# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 03-04

March 2004

# 

**Crop Tour in South Africa Confirms Low Corn Output**

**South Africa: Corn Production Unchanged From Last Month, But Down From
Last Year**

![](media/image2.png){width="6.495833333333334in"
height="3.5902777777777777in"}

South Africa's 2003/04 corn production is estimated at 7.5 million tons,
the lowest since 1994/95. The crop estimate is unchanged from last
month, but down 2.2 million or 22 percent from last year's crop.
Harvested area is estimated at 2.9 million hectares, unchanged from last
month, but down 0.7 million from last year. The decline in area planted
is attributed to low market prices during 2003 and below normal rainfall
at the start of season, which delayed plantings by 2-3 weeks throughout
the region. The estimated yield of 2.54 tons per hectare is below the
5-year average of 2.65 tons per hectare due to late plantings, a shorter
growing season, low soil moisture reserves at the start of season, and
lower than average irrigated corn area.

USDA/FAS staff traveled within the Maize Triangle during the last week
of February to assess crop conditions (refer to figure). In general, the
crop in the high-yielding east was observed to be near average due to
favorable rains during January and February, but irrigated corn area was
below average due to lack of water in local farm reservoirs. Crop
conditions in the low-yielding west were slightly below average due to a
late start of season and patchy rainfall, but some areas had average
crops due to good rainfall in January and February. No major pests or
disease problems were reported or observed, but an early frost in April
could cause some crop damage as most of the crop was planted 2-3 weeks
late. *(For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)*

# Australia: Wheat Production Increased to a New Record

Australia\'s 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 25.0 million tons,
up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 14.9 million or 149
percent from last year. This forecast exceeds the previous record
established in the 1999/2000 season of 24.8 million tons. This large
year-to-year production rise is the result of higher area and yield. The
current 2003/04 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.5 million hectares,
unchanged from last month but up 1.45 million or 13 percent from last
year. Nearly all negative effects resulting from a delayed start earlier
in the season have been offset by beneficial growing conditions
sustaining yield potential. Rainfall to-date in nearly all growing areas
has been favorable. Many portions of the winter grain belt received
normal to above-normal rainfall amounts for the period July 1 through
September flowering, and into grain fill. The current yield forecast is
2.0 tons per hectare, up 0.04 tons per hectare, or 2 percent above last
month and up 1.09 tons per hectare, or 119 percent above last year's
drought-reduced crop. Western Australia experienced excellent growing
conditions and is forecast to produce a record 10.6-million-ton wheat
crop. *(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)*

# 

# Australia: Barley Production Increased 

Australia\'s 2003/04 barley production is forecast at 8.5 million tons,
up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and up 4.8 million or 130
percent from last year. This forecast exceeds the previous record
established in the 2001/02 season of 8.5 million tons. This large
year-to-year production rise is the result of higher area and yield. The
2003/04 barley area is forecast at 4.0 million hectares, unchanged from
last month, but up 0.22 million hectares or 6 percent from last year.
The area forecast of 4.0 million hectares is the largest harvested area
in the Australian barley historical series. The previous record area was
3.8 million hectares harvested in the 2002/03 season. Growing conditions
in nearly all barley producing areas were favorable. The current yield
forecast of 2.13 tons per hectare establishes a new national record, up
0.13 tons per hectare or 7 percent above last month and up 1.15 tons per
hectare or 116 percent above last year's drought-reduced crop. The
largest producing states, South Australia and Western Australia,
experienced excellent growing conditions throughout the season. *(For
more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)*

# 

# European Union: Corn Production Revised Upward

Corn production in the European Union is estimated at 30.73 million tons
in 2003, an increase of 0.5 million from last month, but down 22 percent
from 39.45 million tons last year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.14
million hectares, 4 percent below last year\'s level of 4.3 million. The
month-to-month increase is attributed to upward revisions in France and
Spain. The yield for this year\'s crop is estimated at 7.42 tons per
hectare, substantially lower than 9.17 tons per hectare last year, which
was slightly above average. The 2003 crop produced the lowest yield seen
in the European Union since 7.0 tons per hectare in 1991. Corn planting
conditions were generally favorable in western Europe last spring, but
the summer months were unusually hot and dry. Most of the corn in
Western Europe is irrigated, and farmers in France and Italy were
subject to water-use restrictions in August. By many accounts, the
dryland corn in France and central Italy was devastated. However,
because of the early corn harvest (or in some cases abandonment), some
farmers were able to plant higher yielding fall-seeded crops instead of
waiting for spring, improving their prospects for 2004. *(For more
information, contact James Tringe at 202-720-0882.)*

## Mexico: Corn Production Estimate Increased

Mexico's 2003/04 corn production is estimated at 20.0 million tons, up
1.0 million tons or 5 percent from last month and up 0.72 million or 4
percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 7.6 million
hectares, up 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month. The changes
reflect the Government of Mexico reports of better-than-expected results
in the main growing areas due to improved weather for the summer crop.
Less-than-normal rainfall during May and June across parts of the
Central Plain was a concern at a time when the reservoir levels at
important irrigation sites in the region were at historic lows. Recent
reports say that with the resumption of mid-season rainfall, which
recharged moisture-deficient fields, plants apparently took advantage of
Mexico's long growing season to continue grain filling. *(For more
information, contact Ronald White at 202-690-0137.)*

# India: Wheat Production Decreased

India\'s 2003/04 wheat production is revised downward to 65.1 million
tons, a reduction of 4.2 million or 6 percent from last month and down
6.7 million or 9 percent from the previous season's output. The 2003/04
India wheat area is forecast at 25.9 million hectares, up 0.6 million or
2 percent from last month, but unchanged from the previous season. The
Government of India (GOI) Directorate of Economics and Statistics
recently revised its earlier estimate of 69.3 million tons (issued
December 2003) downward to 65.1 million. According to sources, the GOI
explained that the seriousness of the 2002 drought and its effect on
wheat production had been underestimated. The GOI reported that firm
yield data becoming available from state level crop cutting surveys has
made it apparent that production in 2003/04 season was less than
originally stated. *(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at
202-690-0135.)*

# Philippines: Rice Production Higher 

Philippine rice production for 2003/04 is estimated at a record 9.1
million tons (milled basis), up 0.3 million or 3 percent from last month
and up 8 percent from last year. Estimated area was raised slightly this
month to 4.12 million hectares. The estimated yield of 3.4 tons per
hectare (rough basis) is up 7 percent from last year and the highest on
record. According to Philippine government sources, generally good
weather and the expanded use of hybrid varieties accounted for the
bumper yields in 2003/04. Area and yields have increased steadily over
the past 5 years in response to strong government support for rice
production. The Philippine Department of Agriculture has set the goal of
attaining 97 to 100 percent rice self-sufficiency within a few years.
*(For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)*

# Philippines: Higher Corn Area and Production 

Philippine corn production for 2003/04 is estimated at 4.8 million tons,
up 0.4 million or 10 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last
year's revised crop of 4.4 million tons. The revision is based on data
from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. The estimated area of 2.5
million hectares is up 5 percent from last year and signals a reversal
in the strong downward trend in planted area since 1990/91. Corn yield
is estimated at 1.95 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last year and
the highest on record. Favorable weather in the last quarter of 2003
more than compensated for crop losses from typhoons that hit Luzon last
summer. Yields were also boosted by the increasing use of Bt and hybrid
corn varieties, which now account for about 20 percent of total corn
area. Strong feed demand and high domestic prices are likely to
encourage farmers to plant more hybrids next year. *(For more
information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)*

# 

# Brazil: Soybean Crop Forecast Lower, But Still a Record

Brazil's 2003/04 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 59.5
million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, but up 7.0 million or 13
percent from last year's bumper harvest. Soybean area is estimated at a
record 21.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 2.9
million or 16 percent from last year. The cumulative rainfall pattern
during the soybean crop's vegetative and reproductive growth periods
(Oct-Feb) has been near-to-above normal in virtually the entire growing
region. However, periods of deficient or excessive rainfall did occur at
mid-season, and are negatively affecting current crop prospects. Of
note, January and February were dry months in important southern growing
states, while February was excessively wet in localized areas of Mato
Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. Rainfall records indicate that the current dry
conditions gripping Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana are similar to those
experienced in 2001/02, while in Rio Grande do Sul season-to-date
showers have been well in excess of that analogue year. It should be
noted that the 2001/02 season was especially harsh in Rio Grande do Sul,
where drought conditions reduced yield prospects in the Dec-Feb period,
and were then followed by excessive rains in March. As a result, soybean
yields in Rio Grande do Sul fell 25 percent in 2001/02. March conditions
are critical to determining the yield potential of the southern crop,
and USDA is actively monitoring crop progress. USDA acknowledges that
crop yield potential in 2003/04 in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana is
similar-to-worse than 2001/02, while yield potential in Rio Grande do
Sul is above that achieved in 2001/02. In the important Center-West
region, heavy late-season rains were received in many recent growing
seasons and localized yield losses were common. However, the overall
consequence of the rains regarding production losses has been modest.
The influence of Asian rust on the current crop is unknown, and will
take time to evaluate. Despite last season's massive outbreak in Mato
Grosso and Bahia, where government estimates indicate that 3.4 million
tons of soybeans were lost (15 percent and 30 percent of the crop
respectively), national crop production actually exceeded expectation.
On a national basis, crop area and yield potential were seriously
underestimated in the Feb-March period last year. In post-harvest
months, typical 2002/03 soybean forecasts increased 3.0-4.5 million
tons. Prior to recent negative weather events, USDA analysis indicated
crop potential in 2003/04 was higher than 61.0 million tons under
favorable weather and low pest or disease-related conditions. Its
season-long forecasts for soybean production have therefore been
conservative. Its current estimate includes the assessment that several
million tons of soybean crop losses have occurred this year owing to
adverse weather and rust. *(For more information, contact Michael Shean
at 202-720-7366.)*

# China: Peanut Production Lower Than Expected in 2003/04

China's 2003/04 peanut crop is estimated at 13.4 million tons, down 1.7
million or 11 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last
year's record crop. The revision is based on official production data
from the National Bureau of Statistics. The estimated area of 5.1
million hectares is unchanged from last month, but up 4 percent from
last year. Peanut yield for 2003/04 dropped to an estimated 2.62 tons
per hectare, down 13 percent from last year and the lowest since the
drought-reduced crop of 1997/98. According to local reports, unusually
wet weather from August through October 2003, caused significant damage
to maturing peanuts in several important peanut-producing provinces on
the North China Plain, particularly Henan and Shandong. Harvesting was
delayed in many areas, and excessive wetness hurt both yield and
quality. *(For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at
202-690-0133.)*

# India: 2003/04 Soybean Production Estimate Revised Higher

India\'s 2003/04 soybean production is estimated at 6.8 million tons, up
0.6 million or 10 percent from last month and up 2.8 million or 70
percent from last year. This current estimate exceeds the previous
production record of 6.0 million tons set in the 1998/99 season
resulting from the previous record area of 6.35 million hectares. The
current year soybean area is estimated at 6.45 million hectares,
unchanged from last month, but up 0.78 million or 14 percent from last
year's drought-reduced crop. In October 2003, the Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD) declared that the 2003 Southwest Monsoon was favorable.
The IMD determined that India received 102 percent of normal
precipitation for the period June 1-September 30, 2003. Indian soybean
industry contacts report ample crushing supplies as evidence of the high
production level. Virtually all of India's soybean production occurs
during the Kharif season. Kharif soybean planting occurs June-July
followed by harvest in Sep-Oct. (*For more information, contact Jim
Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

# India: Large Rapeseed Crop Seen During February Field Travel

India\'s 2003/04 rapeseed production is forecast at 6.2 million tons, up
0.4 million or 7 percent from last month and up 2.6 million or 72
percent from last year. This forecast is second only to 1996/97 when a
record 6.9 million hectares produced a record 6.9 million ton crop.
Current year rapeseed area is forecast at 6.6 million hectares,
unchanged from last month, but up 1.8 million or 38 percent from last
year's drought-reduced crop. Favorable levels of precipitation occurred
during the important August 15 to November 15, 2003 time period, which
encouraged farmers to plant. Additionally, field travel in February 2004
revealed a crop in favorable condition, heavy with pods and seed. (*For
more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-408), March 10,
2004.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, prepared
this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be
released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on

April 8, 2004.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director (Acting) Paul Provance 202-720-0873
lindeman@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds & Cotton Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881
provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

& Chile

Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

Mexico, Central America,

& Caribbean Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

Canada & Western Europe Jim Tringe 202-720-0882 tringej@fas.usda.gov

Central Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Turkey, Middle East,

& Southwest Asia Maria Anulacion 202-690-0139 anulacion@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine,

& other FSU States Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

China, Koreas, Japan, & Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

India, & Pakistan

Central & Southern Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

United States Rao Achutuni 202-690-0140 achutuni@fas.usda.gov

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.gov