**FIRE WEATHER OPERATING PLAN 2009**

**FIRE WEATHER SERVICES FOR MOST OF MISSOURI AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
EASTERN KANSAS, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY**

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="7.5in" height="5.0625in"}

**Prescribed Fire Wilson's Creek National Battlefield, November 2008
(courtesy of KY-3 TV Photography Tom Schultheis Edited Brandon Beck)**

![](media/image2.jpeg){width="1.2493055555555554in" height="1.25in"}
![](media/image3.png){width="1.4375in" height="1.3430555555555554in"}

**FIRE WEATHER OPERATING PLAN 2009**

**FIRE WEATHER SERVICES FOR MOST OF MISSOURI, AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
EASTERN KANSAS, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY**

1.  **Introduction**

    This document contains the 2008 Operating Plan for the fire weather
    forecast areas for the National Weather Service Offices (WFO) at
    Springfield, Pleasant Hill, and St. Louis, Missouri and Paducah,
    Kentucky. This is an interagency agreement for meteorological
    services between the above National Weather Service Offices and the
    following agencies:

    **The United States Forest Service**:

    Mark Twain National Forest (Missouri)

    Shawnee National Forest (Illinois)

    Land Between the Lakes National Recreation Area (Kentucky)

    **The National Park Service**:

    Ozark National Scenic Riverways (Missouri)

    Wilson's Creek National Battlefield (Missouri)

    **U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services**:

    Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge (Illinois)

    Cypress Creek National Wildlife Refuge (Illinois)

    Marais des Cygnes National Wildlife Refuge (Kansas)

    Squaw Creek National Wildlife Refuge (Missouri)

    Swan Lake National Wildlife Refuge (Missouri)

    **U.S. Department of Defense**

    Fort Campbell Public Works Business Center Environmental Division
    (Kentucky/Tennessee)

    **State of Missouri**

    Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC)

2.  **Summary of Changes (Since 2008)**

-   Added new Meteorologist-In- Charge for WFO St. Louis.

-   Minor formatting changes.

-   Minor changes to the Fire Weather Forecast Areas map in section 3
    (Figure 1).

-   For WFO Paducah, added Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge to the
    National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) list in section 6D
    (Figure 2) and the Fire Weather Forecast Areas map in section 3
    (Figure 1).

-   WFO Pleasant Hill will provide fire weather for the entire calendar
    year.

-   Added contact information for the Eastern, Southern, and Rocky
    Mountain Coordination Centers.

-   Added wording to Red Flag Warning criteria for the Springfield,
    Pleasant Hill, Paducah offices that states Fire Weather Watches and
    Red Flag Warnings can be issued at fire weather forecaster
    discretion in coordination with federal and/or state wildland fire
    agencies.

3.  **Fire Weather Support Responsibility Areas and Contact Information
    for NWS Offices**

    National Weather Service Forecast Offices are staffed 24 hours a day
    365 days a year. Service areas and contact information for each
    forecast office is depicted in Figure 1 below:
    ![](media/image4.jpeg){width="6.629166666666666in"
    height="4.674305555555556in"}

Figure 1 Forecast Areas of Responsibility and National Fire Danger
rating System (NFDRS) Forecast Points.

4.  **Contact Information:**

+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| # Contact Infor             |                                        |
| mation: WFO Springfield, MO |                                        |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Address:                    | 5805 West Highway EE Springfield, MO   |
|                             | 65802                                  |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Phone/Fax:                  | \(800\) 762-4363 / (417) 863-6209      |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Meteorologist In Charge:    | William Davis --                       |
|                             | william.davis@noaa.gov                 |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Program        | Drew Albert -- drew.albert@noaa.gov    |
| Leader:                     |                                        |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Web Page:                   | http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/           |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Services:                   |                                        |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Zone (County)  |                                        |
| Forecasts -- All Year       |                                        |
|                             |                                        |
| NFDRS Point Forecasts --    |                                        |
| 4 - Ava MO, Sinkin MO, Mt.  |                                        |
| Vernon MO, Macks Creek, MO  |                                        |
| -- All Year                 |                                        |
+-----------------------------+----------------------------------------+

+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| # Contact Inf              |                                         |
| ormation: WFO Paducah , KY |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Address:                   | 8250 Kentucky Hwy 3520 West Paducah, KY |
|                            | 42086                                   |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Phone/Fax:                 | \(800\) 533-7189 / (270) 744-3828       |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Meteorologist In Charge:   | Beverly Poole - beverly.poole@noaa.gov  |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Program       | Kelly Hooper - kelly.hooper@noaa.gov    |
| Leader:                    |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Web Page:                  | http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/            |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Services:                  |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Zone (County) |                                         |
| Forecasts -- All Year      |                                         |
|                            |                                         |
| NFDRS Point Forecasts - 10 |                                         |
| -- Carr Creek MO, Big      |                                         |
| Springs MO, Doniphan MO,   |                                         |
| Farmington MO, Dixon       |                                         |
| Springs IL, Golden Pond    |                                         |
| KY, Bean Ridge IL,         |                                         |
| Greenville KY, Ft.         |                                         |
| Campbell, TN, Crab Orchard |                                         |
| NWR, IL -- Seasonal        |                                         |
| Fall/Spring                |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+

+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| # Contact Informat         |                                         |
| ion: WFO Pleasant Hill, MO |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Address:                   | 1803 N. 7 Hwy Pleasant Hill, MO 64080   |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Phone/Fax:                 | \(800\) 438-0596 / (816) 540-5922       |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Meteorologist In Charge:   | Julie Adolphson --                      |
|                            | julie.adolphson@noaa.gov                |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Program       | Patricia Cooper --                      |
| Leader:                    | patricia.cooper@noaa.gov                |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Assistant Fire Weather     | Ryan Cutter -- ryan.cutter@noaa.gov     |
| Program Leader             |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Web Page:                  | http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/            |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Services:                  |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Zone (County) |                                         |
| Forecasts -- All Year.     |                                         |
|                            |                                         |
| NFDRS Point Forecasts -- 4 |                                         |
| -- Chillicothe MO, Atlanta |                                         |
| MO, Clinton MO, State      |                                         |
| Line, KS -- Seasonal       |                                         |
| Fall/Spring                |                                         |
+----------------------------+-----------------------------------------+

