Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Noel

(AL162007)

28 October-2 November 2007

Daniel P. Brown

National Hurricane Center

17 December 2007

Revised 29 February 2008

(to include rainfall amount for Camp Perrin, Haiti)

Noel took an erratic track across Hispaniola and Cuba as a tropical
storm before becoming a hurricane as it exited the northwestern Bahamas.
Torrential rainfall from Noel produced devastating floods and loss of
life in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the
Bahamas. Noel then evolved into a large and powerful extratropical
cyclone that brought hurricane force wind gusts to portions of the
northeastern United States and eastern Canada.

a.  Synoptic History

    The tropical wave that played a role in the development of Noel
    departed the west coast of Africa early on 16 October. During the
    next several days, the wave moved westward across the eastern
    Atlantic without showing any signs of organization. As the tropical
    wave approached the Lesser Antilles late on 22 October, it began to
    interact with a surface trough lying just north of the Leeward
    Islands and an upper-level trough that extended southwestward from
    the Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean Sea. As the wave interacted
    with these two features, a broad surface low pressure area formed
    about 150 n mi east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late
    on 23 October. The new surface low then moved slowly westward and
    produced disorganized thunderstorm activity during the next couple
    of days, while strong upper-level westerly winds inhibited further
    development. The low turned west-southwestward on 25 October, moving
    over the Virgin Islands and passing near the southeastern coast of
    Puerto Rico early the next day. On 27 October, the strong
    upper-level winds began to decrease, allowing convection to develop
    and remain closer to the low center. An increase in organization
    that afternoon led to the formation of a tropical depression about
    185 n mi south-southeast of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti by 0000 UTC 28
    October. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is
    given in Fig. 1, with a close-up of the tropical cyclone portion of
    the track shown in Fig. 2. Wind and pressure histories are provided
    in Figs. 3 and 4, respectively. The best track positions and
    intensities are listed in Table 1.

    After genesis, the depression turned northwestward, around the
    eastern side of a mid-to upper-level low located to the northwest of
    the tropical cyclone. Convection continued to increase and banding
    features became better defined during the early morning hours of 28
    October. A ship observation taken to the northeast of the center at
    1200 UTC that day suggests that the depression reached tropical
    storm strength by that time. Thereafter, Noel continued to
    strengthen, reaching an intensity of 50 kt six hours later. As Noel
    continued moving northwestward toward the southern coast of Haiti on
    29 October, interaction with the mountainous terrain along the
    southern coast of the island resulted in the disruption of the
    low-level circulation. Noel's maximum winds decreased to 45 kt
    before the center made landfall along the southern coast of Haiti
    around 0700 UTC near the town of Jacmel, about 25 miles
    south-southwest of Port-Au-Prince.

    During its passage along the west coast of Haiti, the low-level
    circulation became very difficult to track. Satellite imagery during
    this time suggests that a mid-level circulation continued moving
    northward and exited the northern coast of Hispaniola just before
    1200 UTC. Shortly thereafter, visible satellite imagery suggests
    that a new low-level center formed near the northwestern coast of
    Haiti, southwest of the apparent mid-level center. A reconnaissance
    mission later that afternoon was unable to fly directly through the
    low-level center seen in satellite imagery because it was located
    too close to the complex terrain of eastern Cuba. Wind and pressure
    data from this mission, however, were consistent with the position
    estimated from satellite imagery.

    The mid-to upper-level low that had been steering Noel northwestward
    weakened late on 29 October. After this occurred, the tropical storm
    turned westward to the south of a mid-level ridge over the western
    Atlantic. During this time, Noel hugged the northern coast of
    eastern Cuba and regained an intensity of 50 kt. Surface data and
    radar observations from Holguin, Cuba indicate the center of Noel
    passed near or just north of Cabo Lucrecia and made landfall around
    0600 UTC near Guardalavaca, Cuba. A few hours later, the center
    passed near La Jiquima, where a minimum pressure of 997.9 mb was
    recorded. Noel's center spent a little more than 30 hours over Cuba.
    While over the island, the maximum winds decreased, but ship and
    surface observations show that Noel remained a minimal tropical
    storm. For the first 18 h over Cuba, Noel moved a little south of
    due west. Thereafter, the tropical storm turned northwestward, then
    north-northwestward and re-emerged over the Atlantic waters along
    the north-central coast of Cuba near Cayo Coco, shortly after 1200
    UTC 31 October.

    Once over water, the tropical storm regained strength and meandered
    just off the north coast of Cuba. During this time, the low-level
    center was displaced to the southwest of the convective activity due
    to southwesterly wind shear. Early on 1 November, Noel turned
    north-northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough that was moving
    across the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, a very strong burst of deep
    convection developed just northeast of the center. Aircraft data
    indicate that the minimum pressure began to fall but that the
    maximum winds did not initially increase. The center of Noel moved
    across Andros Island in the northwest Bahamas shortly after 1200 UTC
    1 November with maximum winds of 50 kt, and six hours later passed
    very near Nassau with winds of 55 kt. Despite the southwesterly
    shear, Noel continued to intensify over the northwestern Bahamas and
    shortly after passing between Eleuthera and Abaco Islands, it
    attained hurricane strength. Noel reached a peak intensity of 70 kt
    and accelerated northeastward ahead of the mid-latitude trough.
    Shortly thereafter, the satellite appearance of Noel began to
    deteriorate as the inner-core convection weakened. By 0000 UTC 3
    November, Noel lacked the deep convection required to consider it a
    tropical cyclone and the system became extratropical, while centered
    about 240 n mi southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

