Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 1/13/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** MX5010

MX5000

**Mexico**

**Poultry and Products**

**Semi-annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Suzanne E. Heinen

U.S. Embassy Mexico City

**Prepared by:**

Gabriel Hernandez & Dulce Flores

**Report Highlights:**

Supply and use estimates for MY 2004 and 2005 (Jan-Dec) are largely
unchanged. Mexico continues to be a growing producer of chicken meat as
well as a growing importer, with imports of meat forecast to reach
364,000 MT in 2005. Turkey production is expected somewhat lower in 2005
as imports of parts and mechanically separated meat rise to meet demand
from the food processing industry. The Government of Mexico continues to
maintain import restrictions for certain poultry products from certain
U.S. states following the detection of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza in
2004.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Mexico \[MX1\]

\[MX\]

Table of Contents

[SECTION I. Situation and Outlook 3](#section-i.-situation-and-outlook)

[Poultry Situation and Outlook 3](#poultry-situation-and-outlook)

[SECTION II. Statistical Tables 4](#section-ii.-statistical-tables)

[POULTRY, MEAT, BROILER 4](#poultry-meat-broiler)

[POULTRY, MEAT, TURKEY 5](#poultry-meat-turkey)

[BROILERS RETAIL PRICE 6](#broilers-retail-price)

[BROILERS WET MARKET PRICES 6](#broilers-wet-market-prices)

[LEG QUARTER RETAIL PRICES 7](#leg-quarter-retail-prices)

[BEEF CARCASS WHOLESALE PRICES 7](#beef-carcass-wholesale-prices)

[MEXICAN IMPORTS FOR SELECTED POULTRY PRODUCTS
8](#mexican-imports-for-selected-poultry-products-jan-sep-2004)

[PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 10](#per-capita-consumption)

[MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE 10](#monthly-exchange-rate)

[SECTION III. Narrative on Supply and Demand, Policy & Marketing
11](#section-iii.-narrative-on-supply-and-demand-policy-marketing)

[CHICKEN MEAT 11](#chicken-meat)

[PRODUCTION 11](#production)

[CONSUMPTION 11](#consumption)

[TRADE 11](#trade)

[REGULATIONS FOR POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS EXPORTS
13](#regulations-for-poultry-and-poultry-products-exports)

[MARKETING 14](#marketing)

[TURKEY MEAT 14](#turkey-meat)

[PRODUCTION 14](#production-1)

[CONSUMPTION 14](#consumption-1)

[TRADE 14](#trade-1)

[MARKETING 15](#marketing-1)

# SECTION I. Situation and Outlook 

## Poultry Situation and Outlook

2005 forecasts of chicken meat supply and use remain unchanged as
production of chicken meat continues to expand, spurred by population
growth, competitive prices, rising incomes, and growing consumer health
consciousness. The July 2003 safeguard agreement on chicken leg quarters
continues to provide some additional trade protection for the Mexican
industry. Turkey meat production is now forecast slightly lower in the
face of stiff competition from U.S. and Chilean imports.

Mexico's poultry imports are largely comprised of chicken leg quarters,
turkey parts for further processing, and mechanically separated meat
(MSM). With limited domestic production of MSM, imports of these
products for MY 2005 are forecast to increase as demand from Mexico's
food and meat processors continues to grow. Imports of MSM for further
processing are not affected by the Government of Mexico's restrictions
on Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza, which apply to the U.S. states of
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey,
Texas, and Pennsylvania.

Recently, because of administrative concerns, the Government of Mexico
closed Reynosa as a port-of-entry to frozen chicken leg quarters (CLQ)
and selected meat varieties (H.T.S. 0207.14.04 & 0206.29.99,
respectively). A plan is currently being developed that would permit the
re-opening of this crossing point.

