Title: NSF/Tokyo Report: Japan\'s Space Budget Request for JFY 98:
Little Change For Now

Date: March 19, 1998

Replaces: None

The National Science Foundation\'s offices in Tokyo and in Paris
periodically report on developments abroad that are related to the
Foundation\'s mission. These documents present facts for the use of NSF
program managers and policy makers; they are not statements of NSF
policy.

Report Memorandum #98-04 February 19, 1998

The following report was prepared by Mr. Gilbert Kirkham, the NASA
Representative assigned to the Environment, Science, and Technology
(EST) section of the US Embassy in Tokyo. Mr. Kirkham and EST approved
the distribution of this report by the NSF Tokyo Office. For further
information, clarification or to make comments, please contact: Mr.
Kirkham at:gkirkham@hq.nasa.gov (if sending an attachment, please use
the following e-mail address instead: ustkysci@ppp.bekkoame.or.jp)

JAPAN\'S SPACE BUDGET REQUEST FOR JFY98:

LITTLE CHANGE FOR NOW

\-\-\-\-\-\--

Caveats

\-\-\-\-\-\--

This report is based mostly on documents that present an overview of the
Japanese budget obtained in Japanese from the Space Activities
Commission. Requests for the full NASDA and ISAS budgets were denied. As
Japan is currently working on legislation similar to the FOIA
legislation in the US, I expect

that greater detailed information will be more easily accessible next
year. This report is, therefore, not an exhaustive record, but rather
organizes available information into categories that NASA officials can
recognize. Another caveat is that I am not a budget analyst, therefore
the deductions that are made herein are based more on my impressions
than on specific rules of budget analysis. As a result, there will
undoubtedly be many questions and requests for clarification on some of
the entries in this report. I welcome your comments and requests.
Contact information for me is above.

\-\-\-\-\-\--

Summary

\-\-\-\-\-\--

While the government budget is just beginning to be debated in the
Japanese Diet, Japan\'s space budget growth will likely be 1.4% for
fiscal year 1998 (April 1, 1998 to March 31, 1999). The budget for the
National Space Development Agency (NASDA)will likely grow by 1.1% from
last year to \$1.368 billion. The Ministry of Education\'s Institute of
Space and AstronauticalSciences (ISAS) budget growth will be 2.2%,
bringing the ISAS budget to \$172.7 million. The Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (MITI) saw its space budget fall nearly
16% from last year to \$75 million. Given US Government predictions for
a rise in Japan\'s gross domestic product of only 0.75% for this fiscal
year (and even lower for next year) and Japan\'s commitment to fiscal
reform, it is unlikely that Japan will be able to afford large increases
in Japan\'s space budget over the next few years. While Japan will be
able to meet its Space

Station obligations, any optimism for near-term fiscal support by
Japan\'s space organizations for new US projects should be tempered by
this reality: Japan\'s space budget does not have the dough.

Coupled with Prime Minister Hashimoto\'s administrative reform proposal
to combine the Science and Technology Agency (STA) with the Ministry of
Education (MOE), there are substantial changes in store for the Japanese
space program over the next several years.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Little Surprise in Ministry of Finance Submission

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

On January 12, 1998, the Japanese Diet began its deliberations on the
Government of Japan fiscal year 1998 budget (JFY98). Overall, the
government is seeking a growth of 1.4% over last year\'s space budget to
a total of \$1.903 billion (at an exchange rate of \$1:Y130). Further
analysis shows that that Japan\'s space development budget grew at only
0.8%. The rest of the growth is in infrastructure and operations.

In terms of the ministerial breakdowns, growth in the STA budget grew
was 1.0% and in the MOE budget was 2.2% over last year\'s budget. NASDA,
which is under the auspices of STA, requested an increase of 1.5% over
last year\'s budget; the Ministry of Finance (MOF) submission to the
Diet for NASDA is an expected 1.1% increase. If approved by the Diet,
NASDA\'s budget will be \$1.368 billion. While this report focuses on
mostly on the NASDA, MOE and MITI budgets, Japan\'s overall space budget
is also divided among the National Aeronautics Laboratory (NAL), the
Police Agency, the Environmental Agency (EA), the Ministry of
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF), Ministry of Transportation
(MOT), Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT), and the Ministry
of Construction (MOC) which all have small space activities of their
own.

