""

Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/27/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** GM3029

GM3029

**Germany**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Annual**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Karina Ramos

#### U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Sabine M. Lieberz

**Report Highlights:**

For CY 2003, German commercial apple production is forecast at 867,000
MT up 14 percent from the very small crop of the previous CY.
Non-commercial apple production is forecast at 600,000 MT, and pear
production at 60,000 MT. Final apple and pear production might be lower
than forecast due to the ongoing drought. Production of concentrated
apple juice (CAJ, 70.5 brix) is forecast at 58,500 MT in MY 2003/2004.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Berlin \[GM1\]

\[GM\]

Table of Contents

[Production 3](#production)

[Apple Production 3](#apple-production)

[Table 1: Commercial Apple Production in Germany by Variety and Year
3](#table-1-commercial-apple-production-in-germany-by-variety-and-year)

[Pear Production 4](#pear-production)

[Concentrated Apple Juice (CAJ) Production
4](#concentrated-apple-juice-caj-production)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Table 2: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit in Germany
5](#table-2-per-capita-consumption-of-fresh-fruit-in-germany)

[Apple Consumption 5](#apple-consumption)

[Pear Consumption 5](#pear-consumption)

[Consumption of CAJ 5](#consumption-of-caj)

[Table 3: Per Capita Consumption of Fruit Juices/Nectars in European
Countries and the USA (in liters)
6](#table-3-per-capita-consumption-of-fruit-juicesnectars-in-european-countries-and-the-usa-in-liters)

[Table 4: Per Capita Consumption of Apple Juice/Apple Fruit Drinks and
Citrus juice/Citrus Fruit Drinks in Germany (in kg)
6](#table-4-per-capita-consumption-of-apple-juiceapple-fruit-drinks-and-citrus-juicecitrus-fruit-drinks-in-germany-in-kg)

[Trade 7](#trade)

[Apple Trade 7](#apple-trade)

[Pear Trade 7](#pear-trade)

[CAJ Trade 7](#caj-trade)

[Policy 8](#policy)

[Related Reports 8](#related-reports)

[Statistical Section 9](#statistical-section)

[Table 5: PSD for Fresh Apples (in MT)
9](#table-5-psd-for-fresh-apples-in-ha-1000-trees-mt)

[Table 6: PSD for Fresh Pears (in MT)
10](#table-6-psd-for-fresh-pears-in-ha-1000-trees-mt)

[Table 7: PSD for CAJ converted to 70.5 Brix (in MT)
11](#table-7-psd-for-caj-converted-to-70.5-brix-in-mt)

# 

# Production

## Apple Production

Germany is the third largest apple producer in the EU, after Italy and
France. In mid-July German apple production for CY 2003 was estimated at
867,000 MT for commercial production. This is an increase of 14 percent
but last year's crop was very small (762,800 MT), so production is still
10 percent below the 1999 -- 2002 average.

German authorities stopped issuing official figures for non-commercial
production (private gardens and meadows) in 1992. However, industry
estimates CY 2003 non-commercial production at approximately 600,000 MT,
down 25 percent from approximately 800,000 MT in CY 2002.

Due to the ongoing drought, the actual crop for both commercial and
non-commercial production is expected to be below this forecast. How
much below depends on if, and when, it finally rains again.

Reliable official data for area and tree numbers is only available every
five years. In the in-between years, figures are estimated. Hence, the
large difference between USDA official and FAS/Berlin estimates for 2002
area and tree numbers. The 2002 tree census for commercial fruit trees
showed a decline in acreage but an increase in tree numbers for Germany.
The reduction in acreage is a result of the low profitability of apple
production in Germany in recent years, while the increase in tree
numbers is a result of a higher percentage of modern plantations with
more but smaller trees, which reach full production capacity much
earlier and are easier to harvest. For details on the tree census
results, please refer to GAIN report GM3025.

The fruit quality of commercial fruit is good. So far, there is less
hail damage than last year. Scab and russeting has been found in only a
few orchards. However, in regions that were hit by late frosts in April,
a notable share of apples of the \"Jonagold\" variety show frost rings.
The average fruit diameter is smaller than in CY 2002, especially in the
middle (Rhine region) and East (Saxony) regions of Germany.

## Table 1: Commercial Apple Production in Germany by Variety and Year

+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Variety      | CY     | CY     | CY     | CY     | CY     | Ch   |
|              | 1999   | 2000   | 2001   | 2002   | 2003\* | ange |
|              |        |        |        |        |        |      |
|              | (1000  | (1000  | (1000  | (1000  | (1000  | (%)  |
|              | MT)    | MT)    | MT)    | MT)    | MT)    |      |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Jonagold     | 198    | 210    | 148    | 150    | 167    | 11.3 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Elstar       | 149    | 156    | 139    | 120    | 131    | 9.2  |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Jonagored    | 78     | 96     | 93     | 70     | 76     | 8.6  |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Golden       | 73     | 77     | 66     | 59     | 60     | 1.7  |
| Delicious    |        |        |        |        |        |      |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Gloster      | 87     | 81     | 66     | 40     | 60     | 50.0 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Idared       | 60     | 70     | 59     | 50     | 55     | 10.0 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Boskoop      | 96     | 87     | 68     | 44     | 54     | 22.7 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Cox Orange   | 65     | 57     | 54     | 24     | 44     | 83.3 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Gala         | 24     | 29     | 28     | 33     | 39     | 18.2 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Braeburn     | 8      | 17     | 16     | 14     | 20     | 42.9 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Other \*\*   | 199    | 251    | 186    | 159    | 161    | 1.3  |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+
| Total        | 1,036  | 1,131  | 922    | 763    | 867    | 13.6 |
+--------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------+

\* Forecast.

\*\* Includes Gravensteiner, James Grieve, Glockenapfel, Ingrid Marie

Source: Prognosfruit Colloquium 2003, Cologne

Non-commercial production includes apples grown in house gardens and
extensive production in meadows. Typically, non-commercial production is
used for fresh consumption, must and spirit production, baking (cakes,
tarts) or preserved foods (canned, dried, cooked). Approximately 50
percent of this production is grown in house gardens and is consumed by
private households; 40 percent is comprised of must apples used in apple
juice production; and the remaining 10 percent is processed into
spirits. These percentages may vary depending on the price for must
apples.

## Pear Production

The large difference between USDA official and Post estimate for 2002
pear area and pear tree numbers follows the same logic as that for
apples.

While Germany is the third largest apple producer in the EU, for pears,
Germany only ranks at number 7. Commercial pear production in CY 2003 is
estimated at 60,000 MT. The official final number from the German
Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food, and Agriculture (BMVEL)
for the German pear production in CY 2002 is 76,139 MT. This would mean
an increase of yield per tree of almost 50 percent compared to CY 2001,
which FAS/Berlin considers this number to be unrealistic. Data of the
German Central Market- and Price Reporting Agency (ZMP) seems to be
closer to reality. They estimate the CY 2002 pear crop at 64,000 MT.
Production in CY 2001 was 46,823 MT.

No reliable data for non-commercial pear production is available. Also,
only small quantities of non-commercial pear production enter the pear
market; most are consumed directly by households or on farms either as
fresh or processed fruit. Therefore, FAS/Berlin does not enter any data
for the non-commercial pear crop into the PSD table. The three most
important pear varieties grown in Germany are Alexander Lucas, Williams
Christ (Bartlett), and Conference.

## Concentrated Apple Juice (CAJ) Production

The total volume of apple juice concentrate (70.5 degrees brix) pressed
from domestic and imported must or diverted table apples amounted to
75,300 MT in MY 2002/03, versus 63,000 MT the previous year. This
increase of 20 percent can be attributed to the higher non-commercial
apple crop of 800,000 MT in CY 2002. For MY 2003/04, CAJ production is
estimated at 70,000 MT due to the lower non-commercial apple crop of
600,000 MT in CY 2003.

German must apples, and to a small extent domestic table apples, form
the basis of apple juice production in Germany, especially since German
must apples provide the quality (acid content) and price required by the
German apple juice processors. For MY 2000/01, 2001/02, and 2002/03,
1.108 million MT, 544,000 MT, and 650,000 MT of apples entered juice
production, respectively. For MY 2003/04, the number of must apples
processed into apple juice is expected drop to approximately 500,000 MT.

