Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Paloma

(AL172008)

5-9 November 2008

Michael J. Brennan

National Hurricane Center

26 January 2009

Updated 4 February 2009 for modification to best track over Cuba and
landfall location

Hurricane Paloma was a powerful hurricane that formed in the western
Caribbean Sea and impacted the Cayman Islands before making landfall in
Cuba and rapidly weakening. Paloma reached category 4 intensity (on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and became the second-strongest November
Atlantic hurricane on record.

a.  Synoptic History

    Paloma originated from a broad area of disturbed weather that
    developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on 1 November.
    Convection in this region was intermittent for a couple of days but
    became more persistent on 4 November, and Dvorak classifications
    were initiated on the disturbance at 0000 UTC that day. The system
    continued to become better organized and is estimated to have
    developed into a tropical depression around 1800 UTC 5 November,
    about 115 n mi southeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The "best
    track" chart of Paloma's path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and
    pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best
    track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1[^1].

    At the time of genesis, the depression was located on the
    southwestern edge of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over the
    eastern Caribbean, resulting in an initial motion toward the
    northwest. The tropical cyclone was situated in a small region of
    relatively low wind shear south of a belt of strong upper-level
    winds associated with a long wave mid- to upper-level trough
    centered in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of low shear and
    favorable oceanic conditions allowed the depression to steadily
    intensify, and the depression became a tropical storm around 0600
    UTC 6 November about 60 n mi east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
    Paloma then turned toward the north as it continued to move around
    the periphery of the ridge and reached hurricane status around 0000
    UTC 7 November, about 155 n mi south-southwest of Grand Cayman.

    Paloma began to rapidly intensify late on 7 November and became a
    major hurricane around 0000 UTC 8 November. This intensification may
    have occurred partly in response to an increase in upper-level
    divergence over the cyclone, as indicated in the SHIPS model
    analysis, while the cyclone was located in a region of very
    favorable oceanic conditions for intensification. This increase in
    divergence aloft occurred ahead of an approaching upper-level trough
    digging into the Gulf of Mexico, which also appears responsible for
    enhancing the outflow on the northwestern periphery of the cyclone
    early on 8 November. Paloma reached its peak intensity of 125 kt
    (category 4) around 1200 UTC that day as it turned toward the
    northeast (Fig. 4). During the 24-h period ending at 1200 UTC 8
    November, Paloma's intensity increased by 50 kt. At its peak
    intensity, Paloma became the second strongest November Atlantic
    hurricane on record; only Hurricane Lenny (1999) was stronger (135
    kt)[^2]. Paloma was a category 4 hurricane when the cyclone's eye
    passed just to the southeast of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, with
    the northwestern eyewall passing over the eastern end of Cayman
    Brac.

    Late on 8 November and early on 9 November, Paloma began to weaken
    as vertical wind shear increased markedly as the aforementioned mid-
    to upper-level trough continued to move eastward. According to the
    SHIPS model analysis, the magnitude of the shear increased from 27
    kt at 1800 UTC 8 November to 40 kt at 0000 UTC 9 November. As the
    hurricane approached Cuba, the strong upper-level southwesterly
    winds advected the mid- and upper-level portions of Paloma's
    circulation rapidly to the northeast (Fig. 5). While weakening,
    Paloma crossed the Jardines de la Reina archipelago and its center
    made landfall around 0100 UTC 9 November near Santa Cruz del Sur,
    Camagüey, Cuba. At the time of landfall, Paloma is estimated to have
    been a category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of around
    85 kt.

    After landfall, the low-level center of Paloma continued
    northeastward for a short time, then slowed and turned toward the
    northwest while it continued to decouple from the deep layer flow.
    The cyclone weakened rapidly due to continued strong vertical wind
    shear, a decrease in deep convection, and interaction with the
    landmass of Cuba. Paloma became a tropical storm around 0600 UTC 9
    November and further weakened to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC
    that day. During the 24-h period ending at 1200 UTC 9 November,
    Paloma weakened by 90 kt, from a 125-kt category 4 hurricane
    (Fig. 6) to a 35-kt tropical storm (Fig. 7). By 0000 UTC 10
    November, no deep convection was present near the circulation of
    Paloma, marking the degeneration of the cyclone into a remnant low.