# SECTION II. Statistical Tables

## POULTRY, MEAT, BROILER 

+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country:**    | **Mex |       |       |       |       |       |
|                 | ico** |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity:**  | **Pou |       |       | **    |       |       |
|                 | ltry, |       |       | (1000 |       |       |
|                 | Meat, |       |       | MT    |       |       |
|                 | Broi  |       |       | )(MIL |       |       |
|                 | ler** |       |       | HE    |       |       |
|                 |       |       |       | AD)** |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                 | *     |       | *     |       | *     |       |
|                 | *2003 |       | *2004 |       | *2005 |       |
|                 | Revi  |       | Estim |       | Forec |       |
|                 | sed** |       | ate** |       | ast** |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                 | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |
|                 | *USDA | *Post | *USDA | *Post | *USDA | *Post |
|                 | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                 | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                 | \[Ol  | \[Ne  | \[Ol  | \[Ne  | \[Ol  | \[Ne  |
|                 | d\]** | w\]** | d\]** | w\]** | d\]** | w\]** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ######### Ma    | *     |       | *     |       | *     |       |
| rket Year Begin | *01/2 |       | *01/2 |       | *01/2 |       |
|                 | 003** |       | 004** |       | 005** |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Inventory       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| (Reference)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Slaughter       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| (Reference)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Stocks          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production      | 2290  | 2290  | 2400  | 2400  | 2520  | 2520  |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Whole, Imports  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Parts, Imports  | 337   | 337   | 356   | 356   | 364   | 364   |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Intra EC        | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Imports         |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Imports   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Imports   | 337   | 337   | 356   | 356   | 364   | 364   |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   |
| SUPPLY**        | 627** | 627** | 756** | 756** | 884** | 884** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Whole, Exports  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Parts, Exports  | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Intra EC        | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Exports         |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Exports   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Exports   | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Human           | 2626  | 2626  | 2755  | 2755  | 2883  | 2883  |
| Consumption     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Use,      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Losses          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Total Dom.      | 2626  | 2626  | 2755  | 2755  | 2883  | 2883  |
| Consumption     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Use       | 2627  | 2627  | 2756  | 2756  | 2884  | 2884  |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   | **2   |
| DISTRIBUTION**  | 627** | 627** | 756** | 756** | 884** | 884** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Calendar Yr.    | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Imp. from U.S.  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

## POULTRY, MEAT, TURKEY 

+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ###### Count    | **Mex |       |       |       |       |       |
| ry {#country-1} | ico** |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**   | **Pou |       |       | **    |       |       |
|                 | ltry, |       |       | (1000 |       |       |
|                 | Meat, |       |       | MT    |       |       |
|                 | Tur   |       |       | )(MIL |       |       |
|                 | key** |       |       | HE    |       |       |
|                 |       |       |       | AD)** |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                 | *     |       | *     |       | *     |       |
|                 | *2003 |       | *2004 |       | *2005 |       |
|                 | Revi  |       | Estim |       | Forec |       |
|                 | sed** |       | ate** |       | ast** |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                 | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |
|                 | *USDA | *Post | *USDA | *Post | *USDA | *Post |
|                 | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                 | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                 | \[Ol  | \[Ne  | \[Ol  | \[Ne  | \[Ol  | \[Ne  |
|                 | d\]** | w\]** | d\]** | w\]** | d\]** | w\]** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year   | *     |       | *     |       | *     |       |
| Begin**         | *01/2 |       | *01/2 |       | *01/2 |       |
|                 | 003** |       | 004** |       | 005** |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Inventory       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| (Reference)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Slaughter       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| (Reference)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Stocks          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production      | 14    | 14    | 17    | 14    | 17    | 14    |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Whole, Imports  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Parts, Imports  | 158   | 158   | 168   | 171   | 173   | 176   |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Intra EC        | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Imports         |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Imports   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Imports   | 158   | 158   | 168   | 171   | 173   | 176   |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | **    | **    | **    | **    | **    | **    |
| SUPPLY**        | 172** | 172** | 185** | 185** | 190** | 190** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Whole, Exports  | 0     | 0     | 1     | 1     | 1     | 1     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Parts, Exports  | 2     | 1     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Intra EC        | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Exports         |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Exports   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Exports   | 2     | 1     | 2     | 1     | 1     | 1     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Human           | 170   | 171   | 183   | 184   | 189   | 189   |
| Consumption     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other Use,      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Losses          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Total Dom.      | 170   | 171   | 183   | 184   | 189   | 189   |
| Consumption     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Use       | 172   | 172   | 185   | 185   | 190   | 190   |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | **    | **    | **    | **    | **    | **    |
| DISTRIBUTION**  | 172** | 172** | 185** | 185** | 190** | 190** |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Calendar Yr.    | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| Imp. from U.S.  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

## BROILERS RETAIL PRICE

+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| **[Broilers  |            |            |            |              |
| Retail       |            |            |            |              |
| Price]{      |            |            |            |              |
| .smallcaps}, |            |            |            |              |
| Mexico City  |            |            |            |              |
| [Pesos       |            |            |            |              |
| /kilogram]{. |            |            |            |              |
| smallcaps}** |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| ####         | 2002       | 2003       | 2004       | \% Change    |
| #### [Month] |            |            |            | 03/04        |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [January]    | 18.06      | 18.31      | 18.32      | 0.05         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [February]   | 16.12      | 18.73      | 18.69      | (0.21)       |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [March]      | 15.08      | 18.60      | 18.74      | 0.75         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [April]      | 16.98      | 18.42      | 18.64      | 1.19         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [May]        | 17.92      | 18.47      | 18.85      | 2.05         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [June]       | 18.54      | 18.24      | 18.83      | 3.23         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [July]       | 18.25      | 18.10      | 18.77      | 3.70         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [August]     | 17.93      | 18.06      | 19.22      | 6.42         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [September]  | 17.59      | 18.50      | 19.60      | 5.95         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [October]    | 17.70      | 17.87      | 18.64      | 4.31         |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [November]   | 17.74      | 17.25      | N/A        | N/A          |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [December]   | 18.19      | 17.97      | N/A        | N/A          |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [Annual      | 17.51      | 18.21      | N/A        | N/A          |
| Avg.]        |            |            |            |              |
| {.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+--------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+

