Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 3/30/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** SF4011

SF4011

**South Africa, Republic of**

**Grain and Feed**

**Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Rachel Bickford

U.S. Embassy, South Africa

**Prepared by:**

Herman Germishuis

**Report Highlights:**

South Africa's 2003 corn crop currently maturing is estimated at 7.7
million tons, about 2 million tons less than the previous crop. The
decrease is due mainly to a market related cutback in area planted. With
a 2 million ton plus carry over from the current season, the crop should
be able to supply domestic needs and allow about one million tons of
white corn exports. Yellow corn is in short supply and imports are
likely to reach 700,000 tons in My04/05. Wheat production is expected to
increase this year but import demand will stay high.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Unscheduled Report

Pretoria \[SF1\]

\[SF\]

**SUMMARY**

South Africa's 2003 corn crop is officially estimated at about 7.7
million tons compared to the 9.7 million tons produced in the previous
season. The decline is mainly due to a 18% cutback in area planted
brought about by poor price expectations. The rainy season usually
starts in October and goes through April. In some areas the rainfall
season started late and was followed by a December dry spell. Rainfall
then improved in the first quarter of 2004.

At this stage the crop estimate may be optimistic and 7.5 million tons
may be a better indication of the current status of the crop.

Bolstered by an expected carry over of about 2.3 million tons at the end
of April this year, supplies will however be sufficient to supply
domestic needs of about 8.6 million tons and allow exports of about one
million tons of white corn. Due to an anomaly in the product mix, yellow
corn is in short supply. Imports are likely to reach about 400,000 tons
in the current season and 700,000 tons in My04/05.

Indications are that wheat plantings from May this year will rebound to
about 850,000 hectares after only 750,000 hectares were planted in 2003.
This could produce a crop of about 1.95 million tons after only 1.47
million tons were produced this year. Import demand will however stay
high with My 2003/04 imports expected to reach 1.2 million tons and My
2004/05 demand about 900,000 tons. Exports and re-exports generally
amount to more than 300,000 tons.

This report also looks at the total cereals trade including rice.

[www.sagis.org.za]{.underline}

[www.grainsa.co.za]{.underline}

[www.safex.co.za]{.underline}

[www.fews.net]{.underline}

[www.wfp.org]{.underline}

[www.grains.org](http://www.grains.org/)

[www.pecad.fas.usda.gov]{.underline}

# CEREALS

# Trade

South Africa's 2003 calendar year trade data compiled by the South
African Revenue Service was released recently. The data is for the
Southern African Customs Union, including South Africa and the BLNS
countries, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. It shows that the
region's grain trade balance is negative, with imports exceeding
exports.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  '000 Mt.                CY 2002                 CY 2003

  Grain Imports           2781                    2206

  Grain Exports           961                     863

  BOT                     -1820                   -1343
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Weekly import and export data for both wheat and corn are available on
the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) website,
www.sagis.org.za

## Imports

The main regular imports are rice and wheat, with corn imports more
irregular. The following table contains the details:

# 

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Imports: Mt.      CY 2001           CY 2002           CY 2003 %

  Rice              540,465           747,861           790,802 36%

  Wheat             252,899           657,696           701,433 31%

  Corn              109,264           1,055,355         514,164 23%

  Barley            144,715           196,387           109,131 5%

  Sorghum           401               66,807            42,009 2%

  Oats              24,438            24,481            19,460 1%

  Durum             80,333            27,178            20,339 1%

  Others            1,398             5,189             9,049 1%

  TOTAL             1,153,913         2,780,954         2,206,387
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

# 

Due to the dominance of rice in the imports, Thailand shows up as the
main supplier, followed by the US, mainly wheat and corn, India, mainly
rice, and Argentina, mainly corn.

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Imports: Mt.      CY 2001           CY 2002           CY 2003 %

  Thailand          343,702           357,262           390,076 18%

  United States     74,421            649,817           385,563 17%

  India             81,209            286,733           316,633 14%

  Argentina         268,185           387,221           265,499 12%

  China             732               190,129           259,893 12%

  Germany           0                 101,617           151,859 7%

  Australia         189,680           187,311           61,475 3%

  Canada            26,814            134,962           60,376 3%

  Poland            0                 55,659            59,750 3%

  Kazakhstan        0                 116,300           54,000 2%

  Brazil            60,882            124,195           18,185 1%

  Others            108,288           189,748           183,078 8%

  TOTAL             1,153,913         2,780,954         2,206,387

                                                        
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

# 

# 

# Exports

Corn is the main export outside the Southern African Region. Sales to
the BLNS countries are not shown. Some of the exports recorded are
re-exports moving through the South African transport system.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  Exports Mt.             CY 2002                 CY 2003

