![](media/image1.png){width="4.95in" height="2.2006944444444443in"}

This marks the 25^th^ anniversary of the energy crisis of 1973, in some
ways the most pivotal year in energy history. Anniversaries are often a
time of reflection. In this spirit, the Energy Information
Administration presents here 30 major energy trends in the United States
over this period. Taken as a whole, these measures provide a picture of
how this country has responded to the crisis a quarter century ago.

Through 1972, Americans had become accustomed to expanding energy
consumption with minimal concerns about the constancy of supply or sharp
price escalations. In 1973, however, expectations about energy supply
changed dramatically.

The turmoil started early in 1973, as customers experienced electricity
brown outs and rapidly rising prices for fuels and other necessities.
Price controls and allocation systems not only failed to resolve these
problems, they seemed to aggravate them. Most memorably, October brought
an oil embargo by members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum
Exporting Countries, cutting further into the supply of oil and
elevating prices to levels previously thought impossible. Customers
experienced lines and sometimes no fuel at gasoline stations.

A year of bad news was punctuated in December, when the President
announced that because of the energy crisis the lights on the national
Christmas tree would not be turned on.

Throughout the year, energy stayed at the forefront of public attention.
Interruptions in energy supplies were also closely related to other
issues of national importance---a weakening of the economy and a
reassessment of America's strategic position in the world.

The purpose of this presentation is not to assess the causes of the 1973
energy crisis or the measures that were adopted to resolve it. Our
intent is to present some data on which such analyses can be based.
Those interested in a fuller set of statistics are urged to consult our
recently published *Annual Energy Review* (Web Site address:
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/contents.html> ).

Many of the trends presented here fall into two distinct periods. From
1973 to the mid-1980's, prices continued at very high levels, in part
because of a second oil shock in 1979-80. During this period, rapid
progress was made in raising American oil production, reducing
dependence on oil imports, and improving end-use efficiency. After the
oil price collapse of the mid-1980's, however, prices retreated to more
moderate levels, the pace of efficiency gains slowed, American oil
production fell, and the share of imports rose.

We hope that the marking of this anniversary will stimulate a lively
dialogue on energy issues and that the data presented here will
contribute to that discussion.

Jay E. Hakes

Administrator

Energy Information Administration

### Slide 1

![](media/image2.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo was the first oil supply disruption to cause
major price increases and a worldwide energy crisis.

In Fifteen years during the last half of the 20^th^ century major
disruptions in world oil supplies have occurred. Six of those instances
decreased the world oil supply by at least 2 million barrels per day
(see illustration above**).**

In 1950, the United States provided 52 percent of the world's crude oil
production; by 1997 that figure had dropped to 10 percent.

Virtually all spare oil production capacity was in the Middle East when
the Arab Oil Embargo began in October 1973.

Supply disruptions increased in severity as world oil production
increased and production shifted to less secure areas of the Middle
East.

Source: Energy Information Administration, Interagency Database and
Projections Working Group.

Slide 2

![](media/image3.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The share of total U.S. consumption of imported oil declined
significantly in the late 1970's and early 1980's. High oil prices
prompted consumers to conserve energy and to switch to other fuels.

U. S. dependence on imported oil increased to record levels during the
last 25 years. *Net imports* provide 48 percent of U.S. oil consumption
\-- (net imports**:** imports minus exports).

The share of total U.S. consumption of imported oil has grown since oil
prices collapsed in 1986 \-- *Gross imports* account for 53 percent of
U.S oil consumption (gross imports**:** no offsets for oil exports).

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.1.

Slide 3

![](media/image4.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The share of world oil production provided by members of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined 25
percentage Points between 1973 and 1985.

OPEC's market share was at it's lowest prior to the major collapse in
oil prices in 1986.

OPEC's market share has rebounded since the 1986 price collapse and now
stands at about 43 percent of world oil production.

Unlike most other countries, a major portion of OPEC's oil is traded in
international markets. OPEC consumes very little of its own oil.

The largest portion of OPEC's oil production is in those countries that
surround the Persian Gulf.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 11.4.

Slide 4

![](media/image5.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

During the past 25 years, the *nominal price* of gasoline (price not
adjusted for inflation) has risen at an average annual rate of 5.2
percent; the *real price* of gasoline (price adjusted for inflation**)**
rose only one-fourth of a percent per year.

Gasoline prices (*real and nominal*) reached a peak in 1981.

Gasoline prices declined after 1981 despite a steady rise in real taxes,
a reflection of world crude oil market movement.

The *nominal* price of gasoline dropped about 31 percent between 1981
and 1986, a post-embargo low.

The *real* price of gasoline dropped 43 percent between 1981 and 1986,
and continued a slow decline for 2 years more. By 1988, the price of
gasoline had declined 45 percent, for a post-embargo low.

Gasoline price increases are strongly influenced by the price of crude
oil.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.22.

**Note(s):** **1972-1977**: price of leaded regular gasoline was used;
**1978-1996**: price for all types of gasoline was used.

Slide 5

![](media/image6.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The *real* price (inflation-adjusted) of crude oil paid by refiners
(refiners acquisition costs) rose from \$10.72 in 1972 to \$16.98 in
1997, an increase of 58 percent.

Prices peaked in 1981 during the Iranian revolution. The Iran-Iraq war
increased fears of another disruption.

Since 1981 there has been a steady decline in oil prices due in part to
the following:

\-- supplies from non-OPEC sources increased and absorbed some of the
demand for OPEC oil .

\-- revenue requirements by members of OPEC led to a consistent
overproduction above their established quotas.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.19.

Slide 6

![](media/image7.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

In an era of regulation and scarcity the inflation-adjusted natural gas
wellhead prices increased about 187 percent by 1997, from \$0.57 to
\$2.15.

In 1954 the Federal Power Commission (now the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission) set controls on wellhead prices for gas intended for
interstate transmission to consumers.

Beginning in 1980, interstate transmission of *new gas* (not under
existing long-term contract) was decontrolled while interstate
transmission of *old gas* (under existing long-term contracts) remained
controlled. All gas was decontrolled in 1993.

Once the marginal supply of interstate transmission of gas was
decontrolled, the average wellhead price of *new gas* rose, prompting a
boom in gas exploration and development.

Average wellhead prices peaked in the early 1980's as more gas entered
the market. Gas prices are now strongly seasonal, increasing in winter
and falling in summer.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 6.8.

Slide 7

![](media/image8.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The total petroleum consumption in the United States has grown at an
average annual rate of 0.5 percent, during the past 25 years.

Following the 1973 OPEC price increases, U.S. consumption of petroleum
declined for 2 years to a level of 16 million barrels per day by 1975.
After which it rose until 1979 when the Iranian revolution caused the
oil price to rise and consumption to decline.

A marked decline in petroleum consumption in the United States continued
into the early 1980's. By 1983, the United States was consuming a low of
15.2 million barrels per day---a decline of almost 20 percent from the
record consumption level of 18.9 million barrels per day in 1978.

Since 1983, the United States has experienced a rather steady increase
in petroleum consumption. The present-day consumption level is nearly
equal to the 1978 all-time high petroleum consumption level.

In 1990, another oil price increase during the Persian Gulf war caused a
slight and temporary decline in U.S. oil consumption.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.1.

Slide 8

![](media/image9.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The *per capita* (per person) use of petroleum decreased at an average
annual rate of 0.5 percent during the past 25 years.

The U.S. per capita use of petroleum decreased for 2 years and then
increased to a peak of 31 barrels in 1978.

From 1978 to 1983, petroleum use per capita in the United States dropped
23 percent, from a peak of 31.0 barrels. (During this period the
population rose 5.5 percent.)

From 1978 to 1983, the consumption of total petroleum in the United
States declined almost 20 percent.

From 1983 to 1988, crude prices declined in both real and nominal terms,
and petroleum use per capita rose slightly. After 1988, petroleum use
per person declined, leveling off at about 25 barrels per capita.

Expansion of gas availability and environmental considerations in recent
years helped stabilize per capita oil use---especially oil used for
industrial and electricity production.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 5.1 and 1.5.

Slide 9

![](media/image10.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The U.S. Government initiated the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in
1976.

In 1977, the SPR fill rate began with imported crude oil. By 1994, the
Reserve had reached its maximum storage of 592 million barrels.

The SPR fill rate ended in 1994. As of 1997, the Reserve storage is at
563 million barrels of crude---about 63 days of net U.S. petroleum
imports.

The United States has held two public sales of crude oil from the
Reserve in 1990/91 and 1996/97.

The first public sale -- 21 million barrels at the time of the Gulf
war---was intended to stabilize the price of crude oil, which had risen
to more than \$33 per barrel. A second public sale of 28 million barrels
occurred in 1996/97.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.15.

Slide 10

![](media/image11.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The cost of finding new oil and gas reserves has declined significantly
since 1977 when EIA began collecting these data.

A new barrel of oil or gas reserves that cost about \$15 to find in 1977
(inflation- adjusted price), costs less than \$5 to find today.

Reserve cost reductions occurred primarily because of significant
improvements in exploration and development technology.

Source: Form EIA-28, "Financial Reporting System."

**Note(s)**: Costs are calculated as the ratio of total exploration and
development expenditures to total oil and gas reserve additions (barrels
of oil equivalent), for the major energy producers reporting to the
Energy Information Administration. All costs are expressed in 1996
dollars, excluding the purchases and sales of reserves, and are 3-year
weighted averages centering on the year shown.

Slide 11

![](media/image12.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The average annual rate of increase in the miles per gallon (mpg) rating
for automobiles is 2.7 percent.

From 1975 to 1996, the average annual increase in the mpg rating for
automobiles and *light trucks* is 2.3 percent. (Light trucks includes
minivans, sport utility vehicles and small pickup trucks.)

In 1975, Congress authorized the Department of Transportation to set and
enforce automobile efficiency standards (*CAFE*: Corporate Average Fuel
Economy). The miles per gallon rating for new automobiles increased
steadily from 1975 through 1988.

After 1988, new automobile operating efficiency leveled off at about
28.5 mpg.

Today, CAFE standards are 27.5 mpg for passenger cars and 20.7 mpg for
light trucks.

From the late 1980's to present, light trucks gained market share and
began to slowly pull the mpg-combined-average rating below the 1987
peak.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency, *Light-Duty Automotive
Technology and Fuel Economy Trends Through 1996*, EPA/AA/TDSG/96-01,
(Ann Arbor MI---August 1996), Table 1.

Slide 12

![](media/image13.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Average horsepower of cars and *light trucks* decreased from 137
horsepower in 1975 to a low of 102 in the 1981/82 period, then rose 63
percent by 1996. (Light trucks includes minivans, sport utility vehicles
and small pickup trucks.)

New car efficiency standards became effective in 1978, stimulating
development of smaller cars, more efficient engines and improvements in
major vehicle components---all of which contributed to improved fuel
efficiency. With such changes, efficiency standards were achieved with
progressively higher powered cars.

Since 1982, the average horsepower of new vehicles has increased
steadily, even as sales for high-powered cars and light trucks dominate
the sales for lower horsepower. Meanwhile, corporate average fleet
efficiencies continue to meet the standard of 27.5 mpg for passenger
cars.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency, *Light-Duty Automotive
Technology and Fuel Economy Trends Through 1996*, EPA/AA/TDSG/96-01,
(Ann Arbor, MI---August 1996), Table 1.

Slide 13

![](media/image14.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The *share* of homes using oil heat has gradually fallen from 31.0
percent in 1972 to 15.3 percent in 1996. The number of homes using oil
heat has fallen by 23 percent.

From 1973 to late 1980 \-- after the Arab oil embargo and the subsequent
increase in the price of oil heat---there was a moratorium on building
new homes with natural gas heat in many northern regions. As a result,
the decline in oil heat was somewhat slower than it would have been.

Oil heat was also displaced by electric heat, which is more readily
available in outlying suburban areas where most new homes are built. In
addition, there has been a slightly higher population growth in the
Southern and Western regions of the United States, where electric home
heating (and cooling) is a frequent choice.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 2.6.

**Note**: Oil heated homes can use either heating oil or liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) for forced air furnaces, hot water central heating,
or small portable kerosene heaters.

Slide 14

![](media/image15.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The share of electric utility net generation from oil has decreased 14
percentage points since 1972, to about 2.5 percent of all electricity
generation.

Changes in the generating capacity are relatively slow and fuel choice
is based on projections of future fuel prices.

In the mid-1970's, oil-fired generation represented 16 to 17 percent of
the nation's capability based on forecasts made in the 1960's and early
1970's of continued growth of electricity demand and stable supplies of
cheap fuel oil.

Oil has been displaced as the prime mover principally by the growth in
coal generation spurred by higher oil prices in the 1970's; and much
more recently by flexible natural gas-fired generation.

After 1978, oil-fired generation fell steadily to about 2.5 percent in
1997.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.3.

Slide 15

![](media/image16.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Since 1972, economic conditions and technological capability have varied
dramatically. Crude oil reserve estimates have varied because improved
technology has increased finding rates. Oil now can be economically
produced in the United States from more marginal fields than was the
case in 1972.

In 1972 the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates of crude oil
reserves were 36.3 billion barrels.

EIA and API estimates differed by 2.3 billion in 1977 \-- when they
first overlapped. The differences were attributed principally to the
different approaches to reserves estimation.

In 1996 EIA's estimates of crude oil reserves were 22.0 billion barrels.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 4.10.

Note(s): **Prior to 1977:** A technical committee sponsored by the API
assembled these data. **Beginning in 1977:** EIA was solely responsible
for assembling the crude reserves data. ***Oil reserves***: The
estimated quantities that can be recoverable with reasonable certainty
in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and
operating conditions.

Slide 16

![](media/image17.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Since 1972, economic conditions and technological capability have varied
dramatically. Natural gas reserve estimates have varied because improved
technology has increased finding rates. As for crude oil, natural gas
now can be economically produced in the United States from more marginal
fields than was the case in 1972.

In 1972 the American Gas Association (AGA) estimates of natural gas
reserves were 266 trillion cubic feet.

In 1996 EIA's estimates of natural gas reserves were 166.5 trillion
cubic feet.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 4.10.

Note(s): **Prior to 1977:** A technical committee sponsored by AGA
assembled these data. **Beginning in 1977:** EIA was solely responsible
for assembling the natural gas reserves data. ***Natural gas
reserves***: The estimated quantities that can be recoverable with
reasonable certainty in future years from known reservoirs under
existing economic and operating conditions.

Slide 17

![](media/image18.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Since starting with heating oil futures in 1978, energy futures and
options markets on the New York Mercantile Exchange have grown and
profoundly changed energy marketing.

Crude oil is usually not sold at a fixed price when purchased. It is
often sold at a reference price using a futures price at delivery.

Gasoline futures prices are watched closely by distributors.

Heating oil distributors make widespread use of future contracts.

Natural gas futures started in April 1990 and grew rapidly.

Electricity futures and options started in 1996 \-- their possible
effects on markets during deregulation are not yet known.

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange.

Slide 18

![](media/image19.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

From 1972 to 1997 energy consumption increased by 20 quadrillion
Btu---to 94.2 quadrillion Btu---a compound growth rate of about 1.0
percent.

The reductions in growth rate correspond to the 1974/75 and 1981/82
changes in economic growth.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 1.3.

**Note:** Data include an estimate of 3 quadrillion Btu for nonutility
renewables prior to 1990.

Slide 19

![](media/image20.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

U.S. energy consumption has increased by more than 28 percent---about 21
quadrillion Btu---during the last 25 years.

Energy growth has occurred during periods of relatively low or stable
prices, and also during periods of healthy economic growth.

Significant declines in energy consumption occurred following major
increases in energy prices, as well as during periods of sluggish
economic activity.

Total energy use declined four consecutive years---from 1980 to 1983.

More than half of the overall energy growth of the last 25 years---about
11 quadrillion Btu---has occurred during the last 6 years.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 1.3.

Slide 20

![](media/image21.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The per capita use of energy has declined 0.8 percent over the last 25
years.

The per capita use of energy decreased for 2 years immediately following
the OPEC embargo.

In 1978, the per capita use of energy peaked at 365 million Btu---a
level not since repeated.

Although the population rose 5.5 percent from 1978 to 1983, the energy
use per person dropped 14 percent.

The start of the decline in consumption of energy coincided with the
onset and aftereffects of a second oil price increase.

From 1983 to present, the energy use per person increased at a steady
low rate of 0.8 percent per year.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 1.5.

Note: The total energy consumed shown in table 1.3 was increased by 3
quadrillion Btu for renewable energy not previously included for the
years 1972 - 1989.

Slide 21

![](media/image22.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Comparing World energy consumption with the United States consumption is
difficult, because the statistics are more complete for the United
States than for the rest of the world.

U.S. consumption fell from approximately 31 percent of World energy
consumption in 1972 to 25 percent in 1996.

The share of U.S. consumption stabilized because the growth in the
developing world energy consumption de-emphasized growth in U.S. energy
consumption.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *International Energy Annual
1996*, DOE/EIA-0219(96). (Washington, DC, February 1998), Table E1.

**Note(s)**: There is a discontinuity in the time series between 1989
and 1990. In the United States, expanded coverage of nonutility use of
renewable energy began in 1990. Independent power producers' use of coal
was included in U.S. consumption beginning in 1992 \-- the changes are
too small to show.

Slide 22

![](media/image23.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Energy consumption per dollar of GDP has declined at an average annual
rate of 1.7 percent during the past 25 years.

In 1972, the energy consumed per dollar of GDP was 20.1 million Btu.
From that high point a steady decline began and lasted through 1986.
After 1986 the decline in energy consumption per dollar of GDP slowed
significantly.

The steady decline through 1986 is a reflection of the emphasis placed
on conserving energy, and of increasing energy efficiency in virtually
all areas of energy consumption. Although oil prices began dropping in
the early 1980's, the efficiency gains were by and large here to stay.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 1.5.

**Note 1**: The total energy consumed shown in table 1.3 was increased
by 3 quadrillion Btu for renewable energy not previously included for
the years 1972 - 1989.

**Note 2**: Energy consumption per dollar of GDP is a measure of energy
intensity. Energy Intensity is the ratio of the amount of energy
consumed to an indicator of the amount of goods produced or services
provided.

Slide 23

![](media/image24.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Renewable energy was approximately 8.4 percent of U.S. total consumption
in 1972. It declined slightly to 7.6 percent in 1997.

Renewable energy comes from hydroelectric power, geothermal, biofuels,
solar and wind-generated energy.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 10.2.

### Slide 24

![](media/image25.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The *nominal price* (not inflation-adjusted) of electricity has risen at
an average annual rate of 5.3 percent during the past 25 years. In
contrast, the *real price* (inflation-adjusted) rose at a rate of 0.3
percent.

Electricity prices (real cents per kilowatthour) have followed two broad
trends: (1) growth throughout the 1970's and into the early 1980's; and
(2) a decline ( real dollars) since about 1982. Increased competition in
the electric power industry has created downward pressures on prices.

The retail price of electricity, in real terms, rose 53 percent from a
low 5.7 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 1972 to 8.7 cents per kWh in
1982. Also, during that period the nominal price rose even more
dramatically, 1.9 to 6.1 cents per kWh, a staggering 220 percent,
tripling the price.

A rise in fossil fuel prices between 1972 and 1982 strongly influenced
the price of electricity.

The nominal price continued to rise after 1982, but at a much more
gradual rate. Meanwhile the real price showed a steady decline of about
30 percent by 1996.

Source: Energy Information Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.13.

Slide 25

![](media/image26.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The percent of new homes built with gas heat increased at an average
annual rate of 0.9 percent during the past 25 years.

A sharp drop in newly built gas-heated homes occurred following the oil
embargo---from a pre-embargo level of 54 percent to a 1978 level of 37
percent.

Concerns about the dependable availability of natural gas in the 1970's
led to restrictions on the use of natural gas in new homes. Restrictions
were in place in the northern region of the country until the late
1980's.

Increases in nominal natural gas prices accelerated after the embargo,
reaching a plateau in 1983. Although the natural gas prices (in nominal
terms) remained fairly constant after 1983, in real terms they declined.

New gas hookups increased with the 1985 decontrol of wellhead prices and
the expansion of natural gas imports.

Currently, two-thirds of new homes are built with natural gas heat.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
*Characteristics of New Housing: 1995*, (Washington, DC, October 1996).

Slide 26

![](media/image27.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The efficiency of an average new refrigerator increased dramatically,
from 3.84 cubic feet per kilowatthour per day in 1972 to 11.22 cubic
feet per kilowatthour by 1996.

New technology, increasing price of electricity, and anticipated energy
efficiency standards contributed to increased efficiency in new
refrigerators.

The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 set minimum
efficiency standards for 13 product types, including refrigerators.
After 1993, no refrigerator could be sold that did not meet the
standards. Standards will be updated again in 2002.

Source: Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers*, Refrigerators
Energy Efficiency and Consumption Trends*, July 14, 1997.

**Note(s)**: The efficiency of a refrigerator is expressed in "volume
cooled per unit electric energy per day." **Volume** is measured in
cubic feet and **electrical energy** is measured in kilowatthours.
Increased efficiency compensates for the increasing size of
refrigerators. **Average efficiency** is the sales-weighted average over
all models sold in the United States.

Slide 27

![](media/image28.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Electric Utilities used petroleum for 17 percent of electric generation
in 1973. During the 1973 oil embargo petroleum prices soared while its
availability was labeled as questionable, thus began a long-term decline
in the use of petroleum as a fuel for electric generation.

Petroleum-fired electric plants produced only 2 percent of electric
generation in 1997 \-- due to increased use of nuclear, gas-fired and
coal-fired electric generation.

A rapid growth of nuclear electricity generation was slowed by the 1979
accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. No new orders for
nuclear reactors were made after 1978.

Electric utility generation by nuclear reactors has improved
significantly. The national capacity factor---below 65 percent in the
1970's and 1980's---has surpassed 70 percent since 1991, achieving 76
percent in 1996.

Source: **Nuclear portion of domestic electricity**: Energy Information
Administration, *Annual Energy Review 1997*, DOE/EIA-0384(97).
(Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.3; **Reactor performance:** *Annual
Energy Outlook* 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98), (Washington, DC---December
1997), p 54; Form EIA-759, "Monthly Power Plant Report."

Slide 28

![](media/image29.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Total emissions for all criteria pollutants shown, except Nitrogen
Oxides, have declined even though vehicle miles traveled and gross
domestic product have increased. (pollutants shown include carbon
monoxide, organic compounds, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter)

Total emissions declined substantially on a per-capita basis, from about
1.2 pounds per person in 1972 to 0.68 in 1996. The decreases are
attributable to the Clean Air Act regulations which began in 1970 and
continued into the 1990's. Changes in the business cycle and improved
manufacturing practices also have played a role in the decline.

Lead emissions (too small to report in the graph) declined from an
estimated 221 thousand short tons in 1970 to 3.9 thousand tons in 1996,
largely due to the removal of lead from gasoline.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation*,
National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Report: 1900 - 1996*,
EPA-454/R-97-011, (Washington, DC, December 1997), Appendix A.

**Note**: Particulate emissions including fugitive dust consist of
particles less then 10 microns in diameter (PM-10).

Slide 29

![](media/image30.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

Carbon emissions in the United States have risen at an average annual
rate of 0.8 percent during the past 25 years.

U.S. carbon emissions are the product of : (1) demand for energy
services; (2) end-use energy efficiency; (3) energy transformation
efficiency; and (4) the choice of fuels used.

The use of energy services has tended to track the growth of the U.S.
economy. But, emissions have grown much more slowly than the U.S.
economy or even energy consumption, because of the increases in energy
efficiency and large-scale fuel switching.

Periods of declining emissions have tended to coincide with periods of
prolonged higher energy prices.

In the 1990's, with real energy prices at lower levels than previous
decades and further fuel switching of marginal importance, energy
consumption and emissions track economic growth much more closely than
in the preceding two decades.

The carbon emissions range between 5 and 6 metric tons per person per
year.

Source: For **1990 - 1997**, Energy Information Administration,
*Emissions of Greenhouses Gases in the United States 1997*,
DOE/EIA-0573(97). (Washington, DC, report in preparation). For **other
years**, EIA estimates based on unpublished analysis.

Slide 30

![](media/image31.png){width="5.0in" height="3.75in"}

The average annual rates of carbon dioxide emissions varied by sector
during the past 25 years \-- Residential, 0.7 percent; Commercial, 1.6
percent; Industrial, -0.04 percent; Transportation, 1.4 percent.

Carbon dioxide emissions grew in all sectors during the past decade.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the Industrial sector are still lower than
they were in the 1970's. This is partly due to a shift in the structure
of the U.S. industry from energy-intensive basic industries (steel and
chemicals), towards more complex and less raw material-intensive
products \-- a shift that can be partly due to fuel switching and
increasing energy efficiency.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the Transportation sector were stabilized in
the early 1980's by the increasing fuel efficiency of post-1980 model
cars. However, as vehicle fuel efficiency gains have diminished,
transportation emissions have resumed their growth.

Source: For **1990-1997**, Energy Information Administration, *Emissions
of Greenhouses Gases in the United States 1997*, DOE/EIA-0573(97).
(Washington, DC, report in preparation). For **other years**, EIA
estimates based on unpublished analysis.