    The extratropical low grew into a very large and powerful cyclone as
    it moved north-northeastward off the east coast of the United
    States. The cyclone intensified a little, reaching a peak intensity
    of 75 kt at 1200 UTC 3 November. Late that day, the low weakened
    slightly as it passed about 75 n mi east-southeast of Nantucket
    Island, Massachusetts. Shortly after 0600 UTC 4 November, the center
    of the low made landfall near Chebogue Point, Nova Scotia, just
    south of Yarmouth with maximum winds of 65 kt. The cyclone weakened
    after landfall in eastern Canada and exited the coast of Labrador
    about 18 h later. The low continued northeastward and merged with
    another extratropical cyclone over Greenland by 0600 UTC 6 November.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Noel (Figs. 3 and 4) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB).
    Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the
    NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Aqua, the
    NASA QuikSCAT, the Department of Defense WindSat, and Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful
    in tracking Noel. Ten reconnaissance missions by the U.S. Air Force
    Reserve and one by the NOAA WP-3D aircraft were flown into Noel. The
    NOAA G-IV aircraft conducted two synoptic surveillance missions.
    Observations from these missions include flight-level winds,
    dropwindsonde observations, and surface wind estimates from the
    Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Radar imagery and
    surface observations from Cuba were extremely useful in tracking
    Noel's passage over that country. One NOAA WP-3D flight was flown
    after Noel was no longer a tropical cyclone. This flight was flown
    in support of an experimental unmanned Aerosonde mission that was
    conducted on 3 November.

    The 50 kt estimated intensity of Noel when it was centered south of
    Hispaniola is based on a blend of an SFMR surface wind estimate of
    53 kt and peak flight-level wind of 58 kt adjusted to the surface
    using a standard adjustment factor. The highest wind gust recorded
    on the island of Hispaniola was 60 kt at Barahona, Dominican
    Republic at 0815 UTC 29 October (Table 2). Noel's re-strengthening
    to 50 kt prior to landfall in eastern Cuba is supported by an SFMR
    surface wind estimate of 52 kt. A wind gust to 113 kt was reported
    at Gran Piedra, Cuba. This observing site, however, is at an
    elevation of about 4000 ft and this wind measurement is clearly not
    representative of conditions near sea level. Table 2 shows that most
    of the official observing sites in eastern Cuba reported maximum
    wind gusts between 30 and 40 kt.

    The 70 kt peak intensity of Noel is based on several peak SFMR
    surface wind estimates of around 70 kt on 2 November. A maximum
    flight-level wind of 89 kt was observed at 0216 UTC 2 November,
    which would typically correspond to an 80 kt maximum surface wind
    using a standard 90% adjustment of the 700 mb wind. SFMR and
    dropwindsonde data, however, during this flight suggest that the
    standard 90% adjustment was likely not valid for Noel at this time.
    The highest SFMR wind during the mission was 70 kt and a
    dropwindsonde at 0520 UTC provided a surface wind estimate of 70 kt
    (derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the sounding).
    A subsequent reconnaissance mission between 1200 and 1800 UTC 2
    November recorded a maximum flight-level wind of 90 kt at 700 mb,
    but again the highest surface wind estimate from the SFMR during
    this flight was 70 kt.

    Reconnaissance data from a NOAA WP-3D mission early on 3 November
    suggest that Noel maintained a shallow warm core at the time the
    cyclone is analyzed as extratropical in the best track. While the
    presence of the warm core is noted, this does not mean that Noel
    remained a tropical cyclone during this time. Inner-core convection
    significantly decreased after 1200 UTC 2 November, and Noel no
    longer met the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone by 0000
    UTC 3 November (Fig. 5). The shallow warm core associated with Noel
    at this time was likely the residual warm core of the tropical
    cyclone. The 75 kt peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone is
    based on QuikSCAT data from 1024 UTC 3 November.

    Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force directly associated
    with Noel are given in Table 3.

    Noel produced several days of torrential rainfall across Hispaniola
    and Cuba. The maximum rainfall report received from Haiti was 25.78
    in from Camp Perrin, located near Cayes along the southwestern coast
    of Hispaniola. The total from this gauge, which is maintained by the
    Organization for the Rehabilitation of the Environment (ORE),
    includes rainfall during the 5 day period between 6 am (local time)
    28 October and 6 am 2 November. Rainfall reports received from the
    Dominican Republic include accumulations between 25-31 October, a
    period that includes the effects of the precursor low of Noel. The
    reports indicate that the heaviest rains fell between 28-31 October.
    Several locations in the Dominican Republic reported total
    accumulations between 15 and 25 in with a maximum of 35.63 in
    (905 mm) at Angelina. The rainfall totals, however, from several of
    the locations that received greater than 20 in, including Angelina,
    are incomplete. These sites received rainfall that was not recorded
    because the gauges reached their maximum capacity during some of the
    24 h periods between measurements. In some cases, this occurred on
    several consecutive days during Noel's passage. For example, at
    Angelina the rain gauge reached its capacity of 300 mm (11.81 in) on
    two consecutive days. At Rancho Arriba (total rainfall 31.98 in),
    the rain gauge reached its capacity of 170 mm (6.69 in) on 4
    consecutive days (28-31 October). It is possible that the maximum
    rainfall in the Dominican Republic from Noel and its incipient low
    may have approached 40 in.

    Reports show that rainfall accumulations of 5 to 12 in were common
    across eastern Cuba. In the Provence of Holguin, 12.20 in fell at
    Loynaz Hechavarria during the 24-h period ending at 1200 UTC 31
    October. In the Bahamas, 29.43 in was recorded on Long Island during
    the 79 h period between 0200 UTC 30 October and 0900 UTC 2 November.
    The precursor low also produced significant rainfall across Puerto
    Rico and the Virgin Islands, with a maximum amount of 17.23 in at
    Gate Tower, Puerto Rico.

    The combination of Noel over the northern Caribbean and strong high
    pressure over the eastern United States produced a tight pressure
    gradient over the western Atlantic and Florida between 29-31
    October. This pressure gradient resulted in an extended period of
    gale force winds along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula that
    were not directly associated with the circulation of Noel. The
    highest sustained wind measured over land in south Florida during
    this period was 37 kt, with a gust to 47 kt at Miami Beach

    The post-Noel extratropical cyclone produced very strong winds along
    coastal sections of the United States from the Carolinas northward
    as it passed offshore. The strongest winds were observed in eastern
    Massachusetts, where a sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 63 kt
    was measured on Nantucket Island. The highest wind gust reported in
    mainland Massachusetts was 77 kt at Barnstable. In eastern Maine,
    wind gusts as high as 57 kt were recorded. In eastern Canada, the
    low brought hurricane force wind gusts to portions of Nova Scotia
    and Newfoundland. The highest sustained wind in Canada was 61 kt at
    McNab's Island in Halifax Harbor. Maximum wind gusts were 97 kt at
    Wreckhouse, Newfoundland and 79 kt at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia. A
    wind gust to 73 kt was also experienced near Halifax. The
    extratropical cyclone produced a wide-swath of 2 to 4 inches of
    precipitation that extended from coastal sections of Massachusetts
    northward across Maine, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and eastern
    Quebec. The highest precipitation total in the United States was
    5.03 in at Cutler Rainwise, Maine and the highest in Canada was 5.28
    in at Cap D'Espoir, in southeastern Quebec. The extratropical
    cyclone also produced significant snowfall across northern Maine,
    northwestern New Brunswick, southeastern Quebec and Labrador.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    Torrential rains from Noel produced widespread damage and loss of
    life in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and
    the Bahamas. As of this writing, Noel is estimated to have caused a
    total of 163 deaths, while 59 remained missing. On 16 November, the
    United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    listed the death toll in the Dominican Republic at 87, while 42
    people remained missing. The exact number of deaths in Haiti has
    been somewhat difficult to determine, as counts have ranged from 57
    to 103. Media reports from Reuters on 8 November stated that
    authorities have confirmed 57 fatalities. A report from the USAID
    Fact Sheet #3 on 8 November lists 103 casualties in Haiti with 20
    persons missing. This report, however, appears to include deaths
    that may have occurred during "continuous rains over the past six
    weeks" before Noel's passage. A report from the International
    Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on 14 December
    states that the Haitian Direction of the Civil Protection (Direction
    de las Protection Civile- DPC) confirmed 73 deaths, while 17 people
    remained missing. For the purpose of establishing a final death toll
    in Haiti for Noel, this report uses the count of 73 fatalities,
    since that count is from a Haitian governmental agency and it
    appears to only include the deaths directly attributed to the
    tropical cyclone. Reports indicate that Noel was responsible for one
    death in the Bahamas, one death in Jamaica, and one death in Cuba.
    The reports show that nearly all of the fatalities were the result
    of floods and mudslides. In the Dominican Republic and Haiti, there
    were several reports of villages being swept away by flood waters.
    In Cuba, a man died attempting to cross a swollen river, and in
    Jamaica the death was the consequence of a tree falling on a house
    due to a landslide.

    Reports show that 78,000 people in the Dominican Republic remained
    in emergency shelters over two weeks after the passage of Noel. The
    cyclone is estimated to have damaged nearly 15,000 homes with a
    little more than 6,000 homes destroyed. Mudslides and floods also
    washed away several bridges that left numerous towns and villages
    isolated for many days. The government of the Dominican Republic
    reported that crop losses totaled \$77.7 million (United States
    dollars) in that country. In Haiti, government reports note that
    nearly 18,000 homes were damaged and almost 4,000 homes were
    destroyed, while countless crops were ruined due to floods.

    Reuters reported that 80,000 residents in Cuba were evacuated from
    flooding produced by Noel. Twenty-two thousand houses were damaged
    or destroyed and over 8,000 miles (13,000 km) of roads were damaged.
    Other infrastructures including railroad lines, drainage systems,
    bridges and power lines were also damaged. Agricultural losses
    accounted for \$305 million of the \$500 million (United States
    dollars) in financial losses in Cuba as reported by the Granma
    International Newspaper on 8 November. Officials reported that Cuba
    lost 10% of its coffee crop and that nearly 125,000 acres of sugar
    cane fields were flooded or damaged, which accounts for about half
    of the Cuban sugar output. Damage to homes amounted to \$128
    million, and \$33 million in damages were estimated for the collapse
    of power and communication lines. The Cuban Meteorological Service
    stated that rains from Noel produced the worst flooding in Cuba
    since Hurricane Flora in 1963.

    Media reports from the Bahamas show that severe flooding occurred on
    Cat Island, Exuma, and Long Island with water inundating several
    homes. The one death reported in the Bahamas was a drowning that was
    blamed on the flooding in Exuma.

    As a tropical cyclone, Noel was not directly responsible for any
    damage in the United States. The extratropical cyclone produced
    strong winds that downed trees and power lines in the northeastern
    United States and eastern Canada. Media reports indicate 190,000
    homes and businesses in eastern Canada and about 80,000 homes in the
    northeastern United States lost electricity. Coastal floods and
    significant wave action washed out sections of coastal roads in Nova
    Scotia and many roads were littered with large rocks and boulders
    that washed ashore during the storm. Several waterfront buildings
    also suffered damage and some docks were destroyed.

