**HOV Pooled-Fund Study 2006 Annual Meeting**

Project Proposal Form

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| **Project Title:** HOV Facility   |                                   |
| Demand Estimation Techniques      |                                   |
| Project Number: 1                 |                                   |
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| Statement of Problem:             |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| With the increased scrutiny that  |                                   |
| many HOV (including HOT) lanes    |                                   |
| are now facing around the         |                                   |
| country, reliable methods for     |                                   |
| forecasting HOV/HOT demand for    |                                   |
| proposed facilities are even more |                                   |
| critical. HOV operating agencies  |                                   |
| generally use transportation      |                                   |
| planning models to perform        |                                   |
| forecast and estimation of demand |                                   |
| on HOV and HOT facilities. FHWA   |                                   |
| has sponsored efforts in the past |                                   |
| to develop relatively easy-to-use |                                   |
| "sketch planning" techniques for  |                                   |
| estimating HOV demand. One        |                                   |
| method, developed by Charles      |                                   |
| River Associates Incorporated     |                                   |
| (CRA), and documented in the      |                                   |
| report "*Predicting Travel        |                                   |
| Volumes for HOV Priority          |                                   |
| Techniques: User's Guide*", April |                                   |
| 1982, proved to be an effective   |                                   |
| model, but is 20 years old. A     |                                   |
| second FHWA sponsored method,     |                                   |
| "*QuickHOV*", was developed in    |                                   |
| 1996 by Dowling Associates.       |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| What are the techniques, models,  |                                   |
| and tools available for           |                                   |
| estimating demand on HOV and HOT  |                                   |
| facilities? How well do those     |                                   |
| techniques, models, and tools     |                                   |
| perform? What are their strengths |                                   |
| and weaknesses? Does any          |                                   |
| particular technique perform      |                                   |
| better than others in estimating  |                                   |
| demand for specific types of HOV  |                                   |
| facilities (e.g.                  |                                   |
| barrier-separated versus          |                                   |
| non-barrier separated)? Can those |                                   |
| techniques and tools be used for  |                                   |
| estimating demand of HOT          |                                   |
| facilities? Can those techniques  |                                   |
| be used for estimating demand of  |                                   |
| HOV facilities with implications  |                                   |
| of hybrids? What are the          |                                   |
| additional techniques and         |                                   |
| procedures that can be used to    |                                   |
| supplement and thus improve the   |                                   |
| results from those tools? How may |                                   |
| those techniques or tools be      |                                   |
| further improved? These are some  |                                   |
| of the questions to be answered   |                                   |
| by this study.                    |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| The objectives of this project    |                                   |
| are to: (1) review and synthesize |                                   |
| the techniques, models, and tools |                                   |
| that are currently available for  |                                   |
| forecasting HOV/HOT demand and    |                                   |
| (2) provide recommendations for   |                                   |
| further research to advance       |                                   |
| practices in this subject area.   |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| Suggested Approach:               |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| The following is an initial list  |                                   |
| of tasks to be performed:         |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| [Task A. Identify Existing Demand |                                   |
| Estimation                        |                                   |
| Techniques:]{.underline}          |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| > The focus of this task is to    |                                   |
| > identify and review existing    |                                   |
| > HOV/HOT demand estimation       |                                   |
| > techniques, models, and tools.  |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| [Task B. Synthesize Demand        |                                   |
| Estimation Techniques and         |                                   |
| Practices:]{.underline}           |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| > This task will focus on         |                                   |
| > synthesizing the strengths and  |                                   |
| > weaknesses of existing          |                                   |
| > techniques, models, tools, and  |                                   |
| > agency practices. The           |                                   |
| > information will be gathered by |                                   |
| > interviewing: (1) public        |                                   |
| > agencies and private            |                                   |
| > organizations who have          |                                   |
| > experience with estimating      |                                   |
| > HOV/HOT demand and (2) vendors  |                                   |
| > and developers of popular       |                                   |
| > demand estimation software      |                                   |
| > tools. The interviews will      |                                   |
| > focus on collecting information |                                   |
| > on the algorithms used in each  |                                   |
| > model, performance,             |                                   |
| > flexibility, strengths and      |                                   |
| > weaknesses with applying the    |                                   |
| > model to HOV/HOT facilities,    |                                   |
| > and other pros and cons of      |                                   |
| > using the model. The            |                                   |
| > information collection will     |                                   |
| > also include how well the model |                                   |
| > estimates the demand under      |                                   |
| > different types of HOV          |                                   |
| > facilities in different         |                                   |
| > operating environments (i.e.,   |                                   |
| > dense urban area versus         |                                   |
| > suburban area; radial versus    |                                   |
| > circumferential freeway, etc.). |                                   |
| > Findings of this task will be   |                                   |
| > summarized in a synthesis       |                                   |
| > report.                         |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| [Task C. Develop a Research White |                                   |
| Paper:]{.underline}               |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| > This task will prepare a        |                                   |
| > research white paper outlining  |                                   |
| > research findings and           |                                   |
| > recommendations. The task will  |                                   |
| > also identify any additional    |                                   |
| > features if available that      |                                   |
| > could be incorporated into the  |                                   |
| > current techniques/tools to     |                                   |
| > make them more useful for       |                                   |
| > practitioners. The white paper  |                                   |
| > should also outline further     |                                   |
| > research needs and next steps   |                                   |
| > to a series of initiatives to   |                                   |
| > further research, development,  |                                   |
| > or validation with regard to    |                                   |
| > HOV/HOT demand estimation       |                                   |
| > techniques.                     |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| Products:                         |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -   A white paper                 |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -   Outreach materials            |                                   |
|     (Presentation, Brochure, and  |                                   |
|     Fact Sheet)                   |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| End Users (Product Customer):     |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -   The intended audience         |                                   |
|     includes representative state |                                   |
|     DOTs and others having a role |                                   |
|     in the planning, development, |                                   |
|     operation and performance     |                                   |
|     monitoring of HOV facilities. |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -   Target end users include      |                                   |
|     transportation planners       |                                   |
|     involved in the study of      |                                   |
|     planning and implementation   |                                   |
|     of new HOV/HOT facilities and |                                   |
|     converting existing HOV       |                                   |
|     facilities to HOT lanes.      |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| Training, Outreach, and           |                                   |
| Distribution Plan:                |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -Outreach and awareness as to the |                                   |
| availability of the products      |                                   |
| through professional              |                                   |
| organizations.                    |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -Publicized through FHWA          |                                   |
| Divisions, Resource Centers and   |                                   |
| related program activities.       |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -The products will be available   |                                   |
| via the Internet.                 |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| Rough Order of Magnitude Cost:    | Comments:                         |
|                                   |                                   |
| Person Hours:                     | -Direct costs include limited     |
|                                   | funding to accommodate any        |
| Labor Cost: [\$]{.underline}      | interaction and review of         |
|                                   | practitioners on the development  |
| Direct Costs: [\$]{.underline}    | of this product and to obtain any |
|                                   | available information from        |
| Total Cost: [\$                   | agencies via interviews and       |
| 120,000]{.underline}              | on-site visits to support         |
|                                   | development of case studies.      |
|                                   |                                   |
|                                   | -Support initial distribution of  |
|                                   | limited number of copies to each  |
|                                   | State DOT.                        |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| In-Kind Support or Other Funding  |                                   |
| (Beyond SP&R):                    |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -FHWA and pooled fund             |                                   |
| participants technical support    |                                   |
| and project management in the     |                                   |
| development of the project        |                                   |
| proposal, scope and product       |                                   |
| development.                      |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| Suggested Schedule for Major      |                                   |
| Milestones:                       |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| -12 months                        |                                   |
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| Benefits:                         |                                   |
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