**REPORT OF THE INTRA-AMERICAS SEA INITIATIVE (IASI)**

**RESEARCH PLANNING MEETING**

University of Miami

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

Miami, FL

October 21‑23, 1998

**IASI Organizing Committee**

K. Leaman, R. Ginsburg, Co‑chairs

C. Andrade

J. Ault

J. Calderon

R. Cowen

N. DeGroot

M. Donoso

N. Ehrhardt

C. Fermin

T. Lee

C. Mooers

V. Restrepo

J. Sheinbaum

K. Sullivan

D. Suman

P. Swart

A. Wagh

D. Wilson

C. Zhang

**Executive Summary**

\(1\) [Background to the IASI Initiative]{.underline}

Within the last year a large group of scientific investigators,
representing a number of US, Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) agencies
and organizations, has formed around common interests in the study of
the Intra‑Americas Sea (IAS);i.e. the combined Caribbean Sea, Gulf of
Mexico, Straits of Florida and adjacent waters. These discussions have
continued through a number of national and international meetings
supported by various agencies and held in the U.S. (e.g., University of
Miami) or other countries (Mexico ‑ Transports and Linkages of the
Intra‑Americas Sea, Cozumel, Mexico, partial support by IOC and MMS;
Panama‑numerous meetings related to scientific problems in Central and
South America, partial support by NSF (IAI), UNESCO and other agencies
through CATHALAC \[see below\]).

From January through April, 1998 these investigators carried out a
series of seminars (held at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of
Marine and Atmospheric Science) in order to evaluate the existing state
of knowledge of the region. These seminars involved a wide range of
scientific disciplines, including meteorology and climatology,
hydrology, physical / chemical / biological / geological oceanography,
and coastal resources, and presentations were made by both U.S. and LAC
scientists. A limited amount of support for LAC‑scientist travel to
these meetings was provided by international governmental and
non‑governmental organizations such as UNESCO and CATHALAC (Water Center
for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean).

These seminars emphasized cross‑disciplinary issues, such as the
downstream transport of larvae of important species (for commercial or
other reasons) from breeding grounds in the southern Caribbean towards
the U.S., as well as other interdisciplinary subjects of broad
scientific interest. It became clear during the course of these seminars
that \"on our doorstep\" there exists a fascinating collection of
scientific problems that are even now only poorly understood. Although
of intrinsic scientific interest, these problems also have significant
societal impacts when they affect fisheries or coastal environmental
pollution, for example. A central result of these discussions is the
clear realization that the IAS must be considered as an interconnected
environment; things that occur off the coasts of South America influence
the environment of, for example, the Gulf of Mexico or the southeastern
U.S. The IAS is as well a convenient \"test platform\" to evaluate
observing systems since it is both relatively enclosed and relatively
well‑instrumented over at least part of its boundary.

The above issues pose the challenge to environmental scientists of
coordinating research in a broad range of disciplines, involving US and
LAC scientists from many institutions. The Caribbean Sea is particularly
challenging because of the large number of countries involved.

One important result of the aforementioned seminar series was to produce
a consensus as to four over‑arching research themes that are of central
importance in the IAS. These themes are described below and were the
central focus of the research planning conference described in this
document. Each theme has attached to it a working group made up of
interested scientists from the region.

The overall goal of IASI is to:

***\"Improve our understanding of the connectivity and societal impacts
of climate variability, oceanography and ecology in the Intra‑Americas
Sea and adjacent regions.\"***

The initiative as a whole can be defined in terms of the following
prospectus:

***IASI (Intra‑Americas Sea Initiative) is an initiative to advance our
scientific understanding of complex environmental problems in the IAS of
the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Multidisciplinary environmental
problems will be attacked through the cooperative efforts of Caribbean,
Central and South American environmental scientists along with their
U.S. counterparts. The existing, relatively limited human resources
mandate that IASI include a major training component at the
scientific‑technical level to assist countries of the region to develop
a sustainable scientific infrastructure for environmental science. At
present, IASI has already started training and information‑transfer
activities between a few U.S. universities and laboratories with
well‑developed links to countries of the region. IASI, while not
primarily an initiative in social scientific research, will provide
scientific results in formats optimized to serve as input to economic
and other social sciences models***.

The objectives of IASI are:

1.  ***To improve the scientific basis for environmental management.***

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1.  ***To improve regional observational and modeling systems, and to
    increase their accessibility to the wider community.***

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1.  ***To facilitate interactions and information exchange among the
    scientific community, relevant agencies and the end users.***

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1.  ***To participate in capacity‑building in countries of the
    Intra‑Americas Sea.***

\(2\) [Purpose and Organization of the IASI Planning Meeting October
21‑23, 1998]{.underline}

The major purpose of this meeting was to carry forward the development
of a set of four focused research themes by these working groups in an
environment of free and supportive exchange of ideas. The ultimate
goalis to develop a multinational and multidisciplinary 10‑year research
strategy to achieve the goals and objectives of the Intra‑Americas Sea
Initiative. The organization of the meeting was carried out by a
multinational and multidisciplinary group of twenty scientists from the
region, co‑chaired by Drs. K. Leaman and R. Ginsburg. Logistic and
administrative support for the event was provided by the Rosenstiel
School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) and the Water Center
for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC).
Financial support was contributed by the US National Science Foundation
and by the University of Miami (Office of the Provost).

\(3\) [Major Conclusions]{.underline}

\(1\) Many previous efforts to research/manage coastal environments have
suffered from fragmentation. The IAS offers a unique opportunity to
study a geographically limited (i.e., manageable) region (2‑hour flight
time to most of the IAS) that already has a nucleus of specialists in a
full range of specialties in a holistic manner that provides information
to support regional industries (e.g., tourism, fisheries, shipping).

\(2\) Physical/biological linkages in the IAS are poorly understood, if
at all. Far from suggesting observations to support forecast models, we
are in some cases as yet unable to frame the appropriate questions. In
many coastal areas this is in part due to a severe lack of coastal maps
and resource assessments.

\(3\) Our understanding of the multi‑level interconnections between IAS
coastal zones and the adjacent open‑ocean and land environments is
seriously deficient.

\(4\) A group of physical and biological phenomena have been identified
(as well as associated geochemical and geological phenomena) that have
significant societal impacts in the IAS and whose study and prediction
will be of significant societal benefit to countries of the IAS.

\(5\) Understanding and prediction of these phenomena will be enhanced
by the establishment of a regional observing system (IAS‑GOOS). To
ensure success this effort must initially emphasize a limited set of
high‑priority areas, such as provision of synoptic maps of mesoscale
variability and surface mixed layer properties that not only may have
research importance but also can provide direct input to operational
prediction/forecast systems.

\(6\) In order to make IASI results of wide applicability and
accessibility, IASI must include within its framework efforts to
increase the level of training of scientific/operational personnel
throughout the region. For the same reasons, IASI must support strong
network ties and inter­communications capabilities among all
investigators in the IAS as a clearinghouse for information.

\(4\) [Recommendations for the Coming Decade]{.underline}

The attainment and use of better information on the IAS environment to
serve as input to forecast/prediction models and to provide proactive
capabilities against environmental deterioration serves as a basis for
these recommendations for the coming decade. To this end, a number of
tasks must be carried out.

We must further develop and expand the scientific understanding of key
identified processes in the IAS to support and further efforts of the
region to improve the sustainable development of their resources.

We should establish a functioning, feasible regional GOOS and begin to
carry out observations on a regular and sustained basis; these
observations must be synthesized into forecast models that provide us
with predictive capabilities for phenomena with the greatest IAS
societal impacts. In those cases where more basic research into the
phenomenon in question may be required, IAS‑GOOS should be designed in
such a way as to facilitate this basic research.

We must increase capacity‑building efforts in the IAS in order to
strengthen IAS research/operational infrastructure. Only in this manner
will IASI participants be able to utilize fully the information provided
by an IAS‑GOOS.

We must implement and support through IASI an efficient network for the
exchange of information. Parts of this network (e.g., the IAI TCCC
network in CATHALAC, the AOML library electronic exchange) already
exist. These must be strengthened and expanded.

**Table of Contents**

I. Planning Meeting: Scientific and Societal Factors Influencing the
IASI

II\. Summary of Working Group Themes

> A. Working Group I
>
> Theme: Physical interactions of air, sea and land in the
> Intra‑Americas Sea.
>
> B. Working Group II
>
> Theme: Larval recruitment pathways, adult productivity bio‑physical
> linkages and their influences on the Intra‑Americas Sea fisheries.
>
> C. Working Group III
>
> Theme: Interconnec tions and sustainability of coastal environments
> and resources.
>
> D. Working Group IV
>
> Theme: A regional global observing system (GOOS) for the
> Intra‑Americas Sea.

III\. Summary of Principal Findings and Recommendations

IV\. Future Actions and Activities.

V. References

VI\. List of Attendees

VII\. Additional Contributors (these are e.g. the Cubans, who sent in
contributions but who

could not attend).

> VIII\. Appendix 1 Meeting agenda
>
> IX Appendix 2 Collected summaries of participants\' and attendees\'
> working contributions.

**I. Planning Meeting:**

**Scientific and Societal Factors Influencing the IASI**

It will be clear from this report that a mixture of scientific and
societal‑impacts considerations has governed the deliberations of the
IASI planning meeting.

From a scientific standpoint, IASI provides an opportunity and framework
for oceanographers and other scientists to carry out multi‑disciplinary
studies (including, but not limited to, the oceanographic
sub‑disciplines as well as meteorology, climatology, hydrology, etc.) in
a geo­graphically restricted (i.e., "manageable") environmental system.

With the inclusion of a regional IAS‑GOOS, we would be able to do the
types of important process studies described in this document in a
\"new\" mold (more akin to some meteorological studies where an
observational system is already in place), rather than classical
\"expedition‑mode\" oceanography. The ultimate goal of course is to
develop a feasible, functioning observation / assimilation / modeling
system with predictive capabilities.

However, except within the realm of basic science, such efforts are of
little value unless they can be of use to societies within the IAS. In
that sense, none of these societies can be treated in isolation. In
fact, one of the most important realizations to come out of this meeting
is the degree to which IAS societies are interconnected, both through
sociological factors such as population migration, trade, and tourism,
as well as through various physical factors. Of the fact that population
movement and other sociological aspects will play an increasing role in
this interconnectedness there can be no doubt. By some predictions, at
least 35% of the U.S. population will trace its origins to Latin America
and the Caribbean within the next few decades.

Physically it is clear that all IAS societies are closely connected.
Populations are advected through the Caribbean, thereby replenishing
downstream populations and/or homogenizing gene pools. (Of course,
pollution is also carried to downstream populations).

To support the development of, and to make a measureable impact on,
important regional industries such as fisheries and tourism, decision
makers need to make use of scientifically derived predictive
information. However, many societies find it difficult to evolve from
the trial‑and‑error mode of planning and to make use of environmental
information; in fact, one general goal of IASI will be to raise (e.g.,
through its educational aspects) the \"environmental consciousness\" of
IAS societies. Consequently, IASI, although a scientifically oriented
initiative, will undoubtedly benefit societal development in the region.

**II. Summary of Working Group Themes**

**A. Working Group I**

**Theme: Physical interactions of air, sea and land in the
Intra‑Americas Sea.**

Participants: J. Ochoa (Co‑Chair), R. Watlington (Co‑Chair), S. Paton
(Rapporteur), B. Albrecht, S. Anderson, D. Andregge, J. Edson, D.
Enfield, C. Garcia‑Saez, J. Pabon, H. Peters, B. Johns, K. Leaman, S.
Murray, T. Townsend (also in Theme 4), V. Vidal, C. Zhang

As described in the background information above, based on discussions
held at RSMAS and at other meetings (e.g. Cozumel, November 1997) a
survey was sent to all potential participants in early summer 1998. This
survey requested individuals to provide the meeting organizers with what
were thought to be the significant and important areas where research
into physical processes and bio‑physical linkages is either ongoing or
could be profitably pursued in the future.

Responses to this initial request are provided in Appendix 2. Based on
these responses the meeting organizers for Theme 1 were able to
prioritize a number of important research issues (here roughly organized
by time scale), including:

\(1\) The variability and importance of eddy fields in the IAS to the
overall circulation and the interconnections between eddy fields in the
Caribbean Sea proper and those both upstream and downstream.

\(2\) Understanding/predicting the IAS current fields to aid in
predicting larval/pollution transport paths. (Important for Theme 2).

\(3\) The mutual influence of the IAS on/by tropical storms in the
region, including extreme sea states and landfall. (Important for Theme
3).

\(4\) Structure, variability and mechanisms of atmospheric transport of
water vapor over the region, and relation to the Western Hemisphere Warm
Pool, heat and salt balances in the IAS. Sea/land interactions with the
ITCZ.

\(5\) Transport of mass (heat) and important chemical species through
the Caribbean and passages (e.g., Windward Passage).

\(6\) The long‑term relationship (\>3 yrs) between variations in upper
layer dynamic height/sea level over the Atlantic and Caribbean.

\(7\) Longer term (e.g., decadal and longer) variation in IAS
temperature/salinity dtermined by O~2~ isotope levels in coral.
Long‑term variations in sea level.

A summary of these research issues was then returned to the
participants, who were then asked in advance of the meeting to locate
their interests in these topics within the framework of the following
questions:

\(1\) What physical processes or phenomena are least understood in terms
of their impact on your environment? What is the \"state of knowledge\"
of these processes, both locally and around the IAS?

\(2\) What physical processes or phenomena have the greatest impact or
influence on your environment, whether in purely physical terms or in
relation to areas such as disasters, tourism, economy, etc?

\(3\) What physical processes or phenomena that are important in your
locale are most interconnected to similar processes taking place in
other regions of the IAS?

The review of the contributions received in answer to these questions
served as a basis for discussion during the IASI Planning Meeting.
During several working group sessions (see Appendix 1) the following
refined list of research areas of emphasis were determined. These areas
of emphasis are presented below along with an amplified discussion that
proceeds from the working group effort. The topics are in a rough order
of importance or priority at least for the first three or four items.

Research Priorities:

\(1\) Interactions between the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and
the IAS.

> The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) is typically defined by the
> region with surface temperatures \> 28.5 ^o^C, usually measured
> climatologically for each month. This region extends from the tropical
> Atlantic westward into the IAS, covering much of the Caribbean Sea
> proper, and continues westward into the tropical Pacific basin. The
> area exhibits strong annual and interannual variations in size,
> intensity and \"centroid\" location, and the range of variability is
> of the same order as its mean extent.
>
> As befitting a phenomenon closely linked to air‑sea interaction
> processes, questions arise both as to how the WHWP behaves under the
> influence of atmospheric forcing, as well as how the WHWP itself may
> feed back upon the atmosphere. In the former, little is understood
> about the nature of observed WHWP variability. In particular, can its
> annual cycle be well‑approximated by one‑dimensional models, or is it
> important to take into account advective and eddy processes in the
> ocean? The latter question also bears upon the overall behavior of the
> WHWP. A simple one‑dimensional heat balance would favor the argument
> that the WHWP acts in synchronism over the whole region, whereas an
> increased importance of advective and eddy forcing would suggest that,
> for example, the eastern Pacific and IAS portions of the WHWP behave
> in distinctive ways.
>
> The WHWP has interesting implications for regional climate, both
> locally and over neighboring regions. For example, variations in WHWP
> area may influence summer rainfall in the U.S. Mississippi valley. The
> mechanism by which climate may be influenced is only poorly
> understood. This may occur directly through conditioning of the water
> vapor content and static stability over the IAS, or it may be a more
> in direct effect through changes in the atmospheric circulation
> patterns above the IAS or in changes in the strength and position of
> the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The variability of the ITCZ
> and its interactions with such factors as local topography are of
> course of importance in their own right.
>
> A more direct factor of importance is the influence of IAS
> atmosphere‑ocean circulations on tropical cyclogenesis.

\(2\) Dynamics and Behavior of the Mesoscale Eddy Field in the IAS.

> Eddy‑field dynamics appear to be of critical importance in the
> understanding of horizontal and vertical mass and momentum transport
> within the IAS. Investigating ring formations and translations within
> the IAS is thus important to obtain some understanding of ring‑induced
> physical‑biological coupling processes which occur at different
> spatial and temporal scales. A better understanding of eddy field
> dynamics would allow for realistic numerical model formulations,
> constraints and validation criteria. Basic questions that need to be
> addressed by a coherent meso‑scale eddy field dynamics research
> program are:
>
> What is the variability of the IAS eddy field at seasonal to
> inter‑annual time scales?
>
> What fractions of the eddy‑field variability are due to local forcing
> (for intrinsic instabilities of the Caribbean Current) and to remote
> forcing?
>
> If remotely forced, how is vorticity transported into the IAS from,
> for example, North Brazil Current retroflection eddies? Is vorticity
> from such eddies transported downstream through the Yucatan Channel to
> influence the formation of Loop Current eddies?
>
> Are there relationships between the timing of physical variabilities,
> such as eddy formation events, and fisheries parameters such as larval
> production?

\(3\) The relative roles of buoyancy‑ and wind‑forced‑currents in the
coastal zone.

> In broad terms the southern coastlines of the Caribbean Sea are
> characterized by regions of downwelling, whereas along the northern
> boundary upwelling occurs. Some regions, such as the coasts of
> Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia exhibit intense
> upwelling under dry season (northern hemisphere winter) easterly wind
> forcing. On the other hand, some areas along the southern coastal
> boundary also show intense rainfall during the wet season. This
> rainfall may be enough to drive locally intense buoyancy adjusted
> geostrophic currents, similar to those thought to exist along the
> Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Existing data suggest that these
> phenomena have a major impact on the hydrographic characteristics
> particularly in the southern IAS. However, the data are still too
> sparse to say anything definitive about the relative importance of
> these different energy sources. What is the primary physical process
> driving regional upwelling and downwelling, nutrient transport and
> coastal rings?

\(4\) Coastal Air‑Sea‑Land Interactions and the Hydrological Cycle

> The IASI seeks to improve our understanding of the coastal response to
> the combined buoyancy (fresh water) and wind forcing and coastal
> land‑air‑sea coupling. This will lead to an improved forecasting of
> local precipitation and runoff. It will also provide an improved
> understanding of the freshwater distribution along the coast that has
> an influence on coastal productivity.
>
> The precipitation and wind distribution along the western IAS
> coastline is largely linked to the coastal terrain. Thus the regional
> topography as the mountains meet the sea and its interaction with the
> larger scale circulation determine the climatology of local
> precipitation, run‑off and wind. The ITCZ, trades, cold surges,
> tropical waves, tropical cyclones and low‑level easterly jets can
> provide preconditioning of the atmosphere for local convection along
> the coast.
>
> Mixed layer depth and coastal currents can be controlled by fresh
> water run‑off and local precipitation as well as by wind forcing. The
> fresh water along the coast may limit entrainment mixing and cooling
> and drive alongshore buoyancy currents. The winds may drive vertical
> mixing and coastal upwelling or downwelling. Thus the fresh water
> distribution on the shelf is controlled by both wind and rain. The
> coastal atmospheric boundary layer does not follow the simple sea
> breeze model because of orographic features and the large‑scale
> influences. The transition of boundary‑layer structures from off‑ to
> on‑shore environments is critical to local distributions and
> variability of precipitation and winds.
>
> The detailed physics and dynamics of the coastal air‑sea‑land
> interactions and the hydrological cycle can be investigated through
> process studies and regional numerical modeling.

\(5\) Modulation of Small‑scale (coastal) Events by Large‑scale
Variability.

> Interannual and inter‑decadal variability, particularly the
> oscillations of the atmospheric circulation, may produce significant
> fluctuations at the same scale in the coastal dynamical processes
> (e.g., upwelling, downwelling, mesoscale circulation). Through this
> mechanism changes in the coastal environment could be occurring and
> producing significant, local socio‑economic impacts.
>
> How do the coastal processes vary inter‑annually and inter‑decadally
> and how are these oscillations connected to the inter‑annual and
> inter‑decadal climate variability? In order to analyze this issue,
> long‑term data sequences of ocean and atmospheric variables are
> needed. Also it is necessary to analyze the process using mesoscale
> models nested into global circulation models.

\(6\) Physical and Biological Effects of Extreme Forcing Events
(hurricanes, tropical storms, tsunamis, etc).

> Extreme events in the IAS include the intense winds of hurricanes,
> tropical storms that bring long‑lasting heavy rainfall, extreme
> draught, tsunamis and, for their atmospheric effects, even volcanoes
> and African dust. The air‑land‑sea interests of the IAS can also be
> advanced by establishing how extreme events affect the other processes
> in the IAS.
>
> Hurricanes not only damage human settlements, but also considerably
> alter marine environments. Corals to depths as great tens of meters
> can be broken and overlaid with debris. Sea grasses are commonly
> uprooted, while coasts are reshaped and mangroves are commonly
> casualties.
>
> In tropical storms in which heavy rainfall, rather than winds, are the
> primary concern both human settlements and marine ecosystems suffer.
> Marine damage results from siltation of reefs and of benthic
> vegetation with subsequent injuries to fisheries. Heavy fresh water
> input alters the stratification of near‑coast waters and riverine
> transport into the IAS also increases the concentration of terrestrial
> agents that may be related to the health of marine ecosystems.
>
> The energy imparted to the seafloor and to coasts by tsunamis alters
> shorelines and disrupts coastal and marine ecosystems. Droughts have
> numerous destructive effects on the marine sphere. For example,
> reduction of freshwater supply to wetlands, salt ponds and lagoons,
> upsets essential salinity balances. Drought weakens shoreline
> vegetation that plays a role maintaining coastal marine resources.
> Large amounts of particles into the air from volcanoes or African dust
> can affect regional and global climate (e.g., "El Chichon," Pinatubo),
> human epidemiology and reef and pelagic resources.

\(7\) Impacts of lateral basin ventilation by North Atlantic and
Tropical Through‑flow Processes.

> As part of the Western circulation regime in the North Atlantic, the
> IASI domain is laterally ventilated by inflows through the Eastern and
> Northern passages with an essentially bimodal effective source
> pattern. The northern ventilation branch is associated with the wind
> forced Subtropical Gyre circulation. It encompasses water masses which
> have been conditioned by thermocline ventilation in the notheast and
> east gyre segments, including the shallow salinity extremum known as
> the Subtropical Underwater.
>
> The tropical ventilation branch is associated with the global
> meridional overturning System, and as such subject to remote forcing
> impact generally associated with decadal and longer time scale climate
> variability. It carries surface and thermocline waters originating in
> the Southern Hemisphere, and carries imprints of modification by
> equatorial upwelling processes, and by riverine inputs from the South
> American continent.
>
> Together these ventilation circulations impose a strong westward
> advective bias on property propagation through the Caribbean. In
> addition, input of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water at a rate of
> between 0.1 and 0.2 Sv through the Anegada‑Jungfern passage system
> drives an abyssal upwelling process which tends to limit direct
> effects of shallow biogeochemical processes to depths less than 1500 m
> ‑ cumulative inputs inevitably leading to exports through the Gulf
> Stream system into the subtropical NA domain. In addition to these
> external lateral forcings, fresh water inputs along the southern
> boundary of the basin (dominated by the Magdalena River) provide a
> buoyancy forcing which is strong enough to influence the upper
> circulation in the SW basin region but given the large advective
> throughflow rate can exert only minimal impact on the overall basin
> salinity.

