**An Unseasonably Warm January for Western Carolinas**

**and Extreme Northeast Georgia**

*Greg Schoor*

*NOAA/National Weather Service*

*Greer, SC*

January 2006 was the second warmest January at the
Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport (GSP) and the warmest in 32
years, since record keeping began in October 1962. The average
temperature for January 2006 was 48.5 °F, which was 7.5 °F above the
normal average. The warmest January was 51.4 °F, set in 1974.

Asheville and Charlotte, North Carolina also experienced a warmer than
normal January. The average temperature at the Asheville Regional
Airport for January 2006 was 43.2 °F which was 4.2 °F above normal. A
record high temperature of 68 °F on January 9. January 2006 was also the
warmest January in 32 years.

The average temperature at Charlotte Douglas International was 47.0 °F.
Even though, this was only the 15^th^ warmest January for Charlotte
since records began in 1878, it was 6 °F above normal.

The unseasonably warm January comes after a cooler than average December
2005 for these three sites. Greenville-Spartanburg was only a half
degree below normal during December while Charlotte and Asheville were
2.9 °F and 2.5 °F below normal, respectively.

Figure 1 shows the departure from normal of average temperatures across
the contiguous United States for January 2006. Most of the country
experienced above normal temperatures for the month of January. The
eastern two-thirds of the United States was generally 5 to 15 °F above
normal and a large portion of the north central United States was 15 to
25 °F for January. The County Warning Area of the Greenville-Spartanburg
National Weather Service Office was almost entirely in the 5 to 10 °F
above normal range.

The mid-level (500 millibar) height pattern, shown in Fig. 2, was one of
the main reasons for the abnormally warm January. The region of warmest
departure from normal temperatures corresponded to the mean mid-level
atmospheric pattern, mainly between the mid-level ridge over the western
United States and the mid-level trough over the eastern United States.
The region between a mid-level trough and mid-level ridge usually
indicates an area of surface high pressure, in this case, centered
northwest of the Great Lakes region. The surface high pressure coincided
with the warmer than normal temperatures. The effect of the high
pressure was much weaker in the western Carolinas and extreme northeast
Georgia. As a result, the departures from normal were not as significant
as in the north central Plains states.

The mean temperature outlook from March through May of 2006, shown in
Fig. 3, do not suggest significant warming or cooling for the western
Carolinas and extreme northeast Georgia. There are equal chances for
average temperatures that are above, below or near normal. Greater
probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures exist further to the
west, mainly in the southwestern United States.

**Appendix:**

![](media/image1.png){width="8.33611111111111in"
height="5.243055555555555in"}

**Figure 1:** Departure from Normal Temperature (°F), January 1-31,
2006. The County Warning Area for the Greenville-Spartanburg office is
encompassed by the thin white line. Graphic from NOAA/National Weather
Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

![](media/image2.png){width="7.751388888888889in"
height="5.666666666666667in"}

**Figure 2:** 500 Millibar Heights and Anomalies (in meters) for January
2006. The thin white lines represent the monthly averaged height
contours. Graphic from NOAA/National Weather Service National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

![](media/image3.png){width="8.7in" height="5.663194444444445in"}

**Figure 3:** Seasonal temperature outlook for the months of March,
April and May 2006. The graphic represents a forecast of the probability
(percentage) of an anomaly of the mean temperature falling into one of
three categories: above normal, near normal, or below normal. Graphic
from NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC)