Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 1/28/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** ID4003

ID4003

**Indonesia**

**Poultry and Products**

**Avian Influenza (AI) Outbreak**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Anita Katial-Zemany

U.S. Embassy, Indonesia

**Prepared by:**

Anita Katial-Zemany, Fahwani Y. Rangkuti, Rosida Nababan

**Report Highlights:**

On January 25, 2004, the Government Of Indonesia/Ministry of Agriculture
(GOI/MOA) announced an outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) in Indonesia.
The MOA reported that approximately 4.7 million poultry birds have died
as a result since August 2003. The MOA for now has the lead on
monitoring and eradicating the disease.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Jakarta \[ID1\]

\[ID\]

**Situation**

According to the Government of Indonesia, Ministry of Agriculture
(GOI/MOA) press release dated January 25, 2004, approximately 4.7
million poultry died since end of August 2003, in Indonesia. Among
effected areas are Southern Sumatra, Java, Bali and Kalimantan. In
October 2003, GOI teams investigated the cause of the outbreak and
concluded that the culprits were Newcastle's disease velogenic
viscerotropic virus and another unknown virus. The GOI subsequently
performed a test with anti-serum from Holland of the unknown virus and
determined that the unknown disease was the Avian Influenza (AI) virus.
To further verify the results of the initial test, the GOI plans to
perform a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) test from anti-serum
from the UK and Australia. According to the GOI, the results of this
test are expected next week and will also be passed on to the Office of
International Epizootics (OIE), and international organization based in
Paris. However, the GOI has not recommended directives eradication of
chickens in the affected poultry farms. In addition, the Ministry of
Health (MOH) issued a press release describing the nature of the
disease, claiming that so far there have not been any human infections.
Furthermore, the MOH urged poultry handlers to take extra precautionary
measures.

The OIE works in close collaboration with the World Health Organization
(WHO). A joint WHO/OIE/FAO Delegation of scientists and risk managers
will soon be conducting consultations and investigations in countries in
Asia, starting with Vietnam. To date, the OIE has not put out any
information on the AI outbreak in Indonesia.

### Production

According to Statistical Book on Livestock 2003, the total of Indonesian
poultry meat production (including broiler, native chickens, layers and
ducks) in 2003 was estimated at 1.2 million MT, valued at \$1.5 billion.
The poultry meat identified as being infected by AI, excluded broiler
meat, was about 383,500 MT and valued at approximately \$465 million.

Most of the poultry production (90 percent) is still carried out through
contract or partnership projects with the large integrated poultry
industries. Poultry farmers depend on those industries for DOC supply,
feed and other necessary inputs.

## Prices

Due to the deaths of millions of chicken, there is a tendency that the
price of poultry meat and eggs will increase due to lack of supply.
According to Market Information Center, Ministry of Industry and Trade,
after the government announcement, traditional market prices for eggs in
Jakarta have already increased slightly from Rp. 7,100 to Rp. 7,460/kg
(5%), (from January 19 to January 27, 2004). Meanwhile, the price for
broilers meat increased from Rp 12,300 to Rp. 12,400/kg during that
period.

## Trade

To date, the GOI claims that the broiler meat sector is not affected. In
2002, Indonesian poultry exports to Japan (the largest export market for
Indonesian poultry) totaled \$4.8 million. As of January 26, 2004,
Japan, followed by Taiwan suspended imports of poultry from Indonesia.

Meanwhile, the GOI has imposed a temporary ban on poultry products from
affected AI countries \-- South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and Thailand.

Under normal circumstances the AI outbreak in Indonesia, would be an
opportunity for U.S. poultry export. However, the GOI's ban on U.S.
poultry part imports (implemented in September 2000) remains in effect.

Indonesia' Feed Millers Association and Indonesia's Poultry Farmer
Association predict that the layer and broiler population will decrease
due to farmer and consumer concern about the outbreak. It is not yet
clear as to the impact this outbreak will have on Indonesia's poultry
production, as the GOI is not requiring infected chickens to be
eradicated (as the actions of other ASEAN countries affected with AI).
Other consideration that the industries are facing also is the
increasing of production cost due to the decreasing stocks of day old
chicks (DOC) and increasing feed price and the farm maintenance
(vaccine, sanitation, etc) costs. Post expects to have more detailed
information from poultry producers shortly. Luckily, even though the GOI
recently announced the AI outbreak, some integrated poultry industries
and independent farmers already took preventive measures by using
imported AI vaccines.

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