Related IASI Processes:

In addition to the above cited seven topics, the following processes
were also identified as important subjects for study:

1.  Meridional property zonation in the Caribbean.

> The upper thermocline water mass characteristics, including those
> impacted by biogeochemichal processes, reflect a quasi‑laminar zonal
> advection pattern which is strongly modified by shallow(?) eddy
> activity. Seasonal modulation arises from the annual cycles of the
> relative source balances between the major ventilation paths and in
> the major riverine inputs (Orinoco, Magdalena, and indirectly Amazon)
> and in fluctuations in atmospheric forcing (including poorly
> understood tropical wave and storm impacts).

1.  Transport paths for coastally derived biota and contaminants.

> On long time scales it may be expected that modulation of the balance
> between Atlantic recirculation and global overturning should modify
> the biogeochemical impacts originating in the western tropical
> boundary region, with acceleration in the MOC leading to enhanced
> dominance of the southern ventilation branch.
>
> Seasonal variations in the eddy activity may significantly modify
> dispersal patterns, e.g. in the influence of Orinoco discharge waters
> in the NE Caribbean.

1.  Indirect effects on the coastal upwelling processes.

> These effects should arise if major through‑flow modulation is
> induced; an enhanced throughflow rate may enhance these effects by its
> impact on the meridional thermocline slope in the basin.

Regional Observations:

In the spirit of attempting to link the \"phenomenological\" thematic
areas (basically, themes 1 through 3) to the operational slant of Theme
4 (an IAS‑GOOS) the participants in this thematic group

attempted to identify the suite of observations required to conduct
definitive process studies that could be associated with a regional
GOOS. During these discussions a strong effort was also directed

toward establishing the linkages between areas of scientific research
interest and those of major societal relevance for each of the above
topics. Certain observational efforts (e.g. surface drifter launches in
the Caribbean, passage transports) are already underway and should be
supported and expanded.

Beyond this, the various important research areas can be identified with
collections of required observations. For example, in the case of the
Western Hemisphere Warm Pool, determining over the whole area the the
heat content and variability of the surface mixed layer (mixed‑layer
depth, SST) is central. From a research standpoint this is important to
studies of, for example, water vapor inputs to the atmosphere over the
IAS. However, this information also has immediate importance as input to
forecast models for the path and intensity of potentially landfalling
dangerous hurricanes such as Mitch, which caused major damage in Central
America last fall. Such observations would be available from, for
example, a mixture of satellite (SST) and VOS XBT (mixed‑layer
thickness) observations, both of which would be components of a regional
GOOS.

However, if we accept the fact that in the tropics the freshwater cycle
has comparable importance, then it is obvious that upper‑layer salinity
measurements acquire increased importance. An improvement in mixed layer
input to models would result from observations of salinity profiles
(such as from VOS XCTD or autonomous profilers) together with surface
runoff/precipitation from satellites and in‑situ runoff data (already
being collected).

It was agreed by all that good surface heat, momentum and \"salt\" flux
measurements are essential in the IAS. A combination of more traditional
bulk flux estimates calibrated by one or more highly sophisticated
surface flux moorings may be the best way to attain this goal, since
this would allow the development of (for example) calibration of
satellite‑derived data to directly observed flux

measurements.

Direct comparisons/verification of models will require good surface and
subsurface velocity data; the technology for obtaining such data is now
available through either surface drifters or subsurface (PALACE) floats.

Other satellite data are particularly suited to process studies in this
region. As examples we may cite SeaWiFS in the study of coastal
upwelling, and TRMM in the study of precipitation‑driven circulations.

A better understanding of ocean‑eddy variability in IAS transports
together with the appropriate biological observations would allow (given
a suitable model) predictions of biological (or pollution) effects
downstream due to upstream spills or modifications to estuarine breeding
locations.

Similar statements can be made concerning the other phenomena referred
to in this theme. In each case, a suite of GOOS‑related measurements can
be derived that not only support research objectives but also can serve
as direct input to support operational forecasts/predictions, although
the operational forecast models may as yet be fairly crude.

In the case of \"extreme\" events (e.g. tsunamis, hurricanes),
measurements and monitoring indicators recommended are as follows: 1) to
establish the physical impacts of hurricanes, their winds and internal
pressures must be measured (dropsondes, hurricane‑hardened
meteorological stations throughout the IAS. 2) to analyze historical and
contemporary precipitation data with correlations to global phenomenon
e.g. ENSO and NA oscillations. 3) to upgrade and/or install

new tide gauges and sea floor pressure sensors for detecting and
describing tsunamis. 4) to measure the occlusion of the atmosphere due
to suspended particles continuously for quantifying the atmospheric
effects of volcanic and African dust.

A.  **Working Group II.**

> **Theme: Larval recruitment pathways, adult productivity, bio‑physical
> linkages and their influences on the Intra‑Americas Sea fisheries.**

Participants: R. Cowen (Co‑Chair), J. Alio (Co‑Chair), T. Lee
(Rapporteur), M. Almeda, J. Batista, M. Bernstein, M. Criales, S.
Dorsey, N. Ehrhardt, J. Garcia, G. Hitchcock, K. Lindeman, J. Mendoza,
M. Moreno, D. Olson, P. Ortner, C. Paris, S. Sponaugle

Larval recruitment pathways and biological/physical linkages and their
influences on IAS fisheries

Fishery resources in the Intra‑America Seas (IAS) are diverse and
strikingly different. Many distinct, sub‑regional ecosystems in the IAS
may harbor unique stocks from a recruitment dynamics standpoint. Yet our
ability to explain variability in recruitment of these stocks is
limited. This limitation stems from an incomplete understanding of the
coupling between biological and physical oceanographic processes
associated with these stocks. The population dynamic characteristics
that different speciesexhibit reflect both reproductive strategies
evolved to maximize larval survival within a specific environment and
juvenile recruitment success resulting from a dynamic physical
environment. Further, the scale of these processes is not clear.
Identification of stock boundaries, and the potential for linkage among
populations is equivocal. For example, while some populations may be at
the end of the larval pathway, others may beself‑sustaining and/or net
exporters.

Within the broader framework of maintaining fisheries resources,
effective management requires sound biological and physical information
on target species and the relevant environmental setting. Scientific
inquiry into the processes regulating important fishery species is
therefore of paramount importance to the role of managers in assessing
management options. To this end, we established the following goal to
identify major issues leading to the successful management of IAS
fishery resources.

Goal: Establish the knowledge base of biological and physical linkages
necessary to develop predictive models to forecast recruitment of
important IAS fishery resource species.

IAS Setting:

Characterization of IAS fishery resources must build from its unique
physical setting that promotes a high diversity of organisms and
habitats coupled with high human population densities that often
significantly stress local marine resources. The IAS physical
environment is interlaced with considerable mesoscale variability,
superimposed on large‑scale continuous flow, leading to exchange across
several spatial and temporal scales. Coastal habitats are also spatially
diverse, often interrupted, in the case of islands, by large stretches
of open water. Pathways, or the lack thereof, between such coastal
environments may lead to varying degrees of connectivity among local
populations. Further, the physical environment may infuse certain
habitats with nutrients from local sources and/or more remote sources.
Both continental land margins and relatively steep island topographies
interact with these different physical forcings. The result is a highly
diverse patchwork of habitats and species throughout the IAS.

Superimposed on this natural environmental diversity are many impacts
caused by high concentrations of human beings. The IAS human population
is largely concentrated along coastal margins due to the
physical‑geographical setting. Thus, not only are humans intricately
connected to the natural resources of the marine environment, they are
also imposing large impacts on it. These impacts stem from both direct
(e.g., fishing, development, dredging) and indirect (e.g., agricultural
run‑off, logging, sewage) uses.

IAS Characterization Statements:

A.  The IAS has real physical boundaries and strong current systems
    providing a potential for a high degree of biological and physical
    connectivity.

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1.  A high diversity of living marine resources exists, in part tied to
    the diversity of habitats within the IAS.

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1.  IAS is characterized by high human densities with a strong reliance
    on its marine resources. As a result, living marine resources of the
    IAS are generally highly stressed.

Fundamental Questions:

Understanding oceanographic variability, life histories & behavior are
key to developing forecasting abilities. As a working group, we
identified a variety of research questions that can be applied
separately or in combination to make significant progress towards
achieving our long‑term goal. Alone, some of these questions represent
incremental steps in this effort, but they have the advantage of being
tied to neither specific species nor systems. In other words, these
questions are applicable to any target species and/or system. Answers to
these questions will provide fundamental understanding of the processes
controlling the population dynamics of target species, and be broadly
relevant to other, non‑targeted study species. These research questions
can serve as starting points for identifying the current state of
knowledge for targeted species as well as outlining research directions
that are likely to be most productive.

\(1\) Identify where in the life history of target species research
efforts hould be concentrated.

• Where do population bottlenecks occur?

• What are the life history stage‑specific sources of variability?

• What physical and biological processes are operating to create that
variability?

\(2\) Define the population boundaries of the target species (scale).

• To what extent are local populations connected?

• What are the physical and biological processes linking or separating
local populations?

• What is the influence and importance of inter‑regional dispersal of
coral reef fishes in terms of marine reserve design? (source‑sink)

• What are the spatial and temporal characteristics of the physical
environment required for maintaining sustainable fishery resources in
the IAS?

\(3\) Identify the biological strategies underlying recruitment dynamics
of IAS target species.

• Are larval pathways and linkages related to reproductive strategies?

• How do feeding strategies couple to reproductive strategies in the
physical environment?

• How does exploitation affect the biological balance between these two
strategies?

• What are the key environmental processes that frame reproductive
strategies of target species (e.g., are short‑term environmental
variations or long term averages more important in defining reproductive
strategies)?

\(4\) What are the primary differences and similarities in the
biological and physical dynamics of sub‑regional ecosystems?

• How do dispersal mechanisms/outcomes vary among regions?

• How do regions differ in terms of mesoscale processes affecting
populations?

• Are key species exposed to noticeably different physical
characteristics of the environment governing retention mechanisms and
linkages?

\(5\) Identify how population distributions are determined by habitat
availability or quality.

• What environmental cues and habitats are critical to recruitment?

• What habitat variables best predict settler distributions across
insular and continental shelves?

• What habitat variables best predict juvenile distributions across
insular and continental shelves?

• What habitat variables best predict adult distributions across insular
and continental shelves?

IAS Initiative Issues:

The working group also identified a suite of topics that have particular
relevance to the IAS. These topics focus on issues identified by the
working group as either unique to the IAS region or as particularly
important to the region due to either economic importance or for
potential population impact. In light of our theme\'s topic, these
issues all relate to recruitment dynamics and other bio‑physical
oceanographic linkages, ranging from fundamental issues such as the role
of larval dispersal in connecting local populations to ecosystem
understanding of fishery resources tied to tropical upwelling systems.
Each issue is discussed briefly to introduce the problem and suggest
research approaches required to address each problem.

\(1\) How connected (via larval dispersal) are localized populations of
fishery and ecologically important species? *(R.K. Cowen)*

• Coral reef fishes including snapper/groupers

• Design of marine reserves

• Lobster populations

\(2\) What is the relationship between low productivity of the open
ocean and high fishery resources on the shelf and in estuaries? *(Maria
Criales)*

• Shrimp (both shelf and deep water)

• Deepwater crabs

\(3\) What is the role of tropical upwelling systems in sustaining
localized pelagic species?

(*Jose Alio)*

• Small pelagics

• Large pelagics

\(4\) What are potential effects of global climate change on the
fisheries resources of the IAS?

*(Jeremy Mendoza)*

• All stocks

\(5\) What is the role of large riverine plumes in sustaining localized
populations and to larval dynamics of non‑pelagic species? *(Rene
Garcia)*

• Large pelagics

• Reef fish larvae

\(6\) Are adult spawning strategies linked to unique IAS dispersal and
retention mechanisms?

*(Nelson Ehrhardt)*

• Lobster

• Grouper/snapper

*(Participant responsible for drafting background to specific issue)*

\(1\) How connected (via larval dispersal) are localized populations of
fishery and ecologically important species? *(R. K. Cowen)*

> Most marine species have life histories that include at least one
> potentially widely dispersive stage. For most benthic species, this
> dispersive stage is the larval stage wherein the larvae may be
> subjected to transport by ocean currents. Given the spatial and
> temporal scales over which currents may transit, the implications have
> been that larval dispersal may be extensive. Certainly genetic studies
> have suggested that populations of marine species are homogeneous over
> large spatial scales, supporting the contention that larvae are
> transported regularly between local and even distant populations.
>
> Knowledge of the extent of exchange is of fundamental importance to
> the study of population dynamics and the design of marine reserves.
> Decisions predicated on the assumption that larvae are widely
> dispersed may lead to erroneous actions if the assumption is wrong.
> However, lack of evidence to the contrary has generally resulted in
> the acceptance of the concept of well‑mixed populations. This in turn
> has been interpreted to infer that current trajectories (usually mean
> trajectories) and larval duration may predict exchange between
> populations.
>
> There is strong evidence, however, that larvae are not necessarily
> passive particles. Vertical migration behaviors by larvae may couple
> with vertically stratified flows to retain larvae near shore. Further,
> some studies have indicated mesoscale circulations that may minimize
> long‑distance dispersal by retaining larvae for a portion of or
> throughout their pelagic stage. These findings suggest that there is a
> strong need to evaluate the question of how much larval exchange
> exists between various local populations, and what processes affect
> such exchange. Connectivity between populations has such strong
> implications for the management of fishery resources and the design of
> marine reserves that it represents perhaps the most important
> ecological question facing managers today.
>
> The question of connectivity is perhaps nowhere more important than
> within the IAS due to its unique physio‑geographic setting, high
> species diversity and human reliance on its marine resources. In the
> IAS, the question of whether populations of fishery resources are
> regularly transported among islands or along long stretches of
> coastline is potentially an international issue. The actions of one
> small country\'s fisheries may well impact the resources of another.
> Clearly the scope for and mechanism of exchange vs. retention needs to
> be examined for such important species as coral reef fishes including
> groupers and snappers, lobsters, and shrimp. Further, this information
> is critical in the proper design of marine reserves.
>
> Research to address this issue will require both empirical,
> interdisciplinary field studies and high resolution numerical
> modeling. The field studies will need to be designed at several
> temporal and spatial scales (100\'s and 1000\'s km, month‑months), and
> will involve lagrangian and eulerian measurements of the vertically
> structured flow coupled with detailed studies on larval distribution
> and behavior in response to the observed flow conditions. Numerical
> models will need to incorporate these field data into realistic flow
> and larval behavior models coupled with population dynamics of the
> study organisms.

\(2\) What is the relationship between low productivity of the open
ocean & high fishery resources on the shelf and in estuaries? *(Maria M.
Criales)*

> Penaeid shrimps are a very important component of the estuarine and
> open‑shelf ecosystems in the IAS regions. Nursery areas for juveniles
> are in coastal zones influenced by deltas, estuaries or lagoons rich
> in organic matter. Adults live aggregated in the oceanic waters of the
> continental slopes. Penaeid shrimps are thus excellent transferors of
> biomass from rich coastal zones to the relatively poor oceanic waters.
> Eight species of penaeid shrimps are generally exploited in the IAS by
> the industrial and artisanal fisheries, constituting by far the most
> valuable segment of the fishing industry of the IAS region in terms of
> dollars. The most important shrimp fishing grounds are in the Gulf of
> Mexico (including the USA and Mexico), off of Cuba, Nicaragua and
> Honduras, the Gulf of Paira (including east Venezuela, Trinidad and
> Tobago), the Guyana‑Brazil shelf (including Brazil, French Guyana,
> Suriname and Guyana) and the Colombian coast east of the mouth of the
> Magdalena River.
>
> The life cycles of penaeid shrimps involve complex migrations between
> spawning grounds and nursery areas. As a result of the migration
> between different habitats, penaeid shrimps have evolved a suite of
> behaviors to cope with a large number of physical processes and
> stimuli. Penaeid larvae may be subjected to transport by ocean
> currents, which may disperse larvae to nursery grounds different from
> those of the parental stock. Larvae may be retained in the area where
> they were spawned by a combined effect of hydrographic and
> meteorological factors (e.g., eddies, internal waves, fronts). In this
> case, larvae may recruit the same nursery ground as the parental
> population. The mechanism of exchange vs. retention needs to be
> examined for the important commercial penaeid species of the IAS. Data
> on larval supply and transport are extremely limited or nonexistent.
>
> Juveniles migrating from the estuary to the fishing grounds are
> exposed to the interaction of a series of environmental factors (e.g.,
> temperature, tides, winds, rainfall) varying with the local geography.
> Thus, environmental factors are fundamental to understand recruitment
> strategies and linkages among different shrimp populations and to the
> development of numerical models. Unfortunately most data available on
> shrimp catches are from the fishing industry, and lack environmental
> data.
>
> Most of the IAS countries are constrained by minimal budgets for
> research and a lack of economic support from the private fishing
> industry. Because of the ecological and economical importance of the
> penaeid shrimp resources in the IAS countries research priority should
> be focused on the collection of reliable biological and environmental
> data on the larval and juvenile transport mechanisms of penaeid
> shrimps. Bridging this information gap between larval supply and adult
> year class strength is crucial to the modeling and management of
> fisheries population dynamics.
>
> An almost unexploited fishery in the IAS is the deep‑water
> crustaceans. The eastern Gulf of Mexico exhibits a small but important
> commercial fishery of geryonid crabs, golden and red crabs, and
> several deep‑water penaeid and solenocerid shrimp species. Even though
> these species are widely distributed in the rest of the Caribbean
> there is not an established fishery in other regions. Information is
> needed on the economic viability of establishing a fishing industry
> for these species and on the knowledge of the life history of these
> species.

\(3\) What is the role of tropical upwelling systems in sustaining
localized pelagic species?

(*Jose J. Alio)*

> A variety of pelagic fishes (small species like sardines and flying
> fish, and large species like tuna, swordfish, billfish and sharks)
> represent some of the most valuable fishery resources within the Intra
> Americas Sea (IAS) region. The importance of the small pelagic fish
> resides more in their biomass than in their cash value, whereas both
> biomass and price are important characteristics common to many of the
> large pelagic fish species. Even though their pelagic nature results
> in widespread distributions within the IAS region and elsewhere, these
> resources concentrate rather notoriously in certain areas, either on a
> permanent or seasonal basis. For example, there is a permanent
> aggregation of sardines in the SE Caribbean Sea with a biomass that
> can reach enormous proportions (in the order of 105 t). The location
> of the areas where small pelagic fish concentrate seems to be less
> variable than that of large pelagic species and it can be associated
> to upwelling zones. Large pelagic species show less dense aggregations
> in the open ocean, that move geographically as individual\'s migrate
> seasonally from the feeding to the reproductive areas during the year.
> In this respect, they benefit from upwelling areas in a more seasonal
> manner or do it mainly during some phases of their life history.
> Considering the common scarcity of nutrients and low productivity of
> open ocean waters, particularly in the tropics, the very fact that
> highly mobile fish species concentrate in certain regions leads to
> questions on the nature of the inducing factors. The distribution of
> small pelagic species is more restricted to coastal zones (continental
> or insular) and are thus affected by land‑related phenomena like river
> outflows, runoff and upwelling. These physical processes can
> significantly alter the coastal environment and enhance local primary
> productivity in restricted areas of the coast that could explain the
> sustainability of the local fish biomass. Variation in runoff and
> river discharges has been associated with the abundance of some
> fishery resources (shrimps, for example) within the IAS region.
> However, the assessment of the effect of these factors versus
> upwelling would most probably reveal that the latter emerges as the
> leading factor explaining how massive amounts of small pelagic fish
> can be sustained in restricted portions of the coast.
>
> Upwelling is affected by wind speed and direction and by the
> topography and bathymetry of the coastal zone. The study and modeling
> of the functional relationship between these physical elements and the
> occurrence of upwelling is fundamental if predictions on distribution
> and abundance of small pelagic resources are to be made. Some of the
> environmental variation involved in the upwelling process is cyclic in
> nature (with seasonal or multi‑year periods), and some of it is
> stochastic. As a consequence, their study requires long‑term
> monitoring of the main physical parameters involved and such programs
> only exist in a small number of locations. In this respect, sharing of
> information among countries in the IAS region is a must if progress in
> evaluating the importance of upwelling to small pelagic fish
> production is to be achieved.
>
> Large pelagic species are very sensitive to phenomena that induce
> changes in the abundance of food in the water offshore. They would
> benefit from coastal upwelling zones by feeding on small prey species
> when they get close to shore, which happens on a cyclical manner
> during their migrations. Availability of coastal upwelling zones is
> particularly important during the juvenile phase of the large pelagic
> species. The role of coastal upwelling in sustaining highly migratory
> species reveals that the impact of a limited occurrence of upwelling
> zones in a region may extend over its entire geography. The study of
> the interaction between upwelling and large pelagic species requires
> improved information on their spatial distribution and abundance, in
> particular, the role of the upwelling zones during the migratory
> processes.

\(4\) What are potential effects of global climate change on the
fisheries resources of the IAS?

*(Jeremy Mendoza)*

> Concern for global climate change and its impact upon fisheries
> resources is particularly relevant within the IAS region. As stated
> earlier, an important fraction of human populations in the IAS region
> is concentrated in near shore areas and is highly dependent directly
> and indirectly on fisheries resources, especially in the case of small
> island countries.
>
> Assessing possible effects of global climate change on fisheries
> resources remains at this time highly speculative due, among other
> factors, to our limited knowledge on physical and biological linkages
> in marine populations. Atmospheric and oceanic warming, sea level
> rise, changes in precipitation regimes, wind forcing and oceanic and
> coastal currents are all expected to occur within this framework. Such
> varied and large scale changes will affect marine population abundance
> and distribution, as well as community structure in diverse ecosystems
> through effects on nutrient and sediment input, habitat availability,
> physiological stress, reproductive strategies, larval mortality and
> dispersal, community trophodynamics, etc.
>
> At this stage, options for studying and forecasting impacts of global
> climate change on fishery resources are limited. However, the analysis
> of past events and a comparative approach are considered as primary
> tools for obtaining basic information, which may eventually lead to
> regional scale models.
>
> Most fishery and environmental databases in the IAS region are too
> short to assess impact of climate change on these resources. However,
> for certain fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea data on
> resource abundance and recruitment estimates cover several decades,
> which may be analyzed in conjunction with atmospheric and
> oceanographic data bases such as COADS, in order to study \"short
> term\" variability within the present century.
>
> Long term changes in fish population abundance may be assessed by fish
> scale counts from cores taken from anoxic basins, such as the Cariaco
> Trench in the southern Caribbean. The observed series can be compared
> with known long‑term climatic variability over several centuries. This
> approach also presents the advantage of excluding the confounding
> effect of exploitation on population abundance variability.
>
> The comparison of structure and function of similar ecosystems is
> another approach to assess possible impacts of global change.
> Latitudinal and zonal gradients in atmospheric and oceanographic
> variables affect similar systems within the IAS region. A wise
> selection of several sets of these systems, including main categories
> present in the IAS region, may allow to infer effects of climate
> variability on population abundance, community structure and function,
> as well as possible impacts on fisheries and food security.

