# THE SHANGHAI PRINCIPLES

# 

# FOR

# 

# CREATING SAFER CITIES & SOCIETIES 

# Through Sustainable Urban Development

# 

# 

# A New Road Map

# For The 21st Century 

# 

# 

# 

# By

##### Donald E. Geis

Geis Design-Research Associates

11704 Karen Drive, Potomac, MD. 20854 U.S.A.

DEGeis@aol.com

301-983-8358

Developed at the 5^th^ International Conference of LACDE\--Shanghai

# 

# REDUCING RISKS & VULNERABILITY THROUGH SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

# 

# 

# 

# Sponsored by

# The Local Authorities for Confronting Disasters & Emergencies (LACDE)

#  The Shanghai Municipal People's Government, and 

# The Shanghai Municipal Civil Defense Office

# 

# 

# 

# Shanghai, China 

## October 15^th^- 17^th^ 2002 

**Contents:**

#### The Shanghai Conference

#### [I) BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION]{.underline}

###### [A New Culture of Risk, Safety and Security]{.underline}

> **OUR CHALLENGE IN AN HISTORICAL NEXUS.**

####### The LACDE Mission

######### The Shanghai Conference Objectives

**[II) OBSERVATIONS, THEME PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS]{.underline}**

> **1) RESEARCH, EDUCATION AND APPLICATION**

2\) WORKING TOGETHER---A LOCAL, NATIONAL AND GLOBAL CONNECTION

3\) THE INTEGRAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREATING SAFER CITIES, SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE URBAN DESIGN-PLANNING PROCESS

> **The Role of City Design in Creating Safer and More Sustainable
> Cities & Societies**
>
> **4) RISK, VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT & MITIGATION IN THE CONTEXT OF
> CREATING SAFER DEVELOPMENT**

######### 5) INFRASTRUCTURE

######## 6) RESPECTING, UNDERSTANDING & UTILIZATING NATURE

> 7\) COMMUNITY/LOCAL FOCUS
>
> **A Bottom-Up Approach**
>
> 8\) OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO CREATING SAFER CITIES
>
> Creating Safer Cities Is Good Business for Local Authorities
>
> 9\) POLITICS, POLICY, AND GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY
>
> 10\) OUR NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE---THE FUTURE IS NOW

Acknowledgments

#### *The Shanghai Conference*

#### 

#### 

#### [I) BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION]{.underline}

###### 

###### *[A New Culture of Risk, Safety and Security]{.underline}*

... Along with our societies throughout the world, we as
disaster-emergency management professionals have entered a new
renaissance, and while some things will remain the same, much will have
to be reinvented. A new local, national and global culture has evolved
since our last conference two short years ago ...It is a Culture of
Risk, Safety and Security, and it is one that has moved to the very
forefront of our societal concerns, as well as our very own way of
life---both personally and particularly, professionally. This new
Culture requires us to expand our very role and leadership capacity to
meet the demands associated with this new, greatly enhanced challenge.

We must through our research, education and application ask
ourselves...What are the implications of this new culture on the very
nature of our cities, nations and societies, and on our own personal and
professional roles? What are our specific goals and what are the best
means of achieving them?

We must carefully consider the 10 principles and issues identified in
this paper as they have evolved from the historic LACDE-Shanghai
Conference, to see how they can be most effectively used to broaden and
enhance our roles and organizational mission. To accomplish this, we
will have to become educators, political activists, promoters, as well
as practitioners. This outstanding Shanghai Conference has provided us
with the springboard and the road map for dealing with these challenges
that we face in our world today. It is now up to us to provide the
leadership and initiative \...

###### 

**OUR CHALLENGE IN AN HISTORICAL NEXUS.**

This historically significant conference through its many expert
speakers has provided us with a wealth of valuable information and
knowledge. Over 30 speaker from many countries have covered a wide range
of subjects, including natural hazards and emergencies, as well as human
induced disasters. These subjects have included cyclones, earthquakes
and floods to chemical spills, building collapse, fires and terrorism
and epidemics.

The question now is how do we best use this valuable information and
knowledge\--. What do we do with it, and how can we most effectively use
to serve our fundamental mission?