+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| # Contact                       |                                    |
|  Information: WFO St. Louis, MO |                                    |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Address:                        | 12 Missouri Research Park Drive    |
|                                 | St. Charles, MO 63304              |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Phone/Fax:                      | \(800\) 852-7497 / (636) 447-1769  |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Meteorologist In Charge:        | Wes Browning --                    |
|                                 | wes.browning@noaa.gov              |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Program Leader:    | Jim Sieveking --                   |
|                                 | jim.sieveking@noaa.gov             |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Web Page:                       |                                    |
| http://gacc.nifc.gov/eacc/      |                                    |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Services:                       |                                    |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Fire Weather Zone (County)      |                                    |
| Forecasts -- All Year           |                                    |
|                                 |                                    |
| NFDRS Point Forecasts -1 --     |                                    |
| Sullivan, MO -- All Year        |                                    |
+---------------------------------+------------------------------------+

+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| # Contact Information:            |                      |           |
| Eastern Area Coordination Center  |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| Address: BHW Federal Building 1   |                      |           |
| Federal Drive, PO Box 29 Fort     |                      |           |
| Snelling, MN 55111-4080           |                      |           |
|                                   |                      |           |
| Phone/Fax:                        |                      |           |
| 612-713-7300/612-713-7317         |                      |           |
|                                   |                      |           |
| Web Page:                         |                      |           |
| http://gacc.nifc.gov/eacc/        |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| **Contact Information:** **Rocky  |                      |           |
| Mountain Area Coordination        |                      |           |
| Center**                          |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| Address: 2850 Youngfield Ave      |                      |           |
| Lakewood, CO 80215                |                      |           |
|                                   |                      |           |
| Phone: 303-445-4300/              |                      |           |
| 1-800-494-2073                    |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| Web Page:                         |                      |           |
| http://gacc.nifc.gov/rmcc/        |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| **Contact Information: Southern   |                      |           |
| Area Coordination Center**        |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+
| Address: 1200 Ashwood Parkway,    |                      |           |
| Suite 230, Atlanta, GA 30338      |                      |           |
|                                   |                      |           |
| Phone: (678) 320-3000             |                      |           |
|                                   |                      |           |
| Web Page:                         |                      |           |
| http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/        |                      |           |
+-----------------------------------+----------------------+-----------+

**5. Service Backup**

The following NWS offices will provide service backup for fire weather
products:

+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+--------------+
|             | **WFO       | **WFO       | **WFO      | **WFO St.    |
|             | Paducah**   | Pleasant    | Spr        | Louis**      |
|             |             | Hill**      | ingfield** |              |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+--------------+
| Primary     | WFO         | WFO         | WFO St.    | WFO Pleasant |
| Backup:     | Louisville  | Springfield | Louis      | Hill (800)   |
|             | (502)       | (800)       | (800)      | 438-0596     |
|             | 968-6329    | 762-4363    | 852-7497   |              |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+--------------+
| Secondary   | WFO         | WFO Topeka  | WFO        | WFO Central  |
| Backup:     | Springfield |             | Paducah    | Illinois     |
|             | (800)       | \(785\)     | (800)      | (217)        |
|             | 762-4363    | 232-1494    | 533-7189   | 732-3089     |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+--------------+

**6**. **Basic Services**

**A. Fire Season**

> Specific dates for starting and ending routine services will be
> determined through coordination with the various user agencies and the
> National Weather Service offices.
>
> **B. Fire Weather Planning Forecast**
>
> WFOs Paducah, Springfield, and St. Louis issue daily routine forecasts
> (during locally agreed upon fire seasons) during the early morning and
> afternoon. WFO Pleasant Hill issues one early morning forecast.
> Forecast amendments will be issued any time as needed. Examples of the
> Fire Weather Planning Forecast are in Appendix B.
>
> Fire Weather Planning Forecasts will be updated when a Fire Weather
> Watch or Red Flag Warning is issued or cancelled or when forecast
> elements are deemed unrepresentative.\
> \
> Routine forecast content/format will vary somewhat from office to
> office. Fire Weather Planning Forecasts will include the following
> general components:
>
> **1.** **Discussion**
>
> The discussion should be concise, but describe the main weather
> features to adequately explain why the forecast weather will occur.
> The discussion should also highlight significant changes that will
> affect the fire environment. Typically the discussion will cover the
> next two days, however, significant changes in any forecast period
> should be discussed. A headline will be included for Fire Weather
> Watches, Red Flag Warnings, and other significant weather deemed
> appropriate by the fire weather meteorologist.
>
> **2. Cloud Cover**
>
> This element describes the sky condition for the forecast period.
>
> **3. Precipitation (Precip) Type**
>
> This is a general descriptor of the precipitation type (rain, sleet,
> snow, showers, thunderstorms, etc).

**4. Chance of Precipitation (Chance Precip (%))**

> The probability of precipitation expresses the chance that measurable
> rainfall will occur at any given point within a county zone group.
> Measurable rainfall is 0.01 inches or greater. Probability is
> expressed in percent.
>
> **5. Maximum (Max)/Minimum (Min) Temperature**
>
> Temperatures will be encoded in degrees Fahrenheit (deg F). The
> maximum temperature will be forecast for the day period, and minimum
> at night.
>
> **6. Maximum (Max)/Minimum (Min) Humidity**
>
> Relative humidity is expressed in percent. The minimum or lowest
> humidity will be forecast for the day period, and highest humidity at
> night.

**7. 20 Foot Wind**

> The forecast wind speed for the fire weather forecasts will reflect
> the 10 minute average wind that is commonly measured at fire weather
> sites. The wind direction will be forecast to the sixteen cardinal
> points of the compass and expressed in miles per hour (mph). Wind
> direction will indicate the direction the wind is blowing from **(i.e.
> SSW 15 mph).** Since most surface observation stations used for
> National Weather Service forecasts measure wind speed/direction at 10
> meters (roughly 33 feet) with a two minute average, a reduction factor
> is used to arrive at the 20 foot wind forecast.
>
> **8. Wind Shift**
>
> If a shift in wind direction associated with a frontal passage is
> expected during the period, the new direction and wind speed will be
> forecast. Because a front may take several hours to move through a
> zone/area, the approximate time or time period (i.e.
> afternoon/morning/evening/overnight) of the wind shift will be
> encoded. Significant wind shifts may also be encoded in the remarks
> section of the forecast.