\(5\) What is the role of large riverine plumes in sustaining localized
populations and to larval dynamics of non‑pelagic species? *(Jorge R.
Garcia)*

> Large riverine plumes are mesoscale features of critical importance to
> both pelagic and benthic communities throughout the Caribbean basin.
> Nutrient loading from the Orinoco River plume, for example, drives a
> marked productivity gradient which moves as a front from the north
> coast of South America all the way to the northern Caribbean. Within
> the context of permanent stratification and oligotrophic conditions
> off the south coast of Puerto Rico, such nutrient inputs account for
> pulsed increments, or \"short‑term seasonality\" of higher oceanic
> zooplankton biomass. Whereas the chemical (high silicates, low
> salinity) and biological (higher surface chlorophyll) signatures of
> this front have been identified by discrete samplings and satellite
> images, the regional ecological implications of this process remain
> virtually unexplored. Of particular interest is the role of this front
> in regulation of fishery stocks in the Caribbean and the resulting
> larval supply to adjacent systems, such as the Florida and Gulf Stream
> Currents.
>
> In terms of coral reef fish and invertebrate larvae, it could be
> postulated that the higher planktonic productivity associated with the
> Orinoco River plume could favor higher survival rates for certain reef
> taxa and therefore selectivity towards reproductive synchronization
> with the front. A mayor constraint for answering this question is the
> lack of seasonal‑temporal variability data regarding distributions and
> abundance of reef larval taxa, thus the need to assess temporal
> variability patterns in the distribution of coral fish and
> invertebrate larvae.
>
> Large pelagic fish populations (Istiophoridae, Coryphaenidae,
> Scombridae) constitute fishery resources of high recreational and
> commercial importance in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the east
> coast of the U.S. Since most of the flow from the Caribbean current
> exits through the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, the
> Caribbean region may be acting as an important supplier of large
> pelagic fish larvae to these neighboring systems. Interestingly,
> higher abundance of adult billfishes (Istiophoridae) and dolphin fish
> (Coryphaenidae) are found in the northern Caribbean during the period
> when the Orinoco River front is at minimal intensity. It is during the
> relaxation of the Orinoco front that water masses from the Sargasso
> Sea penetrate northern Caribbean waters through island passages. It is
> well established that large pelagic fishes are associated with
> \"Sargassum currents\" due to the presence of their main prey item,
> the flying fishes (Exocoetidae). Flying fishes attach their demersal
> eggs to Sargassum bundles initiating a food chain that goes from
> Sargassum ‑ flying fish eggs to large billfishes. Although this
> phenomena is well recognized, its implications for inter‑regional
> larval transport and recruitment dynamics of large pelagic fishes is
> not well understood and represents a subject of primordial research
> importance.
>
> River plumes serve as mechanisms for ocean transport of freshwater
> larval shrimps (e.g., Palemonidae, Atyidae) and fishes (e.g.,
> Gobiidae, Eleotridae) that constitute keystone populations in riverine
> systems as juvenile and adults, but whose larval development occurs at
> sea or in brackish water (amphidromous). The potential of these taxa
> to remain within their own river plume replenishing parental
> populations (self‑seeding) and/or recruit to neighboring rivers has
> not been clearly established and is relevant information when
> manipulations with river flows and man‑made reservoirs are being
> considered. Large river plumes have significant influence on the
> distribution and productivity of estuarine populations, including
> stocks of fish and shrimp of commercial importance. Advective
> transport and the sedimentation of organic matter from river plumes
> influence both benthic and pelagic resident estuarine populations,
> which in turn interact with the marine environment by dispersal of
> larval stages.

\(6\) Are adult spawning strategies linked to unique IAS egg and larval
dispersal and retention mechanisms? *(N. M. Ehrhardt)*

> It is recognized that in the IAS, many similar commercially important
> species exhibit notoriously different population dynamic
> characteristics (e.g., natural mortality, abundance, recruitment
> success, and growth). It is also noted that a large number of species
> (e.g., groupers, snappers, spiny lobsters, billfishes, penaeid
> shrimps, sciaenids, etc.) perform significant seasonal migrations
> related to feeding and spawning most likely as a consequence of
> long‑term species adaptations in biologically constrained ecosystems.
> The functional nature of these migrations is not well understood.
> However, they must be the result of complex biological processes
> related to the spatio‑temporal availability of food required at
> different life stages and the need to cope with existing seasonal
> physical mechanisms that control egg and larval dispersal and
> retention in specific regions. Migrations, then, may play the
> functional role of dynamically integrating bio‑energetic resources to
> the population recruitment process that ultimately leads to future
> spawning in constrained local environments in the IAS. On the other
> hand, feeding and spawning strategies must be coupled to a variety of
> biological mechanisms adopted by species populations to limit or
> control natural mortality in the localized environment. In
> conjunction, these biological strategies have resulted in the
> long‑range sustainability of fish populations in the IAS.
>
> Furthermore, it is argued that removal of fish resources by
> exploitation may significantly impact the natural population balance
> in the regional ecosystems as selective removal of individual fish by
> the fisheries alters the naturally adapted reproductive and
> predator‑prey relationships. Selective removals may be responsible
> therefore for the significant community shifts already observed in
> these ecosystems. Consequently, successful fishery management programs
> for the IAS require a solid understanding of the reproductive dynamic
> strategies emerging from species adaptations to ecosystems (the Where,
> When, How and Why) and their role in the dynamics of recruitment
> success (the Net Result of Why).
>
> In the above context, research on the reproductive population dynamics
> of commercially important organisms in the IAS should be oriented to
> the coupling of the temporal‑spatial physical retention mechanisms
> that can potentially affect the dispersal of egg and larvae during and
> immediately after spawning, with the intensity of spawning. Intensity
> of spawning should be related to individual as well as population
> fecundity in response to exogenous stimulus. Research on the resulting
> recruitment to the fisheries should be oriented to the coupling of
> exponential risks (i.e., mortality sources), from the time of larval
> settling until recruitment, with bio‑energetic pathways.
>
> Thus, relevant scientific questions framed within the concepts of
> ecosystem definitions and the relevance of the oceanographic and
> hydrographic patterns impacting reproductive processes that govern the
> adaptive population dynamics of key species/resources in the IAS
> should be:

1\. Are reproductive strategies of the key species modulated by the
dynamics of the physical environment? If so, to what extent?

2\. Are reproductive strategies linked to the enhancement of survival
strategies of the progeny?

3\. Is environmental variability a key factor at defining reproductive
strategies?

4\. Which are the environmental processes that impact reproductive
strategies of key species the most?

5\. To what extent does exploitation impact the reproductive ability of
the species to adapt to the new exploited environment?

6\. How do larval and juvenile feeding strategies couple to reproductive
strategies in the physical environment? And, how does exploitation
interfere with the biological balance between these two strategies?

7\. What are the spatial and temporal requirements in the physical
environment to successfully evolve as a meaningful sustainable fishery
resource?

8\. Are there differences and similarities in the biological dynamics
among sub‑regional ecosystems?

9\. Is each of the selected stocks exposed to noticeable different
physics governing recruitment retention mechanisms? If so, what are the
consequences to the biological strategies adopted by the species?

Physical and Biological Environmental Monitoring Needs:

The above research approaches and issues will require both detailed,
question‑specific sampling designs and regular environmental monitoring.
While it is not the purpose of this working group to design specific
research projects, it is necessary to identify relevant environmental
data needs that may best be acquired through organized monitoring
programs. Below is a general guideline for environmental data needs with
relevant temporal and spatial scales of resolution. We realize that not
all types of data may be available synoptically, but recognition of
valuable data types, coupled with reviews of important studies and/or
regions can help focus where resources are best invested until more
comprehensive monitoring programs are in place.

Table 1. Environmental data requirements for programs monitoring
processes controlling population abundance of important fishery species.
For each parameter, the relevant spatial and temporal scale of
measurement resolution is also presented. In some cases different scales
are recommended for oceanic (O) and coastal (C) habitats where coastal
is defined as within 100 km of shore. Vertical (V) resolution is
indicated for T, S, and currents.

> Parameter Spatial Scale Temporal Scale
>
> Tides Coastal/Island Hourly
>
> Evaporation 10 km Day
>
> Precipitation 10 km Day
>
> River Discharge Coastal Day
>
> Wind field O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ daily / C ‑ hourly
>
> Upwelling index O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ daily / C ‑ hourly

Mixed layer depth O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ 3 D / C ‑ hourly

> SST O ‑ 1km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ 1 D / C ‑ hourly
>
> Temperature -Depth O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ 3 D / C ‑ hourly

V: O ‑10 m / C ‑ 0.1Z

> SS Salinity O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km O ‑ 1 D / C ‑ hourly

Salinity by Depth O ‑ 6km / C ‑ 1 km

> V: O ‑10 m / C ‑ 0.1Z O ‑ 3 D / C ‑ hourly
>
> Currents O ‑ 6km/C‑ 1 km O‑daily/C ‑ hourly
>
> V: O‑10 m/C‑0.1Z O ‑ daily/C ‑ hourly
>
> Turbulence not defined not defined
>
> Chl a (Ocean color) O ‑ 6km/C‑ 1 km O ‑ 3 D/ C ‑ hourly
>
> Nutrients O ‑ 6km/C‑ 1 km O ‑ 3 D/ C ‑ hourly
>
> Turbidity not defined not defined

In the absence of a complete, high‑resolution monitoring program
throughout the Caribbean, it is apparent that researchers will have to
rely on alternate information sources. One potent approach is numerical
modeling. Models have the potential to fill the gaps in a spatially
and/or temporally patchy sampling regime and may provide finer
resolution than possible with monitoring alone. A further advantage of
such models is their utility in hypothesis testing the role of specific
processes. Another method to obtain monitoring information, though not
necessarily synoptically, is to utilize ships of opportunity. A variety
of commercial vessel regularly transit portions of the Caribbean. When
in place, a Ships of Opportunity Program (SoOP) can result in detailed
time series of such

data as SST, SSS, currents (w/ ADCP). Depending on the instruments
available, and vessels, this program can be expanded to sampling
portions of the Caribbean that are not regularly sampled by other
monitoring programs.

Table 2. Additional sources of environmental data useful to
understanding processes controlling population abundance of important
fishery species.

> Parameter Spatial Scale Temporal Scale

Modeling‑

Vertical current Structure

Precipitation Prediction

Wind fields O ‑ 6km/C‑ 1 km O ‑ daily/ C ‑ hourly

Ships of Opportunity Program (VOS)‑

T Various repeated (e.g. biweekly) transects all variables)

S

Chl a

ADCP

Hydroacoustics (BackscatterADCP, Multi‑freq. echointegrators)

> Target Species Priority Ecosystems Priority Regions
>
> Lobster Estuaries Lesser Antilles

Shrimp Continental soft‑bottom shelf Columbia/Panama Gyre

> Shelf Coral reefs Venezuela coast
>
> Deep‑water\* Island environments Loop Current/FL Keys
>
> Conch upwelling systems Windward Islands

Deep‑water crabs\* Riverine plumes

Squid\* Eddy systems

Grouper/snapper

Coral reef fishes

Small pelagics

Large pelagics

Dolphin (Dorado)

Billfish

Tuna

\*Largely unexploited

**C. Working Group III.**

**Theme: Multiple levels of interconnection in IAS coastal zones.**

Participants: Jerald S. Ault (Co‑Chair), Robert N. Ginsburg (Co‑Chair),
K. Lindeman (Rapporteur), G. Batista, D. Benetti, B. Best, J. Bohnsack,
L. Brand, G. Eberli, E. Escobar, C. Lewsey, D. Lirman, H. Groschel, P.
Kramer, T. McClanahan, C. Rivero, J. Serafy, K. Sullivan, D. Suman, J.
Wang, A.

Wagh, J. Woodley.

Introduction:

Coastal zones in the tropical Intra‑Americas Sea (IAS) are complex and
dynamic environments constantly being formed and reformed by the
irresistible forces of the sea and humans. The coastal zone is the nexus
for fluid interconnections of sensitive land‑sea ecosystems and
essential habitats that support prolific living and nonliving resources
of great socioeconomic value. Concomitantly, IAS coastal zones are
considered \"ecosystems‑at‑risk\" due to explosive growth of human
populations, municipal and industrial expansions, and substantial
economic development which have disrupted the functioning of natural
systems and contributed to problems of overfishing, pollution and
environmental degradation. A crisis has been precipitated by chronic
overfishing of nearly every commercial fishery from widespread fleet
expansions, combined with quantum leaps in fishing technologies and
little understanding of fish population dynamics, habitats, and
physical‑biological interactions. Excessive land use has led to high
levels of raw sewage, pesticides, heavy metals and municipal garbage.
Tourism, now placed at 100 million visitors a year, is inextricably
linked to both the socioeconomic and environmental future of the
Caribbean. In the name of \'development\' in the U.S. and throughout the
Caribbean, critical coastal resources ‑ such as wetlands, mangroves,
seagrasses, and coral reefs ‑ are being plundered. Mangrove forests, one
of the most productive and biologically diverse wetlands on earth, are
giving way to squatter settlements and shanty‑towns, or are cut down for
timber or to make room for tourist resorts, and in the island states of
the Caribbean they have declined by about 70 percent. Seagrasses provide
nurseries, shelter, and food for a host of marine life, including
commercially important fish and shellfish, and interact with mangroves
and coral reefs to reduce wave energy and regulate water flow, but these
are also under increasing threat from coastal development,
deforestation, and pollution. Mining sand for beach renourishment,
corals, and minerals, coupled with dredge‑and‑fill operations in ship
channels and harbors, has smothered millions of hectares of seagrass
beds. These and other ills of the coastal zone are having far‑reaching
consequences and are the objects of numerous programs of research,
management and policy development in the region.

Valuable as these efforts are, they have tended to focus on specific
problems or topics. Viewed from afar, coastal zones are like integrated
networks or a series of nested boxes in which each box has many internal
connections, and in turn, externally is wired to both its larger and
smaller neighbors. On the large‑scale, the habitats and resources of the
IAS become inextricably interconnected as the coastal zone is linked
with the hinterland and the open ocean as a water particle flows from
land to coastline to open ocean. The amount and timing of runoff from
land areas and the exchanges with the ocean dictate hydrography that in
turn determines habitat conditions, populations of marine organisms and
resources. Within each coastal zone, the major habitats ‑ seagrass beds,
coral reefs and mangrove forests ‑ are inter‑dependent in numerous ways.
Coral reef barriers can create protected lagoons where sea grasses and
mangroves thrive. These same seagrass beds and mangrove forests provide
nursery areas and rich foraging grounds for reef fish, lobsters, shrimp
and many other precious and valuable organisms. Within each habitat
organisms and physical processes interact in numerous ways. Seagrasses
and mangroves baffle waves and currents to accelerate sediment
accumulation; coral reefs recycle nutrients; and, reef fish use a suite
of these habitats as they grow inshore from recruits to mature adults on
offshore coral reefs. Humans, through commerce and recreation, modulate
these systems affecting the source and amount of inputs, and regulating
the quality and quantity of output. Understanding these various levels
of inter­connections is essential to developing a holistic view of the
workings of the coastal zone and addressing its anthropogenic
influences. Building effective models of coastal zone processes and
functioning for assessing the risks and strategic opportunities by
necessity must involve integration of scientific and social disciplines.

Thus, the goal of the Theme 3 working group was to develop a strategy to
improve the scientific understanding of the multi‑level interconnections
between coastal zones of the IAS and their adjacent oceans and land
areas, their attendant interconnections within coastal zones (reefs,
mangroves, grass beds, fisheries and estuaries), and relevance to
societal needs in the region. To accomplish this goal, our workshop
objective was to develop a strategy for scientific research which can
contribute to the solutions of societal problems of coastal zones, i.e.,
sustainable use of resources and protection of coastal environments. By
considering multiple levels of interactions we discuss an action plan to
facilitate integrated coastal zone management in the IAS. Then, by
considering a suite of strategic interconnections, we focus our
recommendations on multidisciplinary research.

Multilevel Interconnections of IAS Scientific and Social Issues:

What is needed and needed urgently to sustain the quality, productivity
and functioning of IAS coastal zones are scientific research programs
with much broader views of both the natural and anthropogenic processes
regulating ecosystem dynamics. These activities should apportioned to
the appropriate space and time scales for interacting biological,
physical and social systems, and configured to address the multiple
interconnections within and among aqueous, physical, and organismal
systems components that interface with society.

Aqueous Interconnections.‑ The productivity and functioning of the IAS
is strongly influenced by \"information\" passed by the flow of water,
nutrients and organic materials moved along corridors from land to sea,
and partly mediated by passage through mangrove forests, seagrass beds
to coral reefs (Figure 1). Thus, deepened understanding of the
cumulative impacts of human‑dominated ecosystems and the fluxes of
materials (e.g., nutrients, pollutants, and larvae) between coastal
habitats and environments from land‑to‑sea and vice versa is critically
needed. The IAS is characterized by a permanent thermocline that results
in low nutrient concentrations in the photic zone. Therefore, many
waters are very clear and the dominant ecosystems, such as coral reefs
and seagrass meadows are \"adapted\" to low nutrient conditions.
Unfortunately, such oligotrophic ecosystems are extremely sensitive to
nutrient inputs. Relatively small nutrient inputs can cause significant
ecological shifts: coral reefs overgrown by macroalgae; seagrasses
overgrown by epiphytic algae; benthic plant communities shaded out and
replaced by phytoplankton blooms and red tides.

The explosive growth of human population in the IAS coastal zones
continues to exacerbate the sources and quantities of nutrients entering
coastal ecosystems, so that better understanding of various natural and
anthropogenic materials in terms of source, time distribution and
concentrations that may affect the functioning and productivity of
coastal zones ecosystems is needed.

Physical Interconnections.‑ Knowledge of circulation and mass transport
in coastal zones is essential for quantitative assessment of many
societal problems and for better understanding of how the various fluxes
affect ecosystem productivity. Most Caribbean Islands differ from
continental areas in the region as they do not have extensive
continental shelves. Thus, it is important to know how circulation and
mass transport processes might differ across the IAS in different
geographic settings (e.g., the coastal zones of continents, high
islands, upstream or downstream in the Caribbean Current, with more
upwelling, at higher or lower latitudes). Therefore, we must identify
those circulation issues that are most helpful to managers who wish to
make industrial and development activities sustainable in a variable
environment. Just as societal issues are diverse, the investigation of
circulation patterns will encounter diverse ranges of physiographic,
bathymetric and forcing conditions. Are there sufficiently general
circulation situations that would result in information particularly
beneficial to managers if given special attention, e.g., lagoons, open
coasts, reef systems, river deltas, marinas, beaches, etc.? Many of the
societal problems are primarily concerned with longer‑term transport
pathways (Lagrangian trajectories) rather than the short‑term dynamic
environment (instantaneous currents). There are now technologies, e.g.,
optics, acoustics, radar, satellite‑tracked drifters that can provide
information on current direction and speed, wind, temperature,
bathymetry, etc., in a reasonably cost‑effective manner. Information
provided in a circulation analysis could consists of answers to
questions such as: (1) Where does the water and water‑borne matter go?;
(2) How long does it take?; and, (3) What happens to it underway?
Examples of problems where circulation information is needed include
environmental assessment of point and non‑point source pollution from
rivers, coastal development ‑ marinas, waterfront construction,
industries (aquaculture, fishing, petrochemical, etc). Influences of
currents and eddies on larval recruitment and pathways in the IAS is a
key part to understanding the variability of fisheries. Of particular
interest are the coastal and oceanic processes in the IAS, including
mesoscale circulation around coasts and within the EEZ, that influence
fisheries and ecosystem productivity. These studies would include formal
linkages of mesoscale physical transport‑hydrodynamics and fate models
that link the inshore coastal zone environments to offshore pelagic
environments, and vice versa.

Organismal Interconnections.‑ The long‑term declines in coral reefs,
many marine fisheries, and mangrove and seagrass habitats suggests some
urgency in developing a greater understanding of the abundances,
distribution, and biodiversity of plants, invertebrates and higher
vertebrate organisms in the IAS and how these affected by human
activities like development and fishing. The IAS is a complex marine
environment with high dimensioned biological settings that show strong
linkages between genetic, organism, population, community and
ecosystems. Reef fish reflect a life history pattern that provides
substantial interconnections between reef to bay, predator and prey, and
are sensitive indicators of anthropogenic activities, and thus can be
used as sensitive indicators of environmental stress and system changes.
During the ontogenetic migrations of reef fish and macroinvertebrates
(e.g., shrimps and lobsters) from coastal bays and inshore environments
as juveniles, to the offshore coral reefs as adults, these organisms
integrate multiple levels of natural and anthropogenic stresses found
across the coastal ocean ecosystem. This provides a logical focus for
science since determination of how many fish are in the sea is a subset
of a much broader goal which unites all ecological research, i.e., to
describe and understand the patterns of distribution and abundance of
organisms and to predict the impact of change on those patterns. But
while this focus is important, there still are fundamental gaps in
predictive understanding of complex food web interactions and trophic
transfer, the impacts of nutrients and physical processes on higher
trophic levels, the magnitude and nature of nekton populations beyond
the edge of the continental shelf and in the deep sea, the role of
top‑down control in regulating ocean food webs, accurate descriptions of
the distribution and diversity of marine organisms, and the impact of
energy flow through the food web on carbon and nutrient cycling. Greater
understanding of these topics might aid in predicting the causes of
ecosystem change and its resulting consequences for fisheries, mammal
populations, species and trophic interactions, and ecosystem structure
and dynamics. Full understanding of these processes and dynamics
requires greater research emphasis on mechanisms, i.e., how fisheries
are driven by the coupling of trophodynamic and physical factors, and
how these affect recruitment, and an assessment of the relationships
between resource dynamics and the habitats that supported increased
productivity. Management measures will need to be considered from an
ecosystem\'s perspective to gain insight into community‑level dynamics,
how recruitment variability is influenced by ocean currents and
distributions of habitats, and how these processes affect the production
dynamics of key resources.

Linking Science to the Human Dimension.‑ To link science with the human
dimension, research must be broadly focused on the linkages among the
production dynamics of fish populations; the biological community; the
physical environment; essential \'habitats\'; and, processes and desires
of society that underlie the situation and dictate policy. An essential
starting point for understanding the various levels of interconnections
in all scientific and social investigations is identifying the
distribution patterns of habitats and resources and assessing their
condition relative to factors like the shelf area to support fishery
production, extent of deep reef systems and baroclinic upwelling.
Habitat distribution is the foundation for examining relationships with
hydrography, geologic history and climate. For management, maps of
habitats are essential guides for decisions on utilization of resources,
preservation and zoning. Given the value of such basic distribution
patterns and assessments of condition, one would expect to find numerous
examples throughout the region. Surprisingly, our initial reconnaissance
found that for coastal zones of the IAS, only a few exist. Typically,
there is not sufficient information to conduct the kind of synoptic
assessment required to improve the overall management of coastal zones.
Integrated coastal zone management in the IAS must be linked not only
from biological and physical system perspectives, but also in terms of
the human components that interact and benefit from the efficient
functioning of these finely tuned and delicate ecosystems. Additionally,
there are substantial conflicts between user groups and interests in the
coastal zones and broad need for economic and cost‑benefit analyses to
determine which direction policy should go. A more fundamental question
might be the relative tradeoffs between development or modification of a
natural system relative to that derivative of the natural system\'s
functioning? What are the temporal and spatial scopes of the decision?
This suggests the need for building a scientific framework to conduct
active testing of several biological hypotheses, to link
interdisciplinary research efforts, to provide scientific guidance and
solid direction and support to management decision making. The objective
of these efforts would be to develop models capable of addressing
scientifically and societally relevant questions like: (1) What is the
pattern of human activities that will produce the greatest benefits and
fewest impacts?; (2) What is the probability that will occur?; and, (3)
What is the probability that the change can be detected? Focused
research in these areas would help to provide much needed strategic
advice on resource and environmental sustainability issues from a
precautionary point of view that meet societal needs while allowing us
to conserve marine biodiversity, build sustainable fisheries and provide
maximum opportunities from IAS coastal zones.

Conclusions:

\(1\) The coastal zones of the IAS offer a special opportunity to
address fundamental scientific and societal questions. They are centers
of biodiversity, areas of high productivity, and include examples of
integrated ecosystems whose marine communities are linked together by
region‑wide ocean circulation. They are moreover, principal resources
for tourism and fishing that support large human populations throughout
this vast region.

\(2\) We know that human impacts‑ runoff, development, and
over‑exploitation of resources ‑ are causing serious declines in some
IAS coastal zones. What we do not know is the extent of these declines
and how various impacts affect different environments. We are like
public health specialists faced with reports of the incidence of
diseases but who must first determine what, where, and how serious
before developing remedies.

\(3\) IAS coastal zones are a web of multi‑level interconnections. They
have fluid exchanges with both land and sea; their environments and
marine communities interact mangrove forests, sea grass beds and coral
reefs and within each environment, the organisms are interconnected with
fluid and physical processes. Identifying and understanding these
multi‑level interconnections is of paramount importance in addressing
the scientific and societal problems of IAS coastal zones.

Recommendations:

\(1\) The IAS coastal zones are so numerous, so diverse and the focus of
so many different studies both completed and active that a data
assimilation phase must be initiated wherein a comprehensive inventory
of existing information will provide the essential first step in
developing plans for research on multi‑level interconnections. These
studies should be complimented by fact‑finding visits to key locations.

\(2\) Scientists, engineers and government officials from throughout the
region must be involved from the beginning in developing background
information, identifying areas for research and planning and executing
specific projects. As a first step in developing human interconnections
to the scientific foci, three or four regional goal‑oriented workshops
should be organized and convened in which participants can have direct
contact with coastal zone problems and those who know them to help
develop specific plans of action. A principal focus of the workshop
should be on information gaps, survey designs, innovative technologies
and modeling. These workshops ought to be organized so as to develop
regional task forces and to initiate capacity building in the various
countries to sufficiently develop the integrated multilevel
interconnected research framework necessary to address regional
problems.

\(3\) The regional workshops combined with a comprehensive inventory of
existing information and projects can provide the foundation for
designing a comprehensive program of multidisciplinary research, which
must be focused on generic problems. Bringing together representatives
of the regional task forces may be the most efficient way to develop
project proposals.

B.  **Working Group IV.**

**Theme: A regional global observing system (GOOS) for the
Intra‑Americas Sea.**

Participants: C. Mooers (Co‑Chair), D. Wilson (Co‑Chair), D. Rogers
(Rapporteur), J. Batista, O. Brown, E. Chassignet, J. Corredor, K.
Leaman, E. Johns, W. Johns, G. Maul, R. Molinari, J. Morel,

R. Steer‑Ruiz, T. Townsend, F. Vidal, J. Woodley

Introduction:

In support of the IASI goals statement, particularly the development of
a long‑term science plan for IAS ocean studies, one of the four primary
IASI themes was \"An IAS Regional Ocean Observing System\". Pre‑meeting
feedback suggested that Theme IV should address the present de facto
observing system for the IAS, user requirements for improved
information, the research strategy for designing an optimal system, and
means of progressive implementation of an enhanced regional observing
system for the IAS; i.e., IAS GOOS. IASI meeting participants interested
in Theme IV met as a discussion group, and in plenary discussions with
Themes I‑III to insure that an IAS‑GOOS program will address their
research and operational needs.

Summary of Discussions:

Participants agreed that a regional, model‑based ocean observing system
(IAS‑GOOS) offers a unique and necessary framework to improve the
operational capacity of member countries and to improve the research
capability of the region\'s scientific community. An initial IAS‑GOOS
can be achieved by enhancing existing activities to provide more
real‑time data and more data relevant to the IAS ecosystems, by
developing information systems to ingest and distribute data
efficiently, and by using models as diagnostic and prognostic schemes.
It is essential in the formative stages to build on the existing
knowledge of the region\'s research community to define the observing
system and to establish the benefits of the system for the IAS.

Each country is likely to take a different approach to the development
and implementation of such a system, but it will only be effective
through partnerships between scientists from different institutions in
the region. In light of this, an organized effort to design, promote,
and maintain an IAS GOOS is desirable. The Global Ocean Observing System
‑ GOOS ‑ is coordinated by the IOC (as well as WMO, UNEP, and ICSU) to
increase the operational ocean information available to the world
community for application to societal concerns, including climate and
global change research, coastal ocean ecosystem studies, etc. In
addition to, and to better utilize, global scale observing systems, IOC
recognizes the need for regional and national (coastal) observing
systems. It was felt that the best way to proceed in the organization of
an IAS regional observing system was under the aegis of IOC ‑ GOOS,
through IOCARIBE, the regional IOC subcommission.

Participants recognized the broad utility and necessity of an IAS‑GOOS,
based on their scientific knowledge and awareness of regional issues.
With respect to supporting IASI science objectives, it is expected that
IAS GOOS will (at the very least) utilize regional physical measurements
along with global GOOS‑derived boundary conditions to support regional
models, provide regional scale physical measurements and boundary
conditions to smaller scale models, and provide a framework for linking
coastal operational activities within the region. At the outset,
IAS‑GOOS will probably emphasize observations supporting marine
operations, climate studies, and fisheries/environmentally‑significant
physics. The societal relevance (and the multidisciplinary complexity)
increase in moving from the larger to the smaller scales. An important
initial task will be to further identify the IAS‑GOOS user‑community and
to determine their present and future needs, in a way that entrains them
as stakeholders in, and advocates for, IAS‑GOOS.

Within the larger research community, CLIVAR is planning several studies
which involve the IAS, including VAMOS with its focus on the monsoonal
systems of the Americas. Similarly, the U.S. Weather Research Program\'s
top priority is land‑falling hurricanes, especially in the IAS. A Large
Marine Ecosystem (LME) study is planned for the Caribbean Sea. Mutually
beneficial relationships are possible between these programs and
IAS‑GOOS.

Recommendations for formalizing the creation of an IAS‑GOOS:

\(1\) A Preparatory Committee should be established to draft terms of
reference and a plan for IAS‑GOOS. This document would be submitted to
IOCARIBE for approval and forwarding to IOC for ratification as an
official GOOS activity. Once ratified, member states would provide
official representatives to an IAS‑GOOS oversight entity, and the
Preparatory Committee would be supported by a Scientific Steering Group
of experts. The terms of reference and preliminary plan must be prepared
in time for review prior to presentation at the April, 1999 IOCARIBE
General Assembly.

\(2\) In addition to the immediate phased implementation of an organized
observational network based on existing measurements (discussed further
below), a survey of IAS nations should be carried out similar to that
recently completed by EUROGOOS. This survey would be used to better
determine existing use of ocean data and models, and furure needs of the
user community. It is recommended that the EUROGOOS survey be used as a
basis and modified to IAS‑GOOS requirements.

> While the range of possible activities that IAS‑GOOS can address is
> very large, it was suggested that the observing system should (at
> least at the outset):

A.  Provide synoptic maps (and selected transects) of mesoscale
    variability and surface mixed layer properties of the IAS;

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1.  Monitor the IAS for indicators of climate and global change;

    1.  Provide comprehensive estimates of the Lagrangian transport
        through the IAS;

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    1.  Monitor (and distribute information on) the \"State of the
        IAS\"as it affects regional environmental conditions and
        forecasts;

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    1.  Detect and provide early warning of natural hazards, such as
        tsunamis.

Sustaining such an observing system will depend on making better use of
existing observations, defining the requirements for new observations,
and providing for the development of new technologies as appropriate.
For instance, monitoring the effect of climate variability on the IAS
requires that we consider the entire ecosystem, extending observational
requirements to biogeochemical systems as well as the physical. Primary
drivers for the IAS biogeochemical system are river runoff, Lagrangian
transport, and upwelling, which affect nutrient supply and thence
biomass. Monitoring these will require a comprehensive strategy that
utilizes existing observational tools, but also will require new sensors
and applications as well as innovations in data assimilation and
numerical modeling. A hierarchy of numerical models is envisioned, with
basin‑scale models with resolution of 10 km/12 hr or less supporting
regional/local models with resolution approaching 1 km/1 hr, considered
necessary to be effective in nowcasting / forecasting of coastal ocean
ecosystem processes.

Technologies to be incorporated into an observing system were discussed.
Some are in place, others are under development , or require refinement,
implementation, and testing:

\(1\) Instrumented fixed buoys or platforms capable of measuring
components of the biogeo­chemical system as well as the physical
structure of the ocean and atmosphere. These point measurements should
provide data in real‑time and will provide continuity and context for
Lagrangian measurements and data for assimilation into numerical models.

\(2\) Lagrangian devices including surface drifters, profiling floats
and gliders, which can carry a suite of sensors capable of measuring a
wide range of biogeochemical and physical parameters. New platforms and
sensors are under development.

\(3\) Volunteer observing ship (VOS) programs, which can be expanded
using new innovative technologies, including automatic ocean and
atmosphere profilers and underway near‑surface water property
measurements.

\(4\) Remote sensing, including satellite oceanic and atmospheric
measurements, land‑based remote sensing such as Over the Horizon Radar,
and integrating observations such as transport estimates from submerged
telephone cables.

Given the existence of an IAS‑GOOS program, initial efforts would be
based on continuing existing regional programs, extending existing
global observational programs into the region, and aggregrating and
sharing data from all sources.

Recommendations for IAS GOOS initial implementation:

\(1\) Assess the existing observational systems within the IAS.
Coordinate and integrate the existing sampling systems into a network
for the region. Ensure continuity of existing observational efforts.
Identify all users.

\(2\) Determine the limitations of the network and identify regions
where additional data or less data may be needed. Use model guidance to
determine the optimum mix of observations for the IAS. This mix may vary
with model‑type, application, and user needs.

\(3\) Fully exploit existing time series; e.g., the CaTS biogeochemical
time series station in the northeastern Caribbean Sea (occupied
bi‑monthly by the University of Puerto Rico) and secure continuity of
observations, as appropriate.

\(4\) Assess the existing numerical models. It is anticipated that
several models will be applied to the region and such diversity should
be encouraged. Determine data needs of models with respect to data
assimilation and skill assessment.

\(5\) Determine appropriate operational products. For example, synoptic
maps of meandering jets, mesoscale eddies, fronts, mixed layer depth,
and mixed layer temperature and salinity.

\(6\) Implement the use of an information system to ingest and
distribute data to users.

It was considered that IAS‑GOOS will be phased into full operational
status over a ten‑year period, following the proposed plan below:

2000 ‑ 2003 Assessments, organization, and enhancements of existing
observational and modeling systems. Development of data collection and
distribution system.

2003 ‑ 2006 Initiate IAS‑RODAE. (Regional Ocean Data Assimilation
Experiment)

Combine observational network with numerical models to assess
performance and needs of both.

2006 ‑ 2010 Full implementation of first generation observation /model /
distribution system.

Commence verification studies and design of system upgrades.

**III. Summary of Principal Recommendations**

1.  We must further develop and expand the scientific understanding of
    key identified processes in the IAS to support and further efforts
    of the region to improve the sustainable development of their
    resources.

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1.  We must establish a functioning, feasible regional GOOS and begin to
    carry out observations on a regular and sustained basis; these
    observations must be synthesized into forecast models that provide
    us with predictive capabilities for phenomena with the greatest IAS
    societal impacts. In those cases where more basic research into the
    phenomenon in question may be required, IAS‑GOOS should be designed
    in such a way as to facilitate this basic research. This is
    especially true in areas such as the question of physical/biological
    linkages, where our current knowledge is at best rudimentary.

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1.  We must increase capacity‑building efforts in the IAS in order to
    strengthen IAS research/operational infrastructure. Only in this
    manner will IASI participants be able to utilize fully the
    information provided by an IAS‑GOOS.

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1.  We must implement and support through IASI an efficient network for
    the exchange of information. Parts of this network (e.g. the IAI
    TCCC network in CATHALAC, the AOML library electronic exchange)
    already exist. These should be strengthened.

**IV. Future Actions and Activities**

In addition to the general goals over the next decade that have been
laid out above under the different theme discussions, a number of more
concrete activities and actions have been agreed to as a result of the
IASI planning meeting.

With regard to an IAS‑GOOS we will establish a preparatory committee and
prepare a justification for an IAS‑GOOS. This will be presented to an
IOCARIBE meeting in late April 1999 and ultimately to the IOC for
approval in Paris in Summer 1999. It is then planned that years
2000‑2003 will be devoted to assessment and enhancement of existing
observational and modeling systems. From 2003‑2006 a regional data
assimilation experiment will be carried out in the IAS in order to
evaluate observational/modeling system performance. Finally, years
2006‑2010 are planned for the first implementation of the
first‑generation observation/model/distribution system.

In order to provide a coherent program organization for IASI/IAS‑GOOS,
we will establish a program office with partial staff support at the
University of Miami.

The participants and contributors to the IASI planning meeting agreed to
institute a regular series of IASI program and scientific meetings
(alternating by year) starting in 1999‑2000. We will seek support to
hold these meetings at various locations in the IAS. It is anticipated
that the first scientific meeting will be held in Panama, R.P. in winter
1999‑2000.

**V. References**

(Needed from those of you who have them).

**VI. List of Attendees**

Bruce Albrecht

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

Telephone: 305/361‑4943

balbrecht@rsmas.miami.edu

Jose J. Alio

Researcher

Ministry of Agriculture ‑ FONAIAP

Cumana, Sucre

Venezuela 6101

alio@sucre.und.edu.ve

58‑93‑31557

Daniel Anderegg

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

dandregg@rsmas.miami.edu

Steven P. Anderson

Department of Physical Oceanography

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Mail Stop 29

Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

sanderson@whoi.edu

Jerry Ault

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4884

jault@rsmas.miami.edu

Gloria Batista Vega

Instituto del Canal de Panama

de Desarrollo Sostenible

en la entrada del Canal de Panama

Apdo. A.A. 527, Balboa, Ancon, Panama

Tel.: 269‑9962 / 228‑4029 (Res.)

Fax: 269‑9963

E‑mail: batistag@tivoli.si.edu

Jose Manuel Batista

University of Panama

Estafeta, Panama

e‑mail: MRTD‑JMB@pancanal.com

507/2330271 or 2636133 X 190

Barbara A. Best

AAS Science and Diplomacy Fellow

U.S. Agency for International Development

Global Environment Center, G/ENV/ENR

1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Room 308

Washington, DC 20523‑3800

Tel.: 202/712‑0553, FAX: 202/216‑317,

bbest@usaid.gov

Jim Bohnsack

SEFC/NOAA

75 Virginia Beach Drive

Miami, Florida 33149

305/361‑4252

jim.bohnsack@noaa.gov

Larry Brand

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149‑1098

lbrand@rsmas.miami.edu

Julio Calderon

Sustainable Development Networking Programme

USMA

P. O. Box 6‑169

Panama 6

Republic of Panama

jcalderon@sdnp.org.pa

Eric Chassignet

RSMAS/MPO

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

305/361‑4041

echassignet@rsmas.miami.edu

Shuyi Chen

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4048, schen@rsmas.miami.edu

Jorge Cortes

Universidad de Costa Rica

Centro de Investigacion en ciencias

del Mar y Limnologia (CIMAR)

San Jose, Costa Rica

Tel: 506/207‑5228; FAX: 506/224‑3710

email: msegura@cariari.ucr.ac.cr

Jorge E. Corredor

University of Puerto Rico

Department of Marine Science

P. O. Box 908, Lajas, Puerto Rico 00667‑0908

quimocea@caribe.net

Robert Cowen

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑

rcowen@rsmas.miami.edu

Maria Criales

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4073

mcriales@rsmas.miami.edu

Jackie Dixon

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4150

jdixon@rsmas.miami.edu

Tim Dixon

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4660

tdixon@rsmas.miami.edu

Richard Dodge

Nova University

8000 North Ocean Drive

Dania, FL 33004

Tel: 954/920‑1909, FAX: 954/921‑7764

dodge@ocean.nova.edu

Maria Donoso

CATHALAC

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4976

cathalac@rsmas.miami.edu

Gregor Eberli

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098, USA

gerberli@rsmas.miamni.edu

James Edson

ONR/IPA

Arlington, VA 22215

edsonj@onr.navy.mil

Nelson Ehrhardt

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4741

nehrhardt@rsmas.miami.edu

David Enfield

NOAA/AOML/PhOD

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149, USA

enfield@aoml.noaa.gov

Elva Escobar‑Briones

Calle 15 No. 51‑ San Pedro de los Pinos

03800 Mexico City, Mexico

phone (525) 622‑5835, fax (525)616‑0748

email: ufix@servidor.unam.mx or

escobri@mar.icmyl.unam.mx

Paul Filmer

National Science Foundation

Inter‑American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)

4201 Wilson Blvd., Suite 1070

Arlington, VA 22230

USA, (703) 306‑1515

\(703\) 306‑0091, pfilmer@nsf.gov

Rana Fine

MAF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

rfine@rsmas.miami.edu

Jim Fourqurean

Dept. of Biology

Florida International University,

Miami, FL 33165

305/348‑4084, email: fourqure@fiu.edu

Carlos Garcia‑Saez

Honduras Coral Reef Fund

Cayos Cochinos, 1148 SW

22 Terrace, Miami, FL 33129, USA

Jorge Garcia

University of Puerto Rico

P. O. Box 5000

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico 00681

Tel.: 787/899‑2048 FAX: 787/899‑5500

renigor@caribe.net

Silvia Garzoli

AOML/NOAA

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149, USA

David Gillman

National Coral Reef Institute

Nova Southeastern University,

8000 N. Ocean Dr., Dania, FL 33004

Tel;954/920‑1909, FAX: 954/921‑7764

Robert Ginsburg

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4875

rginsburg@rsmas.miami.edu

Jaime Gonzalez‑Cano

Aptdo. Postal 580, 77500,

Cancun, Mexico

0052‑987‑10076

icfkaise@mail.teesa.com

Judith Gray

NOAA/AOML

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

Tel: 305/361 FAX: 305/361

e‑mail:judy.gray@noaa.gov

Nicolaas de Groot

Deputy Director/CATHALAC

P.O. Box 873372, Zona 7, Panama, Panama.

\(507\) 232‑6738/232‑ 6851/2326805 /

F. 2326834, cathalac@sinfo.ney,

http://www2.usma.ac.pa/\~cathalac/

Henrike M. Groschel‑Becker

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4903, FAX: 305/361‑4632

hgroschel@rsmas.miami.edu

Gary Hitchcock

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4926

ghitchcock@rsmas.miami.edu

Elizabeth Johns

Physical Oceanography

NOAA/AOML

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

JOHNS@aoml.noaa.gov

William Johns

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4054

wjohns@rsmas.miami.edu

David Jones

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098, USA

djones@rsmas.miami.edu

Philip Kramer

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

Email: pkramer@rsmas.miami.edu

Kevin Leaman

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4102

kleaman@rsmas.miami.edu

Thomas Lee

MPO/RSMAS, University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4046

tlee@rsmas.miami.edu

Clement D. Lewsey

International Programs Coordinator

NOAA/NOA

1305 East/West Highway

Silver Spring, MD 20910

Tel.: 301/713‑3078 X136 FAX 301/713‑4263

e‑mail: clewsey@ocean.nos.noaa.gov

Ken Lindeman

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, FL 33149‑1098

Email: klindeman@rsmas.miami.edu

Diego Lirman

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, FL 33149‑1098

Email: dlieman@rsmas.miami.edu

Tim McClanahan

The Wildlife Conservation Society

Coral Reef Conservation Project

P. O. Box 99470

Mombasa, Kenya

254/11‑485570; 254/11‑472215, 485570

crcp@africaonline.co.ke

Frank D. Marks, Jr.

Hurricane Research Department

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149

Tel. 305‑361‑4321 FAX305‑361‑4402

marks@aoml.noaa.gov

George Maul

Division of Marine and Environmental Systems,

Florida Institute of Technology

150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, Florida

32901‑6988;

FAX:407/768‑7453

gmaul@marine.fit.edu

Richard Meganck

Director, Unit of Sustainable Development & Environment

Organization of American States

1889 F. Street, NW

Washington, DC

rmeganck@oas.org

Jeremy J. Mendoza

Associate Professor

Instituto de Oceanografica

Universidad de Oriente

Cumana, Sucre, Venezuela 6101

Tel.: 58‑93‑302137 FAX 58‑93‑321486

jmendoza@cumana.sucre.udo.edu.ve

Helena Molina

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4165

hmolina@rsmas.miami.edu

Robert Molinari

NOAA/AOML

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149, USA

molinari@aoml.noaa.gov

Christopher Mooers

OPRC/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4088

cmooers@rsmas.miami.edu

Julio M. Morel

University of Puerto Rico

Dept. of Marine Science

P.O. Box 5000

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico 00681

oceano@coqui.net

Steve Murray

Louisiana State University

smurray@antares.sci.lsu.edu

Donald Olson

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4074

dolson@rsmas.miami.edu

Jose Ochoa de la Torre

CICESE

Physical Oceanography Department

KM. 107, Carret. Tijuana ‑ Ensenada

Ensenada, B.C., Mexico 22860

jochoa@cicese.mx

Jose Daniel Pabon

Director de Meteorologia

IDEAM

Ministerio de Medio Ambiente

Carrera 5 No 15‑80, Piso 18,

20032 Santafé de Bogotá, Colombia

Tel: (++57‑1) 635‑6045

Telfax: (++57‑1) 635‑4810

e.mail: jdpabonc@ideam.gov.co

Steve Paton

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI)

P.O. Box 2072

Balboa, Ancon

Panama

Republic of Panama

Tel: (++507) 2276022, Fax: (++507) 2325978

e.mail: STRI.TIVOLI.PATONS@ic.si.edu

Larry Peterson

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4692

lpeterson@rsmas.miami.edu

Victor Restrepo

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4022

vrestrepo@rsmas.miami.edu

Carlos Rivero

MGG/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149‑1098

Email: crivero@rsmas.miami.edu

Mitch Roffer

Roffer\'s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.

