# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 09-03

September 2003

# West Africa: Bumper 2003/04 Cotton Harvest Forecast

# 2003/04 Global Grain Production Continues To Dwindle (See page 3)

Above average rainfall within the major cotton producing regions of West
Africa's Franc Zone should produce a bumper cotton harvest this year. 
Harvest begins next month and the 2003/04 crop is forecast at 4.32
million bales, up 0.35 million or 9 percent from last year. The Franc
Zone harvested 3.98 million bales of lint last year, which was slightly
above the 5-year average of 3.92 million bales. Cotton within West
Africa is typically planted from May to July and harvested from October
to December.

Francophone Africa or the cotton "Franc Zone" of west and central Africa
includes, in order of production, Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Cote
d\'Ivoire, Cameroon, Togo, Chad, Senegal, and the Central African
Republic. Record production for the region was set in 2001/02 with
output of 4.50 million bales. Rainfall in the major producing regions
has been above average with soil moisture reserves still high this
month.

![](media/image2.png){width="6.5in"
height="3.5208333333333335in"}Seasonal rainfall has been especially
favorable for the two largest cotton producers, Mali and Burkina Faso.
Both countries anticipate near record seasons. Record Franc Zone
production might have been achieved if Cote d'Ivoire were producing at
full capacity, but its northern cotton region experienced less favorable
rainfall and political uncertainty reduced producers' application of
inputs.

Other crops in West Africa will benefit from better moisture, and
above-average grain production is forecast. Cotton is grown as a rainfed
crop within the Franc Zone along with other cropping systems that
include corn, sorghum, millet, vegetables, cowpeas, and rice.

Across Africa, conditions vary. In East Africa, the major annual grain
harvest is nearing completion in the equatorial region and approaching
maturity further north. The grain harvest forecast in East Africa is
average for most countries due to good seasonal rainfall, with pockets
of poor crop production occurring along the coastal region of
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania, and the central and
southeastern Ethiopian highlands. The 2003/04 grain season begins in
southern Africa next month. South Africa, the region's major corn
producer, is expected to plant 6-10 percent less corn area than last
year due to low prices and high carry-over grain stocks. (*For more
information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134*.)

# China: Wet Weather Dampens 2003/04 Cotton Yield Prospects

China's 2003/04 cotton production is estimated at 25.5 million bales,
down 1.5 million or 6 percent from last month, but up 13 percent from
last year. Cotton area is estimated at 5.1 million hectares, up 2
percent from last month and up 22 percent from last year based on
information from Chinese government sources. The forecast yield of 1,089
kilograms per hectare is down 7 percent from last year's record yield,
but above the 5-year average. The yield reduction for 2003/04 is due to
unfavorable weather in many of China's cotton growing regions this
summer.

The most important cotton growing regions in China are the North China
Plain (40 to 45 percent of total production), Xinjiang (about 30
percent), and the Yangtze Valley (20 to 25 percent). Planting conditions
were generally favorable for spring cotton on the North China Plain
(NCP), although summer cotton sowing was delayed by the late winter
wheat harvest and localized drought. Abundant showers in July boosted
soil moisture for vegetative/flowering cotton, but relatively cool
temperatures slowed crop development. Persistent heavy rainfall,
cloudiness, and normal-to-cool temperatures in August and early
September caused more problems for cotton in many parts of the NCP,
including poor boll formation, boll shed, water logging, wilt, pest
outbreaks, and boll rot. Harvesting normally starts in September, but
cotton gin arrivals will be delayed by 10 to 20 days.

In Xinjiang and the Yangtze Valley, spring planting conditions were
wetter and cooler than normal. Excessive rain from mid-June to mid-July
caused flooding in Anhui and Jiangsu, and Chinese sources indicated more
than 100,000 hectares of cotton were destroyed. (*For more information,
contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133*.)

