**USDA, APHIS, Qualitative Risk Assessment for potential Federal noxious
weeds - Template**

# Introduction

Under the Plant Protection Act (PPA), the Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service (APHIS) list in the noxious weed regulations (7 CFR
360) those plant species officially designated as noxious weeds. The PPA
defines "Noxious Weed" as "any plant or plant product that can directly
or indirectly injure or cause damage to crops (including nursery stock
or plant products), livestock, poultry or other interests of
agriculture, irrigation, navigation, the natural resources of the United
States, the public health, or the environment".

Under international agreements, a signatory country can prohibit
importation only of quarantine pests. A quarantine pest is defined as "a
pest of potential economic importance to the area endangered thereby and
not yet present there, or present but not widely distributed and being
officially controlled". APHIS lists in the noxious weed regulations only
weeds that meet the definition of a quarantine pest.

APHIS invites you to use this template to provide information about a
plant species you suspect meets these two definitions and should be
listed as a noxious weed. If the plant is not widely prevalent in the
United States and can cause direct or indirect injury to agriculture or
the environment, complete this form to propose the species for listing.
Fill in each section. For more information, please see the document
titled "Weed-Initiated Pest Risk Assessment Guidelines for Qualitative
Assessments." If you do not know the answer to a particular question,
enter "d/k" for "don't know". Fully cite references at the end of the
document. Within the document, cite references after each piece of
information as (author(s), year).

Prepare the following:

1.  An electronic version of this completed form, saved in Microsoft
    Word or Word Perfect.

2.  A hard copy of the completed form.

3.  One copy each of the references cited. (Include the title page, and
    applicable article or pages cited.)

Mail all three to:

Polly Lehtonen, Botanist

Biological and Technical Services

Plant Protection and Quarantine

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

U.S. Department of Agriculture

4700 River Road, Unit 133, Office 4C78

Riverdale, MD 20737-1236

Organism:

Date Submitted:

Submitter's Information

Name:

Organization:

Telephone Number:

Fax Number:

Mailing Address:

E-mail Address:

Stage 1: Initiating Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Process

**Step 1. Document the Initiating Event(s) for the PRA:**

**Step 2. Identify and Cite Previous Risk Assessments:**

**Step 3. Establish Identity of Weed:**

Scientific Name: Order, Family, Genus, species, author:

Synonym(s):

Common name(s):

Description, general morphology:

Pertinent information regarding life history, including growth,
development, means of reproduction and dispersal:

Preferred habitat and climatic tolerance:

Native distribution:

Current world distribution beyond native distribution:

Stage 2: Assessing pest risk

**Step 4. Verify Quarantine Pest Status: Geographic and Regulatory
Criteria.**

The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) definition of a
quarantine pest is one having "potential economic importance to the area
endangered thereby and not yet present there, or present but not widely
distributed and being officially controlled".

Discuss the geographic status of the organism in the United States. If
the organism has been introduced, discuss the history of introduction
and identify local, state, or other control efforts. If the species is
present in the United States and has reached the limits of its
ecological range, then the species does not satisfy the definition of a
quarantine pest and the PRA stops here. If the species has limited
distribution but is not subject to official control, or is lacking
support for local or State control, then the pest does not satisfy the
definition of quarantine pest and the PRA stops here.

**Step 5. Assess Economic and Environmental Importance: Consequences of
Introduction.**

After each of the four risk elements (A-D) in step 5, discuss the
rationale for your ratin[^1] and the level of certainty.

A. Establishment potential or habitat suitability in the protected area.
Estimate the potential range in the United States, considering suitable
climate conditions. If possible, attach a map or maps designating the
predicted ecological range compared to the current distribution. Climate
matching software such as CLIMEX (Number range CHAPTERwhich is available
from the Hearne Scientific Software website at www.hearne.com.au) may be
used to compare sites where the species is known to occur elsewhere in
the world with sites in the United States. Describe the quality of
climate data.

Assign rating as follows:

+-------------+------------+------------------------------------------+
| Rating      | Numerical  | Explanation: Suitable climate and        |
|             | Score      | habitats (and availability of host       |
|             |            | plants, if the organism is a parasitic   |
|             |            | plant) would permit the weed to survive  |
|             |            | and establish:                           |
+=============+============+==========================================+
| High        | 3          | In most or all of the United States      |
|             |            | (generally, in more than four plant      |
|             |            | hardiness zones).                        |
+-------------+------------+------------------------------------------+
| Medium      | 2          | Approximately one-third to two-thirds of |
|             |            | the United States (generally, in three   |
|             |            | or four plant hardiness zones).          |
+-------------+------------+------------------------------------------+
| # Low       | 1          | Approximately one-third or less of the   |
|             |            | United States (one or two plant          |
|             |            | hardiness zones).                        |
+-------------+------------+------------------------------------------+
| Negligible  | 0          | No potential to survive and become       |
|             |            | established in the PRA area.             |
+-------------+------------+------------------------------------------+

Discuss your rationale for the rating and the level of certainty.

