**NATIONAL AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM**

**Strategic Plan**

Joint Action Group/Aviation Weather

April 1997

NATIONAL AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM COUNCIL

Mr. Julian M. Wright, Jr., Chairman

Federal Coordinator

Dr. Susan F. Zevin

Department of Commerce

Brig. Gen. Fred P. Lewis, USAF

Department of Defense

Mr. Neil Planzer

Federal Aviation Administration

Mr. Glenn Smith

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Mr. James Skeen

National Transportation Safety Board

Mr. Albert Peterlin

Department of Agriculture

Mr. Donald R. Carver, Executive Secretary

Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

***FOREWORD***

As aviation moves into the 21^st^ century, safety remains our primary
goal, both in the minds of the operations personnel who fly, manage,
guide and regulate aircraft of all classes and in the minds of the
public. Aviation weather is one of the key inherent elements of flying.
This is also a realm in which improvements in specific areas can lead
directly to a decrease in the number and rate of aircraft accidents.
Such improvements can also have a significant impact on the efficiency
of the National Airspace System. To start making the future clearer, I
have directed our participation in the formulation of this strategic
plan for aviation weather; this plan exercises FAA's leadership role in
aviation, but also, by necessity, requires the cooperation of several
federal agencies such as the National Weather Service, the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Defense, as
well as of private industry.

This document describes a strategy for ensuring that the National
Aviation Weather System will be positioned to cope with increasing
demands and changing technologies. The strategy provides significant way
points as targets for agency interaction, industry investment, and
policy evolution. It is not a "how-to" manual, but a beacon to navigate
by. It incorporates the thoughts of many expert groups, such as the
National Research Council and the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, as well as some original team vision as assembled by the
planning team.

This document is the result of intense effort and interagency
cooperation by the members of the Joint Action Group for Aviation
Weather, working under the auspices of the National Aviation Weather
Program Council. In working together to assemble this Strategic Plan,
they have provided a model for further cooperative efforts by the larger
aviation community. It is my hope that you will read this document,
become energized by the vision put forth, and commit your efforts to the
task of successful implementation.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration

***PREFACE***

Following the challenge set down by the National Research Council's
report, *Aviation Weather Services --- A Call for Federal Leadership and
Action* (November 1995), the National Aviation Weather Program Council
(NAWPC), chartered by the agencies under the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology, directed its Joint Action Group (JAG) to develop this
National Aviation Weather Strategic Plan.

This Strategic Plan, developed as the result of the intense cooperative
efforts of the JAG members***,*** is not only a vision for the Federal
government but one for the entire aviation community. The airline
industry, as users of weather information, and the public-private
sector, as providers of weather information, are not only partners in
insuring the safest and most efficient National Airspace System, but
also the experts and drivers for developing and incorporating the
necessary technology to make it happen. The NAWPC member agencies are
committed to the vision of this Strategic Plan and will work together to
bring its goals to fruition through follow-on implementation planning.

NATIONAL AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM COUNCIL

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Mr. Julian M. Wright, Chairman

Federal Coordinator

+-------------------------------+--------------------------------------+
| \_\_\_\_\_\                   | \_\_                                 |
| _\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ | \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ |
|                               |                                      |
| Dr. Susan Zevin               | Mr. Glenn Smith                      |
|                               |                                      |
| National Weather Service      | National Aeronautics and Space       |
|                               | Administration                       |
+-------------------------------+--------------------------------------+
| \_\_\_\_\_\                   | \_\_                                 |
| _\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ | \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ |
|                               |                                      |
| Mr. Neil Planzer              | Mr. James Skeen                      |
|                               |                                      |
| Federal Aviation              | National Transportation Safety Board |
| Administration                |                                      |
+-------------------------------+--------------------------------------+
| \_\_\_\_\_\                   | \_\_                                 |
| _\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ | \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ |
|                               |                                      |
| Brig Gen Fred P. Lewis, USAF  | Mr. Albert Peterlin                  |
|                               |                                      |
| Department of Defense         | U.S. Department of Agriculture       |
+-------------------------------+--------------------------------------+

***THE VISION***

In 1997, aviation is part of America's lifeblood. Aviation is a major
industry. Aircraft tie the country together and play a role in nearly
every facet of society. Currently, weather is a primary or contributing
factor in roughly one-third of all aviation accidents. Statistics show
that the Aviation Weather System is successful, but clearly not
flawless. The nation is already making the serious commitment of
resources necessary to build and refine an infrastructure capable of
coping with weather-related hazards to all classes of aviation. A safe,
efficient National Air Space depends on maintaining our aviation weather
capabilities. Today's infrastructure is complex, cutting across many
agencies to serve the nation. It is essential that we maintain and
evolve this Aviation Weather System to provide a solid foundation for
meeting our goals.

By the year 2007, air traffic volume is expected to double; the stresses
on an already busy infrastructure can only increase with this growth. As
the demands grow, as the numbers of passengers increase, as new routes
are opened, the risk of weather-related accidents will grow. Only if the
government and the private sector are committed to the diligent
maintenance, carefully-planned integration, and technical evolution of
the Aviation Weather System, it will be possible to say that\....

***The weather-related safety and efficiency in the conduct of aviation
within the National Air Space has improved substantially.*** National
Air Space operations personnel -- pilots, controllers, dispatchers, etc
-- are able to make ***highly informed and accurate decisions***
relating to weather's impact on flight safety and efficiency in any
situation.

***The weather information being provided to the decision-making process
is accurate and reliable**.* Human observers and automated aviation
weather systems are able to rapidly, reliably, and frequently tap
surface-based, airborne, and space-based sensors to obtain the key
pieces of information needed to adequately describe conditions impinging
on flight operations. Analyses and forecasts are clear, concise, and
easily understood by those who must ultimately use them. Products are
consistent and reliable, regardless of the provider, because data and
analysis standards are universally accepted.

In addition, ***decision makers are better equipped to know what to do
with the information as they receive it***. End users of the
information - pilots, dispatchers, controllers, and operational
personnel in all sectors - can quickly receive tailored weather products
and, with a minimum of analysis, use them to identify accurately
conditions to avoid, conditions to engage, and specific mission-limiting
factors. Aircraft designers are able to fully specify the weather
"envelope" in which their products can safely operate and also to design
aircraft which are more capable of dealing with adverse conditions.
Operational personnel can rely on both specific training programs and
clearly defined procedures to guide them to safe, effective decisions.

The Nation's airspace is being managed to full capacity, safely and
efficiently, through the ***cooperative action of Federal agencies
working under the umbrella of the National Aviation Weather System**.*
The System is composed of interagency components: aviation weather
products, a modern operational delivery system, and research and
development support. These various components are able to work together
within a ***framework of institutional commitments*** that actively
monitors the System, evaluating and building on its successes and making
improvements. The System has strong ties to commercial, private, and
international organizations so that the multiple synergies -- between
users and providers; among government, commercial, military, and private
sectors; between researchers and end-users -- are focused on improving
weather-related safety and efficiency. Clear, well-planned, and
integrated capital investment strategies are in place. ***Research***
has been brought to bear on those areas clearly in need of advancement.
The National Aviation Weather System provides the best possible
decision-making capacity to the aviation community to meet its single
goal: safe, efficient air travel, with minimal weather-related risks.