    On 10 November, the remnant low of Paloma moved slowly northward
    into the Atlantic waters just north of east-central Cuba before
    becoming nearly stationary early on 11 November. Later that day, as
    a low-level ridge built to the north over the western Atlantic,
    Paloma's remnants completed a small anticyclonic loop, and began
    moving southwestward across Cuba before re-entering the northwestern
    Caribbean early on 12 November. The remnant low turned toward the
    west and west-northwest later that day, around the western periphery
    of the low-level ridge, and passed just north of the Isle of Youth
    around 0000 UTC 13 November before crossing the western tip of Cuba
    and entering the Gulf of Mexico. As Paloma's remnants accelerated
    northward, the surface low center became ill-defined early on 14
    November, about 60 n mi south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.
    Although the low-level center dissipated, remnant moisture
    contributed to the development of heavy rainfall in the Florida
    panhandle later that day.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Paloma (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based
    Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as
    well as flight-level, stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR),
    and dropwindsonde observations from seven flights of the 53^rd^
    Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve
    Command and three flights of the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
    (AOC) WP-3D aircraft. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft flew two
    synoptic surveillance missions around Paloma. Data and imagery from
    NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring
    Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological
    Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful
    in tracking Paloma. Radar data from Cuba were helpful in tracking
    Paloma as it approached and made landfall on the island.

    The 125-kt (category 4) estimated peak intensity of Paloma at 1200
    UTC 8 November is based on blend of a 127-kt wind measurement from
    the SFMR around 1110 UTC and a maximum flight-level wind of 134 kt
    measured at 0935 UTC, which corresponds to a surface wind estimate
    of 121 kt using the standard 90 percent adjustment factor. This
    intensity was maintained at 1800 UTC based on a flight level
    wind-maximum of 142 kt at 1931 UTC, which equates to 128-kt at the
    surface using the standard adjustment, and a wind measurement of 124
    kt from the SFMR at 1935 UTC. Paloma began to weaken rapidly late on
    8 November as indicated by decreasing SFMR and flight-level wind
    measurements and rising central pressure. The intensity at landfall
    is estimated to be 85 kt (category 2). This estimate is based on a
    flight-level wind maximum of 94 kt measured around 2315 UTC 8
    November, which equates to 85 kt at the surface using the standard
    flight level to surface adjustment, and an observed 78-kt sustained
    wind at 0130 UTC 9 November at Santa Cruz del Sur, Camagüey, Cuba.

    Selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are
    given in Table 2. No ship reports of winds of tropical storm force
    or greater were associated with Paloma. On Cayman Brac an unofficial
    anemometer at an elevation of 27 meters measured a sustained wind of
    131 kt around 1200 UTC 8 November, near the time of Paloma's maximum
    intensity. On Grand Cayman, the highest reported sustained wind was
    52 kt at the Owen Roberts International Airport on the western side
    of the island at 2206 UTC 7 November. On the eastern side of Grand
    Cayman, an automated station reported a maximum sustained wind of 50
    kt.

    In Cuba, the highest reported sustained wind was that mentioned
    above at Santa Cruz del Sur, where a gust of 105 kt was also
    measured. Elsewhere in Camagüey, the highest reported sustained
    winds were between 34 and 39 kt, with gusts around 50 kt.

    The minimum pressure in Paloma is estimated to be 944 mb around 1200
    UTC 8 November based on a dropsonde measurement in the eye of 945 mb
    around 0930 UTC and another dropsonde that measured a pressure of
    946 mb with 24 kt of wind at the surface at 1112 UTC. The minimum
    pressure measured on Cayman Brac was 959 mb at 0900 UTC 8 November.
    The landfall pressure is estimated to be around 970 mb based on
    continued weakening of the cyclone after the final dropsonde
    pressure measurement of 968 mb at 2305 UTC 8 November. The lowest
    pressure measured in Cuba was 985 mb at Santa Cruz del Sur at 0010
    UTC 9 November.

    Paloma produced 17.77 inches of rain on Cayman Brac, with 6.05
    inches reported on Grand Cayman. In Cuba, Paloma produced rainfall
    totals of 5 to 10 inches across portions of Camagüey, with a maximum
    of 10.62 inches at Palo Seco. In Las Tunas, rainfall of around 2 to
    3 inches was reported.

    A storm surge of 4 to 8 feet is estimated to have occurred on Cayman
    Brac, with 2 to 4 feet estimated on Little Cayman. No storm surge
    height estimates were received from Cuba, however the Cuban
    Meteorological Service reported that storm surge penetrated inland
    0.8 n mi in Santa Cruz del Sur and 0.4 n mi in Guayabal.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    No direct casualties or fatalities were reported in association with
    Paloma.

