Arctic Climate Observations and Analysis

A summary of activities being supported in FY 2003-FY2005 by the NOAA
Arctic Research Office as a contribution to the Climate Observations and
Analysis Program to support NOAA's Climate Goal.

I. Arctic Climate Observing System

The NOAA ACOS consists of NOAA-supported in situ observing networks,
ship-based in situ sampling, a climate change detection activity based
on data from other sources, and a data management component.

The networks are:

1.  International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP)

2.  Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Network

3.  Arctic Ocean Observations Network

4.  Arctic Climate-Ecosystem Interactions

5.  Arctic Cloud, Radiation, and Aerosol Network

The climate change detection activity takes advantage of data from the
networks listed above and all other relevant data sources to detect and
track change in climate or in environmental response.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center, in conjunction with the involved
scientists, is responsible for managing the data from these activities.

The **[International Arctic Buoy Program]{.underline}** is the most
mature of these activities, having existed for over twenty-five years as
an internationally funded activity (1979-present).  NOAA provides
support for a portion of the basic operations of the IABP and has
recently provided funding to accelerate deployments in the Eurasian
portion of the Arctic.  Most of the buoys measure sea level air
temperature and pressure, and are positioned by the Argos system
operating on the NOAA satellites.  Many of the buoys are also enhanced
with GPS location to more accurately track ice drift. Information is
routinely transmitted to the GTS for use in operational forecasting.

The **[Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Network]{.underline}** consists of two
types of sensors. Standard mooring technology is used to deploy upward
looking sonar to provide a Eulerian view of ice thickness as ice is
advected through the field of view of the ULS. The NOAA-funded moorings
are part of an ad hoc collection of internationally funded moorings;
they must be recovered in order to retrieve data. Ice-mounted buoys are
used to provide direct measurements of ice thickness as it evolves over
the seasons at a given point in the ice. The buoys also directly measure
thickness of snow cover on the ice, temperature profiles from above the
ice, through the ice and in the near surface water column. The buoys
also measure air temperature and sea level pressure and transmit all
data via Iridium modem in near real time; the position and
meteorological data are entered to the GTS, but not the ice and snow
data, which doesn't have an operational use at present.

The NOAA **[Arctic Ocean Observations Network]{.underline}** is a
component of a larger international effort. NOAA supports oceanographic
moorings in the northern Bering Sea and the Bering Strait. These
moorings complement the FOCI moorings maintained by PMEL in the southern
Bering Sea, and also contribute to the circum-Arctic/Subarctic Ocean
Flux (ASOF) network being undertaken by an international group. In
addition, NOAA supports moorings and gliders in the Labrador Sea that
are also part of ASOF. Plans exist to expand this network to include
internal Arctic Ocean circulation, and basin-scale heat and fresh water
storage.

The **[Climate-Ecosystem Interactions]{.underline}** observations are
made by ship-based surveys that are conducted every four years in the
northern Bering and Chukchi Seas, a region where climate change is
expected to be large and rapid. Information on species abundance and
diversity are obtained from different levels of the ecosystem --
plankton, fish, benthos. Simultaneous characterization of the physical
and nutrient state of the ocean allows for analysis of biologic
relationships to physical variables.

The **[Arctic Cloud, Radiation, and Aerosol Network]{.underline}** is a
small network of sophisticated atmospheric observatories around the
Arctic rim, funded through partnerships with other agencies or
countries. The long-standing NOAA Barrow Observatory in combination with
the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility is the foundation of
the network, with additional observatories existing or planned in
northeastern Canada, Greenland Summit, north central Siberia, and
northern Norway or Svalbard. This network provides high-resolution
information on a variety of key atmospheric variables that permit
characterization of unique Arctic atmospheric processes and inclusion of
them in climate models, and also provides solid reference points for
calibrating satellite sensors at the high northern latitudes.

The **[Arctic Climate Change Detection]{.underline}** activity uses
current and retrospective observations to understand and anticipate
changes in the Arctic. A protocol for Arctic Change Detection will be
developed that incorporates physical and biological variables from
terrestrial and marine environments. A key feature of this activity is
the provision of scientific information in forms understandable to
non-specialists.

