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| # **Standard Format Report**                                          |
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| # **1. Session 2.3**                                                  |
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| # **2. Reduci                                                         |
| ng Risks Through Effective Early Warnings of Severe Weather Hazards** |
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| # **3. Summary of the session's presentations and discussions**       |
|                                                                       |
| > The first talk gave a general, conceptual background on the weather |
| > forecast process from observations through the assimilation of      |
| > data, to numerical modelling using ensembles of forecasts. The      |
| > focus of this talk was on sources of uncertainty in weather         |
| > forecast process. Explained scientific need for using probabilistic |
| > forecast approach.                                                  |
| >                                                                     |
| > **The second presentation focussed on probabilistic weather         |
| > forecast products that are necessary to convey the forecast         |
| > information to the users. Presented examples for early warning of   |
| > severe weather, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and    |
| > extreme temperature. Explained why users need to utilize the        |
| > probabilistic forecast format. This presentation motivated the use  |
| > of probabilistic information from the users\' point of view, using  |
| > a simple economic cost-loss model.\                                 |
| > **                                                                  |
| >                                                                     |
| > **The third presentation provided an illustration of the tropical   |
| > cyclone forecast process, including the role of the human           |
| > forecaster as a link between weather forecasting and the users      |
| > including emergency managers, the media and finally the public.     |
| > Examples of early warnings of a probabilistic nature were provided, |
| > offering a link to the fourth presentation.**                       |
|                                                                       |
| **The fourth talk through some examples, described level of threat    |
| and socio-economic background. Presented current tropical storm       |
| mitigation practices. Discussed achievements and good practices, and  |
| highlight where system could be improved. What were the lessons that  |
| can be carried over to other parts of the globe. The emphasis was on  |
| linking the weather forecast information with the emergency           |
| decision-makers and preparation processes on the ground, from the     |
| emergency management point of view.**                                 |
|                                                                       |
| > The last presentation described the mechanism and procedures for    |
| > integrating early weather forecasts and other early disaster        |
| > information in emergency management at the central and field level  |
| > in Japan, with special focus on giving advice/assistance to         |
| > decision makers (e.g. City mayors). Provided suggestions of how     |
| > losses could be reduced or avoided by combining probabilistic       |
| > weather forecasts with other disaster-related information.          |
| > Commented on possibilities for adapting similar procedures in other |
| > regions of the globe.                                               |
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| # **Primary issues**                                                  |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Inadequate resources for disaster mitigation caused by severe   |
|     weather hazards;**                                                |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Meteorological and hydrological forecasts need improved         |
|     accuracy, longer-ranges and quantification of uncertainty;**      |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Lack of qualified meteorological, hydrological and disaster     |
|     prevention and preparedness personnel, especially in developing   |
|     countries and SIDS;**                                             |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Insufficient attention to non-structural (public awareness,     |
|     information sharing, etc.) mitigation measures to cope with       |
|     severe weather events;**                                          |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Inadequate institutional and infrastructural practices for      |
|     coordination and capacity-building at national, regional and      |
|     international levels to cope with the negative impact of severe   |
|     weather risks on economic growth and human progress;**            |
|                                                                       |
| -   **Absence or inadequacy of a National Disaster Management Policy  |
|     that includes effective local dissemination of information to     |
|     cope with the menace of meteorological and hydrological disasters |
|     in many developing countries;**                                   |
|                                                                       |
| ```{=html}                                                            |
| <!-- -->                                                              |
| ```                                                                   |
| -   **Failure to arouse community consciousness for all stakeholders  |
|     involved in severe weather-related disaster mitigation process    |
|     and measures in many developing countries.**                      |
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| **5. a) Suggested targets and indicators to measure accomplishments** |
|                                                                       |
| > *Early Warnings are Critical for Natural Disaster Prevention -* One |
| > of the most effective measures for disaster preparedness is a       |
| > well-functioning early warning system that delivers accurate and    |
| > *user-friendly* information in a timely manner. Therefore, we must: |
|                                                                       |
| (a) Develop an integrated network for sharing of enhanced             |
|     observations (GEOSS), model forecasts and products at the         |
|     regional and global levels within the framework of WMO, by 2018;  |
|                                                                       |
| (b) Increase accuracy of existing forecasts of severe weather events  |
|     by 10 % by 2015;                                                  |
|                                                                       |
| (c) Issue probabilistic forecasts of severe weather conditions up to  |
|     5 days in all regions, by 2015, to allow appropriate response;    |
|                                                                       |
| (d) Increase investment in awareness programmes related to the risks  |
|     and consequences of natural hazards for decision-makers,          |
|     emergency managers, media, NGOs, public and other stakeholders by |
|     15 % by 2010, for prompt and effective response at the national   |
|     to community levels;                                              |
|                                                                       |
| (e) Educate stakeholders *annually* on proper interpretation of       |
|     forecasts, advisories, warnings and other meteorological and      |
|     hydrological information; and                                     |
|                                                                       |
| (f) Ensure dependable and effective dissemination of nowcasts,        |
|     forecasts, advisories, watches and warnings in real-time to       |
|     decision-makers including emergency managers, media, general      |
|     public and other stakeholders in most countries, no later than    |
|     2010.                                                             |
|                                                                       |
| > b\) Existing indicators with reference                              |
| >                                                                     |
| > WMO Sixth long-term Plan (2005 -- 2012); Global Atmospheric         |
| > Research Programme (THORPEX); Coordinated Observation and           |
| > Prediction of the Earth System (COPES); GEOSS Draft International   |
| > Plan (2008 -- 2017); ISDR; Johannesburg Plan of Implementation      |
| > (2002 -- 2016)                                                      |
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| 6.  **Partnerships**                                                  |
|                                                                       |
| > **NMHSs (National Meteorological and Hydrological Services); WMO    |
| > Tropical Cyclone Regional Bodies; ISDR; UNESCAP; ADPC; ADRC; SPREP; |
| > CDERA; EC (European Commission); SOPAC; SPREP;**                    |
| >                                                                     |
| > **IOC (Indian Ocean Commission), International Emergency Managers   |
| > Association; THORPEX; COPES**                                       |
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| 7.  **Any other relevant and brief comments**                         |
|                                                                       |
| > **WMO is invited to organize Regional and International Workshops   |
| > on "Probabilistic Weather Forecasts" for operational forecasters at |
| > regional and international levels;**                                |
| >                                                                     |
| > **An International Emergency Managers Association in cooperation    |
| > with WMO is urged to prepare a global guideline for education and   |
| > training in Disaster Emergency Communities for use of probabilistic |
| > forecasts; and**                                                    |
| >                                                                     |
| > **Within the framework of THORPEX and with the contribution from    |
| > Regional Disaster Preparedness Agencies, to establish an            |
| > organization with a view to coordinating among forecast producers   |
| > and users or Disaster Management Communities in the respective      |
| > region.**                                                           |
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| **8. a) Name, affiliation and contacts of presenters and titles of    |
| presentations**                                                       |
|                                                                       |
| > Dr Zoltan TOTH (National Weather Service, USA) (E-mail:             |
| > <zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>; Tel No. + 1 301 763 8000 ext. 7596; Fax     |
| > No. + 1 301 763 8545): ***The main components of weather forecast   |
| > systems***                                                          |
|                                                                       |
| Mr Kenneth MYLNE (MetOffice, UK) (E-mail:                             |
| <Ken.Mylne@metoffice.gov.uk>; Tel No. + 44 1392 886070; Fax No. + 44  |
| 1392 885681): ***Probabilistic weather forecast products***           |
|                                                                       |
| Dr Jose Maria RUBIERA TORRES (Cuba Meteorological Service) (E-mail:   |
| pron@met.inf.cu; Tel No. + 53 7 867 0708; Fax No. + 53 7 866 8010):   |
| ***Early warnings for*** ***hurricanes***                             |
|                                                                       |
| Dr M Alimullah MIYAN (IUBAT, Bangladesh) (E-mail: <miyan@iubat.edu>;  |
| Tel No. + 880 2 891 8412): ***Tropical cyclone disaster mitigation in |
| Bangladesh***                                                         |
|                                                                       |
| Mr Kenzo HIROKI (UNESCO-PWFRI Centre, Japan) (E-mail:                 |
| <hiroki@waterforum.jp>; Tel No. + 81 3 5212 1645): ***Integrated use  |
| of weather forecasts and other disaster information for effective     |
| emergency response and preparedness in Japan***                       |
|                                                                       |
| b\) Name, affiliation and contact of persons filling in the form      |
|                                                                       |
| Mr Katsuhiro ABE (WMO)(E-mail: <kabe@wmo.int>; Tel No. + 41 22 7308   |
| 453; Fax No. + 41 22 7308 128) and Mr John GAYNOR (NWS/NOAA, USA)     |
| (E-mail: <John.Gaynor@noaa.gov>; Tel No. + 1 301 713 0460; Fax No. +  |
| 1 301 713 3515                                                        |
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