Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 12/6/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** AR5036

AR5036

**Argentina**

**Grain and Feed**

**Update**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kari Rojas

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Kari Rojas

**Report Highlights:**

Report includes state of crops to date. Official trade and milling data
is also provided as is export sales, commitments, and shipments.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Buenos Aires \[AR1\]

\[AR\]

#  

[Production 3](#production)

[Wheat 3](#wheat)

[Barley 3](#barley)

[Rice 4](#rice)

[Corn 4](#corn)

[Trade 4](#trade)

[Wheat 4](#wheat-1)

[Corn 5](#corn-1)

[Consumption 5](#consumption)

[Export Sales 6](#export-sales)

#   {#section-1 .unnumbered}

# Production

## Wheat

The wheat harvest continues to move southward throughout the country.
The following is a summary of the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock,
Fisheries, and Food (SAGPyA) weekly report for December 1, 2005. SAGPyA
estimates total planted area at 4.963 million has. As of December 1,
only 714,530 has were harvested, approximately 55 percent less than the
same time last year.

In Cordoba Province, harvest is almost complete. The delegations of
Laboulaye, Marcos Juarez, and Villa Maria reported average yields of
1.6, 3.0, and 2.0 MT/ha, respectively. The San Francisco delegation
reported variable yields of generally good quality.

Harvest in the Entre Rios Province finished with an average yield of 3.0
MT/ha of good quality. La Pampa Province experienced a delay in harvest
due to last week's rains. Disparate yields are expected across the
province due to the high variability of conditions found in the various
lots. Average yields are expected to be between 1.4 -- 1.9 MT/ha.
Southern La Pampa Province suffered severely from the drought; yields
are expected to be around 1.0 MT/has.

Harvest began this week in the Venado Tuerto delegation (Santa Fe
Province). Depending on the damage caused by late frosts, yields ranged
from 2.8 to 5.5 MT/ha. Yields in Cañada de Gomez are higher than
anticipated, averaging 2.5 MT/ha, due to excellent climatic conditions
after flowering and during grain fill. There have been some areas of
this delegation affected by the late frost of September, but they were
very few and isolated, and depend greatly on the elevation of the lots
and planting dates. In Casilda delegation, harvest is moving along with
the exception of the southeast Caseros department where a large area was
affected by late frosts. In this area some producers may apply drying
agents as some lots are showing signs of "re-sprouting". In the rest of
the wheat area in Santa Fe, yields are superior to pre-harvest
estimates, averaging about 3.4 MT/ha.

In the major wheat producing areas of Argentina, located in southern
Buenos Aires Province, the crop is in generally good conditions. In
Tandil delegation, lack of precipitation during October slightly
affected the crop. Specifically in the Salado area, there are a few
cases were the lack of rain affected grain fill, which will translate
into a reduction in yields. Overall, however, the crop in this area is
in good condition.

Lots in the Tres Arroyos delegation are very uneven in their development
and health, making it very difficult to estimate yields. The majority of
the crop is between the stages of spiking and filling.

Harvest began in the Junin and Pergamino delegations with yields of 3.9
and 3.5 MT/ha, respectively. A decrease in production of near 40 percent
is expected in the Pigüe delegation, with respect to last year, due a
drought that persisted throughout the growing season. Puan, Saavedra,
Tornquist, and southern General Lamadrid are the most affected.

In the area of Salliqueló delegation, besides reductions in yields,
harvested area is also estimated to decline due to drought. Many fields
did not develop, while others were severely affected by the lack of
precipitation. Additionally, in the areas of A. Alsina, Salliqueló, and
Tres Lomas, 700 has were lost due to hailstorms on November 20 and 27.

## Barley

Harvest began this week in the Buenos Aires province and is almost
finished in Santa Fe. Average yields in both areas are 3.5 MT/ha. SAGPyA
estimates total barley planted at 269,980 has., down slightly from last
year. As of December 1, 36,110 has. were harvested.

## Rice

Planting is finishing up in the Parana delegation of Entre Rios. Some
producers have begun flooding their fields. SAGPyA estimates total
planted area at 160,372 has (17,835 has of long-wide and 142,537 has of
long-fine)

## Corn

SAGPyA estimates total planted area at 3.055 million has, down slightly
from last year. TO date only 2.33 million has were planted.