    The gale force winds created by the combination of Noel and a strong
    high over the eastern United States generated very large waves that
    pounded the east coast of Florida for several days. This wave action
    produced significant beach erosion along the Atlantic Coast of
    Florida prior to Noel's center passing offshore. It is difficult to
    determine the monetary impact of the beach erosion in Florida, but
    media reports estimate the cost at \$3-4 million for the Palm Beach
    area beaches alone. Additional beach erosion was reported along the
    Atlantic coast from the Carolinas northward as Noel passed east of
    the United States.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The tropical wave that played a role in the development of Noel was
    introduced into the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) at 0930 UTC 23
    October. Subsequent Outlooks issued over the next couple of days
    correctly predicted that upper-level winds would remain unfavorable
    for significant development during that time. The Outlook issued at
    1530 UTC 25 October was the first to indicate that upper-level winds
    "could become more favorable" for development. The Outlook issued
    six hours later was the first to explicitly mention the possibility
    of tropical depression formation, which was a little more than 48
    hours prior to genesis.

    Verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is given
    in Table 4. Average official track errors for Noel (with the number
    of cases in parenthesis) were 51 (22), 78 (20), 97 (18), 120 (16),
    180 (12), 97 (8), and 184 (4) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. Noel's erratic track across the
    northern Caribbean proved to be difficult to predict. Despite
    official track errors through 72 h that were larger than the 5-yr
    (2002-2006) mean, the official forecasts beat most of the individual
    track models for this period. The only track models that
    consistently beat the official forecast for this period were the
    deep-layer Beta and Advection model (BAMD), the CONU and GUNA model
    consensuses, and the Florida State Super Ensemble (FSSE). The
    official track errors at 96 and 120 were much lower than the 5-yr
    means and were only bettered by the CONU and GUNA model consensuses
    at 120 h.

    Average official intensity errors (Table 5) were 8, 10, 12, 12, 14,
    16, 20 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts,
    respectively. The official intensity errors are close to the 5-yr
    means through 36 h and are slightly below the 5-yr means at 48 h and
    beyond. The NHC intensity forecasts were out-performed by the
    consensus of the DSHP, GHMI, HWFI models (ICON) at all forecast
    times, except 48 and 72 h. Most of the intensity guidance had errors
    lower than the official forecasts at 96 and 120 h. Because of
    expected strong wind shear, the official intensity forecasts issued
    on 31 October and 1 November, did not predict that Noel would
    strengthen into a hurricane before becoming an extratropical
    cyclone, which Noel did despite the strong shear.

    Table 6 is a summary of coastal watches and warnings issued in
    association with Noel.

e.  Acknowledgements

The Meteorological Services of the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Bahamas provided most of the surface and rainfall data shown in the
report. Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Center furnished surface
data for the extratropical portion of Noel. The National Data Buoy
Center and National Weather Service Offices in Miami, Florida; Taunton,
Massachusetts; and Caribou, Maine also supplied surface data and storm
summaries. David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
contributed additional rainfall information.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Noel, 28 October-
2 November 2007.

+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| Date/Time | L       | Longitude | Pr     | Wind    | Stage          |
|           | atitude |           | essure | Speed   |                |
| (UTC)     |         | (°W)      |        |         |                |
|           | (°N)    |           | (mb)   | (kt)    |                |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 24 / 0000 | 18.0    | 60.2      | 1010   | 20      | low            |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 24 / 0600 | 18.0    | 60.7      | 1009   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 24 / 1200 | 18.1    | 61.2      | 1009   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 24 / 1800 | 18.4    | 61.7      | 1009   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 25 / 0000 | 18.8    | 62.3      | 1009   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 25 / 0600 | 19.1    | 62.9      | 1007   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 25 / 1200 | 19.2    | 63.5      | 1007   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 25 / 1800 | 19.1    | 64.1      | 1006   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 26 / 0000 | 18.8    | 64.8      | 1005   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 26 / 0600 | 18.0    | 65.7      | 1005   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 26 / 1200 | 17.2    | 66.7      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 26 / 1800 | 16.5    | 67.7      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 27 / 0000 | 16.1    | 68.5      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 27 / 0600 | 15.7    | 69.3      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 27 / 1200 | 15.3    | 70.1      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 27 / 1800 | 15.4    | 71.0      | 1004   | 25      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 28 / 0000 | 15.7    | 71.2      | 1003   | 30      | tropical       |
|           |         |           |        |         | depression     |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 28 / 0600 | 16.0    | 71.4      | 1002   | 30      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 28 / 1200 | 16.3    | 71.6      | 999    | 40      | tropical storm |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 28 / 1800 | 16.6    | 71.8      | 996    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 29 / 0000 | 17.1    | 72.1      | 999    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 29 / 0600 | 18.0    | 72.4      | 1002   | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 29 / 1200 | 19.2    | 72.9      | 1002   | 40      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 29 / 1800 | 20.2    | 73.6      | 1001   | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 30 / 0000 | 21.0    | 74.6      | 999    | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 30 / 0600 | 21.1    | 75.8      | 997    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 30 / 1200 | 20.8    | 76.8      | 999    | 40      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 30 / 1800 | 20.8    | 77.4      | 1000   | 35      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 0000 | 21.2    | 77.8      | 1000   | 35      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 0600 | 21.8    | 78.1      | 1000   | 35      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 1200 | 22.5    | 78.3      | 995    | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 1800 | 22.6    | 78.8      | 995    | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 0000 | 22.9    | 78.6      | 995    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 0600 | 23.4    | 78.3      | 993    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1200 | 23.9    | 78.0      | 993    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1800 | 25.1    | 77.3      | 992    | 55      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 0000 | 26.4    | 76.5      | 981    | 70      | hurricane      |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 0600 | 27.7    | 75.6      | 981    | 70      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 1200 | 28.7    | 74.4      | 981    | 70      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 1800 | 30.3    | 73.3      | 980    | 70      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 0000 | 32.3    | 72.4      | 980    | 70      | extratropical  |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 0600 | 34.3    | 71.7      | 980    | 70      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 1200 | 36.4    | 70.9      | 974    | 75      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 1800 | 38.8    | 69.7      | 970    | 75      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 0000 | 41.1    | 68.2      | 968    | 70      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 0600 | 43.6    | 66.2      | 965    | 65      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 1200 | 47.5    | 64.3      | 966    | 60      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 1800 | 51.2    | 62.2      | 966    | 60      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 0000 | 54.8    | 59.6      | 967    | 60      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 0600 | 57.9    | 57.6      | 967    | 55      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 1200 | 60.4    | 55.4      | 968    | 55      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 1800 | 62.3    | 53.3      | 974    | 55      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 0000 | 64.2    | 50.4      | 983    | 45      | "              |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 0600 |         |           |        |         | dissipated     |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 1800 | 30.3    | 73.3      | 980    | 70      | Maximum wind   |
|           |         |           |        |         | and minimum    |
|           |         |           |        |         | pressure       |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 29 / 0700 | 18.1    | 72.5      | 1002   | 45      | Landfall near  |
|           |         |           |        |         | Jacmel, Haiti  |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 30 / 0600 | 21.1    | 75.8      | 997    | 50      | Landfall near  |
|           |         |           |        |         | Guardalavaca,  |
|           |         |           |        |         | Cuba           |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1315 | 24.1    | 77.9      | 993    | 50      | Landfall       |
|           |         |           |        |         | Andros Island, |
|           |         |           |        |         | Bahamas        |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1745 | 25.0    | 77.4      | 992    | 55      | Landfall, New  |
|           |         |           |        |         | Providence     |
|           |         |           |        |         | Island, Nassau |
|           |         |           |        |         | Bahamas        |
+-----------+---------+-----------+--------+---------+----------------+

