**Offshore Environmental Studies Program**

**Fiscal Year FY 2004 -- 2006**

**Studies Development Plan**

**Headquarters**

**U.S. Department of the Interior**

**Minerals Management Service 2003**

**TABLE OF CONTENTS**

[**SECTION 1.0 Programmatic Overview**
1](#section-1.0-programmatic-overview)

[**1.1** Introduction 1](#introduction)

[**1.2** Headquarters Research Components
2](#headquarters-research-components)

> [**1.2.1** General Program Support and Quality Assurance
> 2](#general-program-support-and-quality-assurance)
>
> [**1.2.2** Information Management and Dissemination
> 2](#information-management-and-dissemination)
>
> [**1.2.3** Physical Sciences and Oil Spill Risk Analysis
> 3](#physical-sciences-and-oil-spill-risk-analysis)
>
> [**1.2.4** Social Sciences 3](#social-sciences)

[**SECTION 2.0 Proposed Studies** 5](#section-2.0-proposed-studies)

[**2.1** Introduction 5](#introduction-1)

[**2.2** Profiles of Studies Proposed for the FY 2004 NSL
5](#profiles-of-studies-proposed-for-the-fy-2004-nsl)

> [**Table 1.** MMS Headquarters Proposed Studies and Ranking for FY
> 2004
> 5](#table-1.-mms-headquarters-proposed-studies-and-ranking-for-fy-2004)

[MMS Peer-Reviewed Publications from the ESP: A Comprehensive, Annotated
Bibliography
7](#title-mms-peer-reviewed-publications-from-the-esp-a-comprehensive-annotated-bibliography)

[7th International Marine Environmental Modeling Seminar
9](#title-7th-international-marine-environmental-modeling-seminar)

[Re-examination of Variance, Assumptions, and Statistical Approach to
Volume-based Occurrence Rates for Accidental Oil Spills on the U.S.
Outer Continental Shelf
11](#title-re-examination-of-variance-assumptions-and-statistical-approach-to-volume-based-occurrence-rates-for-accidental-oil-spills-on-the-u.s.-outer-continental-shelf)

[Extended Gulf of Mexico Ocean Current Field for Oil Spill Risk Analysis
13](#title-extended-gulf-of-mexico-ocean-current-field-for-oil-spill-risk-analysis)

[Lagrangian Data Assimilation in Ocean Model Calculations
15](#title-lagrangian-data-assimilation-in-ocean-model-calculations)

[**2.3** Profiles of Studies Proposed for the FY 2005 NSL and Beyond
17](#profiles-of-studies-proposed-for-the-fy-2005-nsl-and-beyond)

> [**Table 2.** MMS Headquarters Proposed Studies for FY 2005 and Beyond
> 17](#table-2.-mms-headquarters-proposed-studies-for-fy-2005-and-beyond)

[Analytical Methods/Protocol to Effectively Test for Potential PAH's in
Marine Mammals and Fish Tissues: An Information Synthesis
19](#title-analytical-methodsprotocol-to-effectively-test-for-potential-pahs-in-marine-mammals-and-fish-tissues-an-information-synthesis)

[**SECTION 3.0 Topical Areas for FY 2006**
21](#section-3.0-topical-areas-for-fy-2006)

[**3.1** Physical Oceanography 21](#physical-oceanography)

[**3.2** Information Management 21](#information-management)

[**3.3** Social Sciences 21](#social-sciences-1)

[**3.4** Hydrates 22](#hydrates)

# SECTION 1.0 Programmatic Overview {#section-1.0-programmatic-overview .Style1}

# 1.1 Introduction {#introduction .Style2}

The ESP was initiated in 1973 as a means to gather and synthesize
environmental and social and economic science information to support
decision-making concerning the offshore oil and gas program. The Outer
Continental Shelf Lands Act of 1953, (OCSLA), as amended in 1978,
established policy for the management of the OCS natural gas and oil
leasing program and for the protection of marine and coastal
environments. Section 20 of the Act authorizes the ESP and establishes
three general goals for the program:

-   to establish the information needed for assessment and management of
    environmental impacts on the human, marine, and coastal environments
    of the OCS and the potentially affected coastal areas;

-   to predict impacts on the marine biota which may result from
    chronic, low level pollution or large spills associated with OCS
    production, from drilling fluids and cuttings discharges, pipeline
    emplacement, or onshore facilities; and

-   to monitor human, marine, and coastal environments to provide time
    series and data trend information for identification of significant
    changes in the quality and productivity of these environments, and
    to identify the causes of these changes.

Early ESP efforts summarized and synthesized available information and
early field studies were designed to provide a statistically valid
baseline of the geological, chemical, and physical characteristics of
proposed leasing areas. Over the years many changes have occurred.
Leasing and development activities are now focused predominantly in the
Gulf of Mexico, with production in southern California, and, most
recently, in Alaska's Beaufort Sea. Studies conducted in these areas are
focused on addressing critical OCS information needs as well as
characterizing environmental processes. In addition, the ESP has
expanded its purview to include environmental issues associated with
marine mineral recovery (i.e., sand and gravel) and naturally occurring
gas hydrates.

