# Preliminary conclusions regarding the updated status of listed ESUs of West Coast salmon and steelhead 

# 

## D. Sockeye salmon

**February 2003**

**Co-manager review draft**

**This section deals specifically with sockeye salmon. It is part of a
larger report, the remaining sections of which can be accessed from the
same website used to access this section (<http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/>).
The main body of the report (Background and Introduction) contains
background information and a description of the methods used in the risk
analyses**.

# D. SOCKEYE

# D.1 BACKGROUND AND HISTORY OF LISTINGS

Spawning populations of sockeye salmon, *Oncorhynchus nerka* range from
the Columbia River in the south to the Noatak River in the north in
North America, and from Hokkaido, Japan in the south to the Anadyr River
in the north in Asia (Atkinson et al. 1967, Burgner 1991). The vast
majority of sockeye salmon spawn in either inlet or outlet streams of
lakes or in lakes themselves. The offspring of these "lake-type" sockeye
salmon utilize lake environments for juvenile rearing for 1 to 3 years
and then migrate to sea, returning to the natal lake system to spawn
after spending 1 to 4 years in the ocean. However, some populations of
sockeye salmon spawn in rivers without juvenile lake rearing habitat.
The offspring of these riverine spawners utilize slow-velocity sections
of rivers as juvenile rearing habitat for 1 or 2 years ("river-type"
sockeye salmon), or migrate to sea as underyearlings and therefore, rear
primarily in saltwater ("sea-type" sockeye salmon) (Wood 1995). In
common with lake-type sockeye salmon, river/sea-type sockeye salmon
return to natal spawning habitat after 1 to 4 years in the ocean.

Certain self-perpetuating, nonanadromous populations of *O. nerka* that
become resident in lake environments over long periods of time are
called kokanee in North America. Genetic differentiation among sockeye
salmon and kokanee populations indicates that kokanee are polyphyletic,
having arisen from sockeye salmon on multiple independent occasions, and
that kokanee may occur sympatrically or allopatrically with sockeye
salmon. Numerous studies (reviewed in Gustafson et al. 1997) indicate
that sockeye salmon and kokanee exhibit a suite of heritable differences
in morphology, early development rate, seawater adaptability, growth and
maturation that appear to be divergent adaptations that have arisen from
different selective regimes associated with anadromous vs. nonanadromous
life histories. These studies also provide evidence that sympatric
populations of sockeye salmon and kokanee can be both genetically
distinct and reproductively isolated (see citations in Gustafson et al.
1997). Occasionally, a proportion of juveniles in an anadromous sockeye
population will remain in the rearing lake environment throughout life
and will be observed on the spawning grounds together with their
anadromous siblings. Ricker (1938) first used the terms "residual
sockeye" and "residuals" to refer to these resident, non-migratory
progeny of anadromous sockeye salmon.

In April 1990, NMFS initiated a status review of sockeye salmon in the
Salmon River Basin and received a petition from the Shoshone-Bannock
Tribes of the Fort Hall Indian Reservation to list Snake River sockeye
salmon as endangered under the ESA (NMFS 1990, 1991a). The NMFS
Biological Review Team conducted a status review and unanimously agreed
that there was insufficient information available to determine with
reasonable degree of certainty the origin of the current sockeye salmon
gene pool in Redfish Lake (Waples et al. 1991). After some discussion,
the BRT reached a strong consensus that, in this instance, obligations
as resource stewards required them to proceed under the assumption that
recent sockeye salmon in Redfish Lake were descended from the original
sockeye salmon gene pool. Therefore, as stipulated in the Species
Definition Paper (Waples 1991), the anadromous component of *O. nerka*
was considered separately from the non-anadromous (kokanee) component in
determining whether an ESA listing was warranted. The decision to treat
Redfish Lake sockeye salmon as distinct from kokanee led the BRT to
conclude that the Redfish Lake sockeye salmon were in danger of
extinction (Waples et al. 1991). Subsequently, a proposed rule to list
Snake River sockeye salmon as endangered was published (NMFS 1991a).
After consideration of 183 written comments and testimony from public
hearings, NMFS published its final listing determination (NMFS 1991b)
that designated Snake River sockeye salmon as an endangered species.

In September 1994, in response to a petition seeking protection for
Baker Lake, WA sockeye salmon under the ESA and more general concerns
about the status of West Coast salmon and steelhead, NMFS initiated a
coastwide status review of sockeye salmon in Washington, Oregon, and
California, and formed a Biological Review Team (BRT) to conduct the
review. After considering available information on genetics, phylogeny
and life history, freshwater ichthyo-geography, and environmental
features that may affect sockeye salmon, the BRT identified six ESUs
(Ozette Lake, Okanogan River, Lake Wenatchee, Quinault Lake, Baker
River, and Lake Pleasant) and one provisional ESU (Big Bear Creek). The
BRT reviewed population abundance data and other risk factors for these
ESUs and concluded that one (Ozette Lake) was likely to become
endangered in the foreseeable future, and that the remaining ESUs were
not in significant danger of becoming extinct or endangered, although
there were substantial conservation concerns for some of these
(Gustafson et al. 1998). In March 1998, NMFS published a proposed rule
to list the Ozette Lake ESU as threatened under the ESA, and to place
the Baker River ESU on the candidate list. Due to the lack of natural
spawning habitat and the vulnerability of the entire population to
problems in artificial habitats, NMFS proposed to add the Baker River
ESU to the list of candidate species (NMFS 1998). Subsequently, based on
the updated NMFS status review (WCSSBRT 1999) and other information
received, NMFS published its final listing determination (NMFS 1999)
that designated the Ozette Lake sockeye salmon ESU as threatened and
removed the Baker River ESU from the candidate list.

