**CHAPTER VII**

**BUSINESS APPLICATIONS OF**

**PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING**

**CHAPTER VII**

**BUSINESS APPLICATIONS OF PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING**

**[INTRODUCTION]{.underline}**

Recent initiatives affecting government procurement practices have
further stressed an already fragile world‑wide estimating capability.
Competition, accuracy, flexibility, and method‑proven credibility
dictate reformation in the estimating process, especially for new
business pursuits. Parametric estimating methods for planning and
strategizing new business cost issues is a critical element in the
reform of traditional bottoms‑up approaches.

A paper written by Roy Summers and Bruce Fad summarized here discusses
the need for parametric modeling in the new business development
process. The arguments are based on experience gained through use of
parametrics in this type environment. The role of parametric modeling is
examined along with the presentation of a process in which parametrics
and bottoms‑up estimating are complementary. Organizational conditions
leading to effective use of parametrics are also considered. The
questions of job responsibilities, management interface, and functional
structures are treated from the practitioners\' viewpoint. Finally, the
issue of credibility includes perspectives from both the using and
auditing organizations, with emphasis on calibration and the use of
testable databases.

**[PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING IN NEW BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT]{.underline}**

Why do programs die? Why do CEO\'s, Boards of Directors, DoD, or
Congress kill or cancel technically superior projects? There are many
examples, and, generally, it is not due to technical viability. Even
though millions or even billions are lost, the program graveyard claims
many projects. Sommers and Fad suggest that these events happen partly
because of an inattention to future cost issues during program
development. There is a need to recognize and react to help solve the
cost problems. Technical success can often mask future cost issues.

The authors propose that an organization responsible for costing use
parametric techniques early on, and that cost and technical objectives
be treated together. Parametrics are perfect for cost estimating during
a program\'s conceptual phase, and the tools connect technical and cost
parameters together in a very effective way.

New business development actions can attack the problem. These actions
include:

1\) Parallel and coordinated development of technical and programmatic
(cost, schedule and quantity) concepts from requirements.

2\) Iterative and continuous cost improvement

3\) Develop cost targets (bogeys) as the result of 1 & 2, above.

4\) A review/reconciliation process that focuses on cost/risk analysis.

The authors go on to suggest that organizations not put off the cost
estimating activity, and that cost analysts immediately begin to explore
technical/cost alternatives. They also suggest that the parametric
function belong to an independent department and not reside within
another function outside the organization that owns new business
development.

To effectively integrate parametrics into an organization, upper
management needs to be involved. Upper management involvement will
insure the creation of a cooperative team spirit, and more effective
management and customer acceptance including estimate credibility.

**[ESTIMATING PRODUCTION BUYS USING PARAMETRICS]{.underline}**

A parametric approach can be used to calibrate production cost and then
estimate future production buy(s) and options using a commercial model.
The benefit here is a simpler cost proposal with no bill of material and
no labor hours roll‑up. The model can be calibrated and estimates
derived at any level of the WBS, hence useful for spare parts pricing.
In either case, the CERs or cost models can be used as the basis of
estimate, and delivered to a proposal pricing system via a post
processor, or a spread sheet. In either event, the cost estimating
process is greatly simplified, and resource economies of scale can be
realized.

**Example: Estimating Production Buys Using Parametrics**

What follows is an example of the comparative or analogous estimating
approach.

**RFQ And Historical Data**

PDQ Inc., has received an RFQ for 84 XYZ‑L Systems to be built and
delivered in 1995. A 120‑lot of this same system was delivered in 1993,
so recent cost history exists. The cost history yields the following
data:

Manufacturing labor (Hands‑on) of 42,000 hours divided into:

Plant A ‑ 18,000 hours

Plant B ‑ 12,000 hours

Plant C ‑ 12,000 hours

Purchased parts: \$9,000,000

Manufacturing Support Labor: 17,280 hours which was generated from 1
Mechanical Engineer, 1 Quality Engineer, and 1 Test Engineer at each of
the three plant locations.

Engineering Support Labor: 7,680 hours generated by 2 Engineers at Plant
A, and 1 Engineer each at Plants B and C.

Tooling Costs: \$15,000

Test Equipment Costs: \$25,000

**The Interview Process**

How will the proposed 84‑lot be different from the historical (baseline)
120‑lot?

VECP ‑ AB123 has altered the system configuration. Mechanical
Engineering has estimated the VECP will reduce the assembly time at
Plant A by 5 hours per system.

Plant B is over‑capacity so five of the parts in the system will be
resourced to Plant C. These parts are similar in assembly and take 3
hours each to build.

Part number XYZ456, previously assembled at Plant A, is being purchased
from an outside vendor. Assembly time for this part at Plant A was 4
hours. It is currently being purchased for \$200.

**Preparation Of The Estimate**

*Manufacturing Labor Calculations*:

Plant A: 150 Hours Historical Baseline unitized

‑5 Hours Adjustment for VECP‑AB123

[‑4 Hours]{.underline} Make to Buy Change for P/N XYZ456

141 Hours Proposed Unit Hours Estimate for 84‑lot

Plant B: 100 Hours Historical Baseline unitized

[-15 Hours]{.underline}\* Five parts (@ 3 hours per part) resourced to
Plant C

85 Hours Proposed Unit Hours Estimate for 84‑lot

Plant C: 100 Hours Historical Baseline unitized

\+[17.5 Hours]{.underline} Five parts resourced from Plant B

117.5 Hours Proposed Unit Hours Estimate for 84‑lot

\* The 15 hours for the 5 parts were adjusted to account for performance
differences between Plants B and C. Performance factor (inverse of
efficiency) at Plant B was 1.5. The current performance factor at Plant
C is 1.75. Adjustment: 15 hours divided by 1.5 times 1.75 equals 17.5.

*Purchased Parts Calculations:*

\$75,000 Baseline Costs unitized (purchased 50% in 1992 and 50% in 1993)

Material for 84‑lot will be purchased in 1994. Escalation is 3% per
year.

\$39,784 Baseline (50%) escalated from 1992 to 1994

\$38,625 Baseline (50%) escalated from 1993 to 1994

[\$200]{.underline} Make to Buy Change for P/N XYZ456 (not in baseline)

\$78,609 Proposed Unit Base Estimate for 84‑lot

*Manufacturing Support Labor Calculations:*

Support labor has historically followed a semi‑variable pattern; i.e.,
when the production quantity is halved, support can be reduced by 25%,
or when production is doubled, support cost is increased by 50%.

The proposed 84‑lot is 60% of a halving of the baseline 120‑lot.
Therefore, the support labor adjustment is ‑15% (60% X 25% = 15%) .

9.00 People Baseline

7.65 People Baseline Adjusted (‑15%)

14,688 Hours Proposed support labor @ 1920 hours per person/year

*Engineering Support Labor Calculations:*

4 People Baseline

3 People Adjusted Baseline (Management Challenge)

5,760 Hours Proposed engineering labor @ 1920 hours per person/year

*Tooling And Test Equipment Calculations*:

\$40,000 Baseline costs

\$ 1,200 Adjusted for escalation from 1994 to 1995 (3% per year)

\$ 4,120 Adjusted for age of equipment

\$45,320 Proposed tooling and test equipment costs

**Summary Of Direct Costs**

*Manufacturing Labor*:

Plant A 141.0 Hours X 84 Systems X \$75.80 per Hr. = \$ 897,775

Plant B 85.0 Hours X 84 Systems X \$81.50 per Hr. = \$ 581,910

Plant C 117.5 Hours X 84 Systems X \$77.10 per Hr. = [\$
760,977]{.underline}

Subtotal Manufacturing Labor = \$2,240,662

*Purchased Parts*:

Base \$78,609 X 84 Systems = \$6,603,156

Normal Material Production Allowance (NMPA) 5.0% = \$330,158

Raw Material 2.5% = \$165,079

Material Overhead (Applied to Purchase Parts Only) 8.0% =
[\$528,252]{.underline}

