**Symposium on the 50th Anniversary**

**of**

**Operational Numerical Weather Prediction**

14-17 June 2004\
University of Maryland\
University College Inn and Conference Center

**Co-chair: Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Centers for
Environmental Prediction**

**Co-chair: Dr. Eugenia Kalnay, Distinguished University Professor,
University of Maryland**

**[Program Committee]{.underline}**

> **Ken Campana**
>
> **Ken Carey**
>
> **R. Michael Clancy**
>
> **Lt Col Robert Falvay**
>
> **Kris Harper**
>
> **Marjorie Huntington**
>
> **Joe Irwin**
>
> **Lauren Morone**
>
> **Al Moyers**
>
> **Anders Persson**
>
> **Carl Thormeyer**
>
> **Major Jimmie Trigg**

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[Monday, June 14]{.mark}

Evening

5:00‑8:30pm Registration

**5:00pm Ice Breaker Reception - Hosted by Team NPOESS**

**6:00‑8:00pm Historical Overview of Operational NWP**

> Moderator: Jim Fleming, President, International Commission on
>
> the History of Meteorology

[Presenters]{.underline}

[Al Moyers, Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA)](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%200%20Historical%20Overview/Overview_Moyers.pdf)

Joe Irwin, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

[Kris Harper, American Meteorological Society (AMS) History
Committee](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%200%20Historical%20Overview/Overview_Harper.pdf)

[Anders Persson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological
Institute](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%200%20Historical%20Overview/Persson.pdf)

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

Morning

7:30am‑6:00pm Registration

**8:00am Welcoming Remarks**

Louis Uccellini, NCEP Director

Colonel John Lanicci, AFWA Commander

> Captain Christopher Gunderson, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
>
> Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Commanding Officer

Dean Steve Halperin, College of Computer, Mathematical and Physical

Sciences, University of Maryland

**8:20am** **Opening Remarks**

> John Jones, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, NOAA

**Session 1:** **Operational Forecasting and the JNWPU**

> Session Chair: Ronald McPherson, AMS Executive Director

8:40am Richardson\'s Forecast: What Went Wrong?

[*Peter Lynch, Assistant Director, Irish Meteorological
Service*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%201%20Operational%20Forecasting%20and%20the%20JNWPU/Lynch.pdf)

**9:05am** **Historical Round Table Discussion\***

Moderator: Ronald McPherson, AMS

[Norm Phillips, MIT (NMC/NCEP,
ret.)](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%201%20Operational%20Forecasting%20and%20the%20JNWPU/Phillips%201_0.pdf)

Fred Shuman, National Meteorological Center (NMC/NCEP ret.)

Harry E. Nicholson, FNMOC (CAPT, USN, ret.)

> Bo Doos, Global Environmental Management, Stockholm, Sweden

**\*Group Photo Opportunity**

**10:00‑10:30am Break**

**Session 2: Evolution of Supercomputers and Forecast Models**

Session Chair: Bob Plante, Raytheon (ret.)

10:30am 2.1 30 Years of Navy NWP Modeling and Supercomputers: An

Anecdotal History

[*Tom Rosmond, Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey,
CA*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%202%20%20Evolution%20of%20Supercomputers%20and%20Forecast%20Models/021.pdf)

[]{.mark}

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

10:55am 2.2 The Interplay of Computer Power, Computer Architecture, and

> Numerical Algorithms in the progress of Numerical Weather Prediction
>
> [*Anthony Hollingsworth, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
> Forecasts*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%202%20%20Evolution%20of%20Supercomputers%20and%20Forecast%20Models/022.pdf)

11:20am 2.3 The 1953 North Sea Gale in Perspective of Historical NWP
Efforts

> [*H. M. van den Dool, R.E. Kistler and S.
> Saha*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%202%20%20Evolution%20of%20Supercomputers%20and%20Forecast%20Models/023.pdf)
>
> [*NOAA/NCEP/Climate Prediction
> Center*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%202%20%20Evolution%20of%20Supercomputers%20and%20Forecast%20Models/023.pdf)