The following table is the breakdown of ministry and agency space
budgets. Only in Table 1 are amounts listed in millions of US dollars.
Later tables show amounts in millions of Japanese yen. The JFY98 Request
column indicates the amount requested by the ministry or agency to MOF.
The JFY98 Submit column indicates the amount that MOF submitted to the
Diet for approval. It is unlikely that the Diet will change the MOF
submit figures. One final note, the SAC budget is for administrative
activities associated with Japan\'s Space Activities Commission (SAC).

Table 1. Ministerial Breakout of Japan\'s Space Budget

Ministry JFY97 Budget JFY98 Request JFY98 Submit Percent change

/Agency(Millions US\$)(Millions US\$)(Millions US\$)(JFY98vs.JFY97)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA 1,352.9 1,373.7 1,368.3 101.1%

NAL 29.5 28.7 28.7 97.3%

SAC 7.9 7.1 7.1 89.9%

Police Agency 5.3 5.3 5.3 100.0%

EA 7.0 8.1 8.1 115.7%

MOE 169.0 174.0 172.7 102.2%

MOA 0.5 0.8 0.7 140.0%

MITI 89.0 76.9 75.0 84.3%

MOT 158.8 186.9 183.6 115.6%

MPT 43.1 42.2 41.0 95.1%

MOC 12.6 12.9 12.8 101.6%

MOJ 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0%

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total 1,876.3 1,916.6 1,903.3 101.4%

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Changing Priorities in the Future?

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

According to sources, this year is the first year that MOF has asked
NASDA to prioritize three programs scheduled for phase-up:the
Selenological Engineering Explore (SELENE) mission, Advanced Land
Observing Satellite (ALOS), and the eighth Engineering Test Satellite
(ETS-8). As late as December 1997, NASDA officials were certain that at
least one, if not more, programs would be denied phase-up funding and
would plunge into an uncertain future. However, in the end, all three
made it through the difficult MOF negotiation period and escaped
predicted cuts. Was this exercise a shot across NASDA\'s bow or an
aberration? My impression is that Japanese space officials in and out of
NASDA see cannibalization of programs as the shape of things to come for
all Japanese space organizations.

A more detailed description of SELENE, ALOS, ETS-8 and other line items
are in the following five sections: Earth Science, Human Exploration and
Development of Space (HEDS), Space Science, Aeronautics, and Satellite
Development. Unless they were new starts in JFY98, purely administrative
budget items and construction of facilities (COF) costs are not included
in the tables of this report. Also deleted have been programs whose
funding was zeroed out in this fiscal year because they are at the end
of their development cycle (like NASDA ADEOS-I and NASDA ETS-7 that
launched last year). Tables are at the end of the report.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

1\. Earth Science (Tables 2-3)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Overall Earth science funding in Japan (exclusive of launch costs) will
be around \$681.9 million. Of most immediate note, \"post-ADEOS-II\"
Phase-A funding was pegged at 25.334 million yen for JFY98. Listed as,
\"Research on follow-on environment observation technology satellite
mission,\" this money will be

used to conduct an ADEOS-III (aka \"post-ADEOS-II\") feasibility study.

NASDA will get funding for its study of a system of Earth observation
satellites, communication satellites and ground facilities for disaster
monitoring. The Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT) is also
contributing part of their budget for \"research into a
multiple-satellite based disaster management system\" (11 million yen).

NASDA is expecting to see 46 million yen of feasibility study money for
the ATMOS (Atmospheric Observation Satellite) missions, a series of
precipitation, cloud/radiation and chemistry missions. NASDA indicated
that ADEOS-III will take priority over these missions, but assuming that
ADEOS-III develops as planned, NASDA will try to launch ATMOS-A in 2003,
ATMOS-B in 2005 and ATMOS-C in 2006.

Finally, NASDA budget officials recently indicated that MTSAT
(Multipurpose Transportation Satellite) funding for JFY98 will be 3
billion yen, most of which is for rocket development. \<#1\>

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#1\>: The MTSAT is actually a Ministry of Transportation (MOT) program
run mostly out of the Aerospace Bureau with support from the
Meteorological Agency in MOT. The MOT budget for JFY98 lists money for
only a \"feasibility study\" totaling 6.8 billion yen (compared to 5.5
billion yen in JFY97).

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

In terms of cuts, NASDA is expecting a 25% cut in research on sensors
for Earth environment, weather, and ocean observation as well as
disaster surveillance (8 billion yen). They will get 6% of last year\'s
research money for forecasting and understanding Earth changes (839
million yen).

