thin lake ice.

4.  Elsewhere in Lake Ontario -- Mostly open water with ice free in the
    central portion of the lake. Patches of thin lake ice along the
    shore during the period.

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="3.0506944444444444in"
height="3.9868055555555557in"}Figure 1: Ice forecast, Western Great
Lakes -- 15 February 2007.

![](media/image2.jpeg){width="3.977777777777778in"
height="3.0597222222222222in"}Figure 2: Ice forecast, Eastern Great
Lakes -- 15 February 2007.

![](media/image3.jpeg){width="3.0506944444444444in"
height="3.9868055555555557in"}Figure 3: Ice forecast, Western Great
Lakes -- 1 March 2007.

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="3.977777777777778in"
height="3.0597222222222222in"}Figure 4: Ice forecast, Eastern Great
Lakes -- 1 March 2007.

END