11:35am 2.4 A Historical Perspective on the Role of NWP Models in the

Prediction of Severe Local Storms

> [*Steven Weiss and Joseph Schaefer, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center,
> Norman,
> OK*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%202%20%20Evolution%20of%20Supercomputers%20and%20Forecast%20Models/024.pdf)

Afternoon

**12:00‑1:30pm Poster Discussion and Lunch**

> Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Independent Scholar/Historian of
> Science

Poster Session #1 P1.1 Trends in HPC Productivity for NWP Applications

> [*Stan Posey, HPC Applications Development,
> SGI*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P011.pdf)
>
> P1.2 NPOESS Interface Data Processing Segment Architecture and
> Software
>
> [*Kevin Souza, Chad Fox, Kerry Grant and Scott
> Turek*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P012.pdf)
>
> [*Raytheon
> Company*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P012.pdf)
>
> P1.3 A Posteriori Improvement to Background Quality Control

# [Leonid Rukhovets, SAIC and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P013.pdf) 

> P1.4 A Simulation of the Interface between Binary Fluids with
> Different Densities by Lattice Boltzmann Method

# [Jianhong Wang, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of British Columbia, Canada](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P014.pdf)

> [*Chunsheng Miao, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, P.R.
> China*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P014.pdf)

P1.5 Roots of Ensemble Forecasting

> [*John Lewis, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, Desert
> Research Institute, Reno,
> NV*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%201/P015.pdf)

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

**Session 3: Evolution of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction**

Session Chair: R. Michael Clancy, FNMOC

1:35pm 3.1 Numerical Weather Prediction at the Air Force Weather Agency

[*Mark Surmeier, AFWA Air & Space Science
Directorate*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/031.pdf)

2:00pm 3.2 NMC/NCEP Supercomputers and the Models that Consumed

Them: A Sordid Tale of Codependence

> [*Geoff DiMego, National Weather Service
> (NWS)/NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/032.pdf)

2:25pm 3.3 The Eta Model: Design, History, and Performance: What Lessons

Have We Learned?

> [*Fedor Mesinger, NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center
> (EMC),*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/033.pdf)
>
> [*and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Camp
> Springs,
> MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/033.pdf)

[]{.mark}

2:40pm 3.4 The Spectral Method: Its Impact on NWP

> [*Ferdinand Baer, Department of Meteorology, University of
> Maryland*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/034.pdf)

**2:55-3:25pm Break**

3:25pm 3.5 The Emergence of Land-surface modeling in Modern-Era

> Numerical Weather Prediction: The NCEP Experience and Collaborations
>
> [*Kenneth E. Mitchell,
> NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/035.pdf)

3:40pm 3.6 Mesoscale Weather Prediction with the RUC Hybrid Isentropic-

Sigma Coordinate Model and Data Assimilation System

> [*Stan Benjamin^1\*^, Rainer Bleck^2^, John Brown^1^, Kevin
> Brundage^1^ , DezsoDevenyi^1^ , Georg Grell^1^, Dongsoo Kim^1^ , Geoff
> Manikin^3^, Barry Schwartz^1^, Tanya Smirnova^1^, Tracy Smith^1^, and
> Steve
> Weygandt^1^*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/036.pdf)

[*^1^NOAA Research/Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder,
CO*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/036.pdf)

[*^2^Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
NM*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/036.pdf)

[*^3^NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%203%20%20Evolution%20of%20Operational%20Numerical%20Weather%20Prediction/036.pdf)

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

**Session 4: From Model Predictions to Forecasters: Then and Now**

Session Chair: Carlyle H. Wash, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

**4:00pm** **Panel Discussion\***

Moderator: Carlyle H. Wash, NPS

[Participants]{.underline}

Bob Glahn, NWS

Captain Chris Gunderson, FNMOC

Colonel John Lanicci, AFWA

Louis Uccellini, NCEP

**\*Group Photo Opportunity**

**5:00‑6:00pm Poster Discussion and Historical Exhibition**

> Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Independent Scholar/Historian of
> Science
>
> Historical Exhibit Chair: Major Jimmie Trigg, AFWA Liaison to NCEP

Poster Session #2 P2.1 Intercomparison of Global Research and
Operational Forecasts

> [*Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Rutgers
> University, Lee Byerle and Jan Paegle, University of
> Utah*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P021.pdf)
>
> P2.2 Recent Update of NCEP Operational Regional Spectral Model
>
> [*Jongil Han, RSIS at NCEP/EMC, and Hann-Ming Henry
> Juang*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P022.pdf)
>
> [*NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P022.pdf)
>
> P2.3 A Vorticity Equation for Numerical Long Range Forecasting of the
> Coriolis Parameter in the Solar System
>
> [*John C. Freeman, Jill F. Hasling, and Robert A.
> Stacy*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P023.pdf)
>
> [*Weather Research Center, Houston,
> TX*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P023.pdf)

P2.4 Stratospheric Forecasting with NOGAPS-ALPHA

> [*Douglas R. Allen, Stephen D. Eckermann, and Lawrence Coy, Naval
> Research Laboratory, Washington, DC; Timothy F. Hogan and Young-Joon
> Kim, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey,
> CA*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P024.pdf)
>
> P2.5 From Flatland to Himalayas: The Historical Orogeny of Model
> Orography,
>
> [*Torsten Duffy,
> FNMOC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P025.pdf)

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

P2.6 NOGAPS-ALPHA: A Prototype High-Altitude Global NWP Model

> [*Stephen P. Eckermann, John P. McCormack, Lawrence Coy, and John
> McCormack, Middle Atmosphere Physics Section,
> NRL*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P026.pdf)
>
> [*Douglas Allen, Middle Atmosphere Dynamics Section, NRL, Washington
> DC; Tim Hogan and Young-Joon Kim, Global Modeling Section, NRL,
> Monterey, CA*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P026.pdf)
>
> P2.7 The Interactive Gridded Analysis and Display System (IGrADS) for
> the U.S. Armed Forces
>
> [*R. Bruce Telfeyan and Jeremy J. Wesely, AFWA, Offutt Air
> Force*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P027.pdf)
>
> [*Base,
> Nebraska*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P027.pdf)
>
> P2.8 Implementing and Evaluating the Weather Research and Forecast
> (WRF) Model at the NWS WFO Jacksonville, Florida
>
> [*Pat Welsh and Art Wildman, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office,
> Jacksonville,
> FL*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P028.pdf)
>
> [*Brent Shaw, John Smart, Jennifer Mahoney, and Mike
> Kay*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P028.pdf)
>
> [*NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder,
> CO*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P028.pdf)

P2.9 The NRL Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM)

> [*Stephen D. Eckermann, NRL, Washington
> DC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P029.pdf)
>
> [*Jun Ma and Dave Broutman, Computational Physics,
> Inc.,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P029.pdf)
>
> [*Springfield,
> VA*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P029.pdf)
>
> P2.10 GEMS: A Revolutionary Observing System to Support the Next 50
> Years of Numerical Weather Prediction
>
> [*John Manobianco, Randolph J. Evans, and Jonathan L. Case, and Joseph
> Dreher, ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach,
> FL*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P210.pdf)
>
> P2.11 Ocean Hindcasts and Simulations from the new NCEP Global Coupled
> Forecast System

[*Sudhir Nadiga, Jiande Wang, Wanqui Wang (SAIC
at*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P211.pdf)

[*NCEP/EMC), and Suranjana Saha, Hua-Lu Pan
and*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P211.pdf)

[*David Behringer, NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P211.pdf)

> P2.12 Simulation of the Tropical Air-Sea Coupled System in the New
> NCEP coupled Forecast Model

[*Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Wanqui Wang (SAIC
at*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P212.pdf)

[*NCEP/EMC), and Suranjana Saha, Hua-Lu Pan, Glenn White
and*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P212.pdf)

[*David Behringer, NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%202/P212.pdf)

[Tuesday, June 15]{.mark}

Evening

**6:00pm** **Ice Breaker Reception -- Hosted by Northrop Grumman
Corporation**

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

Morning

7:30am‑6:00pm Registration

**Session 5: From Model Predictions to Forecasters: Then and Now
(cont.)**

Session Chair: Bill Bonner, NMC/NCEP (ret.)

8:00am 5.1 A Vision for Environmental Services as Numerical Weather

Prediction Enters the Next 50 Years

*Jack Hayes, National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science*

*and Technology (Colonel, USAF, ret.)*

8:25am 5.2 A Customer Perspective on the Evolution of Numerical Weather

Prediction as Applied to Naval Operations ‑ The Real Story

> [*Carl Thormeyer,
> FNMOC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/052.pdf)

8:50am 5.3 Evolution of the Relationship between Weather Forecasters and

Numerical Models over the Last 50 Years

> [*James E. Hoke*,
> *NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/053.pdf)

9:05am 5.4 Initial State Sensitivity Experiments in a Real Data Model

> [*Celeste A. Saulo, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Lee A.
> Byerle, Jennifer C. Roman, Jan Paegle, and Julia Nogues-Paegle,
> University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
> UT*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/054.pdf)

9:20am 5.5 HPC Operations

[*Michael Schichtel and Peter
Manousos*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/055.pdf)

[*Hydrometeorological Prediction Center,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP *](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/055.pdf)

9:35am 5.6 30 Years of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting at Fleet

> Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
>
> [*Paul Wittmann and R. Michael Clancy,
> FNMOC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/056.pdf)

9:50am 5.7 Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction

Center

[*Joseph Sienkiewicz, Scott Prosise, and Anthony
Crutch*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/057.pdf)

[*NOAA/NWS/NCEP Ocean Prediction
Center*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/057.pdf)

10:05am 5.8 Objective Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction
Model

> Output B A Perspective Based on Verification of Temperature and
> Precipitation Guidance

[*J. Paul Dallavalle and Valery J.
Dagostaro*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/058.pdf)

[*Meteorological Development
Laboratory*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/058.pdf)

[*Office of Science and Technology,
NOAA/NWS*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%205%20%20From%20Model%20Predictions%20to%20Forecasters%20Then%20&%20Now%20cont/058.pdf)

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

**10:20‑10:50am Break**

**Session 6:** **Evolution of Data Assimilation**

Session Chair: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland

10:50am 6.1 A History of the U.S. Navy's Numerical Objective Analysis
and

Data Assimilation

[*Edward H. Barker,
NRL*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/061.pdf)

11:15am 6.2 Maturation of Data Assimilation Over the Last Two Decades

[*John Derber,
NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/062.pdf)

11:40am 6.3 Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

[*Arthur Y. Hou and Sara Q.
Zhang*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/063.pdf)

[*Global Modeling and Assimilation
Office*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/063.pdf)

[*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/063.pdf)

11:55am 6.4 Introduction of Temperature Observation of Radiosonde in
Place

of Geopotential Height to the Global Three-dimensional

Variational Data Assimilation System in JMA

[*Akio
Narui*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/064.pdf)

> [*Numerical Prediction Division, Japanese Meteorological
> Agency*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%206%20%20Evolution%20of%20Data%20Assimilation/064.pdf)

12:10pm 6.5 Impact Experiments on GMAO Data Assimilation and Forecast

Systems with MODIS Winds during MOWSAP

> *Lars Peter Riishojgaard and Yanqiu Zhu*
>
> *Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC*

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

Afternoon

**12:25‑2:00pm** **Poster Discussion and Lunch**

> Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Independent Scholar/Historian of
> Science

