**Table of Contents**

+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **Executive Summary**                                          | xv  |
|                                                                |     |
| **I. Introduction and Overview**                               | #   |
|                                                                | ##  |
| > Organization of Report                                       | I-1 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Measuring Welfare Dependence                                 | I-1 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Measuring Deprivation                                        | I-3 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Data Sources                                                 | I-7 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | I-9 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **II. Indicators of Dependence**                               | ### |
|                                                                | # I |
| > Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence                            | I-1 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor    | I   |
| > Force Attachment                                             | I-4 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance     | II  |
| >                                                              | -10 |
| > Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested          |     |
| > Assistance Programs                                          | II  |
| >                                                              | -14 |
| > Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt                        |     |
| >                                                              | II  |
| > Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions                          | -20 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration                       | II  |
| >                                                              | -24 |
| > Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration                          |     |
| >                                                              | II  |
| > Indicator 9. Long-Term Dependency                            | -26 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > Indicator 10. Long-Term Receipt                              | II  |
| >                                                              | -28 |
| > Indicator 11. Events Associated with the Beginning and       |     |
| > Ending of Program                                            | II  |
| >                                                              | -30 |
| > Spells                                                       |     |
|                                                                | II  |
|                                                                | -32 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | II  |
|                                                                | -34 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | II  |
|                                                                | -36 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **III. Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare     | #   |
| Receipt**                                                      | ### |
|                                                                |  II |
| ###### Economic Security Risk Factors                          | I-1 |
|                                                                |     |
| > ECON 1. Poverty Rates                                        | II  |
| >                                                              | I-4 |
| > ECON 2. Deep Poverty Rates                                   |     |
| >                                                              | II  |
| > ECON 3. Alternative Poverty Measures                         | I-6 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > ECON 4. Poverty Rates with Various Means-Tested Benefits     | II  |
| > Included                                                     | I-8 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > ECON 5. Poverty Spells                                       | III |
|                                                                | -10 |
| ECON 6. Long-Term Poverty                                      |     |
|                                                                | III |
| ECON 7. Child Support                                          | -12 |
|                                                                |     |
| ECON 8. Food Insecurity                                        |     |
|                                                                |     |
| ECON 9. Lack of Health Insurance                               |     |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -14 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -16 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -20 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -22 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| *Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors*                     | III |
|                                                                | -24 |
| WORK 1. Labor Force Attachment                                 |     |
|                                                                | III |
| > WORK 2. Employment Among the Low-Skilled                     | -26 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > WORK 3. Earnings of Low-Skilled Workers                      | III |
| >                                                              | -28 |
| > WORK 4. Educational Attainment                               |     |
| >                                                              | III |
| > WORK 5. High School Dropout Rates                            | -30 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > WORK 6. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse                    | III |
| >                                                              | -32 |
| > WORK 7. Adult/Child Disability                               |     |
| >                                                              | III |
| > WORK 8. Children's Health Conditions                         | -34 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > WORK 9. Child Care Expenditures                              | III |
|                                                                | -36 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -38 |
|                                                                |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -40 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| ####### Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors                         | III |
|                                                                | -42 |
| > BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women                           |     |
| >                                                              | III |
| > BIRTH 2. Births to Unmarried Teens                           | -45 |
| >                                                              |     |
| > BIRTH 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups        | III |
| >                                                              | -48 |
| > BIRTH 4. Never-Married Family Status                         |     |
|                                                                | III |
|                                                                | -50 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **Appendices**                                                 |     |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| A.  **Program Data**                                           | ### |
|                                                                | ##  |
| > Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Temporary | A-1 |
| > Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)                         |     |
| >                                                              | A-1 |
| > Food Stamp Program                                           |     |
| >                                                              | A   |
| > Supplemental Security Income (SSI)                           | -22 |
|                                                                |     |
| B.  **Alternative Definition of Dependence Based on Income     | A   |
|     from**                                                     | -33 |
|                                                                |     |
| ####  AFDC/TANF and Food Stamps                                | ### |
|                                                                | ##  |
|                                                                | B-1 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **C. Additional Non-Marital Birth Data**                       | ### |
|                                                                | ##  |
|                                                                | C-1 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+
| **D. Sources of Data**                                         | *   |
|                                                                | *D- |
|                                                                | 1** |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+-----+

# List of Figures

**Chapter I**

SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1993-1998

SUM 2. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various
Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-1999

SUM 3. Recipiency and Dependency Rates from Two Data Sources: 1987-1998

**Chapter II**

IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs: 1998

IND 1b. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty
Status: 1998

IND 2a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Program: 1998

IND 2b. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants: 1993-1998

IND 3a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age:
1970-1999

IND 3b. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by
Age: 1975-1999

IND 3c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age:
1974-1999

IND 4a. Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI
Programs: Selected Years

IND 5. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple
Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance:
1998

IND 6. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50
Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race

IND 7. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No
Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the
1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

IND 8. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals
Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

IND 9. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income
from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1982 and 1991, by Years of Dependency

IND 10. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in 1982, by Years of Receipt
Between 1982 and 1991

**Chapter III**

ECON 1a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-1999

ECON 2. Percentage of Total Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of
Poverty Level: 1975-1999

ECON 3. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Official and Alternative
Poverty Measures: 1990-1999

ECON 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various
Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-1999

ECON 5. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty
During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

ECON 6. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1982 Living in Poverty
Between 1982 and 1991, by Years in Poverty and Race

ECON 7a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support
Collections: 1978-1999

ECON 7b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current
Support by Non-Custodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment (1998
Dollars): 1986-1998

ECON 8. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure: 1999

ECON 9. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 1999

WORK 1. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Race: 1999

WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High
School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2000

WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No
More than a High School Education, by Race (1995 Dollars): Selected
Years

WORK 4. Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational
Attainment: 1960-2000

WORK 5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the
Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey
Year, by Race: Selected Years

WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused
Alcohol, by Age: 1999

WORK 7. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by
Age: 1994

WORK 8. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to
17: Selected Years

WORK 9. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care by Families
with Employed Mothers: 1995

BIRTH 1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group:
1940-1999

BIRTH 2. Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, by
Race: 1940-1999

BIRTH 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 17, by Race:
1960-1999

BIRTH 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 and 19, by Race:
1960-1999

BIRTH 4. Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a
Never-Married Female Head, by Race: 1982-2000

**Appendix A**

TANF 1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

TANF 2. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Benefit per Recipient in Constant
Dollars

FSP 1. Persons Receiving Food Stamps

SSI 1. SSI Recipients by Age, 19741999

######## Appendix D

D-1. Recipiency Rates from Three Data Sources: 1993-1998

D-2. Dependency Rates from Three Data Sources: 1993-1998

#   {#section .unnumbered}

# List of Tables

**Chapter I**

SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1993-1998

SUM 2. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various
Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-1999

**Chapter II**

IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs, by Race and Age: Selected Years

IND 1b. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty
Status, Race, and Age: 1998

IND 2a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Program, Race, and Age: 1998

IND 2b. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants: 1993-1998

IND 3a. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving
AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-1999

IND 3b. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food
Stamps, by Age: 1975-1999

IND 3c. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by
Age: 1975-1999

IND 4a. Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in
AFDC/TANF: Selected Years

IND 4b. Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in
the Food Stamp Program: Selected Years

IND 4c. Percentage of Eligible Adult Units Participating in the SSI
Program, by Type: 1993-1998

IND 5a. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple
Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race and Age: 1998

IND 5b. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple
Programs (AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI): 1993-1998

IND 6. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50
Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race and Age

IND 7. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No
Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the
1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race, and Age

IND 8. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals
Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race,
and Age

IND 9. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income
from AFDC and Food Stamps Across Two Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years of
Dependency, Race, and Age

IND 10. Percentage of AFDC Recipients Across Two Ten-Year Time Periods,
by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age

IND 11a. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Beginnings Associated with
Specific Events: Selected Periods

IND 11b. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Endings Associated with Specific
Events: Selected Periods

**Chapter III**

ECON 1a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Race and Age: Selected
Years

ECON 2. Number and Percentage of Total Population Below 50, 75, 100, and
125 Percent of Poverty Level: Selected Years

ECON 3. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Alternative Poverty
Measure, by Race and Age: 1990-1999

ECON 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various
Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years

ECON 5. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty
During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race, and Age

ECON 6. Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty Across Two Ten-Year
Time Periods, by Years in Poverty, Race, and Age

ECON 7a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support
Collections: 1978-1999

ECON 7b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current
Support by Non-Custodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment (Nominal
and 1998 Dollars): 1986-1998

ECON 8a. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, by
Selected Characteristics: 1999

ECON 8b. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure: 1995-1999

ECON 9. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income and
Selected Characteristics: 1999