    The greatest impacts from Paloma occurred on Cayman Brac and Little
    Cayman. On Cayman Brac nearly every building on the island was
    damaged or destroyed, according to media reports from the Cayman Net
    News. Damage on Little Cayman appears to have been less severe, but
    trees and power lines along with some buildings were significantly
    damaged. An official monetary estimate of damages from the Cayman
    Islands is not available as of this writing, but media reports from
    Cayman Net News suggest damages were between \$15 and \$20 million
    (USD). According to the Cuban government, Paloma caused around \$1.4
    billion (USD) in damage on that island.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The genesis of Paloma was fairly well anticipated. The area of
    disturbed weather that became Paloma was first mentioned in the
    Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) at 1800 UTC\
    2 November, 72 h prior to genesis. The initial genesis forecast was
    in the "low" category (less than 20% probability of genesis in 48
    h), and the probability was increased to "medium"\
    (20--50% probability of genesis) at 0000 UTC 3 November and remained
    in this category for\
    36 h. Six hours prior to genesis, at 1200 UTC 5 November, the
    genesis forecast was increased to "high" (greater than 50%
    probability of genesis). While the genesis of Paloma was well
    anticipated overall, the probability of genesis was not raised into
    the "high" category until just prior to genesis.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 3. Average official track errors for Paloma were 31,
    58, 80, 105, 171, and 173 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h
    forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged from 15 at
    12 h to one at 96 h. These errors are lower than the average 5-yr
    official track errors at all forecast times except at 24 h, when the
    official error was similar to the average 5-yr error, and at 72 h,
    when the official error was above the average 5-yr error (Table 3).
    The GFSI was the best single model for track and had a smaller mean
    error than the official track forecast at all forecast lead times
    through 72 h. The GUNA and FSSE consensus track models also had
    smaller mean errors than the official forecast from 24 through 72 h
    for the heterogeneous sample. However, for a homogeneous sample, the
    official forecast had a smaller mean error than GUNA at all times
    through 72 h. The official forecast was also more competitive with
    the FSSE in the homogeneous sample, having a smaller mean error at
    12 and 72 h. Much of the track error in the official forecast at
    longer lead times was due to difficulty in determining how quickly
    Paloma's low-level circulation would decouple from the fast mid- to
    upper-level flow. This uncertainty was also seen in much of the
    available track model guidance. From late on 5 November through
    early 8 November, the official forecasts carried Paloma too far to
    the northeast across Cuba, when in reality the cyclone weakened
    rapidly and slowed down dramatically after landfall (Fig. 8).

    A verification of official and guidance model intensity forecasts is
    given in Table 4. Average official intensity errors were 14, 20, 23,
    28, 36, and 50 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h forecasts,
    respectively. These errors were much larger than the average 5-yr
    official intensity errors, which are 7, 10, 12, 14, 18, and 20 kt,
    respectively. The large errors in the official forecast were due to
    a failure to accurately predict the timing and magnitude of both
    Paloma's rapid intensification and subsequent rapid weakening (Fig.
    9). However, a number of the official forecasts did correctly
    anticipate significant strengthening followed by considerable
    weakening.

Watches and warnings associated with Paloma are given in Table 5. The
government of the Cayman Islands issued a hurricane watch for those
islands at 1500 UTC 6 November, approximately 30 hours prior to the
onset of tropical storm conditions on Grand Cayman. A hurricane warning
was issued at 2100 UTC that day, approximately 24 hours prior to the
onset of tropical storm conditions on Grand Cayman. While it is
uncertain exactly when tropical storm or hurricane conditions began on
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, the hurricane warning was issued
approximately 36 h prior to the closest approach of Paloma's center to
those islands. A hurricane watch was issued by the Cuban government for
portions of that island, including the province of Camagüey where Paloma
made landfall, at 1200 UTC 7 November, approximately 36 hours prior to
landfall. A hurricane warning was issued for Camagüey at 2100 UTC that
day, approximately 27 hours in advance of landfall.

e.  Acknowledgements

> The Cayman Islands Airports Authority and the Meteorological Service
> of Cuba provided storm summaries for observation sites in their
> respective countries. The National Data Buoy Center supplied a storm
> summary for NOAA Buoy 42057.
>
> Number range CHAPTER Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9
> November 2008.

