Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Elida

(EP062008)

11-19 July 2008

James L. Franklin

National Hurricane Center

28 September 2008

Elida was a category 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)
that did not affect land.

a.  Synoptic History

    Elida formed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of
    Central America on 8 July, although there is little prior evidence
    of the wave in the Atlantic basin. The system had enough
    organization to warrant a Dvorak classification by 0000 UTC 10 July,
    when it was about 250 n mi south of the coast of Guatemala. By 1200
    UTC that day a surface low had formed, although convection
    associated with the system remained quite limited. Early on 11 July
    the organization and amount of the convection increased, and it is
    estimated that a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 11 July,
    when the system was centered about 315 n mi south-southeast of
    Puerto Angel, Mexico.

    The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in
    Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1[^1]. A low- to mid-level ridge extended westward from the
    Gulf of Mexico across western Mexico, and the depression initially
    moved west-northwestward to the south of this feature. Easterly
    shear that had been present during the initial development of the
    cyclone appeared to lessen, and the depression became a tropical
    storm near 0600 UTC 12 July, about 200 n mi south of Puerto Angel.
    Elida gradually strengthened as it continued west-northwestward on
    12 and 13 July, turning westward the following day as a mid- to
    upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula weakened.
    During this period the center of Elida remained about 175-200 n mi
    off the Pacific coast of Mexico, far enough offshore for the cyclone
    to have little or no impact on the weather at the coastline. Elida
    attained hurricane strength near 1200 UTC 14 July while centered
    about 300 n mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and reached an
    estimated intensity of 75 kt later that day.

    Over the next two days Elida moved westward over open waters to the
    south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. An increase in easterly
    shear could have caused a slight weakening of the hurricane on 15
    July. However, on 16 July the cloud pattern became more symmetric
    and microwave imagery showed an eye feature developing. Even though
    Elida was very near the 26°C sea surface temperature isotherm, it
    strengthened to a peak intensity of 90 kt near 1800 UTC 16 July,
    when the center was located about 550 n mi southwest of Cabo San
    Lucas, Mexico. Early on 17 July Elida crossed the 26°C isotherm and
    the eye, which had earlier become apparent in conventional imagery,
    disappeared. Easterly shear and cooler waters combined to induce a
    weakening trend, with the cyclone falling below hurricane intensity
    early on 18 July, and weakening to a depression a day later. Despite
    maintaining a well-defined circulation, Elida was unable to generate
    deep convection after about 0600 UTC 19 July, thus marking the
    degeneration of the system to a remnant low about 1300 n mi east of
    the Hawaiian Islands. The low moved just south of due west until
    dissipating into an open trough about 600 n mi east-southeast of the
    Hawaiian Islands.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Elida (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). Data
    and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others,
    were also useful in tracking Elida.

    There were no ship or land-based reports of tropical storm force
    winds associated with Elida.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Elida.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The genesis of Elida was not well forecast. The disturbance that
    eventually became Elida was introduced into the Tropical Weather
    Outlook 48 h prior to genesis, but experimental genesis forecasts
    did not reach the "high" category (greater than 50% chance of
    genesis within 48 h) until after the system was designated a
    tropical cyclone in the final best track. Upper-level winds were
    considered to be less than optimal for development.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 2. Average official track errors for Elida were 28,
    45, 53, 54, 52, 135, and 242 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged
    from 28 at 12 h to 10 at 120 h. These errors are considerably
    smaller than the average 5-year official track errors, except at 120
    h (Table 2), and smaller than nearly all the objective guidance.

    Average official intensity errors (Table 3) were 6, 10, 11, 13, 15,
    18, and 17 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts,
    respectively. For comparison, the average long-term official
    intensity errors are 6, 10, 14, 16, 19, 19, and 19 kt, respectively.
    The intensity errors were uniformly negative (i.e., the forecast
    intensity was too low) from genesis to the time of Elida's peak
    intensity. This appears to have been due to an overestimate of the
    effects of the cooler waters that Elida was approaching.

Watches and warnings were not required for Elida.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Elida, 11-19 July
2008.

+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| Dat    | La     | Lo      | Pressure | Wind     | Stage            |
| e/Time | titude | ngitude |          | Speed    |                  |
|        |        |         | (mb)     |          |                  |
| (UTC)  | (°N)   | (°W)    |          | (kt)     |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 11 /   | 11.1   | 93.9    | 1007     | 30       | tropical         |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          | depression       |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 12 /   | 11.7   | 95.2    | 1006     | 30       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 12 /   | 12.3   | 96.6    | 1005     | 35       | tropical storm   |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 12 /   | 12.9   | 98.1    | 1002     | 45       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 12 /   | 13.5   | 99.6    | 1000     | 45       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 13 /   | 14.1   | 101.0   | 997      | 50       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 13 /   | 14.6   | 102.4   | 996      | 50       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 13 /   | 15.0   | 103.6   | 994      | 55       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 13 /   | 15.3   | 104.9   | 994      | 55       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 14 /   | 15.5   | 106.2   | 994      | 55       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 14 /   | 15.6   | 107.4   | 991      | 60       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 14 /   | 15.7   | 108.4   | 987      | 65       | hurricane        |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 14 /   | 15.8   | 109.2   | 981      | 75       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 15 /   | 16.0   | 109.8   | 981      | 75       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 15 /   | 16.2   | 110.7   | 983      | 70       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 15 /   | 16.3   | 111.7   | 984      | 70       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 15 /   | 16.3   | 112.7   | 985      | 65       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.3   | 113.7   | 986      | 65       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.4   | 114.9   | 983      | 70       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.6   | 116.0   | 981      | 75       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.9   | 117.2   | 970      | 90       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.2   | 118.4   | 970      | 90       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.1   | 119.9   | 974      | 85       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.1   | 121.3   | 977      | 80       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.2   | 122.7   | 982      | 70       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 18 /   | 17.4   | 124.0   | 987      | 65       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 18 /   | 17.6   | 125.3   | 994      | 55       | tropical storm   |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 18 /   | 17.8   | 126.7   | 996      | 50       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 18 /   | 18.0   | 128.1   | 1000     | 40       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 19 /   | 18.2   | 129.3   | 1003     | 35       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 19 /   | 18.0   | 130.5   | 1004     | 30       | tropical         |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          | depression       |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 19 /   | 17.8   | 131.6   | 1005     | 30       | low              |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 19 /   | 17.5   | 132.8   | 1006     | 30       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.3   | 134.1   | 1007     | 30       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.3   | 135.5   | 1008     | 25       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.2   | 137.1   | 1009     | 25       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.0   | 138.6   | 1009     | 25       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 21 /   | 16.9   | 140.0   | 1009     | 25       | \"               |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 21 /   | 16.7   | 141.5   | 1009     | 25       | \"               |
| 0600   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 21 /   | 16.5   | 143.2   | 1010     | 25       | \"               |
| 1200   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 21 /   | 16.3   | 144.9   | 1010     | 25       | \"               |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 22 /   |        |         |          |          | dissipated       |
| 0000   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.9   | 117.2   | 970      | 90       | minimum pressure |
| 1800   |        |         |          |          |                  |
+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+------------------+

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERTable 2.
Track forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Elida,
11-19 July 2008. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of
forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast
are shown in boldface type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 33    | 59    | 89    | 129   | 187   | 229   | 286   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 31    | 50    | **51  | **46  | 92 (  | 135 ( |       |
|           | (13)  | (12)  | (     | (     | 4)    | 1)    |       |
|           |       |       | 10)** | 8)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 32    | 52    | 71    | 92    | 122   | 219   | 456   |
|           | (28)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 34    | 49    | 66    | 92    | 148   | 191   | **232 |
|           | (28)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (17)  | (13)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 9)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 39    | 65    | 84    | 101   | 194   | 361   | 639 ( |
|           | (29)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (15)  | (11)  | 5)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 44    | 78    | 110   | 143   | 215   | 297 ( |       |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (17)  | 7)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 39    | 74    | 111   | 147   | 97    | **125 | **183 |
|           | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (20)  | (13)  | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 10)** | 6)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 35    | 64    | 85    | 101   | 148   | 182 ( |       |
|           | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (13)  | 7)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EGRI      | 37    | 65    | 88    | 106   | 136   | 142 ( |       |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (13)  | 7)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | 31    | 53    | 67    | 83    | 144   | 267   | 412 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (18)  | (17)  | (14)  | (11)  | 8)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 49    | 97    | 149   | 196   | 257   | 257   | **217 |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 11)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 45    | 86    | 132   | 179   | 249   | 264   | **229 |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 11)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 51    | 85    | 111   | 128   | 163   | 169   | **195 |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 10)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | 34    | 73    | 131   | 206   | 339   | 407   | 463 ( |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | 8)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TVCN      | 31    | 49    | 61    | 71    | 74    | **131 | 257   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (18)  | (     | (10)  |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 14)** |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | **27  | **42  | **48  | **46  | 60    | **127 |       |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | (10)  | (     |       |
|           | 22)** | 20)** | 18)** | 16)** |       | 6)**  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 31    | 48    | 55    | 60    | 57    | **116 | 313 ( |
|           | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (16)  | (     | 5)    |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 13)** |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 28    | 45    | 53    | 54    | 52    | 135   | 242   |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 31.9  | 55.1  | 77.4  | 97.9  | 136.2 | 180.1 | 226.1 |
| Official  | (     | (     | (979) | (849) | (620) | (439) | (293) |
|           | 1282) | 1129) |       |       |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2003-2007 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 3. Intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Hurricane Elida, 11-19 July 2008. Forecast errors (kt) are followed by
the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC
official forecast are shown in boldface type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OCD5      | 7.7   | 12.6  | 13.5  | *     | *     | *     | 19.2  |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | *12.3 | *13.1 | *17.5 | (11)  |
|           |       |       |       | (     | (     | (     |       |
|           |       |       |       | 23)** | 19)** | 15)** |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI      | 9.0   | 13.3  | 14.8  | 21.4  | 36.1  | 39.9  | 40.0  |
|           | (28)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 8.4   | 13.2  | 17.4  | 20.6  | 24.6  | 33.4  | 34.0  |
|           | (28)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (17)  | (13)  | ( 9)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP      | 5.9   | 10.6  | 13.4  | 13.8  | 16.0  | *     | *     |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | *15.1 | *10.7 |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 14)** | 10)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 5.9   | 10.6  | 13.4  | 13.8  | 16.0  | *     | *     |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | *15.1 | *10.7 |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 14)** | 10)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 6.3   | 11.0  | 12.2  | 15.6  | 21.4  | 27.7  | 39.6  |
|           | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (16)  | (13)  | ( 5)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | 6.7   | 11.0  | 13.0  | 16.0  | 21.8  | 24.5  | 21.2  |
|           | (27)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (17)  | (13)  | ( 9)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 5.5   | 9.6   | 11.3  | 12.7  | 15.3  | 17.9  | 17.0  |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.2   | 10.4  | 13.9  | 16.3  | 18.7  | 19.2  | 19.1  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (979) | (848) | (620) | (439) | (293) |
|           | 1282) | 1129) |       |       |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2003-2007 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTER![](media/image1.jpeg){width="7.875694444444444in"
height="6.085416666666666in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Elida,
11-19 July 2008.

![](media/image2.png){width="8.24375in" height="5.972222222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Elida, 11-19
July 2008.

![](media/image3.png){width="8.24375in" height="5.972222222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Elida, 11-19 July
2008. Number range CHAPTER

[^1]: A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii,
    can be found on line at <ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf>. Data for the
    current year's storms are located in the *btk* directory, while
    previous years' data are located in the *archive* directory.