## 

# Consumption

Apples are by far the most popular fresh fruit in Germany, even more so
than bananas. Per capita consumption of apples shows a large variation,
depending on the non-commercial crop. Pears rank number 5 in popularity
with German consumers.

## Table 2: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit in Germany

+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                    | MY    | MY    | MY    | MY    | MY    | MY    |
|                    | 19    | 19    | 19    | 19    | 20    | 20    |
|                    | 96/97 | 97/98 | 98/99 | 99/00 | 00/01 | 01/02 |
|                    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|                    | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|                    | kg/pe | kg/pe | kg/pe | kg/pe | kg/pe | kg/pe |
|                    | rson) | rson) | rson) | rson) | rson) | rson) |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Apples (total)     | 30.5  | 27.2  | 31.7  | 33.6  | 39.9  | 27.8  |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Apples             | 16.7  | 18.0  | 17.7  | 20.6  | 19.1  | 17.0  |
| (commercial)       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Bananas            | 13.6  | 11.2  | 10.3  | 11.0  | 12.0  | 10.9  |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oranges            | 5.9   | 6.4   | 5.8   | 6.1   | 6.8   | 5.6   |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Easy Peelers       | 4.6   | 5.2   | 3.8   | 4.1   | 4.1   | 3.4   |
|                    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| (Clementines,      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| tangerines etc.)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Grapes             | 4.2   | 3.8   | 3.8   | 4.3   | 3.9   | 3.6   |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Pears              | 2.5   | 2.3   | 2.7   | 2.8   | 2.5   | 2.2   |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Strawberries       | 2.3   | 2.4   | 2.5   | 2.7   | 2.4   | 2.6   |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Other              | 27.3  | 23.0  | 26.2  | 26.6  | 36.7  | 22.9  |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Total Fresh Fruit  | 90.9  | 81.5  | 86.8  | 95.0  | 102.7 | 82.5  |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

## Apple Consumption

Total domestic consumption of fresh apples from commercial and
non-commercial production combined was 1.71 million MT in MY 2002/03
(July/June). This figure includes 52,000 MT for processing purposes
other than apple juice (e.g. apple sauce). Consumption for processing
into apple juice was 650,000 MT. Intervention was down to 19 MT , as a
result of the lower CY 2002 harvest and the restrictive intervention
rule of the EU Common Market Organization for fruit and vegetables. In
MY 2003/04, fresh consumption is estimated at 1.57 million MT and
processing is expected to drop to 500,000 MT due to the lower
non-commercial crop. Intervention is estimated to be marginal.

## Pear Consumption

Per capita consumption of table pears (without house gardens) varies
between 2.2 and 2.8 kg in recent years. Consumption of fresh table pears
in MY 2002/03 (July/June) was 197,000 MT. Intervention of pears is
traditionally marginal in Germany. In MY 2002/03 there was no pear
intervention in Germany.

Pears for processing are used mainly for spirits and originate from
commercial production. In MY 2002/03, this amounted to 1,900 MT compared
to 1,262 MT in MY 2001/02 and 2,184 MT in MY 2000/01.

## Consumption of CAJ

Fruit juices and fruit juice drinks are very popular in Germany. The per
capita consumption of more than 40 liters per year is the highest in the
EU and about 13 percent above per capita consumption in the United
States.

## Table 3: Per Capita Consumption of Fruit Juices/Nectars in European Countries and the USA (in liters)

  ----------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ --------
                    1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002\*

