Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 11/6/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** TU5049

TU5049

**Turkey**

**Grain and Feed**

**Update**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Jim Higgiston, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Unal Sarigedik, Agriculture Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Grain production increased slightly in 2005 due primarily to good
weather conditions. Corn utilization may decrease this year due to a
decline in poultry demand as a result of the outbreak of Avian Influenza
in Turkey. This may force the government to purchase large quantities of
corn from the market.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Unscheduled Report

Ankara \[TU1\]

\[TU\]

Table of Contents

[Executive Summary 3](#executive-summary)

[Wheat 3](#wheat)

[PS&D Table for Wheat 3](#psd-table-for-wheat)

[Export Trade Matrix for Wheat 4](#export-trade-matrix-for-wheat)

[Import Trade Matrix for Wheat 5](#import-trade-matrix-for-wheat)

[Barley 5](#barley)

[PS&D Table for Barley 6](#psd-table-for-barley)

[Export Trade Matrix for Barley 6](#export-trade-matrix-for-barley)

[Import Trade Matrix for Barley 7](#import-trade-matrix-for-barley)

[Corn 7](#corn)

[PS&D Table for Corn 8](#psd-table-for-corn)

[Export Trade Matrix for Corn 8](#export-trade-matrix-for-corn)

[Import Trade Matrix for Corn 9](#import-trade-matrix-for-corn)

[Rice 9](#rice)

[PS&D Table for Rice, Milled 10](#psd-table-for-rice-milled)

[Export Trade Matrix for Rice, Milled
11](#export-trade-matrix-for-rice-milled)

[Import Trade Matrix for Rice, Milled
11](#import-trade-matrix-for-rice-milled)

# Executive Summary

Grain production improved slightly in 2005 due primarily to good weather
conditions. Corn utilization may decrease in MY 2006, due to a sharp
decline in poultry production related to the outbreak of Avian Influenza
in October 2005. This will most likely force the Turkish government to
procure large quantities of corn from the market as a result of a
reduction in the use of corn as feed, since corn is used as the primary
ingredient for poultry feed. In addition, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO)
has been issuing export tenders for corn. Turkey passed legislation
establishing a warehouse receipt system for most grains. This will
hopefully allow farmers to use the receipts as collateral and could pave
the way for a futures market, which currently does not exist in Turkey.

# Wheat

Wheat plantings for MY 2006 have been completed in most parts of the
country, except the Cukurova Region in the south where the second crop
corn harvest is still underway. Precipitation was good in most parts of
the country during October. Sown area has remained unchanged for the
past several years.

The MY 2005 wheat harvest has been completed. The quality of the crop is
good. Based on industry sources, production estimates for MY 2005 were
revised upward due to better yields. MY 2004 production estimates were
also revised upward based on official data. The feed wheat consumption
estimate was reduced in MY 2005 because of better quality of the crop.

