Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 9/20/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** AS4028

AS4028

**Australia**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Semi Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Andrew C. Burst, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Australia\'s apple and pear crops are both forecast at below average
production levels in calendar year (CY) 2004. The Australian deciduous
tree fruit industry continues to suffer the lingering effects of
drought, despite a recent return to more normal weather conditions.
Exports are forecast at historically low levels in CY 2004. Post has
also revised production numbers downward for CY 2003, in-line with
up-to-date figures published by the industry.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Semi-Annual Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

Table of Contents

[SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
3](#section-one-situation-and-outlook)

[SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES 4](#section-two-statistical-tables)

[SECTION THREE: NARRATIVE ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND, POLICY & MARKETING
8](#section-three-narrative-on-supply-and-demand-policy-marketing)

[Apples 8](#apples)

[Production 8](#production)

[Consumption 8](#consumption)

[Trade 9](#trade)

[Stocks 10](#stocks)

[Pears 10](#pears)

[Production 10](#production-1)

[Consumption 11](#consumption-1)

[Trade 11](#trade-1)

[Stocks 11](#stocks-1)

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Australia's apple and pear crops are both forecast at below average
production levels in calendar year (CY) 2004. The Australian deciduous
tree fruit industry continues to suffer the lingering effects of
drought, despite a recent return to more normal weather conditions.

Exports are also forecast at historically low levels in CY 2004. A
relatively strong Australian dollar, combined with low deciduous fruit
availability, is expected to see export volumes fall by around half in
CY 2004.

Post has revised production numbers downward for CY 2003, in-line with
up-to-date figures published by the industry. Climatic conditions, such
as drought, has constrained production to below Post's previous
expectations. Post also revised tree numbers in-line with recently
published industry figures.

