Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Felix

(AL062007)

31 August -- 5 September 2007

Jack Beven

National Hurricane Center

16 January 2008

Hurricane Felix was a small, but powerful, category 5 hurricane (on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that caused major damage in northeastern
Nicaragua.

a.  Synoptic History

    Felix formed from a tropical wave that departed the coast of Africa
    on 24 August. The wave moved westward across the tropical Atlantic
    for several days while producing a persistent area of disorganized
    cloudiness and showers. The shower activity increased in
    organization beginning on 29 August accompanied by a gradual
    increase in low-level vorticity. It is estimated that a tropical
    depression formed around 1200 UTC 31 August about 195 n mi
    east-southeast of Barbados. The "best track" chart of the tropical
    cyclone's path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure
    histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track
    positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

    The depression initially moved westward, then made a
    west-northwestward jump that was possibly due to reformation of the
    center. As a westward motion resumed, the cyclone became a tropical
    storm around 0000 UTC 1 September about 60 n mi south of Barbados.
    The center of Felix passed over Grenada about 0845 UTC 1 September,
    then moved across the southern portion of the Caribbean Sea embedded
    in deep-layer easterly flow. Felix quickly strengthened, becoming a
    hurricane near 0000 UTC 2 September while centered about 155 n mi
    east of Bonaire in the Netherlands Antilles.

    Felix moved just north of due west on 2 September, with its center
    passing 35-45 n mi north of the Netherlands Antilles. Very rapid
    strengthening occurred during the day, with the maximum sustained
    winds increasing to 145 kt by 0000 UTC 3 September -- Category 5 on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The central pressure reached a
    minimum of 929 mb at 0700 UTC 3 September - a 64-mb fall in 32 h. An
    eyewall replacement cycle began later that day, with Felix weakening
    to a Category 3 hurricane and the central pressure rising to 953 mb.
    This was followed by re-intensification at the end of the cycle, and
    it is estimated that Felix regained Category 5 status just before
    landfall near Punta Gorda, Nicaragua at 1200 UTC 4 September.

    After landfall, Felix weakened rapidly to a tropical storm over
    northern Nicaragua less than 12 h after landfall. The cyclone
    decelerated and turned west-northwestward, and it weakened to a
    remnant low over northern Honduras early on 5 September. The low
    briefly emerged over the Gulf of Honduras later that day. However,
    no re-development occurred before it moved into Belize and
    Guatemala. While the remnant low dissipated over eastern Mexico late
    on 6 September, the residual cloudiness and showers moved westward
    into the Pacific and could be tracked until 9 September.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Felix (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as
    well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from flights of
    the 53^rd^ Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force
    Reserve Command and the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. Data and
    imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, the NASA Aqua,
    the Department of Defense Windsat, and Defense Meteorological
    Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking
    Felix.

    The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters made 13 missions into Felix
    producing 26 center fixes. The first mission reported 42-kt winds at
    a flight-level of 1500 ft at 2238 UTC 31 August, which is the basis
    for designating Felix as a tropical storm in the best track at 0000
    UTC 1 September. These winds were just a few nautical miles east of
    the center, indicating that Felix had a small radius of maximum
    winds at an early stage of its existence. Felix would remain a small
    hurricane through its life, with tropical-storm force winds never
    extending more than 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force
    winds never extending more than 40 n mi from the center.

    The maximum intensity of Felix near 0000-0600 UTC 3 September has
    greater than normal uncertainty. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
    estimated a 163 kt surface wind in the northeastern eyewall using
    the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), while a dropsonde
    in the vicinity measured winds of 195 kt about 120 m above the
    surface. (The sonde subsequently fell into the eye, which
    significantly reduced the low-level layer-average winds that are
    normally used to assess the surface winds.) Examination of these
    SFMR data by personnel at the NOAA Hurricane Research Division found
    no obvious problems with signal contamination by rain or graupel.
    However, the observed flight-level winds (152 kt at 700 mb),
    aircraft Doppler radar data, central pressure, and satellite
    signature do not support an intensity of 160-165 kt. Detailed data
    from the sonde show that the extreme winds were confined to the
    lowest 200 m, and that it made a left turn into the eye while
    passing through this layer. This suggests that the sonde and the
    SFMR sampled a small-scale feature in the eyewall that likely was
    not representative of the true strength of Felix. As the plane
    passed through the southeastern eyewall, the SFMR estimated surface
    winds of 142 kt, while a dropsonde reported low-level layer averages
    supporting 130-140 kt surface sustained winds. Given the westward
    motion at the time, it is likely that the stronger winds existed in
    the northern eyewall. The maximum intensity is set at 150 kt based
    on a blend of these data, and this could be conservative.

    It should be noted that during this eye penetration, the NOAA
    aircraft encountered extreme turbulence and vertical motions, and it
    had to abort the mission and return to base.

    Felix's winds increased by 115 kt -- from 35 kt to 150 kt -- in the
    48 h period ending at 0000 UTC 3 September. In the 24-h period
    ending at that time, the winds increased by 85 kt. In the history of
    Atlantic tropical cyclones, only Hurricane Wilma of 2005 is known to
    have intensified faster over 24- and 48-h periods.

    The maximum flight level winds were 162 kt at 700 mb at 1111 UTC 3
    September. The minimum pressure of 929 mb is based on an eye
    dropsonde at 0658 UTC 3 September with a 931 mb surface pressure and
    30 kt surface winds. At this time, the lowest height for the 700 mb
    pressure surface was measured.

    The last flight into Felix before landfall in Nicaragua on 4
    September found that the central pressure had fallen to 939 mb with
    700 mb flight-level winds of 148 kt. The aircraft departed the storm
    about five hours before landfall, and after its departure satellite
    imagery showed increasing organization with cooling of the eyewall
    cloud tops and warming of the eye. Objective Dvorak Technique
    T-numbers reached 6.9 (137 kt) at 1045 UTC, and based on this, Felix
    is estimated to have regained Category 5 intensity just before
    landfall.

    Surface observations near the core of Felix were scarce, with
    selected surface observations from land stations given in Table 2.
    Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua reported sustained winds of 44 kt at 1300
    UTC 4 September as the southern eyewall of Felix passed nearby.
    Point Saline International Airport on Grenada reported a wind gust
    of 57 kt at 0930 UTC 1 September and a minimum pressure of 1001.0 mb
    40 minutes earlier. Bequia Island in the Grenadines reported a gust
    of 47 kt at 0606 UTC 1 September, while Barbados reported a gust of
    43 kt at 0230 UTC that day. Aruba in the Netherlands Antilles
    reported a gust to 36 kt at 1436 UTC 2 September.

    There were no ship reports of hurricane or tropical storm force
    winds from Felix. NOAA buoy 42059 reported a wind gust of 35 kt at
    0806 UTC 2 September, at which time it was about 140 n mi
    north-northeast of the center.

    The small size and relatively fast movement of Felix resulted in
    relatively light rainfall totals (Table 2) along most of the track.
    Heavier amounts occurred when the storm decelerated over Central
    America, with a maximum amount of 9.62 inches at Omoa Cortes,
    Honduras.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    Media reports indicate that Felix caused 130 deaths in Nicaragua and
    Honduras, along with 70 others missing. While detailed figures on
    how many were killed in each country are not available, the reports
    suggest that the majority of the deaths were in Nicaragua.

    Felix's landfall in Nicaragua caused severe damage to structures
    from winds and storm surge along the coast from Puerto Cabezas
    northward. Media reports indicate thousands of homes and other
    structures were destroyed. Additional damage from rain-induced
    flooding occurred inland in both Nicaragua and Honduras. Monetary
    damage figures are not available.

    Wind and high surf caused minor damage on Aruba, Bonaire, and
    Curacao, while wind and lightning caused minor damage on St. Vincent
    and the Grenadines.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The genesis of Felix was fairly well anticipated. The precursor
    tropical wave was first mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook on
    27 August, and the possibility of development into a depression was
    noted on 30 August -- about 24 h before genesis. These outlooks also
    included statements that the Windward Islands should monitor the
    progress of the approaching system. One noteworthy aspect of Felix's
    genesis was that the National Weather Service's Global Forecast
    System model failed to predict it.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 3. Average official track errors for Felix were 21,
    37, 53, 71, 106, and 120 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h
    forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged from 17 at
    12 h to 3 at 96 h. These errors are notably lower than the average
    long-term official track errors (Table 3). The official track
    forecasts errors were better than those for most of the individual
    and consensus track guidance. A few of the models had lower average
    forecast errors than the official forecast, with the best performers
    being the interpolated European Center for Medium Range Weather
    Forecasting model (EMXI) and the interpolated mean of National
    Weather Service Global Forecast System ensembles (AEMI).

    Average official intensity errors were 18, 26, 35, 53, 56 and 35 kt
    for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h forecasts, respectively. These
    errors are significantly larger than average long-term official
    intensity errors of 6, 10, 12, 14, 18, and 20 kt, respectively. The
    72-h forecast errors were larger than those of the
    climatology-persistence model SHF5, indicating these forecasts had
    no skill. There were two sources of the intensity forecast errors.
    First, while it was correctly anticipated that Felix would
    intensify, the rapid intensification that occurred was poorly
    forecast. For example, the 48-h intensity forecast issued at 0000
    UTC 1 September was 95 kt too low. The second source came from early
    track forecasts that showed the center of Felix passing north of
    Nicaragua and Honduras rather than over them. This led to intensity
    forecasts that were significantly too strong in the belief the
    center would remain over water. It should be noted that while a
    couple of the intensity forecast models had lower average errors
    than the official forecast at a majority of the forecast time, the
    models all had very large average errors.

    Table 5 shows the coastal watches and warnings for Felix.

Acknowledgements

Data from Nicaragua, Honduras, the Netherlands Antilles, Grenada,
Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines were provided by the
meteorological services of those countries.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Felix, 31 August
-- 5 September 2007.

+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| Date/Time | L       | Lo      | P       | Wind    | Stage          |
|           | atitude | ngitude | ressure | Speed   |                |
| (UTC)     |         |         |         |         |                |
|           | (°N)    | (°W)    | (mb)    | (kt)    |                |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 1200 | 11.5    | 56.6    | 1009    | 25      | tropical       |
|           |         |         |         |         | depression     |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 31 / 1800 | 11.5    | 58.0    | 1008    | 30      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 0000 | 12.1    | 59.4    | 1007    | 35      | tropical storm |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 0600 | 12.1    | 61.1    | 1005    | 40      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1200 | 12.2    | 62.8    | 1001    | 50      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 1800 | 12.4    | 64.5    | 999     | 60      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 0000 | 12.6    | 66.1    | 992     | 65      | hurricane      |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 0600 | 12.7    | 67.8    | 985     | 85      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 1200 | 13.0    | 69.4    | 980     | 90      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 02 / 1800 | 13.4    | 71.1    | 962     | 115     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 0000 | 13.8    | 73.0    | 935     | 150     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 0600 | 14.0    | 75.0    | 930     | 150     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 1200 | 14.2    | 76.9    | 937     | 140     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 1800 | 14.3    | 78.7    | 951     | 115     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 0000 | 14.4    | 80.4    | 950     | 115     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 0600 | 14.3    | 81.9    | 939     | 135     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 1200 | 14.3    | 83.2    | 934     | 140     | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 1800 | 14.3    | 84.4    | 962     | 85      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 0000 | 14.6    | 85.4    | 982     | 50      | tropical storm |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 0600 | 15.0    | 86.4    | 1004    | 25      | tropical       |
|           |         |         |         |         | depression     |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 1200 | 15.5    | 87.3    | 1006    | 20      | remnant low    |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 05 / 1800 | 16.1    | 88.3    | 1007    | 20      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 0000 | 16.5    | 89.5    | 1007    | 20      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 0600 | 16.7    | 90.8    | 1007    | 20      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 1200 | 17.2    | 92.4    | 1007    | 20      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 06 / 1800 | 17.7    | 93.8    | 1010    | 15      | "              |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 07 / 0000 |         |         |         |         | dissipated     |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 03 / 0700 | 14.0    | 75.3    | 929     | 150     | minimum        |
|           |         |         |         |         | pressure       |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 01 / 0845 | 12.1    | 61.7    | 1001    | 45      | landfall on    |
|           |         |         |         |         | Grenada        |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+
| 04 / 1200 | 14.3    | 84.4    | 934     | 140     | landfall near  |
|           |         |         |         |         | Punta Gorda,   |
|           |         |         |         |         | Nicaragua      |
+-----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------------+

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected surface
observations for Hurricane Felix, 31 August -- 5 September 2007.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Nicaragua**   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Puerto Cabezas  |     |     | 0   | 44    |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .11 |
|                 |     |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Boquete      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .38 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Rosario      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .02 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Sauce        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .64 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Masatepe        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .37 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rio Grande      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| Matagalpa       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .56 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Telica          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .13 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Yeye-Siuna      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| Salto           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .28 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Honduras**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Ceiba        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .17 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Labor        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| Ocotepeque      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .95 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| La Mesa         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Omoa Cortes     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .62 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Puerto Lempira  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Santa Rosa de   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| Copan           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tela            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .38 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Trujillo        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .13 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Yoro            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Grenada**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Point Saline    | 0   | 100 | 0   |       | 57  |     |     | 3   |
| Intl. Airport   | 1/0 | 1.0 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     | .34 |
|                 | 850 |     | 930 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Barbados**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Grantley Adams  | 3   | 101 | 0   | 30    | 43  |     |     | 0   |
| Airport         | 1/2 | 0.8 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     | .85 |
|                 | 000 |     | 230 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Grenadine     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Islands**       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bequia          | 0   | 101 | 0   | 26    | 47  |     |     | 1   |
|                 | 1/0 | 0.3 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     | .00 |
|                 | 656 |     | 801 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **St. Vincent** |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| E. T. Joshua    | 0   | 101 | 0   | 21    | 36  |     |     |     |
| Airport         | 1/0 | 1.1 | 1/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 650 |     | 550 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Netherlands   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Antilles**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Aruba           | 0   | 100 | 0   | 29^e^ | 36  |     |     | 1   |
|                 | 2/1 | 8.4 | 2/1 |       |     |     |     | .31 |
|                 | 408 |     | 436 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bonaire         | 0   | 100 | 0   | 25^e^ | 31  |     |     | 0   |
|                 | 2/0 | 6.5 | 2/0 |       |     |     |     | .88 |
|                 | 727 |     | 636 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Curacao         | 0   | 100 | 0   | 20^e^ | 28  |     |     | 2   |
|                 | 2/0 | 6.7 | 2/1 |       |     |     |     | .14 |
|                 | 922 |     | 052 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods are 10 minutes.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ 1-min average wind

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Preliminary early model track forecast
evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Felix, 31 August -- 5
September 2007. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of
forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast
are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 28    | 63    | 106   | 162   | 256 ( | 363 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 31    | 55    | 94    | 122 ( | 219 ( |       |       |
|           | (14)  | (12)  | (10)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 27    | 47    | 61    | 75    | *     | 145 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | *95** | 4)    |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 36    | 59    | 83    | 114   | 162 ( | 282 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NAMI      | 30    | 59 (  | 87 (  | 89 (  | 152 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| COAI      | 37    | 87    | 154 ( | 232 ( |       |       |       |
|           | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 26    | 45    | 64    | *     | *     | 120 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (15)  | (13)  | *64** | *89** | 2)    |       |
|           |       |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 6)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |       |       |
|           | *18** | *28** | *39** | *62** | *95** |       |       |
|           | (18)  | (11)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 4)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 35    | 59    | 86    | 121   | 195 ( | 159 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 7)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 25    | 43    | 58    | 80 (  | 148 ( | 184 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | 26    | 37    | *     | *     | *     | *     |       |
|           | (16)  | (14)  | *42** | *61** | *84** | *76** |       |
|           |       |       | (12)  | (10)  | ( 6)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| JGSI      | 40 (  | 60 (  | 134 ( | 102 ( | *     |       |       |
|           | 8)    | 5)    | 5)    | 3)    | *73** |       |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 1)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | 28    | 62    | 93    | 114   | 132 ( | *     |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | *89** |       |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 28    | 47    | 67    | 92    | 114 ( | 154 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 30    | 56    | 84    | 114   | 155 ( | 229 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 34    | 66    | 103   | 138   | 206 ( | 253 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | 25    | 43    | 64    | 80    | 127 ( | 140 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 7)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CCON      | 25    | 42    | 60    | 73    | 122 ( | 176 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 7)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 22    | 39    | 53    | 73 (  | 136 ( | 184 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (12)  | (10)  | 8)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 21    | *     | *     | *     | 138 ( | 204 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | *31** | *43** | *68** | 5)    | 1)    |       |
|           |       | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 21    | 37    | 53    | 71    | 106 ( | 120 ( |       |
|           | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 61    | 86    | 112   | 162   | 221   | 290   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 4. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane Felix, 31 August -- 5 September 2007. Forecast
errors (kt) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses.
Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face
type. Verification includes the depression stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHF5      | 29.1  | 38.6  | 47.7  | 58.3  | **5   | 39.0  |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 5.5** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 31.1  | 42.8  | 62.1  | 67.1  | 73.3  |       |       |
|           | (14)  | (12)  | (10)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI      | 24.5  | 32.7  | 45.2  | **4   | **4   | 46.8  |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | 9.9** | 6.3** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       |       |       | (12)  | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 25.7  | 40.6  | 48.0  | 74.6  | 77.9  | 55.3  |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  | ( 3)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP      | 27.7  | 36.9  | 43.2  | 53.2  | **4   | 42.8  |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 9.6** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 19.7  | **2   | **3   | **5   | **4   | 51.5  |       |
|           | (18)  | 4.2** | 3.1** | 2.1** | 9.6** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LGEM      | 20.5  | **2   | **3   | **4   | **4   | 50.0  |       |
|           | (18)  | 3.0** | 1.8** | 9.6** | 8.9** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       | (16)  | (14)  | (12   | ( 8)  |       |       |
|           |       |       |       | **)** |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 28.0  | 33.7  | 42.0  | **5   | **4   | 37.0  |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 0.2** | 9.2** | ( 1)  |       |
|           |       |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | 23.8  | 31.8  | 39.8  | 58.2  | **5   | 39.5  |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | 5.1** | ( 4)  |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 17.9  | 25.7  | 35.4  | 53.2  | 55.7  | 35.0  |       |
|           | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.4   | 9.8   | 12.0  | 14.1  | 18.3  | 19.8  | 21.8  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 5. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Felix, 31 August -- 5 September 2007.

  ----------- ----------------------------- -------------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                        Location
  (UTC)                                     

  31 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning issued St. Vincent, the Grenadines,
                                            Grenada, Tobago

  31 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch issued   Coast of Venezuela from Cumana
                                            to Pedernales including the
                                            island of Margarita

  31 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch issued   Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao

  1 / 0900    Tropical Storm Warning issued Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao

  1 / 0900    Tropical Storm Warning        Tobago
              discontinued                  

  1 / 1200    Tropical Storm Warning        St. Vincent and the Grenadines
              discontinued                  

  1 / 1500    Tropical Storm Warning        Grenada
              discontinued                  

  1 / 1800    Tropical Storm Watch          Coast of Venezuela from Cumana
              discontinued                  to Pedernales including the
                                            island of Margarita

  2 / 0000    Tropical Storm Watch issued   Jamaica

  2 / 0300    Hurricane Watch issued        Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao

  2 / 1500    Tropical Storm Watch issued   Grand Cayman Island

  2 / 1800    All coastal watches and       Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao
              warnings discontinued         

  3 / 0300    Hurricane Watch issued        Coast of Honduras from Limon
                                            eastward to the
                                            Nicaragua/Honduras border

  3 / 0900    Hurricane Warning issued      Coast of Honduras from Limon
                                            eastward to the
                                            Nicaragua/Honduras border

  3 / 0900    Hurricane Watch issued        Coast of Honduras west of Limon
                                            to the Honduras/Guatemala
                                            border

  3 / 1200    Hurricane Watch issued        Coasts of Guatemala and Belize

  3 / 1500    Hurricane Warning issued      Coast of Nicaragua from Puerto
                                            Cabezas northward to the
                                            Nicaragua/Honduras border

  3 / 1800    Tropical Storm Watch          Jamaica
              discontinued                  

  3 / 2100    Tropical Storm Warning issued Isla de Providencia

  4 / 0000    Tropical Storm Watch          Grand Cayman Island
              discontinued                  

  4 / 0300    Tropical Storm Warning issued Coast of Nicaragua south of
                                            Puerto Cabezas to Prinzapolka

  4 / 0300    Tropical Storm Warning issued Coast of Honduras west of Limon
                                            to Honduras/Guatemala border
                                            including Islas de la Bahia

  4 / 1500    Tropical Storm Warning        Isla de Providencia
              discontinued                  

  4 / 1800    All coastal watches and       Coast of Nicaragua
              warnings discontinued         

  4 / 1800    Hurricane warning changed to  Coast of Honduras from Limon
              Tropical Storm Warning        eastward to the
                                            Nicaragua/Honduras border

  4 / 1800    Hurricane Watch discontinued  Coast of Guatemala and coast of
                                            Belize north of Placentia
                                            Village

  4 / 1800    Hurricane watch changed to    Coast of Belize from Placentia
              Tropical Storm Watch          Village southward to the
                                            Belize-Guatemala border

  5 / 0300    All coastal watches and       
              warnings discontinued         
  ----------- ----------------------------- -------------------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="8.09375in" height="6.277777777777778in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Felix,
31 August -- 5 September 2007.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.789583333333334in"
height="5.4840277777777775in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve Hurricane Felix, 31 August --
5 September 2007. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation
using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb,
850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include
actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the
mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Solid vertical line denotes
landfall.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="8.699305555555556in"
height="6.0152777777777775in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Felix, 31 August -5
September 2007. Solid vertical line denotes landfall.