We have seen great and historic changes since our last LACDE Conference
in 2000. A whole new historical nexus and culture has evolved---one that
not only significantly effects our local, national and global security,
but that also effects our very economic, social and political viability.
While these concerns have always been here, they have now greatly
expanded and a new dimension added after the triggering event of 911 in
the United States in September, 2001, and the SARS epidemic (1),
immediately following our October meeting in Shanghai. These particular
events (along with the many traditional hazards we have had to confront
over the years) and their resulting ramifications have significantly
affected all of us\--our societies and their priorities, as well as our
own personal and professional ones. It is a great challenge that we all
now need to face and deal with.

It is important to remember that while the context is broader and more
immediate, our inherent mission has not changed. It remains to minimize
the risks and vulnerabilities we

*(1) We were not yet aware of the SARS epidemic during our Conference.
However, since it evolved almost immediately afterwards while I was
preparing this report, and because of its great significance to our
subject, I decided to include it.*

face, some new and some old, in such a manner as to create the safest
and most secure and healthy societies and cities possible---physically,
economically, socially and politically.

It the context of our LACDE mission, it is essential to assist local
authorities achieve this most important goal, and provide them with the
necessary means to get there. Much of these local authorities' viability
-- economic, environmental and social---will depend on it, as well as
the countries they are apart of.

This is what has made the Shanghai meeting so valuable in this journey.
It has built the foundation and the road map for all of us to go ahead,
identifying significant issues, fundamental themes, and providing
direction, not only for LACDE and its members, but for all of us, our
communities, countries and the world, whose lives and quality-of-life
will be significantly affected by it in the coming months and years.

In this context, the purpose of this report is intended to frame this
mission. It has three primary goals:

I)  To summarize the results of the workshop, both from the speakers
    point of view as well as the comments from the attendees:

II) To identify what this author feels are the most important issues,
    themes and principles that have evolved from the Conference, within
    the historical context of where we find ourselves today regarding
    our professional roles, and the needs of our societies.

III) To make recommendations, within the preceding context, regarding
     what direction we need to take, and what principles we particularly
     need to focus on to optimize our mission, roles and contributions
     to these needs and challenges.

####### 

####### The LACDE Mission 

As we proceed with the objectives of this Conference Report, it is
essential to keep in mind the fundamental LACDE mission and the purpose
of the Shanghai Conference.

The mission of LACDE is:

a\) "To increase the effectiveness of Local Authorities/Governments in
preparing for and confronting potential disasters and emergencies,
natural and man-made, i.e.

Natural Disasters:

Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, floods, fires.

Man-Made Disasters:

Accidents at nuclear power stations, factories (especially chemical
solution); railways, sea and air disasters.

Epidemics: Cholera, etc.

### 

### b) To promote the study of disasters together with appropriate national, international and other organizations, in order to prevent, or mitigate the effects of, and recover from disasters.

### 

### c) To assist Local Authorities in related subjects." 

### 

######### The Shanghai Conference Objectives

It is also essential to keep clearly in mind the specific purpose and
theme of the Shanghai Conference: REDUCING RISKS & VULNERABILITY THROUGH
SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

The themes and objectives of the Conference were to provide:

1)  Approaches for identifying, quantifying and communicating risks;

2)  Activities undertaken to promote risk reduction in cities;

3)  Strategies for overcoming obstacles to creating safer cities;

4)  Rescue technologies for urban emergencies,

The title and objectives of this conference were very well defined and
clear. They are to address what this author considers to be the
fundamental issues of importance in this field today and for the future:
To identify and address the risks and vulnerabilities associated with
the many natural and human induced hazards, we face today, and how they
can be minimized so they do not become emergencies and disasters; this
can be done through mitigation and preparedness. If we do this and
emergencies/disasters still occur, then to assist local governments to
best deal with those disasters, through response, recovery and
reconstruction.

The Conference very intelligently related and wove these concerns into
the essential context of Sustainable Urban Development, with out which
they can not ever be achieved. Effective hazard and emergency-disaster
planning cannot be separated from sustainable urban development; they
are indivisible. For our purposes, sustainable urban development is the
urban planning and development that provides the quality of life needs
for the present\-- environmentally, economically, and socially---without
diminishing the capacity for future generations to achieve their quality
of life needs.

The fundamental question to keep in mind from this conference is how
best to do this. What strategies must we focus on with our limited
resources that can make the most difference? That must be our primary
goal, and will represent the framework in which the following
observations, principles and recommendations will be made.

