# 6 Key Findings and Recommendations: The Way Ahead

## 6.1 Introduction

To improve the predictability of tropical cyclones will require a
concentrated, collaborative, all-inclusive community effort. Accurate
forecasts of tropical cyclone behavior are a critical need for many
segments of society. Obtaining a better understanding of the complex
interactions of tropical cyclone intensity, structure, track, and
environmental forcing is too large a problem for any single research
entity or Federal agency to address alone.

As shown in chapters 1 and 2, numerous organizations and entities in the
public and private sector, including the academic community, contribute
to tropical cyclone research. It is imperative that this community of
practice (see section 1.5) work together to further improve the forecast
skill of all tropical cyclone--related components (e.g., intensity and
structure \[wind radii\], track, sea state and storm surge, and
precipitation). Table 6-1 illustrates the community of practice.
Additionally, social sciences research needs to be enhanced and
integrated with the research of other disciplines, and those results
must be incorporated into operational procedures. The key findings and
recommendations that are summarized later in this chapter involve all of
these organizations/entities. This all-inclusive plan provides a
collaborative "way ahead" for the Nation's tropical cyclone program.

To review, chapter 1 illustrated the fundamental rationale for
continuing efforts to further advance the Nation's tropical cyclone
forecasts and warnings. It introduced the operational centers for the
Nation's tropical cyclone warning service, serving both civilian and
military needs, and the community of practice that supports these
operational centers. Chapter 2 described in more detail the community of
practice and also reviewed recent and concurrent planning activities
that were taken into account in formulating the research priorities. The
results of the planned R&D will need to be transitioned to operational
NWP models to reap real benefits for the Nation.

Chapter 3 assessed the current capabilities and limitations of the
Nation's tropical cyclone warning service. These capabilities constitute
a classic end-to-end meteorological warning and forecasting system, from
data collection through data assimilation and NWP modeling to
dissemination of warnings and forecasts, including end-user education,
training, and outreach. Chapter 4 used the same end-to-end system
structure to present the JAG/TCR's perspective on future capabilities
planned to meet the operational needs identified by the operational
centers. To continue to advance operational tropical cyclone forecasting
capability and to meet the operational needs, the Nation must be
committed to supporting---through research, development, and transition
to operations---the following key areas vital to the tropical cyclone
forecast and warning program:

-   Advanced observations

-   Advanced data assimilation technologies

-   Advanced NWP models

-   Investment in human and infrastructure[^1] resources

**Table 6-1.** Illustration of the Tropical Cyclone Community of
Practice

+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| Entity/Organization    | Contribution                                |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| NASA                   | Remote Sensing/Satellites                   |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- New Instrument Development               |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | Field Experiments/Tropical Cyclone Research |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JHT                                         |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JCSDA (GMAO)                                |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| NSF                    | Field Experiments/Tropical Cyclone Research |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- Includes Social Sciences                 |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | Sponsor                                     |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- University/Academia Research Grants      |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- NCAR                                     |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| U. S. Navy             | Field Experiments (ONR)/Tropical Cyclone    |
|                        | Research                                    |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | NWP Modeling (NRL/FNMOC)                    |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JHT                                         |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JCSDA                                       |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| U.S. Air Force         | 53^rd^ Weather Reconnaissance Squadron      |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | SFMR                                        |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | Air Force Weather Agency                    |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JCSDA                                       |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| NOAA                   | Field Experiments/Tropical Cyclone Research |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- OAR Laboratories (e.g., AOML HRD)        |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- NESDIS                                   |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- NOS                                      |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- Aircraft Operations Center               |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- JHT                                      |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | NWP Modeling (NCEP/EMC)                     |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- Operations and Research                  |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | JCSDA                                       |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| Academia               | Field Experiments/Tropical Cyclone Research |
|                        | (Numerous Universities)                     |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- Includes Social Sciences                 |
|                        |                                             |
|                        | -- Focused Education Programs               |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| International          | Tropical Cyclone Research                   |
| Organizations          |                                             |
|                        | NWP Modeling                                |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| JTWC (U.S. Navy, U.S.  | Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting    |
| Air Force)             |                                             |
|                        | Tropical Cyclone Research, Development, and |
|                        | Testing                                     |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+
| TPC/NHC and CPHC       | Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting    |
| (NOAA)                 |                                             |
|                        | Tropical Cyclone Research, Development, and |
|                        | Testing                                     |
+------------------------+---------------------------------------------+

