**Argonne National Laboratory**

**Argonne, IL 60439 USA**

#### ANL/CGC-004-0900

**GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT:**

**A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE^\*^**

by

*John Taylor*

Mathematics and Computer Science Division & Environmental Research
Division

Climate and Global Change Series

No. ANL/CGC-004-0900

September 2000

^\*^This work was supported by the U.S. Dept. of Energy under Contract
W-31-109-Eng-38.

# Contents

Abstract [1](#abstract)

1\. Introduction [3](#introduction)

2\. The Greenhouse Effect [3](#the-greenhouse-effect)

3\. The Greenhouse Gases [6](#the-greenhouse-gases)

4\. Climate Change [8](#climate-change)

5\. Impacts of Global Warming [12](#impacts-of-global-warming)

6\. Responding to Climate Change [15](#responding-to-climate-change)

7\. Global Climate Control and Fossil Fuels
[21](#global-climate-control-and-fossil-fuels)

8\. Conclusions [22](#conclusions)

References [24](#references)

**Global Environmental Management:**

**A Historical Perspective**

# by

# John Taylor

### Abstract

Our understanding of the Earth system has been developing rapidly over
the past few decades in response to major global environmental problems
such as the depletion of the ozone layer and the impact of global
climate change. Our desire to understand the Earth system is partly
driven by the need to manage the human impacts. In the case of
human-induced global climate change, mathematical models have been
instrumental in defining the existence of the potential for global
warming. We can study the evolution of our understanding in global
climate change over the past 200 years and critically assess how our
changing understanding of the earth system has influenced our management
decisions.

### 1. Introduction

The greenhouse effect and the potential for inducing climate change have
attracted considerable attention from the scientific community and the
public over the past few years. A large body of technical and popular
literature has been published on virtually every aspect of the enhanced
greenhouse effect. Accordingly, this paper can present only an overview
of the greenhouse effect and some of the key issues raised focusing on
our management decisions. In the first section of the paper, the sources
and impact of the greenhouse gases are discussed. The following sections
examine the greenhouse gases and the problem of forecasting and
responding to climate change. In the final section, the need for the
long-term management of global climate is raised.

### 2. The Greenhouse Effect

The term "greenhouse effect" has been employed extensively in both the
technical and the popular literature to refer to the predicted future
warming of the planet over the next 50 to 100 years (Schneider 1989,
Gribbin 1982, Boyle and Ardill 1989, Henderson-Sellers and Blong 1989,
Tucker 1981). More specifically, the term greenhouse effect refers to
the effect of the warming of the planet through the presence of the
greenhouse gases, such as water, carbon dioxide (CO~2~), and methane
(CH~4~), which absorb the heat radiated from the Earth\'s surface. These
greenhouse gases already produce atmospheric warming of approximately
33°C. Strictly, then, the concern associated with the release of
greenhouse gases due to human activities is with their potential for
producing substantial and rapid climate change -- the enhanced
greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect may represent the greatest single challenge that
society has yet faced. The challenge of reducing the impact of climate
change induced by the greenhouse effect is one that involves every
member of our global society. Each person is responsible, either
directly or indirectly, for a small contribution to the global release
of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. However, the contributions of
greenhouse gases from the different countries vary dramatically. Table 1
lists carbon emissions by regions for the world. Citizens of the
industrialized countries are, on average, contributing the largest
amounts of greenhouse gases, particularly chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), to the atmosphere. Nevertheless,
developing countries are contributing an increasing proportion of global
carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions from China, for example, have
increased 28% between 1990 and 1998.

Just as the releases of the greenhouse gases are widely distributed, so
too are the potential impacts (Schneider 1989, Jaeger 1988, Pearman
1988, Watson et al. 1998). The impacts may, however, bear no relation to
the point of release of the greenhouse gases, since the long lifetime of
these gases ensures that they will be distributed throughout the global
atmosphere. In particular, we observe the rapid transport and mixing of
the release of greenhouse gases in the northern hemisphere, where the
vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions occur, into the southern
hemisphere (Logan et al. 1981, Ramanathan et al. 1985, Taylor 1989). As
a consequence, average greenhouse gas concentrations in the southern
hemisphere are only a few percent lower than the corresponding average
northern hemisphere concentrations.

In summary, because of individual contributions to the emission of
greenhouse gases, the long lifetime of these gases, and their rapid
mixing throughout the global atmosphere, the release of greenhouse gases
has become a global problem that can be addressed only by concerted
global action.

Understanding the relationship between trace gases in the atmosphere and
climate has been increasing for some time. The history of research on
the greenhouse effect has spanned nearly two centuries. Table 2 provides
a brief summary of this research and the potential for climate change.
We note that the development of climate models has had a similarly long
history; Washington and Parkinson (1986) discuss the historical
development of climate models.

