Workshop Summary

*Applications of NASA Earth Science Data and Model Results toward the
Future*

Workshop on energy-Related Policy Issues: 2010 -- 2020

Held 28 June 2006

Resources for the Future

Washington, DC

*Resources for the Future, Inc. and SAIC, Inc. conducted an
invitation-only workshop on the topic of future policy drivers for
energy and energy-related issues during the period 2010 to 2020 and
beyond. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
requested this workshop in order to consider issues in energy management
as a possible application of NASA's earth science research activities in
the coming years. In order to inform mission planning and science
research, NASA sought a deeper understanding of key policy drivers that
are likely to prevail in energy management in the US and
internationally.*

**[Purpose of and Audience for Outcomes of the Workshop:]{.underline}**
The workshop was an opportunity for experts to share perspectives on
likely high-priority issues in energy during the coming decade and
beyond and then, in the coming months, to use workshop findings to
inform planning of future Earth science instrumentation and science data
products. The workshop was also intended as an opportunity for NASA's
Earth science experts to broaden and deepen relationships with energy
communities; open ongoing relationships with experts in these areas; and
ultimately, strengthen the contribution of Earth science modeling
capability and data inputs to enhance and improve public policy. For the
public at large, the workshop findings can provide a broad context in
which to anticipate and understand future energy challenges and the
potential role of Earth science information \-- from the unique vantage
point of space \-- in meeting these challenges. **It was important to
emphasize the [future]{.underline}** **[orientation]{.underline} of the
workshop, as well as its focus on policy drivers as distinguished from
(albeit closely and directly related to) the modeling and science of
energy.**

[Our Questions:]{.underline} Our objective was to identify future policy
and regulatory issues in energy resources and related concerns that have
been identified by international and domestic decisionmakers as a focus
of prominent concern in the coming decade, 2010 -- 2020, and beyond. The
questions we sought to answer included:

1\. What are the key issues most likely to dominate during 2010 -- 2020,
both nationally and internationally, in energy resource quantity, use
(demand and technology), and management? We included as possible
concerns the following separate (although in some cases related) topics:

-   the relationships among energy and other natural resources (such as
    hydropower) in potential supply and use;

-   energy and developing countries (including growing demand in India
    and China as well as the relative importance between, say, investing
    in energy versus clean water for basic infrastructure services in
    other developing countries);

-   energy and the environment;

-   alternative energy scenarios and strategies (at a broad level);

-   challenges in transportation, transmission, facility siting for
    energy production and distribution;

-   prospects for improvements in energy efficiency (in buildings,
    appliances, transport and industry);

-   the future of cleaner fossil fuels;

-   carbon capture and storage;

-   renewable energy; and

-   future directions in international energy cooperation.

2\. What "policy drivers" or underlying policy-related factors are
likely to influence these issues?

3\. What decision support systems are in place or will be in place to
respond to these issues?

4\. What are the types of data that are necessary to make informed
decisions/policies regarding these issues?

[Usefulness of the Results:]{.underline} Our immediate audience for this
summary is the earth science managers at the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA). At a later date, and with the observations
provided at the workshop, these managers may choose to consider the
potential contribution of required instrumentation and other hardware in
Earth science space technology. At that point, relevant questions may
be:

1.  What role can earth observations play to provide timely, accurate,
    and useful information for crucial decisions?

2.  How best can we identify the measurement and data products that will
    best address these concerns?

Synopsis

*The following synopsis highlights the major contributions by workshop
participants in considering policy drivers for 2010 -- 2020 and beyond.
The synopsis is prepared without attribution to particular speakers but
is intended to capture the range and intensity of their concerns. Papers
and articles referenced at the workshop are listed at the conclusion of
the synopsis. Attendees are also listed.*

Key Themes

Our experts identified several themes as the drivers of energy policy in
the coming decade and beyond. First, they set the stage by speaking at
length about energy prices in one energy-using sector, that of
transportation. Here they were referring specifically to oil and gas
prices, which had been fairly high during the months prior to the
workshop and thus a topic of much public attention. Interestingly,
experts agreed that the "end of the age of oil" is highly unlikely for
many decades. The world is not running out of \$50 to \$60 per barrel
oil and after adjusting for inflation, gasoline prices were not at "all
time highs." (For further discussion on this point of view, and
recognizing that there are other strongly held points of view, a
representative article is Holtberg and Hirsch, 2003, listed in the
references at the end of this workshop summary).

However, regarding energy supplies in another sector of the economy,
that of electricity, one expert noted that the US Energy Information
Agency projects a 60% increase in demand for coal by 2025 because the
price of oil and natural gas are expected to continue to rise (see
Darmstadter, 2006 in references). Energy markets in the electricity
sector naturally interact with energy markets in the transportation
sector; for example, the use of biofuels (e.g., corn-based ethanol fuel)
will likely increase in some segments of the transportation as the cost
of oil continues to rise.

The experts did not see a massive transformation to renewable energy and
nuclear power by 2030. However, the experts identified a large number of
energy issues that will loom particularly large in the next decade
regarding fossil fuels in both transportation and electricity. General
preliminary discussion among the experts also highlighted that after
2012, the commitments made by signatories to the Kyoto Protocol will
end. That point raises questions about the global climate regime. What
will the industrialized and developing countries do at that point?

In ensuing discussion, the experts emphasized the strong likelihood of
policy drivers in the following areas over the next decade:

-   carbon management, including carbon markets and carbon
    sequestration;

-   alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear);

-   the growing role of the agricultural sector not just as a producer
    of biofuels but also as a major landholding sector potentially
    involved, for example, in the siting of wind farms as an alternative
    source of electricity production;

-   energy supply and demand modeling;

-   models and uncertainty;

-   developing country issues; and

-   data visualization for public participation in decisionmaking.

Key Recommendations and NASA Opportunities

The experts easily agreed that the routine use of remote sensing as a
means of data collection is crucial in energy markets for exploration,
mapping resources, protecting supplies, and monitoring CO~2~
sequestration by way of forest and agricultural resources. Remote
sensing information is required for a host of different types of energy
supplies including fossil fuels as well as solar, hydro, and other
sources. Another requirement is for improving understanding of energy
resources and their environmental effects during extraction, production,
and use. Data are also required for real-time energy management and for
problems such as routing and monitoring the transportation of fuel
stocks, and for managing electricity dispatch at power plants.

Experts also readily acknowledged a differentiation between the role of
NASA earth science in basic research and in research on applications at
the federal level, to support federal agency mandates. With that
delineation in mind, the experts identified the following opportunities:

1.  Routine use of remote sensing as a means of data collection is
    crucial in energy markets for exploration, mapping resources,
    protecting supplies, and monitoring CO~2~ sequestration by way of
    forest and agricultural resources.

2.  Remote sensing information is required for a host of different types
    of energy supplies including fossil fuels as well as solar, hydro,
    geothermal, biofuels, and other sources. Other requirements include
    improving understanding of energy resources and their environmental
    effects during extraction, production, and use, how global climate
    change will influence local climate, which affects energy usage, and
    how global climate change will influence the global distribution of
    the resources for renewable energies.

3.  Data are required for real-time energy management and for problems
    such as routing and monitoring the transportation of fuel stocks,
    and for managing electricity dispatch at power plants.

4.  A white paper exploring the contribution of NASA remote sensing data
    to (a) carbon markets (as well as water and energy markets, as
    discussed at previous of these workshops) and (b) carbon
    sequestration, including vis the agricultural sector, would be an
    informative starting point of tremendous value for the entire
    resource and policy communities.

5.  Remote sensing observations to (a) identify and inform these
    feedback loops and (b) benchmark the relationships among existing
    ecosystems and human use are critical.

6.  A looming issue on the forefront of energy and a major concern of
    modelers is monitoring carbon capture and storage. The footprint for
    a leak could be hundreds of square miles. Space-based instruments
    would be the most likely tools for data collection; regardless of
    the ultimate role which NASA or other agencies would play, the
    modelers ask "are such data likely to be available?" It was noted
    that the public must be convinced that such monitoring would be
    feasible before sequestration gets "citizen approval."

7.  A long-appreciated contribution of remote sensing to climate
    modeling has been the potential role of data in reducing the
    uncertainty underlying the models. The problem of funding long-term,
    continuous observations and climate data records is well recognized,
    as is the uncertainty inherent in the data themselves (what is a
    trend? what is an anomaly?). Experts agreed that these data are
    without substitute.

8.  The role of remote sensing in alternative fuel development and
    management ranges from ability to monitor chemical signatures
    (nuclear power, carbon sequestration leakage), to understanding land
    use (for the agricultural sector's possibly large role in biofuels),
    to providing data for interagency coordination and energy
    infrastructure management (for corridors and siting of natural gas
    and possibly, hydrogen pipelines, transmission lines).

9.  The contribution of remote sensing to energy in developing countries
    ranges from decisions these countries may make after the expiration
    of Kyoto commitments in 2012 to these countries' requirements to
    have a baseline for resource stocks for rapidly growing demand in
    transportation and power sectors.

10. Data visualization for informing the public and decision-makers is
    not useful without (a) good data, and (b) understanding of dynamics
    of earth science, the natural resource base, and human effects. NASA
    earth science research is essential for this information.

Carbon Management

Presently, fossil fuels in the form of oil, natural gas and coal
comprise approximately 80% of the world\'s energy use. In the next 20
years, it is projected that there will be a 60% increase in the demand
for predominately fossil-fuel based energy globally, largely due to the
energy demands by developing countries (US Energy Information Agency).
In the absence of management of greenhouse gases associated with fossil
fuel use, environmental impacts will of course increase. Experts have
agreed that empowering markets for greenhouse gas control is of vital
importance in the future. Markets for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide,
and now greenhouse gases (specifically, carbon and methane) are in play.
Carbon markets may take the form of cap and trade or other arrangements
allowing market like exchange of carbon allocations. Under cap and
trade, market trading of carbon permits takes place with the total
number of permits capped or set by government policy. Carbon markets
will require information about sources and sinks. Market players -- and
the players who need this information \-- include companies and
governments. Remote sensing data either directly measuring carbon flows
or providing data, which can serve as indirect proxies for these flows
would be imperative.

Methane is likely to be the next greenhouse gas targeted for stricter
control. What role might earth science data play?

In addition to carbon markets, a second aspect of carbon management
emphasized during discussion was carbon sequestration, including both
research on the technology of sequestration and data required to carry
it out, as well as monitor leaks. Experts asked whether DoE would be the
"right" agency or whether a "DARPA-like" agency would be better. Remote
sensing will play a vital role in monitoring the oceans (a major sink
for carbon), tree-farm changes (tree farms not only serve as a carbon
sink by using fast growing trees, but also contribute to the biofuel
supply), and other terrestrial carbon sinks.

Discussion emphasized other issues related to carbon. For example, US
coal production is shifting to low sulfur, surface Western coal, which
has lower heat content than Eastern coal. This trend together with the
projected 60% increase in the use of coal for energy by 2025 may mean
more CO~2~ to make up for the lower heat content. Appalachian producers
may start to compete with cleaner western coal on the basis of new
technology for desulphurization.

It should be noted that US EPA has taken a lead in carbon sequestration,
especially by storage methods, and is beginning to look into monitoring
as an issue. They have a near-term need for carbon measurements
globally, but especially in the United States and China.

Given these issues, experts agreed that a white paper exploring the
contribution of NASA remote sensing data to carbon markets (and mention
was also made of water and energy markets, as discussed at previous of
these workshops) and carbon sequestration is a necessary informative
starting point for the entire resource community.

Modeling

In terms of modeling, experts emphasized that climate modeling lacks
good feedback loops and this shortcoming is a "fatal flaw" in
economists' models. For example, the effects of climate on the Brazilian
ecosystem and in turn, on the production of biofuels are relationships
for which science and data must be integrated into climate models. The
tradeoff of production of food versus production of biofuels when both
outputs require land represents a difficult decision for many developing
countries. Remote sensing observations to (a) identify and inform these
feedback loops and (b) benchmark the relationships among existing
ecosystems and human use would also be critical; how to incorporate
these observations into climate modeling for policy simulation is also
of keen importance.

The Energy Modeling Forum

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), a loose collection of *ad hoc* working
groups under the auspices of Stanford University, involves 19 economic
models run by about sixty institutions around the world to look at
integrated assessments of impact of climate change on the energy sector.
The organizations affiliated with the EMF are listed at
<http://www.stanford.edu/group/EMF/about/index.htm> (accessed September
2006). NASA is not listed among these groups.

The August 2006 issue of the *Energy Journal* describes the EMF models.
In all cases, remote sensing data and information could improve the
detail and capability in these models. But questions include: how to
integrate data? Which data? Using which software tools? And how best
might modelers be trained in use and benefit of remote sensing data?

A large gap in the EMF modeling capacity is the lack of data and earth
science research to understand radiative forcings, and the role of
carbon capture and storage, nuclear electricity, and biofuels in
managing these effects. "Bio Energy Captured Storage" (BECS) is a
decision support structure emerging as a significant player in any
appreciable mitigation activity. The model assumes, for example, that
one can plant switchgrass and hold climate constant -- yet the
assumption is false, and needs better science to rectify it. Another gap
is tying together ecosystems and economic/climate modeling -- again,
data are key.

Another concern of EMF and other modelers is monitoring carbon capture
and storage. The footprint for a leak could be hundreds of square miles.
Space-based instruments would be the most likely tools for data
collection; regardless of the ultimate role which NASA or other agencies
would play, the modelers ask "are such data likely to be available?" It
was noted that the public must be convinced that such monitoring would
be feasible. Should NASA have a liaison to the EMF efforts or host a
small workshop with EMF representatives?

The National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)

The NCEP was represented at the meeting. The NCEP is a nongovernment,
bipartisan organization funded by the William and Flora Hewlett
Foundation to make recommendations about the nation's energy policy. The
NCEP figured prominently in moving forward the 2005 Energy Policy Act
and now largely focuses on climate change, oil and energy security, and
energy infrastructure. In all cases, data and information are crucial
for understanding baseline assessments and in particular, for modeling
to simulate alternative policy outcomes. A specific, upcoming topic at
NCEP is the relationship between agriculture and carbon sequestration; a
possible policy approach is permit allocations for trading among ag
producers engaged in sequestration. Furthermore, NCEP has proposed that
the US emissions reduced in 2020 by 540 million metric tons of CO~2~ per
year. A white paper on the role of NASA data as the underpinning to this
step \-- that is, a description of what data are or could be available,
aside form the decision support tools or what government agency might
implement routine use of the data \-- would be extremely helpful.

Modeling and Uncertainty

A long- appreciated contribution of remote sensing to climate modeling
has been the potential role of data in reducing the uncertainty
underlying the models. The problem of funding long-term, continuous
observations and climate data records is well recognized, as is the
uncertainty inherent in the data themselves (what is a trend? What is an
anomaly?). Experts agreed that these data are without substitute.

Alternative Fuels

Nuclear \-- If a trend towards increased use of nuclear power
electricity production continues in some countries, use of remote
sensing for detection and attribution of chemical signatures may prove
critical to monitor concerns associated with nuclear proliferation. Such
monitoring is not a substitute for other nonproliferation efforts but is
crucial for day-to-day, routine assessment of the efficacy of such
efforts. It was of course recognized by the experts that such monitoring
is not a NASA role, yet they wanted to underscore the importance of
monitoring capability as context for any trends toward electricity
production using nuclear technology.

Hydrogen \-- In response to a question about hydrogen, the experts
offered several perspectives. They indicated that there is no widespread
use of hydrogen fuels globally. However, they also indicated that
hydrogen fuels will play a role in the western United States. Along
these lines, the US Department of Energy, under the 2005 Energy Policy
Act, is required to site corridors in western states on federal lands
for electricity transmission, natural gas pipelines, and hydrogen
pipelines. However, gaps of as much as one hundred miles or so exist
between lands held by different agencies (such as the Forest Service,
the BLM, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs). Land use data to assist
agencies in identifying and coordinating land use are needed.

The NCEP has recently discussed hydrogen and sees it unlikely as a
transportation fuel in the short run, largely because biofuels can use
existing infrastructure (fueling stations, transport depots) more
readily.

Biofuels \-- In terms of alternative fuels such as biofuels, it was
point out that these kinds of fuels imply an ever-increasing role for
the agricultural sector of the economy. For example, wind farms are
often sited on agricultural farms; the Congress is under pressure from
the World Trade Organization to reduce ag subsidies; biofuels may emerge
as an alternative fuel of choice in transportation, and carbon
sequestration requires access to large land holdings. The Hewlett
Foundation is underwriting studies of energy opportunities in the ag
sector; the study panel leadership includes Bob Dole and Tom Dashell.
The workshop experts indicated that there is a need to monitor biofuel
production and the weather data that influence biofuel production.

