Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane John

(EP112006)

28 August-4 September 2006

Richard J. Pasch

National Hurricane Center

16 November 2006

Hurricane John struck southern Baja California as a category 2 hurricane
(on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and was responsible for five
deaths.

a.  Synoptic History

A tropical wave that departed western Africa on 17 August and entered
the eastern North Pacific Ocean late on 24 August appears to be
responsible for the formation of John. The cloud pattern associated with
this system, which was not impressive during its trek across the
Atlantic basin, almost immediately showed signs of organization when the
wave crossed into the Pacific. The first Dvorak satellite classification
was done at 2345 UTC 24 August, when the system was located just to the
west of Costa Rica. Tropical cyclone formation is rather infrequent so
far east in the eastern Pacific basin, and there was little or no
additional development while the system moved west-northwestward to the
south of Central America over the next few days. On 27 August, curved
bands of deep convection became better defined over the area to the
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and by 0000 UTC 28 August
the system became sufficiently well-organized to warrant its designation
as a tropical depression, while centered about 235 n mi south of Salina
Cruz, Mexico. A continued increase in organization occurred, and the
cyclone became a tropical storm by 1200 UTC 28 August.

The "best track" map of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Fig. 1,
with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
Table 1. A rather weak mid-level ridge was situated over Mexico, and the
flow to the south of this ridge moved John northwestward to
west-northwestward at 6-10 kt for several days. On this track, the
center of the cyclone moved roughly parallel to, but not far offshore of
the coast of mainland Mexico. Meanwhile, an environment of low vertical
shear and a very warm ocean promoted significant intensification. John
became a hurricane by 1200 UTC 29 August, and strengthened into a major
hurricane just 12 h later. The storm's peak intensity of 115 kt
(category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) was reached around
1800 UTC 30 August. Weakening to below major hurricane status took place
over the next day or so, probably in association with at least one
eyewall replacement. During this time, John's eye came within about 50 n
mi of the coastline between Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas early on 31
August. On 1 September, the hurricane re-intensified to category 3
status while headed in the general direction of Baja California. Late on
1 September, the tropical cyclone turned toward the north-northwest as
the mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane weakened slightly. The
10-12 n mi diameter eye of John made landfall in extreme southern Baja
California at Cabo del Este, about 40 n mi northeast of Cabo San Lucas,
around 0200 UTC 2 September. Although there had been some slight
weakening, the hurricane's maximum winds were estimated to be near 95 kt
at landfall. John moved northwestward near or just inland of the eastern
coastline of the Baja peninsula, with the center of the weakening
hurricane passing near La Paz shortly before 1200 UTC 2 September. John
then moved up the hilly Baja California peninsula while continuing to
decrease in intensity; it became a tropical storm by 1800 UTC 2
September, and eventually weakened to a tropical depression by 0000 UTC
4 September. The cyclone dissipated near the east coast of the
north-central Baja California peninsula shortly after 1200 UTC 4
September.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in John (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and
    the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level
    and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve (AFRES)
    Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting
    satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the
    NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
    satellites were also useful in tracking John. The 115-kt estimated
    maximum intensity of this hurricane is based on a 700 mb
    flight-level wind of 126 kt from AFRES at 1256 UTC 30 August, a
    lowest 150-m average wind speed of 131 kt from a dropsonde at about
    the same time, and Dvorak intensity estimates of 115 kt from both
    TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC 30 August. The lowest aircraft-measured
    central pressure was 950 mb at 1254 UTC 30 August. Since the central
    pressure was falling prior to the time of this observation, and the
    plane departed the storm shortly thereafter, it is presumed that the
    pressure was a little lower, 948 mb, at 1800 UTC that day -- which
    is the lowest central pressure for the life of the hurricane. No
    hurricane-force wind speed measurements from ground-based stations
    were received. However, the 95-kt estimate of John's strength at
    landfall in southern Baja California is consistent with AFRES
    flight-level winds of 102 kt about 8 h before landfall and images
    from the Los Cabos radar that showed the eyewall structure being
    maintained, or becoming even a little better defined, up until the
    time that the center crossed the coast (Fig. 4).

    A ship report of winds of tropical storm force associated with John
    is given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land
    stations are given in Table 3. The strongest winds observed over
    land were from the La Paz Observatory, where maximum sustained winds
    of 45 kt with a gust to 57 kt were reported. A rainfall total of
    12.5 inches was measured at Los Planes, with almost 11 inches of
    this falling in a 24-h period.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    According to press reports, John caused five deaths, all in Baja
    California. Two-hundred homes were said to have been destroyed in
    the vicinity of La Paz. Over 250 homes were damaged or destroyed in
    the city of Mulege, located on the eastern coast of south-central
    Baja California. Heavy rains resulted in the overflow of the Iguagil
    dam in Comundu, which isolated 15 towns due to 4-foot floodwaters.
    Winds and rains destroyed crops in large areas and killed many
    livestock in southern Baja California. Although the eye of the
    hurricane remained offshore of mainland Mexico, John's circulation
    affected the coast with very heavy rains and strong winds. A 10-foot
    storm surge was reported in Acapulco, causing flooding of coastal
    roads in that area; however this flooding may have been due to the
    combined effects of waves and tides. Heavy rains produced mud slides
    in the Costa Chica region of Guerrero, which left around 70
    communities isolated. Moisture and locally heavy rains also spread
    over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United
    States. Twenty neighborhoods were flooded by rainfall from the
    remnants of John in Ciudad Juarez, located across the border from El
    Paso, Texas. Over 3 inches of rain fell in El Paso, causing some
    flooding and closure of roads in that area.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    John's development was well-anticipated in the National Hurricane
    Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOs). Disturbed weather
    associated with the tropical wave that spawned John had been
    mentioned in the TWO as early as 1700 UTC 25 August, when the system
    was near Central America. The first TWO to acknowledge that the
    pre-John disturbance could become a tropical cyclone was issued at
    2300 UTC 26 August, or 25 h prior to genesis.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts for
    John is given in Table 4. Average official track errors were 24, 37,
    51, 71, 145, 242, and 334 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and
    120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged from
    28 at 12 h to 10 at 120 h. These errors are lower than or comparable
    to the average long-term official track errors (Table 4) for 12
    through 72 h and greater than the average for 96 and 120 h. Both
    GUNA and FSSE had lower average errors than the official forecast
    for 48 through 120 h. It should be noted that the GFDI model had
    remarkably low mean track errors beyond 72 h, and was as good or
    better than the consensus guidance at these forecast times. There
    was a substantial left bias in the official track forecasts,
    especially at days 4 and 5, as depicted in Fig. 5. In general, the
    longer-term official forecasts incorrectly called for the hurricane
    to pass to the south and southwest of Baja California. Shorter-term
    forecasts issued within about 60 h of landfall did indicate that the
    center would pass near or over southern Baja California. However
    nearly all of these forecasts called for the center to pass close to
    Cabo San Lucas, rather than over the sparsely-settled area to the
    northeast \-- where landfall actually occurred.

    A verification of official and guidance model intensity forecasts
    for John is given in Table 5. Average official intensity errors were
    10, 15, 19, 21, 27, 33, and 33 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. These mean errors are
    substantially higher than the average long-term official intensity
    errors of 6, 11, 14, 17, 19, 18, and 19 kt, respectively. The mean
    official intensity forecast errors for John were also larger than
    the climatology and persistence model SHIFOR at all forecast times,
    indicating no skill. The first few official intensity forecasts did
    not anticipate that the cyclone would strengthen as rapidly as it
    did. Since many official forecasts kept John offshore of Baja
    California, however, there was a high bias in the *mean* official
    wind speed forecasts, particularly at days 4 and 5.

    Watches and warnings that were issued for John are listed in
    Table 6. A hurricane warning was issued for southern Baja California
    at 0300 UTC 31 August, 47 h prior to landfall.

e\. Acknowledgements

Michael Rosengaus and Alberto Hernandez Unzon of the Meteorogical
Service of Mexico provided meteorological observations and other
information concerning John.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane John, 28 August-4
September 2006.