**[II) OBSERVATIONS, THEME PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS]{.underline}**

The goal in this section is two fold: 1) First, to analyze and chose
what this author sees, from the context of my experience, as the most
relevant subjects and themes in today's new world, as presented by the
Conference speakers, and then, 2) to try and weave these themes into
what I see as the steps we must take to optimize our missions for the
future.

As mentioned before, a wealth of information and knowledge on our
subject has been presented at this conference. Speakers, from all over
the earth, have impressively presented their work and research on a wide
variety of specific subjects, including:

-   overcoming obstacles to creating safer cities

-   community based issues

-   infrastructure

-   telecommunication and technology

-   terrorism

-   hazardous materials

-   terrorism

-   water

-   cyclones and hurricanes

-   power outages

-   public awareness

-   infectious diseases (little did we know how relevant this one would
    become)

-   developing training and organizational frameworks

The following 10 theme-principles that have evolved from these
presentations represent what I feel are the most relevant issues for our
times today, and for our future. This was a very challenging task to say
the least and it must be said here that this process represents this
author's opinion, based on my years of combined experience, in urban
design-planning, sustainable development, and emergency/disaster
planning. Again, in summary, they are where I believe we must focus our
attention, and develop our strategies for the coming months and years.

**1) RESEARCH, EDUCATION AND APPLICATION**

There is much to explore and implement in this new culture and the
research-application-education relationship and function is essential
toward this effort. These three subjects are integrally connected as a
process and have been talked about extensively to one degree or another
over the two and one half days of the conference. In the new Culture of
Safety and Security we have previously discussed, they are essential to
working toward and achieving LACDE's objectives and mission that has
been defined in this Conference and Report. They must become the
foundation and Road Map on which we guide and build our programs. Of all
the discussion and needs these are the ones that relate to all the other
subjects evolving from the conference and where the greatest attention
must be given.

## As a part of this process, it will be necessary to develop a research agenda consisting of selected specific priorities from the following subjects. To accomplish this, a framework of universities, research organizations, local authorities, businesses and disaster-emergency practitioners will have to be organized and utilized within this context. Since resources will be needed to assist in this effort, private and public groups with mutual interests will have to be identified, contacted and brought on board as partners in this effort. Such potential funding groups might include insurance, power companies, telecommunication and information technological organizations, financial networks, and food producers and suppliers, to mention a few.

## 

## For the most part, traditional public entities do not have the required resources to provide the required financial support; it will therefore be necessary to partner with private organizations, who also have a great deal to gain from safer cities and societies, and who have the resources to do something about it. I believe that many opportunities, financially and organizationally exist in this arena as we work toward creating a successful, financially sound program. The research-education-practical application relationship and framework is essential in our area of emergency-disaster management, as it is in any successful venture in today and tomorrow's world. 

## 

## LACDE's Safe Cities Program has a great deal of potential toward this end, but will need more specificity in its application if its success is to be optimized in the context being discussed here. 

**2) WORKING TOGETHER---A LOCAL, NATIONAL AND GLOBAL CONNECTION.**

This important theme also has been interwoven through out many of the
presentations and is one that is also essential to our missions, but
often overlooked. In the new culture, much more attention must be given
to it. We will have to recognize and expand our definition of hazard
mitigation and emergency-disaster management to include
multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary considerations: education,
involvement with policy and political development, benefits and cost
issues, social and sustainable development elements, public awareness,
resource distribution and services, etc.

We will also have to rethink and improve our organizational-functional
frameworks, both internally and externally. This is necessary to ensure
that we optimize our professional role, our initiative and contributions
to this new evolving culture, to both our countries as well as to the
global community. The global context has become an important paradigm in
this effort. Everything is related to everything else, and an event in
one part of the world can have great and growing impact on the rest of
the world---economically, politically and health wise. A large
earthquake's possible impact on financial-communication networks is one
example of this along with epidemics such as SARS, terrorism and nuclear
spills.