  Corn                    774,865                 789,764

  Wheat                   164,432                 56,838

  Rice                    18,872                  12,721

  Others                  2,937                   3,206

  Total                   961,106                 862,529
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Excluding the BLNS countries the main export destinations are shown in
the following table. It is noticeable that with the advent of the free
market system regional exports increased

and unprofitable overseas exports diminished.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  Exports Mt.             CY 2002                 CY 2003

  Zimbabwe                450,717                 498,656

  Zambia                  284,649                 107,408

  Mozambique              25,627                  89,751

  Kenya                   449                     49,826

  Japan                   75,378                  27,100

  Angola                  4,943                   25,612

  Tanzania                54                      23,363

  Congo                   17,027                  4,860

  Malawi                  77,918                  1,344

  Others                  24,344                  34,609

  Total                   961,106                 862,529
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

# 

# CORN

+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**      | **S    | #     |        |       |       |       |
|                  | outh** | ### A |        |       |       |       |
|                  |        | frica |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **     |       |        |       |       |       |
|                  | Corn** |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| '000 ha.         | 2002   | Re    | 2003   | Est   | 2004  | For   |
|                  |        | vised |        | imate |       | ecast |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| '000 mt.         | USDA   | Post  | USDA   | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                  | \      | \[    | \      | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                  | [Old\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year    |        | 05    |        | 05    |       | 05    |
| Begin**          |        | /2003 |        | /2004 |       | /2005 |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 3650   | 3650  | 2950   | 3005  | 0     | 3300  |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 1943   | 1945  | 2118   | 2260  | 468   | 1010  |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production       | 9675   | 9675  | 7500   | 7670  | 0     | 9300  |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 250    | 400   | 550    | 700   | 0     | 300   |
| Imports          |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports  | 617    | 617   | 500    | 750   | 0     | 950   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import   | 21     | 21    | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.             |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 11868  | 12020 | 10168  | 10630 | 468   | 10610 |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 1100   | 1150  | 1000   | 1000  | 0     | 1000  |
| Exports          |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports  | 1141   | 1141  | 900    | 850   | 0     | 950   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Feed Dom.        | 4100   | 4050  | 4100   | 4100  | 0     | 4125  |
| Consumption      |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 8650   | 8610  | 8700   | 8620  | 0     | 8650  |
| Consumption      |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 2118   | 2260  | 468    | 1010  | 0     | 960   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 11868  | 12020 | 10168  | 10630 | 0     | 10610 |
| DISTRIBUTION     |        |       |        |       |       |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+

**Production**

The second official estimate of South Africa's 2003 corn crop was
released on March 19, 2004 (2003 referring to the year of planting). The
total crop is estimated at about 7.7 million tons, 21% less than the 9.7
million 2002 crop. The total area planted declined by 17.6% due to a
combination of market and weather factors. As a result of a late start
to the rainy season, and a December/January dry spell, the average yield
is also expected to decline by about 4%. Since the first estimate was
made on February 19, rainfall has improved considerably and the second
estimate shows an increase of 650,000 tons, or 9% on the initial
estimate. At this stage the main concern is early frost as many fields
were planted late. The 2^nd^ estimate follows:

  ------------ ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ------------
  Crop         FAS 2002   MY 03/04                FAS 2003   MY 04/05   

  Corn         Area       Yield      Production   Area       Yield      Production

  Commercial   '000 ha.   Mt./ha.    '000 mt.     '000 ha.   Mt./ha     '000 mt.

  White        2232       2.85       6366         1728       2.64       4556

  Yellow       953        3.17       3026         918        3.15       2893

  Total        3185       2.95       9391         2645       2.82       7448

  Developing                                                            

  White        368        0.60       221          282        0.60       168

  Yellow       98         0.66       65           79         0.71       56

  Total        466        0.61       286          361        0.62       224

  Total corn                                                            

  White        2600       2.53       6587         2010       2.35       4724

  Yellow       1418       2.18       3091         997        2.96       2949

  Total        3651       2.65       9678         3006       2.55       7672
  ------------ ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ------------

The crop in the developing sector is still estimated at about 224,000
tons compared to 286,000 tons last season.