Chapter 5 presented the tropical cyclone research priorities to aid in
meeting the future operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast
and warning centers and enhancing all aspects of the end-to-end forecast
system. The priorities were divided into three categories:
atmospheric/oceanic, seasonal forecasts (climatological), and social
sciences.

This chapter presents the JAG/TCR summary of key observations/findings
and recommendations for a roadmap of activities to improve tropical
cyclone forecasting and warnings. The ultimate goal of these activities
is to enable precise, high-confidence decisions that save lives and
reduce property damage in storm-threatened areas.

## 6.2 Summary of Key Findings

This plan highlights several key findings, which are summarized below.
For a detailed discussion of a finding, refer to the referenced section
within this plan.

### 6.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Research and Research Coordination

1.  **Research**

    a.  **Section 5.1** provides the consensus views of the Federal
        agencies on specific atmospheric- and oceanic-related tropical
        cyclone research priorities. **Section 5.2** details the climate
        research priorities regarding intraseasonal, interannual, and
        longer-term variability of tropical cyclones. **Section 5.3**
        and **appendix P** discuss social science research areas
        important for the hurricane forecast and warning system.

        1.  In addition to physical sciences research that must continue
            to meet forecast challenges, greater emphasis is needed on
            social science research **(section 1.3).**

        2.  While there is a growing recognition of the potential
            contributions of social science research, to date it remains
            underfunded and underutilized **(section 5.3.5)**.

    b.  The analyses of field experiment data sets and the sustainment
        of sufficient funding for this activity should be a priority
        **(section 3.3)**.

2.  **Coordination**

> Another element that is vital to the tropical cyclone R&D program is a
> formal, multiagency, coordination entity to conduct the following
> activities **(section 5.4)**:

-   Monitor and update a listing of the operational needs of the
    tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers

-   Monitor and update a listing of the research priorities required to
    meet the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and
    warning centers

-   Develop a succinct 5-year, multiagency research implementation plan
    that outlines specific strategies to address research priorities

-   Update the implementation plan (above bullet) as required (e.g., at
    least annually)

### 6.2.2 Operational Needs of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Centers

> 1\. Table 4-1 lists the operational needs, in the priority order given
> in the 2006 AFFO, along with related needs statements emphasized by
> the DOD participants at the 59^th^ IHC. This listing thus represents
> the best available compilation and prioritization of operational needs
> across the three U.S. centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC **(section
> 4.1)**.
>
> 2\. To continue to advance operational tropical cyclone forecasting
> capability and to meet the operational needs summarized in table 4-1,
> the Nation must be committed to supporting---through research,
> development, and transition to operations---the following key areas
> vital to the tropical cyclone forecast and warning program **(chapter
> 4, introduction)**.

