**Trip report: 2004 IFPS Methodology Workshop**

Bob Ballard and Derek Wroe represented HFO at the 2004 IFPS Methodology
Workshop in Boulder, CO from April 27-29. The workshop covered numerous
topics dealing with national and local issues, though little was
discussed regarding day-to-day editing techniques.

National issues included a broad discussion of the NDFD and its related
statistics. All forecasters should familiarize themselves with the NDFD
website and statistics (available through a bookmark at each AWIPS
workstation's Netscape browser). National verification is currently
performed through the 20 km resolution RUC, though a 5 km ADAS is in
development.

Another national issue which has a substantial impact on CPHC and HFO
was tropical cyclone gridded forecasts. The 2003 hurricane season was a
testing period for NHC. They employed the TCM tool to produce wind grids
with crude depictions of tropical cyclone wind radii. Another tool has
been produced at FSL to better depict TC wind structure. Though this
tool is rather new, it appears to produce results superior to the TCM
tool, and with further modifications now in development at FSL, this
tool will likely replace the TCM tool. Andy has obtained the FSL tool
and is testing it. NHC will also test probabilistic wind grids during
the next two seasons. An opportunity to train for tropical cyclone
events is available for WES (and has been conducted at WFO Tallahassee.
A forecaster from this office praised this module.).

Other national issues of importance were the role of national centers
and which grids will be produced. More specifically for CPHC, we were
informed that OPC will produce wave height, wind, and swell grids in
FY2005, and that TPC will produce grids as well. The implication is that
CPHC (i.e., Honolulu's National Center) must prepare to join the gridded
forecast world.

On a local level, there were several procedures that held promise for
application at HFO. WFO Miami is running a local program to produce high
resolution, hourly analyses of wind and temperature using all available
observations. These analyses help by providing short term feedback to
produce better gridded forecasts, and enhance forecaster understanding
of mesoscale processes. A less sophisticated (and accurate) alternative
is employed at SRH and can be applied at HFO. Using the MatchObsAll
tool, we can create diagnostic grids. To begin, we could produce an
analysis of yesterday's MaxT and MinT, and with further development,
hourly temperature analyses could be performed.

Several methodologies/tools helpful in the forecast process were
presented. WFO Jacksonville has customized its DiurnalT tool to run off
an hourly diurnal temperature curve tailored to their CWA. Andy and Eric
are working on a similar tool, but WFO JAX's solution may useful. WFO
Tampa (and Miami) developed tools to create "threat grids". These grids
are typically empirically derived indices based on forecaster input via
a smart tool. An example could be a threat grid for thunderstorms or
heavy rain with forecaster inputs and weighting of CAPE, freezing level,
LI, etc. These grids could be kept for in house use or provided to the
public via the internet. Finally, WFO State College presented a
technique to populate extended grids using ensemble MOS in the MatchMOS
tool. This method produces a more conservative long range forecast that
weighted toward climatology.

WFO use and display of gridded data via the internet were demonstrated.
An example used at WFO Pleasant Hill (Kansas City) is their "weather
planner". The weather planner solicits weather input from a user on the
internet and produces a graphic which displays when weather conditions
fall within the user's tolerance range. A popular program instituted at
WFO Miami is "wireless weather". WFO Miami disseminates text products to
cell phones and PDAs. Anyone interested in exploring these and other
possibilities should peruse the websites of WFOs Pleasant Hill and
Miami.

Power Point presentations are available at P:\\IFPS_2004. Recommended
presentations:

1\. gtcm_update_future_knabb: Overview of what NHC is doing, including
the TCM tool.

2\. Apr2004-ifps-workshop-tcm: Comparison of hurricane wind fields from
the FSL and TCM tools.

3\. NWS_IFPSv2: Southern Region Headquarters' verification efforts using
the MatchObs tool.

4\. TheDiurnalTemperatureSmartTooltake2: Creating a WFO-customized
diurnal temperature curve for use in the DiurnalT tool.

5\. GFEWorkshop042004.2: Creation and use of WFO-tailored "threat
grids".

6\. MatchMosX: Populating medium and long range grids with ensemble MOS
data using the MatchMos tool.

Suggested action items for Derek Wroe include:

1.  Work on MatchObs & MatchMOS tools to improve for HFO.

2.  Complete various NWSTC IFPS Focal Point web modules.

3.  Explore viable "threat index" grids at HFO.