## PS&D Table for Wheat

+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| ###         |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
| #### Turkey |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
|             |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
| Wheat       |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
|             | **2   | **Rev  | **20 | **    | **2   | **    | **U  |
|             | 003** | ised** | 04** | Estim | 005** | Forec | OM** |
|             |       |        |      | ate** |       | ast** |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
|             | *     | **     | **   | *     | *     | *     |      |
|             | *USDA | Post** | USDA | *Post | *USDA | *Post |      |
|             | Offic |        | Offi | Estim | Offic | Estim |      |
|             | ial** | **Esti | cial | ate** | ial** | ate** |      |
|             |       | mate** | \    |       |       |       |      |
|             | *     |        | [Old | *     | *     | *     |      |
|             | *\[Ol | **\[N  | \]** | *\[Ne | *\[Ol | *\[Ne |      |
|             | d\]** | ew\]** |      | w\]** | d\]** | w\]** |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| ####        |       | 0      |      | 06    |       | 06    | MM/  |
| #### Market |       | 6/2003 |      | /2004 |       | /2005 | YYYY |
|  Year Begin |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Area      | 8600  | 8600   | 8600 | 8600  | 8600  | 8600  | 1000 |
| Harvested** |       |        |      |       |       |       | HA   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Beginning | 1258  | 1395   | 1315 | 2045  | 817   | 1760  | 1000 |
| Stocks**    |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **P         | 16800 | 16800  | 1    | 18500 | 17500 | 18000 | 1000 |
| roduction** |       |        | 8000 |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL     | 1096  | 1485   | 500  | 515   | 1000  | 500   | 1000 |
| Mkt. Yr.    |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
| Imports**   |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Jul-Jun   | 1056  | 1453   | 500  | 435   | 1000  | 500   | 1000 |
| Imports**   |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Jul-Jun   | 55    | 111    | 18   | 82    | 0     | 0     | 1000 |
| Import      |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
| U.S.**      |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL     | 19154 | 19680  | 1    | 21060 | 19317 | 20260 | 1000 |
| SUPPLY**    |       |        | 9815 |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL     | 839   | 735    | 1998 | 2000  | 1600  | 2000  | 1000 |
| Mkt. Yr.    |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
| Exports**   |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Jul-Jun   | 854   | 736    | 2217 | 2250  | 1600  | 2000  | 1000 |
| Exports**   |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Feed Dom. | 1000  | 1000   | 1000 | 1200  | 1000  | 1000  | 1000 |
| Co          |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
| nsumption** |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL     | 17000 | 16900  | 1    | 17300 | 17000 | 17300 | 1000 |
| Dom.        |       |        | 7000 |       |       |       | MT   |
| Co          |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
| nsumption** |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **Ending    | 1315  | 2045   | 817  | 1760  | 717   | 960   | 1000 |
| Stocks**    |       |        |      |       |       |       | MT   |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL     | 19154 | 19680  | 1    | 21060 | 19317 | 20260 | 1000 |
| DIS         |       |        | 9815 |       |       |       | MT   |
| TRIBUTION** |       |        |      |       |       |       |      |
+-------------+-------+--------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+

In MY 2005, Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has procured nearly 4.2 MMT of
wheat of which around 3.7 MMT is milling wheat and the remainder is
durum wheat. Wheat market prices have been steady even after the harvest
season. Average milling wheat prices were around YTL 0.35 per kilogram
at the Polatli and Konya Commodity Exchanges during the last week in
October. TMO procurement prices for hard milling wheat were YTL 0.35 per
kilogram and for semi hard milling wheat, YTL 0.33 per kilogram. The GOT
also paid a premium of YTL 0.03 per kilogram for registered farmers
whether they sell to TMO, millers or traders. TMO selling prices for
October 2005 were YTL 0.38 per kilogram of hard milling wheat and YTL
0.37 per kilogram of semi hard milling wheat. Wheat prices in the market
currently are about the same as they were in MY 2004.

Turkey raised its import duty from 60 to 100 % for durum wheat and from
60 to 130 % for milling wheat on August 31, 2005. However, wheat imports
are not permitted since the GOT is not providing any control certificate
(import licenses) for imports. Re-exporters, who earlier were allowed to
import wheat for processing without paying the duty, are now obliged to
buy wheat from TMO but at a lower price than TMO domestic selling
prices. The TMO price for durum wheat to re-exporters is USD 141 per MT
for MY 2005 crop and USD 136 per MT for MY 2004 crop. Similarly, TMO
selling prices for hard milling wheat are USD 139 per MT for MY 2005
crop and USD 134 per MT for MY 2004 crop and for semi-hard milling wheat
USD 130 per MT for MY 2005 and USD 125 per MT for MY 2004 crop.

TMO borrowed USD 300 million from international banks to finance MY 2005
grain procurement. Thus far in MY 2005, TMO has announced three export
tenders primarily to repay this debt and free up storage space for the
current corn harvest. TMO sold 60,000 MT of durum wheat (at about USD
165 per MT) and 50,000 MT of hard red milling wheat (at about USD 125
per MT) through these tenders. The Turkish Treasury is paying the
difference between the TMO procurement price and the export prices to
TMO.

## Export Trade Matrix for Wheat

  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------
  Time Period         June -- May      Units:              Metric Tons

  Exports for:        2004             Jan. - Aug. 2005    **2005**

  U.S.                12               U.S.                3

  Others                               Others              

  Algeria             102212           Algeria             112282

  Yemen               26000            Italy               29680

  Italy               19684            Yemen               26000

  Israel              15683            Portugal            25750

  Portugal            15000            Israel              15683

  Syria               5250             Spain               10060

  Germany             218              Syria               5250

  Macedonia           64               Tunisia             5000

  Northern Cyprus     61               Germany             132

  United Kingdom      32               Macedonia           44

  Total for Others    184204                               229881

  Others not Listed   152                                  113

  Grand Total         184368                               229997
  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------

## 

Turkish wheat flour and pasta exports increased significantly and wheat
flour exports reached about 1.2 MMT and pasta exports reached 150,000 MT
in MY 2005. Iraq (600,000 MT), Libya (160,000 MT), and Sri Lanka
(115,000 MT) were the primary flour importers and United Arab Emirates
(30,000 MT) and Iraq (14,000 MT) were the primary pasta importers.

The GOT adopted new legislation to develop a Warehouse Licensing System
in 2005. The Law was adopted early this year, but the related
regulations were published in the Official Gazette towards the end of
October. The Ministry of Industry and Trade issued the Warehouse
Licensing Law and the Regulations, but TMO was assigned to implement the
system. This Law will permit farmers to bring their grains (wheat,
barley, rye, and oats) to TMO and receive a receipt. The application of
the Law has not yet started since the regulations were published very
recently. No funds were raised for the implication of the Law. However,
farmers will be able to obtain credit from 14 designated banks or
financial institutions with the same receipt. This is the first step in
the development of a futures market.

## Import Trade Matrix for Wheat

  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------
  Time Period         June - May       Units:              Metric Tons

  Imports for:        2004             Jan. - Aug. 2005    **2005**

  U.S.                88620            U.S.                2400

  Others                               Others              

  Russia              170429           Kazakhstan          73857

  Kazakhstan          126977           Russia              51166

  Australia           70403            Hungry              2997

  Canada              26328            Romania             879

  Ukraine             12812            Canada              76

  Germany             7804                                  

  Bulgaria            4636                                  

  Romania             3974                                  

  Hungry              3019                                  

  Italy               663                                   

  Total for Others    427045                               128975

  Others not Listed   1060                                  

  Grand Total         516725                               131375
  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------

# Barley

Barley plantings have been completed in most parts of the country in MY
2006 since all barley planted in Turkey is winter barley. Precipitation
was good in most part of the country during October.

The MY 2005 barley harvest is completed. Based on information from
traders and millers, production estimates for MY 2005 were revised
upward due to better yields. About 90 percent of this production is feed
barley and the remainder malting barley.

Barley market prices have also been rather steady even after the harvest
season. Average barley prices were around YTL 0.25 per kilogram at the
Polatli and Konya Commodity Exchanges during the last week in October.
The TMO procurement price for barley was YTL 0.248 per kilogram. The GOT
also paid a premium of YTL 0.03 per kilogram for registered farmers
whether they sold to TMO, millers or traders. In MY 2005, TMO has
procured nearly 800,000 MT of barley, almost entirely feed barley. The
TMO barley-selling price for October 2005 was YTL 0.29 per kilogram.

