**November Number range CHAPTER2005 NC Weather Review**

**Overview**

The severe drought conditions that has gripped much of central North
Carolina since mid summer appears to have peaked during October and the
first half of November. There was generally less than a half of an inch
of rainfall recorded during a 40+ day stretch between October 10^th^ and
November 20^th^. The lack of rain during this 40 day period exasperated
drought conditions across the region. Just as water levels at local
reservoirs in the northern Piedmont reached very near historic lows, the
rains finally returned. There were two significant widespread rains
between November 21 and 30, (each 1 to 3 inch soakers), which finally
brought some relief to the parched soils, fleeting stream levels, and
depleted reservoirs by month's end. Figure 1 depicts the estimated
November 2005 precipitation. The vast majority of this rainfall (up to
90 percent) fell toward the end of the month. The rain generally
averaged between 3 and 4 inches, with local totals of 5 inches over the
drought parched central Piedmont of North Carolina. The northern
Mountains received in excess of 6 inches.

Very warm temperatures accompanied the drought during the first half of
November. A colder pattern finally arrived along with the rain at the
end of the month. The late November chill down did not disrupt the
ongoing trend of above average monthly temperatures. November's
temperatures generally averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal across the
state. It was the seventh consecutive month of above normal temperatures
at Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham.

![](media/image1.png){width="6.495138888888889in"
height="3.4368055555555554in"}

**Figure 1 Estimated Rainfall for November 2005. Plotted data was
recorded by National Weather Service observation systems or cooperative
observers. Most of this rain fell at the tail end of the month which
brought significant relief to drought stricken central North Carolina.**

**Details**

**November 2005 Precipitation**

Many areas across North Carolina were well on their way to having one of
their driest November's on record; however, a pattern change from dry to
wet weather around November 20^th^ ended that threat. From November
20^th^ through the 30^th^, there were two significant large scale storm
systems that brought widespread rains throughout North Carolina. When
the final November 2005 precipitation totals were tallied, many areas
had either near normal rainfall, or even exceeded the normal rainfall
amounts for a typical November. Figure 2 is a comparison of observed
rainfall and the normal rainfall of November 2005 at selected locations
across North Carolina.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="5.604166666666667in"
height="3.5104166666666665in"}

**Figure 2. Comparison of observed precipitation and normal
precipitation for November 2005 at selected locations across North
Carolina.**

The most significant rain, ranging from 6 to 8 inches, fell along the
northern sections of the Blue Ridge Mountains during November. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches fell across the drought stricken Piedmont
region. The driest areas were found over the northern Coastal Plain and
the Outer Banks, where only 1 to 2 inches fell.

Due to the very dry antecedent soil conditions, the rainfall runoff
during the two significant rain events was still too small to begin to
replenish reservoir levels depleted by the drought. The rainfall was
beneficial, however, as it brought the region's first general soaking
rains since the first week in October. The statewide top soil moisture
levels showed improvement by the end of the month.

Figure 3 is the North Carolina drought monitor as seen on November 29,
2005. The severe and moderate drought classifications depicted over the
central Piedmont on November 29, had been trimmed back a few counties
since the rain began falling on November 20. For the latest information
concerning the drought visit <http://www.ncwater.org/drought/>

![](media/image3.png){width="5.801388888888889in"
height="2.9895833333333335in"}

**Figure 3. North Carolina Drought Monitor as of November 29, 2005. Note
that severe drought conditions are shown over portions of central North
Carolina.**

**Temperatures**

Temperatures across the state generally averaged 1 to 3 degrees above
normal during November. Average monthly temperatures ranged from 50 to
55 degrees, except the 40s over the Mountains and northwestern sections,
and near 60 on the Outer Banks. The average monthly temperatures across
North Carolina are shown in Figure 4.

![](media/image4.png){width="6.422916666666667in"
height="3.0631944444444446in"}

**Figure 4. Average monthly temperatures during November 2005 across
North Carolina.**

November began with very warm temperatures; average daily temperatures
occasionally ranged 15 to 20 degrees above normal between November 4 and
November 16. High temperatures generally reached well into the 70s to
lower 80s at times over inland locations during this period. Much colder
temperatures arrived with the passage of a cold front on November 16 and
17. After the pattern change, chilly temperatures became a fairly common
occurrence through the balance of the month. Temperature readings during
the last 2 weeks of the month occasionally averaged as much as 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Figures 5 and 6 depict the daily maximum and minimum temperatures
observed at both Raleigh-Durham (RDU) and Greensboro (GSO) during
November 2005. The dashed lines represent the normal maximum temperature
(red) and the normal minimum temperature (blue). The very warm
temperatures during the first two weeks of the month are noteworthy at
both RDU and GSO. The trend to colder weather by mid month also is
clearly evident.

![](media/image5.wmf){width="5.427083333333333in"
height="3.1979166666666665in"}

**Figure 5. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during
November 2005 at**

**Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

![](media/image6.wmf){width="5.333333333333333in"
height="3.1979166666666665in"}

**Figure 6. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during
November 2005 at Greensboro (GSO).**

With the arrival of colder weather after mid month, frost and freezing
conditions reached deep into the Coastal Plain and Coastal Area of North
Carolina on November 18^th^ and 19^th^. Figure 7 depicts the first 32
degree occurrences, or "first freeze" that was recorded during the fall
of 2005. Note that most areas from the Mountains into the Piedmont had
their first freeze by late October, while coastal locations did not
record a freeze until mid November. The Outer Banks and crystal coast
did not record a freeze through November 30. The average date for the
first freeze during the fall season can be found in the October 2005
North Carolina Weather Review.

![](media/image7.png){width="6.4944444444444445in"
height="3.0194444444444444in"}

**Figure 7. The first "Fall Freeze" or occurrence of the first 32 degree
temperature during the Fall of 2005.**

**Current, Semi-Annual and Annual Temperature Trends**

October marked the 7^th^ straight month of above normal average
temperatures at both Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham. Temperatures have
averaged above normal in 9 of the 11 months at both sites during 2005.
Only March and May averaged slightly cooler than the 30 year normal.
Dating back to 2004, both Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham have recorded
warmer than normal monthly temperatures in 13 of the past 15 months.
Figure 8 illustrates the annual monthly temperature departures from
normal as observed at Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham.

![](media/image8.wmf){width="5.59375in" height="3.59375in"}

**Figure 8. Monthly temperature departures from normal at Raleigh-Durham
and Greensboro.**

**Current, Semi-Annual, and Annual Precipitation Trends**

The moderate to severe drought classification continued to be in place
over much of central North Carolina at the end of November. The rainfall
during the last 10 days of November was a welcome relief; however, there
will need to be several more widespread soakings to totally relieve
central North Carolina from the grip of the current moderate to severe
drought.

Raleigh (NC State campus) received only 5.14 inches during the three
month period including August, September, and October. This produced a
rainfall deficit of nearly 6.5 inches, which was only 40 percent of
normal rainfall. The significant rainfall events during the latter part
of November helped boost the November total to 4.99 inches (nearly 2
inches above the normal of 2.97 inches). These rainfall events moistened
the top soil and increased the flow of water in the small streams and
creeks. There were even some minor rises in area lakes.

The total precipitation for the calendar year 2005 at Raleigh-Durham
(RDU) was 33.31 inches. This total was 6.70 inches below normal. There
has been sub par rainfall during 8 of the past 12 months at RDU.

![](media/image9.wmf){width="5.46875in" height="3.3333333333333335in"}

**Figure 9. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at
Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

The November 2005 rainfall at Greensboro (GSO) totaled 3.63 inches. This
brought the calendar year total to 29.60 inches. Even though November's
rainfall was 0.67 inches above normal, the yearly deficit at Greensboro
was still at 10.48 inches. The Greensboro to Burlington to Roxboro areas
continued to be in the center of the severe drought. Nine of the past
twelve months have been drier than normal. Figure 10 depicts the monthly
precipitation totals and the departure from normal during this period at
Greensboro.

