# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 11-04

November 2004

# 

# Australia: Wheat Production Lower

Australia\'s 2004/05 wheat production is forecast at 22.5 million tons,
down 1.0 million from last month and down 2.4 million from last year.
The 2004/05 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.2 million hectares, down
0.3 million from last month, but up 0.2 million from last year. The
yield is forecast at 1.84 tons per hectare, which is slightly below the
average (excluding the 2002 season's 100-year drought), down 2 percent
from last month and down 8 percent from last year.

![](media/image2.png){width="5.385416666666667in" height="3.21875in"}

Australia's main wheat-producing regions have received below-normal
rainfall this season. Although favorable rains occurred during August,
the positive conditions were short lived with October weather being
mostly unfavorable. Given the lack of sub-soil moisture for several
months, this season's crop needed favorable spring rains that failed to
materialize. Early November rains in the southern growing areas are
expected to partially offset the negative consequences of the dry spring
months of September and October in the wheat areas. Wheat crops in parts
of Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales experienced record
temperatures accompanied by high winds during the second week of
October. Parts of Australia, especially New South Wales, have remained
in drought since the 100-year drought in 2002. While Western Australia
has been spared the extreme conditions, the lack of rain since
mid-September has reduced yield potential. Wheat crops in the driest
areas are being cut for hay. Wheat harvest is now winding down in
Queensland but is well underway in northern parts of New South Wales and
Western Australia. *(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at
202-690-0135.)*

> **EU-25: Record Wheat Crop Increased Further**

The European Union's (EU-25) wheat production for 2004/05 is estimated
at 134.5 million tons. This year's record crop has increased 1.25
million tons above last month's estimate, to reflect recent
end-of-harvest statistics. The 2004/05 crop is estimated to be 26
percent higher than last year's weather-reduced crop. Harvested area is
estimated at 23.2 million hectares, virtually unchanged from last month,
but up 6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 5.80 tons
per hectare, almost a 1-percent increase from last month and up 19
percent from last year. Based on recent harvest statistics, some
estimates were adjusted upward since last month. The largest increase
was 500,000 tons for France, which brought its crop up to 39.5 million
tons. Spain's production was increased 300,000 tons to 7.2 million, and
the Czech Republic was increased 225,000 tons to 5.1 million. Finally,
wheat in the United Kingdom (UK) was raised 100,000 tons to 15.7
million.

The largest EU wheat producer, France, is estimated to have harvested
9.0 million tons more wheat this year, totaling 39.5 million tons (30.5
million last year). Germany's 2004/05 wheat harvest is estimated at 25.0
million tons (19.3 million last year). The United Kingdom (UK) is
estimated to have harvested 15.7 million tons (14.3 million last year),
and Poland is estimated at 9.5 million tons (7.9 million last year).
*(For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)*

# Russia: Wheat Harvest Up 30 Percent From Last Year

The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2004/05 at 44.5 million
tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 10.4 million from last year.
According to official harvest data, 48.1 million tons of wheat was
harvested by November 2 (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying)
from over 95 percent of the sown area. Outstanding winter wheat yields
in the Southern District boosted overall wheat production, and generally
favorable harvest weather in the spring wheat region of Siberia has
enabled farmers to gather an above-average share of planted area. *(For
more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)*

**China: Corn Area and Production Revised Upward**

China's 2004/05 corn crop is estimated at 126.0 million tons, up 4.0
million from last month and 10.2 million from last year. The increase
was based on revisions to the 2003/04 and 2004/05 corn area estimates.
The 2003/04 area estimate was raised from 23.4 million to 24.1 million
hectares based on final official data from the National Bureau of
Statistics. The revised 2004/05 area estimate of 24.5 million hectares
reflects a year-to-year increase of about 2 percent (500,000 hectares).
According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Beijing and Chinese
sources, farmers responded to preferential government grain policies by
expanding corn area in 2004. The forecast yield of 5.14 tons per hectare
is virtually unchanged this month and the highest yield since 1998/99.
The crop benefited from adequate rainfall and favorable temperatures
this summer. Warm and mostly-dry autumn weather created very favorable
conditions for maturation and harvest. Preliminary results from several
important corn-growing provinces confirm earlier forecasts of a bumper
corn crop in 2004. Quality is reportedly better than last year and
moisture content is lower than normal. *(For more information, contact
Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)*

##### Indonesia: Palm Oil Output Higher on Increasing Area

Indonesia's palm oil output for 2004/05 is estimated this month at 11.5
million tons, up 5 percent from last month and 8 percent from last year.
Indonesia's Minister of Agriculture put planted area at 4.6 million
hectares, double the area of 1999. There is a lead time of 3 to 4 years
between planting of oil palm trees until fruit is harvested in
significant amounts. Indonesian palm oil production has increased an
average of 960,000 tons per year over the last 5 years, even though the
rate of increase may have been dampened because of the slowed economy
starting with the currency crisis of 1998. Economic uncertainty and
elevated palm oil export taxes at that time made investing in palm oil
plantations more risky and less profitable than would have been the case
in a rapidly growing economy. Future oil palm expansion efforts are
anticipated to include areas in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua, in
addition to Northern Sumatra where the industry is currently
concentrated. *(For more information, contact Paul Provance at
202-720-0881.)*

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-415), November 12,
2004.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The FAS Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division prepared this
report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released
after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on December 10, 2004.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director George Douvelis 202-720-0873 douvelis@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

Chief of Technology Services Bob Baldwin 202-720-1860
baldwin@fas.usda.gov

Image Processing Specialist Stephen Macugoski 202-720-6237
macugoski@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Rice Chairperson (Acting) Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Cotton Chairperson (Acting) Paul Provance 202-720-0881
provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Paraguay, & Mexico Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

Brazil, & Canada Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

European Union Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

& non-EU Europe

China, Koreas, Japan, Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

& Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, India Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

Pakistan, & Afghanistan

Southern Africa, West Africa, Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

& Turkey

United States Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.gov