Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 1/27/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** JA6005

JA6005

**Japan**

**Poultry and Products**

**Broiler Semiannual**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Clay Hamilton

U. S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Kakuyu Obara

**Report Highlights:** High beginning stocks and stagnant demand are
expected to slow imports and production in 2006 with total imports
projected, down 4% and production down 1%. Imports from Thailand are not
expected to increase despite the implementation of an FTA due to the
relatively small tariff cut scheduled for the initial year. Ongoing
concerns about AI will continue to limit imports from Asia to cooked
product leaving Brazil as the predominant supplier of broiler meat.
Japan had a series of domestic outbreaks and detections of AI bird flu
in 2005 but quick GOJ responses limited the impact on domestic
production and the market.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Semi-Annual Report

Tokyo \[JA1\]

\[JA\]

Table of Contents

[2006 Outlook 3](#outlook)

[Weaker Market Outlook and High Stocks to Lower Imports in 2006
3](#weaker-market-outlook-and-high-stocks-to-lower-imports-in-2006)

[No Immediate Lifting of Broiler Meat Import Ban on China and Thailand
Foreseen in 2006
3](#no-immediate-lifting-of-broiler-meat-import-ban-on-china-and-thailand-foreseen-in-2006)

[Heavy Reliance on Single Supply Source Worries Japanese Meat Trade
3](#heavy-reliance-on-single-supply-source-worries-japanese-meat-trade)

[Japan's Bird Flu Response Measures Effectively Controlling Domestic
Concerns
4](#japans-bird-flu-response-measures-effectively-controlling-domestic-concerns)

[2005 Situation Update and Summary 4](#situation-update-and-summary)

[Imports Rose Substantially, But Consumption Slow Down Caused Surplus
Stock in 2005
4](#imports-rose-substantially-but-consumption-slow-down-caused-surplus-stock-in-2005)

[Table 1. Japanese Monthly Household Consumption of Beef, Pork and
Chicken
5](#table-1.-japanese-monthly-household-consumption-of-beef-pork-and-chicken)

[Table 2. Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Broiler Cuts in
Tokyo
6](#table-2.-monthly-average-wholesale-price-of-domestic-broiler-cuts-in-tokyo)

[Table 3. Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Imported Broiler Cuts in
Kanto Region
6](#table-3.-monthly-average-wholesale-price-of-imported-broiler-cuts-in-kanto-region)

[Table 4. Monthly Ending Poultry Stock Estimates
7](#table-4.-monthly-ending-poultry-stock-estimates)

[Table 5-a. Japanese Imports of Total Broiler Including Prepared
Products 2005
7](#table-5-a.-japanese-imports-of-total-broiler-including-prepared-products-2005)

[Table 5-b. Japanese Imports of Broiler Meat 2005
8](#table-5-b.-japanese-imports-of-broiler-meat-2005)

[Table 5-c. Japanese Imports of Prepared Broiler Products 2005
8](#table-5-c.-japanese-imports-of-prepared-broiler-products-2005)

[Broiler PS&D Table 9](#broiler-psd-table)

# 2006 Outlook

## Weaker Market Outlook and High Stocks to Lower Imports in 2006 

The prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which is
reportedly spreading from Asia to other countries such as Russia and
Turkey, could impact the world broiler trade outlook in 2006. Post notes
the major international efforts kicked off last year are well underway
to tackle the issues from both animal and human health aspects. Many
countries, including U.S., EU, Japan and international bodies such as
WHO and FAO are taking a part to provide financial and technical
assistances to those countries having problems with relatively weak
infrastructures and institutions for disease surveillance, prevention
and control.

In terms of the Japanese market specific, the situation in 2006 is
expected to somewhat stagnant following a weaker than anticipated market
during the second half of last year. Particularly, a weaker outlook for
food service demand, coupled with high year beginning stocks, somewhat
clouds the import outlook this year (See 2005 Situation Update and
Summary).

In light of the above, Japan's total broiler consumption in 2006 is
projected to stay flat from the level achieved last year at 1.88 million
MT. Modestly lower total imports are projected, down 4% to 720,000 MT
(generic broiler meat: down by 9% to 380,000 MT and prepared and
processed products: up by 3% to 340,000 MT). The relatively large
beginning stocks of uncooked broiler meat, estimated to be 40% above
last year's beginning stocks (See Table 4), will affect import demand
for broiler meat in 2006. Furthermore, Japan's shift of import demand
from generic to cooked products may likely continue in 2006.