The commercial crop estimate is the important factor in the supply and
distribution.

The 17% or 540,000 ha. decline in area planted compared to the previous
season obviously had the major effect on the potential crop, as the
average yield expected only decreased by 4.4%. The decision to cut back
the planted area was mainly a marketing decision based on poor price
expectations although the late rains in some areas strengthened this
position.

The following table compares the average crop for the past five seasons
to the first and second estimates:

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  5 year average    FAS 98 to 02      Rounded           

                    Area '000 ha.     Yield Mt./ha.     Production '000
                                                        Mt.

  White             1900 (1902)       2.9               5600 (5570)

  Yellow            1100 (1107)       3.2               3500 (3525)

  Total             3000 (3005)       3.0               9100 (9095)

  FAS 2003 1^st^                                        
  est.                                                  

  White             1725              2.4               4170

  Yellow            910               2.9               2630

  Total             2635              2.6               6800

  FAS 2003 2^nd^                                        
  est.                                                  

  White             1727              2.6               4557

  Yellow            918               3.2               2893

  Total             2645              2.8               7450
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

The expected average yields do not reflect the hot and dry weather
suffered earlier in the season, which affected the early plantings. Late
plantings constitutes a big portion of the crop and a high percentage of
the crop is still maturing. The latest 2003 estimate shows that the
expected yields in Mpumalanga are actually better than last season. As
expected, yields in the other two main production areas of the Free
State and the North-West Province, are expected to decline.

  ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
             FAS 2002                         FAS 2003              

             Area       Yield      Prod.      Area       Yield      Prod.

             '000 ha.   Mt/ha.     '000 mt.   '000 ha.   Mt/ha.     '000 mt.

  Free State                                                        

  white      805        3.12       2515       620        2.55       1581

  yellow     310        2.65       822        310        2.50       775

  Mpumal.                                                           

  white      280        3.48       975        250        3.50       875

  yellow     280        3.24       908        260        3.25       845

  North-W                                                           

  White      960        2.22       2135       725        1.28       925

  Yellow     210        2.22       466        200        2.25       450
  ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

## Consumption

Commercial deliveries, that is corn delivered to the silos according to
the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS), forms the basis of
the commercial supply and distribution.

The quantity of corn produced and consumed outside the formal trading
environment is small and estimated as actual figures similar to the
delivery figures does not exist. This amounted to the crop in the
developing sector, 286,000 tons and commercial farm retentions, 425,000
tons, to total 711,000 tons in My 03/04 and an expected 624,000 tons in
My 04/05, or less than 9% of the total consumption. It includes corn
eaten fresh, used for silage, used for on farm feeding, or fields not
harvested but grazed.

To correlate the commercial S&D with a specific crop we use the March to
February deliveries and not the formal May to April marketing year. The
March and April deliveries are then deducted from the May 1 carry over
and added to the new season's deliveries.

The current and forecasted commercial PS&D's are summarized below:

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  FAS 2002            My 2003/04        March /February   

  '000 Metric tons    White             Yellow            Total corn

  Beginning stocks    1265              680               1945

  Crop estimate       6365              3025              9390

  Deliveries          6195              2770              8965

  Farm retentions     170               255               425

  Imports             0                 400               400

  Total Supply        7460              3850              11310

  Exports, whole      1050              100               1150
  grain                                                   

  Dom.Disappearance   4500\*            3400              7900

  Ending stocks       1910              350               2260
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

> \*Including an additional 300,000 tons of white corn used for feed.

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  FAS 2003 estimate   My 2004/05                          

  '000 Metric tons    White             Yellow            Total

  B/Stocks            1910              350               2260

  Crop est.           4555              2895              7450

  Delivery est.       4405              2645              7050

  Farm retentions     150               250               400

  Imports             0                 700               700

  Total supply        6315              3695              10010

  Exports,whole grain 950               50                1000

  Dom.Disappearance   4550\*            3450              8000

  Ending stocks       815               195               1010
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  FAS 2004 forecast   My 2005/06                          

  '000 Metric tons    White             Yellow            Total

  B/Stocks            815               195               1010

  Crop Forecast       5600              3500              9100

  Deliveries          5450              3250              8700

  Farm retentions     150               250               400

  Imports             0                 300               300

  Total supply        6265              3745              10010

  Exports             950               50                1000

  Dom.Disappearance   4575\*            3475              8050

  Ending Stocks       740               220               960
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

## Trade

The corn exports shown in the trade matrix are from the South African
Revenue Service (SARS) as used by the World Trade Atlas but are for the
customs union excluding sales to the BLNS countries as reported before.
The SAGIS figures contain all exports and by simple deduction we can
calculate sales to the BLNS countries. SAGIS now publishes exports by
destination and as soon as we have a full year's data we will be able to
test the hypotheses. The high figures for 2000 and 2001 probably
included quantities going to Zimbabwe and Zambia through Botswana.

  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  Corn Exports   CY 2000        CY 2001        CY 2002        CY 2003

  Zimbabwe       4              1              429            476

  Mozambique     54             43             25             81

  Zambia         1              20             156            71

  Kenya          na             20             0              50

  Japan          197            424            75             27

  Angola         21             20             4              25

  Malawi         0              49             50             1

  Others         367            54             36             59

  SARS Total     644            613            775            790

  BLNS est.      762            718            371            398

  SAGIS Total    1406           1331           1146           1188

                                                              
  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

  ------------------------ ------------- ------------------ -------------
  **Export Trade Matrix**                                   

  **Country**              South         Africa             

  **Commodity**            Corn                             

  Time Period              CY            Units:             000 mt.

  Exports for:             2002                             **2003**

  U.S.                     0             U.S.               0

  Others                                 Others             

  Zimbabwe                 429           Zimbabwe           476

  Mozambique               25            Mozambique         81

  Zambia                   156           Zambia             71

  Kenya                    0             Kenya              50

  Japan                    75            Japan              27

  Angola                   4             Angola             25

  Tanzania                 0             Tanzania           23

  Cape Verde               0             Cape Verde         9

  Liberia                  0             Liberia            7

  Total for Others         689                              769

  Others not Listed        86                               21

  Grand Total              775                              790
  ------------------------ ------------- ------------------ -------------

The import trade matrix contains some imports for re-export.

+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| **Import Trade         |            |                  |            |
| Matrix**               |            |                  |            |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| **Country**            | South      | ### Africa       |            |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| **Commodity**          | Corn       |                  |            |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Time Period            | CY         | Units:           | 000 mt.    |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Imports for:           | 2002       |                  | **2003**   |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| U.S.                   | 469        | U.S.             | 33         |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Others                 |            | Others           |            |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| China                  | 186        | China            | 251        |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Argentina              | 218        | Argentina        | 209        |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Brazil                 | 124        | Brazil           | 18         |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
|                        |            |                  |            |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Total for Others       | 528        |                  | 478        |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Others not Listed      | 58         |                  | 3          |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Grand Total            | 1055       |                  | 514        |
+------------------------+------------+------------------+------------+

## WHEAT

+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Country**      | **S    | #     |        |       |        |       |
|                  | outh** | ### A |        |       |        |       |
|                  |        | frica |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **W    |       |        |       |        |       |
|                  | heat** |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| 1000 ha.         | 2002   | Re    | 2003   | Est   | 2004   | For   |
|                  |        | vised |        | imate |        | ecast |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| 1000 mt.         | USDA   | Post  | USDA   | Post  | USDA   | Post  |
|                  | \      | \[    | \      | \[    | \      | \[    |
|                  | [Old\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Market Year    |        | 10    |        | 10    |        | 10    |
| Begin**          |        | /2002 |        | /2003 |        | /2004 |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 941    | 941   | 748    | 748   | 0      | 851   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 587    | 588   | 898    | 897   | 576    | 595   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Production       | 2320   | 2387  | 1428   | 1473  | 0      | 1945  |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 871    | 870   | 1200   | 1200  | 0      | 900   |
| Imports          |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Imports  | 1024   | 1018  | 1200   | 1200  | 0      | 85    |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Import   | 63     | 63    | 0      | 600   | 0      | 0     |
| U.S.             |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 3778   | 3845  | 3526   | 3570  | 576    | 3440  |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 310    | 310   | 300    | 320   | 0      | 325   |
| Exports          |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Exports  | 331    | 328   | 300    | 320   | 0      | 300   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Feed Dom.        | 10     | 12    | 10     | 10    | 0      | 10    |
| Consumption      |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 2570   | 2638  | 2650   | 2655  | 0      | 2665  |
| Consumption      |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 898    | 897   | 576    | 595   | 0      | 450   |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 3778   | 3845  | 3526   | 3570  | 0      | 3440  |
| DISTRIBUTION     |        |       |        |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+

## Production

A survey undertaken by the Dept. of Agriculture at the end of February
gives an early indication of 2004 planting intentions for wheat. The
survey shows that producers intend to increase the area planted by
103,200 ha. (13.8%), to 851,200 hectares. The main areas are: the Free
State, with 378,000 ha. (44.4%), followed by the Western Cape with
352,000 ha. (41.4%). The area under irrigation is estimated at 12%. The
851,000 ha. is likely to produce a crop of about 1.95 million tons under
normal conditions. The survey was done before recent good rains improved
soil moisture conditions in the Free State. This could lead to a further
increase in the area planted.

The final estimate of the 2003 crop was 1.443 million tons but
deliveries has surpassed this and the final figure is likely to reach
about 1.473 million tons.

## Trade

South Africa imports wheat and exports wheat and flour. In addition,
there are imports for neighboring countries moving trough the local
infrastructure. Both the weekly and monthly imports and exports are
available on the SAGIs website. The following table highlights the
situation for October 03 to March 19, 04 as supplied by SAGIS:

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  IMPORTS, mt.      For South Africa  For neighbors     Total

  Oct.03 to March                                       
  19,04                                                 

  From USA          291,546           96,365            387,911

  Canada            0                 13,586            13,586

  Germany           12,199            3,873             16,072

  United Kingdom    22,420            0                 22,420

  Australia         151,951           0                 151,951

  Argentina         26,430            2,000             28,430

  Total:            504,546           115,824           620,370

                                                        
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  EXPORTS, mt.      Whole grain       Flour             Total

  Botswana          62,093                              

  Lesotho           48,770                              

  Swaziland         16,398                              

  Zimbabwe          13,589                              

  Zambia            15,987                              

  Namibia           5,931                               

  Total             162,768           9,000             171,768

                                                        
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

The trade matrices are on a calendar year basis and the SARS import
figures correlates well with the SAGIS figures for imports for South
Africa only, but does not show imports for re- export

+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 2002   | I      | SAGIS  |        | 2003   | I      |        |        |
|        | mports |        |        |        | mports |        |        |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 1000   | For SA | For    | Total  | 1000   | For SA | For    | Total  |
| mt     |        |        |        | mt     |        | export |        |
|        |        | export |        |        |        |        |        |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| J      | 65     | 0      | 65     | Jan.   | 157    | 19     | 176    |
| anuary |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Fe     | 45     | 28     | 73     | Feb.   | 55     | 5      | 60     |
| bruary |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| March  | 36     | 41     | 77     | March  | 115    | 12     | 127    |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| April  | 49     | 16     | 65     | April  | 100    | 1      | 101    |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| May    | 17     | 3      | 20     | May    | 32     | 6      | 38     |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| June   | 25     | 19     | 44     | June   | 0      | 0      | 0      |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| July   | 31     | 13     | 44     | July   | 0      | 0      | 0      |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| August | 52     | 0      | 52     | Aug.   | 0      | 6      | 6      |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Sept.  | 65     | 20     | 85     | Sept.  | 21     | 0      | 21     |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| O      | 138    | 16     | 154    | Oct.   | 73     | 27     | 100    |
| ctober |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Nov.   | 51     | 3      | 54     | Nov.   | 52     | 30     | 82     |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Dec.   | 78     | 55     | 133    | Dec.   | 100    | 32     | 132    |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| TOTAL  | 652    | 214    | 866    | Total  | 705    | 138    | 843    |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+

  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------
  **Import Trade                                              
  Matrix**                                                    

  **Country**            South Africa                         

  **Commodity**          Wheat                                

  Time Period            Jan-Dec             Units:           Mt.

  Imports for:           2002                                 **2003**

  U.S.                   68752               U.S.             230327

  Others                                     Others           

  Germany                101294              Germany          151818

  Ukraine                20382               Ukraine          66765

  Poland                 55659               Poland           59750

  Kazakhstan             116300              Kazakhstan       54000

  Argentina              140390              Argentina        49275

  Russia                 0                   Russia           33000

  U.K.                   24742               U.K.             22500

  Australia              21999               Australia        21999

                                                               

  Total for Others       480766                               459107

  Others not Listed      108178                               11999

  Grand Total            657696                               701433
  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------

The export figures from SARS, however, does not seem to correlate with
anything.

