NATIONAL ADVANCED FIRE AND RESOURCE INSTITUTE

**INSTRUCTOR:** Ross Wilmore

**LESSON:** 10 -- Fire Behavior Forecasts

**UNIT:** IV -- Application

**COURSE:** S-590 -- Advanced Fire Behavior Interpretation

**OBJECTIVES:**

Upon completion of this lesson, the participant will be able to:

1.  Describe ways fire behavior forecasts are used.

2.  Describe the types of fire behavior forecasts.

3.  Describe the sections of each type of forecast.

4.  Identify the key points of the fire weather forecast to include in
    fire behavior forecasts.

5.  Identify conditions that warrant updating a fire behavior forecast
    during an operational period.

6.  Demonstrate completion of fire behavior forecasts and long-term risk
    assessments.

7.  Write clear, concise operational fire behavior forecasts that are
    free of strategy and tactics using a standard format and guidelines.

**NARRATIVE:**

## INTRODUCTION

The primary task of the FBAN and LTAN is threefold:

1.  the analyst predicts how weather, fuels, and topography will combine
    to produce fire behavior,

2.  the analyst interprets how that fire behavior will impact potential
    fire management activities for a given incident with a focus on
    safety, and

3.  the analyst communicates the interpretation to the incident
    management team.

The fire behavior forecast is the primary vehicle through which the
communication occurs. Though the FBAN/LTAN gives briefings in a number
of different settings and formats, the information presented is based
upon the forecast product. The forecast provides the focal point for
fire behavior analysis and interpretation as well as the format for
delivery.

Because so many people on or around an incident need fire behavior
information, a one-size-fits-all approach to forecasting doesn't work.
Line officers, resource managers, government liaisons, the media, and
others will need access to forecast information, not just incident
management personnel. It is therefore of paramount importance that you
understand the forecast product required at any given time, as well as
your audience, when you begin its preparation. We will teach you the
various forecast types in this course, show you how to prepare them, and
give you opportunities to practice with graded exercises throughout the
course. Your forecast preparation skills will also be evaluated on the
final exam.

**II. WHY ARE FORECASTS SO IMPORTANT?**

The reason fire behavior analysts were added to incident management
teams was to improve the safety of incident operations. As FBANs and
LTANs gain experience and improve their skills, they will find their
teams relying on them to answer a greater number of questions of a more
diverse nature. Because no two fires, or IMTs for that matter, are
alike, fire behavior forecasts must be tailored to meet the demands of
the situation at hand. Here are just a few ways in which your forecasts
will be used:

A. **The development of situational awareness:** The FBAN/LTAN must have
the ability to quickly and accurately synthesize the factors affecting
the fire at a time when information about the fire may be at its
sketchiest. The best fire behavior analysts can help their IMTs quickly
gain situational awareness with a good forecast delivered right after
the team arrives on the incident. It is crucial to understand that the
FBAN/LTAN's job starts as soon as they hit the road, not when they
arrive at the fire. This course is devoted to the acquisition and honing
of those skills.

The fire behavior forecast is also used to provide fireline personnel
with situational awareness prior to them leaving camp. The forecast
describes the fire environment they will be entering, the fire behavior
to expect, how that fire behavior will impact their operations, and
safety issues to watch for. This is the most common usage of the
forecast, and arguably the most important.

B. **The validation of incident management objectives:** Incident
objectives may have been developed prior to the team's arrival, or the
team may participate in their development as part of a Wildland Fire
Implementation Plan (WFIP) or Long Term Action Plan. The fire behavior
forecast is commonly used to help determine whether the objectives
remain valid throughout the life of the incident.

C.  **The development of safe strategy and tactics:** The accurate
    interpretation of fire behavior is vital to strategic and tactical
    planning. FBANs/LTANs use their forecasts as a primary source of
    information when evaluating whether planned operations will be safe
    and effective. FBANs/LTANs can identify safety problems in their
    forecasts and recommend mitigation measures. The more credible the
    FBAN/LTAN is with the ops staff, the earlier and more often the ops
    staff will consult with them.

D.  **The development of logistics plans:** FBANs/LTANs sometimes find
    themselves in the position where a timely transfer of forecast
    information can have profound effects on incident logistics. Fire
    movement or inclement weather can threaten spike or base camp
    locations or impact the timing of camp set-up. Smoke events can
    impact fire personnel in camp depending on camp location. The
    movement of supplies and equipment by air can be affected by
    inversions or afternoon thunderstorms. FBANs or LTANs who work with
    their incident or forecast office meteorologists and predict when
    the fire environment will interfere with logistical management of an
    incident are worth their weight in gold.

E.  **Monitoring how the day is going:** FBAN/LTANs use their forecasts
    as baselines to monitor whether the factors contributing to fire
    behavior remain as predicted during the operational period(s). If
    conditions change over the course of a day or even a week, the
    FBAN/LTAN can compare the changes to the assumptions they made
    during forecast preparation and determine how actual fire behavior
    will depart from their prediction. New model runs and a new forecast
    can more quickly be generated if the analyst knows exactly which
    assumptions have become invalid. We will discuss how to change a
    forecast later in this lesson.

    **III. FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST TYPES**

Because fire behavior forecasts are used in many different ways, it
important that you not get locked into a 'cookbook' approach to their
preparation. You must prepare the forecast that fits the given
situation. Having said that, the following three forecast types are the
most commonly requested in the field and will be taught as the standard
in this course. The components of each forecast type will be described
in Part V.

A.  Operational Fire Behavior Forecasts.

The Operational Fire Behavior Forecast is the most commonly prepared of
the three types. **This forecast is commonly referred to simply as the
"Fire Behavior Forecast'**; it is prepared for each operational period
(two maximum) and is oriented to tactical operations on the fireline. It
tells IMT members and fireline personnel what type of fire behavior
should be expected for that operational period. Perhaps more
importantly, it addresses where, when, and how fire behavior will affect
their safety, work assignments, and resource or management objectives.
Just describing fire behavior isn't enough here: it's the interpretation
that matters most.

Operational Fire Behavior Forecasts are usually written by FBANs, but
LTANs can prepare them as well. They are included in the Incident Action
Plan (IAP).

Of the three forecast types, this is the only one with a strict,
standard format. The format is displayed as Handout (HO) -1 and -1a.
This form is located on your course CD; you will be expected to use it
when preparing this type of forecast in class and in the field.

To successfully develop an Operational Fire Behavior Forecast, you must
know the types of resources that will be on the firelines, where they
will be located, and what their assignments will be. You must know what
type of fuels and topography they are working in and what the weather is
predicted to be. With this understanding of the fire environment, you
can describe how the expected fire behavior will affect the fireline
personnel and what they should be watching for.

B.  Extended Fire Behavior Forecasts

The Extended Fire Behavior Forecast is commonly written by an FBAN when
an IMT is turning a fire back to the local unit. It typically covers
three to seven days and retains a tactical focus; it is used by IMT3s or
other local fire personnel who will not have regular access to FBAN
support. Its operational nature also makes it appropriate for wildland
fire use (WFU) incidents where a longer term forecast is desired that is
geared towards WFU operational activities.

The Extended Fire Behavior Forecast has no strict format, but many FBANs
have found that modifying the Operational Fire Behavior Forecast form is
effective. Two different formats are presented in this class as HOs-2,
-2a, and -2b. The format or organization you use will vary somewhat by
the situation, but you won't go wrong if you present the information as
structured in the handouts.

C.  Long Term Fire Behavior Assessments

Long Term Fire Behavior Assessments are usually prepared by LTANs as
part of Stage III WFIPs or Long Term Action Plans. These assessments are
strategic in nature and may cover several weeks. This type of forecast
does not have a strict format, but they are usually written as narrative
documents, not as the more strictly formatted operational and extended
fire behavior forecasts. Their contents are described in the *Wildland
Fire Use Implementation Procedures Reference Guide (rev. 2006)*, pp
31-34, included in your course CD.

Long Term Fire Behavior Assessments normally include discussions of the
following topics:

-   Weather conditions and drought prognosis

-   Fuels and expected fire behavior

-   Long-term risk assessment.

These assessments usually rely upon RERAP/FSPro and Farsite outputs to
support their conclusions. Their conclusions include the probabilities
for successful WFU/AMR outcomes, recommendations for management action
points (triggerpoints), and the fire behavior that would impact those
points.

D.  Seasonal Fire Behavior Assessments

A fourth type of forecast, the Seasonal Fire Behavior Assessment, is
produced by the Predictive Services units located at the Geographic Area
Coordination Centers. These products include weekly, monthly, and
seasonal fire weather and fire danger outlooks and are collaboratively
produced by FBANs, LTANs, and meteorologists. These products can be
produced at the state, regional, or national levels; we will not be
delving into these during this course.

**IV. HOW TO WRITE A FORECAST**

> It is not our intent to teach you how to write in this section; by now
> we're all pretty much stuck with whatever skill you've brought to the
> course. Not to worry if you don't have great confidence, however;
> forecasts are highly technical documents that require a very
> straight-forward writing style.
>
> First and most importantly: **answer the question that's being
> asked!** If the IMT wants your fire behavior prediction for tomorrow's
> operational period, write an Operational Fire Behavior Forecast. If
> they want to know whether the fire will reach a certain management
> action point prior to a fire-slowing or season-ending event, then
> they're looking for a Long Term Fire Behavior Assessment. What's the
> fire going to do once the IMT gives it to a local IMT3? An Extended
> Fire Behavior Forecast will likely fill the bill. If you aren't sure,
> though, be sure to clarify what the team wants before you waste time
> generating the wrong product.
>
> Second, **generate the best product you can within the allotted
> time**. You will feel squeezed for time during the course exercises,
> but wait until you have to generate a forecast between the IMT
> in-briefing and the first planning meeting. Though this real-life
> forecast might just be notes you've prepared for the briefing, it is a
> forecast nonetheless, one you will write up later (and pretty quickly,
> most likely) for the Incident Action Plan (IAP). It must be as
> complete and accurate as you can make it, because the time the IMT
> needs the most information about the fire is the time that you have
> the least!
>
> Remember that it is not enough to just list what you expect the fire
> behavior to be for the desired time period. **You must interpret what
> it will mean to the management of the fire, especially to the people
> on the ground!**

And never forget: Relate your forecast to assigned work. Discuss how
weather and fire behavior might be used to the firefighter's advantage.
**Do not recommend tactics and stated management objectives in the
forecast.** Your input into tactics and operational work for the period
was done previously in a planning session. Now, given the decisions
reached during that session, provide all the support you can to the
fireline resources.

> Writing Tips:

-   Keep things simple; don't use a lot of technical language. It is
    important to understand who your audience is.

-   In the same vein, keep it relevant. Firefighters don't care about
    Heat/Area or Fireline Intensity. They will want to know ROS, Flame
    length, spotting distance, and P(ig).

-   Be understandable. Keep your statements short and straightforward.

-   Be brief, and get to the point quickly. People are often rushed and
    will not look at details. One page is often better than three, if
    the one page gets read. In the case of the Operational Fire Behavior
    Forecast, one page is all you'll get.

-   Interpret for meaning. Describe how fire behavior will impact the
    firefighter's operational plan.

-   Be specific about what, where, when, and how fire behavior will
    occur.

-   Use positive action words like "will", "expect", "shall".

-   Make it neat and legible.

-   Relate specifics to the operational plan

-   Be precise; say exactly what is going to happen. Avoid words like
    "erratic" that do not really mean anything. If rates of spread will
    vary greatly through the day or within the time frames of the
    project, say so and relate it to the mechanism(s) that will cause
    the variations.

    See HO-9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and16 for examples. Critique
    forecasts you have seen on past fires.

    **V. THE SECTIONS OF THE VARIOUS FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST TYPES**

A.  Operational Fire Behavior Forecast Components (HO1a-10-S590)

    1.  Heading:

    -   [Forecast Number]{.underline} - Sequential to the project.

    -   [Fire Name]{.underline} - As classified by the management unit.

    -   [Date and time issued]{.underline} - When forecast was produced.

    -   [Predicted for]{.underline} - What operational period, day,
        night, or other.

    -   [Operational period date]{.underline} - Date the forecast
        covers.

    -   [Signature]{.underline} - Signed by the Fire Behavior Analyst.
        Also print name.

        1.  Weather Summary:

Write a brief narrative of the weather discussion for the entire fire
area derived from the fire weather forecast. Describe the following:

-   Special weather events and duration, **highlighted**, such as
    frontal passages or dry lightning outbreaks.

-   Sky/Weather

-   Max temps, min relative humidifies

-   Winds: eye level speed and direction

-   Lightning Activity Level (LAL), stability (inversions, Haines Index)

-   Trends: how today compares with the last few days.

Be sure to describe the times and places on the fire where given weather
will occur. Pay particular attention to 1000 ft elevation differences,
wide aspect variations, or topographical features such as ridge tops and
valley bottoms.