## No Immediate Lifting of Broiler Meat Import Ban on China and Thailand Foreseen in 2006 

Post does not foresee any tangible impacts of Japan's EPA/FTA with
Thailand on Japan's imports of the cooked products in 2006, which was to
start its implementation this spring (unclear yet as to when to start at
present) due to the relatively small tariff cut scheduled for the
initial year. Furthermore, under the prevailing bird flu situation in
China and Thailand, where sporadic outbreaks are still being reported
with some human infection and deaths, post also does not foresee that
Japan will lift its import ban on generic broiler meat from above two
countries during 2006. This means the current status of broiler meat
from Brazil and the cooked products from China and Thailand will mostly
likely remain unchanged in 2006.

## Heavy Reliance on Single Supply Source Worries Japanese Meat Trade

One concern shared by the Japanese meat trade is Japan's current
reliance on Brazil for the majority of boneless broiler meat (Brazil's
share is 90% of the broiler meat imports) with no other viable suppliers
(See Note 1). Unlike Thailand and China, Brazil's base to produce the
cooked products for Japanese market is reportedly limited. The U.S. can
be a viable supplier of broiler meat, but is handicapped by its
difficulty to constantly supply the bulk of "boneless cuts -- leg meat"
as Brazil does. An animal health protocol worked out last year between
U.S. and Japan on heat-processed poultry meat and liquid heat-treated
egg products should allow the U.S. to be able to ship the cooked
products irrespective of AI status such as import ban on generic meat
due to HPAI. However, to date, final implementation of the protocol is
pending.

## Japan's Bird Flu Response Measures Effectively Controlling Domestic Concerns 

Japan has had a series of domestic outbreaks and detections of bird flu
(both HPAI and LPAI (Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza) types in recent
years (See note 2). The country has quickly responded by putting in
place strict quarantine and disease prevention measures to prevent
recurrences and the impacts on the domestic production and on actual
market so far have been minimal.

However, weaker prospects on market prices suggest domestic producers
may face difficulties in 2006 in maintaining the same level of output
achieved last year (2005), which rose 4% over the preceding year (2004).
Post projects this year's domestic broiler production to fall by 1% in
2006 at 1.15 million MT.

\[*Background Note:* Massive outbreaks of bird flue (HPAI - highly
pathogenic strain H5n1) hit many parts of Asia in early 2004 literally
shutdown imports of generic broiler meat supplies from Thailand and
China, who were then the two major suppliers of generic broiler meat and
the prepared products to Japan. These two countries now can only ship
cooked products (prepared and processed products) to Japan from MAFF
designated plants under a bilateral health protocol worked out in 2004.
(Note: There are currently 49 plants in Thailand and 35 plants in China
designated by MAFF for exports to Japan of cooked products.) Avian
Influenza problems in Asia appear far from contained as of today with
sporadic outbreaks and human contractions reported even causing human
death cases.

As a result, Japan's total broiler supply is divided with domestic and
Brazilian broiler meat catering to the market for generic meat (mainly
for retail and food service), and Chinese and Thai cooked products cater
the market for prepared foods and processed products both sold at the
retail and the food service. Unfortunately, a series of bird flu
outbreaks in the U.S. triggered a series of import suspensions which
pushed U.S. into a relatively a minor position within the Japanese
broiler market (Note U.S. and Mexico has animal health protocols with
Japan which recognize "regionality", which restricts imports only from
affected states).

Domestically, the latest detections of the low path strain are from
layer farms in one concentrate area of Japan and have reportedly caused
by illegal use of unapproved vaccines by producers (according to
government's interim investigation report). Also, the media has reported
that health checks conducted on workers at poultry farms show that
approximately 70 workers contracted the low path version of the flue in
the past. The local government and MAFF have already taken necessary
actions and put the situation under control.\]

# 2005 Situation Update and Summary

Revised broiler PS&D figures (broiler meat and the prepared and
processed products imports combined) for CY 2005 are constructed based
on preliminary production, trade and stock data available to date.

## Imports Rose Substantially, But Consumption Slow Down Caused Surplus Stock in 2005

As mentioned in the 2006 outlook section, the response to massive
outbreaks of HPAI in Asia in 2004 triggered Japan's imposition of the
broiler meat import ban on China and Thailand. As a result, a large
deficit of imported broiler meat developed. This vacuum was quickly
filled in the first half of 2005 with increased domestic production,
projected up by 4% to 1.165 million MT, and amplified imports of both
broiler meat and cooked products, surged 27% to 748,000 MT in 2005
\[broiler meat, up 18% to 419,000 MT with 90% from Brazil and 7% from
U.S., and the cooked products, up 44% to 329,000 MT with 98% from China
and Thailand\] (See Table 5-a, 5-b and 5-c).

