Voluntary Report - Public distribution

**Date:** 6/12/2008

**GAIN Report Number:** CH8049

CH8049

**China, Peoples Republic of**

**Agricultural Situation**

**Water Situation in the North China Plain**

**2008**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)William Westman

AgBeijing

**Prepared by:**

Renée Vassilos, Tanya Franke, and Jorge Sanchez

**Report Highlights:**

Water resources play a major role in China's incredible economic growth
and rapid development. Over the last 20 years, the speed in which this
growth has taken place has led to the current crisis facing China: the
overexploitation and pollution of water resources. In the North China
Plain, groundwater overexploitation is the most pressing problem because
it is unsustainable. It is difficult to say with exact certainty how
agricultural production will be impacted by water scarcity and
pollution. Most likely, agricultural imports will be needed. The type
and volume of goods that will be imported depend on the policy
initiatives implemented by the government.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Beijing \[CH1\]

\[CH\]

Table of Contents

[Introduction 3](#introduction)

[Overview of China's Water Situation
3](#overview-of-chinas-water-situation)

[REGIONAL FOCUS: North China Plain 4](#regional-focus-north-china-plain)

[A. Agriculture Background 5](#a.-agriculture-background)

[B. Water Resources 7](#b.-water-resources)

[1. Ground Water 8](#ground-water)

[2. Surface Water 9](#surface-water)

[C. Irrigation Water Use 9](#c.-irrigation-water-use)

[D. Water Quality Issues 10](#d.-water-quality-issues)

[E. Water Management 10](#e.-water-management)

[Impact on Agricultural Production and Trade
11](#impact-on-agricultural-production-and-trade)

[A. Policy 11](#a.-policy)

[B. World Prices and Input Cost 12](#b.-world-prices-and-input-cost)

[C. Science 12](#c.-science)

[Conclusion 12](#conclusion)

# Introduction

Water resources play a major role in China's incredible economic growth
and rapid development. Over the last 20 years, the speed in which this
growth has taken place has led to the current crisis facing China: the
overexploitation and pollution of water resources.

In agriculture, the issues of water availability and quality have
serious ramifications for production levels. This report will focus on
the water-scarce, agriculture intense North China Plain. The North China
Plain includes three provinces and the municipalities of Beijing and
Tianjin. The focus of this report is on how the water scarcity and
pollution issues in the plain will impact agricultural production in
this region.

# Overview of China's Water Situation

*Boats in the South, Buses in the North*

China's total water supply is the fifth largest in the world; however,
as it is needed to supply the world's largest population, per capita
water supply in China is among the world's lowest. The annual water
resources available in China are 2,800 billion m^3^, or approximately 7
percent of total world supply. However China which represents 20 percent
of global population, produces more food -- 20 percent of global
production - than any other nation in the world. This relatively low
water supply is further stressed by its uneven distribution. Most of
China's water resources are located in the south. According to the
Ministry of Agriculture, southern China has 80 percent of the country's
total water supply but only 36 percent of the total farmland. In
contrast, northern China has less than 18 percent of the total water
supply, but 64 percent of the country's farmland, and a population of
approximately 500 million (37 percent of total). The unbalanced
distribution of water resources results in a very tight supply in
northern China (see Figure 1). China currently has approximately 140
million hectares of cultivated land compared with the U.S., which has
165 million hectares of arable land (CIA, 2008). This arable land area
is decreasing however, as a result of increasing industrial development
including transportation networks, expanding urban areas, and spreading
desertification.

> **Figure 1: Map of China's Surface Water Resources**
>
> ![](media/image2.jpeg){width="4.180555555555555in"
> height="3.511111111111111in"}
>
> Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1999

Northern China has less water than southern China but a greater
percentage of arable land and is therefore, the area where most of the
corn and wheat are produced. Rice, the largest grain crop, is produced
in the south due to the available water resources. The majority of this
agricultural production occurs with the aid of significant irrigation.
In the past, agriculture received priority for water resources due to
the government's food security policy. However, a rapidly growing urban
population and an expanding industrial sector, aided by an industrial
growth policy supported by the government, have changed the dynamics of
water usage. Urban and industrial consumers are rapidly increasing their
water demands. This has led to increasing disputes regarding the
allocation of the tight water supply amongst the main water consumers in
northern China: agriculture, industry, and the domestic sector (see
Figure 2).

