**[NASA SCIENCE MISSION DIRECTORATE]{.smallcaps}**

**[Applied Sciences Program]{.smallcaps}**

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*Earth Science for Disaster Management*

Detecting Tropical Floods and Landslides using NASA-based Precipitation
Information

***Disaster Management Project Plan: 2005-2006***

*May 16, 2005*

*Goddard Space Flight Center*

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*Earth Science Exploration Serving Society*

> *Accelerating the realization of economic*
>
> *and societal benefits from Earth science,*
>
> *information, and technology ...*

####### Disaster Management Project Plan: 2005-2008

####### *Detecting Tropical Floods and Landslides using NASA-based Precipitation Information*

####### Table of Contents

####### 

1\. Purpose and Scope Page 2

2\. Project Goals and Objectives Page 2

3\. Project Team Page 3

4\. Roles and Responsibilities Page 3

5\. Systems Engineering Process Page 4

6\. Schedule and Deliverables Page 5

7\. Budget Page 7

8\. Performance Measures Page 8

9\. Signatures Page 8

Detecting Tropical Floods and Landslides using NASA-based Precipitation
Information

Project Plan

### 1. Purpose and Scope

Floods and associated landslides account for the largest number of
natural disasters and affect more people than any other types of natural
disasters around the world. During 1993--2002, over 1000 of the more
than 2,900 natural disasters reported were due to floods (World Disaster
Report, 2003). These floods claimed over 90,000 lives, affected over 1.4
billion people and cost about \$210 billion (US Dollars in 2002).
Various U.S. national agencies (e.g., USAID), NGO's (Non-Government
Organizations, e.g., International Red Cross) and international
organizations (e.g., UNESCO) require real-time, global information on
existing and potential natural disasters for response, preparedness,
planning and mitigation. NOAA and the USGS also require real-time,
global information for their forecast and hazard models.

While over most of the developed world conventional observations (e.g.,
ground-based radars and rain gauges) are sufficient for the prediction,
detection and monitoring of floods and related landslides, in the
developing world in the tropics, these conventional observations are
sparse or unavailable. The proposed work seeks to fill this gap by
applying quasi-global satellite-based precipitation information,
combined with satellite-based surface information (e.g., elevation,) and
hydrological models to provide critical information as input into
Decision Support Systems (DSS's) used by these organizations. Examples
of such DSS's are the Asia Flood Network (AFN) and the Famine Early
Warning System (FEWS) developed by USGS/NOAA and used by USAID. Regional
application to NWS AWIPS DSS's will also be explored.

[2. Project Goals and Objectives]{.underline}

a)  Provide NASA-based data sets of precipitation and land surface
    characteristics for use in quasi-global flood and landslide DSS's
    (developed by USGS/NOAA partners for USAID and NOAA/NWS use) for use
    in disaster management, response, preparedness and mitigation
    activities around the globe. This application activity will be built
    on the solid foundation of the substantial NASA work already done in
    producing quasi-global precipitation information in real-time.

b)  Support partners in implementing the improved DSS's and verify and
    validate the usefulness of the NASA-based data sets and benchmark
    the resulting, improved DSS's in cooperation with USGS, NOAA and
    USAID.

[3. Project Team]{.underline}

[Program management]{.underline}

Stephen Ambrose, NASA Headquarters

## NASA/Goddard

Principal investigator: Robert F. Adler

Co-investigator: Andrew J. Negri

Co-investigator: George Huffman, SSAI

Co-investigator: Scott Braun

POC: Shadid Habib

## NOAA

Co-Principal investigator: John McGinley, Forecast Systems Laboratory

Agency representative: Curtis B. Barrett, NWS/HQTR

## USGS

Co-Principal investigator: James P. Verdin, EROS Data Center

Co-Principal investigator: Jonathan Godt. Central Region

Co-Investigator: Gerald Wieczorek, Western Region

Agency representative (Hydrology): Matthew Larsen, Headquarters

Agency representative: (Geology): Randall Updike, Central Region

## USAID

Agency representative: Sezin Tokar, OFDA

[4. Roles and Responsibilities]{.underline}

The project will be jointly directed by Adler (NASA) as the PI and Lead
System Integrator, and the Co-PIs from USGS (Verdin, Godt) and NOAA
(McGinley). The agency representatives from USAID (Tokar), USGS (Larsen)
and NOAA (Barrett) will advise the PIs and help coordinate activities to
ensure success. They will also be heavily involved in interaction with
the user community, for example, selecting organizations for invitation
to the user's workshops. NASA will develop the software to use the
satellite data (especially precipitation information) and has a key role
as part of the inter-agency team in the implementation of the global
products, the evaluation of data sets and the benchmarking of results,
and identification of pathways toward additional technique improvements.
NASA and NOAA will work on the use of global and regional model-produced
rainfall forecasts as input. USGS will have primary responsibility for
selection and adaptation of landslide models and development of slope
information from elevation data sets and will have a key role in
evaluating the scientific results in terms of floods and landslides.
USGS and NOAA will have joint responsibility for selection and
adaptation of flood algorithms.

USAID is the prime U.S. agency in this activity for the use of the
global product as an enhancement to the current USGS-developed and
NOAA-developed DSS's that they use. They and their partners will be a
focus of benchmarking of the global products in terms of utility,
especially where they have regional flood and drought mitigation
projects already in place (e.g., South Asia). USAID and USGS contacts in
the IHP \[International Hydrology Programme\](to which USGS is the U.S.
representative), World Meteorological Organization, and NHMS's (National
Hydrology and Meteorological Services) will identify additional NHMS's,
IO's, and NGO's to participate in a user group workshop very early in
the project. USGS is already actively working with USAID and foreign
national hydrologic agencies to use models as part of hydrologic
decision systems. USGS is also actively working with NMHS's in a number
of countries, especially in the Caribbean/Central America region, on
their national hydrologic DSS's. The International Activities Office
(IAO) of the NWS serves as the focal point for NHMS of other countries
and administers assistance to other countries in crisis with
meteorological and hydrologic support.

[5. Systems Engineering Process/Approach]{.underline}

#### a) Evaluation

*[User Requirement Workshop]{.underline}* A user workshop will be held
to determine requirements for global and regional application of the
DSS's and criteria for validation and benchmarking the results.
Potential users from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NHMS) and regional hydrological organizations, national and
international NGOs (e.g., International Red Cross), and key
international bodies (UNESCO, IHP \[International Hydrology Programme\]
will be invited. Preliminary implementation strategies will be also be
critiqued by the user community.

*[Data evaluation.]{.underline}* The NASA data sets will be evaluated to
confirm their applicability to the candidate DSS's and determine any
modification to these data or additional data quality, resolution, etc.
requirements.

*[Investigation of global numerical model precipitation
forecasts]{.underline}.* An evaluation will be made of global numerical
model precipitation forecasts available in real-time for potential use
in extending the flood and landslide warning lead times. Possible
candidates include the NWS/NCEP global model, the new NASA/Goddard fvGCM
(R. Atlas et al., 2004) which will provide 0.25° latitude-longitude
resolution rainfall in real-time under current planning, and the Florida
State University (FSU) super ensemble, which assimilates TRMM data and
other satellite precipitation data.

#### b) Verification and validation

*[Verify/validate flood and landslide detection DSS's]{.underline}*.
Enhanced DSS systems utilizing the global NASA data sets will be
produced and run for test periods and locations for verification and
validation. This will be done in a preliminary version of the use of the
new data and in a final version. The first implementation will allow for
early feedback from the users and the use of information on
implementation methods, data sets, etc. to be used for the final
version. The successful use of the NASA space data in the DSS's will be
documented, validating that the spatial, temporal and accuracy
requirements for the input data are sufficient for positive results.
Modification to the data input and/or to the algorithms themselves will
be made to optimize the results with the new data inputs.

#### c) Benchmarking

*[Benchmarking flood and landslide detection techniques]{.underline}*.
The enhanced DSS's will be tested on a global, tropical basis to
benchmark their improvement. Probability of detection and false alarm
rates will be calculated by examining at least a seasons worth of
activity. Determination of flood events will be accomplished by use of
data from Dartmouth University's flood site (using MODIS and other
satellite data to identify the impact of floods) and other sources,
including NWS over the U.S., other national organizations and even the
media. A limited number of high profile case studies will be intensely
studied for determination of accuracy and for improved understanding of
the ability of the algorithms in terms of timing of the event and its
evolution. These would most likely be in South Asia (where
USAID/USGS-supported programs are using our data) and the
Caribbean/Central American area of interest to the HFL group, of which
we are a part.

[6. Schedule and Deliverables]{.underline}

*[Year 1:]{.underline}*

1)  Form user advisory group and hold first workshop to define data and
    DSS output requirements for primary products;

2)  Complete evaluation of NASA products as input into DSS's

3)  Implement first-cut or prototype flood and landslide test algorithm
    using slope threshold and global rain rate/amount criteria.

4)  Initiate benchmarking activities on both global and regional scales;

5)  Establish website for display of products (either public or limited
    access depending on early evaluation and user feedback);

6)  Generate conference presentation on first-cut algorithms and
    results.

*[Year 2:]{.underline}*

1)  Work with partners to implement enhanced flood DSS based on user
    input/feedback;

2)  Work with partners to implement enhanced landslide DSS based on user
    input/feedback;

3)  Complete benchmarking of first-cut algorithms, including
    flood/landslide event case studies focusing on South Asia
    (SA)/Caribbean-Central America (CCA) areas;

4)  Initiate benchmarking of enhanced algorithms, including same (as
    above) flood/landslide event case studies;

5)  Hold team meeting, including selected user groups, to review
    progress and directions;

6)  Support partners to improve website with enhanced DSS's;

7)  Benchmark at least one global weather forecast model product and
    regional-model forecasts over CCA to extend forecast lead time in
    flood and landslide predictions;

8)  Generate journal article on project, results to date and future
    projections.

*[Year 3:]{.underline}*

1)  Refine use of data in primary flood algorithm;

2)  Refine use of data in primary landslide algorithm;

3)  Complete benchmarking of DSS's, both on global scale and studies
    focusing on South Asia (SA)/Caribbean-Central America (CCA) areas;

4)  Hold workshop to review impacts of results with user groups;

5)  Work with partners to transfer enhanced flood and landslide
    DSS's/monitoring systems to operational status at USGS and NOAA
    (including AWIPS), in support of USAID programs and use by IOs,
    NGOs, etc.

6)  Complete benchmarking of global weather forecast model products and
    regional-model forecasts over both CCA and other regions to quantify
    value in flood and landslide predictions;

7)  Generate second journal article on project, summarizing project
    results and future projections.

[8.0 Performance Measures]{.underline}

The group of agency representatives will monitor the performance of
individual elements of the project and the performance of the project as
a whole. Progress will be addressed relative to a detailed plan and
schedule to be developed at the beginning of the funded project. The
schedule in this plan will serve as the starting point for the detailed
schedule. For each project sub-element (at the level of each item in the
schedule in this proposal) progress will be evaluated in terms of green
(everything progressing on schedule), yellow (possible problem impacting
overall project) and red (major problem needing focused attention). As
solutions are found to the yellow and red-marked items, they will be
returned to green. The formation of the user advisory group will include
selection of Co-chairs (e.g., from one of the Caribbean/CA hydrological
services and one of the IO, NGO) to independently summarize progress on
an annual time scale.

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[10. Management Signatures]{.underline}

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Robert F. Adler

Senior Scientist

Science Exploration Directorate

NASA Goddard Space Center, Maryland

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Shahid Habib

Assistant Director for Planning and Applications

Science Exploration Directorate

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland

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Stephen Ambrose

Homeland Security Program Manager

NASA Earth Science Enterprise Applications Program