Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

**Department of Environmental Protection**

**[State Implementation Plan Revision:]{.smallcaps}**

#### Maintenance plan and base year inventory

**[Altoona (Blair County)\
Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area]{.smallcaps}**

######## January 2007

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

717-787-9495

**www.depweb.state.pa.us**

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###### TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction and Overview 1

Section 1 A. Base Year Inventory (2002) 4

B. Attainment Year Inventory (2004) 6

Section 2 Maintenance Year Inventories (2009 and 2018)

A. Growth Projections Methodologies 8 B. Maintenance Year Inventories 10

C. Permanent and Enforceable Control Measures 11

D. Modeling Analysis 15

E. Transportation Conformity Budgets 15

Section 3 Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network 17

Section 4 Verification of Continued Attainment 17

Section 5 Contingency Measures 17

Acronyms and

Abbreviations 21

Table 1-1 2002 Emissions 4

Table 1-2 2004 Emissions 6

Table 2-1 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Emissions 9

Table 2-2 VOC and NOx Emissions Summary: 2004, 2009, 2018 10

Table 2-3 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets 16

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# INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW

Maintaining concentrations of ground-level ozone below the health-based
ambient air quality standard is important because ozone is a serious
human health threat, and also can cause damage to important food crops,
forests, and wildlife.

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse
health effects for both healthy people and those with existing
conditions including difficulty in breathing, chest pains, coughing,
nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. It can exacerbate bronchitis,
heart disease, emphysema, and asthma, and reduce lung capacity. Asthma
is a significant and growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can
aggravate asthma, causing more asthma attacks, increased use of
medication, more medical treatment and more frequent visits to hospital
emergency clinics. Because ozone pollution usually forms in hot weather,
anyone who spends time outdoors in the summer may be affected,
particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers and people
exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because
they are active outside, playing and exercising, during the summertime
when ozone levels are highest.

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detrimental pollutants known to
affect vegetation, causing more injury to trees and crops than any other
air pollutant in the United States. Ozone interferes with
photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and sunlight
to food. Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other
pollutants and harsh weather. It damages the foliage of trees and other
plants, ruining the landscapes of cities, parks and forests, and
recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone concentrations
result in reductions in wood growth in forests of the Northeast of over
10 percent. There is strong scientific evidence showing that current
levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in sensitive
species - soybean, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss from ozone for
soybeans alone in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculated to fall
between \$199 million and \$346 million. The U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national crop yield losses due to
ozone in excess of \$1 billion annually. One of the key components of
ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in
sensitive waterways, such as the Chesapeake Bay.

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by
photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and
oxides of nitrogen (NO~x~) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot,
humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so
ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through
September. The primary sources of man-made VOCs and NO~x~, the ozone
precursors, are the evaporation of fuels and solvents (gasoline and
consumer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power plants
and non-road engines), and industrial processes.

EPA has established the maximum limit for ozone pollution allowed in the
ambient air. On January 17, 1995 (60 FR 3349), EPA determined that
Altoona, Pennsylvania (Blair County) had attained the one-hour standard
by its attainment date of November 1994.EPA's National Ambient Air
Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone is 0.08 parts per million (ppm)
averaged over eight hours. In 2004, EPA designated Blair County as
nonattainment for the eight-hour ozone standard based on data from
2001-2003. Blair County was one of seventeen areas in Pennsylvania
designated as eight-hour ozone nonattainment areas. These eight-hour
ozone nonattainment areas took effect in 37 counties in Pennsylvania in
June 2004.

The redesignation request submitted concurrently with this Maintenance
Plan indicates that Blair County has attained the NAAQS and that
attainment was due to permanent and enforceable control measures. The
Maintenance Plan describes all measures that have been previously
adopted; it neither changes existing measures nor adopts additional
ones. The CAA prohibits backsliding from existing State Implementation
Plan (SIP) requirements. The maintenance plan also demonstrates that the
Commonwealth has met all its regulatory and planning requirements under
the CAA for Blair County that were due before the date of this
redesignation request.

Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA requires that a Maintenance Plan be
fully approved by the EPA before an area can be redesignated as
attainment. The Maintenance Plan is considered a SIP revision under
Section 110 of the CAA**.** The Plan must provide for maintenance of the
NAAQS for at least 10 years after redesignation. A state may submit both
the redesignation request and the maintenance plan at the same time and
federal rulemaking on both may proceed on a parallel track.

EPA requires the following to ensure maintenance of the NAAQS:

-   The state must continue to operate an appropriate air quality
    monitoring network in order to verify the area's attainment status;
    (addressed in Section 1 of this Plan)

-   The state must develop an emissions inventory to identify the level
    of emissions sufficient to attain the NAAQS. This "attainment year
    inventory" was developed for 2004, the mid-year of the three-year
    monitoring period for which the NAAQS was met; (addressed in Section
    2 of this Plan and the redesignation request)

-   The state must show that the future emissions of a pollutant or its
    precursors will not exceed the level of the attainment inventory
    over at least 10 years following redesignation, taking economic
    growth into account. The Department has developed emission
    inventories for 2018 and for 2009, an interim year between the
    attainment year and the maintenance year; (addressed in Section 3 of
    this Plan)

-   The state must show that it has the legal authority to implement and
    enforce all measures necessary to attain and maintain the NAAQS, and
    indicate how maintenance plan progress will be tracked (addressed in
    Section 3 of this Plan and the redesignation request); and

-   The state must identify measures that would be available to promptly
    correct any NAAQS violation (addressed in Section 4 of this Plan).

This document describes how the Commonwealth will meet those criteria.

