Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/8/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** BG4005

BG4005

**Bangladesh**

**Grain and Feed**

**October Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Chad R. Russell

U.S. Embassy, New Delhi

**Prepared by:**

Sayed Sarwer Hussain

**Report Highlights:**

The 2004/05 rice production forecast is revised down to 25.4 million
tons due to potential losses from heavy rains and floods. The wheat
production forecast is revised to 1.35 million tons due to a shift in
acreage from wheat to other competing crops like potatoes.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

New Delhi \[IN1\]

\[BG\]

# RICE

MY 2004/05 rice production forecast is revised down to 25.4 million tons
from 11.0 million hectares from Post's earlier forecast of 26.5 million
tons -- the latter made under normal weather assumptions. The 2003/04
production is revised to 26.2 million tons to reflect the official
estimate.

The country experienced heavy rains and floods during end-July to
mid-August, and again in mid-September, which hampered timely planting
of the rain dependent *Aman* rice crop (harvested in fall and early
winter). Farmers tried to offset the crop losses by planting late season
low yielding varieties, but with only limited success. Furthermore, the
early season *Aus* rice crop also got damaged due to an early monsoon,
coinciding with harvesting. The irrigated *Boro* (summer harvested) rice
crop is likely to be higher due to increased irrigation availability,
partly offsetting the *Aus* and *Aman* losses. Based on official
production data, the 2003/04 rice production estimate is revised to 26.2
million tons. Area and production estimates and forecast by season are
given below:

+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
| **Rice  | 20    |          | 20    |          | 200  |          |
| Crop**  | 02/03 |          | 03/04 |          | 4/05 |          |
|         | (     |          | (     |          | (F   |          |
|         | Estim |          | Estim |          | orec |          |
|         | ates) |          | ates) |          | ast) |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
|         | Area  | Pr       | Area  | Pr       | Area | Pr       |
|         |       | oduction |       | oduction |      | oduction |
|         | (tha) | (tmt)    | (tha) | (tmt)    | (    | (tmt)    |
|         |       |          |       |          | tha) |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
| Aus     | 1,245 | 1,850    | 1,147 | 1,832    | 1    | 1,400    |
|         |       |          |       |          | ,100 |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
| Aman    | 5,685 | 11,115   | 5,710 | 11,520   | 5    | 11,000   |
|         |       |          |       |          | ,800 |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
| Boro    | 3,847 | 12,222   | 4,045 | 12,800   | 4    | 13,000   |
|         |       |          |       |          | ,100 |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+
| # Tot   | 1     | 25,187   | 1     | 26,152   | 11   | 25,400   |
| al Rice | 0,777 |          | 0,902 |          | ,000 |          |
+---------+-------+----------+-------+----------+------+----------+

MY 2004/05 rice imports are forecast to increase to 1 million tons,
reflecting lower production. Data for earlier years reflect official
estimates or data compiled by the World Food Program of the United
Nations.

# WHEAT

Wheat production forecast for MY 2004/05 is lowered to 1.35 million
metric tons from 560,000 hectares. Factors responsible for the downward
revision include competition from vegetable crops, particularly potatoes
due to their higher prices vis-à-vis wheat, and planting problems caused
by too much water. The 2003/04 wheat production estimate is also revised
to 1.33 million metric tons from 567,000 hectares. MY 2004/05 imports
are revised upward to 1.8 million tons. Revised trade data for earlier
years reflect official estimates or data compiled by the World Food
Program of the United Nations.

# Table 1: Commodity, Rice Milled, PSD

+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **PSD Table**    |        |     |     |     |     |     |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **Country:**     | #####  |     |     |     |     |     |           |
|                  | # Bang |     |     |     |     |     |           |
|                  | ladesh |     |     |     |     |     |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **Commodity:**   | *      |     |     |     |     |     |           |
|                  | *Rice, |     |     |     |     |     |           |
|                  | Mi     |     |     |     |     |     |           |
|                  | lled** |     |     |     |     |     |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
|                  |        | **  |     | **  |     | **  | UOM       |
|                  |        | 200 |     | 200 |     | 200 |           |
|                  |        | 2** |     | 3** |     | 4** |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
|                  | Old    | New | Old | New | Old | New |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **Market Year    |        | *   |     | *   |     | *   | (MO       |
| Begin**          |        | *Ju |     | *Ju |     | *Ju | NTH/YEAR) |
|                  |        | l-0 |     | l-0 |     | l-0 |           |
|                  |        | 2** |     | 3** |     | 4** |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Area Harvested   | 10,777 | 10, | 10, | 10, | 10, | 11, | (1000     |
|                  |        | 777 | 900 | 902 | 700 | 000 | Hectares) |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Beginning Stocks | 400    | 400 | 442 | 739 | 742 | 792 | (1000 MT) |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Milled           | 25,187 | 25, | 26, | 26, | 25, | 25, | (1000 MT) |
| Production       |        | 187 | 000 | 152 | 500 | 400 |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Rough Production | 37,784 | 37, | 39, | 39, | 38, | 38, | (1000 MT) |
|                  |        | 784 | 004 | 232 | 254 | 104 |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Milling          | 6,666  | 6,  | 6,  | 6,  | 6,  | 6,  | (1000 MT) |
| Rate(.9999)      |        | 666 | 666 | 666 | 666 | 666 |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| TOTAL Imports    | 955    | 1,  | 700 | 801 | 800 | 1,  | (1000 MT) |
|                  |        | 552 |     |     |     | 000 |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Jan-Dec Imports  | 1,112  | 1,  | 600 | 700 | 600 | 800 | (1000 MT) |
|                  |        | 639 |     |     |     |     |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Jan-Dec Import   | 0      | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | (1000 MT) |
| U.S.             |        |     |     |     |     |     |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY** | **26   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | (1000 MT) |
|                  | ,542** | *27 | *27 | *27 | *27 | *27 |           |
|                  |        | ,13 | ,14 | ,69 | ,04 | ,19 |           |
|                  |        | 9** | 2** | 2** | 2** | 2** |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| TOTAL Exports    | 0      | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | (1000 MT) |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Jan-Dec Exports  | 0      | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | 0   | (1000 MT) |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 26,100 | 26, | 26, | 26, | 26, | 26, | (1000 MT) |
| Consumption      |        | 400 | 400 | 900 | 700 | 800 |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| Ending Stocks    | 442    | 739 | 742 | 792 | 342 | 392 | (1000 MT) |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+
| **TOTAL          | **26   | *   | *   | *   | *   | *   | (1000 MT) |
| DISTRIBUTION**   | ,542** | *27 | *27 | *27 | *27 | *27 |           |
|                  |        | ,13 | ,14 | ,69 | ,04 | ,19 |           |
|                  |        | 9** | 2** | 2** | 2** | 2** |           |
+------------------+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----------+

# Table 2: Commodity, Wheat, PSD

  ------------------- ---------------- ------------ -------- ------------ ------- ------------ --------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                                

  **Country:**        **Bangladesh**                                                           

  **Commodity:**      **Wheat**                                                                

                                       **2002**              **2003**             **2004**     UOM

                      Old              New          Old      New          Old     New          

  **Market Year                        **Jul-02**            **Jul-03**           **Jul-04**   (MONTH/YEAR)
  Begin**                                                                                      

  Area Harvested      707              707          700      567          700     560          (1000
                                                                                               Hectares)

  Beginning Stocks    600              600          310      310          310     372          (1000 MT)

  Production          1510             1510         1500     1330         1500    1350         (1000 MT)

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      1335             1664         1500     1998         1600    1800         (1000 MT)
  Imports                                                                                      

  Jul-Jun Imports     1335             1664         1500     1998         1600    1800         (1000 MT)

  Jul-Jun Import U.S. **72**           **55**       **91**   **106**      **0**   **100**      (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**    3445             **3774**     3310     **3638**     3410    **3522**     (1000 MT)

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      0                0            0        0            0       0            (1000 MT)
  Exports                                                                                      

  Jul-Jun Exports     0                0            0        0            0       0            (1000 MT)

  Feed Dom.           0                0            0        0            0       0            (1000 MT)
  Consumption                                                                                  

  TOTAL Dom.          3135             3464         3000     3266         3100    3300         (1000 MT)
  Consumption                                                                                  

  Ending Stocks       310              310          310      372          310     222          (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL             3445             **3774**     3310     **3638**     3410    **3522**     (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                               
  ------------------- ---------------- ------------ -------- ------------ ------- ------------ --------------