+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| Da      | L       | Lon    | Pr     | Wind    | Stage              |
| te/Time | atitude | gitude | essure | Speed   |                    |
|         |         |        |        |         |                    |
| (UTC)   | (°N)    | (°W)   | (mb)   | (kt)    |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 05 /    | 13.7    | 81.7   | 1004   | 25      | tropical           |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         | depression         |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 06 /    | 14.2    | 82.0   | 1004   | 30      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 06 /    | 14.8    | 82.1   | 1003   | 35      | tropical storm     |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 06 /    | 15.4    | 82.0   | 1000   | 40      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 06 /    | 16.1    | 81.9   | 994    | 55      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 07 /    | 16.8    | 81.8   | 987    | 65      | hurricane          |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 07 /    | 17.4    | 81.7   | 985    | 65      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 07 /    | 18.0    | 81.6   | 979    | 75      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 07 /    | 18.6    | 81.4   | 975    | 80      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    | 19.0    | 81.0   | 964    | 100     | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    | 19.4    | 80.4   | 951    | 110     | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    | 19.8    | 79.6   | 944    | 125     | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    | 20.2    | 78.8   | 951    | 125     | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 09 /    | 20.7    | 78.0   | 968    | 90      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 09 /    | 21.0    | 77.7   | 990    | 55      | tropical storm     |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 09 /    | 21.3    | 77.8   | 1002   | 35      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 09 /    | 21.6    | 77.9   | 1004   | 25      | tropical           |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         | depression         |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 10 /    | 21.8    | 77.9   | 1005   | 25      | low                |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 10 /    | 22.1    | 77.8   | 1006   | 25      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 10 /    | 22.4    | 77.7   | 1007   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 10 /    | 22.5    | 77.6   | 1008   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /    | 22.4    | 77.5   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /    | 22.1    | 77.6   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /    | 21.8    | 77.9   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /    | 21.3    | 78.3   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /    | 20.9    | 78.8   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /    | 20.8    | 79.7   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /    | 21.0    | 80.7   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /    | 21.4    | 81.7   | 1009   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /    | 22.1    | 82.8   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /    | 22.8    | 83.8   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /    | 23.8    | 84.7   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /    | 25.0    | 85.5   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 1800    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /    | 26.8    | 85.9   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0000    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /    | 28.9    | 85.6   | 1010   | 20      | \"                 |
| 0600    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /    |         |        |        |         | dissipated         |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         |                    |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    | 19.8    | 79.6   | 944    | 125     | Maximum wind and   |
| 1200    |         |        |        |         | minimum pressure   |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 08 /    |         |        |        | 95      | Landfall of        |
| 2300    |         |        |        |         | northern eyewall   |
|         |         |        |        |         | in Cuba            |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+
| 09 /    | 20.7    | 78.0   | 970    | 85      | Landfall near      |
| 0100    |         |        |        |         | Santa Cruz del     |
|         |         |        |        |         | Sur, Camagüey,     |
|         |         |        |        |         | Cuba               |
+---------+---------+--------+--------+---------+--------------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Number range CHAPTERSelected surface
observations for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November 2008.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Cayman        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Islands**       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cayman Brac     | 0   | 95  | 0   | 1     |     |     | 4-8 | 17  |
|                 | 8/0 | 9.0 | 8/1 | 31^e^ |     |     |     | .77 |
|                 | 900 |     | 200 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Grand Cayman -- | 0   | 99  | 0   | 52    |     |     |     | 6   |
| Owen Roberts    | 7/0 | 8.0 | 7/2 |       |     |     |     | .05 |
| International   | 100 |     | 206 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Airport (MWCR)  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Little Cayman   |     |     |     |       |     |     | 2-4 |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Cuba**        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Las Tunas**   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Puerto Padre    | 0   | 100 | 0   | 30    | 40  |     |     | 2   |
| (78358)         | 9/0 | 6.7 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .83 |
|                 | 710 |     | 523 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Las Tunas       | 0   | 100 | 0   | 21    | 30  |     |     | 1   |
| (78357)         | 9/0 | 6.0 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .79 |
|                 | 500 |     | 525 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Camagüey**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santa Cruz del  | 0   | 98  | 0   | 78    | 105 |     |     | 5   |
| Sur (78351)     | 9/0 | 4.9 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .43 |
|                 | 010 |     | 130 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nuevitas        | 0   | 100 | 0   | 39    | 52  |     |     | 6   |
| (78353)         | 9/0 | 6.4 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .80 |
|                 | 700 |     | 415 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Camagüey        |     |     | 0   | 38    | 54  |     |     | 3   |
| (78355)         |     |     | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .72 |
|                 |     |     | 155 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Palo Seco       | 0   | 100 | 0   | 34    | 49  |     |     | 10  |
| (78354)         | 9/0 | 4.2 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     | .62 |
|                 | 330 |     | 350 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Florida (78350) | 0   | 100 | 0   | 34    | 48  |     |     | 1   |
|                 | 8/2 | 4.3 | 8/2 |       |     |     |     | .12 |
|                 | 230 |     | 230 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Esmeralda       | 0   | 100 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (78352)         | 8/2 | 6.1 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 000 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Buoys**       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 42057 | 0   | 99  | 0   | 61^f^ | 74  |     |     |     |
| -- Western      | 6/2 | 2.9 | 6/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Caribbean       | 259 |     | 239 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ 27-m anemometer elevation.

