Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/6/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** JO4004

JO4004

**Jordan**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Asif Chaudhry

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Hala Y. Khoury

**Report Highlights:**

Drought has affected the output of Jordan\'s 2003/2004 grain production.
Total loss in field crops is estimated at \$18 million. Wheat imports
during this period totaled 554,000 metric tons, of which 42 percent came
from the United States. The PL 480 Title I program under USDA
facilitated the shipment of 135,000 metric tons of wheat. Jordan\'s corn
imports totaled 450,000 metric tons, of which 71 percent came from the
United States. Rice imports were 125,000 metric tons, of which 18
percent came from the United States.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Amman \[JO1\]

\[JO\]

Table of Contents

**Executive
Summary...................................................................................
.......3**

### PSD Table, Wheat................................................................................... ..........4 

**Production**

Wheat..................................................................
........................................................................4

**Consumption**

Wheat
.................................................................................................................................
.......4

### Trade

Wheat
....................................................................................................................................
....4

Import Matrix,
Wheat.............................................................................
..........5

PSD Table, Barley.
............................................................................................6

Production

Barley
....................................................................................................................................6

Consumption

Barley
.................................................................................................................................
.......6

Trade

Barley
.........................................................................................................................................
6

**Import Matrix,
Barley.......................................................................................
7**

**PSD Table,
Corn................................................................................................
8**

**Production**

Corn
...........................................................................................................................................
8

**Consumption**

Corn
............................................................................................................................................
8

**Trade** Corn
.......................................................................................................................................
....8

**Import Matrix, Corn
..........................................................................................9**

**PSD Table, Rice
................................................................................................10**

**Production**

Rice
...........................................................................................................................................10

**Consumption**

Rice
...........................................................................................................................................10

**Trade**
Rice...........................................................................................................................................10

**Import Matrix, Rice
.........................................................................................11**

**Grain Production and Pricing
..........................................
..............................11**

**Market
Development................................................................................
......12**

# **Executive Summary**

# 

# Persistent drought conditions continue to negatively effect Jordan's grain production. In 2003/2004, total loss in field crops is estimated at \$18 million. Strong imports of wheat and corn are necessary to offset market deficiencies left by poor local growing conditions. 

# 

  ------------------------ ------------ ------------ ------- ------------ ------- ------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**              **Jordan**                                              

                                                                                  

  **Commodity:**           **Wheat**                                               

                                        **2002**             **2003**             **2004**

                           Old          New          Old     New          Old     New

  **Market Year Begin**                 **Jul-02**           **Jul-03**           **Jul-04**

  Area Harvested           73           50           62      13           27      50

  Beginning Stocks         208          129          143     205          78      111

  Production               35           70           35      12           35      50

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports   600          666          600     554          600     605

  Jul-Jun Imports          600          666          600     554          600     605

  Jul-Jun Import U.S.      450          200          594     235          450     330

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**         843          **865**      778     **771**      713     **766**

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports   0            0            0       0            0       0

  Jul-Jun Exports          0            0            0       0            0       0

  Feed Dom. Consumption    100          0            100     0            100     0

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption   700          660          700     660          700     660

  Ending Stocks            143          205          78      111          13      106

  **TOTAL DISTRIBUTION**   843          **865**      778     **771**      713     **766**
  ------------------------ ------------ ------------ ------- ------------ ------- ------------

#  

Production/Consumption

#  

The 2003/2004 rainfall season was characterized by low rainfall
quantities at variable levels throughout the country. Wheat production
is estimated at 12,000 metric tons from a planted area of 12,790
hectares. This compares to 70,000 metric tons from an area of 50,000
hectares in 2002/2003. Severe drought conditions reduced this year's
harvest. Wheat consumption is approximately 660,000 metric tons
annually.

Trade

Wheat imports during MY2003/2004 totaled 554,000 metric tons. The United
States supplied 235,000 metric tons (42 percent of total imports).
USDA's PL480 Title I program facilitated the shipment of 135,000 tons of
wheat. Although GSM-102 programming was available during MY2003/2004,
Jordan purchased only 50,000 tons of wheat under this program.
Commercially, U.S. wheat exports declined during this marketing year due
to: (1) a Japanese donation of 300,000 metric tons of wheat and (2) high
U.S. prices relative to other origins.

Imports of wheat during MY2004/2005 from the United States are forecast
to be around 280,000 tons. Again, USDA PL480 Title I program will
facilitate the shipment of 135,000 tons. It is expected that Jordan will
purchase more U.S. wheat under the GSM program during this marketing
year. Prices will be the determining factor.

  ----------------------- ----------------- ---------------- -------------
  **Import Trade Matrix**                                     

  **Country:**            **Jordan**        Units:           1000 MT

  **Commodity:**          **Wheat**                           

  **Time period:**        **July/June**                       

  **Imports for**         **2003**          ** **            **2004**

  U.S.                    235               U.S.             330

  Others                                    Others            

  Czech.Rep               97                Kazakhstan       50

  Australia               50                Russia           100

  Germany                 100               Syria            75

  India                   72                Hungary          50

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

  **Total for Others**    319                                275

  **Others not listed**                                       

  **Grand Total**         554                                605
  ----------------------- ----------------- ---------------- -------------

  ------------------------ ------------ ---------- ------- ---------- ------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                

  **Country:**             **Jordan**                                          

  **Commodity:**           **Barley**                                          

                                        **2002**           **2003**           **2004**

                           Old          New        Old     New        Old     New

  **Market Year Begin**                 **July             **July             **July
                                        2002**             2003**             2004**

  Area Harvested           52           66         93      6          80      50

  Beginning Stocks         57           236        51      166        26      65

  Production               45           68         30      7          65      30

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports   649          402        300     492        450     600

  Oct-Sep Imports          609          0          300     492        450     600

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.      0            0          0       0          0       0

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**         751          **706**    381     **665**    541     **695**

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports   0            0          0       0          0       0

  Oct-Sep Exports          0            0          0       0          0       0

  Feed Dom. Consumption    700          540        355     600        515     600

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption   700          540        355     600        515     600

  Ending Stocks            51           166        26      65         26      95

  **TOTAL DISTRIBUTION**   751          **706**    381     **665**    541     **695**
  ------------------------ ------------ ---------- ------- ---------- ------- ----------

Production/Consumption

Jordan's barley production during MY 2003/2004 is projected at 7,000
metric tons from a planted area of 6,230 hectares against 68,000 metric
tons from a planted area of 66,580 hectares in 2002/2003, a sizeable
reduction due to severe drought conditions. Domestic barley consumption
is about 600,000 metric tons annually. Barley is mainly used for cattle
and sheep and sometimes for poultry feed.

## 

Trade

Barley imports during 2003/2004 totaled 492,000 metric tons, Syria was
the major supplier, shipping 440,000 metric tons or 89.4 percent of
total imports. Other suppliers were Ukraine, supplying 46,000 metric
tons, and France supplying 6,320 metric tons. Jordan's imports of barley
during MY2004/2005 are expected to be around 600,000 metric tons. Since
1999, the GOJ has been the sole importer of barley and sets the price of
barley for the livestock producers at JD80 per metric ton and for
retailers at JD 127 per metric ton.

  ----------------------- ------------------ --------------- -------------
  **Import Trade Matrix**                                     

  **Country:**            **Jordan**         Units:          1000 MT

  **Commodity:**          **Barley**                          

  **Time period:**        **July/June**                       

  **Imports for**         **2003**           ** **           **2004**

  U.S.                    0                  U.S.            0

  Others                                     Others           

                                                              

  Syria                   440                Australia       50

  Ukraine                 46                 Ukraine         550

  France                  6                                   

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

  **Total for Others**    492                                600

  **Others not listed**                                       

  **Grand Total**         492                                600
  ----------------------- ------------------ --------------- -------------

  ------------------------ ------------ ------------ ------- ------------ ------- ------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country:**             **Jordan**                                              

  **Commodity:**           **Corn**                                                

                                        **2002**             **2003**             **2004**

                           Old          New          Old     New          Old     New

  **Market Year Begin**                 **Oct-02**           **Oct-03**           **Oct-04**

  Area Harvested           1            0            1       0            1       0

  Beginning Stocks         0            92           0       79           0       79

  Production               1            0            1       0            1       0

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports   442          437          650     450          500     500

  Oct-Sep Imports          442          437          650     450          500     500

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.      272          105          0       320          0       350

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**         443          **529**      651     **529**      501     **579**

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports   0            0            0       0            0       0

  Oct-Sep Exports          0            0            0       0            0       0

  Feed Dom. Consumption    417          450          625     450          476     450

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption   443          450          651     450          501     450

  Ending Stocks            0            79           0       79           0       129

  **TOTAL DISTRIBUTION**   443          **529**      651     **529**      501     **579**
  ------------------------ ------------ ------------ ------- ------------ ------- ------------

## 

Production/Consumption

Jordan's locally produced corn is mostly used as corn-on-the cob for
human consumption. In MY 2003/2004, approximately 450,000 metric tons of
imported corn were used as feed for poultry.

## 

Trade

Corn imports during MY2003/2004 were 450,000 metric tons of which 71
percent came from the United States. Other suppliers were Argentina,
supplying 113,587 metric tons or 25 percent of total imports, and India
supplying 17,165 metric tons or 4 percent of total imports. Imports
during MY2004/2005 are expected to be equivalent to 2003/2004, with the
United States again being the major supplier. Corn is imported in bulk
by the private sector and no longer faces a 5.2 percent import tariff as
a result of the Free Trade Agreement signed between Jordan and the
United States.

  ------------------------ ---------------- --------------- -------------
  **Import Trade Matrix**                                    

  **Country:**             **Jordan**       Units:          1000 MT

  **Commodity:**           **Corn**                          

  **Time period:**         **Oct/Sept**                      

  **Imports for**          **2003**         ** **           **2004**

  U.S.                     320              U.S.            350

  Others                                    Others           

  Argentina                113              Argentina       150

  India                    17                                

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

  **Total for Others**     130                              150

  **Others not listed**                                      

  **Grand Total**          450                              500
  ------------------------ ---------------- --------------- -------------

  ---------------------- ------------ ------------- ------- ------------ ------- ------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                   

  **Country:**           **Jordan**                                               

  **Commodity:**         **Rice,                                                  
                         Milled**                                                

                                      **2002**              **2003**             **2004**

                         Old          New           Old     New          Old     New

  **Market Year Begin**               **\######**           **Jan-03**           **Jan-04**

  Area Harvested         0            0             0       0            0       0

  Beginning Stocks       14           42            47      47           42      62

  Milled Production      0            0             0       0            0       0

  Rough Production       0            0             0       0            0       0

  Milling Rate (.9999)   0            0             0       0            0       0

  TOTAL Imports          200          105           100     125          100     120

  Jan-Dec Imports        200          105           100     125          100     120

  Jan-Dec Import U.S.    83           48            0       22           0       30

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**       214          **147**       147     **172**      142     **182**

  TOTAL Exports          0            0             0       0            0       0

  Jan-Dec Exports        0            0             0       0            0       0

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption 167          100           105     110          100     110

  Ending Stocks          47           47            42      62           42      72

  **TOTAL DISTRIBUTION** 214          **147**       147     **172**      142     **182**
  ---------------------- ------------ ------------- ------- ------------ ------- ------------

## 

Production/Consumption

Jordan has no rice production and its consumption requirements are
estimated at 100,000 metric tons per year, ninety percent is medium
grain (Camolino). Jordanian private sector companies import rice freely.

Trade

Imports in 2003 were 124,665 metric tons, of which 22,338 metric tons
came from the United States. Major suppliers were Egypt and Australia,
supplying 45,280 and 30,355 metric tons respectively, (36 percent and 24
percent of total imports). Total rice imports during 2004 are forecast
at the same level as 2003. Competition for medium grain rice is tough
between the United States, Australia and Egypt. Egyptian rice is
imported bagged and in small ships. Australian rice is imported in bulk
and bagged. U.S. rice is imported in bulk and bagged in Jordan. Imports
of consumer packaged, parboiled long grain and basmati rice during 2003
are expected to amount to 15,000 tons. U.S. long grain rice exports face
strong competition from Thailand.

  ---------------------- -------------------- -------------- ------------
  **Import Trade                                              
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country:**           **Jordan**           Units:         1000 MT

  **Commodity:**         **Rice, Milled**                     

  **Time period:**       **Jan-Dec**                          

  **Imports for**        **2003**             ** **          **2004**

  U.S.                   22                   U.S.           22

  Others                                      Others          

                                              Egypt          45

                                              Australia      30

                                              Thailand       9

                                              Italy          5

                                              Pakistan       5

                                              Spain          4

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

                                                              

  **Total for Others**   0                                   98

  **Others not listed**                                      5

  **Grand Total**        22                                  125
  ---------------------- -------------------- -------------- ------------

Grain Production and Pricing

The 2003/2004 rainfall season is characterized by low rainfall
quantities at variable levels throughout various regions of the country.
High temperatures during February/March, accompanied by hot wind waves,
have had a negative impact on winter and summer crops. The GOJ continues
to import wheat and barley and sets prices for wheat sold to millers and
flour sold to bakers.

The government also sets retail prices for two types of bread known as
unified and baladi bread. The unified type of bread accounts for 90
percent of Jordan's wheat consumption. The price of wheat sold to
millers is JD 98.480/metric ton. The price of flour is JD 121.130/metric
ton for the unified flour and JD 124.400/metric ton for the baladi
flour.

In addition, in 2003/2004 the GOJ continued its grain subsidy policy
whereby it encourages farmers to plant wheat and barley and purchases
these crops at higher than market support prices. Price supports are
announced every year prior to the planting season. This year, GOJ
purchased 6,485 tons of wheat at JD200/ton and 133 tons of barley at JD
200/ton.

Market Development

Jordan will continue to import most of its wheat and barley needs and
all of its corn and rice requirements. The United States is expected to
facilitate its sales through GSM credit guarantees and other assistance
programs. Financing will continue to be a crucial factor in Jordan's
purchasing decision due to Jordan's limited foreign exchange and
budgetary structure.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Development Cooperators (U.S. Wheat
Associates, U.S. Grains Council and the U.S. Rice Council) provide
valuable, technical in-country assistance and trade service programs as
well as training for Jordanians inside and outside of Jordan.