##  CHAPTER VII

**FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES**

The FAA provides the aviation community with three distinct air traffic
services: 1) air traffic control tower service at FAA and contract
towered airports; 2) traffic surveillance and aircraft separation by air
route traffic control centers (ARTCC); and 3) flight planning and pilot
briefings at flight service stations (FSS). All four aviation system
user groups\--air carriers, commuter/air taxi, general aviation, and
military\--use these FAA operational services to enhance the flow and
safety of aviation traffic.

Because the four aviation system user groups differ in the demands they
impose on the air traffic system, multiple indicators are used to
describe the total FAA operational workload. No single measure typifies
past trends or future demand for the services provided by the FAA.

**REVIEW OF 2002**[^1]

During 2002 the number of FAA towered airports remained unchanged at
266, while the number of contract towered airports increased by 11 to
217. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of FAA towered airports declined
by 136, and the number of contract towered airports increased by 214.
However, the number of FAA towers has remained constant at 266 since
2000 and is expected to remain at that number throughout the duration of
the forecast.

The addition and/or removal of airports to/from FAA air traffic counts
make comparisons to previous year's activity levels difficult, if not
impossible. To overcome these discontinuities, the FAA reports air
traffic activity at FAA and contract tower facilities on both an
indi­vidual as well as a combined basis. Activity at FAA air route
traffic control centers is not affected by the tower conversions.

# TOWER ACTIVITY

Combined FAA

and Contract Towers

Aircraft activity at the 483 FAA and contract towered airports totaled
64.9 million operations, down 2.0 percent from 2001. In 2002, commercial
activity decreased 5.5 percent with every month below 2001 levels except
for

September when the closing of U.S. airspace following the terrorist
attacks of September 11^th^ depressed prior year activity. Air carrier
operations driven by declining traffic and schedule reductions following
the events of September 11^th^ were down 10.5 percent.

![](media/image1.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

Operations by commuter/air taxi increased by 1.3 percent in 2002, to
11.0 million. Much of the growth was the result of the transfer of lower
density, short-haul markets to commuters, especially the regional jet
operators. In addition, growth in recent years has been stimulated by
commuter code-sharing and schedule tie-in agreements with the larger
commercial air carriers.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

Noncommercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military
operations) increased 0.2 percent in 2002 driven by an increase in
military aviation activity. Noncommercial activity in September was up
43 percent year over year, reflecting the depressed activity following
the September 11^th^ terror attacks. General aviation operations were
down 0.2  percent for the year with itinerant operations down
0.1 percent and local operations down 0.3 percent. Military activity was
up 5.0 percent with itinerant operations up 4.9 percent and local
activity up 5.1 percent.

FAA Towers

On September 30, 2002, there were 266 FAA towered airports. Aircraft
operations at these airports totaled 48.5 million, down 4.2 percent from
2001. Of the four users of the system, commuter/air taxi and military
operations increased during the year, up 1.8 and 0.7 percent,
respectively. The other users of the system, air carrier and general
aviation were down 10.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively.

Contract Towers

On September 30, 2002, there were 217 contract towers funded either
partially of fully by the FAA. Aircraft activity totaled 16.4 million
operations, up 5.1 percent from 2001. Commercial activity decreased
1.9 percent, while noncommercial activity rose 6.0 percent. In 2001 air
carrier activity decreased 8.1 percent, while commuter/air taxi
operations fell 1.1 percent. General aviation operations increased by
5.4 percent while military operations jumped 14.3 per­cent. General
aviation continues to dominate activity at FAA contract towers,
accounting for 82.8 percent of total operations.

Monthly operation counts for the 266 FAA towered airports and the 217
contract towers, by user group, can be found on the internet at:
http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="6.997916666666667in"
height="8.971527777777778in"}

INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

Combined FAA and Contract

Towers

Instrument operations handled at combined FAA and contract towers
totaled 49.6 million, down 2.7 percent from the 2001 activity level. In
2002, FAA towers accounted for 98.4  per­cent of combined total
instrument operations.

![](media/image4.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

Commercial instrument operations decreased 5.0 percent with monthly
levels below 2001 levels until September when the closing of U.S.
airspace following the terrorist attacks of September 11^th^ depressed
prior year activity. Air carrier activity was down 10.0 percent for the
year, while commuter/air taxi instrument operations increased 1.7
percent.

Noncommercial instrument operations remained flat at 23.2 million. The
large year over year increase in September activity reflected the impact
on prior year levels of the September 11^th^ attacks on activity.
General aviation operations fell slightly, down 0.3 percent for the
year, but still accounted for almost 40 percent of total instrument
operations. Military operations increased 1.7 percent, and accounted for
only 7.2 percent of the total.

![](media/image5.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

# FAA Towers 

Instrument operations at the 266 FAA towered airports totaled 48.7
million, a decrease of 2.7 percent. Commercial activity was down
5.0 percent, while noncommercial operations remained flat. In 2002, air
carrier and general aviation instrument operations both decreased, down
10.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Commuter/air taxi activity was up
2.0 percent, while military activity increased 1.8 percent.

Contract Towers

Instrument operations at FAA contract towered airports totaled 811,800,
down 3.3 percent from 2001. Commercial activity decreased 5.2 percent,
while noncommercial activity dropped 0.3 percent. In 2002, air carrier
instrument operations at FAA contract towers decreased 1.0 percent,
while commuter/air taxi dropped the largest of any sector, falling
6.6 percent. General aviation instrument operations recorded the only
increase in activity, up 0.4 percent while military operations decreased
by 3.3 percent.

![](media/image6.wmf){width="6.997916666666667in"
height="9.054166666666667in"}

CENTER ACTIVITY

In 2002, the number of aircraft flying under Instrument Flight Rules
(IFR) handled by FAA ARTCCs totaled 43.7 million, a decrease of
3.3 percent from the 2001 activity counts. The number of commercial
aircraft handled at the Centers (31.6 million) fell 4.6 percent in
2002 with September the only month showing year over year gains (prior
year totals were impacted by the shutdown of U.S. airspace following the
September 11^th^ attacks). The number of air carrier aircraft handled
totaled 22.8 million (down 8.2 per­cent), while the number of
commuter/air taxi aircraft handled totaled 8.8 million (up 6.1 per­cent).

![](media/image7.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

The number of noncommercial aircraft handled (12.1 million) rose 0.3
percent. After being down in the early part of the year, year over year
changes in noncommercial aircraft turned positive during the later half
of the year culminating in September's 12.2 percent increase (driven
primarily by depressed prior year levels following the September 11^th^
attacks). The number of general aviation aircraft handled totaled
8.2 million (up 1.9 percent), while military activity totaled
3.9 million (down 2.9 percent).

![](media/image8.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4208333333333334in"}

FLIGHT SERVICE STATION

ACTIVITY

Total flight services, encompassing pilot briefings, flight plans filed,
and aircraft contacts recorded by FAA Flight Service Stations (FSS)
totaled 29.4 million in 2002, up 0.4 percent from 2001 activity levels.
In 2002, the number of aircraft contacted rose 0.3 percent to
2.97 million, the number of pilot briefings rose by 0.5 percent to 7.46
million, and the number of flight plans originated increased 0.4 percent
to 5.77 million.

The FAA also provides automated flight services, which supplement FSS
activity. The Direct User Access Terminal System (DUATS) provides an
alternative to the FSS for obtaining pilot briefing information and
filing flight plans. Use of this service was introduced in February
1990.

![](media/image9.wmf){width="6.997916666666667in"
height="9.054166666666667in"}

![](media/image10.wmf){width="3.2472222222222222in"
height="2.4631944444444445in"}

In 2002, total DUATS transactions (including flight plans) totaled 16.5
million, an increase of 3.4 percent over 2001. The number of flight
plans filed through DUATS shot up 48.4 percent to 1.2 million. The
number of DUAT transactions (excluding flight plans) decreased
1.5 percent in 2002, from 7.2 million in 2001 to 7.1 million.

When these DUAT services are included with traditional FSS services,
total flight services grew from 45.2 million in 2001 to 45.9 million in
2002, an increase of 1.5 percent.

### FORECAST 

**ASSUMPTIONS**

Forecast growth in FAA workload measures includes not only the demand
imposed on the existing National Airspace System, but also aviation
activity at new locations not previously provided with FAA services.
Workload fore­casts are presented for combined FAA and contract towers,
and separately for FAA facilities and contract towers.

# NUMBER OF FAA FACILITIES

There were 266 FAA towered airports on September 30, 2002. There are 150
radar service areas\--48 terminal radar service areas, 16 class B
(terminal control areas), and 86 class C (airport radar service areas).
The number of FSSs and AFSSs totaled 75 on September 30, 2002: 61 AFSSs
and 14 Alaskan rotational FSSs.