Developing Countries

In developing countries, energy demand is growing at unexpectedly high
rates and in China, India, and Latin America, represents a financially
viable market given sharply rising gross domestic product in these
countries. This trend is the case for both transportation energy and
electricity. Both coal and nuclear power production are the likely
supply sources for electricity in these countries. Hydropower is being
hotly debated in Latin America due to environmental and other concerns.

Maintaining this trend toward increasing energy demand and ability to
pay for energy will nonetheless require further development of the
capacity of these countries' financial markets. It will also require
these countries' governments to support development of these industries
without onerous taxation or regulation. A related issue is how
electricity markets will be structured as they mature in these
countries. For example, will they be based on central power or
distributed generation? Developing countries may choose decentralized
approaches such as distributed generation to get electricity reliability
(as well as adequate supply).

The trend in developing countries is likely to include growth in the
market for biomass, solar, wind, and hydropower as energy sources. At
present, the growth of these energy sources will probably be less than
the growth of coal as the energy source.

Data Visualization and Public Participation

Discussion also focused on public participation in environmental and
natural resources decisionmaking, and in particular, how better to allow
the public to visualize earth science and human effects on resources,
the environment, and ecosystems in both the short- and long-runs. An
example is siting energy infrastructure, for transportation grids,
pipelines, wind farms, or other critical facilities and the problem of
no one want these in their back yard. Yet interconnections \-- for
example, of wind farms to power grids -- have a spatial dimension
related to land use, ecology, housing value, and other parameters. Big
picture visualization informed by accurate and credible (trusted)
underlying data could go far in enabling the public and decisionmakers
to "see" the potential consequences of different alternatives, given
that usually, one of these alternatives ultimately must be chosen. GIS,
community mapping, risk communication -- all of these are ancillary and
require good quality data.

References for the Workshop

Darmstadter, Joel. 2006. "Coal Within a Revised Energy Perspective,"
*Environmental Management,* July, pp*.* 19-22.

Green, Kenneth P. 2006. "Bringing Down Oil and Gas Prices,"
*Environmental Policy Outlook No. 3,* American Enterprise Institute for
Public Policy Research.

Holtberg, Paul and Robert Hirsch. 2003. "Can We Identify Limits to
Worldwide Energy Resources? *Oil and Gas Journal*, 30 June 2003, pp.
20-25.

Naficy, Yasmin. 2005. "Using Satellite Imagery to Locate Energy: How
Technology Transfer will Drive Economic Prosperity," *Petroleum Africa*,
June, pp. 52-56.

National Commission on Energy Policy. 2004. *Ending the Energy
Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's Energy Challenges*
(Washington, DC: National Commission on Energy Policy) at
[www.energycommission.org](http://www.energycommission.org/)

"Sunrise for Renewable Energy?" *The Economist*, 10 December 2005, pp.
18-20.

"The Bottomless Beer Mug: Why the World is Not Running Out of Oil," *The
Economist*, 30 April 2005, pp. 16, 19-20.

Zell, Erica and Jill Engel-Cox. 2005. "Part 1: Overview of Energy Issues
and an Assessment of the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science
Research," prepared for National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
NASA Earth Science Strategy for Energy Management, Subaward Agreement
#CG0416, October 24.

Zell, Erica and Jill Engel-Cox. 2006. "Part 2: Evaluation and
Recommendations on the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science
Research to Energy Issues," prepared for National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, NASA Earth Science Strategy for Energy Management,
Subaward Agreement #CG0416, March 15.

Workshop Attendees

**Joel Darmstadter,** Resources for the Future

**Francisco C. de la Chesnaye**, Chief, Climate Economics Branch, US EPA
(and Principal, Energy Modeling Forum)

**Joe Kruger**, National Commission on Energy Policy

**Michael Toman**, Environment, Energy, and Economic Development
Program, RAND Corporation

**Shalini Vajjhala**, Fellow, Resources for the Future

**Marty Frederick**, Earth Science Applications Division, NASA

**Richard Eckman**, Energy Management Program, Applied Sciences Program,
NASA

**Mollie Drumm**, NASA DEVELOP Intern

**Fred Vukovich**, Chief Atmospheric Scientist, SAIC

**Jim Koziana**, SAIC

**Molly Macauley**, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future