**Draft 5/18/08**

**[Alternative Proposal for FY 11-15 Planning and
Programming]{.underline}**

**[Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM)]{.underline}**

**Title of Activity:** Enhanced Climate (Reference) Observing System
(Atmosphere)

**Program/Capability/Theme:** Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM)
Program; Climate System Observations (OBS) capability: Climate Themes:
*Climate Services Infrastructure, Sector Assessment and Application,
Regional Applications of a Climate Service*, and contributes to
*Verification and Quantification of Climate Forcing Emissions and Their
Impacts* and *Advancing Predictions and Projections of High Impact
Phenomena.*

**Why (Statement of Need/Economic Benefits):** Predictions of the
earth's climate system require improved historical analysis based on
climate quality observations. Climate reference measurements underpin
modeling and prediction capabilities supporting decision makers
preparing for and responding to climate change impacts. Many reports
identify the critical need for climate observations: NRC 1999 report
Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems underscored the deteriorated
condition of the USHCN stations. Climate observing systems contribute to
the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) and the Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Users include: (1) the private
sector (such as the energy, agricultural, and retail industries) needing
high quality climate data in near-real time to monitor conditions that
directly impact their company's financial health; (2) utility managers
(such as water managers) in need of timely and easy access to quality
observations to plan; (3) climate research and modeling scientists
studying and monitoring climate variability, change, trends, and
impacts; and (4) weather forecasters who need the data to improve their
forecast accuracy. Society and the economy will benefit from improved
accuracy of plausible scenarios of future climate trends, which will
help protect lives and property, reduce climate impact investment costs,
and lead to better monitoring, understanding, and planned responses to
climate variation and change. This alternative promotes a focused,
prioritized strategy toward selective closing of national and global
atmospheric observing gaps of essential climate variables (ECV) most
needed to evaluate and define climate forcing processes and feedback
mechanisms (in partnership with the COM FY 11 GHG/ CO~2~ alternative)
and other climate variation and change analyses and research activities.
Observing System Experiments (OSEs) will optimize the design. This
systematic approach capitalizes on potential synergies and realizes the
full potential return on investment while reducing observational gaps
and operating costs.

**What (Proposed Actions and Deliverables):**

Identify critical climate observational gaps, procure and calibration of
sensors, installation, and data processing, archive, and access.
Procurement and procedures will follow other successful projects, such
as USCRN. This will minimize instrument and processing biases and result
in lower purchase and life cycle operations and maintenance costs. USCRN
and USHCN-M observing systems are part of this network of reference
climate observing systems being implemented under separate budget
profiles. A priority focus of this alternative will be on implementing
an operational SEBN and designing an operational Reference Radiosonde.

*Atmosphere*: (in coordination with WWS integrated observations
activities)

-   FY10-15 Design and install a Surface Energy Budget Network (SEBN) of
    at least 28 standardized configured stations, 20 of which will be
    located at locations of existing research based solar and surface
    energy balance observing systems (SURFRAD, STAR, and/or GEWEX)

-   FY11-15 Design, prototype, test, evaluate, and move into production
    a Reference Radiosonde. Operationally implement dual launch
    capability collocated at a minimum of ten NWS RRS and two DOE ARM
    U.S. operational sites to address confidence issues associated with
    vertical atmospheric temperature and water vapor measurements from
    standard radiosonde and satellite-based measurements.

-   FY12-17 Upgrade \~73 Global Surface Network (GSN) and \~30 Global
    Upper Air Network (GUAN) sites to GRUAN sites as part of the U.S.
    Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

-   FY 13-TBD US GCOS - High Elevation and Tropical CRN-like sites.

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-   [Observing System Evaluations (OSE):]{.underline} A collaborative
    activity with the other programs: EMP and WWS to close global
    climate observational gaps. Conduct as required for: Reference
    Radiosonde -- U.S. locations, and GCOS - GSN, GRUAN, High Elevation
    and Tropical CRN-like numbers and locations.

-   *[Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Climate Reference Observations Data
    Integration]{.underline}:* Develop/implement in coordination with
    CRM and EMP programs.

[Associated Deliverables:]{.underline}

-   Develop/Implement ingest, inventory, QC processing, metadata,
    archive, and access procedures & protocols, & documentation.

-   Indentify and establish operational procedures and capability for
    traceable calibration standards for sensors where available.

-   Design observing stations (as applicable), procure and calibrate
    sensors, and procure support equipment, and install/deploy.

-   Provide Life Cycle Operations and Maintenance (O&M).

**Resources Needed:**

*Funding directed towards: Contracts (OSEs), equipment, ship time, and
personnel. Observing systems and data integration inherently have
recurring life cycle O&M costs.*

  -------------------------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
  **Major Cost Categories    **FY 09     **FY 10**   **FY 11**    **FY 12**    **FY 13**    **FY 14**    **FY 15**
  (\$K)**                    PB**                                                                        

  **FY 09 PB** PROFILE (base **5,369**   **6,669**   **6,669**    **12, 269**  **12, 269**  **12, 269**  **12, 269**
  funding) per COM E2E:                                                                                  
  *USCRN, USHCN-M and GCOS*                                                                              

                                                                                                         

  **100% Requirement TOTAL**                         **15,839**   **21,569**   **23,419**   **23,169**   **22,319**
  (details pg 4)                                                                                         

                                                                                                         

  **Total DELTA** (100%                              **9,170**    **9,300**    **11,150**   **10,900**   **10,050**
  minus FY09 PB)                                                                                         

  **DELTA** **for top two    \-          \-          **4,000**    **4,000**    **4,850**    **4,850**    **4,850**
  priorities**: SEBN and Ref                                                                             
  Sonde (U.S NWS RRS/DOE                                                                                 
  ARM)                                                                                                   
  -------------------------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

**Who and Where (Execution Plan):**

Primary responsibility for "execution" is the COM program, specifically
NCDC, NWS, US GCOS, ARL/ATDD, and ESRL/GMD. Broad coordination and
collaboration planning and implementation support: OAR Office of Climate
Observations (OCO), NESDIS STAR, NWS, RCCs, State Climatologists, NOAA
Regional Teams, NOAA COOP Institutes, UCAR, NCAR, NASA, CRM and CSD
programs, Ecosystem and C&T goals, and MObI Sub-goal EMP program.

**When (Schedule and Milestones):**

+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| **Atmospheric**              | * | **  | **  | * | * | * | **FY |
|                              | * | FY1 | FY1 | * | * | * | 15** |
|                              | F | 0** | 1** | F | F | F |      |
|                              | Y |     |     | Y | Y | Y |      |
|                              | 0 |     |     | 1 | 1 | 1 |      |
|                              | 9 |     |     | 2 | 3 | 4 |      |
|                              | * |     |     | * | * | * |      |
|                              | * |     |     | * | * | * |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| ***Surface Energy Budget     |   | Pro | Dep | X | X | X | Comp |
| Network (SEBN)* -- First     |   | tot | loy |   |   |   | lete |
| priority:** 28 sites.        |   | ype | St  |   |   |   |      |
| Upgrade U.S. BSRN            |   | &   | art |   |   |   |      |
| (SURFRAD/NOAA STAR) & U.S.   |   | O   |     |   |   |   |      |
| GEWEX, install 6 new to meet |   | T&E |     |   |   |   |      |
| benchmark standards. (FY09   |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
| PDM approved/FY 10 NOSC/TPIO |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
| endorsed)                    |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| ***U. S. Reference           |   |     | Pro | D | X | X | Comp |
| Radiosonde Network* Second   |   |     | tot | e |   |   | lete |
| Priority:** \~10 U.S. NWS    |   |     | ype | p |   |   |      |
| RRS/DOE ARM sites (# TBD by  |   |     | &   | l |   |   |      |
| OSE)                         |   |     | O   | o |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     | T&E | y |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | S |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | t |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | a |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | r |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | t |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| *Global Reference Radiosonde |   |     |     |   | D | X | Comp |
| Upper Air Network (GRUAN)*   |   |     |     |   | e |   | lete |
| \~30 non-U.S. sites (# TBD   |   |     |     |   | p |   | FY   |
| by OSE)                      |   |     |     |   | l |   | 17   |
|                              |   |     |     |   | o |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | y |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | S |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | t |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | a |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | r |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     |   | t |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| *Global Surface Network      |   |     | Dep | X | X | X | Comp |
| (GSN)*                       |   |     | loy |   |   |   | lete |
|                              |   |     | St  |   |   |   | FY   |
| \~75 non-U.S. sites (# TBD   |   |     | art |   |   |   | 17   |
| by OSE)                      |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| *U. S. GCOS* - High          |   |     |     | D | X | X | TBD  |
| Elevation and Tropical       |   |     |     | e |   |   |      |
| CRN-like configured: U.S.    |   |     |     | p |   |   |      |
| and non-U.S. locations (#    |   |     |     | l |   |   |      |
| depends on funding/OSE)      |   |     |     | o |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | y |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | S |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | t |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | a |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | r |   |   |      |
|                              |   |     |     | t |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| Observing System Experiments |   |     | X   | x | x | x |      |
| (OSEs) as needed             |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+
| *Coupled Ocean/Atm Climate   | X | X   | X   | X | X | X |      |
| Ref Obs Data Integration     |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
| Ongoing*                     |   |     |     |   |   |   |      |
+------------------------------+---+-----+-----+---+---+---+------+

**Benefits Achieved/Forgone:**

In-situ observations from these climate (reference) observing systems
will be used to increase the value and utility of other more spatially
comprehensive observing networks, including satellites, *in-situ*, and
other remote observing systems.

-   Identify and reduce biases from data collected by other existing
    in-situ observing systems that were designed for purposes other than
    climate.

-   Remove biases from data collected by existing observing systems that
    were designed for purposes other than climate.

-   *In-situ* climate focused reference and benchmark observations can
    be used for inter-comparison with satellite measurements.

-   Maintain a consistent long term climate record.

-   Improve quality and quantity of climate observations, analyses, and
    interpretation capabilities to determine why climate changes are
    occurring.

-   Implement more integrated and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate
    quality reference observations.

*Foregone*: Climate observational gaps not closed, less value/utility of
other observations for climate uses.

*Risk*: Low technological risk.

*Barriers*: Primarily funding.

*Dependencies*: Collaboration with other goals and programs, and
NOAA/non-NOAA agencies.

Performance Measure(s):

+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Climate Performance          | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   |
| Measure:** *Implement/Sustain  | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY | *FY |
| Enhanced Climate (Reference)   | 10  | 11  | 12  | 13  | 14  | 1   |
| Observing System (Atmosphere)  | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | Ta  | 5** |
| (Cum Total %)* **\*\***        | rge | rge | rge | rge | rge |     |
|                                | t** | t** | t** | t** | t** | *   |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | *Ta |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | rge |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | t** |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **With Increase**              | 29  | 35  | 45  | 55  | 65  | 75  |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | **\ |
|                                |     |     |     |     |     | #** |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Without Increase** (USCRN    | 29  | 32  | 36  | 40  | 44  | 48  |
| and USHCN-M only)              |     |     |     |     |     |     |
+--------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+

**\*\*** Based on a total of four (4) Atmospheric Reference Observing
Systems: USCRN, SEBN, and Reference Radiosonde -NWS dual capable RRS
sites) being 100% and USHCN-M only 66% complete by FY 15.

**\#** USHCN-M Current Budget Profile inadequate to complete 100%
modernized status by FY 15.

**FYI: Provides Details of 100% Requirements**

(Based on SEBN, Ref Sonde, GSN, GRUAN completed by end of FY 15)

+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **Major Cost Categories   | **FY | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | *   |
| (\$K)**                   | 09   | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | *FY |
|                           | PB** | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 1   |
|                           |      | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 5** |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **FY 09 PB** PROFILE      | *    | *  | *  | *  | *  | *  | **  |
| (base funding) per COM    | *5,3 | *6 | *6 | *1 | *1 | *1 | 12, |
| E2E: ***Only** current    | 69** | ,6 | ,6 | 2, | 2, | 2, | 26  |
| USCRN, USHCN-M, and GCOS  |      | 69 | 69 | 2  | 2  | 2  | 9** |
| budgets*                  |      | ** | ** | 69 | 69 | 69 |     |
|                           |      |    |    | ** | ** | ** |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| U.S. Climate Reference    | 3    | 4  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 4,  |
| Network includes Alaska   | ,200 | ,5 | ,5 | ,5 | ,5 | ,5 | 500 |
| (USCRN) 114 CONUS/29 AK   |      | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00 |     |
| FY10-15                   |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| U.S, Historical           | 495  | 4  | 4  | 6  | 6  | 6  | 6,  |
| Climatology Network       |      | 95 | 95 | ,0 | ,0 | ,0 | 095 |
| (USHCN-M) \~1,000         |      |    |    | 95 | 95 | 95 |     |
| modernized sites lower    |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| 48, nine climate regions  |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| U.S. Global Climate       | 1    | 1  | 1  | 1  | 1  | 1  | 1,  |
| Observing System (GCOS)   | ,674 | ,6 | ,6 | ,6 | ,6 | ,6 | 674 |
|                           |      | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **100% Requirement**      |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| (only systems listed      |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| above -- currently have   |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| no \$s)                   |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| [Surface Energy Budget    | [    | [  | [2 | [2 | [2 | [2 | [2  |
| Network (SEBN (first      | ]{.m | ]{ | ,5 | ,5 | ,5 | ,5 | ,50 |
| priority) 28              | ark} | .m | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 0]{ |
| sites]{.mark}             |      | ar | ]{ | ]{ | ]{ | ]{ | .ma |
|                           |      | k} | .m | .m | .m | .m | rk} |
|                           |      |    | ar | ar | ar | ar |     |
|                           |      |    | k} | k} | k} | k} |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| [Reference Radiosonde     | [    | [  | [1 | [1 | [2 | [2 | [2  |
| (second priority) design, | ]{.m | ]{ | ,5 | ,5 | ,3 | ,3 | ,35 |
| prototype, test, & dual   | ark} | .m | 00 | 00 | 50 | 50 | 0]{ |
| operations \~10 U.S NWS   |      | ar | ]{ | ]{ | ]{ | ]{ | .ma |
| RRS U/A sites (#TBD by    |      | k} | .m | .m | .m | .m | rk} |
| OSE)]{.mark}              |      |    | ar | ar | ar | ar |     |
|                           |      |    | k} | k} | k} | k} |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| Global Surface Network    |      |    | 2  | 2  | 2  | 2  | 2,  |
| (GSN ) - GCOS             |      |    | ,2 | ,2 | ,2 | ,2 | 250 |
|                           |      |    | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |     |
| (third priority) \~75     |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| non-U.S. sites upgrades   |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
|                           |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| (#TBD by OSE)             |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| Global Reference Upper    |      |    | 0  | 0  | 1  | 1  | 1,  |
| Air Network (GRUAN) -     |      |    |    |    | ,7 | ,7 | 750 |
| GCOS (third priority)     |      |    |    |    | 50 | 50 |     |
| \~30 non-U.S. GUAN sites  |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| (#TBD by OSE)             |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| GCOS High                 |      |    | 1  | 1  | 1  | 1  | 1,  |
| Elevation/Tropical \~35   |      |    | ,2 | ,2 | ,2 | ,2 | 200 |
| up to 70 locations, as    |      |    | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00 |     |
| funding permits           |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| OSEs - as needed first    | [    |    | 9  | 1  | 1  | 8  | 0   |
| priority evaluate U.S     | ]{.m |    | 70 | ,1 | ,1 | 50 |     |
| dual ops locations/#      | ark} |    |    | 00 | 00 |    |     |
| sites, then GSN/GRUAN     |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| Atm/Ocean Data            |      |    | 7  | 7  | 7  | 7  | 750 |
| Integration - Ongoing     |      |    | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **100% Requirement        |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| TOTAL**                   |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **Total**                 |      |    | *  | *  | ** | ** | *   |
|                           |      |    | *9 | *9 | 11 | 10 | *10 |
|                           |      |    | ,1 | ,3 | ,1 | ,9 | ,05 |
|                           |      |    | 70 | 00 | 50 | 00 | 0** |
|                           |      |    | ** | ** | ** | ** |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| **DELTA** (100% minus     |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
| FY09 PB)                  |      |    |    |    |    |    |     |
+---------------------------+------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+