Planting in the Buenos Aires Province is nearly complete, with only a
few lots in Salliqueló remaining to be sown. The crop is in good
condition, developing normally with the most advanced fields showing 4
--6 leaves. There have been no reports of phytosanitary problems.

In Cordoba, fields in Laboulaye and Marcos Juarez delegations are
developing normally, with about 10 leaves showing in the most advanced
lots. On average, most fields are showing 4 --6 leaves. In the San
Francisco delegation, planting continued this week, after a pause during
last week's rains.

Most of La Pampa Province benefited from last week's rains; however, the
southern part of the province is still suffering from a drought. In the
most advanced fields, plants have developed 4 --6 leaves.

Santa Fe Province also benefited from last week's rains with the crop
showing 6 -- 10 leaves, depending on the planting date. No plagues or
phytosanitary problems have been reported. Avellaneda and Rafaela
delegations are finishing up late planting on a few lots.

# Trade

## Wheat

  ------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- --------------- ------------- ----------------
  **Argentine                                                                                                                                                                       
  Wheat Exports                                                                                                                                                                     
  MT**                                                                                                                                                                              

  **December                                                                                                                                                                        
  2004 -                                                                                                                                                                            
  October                                                                                                                                                                           
  2005**                                                                                                                                                                            

  **HS Code**   **December**    **January**     **February**    **March**       **April**     **May**       **June**      **July**      **August**    **September**   **October**   **TOTAL**

  1001          1,406,068       2,180,382       1,614,019       1,202,719       874,125       667,598       476,349       482,836       535,554       351,018         397,152       **10,187,819**

  1101\*        1,127           1,426           724             1,276           716           790           407           1,741         489           445             739           **9,880**

  190120\*      30,406          32,736          26,218          31,288          19,905        30,225        33,478        29,614        34,642        30,609          42,414        **341,536**

  190219\*      1,627           1,468           3,353           3,866           3,336         4,087         3,900         4,610         3,905         2,651           3,667         **36,471**

  190230\*      29              14              43              94              66            4             41            27            17            39              60            **435**

  **Total**     **1,439,258**   **2,216,027**   **1,644,357**   **1,239,243**   **898,149**   **702,703**   **514,176**   **518,829**   **574,607**   **384,762**     **444,032**   **10,576,142**

  \* Wheat                                                                                                                                                                          
  Equivalent                                                                                                                                                                        
  (product                                                                                                                                                                          
  weight x                                                                                                                                                                          
  1.368)                                                                                                                                                                            
  ------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- --------------- ------------- ----------------

##  Corn 

  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------ --------------- ------------- ------------
  **Argentine                                                                                                         
  Corn Exports                                                                                                        
  March-                                                                                                              
  October                                                                                                             
  2005**                                                                                                              

  ** **         **March**   **April**   **May**     **June**   **July**    **August**   **September**   **October**   **TOTAL**

  **1005**      2,397,771   1,745,622   1,373,718   956,776    1,450,271   1,252,108    986,457         877,794       11,040,517
  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------ --------------- ------------- ------------

\* Source: NOSIS: private data source based on Argentine Customs Data

# Consumption

  --------------- --------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- --------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- --------- ------------ ------------- --------------- ---------------
  **Argentine                                                                                                                                                                        
  Milling, as of                                                                                                                                                                     
  November 7,                                                                                                                                                                        
  2005 (MT)**                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                     

  ** **           **Wheat**       ** **       **Wheat**     ** **       **Corn**        **Sorghum**   **Oats**    **Barley**    **Rye**   **Millet**   **Rice**      **Wheat**       

  ** **           **Bread**       ** **       **Durum**                 ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         **Flour**       **Meal**

  ** **           **Mills**       **Feed**    **Mills**     **Feed**    ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

                                  ** **                                                                                                                                               

  **2004**                                                                                                                                                                            

  **January**     **405,715**     **601**     **9,563**     **8**       **158,554**     **8,579**     **962**     **37,505**    **0**     **4**        **25,809**    **282,888**     **97,024**

  **February**    **389,263**     **234**     **10,029**    **11**      **146,897**     **8,210**     **942**     **36,596**    **2**     **3**        **34,470**    **288,663**     **97,303**

  **March**       **444,289**     **146**     **12,228**    **16**      **140,614**     **5,806**     **698**     **37,973**    **1**     **1**        **28,281**    **324,621**     **99,857**

  **April**       **409,445**     **110**     **10,180**    **18**      **162,108**     **8,403**     **720**     **33,955**    **0**     **6**        **29,362**    **300,845**     **102,242**

  **May**         **412,771**     **240**     **11,479**    **20**      **165,786**     **9,911**     **519**     **40,207**    **0**     **2**        **36,691**    **310,246**     **104,467**

  **June**        **417,564**     **242**     **13,467**    **9**       **161,263**     **13,205**    **488**     **39,216**    **0**     **3**        **32,128**    **310,125**     **104,187**

  **July**        **456,262**     **160**     **12,138**    **8**       **174,703**     **12,967**    **952**     **40,938**    **0**     **4**        **43,398**    **341,419**     **114,876**

  **August**      **442,743**     **192**     **12,537**    **16**      **175,722**     **12,820**    **916**     **41,303**    **0**     **1**        **40,401**    **346,283**     **110,661**

  **September**   **432,744**     **175**     **11,161**    **88**      **175,883**     **10,233**    **810**     **39,253**    **0**     **7**        **42,066**    **312,375**     **106,677**

  **October**     **422,132**     **255**     **10,239**    **50**      **171,884**     **10,429**    **604**     **38,467**    **43**    **4**        **43,117**    **303,905**     **100,822**

  **November**    **409,931**     **96**      **11,178**    **429**     **175,166**     **10,791**    **440**     **38,275**    **46**    **2**        **46,873**    **299,935**     **100,619**

  **December**    **387,453**     **137**     **8,551**     **275**     **172,487**     **11,076**    **687**     **35,676**    **44**    **1**        **34,796**    **281,275**     **93,731**

  ** **           ** **           ** **       ** **         ** **       ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

  **Total 2004**  **5,030,312**   **2,588**   **132,750**   **948**     **1,981,067**   **122,430**   **8,738**   **459,364**   **136**   **38**       **437,392**   **3,702,580**   **1,232,466**

  ** **           ** **           ** **       ** **         ** **       ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

  ** **           ** **           ** **       ** **         ** **       ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

  **2005**        ** **           ** **       ** **         ** **       ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

  **January**     **398,802**     **213**     **13,162**    **75**      **172,477**     **9,009**     **950**     **36,148**    **41**    **4**        **42,270**    **292,455**     **99,422**

  **February**    **388,152**     **242**     **12,841**    **123**     **154,565**     **9,339**     **716**     **34,183**    **44**    **4**        **61,387**    **292,421**     **97,385**

  **March**       **425,858**     **295**     **14,835**    **132**     **174,272**     **10,539**    **951**     **41,738**    **44**    **4**        **58,286**    **317,436**     **110,505**

  **April**       **429,392**     **222**     **13,417**    **217**     **172,451**     **11,595**    **1,045**   **37,147**    **40**    **5**        **50,244**    **320,286**     **101,782**

  **May**         **428,021**     **350**     **12,847**    **435**     **185,408**     **13,157**    **1,281**   **27,487**    **44**    **5**        **52,584**    **319,023**     **106,743**

  **June**        **424,629**     **189**     **17,346**    **153**     **175,866**     **13,943**    **1,245**   **37,014**    **40**    **6**        **52,359**    **319,536**     **108,207**

  **July**        **433,708**     **172**     **14,311**    **131**     **178,749**     **14,936**    **1,612**   **38,416**    **48**    **4**        **45,293**    **316,045**     **109,918**

  **August**      **445,820**     **148**     **13,677**    **120**     **174,555**     **14,118**    **993**     **42,309**    **42**    **2**        **47,514**    **331,188**     **110,686**

  **September**   **423,301**     **258**     **11,030**    **127**     **164,190**     **14,087**    **907**     **42,096**    **42**    **5**        **51,774**    **316,051**     **105,239**

  ** **           ** **           ** **       ** **         ** **       ** **           ** **         ** **       ** **         ** **     ** **        ** **         ** **           ** **

  **Total 2005**  **3,797,683**   **2,089**   **123,466**   **1,513**   **1,552,533**   **110,723**   **9,700**   **336,538**   **385**   **39**       **461,711**   **2,824,441**   **949,887**
  --------------- --------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- --------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- --------- ------------ ------------- --------------- ---------------

\*Source: SAGPyA, Market Department

# Export Sales

The following chart lists the accumulated export sales for the principal
products according to harvest/production cycle. This data is updated
daily by the SAGPyA and is based on declarations made by exporters.

  ----------------- ----------------- -------------------- -----------------
  **Declared Export                                        
  Sales**                                                  

  **Registrations                                          
  through                                                  
  12/2/2005**                                              

  **MT**                                                   

  **Product**       **Daily           **Accumulated        **Harvest/
                    Registered        Registrations**      Production**
                    Sales**                                

  Wheat, Bread      436,000           1,707,017            05/06

  Wheat, Bread      \-                10,344,567           04/05

  Wheat, Bread      \-                9,845,902            03/04

  Corn              100,000           985,000              05/06

  Corn              148,500           12,735,500           04/05

  Corn              \-                11,172,710           03/04

  Popcorn           1,000             5,000                05/06

  Popcorn           800               144,481              04/05

  Flint Corn        7,700             318,518              03/04

  Sorghum           \-                319,596              04/05

  Sorghum           \-                207,105              03/04

  Rice              \-                322,558              2003/2004

  Rice              4,731             292,149              2004/2005

  Rice              \-                1,361                2005/2006
  ----------------- ----------------- -------------------- -----------------

The following data represents export sales commitments by destination
through December 2, 2005, compared to the prior year.

  ----------------------------------- ----------------- -----------------
  **Wheat Export Commitments By                         
  Destination**                                         

  (1000MT through 12/2/2005)                            

                                                         

   Country                            2004/2005         2003/2004

  Algiers                             320               350

  Bangladesh                          410               0

  Brazil                              4175              4800

  Chile                               90                100

  Colombia                            105               120

  Cuba                                80                75

  Egyt                                1200              420

  Indonesia                           350               0

  Iraq                                0                 110

  Jordan                              100               0

  Kenya                               400               470

  Morocco                             210               330

  Nigeria                             85                150

  Peru                                455               325

  South Africa                        545               485

  Sri Lanka                           400               310

  Turkey                              0                 75

  United Arab Emirates                430               0

  Uruguay                             40                150

  Vietnam                             85                0

  Yemen                               250               50

  Other                               1380              995

                                                         

  **TOTAL**                           **11110**         **9315**

                                                        

  Source: Commercial Estimates, Food                    
  Markets Department                                    

                                                        
  ----------------------------------- ----------------- -----------------

  ----------------------------------- ---------------- ------------------
                                                       

  **CORN EXPORT COMMITMENTS BY                         
  DESTINATION**                                        

  1000 MT through 12/2/2005                            

                                                       

  Country                             2004/2005        2003/2004

  Algiers                             685              700

  Brazil                              270              0

  Chile                               765              615

  Colombia                            285              125

  Cyprus                              0                80

  Egypt                               1680             400

  Ghana                               110              0

  Indonesia                           210              0

  Israel                              650              290

  Korea                               250              185

  Malaysia                            1580             700

  Morocco                             1065             380

  Oman                                40               50

  Peru                                940              900

  Portugal                            360              725

  Saudi Arabia                        670              800

  Senegal                             95               0

  South Africa                        210              500

  Spain                               820              750

  Taiwan                              115              0

  Tunisia                             380              250

  Turkey                              0                350

  United Arab Emirates                320              260

  United Kingdom                      0                145

  Vietnam                             60               0

                                                        

  Other                               935              1340

  **TOTAL**                           **12495**        **9545**

                                                       

  Source: Commercial Estimates, Food                   
  Markets Department                                   
  ----------------------------------- ---------------- ------------------

The following is export sales data based on reported purchases, sales,
and shipments.

  --------------- -------------- --------------- ------------ -------------- ---------------- ------- --------------- ------- -------------- -------------- ---------------
  ** **           **Export                                                                                                                   ** **          ** **
                  Sector                                                                                                                                    
                  Purchases -                                                                                                                               
                  Sales -                                                                                                                                   
                  Shipments                                                                                                                                 
                  through                                                                                                                                   
                  11/30/2005**                                                                                                                              

                                 (1000 MT)                                                                                                                   

                                 **Sales**                                   **Declarations                                                                 **Estimated
                                                                             of Purchases**                                                                 Shipments**

  **Product**     **Harvest**    **Potential**   ** **        **Actual**     **Week**         ** **   **Total**       ** **   **Total**      **Total**      **Accumulated
                                                                                                                                                            (\*)**

                                                                             ** **                    **Purchased**           **to Price**   **Priced**     **Market Year**

                  ** **          ** **           ** **        ** **          ** **            ** **   ** **           ** **   ** **          ** **          ** **

                  **05/06**      **6500.0**                   **1271.0**     **218.0**                **1809.9**              **353.5**      **47.1**       ** **

  **Wheat,                       ** **                        **(1182.0)**                            **(2218.8)**            **(423.9)**    **(70.4)**     ** **
  Bread**                                                                                                                                                   

  **(Dec - Nov)** **04/05**      **11150.0**     **(\*\*)**   **11111.9**    **34.3**                 **11989.2**             **1224.0**     **998.8**      **10762.3**

  ** **                          **(9350.0)**                 **(9313.3)**   ** **                    **(9352.9)**            **(1231.3)**   **(872.5)**    **(8596.8)**

  ** **                          ** **                        ** **                                                                                         ** **

  ** **           **05/06**      ** **                        **835.0**      **69.5**                 **1261.3**              **617.8**      **7.7**        ** **

  **Corn**                       ** **                        **(98.0)**                              **(613.2)**             **(436.7)**    **(5.9)**      ** **

  **(Mar-Feb)**   **04/05**      **13000.0**                  **12494.8**    **116.1**                **14085.9**             **2294.2**     **2021.2**     **11976.5**

  ** **                          **(9700.0)**                 **(9544.4)**                            **(9183.1)**            **(1705.8)**   **(1473.6)**   **(8339.3)**

  ** **                          ** **                        ** **                                                                                         ** **

  ** **           **05/06**      ** **                        ** **          **0.3**                  **4.5**                 **0.0**        **0.0**        ** **

  **Sorghum**                    ** **                        ** **                                   **(39.0)**              **(0.0)**      **(0.0)**      ** **

  **(Mar-Feb)**   **04/05**      **700.0**                    **319.6**      **2.5**                  **336.8**               **2.3**        **0.2**        **286.9**

  ** **                          **(400.0)**                  **(204.0)**                             **(211.2)**             **(30.9)**     **(26.6)**     **(153.4)**

  Note: The                                                                                                                                                 
  number in                                                                                                                                                 
  parenthesis                                                                                                                                               
  represents the                                                                                                                                            
  prior year\'s                                                                                                                                             
  harvest on the                                                                                                                                            
  same date.                                                                                                                                                

  (\*) Based on                                                                                                                                             
  actual shipment                                                                                                                                           
  data through                                                                                                                                              
  August. From                                                                                                                                              
  September                                                                                                                                                 
  onwards, based                                                                                                                                            
  on expected                                                                                                                                               
  vessel arrivals                                                                                                                                           
  in ports.                                                                                                                                                 

  (\*\*) In                                                                                                                                                 
  wheat, 1.0 MMT                                                                                                                                            
  included in the                                                                                                                                           
  04/05 harvest                                                                                                                                             
  is from the                                                                                                                                               
  2003/04 harvest                                                                                                                                           
  because it was                                                                                                                                            
  dispatched                                                                                                                                                

  during Dec 2004                                                                                                                                            
  (MY2004/05).                                                                                                                                              

  **Purchases by                                 ** **        ** **                                                                                          
  Industry (1000                                                                                                                                            
  MT)**                                                                                                                                                     

  ** **                          **Estimated**                               **Declared**                                     **Total to**   **Total**       

  ** **                          **Purchases**                               **Purchases**                                    **Price**      **Priced**      

  **Through                                                                                                                                                  
  11/9/2005**                                                                                                                                               

  ** **                                                                                                                                                      

  ** **           **05/06**                      **(\*)**                    **202.8**                                        **135.7**      **15.3**        

  **Wheat,                                                                   **(267.5)**                                      **(177.8)**    **(11.5)**      
  Bread**                                                                                                                                                   

  ** **           **04/05**      **4846.2**                                  **4603.9**                                       **1788.5**     **1565.6**      

  ** **                          **(4174.3)**                                **(3965.6)**                                     **(1703.4)**   **(1369.4)**    

  ** **           ** **          ** **           ** **        ** **          ** **            ** **   ** **           ** **   ** **          ** **           

                                                                                                                                                             

  Source: Food                                                                                                                                               
  Markets                                                                                                                                                   
  Direction,                                                                                                                                                
  SAGPyA                                                                                                                                                    
  --------------- -------------- --------------- ------------ -------------- ---------------- ------- --------------- ------- -------------- -------------- ---------------