Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 3/1/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** KE4001

KE4001

**Kenya**

**Grain and Feed**

**Kenyan Maize update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Fred Kessel

U.S Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mary Onsongo

**Report Highlights:**

FAS total maize production for 2003/04 is projected at 2.5 million tons,
falling behind consumption (2.7 million tons). Efforts by private sector
to import maize are thwarted by poor production from the neighboring
countries and the 25 % duty. The U.S. is the expected source if
commercial imports occur.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Nairobi \[KE1\]

\[KE\]

Table of Contents

[**Production 3**](#production)

[Long Rain Crop 3](#long-rain-crop)

[Production 3](#production-1)

[Trade 3](#trade)

[Maize Prices 3](#maize-prices)

[Tanzania to import maize from Kenya
3](#tanzania-to-import-maize-from-kenya)

# Production

# Long Rain Crop

The long rain harvest is complete in most parts of the maize growing
areas. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) estimates an output of 2.19
million tons, which compares well with normal year long rain averages
(2.18 tons). FAS estimate 2 million tons for the long rain crop, a 0.2
million tons increase from the previous estimate primarily due to good
production in the main maize producing areas. The good production
camouflaged the poor harvest from the marginal agricultural areas.

## Production 

Some of the main short rain dependent areas received good rains whereas
others (i.e. along the coastal strip) have experienced prolonged
drought. FAS estimate for the short rain crop (harvesting has commenced
in the early planting provinces) remains at 500,000 tons. However, this
may e at the high end of short rain production. The likelihood is that
the short rain harvest could come in lower when actual harvest occurs.
Though the month of January experienced unseasonable rains it is
unlikely that the figures will increase, the output levels should be
fairly close to trend through the remainder of the 2003/04 marketing
year.

FAS total maize production for 2003/04 is projected at 2.5 million tons.

## 

# Trade

## Maize Prices

National average maize prices during the month of february have been
relatively high (\$ 220/mt) as compared to the same time last year (\$
125/mt). The high prices are attributed to reduced supply from
neighboring countries and competition from other traders and millers.
The prices are forecast to remain relatively firm until February/March
with the commencement of the Short rain harvest. This will be temporary
as supply shortages are expected to set in April/May. Cross border
imports are limited due to the poor production from the neighboring
countries and commercial imports from South Africa are unlikely given
the high South African prices coupled with 25 % duty. The US is the
expected source if commercial imports occur.

Recent National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) price increases to \$
199/mt indicate an increasing possibility of commercial imports in the
April -- June time frame.

# Tanzania to import maize from Kenya

## 

The government of Tanzania is scheduled to import 10,000 tons from Kenya
as famine relief aid. A further 10,000 tons may be shipped to Tanzania
in March.

####### KENYA PSD TABLE

+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| ###           |      |      |      |      |      |      |         |
| ### PSD Table |      |      |      |      |      |      |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| **Country**   | *    |      |      |      |      |      |         |
|               | *Ken |      |      |      |      |      |         |
|               | ya** |      |      |      |      |      |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| **Commodity** | **Co |      |      |      | (    |      |         |
|               | rn** |      |      |      | 1000 |      |         |
|               |      |      |      |      | HA)( |      |         |
|               |      |      |      |      | 1000 |      |         |
|               |      |      |      |      | MT)  |      |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
|               | 2002 | Rev  | 2003 | Esti | 2004 | Fore | UOM     |
|               |      | ised |      | mate |      | cast |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
|               | USDA | Post | USDA | Post | USDA | Post |         |
|               | Offi | Esti | Offi | Esti | Offi | Esti |         |
|               | cial | mate | cial | mate | cial | mate |         |
|               | \[O  | \[N  | \[O  | \[N  | \[O  | \[N  |         |
|               | ld\] | ew\] | ld\] | ew\] | ld\] | ew\] |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| **Market Year |      | 07/  |      | 07/  |      | 07/  | MM/YYYY |
| Begin**       |      | 2002 |      | 2003 |      | 2004 |         |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Area          | 1500 | 1690 | 1500 | 1500 | 0    | 1600 | (1000   |
| Harvested     |      |      |      |      |      |      | HA)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Beginning     | 135  | 490  | 48   | 180  | 48   | 150  | (1000   |
| Stocks        |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Production    | 2430 | 2400 | 2300 | 2500 | 0    | 2550 | (1000   |
|               |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| TOTAL Mkt.    | 33   | 110  | 200  | 250  | 0    | 200  | (1000   |
| Yr. Imports   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Oct-Sep       | 82   | 100  | 200  | 250  | 0    | 200  | (1000   |
| Imports       |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Oct-Sep       | 31   | 10   | 0    | 0    | 0    | 0    | (1000   |
| Import U.S.   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY  | 2598 | 3000 | 2548 | 2930 | 48   | 2900 | (1000   |
|               |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| TOTAL Mkt.    | 0    | 100  | 0    | 80   | 0    | 150  | (1000   |
| Yr. Exports   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Oct-Sep       | 0    | 100  | 0    | 100  | 0    | 150  | (1000   |
| Exports       |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Feed Dom.     | 50   | 50   | 50   | 52   | 0    | 50   | (1000   |
| Consumption   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| TOTAL Dom.    | 2550 | 2720 | 2500 | 2700 | 0    | 2600 | (1000   |
| Consumption   |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| Ending Stocks | 48   | 180  | 48   | 150  | 0    | 150  | (1000   |
|               |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+
| TOTAL         | 2598 | 3000 | 2548 | 2930 | 0    | 2900 | (1000   |
| DISTRIBUTION  |      |      |      |      |      |      | MT)     |
+---------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+---------+