[Meeting Agenda]{.underline}

[Seams Steering Group - Western Interconnection - Planning Work
Group]{.underline}

[Technical Support Group]{.underline}

June 11, 2003

PDX Conference Center

1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.

1.  Introductions

2.  2008 case: Final Approval of Assumptions and Base Case Results --
    Kurt Granat, Rich Nixon, Jamie Austin

3.  Potential elimination of low gas price case and possible creation of
    a higher high gas price case

4.  2013 case Generation Assumptions -- Phil Carver

-   Renewable Scenario

-   Coal Scenario

-   Gas Scenario

5.  2013 case Generation Assumptions -- Jeff Miller

-   Renewable Scenario

-   Coal Scenario

-   Gas Scenario

6.  Review progress on the attached action items from the prior meeting

7.  Review report outline and writing schedule

8.  Next meeting

# [SSG-WI-PWG Technical Support Group]{.underline}

# [Action Items as of 5/22/03]{.underline}

(Past due items shown in red)

In addition to the following action items, there are several report
drafting assignments as identified in the report outline and schedule
that has been distributed by Mary Johannis.

### Mary Johannis

1)  ~~Redraft the report outline and report writing schedule~~ -
    Completed

2)  Document generation assumptions and resulting reserve margin for the
    2008 and 2013 cases.

3)  Identify potential improvements in how this information is gathered
    (i.e., how the questions are posed to the WECC members)

4)  Analyze the issue of hydro modeling and develop specific
    recommendations for how to model low, average, and high hydro
    conditions in the simulations. Document the methodology for the
    report.

### Dennis Phillips

1)  Examine the graphics in the WGA report and look for ways to improve
    them.

### Phil Carver 

1)  Chair the generation subgroup and develop the 2013 generation
    assumptions (by June 5^th^). -

2)  Develop a table for each case (1 in 2008 and 3 in 2013) showing the
    amount of coal, wind and gas generation. Nameplate capacity,
    dependable capacity, and energy will be compared (by June 5^th^).

### Dean Perry

1)  Compare the 2008 simulation results with the historical data
    previously compiled (by June 5^th^)

### Jayson Antonoff

1)  Develop wind generation assumptions for the 2013 case (by June 1)

    a.  2008 case includes 2,800 MW of wind

    b.  2013 gas and coal scenario cases include 9,200 MW of wind (6,400
        MW of new wind generation)

    c.  2013 Renewables scenario case 21,200 MW of wind (18,400 of new
        wind - 12,000 MW above base or coal case)

2)  Provide a write-up to Mary Johannis on how wind generation was
    modeled by June 12.

## [Marv Landauer]{.underline} 

1)  Document the transmission addition assumptions for the 2008 and 2013
    cases

## 

## 

### Cynthia Praul

1)  ~~Distribute CEC 2013 transmission plan for the west to the group
    -~~ Completed

[Tom Foley (with advice from Doug Larsen)]{.underline}

1)  Document the approach used to address non-transmission alternatives
    and develop the results.

### Jeff Miller

1)  ~~Distribute graphics from CA-ISO Henwood LMP study to the group
    --~~ Unable to locate study

2)  ~~Help Jayson get wind information.~~ -- Help not requested

3)  Develop a position on whether Mohave should be included in the 2013
    case by June 1. -- Nearing Completion

4)  ~~Have transmission subgroup review OTC values for the 2008 case by
    June 1 -~~ Completed.

5)  ~~Have transmission subgroup review 2008 results and assess whether
    the limits are correct by June 1~~ - Completed

6)  Develop 2013 transmission assumptions by June 12. -- Will need to
    wait for Generation assumptions and also for initial simulations

### Ali Amarili/Jim Kritikson

1)  Write a section of the report that describes the difference between
    the ABB simulations and actual power markets.

### Kurt Granat and Rich Nixon

1)  ~~Finalize 2008 simulation -~~ Completed

2)  Develop a list of new plants included in the case by May 27.

[Unassigned Open Items:]{.underline}

1)  Need to examine constraints in getting the large pockets of
    generation that is developing, but not included in the 2008 case, to
    market. This may require additional simulations.

[Report Writing Group Members:]{.underline} Mary Johannis (Chair), Jeff
Miller, Dennis Phillips, Phil Carver, Doug Larson, Marv Landauer, Ken
Morris, Donald Davies, Jayson Antonoff, Jacob Willams, Cynthia Praul,
Jim Caldwell, Kurt Granat, Rich Nixon, Jamie Austin, and Dean Perry.

[Generation Subgroup Members:]{.underline} Phil Carver (Chair), Kurt
Granat, Cynthia Praul, Mary Johannis, Bob Smith, Doug Smith, Jacob
Willams, Jayson Antonoff, Donald Davies, and Phil Park.

[Transmission Subgroup Members:]{.underline} Jeff Miller (Chair), Marv
Landauer, Stan Gray, Jamie Austin, Kurt Granat, Rich Nixon, Donald
Davies, Ken Morris, Doug Smith, Harlow Peterson, Bob Smith, Doug Smith,
and Dennis Phillips

**Attachment X Report Outline**

**DRAFT (5/29/03)**

**EXPANDED OUTLINE**

# Report of the SSG-WI

**Western Interconnection Transmission Planning Process**

**Technical Study**

I.  Executive summary -- Doug Larson

    A.  Brief description of reasons for study, planning process and
        studies

    B.  Conclusions of 2008 and 2013 studies for the various scenarios
        evaluated

    C.  Recommendations

II. Introduction -- Jeff Miller

    A.  Purpose of study

        i.  To identify opportunities to mitigate uneconomic
            transmission congestion with focus on inter-RTO, but also
            within RTOs

        ii. To provide policy makers with information concerning
            transmission impacts of various energy policies being
            considered by State and Federal entities

        iii. To identify to generation developers transmission additions
             necessary to deliver specific generation resources to load

    B.  Description of the relationship between the WGA and SSG studies

III. SSG-WI Transmission Planning Process -- Dean Perry

     A.  Goals and objectives of the SSG-WI planning process

         i.  Facilitates competitive and reliable regional power market
             by providing information on what constitutes robust
             transmission system

         ii. Focuses on addressing congestion issues that impact
             marketing of energy between RTOs/ISOs while coordinating
             with individual RTO planning processes and WECC's
             reliability planning processes

         iii. Assumes voluntary participant funding for identified
              project needs

         iv. Specifies time frame for expansion options of 5-15 years in
             the future beyond already committed projects

         v.  Considers the following inputs in producing WI-wide
             long-range expansion scenarios with broad benefits:

             a.  Historical path use

             b.  Future resource/demand scenarios

             c.  Production cost or other method for simulating market

             d.  Expansion plans from 3 RTOs

             e.  Expansion plans from TOs and LSEs

             f.  Subregional (RTO or other subregional forum) planning
                 results

             g.  Inter-RTO expansion plans (developed by SSG-WI and
                 others) to facilitate WI-wide competitive energy market

             h.  Long-term visions/principles for higher level
                 transmission development concepts for western grid

             i.  Resource planning processes

             j.  State, Provincial and Federal energy policies

             k.  Demand-side management/demand response options

         vi. Provides LSEs transmission system implications for various
             generation and load scenarios for use in their (integrated)
             resource planning processes

         vii. Develops a robust Transmission Long Range Plan that
              provides insight and direction for interconnection
              expansion

     B.  Description of the planning process

(Insert Transmission Planning Process Group's expanded outline)

IV. Historic congestion -- Dean Perry

    A.  A path is considered heavily loaded if its use exceeds 75% of
        its OTC (Operating Transfer Capability) over 50% of the time
        (given that transmission capability must be set aside for
        reliability and system performance); this definition is
        different from WGA report (50% of its RTC (Rated Transfer
        Capability) over 50% of the time) Are there any facts that can
        be used to support this assumption?

    B.  Graphs of actual flows on WI paths depicting % of time path flow
        exceeds certain % of OTC

    C.  Descriptions of Transmission projects underway to alleviate some
        of the congestion

V.  Transmission study methodology

    A.  Description of ABB Market Simulator Model -- Kurt Granat/Rich
        Nixon

        i.  Hydro and wind = hard-wired

        ii. Thermal power plants dispatched economically to simulate
            market

        iii. Transmission impacts calculated based on changes from 2008
             WECC Power Flow Study

    B.  Description of model assumptions -- various authors -- see
        schedule

        i.  Simulation of median, high and low hydro

        ii. Evaluation of median, high and low gas prices

        iii. 25% reserve margin = proxy for resource adequacy, but no
             relationship to resource adequacy efforts underway in
             RTO-West and Cal ISO areas (Does WestConnect have resource
             adequacy effort underway?) Right now the 25% reserve margin
             is just an artifact of the assumptions in the 2008 case.
             **Since 25% reserve margin does not appropriately capture
             resource adequacy parameters in NW, the approach for the
             2013 run will be to add sufficient resources to avoid
             unserved load.**

             a.  hydro= nameplate capacity

             b.  wind= 20% of nameplate capacity would be contribution
                 to any reserve margin

        iv. Description of model assumptions compared with expectations
            for WI-wide fully functioning market

            a.  Hydro simulation

            b.  Market simulation

    C.  Reasons for Selecting 2008/2013 simulations for this study

VI. Base case = 2008 simulation

    A.  Generation includes power plants on-line January, 2004 unless
        construction far enough along and contracts in place to ensure
        that plants will be on-line sometime in 2004

    B.  Transmission includes lines that will be energized by 2008 as
        evidenced by construction underway, or all required regulatory
        permits issued

    C.  Gas price = wellhead price + basis and transportation adder for
        WI sub-regions

        i.  Median price = \$3.00/MBTU

        ii. High price = \$4.50/MBTU

        iii. Low price = \$2.00/MBTU

    D.  Cases:

        i.  Median hydro, low gas

        ii. Median hydro, median gas

        iii. Median hydro, high gas

        iv. Low hydro, high gas

        v.  High hydro, low gas

    E.  Results for 5 cases -- Rich Nixon/Kurt Granat

VII. Scenarios and assumptions for 2013 simulation

     A.  Criteria for Generation and Transmission additions

     B.  Gas price assumptions \-- Doug Larson/Cynthia Praul

         i.  Median price = \$3.50/MBTU

         ii. High price = \$5.00/MBTU

         iii. Low price = \$2.50/MBTU

     C.  Demand-side management/demand response scenario modeled as
         demand reduction \-- Doug Larson/Tom Foley

     D.  Gas scenario -- XX MW of new gas, 6400 MW of new wind, XX MW of
         new coal

     E.  Coal scenario -- 6,000 MW of new coal, **6,400 MW of new wind
         generation, xx MW of new gas** -- Jacob Williams

     F.  Renewables scenario - **21,200 MW of wind and XX MW of new gas
         18,400 of new wind - 12,000 MW above base or coal case** \--
         Jayson Antonoff

     G.  Distributed generation modeled as gas close to load center

     H.  Cases for each scenario same as for 2008 simulation

     I.  Results for scenario analyses and associated cases -- Rich
         Nixon/Kurt Granat

VIII. Possible improvements to future studies \-- Dennis Phillips

      A.  Better hydro modeling

      B.  Better market simulation

      C.  More flexibility to perform scenario analyses

      D.  Ability to integrate generation and transmission planning

      E.  **Consistent load modeling assumptions**

      F.  **Improve wind generation modeling**

      G.  **Coordination with local resource plans and IRPs**

IX. Findings, conclusions and recommendations - All

X.  Appendices

    A.  WI Path Flow Study, February, 2003 -- Dean Perry

    B.  Details of generation scenarios and cases in 2008/2013 --
        Generation subgroup (Phil Carver=lead)

    C.  Details of transmission assumptions in 2008/2013 -- Transmission
        Subgroup (Jeff Miller=lead)

**[Attachment X -- Report Schedule]{.underline}**

**DRAFT (5/29/03)**

**SCHEDULE**

# Report of the SSG-WI

**Western Interconnection Transmission Planning Process**

**Technical Study**

+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| # Study Task                       | *            | **Dead | **St   |
|                                    | *Responsible | line** | atus** |
|                                    | Person**     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| **2008 Simulation:**               | Don Davies   |        | Co     |
|                                    |              |        | mplete |
| -   Provide seasonal OTC reports   |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Develop nomogram info for      | Kurt Granat  |        | Co     |
|     model                          |              |        | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Request tx updates for 2008    | Don Davies   |        | Co     |
|     Case                           |              |        | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Finalize list of LMP buses     | Jamie Austin | 5/9/03 | Co     |
|                                    |              |        | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Check generation included in   | Gen Subgroup | 5      | Co     |
|     study                          |              | /16/03 | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Provide Canada hydro           | Phil Park    | 5      | Co     |
|     generation                     |              | /16/03 | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   COMPLETE SIMULATION            | Kurt Granat  | 6      |        |
|                                    |              | /12/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| **2013 Simulation:**               | Gen Subgroup | 6/6/03 |        |
|                                    |              |        |        |
| -   Decision on modeling gen.      |              |        |        |
|     adequ.                         |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Formulate generation scenarios | Gen Subgroup | 6      |        |
|                                    |              | /13/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Develop wind generation        | Jayson       | 6/6/03 |        |
|     assumptions                    | Antonoff     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Update hydro, if necessary     | Mary         | 6      |        |
|                                    | Johannis/    | /13/03 |        |
|                                    |              |        |        |
|                                    | Phil Park    |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Distribute CEC 2013 Tx plan to | Cynthia      | 6/6/03 | #      |
|     group                          | Praul        |        | ### Co |
|                                    |              |        | mplete |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Decide on Tx projects on-line  | Tx Subgroup  | 6      |        |
|                                    |              | /13/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Data for simulation            | Kurt Granat/ | 6      |        |
|                                    | Rich Nixon/  | /20/03 |        |
|                                    | Jamie Austin |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   COMPLETE SIMULATION            | Kurt Granat  | 6      |        |
|                                    |              | /30/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| **Write-ups:**                     | Jeff Miller  | 8/8/03 |        |
|                                    |              |        |        |
| -   Introduction                   |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document model assumptions     | Kurt Granat  | 8/8/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document generation            | Mary         | 8/8/03 |        |
|     assumptions                    | Johannis     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document gen. adeq.            | Mary         | 8/8/03 |        |
|     assumptions & relationship to  | Johannis     |        |        |
|     resource adequacy              |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Hydro modeling assumptions     | Mary         | 8/8/03 |        |
|                                    | Johannis     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Wind modeling assumptions      | Jayson       | 6/2/03 |        |
|                                    | Antonoff     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document Tx addition           | Marv         | 8/8/03 |        |
|     assumptions                    | Landauer     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe SSG-WI Tx planning    | Dean Perry   | 8/8/03 |        |
|     goals & objectives and process |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document Gas Price Forecast    | Doug Larson/ | 6/6/03 | 1^st^  |
|                                    | Cynthia      |        | draft  |
|                                    | Praul        |        | done   |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe relationship of model | Ali          | 8/8/03 |        |
|     market assumptions to actual   | Amarili/Jim  |        |        |
|     market behavior                | Kritikson    |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe modeling of           | Doug Larson/ | 8/8/03 |        |
|     demand-side management &       | Tom Foley    |        |        |
|     distributed generation         |              |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe historic congestion   | Dean Perry   | 8/8/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe future improvements   | Dennis       | 8/8/03 |        |
|                                    | Phillips/    |        |        |
|                                    | Mary         |        |        |
|                                    | Johannis/    |        |        |
|                                    | Others       |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document future wind scenario  | Jayson       | 8/8/03 |        |
|                                    | Antonoff     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Document future coal scenario  | Jacob        | 8/8/03 |        |
|                                    | Williams     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Describe results of 2008/2013  | Kurt Granat/ | 8/8/03 |        |
|     simulations                    | Rich Nixon   |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Executive Summary              | Doug Larson  | 8      |        |
|                                    |              | /19/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   Draft Report to Technical Sup. | Mary         | 8      |        |
|     Grp                            | Johannis     | /22/03 |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+
| -   FINAL DRAFT REPORT             | Mary         | 9/5/03 |        |
|                                    | Johannis     |        |        |
+------------------------------------+--------------+--------+--------+