# 

# II. Arctic Climate Analysis Activities

The set of Arctic Climate Analysis activities include the following:

1.  Retrospective Analysis of Arctic Clouds and Radiation from Surface
    and Satellite Measurements

2.  Correction of Systematic Errors in TOVS Radiances

3.  Arctic System Reanalysis

4.  Arctic Climate Data Rescue and Integration

5.  Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

The activity for **Retrospective Analysis** of Arctic Clouds and
Radiation from Surface and Satellite Measurements will focus on a
retrospective analysis of coincident surface measurements and
satellite-derived quantities, comparing one to the other, and assessing
the spatial and temporal variability in each parameter. Because of the
long-history of data, an emphasis will be placed on analysis of data
from the Barrow area of Alaska. There is much that can be learned from
the historical surface and satellite datasets. Cloud and radiation
fields need to be examined in more detail, other geophysical parameters
should be examined, similarities and differences in surface and
satellite-derived measurements need to be assessed, and regional trends
must be explained. Furthermore, the interactions between parameters,
i.e., the ice/snow albedo and cloud radiation feedbacks, are poorly
understood.

There is a need to **Correct Systematic Errors in TOVS** to use TOVS
data for climate applications, as the radiances were not adequately
calibrated for long-term accuracy. Consequently, substantial systematic
errors from various sources greatly reduce the potential value of TOVS
observations for monitoring and understanding climate change. The
proposed work will attempt to identify, quantify, and mitigate these
errors with the ultimate goal of producing a 20-year (or more) record of
TOVS radiances and retrieved products that are as error-free as
practicable. The expected product of this investigation will be a data
set of tremendous value both for geophysical retrievals with sufficient
accuracy to identify changes since 1979, as well as for direct
assimilation by numerical atmospheric models.

Initiation of an **Arctic System Reanalysis** would have several
benefits. First, the reanalysis would produce long time series of
temporally and dynamically consistent fields (subject to changes in
observing system input) of Arctic upper-air and surface winds,
humidities and temperatures for studies of circulation variability
(e.g., the AO, NAO and their Arctic manifestations); for budget studies;
and for the driving of sea ice and ocean models. Second, the atmospheric
component of the reanalysis would provide fields for which direct
observations are sparse or problematic (e.g., precipitation,
evapotranspiration, radiation and clouds) at higher spatial and temporal
resolution, and with greater reliability, than from existing reanalyses.
Third, the system-oriented approach required for a reanalysis would
provide a community focus, involving at least the Arctic terrestrial,
sea ice and atmospheric communities. Fourth, the reanalysis would
leverage upon, and provide a synthesis of, Arctic field programs (SHEBA,
LAII/ATLAS, ARM,...), capitalizing upon prior investments by bringing
field results to bear upon the parameterizations used in large-scale
models. Finally, the groundwork for an Arctic regional reanalysis can
now be performed by capitalizing upon ongoing efforts such as ERA-40 and
NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), as well as recently
compiled Polar Pathfinder products from satellites. Efforts will focus
on building the intellectual and organizational partnerships needed to
undertake the ASR, and on evaluating and enhancing appropriate models.

An effort on **Arctic Climate Data Rescue and Integration** is required
because there are many existing observational data sets that may be
useful to SEARCH, but they are underutilized for reasons including

-   Cover only a limited length in time or spatial extent

-   Unknown accuracy, limited or no information about observing methods

-   Not an ongoing record

-   Inaccessible or costly to acquire

-   Research community is unaware they exist

In addition to observational data sets, there are data streams that are
underutilized. For example, only about 10% of the Russian national
station network data are internationally exchanged over the GTS system
and included in quality-controlled data sets available from U.S.
national data centers.

These underutilized data sources are not optimal because of the effort
required to use them, but at the same time they can be vitally important
to reanalysis and change detection efforts. These observations reside in
a number of institutions around the world, and here the challenge will
be to obtain and combine data sets into useful arctic-wide products.

The **Arctic Climate Impact Assessment** (ACIA) is a four-year
comprehensive scientific assessment that was established and charged at
the Ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council in Barrow, Alaska in the
fall of 2000. The ministers called for the ACIA to (i) evaluate and
synthesize knowledge on the impacts and consequences of climate
variability and change and increased ultraviolet radiation across the
Arctic region, and (ii) support decision and policy making processes for
the eight Arctic countries and their residents. ACIA is charged with
assessing environmental, human health, social, cultural and economic
impacts and consequences, including recommendations, by assessing how
climate and UV radiation have been changing in the Arctic, how they are
projected to change in the future, and the likely impacts of those
changes. Most importantly, the assessment is charged with the
responsibility of providing useful information to the governments,
organizations, and peoples of the Arctic and the world to help them
respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change.
The United States volunteered to lead the ACIA and the National Science
Foundation and NOAA are the sponsors. The ACIA teams of authors,
including substantial expert contributions by indigenous and other
residents of the Arctic, will submit their final peer-reviewed reports
to the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Sciences Committee
during the Ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council in Reykjavik,
Iceland in November 2004. The ACIA process is expected to continue after
submission of the report and be a mechanism for the Arctic countries to
work together to understand and respond to climate change.