**Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts,**

**September 19-20, 2007 in St. Louis**

**Participant Comments**

**(Prepared October 1, 2007)**

**1. In what ways was the workshop useful to you?**

-   \(36\) Insight on current FTA thinking, current/future guidelines,
    recommendations, and expectations

-   \(16\) Specific sessions noted:

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-   \(4\) Session 15 on telling a good story

-   \(3\) Session 10 on uncertainty analysis

-   \(2\) Session 4 on data collection

-   \(2\) Session 5 on calibration/validation

-   Session 6 on standard report/QC

-   Session 11 on Before-After studies

-   Session 12 on performance tracking

-   Session 13 on path/mode choices

-   Sessions on travel models

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-   \(10\) Latest thinking on good practice

-   \(8\) Participation by other agencies/fellow practitioners

-   \(2\) Examples and case studies

-   \(2\) Meeting people/networking

-   Discovering the existing capabilities that are [claimed]{.underline}
    by participants

-   Great meeting place for professionals, especially forecasting
    technicians, to share experiences across different types of agencies

-   Will help me coach others on the forecasting process

-   Willingness of FTA to listen and be open to the idea of a \"best
    practices\" approach rather than mandated \"requirements\"

**2. How could we have made it better?**

-   \(16\) Session format:

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-   \(4\) More time for audience participation

-   \(3\) More networking opportunities

-   \(2\) More technical detail

-   Bit of information overload, break it up a little more

-   Fewer presentations within the sessions

-   Make materials available before workshop to help us prepare in
    advance

-   Introductory session about the bigger picture of New Starts

-   Slow down on the presentations

-   Some presentations needed more time

-   Smaller roundtable discussion on issues as a problem solving
    exercise

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-   \(10\) Session topics:

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-   Describe Summit and AARF in more technical detail

-   Different QA tests modelers can do (or must do) in various steps of
    the modeling process

-   For \"range of forecast\"\--formally put in a FTA generic ridership
    model based on national data (FTA transit data base) so that
    forecasted ridership can be compared to \"FTA model\" ridership

-   More ideas on using existing data

-   More time for calibration/validation presentations

-   Need good examples of transit rider surveys

-   Need to know in more detail what project sponsors/managers are being
    told

-   Propose specific approaches to regulations

-   Recommendations for validation/calibration need reference examples
    and follow up

-   Short sessions on (a) pre-AA\--what should we evaluate, will FTA be
    available to meet and assist; (b) mode choice cost components: what
    does FTA expect (parking, driving...), what is standard practice to
    determine these

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-   \(9\) More on case studies:

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-   \(3\) More beginning to end case studies

-   \(3\) More case studies and real-world examples

-   \(3\) More on what our peers are doing and "lessons learned"

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-   \(5\) Name tags

-   Attendees appear to include lots of consultants who
    [may]{.underline} bid for New Starts projects, rather than those
    that [do]{.underline}

-   Better documentation on what has been presented in the workshop

**3. Should we have similar workshops in the future? If so, how
frequently?**

-   \(57\) Yes

-   \(33\) Every year

-   \(8\) Every 1-2 years with conditions:

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-   \(6\) depending on number of policy or requirement changes

-   As the guidance stabilizes, package this as a \"training\" on how to
    turn models into good decisions based on good data

-   Please consider one in the west

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-   \(7\) Frequency other than 1-2 years:

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-   \(3\) As warranted with changes in FTA procedures or \"evolution\"
    of the practice

-   Every 4-6 months

-   Every 6 months

-   Every 18 months

-   Every 2-3 years as warranted with NPRM, guidance, etc.

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-   \(5\) Every year with conditions:

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-   If no major FTA changes are proposed, conference could focus more on
    \"state of the practice\"

-   In two or three different places

-   Prefer gathering the entire New Starts community rather than
    splitting it up

-   Provided not a simple rehash of previous year (but some redundancy
    is necessary for new attendees)

-   Unless FTA makes major changes in their requirements

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-   \(3\) Every 2 years\--or if something significant changes

-   \(2\) Make it a three day workshop instead of two days

-   Have a joint forecasting/sponsor meeting to make sure all on same
    page

-   Have some oriented to a lower level of expertise and knowledge? I
    suspect, however, that most will either (1) not bother to invest the
    time or effort to apply; or (2) will hire a consultant, as evidenced
    by the large percent of them in your audience

-   Offer video conference too?

-   Open it up to a larger audience and maybe have another session for
    decision makers/management at MPOs and sponsor agencies

-   Policy makers and sponsors need to know the requirements

-   Small venues would be good: separate projects in process versus
    locations considering New Starts. In other words, maybe smaller
    groups of people who have experience that is similar with regard to
    project submittals.

**4. What [specific]{.underline} things can we do to help you with New
Starts travel forecasting? Some general categories might be research,
guidance, training, case study examples, and technical assistance. But
to help target our efforts, what [specific problems]{.underline} should
we address first and what kinds of activities would you find most
helpful?**

-   \(36\) Outreach, training, documentation, and dissemination of
    information:

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-   \(7\) More education of project sponsors on importance of forecasts.

-   As someone new to field (2.5 years), and as a first time New Starts
    participant, some more entry level presentations may have been
    better tailored to my personal needs.

-   Barriers to quality models are the limited technical talent and
    experience at MPOs. We don\'t have the training programs in-house
    that would enable better model trouble shooting and validation.

-   Before and after will have a lot of requirements that the transit
    agency (sponsor) will not view as priority. Stress to them and
    provide sufficient written guidance they will understand and devote
    resources.

-   Better education that \"bells and whistles\" are not always needed.

-   Consider establishing and funding Expert Performance teams to review
    models to help identify the risks and share/distribute/relieve
    responsibility of ranking risks high/medium/low.

-   Could you please talk about how hard you can push the model and get
    results that still make sense. I have a feeling some of us are
    pushing our models too hard and I simply do not believe the results.
    Modeling is not an exact science\--some folks are not getting
    [it]{.underline} and therefore some discussion on that will be
    useful.

-   Demonstration of Summit programs/software to generate the tables
    that FTA requires for New/Small Starts.

-   Educate sponsoring agencies on need to do and [fund]{.underline} QC
    tests and uncertainty analysis. I mean \"fund\" in terms of schedule
    more than dollars.

-   Educate the staff (MPOs) since we are unfamiliar and yet have to
    oversee the consultant. It would be easier if MPO staff had skills
    or familiarity with the process, requirements, and technical
    details.

-   Fund training for MPO/Agency staff.

-   Have a hands-on training workshop for junior/mid modelers who are
    getting into New Starts modeling on pitfalls and advantages of
    various approaches.

-   Help with the task of communicating the importance of model
    development/enhancement with MPO directors, board members, and
    policy committees.

-   How to communicate to policy makers regarding the requirements, time
    commitment and costs associated with New Starts.

-   Increase number of times and locations for the NTI travel
    forecasting course.

-   Is there a modeler's newsgroup, blog, internet community? This
    communication tool would be useful, especially as FTA would not need
    to respond to every question.

-   It would probably be very useful to develop training and other
    materials about travel forecasts targeted at project managers,
    project sponsors, and public officials to work on developing this
    understanding and expectations of the modeling and user benefits
    technical analysis.

-   Make some in-depth explanation available on FTA website.

-   Make sponsoring agencies keenly aware that \"wide\" ranges may occur
    between low and high forecasts, that being broadly correct is more
    important that being precisely wrong.

-   Mini-peer review of models: NOT duplication of the comprehensive
    TMIP process, but very limited review focusing primarily on transit
    network and mode choice models and procedures. One day, possibly by
    video conference. Focus on [feasible incremental]{.underline}
    improvements!

-   Send out a periodic \"modeling tips\" e-newsletter to the modeling
    community.

-   More information on small starts and very small starts.

-   More time or separate workshop on \"New\" New Starts/Small Starts
    for areas with little or no New Starts experience.

-   Problem warnings will be helpful\--problems FTA found in all the
    studies investigated.

-   Project sponsors that are not so willing to do data collection could
    use some more carrots and/or sticks, although maybe the new
    expiration date for onboard surveys will probably help with this.

-   Promote having travel forecasters do the up front \"things\" and
    tests with the model to the Project Sponsors. These are items that
    are beneficial to the project and better the model\--however so much
    of the time we have to hurry with getting the model calibrated
    because the project has started.

-   Provide better documentation on Summit.

-   Recommend stressing what \"most likely\" outcome actually means and
    emphasize that political pressure is inevitable, but needs to be
    controlled for the exercise.

-   Really appreciate the FTA\'s willingness to work with consultants
    and sponsors on preparing the forecasts. Continue to make yourselves
    available for discussions and informal conversations.

-   Work with project sponsors in regards to need to allocate adequate
    time and budget for travel modeling, especially as FTA starts to
    require the uncertainty analysis.

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-   \(15\) More case studies and examples:

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-   \(2\) Training and case study examples are always good.

-   Case study examples.

-   Developing a \"UTOWN\" example for New Starts would be useful. A
    more technical workshop that goes through \"the numbers\" of a case
    study would be useful. Some case study of a small start or very
    small start would be useful.

-   FTA offered a lot of guidance in checking the models at AA. Some
    examples to specific use of data and model runs will convert ideas
    to actions. If FTA can provide a web site that addresses the issues
    in order of importance, it will be very useful. Even though findings
    change as time passes documentation provides references for future
    training. If FTA can offer and/or require approval of AA plan at the
    start of a New Starts process, it will ensure the path the
    contractor is going to follow.

-   Good transit modeling examples.

-   Group could use \"collective knowledge.\" I also believe in many
    case studies as an indication of \"good examples.\" Not necessarily
    templates but \"here is what has worked somewhere else.\" Bottom
    line is \"show us the best examples of what FTA would like to see\"
    without being prescriptive.