Poster Session #3 P3.1 Application of Data Assimilation Techniques for
Space Weather

[*Tim Fuller-Rowell, Space Environment
Center*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P031.pdf)

> P3.2 Assimilation of GPS occultation data into the NRL Atmospheric
> Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS)
>
> *Gerald E. Nedoluha^1^, Axel von Engeln^2^, Nancy L. Baker, Clay B.
> Blankenship and, Edward H. Barker^3^*
>
> *^1^Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, ^2^Institute of
> Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany*
>
> *^3^Naval Research Laboratory*
>
> P3.3 Applications of Data Assimilation in Improving Atmospheric
> Modeling

[*Zhaoxia Pu, Department of Meteorology, University of
Utah,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P033.pdf)

[*Salt Lake City,
UT*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P033.pdf)

> P3.4 The Local Ensemble Kalman Filter of the University of Maryland
>
> [*Istvan Szunyogh, Eric Kostelich^1^, Gyorgyi Gyarmati, Brian R. Hunt,
> Edward Ott, Aleksey V. Zimin, Eugenia Kalnay, Dhanurjay Patil, and
> James A. Yorke, University of Maryland and ^1^Arizona State
> University*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P034.pdf)

P3.5 A Modular, Efficient design of the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter

> *Eric Kostelich, Arizona State University, and Istvan Szunyogh,
> Gyorgyi Gyarmati, Brian R. Hunt, Edward Ott, Aleksey V. Zimin, Eugenia
> Kalnay, Dhanurjay Patil, and James A. Yorke, University of Maryland*

P3.6 Extension of Ensemble Kalman Filtering to 4-dimensions

> [*Tim Sauer, George Mason University, and B.R. Hunt, J.A.Yorke, A.V.
> Zimin, E. Ott, E.J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay,
> D.J. Patil, University of
> Maryland*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P036.pdf)
>
> P3.7 On the Importance of the Precipitation Mass Sink In Tropical
> Cyclones and Other Heavily Precipitating Systems
>
> [*Gary Lackmann and Richard
> Yablonsky*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P037.pdf)
>
> [*North Carolina State
> University*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%203/P037.pdf)

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

Afternoon

**Session 7:** **Evolution of Data Assimilation (cont.) and Ensemble
Forecasting**

Session Chair: Steve Tracton, Office of Naval Research (ONR)

2:00pm 7.1 Ensemble Forecasting: History and Future

[*Eugenia Kalnay, University of
Maryland*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/071.pdf)

2:25pm 7.2 Present Status and Future Directions for Ensemble Forecasting
at

NCEP

> [*Zoltan Toth, Jeff Mcqueen, Yuejian Zhu, Richard Wobus, Jun Du and
> Dingchen Hou,
> NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/072.pdf)
>
> [*Mozheng Wei, Visiting UCAR Scientist at
> NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/072.pdf)

2:40pm 7.3 Applications of Ensemble Prediction B A Historical
Perspective

[*Steven Tracton,
ONR*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/073.pdf)

2:55pm 7.4 The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite

> System: Delivering Global Data for Improved Numerical Weather
> Prediction
>
> [*John D. Cunningham^1^, John M. Haas^2^, Robert S. Turek^3^, Craig S.
> Nelson^4^*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/074.pdf)
>
> [*^1^System Program Director, NPOESS Integrated Program
> Office*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/074.pdf)
>
> [*^2^The Aerospace Corporation, ^3^Raytheon
> Company,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/074.pdf)
>
> [*^4^General Dynamics Advanced Information
> Systems*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/074.pdf)

3:10pm 7.5 Tests of an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Mesoscale Data

Assimilation

[*Fuqing Zhang, Zhiyong Meng and Altug
Aksoy*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/075.pdf)

[*Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M
University*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/075.pdf)