Reflecting the above situation, average wholesale prices of domestic
broiler cuts in 2005 remained as high as the previous year at 580 yen
per kg for boneless leg, up 2% and at 227 Yen per kg for breast meat, up
1% respectively from a year before (See Table 2). Similarly, Japan's
import demand for broiler meat was concentrated mainly on Brazilian
boneless leg cuts in 2005, thus keeping the average wholesale prices in
2005 as high as the previous year at 396 yens per kilo for Brazilian
boneless leg (See table 3). Furthermore, China and Thailand were also
quick to boost their shipments of the cooked products for Japanese
market.

The market particularly picked up very well in the first half, but
somewhat lost steam causing an overall consumption slow down of broiler
meat during the second half in 2005. The annual increase of Japan's
total broiler consumption in 2005 is estimated up by 10% to 1.879
million MT (Broiler meat, up by 4% to 1.55 million MT and the imported
cooked products, up by 44% to 329,000 MT). This drop was due to a
variety of causes including overall lethargy in the food service sector,
and relatively flat household consumption in the second half (See Table
1). Also, the tremendous increase in imports of the cooked products and
increased domestic outputs are other factors, which could have slowed
overall consumption of broiler meat, particularly in the second half of
2005. However, monthly imports of both broiler meat and the cooked
products remained high causing some surplus stocks of imported broiler
meat, which has piled up leaving a relatively large year ending stocks
in 2005 (See Table 4).

### Table 1. Japanese Monthly Household Consumption of Beef, Pork and Chicken

  -------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
  Unit: Grams                                                      
  per Household                                                    

  2004           Beef      \% Chg.   Pork      \% Chg.   Chicken   \% Chg.

  Jan.           525       -14%      1,389     6%        850       -7%

  Feb.           520       -17%      1,447     11%       794       -14%

  Mar.           611       -10%      1,511     9%        776       -19%

  Apr.           573       -15%      1,427     3%        862       -10%

  May            618       -14%      1,458     5%        939       -4%

  Jun.           587       -18%      1,463     8%        884       -2%

  July           593       -9%       1,403     4%        795       -11%

  Aug.           663       -12%      1,443     7%        889       1%

  Sept.          535       -13%      1,353     2%        924       6%

  Oct.           599       -8%       1,499     8%        1,020     2%

  Nov.           555       -12%      1,448     3%        973       -6%

  Dec.           743       -6%       1,497     1%        1,235     -5%

  2005           Beef      \% Chg.   Pork      \% Chg.   Chicken   \% Chg.

  Jan.           575       10%       1,412     2%        939       11%

  Feb.           537       3%        1,375     -5%       927       17%

  Mar.           602       -1%       1,453     -4%       980       26%

  Apr.           579       1%        1,435     1%        943       9%

  May            651       5%        1,455     0%        1,004     7%

  Jun.           548       -7%       1,396     -5%       873       -1%

  July           545       -8%       1,351     -4%       860       8%

  Aug.           629       -5%       1,376     -5%       847       -5%

  Sept.          556       4%        1,403     4%        931       1%

  Oct.           612       2%        1,491     0%        990       -3%

  Nov.           589       6%        1,512     4%        1,026     5%

  Dec.           0                   0                   0         0%

  Source: Meat                                                     
  and Livestock                                                    
  Daily, January                                                   
  12, Issue                                                        
  -------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

### Table 2. Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Broiler Cuts in Tokyo

  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Unit: Yen                                                    
  per Kg.                                                      

  Boneless Leg                                                 

               2003        2004        \% Chg.     2005        \% Chg.

                                                                

  1st Qtr Ave. 689         559         -19%        639         14%

  2nd Qtr Ave. 557         535         -4%         581         9%

  3rd Qtr Ave. 515         556         8%          529         -5%

  4th Qtr Ave. 630         619         -2%         571         -8%

  Year Ave.    598         567         -5%         580         2%

  Breast                                                       

               2003        2004        \% Chg.     2005        \% Chg.

  1st Qtr Ave. 210         220         5%          219         -1%

  2nd Qtr Ave. 196         196         -0%         219         12%

  3rd Qtr Ave. 227         239         5%          230         -4%

  4th Qtr Ave. 215         239         11%         239         0%

  Year Ave.    212         224         5%          227         1%

  Source: ALIC                                                 
  Monthly                                                      
  Statistics                                                   
  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

### Table 3. Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Imported Broiler Cuts in Kanto Region

  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Unit: Yen per                                                 
  Kg.                                                           

  Imported:                                                     
  Brazilian                                                     
  Bone-less Leg                                                 
  (Frozen)                                                      

                2003        2004        \% Chg.     2005        \% Chg.

