**Acting Director P. Patrick Leahy PowerPoint Presentation at the
Landslide Preparedness for Disaster Prevention International Consortium
on Landslides**

**, Washington, D.C., October 13, 2005. "Natural Hazards Science --
Reducing the World's Risk"**

# Slide 1 -- Title

"Natural Hazards Science -- Reducing the World's Risk"

**Slide 2 - The Need for Natural Hazard Preparedness**

Natural disasters afflict all regions of the world, and improved global
disaster reduction and warning is a shared, global need. Over the decade
1990-1999, disasters killed 500,000 people and caused \$750 billion of
damage, according to data presented in the "Living with Risk" report of
the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

Earlier this year, the Nation\'s attention was tragically focused on
landslides, as rescue workers searched for the missing after a
devastating landslide on January 10, 2005, buried a number of homes in
La Conchita, California. In the end, more than 30 homes were damaged or
destroyed, 14 people were injured, and 10 people lost their lives. In
February, stories of rescue and loss once again emerged from California
as heavy rains triggered deadly mudslides and rock falls. Sadly, these
communities are not alone in their losses. Landslides cost the Nation an
estimated average of 25--50 lives and \$1.65--\$3.3 billion\* every
year. They disrupt communities, transportation routes, fuel conduits,
and other aspects of commerce and daily life across all 50 States.

USGS personnel in the [National Landslide Hazards Program
(NLHP)](http://landslides.usgs.gov/) are working to learn more about
landslides and prevent the devastating losses of life and property they
can cause by helping individuals, consultants, planners, and a variety
of government agencies to better understand landslides and the hazards
they can pose.

**Slide 3 -** **The Role of U.S. Geological Survey**

Landslides can occur and cause damage in all 50 states.

Direct costs of landslides---destruction of infrastructures and
property\--in the United States are estimated at a minimum of \$3.5
billion per year (2005 dollars). We have much less information on the
indirect costs---e.g., the interruption to businesses, transportation
networks vital for commerce---but these costs are most likely even
greater than the direct costs.

Landslides cause between 25 to 50 deaths in the United States annually.

**Slide 4 - USGS Focus on Natural Hazards Science**

• With USGS science and technology, we are striving to prevent natural
hazards from becoming disasters;

• USGS science can help save lives, minimize property damage, and reduce
risks that may result from natural hazards.

• USGS hazards information can reduce disaster losses with forecasts and
warnings of hazards; products in formats that can guide rescue and
recovery efforts; knowledge about the areas at risk from natural
hazards; and public understanding of why, where, how, and when natural
disasters occur.

• Examples of USGS hazards science tools in 2005: Debris flow advisories
for Southern California; Satellite Data for Tsunami Disaster Relief;
*The National Volcano Early Warning System Report*; New map of daily
probability of earthquake shaking in Southern California; Economic
impact study of Los Angeles earthquake released -- estimated at \$250
billion with 3,000 to 18,000 fatalities and 142,000 to 735,000 displaced
households -- by USGS and SCEC; *The NOAA-USGS Debris Flow Warning
System Report*/Southern California Pilot Project; and support for
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita such transforming urgent 911 callers' street
addresses into geospatial coordinates and plot to maps for potential
rescue efforts, providing geospatial data and maps to organize
information needed to deploy search and rescue crews, firefighters,
medical teams, reconstruction teams, developing detailed street-level
search and rescue flood-status maps, and documenting potential flooded
infrastructure converting aerial flight video to maps for critical
information. USGS scientists are also sampling impacted waters, marking
and flagging high-water marks to document flooding and storm surge,
repairing and replacing damaged streamgages to restore flood warning
capacities and installing temporary gages throughout flooded areas in
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana to provide water-level
information to FEMA and others.

**Slide 5 -** **USGS National Landslide Hazards Program**

The Landslide Hazards Program at the U.S. Geological Survey, despite
being a rather small program---particularly in comparison with our
efforts in earthquake and volcano hazards research---has produced some
world-class research and researchers. I am particularly pleased to note
that the primary award presented by ICL each year is named after a
famous USGS employee, David Varnes. I also note that Bob Schuster, who
is in the audience today, was the first recipient of this award at your
Vancouver meeting in 2003.

Because the USGS staff doing landslide hazard research is limited in
number, the USGS does not attempt to conduct nation-wide inventories of
all landslide activity in this large country. I know that many nations
represented here at this meeting, conduct much more systematic
inventories. Instead, USGS scientists are focusing their efforts in
three or four areas. Research in landslide forming processes, and
production of landslide-susceptibility hazard maps particularly in some
of our western states and the Appalachian mountains in the east, remain
a high priority. In recent years our researchers have responded to
landslide and flood disasters in central and South America, the
Caribbean, as well as most recently in southern California.

These response efforts, and a greater emphasis on training the public in
mitigating landslide hazards through better community planning and
zoning, is becoming a larger and larger part of all of our experts. As
Director of the USGS, I think it particularly important to find the
right balance between the critical research into basic landslide
processes, and our duty to help protect the lives and property of our
citizens. With a small staff, finding the right balance is particularly
important.

**Slide 6 - National Landslide Hazard Mitigation Strategy**

The USGS, working with a wide array of partners, developed a
comprehensive national strategy for addressing the widespread landslide
hazards facing the nation. I know that Peter Lyttle has made copies of
this document available to anyone at this meeting who are interested.
The strategy, reviewed by the National Research Council, identifies nine
major elements of an expanded national program for landslide mitigation.
The strategy is robust and well conceived but could only be fully
achieved with a considerable increase in funding. Nine Elements:
Research; Hazard Mapping and Assessments; Real-Time Monitoring; Loss
Assessment; Information, Collection, Interpretation, Dissemination, and
Archiving; Guidelines and Training; Public Awareness and Education;
Implementation of Loss Reduction Measures; and Emergency Preparedness,
Response, and Recovery.

**Slide 7 - Landslide Planning Advisory Guide**

This practical guidebook is designed to help planners incorporate
landslide hazards information into the comprehensive planning process.
Other products include training and workshops for local planners and
planning commission members; a series of GIS and computer-based mapping
and analytical tools with relevant remote sensing data; a curriculum for
use by planning schools to incorporate landslide hazards into land-use
planning programs; and Web-site, referral service, APA member
newsletters, journal articles, and CD-ROMs.

**Slide 8 -** **NOAA-USGS Flash Flood and Debris Flow Warning System
Pilot Project**

This is a key example of how partnerships with other agencies benefit
society. The NOAA-USGS Flash Flood and Debris Flow Warning System Pilot
Project links National Weather Service expertise in precipitation
forecasting and measurement and USGS experience with post-fire
debris-flow events.

Once the smoke clears from a wildfire, the danger is not over. Flash
floods and debris flows---or mudflows---can be one of the most hazardous
consequences of rainfall on burned hill slopes. Just a small amount of
rainfall on a burned area can lead to these hazards. The powerful force
of rushing water, soil, and rock, both within the burned area and
downstream, can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and structures, and
can result in injury or death. The U.S. Geological Landslides Hazards
Program strives to reduce loss of life and property to landslide hazards
through improved understanding and effective mitigation.

Watches: Issued when rain forecasts indicate an increased risk of an
event

Warnings: Issued when rain forecasts indicate that an event is imminent.
The detailed warning maps in real time is something we are striving for
-- not there yet.

**Slide 9 - Relationship of Landslides with Other Natural Hazards**

How do landslides cause tsunamis? Tsunamis are large, potentially
destructive sea waves, most of which are formed as a result of submarine
earthquakes, but which may also result from the eruption or collapse of
island or coastal volcanoes and the formation of giant landslides on
marine margins.  These landslides, in turn, are often triggered by
earthquakes.  Environmental damage by these tsunamis include coral reef
destruction, contamination of wells and other sources of fresh water by
salt water, denudation of trees and other types of dry-land vegetation,
accelerated beach erosion, and fish and other marine life fatalities due
to abnormal wave action.  The flooding and powerful wave action of the
tsunami may potentially cause damage to man-made containment vessels of
petroleum products, chemicals, and garbage landfills, resulting in toxic
leakage, which in turn has the potential to pollute both coastal land
and ocean environment.

Tsunami waves can be generated from displacements of water resulting
from rock falls, icefalls and sudden submarine landslides or slumps.
 Major earthquakes are suspected to cause many underwater landslides,
which may contribute significantly to tsunami generation.  For example,
many scientists believe that the 1998 tsunami, which killed thousands of
people and destroyed coastal villages along the northern coast of
Papua-New Guinea, was generated by a large underwater slump of
sediments, triggered by an earthquake

The 1964 Alaska earthquake caused 115 deaths in Alaska alone, with 106
of these due to tsunamis which were generated by tectonic uplift of the
sea floor, and by localized subareal and submarine landslides. The
earthquake shaking caused at least 5 local slide generated tsunamis
within minutes after the shaking began.

Current research in the Canary Islands concludes that there have been at
least five massive volcano landslides that occurred in the past, and
that these same large events may occur in the future.  These giant
landslides have the potential of generating large tsunami waves, at
close and also very great distances and would have the potential to
devastate large areas of coastal land, as far away as the eastern
seaboard of North America.

Rock falls and rock avalanches in coastal inlets, such as those that
have occurred in the past at Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park,
Alaska have the potential to cause regional tsunamis, that pose a hazard
to coastal ecosystems and human settlements.  On July 9, 1958, a
magnitude M 7.9 earthquake on the Fairweather Fault triggered a rock
avalanche at the head of Lituya Bay, Alaska.  The landslide generated a
wave that ran up 524 m on the opposite shore and sent a 30-m high wave
through Lituya Bay sinking two of three fishing boats and killing two
persons.

**Slide 10 -** **Future Landslide Science Endeavors**

Develop new predictive models to analyze the potential for large, deep
landslides in areas from coastal bluffs to volcanoes;

Improve and expand monitoring techniques in active landslide
environments for better prediction and forecasting;

Advance existing models for rainfall infiltration and existing slope
instability to forecast debris flows;

Develop methods that predict the probability, magnitude, and area of
impact of debris flows generated from recently burned areas;

Advance the NOAA-USGS prototype flash flood and debris flow early
warning system.

**Slide 11 - Natural Hazards Science -- A Matter of Worldwide Public
Safety**

Closing slide.