The Maintenance Plan shows that the eight-hour ozone NAAQS will be
maintained for at least 10 years after redesignation. In accordance with
EPA guidance, the Maintenance Plan shows that emission levels over the
10 years following redesignation will remain below the emissions level
in 2004, while allowing for growth in population and vehicle miles
traveled. The following state and federal programs will ensure the
continuing decline of VOC and NOx emissions:

-   Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

-   Interstate Pollution Transport Reduction

-   Portable Fuel Containers

-   Consumer Products

-   Architectural and Industrial Maintenance (AIM) coatings

-   Federal Motor Vehicle Control Programs (light-duty and heavy-duty)

-   Vehicle emission inspection/maintenance program

-   Cleaner gasoline (federal program)

-   Cleaner highway diesel (federal program)

-   Cleaner nonroad diesel (federal program)

-   Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program

##### Pennsylvania Heavy-Duty Diesel Emissions Control Program

-   Federal programs for nonroad engines

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (the Department)
has provided assurances that it will continue to operate the ambient air
quality monitoring network in order to track maintenance of the standard
and to evaluate emissions inventories periodically compared to the
projections provided in the plan. The Department has also provided a
list of potential contingency measures that it would consider to correct
any violation of the NAAQS that occurs after redesignation of the area.

Eight years following redesignation, the Department will submit a
revised plan that ensures attainment through 2028.

Requirements for a public comment process are set forth in Section
110(a)(2) of the CAA and 40 CFR Section 51.102(d). A public hearing on
the Maintenance Plan, 2002 base year inventory and the request to
redesignate Blair County to attainment for the eight-hour ozone standard
was held on Tuesday, January 23, 2007. The public comment period ended
on January 26, 2007. No comments were received.

**SECTION 1**

#  BASE YEAR (2002) AND ATTAINMENT YEAR (2004) INVENTORIES 

Information on the manmade sources of ozone precursors, VOC and NOx, is
compiled for:

-   "Stationary sources" (or "point" sources), which refer to those
    sources for which the Department collects individual
    emissions-related information. Generally they represent major
    stationary sources but may be smaller.

-   "Stationary area sources", which are
    industrial/commercial/residential sources too small or too numerous
    to be handled individually, such as commercial and residential open
    burning, architectural and industrial maintenance coatings
    application and clean-up, consumer product use, and vehicle
    refueling at service stations. Where there is overlap between
    stationary point sources and stationary area sources, the area
    source values are adjusted to remove any double counting.

-   "Highway vehicles" which include passenger cars and light-duty
    trucks, other trucks, buses and motorcycles.

-   "Nonroad sources" which covers a diverse collection of engines
    including outdoor power equipment, recreational vehicles, farm and
    construction machinery, lawn and garden equipment, industrial
    equipment, recreational marine, commercial marine vessels,
    locomotives, ships, aircraft and many other applications.

##### A. BASE YEAR (2002) EMISSION INVENTORY

An emissions inventory for the base year, 2002, was developed for ozone
precursors in accordance with EPA guidance. This year represents the
emissions present when Blair County did not meet the ozone standard.

**Table 1-1**

#### 2002 EMISSIONS tons per summer day

[]{.mark}

  ------------------------------ ---------------------- -----------------
                                 **VOC**                **NOx**

  Stationary Point Sources[^1]   1.2                    1.6

  Stationary Area Sources        5.8                    0.9

  Highway Vehicles               6.3                    10.0

  Nonroad Engines/Vehicles       2.0                    5.5

  **TOTAL**                      **15.3**               **18.0**
  ------------------------------ ---------------------- -----------------

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

**Stationary Point Sources.** The Department requires owners and
operators of larger facilities to submit annual production figures and
emission calculations each year. Throughput data are multiplied by
emission factors from Factor Information Retrieval (FIRE) Data System
and EPA's publication series AP-42 and are based on Source
Classification Code (SCC). Each process has at least one SCC assigned to
it. If the owners and operators of facilities provide more accurate
emission data based upon other factors, these emission estimates
supersede those calculated using SCC codes.

**Stationary Area Sources.** Area source emissions are generally
estimated by multiplying an emission factor by some known indicator or
collective activity for each area source category at the county level.
Pennsylvania estimates emissions from area sources using emission
factors and SCC codes in a method similar to that used for Stationary
Point Sources. Emission factors may also be derived from research and
guidance documents if those documents are more accurate than FIRE and
AP-42 factors. Throughput estimates are derived from county-level
activity data, by apportioning national or statewide activity data to
counties, from census numbers, and from county employee numbers. County
employee numbers are based upon North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) codes to establish that those numbers are specific to the
industry covered. More specific information on the procedure used for
each industry type is contained in Pennsylvania 2002 Area Source
Criteria Air Pollutant Emission Estimation Methods, (E.H. Pechan &
Associates, Inc., February 2004) which is contained in the Technical
Appendix.

**Highway Vehicle Sources.** The Department employs an emissions
estimation methodology that uses the current EPA-approved highway
vehicle emission model, MOBILE 6.2, to estimate highway vehicle
emissions. Blair County highway vehicle emissions in 2004 were estimated
using MOBILE6.2 and PENNDOT estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by
vehicle type and roadway type. More information on highway methods is
available in the Technical Appendices (Appendix C). The estimate used
information specific to Blair County where appropriate.

**Nonroad Sources.** The 2002 emissions for the majority of nonroad
emission source categories were estimated using the EPA NONROAD 2005
model. The NONROAD model estimates emissions for diesel, gasoline,
liquefied petroleum gasoline, and compressed natural gas-fueled nonroad
equipment types and includes growth factors. The NONROAD model does not
estimate emissions from aircraft or locomotives. For 2002 locomotive
emissions, the Department projected emissions from a 1999 survey using
national fuel consumption information and EPA emission and conversion
factors. There are no significant air carrier operations (aircraft that
can seat over 60 passengers) in Blair County. The Altoona Airport in
Blair County supports some air taxi operations that account for a very
small amount of emissions. For 2002 aircraft emissions, the Department
estimated emissions using small airport operation statistics from
www.airnav.com, and emission factors and operational characteristics in
the EPA-approved model, Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS).

