Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 12/13/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** SG4003

SG4003

**Senegal**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual Rice Report**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Susan Reid

U. S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Youhanidou Wane Ba

**Report Highlights:**

Post forecasts rice production to increase in 2004/2005 due to expanded
cultivated area and increased yields. Despite the locust infestation in
the north, the harvest this year will be exceptional due to an increase
in area planted. Local rice market share has slightly increased from 9
percent to 11 percent in 2003/2004. Rice imports have decreased 27
percent compared to 2002.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Abidjan \[IV1\]

\[SG\]

**Table of Contents**

[Executive Summary 3](#executive-summary)

[Production 5](#production)

[Consumption 6](#consumption)

[Trade 6](#trade)

# Executive Summary

Post forecasts increased rice production in 2004/2005 due to area
expansion and increased yields. Irrigated rice is grown on a large scale
in the Senegal River Valley in the north. Total area planted in this
area increased to a record level of 27,772 ha due to expansion in
irrigation infrastructure. Senegal has recently experienced the worst
locust invasion in more than a decade. However, massive aerial and
backpack spraying for the past three months minimized crop losses in
this Senegal River Valley region, despite the fact that it was the point
of entry of swarms coming from Mauritania. According to officials in
SAED (the regional parastatal that administers rice production in the
Valley), the locusts did not attack rice production. Problems stemmed
instead from endemic pest damage such as grasshoppers and grain-eating
birds.

Per capita rice consumption remains at 60-70 kg. Rice consumption is
expected to decrease in 2004/05 due to the bumper food crop production.
Corn production has reached record levels of 401 TMT (official
statistics). Corn is mainly grown in Southern Senegal (Kaolak, Kolda and
Tambacounda) where rainfall is greater than in the rest of country.
Similarly, sorghum and millet output has also increased (see table).

Senegal is still the second largest African importer of after next to
Nigeria. Based on official statistics and projections, Post forecasts
Senegalese imports of rice for CY 2004 will decline due to increased
local food supplies, to the high price of imported rice, and to stagnant
incomes of populations that would demand more rice if they could afford
to buy it. Imports during the first ten months of 2004 were 433 MT
compared to 568 MT during the same period in 2003. Imports were 710 TMT
in CY 2002 and 641 TMT in CY 2003. Ninety-four percent of Senegal's
total rice imports are 100 percent broken rice. Thailand is still the
major source of imports, followed by India and Vietnam. U.S. rice
exports to Senegal were 10 TMT in FY 2003 and were exclusively food aid
shipments.

Dakar is a major transshipment point for rice to Mauritania and Mali.
According to the Census statistics, the total amount of rice unloaded at
the Port of Dakar was 792 TMT in CY 2002 and 825 TMT in CY 2003. The
difference between the total unloaded rice at the Port and Senegalese
imports represents rice transshipped to neighboring countries. It is
estimated that 65 percent of the broken rice imported by Mauritania
comes through the port of Dakar.

As of August 31, 2004 rice stocks held by Senegalese rice importers
amounted to 114 TMT or the equivalent of 3 months of the country's
consumption of rice.

Exchange Rate: U.S. \$1 = 489 F CFA on December 13, 2004.

# Production

Post forecasts increased rice production in 2004/2005 due to area
expansion, the introduction of high yield varieties, and expanded
irrigation infrastructure. Rice production is concentrated in two major
areas: the Fleuve region along the Senegal River in the north, where the
GOS has made substantial investments in dams and other irrigation
infrastructure; and in the southern Casamance region, with a more humid
climate and a greater reliance on traditional production techniques. The
production in Casamance is primarily subsistence in nature with
small-scale irrigation projects at Anambe. The Fleuve region is
Senegal's largest rice growing area. It accounts for 67 percent of the
country's total rice production. Rice in the Fleuve region is harvested
twice a year, during the rainy season when yields are higher (5.5
kg/ha), and during the dry season (5 kg/ha). This year, total area
planted during the 2004/05 rainy season reached a record level of 27,774
ha in the North, up from 23,105 ha in 2003/04. The total crop area for
rice averages 88,000 ha. Primary estimates for 2004/05 paddy production
is 153,687 MT in the Fleuve region, up from 127,076 MT in 2003/04.

In 2004, along with several other West African countries, Senegal
experienced the worst locust invasion in more than a decade. However,
massive aerial and backpack spraying for the past three months minimized
crop attack in the Fleuve region, despite the fact that it was the point
of entry of swarms coming from Mauritania. The official government view
is that locusts did not attack rice-growing areas. FAS analysis in 2005
will determine the accuracy of this view.

The government of Taiwan has been offering significant aid to the rice
sector in Senegal. A new variety of rice called the "TCS10" developed by
Taiwanese is making inroads in the local market.

Corn production reached record levels of 401 TMT in 2003/2004. Corn is
mainly grown in Southern Senegal (Kaolak, Kolda and Tambacounda) where
the rainfall is greater than in the rest of country. Similarly, sorghum
and millet output has also increased (see table below).

Table 1: Other Food Crop Production

+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
|       | Pro     |         |         | Area    |         |         |
|       | duction |         |         |         |         |         |
|       |         |         |         | (1,000  |         |         |
|       | (1,000  |         |         | HA)     |         |         |
|       | MT)     |         |         |         |         |         |
+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Crop  | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 |
+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| M     | 414     | 628     | 630     | 820     | 857     | 857     |
| illet |         |         |         |         |         |         |
+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| So    | 117     | 190     | 190     | 200     | 208     | 208     |
| rghum |         |         |         |         |         |         |
+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Corn  | 80      | 401     | 350     | 108     | 176     | 180     |
+-------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Senegal.

Rice yields averaged 2.6 tons /ha in 2003/2004. Dryland yields range
from1.3 kg/ha to 2 kg/ha. Yields of irrigated rice along the Senegal
River Valley at the northern border of the country have improved and are
estimated at 5 tons/ha during the dry season and 5.5 tons/ha during the
rainy season (June-August).

# 

# Consumption

Rice consumption represents 30 percent of cereal consumption in Senegal,
equivalent to per capita annual consumption of 60-70 kilograms. Rice
consumption is expected to decrease in 2004/05 due to bumper production
of other food crops.

## 

# Trade

Rice imports are estimated to fall in 2004 due to higher rice prices and
freight costs. Imports for the first 10 months of 2004 are 432,785 tons,
down from 567,739 tons imported during the same period in 2003. Rice
imports decreased 11 percent from 2002 to 2003 from 709,570 tons to
640,739 tons. Senegal continues to import the bulk of its rice from
Thailand with India a distant second. Vietnam is the third major source
of 100 percent broken rice. Senegal also imports a very small quantity
of packaged deluxe rice.

U.S. long grain rice exports amounted to 7,000 tons in 2003 and 10,500
tons in 2004 under the USAID-administered Food for Peace program. The FY
02 and 03 rice was auctioned off to a private wholesaler for
distribution throughout the country. The marketing of this long grain
rice is hampered by its higher price and by other factors.

# 

  ------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                 

  **Country**         **Senegal**                                               

  **Commodity**       **Rice,                                        (1000      
                      Milled**                                       HA)(1000   
                                                                     MT)        

                      2002          Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                      USDA Official Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                      \[Old\]       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                     08/2002               08/2003               08/2004
  Begin**                                                                       

  Area Harvested      76            76         87         88         87         95

  Beginning Stocks    424           250        481        168        476        235

  Milled Production   112           112        150        151        130        164

  Rough Production    172           172        231        232        200        252

  MILLING RATE        6500          6500       6500       6500       6500       6500
  (.9999)                                                                       

  TOTAL Imports       875           684        825        584        825        500

  Jan-Dec Imports     750           710        750        641        750        620

  Jan-Dec Import U.S. 1             7          0          7          0          10

  TOTAL SUPPLY        1411          1046       1456       903        1431       899

  TOTAL Exports       0             0          0          0          0          0

  Jan-Dec Exports     0             0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Dom.          930           878        980        668        1030       579
  Consumption                                                                   

  Ending Stocks       481           168        476        235        401        320

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  1411          1046       1456       903        1431       899
  ------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------
  **Import Trade                                             
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country**           Senegal                              

  **Commodity**         Rice, Milled                         

  Time Period           Jan-Dec        Units:                MT

  Imports for:          2002                                 **2003**

  U.S.                  7459           U.S.                  0

  Others                               Others                

  Thailand              466170         Thailand              448517

  India                 144250         India                 128148

  Vietnam               62405          Vietnam               51259

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

  Total for Others      672825                               627924

  Others not Listed     29291                                12815

  Grand Total           709575                               640739
  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------