^f^ Wind averaging period is 1 min.

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Track forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November 2008. Forecast errors (n mi)
are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller
than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 45    | 90    | 136   | 195 ( | 282 ( | 362 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 38    | 79    | 114 ( | 150 ( | 206 ( |       |       |
|           | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 3)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 39    | 64    | *     | 108 ( | **    | *     |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | *79** | 9)    | 148** | *57** |       |
|           |       |       | (11)  |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 35    | *     | 85    | 106 ( | **    | **    |       |
|           | (15)  | *57** | (11)  | 9)    | 118** | 123** |       |
|           |       | (13)  |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | 244 ( |       |
|           | *29** | *43** | *60** | *82** | 109** | 1)    |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 42    | 75    | 102   | 125 ( | **    |       |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 165** |       |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 37    | 74    | 123   | 186 ( | 397 ( | 753 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 36    | 76    | 112 ( | 145 ( | 219 ( |       |       |
|           | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 3)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EGRI      | 36    | 76    | 112 ( | 146 ( | 227 ( |       |       |
|           | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 3)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | 41    | 86    | 123   | 149 ( | 195 ( | **    |       |
|           | (12)  | (11)  | (10)  | 8)    | 4)    | 111** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 70    | 123   | 173   | 222 ( | 229 ( | **    |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 161** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 42    | 70    | 100   | 132 ( | 194 ( | 408 ( |       |
|           | (14)  | (12)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 54    | 100   | 137   | 158 ( | 222 ( | 541 ( |       |
|           | (14)  | (12)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | 45    | 85    | 127   | 161 ( | 275 ( | 361 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TVCN      | 34    | 60    | 84    | 113 ( | 176 ( | 209 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 32    | *     | *     | *     | **    |       |       |
|           | (13)  | *55** | *76** | *98** | 136** |       |       |
|           |       | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |       |       |
|           | *30** | *46** | *54** | *70** | *98** |       |       |
|           | (12)  | (10)  | ( 8)  | ( 6)  | ( 2)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 31    | 58    | 80    | 105 ( | 171 ( | 173 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 34.0  | 58.2  | 82.2  | 106.2 | 154.2 | 207.5 | 272.5 |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (996) | (787) | (627) |
|           | 1742) | 1574) | 1407) | 1254) |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2003-2007 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 4. Intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November 2008. Forecast errors (kt) are followed
by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC
official forecast are shown in boldface type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OCD5      | 20.1  | 30.6  | 38.1  | 39.4  | 37.6  | **1   |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  | 6.0** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI      | 19.0  | 22.2  | **2   | 29.9  | **3   | 61.0  |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | 1.8** | ( 9)  | 3.4** | ( 1)  |       |
|           |       |       | (11)  |       | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 16.6  | 21.9  | 27.4  | **2   | **3   | **4   |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 5.3** | 2.0** | 3.0** |       |
|           |       |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LGEM      | 20.0  | 28.7  | 33.2  | 37.0  | **3   | **3   |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | 4.6** | 3.0** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 17.5  | 23.8  | 28.1  | 32.4  | **3   | **3   |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | 2.4** | 5.0** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 23.1  | 29.5  | 31.4  | 30.5  | 39.5  |       |       |
|           | (12)  | (10)  | ( 8)  | ( 6)  | ( 2)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | 17.9  | 24.0  | 27.4  | 29.4  | **3   | **4   |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | 1.6** | 3.0** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 14.0  | 19.6  | 22.7  | 28.3  | 36.0  | 50.0  |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.7   | 10.0  | 12.3  | 14.3  | 18.2  | 19.7  | 21.8  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (996) | (787) | (627) |
|           | 1742) | 1574) | 1407) | 1254) |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2003-2007 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 5. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Paloma, 5--9 November 2008.