In considering the ESU status of resident forms of *O. nerka*, the key
issue is evaluating the strength and duration of reproductive isolation
between resident and anadromous forms. Many kokanee populations appear
to have been strongly isolated from sympatric sockeye populations for
long periods of time. Since the two forms experience very different
selective regimes over their life cycle, reproductive isolation provides
an opportunity for adaptive divergence in sympatry. Kokanee populations
that fall in this category will generally not be considered part of
sockeye ESUs. On the other hand, resident fish appear to be much more
closely integrated into some sockeye populations. For example, in some
situations, anadromous fish may give rise to progeny that mature in
freshwater (as is the case with residual sockeye), and some resident
fish may have anadromous offspring. In these cases, where there is
presumably some regular, or at least episodic, genetic exchange between
resident and anadromous forms, they should be considered part of the
same ESU. The sockeye salmon BRT[^1] met in January 2003 to discuss new
data received and to determine if the new information warranted any
modification of the conclusions of the original BRTs. This report
summarizes new information and the preliminary BRT conclusions on the
following ESUs: Snake River in Idaho and Ozette Lake in Washington.

# D.2.1 SNAKE RIVER SOCKEYE

# D.2.1.1 Previous BRT Conclusions

The first formal ESA status review for salmon in the Pacific Northwest
was conducted as a response to a 1990 petition to list sockeye salmon
from Redfish Lake in Idaho as an endangered species. The distinctiveness
of this population became apparent early in the process: it spawns at a
higher elevation (2,000m), and has a longer freshwater migration (1,500
km) than any other sockeye salmon population in the world (Waples et al.
1991). Nor was the precarious nature of the anadromous run in doubt: in
the fall of 1990, during the course of the status review, no adults were
observed at Lower Granite Dam or entering the lake, and only one fish
was observed in each of the two previous years. However, a population of
kokanee also existed in Redfish Lake, and the relationship between the
sockeye and kokanee was not well understood. This issue was complicated
by uncertainty regarding the effects of Sunbeam Dam, which stood for
over 2 decades about 20 miles downstream of Redfish Lake. By all
accounts, the dam was a serious impediment to anadromous fish, but
opinions differed as to whether it was an absolute barrier. Some argued
that the original sockeye population in Redfish Lake was extirpated as a
result of Sunbeam Dam, and that adult returns in recent decades were
simply the result of sporadic seaward drift of kokanee (Chapman et al.
1990). According to this hypothesis, the original sockeye gene pool was
extinct and the remaining kokanee population was not at risk because of
its reasonably large size (ca. 5,000-10,000 spawners per year). An
alternative hypothesis held that the original sockeye salmon population
managed to persist in spite of Sunbeam Dam, either by intermittent
passage of adults or recolonization from holding areas downstream of the
dam. The fact that the kokanee population spawns in the inlet stream
(Fishhook Creek) in August-September and all the recent observations of
sockeye spawning have been on the lake shore in October-November was
cited as evidence that the sockeye and kokanee represent separate
populations. According to this hypothesis, the sockeye population was
critically endangered, and perhaps, on the brink of extinction.

At the time of the status review, the BRT unanimously agreed that there
was not enough information to determine which of the above hypotheses
were true (Waples 1991). Although the kokanee population had been
genetically characterized and determined to be quite distinctive
compared to other *O. nerka* populations in the Pacific Northwest, no
adult sockeye were available for sampling, so the BRT could not evaluate
whether the two forms shared a common gene pool. When pressed to make a
decision regarding the ESU status of Redfish Lake *O. nerka*, the BRT
concluded that, because they could not determine with any certainty that
the original sockeye gene pool was extinct, they should assume that it
did persist and was separate from the kokanee gene pool. This conclusion
was strongly influenced by consideration of the irreversible
consequences of making an error in the other direction (*i.e.*, if the
species was not listed based on the assumption that kokanee and sockeye
populations were a single gene pool and this later proved not to be the
case, the species could easily go extinct before the error was
detected).

The status review of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon is the only instance in
which the BRT has been asked to apply the precautionary principle in its
deliberations. In subsequent evaluations, when the "best available
scientific information" was insufficient to distinguish with any
certainty among competing hypotheses regarding key ESA questions, the
BRT has simply reported this result and tried to characterize the degree
of uncertainty in the team's conclusions. Decisions about how best to
apply the precautionary principle in the face of uncertainty in making
listing determinations have been left to the NMFS management/policy arm.

Based on results of the status review, NMFS proposed a listing of
Redfish Lake sockeye as endangered in April 1991. When finalized in late
1991, this represented the first ESA listing of a Pacific salmon
population in the Pacific Northwest. At the time of the listing, the
only population that the BRT and NMFS were confident belonged in this
ESU was the beach spawning population of sockeye from Redfish Lake.
Historical records indicated that sockeye once occurred in several other
lakes in the Stanley Basin, but no adults had been observed in these
lakes for many decades and their relationship to the Redfish Lake ESU
was uncertain.

# D.2.1.2 New Data and Analyses

Four adult sockeye returned to Redfish Lake in 1991; these were captured
and taken into captivity to join several hundred smolts collected in
spring 1991 as they outmigrated from Redfish Lake. The adults were
spawned, and their progeny reared to adulthood along with the
outmigrants as part of a captive broodstock program, whose major goal
was to perpetuate the gene pool for a short period of time (one or two
generations) to give managers a chance to identify and address the most
pressing threats to the population. As a result of this program and
related research, a great deal of new information has been gained about
the biology of Redfish Lake *O. nerka* and limnology of the lakes in the
Stanley Basin. Genetic data collected from the returning adults and the
outmigrants showed that they were genetically similar but distinct from
the Fishhook Creek kokanee. However, otolith microchemistry data (Rieman
et al. 1994) indicated that many of the outmigrants had a resident
female parent. These results inspired a search of the lake for another
population of resident fish that was genetically similar to the sockeye.
These efforts led to discovery of a relatively small number (perhaps a
few hundred) kokanee-sized fish that spawn at approximately the same
time and place as the sockeye. These fish, termed "residual" sockeye
salmon, are considered to be part of the listed ESU.

Subsequent genetic analysis (Winans et al. 1996, Waples et al. 1997) has
established the following relationships between extant populations of
*O. nerka* from the Stanley Basin and other populations in the Pacific
Northwest: 1) native populations of *O. nerka* from the Stanley Basin
(including Redfish Lake sockeye and kokanee and Alturas Lake kokanee)
are genetically quite divergent from all other North American *O. nerka*
populations that have been examined; 2) within this group, Redfish Lake
sockeye and kokanee are genetically distinct, and Alturas Lake kokanee
are most similar to Redfish Lake kokanee; 3) two gene pools of *O.
nerka* have been identified in Stanley Lake---one may be the remnant of
a native gene pool that survived rotenone treatments in the lake, while
the other can be traced to introductions from Wizard Falls Hatchery in
Oregon; 4) no trace of the original gene pool of *O. nerka* has been
found in Pettit Lake. The population that has spawned in Pettit Lake in
recent decades can be traced to introductions of kokanee from northern
Idaho, and those populations in turn can be traced to stock transfers of
Lake Whatcom (Washington) kokanee early in the last century.

Between 1991 and 1998, 16 naturally-produced adult sockeye returned to
the weir at Redfish Lake (Table D.2.1.1) and were incorporated into the
captive broodstock program.

Table D.2.1.1. Adult anadromous sockeye salmon returns to the Redfish
Lake Creek weir 1954-1968 (Bjornn et al. 1968) and the Redfish Lake
Creek trap and Sawtooth Fish Hatchery weir (1991-2002) (L. Hebdon, IDFG,
pers. comm.). No data are available for 1967-1984.

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  **Year**            **Adults**        **Year**          **Adults**

  1954                998               1979              

  1955                4,361             1980              

  1956                1,381             1981              

  1957                523               1982              

  1958                55                1983              

  1959                290               1984              

  1960                75                1985              11

  1961                11                1986              29

  1962                39                1987              16

  1963                395               1988              1

  1964                335               1989              1

  1965                17                1990              0

  1966                61                1991              4

  1967                                  1992              1

  1968                                  1993              8

  1969                                  1994              1

  1970                                  1995              0

  1971                                  1996              1

  1972                                  1997              0

  1973                                  1998              1

  1974                                  1999              7^1^

  1975                                  2000              257^1^

  1976                                  2001              26^1^

  1977                                  2002              22^1^

  1978                                                    
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

> ^1^ Progeny of captive broodstock program

This program, overseen by the Stanley Basin Sockeye Technical Oversight
Committee, has produced groundbreaking research in captive broodstock
technology (Hebdon et al. 1999, Kline and Willard 2001, Frost et al.
2002) and limnology (Kohler et al. 2002). The program has utilized three
different rearing sites to minimize chances of catastrophic failure and
has produced several hundred thousand eggs and juveniles, as well as
several hundred adults, for release into the wild (Table D.2.1.2). A
milestone was reached in 2000, when \> 200 adults from the program
returned to Redfish Lake. Currently, the captive broodstock program is
being maintained as a short-term safety net, pending decisions about
longer-term approaches to recovery of the ESU.

The Snake River Salmon Recovery Team (Bevan et al. 1994; NMFS 1995)
suggested that to be considered recovered under the ESA, this ESU should
have viable populations in three different lakes, with at least 1,000
naturally produced spawners per year in Redfish Lake and at least 500 in
each of two other Stanley Basin lakes. As a step toward addressing this
recommendation, releases of progeny from the Redfish Lake captive
broodstock program have been made in Pettit Lake and Alturas Lake as
well. In 1991, about 100 outmigrants from Alturas

Table D.2.1.2. Summary of releases of progeny from the Redfish Lake
captive broodstock program into Redfish, Alturas, and Pettit Lakes (L.
Hebdon, IDFG, pers. comm.).

  ---------- --------------------- -------------- ----------- -------------
  Redfish                          (Thousands,                
  Lake                             except adults)             
  releases                                                    

             Eggs                  Presmolts      Smolts      Adults

  1993                                                        20

  1994                             14                         65

  1995                             82             4           

  1996       105                   2              12          120

  1997       85                    152                        80

  1998                             95             38          

  1999                             24             5           21

  2000                             48                         120

  2001                             43             14          69

  2002                             107            39          190

                                                              

                                                              

  Alturas                                                     
  Lake                                                        
  releases                                                    

             Eggs                  Presmolts      Smolts      Adults

  1995                                                        

  1996                                                        

  1997       20                    100                        20

  1998                             39                         

  1999                             13                         

  2000                             12                         77

  2001                             12                         

  2002                             6                          

                                                              

                                                              

  Pettit                                                      
  Lake                                                        
  releases                                                    

             Eggs                  Presmolts      Smolts      

  1995                             9                          

  1996                                                        

  1997                             9                          

  1998                             7                          

  1999       20                    3                          

  2000       65                    6                          

  2001                             11                         

  2002       31                    28                         
  ---------- --------------------- -------------- ----------- -------------

Lake were collected at the same time as the Redfish Lake outmigrants and
reared to maturity as a separate population in captivity. However,
because of funding and space limitations and uncertainties about
priorities for propagating this population, the resulting adults were
released into the lake rather than being kept for spawning and another
generation of captive rearing. Because the Alturas Lake kokanee spawn
earlier than Redfish lake sockeye and in the inlet stream, it is hoped
that the introduction of Redfish Lake sockeye into Alturas Lake will not
adversely affect this native gene pool.

**D.2.2 OZETTE LAKE SOCKEYE**

## D.2.2.1 Summary of Previous BRT Conclusions

**Status and trends**

Number range CHAPTERThe 5-year average (geometric mean) estimated
abundance of Ozette Lake sockeye for the period 1994-1998 was 580,
slightly below the average of 700 (for the years 1992-1996) reported by
Gustafson et al. (1997). This decrease is largely because the earlier
average included two dominant brood-cycle years, while the recent
average includes only one. The 1998 count of 984 was substantially above
the count of 498 that was observed 4 years (one generation) earlier.
This may result primarily from a change in counting methods; a video
camera was installed in 1998 and the operation period of the weir was
expanded (7 May-14 August), resulting in a more complete count of all
fish passing the weir (M. Crewson, Makah Indian Tribe, pers. comm., 21
August 1998). It is likely that counts for previous years underestimated
total spawner abundance, but the magnitude of this bias is unknown.

Analyses of trends using data through 1998 indicates that the short-term
(10-year) trend improved from a decline of 9.9% per year in Gustafson et
al. (1997) to a relatively low 2% annual increase. How much this was
influenced by the change in counting methods in 1998 is not known. The
long-term trend remained slightly downward (-2%).

**Threats**

A variety of threats to the continued existence of the sockeye
populations in Ozette Lake were identified, including siltation of beach
spawning habitat, and potential genetic effects of past interbreeding
with genetically dissimilar kokanee. The BRT received an analysis of
logging history in the Ozette Basin from Rayonier Northwest Forest
Resources (Meier 1998). This analysis indicated that most logging in the
basin occured since the mid-1950s: in 1953, only 8.7% of the basin had
been logged, while 60% had been logged by 1981. Thus, logging occurred
largely after the substantial decline in sockeye salmon catch in the
early 1950s.

**BRT conclusions**

The BRT last reviewed the Ozette Lake sockeye ESU status in November
1998. Their conclusion was that the ESU was likely to become endangered
in the foreseeable future. Number range CHAPTERMain uncertainties arose
from questions about the reliability of abundance estimates and the
historical presence of inlet-spawning sockeye salmon in the basin.
Perceived risks were focused on low current abundance and trends and
variability in abundance. At the time of the last status assessment,
escapements averaging below 1,000 adults per year implied a moderate
degree of risk from small-population genetic and demographic
variability, with little room for further declines before abundances
reach critically low levels. Other concerns included siltation of beach
spawning habitat, very low abundance now compared to harvests in the
1950s, and potential genetic effects of past interbreeding with
genetically dissimilar kokanee.