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected surface
observations for Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2 November 2007.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Dominican     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Republic**^e^   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Punta Cana      | 2   | 100 | 2   |       | 35  |     |     |     |
|                 | 8/2 | 6.0 | 8/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 200 |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Las Americas    |     |     | 2   |       | 35  |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .83 |
|                 |     |     | 700 |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santiago        | 2   | 100 | 2   |       | 35  |     |     | 9   |
|                 | 9/0 | 6.0 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .07 |
|                 | 600 |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Barhona (78482) |     |     | 2   |       | 60  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 9/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 815 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Jarabacoa       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .44 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Altamira        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .61 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Luperon         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .77 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Union        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
| (Airport)       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .93 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Gaspar Hdez     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .46 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rio San Juan    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .59 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cabrera         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .85 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nagua           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .99 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Joaquin         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 22  |
| Balaguer        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
| Airport         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Yamasa          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .35 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Monte Plata     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .71 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bayaguana       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .76 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santo Domingo   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 14  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .60 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| S.G. Boya       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .59 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Hato Mayor      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .82 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Los Llanos      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .67 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Romana       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .45 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Higuey          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .93 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Rafael Del  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| Yuma            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Moca            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 14  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .41 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Salcedo         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .37 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Vega         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 14  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .70 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Pimentel        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .19 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Angelina        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 35  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Villa Riva      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cotui           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 28  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .23 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bonao           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 16  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .46 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Juma Bonao      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 18  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .60 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Limon del Yuna  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .29 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabana Mar      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .57 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Cristobal   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .28 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Azua            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 21  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .22 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rancho Arriba   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 31  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Villa           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 20  |
| Altagracia      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .32 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bani            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 17  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .91 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Jose Ocoa   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 19  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .53 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bohechio        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 14  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .21 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Constanza       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 12  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .46 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Padre Las Casas |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 16  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .54 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Juan de la  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
| Maguana         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .85 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Barahona        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 25  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .57 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Polo            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 27  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .85 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^f^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Oviedo          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .41 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Neyba           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 12  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .82 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Duverge         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .49 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Las Matas de    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| Farfan          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .62 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Cercado      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .04 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sanchez         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Arroyo Barril   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .03 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Samana          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .15 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Catey Airport   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .64 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Haiti**       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Camp Perrin     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 25  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .78 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^g^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cayes           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .61 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^h^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Foret des Pins  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 15  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^h^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nazon,          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
| Centreville     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^h^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Port-Au-Prince  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (Airport)       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .94 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^h^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Saint-Louis du  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
| Nord            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .69 |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | ^h^ |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Cuba**        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Jiquima      | 3   | 99  | 2   |       | 31  |     |     | 5   |
