**The New England Regional Airport System Plan**

Helping New England Be New England

**Sponsored by the New England Airport Coalition**

-   Bangor International Airport

-   Boston Logan International Airport

-   Bradley International Airport

-   Burlington International Airport

-   L. G. Hanscom Field

-   Manchester - Boston Regional Airport

-   Portland International Jetport

-   Portsmouth International Airport

-   T. F. Green Airport

-   Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

-   Worcester Regional Airport

-   Connecticut Department of Transportation

    -   Bureau of Aviation & Ports

-   Maine Department of Transportation

    -   Passenger Transportation Division

-   Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission

-   Massachusetts Port Authority

-   New Hampshire Department of Transportation

    -   Bureau of Aeronautics

-   Rhode Island Airport Corporation

-   Vermont Agency of Transportation

    -   Aviation Program

-   FAA Airports Division

-   New England Council

**Inside\...**

+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| How Does Aviation Help New England Be New England?\     | 4          |
| New Englanders fly a rate 80 percent higher than the    |            |
| national average. Knowing why helps us understand the   |            |
| essence of our region and how air transportation helps  |            |
| to preserve it.                                         |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Understanding Regional Airport System Dynamics\         | 7          |
| Understanding regional airport system dynamics begins   |            |
| with understanding the evolving nature of the airline   |            |
| industry and its interaction with airport development.  |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Building the Forecasts - The Basic Logic and            | 14         |
| Assumptions\                                            |            |
| Forecasts are more than numbers; here's a brief primer  |            |
| on developing a critical eye for interpreting the       |            |
| products of the forecasting models.                     |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Forecast Results                                        | 18         |
|                                                         |            |
| What they tell us about the nature of the air           |            |
| transportation services required by the next generation |            |
| of air passengers.                                      |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Challenges for the Regional System                      | 27         |
|                                                         |            |
| This presents a strategic approach to providing an      |            |
| essential public service that relies upon a constantly  |            |
| evolving private airline industry.                      |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Meet the Airports                                       | 34         |
|                                                         |            |
| A summary of key facts and issues for each of the       |            |
| study's airports.                                       |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Bangor International Airport                        | 34         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Boston Logan International Airport                  | 36         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Bradley International Airport                       | 38         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Burlington International Airport                    | 40         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   L.G. Hanscom Field                                  | 42         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Manchester Boston Regional Airport                  | 44         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Portland International Jetport                      | 46         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Portsmouth International Airport                    | 48         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   T.F. Green Airport                                  | 50         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport                    | 52         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| -   Worcester Regional Airport                          | 54         |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+
| Finally...                                              | 56         |
|                                                         |            |
| Some final thoughts on the commitment required to       |            |
| achieving this vision and an acknowledgement of the     |            |
| organizations and individuals who contributed to this   |            |
| effort.                                                 |            |
+---------------------------------------------------------+------------+

**Introduction**

In the early nineties, the New England Region was faced with a dilemma
that threatened its future economic development and vitality. In a world
that was increasingly dependent upon air transportation, New England's
primary airport, Boston Logan International Airport, was running out of
capacity and efforts to land bank a site for a new major airport had
failed.

In the best Yankee tradition, the region began to examine how to make
the best use of the resources they had - a system of under-utilized
regional airports. By the end of the decade a unique collaborative
effort involving all six state aviation agencies and eleven passenger
service airports had positioned the regional airports to benefit from
the entry of low fare carriers and had improved access to airline
services for passengers throughout New England. However, the question
remained, "Will this be enough to provide for the needs of the next
generation of air passengers?"

To answer this question this coalition sponsored the New England Region
Airport System Study (NERASP). This study discovered some very
interesting answers to this central question. First, the region has an
unusually high reliance on air transportation. Second, the system does
have the ability to meet passenger demand through 2020. But to do so
requires continued efforts to enhance the performance of each airport in
the system. This is essential to achieve the level of efficiency and
resiliency the system must have for a region so dependent on the
services of a constantly evolving airline industry.

A majority of the Region's passengers will continue to fly through
Boston Logan International Airport. Therefore, the system will rely upon
Logan to continue to improve its efficiency in handling aircraft
operations and passengers. This study also identifies several airports
that could improve the performance of the regional system if they can
overcome the challenges they face in developing the services required by
their communities. For example, Providence's T. F. Green Airport lacks
sufficient runway length to efficiently serve its communities' needs for
west coast and international markets. Worcester and New Haven have the
potential to serve a total of 3.8 million passengers, drawing almost one
million of these passengers away from congested airports in New England
and New York. The forecast models also reveal an emerging market for jet
service from Cape Cod to major domestic markets.

This report describes the foundations of a regional strategy for the air
carrier airport system to support the needs of air passengers through
2020. Its underlying theme is to develop an airport system based upon
the location of passengers and with adequate facilities to allow
airlines to evolve the range of services that provide the best mix of
efficiency, convenience, and reliability.

By providing this forward vision of the region's needs, this study hopes
to promote a common understanding of the challenges that need to be
addressed by local airport planning and development programs.

**A message from the Administrator of the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA)**

New England continues to lead the way with an effort that is marked by
both ingenuity and conservation of valuable resources. The New England
Regional Airport System Plan is a blueprint that will be of great
benefit to the passenger service airports in the great northeast.

This project represents an unparalleled collaboration by the six New
England state aviation agencies and their passenger jet service
airports. This plan combines the best and the brightest from academia,
industry and government.

What you'll find is a shared understanding of the challenges and
opportunities presented to New England's airport system. This document
provides our airport managers and their governmental sponsors with a
clearer view of the action required to support the air transportation
needs of their communities. This means that significant investments can
be made with an understanding of the long-term needs of the region's
passengers. More to the point, this plan is not influenced by the ups
and

downs of the airline industry.

The value of applying regional planning for preparing for tomorrow's
challenges to our aviation system is of such national importance that I
have made the completion of this study part of FAA's Flight Plan.

Marion C. Blakey

Federal Aviation Administration

**A Message from FAA's New England Regional Administrator**

In less than ten years, the United States will reach one billion
passengers annually. The emergence of very light jets, the move from
wide-body aircraft to smaller jets, and the shift to new entrants are
changing the way Americans travel by air. It is an exciting future for
the aviation industry.

The New England Regional Airport System Plan represents a key step in
preparing for the future. It combines regional planning, economic
development, and insightful knowledge of the air carrier industry to
create a superb decision resource for the future development of the 11
passenger jet airports in the region. It will provide invaluable
guidance for airport operators as they make important facility
development decisions. In addition, it will support the regional
coordination among airports required to serve the unique air
transportation needs of the New England region.

If aviation is the lifeblood of America's economy, and our airport
system is the heartbeat that makes it go, this is doubly true for New
England. There are challenges ahead. The New England Regional Airport
System Plan inspires confidence that we will be ready to meet them.

Amy L. Corbett

Regional Administrator

FAA New England Region

**A Message from this Study's Sponsoring Agencies and Airports**

The coalition of the region's major airports, the six New England state
aviation agencies, and the Federal Aviation Administration are proud of
our latest effort the New England Regional Airport System Plan to
understand the air transportation needs of New England.

Our coalition was established in the early '90s to develop a continuous
approach to monitoring and managing the progress and

challenges of our New England airport system. We found that the
development of this information at the system level gives us greater
confidence as we strive to support the policies and investments required
for the continued growth and prosperity of each of our jurisdictions
within the New England region.

-   Bangor International Airport

-   Boston Logan International Airport

-   Bradley International Airport

-   Burlington International Airport

-   L.G. Hanscom Field

-   Manchester Boston Region Airport

-   Portland International Jetport

-   Portsmouth International Airport

-   T. F. Green Airport

-   Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

-   Worcester Regional Airport

-   Connecticut Department of Transportation

-   Maine Department of Transportation

-   Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission

-   Massachusetts Port Authority

-   New Hampshire Department of Transportation

-   Rhode Island Airport Corporation

-   Vermont Agency of Transportation

**Message from the Manager, FAA New England Region Airports Division**

Normally our Division's role is to provide funding and technical review
to studies performed by the airports and state aviation agencies. For
the past 12 years, however, the New England Region has enjoyed a true
collaboration with this coalition. This partnership has allowed us to
produce the quality of information that has successfully guided the
investments leading to a stronger regional airport system. I want to
take this opportunity to thank all the participants for the spirit of
trust and cooperation that has been a defining element of our regional
programs.

A high level of effort was directed at producing a report that would be
informative to interested members of the public who do not have
extensive aviation backgrounds. I hope all readers find that they have
gained a deeper insight into the issues that will be engaging those of
us working individually and collectively to meet the needs of New
England's next generation of air passengers.

And, finally, I would like to express my appreciation and admiration for
the consultant and agency staff directly involved in producing this
report. They have provided us with a product that not only advances the
needs for our region, but also advances the very practice of regional
airport system planning itself.

Laverne Reid

Manager,

FAA New England Airports Division

**How Does Aviation Help New England Be New England?**

**Introduction**

New England has an unusually high reliance on air transportation. The
region generates 2.5 air passenger trips per year per capita, almost 80
percent higher than the national rate of 1.4. While this is a remarkable
fact, a closer look reveals that several of the essential attributes of
New England offer a plausible explanation for this high level of air
travel. These attributes can be grouped into four categories geography,
economy, population and cultural and scenic resources. Taken together
they portray the very essence of New England. And underlying this
portrait is a vision of the critical role

of high quality air transportation in sustaining the variety of
attributes that combine to sustain this essence. Let's take a closer
look at these.

**Geography Economy Population Resources**

The factor that weaves these attributes together is air transportation.

**Geography**

New England's location in the northeast corner of the country tends to
turn New Englanders toward air travel. While high-speed rail offers a
good alternative to New York, Philadelphia and Washington, business
travelers have few alternatives

to air beyond this range. For most trips to other parts of the country,
the convenience and speed of air travel is compelling. And with the
emergence of low fare service, an increasing percentage of New
England-based leisure travelers

have come to prefer air travel as well.

**Economy**

Some economists believe that economic growth will flow toward areas with
a critical mass of people who are creative, enterprising, and
collaborative. (See Footnote 1) This "creative class," scientists,
engineers, academics, doctors, and media professionals, seek to locate
in places that exhibit certain qualities. These include an appreciation
of individual merit, a tolerant social environment, an academic
atmosphere, and opportunities to participate in active, outdoor
recreational pursuits. New England fits this profile in a number of
ways: the number of educational institutions, the culturally and
ethnically diverse cities, the heritage of independent thinking, and
easy access to a wide range of recreational experiences. As just one
example of the existence of this type of economy in New England, the
percentage of New England's jobs in the medical, educational, and
"information" fields is nearly 20 percent - as compared to just under 15
percent for the country as a whole. (See Footnote 2)

While advances in telecommunications and information technology have
substituted to some degree for face-to-face communication, there still
is a tremendous reliance on travel among participants in the knowledge
industries. And the region's acknowledged national leadership in
education and medicine also tend to support the use of air travel.
Researchers, medical professionals, patients, faculty, students, and
conference participants travel to and from New England in great numbers
and they do it by air.

Finally, international markets are increasing in importance for the New
England economy. This is especially true of the rapidly developing Asian
economies which are expanding in sectors (high technology,
communications, etc.) that are of

relevance to New England's own economy. The correspondence between these
economies naturally contributes to the region's high rate of business
air travel.

**Population**

Income and education levels that are well above the national average
characterize the region's population. The 2000 U.S. Census indicates
that two of the 5 most affluent states are Massachusetts and
Connecticut. These higher incomes support higher levels of leisure air
travel. This has been further stimulated by the expansion of low fare
airlines throughout the New England market. And it is yet to be
determined the extent to which leisure travel will grow, as baby boomers
enter retirement with higher levels of disposable income and greater
inclinations to travel than previous generations.

The degree to which the New England economy relies on its airports can
be seen by considering a few other facts: in 2004, over 45 million
people traveled by air from a New England airport to destinations in all
50 states and numerous countries. Over 700 metric tons of cargo - from
electronic components and fresh flowers to tuna and maple syrup - was
transported by aircraft from Logan Airport.

Airports are also a very important center of business activity in the
region. It is estimated that the combined impact of revenues and
payrolls generated by the NERASP airports exceeds 13 billion dollars per
year.

**Scenic and Cultural Resources**

It has been said that had the United States been settled from West to
East, all of New England would today be a national park. While that may
be debatable, what is less debatable is the touchstone of the New
England regional identity. The New England landscape is alive with
spectacle, variety, and compelling natural beauty. It speaks to all of
us: natives, long-time residents and even the college students who come,
graduate and decide to stick around awhile. A natural magnet for
tourism, the New England landscape is a human-scale panorama. It extends
from the embrace of the Housatonic Valley to the hilly sanctuaries of
the Berkshires; from the lakes of Central Massachusetts to the Maine
coast; from the salt marshes of Cape Cod to Vermont's Mount Mansfield;
and from the kettle ponds of Rhode Island's South County to the majestic
Presidential Range of New Hampshire. There are few geographic brands as
successful as "made in New England," whether the product being sold is
fall foliage, ski vacations, striper fishing, or maple syrup. Of course,
the ultimate New England "product" is much of our national heritage;
this includes, for example, pilgrims' landings, sea trading, whaling,
ship building, and the first shots fired in the war for independence.
These qualities make New England a popular destination for travelers
from throughout the country and abroad, and they travel here
overwhelmingly by air.

**Summary**

The special attributes discussed above - involving geography, economy,
population and resources - are essential ingredients in the formation of
the New England identity. And these attributes tend to support one
another. For example, the cultural and

scenic qualities of the region are one of the "qualities" that attract
"creative class\" industries; and the existence of these industries
produces a population with higher levels of income and education. And
the factor that weaves these attributes together is air transportation.
It provides the ready two-way access between New England and the
national and international markets essential for the function of the
region\'s economy and the lifestyle of its population.

It was recognition of this reliance of New England on air transportation
services that forged the alliance of the region\'s state aviation
agencies and major airports, and motivated them to undertake this study.
Given this understanding of why New Englander\'s fly 80 percent more
frequently than the national rate, it is essential to have a strategy
for developing an airport system that supports the aspirations of the
region's population and industries. This report describes both the
analytical underpinnings and the specific actions comprising such a
strategy for ensuring the vitality of the regional airport system
through the next twenty years.

An example of how New England leads in knowledge industries is
demonstrated by its role in medical training. Nearly 10 percent of the
375 member institutions of the (COTH), which represents the best
hospitals in the country, are located

in New England. Massachusetts alone, the cornerstone of the New England
medical sector, is home to 16 COTH member institutions, nearly one-half
the New England total.

New England\'s regional airports have continued to evolve into a true
system, a system in which increasingly overlapping service areas and
improved ground access options are providing passengers with real
options as they make air travel decisions.

**Understanding Regional Airport System Dynamics**

**Scheduled Passenger Jet Service Airports**

The New England Regional Airport System Plan (NERASP) study is the
latest effort in an ongoing program of regional planning that began
around 1990. (See Footnote 3) New England\'s commitment to regional
airport planning arose from two related concerns.

First, Logan Airport in Boston, the region\'s busiest airport, was
becoming increasingly congested and efforts to either expand capacity or
develop a second major airport were judged impractical. (See Sidebar
\"How About a Second Major Airport in New England?\")

Second, there was a growing awareness that several under-utilized
airports were within easy reach of the Boston region and were capable of
supporting jet service to major destinations outside New England. Many
of these had just completed facility projects in response to development
of new airline services following deregulation only to find passengers
drawn back to Logan by airline price wars. In response to an initiative
begun by the New England Council, the New England region formed a
coalition of its scheduled jet service airports, the state aviation
agencies, and the Federal Aviation Administration began to develop a
plan for enhancing airline services throughout the region. (See Footnote
4)

This effort to improve the development of regional airport services had
the following three objectives:

1\. Improve customer service - match air travel service to passengers'
needs.

2\. Support the region's economy - ensure an efficient and reliable
system of air service development consistent with the region's growth.

3\. Provide an environmentally sound air service system - minimize total
distance traveled to access air travel, reduce passenger demand at
congested airports, and avoid the need for developing a new major air
passenger airport in New England.

Understanding regional airport system dynamics begins with understanding
the evolving nature of the airline industry and its interaction with
airport development

**The Dynamics of the Regional Airport System**

The behavior of this region's airport system has primarily resulted from
the interaction of airline services with the distribution of demand for
airline services across the region. (See Footnote 5) By increasing their
understanding of both the nature of passenger needs and the business
strategies of the airlines, the public agencies in New England
responsible for the airport system have substantially improved the
distribution of air services for the region. This can be seen in the
following review of major patterns of airline competitive strategies and
consequent impacts on airport development since the deregulation of the
airline industry.

**Post-deregulation**

**(1982-1989)**

In the early 1980s, just after airline deregulation, Logan served 78
percent of the region's air passengers. Over the course of the decade,
the development of hub and spoke systems by major airlines and
aggressive airline expansion strategies introduced new jet services at
regional airports and increased the use of connecting flights between
Logan and regional airports with new turboprop aircraft. The regional
airports invested in expanding passenger facilities and airfield
improvements in reaction to rapid growth in passenger activity. By 1989,
Logan's share of the market had declined to 68 percent.

**Competition for market share in major markets**

**(1990-1995)**

The early 1990s ushered in a period of economic decline. In response to
operating deficits, airlines shifted towards a business strategy of
market dominance in major markets. This led to fare wars at Logan and
premium fares at regional airports. Growth at regional airports was
stagnant. Some airports were financially strained by recently expanded,
but under-utilized facilities. In an effort to create more system
balance and to support regional economic expansion, a coalition of
airport sponsors and aviation agencies was formed to promote the
development of air transportation service

throughout the region. The first action was to conduct a study of the
geographical distribution of air passenger

markets across the region. The purpose of this was to evaluate the
opportunity for improved jet services at the regional airports.

Armed with this study, in 1996, this coalition launched

its "Fly New England" campaign. It included:

-   A regional conference with all of the airlines to introduce the
    study findings,

-   Collaborative marketing campaigns to improve passengers' and travel
    agents' awareness of regional airports,

-   Use of the study data by airport managers to demonstrate to airlines
    the opportunities for enhancing revenues through lowered fares and
    improved routes, and

-   Funding of key runway and facility improvements to support regional
    airport markets.

**Entry of low fare airlines and growth of regional airports**

**(1996-2000)**

Coincident with the efforts of the "Fly New England" campaign, Southwest
Airlines decided to expand into the New England market through the
region's secondary airports rather than Logan, expanding first at
Providence and then into Manchester and Bradley. This was a significant
catalyst to regional demand as their entry was met with both service
improvements and fare reductions by the existing airlines.

This led to a complete reversal of the pattern of passenger growth over
the first half of the decade ([See Figure #1](#figure_1)). From
1990-1996, Logan accommodated 77 percent of the 2.9 million passenger
increase in New England. Over the next three years, when the region's
air passengers increased by 6.3 million, the regional airports
accommodated three-fourths of the region's growth. During this same
period, new terminal and parking facilities were completed at Bradley,
major runway extensions and terminal improvements were built at
Manchester, and T.F. Green expanded terminal facilities and access road
capacity. Logan completed a major modernization of its terminal and
circulatory roadway system. Meanwhile Logan embarked on a major planning
and environmental study to find ways to improve its airfield in order to
continue serving the core Boston

metropolitan market.

[]{#figure_1 .anchor}**Figure 1**

![](media/image1.png){width="2.2291666666666665in"
height="5.052083333333333in"}

**Post recession and terrorism**

**(2001-2005)**

Clearly, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, caused an
unprecedented and immediate decline in air passenger activity. Logan was
already experiencing reduced activity due to the shake-up of the
"dot-com" and financial sectors and the resulting decline in business
travel. This was a period of tremendous financial crisis It led to
financial restructuring, a drastic reduction in the number of aircraft
being flown, and a growing effort to emulate low fare carriers. Airlines
pulled out of smaller markets such as Worcester. Despite these
conditions, the other regional airports demonstrated a solid market that
recovered much more quickly. In fact, from 2001 through 2005 Manchester
maintained positive year to year growth.

However, as financial difficulties from multiple fronts continued to
undercut the profits of the large network carriers, they have once again
concentrated their downsized fleets in the largest airport markets.
Logan and its significant passenger base has benefited. Logan now has
low fare service to an extensive national network and airports such as
Manchester are experiencing declining activity due to service reductions
by the network carriers. (See Footnote 6)

**Lessons Learned**

And so we see that the past 20-plus years of air travel have featured
dramatic fluctuations. These have included the creation of hub and
spokes services following deregulation to a period of market dominance
and fare wars in the larger market airports to the growth of the
regional airports to the current post-9/11 environment. This has led to
a number of useful findings and observations. They are as follows:

**Major Drivers**

-   Airline competitive strategies are constantly evolving and have
    significant impact on levels of activity at airports.

-   The growth in demand for air travel, the improvements in cost
    efficiency of new aircraft and the emergence of new airlines will
    continue to drive innovation in airline business strategies.

-   Given the previous two conditions, airport planning that bases its
    decisions on current airline service strategies will likely be in
    error. Developing airport facilities must be based on a longer-term
    understanding of passenger needs.

**Specific Regional Dynamics**

-   Manchester and Providence have similar relationships with Logan in
    that they function as alternative bases for airlines that compete
    for passengers from the greater Boston metropolitan area. Airlines
    prefer to match services from both airports. Inadequate facilities
    in one location can impede service development at both.

-   The leakage rates and new service opportunities estimated in the mid
    nineties were a strong predictor of where passenger growth occurred
    in the late nineties. (See Footnote 7) This is an initial
    confirmation of the validity of the analytical approaches being used
    in these studies.

-   During periods of consolidation of airline services, airports
    dominated by low-fare carriers may lose service more rapidly

since the network carriers will be targeting their services toward
markets with higher profit margins.

**Tactical Lessons**

-   There are unpredictable and significant shifts in levels of
    passenger activity. Financial plans for facility investments must be
    able to withstand fluctuations in revenue.

-   A new entrant airline at Worcester and Portsmouth, Allegiant Air,
    purchased baggage handling and ramp services from local aviation
    service companies. Though this airline has since left Worcester, it
    may still serve as a business model that could allow other airlines
    to enter these markets without having to commit to the overhead of
    staffing a new station.

-   Passengers are averse to lengthy and unpredictable delays in all
    segments of their air travel since it requires starting a journey
    with an extra margin of time that will most often be perceived as
    wasted waiting in an airport terminal. If an airport can demonstrate
    greater reliability and predictability of all portions of the air
    trip, they may be able to significantly influence the passengers'
    choice of airports.

**High Speed Rail**

-   During the initial period following 9/11, there was an increase in
    passengers using Amtrak service to the New York City area.
    Unfortunately, equipment problems interrupted this shift in mode
    choice. Nonetheless, Amtrak rail service demonstrated its value as a
    complement and back up to air service for this segment of the
    Northeast Corridor. Of course, neither mode is a perfect substitute
    for the other. Public investments need to evaluate each system on
    terms of its own primary passenger base and consider their ability
    to complement each other as an additional and highly desirable
    public benefit.