  1st Qtr Ave.  310         418         35%         373         -11%

  2nd Qtr Ave.  326         409         25%         401         -2%

  3rd Qtr Ave.  377         381         1%          399         5%

  4th Qtr Ave.  334         376         13%         410         9%

  Year Ave.     337         396         18%         396         -0%

                                                                 

  Imported:                                                     
  U.S. Bone-in                                                  
  Leg (Frozen)                                                  

                2003        2004        \% Chg.     2005        \% Chg.

  1st Qtr Ave.  287         333         16%         295         -11%

  2nd Qtr Ave.  294         357         22%         280         -22%

  3rd Qtr Ave.  317         381         20%         283         -26%

  4th Qtr Ave.  319         334         4%          306         -8%

  Year Ave.     304         351         15%         291         -17%

  Source: ALIC                                                  
  Monthly                                                       
  Statistics                                                    
  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

### Table 4. Monthly Ending Poultry Stock Estimates

  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Unit: Metric                                                   
  Ton                                                            

                 2003        2004        \% Chg.     2005        \% Chg.

  Jan.           127,442     94,163      -26%        93,189      -1%

  Feb.           125,793     88,381      -30%        90,333      2%

  Mar.           120,419     92,965      -23%        90,039      -3%

  Apr.           111,785     85,873      -23%        91,503      7%

  May            102,292     91,218      -11%        97,408      7%

  Jun.           97,187      87,201      -10%        104,239     20%

  Jul.           101,261     88,593      -13%        110,889     25%

  Aug.           104,277     88,192      -15%        118,552     34%

  Sep.           105,921     89,655      -15%        120,846     35%

  Oct.           110,951     88,353      -20%        125,384     42%

  Nov.           110,581     93,455      -15%        127,218     36%

  Dec.           95,736      87,988      -8%                     \-

  Note: Data is                                                  
  of poultry, in                                                 
  which the                                                      
  majority is of                                                 
  broiler meat                                                   
  (No                                                            
  breakdowns)                                                    

  Source: ALIC                                                   
  Monthly                                                        
  Statistics                                                     
  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

### Table 5-a. Japanese Imports of Total Broiler Including Prepared Products 2005 

  -------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Unit: Metric                                                             
  Ton (Customs                                                             
  Clearance                                                                
  Basis)                                                                   

                                                                \% Change  \%

  Rank           Country       2003       2004       2005       \- 05/04 - \- 05
                                                                           Share -

                               Jan/Dec    Jan/Dec    Jan/Dec    Jan/Dec    Jan/Dec

  0              \--World\--   694,340    582,000    748,207    29%        100%

  1              Brazil        175,355    298,687    381,954    28%        51%

  2              China         195,283    131,702    179,388    36%        24%

  3              Thailand      265,922    110,789    146,044    32%        20%

  4              United States 50,843     29,770     29,383     -1%        4%

  5              Chile         90         3,867      5,949      54%        1%

  6              Philippines   45         1,018      1,651      62%        0%

  7              Argentina     60         291        1,134      289%       0%

  8              Poland        0          309        1,019      230%       0%

  9              Korea, South  698        396        931        135%       0%

  10             Others        6,043      5,170      753        -85%       0%

  Product HS                                                               
  Code: HS                                                                 
  0207.11,                                                                 
  0207.12, HS                                                              
  0207.13, HS                                                              
  0207.14.210,                                                             
  HS 0207.14.220                                                           
  and HS                                                                   
  1602.32.290                                                              

  Source of                                                                
  data: Japan                                                              
  Customs (World                                                           
  Trade Atlas)                                                             
  -------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 5-b. Japanese Imports of Broiler Meat 2005

  -------------- -------------- --------- --------- --------- ----------- -------------
  Unit: Metric                                                            
  Ton (Customs                                                            
  Clearance                                                               
  Basis)                                                                  

                                                              \% Change   \%

  Rank           Country        2003      2004      2005      \- 05/04 -  \- 05 Share -