You should attach the Fire Weather Forecast for the operational period
if at all possible. If you don't have an incident weather forecast
generated by an IMET, attach a spot weather forecast. If you can't get a
spot weather forecast for the operational period, attach either the
morning or afternoon planning forecast (as appropriate) issued by the
local National Weather Service fire weather forecast office. See HO-4,
5, 5a, 6, and 7 for fire weather forecast examples and formats.

Whatever your situation, remember that **Fire Behavior Analysts do not
make weather forecasts**. You may have to resort to working with less
than the optimum weather forecast, but do not take it upon yourself to
predict the weather.

1.  General Fire Behavior:

> Provide a brief narrative for the entire fire area with the expected
> activity and/or growth projections for the current operational period.
> Depending on the need, you can project out to two days, maximum. Touch
> on the following topics:

-   Expected fire behavior outputs and spread predictions for the entire
    fire area by fuel type or species, not fuel model (not everybody
    knows them).

-   Address the potential impacts on holding and suppression actions

-   Describe windows of opportunity for burn-out, holding and
    suppression

-   Address spotting, crowning, and torching potential, along with
    probability of ignition.

-   Provide recommendations for mop-up and monitoring

-   You can provide an ERC or BI, but be sure to list the percentile.
    Always interpret!

    1.  Specific Fire Behavior:

        This portion should be specific and related to location, time
        and/or fuels found in and around the fire. This section is
        usually grouped by divisions.

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-   Address each division, geographic area or fuel type

    -   What will happen?

    -   When it will happen?

    -   Where it will happen?

-   Contrast projections against management objectives (Strategy
    implications vs. time)

-   Effects on tactical operations:

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-   Rate of Spread: time it will take to spread to ridges or holding
    line, etc.

-   Flame Length: use the hauling chart as a measure of the ability to
    hold line or work near the fire's edge.

-   Geographically specific potential for crowning and firewhirl
    development and the resultant effect on holding actions

-   How changes in slope, aspect, or other affects of topography will
    affect fire behavior and operations.

-   Describe when aerial resource use might be most effective.

    1.  Air Operations:

        Discuss all fire environment-related factors that will affect
        air operations. Briefly describe inversion, smoke, strong winds,
        turbulence, wind direction shifts, visibility, etc.

    2.  Safety:

        Fire environment and behavior-related safety items that need
        special emphasis:

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-   Fire runs, snags, ash pits, ability for direct attack, etc.

-   Discuss fire behavior as it pertains to:

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-   10 Standard Fire Orders

-   Watch Out Situations

-   LCES

-   Common Denominators

If appropriate:

-   Public safety - the public neighboring the burn site, media, and
    visitors.

-   External safety - private property, agency controlled property,
    down-range smoke impacts, and other off-site concerns.

> B. Components of the Extended Fire Behavior Forecast (HO2a,
> 2b-10-S590)

Many of the components of the extended forecast are the same as those in
the Operational Fire Behavior Forecast. The header, air operations, and
safety sections can be handled in virtually the same fashion. The
differences follow:

-   Weather Summary: The weather section is handled in a similar fashion
    as the operational forecast; the primary difference is in the length
    of the outlook. If your Extended Fire Behavior Forecast is intended
    to cover the next seven days, for example, then the accompanying
    weather forecast should cover the same period. You should cover the
    topics as described above for the entire extended period.

-   Fire Behavior: The General and Specific sections found in the
    operational forecast can be combined in the Extended Fire Behavior
    Forecast. This section is typically organized either by division (as
    described in the Operational Fire Behavior Forecast section), or by
    time period. If organizing by time period, use the following
    outline:

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-   Short Range: Expected fire behavior and growth for the entire fire
    area for the next 2 days. This is similar to writing an operational
    forecast.

-   Mid Range: Expected fire behavior and growth for the fire area for
    the next 3 to7 days.

-   Long Range: Expected fire behavior and growth next 8+ days for the
    fire area. Writing for this time period has some inherent
    challenges:

    -   If the fire is still active, this forecast can be problematic to
        write without RERAP/FSPro/Farsite support

    -   If this is a desired product, perhaps a Long Term Fire Behavior
        Assessment is more appropriate. You should clarify with your
        Plans chief exactly what the IMT's or local unit's expectation
        is.

