**Agenda**

**Northeast Regional Operational Workshop X**

**Albany, New York**

**Wednesday, November 5, 2008**

**9:00 am**

**Welcoming Remarks**

Eugene P. Auciello, Meteorologist In Charge

Warren R. Snyder, Science & Operations Officer

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

**Session A -- Cool Season Topics / Winter Weather**

**Session Chair -- Joseph P. Villani**

**9:05 am**

**The Inland Extent of Lake Effect Snow Bands in Central and Eastern New
York**

Joseph P. Villani

NOAA/National Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

**9:25 am**

**The 8-9 March 2008 Winter Storm in Upstate New York: An Example of a
"Multi-Hazard" Event**

Brian J. Frugis

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, New York

**9:45 am**

**A Further Investigation of Mohawk Hudson Convergence Cases**

Hugh W. Johnson IV

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, New York

**10:05 am**

**Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic during the 2005--06 and
2006--07 Cool Seasons**

Brian Silviotti

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**10:25 am**

**Strong Polar Anticyclone Activity over the Northern Hemisphere and an
Examination of the Alaskan Anticyclone**

Justin E. Jones

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**10:45 am**

**Break**

Beverages & Snacks for sale in Rotunda by Capital District Chapter of
the AMS

**Session B -- Ensemble Forecasting and Modeling**

**Session Chair -- Warren R. Snyder**

**11:10 am**

**Operational High Resolution Modeling for the Vancouver 2010 Olympics**

R. McTaggart-Cowan

Numerical Weather Prediction Research Division, Meteorological Service
of Canada, Quebec, Canada

**11:30 am**

**Customization of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System for**

**Industrial Site Operations Applications**

Anthony P. Praino

IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York

**11:50 am**

**Using Short Range Ensemble Forecasts and High Resolution Model Output
to Assess the Potential for Tornadoes across Southeast Virginia on 28
April 2008**

Josh Korotky

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

**12:10 pm**

**Validation of Storm Surge Models for the New York Bight and Long
Island Regions and the Impact of Ensembles**

Tom Di Liberto

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State
University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

**12:30 pm**

**Lunch**

**2:00 pm**

**Use of Mesoscale Ensemble Weather Predictions to Improve Short-Term
Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts**

Michael Erickson

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State
University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

**2:20 pm**

**Northeast Regional Ensemble Simulations of the**

10 February 2008 Lake Effect Snow Event: WRF Wind Biases and their
Implications on Forecasted Snow Band Position

Justin Arnott

NOAA/National Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

**2:40 pm**

**The Ambrose Jet: Climatology and Simulations of Warm-Season Coastally
Enhanced Winds in the New York Bight Region**

Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State
University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

**3:00 pm**

**Verification of SREF Aviation Forecasts at Binghamton, NY**

Justin Arnott

NOAA/National Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

**3:20 pm**

**Break**

Beverages & Snacks for sale in Rotunda by Capital District Chapter of
the AMS

**Session C -- General Session and Keynote Presentation**

**Session Chair -- Neil A. Stuart**

**3:50 pm**

**Societal Impacts of Severe Weather -- The Future of Prediction,
Communication and Post-Event Analysis**

Neil A. Stuart

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, New York

**4:10 pm**

**A New Hampshire Ground-Level Ozone Pollution Forecasting Tool Using
Meteorological Criteria**

Laura L. Landry

Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry, Plymouth State
University, Plymouth, New Hampshire

**4:30 pm**

**Keynote Presentation**

Introduction -- Lance Bosart

**The Explicit Prediction of Convective Storms: Progress and Pitfalls**

Morris Weisman

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale
Meteorology Division, Boulder, Colorado

**6:00 pm**

**ADJOURN**

**Agenda**

**Northeast Regional Operational Workshop X**

**Albany, New York**

**Thursday, November 6, 2008**

**Session C -- General Session (Continued)**

**8:30 am**

**2007-8 Verification of the HPC Winter Weather Desk and Upcoming
Changes to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Short Range
Ensemble Forecast System**

Dan Petersen\
NWS/NCEP Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

**8:50 am**

**A Project to Improve Forecasts of Radiation Fog at Elmira, New York**

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

**9:10 am**

**Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather
Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations**

Jeffrey Tongue

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Upton, New York

**9:30 am**

**A Distributed Flash Flood Forecasting Rainfall-Runoff Model Applied to
Watersheds in the Northeast United States**

Michael Schaffner

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

**9:50 am**

**Break**

Beverages & Snacks for sale in Rotunda by Capital District Chapter of
the AMS

**Session D -- Warm Season / Convection**

**Session Chair -- Steve R. DiRienzo**

**10:10am**

**Severe Squall Line Across Quebec on August 18th 2008**

**An Overview**

Robert Michaud

Quebec Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada,
Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec

**10:30 am**

**Radar Characteristics of the July 2008 New Hampshire Tornado:
Precursor and Tornadogenesis Stages**

John Cannon

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Gray, Maine

**10:50 am**

**The Mesoscale Environment Associated with the Formation and
Maintenance**

**of the 24 July 08 New Hampshire Tornado**

Mike Cempa

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Gray, Maine

**11:10 am**

**A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S.**

**John Murray**

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State
University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

**11:30 am**

**Convective System Morphology over Northeast United States**

**Kelly Lombardo**

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State
University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

**11:50 am**

**Preferred Regions of Convective Development over Northern New England
as a Function of Flow Regime: Southwesterly Flow Case Studies**

Jennifer Q. Belge

Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry Plymouth State
University, Plymouth, New Hampshire

**12:10 pm**

**Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan**

Nicholas D. Metz

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**12:30 pm**

**Lunch**

**Session E -- CSTAR Projects, and Related Topics**

**Session Chair - Tomas A. Wasula**

**2:00 pm**

**A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant Severe Weather
Event Across New York and Western New England**

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, New York

**2:20 pm**

**A Diagnostic Analysis of a Difficult-to-Forecast Cutoff Cyclone from
the 2008 Warm Season**

Matthew A. Scalora

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**2:40 pm**

**A High-Resolution Climatology and Composite Study of Mesoscale Band
Evolution within Northeast U.S. Cyclones**

David R. Novak

NOAA/NWS Eastern Region Headquarters, Scientific Services Division,
Bohemia, New York

**3:00 pm**

**The 2008 "PRE-Season" In Review: A Comparison of Tropical Cyclones
Fay, Hanna, and Ike with Regards to Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE)
Development**

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

**3:20 pm**

**Break**

Beverages & Snacks for sale in Rotunda by Capital District Chapter of
the AMS

**3:40 pm**

**Use of the Nondivergent Wind for Diagnosing Banded Precipitation
Systems**

Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr.

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**4:00 pm**

**A Climatology of High Lapse Rates and Associated Synoptic-Scale Flow
Patterns over North America and the Northeast US**

Jason M. Cordeira

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**4:20 pm**

**Here a TC, There a TC, Everywhere a TC: The \"Spin\" on the Active
Part of the North Atlantic 2008 TC Season**

Lance F. Bosart

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences , University at Albany,
State University of New York, Albany, New York

**5:00 pm**

**ADJOURN**

**6:30pm**

**CSTAR Dinner at Buca di Beppo Italian Restaurant**

**44 Wolf Road, Colonie, New York**

**NROW XI will be held November 4-5, 2009**