+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| Da      | L       | Lo      | P       | Wind    | Stage           |
| te/Time | atitude | ngitude | ressure | Speed   |                 |
|         |         |         |         |         |                 |
| (UTC)   | (°N)    | (°W)    | (mb)    | (kt)    |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 12.3    | 94.6    | 1005    | 25      | tropical        |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 12.7    | 95.0    | 1005    | 30      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 13.1    | 95.6    | 1004    | 35      | tropical storm  |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 13.5    | 96.3    | 1002    | 40      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 13.7    | 96.9    | 997     | 50      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 13.8    | 97.5    | 990     | 60      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 14.0    | 98.3    | 980     | 75      | hurricane       |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 14.2    | 99.2    | 965     | 95      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 14.9    | 100.0   | 962     | 100     | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 15.3    | 100.8   | 960     | 105     | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 16.0    | 101.7   | 950     | 115     | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 16.9    | 102.7   | 948     | 115     | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 17.6    | 104.0   | 950     | 110     | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 18.2    | 104.9   | 950     | 110     | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 19.0    | 105.8   | 960     | 100     | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 20.2    | 106.7   | 968     | 90      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 01 /    | 21.0    | 107.6   | 968     | 90      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 01 /    | 21.4    | 108.4   | 955     | 100     | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 01 /    | 21.7    | 108.7   | 955     | 100     | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 01 /    | 22.4    | 108.9   | 958     | 95      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 02 /    | 23.2    | 109.2   | 958     | 95      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 02 /    | 23.8    | 109.9   | 962     | 85      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 02 /    | 24.2    | 110.5   | 975     | 70      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 02 /    | 24.8    | 111.0   | 985     | 60      | tropical storm  |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 03 /    | 25.4    | 111.4   | 988     | 50      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 03 /    | 26.0    | 111.8   | 990     | 45      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 03 /    | 26.7    | 112.3   | 992     | 40      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 03 /    | 27.4    | 112.5   | 996     | 35      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 04 /    | 27.9    | 112.9   | 1002    | 30      | tropical        |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 04 /    | 28.4    | 113.1   | 1004    | 25      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 04 /    | 28.9    | 113.2   | 1004    | 25      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 04 /    |         |         |         |         | dissipated      |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 16.9    | 102.7   | 948     | 115     | minimum         |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         | pressure        |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 02 /    | 23.3    | 109.4   | 958     | 95      | landfall over   |
| 0200    |         |         |         |         | Cabo del Este,  |
|         |         |         |         |         | Baja California |
|         |         |         |         |         | Sur             |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Ship report of winds of at least 34 kt for
Hurricane John, 28 August-4 September 2006.

+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Date/Time | Ship call | Latitude  | Longitude | Wind      | Pressure  |
| (UTC)     | sign      |           |           |           |           |
|           |           | (°N)      | (°W)      | dir/speed | (mb)      |
|           |           |           |           | (kt)      |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 03 / 0700 | D5XH      | 26.5      | 111.2     | 120 / 37  | 996.0     |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Selected surface observations for Hurricane
John, 28 August-4 September 2006.

+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Location          | M   |    | M   |       |    | S  | St  | To  |
|                   | ini |    | axi |       |    | to | orm | tal |
|                   | mum |    | mum |       |    | rm |     |     |
|                   | Sea |    | S   |       |    | s  | t   | r   |
|                   | Le  |    | urf |       |    | ur | ide | ain |
|                   | vel |    | ace |       |    | ge |     |     |
|                   | Pr  |    |     |       |    |    | (   | (   |
|                   | ess |    | W   |       |    | (f | ft) | in) |
|                   | ure |    | ind |       |    | t) |     |     |
|                   |     |    | Sp  |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   |     |    | eed |       |    |    |     |     |
+===================+=====+====+=====+=======+====+====+=====+=====+
|                   | Da  | Pr | Da  | Sust  | Gu |    |     |     |
|                   | te/ | es | te/ | ained | st |    |     |     |
|                   |     | s. |     |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | t   |    | t   | (kt)  | (k |    |     |     |
|                   | ime | (m | ime |       | t) |    |     |     |
|                   |     | b) |     |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | (U  |    | (U  |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | TC) |    | TC) |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   |     |    | ^a^ |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| **Mexico**        |     |    |     |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Ciudad            | 2 / | 9  | 2 / | 23    | 34 |    |     |     |
| Constitución      | 2   | 90 | 1   |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | 200 | .4 | 550 |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Ciudad            |     | 9  |     | 12    | 34 |    |     |     |
| Constitución      |     | 97 |     |       |    |    |     |     |
| (EMA)             |     | .8 |     |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| La Paz            | 2/  | 9  | 2   | 45    | 57 |    |     |     |
|                   | 0   | 86 | /1  |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | 930 | .8 | 000 |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Loreto            |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | 3   |
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | .73 |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Puerto Cortés     | 2 / | 9  | 2 / | 31    | 42 |    |     |     |
|                   | 2   | 99 | 1   |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   | 100 | .7 | 530 |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| San Jose del Cabo |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | 5   |
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | .63 |
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | ^b^ |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| San Jose De Los   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | 12  |
| Planes            |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | .50 |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Santa Rosalía     | 3 / | 9  | 3 / | 34    | 45 |    |     | 5   |
|                   | 1   | 95 | 1   |       |    |    |     | .77 |
|                   | 200 | .3 | 200 |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Santiago          |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | 6   |
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     | .32 |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
| Topolobampo       |     |    | 2 / |       | 36 |    |     |     |
|                   |     |    | 1   |       |    |    |     |     |
|                   |     |    | 130 |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+
|                   |     |    |     |       |    |    |     |     |
+-------------------+-----+----+-----+-------+----+----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Twenty-four hour total.