**Listing status**---Threatened

# D.2.2.2 Summary of New Information

# ESU status at a glance

Historical peak abundance 3,000-18,000

Historical populations 1+

Extant populations 1

5-year geometric mean escapement 2,267

# ESU structure

The Puget Sound TRT considers the Ozette Lake sockeye ESU to be
comprised of one historical population, with substantial substructuring
of individuals into multiple spawning aggregations. The primary existing
spawning aggregations occur in two beach locations---Allen's and Olsen's
beaches, and in two tributaries, Umbrella Creek and Big River (both of
the tributary spawning groups were initiated through a hatchery
introduction program). Recently, mature adults have been located at
other beach locations within the lake (e.g., Umbrella beach, Ericson's
Bay, Baby Island, and Boot Bay), but whether spawning occurred in those
locations is not known (Makah Fisheries 2000). Similarly, occasional
spawners are found sporadically in other tributaries to the lake, but
not in as high numbers or as consistently as in Umbrella Creek. The
Umbrella Creek spawning aggregation was started through collections of
lake-spawning adults as initial broodstock, and in recent years, all
broodstock has been collected from returning adults to Umbrella Creek
(Makah Fisheries 2000). The extent to which sockeye spawned historically
in tributaries to the lake is controversial (Gustafson et al. 1997), but
it is clear that multiple beach-spawning aggregations of sockeye
occurred historically, and that genetically distinct kokanee currently
spawn in large numbers in all surveyed lake tributaries (except Umbrella
Creek and Big River). The two remaining beach-spawning aggregations are
probably fewer than the number of aggregations that occurred
historically, but there is insufficient evidence to determine how many
subpopulations occurred in the ESU historically.

Much of the existing spawning in recent years occurs in the spawning
aggregation created via fry releases into Umbrella Creek. The status of
the historically well-documented spawning aggregations at Allen's and
Olsen's beaches is not well understood because of the difficulties in
observing spawners and sampling carcasses in the tannin-rich lake.

**Updated status information**

Because of the concerns about the status of Ozette Lake sockeye, the
Lake Ozette Steering Committee was established (comprised of the Makah
tribe, Olympic National Park, WDFW, and citizen groups) to organize
recovery activities for sockeye. Makah Fisheries initiated a hatchery
program designed to supplement existing beach spawners in 1983 (beach
spawner supplementation ceased with the 1995 broodyear) and later to
introduce sockeye to lake tributaries (intentional releases to
tributaries began in broodyear 1992) (see *Updated Threats
Information*). Therefore, all of the abundance information presented
contains an unknown fraction of hatchery fish.

![](media/image1.wmf)

Information on abundance of Ozette Lake sockeye comes from visual counts
at a weir across the lake outlet, therefore the counts presented
represent total run size. The estimates of total run size have been
revised upwards since the time of the last status review in 1997, due to
resampling of data using new video camera counting technology (Figure
D.2.2.1). The Makah Fisheries biologists estimate that previous counts
of adult sockeye returning to the lake have been underestimates, and
they have attempted to correct run-size estimates based on their
assessments of human error and variations in inter-annual run-timing
(Makah Fisheries 2000; Table D.2.2.1). The run-size estimates are very
uncertain---an estimate of the 95% confidence interval around the 2001
count is N = 3,717 (2,815 -- 5,416) (J. Fieberg memo to A. Ritchie and
M. Crewson, September, 2002). The most recent 5-year geometric mean of
sockeye returning to Ozette Lake is 2,267 adults. Since run-size
estimates before 1998 are likely to be even more unreliable than recent
counts, and the new counting technology has resulted in an increase in
estimated run sizes, no statistical estimation of trends is reported.
The current trends in abundance are unknown for the beach spawning
aggregations. Although overall abundance appears to have declined from
historical levels, it is not known whether this resulted in fewer
spawning aggregations, lower abundances at each aggregation, or both.

The adults remain in the lake for an extended period of time (return
April-August; spawn late October-February) before spawning on beaches or
in the tributaries, and the pre-spawning mortality is not known.
Therefore, it is not clear what the escapement levels to the spawning
aggregations might be.

Table D.2.2.1. Estimated run size, natural origin recruits (NOR) to Lake
Ozette and to Umbrella Creek (UC), and the fraction of fish returning to
Umbrella Creek that are of hatchery origin in Lake Ozette sockeye salmon
from 1978-2001 (Makah Fisheries 2000, M. Crewson, Makah Fisheries,
unpublished data).

  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  **Year**       **Total Run    **Lake NOR**   **UC NOR**     **UC Hatchery
                 Size**                                       Origin**

  1978           1,690          nd             nd             nd

  1979           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1980           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1981           350            nd             nd             nd

  1982           2,123          nd             nd             nd

  1983           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1984           502            nd             nd             nd

  1985           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1986           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1987           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1988           3,599          nd             nd             nd

  1989           603            nd             nd             nd

  1990           385            nd             nd             nd

  1991           684            nd             nd             nd

  1992           2,548          nd             nd             nd

  1993           nd             nd             nd             nd

  1994           585            nd             nd             nd

  1995           nd             nd             nd             44

  1996           1,778          1,699          79             0

  1997           1,133          998            nd             135

  1998           1,406          1,310          nd             96

  1999           2,076          1,676          149            251

  2000           4,399          1,293                         3,106

  2001           4,116          591            3,525          
  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

The sockeye returning to Umbrella Creek have averaged more than 10% of
the total run size to Lake Ozette from 1995 to 1999, and possibly this
fraction has been higher in the last 2 years (Makah Fisheries 2000, Mike
Crewson, Makah Fisheries, pers. comm.). A portion of the Umbrella creek
hatchery sockeye were marked as juveniles beginning in the late 1980s,
and results of monitoring of these marks on returning adults indicates
that natural origin spawners in Umbrella Creek in 1999 ranged from
21.4%-52.9% (Makah Fisheries 2000).

