**Total Cost for Air Carrier Delay**

**For**

**the Years 1987-1994**

**December 1995**

**APO-130**

Total Cost for Air Carrier Delay For 1994

This analysis presents updated costs of delay for air carriers for the
years 1987-1994. Table 1 presents various cost items for both operating
and passenger costs in terms of current year dollars. Table 2 exhibits
both the operating and passenger costs in 1994 dollars to facilitate
historical comparisons among the years 1987-1994. Finally, Table 3
illustrates year-to-year differences in percentage for selected items in
Table 2.

Average hours of delay per flight decreased very slightly\--0.8
percent\--whereas the total hours of aircraft delay increased\--1.0
percent\--in 1994 on the strength of an increase in the revenue flights,
up 4 percent. However, the real delay cost on the operations saw a
moderate decreasing trend, 3.3 percent, 1.3 percent, and 1.8 percent for
1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively, primarily, due to decline in the
aircraft operating cost. On the other hand, the total passenger delay
cost showed a moderate increase, 5.6 percent from 1993. This was
attributable to an increase in the revenue passengers per flight as well
as the increase in the revenue flights mentioned above. Thus, the total
delay cost showed a 3.5 percent increase from 1993 in 1994 dollars.

An appendix documents the calculation of each item in the tables giving
data sources.

Table 1

COMPUTATION OF TOTAL DELAY COST FOR ALL AIR CARRIERS

(in current year dollars)

  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Item                         1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994
  ---------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  1\. Average hours of delay   0.228   0.233   0.243   0.240   0.237   0.237   0.239   0.237
  per flight                                                                           

  2\. No. of revenue flights   6,373   6,426   6,332   6,572   6,456   6,661   6,825   7,095
  (thousands)                                                                          

  3\. Total delay (thousands   1,453   1,497   1,539   1,630   1,530   1,579   1,631   1,682
  of hours)                                                                            

  4\. Aircraft operating cost  1,304   1,442   1,537   1,736   1,624   1,570   1,538   1,495
  (\$/delay hr.)                                                                       

  5\. Total operating cost     1,895   2,159   2,365   2,829   2,485   2,478   2,509   2,514
  (\$millions)                                                                         

  6\. Revenue                  94.1    93.3    94.2    92.2    91.9    94.6    92.6    94.8
  passengers/flight                                                                    

  7\. Passenger delay (million 136.7   139.7   145.0   150.3   140.6   149.3   151.0   159.4
  pass. hrs. )                                                                         

  8\. Value of passenger time  34.00   35.50   37.00   39.00   40.50   42.00   43.00   44.00
  (\$/pass. hr.)                                                                       

  9\. Total passenger delay    4,649   4,959   5,363   5,861   5,695   6,272   6,495   7,014
  cost (\$mil.)                                                                        

  10\. Total delay cost (\$    6,544   7,118   7,728   8,690   8,180   8,750   9,004   9,528
  million)                                                                             
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 2

COMPUTATION OF TOTAL DELAY COST FOR ALL AIR CARRIERS

(in 1994 dollars)

  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Item                          1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994
  ----------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  1\. Average hours of delay    0.228   0.233   0.243   0.248   0.237   0.237   0.239   0.237
  per flight                                                                            

  2\. No. of revenue flights    6,373   6,426   6,332   6,572   6,456   6,661   6,825   7,095
  (thousands)                                                                           

  3\. Total delay (thousands of 1,453   1,497   1,539   1,630   1,530   1,579   1,631   1,682
  hours)                                                                                

  4\. Aircraft operating cost   1,686   1,789   1,818   1,954   1,754   1,644   1,571   1,495
  (\$/delay hour)                                                                       

  5\. Total operating cost      2,450   2,679   2,798   3,184   2,684   2,595   2,562   2,514
  (\$millions)                                                                          

  6\. Revenue passengers/flight 94.1    93.3    94.2    92.2    91.9    94.6    92.6    94.8

  7\. Passenger delay (million  136.7   139.7   145.0   150.3   140.6   149.3   151.0   159.4
  pass. hrs. )                                                                          

  8\. Value of passenger time   44.00   44.00   44.00   44.00   44.00   44.00   44.00   44.00
  (\$/pass. hour)                                                                       

  9\. Total passenger delay     6,015   6,147   6,380   6,613   6,186   6,569   6,644   7,014
  cost (\$mil.)                                                                         

  10\. Total delay cost (\$     8,465   8,825   9,178   9,798   8,870   9,165   9,206   9,528
  million)                                                                              
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 3

YEAR-TO-YEAR DIFFERENCE (PERCENT) FOR TABLE 1

(for 1994 dollars)