##### B. ATTAINMENT YEAR (2004) INVENTORY

An inventory of 2004 VOC and NOx emissions for Blair County identifies
ozone precursor emissions during the period when Blair County
demonstrated that it did attain the ozone standard. VOC emissions
decreased by 8.5 percent from 2002 to 2004 and NOx emissions decreased
by 5 percent from 2002 to 2004 due to permanent and enforceable control
measures.

###### Table 1-2

**2004 EMISSIONS\
tons per summer day**

  ------------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
                            **VOC**                **NOX**

  Stationary Point          1.2                    2.3
  Sources[^2]                                      

  Stationary Area Sources   5.6                    0.9

  Highway Vehicles          5.4                    8.8

  Nonroad Engines/Vehicles  1.8                    5.1

  **TOTAL**                 **14.0**               **17.1**
  ------------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------

The Technical Appendices contain more detailed information for each
sector. The following provides an overview of the emission estimation
techniques for stationary, area, highway vehicle and nonroad emission
sources.

**Stationary Point Sources.** Emissions have been compiled from the
submissions described in the previous section made by the facilities for
calendar year 2004.

**Stationary Area Sources.** Area sources emissions were projected from
the 2002 inventory. The factors used for the temporal allocation of
projections to 2004 from the 2002 baseline inventory were provided by
the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA), which is
performing air quality modeling for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
states. The factors were in the form of Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel
Emissions (SMOKE) v2.2 input files[^3]. A temporal allocation was then
performed to generate tons per summer day[^4]. Area source temporal
cross-reference codes were selected, based on Source Category Codes
(SCC), from files named ATREF (Area Temporal Reference) and PTREF (Point
Temporal Reference), respectively. Once a cross-reference code was
obtained, the actual temporal profile weights were obtained from files
named ATPRO (Area Temporal Profile) and PTPRO (Point Temporal Profile).

Once the necessary weighting factors were obtained, the following
formula was used to convert annual emissions to daily emissions:

$$\text{Emissions}_{\text{Daily}} = \frac{\left( \frac{\text{TW}_{\text{July}}}{\text{TW}_{\text{Total}}} \right) \times \text{Emissions}_{\text{Annual}}}{\text{31}}$$

Where:

> TW~­July~ is the Temporal weight for July from the appropriate file
> named TPRO
>
> TW~Total~ is the total of temporal weights for the entire year.

A table of growth factors for 2009, 2012, and 2018 was provided by
MARAMA. For each state, county and SCC, this table includes state growth
factors derived from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual
Energy Outlook, 2005; and/or factors extracted from the Economic Growth
Analysis System (EGAS). Where more than one factor was available, the
first choice was the EIA factor followed by the EGAS factor.

$$\text{Emissions}_{\text{Pr}\text{ojected}} = \text{Emissions}_{\text{Baseline}} \times \text{Growth}\ \text{Factor}_{\text{year}}$$

Data for 2004 area sources is a linear interpolation of the 2002
Baseline and the 2009 Projected inventories using the following formula:

$$\text{Emissions}_{\text{2004}} = \text{Emissions}_{\text{2002}} + \left( \frac{\text{Emissions}_{\text{2009}} - \text{Emissions}_{\text{2002}}}{7} \right) \times 2$$

MARAMA also supplied tables of control factors, rule effectiveness
factors, and rule penetrations factors for any control measures
applicable to these sources.

For the area sources, these factors were available by SCC and pollutant.
There may be more than one generic control factor that applies to a
given SCC and pollutant. In cases where there was more than one
applicable factor, the following formula may have been applied
recursively to generate reductions that are a composite of those
factors.

$$\text{Emissions}_{\text{Controlled}} = \text{Emissions} - \left( \left( \text{CF} \times \text{RE} \times \text{RP} \right) \times \text{Emissions} \right)$$

Where

CF is the control factor

RE is the rule effectiveness factor

RP is the rule penetration factor

**Highway Vehicle Sources.** The Department employs an emissions
estimation methodology that uses the current EPA-approved highway
vehicle emission model, MOBILE 6.2, to estimate highway vehicle
emissions. In addition, Pennsylvania uses a MOBILE pre- and
post-processing software package called PPSUITE to process and compile
Pennsylvania's robust highway network and detailed highway vehicle data.
The Pennsylvania methodology is consistent with the January 2002
guidance published by EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality
(OTAQ) entitled "Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6 for Emissions
Inventory Preparation." Pennsylvania Department of Transportation
(PENNDOT) supplied estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by vehicle
type and roadway type. Blair County highway vehicle emissions in 2004
were estimated using MOBILE6.2 and PENNDOT estimates of vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) by vehicle type and roadway type. More information on
highway methods is available in the Technical Appendices (Appendix C).
The estimate used information specific to Blair County where
appropriate.

**Nonroad Sources**. The 2004 emissions for the majority of nonroad
emission source categories were estimated using the EPA NONROAD 2005
model. The NONROAD model estimates emissions for diesel, gasoline,
liquefied petroleum gasoline, and compressed natural gas-fueled nonroad
equipment types and includes growth factors. The NONROAD model does not
estimate emissions from aircraft or locomotives.

For 2004 locomotive emissions, the Department projected emissions from a
1999 survey using national fuel consumption information and EPA emission
and conversion factors.

There are no significant air carrier operations (aircraft that can seat
over 60 passengers) in Blair County. The Altoona Airport in Blair County
supports some air taxi operations that account for a very small amount
of emissions. For 2002 aircraft emissions, the Department estimated
emissions using small airport operation statistics from www.airnav.com,
and emission factors and operational characteristics in the EPA-approved
model, Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS).

