Number range CHAPTERWES ER 02-1b

WEATHER EVENT SIMULATOR

NOAA National Weather Service

Eastern Region

December 2002

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**WES**

**SIMULATION**

**GUIDE:**

An Example

April 8, 1998

Birmingham, Alabama

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Rosemary Auld

Eastern Region Headquarters

Scientific Services Division

**Acknowledgments**

This template of a Weather Event Simulator (WES) simulation guide
borrows *heavily* from that developed and released in early 2002 by a
host of talented individuals at the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch
(WDTB) in Norman, Oklahoma).

Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

Rosemary Auld

Scientific Services Division

NWS Eastern Region

December 2002

**Table of Contents**

**Initial Information for Trainer**

Acknowledgments\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...
2

Introduction\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
3

Training
Objectives\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
3

Overview of
Event\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...
4

Instructional Details and Simulation
Facts\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\..... 5

**Simulation Tasks**

Pre-Simulation
Tasks\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
6

In-Simulation
Tasks\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
8

Post-Simulation
Tasks\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\.....
9

Trainer Evaluation
Guide\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
10

Storm and Session
Summary\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...
12

References\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\.....
12

**Appendices**

Appendix A - Standard Format of Eastern Region WES Simulation
Guides\...\...\...\... 15

Appendix B - Summary of Simulation Strategies (WDTB
defined)\...\...\.... 17

Appendix C - Tips from the
Trainer/Author\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\....
19

Appendix D - Storm
Reports\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\.....
21

Appendix E - SPC Products\...
\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\.....
23

**INTRODUCTION**

The 8 April1998 Event in Birmingham, AL

This is a simulation guide for the severe weather event that occurred in
the County Warning Area (CWA) of the National Weather Service (NWS)
Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Birmingham, Alabama, on 8 April 1998.
The Weather Event Simulator (WES) [Real Time]{.underline} and [Virtual
Reality]{.underline} simulations were employed for this training.

This guide follows the standard layout for an Eastern Region simulation
guide (Appendix A). A summary of the instructional strategies behind the
five main types of simulation as defined by the WDTB (2002) appears in
Appendix B.

**TRAINING OBJECTIVES**

 Please read Trainer/Author Tips no. **1** in Appendix C.

**OVERVIEW**

8 April 1998 Birmingham, AL

**The Weather**

On the afternoon and early evening of 8 April 1998, a significant severe
weather outbreak occurred over the southeast US. This was a high risk
situation with the potential for widespread severe weather, including
significant torna-does. Despite the tornado outbreak potential, only two
storms out of many in the Birmingham CWA produced tornadoes. One storm
in north-central AL produced a brief, weak tornado, while the other
storm in central AL produced a family of three tornadoes with F3, F5,
and F2 damage, respectively. The F5 tornado was a particularly
devastating event that struck the metropolitan area of Birmingham, AL.
The Birmingham storm caused 34 fatalities, 272 injuries, and \$42
million in property damage, with more than 1000 homes being severely
damaged or destroyed.

 Please read Tips no. **2** in Appendix C.

**Instructional Perspective**

The widespread nature of the severe weather on this day provides for a
wide range of simulation types covering different learning objectives.
Some of the unique aspects of this event include being able to properly
anticipate and effectively warn for widespread severe weather and a
devastating tornado event. The low number of tornadic storms also
provides a unique opportunity to explore discriminating tornado
forecasting in an environment with high expectations and important
variations on the mesoscale. In addition to the tornado element of the
event, widespread large hail occurred (golf ball and some baseball
size), and a few storms produced isolated damaging wind gusts (50 to 60
kt). Flooding was not reported for this event. For a plot of storm data
and the report list, see Appendix D.

 Please read Tips no. **3** in Appendix C.

**REAL TIME SIMULATION**

8 April 1998 Birmingham,, AL

**Focus**

This real time simulation [focuses]{.underline} [on]{.underline} the
area of the CWA that contains hail-producing supercells becoming more
elevated with time. The simple signatures and manageable workload with
these storms allow the trainee time to [focus on using WarnGen and
developing timing skills]{.underline}. We have found this simulation
particularly appropriate for a [novice]{.underline} warning forecaster
who has been exposed to using WarnGen and can benefit from focusing
primarily on the [mechanics of issuing warnings]{.underline}.

 Please read Tips no. **4** in Appendix C.

