Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 4/3/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** AS6020

AS6020

**Australia**

**Stone Fruit**

**Annual**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kathleen Wainio, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Australian peach and nectarine production is forecast to remain
unchanged at 110,000 MT through CY 2008. Plum production is also
forecast to remain unchanged through CY 2008 at 34,000 MT. The lack of
an import protocol for Taiwan (for all states except Tasmania and South
Australia) will likely constrain production and exports. Cherry
production and exports remain far more buoyant however, as do cherry
imports.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

Table of Contents

[**SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
3**](#section-one-situation-and-outlook)

[General 3](#general)

[PEACHES 3](#peaches)

[Production 3](#production)

[Exports 3](#exports)

[Consumption 3](#consumption)

[PLUMS 4](#plums)

[Production 4](#production-1)

[Exports 4](#exports-1)

[CHERRIES 4](#cherries)

[Production 4](#production-2)

[Exports 4](#exports-2)

[Imports 4](#imports)

[POLICY 4](#policy)

[Exports 4](#exports-3)

[Imports 5](#imports-1)

[SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES 6](#section-two-statistical-tables)

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

### General

The Australian stone fruit harvest typically runs from December to April
with the bulk of harvest occurring in February and March. The forecast
period for this report begins in January 2006 and runs through the year
beginning January 2008. For the purpose of this report, all fruit
harvested in the lead-up to the commencement of the marketing year will
be included in the following marketing year i.e., fruit harvested in
December 2005 will be included in the year beginning January 2006. For
the year beginning January 2006, harvest remains in progress at time of
writing this report and no national data sets are available for
Australian production of peaches, plums or cherries

Australian stone fruit production has declined in recent years.
Persistent drought conditions have seen new plantings fall temporarily
while some older stone fruit trees were removed. With the exception of
cherries, Post anticipates Australian stone fruit production to remain
flat over the forecast period due to a lack of new plantings coming into
production. Post anticipates production expansion beyond the forecast
period as industry sources suggest new plantings to recommence in
earnest in the long term.

Market access for exported stone fruit has recently become a major focus
for the Australian stone fruit industry. More specifically, the loss of
Taiwan as an export market (for all states except Tasmania and South
Australia) in January 2006 has cast a shadow over both production and
exports of peaches, nectarines and plums.

Post has assumed average weather conditions over the forecast period.
Extreme weather conditions would likely see figures quoted in this
report revised accordingly.

## PEACHES

### Production

Australian peach and nectarine production is projected at 110,000 MT in
CY 2008, unchanged from the estimate of the CY 2006 crop and the
forecast for the CY 2007 crop. Uncertain market access arrangements
combined with reduced new plantings in recent years are expected to
combine to constrain production over the foreseeable future.

The vast majority of production dedicated to processing is believed to
be peaches only, with very few nectarines delivered for processing.
Nectarines are typically considered to be a high value stone fruit for
fresh consumption, while peach production contains particular varieties
suited to, and commonly dedicated to canning.

### Exports

Australian peach and nectarine exports for CY 2008 are forecast at 4,100
MT, up on the previous year but well below levels reached in recent
times. The cessation of exports to Taiwan (with exception to the states
of Tasmania and South Australia) has greatly constrained peach and
nectarine exports for the foreseeable future. In CY 2005 prior to the
cessation of exports to Taiwan, Australian exports of peaches and
nectarines reached 7,353 MT with Taiwan accounting for 46 percent.

### Consumption

Peach and nectarine consumption for CY 2008 is projected at 52,900 MT.
Domestic consumption is expected to ease slightly as exports improve
from historically low levels.

## PLUMS

### Production

Australian plum production (including fresh prunes) for CY 2008 is
projected at 34,000 MT in CY 2008. Uncertainty over export market access
combined with reduced new plantings is likely to see production remain
unchanged over the forecast period.

Industry sources report large declines in production in states which are
particularly reliant on export markets and are not Queensland fruit fly
free such as Western Australia. The exclusion of Australian plums from
Taiwan resulted in price declines and unharvested fruit.

### Exports

Exports are forecast to grow modestly reaching 6,450 MT in CY 2008.
Despite this growth, the projected level remains well below the export
level of 7,467 MT achieved in CY 2005, when 1,120 MT of plums were
exported to Taiwan.