***TABLE OF CONTENTS***

***A Letter from the FAA Administrator*** iii

***Preface*** v

***The Vision*** vi

***Table of Contents*** ix

***1. Introduction*** 1

***2. Relevance to the Nation*** 5

***3. Strategic Elements*** 9

***4. Agency Roles and Missions*** 23

***5. Implementation of the Plan*** 27

***1. INTRODUCTION***

***Background***

Aviation is central to the American way of life because it permeates
nearly every facet of our business, industry, and recreation. The
Federal Aviation Administration estimates that commercial aircraft
logged nearly 10 million hours airborne in 1994, while General Aviation
aircraft logged over 20 million hours. U.S. commercial carriers reported
over 100 billion passenger miles in 1994. All projections indicate an
increase in aviation usage in the coming decades.

Aviation, perhaps more than any other readily available mode of
transportation today, is strongly impacted by weather conditions. As we
shall see in Chapter 2, weather is a leading cause of aviation
accidents. The atmosphere is continually adjusting to the forces
operating on it from within and without. A patch of sky that may be
quite benign to aircraft one moment can, within hours, or even minutes,
become an extremely hazardous place to fly an airplane. Weather
conditions, good or bad, play a major role in the safe and efficient
flight of every aircraft. The timely, precise, and accurate
identification and localization of what are termed aviation impact
variables -- that is, weather-related conditions, such as icing or wind
shear, which may or may not be directly observable but which can
significantly threaten flight safety and efficiency -- is of crucial
importance. As in-flight weather changes, an aircraft's performance
changes. Operational personnel -- pilots, controllers, dispatchers, etc.
-- must be able to obtain up-to-date weather information and be able to
assess its impact on flight conditions intelligently in order to safely
operate aircraft in a variety of weather regimes. The aim of all Federal
agencies involved in aviation is to ensure that every effort within
their agency's scope is made to reduce aviation risks to an absolute
minimum. The aviation weather community is committed to reducing the
negative impacts of weather on flight operations and increasing the
economic advantages of using weather information as a traffic management
tool.

***Purpose***

The purpose of this Strategic Plan is to provide an interagency focus
for the task of providing the improved information and tools needed to
allow aviation personnel to make sound and safe decisions regarding
weather hazards. It was written with the understanding that, while not
every Federal agency involved has a specific aviation weather mission
and goal, all agencies involved have a stake in weather-related safety.
This Plan sets strategic objectives for the overall National Aviation
Weather Program, provides guidance to agencies for their internal
planning processes, and establishes a process for implementing the
Program and reviewing progress in the refinement of the existing
National Aviation Weather System.

This Strategic Plan does not provide the aviation weather expert with a
detailed discussion of many facets of the subject. Instead, it focuses
on general themes and directions in order to maintain the vision for the
aviation weather system. By design, this Strategic Plan establishes a
general course heading that allows each agency the flexibility to draw
on its own strengths in order to best achieve the overall national
goals.

***Scope***

This Strategic Plan discusses aviation weather strategy in terms of four
tasks:

\- improving weather information acquisition, analysis, production, and
dissemination,

\- enhancing decision makers' abilities to apply weather information,

\- establishing institutional arrangements for improving both the
information and the ability of decision makers to use it, and

\- encouraging research and development in the area of aviation weather.

This Plan has been assembled with the awareness that both an information
provider community and an information user community exist. The
providers

(meteorological observers, analysts, forecasters, briefing officers,
controllers, commercial providers) know what they can currently observe
and what information they can reliably produce. The requirements of the

users (pilots, dispatchers, flight operations personnel, traffic
managers, controllers) must be balanced with the abilities of the
providers in order to produce a sensible strategy, while

taking into account changing trends in both communities.

***Program Goal***

The goal of the National Aviation Weather Program is to enhance the
ability of the existing Aviation Weather System to effectively produce
and provide aviation weather information and take steps to ensure that
the users of the System can effectively apply that information to make
sound operational decisions that lead to a reduced number of
weather-related aviation accidents and increasingly efficient use of the
National Air Space. Corollaries to this goal which are also desirable
include reducing weather-related delays in commercial aviation,
improving mission effectiveness for military operations, reducing excess
costs in fuel usage due to weather, improving productivity in Federal
aviation weather activities in light of increasingly strained resource
levels, developing a streamlined observation and communications system,
and increasing the positive role a knowledge of future weather
conditions can have on safe and efficient flight operations. But, above
all, the goal is improved aviation safety in all sectors -- commercial,
military, and general.

***Implementation***

The National Aviation Weather Program can only really be implemented
successfully through a joint effort of all government agencies involved
in aviation, working in concert with pilot organizations and commercial
entities. The oversight vehicle for implementation is the National
Aviation Weather Program Council. This Council, which is part of the
coordinating structure of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM), is composed of
senior representatives from Federal agencies involved in
aviation-related activities. Each Council member acts on behalf of his
or her Federal agency and speaks for that agency on matters of scope,
requirements, and resources. The Council thus provides oversight and
guidance to ensure that agency roles are realistic and lead to a
convergence of effort in implementing this Strategic Plan. The Council
must also ensure that the interests of each agency are addressed within
the Plan. The Council also oversees periodic Plan reviews to provide
"mid-course corrections" as needed as well as maintain momentum as the
Plan progresses.

***2. RELEVANCE TO THE NATION***

Aviation is a critical part of our national infrastructure. As we have
seen, aircraft in the United States log millions of flight hours each
year. Tens of thousands of people board U.S. air carriers and private
aircraft every day. Similar numbers pass through U.S. air space daily.
Air superiority is a keystone of our national defense policy.

The dominant concerns of the aviation industry, and of the Federal
agencies that support it, are safety and efficiency. As long as aircraft
can be flown safely, the industry can continue to prosper. Thus the
industry continually seeks new ways to improve an already exceptional
safety record.

***Weather-related Accidents***

The connection between safe and efficient aviation and weather is
readily apparent. Weather alone is a significant cause of aircraft
accidents and a contributing cause in many accidents with other main
causes. Weather is also the single most important cause of delays.

The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Air Safety Foundation
reported that between 1982 and 1993 a total of 5,894 weather-related
General Aviation accidents occurred (roughly 27% of all accidents.)
These resulted in 1,750 fatalities and an annual loss of \$784 million.

![](media/image1.emf){width="3.5in" height="2.173611111111111in"}

During a similar period (1983-1995) the National Transportation Safety
Board identified weather as a causative factor in 112 accidents and
incidents (33% of the total in commercial aviation) leading to 13
fatalities and 58 serious injuries, loss of 8 aircraft and substantial
damage to 34 others. The estimated annual cost of these accidents is
\$30.5 million. Weather was also cited as a contributing, but not
primary, factor in 596 accidents leading to 635 fatalities.

The types of weather conditions cited in these accident reports included
thunderstorms, crosswinds, icing, low visibility, microbursts, and
whiteouts.

