CCRI Workshop

Session 17 - Resources Management Decision Support

Wednesday December 4, 2002

Rapporteur -- Ronald J. Birk

Chapter 4 Overview - Susan Avery

Recognition of authors of Chapter 4

CCSP commitment -- syntheses of scientific results and production of
decision support resources response to national and regional needs

Analytical techniques

Historical data analysis

Scenarios

Climate modeling

Product development -- serves decision makers and results

Decision support -- provision of timely and useful information that
addresses specific questions being asked by a decision maker

-   Policy development and evaluation

-   Operational decision processes

-   Planning/adaptation/mitigation evaluations

Includes evaluation of what is known and with what degree of confidence

-   Context specific

-   Systematic approach

Natural Resource Management: responding to diverse interests for sharing
limited resources

{picture of people sharing a glass of water with straws}

Diagram/map of the 2002 Drought: Accumulated Precipitation: Water Year
2001 -- 2002

Highlights the importance of innovative adaptations of decision support
strategies

GIS output showing decision making -- multiple factors and evolving
societal context

Diagram of Interdisciplinary research program required

Proposed Framework

-   Promote sustained interactions with stakeholders

-   Identify regions, sectors, decision processes sensitive to climate

-   Develop indicators for assessing vulnerability and opportunities

-   Performa integrated research on regional and global changes

-   Develop data, information , analytic resources, and models to
    facilitate assessment given quantified scientific uncertainties

-   Investigation dissemination options for communicating results

NRC Recommendations

-   Develop research and observations framework that recognizes multiple
    stresses in decision making

-   Ensure an intimate connection between research operational
    activities and decision making

-   Engage ...

Experiments Under Way

-   Decision support Activities

    -   EPA Global Change Assessment Program

    -   NOAA Regional

    -   NASA Regional Earth

    -   National Building Blocks

    -   International Activities

Some lessons learned

-   Identify

-   Understand

-   Scales

-   Adaptation

-   Institutional capacity building

Progress Depends on

...

Increasing the Permeability of the Barrier between Research and
Decision/Management

-   Science \-\-\-- Decision/Management

-   Public versus Private Goods (roles??)

-   Objectively of science versus mobilizing stakeholders

-   Level of comfort in the science community

Ongoing support to processes (in addition to formulating processes)

Reservoir Management Decision Calendar

-   Gantt chart ....

Planning and operational issues -- balance of science and management

Deepening the role of science in the management of natural resources --
some examples

-   Effects of pollution from remote locations through long range
    transport

-   Watershed scale hydrologic models with ag and economic

Are Decision Support and Assessment the Same?

Syntheses of the state of integrated scientific knowledge in terms of
its implications for (society, decision making, policy)

-   Most effective when...

Potential Measures of Success

-   Papers

-   Stakeholders

-   Integrative research framework

-   Climate information

Decision Support -- An unfortunate Characterization

Calvin and Hobbes

Panelists:

Mike Slimak -- Overview and then panel (with wide range of perspectives)
provide inputs

Where is the integration in federal government?

Barbara Morehouse -- University of Arizona

Overall - ?? at first, as a class project it would get a "B", how to get
an "A" is more

Thoughts on Decision Support

-   The local scale is crucial {heavy emphasis on region (what is a
    region), northern hemisphere to international, pecan growers with
    orchards in AZ, GA and Iran

-   Relevance is not a simple concept

    -   Requires depth in stakeholder participation {ongoing sustained
        interactions)

-   Much experience has been accrued within regional integrated
    assessments

    -   Take advantage of it! {great opportunity to expand -- EPA, DOE,
        ....}

-   Usability cannot be shortchanged

    -   Requires sustained iteration {emphasis on both sustained and
        iteration -- work the feedback}

Vision -- one that really has stronger sense of social science and
stakeholder voices

Two Challenges: Science

Grappling with the long timeframe for regional model development

-   Need to sustain stakeholder involvement in the interim {need to get
    and keep people entrained}

Developing a regional science foundation allowing multi-scale insights

-   Monsoon dynamics (NAME) {need to key on monsoons}

-   Ecological persistence and change (NEON) {need tools like NEON --
    designing tools from the outset with collaboration with stakeholders
    is essential}

Two Challenges: The Public

Sustaining integrated public participation

-   RISA and similar programs provide bridges

    -   Impacts of variability and change across time/space

Developing and using good scenarios and narratives

-   Provide a means to incorporate stakeholder experience and
    perceptions of exposure to risk

    -   Address heuristics, cognitive illusions, etc...

William Easterling

Sees plans as a framework, a start ...not hung up in analysis of what is
missing...but more a venue for making the connection between the USGCRP
community and the community at large. Looking for the missing pieces in
the community to set "hooks" for additional connections.

Resource Management Aspects of Decision Support

Strengths

Measured synthesis welcomed as long as balanced {all physical,
biological and social sciences}

Engagement of stakeholders/decision makers in forming policy- and
operations-relevant questions {discussions about regional assessments
and their discontinuation}

Historical analysis {learning from past mistakes, seeing way forward in
climate changes --lost in modeling, some of the fundamental models comes
from looking back (not just forward), important to look at climate
change that has bee unfolding for several decades}

Resource ...

Mixed

-   Generality: anything goes as double edged sword {need understanding
    of the importance of more detailed information and plans, not to be
    painted into a corner}

-   Scenario Analysis: OK but avoid "gold standard" scenarios only?
    (avoid believing that the world is static -- same in 50 years as it
    is today, avoid environmental surprises, try to work wide range of
    scenarios to look at otherwise unexpected situations}

-   Emphasis on vulnerability indicators OK but beware of ambiguity (do
    they measure what you think?) {for example, look at population
    change as indicator of human consumption -- yields one scenario at
    national level, at local level it is an economic indicator,
    different stories at different scales

-   Target areas (air quality, water availability and quality, forest
    and wildlife management, drought, and health) good but why exclude
    agriculture? {impacts of CO2 on rice yield -- more drop out at high
    temperature -- new knowledge, helps color thinking on climate
    change, maybe the CO2 effect is not as good as we might have thought
    it was} good testbed for other methodologies

Weaknesses

-   Lack of "grand challenge" questions {is the joint consultation of
    society questions between stakeholders and science the right way to
    go, advice is to focus around questions}

-   Lack of international dimension {Martin Parry -- impacts of climate
    change do not stop at borders, greatly influenced by what happens
    globally,

-   Decision support for regional resource management as non sequitur to
    stated goal of identify national level decision issues {as currently
    stated -- no intellectual connection between national decision and
    regional options, progression of cascading scales to local action

-   Conception of uncertainty is weak

    -   Research may increase not decrease uncertainty { countless
        examples, role of clouds in climate is less well understood
        today than years ago, expected understanding of social change on
        regional change used to think that population and economic
        drives were dominant

    -   Silent on decision science tools:

    -   Many forms: competing explanations, incomplete knowledge scale
        uncertainty, model uncertainty {recent lessons from IPCC
        exercise, scale differences??}

Optimum temperature curve for plant growth in EPIC and CERES maize
{curves shown)

Two different drivers {getting to know model assumptions)

Kris Ebi (EPRI) -- Public Health

Definition of terms

Goals and objectives

Missed opportunities

Public Health Framework for Vulnerability and Adaptation

Current Vulnerability -- Adaptive Capacity -- Future Potential Impacts

Adaptation baseline is constantly changing

Vulnerability is expressed as binary -- for human systems vulnerability
is a continuum

Resilience -- not necessarily a good thing {El Nino in 1998 -- homeowner
lost everything -- going to rebuild like the last 5 times)

Objectives

-   Reduce significant uncertainties in climate science

-   Improve global climate observing systems

-   Develop

Alternative Objectives

-   The ultimate goal is to protect and enhance human wellbeing and the
    environment in the face of the threats and opportunities of climate
    variability and change.

-   Develop information,,,

-   Assess current strength....

-   Facilitate the develop.....

-   Facilitate adaptation

Chapter 4 -- Missed Opportunities

Generation of information on non-market impacts

Site and outcome specific

Long term prospective and retrospective records

Model development

Extension of integrated assessment models to include social systems

Proactive use of scenarios an integrated assessment modes to set
research agendas to provide timely information for future decisions

(run the models into the future -- and work backwards from the future
state)

Identification and inclusion of contextual factors

Integrations with other chapters of CCCRI and with the USGCRP -- can be
improved

Focus on climate science surveillance and response limits the
development of info critical to decision making for adaptation polices
and measures

-   Determination of least amount of information required to make a
    decision

-   Outcome and site specific

-   Decision can and are being made already

Understand how to incorporate decisions related to climate variability
and change within sectors

-   Lessons learned from responses to other stresses

Key decision maker questions

-   What to do more/less/better in the face climate variability and
    change? What not to do?

-   What to do differently?

Decision Support Research

-   Assess current vulnerability and adaptation

-   Project possible future vulnerability

-   Prioritize policies and measures

-   Determine and implement the actions needed to evaluation...\[staged
    implementation}

Prerequisites for Prevention -- John Last, 1998

-   An awareness that a problem exists

-   An understanding of the causes

-   A sense that the problem matters

-   The capability to control

-   The political will to deal with the problem

35-50 million people aware of arsenic in drinking water in Bangledesh

Bill O'Keefe -- Marshall Institute

Commend Administration for innovative forum for reviewing a strategic
plan

Getting better information and using it more effectively

Challenge is daunting -- probably no one right way to proceed

Need iterative process to make advances

Chapter 4 recognizes goals that may be too ambitious -- may need to set
expectations that are reasonable

Breakout sessions call for iterative processes {not just muddling
through -- may be required}

Recognition of importance of improved observation system -- high
priority -- unwavering commitment to highest standards of quality

Models have an undue influence on policy.

Undue emphasis on models -- even the best models have severe limitations
--

Until key parameters are improved, these models should not be used as
the only mechanism in decision processes

Validation is key

Until we have more validated models -- rational sequencing of activities
is required

Too much focus on future scenarios on response -- focus should be on
adaptation

Other than energy should be considered -- energy and economic policies
must be balanced

Alternatives to fossil fuels can be put in place with no adverse
economic impacts -- no basis of this belief

Management -- decision support tools can help best with good management
processes (including accountability and authority)

Responsibility is too diffuse -- priority setting is a negotiation
processes

Pragmatic -- loose collection of activities to true program management
is an important objectives

One deficiency -- drive for consensus has undesirable effect of shutting
out negative impacts

DOE -- red team approach

# Abby Young -- support to local governments

Mike -- important change -- voice of local groups

Appreciate acknowledgement of local governments

Engage local gov'ts to act now to reduce green house gases

Local gov't perspective

First gov't to adopt global warming reduction -- Toronto (20% reduction
below baseline effort)

140 cities and counties across US with strategies and long term plans

Why? Not mandated, not paid, other critical presses issues.

Two primary factors:

1.  They get it! Not members of science community, but know that
    evidence directs us to act now. Stakes are very high -- faced head
    on with impacts of extreme weather events, inundated storm water
    systems, overtaxed public health care systems, forced relocation (or
    loss of) ocean front property, interruption of services (energy,
    transportation, sewerage). Devastating natural disasters -- states
    and federal disaster funds cannot overcome the long term impacts.
    Local gov't officials do not have the luxury geographic distance
    from their constituency.

Costs of Impacts! Costs of adaptation. Mitigation has costs, but so does
adaptation. Better information on adaptation and limitation guide long
term planning and decision making.

2.  No brainer! Host of benefits for community. Offering alternatives to
    single vehicle travel improves air quality, energy audits improve.

Which strategies to pursue?

Life cycle costs on mitigation versus business as usual.

Air quality benefits ...

Different technologies or policies

Natural gas, oil, global job creation....

Need to look at relationship between mitigation and adaptation

What level of adaptation costs could be saved in mitigation strategies

What are impacts of timing for strategies

Need to look at those kinds of scenarios

Four conclusions:

1.  Impacts assessments need to expand upon what has already been done

2.  Impacts must focus on urban areas

3.  Costs of impacts and costs of adaptation need to be compared to
    mitigation

4.  Benefits need to be balanced

5.  Need more than a "token" speaker from the local government community
    at major events

# Questions Session

1.  Bob Libsey National Weather Service

Ed Cherichec -- climate variability and climate change are
interconnected

Climate variability is not a solved problem -- more mature than climate
change

Global change science -- very little that can be said on a regional to
local level

Struck by examples for corn growers -- year to year variability in
precipitation (as well as temperature)

Fertile area for gaining experience and for testing models and ideas for
immediate good

2.  Cynthia Rosenwieg -- GISS

Regional assessments -- national in scope and regionally focused. Not
building on those will lead to an unevenness to expanded work

Foci chosen in chapter -- include agriculture, carbon sequestration,
adaptation,

Urban as a focus -- neglected area -- centers of both mitigation and
adaptation

Earlier work based on sector by sector will not work -- urban areas are
integrated

3.  Jurgen Garbrecht -- USDA

Stakeholder and Scientist locked in room -- DSS will come out

Science discovery is not conducive to decision support

Type of science research that leads to decision support is not taken
into consideration

4.  Ken Colburn -- North American

Six of northeastern states have partnered to work with Canada

Regional climate modeling and support tools to determine when to what
and where?

Start immediately to connect ...

High stakes game of Wheel of Fortune --

5.  Keith Dixon -- NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Disparity between global and national to regional focus

Pushing the models to far

Need to have high resolution models will be difficult to accomplish on
10 year time scale (let alone the 4 years for CCRI) given available
resources

Need mechanism for prioritization

6.  Jeanne Bloomfield -- National Defense Modeling

Need to quantify levels of uncertainty

Day to day operations need less uncertainty goals

Start defining levels of uncertainty that are needed

7.  Craig Schaffer -- National Park Service

National assessment -- produced nice books.

Took all results and sent them to national parks -- were used as
national reference.

?? whether products could be produced for specific audiences?

Web based solutions

Timely information and least amount of information for decision making

Park managers need information now

Consider developing web sites for particular resource management
audiences

Mike -- federal managers of Global Change Program need to know
communities position on the national assessments