-   Advanced observations

-   Advanced data assimilation technologies

-   Advanced NWP models

-   Investment in human and infrastructure resources

### 6.2.3 Data Collection/Observations

> 1\. Continuing to advance observational capabilities for tropical
> cyclone analysis and numerical weather prediction is a vital component
> of the Nation's tropical cyclone program. With numerous new
> observational platforms and sensors potentially available in the next
> several years, a coordinated approach is needed to improving tropical
> cyclone reconnaissance and surveillance systems (manned, unmanned,
> spaced-based, etc.) **(section 4.2)**.
>
> 2\. Observations of the tropical cyclone inner core are essential for
> tropical cyclone analysis and the initialization of the tropical
> cyclone vortex in operational, high-resolution, next generation NWP
> models. The initialization is critical to improving tropical cyclone
> intensity and structure forecasts. Given the current limitations in
> the satellite observations, the only inner-core wind data routinely
> available are collected by aircraft reconnaissance (**section
> 3.1.6**).
>
> 3\. The new and improved observation systems that are under
> development or being planned (sections 4.2.2 through 4.2.10) hold
> substantial promise for improving tropical cyclone analysis, NWP
> modeling, and fundamental understanding of the tropical cyclone
> atmosphere and ocean environment, the tropical cyclone inner and outer
> cores, and the mutual interaction between these components. These
> systems include in situ measurements of winds over oceans in areas
> with tropical cyclones, as well as remote-sensing methods to measure
> temperatures, humidity, winds, sea surface heights, and ocean wave
> heights and swell motion. The remote-sensing data will be provided
> from a combination of sensors located on aircraft, on polar-orbiting
> and geostationary satellites, and on land (e.g., weather surveillance
> radar). However, as discussed in s**ections 4.2.2 and 4.2.11**, there
> are significant gaps in meeting the observation requirements for
> altimetry and ocean surface vector winds that must be addressed.
> Researchers and system developers must work together to seek viable
> solutions to meet these requirements (**section 4.2.12**).

a.  Since satellite altimetry is vital to addressing the needs of the
    tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers summarized in table
    4-1, the JAG/TCR strongly endorses the acquisition of an altimeter
    instrument for NPOESS as an alternative to the cancelled NPOESS ALT
    instrument (**section 4.2.2**).

b.  The development and evaluation of new observational technologies and
    observing strategies are research priorities identified in chapter 5
    of this report. Due to the importance of ocean surface vector winds
    (OSVW) data---for use by tropical cyclone forecasters and in
    tropical cyclone NWP systems---the JAG/TCR strongly endorses the
    development and acquisition of a capability to meet the OSVW
    observation requirements. This capability is absolutely critical to
    meeting the operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast and
    warning centers summarized in table 4-1 **(section 4.2.11).**

### 6.2.4 NWP Modeling and Data Assimilation

1.  While global and regional-scale NWP models have proven highly
    successful at forecasting tropical cyclone tracks, coupled models
    with much higher resolution will be necessary to make further
    strides in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity, structure (wind
    radii), sea state and storm surge, and precipitation***. Increased
    skill in forecasting intensity and structure, sea state and storm
    surge, and precipitation is now on the horizon, much as improving
    track forecast skill was a decade ago*** **(sections 3.3, 4.4.2, and
    4.4.3).**

> 2\. The development of new techniques for assimilating high-resolution
> data sets is a fundamental activity required for advancing numerical
> prediction of hurricane intensity and structure, both of which are
> important to improved forecasts of intensity, structure, sea state,
> storm surge, and precipitation. New data sources are critical to
> initializing the forecast system in two key domains: (1) the
> large-scale environment; and (2) the vortex core. One of the most
> significant challenges to be met by NCEP and other operational NWP
> modeling centers over the next two decades is the assimilation of
> satellite data. As stated in **sections 1.5.3** and **2.4.6**, this
> challenge is being addressed through the JCSDA **(section 4.4.2)**.
>
> Improving tropical cyclone forecast guidance for TPC/NHC, CPHC, and
> JTWC forecasters regarding intensity, structure, track, sea state and
> storm surge, and precipitation is the overall goal guiding the ongoing
> development of next generation hurricane forecast systems. The work
> led by NOAA/EMC to develop the HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction
> System is described in **section 4.4.2**. The parallel, and
> complementary, effort, led by NRL-Monterey and FNMOC, to continue
> improving the COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System is described in **section
> 4.4.3**. These complementary development efforts should form the basis
> for projects supporting hurricane research and collaboration among
> experts from the university community; international researchers; the
> private sector; and other Federal agencies; and should be a high
> priority for the Nation **(section 4.4)**.

a.  Additional human and infrastructure resources (e.g., items such as
    computational power, network bandwidth, architectural/engineering
    requirements, and maintenance of applicable systems) will be
    necessary to support *development* of advanced data assimilation and
    NWP modeling systems **(section 4.4)**.

b.  The HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System is NOAA's
    next-generation, high-resolution, hurricane prediction system
    scheduled for operational implementation at NCEP in 2007. The HWRF
    system will use advanced data assimilation capabilities and
    incorporate sophisticated physics suitable for high-resolution and
    coupled air-sea-wave-land modeling processes. The Nonhydrostatic
    Mesoscale Model (NMM) will be the core model of the HWRF system. The
    system will make use of moving nests with two-way feedback in the
    atmospheric, ocean, and wave models. By coupling the HWRF system
    with advanced wave and storm surge models, the HWRF system will
    provide improved predictions of coastal inundation. Additionally,
    the land-surface component of the HWRF system will be coupled to a
    hydrology model for improved precipitation guidance for landfalling
    tropical cyclones to address the inland flooding problem **(section
    4.4.2)**.

c.  For the U. S. Navy, regional, high-resolution model development is
    based on COAMPS. NRL has developed a prototype advanced data
    assimilation system which is targeted for operational implementation
    at FNMOC in 2008. NRL will collaborate with NASA Goddard Global
    Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and NCEP/EMC during the
    future development of this data assimilation system. The future
    COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System will couple an ocean and wave model
    to the COAMPS nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core. The system
    will make use of moving nests with two-way feedback in the
    atmospheric model and will eventually include nested grids in the
    ocean models. In order to model the fluxes more accurately, the
    atmospheric and ocean wave models will interact with a sea spray
    submodel to represent the air-sea exchanges in the wave boundary
    layer **(section 4.4.3)**.

d.  The COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System development will be in parallel
    with the HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System development.
    Tropical cyclone track guidance statistics clearly indicate that
    superior track guidance is produced using a multi-model consensus.
    For the future, it is vital to have such a multi-model capability
    for intensity forecasting as well **(section 4.4.3)**.

> 3\. A parallel operational NWP research capability for testing and
> implementing changes to the operational NWP configuration is
> absolutely essential. To maximize improvements to the operational NWP
> model, it is also critically important to have a steady flow of
> relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP
> system (i.e., focused on the NWP research priorities outlined in
> chapter 5). The current infrastructure at NRL/FNMOC and NCEP/EMC is
> inadequate to conduct extensive parallel testing **(section 3.5.1)**.
>
> 4\. Funding for the transition of research to operations remains
> deficient. Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and
> transition needs will likely be competing with each other. A mechanism
> is needed to enhance development and transition of research to
> operations activities throughout the tropical cyclone operations and
> research community to further improve operational, high-resolution
> tropical cyclone NWP models, thereby maximizing benefits for the
> Nation **(section 4.5.3)**.