**Facts**

Pre-simulation briefing: **15** min

Simulation: **2.75** hr

Post-simulation briefing: **30** min

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

approx simulation time: **3.0 hr**

Simulation begins at **2200 UTC** on 8 April

Simulation ends at **0045 UTC** on 9 April

**SIMULATION TASKS**

**Pre-simulation Briefing**

**[Trainer]{.underline}**

Make sure the trainee\'s own local procedures have been recreated on the
WES. Then set up the simulation and give the trainee a shift-change
briefing summarizing the threat for all severe weather types (tornado,
hail, wind, flooding). **To do this**:

1.  Provide some type of form or log sheet that allows the trainee to
    keep track of warnings issue and expiration time (see Appendix C).

2\. Close down existing D2D sessions and start the simulator for the
time period 2221 UTC on 8 April 1998. Then stop the simulator.

3\. Brief the trainee on the environment up to the start time. Actions
to consider:

1.  Overlay CWA map on 0.5^\"^ Z/SRM from KBMX radar to familiarize
    trainee with the geography.

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1.  Inform the trainee that he or she will be responsible for warning
    for all storms south through east of the radar.

2.  With the SPC products (Appendix B), point out that the warning
    sector is in a high risk area, within but close to the edge of a
    particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch with threat for
    damaging tornadoes, 3-in diameter hail, and wind gusts to 80 mph.

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1.  Point out the developing East-West oriented band of convection
    moving into the warning sector.

2.  Show that the 4-panel Eta family (regional scale) is developing
    storms over northern AL, ahead of the upper forcing and cold front
    by 00 UTC.

3.  Load the surface obs on a clear state scale, then vis satellite,
    then CAPE (LAPS), then CIN (4-product overlay). Point out storms
    will be moving into colder, more stable air as they cross a
    significant n-s oriented stability boundary in this warning sector.
    Storms should be monitored for signs of rapid changes in
    intensification/ rotation, but the tornado threat decreases as the
    storms move into deeper colder air.

4.  Load a LAPS 0-6 km bulk shear vector horizontal plot using the
    volume browser (under the "Fields" menu select "Convect" and then
    "Shear Fields" to locate it)

on a WFO scale map to point out wide-spread strong shear (\~ 70 kts)
supporting\
supercells over the whole CWA.

1.  Load a LAPS "Right-Moving Supercell" storm motion horizontal plot to
    show its predicted motion of \~250° at 35 kt.

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1.  Load a LAPS point sounding in Tallapoosa county using the volume
    browser.

2.  Point out that the significant instability is elevated (surface
    based \~600 J/kg, elevated parcel \~ 1600 J/kg - using the
    interactive skew-T), and that may limit tornado production.

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1.  Point out that the moderate helicity (200-250 m/s using
    LAPS-estimated storm motion and the hodograph) will likely not be
    realized with elevated storms, thus decreasing the tornado threat.

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1.  Point out that although wet-bulb zero heights are relatively high
    (11.7 kft), supercell processes still support large hail growth.

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1.  Show that saturated/stable air and weak winds in lower troposphere
    may limit the wind threat.

2.  Point out that widespread flooding is not expected given fast storm
    motions.

3.  Load an ETA point sounding on CONUS scale for the same point and
    illustrate the increased threat of severe weather with time as the
    wind fields are expected to strengthen from 18 to 00 UTC.

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4.  Inform the trainee that the flash flood guidance for the BMX CWA is
    approximately 1.5" for one hour, and 2" for three hours.

5\. **Pre-simulation summary.** The expectation is the development of
supercell storms that may become more elevated with time as they move
into the colder, stable air. The tornado threat will be maximized as
storms cross the n-s oriented stability boundary, so storms should be
monitored closely for rapid increases in intensity and rotation. The
most common threat for storms will be large hail, though very large
sizes may be limited by high wet-bulb zero heights and elevated
instability. Damaging wind threat is low initially though threat
increases slightly with time as the models forecast strengthening wind
fields. Flash flooding threat is low due to relatively fast storm
motions.

**SIMULATION TASKS**

**In-Simulation**

This 2.75-hour simulation starts at 2200 UTC on 8 April 1998, and ends
at 0045 UTC on April 9 th , 1998. Inform the trainee that the area of
warning responsibility will be for the sector containing all storms
south and east of the radar. Refer to the Trainer Evaluation Guide (page
x) to assist in evaluating trainee performance.

# Trainer Tasks

1\. Explain the objectives to the trainee (see page 3).

2\. Inform the trainee that you (trainer) will be forwarding spotter
reports to the trainee during the simulation. There will be
[no]{.underline} [pauses]{.underline} during the simulation.

3\. Close down existing D2D sessions and start the simulation for the
time period 2200 UTC on 8 April 1998 to 0045 UTC on 9 April. Then start
new D2D sessions.

\[*Note that this start time is earlier than in the pre-simulation
briefing to allow you some extra time to show the trainee how to issue a
warning and severe weather statement, and save the product to a file. If
only a single monitor exists, the trainer may wish to load two D2D
sessions on one monitor to help mitigate the hardware limitation*\]

4\. Take about 10 minutes to show the trainee how to create a
**warning**, **follow-on severe weather statement**, and how to save it
to a file. To export a warning

to a file after the warning has been typed up:

**•** In the text editor, click under "File", "Export to File\...".

**•** Type in the name of the warning at the end of the path in the
"filename"

box on the bottom of the popup window and click OK.

5\. Tell the trainee to take 5-10 min to set up the D2D sessions and
start warning.

6\. During the simulation, provide storm reports as *spotter reports*.
Use the

reports listed in the Trainer Evaluation Guide on page 2-6 (consult
image in

Appendix A for graphical locations).

7\. **Evaluate the trainee's ability to issue timely severe weather
products and**

**warning routines** using the Trainer Evaluation Guide on page 2-6.

8\. At 0045 UTC (the end of the simulation), give the trainee a 5 min
break.

**SIMULATION TASKS**

**Post-simulation Briefing**

This is the time to discuss the trainee's ability to issue timely severe
weather products and the warning routines used in the simulation.

## Trainer Tasks

1\. Ask the trainee to evaluate (verbally ) his own performance,
highlighting:

**-** his/her use of WarnGen to create warnings.

**-** his/her use WarnGen to issue severe weather statements as a
follow-up warn-ing product.

**-** his/her routine for evaluating the threat for tornadoes, hail,
wind, and flooding.

2\. Discuss with the trainee your observations of the trainee\'s
performance during the simulation. Make use of the warning files saved
in the evaluation process.

**Trainer Evaluation Guide**

Recall that the focus of this simulation (Real Time) is *not* on whether
correct warning decisions were made; rather, it is on whether:

a\) the warnings and severe wx statements were created
properly/efficiently

b\) appropriate warning routines used to evaluate the severe wx
potential.

The list below consists of suggested issues to evaluate while the
trainee is creating products, and a storm-by-storm breakdown of
important features in the data (and spotter reports) for your use during
the simulation as well:

## Warnings

**-** Is the method of calculating the storm motion with WarnGen
adequate?

• Does the trainee start at the end of a loop of 0.5° reflectivity and
step back

3-4 frames before dragging the circle to the feature being tracked?

• Does the trainee step through the loop to insure the tracking is
adequate and\
correct it if it is not?

**-** Does the trainee click on the Redo Box button to redraw the box
after obtaining an\
adequate storm motion?

**-** Does the trainee modify the polygon appropriately next to county
bound-aries?

Are all counties in polygon selected correctly before warning text is
created?

**-** Is the duration of the warning appropriate for the workload?

**-** Does the trainee utilize the appropriate product type and optional
bullets in choosing the text?

• Is the text modified to discuss only the *primary* threats specific to
the storm\
being interrogated? (are they over-using call to action statements?)

• Is the magnitude of the threat conveyed clearly in the warning (e.g.
quarter- or baseball-size hail)?

• Are spotter observations mentioned in the text?

**-** Does the trainee appear to read the warning before sending it out?

• Are there text mistakes in the warnings?

**-** Are the important cities in the path of the storm identified in
the warning?

**-** Is pathcasting overly precise, given uncertainty in the movement
of the storm?

**-** Is the trainee falling behind in monitoring all the storms due to
problems using WarnGen?

## Severe Weather Statements

**-** Is the polygon moved and resized reasonably to where the storm is
at the

latest 0.5° reflectivity image in the loop?

**-** Is any new pertinent information being included in the statement
(storm has intensified, weakened, showing signs of even larger hail)?

**-** Are the follow-on statements timely given the workload (at least 1
per warning)?

**-** Does the content of the statement reflect the locations and
general content

of the original warning?

## Methodology

**-** Does trainee evaluate each severe wx threat prior to creating the
first warning?

**-** Are the product choices optimal to evaluating the threat?

**-** Is the trainee using all tilts Z/SRM to evaluate the latest data
and three-

dimensional storm structure?

**-** Are the tilts in the 4-panel chosen appropriately to sample the
low, middle, and upper levels of the storm to look at temporal changes
in the evolution?

**-** Is SRM being used to evaluate rotation?

**-** Is the 0.5° base velocity periodically checked for signs of strong
ground-relative

winds even though the wind threat is not high?

**-** Are the radar-estimated precipitation totals checked occasionally,
particularly for\
the storms moving over the same area in Tallapoosa and Chambers county?

**-** For hail threat, are the reflectivity characteristics in mid/upper
levels evaluated with all tilts Z/SRM (or layer 2 LRM) and VIL, for high
reflectivity cores aloft?

**- Are** base data used along with derived products (VIL, CR, radar
algorithms)?

**-** Are satellite data being monitored for cold cloud tops and
overshooting tops?

**-** Are lightning data being used to look for dense clusters of cloud
to ground

lightning indicating strong updrafts?

**-** Are changes in objective analysis fields such as LAPS CAPE/CIN,
etc. being investigated at some time during the simulation?

**-** Are raw environmental observations investigated (surface obs, KBMX
VWP)?

**-** Are meso-analysis fields reviewed when new surface obs are in at
the top of the\
hour and when the new objective analysis fields are in at 20 min after
the hour?

**-** Are the most recent data always being accessed when evaluating a
storm?

\- Is the trainee using the overestimates in the hail algorithm maximum
estimated hail size in the warning, or are they using the algorithm
output as general guidance?

**-** Is the trainee able to perform tasks and still keep up with new
incoming data?

**General Issues**

  -------------- --------------------------------------------------------
  **Time (UTC)** **Description**

  **2356**       Precipitation accumulations from KBMX are reset to zero
                 (This is an artifact of the process of developing this
                 case).
  -------------- --------------------------------------------------------

## Storm Summary

During the simulation there are at least five storms south and east of
the radar that require more detailed monitoring. The first storm to
monitor moves from

Elmore to Tallapoosa to Chambers county and produces hail up to golf
ball size.

The second storm moves over the same path as the first (Elmore to
Tallapoosa to Chambers county #2) and produces hail up to golf ball
size. The third through fifth storms to monitor evolve out of a
multi-cell complex with right movers and left movers. The left moving
storm that moves from Chilton to Coosa to Talladega

county produces dime-size hail, and the other storms have no severe
weather reported with them. Though there is rotation in mid- and upper
levels, there is no organized low-level rotation with any of the storms.
The southeast part of the CWA can be used as a good example of how to
safely discriminate between tornadic and non-tornadic storms using radar
data and mesoscale analysis. The lack of organized low-level rotation
and the elevated instability (and high surface-based CIN) combine to
suggest the tornado threat, in this situation, was inhibited due to the
elevated nature of the storms.

**Elmore-Tallapoosa-Chambers County Storm Reports**

+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **Time (UTC)**  | **Description**                                     |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2300**        | 1\" hail 8 N Dadeville (Tallapoosa county)          |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2314-2325     | VIL 65 and 70 kg/m 2 , HI MEHS suggests golf ball   |
| KBMX**          | to baseball hail                                    |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2325**        | golf ball hail 3 N Lafayette (Chambers county)      |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2330**        | 1\" hail 8 N-NE Lafayette (Chambers county)         |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2233 KBMX**   | broad appendage developing, though low level not    |
|                 | organized                                           |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2210**        | nickel hail in Deatsville (Elmore county)           |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2228 KBMX**   | LRM high reflectivity core aloft intensifying on    |
|                 | cyclonic member of splitting storm                  |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2238 KBMX**   | VIL increase to 45 kg/m^2^                          |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2249 KBMX**   | VIL increase to 55 kg/m^2^                          |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2250**        | 1\" hail 6 S Alexander City (Tallapoosa county)     |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| **2335**        | hail 9 NE Lafayette (Chambers county)               |
|                 |                                                     |
|                 | dime size in Fredonia (eastern Chambers county)     |
|                 |                                                     |
|                 | quarter size in Five Points                         |
|                 |                                                     |
|                 | golf ball size in Buffalo (central Chambers county) |
+-----------------+-----------------------------------------------------+

Additional Storm Reports appear in Appendix D. The entire collection of
Storm Reports for this event are included in the WDTB\'s (National
Weather Service 2002) simulation guide for this event
(http://www.comet.ucar.edu/strc/drt/index.htm).

Autauga-Elmore-Tallapoosa-Chambers County Storm (#2) Reports

Chilton-Coosa-Talladega County Storm (left mover) Reports

Dallas-Chilton-Coosa County Storm (right mover) Reports

**Reference**

National Weather Service, 2002: Weather Event Simulator. *Simulation
Guide: April 8, 1998 Event*, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, 56 pp. \[Available from the
NWS Warning Decision Training Branch, Norman, Oklahoma.\]

**Appendix A**

**Recommended Format of Eastern Region Simulation Guides**

**Introduction**

**-describes the contents of the simulation guide and how to use it**

> **-briefly states which types of simulation were employed in this
> training**

**Overview of the weather event**

1.  Paragraph1 **provides a summary of the key components of this event.
    This not only gives the reader an overview of the weather that
    occurred on that day, but also states which aspects of the event
    were particularly challenging, leading to the event\'s
    identification as a training case.**

2.  Paragraph2 **answers two important questions:**

**i) why was this even chosen?**

**ii) what can be learned from this event?**

**Simulation(s)**

**For your guide to be useful and easy to follow, *each* type of
simulation that you used in your training should occupy its own section,
and should include:**

1.  Introduction **-** \"This real-time simulation (for example) focuses
    on\...\"

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1.  Training objectives **-** \"At completion\...should be able to\...\"

2.  **-** Instructions for the *Pre-simulation briefing, Simulation, and
    the Post-simulation briefing*

3.  Trainer Evaluation Guide

> i\) This section suggests to the trainer issues to evaluate *while*
> the trainee iscreating products during the simulation.
>
> Example: Is the method of calculating storm motion with WarnGen
> adequate?

2.  This section also provides a storm-by-storm breakdown of important
    features in the data, for use *during* the simulation

(warnings, severe weather statements, storm reports, spotter

reports, storm summary, etc.)

1.  Trainee Job Sheet - provided to the trainee when the [Virtual
    Reality]{.underline} type of simulation is employed (self-study
    version).

**Appendix B**

**Simulation Strategies**

(as defined by the WDTB)

**Real-time Simulation**

A real-time simulation focuses on mastering warning mechanics and
developing routines where the simulation runs from start to finish
without interruption. The training objective is to demonstrate effective
and timely manipulation of AWIPS data and applications (e.g., WarnGen)
for the purpose of developing timely warning products.

**Interval-Based Simulation**

An interval-based simulation focuses on detailed discussions of critical
warning points utilizing pauses in the simulation. The training
objectives are to demon-strate methods of data interpretation, effective
use of AWIPS data, proper type and content of warnings, and weighing
information in the decision making process. In addition, the trainee
should demonstrate ways to handle uncertainty in the warning decision
making process.

The objectives of the interval-based simulation are achieved by the
**trainer and trainee** working together through a simulation that is
occasionally paused to invoke the question-and-answer process. Direct
observation of actions taken by the trainee during important decision
points during the simulation can provide excellent opportunities for the
trainer to discuss applications of effective warning decision making.

**Situation Awareness Simulation**

A situation awareness simulation focuses on evaluating the trainee's
ability to perceive and understand warning inputs and project this into
expectations and action. For this level of simulation, the trainer will
occasionally pause the simulation to query the trainee on interpretation
of events. Through this process, the trainer attempts to deduce whether
the trainee is maintaining all three levels of situation awareness. The
training objective at this level of simulation is to ***demonstrate
awareness of the situation.***

During this type of simulation, the pausing or "freezing" of simulated
data (at an unannounced time) provides an opportunity for the trainer to
assess the level of situation awareness that the trainee has of a given
situation by asking three questions:

**1.** Does the trainee recognize the data? (e.g. are they aware of all
potentially severe storms?

**2.** Does the trainee understand the meaning of the data? (Vr of
50kts, strong backing low-level winds, etc.)

**3.** Has the trainee formed an expectation based on these data?

As in the interval-based simulation, monitoring of the trainee's level
of situation awareness and subsequent decision-making process is only
achieved via the trainer's questioning on the methodologies and
conceptual models used in the decision-making process.

**Virtual Reality Simulation**

The virtual reality simulation mode is intended to most closely resemble
what can happen in the office for a real event. The training objective
of the virtual reality simulation is to effectively manage all aspects
of a challenging and distracting warning environment while still
producing quality products. For example, the trainer might provide
conflicting information (spotter reports without supporting radar data)
or interject problems (primary radar data unavailable) that the trainee
has to react to and overcome during the simulation. This simulation
focuses on the highest level of performance and critical thinking skills
that should be present with an expert warning forecaster. Running the
expert fore-casters on staff first through the virtual reality
simulation may be a good place to start using WES to enhance a local
training plan. Experiences in this simulation can be used to incorporate
local knowledge and expertise into future simulations for others
forecasters on staff.

**Appendix C**

**Trainer Tips**

 Tips No. **1** (page 3) - **How to create useful training objectives**

Mager (1984) reminds us that**: a truly useful training objective is one
that succeeds in communicating an instructional *outcome*** rather than
a process or a procedure. **It describes *intended results*** rather
than the means of achieving them.. He defines the
[characteristics]{.underline} of a useful training objective:

**Performance:** what the trainee is to be able to [do]{.underline}
(sometimes describes the *product* or *result* of the doing)

\- \"doing\" words: running, solving, discriminating, writing, stating,
listing, editing, recognizing, recall, etc.

\- \"being\" words: understanding, appreciating, knowing

**Conditions:** important conditions (if any) under which the
performance is expected to occur

**Criterion**: the quality or level of performance that will be
considered acceptable (this is sometimes impractical to state in the
objectives)

*You may already know that it is quite easy to get \'hung up\' on
writing \"perfect\" training objectives that follow all guidelines.
Don\'t lose the forest for the trees on this one, and remember that some
of those characteristics listed above really aren\'t workable in some
objectives that you write. Just compose the best statements that you
can, because the better they are, the better and more successful the
training experience will be for everyone.*

 Tips No. **2** (page 4) - Answer **\'Why did you choose this event for
training?\'**

Note the information that was provided for this simple overview:

\- It was [known early in the day]{.underline} that this was an
environment suggesting widespread severe weather, including strong
tornadoes; in other words, *what was expected*

\- but the end result included a [much less significant occurrence of
tornadoes in CWA than expected]{.underline} (the strength of each
tornado was included along with specific details of the F5); in other
words, *what actually occurred*.

 Tips No. **3** (page 4) - Answer **\'Why did you choose this event for
training?\'**

The point of this whole paragraph is to answer the two questions:

**Why was this particular event chosen as a training case**

and

**what can be learned from it?**

a\) the widespread nature of the event *allows focus on many different
aspects of the severe weather*, including properly anticipating and
warning for widespread severe weather and significant tornado event
(large hail also occurred, but few storms produced damaging winds, with
NO flooding reported).

b\) the number of storms that were actually tornadic was low; this fact
yielded an opportunity to explore greater discrimination in tornado
forecasting in a tornadic environment.

**Appendix D**

**Storm Reports**

The following is an example of the storm reports that were included in
the original WDTB simulation guide for this event. They were included in
the guide as a reference and for use during the simulation itself.

> 14 **Walker County**

Goodsprings 2350 **Hail (1.75)**

Golf-ball-size hail was reported in Goodsprings, in the southern part of
the county.

> 15 **Chilton County**

14 NW Clanton 2350 **Hail (0.75)**

Dime-size hail was reported in Union Grove.

> 16 **Winston County**

5.2 SE Arley 2350 **Thunderstorm Wind (G50)**

There were several trees reported down and porches were blown off a few
lake homes in the area along Simth Lake southeast of Arley.

> 17 **Pickens County**

2 S Gordo to 0001 **Tornado (F3)**

4.1 SE Gordo 0005

> 18 **Tuscaloosa County**

1.4 NW Holman to 0005 **Tornado (F3)**

7.6 N Northport

This was the first of three tornadoes produced by one supercell
thunderstorm moving across central Alabama. The tornado began at 7:01 pm
CDT just south of Gordo in extreme eastern Pickens County and traveled
east-northeast moving into Tuscaloosa County around 7:05 pm CDT. The
tornado stayed mostly in rural areas crossing the swampy area of the
Sipsey River and a number of small roads before crossing SR 21. It
remained in rural areas crossing SR 171 and US 43. the tornado
dissipated at Lake Tuscaloosa just south of where SR 69 crosses the
lake.

Emergency management reported that five single-family dwellings were
destroyed along with major damage reported to one house and minor damage
to 23 others. Eleven mobile homes were destroyed and three mobile homes
were damaged. A couple from North Carolina camping at Lake Lurleen lost
everything.

> 19 **Lauderdale County**

2 S Lexington 0004 **Hail (1.75)**

Golf-ball-size hail was reported just south of Lexington.

> 20 **Cullman County**
>
> 4 WNW Cullman 0005 **Hail (0.75)**

Dime-size hail was reported in Baldwin.

Storm Data from 2100 UTC on 4/8/98 through 0230 UTC on 4/9/98

> **Rpt# Location Time (UTC) Storm Characteristic**
>
> 1 **Newton County**

Union 0000 **Hail (0.75)**

> 2 **Kemper County**

De Kalb 0010 **Thunderstorm Wind**

Three roofs of houses were damaged and one roof was blown off. Several
trees and power lines were blown down.

> 3 **Newton County**

Union 0215 **Hail (0.75)**

**Rpt# Location Time (UTC) Storm Characteristic**
![](media/image6.emf){width="2.5in" height="2.203472222222222in"}

> 1 **Alcorn County**

Collinstown 2212 **Hail (1.75)** 2220

> 2 **Alcorn County**

Collinstown 2212 **Thunderstorm Wind** 2220

**Appendix E**

**SPC Products**

This is an example of the SPC products that were included in the
original WDTB simulation guide for this event. They were included in the
guide for reference and use during the simulation itself.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK\...REF AFOS NMCGPH940

REF WW NUMBER 0183\...VALID TIL 1900Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI\...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

ALABAMA\...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS AREA IS TO THE

RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MKL 40 WSW CSV 35 WSW TYS 35 SSW 50 NW AND
20

S AND 30 E LGC 20 W AUO 35 SW CKL 45 ESE GWO 30 SE UOX 35 SSE MKL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI\...SOUTHERN ALABAMA\...CENTRAL

GEORGIA\...CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA\...MUCH

OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE NORTH OF THE HIGH RISK AREA. THIS AREA

IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N NCB 30 SW GWO 15 ESE MEM TO MKL TO
BNA

20 ENE HSS 30 NNW GSO 10 NW RDU 15 E FAY TO FLO 35 ENE DHN 35 NNE MOB 35

ESE MCB 35 N MCB.

(SLIGHT RISK AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA OMITTED)

\...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE

SOUTHEASTERN US. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND

16Z.

\...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DISCUSSION\...

POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN HAS EVOLVED OVER SOUTHEASTERN US

WITH MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF

STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER JET.

SITUATION COMPLEX WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY WITH IMPRESSIVE

BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ISOLATED SEVERE

STORMS ALONG GULF COAST.

MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP

THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF TENNESSEE / ALABAMA BORDER AND DEEPEN

NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG

MID AND UPPER WINDS, CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FOR

SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF

STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
HIGH

RISK WHICH WAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND NORTH-WESTWARD INTO

SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

**Convective Outlook for 1500 UTC on 04/08/98**

![](media/image7.emf){width="1.7180555555555554in"
height="1.2798611111111111in"}

BULLETIN -IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188

STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

135 PM CDT WED APR 8 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM

UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY

OF VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.ALSO\...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN

DIAMETER\...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH\...AND DANGEROUS

LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH

AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD

MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ANNISTON ALABAMA.

REMEMBER\...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE

FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE

WATCH AREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT

FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER

STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION\...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OUR OF AR INTO

MS AS STRONG S/WV APPROACHES FROM TX WITH ASSOCIATED POTENT

WIND PROFILES.AIRMASS NOW VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 2500

J/KG MS INTO WRN AL.CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELLS AND

TORNADOES.

AVIATION\...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES.EXTREME TURBULENCE AND

SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH

MAXIMUM TOPS TO 520.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

**Graphic for Tornado Watch #188**

![](media/image8.emf){width="2.209722222222222in"
height="2.0527777777777776in"}