# 

# SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| PSD Table         |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Apples, Fresh     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 1** | ed** | 2** | te** | 3** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                   | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                   | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                   | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                   | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                   | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 02** |     | 03** |     | 04** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area Planted**  | 25  | 2    | 25  | 2    | 28  | 2    | *(   |
|                   | 000 | 5000 | 000 | 5000 | 000 | 8000 | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Harvested**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Bearing Trees** | 6   | 8300 | 6   | 8392 | 6   | 8400 | *(   |
|                   | 400 |      | 500 |      | 600 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Bearing     | 3   | 1800 | 3   | 1819 | 3   | 1820 | *(   |
| Trees**           | 752 |      | 811 |      | 850 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Trees**   | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
|                   | 152 | 0100 | 311 | 0211 | 450 | 0220 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Commercial      | 320 | 32   | 340 | 32   | 280 | 28   | *(   |
| Production**      | 526 | 0526 | 000 | 6000 | 000 | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Comm.       | 0   | 0    | 0   |      | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Production**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 320 | 32   | 340 | 32   | 280 | 28   | *(   |
| Production**      | 526 | 0526 | 000 | 6000 | 000 | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports** | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 320 | 32   | 340 | 32   | 280 | 28   | *(   |
|                   | 526 | 0526 | 000 | 6000 | 000 | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic Fresh  | 138 | 13   | 135 | 13   | 120 | 12   | *(   |
| Consump**         | 000 | 8000 | 000 | 5000 | 000 | 5000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Exports, Fresh  | 25  | 2    | 33  | 3    | 25  | 1    | *(   |
| Only**            | 920 | 5670 | 566 | 2099 | 000 | 5000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **For             | 156 | 15   | 171 | 15   | 135 | 14   | *(   |
| Processing**      | 606 | 6856 | 434 | 8901 | 000 | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Withdrawal From | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Market**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 320 | 32   | 340 | 32   | 280 | 28   | *(   |
| UTILIZATION**     | 526 | 0526 | 000 | 6000 | 000 | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Export Trade    |                 |                 |                 |
| Matrix          |                 |                 |                 |
|                 |                 |                 |                 |
| Apples, Fresh   |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Time Period** | **Jan - Dec**   | **Units:**      | **MT**          |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Exports       | **2002**        |                 | **2003**        |
| for:**          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.S.            | 116             | U.S.            | 0               |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others**      |                 | **Others**      |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| India           | 5244            | India           | 6665            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Malaysia        | 5224            | Malaysia        | 6135            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Sri Lanka       | 3661            | United Kingdom  | 5322            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Singapore       | 2553            | Sri Lanka       | 4563            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| United Kingdom  | 2234            | Taiwan          | 2785            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Bangladesh      | 1381            | Singapore       | 1801            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Taiwan          | 1327            | Bangladesh      | 1532            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Indonesia       | 739             | Indonesia       | 663             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Hong Kong       | 577             | Hong Kong       | 634             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Papua New       | 459             | Papua New       | 441             |
| Guinea          |                 | Guinea          |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for     | **23399**       |                 | **30541**       |
| Others**        |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others not      | 2155            |                 | 1558            |
| Listed          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand Total** | **25670**       |                 | **32099**       |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| PSD Table         |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Pears, Fresh      |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 1** | ed** | 2** | te** | 3** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                   | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                   | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                   | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                   | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                   | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 02** |     | 03** |     | 04** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area Planted**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Harvested**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Bearing Trees** | 1   | 1330 | 1   | 1305 | 0   | 1300 | *(   |
|                   | 950 |      | 950 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Bearing     | 550 | 350  | 550 | 326  | 0   | 320  | *(   |
| Trees**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Trees**   | 2   | 1680 | 2   | 1631 | 0   | 1620 | *(   |
|                   | 500 |      | 500 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Commercial      | 145 | 14   | 165 | 13   | 0   | 15   | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 5000 | 000 | 5919 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Comm.       | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Production**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 145 | 14   | 165 | 13   | 0   | 15   | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 5000 | 000 | 5919 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports** | 1   | 1467 | 2   | 2097 | 0   | 1500 | *(   |
|                   | 467 |      | 097 |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 146 | 14   | 167 | 13   | 0   | 15   | *(   |
|                   | 467 | 6467 | 097 | 8016 |     | 1500 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic Fresh  | 70  | 7    | 85  | 7    | 0   | 8    | *(   |
| Consump**         | 000 | 0000 | 000 | 0000 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Exports, Fresh  | 18  | 1    | 15  | 1    | 0   | 1    | *(   |
| Only**            | 472 | 8189 | 331 | 4202 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **For             | 57  | 5    | 66  | 5    | 0   | 6    | *(   |
| Processing**      | 995 | 8278 | 766 | 3814 |     | 1500 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Withdrawal From | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Market**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 146 | 14   | 167 | 13   | 0   | 15   | *(   |
| UTILIZATION**     | 467 | 6467 | 097 | 8016 |     | 1500 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Import Trade    |                 |                 |                 |
| Matrix          |                 |                 |                 |
|                 |                 |                 |                 |
| Pears, Fresh    |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Time Period** | **Jan - Dec**   | **Units:**      | **MT**          |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Imports       | **2002**        |                 | **2003**        |
| for:**          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.S.            | 73              | U.S.            | 0               |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others          |                 | Others          |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| China           | 1304            | China           | 3504            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Japan           | 31              | Japan           | 37              |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Korea South     | 25              | South Africa    | 17              |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa    | 9               |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for     | **1369**        |                 | **3558**        |
| Others**        |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others not      | 25              |                 | 10              |
| Listed          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand Total** | **1467**        |                 | **3568**        |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Export Trade    |                 |                 |                 |
| Matrix          |                 |                 |                 |
|                 |                 |                 |                 |
| Pears, Fresh    |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Time Period** | **Jan -Dec**    | **Units:**      | **MT**          |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Exports       | **2002**        |                 | **2003**        |
| for:**          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.S.            | 0               | U.S.            | 0               |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others          |                 | Others          |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Singapore       | 4328            | Singapore       | 3199            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Malaysia        | 4030            | Malaysia        | 2169            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Indonesia       | 3023            | Canada          | 2099            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Canada          | 1811            | Indonesia       | 2054            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| New Zealand     | 1647            | New Zealand     | 1775            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Hong Kong       | 851             | Hong Kong       | 543             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Bel             | 422             | New Caledonia   | 333             |
| gium-Luxembourg |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| India           | 322             | Bel             | 274             |
|                 |                 | gium-Luxembourg |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Italy           | 232             | United Kingdom  | 234             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Fiji            | 183             | Fiji            | 222             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for     | **16849**       |                 | **12902**       |
| Others**        |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others not      | 1340            |                 | 1300            |
| Listed          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand Total** | **18189**       |                 | **14202**       |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

