## Eastern Region Science Plan

## **Introduction**

The purpose of this science plan is to identify present and future
societal issues that require the support of well-integrated,
interdisciplinary scientific study. It should be implicitly understood
that all of these issues require the support of discipline-based, basic
fundamental research- the cornerstone of USGS science. Furthermore, the
USGS Eastern Region Science Plan should provide a clear, concise linkage
between the science we conduct and Regional and Bureau strategic goals
and priorities so that people actually implementing the USGS mission
understand where they fit into these strategic priorities. This will
result in our scientists being able to more effectively propose, create,
and implement science that addresses the needs of our Federal, State,
and local government, and non-government partners and stakeholders.

In order to identify and serve our stakeholders and partners, the USGS
vision, mission, and strategic direction focus on responsiveness and
customer service, underscoring the application of science to customer,
partner, and other stakeholder needs. This vision and mission direct the
combined expertise of our many scientific capabilities and define our
commitment to pursuing an integrated approach to providing science for a
changing world.

**Eastern Region Characteristics**

The Eastern Region of the United States is characterized by numerous,
high-density, urban population centers, many of which are located along
or in close proximity to shorelines. The geographic configuration of the
coastlines and populated cities, bounded by the hardwood forests and
Appalachian Mountains to the west, has led to the development of social,
cultural, and even physical features that make the Eastern Region of the
United States unique. These features include:

Continued expansion of our coastal and riverine urban centers into rural
areas of the Region will impact our ability to use and enjoy our energy
and living resources while challenging our ability to protect the
welfare of our citizens from natural disasters and other health risks. A
delicate balance must exist between resource extraction and use to
support continued expansion, and ecosystem protection strategies for
preserving many of our valued natural living resources- as well as
promoting human health and the overall quality of life. These management
practices rely on:

The major societal issues that our science addresses within the Eastern
Region include:

All of these issues have significant impact on the quality of human life
within the eastern region of the United States, and require sound
science support in order to be effectively understood, managed, and
mitigated.

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### 

### Societal Issues and Integrated Science within the Eastern Region

# **Urban Dynamics -- A paradigm of changing population centers, agricultural lands, and natural places**

The landscape of the Eastern Region is changing rapidly. The shifting
and spreading of urban population centers in the Eastern Region have had
a major impact on human-induced land surface change. These changes in
land use and land cover have significant consequences to ecosystem
health and sustainability and influence economic development and
environmental quality at multiple scales. Human-induced and natural land
surface transformations plus regional climate variability affect
ecosystem processes; habitat fragmentation; surface and ground water
quality and availability; biogeochemical cycles; vector-borne disease
propagation; invasive species introduction; natural resource
accessibility; and vulnerability to natural hazards. The following
issues have been identified as priorities for the Eastern Region Science
Plan.

-   **Water quality and availability for humans and ecosystems.**

**Discussion:** The urbanizing areas of the Eastern U.S. are increasing
their strain on the Region's available water resources. Most water
supplies in the Eastern U.S. are developed locally from drainage basins
that encompass the cities or are directly adjacent to them, in contrast
to their Western counterparts. This is largely due to the greater
availability of water in the east, which many considered to be
inexhaustible in the not-to-distant past. However, the increased
population, the environmental and physical constraints of water
withdrawal, the availability of water of acceptable quality for water
supply the need for waste assimilation, and the competition for instream
ecological uses have all placed water availability in question. Many of
our major urban areas and their adjacent suburban regions are facing
these questions of water supply. Most areas in the Eastern U.S. and
throughout the country lack the basic analysis of a water budget,
identifying the major components of the hydrologic cycle and explaining
the current and projected human and ecological needs for freshwater. One
of most pressing questions to aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, and
water resource and wildlife managers is understanding the freshwater
flow regime that must be maintained in order to sustain the aquatic
community. This is often a major piece of missing information for any
water budget analysis. This question extends from streams and rivers to
wetlands, lakes and estuaries, where resources managers need to
understand the freshwater requirements necessary to maintain a healthy
ecological community. In many cases, fishes, amphibians, birds and
water-dependent vegetation are dependent for feeding, growth, or
successful reproduction upon seasonally variable water levels, water
flows, or temporarily dry shoreline conditions. Water managers need to
be informed about how periodic water releases can mimic natural
processes and sustain normal ecosystem functions while maintaining
appropriate conditions for navigation and public recreation. In
addition, the urban areas of the east are faced with a multitude of
water quality problems that effect availability. Some of our coastal
cities face saltwater intrusion problems. In virtually all of our urban
centers, the groundwater of the surficial aquifer system is impacted by
contaminants that increase the costs of utilizing that resource for
water supply. And, in most urban areas, impacts to streams and surficial
aquifers from contaminated runoff and seepage limits the ability of
those resources to support a healthy ecological community.

**Actions:** The USGS Eastern Region should demonstrate the benefits of
a multi-disciplinary investigation into water availability and ecosystem
health. In order to do this, the eastern region should select up to five
priority areas, where appropriated funding can be brought to bear to
support a team of scientists that will scope and execute a plan of study
to address the areas' identified water availability needs. Criteria for
selecting areas should include: identified water availability stresses,
active involvement of cooperating agencies in water supply issues,
identified ecological stresses or vulnerability of ecological health,
and present USGS involvement in the study area.

For water budget analysis, it is recommended to build from the efforts
of the MAFPE workshop on Urban Growth and target specific areas where we
can work with planning agencies. The MAFPE partners Urban Growth
workgroup would propose that water budget work be conducted in one of
three priority areas: the counties to the west of the Washington D.C.
metropolitan center in VA and WV; in Baltimore County, MD and adjacent
areas, and in the counties north and west of the Philadelphia
metropolitan center. Within EPA Region 5, NAWQA is conducting an urban
gradient study centered on the city of Chicago, which could serve as a
foundation for additional work. Planners in all of these areas have
expressed concern over the future of water availability and the sprawl
that is impacting on the resource.

# **Habitat Fragmentation (deforestation, corridors)**

**Issues:** Natural habitats are being converted, degraded or eliminated
by expanding human population centers, logging, extraction of mineral
resources, and industrial activities. Such changes mean that the
ecosystem goods (e.g., certain species) and services (e.g., nutrient
assimilation) that were derived from the original ecosystem may no
longer be available. Land conversion and habitat loss results in native
species becoming increasingly isolated in "island habitats."
Fragmentation of habitats into small patches can reduce areas for
wildlife species that require larger, connected patches. As a result of
fragmentation, amphibians, reptiles, migratory birds, and mammals have
been locally extirpated or put at risk by the isolation. If normal
watershed linkages are broken, fish populations may become isolated.
Reproductive isolation results in the loss of essential genetic
diversity that normally maintains locally viable fish and wildlife
populations. Changing land use reduces native vegetation and often
promotes the proliferation of invasive species. An increasing risk is
the displacement of native pollinators that are vital to sustaining
natural plant communities and adjacent croplands.

Decision makers require unbiased information on the ecological
consequences of the increasing fragmentation of native habitats and
communities. Research is needed to determine the causal mechanisms
underlying populations and ecosystem responses to habitat reduction.
Natural resource managers require synthesized data, management options,
and visualization tools to understand relationships between habitat
quality and quantity and population viability. Studies are needed to
quantify the role of scaling in understanding and forecasting the
spatial and temporal responses of biological systems to habitat
fragmentation. Models are needed that will enhance our ability to define
spatial and functional habitat requirements. Knowledge must be developed
and applied to sustain functional habitat units and wildlife corridors
that will protect populations of key plants and animals. We need to
improve methods and increase the use of genetics and molecular tools for
understanding and maintaining populations, particularly how the size,
shape, and location of "island" ecosystems and wildlife corridors may or
may not function as reservoirs of genetic diversity.