-   Lessons learned for real projects encompassing (a) Project
    development history/challenges; (b) Data
    availability/collection/challenges/pitfalls; (c) Modeling
    challenges/pitfalls; (d) Forecasting analysis\--reasons/causes for
    failure or shortcomings.

-   Lessons learned session: successful submittals/projects and
    unsuccessful so we don\'t make the same mistakes. Success stories
    are the \"guidebooks\" but need range of examples.

-   Making the Case session was excellent! A similar session on the
    \"Baseline Document\" would be good.

-   More examples of successful uncertainty analysis and before & after
    studies when available\--though apparently these will be online.

-   Provide better documentation on Case Studies which meet FTA
    requirements and can serve as examples for studies elsewhere.

-   Providing results and examples from other successful studies.

-   Provision of good examples/case studies for download.

-   Share experiences from other regions. Develop a library of
    before/after studies, surveys.

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-   \(15\) Guidance:

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-   Always helps encourage sponsors to give appropriate time to the
    analysis that is needed.

-   Checklists for inclusion of submission related to uncertainty
    analysis and to quality control checks\--more detail is better.

-   Create a good detailed requirements guide with example projects.

-   Continue to clarify guidance and post on the FTA New Starts web
    site.

-   Develop a step by step procedure for New Starts as suggested in
    presentation. That way the modeling does not go through most of the
    process and be rejected for basic assumptions on demographics or
    other front end work.

-   Document the information sources/important documents; NPRMs,
    guidance, websites. We\'re not all as far along in the New Starts
    area as some consultants.

-   Formal guidance on what to include in the uncertainty analysis.

-   Having all current guidance documents compiled into one
    comprehensive document would be helpful. Support in the form of
    outreach to project sponsors about the QC and documentation that is
    required for \"good planning\" would be very helpful.

-   Manual of all requirements with timelines as a New Starts
    introduction.

-   Need to clarify which forecast is being compared to in \"predicted
    versus actual\" (forecast year \"most likely,\" low, high, opening
    year or open 1-2) versus the forecast that is used for
    cost-effectiveness (presumably the forecast year \"most likely\").
    May want to think about having low, most likely, and high forecasts
    for opening year. Why? Contractors are evaluated (not by FTA) on
    this and there are strong uncertainties even in this short-term
    forecast.

-   On fuel prices; how to deal with irregular headways and
    span-of-service issues, kiss/ride access.

-   Specific guidelines on preferences between new, small, very small
    starts, reporting requirements.

-   Technical assistance (guidance) and brainstorming with FTA is always
    helpful.

-   Very specific as to what FTA wants versus requires. Unless required
    will not get funded as impression is too many dollars spent on
    forecasting\--and it is growing.

-   Would like to see written documentation/guidelines on these new
    regulations.

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-   \(6\) Data Collection:

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-   Appropriate methods for collecting the needed data.

-   Funding for data collection activities.

-   Guidance on data collection, especially surveys such as onboard.
    Before an exhaustive survey is completed, this would help ensure the
    correct information is being collected to validate model results.

-   I\'d like more specific help with data collection, for this is a
    huge limiting factor for our models.

-   On-board survey guidance\--methodology, tools, survey instruments.

-   Post examples of really good on-board survey instruments and
    sampling/implementation strategies.

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-   \(5\) Research:

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-   Better coordination with/TRB Committees\--calls for papers related
    to New Starts forecasting.

-   Behavioral changes in transit riders over time from the surveys in
    specific areas.

-   Define effect of station versus bus stop choice in path building
    (i.e., in order to minimize constant differential between LRT and
    bus).

-   Develop test case data sample. Let different path building methods
    and software packages be tested on it.

-   Understand how people make choices when presented with multiple
    options for transit and how to quantify through a mode choice/path
    building.

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-   \(5\) Future workshops:

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-   Have presentations on path builders in different software platforms.
    Gain understanding into differences.

-   Focus more on the supply side!

-   Insist on MPO attendance. Perhaps an MPO/transit agency only
    presentation so that they are also aware of the requirements.

-   Next year in Florida?

-   Offer Summit class before the workshop.

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-   It is very important that \"highway forecasting\" should be
    \"reliable\" too.

-   It takes a lot of time and effort to develop model. It takes more
    and more to fulfill all the requirements from FTA. I feel that the
    requirements are so much that we have less time to gather
    data/calibrate/validate. And the software limitation in outputting
    some required info in a ready way puts hurdles in the near future
    for us.

**5. What kind of agency do you work for? How many years have you been
doing travel forecasting? How many New Starts projects have you work
on?**

-   \(27\) Consultant (average 17 years experience and 2.7 projects)

-   \(20\) MPO (average 11 years experience and 1.1 projects)

-   \(7\) Transit agency (average 10 years and 2.3 projects)

-   \(4\) FTA, MPO/transit operator, State DOT, and Vendor (average 18
    years and 4.1 projects)