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Preliminary track forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane John, 28 August-4 September 2006.
Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in
parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in
bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 31    | 54    | 86    | 116   | 197   | 285   | 353   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 38    | 69    | 107   | 158   | 231   | 323   | 537 ( |
|           | (24)  | (22)  | (20)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  | 6)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 39    | 68    | 89    | 111   | 158   | **    | **    |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | 166** | 157** |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (14)  | ( 9)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 42    | 70    | 98    | 121   | 213   | 339   | 432   |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 43    | 76    | 115   | 145   | 219   | 318   | 375   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 40    | 70    | 92    | 118   | 241   | 384   | 509 ( |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (17)  | (13)  | 8)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 50    | 88    | 122   | 137   | 235   | 346 ( | 458 ( |
|           | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | 8)    | 2)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 26    | 37    | 53    | 80    | 146   | 255   | 374   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 28    | 46    | 70    | 101   | 205   | 365   | 520   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 32    | 56    | 82    | 110   | 198   | 323   | 468   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | 30    | 46    | 61    | 77    | **    | **    | **    |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | 139** | 230** | 332** |
|           |       |       |       |       | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 27    | 42    | 57    | *     | **    | **    | **    |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | *68** | 128** | 209** | 315** |
|           |       |       |       | (17)  | (13)  | ( 7)  | ( 2)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 25    | 41    | 54    | *     | *     | **    | **    |
|           | (25)  | (24)  | (22)  | *61** | *90** | 166** | 281** |
|           |       |       |       | (20)  | (16)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 24    | 37    | 51    | 71    | 145   | 242   | 334   |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 60    | 83    | 103   | 145   | 192   | 231   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (877) | (652) | (465) | (313) |
|           | 1300) | 1152) | 1009) |       |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2001-2005 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 5. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane John, 28 August-4 September 2006. Forecast errors
(kt) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors
smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
Verification includes the depression stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHF5      | **    | **1   | **1   | **1   | **1   | **2   | **2   |
|           | 9.2** | 4.6** | 8.8** | 7.9** | 9.4** | 6.1** | 3.2** |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 13.0  | 22.2  | 30.5  | 34.4  | 27.1  | **2   | **1   |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | 1.4** | 6.9** |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (14)  | ( 9)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP      | 12.4  | 21.4  | 29.6  | 33.5  | 31.7  | **3   | 33.1  |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | 2.7** | (11)  |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (15)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 10.7  | 17.0  | 24.6  | 28.0  | 30.7  | **3   | 33.1  |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | 2.0** | (11)  |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (15)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | **    | 14.8  | **1   | **1   | **1   | **1   | **1   |
|           | 9.4** | (24)  | 4.2** | 3.2** | 2.8** | 6.1** | 9.5** |
|           | (25)  |       | (22)  | (20)  | (16)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | 10.1  | **1   | **1   | **2   | **1   | **1   | **1   |
|           | (27)  | 4.5** | 9.3** | 1.3** | 9.5** | 5.9** | 6.0** |
|           |       | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (17)  | (13)  | ( 8)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 9.5   | 14.8  | 19.4  | 21.4  | 26.9  | 33.2  | 32.5  |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.2   | 10.8  | 14.3  | 16.5  | 18.7  | 18.3  | 19.3  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (876) | (652) | (465) | (313) |
|           | 1300) | 1152) | 1009) |       |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2001-2005 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 6. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
John, 28 August-4 September 2006.

  ----------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                               Location
  (UTC)                                            

  29 / 0300   Tropical Storm Watch issued          Lagunas De Chacahua to
                                                   Lazaro Cardenas

  29 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch modified to     Lagunas De Chacahua to
                                                   Acapulco

  29 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning issued        Lazaro Cardenas to
                                                   Acapulco

  29 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch discontinued    Lagunas De Chacahua to
                                                   Acapulco

  29 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch modified to     Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo
                                                   Corrientes

  29 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Lazaro Cardenas to
                                                   Lagunas De Chacahua

  30 / 0300   Tropical Storm Watch discontinued    All

  30 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Lazaro Cardenas to Punto
                                                   Maldonado

  30 / 0300   Hurricane Watch issued               Tecpan De Galeana to
                                                   Lazaro Cardenas

  30 / 0300   Hurricane Watch issued               La Fortuna to Cabo
                                                   Corrientes

  30 / 0300   Hurricane Warning issued             Lazaro Cardenas to La
                                                   Fortuna

  30 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued          Cabo Corrientes to El
                                                   Roblito