                                Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec     Jan/Dec

  0              \--World\--    466,115   353,791   419,119   18%         100%

  1              Brazil         174,941   296,053   378,465   28%         90%

  2              United States  47,185    29,586    28,924    -2%         7%

  3              Chile          90        3,867     5,949     54%         1%

  4              Philippines    45        1,017     1,643     62%         0%

  5              Others         243,853   23,268    4,137     -82%        1%

  Product HS                                                              
  Code: HS                                                                
  0207.14.220,                                                            
  HS                                                                      
  0207.14.210,                                                            
  HS 020712, HS                                                           
  0207.13 and                                                             
  0207.11                                                                 

  Source of                                                               
  data: Japan                                                             
  Customs (World                                                          
  Trade Atlas)                                                            
  -------------- -------------- --------- --------- --------- ----------- -------------

### Table 5-c. Japanese Imports of Prepared Broiler Products 2005

  ------------- -------------- --------- --------- --------- ----------- -------------
  Unit: Metric                                                           
  Ton (Customs                                                           
  Clearance                                                              
  Basis)                                                                 

                                                             \% Change   \%

  Rank          Country        2003      2004      2005      \- 05/04 -  \- 05 Share -

                               Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec   Jan/Dec     Jan/Dec

  0             \--World\--    228,225   228,209   329,088   44%         100%

  1             China          132,353   123,282   178,410   45%         54%

  2             Thailand       90,750    98,541    145,983   48%         44%

  3             Brazil         414       2,634     3,489     32%         1%

  4             Korea, South   338       345       642       86%         0%

  5             United States  3,658     184       459       150%        0%

  6             Others         711       3,224     105       -97%        0%

  Product HS                                                             
  Code: HS                                                               
  1602.32.290                                                            

  Source of                                                              
  data: Japan                                                            
  Customs                                                                
  (World Trade                                                           
  Atlas)                                                                 
  ------------- -------------- --------- --------- --------- ----------- -------------

### Broiler PS&D Table

+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Japan          |      |      |      |      |      |      |       |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      |       |
| Poultry, Meat, |      |      |      |      |      |      |       |
| Broiler        |      |      |      |      |      |      |       |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
|                | 2004 | Rev  | 2005 | Esti | 2006 | Fore | UOM   |
|                |      | ised |      | mate |      | cast |       |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
|                | USDA | Post | USDA | Post | USDA | Post |       |
|                | Offi | Esti | Offi | Esti | Offi | Esti |       |
|                | cial | mate | cial | mate | cial | mate |       |
|                | \[O  |      | \[O  |      | \[O  |      |       |
|                | ld\] | \[N  | ld\] | \[N  | ld\] | \[N  |       |
|                |      | ew\] |      | ew\] |      | ew\] |       |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Market Year    |      | 01/  |      | 01/  |      | 01/  | MM    |
| Begin          |      | 2004 |      | 2005 |      | 2006 | /YYYY |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Inventory      | 105  | 105  | 105  | 103  | 103  | 103  | (MIL  |
| (Reference)    |      |      |      |      |      |      | HEAD) |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Slaughter      | 590  | 590  | 595  | 600  | 590  | 595  | (MIL  |
| (Reference)    |      |      |      |      |      |      | HEAD) |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Beginning      | 96   | 96   | 88   | 88   | 92   | 122  | (1000 |
| Stocks         |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Production     | 1124 | 1124 | 1130 | 1165 | 1125 | 1150 | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Whole, Imports | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Parts, Imports | 582  | 582  | 695  | 748  | 680  | 720  | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Intra EC       | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
| Imports        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Other Imports  | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Imports  | 582  | 582  | 695  | 748  | 680  | 720  | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY   | 1802 | 1802 | 1913 | 2001 | 1897 | 1992 | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Whole, Exports | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Parts, Exports | 1    | 1    | 1    | 0    | 1    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Intra EC       | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
| Exports        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Other Exports  | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Exports  | 1    | 1    | 1    | 0    | 1    | 0    | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Human          | 1713 | 1713 | 1820 | 1879 | 1810 | 1880 | (1000 |
| Consumption    |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Other Use,     | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000 |
| Losses         |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Total Dom.     | 1713 | 1713 | 1820 | 1879 | 1810 | 1880 | (1000 |
| Consumption    |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL Use      | 1714 | 1714 | 1821 | 1879 | 1811 | 1880 | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks  | 88   | 88   | 92   | 122  | 86   | 112  | (1000 |
|                |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| TOTAL          | 1802 | 1802 | 1913 | 2001 | 1897 | 1992 | (1000 |
| DISTRIBUTION   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Calendar Yr.   | 31   | 31   | 44   | 30   | 0    | 35   | (1000 |
| Imp. from U.S. |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)   |
+----------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+