[Source:]{.smallcaps} [National poultry association, una.]{.smallcaps}

## BROILERS WET MARKET PRICES

+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| *             |            |            |            |              |
| *[Broilers^a^ |            |            |            |              |
| Wet Market    |            |            |            |              |
| Prices,       |            |            |            |              |
| Mexico City   |            |            |            |              |
| Pes           |            |            |            |              |
| os/kilogram]{ |            |            |            |              |
| .smallcaps}** |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| ##            | 2002       | 2003       | 2004       | \% Change    |
| ###### [Month |            |            |            | 03/04        |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [January      | 18.00      | 20.70      | 18.08      | (12.65)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [February     | 17.50      | 21.00      | 18.17      | (13.47)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [March        | 18.17      | 21.20      | 19.63      | (7.40)       |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [April        | 19.75      | 21.00      | 18.88      | (10.09)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [May          | 20.30      | 21.67      | 16.83      | (22.33)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [June         | 20.25      | 22.17      | 19.35      | (12.72)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [July         | 19.92      | 22.36      | 20.38      | (8.86)       |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [August       | 20.71      | 21.60      | 20.25      | (6.25)       |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [September    | 20.00      | 22.50      | 20.21      | (10.18)      |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [October      | 20.20      | 16.50      | 18.10      | 9.70         |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [November     | 20.13      | 17.25      | N/A        | N/A          |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [December     | 20.90      | 18.08      | N/A        | N/A          |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [Annual       | 19.70      | 20.50      | N/A        | N/A          |
| Avg.          |            |            |            |              |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+
| [^a^          |            |            |            |              |
| ]{.smallcaps} |            |            |            |              |
| Whole chicken |            |            |            |              |
| including     |            |            |            |              |
| offal         |            |            |            |              |
+---------------+------------+------------+------------+--------------+

[Source:]{.smallcaps} [National poultry association, una.]{.smallcaps}

## LEG QUARTER RETAIL PRICES

  ------------------------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ---------------
  **[Leg Quarter Wholesale                                                  
  Prices, Mexico City                                                       
  Pesos/kilogram]{.smallcaps}**                                             

  [Month]{.smallcaps}             2002          2003          2004          \% Change 03/04

  [January]{.smallcaps}           17.14         18.50         18.34         (0.86)

  [February]{.smallcaps}          15.92         20.12         18.83         (6.41)

  [March]{.smallcaps}             17.69         19.98         20.10         0.60

  [April]{.smallcaps}             17.82         19.61         18.62         (5.05)

  [May]{.smallcaps}               18.35         19.54         18.50         (5.32)

  [June]{.smallcaps}              19.78         22.30         19.20         (13.90)

  [July]{.smallcaps}              19.33         21.00         21.84         4.00

  [August]{.smallcaps}            18.69         18.95         22.40         18.21

  [September]{.smallcaps}         18.96         16.54         19.64         18.74

  [October]{.smallcaps}           18.00         16.63         19.55         17.56

  [November]{.smallcaps}          18.30         16.07         20.32         26.45

  [December]{.smallcaps}          18.91         17.32         21.16         22.17

  [Annual Avg.]{.smallcaps}       18.24         18.88         19.87         5.24
  ------------------------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ---------------

[Source:]{.smallcaps} [National information market service,
(SNIIM)]{.smallcaps}

## BEEF CARCASS WHOLESALE PRICES

  -------------------------------- ------------------- ------------------ -----------------
  **[Beef Carcass Wholesale                                               
  Prices, Mexico City]{.smallcaps}                                        
  [Pesos/kilogram]{.smallcaps}**                                          

  [Month]{.smallcaps}              2003                2004               Change %

  [January]{.smallcaps}            24.04               26.91              11.93

  [February]{.smallcaps}           24.18               27.33              13.02

  [March]{.smallcaps}              24.30               27.11              11.56

  [April]{.smallcaps}              24.19               27.10              12.03

  [May]{.smallcaps}                24.10               27.12              12.53

  [June]{.smallcaps}               24.11               27.16              12.65

  [July]{.smallcaps}               24.02               27.36              13.91

  [August]{.smallcaps}             24.11               29.00              20.28

  [September]{.smallcaps}          24.08               30.91              28.36

  [October]{.smallcaps}            24.17               31.60              30.74

  [November]{.smallcaps}           24.91               31.79              27.62

  [December]{.smallcaps}           25.48               N/A                N/A

  [Annual Avg.]{.smallcaps}        24.30               N/A                N/A
  -------------------------------- ------------------- ------------------ -----------------

