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# **Aerospace Weather Policy & Standards Staff** 

## USERS' NEEDS ANALYSIS

**Space Weather**

**September 21, 2004**

#  

**COORDINATION AND APPROVAL**

**Coordination:**

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**Manager, Aerospace Weather Policy & Standards Date**

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**Manager, ??? Date**

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**??? Date**

**Approval:**

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**Staff Director Date**

1.  **ADMINISTRATIVE INFORMATION**

    1.  Space Weather Users\' Needs Analysis

    2.  UNA Number: 00-06

    3.  Originating Specialist: Lt. Col. Erwin Williams

    4.  Originating Organization: Committee for Space Weather (CSW),
        Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

    5.  Originating Office Phone Number: (301) 427-2002

    6.  FAA Sponsoring Organization: ARS-20

    7.  Sponsoring Organization's Point of Contact: Paul Armbruster

    8.  Sponsoring Organization's POC Phone Number: (202) 385-7715

    9.  Submission Date: May 7, 2000

**2.0 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY.**

> The Federal Aviation Administration\'s (FAA) Aerospace Weather Policy
> & Standards Staff (ARS-20) conducted a Users\' Needs Analysis (UNA) to
> determine what types of weather products users need to improve the
> decision-making process with respect to space weather phenomenon. The
> user feedback was achieved through face-to-face interviews and
> responses to questionnaires. The user groups that provided input to
> the UNA included air carrier and FAA personnel, and representatives
> from various aviation industry groups. Air carrier personnel who
> participated in the study included pilots, dispatchers, and flight
> attendants.

**3.0 IMPACT ON FAA MISSION AREAS**

> 3.1 Personnel who make decisions regarding aircraft operating in areas
> affected by space weather include pilots, dispatchers, air carrier
> station managers, airport/spaceport operators, and air traffic
> management coordinators. These professionals schedule and operate
> flights into and through affected areas. Decisions are based on
> observations, analyses, and forecasts of space weather events that
> interfere with operations. Inaccurate or missing weather information
> can result in unnecessary flight delays, diversions, or cancellations.
>
> Accurate and timely space weather forecasts directly affect safety,
> capacity, and aviation industry efficiency. Capacity and efficiency
> may be compromised when diversions or delays are initiated while
> aircraft are en-route. Trans-polar flights are especially vulnerable
> to the effects of space weather on radio communications. To avoid
> possible diversions, aircraft are occasionally routed on a more
> southerly course when hazardous space weather events are predicted. If
> the forecast is incorrect, cargo may be denied and valuable fuel and
> time are wasted.
>
> 3.2 The domain applicable to this UNA is NAS wide.

3.  There are many aviation documents that pertain to space weather,
    including:

> \(1\) Federal Aviation Regulations; 14 CFR121:
>
> 121.99 121.603
>
> 121.103 121.607
>
> 121.533 121.609

(2) Advisory Circulars (AC):

> AC 120-52 Radiation Exposure of Air Carrier Crewmembers
>
> AC 120-61 Crewmember Training on In-Flight Radiation Exposure
>
> \(3\) DOT/FAA/AM-92/2 Radiation Exposure of Air Carrier Crewmembers II
>
> \(4\) Air Carrier Operating Specifications --B055 -- North Polar
> Operations
>
> \(5\) Approved flight manuals

3.  Currently no documents are known to require changes.

# ***Space Weather Impacts on Aviation and Needed Capabilities***

+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| *    | ***At | *      | ***Shor  | ***Needed  | **  | *            |
| **Im | tribu | **Curr | tfall*** | Cap        | *Pr | **Remarks*** |
| pact | te*** | ent*** |          | ability*** | ior |              |
| on   |       |        |          |            | ity |              |
| Avi  |       |        |          |            | *** |              |
| atio |       |        |          |            |     |              |
| n*** |       |        |          |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| HF   | Obse  | Observ | Obse     | \          | 1   | SEC          |
| Comm | rving | ations | rvations | *Real-time |     | currently    |
| Ou   | real  | of     | are not  | o          |     | provides a   |
| tage | -time | c      | readily  | bservation |     | graphic      |
| in   | radio | urrent | a        | of polar   |     | product to   |
| P    | blac  | geoma  | vailable | HF radio   |     | depict the   |
| olar | kouts | gnetic | in       | blackouts, |     | D-region     |
| Reg  | in    | and    | g        | graphical  |     | absorption   |
| ions | polar | ene    | raphical | product    |     | of HF radio  |
|      | re    | rgetic | format.  | defining   |     | on sunlit    |
|      | gions | pa     | NOAA     | intensity, |     | side of      |
|      |       | rticle | Space    | f          |     | Earth during |
|      |       | ac     | Weather  | requencies |     | a solar      |
|      |       | tivity | Scales   | effected,  |     | flare, but   |
|      |       | allow  | are of   | and        |     | do not       |
|      |       | for    | limited  | ge         |     | produce a    |
|      |       | id     | use in   | ographical |     | product      |
|      |       | entifi | defining | b          |     | defining     |
|      |       | cation | bo       | oundaries. |     | h            |
|      |       | of     | undaries |            |     | igh-latitude |
|      |       | ob     | and      |            |     | blackout     |
|      |       | served | i        |            |     | areas.       |
|      |       | radio  | ntensity |            |     |              |
|      |       | o      | of       |            |     |              |
|      |       | utages | blackout |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | areas.   |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| HF   | F     | For    | No       | \*Forecast | 1   |              |
| Comm | oreca | ecasts | g        | of polar   |     |              |
| Ou   | sting | (      | raphical | radio      |     |              |
| tage | polar | issued | p        | blackouts  |     |              |
| in   | HF    | daily  | roducts. | 12 hours   |     |              |
| P    | comm  | and    | NOAA     | in advance |     |              |
| olar | ou    | every  | Scales   |            |     |              |
| Reg  | tages | 3      | do not   | \          |     |              |
| ions |       | hours) | ad       | *Graphical |     |              |
|      |       | in     | equately | depiction  |     |              |
|      |       | text   | identify | of         |     |              |
|      |       | format | forecast | f          |     |              |
|      |       | are    | blackout | orecasting |     |              |
|      |       | ava    | areas.   | radio      |     |              |
|      |       | ilable |          | blackouts. |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| HF   | Obse  | Gra    | No       | \          | 1   | Three        |
| Comm | rving | phical | g        | *Real-time |     | -dimensional |
| Ou   | real  | p      | raphical | o          |     | ionospheric  |
| tage | -time | roduct | product  | bservation |     | maps over    |
| in   | radio | is     | a        | of mid-    |     | the U.S. may |
| Mid  | blac  | ava    | vailable | and        |     | help define  |
| and  | kouts | ilable | to       | lo         |     | geographic   |
| Low  | in    | for HF | depict   | w-latitude |     | boundary of  |
| L    | mid-  | bla    | ge       | HF radio   |     | HF           |
| atit | and   | ckouts | ographic | blackouts  |     | degradations |
| udes | low   | during | extent   | due to     |     | during       |
|      | -lati | X-ray  | of mid-  | g          |     | geomagnetic  |
|      | tudes | flare  | and      | eomagnetic |     | storms.      |
|      |       | e      | low-     | storms,    |     |              |
|      |       | vents. | latitude | graphical  |     |              |
|      |       |        | HF       | product    |     |              |
|      |       |        | b        | defining   |     |              |
|      |       |        | lackouts | intensity, |     |              |
|      |       |        | due to   | f          |     |              |
|      |       |        | geo      | requencies |     |              |
|      |       |        | magnetic | effected,  |     |              |
|      |       |        | storms.  | and        |     |              |
|      |       |        |          | ge         |     |              |
|      |       |        |          | ographical |     |              |
|      |       |        |          | b          |     |              |
|      |       |        |          | oundaries. |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| HF   | F     | Geoma  | N        | \*Forecast | 1   |              |
| Comm | oreca | gnetic | ear-term | of         |     |              |
| Ou   | sting | (      | f        | g          |     |              |
| tage | mid-  | issued | orecasts | eomagnetic |     |              |
| in   | and   | daily  | of flare | activity   |     |              |
| Mid  | lo    | and    | activity | up to 6    |     |              |
| and  | w-lat | 3-h    | are not  | hours in   |     |              |
| Low  | itude | ourly) | av       | advance.   |     |              |
| L    | HF    | and    | ailable. |            |     |              |
| atit | comm  | flare  |          |            |     |              |
| udes | ou    | proba  |          |            |     |              |
|      | tages | bility |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | (      |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | issued |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | daily) |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | for    |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | ecasts |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | ava    |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | ilable |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | in     |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | text   |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | f      |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | ormat. |          |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| Bi   | Obse  | CAMI   | Limited  | Provide    | 2   |              |