Age data from otolith samples in 2000 and 2001 in Umbrella Creek,
Allen's and Olsen's beaches suggest that a small fraction of 5-year old
fish do occur in Umbrella Creek and Olsen's beach subpopulations (Table
D.2.2.2). Previous estimates of returns from different brood years will
be affected by these age data, since early analyses assumed 100% 4-year
old sockeye.

Based on examination of carcasses retrieved from Allen's and Olsen's
beaches for otolith marks applied to hatchery fish, straying of hatchery
fish from the Umbrella Creek program appears to be very low (Makah
Fisheries 2000).

Table D.2.2.2. Percentages of 5-year old fish sampled from otoliths in
carcasses in sockeye subpopulations in Lake Ozette (Source: M. Crewson,
Makah Fisheries, pers. commun.).

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
                          **% 5-year olds**       

  **Sub-population**      **2000 (n samples)**    **2001 (n samples)**

  Olsen's beach           2.1% (47)               1.2% (81)

  Allen's beach           0% (51)                 0% (7)

  Umbrella creek          3.8% (183)              18.5% (195)\*
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

^\*^One out of 195 fish sampled from Umbrella Creek was a 6-year old

**Updated threats information**

The Makah Fisheries staff has been working with the Lake Ozette steering
committee to identify factors for decline in Ozette Lake sockeye. Thus
far, primary sources of threats to VSP parameters include: 1) loss of
adequate quality and quantity of spawning and rearing habitat, 2)
predation and disruption of natural predator-prey relationships, 3)
introduction of non-native fish and plant species, 4) past
over-exploitation, 5) poor ocean conditions, and 6) interactions among
those factors. There has been no directed harvest on Ozette Lake sockeye
since 1982, and commercial fisheries stopped in 1974 (Gustafson et al.
1997, Makah Fisheries 2000).

Previous releases of hatchery fish in Ozette Lake have been relatively
low magnitude, but some of the releases were from sockeye stocks outside
the ESU or were from Ozette kokanee-sockeye hybrids (Gustafson et al.
1997). The latest artificial propagation program in Ozette Lake has
focused on sockeye introductions into Big River and Umbrella Creek
tributaries; chosen because of their apparent suitable spawning habitat
and relatively low numbers of naturally spawning kokanee. The Umbrella
Creek hatchery has been in place since 1982. The first egg source was
from the Quinault River, and progeny were hatched at Umbrella Creek,
reared in a net pen in Ozette Lake, and released in June of 1983. From
1983 to 1999, all eggs were collected from Olsen's or Allen's beach
spawners. Beginning in 2000, the source for future broodstock for
tributary releases will be from returns to tributaries, primarily
Umbrella Creek. The SSHAG group (2003) determined that the Umbrella
Creek hatchery stock would have a category score of 1 or 2 (see Appendix
D.1).

Predation on Ozette Lake sockeye by harbor seals and river otters has
been monitored by the Makah Tribe and the NMFS Marine Mammal Lab, and
biologists believe that pre-spawning predation rates could be
significant. Predation by both otters and seals has been observed in the
lake and in the outlet river, especially in the vicinity of the counting
weir (Makah Fisheries 2000). In addition, predation scars (ranging from
scratches to bite marks to lack of heads) on carcasses sampled and
adults counted are noted.

The majority of Ozette Lake and the Ozette River lie within the
boundaries of Olympic National Park; but the majority of the land in the
Ozette Lake watershed is owned by private timber companies (Makah
Fisheries 2000). Recent accelerated timber harvest, road-building
activity, and forest practice and water quality violations are reported
in a recent analysis by the Makah Tribe (Makah Fisheries 2000). New
activities related to mitigating and improving degraded habitat quality
could include the Forest and Fish Agreement (if implemented).

**D.3. PRELIMINARY SOCKEYE BRT CONCLUSIONS**

## Ozette Lake

A majority of the BRT votes for this ESU were cast in the "likely to
become endangered" category, with the remainder about equally split
between the "danger of extinction," and "not likely to become
endangered" categories. Moderately high concerns for all VSP elements
are indicated by mean risk matrix scores ranging from 3.0 for diversity
to 3.8 for spatial structure (Table D.3.1). Risk assessment for this ESU
continues to be hampered by very incomplete data. Although significant
efforts to improve this situation have been taken recently, the process
of perfecting the new techniques and adjusting for biases in previous
data is still in progress. It appears that overall abundance is low for
a population that represents an entire ESU and may be substantially
below historic levels. The BRT was concerned about reports that habitat
degradation in the lake has resulted in loss of numerous sites suitable
for beach spawners, but accurately assessing the situation is difficult
because of poor visibility in the lake. The number of returning adults
in the last few years has increased, but a substantial (but uncertain)
fraction of these appear to be of hatchery origin, leading again to
uncertainty regarding growth rate and productivity of the natural
component of the ESU. Another uncertainty noted by the BRT related to
reports that pre-spawning predation by harbor seals and river otters may
be significant, but how large a factor this is and how it compares with
historic patterns is not known.

