**7:00-8:00 Registration**

7:15-8:00 Poster Set-up

**8:00-8:30 Welcome and Opening Remarks**

#### 

Mr. James Laver, Director, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

> Dr. Hampton Shirer, Associate Head, Department of Meteorology / The
> Pennsylvania State
>
> University

Mr. Paul Knight, Department of Meteorology / The Pennsylvania State
University

Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, NCEP/NWS/NOAA

**SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED)**

**Chairperson: Jae Schemm**

> 8:30-8:45 The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) / 1^st^ CTB Annual Meeting

####### Wayne Higgins

8:45-9:15 An Overview of New Developments with the CFS

*Suranjana Saha*

**9:15-10:30 POSTER SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS AND MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLES**

> 10:30-11:00 An Analysis of Subseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS and
> NASA NSIPP
>
> Coupled GCMs
>
> *Myong-In Lee, Siegfried Schubert, and Max Suarez*
>
> 11:00-11:30 Coupled Shock Initialization in the CFS Prediction System
>
> *Ben Kirtman*
>
> 11:30-12:00 Marine Stratus and its Relationship to Regional and
> Large-Scale Circulations: An
>
> Examination with the NCEP CFS Simulations
>
> *Pingping Xie, Wanqui Wang, Wayne Higgins and Phil Arkin*

**12:00-1:00 LUNCH**

**SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED), cont.**

**Chairperson: Jae Schemm**

> 1:00-1:30 Using GLDAS to Derive Optimal Land States for CFS/Noah
> Testing in the NOAA
>
> Climate Test Bed

*Jesse Meng, Kenneth Mitchell, and Helin Wei*

1:30-2:00 Evaluation of CFS-Tier2 Forecasts with Bias-Corrected SST

> *Jae Schemm, K. Seo, Q.Zhang and M. L'Heureux*

**SESSION 2: MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED)**

**Chairperson: Arun Kumar**

2:00-2:30 MM Ensembles for Week 1 and Week 2 Predictions

*Edward O'Lenic, Zoltan Toth and David Unger*

> 2:30-3:00 Multi-Model Ensembling for Seasonal-to-Interannual
> Prediction: From Simple

to Complex

*Lisa Goddard and Simon Mason*

**3:00-3:30 BREAK**

3:30-4:00 Performance-Based Probabilistic Multi-Model Climate Change
Scenarios

*Arthur Greene, Lisa Goddard and Upmanu Lall*

4:00-4:30 Multi-model Ensembles, Climate Attribution and Predictions

*Arun Kumar*

> 4:30-5:00 From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European
> Seasonal-to-Interannual
>
> Prediction Project

*Richard Graham*

5:00-5:30 APCC Multi-model Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System

*Chung-Kyu Park, Won-Tae Yun, and Hyun-Kyung Kim*

**5:30-7:00 ICE BREAKER RECEPTION & CASH BAR**

**7:00-10:00 NOAA CTB Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Executive
Session**

**7:15-8:00 Poster Set-up**

**SESSION 3: SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS (NOAA CLIMATE
TEST BED)**

**Chairperson: Huug van den Dool**

> 8:00-8:30 An Evaluation of the Probabilistic Information in the
> Multi-Model Ensemble
>
> Predictions.
>
> *David Unger, Peitao Peng, Suranjana Saha and Huug van den Dool*

8:30-9:00 Objective weighting of Multi-Method Seasonal Predictions

*Huug van den Dool, David Unger, Peitao Peng, Malaquias Pena and
Suranjana Saha*

**9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 2: CLIMATE MONITORING AND PREDICTION**

> 10:30-11:00 Consolidation of Predictions of Seasonal Climate by
> Several Atmospheric
>
> General Circulation Models at IRI

*Anthony Barnston, Lisa Goddard, Simon Mason, and Andrew Robertson*

11:00-11:30 The Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Skills from the Canadian
HFP

*Qiaobin Teng, Viacheslav Kharin, Francis Zwiers and Xuebin Zhang*

11:30-12:00 Experimental Weekly to Seasonal Ensemble Fire Danger
Forecasts

*J. Roads, P. Tripp, H. Juang, J. Wang, S. Chen and F. Fuioka*

**12:00-1:00 LUNCH**

**1:00 WELCOME BY DR. GRAHAM SPANIER**

**Pennsylvania State University President**

**SESSION 4: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES**

**Chairperson: Ake Johansson**

1:00-1:30 Major Climate Anomalies During 2005

*Gerald Bell*

1:30-2:00 Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin
Hurricane Season

*Philip Klotzbach and William Gray*

2:00-2:30 The Recent Increase in North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

*Muthuvel Chelliah and Gerry Bell*

2:30-3:00 U.S. Drought Highlights Since October 2004

*Douglas Lecomte*

**3:00-3:30 BREAK**

> 3:30-4:00 The Recent Evolution of the MJO and Description of an
> Experimental Global
>
> Tropics Hazard Assessment Activity at CPC
>
> *Jon Gottschalck, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, Marco Carrera, Klaus
> Weickman, Ed Berry, Klaus Weickman, Chet Schmitt, Brad Pugh, Wanqui
> Wang, Wassila Thiaw, Michelle L'Heureux, Qin Zhang, Wei Shi, Eric
> Blake, Richard Pasch and Huug van den Dool*

**SESSION 5: INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY**

**Chairperson: Chester Ropelewski**

4:00-4:30 Nonlinear Patterns of North American Climate Associated with
ENSO

*Aiming Wu, William Hsieh and Amir Shabbar*

4:30-5:00 Genesis Potential Index and ENSO

*Suzana Camargo, Kerry Emanuel and Adam Sobel*

5:00-5:30 A Journey to \`ENSO\' simulation at COLA

*V. Misra, L. Marx, Z. Guo, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, M. Zhao, D. Straus
and P. Dirmeyer*

**5:45-7:30 RECEPTION AT EMS MUSEUM, 1^st^ FLOOR DEIKE BUILDING**

**7:15-8:00 Poster Set-up**

**SESSION 6: DIURNAL AND INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY**

**Chairperson: Siegfried Schubert**

> 8:00-8:30 An Examination of the Diurnal Cycle in the NCEP Global
> Forecast System (GFS)
>
> Model Precipitation Forecasts

*Vernon Kousky, John Janowiak and Robert Joyce*

> 8:30-9:00 Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by Global
> Weather Prediction and
>
> Climate Models
>
> *Chidong Zhang, Min Dong, Harry Hendon, Kenneth Sperber, Eric Maloney,
> Andrew Marshall and Wanqui Wang*

**9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 3: INTRASEASONAL, INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL
VARIABILITY**

> 10:30-11:00 Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 22 Weather and
> Climate Forecasting Models:
>
> Encouraging Results, Common Biases, and Possible Missing Physics

*Jialin Lin*

> 11:00-11:30 Variability of the Atlantic ITCZ Associated with Amazon
> Rainfall and
>
> Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves

*Hui Wang and Rong Fu*

> 11:30-12:00 Tropical and Stratospheric Influences on Extratropical
> Variability and Predictability

*Matthew Newman and Prashant Sardeshmukh*

**12:00-1:00 Lunch**

**SESSION 7: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE**

**Chairperson: Muthuvel Chelliah**

1:00-1:30 Regional Expression of Multi-Decadal Variability in the Arctic

*Uma Bhatt, Igor Polyakov and Roman Bekryaev*

> 1:30-2:00 An Observational Analysis of Decadal Variations in the
> Madden Julian Oscillation

*Charles Jones and Leila Carvalho*

> 2:00-2:30 Variability and Trends in Global Precipitation as Revealed
> in an Analysis of the GPCP
>
> Data