![](media/image10.wmf){width="5.447916666666667in"
height="3.3645833333333335in"}

**Figure 10. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at Greensboro
(GSO).**

**North Carolina Water Resources Information- Review of the severe
drought affecting the central part of North Carolina since mid summer.**

The severe drought that has plagued much of central North Carolina since
mid summer continued with a vengeance through mid November.
Raleigh-Durham recorded only 0.39 inches of rain (10 percent of normal)
between October 9 and November 19. Similarly, Greensboro recorded less
than 0.50 inches during this six week period (15 percent of normal).
Finally on November 20^th^, the first of two significant rain events to
moisten the region in late November began. Most of the state received
between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall between November 20 and 22. This was
followed by another soaker of 1 to locally 3 inches on November 28 and
29. The combination of the two storm systems late in the month helped
bring the final November 2005 rainfall amounts up to near normal levels.
Some locations even surged to above normal levels over the central
Piedmont and northern Mountains.

As the drought of 2005 waxed in early and mid November, local
municipalities continued to tighten mandatory water restrictions that
were already in place. Reservoir levels dipped to near record lows. The
drop in Falls Lake, the water supply for the city of Raleigh and many of
its sister towns in nearby Wake County, was alarming. The Falls Lake
level dipped to 243.07 feet on November 20, 2005 (8.43 feet below the
normal pool level of 251.5 feet). This was only 0.29 of a foot from the
record low of 242.78 feet recorded November 27, 1993. Figure 11
(courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey) illustrates the lack of rain
and the corresponding rapid depletion of the water in Falls Lake. With
the rain during the last 10 days of the month, the lake level began to
rise slowly.

![](media/image11.png){width="5.926388888888889in"
height="3.9583333333333335in"}

**Figure 11. Falls Lake Water Level and Rainfall since the January 2005.
Data courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.**

The significant rainfall during the latter half of November helped
increase soil moisture and small stream flow conditions. Lake levels, as
evidenced at Falls Lake in Figure 11, remained low but did begin to show
some minor rises by November 30. If nothing else, the widespread rains
did bring a sense of psychological relief to the region that had been
experiencing a severe drought with rapidly depleting water resources.
Strict mandatory water restrictions had also been placed upon many local
cities and towns due to the dwindling supply of water at local
reservoirs.

The 2005 rainfall deficits over much of interior North Carolina showed
slight reversals by late November from the gaudy numbers posted in late
October. The deficits generally had 0.50 to 2.00 inches knocked off the
previously reported 7 to 14 inch from late October. However, the severe
drought classification continued centered on the Greensboro to Roxboro
to Raleigh-Durham regions of the Piedmont.

Although the streams, lakes, and reservoirs saw some improvement by
month's end, the water restrictions imposed by the local governments
around the major Triad and Triangle regions remained intact.

**Climate Outlook for December, January, and February 2005**

The Climate Prediction Center released its most recent 3 month outlook
recently. Details concerning this forecast can be found at:

<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif>.

Some improvement in the recent drought conditions over central North
Carolina are expected during the winter season. Significant relief from
the severe drought conditions is expected to occur but it should be slow
to happen. It is expected that it will take 4 to 5 additional
significant widespread soakings (1 to 2 inch rainfalls) during the next
two months to ameliorate the severe drought over the central Piedmont.

Current indications are that there is an equal chance of above normal,
normal, or below normal precipitation and temperatures during the winter
season in North Carolina. This means that there are no clear signals
that support a forecast of above normal or below normal precipitation
over central North Carolina as we move through the winter season.

**NC Weather Review Team**

Phillip Badgett

Michael Strickler