> C. Components of the Long Term Fire Behavior Assessment (HO8-11-S590)
>
> Weather and Drought Prognosis

-   Historical weather trends and patterns

-   Current season severity and comparison with other significant years

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-   Drought Monitor, ERC trends, Greenness, other representations

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-   Precipitation climatology

-   Local climatology for windspeed and direction

-   Short-, medium-, and long-range weather forecasts & outlooks

-   Drought prognosis and expected departure from normal conditions

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-   Drought outlook

-   Adjusted climatological probabilities

> Fuels and Fire Behavior

-   Fuels classifications, adjustments, and calibrations

-   Normal and expected fuel moisture conditions

-   Analysis of fire history, both in general for the area, and this
    incident specifically

-   Short- to mid-range (1-14 days) fire behavior and growth calibration
    and projections (Farsite), may include discussion of burn severity

-   Potential total area the fire may burn

-   Thresholds and indicators of potential rapid escalation in fire
    behavior and fire growth

> Long-term risk assessment

-   Long-term projection based upon probabilities, supported by RERAP or
    FSPro analysis

-   Probabilities and timing of

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-   A large-growth weather event

-   Fire-slowing or stopping event

-   Season-ending event

-   The fire reaching an identified management action point or MMA
    boundary,

-   Adverse smoke events

> Conclusion:

-   Probability of a WFU/AMR successful outcome

-   Recommendations for management action point (triggerpoint)
    locations, where managers must make key decisions that may not be
    reversible.

-   Management action recommendations at identified management action
    points

> When writing this assessment, it is important to discuss the tools
> used and the assumptions that were made, as well as what the tools
> showed you. Sometimes you will have to decide which tool is the most
> appropriate.

The smoke component is an issue that you may be asked to discuss in the
assessment. Consider addressing items such as transport winds, mixing
heights, visibility, and dispersion indices which can be obtained from
local meteorologists. Some states have smoke management program
meteorologists who produce daily smoke forecasts.

**VI. CHANGES AND UPDATES TO FORECASTS**

Occasionally, it is necessary to update or otherwise change a forecast
because you have received new information that invalidates your earlier
assumptions.

A.  The following are examples of situations that may prompt an update:

    1.  Changes in the fire weather forecast that would change fire
        behavior, thus affecting safety, operations, or attainment of
        management objectives.

    2.  Information from the fireline indicating observed fire behavior
        is significantly different from the predicted. You must
        determine how well your forecast fits what is actually happening
        and, if there are significant differences, find out what is
        causing them and adjust your forecast.

    3.  Changes in fireline operations or objectives which cause the
        original basis for the forecast to change (i.e., slopovers, spot
        fires, line location changes, impromptu burnouts or backfiring
        operations, etc.).

B.  Forecast updates must be done in a timely manner. Those who are
    affected must be informed as quickly as possible. The following are
    examples of the update process:

    1.  Obtain the latest weather forecast and intelligence from the
        fireline.

    2.  Revise calculations and the Fire Behavior Forecast.

    3.  Notify the Incident Commander and/or the Line Officer, Planning
        Section Chief, Operations Section Chief, Safety Officer and
        others of the changes.

    4.  Make sure the new information gets to the fireline and others
        affected.

    5.  File the update in your fire behavior documentation package.

        **SUMMARY:**

The Fire Behavior Forecast is one of the most important Fire Behavior
Analyst products. It integrates the fire weather forecast, management
objectives, and other fire intelligence to provide fireline personnel,
incident managers and other stakeholders with assessments of how fire
behavior will affect incident safety, attainment of fire management
objectives, and work assignments. The type of forecast you write depends
upon the IMT's need at any given time, but it must always be site- and
time-specific, clear and concise, and in a form that makes it easily
usable by busy fire and non-fire people. If the forecast's underlying
conditions or assumptions change, the forecast must be quickly updated
and communicated immediately to all incident management personnel.

**EXERCISES (HO17, 18-S590):**

**REVIEW OBJECTIVES:**

1\. Describe ways fire behavior forecasts are used.

2\. Describe the types of fire behavior forecasts.

3\. Describe the sections of each type of forecast.

4\. Identify the key points of the fire weather forecast to include in
fire behavior forecasts.

5\. Identify conditions that warrant updating a fire behavior forecast
during an operational period.

6\. Demonstrate completion of fire behavior forecasts and long-term risk
assessments.

7\. Write clear, concise operational fire behavior forecasts that are
free of strategy and tactics using a standard format and guidelines.