### 3. The Greenhouse Gases

The important greenhouse gases are listed in Table 3, along with their
major sources, an estimate of the percentage attributed to the
industrial release of the greenhouse gas, and the percentage attributed
to the release from the biosphere. Table 3 clearly indicates that, with
the exception of CFCs, the biosphere represents an important source of
greenhouse gases. We note that the percentage attributed to the
biosphere includes releases through both natural processes and
anthropogenically induced changes to the biosphere. For example, for
CO~2~, the biospheric emission value in Table 3 is largely associated
with the clearing of the forests. For methane, however, the biospheric
release occurs when anaerobic oxidation breaks down waste material
containing carbon to methane. This waste material includes natural
wetland sources, particularly the tundra, landfills (garbage dumps), and
rice paddies, an important form of agriculture (Cicerone and Oremland
1988). Methane is also released in large quantities through enteric
(intestinal) fermentation, particularly from sheep and cattle (Cicerone
and Oremland 1988, Ward et al., 1993).

The observation that the biosphere contributes a substantial proportion
of the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere has important
implications for the control of climate change. If policies for the
control of greenhouse gases are to succeed in the longer term, then an
aspect of these policies must include control of the biospheric
emissions of the greenhouse gases. This means, for example, not just
reducing the rate of deforestation, but also examining the wider range
of agricultural practices and their contributions to the emissions of
greenhouse gases. Humans are continuing to appropriate an increasing
proportion of the biosphere and its products (Vitousek et al. 1986). A
global study is required that focuses on current and proposed land-use
practices from the viewpoint of assessing current levels and potential
changes in greenhouse gas emissions. If one assumes that substantial
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved by industry, then
the global temperature will ultimately be determined by changes in land
use and concomitant changes in greenhouse gas fluxes.

In addition, since the biosphere is a major source of greenhouse gases
and since the biosphere is expected to change in response to global
warming, a significant potential for feedbacks exists (Lashof 1989).
Such feedbacks may be positive, leading to increasing emissions of
greenhouse gases with increasing temperature, or negative, where
increased temperature produces greater uptake of greenhouse gases, due
to increased plant growth, for example (Gifford 1988, Pittock and Nix
1986, Schimel et al. 1996). Hence, the greatest uncertainty associated
with forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions is associated with
changes in the biospheric sources.

### 4. Climate Change

The state-of-the-art approach to assessing the impact of greenhouse
gases upon global climate is through global climate modeling studies.
According to Gates et al. (1990), "Such models are the only available
means to consider simultaneously the wide range of interacting physical
processes that characterize the climate system, and their objective
numerical solution provides an opportunity to examine the nature of both
past and possible future climates under a variety of conditions."

Climate models, while of great complexity themselves, are considerable
simplifications of the immensely complex global climate system
(Washington and Parkinson 1986, Peixóto and Oort 1984). However, in
spite of this complexity in climate models, all climate modeling studies
to date indicate that significant global warming will occur if
greenhouse gases are allowed to increase over the next century. In a
review of climate model results for a doubling of CO~2~, Schneider
(1989) concluded that the likely global warming will be of the order of
2-6°C over the next century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
report (IPCC 1996) narrowed this range to 2-3°C. The relative
contribution of each greenhouse gas is listed in Table 4. Maxwell and
Barrie (1989) note that temperature changes at high latitudes could be
as much as 2.4 times greater than the global average temperature change
during winter.

Schneider (1989), Mitchell (1989), Dickinson (1989), and Cess et al.
(1989) found that the parameterization of the hydrological cycle, cloud
climate feedbacks, and the response of the oceans to global warming were
key factors in producing the variability of the predicted responses of
the models to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Currently the
median estimated global warming for an equivalent doubling of
atmospheric CO~2~ is \~2.0°C (Kattenberg et al. 1996). Jouzel et al.
(1987) note that a change in average temperature of more than 2°C could
be outside the usual range of temperatures experienced in the past
160,000 years. In the face of the consensus of climate models, it
appears very unlikely that no global warming will take place (Kattenberg
et al. 1996).

Atmospheric CO~2~ has increased from a preindustrial level of \~280 ppm
to \~370 ppm in 2000, implying that potentially significant climate
change may have already occurred. Evidence for such a global warming has
been obtained from the analysis of all available surface air temperature
measurements, where care has been taken to remove systematic errors such
as the urban heat island effect and the relocation of measurement sites,
for example, up and down mountains and to or from coastlines (Jones et
al. 1988). Measured surface temperatures have been found to increase
between 0.3 and 0.6^o^ C (Jones et al. 1997, Hegerl et al. 1997, Hegerl
et al. 1996, Jones and Hegerl, 1998, Santer et al. 1995). These data
reveal that a warming of 0.5°C has occurred over the past century and
that the past two decades have seen many of the warmest years on record.
Other evidence includes rapidly warming oceans (based on the satellite
measurements of the global radiation budget experiment), record cold
stratospheric temperatures (Karoly 1989), and analysis of tree-ring data
(Jacoby 1989) and other proxy temperature reconstructions (Mann et al.
1999), all of which are consistent with the possibility of global
warming induced by the increase in greenhouse gases.

While these results are indicative of a climate warming, they do not
represent definite proof that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
produces climate warming. Establishing a direct causal link between the
apparent global warming and the greenhouse effect on the basis of
observational data will remain problematic, partly because of the
complexity of the natural system and partly because of the natural
variability of the system, which may explain the observed climate
behavior. Put another way,. unknown factors or unknown combinations of
known factors, other than the greenhouse effect, may be producing the
observed climate change. Natural variability therefore limits our
ability to determine the best management decisions.

### 5. Impacts of Global Warming

The impacts of global warming are, at present, predicted to affect all
peoples. It is also highly likely that the effects will be substantial
and will not be restricted to a single aspect of our lives. Many
excellent early studies of the potential impacts of climate change at
the continental scale have been prepared (Pearman (1988) and
Henderson-Sellers and Blong (1989). Table 5 lists the broad range of
potential impacts on the natural environment and human society that have
been attributed to climate change induced by the release of greenhouse
gases. Glantz (1988) uses forecasting by analogy to study societal
responses to regional climate change in the United States. Such an
approach could usefully be applied to other regions. Watson et al.
(1998) provide a recent survey of the possible regional impacts of
climate change.

While a wide range of potential impacts can be identified as arising
from the greenhouse effect (Pearman 1988, Henderson-Sellers and Blong
1989, Watson et al. 1998) and despite identification of a 0.5°C rise in
temperature (Jones et al. 1988, 1997), no single weather event or
climate change can be attributed with 100% certainty to the enhanced
greenhouse effect. This does not mean that the impacts of climate change
have not occurred or will not occur. Rather, it reflects the problem of
identifying with reasonable certainty significant departures from the
normal when the climate system exhibits considerable natural variability
(Karoly 1989, Hegerl et al. 1996, 1997, Jones et al. 1988, 1997).
However, Tsonis and Fisher (1989) noted that six of the warmest years on
record occurred during 1980-1988. They calculated that the probability
of this being a manifestation of the natural variability of the system
was between .010 and .032. Recent analysis has found also that 1998 was
possibly the warmest year in at the past 1000 years (Mann et al. 1999).
Record of continuously increasing temperature, with identifiable
departures from the usual climate, may take another decade or longer to
materialize. In the meantime, the opportunity to delay or significantly
reduce the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect will be lost,
thus limiting our future management choices.

It is hoped that by examining climate model predictions, a greenhouse
warming fingerprint can be identified that can then be used with
existing climate data to test the greenhouse warming hypothesis. We
would also expect that climate models should be able to reproduce the
climate of the past century during which greenhouse concentrations have
risen dramatically. Recent climate modeling studies that include the
effects of atmospheric aerosols continue to improve the match between
observed and modeled temperature trends (Hasselmann 1997, Mitchell et
al. 1995, Roeckner et al. 1996). As we continue to refine our climate
modeling skill, so we will improve our ability to determine both
desirable, and potentially undesirable consequences, associated with
global climate change.

### 6. Responding to Climate Change

If we are convinced that we will be subjected to the broad range of
impacts arising from the enhanced greenhouse effect, we must act to
reduce the flux of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The enforcement
of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994
indicates that a broad consensus has been achieved that action must be
taken to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The
UNFCC includes a statement of a desirable goal that includes
"stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference
with the climate system."

However, it is also clear that a complete consensus concerning action on
limiting greenhouse gas emissions has not been achieved to date. Most
notably the United States, which is the largest emitter of greenhouse
gases, has not ratified the UNFCCC. Complications in international
negotiations will continue to arise in that any decisions concerning the
limitation of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere will be taken
in a much broader social, political, and economic context, thus applying
a strong constraint on what is achievable in terms of long term
greenhouse gas emission reductions. The lifetime of greenhouse gases
being of the order of years to decades means that emission reductions
should ideally be implemented as soon as possible. It would be unwise to
wait for improved observational information or more definitive research
results to become available because the eventual global warming by, say,
2030 will represent not only the annual release of greenhouse gases but
the accumulated atmospheric concentration up to that year. The addition
of CO~2~ to the atmosphere is also fundamentally irreversible, again
limiting our management options. The eventual equilibrium of atmospheric
CO~2~ with the oceans and biosphere will leave 15-30% of the CO~2~ in
the atmosphere for thousands of years (Broecker and Peng 1982, Sarmiento
et al. 1992, Archer et al. 1998).

A further problem associated with the timing and level of required
control of greenhouse gas emissions arises from the delay in the
observed warming of the atmosphere due to the large heat capacity of the
oceans (Mitchell 1989). This apparent delay in global warming may also
delay action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions because of a lack of
clear evidence of global warming. Yet, while the oceans may slow the
climatic response to the greenhouse gases, the atmospheric temperature
will ultimately rise to a temperature determined by the ability of the
greenhouse gases to absorb and re-radiate heat back to the earth\'s
surface. By analogy, we have switched on a global heater for the
lifetime of the greenhouse gases, which we cannot easily turn off when
faced with an undesirable rise in temperature.