***Delays and Diversions***![](media/image2.emf){width="3.0in"
height="2.2159722222222222in"}

Delays and diversions caused by adverse weather can be extremely costly.
Passenger time lost, hotel charges incurred, additional fuel costs, crew
change costs, equipment costs, and additional servicing costs -- all
these add up to significant unplanned and unbudgeted expenditures that
make flying more expensive, both for the passengers and for the
industry. Again, not all diversions can be avoided, but improved traffic
management, using weather information as a tool, could do a great deal
toward reducing their occurrence and cost.

The types of weather that cause delays and diversions include
thunderstorms, snow storms, fog, poor visibility, freezing rain, icing,
crosswinds, and en route turbulence.

***Military Aviation***

Military aircraft are subject to the same factors that can cause
accidents and delays in civilian aircraft. However, these factors can be
critical for priority missions. A delay or diversion can lead to
increased operational costs and additional strain on dwindling
resources.

Military aviation also suffers from the added constraint of mission
objectives. A weather-related accident, delay, or diversion can not just
lead to the failure to deliver materiel to a specific destination, but
also the failure to deliver armaments to designated targets. In many
cases avoiding hazardous weather may not be an option for a military
mission. This places an even higher premium on accurate, timely weather
information and predictions, especially when conditions such as poor
visibility or adverse wind conditions at a target can dictate the types
of armaments used in a mission.

At times, such as during war or contingencies, the military must call
upon the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) to meet its need for increased
airlift capability. Quality weather support is critical to CRAF mission
success and to the nation's success in the rapid deployment of military
power on a global scale to protect vital national interests. Providing
this support necessitates interoperability between military and civilian
weather support systems and a comprehensive worldwide weather support
database. Worldwide weather support to the CRAF, if activated, should be
seamless. Civilian and military weather agencies must collaborate on
cooperative agreements to ensure that the necessary infrastructure is in
place and available to provide timely weather support to the CRAF when
needed.

***National Spending for Aviation Weather***

The Federal government already makes a considerable investment in the
Aviation Weather System through the funding of day-to-day operations,
purchase of new systems, and upgrades to existing systems. The following
table illustrates the magnitude of this investment.

+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| **Aviation      |              |                    |                 |
| Weather         |              |                    |                 |
| Funding**       |              |                    |                 |
|                 |              |                    |                 |
| **(in millions; |              |                    |                 |
| not adjusted    |              |                    |                 |
| for             |              |                    |                 |
| inflation)**    |              |                    |                 |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
|                 | OPS          | Research           | Total           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1990            | 622.2        | 15.2               | 637.4           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1991            | 696.2        | 16.4               | 712.6           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1992            | 622.9        | 29.9               | 652.8           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1993            | 746.8        | 46.4               | 793.2           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1994            | 739.2        | 63.1               | 802.3           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+
| 1995            | 787.2        | 73.1               | 860.3           |
+-----------------+--------------+--------------------+-----------------+

Source: OFCM Federal Plans

Currently, 324 private firms exist which provide independent forecasting
and prediction services to all type of industries, including aviation.
This trend is also expected to increase.

***The Immediate Future***

The aviation industry is evolving into the next century. The advent of
the Global Positioning System and the gradual extension of free flight
is leading to major changes in the nation's Air Traffic System. Free
flight, for example, will focus flight planning on finding the most
direct (and efficient) route through "good" airspaces. This will greatly
increase the demand for accurate knowledge about a larger number of
potential routes. The demand for improved aviation weather services can
only increase. In fact, the clear identification of weather hazards and
operationally favorable winds may be the biggest benefit for a free
flight reroute.

In addition, the next century will see a sharp increase in international
aviation. More areas of the globe are experiencing expanded commercial
service, especially in the longer

haul routes to Latin America and the Pacific Rim. The FAA estimates that
the number of passenger enplanements to Latin America and the Pacific
will double between 1995 and 2007, while enplanements on flights across
the Atlantic will increase by 75%. Total passenger miles are expected to
nearly double.

![](media/image3.emf){width="2.8in" height="2.370138888888889in"}

Couple these trends with a predicted gradual increase in U.S. General
Aviation hours (following a sharp decrease from 1990 to 1995 due to
economic factors) and the result is clear: *more planes and people in
the air, flying longer distances more often*. And the more of the globe
a single flight spans, the more chance it has to run into hazardous
weather. Even though the current aviation

accident rate is dropping, the absolute number of accidents is likely to
rise.![](media/image4.emf){width="3.0in" height="2.25in"}

***Farther Out***

Advances in aviation will not only lead to more demands on the National
Aviation Weather System but will also create new demands. The increased
use of supersonic aircraft will mean that weather-related decisions must
be made more quickly. Areas of responsibility for air and space weather
will eventually merge in relation to aviation. The development of the
"Space Plane" will lead to flight through the ionosphere and beyond,
requiring much deeper understanding than we currently possess as to how
conditions in the region of space surrounding the planet will affect
flight operations, and, conversely, how specific routes will impact the
ionosphere from an environmental perspective. Actually, this latter need
is already apparent as aviation, along with nearly every other sector of
society, relies more and more heavily on electronic communications
systems, which are strongly affected by magnetic storms, for every facet
of operations.

***Summary***

As the aviation industry grows in many directions, so will the need for
improved weather information, quickly and accurately delivered to
aviation decision makers who are well-equipped to assess its meaning and
make decisions that will directly impact the safety of aircraft. To meet
current needs, as well as to prepare for the future, the nation needs a
well-crafted, well-coordinated Aviation Weather Program.

***3. STRATEGIC ELEMENTS***

In order to provide a broad framework, the National Aviation Weather
Strategic Plan has been separated into four national tasks. Each of
these four tasks spans a wide range of topics. Some topics are part of
more than one task.

The first two national tasks, ***improving weather information*** and
***improving the ability to use the information***, are central to this
Strategic Plan and reflect the complementary nature of the roles of the
providers (meteorological observers, analysts, forecasters, briefing
officers, controllers, commercial providers) and the users (pilots,
dispatchers, flight operations personnel, traffic managers,
controllers). First, weather information must be collected, processed,
analyzed, and disseminated in a manner that rapidly and reliably
provides the users with the desired level of information. Second, the
decision makers/users must be able to employ this information
intelligently to make critical choices based on well-founded knowledge
and established procedures.

The third task, ***forging institutional arrangements***, can be looked
at as a Plan framework. The appropriate links between participating
institutions must be forged in order for the National Aviation Weather
System to evolve more efficiently and economically to meet the changing
needs of flight operations. No one organization can "go it alone" and
expect to accomplish what must be done.

If institutional arrangements are the framework of the Plan, then the
fourth task, ***directing and utilizing research related to aviation
weather,*** is the foundation. Many forms of research, from basic
science to application of new and existing technologies, are now and
will continue to be necessary to help the nation move toward the goal of
zero weather-related accidents. The operational aviation weather
community must clearly communicate its requirements to the researchers
and continually evaluate emerging research results and adopt new methods
that will improve the National Aviation Weather System. On the other
hand, the research community should be constantly looking for fruitful
new avenues to pursue to meet operational needs.

