**June 2008 NC Weather Review**

**Monthly Headlines**

...Most of North Carolina experienced a very dry and hot June...

...Extreme to exceptional drought conditions worsen over the western
sections of the state... while drought conditions worsen again in the
east...

\...The Raleigh-Durham Airport location recorded their hottest June on
record....

**June 2008 Precipitation**

June turned out to be generally dry throughout the state. There were few
exceptions. The month began very hot and dry. Most locations generally
did not record a significant rain (more than a quarter of an inch)
through the first two weeks of the month. The most significant rain
events fell toward the end of the month, with the heaviest rainfall
totals coming on or around June 21-23 and June 29-30. The June rainfall
totals generally ranged between 1 and 4 inches across the state. These
amounts ranged only between 25 and 75 percent of normal. The driest
areas were again found over the southwest Mountains, where Asheville
tallied only 0.85 inches, (3.53 inches below normal). Those areas that
received near normal rainfall included: Raleigh-Durham, which totaled
4.08 inches (0.66 above normal), and Charlotte, which totaled 2.69
inches (0.73 inches below normal).

The June 2008 radar estimated rainfall totals are depicted in Figure 1,
while the observed rainfall totals and departures from normal for
selected locations are depicted in Figure 2.

![](media/image1.png){width="6.99375in" height="3.932638888888889in"}

**Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation amounts for June 2008.**

![](media/image2.wmf){width="5.583333333333333in"
height="3.8020833333333335in"}

**Figure 2. Comparison of observed and normal precipitation for June
2008 at selected locations across North Carolina.**

The stream flows into main stem rivers and local reservoirs showed
marked declines this month. Many of the area lakes and reservoirs over
central North Carolina were still running at full pool, courtesy of the
significant rains in March and April. It was a different story over the
western third of the state where the water levels remained at near
record low levels. The North Carolina Drought Monitor, shown in Figure
3, highlights the drought conditions across the state as of July 1,
2008. Of note were the continued worsening conditions, especially over
western North Carolina. The North Carolina Drought Monitor is updated
weekly and can be found by clicking here:

<http://www.ncwater.org/drought/>

![](media/image3.png){width="5.260416666666667in"
height="2.9791666666666665in"}

**Figure 3. N.C. Drought Monitor observed on July 1, 2008.**

**June 2008 Temperatures**

The June 2008 statewide average monthly temperatures soared to well
above normal levels. The monthly averages generally ranged from the
upper 70s to lower 80s east of the Mountains, with 60s and lower 70s
common over the Mountains. These readings were generally 3 to 6 degrees
above the 30 year normal for June.

Raleigh-Durham (RDU) recorded an average monthly temperature of 80.7
degrees. This temperature made June 2008 the all time hottest June on
record. Records have been kept at the Raleigh-Durham Airport location
since 1944. In addition, there were 3 new daily record high maximum
temperatures established and there were a total of 26 days in which
above normal temperatures occurred. To the south, Fayetteville (FAY) was
the hottest station this month, with an average temperature of 81.4
degrees. Greensboro was not left out as they recorded their second
hottest June on record and they tallied 3 new daily record highs this
month.

The total 90 degree days recorded were also well above normal. RDU
recorded 21 such days, and Greensboro totaled 14. More impressively, RDU
had a string of 4 straight 100 degree readings (June 7-10). This was the
longest string of 100 degree days for so early in the year at RDU.

The average monthly temperatures for selected areas across the state are
shown in Figure 4.

Figures 5 and 6 depict the daily maximum and minimum temperatures
observed during June 2008 at RDU and GSO, respectively.

![](media/image4.png){width="6.989583333333333in"
height="4.072916666666667in"}

**Figure 4. Monthly average temperatures for June 2008. Data was
obtained from official NWS ASOS sites and selected cooperative observer
reports.**

![](media/image5.wmf){width="5.53125in" height="3.2604166666666665in"}

**Figure 5. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during June
2008 at Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

![](media/image6.wmf){width="5.375in" height="3.2604166666666665in"}

**Figure 6. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during June
2008 at Greensboro (GSO).**

**Current, Semi-Annual and Annual Temperature Trends**

The hot June temperatures at Greensboro continued a trend of warmer than
normal monthly temperatures since August 2007. GSO has had eleven
straight months with warmer than normal monthly temperatures. Nine of
the past eleven months have been warmer than normal at RDU.