  30 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Lazaro Cardenas to
                                                   Acapulco

  30 / 1500   Hurricane Watch discontinued         La Fortuna to Cabo
                                                   Corrientes

  30 / 1500   Hurricane Watch issued               Islas Marias

  30 / 1500   Hurricane Warning modified to        Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo
                                                   Corrientes

  30 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch modified to     Cabo Corrientes to
                                                   Mazatlan

  30 / 2100   Hurricane Watch issued               La Paz to Santa Fe

  31 / 0300   Hurricane Watch changed to Hurricane La Paz to Santa Fe
              Warning                              

  31 / 0300   Hurricane Watch changed to Hurricane Islas Marias
              Warning                              

  31 / 0300   Tropical Storm Watch discontinued    All

  31 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  Lazaro Cardenas to
                                                   Acapulco

  31 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning issued        San Blas to Mazatlan

  31 / 0300   Hurricane Watch discontinued         All

  31 / 0300   Hurricane Warning modified to        Lazaro Cardenas to San
                                                   Blas

  31 / 1500   Hurricane Warning modified to        Manzanillo to San Blas

  31 / 2100   Hurricane Warning modified to        Cabo Corrientes to San
                                                   Blas

  31 / 2100   Hurricane Warning discontinued       La Paz to Santa Fe

  31 / 2100   Hurricane Warning issued             San Everisto to Bahia
                                                   Magdalena

  1 / 0300    Tropical Storm Warning issued        Punta Abreojos to Bahia
                                                   Magdalena

  1 / 0300    Tropical Storm Warning issued        San Evaristo to Loreto

  1 / 0600    Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  San Blas to Mazatlan

  1 / 0900    Tropical Storm Watch issued          Loreto to Mulege

  1 / 0900    Hurricane Watch issued               Bahia Magdalena to Punta
                                                   Abreojos

  1 / 0900    Hurricane Warning discontinued       Cabo Corrientes to San
                                                   Blas

  1 / 1500    Hurricane Warning discontinued       Islas Marias

  2 / 0000    Hurricane Watch changed to Tropical  Punta Abreojos to Bahia
              Storm Warning                        Magdalena

  2 / 0300    Tropical Storm Watch modified to     Bahia San Juan Bautista
                                                   to Mulege

  2 / 0300    Tropical Storm Watch issued          Punta Eugenia to Punta
                                                   Abreojos

  2 / 0300    Tropical Storm Watch issued          Altata to Guaymas

  2 / 0300    Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  All

  2 / 0300    Hurricane Warning discontinued       San Everisto to Bahia
                                                   Magdalena

  2 / 0300    Hurricane Warning issued             Mulege to Punta Abreojos

  2 / 0900    Tropical Storm Watch changed to      Bahia San Juan Bautista
              Tropical Storm Warning               to Mulege

  2 / 2100    Tropical Storm Watch discontinued    All

  2 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Bahia San Juan Bautista
                                                   to San Evaristo

  2 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning issued        Punta Eugenia to Santa
                                                   Fe

  2 / 2100    Hurricane Warning discontinued       All

  3 / 0900    Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Punta Eugenia to Bahia
                                                   Magdalena

  3 / 1500    Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  Bahia San Juan Bautista
                                                   to San Evaristo

  3 / 1500    Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Punta Eugenia to Punta
                                                   Abreojos

  3 / 1500    Tropical Storm Warning issued        Bahia De Los Angeles to
                                                   Loreto

  3 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning modified to   Bahia De Los Angeles to
                                                   Mulege

  3 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  Punta Eugenia to Punta
                                                   Abreojos

  3 / 0000    Tropical Storm Warning discontinued  All
  ----------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.648611111111111in"
height="6.004166666666666in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane John,
28 August-4 September 2006.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.055555555555555in"
height="4.819444444444445in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane John, 28
August-4 September 2006. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for
elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations
from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde
observations include actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface
estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind
sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL).
Objective Dvorak estimate represents a linear average over a three-hour
period centered on the nominal observation time.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.055555555555555in"
height="4.819444444444445in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane John, 28 August-4
September 2006. Objective Dvorak estimate represents a linear average
over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time.

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="6.4944444444444445in"
height="7.009027777777778in"}

Figure 4. Image from the Meteorological Service of Mexico's Los Cabos
radar exhibiting the well-defined eyewall of Hurricane John shortly
before landfall in southern Baja California.

![](media/image5.png){width="7.4in" height="5.301388888888889in"}

Figure 5. Official track forecasts (white) and Best Track (black) for
Hurricane John, 28 August-4 September 2006.Number range CHAPTER