[Source: National Market Information Service (SNIM)]{.smallcaps}

## MEXICAN IMPORTS FOR SELECTED POULTRY PRODUCTS Jan-Sep 2004

##  {#section .unnumbered}

  ------------------------------------------------------------------------
  **H.S.T.**   **Description & Country of Origin**              **Volume
                                                                MT**
  ------------ ------------------------------------------------ ----------
  0105.11.01   Day old chicks, which do not need feeding during 
               transport                                        

               U.S.                                             1,178

               SPAIN                                            50

               OTHER                                            66

               SUBTOTAL (Thousand head)                         1,294

  0105.11.02   Breeding stock, layer-type with selected breed   
               certificate when imports are no more of 15,000   
               heads in each operation                          

               U.S.                                             304

               NETHERLANDS                                      12

               OTHER                                            13

               SUBTOTAL (Thousand head)                         329

  0105.11.99   Other                                            

               U.S. and subtotal                                144

  0105.19.99   Other (Chickens)                                 

               U.S.                                             4

               OTHER                                            14

               SUBTOTAL (Thousand head)                         18

  0207.11.01   Other fresh or chilled whole poultry             

               U.S. and subtotal                                0

  0207.12.01   Other frozen whole poultry                       

               U.S.                                             0

               OTHER                                            1

               SUBTOTAL                                         1

  0207.25.01   Whole frozen turkey                              

               U.S.                                             577

               CHILE                                            86

               OTHER                                            0

               SUBTOTAL                                         663

  0207.33.01   Whole ducks, geese & guineas frozen              

               U.S.                                             368

               OTHER                                            236

               SUBTOTAL                                         604

  0207.26.01   Mechanically deboned turkey meat                 

               U.S. and subtotal                                1,849

  0207.26.99   Fresh & chilled turkey parts                     

               U.S.                                             50,587

               Other                                            0

               SUBTOTAL                                         50,587

  0207.13.01   Mechanically deboned chicken meat fresh or       
               Chilled                                          

               U.S. and subtotal                                63,022

  0207.14.01   Mechanically deboned chicken meat frozen         

               U.S.                                             32,200

               CHILE                                            28,448

               SUBTOTAL                                         60,648

  0207.13.99   Fresh & chilled chicken parts                    

               U.S. and subtotal                                355

  0207.14.99   Frozen poultry parts                             

               U.S.                                             865

               OTHER                                            2,443

               SUBTOTAL                                         3,308

  0207.13.03   Chicken Leg Quarter, Fresh/chilled               

               U.S.                                             22,347

               OTHER                                            0

               SUBTOTAL                                         22,347

  0207.14.04   Chicken Leg Quarter, Frozen                      

               U.S.                                             65,342

               OTHER                                            458

               SUBTOTAL                                         65,800

  0207.27.01   Mechanically deboned turkey meat, frozen         

               U.S.                                             5,821

               OTHER                                            3,243

               SUBTOTAL                                         9,064

  0207.27.99   Frozen turkey parts                              

               U.S.                                             28,478

               OTHER                                            71

               SUBTOTAL                                         28,549

  0207.36.99   Duck, geese or guineas cuts, frozen              

               U.S.                                             15

               OTHER                                            7

               SUBTOTAL                                         22

  0207.14.02   Poultry livers                                   
  0207.36.01                                                    

               U.S. and subtotal                                0

  0407.00.01   Table eggs, fresh, including hatching eggs       

               U.S.                                             17

               OTHER                                            0

               SUBTOTAL                                         17

  1601.00.01   Sausages of broiler or turkey                    

               U.S.                                             11,265

               OTHER                                            24

               SUBTOTAL                                         11,289

  1602.31.01   Processed meat (Turkey)                          

               U.S.                                             957

               OTHER                                            45

               SUBTOTAL                                         1,002

  1602.32.01   Prepared or preserved chicken meat or offal      

               U.S.                                             3,700

               OTHER                                            80

               SUBTOTAL                                         3,780

  1602.39.99   Other processed poultry meat                     

               U.S.                                             4

               OTHER                                            4

               SUBTOTAL                                         8

  0207.13.02   Chicken carcasses                                

               U.S. & subtotal                                  9,369

  0207.14.03   Chicken carcasses                                

               U.S. & subtotal                                  4,330

  0207.26.02   Turkey carcasses                                 

               U.S. & subtotal                                  0

  0207.27.03   Turkey carcasses                                 

               U.S. & subtotal                                  0
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------

##  {#section-1 .unnumbered}

## PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 

  -------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -----------
  **PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION**                                  

  Products / pounds-         2001       2002       2003       2004

  EGGS                       44.50      44.54      41.96      42.33

  CHICKEN MEAT               45.97      47.80      49.09      50.52

  TURKEY MEAT                4.18       4.29       4.40       4.51
  -------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -----------

> Source: UNA (National Poultry Association)

Forecast

Includes whole turkey, turkey parts and processed products.