The description of the strategic elements that are required to carry out
these four national tasks forms the remainder of this section. It will
become clear that the "boundaries" between tasks are by no means rigid
and that much crosstalk will be required to execute them.

***Improving Weather Information***

Aircraft operate in weather of all types; weather can be exploited for
advantage or it can be a safety hazard. Pilots can try to divert around
hazards such as thunderstorms, clear-air turbulence, wind shear zones,
icing zones, but only if they quickly recognize the phenomenon and its
location relative to their aircraft. The necessary information can only
be gained by a comprehensive knowledge of the state of the atmosphere in
three space dimensions and in time, on scales small enough to resolve
the highly localized weather hazards to operations and over areas large
enough to take a full flight/mission plan into account. Improving
weather information is dependent on ensuring that quality training be
received both by the individuals providing the information and by those
receiving it. The use of weather simulation technologies would be an
improvement to both training programs.

***Establishing Requirements:*** It is clear that the user community has
a responsibility to make sure that they indeed know their own
requirements and convey them clearly. Users, providers, and researchers
must work together continuously to establish, understand, refine, and
adjust what the mission requirements are so that providers can deliver
products that are tailored to specific functions. Users must focus on
their own procedures to determine both what is essential and to whom.
They must be prepared not only to pinpoint where in the operational
scheme each type and format of information is most valuable, but also to
obtain and install the equipment necessary to receive, display, and
integrate new products. Users must also focus outward to be sure that
their requirements are stated clearly and unambiguously to providers.
Agencies need to cooperate to ensure that the user requirements are
clearly understood.

One way to ascertain user requirements is to hold periodic User Forums.
For example, the 1993 National Aviation Weather Users' Forum established
a consensus among pilots and dispatchers of high priority weather
information needs. The results can be summarized as follows:

+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| High Priority Needs               |                                   |
|                                   |                                   |
| (Significant Weather)             |                                   |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| • convective activity/initiation  | • icing and freezing altitude     |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| • lightning                       | • microburst/gust front           |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| • low altitude wind shear         | • widespread low visibility       |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| • clear air and other turbulence  | • volcanic ash                    |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+

A list such as this serves as an excellent starting point for discussion
between users and providers on issues such as timeliness, format, and
relevance.

***Data Collection*:** The amount of meteorological data routinely
collected is massive, and yet it is not sufficient to build a complete
depiction of the instantaneous state of the world-wide atmosphere. While
large land areas (North America, Europe, Australia, parts of Asia) are
fairly well covered, major portions of the globe (Africa, South America,
most of Asia, and all of the

oceanic regions) are data sparse. Even in the data-rich areas, it can be
exceptionally difficult to accurately identify areas where conditions
are hazardous to aircraft operations. Our ability to isolate wind shear
zones, clear-air turbulence, icing conditions, and low
ceiling/visibility regions is often limited. The National Aviation
Weather System must provide the network of dense, relevant observations
needed to form an accurate assessment of the state of the atmosphere.
This can be accomplished by redefining and perhaps redirecting the role
of human observers, establishing more collection sites, adding
increasingly more sophisticated ground-based automated observing
systems, and integrating evolving satellite-based technology and
aircraft-based sensors and reports into the system. Emphasis also needs
to be placed on accurate and timely pilot reports (PIREPS) and
observations which are specifically aviation-related in order to
identify phenomena which can be short-lived and
localized.![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in" height="0.0in"}

***Data Assimilation and Analysis:*** Although expanding the areal
coverage and types of observations should lead to improved analysis of
the state of the atmosphere, careful consideration must be given to how
these data are utilized. New sources of familiar data, such as new and
increasingly more common aircraft-based sensors, will expand the types
and amounts of data entering the analysis stream. New approaches to data
acquisition, such as the ingesting of satellite-based atmospheric
sounders, and even totally new observational parameters represent
significant challenges to analysis. And yet all of these data need to be
rapidly assimilated into analysis procedures, and those procedures need
to be tailored to meet the deadlines, format, and resolution of
localized aviation needs. This will require careful assessment of how
best to use new data, how to make it useful for both local and regional
analyses, and what specific conditions to analyze for. Considerable
interaction will be required among the provider community, after
consideration of users needs, in order to accomplish this goal.

***Forecasting:*** If the assimilation and analysis aspect of the
National Aviation Weather System provides the accurate depiction of the
state of the atmosphere for the aviation community, then the forecasting
aspect uses that depiction to inform the user of what is likely to
happen in the near future. While a knowledge of the here-and-now weather
is vital for immediate aircraft operations, a foreknowledge of the
when-and-where is also required for continued safe operation, especially
as longer commercial routes open up. The National Aviation Weather
System must provide the best possible projection of aviation impact
variables over time periods and space scales of interest. This will
require ensuring that all available observations are routinely provided
to the national forecast centers (civilian and military) and assuring
that the observations meet minimum standards for resolution, timeliness,
and format. It will also require that forecasters be more highly
trained. In addition, emphasis must be placed on identifying the levels
of forecast accuracy required by specific users for specific operational
decisions, determining whether or not these needs are currently being
met, and assembling the combination of resources and effort that would
be needed to eliminate deficiencies. Special attention must be paid to
remote regions where aircraft operate routinely.

***Dissemination:*** Raw data must be entered into the assimilation,
analysis, and prediction stream as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Finished products must be provided to all end users rapidly enough to be
of use. A parity of information must be attained; products derived from
a common information base must be tailored to the needs of end users and
delivered where they need it. The flow of information in the
data/product pipeline must move with maximum efficiency to meet the
goals of the aviation weather program. To accomplish this, new
techniques of moving data into the stream, using enhanced technologies
and greater communications capacities must be developed. At the same
time, on the outgoing end of the stream, care must be taken that the
pipeline is not clogged with unnecessary data, but that users get the
products and information they need to make their decisions in a timely
manner. Multiple, varied systems will be required for sending
information, rather than taking a "one size fits all" approach, since
receiving platforms are not likely to be equipped uniformly. Some users
may need specific packets of information sent to them, others may be
able to intelligently query the weather database for specific needs.
Attention must be paid to surface-to-surface, surface-to-air, and even
satellite-to-air communications paths. Once again, agencies will need to
cooperate to bring this to fruition.

***Tailoring:*** It is clear that operational decision makers need to
have access to the information they need to know about the atmosphere,
but do not need to be burdened with sorting through all available
information to find the relevant pieces. A diligent effort is needed to
bring together users and providers -- conducting decision-making
research and simulation, as well as operational testing. That is, the
National Aviation Weather System must strive to deliver what is required
to whomever needs it when it is required. Providers must understand user
needs at all stages of flight operations, since "what is required" will
vary as a mission progresses from pre-flight preparation to in-flight
operation to mission objective to touch down. Indeed, requirements are
most likely to be airframe-specific, mission-specific, and
destination-specific. Once this understanding of specific user
requirements is gained, providers can then work to fill those needs from
available information.![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in"
height="0.0in"}

***Product Presentation:*** Simply handing information to the user is
not sufficient in the aviation context, where tasks are complex and
distractions are constant. The format the information takes must also be
tailored to the situation so that the receiver recognizes that the
incoming product is of value. In some instances, graphic products are
called for; in others, textual products; in still others, audible
messages may be the best way to convey information quickly and
accurately. The National Aviation Weather System must provide users with
products that inform them in easily recognizable form of current and
changing weather conditions*,* with special emphasis on present or
emerging hazards. This will require careful planning and coordination
between providers and users, access to and application of evolving
graphic display capabilities, improvement of communications capabilities
to ensure that required products can be reliably transmitted,
understanding of the work patterns of the various types of users to
determine the most suitable media for conveying information, and
understanding of human factors in information perception to develop
standardized depictions of the various aspects of the weather products.

***Using Weather Information More Effectively***

Getting concise, accurate, timely, and relevant information to the end
users is only part of what must be done to allow operational personnel
to make sound decisions. Operational personnel must also be able to draw
on adequate background knowledge to make those decisions in an informed
manner. They must know how to interpret the products they receive. They
must understand the importance of the information. They must know how it
relates to flight safety. They must have well-established procedures for
implementing their decisions.

***Requirements:*** The requirements development process takes on a
different perspective when it comes to utilization. In this case the
focus is on the use and application of aviation weather products and
services. When considering requirements in terms of utilization it is a
question of how the tools should be applied and what procedures and
rules need to be established for their use. It becomes more than just a
matter of providing a particular service or product -- it also includes
procedure development, rule making, and training. The objective of the
process, for both users and providers, is to develop procedures and
training that assure that users are able to obtain the maximum possible
advantage from a new aviation weather product or service.

The cooperative aspect of developing requirements becomes particularly
important in this case. The understanding of user needs is critical, but
the perspective is somewhat different. It is absolutely essential that
the providers understand not only the users' requirements but also the
environment they face. Providers need to be able to write procedures,
training curricula, and rules that are both practical and optimal in the
users' operating arena.

Developing utilization requirements cannot be done by any one single
agency -- it has to be a cooperative undertaking. Specific
organizations, including the FAA and the Department of Defense, are
charged with developing procedures and rules for use in managing the Air
Traffic System, but they cannot and should not do this alone. The
developers of aviation weather products need to be involved, as do the
users of the products. This philosophy recognizes that the requirements
process does not end at a specific point. No demarcation point exists
that says "this is where the requirements process ends and the
development process begins." That would be neither efficient nor
logical. The requirements process is a continual back-and-forth exchange
of information and views that links users and developers at all stages
in the path to bringing a new product or service into the National
Aviation Weather System.

The requirements development process, to be efficient and effective,
must be iterative. It must include the entire aviation community --
weather professionals, controllers, dispatchers, pilots, and system
managers (usually the ones charged with writing the procedures) -- and
it must contain provision for continual feedback, since it is vital that
users get the most out of these services. The aviation weather

community must and will develop a cooperative and highly linked
requirements development process. ATC professionals, users, and
developers from every field will be asked for input, comment, and
feedback. This process must occur through a continuing series of user
forums, special user/provider focus groups, and public comment.

***Training and Education:*** All aircraft operations personnel need to
undergo regular training in order to do their jobs safely as the
industry changes. Specific programs for weather-related safety training
must be developed, especially for the general aviation community. Pilot
training at all levels in both civilian and military aviation must
include weather as a requisite area of knowledge. Agencies must
cooperate amongst themselves and with pilot organizations from all
classes of aviation to reach the broadest possible

civilian pilot base. Tailored training for controllers, dispatchers, and
traffic management personnel must emphasize the importance of weather
hazards and explain the uses of improved products.

***Simulations:*** The aviation industry, perhaps more than any other
sector of society, relies on simulations for operational training.
Commercial and military pilots are required to put in time in large
scale simulators, and general aviation pilots are encouraged to do so.
Simulator experience is a key part of pilot training, since it allows a
pilot to gain familiarity with a situation in a controlled environment,
before he or she actually encounters it in the air. Aviation weather
information must be integrated into simulations, not only to demonstrate
realistic conditions, but also to acquaint pilots with the scope and
intensity of aviation hazards. In addition, simulations with embedded
enhanced weather products could be adapted to understand pilot
operational decision-making. To accomplish this across the board,
agencies must work with simulator designers to include increasingly
accurate weather scenarios. Also, easily portable simulators must be
developed for the General Aviation community.

***Safety Programs:*** Concurrent with the need for procedural training
related to weather is the need for aviation weather safety programs.
Personnel involved in making aviation safety decisions must understand
why and how weather can be not only an operational obstacle but also a
major hazard to flight safety. The comments made in the training and
education section apply here also. All agencies and organizations
involved in aircraft safety need to cooperate to ensure that safety
training is done routinely, not as a special event.

***Mishap Investigation:*** Investigators responsible for establishing
the causes of aviation accidents need reliable weather information and
the knowledge to assess how it may have contributed to the incident. The
results of investigations can be used to plan safety training programs
and also, quite possibly, to highlight deficiencies in the data, the
analysis, the forecast, the information products being generated, or in
the interpretation of the products by operators.

***Forging Institutional Arrangements***

Aviation is a factor throughout our society. Thus the responsibility for
weather-related aviation safety cuts across a wide swath of the Federal
government. Each agency has responsibility for a different aspect of the
aviation arena; no one agency has overall authority. The Departments of
Transportation (Federal Aviation Administration/FAA), Commerce (National
Weather Service/NWS), Defense (Air Force, Army, Navy, Marine Corps), and
Agriculture (Forest Service) all have an active role to play, as do the
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA.) All agencies have a vital interest in
aviation safety. The OFCM plays a key role by providing a mechanism for
interagency coordination and cooperation in aviation weather services.

***Interorganizational coordination:*** Because aviation impacts so many
sectors of society, cooperation among the various Federal agencies
involved is crucial. Such cooperation is already a significant factor in
the present aviation weather structure. The well-established
interactions among Center Weather Service Units (NWS), Weather Forecast
Offices (NWS), and the Air Route Traffic Control Centers (FAA) in
providing aviation weather services to aviators and the aviation
industry is a fundamental example of such institutional arrangements. A
similar example is seen in the coordination among the National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NWS), the U.S. Air Force Global Weather
Center (DoD), and the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
Oceanography Center (DoD) to share data for mesoscale and global
forecast models.

The point is that such arrangements must be expanded. Data must be
shared. Large-scale systems must be made interoperable. Analysis tools
and techniques must be jointly developed and tested. Where requirements
are identical, redundancy can be eliminated. Where deficiencies exist,
mutual cooperation can be brought to bear. Where special requirements
are needed, they should be met. The National Aviation Weather System
needs to be highly integrated to operate efficiently across multiple
agencies. Agencies must become cognizant of each other's needs and
strengths and work to integrate these into a cohesive system.

***Program Monitoring and Oversight*:** Since so many organizations have
aviation-related responsibilities, the task of monitoring the
functioning of the National Aviation Weather System will need to be a
coordinated effort also. A forum is needed for establishing current and
evolving requirements of the

System, recommending agency and non-governmental responsibilities,
identifying and building on successes, correcting inadequacies, and
maintaining the cross-agency and external liaisons so vital to the
System. The National Aviation Weather Program Council is the forum,
since it already represents the full spectrum of federal aviation
weather interests. However, the oversight forum should be expanded to
include industry, private, and academic interests in order to take full
advantage of the wide range of aviation experience in the U.S.

***Non-Federal Aviation Weather Systems**:* Although the Federal
government has the dominant role in aviation weather, state and local
governments and private concerns also own and operate airports and
provide weather services. Users need to be confident that weather
information obtained from any source is reliable and consistent, though
not necessarily identical, across the entire spectrum of providers. To
take advantage of non-Federal capabilities, as well as to ensure that
all providers attain a minimum standard of proficiency, the National
Aviation Weather System needs to attain the optimum integration of
non-Federal systems into the evolving National System. This will require
close coordination with state, local, and private providers to develop
joint standards for information and to identify areas where non-Federal
providers can be more effectively used to enlarge the scope and accuracy
of aviation weather information.

***International Coordination:*** Aviation is a truly international
undertaking. United States aircraft fly in foreign airspace; foreign
aircraft fly in U.S. air space. For this reason, the U.S. government has
agreed to conform as much as possible to standards set by international
agencies such as ICAO and WMO. The goal of the National Aviation Weather
System should be to provide high quality, seamless aviation weather
information in the international environment. Federal agencies need to
take a leadership role in establishing international standards for
aviation weather information, encouraging other nations' investments in
improving and expanding their systems, ensuring that data and research
are shared among participating nations, and recommending that they
extend observational capabilities into remote regions of the world.

***Establishing Requirements:*** It is important to realize that the
relationship between providers and users is both interactive and
evolutionary. Users may not know all of their requirements until they
see new directions in capability offered by providers. Likewise,
providers may not know what new directions of weather capability would
be of value until the users tell them. By conducting operational testing
of capabilities in concert with users, providers can make their products
more effective. In addition, open-systems architecture and commercial
off-the-shelf systems will allow evolutionary products to enter the
operational system with greater speed and effectiveness. Conducting such
testing and establishing such architectures can only be accomplished
through interagency cooperation.

***Standardization:*** If the necessary synergies across sectors of the
aviation communities are to occur, the various participants must "speak
the same language." Performance and accuracy standards for equipment and
weather information need to be established. Common user databases need
to be established. Integrated system architectures that dovetail with
other, related systems must be developed. Aviation agencies need to take
the lead in establishing these standards based on an in-depth
understanding of requirements and capabilities in all sectors of
aviation. This effort must not, however, preclude development of
specialized systems to deal with unique needs.

***Resource Leveraging:*** The implementation of this Strategic Plan
strategy must take advantage of institutional leverage across agencies
in order to make the most efficient use of equipment, personnel, and
research/development capital. Single-application approaches must not be
pursued

unless absolutely unavoidable. Each agency must draw on its own
strengths, while tapping into those of other agencies to attain the Plan
goals in the most direct, efficient, and cost-conserving manner. The
National Aviation Weather System must maintain an environment that
emphasizes the free flow of data, information, and research among the
organizations involved, public and private. Areas that will benefit from
information exchange need to be identified across all agencies. An
oversight panel is needed to ensure joint development of programs and to
initiate cooperative programs.

***Systems Acquisition:*** The network of cooperative agreements, shared
requirements, and agreed-upon standards outlined in this Strategic Plan
leads naturally to a system acquisition process that takes into account
both common and unique objectives. Specifications must be jointly
developed; multi-agency needs and interests must be served; development
and acquisition capital must be leveraged to better meet user
requirements at lower cost. Alternative (user-based) funding sources
must be actively encouraged.

***Training and Education Programs:*** The people involved in aviation
weather need to receive training which helps them function effectively
without requiring expert-level understanding. Those who generate
products do not need to know how to fly an airplane but do need to know
what weather-related information a pilot needs to fly safely. Pilots do
not need a detailed understanding of meteorology, but must know what
weather products tell them about mission and flight operations. A
well-crafted, effective education and training program is the key to
achieving this Strategic Plan's goals, since the responsibility for
safety ultimately hinges on the performance of individuals. As the
understanding of requirements and standards evolves, the development of
training and education plans for both providers and users must be
refined and targeted. Programs directed toward general aviation users
must be developed, as must programs specifically geared to controllers
and dispatchers. A portable and realistic weather training simulation
system should be developed. Cooperation among agencies is especially
important because no one agency has responsibility for aviation weather
training. Indeed, none of the agencies involved really has general
aviation training as part of its charter, and yet the need must be met
if the goal of increased aviation safety is to be attained.

***Safety Programs**:* Weather safety programs aimed at all strata of
the aviation community must also be developed and geared to the users'
specific requirements. The users of aviation weather information --
pilots, dispatchers, controllers, operations personnel, designers,
mission planners -- not only need to be able to understand the products
but must be able to assess the impact of that information on safe
performance of their duties. Strong, comprehensive aviation weather
safety components must be built into safety programs aimed at all
sectors of aviation. Aviation agencies must develop liaison with
aircraft certification offices to ensure that weather information is
considered in every step of the certification process. Weather training
must be fully integrated into the FAA pilot training and certification
requirements. Training programs in the Department of Defense must
emphasize weather-related training as well.

***Contingency/Special Operations:*** Not all aircraft operations are
"routine." Special circumstances such as research related operations,
forest fire fighting, large air shows, and major military operations,
may have higher-than-normal weather-related risks associated with them.
These risks may be restricted to the personnel involved in the
operations, but may have an impact on the wider community. The
implementation of this Strategic Plan must build in the flexibility to
bring resources to bear in order to deal with non-routine aviation
operations without excessive impact to routine operations. Each agency's
requirements and responsibilities need to be clearly defined and
coordinated. Mobile observing equipment should be developed to provide
at-the-scene observations and analysis tools. DoD and non-DoD equipment
should be interoperable to the greatest extent possible.

***Directing and Utilizing Research***
![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in" height="0.0in"}

Research is a key factor in the successful implementation of the
National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan. Advances in knowledge
and technology are vital to greater understanding of both the impact of
weather conditions on flight safety and the methods for identifying
hazardous conditions and either avoiding or alleviating them.

Many Federal agencies fund basic and applied research in disciplines
related to aviation weather. Not all of that research has immediate,
direct bearing on flight safety or efficiency. The agencies involved in
the National Aviation Weather System must actively work to identify
areas of study that will lead to enhancements in weather-related safety.
Some current examples of on-going research can serve to highlight the
types of studies that should prove fruitful.

The FAA currently supports research efforts into the measurement and
forecasting of specific aviation impact variables, including:

• in-flight icing

• airborne relative humidity sensors

• turbulence (other than convective)

• convective weather

• ceiling and visibility

• wind shear.

The NWS is actively involved in aviation weather research in project
areas such as turbulence, icing, and volcanic ash.

In addition, the USAF, FAA, and NWS support research that will improve
observations, data bases, products, and dissemination techniques.
Examples are:

• WSR-88D (NEXRAD) algorithm enhancements

• weather support for ground de-icing decision making

• weather data links directly to aircraft

• user accessible and manipulable 4-D weather databases

• high resolution graphics products

• high-resolution short-term aviation terminal and en route forecasts.