In many instances of local-scale pollution, such as in London, air
pollution levels were allowed to reach dangerous levels before controls
were implemented. The unfortunate consequence of such action in the case
of London was a reported 4000 additional deaths for the period of 5-9
December 1952 (Seinfeld 1986). However, even though we are aware of the
causes of these local-scale problems, air pollution levels are still
allowed to exceed acceptable levels in many cities around the world.

The lesson to be learned here is that action at the local scale, with
clearly identifiable and desirable goals, has proceeded to date with
only limited success, over many decades using a wide range of
techniques. Comprehensive new approaches are needed to solve the problem
of atmospheric pollution, approaches that can be applied not only at the
local-scale but also at the regional and global scales.

Current proposals for the reduction of greenhouse gases center on an
increase in energy efficiency, largely based on "no regrets" actions.
This approach has as its chief advantage the economic benefits
associated with reduced expenditure on energy and the concomitant
reduction in local- and regional-scale pollution associated with energy
generation. However, increased energy efficiency will, at best, only
delay the eventual climate warming. Increases in the total energy demand
will rapidly overcome any gains in energy efficiency that may be
achieved.

What is required in the longer term is the development and application
of alternative energy sources that do not release greenhouse gases
during energy generation. Two current competing methods of energy
generation are terrestrial nuclear energy and solar energy. Either route
will probably require similar and substantial capital input in order to
overcome technical problems associated with its large-scale application
if it is to replace fossil fuel energy generation (International Energy
Agency 1987).

Since terrestrial nuclear energy is not currently a sustainable
alternative in the long term because of the continual generation of
waste, the threat of nuclear proliferation, and the release of
radioactive environmental pollutants with extremely long half-lives, a
major long-term investment should be made into sustainable alternatives.
The development of economically competitive alternative energy systems
would be advantageous to developed countries such as the United States
because of the possibility of exporting both the technology and its
products, such as liquid hydrogen. We note that solar energy may be
converted to liquid hydrogen, which may then be employed as a substitute
for liquid hydrocarbon fuels, particularly in transport (International
Energy Agency 1987). Australia and other countries, such as those in the
Middle East, would probably enjoy a competitive advantage in that they
have large amounts of sunshine and relatively inexpensive land on which
to base solar energy generating facilities.

Table 6 presents estimates of the cost of reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions. It also indicates that solar thermal technology may represent
an economic alternative to nuclear power at the present. Table 6 also
shows the relatively low cost of improving energy efficiency to reduce
CO~2~ emissions. For comparison, the estimated current levels of
investment in the development of new technologies in the United States
to reduce CO~2~ emissions are presented in Table 7. Unfortunately, the
levels of investment in improvements in energy efficiency and solar
energy do not reflect their cost effectiveness in reducing CO~2~
emissions, as indicated in Table 6. Carbon sequestration has also been
adopted as a major strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions in the United States and is now the subject of a major program
of research by the U.S. Department of Energy. Most likely, however, a
combination of approaches will be needed to substantially reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.

Every day each person in a developed country adds to the global
atmosphere \~12 kg of carbon as CO~2~, and lesser amounts of the other
greenhouse gases. Since each individual is contributing to the
greenhouse effect, it is possible to address the problem not only from
national and international perspectives, but also from the perspective
of the individual. While the need to assess national contributions to
the release of greenhouse gases and the development of a national
strategy are important goals, if they are to be achieved they must
include a component that addresses the individual contribution to the
release of greenhouse gases. Detailed information on both the direct and
the indirect release of greenhouse gases should be provided to all
persons so that they can assess their contribution to the release of
greenhouse gases and develop a personal plan for the reduction of
greenhouse gases by selecting alternative activities that result in
lower greenhouse gas emissions. Examples of potential reductions in the
release of greenhouse gases should also be presented. The provision of
detailed and reliable information should ensure a greater reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions than can be achieved by ad hoc measures alone,
particularly where proper account of the indirect release of greenhouse
gases is included. This will also allow individuals the freedom to
decide with confidence how they can best contribute to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions.

While only limited action has been taken to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions at the global scale, important developments have been
occurring in the past few years. Table 8 lists some of significant
international actions on global environmental change. While this list is
impressive, it is questionable whether the present rate of progress at
the international level will lead to significant reductions in CO~2~
emissions before the next century. On a more positive note, Hansen et
al. (1989) found that, had the growth rates of CFC production occurring
in the 1970s been allowed to continue to the present, then the current
annual growth in global warming would be equivalent to that of CO~2~.
They note that CFCs now provide one-quarter of current annual increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse climate warming.

### 7. Global Climate Control and Fossil Fuels

The conservation of fossil fuels may also play an important long-term
role as a means of stabilizing global climate. Available evidence
clearly indicates that the normal state of the Earth\'s climate over the
past 160,000 years has been much cooler, an ice age (Jouzel et al.
1987). If we wish to avoid a catastrophe where global temperatures fall
to ice age conditions, then retaining a large global store of fossil
fuels that could be released in a controlled fashion to stabilize the
global climate may be an important long-term consideration (Callendar
1938). The present release of fossil fuels should be sufficient in the
near future to calibrate and validate regional-scale resolution global
climate models and so facilitate the global-scale management of the
human influence on the world\'s climate and biosphere. A component of
such a management approach to global climate would be an internationally
agreed global land use management plan, which would enable the exchange
of greenhouse gases (emissions and sinks) between the biosphere and
atmosphere to be monitored and evaluated. Such a management plan could
potentially be more beneficial than the current ad hoc and uncontrolled
global experiment with the Earth's climate and would provide the means
to achieve the UNFCCC goals.

### 8. Conclusions

Climate modeling will continue to play a central role in evaluating the
potential impact of increased in greenhouse gas concentrations in the
global atmosphere and in finding acceptable management options for
controlling greenhouse gas emissions. We can influence global climate in
the future through modification of current greenhouse gas emissions to
the atmosphere. Decisions concerning the path of future greenhouse gas
emissions will be influenced by the level of certainty that we can place
in our scientific knowledge concerning climate change. These decisions,
however, will have to be made in a much broader social, political, and
economic context based on a global consensus. Clearly, while building on
existing international agreements such as UNFCCC, much more work is
urgently required if we are to realize the desirable goal of stabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the
climate system

### References

Archer, D., Kheshgi, H. and Maier-Reimer, E. 1998. Dynamics of fossil
fuel CO~2~ neutralization by marine CaCO~3~. *Global Biogeochemical
Cycles,* 12, 259-276.

Arrhenius, S. 1896. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon
the temperature of the ground. *Phil Mag*. 41: 237-276.

Boyle, S., and Ardill, J. 1989. *The greenhouse effect: A practical
guide to the world\'s changing climate*. London: New English Library.

Broecker, W. S., and Peng, T.-H. 1982. *Tracers in the sea*. 690 pp.,
Eldigio Press, Palisades, New York.

Brooks, C. E. P. 1951. Geological and historical aspects of climate
change. In *Comp. of Meteor.,* 1004-1028, Boston.

Callendar, G. S. 1938. The artificial production of carbon dioxide and
its influence on temperature. *Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc.* 64: 223-237.

Cess, R. D., Potter, G. L., Blanchet, J. P., Boer, G. J., Ghan, S. J.,
Kiehl, J. T., Treut, H., Li, Z.-X., Liang, X.-Z., Mitchell, J. F. B.,
Morcrette, J.-J., Randall, D. A., Richness, M. R., Roechkner, E.,
Schlese, A., Slingo, A., Taylor, K. E., Washington, W. M., Wetherald, R.
T., and Yagai, I. 1989. Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as
produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. *Science* 245:
513-516.

Chamberlin, T. C. 1897. A group of hypotheses bearing on climatic
changes. *J. Geology*. 5: 653-683.

Chamberlin, T. C. 1898. The influence of great epochs of limestone
formation upon the constitution of the atmosphere. *J. Geology* 6:
609-621.

Chamberlin, T. C. 1899. An attempt to frame a working hypothesis of the
cause of glacial periods on an atmospheric basis. *J. Geology* 1:
545-584, 667-685 and 751-787.

Cicerone, R. J., and Oremland, R. S. 1988. Biogeochemical aspects of
atmospheric methane. *Global Biogeochem. Cycles* 2: 299-327.

Dickson, R. E. 1989. Uncertainties of estimates of climatic change: A
review. *Climatic Change* 15: 5-13.

Flavin, C. 1989. *Slowing global warming: A worldwide strategy*.
Worldwatch Paper 91. New York: Worldwatch Institute.

Fourier, M. 1827. Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des
espaces planétaires. *Mem. de l\'Académie Royale des Sciences de
l\'Institute de France*. I, 569-604.

Fulkerson, W., Reister, D. B., Perry, A. M., Crane, A. T., Kash, D. E.,
and Auerbach, S. I. 1989. Global warming: An energy technology R&D
Challenge. *Science* 246: 868-869.

Gates, W. L, Rowntree, P. R., and Zeng, Q.-C. 1990 Validation of Climate
Models. In J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and Ephraums (eds.) Climate
Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK.

Gifford, R. M. 1988. Interactions with Vegetation. In. G. I. Pearman
(ed). *Greenhouse: Planning for Climatic Change*, 83-89. Melbourne:
CSIRO.

Glantz, M. H. (ed.) 1988. *Societal responses to regional climatic
change: Forecasting by Analogy*. Boulder: Westview Press.

Gribbin, J. 1982. *Future weather and the greenhouse effect*. New York:
Dell Publishing Co.

Hansen, J., Lacis, A., and Prather, M. 1989. Greenhouse effect of
chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. *J. Geophys. Res.* 94:
16417-16421.

Hasselmann, K., 1997. Climate change: Are we seeing global warming?,
*Science* 276: 914-915.

Henderson-Sellers, A., and Blong, R. 1989. *The greenhouse effect:
Living in a warmer Australia*. Kensington: New South Wales University
Press.