  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Item                         87-88   88-89   89-90   90-91   91-92   92-93   93-94
  ---------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  Average hours of delay per   2.2     4.3     2.1     -4.4    0.0     0.8     -0.8
  flight                                                                       

  No. of revenue flights       0.8     -1.5    3.8     -1.8    3.2     2.5     4.0
  (thousands)                                                                  

  Aircraft operating cost      6.1     1.6     7.4     -10.2   -6.3    -4.4    -4.8
  (\$/delay hr.)                                                               

  Total operating cost         9.3     4.5     13.8    -15.7   -3.3    -1.3    -1.8
  (\$millions)                                                                 

  Revenue passengers/flight    -0.9    1.0     -2.1    -0.3    2.9     -2.1    2.4

  Passenger delay (million     2.2     3.8     3.7     -6.4    6.2     1.1     5.5
  pass. hrs. )                                                                 

  Total passenger delay cost   2.2     3.8     3.7     -6.5    6.2     1.1     5.6
  (\$mil.)                                                                     

  Total delay cost (\$         4.3     4.0     6.7     -9.5    3.3     0.5     3.5
  million)                                                                     
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Appendix: Documentation for Cost Items**

Item 1: **[Hours of Delay per Flight]{.underline}**

Delay measurements for the flights by major air carriers are derived
from DOT\'s Airlines Service Quality Performance (ASQP) data. Yearly
averages weighted by operations were calculated for the years 1987-1994.

  ----------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  Year                    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994

  Delay/flight(minutes)   13.68   13.99   14.58   14.90   14.23   14.24   14.32   14.23

  Hours of Delay/flight   0.228   0.233   0.243   0.248   0.237   0.237   0.239   0.237
  ----------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------

Item 2: **[No. of Revenue Flights]{.underline}**

Data for the number of revenue flights (in thousands) were provided by
APO-110, Statistical and Forecast Branch.

  ---------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --------
  Year             1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994

  Revenue flights  6,373   6,426   6,332   6,572   6,456   6,661   6,825   7,095
  ---------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --------

Item 3: **[Total Delay]{.underline}**

This item is calculated as a product of the items 1 and 2.

Item 4: **[Aircraft Operating Cost]{.underline}**

Data for the aircraft operating cost (dollars/hour) were obtained from
DOT Form 41 data submitted by all the airlines. For this study, the cost
data were extracted for those major airlines submitting performance data
to DOT (AA, AS, CO, DL, HP, NW, TW, UA, US, and WN) for the years
1987-1994. The operating cost/hour for each year was calculated by
dividing total operating cost by total block hours.

  ---------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------
  Year                   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994

  Operating Cost         1304   1442   1537   1736   1624   1570   1538   1495
  (\$/hour)                                                               
  ---------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------

Item 5: **[Total Operating Cost]{.underline}**

This item is calculated as a product of the items 3 and 4.

Item 6: **[Revenue Passengers/Flight]{.underline}**

Data for the number of revenue passengers/flight were provided by
APO‑110, Statistical and Forecast Branch.

  ------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ --------
  Year               1987   1988   1989   1990    1991   1992   1993   1994

  Passenger/flight   94.1   93.3   94.2   92.2    91.9   94.6   92.6   94.8
  ------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ --------

Item 7: **[Passenger Delay]{.underline}**

This item is calculated as a product of the items 3 and 6.

Item 8: **[Value of Passenger Time]{.underline}**

Data for the value of passenger time were provided by APO-220, Economic
Analysis Branch. These critical values were documented in detail in an
APO report, \"Economic Values For Evaluation of Federal Aviation
Administration Investment and Regulatory Programs,\" FAA-APO-89-10
published in October 1989.

  ---------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  Year                   1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994

  Value of Passenger     34.00   35.50   37.00   39.00   40.50   42.00   43.00   44.00
  Time (dollars/hour)                                                            
  ---------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------

Item 9: **[Total Passenger Delay Cost]{.underline}**

This item is calculated as a product of the items 7 and 8.

Item 10: **[Total Delay Cost]{.underline}**

This item is calculated as a sum of the items 5 and 9.

**[GDP Implicit Price Deflator]{.underline}**:

GDP implicit price deflators (Total Personal Consumption Expenditures)
were obtained from \"Economic Report of the President,\" published in
February 1995 and were used to adjust various cost data to 1994 dollars.

  --------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
  Year            1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994

  GDP Price       100.0   104.2   109.3   114.9   119.7   123.5   126.6   129.3
  Deflator                                                                

  Annual Inflator         1.042   1.049   1.051   1.042   1.032   1.025   1.021

  Multiplier to   1.293   1.241   1.183   1.125   1.080   1.047   1.021   
  1994                                                                    
  --------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------