| olog | rving | pr     | dist     | CAMI       |     |              |
| ical | real  | oduces | ribution | access to  |     |              |
| R    | -time | a      |          | WMSCR      |     |              |
| adia | radi  | Solar  |          | di         |     |              |
| tion | ation | Rad    |          | stribution |     |              |
|      | risk  | iation |          | network,   |     |              |
| Expo | from  | Alert  |          | with       |     |              |
| sure | ener  | system |          | alerts     |     |              |
|      | getic | based  |          | targeted   |     |              |
|      | par   | on     |          | to         |     |              |
|      | ticle | observ |          | Airlines   |     |              |
|      | e     | ations |          | and FAA    |     |              |
|      | vents | from   |          | Command    |     |              |
|      |       | GOES   |          | Center     |     |              |
|      |       | satel  |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | lites. |          |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| Bi   | After | CAMI   | Does not | I          | 2   |              |
| olog | f     | pr     | include  | ncorporate |     |              |
| ical | light | ovides | dosage   | estimated  |     |              |
| R    | radi  | est    | from     | dosage     |     |              |
| adia | ation | imated | e        | from       |     |              |
| tion | d     | dosage | nergetic | energetic  |     |              |
|      | osage | from   | particle | particle   |     |              |
| Expo | est   | cosmic | events.  | events     |     |              |
| sure | imate | rad    |          | into       |     |              |
|      |       | iation |          | cosmic     |     |              |
|      |       | after  |          | radiation  |     |              |
|      |       | f      |          | exposure   |     |              |
|      |       | lights |          | estimates. |     |              |
|      |       | have   |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | occ    |          |            |     |              |
|      |       | urred. |          |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| Bi   | F     | Rad    | Accuracy | Longer     | 2   |              |
| olog | oreca | iation | and      | lead-time  |     |              |
| ical | sting | storm  | l        | and more   |     |              |
| R    | radi  | fo     | ead-time | accurate   |     |              |
| adia | ation | recast | of       | p          |     |              |
| tion | storm | with   | r        | rediction. |     |              |
|      | e     | lead   | adiation |            |     |              |
| Expo | vents | times  | storm    |            |     |              |
| sure |       | of 20  | f        |            |     |              |
|      |       | m      | orecasts |            |     |              |
|      |       | inutes | and      |            |     |              |
|      |       | to     | warnings |            |     |              |
|      |       | s      | are not  |            |     |              |
|      |       | everal | adequate |            |     |              |
|      |       | hours. | for      |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | aviation |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | ope      |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | rations. |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| Na   | O     | Gra    | No       | \          | 1   | Three        |
| viga | bserv | phical | g        | *Real-time |     | -dimensional |
| tion | ation | p      | raphical | o          |     | ionospheric  |
| d    | of    | roduct | product  | bservation |     | maps over    |
| isru | g     | is     | is       | of mid-    |     | the U.S. may |
| ptio | eomag | ava    | a        | and        |     | help define  |
| n/ou | netic | ilable | vailable | lo         |     | geographic   |
| tage | act   | for HF | to       | w-latitude |     | boundary GPS |
|      | ivity | bla    | depict   | GPS        |     | disruptions  |
|      | that  | ckouts | ge       | d          |     | during       |
|      | may   | during | ographic | isruption, |     | geomagnetic  |
|      | a     | X-ray  | extent   | graphical  |     | storms..     |
|      | ffect | flare  | of mid-  | product    |     |              |
|      | s     | e      | and      | defining   |     |              |
|      | ingle | vents. | low-     | intensity  |     |              |
|      | -freq |        | latitude | and        |     |              |
|      | GPS   |        | sin      | ge         |     |              |
|      | acc   |        | gle-freq | ographical |     |              |
|      | uracy |        | GPS      | b          |     |              |
|      |       |        | dis      | oundaries. |     |              |
|      |       |        | truption |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | due to   |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | geo      |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | magnetic |            |     |              |
|      |       |        | storms.  |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+
| Na   | For   | Geoma  |          | \*Forecast | 1   |              |
| viga | ecast | gnetic |          | of         |     |              |
| tion | of    | for    |          | g          |     |              |
| d    | g     | ecasts |          | eomagnetic |     |              |
| isru | eomag | ava    |          | activity   |     |              |
| ptio | netic | ilable |          | up to 6    |     |              |
| n/ou | act   | in     |          | hours in   |     |              |
| tage | ivity | text   |          | advance.   |     |              |
|      | that  | format |          |            |     |              |
|      | may   | (      |          | \          |     |              |
|      | a     | issued |          | *Graphical |     |              |
|      | ffect | daily  |          | depiction  |     |              |
|      | s     | and    |          | of         |     |              |
|      | ingle | 3-h    |          | forecast   |     |              |
|      | -freq | ourly) |          | GPS        |     |              |
|      | GPS   |        |          | d          |     |              |
|      | acc   |        |          | isruption. |     |              |
|      | uracy |        |          |            |     |              |
+------+-------+--------+----------+------------+-----+--------------+

More detail to this table could be developed by SEC in concert with
additional input from commercial aviation users.

######## NEEDED CAPABILITY

4.  All identified needs in this UNA are space weather-related.

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4.  Federal Aviation Administration Advisory Circular AC 120-61,
    "Crewmember Training on In-Flight Radiation Exposure" recommends
    airlines (1) inform crewmembers about radiation exposure and known
    associated health risks; and (2) assist crewmembers in making
    informed decisions with regard to their work on commercial air
    carriers.

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4.  In order to improve operational planning prior to flight,
    dispatchers and pilots need access to accurate forecasts for the
    route, especially for Polar routes. OPSPEC B055 - NORTH POLAR
    OPERATIONS states that:

    3.  In accordance with § 121.99 (Communications Facilities), the
        operator must have effective communications capability with
        dispatch and with ATC for all portions of the flight route. The
        operator must show the FAA the communications medium(s) that it
        intends to use to fulfill these requirements in the north polar
        area.

\(1\) The communications medium used must meet FAA regulatory
requirements and fulfill policy/procedures established by each Air
Traffic Service (ATS) unit providing control on the route of flight.
Anchorage Center publishes this information in the US Government Flight
Information Publication Supplement for Alaska. Other countries publish
ATS policies and procedures in their State Aeronautical Information
Publications.

\(2\) HF Voice has been considered the primary communications medium in
the Polar North Area; however, other mediums may be used in accordance
with the applicable policy. For example, although HF Voice remains
primary for communications with Anchorage Center, in areas where there
is satellite coverage, SATCOM voice may be used as a back-up to
communicate with ARINC Radio and in non-routine situations to establish
direct pilot-controller voice communications.

\(3\) In areas of satellite coverage, controller-pilot data link
communications (CPDLC) may be used for ATC communications provided the
ATS unit has an approved capability. In addition, provided the
capability is approved, HF Datalink may also be used to fulfill
communications requirements with ATS units having the capability and
with airline dispatch.

> \(4\) It is recognized that SATCOM may not be available for short
> periods during flight over the North Pole, particularly when operating
> on designated polar routes 1 and 2 (see 8400.10, vol. 4, chapter 1,
> section 4). Communication capability with HF radios may also be
> affected during periods of solar flare activity. The operator must
> take into consideration for each dispatched polar flight, the
> predicted solar flare activity and its effect on communication
> capability.

4.  Decision-makers need to know the starting and ending times and the
    type of disturbance (radio interference or biological). Each set of
    users needs this weather information up to 12 hours in advance and
    throughout the solar event.

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4.  Pilots using GPS for en route navigation are rarely affected by
    anomalies in the GPS timing signal, as the accuracies are more than
    adequate for this phase of flight. However, pilots using GPS for
    approach to landing may suffer serious degradations in performance,
    as the accuracy requirements are much tighter during this phase of
    flight. WAAS and LAAS systems, once fully deployed, may filter out
    Ionospheric scintillations or density bubbles that delay the GPS
    timing signal thus causing positional errors. Accurate and reliable
    position measurements in both vertical and lateral dimensions are
    required.

**5. CURRENT AND PLANNED CAPABILITY**

1.  Space Weather sources currently used include products and
    information from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC), FAA's Civil Aeromedical
    Institute (CAMI), and Department of Defense. Solar and earth\'s
    geomagnetic field disturbance (Ap) indices correlating with the WAAS
    measurements are some of the government products currently produced
    that partially address the needs for information concerning space
    weather events. The NOAA Space Weather Scales were recently
    developed by SEC to improve understanding of space weather events
    among technical operators and the general public alike. The scales
    have numbered intensity levels serve as a sort of Richter scale that
    correlates space weather events with their likely effects on
    technological systems.

2.  The NOAA Space Weather Scales are broken down into three categories:
    Geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms and radio blackouts.

    1.  Geomagnetic storms are disturbances in the geomagnetic field
        caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth. Typical
        effects from geomagnetic storms include degradation of high
        frequency (HF) radio communications, satellite navigation
        degradation and disruption of low frequency radio navigation
        systems. Aside from strictly aviation effects, geomagnetic
        storms also cause disruptions to electrical power grids and in
        extreme cases could cause power failures in the electrical grid.
        Air Traffic Control Facilities and other NAS components are
        susceptible to these power outages.

    2.  Solar radiation storms are elevated levels of radiation that
        occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase. Typical
        effects from solar radiation storms include degradation of
        satellite tracking and power systems, radiation hazards to
        humans in flight at high altitudes or high latitudes. High
        latitude HF radio blackouts and induced positional errors to GPS
        are also possible.

    3.  Radio blackouts are disturbances of the ionosphere caused by
        X-ray emissions from the Sun. X-ray emissions typically affect
        the HF radio band.

3.  The NOAA Space Weather Scales are inadequate, in their current
    state, to support aircraft operations on polar routes. These
    products lack essential data elements and accuracy needed for sound
    decision support.

4.  The CAMI Radiobiology researchers have developed a Solar Radiation
    Alert system. The system, a collaborative effort by CAMI, SEC, and
    Northern Arizona University, provides early warning of potentially
    harmful solar radiation storms. These storms could result in air
    travelers and airline flightcrews being exposed to excessive amounts
    of ionizing radiation.

    1.  Another source of radiation to airline passengers and crews is
        cosmic radiation, which originates from space and is present in
        background levels that can also cause human biological concerns.
        The amount of exposure to cosmic radiation while flying depends
        on the amount of time in the air, in addition to altitude,
        latitude, and solar activity. The intensity of cosmic radiation
        at aircraft altitudes near the poles, for example, is about
        twice that at the equator. Additionally, at higher altitudes the
        earth's atmosphere is much thinner than it is on the ground, and
        the intensity of cosmic radiation is therefore greater.

    2.  Because radiation exposure in any amount is considered
        potentially harmful, the FAA recommends occupational radiation
        exposure limits for commercial aircraft crewmembers. The limits
        include a 5-year average effective dose of 20 millisieverts per
        year, with no more than 50 millisieverts in a single year. For
        pregnant crewmembers, additional restrictions apply because of
        the increased radiation risk to unborn children.

    3.  SEC also produces a real-time graphical product measuring the
        estimated absorption in the D region of the ionosphere due to
        increased levels of X-ray flux from major solar flares, which
        affects HF communication on the day side of Earth. Absorption of
        HF radio signals can range from 1dB or less during weak flare
        activity to \>10dB during extreme solar flares.

        1.  At this time, however the D-region Absorption product does
            not include the effects of energetic protons, often
            associated with major flares, which can impact the D-region
            in the polar regions and significantly degrade HF
            communications. The Air Force Handbook of Geophysics and the
            Space Environment, 1985, lists the following relationship
            between proton flux and radio blackouts:

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  \>10 MeV proton flux    Absorption at 30 MHz    Qualifier
  cm-2 sec-1 sr-1                                 

  0 to 10 pfu             Insignificant           None

  10 to 100 pfu           \< 1.5 dB               None to moderate

  102 to 103 pfu          1.5 to 4.6 dB           Moderate to Severe

  103 to 104 pfu          4.6 to 15 dB            Severe to Blackout

  \> 103 pfu              \> 15 dB                Blackout
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Table 1. Relationship between proton flux and radio blackouts

2.  SEC is currently developing enhancements to its D-region absorption
    product to include the effects of proton flux on the D-region in the
    polar regions. Current prototypes of this product enhancement
    deliver good geographic fidelity and measure of HF communication
    degradation in the polar regions. However, since the product is
    generated by merging three hours of Polar-orbiting Observational
    Satellite System (POES) data, the product is not timely because the
    POESS data arrives 1.5 to 2.5 hours after the observations.

3.  Planned improvements in the prototype polar D-region absorption
    product includes using GOES particle observations to provide
    real-time information on solar particle intensity, which may lead to
    improved forecasts of radio frequency outages over the poles.