This ESP Studies Development Plan (SDP) provides descriptions of studies
that will address MMS national information needs during the next two
years. In contrast to the SDPs prepared by the MMS Regional Offices that
focus on specific geographic areas, the Headquarters Office SDP
emphasizes issues and studies of national scope with program-wide
application. The studies fall under the broad areas of general program
support (quality assurance, information and data management and
dissemination), and physical oceanographic and support studies directed
towards oil spill risk assessment (OSRA). The studies in this SDP have
been nominated for inclusion by Environmental Studies Branch staff,
other MMS Offshore divisions and branches, even Regional Offices who
believed that a specific study was more "national" in scope. This year,
the plan addresses proposed studies for FY 2004 and beyond.

# 1.2 Headquarters Research Components {#headquarters-research-components .Style2}

# 1.2.1 General Program Support and Quality Assurance {#general-program-support-and-quality-assurance .Style3}

> Annual support for the activities of the Scientific Committee of the
> OCS Advisory Board will continue to be provided as a Headquarters
> Office function. The Scientific Committee has been established to
> advise the Director of MMS on the feasibility, appropriateness, and
> scientific value of the ESP. The Scientific Committee reviews and
> contributes to studies developed by the ESP to address issues and
> topics of critical concern to the MMS.
>
> In recognition of the benefits of peer-review and to enhance
> dissemination of environmental information as widely as possible, the
> MMS routinely provides support to scientific conferences and symposia.
> In some cases, symposia may have a dedicated session on OCS research;
> in other cases, OCS sponsored research may be presented within the
> context of a wider scientific discipline.
>
> Another area of program support sponsored by the Headquarters office
> has been the archiving of biological specimens. The ESP supports such
> a program with the Smithsonian Institution, U.S. National Museum as
> the curator through the Biological Resources Division (BRD) within the
> U.S. Geological Survey. This project will be recommended by MMS as a
> priority for BRD to continue funding in FY 2004 and beyond.

# 1.2.2 Information Management and Dissemination {#information-management-and-dissemination .Style3}

> Rapid information dissemination is a key information management
> activity. The Environmental Studies Program Information System (ESPIS)
> has been designed to allow for easy access to ESP products. Full-text
> files, abstracts, and relational databases are searchable by the
> system. This allows users to easily search, identify, and select
> sections of text, or bibliographic citations that relate directly to
> the desired subject. This system makes the ESP contracted research
> information directly available to the public and is available through
> the Internet.
>
> Information standards for reports have been developed so that the text
> can be directly loaded into ESPIS. Currently, Adobe Portable Document
> Format (pdf) files are being generated to allow ESPIS to contain
> graphic information (e.g. graphs, figures, and tables) in addition to
> the existing text of ESP reports. Ultimately, a GIS interface will be
> developed to link geographic coverages of ESP research to the ESPIS
> databases. This will enable users to visualize where environmental
> information exists in relation to OCS activities.
>
> Information concerning ongoing research supported through the ESP is
> accessible through an intuitive based web design
> (<http://www.mms.gov/eppd/studies/index.htm>). The design is arranged
> by MMS OCS Region and discipline (e.g., biology, socioeconomics,
> physical oceanography, modeling, etc) allowing users to concentrate on
> a single discipline or jump to another with a minimum of links.
> Information available for each study includes a complete description,
> status report, cost, and expected date of its final report. Affiliated
> web sites and presentation abstracts and papers are provided where
> applicable.

# 1.2.3 Physical Sciences and Oil Spill Risk Analysis {#physical-sciences-and-oil-spill-risk-analysis .Style3}

> The Headquarters Office physical oceanographic studies focus on
> understanding and verifying general physical processes and features
> common to the OCS. The mechanisms of these processes and features in
> the ocean and atmosphere control the transport of materials and cause
> the mixing and redistribution of pollutants. The knowledge and
> information obtained from physical oceanography and meteorology
> programs are used in assessing: 1) the transport of spilled oil, 2)
> the dispersion of discharge fluids and produced water, 3) the movement
> and spread of air pollutants, and 4) the effects on the migration of
> marine mammals, the distribution of fishes, and other biological
> resources.
>
> The MMS is committed to the continuous improvement of its Oil Spill
> Risk Analysis (OSRA) estimations, and is using the results of field
> and modeling studies of ocean circulation to fulfill that commitment.
> The fate of spilled oil is another area of focus. Laboratory analysis
> is conducted on the various types of oil as well as computer modeling
> of the behavior of an oil spill in the ocean environment. Furthermore,
> the ESB staff actively seek cooperative efforts with other agencies
> and private industries. These efforts leverage MMS\'s resources, while
> providing additional needed information.

# 1.2.4 Social Sciences {#social-sciences .Style3}

> The MMS's major legal mandates are the
> [OCSLAA](../../compliance/nepa/policy/index.htm) and the National
> Environmental Policy Act ([NEPA](../../compliance/nepa/index.htm)). An
> objective of both laws is to provide the information needed for
> balanced decisionmaking. Both direct MMS to study the human
> environment, and both include guidance on social and economic
> information needs. The ESP's social science research provides
> information essential to understanding the consequences of OCS-related
> activities on the populations, economies, and social and cultural
> systems in areas where the activities occur, it supports MMS's
> planning and management processes, and provides information for
> effective interaction with the public about such effects.

# SECTION 2.0 Proposed Studies {#section-2.0-proposed-studies .Style1}

# 2.1 Introduction {#introduction-1 .Style2}

The following sections focus on the proposed studies for FY 2004, FY
2005, and beyond.

