**Veteran Population 2007 (VetPop2007) County Estimates and Projections
Technical Notes**

Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Policy and Planning

Office of the Actuary

This is a brief overview of how the Office of Actuary (OACT) has
calculated estimates of current, and projections of the future, number
of living veterans and veteran deaths by county and Veteran Integrated
Service Network (VISN) from 2000 to 2030. OACT also has computed the
number of living veterans by Congressional Districts (CDs) for the 110th
Congress. The variables and file structures of the outputs in the Excel
PivotTables and SAS datasets are described below.

**1. Variable Definitions**

Excel worksheets on the county-level veteran population include the
following variables:

-   **AGE GROUP**: 4 age groups (\<44, 45-64, 65-84, 85+).

-   **COUNTY, STATE**: County name followed by 2-letter state
    abbreviation

-   **DATE**: Indicates the 32 time points of the estimates --- 4/1/2000
    and 9/30/2000 to 9/30/2030

-   **FIPS Code**: State/county 5-digit FIPS codes. The first two digits
    are the state code and the last three digits are the county code.

-   **GENDER**: Male or female

-   **STATE**: 50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Island
    Areas, and Foreign countries

-   **VISN**: Veteran Integrated Service Network (VISN) numbers, after
    January 22, 2002: 1-12, 15-23, and \"90\" for 2 Island Areas
    (American Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands) and Foreign countries.

Note:

1)  Age is measured as \"rounded age\" or \"age at nearest birthday\"
    (e.g., age 56 is age 55.5 to 56.4), [except]{.underline} for
    4/1/2000, which is \"age attained\" or \"age at last birthday\"
    (e.g., age 56 is 56.0 to 56.9).

2)  The term \"Veterans\" [includes]{.underline} those who served in the
    active duty military, Coast Guard, uniformed Public Health Service,
    and the uniformed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
    reservists called to active duty, and those disabled while on active
    duty training. \"Veterans\" [excludes]{.underline} those
    dishonorably discharged, those whose active duty was for training
    only, and those on active duty at the estimated dates at the
    estimated dates.

3)  The county structure used in VetPop2007 is the same as the county
    structure from Census 2000. Seven jurisdictions --- the District of
    Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana
    Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Foreign countries --- are not
    counties, but these are treated as counties in our table. Therefore,
    we have 3,147 \"counties\": 3,140 counties plus the 7 jurisdictions
    listed above.

4)  Two counties have been changed since the Decennial Census 2000
    (4/1/2000). One is Broomfield County in Colorado which was created
    in 2001 and the other one is City of Clifton Forge, Virginia which
    was reverted to become an incorporated town in Alleghany County
    in 2001. The changes for these two counties were incorporated in the
    VetPop2007 model.

**2. File Structure and Formats**

**PivotTables:** This Technical Notes provide background information for
the county data. All of the data are in Excel PivotTable formatted
worksheets. Begin by dragging buttons from the northwest corner of a
table (\"page pivots\") to row or column headings to get a feel for the
flexibility that the PivotTable tool provides. You can design the table
you want by rearranging variables (buttons) to define new rows and
columns.

**Cell Definitions:** Both State and VISN tables display county-level
veteran population data, classified by 4 age groups and 2 gender groups
over the 30.5-year period.

There are PivotTable buttons for all of the grouping variables, such as
AGE GROUP and GENDER. Both VISN and State pivot tables provide estimates
and projections as of

September 30 of each year, except for census year, 2000, when there are
estimates for two time points --- 4/1/2000 and 9/30/2000.

**3. County Estimation & Projection Methodology**

> **Living Veterans = Number of Veterans using Ratio Method x Foreign
> Born Immigrant Factor x Armed Force Factor x Residual Factor x Katrina
> Factor**

**A**. **Number of Veterans using Ratio Method:** The county-level
veteran population projections were based on the Ratio Method (RM) of
disaggregating the state-level veteran population projections down to
the county-level, using the ratio of veterans to general population
(V/P). The state-level veteran population projections are taken from the
VetPop2007 model.

RM assumes that the changing ratio of veterans to population (V/P) in
projection years relative to the ratio of V/P in the baseline date
(4/1/2000) is equal at both the county level and the state level. Here
is the Ratio Method equation (1) for the 2009 projection year.

$\frac{\frac{V_{(C,\text{2009})}}{P_{(C,\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(C,\text{2000})}}{P_{(C,\text{2000})}}}\  = \ \frac{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}}$
(1)

where

*V~(C,\ 2009)~:* Veteran population in County as of 9/30/2009

*P~(C,\ 2009~)*: Population in County as of 9/30/2009 from W&P 2006\*

*V~(C,\ 2000)~:* Veteran population in County as of 4/1/2000 from Census
2000

*P~(C,\ 2000)~:* Population in County as of 4/1/2000 from W&P 2006

*V~(St,\ 2009)~:* Veteran population in State as of 9/30/2009 from
VetPop2007

*P~(St,\ 2009)~:* Population in State as of 9/30/2009 from W&P 2006

*V~(St,\ 2000)~:* Veteran population in State as of 4/1/2000 from Census
2000

*P~(St,\ 2000)~:* Population in State as of 4/1/2000 from W&P 2006

\* The projected general population at the county level and the state
level (in this case 9/30/2009) is derived from time series data
developed by Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. because they project up to
2030 at the state and county level.

Each term in equation (1) is known, except *V~(C,\ 2009).~* Solving for
*V~(C,\ 2009)~*~,~

$V_{(C,\text{2009})} = P_{(C,\text{2009})}\  \times \ \left\lbrack \frac{V_{(C,\text{2000})}}{P_{(C,\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack\  \times \ \left\lbrack \frac{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}} \right\rbrack$
(2)

Equation (2) gives for the projected county veteran population as of
9/30/2009. The county projection is calculated by gender and 15
five-year age groups, yielding 30 cells for each county.

**B. Foreign Born Immigrant Factor (FBF):** Foreign-born immigrants (FB)
are much less likely to be veterans, especially recent immigrants.
Therefore, we applied different weights to counties with a higher
percentage of foreign born immigrants.

$$\text{FBF}_{(C,\text{2000})} = \frac{(1 - \frac{\text{FB}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{FB}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}$$

FB: Foreign Born immigrants between 1990 and 2000 at the county level
and state level\
P: General Population

The FB factor is by gender and 5 age groups for each county

**C. Armed Force Factor (AFF):** The counties with a higher percentage
of armed forces have a higher number of veterans, so the factor is
greater than 1.0 for counties with a higher percentage of armed forces
and less than 1.0 for counties with a lower percentage of armed forces.

$\text{AFF}_{(C,\text{2000})} = \text{Exp}\ \left\lbrack 1 - \frac{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack = \text{Exp}\ \left\lbrack \frac{(\frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})} - (\frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack$\
\
The AF factor is by gender for each county.

**D. Residual Factor (RF):** There are some other unknown factors that
we were not able to measure explicitly, such as county migration rate,
race, and income. The Residual Factor counts for unknown
characteristics.

Actual Veterans\
RF =
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--\
Estimated value from RM x FBF x AFF\
\
The RF is by gender and 2 age groups (under 65 and 65+) for each county.

See the county documentation for more detailed methodology.

**E. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Factor:** We studied the 117 counties
designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as eligible for
individual or public assistance and found that the general population
data for year 2006 that we used to calculate veterans are some different
than what Census estimated. The general population data from Woods &
Poole (W&P) is used to calculate veteran numbers from year 2000 to 2030.
The Census estimates are the latest available data we have for general
population, but it doesn't project later years. Therefore, for some of
these hurricane counties, we used the general population data from both
Census and W&P by giving more weight on the Census data in year 2006 and
diminishing the Census weight in year 2012.

**4. 110th Congressional District**

The projections of the veteran population by Congressional Districts by
(CDs) for the 110th Congress are used for the Geographical Distribution
of the VA Expenditures (GDX). The GDX shows veteran population and VA
expenditure data for each state, county, and Congressional District.\
\
The Census 110th Congressional District Summary File lists veteran
population by CD (by gender and two age groups) for all counties. Most
of the counties belong to one CD, but 446 counties are in more than one
CD. For example, there are 18 CDs in Los Angeles County and 11 CDs in
Cook County, Illinois.\
\
The estimates of the veteran population for the 110th CD are done for
4/1/2000 to 9/30/2030 by gender and 2 age groups (17-64 & 65+). The
assumption is that the geography of county boundaries and the110th CD
boundaries will remain the same from 2000 to 2030. The 446 counties that
are in more than one CD have to be proportionally redistributed in 2000
to 2030, based on 2000 Census data by gender and 2 age groups. More
detailed information can be found in the county technical documentation.

**5. County-level Veteran Deaths Methodology**

The county-level veteran deaths are derived from the state-level veteran
deaths, taken from VetPop2007. The county-level deaths for a state are
calculated by applying a state-level annual death rate to the number of
estimated living veterans in that county by gender and 15 five-year age
groups.

$$q_{\text{St}}\  = \ \frac{d_{\text{St}}}{l_{\text{St}}}$$

$d_{\text{St}}$= Death (state-level) occurred during FY\
$l_{\text{St}}$= Living veterans (state-level) at the beginning of FY\
\
\
Therefore, the county-level death equation is:\
$d_{\text{Co}}\  = \ l_{\text{Co}}\  \times \ q_{\text{St}}$

**6. A Single SAS File with All County-Level Veteran Population Data**

A file in PC/SAS format, called VP2007_County_Lives.sas7bdat,
complements the Excel county veteran population tables. (This SAS file
was written using version 9 of PC/SAS software.) All county-level
veteran population data are contained in this file; therefore,
manipulation of data is easier when all counties, states, or VISNs must
be analyzed simultaneously, and file size becomes larger than Excel can
accommodate. Although the SAS and Excel files are different in terms of
format, they are identical quantitatively. The variables included on the
county veteran population **SAS file** (VP2007_County_Living.sas7bdat)
are shown below. Although some variable names are different from those
shown on Excel PivotTables, the correspondence should be clear from the
variable definitions provided:

**FIPS**: state/county 5-digit FIPS codes. xxyyy format where xx = state
and yyyy= county code

**STATE**: 50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Island Areas,
and Foreign countries

**VISN:** Veteran Integrated Service Network (VISN) numbers, after
January 23, 2002: 1-12, 15-23, and \"90\" for 2 Island Areas (American
Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands) and Foreign countries.

**Sector:** Sector Areas for Capital Asset Realignment for Enhanced
Services (CARES) program

**County_Name:** county name (in alpha character format) followed by
2-letter state abbreviation

**State:** State names

**Gender:** Male or female

**Age_Group:** age in fifteen 5-year age groups (\<20, 20-24, 25-29,...,
80-84, 85+)

**Age_Group_4\_:** age in 4 age groups (17-44, 45-64, 65-84, 85+)

**Veterans:** county-level, veteran population

**Date:** Indicates the 32 time points of the estimates---4/1/2000 and
9/30/2000 to 9/30/2030

**[Note]{.underline}:**

1.  The ages of veterans in foreign countries may seem a little high
    because they are developed from the C&P Master file. The ages of
    veterans in the C&P Master file are relatively higher than ages of
    general population.

2.  More detailed information on Ratio Method, Foreign-born immigrant
    factors, Armed Force factor, Residual factor, and descriptions of
    the VetPop2007 model can be found in county technical documentation.

3.  If you need data by both STATE and VISN, follow the instruction or
    call Mike Wells.

    a.  Select PivotTable Wizard by right clicking the mouse in any
        PivotTable area

    b.  Select Layout

    c.  Drag the VISN or STATE box from the right side to the "page
        pivots" (northwest corner of a table)

4.  For questions, call Mike Wells at (202) 461-5829 or send an e-mail
    to <VetPop@va.gov>.