**SECTION 2**

#  DEMONSTRATION AND TRACKING OF MAINTENANCE: MAINTENANCE YEAR INVENTORIES (2009 and 2018) AND OTHER INFORMATION

EPA guidance indicates that a state can demonstrate that future
emissions over the 10-year period of analysis will not lead to any
exceedances of the standard by showing that emissions during the 10-year
maintenance period are no more than those for the attainment year.

Emission estimates for 2009 and 2018 have been developed for this
purpose. The Maintenance Plan year is 2018. The year 2009 is an
intermediate year that is being used for regional ozone modeling
studies, and serves as a checkpoint for maintenance plan evaluation.
NO~x~ and VOC emission levels are expected to continue to decline from
attainment year levels despite growth in population, economic output,
and VMT. The Maintenance Plan end year and the interim year were
selected in consultation with EPA Region 3 staff.

## **A. GROWTH PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES: 2009 and 2018**

This section describes the data, methods, and assumptions utilized in
developing estimates of emissions changes between 2004 and the two
projection years, 2009 and 2018.

# 1. Stationary Point Sources

The methodology for projecting emissions to 2009 and 2018 is the same as
the methodology described in Section 1 for stationary point sources.
Projections were made from 2002 (not 2004) emissions. Additional
information about these projected methodologies can also be found in
Appendix E.

# 2. Stationary Area Sources

The methodology for projecting emissions to 2009 and 2018 is the same as
the methodology described in Section 1 for stationary area sources for
the attainment year. Projections were made using 2002 as the base year.
Additional information about these projected methodologies can also be
found in Appendix E.

# 3. Highway Vehicle Sources

Blair County highway vehicle emissions were estimated using MOBILE6.2
and PENNDOT estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by vehicle type
and roadway type. More information on highway methods is available in
the Technical Appendices (Appendix C). The estimate used information
specific to Blair County where appropriate. The emissions do not include
the conformity safety margin discussed below and in Subsection E.

###### Table 2-1

**VMT and Emissions**

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  **YEAR**          ***VMT***         ***VOC\           ***NOX\
                                      (tpsd)***         (tpsd)***

  **2009**          3,385,742         3.8               6.1

  **2018**          3,582,920         2.2               2.8
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

**4. Nonroad Sources**

Emissions for 2009 and 2018 were calculated with the same methodology as
described in Section 1 for nonroad sources.

**B. 2009 and 2018 MAINTENANCE YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORIES**

Table 2-2 presents a comparison of VOC and NO~x~ emissions by major
source category for 2004, 2009, and 2018 and shows that emissions
throughout the maintenance period continue to decline after the
attainment year, 2004.

A small portion of the difference between attainment and maintenance
emissions has been set aside as a transportation conformity safety
margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehicles. The
highway vehicle emissions reflect inclusion of that safety margin.

Detailed information on emissions in each source category is contained
in the Technical Appendices to the Plan.

> **Table 2-2**
>
> **VOC and NO~x~ Emissions Summary: 2004, 2009 and 2018**

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
                            **VOC Emissions                 
                            (tons per                       
                            summer day)**                   

  **MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY** **2004**        **2009**        **2018**

  Stationary Point Sources  1.2             1.2             1.5

  Stationary Area Sources   5.6             5.8             5.3

  Highway Vehicles          5.4             4.2             2.8

  Nonroad Engines/Vehicles  1.8             1.4             1.3

  **TOTAL**                 **14.0**        **12.6**        **10.9**
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
                            **NOx Emissions                 
                            (tons per                       
                            summer day)**                   

  **MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY** **2004**        **2009**        **2018**

  Stationary Point Sources  2.3             1.7             1.8

  Stationary Area Sources   0.9             0.9             0.9

  Highway Vehicles          8.8             6.5             3.3

  Nonroad Engines/Vehicles  5.1             4.2             3.1

  **TOTAL**                 **17.1**        **13.3**        **9.1**
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

Totals may vary due to rounding. See Appendices.

##### C. PERMANENT AND ENFORCEABLE CONTROL MEASURES FOR MAINTENANCE

This section describes the federal and state measures that will be in
place to ensure emissions during the maintenance period are equal to or
less than the emissions in the attainment year.

**1. Stationary Point Sources**

**Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) \--** The federal CAIR regulations
(70 FR 25162, May 12, 2005) will transition from the NOx SIP Call
electric generating unit regulations in 2009 and continue to ensure that
large electric generation facilities upwind of the area will maintain
background emissions at or below 2002 levels while any new facilities
locating within the area will be required to obtain both offsets and
allowances that will ensure ambient equivalence with regard to ozone
production potential. Pennsylvania and other nearby states are required
to adopt a regulation implementing the requirements of the CAIR or an
equivalent program. On April 28, 2006, EPA promulgated Federal
Implementation Plans (FIPs) to reduce the interstate transport of NOx
and sulfur dioxides that contribute significantly to nonattainment and
maintenance of the 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS. The electric generating
units (EGUs) in the CAIR-covered States will be regulated under the FIPs
until revisions to SIPs for the implementation of the CAIR requirements
are approved by EPA. See 71 FR 25328 (April, 28, 2006). Blair County
does not have any sources that are directly regulated by CAIR, and
therefore is not showing an emissions reduction from this regulation.
However, the quality of air transported from upwind sources into the
county would be improved.

##### Interstate Pollution Transport Reduction \-- In response to the Federal NOx SIP call rule, Pennsylvania and other covered states adopted NOx control regulations for large industrial boilers and internal combustion engines, electric generating units, and cement plants. The regulation covering industrial boilers and electric generators required emission reductions to commence May 1, 2003, while the regulation covering large internal combustion engines and cement plants required emission reductions to commence May 1, 2005. While there are no affected units located in Blair County, upwind NOx reductions from affected sources in Pennsylvania and other states assisted in bringing the area into attainment.