# 2.2 Profiles of Studies Proposed for the FY 2004 NSL {#profiles-of-studies-proposed-for-the-fy-2004-nsl .Style2}

# **Table 1.** MMS Headquarters Proposed Studies and Ranking for FY 2004 {#table-1.-mms-headquarters-proposed-studies-and-ranking-for-fy-2004 .Style4}

+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| * | *  | **Title**                                             | ** |
| * | *T |                                                       | Ra |
| P | op |                                                       | nk |
| a | ic |                                                       | ** |
| g | ** |                                                       |    |
| e |    |                                                       | ** |
| * | ** |                                                       | \* |
| * | \* |                                                       | \* |
|   | \* |                                                       | \* |
| * | ** |                                                       | ** |
| * |    |                                                       |    |
| \ |    |                                                       |    |
| # |    |                                                       |    |
| * |    |                                                       |    |
| * |    |                                                       |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| 7 | OT | MMS Peer-Reviewed Publications from the ESP: A        | 1  |
|   |    | Comprehensive, Annotated Bibliography                 |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| 9 | OT | 7th International Marine Environmental Modeling       | 2  |
|   |    | Seminar                                               |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| 1 | PO | Re-examination of Variance, Assumptions, and          | 3  |
| 1 |    | Statistical Approach to Volume-based Occurrence Rates |    |
|   |    | for Accidental Oil Spills on the U.S. Outer           |    |
|   |    | Continental Shelf                                     |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| 1 | PO | Extended GOM Ocean Current Field for Oil Spill Risk   | 4  |
| 3 |    | Analysis                                              |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| 1 | PO | Lagrangian Data Assimilation in Ocean Model           | 5  |
| 5 |    | Calculations                                          |    |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+
| \ |    |                                                       |    |
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+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------+----+

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ANNUAL STUDY PLAN FY 2004-2005**

**Region:** Headquarters

**Planning Area(s):** Nationwide

**Type**: Competitive

####### **Title:** MMS Peer-Reviewed Publications from the ESP: A Comprehensive, Annotated Bibliography {#title-mms-peer-reviewed-publications-from-the-esp-a-comprehensive-annotated-bibliography .Profile}

**Cost Range** (in thousands): \$80 - \$120 **Period of Performance:**
2004-2006

**Description**

[Background]{.underline} The last comprehensive effort to compile all
peer-reviewed publications based on MMS research supported through the
ESP was in 1993. This effort contained only the bibliographic
information for the articles and produced a database which can link to
similar databases containing contractual and final deliverable
information. A similar effort, started under the MMS Universities
Research Initiative (URI), generated bibliographic information relating
to offshore oil and gas development in the form of a quarterly,
hard-copy annotated report. This database compilation continued for the
5-year duration of the URI. A continuation of this compilation is being
done under the MMS-Louisiana State University Coastal Marine Inistitute.
Information in this latest effort is formatted and searchable on the
Internet; however, it does not indicate which articles are based on MMS
research.

[Objectives]{.underline} The intent of this project is to identify and
make available an annotated bibliography of peer-reviewed publications
based on MMS ESP research. Identifying and annotating peer-reviewed
publications based on MMS ESP studies will help government and industry
focus quickly on information collected specifically for the OCS oil and
gas, and marine minerals activities. Additionally, one of the Department
of the Interior goals is to have all science independently evaluated.
Compiling MMS peer-reviewed publications will aid in achieving this goal
and help maintain the credibility of MMS science.

[Methods]{.underline} The bibliography will be compiled by manually and
electronically scanning a variety of literature sources as well as
contacting principal investigators for all MMS ESP contracts (focusing
on post 1992 contracts). Citations and annotations will be broken down
by the following subjects: General Science, Biology, Protected Species,
Fates and Effects, Chemistry, Physical Oceanography, Air Quality,
Geology, and Socioeconomics. An annotated bibliography will be made
available in electronic format that will complement the ESP reports that
are currently available via the Internet . Fields will be included in
the compilation for title, author, and publisher.

[Products]{.underline} Hard copies of annotated bibliography; ongoing
digital database.

[Importance to MMS]{.underline} The bibliography would serve as an
important information source for those assessing potential impacts from
OCS oil and gas impacts, as a management tool to determine how MMS
research is being used, and would also help establish and maintain the
credibility of MMS environmental research.

**Date Information Required:** This annotated bibliography would be used
on a daily basis by the MMS, and its external customers, as soon as it
is available. The last time that this information was pulled together
was in 1993. Since then MMS has encouraged and funded the peer-reviewed
journal publication of the vast majority of its ESP research. These
articles exist in widely scattered areas and in an ever-increasing
number of publications. This bibliography represents a major effort at
synthesizing the information and annotating it in a readily available
context.

**Revised Date:** 03/03

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: Studies Development Plan FY 2004-2006**

**Region:** Headquarters

**Planning Area (s):** Generic -- Applicable to All Planning Areas

**Type:** Cooperative Agreement / Interagency

####### **Title:** 7th International Marine Environmental Modeling Seminar {#title-7th-international-marine-environmental-modeling-seminar .Profile}

**Cost Range** (in thousands): \$120 - \$180 **Period of Performance:**
FY 2004

**Description:**

[Background]{.underline} Since 1997, the MMS has co-sponsored the annual
International Marine Environmental Modeling Seminar (IMEMS), which
brings together individuals from governments, private corporations, and
academia involved in research on, or applications of, models to
understand, analyze, or predict human impacts on the marine environment.
First priority has generally been given to papers discussing
interdisciplinary or coupled physical-chemical-biological applications,
since these tend to represent expansions beyond the traditional
limitations of a single discipline. Presentations on mitigation
procedures, data visualization methods, and linkages to geographical
information systems (GIS) have also been encouraged. The seminar
participants make formal oral presentations or poster presentations of
their recent work. Informal discussions take place between the
presentations and at social gatherings for the participants. Written
proceedings of the presentations are produced prior to each seminar, and
contributions passing a peer-review cycle are published in the
peer-reviewed literature after the seminars.

Some previous seminars had a dominant theme, while others were more
open-ended, receiving papers on a large variety of topics. The
organizers sought the most current developments and applications as well
as recent model verification or model comparisons, and past IMEMS have
been reasonably successful at attracting such contributions. On the
other hand it should be noted that a great many other researchers and
applications-oriented technical individuals with much to contribute have
not attended these meetings.

The seminars gave the MMS the opportunity to present its modeling
efforts for critical, peer review and to learn about related, new
developments occurring in other countries. Such exposure allows MMS to
improve the environmental impact modeling it routinely performs.

[Objectives]{.underline} There are two objectives of this study, one
primary and one secondary. The primary objective of this study is to
conduct the IMEMS in 2004 with significantly increased participation
over that of previous years and focused on North American coastal
waters. The proposed title of the focused seminar is: "Environmental
Modeling in North American Coastal Waters for Environmental Impact
Assessment, Resource Management, and Mitigation". The secondary
objective will be the production of a book of selected papers from
recent IMEMS and possibly peer-reviewed journals summarizing the
state-of-the-art in modeling of the marine environment.

[Methods]{.underline} To achieve the objective, substantially expanded
MMS funding over that of previous years (\$6,000 annually) would be
required and the seminar would be conducted in Washington, DC.
Co-sponsors would be aggressively sought from the oil and gas industry
and environmental consulting firms who have contributed in the past and
from those who have not. An aggressive advertising campaign would be
launched targeting academic, commercial, and governmental institutions
with programs involved in environmental modeling development or
applications.

The venue of Washington DC offers two benefits. It is easily accessible
from Canada and Mexico, where quality research has been done and where
environmental issues overlap those of the United States. We share common
waters and need to work together for a healthy, viable marine
environment in those waters. In addition, U. S. governmental agencies
can more easily participate.

[Importance to MMS]{.underline} Environmental impact assessments are an
important part of the offshore oil and gas leasing program. An important
component to the assessments is environmental impact modeling such as
oil spill contact modeling and determining the toxicological effects of
oil spill contact. The IMEMS allow MMS's methods to be critically
reviewed by knowledgeable colleagues and offers an opportunity for MMS
personnel to learn about new methods and models.

**Date Information Required:** FY2004 This study will improve MMS's
environmental impact assessments by expanding the Agency's knowledge and
updating its environmental modeling.

**Revised Date:** 03/03

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: Studies Development Plan FY 2004-2006**

**Region:** Alaska

**Planning Areas:** Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

**Type:** Competitive or Contract Modification

####### **Title:** Re-examination of Variance, Assumptions, and Statistical Approach to Volume-based Occurrence Rates for Accidental Oil Spills on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf {#title-re-examination-of-variance-assumptions-and-statistical-approach-to-volume-based-occurrence-rates-for-accidental-oil-spills-on-the-u.s.-outer-continental-shelf .Profile}

**Cost Range** (in thousands): \$160-\$240 **Period of Performance:** FY
2004-2005

**Description:**

*[Background]{.underline}* The Oil-Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model is
undergoing statistical review by multiple stakeholders in the Alaska
OCS. The OSRA model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in the
early 1980's. This model, with minor modifications, is still used today
by the Minerals Management Service. The U.S. Outer Continental Shelf
(OCS) historical platform and pipeline crude oil spills are mostly from
the Gulf of Mexico OCS. The original analyses found that large
accidental oil spills, those of at least one thousand barrels, could be
treated as a Poisson distribution. That distribution is generally
applicable to rare, random events. Subsequent years have demonstrated a
decrease in spill rates for platforms and tankers, but not pipelines,
demonstrating that spill probabilities are not a pure Poisson process.
This approach has worked well for MMS, and rate calculations have been
updated every few years in the peer-reviewed literature.

Recent criticisms, however, have suggested that the cumulative spill
record now available does not follow the Poisson distribution and have
stated that MMS must do a better analysis and reporting of sources of
variance and magnitude of confidence intervals for spillage estimates. A
full study of sources of variance and confidence intervals in oil spill
occurrence estimators has not been attempted by MMS in the past because
of limited data availability and the small size of the data set. The MMS
has worked hard to improve spill data sets along with associated
infrastructure data sets. Original statistical findings and assumptions
merit reanalysis with the improved and longer data string. The MMS can
re-evaluate assumptions of Poisson distribution for large spills,
reconsider the suitability of pipeline length or blended spill
estimators, and develop confidence intervals for spill occurrence
estimators used by MMS.

*[Objectives]{.underline}* The objective is to reanalyze OCS spill data
with purpose of improving the historical MMS spill risk statistical
approach:

1.  Re-evaluate whether the Poisson distribution is still the best
    choice for modeling the frequency of occurrence of large OCS spills.

2.  Re-examine whether volume-based estimators are still the most
    precise statistical approach to estimating oil spill occurrence
    rates.

3.  Examine and document all major sources of variance in estimating
    spill occurrence rates.

4.  Statistically evaluate the effect of occurrence of a major spill on
    subsequent likelihood of a major spill (memory effect).

*[Methods]{.underline}*

1.  Develop understanding of: a) historical statistical approaches; b)
    MMS rationales for estimating oil spill occurrence rates; and c)
    possible sources of variance through a kickoff meeting with MMS (in
    Herndon, VA) and further discussions with MMS staff.

2.  Statistically re-evaluate use of Poisson distribution, volume-based
    spill estimators, and spill sizes used in statistical analysis,
    taking into account the historical MMS approach and MMS's updated
    database.

3.  Statistically investigate and calculate measures of variability,
    such as confidence intervals, standard deviation, and/or standard
    errors, for identified sources of variance. Sources of variability
    are numerous and include scenario assumptions (oil volume to be
    found and produced, pipeline miles, production rate, etc.),
    estimates of in-place pipeline miles, etc., geologically-modeled
    risked and unrisked resource estimates, reserve estimates, estimates
    of spill size, completeness of the spill data set, etc. The
    contractor will have multiple meetings with MMS experts who monitor
    or derive this information for MMS in Anchorage AK, New Orleans LA,
    and Herndon, VA to help develop a better understanding of the
    sources of statistical error and issues. The contractor will develop
    and populate database structures necessary to capture sources of
    statistical error not currently being addressed by MMS.

4.  Examine occurrences of spills subsequent to major spills. Determine
    the validity of the assumption that spills are statistically
    independent (randomly occurring) events on local, regional, and
    worldwide bases. Develop a statistical model of overall spillage on
    rate and rates specific to large spills that take into account the
    results of this analysis.

5.  Develop user-friendly models and/or algorithms to allow MMS staff to
    recalculate the contractor's measures of variability as additional
    information or data become available.

6.  Provide professional support to MMS in regard to statistical issues
    of occurrence rates and estimator(s) related to this study and its
    results.

*[Importance to MMS]{.underline}* The Oil-Spill-Risk Analysis (OSRA) is
a cornerstone to regional EIS's, environmental assessments, and
oil-spill-contingency planning. Oil-spill issues constitute a
significant portion of public comments submitted on sale or development
EIS's in the Alaska OCS Region.

**Date Information Required:** Information from this study will be used
OCS-wide in the future oil and gas lease sale assessments, future
developmental EIS's, and review of oil-spill-contingency plans for OCS
and coastal facilities.

**Revised Date:** February 2003

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: Studies Development Plan FY 2004-2006**

**Region:** Headquarters

**Planning Area:** Gulf of Mexico Planning Area

**Type:** Competitive

####### **Title:** Extended Gulf of Mexico Ocean Current Field for Oil Spill Risk Analysis {#title-extended-gulf-of-mexico-ocean-current-field-for-oil-spill-risk-analysis .Profile}

**Cost Range** (in thousands)**:** \$375 - \$450 **Period of
Performance:** FY 2004 - 2006

**Description:**

[Background]{.underline} MMS's oil spill risk assessment modeling has
benefited greatly by improved modeling of the surface ocean currents of
the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), producing more realistic ocean currents than
MMS has used in the recent past. Using data assimilation techniques
(assimilating sea surface height), Princeton University investigators
developed a high-resolution, GOM, surface current field, that compares
fairly well with the trajectories of satellite-tracked, surface
drifters. However, even this improved field leaves much observed
variability unaccounted. The integrated effect of which can result in
simulated transport of oil spills diverging considerably from what would
occur in real spill events, thereby reducing the realism of MMS's oil
spill risk analysis. Moreover, since the Princeton University modeling
effort relied on sea surface height assimilation, their surface current
field is limited to only 9-years duration, the time over which sea
surface height observations existed. This comparatively short record
limits the statistical significance of the oil spill trajectory
simulations performed in MMS's risk assessment modeling using that ocean
current field. In particular, only a few of the dominant Loop Current
Eddies (LCEs) will develop during the 9-year record.

Another recent, pertinent development in the modeling of the GOM ocean
currents are the process studies performed by Accurate Environmental
Forecasting, Inc. (AEF) under contract to MMS. AEF investigated the
effects of bottom topography on the propagation of mesoscale eddies in
the GOM, which often dominate the surface circulation. Using conceptual
models and fully realistic general circulation models, they were able to
reproduce observed eddy movement in the northwestern GOM and in the
northern GOM near and inside the Desoto Canyon. In additional, related
studies, they determined that correctly modeling topographic effects
produces more realistic eddy motion, thus reducing the need for sea
surface height assimilation.

A model combining the data assimilation of the Princeton modeling effort
and the topographic interaction physics of AEF could produce much better
ocean currents for MMS's oil spill risk analyses than either approach
alone. In addition, if proper inclusion of the topographic interaction
physics of AEF would permit accurate reproduction of the observed LCE
variability in the GOM without data assimilation, reasonably realistic
ocean current fields could be produced over a much longer period of time
than the 10 years over which we now have usable sea level height
information (1993 through 2002). Credible wind fields over the Gulf of
Mexico covering multiple past decades exist and could be used to drive a
circulation model of the GOM incorporating these topographic
interactions. The reanalysis of historic meteorological data performed
by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) covers the
previous 50 years. Using their reanalysis, a 50-year time sequences of
wind and ocean currents could be produced for MMS's statistical
estimates of oil spill contact risk, giving enhanced statistical
significance over estimates derived from shorter wind and ocean current
fields. Sea level height assimilation could be used additionally, over
the 10 years during which that information exists.

[Objectives]{.underline} There are two objectives of this study. The
first is to develop an ability to reproduce the observed mesoscale eddy
variability in the GOM using a state-of-the-art numerical model
**without** resorting to data assimilation. The key evaluation criteria
for this objective would be the comparison of averaged sea surface
height produced by the model without data assimilation and observed sea
surface height from satellite altimeters. The improved representation of
the eddy variability will likely improve the model performance **with**
data assimilation, since less correction will be necessary. Then, the
model would be developed to include the assimilation of observed sea
surface height and operated with that additional data assimilation
capability. Ocean drifter data and moored current meter data would be
used as the ground-truth against which the data assimilating model
results would be compared. The second objective is to produce a
three-dimensional ocean current field for oil spill risk analyses, over
as long a period of time as possible, with the model employing both an
assimilation of sea level height and the best possible physical modeling
of the interaction between mesoscale eddies and the bottom topography of
the GOM.

[Methods]{.underline} The contractor awarded this study will select the
state-of-the-art model and will justify the selection in their proposal.
The selected model must be capable of both a reputable data assimilation
method to assimilate sea level height fields and a credible modeling of
the interaction between mesoscale eddies and the bottom topography of
the GOM continental shelf slope and rise. The contractor will provide
evidence that the selected model is capable of both of these.
Observations of ocean currents in the GOM from moored current meters and
surface drifters obtained from MMS-funded studies will be provided to
the contractor, who will use these observations to compare against their
model-generated currents. The contractor may use any additional data for
model initialization and verification as they see fit and must obtain
the sea level height fields and wind fields themselves as well as any
other needed data such as other meteorological data and river input.
With these data, the model will be run with and without data
assimilation or topographic interaction considerations to achieve the
objectives stated above. The contractor will make scientifically
credible model-observations comparisons.

[Importance to MMS]{.underline} Environmental impact assessments are an
important part of the offshore oil and gas leasing program. An important
component to the assessments is the statistical estimation of the risk
of oil spill contact. The correct modeling of the surface ocean currents
is essential for credible estimates of oil spill contact risk. This
study has the potential to give MMS an ocean current field sufficiently
improved over our existing fields to justify its cost.

**Date Information Required:** The results of this study will be
important to improve the Oil Spill Risk Analysis in the Gulf of Mexico.
The ongoing sale schedule and development of oil and gas will require
future improvement of the OSRA model.

**Revised Date:** 03/03

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: Studies Development Plan FY 2004-2006**

**Region:** Headquarters

**Planning Area(s):** National

**Type:** Competitive

####### **Title:** Lagrangian Data Assimilation in Ocean Model Calculations {#title-lagrangian-data-assimilation-in-ocean-model-calculations .Profile}

**Cost Range** (in thousands): \$ 200 - \$300 **Period of Performance:**
(2004-2005)

**Description:**

[Background]{.underline} The Minerals Management Service (MMS) maintains
the Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model for the analysis of possible
oil spill impact from offshore oil and gas operations. The OSRA model
produces estimates of oil spill transport and contact to biological and
economic resources using historical records of oil spills, winds, and
ocean currents. The circulation of the Gulf of Mexico has been studied
through ocean model simulations. These studies delivered current fields
simulated by the models, using wind forcing and river input for the
period 1986-1999. The MMS conducted field programs, particularly in the
Northern Gulf of Mexico from 1993 through 1999, particularly in the
LATEX area, the DeSoto Canyon area, and on the West Florida shelf.

[Objectives]{.underline} The objective of this study is to perform
additional simulations of the circulation of the Gulf of Mexico using an
ocean model, which has significant skill in simulating the near-surface
currents, using data assimilation techniques employing both satellite
altimeter and Lagrangian observations (drifting buoy data). The
improvement of the simulations with the addition of the Lagrangian data
assimilation will be estimated. The results would be used to estimate
the potential improvements to the OSRA model, in cases where Lagrangian
data are available.

[Method]{.underline} This study would involve the use of a numerical
ocean model simulating the current fields of the Gulf of Mexico, using
data assimilation techniques employing both satellite altimeter and
Lagrangian observations (drifting buoy data). The wind forcing will be
derived from the products of an atmospheric model. Skill assessment
comparisons against field observations (i.e. current meters and drifting
buoy velocities) will be performed.

[Products]{.underline} The products of this investigation will be a set
of near-surface current fields that will be utilized in the Oil Spill
Risk Analysis, and a report that details the properties of the
additional runs.

[Importance to MMS]{.underline} The results of the study will be used by
MMS to improve the OSRA estimates of oil spill trajectories. The
existing ocean models have been shown to have skill in estimating the
near surface currents. This study will investigate the modification and
improvement of simulated currents based on data from field projects that
have been conducted in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting methods will
improve ocean modeling and subsequently the OSRA calculations. .

**Date Information Required:** The results of this study will be
important to improve the Oil Spill Risk Analysis in the Gulf of Mexico.
The ongoing sale schedule and development of oil and gas will require
future improvement of the OSRA model.

