**Puget Sound Steelhead Technical Recovery Team**

**Wednesday, May 28^th^, 2008**

**NWFSC, Auditorium, 10:00AM-4PM**

**Draft Agenda**

**5/28/2008 -- draft meeting notes are in *italics***

10:00 am Logistics, progress report, next meetings, etc. **(Jeff Hard)**

*Attendance*

*TRT members:*

*Jeff Hard, George Pess, Bob Hayman, Robert Kope, Ed Connor, Anne
Marshall, Jim Myers, Gino Lucchetti, Brad Thompson.*

*Other participants: Gary Winans (NWFSC), Bob Donnelly (NWR), Tim Tynan
(NWR), Justin Mann (NWFSC), Jason Mulvihill-Kuntz (Puget Sound
Partnership).*

*Our next meeting is scheduled for June 19^th^.*

*It is possible to hold future meetings in Olympia or Lacey.*

*Contact Jeff if interested in hosting a PSS TRT meeting.*

*Three goals for today's meeting:*

*Gary Winans is to give a presentation on his research into genetic and
phenetic variation of O. mykiss above and below dams in the Green and
Elwha rivers*

*Run through viability analyses and introduce the decision support
system framework developed by the Oregon coast coho TRT*

*Jim Myers will introduce a framework for considering alternative strata
scenarios*

10:10 Recolonization of Steelhead (*O.mykiss*) Above Dams **(Gary
Winans)**

*See presentation:*

*Elwha R. & Green R.*

*3 data sets*

*Microsatellite loci*

*Major histocompatibility (MHC) loci*

*Morphological characters*

> *Took digital measurements and noticed physical characteristic
> differences depending on whether the fish lived above or below dams.*
>
> *Comments:*
>
> *More metrics than just genetics should be used to determine
> viability.*
>
> *Observations and field work, along with technology should be
> employed.*
>
> *[Question]{.underline}: where would we lose the resident fish if we
> didn't have the anadromous fish?*

11:15 Viability Criteria and Analyses **(Jeff Hard)**

*See presentation:*

*Primary Objectives*

*Assessment of current population analyses*

*Prediction of its future risk*

*A population's persistence depends on:*

*How large it is now (current status)*

*How fast it is capable of growing (productivity)*

> *Key Question: how large and productive would it have to be to keep
> its extinction risk within a tolerable limit?*
>
> *Define risk as the probability of a population falling below some
> threshold within a given time frame*
>
> *VSP Diversity -- Residency and Anadromy*
>
> *Not clear how to incorporate into stratum / DPS viability; perhaps
> use DSS (PD criterion)*

*Approaches to assessing viability*

*General Risk of Extinction patterns for Puget Sound steelhead*

> *For this first run through, basically split up SaSI pops for which
> demographic data from WDFW exist into: North Puget Sound,
> Central/South Puget Sound, Hood Canal, Strait of Juan de Fuca*

*Brightest spots in northern Puget Sound*

*Populations in central and southern Puget Sound are generally smaller*

*Hood canal populations are at high risk*

*Of great concern: Cedar/Lk. WA, most SPS populations, Skokomish*

*Biological Recovery Decision Support System*

*Fuzzy logic*

*All VSP criteria can be considered*

*Truth value terminology; -1 to +1*

*Truth Membership Function*

*e.g., Probability of persistence \< 0.8 -\> Truth value = -1*

*DSS Analysis Conclusions*

> *Analysis most sensitive to assessment of abundance and productivity
> (especially for persistence)*
>
> *Structure and diversity also play important roles (especially for
> sustainability)*
>
> *The likelihood that the DPS will persist (i.e. NOT reach QET in 100
> years) is low over a wide range of VSP conditions*
>
> *Hood Canal and SJF are weakest provisional "strata" in the DPS*
>
> *DPS persistence is limited by poor viability of populations in 3 or 4
> strata: Central/South sound, Hood Canal and SJF*
>
> *This Method:*
>
> *Allows us to single out a run type*
>
> *Very transparent*
>
> *Easy to pick out where the real drivers are*
>
> *Able to integrate information across multiple scales*
>
> *Uses terminology we have to use*
>
> *Will need to be very clear about the subtle differences in
> terminology*

12:00 pm **LUNCH**

1:00 Population Identification Group Discussion **(Jim Myers)**

*Presentation -- see graphs*

*SaSI stocks on far left column*

*All SaSI information is on the Oracle website*

> *Feel free to mix and match so that you come up with a combination
> that is most logical to you*
>
> *Idea is to identify independent populations of steelhead in the DPS
> based on genetic, life history, and demographic similarity/difference.
> Then, we would like to organize these populations into 'strata' based
> on genetic, life history, ecogeographic, hydrological, and landform
> criteria, and also on consideration of catastrophic risk*

*Chinook salmon population identification document has useful
information*

*Comments:*

*Anne wanted to put together a list of questions for the group to
answer.*

*Brad Thompson asked if the group's objectives conflict with each
other.*

3:00 Goals For Next Meeting **(All)**

*Goals:*

*Jeff wants to run through the fuzzy logic model with a simpler system
next time to demonstrate sensitivity of output to various functional
relationships.*

*Modify functional relationships in ways that are specific to steelhead;
try to add specific elements to deal with: presence of resident fish,
presence of summer-run fish, repeat spawning & kelting.*

*Anne may be able to get more information on summer steelhead.*

*The group should attempt to hash out some of the alternatives for
strata during the next meeting.*

3:30 **ADJOURN**