## CHERRIES

### Production

Australian cherry production in CY 2008 is projected to reach 11,000 MT.
Post has assumed average weather conditions in arriving at this
projection. Some industry sources suggest production could be far higher
and have projected levels as high as 15,000 MT. Post's assumption of
average weather conditions includes some below average weather events,
which would likely constrain production to the forecast levels.

The Australian cherry industry has a relatively buoyant outlook despite
suffering poorer weather conditions in recent times. The loss of Taiwan
as an export market has not constrained production of cherries as it has
in other stone fruits.

### Exports

Cherry exports are projected to reach 1,600 MT in CY 2008. Exports are
expected to grow steadily during the forecast period due to increased
production improving the availability of cherries available for export.

### Imports 

Imports of cherries into Australia are projected at 1,500 MT in CY 2008,
an historically high level. The overwhelming majority of imported
cherries in Australia are produced in the USA. California cherries are
commonly imported from mid May to late June while northwest cherries are
commonly imported from mid-June to mid August.

## POLICY

### Exports

The 2006 year began with Australia losing access to the lucrative
Taiwanese export market for stone fruit for all states except Tasmania
and South Australia, which are recognized by Taiwan as free of
Queensland fruit fly, following the expiration of the export protocol.
Australian exports of stone fruit to this destination were valued at
A\$15 million and the closure of this market has caused outrage among
growers in affected states. According to industry sources, Australian
quarantine authorities and industry representatives are currently
developing a new proposal which would address the risk of the Queensland
fruit fly in imports.

### Imports

Biosecurity Australia is currently considering a market access request
from the USA for the importation of stone fruit (nectarines, peaches and
plums) from California and the Pacific North West States (Idaho, Oregon
and Washington) of the USA.

# In March 2006, Biosecurity Australia announced that this access request will be considered as a review of existing biosecurity policy, rather than a new request for access. This will save several steps in import risk assessment (IRA) procedures. (See GAIN Report AS6012 for further information). A draft policy report on the review of policy will be prepared and distributed to stakeholders for comment. 

# SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Fresh Peaches &   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Nectarines        |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 5** | ed** | 6** | te** | 7** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                   | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                   | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                   | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                   | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                   | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                   |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 06** |     | 07** |     | 08** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area Planted**  | 1   | 1950 | 0   | 1975 | 0   | 1990 | *(   |
|                   | 995 |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Harvested**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Bearing Trees** | 2   | 2650 | 0   | 2650 | 0   | 2650 | *(   |
|                   | 627 |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Bearing     | 525 | 250  | 0   | 350  | 0   | 450  | *(   |
| Trees**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Trees**   | 3   | 2900 | 0   | 3000 | 0   | 3100 | *(   |
|                   | 152 |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Commercial      | 140 | 11   | 0   | 11   | 0   | 11   | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 0000 |     | 0000 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Comm.       | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Production**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 140 | 11   | 0   | 11   | 0   | 11   | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 0000 |     | 0000 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports** | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 140 | 11   | 0   | 11   | 0   | 11   | *(   |
|                   | 000 | 0000 |     | 0000 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic Fresh  | 67  | 5    | 0   | 5    | 0   | 5    | *(   |
| Consump**         | 328 | 5063 |     | 4000 |     | 2900 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Exports, Fresh  | 5   | 3937 | 0   | 4000 | 0   | 4100 | *(   |
| Only**            | 672 |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **For             | 67  | 5    | 0   | 5    | 0   | 5    | *(   |
| Processing**      | 000 | 1000 |     | 2000 |     | 3000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Withdrawal From | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Market**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 140 | 11   | 0   | 11   | 0   | 11   | *(   |
| UTILIZATION**     | 000 | 0000 |     | 0000 |     | 0000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Fresh Plums &     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Prunes            |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                   | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                   | 5** | ed** | 6** | te** | 7** | st** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                   | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                   | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                   | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                   | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                   | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                   | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                   | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                   |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year     |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**           |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | MM/Y |
|                   |     | 06** |     | 07** |     | 08** | YYY* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area Planted**  | 1   | 1235 | 0   | 1235 | 0   | 1235 | *(   |
|                   | 266 |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area            | 1   | 1200 | 0   | 1200 | 0   | 1200 | *(   |
| Harvested**       | 266 |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Bearing Trees** | 1   | 1544 | 0   | 1550 | 0   | 1550 | *(   |
|                   | 583 |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Bearing     | 1   | 900  | 0   | 1200 | 0   | 1700 | *(   |
| Trees**           | 741 |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Trees**   | 3   | 2444 | 0   | 2750 | 0   | 3250 | *(   |
|                   | 324 |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | TRE  |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | ES)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Commercial      | 37  | 3    | 0   | 3    | 0   | 3    | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 4000 |     | 4000 |     | 4000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Non-Comm.       | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Production**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 37  | 3    | 0   | 3    | 0   | 3    | *(   |
| Production**      | 000 | 4000 |     | 4000 |     | 4000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports** | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
|                   |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**  | 37  | 3    | 0   | 3    | 0   | 3    | *(   |
|                   | 000 | 4000 |     | 4000 |     | 4000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic Fresh  | 25  | 2    | 0   | 2    | 0   | 2    | *(   |
| Consump**         | 760 | 2650 |     | 2600 |     | 2550 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Exports, Fresh  | 6   | 6350 | 0   | 6400 | 0   | 6450 | *(   |
| Only**            | 240 |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **For             | 5   | 5000 | 0   | 5000 | 0   | 5000 | *(   |
| Processing**      | 000 |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Withdrawal From | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Market**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL           | 37  | 3    | 0   | 3    | 0   | 3    | *(   |
| UTILIZATION**     | 000 | 4000 |     | 4000 |     | 4000 | MT)* |
+-------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **PSD Table**      |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
| Fresh              |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
| Che                |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
| rries,(Sweet&Sour) |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
|                    | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *UOM* |
|                    | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca |       |
|                    | 5** | ed** | 6** | te** | 7** | st** |       |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
|                    | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |       |
|                    | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |       |
|                    | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |       |
|                    | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |       |
|                    | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |       |
|                    | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |       |
|                    | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |       |
|                    | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |       |
|                    |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |       |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Market Year      |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *MM/  |
| Begin**            |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | YYYY* |
|                    |     | 06** |     | 07** |     | 08** |       |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Area Planted**   | 1   | 1066 | 0   | 1092 | 0   | 1140 | *     |
|                    | 092 |      |     |      |     |      | (HA)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Area Harvested** | 993 | 969  | 0   | 993  | 0   | 999  | *     |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | (HA)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Bearing Trees**  | 1   | 1938 | 0   | 1987 | 0   | 2000 | *     |
|                    | 987 |      |     |      |     |      | (1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | TR    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | EES)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Non-Bearing      | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *     |
| Trees**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | (1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | TR    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | EES)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Total Trees**    | 1   | 1938 | 0   | 1987 | 0   | 2000 | *     |
|                    | 987 |      |     |      |     |      | (1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | TR    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | EES)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Commercial       | 9   | 9000 | 0   | 1    | 0   | 1    | *     |
| Production**       | 000 |      |     | 0000 |     | 1000 | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Non-Comm.        | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *     |
| Production**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL            | 9   | 9000 | 0   | 1    | 0   | 1    | *     |
| Production**       | 000 |      |     | 0000 |     | 1000 | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL Imports**  | 1   | 1500 | 0   | 1500 | 0   | 1500 | *     |
|                    | 672 |      |     |      |     |      | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**   | 10  | 1    | 0   | 1    | 0   | 1    | *     |
|                    | 672 | 0500 |     | 1500 |     | 2500 | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Domestic Fresh   | 9   | 9000 | 0   | 9950 | 0   | 1    | *     |
| Consump**          | 178 |      |     |      |     | 0900 | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Exports, Fresh   | 1   | 1500 | 0   | 1550 | 0   | 1600 | *     |
| Only**             | 494 |      |     |      |     |      | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **For Processing** | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *     |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Withdrawal From  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *     |
| Market**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL            | 10  | 1    | 0   | 1    | 0   | 1    | *     |
| UTILIZATION**      | 672 | 0500 |     | 1500 |     | 2500 | (MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+

## 

#