The Environment Agency (EA) and MITI are contributing to Japan\'s Earth
sciences research. EA is contributing to the development of ADEOS-II
with 1 billion yen in JFY98, an increase of 16% over last year\'s
budget.

MITI is shouldering part of the ALOS (Advanced Land Observation
Satellite) development burden with 1.4 billion yen this year as opposed
to 1.1 billion yen last year. As noted, the ALOS program received the
go-ahead to proceed with Phase-C development beginning this year. In
this program, NASDA with NEC, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation and
Toshiba are developing an optical sensor able to conduct 3-dimensional
observation and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) equipped with a
radiowav Sennsor that can function day, night and in during bad weather.
Both sensors are able to view an area 70 kilometers wide. ALOS is on
schedule for launch in 2002.

MPT\'s Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) is also adding to
Japan\'s technology in Earth observation with 37.8 million yen budgeted
for research in \"sensor observation technology\" and million yen for
research in next-generation cloud observation radar equipment. Likewise,
CRL\'s \"research in space-based weather forecasting system\" (88.9
million yen) will contribute to Japan\'s forecasting research
initiatives.

The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has budgeted a small amount of money
to cover \"fees\" for \"remote sensing data usage\" (62.5 million yen).
MOA is also budgeting a small amount of money for \"remote sensing
technology development for controlling fishing boat management\" (30
million yen). Finally, the Ministry of Construction pays a fee for the
usage of remote sensing satellites (1.6 billion yen).

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

2\. Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS)(Tables 4-6)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA commands most of the budget in the HEDS enterprise, with some help
from the National Institute on Radiological Sciences (NIRS) and
MITI.\<#2\>

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#2\> For Japan, HEDS would include life and microgravity science
research, ELV mission support, payload processing support, ISS/JEM
development, advanced projects, and engineering and technological base.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Japan\'s Space Station budget is stable despite the delay to the JEM
launches agreed to at the May 1997, Space Station Heads of Agency
meeting. This year\'s decrease in funding reflects a projected reduction
in spending as the program ramps down. It\'s worth noting, however, that
this year\'s ISS budget submission is a 1.1% increase over what
NASDA/STA were seeking from MOF in August. Program managers here agree
that it has been difficult to manage the JEM budget, but that there is
enough margin to prevent Japan from causing an overall schedule delay.

Japan is implementing new starts in space infrastructure development and
small launches. Another new start is the safety and mission assurance
role that NASDA is now responsible for with regard to the Rocket Systems
Corporation (RSC). Management of NASDA rocket launches is done by RSC.
As a new start, this year NASDA will perform safety reviews of RSC
launches. This year\'s budget will be 6.1 million yen.

Conducted by the National Institute for Radiological Science, medical
space research, including research on space radiation, will receive a
large boost in funding this year over last year\'s budget (37 million
yen vice 30 million yen in JFY97). In terms of decreases, robotic
research has decreased in Japan\'s space

budget by about 20% to 85 million yen. NASDA money for developing a
\"common orbiting platform\" has also decreased to 131 million yen, vice
188 million yen in JFY97.

In looking more closely at the budget for Space Station, the first
impression may be that there are confusing signals. On the one hand,
Japan\'s budget for station is gently decreasing. On the other hand,
however, NASDA is incurring extra costs. As of this writing, the JEM
development schedule is slipping to the right slightly. The end-to-end
JEM systems integration test scheduled to begin in December 1997, is now
scheduled to begin not earlier than February 1998. Last year, NASDA was
given authority to contract 23.9 billion yen over the next 2-3 years.
This year NASDA will be able to contract for no more than 21.6 billion
yen. Given the slip in schedule formally acknowledged by the Partners
during JFY97, one would have expected the contract budget to increase,
not decrease, over last year\'s budget. The fact that it hasn\'t may
mean that NASDA is, like the rest of the Partners, stretching to make
ends meet. I have been assured, however, that there is more than enough
money in reserves to manage the program. More specifically, NASDA has
implemented a strict 30% reserve policy in its contracts and has
displayed no tolerance for overruns. The fact that they have been able
to maintain a stable program with no increases in funding is a source of
understandable pride for JEM management. I was told that \"NASA can
learn a lot from NASDA in funding management.\"

NASDA noted that Japan\'s overall ISS budget also includes a portion of
(1) Facility Equipment Necessary for Satellite and Rocket Development
(18.2 billion yen) and (2) Launch Facility Equipment for Satellites and
Rockets (10.0 billion yen). Unfortunately, the exact portions of these
items that are dedicated to ISS were not released by NASDA for this
report.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

3\. Space Science (Tables 7-8)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

There are little surprises in the Japanese space science budget. The
overall budget for Japanese space sciences will rise 94% to \$67.5
million.