| (78362)         | 0/0 | 7.9 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .71 |
|                 | 900 |     | 633 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cabo Lucrecia   | 3   | 100 | 2   |       | 38  |     |     | 3   |
| (78365)         | 0/0 | 0.3 | 9/2 |       |     |     |     | .82 |
|                 | 600 |     | 130 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guaro (78370)   | 3   | 100 | 2   |       | 27  |     |     | 2   |
|                 | 0/0 | 1.5 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .39 |
|                 | 900 |     | 145 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Pinares de      | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 17  |     |     | 6   |
| Mayari (78371)  | 0/0 | 2.7 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .00 |
|                 | 600 |     | 430 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Holguin (78372) | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 25  |     |     | 3   |
|                 | 0/0 | 1.3 | 0/2 |       |     |     |     | .46 |
|                 | 900 |     | 058 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Velasco (78378) | 3   | 99  | 3   |       | 30  |     |     | 3   |
|                 | 0/0 | 9.9 | 0/0 |       |     |     |     | .30 |
|                 | 900 |     | 610 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Las Tunas       | 3   | 100 | 1/1 |       | 32  |     |     | 4   |
| (78357)         | 0/1 | 1.9 | 840 |       |     |     |     | .75 |
|                 | 300 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Puerto Padre    | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 37  |     |     | 8   |
| (78358)         | 0/0 | 0.8 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .76 |
|                 | 920 |     | 002 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Florida (78350) | 3   | 100 | 2   |       | 40  |     |     | 0   |
|                 | 1/0 | 0.5 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .54 |
|                 | 015 |     | 710 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santa Cruz del  | 3   | 100 | 2   |       | 34  |     |     | 0   |
| Sur (78351)     | 0/2 | 1.7 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .85 |
|                 | 115 |     | 915 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Esmeralda       | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 31  |     |     | 0   |
| (78352)         | 1/0 | 0.4 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .78 |
|                 | 130 |     | 515 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nuevitas        | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 40  |     |     | 9   |
| (78353)         | 0/1 | 2.6 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     | .49 |
|                 | 700 |     | 915 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guaimaro        | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 42  |     |     | 9   |
| (78354)         | 0/1 | 1.0 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     | .02 |
|                 | 900 |     | 315 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Camaguey        | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 28  |     |     | 3   |
| (78355)         | 0/2 | 1.7 | 1/2 |       |     |     |     | .14 |
|                 | 230 |     | 020 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cayo Coco       | 3   | 99  | 3   |       | 34  |     |     | 1   |
| (78339)         | 1/2 | 7.8 | 1/2 |       |     |     |     | .64 |
|                 | 058 |     | 144 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Jucaro (78345)  | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 24  |     |     | 0   |
|                 | 1/2 | 0.0 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     | .19 |
|                 | 000 |     | 758 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Ciego de Avila  | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 25  |     |     | 0   |
| (78346)         | 1/0 | 0.4 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     | .78 |
|                 | 900 |     | 850 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Falla (78347)   | 3   | 99  | 3   |       | 26  |     |     | 1   |
|                 | 1/0 | 9.8 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     | .22 |
|                 | 900 |     | 900 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Gran Piedra     |     |     | 3   |       | 113 |     |     | 6   |
| (78366)         |     |     | 0/0 |       | ^i^ |     |     | .74 |
|                 |     |     | 010 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Universidad     |     |     | 3   |       | 54  |     |     | 3   |
| (78364)         |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .32 |
|                 |     |     | 648 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Mansanillo      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (78359)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .21 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cabo Cruz       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
| (78360)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .08 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Contramaestre   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| (78363)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .19 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Artemisa        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
| (78319)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .41 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guantanamo      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
| (78334)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .30 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guantanamo      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
| (78356)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .15 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guantanamo      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
| (78368)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .77 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Punta de Maisi  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (78369)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .69 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Guantanamo      | 3   | 100 | 3   |       | 46  |     |     |     |
| (MUGM)          | 0/0 | 4.4 | 1/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 855 |     | 155 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santiago De     |     |     | 3   |       | 40  |     |     |     |
| Cuba (MUCU)     |     |     | 0/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 355 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Bahamas**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Georgetown      | 0   | 99  | 0   | 31    | 42  |     |     |     |
| (MYEG)          | 1/1 | 8.6 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 716 |     | 601 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nassau (MYNN)   | 0   | 99  | 0   | 30    | 36  |     |     | 4   |
|                 | 1/1 | 3.0 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     | .60 |
|                 | 700 |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Exuma           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .62 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Long Island     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 29  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .43 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Freeport (MYGF) | 0   | 100 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 1/2 | 1.4 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 200 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Congo Town      | 0   | 99  |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (78084)         | 1/2 | 3.6 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 100 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Andros Island) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rock Sound      | 0   | 99  | 0   | 35    |     |     |     |     |
| (78080)         | 1/2 | 4.3 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 000 |     | 900 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Eleuthera)     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Deadman's Cay   | 012 | 100 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (78094)         | 004 | 0.6 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Long Island)   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Moss Town       | 0   | 99  | 0   | 31    |     |     |     |     |
| (78091)         | 1/1 | 8.6 | 1/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 904 |     | 404 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Exuma)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| South Bimini    | 0   | 100 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (78069)         | 1/2 | 0.0 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 000 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Bimini)        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nassau          | 0   | 98  | 0   | 30    | 40  |     |     |     |
|                 | 1/1 | 9.7 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 914 |     | 030 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Buoy/CMAN**   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| 41046- E. of    | 0   | 100 | 0   | 31^j^ | 35  |     |     |     |
| Bahamas         | 2/0 | 7.0 | 2/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 642 |     | 616 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (24.0°N 71.0°W) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| 41047- NE. of   | 0   | 100 | 0   | 54    | 62  |     |     |     |
| Bahamas         | 2/1 | 1.0 | 2/1 | ^j^   |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 211 |     | 353 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (27.5°N 71.5°W) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ Rainfall totals from the Dominican Republic are accumulations
between 25-31 October. The totals include rainfall from Noel and its
incipient low.

^f^ Incomplete.

^g^ Rainfall total between 6 am 28 October and 6 am 2 November.

^h^ Rainfall total between 28-30 October.

^i^ Elevated location.

^j^ 1-min average.

Table 3. Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt that are
directly associated with Noel, 28 October-2 November 2007.

+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| **        | **Ship    | **L       | **Lo      | **Wind**  | **P       |
| Date/Time | call      | atitude** | ngitude** |           | ressure** |
| (UTC)**   | sign**    |           |           | **        |           |
|           |           | **(°N)**  | **(°W)**  | dir/speed | **(mb)**  |
|           |           |           |           | (kt)**    |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 0600 | PDKK      | 17.4      | 69.5      | 170 / 37  | 1005.5    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 1500 | KS004     | 21.6      | 70.6      | 160 / 35  | 1011.6    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 1500 | ZCDP8     | 21.4      | 70.4      | 120 / 38  | 1009.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 1800 | VQHO7     | 17.7      | 70.1      | 140 / 35  | 1009.6    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 1800 | ZCDP8     | 21.0      | 69.6      | 150 / 40  | 1010.1    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 1800 | C6FN5     | 21.1      | 69.6      | 130 / 37  | 1007.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 2100 | WDB3258   | 21.0      | 75.3      | 040 / 34  | 1008.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 0000 | WDB3258   | 21.0      | 74.8      |           | 1002.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1000 | WZJC      | 21.3      | 75.1      | 120 / 37  | 1003.5    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 01 / 0600 | H3GQ      | 25.5      | 79.5      | 050 / 37  | 1004.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 02 / 0000 | A8MH9     | 25.8      | 72.2      | 130 / 39  | 1005.7    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 02 / 0600 | A8MH9     | 24.3      | 72.4      | 150 / 37  | 1004.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 02 / 1800 | DEDI      | 30.2      | 76.1      | 020 / 35  | 1001.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 02 / 1900 | P3ZY6     | 31.0      | 75.9      | 030 / 41  | 1001.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Track forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2 November. Forecast errors (n
mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors
smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include the
extratropical stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 64    | 132   | 187   | 233   | 293   | 160 ( | 255 ( |
|           | (22)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 55    | 88    | 98    | **98  | **176 | 220 ( |       |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (     | (     | 5)    |       |
|           |       |       |       | 12)** | 7)**  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | **46  | 86    | 115   | 169   | 326   | 455 ( | 494 ( |
|           | (     | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |
|           | 22)** |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | **45  | **74  | 103   | 144   | 233   | 198 ( | 281 ( |
|           | (     | (     | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
|           | 21)** | 19)** |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 55    | 90    | 130   | 126   | 229 ( | 178 ( | 416 ( |
|           | (21)  | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | 7)    | 4)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 61    | 85    | 112   | 164   | 263 ( | 403 ( | 704 ( |
|           | (21)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 4)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 59    | 95    | 127   | 179   | 288 ( | 351 ( | 253 ( |
|           | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | 8)    | 5)    | 2)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 56    | 87    | 101   | **100 | **101 | 202 ( | 322 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (     | (     | 7)    | 3)    |
|           |       |       |       | 15)** | 11)** |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | **45  | **64  | **85  | **106 | **161 | 221 ( | 215 ( |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | 8)    | 4)    |
|           | 22)** | 20)** | 18)** | 16)** | 12)** |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 57    | 96    | 126   | 147   | **172 | 147 ( | 323 ( |
|           | (22)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (     | 8)    | 4)    |
|           |       |       |       |       | 12)** |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 81    | 143   | 195   | 237   | 296   | 318 ( | 490 ( |
|           | (22)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | **48  | **74  | **87  | **93  | **154 | 140 ( | **139 |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | 8)    | (     |
|           | 22)** | 20)** | 18)** | 16)** | 12)** |       | 4)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | **44  | **63  | **74  | **98  | **156 | 132 ( | **127 |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | 4)    | (     |
|           | 19)** | 17)** | 15)** | 12)** | 6)**  |       | 1)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | **42  | **56  | **76  | **97  | 188 ( | 128 ( | 272 ( |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
|           | 19)** | 17)** | 15)** | 13)** |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 51    | 78    | 97    | 120   | 180   | 97 (  | 184 ( |
|           | (22)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 61    | 86    | 112   | 162   | 221   | 290   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 5. Intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2 November 2007. Forecast errors (kt) are
followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than
the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type. Verification
includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical
stage.

+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number  | For   |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| range   | ecast |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| C       | P     |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| HAPTERF | eriod |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| orecast | (h)   |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| Te      |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| chnique |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
+=========+=======+========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|         | 12    | 24     | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHF5    | 9.1   | 10.6   | *     | 13.8  | *     | *     | *     |
|         | (22)  | (20)   | *10.9 | (16)  | *10.8 | *10.3 | *12.3 |
|         |       |        | (     |       | (     | (     | (     |
|         |       |        | 18)** |       | 12)** | 8)**  | 4)**  |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI    | 8.0   | 10.6   | 15.9  | 19.8  | 20.8  | *     | **8.0 |
|         | (22)  | (20)   | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | *13.3 | (     |
|         |       |        |       |       |       | (     | 4)**  |
|         |       |        |       |       |       | 8)**  |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI    | 8.3   | **9.1  | 12.2  | 15.3  | *     | 19.4  | **8.3 |
|         | (21)  | (19)** | (17)  | (15)  | *12.8 | ( 7)  | (     |
|         |       |        |       |       | (     |       | 3)**  |
|         |       |        |       |       | 11)** |       |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP    | 8.2   | 10.3   | 13.2  | 18.4  | 20.4  | 19.4  | **8.8 |
|         | (22)  | (20)   | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | ( 8)  | (     |
|         |       |        |       |       |       |       | 4)**  |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP    | **7.5 | **9.6  | *     | 14.1  | 16.1  | *     | 26.5  |
|         | (     | (20)** | *10.5 | (16)  | (12)  | *13.1 | ( 4)  |
|         | 22)** |        | (     |       |       | (     |       |
|         |       |        | 18)** |       |       | 8)**  |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE    | 8.4   | 10.9   | 13.3  | *     | 14.9  | 24.2  | 34.0  |
|         | (19)  | (17)   | (15)  | *11.5 | ( 9)  | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |
|         |       |        |       | (     |       |       |       |
|         |       |        |       | 13)** |       |       |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON    | **7.1 | **8.5  | *     | 15.1  | 15.0  | *     | **9.3 |
|         | (     | (20)** | *11.2 | (16)  | (12)  | *12.1 | (     |
|         | 22)** |        | (     |       |       | (     | 4)**  |
|         |       |        | 18)** |       |       | 8)**  |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL    | 8.0   | 10.3   | 11.7  | 12.2  | 13.8  | 15.6  | 20.0  |
|         | (22)  | (20)   | (18)  | (16)  | (12)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC     | 6.4   | 9.8    | 12.0  | 14.1  | 18.3  | 19.8  | 21.8  |
| O       |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| fficial | \(1   | \(     | \(1   | \(1   | \(1   | \(    | \(    |
|         | 852\) | 1686\) | 519\) | 362\) | 100\) | 885\) | 723\) |
| (20     |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| 02-2006 |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)   |       |        |       |       |       |       |       |
+---------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 6. Tropical Cyclone watch and warning summary
for Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2 November 2007.

+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| Da      | Action                       | Location                   |
| te/Time |                              |                            |
| (UTC)   |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 28/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Southwestern peninsula of  |
| 0300    | issued                       | Haiti from Haiti-Dominican |
|         |                              | Republic border to         |
|         |                              | Port-Au-Prince             |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 28/     | Tropical Storm Watch issued  | Cuban Provinces of         |
| 0300    |                              | Granma...                  |
|         |                              |                            |
|         |                              | Santiago De Cuba...and     |
|         |                              | Guantanamo.                |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 28/     | Tropical Storm Watch issued  | Jamaica                    |
| 1200    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 28/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | extended northward to      |
| 2100    | extended                     | include entire coast of    |
|         |                              | Haiti                      |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 28/     | Tropical Storm Watch         | Cuban Provinces of         |
| 2100    | replaced with Tropical Storm | Granma...Santiago De       |
|         | Warning and a Hurricane      | Cuba...Guantanamo...and    |
|         | Watch                        | Holguin                    |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Southeastern               |
| 0900    | issued                       | Bahamas...including the    |
|         |                              | Turks and Caicos Islands   |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Watch issued  | Central Bahamas            |
| 0900    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Watch         | Central Bahamas            |
| 1500    | replaced with Tropical Storm |                            |
|         | Warning                      |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Hurricane Watch discontinued | all                        |
| 1500    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Jamaica and the Cuban      |
| 1500    | discontinued                 | Provinces of Granma and    |
|         |                              | Santiago                   |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | South of Gonaives, Haiti   |
| 1800    | discontinued                 |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Cuban Provinces of         |
| 2100    | extended                     | Camaguey and Las Tunas     |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 29/     | Tropical Storm Watch issued  | Northwestern Bahamas       |
| 2100    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Cuban Province of Ciego de |
| 0300    | extended                     | Avila                      |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Remainder of Haiti         |
| 0300    | discontinued                 |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Turks and Caicos           |
| 0600    | discontinued                 |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning and   | Northwestern Bahamas       |
| 0900    | Hurricane Watch issued       |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Southeastern Bahamas       |
| 1200    | discontinued                 |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Hurricane Watch discontinued | Northwestern Bahamas       |
| 1500    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 30/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Cuban Province of Sancti   |
| 2100    | extended                     | Spiritus                   |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 31/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Cuban Province of Sancti   |
| 1500    | discontinued                 | Spiritus and Guantanamo    |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 31/     | Tropical Storm Watch issued  | Florida east coast from    |
| 2100    |                              | Ocean Reef to Jupiter      |
|         |                              | Inlet                      |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 01/     | Hurricane Watch issued       | Northwestern Bahamas       |
| 0300    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 01/     | Tropical Storm Watch         | Ocean Reef to Deerfield    |
| 0900    | replaced with Tropical Storm | Beach                      |
|         | Warning                      |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 01/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Remainder of Cuba          |
| 0900    | discontinued                 |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 01/     | Tropical Storm Watch         | Deerfield Beach to Jupiter |
| 1500    | discontinued                 | Inlet                      |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 01/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Ocean Reef to Deerfield    |
| 1800    | discontinued                 | Beach                      |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 02/     | Tropical Storm Warning       | Central and Northwest      |
| 0300    | discontinued                 | Bahamas                    |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+
| 02/     | Hurricane Watch discontinued | Northwest Bahamas          |
| 0300    |                              |                            |
+---------+------------------------------+----------------------------+

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.615972222222222in"
height="5.860416666666667in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Noel,
28 October-2 November 2007. Track during the extratropical stage is
partially based on analyses from the Canadian Hurricane Center and the
Ocean Prediction Center. The 965 mb minimum pressure shown on the map
represents the lowest minimum pressure during the extratropical phase.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="8.131944444444445in"
height="6.257638888888889in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Close-up of the best track positions for
Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2 November 2007.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.373611111111111in"
height="5.147222222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Noel, 28
October-2 November 2007. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for
elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations
from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde
observations include actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface
estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind
sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL).
Estimates during the extratropical stage are partially based on analyses
from the Canadian Hurricane Center and the Ocean Prediction Center.
Dashed vertical lines indicated 0000 UTC. Thin solid vertical lines
denote landfalls.

![](media/image4.wmf){width="7.345833333333333in"
height="5.147916666666666in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 4. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Noel, 28 October-2
November 2007. Estimates during the extratropical stage are primarily
based on analyses from the Canadian Hurricane Center and the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center. Dashed vertical lines indicated 0000 UTC. Thin solid
vertical lines denote landfalls.

**A) GOES image from 0015 UTC 2 Nov. B) Goes image from 2345 UTC 2
Nov.**

![](media/image5.jpeg){width="2.9972222222222222in"
height="2.9972222222222222in"}![](media/image6.jpeg){width="2.9972222222222222in"
height="2.9972222222222222in"}

C**) SSMIS image from 0022 UTC 2 Nov. D) SSMI image from 2332 UTC 2
Nov.**

![](media/image7.jpeg){width="3.0in"
height="3.0in"}![](media/image8.jpeg){width="3.0in" height="3.0in"}

Figure 5. Geostationary (A and B) and microwave (C and D) satellite
images of the approximate times that Noel obtained hurricane strength (A
and C) and when Noel became extratropical (B and D). Note the dramatic
decrease in inner-core convection during this 24-h period. Images are
courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory.