Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 4/4/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** RS5023

RS5023

**Russian Federation**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Allan Mustard

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Yelena Vassilieva and Dorothy Adams

**Report Highlights:**

Total production in MY 2005 is forecast at 75.6 million metric tons
(mmt) given normal weather conditions in late spring and summer and
assuming domestic demand for feed increases. Exports will increase by
325,000 metric tons to 7.65 mmt, while imports will remain at 2.5 mmt.
Feed domestic consumption will increase slightly as more barley is fed.
Given the lower expected crop and relative price stability for farmers,
federal grain interventions will not play a significant role in 2005. No
other significant changes in domestic policies are foreseen. Any other
significant changes in domestic policies are not foreseen.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Moscow \[RS1\]

\[RS\]

Table of Contents

[**General Outlook for 2005 3**](#general-outlook-for-2005)

[Production 3](#production)

[Inputs Supply 3](#inputs-supply)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Trade 4](#trade)

[Tariffs 4](#tariffs)

[Stocks 4](#stocks)

[Policy 5](#policy)

[Marketing 5](#marketing)

[A Final Outlook for 2004 6](#a-final-outlook-for-2004)

[Planted and Harvested Area, Production, Yields
6](#planted-and-harvested-area-production-yields)

[Table 1. Total Grain Area Planted, 1996-2004, 1,000 Hectares
6](#table-1.-total-grain-area-planted-1996-2004-1000-hectares)

[Table 2. Grain Production, 1996-2004, 1,000 Metric Tons
6](#table-2.-grain-production-1996-2004-1000-metric-tons)

[Consumption, Trade, Stocks 7](#consumption-trade-stocks)

[Wheat for 2005 7](#wheat-for-2005)

[Table 3. PSD, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
7](#table-3.-psd-wheat-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 4. Import Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons
8](#table-4.-import-trade-matrix-wheat-1000-metric-tons)

[Table 5. Export Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons
9](#table-5.-export-trade-matrix-wheat-1000-metric-tons)

[Barley for 2005 10](#barley-for-2005)

[Table 6. PSD, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
10](#table-6.-psd-barley-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 7. Import Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons
11](#table-7.-import-trade-matrix-barley-1000-metric-tons)

[Table 8. Export Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons
12](#table-8.-export-trade-matrix-barley-1000-metric-tons)

[Rye for 2005 12](#rye-for-2005)

[Table 9. PSD, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
12](#table-9.-psd-rye-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Corn for 2005 13](#corn-for-2005)

[Table 10. PSD, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
13](#table-10.-psd-corn-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 11. Import Trade Matrix. Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons
14](#table-11.-import-trade-matrix.-corn-1000-metric-tons)

[Oats for 2005 14](#oats-for-2005)

[Table 12. PSD, Oats, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
14](#table-12.-psd-oats-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Rice for 2005 15](#rice-for-2005)

[Table 13. PSD, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares
15](#table-13.-psd-rice-1000-metric-tons-1000-hectares)

[Table 14. Import Trade Matrix, Rice, Milled, 1,000 Metric Tons
15](#table-14.-import-trade-matrix-rice-milled-1000-metric-tons)

[Other Grains and Legumes for 2005
16](#other-grains-and-legumes-for-2005)

# General Outlook for 2005

## Production

The Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg) forecasts the 2005 total crop at
75-80 mmt from 32.8 million hectares sown to spring grains, a slight
increase from last year, and 14 million hectares sown to winter grains,
2.6 million hectares more than last year. According to some estimates as
of the beginning of March 2005, winter grains were seriously damaged on
1.1-1.2 million hectares in the Volga Valley Federal District, less than
nine percent of the total sown area. The overall winter kill is still
estimated lower than last year, but continued cold weather and snow
could aggravate the situation decreasing winter grain yields and
delaying spring sowing in the European part of the country. Given this,
a more realistic forecast for MY 2005 is 75.6, 2.3 mmt lower than last
year.

## Inputs Supply

The financial status of grain farmers improved in 2004 due to sustained
high prices. However, input supply prices increased and most farmers
still cannot afford more efficient cultivators, tractors, harvesters,
and chemicals. So, the quality of grain farming will not improve in 2005
and production will continue to depend on weather.

Despite some improvements in the supply of farm machinery, the quality
of the existing fleet continued to deteriorate faster than new machines
can be put into use. As of February 1, 2005, the fleet of machines in
agricultural enterprises (individuals and private farmers do not report
on machinery) was: 615,000 tractors (2.5 percent more than last year),
166,000 grain harvesters (4.4 percent more than last year), 45,000 green
mass choppers (only one percent more), 183,000 plows, 211,000
cultivators, and 262,000 seeders. As of February 15, 2005, the provision
of farms with tractors was only forty-six percent of the estimated need,
seeders was 74 percent, grain harvesters was 49 percent, cultivators was
54 percent, plows was 32 percent, and green feed choppers was 62
percent. While "need" is not a true economic measure, these figures do
show that the supply of machines and equipment is not sufficient for
farmers to significantly improve agronomic practices, lengthening the
time required for planting, treating fields, and harvesting longer than
the weather requires and increasing crop losses at all stages of
cultivation.

High fuel prices are hitting farmers as they prepare for spring planting
and the treatment of winter crops. The price of gas increased by
thirty-five percent from December 2003 to December 2004 and more growth
was expected during the first few months of 2005. Diesel fuel prices
increased even sharper, sixty percent during the same time period.
According to MinAg, fuel and lubricant expenses could account for thirty
percent of the cost of production in 2005. At the beginning of the year,
agricultural enterprises had stocks of 197,000 metric tons of diesel
fuel and 74,000 metric tons of gas, or fifteen percent more than on the
same date last year. However, experts believe the fuel supply will
remain the main bottleneck in the input supply chain. MinAg estimated
farmers' demand for diesel fuel in 2005 will reach 6.6 mmt and demand
for gas will reach 2.8 mmt. The main sources for financing the purchase
of fuel will be bank loans on "soft term" (1/3 of the commercial rate)
interest rates.

Fertilizer and chemical prices also increased, but at a slower rate than
fuel. However, in 2005, the growth in these prices may accelerate due to
an increase in fertilizer exports stemming from the recent resolution of
the GOR #122 of March 10, 2005 lifting duties on exports of mineral
fertilizer containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium beginning in
mid-April, 2005. On the other hand, the area sown to grains decreased
significantly in the last decade and therefore, so did total fertilizer
use. According to MinAg's estimates, stocks of mineral fertilizer as of
March 1, 2005 in farms and agribusiness companies are the same as last
year.

The availability of "saved" planting seeds used by most farmers
increased due to last year's larger crop. Vertical integration in grain
production is not widespread and, so only some malting barley and durum
wheat farmers are supplied with improved high quality seeds by
processing companies (See GAIN RS5011).

## Consumption

Total consumption is forecast at 70.9 mmt, 300,000 metric tons more than
last year. Domestic feed consumption is forecast to increase from 33.3
mmt to 33.9 mmt, mostly due to an increase in the consumption of feed
barley. Corn feed consumption is forecast to remain at 3.2 mmt, one of
the highest levels during the last ten years.

A small, 65,000 metric ton increase in food consumption to 22.26 mmt is
forecast due to higher rye consumption. Food consumption has been
relatively stable for several years.

## Trade

Post forecasts grain exports will increase by 325,000 metric tons to
7.65 mmt due to increased exports of barley to 1.2 mmt. Large
international companies are becoming bigger players in the Russian
market and as a result, it is becoming more difficult to separate
Russian and Ukrainian exports in data. Official data on exports are
lower than actual exports owing to transparent borders among Russia,
Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Belarus. International grain prices, ocean
freight rates, and European import quotas are becoming more and more
important for determining the volume and direction of Russian exports.
However, in MY 2005, competition with domestic consumption is forecast
to increase due to higher demand from the feed industry.

Imports are forecast at 2.5 mmt, including 1.2 mmt of wheat, 400,000
metric tons of malting barley, 360,000 metric tons of rice, and 550,000
metric tons of corn.

## Tariffs

Import tariffs for all grains except rice are five percent of the
customs value. Last year's temporary (nine months) duty-free regime for
imports of corn expired on October 25, 2004, and was not extended. The
present import tariff for rice became ten percent of the customs value
when the force of the previous nine months' regime of 10 percent but not
less than 0.03 euro per 1 kg expired in January 2005. However, starting
mid-April, rice import duties will be 0.07 euro per 1 kg (See GAIN
RS5019).

Exports of grain are not subject to export duties.

## Stocks

Post forecasts total grain stocks will decrease to 7.8 mmt from an
estimated 8.25 mmt at the end of MY 2004. This level of stocks is
considered normal given the stability of exports, domestic food grain
consumption and demand from the small feed industry.

## Policy

Grain imports and exports in the beginning of 2005 were hampered by the
liquidation of the State Grain Inspection Service (SGI), which issued
quality certificates. Certificates continued to be required by Customs
at the point of entry and exist hampering trade. The problem was
temporary resolved when the Federal Customs Service (FCS) allowed the
conditional release of the commodities without the certificates (See
GAIN RS5017). The regime of "conditional release" will last until the
new legislation is developed for quality certification of exported grain
and, according to experts, it may take months. In the meantime, large
exporting companies are using quality certificates issued by
international grain certification agencies.

The GOR will soon approve the traditional scheme of seasonal (spring
sowing) support for agricultural producers. These measures will be the
same as described in last year's annual report (See GAIN RS4018), with
some small changes in the funding level for soft-term loans and
compensation of cash shortfalls connected with seasonal financial
support. However, agricultural policy in Russia has not changed and the
overall agricultural policy law has not been adopted as was planned last
year.

## Marketing

The share of grain sold commercially continues to increase, although
official data is not available. According to experts, grain remains one
of the few products that brings returns to farmers, unlike livestock,
and farmers have been increasing the amount of grain they sell, instead
of feeding it.

# A Final Outlook for 2004

## Planted and Harvested Area, Production, Yields

Total output in MY 2004 reached nearly 78 mmt, a sixteen percent
increase from 2003 because of larger winter wheat and corn crops. Gains
in production were achieved mostly because of higher yields, while the
sown area was the second lowest since the end of 1950s.

## Table 1. Total Grain Area Planted, 1996-2004, 1,000 Hectares

  ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
                1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004
                                                                                (prelim)

  Wheat, total  25721   26056   26101   23022   23204   23765   25662   22130   23978

  \- winter     9321    8944    8246    7609    7926    8525    10113   7356    NA

  \- spring     16400   17112   17855   15413   15278   15240   15549   14774   NA

  Barley, total 11853   12517   11285   9855    9237    10127   10279   10110   9954

  \- winter     460     490     345     419     533     648     677     460     NA

  \- spring     11393   12027   10938   9436    8644    9479    9602    9650    NA

  Rye           4129    4005    3777    3393    3559    3634    3804    2349    1893

  Oats (spring) 6929    6438    5229    5336    4581    4869    4269    3722    3561

  Corn for      954     918     787     704     813     684     625     719     899
  grain                                                                         

  Rice          173     151     146     173     175     154     149     155     131

  Millet        1228    1086    975     1610    1588    1214    581     830     1028

  Buckwheat     1369    1112    1226    1339    1577    1594    837     735     939

  Legumes       1430    1340    1185    1098    922     1076    1214    1273    1223

  Other         919     11      0       24      -20     103     604     31      30

  Total         54705   53634   50711   46554   45636   47220   47474   42054   43636
  ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ----------

Source: Goskomstat, "SovEcon"

## Table 2. Grain Production, 1996-2004, 1,000 Metric Tons

  ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
                1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004
                                                                                (prelim)

  Wheat, total  34917   44258   26908   30961   34455   46871   50609   34062   45306

  \- winter     16680   20550   13255   16178   17178   24400   29751   14665   25908

  \- spring     18237   23758   13653   14817   17277   22471   20858   19397   19398

  Barley, total 15900   20786   9780    10604   14079   19466   18738   17968   17200

  \- winter     1300    1286    900     1446    1767    2300    2554    1193    1998

  \- spring     14600   19500   8880    9156    12312   17166   16184   16775   15202

  Rye (winter)  5934    7478    3270    4781    5445    6613    7139    4151    2869

  Oats (spring) 8300    9387    4583    4395    6008    7723    5694    5175    4948

  Corn for      1087    2675    820     1067    1530    831     1541    2113    3458
  grain                                                                         

  Rice          389     328     413     444     586     497     483     450     465

  Millet        446     1219    451     924     1123    548     292     975     1122

  Buckwheat     485     630     464     578     998     570     304     525     650

  Legumes       1793    1780    954     881     1199    1802    1764    1649    1874

  Other         89      12      127     71      83      262     48      33      44

  Total         69340   88553   47770   54706   65506   85183   86612   67101   77936
  ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ----------

Source: Goskomstat, "SovEcon"

## Consumption, Trade, Stocks

Domestic consumption in MY 2004 is estimated at 70.6 mmt, including
33.25 mmt of feed consumption and 22.2 of food consumption. Exports are
estimated at over 7.3 mmt, including 6.5 mmt of wheat, while imports are
estimated at 2.46 mmt. End of the year stocks are estimated at 8.2 mmt.

# Wheat for 2005

## Table 3. PSD, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Wheat**                                       (1000      
                                                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                07/2003               07/2004               07/2005

  Area Harvested        22150          22150      24000      24200      0          23500

  Beginning Stocks      6133           6133       2645       2645       5445       4845

  Production            34100          34100      45300      45300      0          42300

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        1026           1026       1500       1200       0          1200
  Imports                                                                          

  Jul-Jun Imports       1026           1026       1500       1200       0          1200

  Jul-Jun Import U.S.   14             14         0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          41259          41259      49445      49145      5445       48345

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        3114           3114       6000       6500       0          6300
  Exports                                                                          

  Jul-Jun Exports       3114           3114       6000       6500       0          6300

  Feed Dom. Consumption 12500          12500      14000      13800      0          13850

  TOTAL Dom.            35500          35500      38000      37800      0          37900
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         2645           2645       5445       4845       0          4145

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    41259          41259      49445      49145      0          48345
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

## Table 4. Import Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| ####                   |             |                |             |
| ## Import Trade Matrix |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Country**            | Russian     |                |             |
|                        | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Wheat       |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | July-June   | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Imports for:           | 2003        |                | **2004**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   | 24          | U.S.           | 15          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan             | 972         | Kazakhstan     | 1050        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Lithuania              | 34          | Lithuania      | 15          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Germany                | 23          |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 1029        |                | 1065        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 21          |                | 120         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 1074        |                | 1200        |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

According to trade sources, in MY 2003 Russia imported 970,000 metric
tons of wheat and 105,000 metric tons of wheat in grain equivalent, for
a total of 1.07 mmt, or 48,000 metric tons more than the WTA data in the
PSD table. The difference in the data is due to the transparency of
Russian boarders with other CIS countries and re-exports.

In July 2004 through January 2005, Russia imported almost 910,000 metric
tons of wheat and flour (in grain equivalent), including 837,000 metric
tons of wheat and 30,700 metric tons of wheat flour from Kazakhstan. The
domestic price of wheat and flour decreased because of the larger crop
and significant imports are not forecast for the rest of MY 2004. The
import estimate is lowered to 1.2 million metric tons.

## Table 5. Export Trade Matrix, Wheat, 1,000 Metric Tons

  ------------------------- ------------- ----------------- --------------
  **Export Trade Matrix**                                   

  **Country**               Russian                         
                            Federation                      

  **Commodity**             Wheat                           

  Time Period               July-June     Units:            1,000 MT

  Exports for:              2003                            **2004**

  U.S.                      0             U.S.              0

  Others                                  Others            

  Ukraine                   1150          Egypt             1350

  Romania                   550           Azerbaijan        730

  Georgia                   393           Georgia           450

  Country Unknown           385           Israel            410

  Egypt                     220           Italy             300

  Israel                    165           Morocco           295

  Greece                    152           Greece            265

  Albania                   142           Tunisia           260

  Moldova                   136           Lebanon           235

  Italy                     129           Algeria           215

  Total for Others          3422                            4510

  Others not Listed         588                             1990

  Grand Total               4010                            6500
  ------------------------- ------------- ----------------- --------------

Despite a slight decrease in exports in February 2005 due to the
liquidation of the SGI, total wheat exports in MY 2004 are estimated at
6.5 mmt.

Table 5 includes exports of 3.75 mmt of wheat grain in MY 2003 and
263,000 metric tons of wheat flour in grain equivalent. This data is
derived from trade sources and does not coincide with the official
Customs data given in the WTA and in the PSD table due to larger than
officially reported exports of Russian grain through transparent borders
with the Ukraine, and some re-exports of Kazak grain through Russia. The
difference is 896,000 metric tons, including 383,000 metric tons of
officially non-reported exports to unknown countries, 229,000 metric
tons of exports to Ukraine, 117,000 metric tons of exports to Romania,
and 94,000 metric tons of officially non-reported exports to Georgia.

# Barley for 2005

## Table 6. PSD, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Barley**                                      (1000      
                                                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                07/2003               07/2004               07/2005

  Area Harvested        10100          10500      9450       10000      0          10100

  Beginning Stocks      4706           4706       2227       2227       2327       2327

  Production            18000          18000      17200      17200      0          17600

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        439            439        400        400        0          400
  Imports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Imports       475            475        400        400        0          400

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.   0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          23145          23145      19827      19827      2327       20327

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        2318           2318       1000       800        0          1200
  Exports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Exports       1736           1736       1000       800        0          1200

  Feed Dom. Consumption 13700          13700      11700      11900      0          12250

  TOTAL Dom.            18600          18600      16500      16700      0          17000
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         2227           2227       2327       2327       0          2127

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    23145          23145      19827      19827      0          20327
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Imports of barley will remain at 400,000 metric tons. In July -- January
2005, Russia already imported 189,000 metric tons of barley, three times
more than in the same period last year. However, imports of barley are
not expected to exceed last year's level, because domestic demand for
malting barley is being met by the same stable quantity, while demand
for feed barley is met by domestic grain that was not exported.

## Table 7. Import Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade         |             |                |             |
| Matrix**               |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| ######                 | Russian     |                |             |
| # Country {#country-1} | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Barley      |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | July-June   | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Imports for:           | 2003        |                | **2004**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   |             | U.S.           |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Denmark                | 209         | Denmark        | 165         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan             | 145         | Kazakhstan     | 85          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| France                 | 48          | France         | 35          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Sweden                 | 26          | Sweden         | 25          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| European Union         | 5           | Ukraine        | 20          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Finland                | 2           | Lithuania      | 2           |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 435         |                | 332         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 4           |                | 68          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 439         |                | 400         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

The barley trade matrix is based on experts' data from analytical
sources. In MY 2003, exports to unknown countries were in second place
after exports to Saudi Arabia, to bring total exports to 3.08 mmt,
almost 760,000 metric tons more than the official data. The MY 2004
export forecast is lowered to 800,000 metric tons. By the beginning of
February 2005, Russia's actual exports were 546,000 metric tons, four
times less than in the same period last year, including exports to Saudi
Arabia of only 158,000 metric tons, almost six times less than in the
same period last year.