### 6.2.5 Forecasting and Warning

1.  As discussed in sections 4.1 and 6.2.2, table 4-1 summarizes the
    operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast and warning
    centers (TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC).

```{=html}
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```
3.  Probabilistic guidance based on advanced high-resolution regional
    models (e.g., HWRF and COAMPS ensembles) is necessary to estimate
    adequately the forecast uncertainties in critical storm attributes
    and in related impacts such as intensity, structure, track,
    precipitation, and storm surge. However, the capability to run HWRF
    and COAMPS ensembles and multi-model ensembles within operational
    forecasting time constraints depends directly on the available
    computing power **(section 4.4.2)**.

4.  An action that stemmed from the 60^th^ IHC was that the Nation's
    hurricane warning program warranted a review **(section 2.8.9)**.

### 6.2.6 Education, Outreach, and Workforce Development

1.  The agencies and organizations---public and private---involved with
    education, training, and outreach concerning the public's knowledge
    and appreciation of tropical cyclone impacts and the appropriate
    public responses to reduce those risks must never assume their task
    is done. These efforts must continue, and they must be accorded the
    priority they deserve **(section 3.6.3)**.

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5.  An area of extreme importance for improving tropical cyclone
    forecasts is advancing data assimilation and tropical cyclone NWP
    modeling systems. However, the United States is not producing enough
    new personnel qualified with the education and training required for
    NWP modeling. Resolving this deficiency will require strong backing
    (advocacy) by the American Meteorological Society and similar
    professional organizations, as well as long-term emphasis and
    commitment from the U.S. academic institutions that are the
    principal providers of degreed personnel for employment by the
    agencies that conduct the Nation's sophisticated NWP activities
    **(section 3.6.3)**.

## 6.3 Recommendations

The JAG/TCR developed recommendations that follow logically from some of
the key findings identified above. The recommendations are listed in
table 6-2.

Figure 6-1, which is associated with recommendations 1 and 2,
illustrates the focused research, collaborations, and increased
resources that are required and envisioned to lead to essential tropical
cyclone prediction improvements over the next decade. Every component
represented in the figure 6-1a is absolutely essential to *maximize the
benefits for the Nation.* The activities for tropical cyclone model
development and for transition to operations ***will be the keystone for
successful R&D.*** These R&D and operational transition activities are
the proving ground and implementation process for all of the tropical
cyclone research categories and topics. Results from a broad spectrum of
government and academic initiatives will require significant planning,
scientific and technical evaluations, coordination and testing, and
implementation activities. The envisioned tropical cyclone modeling
program will therefore need significant infrastructure with major
testing resources and substantial workforce to achieve the savings in
life and property expected from the research results. Each collaboration
entity represented in figure 6-1b

**Table 6-2. JAG/TCR Recommendations**

+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Cate | **Recommendation**                                | **S |
| * | gory** |                                                   | ect |
| N |        |                                                   | ion |
| o |        |                                                   | 6.2 |
| . |        |                                                   | Re  |
| * |        |                                                   | fer |
| * |        |                                                   | enc |
|   |        |                                                   | e** |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Tr   | a\. **Research**                                  | 6.2 |
| * | opical |                                                   | .1: |
| 1 | c      | > \(1\) First and foremost, the JAG/TCR           | 1a  |
| * | yclone | > recommends strong support for activities        |     |
| * | re     | > focused on the tropical cyclone research        | 6.2 |
|   | search | > priorities identified in chapter 5.             | .1: |
|   | and    | >                                                 | 1a  |
|   | re     | > \(2\) Results of social science research need   |     |
|   | search | > to be an integral part of the hurricane         | 6.2 |
|   | co     | > forecast and warning program. With increased    | .1: |
|   | ordina | > funding, a possible venue to pursue social      | 1b  |
|   | tion** | > science research questions is through the Joint |     |
|   |        | > Hurricane Testbed (without compromising current | 6.2 |
|   |        | > projects).                                      | .1: |
|   |        | >                                                 | 2   |
|   |        | > \(3\) Sufficient and sustained funding is       |     |
|   |        | > needed for analyses of field experiment data    |     |
|   |        | > sets.                                           |     |
|   |        |                                                   |     |
|   |        | b\. **Research Coordination.** An element that is |     |
|   |        | vital to the tropical cyclone R&D program is a    |     |
|   |        | formal, multiagency, coordination entity to       |     |
|   |        | perform the tasks described in section 6.2.1,     |     |
|   |        | paragraph #2. The JAG/TCR recommends that this    |     |
|   |        | coordination requirement and development of a     |     |
|   |        | research implementation plan be satisfied through |     |
|   |        | the OFCM infrastructure.                          |     |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Tr   | The continued development and implementation of   | 6.2 |
| * | opical | the next-generation tropical cyclone forecast     | .4: |
| 2 | c      | systems, such as the HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane  | 1,2 |
| * | yclone | Prediction System and the COAMPS Tropical Cyclone |     |
| * | NWP    | System, to improve tropical cyclone forecast      | 6.2 |
|   | mode   | guidance for TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC forecasters  | .4: |
|   | ling** | regarding intensity, structure, track, sea        | 2\  |
|   |        | state/storm surge, and precipitation should be a  | \   |
|   |        | high priority for the Nation.                     | \   |
|   |        |                                                   | 6.2 |
|   |        | a\. Development and transition of research to     | .4: |
|   |        | operations:                                       | 2a  |
|   |        |                                                   |     |
|   |        | > \(1\) The development efforts of the            | 6.2 |
|   |        | > next-generation hurricane forecast systems      | .4\ |
|   |        | > should form the basis for projects supporting   | \   |
|   |        | > hurricane research and collaboration among      | \   |
|   |        | > experts from the university community,          | \   |
|   |        | > international researchers, the private sector,  | \   |
|   |        | > and other Federal agencies.                     | \   |
|   |        | >                                                 | 6.2 |
|   |        | > \(2\) Sufficient human and infrastructurea      | .5: |
|   |        | > resources should be provided to support         | 2   |
|   |        | > development of advanced data assimilation and   |     |
|   |        | > NWP modeling systems (see figure 6-1).          |     |
|   |        | >                                                 |     |
|   |        | > \(3\) An interagency working group, under the   |     |
|   |        | > auspices of the OFCM, should be formed to       |     |
|   |        | > develop a plan to support the tropical cyclone  |     |
|   |        | > NWP program. The plan should account for: (a)   |     |
|   |        | > having sufficient human and infrastructurea     |     |
|   |        | > resources for development work and transition   |     |
|   |        | > of research to operations activities; including |     |
|   |        | > sufficient resources to support collaborative   |     |
|   |        | > ventures (see figure 6‑1); and (b) procedures   |     |
|   |        | > to enhance the flow of relevant research        |     |
|   |        | > focused on improvements to the operational NWP  |     |
|   |        | > systems.                                        |     |
|   |        |                                                   |     |
|   |        | b\. Operations: Sufficient human and              |     |
|   |        | infrastructurea resources, including the          |     |
|   |        | capability to run ensembles with the HWRF         |     |
|   |        | Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System and the  |     |
|   |        | COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System, should be         |     |
|   |        | provided to NCEP/EMC and FNMOC for their          |     |
|   |        | operational NWP tropical cyclone model programs.  |     |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Str  | Through the OFCM infrastructure, a strategic plan | 6.2 |
| * | ategic | for improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance and  | .3: |
| 3 | plan   | surveillance systems (manned, unmanned,           | 1   |
| * | for    | spaced-based, etc.) needs to be developed. The    |     |
| * | tr     | plan should consider observations                 |     |
|   | opical | [and]{.underline} observing strategies for        |     |
|   | c      | tropical cyclone forecaster needs, data           |     |
|   | yclone | assimilation for NWP models, and NWP model        |     |
|   | ob     | diagnostics and verification.                     |     |
|   | servat |                                                   |     |
|   | ions** |                                                   |     |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Tr   | NOAA (including OFCM), along with Federal         | 6.2 |
| * | opical | agencies, should continue to review and improve   | .5: |
| 4 | c      | the Nation's hurricane warning program.           | 3   |
| * | yclone |                                                   |     |
| * | w      |                                                   |     |
|   | arning |                                                   |     |