**History of Regional Planning in the New England Region**

**1989**

Massachusetts System Plan identified the need to land bank a site for a
second major airport as Logan was forecasted to reach capacity by 2010.

**1990**

Massachusetts initiated a site selection study for a second major
airport.

**1993**

The Massachusetts Strategic Assessment Report identified that a greater
use of regional airports combined with airfield improvements at Logan
and high-speed rail service to New native to a new major airport.

**1994**

A coalition of six New England State Aviation Agencies, all of the
scheduled jet passenger service airports, and the New England Council
was formed and initiated the \"New England Regional Air Service Study.\"

**1996**

The regional coalition held a "Fly New England" workshop with airline
representatives to present the findings of this study and to outline
collaborative marketing programs.

**1998**

Phase II of the regional air service study provided updated data on air
service opportunities in the region.

**2002**

Phase I of the New England Regional Airport System Plan (NERASP) was
initiated.

**2004**

Start of Phase II of the NERAP study.

**Looking Ahead**

The last 20 years have demonstrated that the airline industry is
volatile. It shows that a regional strategy is needed; one that has both
the flexibility to accommodate the need of the airlines to operate
efficiently and an understanding of long-term market forces. New
England's regional airports have continued to evolve into a true system,
a system in which increasingly overlapping service areas and improved
ground access options are providing passengers with real options as they
make air travel decisions. It has benefited by combining an
understanding of the long term needs of passengers with an appreciation

for the financial risks in the air transportation industry and the
interaction among our airport markets. Looking ahead it is vital that,
while each airport plans its own development program, we maintain at the
same time a shared vision of how the New England Airport System can
function in a way that provides optimal air transportation services to
serve the region's future.

**This Report**

The rest of this report presents the building blocks upon which this
shared vision can be developed. These are organized around the following
questions:

-   How were the forecasts developed, what are the critical assumptions
    and how do they deal with the uncertainties of the air
    transportation marketplace?

-   What do we know about future passenger needs?

-   What are the challenges and key objectives in developing a regional
    system to respond to those needs?

More detailed information is provided in the two-page presentation of
data for each airport. Finally, all of the technical papers developed
during the course of this study have been compiled on a CD (see back
cover for ordering information).

**How about a Second Major Airport in New England?**

Typically, whenever a major airport such as Logan is facing increased
congestion and lacks the opportunity to expand, there arises the
question of building a new airport to solve the problem.

Peter Meade was the President of the New England Council in the early
nineties. The Council had studied the problems at Logan and concluded in
1989 that there was a need to begin developing a Second Major Airport in
Massachusetts. When Fort Devens was closed as an active military base
there were ongoing studies considering developing it into a major
commercial airport. Mr. Meade relates the following discussion of the
region's congressional delegation on this issue.

When I told the Senator that we would like his support for redeveloping
the base as a new major airport he looked at me and said, "Before you
came in I was meeting with a group that wanted a federal prison in order
to keep out the airport, and before that there was a group that
preferred a trucking terminal. And after I meet with you I have an
appointment with a group willing to consider a nuclear waste disposal
site to prevent an airport being developed! Now what do you think the
chances are that you can get sufficient popular support behind using the
base for an airport?"

Swallowing that dose of reality, Peter Meade began a discussion with
airport officials and the FAA about how the region could function
without a new airport. From these efforts, grew the six state consortium
of aviation agencies and

airports that launched the "Fly New England" project and this latest
study.

ln(RP) = C + CY\*ln(Y) + CPCIP\*ln(PCIP) + CPP\*ln(PP) + CLFC\*LFC +
CREC\*REC

**Building the Forecasts-**

**The Basic Logic and Assumptions**

Predicting how scheduled air services would change and how those changes
would impact the region's airport system presented a major challenge to
the study. One reason for this is that the models used needed to (a) be
sensitive to the factors influencing passenger demand and (b) produce
estimates of various trip destinations and types of passenger at
reasonable levels of detail. The need for forecasts of other activities
at the region's 11 jet passenger airports, such as scheduled cargo and
general aviation activities, presented a further challenge. However, the
primary focus of this study was scheduled passenger markets for domestic
routes, as this activity has the greatest impact on the overall
functioning of the regional airport system.

**Three Questions - Three Models**

In an effort to understand future patterns of domestic passenger
activity, the following three major questions presented themselves:

1.  What is the magnitude of air passenger travel demand between New
    England and other major destinations in the United States (the macro
    demand model)?

2.  Where in New England do passengers ultimately begin and end their
    trips (the passenger allocation model)?

3.  What would be the pattern of passenger airport selection in response
    to changes in schedules, fares and the time required to get to
    airports (the airport choice model)?

**How Many Passengers?**

To answer the first question, past travel patterns were used to create a
forecast model that compared air travel behavior in three New England
"submarkets" to 62 domestic markets around the U.S. The three submarkets
were given the names Central, North/West, and Southwest. Working with 20
years of historical value, the study team spent considerable effort to
find forecast formulas that provided both a good statistical fit and
made common sense. Statistical fit is simply looking back and measuring
how well year-to-year changes in key factors, say population and air
fares, predicted the number of passengers who flew. Common sense is then
applied to ensure that the mathematical formulas that come out of the
efforts to find a statistical fit represent our understanding of the
basic laws of markets. For example, as prices fall, consumers will
usually buy more of a product. Based upon this work, it was determined
that the three most important factors affecting increased demand for air
travel are increases in population, increases in personal income, and
decreases in airfares. (See Footnote 8) Developing separate forecast
equations for short, medium, and long distance markets further refined
the forecast. Using forecasts of population and income obtained from
www.economy.com and predictions of future airfares from a review of FAA
and industry forecasts, an overall "macro" forecast of demand was
developed that applied these three factors to each of the 62 major
domestic markets.

**Forecast Scenarios**

Every forecast reflects underlying assumptions. These are forecasts in
and of themselves of how certain market conditions will change in the
future. To address natural uncertainty in the forecasts of these market
conditions, it is common to construct "scenarios" reflecting changes in
these market conditions. By looking at the effect of variations in those
scenarios, we can get an idea how sensitive the forecasts are to changes
in underlying market conditions.

In order to identify which scenarios would be of greatest value to this
project, a two-day workshop was held with study participants - agency
staff, consultants, and peer group members. The workshop focused on
evaluating how future demand for air travel could be affected by a
variety of departures from historical trends. These departures, called
"trend-breakers," can range from geo-political issues to changes in
aircraft technology and telecommunications. After a careful analysis, it
was determined that, the bottom line impact of these large but
unpredictable events could be simulated by changes in the major drivers
of passenger demand - growth in income and changes in airfares. Based on
this, the first scenario represented a continuation of current trends in
those drivers. This is called the Base Case. In addition, two
alternative scenarios were tested: one leading to a higher forecast and
one leading to a lower one.

In the higher scenario, called the Enhanced Scenario, the per capita
income growth rate was increased from 1.6% to 2.4%. Airfares were
allowed to decline in a manner similar to the base case assumptions with
the exception of Boston and the NYC area airports, where it was assumed
that high passenger volumes and associated congestion would result in
premium pricing, driving average airfares up by 15%. In the lower
scenario, called the Depressed Scenario, the annual increase in per
capita income was lowered from the 1.6% to 0.8% and airfares were held
at current levels. This approach also

allowed us to measure the sensitivity of the forecast to these two
drivers of demand.

**Adjustments to "Passenger Forecasts"**

The method used to develop the forecasts of passenger activity between
New England and major domestic markets produced a successful result as
defined by its ability to replicate how historically passenger demand
changed in reaction to changes in

income, population, and fares. But as one member of our Peer Review
Panel is fond of saying, these methods "are like trying to drive down
the highway by using your rear view mirror." (See Footnote 9) In a
review of the initial forecasts, it was noted that the historical period
used for model calibration was coincident with a declining price of air
travel and an expansion of services. It was further determined that this
caused the model to produce average annual growth rates that exceeded
longer-term historic experience and that such growth was not sustainable
into the future period covered by this study.

Since we already had developed an enhanced scenario to help us
understand the impacts of higher-than-anticipated growth, professional
judgment was used to modify the model's base case forecast to reflect a
more reasonable growth rate of

2.3% that reduced the 2020 forecast from its original 92.8 to 75 million
passengers.

**What are the Places of Origin of the Passengers?**

To answer the second question: concerning where passengers ultimately
begin and end their trips, the study conducted simultaneous surveys of
passengers at all airports with scheduled airline service. The content
of these surveys permitted the data that was collected to be broken down
into resident vs. non-resident travelers and business vs. leisure
travelers.

An important product of the survey was a profile of passengers that,
when combined with demographic data from cities and towns throughout the
region, enabled the study to estimate passenger origins by municipality
within major markets as well as

groups of communities in more rural areas.

**Which Airports Will Passengers Use?**

Finally, the third question was addressed using the Airport Choice
model. Using the data gathered in the 2004 passenger survey, the study
created a model to predict airport choices by passengers. It simulated
the frequency of passenger choice of a given airport based upon ground
travel times, the availability of non-stop air service, and fares. This
model was then applied to estimate the volume of demand that each
regional airport would be capable of sustaining. In the process, the

model reflected consideration of the minimum market size needed to
support airline service in particular markets. The model not only
estimated the volume of passengers expected to use one of the 11
airports but also it identified the new types

of markets that a given airport might expect to be able be serve in the
future.

There is one assumption contained in the airport choice model that
deserves special mention here. The underlying mathematics used to create
the model try to use available information about fares, non-stop routes,
and travel times to airports to

explain how passengers used airports at the time of the 2004 survey.
What can't be explained by those factors is lumped into a unique airport
constant for each airport. Except for the experiments with unconstrained
forecasts of Worcester and New

Haven, this study generally held these factors constant through time. It
may require subsequent surveys to determine whether there is a need and
a basis for revising these airport factors to significantly improve our
forecasts and understanding of future passenger needs.

**Intra-regional and International Passengers, Air Cargo, and General
Aviation**

The major focus of this study was air passenger service to domestic
markets. But in order to understand the ability of the airports to
accommodate this demand it was necessary to also forecast the full range
of activities that could be expected at these airports. These are as
follows:

Intra-regional passengers include passengers traveling between cities in
New England. In this study, New York City airports were also viewed as
intra-regional trips. International travel involves both trans-oceanic
flights as well as Canadian and

Caribbean destinations. While Boston's Logan Airport remains the
dominant international airport for the region, services to these closer
markets are developing at airports throughout the New England system.
Air charter flights are common within this market.

Air cargo services have an essential role in the region's economy. Air
cargo travels as air freight forwarded in the cargo bays of scheduled
passenger flights as well as shipments in dedicated all-cargo aircraft.

General Aviation (GA) refers to non-scheduled flights. The most common
form of GA is the privately owned single-engine aircraft. However this
is a very diverse market and at larger airports, GA operations may be
dominated by twin turboprop engine, helicopter and jet aircraft.

Trend analysis was used in developing the forecasts for these additional
segments of airport activity. This approach involved the use of a
comparative analysis of past growth at each airport as a share of
national growth, along with assessments of local developments that could
have an impact on the local share of national and regional markets. In
addition, national forecasts by the FAA and industry analysts were
evaluated and used, as appropriate, to refine our estimates of growth at
each of the NERASP airports.

**Expanding Expertise Through Peer Review Panels**

The forecast models were developed with the assistance of a panel of
academic experts in aviation and market analysis. Similarly, a panel of
economists reviewed our economic forecasts. While the quality of these
forecasts remains the responsibility of the consultant team, both of
these panels made significant contributions to improving the forecasts
presented in this study. (See Footnote 10)

**Forecasts: A Sketch Not A Photograph**

Forecasts of air passenger activity should be applied to practical
contemporary issues with a considerable amount of judgment. Not only is
there significant variation in year-to-year activity but the nature of
air travel and how it fits into the lifestyles and work habits of
passengers is also constantly evolving. Therefore these estimates should
not be considered to be a sharply focused photograph with accurate
depiction of small details, but a well-studied sketch of the character
of the future, best viewed at a little distance to properly perceive the
impression it creates.

**Forecast Results**

**Overall Growth**

The New England Region experienced a total decline in passengers from
2000 to 2004 but is forecast in the Base Case Scenario to 75 million
passengers by 2020. International activity is shown to grow most quickly
by an average annual rate of 4.7% over the next decade (2010-2020).

**New England Passenger Forecast**

![](media/image2.png){width="3.6354166666666665in"
height="2.9166666666666665in"}

**Forecast Scenarios**

As explained in the Forecast Methodology, forecast scenarios were
developed to help determine how air passenger demand might change under
varying economic conditions, for example, if the economy were to grow
either more slowly or faster than expected. The economic and fare
assumptions that define the scenarios are shown in the following table.

One interesting observation that emerged from the analysis of the
scenarios concerns the sensitivity of passenger demand to changes in
future income growth. The assumption for growth in personal income in
the high and low growth scenarios was

adjusted 50 percent upward (from the Base Case) and 50 percent downward
respectively. The resulting effect on demand was not symmetrical. For
example, with an economy weaker than the base case, and all other
factors held constant, air travel is

projected to decrease by 7.5 million passengers. But a 50 percent
improvement in the economy creates a larger increase, of 15 million
passengers.

Therefore, it is important that airport facilities maintain the ability
to accommodate and quickly adjust to increases in demand in order to
support cycles of economic expansion. This requires leading rather than
reacting to passenger requirements. Investing for demand that is
supported by an airport's catchment area characteristics is different

from "build it and they will come" development. Alternately, flexibility
for rapid expansion can often be incorporated into facility designs for
a modest additional cost. Finally, the very nature of an airport system
approach provides the flexibility to offset congestion at one location
with surplus capacity in adjacent markets.

Forecast Scenarios

  ----------- --------------------- -------- ------------------------------
  Base        Population\           0.3%\    CY 2004 Fares\
              Real Personal Income  1.6%     -1.2% p.y. through 2020

  Enhanced    Population\           0.3%\    Base Fares, with 15% premium
              Real Personal Income  2.4%     at\
                                             BOS and NYC airports

  Depressed   Population\           0.3%\    CY 2004 Fares, held constant
              Real Personal Income  0.8%     
  ----------- --------------------- -------- ------------------------------

**Point of Origin of Future Demand**

After overall demand for the region was forecast, this was disaggregated
by regional point of origin, how this demand would be distributed across
the region.

Point of origin of future demand indicates the following:

-   Boston metropolitan area is forecast to retain a dominant share of
    the growth in New England passengers.

-   The two airport catchment areas closest to Boston, Providence and
    Manchester, indicate strong growth in passenger demand.

-   New Haven and Worcester both have substantial growth in their
    catchment areas yet have had difficulty sustaining service.

-   Bradley continues to have a strong market.

-   Portland's market is forecast to increase at an average annual rate
    of 3.4%, though this could be expanded by the recent introduction of
    a low fare carrier, Jet Blue, into this market.

-   Bangor and Burlington's catchment areas are forecast to grow by 3.6%
    and 3.8% respectively, which are both higher than the overall
    regional growth rate of 3.5%

**Catchment Area Forecasts**

![](media/image3.png){width="5.997222222222222in"
height="2.2291666666666665in"}

\*Note: BOS-Boston, PVD-Providence, BDL-Bradley, MHT-Manchester, NVN-New
Haven, PWM-Portland, ORH-Worcester, BTV-Burlington, BGR-Bangor,
BED-Bedford, PSM-Portsmouth.

**Airport Forecasts**

Based on the geographical distribution of ground origins of the region's
passenger demand as previously discussed, an airport choice model was
developed to determine how that pattern of demand would be distributed
among the region's airports. This yielded two useful findings: (1)
forecasts of passenger activity at each airport, and (2) an indication
of the level of success of each airport in serving its catchment area
demand (or, stated another way, preventing the phenomenon known as
"leakage." the following article).

The table below displays the forecast results for each of the airports
and for each of the scenarios. In viewing this table, you will recall
that, as discussed earlier in Forecast Methodology, the forecast figures
in the table reflect passenger choice behavior as they are collectively
influenced by fares, service, and distance, as reported in the

2004 survey.

**Forecast Airport Passengers -- 2020 -- Depressed, Base, and Enhanced
Scenarios**

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  **Airport**   **Actual\    **Depressed**   **2020       **Enhanced**   **Average     **Average   **Average
                FY 04**                      Base**                      Annual Growth Annual      Annual
                                                                         Depressed**   Growth      Growth
                                                                                       Base**      Enhanced**
  ------------- ------------ --------------- ------------ -------------- ------------- ----------- ------------
  BOS           24,477,000   38,302,000      42,437,000   49,578,000     2.8%          3.4%        4.4%

  BDL           6,472,000    9,655,000       10,284,000   12,430,000     2.5%          2.9%        4.0%

  PVD           5,253,000    8,551,000       9,057,000    11,195,000     3.0%          3.4%        4.7%

  MHT           3,783,000    6,317,000       7,123,000    9,221,000      3.2%          3.9%        5.5%

  PWM           1,265,000    2,089,000       2,347,000    2,781,000      3.1%          3.8%        4.9%

  BTV           1,169,000    1,989,000       2,148,000    2,523,000      3.3%          3.8%        4.8%

  BGR           445,000      776,000         833,000      971,000        3.4%          3.9%        4.8%

  HVN           43,000       629,000         962,000      1,113,000      17.7%         20.7%       21.8%

  ORH                                        284,000      536,000                                  

  BED           26,000       37,000          451,000      790,000        2.2%          18.9%       23.0%

  Total         42,933,000   68,345,000      76,026,000   91,138,000     2.9%          3.5%        4.7%
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results for Portsmouth were not shown since it was determined that
within the planning horizon of this study, Portsmouth is expected to be
limited to a role of developing complementary niche airline services.
While the development of those services is difficult to forecast, they
have been shown to yield important system benefits, such as providing an
alternate location for ramp overnight parking of aircraft, especially
for air charter flights. The Portsmouth airport is analyzing the results
of this study in hope that such opportunities can be more readily
identified in the future. Portsmouth may also be a very suitable airport
for air charters or other operators considering use of the new Airbus
A380 aircraft.

**Forecast Leakage Rates**

In the Overview article, it was stated that an objective of regional
airport planning in New England has been to improve customer service by
providing convenient access to competitively priced airline services.
One way to measure the performance of the system is to examine leakage
rates, the number of passengers leaving an airport\'s catchment area to
use an alternate airport because they are willing to travel a greater
distance to get better fares, more convenient schedules or other
tangible advantages.

The model results for the forecast base case and 2004 leakage rates are
shown in the chart below. Note that in this case lowered numbers
represent improvements. As can be expected, Boston has the lowest
leakage rate because of its extensive schedule of services. What would
be less expected is that Burlington, VT has the second lowest leakage
rate. This can be explained by the remoteness of this market from
alternative airports.

Also of interest is the finding that the forecasts predict only modest
reduction in the leakage rates for Manchester and Providence over the
forecast period. By contrast, from 1996-2004 these airports, along with
Worcester increased their share of the Boston Area System from 12
percent to 28 percent.

Generally this chart demonstrates that, to the extent the models are
correct, the emphasis through this planning period will be placed on
developing the services necessary to keep pace with growth in each
catchment area rather than to accommodate any

drastic shifts in airport usage patterns.

It is important to note the caveat used, "if the models are correct."
The two major requirements of an airport choice model are:

1.  a large amount of data, and

2.  a set of well-crafted assumptions.

Data, of course, is very expensive and it is often difficult to
determine the extent to which passenger survey responses reflect their
perceptions about their choices versus the facts. The degree to which
passenger behavior can't be explained by schedules, fares, and access
times are accounted for through an "airport constant." This essentially
is a bias factor, which is fine except we don't know very much about how
stable these are over time. More than likely they will change as
passengers learn more about their choices and experiences using
alternate airports. Yet our current forecasts hold them constant through
2020. Accordingly, it is recommended that the 2004 passenger survey be
repeated periodically in order to continue to refine our understanding
of shifts in passenger preferences and how airport choice behavior will
be influenced by these changes.

**Airport Catchment Area Leakage Rate -- Bose Case Forecasts**

![](media/image4.png){width="5.666666666666667in" height="2.1875in"}

**Comparison of Base Case to Unconstrained Forecasts**

![](media/image5.png){width="3.3333333333333335in"
height="3.1354166666666665in"}

**Unconstrained Forecasts for New Haven and Worcester**

At the time of this study there was very little service at the New Haven
and Worcester airports. In the original base case, forecast services for
these two airports were built up gradually over time. In an experiment
designed to examine the nature of their role in the regional system, the
study allowed activity levels allocated to these airports to grow in a
way that was not constrained by airport capacity (i.e., the physical
ability of its facilities to handle traffic). To accomplish this, a more
ambitious service schedule similar to that of Manchester and Portland
was used to determine the degree to which higher level of services would
attract passengers.

In addition, Worcester ground access times in the model were reduced to
reflect improvements that were considered plausible in terms of actual
projects. An adjustment was also made in the "airport constants" for
these airports, as discussed above, to reflect those observed for
Manchester and Portland. The results show that New Haven could
potentially support 2.3 million passengers annually compared to 1
million in the base case and Worcester could potentially support 1.5
million compared to 0.3 million in the base case. In this experiment,
leakage to the congested New York City and Logan airports is reduced by
approximately 900,000 passengers.

**Air Cargo**

Air cargo, another important service provided by NERASP Airports most of
the NERASP airports, was included in this study in order to address two
critical questions:

1.  Does the regional airport system have the ability to provide the air
    cargo service the region requires?

2.  Will air cargo activity create any problems with development of
    these airports for scheduled passenger requirements?

The domestic cargo projections reflect:

-   The projected moderate growth in the overall New England economy in
    comparison to other regions in North America.

-   Increased truck substitution, particularly in the densely developed
    areas of New England and the adjacent regions in North America.

-   A slight decline in cargo growth after 2010, reflecting more
    moderate economic growth in New England during the further years of
    the forecast period.

The international cargo projections reflect:

-   A gradual economic recovery nationally and internationally, spurring
    increased global trade and more direct routes between New England
    and overseas markets.

-   The projected moderate growth in the overall New England economy in
    comparison to other regions in North America.

-   International cargo tonnage growth will be moderated by the
    continued substitution of ocean-borne cargo movements.

-   Less leakage of international cargo from the New England region to
    John F. Kennedy International Airport.

-   A slight decline in cargo growth after 2010, reflecting more
    moderate economic growth in New England during the out-years.

**Airport-Specific Cargo Forecasts**

An analysis was performed, using knowledge of both the strength of the
market and the capacity of facilities at each airport. That analysis
resulted in the following airport specific forecasts.