Eleven of the past thirteen months have been warmer than normal at RDU,
while twelve of the past thirteen months have been warmer than normal at
GSO (Figure 7).

![](media/image7.wmf){width="5.59375in" height="3.59375in"}

**Figure 7. Monthly temperature departures from normal at Raleigh-Durham
and Greensboro from June through June 2008.**

**Current, Semi-Annual, and Annual Precipitation Trends**

The hot and dry June was a red flag that the current drought conditions
may worsen further during the summer season, especially over western
North Carolina. It was not a good sign that rainfall was tailing off as
summer rapidly approached. Summer is the hottest time in which the
evaporation rates are highest.

On a brighter note, central sections of the state benefited from the
above normal spring rainfall totals in March and April. Even with the
subpar rainfall in May and June, four of the past eight months (50
percent) have been wetter than normal at Raleigh-Durham. For the
calendar year of 2008, RDU had a rainfall deficit of only 1.46 inches.
The rainfall deficit at RDU since the beginning of the current long term
drought in January 2007 (16 months ago) stood at 7.03 inches, on June
30, 2008.

At GSO, the long term rainfall deficit since January 1, 2007 was 13.18
inches, as of June 30, 2008. Figures 8 and 9 show the monthly
precipitation versus normal during the past 12 months at RDU and GSO,
respectively.

![](media/image8.wmf){width="5.71875in" height="3.96875in"}

**Figure 8. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at
Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

![](media/image9.wmf){width="5.447916666666667in" height="3.71875in"}

**Figure 9. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at Greensboro
(GSO).**

**North Carolina Water Resources Information and Outlook**

The very dry and hot June exacerbated the ongoing drought conditions
over much of the state. Even though central North Carolina greatly
benefitted from above normal rains in March and April, the southwestern
sections of the state did not. Areas from Cherokee and Asheville to
Charlotte and Hickory have seen a worsening of drought conditions since
April. This area of the state has the highest probability of continued
worsening drought conditions as we enter our hottest months (July and
August).

Even the areas over the interior of the state that benefited from the
heavy spring rains, appear vulnerable to worsening drought conditions
during the heat of the summer. In spite of full pool levels at many
major lakes, the ground water was not completely recharged by the spring
rains. This means that if there are long periods without significant
rainfall over the interior sections of the state, specifically in the
major metropolitan regions of Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High
Point, and Raleigh-Durham, the stream flow will quickly tail off. This
would greatly limit the recharge into the reservoirs. There could be a
repeat of last fall when some of the reservoirs, especially Falls Lake,
nearly disappeared.

Falls Lake, the water suppliers for Raleigh and surrounding towns, fell
to the all-time record low of 241.53 feet on December 25, 2007. The lake
level then responded quickly with the heavy rains in March and April,
rising over 8 feet to exceed full pool by late April and early May. The
lake then began to slowly fall again by late May, falling slightly below
full pool levels the last week of June. (See figure 10 below).

![](media/image10.png){width="6.99375in" height="4.782638888888889in"}

**Figure 10. Falls Lake level August 5, 2007 through July 1, 2008. A new
record minimum level of 241.53 feet was set on December 25, 2007. More
frequent rains through March and April allowed the lake level to
recharge quickly. The lake elevation rose nearly 10 feet in March and
April, filling the lake to nearly 2 feet above full pool.**

**Climate Outlook for the rest of the summer of 2008**

The Climate Prediction Center recently released the summer into early
autumn outlook. Details concerning this forecast can be found at the web
address below:

[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif)

The outlook for the next three months is for equal chances of the area
to receive above, near normal, or below normal rainfall. In other words,
there were no definitive signals pointing toward any of the three
categories. The 90 day rainfall outlook through October 1 can be seen in
Figure 11. Note that there were elevated odds of the southeastern U.S.
coast to see above normal rainfall for the next 90 days.

The U.S. Drought Outlook is depicted in Figure 12. Improvement is still
expected this summer

into the fall.

![](media/image11.png){width="5.625in" height="5.229166666666667in"}

**Figure 11. Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
through October 2008.**

![](media/image12.png){width="6.995833333333334in"
height="5.238888888888889in"}

**Figure 12. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, valid through October
2008.**

You can keep up with latest monthly and seasonal forecasts by visiting
the Climate Prediction Center website at
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/>.

**NC Weather Review Team**

Phillip Badgett

Barrett Smith