|   | p      |                                                   |     |
|   | rogram |                                                   |     |
|   | re     |                                                   |     |
|   | view** |                                                   |     |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+
| * | **Educ | a\. Education, training, and outreach efforts     | 6.2 |
| * | ation, | concerning the public's knowledge and             | .6: |
| 5 | out-   | appreciation of tropical cyclone impacts must     | 1   |
| * | reach, | continue, and they must be accorded the priority  |     |
| * | and    | they deserve.                                     | 6.2 |
|   | work   |                                                   | .6: |
|   | -force | b\. There needs to be strong backing (advocacy)   | 2   |
|   | d      | by the American Meteorological Society and        |     |
|   | evelop | similar professional organizations; and long-term |     |
|   | ment** | emphasis and commitment through our academic      |     |
|   |        | institutions to resolve the deficiency within     |     |
|   |        | this Nation of producing enough qualified         |     |
|   |        | (educated) personnel with the requisite NWP       |     |
|   |        | modeling education and training.                  |     |
+---+--------+---------------------------------------------------+-----+

a Infrastructure resources are related to items such as computational
power, network bandwidth, architectural/engineering requirements, and
maintenance of applicable systems.

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| ![](media/image1.jpeg){width="4.089583333333334in"                    |
| height="2.9923611111111112in"}                                        |
|                                                                       |
| \(a\)                                                                 |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| ![](media/image2.jpeg){width="3.859722222222222in"                    |
| height="3.0819444444444444in"}                                        |
|                                                                       |
| \(b\)                                                                 |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+

> **Figure 6-1.** Illustration of recommendations 1 and 2.

contributes to the overall improvement in modeling capability. For
example, the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) serves
a key role in expediting the assimilation of data from new
satellite-based observing systems and instruments into operational
models used to prepare forecasts and warnings.

## 6.4 Resource Estimates Associated with Recommendations

Table 6-3 summarizes new investments that are associated with the
JAG/TCR recommendations and are required to continue advancing tropical
cyclone science and operational capabilities. These investments are the
best estimates of the JAG members, based on their combined experience
with current and past budgets for tropical cyclone research and
development

-   The atmosphere/ocean research priorities are described in Section
    5.1. The investments included in this category are expected to
    provide results for transitioning into operations through the
    hurricane testbed process (e.g., JHT, JCSDA, DTC, NCEP/EMC,
    NRL/FNMOC) and later in the education and outreach category.
    Therefore, the investments are shown increasing/decreasing in the
    associated categories as results mature and feed into the transition
    and operations activities **(table 6-2, recommendation 1)**.

-   Analyses of field experiment data sets will require consistent
    funding throughout the next decade. Initially, a large effort will
    be needed to harvest and analyze the information from past, current,
    and continuing field experiments. When new observing platforms and
    sensors are available, their data sets will require analyses and
    integration with the results from heritage systems **(table 6-2,
    recommendation 1)**.

-   The ***development*** of advanced data assimilation ***and*** NWP
    modeling systems is vital to further improving the Nation's tropical
    cyclone forecasting capability. The tasks associated with the
    development of these systems will require additional resources to
    tackle the myriad of complex, manpower-intensive work that needs to
    be accomplished. Funding to significantly enhance tropical cyclone
    ***transition of research to operations*** activities and
    capabilities will be the keystone for successful R&D. As mentioned
    in section 6.3, these functions are the proving ground and
    implementation process for all of the tropical cyclone research
    categories and topics **(table 6-2, recommendation 2a)**.

-   Sufficient human and infrastructure resources need to be provided to
    the tropical cyclone ***operational*** NWP modeling centers (i.e.,
    NCEP/EMC and FNMOC), including sufficient computing power to sustain
    and enhance the tropical cyclone forecast and warning program.
    Obviously, moving to higher resolution, coupled NWP models will
    require increased computing power. As an example, NOAA's high
    performance computing experts estimate that increasing hurricane
    model resolution to 1 km would be 14,580 times more computationally
    expensive and would take over 28 years to achieve this resolution at
    current budget levels/strategies.[^2] This underscores the vital
