**REPORT TITLE**: Review of Cumulative Impact Assessment Literature and
North Slope Borough

Development Projects.  Special Report No. 5.

**STUDY TITLE**: Cumulative Impacts of Petroleum Development on the
Alaskan Arctic.

CONTRACT NUMBER(S): MMS: 14‑12‑0001‑30058.

SPONSORING OCS REGION: Alaska.

APPLICABLE PLANNING AREA(S): Chukchi Sea; Beaufort Sea.

FISCAL YEAR(S) OF PROJECT FUNDING: 1983.

COMPLETION DATE OF REPORT: February 1985.

COST(S): FY 1983: \$149,967; CUMULATIVE PROJECT COST: \$149,967.

PROJECT MANAGER(S): S. Denslow.

AFFILIATION: Manyard and Partch.

ADDRESS: 800 F Street, Anchorage, Alaska 99501.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR(S)\*: S. Braund, S. Denslow, M. Feldman, D.
Younger.

KEY WORDS: Chukchi Sea; Beaufort Sea; North Slope Borough;
socioeconomics; literature review; cumulative impact; assessments;
development.

ACCESS NUMBER: 30058

**BACKGROUND**: This document is a literature review and annotated
bibliography of selected methods, theories, and approaches for
performing impact assessments of effects of petroleum development and
other industrial projects on social, economic, and cultural systems of
North Slope Borough (NSB) native communities.  The Minerals Management
Service (MMS) will use this document to select an appropriate
methodology for future assessments.

**OBJECTIVES**: (1) To review and annotate environmental assessment
literature; and (2) To determine potential applicability to assessment
of cumulative impacts of oil, gas, and other industrial and community
development projects on NSB communities.

**DESCRIPTION**: The literature review relied on computerized search
services, previously assembled bibliographies, and networking with
others involved in current research.  Geographic scope of the search was
centered on North America, with a focus on methods developed to assess
impacts of modern industrial or resource development projects on Native
American communities.  Literature documenting methods and approaches for
studying impacts of modern industrial development on \"non‑western\"
cultures in Third World nations was also reviewed.

The report describes 58 projects that may be included in future NSB
cumulative impact assessments: eight projects are oil firm development
projects (including Prudhoe Bay) that have already been found
commercially viable; eight projects involve oil discoveries that are
large enough for production, but not commercially viable at current
prices; five projects involve gas discoveries that could be developed if
transportation were available and gas prices were expected to remain
firm; seven are oil and gas exploration projects; four are future lease
sales; and three are non‑oil and gas resource development projects.  The
current NSB capital improvement program, which extends through 1989, is
described in terms of 23 projects which include education, public roads
and streets, housing, water and sewer, solid waste disposal, health,
libraries, power, public safety, airports, communications, industrial
development, and administration.

**SIGNIFICANT CONCLUSIONS**: While it was initially hoped this review
would yield a specific methodology which could be implemented by the MMS
in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale assessments, no such
methodology was uncovered.  Instead, the literature revealed a set of
difficulties which highlighted the inappropriateness of using any one
method to assess effects of large, technologically complex projects on
the NSB.  The review provides a set of six general approaches and
several observations which could help the MMS develop a new framework
for subsequent cumulative impacts analyses:  (1) regional or area‑wide
Environmental Impact Statements (EIS); (2) comprehensive EIS approach;
(3) regional planning approaches; (4) longitudinal monitoring approach;
(5) public inquiry approach; and (6) fiscal analysis.

**STUDY RESULTS**: The literature review is presented in six general
approaches.  The first general approach, [regional or area‑wide
EIS]{.underline}, was exhibited in references from several different
categories.  This approach develops a set of cumulative impact
parameters (land area, employment, economic costs and benefits, etc.),
and then forecasts timing, intensity, and location of impacts under one
or more development scenarios.  The [comprehensive EIS
approach]{.underline}, which was also exhibited in references from
several categories, is similar to the current cumulative impact
methodology used by the MMS.  This approach could be enhanced through
identification of indirect effects and interaction of impact streams
from individual projects and subsequent aggregation.  [Regional planning
approaches]{.underline}, which have been utilized most successfully to
date in environmental rather than socioeconomic impact analyses,
analyzes spatial effects of development through such technologies as
constraint, composite, and overlay mapping.  This approach allows public
input and has potential to create an ongoing process for cumulative
impact management when established within appropriate institutions.  The
potential also exists to be used in concert with geographic information
systems, such as the one being developed by the NSB.  In a [longitudinal
monitoring]{.underline} [approach]{.underline}, data on social,
economic, and cultural conditions are collected before, during, and
after development occurs.  By monitoring key indicators at regular
intervals, both impacts from individual projects and ongoing change that
result from cumulative effects of several projects can be determined.  A
list of sociocultural indicators assembled in the course of reviewing
Alaskan and Canadian literature is presented.  The [public inquiry
approach]{.underline} allows local residents to define for themselves
important cumulative social, economic, and cultural impacts in an open
and often adversarial setting.  This approach has been found appropriate
when native Americans or other indigenous people would be affected. 
Although an OCS lease sale may not have a direct effect on NSB\'s fiscal
situation, cumulative effects of several other land‑based projects would
have a significant effect on NSB revenues.  These revenues, in turn,
provide the tax base upon which local population‑serving capital
projects are based.  These fiscal interrelationships highlight the need
for incorporating a [fiscal analysis]{.underline} as a part of any
assessment of cumulative impacts on the NSB.

**STUDY PRODUCT(S)**: Manyard and Partch, Dames & Moore, and Stephen R.
Braund and Associates.  1985.  Review of Cumulative Impact Assessment
Literature and North Slope Borough Development Projects.  A final report
for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service
Alaska OCS Region, Anchorage, AK.  Social and Economic Studies Program
Special Report No. 5.  Contract No. 14‑12‑0001‑30058.  459 pp.

\*P.I.\'s affiliation may be different than that listed for Project
Manager(s).