Hegerl, G. C., Hasselmann, K., Cubasch, U., Mitchell, J. F. B.,
Roeckner, E.. Voss, R., and Waskewitz, J. 1997. On multi-fingerprint
detection and attribution of greenhouse gas and aerosol forced climatic
change, *Climate Dynamics* 13: 613-634.

Hegerl, G. C., Storch, H. V., Hasselmann, K., Santer, B. D., Cubasch,
U., and Jones, P. D. 1996. Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate
change with an optimal fingerprint Method, *J. Climate* 9: 2281-2306.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1996. *Climate Change 1995:
The Science of Climate Change*, edited by J. T. Houghton, L. G. M.
Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, pp.
65-131, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,

International Energy Agency 1987. *Renewable sources of energy*.
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.

Jacoby, G. C. 1989. Reconstructed northern hemisphere annual temperature
since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America.
*Climatic Change* 14: 39-59.

Jaeger, J. 1988. Developing policies for responding to climatic change,
WMO/TD-No. 225, World Meteorological Organization.

Jones, P. D., T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, 1997. Estimating sampling
errors in large-scale temperature averages, *J. Climate* 10: 2548-2568.

Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E., Angell,
J. K., Lebedef, S., and Hansen, J. E. 1988. Evidence for a global
warming in the past decade. *Nature* 338: 790.

Jones, P. D., and Hegerl, G. C. 1998. Comparisons of two methods of
removing anthropogenically related variability from the near-surface
observational temperature field, *J. Geophys. Res,* 103: 13,777-13:786.

Jouzel, J., Lorius, C., Petit, J R., Genthon, C., Barkov, N. I.,
Kotlyakov, V. M., and Petrov, V. M. 1987. Vostok ice core: A continuous
isotope temperature record over the last climatic cycle (160 000 years),
*Nature* 329: 403.

Kattenberg, A., Giorgi, F., Grassl, H., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F.
B., Stouffer, R. J., Tokioka, T., Weaver, A. J., and Wigley, T. M. L.
1996. Climate models -- projections of future climate, in *Climate
Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change*, edited by J. T. Houghton,
L. G. M. Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K.
Maskell, 285-357, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Karoly, D. J. 1989. Northern hemisphere temperature trends: A possible
greenhouse gas effect? *Geophys. Res. Let*. 16: 465-468.

Lashof, D. 1989. The dynamic greenhouse feedback processes that may
influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic
change. *Climate Change* 14: 213-242.

Logan, J. A., Prather, M. J., Wofsy, S. C., and McElroy, M. B. 1981.
Tropospheric chemistry: A global perspective. *J. Geophys. Res.* C8:
7210-7254.

Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S.,and Hughes, M. K. 1999 Northern hemisphere
temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and
limitations, *Geophysical Research Letters* 26: 759-762.

Maxwell, J. B., and Barrie, L. A. 1989. Atmospheric and climatic change
in the Arctic and Antarctic. *Ambio*. 18: 32-49.

Mitchell, J. F. B. 1989. The \`greenhouse\' effect and climate change.
*Rev. Geophysics* 27: 115-139.

Mitchell, J. F. B., Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M., and Tett, S. F. B.
1995. Climate response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate
aerosols, *Nature* 376: 501-504.

Moller, F. 1963. The influence of changes in the CO~2~ concentration in
air on the radiation balance of the earth\'s surface and on climate. *J.
Geophys. Res.* 68: 3877-3886.

Pearman, G. I. (ed.) 1988. *Greenhouse: Planning for climate change*.
Melbourne: CSIRO.

Peixóto, J. P., and Oort, A. H. 1984. Physics of climate. *Rev. Mod.
Phys*. 56: 365-429.

Pittock, A. B., and Nix, H. A. 1986. The effect of changing climate on
Australian biomass production: A preliminary study. *Climatic Change* 8:
243-255.

Plass, G. N. 1956. The carbon dioxide theory of climatic change.
*Tellus* 8: 140-154.

Ramanathan, V. 1975. Greenhouse effect due to chlorofluorocarbons:
Climate implications. *Science* 190: 50-52.

Ramanathan, V., Cicerone, R. J., Singh, H. B., and Kiehl, J. T. 1985.
Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate change. *J.
Geophys. Res.* 90: 5547-5566.

Ramanathan, V., Callis, L., Cess, R., Hansen, J., Isaksen, I., Kuhn, W.,
Lacis, A., Luther, F., Mahlman, J., Reek, R., and Schlesinger, M. 1987.
Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace
gases. *Rev. of Geophys*. 25: 1441-1482.

Roeckner, E., Oberhuber, J. M. Bacher, A. Christoph, M., and Kirchner,
I. 1996. ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled
atmosphere-ocean GCM, *Climate Dynamis,* 12: 737-754.

Sarmiento, J. L., Orr, J. C., and Siegenthaler, U. 1992. A perturbation
simulation of CO~2~ uptake in an ocean general circulation model, *J.
Geophys. Res*. 97: 3621-3645.

Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Penner, J. E. Jones, P.
D., and Cubasch, U. 1995. Towards the detection and attribution of an
anthropogenic effect on climate, *Climate Dynamics* 12: 79-100.

Schneider, S. H. 1989. The greenhouse effect: Science and policy.
*Science* 243: 771-781.

Schimel, D., Alves, D., Enting, I., Heimann, M., Joos, F., Raynaud, D.,
Wigley, T., Prather, M., Derwent, R., Ehhalt, D., Fraser, P., Sauhueza,
E., Zhou, X., Jonas, P., Charlson, R., Rodhe, H., Sadasivan, S., Shine,
K. P., Fouquart, Y., Ramaswamy, V., Solomon, S., Srinivasan, J.,
Albritton, D., Derwent, R., Isaksen, I., Lal, M., and Wuebbles, D. 1996.
Radiative forcing of climate change, in *Climate change 1995: The
science of climate change*, edited by J. T. Houghton, L. G. M. Filho, B.
A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, pp. 65-131,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Seinfeld, J. H. 1986. *Atmospheric chemistry and physics of air
pollution*, John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Taylor, J. A. 1989. A stochastic Lagrangian atmospheric transport model
to determine global CO2 sources and sinks. A preliminary discussion.
*Tellus* 41B: 272-285.

Tucker, G.B. 1981 *The CO~2~ climate connection*. Australian Academy of
Science, Canberra, Australia.

Vitousek, P. M., Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H., and Matson, P. A. 1986.
Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis, *BioScience*,
368-373.

Washington, W.M., and Parkinson, C. L. 1986*. An introduction to
three-dimensional climate modeling.* University Science Books, Mill
Valley.

Ward, G. M., Doxtader, K. G., Miller, W. C., and Johnson, D. E. 1993.
Effects of intensification of Agricultural practices on emission of
greenhouse gases. *Chemosphere* 26: 87-93,

Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J., eds.
1998. *The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of
vulnerability*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 1: Carbon emissions by region for the world for 1988**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

Total Per capita

(million (tonnes)

tonnes)

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

USSR and Eastern Europe 1428 3.55

North America 1379 5.07

Latin America 910 2.09

Far East Asia 833 0.55

Western Europe 774 2.03

Centrally Planned Asia 774 0.66

Africa 534 0.86

Oceania 336 2.27

Middle East 187 1.14

WORLD 7319^1^ 1.42

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Source:* Flavin (1989).

1\. World total does not equal column total because of reporting
irregularities by the United Nations.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

**Table 2: A brief history of carbon dioxide and climate change**

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

1820s Fourier (1827) suggested that heat could be retained by the
atmosphere and described the effect as acting in a manner similar to a
hothouse (greenhouse).

1860s John Tyndall (1861) performed measurements of the capacity of
water vapor, CO~2~ and other gases to absorb heat (infrared radiation).

1890s Svante Arrhenius (1896), using S. Langley's measurements of
infrared radiation from the moon, estimated the ability of CO~2~ and
water vapor to absorb infrared radiation. He calculated that a doubling
of CO~2~ would increase temperatures by 5-6°C while a 1/3 decrease would
reduce temperatures 3-3.4°C.

T. C. Chamberlin (1897, 1898, 1899), in a series of papers, developed a
theory of climate change over geological timescales, based on changes in
atmospheric CO~2~ to explain the cyclic behavior of the extent of
glaciation.

1900-1950s The carbon dioxide theory of climate change fell into disuse
as water vapor was considered to absorb all infrared radiation from the
earth\'s surface (Brooks 1951). G.S. Callendar (1938) found that CO~2~
is remaining in the atmosphere and will lead to a global warming of 2°C
for a doubling of CO~2~ concentration. G. N. Plass (1956) revives the
carbon dioxide theory of climate and predicts a 3.6°C increase in
temperature for a doubling of CO~2~ concentration.

1957 Roger Revelle and Hans Suess (1957) state that mankind is carrying
out a "global scale experiment" through the release of carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere.

1960s Numerous studies confirm potential and extent of perturbation of
climate due to CO~2~. Importance of feedback mechanisms is identified
(e.g., Moller 1963).

1970s Other trace gases such as CH~4~, nitrous oxide, and CFCs are
identified as greenhouse gases. First 3-dimensional climate studies are
performed. (Ramanathan 1975, Wang et al. 1976).

1980s Many 3-dimensional global climate model studies support climate
warming of 2-6°C. Detailed studies of the potential impacts commence at
the regional scale. First developments of global action commence, to
delay and reduce the impact of climate change. (e.g., Washington and
Parkinson 1986, Schneider 1989).

1990s Climate system models are developed linking atmosphere, oceans,
land surface, and biosphere. Global action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions commences in earnest through the Kyoto Protocol and
establishment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The
balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global
climate (IPCC 1995).

2000s Comprehensive regional resolution (1-10 km) climate models are
developed and used to assess and mitigate the impacts of climate change
on a routine basis.

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 3: Important greenhouse gases and their sources**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

Gas Industrial/ Major Source

Biosphere

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

CO~2~ 80%/20% Industrial

Deforestation

CH~4~ 10%/90% Rice paddies

Ruminants

Termites

Biomass burning

Natural wetlands

Coal mining

Gas drilling

Land fills

N~2~O 20%/80% Agricultural

Activities

Oceans

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 4: Predicted temperature changes relative to CO~2~ associated
with trace gases by 2030**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

Trace gas Temperature change (˚C)

relative to CO~2~

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Carbon dioxide 1.000

Nitrous oxide 0.620

CFCs 0.620

Methane 0.197

Tropospheric ozone 0.085

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Source:* Derived from Ramanathan et al. (1985).

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 5: Potential impacts of a global warming**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Climate changes**:

• changing weather patterns

• increased number, range, and severity of cyclones

• changes in rainfall and run-off

-   changes in cloudiness

**Coastal impacts**:

• inundation of coast lines

• coastal recession changes in coastal vegetation, e.g., salt marshes

• increase in storm surge levels

• increased drowning of the Great Barrier Reef

• changing fishery production

**Hydrology and water resources**:

• increased erosion from wind and water

• changes in groundwater recharge and salinity

• increased salinity of streams

• greater probability of large and damaging floods

• need to redesign flood carrying structures

• changes in soil moisture during the growing season

• changes in availability of irrigation water

• changes in extent and duration of snow cover

**Natural biosphere**:

• shifts in bioclimatic zones

• changes in the distribution and abundance of native flora and fauna

• local and regional extinction of species

• increased growth due to CO~2~ fertilization

• increased frequency of bushfires

**Food production**:

• reduced gain production capacity

• increased year-to-year crop variability

• increased growth due to CO~2~ fertilisation

• reduced production from increases in cloudiness

• reduced yields of warm temperature crops because of less winter
chilling

**Society**

• relocation of industry and populations

• economic impacts of the costs and response to climate change

• increased energy costs

• increased food costs

• increased insurance costs

• increase in diseases

• increases in natural hazards

• institutional responses to climate change national

• regional and industrial action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• changing international cooperation and policies uncertainty

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Source*: Based in part upon Pearman (1988); Henderson-Sellers and Blong
(1989), and Watson et al. (1998).

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 6: Cost of avoiding carbon emissions using new power
technologies, 1989**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

Estimated Carbon Avoid-

generating Carbon pollution ance

cost^1^ reduction^2^ cost cost

(¢/kwh) (percent) (¢/kwh) (\$/ton)

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Improving energy

efficiency 2.0-4.0 100 0.19^3^

Steam-injected gas

Turbine 4.8-6.3 61 0.5 109-200

Combined-cycle 5.4 10 1. 814

Geothermal energy 5.8 99 1.0 123

Wind power 6.4 100 0.3 107

Solar thermal (gas) 7.9 84 0.216

Nuclear power 12.5 99 5.0 617

Photovoltaics 28.4 100 0.0 921

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Source*: Flavin (1989)

1\. Leveled cost over the life of the plant, assuming current
construction costs and a range of natural gas prices.

2\. Compared with existing coal-fired power plants.

3\. Some energy-efficiency improvements cost less than operating a
coal-fired plant, so avoiding carbon emissions is actually free.

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 7: Estimates of the annual cost of research and development into
reducing CO~2~ emissions in the USA**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Strategy Cost per annum**

**(\$US million)**

**1989^1^ 1999^3^**

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Technology transfer

to developing countries 100-200 100-200

Solar and other renewable technologies 200 384

Improvements in efficiency 300 745

Safer nuclear power reactors 350 75

Fusion 1000-2000^2^ 230

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

1\. Fulkerson et al. (1989)

2\. Estimated expenditure 1991

3\. Source: DOE Budget Tables FY99

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

**Table 8: International actions on the greenhouse effect and global
environmental change**

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

1985 Villach Conference (UNEP, ICSU, WMO) on effect of increased CO~2~
and other greenhouse gases on climate and ecosystems.

1986 ICSU launches the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme.

1987 Montreal agreement limits the manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs).

1987 UN World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland
Commission) releases *Our common future*, a manifesto for socio-economic
change.

1988 Toronto accord is formulated to limit fossil fuel CO emissions.

1989 Declaration of 24 nations at the Hague places concerns for the
world environment ahead of the national interest.

1989 Environmental concern of Margaret Thatcher, following an invited
briefing by British scientists.

1989 President Bush invites the world to hold an international
conference in the US.

1989 President Mitterrand hosts 275 scientists from 40 nations for a
conference on Planet Earth.

1989 President Gorbachev announces January 1990 Moscow meeting on global
actions to save the planet\'s environment.

1989 Environment ministers from 68 countries attend the Conference on
Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Change in the Netherlands organized by
the Dutch Government and intended to provide the political impetus to
efforts to achieve early action.

1990 First Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports

1994 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which includes
commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enters into force

1995 Second IPCC Reports in which it is found that the balance of
evidence supports human induced climate change due to the enhanced
greenhouse effect

2000 Third IPCC Report due for release

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Note*: UNEP - United Nations Environment Program, ICSU - International
Council of Scientific Unions, WMO-World Meteorological Organization.