Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/25/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** AS5034

AS5034

**Australia**

**Grain and Feed**

**Quarterly Lockup**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kathleen Wainio, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Forecast Australian Wheat production has been revised upwards to 21.9
MMT for 2005/06 due to above average seasonal conditions in some key
growing regions. Barley production has also been revised upwards to 7.0
MMT due to improved conditions. Isolated extreme weather events in the
state of Western Australia are not expected to affect total Australian
winter cereal production. The outlook for the Australian summer cropping
season, which is only just beginning, has also improved since Post's
last report.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Quarterly Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## General Weather Conditions

### Winter Cropping Season

Key grain growing regions in Australia have experienced greatly improved
weather conditions over the past three months. September produced some
of the heaviest rainfall over this period with official Australian
Bureau of Meteorology data showing above average conditions for many key
winter cropping regions. These weather conditions have surpassed
expectations previously reported by Post (see GAIN Report #AS5023)

Some areas continue to suffer from the "lateness" of planting rains,
which has caused many crops to run behind schedule. However, hot and
windy conditions, which can significantly damage these crops in October,
have not yet eventuated.

Western Australia, the largest wheat growing state, has experienced some
extreme weather events. Isolated incidents of frost and a significant
hail event, although restricted to specific areas, have been reported.
However, industry and government sources do not expect these events to
significantly change final production levels for the state.

Post has assumed normal weather conditions over the next three months.
However, at this time, rain continues to fall over much of Australia's
wheat belts at a crucial period. A continuation of this weather pattern
in the lead-up to harvest is likely to see forecast production levels
increase further although quality may be significantly affected.

### Summer Cropping Season

Recent and widespread rainfall has been beneficial for the outlook of
dryland summer crop production. Cotton planting is now complete in most
areas and sowing of sorghum and other summer crops is well underway.

Recent rainfall has also benefited the outlook for irrigated summer crop
production. Catchments have continued to recharge and the availability
of irrigation water both on farm and in the catchment continues to
improve. However, due to the severity of the recent drought, water
availability continues to remain well below the long-term average.

## Wheat Production

Australian wheat production in 2005/06 is forecast at 21.9 MMT, up 0.4
MMT from Post's previous forecast (see GAIN Report #AS5023), and
reflects average to above average conditions since planting. This
improved outlook comes despite the late start to the season in eastern
Australia.

According to historical ABARE data, a wheat crop of 21.9 MMT is likely
to be directly in line with the long-term trend for Australian wheat
production.

![](media/image2.wmf)

*Source: ABARE data (July/June)*

Forecast wheat area in 2005/06 is unchanged from Post's previous
forecast (#AS5023) at 11.85 million hectares. The slight increase in
forecast production is driven by improved yields due to above average
rainfall over the past three months. Post forecast assumes a yield of
around 1.85 MMT/ha, which is slightly above average according to ABARE's
historical data. A yield of this level reflects above average fall of
rain in key wheat growing areas.

![](media/image3.wmf)

*Source: ABARE data (July/June)*

## Barley Production

Barley production in 2005/06 is forecast at 7.0 MMT, slightly up from
the previous forecast (see GAIN Report #AS5023). This increase is driven
by above average falls of rain in some key barley growing areas where
Post had previously assumed only average rainfall. The Australian barley
crop is approaching the late filling stages and continued rainfall will
likely see another upwards revision in production.

![](media/image4.wmf)

*Source: ABARE data (July/June)*

Barley, a shorter season crop, is better suited to later planting rains
and the subsequent shorter growing season. However, the continuation of
cooler and wetter conditions into late spring is expected to see wheat
production increase proportionally more despite both crops being planted
later than normal.

## Post's Recent Grain Reports

Winter Grain Situation Update, AS5023, 6/28/05

Winter Grain Situation Update, AS5016, 5/24/05

Grain Quarterly Update, AS5011, 4/26/05

Grain and Feed Annual, AS5008, 3/23/05

**SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES**

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Wheat             |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                   | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                   | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                   | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                   | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                   | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                   |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **1  |     | **1  |     | **1  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 0/20 |     | 0/20 |     | 0/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 13  | 1    | 12  | 1    | 11  | 1    | *(   |
| Harvested**       | 024 | 3100 | 200 | 1991 | 500 | 1850 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning       | 3   | 1708 | 5   | 4360 | 5   | 3420 | *(   |
| Stocks**          | 142 |      | 459 |      | 934 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**    | 26  | 2    | 21  | 2    | 22  | 2    | *(   |
|                   | 231 | 6100 | 500 | 0500 | 000 | 1900 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  | 73  | 59   | 75  | 60   | 75  | 60   | *(   |
| Imports**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Jul-Jun         | 71  | 60   | 76  | 60   | 75  | 60   | *(   |
| Imports**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Jul-Jun Import  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| U.S.**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 29  | 2    | 27  | 2    | 28  | 2    | *(   |
|                   | 446 | 7867 | 034 | 4920 | 009 | 5380 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  | 18  | 1    | 14  | 1    | 16  | 1    | *(   |
| Exports**         | 031 | 8007 | 800 | 6000 | 000 | 6100 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Jul-Jun         | 15  | 1    | 15  | 1    | 16  | 1    | *(   |
| Exports**         | 096 | 5104 | 826 | 6800 | 000 | 5900 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Feed Dom.       | 3   | 2500 | 3   | 2500 | 3   | 2800 | *(   |
| Consumption**     | 231 |      | 600 |      | 400 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.      | 5   | 5500 | 6   | 5500 | 6   | 5800 | *(   |
| Consumption**     | 956 |      | 300 |      | 100 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks** | 5   | 4360 | 5   | 3420 | 5   | 3480 | *(   |
|                   | 459 |      | 934 |      | 909 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 29  | 2    | 27  | 2    | 28  | 2    | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**    | 446 | 7867 | 034 | 4920 | 009 | 5380 | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Barley            |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                   | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                   | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                   | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                   | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                   | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                   |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **1  |     | **1  |     | **1  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 4   | 4404 | 3   | 4159 | 3   | 3900 | *(   |
| Harvested**       | 404 |      | 800 |      | 800 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning       | 948 | 873  | 1   | 1720 | 1   | 1024 | *(   |
| Stocks**          |     |      | 787 |      | 087 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**    | 10  | 1    | 7   | 6454 | 7   | 7000 | *(   |
|                   | 287 | 0287 | 000 |      | 200 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep Import  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| U.S.**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 11  | 1    | 8   | 8174 | 8   | 8024 | *(   |
|                   | 235 | 1160 | 787 |      | 287 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  | 6   | 6374 | 4   | 3900 | 4   | 3450 | *(   |
| Exports**         | 398 |      | 500 |      | 300 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Oct-Sep         | 6   | 6300 | 4   | 3950 | 4   | 3400 | *(   |
| Exports**         | 104 |      | 500 |      | 300 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Feed Dom.       | 2   | 2134 | 2   | 2200 | 2   | 2300 | *(   |
| Consumption**     | 150 |      | 300 |      | 400 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.      | 3   | 3066 | 3   | 3250 | 3   | 3350 | *(   |
| Consumption**     | 050 |      | 200 |      | 300 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks** | 1   | 1720 | 1   | 1024 | 687 | 1224 | *(   |
|                   | 787 |      | 087 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 11  | 1    | 8   | 8174 | 8   | 8024 | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**    | 235 | 1160 | 787 |      | 287 |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+