B. Spread potential after establishment, dispersal potential. Discuss
the biological attributes of the species that allow it to spread and
identify dispersal mechanisms. For example, determine which of the
following apply:

-   Consistent and prolific seed production

-   Rapid growth to reproductive maturity

-   High germination rate under a wide range of conditions

-   Ability to suppress the growth of other plants by releasing a
    chemical inhibitor

-   Ability to persist as dormant long-lived propagules or underground
    parts, such as rhizomes, tubers, turions or stolons

-   Seed dormancy

-   Stress tolerance, including ability to resist herbicides

-   Ability to colonize a wide variety of habitats

-   Lack of natural control agents

-   Well-developed storage tissue (for example, tap root)

-   Dispersal by wind, water, machinery, animals, and/or humans

Assign rating as follows:

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Rating      Numerical      Explanation
              score          
  ----------- -------------- --------------------------------------------
  High        3              Weed has potential for rapid natural spread
                             throughout its potential range in the PRA
                             area (*e.g.*, high reproductive potential
                             *AND* highly mobile propagules)

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

  ------------ -------------- --------------------------------------------
  Medium       2              Weed has potential for natural spread
                              throughout a physiographic region of the PRA
                              within a year (*e.g*., it has either high
                              reproductive potential *OR* highly mobile
                              propagules).

  Low          1              Weed has potential for natural spread
                              locally in the PRA area within a year (some
                              reproductive potential and/or some mobility
                              of propagules).

  Negligible   0              Weed has no potential for natural spread in
                              the PRA area
  ------------ -------------- --------------------------------------------

Discuss your rationale for the rating and the level of certainty.

C. Economic Impact

Discuss the potential economic importance of the species in the PRA
area. Consider three primary types of damage:

1\. Reduced crop yield (*e.g.*, by parasitism, competition, or by
harboring other pests).

2\. Lowering of commodity value (e.g., by increasing costs of
production, lowering market price, or a combination); or if not an
agricultural weed, by increasing costs of control.

3\. Loss of markets (foreign or domestic) due to presence of a new
quarantine pest.

Assign ratings as follows:

  ------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Rating       Numerical      Explanation
               score          
  ------------ -------------- --------------------------------------------
  High         3              Weed causes all three of the above impacts,
                              or causes any two impacts over a wide range
                              (over 5 types) of economic plants, plant
                              products, or animals.

  Medium       2              Weed causes any two of the above impacts, or
                              causes any one impact to a wide range (over
                              5 types) of economic plants, plant products,
                              or animals.

  Low          1              Weed causes any one of the above impacts.

  Negligible   0              Weed causes none of the above impacts.
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------

Discuss your rationale for the rating and the level of certainty.

D. Environmental Impact

Consider whether or not the weed, if introduced, could:

-   Cause impacts on ecosystem processes (alteration of hydrology,
    sedimentation rates, a fire regime, nutrient regimes, changes in
    productivity, growth, yield, vigor, etc.)

-   Cause impacts on natural community composition (*e.g.,* reduce
    biodiversity, affect native populations, affect endangered or
    threatened species, impact keystone species, impact native fauna,
    pollinators, or microorganisms, etc.)

-   Cause impacts on community structure (*e.g.,* change density of a
    layer, cover the canopy, eliminate or create a layer, impact
    wildlife habitats, etc.)

-   Have impacts on human health such as allergies or changes in air or
    water quality.

-   Have sociological impacts on recreation patterns and aesthetic or
    property values.

-   Stimulate control programs including toxic chemical pesticides or
    introduction of a nonindigenous biological control agent.

Assign ratings as follows:

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Rating       Numerical Score   Explanation
  ------------ ----------------- ------------------------------------------
  High         3                 Three or more of the above. (Potential to
                                 cause major damage to the environment with
                                 significant losses to plant ecosystems and
                                 subsequent physical environmental
                                 degradation.) (Population reduction of
                                 endangered or threatened species would
                                 elevate that one factor to a high rating.)

  Medium       2                 Two of the above. (Potential to cause
                                 moderate impact on the environment with
                                 obvious change in the ecological balance,
                                 affecting several attributes of the
                                 ecosystem, as well as moderate recreation
                                 or aesthetic impacts.)

  Low          1                 One of the above, unless the factor is
                                 potential to reduce populations of
                                 endangered or threatened species, which
                                 rates High. (Limited potential impact on
                                 environment.)

  Negligible   0                 None of the above. (No potential to
                                 degrade the environment or otherwise
                                 affect ecosystems.)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

Discuss your rationale for the rating and the level of certainty.

ECONOMIC and ENVIRONMENTAL IMPORTANCE SUMMARY: Consequences of
Introduction: Cumulative Risk Element Score

Add together the numerical estimates for the four risk elements to
produce an overall estimate of the Consequences of Introduction Risk
Rating for the weed. The overall risk rating is used to assign a
Consequences of Introduction Risk Score as follows:

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Risk: Consequences of Introduction (Sum Risk Elements #1-4)

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

  ------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Cumulative Risk Element Score          Risk Rating      Risk Score
  -------------------------------------- ---------------- ----------------
  0 - 2                                  Negligible       0

  3 - 6                                  Low              1

  7 - 10                                 Medium           2

  11 - 12                                High             3
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Consequences of Introduction Risk Rating is an indicator of the
potential of the weed to become established and spread, and its
potential to cause economic and environmental impacts

**Step 6. Assess Likelihood of Introduction.**

Discuss entry potential and establishment potential. What is the
likelihood that the species will enter the United States, survive the
shipment and find a suitable habitat for survival? Consider:

-   Number range CHAPTERInterest in cultivation of the species for
    ornament, food, medicine, or other uses.

