**Draft Plan: MCI Interim Synthesis Project**

Leads: S. Ogle, T. West, D. Cooley and S. Denning

[Goal]{.underline}

Compile an inventory of net CO~2~ fluxes/C stock changes and compare
with a high resolution atmospheric inversion for the Mid-Continent
Intensive Campaign Region (Fig. 1). The interim study will focus on 2000
to 2003, providing an initial evaluation for the main synthesis of the
MCI project that will focus on 2007-08.

[Research Questions]{.underline}

-   How consistent are inventory results and atmospheric inversions for
    the Mid-Continent Region?

-   Which inventory emission sources or C pools appear to be the primary
    sources of discrepancy with inversion results?

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="4.6194444444444445in"
height="3.5694444444444446in"}

Fig 1. Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign Study Region.

[Inventory]{.underline}

Inventory estimates will be compiled from individual studies at a county
spatial scale and monthly time step from 2000 to 2003. Key sources and
pools include: fossil emissions; CO~2~ flux/C stock change for plants
and soils in croplands, grasslands, forestlands; livestock emissions;
waste management; and human respiration.

The following investigators have agreed to participate in the interim
study:

-   B. Cook -- Regional Flux (N. Wisconsin region)

-   M. Dietze -- CO~2~ flux in forestlands

-   K. Gurney -- fossil emissions

-   L. Heath -- C stock change in forestlands

-   C. Izaurralde -- soil C stock change in croplands

-   S. Liu -- soil C stock change in croplands

-   E. Lokuypitiya/S. Denning -- CO~2~ flux in croplands

-   S. Ogle/K. Paustian/C. Potter -- soil C stock change in grasslands
    and croplands

-   B. Riley/M. Fischer -- Regional Flux (S. MCI region)

-   C. Tonitto -- soil C stock change in croplands

-   T. West -- soil C stock change in croplands, livestock respiration,
    human respiration, fossil emissions from agricultural production
    (for potential integration with Gurney's dataset)

MAST-DC (B. Cook) will coordinate data compilation among investigators,
and provide results to CSU scientists for analyses (S. Ogle, S. Denning
and D. Cooley).

Investigators estimating CO~2~ flux or C stock changes for plant-soil
systems will be encouraged to simulate the sites included in the flux
synthesis led by S. Verma. The sites include: Ames, Iowa (J. Hatfield);
Illinois (T. Meyer/C. Bernacchi); Rosemount, Minnesota (J. Baker/T.
Griffis); and Mead, Nebraska (S. Verma/A. Suyker). Results from each
model will be compared to measurements from the sites, and summarized
using statistical techniques such as root mean square error.

Separate inventories will be created for sources and sinks with more
than one contribution (e.g., soil C stocks which include Ogle, West, Liu
and Izzauralde), and a combined inventory that averages emissions/C
stock changes from the multiple contributions. Uncertainties will be
requested from the each of the investigators and combined using a simple
error propagation method. Estimates may be aggregated in space if needed
to be consistent with the atmospheric CO~2~ inversions.

Deadlines:

Investigator C stock change/emissions data to MAST-DC -- September 1,
2008

Inventory Compilation Completed -- September 30, 2008

[Atmospheric CO~2~ Inversion]{.underline}

A high resolution atmospheric CO~2~ inversion will be produced for 2000
to 2003. The inversion will be aggregated to the monthly time step and
uncertainty will be quantified for each time step.

The following investigator has agreed to participate in the interim
study:

-   S. Denning (CSU)

-   A. Hirsch, A. Andrews and P. Tans (CARBONTRACKER)

-   A. Michalak (Univ. of Michigan)

Inversion results will be compared and then combined for comparisons to
the inventory results.

Deadlines:

Investigator inversion data to MAST-DC -- September 1, 2008

Combined inversion product -- September 30, 2008

[Diagnosis]{.underline}

Atmospheric inversions and inventories will be compared by computing the
absolute and relative difference for each time step. Differences will be
diagnosed based on relationships with surface characteristics,
vegetation indices, and weather patterns; as well as the underlying
sources and pools of CO~2~ estimated by investigators contributing to
the inventory.

Surface Characteristics/Vegetation Indices for Diagnosis:

-   Land/Water Percentage (\<1 km resolution)

-   MODIS EVI Product

-   MODIS LAI Product

-   MODIS Land Cover Product

-   NLCD Land Cover Product

-   Location of Roads and Settlements

-   Location of Power Plants

-   Digital Elevation Maps

Deadlines:

Diagnosis Results -- December 1, 2008

[Deliverable]{.underline}

Results will be presented at the NACP investigator meeting in 2009 and
also reported in a journal (or possibly EOS Transactions) with a focus
on the current findings and expectations for improving the understanding
of CO~2~ fluxes in the Mid-Continent Region with data from the intensive
field campaign.

Deadlines:

Manuscript -- February 15, 2009