##  {#section-2 .unnumbered}

## MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE

![](media/image2.wmf)

# SECTION III. Narrative on Supply and Demand, Policy & Marketing

# CHICKEN MEAT

Estimates of chicken meat supply and demand in this report are unchanged
from the previous official USDA estimates. All 2003 estimates are based
on final official or final industry data.

## PRODUCTION

Mexican chicken production continues to rise as producers enjoy growing
demand for their products. Effective marketing campaigns, strong
financial positions among chicken processors, and continued improvement
in product quality should contribute to increased production. Producers
also appear to have benefited from the trade protections afforded by the
safeguard agreement for chicken leg quarters, which has been in place
since 2003. Chicken meat is generally the least expensive meat in
Mexico.

Costs of production for MY 2005 are expected to increase with
anticipated regular increases in the cost of electricity and
transportation. In the case of electricity, despite the availability of
lower rates for agricultural producers, some poultry producers say that
supplies of electricity at the lower rates are not always sufficient,
leaving them to use electricity at the established consumer rates. As
the industry expands and demands more electricity, this added cost is
expected to become more burdensome. However, lower U.S. prices for grain
and oilseeds should help to offset much of the increase in costs of
other inputs.

## CONSUMPTION

Chicken meat demand is considered to be relatively elastic in Mexico, so
changes in price result in significant changes in consumption,
particularly among lower income consumers. If prices rise, consumers can
switch to cheaper beans. Similarly, if prices drop, chicken tends to be
the first meat adopted by lower income consumers. Additionally, among
medium and higher income consumers, health consciousness and concerns
about cholesterol are prompting growth in chicken consumption. Consumers
continue to prefer fresh whole chickens to chicken parts. Although,
purchases of chicken parts are increasing, mainly in Mexico's rapidly
growing supermarket sector which caters primarily to higher-income
consumers. Also, Mexican consumers tend to prefer dark meat to white
meat. However, medium and high-income consumers appear to be expanding
their consumption of white meat.

For 2004, estimated average wholesale prices for CLQs in the northern
border region were USD \$ 0.29 per lb. Retail prices for the same
product in the main border region cities (Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, Tijuana
and Ciudad Juarez) ranged between USD \$ 0.39 - \$ 0.63 per lb.
Wholesale CLQ prices in Mexico City ranged between USD \$ 0.74 and 0.87
cents during 2004, well above prices in the border area, demonstrating
that imports of CLQs under the safeguard agreement affected prices near
the border, but provided sufficient protection to leave CLQ prices
significantly higher in interior markets. In 2003, prices of CLQs
marketed at the border averaged USD \$ 0.38 per Lb. For retail prices in
Mexico City see table on Section II. Statistical Tables.

## TRADE

Chicken and turkey meat are the primary poultry products imported by
Mexico. The processing industry imports most of the MSM and chicken cuts
as inputs for the domestic sausage and lunchmeat industries.

The final safeguard imposed on U.S. chicken leg quarters in July 2003
has been administered in accordance with the terms of the agreement (see
report MX 3099). According to the most recent official Mexican trade
data, imported CLQs under H.T.S. 0207.13.03 & 0207.14.04 were 88,147 MT,
as of September 2004, nearly 14 percent above the 77,632 MT imported as
of September 2003. The tariff phase-out schedule and the annual
1-percent increase in TRQ volume for CLQs are shown in the following
table.

  ---------- ----------------- ------------- -----------------------------
  **YEAR**   **TRQ (MT)**      **TARIFF**    **HIGH-RATE TARIFF**

  2003       100,000           0             98.8

  2004       101,000           0             79.0

  2005       102,010           0             59.3

  2006       103,030           0             39.5

  2007       104,060           0             19.8

  2008       0                 0             0
  ---------- ----------------- ------------- -----------------------------

Effective January 1, 2008, Mexico will provide full duty-free access and
eliminate the import licensing requirements for U.S. CLQs.

Mexico's Secretariat of Agriculture (SAGARPA) deems any Low Pathogenic
Avian Influenza (LPAI) strain other than H5 as being exotic to Mexico.
As a result, detections of various LPAI strains in the United States led
to the imposition of import restrictions for several U.S. states during
2004. Most recently, on September 13, 2004, SAGARPA, through the Office
of Animal Health, notified the U.S. government that they were banning
imports of raw poultry meat for direct consumption, live birds, and
hatching, table eggs and Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) eggs from Missouri
due to detections of LPAI in that state. Currently, import restrictions
continue for the states of California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland,
New Jersey, Texas, and Pennsylvania because of detections of LPAI, and
for the following Texas counties due to a 2004 detection of High
Pathogenic Avian Influenza: Gonzales, Guadalupe, Galdwell, Bastrop,
Fayette, La Vaca, De Witt, Karnes, Wilson, Comal and Hays. (see MX4123).
USDA technical experts continue to work with SAGARPA in an effort to
have these restrictions lifted.

