**Session No. 5**

**Session Title: Warning Systems**

**Time:** Three Hours

**Objectives:**

At the conclusion of this session, students should be able to:

1.  Define warning systems and explain how they fit into the emergency
    management process.

2.  Discuss the technology used in warning systems.

3.  Discuss the myths of warning systems.

4.  Discuss the need for the emergency manager to build a technical
    competence in warning systems.

5.  Explain the purpose and scope of national, local, and private
    warning systems including:

-   The Emergency Alert System

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-   The National Weather Service weather warning system

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-   The Emergency Management Weather Information Network

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-   Community 911 operations

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-   DCC and CAN

    1.  Discuss organizational problems and warning systems

**Scope:** A major issue for emergency managers at the local level is
notifying of the community of a disaster. This session will highlight
current community alert systems that have been implemented at the
national, state, and local level. Systems such as the emergency
broadcast system and telephone alert systems will be examined. The
session also provides an overview of the National Weather Service NOAA
Weather Radio Network and FEMA's Emergency Alert System. Private warning
systems are included to provide a comparison with government warning
systems.

**Readings:**

## **Instructor** 

## 

FEMA. *Emergency Alert System: A Program Guide for State and Local
Jurisdictions.* Washington, D.C. 1996.

Mann, Brett W. "Emergency Alert," *Emergency Preparedness Digest*, April
-- June 1997.

Mileti, Dennis S. and John H. Sorensen, *Communication of Emergency
Public Warnings: A Social Science Perspective and State of the Art
Assessment*. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory for FEMA,
1990.

Oyen, Richard "911: The System Behind the Phone Number." In Steven
Alter. *Information Systems: A Management Perspective.* The
Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company: Menlo Park, CA. 1996. Pp. 690 -
692.

## **Student**

FEMA. *Emergency Alert System: A Program Guide for State and Local
Jurisdictions.* Parts I -- III. Washington, D.C. 1996. (See Readings:
5Warning Systems---a Word document)

Mann, Brett W., "Emergency Alert," *Emergency Preparedness Digest*,
April -- June 1997.

Mileti, Dennis S. and John H. Sorensen, Chapter 3, "Building and
Evaluating a Warning System," and Chapter 4, "Organizational Aspects of
Warning Systems" in *Communication of Emergency Public Warnings: A
Social Science Perspective and State of the Art Assessment*. Oak Ridge,
TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory for FEMA, 1990.

Oyen, Richard "911: The System Behind the Phone Number." In Steven
Alter. *Information Systems: A Management Perspective.* The
Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company: Menlo Park, CA. 1996. Pp. 690 -
692.

> **References**

Burkhart, Ford N. *Media, Emergency Warnings, and Citizen Response*.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991.

Department of Commerce. *Automated Local Flood Warning Systems
Handbook*. Silver Spring, MD: NOAA. 1997.

Department of Commerce. *The Fort Collins Flash Flood of July 28, 1997.*
Service assessment initial report. Silver Spring, MD: The Service, 1997.

Rogers, George O. and John H. Sorensen. "Diffusion of Emergency Warning:
Comparing Empirical and Simulation Results," *Risk Analysis*, Edited by
C. Zervos, New York: Plenum, 1991.

Rogers, George O. and John H. Sorensen. "Diffusion of Emergency
Warnings," *The Environmental Professional.* Vol. 10 1988.

**Remarks:**

**Class Assignment**

***Student Reports on Class Assignment from Session #4 Spatial Analysis:
"FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map Case Study"***

\[Review the "FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map Case Study" and answer the
following questions. Be prepared to discuss your responses to the
questions at the next class.\]

-   How should the digital Flood Maps be used in emergency management?

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-   What other layers of information would be useful in addition to the
    flood zone Q3 maps?

![](media/image1.png){width="6.495833333333334in"
height="5.0152777777777775in"}

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height="4.638194444444444in"}

> **Question for the Class:** The FEMA A flood zones are displayed on
> the map above. How could the emergency manager use this type of
> display in emergency planning or response?
>
> A GIS allows the user to select features in a layer (residents) that
> intersect with other layer (A Flood Zone). The attached list of
> residents were drawn from the above display using the GIS. The
> attached is a list of residents whose homes are in an A Flood Zone.
> How could the emergency manager use this list?

**5.1 Warning Systems: What Are They and How Do They Fit into the
Emergency Management Process?**

Effective response to a disaster includes the timely warning of the
local community and the region of a potential hazard. National Weather
Service weather storm warnings provide an excellent example of how the
emergency management community has initiated efforts to effectively
identify potential hazards, developed a classification system for these
hazards, and implemented a public notification system. The National
Weather Service warning system focusing on flood, tornado, earthquake,
and hurricane hazards provides an excellent model for state and local
governments, non-profit organizations, and private sector operations.
Complementing the National Weather Service weather warning system, the
Emergency Alert System, allows the emergency management community,
through effective planning and coordination, to use warning systems to
protect life and property.

A warning system is "a means of getting information about an impending
emergency, communicating that information to those who need it, and
facilitating good decisions and timely response by people in danger."
(Mileti and Sorensen 1990.)

The most effective structure for a warning system is that of an
integrated system. An integrated system has two qualities that make it
unique. First, to ensure preparedness, the warning system is composed of
three relatively separate subsystems: the detection, management, and
response subsystems. Second, integration requires that sound
relationships among these subsystems be developed and maintained.
(Mileti and Sorensen 1990.)

-   *Detection:* monitoring of the natural, technological, and civil
    environmental that could cause a disaster *including collecting,
    collating, assessing, and analyzing* information about the
    environments. This part of the system makes a prediction about the
    occurrence. The output is transmitted to the management part of the
    system.

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-   *Management:* This part of the system integrates the information
    from the detection subsystem and warns the public. Examples would
    involve local emergency management operations centers or the federal
    National Weather Service severe weather warning systems.

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-   *Response:* Individuals respond to a warning message. They bring
    their own interpretations of the warning.

Mileti and Sorensen (1990) also note that the warning system can be
perceived by divergent viewpoints including the detector, the manager,
and the public. How they perceive the effectiveness of the system has a
great deal to do with their perspective (organizational membership and
professional specialization, roles, and responsibilities).

> **Question for the Class:** A primary goal of any warning system is to
> alert and notify organizations and the public of a potential disaster.
> Why would the warning system be perceived as inadequate by a local
> emergency management organization or the public? (See Mileti and
> Sorensen Chapter 3 for a discussion of alternative goals of
> audiences.)
>
> *Geographic Barriers: The warning system does not reach the entire
> community. Some neighborhoods are outside the range of a siren
> system.*
>
> *Language Barriers: In some cases the warning is provided in written
> or spoken form and may not be understood by members of the community.
> Many communities have a broad ethnic base. Some members of these
> communities may not speak English.*
>
> *Technical Barriers: Some warning systems are transmitted over radio,
> cable, or television. Members of the community may not have these
> communications systems.*
>
> *Personal Barriers: Many communities use a telephone alert system to
> notify the public of an emergency. Unlisted phone numbers may not be
> included in the notification system group to be called.*

##### 5.2 Warning Systems: An Overview of the Technology

Warning systems have been a part of our emergency management system for
many years. Initial efforts centered on radio broadcast warning systems.
Today, warning systems include more sophisticated radio networks, cable
over-ride systems, phone messaging systems, and sirens. The following
materials highlight several warning systems from a national perspective
(Emergency Alert System), the National Weather Service's weather alert
messages, and private sector alert systems.

***Suggestion to the Instructor:** A presentation on several
emergency-warning systems would provide the students with specific
examples of the type of systems available. Students should be encouraged
to review written materials on both the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and
the National Weather Service-NOAA Weather Radio Network. The following
discussions of the Emergency Alert System and the National Weather
Service-NOAA Weather Radio Network are available as student readings,
which are a part of this course. Class discussion may then be used to
clarify the purpose and scope of these systems and the issues such
systems present to the emergency manager. (See 5-Warning Systems in the
Readings.)*

***Note:*** *Chapter 1 from Mileti and Sorensen (1990) provides an
excellent overview of warning systems by type of risk. Complement this
presentation on warning systems with a review of the warning systems
used for some of the risks discussed in Mileti's research.*

**5.3 Myths of Warning Systems**

-   The public simply does not panic in response to warnings of
    impending disasters.

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-   The public rarely if ever gets too much emergency information in an
    official warning.

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-   The effectiveness of people's responses to warnings is not
    diminished by what has come to be labeled the "cry wolf" syndrome,
    if they have been informed of the reasons for previous "misses."

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-   Most people simply do not respond with protective actions to warning
    messages as soon as they hear their first warning.

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-   Most people will not blindly follow instructions in a warning
    message unless the basis for the instruction is given in the message
    and that basis makes common sense.

> **Question for the Class:** Ask the class to discuss these myths.
>
> What actions can the emergency manager take to minimize the adverse
> impact of these myths?

**5.4** **Interpreting Scientific Information**

In a warning system, emergency managers must become technically and
scientifically informed in order to be able to make warning decisions on
the basis of received scientific and technical information. It is
critical that the emergency manager builds technical competence into
warning systems so as to understand what actions should be taken in an
emergency.

> **Question for the Class:** Other than training, what other options
> can the emergency manager take to ensure that effective decisions are
> made from the scientific information received?

-   *Identifying volunteers who can provide advice on the disaster.*

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-   *Contract for expertise from a private company, government agency,
    and university.*

### 

5.  **Alert Systems: National, Local, and Private**

***National Warning Systems (EAS and NOAA Weather Radio Network)***

The following provide an illustration of several national warning
systems.

### *Emergency Alert System (EAS)*

### 

### \[This information was provided by FEMA. The full text is available from [**http://www.fema.gov**](http://www.fema.gov/).\]

***Note:** A 9 ½ minute video of the EAS is available as a part of this
course. It is suggested that it be shown before class discussion of this
system.*

The EAS was established by the FCC and includes local cable systems and
over 13,000 individual radio and TV broadcasters to voluntarily organize
and plan for this purpose. In November 1994, the FCC adopted the
Emergency Alert System (EAS) to replace the Emergency Broadcast System.
Benefits of the new EAS include:

1.  Any transmission means can be used to send and receive EAS alerts
    and tests (sitcom, telephone, radio, pagers, etc.).

2.  EAS equipment can be programmed for unique events and specific
    areas.

3.  Simple designations for EAS communications facilities.

4.  Automatic visual and audio messages on broadcast stations and cable
    systems.

5.  Interface with computers.

6.  Time comparison of EAS messages to avoid duplicate or outdated
    messages.

7.  Multiple monitoring of sources for EAS messages.

8.  Digital storage and retrieval of messages.

9.  Weekly tests at any time and monthly on-air tests for all EAS
    communications facilities in State or EAS Local Area.

10. Display of all incoming EAS messages on EAS equipment.

11. Use any FM or TV sub-carriers for transmitting EAS messages.

12. Interoperability with future National Weather Service and FEMA
    warning systems.

13. Automatic operation of equipment.

### *National Weather Service---NOAA Weather Radio Network*

\[The following description was drawn from the National Weather Service
Internet at [http://nws.gov](http://nws.gov/); it is also available in
the Student Readings section of this course.\]

***Note:*** *The National Weather Service NOAA Weather Radio Network and
the Emergency Managers Weather Information Network provide an excellent
example of the "management subsystem." This program provides ongoing
communication with public agencies including emergency management, the
public, and private businesses. The means of communication is adapted to
suit the target audience. Backing up the Weather Radio Network is a
large system of sensors that monitor weather patterns including the GOES
satellite, local airports, and off shore weather monitoring stations.*

The National Weather Service was an early contributor to the emergency
warning system. Today the National Weather Service receives weather data
from ground based weather sensors and remote sensing data systems. The
data is assessed and distributed to a broad group of users.

-   Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories

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-   Tsunami Watches/Warning

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-   Local Marine Forecasts

### [emergency managers weather information network (national weather service)]{.smallcaps}

### 

### \[The following description was adapted from information provided by the National Weather Service: [**http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oso/oso1/oso12/document/wintip.htm**](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oso/oso1/oso12/document/emwin.htm)\]

-   Radio---formerly called the Wireless Weather Information Network
    (WWIN)

-   Internet---the Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN)

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-   Satellite---currently on GOES 8, GOES 9, Galaxy 4, etc.

***Note:** These three methods are intended simply to provide a basic
level of data support to users who currently have none or who can afford
very little. Each of these methods has significant limitations. Be aware
that there are better methods available, at higher cost to the end-user,
including various more robust commercial weather distribution systems.
EMWIN is a supplement to other NWS dissemination services, which include
NOAA Weather Radio (NWR), NOAA Weather Wire System (NWWS), Family of
Services (FOS), NOAAPORT, and NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service
(NIDS).*

EMWIN is a low-cost method for receiving National Weather Service's
information on a wireless data system. EMWIN presents the information
directly on your home or office computer in a user-friendly graphic
display. Simple mouse clicks immediately retrieve the latest weather and
flood warnings, watches, forecasts, statements, observations and other
data in text format, along with a sub-set of weather graphics including
the national radar summary, and some satellite imagery. In all, over
6,500 products are available. Users may set various alarms to be alerted
to particular information, whether for their local area or from adjacent
areas.

Local Weather

Current hourly reports---weather condition reports for each state,
issued every hour.

State forecasts---twice daily for each state and cover 1-5 day
forecasts.

-   Local forecasts---city-specific and covers 1-3 days; not all sites
    issue this.

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-   Zone forecasts---twice daily for individual county/zones in every
    state.

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-   Short term forecasts (NOWcasts)---several times per day and covers
    next 4 to 8 hours, not all sites issue this.

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-   Public information area---current record reports, public information
    statements, recreational reports, and additional state information
    reports.

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-   Climatic data---historical comparisons, running totals for precip,
    etc. Issued daily for each state.

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-   Coastal, river, and hydrologic information---various hydro reports,
    some water related recreation reports.

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-   Special weather statements---additional details on current
    conditions. Can give more detailed information on any current severe
    weather in each state.

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-   Watches, warnings, and advisories

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-   Tornado

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-   Severe Thunderstorm

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-   Flood

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-   Flash Flood

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-   Hurricane Local Statement

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-   Winter Storm

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-   Special Marine Warning

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-   Severe Weather Statement

National Items

Agricultural Summaries (national and international)

Agricultural Weather---(discontinued and transferred to private sector)

Flood Summary

Hurricane Reports

Air Stagnation Report---(was the National Weather Summary---discontinued
1 Oct 1995 and transferred to private sector)

Earthquake and Tsunami reports

Afire Weather---(discontinued and transferred to private sector)

Selected cities temp and precipitation tables

***Local Warning Systems: Community 911 Operations***

Alter describes the system behind the 911 operation. What are the goals
of this system? What are the problems inherent in this system? How does
the 911 system compare with efforts to provide warning to the public?

***Note to the Instructor:** This is a perfect place for the instructor
to invite a manager from the 911 operation to visit the class.*

> **A Question for the Class:** Communities are looking for effective
> ways of communicating with the public in the event of a chemical or
> natural disaster. The Community Alert Network and Dialogic
> Communications Corporation are commercial enterprises that have a mass
> dialing capacity. This means that they have the capacity to relay
> emergency information to the public in just a brief time. An advantage
> of this type of system is that it allows the emergency management
> agency to identify a specific part of the community in the case of a
> chemical incident. Since these commercial operations have access only
> to listed phone numbers, only a portion of the local population would
> be notified. What do members of the class see as advantages and
> limitations of these phone alert systems?
>
> *The phone notification systems provide the following in an
> emergency:*
>
> *Advantages:*

-   *Quick notification of an incident to a controlled geographic area.*

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-   *Notification of an incident limited to individuals affected -- the
    activities of the larger population is not affected.*

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-   *The message can be customized for the event and even to specific
    neighborhoods.*

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-   *The technology is not complex and is easy to customize for a
    jurisdiction.*

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-   *Contractors are available to run this function for emergency
    managers. Not many jurisdictions would be capable of including this
    activity in their operations.*

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-   *The receipt of a message by a household can be verified.*

> *Disadvantages:*

-   *Despite the large number of lines that a company may have, it does
    take time to make individual calls to those affected by an incident.
    Remember, once the call is made, the receiver must listen to the
    message (which could be 30 seconds or more).*

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-   *The cost of the service can be significant. Many jurisdictions
    could not afford this notification system unless there were a
    private operation underwriting the cost of the service.*

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-   *The cost of this service can be more than just a charge for each
    call. Ongoing operational charges should be anticipated.*

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-   *The biggest limitation of this system is the accuracy of the phone
    records. In many jurisdictions, local phone companies do not make
    resident and business numbers available; thus the directory database
    is often out of date.*

> What alternative does the local community have in alerting the
> community to a chemical incident or a natural disaster?

-   *Cable override*

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-   *Sirens*

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-   *Individual police officers providing neighborhood notification*

***Private Notification Systems***

*Community Alert Network, Inc. (CAN)*

\[This information was taken from CAN's Web site.\]

The Community Alert Network (CAN) provides a computer-driven telephone
warning and personnel recall service for use by emergency management
professionals. CAN delivers the ability to call large numbers of people
and/or emergency response personnel in a short period of time using 100
telephone lines. The services of CAN are flexible enough to be used for
a broad range of different emergencies.

The unique services of CAN can be targeted to notify only the people who
need to be called with specific information of how to respond during a
particular emergency. CAN provides a computer-detailed printout of the
calls made following each emergency. CAN also provides a sophisticated
recall service whereby off-duty response teams can receive a
confidential message and answer a series of questions. CAN's bi-coastal
operation centers (Schenectady, New York, and Campbell, California)
provide reliable, off-site backup. An additional note: the campbell site
will soon be relocated to Reno, Nevada, for increased survivability and
security (see the CAN Newsletter for more details). For more information
on CAN see [http://www.can-intl.com](http://www.can-intl.com/).

*Dialogic Communications Corporation (DCC)*

DCC is a pioneer and established leader in interactive call processing
solutions for today's industry and government. DCC currently provides
over 700 clients with audio response unit technology and automated
emergency notification. DCC can address emergency and non-emergency
notification needs with a specialized line of notification products.

-   Communities at risk

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-   Victim notification

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-   Emergency staff recall

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-   Weather warnings

Audio Response Units (ARU's) provide an intelligent, automated way for
cable subscribers to access, retrieve or report information with their
home entertainment service via touch-tone telephone 24 hours a day, 7
days a week.

For further information on DCC see:
[http://www.dccusa.com](http://wwwdccusa.com/).

[case example:]{.smallcaps} [alert]{.smallcaps}

ALERT is an acronym for *automated local evaluation in real time.* It is
a method of using remote sensors in the field to transmit environmental
data to a central computer in real time. The standard was developed by
the National Weather Service in the 1970's and is used by many other
federal agencies. There are numerous types and manufacturers of ALERT
hardware and software, but they are all designed to meet a common set of
communications criteria. Because of this, most equipment and programs
are interchangable, which has allowed for competition to improve
performance and reduce cost. See the following Internet site for a list
of systems.

[http://www.alertsystems.org](http://www.alertsystems.org/)

A print-out of the Alert System Web page can be found in the Readings:
5alert-example.html.

### 5.6 Organizational Problems and Warning Systems

Mileti and Sorensen 1990 discusses several organizational issues
involving warning systems. Clarify with the class how these issues would
affect the public warning notices.

-   Interpretation dilemmas for organizations involved in the warning
    system. How do they ensure that the correct information is not
    distorted or lost in the system?

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-   Recognition of the event, the hazard, and the magnitude of the
    event. How do you verify that an incident is an emergency and avoid
    unnecessary false alarms?

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-   Sorting of relevant information in an event

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-   Clarification of authority of organizations involved in the warning
    system

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-   Lack of clarity on whom to notify

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-   Communication dilemmas

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-   Physiological ability to communicate

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-   Whom to notify---base decision on individual characteristics or
    geographic area---other criteria?

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-   Adverse consequences for the decision-maker

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-   Conflicting information

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-   Liability

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-   Cost of protective actions

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-   Personal consequences of a notification

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-   Feasibility: is it possible to carry out an effective warning?

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-   Expectations of those outside the warning system?

### *Coordination in Warning Systems*

It is critical for the emergency manager to coordinate with other
organizations in the warning system, especially to:

-   Understand the roles and responsibilities of other organizations.

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-   Establish clear lines of authority.

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-   Identify procedures that will be followed in a crisis.

***Organizational, Technological, and Social Issues***

The emergency manager should understand the type of issues that may
arise from a warning system. These include:

*Technical*

-   Monitoring and detection issues

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-   Communication hardware issues

*Organizational*

-   Conflicts among members of the system over their perceived domain

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-   Decision making including process or values

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-   Maintaining the warning system hardware and organizational support

*Societal*

-   Costs and benefits of the warning system

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-   Withholding warnings

The emergency manager must anticipate problems and develop a flexible
system that can address the technical, organizational, and social
issues, which arise. Efforts must be taken to design a system that can
respond effectively (i.e., in a timely manner and directed to the target
population) to different disasters.

> **Question for the Class:** Sirens located in a community may be
> activated to warn the local population to a variety of disasters.
> Discuss the type of disasters for which sirens would be suitable?

*Fires, severe weather storms, or chemical incidents.*

How could they be used in conjunction with other warning devices?

> Sirens are often used in conjunction with radio warnings, TV and cable
> override, and phone call-down systems.