-   Evidence of previous importation

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-   Prevalence in area of origin

-   The potential for contamination of commodities or conveyances by the
    species

-   Whether the species can survive under the environmental conditions
    of shipment

-   Ease or difficulty of detection through visual inspection

-   Probability of surviving existing phytosanitary procedures

-   Frequency and quantity of pest movement into the PRA area by named
    means

-   Number and frequency of shipments of contaminated commodities

-   Number of individuals of the species associated with each named
    conveyance or commodity

-   Intended use of named commodities

-   Season of arrival and distribution of commodities

Assign ratings as follows:

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Rating       Numerical Score   Explanation: Introduction is
  ------------ ----------------- ------------------------------------------
  High         3                 Very likely or certain, given the
                                 combination of factors above

  Medium       2                 Likely

  Low          1                 Low, but clearly possible

  Negligible   0                 Extremely unlikely
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

Discuss the rationale for your rating and the level of certainty.

**Step 7. Conclusion: Pest Risk Potential of Weed.**

Produce an estimate of the pest risk potential by considering the
Consequences of Introduction and the Likelihood of Introduction scores,
using the following table as a guide. The overall pest risk potential is
obtained from the combination of the scores for likelihood of
introduction and consequences of introduction:

+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Likelihood of         | Consequences of       | Overall Pest Risk     |
| Introduction          | Introduction          | Potential             |
|                       |                       |                       |
| (Rating and Score)    | (Rating and Score)    |                       |
+=======================+=======================+=======================+
| Negligible (0)        | Negligible (0)        | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Negligible (0)        | Low (1)               | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Negligible (0)        | Medium (2)            | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Negligible (0)        | High (3)              | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Low (1)               | Negligible (0)        | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Low (1)               | Low (1)               | Low                   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Low (1)               | Medium (2)            | Low                   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Low (1)               | High (3)              | Low                   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Medium (2)            | Negligible (0)        | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Medium (2)            | Low (1)               | Low                   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Medium (2)            | Medium (2)            | Medium                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Medium (2)            | High (3)              | Medium-High           |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| High (3)              | Negligible (0)        | Negligible            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| High (3)              | Low (1)               | Low                   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| High (3)              | Medium (2)            | Medium-High           |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| High (3)              | High (3)              | High                  |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+

Discuss whether or not the species satisfies the definition of
quarantine pest. Summarize the information from the previous six steps
and discuss the rating.

**Step 8. Document the PRA. Cite references.**

Cite references in alphabetical order by author**.**

Minimally, consult the following, searching on the currently accepted
name and synonyms:

A. Databases

The United States' National Agricultural Library's index, *Bibliography
of Agriculture* (printed), or its electronic equivalent, *AGRICOLA*
(database available on-line or on CD-ROM with coverage beginning in
1970). Search on the accepted scientific name, synonyms, and common
names. **Request all relevant articles**.

Commonwealth Agriculture Bureaux International's (CABI) printed
abstracts (database available on-line or on CD-ROM with coverage
beginning in 1972). Search on the accepted scientific name, synonyms,
and common names. **Request all relevant articles**.

Commonwealth Agriculture Bureaux International's Crop Protection
Compendium. Global Module, Second Edition. 8 CAB International,
Wallingford, UK, 2000.

The Germplasm Resources Information Network (GRIN) database, which is
available on the web at http://www.ars-grin.gov/npgs/tax/index.html

The Plant List of Accepted Nomenclature, Taxonomy, & Symbols (PLANTS)
database, which is available on the World Wide Web at
http://plants.usda.gov/

B. Some Key Publications to Review, among others:

Holm, L.G. et al. 1979. *A Geographic Atlas of World Weeds*.

Holm, L.G. et al. 1977. *World's Worst Weeds*.

Holm, L.G. et al. 1997. *World Weeds, Natural Histories and
Distribution*.

Number range CHAPTERRandall, R.P. 2002. *A Global Compendium of World
Weeds*. Published by and available from R.G. and F.J. Richardson, P.O.
Box 42, Meredith, Victoria 3333, Australia.

Reed, C.F. 1977. *Economically Important Foreign Weeds*.

Weber, E. 2003. *Invasive Plant Species of the World, a reference guide
to environmental weeds.* Published by CABI Publishing, 44 Brattle
Street, 4^th^ Floor, Cambridge, MA 02138.

The floras of the areas in which the plant occurs.

Weed references for the countries in which the species has been
introduced.

C. Misc.

# Internet search using currently accepted scientific name, synonyms, and common name(s).

Number range CHAPTERUSDA, APHIS, PPQ interception records (contact
National Identification Services (301) 734-5241 or (301) 734-8808 to
request a report).

[^1]: g