3:25pm 7.6 Assimilation of Satellite Cloud Data into the GMAO Finite-

> volume Data Assimilation System using Variational Parameter Estimation

[*Arlindo da Silva, Global Modeling and Assimilation
Office,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/076.pdf)

[*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/076.pdf)

> [*Peter Norris, Goddard Earth Science and Technology
> Center,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/076.pdf)

[*  University of Maryland, Baltimore County,
MD*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%207%20%20Evol%20of%20Data%20Assimilation%20cont%20&%20Ensemble%20Forecasting/076.pdf)

**3:40‑4:10pm Break**

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

**4:10‑6:00pm Poster Discussion and Historical Exhibit**

> Poster Session Chair: Kris Harper, Independent Scholar/Historian of
> Science
>
> Historical Exhibit Chair: Major Jimmie Trigg, AFWA Liaison to NCEP

Poster Session #4 P4.1 Intercomparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP
Global

> Ensemble Forecast Systems
>
> [*Zoltan Toth, NCEP, Roberto Buizza, European Centre
> for*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)
>
> [*Medium-Range Weather
> Forecasts*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)
>
> [*P. L. Houtekamer and Gerald Pelleri, Meteorological Service
> of*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)
>
> [*Canada,*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)
>
> [*Mozheng Wei, UCAR Visiting Scientist,
> NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)
>
> [*Yuejian Zhu,
> NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P041.pdf)

 

> P4.2 Hybrid Ensemble Predicting System: A New Ensembling Approach

[*Jun Du, EMC, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and
SAIC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P042.pdf)

> P4.3 Medium Range Predictability Associated with Anomalous Zonal Flows
> over Western North America during Winter

[*Lee A. Byerle and Jan Paegle, University of
Utah*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P043.pdf)

> P4.4 Week 2 Forecasting Skill Characteristics and Flow Regime
> Association
>
> [*Peiqun Zang, National Meteorological Center,
> China*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P044.PDF)

[*Wilbur Chen, Climate Prediction Center,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP *](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P044.PDF)

P4.5 Flow and Regime Dependent Mesoscale Predictability

> [*Fuqing Zhang, Chris Snyder and Rich Rotunno, Texas A&M
> University*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P045.pdf)
>
> P4.6 Improvements in Extended-Range Temperature and Probability of
> Precipitation Guidance
>
> [*Kevin Carroll and Joseph Maloney, III, Meteorological Development
> Laboratory,
> NOAA/NWS*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P046.pdf)
>
> P4.7 Improving Predictability of Seasonal Forecasting by NCEP Regional
> Spectral Model
>
> [*Jun Wang, SAIC at NCEP/EMC, and Hann-Ming Henry Juang,
> NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P047.pdf)
>
> P4.8 Forecasting Week 2 Forecasting Skill
>
> [*Wilbur Y. Chen, Climate Prediction
> Center*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P048.pdf)

[Wednesday, June 16]{.mark}

> P4.9 The Numerical Schemes on the Base of the Hermitian Approximation
>
> [*Ireneusz Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw,
> Poland*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Poster%20Session%204/P049.pdf)

Evening

**6:00pm Conference Banquet\* -- Co-hosted by SAIC and Raytheon**

**Keynote Speaker: Norm Phillips ‑ \"*NWP and the Appalachian Storm***

***of November 1950*\"**

**\*Group Photo Opportunity**

[Thursday, June 17]{.mark}

Morning

7:30am‑12:00pm Registration

**Session 8: Long‑Range Forecasting**

Session Chair: Carl Thormeyer, FNMOC

8:30am 8.1 Notes on NWP and the History of Long‑Range Forecasting

> [*Don Gilman, NCEP/CPC (ret) and Huug van den Dool,
> NOAA/NCEP/CPC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%208%20%20Long%20Range%20Forecasting/081.pdf)

8:55am 8.2 Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: A Personal Retrospective of
the

Last 30 Years (1975-2004), and Conjectures about the Future

[*J. Shukla, George Mason
University*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%208%20%20Long%20Range%20Forecasting/082.pdf)

9:20am 8.3 The Infinite Forecast

*Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/GFDL*

9:45am 8.4 The NWP "Breakthrough" for Climate Analysis Center Monthly

Predictions in 1981

> [*Robert E. Livezey, Climate Services Division, NOAA/NWS Office of
> Climate, Water and Weather
> Services*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%208%20%20Long%20Range%20Forecasting/084.pdf)

10:00am 8.5 How Long Can an Atmospheric Model Predict?