*Chester Ropelewski and Phil Arkin*

> 2:30-3:00 Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in the Tropics in the
> Twentieth Century Coupled
>
> Climate Simulations
>
> *Hailan Wang and K.-M. Lau*

**3:00-3:30 BREAK**

**SESSION 8: TELECONNECTIONS**

**Chairperson: George Young**

3:30-4:00 The Link Between Tropical Precipitation and the North Atlantic
Oscillation

*Mathew Sapiano and Phillip Arkin*

4:00-4:30 Preferred Modes of Variability and Their Relationship with
Climate Change

*Seok-Woo Son and Sukyoung Lee*

4:30-5:00 A Global Convection Circulation Paradigm for the Annular Mode

*Ming Cai and R-C Ren*

> 5:00-5:30 Best Practices vs Misuse of PC Analysis (PCA) in the
> Analysis of Climate Variability

*Robert Livezey*

**6:00-9:00 WORKSHOP BANQUET**

**Banquet Speaker: Charles L. Hosler**

**7:15-8:00 Poster Set-Up**

**SESSION 9: HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY**

**Chairperson: Ken Davis**

8:00-8:30 An Experimental Real-Time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System
for the Western US

*Andrew Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier*

> 8:30-9:00 Mechanisms for Interannual Variations in Summer Streamflow
> from Headwater
>
> Catchments in Western Mexico

*David Gochis and Luis Brillo-Castillo*

**9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 4: HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY AND MONSOONS**

> 10:30-11:00 Intercomparison of US Land Surface Hydrologic Cycles from
> Multi-reanalyses and
>
> Models

*Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool*

> 11:00-11:30 Role of Sub-synoptic Variability of Soil Moisture in
> Seasonal Precipitation
>
> Variations

*Song Yang, S. Yoo, R. Yang, K. Mitchell, H. van den Dool and W.
Higgins*

> 11:30-12:00 Preliminary results from 50-year 10km resolution
> downscaling over California. 

*Masao Kanamitsu and Hideki Kanamaru*

**12:00-1:00 LUNCH**

**SESSION 10: MONSOONS AND WARM SEASON PREDICTION**

**Chairperson: Jenni Evans**

1:00-1:30 An Introduction to the Globally Unified Monsoon Index (GUMI)

*Xubin Zeng and Er Lu*

1:30-2:00 Northern Summer Circumglobal Teleconnection and
Tropics-Extratropics Interaction

*Bin Wang*

2:00-2:30 On the Nature of the Recent SW US Drought

*P. Pegion, S. Schubert, M. Suarez and R. Koster*

2:30-3:00 Impact of Tropical Easterly Waves on the North American
Monsoon

*Jennifer Adams and David Stensrud*

**3:00-3:30 BREAK**

> 3:30-4:00 Warm Season Diurnal Cycle Simulations Over North America --
> Sensitivities to Model
>
> Resolution
>
> *Myong-In Lee, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Julio Bacmeister, Phil
> Pegion, Isaac Held, Jeff Ploshay, Gabriel Lau, Arun Kumar, Hyun-Kyung
> Kim and Jae Schemm*
>
> 4:00-4:30 Warm Season Precipitation Prediction over North America
> Using the Eta Regional
>
> Climate Model

*Rongqian Yang and Kenneth Mitchell*

> 4:30-5:00 The Intra-Americas Sea Low-Level Jet: An Analysis of
> Atmospheric Sounding
>
> Observations

*Jorge Amador, Erick Rivera, Marcela Ulate and Chidong Zhang*

5:00-5:30 A June Monsoon

*David Mitchell, Dorothea Ivanova, and David Gochis*

**SESSION 11: RESULTS FROM NAME 2004**

**Chairperson: Wayne Higgins**

8:00-8:30 Radar Observations During NAME 2004 -- Data Products and
Initial Results