## PS&D Table for Barley

+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| ###### Turkey   |       |      |      |      |      |      |      |
|                 |       |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Barley          |       |      |      |      |      |      |      |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|                 | **2   | **R  | **20 | **Es | **20 | **Fo | **U  |
|                 | 003** | evis | 04** | tima | 05** | reca | OM** |
|                 |       | ed** |      | te** |      | st** |      |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|                 | *     | **   | **   | **Po | **   | **   |      |
|                 | *USDA | Post | USDA | st** | USDA | Post |      |
|                 | Offic | Es   | Offi |      | Offi | Es   |      |
|                 | ial** | tima | cial | **Es | cial | tima |      |
|                 |       | te** | \    | tima | \    | te** |      |
|                 | *     |      | [Old | te** | [Old |      |      |
|                 | *\[Ol | **\  | \]** |      | \]** | **\  |      |
|                 | d\]** | [New |      | **\  |      | [New |      |
|                 |       | \]** |      | [New |      | \]** |      |
|                 |       |      |      | \]** |      |      |      |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| ######## Ma     |       | 06/  |      | 06/  |      | 06/  | MM/  |
| rket Year Begin |       | 2003 |      | 2004 |      | 2005 | YYYY |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Area          | 3450  | 3450 | 3500 | 3500 | 0    | 3500 | 1000 |
| Harvested**     |       |      |      |      |      |      | HA   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Beginning     | 673   | 530  | 679  | 565  | 855  | 775  | 1000 |
| Stocks**        |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Production**  | 6900  | 6900 | 7400 | 7400 | 0    | 7400 | 1000 |
|                 |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt.    | 223   | 250  | 76   | 110  | 0    | 0    | 1000 |
| Yr. Imports**   |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 171   | 255  | 100  | 70   | 0    | 0    | 1000 |
| Imports**       |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 0     | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 1000 |
| Import U.S.**   |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL         | 7796  | 7680 | 8155 | 8075 | 855  | 8175 | 1000 |
| SUPPLY**        |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt.    | 17    | 15   | 0    | 0    | 0    | 300  | 1000 |
| Yr. Exports**   |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 0     | 0    | 50   | 0    | 0    | 300  | 1000 |
| Exports**       |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Feed Dom.     | 6200  | 6200 | 6400 | 6400 | 0    | 6400 | 1000 |
| Consumption**   |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.    | 7100  | 7100 | 7300 | 7300 | 0    | 7300 | 1000 |
| Consumption**   |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Ending        | 679   | 565  | 855  | 775  | 0    | 575  | 1000 |
| Stocks**        |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL         | 7796  | 7680 | 8155 | 8075 | 0    | 8175 | 1000 |
| DISTRIBUTION**  |       |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+-----------------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+

After a two-year hiatus, Turkey began to export barley in MY 2004. TMO
sold a total of 260,000 MT of feed barley in between USD 132 and USD 138
per MT through three sales in MY 2005. The Turkish Treasury is paying
the difference between the TMO procurement price and the export prices
to TMO.

## Export Trade Matrix for Barley

  ------------------- --------------- -------------------- ---------------
  Time Period         June -- May     Units:               Metric Tons

  Exports for:        2004            Oct. - Aug. 2004     **2005**

  U.S.                                U.S.                  

  Others                              Others               

  Georgia             10              Georgia              10

  Belgium             5               Germany              2

  Germany             2               Netherlands          1

  Kazakhstan          1               Kazakhstan           1

  Total for Others    18                                   14

  Others not Listed                                         

  Grand Total         18                                   14
  ------------------- --------------- -------------------- ---------------

Turkey raised the import duty from 85 percent to 100 percent for barley
on August 31, 2005. The Turkish MY 2004 barley trade data have been
revised based on official data. France was the major supplier of barley
to Turkey, which was used primarily for ruminant feed.

## Import Trade Matrix for Barley

  -------------------- --------------- -------------------- ---------------
  Time Period          June - May      Units:               Metric Tons

  Imports for:         2004                                 **2005**

  U.S.                                 U.S.                  

  Others                               Others               

  France               48502           France               51502

  Ukraine              43479           Kazakhstan           15803

  Kazakhstan           15803           Iraq                 893

  Iraq                 3294            Ukraine              660

  Bulgaria             53              Bulgaria             53

  Total for Others     111131                               68911

  Others not Listed                                          

  Grand Total          111131                               68911
  -------------------- --------------- -------------------- ---------------

## 

# Corn

The first crop corn harvest is about to be completed with the second
crop just beginning. PSD corn production estimate in MY 2005 has
remained the same as earlier at 3.5 MMT. About 40 percent of Turkish
corn production is first crop and about 60 percent is second crop. This
ratio has been changing in favor of second crop corn in recent years. So
far in MY 2005, TMO has procured nearly 250,000 MT of corn. Industry
sources estimate that total procurement of TMO might reach nearly 1 MMT.

Current corn prices are around YTL 0.25 per kilogram. TMO procurement
price for corn was also YTL 0.26 per kilogram. The GOT also paid a
premium of YTL 0.04 per kilogram for registered farmers regardless of
them selling to TMO or others, including millers and traders. TMO has
not yet announced a selling price for corn

Corn consumption was revised slightly downward due to a projected
decrease as a result of the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak in October
2005. Since corn is used as the primary ingredient for poultry feed,
feed wheat was not affected by the AI outbreak. Poultry consumption
declined by 70 -- 90 percent in the days following the outbreak in the
western part of Turkey. To date, no new outbreaks have been reported.
Poultry consumption appears to be slowly rising, which should mitigate
the drop in demand for corn. However, any new outbreaks could force a
further decline in poultry consumption and, as a result, corn
consumption. Nearly 900,000 MT of corn is used by the Turkish starch
industry.

