**Committee for the Expert Review of Synthesis and Assessment Product
4.3:**

**"The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources,**

**Water Resources, and Biodiversity"**

**U.S. Department of Agriculture**

**Whitten Building Room 108**

**Washington, D.C.**

**February 5-6, 2008**

The Committee for the Expert Review of Synthesis and Assessment Product
4.3, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water
Resources, and Biodiversity, convened at 9:00 A.M. on February 5, 2008
in room 108 of the USDA Whitten Building in Washington, D.C. In
accordance with the provisions of Public Law 92-463, the meeting was
open to the public.

CERSAP Members Present:

-   Thomas Lovejoy (CERSAP Chair) - The H. John Heinz III Center for
    Science, Economics, and the Environment

-   J. Roy Black - Michigan State University

-   David Breshears - University of Arizona

-   Brian Helmuth - University of South Carolina

-   Frank Mitloehner - University of California, Davis

-   Harold Mooney, Stanford University

-   Dennis Ojima -- Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the
    Environment

-   William Sommers - George Mason University

-   Carol Wessman (via telephone) - University of Colorado

Global Change Program Office staff present:

+----------------------+-----------------------------------------------+
| -   Margaret Walsh   | -   William Hohenstein                        |
+----------------------+-----------------------------------------------+

Authors present:

+------------------------------+---------------------------------------+
| -   Peter Backlund           | -   Dennis Lettenmaier (via           |
|                              |     telephone)                        |
+------------------------------+---------------------------------------+
| -   Jerry Hatfield (via      | -   Mike Ryan                         |
|     telephone)               |                                       |
|                              | -   David Schimel (via telephone)     |
| -   Tony Janetos             |                                       |
+------------------------------+---------------------------------------+
|                              |                                       |
+------------------------------+---------------------------------------+

**Tuesday February 5, 2008**

Following announcements and introductions, the schedule for Synthesis
and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3), *The Effect of Climate Change on
Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity* was
reviewed. Since the Committee for the Expert Review of Synthesis and
Assessment Product 4.3 (CERSAP) last met in June 2007, SAP 4.3 has been
revised according to comments made by the CERSAP. Additionally, it has
undergone public comment and interagency technical review, and has been
revised in response to more than one thousand comments received during
those phases of report development.

Each of the chapters was introduced, followed by CERSAP discussion on
chapter contents and possible improvements.

  ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------
  **Chapter**                           **Speaker**

  Executive Summary & Abstract          Peter Backlund

  Introduction                          Tony Janetos

  Agriculture                           Jerry Hatfield

  Land Resources                        Mike Ryan

  Water Resources                       Dennis Lettenmaier

  Biodiversity                          Tony Janetos

  Synthesis                             Peter Backlund
  ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------

Discussion topics included revising certain language of the overarching
findings to clarify intended meaning, the necessity of noting
specifically that adaptation had been excluded from the scope of the
report and was not discussed, the listing of multiple or additional
stressors in some systems, possible restructuring of some sections for
readability, and the addition of specific citations not already included
in the draft.

The committee noted that the report was generally well done and that its
findings were well founded. A list of potential improvements was started
for continuation on Day 2, including decisions on what the committee
would like to recommend regarding reorganization of the land resources
chapter; whether changes were needed to clarify differences between
climate, weather, and variability; and whether section 3.5.4 in the land
resources chapter was within the report's scope.

**Wednesday, February 6, 2008**

The committee revisited three issues left unresolved from the previous
day.

1.  The committee agreed that reorganization of the land resources
    chapter to separate the discussions of forests and arid lands, with
    a common introduction and findings section, would be their
    suggestion to the authors.

2.  Upon review, the committee decided that more clarification
    distinguishing weather, climate, and variability in the report would
    be desirable.

3.  The committee concluded that, with changes including the deletion of
    the final sentence and some rewording, section 3.5.4 on carbon
    sequestration was within the scope of the report and useful to
    include.

The committee then reviewed the list of comments for consideration by
the authors for revising SAP 4.3. Many of the comments were editorial or
easy changes. Other suggestions included a more explicit framing of the
features that distinguish SAP 4.3 from other climate impact reports,
structural changes to the Land Resources chapter, and organizational
issues related to content in the Biodiversity chapter. The list of
requested changes was given to the report's authors to address.

The committee reviewed the seven questions posed in its charter
regarding the quality of SAP 4.3, and decided that the report met the
standards set for it under most categories. Those categories requiring a
second examination based on a redrafted document included adding more
specific information about the intended audience, more explicit mention
of the inability of the report's authors to address adaptation due to
the definition of scope, more information in the Executive Summary to
make it more complete with regard to the rest of the document, and an
overall recommendation regarding the report's disposition.

CERSAP agreed to draft a recommendation on the disposition of SAP 4.3
upon seeing the final version. The committee expected that they would be
likely to recommend that the report be forwarded into the interagency
clearance process and adopted as a technically credible and well
supported examination of the current scientific understanding of climate
change effects on the natural resources and ecosystem services
documented in SAP 4.3.

The committee adjourned at 12:00 p.m.