**2003/04 Global Grain Production Continues To Dwindle**

Forecast foreign grain output for 2003/04 is down 8 million tons from
last month's estimate, and 50 million or 4 percent from last year. Most
of the month-to-month drop comes from coarse grains, with corn
production estimated at 354.9 million tons, down 4 million from last
month and 18 million from last year. Wheat production in 2003/04 is
estimated at 484.7 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month, and
down 35 million from last year. Europe is experiencing its warmest and
driest season in decades, which is causing corn yields to drop. Due to
the timing and location of these conditions, crop production has not yet
fallen to the levels estimated from the 2001 drought. Australia's wheat
crop is forecast to be the third highest on record, due to favorable
rainfall since July. In Argentina, forecast wheat production dropped
this month, but is still higher than last year. Planting season is
nearly complete and is expected to be lower due to dry planting
conditions. (*For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at
202-720-7339*.)

# 

# European Union: Wheat and Corn Production for 2003/04 Below Average

Wheat production in the European Union is forecast to be 92.5 million
tons in 2003, a decrease of 2.0 million from last month, and down 10
percent from 103.3 million tons last year. Harvested area is estimated
to be 17.1 million hectares, compared to 17.7 million in 2002. Wheat
yield, at 5.43 tons per hectare, is forecast to be the lowest since
1995. Winter crop planting conditions were generally favorable in
western Europe last autumn, with the exception of excessive moisture in
southern Germany. Winter and spring moisture levels in Spain were
extremely favorable, and growing conditions were near normal in Italy
and the United Kingdom. March and April were unusually dry in France and
Germany. Abnormally high temperatures throughout the month of June
damaged dry, vulnerable fields in northeastern Europe.

Corn production is forecast to be 32.0 million tons this year, a
decrease of 2.5 million from last month and down 19 percent from 39.4
million in 2002. Harvested area is estimated to be 4.3 million hectares,
1 percent below last year\'s level. The yield for this year\'s crop is
estimated to be 7.37 tons per hectare, substantially lower than 9.04
tons per hectare last year, which was near average. Corn planting
conditions were generally favorable in western Europe this spring, but
the summer months have been unusually hot and dry. Most of the corn in
western Europe is irrigated, but water use restrictions were reported in
France and Italy in August, indicating that yields could be dramatically
reduced. Irrigation reserves in Spain have been adequate. There are
reports that dryland corn in France and central Italy was devastated by
poor weather. (*For more information, contact James Tringe at
202-720-0882*.)

# Australia: Favorable Rains Since July Boost 2003/04 Wheat and Barley Crops

Australia\'s 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 24.0 million tons,
up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month and up 14.6 million or 156
percent from last year's drought-reduced crop. This forecast is 3.2
million tons, or 17 percent above the 5-year average and will be the
third largest on record. This large year-to-year production increase is
the result of higher area and yield. The current 2003/04 Australia wheat
area forecast is 12.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but
up 1.17 million or 11 percent from last year. Nearly all negative
effects resulting from a delayed start earlier in the season have now
been offset by excellent growing conditions and increased yield
potential. Rainfall-to-date in nearly all growing areas has been
favorable. Many portions of the winter grain belt received normal to
above-normal rainfall amounts for the period July 1 to present. The
current yield forecast is 2.00 tons per hectare, up 0.1 tons per
hectare, or 4 percent above last month, and up 1.13 tons per hectare, or
130 percent above last year's drought-reduced crop. Western Australia is
forecast to produce a near record wheat crop this season.

Australia\'s 2003/04 barley production is forecast at 7.0 million tons,
up 0.5 million or 8 percent from last month and up 3.7 million or 114
percent from last year. This large year-to-year production increase is
the result of higher area and yield. The current forecast is 1.1 million
tons or 19 percent above the five-year average and will be the second
highest output after the 8.4 million ton record set in 2001/02. The
dryness early in eastern regions caused planting delays that are now
mostly offset by subsequent positive growing conditions. The largest
producing states of South Australia and Western Australia have
experienced excellent growing conditions throughout the season. (*For
more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135*.)

# Argentina: Lower Area Reduces 2003/04 Wheat Production 

Argentina's 2003/04 wheat production is estimated at 13.5 million tons,
down 1.0 million or 7 percent from last month. As planting is completed,
lower harvested area is estimated at 5.8 million hectares, down 0.2
million or 3 percent.

Argentina's wheat planting season runs from May to the end of August.
Precipitation in the main wheat-growing areas of southern Buenos Aires
Province has been less than normal, which led to planting delays in the
western delegations of Bahia Blanca and Pigue of Buenos Aires Province,
and in neighboring La Pampa Province. Wheat in these areas is expected
to be developmentally delayed; however, a warm and moist September will
allow a quick recovery. Wheat yields in 2003/04 are expected to be
slightly below the 5-year average, but much better than last year's
yields of 2.09 tons per hectare---the lowest in 6 years. The wheat
harvest begins in late October and typically is 50 percent complete by
mid-December. (*For more information, contact Robert Tetrault at
202-690-0130.*)

# 

# Serbia and Montenegro: Drought Drops Corn Production for 2003/04

Corn production in Serbia and Montenegro, the largest agricultural
producer of the former Yugoslavia, is estimated at 4.0 million tons,
down 20 percent or 1.0 million from last month and 1.8 million tons or
31 percent from last year's bumper crop of 5.8 million tons. Average
production is 5.1 million tons. Area increased 4 percent from last year
but remains unchanged from last month at 1.25 million hectares. Like
much of Central Europe, Serbia suffered from severe dryness since
spring, with only July experiencing average precipitation amounts. The
region of Vojvodina, located in the northern tip of Serbia, is the
country's main growing region, and it consistently saw drought
conditions, dropping corn yields. (*For more information, contact Bryan
Purcell at 202-690-0138*.)

**India: Favorable Rains Fall on 2003/04 Kharif Peanut Crop**

India\'s 2003/04 peanut production is forecast at 7.5 million tons, up
0.5 million or 7 percent from last month and up 2.3 million or 44
percent from last year. Current 2003/04 India peanut area forecast is
8.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.2 million or
18 percent from last year. The 2003 southwest monsoon arrived by
mid-June in most peanut growing areas. June through August rainfall
amounts were normal to above-normal. Rainfall and temperature patterns
have thus far created favorable growing conditions for the Kharif peanut
crop, particularly in Gujarat, which typically is the largest producing
state. The current yield forecast is 938 kilograms per hectare, up 63
kilos per hectare or 7 percent above last month, and up 174 kilos per
hectare or 23 percent above last year. (*For more information, contact
James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135*.)

# 

# Central Europe: Sunflower Production Rises in 2003/04 Despite Low Yields

Central European sunflowerseed production is estimated at 3.2 million
tons. Production in 2003/04 is up 400,000 tons (15 percent) because of a
0.5-million-hectare increase in area. Yield, however, is forecast at
1.23 tons per hectare, down from last year's 1.34 tons per hectare and a
5-year average yield of 1.27 tons per hectare. The biggest producers in
Central Europe are showing production increases. Hungary is estimated to
produce 800,000 tons this year (780,000 last year), and Serbia is
expected to harvest 350,000 (280,000). Romania's production is estimated
at 1.0 million tons (890,000), while Bulgaria's 2003/04 crop is
estimated at 680,000 (570,000). Projected area is up because poor autumn
and winter weather forced farmers to switch area into sunflower and
other summer crops. In addition, many governments have increased oilseed
subsidies to farmers in an effort to switch planting away from grain
production. Also, high world oilseed prices have been a factor
influencing producers to expand plantings.

The northern countries have a different mix of oilseed production.
Poland is exclusively a rapeseed producer (although much has been
damaged from the harsh winter), while the Czech Republic and Slovakia
are predominantly rapeseed producers but also with significant sunflower
production. In addition, Serbia and Montenegro produces a harvest of
roughly half sunflower and half soybeans. *(For more information,
contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)*

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-401), September
11, 2003.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, prepared
this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be
released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on October 10, 2003.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6053, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director Eric Wenberg 202-720-0873 wenberge@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Cotton & Rice Chairperson Ron Roberson 202-720-0879
roberson@fas.usda.gov

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

& Chile

Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

Mexico, Central America,

& Caribbean Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

Canada & Western Europe Jim Tringe 202-720-0882 tringej@fas.usda.gov

Central Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Turkey, Middle East,

& Southwest Asia Maria Anulacion 202-690-0139 anulacion@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine,

& other FSU States Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

China, Koreas, Japan, & Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

India, & Pakistan

Central & Southern Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

United States Rao Achutuni 202-690-0140 achutuni@fas.usda.gov

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.gov