**2. Stationary Area Sources**

**Portable Fuel Containers.** The Department adopted a portable fuel
container regulation, 25 *Pa. Code* Chapter 130, Subchapter A, to
address VOC loss resulting from permeation through portable gasoline
containers, evaporative loss through container openings, and from
spillage during the filling of small tanks on machines such as lawn
mowers, chain saws, jet skis and the like. This regulation requires that
portable fuel containers manufactured after January 1, 2003 for sale in
Pennsylvania meet certain requirements. (A "sell-through" provision
allowed the sale during 2003 of containers manufactured before January
1, 2003.) The Department predicted, as part of the one-hour ozone SIP
demonstration for the Southeast Pennsylvania area, that the portable
fuel container regulation would be fully phased in over a 10-year
period, i.e. approximately 10 percent of the existing containers would
be replaced each year. Emission reduction estimates for the program
reflect this phased-in replacement of the containers. The regulation was
submitted to EPA as a SIP revision on March 26, 2003 and approved on
December 8, 2004 (69 FR 70893).

**Consumer Products.** This regulation applies statewide to any person
who sells, supplies, offers for sale, or manufactures certain consumer
products on or after January 1, 2005, for use in the Commonwealth. The
Consumer Products regulation includes general provisions, VOC standards,
provisions for exemptions, provisions for innovative products,
administrative requirements, reporting requirements, provisions for
variances, test methods, and provisions for alternative control plans
for consumer products. The program is contained in 25 *Pa. Code* Chapter
130, Subchapter B. It was submitted to EPA as a SIP revision on March
26, 2003 and approved on December 8, 2004 (69 FR 70895).

**Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings**. The Pennsylvania
AIM Coatings regulation applies statewide to any person who supplies,
sells, offers for sale, or manufactures, blends or repackages an AIM
coating for use within the Commonwealth, as well as a person who applies
or solicits the application of an AIM coating within the Commonwealth.
The regulation does not apply to the following: (1) Any AIM coating that
is sold or manufactured for use outside the Commonwealth or for shipment
to other manufacturers for reformulation or repackaging; (2) any aerosol
coating product; or (3) any AIM coating that is sold in a container with
a volume of one liter (1.057 quarts) or less. The AIM Coatings
regulation sets specific VOC content limits, in grams per liter, for AIM
coatings categories with a compliance date of January 1, 2005.
Manufacturers ensure compliance with the limits by reformulating
coatings and substituting coatings with compliant coatings that are
already in the market. The regulation contains VOC content requirements
for a wide variety of field-applied coatings, including graphic arts
coatings, lacquers, primers and stains. The regulation also contains
provisions for a variance from the VOC content limits, which can be
issued only after public hearing and with conditions for achieving
timely compliance. In addition, the regulation contains administrative
requirements for labeling and reporting. There are a number of test
methods that would be used to demonstrate compliance with the AIM
Coatings regulation. Some of these test methods include those
promulgated by EPA and South Coast Air Quality Management District of
California. The methods used to test coatings must be the most current
approved method at the time testing is performed.

The AIM coating program requirements are specified in 25 *Pa. Code*
Chapter 130, Subchapter C. The final-form regulation was submitted to
EPA as a SIP revision on December 3, 2003, with a supplement submitted
on October 19, 2004. EPA approved the provisions as an element of the
SIP on November 23, 2004 (69 FR 69080).

**3. Highway Vehicle Sources**

Even with increases in VMT that occur from 2004 through 2018, highway
vehicle emissions of both VOC and NOx will continue to decrease. As more
vehicles subject to cleaner new car standards replace older vehicles
subject to less stringent new vehicle standards, the fleet as a whole
emits fewer emissions, compensating for the increase in vehicle miles
traveled. These decreases can be attributed to the programs described
below.

**Federal Motor Vehicle Control Programs (FMVCP) for passenger vehicles
and light-duty trucks and cleaner gasoline.** In 2009 and 2018, vehicles
manufactured to meet federal standards through Tier 0, 1 and 2 will
still be in Pennsylvania's fleet.

Tier 1 tailpipe standards established by the CAA Amendments of 1990
include NOx and VOC limits for light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and
light-duty gasoline trucks (LDGTs). These standards began to be phased
in starting in 1994. Evaporative VOC emissions were also reduced in
gasoline-powered cars starting with model year 1998.

In 1998, under the authority of section 177 of the CAA, the Department
adopted the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. (28 Pa. B. 5873, Dec.
5, 1998.) The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program incorporates certain
California Low Emission Vehicle emission standards emission standards
for passenger cars and light-duty trucks by reference. As required under
Section 177 of the CAA, these provisions are identical to the low
emission standards adopted by California, except that the regulation
does not incorporate by reference the California zero emissions vehicle
(ZEV) or emissions control warranty systems statement provisions.

In the same rulemaking, the Department adopted the NLEV program as a
compliance alternative to the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. The
NLEV program became effective in the Ozone Transport Region in 1999.
Pennsylvania's New Motor Vehicle Control Program regulations (25 *Pa.
Code* Subchapter 126.401-126.441) allowed automobile manufacturers to
comply with NLEV instead of the California Low Emission Vehicle (CA LEV)
program through model year (MY) 2005. These regulations affected
vehicles 6,000 pounds and less and were the regulations in effect for
new motor vehicles in the baseline year, 2002.

In 1999, EPA promulgated regulations more stringent than NLEV (Tier 2),
starting with the 2004 model year. However, in order to participate in
NLEV, Pennsylvania was required to adopt language that extended its
"commitment" to NLEV until MY 2006. In practical terms, the NLEV program
was replaced for MY 2004 and later by the more stringent Federal "Tier
2" vehicle emissions regulations, 65 F.R. 6698 (Feb. 10, 2000), and
vehicle manufacturers operating under the NLEV program became subject to
the Tier 2 requirements. Therefore, this plan assumes that the federal
Tier 2 program governs new vehicles sold in Pennsylvania in the
attainment year, 2004. The incorporated CA LEV requirements are
applicable in this Commonwealth for MY 2006 and each model year
thereafter.