  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                         Location
  (UTC)                                      

  5 / 2100    Tropical Storm Watch issued    Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, to\
                                             Limon, Honduras

  6 / 1500    Hurricane Watch issued         Cayman Islands

  6 / 2100    Hurricane Watch upgraded to    Cayman Islands
              Hurricane Warning              

  6 / 2100    Tropical Storm Watch           Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, to\
              discontinued                   Limon, Honduras

  7 / 1200    Hurricane Watch issued         Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
                                             Avila, Camagüey, Las Tunas,
                                             and\
                                             Granma, Cuba

  7 / 2100    Hurricane Watch upgraded to    Sancti Spiritus Ciego de
              Hurricane Warning              Avila, Camagüey, and Las
                                             Tunas, Cuba

  7 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning issued  Granma, Cuba

  8 / 0900    Tropical Storm Warning issued  Holguin and Santiago de Cuba,
                                             Cuba

  08 / 0900   Tropical Storm Watch issued    Central Bahamas

  08 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning and     Granma, Cuba
              Hurricane Watch upgraded to    
              Hurricane Warning              

  08 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning         Holguin, Cuba
              upgraded to Hurricane Warning  

  08 / 1500   Hurricane Warning discontinued Sancti Spiritus, Cuba

  08 / 2100   Hurricane Warning discontinued Grand Cayman

  08 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch upgraded  Central Bahamas
              to Tropical Storm Warning      

  09 / 0000   Hurricane Warning discontinued Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

  09 / 1200   Hurricane Warning discontinued Ciego de Avila, Camagüey, Las
                                             Tunas, Granma, and Holguin,
                                             Cuba

  09 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning         Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
              discontinued                   

  09 /1500    Tropical Storm Warning         Central Bahamas
              discontinued                   
  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="7.523611111111111in"
height="5.813888888888889in"}

Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November 2008.

Number range CHAPTER![](media/image2.wmf){width="6.879861111111111in"
height="4.684722222222222in"}

Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained
surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November 2008.
Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%,
and 80% adjustment factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and
1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m
winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind
over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the sounding
boundary layer mean (MBL). Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear
averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation
time. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC. The time of landfall
is indicated by the vertical black line.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.152777777777778in" height="4.875in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Paloma, 5--9 November
2008. Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages over a
three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time. Dashed
vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC. The time of landfall is indicated
by the vertical black line.

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="5.416666666666667in"
height="5.416666666666667in"}

Figure 4. SSMIS 91-GHz color composite image of Hurricane Paloma at 1329
UTC 8 November 2008. Image courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research
Laboratory.

![](media/image5.jpeg){width="5.416666666666667in"
height="5.416666666666667in"}

Figure 5. As in Fig. 4, except at 0043 UTC 9 November 2008. Image
courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

![](media/image6.png){width="7.001388888888889in"
height="5.600694444444445in"}

Figure 6. *GOES-12* visible satellite image of Paloma at 1345 UTC 8
November 2008, near the time of the cyclone's peak intensity.

![](media/image7.png){width="7.001388888888889in"
height="5.600694444444445in"}

Figure 7. *GOES-12* visible satellite image of Paloma at 1345 UTC 9
November 2008 as the cyclone is weakening rapidly after landfall.

Number range CHAPTER![](media/image8.png){width="9.440277777777778in"
height="5.473611111111111in"}

Figure 8. Official track forecasts (black lines) for Hurricane Paloma
from 1800 UTC 5 November through 0000 UTC 8 November 2008. The best
track of Paloma is indicated by the red line with positions given at 6 h
intervals.

![](media/image9.png){width="7.198611111111111in"
height="5.440972222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 9. Time series of official intensity
forecasts (black lines) for Hurricane Paloma from 1800 UTC 5 November
through 1800 UTC 9 November 2008. The best track intensity of Paloma is
indicated by the red line.

[^1]: A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii,
    can be found on line at <ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf>. Data for the
    current year's storms are located in the *btk* directory, while
    previous years' data are located in the *archive* directory.

[^2]: This ranking is subject to revision based on potential adjustments
    to the best-track intensity of the November 1932 hurricane.