POLICY AND PROGRAM STUDIES SERVICE

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

**The Impacts of Regular Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes**

**7-9 Years After Scheduled High School Graduation: Final Report**

Upward Bound, which was initiated in 1965 as part of the War on Poverty,
is a federal pre-college program designed to help economically
disadvantaged students complete high school and enter and succeed in
postsecondary education. It is the oldest and largest of the federal
TRIO programs, all of which share the objective of helping disadvantaged
students achieve success at the postsecondary level. In 2008, there are
approximately 1,122 projects serving over 76,000 students.

The study findings are based on a random assignment design implemented
in a nationally representative sample of 67 Upward Bound projects hosted
by two-and four-year colleges and universities. About 1,500 eligible
applicants were randomly assigned to the evaluation's treatment group,
and allowed to participate in Upward Bound, and about 1,300 students
were randomly assigned to the control group. Data were collected
periodically on high school and postsecondary outcomes for both groups
from an initial baseline in 1992-1994 through a final survey in
2003-2004. Impact estimates are based on a comparison of outcomes for
students in the treatment and control groups.

# Main Findings

For students offered the opportunity to participate in the Upward Bound
program, the study found that:

-   Upward Bound had no detectable effect on the rate of overall
    postsecondary enrollment, or the type or selectivity of
    postsecondary institution attended. About four-fifths of both
    treatment and control group members attended some type of
    postsecondary institution.

-   Upward Bound had no detectable effect on the likelihood of apply for
    financial aid or receiving a Pell grant.

-   Upward Bound increased the likelihood of earning a postsecondary
    certificate or license from a vocational school but had no
    detectable effect on the likelihood of earning a bachelor's or
    associate's degree. Estimated impacts on receiving any postsecondary
    credential and receiving a bachelor's degree are 2 and 0 percentage
    points, respectively, and are not statistically significant.

-   Upward Bound increased postsecondary enrollment or completion rates
    for some subgroups of students. For the subgroup of students with
    lower educational expectations at baseline---that is, the students
    who did not expect to complete a bachelor's degree---Upward Bound
    increased the rate of postsecondary enrollment by 6 percentage
    points and postsecondary completion by 12 percentage points. Because
    targeting on the basis of lower educational expectations could
    create an incentive for applicants to understate their expectations,
    further analyses were conducted to examine the effects of Upward
    Bound on subgroups that could be more readily targeted. These
    exploratory analyses suggest that UB increased enrollment for
    students who were in tenth grade or above at the time of
    application, students who took a mathematics course below algebra in
    ninth grade, and students with a ninth grade GPA above 2.5.

-   Longer participation in Upward Bound was associated with higher
    rates of postsecondary enrollment and completion.

## Caveat

In the context of a complex, longitudinal study like the national Upward
Bound evaluation many difficult evaluation design and implementation
issues arise and need to be considered when interpreting the study
findings. Three key issues in particular are important in this
evaluation. First, while the response rates to the Upward Bound surveys
were high, they declined over the period of the study. Second, the
sample design was highly stratified, with highly variable selection
probabilities, in order to ensure that certain less common types of
projects were included in the study. Because of that decision, and
limitations on the number of projects that could be included in the
study, one study project represented approximately 26 percent of Upward
Bound participants nationwide. To the extent that this project was not
representative of its type of project, results could be affected and, in
general, study results will not be as robust as estimates would have
been had there been multiple projects in the stratum. Third, some
students assigned to the control group did receive services, and some
assigned to the treatment group did not. To account for this cross-over,
the report includes analyses of actually participating as well as the
effects of being selected for Upward Bound. While the impacts of
actually participating are generally larger than the impacts of being
selected, most impact estimates are not significant. The full study
report contains full discussion of each of these issues, as well as
detailed analyses that help readers interpret the findings.