**The Impact of Policies on Food Security Using the PEDA Model: A Case
Study of Botswana, Cameroon and Ethiopia**

Dr. Kwadwo Tutu, Environment and Development Officer

Sustainable Development Division, UNECA

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Population, Environment, Development and Agriculture (PEDA) Model is an
interactive computer simulation model (developed for MS-Windows),
demonstrating the medium to long-term impacts of alternative national
policies on the food security status of the population.

Through the manipulation of scenario variables, the model enables the
user to project the proportion of the population that will be food
secure and food insecure for a chosen point in time. As food security is
a factor of development in the field of population, agriculture, the
environment and socio-economic development, the model demonstrates the
relationships between these fields as well. There is an HIV/AIDS
component that illustrates its impact on the other variables in the
model. The PEDA, therefore, is a model that gives answers to a wide
range of policy questions regarding the nexus interactions.

The Model has been initialised for three countries, namely, Ethiopia,
Cameroon and Botswana.

# Botswana

The simulation results for Botswana considering a morbidity rate of 25
per cent per year and reducing the rate over time by 2 per cent a year
due to HIV/AIDS yields the following results:

Considering the food insecure populations by urban and rural residence,
the elderly constitutes 18 and 16 per cent respectively by 2050.

The effect of the following mixed policies:

-   Reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality of 25 per cent by 4 per cent per
    year;

-   Increase in literacy to 0.7 per cent for females and 0.6 per cent
    for males;

-   An increase in technical education by 1 per cent per year;

-   An increase in net food imports by 2 per cent per year;

-   An increase in irrigation by 1 per cent per year; and

-   An increase in fertilizer use of 1 per cent per year.

will lead to lower proportions of the food insecure by about 41 per cent
by the year 2050 (ECA, Botswana 2001). This set of policies scenario
shows the importance of a multidisciplinary and multisectoral approach
to planning and policy making.

**Cameroon:**

Part of the population in Cameroon faces food insecurity. The country
faces deforestation while land degradation has begun to set in. The good
news is that their policy makers are aware of the importance of the
population-environment and agriculture nexus issues and policies that
have been formulated take account of the inter-linked relations of the
nexus issues.

Cameroon has formulated a strategic plan for sustainable development of
the country. The PEDA analysis shows that without this plan, there will
be a sharp increase in the weakest sub-group of the population that is
"Rural, illiterate, food insecure". However, if the strategic plan is
well implemented, there will be a positive impact on food security and
on the standard of living in Cameroon (ECA, Cameroon 2001).

**Ethiopia:**

Over the last two decades, Ethiopia has been in the headlines of
recurrent wars and famine. Reduced rainfall, conflicts and a
malfunctioning of the distribution system have led to acute food
security problems. About 50 to 60 percent of the population is
considered chronically food insecure.

The assumptions of the baseline scenario for Ethiopia are as follows:

**Net Food Imports**: It is assumed that food imports will increase by 2
per cent a year, reaching a level of 1,240,000 tons annually by the year
2030.

**Water**: The observed rainfall pattern during the cropping seasons is
used for the period 1995-1999. From the year 2000 onwards, the observed
rainfall pattern for 1992-1999 is repeated.

**Irrigation**: The baseline scenario assumes an annual increase in
irrigated land of 1 per cent.

**Machinery use**: It is assumed that machinery use will increase by 0.5
per cent a year.

**Technical Education**: It is assumed that the level of technical
education of the agricultural labour force will increase at an annual
rate of 1.5 per cent.

**Food Distribution**: Food is distributed proportionally to the number
of people living in rural and urban areas.

The baseline assumptions are assumed to be optimistic

## Simulation Results

The projection based on this baseline scenario is not positive. It shows
that per capita agricultural production by the end of the next 25 years
will be less than 80 per cent of what it was in 1995. Similarly, the
proportion of food insecure in the population is expected to increase
over the projection period by almost 10 per cent while food imports will
increase by more than 7 per cent annually in order to stabilize the
proportion of food insecure people in the country (ECA, Ethiopia 2001).

The rural food insecure segment of the population is expected to grow
the fasters (more than double by 2030). As a result, the land stock is
estimated to maintain only 86 per cent of its productive capacity by the
year 2030. (ECA, Ethiopia 2001)

## Scenario with HIV/AIDS

Ethiopia is a country with a high prevalent rate of HIV/AIDS of about 10
percent. We add a scenario of AIDS morbidity. To add to the baseline
assumptions, we assume that AIDS morbidity levels will increase in the
second half of the 1990s to reach 2 per cent per year by the year 2000.
After that, morbidity levels will be around 2.15 per cent per year for
the next decade and then start declining gradually.

The PEDA predicts that per capita food production will drop to less than
75 percent of what it was in 1995. As a result, the share of the food
insecure segment will increase to more than 75 percent of the population
by 2030.

## Policies to reverse the Vicious Circle

Three sets of policy scenarios have been envisaged to depart from the
baseline scenario.

1.  Increase in technological inputs in agriculture. It assumes an
    annual increase in fertilizer use of 6 per cent, in machinery use of
    1 per cent, in irrigation and technical education of 2 per cent.
    This means that by 2030, fertilizer use will be more than 7.5 times
    higher than in the initial year, that irrigation and technical
    education will double and that machinery use will be 1.5 times
    higher.

2.  The second scenario assumes almost universal education (95 per cent)
    in both rural and urban areas and a steeper fertility decline to
    reach TFR of 2.4 by the year 2030.

3.  This scenario combines the two scenarios.

## Simulation Results

Increased efforts in agricultural intensification or education and
fertility alone, may be capable of improving the situation in the short
run, but the proportion of the food insecure tends to increase again
after 20 to 30 years. The combined scenario has a more positive impact
on food security. The PEDA projections show that a solution for the food
security problem in Ethiopia is not likely to be found in one sector
alone. A combined set of policies in many sectors is likely to address
the food security problem in Ethiopia.

## References

ECA; "PEDA Advocacy Booklet: Projections for Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Nov.
2001.

ECA: "PEDA Advocacy Booklet: Projections on Aging for Botswana, Addis
Ababa, Nov. 2001

ECA: "PEDA Advocacy Booklet: Case Study: Cameroon, Addis Ababa, Nov.
2001.