## Table 8. Export Trade Matrix, Barley, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| **Export Trade         |              |              |             |
| Matrix**               |              |              |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| ######                 | Russian      |              |             |
| # Country {#country-2} | Federation   |              |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Barley       |              |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | July-June    | Units:       | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Exports for:           | 2003         |              | **2004**    |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   |              | U.S.         |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Others                 |              | Others       |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Saudi Arabia           | 1202         | Saudi Arabia | 300         |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Country Unknown        | 664          | Israel       | 200         |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Israel                 | 356          | Iran         | 65          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Libya                  | 197          | Libya        | 60          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Cyprus                 | 169          | Italy        | 30          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Italy                  | 93           | Lebanon      | 25          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Ukraine                | 81           | Jordan       | 20          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Greece                 | 79           | Greece       | 15          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Lebanon                | 40           | Azerbaijan   | 15          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Romania                | 35           |              |             |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 2916         |              | 730         |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 163          |              | 70          |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 3079         |              | 800         |
+------------------------+--------------+--------------+-------------+

# Rye for 2005

## Table 9. PSD, Rye, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Rye**                                         (1000      
                                                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                07/2003               07/2004               07/2005

  Area Harvested        2350           2350       1900       2000       0          2300

  Beginning Stocks      1805           1805       355        355        105        105

  Production            4200           4200       2850       2870       0          3600

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        6              6          200        180        0          0
  Imports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Imports       6              6          200        180        0          0

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.   0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          6011           6011       3405       3405       105        3705

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        156            156        0          0          0          100
  Exports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Exports       31             31         5          5          0          0

  Feed Dom. Consumption 1100           1100       300        300        0          300

  TOTAL Dom.            5500           5500       3300       3300       0          3400
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         355            355        105        105        0          205

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    6011           6011       3405       3405       0          3705
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

In MY 2003, Russia exported 156,000 metric tons of rye. The bulk was
exported to Ukraine, which suffered from severe drought, and the rest
went to Spain, Israel, Italy, Turkey, and ten other countries. In MY
2004, Russia became a net importer of rye from Germany and Ukraine. Most
of this rye (140,000 metric tons) was imported in October and November
2004, shortly after the low domestic rye crop became evident. Rye
imports discontinued in December-January, but imports of another 40,000
metric tons are possible in the spring due to a decrease in rye prices
in foreign markets.

# Corn for 2005

## Table 10. PSD, Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Corn**                                        (1000      
                                                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Harvested        700            700        900        900        0          950

  Beginning Stocks      113            113        159        159        359        209

  Production            2100           2100       3450       3450       0          3200

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        496            496        400        350        0          550
  Imports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Imports       496            496        400        350        0          550

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.   60             60         0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          2709           2709       4009       3959       359        3959

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Exports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Exports       0              0          0          0          0          0

  Feed Dom. Consumption 2150           2150       3100       3200       0          3200

  TOTAL Dom.            2550           2550       3650       3750       0          3750
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         159            159        359        209        0          209

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    2709           2709       4009       3959       0          3959
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Increased domestic corn production led to lower imports from Ukraine and
imports from other countries are hampered by unclear phytosanitary
rules. The liquidation of commissions that registered GMO feeds also
curtailed registration of new feed and corn lines. However, increased
demand for feeding poultry, dairy cows and pigs will increase demand for
imported corn in MY 2005, while domestic production may decrease due to
natural weather fluctuations despite planned increases.

## Table 11. Import Trade Matrix. Corn, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| ####                   |             |                |             |
| ## Import Trade Matrix |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Country**            | Russian     |                |             |
|                        | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Corn        |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | Oct-Sept.   | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Imports for:           | 2003        |                | **2004**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   | 53          | U.S.           | 50          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Ukraine                | 410         | Ukraine        | 250         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan             | 12          | Kazakhstan     | 10          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| China                  | 10          |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Brazil                 | 3           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Yugoslavia             | 2           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Hungary                | 2           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Moldova                | 1           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
|                        |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 440         |                | 260         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 3           |                | 40          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 496         |                | 350         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

# Oats for 2005

## Table 12. PSD, Oats, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Oats**                                        (1000      
                                                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                07/2003               07/2004               07/2005

  Area Harvested        3700           3700       3550       3550       0          3600

  Beginning Stocks      580            580        189        189        239        239

  Production            5200           5200       4950       4950       0          4900

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        9              9          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Imports       9              9          0          0          0          0

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.   0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          5789           5789       5139       5139       239        5139

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Exports                                                                          

  Oct-Sep Exports       0              0          0          0          0          0

  Feed Dom. Consumption 3900           3900       3300       3300       0          3400

  TOTAL Dom.            5600           5600       4900       4900       0          4900
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         189            189        239        239        0          239

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    5789           5789       5139       5139       0          5139
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Rice for 2005

## Table 13. PSD, Rice, 1,000 Metric Tons, 1,000 Hectares

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**           **Russian                                                  
                        Federation**                                               

  **Commodity**         **Rice,                                         (1000      
                        Milled**                                        HA)(1000   
                                                                        MT)        

                        2003           Revised    2004       Estimate   2005       Forecast

                        USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                        \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                       \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                01/2004               01/2005               01/2006

  Area Harvested        155            155        130        130        0          150

  Beginning Stocks      308            308        191        191        111        103

  Milled Production     293            293        300        302        0          320

  Rough Production      451            451        462        465        0          492

  MILLING RATE (.9999)  6500           6500       6500       6500       0          6500

  TOTAL Imports         350            350        350        330        0          360

  Jan-Dec Imports       350            350        350        330        0          360

  Jan-Dec Import U.S.   0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          951            951        841        823        111        783

  TOTAL Exports         45             45         10         10         0          0

  Jan-Dec Exports       45             45         10         10         0          0

  TOTAL Dom.            715            715        720        710        0          690
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         191            191        111        103        0          93

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    951            951        841        823        0          783
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

## Table 14. Import Trade Matrix, Rice, Milled, 1,000 Metric Tons

+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| ####                   |             |                |             |
| ## Import Trade Matrix |             |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Country**            | Russian     |                |             |
|                        | Federation  |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**          | Rice,       |                |             |
|                        | Milled      |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Time Period            | Jan-Dec     | Units:         | 1,000 MT    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Imports for:           | 2004        |                | **2005**    |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| U.S.                   | 2           | U.S.           | 3           |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others                 |             | Others         |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| China                  | 130         | China          | 100         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Vietnam                | 108         | Vietnam        | 70          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Thailand               | 106         | Kazakhstan     | 65          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Kazakhstan             | 66          | Thailand       | 60          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Egypt                  | 23          | Egypt          | 20          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Pakistan               | 7           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| India                  | 7           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Belgium                | 5           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Uzbekistan             | 2           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Spain                  | 1           |                |             |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Total for Others       | 455         |                | 315         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed      | 10          |                | 12          |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+
| Grand Total            | 467         |                | 330         |
+------------------------+-------------+----------------+-------------+

Actual imports of milled rice in CY 2004 were 467,000 metric tons. WTA
data on imports of rice in January -- November 2004 is 420,000 metric
tons, and sources report that in December 2004 Russia imported another
47,000 metric tons. Imports in January 2005 nearly reached 55,000 metric
tons. Hectic imports in December -- January were stimulated by the
threat of a tariff increase. Tariffs will be raised starting in
mid-April (Gain Report RS5019), and the CY 2004 rice import estimate is
lowered to 330,000 metric tons. However, a significant increase in
domestic rice production is not possible in the short run, and the
current import duty will likely not be extended. The import forecast for
2005 is raised to 360,000 metric tons to keep consumption at stable
level.

## Other Grains and Legumes for 2005

Post forecasts production of other grains and legumes (mostly millet,
buckwheat and legumes) at 3.7 mmt an average crop. Trade will not be
significant, half of production will be consumed as food, and 850,000
metric tons will be used as feed.