2871 SW 69 Ct., Miami, FL 33155

Tel: 305/262‑8336 FAX: 305/265‑9077

Email: mitch@roffs.com

David Rogers

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

La Jolla, CA

619/534‑6412

drogers@ucsd.edu

Claes Rooth

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4162

crooth@rsmas.miami.edu

Sharon Smith

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

ssmith@rsmas.miami.edu

Sam Snedaker

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4624

ssnedaker@rsmas.miami.edu

Su Sponaugle

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4069 FAX: 305/361‑4600

ssponaugle@rsmas.miami.edu

Rafael Steer‑Ruiz

IOC Regional Secretary for

IOCARIBE

Apartado Aereo 1108

Cartagena de Indias

Colombia

575‑664‑6399 FAAX: 575/660‑0407

r.steer‑ruiz@unesco.org

Daniel Suman

MAF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149‑1098, USA

305/361‑4685

dsuman@rsmas.miami.edu

Peter Swart

RSMAS, University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149

305/361‑4103

email: pswart@rsmas.miami.edu

Alina Szmant

MBF/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4609

aszmant@rsmas.miami.edu

Kathleen Sullivan‑Sealy

University of Miami

Department of Biology

215 Cox Science Building

Coral Gables, Florida 33124‑0421, USA

sullivan@benthos.cox.miami.edu

Tammy Townsend

NOL/NOARL Naval Research Lab.,

MC7320, Stennis Space

Center, MS 39529, USA

228/688‑5589 FAX 228/688‑4759

townsend@nrlssc.navy.mil

Jose Vargas

Director CIMAR,

Universidad de Costa Rica,

San Pedro/San Jose, Costa Rica 2060

506/253‑5661, FAX 506/253‑5661

javargas@cariari.ucr.ac.c

Sandra L. Vargo

Assistant Director

Florida Institute of Oceanography

830 First Street S

St. Petersburg, FL 33701

Tel: 727/553‑1100 FAX: 727/553‑1109

svargo@marine.usf.edu

Francisco Vidal Lorandi

Instituto Politecnico Nacional

Av. Reforma No. 133, Col. Palmira

Temixco, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490

Mexico

Tel:52‑73/183811 X‑7542 FAX 52‑73/189854

fvidal@iie.org.mx

Roy Watlington

General Education Reform Project

Professor of Physics,

University of the Virgin Islands

St. Thomas

Virgin Islands 00802

809‑693‑1391, rwatlin@uvi.edu

Arun Wagh

Director

Institute of Marine Affairs

P. O. Box 3160, Carenage Post Office

Carenage, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Tel:868/634‑4051 (direct) or 4291/4 FAX 868/634‑4433

director@ima.gov.tt

John Wang

AMP/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, FL 33149‑1098

email: jwang@rsmas.miami.edu

W. Douglas Wilson

AOML/NOAA

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149, USA

wilson@aoml.noaa.gov

Jeremy Woodley

University of the West Indies

Mona Campus

Kington 7, Jamaica WI

Tel: 876/927‑1609 or 935‑8276 FAX: 876/977‑1075

woodley@uwimona.edu.jm

Chidong Zhang

MPO/RSMAS

University of Miami

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149‑1098

305/361‑4042

czhang@rsmas.miami.edu

**VII. Additional Contributors**

Beatrice P. Ferreira

Dept. de Oceanografia

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

Recife, Pernambuco

Brazil

Tel.: 5581‑6761437 FAX: 5581‑6761437

email: beatrice@ibama.gov.br

Rodolfo Claro Madruga

Instituto de Oceanologia, CITMA

1ra. No 18406. Playa. Ciudad Habana, Cuba

Fax: (537) 33 9497

e‑mail: rclaro@oceano.inf.cu

Roberto Perez

Institute of Oceanology (IDO‑CITMA).

Ave. 1ra. No. 18406 entre 184 y 186.

Flores, Playa, Habana 21,

Ciudad de La Habana,

Cuba. C.P. 12100.

TeleFAX : (537) 33‑9112;

Phone: (537) 21‑6008;

E‑mail: rperez@oceano.inf.cu

Ivan Victoria.

Instituto de Oceanologla

Ave. 1, No. 18406, Rpto. Flores, Playa,

Ciudad de la Habana, Cuba

ivanv@oceano.inf.cu

**VIII. Appendix 1. Meeting Agenda**

AGENDA

Intra‑Americas Sea Initiative (IASI)

Research Planning Meeting

Miami, FL, October 21 ‑ 23, 1998

**October 21**

0830‑0900 Registration and coffee

0900‑0930 Welcome to RSMAS and orientation

0930‑1015 Theme 1

‑Summary of participant responses

‑Questions about responses and open research issues

1015‑1100 Theme 2

‑Summary of participant responses

‑Questions about responses and open research issues

1100‑1130 Break

1130‑1215 Theme 3

‑Summary of participant responses

‑Questions about responses and open research issues

1215‑1300 Theme 4

‑Summary of participant responses

‑Questions about responses and open research issues

1300‑1430 Lunch

1430‑1500 Establish and task working groups

1500‑1600 Working group discussions

‑Identify scientific questions and priorities

1600‑1630 Break

1630‑1800 Working group discussions (continued)

**October 22**

0830‑0900 Coffee and informal meetings

0900‑1030 Working group discussions and informal presentations

1030‑1100 Break

1100‑1230 Plenary session. Preliminary working group reports

1230‑1400 Lunch

1400‑1530 Working group discussions

‑Formulation of research approach

1530‑1600 Break

1600‑1730 Opportunities for agency comments

**October 23**

0830‑0900 Coffee and informal discussions

0900‑1030 Working group meetings to finalize research approach

1030‑1100 Break

1100‑1230 Plenary session

‑Presentation of final‑report drafts by working groups

1230‑1400 Lunch

1400‑1600 Plenary session

‑Consideration of future actions

**IX. Appendix 2.**

**Collected Summaries of Participants\' and Attendees\'**

**Working Contributions**

Theme 1.

Alina Szmant

Physical interactions of land, sea and air in the IAS.

\(2\) How sensitive are atmospheric circulations and convection regimes
over the IAS to local SST variability and to variations in the Western
Hemisphere Warm Pool? What are the climatic variations in intensity and
location of the Warm Pool? How does the IAS influence (and how is it
influenced by) tropical storms in the region, including extreme sea
states?

(Important for Theme 3).

Storms are important in the redistribution of dissolved and suspended
particulate substances, such as nutrients. How do storm patterns affect
fluxes of nutrients from coastal to oceanic areas, or by affecting rates
and location of upwelling and downwelling events?

\(6\) How are mass, heat, momentum and important chemical species
transported through the Caribbean Island passages (e.g. Windward
Passage).

Again, rates of the various forms of nutrients (P, N, Si) entering the
various passages and their direction of transport, and transformations
over time.

Based on this summary it is useful for everyone to place himself or
herself in context by thinking about your answers to the following three
questions:

\(1\) What physical processes or phenomena are least understood in terms
of their impact on your environment? What is the \"state of knowledge\"
of these processes, both locally and around the IAS?

\(2\) What physical processes or phenomena have the greatest impact or
influence on your environment, whether in purely physical terms or in
relation to areas such as disasters, tourism, economy, etc?

\(3\) What physical processes or phenomena that are important in your
locale are most interconnected to similar processes taking place in
other regions of the IAS?

\(A\) Energy in coastal areas that moves sediment and nutrients to
offshore repositories

\(B\) Upwelling

\(C\) Rates of burial of nutrients in deeper Caribbean basins

\(D\) Rates of input of nutrients into coastal areas, and how these are
affected by different land use patterns

Theme 2.

Larval recruitment pathways and biological/physical linkages on
fisheries.

GENERAL LONG‑TERM QUESTION ABOUT CARIBBEAN TROPHODYNAMICS: IS THE NATURE
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEING SHIFTED FROM MORE OLIGOTROPHIC TOWARDS MORE
EUTROPHIC BY CONTINUED ENRICHMENT OF THE BASIN BY (A) ACCELERATED INPUT
OF NUTRIENTS AND ORGANICS FROM LAND‑MARGINS BECAUSE OF POOR LAND USE
PRACTICES, SOIL EROSION, SEWAGE ETC?, AND (B) NATURAL EUTROPHICATION BY
THE ACCUMULATION OVER TIME OF NUTRIENTS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THRU THE
PASSES \[I.E. LIKE LAKES CHANGE OVER TIME; WHAT IS THE BALANCE BETWEEEN
WHAT COMES INTO THE BASIN THRU THE PASSES AND WHAT LEAVES THRU THE UPPER
PASSAGES?\]. (B) CHANCES OF WOULD BE GREATER IF MUCH OF THE INPUTS STAY
IN THE UPPER WATER COLUMN; IF MOST OF THE INPUTS ARE BURIED IN THE DEEP
BASINS, THEN IT WOULD TAKE A LONG TIME FOR EUTROPHICATION TO TAKE PLACE.
CHANGES IN THE GENERAL NUTRIENT AND ORGANIC CARBON FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
AFFECT UPPER PARTS OF THE FOOD CHAIN.

Theme 1

Jorge E. Corredor and Julio M. Morell

Statement of Research Interests

TASC is the Tropical Atmospheric Sciences Center in Puerto Rico; a
consortium of research and educational institutions partially funded by
NASA. The UPR ‑ Department of Marine Sciences is contributing to TASC
with a study devoted to identifying and quantifying marine sources of
nitrous oxide to the atmosphere. Current global budgets of atmospheric
nitrous oxide fluxes underestimate the contribution of coastal marine
environments. We are quantifying the fluxes from coastal and offshore
tropical settings in order to better assess the role of marine
environments in the global nitrous oxide balance.

In Caribbean and Atlantic waters adjacent to Puerto Rico, a gradient of
increasing nitrous oxide with depth is apparent. In offshore Caribbean
waters, fluxes are moderated by strong water mass stratification. Fluxes
from deep waters along the north coast of Puerto Rico are, however,
significantly enhanced by land‑sea interactions which cause erosion of
the main pycnocline and water mass mixing. Mean fluxes computed for
stratified Caribbean waters are on the order of 1 micromole per meter
square per day compared to 5 micromole per meter square per day from
less stratified Atlantic waters.

In the mangrove intertidal region, fluxes are significantly greater with
observed rates ranging from 6 to 190 micromole per meter square per day.
Fluxes from these environments are highly variable and dependent upon
the availability and nature of nitrogenous substrate. Thus, fluxes from
pristine environments are moderate (6 ‑ 8 micromole per meter square per
day), those from an area subject to massive nitrate inputs from a sewage
treatment plant are intermediate (ca. 30 micromole per meter square per
day) and those from a mangrove stand subject to large ammonium inputs
from a bird rookery range up to 190 micromole per meter square per day.
The notable enhancement of nitrous oxide flux in ammonium enriched
versus nitrate enriched environments implicates nitrification as the
dominant process for nitrous oxide evolution in these environments.

Themes 3 and 4

The Department of Marine Sciences of the University of Puerto Rico, with
financial support from NASA\'s Mission to Planet Earth, is carrying out
a research program to assess the magnitude of basin‑scale phenomena
affecting surface seawater parameters in the eastern Caribbean basin. In
the eastern Caribbean, Orinoco River effluents have been detected as far
north as Puerto Rico and have been shown to significantly augment
surface phytoplankton biomass. A program of direct sampling at sea is
currently underway to characterize temporal and spatial variations in
the composition, productivity and respiration of planktonic communities,
together with observations of ocean optics and physical and chemical
variations, as influenced by riverine flux. Data obtained at sea is
being correlated to satellite‑based ocean color imagery from the SeaWiFS
satellite sensor. These studies are expected to result in a
cost‑effective means for synoptic, real‑time assessment of basin‑scale
riverine effects through satellite observations of ocean color. Our
research is geared towards understanding of these effects upon
phytoplankton productivity and biomass and towards the estimation of
these parameters from satellite sensors. We maintain a monthly time
series at a station denoted Caribbean Time Series (CaTS) at 17o38\' N
67o W occupied aboard the R/V ISLA MAGUEYES.

Among other features, we have documented the intensity and variability
of continental riverine intrusions from the Orinoco River and provided
documentary evidence of the enhancement of biological productivity by
these seasonal intrusions in an otherwise oligotrophic sea. Our work has
demonstrated that dissolved organic matter of terrestrial origin plays a
central role in the fertilization of surface waters of the eastern
Caribbean basin. This material, though refractive to microbial
degradation, is susceptible to UV‑photodegradation on a time scale of
weeks to months. Such photodegradation brings about the release of
ammonium nitrogen thus providing a continuous nutrient source to
microbial communities in the upper water column.

INPUTS FROM OUR GROUP

With regard to theme 1, our work indicates that the IAS may constitute a
significant source of atmospherically active gases and that
anthropogenic influence can be expected to enhance these fluxes through
various pathways. We expect that, through IASI these observations may be
expanded in both space and time and that a clearer picture of the IAS
contribution to atmospheric forcing may emerge.

With regard to themes 3 & 4, we believe that the establishment of a
network of ocean observing stations in the IAS region is imperative.
Such a network will provide nowcasting and forecasting capability for
relevant issues such as sea surface warming, salinity changes and
changes in atmospherically active gas emissions. Sea surface warming has
been implicated in coral bleaching and the demise of coral reefs,
changes which can in turn have deleterious consequences on fisheries and
tourism.

Salinity changes in the IAS region may have significant consequences on
global ocean circulation. Our experience in the implementation of the
CaTS station can serve as a guide to other groups. We are eager to share
this expertise and expect that the \"critical mass\" effect obtained
with the implementation of additional time series stations will result
in a better understanding of IAS dynamics and more robust forecasting
capability.

Theme 1

Steven P. Anderson

Statement of Research Interests:

My research interests include air‑sea interactions and the fine scale
motions (10 cm ‑100 m) in the upper ocean that provide a link between
the large scale tidal and atmospheric forcing of the ocean and the
turbulent dissipation and mixing scales. Oceanic phenomena occurring at
these scales include surface gravity waves, internal gravity waves,
oceanic boundary layers, oceanic fronts, intrusions and double diffusive
convection. I hope to improve our understanding of these physical
processes by acquiring and analyzing observations and developing simple
models to describe the processes. This work will eventually lead to a
better parameterization of upper oceanic processes and marine boundary
layers for use in modeling and forecasting.

My dissertation research was a study of the vertical finestructure of
temperature, salinity and velocity associated with internal gravity
waves and frontal dynamics. My graduate studies were conducted at the
Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San
Diego under the guidance of Robert Pinkel (SIO). During the Surface Wave
Processes Program (SWAPP) which took place in 1990 about 500km off the
coast of central California, we collected most of the data used in my
dissertation. This includes 12,000 profiles of temperature, salinity and
microconductivity from the surface to 420m taken during 18 days.
Classical internal gravity wave models assume that the internal gravity
wave field is a linear supposition of waves in Eulerian coordinates. Our
observations revealed that self advection of the wave field is
significant and that the internal gravity field appeared more linear
when observed in Lagrangian coordinates. We also found that the vertical
scales of temperature and salinity structure near an oceanic front are
determined by double diffusive convective processes rather than internal
gravity wave forcing.

I am currently investigating the physical processes leading to the
formation of the Pacific Warm Pool located in the Western Equatorial
Pacific. In this region, some of the highest open ocean surface
temperatures are found. The coupling of the response of the ocean to the
atmosphere in this region is seen on large zonal scales and thus is
directly linked to global climate shifts. I am working with R. Weller
(WHOI) and A. Plueddemann (WHOI) on data that we collected as part of
the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere
Response Experiment (COARE). A Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Discus Buoy was moored in the center of the TOGA‑COARE Intensive Flux
Array in the western Pacific warm water pool from October 1992 to March
1993. The buoy provided a continuous time series of meteorological
observations and of temperature, salinity and velocity from a dense
array of instruments located on the mooring line from the surface to 130
m. I have been using the surface meteorological observations to estimate
heat and momentum fluxes at the sea surface and investigating the near
surface response of the ocean to this forcing. We have found that in the
western tropical Pacific the buoyancy contribution from the fresh water
fluxes plays an important role in the surface mixed layer dynamics by
controlling mixed layer depths and limiting entrainment cooling. Thus
the high rainfall rates work to support the high sea surface
temperatures found in the warm pool. We also found that gridded flux
fields from numerical weather prediction models (NWP), which are
typically used to force large scale ocean circulation models, have large
errors which may be linked to a poor parameterization of clouds in the
region.

My analysis of the TOGA COARE data is proceeding with a study of the
three dimensional mixed layer response to spatially varying surface
forcing. This modeling study started when I spent one month in 1996,
hosted by R. Lukas (UH), as a Visiting Scientist at the Joint Institute
for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii at
Manoa. While there, I implemented on the Maui Super Computer a
three‑dimensional model of the ocean surface mixed layer originally
developed by J. Price (WHOI). The goal of this modeling effort is to
understand the oceanic response to small scale spatial variability in
air‑sea fluxes associated with tropical squall lines. The surface
forcing fields required for such a study must be of high spatial (1 km)
and temporal (\~ 1 minute) resolution. I have taken a unique approach to
the study utilizing surface forecast fields from cloud resolving
atmospheric models to force the model. This effort is a collaboration
with meteorologists S. Trier (NCAR) and J. L. Redelsperger (Meteo
France). Initial results show that spatial variability in model mixed
layer depth and salinity fields are well matched to those observed and
that horizontal mixing is primarily due to by shear dispersion as
shallow fresh lenses are accelerated downwind preferentially to the
deeper saltier mixed layers surrounding them.

I have especially enjoyed the interactions with other investigators that
has resulted from the COARE data analysis. I collaborated with D.
Waliser (SUNY) and W. Collins (SIO) to quantify the shortwave cloud
forcing in the warm pool region. Work with C. Fairall (NOAA) and F.
Bradley (CSIRO) has led to an improved understanding and quantification
of errors in measuring surface downwelling long‑wave radiation. An
implementation of a very simple mixed layer model with a regulation
mechanism was tested using our mooring data with G. Lagerloaf (ESR) and
R. Lukas (UH). This study found that much of the sea surface temperature
variability could be captured by using a damping time scale of
approximately 50 days. Comparison of our mooring data with several other
buoy, aircraft and shipboard datasets have been conducted with M. Cronin
(PMEL), D. Rogers (SIO), C. Friehe (URI) as well as other members of the
COARE Working Group on Air‑Sea Fluxes. I expect the collaborations and
friendships developed during COARE to continue and enrich my research
efforts.

The observational period of the ONR Coastal Mixing and Optics (CMO)
program has recently ended. S. Lentz (WHOI), A. Plueddemann, J. Edson
(WHOI) and I placed a moored array on the continental shelf south of
Massachusetts in the Mid‑Atlantic Bight from August 1996 until June
1997. The moored array is an extensive component of the program
consisting of five surface moorings and five subsurface moorings. The
goal is to understand the physical processes responsible for the
breakdown of the thermal stratification on the shelf in the fall and the
redevelopment of the stratification in spring. My particular interest is
the temporal and spatial variability of the atmospheric forcing and the
local oceanic response to that forcing. I have been in contact with L.
Marone (NWS) and S. Benjamin (FSL) who provided surface flux fields from
the regional numerical weather prediction models being run at the
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The observing
period includes many types storm systems including a hurricane, a strong
northeaster and a mid‑latitude cyclone, each with unique spatial and
temporal variability. I have begun to compare these fields with our in
situ data for validation and expect to use the forcing fields to
characterize the atmospheric forcing on the shelf. The data return from
the moorings was very high and our examination of the oceanographic data
is just beginning. We plan to estimate the heat balance accounting for
both surface and advective fluxes across the moored array and study the
vertical mixing processes. Upon initial examination, the data reveals
clear evidence of active surface and bottom boundary layers.

R. Weller and I have a field program underway to study the air‑sea
interactions and upper ocean response in the eastern tropical Pacific
ocean. This is a pilot study for the NOAA Pan‑American Climate Program
(PACS). The atmosphere and ocean in the eastern tropical Pacific are
characterized by their asymmetry about the equator and strong meridional
gradients. Neither the air‑sea flux fields nor the extent to which the
variability in the atmosphere and the ocean in this region are coupled
are well understood. Yet, atmosphere‑ocean coupling in this region
influences extra‑tropical climate. The sea surface temperature field is
believed to control the strength and location of the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ); and variability in the location in the ITCZ may
in turn influence the location of the jet stream over North America thus
altering the paths of precipitating weather systems. However our
knowledge of the surface fluxes and local air‑sea coupling there is at
present insufficient to support modeling and refinement of hypotheses
about the coupling. Two sites along 125°W, one located in the equatorial
cold tongue region, the other under the ITCZ, are currently being
occupied by air‑sea flux buoys collecting an 18‑month long time series.
These two sites were chosen for their contrasting meteorological and
oceanographic climatologies. Collaborations established with the NWP
community during COARE are continuing with PACS. Real‑time
meteorological data from the buoys is being shared with R. Reynolds and
H. Pan at NCEP and H. Boettger and P. Kalberg at ECMWF. In return, they
are providing model flux fields at the mooring locations for comparison
and validation. Initial results suggest that, like in the warm pool
region, there are large errors in predicting rainfall and surface
shortwave radiation in the cold tongue pointing towards a poor
parameterization of clouds in the models. This experiment will provide
us the opportunity to validate the annual cycle and mean values from
various gridded surface flux fields and climatologies as well as examine
the local mixed layer processes involved in setting the meridional
gradients in SST.

In the past seven years, I have been actively involved in instrument
development. The goal of this involvement has always been to improve our
ability to observe ocean processes and to understand the limitations of
the instrumentation used. Here are three examples. (1) R. Payne and I
developed a calibration procedure for pyrgeometers (long‑wave
radiometers) since we were not satisfied with the calibrations provided
by the manufacturer. This effort continued on to include a redesign of
the pyrgeometer and fabrication of a working prototype that uses no
thermopile thus allowing for easier calibration and better accuracy. (2)
The radiative heating is a major source of errors in marine air
temperature measurements. I have developed a model of this radiative
heating to correct observations and encouraged the use of a fan
aspirator to ventilate air temperature sensors when possible. (3) At
present, our ability to fully visualize, measure, and thus understand
the physical processes active in the upper ocean in three dimensions on
scales from meters to one kilometer is at present very limited. I am
currently working with R. Trask, W. Paul and M. Grosenbaugh (WHOI) to
develop the engineering tools needed to design, build, deploy, and
retrieve a reliable horizontal submerged array. This past summer saw the
successful field deployment and recovery of an instrumented submerged
horizontal mooring which demonstrated the feasibility of using such
moorings for scientific observations. In the future, I expect to
continue my work with engineers here at WHOI to improve meteorological
and oceanographic instrumentation and to develop innovative platforms
for upper ocean observations. In addition, A. J. Williams (WHOI) and I
are organizing the Sixth Current Meter Technology Conference, sponsored
by the IEEE/OES and to be held in March 1999, to facilitate the free
exchange of information on oceanographic instrumentation between
scientists and engineers.