Our local, province/state and national authorities will also have to
rethink the implications of this new culture of safety and their
organizational interdisciplinary roles in this mission. We will also
have to significantly assist in this goal, through education and direct
involvement. To accomplish this we will have to ensure our own
continuing education in the process

**3) THE INTEGRAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREATING SAFER CITIES,
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE URBAN DESIGN-PLANNING PROCESS.**

The theme of the conference has brilliantly brought this essential
relationship to the forefront. Safe and healthy communities and
sustainable development can not occur with out building bridges between
the two. They are inseparable. Sustainable development can be generally
defined as a development process that provides the needs for the present
generation that will not detract from the needs of future generations.
This includes health, safety, the natural-environmental, social and
economic viability.

And none of it can be done without effective urban design and planning
in general---the comprehensive planning process, growth management and
national urban policy. It is important to remember that almost every
sustainable and urban planning decision has implications for emergency
and disaster planning, from mitigation to response and reconstruction.
This includes issues such as infrastructure planning, location of
health, police and fire facilities, the protection of power facilities,
land use, and general functioning, including distribution of food, water
and other resources.

It is necessary to give more attention to these areas, their role and
relationship to each other, and their practical application. This area
and the research, education areas compliment each other very nicely and
should be the foundation for any new work in this field. This author's
work on Disaster Resistant Communities provides one
conceptual-application model that can be valuable in this effort.

**The Role of City Design in Creating Safer and More Sustainable Cities
& Societies**

Years of research and experience have taught us that there is an
integral relationship between how we design/shape our cities and
communities and their capacity to minimize the direct and indirect
losses from extreme natural as well as human induced hazards---to keep
hazards from rising to the level of emergencies and disasters. We must
therefore give a great deal of thought to integrating hazard &
emergency-disaster management principles and techniques into the city
design process.

City design and development must consider:

-   the relationship of development to natural (ecological and
    geological)systems,

-   development and redevelopment patterns,

-   configuration, scale and capacity of public infrastructure,

-   the design, location and service capacity of community facilities,

-   neighborhood and commercial district design, and

-   in general, the overall capacity, functioning and relationship of
    the various components and systems of our communities, from food and
    water distribution to information services.

As Winston Churchill stated within in the context of post WWII
reconstruction, "We shape our buildings (and Communities) and then they
shape us." In a natural and human induced hazard context, they shape our
capacity for safety, health and public welfare.

To embark on the process of developing safer and healthier cities, and
therefore safer societies, without understanding this essential role of
the built environment/development and its integral relationship to our
security goal will for certain result in failure. This applies as much
to the redevelopment of existing communities as to new development.

The design of the multi-scale built environment (development) is the
inherent means/language for implementing the principles of mitigation
and for ensuring the most effective preparedness, response and recovery
functions possible. It is an essential path toward minimizing risk and
vulnerability. This basic truth has, for the great part, been overlooked
in the hazards, emergency-disaster management field. It is essential to
remember that not only will the built environment be safer if these
techniques are followed, but economic, social, institutional, and
natural resource and ecosystem functions will also be less vulnerable.

LACDE has done a lot of work in this arena through its Safe Cities
Program, but there is more to be done. New research, education and
specific application programs should further develop this effort,
including considerations such as design guidelines, identifying risk/
vulnerabilities and design charretts /best practices.

**4) RISK, VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT & MITIGATION IN THE CONTEXT OF
CREATING SAFER DEVELOPMENT**

The process of creating safer communities provides the best means for
developing the most effective disaster and emergency management programs
possible. This includes risk and vulnerability assessments, as well as
optimizing the use of mitigation principles and techniques. It also can
serve to enhance the effectiveness of the other components of the
disaster management process\-- preparedness, response and recovery. And,
at a time when more and more resources and players are becoming involved
in disaster management, the safer-sustainable development approach can
also provide a valuable planning vehicle for organizing, relating and
optimizing the various roles in this process\--emergency managers,
community planners, health and safety officials, elected officials, and
citizen and business groups.

Almost all the speakers spoke, to one degree or another, about risk and
vulnerability, a primary theme for the Conference. This may rightly be
the dominant concern of any approach to hazard and emergency-disaster
planning, but I do not believe that is being approached in the most
effective and comprehensive manner possible. I cannot help but feel that
there is some confusion relative to the 'means and ends' regarding this
subject, and how best to use it in our mission. Where does it fit? What
is its role in the context of our missions? How can it best be
practically applied to our missions of creating safer and more
sustainable cities?

We must remember that at least 1/2 of any good solution is first a
fundamental and comprehensive understanding of the associated problem.
Such is the case for creating safer development. In this context,
comprehensively understanding the risks and vulnerabilities is the first
and essential step in minimizing disasters while creating safer and more
sustainable development.