WORK 1a. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Race and Age: 1999

WORK 1b. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants: 1990-1999

WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High
School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2000

WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No
More than a High School Education, by Race (1995 Dollars): Selected
Years

WORK 4. Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational
Attainment: Selected Years

WORK 5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the
Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey
Year, by Race: Selected Years

WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused
Alcohol, by Age: Selected Years

WORK 7. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by
Race and Age: 1994

WORK 8. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to
17: Selected Years

WORK 9a. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care by Families
with Employed Mothers, by Selected Characteristics: 1995

WORK 9b. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care by Families
with Employed Mothers: Selected Years

BIRTH 1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group:
1940-1999

BIRTH 2. Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, by
Race: 1940-1999

BIRTH 3. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women Within Age Groups, by
Race: 1960-1999

BIRTH 4. Number and Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a
Never-Married Female Head, by Race: Selected Years

**Appendix A**

TANF 1. Trends in AFDC/TANF Caseloads, 19621999

TANF 2. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage
of Various Population Groups, 19701999

TANF 3. Total, Federal, and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, Fiscal Years
1970-1999

TANF 4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent
and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996

TANF 5. Federal and State TANF Program and Other Related Spending,
Fiscal Years 1997 to 1999

TANF 6. Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Monthly Payments, 1962-1999

TANF 7. Characteristics of AFDC/TANF Families, Selected Years 1969-1999

TANF 8. AFDC/TANF Benefits by State, Selected Fiscal Years 19781999

TANF 9. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and
1999 Family Assistance Grants Awarded Under PRWORA

TANF 10. AFDC/TANF Caseload by State, October 1989 to June 2000 Peak

TANF 11. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal
Years 19651999

TANF 12. AFDC/TANF Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State,
Selected Fiscal Years 19651999

TANF 13. Average Number of AFDC/TANF Child Recipients by State, Selected
Fiscal Years 19651999

TANF 14. AFDC/TANF Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected
Fiscal Years 19651999

FSP 1. Trends in Food Stamp Caseloads, Selected Years 19621999

FSP 2. Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, Selected Years 19751999

FSP 3. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 19801999

FSP 4. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years
19751999

FSP 5. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal
Years 19771999

FSP 6. Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years
19771999

SSI 1. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments,
19741999

SSI 2. SSI Recipiency Rates, 19741999

SSI 3. Total, Federal, and State SSI Benefit and Administration,
19741999

SSI 4. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 19741999

SSI 5. Number of Persons Receiving SSI Payments by Type of Payment,
1974-1999

SSI 6. Characteristics of SSI Recipients, by Age, Sex, Earnings/Income,
and Citizenship, Selected Years 1980-1999

SSI 7. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments and State Supplementary
Payments, Calendar Year 1999

SSI 8. SSI Recipiency Rates by State and Program Type for 1979 and 1999

SSI 9. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 19751999

#### Appendix B

B-1. Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of
Income from Various Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race and Age:
1998

**Appendix C**

C-1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups, by Race:
1940-1999

**Appendix D**

D-1. Data Sources for Indicators, Highlighting Those with Changes in
2001 Report

SUM 1_SIPP. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1993-1995

SUM 1_TRIM. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1993-1998

SUM 1_CPS. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1993-1998

IND 1a_SIPP. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs, by Race and Age: 1993-1995

IND 1a_TRIM. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs, by Race and Age: 1993-1995

IND 1a_CPS. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs, by Race and Age: 1993-1995

IND 1b_SIPP. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty
Status, Race, and Age: 1995

IND 1b_TRIM. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty
Status, Race, and Age: 1995

IND 1b_CPS. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty
Status, Race, and Age: 1995

IND 2a_SIPP. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants,

> by Program, Race, and Age: 1995

IND 2a_TRIM. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Program, Race, and Age: 1995

IND 2b_SIPP. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force
Participants: 1993-1995

IND 2b_TRIM. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor
Force Participants: 1993-1998

IND 5a_SIPP. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One,
Two, or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race and Age: 1995

IND 5a_TRIM. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One, Two
or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race and Age: 1995

IND 5b_SIPP. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One, Two
or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI): 1993-1995

IND 5b_TRIM. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple
Programs (AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, SSI): 1993-1998

WORK 1a_SIPP. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants in an Average Month, by Race and Age: 1995

WORK 1a_CPS. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants, by Race and Age: 1995

WORK 1b_SIPP. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants in an Average Month: 1990-1995

WORK 1b_CPS. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force
Participants: 1990-1999

THIS PAGE LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK

**Executive Summary**

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Department of Health and
Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on indicators and
predictors of welfare dependence. This 2001 *Indicators of Welfare
Dependence*, the fourth annual report, is the first report to provide
welfare dependency indicators for the 1996-1998 period, reflecting
changes that have taken place since enactment of the Personal
Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) in
August 1996. As directed by the Welfare Indicators Act, the report
focuses on benefits under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children
(AFDC) program, now the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF)
program; the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income
(SSI) program.

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in
degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger
or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare
programs. The amount of time over which families depend on welfare might
also be considered in assessing their degree of dependency. Although
recognizing the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring
dependence, the bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators proposed
the following definition, as one measure to examine in concert with
other key indicators of dependence and deprivation:

> A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total
> income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, food stamps and/or
> SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities.
> Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent
> on welfare.

The proposed definition is difficult to measure because of limitations
with existing data collection efforts. Most importantly, the available
data do not distinguish between cash benefits where work is required and
non-work-related cash benefits. In addition, there are time lags in the
availability of the national data from the detailed surveys that may be
best suited to measure dependence. This 2001 report uses data from the
Current Population Survey (CPS) and administrative data to provide
updated measures through 1998 for several dependency indicators, a
significant update from the 1995 measures reported last year. Other
measures are based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation
(SIPP) and other data sources. Drawing on these various data sources,
this report provides a number of key indicators of welfare recipiency,
dependence, and labor force attachment. Selected highlights from the
many findings in the report include the following:

-   In 1998, 3.8 percent of the total population was dependent in the
    sense of receiving more than half of total family income from TANF,
    food stamps, and/or SSI (see Indicator 1). This rate has fallen
    considerably from the 5.8 percent rate measured in 1993. Dependency
    rates would be lower if they could be adjusted to exclude welfare
    income associated with work required to obtain benefits.

```{=html}
<!-- -->
```
-   The drop in dependency parallels the more well-known drop in
    AFDC/TANF and food stamp caseloads. The percentage of individuals
    receiving AFDC/TANF, for example, fell from 5.4 percent to 3.2
    percent between 1993 and 1998 (see Indicator 3). Food stamp
    recipiency rates dropped from 10.5 percent to 7.3 percent over the
    same time period. Recipiency rates for TANF and food stamps fell
    again between 1998 and 1999, suggesting that dependency rates in
    1999 (not yet available) will fall below the levels reported for
    1998.

-   In an average month in 1998, more than half (56 percent) of TANF
    recipients lived in families with at least one family member in the
    labor force. Comparable figures for food stamp and SSI recipients
    were 57 and 37 percent, respectively (see Indicator 2). Labor force
    participation, particularly full-time employment, increased
    considerably among AFDC/TANF families between 1993 and 1998.

-   Long-term dependency is relatively rare. Only 4 percent of those who
    were recipients in 1982 received more than 50 percent of their
    income from AFDC and food stamps in nine or more years over a
    ten-year period. This represents less than 0.5 percent of the total
    population. Half of the 1982 recipients never received more than 50
    percent of their annual income from AFDC and food stamps over the
    1982-1991 time period (see Indicator 9).

Since the causes of welfare receipt and dependence are not clearly
known, the report also includes a larger set of risk factors associated
with welfare receipt. The risk factors are loosely organized into three
categories: economic security measures, measures related to employment
and barriers to employment, and measures of nonmarital childbearing. The
economic security risk factors include measures of poverty and
deprivation that are important not only as predictors of dependence, but
also as a supplement to the dependence indicators, ensuring that
dependence measures are not assessed in isolation. It is important to
examine whether decreases in dependency are accompanied by improvements
in family economic status or by reductions in family material
circumstances. The report includes data on the official poverty rate,
one of the most common measures of deprivation:

-   As the dependency rate fell between 1993 and 1998, the poverty rate
    for all individuals fell also, from 15.1 percent in 1993 to 12.7
    percent in 1998. The poverty rate fell again in 1999, declining to
    11.8 percent, the lowest rate since 1979 (see Economic Security Risk
    Factor 1, Figure ECON 1a).

Finally, the report has four appendices that provide additional program
data on major welfare programs, as well as alternative measures of
dependency, additional data on non-marital births, and further
information about data sources in this year's report.