  Germany           40.7   41.2   41.2   41.0   40.5   40.6   40.5   40.2

  Austria           31.4   33.0   34.5   36.1   37.4   37.8   35.6   32.0

  Finland           23.6   25.1   25.1   25.1   25.5   26.1   35.0   32.0

  Denmark           18.5   16.9   17.5   17.5   18.0   19.0   22.7   25.3

  Netherlands       24.4   26.0   26.7   26.7   26.5   26.1   25.5   24.4

  Sweden            20.1   20.6   20.6   20.6   21.0   21.5   23.0   23.7

  Spain             15.4   15.6   15.6   15.6   25.8   16.5   21.0   22.0

  France            16.5   18.0   18.0   18.1   18.6   20.5   21.8   21.7

  Great Britain     19.6   19.1   19.5   19.5   20.2   19.0   20.5   21.0

  Belgium/Lux.      19.4   20.2   20.8   20.8   20.5   20.5   19.9   19.7

  Ireland           10.4   11.7   12.0   12.3   12.5   13.3   15.6   17.1

  Greece            6.6    6.7    6.8    6.8    7.0    8.5    16.3   16.1

  Italy             9.0    9.5    9.6    9.6    10.0   10.5   11.7   11.9

  Portugal          5.3    6.2    6.5    6.5    6.8    7.1    10.8   11.1

  TOTAL EU-15       21.3   21.9   21.9   22.0   22.3   22.6   24.2   24.2

  Norway            19.5   18.6   18.6   23.8   24.5   25.5   31.4   32.7

  Switzerland       30.0   28.6   30.0   30.0   30.0   30.0   27.7   29.1

  United States     30.0   30.0   30.0   30.0   30.0   30.0   30.0   35.7
  ----------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ --------

\* Estimates

Source: VdF, Association of the German Fruit Juice Industry, Annual
Report 2002.

## Table 4: Per Capita Consumption of Apple Juice/Apple Fruit Drinks and Citrus Juice/Citrus Fruit Drinks in Germany (in kg)

  ---------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ---------
                   1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    Percent
                                                                                   change

  Apple Juice      11.79   12.15   12.17   11.64   12.00   12.20   12.15   11.97   -1.48

  Orange Juice     9.83    10.25   10.17   10.03   9.51    9.53    9.52    9.52    0.00

  Grape Juice      1.19    1.21    1.30    1.30    1.32    1.32    1.32    1.31    -0.76

  Grapefruit Juice 0.33    0.33    0.36    0.38    0.38    0.39    0.37    0.34    -8.11

  Pear Juice       0.13    0.15    0.17    0.17    0.18    0.18    0.20    0.20    0.00

  Vegetable Juice  0.86    0.87    0.87    0.96    0.96    0.96    0.97    0.97    0.00

  Citrus Nectar    8.57    8.30    8.28    8.30    7.81    7.75    7.68    7.65    -0.39

  Other            8.02    7.96    7.89    8.19    8.26    8.31    8.31    8.27    -0.48
  Juice/Nectar                                                                     

  Total            40.72   41.21   41.21   40.97   40.42   40.64   40.52   40.23   -0.72
  ---------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ---------

Source: VdF, Association of the German Fruit Juice Industry, Annual
Report 2002.

# Trade

Trade data for MY 2002/2003 is only available from July 2002 through May
2003. Unless stated otherwise, trade figures in this section are
comparing the first eleven months of MY 2002/2003 with the same period
in MY 2002/2001. Figures in the narrative therefore do not match figures
in the PSD, which are estimates for the whole marketing year.

## Apple Trade

In MY 2002/03, German imports of apples amounted to 784,426 MT, an
increase of 27 percent from the 614,464 MT in MY 2001/02, due to the
extremely low domestic crop of CY 2002. The largest supplier by far was
Italy with 41 percent of the imports, followed by the Netherlands (13
percent), France (9 percent), Belgium (8 percent), and the Czech
Republic (6 Percent). Most of the imports from the Czech Republic
consisted of must apples for juice production, 44,969 MT of 48,248 MT.
US apple exports to Germany amounted to 105 and 109 MT in MY 2001/02 and
2002/03, respectively.

In MY 2003/04, a drop in apple imports to 660,000 MT (July/June) is
expected due to the estimated higher domestic apple crop in conjunction
with lower crops in major supplying countries such as Italy, Belgium and
France. For details on crop forecasts for these and other EU-member
states please see GAIN report GM 3024.

Germany exports only small quantities of apples, mainly to other EU
member states. Exports of table apples amounted to 57,565 MT in MY
2002/03, almost the exact amount from the previous MY's level.

