Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 5/03/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** PO4009

PO4000

**Portugal**

**Grain and Feed**

**Voluntary**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Lloyd Fleck

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Leonor Ramos

**Report Highlights:**

Portugal\'s 2004 grain harvest will be significantly higher than last
year due to improved yields. Wheat production is forecast at 313,000
tons and corn, at 795,000 tons. With improved domestic and European
crops, Portugal's imports from the U.S. will likely decline in MY
2004/05: imports of U.S. wheat should return to the "normal" level of
around 60,000 tons of high-protein wheat (140,000 tons in 2003/04).

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Madrid \[SP1\]

\[PO\]

**TABLE OF CONTENTS**

[Executive Summary 3](#executive-summary)

[Commodity Name: Total Wheat 5](#commodity-name-total-wheat)

[Production, Supply and Distribution Table
5](#production-supply-and-distribution-table)

[Import Trade Matrix 6](#import-trade-matrix)

[Export Trade Matrix 6](#export-trade-matrix)

[Commodity Name: Durum Wheat 7](#commodity-name-durum-wheat)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
7](#production-supply-distribution-table)

[Import Trade Matrix 8](#import-trade-matrix-1)

[Export Trade Matrix 8](#export-trade-matrix-1)

[Commodity Name: Barley 9](#commodity-name-barley)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
9](#production-supply-distribution-table-1)

[Import Trade Matrix 10](#import-trade-matrix-2)

[Export Trade Matrix 10](#export-trade-matrix-2)

[Commodity Name: Rye 11](#commodity-name-rye)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
11](#production-supply-distribution-table-2)

[Import Trade Matrix 12](#import-trade-matrix-3)

[Export Trade Matrix 12](#export-trade-matrix-3)

[Commodity Name: Oats 13](#commodity-name-oats)

[Production, Supply and Distribution Table
13](#production-supply-and-distribution-table-1)

[Import Trade Matrix 14](#import-trade-matrix-4)

[Export Trade Matrix 14](#export-trade-matrix-4)

[Commodity Outlook, Sorghum 15](#commodity-outlook-sorghum)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
15](#production-supply-distribution-table-3)

[Commodity Name: Rice, Milled 16](#commodity-name-rice-milled)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
16](#production-supply-distribution-table-4)

[Import Trade Matrix 17](#import-trade-matrix-5)

[Export Trade Matrix 17](#export-trade-matrix-5)

[Commodity Name: Corn 18](#commodity-name-corn)

[Production, Supply & Distribution Table
18](#production-supply-distribution-table-5)

[Import Trade Matrix 19](#import-trade-matrix-6)

[Export Trade Matrix 19](#export-trade-matrix-6)

#   {#section .unnumbered}

# Executive Summary

Portugal's grain area is reported to have remained basically unchanged
relative to 2003/04 levels, but the crop will be significantly higher
due to much improved winter grain yields. The Portuguese national
statistics office (INE) reports that average 2004 yields of durum wheat,
soft wheat and oats will be up 60, 35 and 50 percent, respectively, over
2003 levels. Portuguese 2004 grain outputs are forecast at the following
levels (in thousand tons, with 2003 levels in brackets): wheat, 313
(203); barley, 20 (9); rye, the only winter grain to have suffered a
mild area reduction, 26 (28); and oats, 67 (43). According to producer
sources, areas seeded this spring to corn and rice will remain basically
unchanged from previous year levels, which suggests milled rice and corn
outputs of 102,000 tons and 795,000 tons respectively.

Grain production during the next few years will be heavily influenced by
the effects of the 2003 CAP Reform, which will be implemented in
Portugal on January 1, 2005. Local authorities have opted for the full
subsidy de-coupling of grains, but activity abandonment is to be
mitigated by a re-adjustment of the Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM),
instituted at EU-level, but country-regulated. Under the revised local
AEM regime, total winter grains production may suffer only a mild
reduction in the post-CAP Reform period, while corn will likely suffer a
much larger decline as it is eligible to comparatively less attractive
AEMs. According to producer sources, only corn farmers with yields above
13 tons/hectare will be competitive when subsidy de-coupling comes into
place. However, the total decline in production may be smaller,
depending on other factors, such as farmers' psychological attitudes and
specific economic problems in closing down businesses.

Wheat imports are expected to go up in 2004/05 to 1.19 million tons
(1.06 million in 2003/04), recovering from last year's plunge caused by
exceptionally tight supply conditions in the wheat market. A larger
supply of local winter feed grains will lead to a higher incorporation
of wheat, barley and oats into feed, displacing corn. Portuguese imports
of other grains in 2004/05 are as follows, in thousand tons, with
2003/04 levels in brackets: corn, 1,209 (1,300); barley, 245 (250); Rye,
24 (23); Oats, 10 (20); Sorghum, 1 (60); Corn, 1,209 (1,300). Milled
rice imports in 2004/05 are forecast at 96,000 tons, unchanged from
2003/04.

Total grain imports from the U.S. will tend to be down in 2004/05, due
to the effects of higher U.S. export prices. Wheat imports from the U.S.
are forecast at 60,000 tons during 2004/05 (140,000 tons in 2003/04).
The trade does not expect a repetition of the exceptional last quarter
2003 market conditions, when it was cheaper to bring in zero-duty Spring
Wheat from the U.S. than to buy EU feed wheat. U.S. high-quality wheat
remains attractive, and the local trade is looking forward to the 2004
U.S. Soft Red, and Hard Red winter wheat crops. The local high-quality
wheat market is estimated at some 120,000 tons to 150,000 tons a year,
with German improving wheat being the main U.S. competitor. The U.S.
share of this market will ultimately depend upon the quality and prices
of the 2004 German crop.

Canada is also competitive in the high quality wheat market. Trade
sources report that 24,000 tons of Canadian wheat was recently unloaded
in the northern port of Leixões. This wheat was sourced from Canada due
to attractive prices for specific standards with high P/L ratios and
high protein levels. Trade sources quote French wheat at € 179-180/Tons,
ex-silo, Lisbon, slightly under-priced by the newly imported Canadian
wheat. Sorghum imports of U.S. origin are also expected to come down in
2004/05 from the previous year's 60,000 tons, due to the limited
commercial success of the venture. Trade sources report that some of the
sorghum that was purchased during the last quarter of 2003 remains
unsold, due to the reluctance of feed manufacturers to change their feed
mix to incorporate that nontraditional feed grain. However, total
2004/05 imports of sorghum will ultimately depend on the price ratios of
sorghum against competing feed grains, especially corn. Trade sources
say that sorghum is presently being sold in Lisbon, ex-silo, loaded on
truck for € 162/ton, while corn is being sold for € 178-180/ton.

1 USD = 0.84 €

# Commodity Name: Total Wheat

## Production, Supply and Distribution Table

  -- --------------------- -- -------------- --------- ------ --------- ------ ---------- ------ --------- ------ ---------- ------ --
     **PSD Table**                                                                                                                  

     **Country**              **Portugal**                                                                                          

     **Commodity**            **Wheat**                                        (1000                                                
                                                                               HA)(1000                                             
                                                                               TONS)                                                

                              2002           Revised          2003             Estimate          2004             Forecast          

                              \[Old\]        \[New\]          \[Old\]          \[New\]           \[Old\]          \[New\]           

     **Market Year Begin**                   07-2002                           07-2003                            07-2004           

     Area Harvested           231            230              180              175               0                175               

     Beginning Stocks         100            54               100              54                0                51                

     Production               434            434              203              203               0                313               

     TOTAL Mkt. Yr.           1506           1506             1410             1060              0                1186              
     Imports                                                                                                                        

     Jul-Jun Imports          1506           1506             1410             1060              0                1186              

     Jul-Jun Import U.S.      47             47               150              140               0                60                

     TOTAL SUPPLY             2040           1994             1713             1317              0                1550              

     TOTAL Mkt. Yr.           171            171              115              60                0                100               
     Exports                                                                                                                        

     Jul-Jun Exports          171            171              115              60                0                100               

     Feed Dom. Consumption    869            869              598              306               0                500               

     TOTAL Dom.               1769           1769             1498             1206              0                1400              
     Consumption                                                                                                                    

     Ending Stocks            100            54               100              51                0                50                