**Actions**: Additional funding is required to address the multiplicity
of issues associated with habitat fragmentation. Development of specific
study topics and area priorities should be considered using a phased
approach that may include the following:

-   Focus existing interdisciplinary teams to study habitat
    fragmentation of Appalachian hardwood forests, including development
    of more reliable indicators to characterize patterns of change

-   Encourage interdisciplinary working groups to enhance remote sensing
    techniques to quantify landscape attributes, and model and predict
    temporal and spatial changes

-   Summarize and synthesize knowledge of how urbanizing landscapes,
    including disturbance to native vegetation, geomorphology and soils,
    may impact community homeostasis and may encourage the establishment
    and spread of invasive and nuisance species

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-   Integrate knowledge among hydrologists and biologists on factors
    that may limit mussel, fish, amphibian and avian populations among
    increasingly isolated and degraded river, wetland, and estuarine
    habitats

-   Enhanced collaborations between remote sensing and GIS technologists
    that will enable mangers to better visualize and quantify the
    changing landscape and improve land management decision-making

-   Conduct a workshop to develop the protocols for assessment of the
    ecological effects of dam removal

-   USGS scientists need to work with other Federal and academic
    investigators to incorporate social and economic information into
    long-term monitoring and adaptive management approaches

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-   **River and Coastal Processes**

**Issues:** The primary issues associated with coasts are:

-   Sea-level rise (from melting glaciers)

-   Subsidence (ground water, oil and gas withdrawal, sediment
    starvation, compaction)

-   Slope failure / tsunamis - offshore (disassociation of gas hydrates)

-   Erosion & deposition (jetties, levees, groins, breakwaters,
    dredging, hardening)

# Sedimentation changes from rivers (increases or decreases)

-   Contamination (pathogens, trace elements, nutrients, human-made
    organics)

-   Landslides -- off-shore (e.g. Puerto Rico)

-   Habitat alteration (natural and from resource extraction)

The primary issues associated with rivers include:

-   Channelization (keeping river within narrow bounds)

-   Increases or decreases in sedimentation rates

-   Runoff (usually markedly increased from impervious surfaces)

-   Dams (prevent anadromous fish from migrating, prevent sediment from
    moving further downstream changing channel characteristics)

-   River flow changes

## Water temperature increases (cutting trees and shrubs that would otherwise shade a stream, industrial cooling discharge)

## Habitat alteration

## Perhaps the greatest challenge associated with coasts and rivers is the need to educate people that 1) coast lines and river beds are naturally dynamic - not fixed; they change, sometimes dramatically, as a result of natural processes, including storms, 2) by trying to protect a coast line or river, human intervention may actually make the situation worse, as natural processes may be disturbed, and 3) many species have adapted to changing coasts and rivers, so that human-induced changes may substantially impact indigenous species. Perhaps the greatest scientific need is to more fully understand the physical processes impacting coastal areas, including sediment erosion, transport, and deposition. Additional research is needed to make predictive models quantitative, not just qualitative, so that issues of vulnerability can be more completely and reliably described.

# **Actions:** The forthcoming summary document from a New England workshop could be used as a basis for prioritizing research activities. These priorities must include consideration of 1) programmatic priorities, 2) scientific merit, 3) customer needs, 4) interdisciplinary collaboration, and 5) partnership development. Consideration must also be given to the uniqueness of the work and the potential for more work of the same type. Is there the necessary scientific and database infrastructure in place for the work? If not, then is this a new scientific direction that is worthy of the necessary infrastructure investment? Also, is the outcome assured? If not, is the effort worth the risk? High risk research should be undertaken if the potential payoff is high. There are two primary areas in the Eastern US where this work could take place: 

1.  Coastal North Carolina -- based on draft Action Plan, July 2002.
    Further development of the Action Plan within the USGS is occurring
    and will likely provide useful guidance for future work.

2.  Coastal New England -- based on workshop held in early January 2003.
    The results of this workshop are being prepared and are also likely
    to provide useful guidance for future work.

Ongoing efforts that are high priorities for coastal and river studies
include:

3.  Gulf of Mexico

4.  Mississippi River

5.  Great Lakes

In order to successfully move forward, these three efforts require:

-   Development of standardized, interdisciplinary databases

-   Strong interdisciplinary science leadership and direction that is
    well supported

-   A cogent plan for integrated science implementation

# **Urban expansion and land use change** 

**Issues:** Population growth and migration patterns are recognized
drivers of human-induced land surface change. Since the 1960s, the
population of the United States has increased from 179 to 281 million
with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting a population of 383 million by
the year 2050. This increase will lead to significant changes in land
use that will have major consequences on ecosystem health and
sustainability. Increased national affluence, combined with ease of
movement, is generating a population shift that will have an impact on
some of our most critical and currently undisturbed ecosystems as
migration increases from urban to rural communities. New tools,
methodologies, and interdisciplinary approaches must be developed to
strengthen the capacity to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and
to understand the potential consequences of urban expansion. An improved
interdisciplinary understanding of the causes and mechanisms that
underlie current and past land surface changes is required to develop an
ability to predict future changes.

**Actions:** To evaluate the complex interrelationships between urban
expansion in the Eastern Region and its impact upon landscape
characteristics requires a multi-pronged approach. The science and
technological objectives will focus on the following priorities:

-   Select several urban locations within the Eastern Region, chosen by
    a multidisciplinary team for their applicability for integrated
    science issues. Map the extent of urban development around these
    centers and the condition of the surrounding land surface at
    multiple spatial and temporal scales. Monitor and document changes
    in the land surface to determine how physical alterations of
    habitats influence biodiversity, habitat integrity, and contaminant
    flux and water availability.

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-   Using selected urban study areas, identify the major anthropogenic
    forces driving urban growth and sprawl development. Identify
    episodes of combined driving forces that have specific spatial and
    temporal signatures and incorporate them into urban growth models.

-   Develop criteria and indicators of land surface condition. Develop
    remote sensing and field techniques to improve the accuracy and
    efficiency of characterizing the geologic and biotic properties of
    the landscape, as well as the study of ecosystem structure and
    function.

-   Advance the use and technical development of GIS and
    three-dimensional visualization as tools for landscape assessment
    and for incorporating spatial data into geologic, hydrologic and
    biologic modeling processes.

-   Develop GIS-based decision support tools that integrate earth
    science information and economics in order to model complex human
    and natural systems related to specific environmental flux or risk
    issues. Develop community-based participatory procedures that
    involve scientists, citizens, stakeholders, and users. Determine the
    usefulness of science in land management decision-making.

# **II. Ecosystem and Natural Resources-- Understanding natural variation and human-induced change**

-   **Climate change**

**Issues:** Climate change is normal, and has the potential for
significantly impacting society and ecosystems. It can occur rapidly
(\<10 yrs) or slowly (\>100+ yrs); it can be minor or substantial; and
it can occur frequently or infrequently. Because ecosystems depend on
climate, ecosystems change as climate changes. Scientists have
documented climate change on scales of hundreds, thousands, and millions
of years. Since the processes that cause climate change are not well
understood, it is still very difficult to distinguish natural from
human-induced climate change. However, understanding the magnitude and
variability of potential climate change (whether natural or
human-induced) is necessary to enable society to adapt to potential
change. Reliable assessments of past climate changes and subsequent
ecosystem changes are based on studies of the sediment and rock record
and their contained fossils, and geochemistry.

General climate change issues for the USGS to study in the Eastern
Region include:

-   Documenting past climate and ecosystem changes from sediment and
    rock records (on land, estuaries, coastal, and off-shore, including
    linkages between on- and off-shore)

-   Understanding the processes that cause climate change and their
    thresholds

-   Understanding the potential effects of climate change on the
    landscape, hydrologic cycles, ecosystems, and society

Specific effects of climate change that could affect the Eastern Region
include:

-   Sea-level rise and impact on coastal/nearshore resources

-   Lake-level changes (Great Lakes and others)

-   Precipitation changes in amounts, frequency, and seasonality,
    affecting stream water flow, and the ground water table

-   Seasonal temperature variation and magnitude changes

-   Increased numbers of rare weather events -- including droughts,
    floods, storms, heat waves, cold waves, hurricanes etc

-   Effects of climate change and the implications for management of
    public lands,

-   Stressed or changing ecosystems

-   The cost and ability of society to adjust to climate change

-   The potential importance of gas hydrates (methane) as a driver of
    climate change

**Actions:** Major actions necessary to study climate change in the
Eastern Region include the following:

-   Focus studies on areas with high sensitivity to climate processes,
    ecosystems vulnerable to climate forcing (by fresh-water flow,
    precipitation, temperature, coastal processes, nutrient and sediment
    flux), and high-resolution paleoclimate records, documented using
    long, continuous sediment cores, especially Holocene records.
    Initial research focus areas could include, but are not limited to
    Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, the Great Lakes, Tampa Bay, the Gulf
    of Mexico, South Florida.

-   Integrate patterns of climate variability patterns with biological
    response through biological research and monitoring programs on
    endangered species, biodiversity, habitat vulnerability, water
    resources research on hydrological variability, and geographic
    research on land use change and its impacts (including impacts on
    regional climate).

-   Link on-shore and off-shore sediment core records; understanding the
    processes of erosion and deposition in different settings;
    determining corresponding ecosystem history.

-   Understand the earth's natural systems as they drive climate change
    and the resiliency of these systems to natural and human-induced
    impacts, especially at the on-set and offset of recent climatic
    changes such as the little ice age, and the Younger Dryas.

-   Establish partnerships with one or more climate modeling groups
    (i.e. Penn State University, NASA-GISS, others) to conduct
    model-date simulations and evaluate future change.

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-   **Fish and Wildlife Health**

**Issues:** Disease is a natural part of every ecosystem. The health of
fish and wildlife populations may be compromised by contact with
naturally occurring pathogenic bacteria, fungi, viruses, protozoa, toxic
algae, and a variety of parasites. Susceptibility to disease may be
increased when populations expand and competition for space and food is
increased. The development and spread of new and emerging diseases in
fish and wildlife may also result when human activities degrade water,
soil, and air quality. Eutrophication, contaminants, pesticides, and
changing climate may cause or exacerbate disease. Altered habitats
encourage the proliferation of invasive and nuisance species, some of
which may be disease carriers. The spread of pathogens and parasites
among domesticated livestock, pets, and wildlife is an increasing risk
as a result of the fragmentation of natural habitats and urbanization.
Hatchery fishes may transmit diseases to wild stocks in marine and
freshwaters. The widespread use of antibiotics and drugs to treat farm
animals and in aquaculture operations may create strains of resistant
microorganisms with increased pathogenic potential to wild stocks and
other species. The increased transportation and movement of people,
plants, animals and materials worldwide, whether intentional or
accidental, is increasing the likelihood of spreading existing diseases
and the emergence of new wildlife health risks. The most vulnerable taxa
may be threatened, endangered, and rare species that have limited
genetic resiliency and lack disease resistance.

A paramount goal is the prevention and control of fish and wildlife
diseases among native fish and wildlife populations, especially
threatened and endangered species. Also needed, is the rapid detection
of new and emerging diseases, including new molecular and genetic
technologies to characterize pathogens and to understand the
physiological and genetic basis of disease resistance. Improved methods
are needed for the monitoring of existing and emerging diseases, and
understanding the causes and consequences of disease spread to fish and,
wildlife populations. A better understanding is needed on the role of
natural and anthropogenic stressors in disease occurrence and severity
in coral reefs, including the potential synergistic effects of multiple
stressors. Hydrologic and geomorphic features should be tested for
correlations with disease occurrence and spread. Significant disease
threats to fish and wildlife currently include West Nile virus, avian
vacuolar myelinopathy, chronic wasting disease, avian cholera, foot and
mouth disease, diseases of amphibians and corals, the
*Pfiesteria*/*Aphanomyces* complex, *Mycobacteria*, and antibiotic
resistant microbes.

**Actions**: There are immediate needs for increased funding that can
bring multi-disciplinary approaches to disease research related to:

-   Expansion of existing studies by USGS Biology, Mapping, and the
    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that are evaluating and
    forecasting the spread and threat of West Nile virus among multiple
    species.

-   Improve the early detection, accuracy, speed, and capacity of
    diagnostic tests for chronic wasting disease and develop a
    Geographical Information System (GIS) that can explain and model
    disease dispersal and patterns of disease/host interactions.

-   Developing vaccines for WNV and other disease agents, followed by
    mapping, GIS and modeling techniques to measure their effectiveness
    among impacted species and landscapes.

-   Understanding and modeling the potential threat, introduction, and
    spread of foot and mouth disease.

-   Threats of disease transmission and spread to natural populations
    resulting from artificial propagation and restocking of fish and
    wildlife populations.

-   Efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate causes of disease in
    corals in Florida and the Virgin Islands as outlined in the draft
    *USGS Coral Reef Strategic Plan*. Biologists and geologists need to
    collaborate on techniques to identify physiological stress and
    impairment in corals, as early warning signs prior to disease
    manifestation.

Investigators are encouraged to work with partners to incorporate social
and economic information into the knowledge base for the management and
control of existing and emerging diseases in fish and wildlife.

-   **Eutrophication and hypoxia**

**Issue:** Eutrophication of streams, lakes, estuaries, and coastal
areas is one of the greatest threats to the integrity of aquatic and
marine communities, and the problem is growing throughout the eastern
U.S. Nutrients are vital to plant growth, but in excess, nutrients such
as nitrate and phosphorous may cause significant water quality
degradation by stimulating photosynthetic growth. Eutrophication occurs
when a body of water is enriched with organic material as a result of
enhanced growth of plants. Overabundance of algae can reduce oxygen
levels, leading to hypoxia or anoxia, and the creation of dead zones
where low oxygen levels are harmful to fish and shellfish. Certain forms
of nitrogen are toxic to humans and other animals.

Sources of excess nutrients include runoff from fertilized lawns and
croplands, wastewater plants, septic systems, animal feedlot operations,
industrial discharges, and atmospheric deposition from burning fossil
fuels. Synthetic inorganic fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels
account for the major component of nutrient input to receiving waters.
In marine ecosystems, nitrogen is of primary importance in both causing
and controlling eutrophication, while eutrophication in freshwater
systems is largely due to excess phosphorous. Impacts of eutrophication
include loss of biodiversity, harmful algal blooms, fish kills,
shellfish poisoning, loss of submerged aquatic vegetation, and
destruction of coral reefs. Particular attention has been focused on
hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and the role that nutrient loads,
particularly nitrate, originating from the upper Mississippi River Basin
play in sustaining the hypoxia. Another relatively severe problem area
is the mid-Atlantic coast. As described by the National Research Council
(2000), understanding and preventing nutrient over-enrichment is
extremely difficult. Nutrients are contributed from multiple, mostly
non-point sources. The complexity of nutrient sources, fates and
effects, coupled with associated socioeconomic and political issues of
broad geographic scope, will require the participation of an extremely
varied group of stakeholders in finding solutions through a long-term
adaptive process.

Much remains to be learned about the geographic extent and severity of
eutrophication, understanding thresholds of response to excess nutrients
in large and small systems, and developing nutrient control strategies.
A comprehensive, strategy of adaptive management, monitoring, and
research is required to understand, predict and control eutrophication.
An interdisciplinary management team is currently in place that is
looking to coordinate the efforts of the USGS on the nutrient issues in
the Upper Mississippi River basin. In addition, there is a federal
Interagency Hypoxia Taskforce that has developed plans for study for the
Gulf of Mexico hypoxia issues.

**Actions:** Integrated, multidisciplinary USGS efforts are needed in
combination with shared the budgets and complementary science plans of
other Federal and State partners in order to:

-   Implement consistent standards of data collection, quality control,
    data management, and information dissemination

-   Integrate aquatic nutrient data between USGS Water and Biology
    disciplines

-   Develop accurate estimates of nutrient inputs to lakes, rivers,
    wetlands, estuaries, and coasts

-   Understand nutrient transformation and flux within and between
    sediments and overlying waters

-   Investigate the effects of modified hydrology (including flood-plain
    connectivity) on nitrogen removal and phosphorus retention along the
    rivers

-   Assess the impacts of agricultural practices on nitrogen dynamics in
    surrounding river basins, with special attention to karst landscapes

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-   Evaluate and explain the variable susceptibility of water bodies
    that differ by location, salinity, geology, hydrodynamics, and
    biology

-   Develop indicators of threshold response, susceptibility, and
    region-wide classification schemes

# Compile comprehensive syntheses that would enable modeling of the relative roles of nitrogen and phosphorous in fresh, brackish and saltwater environments and how they impact biotic communities at all levels, from phytoplankton to humans

# **Invasive and nuisance species**

**Issues:** Introduced species are an imminent threat to living
resources throughout the eastern U.S. Terrestrial, freshwater, and
marine habitats are being altered by the proliferation of invasive and
pest/nuisance species. Native flora and fauna are being displaced and
the fundamental structure and function of ecosystems are being disrupted
by species of foreign origin and by species of domestic origin that have
spread to areas outside of their native range. Some species have become
overabundant in parts of their native range and are now considered pests
or nuisance species because of they may overgraze native vegetation and
alter the characteristics of urban and rural landscapes. Thousands of
invasive species, ranging from microbes to mammals, now inhabit our
public lands and waters and their geographical expansion is rapid.
Urbanization and the disturbance of natural habitat tend to aggravate
the introduction and spread of introduced species. The changing climate
is expected to open new regions to invasions. Nutria, bighead carp,
silver carp, hemlock wooly adelgid, melaleuca, phragmites, and zebra
mussels are of special concern in the east. The impact of these and
other invasives on natural areas may be permanent because economic and
environmental factors may limit control options.

USGS and its partners should produce a comprehensive initial assessment
of the current status of invasive species and an effective means of
surveillance that will track their introduction and spread. The
assessment and surveillance system should include appropriate response
strategies for DOI lands and waters. Prevention is the most important
part of managing invasive species and USGS should provide a leadership
role in providing information and technologies for Federal and State
efforts to combat the introduction of non-native species; hence,
improved models are required for predicting whether a species is likely
to be introduced, to survive, and to become established, and how the
structure and function of the ecosystem will be effected. Web-based
electronic information databases and networks are needed for rapid
response to new invasives and to accelerate sharing, reporting, tracking
and mapping invasives. USGS should enhance the development and
application of specialized remote observational tools for quantifying
the spread of invasives, evaluating risks, and assessing control
options. A comprehensive understanding is needed on how urbanizing
landscapes impact native flora and fauna and may encourage the
introduction and growth of invasive and pest/nuisance species.

**Actions:** Research efforts should focus on developing basic
understanding, tools and strategies. Costs must be shared and leveraged
among multi- state and Federal agencies for the following activities:

-   Early detection and swift action to invasive species introductions,
    including the efficient dissemination of information about response
    and treatment protocols

-   Improved monitoring and electronic mapping of the spread of invasive
    species

-   Focus on Parks, Refuges, and public lands, including investigations
    on invasive and nuisance species in the Appalachian hardwood
    forests, the Great Lakes, wetland, and estuarine habitats

-   Testing and evaluating physical, chemical, and biological control
    and eradication options for invasives

-   Develop and model techniques to assess the risk of invasions and the
    vulnerability of various habitats to invasions, including the role
    of habitat disturbance in the spread of invasive species

-   Special attention should be given to treatment technologies for
    control of invasive species in ballast water and packing materials

Investigators should incorporate social and economic information and an
adaptive management framework for the management and control of invasive
and pest/nuisance species.

-   **Biodiversity, Habitat Integrity and Restoration**

**Issues:** Sustaining the integrity of native biological populations
and natural habitats, whereby biodiversity, productivity, and ecosystem
services and functions are maintained, is vital to recreational and
commercial activities, cultural values, and the Nation's economy. Our
society is dependent on basic life-support goods and services performed
by natural ecosystems, including regulating climate, mitigating floods
and drought, protecting shorelines from erosion, purifying the air and
water, detoxifying and decomposing wastes, and pollinating crops and
natural vegetation. Understanding patterns of change in the Nation's
biological resources and maintaining and restoring the Nation's natural
biological wealth are critical to the stewardship responsibilities of
Federal, State, and Local organizations. Urbanization, excess nutrients
and contaminants, invasive species, and global warming are changing and
degrading natural systems. Human-caused changes in the morphology of
rivers, streams, wetlands; aquatic acidification; dam building and
removal have all resulted in degraded and altered habitats. Many species
have gone extinct and any others are now threatened with extinction, and
the primary cause is habitat loss and degradation.

Anthropogenic change must be understood in the context of natural
environmental variability. The fundamental nature and long-term impact
of these changes must be evaluated based on the best available
scientific, as well as social and economic, information. When deemed
necessary for the long-term benefit of the Nation, decisions may be made
to stop, slow, or mitigate changes to natural systems. Sustaining and
restoring the biological wealth of the Nation depends on a fundamental
knowledge of how ecosystems function, including associations with human
activities. Basic biogeochemical processes, energy flow, and species
interactions must be understood. The response of ecosystems to multiple
stressors and various disturbance scenarios must be modeled and
forecasts made and validated.

USGS activities that address issues related to biodiversity, habitat
integrity, and restoration should focus on service to DOI partners and
secondarily to other Federal, State, and Local stakeholders. Knowledge
of how natural and anthropogenic factors influence species composition,
community structure and function, energy flow, biogeochemical cycling
and food web interactions is fundamental to resource decision-making.
USGS service should include development and application of innovative
physical, chemical and biological assessment and monitoring tools and
techniques for estimation of population and community attributes and
changes in terrestrial, aquatic and marine habitats.

**Actions:** Cost sharing with stakeholders, and the collective
expertise of USGS and our scientific partners are needed. Priority
issues, priority habitats, and integrated methodologies must be
identified by theme-based workshops (e.g., for restoration topics) in
order to:

-   Identify and describe early warning indicators of declining
    ecosystem health

-   Provide rapid (real-time) detection of physical and chemical
    parameters and incipient changes in ecosystem structure and function

-   Enhance the use of paleoecological tools to evaluate ecosystem
    change prior to anthropogenic impacts

-   Identify ecosystem stress by improved understanding of physical,
    chemical, and biological linkages among lakes, rivers, estuaries,
    and coastal landscapes, including reef ecosystems

-   Enhance design of monitoring projects to evaluate change, correlate
    change with selected environmental parameters, and determine the
    cause or causes of the change; establish additional ecosystem
    reference sites, established monitoring networks, and identify
    appropriate indicators of ecosystem health and integrity

-   Develop more hypothesis-driven experimental approaches to evaluate
    restoration techniques and practices to improve the scientific basis
    for the species restoration and for the rehabilitation of lakes,
    rivers, streams, riparian habitats, wetlands, and coral reefs

-   Explain the relation of minimum stream flow and variable water
    levels to the population and recruitment dynamics of native mussels,
    crayfishes, and fishes; determine how food webs, fish behavior,
    movements, and population structures change in highly managed
    rivers; and develop fisheries and ecological response information to
    help guide dam management and removal decisions

-   In partnership with the Minerals Management Service and NOAA,
    evaluate benthic and pelagic community dynamics across the Gulf of
    Mexico, including the health and vulnerability of benthic and
    pelagic communities as potentially influenced by destructive fishing
    practices and offshore oil and gas activities

-   Evaluate how key species such as horseshoe crabs, vertebrate and
    invertebrate herbivores and large predatory fishes influence the
    dynamics of coastal ecosystems

-   Firmly establish the USGS as the scientific lead in a multiagency,
    integrated science effort focused on restoration, biodiversity, and
    habitat integrity within the Great Lakes region, as outlined in the
    *Great Lakes Annex 2001*

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-   Determine the role and function of protected areas such as Parks and
    Refuges in Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands as reservoirs of
    genetic diversity, spawning and nursery grounds, and sources of
    replenishment for key species

-   Trophic and ecosystem models, predictive tools and management
    options are needed to understand and protect the health and
    productivity of bay coastal, coral reef, and benthic systems

-   Determine how human activities modify components and processes and
    how modified ecosystems can be restored and managed

-   Develop tools needed to improve passage of migratory fishes

-   Develop knowledge about the present and past condition and status
    and trends of biological resources and patterns of change in their
    condition through time

-   Resource management requires that USGS work with partners to
    incorporate social and economic information into decision support
    and expert systems

# **Energy and Mineral Resource Extraction**

**Issues:** Resource extraction and utilization (both current and past),
if not properly remediated and regulated can have serious deleterious
effects on human and wildlife habitat, water quality, and air quality,
including greenhouse gases. The issue is, how can USGS science be used
to help remediate past environmental problems and to prevent potential
future environmental problems from resource (coal, oil & gas, metallic
and non-metallic) recovery and utilization? Energy resource commodities
may also be useful in areas other than the production of energy. For
example, studies are underway to determine the ability of coal to
sequester carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. Alternate
potential uses should be evaluated.

Some of the issues related to oil and gas production and coal mining and
utilization include:

-   Coal -- acid drainage, surface water contamination by Fe, Mn, and
    others

    -   Altered aquifers

    -   Coal quality (including sulfur, mercury, arsenic)

    -   Landscape alteration (strip mining, mountain top removal)

    -   Subsidence (underground mining, production of oil and gas)

    -   Increased sedimentation

    -   Carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and mercury releases to the
        environment

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-   Oil and gas -- produced waters (including salt and radium)

-   Coal-bed methane -- produced waters, methane migration, methane in
    the atmosphere

-   Natural gas hydrates -- a potential resource? Potential effects on
    climate change?

Environmental remediation guidelines often did not exist in the early
days of metal, coal, and other commodity (e.g. phosphate, aggregate)
mining. Some long abandoned mines have contaminated the local
environment with acid and metals, and have been contaminating local
water supplies for decades. Understanding the details of the
geoenvironmental processes that occur at an abandoned mine complex is
critical for developing appropriate remediation and monitoring plans.

**Actions:** Through on-going participation with the Eastern Mine
Drainage Federal Consortium (a special interest group that is
particularly focused on environmental issues related to coal mining in
the East), and an internal USGS workshop on the Appalachians, several
on-going projects are addressing most of the top research topics. In
addition, there is on-going work on Coal Quality, the environmental
impacts on subsurface systems, the health effects of toxic organic
compounds from coal, and methods to reduce the impacts of carbon dioxide
emissions. There are opportunities to expand integrated research on the
effects of coal mining on hydrologic systems, ecosystems and their
components.

Identifying and assessing the environmental impacts of past metal mining
is being conducted using a multiple project approach from developing
mineral environmental models, researching the aqueous geoenvironmental
aspects of past mining, developing new methods for studying elements in
natural and contaminated settings, characterizing geochemical baselines,
and including environmental geoenvironmental studies of specific mined
areas in the East.

# **III. Human Health and Safety**

**Contaminants (groundwater. surface water, sediment)**

**Discussion:** The issues surrounding contaminants of surface and
ground water and sediment are extremely broad and the text of this
discussion is only intended to present an overview of contaminant issues
in the Eastern Region and a broad approach to address them. The aquatic
environment of Eastern Region is effected by contaminants from the
following categories of compounds: nutrients, major ions, trace metals,
synthetic organic compounds (including, but not limited to, VOCs, base
neutrals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, anthropogenic hormones, and an
array of other "emerging contaminants"), radionuclides, and pathogens.
Significant portions of the Eastern United States has been settled and
industrialized for the last two centuries, giving rise to long-term
impacts from anthropogenic sources of these contaminants. The issues
related to nutrients and eutrophication, as well as pathogens are
covered in other sections of this plan and will not be discussed further
here. The Eastern Region has evaluated the other contaminants listed in
this section and finds that our most pressing issues are associated with
two trace metals, and with the category of compounds that we refer to as
"emerging contaminants".

-   **Arsenic contamination**

**Issues:** There has long been concern over arsenic occurrence and
distribution and its effects on human health. Arsenic is naturally
present in some ground waters because it tends to be one of the more
soluble trace elements, and therefore in publicly supplied drinking
water that relies on those ground water sources and also because of the
large and growing numbers of documented cases of arsenic-induced cancer
after ingestion from drinking water. This subject has been receiving
increased attention in recent years as regulatory agencies debate the
safe drinking water standards for the element. Arsenic in ground water
is also a concern to domestic supply wells, which have historically
received little attention in terms of monitoring and regulation. Arsenic
is naturally occurring in glauconitic formations, such as organic-rich
clays and shales, and in sandstones. Its widespread environmental
distribution is partly attributed to anthropogenic mobilization of
arsenic by historical use as a pesticide in orchards and from mining
impacts in both hard rock and coalmines. It is a human health concern
because it can contribute to skin and bladder cancer. The National
Research Council issued a report in 1999 recommending lowering the
maximum contaminant level (MCL) allowed in drinking water from 50 ug/l
to 10 ug/l or less. In addition to its known and suspected health
effects and its wide spread occurrence and distribution, arsenic is a
concern because of its chemical behavior. Arsenic can exist in multiple
species and is geologically mobile in different acidities and redox
environments; however, the distribution and mobility of the species are
not all well documented. This mobility poses significant questions for
the treatment and removal of arsenic, as the different species do not
respond equally to various treatment options. Finally, methylated
organoarsenic compounds are known to exist and be highly toxic, but
little occurrence and distribution data exists for them. A small number
of very recent studies have begun documenting bioaccumulation of arsenic
in various shellfish, worms, bottom-dwelling fish, and other aquatic
biota. Arsenic has been identified as a significant drinking water
quality concern in many states throughout the Eastern Region and many
regulatory agencies have sought technical advice and monitoring from
Bureau scientists.

**Capabilities:** The USGS possesses specific expertise and analytical
capability for the study of arsenic in the environment that affords us
unique opportunities for future studies. These include:

-   USGS has the analytical methods for the full suite of arsenic
    species, including Arsenic III+, Arsenic V+, and organoarsenics.

-   Arsenic data has been collected by sensitive methods since the
    mid-1970s, providing a high degree of reliability in this data. All
    of the data is stored in and available from extensive databases
    maintained at the USGS.

-   The USGS has the geochemists and other scientists with extensive
    experience in studying arsenic in the environment and relating this
    information to public health scientists and resource managers. The
    USGS Arsenic Studies Group is presented on the website at:
    <http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/Arsenic/>

-   The National Water Quality Assessment Program has completed and
    published a national study on arsenic occurrence in ground water,
    utilizing retrospective data. All of the information is presented on
    the NAWWQA website at <http://co.water.usgs.gov/trace/arsenic/>

-   Extensive work on arsenic in ground water has been accomplished
    through the Federal-State Cooperative Water Investigations Program,
    which points us to the higher occurrence areas in the Eastern Region
    for future work.

-   The USGS Energy Program maintains an extensive database of arsenic
    bearing minerals and occurrence in coal that will help to focus on
    areas of future concern.

-   Significant work has been accomplished or is underway on arsenic in
    ground water in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine, and
    throughout the Appalachian coal region states

**Actions:** The USGS needs to gain a better understanding of processes
that control the occurrence and distribution of arsenic in ground water.
This task should be undertaken in selected geologic terrains where the
historical data has shown arsenic to be a concern and where other
environmental factors are favorable to test the following scientific
questions:

-   What drives the occurrence of various valences of arsenic?

-   How does methylation of arsenic occur?

-   What are the impacts to biota form arsenic in sediments and surface
    water?

-   Do anthropogenic influences effect the speciation of arsenic and, if
    so, how?

-   Is conversion of past orchard lands, which were treated with
    arsenical pesticides, to suburban landscapes increase the mobility
    or availability of arsenic?

-   What is the co-occurrence of arsenic with uranium and selenium? The
    chemistry of these elements and the occurrence in rocks is generally
    similar and there is some overlap in environmental mobility.

The Eastern Region should commission a team of scientists to formulate a
workplan, with budget, to answer the above stated science questions. The
workplan should propose where, how, and with whom to conduct the
investigations that will provide the answers. The team should be
selected from the Arsenic Studies Group.

-   **Mercury bioaccumulation**

**Issue:** Mercury contamination of our aquatic resources is a serious
national environmental problem. As of December 2001, fish-consumption
advisories for mercury have been issued in 41 states, and mercury was
responsible for 75% of all consumption advisories for all contaminants
nationwide. Advisories in 14 states pertain to all inland waters in the
state, or in the case of the Gulf Coast states, all coastal waters are
under an advisory for high mercury levels in commercial and sport
fishes. Atmospheric emissions (mostly coal combustion and waste
incineration) and subsequent deposition is the primary mercury source to
most ecosystems, and as a result all regions of the Earth are now at
least lightly contaminated with mercury. However, to become a problem of
toxicological concern, the deposited mercury must be converted to
methylmercury, a highly neurotoxic form that is produced by natural
microbial processes in aquatic ecosystems, particularly those rich in
wetlands. Methylmercury biomagnifies to high concentrations toward the
top of aquatic food webs, and small quantities of methylmercury in the
diet can adversely affect wildlife and humans. In 2001, the National
Academy of Sciences published a report on methylmercury and concluded
that at any time, over 60,000 women of child-bearing age in the US have
blood mercury levels that are considered unsafe.

**Capabilities:** Although awareness of the mercury problem is much
greater today than a decade ago, and multidisciplinary research has
significantly improved our understanding of the controlling factors,
management and regulatory responses to this problem remain largely
impeded due remaining information gaps. These gaps largely arise from
the immense complexity of the environmental mercury cycle, and general
lack of complete mercury studies that include aspects of source
quantification, biogeochemical transformations, bioaccumulation, and
toxicological effects. The USGS is one of the only, if not the only,
science agency that is has all the necessary multidisciplinary
capabilities to conduct complete studies that will close many of the
existing information gaps. For example, within the Eastern Region of the
USGS, the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center has a long history of
performing methylmercury exposure studies, the Wisconsin Mercury
Research Laboratory is a state-of-the-art lab with low-level speciation
capabilities for executing mercury cycling studies, and the Energy
Program of the Geologic Discipline has a researchers who have extensive
experience examining the mercury content of major coal resources of the
US and geochemists that can provide critically needed information on
factors controlling mercury methylation, such as sulfate reduction. In
addition, multidisciplinary research teams from the Central and Western
Regions of USGS have extensive experience conducting mercury research in
highly contaminated mining sites, which contribute essential information
on varying mercury source strength and type controls on methylmercury
formation and bioaccumulation.

**Actions:** There are clearly many regions of the US or ecosystem types
for which very little or no information on mercury contamination
currently exist. For example, low-land streams in the southeastern US
have all the characteristics of ecosystems that would yield severe cases
of methylmercury exposure (high wetland density, low to circum neutral
pH, high DOC content, and warm climate), yet no known multidisciplinary
study of these ecosystems has yet to be conducted. Similarly, although
it was very recently (May 2002) revealed that the commercial and sport
fisheries of the Gulf of Mexico are alarmingly high in mercury, and
press coverage of the problem has suggested oil and gas production is
the "source", however, there is literally no scientific information to
base what the causal reasons are for this large scale problem. The USGS
could provide critical information to help resolve this issue, such as
measurements of methylmercury fluxes from major rivers, coastal
wetlands, and seabed sediments; all of which have substantial potential
to yield methylmercury. Examples like these are very common, and are
fertile ground for USGS scientists to make significant contributions
toward providing needed information needed for basing land and resource
management decisions to improve mercury contamination conditions
generally through out the US.

-   **Trace elements and radionucleides**

Issues: In the last two decades, there has been increasing attention
placed on radionuclides in ground water. This attention results from
greater understanding of the significant health risk posed by ingestion,
more information detailing the widespread occurrence and environmental
mobility of these constituents, and the regulatory process with USEPA
trying to finalize a scientifically based Drinking Water Radionuclide
Rule (finished in 2000). Radionuclides occur naturally in ground water
from radioactive breakdown of uranium and thorium, which are present in
various concentrations in all rock and soil. An interesting finding in
the last decade has been that, besides mining and industrial processes,
other anthropogenic processes can influence the release of certain
radionuclides into ground water from rock and soil. The presence of
radionuclides in ground water poses a direct public health concern
because of the use of ground water as a public water supply source and a
source for domestic supply wells. Direct consumption of certain
radionuclides, such as radium 226 and 228, is known to increase the risk
of cancer. Uranium has also been increasingly measured with occurrence
of elevated values in ground water used for water supply. The presence
of radon gas in ground water also presents a public health concern when
ground water is used as either a public water supply source or a
domestic supply. Off gassing of the radon in homes from the public
supply source can present an inhalation health risk. Some domestic wells
with extreme radon values may pose an almost immediate health risk from
inhalation. In the last decade, the presence of short-half life, alpha
particle emitting radionuclides in ground water, like radium 224, have
received much attention. The presence of these isotopes in ground water
used as source waters had not previously been documented and, as a
result, the health effects of these radionuclides were not considered in
setting safe drinking water standards.

Many of the geologic terrains where radionuclides are of concern are
within the Eastern Region, including the unconfined aquifers of the
Atlantic Coastal Plain, areas within the Piedmont, New England, and
other Appalachian Physiographic Provinces, and areas of the Central
Lowlands in the Upper Midwest. Many population centers within the
Eastern Region derive their sources waters from ground water in geologic
terrains that potentially contain radionuclides at levels of concern.
Regulatory agencies, including the USEPA, have actively reached out to
the USGS for technical assistance in this important public health area.

Capabilities: Scientists at the USGS have conducted much of the research
to date on issues related to radionuclides in the environment. In the
Geologic Discipline, extensive databases exist on radionuclide content
of native rock and minerals through the Energy Resources and Mineral
Resources Programs. The Geologic Discipline's Denver Laboratory has
specialized capability, such as the ability to fission track minerals in
which uranium, thorium, and radium occurs. These tools provide
significant capability for predicting likely "hot spots" of radionuclide
occurrence in native rock, and therefore, in ground water. The Water
Discipline National Research Program in Reston, VA operates a laboratory
with the only capability in the USGS to detect radium 224 by gamma
spectroscopy. USGS scientists have published extensive work on the
occurrence of radionuclides in ground water and the processes that
control the occurrence. The USGS maintains extensive databases of ground
water quality data, containing radionuclide concentrations and
concentrations of other water quality constituents important to the
study of radionuclides. USGS scientists (Zoltan Szabo and Thomas
Kraemer) in the Eastern Region have been leaders in defining the aqueous
chemistry of many of the radionuclides. Finally, USGS scientists have
completed and published the only national reconnaissance study of
short-half life radionuclide occurrence in ground water in the US. In
short, the USGS, within the Eastern Region, possesses a significant and
nationally recognized capability for investigation of radionuclides in
ground water and the associated public health exposure.

**Actions:** The USGS needs to gain a better understanding of the
occurrence and distribution of short-half life radionuclides in ground
water. This task should be undertaken in selected geologic terrains
where the historical data indicates short-half life radionuclides are
likely to be a concern and where other environmental factors are
favorable to test the following scientific questions:

-   What short-half life radionuclides are present and are likely to
    pose human health risks? Particular focus should be given to lead
    210 and polonium 210 with regard to USEPA's Unregulated Contaminant
    Monitoring Rule, and radium 224, mentioned but not regulated in the
    2000 rule.

-   What is the variability of short-half life radionuclides
    concentrations in ground water of these geologic terrains?

-   The USGS should track USEPA action on its rulemaking for radon gas.
    If the rule places greater emphasis on radon contributions from
    ground water, the research question as the rule is currently being
    promulgated will be: What is the variability of radon gas in ground
    water from priority terrains?

-   Is the occurrence of uranium in ground water adequately
    characterized to protect public health as we exploit new sources of
    ground water?

The main beneficiary of answering these research questions will be the
drinking water regulatory agencies of the states and the USEPA. The
Eastern Region should formulate a plan to approach these agencies for
collaborative work and funding for these research issues. The Eastern
Region should commission a team of scientists to formulate a workplan,
with budget, to answer the above stated science questions. The workplan
should propose where and how to conduct the investigations that will
provide the answers.

-   **Synthetic and natural organic contaminants (including emerging
    contaminants)**

**Issues:** The environmental distribution and ecosystem effects of only
a small group of organic compounds has been extensively studied, such
as, DDT, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PAHs). With the proliferation of personal care products
and industrial and household organic compounds, pesticides and
prescription and over-the-counter drugs it is probable that thousands of
organic compounds introduced and readily transported in our water
resources. . Also many natural organic contaminants such as hormones can
be introduced to our water resources through waste-water treatment
systems, septic systems, and large confined animal feeding operations.
Thus, there is a fair probability that at least some of these compounds
may affect aquatic ecosystems and have deleterious effects on the water
quality of rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Some of these compounds are
endocrine disruptors and have been measured at concentrations in which
they can have effects. As new compounds enter the marketplace and
eventually enter the ecosystem through point discharges or runoff, the
ecological impact of these compounds need investigation to determine
their effects on ecological communities, organism function and
reproduction and human health.

**Capabilities:** The USGS has pioneered the development of new
analytical methods in the U.S. to identify pharmaceuticals and endocrine
disrupting compounds, publishing the first studies of the distribution
of these compounds in surface waters of the United States. Analytical
methods researchers have the expertise to continue developing new
methods for detecting low levels of these compounds in environmental
samples. To continue to measure the wide variety of organic contaminants
more sophisticated analytical equipment needs to be obtained.

**Actions:** The USGS needs to allocate more funding for analytical
research and invest in new instrumentation to foster such research.
Funds are also needed to characterize the occurrence, fate, and
geochemical transport including research field sites.

### Pathogens and Disease

**Issues:** Pathogens can be spread through contaminated food and water
as well as through wildlife vectors. There have been several recent
waterborne outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis in the United States, the
largest of which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Similarly, the recent
outbreak and rapid spread of the deadly West Nile virus in a variety of
predominately bird species throughout the U.S., but with over 200
associated human deaths, a reminder that wildlife pathogens and diseases
(zoonotics) may pose significant threats to humans as well. A variety of
pathogenic microbes and parasites ranging from viruses, bacteria, and
protozoa to round worms, hook worms, tape worms, and insects have
adapted to utilize human hosts as well as variety of fish and wildlife.
A variety of environmental factors associated with climate change,
floods, urbanization, animal management, habitat fragmentation, invasive
species, and degraded water quality are associated with increasing risks
for humans contacting infectious diseases from invertebrate and
vertebrate vectors and contaminated water. Identifying and understanding
the factors that affect microbial contamination of surface and
groundwater can lead towards prevention and remediation. For example,
tools such as bacterial source- tracking (of E. coli and other microbes)
or models to predict pathogen concentrations can help states and local
communities make informed management decisions on water resources. West
Nile, Lyme, equine encephalitis, hemorrhagic fever, bubonic plague,
anthrax, rabies, salmonellosis, giardia, and foot and mouth diseases are
well known potential threats to human health from infected animals.
Gastroenteritis (bacterial and viral), *legionellosis, shigellosis,
cholera, cryptosporidiosis,* and infectious hepatitis are well known
potential threats to human health from infected water. The USGS will
continue to play an essential partnership role on human health issues
with the Center for Disease Control, National Institute of Health,
National Institute of Environmental Health, Federal Emergency Management
Authority, Environmental Protection Agency, and Department of Homeland
Security.

Outbreaks of existing and emerging zoonotic diseases and waterborne
diseases will continue to occur. The vital partnership role that USGS
has assumed with Federal, State, and Local public health agencies
requires that USGS maintain and enhance its expertise, capabilities, and
facilities to address the zoonotic and waterborne threats; recent
concerns over potential bio-terrorism and agro-terrorism threats have
amplified these needs.

**Actions:** The USGS should strengthen its multidisciplinary role in
the identification, monitoring and surveillance of infectious diseases
of aquatic and terrestrial organisms and of fecal indicators and
pathogens of waterborne diseases. a. New funds are needed by USGS
collaborators in biology, geology, mapping, and water to protect public
health by means of:

-   Expanding water and atmospheric microbiology capabilities and
    expertise.

-   Characterizing infection, molecular pathogenesis, and disease
    processes, as these factors relate to the host, pathogen, and
    environmental conditions

-   Elucidating the role of contaminants, endocrine disruptors, and
    natural toxins as stressors and causes of increased susceptibility
    of organisms to infectious diseases

-   Enhancing wildlife disease diagnostic services, and providing advice
    and direction for the containment and control of zoonotic agents

-   Improving disease surveillance and disease tracking of infected fish
    and wildlife populations using molecular, genetic, and remote
    sensing technologies

-   Conducting research addressing key knowledge gaps in
    climate/wildlife/human health interactions

-   Analyzing the distribution and population dynamics of microbial
    flora and evaluate relationships of pathogenic and non-pathogenic
    organisms to the biotic and abiotic environment

-   Expanding the development and use of indicator fish and wildlife
    species as surveillance sentinels of ecosystem condition, including
    use of epidemiology, indices, and predictive models

-   Enhancing the ability to distinguish between a natural outbreak and
    an intentional release of a disease agent with improved tools and
    techniques of diagnostics, forensics, and epidemiology

-   Characterize the microbiological quality of surface and groundwater
    in relation to human health issues

-   Develop methods and expertise to identify sources of fecal
    contamination or to predict the presence of pathogens or fecal
    indicators in water

## **Air Quality**

**Issue:** Air transports constituents as gases, liquids, and solids.
Some of the gases include carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, a number of
nitrogen oxides, mercury, radon, and various volatile organic compounds.
As solids, dust particles may consist of soot, and minerals including
silica (SiO2), clays, and others. The liquids are primarily water vapor
with perhaps some dissolved contaminants resulting in, for example,
acid-rain, rain with high-levels of mercury, nitrate etc. Non-mineral
dust particles may consist of pesticides or microbes including viruses,
bacteria, and fungi. Sometimes the dusts provide a surface on which
chemical compounds or non-mineral particles can be occluded. For
example, elevated concentrations of mercury, lead, Be-7, and Pb-210 have
been found on African dust particles. The USGS cooperates with the
National Atmospheric Deposition Program monitoring wet atmospheric
deposition at 80 sites.

Africa is the source of dust that episodically reaches the southern US,
Puerto Rico, and other islands in the Caribbean. African dust is known
to be a vital source of nutrients to the Amazon ecosystem, but also it
is known to transmit mercury, arsenic, pesticides, insects, and viable
bacteria, fungi and viruses. In Puerto Rico, African dust has been
related to increasing asthma, other respiratory diseases. As a
transporter of the micronutrient iron, African dust has been shown to
stimulate the formation of red tides in the Gulf of Mexico, costing the
State of Florida hundreds of millions of dollars in lost tourism
revenues and the collapse of valuable fisheries. Coral disease rates
seem to parallel the deposition of African dust in the Caribbean and may
be related to dust-borne pathogens, micronutrients or both. Well over
100 pathogens have been cultured from African dust. Dust in the
southwestern U.S. has been known to carry the pathogen that causes the
human disease Valley Fever. Some U.S. dusts can also carry potentially
hazardous minerals such as asbestos. Much is not known about the
potential effects of African dust on human health, ecosystem health,
water quality or how the amount of African dust that reaches the U.S has
varied in the past and what effects human and ecosystem (especially
coral) health might have resulted. Also, it is not known if there are
any potential effects to humans or ecosystems due to dusts from other US
or Asia sources.

**Actions:** Research should focus on more completely characterizing the
constituents that are contained in dust, relating dust characteristics
to source areas, and determining the effects of dust on ecosystems and
human health. Strong partnerships should be established with the human
health community to evaluate potential human health effects. Past
geologic and biologic records - for example sediment cores and coral
reefs -- should be examined to determine it any relationships can be
found between dust events and ecosystem health and how the past
frequency and intensity of dust-producing events has varied through
time.

### [IV. Natural Hazards -- Human Safety, Economic Risks, and Biological Consequences]{.underline} 

Economic losses from floods and droughts amount to hundreds of millions
of dollars annually. Monitoring the occurrence and magnitude of these
extreme events and studying the basic processes underlying these hazards
will lead to improving the ability to forecast probability of occurrence
and likely magnitudes, and help prepare for and prevent disasters.
Regarding extreme storm events, prior to 1998, managers and scientists
within each of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) disciplines made
decisions and performed activities related to storm response in an
independent manner. In the past, each discipline has had separate,
well-defined roles and responsibilities in response to a major storm
event. When it became evident that a more integrated and coordinated
approach to storm response across disciplines would improve the overall
quality and effectiveness of USGS efforts, a new policy was established.
The Director, Office of the Eastern Region, established a temporary,
interdisciplinary team in 1998 to develop a framework within which
future storm-response teams would be formed at the discretion of a
Regional Director. The overall goal of the team is to provide emergency
managers and other decision-makers with timely and accurate information
for the protection of life and property in the United States. The
Regional Science Coordinator will activate and chair the
Multidisciplinary Science Team (MST) that will oversee storm-response
team efforts for future events.

-   **Flooding and Drought**

**Discussion:** During the 20^th^ century, floods were the number one
natural disaster in the United States in terms of number of lives lost
and property damage. Types of floods include regional floods, flash
floods, ice-jam floods, storm-surge floods, and dam- and levee-failure
floods. The objectives of the USGS during a flood event include
operation of our national gaging station network and provision of
real-time data.

The National Weather Service and emergency management agencies utilize
the real-time data for forecasting and early warning purposes. A stable
network of long-term streamflow gages is needed for forecasting and
early warning purposes. Another major objective of the USGS during or
immediately after a flood event has been to document the flood peak, in
terms of peak discharge and flood elevation. The USGS has also
traditionally worked to document the extent of flood inundation after
the event. FEMA has recently issued revised regulations for its Flood
Insurance Rate Maps that include floodplain delineation based on
anticipated "future conditions." There is a current need for real-time
flood inundation maps based upon current gaging station records,
understanding of the hydrology of the region, and high resolution land
cover/digital elevation mapping.

In the arena of coastal flooding, the Atlantic coast of the US, from
Cape Cod south to Texas, is characterized by barrier beach islands and
inlets, which enclose shallow coastal lagoons. Coastal storms, including
hurricanes and nor'easters, are known to force water in through the
inlets of these coastal lagoons and actually create flood heights of
greater stage that in the adjacent ocean. This phenomenon is caused by
the successive high tides and the forcing action of the wind, which does
not allow enough water to retreat through the inlets. Many post flood
reports by the National Weather Service have documented this condition
and have called for greater data collection, on a real-time basis, for
the coastal lagoons along the Atlantic seaboard. This is an area where
the USGS should look to play a major role.

Drought is a normal, recurring climatic feature that affects human
activities and the ecosystem gradually as precipitation deficits
accumulate over a period of months and years. The cumulative effect of
these deficits is to reduce streamflow and reservoir storage and ground
water levels at a time when water demand usually increases. The economic
loss and hardship associated with regional, multiyear droughts can have
long-term but difficult to quantify effects on crops, operating costs,
industrial production, and the environment. Environmental losses
associated with droughts are the result of damages to plant and animal
species, wildlife habitat, and air and water quality; forest and range
fires, degradation of landscape quality; loss of biodiversity; and soil
erosion. Although less dramatic than floods, droughts are more
persistent and can cause far greater economic losses than floods. The
USGS documents the severity of droughts through streamflow measurements
and statistical analysis of data, documents the associated biological
effects of droughts, provides estimates of expected low flows on gaged
and ungaged streams, and publishes interpretive reports on low flows and
drought effects.

**Actions:** The Eastern Region has two distinct priorities for flooding
and they are separated into the areas of riverine and coastal flooding.
In the area of riverine flooding, the Eastern Region will focus on our
capability to map flood inundation on a real-time basis and will
assemble the expertise to develop a set of pilot projects around that
capability. The Eastern Region will select a set of pilot basins with
excellent coverage of real-time streamgages and identified flooding
problems. The Region will plan to develop the high resolution digital
elevation and land cover data necessary to map inundated areas and work
with cooperating agencies on the type of outputs from the mapping that
would be most useful. It is recommended that the Eastern Region have the
two Regional Surface Water Specialists and representatives of the Office
of Surface Water and Eastern Region Geography work together to scope the
pilot studies and to propose locations for its implementation.

In the area of coastal flooding, the Eastern Region will promote the
development of a plan to install a network of tidal gaging stations
along our coastal lagoons up the Atlantic Seaboard. A system of 27 tidal
gaging stations, all reporting on a real-time basis, has already been
installed along the coast of New Jersey, with great success and
significant support from the National Weather Service (NWS), the
National Ocean Service (NOS), and the state emergency management agency.
The National Weather Service should be contacted to determine coastal
areas of greatest need for similar networks and the Eastern Region
should work with NWS, NOS and state emergency management agencies to
implement the network.

# Developing an action plan for droughts requires looking at the many impacts associated with them and setting priorities to address certain of those impacts. In the **Discussion** above, the impacts have been outlined and here the Eastern Region will focus its priority on real-time monitoring of groundwater resources during drought conditions. For ground water, more real-time wells (congressionally funded similar to NSIP) are needed near rivers and streams to correlate groundwater and surface water systems and measure the conditions of surficial aquifers. The Eastern Region will develop a proposed network of real-time ground water wells for surficial aquifers and ways in which the information can be graphically displayed to best inform the resource managers and public of current conditions. The Eastern Region will have the Regional Ground Water Specialists work with the offices of Eastern Region Geology and Geography on the planning the proposed network and means of data delivery. 

# 

# USGS biologists need to work with multidisciplinary teams to understand how drought may impact lake, stream, riparian, and wetland biological community dynamics, including the ecology of small natural pools that occasionally go dry during periods of low rainfall. Impacts of such drying events, for example to amphibian reproduction, waterfowl roosting and shorebird feeding, need to be understood and modeled. Such models are also needed to forecast impacts to water-dependent biological communities from human induced \"drought\" conditions, resulting from artificial drawdowns and groundwater pumping that cause water levels to be lowered and ponds to dry. Related, existing USGS research in the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area and proposed work with the State of New Jersey should be expanded and promoted. 

# 

# **Earthquakes**

**Issues:** Fortunately large earthquakes are rare in the eastern United
States, with the possible exception of Puerto Rico. But the eastern U.S.
has undergone the effects of the largest earthquakes known in the lower
48 states; the New Madrid (MO) earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 (Dec. and
Jan. respectively). In addition to the adjacent western-most portions of
Kentucky and Tennessee, recent studies have extended New Madrid risk
zone into southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana in the vicinity of
the Wabash Valley. The three highest risk zones are New Madrid, MO,
eastern Tennessee, and Charleston, SC. However, moderate earthquakes
have occurred in the past in the Northeast, some occurring near New York
City and Boston. While the risk of earthquakes in these cities is fairly
low, the potential for damage is large because of the population
density.

The two technical areas in the eastern US that have the greatest lack of
knowledge about prehistoric earthquakes and their potential effects are:

1.  Areas of little studied large earthquakes in the eastern US (e.g.
    eastern Tennessee, parts of the Northeast, northeastern IL south of
    Chicago)

2.  The nature of ground motion for engineering design in the central
    and eastern US (e.g. Wabash Valley region, IL, IN, KY)

Because of the difference in the nature of the geology in the eastern
U.S. compared to California, the potential risks from eastern
earthquakes usually covers a far larger area. For example, the 1811 New
Madrid earthquake was felt in Washington D.C. and rang church bells in
Boston. The value of earthquake research is not being able to predict
when and earthquake will occur, but in predicting the frequency and
magnitude, including ground shaking potential, of potential earthquakes.
USGS earthquake research has occurred or is underway for the New Madrid
and Charleston areas.

**Actions:** Assessing earthquake risks requires a multifaceted research
approach that includes:

-   Monitoring earthquakes

-   Assessing prehistorical earthquake events (location, frequency,
    magnitude)

-   Determining the processes that cause earthquakes

-   Assessing potential landslide, liquifaction, and ground shaking
    risks

-   Interacting closely with local communities, and local, state and
    Federal disaster relief and other organizations to provide
    information necessary to reduce the risks and losses from
    earthquakes

New research following the above approach would be tailored to met the
specific research needs of the several technical areas and regional
areas described above.

# **Slope failure and subsidence**

**Issues:** Most subsidence in the US is due to the withdrawal of
groundwater followed by compaction of the subsurface materials so that
the volume is lost for ground water storage. In the Eastern US, there
are additional geologic processes that can cause subsidence. These
include:

-   Formation of sinkhole in karst terrane (including FL, VA, WV, KY,
    and others)

-   Collapse of overlying bedrock after coal mining (e.g., PA, WV, VA,
    MD)

-   Compaction of waste disposal materials, as occurred from the
    compaction of coal ash that was dumped in small stream drainages in
    Philadelphia and later built over

-   Natural compaction of sediments along the Gulf Coast where the
    deposition of new sediments has ceased due to channelization of
    local drainages (coastal Gulf of Mexico)

-   Collapse of overlying bedrock from the extraction of oil and natural
    gas

-   Collapse of overlying bedrock from the solution mining of halite
    (western NY)

-   Soil loss from the draining of organic-rich soils and their
    subsequent loss by oxidation (e.g. southern Florida everglades)

-   Potential tsunamogenic slope failures along the shelf-break of the
    Carolinas have been (perhaps due to disassociation of gas hydrate

-   Offshore catastrophic landslide off the north shore of Puerto Rico

Landslides are a natural geologic process, often exacerbated by human
influences that cause about \$3 billion in losses annually in the US. In
the east, they are most common in the Appalachians highlands, New
England, and also along the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay Coasts and
along many of the larger rivers. Landslide susceptibility is typically
greatest on clay-rich soils, and clay-rich sediment layers, and shale.
Most landslides are triggered by excessive rainfall and floods
(sometimes exacerbated by vegetative loss from wildfires), earthquakes,
heavy snow, human excavation along landslide-prone areas, and
freeze-thaw action. Some areas were susceptible to landslides in the
distant past when climatic conditions were different, but they are not
susceptible today. Some of landslide areas and deposits sometimes harbor
unusual plants and animals because of the unique habitat they provide.

**Actions:** Initial work in subsidence should begin in two areas where
the USGS currently has on-going or developing activities. A joint
activity (geology and water) is under development for to study karstic
areas of several northern Virginia and adjacent West Virginia counties.
There may be opportunities to broaden the scope of the project by
including the biologic and geographic capabilities of the USGS. In
coordination with the Eastern Mine Drainage Federal Consortium, there
may be an opportunity to assess ground-water resources in areas where
long-wall mining has occurred, often for decades. Such mining could
greatly affect the ground-water table, perhaps causing many water-supply
wells to go dry, and thus affecting in stream biota.

To more fully develop and apply its landslide capabilities, the USGS was
requested by Congress to prepare the " National Landslide Hazards
Mitigation Strategy" (USGS Open-file Report 00-0450). In the eastern US,
landslide work should initially focus are those areas that are at
highest risk, and where local, state, and Federal interest and
partnerships can most readily be formed.

### 

### Review of the Eastern Region Science Plan

In accordance with the current USGS reorganization, the Eastern Region
science plan should align with specific strategic goals identified
within the Bureau's Future Science Directions and with the Bureau
Programs' 5-year plans; the success in alignment of strategic goals will
be evaluated during a strategic review of the science plan, to be
conducted every five years.

An annual update of the science plan will be conducted to ensure
alignment of identified science priorities with those identified in the
Bureau's Annual Program Direction (from Bureau Program Planning
Committee and Program Coordinators) and the Director's annual guidance.

Strategic reviews and annual updates of the science plan will occur in
**April**.

### Relationship between Bureau and Eastern Region Science Activities

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