The same EPA regulation required the reduction of sulfur in gasoline
beginning in 2004. In the first year of the program, sulfur levels are
capped at 300 parts per million (ppm) and annual refinery corporate
averages must be no more than 120 ppm. This analysis uses the default
assumptions provided in MOBILE6 for all gasoline parameters for
conventional fuel sold in Blair County.

**Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program for passenger vehicles and
light-duty trucks.** The New Motor Vehicle Control Program (which
includes the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program) incorporated the
California Low Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEV II) by reference allowed
automakers to comply with the NLEV program as an alternative to this
Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Under the existing program,
compliance with the CA LEV II requirements was required as of MY 2006.
The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program was recently amended to postpone
compliance from MY 2006 to MY 2008. 36 *Pa B*. 7424 (December 9, 2006).
Emissions for all maintenance plan milestone years were estimated based
on compliance with the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program according to
the methodology described in section 7.4.1 of "Technical Guidance on the
Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emissions Inventory Preparation" published by EPA's
Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) in January 2002. This
methodology is further explained in Appendix C. In order to provide
conservative estimates of emissions, the Department is assuming in its
MOBILE modeling that the federal Tier 2 program applies to subject
vehicles sold in Pennsylvania from MY 2004 through MY 2007 and the
Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program applies to subject vehicles sold in
model year 2008 and beyond.

**Heavy-Duty Diesel Control Programs.** EPA promulgated more stringent
national regulations for heavy-duty engines and vehicles (over 14,000
pounds) starting with model year 2004. In addition, a consent decree
with the major heavy-duty engine manufacturers required, among other
terms, that diesel engines made by these companies comply with these
2004 standards two model years early, in model year 2002. Pennsylvania
includes these programs as provided in the MOBILE model.

In 2002, the Department adopted the Heavy-Duty Diesel Emissions Control
Program for model years starting after May 2004. The program
incorporates California standards by reference and requires model year
2005 and subsequent new heavy-duty diesel highway engines to be those
certified by California. California standards are more stringent than
federal standards for the two model years between expiration of the
consent decree discussed above and the implementation of more stringent
federal standards affecting model year 2007 and beyond. However, EPA's
MOBILE model already assumes that the engines would comply with consent
decree standards, even without an enforcement mechanism. The Department
has used MOBILE defaults to calculate emissions from model year 2005 and
2006 highway engines.

EPA adopted new emission standards for heavy-duty engines and vehicles
for model year 2007 and subsequent. For diesel engines, the standards
will be phased in from 2007 to 2010 for NOx and VOCs. For gasoline
engines, the standards will be phased in during model years 2008 and
2009. Federal and California standards are virtually identical for model
year 2007 and beyond; therefore, the emission estimates use assumptions
of the federal rule for these years.

Because the new engine standards are adversely affected by sulfur in
fuel, EPA also will be requiring most highway diesel fuel to contain no
more than 15 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur during the fall of 2006.
There is a temporary compliance option allowing refiners to continue to
produce up to 20 percent of their highway diesel fuel at 500 ppm fuel.
Pennsylvania uses MOBILE defaults to estimate the effects of the
phase-in provision.

**Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance Program.** In early 2004,
Pennsylvania expanded its Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M)
Program into Blair County. The program applies to gasoline-powered
vehicles 9,000 pounds and under, model years 1975 and newer. The program
consists of an annual visual inspection of pollution control devices to
ensure they are present, connected and the proper type for the vehicle
and a gas cap pressure test. These regulations can be found in 67 *Pa.
Code* Chapter 177. Pennsylvania submitted the expanded emissions program
as a SIP revision on December 1, 2003. EPA approved the SIP revision on
October 6, 2005.

**Nonroad Sources.** EPA has adopted a series of regulations affecting
new diesel-powered ("compression ignition") and gasoline-powered ("spark
ignition") nonroad engines of various sizes (horsepower) and
applications. Information on these federal rules, including their
implementation dates, can be found at www.epa.gov/nonroad. The
Department used the assumptions built into the nonroad model
(NONROAD2005) to estimate emissions for all milestone years.

No new national or international regulations are expected to be
applicable to aircraft during the maintenance period. While EPA has
published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking indicating their
consideration of more stringent standards for locomotives and large
commercial marine diesel engines, the agency has not finalized any new
standards.

EPA will also require diesel fuel used in most nonroad applications to
contain less sulfur. The sulfur will prevent damage to the more advanced
emission control systems needed to meet the engine standards; it will
also reduce fine particulate emissions from diesel engines. In 2007,
fuel sulfur levels will be limited to 500 parts per million (ppm) for
nonroad applications other than ocean-going marine vessels. In 2010,
fuel sulfur levels will be reduced to the same sulfur concentration as
in highway fuel, 15 ppm; this requirement applies in 2012 to locomotive
and marine diesel fuel.

**D. MODELING ANALYSIS**

Modeling results for the EPA's Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) were
examined to determine if the model results support redesignating Blair
County to attainment. EPA outlined model results in its technical
support document (TSD) for CAIR (TSD for Final CAIR, Air Quality
Modeling, March 2005). Results for Blair County indicate modeled ozone
concentrations will be below the eight-hour ozone standard. According to
Appendix E of the TSD, Blair County's modeled ozone concentrations are
approximately 73 ppb for the 2010 Base run and 68 ppb for the 2015 CAIR
run. These results also support redesignating Blair County to attainment
and demonstrates that the county will continue to attain the eight-hour
ozone standard.

## 

## **E. MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS FOR TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY**

Section 176 of the CAA provides a mechanism by which federally funded or
approved highway and transit plans, programs, and projects are
determined not to produce new air quality violations, worsen existing
violations, or delay timely attainment of national air quality
standards. EPA regulations issued to implement transportation conformity
provide that motor vehicle emission "budgets" establish caps of these
emissions that cannot be exceeded by the predicted transportation system
emissions in the future. Transportation agencies in Pennsylvania are
responsible for making timely transportation conformity determinations.
The responsible agency in Blair County is the Altoona Area
Transportation Study, the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization
(MPO) under federal transportation planning requirements.

Pennsylvania proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in
order to ensure that transportation emissions do not impede clean air
goals in the next decade and beyond. The information in Table 2-3, once
EPA approves it for purposes of conformity, will establish
transportation conformity budgets for Blair County.

####### 

**Table 2-3**

**Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets in Kilograms/Summer Day**

+------------+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| **Calendar | **Pollutant**                 |                        |
| Year**     |                               |                        |
+------------+-------------------------------+------------------------+
|            | **VOCs**                      | **NO~x~**              |
+------------+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| 2009       | 3418 kilograms/summer day     | 5527 kilograms/summer  |
| Predicted  |                               | day                    |
|            | (3.8 tons/summer day)         |                        |
| Safety     |                               | (6.1 tons/summer day)  |
| Margin     | 347 kilograms/summer day\     |                        |
|            | (0.4 tons/summer day)\        | 382 kilograms/summer   |
| **2009     | \                             | day\                   |
| Budget**   | **3765 kilograms/summer day\  | (0.4 tons/summer day)  |
|            | **(4.2 tons/summer day)       |                        |
|            |                               | **5909**               |
|            |                               | **kilograms/summer     |
|            |                               | day\                   |
|            |                               | **(6.5 tons/summer     |
|            |                               | day)                   |
+------------+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| 2018       | 1947 kilograms/summer day     | 2558 kilograms/summer  |
| Predicted  |                               | day                    |
|            | (2.2 tons/summer day)         |                        |
| Safety     |                               | (2.8 tons/summer day)  |
| Margin     | 511 kilograms/summer day\     |                        |
|            | (0.6 tons/summer day)         | 490 kilograms/summer   |
| **2018     |                               | day\                   |
| Budget**   | **2458 kilograms/summer       | (0.5 tons/summer day)  |
|            | day**\                        |                        |
|            | (2.8 tons/summer day)         | **3048                 |
|            |                               | kilograms/summer       |
|            |                               | day**\                 |
|            |                               | 3.3 tons/summer day)   |
+------------+-------------------------------+------------------------+

#  

# SECTION 3

# AMBIENT AIR QUALITY MONITORING NETWORK

The Department will continue to operate the air monitoring network in
accordance with 40 CFR Part 58 to verify the attainment status of the
area, with no reductions in the number of sites from those in the
existing network unless pre-approved by EPA.

# The Commonwealth has concurrently submitted a request for redesignation of the Blair County nonattainment area that contains analysis of ambient air quality data and related factors.

# 

# SECTION 4

# VERIFICATION OF CONTINUED ATTAINMENT

The Department will track the attainment status of the eight-hour ozone
NAAQS in the area by reviewing air quality and emissions data during the
maintenance period. The Department will perform an annual evaluation of
two key factors, VMT data and emissions reported from stationary
sources, and compare them to the assumptions about these factors used in
this plan. The Department will also evaluate the periodic (every three
years) emission inventories prepared under EPA's Consolidated Emission
Reporting Regulation (40 CRF 51 Subpart A) to see if they exceed the
attainment year inventory (2004) by more than 10 percent. Based on these
evaluations, the Department will consider whether any further emission
control measures should be implemented.

# 

# SECTION 5

**CONTINGENCY MEASURES**

Implementation of contingency measures would be in accordance with the
following paragraphs of this section 5 of this maintenance plan. The
commitment to operate the air quality monitoring network in accordance
with 40 CFR Part 58 is found in Section 3 of this Maintenance Plan.

Contingency measures would be considered if for two consecutive years
the fourth highest eight-hour ozone concentrations at the Blair County
monitor are above 84 ppb*.* If this trigger point occurs, the Department
will evaluate whether additional local emission control measures should
be implemented in order to prevent a violation of the air quality
standard. The Department will analyze the conditions leading to the
excessive ozone levels and evaluate what measures might be most
effective in correcting the excessive ozone levels. The Department will
also analyze the potential emissions effect of federal, state and local
measures that have been adopted but not yet implemented at the time the
excessive ozone levels occurred. The Department will then begin the
process of implementing any selected measures so that in the event of a
violation, the measures can be implemented as expeditiously as
practicable after the violation.

If a violation occurs, the Department will adopt additional necessary
emission reduction measures as expeditiously as practicable in
accordance with the implementation schedule in this section and the
Pennsylvania Air Pollution Control Act in order to return the area to
attainment with the standard.

Additional emission reduction measures to be considered for adoption
would be based on criteria including:

-   air quality analysis indicating nature of violation \[cause,
    location, source\];

-   emission reduction potential, including extent to which emission
    generating sources occur in the nonattainment area;

-   timeliness of implementation in terms of the potential to return the
    area to attainment as expeditiously as practicable; and

-   costs, equity and cost-effectiveness.

Additional measures to be considered for adoption in Blair County will
include, but not be limited to:

**Non-regulatory measures:**

-   Voluntary diesel engine "chip reflash" (installation software to
    correct the defeat device option on certain heavy-duty diesel
    engines).

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-   Diesel retrofit (including replacement, repowering or alternative
    fuel use) for public or private local onroad or offroad fleets.

-   Idling reduction technology for Class 2 yard locomotives.

-   Idling reduction technologies or strategies for truck stops,
    warehouses and other freight-handling facilities.

-   Accelerated turnover of lawn and garden equipment, especially
    commercial equipment, including promotion of electric equipment.

-   Additional promotion of alternative fuel (e.g. biodiesel) for home
    heating and agricultural use.

**The regulatory measures** below were considered potential
cost-effective and timely control strategies by the regional planning
organizations (Ozone Transport Commission, Mid-Atlantic Regional Air
Management Association and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union)
during their 2005-2006 ozone attainment deliberations.

-   Additional controls on consumer products

-   Additional controls on portable fuel containers

[]{.mark}

In the event that additional emission reductions are necessary,
Pennsylvania will propose and adopt additional emission reduction
measures to attain and maintain the ozone NAAQS in accordance with the
requirements of the Clean Air Act, the Air Pollution Control Act, other
Pennsylvania statutory requirements, and the Department's Policy for
Approval and Distribution of Regulations.

If the measure is non-regulatory, implementation would take place as
expeditiously as practicable with the following milestones:

> *Within 2 months:* Identify stakeholders for potential non-regulatory
> measures for further development.
>
> *Within 3 months:* If funding is necessary, identify potential sources
> of funding and the timeframe under which funds would be available. In
> addition to non-Title V Clean Air funds, the following programs may be
> able to provide a funding stream:

-   for transportation projects, federal Congestion Mitigation and Air
    Quality funds from the Federal Highway Administration, as allocated
    to the Blair County MPO. Discussions will be held with PENNDOT and
    the Blair County MPO to ensure that emission credits could be
    allocated for attainment purposes, rather than for transportation
    conformity.

-   for projects which also have an energy efficiency co-benefit, the
    Pennsylvania Energy Harvest program.

-   for projects which would be undertaken by small business and are
    pollution prevention projects, the Small Business Advantage Grant
    and Small Business Pollution Prevention Loan programs;

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-   for projects which involve alternative fuels for vehicles/refueling
    operations, the Alternative Fuel Incentive Grant program.

-   for projects involving diesel emissions, federal Energy Policy Act
    diesel reduction funds allocated to Pennsylvania or for which
    Pennsylvania or project sponsors may apply under a competitive
    process.

> *Within 6 months:* Work with the Blair County Planning Commission to
> identify land use planning strategies and projects with quantifiable
> and timely emission benefits. Work with the Pennsylvania Department of
> Community and Economic Development and other state agencies to assist
> these measures.
>
> *Within 9 months:* If state loans or grants are involved, enter into
> agreements with implementing organization (business, local government,
> transit companies, non-profit entities, etc.). Quantify projected
> emission benefits.
>
> *Within 12 months:* Submit revised SIP to EPA.
>
> *Within 12-24 months:* Implement strategies and projects.

If the measure is regulatory, the rulemaking process will proceed
according to the following anticipated timetable. Timeframes are
measured from the event triggering the need for additional control
measures.

> *Within 1 month of triggering event:* Submit request to begin
> regulatory development process.
>
> *Within 3 months of triggering event:* Review by Air Quality Technical
> Advisory Committee (AQTAC), Citizens Advisory Council and other
> advisory committees[^5] as appropriate.
>
> *Within 6 months of triggering event:* Environmental Quality Board
> (EQB) meeting/action.
>
> *Within 8 months of triggering event:* Publish in the Pennsylvania
> Bulletin for comment as proposed rulemaking.
>
> *Within 10 months of triggering event:* Public hearing takes place and
> comment period on proposed rule closes.
>
> *Within 11 months of triggering event*: House and Senate Standing
> Committees and Independent Regulatory Review Commission (IRRC) comment
> on proposed rule.
>
> *Within 13 months of triggering event:* AQTAC, Citizens Advisory
> Council and other committee review responses to comments and draft
> final rulemaking.
>
> *Within 16 months of triggering event:* EQB meeting/action.
>
> *Within 17 months of triggering event*: Independent Regulatory Review
> Commission action on final rulemaking.
>
> *Within 18 months of triggering event:* Attorney General's
> review/action.
>
> *Within 19 months of triggering event:* Publish in the Pennsylvania
> Bulletin as final rulemaking and submit to EPA as a SIP revision. The
> regulation would become effective upon publication in the Pennsylvania
> Bulletin.

## **ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS**

AIM Architectural and Industrial Maintenance

AQTAC Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee

CAA Clean Air Act

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule

CA LEV California Low Emission Vehicle (program)

EDMS Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System

EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System

EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FIRE Factor Information Retrieval

FMVCP Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program

ICI Industrial, Commercial and Institutional

IC Internal Combustion

I/M Inspection and Maintenance

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard

NLEV National Low Emission Vehicle (program)

NO~x~ Oxides of Nitrogen

NSR New Source Review

PENNDOT Pennsylvania Department of Transportation

ppb parts per billion

ppm parts per million

RACT Reasonably Available Control Technology

SCC Source Classification Code

SIP State Implementation Plan

SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions

TSD Technical Support Document

tpsd tons per summer day

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

[^1]: This does not include banked emissions described in the Technical
    Appendix.

[^2]: This does not include banked emissions described in the Technical
    Appendix.

[^3]: For additional information on the SMOKE file formats, please refer
    to the SMOKE v2.2 Users Manual, available from the Center for
    Environmental Modeling for Policy Development (CEMPD) at
    http://cf.unc.edu/cep/empd/products/smoke/index.cfm#Documentation.

[^4]: Consistent with its prior SIP submissions, the PADEP did not
    attempt to calculate weekday vs. weekend emissions for area sources.
    Reliable allocation factors for such a calculation were not readily
    available, and it would be unlikely to result in significant
    differences for SIP purposes.

[^5]: Other committees could include the Small Business Compliance
    Advisory Committee, and Agriculture Advisory Committee.