On December 28, 2004, the Secretariat of Treasury (SHCP) published in
the *Diario Oficial* (Federal Register) the Sixth Resolution modifying
the 2004 Foreign Trade General Rules, in which the closure of the
Mexican border city of Reynosa and the opening of the Pacific port of
Salina Cruz were established for the entry of apples, certain variety
meats, and frozen chicken leg quarters. (see MX 5002). Mexican officials
appear to have imposed the restrictions in an effort to address issues
relating to the port's administration and concerns about the use of
court injunctions (*amparos*) which enabled importers to evade the terms
of the safeguard agreement. It's estimated that 20,000 MT of frozen CLQ
crossed Reynosa under amparos, during 2004. Officials are currently
working on a plan that would enable the port to re-open with improved
administrative procedures. Other ports of entry are not affected by this
decision.

The following table summarizes the regulations that are currently being
implemented by the Mexican government for U.S. live poultry and poultry
meat exports.

##  {#section-3 .unnumbered}

## REGULATIONS FOR POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS EXPORTS

+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| **Item**   | **Raw    | **Raw     | **Fully  | **Table   | **Live |
|            | Poultry  | poultry   | Cooked   | and       | B      |
|            | Direct   | Further   | Pr       | Hatching  | irds** |
|            | Consu    | Pro       | oducts** | Eggs**    |        |
|            | mption** | cessing** |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [AI states | NO       | YES       | YES      | NO        | NO     |
| export     |          |           |          |           |        |
| status]{.  |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [Required  | YES      | YES       | NO       | YES       | YES    |
| language   |          |           |          |           |        |
| on         |          |           |          |           |        |
| cleaning   |          |           |          |           |        |
| and        |          |           |          |           |        |
| di         |          |           |          |           |        |
| sinfection |          |           |          |           |        |
| of         |          |           |          |           |        |
| trucks]{.  |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [Required  | YES      | YES       | NO       | YES       | YES    |
| sealing of |          |           |          |           |        |
| trucks at  |          |           |          |           |        |
| point of   |          |           |          |           |        |
| origin]{.  |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [Agar Gel  | YES      | NO        | NO       | YES       | YES    |
| test       |          |           |          |           |        |
| r          |          |           |          |           |        |
| equired]{. |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [Cer       | YES      | YES       | YES      | YES       | YES    |
| tification |          |           |          |           |        |
| re         |          |           |          |           |        |
| quirements |          |           |          |           |        |
| on         |          |           |          |           |        |
| END]{.     |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| [SAGARPA   |          |           |          |           |        |
| still does |          |           |          |           |        |
| not allow  |          |           |          |           |        |
| imports of |          |           |          |           |        |
| bone-in    |          |           |          |           |        |
| chicken    |          |           |          |           |        |
| leg        |          |           |          |           |        |
| quarters   |          |           |          |           |        |
| for        |          |           |          |           |        |
| further    |          |           |          |           |        |
| processing |          |           |          |           |        |
| to the     |          |           |          |           |        |
| interior   |          |           |          |           |        |
| of Mexico  |          |           |          |           |        |
| because of |          |           |          |           |        |
| concerns   |          |           |          |           |        |
| about      |          |           |          |           |        |
| products   |          |           |          |           |        |
| being      |          |           |          |           |        |
| diverted   |          |           |          |           |        |
| to the     |          |           |          |           |        |
| retail     |          |           |          |           |        |
| market.]{. |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [Imports   |          |           |          |           |        |
| are        |          |           |          |           |        |
| prohibited |          |           |          |           |        |
| from the   |          |           |          |           |        |
| states of  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Co         |          |           |          |           |        |
| nnecticut, |          |           |          |           |        |
| C          |          |           |          |           |        |
| alifornia, |          |           |          |           |        |
| Delaware,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| New        |          |           |          |           |        |
| Jersey,    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Maryland,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Missouri,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Texas, and |          |           |          |           |        |
| Pe         |          |           |          |           |        |
| nnsylvania |          |           |          |           |        |
| because of |          |           |          |           |        |
| AI.]{.     |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [Test      |          |           |          |           |        |
| should     |          |           |          |           |        |
| begin 21   |          |           |          |           |        |
| days       |          |           |          |           |        |
| before     |          |           |          |           |        |
| laying and |          |           |          |           |        |
| should     |          |           |          |           |        |
| continue   |          |           |          |           |        |
| on a       |          |           |          |           |        |
| quarterly  |          |           |          |           |        |
| basis.]{.  |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [END       |          |           |          |           |        |
| statement  |          |           |          |           |        |
| for meat,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| meat       |          |           |          |           |        |
| products   |          |           |          |           |        |
| and by     |          |           |          |           |        |
| p          |          |           |          |           |        |
| roducts. - |          |           |          |           |        |
| "That the  |          |           |          |           |        |
| product    |          |           |          |           |        |
| comes from |          |           |          |           |        |
| flocks     |          |           |          |           |        |
| that have  |          |           |          |           |        |
| a          |          |           |          |           |        |
| monitoring |          |           |          |           |        |
| program of |          |           |          |           |        |
| 70 birds   |          |           |          |           |        |
| that began |          |           |          |           |        |
| after 12   |          |           |          |           |        |
| days of    |          |           |          |           |        |
| age, using |          |           |          |           |        |
| viral      |          |           |          |           |        |
| isolation  |          |           |          |           |        |
| tests and  |          |           |          |           |        |
| iden       |          |           |          |           |        |
| tification |          |           |          |           |        |
| of         |          |           |          |           |        |
| velogenic  |          |           |          |           |        |
| strains    |          |           |          |           |        |
| through a  |          |           |          |           |        |
| test that  |          |           |          |           |        |
