Required Report - Public distribution

**Date:** 3/10/2009

**GAIN Report Number:** EG9002

EG9002

**Egypt**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2009**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Peter Kurz

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Cynthia I.Guven & Sherif Ibrahim

**Report Highlights:**

Planted area for wheat in 2008/09 is forecast to decrease slightly from
the previous year\'s level as a result of the decrease in wheat prices.
The Russian market share in the Egyptian wheat market increased, while
the U.S. market share decreased. With 76 percent market share, the U.S
continues to dominate the Egyptian corn market. As of February 21, 2009,
the Ministry of Trade and Industry removed the ban on rice exports.
Egypt\'s total rice exports between February 21 and the end of July 2009
are expected to be 250,000 MT.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Cairo \[EG1\]

\[EG\]

Table of Contents

[WHEAT 3](#wheat)

[PS&D 3](#psd-1)

[Production 3](#production)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Trade 4](#trade)

[Stock 5](#stocks)

[CORN 6](#corn)

[PS&D 6](#psd-2)

[Production 6](#production-1)

[Consumption 6](#consumption-1)

[Trade 7](#trade-1)

[RICE 8](#rice)

[PS&D 8](#psd-3)

[Production 8](#production-2)

[Consumption and Stocks 8](#consumption-and-stocks)

[Trade 9](#trade-2)

[Export Policy 9](#export-policy)

# WHEAT

## PS&D {#psd-1}

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 15%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 14%" />
<col style="width: 3%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><p><strong>Wheat</strong></p>
<p><strong>Egypt</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td><strong>2007/2008</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>2008/2009</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>2009/2010</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jul 2007</strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jul 2008</strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jul 2009</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>New Post</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>New Post</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>Jan</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td>1,287</td>
<td>1,287</td>
<td>1,287</td>
<td>1,290</td>
<td>1,288</td>
<td>1,226</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>1,223</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td>4,120</td>
<td>4,120</td>
<td>4,120</td>
<td>4,135</td>
<td>4,128</td>
<td>4,128</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>4,345</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Production</td>
<td>8,275</td>
<td>8,275</td>
<td>8,275</td>
<td>8,300</td>
<td>8,277</td>
<td>7,883</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>7,864</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MY Imports</td>
<td>7,700</td>
<td>7,528</td>
<td>8,310</td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>7,540</td>
<td>8,320</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>8,325</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Imports</td>
<td>7,700</td>
<td>7,528</td>
<td>8,310</td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>7,540</td>
<td>8,320</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>8,325</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Imp. from U.S.</td>
<td>2,839</td>
<td>2,404</td>
<td>2,404</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2,350</td>
<td>2,350</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>2,360</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Supply</td>
<td>20,095</td>
<td>19,923</td>
<td>20,705</td>
<td>20,235</td>
<td>19,945</td>
<td>20,331</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>20,534</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MY Exports</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>16</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Exports</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>16</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Feed Consumption</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>70</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>FSI Consumption</td>
<td>15,900</td>
<td>15,720</td>
<td>16,502</td>
<td>16,000</td>
<td>15,870</td>
<td>15,900</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>15,864</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Consumption</td>
<td>15,950</td>
<td>15,780</td>
<td>16,562</td>
<td>16,050</td>
<td>15,930</td>
<td>15,970</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>15,934</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td>4,135</td>
<td>4,128</td>
<td>4,128</td>
<td>4,175</td>
<td>4,000</td>
<td>4,345</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>4,585</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Distribution</td>
<td>20,095</td>
<td>19,923</td>
<td>20,705</td>
<td>20,235</td>
<td>19,945</td>
<td>20,331</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>20,534</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

## Production

Wheat is planted in October/November and harvested in April/May. The
total wheat area for MY 2007/2008 was 1.29 MHA, a small increase over MY
2006/07. For MY 2008/2009, Ministry of Agriculture experts forecast that
planted area will decrease slightly from the 2007/08 level as a result
of the decrease in wheat prices. Total production for MY 2007/2008 was
8.3 MMT or about the same as 2006/2007 level. The government has not
announced the procurement price yet for the 2008/09 crop. According to
government experts, it is expected to be around LE 1,800 per MT (\$327),
which is down from LE 2,533 per MT (\$460 per MT) in 2007/08. As a
comparison, the current landed price for Russian wheat is about \$172
per MT compared to \$432 per MT in February 2008. The expected decrease
in the government procurement price for wheat may reflect a bit
negatively on wheat area in 2009/10.

The Egyptian milling industry has more than adequate capacity to cover
the country's need for 72 percent extraction flour. While total
consumption of 72 percent extracted flour is estimated at 1.8 million
tons or 2.5 million tons of wheat, total milling capacity is estimated
at 2.7 million tons of 72 percent flour, or 3.76 million tons of wheat.
The public sector milling industry consists of 126 mills (mostly small
or medium size) and has a total capacity of approximately 7 million tons
per year. There are seven public sector companies that operate these
mills, and all are affiliated with one holding company (Food Industries
Holding Company). Of the 126 public sector mills, 109 mills are
currently used for the production of 82 percent flour and 7 mills are
used to produce 72 percent flour with total capacity of 6,230 tons per
day (1.86 million tons annually). Shares in some of these companies have
been sold to private investors over the past few years. Although the
majority of shares are held by the private sector, the holding company
maintains complete control of these mills. Given that wheat is a
strategic commodity in Egypt, the government is expected to retain
control of most of the milling industry (particularly for the subsidized
baladi bread). There are nearly 36 private sector commercial mills, with
total capacity of 9,000 tons per day (2.8 million tons annually). These
are permitted to produce 72 percent flour only. However, some private
sector mills obtained approval to mill 82 percent flour for the
government for a fee.

## Consumption

## 

Egypt continues to have one of the highest wheat per capita consumption
levels in the world.

Total consumption of wheat is forecast to be 16.5 and 15.9 million MT in
2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. Since the beginning of MY 2008/09
(July 2008) through the end of February 2009, the Ministry of Supply
(GASC) purchased 4.5 MMT of imported wheat to produce 82 percent
extraction flour used for the subsidized baladi bread. This represents
about 1 MMT less quantity than was imported during the same period last
year. This decrease in imports by GASC is mainly due to the increased
purchases from local production. The total subsidy on baladi bread in MY
2007/08 is estimated at LE 9 billion. During the same period, private
sector companies purchased 2 MMT of imported wheat to produce 72 percent
extraction flour used in the production of high quality flat bread and
European type bread, pastries and pasta. Most of the domestic wheat crop
is sold directly to consumers or retained by farmers for on-farm
consumption.

The total quantity of locally produced wheat sold to the Ministry of
Industry and Foreign Trade in 2007/08 was 2.5 million MT, compared to
1.7 million MT in 2006/07. This increase in GASC purchasing quantity
results from the higher price offered to farmers by the government. The
General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has a target to purchase
3.5 million MT this year. Most observers suspect that GASC will once
again not achieve its target since the private sector will continue to
offer higher prices to the farmers. The balance of locally produced
wheat either goes directly to consumers or is retained by farmers for
on-farm consumption. Egyptian per capita consumption of wheat in MY
2007/2008 is expected to reach 195 kg.

## Trade

Egypt's total wheat imports are expected to increase during this
marketing year (2008/09).

Russia continues to be the largest wheat supplier to the Egyptian
market. From the beginning of MY 2008/09 through the end of February
2009, Russian exports accounted for 54 percent or about 3 MMT of
Egyptian wheat imports. U.S. market share decreased in 2008/09 from the
previous year; U.S. market share continues to lag well below levels of a
few years ago. From the beginning of MY 2008/09 through the end of
February 2009, U.S. exports accounted for 29 percent or about1.5 MMT of
wheat imports; the remainder was imported from Ukraine and Canada. It is
expected that U.S. wheat exports to the Egyptian market will increase
through the end of MY 2008/09 since GASC is no longer purchasing locally
from the private sector importers. GASC is only buying through
international tenders. Although the ban on rice exports has been lifted,
the Egyptian Syrian barter deal currently remains suspended. Most
private sector wheat traders import small cargoes from the Black Sea
area. In its last tender, dated February 22, 2009, the Ministry of
Supply purchased 180,000 MT of wheat from Russia at a reported price of
\$172 per MT/FOB.

For MY 2009/2010, Egyptian wheat imports are expected to reach 8.3 MMT,
with GASC projected to import nearly 6 MMT, and the rest to be imported
by the private sector. This increase in GASC imports is expected because
of the increased amount of wheat necessary for the production of 82
percent flour. Customs duties for wheat and corn are one percent plus
two percent for other port charges.

Due to competition from other suppliers, notably Russia, the U.S. market
share has declined in recent years. Nonetheless, both government and
private sector buyers prefer U.S. wheat. However, due to prevailing
market conditions, namely higher prices and freight for U.S. wheat, GASC
and Egyptian milling companies will likely continue to purchase lower
quality wheat. Both sectors are now sourcing more wheat from non-U.S.
origins such as Russia and Ukraine.

U.S. Wheat Associates continues to provide trade servicing and quality
seminars to Egyptian millers, wheat buyers, and traders. Although the
USDA GSM‑102 program is available for both public and private sector
importers of U.S. agricultural commodities, importers have not used the
program in several years, citing the potential for exchange rate risk in
the Egyptian market. In addition, Egyptian banks do not pass along
benefits to importers.

+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| **Import Trade    |              |                   |              |
| Matrix**          |              |                   |              |
|                   |              |                   |              |
| Egypt             |              |                   |              |
|                   |              |                   |              |
| Wheat             |              |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Time Period       | MY 2006/07   | Units:            | My 2007/08   |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Imports for:      |              |                   | **1**        |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| U.S.              | 2,405        | U.S.              | 2,840        |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others            |              | Others            |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Russia            | 2,796        | Russia            | 3,655        |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Canada            | 602          | Canada            | 188          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| France            | 423          | France            | 200          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Kazakhstan        | 420          | Kazakhstan        | 860          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Ukraine           | 319          | Ukraine           | 530          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Australia         | 188          | Syria             | 37           |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Syria             | 178          |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Romania           | 96           |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Bulgaria          | 46           |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                   |              |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others  | 5068         |                   | 5470         |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed |              |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total       | 7473         |                   | 8310         |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+

## Stocks?

The Ministry of Supply and Domestic Trade tries to maintain five months
supply of strategic stocks. However, due to limited storage capacity
that constrains the government from reaching this target, the strategic
stocks are now redefined to include wheat import purchases in the
pipeline, and usually amount to in the range of three months of annual
consumption. Currently, total covered storage capacity for wheat is
estimated at one million metric tons, including about 350,000 tons in
silos at three different ports, 250,000 tons in inland silos and 400,000
tons in open storage, mostly in metropolitan areas. In addition to
government storage facilities, several private sector traders and mills
currently have their own receiving and storage facilities, estimated at
500,000 tons. In order to increase the storage capacity, the Ministry of
Supply is currently promoting a project to encourage the private sector
to build 50 inland silos each with 30,000 tons capacity in different
locations throughout the country. The Ministry of Social Welfare will
commit to using 60 percent of the capacity of each silo's capacity at
the prevailing storage fee for five years.

# CORN

## PS&D {#psd-2}

  -------------- --------------- -------- ---------- --------------- -------- ---------- --------------- -- ----------
  **Corn Egypt** **2007**                            **2008**                            **2009**           

                 **2007/2008**                       **2008/2009**                       **2009/2010**      

                 **Market Year                       **Market Year                       **Market Year      
                 Begin: Oct                          Begin: Oct                          Begin: Oct         
                 2007**                              2008**                              2009**             

                 **Annual Data            **New      **Annual Data            **New      **Annual Data      **Jan**
                 Displayed**              Post**     Displayed**              Post**     Displayed**        

                                          **Data**                            **Data**                      **Data**

  Area Harvested 720             720      720        725             725      730                           735

  Beginning      920             670      670        845             665      593                           442
  Stocks                                                                                                    

  Production     6,174           6,174    6,174      6,175           6,175    6,217                         6,260

  MY Imports     4,151           4,220    4,148      4,000           4,100    4,200                         4,220

  TY Imports     4,151           4,220    4,148      4,000           4,100    4,200                         4,220

  TY Imp. from   2,971           0        3,153      0               0        3,180                         3,200
  U.S.                                                                                                      

  Total Supply   11,245          11,064   10,992     11,020          10,940   11,010                        10,922

  MY Exports     0               0        0          0               0        0                             0

  TY Exports     0               0        0          0               0        0                             0

  Feed           8,300           8,299    8,299      8,000           8,090    8,250                         8,300
  Consumption                                                                                               

  FSI            2,100           2,100    2,100      2,300           2,300    2,318                         2,320
  Consumption                                                                                               

  Total          10,400          10,399   10,399     10,300          10,390   10,568                        10,620
  Consumption                                                                                               

  Ending Stocks  845             665      593        720             550      442                           302

  Total          11,245          11,064   10,992     11,020          10,940   11,010                        10,922
  Distribution                                                                                              
  -------------- --------------- -------- ---------- --------------- -------- ---------- --------------- -- ----------

## Production

The total corn area for MY 2008/2009 is estimated at 730,000 HA,
slightly increased from the 2007/2008 level. The small increase in corn
acreage is attributed to increasing demand in for corn silage as cheap
feed for livestock. For the same reason, a further increase in corn
acreage is expected in MY 2009/2010. The same factor is expected to lead
farmers to switch from cotton to corn. In MY 2008/2009, total corn
production is estimated at about 6.2 MMT. For MY 2009/2010, total corn
production is expected to increase and reach 6.26 MMT.

## Consumption 

While total corn consumption did not change during the last two MY's,
corn consumption for feed in MY 2008/09 decreased slightly and is
expected to start to bounce back in MY 2009/10. In 2008/09 corn feed
consumption is estimated at about 8.25 MMT, compared to 8.29 MMT in the
previous year. The majority of the local corn crop is utilized for
animal feed (mostly consumed on farm) and about 1.5 million tons is used
for food purposes (either milled or consumed fresh). Large commercial
end-users and feed mills rely on imported yellow corn to meet their
requirements.

Corn use in feed is forecast to increase in 2009/10 and reach 8.3 MMT as
the poultry industry situation improves from the outbreak of Avian
Influenza (AI), which began in February 2006 and was followed by a
severe temporary reduction in poultry output in 2006. In addition, there
has been increased utilization of corn in the production of 20:80
corn-wheat composite flour for baladi bread. In 2008/09, about 550,000
tons of locally produced white corn are expected to be delivered to the
Ministry of Social Welfare for the production of subsidized baladi
bread. In 2009/10, total white corn delivery is expected to reach
600,000 tons. In addition, there is a small, but growing demand for food
products containing corn (snack foods) and corn oil.

## Trade

Total corn imports for 2008/09 are expected to increase due to the
increased demand in both the poultry and livestock sectors. Total corn
imports since the beginning of MY 2008/09 (October 2008) until the end
of January 2009 are estimated at 823,634 MT compared to 782,921 MT in
the previous year. With 76 percent market share, the U.S continues to
dominate the Egyptian corn market. The U.S. market share in 2007/08
accounted for 76 percent. Argentina's market share has increased to 24
percent versus 16 percent in MY 2006/07. However, the U.S market share
is expected to recover in MY 2008/09, and accounted for 80 percent as of
the end of December 2008. A further increase in corn imports is expected
in MY 2009/10. Competition from Argentina and other suppliers of yellow
corn should remain modest in MY 2009/10 as the price gap between the
U.S. and other suppliers is expected to be marginal.

**Stocks**

Since both imported and locally produced corn just about covers the
requirements for human consumption and animal feed, Egypt does not
maintain any corn stocks.

+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| **Import Trade    |              |                   |              |
| Matrix**          |              |                   |              |
|                   |              |                   |              |
| Corn              |              |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Time Period       | MY2006/07    | Units:            | MY2007/08    |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Imports for:      |              |                   | **1**        |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| U.S.              | 3,198        | U.S.              | 3,152        |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others            |              | Others            |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Argentina         | 689          | Argentina         | 985          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Ukraine           | 170          | Brazil            | 10           |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| New Zealand       | 70           |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others  | 929          |                   | 995          |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed |              |                   |              |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total       | 4127         |                   | 4147         |
+-------------------+--------------+-------------------+--------------+

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# 

# RICE

## PS&D {#psd-3}

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 16%" />
<col style="width: 12%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 12%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 14%" />
<col style="width: 3%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><p><strong>Rice, Milled</strong></p>
<p><strong>Egypt</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td><strong>2007/2008</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>2008/2009</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>2009/2010</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jan 2008</strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jan 2009</strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong>Market Year Begin: Jan 2009</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>New Post</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>New Post</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Annual Data Displayed</strong></td>
<td><strong>Jan</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Data</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td>670</td>
<td>670</td>
<td>670</td>
<td>672</td>
<td>672</td>
<td>672</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>670</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td>370</td>
<td>370</td>
<td>370</td>
<td>665</td>
<td>485</td>
<td>635</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>742</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Milled Production</td>
<td>4,385</td>
<td>4,385</td>
<td>4,385</td>
<td>4,387</td>
<td>4,387</td>
<td>4,387</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>4,374</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Rough Production</td>
<td>6,746</td>
<td>6,746</td>
<td>6,746</td>
<td>6,749</td>
<td>6,749</td>
<td>6,749</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>6,729</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Milling Rate (.9999)</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td>6,500</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>6,500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MY Imports</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Imports</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Imp. from U.S.</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Supply</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>5,072</td>
<td>4,892</td>
<td>5,042</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>5,136</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MY Exports</td>
<td>450</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>800</td>
<td>947</td>
<td>300</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>900</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Exports</td>
<td>450</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>800</td>
<td>950</td>
<td>300</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>900</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Consumption</td>
<td>3,660</td>
<td>3,390</td>
<td>3,390</td>
<td>3,625</td>
<td>3,400</td>
<td>4,000</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>3,680</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td>665</td>
<td>485</td>
<td>635</td>
<td>647</td>
<td>545</td>
<td>742</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>556</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Distribution</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>4,775</td>
<td>5,072</td>
<td>4,892</td>
<td>5,042</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>5,136</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

## Production

Rice is a major summer crop in Egypt, occupying 10 percent of Egypt's
total crop area. The entire rice crop is irrigated. Rice requires a
special irrigation regime and its cultivation is largely restricted to
the northern part of the Delta. It is often planted on reclaimed land
where the soil is fairly saline and has varying degrees of productivity.
A limited amount of rice is also grown in the middle Delta and in Upper
Egypt. Farmers normally exceed the area targeted by the government for
rice cultivation despite the prospect of fines (LE 600/ feddan) for
those who violate their targeted areas. This is due to much higher
profitability of rice cultivation compared to other traditional summer
crops (i.e. corn and cotton). As a result, both area and production for
2009/10 are expected to remain at current levels, 670,000 HA and about
4.4 MMT, respectively.