## Pear Trade

Pear imports amounted to 151,348 MT in MY 2002/03, a 3 percent rise
compared to the previous MY despite a higher domestic crop. The reason
for that lies in a higher availability of pears in neighboring
countries, especially Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands and
consequently lower prices, which drove demand up. Main suppliers were
Italy with about 44 percent of the imports, followed by Argentina (about
15 percent), South Africa (9 percent) , and Spain (8 percent). Pear
imports supplied roughly 77 percent of domestic consumption in MY
2002/03, slightly less than 80 percent in the previous marketing year.
Pear imports are expected to drop by 4 percent in MY 2003/04, due to the
lower crop in Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Imports from the United States dropped back to 2,490 MT in MY 2002/03
from 4,132 MT in MY 2001/02. However, this is still higher than imports
in MY 2000/01, which were 2,103 MT. United States ranked the number nine
supplier of fresh table pears to Germany and number four as a non-EU
supplier. Notable is the increase of pears from the People's Republic of
China. While imports from China were marginal before MY 2000/01, they
increased to 240, 1331 and 1683 MT in MY 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03,
respectively.

Pear exports from Germany were up in MY 2002/03 at 12,126 MT compared to
8,101 MT in MY 2001/02 .

## CAJ Trade

Accurate trade figures are difficult to retrieve, since there is little
ascertainable information about the strength (concentration) of
imported/exported CAJ. Therefore the recalculated figures for CAJ at
70.5 brix should be viewed with due caution.

Traditionally, the German apple juice industry depends heavily on
imports of apple juice concentrates of various densities. In MY 2002/03,
calculated German imports of CAJ at 70.5 brix were at 379,504 MT versus
334,353 MT in the previous MY. Imports of CAJ are expected to increase
in MY 2003/04 as both domestic and main suppliers' must apple crop, are
forecast to be lower in 2003 than in 2002.

Seventy-five percent of the German CAJ imports came from Poland, the
Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, and China with a market share of 44, 10,
8, 7 and 6.5 percent in MY 2002/03.

The United States remains the largest single export market for German
CAJ, consisting of mainly reprocessed concentrates from eastern European
countries or blends of such concentrates from domestic production.
Exports (at 70.5 brix) to the United States totaled 28,157 MT in MY
2002/03 versus 32,314 MT in MY 2001/02. This drop of 12.8 percent can be
attributed to the strong Euro, which makes German exports less
competitive to other origins outside Europe. In 2003/04 exports are
expected to be stable.

# Policy

Support for the German fruit sector is limited to what is available for
producer organizations under the EU common market organization for
fruits and vegetables (regulation 2200/96). For details please refer to
GAIN report GM3011.

# Related Reports

  --------- ----------- ---------------------------------------------------
  GM3011    3/17/2003   EU support for the fruit and vegetable sector in
                        Germany

  GM3024    8/13/2003   Prognosfruit 2003 -- European Crop Forecast
                        Convention

  GM3025    8/15/2003   German Fruit Tree Census
  --------- ----------- ---------------------------------------------------

# Statistical Section

Note: Due to software problems no trade matrices are supplied. They will
be provided at a later date.

Note: The PSD tables for apples and CAJ are connected. Therefore figures
for \"Processing\" in the PSD for apples only include apples for juice
production. Apples for other processing purposes (e.g. applesauce,
canned apples, spirits, bakeries) are included in \"Domestic
consumption\".

Note: Trade data in PS&D\'s, trade matrices and text for CAJ are
converted to 70.5 brix using a conversion factor of 0.158865 from 11.2
brix or single strength.

## Table 5: PSD for Fresh Apples (in ha, 1000 trees, MT)

![](media/image2.wmf)

## Table 6: PSD for Fresh Pears (in ha, 1000 trees, MT)

![](media/image3.wmf)

## Table 7: PSD for CAJ converted to 70.5 Brix (in MT)

![](media/image4.wmf)

Please note: Due to software problems the entries in the "FAS/Berlin
estimate" column of the "Deliv. To processors" is incorrect. Instead it
should read:

  ----------------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ------------ ---------- ------------
                    2001       Revised      2002       Estimate     2003       Forecast

                    USDA       Post         USDA       Post         USDA       Post
                    Official   Estimate     Official   Estimate     Official   Estimate
                    \[Old\]    \[New\]      \[Old\]    \[New\]      \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                07/2001                 07/2002                 07/2003
  Begin**                                                                      

  Deliv. To         536000     **544000**   590000     **650000**   0          **500000**
  Processors                                                                   
  ----------------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ------------ ---------- ------------