**6.0 CAPABILITY SHORTFALL**

6.1 Based on user feedback, the following are recommendations in order
of descending priority for the four most-desired Space weather product
enhancements to support operational decision making.

> \(1\) Real-time forecast of radio blackouts beginning and ending times
> with a minimum useful temporal accuracy of +/-1 hour, and an optimal
> accuracy of +/-30 minutes. The product should be available at least 1
> hour, and optimally 3 hours prior to the beginning and ending of the
> event.
>
> \(2\) Dissemination of alerts via a wide variety of mediums, including
> WMSCRR and NADIN, is considered important. The requested formats are
> text for detailed information and graphic for quick scan
> interpretation.
>
> \(3\) Full implementation of the FAA's LAAS and WAAS system to
> minimize positional errors in GPS due to Ionospheric scintillations.
> The current LAAS/WAAS system is still experiencing positional errors
> due to the scientific community's incomplete understanding of the
> ionosphere.
>
> \(4\) As space weather information becomes more widely disseminated
> all flight crews should be trained on its interpretation and use
> including but not limited to:
>
> -Training on alerts and forecasts, using both graphics and text.
>
> -Understanding how space weather impacts the NAS
>
> -Briefings to personnel on the impacts of space weather alerts and
> operations (Have the Space Environment Center personnel train company
> educators).
>
> It is evident that there is currently no standard for training in
> space weather impacts for flight crews. Additionally, while the
> current forecast products provide little, if any, lead times, dispatch
> decision-makers would like to have lead times of at least 1 to 3 hours
> in order to enable them to adjust flight schedules, routes, and
> arrange for additional refueling stops, if required.
>
> Although the UNA results showed a strong desire for improved
> forecasts, forecasters at SEC who participated in the study pointed
> out that improved solar observations are essential to improving the
> forecasts. Several of the satellites currently providing solar
> observations are in danger of failing, with no ready replacements
> available. This could seriously degrade both operational forecasts and
> the research needed to improve those forecasts.

####  

**7.0 BENEFITS**

> 7.1 Implementation of more accurate and timely space weather forecasts
> prior to solar events will help to decrease the impacts on airline
> operations and improve crew safety. Forecast enhancements will
> significantly reduce operations costs due to arrival/departure delays,
> cancellations, and re-routings.
>
> 7.2 Real-time observation of polar HF radio blackouts, graphical
> product defining intensity, frequencies affected, and geographical
> boundaries will allow dispatchers to more efficiently plan for
> trans-polar flights. When no radio blackouts are observed, trans-polar
> flights may proceed normally. However, when radio blackouts are
> observed then changes to flight plans may be made in advance, advanced
> planning can yield significant cost savings over in-flight re-routing.
> Timely and accurate forecasts of these events can give dispatchers
> more time to find alternative routes, thereby avoiding costly enroute
> flight plan changes.

3.  Dissemination of space weather data via a variety of methods will
    help ensure that the information is getting to the people. While the
    major airlines and some of the larger business carriers may have
    access to WMSCR and NOAAPORT the smaller operations may not.
    Transmission via TCP/IP would assure widespread dissemination,
    although the service must a QICP certified if Part 121 or Part 135
    operators wish to use it.

4.  Better understanding of the ionosphere can lead to improved methods
    of correction on LAAS/WAAS systems. The improvement in accuracy in
    the LAAS/WAAS could lead to decreased delays due to low
    ceiling/visibility conditions by allowing decreased approach
    minimums.

**8.0 TIMEFRAME AND CRITICALITY**

> 8.1 Immediate action is required to provide the improved space weather
> forecast products identified by the UNA. If no action is taken,
> decision-makers will continue to make decisions based on limited or
> time delayed data. Without improvements in space weather forecasts,
> timely decision-making is compromised, resulting in reduced airport
> arrival and departure rates, ultimately leading to a systemic
> slow-down effect throughout the NAS.
>
> 8.2 The need identified in this UNA is high since it pertains to
> aircraft operations, which are critical to NAS capacity while
> maintaining flight safety.

**9.0 GLOSSARY**

AC Advisory Circular

NAS National Airspace System

SEC Space Environment Center

UNA Users\' Needs Analysis

WMSCR Weather Message Switching Center replacement

QICP Qualified Internet Content Provider

**10.0 APPENDIX**