We must therefore give more attention to defining these risks and
vulnerabilities, their relationship to each other, and particularly to
the means to accomplish this\--prevention, mitigation and the resulting
guidelines, principles and techniques required in this effort toward
creating safer communities. It should also be pointed out that like most
of the principles identified here, it is directly related to and has an
essential role to play throughout the other 9.

######### 

######### 5) INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure, be it transportation, water-food distribution systems,
power, communication or location of health and safety facilities,
evolved as one of, if not the most important considerations of this
conference. It is a subject that relates to almost everything else, and
should be the highest of priorities for research, educational and
application efforts.

Properly designed and located infrastructure is particularly critical in
both mitigation and disaster-emergency management. It may well be the
single most important tool available to us in minimizing risk and
vulnerability, because it has so much influence on everything else. A
dysfunctional power or transportation system can have major impact
implications for the local authority: general loss of community
productivity; disruption of access and services for businesses and
citizens, keeping residents from getting to work or to their daily
activities; keeping emergency vehicles from reaching their destination,
with the associated immense health and safety implications; and possible
disruption of the food and daily supply needs of the community.

Safe and sustainable infrastructure and development enhance the
functioning of a nation and local authority, resulting in more efficient
circulation for automobiles, public transportation, and more workable
natural and social infrastructure. This all contributes to a more
socially, environmentally and culturally viable community. And at a time
when more businesses are becoming interested in the overall
quality-of-life for their employees, safer and healthier local
authorities can be more economically viable as well. Thus, to a
community that places increasing value on safety, health, economic
development, and quality of life, minimizing risks and vulnerability
represents a solid investment.

These are just a few examples of the benefits associated with
sustainable and safer urban development. They point up the need for
local authorities to give greater attention to how they design and
develop their communities in hazard prone areas, and the associated
policy, design guidelines and regulatory tools needed to accomplish
this.

######## 6) RESPECTING, UNDERSTANDING & UTILIZATING NATURE

While not always direct, the natural systems and their role and
importance in the context of risk and vulnerability surfaced through out
the presentations. This leads us to another fundamental aspect of
dealing with hazards that needs to be emphasized in this discussion.

In the natural hazard context---flooding, hurricanes and earthquakes\--
the first and foremost step in creating safer cities and societies is to
respect and understand the workings of the natural environment,
ecologically, hydrologically and geologically, and then guide
development to compliment these systems and their functioning, not
interfere with them, as occurs in most cases.

This is also the first step in developing more sustainable and viable
communities in general. The majority of human and property losses, and
associated social and economic disruption from a natural extreme event
occurs as a result of not following this criterion, resulting with
inappropriate development that significantly contributes to the problem
rather than to the solution. The recent results of Hurricane Floyd in
the United States (North Carolina) provide an excellent example of this.
The initial losses and subsequent longer-term costs from an extreme
natural event such as flooding and cyclones are directly proportional to
the degree of change that occurs to the natural systems as a result of
development.

To design sustainable, safe cities and societies requires understanding
the inherent characteristics and functioning of the various systems of
nature: drainage-absorption patterns; watersheds; hydrologic systems and
cycles; wetlands and marshes; the coastal beach and dune systems; slope
and soil characteristics, and the general flora and fauna habitats.
Development should be designed and built so that its functioning,
capacity, scale, and density are in balance with the capacity, scale and
limits of the natural environment of which it is apart. Our objective
then becomes in affect one of helping nature help us by providing the
initial framework and direction for appropriate and safe development,
development that then by its nature minimizes vulnerability and risk.

7\) COMMUNITY/LOCAL FOCUS

While national and province/state involvement is necessary to develop
effective emergency and disaster planning, the local community/authority
is the fundamental entity where the program foundation must be built.
These plans must therefore be tailored to the local authorities if they
are to be effective. LACDE's mission directly lends itself to this goal
and therefore, in this fast evolving culture of safety, must continue to
develop and optimize its efforts toward this end.

If safer cities, development and societies are to be created, they will
have to be created at the local government level. While political and
policy support at the province/state and federal government levels are
important, it is only here at the local level where most development and
legal tools required to implement such an effort exists, particularly
the planning-development process. It is essential to keep in mind that
almost every planning and development decision made at the local level
regarding the built environment (development) has implications for
creating more sustainable, less vulnerable and, therefore, safer, more
secure communities and, therefore, societies.