> *Timothy Lang, David Ahijevich, Rit Carbone, Rob Cifelli, Stephen
> Nesbitt, Gustavo Pereira and Steven Rutledge*
>
> 8:30-9:00 Main Results and Future Plans for the NAME Enhanced Rain
> Gauge Network
>
> (NERN)

*Christopher Watts, David Gochis, Julio Rodriguez and Jaime Garatuza -
Payan*

**9:00-9:30 Break**

> 9:30-10:00 A 50 Year Analysis of Rain Bearing Synoptic Features in
> Northern Mexico: Placing
>
> the NAME 2004 Summer Experiments in an Historical Context

*Arthur Douglas and Phillp Englehart*

10:00-10:30 NAME CPT Project -- Issues for Warm Season Prediction

*Jae Schemm and David Gutzler*

> 10:30-11:00 The Impact of the NAME 2004 Special Soundings on the NCEP
> Analyses and
>
> Forecasts

*Kingtse Mo, Eric Rogers, Wesley Ebisuzaki and Wayne Higgins*

> 11:00-11:30 Model Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle and Moisture Surges
> Along the Gulf of
>
> California During NAME

*E. Berbery and E. Becker*

> 11:30 -- 12:00 Assessment and Verification of North American Monsoon
> Quantitative
>
> Precipitation Forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting
> Model using 2004 NAME EOP Data

*David Gochis*

**12:00 CDPW WORKSHOP ENDS**

**12:00-5:00 Interim NAME (SWG 7.5) Meeting**

**Poster Guide for the 30^th^ Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
Workshop**

**The Pennsylvania State University**

**October 24-28, 2005**

P1.1 Climate Model Diagnoses from a Weather Modeler's Point of View

*Hualu Pan and Suranjana Saha*

######## 

P1.2 Impact of a New Land Surface Model on the NCEP Climate Forecast
System (CFS)

*Helin Wei, Sarah Lu, Kenneth Mitchell and Jesse Meng*

P1.3 Identification of El Nino's Dynamical Regime in the Climate
Forecast System

*Cecile Penland and Suranjana Saha*

P1.4 Comparison of the NCEP CFS Model Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon --
ENSO Relationship and Local Air-Sea Relationship With Observations

*Renguang Wu and Ben Kirtman*

P1.5 Simulation and Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability
in the CFS

*K. Pegion, D. Straus, B. Kirtman and J. Shukla*

P1.6 Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of CFS Simulations in the
Tropics

*Wilbur Chen*

P1.7 Indian Ocean SST Variability, Predictability and Prediction in the
NCEP Climate Forecast System

*Qin Zhang and Arun Kumar*

P1.8 Mean State and Predictive Skill of the NCEP Coupled Forecast System
in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

*Hohua Huang and Zeng-Zhen Hu*

P1.9 ENSO-Related Salinity Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean
from Simulations of a Coupled Model (CFS03)

*Sudhir Nadiga, Wanqui Wang, Jiande Wang and David Behringer*

P1.10 Relationship Between Forecast Skill and Ensemble Size in the NCEP
CFS

*Wanqui Wang, and Arun Kumar*

P1.11 Effect of Ensemble Size on Forecasts of Seasonal Extremes

*Lisa Goddard and Simon Mason*

P1.12  Ensemble Weighting: Can we do better than the ensemble mean of
the CFS?\
*Wesley Ebisuzaki*      \
                             

P1.13 The Effect of SST Forcing on Seasonal Prediction by Nonlinear
Multimodel Ensemble

*Suhee Park, Sung-Dae Kang and Won-Tae Kwon*

P1.14 Assessing Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skill and
Predictability from a Hierarchy of Atmospheric and Coupled GCM Ensemble
Forecasts

*W. Stern, R. Gudgel and A. Rosati*

P1.15 The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the NCEP GFS and
CFS Simulation Runs

*Kyong-Hwan Seo, Jae Schemm, Wanqui Wang and Arun Kumar*

P1.16 Prediction of Global SST Using a Markov Model

*Yan Xue*

P1.17 Preliminary Comparison of Climate Predictions with Fully Coupled
and Anomaly Coupled Versions of the COLA 3.0 MOM3 Coupled GCM

*M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, L. Marx, V. Misra, D. Paolina, D.
Straus*

P1.18 Real-time Monitoring and Verification of the MJO in the NCEP GFS
and CFS Forecasts

*Kyong-Hwan Seo, Jae Schemm, and Wanqui Wang*

P1.19 The Continuum and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection
Patterns

*Christian Franzke and Steven Feldstein*

P1.20 Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast
System

*Catherine Thiaw, Suranjana Saha, Diane Stokes and Steve Lord*

P1.21 Anomaly Initialization in the CFS Prediction System

*Eric Altshuler and Ben Kirtman*

P1.22 SST forecast using the APCN multi-model ensemble climate
prediction system

*June-Yi Lee, Bin Wang, In-Sik Kang, Chung-Kyu Park, and Lorenz Magaard*

P2.1 The 2005 Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Season

*Gerald Bell and Muthuvel Chelliah*

P2.2 Storm Track Monitoring and Research at the Climate PredictionCenter

*Jon Gottschalck, Wayne Higgins and Tim Eichler*

P2.3 The abnormally Wet Winter (2004-2005) in Southern California: The
Role of Atmospheric Blocking

*Marco Carrera*

P2.4 Activity of the Major Climate Modes in the Past Year (Oct.
2004-Sep. 2005)

*Peitao Peng*

P2.5 Overview of the 2005 Monsoons

*Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi, Viviane Silva, Wassila Thiaw, Pingping Xie and
Muthuvel Chelliah*

P2.6 Dust Observations in El Paso Del Norte During the 2005 North
American Monsoon Season

*Karina Apodaca and Vernon Morris*

P2.7 U.S. Real Time Drought Monitoring Based on NCEP Regional Reanalysis

*Muthuvel Chelliah and Kingtse Mo*

P2.8 An Experimental Daily Surface Water Monitor for the Continental US

*Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda and Dennis Lettenmaier*

P2.9 A Web Site for NCEP's Operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation
System

*Yan Xue and Boyin Huang*

P2.10 Predictability of the NCEP Coupled Forecast System

*Kyung Jin, James Kinter and Jagadish Shukla*

P2.11 A Suitable Bias Correction for CFS Forecasts

*Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar, Wanqui Wang, Qin Zhang and Bhaskar Jha*

P2.12 Mean Bias Correction on NCEP Regional Spectral Model for Seasonal
Climate Simulations

*Hann-Ming Juang and Jun Wang*

P2.13 Regional Climate Prediction by NCEP Regional Spectral Model

*Jun wang and Hann-Ming Juang*

P2.14 The Fidelity of NCEP-CFS Seasonal Hindcasts over Nordeste

*V. Misra and Yuning Zhang*

P2.15 Prediction Skill of NAO and PNA From Daily to Seasonal Time Scales

*Ake Johansson*

P2.16 The New ECPC GSM/MIT Coupled Experimental Seasonal Prediction
Model

*Elena Yulaeva, Masao Kanamitsu and John Roads*

P2.17 The Impact of Cloud Water Schemes on Seasonal Prediction

*Akhihiko Shimpo and Masao Kanamitsu*

P2.18 Feasibility Study of the Downscaling of Global Seasonal Forecasts
over the Western US

*Masao Kanamitsu and Laurel Dehaan*

P2.19 Regional Downscaling over Southeast Asia by using RegCM3

*Jian-Hua Qian*

P2.20 Predictability of Ensemble Weather Forecasts with a Newly Derived
Similarity Index

*Tomohito Yamada, Shinjiro Kanae, Taikan Okiand Randal Koster*

P2.21 Effect of Noise on Predictions Based on Empirical Models Derived
from Coupled Simulations

*Rameshan Kallummal and Ben Kirtman*

P2.22 National Weather Service Eastern Region Climate Outreach Toolkit

*Patricia Wnek*

P2.23 Science and Technology Infusion Climate Bulletin

*Jiayu Zhou*

P2.24 Web-Based Climate Product Portals from NOAA's National Climatic
Data Center and Regional Climate Centers

> *Timothy Owen*

P2.25 An Investigation of the Spring Predictability Barrier

> *Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Michele Rienecker,
> Augustine Vintzileos, and Nicole Kurkowski*

P.2.26 The Recent Evolution of the ENSO Cycle

*Vernon Kousky*

P3.1 Distinct Precursors for El Nino and La Nina Onsets

*Wilbur Chen*

P3.2 Propagation Characteristics of Off-Equatorial Synoptic Scale
Disturbances and its Association with ENSO Phase Transitions

*Zuqiang Zhang and Renhe Zhang*

P3.3 The Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American
Anticyclones

*Timothy Eichler and Wayne Higgins*

P3.4 Analysis of Atmospheric Signal and Noise to Tropical SSTs in Eight
AGCMs

*Bhaskar Jha and Arun Kumar*

P3.5 The CFS126: a dynamical system for subseasonal forecasts \--
challenges in predicting the MJO.

*Augustin Vintzileos and Hualu Pan*

P3.6 The Annual Cycle of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System Anomalies Over
Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans

*Natalia Vjazilova*

P3.7 East Eurasian Snow Cover Triggering the Northern Annular Mode

*Eun-Jeong Cha and M. Kimoto*

P3.8 Simulated Global Snow from the CPC Leaky Bucket Soil and Snow Model

*Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool*

P3.9 Role of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extremes on Atmospheric Circulation

*Uma Bhatt and Michael Alexander*

P3.10 Evidence of Changes in the Atmospheric Tropical Circulation and
Implications for Antarctic Ozone Trend

*Leila Carvalho and Charles Jones*

P3.11 The Signal of Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability in Surface
Temperature and Atmospheric Fields

*Junye Chen, Anthony DelGenio and Barbara Carlson*

P3.12 Climate Change and Short-Term Forecasting For Alaskan Northern
Coasts

*Gary Hufford and James Partain*

P3.13 Impact of Land Use Change on California's Climate

*Hideki Kanamaru and Masao Kanamitsu*

P3.14 Radiosonde Monthly Statistics Dataset: An Extended Version For
Upper-Air Climate Research

*Alexander Sterin and Arsenii Timofeev*

P3.15 Using CMORPH to Disaggregate Daily Rain Gauge Analyses to Hourly
Analyses

*John Janowiak and Bob Joyce*

P3.16 Improved CPC Gridded Historical Daily Precipitation Analyses Over
Brazil

*Viviane Silva, Vernon Kousky, Wei Shi and Wayne Higgins*

P3.17 Cool-Season Regime Transition and Its Impact on Precipitation in
the Northeast

*Heather Archambault, Lance Bosart and Daniel Keyser*

P3.18 Relative cooling of the N. Indian Ocean: Its relation to aerosols
and Indian/sub-Saharan Africa rainfall trends

*Chul Chung and V. Ramanathan*

P3.19 Global Precipitation Variations and Long-term Changes Derived from
the GPCP Monthly Product

*Robert F. Adler, Guojun Gu, George Huffman, and Scott Curtis*

P3.20 Inter-Basin Interactions and Biennial Climate Variability in the
Indo-Pacific Region

*Jin-Yi Yu*

P3.21 Observed Relationships between the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation
and the Extratropical Zonal-Mean Circulation.