Turkey started exporting corn, probably for the first time, in MY 2005.
TMO sold a total of 150,000 MT of corn with the prices in between USD
102 and USD 108 per MT so far in MY 2005. Treasury is subsidizing these
sales since TMO is paying more to farmers for their procurement.

## 

## 

## 

## PS&D Table for Corn

+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| ####### Turkey  |      |       |      |      |      |      |       |
|                 |      |       |      |      |      |      |       |
| Corn            |      |       |      |      |      |      |       |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
|                 | **20 | *     | **20 | **Es | **20 | **Fo | **    |
|                 | 03** | *Revi | 04** | tima | 05** | reca | UOM** |
|                 |      | sed** |      | te** |      | st** |       |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
|                 | **   | *     | **   | **   | **   | **   |       |
|                 | USDA | *Post | USDA | Post | USDA | Post |       |
|                 | Offi | Estim | Offi | Es   | Offi | Es   |       |
|                 | cial | ate** | cial | tima | cial | tima |       |
|                 | \    |       | \    | te** | \    | te** |       |
|                 | [Old | *     | [Old |      | [Old |      |       |
|                 | \]** | *\[Ne | \]** | **\  | \]** | **\  |       |
|                 |      | w\]** |      | [New |      | [New |       |
|                 |      |       |      | \]** |      | \]** |       |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| ######## Ma     |      | 09    |      | 09/  |      | 09/  | MM    |
| rket Year Begin |      | /2003 |      | 2004 |      | 2005 | /YYYY |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Area          | 625  | 625   | 700  | 700  | 800  | 800  | 1000  |
| Harvested**     |      |       |      |      |      |      | HA    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Beginning     | 646  | 875   | 759  | 685  | 499  | 510  | 1000  |
| Stocks**        |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Production**  | 2800 | 2500  | 3000 | 3000 | 3500 | 3500 | 1000  |
|                 |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL Mkt.    | 1025 | 1022  | 150  | 235  | 100  | 100  | 1000  |
| Yr. Imports**   |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 1023 | 1038  | 150  | 235  | 100  | 100  | 1000  |
| Imports**       |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 654  | 678   | 0    | 23   | 0    | 0    | 1000  |
| Import U.S.**   |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | 4471 | 4397  | 3909 | 3920 | 4099 | 4110 | 1000  |
| SUPPLY**        |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL Mkt.    | 12   | 12    | 10   | 10   | 80   | 250  | 1000  |
| Yr. Exports**   |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Oct-Sep       | 12   | 12    | 10   | 10   | 80   | 250  | 1000  |
| Exports**       |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Feed Dom.     | 2800 | 2800  | 2500 | 2500 | 2700 | 2500 | 1000  |
| Consumption**   |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL Dom.    | 3700 | 3700  | 3400 | 3400 | 3600 | 3400 | 1000  |
| Consumption**   |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **Ending        | 759  | 685   | 499  | 510  | 419  | 460  | 1000  |
| Stocks**        |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | 4471 | 4397  | 3909 | 3920 | 4099 | 4110 | 1000  |
| DISTRIBUTION**  |      |       |      |      |      |      | MT    |
+-----------------+------+-------+------+------+------+------+-------+

## Export Trade Matrix for Corn

  -------------------- -------------- -------------------- --------------
  Time Period          Sep. - Aug.    Units:               Metric Tons

  Exports for:         2004           Jan. - Aug.          **2005**

  U.S.                 1              U.S.                  

  Others                              Others               

  Italy                4838           Israel               426

  Germany              980            Italy                246

  Spain                587            Germany              187

  France               511            France               133

  Israel               426            Greece               109

  Netherlands          133            Spain                47

  Greece               109            Netherlands          32

  Northern Cyprus      33             Northern Cyprus      26

  Iraq                 23             Bulgaria             20

  Bulgaria             20             Japan                15

  Total for Others     7660                                1241

  Others not Listed    1925                                278

  Grand Total          9586                                1519
  -------------------- -------------- -------------------- --------------

Turkey raised the import duty from 100 percent to 130 percent for corn
on August 31, 2005. Turkish MY 2004 trade data for PSD table were
revised according to the official data, which is now available for the
entire marketing year. MY 2005 trade data were also revised according to
the sales made by TMO for exports so far and industry estimates.

## 

## Import Trade Matrix for Corn

  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------
  Time Period         Sep. - Aug.      Units:              Metric Tons

  Imports for:        2004             Jan. - Dec.         2005

  U.S.                23334            U.S.                15030

  Others                               Others              

  Romania             82995            Romania             78214

  Ukraine             41130            Hungry              31899

  Hungry              33293            Ukraine             30203

  Argentina           30796            Argentina           20294

  Bulgaria            12499            Moldova             7836

  Moldova             10433            Bulgaria            6438

  France              1272             Kazakhstan          431

  Spain               447              Spain               402

  Kazakhstan          431              Italy               312

  Italy               311              France              209

  Total for Others    213607                               176238

  Others not Listed   312                                  313

  Grand Total         237253                               191581
  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------- ----------------

# Rice

MY 2005-rice harvest is underway. In MY 2005, area and production
estimates for rice both were revised upward based on information from
industry sources. Paddy rice production in MY 2005 is now estimated at
600,000 MT on 90,000-hectare harvest area. Industry sources also
indicate that there is very little prospects for increasing area for
rice.

Paddy rice market prices remained steady after TMO announced its
procurement prices. The TMO MY 2005 procurement prices were YTL 0.76 per
kilogram of baldo, YTL 0.72 per kilogram of other long grains, primarily
Osmancik, YTL 0.65 per kilogram of medium grain, and YTL 0.59 per
kilogram of short grain. Millers are now buying Osmancik from producers
by paying around YTL 0.65 per kilogram. So far in MY 2005, TMO has
procured nearly 4,000 MT of paddy rice.

The production of Osmancik type long grain paddy rice has increased
significantly in recent years. Industry sources estimate that about 80
percent of the total production in MY 2005 is Osmancik. It is projected
that this ratio will reach to 90 percent during the next couple of
years. Farmers prefer to grow Osmancik, because its characteristics are
very similar to baldo, however its yield is slightly better and it is
more resistant to diseases. There is more research on developing some
new varieties similar to Osmancik. Industry sources expect that the new
varieties will be grown in a few years.

## PS&D Table for Rice, Milled

+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| ####### Turkey   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
|                  |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Rice, Milled     |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|                  | **20 | **R  | **20 | **Es | **20 | **Fo | **U  |
|                  | 03** | evis | 04** | tima | 05** | reca | OM** |
|                  |      | ed** |      | te** |      | st** |      |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|                  | **   | **   | **   | **   | **   | **   |      |
|                  | USDA | Post | USDA | Post | USDA | Post |      |
|                  | Offi | Es   | Offi | Es   | Offi | Es   |      |
|                  | cial | tima | cial | tima | cial | tima |      |
|                  | \    | te** | \    | te** | \    | te** |      |
|                  | [Old |      | [Old |      | [Old |      |      |
|                  | \]** | **\  | \]** | **\  | \]** | **\  |      |
|                  |      | [New |      | [New |      | [New |      |
|                  |      | \]** |      | \]** |      | \]** |      |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| ######## M       |      | 09/  |      | 09/  |      | 09/  | MM/  |
| arket Year Begin |      | 2003 |      | 2004 |      | 2005 | YYYY |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Area           | 70   | 70   | 80   | 80   | 80   | 90   | 1000 |
| Harvested**      |      |      |      |      |      |      | HA   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Beginning      | 130  | 175  | 75   | 50   | 70   | 110  | 1000 |
| Stocks**         |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Milled         | 270  | 270  | 325  | 325  | 325  | 390  | 1000 |
| Production**     |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Rough          | 415  | 415  | 500  | 500  | 500  | 600  | 1000 |
| Production**     |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **MILLING RATE   | 6505 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6505 | 6500 | 1000 |
| (.9999)**        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL          | 250  | 130  | 250  | 285  | 250  | 175  | 1000 |
| Imports**        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Jan-Dec        | 153  | 385  | 250  | 155  | 250  | 175  | 1000 |
| Imports**        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Jan-Dec Import | 46   | 150  | 0    | 23   | 0    | 75   | 1000 |
| U.S.**           |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY** | 650  | 575  | 650  | 660  | 645  | 675  | 1000 |
|                  |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL          | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 1000 |
| Exports**        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Jan-Dec        | 0    | 4    | 0    | 1    | 0    | 0    | 1000 |
| Exports**        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.     | 575  | 525  | 580  | 550  | 580  | 575  | 1000 |
| Consumption**    |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **Ending         | 75   | 50   | 70   | 110  | 65   | 100  | 1000 |
| Stocks**         |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **TOTAL          | 650  | 575  | 650  | 660  | 645  | 675  | 1000 |
| DISTRIBUTION**   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT   |
+------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+

The GOT announced a quota system for importing paddy and milled rice in
MY 2005. The quota system is similar to the scheme announced in 2004.
According to the system, traders are obliged to buy paddy rice from
producers or paddy or milled rice from TMO in order to receive a
quota/import license for importing paddy or milled rice. An importer can
get a quota for importing 800 Kg. of paddy, 640 Kg. of brown rice, or
480 Kg. of milled rice if he buys 1,000 Kg. of paddy from a registered
producer, producer cooperative or union. These ratios are 600 Kg., 480
Kg., and 360 Kg. if an importer buys from a producer, producer
cooperative or union in the Marmara Region (including, Balikesir, Bursa,
Canakkale, Edirne, Istanbul, Kirklareli, Sakarya, and Tekirdag
Provinces), respectively.

An importer can also get a quota if he buys paddy or milled rice from
TMO. Under this scenario, an importer can get a quota for importing 500
Kg. of paddy, 400 Kg. of brown rice, or 300 Kg. of milled rice if he
buys 1,000 Kg. of paddy from TMO. Similarly, an importer can get a quota
for 833 Kg. of paddy, 666 Kg. of brown rice, or 500 Kg. of milled rice
if he buys 1,000 Kg. of milled rice from TMO.

All the quotas to import paddy, brown rice, or milled rice are in effect
from November 1, 2005 through July 31, 2006. The GOT decreased duty
rates for paddy and brown rice for imports through these quotas. The new
rates are 20 percent for importing paddy and 25 percent for importing
brown rice. Milled rice importers will still pay a duty of 43 percent.
These ratios were originally announced as 34 percent, 36 percent, and 45
percent in the 2004 Import Regime and 2005 Import Regime. However, these
rates were reduced to 32 percent, 34 percent, and 43 percent,
respectively for similar quotas in MY 2004.

Turkish MY 2004 rice trade data for PSD table were revised according to
the official data, which is now available for the entire marketing year.

## Export Trade Matrix for Rice, Milled

  ------------------- -------------- ---------------------- --------------
  Time Period         Sep. - Aug.    Units:                 Metric Tons

  Exports for:        2004           Jan. - Dec. 05         **2005**

  U.S.                81             U.S.                   59

  Others                             Others                 

  Iraq                177            Northern Cyprus        193

  Northern Cyprus     176            Belgium                172

  United Kingdom      66             Iraq                   148

  Afghanistan         38             United Kingdom         64

  Russia              31             Kazakhstan             50

  France              26             Turkmenistan           35

  Kazakhstan          25             Germany                30

  Germany             20             France                 24

  Belgium             18             Russia                 23

  Azerbaijan          8              Afghanistan            17

  Total for Others    585                                   756

  Others not Listed                                         161

  Grand Total         666                                   976
  ------------------- -------------- ---------------------- --------------

## Import Trade Matrix for Rice, Milled

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Time Period       Sep. - Oct.       Units:            Metric Tons

  Imports for:      2004              Jan. - Dec. 04    **2005**

  U.S.              74755             U.S.              22793

  Others                              Others            

  Egypt             144625            Egypt             78099

  Italy             46837             Italy             25804

  China             9825              China             17396

  Vietnam           6944              Vietnam           6234

  Thailand          1283              Thailand          1252

  Russia            1005              Russia            892

  Bulgaria          675               Spain             406

  Spain             356               France            109

  Pakistan          155               Pakistan          42

  France            109               India             22

  Total for Others  211814                              130256

  Others not Listed 164                                 416

  Grand Total       286733                              153465
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

##