Keynote Presentation

(Summary)

# **Keynote Address: Richard Preston**

![](media/image1.png){width="2.082638888888889in"
height="2.2555555555555555in"}Richard Preston, author of *The Cobra
Event* and *The Hot Zone*, addressed the Forum participants. He told
them that if a terrorist incident takes place, they would be on the
front line. Those on the State and local levels will deal with it, not
the Federal Government; therefore, he believes it is only appropriate
that the Federal Government listen to local jurisdictions. It is,
however, not clear to him that such jurisdictions will receive the
support they need.

Mr. Preston noted that the 21st Century will present new, unprecedented
threats including genetic engineering. Genetic engineering can change a
form of life and then clone it. Such engineering could make already
deadly organisms even stronger and more dangerous.

When Mr. Preston prepared to write about the terrorist threat, he used
top-level sources. None of these sources wanted attribution and would
only speak with him if their interviews were classified as background,
yet they also wanted to share their information with others. This
reluctance to speak on record is why Mr. Preston, whose background is
journalism, uses the novel genre for what he calls his fact-based
thrillers. Scientists told him that biological weapons have the capacity
to destroy the nation. Chemical weapons, which include toxins, travel
through the air and then dissipate. Biological weapons, on the other
hand, are living organisms that know how to replicate themselves.
Strategic biological weapons can travel and spread from victim to
victim. In theory, such weapons could have a global impact.

In the late 1960's, President Nixon ordered that the United States test
biological weapons for their usability in war. The scientific community
looked at their wartime use with great skepticism because they did not
believe such weapons would work.

From 1968 to 1969, open-air tests were performed in the Pacific. A
substance too small to be seen was dispensed. Yet when the substance
went downwind in the direction of monkeys being kept in barges, this
substance infected 50 percent of the animals. Of those infected, 100
percent died. A similar situation could destroy half the population of
cities like Washington, DC, New York, and Los Angeles.

When the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was still in
existence, the Soviets were also testing these weapons, and they had a
huge stash of biological weapon warheads that was trained on large U.S.
cities. The Soviets could have destroyed the United States without ever
using a nuclear bomb. Now that the Soviet Union has dissolved, where did
their scientists go? Where did their biological arsenal go?

After President Clinton read *The Cobra Event*, he ordered an
intelligence investigation into the validity of the book's content.
Afterwards, a high-level Tabletop Exercise was conducted based on the
book, and those who took part failed to resolve the situation. Players,
who were heads of agencies, argued and could not make decisions.

Mr. Preston thought the scenario that participants viewed was excellent.
It portrayed a diffuse incident with no epicenter, which is what will
most likely happen with bioweapons. Such an incident will resemble a
tidal wave. People will wonder how high it will go and when it will
break.

Mr. Preston related an incident when the Minnesota Vikings flew home
from Miami on Northwest Airlines. Players ate sandwiches provided by
Northwest and took the leftovers to their families. Approximately 35
percent of the team became ill; some were even hospitalized. Family
members also became ill. They were suffering from a severe case of
shigalosa, which was multi-drug resistant. The source of the disease was
in the airline kitchen. More people than the Viking players and their
families were affected. Although CDC could not track all those who
became ill, they estimated that 2,500 to 7,000 cases occurred. The
entire outbreak was traced to two employees, the tomato slicers. If
anyone ate a tomato, they got sick.

While this incident was bad, it was not fatal. When dealing with agents
that are fatal, the threat is awful. Smallpox could be the most likely
weapon. Because only 7 million usable dosages of the vaccine are
available, the nation is very vulnerable to this threat. If 100 cases
were to break out, at least 50 million people would need to be
vaccinated. Vaccinating 250 million people would be better. This threat
underscores the need to stockpile vaccines. Public outrage would result
if vaccinations were not available. At the present time, the health
community is not involved in preparations against biological weapons.

Mr. Preston quoted Thucyides who said, "Hope is an expensive commodity."
If all the United States does is hope that terrorist attacks will not
occur, the cost will be very expensive. Mr. Preston urged that a little
be spent now so our country will be prepared.

In response to questions from participants, Mr. Preston stated that the
public health system is not on top of the smallpox problem. Although
experts caution against vaccinating everyone because of the severe
reactions that can result, enough vaccination should be on reserve and
available for when it might be needed. He believes that DHHS and CDC
need to go to Congress for a "big ask" (request for a large
appropriation). He noted that the nation's public health system has been
in decline for a generation.

Mr. Preston said that young people have strong reactions to his books.
After reading his novels, these youngsters express interest in becoming
scientists and virologists. People their age are sensitized to genetic
engineering issues. They even know how to perform basic cloning in their
high school science labs. If teenagers know how to use this method, the
country can be certain that an Iraqi scientist knows how to use it even
more effectively.

When asked why such weapons have never been used for mass destruction,
Mr. Preston responded that attempts to do so in World War II were not
successful; however, today's technology is much better. A device the
size of a credit card can be used to disperse an aerosol that could
easily convey a biological weapon.