*Michelle L\'Heureux and David W.J. Thompson*

P4.1 Relationships Between Indo-Pacific SSTs and Asian-Australian
Monsoon in the NCEP Models

*Soo-Hyun Yoo, Song Yang and Chang-Hoi Ho*

P4.2 Coordination of NAME Modeling and Field Activities

*Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG*

P4.3 NAMAP2: A Multi-Model Assessment of North American Monsoon
Simulations

*David Gutzler and NAMAP2 Collaborators*

P4.4 NAME Upper-Air Gridded Datasets: Description and Some Preliminary
Results

*Paul Ciesielski, Richard Johnson, Peter Rogers and Richard Taft*

P4.5 An Observational Analysis of Two Gulf Surge Events During the 2004
North American Monsoon Experiment

*Peter Rogers, Richard Johnson, Paul Ciesielski and Brian McNoldy*

P4.6 The Diurnal Cycle of the Windfield Over Northwestern Mexico Based
on the NAME Pilot Balloon Sounding Network Observations

*Michael Douglas, Javier Murillo, John Mejia, Raquel Orozco and Jose
Galvez*

P4.7 Seasonal Evolution of the Sea-Land Breeze Circulation Along the
Gulf of California and Possible Relations to Vegetation Green-Up

*Michael Douglas, Chris Watts, Jose Galvez, John Meija, Javier Murillo
and Raquel Orozco*

P4.8 Role of Easterly Waves and the MJO in Gulf of California Moisture
Surges

*Man Li Wu, Siegfried Schubert and Myong-In Lee*

P4.9 The Intra-Americas Sea Low-Level Jet

*Jorge Amador and Kingtse Mo*

P4.10 Characteristics of Daily Precipitation From the NAME Precipitation
Assessment Project

*Wei Shi, Wayne Higgins, Viviane Silva and John Janowiak*

P4.11 Evaluating the Hydro-Estimator Satellite Rainfall Algorithm over a
Mountainous Region

*Ismail Yucel, Robert Kuligowski and David Gochis*

P4.12 In-Phase and Out-of-Phase Relations Between Seasonal Precipitation
and Precipitable Water: A Theoretical and Data Analysis

*Er Lu and Xubin Zeng*

P4.13 Shift of Summer Precipitation Variability in the Southeast United
States

*Hui Wang and Rong Fu*

P4.14 Covariabilities Between Warm-Season Rainfall and Pre-Season Soil
Moisture in the US: A Climate Modeling Study

*Wanru Wu and Robert Dickinson*

P4.15 The Role of Antecedent Land Surface Conditions in Warm Season
Monsoon Precipitation over Northwestern Mexico 1950-2003

*Chunmei Zhu, Dennis Lettenmaier and Tereza Cavazos*

P4.16 A Soil Moisture Initialization Scheme and its Impact on Quasi-Real
Hindcasts of Summer Season Precipitation Anomalies over the USA

*Sergey Malyshev and C.T. Gordon*

P4.17 The impact of prescribed, model-diagnosed soil moisture on the
interannual variability of

AGCM-simulated precipitation over the USA

*C.T. Gordon and Sergey Malyshev*

P4.18 Soil Moisture Impacts on Potential and Actual Predictability

*Laurel DeHaan, Masao Kanamitsu, Sarah Lu and John Roads*

P4.19 Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development Using GCM Predicted
Precipitation Fields

*A. Sankarasubramanian and Upmanu Lall*

P4.20 Experimental Statistical Climate Forecasts for the Interior
Southwestern U.S.: Methodology and Skill

*Klaus Wolter*

P4.21 Climate and Management of the Colorado River

*Andrea Ray, Doug Kenney, and Roger Pulwarty*

P4.22 Climate Needs of Agricultural Researchers

*Paul Knight*

P4.23 A Coupled Mode over the NH Extra-Tropical Ocean and the Linkage to
Potential Predictability of Climate over North America During Boreal
Summer

*Hailan Wang and William Lau*

P4.24 Interseasonal Survey of Long-lived Positive Potential Vorticity
Anomalies Generated from Monsoon Convection

*Stephen Saleeby and William Cotton*

P4.25 Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal
Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel

*Wassila Thiaw and Kingtse Mo*