In terms of ISAS programs, Space News recently posited that the launch
of \"the Solar-B will not likely occur by 2004 as planned.\" However,
there is little reason as yet to believe that this is a certainty given
the fact that the ISAS budget request for Solar-B is not for
development, but rather is to conduct a feasibility study for this
mission. ISAS confirmed that whether the launch does in fact slip or not
in the future is dependent more on the development budget authorization
in JFY99-01 than on this year\'s request for Phase-A funding.

The ISAS program that was given the go-ahead to proceed for phase-up is
SELENE (Selenological and Engineering Explorer). SELENE, entering
Phase-B in JFY98 and scheduled to be launched in 2003, is a cooperative
lunar observing and landing mission between NASDA and ISAS. Through this
project the organizations intend to learn how to establish control
technology to put satellites in lunar orbit; develop guidance control
for a soft landing of rovers on the moon; and to develop high
performance, high precision observation equipment. This summer\'s test
of Japan\'s automated rendezvous and docking experiment (Engineering
Test Satellite #7 \-- ETS-7) will undoubtedly influence Japan\'s
continued funding for the SELENE project.

As a final note, ISAS received a nearly double increase in its
construction of facilities budget, bringing it to 2.3 billion yen. As
noted above, administrative costs and COF are not included in the tables
of this report.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

4\. Aeronautics (Tables 9-10)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

The total aeronautics budget dropped 53.6% from last year\'s budget to
\$43.7 million. Japan\'s aeronautic research is performed mostly by the
Science and Technology Agency\'s National Aerospace Laboratory (NAL) and
to some extent by NASDA. From last year\'s budget submission NAL\'s
budget dropped 3% to 3.726 billion yen, nearly the same figure it
requested from the Ministry of Finance (3.728 billion yen). Within this
limited budget, NAL has seen increases in funding for space plane
research, next generation liquid rocket engine research, and space
infrastructure research. NAL\'s \"comprehensive research into space
infrastructure includes research into space environment safety and
utilization technologies.

There are some notable developments in Japan\'s upgraded rocket program,
H-IIA. Although the net H-IIA development budget looks robust this year,
it suffered a large decrease in the amount of money it can contract. The
H-IIA loan amount available to NASDA (amount up to which they could
contract for 2-3 years) for JFY97 was 40.3 billion yen (more than the
JEM development budget for that year). This year the amount is a mere
20.6 billion yen. Consequently, when compared with last year\'s budget
and multiyear advance, the actual H-IIA development budget dropped 21%
over last year\'s total budget. STA explains this decrease as being in
line with the policy for phasing out NASDA involvement in the program
and ramping up commercial involvement in its place. An indicator that
this transition is not proceeding as smoothly as expected may be in the
fact that MOF\'s H-IIA budget represents an increase of 3.7% over NASDA
and STA\'s JFY98 request for H-IIA in August.

The HOPE-X program also received significant cuts. NASDA will have 3.6
billion yen to contract over the next 2-3 years for this program. This
represents a decrease of 12.3% over NASDA and STA\'s JFY98 budget
request for HOPE-X and is 41% of last year\'s budget. STA notes that the
program is not dead but is in critical condition. \"Next year\'s budget
will indicate whether the HOPE-X program survives or dies,\" said the
STA. The STA also noted that Japanese program managers were prepared for
the cuts this year, but realistically can not make it with a similar cut
next year.

The most notable drop, however, has been in the area of reusable
transportation systems, or what the Japanese translation reads as
\"research into orbital transfer vehicles and research for realizing a
perfectly reusable transportation system.\" STA explained the change of
nearly 180% this way: \"when combined

with the new start budget for researching a reusable space
transportation rocket, the change is not all that great.\" In other
words, money that was to have been used for researching and developing a
Space Shuttle-type of space plane and transfer vehicle is being used
instead to study the feasibility of a reusable SSTO-type of rocket.

It is also worth noting that NASDA appears to be backing away from
electronic propulsion research for orbital transfer vehicles.

With regard to ISAS and its rocket capabilities, funding for the
M-series rocket is stable. The M-V, a mid-class launcher that functions
as Japan\'s main space science payload carrier, saw a slight drop in its
funding this year. The first ISAS SS520 sounding rocket, was
successfully launched on February 5. Plans

are underway to launch another again in February 1999, only this time in
Norway at an inclination of 79 degrees. The budget for this program was
not available for this report.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

5\. Satellite Development (Tables 11-12)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Of the five areas in this report, satellite development has the biggest
funding increase this year, though the overall total is lower than Earth
and space science. Increasing by nearly 160%, the overall satellite
development budget will be \$426.2 million.

NASDA\'s eighth Engineering Test Satellite (ETS-8) will receive
authorization to begin Phase-C. The phase-up budget, however, is nearly
one billion yen lower than what NASDA had requested (3.0 billion yen
vice 3.9 billion yen in JFY97). It is still too early to tell if this
budget shortfall will result in a delay in the planned 2002 launch date
for this mission. A more reliable indicator will be the fiscal year 1999
NASDA request and MOF budget submission.

The Optical Interorbit Communication Engineering Test Satellite (OICETS)
should be able to launch on schedule in the summer of 2000. This year\'s
NASDA budget request for OICETS (1.8 billion yen) equaled what MOF put
in its budget submission, making it almost unlikely that OICETS will
slip for budgetary reasons.

Both Data Relay Tracking Satellite (DRTS) missions also appear to be
fiscally healthy, receiving 13 million yen more from MOF than NASDA
requested (17.7 billion yen). Its multiyear funding profile also looks
strong.

Finally, NASDA\'s budget request for the Mission Demonstration Satellite
(MDS) series received a slight cut of 100 million yen from MOF; not
enough, however, to substantially impact the program this year (1.6
billion yen vice 1.8 billion yen requested). The multiyear funding
request, however, was cut by nearly 1 billion yen and should be watched
closely in next year\'s budget request and authorization.

In 2000, NASDA\'s first launch of the new H-IIA vehicle will be for
ESA\'s Advanced Relay and Technology Mission Satellite (ARTEMIS) on a
cost-offset basis; it was unable to give a budget figure for that
activity.

In closing this section, it should be noted that MITI\'s USERS (Unmanned
Space Experiment Satellite) received less than it requested from MOF
(3.6 billion yen vice 3.8 billion yen requested), but should be able to
maintain its schedule. The purpose of this satellite is twofold: to
focus on advanced electric component development as a way to reduce
satellite development costs and to experiment with superconductor
development in space.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Conclusion

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Although the total amount of Japan\'s overall space budget for this year
may be lower than hoped, few Japanese space officials seem surprised by
the outcome. Problems with individual firms and banks as well as poor
overall economic performance dominated the economic news in Japan during
the budget negotiation period last year. The start of 1998 has been
dominated by the Asian financial crisis. Japanese space officials expect
the budget situation to remain severe. It is important to note, however,
that the content of Japan\'s space budget strays little from the Space
Activities Commission\'s 1996 revision of the \"Fundamental Policy of
Japan\'s Space Activities.\" It is likely that Japanese space
organizations over the next several years will continue to pursue the
policy goals outlined in that 1996 statement.

Changes are coming though. The Hashimoto cabinet is committed to fiscal
reform, which includes reducing government spending. Further cuts are
clearly imminent as MOF\'s prioritization exercise on ALOS, SELENE and
ETS-8 funding indicated. As part of his administrative reform package,
Prime Minister Hashimotohas also committed to combining the STA and MOE
into one Education, Science and Technology (EST) Ministry. Cabinet-level
working groups are actively addressing the question of what to do with
NASDA and ISAS, the result of which may be less clout for NASDA. The
combination of the NASDA and ISAS under this new ministry or the
splitting of NASDA into the EST Ministry and the Economy and Industry
Ministry (former MITI) are two scenarios among many.

In addition, STA Minister Tanigaki has requested that all science and
technology organizations conduct an evaluation of their current
programs. Within the next two months, NASDA will begin to conduct its
own evaluation although the final product may not be available for some
time. How all these reform measures will be coordinated is not clear.
The fact that there will be changes to the organization and content of
Japanese space activities over the next several years, however, cannot
be disputed.

Thus, while there may appear to be little change on the surface and to
the content of the JFY98 budget, Japanese aerospace officials are
already beginning to think about new programs and new directions for
Japan=81fs space program. The budding visions of a revised Japanese
space plan will likely not be finalized for at least another three
years. Over that period, it is

important to closely follow these changes and their implications

for future US-Japan space cooperation.

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 2. JFY98 Earth Sciences Budget \<#3\>

(Flight year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA ADEOS-III (03) 0 25

NASDA ATMOS-A (03) 0 46

NASDA MTSAT (99) 0 3,000

MOT MTSAT (99) 5,524 6,885

NASDA ALOS\* (02) 1,817 1,024

MITI ALOS (02) 1,141 1,484

NASDA ADEOS-II\*(99) 9,500 15,430

EA ADEOS-II (99) 906 1,049

MITI ADEOS-II (99) 800 72

NASDA AMSR-E\* 293 2,537

MITI ASTER (98) 630 300

NASDA basic research

into future satellite

observation technology 27.9 6.5

NASDA Earth sensor

research \<#4\> 10,739 8,062

CRL global environment

observation sensors 37.8 37.8

CRL weather forecast

system research 89 88.9

MPT disaster

monitoring 0 11

NASDA forecasting

research 893 839.9

NASDA rainfall

observation research 57,178 45,985

NASDA basic research

into future observation

satellites 27.9 6.5

CRL cloud observation

radar research 18 20

MOC land survey

satellite usage fee 1,640 1,666

JAMSTEC ocean

observation technology 61 50

MITI resource satellite

evaluation technology 35 25.5

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 91,357.6 88,651.1

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#3\> Indicates only satellite development costs; does not

include rocket, ground systems, or launch costs.

\<#4\> Includes sensors for observing the Earth environment,

weather, and oceans; and surveillance of disasters.

There is also money in this pot for developing

technology to manage information and network data.

Table 3. Multiyear Earth Science Funding

JFY 97 JFY 98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA ADEOS-II 3,573.5 4,273.7

NASDA AMSR-E 1,424.0 0

NASDA ALOS 583.0 3,492.0

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 5,580.5 7,765.7

Table 4. JFY98 HEDS Budget

JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA ISS \<#5\> 38,826.7 34,627.3

NASDA ground-based

micro-gravity utilization 2,303.4 2,648.3

NASDA ground-based

space technology research 2,840.8 2,950.1

NASDA medical space

research 160.4 249.6

NASDA space robot

research 122.4 85.0

NASDA common orbiting

platform 188.1 131.2

NASDA untended platform

research 53.0 0.0

NASDA space

infrastructure 0.0 21.4

NASDA small rocket

launch research 0.0 65.7

NASDA launch safety

reviews 0.0 6.1

NASDA space debris

research 31.0 22.7

RIKEN life sciences

research 20.0 20.0

MITI micro-gravity

utilization 744.5 545.9

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 45,290.3 41,373.3

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#5\> This is broken down in a separate table below for

the JEM. Some other useful figures: 10.9 billion

yen for JEM development and 25.3 billion yen for

JEM development and utilization.

Table 5. JFY98 ISS Budget Breakdown

(Fiscal Year) JFY97 JFY98

NASDA Budget Line Item (Millions of yen)(Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

JEM Development 19,836 10,990

Centrifuge Rotor 0 831

CAM 0 862

Life Sciences Glovebox 0 1,766

JEM Operational

Systems Equipment \<#6\> 11,407 14,345

Cooperative research

into JEM utilization

theme candidates 249.9 43

Development of JEM

common experiment 6,008 4,480.6

Cooperative research

into JEM utilization

theme candidates 249.9 43

Accommodations for

Japanese astronauts

aboard JEM \<#7\> 1,075.9 1,266.7

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 38,826.7 34,627.3

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#6\> Hidden in this number is funding for the HTV

(H-IIA Transfer Vehicle), a proposed ISS logistics

carrier. This year\'s budget request for HTV

includes 3,459 million yen for Phase-C funding.

There is also 1,059 million yen of multiyear funding.

The first demonstration flight of the HTV is scheduled

for 2001.

\<#7\> This includes money to seek two additional Japanese

astronauts and pay for their ASCAN training.

Table 6. JFY98 HEDS Multiyear Funding

(Fiscal year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen)(Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Cooperative research

into JEM utilization

theme candidates 3,444.6 3,346.9

Accommodations for

Japanese astronauts

aboard JEM 108.7 0

JEM Development and

JEM Operational

Systems Equipment 20,397 17,829.8

Centrifuge 0 477

CAM 0 254

Life Sciences Glovebox 0 328

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 23,950.3 22,235.7

Table 7. JFY98 Space Science Budget

(Fiscal year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

ISAS ASTRO-E (00) 2,854 4,757

ISAS MUSES-C (02) 940 1,210

ISAS ASTRO-F (03) 600 1,650

ISAS SELENE (03) 0 821

NASDA SELENE (03) 125.8 238.9

ISAS SOLAR-B (04) 0 100

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 4,519.8 8,776.9

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 8. Multiyear Space Science Funding

(Fiscal year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA SELENE 0 1,072

ISAS SELENE 0 821

ISAS ASTRO-E 9,800 0

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 9,800 1,893

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 9. JFY98 Aeronautics Budget

(Flight year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA H-IIA (00) 11,743 20,915

NASDA H-rocket

development \<#8\> 24,361.7 28,561.5

NASDA J-1 rocket

development 839 839.4

ISAS M-rocket

development \<#9\> 1,596.5 1,521.7

M-V rocket

development \<#10\> 6,551.6 5,503.7

NASDA reusable

rocket 0 75.2

NASDA rocket

structure/component 41.4 65.4

NASDA increased

induction research 65.5 41.5

NASDA research into

space infrastructure 207.9 209.8

NASDA unpiloted

reusable vehicle 631 582

NASDA space plane

research 279.7 298

NASDA next

generation liquid rocket

engine research 162 175

NASDA Reusable

transportation system 275.1 98.2

NASDA HOPE-X (01) 10,446.2 4,330

NASDA research into

electronic propulsion

technology for orbital

transfer 16.519 0

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 12,001.9 5,693

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

\<#8\> Includes high speed re-entry technology research

and development.

\<#9\> The M-series rockets are managed by the Ministry

of Education\'s Institute for Space and Astronautical

Science (ISAS), whereas the other rockets are all managed

by NASDA.

\<#10\> It is worth noting that last year ISAS received

no multiyear funding for this line item, whereas this year

they will be authorized 6,803.4 million yen in advanced

funding.

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 10. Multiyear Aeronautics Funding

(Fiscal year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

HOPE-X 4,482.7 3,612

H-II Rocket upper-stage

multi-firing technology 0 120

Equipment for satellite

and rocket development 1,736.7 5,254.7

Equipment for satellite

and rocket launches 18,608 12,838

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 24,827.4 21,824.7

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 11. JFY98 Satellite Budget

(Flight year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

NASDA OICETS (00) 2,391.9 649.2

NASDA DRTS-W (00),-E (01) 1,726.8 15,988.8

NASDA MDS-1 (00), -2 (01) 153 1,592.6

NASDA ETS-8 (02) 248.2 3,009.4

MITI USERS (01) 3,682.6 3,696.7

Small communication

satellite research 119 88.3

Satellite operations 6,660.5 4,820.9

Research into efficient

satellite development 0 21

Improvement of

electronic components 1,002 1,391

Rendezvous and

Docking 64.8 65

High-fidelity

positioning control

systems research 224.8 173

Active heat systems 106.7 74.6

Advanced satellite bus

systems 21.6 10.8

Future satellite designs 89.8 88.9

Small satellite research 140 120

Systems and components

standardization 1,676.9 1,592

Mission Demonstration

Satellite research 127 284.7

Data transmission

satellite technology

research 142 144

High fidelity orbital

positioning systems 24.7 16.6

Facilities necessary for

halving satellite

development costs 5,171 3,302

Facilities for rockets

and satellite

development 12,201.7 18,191.7

MPT feasibility

research on an Asian-

Pacific satellite

communication system 0 89.7

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total 35,975 55,410.9

\* \* \* \* \* \* \* \*

Table 12. Multiyear Satellite Funding

(Fiscal year) JFY97 JFY98

Budget Line Item (Millions of yen) (Millions of yen)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

DRTS -W, -E 7,589.7 8,228.5

ETS-8 793.6 4,984.6

MDS-1, -2 1,487.9 2,901.9

Satellite operations 0 165.5

Improvement of

electronic components 0 265

Systems and

components

standardization 1,043 938.8

Facilities necessary for

halving satellite

development costs 1,420.7 4,603

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Total: 12,334.9 22,087.3