| indicates  |          |           |          |           |        |
| int        |          |           |          |           |        |
| racerebral |          |           |          |           |        |
| pat        |          |           |          |           |        |
| hogenicity |          |           |          |           |        |
| in chicks  |          |           |          |           |        |
| of one day |          |           |          |           |        |
| of age and |          |           |          |           |        |
| that is    |          |           |          |           |        |
| carried    |          |           |          |           |        |
| out for    |          |           |          |           |        |
| each lot   |          |           |          |           |        |
| that is    |          |           |          |           |        |
| delivered  |          |           |          |           |        |
| for        |          |           |          |           |        |
| slaughter, |          |           |          |           |        |
| obtaining  |          |           |          |           |        |
| negative   |          |           |          |           |        |
| results    |          |           |          |           |        |
| for        |          |           |          |           |        |
| Velogenic  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Newcastle  |          |           |          |           |        |
| disease,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| or that    |          |           |          |           |        |
| comes from |          |           |          |           |        |
| a country  |          |           |          |           |        |
| free of    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Velogenic  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Newcastle  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Disease.   |          |           |          |           |        |
| "]{.       |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [Imports   |          |           |          |           |        |
| are only   |          |           |          |           |        |
| approved   |          |           |          |           |        |
| to proceed |          |           |          |           |        |
| to Federal |          |           |          |           |        |
| Inspected  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Plants     |          |           |          |           |        |
| (TIF) and  |          |           |          |           |        |
| non-TIF    |          |           |          |           |        |
| meat       |          |           |          |           |        |
| processing |          |           |          |           |        |
| facilities |          |           |          |           |        |
| authorized |          |           |          |           |        |
| by         |          |           |          |           |        |
| S          |          |           |          |           |        |
| AGARPA.]{. |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [Imports   |          |           |          |           |        |
| are        |          |           |          |           |        |
| prohibited |          |           |          |           |        |
| from       |          |           |          |           |        |
| C          |          |           |          |           |        |
| alifornia, |          |           |          |           |        |
| Co         |          |           |          |           |        |
| nnecticut, |          |           |          |           |        |
| Delaware,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Maryland,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Missouri,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| New        |          |           |          |           |        |
| Jersey,    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Pe         |          |           |          |           |        |
| nnsylvania |          |           |          |           |        |
| and Texas, |          |           |          |           |        |
| unless     |          |           |          |           |        |
| their      |          |           |          |           |        |
| d          |          |           |          |           |        |
| estination |          |           |          |           |        |
| is an      |          |           |          |           |        |
| est        |          |           |          |           |        |
| ablishment |          |           |          |           |        |
| authorized |          |           |          |           |        |
| by SAGARPA |          |           |          |           |        |
| to carry   |          |           |          |           |        |
| out        |          |           |          |           |        |
| thermal    |          |           |          |           |        |
| treatment  |          |           |          |           |        |
| processes. |          |           |          |           |        |
| However,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| imports of |          |           |          |           |        |
| raw        |          |           |          |           |        |
| materials  |          |           |          |           |        |
| for        |          |           |          |           |        |
| thermal    |          |           |          |           |        |
| processing |          |           |          |           |        |
| should not |          |           |          |           |        |
| come or    |          |           |          |           |        |
| originate  |          |           |          |           |        |
| from the   |          |           |          |           |        |
| following  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Texas      |          |           |          |           |        |
| counties:  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Gonzales,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Guadalupe, |          |           |          |           |        |
| Galdwell,  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Bastrop,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| Fayette,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| La Vaca,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| De Witt,   |          |           |          |           |        |
| Karnes,    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Wilson,    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Comal and  |          |           |          |           |        |
| Hays.]{.   |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
|            |          |           |          |           |        |
| [For       |          |           |          |           |        |
| additional |          |           |          |           |        |
| i          |          |           |          |           |        |
| nformation |          |           |          |           |        |
| regarding  |          |           |          |           |        |
| poultry    |          |           |          |           |        |
| meat and   |          |           |          |           |        |
| egg        |          |           |          |           |        |
| products   |          |           |          |           |        |
| exports to |          |           |          |           |        |
| Mexico see |          |           |          |           |        |
| the web    |          |           |          |           |        |
| page       |          |           |          |           |        |
| USDA/F     |          |           |          |           |        |
| SIS/Export |          |           |          |           |        |
| Library at |          |           |          |           |        |
| [ht        |          |           |          |           |        |
| tp://www.f |          |           |          |           |        |
| sis.usda.g |          |           |          |           |        |
| ov](http:/ |          |           |          |           |        |
| /www.fsis. |          |           |          |           |        |
| usda.gov/) |          |           |          |           |        |
| (Export    |          |           |          |           |        |
| Re         |          |           |          |           |        |
| quirements |          |           |          |           |        |
| for meat   |          |           |          |           |        |
| and        |          |           |          |           |        |
| poultry    |          |           |          |           |        |
| pr         |          |           |          |           |        |
| oducts)]{. |          |           |          |           |        |
| smallcaps} |          |           |          |           |        |
+------------+----------+-----------+----------+-----------+--------+