Future Direction:

The measurement of air‑sea fluxes in oceanographic reasearch is often
motivated by upper ocean process studies. Indeed, progress in
understanding upper ocean dynamics during COARE, CMO and PACS depends on
the quality and completeness (i.e., including radiation and
precipitation) of the fluxes. However, these measurements are also of
great instrinisc value for NWP and remote sensing validation studies and
analysis of the atmospheric boundary over the ocean. My interactions
with climatologists and meteorologists have been intellectually
stimulating and I believe I am well positioned to make significant
contributions to further our understanding of air‑sea fluxes in the open
ocean. Two regions where air‑sea fluxes and upper ocean processes are of
particular importance are the eastern tropical Pacific ocean and the
stratus cloud decks region off the coast of Peru and the Asian monsoon
interactions with the Sea of Bengal and South China Sea. These two
regions are of specific interest to me because they have regional
surface mixed layer responses to mechanisms that are still not well
understood: upwelling and entrainment cooling, variation in penetrating
shortwave radiation and fresh water fluxes \>from rainfall and rivers.

Despite continued improvements in the measurement of air‑sea fluxes
\>from buoys, these point measurements do not provide all the
information needed to fully analyze regional upper ocean dynamics and
atmosphere‑ocean coupling. I plan to continue my efforts to employ both
observations and numerical models in studies of the upper ocean. I
expect to expand my three‑dimensional modeling efforts which rely on
gridded surface fluxes derived from regional atmospheric models and
remote sensing to provide realistic spatial forcing fields for the
ocean. Using the point measurements to validate and improve mixing
parameterizations in ocean models and air‑sea flux parameterizations in
atmospheric models is critical to building our confidence in the model
results and advancing our understanding of three dimensional upper ocean
processes.

Recent advances in instrumentation and measurement techniques will allow
for more comprehensive observations in the future. Long term (\>6 month)
measurements of conductivity are now possible from moorings and drifters
which will allow for observations of salinity and density variability
and will remove much of the ambiguity in making just temperature
observations. The improvements in optical sensors will allow for
measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity and attenuation to be easily
integrated with more routine measurements of the surface mixed layer
physical properties. New acoustic current meter technologies will allow
for better observations of near surface velocities. I expect the
innovative observational platforms being developed to study the
horizontal variability in the upper ocean will lead to an improved
understanding of Langmuir circulations, internal gravity waves and
perhaps coastal tidal fronts. I am familiar with and expect to use these
new technologies to make a significant contribution to our understanding
of the mechanisms that are responsible for air‑sea interactions and
mixing in the upper ocean.

Theme 1

Daniel Pabon

Researches on climate variability in Colombia

The climate variability has a strong influence on the environmental and
socioeconomics processes of all countries of the tropical America
region, particularly on Colombia. The analysis of the regional
climatological data allows to identify intraseasonal, interannual and
interdecadal oscillations. The outstanding component of this variability
is the El Niño‑La Niña‑Southern Oscillation (ENLNSO). Therefore almost
all predictions schemes are based on the knowledge of this cycle.
However, there are others components that also have importance and
modulate the effects of ENLNSO. Each of these component of climate
variability has importance for several forms of human activities. For
example, the intraseasonal variations affects the agriculture; the
interdecadal cycles influence the long‑term projects, activities and
infrastructure.

In order to determine the roles that different components of climate
variability are playing in the colombian climate, a project based on the
analysis of climatological data secuences is developing at the
Department of Geography, National University of Colombia. The
exploratory phase of this project showed evidences of both
intraseasonal, quasibienal and decadal oscillations, besides El Niño‑La
Niña‑Southern Oscillation. The goal of this project is to identify
clearly the importance (the magnitude) of each component in the regional
climate variability to improve or build schemes of climate prediction.

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The analysis of the ocean‑atmosphere CO~2~ fluxes over Colombian
maritime areas

The variations of the atmospheric carbon dioxide are currently a subject
of special importance due to the role that this gas is playing in the
global warming. Therefore, now many efforts are oriented to better
understand the carbon cycle, particularly the ocean‑atmosphere phase.

Given the importance for Colombia, the Instituto de Hidrologia,
Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) at the end of 1995 begun the
ocean‑atmosphere CO~2~ fluxes study oriented to obtain knowledge on the
space‑time distribution of the ocean‑atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes
over the colombian maritime areas. Now, in the frame of a project, in
situ measurements are programed. This measurements are oriented to
adjust the empirical relation obtained by different authors to estimate
the fluxes for other regions and to adapt them for the colombian
maritime zones or to build new empirical relations.

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The impacts of climatic change researches in Colombia

A climatic change and its impacts will be noticeable in the near future.
The tropical areas will be also affected. It is necessary to assess the
impacts this climate change will produce in the region. The changes and
impacts will be different for each region. Therefore it will be
necessary to build regional climate change scenarios and regional
impacts assessment.

The Meteorology Posgraduate Programme of the Department of Geosciences
of National University of Colombia is developing a research project
oriented to do a national assessment of the possible impacts of the
climatic change on Colombia. Based on the products of several climate
models, a national scenarios of climate change and an impacts assessment
will be elaborate for the country.

Theme 1

Steve Paton

Response to Theme 1 questions:

\(1\) ENSO. Some evidence of ENSO related fluctuations in tropical
forest seed and fruit production, herbivour mortality and insect
outbreaks.

\(2\) Long and short term fluctuations in yearly rainfall, beginning and
ending of dry and wet seasons, length of dry season, average cloud cover

\(3\) Fluctuations in yearly rainfall

Theme 1

Pedro A. Cardenas

Havana, September 1, 1998

At the present I am working in climate variability related with ENSO and
long‑term forecast for rain and extreme temperatures with some months in
advance. In the two research branches the sea surface temperature
anomalies has been considered as cause of climate anomalies. SSTA has
been used to calculate e new ENSO index and as predictors in
Physical‑Statistical long term forecast models. I am working like
advisor in ENSO impact studies for hydrological management in
electricity generation.

Moreover I has been collaborating with other specialists in the linkage
between nutrient and oceanic‑atmospheric event like ENSO and in the
relationship between meteorological elements and capture of some species
in coastal zone. The obtained result in linkage between nutrient and
oceanic‑atmospheric events may be used for the future establishment of
long term forecast model related with the fisheries.

My research activities are related with Themes 1 and 2. Nevertheless I
consider that some applications like long‑term forecast for rain
starting from an empirical or statistical point of view, will be
interesting for some policy‑making agencies and for scientific
community.

Theme 1

Jose J. Alio

Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology

University of California, Santa Barbara CA 93106, USA

Telf. (805) 893 3998 FAX 893 7427

I am sending here the requested summary of projects currently under
development in my home institution, Venezuelan Ministry of Agriculture,
Fondo Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (FONAIAP). Some of them
also include researchers of other Venezuelan or foreign research
institutions. The projects are listed under the research initiative I
estimated they fit better. Their titles are descriptive, not necessarily
the original ones, and the lists of participants have been abbreviated.
Theme I, Physical interactions of air, sea and land in IAS. R. Guzmán;
A. La Barbera (FONAIAP, Venezuela); A. Quintero; W. Senior (UDO‑IOV,
Venezuela). Study of environmental factors related to changes in
abundance of the sardine, Sardinella aurita, in the Gulf of Cariaco,
eastern Venezuela.

The project deals with the study of historical and current changes in
physical and chemical parameters within the Gulf of Cariaco, and their
relations with observed changes in the planktonic community and one of
its main predators, the population of the sardine, S. aurita. Sardines
currently have annual landings of about 150.000 t, and some decades ago
landings from the Gulf of Cariaco accounted for 40‑60% of the annual
catch. Current landings from the Gulf of Cariaco account for not more
than 5%. A crash in this fishery was observed 30 years ago, but annual
catches kept increasing from fishing performed in the northern sector of
the Araya Peninsula, which separates the Gulf from the Caribbean Sea.
The research group is integrated by physical and chemical
oceanographers, and by phytoplankton and fishery scientists. They
currently have available a set of instruments used in physical and
chemical oceanography, as well as the tools to work on phytoplankton and
fishery evaluations. They could benefit from interactions with other
scientists in the region who are also dealing with changes in abundance
of small pelagic fish as a response to environmental changes, wind in
particular.

Larval recruitment, pathways, adult productivity, biological‑physical
linkages and their influence on IAS fisheries. J.J. Alió; L.A. Marcano;
D.E. Altuve; R. Alvarez (FONAIAP, Venezuela); J. Páez (CENIAI‑CIP,
Cuba); S. Kuruvila; L. Maharaj; L. Ferreira (Fish. Div., Trinidad ‑
Tobago); D. Die (SCIRO, Australia); N. Ehrhard (RSMAS, U‑Miami, USA); K.
Cochrane (FAO‑Rome); T. Phillips (CFRAMP‑CARICOM). Study of the dynamics
of shrimp and bottom fish species in the Atlantic coast of Venezuela and
Trinidad‑Tobago. Venezuela and Trinidad ‑ Tobago support large trawl
fleets which operate in the delta of the Orinoco River and the Gulf of
Paria. The historical information on landings from these fleets, the
data obtained on board, at the landing ports, and at processing plants
of both countries have facilitated the assessment of the major fisheries
in the region. Furthermore, information on catch per unit of effort in
combination with data on changes in certain environmental parameters is
being used to establish models that could explain changes in recruitment
of different species. This project, already of multinational nature, can
benefit from a wider spectrum of researchers since trawl fisheries are
important and wide spread in the region. Its development is actually one
of the best achievements of FAO in the promotion of regional research
teams in fishery science.

J.J. Alió; L.A. Marcano (FONAIAP, Venezuela); F. Arocha (UDO‑IOV,
Venezuela); D. Gaertner (ORSTOM‑France); E. Prince (NMFS‑USA).
Evaluation of artisanal and sport fisheries of billfish and related
species in Venezuela, as a means to assess the population dynamics of
some pelagic fish species in the western Atlantic region. Sport fishing
tournaments in Venezuela have allowed a rare opportunity to accrue for
decades a large amount of information on the abundance and migration of
pelagic fish species of great dimensions. Artisanal and industrial
vessels also capture large pelagic fish in the country. The project
places emphasis on the update of accurate records on catch and fishing
effort, which are used to estimate the dynamic patterns of fish species
abundance within the greater North Atlantic Ocean. This information is
amenable for testing models relating changes in fish abundance to
alterations in regional environmental parameters. Fishery scientist of
different institutions forms the research team.

G. Gómez; L.A. Marcano; R. Guzmán (FONAIAP, Venezuela). Evaluation of
stock and recruitment of the lobster, Panulirus argus (Crustacea,
Decapoda, Palinuridae), and queen conch, Strombus gigas (Mollusca,
Gastropoda) in Archipelago Los Testigos, southern Caribbean Sea. The
spiny lobster and the queen conch are among the most valuable fish
resources exploited by artisanal fishermen in the Caribbean Sea. Heavy
exploitation has led to severe depletion of the stocks in many reef
areas. In spite of special management measures imposed by countries,
recuperation of stocks has not taken place in many areas. The problem is
probably associated to limited recruitment in the leeward side of the
Caribbean Sea. The purpose of the project is to assess the current state
of the stocks of the two species in Archipelago Los Testigos, verifying
the impact of different management measures. The research team is formed
by fishery scientist. There have been major limitations in funding and
vessel availability to pursue this project. Since results can benefit
many other countries in the region that share similar resources, a
cooperative program would be a means to succeed in this type of
projects.

Villasmil, L. (FONAIAP, Venezuela). Assessment of the dynamics of the
populations of Callinectes sapidus and C. maracaiboensis (Crustacea,
Decapoda, Portunidae) in Lake of Maracaibo and Gulf of Venezuela. Lake
Maracaibo and Chesapeake Bay are the biggest brackish water environments
in the western Atlantic Ocean. Both areas harbor important populations
of Callinectes spp. which have been the base of sustained fisheries. The
project has dealt with the study of the dynamics of the portunid crab
species in the Lake. Its results are the base of the management measures
taken by the government in this fishery. The progressive salinization of
the Lake induced by the construction of navigational ways has brought up
problems that could be better addressed through a cooperative research
program.

R. Giménez; A. La Barbera (FONAIAP, Venezuela); A. Quintero (UDO‑IOV,
Venezuela). Assessment of the migratory movement of mussel larvae, Perna
perna and P. viridis, in the northern sector of Paria and Araya
Peninsulas, eastern Venezuela. Populations of the mussels, Perna perna
and P. viridis, are the base of an artisanal fishery in the northern
Sucre State. A heavy exploitation takes place annually in the windward
sector of the mussel distribution (Carupano to Morro de Chacopata, Araya
Peninsula), whereas a minor extraction is performed towards the leeward
side of the distribution (Paria Peninsula). In order to maintain the
mussel resources in the region, it is necessary to estimate the source
of the larvae that repopulate every year the entire area of distribution
of these resources. It is also necessary to understand the interactions
of the mussel larvae, which spend about two weeks in the plankton, with
the wind and marine current in the region. A fishery biologist, a
phytoplankton specialist and a physical oceanographer form the research
team. They have available the basic field and laboratory equipment for
plankton research and one research vessel 18 m long (R/V GOLFO DE
CARIACO).

Theme III. Interconnections and sustainability of coastal environments
and resources.

A. La Barbera; A. Arias de Díaz (FONAIAP, Venezuela). Study of
conditions that limit aquaculture developments in coastal waters of
eastern Venezuela. In spite of its near 40 years\' existence,
aquaculture in eastern Venezuela is still marred by water quality
problems. The project addresses two of the most serious difficulties:
pollution by agriculture related activities and red tides. The
researchers have studies the nature and sources of pollution, and the
identification of organisms causing red tides. They have also evaluated
the role that some environmental parameters could play of the spread of
pollutants in coastal marine environments or in triggering the bloom of
red tide organisms. The project has benefited from the cooperation of
research personnel from the Food and Drug Administration of USA.

Theme 1

Silvia L. Garzoli

NOAA/AOML/PhOD

The IAS theme that best relates to my research interests is Theme 1.
Physical Interactions of Air, Sea and Land in the IAS.

Present Research Interests:

At the present time I am a co‑PI of two Research Projects in the
Tropical Atlantic:

\(1\) Atlantic Circulation and Climate Experiment (ACCE).Bob Molinari
and Silvia L. Garzoli, (co‑PIs).

> The Atlantic Circulation and Climate Experiment (ACCE) is directed at
> increasing our understanding of the interaction between the
> AtlanticOcean and global climate. As part of ACCE, AOML is deploying
> Palace float array in the Tropical Atlantic to provide current vectors
> at the sea surface and 1000 m and temperature profiles every 10 days.
> These data not only will provide a regional perspective to address
> ACCE objectives, but when combined with other floats and observations
> and models, a basin wide perspective will be available. One year of
> observations are already available; it is our intention to re‑deploy
> part of the array during the summer of 1999.

\(2\) The North Brazil Current.

> This program is directed to study the Rings of the North Brazil
> Current and its role in the net warm water transport across the
> equatorial tropical gyre boundary into the North Atlantic and the
> Caribbean Sea. This is a joint program between NOAA/AOML (S.L.
> Garzoli, G. Goni, D. Wilson), RSMAS (B. Johns) WHOI (P.L. Richardson,
> D. Fratantoni) and Brazil (E. Campos, USP).
>
> In addition to these two ongoing program, I am organizing a Meeting
> that will take place tentatively the last week of April 1999 at
> NOAA/AOML. The objective of the meeting is to coordinate efforts to
> develop an Atlantic Observing System that will be a follow up of the
> PIRATA pilot experiment.

Theme 1

Wilton (Tony) Sturges, Fla State Univ.

Dept of Oceanography

\(1\) We\'ve been working for some years on low‑frequency forcing of the
main N. Atlantic subtripical gyre by winds \... to determine the
response of the main thermocline and/or sea level, transport, etc. The
model is extremely simple, and gives results that are remarkably
consistent with all the data we can find: tide gauges, dynamaic heights,
etc. The advantage of our results over much more complicated models is
that we can see exactly what the causative mechanism is, but of course
we get only the low frequency motions ‑‑ periods longer than 3 years ‑‑
and only the part that is wind forced (which is most of the motions
above the main thermocline).

> This should apply to much of the sea level and transport fluctuations
> in the Caribbean although we have done our work so far only down to
> about 18 N. The model is very simple, and uses a decomposition into
> vertical modes. So far it appears that using only the first two modes
> gives us all the info we need. All this work has appeared in J.P.O.
> and can be seen a bit (movie, etc.) at http://atlantic.ocean.fsu.edu

\(2\) I\'ve also been trying to combine existing hydrographic data in
the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to average over the eddy motions and
\"noise\" in order to try to estimate the long‑term \"mean\" flow. The
intent is to try to find whether there is a deep return flow into the
Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico and then on out into the Atlantic.
This is very much a work in progress; it appears on the basis of initial
results that the flow reverses in Yucatan at about 1000 m. But this is a
very preliminary result. The noise in the historical hydro data is
daunting.

\(3\) I\'ve recently completed a draft manuscript of "yet one more try"
at determining the frequency of ring shedding from the Loop Current.
This version has about 50% more information on ring shedding events in
comparison with the 1994 paper in Jour. Phys. Ocean\'y.

\(4\) We have done some work with shallow currents in the northern Gulf
of Mexico. details at http://gulf.ocean.fsu.edu

Theme 1

IASI Research Interests

Chris Mooers, OPEL/RSMAS/UM

\(1\) Understand the mesoscale variability of the Caribbean Sea,
especially the Panama‑Colombian Gyre‑and‑Caribbean Current interaction,
through numerical simulation with IAS‑POM.

\(2\) Explore the nature and extent of the ocean‑atmosphere coupling in
the IAS, on time scale of days to years, using IAS‑POM.

\(3\) Establish the physical transport linkages that are relevant to
fisheries recruitment and marine ecosystem issues; e.g., optimization of
the location of marine vessels, using IAS‑POM; results would be
applicable to ocean pollution, too.

\(4\) Design (through numerical simulation) an optimal observing system
for an IAS‑GOOS, including a judicious mix of satellite remote sensing,
in situ observing systems, etc.

\(5\) Study regional ecosystem dynamics by adding ecosystem model(s) to
IAS‑POM, starting with a NPZD ecosystem model.

\(6\) Conduct model‑model and model‑observation studies in order to
select the modeling attributes needed for the modeling component of
IAS‑GOOS.

Theme 1

Julio Calderon A.

National Coordinator

SDNP‑Panama

e‑mail: jcalderon@sdnp.org.pa

THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT NETWORKING PROGRAMME (SDNP)

SDNP

The Sustainable Development Networking Programme (SDNP) is a catalytic
initiative to impulse electronic networking around the world
‑emphasizing in developing countries‑ and help people share information
and expertise relevant to sustainable development to improve their
lives. Launched in 12 pilot countries in 1992 after the Rio Summit, the
SDNP currently offers assistance in establishing connectivity to
national networks and the Internet, content aggregation and user
training in more than 40 developing nations and 36 small island
developing states (SIDSnet).

One of the objectives of SDNP is to sensitize a wide audience of
stakeholders about the value of information, and about the importance of
an adecuate accesibility. In essence, an SDNP is an entity with
managerial and technical skills, hardware and software, connectivity and
training resources, providing a \"meeting place\" that services the
information needs of all sectors of civil society.

Recently SDNP has been directed to give high priority to creating the
Small Island Developing States Network (SIDSnet). This involves the
creation of a computer server capable of providing internet based
communication tools to a network of the developing island nations.

SDNP can provide assistance to countries and/or institutions in
establishing connectivity to the Internet, efficient use of electronic
communications tools, content provision and agregation, and user
training.

SDNP & IASI

Since SDNP focuses its activities on cross‑cutting issues ‑following the
Capacity 21 guidelines‑, and having in mind that the better way to
encourage and to protect our seas and coastal zones is with a better
understanding of the environmental problems affecting this areas; there
is a great potential to collaborate with IASI and its research
initiatives, offering a plattform to share and exchange scientific
information within the region.

SDNP could assist in the information‑transfer activities, setting
electronic discussion groups for each research project, setting
databases on line, designing and manteinnance of web pages and
fullfilling the IASI information needs.

In the region SDNP have offices in Mexico, Central America and some of
the Caribbean Islands (SIDSNET). Currently SDNP‑Panama ‑which is hosted
by the University of Santa Maria La Antigua‑, have the Regional SDNP
Coordination.

SDNP could help IASI in the information exchange issues that will
contribute to develop a sustainable scientific information infrastucture
for environmental science..

Theme 2

Carlos Garcia‑Saez

I am currently the Director of the Cayos Cochinos Biological Reserve and
the Cayos Cochinos Field Station. It is part of the Bay Islands in
Northern Honduras. My activities range from managing the protected area,
promoting the field station, community development and my own research.

My research interests are: population dynamics and fisheries of reef
organisms and its relationship with conservation strategies and
policies. Currently I am working on the population dynamics and
fisheries of the queen conch (Strombus gigas) and the spiny lobster
(Panulirus argus). My work is related with themes 2 and 3 and the
relationship between the two of them.

Participation on the IASI meeting will be very helpful for my
Institution and for myself. Historically Honduras has had few
interaction with other countries in relation with marine sciences,
therefore developing relations with individuals and institutions as well
as integrating the activities of Cayos Cochinos to the wider Caribbean
context is of foremost importance for the stability and long term
success of the project.

Cayos Cochinos archipelago is a microcosms of the problems that affect
other Caribbean locations with the advantage of having a protected area,
a full equipped field station and a controlled and monitored artisanal
fishery. There is also a NOAA station. All these infrastructure can be
of some use to some of the researchers and Institutions participating in
the IASI meeting.

Theme 2

Jaime Gonzlez‑Cano, Ph. D.

I am interested to participate in the IASI meeting. I am in charge of
the Lobster Project in the Mexican Caribbean for the Center for
Fisheries Research of the National Institute of Fisheries (NIF). This
center is based 30 Km. below Cancun where I conduct all the research
related to this resources on the Quintana Roo Estate coast. Amonsgt
other things, I have to provide technical opinions to the NIF‑SEMARNAP
for the management of this fishery.

On the other hand, in 1995 I worked as advisor for CARICOM Fisheries
Resource Assessment and Management Program (CFRAMP) on lobster fisheries
and biology. I assisted CFRAMP to develop a program of research for
twelve countries in the Caribbean Region.

Since 1996 I have worked as FAO consultant working on Project
GCP/INT/575/DEN for the \"Assessment Workshop on the Spiny Lobster
Panulirus argus Fisheries in the WECAFC Area\". First workshop was held
in Belize City April‑May, 1997. Second workshop took place in Merida,
Yucatan, Mexico, June 1‑12, 1998. In this work I have been working
together with Dr. Nelson Ehrhardt and Dr. Victor Restrepo

In September 1997, I work as Coordinator of the Mexico‑Jamaica
Binational Technical and Scientific Co‑operation Programme. Project
\"Biology and fisheries of the spiny lobster Panulirus argus\": Lobster
casitas Project.

Since May 1998 I am Responsible for the lobster component for Join
Project between Amigos de Sian Ka ´an A.C. & National Institute of
Fisheries \[CRIP‑Puerto Morelos\]. This project will take place in Banco
Chinchorro Atoll an will is sponsored by World Wildlife Foundation
(WWF).

Taking into consideration the above mentioned and with the possibility
of working with several countries within the Wider Caribbean, I see this
meeting as a great opportunity to initiate a collaboration work to
gathering data and to better understanding different processes within
this region. In particular, I am interested in Theme 2, mainly because
it is related to things I am working with. Since we started to organize
first CFRAMP/FAO & DANIDA workshop, we saw the importance of
understanding larval recruitment pathways and linkages of spiny lobsters
(e.g. Panulirus argus). But this is not only important for this species,
there are many species that deserve equal treatment in order to
understand its dynamics and the different fisheries status amongst
different countries.

Benefits:

Better understanding the dynamics of the resources I am working with.

I am discussing the possibility of working with an International
Institution. The work concerns several countries in the Caribbean
Region. The number of species and fishing resource will increase, thus
the IASI meeting will allow me to have a better insight and to be part
of a working team for collaboration in the future.

National Institute of Fisheries Contribution:

In the NIF I am also responsible for the Mexico‑Cuba and Mexico‑Jamaica
Bilaterla Agreements, mainly on Lobster Research. In the Mexico‑Cuba
Lobster Program we will have the 4th Bilateral Workshop. This time it
will take place in Varadero, Cuba (May 1999). It is expected that at
least 11 countries wil be attending this meeting.

First Workshop (Isla Mujeres, Q. Roo. Mexico‑1993) attended only
researchers from Mexico & Cuba. Second Workshop (Havana, Cuba‑1994)
Attended researchers from 13 countries. Third Workshop (Mazatlan, Mexico
‑ 1997) Attended researchers from 5 countries (including Australia and
Canada).

Results from these workshops have given insight for points to be
discussed in workshops like the CFRAMP/FAO&DANIDA. They have also
allowed people to get together and to know each other. Joint papers have
started being produced. This approach has had excellent results. I
believe the IAS meeting might the beginning for something similar, but
at a greater scale, more resources and with an enormous potential.

If at all possible I would like to attend this meeting. I know this
message might be late. However, if it still possible to receive
financial assistance I will be much obliged.

I look forwards to receiving your message

Theme 3

Larry Brand ‑ IASI interests

Current Research Interests:

\(1\) Eutrophication of tropical coastal waters. This work is presently
being carried out in Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, the Florida Keys, the
Ten Thousand Islands area, American Samoa, and the Persian Gulf.

\(2\) Remote sensing of shallow benthic ecosystems to evaluate their
ecological health. This work is presently being carried out in the
Bahamas and Monterey Bay in collaboration with optical scientists using
towed instruments, airborne instruments and satellites.

\(3\) Effects of nutritional and toxic trace metals on phytoplankton
growth. This research has been conducted in the laboratory and on Cape
Cod and in San Diego Bay.

\(4\) The effects of UV radiation on phytoplankton growth. This research
is being conducted in the laboratory.

\(5\) Bioactive compounds such as anti‑cancer compounds from marine
algae. This research has been conducted in the laboratory, in the
Indo‑Pacific, the Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.

My research on the eutrophication of tropical coastal waters would best
fit in with Theme 3 of the Intra‑Americas Sea Science Initiative,
dealing with Interconnections and Sustainability of Coastal Environments
and Resources.

The Intra‑American Sea is tropical and characterized by a permanent
thermocline, which results in low nutrient concentrations in the photic
zone. Therefore the waters are very clear and the dominant ecosystems,
such as coral reefs and seagrass meadows are \"adapted\" to low nutrient
conditions. Such waters and ecosystems are a major tourist attraction
and thus a significant source of foreign exchange currency.
Unfortunately, such oligotrophic ecosystems are extremely sensitive to
nutrient inputs. Relatively small nutrient inputs can cause significant
ecosystem shifts: coral reefs overgrown by macroalgae; seagrasses
overgrown by epiphytic algae; benthic plant communities shaded out and
replaced by phytoplankton blooms and red tides. Native human
populations, tourists, and agriculture are all increasing in the
tropical Americas and all are sources of increasing nutrients that can
make their way into coastal ecosystems. Economic pressures may well
promote a continued increase in tourism and agriculture. If managed
properly, however, this does not necessarily have to lead to an increase
in nutrient inputs to the coastal ecosystems and their subsequent
deterioration. Early warning systems can be put into place to detect the
beginning of eutrophication and nutrient diversion systems can be
developed to prevent the destruction of desirable marine ecosystems such
as coral reefs and seagrass communities.

My research interests are to establish an early warning system
throughout the Intra‑Americas Sea to detect developing eutrophication
before it leads to significant ecosystem damage, and to conduct
comparative studies in different locations to better understand the
pathways of nutrients from land to the sea under different geological
and hydrological conditions and under different land use situations. The
pathways of nutrients from anthropogenic sources to coastal ecosystems
can be complex and not obvious. Different geological structures and
hydrological regimes will generate quite different pathways and flux
rates of nutrients from upstream land sources to downstream coastal
ecosystems. Large scale comparative studies should help us understand
which geological and hydrological settings are most conducive to the
eutrophication of valuable downstream coastal ecosystems. Comparative
studies in a wide variety of ecosystems can help discern general
eutrophication patterns from site‑specific situations. Ultimately,
comparative studies are very useful in providing guidelines for
determining how much terrestrial nutrient runoff can be tolerated before
significant coastal ecosystem ecological deterioration will develop.
Hopefully, comparative studies may also help us understand which land
use policies have a smaller impact on coastal ecosystems and provide
guidelines for future land use policies that maximize human benefits
while minimizing coastal ecosystem impacts.

Theme 3

Beatrice Padovani Ferreira, PhD.

Department of Oceanography

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

I am writing regarding the Intra‑Americas Sea Initiative (IASI) research
planning meeting that will take place October 21‑23, 1998 at the RSMAS
Campus in Miami, Florida, U.S.A.

I have received information about the meeting from colleagues that have
been invited and I have interest in participating, since the meeting
will promote discussion and integration in various areas which are
directly related to the type of work we are developing here in Northeast
Brazil.

Bellow is a summary of my present research interests or activities:

I am a lecturer at the Department of Oceanography, University Federal of
Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil. I got my PhD degree in Australia in
Fisheries Biology and have been back and working in the coral reefs of
the Northeast Brazilian region since 1994. My research interests are
fish communities, artisanal fisheries and management. For the past two
years I have been coordinating the reef fisheries component of the
\"Revizee\" project, a multidisciplinary project which aims to assess
the status of fish and fisheries in the Brazilian EEZ. We have been
working mainly with population biology of snappers, groupers and jacks.

Presently I am involved in the coordination of the fisheries and
biophysical components of a project called \"Integrated Coastal Reef
Management Initiative in Tamandare‑Paripueira, Brazil\" (or \"Coastal
Reefs\" project) ‑ financed by IADB, Technical Cooperation (TC9611080).
The project started in February 1998 and will have the duration of three
years.

The Coastal Reefs project will support the implementation of a local
integrated coastal management initiative for Brazil\'s first coastal
reef protected area (MPA), which was created in October 1997, including
approximately 120 km of coastline between the cities Tamandare to
Paripueira. It extends inland 33 meters above the high tide mark and
about 18 miles offshore to the border of the continental shelf. Although
there are about 3000 km of coastal reefs and associated marine
ecosystems along the Brazilian coast, the only existing marine protected
areas are Abrolhos and Atol das Rocas, both located in distant offshore
areas. The coastal ecosystems between Recife (Pernambuco) and Maceió
(Alagoas) are the highest priority for integrated coastal management for
the Tropical Southwestern Atlantic Region. The relative isolation which
characterized the coral reefs in this area until recently has
contributed to the formation of an endemic marine fauna of international
significance. The long‑term aim of this initiative is to improve the
conservation of coastal/marine biodiversity and the sustainability of
the economic activities that depend on the area\'s coastal resources.

The component which I am more directly involved encompass activities
such as: (a) establishment of monitoring programs for coastal reefs and
adjacent ecosystems (including indicators of rates of change in the
coastal zone); (b) field assessment of artisanal fisheries catches; (c)
status of stocks and population structure of key species; (d)
formulation and implementation of fisheries conservation measures with
the support of local fishers; (e) carrying out applied research directly
related to management needs, including assessing the effects of coastal
infrastructure development on reef health; (f) design and implementation
of short term field experiments of reef resources recovery, to be used
to demonstrate the efficiency of management measures, and the benefits
that they can bring to the local communities; and (g) selection and
introduction of user fees for the MPA.

I think our work can greatly benefit from participating in the IASI, and
for us it will also be an excellent opportunity to discuss aspects of
our work with other researchers and managers.

Also, I checked your list and could not find any representatives from
Brazil, so it would be a good oportunity to integrate.

I am mostly interested in participating of themes 2 and 3. Knowing
larval recruitment pathways and biological/physical linkages on
fisheries is of extreme importance to fisheries conservation measures
such as no‑take zones and in the design and implementation of field
experiments of reef resources recovery. Theme 3 is the core of our
project.

Unfortunately, I received the IASI material only recently, so my
response is a bit late. If you consider that my participation is still
possible, please state this in your response so I can proceed with
travel arrangements with my institution. I have also received what I
believe to be your latest mail, with questions regarding each theme,
which I will reply if you consider my participation appropriated.

Theme 3

Helen Molina

PAST AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES

As member of the Research Center of Marine Science and Limnology (Centro
de Investigaciones en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, CIMAR) of the
University of Costa Rica (UCR), I have conducted research in both the
Eastern Tropical Pacific and the Caribbean coasts. The projects have
related to:

\(1\) Experimental freshwater fish (Oreochromis aureus, Tilapia áurea)
culture in floating pens, with the corresponding technological package
development and transfer to rural communities.

\(2\) Ichthyoplankton studies (with taxonomic and ecological approaches)
of the larval assemblages in coastal waters (estuarine environments like
Nicoya Gulf and Golfo Dulce on the Pacific; open coastal waters and
reef‑associated areas in Puerto Limón, on the Caribbean , as well as
oceanic ichthyoplankton from Cocos Island, Eastern Tropical Pacific).

\(3\) Fish endoparasite biosystematics on stingrays (Himantura,
Urolophus, etc.), Pacific coast.

\(4\) Preliminary, small‑scale behavioral studies of coral reef fish
(Pomacentridae), Caribbean coast.

\(5\) Management plan development of several National Parks of Costa
Rica, in both terrestrial and marine environments.

\(6\) UCR is setting up a regional M.S. program in Integrated Tropical
Coastal Zone Management (Programa de Maestría en Gestión Integral de
Areas Costeras Tropicales, GIAC). In this project, other universities
from Europe (La Rochelle, France; Bremen, Germany, Basque Country,
Spain) as well as Latin America (Univ. Autónoma Santo Domingo, Dominican
Republic; Oriente, Venezuela; CIBNOR, Mexico) are also participating.
CIMAR will be the academic unit in charge of this M.S. program.

I am currently working on my Ph.D. at RSMAS, University of Miami. My
dissertation will deal with holistic approaches to trophodynamic
relations of herbivores in a coral reef ecosystem, and their
mathematical modeling for managerial purposes. I am part of Dr. Jerry
Ault\'s workgroup at the Fisheries section of the Marine Biology &
Fisheries Division of RSMAS.

I\'d also like to provide a small example of land use planning:

Isla Nublar is an oceanic island of 24 Km2, and it\'s surrounded by
coral reefs. It\'s the only site that provides freshwater in 200
nautical miles on any direction.

Last century, pirates introduced pigs, goats and deer to have protein
sources during their stays in Isla Nublar. Nowadays, although goats and
deer are gone, the feral pig population is estimated in some 2,000 pigs.
They dig roots out, then all this soil washes down with the copious
rainfall, and it is starting to cover the reefs. Besides this, it is
considered a treasure‑hunter bounty.

Provided that anthropogenic runoff is negligible in this island, and
that so far, there is no REAL evidence that any pirate treasure has ever
been found, what measures could be taken? Is declaring Isla Nublar a
National Park (or any other form of protection category) the best
solution? What information is needed to make this decision?

Theme 3

Research Interests in the IASI

Peter K. Swart, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Richard E. Dodge, Nova Southeastern Institute of Oceanography

Note to Organizers: Since I will be away for the IASI meeting I suggest
that you invite Richard Dodge of Nova Southeastern to discus and present
ideas presented in this memo.

We are interested in the construction of the paleo‑circulation and
climatology of the Inter‑American Sea using proxy indicators of climate
as found in scleractinian corals and sclerosponges. The Inter‑American
seas is a critical indicator of oceanographic and climatological
processes which take place in the North and South Atlantic. Empirical
studies have already demonstrated the interrelationship of various
regional climate systems to sea surface temperature (SST) variability in
the Atlantic . These include the rainfall in the northeast region of
Brazil and northwest Africa . Variations in the interannual‑to‑decadal
climate variability have been suggested to be dominated by a (1) dipole
pattern in SST between the northern and southern tropics, across the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and (2) an El Nino‑like
variability. The indices formed by averaging SSTA over these rectangles
are referred to as NATL and SATL, respectively. Anomalous heating in
either region alone is associated with a movement of the ITCZ in that
direction and influences ITCZ related rainfall accordingly. During times
when the two indices are of opposite sign, the tropical Atlantic is said
to be in an antisymmetric, or \"dipole\" configuration, and the climatic
effects on nearby land regions are most highly punctuated. The
difference between these indices (NATL minus SATL) is itself an index of
dipole intensity. Whether dipole configurations occur randomly or in
response to some systematic large scale interaction, is not well
understood. They tend to be infrequent and statistically insignificant
at periodicities of less than about 7 years (the anticorrelation between
them is marginal), though when they occur their climate impact is
impressive. The two modes while being uncorrelated at zero lags do show
significant correlation at large lags, consistent with indications that
a dipole relationship exists at decadal and longer time scales. The SATL
mode is located south of the ITCZ centered on the Gulf of Guinea
southward though a region off the coast of Namibia. It is characterized
by higher than normal temperatures in these regions coupled with
intensified trade winds between 10 and 30 N. In contrast the NATL mode
is dominant in the central and eastern Atlantic and extends all the way
across the Atlantic to Central America during January, February and
March of each year. This mode is associated with a reduction in the
dominantly easterly trades in the northern hemisphere, in turn producing
an increase in the surface heat flux into the oceans and a reduction in
evaporation. The concurrence of SST anomalies with surface wind changes
in the western equatorial Atlantic produces a positive feedback similar
to that proposed for the Pacific ENSO.

There are many models which have been developed to explain temperature
anomalies, wind‑ stress, and resultant ocean circulation patterns. In
the following section we discuss one such model, proposed by. It is not
the only explanation, but it serves to illustrate the possible
connections and demonstrate how valuable the collection of the proposed
data would be to constrain this and other models. This model suggests
that a warm temperature anomaly between 10 and 30oN would result in an
increased northerly transport of colder water from the south,
particularly the western boundary currents, such as the North and South
Brazil currents. Horizontal advection of heat will therefore act against
atmospheric warming in the north and cooling in the south. In addition,
atmospheric radiative and turbulent energy fluxes would damp out SST
anomalies providing negative feedback. As these feedbacks balance each
other, a self sustained oscillation would be established.

If this model of temperature feedback and oscillation is correct, then
variations in the SATL and NATL modes would have significant impact on
the source and nature of the water entering the Caribbean through the
Lesser Antilles area. First, during periods increased SATL (warm
temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea) temperature phenomenon, the easterly
trades would be intensified causing an increase in the importance of the
sub‑tropical equatorial gyre and an increase in salinity in the north of
the Lesser Antilles area. Increased north‑to‑south transport would have
the affect of further reducing the influence of the cross equatorial
transport of relatively low salinity water. In contrast, during periods
of increase in NATL, the easterly trades would be reduced, causing a
consequent reduction in the influence of the sub‑tropical gyre on the
salinity of the Caribbean. The northerly transport of colder and less
saline water from the equatorial region would act to reduce the
temperature anomaly in the northern Atlantic.

How can we determine the relationships between NATL, SATL and Caribbean
Circulation

We propose to examine circulation patterns through time using the
skeletons of corals and sclerosponges. Corals and sclerosponges are long
lived organisms which secrete hard calcareous skeletons which frequently
form annual bands consisting of a pair of dense and less dense calcium
carbonate material. These bands can be absolutely dated by simply
counting from the upper growth surface and therefore provide a
chronology within which chemical proxies can be measured. Of particular
interest in this regard is the oxygen isotopic composition of the
skeleton which is a proxy of water temperature and salinity. The
geography of the Caribbean and in particular the Antilles island chain
is particularly well suited to studying long term changes in salinity
and hence relative contributions from sub‑tropical Atlantic Gyre and
cross equatorial transport The Lesser Antilles island chain including
from south to north the islands of Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia,
Martinique, Dominica, Guadalupe, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin and the
Virgin Islands are all surrounded by corals reefs which potentially
sample in the oxygen isotopic composition of their skeletons the
salinity of the waters which pass by the reefs. The critical islands of
Dominica and St. Lucia mark the region of potential separation between
the two competing water masses. Corals from these locations can be
expected to be very sensitive to variations in the contributions from
these two sources. Islands further to the south and north may also be
influenced depending upon the magnitude of changes in the contributions
from the two

sources.

Theme 3

Gloria Batista de Vega

PO BOX 6‑7483 El Dorado, Republic of Panama

PHONE 507‑ 223‑6397 (OFFICE), FAX 507‑223‑6166, HOME 507‑223‑7065

The project that I am including in attachment presents two activities:

\(1\) The Ecosystemology workshops

\(2\) The seaweed farms.

These two action have been possible through the help of many people and
Institutions. These activities are helping us to build a better
understanding among the great diversity of Institutions, communities and
professionals involved in coastal management.

The Ecosystemology workshop show us where our paradigms are and help us
to recognize that we must communicate before taking a decision.

With the seaweed farms. We have taken as a example a common specie of
red algae that has cultural and commercial values for the Caribbean
Region. This algae is also one of the most important commercial specie
for the industries such as food and Biomedicine.

When we are building a seaweed farms we have the opportunity to share
with the fishermen, who are in their daily task in the sea all the
knowledge, discoveries and facts observed in our research and data
finding in our laboratories. But, at the same time the fishermen living
and working on the coast line give us all the first hand information
they extract from their daily activity. They can tell us the changes
observed in the amount of fish available, the erosion of the sand in
islands and points around, the frequency and consequences of floods, the
small but continues changes in sea levels and so on. All information
interchanged this way and evaluated carefully creates the real interest
and appreciation of the cooperation done. When we take decision about
the management of the farm, everybody understand why they are taken and
implemented.

This project included experiences of seaweed farms from Venezuela with
Biotecmar, of Sta.. Lucia with the Caribbean Nature Resources Institute
and of Cuba with the Institute de oceanologia and other Caribbean
countries.

In addition we started in 1996 with German a Caribbean Initiative
Program with the Carl Duisberg Gesellschaft CDG, The Research Center
GKSS and the State Office for Development Cooperation in Bremen, Germany
with the guide of Dr. Hartwig Kremer from CDG now working for LOICZ and
Dr. Wolfgang Rosenthal from GKSS.

At this moment, we are trying with the German Government, to organize a
form of planing and working together with the Caribbean countries
mentioned above and others that will join us in the Future.

With all these activities going on we mus recognize that management of
the Caribbean coast line must be planned together with the countries
surrounding the area.

What we would like to know now, is How could we work together? What can
we benefit from participating in IASI? Of course, we can share with your
groups our experiences of years of research and active work.

On the financial aspects we are expecting to arouse the interest of
people who could invest in our projects.

Expecting to be able to get together and exchange opinions on the
subject, we send you the Summary asked and hope to hear from you soon.

Theme 4 / Theme 1

Doug Wilson

NOAA/AOML

IAS Research Interests

Circulation of the IAS:

IAS current systems and their variability

IAS role in North Atlantic upper ocean heat transport

IAS and climate variability

Present IAS Research Program involvement

Windward Islands Passages Monitoring Program ‑ Regular cruises to
measure water properties and transports between Caribbean and Atlantic.
w/ Bill Johns (UM/RSMAS)

Anegada Climate Tracer Studies ‑ Monitoring the deep Caribbean sill at
Anegada Passage as an indicator of N Atlantic Deep Western Boundary
Current properties and deep exchange with the IAS. w/ Roy Watlington,
UVI

Caribbean Inflow Variability ‑ Monitoring transport through Grenada
Passage via phone cable, pressure/tide gauges, direct measurements ‑ w/
Bill Johns (RSMAS), Agusta Flosadottir (NOAA/PMEL)

NOPP Year of the Ocean IAS Drifters ‑ Surface drifting buoys in the IAS.
w/NOPP, GDC, Kevin Leaman (RSMAS)

IAS of the Intra‑Americas Sea\' WWW site ‑ maintaining an informational
web site with links relevant to oceanography of the IAS.

CANEK ‑ Transport and water mass properties in the Yucatan Straits.
w/CICESE, IdO/Cuba investigators

North Brazil Current Rings Experiment ‑ Observational Studies of
generation and disposition of NBC rings propagating from equatorial
Atlantic towards IAS. w/ B. Johns (RSMAS), S. Garzoli (AOML), P.
Richardson/D. Fratantoni (WHOI)

Florida Straits Cable Measurements ‑ Long‑term monitoring of transport
in Florida Straits (FL‑Bahamas and FL‑Cuba) via telephone cables. w/
Jimmy Larsen, Agusta Flosadottir (NOAA/PMEL)

Florida Bay Circulation and Exchange Studies ‑ Monitoring currents and
temperature/salinity conditions in Florida Bay and the SW Florida Shelf
to study exchange processes between Florida Bay, the Gulf of Mexico, and
the Florida Keys. w/ E. Johns (AOML),

Project Eagle ‑ Oceanographic / Meteorological measurements from IAS
based cruise ships. RSMAS/NOAA/Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines

ULISES joint Cuba‑US‑Mexico cruise to study Yucatan/FL Straits
conditions and upwelling activity. w/ F. Muller‑Karger (USF), Roberto
Perez (IdO, Cuba), E. Santamaria

Theme 4

LIBBY JOHNS ‑ AOML/NOAA

My research interests involve using velocity and hydrographic tracer
observations to examine the circulation of the IAS and its connections
with the subtropical and tropical Atlantic Ocean. I am interested in
variability of the IAS circulation on all time scales from seasonal to
interannual and decadal, in particular with regard to the meteorological
and thermohaline forcing of this variability.

Specific research projects at the present time include quantifying the
mean transport through the passages between the IAS and the Atlantic
Ocean using twelve years of shipboard Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler
(ADCP) data collected during a series of NOAA cruises and examining the
velocity structure within these passages; and examining freshwater
inputs to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Bay and the Florida Keys
and their effect on the regional circulation, using interdisciplinary
shipboard surveys, moored instrumentation and satellite‑tracked drifting
buoys.

Future research plans involving existing data include examining the
water masses of the IAS using hydrographic data collected during NOAA
cruises in conjunction with historical data to delineate flow pathways
with particular regard to quantifying cross‑equatorial exchange with
waters of the southern hemisphere; assembling a comprehensive collection
of IAS hydrographic data and creating a regional climatology; and
examining the interannual variability of the circulation of the IAS with
particular regard to the wind forcing, using the COADS wind data.

I am most interested in Theme 4 of the IASI research initiatives,
developing a regional Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for the IAS.
Observations of many types are needed to monitor the IAS circulation and
contribute to improvement of the numerical models which are likely to be
one of the most important tools in achieving a better understanding of
the interconnected environments of the IAS. I am interested in
participating in new observational programs in the IAS of a variety of
types, strictly physical oceanographic as well as inter‑disciplinary,
and hope that IASI will be helpful in identifying research directions,
collaborations, and funding sources.