    need to significantly enhance current funding levels of the Nation's
    operational tropical cyclone NWP models. As mentioned above, the
    human and infrastructure resource investments must account for the
    two U.S. NWP centers providing operational guidance for informed
    critical decisions (i.e., the two centers, NCEP/EMC and FNMOC, that
    plan to run advanced, coupled models and apply consensus and
    ensemble techniques for operational tropical cyclone guidance)
    **(table 6-2, recommendation 2b)**.

-   Social sciences will require strong research emphasis in the early
    funding years to help bring multidisciplinary talents to bear on
    these important aspects of research described in section 5.3. As
    this research matures, its results will feed into the testbed
    process and will require greater emphasis in the education and
    outreach category. **(table 6-2, recommendation 1)**.

**Table 6-3. Additional Resource Estimates (\$ millions) Associated with
the JAG/TCR Recommendations**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 32%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Rec. No.</strong></td>
<td><strong>Recommendation Summary</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY08</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY09</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY10</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY11</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY12</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY13</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY14</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY15</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY16</strong></td>
<td><strong>FY17</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>1a</strong></td>
<td>Atmospheric- and ocean-related research, including analyses of field
experiment data sets</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>2a</strong></td>
<td>Development of advanced data assimilation <em>and</em> NWP modeling
systems; Transition of research to operations</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>25</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td><p><em><strong>SUBTOTAL</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Research, Model Development, and Transition to
Operations</strong></em></p></td>
<td>45</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>2b</strong></td>
<td>Operational NWP computing (NCEP <em>and</em> FNMOC)</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td><p><em><strong>SUBTOTAL</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Previous Subtotal Plus Operational NWP
Computing</strong></em></p></td>
<td>75</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>1a</strong></td>
<td>Social science research</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td><em><strong>TOTAL</strong></em></td>
<td><strong>85</strong></td>
<td><strong>85</strong></td>
<td><strong>85</strong></td>
<td><strong>85</strong></td>
<td><strong>85</strong></td>
<td><strong>75</strong></td>
<td><strong>75</strong></td>
<td><strong>70</strong></td>
<td><strong>70</strong></td>
<td><strong>70</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Note: FY 07 baseline still being worked

The following general factors for research investments are relevant to
all of the resource estimates presented in table 6-3:

-   Investments in each of the research categories are not mutually
    exclusive. Research in any of the areas is expected to help leverage
    investments in other areas, to the overall benefit of tropical
    cyclone prediction accuracy, and in the application of the
    predictions by decision makers.

-   Each of the research categories includes some research that may also
    be supported by studies or experiments in other research areas or in
    transition into operational activities where the research results
    are applied.

-   Proposed budget figures are increased or decreased with time, based
    on expected increases in knowledge and understanding and subsequent
    improvements in operational applications that implement the results
    of the new knowledge and understanding.

-   The proposed research funds may be distributed among all agencies
    that conduct tropical cyclone research or research on the impacts of
    tropical cyclones on the U. S. population and resources at risk.

## 6.5 Summary

Vast improvements in tropical cyclone prediction are attainable with
focused research efforts; enhanced transition of research to operations
capabilities; strong interagency partnerships, coordination, and
planning; and [most importantly, sufficient
resources]{.underline}---both human and infrastructure. The capability
to gain skill in forecasting rapid intensity changes and to improve
predictions of hurricane intensity and structure, sea state/storm surge,
and precipitation is currently on the horizon, much as improving
hurricane track was a decade or so ago. The ultimate goal is to prevent
loss of life and injuries and to reduce the Nation's vulnerability to
these potentially devastating storms. This goal can and must be
accomplished for the good of the Nation.

[^1]: Infrastructure resources are related to items such as
    computational power, network bandwidth, architectural/engineering
    requirements, and maintenance of applicable systems.

[^2]: Personal communication from Frederick Toepfer, NOAA Science
    Advisory Board, to Mark Welshinger, OFCM.