## Redfish Lake

The BRT was unanimous in assessing the status of this ESU: 100% of the
likelihood votes were in the "danger of extinction" category. Mean risk
matrix scores were extremely high (4.9-5.0) for every VSP element (Table
D.3.1). On the positive side, the captive broodstock program initiated
as an emergency measure in 1991 has at least temporarily rescued this
ESU from the brink of extinction, and associated research has provided a
great deal of information about the biology of this species and its
environment. Return of over 200 adults from the hatchery program in 2000
is considered encouraging, but the status of the natural population
remains extremely precarious. Only 16 naturally produced adults have
returned since the listing in 1991, and all have been taken into the
captive program.

Table D.3.1. Summary of risk scores (1 = low to 5 = high) for four VSP
categories (see section "Factors Considered in Status Assessments" for a
description of the risk categories) for the two sockeye ESUs reviewed.
Data presented are means (range).

+---------------------+---------+-------------+-------------+--------+
| # ESU               | **Abun  | **Growth    | **Spatial   | *      |
|                     | dance** | Rate/Pro    | Structure   | *Diver |
|                     |         | ductivity** | and         | sity** |
|                     |         |             | Con         |        |
|                     |         |             | nectivity** |        |
+---------------------+---------+-------------+-------------+--------+
| Redfish Lake        | 5.0     | 5.0 (5-5)   | 4.9 (4-5)   | 5.0    |
|                     | (5-5)   |             |             | (5-5)  |
+---------------------+---------+-------------+-------------+--------+
| Lake Ozette         | 3.7     | 3.5 (3-4)   | 3.8 (3-5)   | 3.0    |
|                     | (3-4)   |             |             | (2-4)  |
+---------------------+---------+-------------+-------------+--------+

**D.4 References**

Atkinson, C. E., J. H. Rose, and O. T. Duncan. 1967. Salmon of the North
Pacific Ocean‑‑Part IV. Spawning populations of North Pacific salmon. 4.
Pacific salmon in the United States. Int. North Pac. Fish. Comm. Bull.
23:43‑223.

Bevan, D., J. Harville, P. Bergman, T. Bjornn, J. Crutchfield, P.
Klingeman, and J. Litchfield. 1994. Snake Salmon Recovery Team: final
recommendations to the National Marine Fisheries Service. May 1994. Rob
Jones, Recovery Plan Coordinator. National Marine Fisheries Service,
Portland, Oregon.

Number range CHAPTERBjornn, T. C., D. R. Craddock, and D. R. Corley.
1968. Migration and survival of Redfish Lake, Idaho, sockeye salmon,
*Oncorhynchus nerka*. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 97(4): 360-373.

Burgner, R. L. 1991. Life history of sockeye salmon *Oncorhynchus
nerka*. *In* C. Groot and L. Margolis (editors), Pacific salmon life
histories, p. 3-117. Univ. British Columbia Press, Vancouver, B.C.,
Canada

Chapman, D. W., W. S. Platts, D. Park, and M. Hill. 1990. Status of
Snake River sockeye salmon. Final report, 90 p. (Available from Pacific
Northwest Utilities Conference Committee, 101 SW Main Street, Suite 810,
Portland, OR 97204.)

Frost, D. A., W. C. McAuley, D. J. Maynard, and T. A. Flagg. 2002.
Redfish Lake sockeye salmon captive broodstock rearing and research,
2001, Annual Report. Report to Bonneville Power Administration, Contract
No. 00004464, Project No. 199204000, 27 electronic pages (BPA Report
DOE/BP-00004464-1). (Available online at:
http://www.efw.bpa.gov/Environment/EW/EWP/DOCS/REPORTS/
HATCHERY/A00004464-1.pdf)

Gustafson, R. G., T. C. Wainwright, G. A. Winans, F. W. Waknitz, L. T.
Parker, and R. S. Waples. 1997. Status review of sockeye salmon from
Washington and Oregon. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo.
NMFS-NWFSC-33, 282 p.

Hebdon, J. L., M. Elmer, and P. Kline 1999. Snake River sockeye salmon
captive broodstock program research element. Annual Progress Report
January 1, 1999--December 31, 1999. Report to Bonneville Power
Administration, Contract No. 00000167-00001, Project No. 199107200, 56
electronic pages (BPA Report DOE/BP-00000167-1). (Available online at:
http://www.efw.bpa.gov/ Environment/EW/EWP/DOCS/REPORTS/HATCHERY/\
A00000167-1.pdf)

Kline, P. A., and C. Willard. 2001. Snake River sockeye salmon captive
broodstock program hatchery element. Annual Progress Report January 1,
2000 - December 31, 2000. Report to Bonneville Power Administration,
Contract No. 00000167, Project No. 199107200, 42 electronic pages. (BPA
Report DOE/BP-00000167-2) (Available online at:
http://www.efw.bpa.gov/Environment/EW/EWP/DOCS/
REPORTS/HATCHERY/A00000167-2.pdf)

Kohler, A., R. Griswold, and D. Taki, Snake River sockeye salmon habitat
and limnological research. Project No. 9107-100, 97 electronic pages,
(BPA Report DOE/BP-00004343-3). (Available online at:
http://www.efw.bpa.gov/
Environment/EW/EWP/DOCS/REPORTS/HABITAT/H00004343-3.pdf)

Makah Fisheries Management. 2000. Lake Ozette sockeye hatchery and
genetic management plan. Biological Assessment Section 7 consultation.
Prepared by Makah Fisheries Management for Bureau of Indian Affairs.
October 23, 2000.