**A Bottom-Up Approach**

In this context a grassroots or bottom-up approach is necessary. It is
essential to understand and fully utilize each nation's and community's
unique culture: government, the business community, the media, citizen
groups, etc. Using a goal oriented approach, the principles and
techniques associated with minimizing risk and creating safer
communities must be integrated into the local political, cultural and
planning-development framework many times already in place in each
community. They should be perceived as enhancing existing programs, not
just creating new ones. Such an approach must be built from the
grassroots level, respecting the unique qualities of each local
authority, built from the bottom up, not only superimposed from the top
down. Knowledge, technical information, best practices, support and the
demonstrated benefits, if needed and asked for, can be provided by
LACDE, but each community must be encouraged and empowered to implement
their own program, in their own way.

8\) OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO CREATING SAFER CITIES

Creating Safer Cities Is Good Business for Local Authorities

Safer cities, ones that minimize risk and vulnerabilities, are simple
better communities to attract and do business, as well as provide a
better quality-of-life for their residents.

Many speakers indirectly and directly touched on the obstacles of
implementing safer city programs in their countries and communities.

This is another area that deserves much attention in LACDE's research
and application efforts, because it is probably the one that can pay the
most dividends, for the local authorities, the societies, and LACDE
itself. It is an excellent context to connect our hazard mission to,
because everyone is interested in saving money, multi-benefits and
competing in the global economy. A research program should explore and
specifically define the relationship between developing safer cities and
economic viability, and present this as a selling point for advancing
LACDE's mission.

Minimizing Risks and Vulnerabilities represents an excellent investment
for national and local governments. In our newly evolving Culture of
Safety and Security, safer communities in a sustainable context have
never been more important considering the cost savings, both direct and
indirect, that we have come to understand they represent. If there ever
was an example of an ounce of prevention being worth a pound, or as we
are seeing in a hazard-disaster context, many, many pounds of cure, this
is certainly it.

Research has shown us that utilizing effective techniques for reducing
risk and vulnerability will provide many multi-benefits for the local
authority. Creating safer and healthier cities will enhance the
functioning of a community, resulting in more efficient circulation for
automobiles, public transportation, and more workable natural and social
infrastructure, and more efficient resource distribution. This all
contributes to a more socially, environmentally and culturally viable
community. And at a time when countries and local authorities are
competing in a global economy they are becoming more interested in the
overall quality-of-life for their citizens. Safer and healthier
communities are more conducive to economic development. Thus, to a
national and local government that places increasing value on safety,
health, economic development, and quality of life, creating safer
cities, by minimizing vulnerability, represents an important investment,
one that will help it attract new investment, business and citizenry.

9\) POLITICS, POLICY, AND GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY.

The need for this subject, both directly and indirectly, also surfaced
throughout our Conference, and it is certainly one that deserves a great
deal of attention in our mission.

The first and primary responsibility of governments, no matter what form
that government takes, is to protect the health, safety and well being
of all its citizens. Minimizing risk and vulnerability from natural and
human induced hazards, fall directly into that responsibility.

Living in communities as safe as possible from natural and human induced
hazards should not be thought of as a luxury, or a bonus. Living in such
communities should be considered a basic necessity. They should in fact
be thought of as a basic human right, associated with the inherent
health, safety and public welfare responsibility that our
governments---national, state and local---are charged with providing. At
the very minimum, the use of the state-of-the-art knowledge available on
this subject should be required when developing and redeveloping these
communities.

It is therefore a context that we all must give more attention to in
developing strategies for and implementing our mission goals. This is an
essential component and role in our new culture of safety and security.

Nothing significant can ever be accomplished in the area of creating
safer cities and societies without the support and initiative of our
governments and responsible political leaders---locally, nationally and
globally. The principles and techniques associated with minimizing risk
and vulnerabilities must be effectively interwoven into our national and
local policy if we are to have safer communities and societies. It
represents not only a responsibility for our governments, but it
represents every bit as important a responsibility and challenge for us,
hazard professionals, as we expand our role, become more proactive and
assist our leaders and citizenry to become more aware of the issues
being addressed here.

10\) OUR NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE---THE FUTURE IS NOW.

As discussed, we in the disaster-emergency management field are entering
a new renaissance and while some things will stay the same, much will
have to be reinvented, changing the lens, as we proceed. It is a new
culture---one of safety and security taking a new and much enhanced
role, and we will also have to expand our role and leadership capacity
to meet these new challenges. We will have to become much more proactive
in our approach, an approach that will help develop more of a public
awareness of the importance to our citizenry and political and business
leaders.

We must through our research, education and implementation ask
ourselves: What are the implications of the principles we are taking
about here on the very nature of our cities, nations and societies, and
on our own personal and professional roles? What are our specific goals
and what are the best means of achieving them? What strategies will work
most effectively, and perhaps most importantly, how can we get the
private, business community more involved?

We will have to carefully weigh these principles and issues identified
in this paper. We will have to become educators and political
pro-activists as well as practitioners. We will have to ensure that we
remain familiar with the best practices of the field, and we will have
to work much closer with each other and with a wider range of
interdisciplinary associates---economists, policy specialists,
ecologists, urban planners and the like, at both the local and national
level, as well as within the global community. We will have to become
researchers and become more aware of the relationship of hazard issues
with sustainable development and the urban planning process.

It will be essential to work as much with the private business community
as the public community, because, quite frankly, the private side often
has more to loose, and thus to gain, and has more resources. Our
challenge will be build bridges between our mutual interests and those
of the business community, no matter what country we live in. Our
success, both in the near and long run may very well depend on this. In
fact, this author feels strongly that this is actually the case.

We must also become much more familiar with how the elements and systems
of our cities and societies actually function, and the relationship
between this functioning and their capacity for minimizing the risks and
vulnerabilities discussed at the Conference and in this report. This
includes such considerations as: food production, distribution.and use
by the community; water supply, storage and distribution; information
technology networks; and power facilities and their systems. These
systems and their effective functioning are essential to our goal of
minimizing risks and vulnerabilities and subsequently to creating safer,
more secure societies.

We will also have to explore the role of and relationships between
natural hazards, such as flooding and hurricanes, and the human induced
ones such as terrorism and infectious diseases such as SARS. This will
be necessary to ensure that we optimize our resources and their
successful applications. The field has become too large and complicated
to do otherwise.

We will have to explore more fully the role of City Design and planning
including the implications of centralization and /or decentralization.
We will have to be able to deal with theory and models as well as the
'nuts and bolts' of pragmatic implementation, and how these macro and
micro ends can compliment and assist each other.

We will have to frame these issues into the context of practical
research, education, salesmanship and application, working with
governments, the business community, universities and the full range of
citizens who live in our countries. We will have to ensure equity,
making sure that all people of varying economic conditions are
protected.

We must also optimize the use of information development and transfer
technology in the process of achieving these principles and goals. This
can make our efforts much easier and much more productive.

In this new renaissance we will have to become renaissance men and women
to meet these new challenges, every bit of the way keeping our goals in
site as we take this journey toward achieving safer local authorities
and societies.

It will also be important for us to understand that "necessity being the
mother of invention" we must accept that crisis and risk can be viewed
as opportunities, the opportunity to create a better quality of life for
all our citizens, by promoting and providing healthier and safer cities
and societies to live in. This is another critical selling point, and
one of the numerous multi-benefit considerations that in a world of
limited resources may well become our most important selling point.

And finally, in summary, we will have to specifically focus on tailoring
these principles and strategies for local authorities, in such a manner
as to assist these local governments to integrate them into their own
cultures and circumstances, and in their own way, so that they can
achieve the very best results possible.

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*Copyright 2003, Donald E. Geis, Geis Design-Research Associates.*

All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast or
rewritten without the permission of the author.

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Acknowledgements

I want to take this opportunity to thank LACDE, the Shanghai Municipal
People's Government, and the Shanghai Municipal Civil Defense Office for
the wonderful opportunity to participate in this excellent and historic
Conference, and to present my observations and recommendations at the
Conference and in this report. The Conference and Report should not be
considered finished, but rather should be looked at as only a beginning
for continuing this important work.

*DEG... May 9, 2003*

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Donald E. Geis

Geis Design-Research Associates

11704 Karen Drive

Potomac, MD. 20854

U.S.A.

DEGeis@aol.com

301-983-8358

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