Sub‑Total Purchased Parts: = \$7,626,645

Manufacturing Support: 14,688 Hours X \$74.75 per Hr = \$1,097,928

Engineering Support: 5,760 Hours X \$83.00 per Hr. = \$478,080

Tooling & Test Equipment: [= \$45,320]{.underline}

**TOTAL DIRECT COSTS: \$11,488,635**

**[ESTIMATING SPARES AND CHANGE ORDERS]{.underline}**

Parametric techniques can sometimes be used for estimating spares and
change order proposals. Using a calibrated system model for spares,
select the WBS element that represents the spare part(s) that need to be
estimated. Then exercise the model at that point, either a commercial
version or one developed for the specific program. The estimate can be
exercised very quickly, and the calibrated model will yield accurate
results.

Engineering Change Proposals (VECPs) or other change proposals have to
be accounted for by adjusting the actuals or a delta to the current
estimate. The comparative approach is normally well supported by
history, as accurate as any other technique. It is much easier to do
\"what if\" analysis and compute option prices, and the proposals are
less complex and smaller in volume and more \"user friendly\", with
significantly reduced preparation, review, audit and negotiation time.

Table VII-1 indicates the potential parametric applicability for various
firm business proposals. Appendix G contains a parametric estimating
system checklist.

**PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING APPLICATIONS FOR FIRM - BUSINESS PROPOSALS**

+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
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| * |                           | eering** | acturing** | st** | *Supp |
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+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 1 | New Business Development  | VA       | VA         | VA   | VA    |
| \ |                           |          |            |      |       |
| . |                           |          |            |      |       |
+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 2 | Production                | VA       | VA         | VA   | VA    |
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+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 3 | Follow-on Production      | VA       | VA         | VA   | VA    |
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+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 4 | Development Contract      | NVA      | NVA        | NVA  | VA    |
| \ | Change-Order              |          |            |      |       |
| . |                           |          |            |      |       |
+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 5 | Production Contract       | NVA      | NVA        | NVA  | VA    |
| \ | Change-Order              |          |            |      |       |
| . |                           |          |            |      |       |
+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| 6 | Spares                    | MBA      | MBA        | MBA  | VA    |
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| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| t |                           |          |            |      |       |
| h |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| W |                           |          |            |      |       |
| B |                           |          |            |      |       |
| S |                           |          |            |      |       |
| f |                           |          |            |      |       |
| o |                           |          |            |      |       |
| r |                           |          |            |      |       |
| m |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| g |                           |          |            |      |       |
| f |                           |          |            |      |       |
| u |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| u |                           |          |            |      |       |
| t |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| z |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| t |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| o |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| . |                           |          |            |      |       |
+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+
| * |                           |          |            |      |       |
| * |                           |          |            |      |       |
| [ |                           |          |            |      |       |
| K |                           |          |            |      |       |
| E |                           |          |            |      |       |
| Y |                           |          |            |      |       |
| : |                           |          |            |      |       |
| ] |                           |          |            |      |       |
| { |                           |          |            |      |       |
| . |                           |          |            |      |       |
| u |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| d |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| r |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| n |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| } |                           |          |            |      |       |
| * |                           |          |            |      |       |
| * |                           |          |            |      |       |
|   |                           |          |            |      |       |
| V |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| = |                           |          |            |      |       |
| V |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| r |                           |          |            |      |       |
| y |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| c |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| b |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| ; |                           |          |            |      |       |
| N |                           |          |            |      |       |
| V |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| = |                           |          |            |      |       |
| N |                           |          |            |      |       |
| o |                           |          |            |      |       |
| t |                           |          |            |      |       |
| V |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| r |                           |          |            |      |       |
| y |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| c |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| b |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| ; |                           |          |            |      |       |
| M |                           |          |            |      |       |
| B |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| = |                           |          |            |      |       |
| M |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| y |                           |          |            |      |       |
| B |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
| A |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| p |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| i |                           |          |            |      |       |
| c |                           |          |            |      |       |
| a |                           |          |            |      |       |
| b |                           |          |            |      |       |
| l |                           |          |            |      |       |
| e |                           |          |            |      |       |
+---+---------------------------+----------+------------+------+-------+

**TABLE VII - 1**