Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 5/17/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** ID6009

ID6009

**Indonesia**

**Grain and Feed**

**Corn Update**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Fred R. Kessel

U.S. Embassy, Jakarta

**Prepared by:**

Chris Rittgers/Sugiarti Meylinah

**Report Highlights:**

Post reduced the MY 05/06 Indonesian corn production estimate to 6.9
million tons due to lower than expected output from the first and main
harvest. Prices of domestic corn are above the landed price of imported
corn, and imports are expected to reach 1 million tons in MY 05/06.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Jakarta \[ID1\]

\[ID\]

Table of Contents

[CORN 3](#corn)

[Production 3](#production)

[Trade 3](#trade)

[Price 3](#price)

[PSD TABLE: CORN 4](#psd-table-corn)

# CORN

## Production

Post lowered the corn production estimate for MY 05/06 from previously
7.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons as a result of a prolonged rainy
season and lack of fertilizers that led to crop damage, reduced quality,
hindered drying and reduced output in key producing areas.

Production is expected to rebound to 7.2 million tons in MY 06/07 due to
slight area expansion, increased use of hybrid seeds and solid demand
from the feed industry.

## Trade

In line with the expected loss in production, the demand for corn from
feed industry will be met by imports, now estimated to reach 1 million
tons for MY05/06. Major suppliers of corn to Indonesia are Argentina and
United States. Recent sales of about 350,000 MT are the first
substantial U.S. sales in five years.

## Price

Currently, the price of domestic corn is Rp.1,600/kg (US\$ 180/ton, at
an exchange rate of Rp. 8,895/US\$ 1) compared to Rp 1,450/kg (US\$
163/ton) in April. The landed price of imported corn from U.S. is about
US\$ 150/ton.

The current price for layer feed is Rp. 1,975/kg (US\$ 222/ton) up from
Rp. 1,875/kg (US\$ 210.7/ton) in March while the price of starter
broiler feed currently is Rp. 2,760/kg (US\$ 310.3/ton) up from Rp.
2,660/kg (US\$ 299/ton) in March. The price of finisher broiler feed has
also increased to Rp. 2,660/kg (US\$ 299/ton) compared to Rp. 2,550/kg
(US\$ 286.7/ton) in March.

# PSD TABLE: CORN

  -------------- ----------- ----------------- ---------- ----------------- ---------- -----------------
  PSD Table                                                                            

  Country        Indonesia                                                             

  Commodity      Corn                                                       (1000      
                                                                            HA)(1000   
                                                                            MT)        

                 2004        Revised           2005       Estimate          2006       Forecast

                 USDA        Post              USDA       Post              USDA       Post
                 Official    Estimate\[New\]   Official   Estimate\[New\]   Official   Estimate\[New\]
                 \[Old\]                       \[Old\]                      \[Old\]    

  Market Year                10/2004                      10/2005                      10/2006
  Begin                                                                                

  Area Harvested 3300        3300              3310       3310              3400       3400

  Beginning      979         979               774        829               724        769
  Stocks                                                                               

  Production     7200        7200              7000       6900              7500       7200

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 541         600               800        1000              400        800
  Imports                                                                              

  Oct-Sep        541         600               800        1000              400        800
  Imports                                                                              

  Oct-Sep Import 0           0                 0          0                 0          0
  U.S.                                                                                 

  TOTAL SUPPLY   8720        8779              8574       8729              8624       8769

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 46          50                50         60                50         60
  Exports                                                                              

  Oct-Sep        46          50                50         60                50         60
  Exports                                                                              

  Feed Dom.      3700        3700              3900       4000              4200       4200
  Consumption                                                                          

  TOTAL Dom.     7900        7900              7800       7900              8000       8000
  Consumption                                                                          

  Ending Stocks  774         829               724        769               574        709

  TOTAL          8720        8779              8574       8729              8624       8769
  DISTRIBUTION                                                                         
  -------------- ----------- ----------------- ---------- ----------------- ---------- -----------------

F:/GAIN/Final GAIN Report/GF/Corn Update0605.doc