**Projected Annual Growth Rates for Air Cargo NERASP Airports**

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  **Airport**             **2005-2010**           **2010-2025**

  Logan                   3.0%                    3.0%

  T.F. Green              3.0%                    2.5%

  Portsmouth              0.0%                    \*

  Portland                4.0%                    4.0%

  Burlington              3.0%                    3.0%

  Manchester              6.0%                    5.5%

  Tweed-New Haven         0.0%                    0.0%

  Bradley                 6.0%                    5.5%

  Worcester               0.0%                    0.0%

  Bangor                  1.0%                    1.0%
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

\* Note: New air cargo service potentially starts at airport if space
becomes constrained at Manchester

**New England Cargo Base Forecast Growth Rate Annual Projections (in
tons)**

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  **Year**                **Domestic Cargo        **International Cargo
                          Growth**                Growth**

  2005-2010               3.0%                    3.5%

  2010-2025               2.5%                    3.0%
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

**General Aviation**

General aviation (GA) includes all aircraft not operating as scheduled
service or military operations. Its most common form is the single
engine piston aircraft owned by an individual or club and used primarily
for recreational transportation. Typically, as passenger airports
develop more scheduled activity, these smaller aircraft will tend to
find operating in a scheduled air carrier environment less convenient
and more expensive. It is expected that they will consequently be
motivated to find adequate facilities at nearby airports, specializing
in general aviation services, to which they can relocate. That is the
reason for the negative GA growth rates at many of the regional airports
with high passenger growth rates. This suggests that maintaining and
improving the region's general aviation airports system is an important
complementary effort for supporting the air carrier airports.

\* Note: New air cargo service potentially starts at airport if space
becomes constrained at Manchester

A less common, but thriving, expression of GA is the corporation-owned
aircraft whose operation is geared to business needs. Several recent
developments are transforming the corporate aviation sector,
developments that will have growing importance for air passenger
transportation. These include the following:

-   Changes in aircraft technology,

-   New ways to reduce the cost of ownership (e.g., fractional
    ownership), and

-   The reduced convenience in scheduled airline services.

Some premium travelers are now viewing point-to-point/on-demand service
as a better value. One company at Hanscom Airport, Linear Air, has
received much attention for its aggressive ordering of micro-jets. These
planes would be used to develop

air charter services that would operate on-demand. While these services
are unlikely to produce a major change in the total number of scheduled
passengers, it is possible that they will compete for a portion of the
premium fare passenger market. And while their impact on total
passengers will be small, they could create a significant increase in
aircraft operations in the airspace currently dominated by large
transport jets. Their growth will initially be limited by the production
capacity of manufacturers of these aircraft, though market forces could
cause this to increase substantially in the future. However, since much
speculation remains as to the cost structure of this business model,
market acceptance, and operational issues, it was determined for the
purposes of this study to be premature to estimate the full impact of
these developments.

Though this study only examined GA activity at the eleven airports at
which scheduled passenger jet service is provided, it should be evident
from the foregoing discussion that the general aviation airports
throughout the region will play an increasingly important role in
enhancing the overall performance of the New England aviation system.

**Ground Access Forecasts**

As noted earlier, the airport choice Base Case forecast provided a
wealth of information about the ground trips required to gain access to
air travel. The NERASP study used this information to identify clusters
of passenger demand of sufficient magnitude to support markedly improved
public ground transportation service options. The following discussion
presents the major findings of this analysis.

**Airport Express Bus Service:**

Airport Express Bus refers to dedicated express buses generally
operating between suburban parking lots and an airport. To be
successful, services of this type ordinarily require attractive schedule
frequency (typically every half-hour) and extensive schedule hours.
Baggage is stored under the passenger compartment and retrieved for the
passenger at the terminal door. It therefore offers a level of
convenience that is perceived by many travelers as being competitive
with automobile travel to airports.

Findings of the study are as follows:

-   By 2020, Boston Logan could possibly support at least two additional
    routes to the northwest and southwest.

-   Bradley Airport has significant passenger volumes to its southwest
    (I-84) and to the south (I-91) that offer the potential for new
    express bus service from one of these two corridors.

-   The largest corridor used by passengers for Manchester has a
    forecast volume of 0.8 million annual passengers which is below the
    minimum threshold of 1.2 million annual passengers needed to support
    unsubsidized service.

-   No other markets appear feasible through this forecast.

**Express Bus Market, 2020**

**Logan International Airport**

![](media/image6.png){width="2.6659722222222224in" height="3.5in"}

**Express Bus Market, 2020**

**Bradley International Airport**

![](media/image7.png){width="2.6444444444444444in"
height="3.5520833333333335in"}

**Airport Shared Ride Service**

This service is provided by vans offering door-to-door service within a
targeted market area with two to five million annual passenger trips.
The study indicates that new opportunities for this service are emerging
in: Boston Logan International Airport's market:

-   Cambridge/Somerville/

-   Arlington/Belmont, and

-   Newton/Brookline/Watertown

Providence's T.F. Green's market:

-   Providence/Cranston/Warwick/Pawtucket

The analyses described in this article have focused upon identifying
viable markets in which investments in proven models of public
transportation services could be successful, based upon forecast
patterns of passenger trips to airports. Since the success of these
alternative modes relies upon providing a better combination of price
and convenience than private cars, it is conceivable that they could
also be designed to help airports reduce leakage from their catchment
areas. This could be a productive area to explore in any subsequent
studies. On the other hand, based upon current research, public
transportation services beyond these identified markets will be very
risky for any substantial public investment.

**Shared Ride Market, 2020**

**Logan International Airport**

![](media/image8.png){width="2.2708333333333335in"
height="3.0618055555555554in"}

**Shared Ride Market, 2020**

**T.F. Green Airport**

![](media/image9.png){width="2.332638888888889in"
height="3.123611111111111in"}

**Challenges for the Region's System of Scheduled Passenger Jet
Services**

Introduction. As we reflect on the results of the forecasts, as
presented in the preceding article, the following questions arise: What
have we learned about the main air transportation issues that lie ahead
for the New England region and how might they best be approached? In
this article we address these questions, drawing on the primary themes
of the NERASP study: a strong commitment to developing a New England
regional aviation strategy and a focus throughout on acquiring - and
applying - an understanding of the long-term interactions involved in
regional aviation systems development. These interactions involve
consideration of passenger needs, observed travel behavior, how the air
carriers respond to market signals, and the lead-time required to
accomplish development of major airport facility projects. From all of
these considerations we have distilled a set of strategic objectives and
associated issues to be pursued.

Looking ahead - potential trend breakers. As shown in the previous
article, "Understanding Regional Airport System Dynamics" the
development of the regional system has been greatly determined by the
continuing evolution and innovation in airline competitive strategies,
in response to large-scale forces arising from our economy, society, and
aviation technology. In order to develop a strategy that can cope with
the risks and uncertainties behind these forecasts, it is useful to
speculate about new events that could create major shifts in current
trends in air transportation. (See Footnote 11) These include: the price
of flying, societal and global issues, advances in aviation technology,
and changes in airline business models. These are discussed on the next
page.

The price of flying has until recently been in a long-term decline.
Reasons for this include improved aircraft technology, airline business
practices, and economies of scale associated with a rapidly expanding
market. While these forces are predicted to continue to bring reductions
in airline yields (fares charged per seat mile), several near-term
developments could reverse this trend:

-   There is an ongoing discussion of the need to re-structure the user
    fee system as part of the upcoming Re-authorization of the Federal
    Aviation Trust Fund. This could create changes in airlines service
    and pricing strategies as well several components of general
    aviation activity.

-   The volatility of and current high cost of jet fuel has already
    altered airlines' decisions on fares and services, especially on
    longer routes.

-   Environmental fees, such as taxes on air quality emissions or the
    need to purchase emission reduction credits could have dramatic
    financial implications for air carriers.

Social and global issues can have a major impact in a variety of ways:

-   Pandemic outbreaks could significantly dampen passenger activity,
    perhaps producing severe financial hardship within the airline
    industry. Growth in terrorism could also lead to dramatic drops in
    passenger activity.

-   Globalization, especially involving the more populous
    under-developed nations, could expand international travel with New
    England.

-   Immigration patterns may eventually lead to greater air travel
    demand to new overseas markets.

-   The retirement of the baby boomer generation may expand air travel
    markets. This would include leisure travel and travel generated by a
    growing trend to retire in countries with a lower cost of living.

Advances in aviation technology usually produce new opportunities for
expansion of air travel services. These could include:

-   The reliability and safety of air travel can be enhanced through
    improvements in navigation and surveillance technology, especially
    by exploiting satellite-based systems and in-cockpit avionics.

-   "Micro-jet" technology and other breakthroughs in small aircraft
    technology may expand the market for point-to-point, on-demand
    flying. This could erode the ability of scheduled airlines to sell
    premium fares for first class passengers. It could also require
    significant enhancements to the air traffic system to expand
    airspace capacity.

Changes in airline business models to pursue greater efficiencies could
include:

-   Reductions in operational overhead through greater use of common
    vendors for terminal services, including ticket processing, baggage
    handling, and ramp services. This business model would make it
    easier for airlines to enter smaller markets.

-   Expanded use of information technology for "e-ticketing,"
    reservations, dynamic pricing to achieve higher load factors,
    re-routing passengers from cancelled flights, integrating
    reservations for ground transportation services, remote check-in,
    etc.

**Specific challenges to New England's regional airport system.**

The results of the forecasts, along with our growing understanding of
the dynamics of the airport system, suggest a variety of challenges to
be addressed in order to secure high quality air transportation across
New England. These challenges are described below under headings that
represent the objectives for addressing them.

Provide airline services close to centers of passenger demand. The
forecasts from the airport choice model identify where services can be
enhanced to reduce "leakage" from airport catchment areas.

-   Even with continuing expansion of regional airport services, the
    majority of New England passengers will fly through Boston Logan
    International Airport. Maintaining reliable and efficient airline
    services at Logan will be critical to how well the system meets the
    region's needs for air transportation.

-   New Haven has the largest under-served passenger base. Improving
    service there could reduce the number of travelers on congested
    highway corridors. Complicating decisions in that direction is the
    fact that New Haven has the region's most challenging site problems
    for airfield and landside facilities.

-   Worcester's catchment area is comparable to Portland's, yet it has
    lost service due to general financial problems of the airlines and
    direct competition from adjacent catchment areas, primarily
    Providence and Logan. Where New Haven is constrained by facilities,
    Worcester is constrained by airline industry practices. The forecast
    models demonstrate that removing airline reluctance to duplicate
    services could support viable service for almost 1.5 million
    passengers by 2020.

-   Southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod have a large base of passengers
    traveling on domestic routes outside of New England. Further
    analysis can determine the most beneficial way to meet the needs of
    the growing population and diversifying economy of that area.

-   East Asia and India are emerging as key global markets for New
    England services and are becoming competitive in the areas of new
    technology research and development. Development of convenient
    non-stop service to those destinations is a current priority for
    Logan. This means that the airport must provide a level of service
    that is competitive with other U.S. international gateway airports.
    While delays at Logan have declined with the loss of traffic since
    2001, this airport is now positioned to grow and will be vulnerable
    to significant delay problems in IFR weather. (See Footnote 12)

-   To support the economic activities of Providence and Manchester,
    there is a need to develop facilities to support non-stop flights
    from those cities to the west coast. Airlines have been reluctant to
    use Manchester\'s longer runways to accomplish this if they cannot
    match the service at Providence.