NASA's research programs focus on operational areas which will have
aviation-weather implications. Specific areas of study include:

• development of cockpit displays to integrate national radar summaries,
lightning strikes, surface observations, and terminal area forecasts

• expansion of these displays with additional information concerning
turbulence and icing

• introducing a hazard avoidance system into cockpit displays along with
enhanced strategic flight planning tools

• developing systems to provide real-time aircraft wake vortex data to
Center Traffic Controllers

• developing improved "ice resistant" aircraft design techniques through
analytical tool development and icing wind tunnel tests

• developing ice detection systems, icing avoidance cockpit displays,
and ice protection and avoidance techniques for General Aviation
aircraft

• space-based measurement of atmospheric parameters, such as temperature
and moisture, that gradually improves the accuracy of atmospheric
modeling and the ability to accurately predict weather.

All of the agencies involved in aviation weather engage in collaborative
research with universities and with laboratories such as the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Cooperative Program for
Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET). Additional
efforts need to be made in the retrieval and archiving of historical
weather data, especially in areas with minimal observatinal
coverage.Often, the forecaster must rely on historical trends in

those areas to make intelligent predictions of future conditions.

While this list is by no means exhaustive, it does serve to indicate
areas of high-potential research. The National Aviation Weather System
must first identify aviation weather-specific research programs that
show promise of direct impact on the goal of significantly improved
weather-related flight safety and then take steps to ensure that
research into these areas is given a high priority for funding. Strong
emphasis must be placed on the movement of capabilities out of basic
research and into applications.

***Reiteration***

The effort to keep aircraft flying safely and efficiently within the
U.S. National Air Space requires the complex interplay of an incredible
number of systems. Weather is just one of the factors that must be dealt
with, but it is an unrelenting factor. Day after day the weather is
present, continually changing and challenging. The fact that yesterday
was all clear skies and gentle winds does not mean that today won't be
storms and turbulence.

In order to ensure that the conduct of aviation in the U.S. remains safe
and efficient, the nation must continue to invest resources and

effort in the existing and evolving infrastructure that is the National
Aviation Weather System. The individuals and organizations engaged in
the business of flying must have access to the most accurate, timely,
and reliable weather information available. They must be fully aware of
the importance of this information and understand how to use it in their
operations. This can only happen if the agencies involved in aviation
continually work in concert to maintain and improve their coordinated
efforts, checking to make sure that they are meeting the needs of their
aviation users, learning from mistakes, capitalizing on successes,
encouraging new technologies, anticipating new trends.

Pilots must remain constantly vigilant for changes in the weather in
order to both take advantage of it and avoid its perils; so also must
the nation remain vigilant if aviation is to remain a reliable and safe
element of our daily life. Today's highly successful Aviation Weather
System can only continue to be successful if it evolves to meet growing
needs with better understanding of the operating environment and how to
manage traffic flow within it.![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in"
height="0.0in"}

***4. AGENCY ROLES AND MISSIONS***

***Federal Aviation Administration***. The FAA is the U.S. government
agency charged with overall responsibility for the safe conduct of
aviation in U.S. airspace. FAA is responsible for changing Federal
Aviation Regulations as necessary, setting requirements and standards
and executing procedures for aviation weather products and services,
training pilots and providers, and certifying aircraft operators. FAA
also engages in aviation weather-specific research, development, and
acquisition activities. FAA also maintains the ATC system, with its
broad network for communication between controllers and pilots.

***National Weather Service.*** In support of the FAA's mission to
ensure a safe and efficient National Air Space System, the NWS provides
warnings, forecasts, and meteorological advice and consultation through
all phases of flight. The NWS views this support as part of its overall
mission to protect lives and property. It achieves this mission by using
up-to-date technology and highly-trained personnel to enable data
collection and timely, accurate forecasts of severe weather events.

***Department of Defense.*** The U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy provide
aviation weather services to military pilots, air traffic controllers,
and operational commanders. USAF provides support to the U.S. Army,
while the U.S. Navy provides similar support to the U.S. Marine Corps.
Interservice coordination is accomplished through the Navy/Air Force
Cooperative Structure (NAVAF COOP). DoD aviation weather services
generally mirror those of the NWS and FAA; however, the unique worldwide
military mission of DoD results in a distinct aviation weather program,
which includes the additional objective of optimizing the performance of
military aircraft, their weapons, and their sensor systems. DoD and NWS
share meteorological data and maintain complementary modeling, satellite
data processing, and data distribution systems as security requirements
permit. DoD and NWS increasingly cooperate in the planning, engineering
development, and fielding of high-value aviation weather support
equipment. The DoD collects weather reports worldwide and combines these
with data available from military (Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program) and civilian meteorological satellites. Although DoD aviation
weather research and development tends to target specific military
requirements, many developmental programs clearly have application to
NWS and FAA; cooperative efforts have been institutionalized to maximize
the leverage of joint efforts.

***National Transportation Safety Board***. The NTSB is an independent
Federal investigative agency whose mission is to determine the "probable
cause" of transportation accidents in all civil aviation incidents, as
well as in major incidents in other modes of transportation. NTSB is
responsible for investigating, making safety recommendations, and
reporting the facts and circumstances of all U.S. civil aviation and
certain public-use aircraft accidents. NTSB also conducts special
studies and investigations on aviation safety problems, such as aircraft
icing avoidance, Flight Service Stations weather briefings, and visual
flight rules into Instrument Meteorological Conditions
(IMC).![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in" height="0.0in"}

***U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service***. The Forest Service
is a major consumer of specialized and standard weather products in its
role as the national leader in wildfire suppression and in response to
other natural disasters as required. Forest Service does not perform
aviation weather research *per se*, but does conduct studies into
related areas; these include air quality, wildfire prediction, smoke and
smoke plume prediction, fire weather research, fire danger rating
systems, and fire behavior.

***Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and
Supporting Research***. OFCM's mission is to promote coordination and
cooperation among Federal agencies having weather-related activities so
that the most effective and best possible weather information and user
services are provided for the funds made available by the U.S.
government. OFCM objectively assesses the adequacy of the total Federal
meteorology program, as well as reviews current and proposed programs to
identify opportunities for improved efficiency, reliability, and cost
avoidance through coordinated actions and integrated programs. OFCM also
documents agency programs and activities in a series of national plans,
standards, and handbooks. OFCM provides analyses, summaries, and
evaluations that provide a factual basis for the executive and
legislative branches to make appropriate decisions related to the
allocation of funds.

***National Aeronautics and Space Administration***. NASA's mission is
to pursue, jointly with industry, those difficult-to-achieve, high
technical risk projects which industry cannot pursue alone because of a
lack of facilities, technical expertise, and research capital. This
research benefits large segments of U.S. industry and significantly
advances the state of the art.

NASA's contribution to real-time weather-related aircraft research is to
develop aircraft system and subsystem prototypes and demonstrate them in
an appropriate environment. Translation of the prototype into a
production model is left to industry.

