**Pat O'Toole**

**President**

**Family Farm Alliance**

**Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Water and Power**

**Committee on Energy & Natural Resources**

**United States Senate**

**Oversight Hearing**

**on**

**Climate Change and Water Supply Impacts**

**June 6, 2007**

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:

Thank you for the opportunity to appear before you to discuss climate
change and water supply impacts on Western irrigated agriculture. My
name is Patrick O'Toole, and I serve as the president of the Family Farm
Alliance (Alliance).

The Alliance is a grassroots organization of family farmers, ranchers,
irrigation districts and allied industries in 16 Western states. The
Alliance is focused on one mission: To ensure the availability of
reliable, affordable irrigation water supplies to Western farmers and
ranchers. We are also committed to the fundamental proposition that
Western irrigated agriculture must be preserved and protected for a host
of economic, sociological, environmental and national security reasons
-- many of which are often overlooked in the context of other policy
decisions.

My family operates a cattle, sheep and hay ranch in the Little Snake
River Valley on the Wyoming-Colorado border. I am a former member of
Wyoming's House of Representatives and I served on the federal
government's Western Water Policy Review Advisory Commission in the late
1990's.

The topic of this oversight hearing is not only tremendously important
to the Alliance, it also is immediately relevant to me and other Wyoming
water users, and to farmers, ranchers and small communities all over the
West.

**[Alliance Involvement with Climate Change Issues]{.underline}**

The Family Farm Alliance Board of Directors at its 19^th^ Annual Meeting
in Las Vegas last February established a subcommittee to develop a white
paper that addresses the important issue of climate change, its possible
impact on Western water supplies and irrigated agriculture, and
recommendations on how to plan and provide stewardship for this change.
That document will soon be finalized and publicly released, and we will
share it with the subcommittee. I think it will once again demonstrate
the Alliance's realistic approach to problem solving.

**[Current and Projected Impacts of Climate Change to Western Farmers
and Ranchers]{.underline}**

In the past six months, the public has been inundated with a flood of
new studies that focus on projected climate change impacts to Western
water resources. Predictions and conclusions reached about the impacts
climate change will have on future water resources availability are as
varied as the Western landscape. However, we are increasingly hearing
reports that predict dire long-term hydrologic consequences for the
West. Several studies further focus on specific regions or watersheds
and are briefly discussed below.

[Arizona]{.underline}

Experts in Arizona say that climate change is occurring and will likely
have more impacts in the future to water resources. A climatic water
budget runoff model has been developed for the Salt and Verde River
basins of central Arizona[^1], which used the outputs of six global
climate models to estimate runoff in the future under assorted
"scenarios" developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 
Due to projected warmer temperatures by the year 2050, projected changes
in runoff for the two basins suggest that the runoff from the Salt and
Verde will have approximately an 85% chance of being [less]{.underline}
in the future due largely to warming in the study area. This could have
significant impacts for these two basins, which have six dams, a
variable hydrology, and a total storage capacity of 2.3 million
acre-feet (as compared to the 27 million acre-feet capacity of Lakes
Powell and Mead on the Colorado River).

[California]{.underline}

A report released in 2006 by the State of California[^2] predicts that
climate change will result in a drastic drop in the state's drinking and
farm water supplies, as well as more frequent winter flooding. The
report suggests that warmer temperatures will raise the snow level in
California mountains, producing a smaller snowpack and more winter
runoff. This means more floodwaters to manage in winter, followed by
less snowmelt to store behind dams for cities, agriculture, and fish. By
the year 2050, the statewide snowpack would shrink by 5 million
acre-feet less water, more than the total capacity of Lake Shasta, the
state\'s largest reservoir.

By 2050, the State study predicts that average snowpack in the Sierra
Nevadas is likely to diminish by more than a third, and more
precipitation will fall as rain rather than as snow, making it harder
for reservoirs to capture for the long summer the same amount of water.
The dwindling snowpack could reduce deliveries of Sierra supplies to
Central Valley farmers by 10%.

According to another recent study developed by the University of
California[^3], agricultural water users in the Central Valley are also
the most vulnerable to climate warming. For the driest climate warming
scenario assessed, the predicted hydrology would reduce agricultural
water deliveries by about a third. For that dry scenario, the study
speculates that, while financial losses to the agricultural community
would be compensated by water sales to urban areas, much of this loss
would likely result in an uncompensated structural change in the
agricultural sector.

[Colorado River Basin]{.underline}

A February 2007 report by a National Research Council (NRC)
committee[^4] says agriculture is the likeliest target for shifting use
to urban needs in the fast growing West. But it cautions that "the
availability of agricultural water is finite." It adds that rising
population and water demands "will inevitably result in increasingly
costly, controversial and unavoidable trade-off choices\" in managing a
shrinking resource. Future droughts may be longer and more severe
because of a regional warming trend that shows no signs of dissipating,
the NRC report notes. It also states that a preponderance of evidence
suggests that rising temperatures will reduce the river\'s flow and
water supplies.

The committee also looked at how a steadily rising population and
related increases in water demand will affect Colorado River water
management. The population across the western United States has grown
rapidly. Despite some successful water conservation efforts, urban water
use in the region has increased significantly along with the expanding
population. Increasing urban water demands are often met through sales,
leases, or transfers of water rights from farm users. Water transfer
agreements will be limited in their ability to satisfy growing,
long-term demand, according to the NRC committee, and such agreements
may also cause problems for third parties, such as downstream farmers or
ecosystems. Technology and conservation measures are useful and
necessary for stretching existing water supplies, the committee
acknowledged, but any gains in water supply will be eventually absorbed
by the growing population.

[Pacific Northwest]{.underline}

Last April, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a
report[^5] that predicts climate-change related impacts to water
resources in the Pacific Northwest. Similar to predictions made in other
parts of the West, dwindling mountain snowpack is expected to make
summer water scarce especially east of the Cascades, where agriculture
is a strong component of rural communities.

Snowpack in the Cascade Range holds two-thirds of the region\'s stored
water. As it melts during the dry summer months, it fills rivers,
generates hydropower, and helps meet the water needs of irrigation,
fish, recreation and growing urban areas. However, Cascade snowpack has
diminished in the past 50 years and is expected to further shrink.
Projected warmer winter temperatures will cause snowpack to melt earlier
in the spring, which could exacerbate both spring-time flooding and
late-summer drought conditions. This prediction does not bode well for
irrigation-dependent eastern portions of Oregon and Washington.

[Utah]{.underline}

A 2003 study directed by Congress and led by Utah State University
professor Frederick Wagner[^6] lays out a variety of possibilities if
temperatures increase from nearly 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. The
potential scenarios range from increased precipitation (with decreased
snowpack and greater downstream flood risks) to decreased precipitation
(desertification and a decline in water resources). In all scenarios,
water management changes would be required, and the worst-case scenario
would likely trigger water transfers from agriculture to urban areas,
which would contribute to a sharp decline of farming and ranching. Water
resources experts in Utah also realize that new surface water storage
projects may be necessary to capture more snowmelt or more water from
other sources[^7]. The Southern Nevada Water Authority -- which has
essentially used up its share of Colorado River water - is already
planning to take groundwater out of aquifers under the Utah-Nevada state
line and pipe it to Las Vegas. Ranchers in this area are fighting this
proposal.

**[Summary of Anticipated Impacts to Agricultural Water
Users]{.underline}**

The Western Governors' Association (WGA) recently testified in support
of a bill that would reorient and fully fund the U.S. Global Change
Research Program to make it more user-driven. The WGA testimony mirrors
many of the common themes and findings developed in the reports
identified above. WGA found that we can expect to see the following
general effects and impacts caused by warming future temperatures in the
Western U.S.:

-   [Smaller snow packs and earlier snowmelt]{.underline} will affect
    reservoir storage and demand for water and impact productivity and
    value of hydroelectric generation;

-   [More rain than snow]{.underline} is likely, with uncertain
    projected impacts to overall precipitation amounts in specific
    areas;

-   [Extreme flood events]{.underline} could be more common and larger.

-   [Droughts and higher temperatures]{.underline} would be more
    intense, frequent and last longer, which would increase stream and
    reservoir evaporation, diminish surface water supplies, and stress
    groundwater supplies and water quality.

Despite the highly variable and uncertain nature inherent with climate
change predictions, it can safely be concluded that, in the West, with a
warming climate, there will be less water stored in our biggest
reservoir\...the snow pack. More water in the form of rainfall and
runoff will come at farmers and ranchers sooner in the season, when it
may not be useful and may even present a threat.

**[What are Irrigators, Water Agencies and Businesses Doing to Address
Climate Impacts?]{.underline}**

While a great deal of scientific inquiry and public discourse has been
focused on climate change and its possible consequences for the planet's
future, Western irrigators and irrigation districts are concerned about
the problems threatening their water supplies today -- drought and urban
population growth. Event without climate change, these factors present
an immediate crisis for agricultural water users in the West. If the
effects of climate change are anything like those outlined in the
research discussed here today, Western irrigated agriculture could be
largely eliminated. This is, of course, worrisome to farmers and
ranchers and their communities. It ought to be of great concern to
nation as a whole because climate change may result in a disruption of
food production worldwide. If that is what is in store for us, then this
country cannot afford to lose the food production capacity of Western
irrigated agriculture.

The response of irrigators and water agencies to current water supply
challenges can provide some insight into the possible measures that
might be taken to cope with long-term water supply reductions resulting
from climate change.

**[Drought Response]{.underline}**

Much of the West is currently in drought or facing reduced water
supplies as a result of environmental regulation. In response, farmers
and water agencies are taking creative measures to conserve water and
increase the efficiency of irrigation. Here are a few examples.

-   In the San Joaquin Valley of California, state-of-the-art drip
    irrigation systems water some of the most productive farmland in the
    world.

-   Further north, in the Sacramento Valley, producers and local
    governments are working to develop a regional water management
    program that will help address not only water quantity challenges,
    but also water quality and environmental issues. Those same growers
    15 years ago were key players in a state-managed drought water bank
    that temporarily transferred local water to southern California to
    meet other statewide needs.

-   In Idaho, water users are working with state and federal agencies
    and the Nez Perce Tribe to settle longstanding disputes and create
    more certain water supplies.

-   Along the Columbia River, irrigators are developing water exchange
    programs to increase supply reliability while improving salmon
    habitat.

    **[Pressures of Urban Population Growth]{.underline}**

The West is the most rapidly growing part of the United States. Yet,
water supplies there are essentially static. In some areas, urban demand
for water \-- and land \-- is straining agriculture and rural
communities to the breaking point. New environmental water demands
imposed by regulatory agencies or courts also first look to agriculture.
This is happening in every state, but farmers and ranchers point to some
striking examples:

-   A report released last year by Environment Colorado found that, from
    1987-2002, Colorado lost an average of 460 acres per day of ag land.
    The report predicts 3.1 million more acres will be lost to
    development by 2022.

-   Arizona's massive Salt River Project (SRP) in a few years will cease
    to provide water to agriculture in order to meet new demands exerted
    by development.

-   In Las Vegas, Nevada, over 70,000 new residents are moving in every
    year, and urban water officials are looking to rural areas to
    satisfy its growing thirst.

-   A restoration agreement developed for the Platte River could
    potentially dry up hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland in
    Nebraska and Wyoming, in order to reallocate water to meet the
    perceived needs of imperiled fish and wildlife.

-   The California Department of Conservation indicates that more than 1
    million acres of farmland in the state was converted between 1988
    and 1998. Last year, California's population officially topped 37
    million, a growth rate of 1.4 percent, representing 500,000 new
    residents in the last fiscal year.

Farmers, ranchers and rural communities cannot solve the water supply
problem created by the Western population boom. Nor can they be expected
to sacrifice their livelihoods for the "greater good" of golf courses,
strip malls and housing developments.

Farmland is disappearing at a time when the U.S. needs a stable domestic
food supply (just as it needs a stable energy supply). We are concerned
that this critical issue -- which becomes even more serious when viewed
in the context of projected climate-change impacts to water supplies -
is being overlooked by our national leaders.  

A reliable, safe and sustainable domestic food supply is just as
important as a strong military to the protection of our national
interests. The post 9/11 world of terrorist threats makes the stability
of domestic food supply even more pressing.

**[What are Western Irrigators Doing to Reduce Greenhouse
Gases?]{.underline}**

Western farmers and ranchers are already taking actions to reduce
greenhouse gases and other possible contributors to climate change. Some
of these actions are undertaken consciously with this objective in mind;
others have been implemented as part of the broad portfolio of actions
that successful farmers have to take to stay profitable in today's
economic and regulatory climate. In virtually every Western state, there
are examples of activities that agricultural producers are taking that
have an overall effect of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, which many
policy makers believe are a primary contributor to global warming. These
actions include:

-   Use of cleaner and more efficient diesel engines;

-   Reduction of energy needs on farms;

-   Use of biodiesel;

-   Low-till practices;

-   Involvement in conservation programs, which provide incentives to
    set aside thousands of acres of farmland for wildlife habitat;

-   Selling carbon credits to industries for approved management
    actions.

Probably most obviously, and most importantly, crops turn carbon dioxide
into oxygen. Further, new research suggests that irrigation has kept
croplands cool, countering to some extent the rising temperatures caused
by greenhouse gas emissions over the last half century.[^8]

**[Recommended Strategies to Address Potential Impacts]{.underline}**

Western water supplies are already inadequate to the demands of
agriculture, urban growth and environmental enhancement. Global climate
change, we're told, will further reduce those supplies.\
\
So how will we meet the ever-increasing demand for water in the West in
an era when there will be an ever-decreasing supply? Improved
conservation and efficiency by urban and agricultural water users is
certainly part of the solution, but only part.

1.  [Implement a Balanced Suite of Conservation and Supply Enhancement
    Actions]{.underline}

We believe that it is possible to meet the needs of cities and the
environment in a changing climate without sacrificing Western irrigated
agriculture. To achieve that goal, we must expand the water supply in
the West. There must be more water stored and available to farms and
cities. Maintaining the status quo simply isn't sustainable in the face
of unstoppable population growth, diminishing snow pack, increased water
consumption to support domestic energy, and increased environmental
demands.

It is simply ludicrous to believe that conservation alone will supply
enough water for the tens of millions of new residents expected to
arrive in Western cities during the coming decades. Farmers and ranchers
understand that conserved water cannot realistically be applied to
instream uses, as it will more likely be put to beneficial use by the
next downstream appropriator or held in carryover storage for the
following irrigation season.

Many water projects are ready and waiting to be developed in the
West[^9]. While conservation and recycling programs have done a
tremendous job of meeting new growth, still, only a small amount of new
water has been developed in the past 30 years. We cannot continue to
"conserve just a little more" forever. It's time to start developing and
[implementing]{.underline} the water infrastructure needed to cope with
a changing climate, meet the needs of a burgeoning population, and
support a healthy agricultural base in the West.

2.  [Streamline the Regulatory Process to Facilitate Development of New
    Infrastructure]{.underline}

Modern, integrated water storage and distribution systems can provide
tremendous physical and economic flexibility to address climate
transformation and population growth. However, this flexibility is
limited by legal, regulatory, or other institutional constraints, which
can take longer to address than actually constructing the physical
infrastructure[^10].

The often slow and cumbersome federal regulatory process is a major
obstacle to realization of projects and actions that could enhance
Western water supplies. In addition, there exists with agencies a
defeatist attitude that no dams or water supply projects will be built. 
So, there is no commitment to earnestly begin and engage the difficult
problems described above. The Family Farm Alliance wants to work with
Congress, federal agencies and other interested parties to build a
consensus for improving the regulatory process.

3.  [Prioritize Research Needs]{.underline}

Our country has tremendous, but limited, resources available to fix our
problems, so we must prioritize. One priority research items should be a
comprehensive validation of West-wide changes in climate change-driven
streamflow. This should be followed by quantification of the amount of
additional reservoir storage, conservation targets, etc required to
re-regulate this change in hydrology. This would quickly illustrate to
policy makers the need to start modernizing our water infrastructure.
This assessment should be accompanied by a comprehensive study of the
collective impacts of agricultural land and water changes in western
states over the last 10 years, as well as predicted trends. A study of
this sort may provide the type of hard findings that may help wake up
policy makers on the "big picture" ramifications of this issue.

**[Conclusion]{.underline}**  

Climate change could further strain fresh water supplies in the American
West. We must begin to plan for that now, and not wait until we are
forced to make decisions during a crisis. Relying on agriculture to be a
"shock absorber" to soften or eliminate the impending water shortage is
[not]{.underline} planning. It is a choice to put our heads in the sand
and hope for the best. It is a decision that could worsen the overall
impact of climate change on our nation's economy and security.

Millions of acres of barren land have been transformed into the most
efficient and productive agricultural system in the world. About 5
percent of the land area of the West is irrigated, and the Bureau of
Reclamation provides water to about one-fifth of that acreage. All of
this has been done for a total federal investment of \$11 billion. A
1998 study found that the economy of the United States receives a
greater than 100% return each year on this investment[^11].

Now is not the time to retreat from our investment. Now is the time to
enact sound policies that encourage continued investment in irrigated
agriculture. Allowing water-short cities to absorb farmers' water
supplies will significantly diminish domestic food production at exactly
the same time global warming is predicted to severely adverse impact
food production worldwide.

The U.S. recently became a net importer of food. The U.S., which once
fed much of the world, now imports more food than it exports. Food
production, like so many of our industries and services, is moving off
shore, and a large part of our security is moving with it.

Europeans aggressively protect their farms and food production
capability because they still remember the hungry years during and after
World War II when they relied on other nations, America in particular,
to feed them. The time has come -- indeed, it's long overdue -- for the
United States to similarly adopt an overriding national goal of
remaining self-sufficient in food production.  Policy decisions on a
wide range of issues ranging from taxation to the management of natural
resources should then be evaluated to be sure they are consistent with
that goal.  It's hard to imagine a simpler or more important step to
safeguard the American public.

Thank you.

[^1]: Climate Change 2050: Impacts on Runoff from the Salt and Verde
    River Systems. Presentation to the Family Farm Alliance Annual
    Conference, February 22, 2007, Dr. Robert C. Balling, Jr., School of
    Geographical Sciences, Arizona State University

[^2]: OUR CHANGING CLIMATE -- ASSESSING THE RISKS TO CALIFORNIA, A
    summary biennial report from the California Climate Change Center,
    2006.

[^3]: CLIMATE WARMING AND WATER MANAGEMENT ADAPTATION FOR CALIFORNIA,
    Stacy K. Tanaka et al, Department of Civil and Environmental
    Engineering, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
    University of California, Davis 95616

[^4]: COLORADO RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT: EVALUATING AND ADJUSTING TO
    HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY, National Research Council, Division on
    Earth and Life Studies, Water Science and Technology Board, 2007.

[^5]: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological
    Organization and the United Nations Environment Program.

[^6]: Professor emeritus of the Department of Forest, Range and Wildlife
    Science at Utah State University.

[^7]: ^?^ Professor Jack Schmidt, Utah State University, Dept. of
    Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, quoted in "Global Warming:
    What about water?", *Salt Lake City Tribune*, October 30, 2006.

[^8]: ^8^ Kueppers, L. M., M. A. Snyder, and L. C. Sloan (2007),
    Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate forcing by land-use
    change, *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, *34*, L03703,
    doi:10.1029/2006GL028679.

    ^?^ WESTERN WATER SUPPLY ENHANCEMENT DATABASE, Family Farm Alliance,
    2005.

[^9]:

[^10]: CLIMATE WARMING AND WATER MANAGEMENT ADAPTATION FOR CALIFORNIA,
    Stacy K. Tanaka et al, Department of Civil and Environmental
    Engineering, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
    University of California, Davis 95616

[^11]: That report and associated data was produced by Darryll Olsen,
    Ph.D. of the Pacific Northwest Project in Kennewick, Washington and
    Houshmand Ziari, Ph.D. of IRZ Consulting in Hermiston Oregon. The
    report was prepared for the Family Farm Alliance.