**Revised Date:** 03/03

#  2.3 Profiles of Studies Proposed for the FY 2005 NSL and Beyond {#profiles-of-studies-proposed-for-the-fy-2005-nsl-and-beyond .Style1}

# **Table 2.** MMS Headquarters Proposed Studies for FY 2005 and Beyond {#table-2.-mms-headquarters-proposed-studies-for-fy-2005-and-beyond .Style4}

+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| * | *  | **Title**                                                   |
| * | *T |                                                             |
| P | op |                                                             |
| a | ic |                                                             |
| g | ** |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| * | ** |                                                             |
| * | \* |                                                             |
|   | \* |                                                             |
| * | ** |                                                             |
| * |    |                                                             |
| \ |    |                                                             |
| # |    |                                                             |
| * |    |                                                             |
| * |    |                                                             |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1 | FE | Detailed Investigation Analytical Methods/Protocol to       |
| 9 |    | Effectively Test for Potential PAH's in Marine Mammals and  |
|   |    | Fish Tissues: An Information Synthesis                      |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| \ |    |                                                             |
| * |    |                                                             |
| \ |    |                                                             |
| * |    |                                                             |
| P |    |                                                             |
| O |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| P |    |                                                             |
| h |    |                                                             |
| y |    |                                                             |
| s |    |                                                             |
| i |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| a |    |                                                             |
| l |    |                                                             |
| O |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| a |    |                                                             |
| n |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| g |    |                                                             |
| r |    |                                                             |
| a |    |                                                             |
| p |    |                                                             |
| h |    |                                                             |
| y |    |                                                             |
| F |    |                                                             |
| E |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| F |    |                                                             |
| a |    |                                                             |
| t |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| & |    |                                                             |
| E |    |                                                             |
| f |    |                                                             |
| f |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| t |    |                                                             |
| B |    |                                                             |
| I |    |                                                             |
| O |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| B |    |                                                             |
| i |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| l |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| g |    |                                                             |
| y |    |                                                             |
|   |    |                                                             |
| P |    |                                                             |
| S |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| P |    |                                                             |
| r |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| t |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| t |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| d |    |                                                             |
| S |    |                                                             |
| p |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| i |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| s |    |                                                             |
| S |    |                                                             |
| E |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| S |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| i |    |                                                             |
| a |    |                                                             |
| l |    |                                                             |
| & |    |                                                             |
| E |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| n |    |                                                             |
| o |    |                                                             |
| m |    |                                                             |
| i |    |                                                             |
| c |    |                                                             |
| O |    |                                                             |
| T |    |                                                             |
| = |    |                                                             |
| O |    |                                                             |
| t |    |                                                             |
| h |    |                                                             |
| e |    |                                                             |
| r |    |                                                             |
+---+----+-------------------------------------------------------------+

**ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: Studies Development Plan FY 2004-2006**

**Region:** Headquarters

**Planning Areas:** Generic-Applicable to All Planning Areas

**Type:** Joint Funding/Interagency

####### **Title:** Analytical Methods/Protocol to Effectively Test for Potential PAH's in Marine Mammals and Fish Tissues: An Information Synthesis  {#title-analytical-methodsprotocol-to-effectively-test-for-potential-pahs-in-marine-mammals-and-fish-tissues-an-information-synthesis .Profile}

**Cost** Range (in thousands): TBD **Period of Performance:** FY
2005-2006

**Description:**

[Background]{.underline} Exposure to petroleum might result in internal
uptake of PAH's by marine mammals and fishes. Such uptake from
ingestion, inhalation, or tissue absorption can be estimated post hoc
through measurement of PAH's and PAH biomarkers in selected tissues.
Identification of a effective protocol(s) for quantifying petroleum
exposure in fresh and archived specimen material would help MMS and
others to reliably and accurately evaluate trace levels of PAH's, PAH
metabolites, and P-450 between marine populations, species, and
localities. The issues of concern here include: Can the level of PAH
exposure in cetacean and fish tissue, and the sources, be accurately
estimated? What tissues should be evaluated, what are the impacts to the
marine species, and what impacts are possible if the tissues are
consumed by humans? The MMS Pacific, Alaska, and Gulf of Mexico OCS
Regions all include cetacean species and commercially valuable fish that
need to be protected and which may require mitigating measures. With the
OCS industry moving onto the Alaska OCS, into deeper waters of the Gulf
of Mexico, and considering the aging structures on the California OCS,
it could be a judicious time to assess appropriate methodologies and
whether there are PAH and PAH biomarker levels of concern in marine
mammal and fish species, the sources of these materials, and what
standardized techniques and methodologies are needed to identify and
quantify petroleum exposure.

This study would review and synthesize information on available and
developing state-of--the art analytical methods for determining PAH and
PAH biomarker levels in marine mammal and fish tissues. Information
would also be collected on alternative test methods and their advantages
or disadvantages identified.

Interagency support for this project would be sought from other
responsible authorities such as NOAA and/or EPA which may have
post-spill damage assessment responsibilities under respective enabling
legislation.

[Objectives]{.underline} The overall goal of this proposed study is to
conduct a search and synthesis of the available information on the
protocols for testing for oil-spill-related PAH's and PAH biomarkers in
cetacean and fish tissues. Specific objectives for meeting this goal
include:

1.  Review literature to document the most reliable and effective
    alternative chemical/biochemical analytical methods for measuring
    PAH and PAH biomarker levels in cetacean tissues such as the
    integument, blubber, bile, gut, etc.

2.  Identify advantages and disadvantages of alternative test methods in
    terms of potential confounding or uncontrolled variables, sources of
    error or reliability factors. Make recommendations regarding needed
    improvements in laboratory methodology, standards, processes, and
    analysis approaches.

3.  For all objectives, coordinate with ongoing work in other related
    MMS-sponsored or other related studies.

[Methods]{.underline} An extensive search of the published literature
and unpublished data sets, reports and manuscripts, will be performed.
Recent and ongoing research will be identified. Trends in methodology
should be characterized. Pertinent resources should be annotated and
developed as a large digital database.

