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Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 9/8/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** KS3052

KS3052

**Korea, Republic of**

**Grain and Feed**

**Rice PS&D Update**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Grant Pettrie

#### U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Stan Phillips/Sunchul Choi

**Report Highlights:** Cool and rainy weather in August and September is
expected to reduce Korea's rice harvest prospects to 4.7 million metric
tons; more than 200,000 tons less than the 2002 crop. Delivery of the
400,000-ton rice aid package for North Korea is expected to be completed
by early December 2003. MY 2003/04 ending stocks, in turn, are expected
to decline to 800,000 tons.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Seoul \[KS1\]

\[KS\]

**Production:**

Cool and rainy conditions during August and September have prompted a
reduction in the forecast of rice yields for Korea's 2003 crop. Reduced
yield prospects are expected to result in a crop of 4.7 million metric
tons (MMT). The estimated yield for the 2003 crop of 4.7 MT/ha (on a
milled basis) would be 4 percent less than the five-year-average yield
of 4.9 MT/ha. The revised yield forecast is similar to yields for the
2002 crop which were impacted by heavy rains and the effects of typhoon
Rusa which struck Korea in late-August of 2002.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has marginally increased
the estimate of harvested area to 1.016 million hectares. Despite the
slight increase, harvested area in 2003 is still expected to be nearly 4
percent less than 2002.

**Rice Aid For North Korea:**

According to the Ministry of Unification (MU), South Korea shipped
143,000 MT of local rice to North Korea from July 3 to September 3 under
the 400,000-ton rice aid package. Despite the difficulty of loading and
shipping the rice during wet weather, completion of the first 100,000 MT
tranche and substantial progress toward completion of the second tranche
indicates that the remainder of the 400,000 MT is likely to be shipped
by early December 2003. Previous estimates included the first tranche.
Accordingly, the estimate for MY 2002/03 exports has been increased
200,000 MT to 574,000 MT and the estimate for MY 2003/04 has been
increased to 100,000 MT.

![](media/image2.wmf)

  ------------ ---- ----------- ---------------- ---------------------------
  Rice Area,                                     
  Yield and                                      
  Production                                     

  CROP              AREA        YIELD            PRODUCTION

  YEAR              (1000HA)    (KG/HA)          MILLED

                                                 

  1991              1209        4454             5385

  1992              1157        4608             5331

  1993         a/   1136        4181             4750

  1994              1103        4587             5060

  1995         b/   1056        4445             4694

  1996              1050        5070             5323

  1997              1052        5180             5449

  1998              1059        4813             5097

  1999              1066        4937             5263

  2000              1072        4936             5291

  2001              1083        5092             5515

  2002         c/   1053        4679             4927
  ------------ ---- ----------- ---------------- ---------------------------

a/ Wet and unseasonably cool weather during the summer.

b/ Flood damage in August in the central regions and unfavorable weather
throughout the peninsula during the latter part of the growing season.

c/ Heavy rains during the summer and the effects of typhoon RUSA (Aug.
31 -- Sep.1)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry