Market Segmentation for the Census 2010 Integrated Communications
Program[^1]

The 2010 Census communications program requires the contractor to
develop a research-based campaign to encourage everyone to participate
in the census. The foundation of this strategy depends upon an audience
segmentation model to efficiently and effectively allocate resources and
target messages to encourage different populations to participate,
either by mailing back their forms or responding to the enumerator. A
first step in building this model is to define the underlying constructs
behind areas deemed as "hard-to-count" (HTC). Since not all areas with
low mail response look the same, it is critical to understand the
dimensions that define places with high HTC scores.

To address this question, an analysis was performed using data from the
Tract-Level Planning Database (PDB)[^2] with Census 2000 data. Table 1
presents a summary from a factor analysis performed on the twelve
variables that make up the HTC scores. The analysis revealed three
distinct factors (sometimes referred to as unobserved variables)
highlighting three different population segments all hard to count by
mail. The three factors were subsequently labeled:

(1) The Economically Disadvantaged,

(2) The Unattached/Mobile Singles, and

(3) High Density Areas with Ethnic Enclaves.

The Economically Disadvantaged factor had high loadings on vacant
housing, poverty, public assistance, unemployment, less than a high
school education, and absence of a phone. This factor has the largest
negative correlation with mail return rates (-.56). The average mail
return rate in tracts scoring high on this factor was 63.5 percent, far
below average of 75.4 percent. Tracts scoring high on this factor also
had a high correlation with percent Black and a moderate correlation
with percent American Indian and Alaskan Native (AIAN). Tracts with high
Economically Disadvantaged scores had an average HTC score of 75 (well
above the national average of 33).

The second factor (Unattached/Mobile Singles) is distinct from the first
with high factor loadings on non-spousal households, renters, multi-unit
structures, and residential mobility within the last year. Tracts
loading high on the Unattached/Mobile Single factor also had below
average mail return rates (66.5%) and a fairly strong negative
correction with mail return rate (-.48). Tracts closely aligned with
this factor did not indicate a strong correlation with any one race or
ethnic group. In summary, this factor tends to reflect mobile, single
adults, many of whom do not have children and may be living on their own
for the first time.

The final factor (High Density Area with Ethnic Enclaves) loaded high on
only three HTC variables: crowded housing, linguistic isolation, and
less than high school education. Tracts with high scores on this factor
had below average mail return rate (67.2%), a high HTC score (75), a
strong correlation with percent Hispanic and some correlation with
percent Asian or Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander (NHOPI). The
underlying construct with this factor appears to be densely populated
ethnic enclaves \-- some with limited English language proficiency.

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Table 1. Factor Analysis of Tract-Level Planning Database with Census
2000 Data (using the 12 HTC score variables)

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[^1]: Analysis is preliminary and for discussion purposes only.

[^2]: The analysis included all tracts containing population and housing
    units in Census 2000 mailout/mailback or list enumerate areas.

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