NASA's contribution to long-term weather-related aircraft research is to
use satellites or aircraft as platforms to measure various atmospheric
parameters such as water vapor, temperature, rainfall, and nitrous
oxide. This data is used in developing long-term atmospheric models and
in determining the effect of subsonic and supersonic aircraft emissions
on the atmosphere. Improvements in atmospheric modeling gradually leads
to better weather prediction ability.

***5. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLAN***

Thus far, this Strategic Plan has described areas in which concentration
of energy and effort is needed to make the use of aviation weather
information more efficient and effective in supporting the safe
operation of all facets of the nation's aviation system. However, this
Strategic Plan could become just a "bookcase document" that is read, and
even agreed with in principle, but then is filed in a bookcase, without
substantive action to implement it, until it is replaced by the next
such effort. To avoid this fate, the Strategic Plan must tackle the hard
questions: "How do we achieve the vision presented? What does the nation
need to do to make the National Aviation Weather System what it needs to
be?"

The underlying difficulty in implementing this Strategic Plan is that no
single Federal agency has a mandate, including the expertise, the
leverage, and the resources, to make the improved National Aviation
Weather System a reality. Yet it is clear that agency leadership is
vital. It is also clear from Section 4, "Agency Roles and Missions",
that each agency involved has some of the necessary ingredients for
implementation. The National Research Council recognized this situation
in its 1995 report, ***Aviation Weather Services: A Call for Federal
Leadership and Action*** (p. 55), by saying: "\...Vigorous leadership
within the federal government is necessary to ensure that aviation
weather services support this goal \[aviation safety and efficiency\] by
meeting user needs. Because aviation safety and efficiency are primarily
the responsibility of the FAA, the FAA should provide this
leadership\..." and then indicating the need for other Federal agencies
to cooperate enthusiastically.

The common thread running through the entire discussion to this point
provides the keys to the answer: cooperation and coordination. Multiple
agencies are involved in the various facets of the National Aviation
Weather System; that means multiple skill sets, multiple budgets, and
multiple viewpoints as to what is important. In order to turn this
multiplicity from a hindrance to an asset, cooperation must be the
watchword.

What is needed to move this Strategic Plan from a paper exercise to an
efficient, effective reality is **an interagency implementation process,
focussed on the key elements put forth in the Strategic Plan, geared to
maintaining and strengthening the current aviation weather
infrastructure, identifying both the shortfalls and the opportunities
for improvements, establishing priorities for necessary actions to
address them, and laying out the coordination required to achieve those
actions**.

The interagency strategies may simply require establishing Memoranda of
Understanding to achieve levels of communication and cross-training;
they may necessitate a complex joint funding and budgeting plan to
acquire and install critical equipment; they may fall somewhere in
between. In all likelihood, no one interagency strategy will apply in
every case. The basic questions that will identify these joint
strategies will include: What problems should be taken on first? What
areas should only one agency tackle? What areas are shared by several
agencies? What agency is the leader in each area? What strengths can
each agency bring to bear to achieve the
goal?![](media/image5.emf){width="0.0in" height="0.0in"}

It is not within the scope of this Strategic Plan, which is meant to be
a high-level document, to dictate specific priorities and strategies for
each of the strategic areas. However, it makes sense at this juncture to
indicate what are, by consensus of the Joint Action Group, high-priority
areas for action under each of the four tasks outlined in Chapter 3. The
tasks will be addressed in a slightly different order than discussed
previously.

***Forging Institutional Arrangements***

The basic step necessary for building the interagency coordination
needed to attain the goals of the Strategic Plan is to develop a
coordinated process for establishing requirements.

The requirements process must include a "zero-based" analysis of
existing aviation weather products, services, and systems. The utility
of every facet of the existing practice must be justified, not with an
eye to budget reduction but to determine which existing products and
services are needed, what users they are intended to serve, what users
they actually serve, and how they are used. The key issue is whether the
National Aviation Weather System as it currently exists in disparate
pieces is a solid foundation for future growth, or whether it needs some
"tweaking" to ensure future success as the System grows.

The mechanics of requirements setting are well-established; each agency
has a set of procedures.

> • The problem needs to be defined: Who has the problem? What do they
> need? When? Where? Are performance measures available?

• Roles and priorities need to be assigned:

> What is the priority? What alternatives exist? Is this a government or
> an industry problem? If government, which agency(ies) can best solve
> it?

• An investment analysis needs to be done:

> Can the problem be quantified? What are the criteria for deciding
> whose problem it is? What are the criteria for deciding on lead
> agency(ies)? What are the performance measures?

Out of the analysis should come the solution, which then has to be
managed as well as monitored for effectiveness and possible
re-evaluation.

However, this process must be broader than a single agency. It must
focus on common requirements. It must be a process that all parties --
users, providers, Federal, state, local, commercial, private -- can
understand and influence. The process must be seen to move forward, and
not stall after an initial information-gathering period. The entire
process must be open, as inclusive as possible, clearly understood and
articulated, and obviously leading to tangible actions that will improve
aviation efficiency and increase weather-related aviation safety.

***Providing Improved Weather Information***

A clear and acknowledged current need is for improved three-dimensional
depictions and forecasts of hazardous weather conditions, both en route
and within the terminal area. In this context, the latter could be
defined in terms of the geographical area within which weather-related
accidents are likely to occur during landings and takeoffs. Improved
ability to identify and/or forecast the location and rate or severity of
areas of icing, freezing precipitation, windshear, convective activity,
non-convective turbulence, low visibility, and volcanic ash is
critically important. The development and deployment of NEXRAD (WSR-88D)
Doppler radar systems is an example of action taken to meet part of this
need. It is also a fine example of the type of joint implementation and
leveraging strategy that may be required to achieve some goals.

***Making Better Use of Weather Information***

In this area the clear consensus is that a strong emphasis on
weather-related training at all levels is critical to achieving the
goals of the Strategic Plan. Training targeted for General Aviation
pilots is the highest priority, especially if the training can be
portable, inexpensive, and tailored to pilot actions (i.e., what is the
weather hazard, how do I recognize it, and what do I do about it?)
Spinoffs of such techniques to commercial and military aviation should
be pursued as well. Elevated standards for initial and recurrent
weather-hazard training are clearly necessary, as are more stringent
training requirements. Weather-related information needs to be more
fully integrated into procedures for pilots, dispatchers, and air
traffic controllers.

***Directing and using research related to aviation weather***

Emphasis in research needs to be placed on the *implementation* of new
technologies, as well as in the *development* of these innovations. It
is clear that hazards such as icing and turbulence, for which timely,
accurate, and relevant forecasts are needed, are priority topics for
research. The areas of modeling (large scale, mesoscale, and even highly
location-specific) and graphics development are also key to supporting
the goal of this Strategic Plan. While basic research should be
encouraged, research which leads clearly to significant improvements in
the National Aviation Weather System should be the focus.

***Acknowledgments***

A number of the weather-related images on the covers of this document
are © University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The images from
NTSB were provided by Mr. James Skeen. OFCM gratefully acknowledges the
permission to use these images. Any unacknowledged use of copyrighted
material is inadvertent and acknowledgment will be provided in later
editions of this document if the owners notify OFCM.