**Enhance the reliability of scheduled airline service for all airports
in New England.**

While periodic delays are tolerable, especially when traveling
significant distances, lengthy delays and cancellations can be extremely
costly to passengers. If service due to congestion at Logan erodes to
the point where passengers frequently experience missed connections or
delays, then the "true cost" of air travel from New England may become
too high to sustain the region's competitiveness. Likewise, the ability
of smaller airports to support low-weather minimum operations is
essential in order to maintain airline services.

This was borne out by the experience of airlines operating out of
Worcester in the 1980s when the inability to land and depart in low
ceilings and visibility led to frequent schedule

disruptions. Although significant investments have been made to reduce
this problem,

a perception remains among a segment of airlines and passengers that the
airport is unreliable. To achieve and maintain a reputation of reliable
service despite severe weather patterns New England airports must:

-   Assess the capability of Boston Logan's airside and landside
    facilities in light of these forecasts as well as changes in
    aircraft fleet mix and airline service strategies.

-   Support implementation across the system of next generation (NexGen)
    navigation and surveillance technology systems currently being
    developed by FAA.

-   Minimize leakage into Logan from the catchment areas of Providence,
    Manchester, Worcester, and Portland.

-   Support continued growth of service at Bangor and Burlington
    Airports since this is their reliance on Boston for connecting
    flights.

-   Support proper application of dynamic, peak-period management
    programs when proposed schedules exceed VFR capability as currently
    adopted by Logan.

**Secure the stability of regional airports.**

-   Encourage a diversity of airlines at all airports in order to
    minimize risks associated with heavy reliance upon the fortunes of a
    single airline.

-   In weaker markets, identify ways to reduce risks for new entrants
    and provide incentives for maintaining service over the long term.

-   In order to secure and maintain services at smaller rural markets,
    assure that such airports have facilities that allow airlines to
    operate efficiently and with reasonable user fees.

Develop "niche" market airports (e.g.,) Bedford and Portsmouth) to
enhance system performance and resiliency. These airports have
facilities that offer opportunities to enhance passenger services in
specialized areas. If these facilities became unavailable for any
reason, it would be almost impossible in the future to develop runways
with the same proximity to the Boston market. It is therefore essential
to the long-term interests of the entire system to preserve these
runways. Portsmouth will soon be investigating its potential to
accommodate the new family of very large transport jets. It has
previously hosted charter flights and this is one of several niches that
will be examined in the future.

Improve the relationship of the New England system to adjacent airport
markets such as Albany, White Plains, and Newburgh. It is important that
investment decisions for New England airports that compete with these
New York airports are aware of developments that could impact future
passenger levels and revenue forecasts. Likewise it may be relevant to
environmental and investment decisions at these New York airports to
understand the system benefits they could provide to New England
passengers.

**Improve ground access to the New England airports.**

The portion of air travel that occurs within an aircraft's cabin is
obviously only one component of the trip from the passenger's point of
view. Increasingly, the ease of getting to the door of the airport
terminal and the cost of parking or alternative transportation services
may be just as influential in planning the trip as the price of the
ticket and flight times.

-   Airport ground access times have recently changed for Boston with
    the Third Harbor tunnel dramatically reducing travel times to
    downtown Boston and communities served by the Massachusetts
    Turnpike. (See Footnote 13)

-   There is a planned new access road to Manchester from Route 3 that
    will significantly reduce access to communities southwest of
    Manchester.

-   The City of Worcester is working with its regional planning agency
    to address the need to improve access to Worcester Airport as part
    of a project to improve east-west transportation for this area. The
    NERASP airport choice model indicates that, in the Base Case
    forecast, improvements equivalent to a ten-minute reduction in
    access time from I-290 could increase Worcester Airport passengers
    by 110,000, or 39 percent.

-   T.F. Green Airport has commenced the development of an Airport Rail
    Station with an associated parking garage. But in order to be of
    value to airport passengers, rail service must provide sufficient
    frequency and hours of service for air traveler requirements.

-   New models of ground access services should be explored for their
    ability to improve the ability of regional airports to increase
    their share of passengers.

-   Integrating express bus service to Logan and Providence at the Route
    128 Railroad Station would offer passengers a variety of appealing
    itinerary options that could include combining airports or even
    modes.

-   Use of information technology and other technology could help
    optimize coordination of door-to-door services to improve their
    efficiency.

-   Manchester is experimenting with free bus service to the Woburn
    transportation center and a mass transit station in Somerville.

**Improve the environmental review process.**

Airports are obviously a conspicuous component of a community's
landscape. In addition to the travel benefits they create, they can also
generate off-site impacts such as traffic, noise, and air quality.
Conflicts arising from the proximity of airports to communities has in
the past given rise to complex and lengthy environmental review
processes. This has occurred even when off-site impacts are relatively
modest. Sometimes environmental reviews are so lengthy that the original
impacts under investigation are reduced by virtue of the inevitable
advances in aviation technology and operating practices. This can affect
the original objectives concerning purpose and need as well as the
accuracy of projected impacts under conditions of altered fleet mix and
activity levels.

**Emerging Market**

By 2020, the Cape Cod market will have grown to almost two million
flying to destinations beyond New England and the NYC area. This
reflects the Cape's evolution from primarily a seasonal
vacation/retirement community to a more balanced year-round economy.
Because the closest airport for long trips is Logan, most of these
passengers will be driving along the congested Route 3 corridor or
traveling west to Providence.

The primary airport serving Cape Cod is Barnstable Municipal Airport
with intra-regional service to the islands, Boston, and the NYC area.
Its longest runway is 5,425 feet, and its expansion is constrained by
major arterial roads, substantial development, and natural resources. It
has never been evaluated for providing services beyond the Boston and
New York City markets.

In order to address these concerns there is a need to:

-   Build acceptance for the regional airport strategy to enhance the
    capacity of each airport to provide reliable and efficient airport
    services for its market area.

-   Develop - and communicate - an understanding of purpose and need
    focused on long-term public interest versus a specific airline's
    immediate needs.

-   Apply the principles of FAA's guidance for streamlining through
    early integration of the environmental review process in planning.

-   Use scenario forecasts or principles of risk analysis to provide
    forecasts of impacts that cover the range of uncertainty involved in
    predicting levels and types of aviation activity.

**Alternative modes to air travel.**

This study team reviewed current analysis of AMTRAK service conducted by
the Volpe National Transportation System Center. It was determined that
high-speed rail is a valuable complement to the region's air service
system. Each mode offers advantages that depend on the details of the
journey and the needs of the traveler. At the same time, future
enhancements to high speed rail service appear less likely to impact
airport facility planning than air carrier decisions concerning
schedules, fares and aircraft size. Improved ground access between
Manhattan and the New York City airports may also reduce the relative
advantage of rail for city center to city center trips.

**There's always something new!**

One of the exciting aspects of being involved in air transportation is
that it is constantly changing. Therefore, while the strategies
discussed in this document are based upon a 2020 forecast, the most
reliable prediction is that these strategies must evolve and adapt to
the ever-changing nature of passenger needs, airline innovations, and
our improved understanding of their interactive relationships. This will
require ongoing review of market conditions as well as updates to this
plan based upon the variety of setbacks and new opportunities that are
bound to present themselves through the future. Given what this
coalition has accomplished in the past ten years, continuing this
collaboration through the next decade promises to be a very rewarding
investment of effort for securing the region's air transportation needs.

While the system can continue to serve this area from Boston and
Providence, the size of this market means that there is also an
opportunity to improve air transportation services for the needs of the
industries and population on the Cape. Over the long term it also
represents another opportunity to reduce congestion going into Boston.
Identifying the variety of alternatives to accomplish this and how they
would relate to ongoing growth management planning for the future of
Cape Cod could be a very timely and valuable initiative.

**Bangor International Airport**

Bangor International Airport (BGR) is a public use airport located three
miles west of the City of Bangor in Penobscot County, Maine.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Short/Medium Haul Connection Hubs

-   Short Haul High Density

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Terminal study

-   Construction of access road

-   Design of parking structure

-   Stormwater plan update

**Historical Total Passenger Levels**

  -------------------------------- --------------------------------------
  **Year**                         **Passengers**

  2005                             480,605

  2004                             453,301

  2003                             408,264

  2002                             408,546

  2001                             369,607

  2000                             382,565
  -------------------------------- --------------------------------------

**BGR Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image10.png){width="3.082638888888889in" height="3.46875in"}

 = 500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   2,079 acres

-   Runway 15-33: 11,439' long

-   8 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 5 airlines

-   7 non-stop destinations

**Catchments Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image11.png){width="4.834027777777778in"
height="3.1458333333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image12.png){width="4.749305555555556in"
height="3.1777777777777776in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Bangor has served in a niche role as a refueling stop for flights to
Florida and other domestic markets as well as for clearing customs for
international flights. Bangor also plays an important role in providing
access to tourists visiting the state, providing air service to
northeastern and central Maine.

**Current Concerns**

Bangor International Airport must position itself to meet the challenges
presented by restructured airline fleets, new airline business aviation,
in addition to increased regulatory requirements and increasing energy
costs.

**Outlook**

Bangor International Airport has tremendous resources in its extensive
infrastructure, available land and highly qualified personnel. These
factors combine to make Bangor International Airport an attractive place
to conduct business. The airport will also continue to seek out niche
opportunities and businesses that complement its existing services.

**Boston Logan International Airport**

Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) is a public use airport located
in the East Boston neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Small Transcontinental

-   Medium Haul Regional Jet

-   International

**Future Capital Improvement**

-   Commuter runway under construction

-   Centerfield taxiway improvements

**Historical Total Passenger Levels**

  ------------------------------ ----------------------------------------
  **Year**                       **Passengers**

  2005                           27,087,905

  2004                           26,142,516

  2003                           22,791,169

  2002                           22,696,141

  2001                           24,474,930

  2000                           27,726,8333
  ------------------------------ ----------------------------------------

**BOS Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image13.png){width="4.209027777777778in" height="4.75in"}

**** = 1,000 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   2,400 acres

-   Runway 15R-33L: 10,083' long

-   Runway 4R-22L: 10,005' long

-   Runway 9-27: 7,000' long

-   Runway 15L-33R: 2,557' long

-   102 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 45 airlines (16 foreign)

-   76 non-stop destinations (33 int'l)

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image14.png){width="5.489583333333333in"
height="3.6145833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image15.png){width="5.5in" height="3.6666666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Logan will continue to serve as the premier commercial airport for New
England. Its most critical role is providing an efficient connection
between New England and the global economy. It will continue to dominate
consumer choice for long distance markets as well as the high frequency
shuttle and Northeast Corridor markets (particularly NYC and Washington,
D.C.). And Logan will provide the essential link between the national
air transportation system and New England destinations, such as Cape Cod
and the Islands and some of the region's rural areas. Logan service to
northeast corridor markets will be complemented, by continued
improvements to high speed rail service to those markets.

**Current Concerns**

Logan lost considerable passenger activity and airline services
following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. It haws since
developed a competitive low fare structure that has helped rebuild its
passenger volumes. However, it lacks non-stop service to certain key
Asian destinations, now a high priority for Massport.

As Logan continues its transition to an almost all-jet fleet, airfield
arrival and departure capacity will be reduced somewhat. In terms of
effective passenger capacity, this will, to some extent, be offset by
growth in cabin size (seats/operation).

**Outlook**

Logan should continue to pursue new air traffic control technology to
improve efficiency, especially during adverse weather conditions. As
demand for air travel increases, Logan and the regional airports must
continue to expand service opportunities. It is especially important
that Logan provide for international service demand.

**Bradley International Airport**

Bradley International Airport (BDL) is a public use airport located
thirteen miles north of Hartford, the capitol of Connecticut, and just
sound of Springfield, Massachusetts.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Large Transcon

-   Medium Haul RJ

-   Long Haul Connection Hubs

-   Short Haul RJ

-   Florida Markets

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Relocation of taxi and hold line for RW 1

-   Rehabilitiation of portions of TW E and T

-   RW 33 Precisions Approach Path Indicator Installation

-   Phasing study for terminal expansion

-   Master Plan Update

-   Purchase of nosie monitoring equipment

-   Implementation of noise plan

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ----------------------------------- -----------------------------------
  **Year**                            **Passengers**

  2005                                7,381,372

  2004                                6,737,048

  2003                                6,261,807

  2002                                6,525,215

  2001                                6,888,031

  2000                                7,338,744
  ----------------------------------- -----------------------------------

**BDL Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image16.png){width="3.573611111111111in"
height="4.000694444444444in"}

 = 1,000 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   2,616 acres

-   Runway 6-24: 9,502' long

-   Runway 15-33: 6,846' long

-   Runway 1-19: 5,141' long

-   30 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 13 airlines

-   36 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image17.png){width="5.5in" height="3.6041666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image18.png){width="5.520833333333333in"
height="3.6666666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Bradley will continue to hold its position as the second largest airport
in New England, expeceted to reach a voum of 10 million passengers by
2020. Bradley's current service market supports long haul flights to the
West Coast including Los Angeles, Salt Lake City and Las Vegas on a
dailyl basis. Aggressive route development strategies are in place to
address the growing need for non-stop trans-Atlantic service and
additional West Coast service.

Currently, over 30 percent of Bradly passengers originate from the New
Haven catchment area with 12 percent fromt eh catchment areas of
Worcester, Providence and elsewhere in New England. Fairfield County, in
the southern end of the state, continues to show increased patron usage.

**Current Concern**

Airport access may develop as an issue depending upon how certain local
highway conditions are addressed.

**Outlook**

Bradley is well positioned to continue its development to serve the
needs of the second largest market in New England.

**Burlington International Airport**

Burlington International Airport (BTV) is a public use airport located
three miles east of Burlington, Vermone, within the City of South
Burlington, Vermont.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Short/Medium Haul Connections Hubs

-   Florida Markets

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   New aprons and taxiways on south end

-   Possible extension of TW G

-   North air carrier parkign apron expansion

-   Norht terminal expansion

-   Noise exposure map update

-   Glycol collection and treatment system

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------
  **Year**                     **Passengers**

  2005                         1,371,534

  2004                         1,266,999

  2003                         1,097,174

  2002                         1,099,100

  2001                         1,035,238

  2000                         904,582
  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------

**BTV Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image19.png){width="4.311805555555556in"
height="4.876388888888889in"}

 = 500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   942 acres

-   Runway 15-33: 8.320' long

-   Runway 1-19: 3,611' long

-   10 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 6 airlines

-   13 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image20.png){width="5.520833333333333in"
height="3.6145833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image15.png){width="5.5in" height="3.6666666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

With little competition from other system aiports, Burlington's role has
been the provision of service to a comparatively large and fairly remote
northwest New England catchment area.

**Current Concerns**

Because of Burlington's remoteness from other airports, the catchment
area that it serves is very dependent upon this airport to provide for
their air transportation needs.

Local planning and investment is needed to ensure that facilities
provide carriers with both the flexibility, reliability, and efficiency
that is needed to retain current service and to foster the continued
development of appropriate services.

**Outlook**

The introduction of service by a low fare carrier has been very
successful. Growth that is associated with this will allow access to
additional national hubs as well as direct flights to more Florida
markets.

**L.G. Hansom Field**

L.G. Hanscom Field (BED) is a public use airport located in Bedford,
Massachusetts, just 20 miles northwest of the City of Boston.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Short/Medium Haul Connection Hubs

-   Short Haul High Density

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Airport Layout Plan update ongoing

-   New General Aviaition facilities at Pine Hill

-   Redevelopment of Hangar 24 Site

-   Potential relocation of T-hangars

-   New General Aviation facilities at the Civil Terminal Area

-   Redevelopment of Hangar 10 site

-   Runway Safety Area Enhancements

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------
  **Year**                     **Passengers**

  2005                         17,457

  2004                         18,123

  2003                         36,099

  2002                         67,688

  2001                         134,337

  2000                         162,147
  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------

**BED Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image21.png){width="3.8854166666666665in"
height="4.395833333333333in"}

 = 500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   1,300 acres

-   Runway 11-29: 7,000' long

-   Runway 5-23: 5,106' long

-   Limited scheduled airline service

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image22.png){width="5.520833333333333in"
height="3.6354166666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image23.png){width="5.5in" height="3.6979166666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

L. G. Hanscom Field is New England's premier full-service general
aviatioin (GA) airport, functioning as a general aviation reliever for
Logan International Airport. Hanscom handles limited commercial airline
and cargo service and is an important resource for Hanscom Air Force
Base. Hansom serves the diverse flying needs of the region's high
technology corporations and educational institutions. The GA component
includes business, charter, personal aircraft, air taxi and flight
school activity. Commercial passenger service is defined as aircraft
with no more than 60 seats, per Massport's regulations.

**Current Concerns**

In recent years, Hanscom has experienced declines in all types of air
trffic except business jets. The small aircraft operators are
particularly sensitive to escalating fuel prices. Hanscom's commuter
activity has declined from 160,000 passengers in 2000 to 17,500 today.

Many Hanscom Field facilities were constructed in the 1940s and 1950s
and need to be updated. Massport continues to promote third party
development of hangar facilities and other infrastructure improvements.

**Outlook**

Hanscom will continue to be a GA reliever for Logan International
Airport, supporting a wide range of aviation needs. Its excellent
airfield and aviation services are widely recognized, and Massport must
continue to capitalize on those elements. Third party developers
continue to show interest in Hanscom, indicating a positive future.

**Manchester Boston Regional Airport**

Manchester Boston Regional Airport (MHT) is located in southeastern New
Hampshire, approximately 50 miles from Boston, Massachusetts.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Large Transcontinental

-   Medium Haul Regional Jet

-   Long Haul Connection Hubs

-   Florida Markets

-   International

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Runway Safety Area Improvement Underway

-   New Master Plan Study

-   Additional Terminal Gates

-   Airport Access Roadway Improvements

-   Future Parking Garage

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  -------------------------- --------------------------------------------
  **Year**                   **Passengers**

  2005                       4,329,478

  2004                       4,003,307

  2003                       3,601,661

  2002                       3,366,834

  2001                       3,233,555

  2000                       3,169,301
  -------------------------- --------------------------------------------

**MHT Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image24.png){width="4.4375in" height="5.000694444444444in"}

 = 1,000 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   1,500 acres

-   Runway 17-35: 9,250' long

-   Runway 6-24: 6,850' long

-   14 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 12 airlines

-   17 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image25.png){width="5.510416666666667in"
height="3.5833333333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image26.png){width="5.5in" height="3.6770833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Manchester Boston Regional Airport will continue to serve its primary
market as well as relieve passenger demand pressure on Logan from areas
to the north and west of Boston. In the recent past, new routes met with
quick success, as indicated by load factors sustained over time.

**Current Concerns**

At Manchester, a dominant low fare carrier heavily influences service
levels, in terms of schedule and fare structure. However, it is expected
that this will modearate as the market continues to develop, with entry
into the market by other carriers emplyin gthe low fare business model.

**Outlook**

With completion of the major runway extensions and related airfield
improvements, Manchesterd is wll-positioned to offer airlines an
efficient facility for responding to the needs of the fastest frowing
market area of the rgion. This includes the capability to privide
nonstop serice to the West Coast and to select North American and North
Atlantic international markets. Future planning will focus on developing
the landside and airport access facilities and services to support the
expanding requirements of its passengers.

Manchester will continue to be a valuable and necessary asset in New
England, providing needed air transportation services for its
established market while serving as a reliever to Logan as passenger
demand continues to increase in the future.

**Portland International Jetport**

Portland International Jetport (PWM) is a public use airport located two
miles west of Portland, in Cumberland County, Maine.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Large Transcontinental

-   Medium Haul Regional Jet

-   Long Haul Connections Hubs

-   Short Haul Regional Jet

-   Florida Markets

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Runway extension/overlay project for RW 18/36

-   Rebuild taxiways associated with RW 18/36

-   Parking garage expansion

-   Terminal expansion

-   Inline baggage screening

-   New general aviation area

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------
  **Year**                **Passengers**

  2005                    1,454,037

  2004                    1,365,078

  2003                    1,248,972

  2002                    1,248,362

  2001                    1,252,597

  2000                    1,342,557
  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------

**PWM Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image27.png){width="3.6777777777777776in"
height="4.124305555555556in"}

 = 500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   636 acres

-   Runway 11-29: 7,200' long

-   Runway 18-36: 5,001' long

-   11 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 6 airlines

-   11 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image28.png){width="4.918055555555555in"
height="3.1944444444444446in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image29.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.1354166666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Portland serves as an area of strong economic growth, with recent rates
of population increase that are several times as high as the state as a
whole. Recent improvements in highway access have improved its appeal to
passengers within its catchment area. Portland plays an important role
in providing access to tourists visiting the state.

**Current Concerns**

Portland has historically experienced significant leakage to Boston and,
to a lesser extent, Manchester. For example, in 2004, 41 percent of its
catchment area enplanements were attracted to Boston, as compared to the
40 percent that used Portland.

Expansion of flightts must be monitored to minimize noise impacts to
residents.

**Outlook**

Portland does not appear to face any insurmountable challenges in
meeting the needs of their communities.

The impact of leakage from Portland to Boston could potentially be
softened by the introduction of low fare carrier service to the JFK hub.

**Portsmouth International Airport**

Portsmough International Airport (PSM) is a public use airport located
in Portsmough in the southeastern part of New Hampshire, about 50 miles
north of Boston, Massachusetts.

**New Non-stop Opportunities**

-   Florida Markets

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Regional supplemental study

-   Viability study of Very Large Aircraft (VLA)

-   Roadway access and frontage drive improvements

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------
  **Year**                     **Passengers**

  2005                         13,114

  2004                         54,868

  2003                         58,706

  2002                         67,718

  2001                         72,980

  2000                         78,076
  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------

**New England Passengers**

![](media/image30.png){width="3.7916666666666665in"
height="4.248611111111111in"}

 = 2,500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   3,000 acres

-   Runway 16-34: 11,318' long

-   1 Aircraft Gate

-   Served by 2 airlines

-   2 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image31.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.0520833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image32.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.09375in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

\*\* depressed and base data not available for this airport.

**Functional Role**

Portsmough has the system's longest runway and can easily accommodate
the new Airbus A380 aircraft. It also has a twenty-four hour tower.
Index E, ARFF services, and on-site custom services.

Since its opening as a civilian base, it has provided the airline
industry with facilities for a wide variey of users. These have included
a maintenance operation for a regional commuter airline, air cargo
ooperations, air charer flights, and new entrant airlines. Its fixed
base ooperators have developed services meeting the full range of ground
handlling services for scheduled air carriers, international business
jets, and charter flights.

The airport has also enabled the Air National Guard to provide critical
support in airborne refueling of both traiing and actual military
missions.

**Current Concerns**

The proximity of the airport to major population centers to the south,
north, and west supports the potential of this airport to be an
important supplement to the regional system. On the other hand, this
restricts air service development to niche markets not served by the
existing surrounding airports.

**Outlook**

Portsmough is well positioined to provide very efficient facilties for
air charters serving the northern portion of the Boston market. It is
currently using the data from this study to further identify niche
market opportunities.

**T.F. Green Airport**

T.F. Green Airport (PVD) is a primary service airport located in
Warwick, Rhode Island, eleven miles south of Providence, in Kent County,
Rhode Island.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities**

-   Large Transcontinental

-   Medium Haul Regional Jet

-   Long Haul Connection Hubs

-   Florida Markets

-   International

**Draft Airport Master Plan Recommendations**

-   Improve Runway Safety Areas for RW 16-34

-   Extend RW 5-23

-   Improve various taxiways

-   Improve terminal security

-   Improve terminal area baggage facilties

-   Add gates to terminal (couth concourse)

-   Expand auto parking

-   Improve terminal access roadway from Post Road

-   Expand Central Utility Plant

-   Expand ARFF building

-   Construct replacement GSE building

-   Construct replacement belly cargo facility

-   Construct new integrated cargo facility

-   Improve glycol management facilities

**Historical Total Passenger Levels**

  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------
  **Year**                **Passengers**

  2005                    5,730,557

  2004                    5,509,186

  2003                    5,176,271

  2002                    5,393,574

  2001                    5,530,393

  2000                    5,430,938
  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------

**PVD Airport Usage by Ground Origin Destination, 2004**

![](media/image33.png){width="3.6145833333333335in"
height="3.872916666666667in"}

 = 1,000 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   1,111 acres

-   Runway 5-23: 7,166' long

-   Runway 16-34: 6,081' long

-   21 Aircraft Gates

-   Served by 11 airlines

-   28 non-stop destinations

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image34.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.0520833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image35.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.125in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

T.F. Green Airport will continue to serve the Rhode Island market as
well as air travelers in eastern Connecticut and southeastern
Massachusetts. In the recent past, new routes met with quick success, as
indicated by load factors sustained over time.

**Current Concerns**

To increase the service market opportunties and operating flexibility
for all carriers serving T.F. Green, and Environemntal Impact Statement
is being prepared to evaluate the impacts of a runway extension and
terminal improvements identified in the Draft Airport Master Plan.

At T.F. Green, a dominant low fare carrier heavilly influences service
levels, in terms of schedule and fare structure. However, it is expected
that this will moderate as the market continues to develop, with entry
into the market by other carriers employing the low fare business model.

**Outlook**

The Providence market is approaching the size that could support
non-stop service to the West Coast and select destinations in Canada, t
he Caribbena, and North Atlantic Europe.

T.F. Green is located at a major nexus of transportation services for
southern New England, including the aiport rail statioin now under
construction. Current environmental studies will affect the capability
of the airport to meet current and future requirements of the population
and economy of this area. If approved, planned runway extensioins and
related mitigation will requrie significant invenstments. The costs of
these projects are justified byt eh contribution this airport makes to
the functioning of the regional system.

**Tweed--New Haven Regional Airport**

Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport (HVN) is a public use airport located
in the City of New Haven and the Town of East Haven, Connecticut.

**New Non-stop Service Opportunities (When Faciltiy Improvements
Permit)**

**Within five years:**

-   Runway Safety Areas on RW 2/20

-   MALSR for RW 2

-   Relocate threshold on RW 20

-   Improved approach to RW 20

-   Centerline/Touchdown Zone lights for RW 2/20

**Within twelve years:**

-   Pave Runway Safety Areas

-   Add 600 feet to RW 2/20

-   Category II Infrastructure for RW 2

-   Approached Lighting System (ALSF-2) for RW 2

**Historical Total Passenger Levels**

  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------
  **Year**                **Passengers**

  2005                    130,861

  2004                    80,356

  2003                    33,607

  2002                    44,487

  2001                    57,614

  2000                    76,726
  ----------------------- -----------------------------------------------

**New England Passengers**

![](media/image36.png){width="3.904861111111111in"
height="4.375694444444444in"}

 = 2,500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   394 acres

-   Runway 02-20: 5,600' long

-   Runway 14-32: 3,175' long

-   4 Aircraft Gates/1 with Jetbridge

-   Served by 1 airline

-   1 non-stop destination

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image37.png){width="4.677083333333333in"
height="3.0416666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image38.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.1041666666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

**Functional Role**

Despite its catchment area of 2.8 million passengers, the fifth largest
in New England, only one percent of that catchment area used New Haven
in FY 2004, 59 percent used Bradley, 23 percent used the New York City
area airports, and 13 percent used Providence.

**Current Concerns**

Tweed is now being viewed as a vital component in a statewide system of
airports to serve the flying public: Bradley, as a medium hub
international airport for a wide region of New England, and Tweed, as a
small hub regional airport for Southern Connecticut. This vision needs
to be channeled into supoprt for implementation of the Tweed Master
Plan.

**Outlook**

By 2010, with active support of state and local governments, the Master
Plan Update Phases Once and Two will be implemented. The airport will
infuse over \$75 million annually into the regional economy.

By 2013, based on public demand for more air service, Tweed will
successfully implement Master Plan Update Phase Three. The airport will
infuse up to \$300 million annually into the regional economy.

By 2018, having successfully completed Phase Four of its Master Plan
Update, the airport will infuse up to \$750 million annually into the
regional economy.

**Worcester Regional Aiport**

Worcester Regional Airport (ORH) provides general aviation and
commercial air services tot eh Greater Worcester Area in central
Massachusetts. The airport is owned byt eh City of Worcester and
operated by teh Massachusetts Port Authority (Massport).

**New Non-stop Service Opportunties**

-   Short/Medium Haul Business and Leisure Connections

-   Florida and other niche markets

**Future Capital Improvements**

-   Ongoing airport master plan

-   Airfield pavement rehabilitation

-   Enhancement to all Runway Safety Areas

-   Potential CAT I ILS to CAT II/III upgrade

-   Construction of new Airport Rescue & Firefighting Facility

-   Construction of new airfield maintenance structure

-   New hangar and general aviation service facilities

Historical Total Passenger Levels

  ------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
  **Year**                  **Passengers**

  2005                      1,729

  2004                      787

  2003                      3,593

  2002                      66,319

  2001                      129,780

  2000                      106,142
  ------------------------- ---------------------------------------------

**New England Passengers**

![](media/image39.png){width="3.7694444444444444in"
height="4.248611111111111in"}

 = 2,500 Trip Passengers

**Airport Information**

-   1,300 acres

-   Runway 11-29: 7,000' long

-   Runway 15-33: 5,000' long

-   4 Aircraft Gates, 2 Ramp Level Gates

**Catchment Area Forecast Underlying Socioeconomics**

![](media/image40.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.0520833333333335in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

**Forecast Airport Passengers and Service Levels**

![](media/image41.png){width="4.6875in" height="3.1354166666666665in"}

Percentages represent average annual growth

\* Actual data is for year ending July 2004 and may not coincide with
annual historical passengers (calendar year) presented on preceding
page.

\*\* Actual numbers were not available. Worcester did not have scheduled
air service in 2004.

**Functional Role**

Worcester Regional Airport provides general aviation (GA) and commercial
aviation service to the Central Massachusetts Region.

**Current Concerns**

The events of September 11, 2001 significantly affected commercial air
service at the airport, resulting in a loss of airlines service by 2003.
A low cost carrier providing service to Orlando/Sanford Florida
reinstated commercial air service for a shourt period between December
2005 and August 2006. The airport continues to aggressively pursue other
commercial aviation service opportunities in the challenging post 9/11
environment. To enhance the security, safety and operational efficiency,
essential aviation infrastructure should be maintained and imporved
including the rehabilitation of aging runway and taxiway pavements,
installatioin of FAA comliant Runway Safety Areas (RSA) on Runway 11-29,
upgrade of Category I Precision Approach to Category II/III standards
and an aircraft hold apron on the Runway 11 end. Major non-aviation
projects that would benefit the airport and the region include improved
roadway access, additional signage and roadway infrastructure
improvements.

**Outlook**

The FAA/MAC funded Airport Master Plan (expected to be completed by late
2006) provides a strategic roadmap for the future development of the
airport as current and forecasted demand contues through the
tewenty-year planning period. Continued community support for the
airport, couopled with ongoing marketing strategies for additional
scheduled air service and attracting additional-based corporate
aircreaft and aviatioin related services are key to the airport's future
growth over the short and long term.

**Finally...**

This strategy for enhancing the regional airport system has many
detailed recommendations. The overall vision, though, is relatively
simple. By continuing to enhance the operation of each airport in the
system, the region can avoid the tremendous cost and community
disruption that developing a new major airport would require. The great
challenge is having a solution that is built upon the collective benefit
of comparatively smaller scale developments throughout the system. In
the face of local controversy that any of these projects may encounter,
it will be difficult to appreciate just how dependent the future of the
region's system is on each of these decisions.

Consequently, the primary purpose of this report is to disseminate the
essential facts and arguments that can foster a common vision of the
critical value of these facility investments. In turn, it is important
that this regional strategy continues to be enhanced by the experiences
of the participants in this coalition and through periodic updates to
the data and models in this study. This is the commitment required to
ensure that the region's future passenger air service system continues
to have the ability to help New England be New England.

**Acknowledgements**

**Project Sponsor**

The Massachusetts Port Authority (MPA)

Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission (MAC)

**Project Consulting Team**

The Louis Berger Group, Inc.

in association with:

-   SH&E, Inc.

-   Unisys/R2A, Inc.

-   Charles River Associates, Inc.

-   A. Strauss-Wieder, Inc.

-   Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates

-   Claire Barrett Associates

-   MarketSense

-   Planners Collaborative - Layout and Design

-   The New England Council

-   Volpe National Transportation Center

**Peer Review Team**

-   Richard DeNeufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

-   Tony Gomez-Ibanez, Harvard University

-   Steven Morrison, Northeastern University

-   Joseph Sussman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Consulting Team would like to express its appreciation to the staff
of the Federal Aviation Administration, Massachusetts Port Authority,
Mass Aeronautics Commission, the States and Airports in this project for
their assistance and support.

**Project Funding**

The preparation of this study was financed in part through a planning
grant from the Federal Aviation Administration with the local matching
share of the grant provided by the Massachusetts Port Authority.

**Study Team**

Federal Aviation Administration -- New England Region

-   Ralph Nicosia-Rusin, Bryon Rakoff, and Priscilla Scott

Massachusetts Port Authority

-   Betty Desrosiers, Craig Leiner, Stewart Dalzell, and Wes Harper

Massachusetts Aeronautics Commission

-   COL (Ret.) Robert E. Welch Jr., Denise Garcia, and Scott MacLeod

Stephen Korta, II, A.A.E., State of Connecticut

Ronald Roy, State of Maine

Jack Ferns, State of New Hampshire

Mark Brewer, A.A.E., Rhode Island Airport Corporation

Richard Turner, State of Vermont

Rebecca Hupp, A.A.E., Bangor International Airport

Barry Pallanck, Bradley International Airport

Brian Searles, Burlington International Airport

J. Brian O'Neill, Manchester•Boston Regional Airport

Kevin Dillon, A.A.E., Manchester•Boston Regional Airport

K. William Hopper, A.A.E., Portsmouth International Airport at Pease

Jeff Schultes, A.A.E., Portland International Jetport

Michael Mini, Providence-T.F. Green Airport

Vince Scarano, Providence-T.F. Green Airport

Eliot Jameson, Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

Rick Lamport, Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport

Eric Waldron, A.A.E., Worcester Regional Airport

With fond memory of consultant team member, Claire Barrett

To obtain a CD of the Study's Technical Reports, please write to the:

Federal Aviation Administration

New England Region, ANE-600

Attention: NERASP Technical Report CD Request

12 New England Executive Park

Burlington, MA 01803