In 2003, the number of contract tower airports will increase from 217 to
224 and are assumed to remain at that level over the remainder of the
forecast period. The number of FAA towers is assumed to remain at 266
throughout the forecast period.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION: RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Although growth in demand for commercial aviation services is based upon
continued growth in the U. S. economy, lower industry operating costs,
lower fares, lower fuel costs, and financial stability, there is
uncertainty associated with these forecasts. A number of events could
alter the short- and long-term environment, and cause demand to differ
substantially from the projections presented in this report. Also,
structural changes in the industry could change the mix of operations at
FAA facilities.

The events of September 11^th^ have had a significant impact on the
demand for aviation services. A modest rebound from the lows in 2002 is
forecast beginning in 2003 and then a return to long term trends is
assumed beginning in 2005. Increased demand is initially met by
utilizing the existing fleet more intensively and by achieving higher
load factors. Ultimately the increase in demand leads to increases in
aviation activity.

The introduction of state-of-the-art jet aircraft into the
regional/commuter fleet coupled with the financial aftermath of
September 11^th^ is significantly altering the route system of the
industry. These new aircraft are greatly expanding the number of markets
that regional/commuters can serve. Should the number of route transfers
or new markets greatly exceed current expectations, commuter/air tax
operations at FAA facilities could be higher than currently forecast.
Conversely, air carrier operations would be lower.

Further, with the financial condition of the U.S. airline industry in
such poor shape, it is conceivable that one or more of the existing
carriers will not survive. If the structure of the industry were to
change as a result of a failure of a major carrier, it is likely that
operations at some FAA facilities would be greatly impacted.

**WORKLOAD**

**FORECASTS**

METHODOLOGY

The workload measures for airports with air traffic control towers are
the number aircraft operations (sum of landings and takeoffs) and
instrument operations. The workload measure for ARTCCs is the number of
aircraft handled (sum of departures, landings, and overflights for
aircraft operating under instrument flight rules). For flight service
stations, the workload measures are flight plans filed, pilot briefings,
and aircraft contacts. The workload measures are developed by user
category for all three components of the air traffic control system.

Projections of total operations for commercial air carriers and
commuter/air taxis at airports with air traffic control towers are based
upon forecasts of Available Seat Miles (ASMs), and assumptions regarding
average seats per aircraft, and aircraft stage length. Specifically, if
the average number of seats per aircraft is divided into the forecast of
ASMs, an estimate of the number of aircraft miles in the system is
derived. The average aircraft stage length is then divided into the
forecast of aircraft miles in order to derive an estimate for
departures. For both air carriers and cargo operators, estimates are
made for both international and domestic departures. An estimate of
total operations for the air carrier and commuter/air taxis is derived
by doubling the number of departures. Forecasts of general aviation
airport operations are developed from projections of general aviation
hours flown and the general aviation fleet.

Forecasts of instrument operations for airports with air traffic control
towers, and the workload measures for ARTCCs and flight service stations
are derived from the forecasts of airport operations by user category.
Military operations were assumed to remain at current levels throughout
the forecast period.

TOWER ACTIVITY

It is assumed that the number of FAA control towers will remain constant
at 266 throughout the forecast period. The number of contract towers is
expected to increase by seven to 224 in 2003 and remain at that level
for the duration of the forecast. It is assumed that the seven new
towers will be phased in throughout 2003. As such, the addition of the
new towers will impact contract tower operations in both 2003 and 2004.

![](media/image11.wmf){width="6.997916666666667in" height="9.21875in"}

Combined FAA and Contract Towers

During the 12-year forecast period, operations at FAA and contract
towered airports grow to 79.1 million by 2014, increasing 1.7 percent
annually on average. Growth in tower activity in 2003 is projected to be
flat with a decline in air carrier operations (down 2.0 percent) offset
by a modest increase in the commuter/air taxi activity (up 2.5 percent).
As the demand for aviation services recovers slowly, so does the level
of activity. For the balance of the forecast from 2004 to 2014, tower
activity is projected to increase an average of 1.7 percent per year.
Commercial activity is forecast to grow at relatively faster rates than
general aviation. Air carrier operations share of the combined towered
airport activity increases slightly from 20.4 percent in 2002 to
21.7 percent in 2014. The commuter/air taxi share increases
significantly from 17.0 percent in 2002 to 19.3 percent by 2014. The
general aviation share of activity declines from 57.9 percent in 2002 to
55.1 percent by 2014. Commuter/air taxi activity is projected to grow at
rates faster than that forecast for the larger commercial air carriers
with accelerating route transfers and increased use of regional jets the
primary drivers.

In 2002, air carrier operations declined from 14.8 to 13.2 million
operations, a 10.5 percent decrease. Although the demand for commercial
air travel begins to recover in 2003, air carrier operations decrease
2.0 percent and then grow at a modest rate (2.5 percent annually) for
the remainder of the forecast period. However, air carrier operations do
not return to the 2000 level of activity until 2010. For the entire
12-year forecast period, air carrier operations increase at a rate of
2.2 percent annually.

Commuter/air taxi activity grows an average of 4.0 percent per year
between 2003 and 2005, then increases at a 2.4 percent annual rate over
the remainder of the forecast. Over the 12-year forecast period,
commuter/air taxi operations grow an average of 2.8 percent annually,
increasing from 11.0 to 15.3 million operations. General aviation
remains flat in 2003, then increases 2.1 percent in 2004, primarily due
to a full year of operations at the new contract towers. For the
remainder of the forecast, general aviation operations increase at a
rate of 1.3 percent per year. For the entire forecast period, general
aviation operations increase from 37.6 to 43.6 million operations
(1.3 percent annual growth). Itinerant general aviation operations are
forecast to increase 16.5 percent over the period, and local general
aviation operations are projected to increase 15.6 percent over the
period. Total military operations are projected to increase to
3.1 million by 2004 then remain at that level throughout the balance of
the forecast period.

Commercial aircraft activity at combined towered airports remains flat
in 2003, as the decline in air carrier activity is offset by an increase
in commuter/air taxi activity. By 2005, commercial aircraft activity
returns to the level of activity in 2000, the worst year on record for
delays. Should activity increases occur without an increase in system
capacity, significant congestion problems may result.

However, the mix of traffic will be significantly different than existed
in 2000. In 2000, air carrier operations accounted for 58.5 percent of
total commercial operations. By 2005, it is expected that the air
carrier share of commercial operations will decline to 52.9 percent. The
surge in regional jet activity adds to the complexity of the FAA
workload. Regional jets need more separation then do the large jets
operated by the air carriers, and the regional jets fly at the same
altitudes as do larger jets, increasing congestion at the higher
altitudes. In certain large hubs, such as Chicago O'Hare, the change in
the mix of commercial operations is expected to be even greater. For the
period 2005 to 2014, commercial activity increases at an average rate of
2.5 percent per year.

Commercial activity growth averages 2.5 percent annually during the
12‑year forecast period, increasing from 24.2 to 32.4 million.
Noncommercial activity increases at an average of 1.2 percent annually,
from 40.6 million in 2002 to 46.7 million in 2014.

Forecasts for individual airports are contained in the FAA's Terminal
Area Forecast and are available at the following website:
http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/.

FAA Towers

In 2002, operations at the 266 FAA towered airports totaled 48.5
million, down 4.1 percent from 2001. For the 12-year forecast period,
operations at FAA towered airports increase 1.7 percent a year. In
absolute numbers, towered operations total 59.4 million in 2014.

Commercial aircraft activity at FAA towered airports is projected to
grow 2.4 percent annually during the 12-year forecast period, from 22.5
to 30.0 million, exceeding the level of activity that occurred in 2000
by 2006. Noncommercial activity increases from its current level of
26.1 million to 29.4 million in 2014 (1.0 percent annually), and does
not exceed the 2000 level of activity until 2013.

Contract Towers

In 2002, operations at the 217 contract towered airports totaled 16.3
million, a 4.9 percent increase from 2001. The forecast assumes that
seven new contract towers are added in 2003. The vast majority of the
increased activity at these towers is general aviation and military
activity. During the 12-year forecast period, operations at contract
towered airports increase at an annual rate of 1.6 percent, totaling
19.7 million in 2014. The additional activity of the new towers provides
for modest growth in contract tower operations in 2003 (1.9 percent)
followed by a year of higher growth (3.6 percent). Thereafter growth in
contract tower activity will moderate.

Commercial aircraft activity at contract towered airports grows an
average of 2.7 percent annually during the 12-year forecast period,
increasing from 1.8 million to 2.4 million. Noncommercial activity grows
slower, averaging 1.4 percent annually, increasing from 14.6 million in
2002 to 17.3 million in 2014.

INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

Combined FAA

and Contract Towers

During the fore­cast period, combined instrument operations increase from
49.6 million operations in 2002 to 61.9 million operations in 2014,
averaging 1.9 percent annually. In 2014, FAA towers will account for
about 98.3 percent of combined instrument operations.

The mix of instrument operations is expected to change during the
forecast period. While the air carrier share of total instrument
operations increases about 1 point over the forecast period (from 29.0
to 30.1 percent), the commuter/air taxi share increases significantly
from 24.1 percent in 2002 to 26.7 percent. General aviation's share
declines from 39.7 percent to 37.3 percent over the 12-year forecast
period.

Air carrier instrument operations are forecast to decrease 2.0 percent
in 2003, then increase 3.3 percent in 2004 and grow 2.5 percent annually
thereafter. During the entire 12-year forecast period, air carrier
instrument operations increase 2.2 percent annually from 14.4 million

![](media/image12.wmf){width="7.002083333333333in"
height="9.246527777777779in"}

to 18.7 million by 2014. Commuter/air taxi operations increase 3.5
percent per year through 2005, then grow 2.4 percent per year
thereafter. For the 12-year forecast period, commuter/air taxi
operations grow 2.8 percent annually, increasing from 11.9 million to
16.6 million.

General aviation operations fall 1.1 percent in 2003 then increase
steadily thereafter and grow an average of 1.4 percent annually during
the forecast period, increasing from 19.6 million to 23.1 million
operations. Military activity increased 1.8 percent in 2002 to
3.6 million, and remains at that level for the balance of the forecast.

During the 12-year forecast period, commercial activity increases 2.5
percent annually, from 26.3 million to 35.2 million. Noncommercial
activity is forecast to increase 1.2 percent annually, from 23.2 million
in 2002 to 26.7 million in 2014.

FAA Towers

Instrument operations at FAA towered airports are projected to decrease
0.4 percent in 2003 as declines in air carrier and general aviation
operations offset an increase in commuter/air taxi operations. For the
12-year forecast period, instrument operations at FAA towered airports
increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. In absolute numbers,
FAA towered instrument operations reach 60.9 million in 2014.

Commercial instrument operations at FAA towered airports remain
unchanged in 2003 then increase 3.6 percent in 2004 mirroring the
rebound in demand for commercial air transport.

During the period 2005 to 2014, commercial instrument operations at FAA
towered airports grow 2.5 percent annually. For the entire 12-year
forecast period, commercial instrument operations increase from 26.1
million to 34.6 million, a rate of 2.5 percent annually. Noncommercial
activity expands 1.2 percent annually, from 22.9 million in 2002 to
26.3 million in 2014.

Contract Towers

For the 12-year forecast period, instrument operations at contract
towered airports increase 2.0 percent a year, totaling 1.03 million in
2014.

Commercial instrument operations at contract towered airports grow at an
average annual rate of 2.6 percent during the 12‑year forecast period,
increasing from 477,500 to 651,100. Noncommercial activity is forecast
to increase from 336,400 in 2002 to 380,300 in 2014, growing at an
average annual rate of 1.0 percent.

CENTER ACTIVITY

During the 12‑year forecast period, the number of aircraft handled at
centers increases 2.0 percent annually, expanding from 43.7 million
aircraft handled in 2002 to 55.6 million in 2014. Aircraft handled fall
0.3 percent in 2003 as increases in commuter/air taxi and general
aviation aircraft are offset by a decline in air carrier activity.
Following a 2.9 percent increase in 2004, growth in aircraft handled
averages 2.1 percent during the period 2005 to 2014.

The number of air carrier aircraft handled at centers is forecast to
increase from 22.8 million in 2002 to 29.6 million in 2014, a
2.2 percent annual growth rate. Air carrier aircraft handled fall 2.1
percent in 2003, increase 3.3 percent in 2004, and then grow at an
average rate of 2.5 percent per year between 2005 and 2014.

![](media/image13.wmf){width="7.002083333333333in"
height="9.247222222222222in"}

Commuter/air taxi aircraft handled is expected to increase by 3.7
percent per year through 2005 and grow 2.8 percent annually for the
12-year forecast period, increasing from 8.8 million to 12.3 million.
The relatively strong growth during the first 3 years of the forecast
period reflects increases in the commuter stage length during this
period.

General aviation aircraft handled increases 1.0 percent in 2003 and
continues to increase steadily to total 9.8 million in 2014 (1.6 percent
annual growth). Military activity decreased 2.9 percent in 2002 to
3.9 million and remains at that level throughout the forecast period.

Commercial activity grows at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent
during the forecast period, increasing from 31.6 million to
41.9 million. Noncommercial activity increases 1.1 percent annually,
increasing from 12.1 million in 2002 to 13.8 million in 2014.

The commercial aircraft activities\' share of center workload is
forecast to increase from 72.3 percent in 2002 to 75.3 percent in 2014.
Between 2002 and the year 2014, the air carrier share is forecast to
increase from 52.2 to 53.2 percent, while the commuter/air taxi share
increases from 20.1 to 22.1 percent.

FLIGHT SERVICE STATION

ACTIVITY

The introduction of new technology for flight service applications has
significantly changed the operating environment of the flight service
system. Viewed in the larger context of the total National Airspace
System, the recent declining trend in non-automated flight services do
not necessarily indicate declining demand for total flight planning
services. Rather, they may indicate that demand is being met through
increased use of automation and new system capabilities resulting in
increased efficiency and productivity.

Non-automated Service

Total traditional (non-automated) flight services originating at FAA
flight service stations are projected to post an across the board
increase in 2003. This based on FSS activity measure trends for the
first quarter of 2003. In absolute numbers, the number of total flight
services is expected to decrease slightly to 28.9 million in 2003. For
the balance of the forecast period FSS activity is expected to continue
to decline slightly. By the end of the forecast period, total flight
services provided by the FAA flight service stations are projected to
total 28.6 million.

The number of pilot briefings is projected to decrease 1.8 percent to
7.32 million in 2003, and continue declining slowly throughout the
remainder of the forecast period. Over all, pilot briefs are projected
to decline from 7.46 million in 2002 to 7.16 million in 2014, an average
annual rate of decline of 0.3 percent.

FSS flight plans originated at flight service stations are projected to
decrease 2.4 percent in 2003 continuing the trend that began in the
middle of FY 2002. After declining slightly for the next two years,
total flight plans originated are forecast to grow 0.4 percent per year
for the duration of the forecast. By the year 2014, total flight plans
originated are projected to total 5.8 million, unchanged from the level
in 2002.

The number of aircraft contacted is forecast to decline from 3.0 million
in 2002 to 2.7 million in 2014, a 0.8 percent average annual decline.

# 

![](media/image14.wmf){width="6.995138888888889in"
height="8.602083333333333in"}

#### Automated Service

Several factors resulting from automation will tend to dampen the growth
in traditional FSS workload measures, as currently defined. First,
pilots can now obtain weather briefings through the Telephone
Information Briefing System (TIBS), which does not require contact with
a flight service specialist, and is not, therefore, included in the FSS
pilot briefings count.

Second, private weather briefing vendors, participating in memorandums
of agreement with the FAA, can also provide weather briefings and file
flight plans for their customers without going through an FSS. Third,
starting February 1990, DUATS became operational. Using DUATS, pilots
with access to a computer, modem, and telephone can directly access a
national weather data base for weather briefings and flight plan filing
without ever going through an FSS.

This automated access may be through the pilot\'s own computer or
through those of fixed-based operators offering the service to their
customers. None of the flight planning services provided through the
above sources are included in the FSS workload measures.

During 2002 there were a total of 7.1 million DUATS transactions. If
each transaction involves a weather briefing, this represents
7.1 million pilot briefs. In addition, approximately 1.2 million flight
plans were filed through the DUATS system. Using the weighted total
flight services formula (two times the sum of pilot briefs and flight
plans filed), this translates into approximately 16.5 million total
flight services that are not included in the FAA flight service station
workload measure.

DUATS transactions are projected to increase from 7.1 million in 2002 to
7.4 million in 2003 (up 4.0 percent). During the period 2002 through
2014, DUATS transactions are forecast to increase at an average annual
rate of 1.9 percent, reaching 8.8 million in 2014.

For the entire forecast period, flight plans filed through DUATS are
expected to increase from approximately 1.2 million to 1.7 million in
2014, a 3.3 percent average annual increase. By the year 2014, total
services provided through DUATS are projected to account for
21.1 million flight services, or 41.7 percent of total system services.

Total Flight Services

The decline in activity at FAA flight service stations since the mid
1980s is the result of the process of FSS consolidation, and the growing
acceptance and utilization of DUATS services.

Total flight services, including non-automated and automated services,
are expected to increase 1.8 percent in 2003 to 46.7 million. By 2014
total flight services are forecast to reach 50.5 million, an average
annual increase of 0.8 percent over the 12-year forecast period.

[^1]: All specified years are fiscal years (October through September
    30), unless designated otherwise.