# SECTION THREE: NARRATIVE ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND, POLICY & MARKETING

## Apples

### Production

Australia's apple production in calendar year (CY) 2004 is forecast at
280,000 metric tons (MT), unchanged from Post's previous forecast
(Report #AS4001), but a decline of approximately 14 percent, or 46,000
MT, from the revised figure for the previous year. Historical data
reported by the Australian Department of Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries (DAFF, formerly AFFA) shows this level of production to be
well below average. The long-term effects of the drought experienced in
2002 and 2003, combined with the "off-year" in the traditional bi-annual
production cycle, significantly constrained apple production in CY 2004.

Apple production in CY 2003 is estimated at 326,000 MT, down from Post's
previous forecast and in-line with industry estimates. Widespread
drought and isolated incidents of hail constrained output. Conversely,
the lack of humidity associated with the drought reduced the incidence
of pests and diseases. This production level is around an average level,
according to historical DAFF figures.

Post has revised tree numbers for CY 2003, in-line with figures recently
published by the industry. New technology is increasing the density of
new plantings. Over time this is expected to increase tree numbers
slowly.

Post uses DAFF figures to establish long-term trends and averages. DAFF
figures are reported in split-years (July-June) with the second year of
DAFF's split year correlating directly with Post's calendar year
production figures (i.e., DAFF 2002/03 = Post 2003).

![](media/image2.wmf)

*Source: DAFF*

### Consumption

Official up-to-date consumption figures for apples are unavailable.
Historical data shows domestic fresh consumption of apples is slightly
less than that destined for processing. Consumption and processing
figures quoted by Post are derived from total supply less exports.

### Trade

**Exports:** Australia's apple exports in CY 2004 are forecast at 15,000
MT, down from Post's previous forecast. This represents a decline of
around 50 percent on the revised figure for the previous year.
Year-to-date Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for 2004 show
a decline of over 50 percent compared to the same period in the previous
year. A smaller crop, increased competition from other southern
hemisphere countries and a stronger Australian dollar are likely the
major determinants of the drop in CY 2004 exports.

Exports for CY 2003 are estimated at 32,099 MT, in-line with revised ABS
figures and down slightly from Post's previous estimate. Historical
figures show this level of exports to be largely in-line with long-term
export trends, despite the above-average sized crop.

![](media/image3.wmf)

*Source: DAFF*

**Imports:** Australia bans essentially all apple imports because of
disease and insect pests that are of quarantine concern. Of principal
concern for Australia is Fire blight, a plant pathogen that is present
in most apple producing countries (including the United States).
Australian quarantine agencies (Biosecurity Australia) commenced an
import risk analysis (IRA) for New Zealand apples in 1999.

In October 2000, Australia (Biosecurity Australia) released a draft IRA
for New Zealand apples. Biosecurity Australia subsequently issued a
revised IRA for public comment in February 2004. Outlined in this IRA
are the most recently proposed measures for dealing with concerns such
as Fire blight, European canker, apple leaf curling midge, four species
of leaf rollers and wheat bug. The consultation period for the revised
IRA closed in June 2004.

Biosecurity Australia is currently considering submissions received from
stakeholders during the consultation process. The final IRA is pending
these considerations.

This IRA has gained much attention in the rural, and to some extent, the
mainstream media. Industry groups remain vigorously opposed to the
importation of apples and purport this as being too risky on quarantine
grounds. If approved such importation would represent the first
commercial scale shipments of apples into the Australian domestic market
and would provide international competition in the domestic market for
the first time.

**Exchange Rates:** Australia's competitiveness in world agricultural
markets and export returns to domestic producers are heavily impacted by
the value of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar has
appreciated markedly against the currencies of major trading partners,
particularly the United States, over the past two years \-- averaging
US\$0.544 in 2002 and peaking at US\$0.80 in early 2004. Currently, the
Australian dollar is valued at about US\$0.70.

**Free Trade Agreements:** The recently concluded Australia-U.S. Free
Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations were very topical in Australia.
Concerns over the impact the FTA may have on Australian industries and
on government policies were hotly debated. The agreement is pending
final approval, with implementation possible by as early as January 1,
2005.

According to official ABS figures, Australia does not export apples or
pears to the United States. However, the Australia-U.S. FTA would
provide overall benefits to the Australian horticultural industry. Under
the agreement, 99 percent of Australia's current horticultural exports
would enter the U.S. tariff-free, compared with the current 2 percent.

The United States would gain duty-free access to Australia for all
agricultural products under the FTA.

Australia recently completed FTA's with Singapore and Thailand, in
addition to the "Closer Economic Relations" agreement with New Zealand
that dates to 1983. Additional FTA's are being explored with China,
Malaysia, the Association of South East Asian Nations, Japan, and South
Korea, amongst others.

### Stocks

Official statistics for apple industry stocks are unavailable.

The Government of Australia does not subsidize the holding of stocks.
Post believes that stock levels mostly reflect commercial conditions.

## Pears

### Production

Australia's CY 2004 pear production is forecast at 150,000 MT, unchanged
from Post's previous report. This production level represents an
increase of 14,018 MT from revised estimate for the previous year. A
return to more normal weather conditions, following a severe drought,
and steadily improving irrigation water supplies provide a favorable
production outlook for the CY 2004 crop. Despite this improved outlook,
this production level would be well below the long-term average,
according to historic DAFF figures.

Post estimates pear production in CY 2003 at 135,919 MT, down
significantly from the previous estimate and in-line with the most
recent published figures from the domestic industry. Drought conditions
greatly reduced soil moisture levels and the availability of irrigation
water supplies. This production figure is well below the long-term
average, according to historic DAFF figures.

The Australian pear industry may be facing a long-term production
decline, according to historic data reported by DAFF. Industry sources
report that recent expansion in Australian horticulture has been in
high-valued industries such as viticulture and stone fruit, rather than
pears. More recently, climatic events such as drought have lowered
production.

Pear tree numbers were revised downwards by Post, in-line with numbers
recently published by the industry. Anecdotal evidence also suggests
that tree numbers are falling slowly. Drought conditions, low prices and
competition from other higher-valued horticultural crops are believed
responsible for this downward trend.

![](media/image4.wmf)

*Source: DAFF*

### Consumption

The bulk of Australia's pear crop is consumed domestically. Australia's
pear consumption in CY 2004 is forecast at 80,000 MT, unchanged from the
previous estimate.

Official up-to-date consumption figures are unavailable. Post derives
consumption figures from production and exports.

### Trade

**Exports:** Pear exports for CY 2004 are forecast at 10,000 MT, down
5,000 MT from the previous forecast. This export level represents a drop
of about 30 percent from the revised estimate for the previous year.
Official ABS year-to-date data for 2004 show a drop of over 40 percent.
The anticipated below-average sized crop, together with a relatively
strong Australian dollar are expected to see exports fall well below the
long-term average reported by DAFF.

Pear exports for CY 2003 were revised downwards slightly to 14,202 MT,
in-line with revised ABS statistics. This represents the lowest export
figure recorded since 1994/95.

![](media/image5.wmf)

*Source: DAFF*

**Imports:** Australia imports only small quantities of pears, with
China supplying the vast majority.

### Stocks

Official statistics for pear industry stocks are unavailable.

The Government of Australia does not subsidize the holding of stocks.
Post believes that stock levels mostly reflect commercial conditions.