**ALL ORANGES REDUCED TO 162.0 MILLION BOXES**

The Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural
Statistics Board is 162.0 million boxes, down 3.0 million boxes from
last month. The decrease is entirely in the early-midseason-Navel
(including Temples) portion of the crop now forecast at 84.0 million
boxes. The Valencia portion is unchanged at 78.0 million boxes. If
realized, this forecast would be five percent less than last season's
harvest but 26 percent more than the 2006-07 production. In the past
eight non-hurricane seasons, the January forecast has differed from
actual production by an average of 3.4 percent, with five forecasts
higher and three lower. Estimated utilization to January 1 is 34.0.
million boxes, compared to 29.2 million boxes actual utilization the
same time last season.

**EARLY-MIDSEASON-NAVELS NOW 84.0 MILLION BOXES**

The forecast of early-midseason-Navel oranges (including Temples) is
lowered from 87.0 million boxes to 84.0 million boxes. If realized, the
forecast will be less than one percent greater than last season's actual
production and the most harvested since 2003‑04. The route survey
conducted December 29-30, 2008 showed 32 percent of the rows harvested,
below the average of the past 10 seasons. Objective survey measurements
taken in December are the final components used in the forecast model.
The fruit size projected earlier in the season to be near, but below
average, was not attained. The smaller size requires an additional eight
pieces of fruit to fill a 90‑pound equivalent box. Droppage continued at
an above average rate and the projected final droppage is slightly above
the previous projection.

Navels account for 3.0 million boxes of the category, down from 3.1
million boxes from last month, based upon the current utilization and
results of the route survey. About 84 percent of the rows are harvested,
which is considerably higher than the average of the previous 10
seasons.

**VALENCIAS STAY AT 78.0 MILLION BOXES**

The Valencia forecast remains at 78.0 million boxes. Objective survey
measurements resulted in slight, offsetting changes in the projections
due to a slower growth rate and lighter droppage. Current fruit size and
the final projection are below average. Compared to the previous
projection, it will take an additional three pieces of fruit to fill a
90‑pound equivalent box. Current drop and the final projection are below
average. Very limited harvest has begun.

**FCOJ YIELD 1.62 GALLONS PER BOX**

The FCOJ all orange yield projection is raised from 1.58 to 1.62 gallons
per box. Initial component projections are 1.58 gallons per box for the
early-midseason category and 1.66 gallons per box for the late fruit.
Last season, the all orange yield was a record high 1.672737 gallons per
box as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus.

**GRAPEFRUIT CONTINUED AT 23.0 MILLION BOXES**

The Florida forecast of grapefruit for utilization (including an
allocation of 700,000 boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is unchanged
at 23.0 million boxes. Making up the forecast are 7.0 million boxes of
white and 16.0 million boxes of colored grapefruit. If realized, this
forecast will be 14 percent less than last season's 26.6 million box
utilization.

The principal grapefruit growing regions have experienced dry weather
and warm temperatures since early December. Growers have irrigated
regularly in order to keep both the trees and the fruit in good
condition. A short cold snap during the third week of November was
beneficial to the color and the overall quality of the fruit.

The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in December are the
primary indicators used in setting this month's forecast. Fruit sizes
for **white** grapefruit are projected to be larger than average at
harvest. The expected number of fruit required to fill a 1-3/5 bushel
box is now at 86 pieces. Projected droppage, at 11 percent, remains
unchanged from the October forecast. Almost two‑thirds of the white
grapefruit has been processed this season. Estimated utilization to
January 1 is 1.1 million boxes, compared to actual utilization of 1.3
million boxes at the same time last season.

Projected average size of **colored** grapefruit has increased and is
slightly larger than the adopted size used in the October forecast. It
is anticipated it will take 95 pieces of fruit to fill a 1-3/5 bushel
box. The projected drop rate, at 12 percent, is unchanged from the
initial October forecast. Colored grapefruit have been of excellent
quality this year, and to this point in time about two‑thirds of the
colored grapefruit has gone fresh. Estimated utilization to January 1 is
4.5 million boxes, compared to 4.2 million boxes actually utilized the
same time last year.

**ALL TANGERINES UNCHANGED AT**

**4.9 MILLION BOXES**

The forecast of all tangerines remains at 4.9 million boxes. The total
consists of the early varieties (**Fallglo and Sunburst**) at 2.9
million boxes and the later maturing **Honey** tangerine at 2.0 million
boxes. The early varieties of tangerines are nearly 80 percent
harvested.

Utilization for early tangerines is unchanged from the initial October
forecast. The **Fallglo** harvest is complete for the season at 615,000
boxes, and the **Sunburst** tangerine estimated harvest as of January 1
is 1,694,000 boxes.

**Honey** tangerines account for 41 percent of the total tangerine
forecast and remain unchanged at 2.0 million boxes. Harvesting of Honeys
is just beginning, and is expected to continue into late May or early
June. The size and drop surveys conducted in December are the main
indicators used in setting the January forecast. While Honey sizes are
running below average, droppage was slightly above average. It will take
approximately 253 pieces of fruit to fill a 1-3/5 bushel box.

**TANGELOS STAY AT 1.5 MILLION BOXES**

The **tangelo** forecast remains unchanged and is equal to the initial
October forecast of 1.5 million boxes (including an allocation of
non-certified use of 100,000 boxes). The Row Count survey, conducted
December 29-30, 2008, showed approximately 33 percent of the rows
harvested, which compared to utilization supports the current forecast.
Estimated utilization to the first of the month is 519,000 boxes, or the
equivalent of 35 percent of the forecast total. The size and drop survey
data for tangelos was final in November. It will require approximately
234 pieces of fruit to fill one 90-pound equivalent box of tangelos.

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 16%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><p><strong><span class="smallcaps">Unadjusted Maturity
Tests</span></strong>: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample</p>
<p>groves, 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td rowspan="2"><p>Fruit type</p>
<p>(No. groves)</p>
<p>test date</p></td>
<td colspan="2">Acid</td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Solids</p>
<p>(Brix)</p></td>
<td colspan="2">Ratio</td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Unfinished juice</p>
<p>per box</p></td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Solids</p>
<p>per box</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>2008-09</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>2008-09</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>2008-09</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>2008-09</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>2008-09</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td rowspan="2"> </td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Percent</em></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Percent</em></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Pounds</em></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Pounds</em></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><em>Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not
comparable to plant test results.</em></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="11"><strong><span
class="smallcaps">Oranges</span></strong>:</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Early (75-78)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.78</td>
<td>1.46</td>
<td>9.42</td>
<td>9.23</td>
<td>5.43</td>
<td>6.43</td>
<td>41.34</td>
<td>46.58</td>
<td>3.89</td>
<td>4.30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.28</td>
<td>1.09</td>
<td>10.27</td>
<td>9.61</td>
<td>8.17</td>
<td>8.97</td>
<td>45.88</td>
<td>48.58</td>
<td>4.71</td>
<td>4.66</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Nov 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>0.90</td>
<td>0.84</td>
<td>10.16</td>
<td>10.18</td>
<td>11.51</td>
<td>12.37</td>
<td>51.01</td>
<td>53.31</td>
<td>5.18</td>
<td>5.42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Dec 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>0.84</td>
<td>0.80</td>
<td>10.90</td>
<td>11.09</td>
<td>13.19</td>
<td>14.02</td>
<td>52.09</td>
<td>52.25</td>
<td>5.67</td>
<td>5.79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Jan 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>0.75</td>
<td>0.78</td>
<td>11.79</td>
<td>11.82</td>
<td>15.96</td>
<td>15.47</td>
<td>51.02</td>
<td>51.83</td>
<td>6.01</td>
<td>6.13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Midseason (49-41)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>2.01</td>
<td>1.67</td>
<td>9.63</td>
<td>8.99</td>
<td>4.87</td>
<td>5.45</td>
<td>41.64</td>
<td>44.30</td>
<td>4.01</td>
<td>3.98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.51</td>
<td>1.31</td>
<td>9.60</td>
<td>9.38</td>
<td>6.48</td>
<td>7.37</td>
<td>46.14</td>
<td>50.01</td>
<td>4.43</td>
<td>4.69</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Nov 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.01</td>
<td>0.90</td>
<td>10.32</td>
<td>10.17</td>
<td>10.43</td>
<td>11.49</td>
<td>51.14</td>
<td>54.27</td>
<td>5.28</td>
<td>5.52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Dec 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>11.22</td>
<td>11.14</td>
<td>11.74</td>
<td>12.82</td>
<td>50.59</td>
<td>53.29</td>
<td>5.67</td>
<td>5.93</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Jan 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>0.87</td>
<td>0.87</td>
<td>12.29</td>
<td>11.81</td>
<td>14.55</td>
<td>13.82</td>
<td>52.06</td>
<td>52.02</td>
<td>6.40</td>
<td>6.15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Late (149-150)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>2.62</td>
<td>2.48</td>
<td>9.47</td>
<td>8.86</td>
<td>3.66</td>
<td>3.62</td>
<td>43.86</td>
<td>47.40</td>
<td>4.15</td>
<td>4.20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Nov 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.95</td>
<td>1.86</td>
<td>9.27</td>
<td>9.30</td>
<td>4.82</td>
<td>5.07</td>
<td>48.85</td>
<td>51.82</td>
<td>4.53</td>
<td>4.82</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Dec 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.70</td>
<td>1.61</td>
<td>10.11</td>
<td>10.19</td>
<td>6.02</td>
<td>6.40</td>
<td>52.22</td>
<td>54.06</td>
<td>5.28</td>
<td>5.51</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Jan 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>1.39</td>
<td>11.14</td>
<td>11.14</td>
<td>8.27</td>
<td>8.12</td>
<td>53.58</td>
<td>55.76</td>
<td>5.97</td>
<td>6.21</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11">NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine
using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short
strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also
identical to past tests and no restrictors are used.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| **[Maturity    |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| test averages  |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| by areas,      |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| January 1,     |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| 2009]          |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| {.smallcaps}** |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| Fruit type     | G     | Acid | S     | Ratio | Unf     |   | Solids  |
|                | roves |      | olids |       | inished |   |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         |   | per box |
|                | sa    |      | (     |       | juice   |   |         |
|                | mpled |      | Brix) |       | per box |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
|                | *Nu   | *    | *Per  |       | *       |   | *       |
|                | mber* | Perc | cent* |       | Pounds* |   | Pounds* |
|                |       | ent* |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| **[Oranges]{   |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
| .smallcaps}**: |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| Early          |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Indian River | 8     | 0.81 | 11.92 | 14.96 | 53.08   | 6 |         |
| > District     |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 3 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 3 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Other Areas  | 70    | 0.77 | 11.81 | 15.53 | 51.69   | 6 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 1 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 1 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Midseason    |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Indian River | 10    | 0.95 | 12.33 | 13.05 | 55.56   | 6 |         |
| > District     |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 8 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 6 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Other Areas  | 31    | 0.84 | 11.64 | 14.07 | 50.88   | 5 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 9 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 2 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Late         |       |      |       |       |         |   |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Indian River | 27    | 1.51 | 11.42 | 7.61  | 54.98   | 6 |         |
| > District     |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 2 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 7 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+
| > Other Areas  | 123   | 1.36 | 11.07 | 8.23  | 55.94   | 6 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | . |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 1 |         |
|                |       |      |       |       |         | 9 |         |
+----------------+-------+------+-------+-------+---------+---+---------+

**FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS**

Size frequency distributions developed from the December size survey are
shown in the following table. The distributions are by percent of fruit
falling within the size range of each 4/5‑bushel container. These
frequency distributions relate to fruit from regular bloom and exclude
summer bloom in all years.

The charts to the right describe the relationships of the fruit size
measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter
measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range,
except for the smallest values.

> **[Chart 1:]{.smallcaps}** Early and midseason oranges (excluding
> Navels) size frequency by diameter from December measurements
>
> ![](media/image2.wmf){width="3.6243055555555554in"
> height="4.029166666666667in"}
>
> **[Chart 2:]{.smallcaps}** White seedless grapefruit size frequency by
> diameter from December measurements
>
> ![](media/image3.wmf){width="3.6243055555555554in"
> height="4.329166666666667in"}