Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/26/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** TH4119

TH4119

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Weekly Rice Price Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Rodrick McSherry, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy, Bangkok

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Exports prices reached another record high due mainly to a psychological
effect from the new government intervention program.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

**Indicative Prices (Week Ending Oct. 26):**

  ------------ -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------
  Thailand:                                                                      
  Export (FOB)                                                                   
  Prices for                                                                     
  various                                                                        
  grades of                                                                      
  rice                                                                           
  (USD/M.T.)                                                                     

               Exporter                                                 Period   
               Observations                                             Avg.     

               #1             #2     #3     #4     #5     #6     #7     CUR.     PRV.

  F WR 100 B   400            395    410    406    390    405    405    402      389

  WR 100 B     255            258    259    259    254    259    255    257      249

  PB 5%        254            262    262    257    263    265    250    259      255

  WR 5%        250            253    256    254    249    254    250    252      245

  WR 10%       248            248    252    251    247    252    245    249      241

  WR 15%       244            245    248    249    244    249    240    246      237

  WR 25%       238            241    244    244    231    235    235    238      230

  WR 35%       234            238    240    241    227    233    230    235      227

  A 1 SUP      207            208    \-     205    205    205    200    205      203

  A 1 SPEC     205            207    \-     202    203    \-     198    203      201

                                                                                 

  Source:                                                                        
  Average                                                                        
  actual                                                                         
  prices                                                                         
  received                                                                       
  from                                                                           
  exporters                                                                      
  ------------ -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------

**Market Tone**

Export prices for white rice were at another record high due mainly to a
psychological effect from the new government intervention program, which
will start next week (Nov.1) with higher intervention prices, about
1,300 baht/ton (roughly US\$ 32/MT) more for white rice paddy from the
previous year. Exportable supplies were reportedly limited by
speculative demand from local millers, as current domestic prices for
white rice are still lower than the intervention prices by about 200
Baht/ton (roughly US\$ 5/MT). Also, the current shipment of white rice
to fulfill the outstanding contract for Iraq and Iran has put upward
pressure on prices. However, the price surge is expected to level off
soon as the prices are too high to create new order demand. Unlike white
rice, current prices for fragrant rice reportedly satisfied Chinese
buyers.

The following are reported rice exports (as is basis)**:**

  ------------ -------------- -------------- ------------- ---------------
  WEEK ENDING  QUANTITY       4-WK AVG       YEAR TO DATE  YEAR AGO

               (MT)           (MT)           (TMT)         (TMT)

  SEP 5        96,277         126,887        5,054         3,277

  SEP 12       112,729        123,755        5,167         3,406

  SEP 19       174,336        135,781        5,342         3,510

  SEP 26       221,118        151,131        5,563         3,524

  OCT 3        194,347        175,648        5,757         3,708

  OCT 10       198,009        196,953        5,955         3,797

  OCT 17       214,774        207,062        6,170         3,912

  OCT 24       208,260        203,847        6,378         4,035
  ------------ -------------- -------------- ------------- ---------------

Note on data: Export figures since March 22, 2002, do not include
fragrant rice. The authority to report fragrant rice exports was moved
from the Thai Board of Trade to the Ministry of Commerce's Office of
Commodity Standards, which does not release official fragrant rice
export data. FAS/BKK will report only official export numbers from the
Board of Trade for non-fragrant and from the Office of Commodity
Standards for fragrant rice when available, but the reader should bear
in mind the difference between the data.

Unofficial exports (excluding fragrant rice) for Oct. 18-24, 2004
totaled 208,260 tons, down 6,514 tons from the previous week's total and
up 4,412 tons from the four-week moving average of 203,847 tons. Exports
during Jan. 1 -- Oct. 24, 2004 totaled 6,378,033 tons, compared with
4,035,179 tons during the same period in 2003.

According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce,
total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during Jan. 1- Oct. 18,
2004, amounted to 7,816,289 tons, up 39 percent from 5,628,574 tons in
the previous year.

**Weekly Rice Sales**

Private registered rice export sales for the period of Oct. 4-8, Oct.
11-15, and\
Oct. 18-22, 2004 are as follows:

  -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  Movement (MT)        Oct. 4-8         Oct. 11-15       Oct. 18-22

                                                         

  weekly sales         138,290          194,022          248,347

  4 week sum           766,337          756,551          875,435

  4 week mov. avg.     191,584          189,138          218,859

  Total weekly sales   6,744,288        6,938,310        7,186,657
  -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------

End of Report.