Following the Avian influenza detections in Asia and the United States,
Mexico's poultry industry began more closely exploring export options in
Asia, particularly in China and Japan. The industry participated in a
SAGARPA trade mission to China and is hopeful that the recently
completed Mexico-Japan Free Trade Agreement will lead to new
opportunities. While the agreement is not yet in effect, Mexican
producers will be granted a 10 MT tariff-rate quota (TRQ) at zero duty
for trade show samples during the first year. TRQ access will increase
to 2,500 MT in year two and will increase by 2,000 MT annually until
reaching 8,500 MT in year five. TRQ access will then remain at the 8,500
MT level. TRQ and high-tier tariff levels have not yet been established,
but Mexican poultry producers are hopeful that they will be able to make
inroads in the Japanese market, possibly even at the high-tier tariff
level.

## MARKETING

Mexico's poultry producers conduct generic promotional campaigns,
particularly during the holiday season. Additionally, major processors
advertise their products regularly. The campaigns, coupled with the
relative affordability of poultry products and consumer health concerns
appear to have been consistently successful in expanding per capita
chicken consumption. The majority of U.S. chicken exports are used as
inputs to further processing or are consumed directly (primarily CLQs)
in the border area. U.S. exporters should focus on the many uses of
chicken in food processing, institutional uses, and the health benefits
of chicken. Mexico also imports small quantities of whole ducks for
consumption in the restaurant sector, primarily by Chinese restaurants.

# 

# TURKEY MEAT

## PRODUCTION

Turkey meat production for MY 2004 and 2005 (Jan-Dec) is now estimated
lower at 14,000 MT as domestic producers continue to face competition
from U.S. and Chilean imports. While most of the turkey produced in
Mexico is marketed as whole birds, imports of both parts and whole birds
appear to be stifling the growth in domestic production.

## CONSUMPTION

Demand for turkey products from the processing industry is expected to
continue strong. Consumption of turkey in the form of cold cuts
continues to increase, primarily through sales in supermarkets and
delicatessen-type restaurants. Average per capita consumption is
estimated by UNA at 4.51 pounds for 2004 including whole turkey, turkey
cuts and other turkey products. Consumption estimates for MY 2003 were
revised slightly upwards based on the latest official data. Turkey
prices during the Christmas season in 2004 were US \$2.84 to \$3.10/kg
for whole uncooked turkey, and US \$3.72 to \$3.99/kg for smoked turkey.

## TRADE

MY 2005 turkey meat imports are forecast slightly higher in light of
expectations that imports from the U.S. and Chile will increase. Demand
for turkey parts, mainly from the United States, for further processing
remains strong. Turkey meat imports for MY 2004 were revised upward to
171,000 MT due to increased demand and the pace of imports. Turkey meat
imports for MY 2003 remain unchanged. The processing industry imports
most of the turkey parts and mechanically separated turkey (MST) as
inputs for the domestic cold-cuts industry. Domestic meat processors are
importing turkey thigh meat to produce cooked hams made up of blends of
domestic pork and U.S. turkey thighs.

##  MARKETING

Around 75 percent of the total production in Mexico is marketed as whole
turkeys during the Christmas season and approximately 25 percent is sold
as cut-up and further processed turkey meat products. The USA Poultry
and Egg Export Council, along with local turkey producers, has sponsored
generic marketing campaigns to increase overall consumption of selected
turkey products in Mexico. Turkey's strength in Mexico appears to be its
flexibility as an input in the food processing sector as well as its
growing acceptance among consumers in the form of lunchmeat and turkey
hams. Consumption of whole birds has thus far been limited primarily to
the holiday season, and at this stage there does not appear to be a
shift away from this tendency.

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