One of the particular strengths of my institution, NOAA\'s Atlantic
Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), is in making ocean
observations of many varieties, and continuing these observations over
long enough time periods that they can be used for monitoring ocean
currents. The Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study (STACS) conducted by
NOAA/AOML is an example of this. As a result of this program the Florida
Current is the most well understood current in the world. A similar
observational program in the IAS would be sure to advance the state of
our knowledge of the IAS circulation and its significance to
environmental concerns such as fisheries, pollution and climate.

Theme 4

Tammy Townsend, NRL

NRL effort toward a regional Global Ocean Observing System to study,
monitor, and model the IAS environment.

Modeling:

\- Use 1/16 and 1/32 6‑layer thermodynamic versions of the NRL layered
ocean model covering 30 S‑51 N with the global thermohaline circulation
component included via ports in the northern and southern boundaries
from a global model or specified from observations.

\- A 1/4 degree, 6‑layer thermodynamic global model is already running
in near real‑time forced by FNMOC winds and with assimilation of near
real altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS/2. Upgrade to 1/8 in FY99.
Results can be viewed at fttp://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/altimetry. IAS
subregion available in the near future.

\- Two 1/16 global simulations have been done with the 1979‑1996 ECMWF
winds 6-hourly highest resolution interannual simulations. These also
include the global thermohaline circulation via ports in the northern
boundary.

Atmospheric Forcing:

\- We currently have: FNMOC (90‑97) ECMWF reanalysis/operational
(1979‑present, minus a few months lag) NCEP reanalysis (1958‑1997),
Hellerman‑Rosenstein COADS

\- We plan to do comparisons of simulations run using each of these,
including interannual using the 6‑hourly forcing fields.

\- Data/Analysis

\- Satellite altimetry we are getting in near real time:

\- TOPEX/POSEIDON

\- ERS/2

\- GFO

\- Daily analysis of SSH and SST can be viewed at
http://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/altimetry. IAS subregion available in the
near future.

Data Assimilation:

\- We are doing assimilation of the near real‑time altimetry from
TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS/2 into the 1/4 global model and would plan to use
data from all three altimeters in the 30 S‑51 N Atlantic model.

\- So far we have used nudging for assimilation (Smedstad and Fox, 1994;
JPO) and a statistical inference technique for downward projection of
the data (Hurlburt et al., 1990; JGR‑O).

\- We have also assimilated IR frontal locations using a rubber sheeting
technique (Carnes et al., 1996; in Modern Approaches to Data
Assimilation in Ocean Modeling, Ed. By P. Malanotte‑Rizzoli)

\- We are interested in assimilating data on flow through straits and
passages.

\- We are participants in the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment,
which is to begin in 2003. H. Hurlburt is on both the International and
U.S GODAE Scientific Steering Teams.

Model Evaluation

\- Focus on IAS region and nearby Atlantic regions that would affect the
IAS, such as NBC rings, the NEC and its variability, and the Bahamas
region. Some specific topics:

\- Study how eddies or parts of them pass through straits or influence
the transport through them.

\- Study the connectivity of variability in the IAS region.

\- Study impact of model grid resolution on distribution of flow through
the Caribbean passages and interaction between the Caribbean and
Atlantic, especially the eddy field.

\- Model‑data comparison possibilities:

Realism of simulated eddies

SSH variability and EKE comparisons with altimetry

Transports through passages

Pathways of mean currents

Circulation in subregions

Comparisons with larger‑scale SSH anomalies and their evolution from
satellite altimetry

Comparisons with SSH time series from tide gauges

Model Applications:

\- Boundary input, such as flow through passages, for regional IAS
circulation models and coastal models; input to atmospheric and
bio‑physical models.

\- Provide simulated data for observing system simulation experiments or
to put more limited observations into a larger spatial and temporal
context (e.g. remote vs local forcing of IAS variability on time scales
up to interdecadal). Identical twin simulations can be used to
distinguish between variability that is a deterministic response to
forcing or a non‑deterministic response due to flow instabilities.

\- Provide spun‑up initial states for data assimilation and model
statistics needed for data assimilation.

\- Assess the relative merit of different atmospheric forcing products.

\- Investigate relevant scientific questions such as:

\- The relationship of Caribbean eddies to North Brazil Current
retroflection eddies and Loop Current eddies.

\- IAS current variability.

\- Forcing of the eddy field - local or remote?

\- Sensitivity of the IAS circulation to atmospheric forcing.

\- How are mass, heat, and momentum transported through the Caribbean
island passages?

\- The long‑term relationship between Atlantic and Caribbean sea level
variability.

\- Interannual variability within the IAS.

-Test the efficacy of data assimilation and data impact using perfect
data, especially in constraining unobserved fields.

\- Use unassimilated data to assess the ability of assimilated data to
improve the model\'s accuracy in representing unassimilated quantities
such as transports through passages or subsurface thermal structure.

\- Assess the ability of data assimilative models to track relevant
non‑deterministic variability such as IAS eddies and current meandering,
NBC rings and Atlantic NEC eddies/meanders.

\- Ocean prediction.

\- Search and rescue.

\- Pollution/tracer tracking.

\- Inputs to water quality assessment.

Theme 4

Mitchell A. Roffer

October 19, 1998

Short Summary:

ROFFS has been working with researchers (from RSMAS, NOAA/NMFS/SEFC,
NOAA/AOML New England Aquarium) and the fishing industry on the
influence of the ocean environment on the distribution and catchability
of fish in the waters off South America, Central America, Caribbean Sea
including the Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico (and other ocean areas, e.g.
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean). Real‑time satellite
derived ocean circulation data are used along with ocean buoy data and
ship data to provide tactical and strategic forecasts of the
distribution and relative vulnerability of such fish as tuna, billfish,
sharks, squid, anchovy, sardine, mackerel, and mahi. ROFFS is
particularly interested in Theme II: Larval recruitment pathways and
biological/physical linkages on fisheries; Theme I. Physical
interactions of land, sea and air in the IAS; and Theme IV: An IAS
Regional Ocean Observing System (IAS‑GOOS).

(www.roffs.com).

Theme 4

\"THE FRONTAL ECOSYSTEMS SW OF CUBA, NE YUCATAN AND SE OF FLORIDA:
BASELINE OF THEIR STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS.\"

P.I. of the Project: Roberto Perez, Institute of Oceanology, Cuba.

Participant Countries and Organizations:

Cuba:

Institute of Oceanology (IDO‑CITMA). Ave. 1ra. No. 18406 entre 184 y
186.Flores, Playa, Habana 21, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. C.P. 12100.
TeleFAX :(537) 33‑9112; Phone: (537) 21‑6008; E‑mail:
rperez@oceano.inf.cu

Institute of Meteorology (INSMET‑CITMA). Casablanca, La Habana, Cuba.
Phone: (537) 57‑0721; E‑mail: finubes@met2.met.inf.cu

USA:

University of South Florida (USF), 140 Seventh Avenue South. St.
Petersburg, FL 33701. USA. Phones: (727) 553‑3335, 553‑1186 Fax: (727)
553‑1103 E‑mail: carib@carbon.marine.usf.edu

Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Science. (BLOS), Mc Kown Point, PO Box 475,
West Boothbay Harbor, ME 04575, USA. Phone: (207) 633‑9600

E‑mail: Phinney@alpha1.bigelow.org, cmyentsch@aol.com, csyentsch@aol.com

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML).
NOAA/AOML/PHOD. 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway. Miami, FL 33149. Phone:
(305) 361‑4352 FAX: (305) 361‑4412. E‑mail: WILSON@aoml.noaa.gov

Mexico:

Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (ICIMyL), Universidad
Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria. México 04510, D.F.
Telf.: 622‑5792, Fax: 616‑0748 E‑mail: gallegos@mar.icmyl.unam.mx

Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera (CCA), Universidad Nacional Autónoma
de México, Ciudad Universitaria. México 04510, D.F. Telf. :(52) (5)
622‑4069;

Fax: (52) (5) 616‑0789; E‑mail: marroyo@servidor.unam.mx

Centro de Investigación Científica y Educación Superior de Ensenada. Km.
107 Carretera Tijuana‑Ensenada 22860, Ensenada, Baja California, México.
Telf.: (52‑61) 745050‑53 Fax: (52‑61) 750547 750568 E‑mail:
julios@cicese.mx

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (UABC). Instituto de Ciencias
Oceanológicas. Telf. :(52) (617) 44‑570 ext. 139; Fax: (52) (617)
44‑301; E‑mail: santam@bahia.ens.uabc.mx.

Puerto Rico:

Departamento de Ciencias Marinas. Universidad de Puerto Rico en Mayaguez
(UPR). Mayaguez, Puerto Rico 00681‑9013. Telf.: (787)834‑7620 Ext. 2233.
Fax: (787) 265‑6340 o 5408. Email: gilbes@cacique.upr.clu.edu o
gilbes@rmocfis.upr.clu.edu

OBJECTIVES

General objective:

Establishment of the base lines of the structure and dynamics of the
ecosystems linked to the frontal areas associated to the marine currents
in the Yucatan Channel, the Florida strait and the oriental portion of
the Gulf of Mexico (Loop Current) that facilitates the future detection
of possible regional climatic long period affectations. Should be
reached the following

Specific objectives:

\- To determine the seasonal variations of the volume, heat and
nutrients salts flows through the Yucatan Channel and the Strait of
Florida.

\- To characterize the climatology of the upper layer of the sea of the
frontal areas.

\- To evaluate the influence of the environmental physical processes and
chemical transformations of the upper layer of the sea in the level of
plankton productivity.

\- To evaluate the synthesis of the organic matter, transfer,
mineralizationand export processes.

\- To evaluate the possibility of transport of harmful algae (and
possible red tides) from Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico toward the coast
of Cuba and the USA.

\- To evaluate the role of the plankton in the distribution and
abundance of the fishing resources associated to the frontal areas.

\- To validate the algorithms and satellite data for the Sea Color
sensor (SeaWiFS) and for sea surface temperature sensor (AVHRR) in
oceanic waters and shelf waters of Cuba, Mexico and USA.

\- Exchange of scientific information among Cuba, Mexico and USA on
oceanographic characteristic of waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf of
Mexico that these countries have in common.

SUMMARY

One of the main places in witch the global climatic change variations
occur is the ocean. In this sense the main oceanic currents are called
to play a central role in the displacement of the anomalies that are
heating the planet. The flows of heat associated to these currents play
a decisive role in the formation of the earth climate. However not only
the circulation of

the world ocean will be affected by long term variations, but also the
whole complex of chemical and biological mechanisms to them associates.
A good example of these conglomerates of processes constitutes the
frontal areas. The convergence of waters with different hydrological
characteristic conduct to the formation of an interaction volume among
them, denominated front area, in which the thermodynamic characteristics
and space gradients become maximum and the biological productivity is
strongly increased. Taking into account these considerations, the aims
of the present project is to establish the current state of the
structure and dynamics and the space‑temporal variability of the frontal
ecosystems linked to the currents system of the Yucatan Channel, to
establish the physical and chemical characteristic of this marine
environment, its relationship with the structure and function of the
plankton communities and the paper of these in the formation of fishing
resources and in the ocean‑atmosphere interaction processes. For the
attainment of these objectives are programmed to carry out, during two
years, four oceanographic cruises.

During the cruises will be carried out horizontal continuous
registrations of physical, and biological parameters. In selected
stations, besides vertical continuous registrations of physical,
chemical and biological parameters, will be take discreet samples in the
selected levels, for chemical and biological analysis. Also will be
employed hydroacoustics methods for fish abundance characterization. It
will be used Remote Sensing methods for the observation and synoptic
study of the region in study, before, during and after the cruises.

The results of the project can be useful for oceanographers,
meteorologists and for the fishing industry.

Theme 4

THE CARIBBEAN TIME SERIES (CaTS): A CONTRIBUTION OF THE INTRA‑AMERICAS
SEAS INITIATIVE (IASI) TO A REGIONAL GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM
(GOOS)

Jorge E. Corredor and Julio M. Morell

University of Puerto Rico

Department of Marine Sciences

P.O. Box 908

Lajas, PR 00667‑0908

Deep water formation in the North Atlantic constrains trans‑equatorial
transit of upper water masses. The Intra‑Americas Seas (IAS) region is
the primary site of trans‑equatorial transport thus constituting a key
to the understanding and prediction of global change. Sea surface
warming, carbon cycling, salinity changes and changes in atmospherically
active gas emissions are other regional problems which transcend the
geographic boundaries of this marginal sea. The scientific challenge
these questions pose constitutes a strong argument for the need of a
reliable IAS oceanobservation network to provide the observational
capacity needed for the condensation of multidisciplinary observations
into comprehensive physical/biogeochemical models to provide nowcasting
and forecasting capability. Serial station data provides driving
parameters for validation and observational constraint of operational
models. These constrained models can, moreover, serve in the evaluation
and interpretation of remotely‑sensed synoptic data. Serial data are
also indispensable for the concurrent validation of remotely sensed
ocean parameters and the development of regional algorithms for
parameter estimation. Such an approach can thus enrich the regional
capacity for integral analysis of ocean processes and provide a
framework for upscaling mosaic assemblages to the global scale.

The Department of Marine Sciences of the University of Puerto Rico
maintains a monthly time series at a station denoted Caribbean Time
Series (CaTS) at 17o38\' N 67o W, approximately 26 nautical miles off
the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico. CaTS provides an observing
station for research groups interested in the assessment of the
magnitude and periodicity of basin‑scale phenomena affecting the optics
and biogeochemistry of regional waters. Our research is particularly
geared towards the characterization and understanding of seasonal and
inter‑annual variability of near‑surface seawater features in the NE
Caribbean Basin as affected by seasonal riverine intrusions and by
anthropogenicaly driven global change. The Department of Marine Sciences
is a participant of the Tropical Center for Earth and Space Studies
which operates a high‑resolution picture transmission antena located in
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico now receiving daily SeaWiFS and AVHRR satellite
data and which will shortly have the capacity for receiving SAR and
LANDSAT 7 data. Data from CaTS are routinely used for image calibration
and algorithm development.

In the eastern Caribbean Sea, Orinoco River effluents are detected
seasonally as far north as Puerto Rico and have been shown to
significantly augment surface phytoplankton biomass. Through the CaTS
effort, we are characterizing temporal and spatial variations in the
composition, productivity and respiration of planktonic communities,
ocean color and basic physical and chemical variations as influenced by
riverine flux. Data obtained at sea is being correlated to
satellite‑based ocean color imagery from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor.
These studies are expected to result in a cost‑effective means for
synpotic, real‑time assessment of basin‑scale riverine effects through
satellite observations of ocean color. One of our principal goals is the
development of a regional SeaWiFS algorithm which can allow for
discrimination of the chlorophyll a signal from that of colored
dissolved organic matter present in the river plume.

Work at CaTS indicates that the Inter‑American Seas (IAS) may constitute
a significant source of atmospherically active gases and that
anthropogenic influence can be expected to enhance these fluxes through
various pathways. We expect that, through the Intra‑Americas Seas
Initiative (IASI), these observations may be expanded in both space and
time and that a clearer picture of the IAS contribution to atmospheric
forcing may emerge.

Another issue where CaTS may provide significant input of regional
pertinence is that of the response of long‑lived planktonic larvae (such
as the spiny lobster phyllosoma) and of pelagic fish larvae (e.g.
dolphin, marlin, swordfish, tuna) to basin‑scale phenomena such as river
plumes and El Niño‑driven changes in circulation and upper water column
properties.

In collaboration with scientists from the region we are developing an
observational program directed towards understanding the driving
functions affecting distribution and dispersal of these organisms.

Under the sponsorship of IASI, we propose that CaTS be integrated as a
cornerstone of the planned IAS/IOCARIBE regional comopnent of the Global
Ocean Observing System. CaTS will not only provide a continuous
time‑series for ocean observation in the region, but will also provide a
research platform for marine researchers from throughout the region.
Ideally, a network of such serial observing stations may, in the future
be emplaced in the region. Our experience in the implementation of the
CaTS station can serve as a guide to other groups. UPR is prepared to
share this expertise and we expect that the \"critical mass\" effect
obtained with the implementation of additional time series stations will
result in a better understanding of IAS dynamics and more robust
forecasting capability.

Theme 4

Dr. Rodolfo Claro Madruga

Instituto de Oceanolog‑a, CITMA

1ra. No 18406. Playa. Ciudad Habana.

Cuba

Fax: (537) 33 9497

e‑mail: rclaro@oceano.inf.cu

The IASI Organizing Committee

Thanks for your invitation to participate in the IASI research planning
meeting. I will be very glad to join you in this effort. In accordance
to your request, I\'m enclosing a brief summary of my present research
activities.

Specialization: Ichthyology, Marine Ecology, Marine Conservation. (Ph.D.
in 1976).

Actual research activities:

I\'m involving in the scientific direction of the following
multidisciplinary research projects of the Institute of Oceanology:

\- Fish biodiversity and management of the Ichthyofauna of the
Archipelago Sabana‑Camaguey for the sustainable use of this resources
for fisheries, tourism and conservation.

\- Integrated management of the Gulf of Batabano.

\- A multidisciplinary research program for rational management of
coastal development, fisheries and tourism.

\- A review on Cuban Marine biodiversity: actual status, and
perspectives for a national strategy for sustainable use.

\- My personal work is oriented mainly to fisheries ecology, fish
community structure, recruitment and transport of important species
during their developmental stages to coastal environments and its
relation with fisheries productivity and reef preservation. Theme 2,
better relates with my personal interest. I\'m sure the experiences of
other participants in the meeting will benefit the orientation of my
work, will facilitate the establishment of new linkages and maybe its an
opportunity to stablish collaborative work with other collages and
institutions.

I think that IASI program could be more interesting for me, and possibly
for other participants, if at list theme 2 is oriented to the integrated
management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean.

Theme 4

Ivan Victoria.

Cuba

During the last years, I have been linked to regional oceanographic
research in the Western Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In
particular, I\'ve participated in studies on the physical manifestations
of the frontal zones associated with the Loop Current. These
manifestations are apparently related to the seasonal variations of the
dynamic conditions of the Intra Americas Sea (IAS). Some of the obtained
results show that during the warm half of the year, which coincides with
the period of greater intensity of the superficial circulation in the
Caribbean Sea, the thermal gradients associated with the path of the
Loop Current are sensibly reinforced . This could be a consequence of
dynamic fluctuations in the current system with respect to the
geostrophic balance condition. The high thermal gradient bands are
frequently associated with vertical water movements that contribute to
the increase of biogenic material concentrations in the surface layers.
On the other hand, it contributes to the export, toward lower strata, of
the results of the vital activity of organisms in the upper ocean. An
example that illustrates this well, is the quasiestationary frontal zone
located off the northeastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula. In that
zone, there have been observed areas with high horizontal temperature
gradients, that coincide with more or less marked vertical movements
evidenced in the distribution of the density field. These dynamic
conditions make possible massive blooms of planktonic organisms, which
can result even in red tides. Such was the case of the red tide occurred
in this zone during the summer of 1994. At present this type of study is
being extended to all the periphery of the Loop Current. There exists a
project financed by the National Program of Global Changes of Cuba
devoted to the study of these phenomena. Moreover we count, on the
interest and disposition of many scientists of the IAS, fundamentally of
Mexico and the United States to collaborate in this mission. Another
field of my interest is the study of the circulation in the Yucatan
Channel and the relationship of its variability with climatological
events of long temporal scale in the North Atlantic.

The Yucatan Current is an important element within the current system of
the north Atlantic Ocean. It is estimated that about 30 million of cubic
meters by second circulate through the Florida Strait (at 24 N) . Nearly
all this flow arrives to this point after crossing the Yucatan Strait.
During the last years the magnitude and variability of transports
through the straits among the Smaller Antilles has been studied more or
less intensively . However the passages and straits located to the west
of the IAS have not enjoyed equal attention.

The Windward Passage, for example, is a very important element in the
exchange mechanism between the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea. The depth of its sill allows the entrance of all the water masses
present in the Caribbean. Of all of them, the Subtropical Underwater
(SUW) enters IAS mainly through this passage. However, systematical
studies in that zone, with long term measurement programs have not been
accomplished . Fortunately, the Yucatan Strait is being systematically
studied. The project CANEK, headed by the Physical Oceanography
Department of CICESE, Mexico with the participation of the Institute of
Oceanology, Havana, Cuba, has covered, in some measure, the needs in
that respect. In this measurement program, a great amount of valuable
information is being gathered, thanks to the use of autonomous current
meter arrays anchored in the strait and furthermore to oceanographic
expeditions that are accomplished systematically. My specific activity
within this program has been directed to the study of the water masses,
their characteristics and origin and to estimate the intensity with
which each them is transported toward the Gulf of Mexico. The existence
of southward flows (toward the Caribbean Sea) over the Yucatan Strait\'s
sill has been known for a long time. As a possible cause of this fact is
pointed the difference of sill depths between this strait and that of
the Florida. Nevertheless after two expeditions of the CANEK project
evidences, have been obtained of the fact that the southward flows in
the depths of the Yucatan Strait (temperatures about 5 C) are much more
important than we knew up to know. This water is not formed in the Gulf
of Mexico, nor penetrate to him through the Florida Strait (Havana ‑ Key
West). Therefore, in order to conserve the water balance of the basin it
is necessary that these flows are compensated by equivalent ones of
inverse direction, with which those should alternate. The temporary
scale of these cycles must be sufficiently small in order not to produce
important oscillations in the water balance of the Gulf of Mexico. The
volume of information gathered until this moment does not allows us to
formulate definitive conclusions. It rather advises to maintain this
type of programs and, if possible, to extend it to the neighboring
Florida Strait and Windward Passage. The circulation in the Yucatan
Strait is not complicated only on the deep levels. Also in the
subsurface and intermediate strata, more or less complex exchange
mechanisms are present that involve the Subtropical Underwater as well
as the North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) and the Intermediate
Subantarctic Intermediate Water (AIW). There already exists quantitative
estimates of the exchange amount at these levels. Nevertheless, they are
far away of being definitive due to several factors. Among them appear
the seasonal variability, that has not been covered thoroughly with
extensive CTD/ADCP measurements. Another essential element is the form
in which the Yucatan Current interacts with the Gulf of Mexico
circulation, mainly through process of eddy shedding from the Loop
Current. The modest experiences acquired in these investigations point
toward an acute need of increasing the volume of useful information to
be used in studies of oceanic climatic variability. If seen through a
cooperative point of view, this can be achieved without large money
expenses. For this, it is necessary to create a regional coordinating
structure that would have three basic tasks:

‑To gather useful and available information generated in the area.

‑ To make it available to the oceanographic community on an accepted
basis and

‑ To contribute to the increase in the quality of the new obtained data
in the region, through technical and logistical assistance. In this
sense there exist some experiences put in practice, among others, by
colleagues from AOML/NOAA and in perspectives to be accomplished by
colleagues from USF, the UPR, the BLOS and others .

An example of regional oceanographic collaboration may be the
multinational expedition proposed to be developed in next October aboard
of the Cuban R/V ULISES. The participation of scientists from Mexico,
Puerto Rico, United States, Canada and Cuba is expected in this cruise.