[Products]{.underline} A searchable, annotated bibliography, final
report, data sets, and visuals. Hardcopies of all resources identified
in the bibliography should be included.

[Importance to MMS]{.underline} The potential for tainting of
subsistence-harvested cetaceans and other marine mammals and fishes from
spilled oil is a frequent concern of some coastal residents. In the
unlikely event of large oil spills, a variety of marine mammals and fish
species could be exposed, thereby potentially affecting subsistence
foods. The results of this study would allow MMS and/or other agencies
to monitor PAH levels and PAH biomarkers in cetacean and fish species
that might contact spilled oil and to correlate potential contaminant
loading with any sublethal effects observed.

**Date Information Required:** The results of this study could lead to
additional adaptation of methodology and technology work. These
improvements or advancements could be used by Federal, local, and State
authorities responsible for assessing and monitoring effects of oil
spills subsequent to such events. In addition, these methods would also
potentially be used to update oilspill response manuals in various OCS
regions as well as be used in future MMS-sponsored studies of cetaceans
when needed to augment available information for cumulative effects
assessments related to future proposed lease sales in the Draft Outer
Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program 2002-2007 (July 2001).

**Revised date:** 03/03

# SECTION 3.0 Topical Areas for FY 2006 {#section-3.0-topical-areas-for-fy-2006 .Style1}

This section describes program activities and emerging issues and
concerns that are likely to lead to information needs and research in FY
2005 and beyond.

# 3.1 Physical Oceanography {#physical-oceanography .Style2}

Future physical oceanographic studies are expected to be directed
towards improving the oil spill risk analysis process by incorporating
observational data into the risk assessment methods and by improving
ocean current modeling. The ESB will continue to support programs that
provide a better understanding of current transported spilled oil via
simulation modeling and surface drifter observations. Areas of study
will include the eastern Gulf of Mexico; the Santa Maria Basin/Santa
Barbara Channel, California; and nearshore Beaufort Sea and Cook Inlet,
Alaska.

# 3.2 Information Management {#information-management .Style2}

The MMS Technical Information Management System (TIMS) provides the
basic state-of-the-art geographic information system (GIS) tools to
store and analyze spatial data. Over the past several years the MMS has
developed an environmental data structure known as the Coastal and
Offshore Resource Information System (CORIS) as the environmental
component of TIMS. CORIS is modeled after the Gulf-Wide Information
System developed in the GOMR and several environmental GIS pilot
projects were undertaken to test the data structure.

The development of this data structure and the environmental data it
contains is an on-going effort. The database design is flexible and
allows for new data input from environmental studies and other data
sources. In addition, appropriate environmental data analysis tools that
exploit the query capabilities of a fully relational database structure
will create the ability to conduct comprehensive environmental analyses.
Basic tools (i.e. ArcView and ARC/Info) make these analyses available in
an \"expert friendly\" form. Customization of these basic tools can
create a \"user friendly\" interface, putting the power of GIS into the
hands of all MMS analysts.

# 3.3 Social Sciences {#social-sciences-1 .Style2}

Oil and gas industry complexity and change continues to be an important
issue. How it functions as an organizational system and affects social
structure should be documented in order to understand the social affects
this may have on employees, their families and the communities that are
tied to or are in proximity to oil and gas development. Closing the gaps
and making the connections between industry actions and effects on human
communities enables MMS to look across localities, regions and nations
and observe impacts. To do this several types of information are needed.
First, the U.S. is one of the few developed nations that does not keep a
labor force demography (because there are no requirements to do so).
Considering the magnitude of the contractor workforce and the global
nature of the industry, information is unavailable on the number of
offshore workers and the demogaphic breakdown of the workforce; i.e
women, minorities, etc. Second, we need to document "best practices" of
industry and compare these practices across national boundaries. Third,
communities are affected by offshore development depending on how and if
they have historically evolved with industry. In times of change,
communities may need to diversify their economic base. Their options for
community development and their capacity for change are important to
understand. Fourth, research has documented similar affects on
communities from OCS activity across nations. Therefore, more
comparative studies among developed and undeveloped countries would
certainly prove valuable. Fifth, research workshops are a valuable
source of information collection and dissemination. Finally, labor
mobility, shortages and employee loyalty are questions of concern to the
industry. Many of these issues have no national boundaries. Because oil
and gas is a global industy issues such as downturns, employee
shortages, loyalty and community impacts exist no matter where the
industry operates.

# 3.4 Hydrates {#hydrates .Style2}

There has been increasing interest in the last few years in the recovery
of gas hydrates from the OCS as a source of natural gas. Exploration
into the location and distribution of gas hydrates along the continental
slope of the Gulf of Mexico is presently underway with federal
government and industry partnerships. Within the next five years, this
could lead to the possible commercial extraction of hydrates. At the
national level, the Environmental Studies Program will continue to seek
opportunities to collaborate with other agencies and industry in hydrate
research projects that contribute to our knowledge of the marine
environment that could be affected by the development activity. This
approach is intended to allow us to achieve a highly leveraged
investment for our limited research dollars. Complementary to
collaborations at the national level, the Regions will develop local
area-specific environmental studies to meet the information needs of
resource managers in the region. Our vision will support MMS mission and
long-term goals and DOI goals focusing on environmentally sound
development of our nation's natural resources.