## Consumption and Stocks

Egypt consumes medium grain rice and rice consumption is relatively
constant, as consumers continue to prefer wheat-based products. There is
no stock-holding policy, with levels reflecting pipeline supplies.
Buyers tend to avoid holding stocks and push them to the export market.

## Trade

Egypt is a net rice exporter. Small quantities of high quality
name-brand rice are imported by up-scale supermarkets. Rice exports were
750,000 MT during MY 2007/08, much lower than normal levels, such as the
1.2 MMT exported the previous year in MY 2006/07. Although there was a
ban in place, exports from September 15, 2008, (the beginning of the
rice export marketing year) through the end of January 2009 did occur
under an Egyptian-Jordanian government to government agreement. Egypt's
rice exports to Jordan during that time are estimated at only 10,000 MT.
Besides Jordan, there were also G to G deals with Sudan during the time
of the ban.  Those exports to Sudan are estimated at 6,000 tons.  There
were also about 58 tons to Eritrea.   However, with this new decree
lifting the ban (see details below), rice exporters expect that exports
for 2008/09 can reach 250,000 MT through the end of MY 2008/09. For
2009/10, exports are expected to recover and are forecast at 900,000 MT.
This rapid recovery of Egyptian rice exports will be mainly due to the
severe shortage in world rice supply due to the small production in both
Italy and Spain coupled with the severe drought in Australia. The
situation in Vietnam and Thailand were was also a contributing factor to
the world supply shortage.

### Export Policy

On February 4, 2009, the Minister of Trade and Industry issued a decree
which removed the ban on rice exports as of February 21, 2009. This
decree (no.105) permits Egyptian rice to be exported provided that the
exporter delivers through a tender an amount equal to the exported
amount to the Government of Egypt the same amount of the exported rice
to the Government of Egypt and pays the government LE 1,000 per MT in
export taxes.

The removal of the export ban occurred much earlier than expected. The
ban, which began on April 1, 2008, as a result of the sharp increase in
rough rice prices, was expected to end on April 1, 2009. At the time the
ban was implemented, rough rice prices had reached about \$430 per ton,
compared to about \$200 at the beginning of the export season in October
2007. Similarly, export prices for milled rice jumped from \$450/ton to
\$750/ton. The decision to suspend exports had an immediate impact on
prices, with rough rice prices dropping almost \$100 per ton to \$330 on
the local market. This ban forced many countries in the region to source
rice from other countries, mainly from the U. S.

As of February 22, 2009, the government purchased 128,000 MT of Egyptian
rice through two tenders. Rice exporters sold the rice to the government
at a reported price of between \$55 and \$215 per MT. However, no
exports have taken place yet.

+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| **Export Trade        |            |                  |            |
| Matrix**              |            |                  |            |
|                       |            |                  |            |
| Egypt                 |            |                  |            |
|                       |            |                  |            |
| Rice, Milled          |            |                  |            |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Time Period           | 2006/07    |                  | 2007/08    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Exports for:          |            | Units:           | **1**      |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| U.S.                  |            | U.S.             | 172        |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Others                |            | Others           |            |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Syria                 | 215,104    | Syria            | 130,509    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Libya                 | 179,386    | Libya            | 98,320     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Turkey                | 139,912    | Turkey           | 109,116    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Jordan                | 194,430    | Bulgiem          | 30,900     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Saudi-Arabia          | 61,744     | Sudan            | 49,905     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Sudan                 | 56,377     | Ukraine          | 29,671     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| U A E                 | 35,486     | Saudi-Arabia     | 21,519     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Ukraine               | 27,517     | Jordan           | 20,664     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Romania               | 26,770     | Lebanon          | 15,778     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Singapore             | 37,716     | Romania          | 26,345     |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Total for Others      | 97,4442    |                  | 511,056    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Others not Listed     | 257,203    |                  | 238,772    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+
| Grand Total           | 1231645    |                  | 750,000    |
+-----------------------+------------+------------------+------------+