> **Figure 2:**
>
> ![](media/image3.wmf){width="4.520138888888889in"
> height="3.441666666666667in"}

Growth in water demand, more frequent droughts (attributed by some to
global warming), and a stagnant water supply, all contribute to the
overexploitation of water resources of both ground and surface water.
This overexploitation of water resources in northern China has led to
concern of a pending water crisis.

This potential water crisis coupled with the gradual decrease in water
allocated for agriculture may have serious consequences for China's most
productive agriculture region for wheat and corn production, the north.
Within northern China, the North China Plain is the most productive
agricultural area and the most water stressed.

# REGIONAL FOCUS: North China Plain

*China's Breadbasket*

The North China Plain (NCP) covers an area of 320,000km^2^, roughly the
size of New Mexico, and is inhabited by 200 million people (New Mexico:
2 million) (Kendy, 2003). The NCP area includes: Heibei, Henan, and
Shandong Provinces and the municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin (see
Figure 3). In the NCP, there are several water resource problems.
Groundwater overexploitation is the most pressing because it is
unsustainable. There is also surface water overexploitation, water
pollution generated from heavy industrialization and agriculture
production, and, in certain areas, salt water intrusion in aquifers and
land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal. The NCP has restricted
rainfall, depends on groundwater for 60 percent of its water supply (an
unsustainable level), and is one of the most densely populated and
developed areas of China. Together, this has resulted in continually
increasing demands on the already highly constrained water supply. The
NCP has the most severe water depletion in China and will continue to
face severe water scarcity issues if the government does not act quickly
to secure water efficiency gains where possible in agricultural and
industrial water use.

> **Figure 3: North China Plain**
>
> ![](media/image4.wmf){width="2.2874015748031495in"
> height="2.7818897637795277in"}![](media/image5.png){width="1.4133858267716535in"
> height="1.9799212598425198in"}

## 

## 

## A. Agriculture Background 

Agricultural production in the North China Plain region includes grains,
cotton, and a variety of vegetables, fruits, and cash crops (e.g.,
peanuts and fresh flowers) (WB, 2000). Agricultural production in the
NCP is the main support for China's food self-sufficiency policy with 50
percent of wheat, more than 50 percent of vegetables and fruit, and 33
percent of corn grown in the plain. The majority of these crops depend
on irrigation, which means that pending water scarcity issues must be
addressed or the production of these crops will be severely compromised.
The percentage of land that is irrigated is shown below in figure 3 by
type of crop. Sweet potatoes and soybeans are the only crops where
significantly less than 50 percent of the field area is irrigated.

> **Figure 3:**
>
> ![](media/image6.wmf){width="4.757638888888889in"
> height="2.9854166666666666in"}

In order to meet the growing demand for grains and improve their
incomes, farmers in the NCP rely on irrigation to double crop. Double
cropping includes an irrigated winter wheat crop harvested in early June
followed by a corn or cotton crop harvested in early September. In
addition to the double cropping, farmers also inter-crop. Typically,
they plant a second crop within their wheat crop field, usually a more
profitable cash crop such as peanuts, in order to diversify production
and increase overall income (see Figure 4). Farmers are also producing
higher value fruit and vegetable crops, often using more efficient drip
and sprinkler irrigation systems where groundwater is available[^1].
These are often produced in simple green houses to maximize yields.
Without irrigation, farmers would be unable to double-crop or produce
enough fruits and vegetables to justify the additional fertilizer and
labor expenses.

> **Figure 4: Example of inter-cropping**
>
> ![](media/image7.jpeg){width="3.5555555555555554in"
> height="2.6666666666666665in"}
>
> Source: Field Visit, Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia May
> 2008

The impact of water scarcity has not *yet* affected aggregate
agricultural production. The three provinces in the North China Plain
have not seen a decrease in grain production over the period 2002-2006.
As the most heavily irrigated crop, wheat production in the North China
Plain is entirely dependent on irrigation and thus, any water shortages
would most likely be seen through lower grain output figures (see Figure
5) (Lohmar and Wang, 2002).

**Figure 5:**

> ![](media/image8.wmf){width="3.109722222222222in"
> height="2.4756944444444446in"}

## B. Water Resources 

The North China Plain averages 18.9 in (480 mm) of annual precipitation
but this can vary from 300 to 1,000 mm. The majority, 60-80 percent, of
annual precipitation falls in the summer months. Due to variable
rainfall patterns and recent droughts, a large share of the cropland for
most types of crops grown in the NCP is irrigated (see Figure 3 above).
Corn is typically rainfed but in drought years it is irrigated with
either ground or surface water. Consequently, ground and surface water
are the most common sources of irrigation water during 'normal' years.
As in the rest of the nation, the NCP faces increasing competition for
its tight water supply. Beijing and Tianjin are two of the fastest
growing cities in the nation and their water demands are growing at an
equally rapid pace.

Two-thirds of the total water supply in China is used for agricultural
production (see Figure 2). In the North China Plain, groundwater[^2] is
the mostly widely used water source. Reflected in Figures 6 and 7 below,
China as a whole has a more abundant supply of surface water (Figure 6),
but in northern China groundwater is in greater supply and thus,
provides a much larger share of the water used for irrigation (Figure
7). This has led to the overuse of groundwater, which is proving to be
unsustainable. Many Chinese officials within the North China Plain
reference the forthcoming South-to-North water transfer project as a
solution to the pending crisis. The middle route is expected to begin
delivery of 13 billion m^3^ of water in late 2008 for municipal and
industrial use in Beijing, Tianjin Municipalities, Hebei, Henan, and
Hubei Provinces from the Yangtze River in the South (MWR, 2004).
However, the cost of the water is too high for agricultural users. To
remedy this situation, officials have suggested that it will free
available water for agricultural uses. Due to the rapidly expanding
demands of the cities and municipalities in the North China Plain and
the overexploitation which is currently occurring in the region, Post
does not anticipate that the water supply from the South-to-North water
transfer project will significantly increase the water available for
agricultural use.

> **Figure 6:**
>
> ![](media/image9.wmf){width="4.927083333333333in"
> height="3.2041666666666666in"}
>
> **Figure 7:**
>
> ![](media/image10.wmf){width="4.938888888888889in" height="3.16875in"}

### 

### 1. Ground Water

Groundwater is an available source of water for irrigation in the NCP.
Farmers prefer ground water for irrigation because this allows them to
double crop their land. Wells are typically dug by farmers themselves
though private operators have become increasingly present because of the
growing costs associated with drilling deeper and deeper wells. The
deeper wells are necessary as the more shallow aquifers are running dry
as a result of unregulated withdrawal by urban and industrial consumers.
The cumulative effect of farmers digging deeper wells and urban dwellers
consuming larger amounts of water have reduced the amount of time
available for the groundwater to recharge. In many areas of the NCP,
groundwater tables are dropping at a rate greater than 1 meter per year,
which many water specialists have extrapolated to be an unsustainable
rate. The impact of overexploitation is not limited to a decrease in
available water, however. Falling water tables also cause land
subsidence and water quality problems. Moreover, certain areas near the
coast face salt water intrusion as the water tables fall below sea
level.

### 

### 2. Surface Water

Surface water resources on the NCP flow from three river basins: the Hai
River in the North, Huai River in the South, and the Yellow River in the
middle. Within the NCP, the supply of water from these rivers is
distributed through irrigation districts. Farmers are charged by the
quantity of mu irrigated (15 mu is equivalent to one hectare), not by
the volume of water received. The NCP is the downstream region for the
three rivers and as demand has increased on the upstream portions,
rivers flows have decreased leading farmers in the NCP to exploit
available ground water supplies even more heavily.

## C. Irrigation Water Use

The majority of farmers in the NCP do not use water efficiently for
irrigation. Many factors contribute to this inefficient water use
including: inefficient water delivery methods, the low cost of water,
the high cost of drip and sprinkler systems, and a lack of education.
Surface water is delivered through canals running alongside fields
where, during the irrigation season, water is available 4-5 times.
Farmers use a flood irrigation method when water is delivered through
canals (see Figure 8). This is a highly inefficient method of
irrigation. However, the design of this canal system makes it very
difficult for farmers to adopt more efficient irrigation techniques such
as drip or sprinkler systems. These technologies would require
off-stream storage for the water in areas where very little, if any,
land is available. With water only available 4-5 times during an
irrigation season and having little knowledge on irrigation best
practices, farmers simply take all that is available to them when there
is water in the canal. Also, farmers are charged for surface water
irrigated, not for the volume of water applied, which further
discourages efficient water application.

> **Figure 8: Flood Irrigation**
>
> ![](media/image11.jpeg){width="3.0076388888888888in"
> height="2.2583333333333333in"}
>
> Source: Field Visit, Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia May
> 2008

Groundwater for irrigation use is different than surface water. Ground
water is delivered when farmers need it which allows them, if funds are
available, to purchase more efficient drip or sprinkler irrigation
systems to apply water according to their crop requirements. Farmers pay
the cost of electricity or diesel used to pump groundwater, not the true
cost of water. However, the price does take into account its scarcity
because pumping costs increase with the depth of the wells. According to
a survey conducted by the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy and the
University of California, Davis in Hebei Province, as water tables fall,
the share of cash crops planted increases. The survey showed that a drop
in the water table depth from 4.7 to 79 meters resulted in the share of
cash crops increasing from 13 to 41 percent (Wang et al., 2007). This
demonstrates that farmers alter their production decisions based on
higher water prices (in the form of higher electricity/diesel costs
associated with pumping from deeper wells). Cash crops also provide
greater income and allow farmers the opportunity to purchase the more
efficient drip and sprinkler irrigation systems. It is encouraging that
farmers are responding to price incentives but this is only occurring in
small areas of the NCP and does not mitigate the overexploitation of
water resources.

The inefficient use of water leaves considerable room for water
production gains. If these inefficiencies were addressed, farmers would
have a more reliable water supply. A more reliable water supply might
compensate for reductions in total water supply as far as impacting
agricultural production. The NCP is home to millions of poor farmers
with little education so the initiative to support changes in irrigation
water use will have to come from the government.

## 

## D. Water Quality Issues

The pollution of China's water resources is a critical issue. Untreated
industrial and municipal water are the main sources of pollutants that
are severely affecting China's major rivers and, in some areas, ground
water supplies. Agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides,
along with human and animal waste also contribute to polluted water.
These pollutants have the greatest impact on humans causing cancer,
birth defects, and spreading water borne diseases (Larmer, 2008).

Water quality in China is measured by a Grade system, I-V. Grade I
represents drinking water and Grade V is unfit for any use without
treatment, provided treatment is possible. Among the 27 lakes and
reservoirs monitored by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in
2004, none met the Grade I standard, only two met the Grade II standard,
five met the Grade III standard, four met the Grade IV standard, and 6
met the Grade V standard (3 of which were large lakes) (WB, 2007). It is
important to note that irrigation water for many crops (vegetables are
the main exception) can safely be irrigated with Grade III and,
depending on the crop, Grade IV water. Thus, agricultural users have
more water resources available compared with municipal users. Despite
the greater available water resources, annual agricultural losses due to
water scarcity and water pollution are still very large. Estimates of
the losses range from \$8.2 billion (Chinese news media estimate) to
\$24 billion (World Bank estimate) (Turner, 2006).

The government has begun taking pollution seriously with a recent pledge
to allocate \$200 billion annually towards the environment. An important
element in its new efforts must be the enforcement of existing laws
against industrial polluters; this may dampen economic growth but water
is a nonrenewable resource. Without it, economic growth would be
challenging.

## E. Water Management 

Water is difficult for all nations to manage simply due to its nature;
it is difficult to monitor and measure use, complicated to assign usage
and/or ownership rights, and neither supply nor demand remains static.
In China, at the *national* government level alone there are 6 separate
agencies involved in different aspects of water: policy, development of
resources, irrigation, groundwater levels, environment, and
price-setting. There is an even greater number of agencies involved at
the provincial, city, and village levels. In the case of irrigation, the
Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) and the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA)
work together to develop local delivery plans and disseminate water
saving technology. The MWR is also responsible for the creation and
execution of water policy, including the pricing and allocation of water
resources (Lohmar et al., 2003). The management of water also differs by
type - surface versus ground water.

Surface water is allocated and delivered to villages by irrigation
districts (IDs). The IDs are allotted their total water supplies through
the major river conservancy commissions, which have 'control' of the
entire river flow as it passes through all provinces. The price of water
for irrigation is very low and is determined by Local Price Bureaus
under the guidance of the National Price Bureau. At such a low price,
the IDs are under funded and thus, irrigation infrastructure is not well
maintained. Furthermore, the irrigation districts have little incentive
to improve delivery times and volume because they have no control over
fees (Lohmar et al., 2008). Improvements in surface water management
would best be made at the local level where potential efficiency gains
are the largest.

Ground water is managed at the village level with no communication
between consumers in different villages or towns who are all withdrawing
from the same aquifer. In the past, all pumps were owned collectively.
However, over the last twenty years, the number of privately owned wells
has increased with little repercussions as, technically, all water is
state-owned (Lohmar et al., 2008). Essentially, this means that there is
no control over ground water pumping. With ground water tables falling
rapidly, the owners of privately owned wells may pump themselves out of
a market unless the government decides to take countervailing action
soon.

## 

# Impact on Agricultural Production and Trade

There are a number of factors that will influence how water scarcity
impacts agricultural production in the future, including China's
policies regarding water, the environment, and food security, commodity
market prices, production costs, and science. China has a history of
remarkable achievements; its incredible economic growth over the last
thirty years is the most recent example. Thus, it is difficult to say
with exact certainty how agricultural production will react to the
various factors. China may be able to mitigate the anticipated water
crisis and its impact on agricultural production.

It can, however, be said with certainty that agricultural production
inputs, such as arable land and water, are becoming increasingly scarce
and the quality increasingly lower. While recovery is possible, to a
certain extent, demand is continually increasing and applying constant
pressure to the food supply. Most likely, agricultural imports will help
relieve this pressure. The type and volume of goods that will be
imported depend on the policy initiatives the government implements.
Global market prices for commodities and input prices (oil, water,
labor) will also influence China's production. And finally, science has
a major role to play in China's future agricultural output. There remain
many efficiency gains possible with the prudent application of
agricultural inputs and a commitment to agricultural research and
development.

## 

## A. Policy

In 1994, the Chinese government raised grain support prices, which
shifted production away from soybeans. As a result, soybean production
decreased, demand continued to increase, and China shifted from being a
net exporter to a net importer of soybeans (Brown, 2001). The U.S. was
able to fill the unmet demand and in 2007, U.S. soybeans exported to
China totaled over \$4 billion. Government policy decisions have a
significant impact on China's agricultural production and due to the
large population and growing demand for food, their decisions also
impact the world agricultural trade market.

Grain production is currently being encouraged through minimum support
payments to support the food security policy. Grains require large
amounts of water to produce. If government policy restricts irrigation
water use due to increasing scarcity they may also remove the minimum
support payments and relax the food security policy. Production would
shift to alternative crops which may include fruits and vegetables. On
the global market, this would result in an increase in the demand for
grains. The added fruit and vegetable production might be absorbed by
the growing domestic demand or increase global market supplies.

Environmental concerns are rising and fertilizer is a pollutant that is
contaminating water resources. Fruits and vegetables require greater
amounts of fertilizer than grains. If the government implements a policy
to restrict fertilizer use, there might be a shift toward the production
of less fertilizer intensive crops such as grains. This would increase
the production of grains and world market supplies.

## 

## B. World Prices and Input Cost

World grain prices significantly influence production decisions. Grains
are water intensive and thus, very expensive to produce in China when
the *true* value of water is incorporated into the costs of production.
However, if world grain prices continue to increase, the high domestic
cost of producing grains, including the cost of water, may justify the
continual domestic production of grains.

The cost of water as an agricultural input has increased for those
farmers who use ground water drawn from deep wells. These farmers have
reacted by shifting production to higher-value crops such as fruits and
vegetables (see the section entitled "Irrigation Water Use" above). If
the government implements policies to increase the cost of water for
irrigation, this would suggest that an even larger number of farmers
would shift their production to higher-value crops thus, creating a
demand on the world market for grains. As many farmers currently face
very low water charges, a price increase of as little as 10 percent may
cause a significant and swift reaction in production decisions.

## C. Science

Science has the potential to play a major role in preventing the water
scarcity crisis predicted to hit China. There are vast water
productivity gains possible in agriculture, the largest water consuming
industry, with on-time irrigation water application, more efficient
irrigation systems, use of higher yielding and drought-resistant seed
varieties, and improved knowledge of water and fertilizer use on the
part of the farmer. In order to secure these productivity gains, the
government has to invest a significant amount of resources to build
infrastructure and provide farmers with more efficient irrigation
systems, investment in scientific research and development, and
education extension programs.

On-time irrigation water application would allow farmers to apply water
when needed and in the volume required to maximize plant growth. The
current surface water distribution system is not set up for this type of
irrigation. It would require investment in infrastructure at the village
level, investment in research and development to determine optimal water
application volumes for plant varieties grown, and investment in the
education of farmers on optimal water use. Many farmers, particularly
those using the flood irrigation method, irrigate with excessive amounts
of water. A reduction on this over-use would significantly reduce
overall irrigation water use and increase yields, as plants would be
receiving optimal quantities of inputs. Currently, Chinese yields are
lower than the rest of the world so improvements in production
technology that do not require an increase in inputs may improve yields.

The development of higher yielding, drought resistant crops could reduce
agricultural production losses expected from increasing water scarcity.
International researchers have recently started to develop new strains
of corn, rice, canola, and other crops through genetic engineering (GE)
and conventional breeding, which can produce high yields even under
drought and water-stressed conditions (Pennisi, 2008). China has also
been investing heavily in GE crop research; research is being conducted
on GE rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans. This is in spite of the fact that
current government policy does not generally allow the production of
transgenic food plants (Mahr, 2008). If the government approves the use
of the genetically engineered varieties of these crops, a 10 to 15
percent yield increase could be expected.

Pollution caused by fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide applications
can also be dramatically reduced through the dissemination of
information on optimal application quantities. Farmers in the North
China Plain over-use water, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides.

# 

# Conclusion

China\'s water resources are currently being stretched beyond a
sustainable level. Water shortages in the NCP will significantly affect
agricultural production in the type of commodities grown and the volume
and value of production. The falling ground water tables and the
decreasing volume of available surface water are enough for certain
observers to predict a pending water crisis. The agriculture industry
faces increasing competition for these limited water resources from
industrial and urban consumers. While government policies implemented to
prevent further water pollution by industry may slow growth, increasing
demand from urban consumers is expected to increase dramatically. During
the past 20 years, China has undergone the largest urbanization in human
history with more than 572 million people living in urban areas and
another 428 million people expected to migrate by 2030 when urban
population will reach an unprecedented 1 billion (Woetzel, 2008).

The Chinese government will soon be forced to make difficult decisions
in order to address the pending crisis. However, it is difficult to
predict the impact on Chinese agricultural production and potential new
markets for U.S. exporters. If the government maintains their grain
self-sufficiency policy, this will put extreme pressure on the NCP's
water resources. If the government aggressively pursues pollution
control in the industrial sector, economic growth may decrease. If the
government continues to support the policy to increase rural incomes
without land reform, economies of scale in agricultural production and
maximum yields will be difficult to attain. If the government fully
supports science-based initiatives to address water scarcity, water
productivity gains may be achieved, yields may increase, and
agricultural production may not shift significantly. There are also
external factors such as the cost of inputs, which are not limited to
water but also include labor (increasing as urbanization expands) and
oil (used for transportation and fertilizer).

**Sources**

Brown, Lester. 2001. China's Water Table Torture. Grist: Environmental
News and Commentary. 26 October. Available at:
<http://grist.org/news/maindish/2001/10/26/table/>.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the Unites States of America. *The
World Factbook*. Available at
<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/>.

Kendy, Eloise, David J. Molden, Tammo S. Steenhuis, Changmin Liu, and
Jinxia Wang. 2003. *Policies Drain the North China Plain: Agricultural
Policy and Groundwater Depletion in Luancheng County, 1949-2000*.
International Water Management Institute. Research Report 71.

Larmer, Brook. 2008. *Bitter Waters.* [National Geographic]{.underline}.
Vol. 213, No. 5. May. p. 147-168.

Lohmar, Bryan and Hansen, James. 2007. *Interactions Between Resource
Scarcity and Trade Policy: The Potential Effects of Water Scarcity on
China's Agricultural Economy under the Current TRQ Regime.* Paper
Submitted to the Organizing Committee of the International Agricultural
Trade Research Consortium. Summer Symposium. Beijing, China. July 8-9.

Lohmar, Bryan, Jinxia Wang, Scott Rozelle Jikun Huang, and David Dawe.
2003. *China's Agricultural Water Policy Reforms: Increasing Investment,
Resolving Conflicts, and Revising Incentives.* Agricultural Information
Bulletin. Number 782. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research
Service. Market and Trade Economics Division.

Lohmar, Bryan, Qiuqiong Huang, Jinxia Wang, Bo Lei, Lijuan Zhang, Amelia
Blanke, Scott Rozelle, Jikun Huang, and Gao Zhanyi. 2008. *China's Water
Scarcity and Irrigation Policy Reforms: Effects on Water Use,
Agricultural Production, and Rural Incomes.* Forthcoming Publication.

Lohmar, Bryan and Wang, Jinxia. 2002. *Will Water Scarcity Affect
Agricultural Production in China?*. China's Food and Agriculture: Issues
for the 21^st^ Century. AIB-775. U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Economic Research Service. April.

Mahr, Krista, \"China\'s Genetically Altered Food Boom\"
[Time]{.underline} February 18, 2008 Available at:
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1714218,00.html.

Merriam-Webster. Online Dictionary. Available at:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary. Accessed 10 March 2008.

Ministry of Water Resources (MWR). 2004. South-to-North Water Transfer
Project. Bureau of South-to-North Water Transfer. 27 August. Available
at <http://www.mwr.gov.cn/english1/20040827/39304.asp>.

Minnesota Ground Water Association (MGWA). "Water Facts". Available at:
http://www.mgwa.org/education/waterfacts.html. Accessed March 2008.

Pennisi, Elizabeth. 2008. "The Blue Revolution, Drop by Drop, Gene by
Gene." *Science*. Vol 320, 11 April.

Turner, Jennifer and Otsuka, Kenji. 2006. *Reaching across the water:
International cooperation*

*promoting sustainable river basin governance in China.* China
Environment Forum: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Washington, (DC). May.

Woetzel, Jonathan. Janmitra Devan, Luke Jordan, Stefano Negri, and Diana
Farrell. 2008 *Preparing for China's Urban Billion: Summary of
Findings.* McKinsey Global Institute. March.

World Bank (WB). 2000. *Water Conservation Project.* Rural Development
and Natural Resource Sector Unit. East Asia and Pacific Region. Project
Appraisal Document. Report No: 19991-CHA. November 16.

World Bank (WB). 2004. *Hai Basin Integrated Water and Environment
Management Project.* Rural Development and Natural Resources Unit. East
Asia and Pacific Region. Project Appraisal Document. Report No: 26636.
March 19.

World Bank (WB). 2007. *Cost of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates
of Physical Damages*. Rural Development, Natural Resources and
Environment Management Unit. East Asia and Pacific Region. February.

Wang, J., Huang, J., Blanke, A., Huang, Q., & Rozelle, S. (2006). *The
development,*

*challenges and management of groundwater in rural China*. In M.
Giordano & K.G. Villholth (Eds.) [The agricultural groundwater
revolution: Opportunities and threats to development]{.underline} (pp.
37-61). London, (UK): CAB International.

Wang. J., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., Huang, Q., and Blanke, A. 2007.
Agriculture and groundwater development in northern China: trends,
institutional responses, and policy options. *Water Policy* (9)
Supplement 1, 61-74.

Yardley, Jim. 2007. "Beneath Booming Cities, China's Future is Drying
Up." *The New York Times.* September 28.

[^1]: Drip and sprinkler irrigation systems are difficult to use with
    the way surface water is allocated for irrigation in China

[^2]: Water within the earth especially that which supplies wells and
    springs (Merriam-Webster, 2008).