**9. Chance of Precipitation (Chance Precip (%))**

> The probability of precipitation (POP) expresses the chance that
> measurable rainfall will occur at any given point within a county zone
> group. Measurable rainfall is 0.01 inches or greater. Probability is
> expressed in percent.
>
> **10. Precipitation Amounts**
>
> The expected average rainfall for a county zone group will be
> expressed in decimal notation in inches **(i.e. 0.10 to 0.50 inches,
> 1.00 to 1.50 inches).**

**11. Duration**

> This is the average duration in whole hours that precipitation will
> occur in the county zone group.
>
> **12. Mixing Height**
>
> Mixing height is the extent or depth to which smoke will be dispersed
> by means of turbulence and diffusion. The forecast of mixing height is
> expressed in feet above ground level (AGL) and is the maximum mixing
> height expected (generally during the afternoon).
>
> **13. Transport Wind**
>
> Transport wind is the average wind speed in meters/second in the
> mixing depth above the surface. These winds are good indications of
> the horizontal dispersion of suspended particles. The transport wind
> is the forecast wind at the time of maximum mixing of the atmosphere,
> normally during the mid afternoon. Usually a wind of less than 4
> meters/second restricts an agency from burning.
>
> **14**. **1700 foot (500 meter) Mixing Height Temperature**
>
> This is the surface temperature that must be reached in order for the
> mixing depth to reach 1700 feet. Once the forecast temperature is
> reached at the burn site, it can be assumed that the mixing height
> above the burn site is at least 1700 feet or 500 meters.
>
> Note: One consequence of the Clean Air Act, is that land managers must
> practice principles of careful smoke management. This is done by
> combining favorable meteorological conditions with a variety of
> prescribed fire techniques so that smoke will be readily dispersed.
> The 1700 foot/500 meter mixed layer is a common suggested minimum
> mixing layer depth for prescribed burning to limit the concentration
> of particulate matter near the ground and to limit the aerial coverage
> of limited visibility due to smoke. Local regulations or practices may
> differ.

**15. Haines Index**

> It is used to indicate the potential for wildfire growth by measuring
> the stability and dryness of the air over a fire. It is calculated by
> combining the stability and moisture content of the lower atmosphere
> into a number that correlates well with large fire growth. The
> stability term is determined by the temperature difference between two
> atmospheric layers; the moisture term is determined by the temperature
> and dew point difference. This index has been shown to be correlated
> with large fire growth on initiating and existing fires where surface
> winds do not dominate fire behavior. The Haines Index can range
> between 2 and 6. The drier and more unstable the lower atmosphere is,
> the higher the index.
>
> **16. Ventilation Rate/Dispersion Index**
>
> Ventilation Rate is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to
> disperse smoke or other pollutants. Ventilation Rate/Index can be
> defined as the product of the mixing height of the atmosphere
> multiplied by the wind speed. Higher ventilation rates result in
> greater transport of smoke away from the source, lower ventilation
> indices result in reduced transport away and therefore a greater
> near-ground impact. It depends on two components: The depth of the
> mixed layer (or unstable layer) above the ground and the average wind
> speed or transport wind within that mixed layer. The chart below
> relates qualitative values with calculated values.

  ------------- --------------------------- -----------------------------
  Ventilation                               
  Index (kt ft)                             
  = Mixing                                  
  Height (ft )                              
  x Average                                 
  Transport                                 
  Winds (kts)                               

  Excellent     \>= 150,000 kt ft           \>= 23445 m\*m/sec

  Very Good     \>= 100,000 kt ft and \<    \>= 15630 m\*m/sec and
                150,000 kt ft               \<23445 m\*m/sec

  Good          \>= 60,000 kt ft and \<     \>=9378 m\*m/sec and \<15630
                100,000 kt ft               m\*m/sec

  Fair          \>= 40,000 kt ft and \<     \>=6252 m\*m/sec and \<9378
                60,000 kt ft                m\*m/sec

  Poor          \<= 40,000 kt ft            \<=6252 m\*m/sec
  ------------- --------------------------- -----------------------------

> **17. Davis Stability Index (DSI) (WFO Paducah, WFO St. Louis only)**
>
> The Davis Stability Index is a common fire stability index parameter
> utilized primarily in the southeast United States. The formula for the
> Davis Stability Index is as follows:

Davis Stability Index (DSI) = Max Temp (deg C) - 850mb Temp (deg C)

If the difference is less than 10 deg C, it is considered a Category 1
or stable.

If the difference is 10 deg C to 14 deg C, it is considered a Category 2
or conditionally unstable.

If the difference is 15 deg C to 17 deg C, it is considered a Category 3
or unstable.

If the difference is greater than 17 deg C, it is considered a Category
4 or absolutely unstable.

> **18. Extended Forecast**
>
> A general extended forecast will be included in the fire weather
> planning forecast text. This will include expected general weather
> conditions, high and low temperatures, and 20 foot winds. The extended
> forecast will cover a period out to 7 days and should be considered
> for general planning purposes only.

**19. Remarks**

> Appropriate remarks to add value to the forecast or mark significant
> weather changes.

C.  **Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings**

> Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings will be issued when the
> combination of dry fuels and weather conditions support an extreme
> fire danger. These conditions alert land management agencies to the
> potential for widespread fire control problems.
>
> Fire Weather Watches will be issued when there is a high potential for
> a Red Flag event. The watch will be issued between 12 to 72 hours
> before the onset of warning conditions. The watch can be issued for
> all or select portions of the region.
>
> **Fire Weather Watches should not be issued, or continued, to indicate
> that low confidence or borderline warning conditions will take
> place.** In these situations, forecasters should describe the expected
> conditions and state the reasons for forecast uncertainty in the
> discussion portion of the routine planning forecast.
>
> A Red Flag Warning is used to warn of an impending, or occurring, Red
> Flag event. Its issuance denotes a high degree of confidence that
> weather and fuel conditions consistent with local Red Flag criteria
> will occur within 24 hours or less. Forecaster can issue the warning
> for all or part of their fire weather forecast area.
>
> The general criteria for the issuance of Fire Weather Watches and Red
> Flag Warnings will vary depending on the. National Weather Services
> offices and user agencies are strongly encouraged to establish local
> general criteria for the issuances of watches and warnings. See
> Appendix C for the general Red Flag criteria established by each
> forecast office. These criteria are [general parameters]{.underline}
> and they should be considered with the whole fire weather environment
> in mind.
>
> **Because of the restriction of user programs brought about by a Red
> Flag Warning, it is imperative that the warning be promptly cancelled
> when the conditions cease to exist or if the conditions are no longer
> expected to develop. The cancellation will be issued under the RFW
> product header.**
>
> **D. National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Fire Weather Point
> Forecasts and Point Forecast Terminology**
>
> The NFDRS is a quantitative means for evaluating the fire danger
> across a large area such as a forest. This complex model processes
> daily weather observations, fuel moisture, and forecasts as inputs.
> The resulting numeric output and indices suggest the severity of fire
> danger over a large area.
>
> The following are NFDRS sites covered by this Annual Operating Plan:

  ------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ------------- ------------ ------------ ----------- ----------- -----------
  **Site**      **County**   **State**   **Station   **Issuing     **Site**     **County**   **State**   **Station   **Issuing
                                         I.D.**      WFO**                                               I.D.**      WFO**

  Ava           Douglas      Missouri    238602      Springfield   Carr Creek   Shannon      Missouri    237401      Paducah

  Sinkin        Dent         Missouri    236403      Springfield   Big Springs  Carter       Missouri    239004      Paducah

  Macks Creek   Camden       Missouri    235202      Springfield   Doniphan     Ripley       Missouri    239102      Paducah

  Mt. Vernon    Lawrence     Missouri    236901      Springfield   Farmington   St. Francois Missouri    236601      Paducah

  Chillicothe   Livingston   Missouri    231301      Pleasant Hill Greenville   Muhlenberg   Kentucky    151191      Paducah

  Atlanta       Macon        Missouri    231501      Pleasant Hill Golden Pond  Trigg        Kentucky    159901      Paducah

  Clinton       Henry        Missouri    233701      Pleasant Hill Crab Orchard Williamson   Illinois    119001      Paducah
                                                                   NWR                                               

  State Line    Linn         Kansas      145801      Pleasant Hill Dixon        Pope         Illinois    119501      Paducah
                                                                   Springs                                           

  Sullivan      Franklin     Missouri    234502      St. Louis     Bean Ridge   Alexander    Illinois    119701      Paducah

                                                                   Fort         Montgomery   Tennessee   400201      Paducah
                                                                   Campbell                                          

  **Figure 2:                                                                                                        
  NFDRS Sites                                                                                                        
  Covered By                                                                                                         
  This                                                                                                               
  Operating                                                                                                          
  Plan**                                                                                                             
  ------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ------------- ------------ ------------ ----------- ----------- -----------

> NFDRS forecasts will be issued daily during designated (locally agreed
> upon) fire weather seasons. Daily issuance times will be made on an
> agency by agency basis, however, it is recommended that National
> Weather Service offices make forecasts available as soon as possible
> (after the daily 100 pm observation are available) so that land
> management agencies can calculate burn indices, projected staffing
> levels, etc. as quickly as possible.
>
> **Example of a NFDRS forecast:**

**FCST,238602,990503,13,2,72,65,1,1,S,15,M,72,54,95,35,0,0,N**

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 4%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 4%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 4%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 3%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p><strong>ID</strong></p>
<p><strong>1</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>DATE</strong></p>
<p><strong>2</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>VT</strong></p>
<p><strong>3</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>WX</strong></p>
<p><strong>4</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>TT</strong></p>
<p><strong>5</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>RH</strong></p>
<p><strong>6</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>L1</strong></p>
<p><strong>7</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>L2</strong></p>
<p><strong>8</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>DD</strong></p>
<p><strong>9</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>VV</strong></p>
<p><strong>10</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>M</strong></p>
<p><strong>11</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>TX</strong></p>
<p><strong>12</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>TN</strong></p>
<p><strong>13</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>HX</strong></p>
<p><strong>14</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>HN</strong></p>
<p><strong>15</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>D1</strong></p>
<p><strong>16</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>D2</strong></p>
<p><strong>17</strong></p></td>
<td><p><strong>Y/N</strong></p>
<p><strong>18</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>238602</strong></td>
<td><strong>990503</strong></td>
<td><strong>13</strong></td>
<td><strong>2</strong></td>
<td><strong>71</strong></td>
<td><strong>60</strong></td>
<td><strong>1</strong></td>
<td><strong>1</strong></td>
<td><strong>S</strong></td>
<td><strong>14</strong></td>
<td><strong>M</strong></td>
<td><strong>77</strong></td>
<td><strong>52</strong></td>
<td><strong>95</strong></td>
<td><strong>30</strong></td>
<td><strong>0</strong></td>
<td><strong>1</strong></td>
<td><strong>N</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**FCST**\...must always precede the forecast and each entry must be
separated by a comma.

**1. Station I.D. (ID)**

Each station forecast point has an identification number assigned to it.

**2. Date (DATE)**

> The date in the YYMMDD format. This is the valid date for the point
> forecast. A forecast valid March 1 1997 would be coded as 970301.
> (Today's product would have tomorrow's date).

**3. Valid Time (VT)**

This is the valid time for the forecast\...1300 CST tomorrow (1pm).

**4. State of Weather** **(WX)**

> Forecasters will select the highest code for state of weather which
> will describe the weather at the basic observation time the next day.
> It is important to distinguish between codes 5, 6, 7 (long duration
> stratiform precipitation) and code 8 and 9 (showers, thunderstorms). A
> forecast of code 5, 6, 7 will zero out the indices in the NFDRS. This
> is essentially like setting the wet flag to y (yes). Unless there is
> overwhelming meteorological support to justify codes 5, 6, or 7, use
> code 8 or 9 where applicable.
>
> Weather codes: 0=Clear 1=Scattered 2=Broken 3=Overcast 4=Fog 5=Drizzle
> 6=Rain 7=Snow/Sleet 8=Showers 9=Thunderstorm

**5. Temperature (TT)**

This is the valid time for the forecast\...1300 CST tomorrow (1pm).
Units are in degrees Fahrenheit (deg F).

> **6. Relative Humidity** **(RH)**

Relative humidity at basic observation time of 1300 CST tomorrow (1 pm).

**7 and 8. Lightning Activity Level (Ll)** **and** **(L2)**

> This is the predicted lightning activity level. **[This parameter is
> not forecast, rather a default value of 1 (no thunderstorms) is always
> entered.]{.underline}**
>
> L1 is the lightning activity level predicted from 1:00 PM to midnight.
> L2 is the lightning activity level from midnight to the next midnight.
> A single digit (1 through 6) will be used.

1 - [No thunderstorms]{.underline} (default value)

2 - Few building cumulus with isolated thunderstorms.

3 - Much building cumulus with scattered thunderstorms, with light to
moderate rain.

4 - Thunderstorms common, not obscuring the sky, with moderate rain.

5 - Thunderstorms common, occasionally obscuring the sky, with moderate
to heavy rain.

6 - Much building cumulus with scattered thunderstorms, dry/no rain.
(Same as 3, but dry, no rain.)

**9. Wind Direction (DD)**

Wind direction by compass points **(i.e. N, NE, E, SE, S, SW W, NW).**

**10. Wind Speed (VV)**

> This is the forecast 10-minute average 20 foot wind speed in miles per
> hour at 1:00 PM tomorrow. Since most surface observation stations used
> for National Weather Service forecasts measure wind speed/direction at
> 10 meters (roughly 33 feet) with a two minute average, a reduction
> factor is used to arrive at the 20 foot wind forecast.
>
> **11. 10 Hour Time Lag Fuel Moisture** **(M)**

The 10-hour time lag fuel moisture is entered as M for missing or left
blank.

**12. Maximum Temperature** **(TX)**

> The maximum temperature (deg F) expected during the 24-hour period
> from basic observation time today to basic observation time tomorrow.
> The maximum value cannot be lower than what was observed today or
> forecast at basic observation time tomorrow.

**13. Minimum Temperature** **(TN)**

> The minimum temperature (deg F) expected during the 24-hour period
> from basic observation time today to basic observation time tomorrow.
> The forecast minimum cannot be higher than the temperature observed or
> forecast at the basic observation time.

**14. Maximum Relative Humidity** **(HX)**

Forecast maximum humidity over the 24-hour period between basic
observation times.

**15. Minimum Relative Humidity** **(HN)**

> Forecast minimum humidity (deg F) over the 24-hour period between
> basic observation times. The minimum value forecast cannot be higher
> than the observed or forecast values at basic observation times.

**16. Precipitation Duration 1:00 PM to 5:00 AM ** **(D1)**

> The expected duration in whole hours that precipitation will fall at
> the site for the first 16 hours during the 24-hour period between
> observation times.

**17. Precipitation Duration 5:00 AM to 1:00 PM  (D2)**

> The expected duration in whole hours that precipitation will fall at
> the site for the last 8 hours during the 24-hour period between
> observation times.

**18. Wet Fuels Conditions** **(Y/N)**

> When fuels are anticipated to be wet at observation time, 1:00 PM the
> next day, a Y (Yes) should be inserted in the appropriate column in
> WIMS. If a wet fuel condition is not anticipated at 1:00 PM the next
> day, enter N (No). If snow cover is anticipated, a wet fuel condition
> should be entered.
>
> **E**. **Spot Forecasts (All WFOs)**
>
> Site specific (spot) forecasts are non-routine products issued at the
> request of the user. NWS offices will provide spot forecast service
> upon request of any federal, state, or local official required to
> support wildfire suppression operations.

For non-wildfire purposes, resources permitting, NWS offices will
provide spot forecast service under the following circumstances and
conditions:

1.  Upon request of any federal official who represents that spot
    forecast support is required under the terms of the Interagency
    Agreement for Meteorological Services ([NWS Instruction
    10-406](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004006curr.pdf)).

2.  Upon request of any state, local, or tribal official who represents
    that the spot forecast is required to carry out their wildland fire
    management responsibilities in coordination with any federal land
    management agency participating in the Interagency Agreement for
    Meteorological Services ([NWS Instruction
    10-406](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004006curr.pdf)).

3.  Upon request of any public safety official who represents that the
    spot forecast is essential to public safety. A "public safety
    official" is an employee or contract agent of a government agency at
    any level (federal, state, local, tribal, etc.) charged with
    protecting the public from hazards including wildland fires of
    whatever origin and/or other hazards influenced by weather
    conditions such as hazardous material releases.

> **[NWS offices will not provide spot forecasts to private citizens or
> commercial entities not acting as an agent of a government
> agency]{.underline}**.
>
> Requests for a spot forecast will normally be transmitted to the WFO
> via the Internet Spot Forecast Request Program (NWS Spot), telephone,
> or fax.
>
> Spot forecasts for active fires should be updated when the forecaster
> becomes aware of any significant unanticipated weather changes that
> may have an impact on fire suppression or controlled burning
> operations and/or safety of personnel. Updates can consist of a
> telephone/verbal update in lieu of a written product. Land management
> personnel should contact the WFO if forecast conditions become
> unrepresentative of the observed weather.
>
> Unless otherwise stated by the requesting agency, the forecast
> parameters of sky condition, weather, temperature, relative humidity,
> 20 foot wind, significant/sudden changes in wind speed or direction,
> along with mixing heights, transport winds, and stability, if
> available, shall be provided.
>
> Site forecast for ongoing wildfires are crucial to fighting fires and
> personnel safety. Of paramount importance are forecasts of wind
> velocity and humidity. For an ongoing wildfire, an attempt should be
> made to provide a current observation at the time a forecast is
> requested. The observation will aid the forecaster in preparing a more
> accurate site specific forecast.
>
> **1. Spot Forecast Requests Via the NWS Spot Forecast Program**
>
> Spot forecasts via the Internet can be accessed from the appropriate
> National Weather Service office's fire weather page.
>
> **2. Spot Forecast Via Fax**
>
> Persons requesting a spot forecast via fax should utilize Weather
> Service [WS Form
> D-1](http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/weather/swcc_wx_program/D1-V2005_spotform.pdf).
> This form is located also located in Appendix B of [National Weather
> Service Instruction
> 10-401](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004001curr.pdf).
> This form should be considered a manual backup to the National Weather
> Service Spot forecast system via the Internet.
>
> **3. Spot Forecast Requests Via Telephone**
>
> Spot requests via telephone should be reserved for occasions where a
> quick forecast update is needed and time restraints and/or available
> resources prohibit the use of the Internet of fax. Both the requesting
> agency and the WFO are highly encouraged to document as thoroughly as
> possible any information communicated during a phone/verbal spot
> forecast briefing.
>
> **F. Hazardous Weather Outlooks**
>
> Hazardous Weather Outlooks are issued by weather forecast offices to
> alert the general public to potentially dangerous weather situations.
> When a combination of meteorological conditions leads to an increased
> fire danger but falls short of Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning
> criteria, this product is issued to the general public. This statement
> is issued to make the public aware of a heightened fire danger and to
> discourage open burning and careless use of smoking materials.
> Approval of the user agencies is not necessary to issue this
> statement. (See Appendix B for an example).
>
> Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings will also be mentioned in
> the form of a general text message to the general public using the
> Hazardous Weather Outlook.

**7. Special Services**

Special meteorological services meet the needs of agencies that often
have unique requirements for weather support, and may best be performed
by the fire weather meteorologist away from the home forecast office.
These services usually must be initiated by the requesting agency, and
costs such as travel and per diem will be charged to a reimbursable task
number assigned for the project.

Special services may include fire weather station visits,
familiarization trips to the forest, observer training sessions, and
S-290, S-390, S-490, and other courses. The fire weather meteorologist
may be asked to attend a prescribed burn when available. If the trip
involves an overnight stay, the letter should state that the requesting
agency will pay travel expenses. A one day trip will not incur any costs
to the requesting agency. When the land management agency wishes for a
fire weather forecaster to attend a course, the same procedure for
requesting a forecaster to a station visitation should be followed,
except that specific dates should be given in the letter. The letter
will be forwarded to NWS Central Region Headquarters so that a
reimbursable task code can be assigned for the trip.

> **A. Fire Weather Stations**
>
> Supplies, equipment, and maintenance of the fire weather station are
> the responsibility of the land management agency (station owner). If a
> new station is being established, or an old station is moved to
> another location, a station number will be assigned by the fire
> weather program leader for the National Weather Service Central Region
> Headquarters located in Kansas City. The land management agency should
> provide the latitude and longitude of the new station, and the
> elevation when requesting a station number.
>
> **B. Fire Weather Services -- On Site Support**
>
> On-site forecast service is a non-routine service available from
> National Weather Service Offices with designated Incident
> Meteorologists (IMETs). The NWS will provide IMET services upon
> request of federal, state, tribal, or local government fire agencies
> in support of wildfires. This support typically includes dispatches to
> Incident Command Posts, but may also include dispatches to land
> management coordination and dispatch centers, and Area Commands.
>
> IMET support will also be considered for non-wildfire situations if
> resources permit. Such uses will be limited to requests of federal
> fire agencies participating in the Interagency Agreement ([see NWS
> Instruction
> 10-406](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004006curr.pdf)),
> and requests by a public safety official who represents such support
> as essential to public safety ([see section 4 of National Weather
> Service Instruction
> 10-401](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004001curr.pdf)).
>
> Procedures to request the services of an IMET are detailed in [NWS
> Instruction
> 10-402](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004002curr.pdf).

**8. Weather Information and Management System (WIMS) - Dissemination of
Products**

The principal method of dissemination of the observations and forecasts
is through WIMS. Observations that are entered into WIMS at the Kansas
City Computer Center are transmitted to the NWS Telecommunications
Gateway Facility in Washington D.C. The observations are collected in
bulletins that are transmitted to the National Weather Service Forecast
Offices where they are compiled into various fire weather products and
then transmitted via the NWS Telecommunications Gateway Facility to
WIMS.

**9. Signature Page**

+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Strictly, this AOP |                       |                        |
| shall be effective |                       |                        |
| on the date the    |                       |                        |
| last signature is  |                       |                        |
| placed on the      |                       |                        |
| signature section  |                       |                        |
| and it will remain |                       |                        |
| in effect until    |                       |                        |
| the date the last  |                       |                        |
| signature is       |                       |                        |
| placed on the      |                       |                        |
| signature page the |                       |                        |
| following year.    |                       |                        |
| Updates or         |                       |                        |
| amendments may be  |                       |                        |
| added in the       |                       |                        |
| interim upon       |                       |                        |
| agreement of       |                       |                        |
| affected           |                       |                        |
| signatories.       |                       |                        |
|                    |                       |                        |
| **National Weather |                       |                        |
| Service**          |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Office             | Approving Authority   | Date Signed            |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| NWS Springfield,   | MIC                   |                        |
| MO                 |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| NWS Paducah, KY    | MIC                   |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| NWS St. Louis, MO  | MIC                   |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| NWS Pleasant Hill, | MIC                   |                        |
| MO                 |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Central Region     | Regional Operations   |                        |
| Headquarters,      | Services              |                        |
| Kansas City, MO    | Meteorologist         |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
|  **User Agency:    |                       |                        |
| Department of      |                       |                        |
| Agriculture**      |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Office             | Approving Authority   | Date Signed            |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| U.S. Forest        |                       |                        |
| Service - Mark     |                       |                        |
| Twain National     |                       |                        |
| Forest             |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| U.S. Forest        |                       |                        |
| Service - Shawnee  |                       |                        |
| National Forest    |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| U.S. Forest        |                       |                        |
| Service - Land     |                       |                        |
| Between the Lakes  |                       |                        |
| National           |                       |                        |
| Recreation Area    |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| **User Agency:     |                       |                        |
| Department of      |                       |                        |
| Interior**         |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Office             | Approving Authority   | Date Signed            |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Crab Orchard       |                       |                        |
| National Wildlife  |                       |                        |
| Refuge             |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| National Park      |                       |                        |
| Service - Ozark    |                       |                        |
| Scenic Riverways   |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Cypress Creek      |                       |                        |
| National Wildlife  |                       |                        |
| Refuge             |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Marais des Cygnes  |                       |                        |
| National Wildlife  |                       |                        |
| Refuge             |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Squaw Creek        |                       |                        |
| National Wildlife  |                       |                        |
| Refuge             |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| Swan Lake National |                       |                        |
| Wildlife Refuge    |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| ###                |                       |                        |
| # User Agency: Dep |                       |                        |
| artment of Defense |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+
| #### Fort Campbe   | ####                  | ####                   |
| ll Public Works Bu |                       |                        |
| siness Center Envi |                       |                        |
| ronmental Division |                       |                        |
+--------------------+-----------------------+------------------------+

**10. Appendices**

**Appendix A - Product Identification List**

+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Product/WMO Header  | AWIPS PIL | AWIPS PIL  | AWIPS    | AWIPS    |
|                     | WFO       | WFO        | PIL WFO  | PIL WFO  |
|                     | Paducah   | Pleasant   | Spr      |          |
|                     |           | Hill       | ingfield | St.      |
|                     |           |            |          | Louis    |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Fire Weather        | SDFFWFPAH | STLFWFEAX  | S        | S        |
| Forecast/ FNUS53    |           |            | TLFWFSGF | TLFWFLSX |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Fire Weather NFDRS  | SDFFWMPAH | STLFWMEAX  | S        | S        |
| Point Forecast/     |           |            | TLFWMSGF | TLFWMLSX |
| FNUS83              |           |            |          |          |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Fire Weather Watch/ | SDFRFWPAH | STLRFWEAX  | S        | S        |
| Red Flag Warning/   |           |            | TLRFWSGF | TLRFWLSX |
| WWUS83              |           |            |          |          |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Spot Forecast       | SDFSTQPAH | STLSTQEAX  | S        | S        |
| Requests/ BMBB91    |           |            | TLSTQSGF | TLSTQLSX |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Spot Forecasts/     | SDFFWSPAH | STLFWSEAX  | S        | S        |
| FNUS73              |           |            | TLFWSSGF | TLFWSLSX |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+
| Hazardous Weather   | SDFHWOPAH | STLHWOEAX  | S        | S        |
| Outlook/ FLUS43     |           |            | TLHWOSGF | TLHWOLSX |
+---------------------+-----------+------------+----------+----------+

**Appendix B - Fire Weather Product Examples (products will vary
somewhat)**

1.  **Fire Weather Planning Forecast**

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CITY STATE

TIME-DATE (example: 300 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2001)

\...HEADLINE\... (REQUIRED for Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather
Watches\...significant fire weather feature(s) at other times
recommended...does [not]{.underline} include public warnings/advisories)

.DISCUSSION\...(concise, clear, non-technical explanation of the
current/forecasted fire weather)

SSZXXX-XXX\>XXX-DDHHMM- (UGC/FIPS coding)

GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTORS (such as land management units, political
boundaries,

geographic features, and/or fire weather zones)

TIME-DATE (repeated)

\...RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE ([as
needed]{.underline} in each appropriate zone grouping) \...

PARAMETER TONIGHT TOMORROW TOMORROW FOLLOWING

NIGHT DAY

CLOUD COVER (CLOUDY, MCLDY, PCLDY, CLEAR)

CHANCE PRECIP (%) (Percent chance precip 0-100 or areal coverage)

PRECIP TYPE (NONE, DRIZL, FRZ RAIN, SNOW/RAIN, RAIN, TSHWR)

TEMP (24H TREND) (Max/min temps as zone avg or extremes, trend not

included in 3^rd^ or 4^th^ period PM forecasts)

RH % (24H TREND) (Max/min relative humidity as zone avg or extremes,

trend not included in 3^rd^ or 4^th^ period PM

forecasts)

20FT WND MPH(VALLEY/AM) (8 pt compass or upslope/downslope and MPH w
gusts,

can be VALLEY or AM wind)

20FT WND MPH(RIDGE/PM) (8 pt compass and MPH w/gusts, can be PM or ridge
top

winds)

PRECIP DURATION (Hours of precip in period)

PRECIP BEGIN (Onset of precip probability)

PRECIP END (Cessation of precip probability)

PRECIP AMOUNT (Zone avg QPF inches)

LAL (Lightning Activity Level)

HAINES INDEX (LOW) (As applicable)

HAINES INDEX (MID) (As applicable)

MIXING HGT (AGL/MSL) (Feet or meters)

TRANSPORT WIND(KTS) (8 pt compass)

VENT RATE (KT-FT) (Mixing height times transport wind)

DISPERSION (Locally defined category, e.g. GOOD)

(OTHER LCL OPTIONS

REMARKS\...APPROPRIATE REMARKS TO ADD VALUE AND MARK SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGES.

(.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 may optionally be provided for each zone
segment)

\$\$

\[forecast for next geographical descriptor and fire weather zone
group\]

\$\$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7\... (wind required days 3-5, days 6 and 7
if appropriate; other elements per locally-established policy; days 3-7
may be grouped in any combination; may be in each zone segment versus
this location)

2.  **Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag**

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CITY STATE

TIME-DATE (example: 0830 MDT TUE SEP 02, 2001)

\...HEADLINE/S (optional)\...

DISCUSSION\...(optional, focus on adverse weather conditions)

SSZXXX-XXX\>XXX-DDHHMM- (UGC/FIPS coding)

GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTORS (including land management governing units
and/or optional fire weather zone numbers)

TIME-DATE (example: 0830 MDT TUE SEP 02, 2001)

\...HEADLINE (of what, where, when)\...

Discussion/details\... In the initial issuance of the watch or warning,
the NWS offices will include the following phrase to begin the
discussion: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A \[RED FLAG WARNING
or FIRE WEATHER WATCH\] FOR (Geographic Area).

\$\$

3.  **Hazardous Weather Outlooks**

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

100 PM CST WED NOV 20 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME

SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DAY ONE\...

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS DROPPING TO 25 TO 30 PERECENT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED GRASS FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN MISSOURI
STATE LINE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR BURNING PROJECTS TODAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT\...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN\...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

\$\$

4.  **Spot Forecast (from NWS Spot Internet Program---parameter will
    vary depending upon information requested. )**

SPOT FORECAST FOR LEVEL 2 BURN BOIS D ARC\...MDC

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

958 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2008

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON JANUARY 15.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE\...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION\...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OZARKS TODAY ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH AND WILL
BE THE

PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE BURN. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO
LIGHT

AND VARIABLE. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL

INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...SUNNY.

MAX TEMPERATURE\.....42 AT IGNITION\...MAX 45.

MIN HUMIDITY\...\.....55 PERCENT AT IGNITION\...MIN 47 PERCENT.

20-FOOT WINDS\...\....WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION\...OTHERWISE

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN

THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WIND SHIFT\...\...\....NONE

CHANCE OF PRECIP\....0 PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX\...\.....4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED

FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION\...MAX 4.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\....1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION\...MAXIMUM 1700 FT AGL.

TRANSPORT WINDS\.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 18 MPH.

TIME (CST) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM

SKY (%)\...\...\...MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR

WEATHER COV\.....

WEATHER TYPE\....NONE NONE NONE

TEMP\...\...\...\...42 45 42

RH\...\...\...\.....55 47 53

20 FT WIND\...\...S 6 S 7 SE 8

20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15

MIX HGT (FT)\....1600 1600 800

TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 S 17 S 22

CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0

HAINES INDEX\....4 3 3

.TONIGHT\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

MIN TEMPERATURE\.....MIN 30.

MAX HUMIDITY\...\.....MAX 79 PERCENT.

20-FOOT WINDS\...\....SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH.

WIND SHIFT\...\...\....NONE.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\....0 PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX\...\.....3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME

DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR

LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\....N/A.

TRANSPORT WINDS\.....N/A.

TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM

SKY (%)\...\...\...MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY

WEATHER COV\.....

WEATHER TYPE\....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE

TEMP\...\...\...\...39 37 36 35 33 33

RH\...\...\...\.....59 66 70 73 77 78

20 FT WIND\...\...SE 8 SE 10 SE 10 S 9 SE 8 SE 8

20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 15 15

MIX HGT (FT)\....400 300 300 300 300 200

TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 24 S 23 S 22 S 21 S 20

**Appendix C - Red Flag Warning Criteria**

1.  **WFO Springfield, MO**

> 20 Ft wind\>=20 mph\
> RH\<=25 pct\
> 10hr Fuel derived from RAWS site \<= 7pct\
> Sfc temp \>=50 deg F\
> \
> Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings can be issued at fire
> weather forecaster discretion in coordination with federal and/or
> state wildland fire agencies.
>
> Other notes concerning warning criteria:

There is no criterion for the duration of these parameters.

> Generally WFO Springfield will issue Red Flag Warnings only when
> vegetation is dormant or emerging, basically after the first killing
> frost in October until mid-late April. In general the window would be
> Oct 15-Apr 30. There may be cases during unusual drought, heat, and
> wind where we might issue outside of this time period, but that would
> be extremely rare. Light fuels/grasses would really need to dry out
> and go dormant and larger 100 hour, 1000 hour, 10000 hour fuels would
> need to be dryer than normal.\
> \
> Fuel Moisture Issues: WFO Springfield will also not to issue warnings
> too soon after a snow melt or widespread heavy rain, especially in
> winter months when it takes a long time for leaf litter to dry out,
> especially on north facing slopes.\
> \
> Borderline criteria: WFO Springfield may deviate from the stated
> criteria for Red Flag Warnings in areas of exposed one hour fuels
> (grassland areas) which are very wind/humidity sensitive, especially
> in drought conditions. This would most often be the northwest half of
> the forecast area, especially in southeast KS and the Osage Plains
> region of west central Missouri. Periods of very high winds (\> 30
> mph) and moderate humidity (25-35%) can lead to an extreme fire
> danger. In general, we will issue more Red Flag Warnings over
> southeast Kansas and western/central Missouri counties versus the more
> densely forested eastern Missouri Ozarks.
>
> Red Flag Warnings may be issued at the request of federal and/or state
> land management. The request must come from the Missouri-Iowa
> Interagency Coordination Center
> (<http://www.fs.fed.us/r9/forests/marktwain/fire/momoc/>) which is
> located at the Mark Twain National Forest Headquarters in Rolla, MO
> (Phone:  573-341-7484 or 7455 Fax:  573-426-6800).

2.  **WFO Pleasant Hill, MO**

> 20 Ft wind\>=20 mph\
> RH\<=25 pct\
> 10hr Fuel derived from RAWS site \<= 7pct\
> Sfc temp \>=50 deg F
>
> Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings can be issued at fire
> weather forecaster discretion in coordination with wildland fire
> agencies.
>
> Other notes concerning warning criteria:

There is no criterion for the duration of these parameters.

> Generally WFO Pleasant Hill will issue Red Flag Warnings only when
> vegetation is dormant or emerging, basically after the first killing
> frost in October until mid-late April. In general the window would be
> Oct 15-Apr 30. There may be cases during unusual drought, heat, and
> wind where we might issue outside of this time period, but that would
> be extremely rare. Light fuels/grasses would really need to dry out
> and go dormant and larger 100 hour, 1000 hour, 10000 hour fuels would
> need to be dryer than normal.\
> \
> Fuel Moisture Issues: WFO Pleasant Hill will not issue Red Flag
> Warnings too soon after a snow melt or widespread heavy rain,
> especially in winter months when it takes a long time for leaf litter
> to dry out, especially on north facing slopes.

3.  **WFO Paducah, KY**

> 20ft 10 min winds \>15 mph\
> RH \< 25%\
> 10 hr fuels \< 9%
>
> Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings can be issued at fire
> weather forecaster discretion in coordination with wildland fire
> agencies.

4.  **WFO St. Louis, MO**

> 20 Ft wind\>=20 mph\
> RH\<=25 pct\
> 10hr Fuel derived from RAWS site \<= 7pct\
> Sfc temp \>=50 deg F