Meier, R. 1998. Letter from R. Meier (Rayonier Northwest Forest
Resources) to G. Griffin (Protected Resources Division, NMFS Northwest
Region) dated 22 June 1998, re. "Comments on 'Endangered and threatened
species: proposed threatened status and designated critical habitat for
Ozette Lake, Washington sockeye salmon.'" 9 pp. + attachments.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1990. STATUS REVIEW: Listing
Endangered and Threatened Species; Notice of Status Review for Sockeye
Salmon (*Oncorhynchus nerka*). Federal Register \[April 9, 1990\]
55(68): 13181-13182.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1991a. PROPOSED RULE:
Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Endangered Status for Snake
River Sockeye Salmon. Federal Register \[Docket 910379-107, April 5,
1991\] 56(66): 14055-14067.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1991b. FINAL RULE: Endangered
and Threatened Species; Endangered Status for Snake River Sockeye
Salmon. Federal Register \[Docket 910379-1256, November 20, 1991\]
56(224): 58619-58624.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1995. Federal Register Vol.
60, No. 74, \[I.D. 040795A\] Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and
Plants; Notice of Availability of a Proposed Recovery Plan for Review
and Comment; Public Hearings. April 18, 1995. p. 19388.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1998. PROPOSED RULE:
Endangered and threatened species: Proposed threatened status and
designated critical habitat for Ozette Lake, Washington sockeye salmon.
Federal Register \[Docket 980219043-8043-01, March 10, 1998\] 63(46):
11750-11771.

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 1999. FINAL RULE: Endangered
and Threatened Species; Threatened Status for Ozette Lake Sockeye Salmon
in Washington. Federal Register \[Docket 980219043--9068--02, March 25,
1999\] 64(57): 14528-14536.

Ricker, W. E. 1938. "Residual" and kokanee salmon in Cultus Lake. J.
Fish. Res. Board Can. 4(3):192-218.

Rieman, B. E., D. L. Myers, and R. L. Nielsen. 1994. Use of otolith
microchemistry to discriminate *Oncorhynchus nerka* of resident and
anadromous origin. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51:68-77.

SSHAG (Salmon Steelhead Hatchery Assessment Group). 2003. Hatchery
Broodstock Summaries and Assessments for Chum Salmon, Coho Salmon,
Chinook Salmon, and Steelhead within Listed and ESUs. Technical review
draft. NMFS Northwest and Southwest Fisheries Science Centers.

Waples, R. S. 1991a. Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp., and the
definition of \"species\" under the Endangered Species Act. Mar. Fish.
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Waples, R. S., O. W. Johnson, and R. P. Jones, Jr. 1991. Status review
for Snake River sockeye salmon. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS
F/NWC-195, 23 p.

Waples, R. S., O. W. Johnson, and R. P. Jones, Jr. 1991. Status review
for Snake River sockeye salmon. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS
F/NWC-195, 23 p.

Waples, R. S., P. B. Aebersold, and G. A. Winans. 1997. Population
genetic structure and life history variability in *Oncorhynchus nerka*
from the Snake River Basin. Final Report of Research, Bonneville Power
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WCSSBRT (West Coast Sockeye Salmon Biological Review Team). 1999. Status
review update for sockeye salmon from Ozette Lake and Baker River,
Washington. Internal memo. 40 p. (Available at:
http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/1salmon/salmesa/pubs/ sru981217.pdf).

Winans, G. A., P. B. Aebersold, and R. S. Waples. 1996. Allozyme
variability of *Oncorhynchus nerka* in the Pacific Northwest, with
special consideration to populations of Redfish Lake, Idaho. Trans. Am.
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Soc. Symp. 17:195-216.

D.5. Appendices

Appendix D.5.1. Preliminary SSHAG (2003) categorizations of hatchery
populations of the Ozette Lake sockeye ESU. See "Artificial Propagation"
in General Introduction for explanation of the categories.

+--------------+-----------------+-----+--------+---------------------+
| **ESU**      | **Stock**       | *   | **B    | **SSHAG Category**  |
|              |                 | *Ru | asin** |                     |
|              |                 | n** |        |                     |
+--------------+-----------------+-----+--------+---------------------+
| #            | Umbrella Creek  |     | Ozette | 1 or 2              |
|  Ozette Lake |                 |     |        |                     |
+--------------+-----------------+-----+--------+---------------------+

[^1]: The Biological Review Team (BRT) for the updated status review for
    West Coast Sockeye Salmon included Thomas Cooney, Dr. Richard
    Gustafson, Dr. Robert Iwamoto, Gene Matthews, Dr. Paul McElhany, Dr.
    Mary Ruckelshaus, Dr. Thomas Wainwright, Dr. Robin Waples, Dr. John
    Williams, and Dr. Gary Winans, from NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science
    Center (NWFSC); Dr. Peter Adams and Dr. Eric Bjorkstedt, from NMFS
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC); and Dr. Reg
    Reisenbichler from the Northwest Biological Science Center, USGS
    Biological Resources Division, Seattle.