     TOTAL DISTRIBUTION       2040           1994             1713             1317              0                1550              

                                                                                                                                    
  -- --------------------- -- -------------- --------- ------ --------- ------ ---------- ------ --------- ------ ---------- ------ --

+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| ##                   |             |                 |              |
|  Import Trade Matrix |             |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal    |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**        | Wheat       |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Time Period          | July/Dec.   | Units:          | Metric Tons  |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Imports for:         | 2002        |                 | **2003**     |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| U.S.                 | 17,950      | U.S.            | 77,374       |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Others               |             | Others          |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| France               | 266,006     | France          | 279,173      |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| U.K.                 | 104,536     | U.K.            | 129,304      |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Germany              | 70,347      | Germany         | 59,273       |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Spain                | 32,231      | Spain           | 52,757       |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Other EU             | 8,498       | Other EU        | 13,117       |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Ukraine              | 297,430     | Kazakhstan      | 8,062        |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Bulgaria             | 40,041      | Latvia          | 7,244        |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Russia               | 34,064      |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Kazakhstan           | 13,480      |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Lithuania            | 6,237       |                 |              |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Total for Others     | 872,870     |                 | 548,930      |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed    | 5,978       |                 | 0            |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+
| Grand Total          | 896,798     |                 | 626,304      |
+----------------------+-------------+-----------------+--------------+

+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| ##                   |            |                  |              |
|  Export Trade Matrix |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal   |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**        | Wheat      |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Time Period          | July/Dec.  | Units:           | Metric Tons  |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Exports for:         | 2002       |                  | **2003**     |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| U.S.                 | 0          | U.S.             | 0            |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Others               |            | Others           |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Spain                | 132,451    | Spain            | 36,616       |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| U.K.                 | 2,490      | U.K.             | 8,160        |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
|                      |            |                  |              |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others     | 134,941    |                  | 44,776       |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed    | 0          |                  | 0            |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total          | 134,941    |                  | 44,776       |
+----------------------+------------+------------------+--------------+

# Commodity Name: Durum Wheat

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                      

  **Country**             **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**           **Wheat,                             (1000                 
                          Durum**                              HA)(1000              
                                                               TONS)                 

                          2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                          USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                          \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                         \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                  07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested          160            188        0          145        0          145

  Beginning Stocks        9              9          0          9          0          0

  Production              192            348        0          156        0          250

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports  143            52         0          62         0          55

  Jul-Jun Imports         143            52         0          62         0          55

  Jul-Jun Import U.S.     0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            344            409        0          227        0          305

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports  70             63         0          16         0          30

  Jul-Jun Exports         70             63         0          16         0          30

  Feed Dom. Consumption   90             162        0          36         0          100

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  265            337        0          211        0          275

  Ending Stocks           9              9          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      344            409        0          227        0          305
  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| ## Im             |            |                    |               |
| port Trade Matrix |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| **Country**       | Portugal   |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| **Commodity**     | Wheat,     |                    |               |
|                   | Durum      |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Time Period       | Jul/Dec    | Units:             | Metric Tons   |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Imports for:      | 2002       |                    | **2003**      |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| U.S.              | 0          | U.S.               | 0             |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Others            |            | Others             |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Spain             | 18,458     | Spain              | 22,483        |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| France            | 4,560      | U.K.               | 4,399         |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Netherlands       | 1,187      | Netherlands        | 1,674         |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Germany           | 537        | Germany            | 1,028         |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Italy             | 3          | Italy              | 5             |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
|                   |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
|                   |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
|                   |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
|                   |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
|                   |            |                    |               |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Total for Others  | 24,745     |                    | 29,589        |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Others not Listed | 0          |                    | 0             |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+
| Grand Total       | 24,745     |                    | 29,589        |
+-------------------+------------+--------------------+---------------+

+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| ##                   |           |                   |              |
|  Export Trade Matrix |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal  |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| ####### Commodity    | Wheat,    |                   |              |
|                      | Durum     |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Time Period          | Jul/Dec   | Units:            | Metric Tons  |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Exports for:         | 2002      |                   | **2003**     |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| U.S.                 | 0         | U.S.              | 0            |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others               |           | Others            |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Spain                | 60,124    | Spain             | 14,787       |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
|                      |           |                   |              |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others     | 60,124    |                   | 14,787       |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed    | 0         |                   | 0            |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total          | 60,124    |                   | 14,787       |
+----------------------+-----------+-------------------+--------------+

# Commodity Name: Barley

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                      

  **Country**             **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**           **Barley**                           (1000                 
                                                               HA)(1000              
                                                               TONS)                 

                          2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                          USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                          \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                         \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                  07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested          11             11         8          10         0          10

  Beginning Stocks        9              9          0          9          0          3

  Production              20             20         9          9          0          20

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports  288            288        289        250        0          245

  Oct-Sep Imports         250            300        290        250        0          245

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.     0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            317            317        298        268        0          268

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports  9              9          5          2          0          3

  Oct-Sep Exports         5              4          5          2          0          3

  Feed Dom. Consumption   145            136        130        100        0          102

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  308            299        293        263        0          265

  Ending Stocks           0              9          0          3          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      317            317        298        268        0          268
  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| ##                   |             |                |               |
|  Import Trade Matrix |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal    |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| **Commodity**        | Barley      |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Time Period          | Jul/Dec.    | Units:         | Metric Tons   |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Imports for:         | 2002        |                | **2003**      |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| U.S.                 | 0           | U.S.           | 0             |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Others               |             | Others         |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Germany              | 75,918      | U.K.           | 48,766        |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| U.K.                 | 41,559      | Germany        | 39,582        |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| France               | 37,376      | France         | 34,206        |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Spain                | 8,756       | Spain          | 26,619        |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Netherlands          | 7,402       | Netherlands    | 7             |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
|                      |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
|                      |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
|                      |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
|                      |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
|                      |             |                |               |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Total for Others     | 171,011     |                | 149,180       |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Others not Listed    | 0           |                | 0             |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+
| Grand Total          | 171,011     |                | 149,180       |
+----------------------+-------------+----------------+---------------+

+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| ##                  |              |                |               |
| Export Trade Matrix |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| **Country**         | Portugal     |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| **Commodity**       | Barley       |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Time Period         | Jul/Dec.     | Units:         | Metric Tons   |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Exports for:        | 2002         |                | **2003**      |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| U.S.                | 0            | U.S.           | 0             |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Others              |              | Others         |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Spain               | 7,181        | Spain          | 681           |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
|                     |              |                |               |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Total for Others    | 7,181        |                | 681           |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Others not Listed   | 0            |                | 0             |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+
| Grand Total         | 7,181        |                | 681           |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+---------------+

# Commodity Name: Rye

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                      

  **Country**             **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**           **Rye**                              (1000                 
                                                               HA)(1000              
                                                               TONS)                 

                          2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                          USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                          \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                         \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                  07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested          34             34         34         32         0          30

  Beginning Stocks        0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production              34             34         28         28         0          26

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports  20             20         27         23         0          24

  Oct-Sep Imports         20             20         27         15         0          24

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.     0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            54             54         55         51         0          50

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports  0              0          0          0          0          0

  Oct-Sep Exports         0              0          0          0          0          0

  Feed Dom. Consumption   0              14         0          11         0          10

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  54             54         55         51         0          50

  Ending Stocks           0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      54             54         55         51         0          50
  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| ##                  |            |                   |              |
| Import Trade Matrix |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| **Country**         | Portugal   |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**       | Rye        |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Time Period         | July/Dec   | Units:            | Metric Tons  |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Imports for:        | 2002       |                   | **2003**     |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| U.S.                | 0          | U.S.              | 0            |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others              |            | Others            |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Spain               | 4,743      | Spain             | 7,663        |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Italy               | 1,504      | Germany           | 6,939        |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Germany             | 1,028      | Other EU          | 81           |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Ukraine             | 5,189      |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
|                     |            |                   |              |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others    | 12,464     |                   | 14,683       |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed   | 0          |                   | 0            |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total         | 12,464     |                   | 14,683       |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+--------------+

+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| ##                   |              |                |              |
|  Export Trade Matrix |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal     |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**        | Rye          |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Time Period          | July/Dec     | Units:         | Metric Tons  |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Exports for:         | 2002         |                | **2003**     |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| U.S.                 | 0            | U.S.           | 0            |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Others               |              | Others         |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
|                      |              |                |              |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Total for Others     | 0            |                | 0            |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed    | 0            |                | 0            |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+
| Grand Total          | 0            |                | 0            |
+----------------------+--------------+----------------+--------------+

# Commodity Name: Oats

## Production, Supply and Distribution Table

  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                      

  **Country**             **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**           **Oats**                             (1000                 
                                                               HA)(1000              
                                                               TONS)                 

                          2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                          USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                          \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                         \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                  07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested          57             57         65         57         0          60

  Beginning Stocks        0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production              61             61         43         43         0          67

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports  14             14         15         20         0          10

  Oct-Sep Imports         14             15         15         20         0          10

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.     0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            75             75         58         63         0          77

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports  0              0          0          0          0          2

  Oct-Sep Exports         0              0          0          0          0          2

  Feed Dom. Consumption   28             40         11         28         0          40

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  75             75         58         63         0          75

  Ending Stocks           0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      75             75         58         63         0          77
  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| ##                   |            |                    |            |
|  Import Trade Matrix |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| **Country**          | Portugal   |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| **Commodity**        | Oats       |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Time Period          | July/Dec   | Units:             | Metric     |
|                      |            |                    | Tons       |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Imports for:         | 2002       |                    | **2003**   |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| U.S.                 | 0          | U.S.               | 0          |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Others               |            | Others             |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| U.K.                 | 7,433      | U.K.               | 8,573      |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Spain                | 1,101      | Spain              | 4,058      |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Other EU             | 33         | Other EU           | 6          |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
|                      |            |                    |            |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Total for Others     | 8,567      |                    | 12,637     |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Others not Listed    | 0          |                    | 0          |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+
| Grand Total          | 8,567      |                    | 12,637     |
+----------------------+------------+--------------------+------------+

+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| ##                  |            |                   |             |
| Export Trade Matrix |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| **Country**         | Portugal   |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**       | Oats       |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Time Period         | July/Dec   | Units:            | Metric Tons |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Exports for:        | 2002       |                   | **2003**    |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| U.S.                | 0          | U.S.              | 0           |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Others              |            | Others            |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Spain               | 324        | Spain             | 171         |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                     |            |                   |             |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others    | 324        |                   | 171         |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed   | 0          |                   | 0           |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total         | 324        |                   | 171         |
+---------------------+------------+-------------------+-------------+

# Commodity Outlook, Sorghum

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ------------------------ -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                       

  **Country**              **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**            **Sorghum**                          (1000                 
                                                                HA)(1000              
                                                                TONS)                 

                           2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                           USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                           \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                          \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                   07-2002               07-2002               07-2002

  Area Harvested           0              0          0          0          0          0

  Beginning Stocks         0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production               0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports   1              1          100        60         0          1

  Oct-Sep Imports          1              1          100        60         0          1

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.      0              0          100        60         0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY             1              1          100        60         0          1

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports   0              0          0          0          0          0

  Oct-Sep Exports          0              0          0          0          0          0

  Feed Dom. Consumption    0              1          100        60         0          1

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption   1              1          100        60         0          1

  Ending Stocks            0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION       1              1          100        60         0          1
  ------------------------ -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Commodity Name: Rice, Milled

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ---------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                     

  **Country**            **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**          **Rice,                              (1000                 
                         Milled**                             HA)(1000              
                                                              TONS)                 

                         2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                         USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                         \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                        \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                 07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested         25             25         25         25         0          25

  Beginning Stocks       25             25         25         30         20         30

  Milled Production      102            102        102        102        0          102

  Rough Production       146            146        146        146        0          146

  MILLING RATE (.9999)   0,7            0,7        0,7        0,7        0          0,7

  TOTAL Imports          95             102        91         96         0          96

  Jan-Dec Imports        86             92         91         99         0          96

  Jan-Dec Import U.S.    0              0          1          1          0          1

  TOTAL SUPPLY           222            229        218        228        20         228

  TOTAL Exports          11             11         10         9          0          8

  Jan-Dec Exports        9              0          10         3          0          8

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption 186            188        188        189        0          190

  Ending Stocks          25             30         20         30         0          30

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION     222            229        218        228        0          228
  ---------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| ## I               |              |                  |              |
| mport Trade Matrix |              |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| **Country**        | Portugal     |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**      | Rice, Milled |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Time Period        | July/Dec     | Units:           | Metric Tons  |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Imports for:       | 2002         |                  | **2003**     |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| U.S.               | 0            | U.S.             | 0            |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Others             |              | Others           |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Spain              | 19,640       | Spain            | 24,452       |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| France             | 4,885        | Netherlands      | 2,627        |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Other EU           | 1,487        | Other EU         | 689          |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Guiana             | 26,142       | Guiana           | 22,851       |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Suriname           | 2,978        | Suriname         | 480          |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Thailand           | 961          | Uruguay          | 465          |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
|                    |              | Cuba             | 221          |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
|                    |              |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
|                    |              |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
|                    |              |                  |              |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others   | 56,093       |                  | 51,785       |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed  | 430          |                  | 1,311        |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total        | 56,523       |                  | 53,096       |
+--------------------+--------------+------------------+--------------+

+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| ## E               |              |                   |             |
| xport Trade Matrix |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Portugal     |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**      | Rice, Milled |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | July/Dec     | Units:            | Metric Tons |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Exports for:       | 2002         |                   | **2003**    |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 7            | U.S.              | 5           |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Others             |              | Others            |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Belgium            | 3,950        | Belgium           | 4,115       |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Spain              | 1,385        | Spain             | 662         |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| U.K.               | 228          | Other EU          | 170         |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Other EU           | 156          | Angola            | 84          |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Angola             | 131          |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                    |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                    |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                    |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                    |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
|                    |              |                   |             |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 5,850        |                   | 5,031       |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 29           |                   | 43          |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 5,886        |                   | 5,079       |
+--------------------+--------------+-------------------+-------------+

# Commodity Name: Corn

## Production, Supply & Distribution Table

  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                      

  **Country**             **Portugal**                                               

  **Commodity**           **Corn**                             (1000                 
                                                               HA)(1000              
                                                               TONS)                 

                          2002           Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                          USDA Official  Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                          \[Old\]        Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                         \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year Begin**                  07-2002               07-2003               07-2004

  Area Harvested          139            139        139        139        0          139

  Beginning Stocks        210            210        210        205        0          200

  Production              790            795        711        794        0          795

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports  1073           1073       1168       1300       0          1209

  Oct-Sep Imports         1060           1116       1168       1300       0          1209

  Oct-Sep Import U.S.     0              1          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            2073           2078       2089       2299       0          2204

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports  10             10         9          4          0          4

  Oct-Sep Exports         9              7          9          4          0          4

  Feed Dom. Consumption   1743           1753       1790       1985       0          1890

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  1853           1863       1900       2095       0          2000

  Ending Stocks           210            205        180        200        0          200

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      2073           2078       2089       2299       0          2204
  ----------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ## I               |             |                    |             |
| mport Trade Matrix |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Portugal    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Commodity**      | Corn        |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | July/Dec    | Units:             | Metric Tons |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Imports for:       | 2002        |                    | **2003**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 0           | U.S.               | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| France             | 289,104     | France             | 228,659     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Spain              | 40,972      | Spain              | 43,952      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Germany            | 2,757       | Germany            | 22,907      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Other EU           | 97          | Other EU           | 101         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Argentina          | 92,827      | Argentina          | 202,753     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             | Brazil             | 61,200      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 425,757     |                    | 559,572     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 432         |                    | 134         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 426,189     |                    | 559,706     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| ## E               |             |                    |              |
| xport Trade Matrix |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| **Country**        | Portugal    |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| **Commodity**      | Corn        |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Time Period        | July/Dec    | Units:             | Metric Tons  |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Exports for:       | 2002        |                    | **2003**     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| U.S.               | 0           | U.S.               | 0            |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Spain              | 7,469       | Spain              | 2,390        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Other EU           | 0           | Other EU           | 0            |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
|                    |             |                    |              |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Total for Others   | 7,469       |                    | 2,390        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Others not Listed  | 166         |                    | 138          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+
| Grand Total        | 7,635       |                    | 2,528        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+--------------+