  --------- -------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ----------- --------
  Exports   2002     1000 mt   SAGIS    Exports   2003     1000 mt     SAGIS

  Flour     SA wheat Re        Total    Flour     SA wheat Re-export   Total
                     -export                                           

  7         11       8         26       3         2        20          25

  4         7        17        28       3         15       35          53

  8         11       21        40       4         19       4           27

  8         6        27        41       4         22       8           34

  6         7        16        29       1         17       3           21

  6         3        9         18       2         11       6           19

  6         7        24        37       2         15       1           18

  6         5        13        24       2         18       4           24

  3         8        12        23       3         15       2           20

  9         3        20        32       2         4        20          26

  4         1        7         12       1         6        21          28

  4         0        21        25       2         16       16          34

  71        69       195       335      29        160      140         329
  --------- -------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ----------- --------

  ------------------------ ------------- ------------------ -------------
  **Country**              South Africa,                    

  **Commodity**            Wheat                            

  Time Period              Jan-Dec       Units:             Mt.

  Exports for:             2002                             **2003**

  U.S.                     0             U.S.               0

  Others                                 Others             

  Zambia                   119215        Zambia             30757

  Zimbabwe                 17444         Zimbabwe           17410

  Mozambique               15            Mozambique         8301

  Malawi                   27401         Malawi             300

                                                             

  Total for Others         164075                           56768

  Others not Listed        357                              70

  Grand Total              164432                           56838
  ------------------------ ------------- ------------------ -------------

## RICE

+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Country**      | **S    | ###   |       |       |        |       |
|                  | outh** | ### A |       |       |        |       |
|                  |        | frica |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **R    | # M   |       |       |        |       |
|                  | ice,** | illed |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
|                  | 2002   | Re    | 2003  | Est   | 2004   | For   |
|                  |        | vised |       | imate |        | ecast |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
|                  | USDA l | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA   | Post  |
|                  | \      | \[    | \[    | \[    | \      | \[    |
|                  | [Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] | [Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| **Market Year    |        | 01    |       | 01    |        | 01    |
| Begin**          |        | /2002 |       | /2003 |        | /2004 |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 41     | 41    | 180   | 0     | 195    | 0     |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Milled           | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0      | 0     |
| Production       |        |       |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Rough Production | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| MILLING RATE     | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0      | 0     |
| (.9999)          |        |       |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Imports    | 800    | 748   | 725   | 791   | 0      | 800   |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Imports  | 725    | 748   | 650   | 791   | 0      | 800   |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Import   | 0      | 75    | 0     | 70    | 0      | 75    |
| U.S.             |        |       |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 841    | 789   | 905   | 791   | 195    | 800   |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Exports    | 11     | 19    | 10    | 13    | 0      | 15    |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Exports  | 10     | 19    | 10    | 13    | 0      | 15    |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 650    | 770   | 700   | 778   | 0      | 785   |
| Consumption      |        |       |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 180    | 0     | 195   | 0     | 0      | 0     |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 841    | 789   | 905   | 791   | 0      | 800   |
| DISTRIBUTION     |        |       |       |       |        |       |
+------------------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+

South Africa does not produce rice and the PS&D is based on imports and
exports. The trade data from the World Trade Atlas is for the Customs
Union including the BLNS countries and the consumption data thus also
includes them.

  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------
  **Import Trade                                              
  Matrix**                                                    

  **Country**            South Africa                         

  **Commodity**          Rice, Milled                         

  Time Period            Jan-Dec             Units:           Mt.

  Imports for:           2002                                 **2003**

  U.S.                   74538               U.S.             69744

  Others                                     Others           

  Thailand               357262              Thailand         390075

  India                  286519              India            316152

  Uruguay                20160               Uruguay          2839

                                                               

  Total for Others       663941                               709066

  Others not Listed      9382                                 11992

  Grand Total            747861                               790802
  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------

  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------
  **Export Trade                                              
  Matrix**                                                    

  **Country**            South Africa                         

  **Commodity**          Rice, Milled                         

  Time Period            Jan-Dec             Units:           Mt.

  Exports for:           2002                                 **2003**

  U.S.                   0                   U.S.             0

  Others                                     Others           

  Zambia                 9009                Zambia           5632

  Zimbabwe               2994                Zimbabwe         4020

  Congo                  5014                Congo            1329

  Mozambique             703                 Mozambique       701

  Angola                 332                 Angola           421

                                                               

  Total for Others       18052                                12103

  Others not Listed      820                                  618

  Grand Total            18872                                12721
  ---------------------- ------------------- ---------------- ------------