> [*Peter C. Chu and Leonid M. Ivanov, NPS, Monterey,
> CA*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%208%20%20Long%20Range%20Forecasting/085.pdf)

10:15am 8.6 The Long Journey of NWS Medium-Range Prediction

[*Edward O\'Lenic, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction
Center*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%208%20%20Long%20Range%20Forecasting/086.pdf)

**10:30 - 11:00am Break**

**Session 9: The Future of NWP and Its Applications**

Session Chair: Louis Uccellini, NCEP

11:00am 9.1 Global Weather Prediction - Possible developments in the
Next

Decades

> [*Lennart Bengtsson, Max-Planck-Institut für
> Meteorologie*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/091.pdf)

11:25am 9.2 Fifteen Years of Research in the Numerical Prediction of
Storm-

Scale Weather: Is Operational Implementation Very Far Away?

> [*Kelvin K. Droegemeier, School of Meteorology and Center for Analysis
> and Prediction of Storms, University of
> Oklahoma*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/092.pdf)

[Thursday, June 17]{.mark}

11:50am 9.3 Isentropic Diagnostic Assessments and Modeling Strategies

Appropriate to the Development of Weather and Climate Models

> [*Donald R. Johnson, Emeritus Professor, University of Wisconsin, NCEP
> Special Project
> Scientist*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/093.pdf)

**12:05-1:30pm Lunch - [Keynote Speaker Jim
Howcroft](../Extended%20Abstracts/Jim%20Howcroft.pdf) -- Sponsored by
Cray**

**Ceremony Honoring George Cressman\***

**\*Group Photo Opportunity**

**Session 9: The Future of NWP and Its Applications (cont.)**

1:30pm 9.4 Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction with the WRF Model

[*Ying-Hwa Kuo, Joseph. B. Klemp, and John
Michalakes*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/094.pdf)

[*Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
Division*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/094.pdf)

[*National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder,
CO*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/094.pdf)

1:45pm 9.5 The Next Generation Flexible Global Atmospheric Model

[*Hann-Ming Henry Juang,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/095.pdf)

2:00pm 9.6 Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)

[*Bob Gall,
NCAR*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/096.pdf)

2:15pm 9.7 An Evolutionary Approach to Nonhydrostatic Modeling

[*Zavisa Janjic, Tom Black, Matthew Pyle, Hui-ya Chuang,
Eric*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/097.pdf)

[*Rogers, and Geoff DiMego,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/097.pdf)

2:30pm 9.8 Application of Numerical Models in the Forecast Process --
From

National Centers to the Local Weather Forecast Office (WFO)

[*David W. Reynolds, NWS WFO, San Francisco Bay
Area*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/098.pdf)

2:45pm 9.9 Translating Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction into

Official NWS Forecasts

> [*David P. Ruth, Meteorological Development Laboratory, Office of
> Science and Technology,
> NOAA/NWS*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/099.pdf)

3:00pm 9.10 Emergence of the Earth System Modeling Framework

*[Cecelia DeLuca,
NCAR](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/910.pdf)*

3:15pm 9.11 The Future of NWP

[*Steve Lord,
NCEP*](../Extended%20Abstracts/Session%209%20The%20Future%20of%20NWP%20and%20Its%20Applications/911.pdf)

[Thursday, June 17]{.mark}

**3:45pm Closing Remarks**

> *Louis Uccellini, NCEP; Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland*