**Excerpts from High Impact Plan**

**Proposals/initiatives related to forecast uncertainty**

**Requirements: Warn-on-Forecast**

This concept of operations extends predictability of tornadoes by
optimally utilizing NEXRAD data in real time which is linked with high
resolution stormscale models that use advanced assimilation schemes. The
requirement is to couple radar detections with model predictions to get
warnings based upon a combination of both -- rather than just upon
detection, as we do today.

**Activities in Current Program:** New program

Gap-MOD-01: Couple high resolutions observations detecting an event with
high resolution cloud scale models (WWS) to support "Warn-on Forecast"

[Alt-MOD-01]{.underline}:

-   Description: Using experimental high resolution data (e.g., radar)
    and advanced ensemble data assimilation techniques with high
    resolution cloud-scale models

-   Benefit: Extends warnings through high-resolution prediction coupled
    with high resolution detection beyond current 13 minutes lead time
    towards 30 minutes or more

-   Responsible Program(s): WWS

-   Cost (100%): FY09-13 (\$K): 1150, 1150, 638, 638, 638

> [Variation for Constrained Super Alternative (\<100%)]{.underline}

-   Description: Reduce request by 50% would allow some progress to be
    made on several sub-tasks, while other sub-tasks would be delayed.

-   Benefit: Some progress could be made on data quality control,
    testing of temporal and spatial impact on scanning strategies,
    testing of parameterization errors on storm scale analysis, and an
    initial assessment of value radar data assimilation is to warnings.
    However, delays would include extension of forecast of storm-scale
    system by 5-10 minutes via reduction of model parameterization error
    (to FY10), incorporation of polarimetric data into analyses (to
    FY11), real-time single radar, multi-sensor regional storm-scale
    analysis and forecasts for NWS forecaster evaluation (to FY12).
    Finally, these tasks are not achievable without full funding (too
    much scientific and software development needed): synthesis of
    mesoscale/cloud scale models into single analysis/forecast system
    and testing of a real time mesocyclone development. Without full
    funding for these sub-tasks, NEXRAD radar data would have to be used
    (vs. PAR data) for Warn on Forecast, reducing the tornado lead time
    from 30+ min down to the current NWS GPRA estimates

-   Reduced Cost (\<100%): FY 09-13 (\$K): 575, 575, 320, 320, 320

**Requirements: Hydrology**

For NOAA in the Carolinas, WW-HYD will coordinate with WW-CEO to develop
and transition to operations: new high resolution (in space and time)
flash flood and river forecast and warning capabilities, estuary and
coastal flood-forecast capabilities and products coupled with improved
prediction of water quality, and estuarine ecosystem health using the
Tar River Basin and Pamlico Sound in North Carolina for development and
operational prototyping.

**Activities in Current Program:** New activity

Gap-MOD-03: Apply hydrologic observations and technologies to support
high resolution forecast modeling through the proposed \"NOAA in the
Carolinas\" activity.

[Alt-MOD-03]{.underline}:

-   Description: This activity will provide uncertainty information to
    better satisfy needs at the local level; faster transition of
    research results to applications; improved communication with field
    personnel and other water agencies; and, new products and services
    implemented faster by leveraging existing related activities.

-   Benefit: Improved flash and river flood, storm surge and water
    resource forecasts/warnings in the Tar River Basin, improved
    ecosystem forecast and management tools in the Tar River Basin and
    Pamlico Sound, improved protection of life, property and natural
    resources and an enhancement of public and private decision support
    capabilities in the coastal zone. In addition, the new capabilities
    will serve as a prototype for new NOAA capabilities that could be
    deployed in all coastal zones

-   Responsible Program(s): HYD

-   Cost (100%): FY09-13 (\$K): 2610, 2610, 3090, 3090, 3240

> [Variation for Constrained Super Alternative (\<100%)]{.underline}

-   Description: Same as above but complete over 10 year (vs. 5 year)
    period

-   Benefit: Same as above

-   Reduced Cost (\<100%): FY 09-13 (\$K): 1305, 1305, 1305, 1305, 1505

**Requirements: Probabilistic Information**

Users require high quality probabilistic information on which to base
business decisions**.**

**Activities in Current Program:** New effort

Gap-MOD-05: High quality probabilistic information

[Alt-MOD-05:]{.underline}

-   Description: Develop missing parts of multi-scale unified
    environmental data assimilation, modeling, ensemble forecast, and
    probabilistic bias correction system capable of delivering high
    quality probabilistic information on high impact events on various
    scales.

-   Benefit: Provision of automated and seamless suite of probabilistic
    numerical forecast guidance on scales from hours to seasons

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-   Base level THORPEX funding addresses gap for global scale forecasts
    in the 3-14 day range.

-   Requested funding to be used to generalize procedures, develop
    adaptations and run data assimilation/ensemble
    forecasting/post-processing tests covering local (0-24 hr) and
    regional (24-72 hrs) scales.

-   Integration of longer than 16-day forecasts (weather-climate
    linkage) is to be covered under Drought and Water Resources plan.

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-   Responsible Program(s): WWS/THORPEX, EMP

-   Cost: FY09-13 (\$K): 700, 700, 700, 700, 700

> [Variation for Constrained Super Alternative (\<100%)]{.underline}

-   Description: Reduced effort

-   Benefit: Reduced from above

-   Reduced Cost (\<100%): FY 09-13 (\$K):: 300, 300, 300, 300, 300

**Requirements: Forecast Engine**

Establish comprehensive suite of ensemble forecast systems ("forecast
engine") that will facilitate the generation of automated forecast
guidance products in the framework of the new NOAA CONOPS as the basis
("forecast engine") for NOAA operations regarding high impact events:

-   Design of new adaptive NWP. This new adaptive system constitutes the
    backbone of the new NOAA concept of operations. The design of this
    new system will exploit guidance from the international THORPEX
    program whose goals are aligned with the new concept of operations,
    and the development work can build on related NOAA ST&I/THORPEX
    capabilities:

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-   Enhanced data assimilation procedures for high impact events

-   Enhanced resolution integrations over areas affecting/affected by
    high impact weather - Run LAM ensembles or Enhance resolution of
    variable resolution global model

    Many of these special procedures will require new dedicated
    resources in terms of specially designed observing platforms such as
    UAS, and increased computational facilities.

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-   Comprehensive suite of ensemble forecast systems. The generation of
    high quality automated probabilistic forecast guidance requires the
    use of sophisticated ensemble forecast systems. Ensemble systems are
    based on an estimate of the initial state by data assimilation
    methods, using the observing system (link with GEOSS), using state
    of the art numerical models. An ensemble of forecasts can predict
    the future state of the environment and assess the case dependent
    uncertainty in such forecast. An adaptive and integrated
    probabilistic product generation suite will require the following
    components:

    -   Global ensemble forecast system (Days 1-16 days, global
        coverage)

    -   Regional ensemble forecast system (Regular runs: days 1-3 days,
        regional -- NA coverage; special high impact runs at longer lead
        times)

    -   Local ensemble forecast system (up to 6-24 hours) for warning
        type activities, run only in a high impact, adaptive mode

    -   Seasonal (climate) ensemble forecast system -- to provide
        numerical guidance extending beyond 16 days

-   Statistical post-processing and automated probabilistic product
    generation

    -   Removal of systematic errors from ensemble/probabilistic
        forecasts

    -   Generation of specific products for various high impact events

        **Activities in Current Program:**

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-   Support of external and internal NOAA research in ensemble-based
    data assimilation and numerical modeling through the NOAA/THORPEX
    grant program

-   Multi-center ensemble development (statistical post-processing and
    product development) for the 3-14 day range on the global scales
    (North American Ensemble Forecast System)

Gap-MOD-06: Develop missing parts of multi-scale unified environmental
data assimilation, modeling, ensemble forecast, and probabilistic bias
correction system capable of delivering high quality probabilistic
information on high impact events on various scales

[Alt-MOD-06:]{.underline}

-   Description: Generalize data assimilation, ensemble generation,
    statistical post-processing and product generation procedures
    developed by THORPEX for global scales for 3-14 day time range and
    then adapt and apply them to cover local (0-24 hr) and regional
    (24-72 hrs) scales. Integration of longer than 16-day forecasts
    (weather-climate linkage) is to be covered under Drought and Water
    Resources plan.

-   Benefit: Provision of automated and seamless suite of probabilistic
    numerical forecast guidance on scales from hours to seasons

-   Responsible Program(s): WWS/THORPEX, EMP

Cost: FY09-13 (\$K): 700, 700, 700, 700, 700

Variation for constrained alternative:

-   Description: Adapt procedures only on regional scales, for 24-72 hrs
    time range

-   Benefit: Full benefit for regional forecasting; gap remains on time
    scales shorter than a day.

-   Constrained alternative cost FY09-13 (\$K): 300, 300, 300, 300, 300

    **Requirements: Hazardous Weather**

    Forecasters have a requirement for quick infusion of latest science
    and technology into operations and test beds provide the most
    optimal solution to this need.

    **Activities in Current Program:** New Program

Gap-T&B-01: Develop new warning guidance tools from multiple sensors and
numerical cloud-scale models in Hazardous Weather Test (HWT) Bed

[Alt-T&B-01]{.underline}:

-   Description: The HWT is the newly established formal project name
    given to the annual joint NWS/NCEP and NSSL research to operations
    activity held during the last decade. Recently the HWT was
    strengthened by a Congressional action that provided funding for
    NASA's SPoRT project and the University of Alabama's severe weather
    research program, both in Huntsville, AL to join the HWT and focus
    on severe weather including supercell tornadoes and tornadoes from
    tropical systems (note: VORTEX-II not included here)

-   Benefit: Improves basic understanding of severe weather processes
    through sharing of observations taken from equipment owned by each
    partner. Alabama partners are better positioned to study tornadoes
    and hazardous weather associated with tropical systems, while the
    Oklahoma partners are better positioned to study classical
    mid-western supercells. Together improvements can be made in warning
    and short-term forecast products for both NCEP's Storm Prediction
    Center and Forecast Offices.

-   Responsible Program(s): WWS

-   Cost (100%): FY09-13 (\$K): 538, 538, 538, 538, 538

> [Variation for Constrained Super Alternative (\<100%)]{.underline}

-   Description: At a 50% reduction in requested new funding the HWT
    could continue to function with a chief scientist position leading
    the effort on the NSSL side, along with 50% of an IT support person
    and funds for computer time, hardware, and software.

-   Benefit: A 50% reduction would allow the HWT to continue to function
    in support of both NCEP/SPC and the Forecast Offices. It would
    provide coordination of a visiting scientist/forecaster/researcher
    program (funded by the visitor's home organization, unless the LFW
    request for travel funds is successful). A robust HWT allows
    researchers and operational forecasters to concentrate on specific
    forecast problems, analyze how the models behave under certain
    circumstances relevant to the forecast problems, and to find ways to
    improve the tools forecasters have to address the problem.

-   Reduced Cost (\<100%): FY 09-13 (\$K): 269, 269, 269, 269, 269

    **Requirements: Probabilistic products**

Sophisticated Partners and Users demand probabilistic information to
make informed business case decision to support commerce, transportation
and prepare for high impact events.

**Activities in Current Program:** New program

Gap-T&B-02: Guidance for developing probabilistic based products

[Alt-T&B-02]{.underline}:

-   Description: This activity includes two components. First, at
    ESRL/GSD, new warning techniques are being developed based upon
    probabilities provided by WRF-based ensemble data assimilation
    systems. Second, at NSSL, NCEP-scale models are being run using
    ensemble Kalman filter techniques to provide, among other things,
    boundary conditions for Warn-on-Forecast models.

-   Benefit: Probabilistic techniques quantify uncertainty in forecasts
    and warnings in support of decision support systems and
    Warn-on-Forecast research.

-   Responsible Program(s): WWS

-   Cost (100%): FY09-13 (\$K): 880, 1130, 1130, 1130, 1130

> [Variation for Constrained Super Alternative (\<100%)]{.underline}

-   Description: At a 50% reduction in requested new funds, the OAR labs
    could make progress moving NWS toward its goal of using
    probabilistic forecasts to drive for decision support systems.

-   Benefit: Progress by NSSL could be made on both statistical
    post-processing tools for ensemble forecasting systems and an
    ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system, but at a slower
    pace. Merging regional ensemble systems with local convective-scale
    ensembles would need to be dropped. Assuming delayed advances in
    diabatic initialization and QPE-QPF blending, ESRL/GSD research
    would require forecasters to rely on extrapolation techniques during
    WRF model spin-up (1-3 hrs)

-   Reduced Cost (\<100%): FY 09-13 (\$K): 440, 565, 565, 565, 565