Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Franklin

21-29 July 2005

Richard D. Knabb

National Hurricane Center

17 March 2006

Franklin moved erratically over the western Atlantic between Bermuda and
North America without significant impacts on land.

a.  Synoptic History

    The tropical wave that led to the formation of Tropical Storm
    Franklin emerged from the west coast of Africa on 10 July. The wave
    generated little deep convection during its first day or so over
    water. After it passed the Cape Verde Islands, a distinct but small
    area of deep convection persisted near the apex of the wave as it
    moved across the tropical Atlantic during 12-14 July, but vertical
    wind shear and cooler waters hindered development. By 15 July, when
    the wave was about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles,
    its satellite signature had become large and very well-defined, and
    while deep convection had increased in coverage, it was poorly
    organized. The system changed little during the next three days
    while it continued westward.

    By the time the wave arrived over the Lesser Antilles late on 18
    July, nearly all deep convection had dissipated, apparently due to
    wind shear to the east of an upper-level trough over the Caribbean
    Sea. The southern portion of the wave proceeded through the
    Caribbean Sea during the next few days and eventually spawned
    Tropical Storm Gert over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile,
    the upper-level trough weakened and moved northwestward, allowing
    modest anticyclonic upper-level flow to become superimposed on the
    northern portion of the wave by late on 19 July. Deep convection
    resumed and became concentrated north of Hispaniola the next day.
    Early on 21 July, surface pressures fell in and near the central and
    southeastern Bahamas, but a closed surface circulation did not yet
    appear to have formed.

    As the system proceeded northwestward just east of the Bahamas, the
    deep convection began to exhibit curved banding, and at 1200 UTC the
    system received its first Dvorak classifications by the Tropical
    Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis
    Branch (SAB). A very pronounced mid-level circulation was clearly
    evident by about 1600 UTC. Aircraft reconnaissance reports a few
    hours later, around 2030 UTC, indicated that a closed low-level
    circulation also had developed. It is estimated that a tropical
    depression had formed by 1800 UTC 21 July, centered about 60 n mi
    east of the island of Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas. The
    "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Fig.
    1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1.

    The newly-formed depression strengthened, and by 0000 UTC 22 July it
    had become a 40-kt tropical storm about 70 n mi east-southeast of
    the island of Great Abaco in the northwestern Bahamas. However, most
    of the winds and rains of Franklin were east of its center and not
    over the Bahamas. Initially the cyclone moved northwestward within a
    relative weakness in the subtropical ridge. It turned northward
    through the weakness on 22 July, but strengthening was very limited
    that day by westerly shear on the northern extent of the upper-level
    anticyclone associated with Gert. As Franklin gained a little more
    latitude and Gert moved westward, the shear impacting Franklin
    abated early on 23 July and allowed it to strengthen some more.
    Franklin reached its peak intensity of 60 kt at 2100 UTC that day
    while centered about 275 n mi east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. The
    tropical storm also turned northeastward on 23 July, influenced by a
    mid-latitude upper-level trough that emerged off the east coast of
    the United States. However, that trough was too far north to carry
    Franklin very far out to sea. It bypassed the tropical storm, but in
    its wake it left strong northwesterly vertical shear that caused
    Franklin to weaken on 24 and 25 July. Franklin's track during those
    two days was generally eastward but quite erratic, especially late
    on both days when the exposed low-level center meandered northwest
    of the deep convection with little or no net forward motion.
    Franklin's intensity decreased by 1800 UTC 25 July to 35 kt, which
    it maintained throughout the next day. The storm turned northward on
    26 July as a deep layer ridge built to its east. Its center slowly
    passed about 175 n mi west of Bermuda that day, and sustained winds
    of tropical storm force remained west of that island.

    Franklin continued slowly northward between Bermuda and North
    Carolina during 27-28 July. Wind shear gradually relaxed during this
    period, and Franklin regained some strength, reaching an intensity
    of 50 kt early on the 28th. A middle latitude trough and associated
    cold front reached the east coast of the northeastern United States
    late on 28 July, forcing Franklin to turn northeastward. The
    tropical storm steadily accelerated on 29 July and its center passed
    about 250 n mi south of Nova Scotia. Franklin transformed into an
    extratropical cyclone by 0000 UTC 30 July and passed just south of
    Cape Race, Newfoundland later that day. It was absorbed by a larger
    extratropical system over the extreme North Atlantic the next day.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Franklin (Figs. 2 and 3) include data from
    satellites, aircraft, conventional land-based surface observing
    sites, ocean buoys, and ships. Selected ship and drifting buoy
    reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Franklin
    are given in Table 2. Satellite observations include geostationary
    satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB
    and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). Microwave satellite
    data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, and National
    Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellites including the
    Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), QuikSCAT, and Aqua were
    also useful in tracking Franklin. Since Franklin was close to land
    areas during the first several days of its life span, six missions
    were flown into the storm during 21-25 July by the 53rd Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command.
    These missions provided 23 center fixes on Franklin, as well as many
    flight-level and dropwindsonde observations.

    The first reconnaissance aircraft mission into Franklin reported
    1000-ft flight-level winds of 48 kt at 2114 UTC 21 July. Using the
    average 80% adjustment from that altitude yields an estimated
    surface wind of 38 kt. The aircraft then measured 57 kt at 1000 ft
    at 2318 UTC, which would on average correspond to 46 kt surface
    winds. However, a QuikSCAT overpass at about the same time estimated
    surface winds only as strong as about 35 kt, although due to the
    instrument's resolution that might be a slight underestimate. Based
    on these data the best track intensity at 0000 UTC 22 July is set to
    40 kt, and Franklin had probably become a tropical storm by about
    2100 UTC 21 July. The strongest flight-level wind measured during
    subsequent missions into Franklin was 63 kt at 850 mb, measured at
    1543 UTC 23 July. This observation corresponds to a surface wind of
    about 50 kt using an average 80% adjustment from 850 mb. During that
    same mission, a dropsonde measured 10-m winds of 56 at 1337 UTC, and
    another dropsonde measured 59 kt at 1613 UTC; surface wind estimates
    derived from the mean wind speed in the lowest 150 m of these
    profiles were 47 and 56 kt, respectively. Meanwhile, visual
    observations from the aircraft during this mission provided surface
    wind estimates as strong as 65 kt. Finally, QuikSCAT overpasses at
    1020 UTC and 2341 UTC 23 July both estimated maximum surface winds
    of 55 kt. Based on all of these data, Franklin's peak best track
    intensity is set to 60 kt at 1200 and 1800 UTC 23 July.

    During the final reconnaissance mission on 25 July, when aircraft
    wind data indicated Franklin's intensity had decreased to 40 kt, the
    aircraft also measured via dropsonde a pressure of 1000 mb at 1429
    UTC. However, the surface wind measured by that dropsonde was 19 kt,
    so the actual central pressure was probably about 999 mb. This
    pressure is lower than what had been measured on earlier missions,
    even compared to 1001 mb when Franklin was at its peak intensity of
    60 kt on 23 July. Surrounding surface observations reveal that
    surface pressures fell markedly in Franklin's nearby environment
    during 23-25 July. This fact, along with the overall decrease in
    deep convection following peak intensity, helps to explain why the
    maximum sustained winds had decreased even though the pressure had
    also decreased, albeit only slightly.

    Although the center of Franklin brushed the Bahamas and passed near
    Bermuda and southeastern Canada, no reports of winds of tropical
    storm force, either sustained or in gusts, were received from any
    land locations. The storm produced wind gusts as strong as 32 kt in
    Bermuda on 26 July. The center of Franklin passed almost directly
    over buoy 44141 (Laurentian Fan, operated by Environment Canada) at
    about 2300 UTC 29 July, when the buoy reported a minimum pressure of
    1000.8 mb. The maximum sustained wind reported by that buoy was only
    31 kt at 2100 UTC that day, but ship V7GY3 (Table 2) and QuikSCAT
    both measured surface winds of about 50 kt up to 90 n mi south of
    the circulation center at about the same time. The large radius of
    maximum winds was one of many indications that Franklin had
    transformed into an extratropical cyclone late on 29 July.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    There were no reports of damages or casualties associated with
    Tropical Storm Franklin.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWO) issued by the National Hurricane
    Center first mentioned on 12 July the tropical wave that eventually
    led to the genesis of Franklin. An increased potential for
    development of a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic, which
    did not occur, was conveyed when the wave was near the Cape Verde
    Islands. The status of the wave was updated in the TWO for the next
    several days as it crossed the Atlantic. The TWOs issued during this
    period were in general consistent in conveying that, at most, only
    slow development was possible. When deep convection faded as the
    wave moved closer to the Windward and Leeward Islands, mention of
    the wave was removed from the TWO on 17 July. The same wave was
    reintroduced into the TWO during the afternoon of 19 July once deep
    convection resumed. This occurred about 48 hours prior to tropical
    cyclogenesis and when the wave was over the eastern Caribbean and
    the Lesser Antilles. These later Outlooks in general properly
    anticipated that upper-level winds would not become conducive for
    development until the wave reached the Bahamas on 21 July. However,
    an increased potential for the formation of a tropical cyclone was
    not conveyed in the TWO until a few hours prior to when it is
    estimated to have become a depression.

    Average official (OFCL) track errors (with the number of cases in
    parentheses) for Franklin were 38 (31), 67 (29), 80 (27), 95 (25),
    175 (21), 288 (17), and 451 (13) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72,
    96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The corresponding average
    official track errors for the 10-yr period 1995-2004[^1] are 42, 75,
    107, 138, 202, 236, and 310 n mi, respectively (Table 3). OFCL track
    errors during Franklin were somewhat less than the long-term
    averages through 72 h but were greater than the long-term averages
    at 96 and 120 h. In general, the official forecasts on average
    outperformed nearly all model guidance available at the time
    forecasts were issued. However, the magnitudes of the errors in both
    the official forecasts and the various models were quite large at 96
    and 120 h. In fact, many dynamical models in general did not perform
    very well at all during Franklin. Two factors seem to have
    contributed to these sub-par performances. First, forecasting the
    track of a sheared tropical cyclone is generally more difficult than
    that of one less sheared, and the strong shear in Franklin's
    environment contributed to its erratic track. Second, many of the
    models prematurely anticipated Franklin to race northeastward into
    the middle latitude westerlies. Many of the official forecasts
    followed suit, although to a lesser degree which contributed to
    smaller OFCL errors as compared to most of the models. However, even
    the official forecasts had no skill at 120 h, since OFCL errors were
    on average larger than the 5-day climatology and persistence (CLP5)
    model at that lead time (Table 3).

    Average official intensity errors were 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 18 and 17 kt
    for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively.
    For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr
    period 1995-2004^1^ are 6, 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, and 22 kt,
    respectively. OFCL intensity errors were therefore somewhat less
    than the 10-year averages, except at 72 h. Official forecasts during
    the first two days after genesis properly forecast Franklin to
    approach hurricane strength north of the Bahamas, but in general
    they did not anticipate the subsequent weakening when it meandered
    eastward during 24-25 July. Later official forecasts did not
    anticipate the re-strengthening of Franklin northwest of Bermuda.
    The SHIPS model was a little closer to capturing this
    re-strengthening, and as a result it outperformed the official
    forecasts on average at 48-96 h. Official forecast errors were
    otherwise very similar to those of SHIPS.

Tropical storm watches and warnings issued in association with Tropical
Storm Franklin are summarized in Table 4.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Tropical Storm Franklin,
21-29 July 2005.

+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| D        | La     | Lo      | P       | Wind      | Stage          |
| ate/Time | titude | ngitude | ressure | Speed     |                |
|          |        |         |         |           |                |
| (UTC)    | (N)   | (W)    | (mb)    | (kt)      |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 21 /     | 25.0   | 75.0    | 1010    | 30        | tropical       |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           | depression     |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 22 /     | 25.7   | 75.9    | 1009    | 40        | tropical storm |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 22 /     | 26.2   | 76.4    | 1008    | 40        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 22 /     | 26.6   | 76.8    | 1007    | 45        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 22 /     | 27.4   | 76.7    | 1006    | 45        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 23 /     | 28.1   | 76.6    | 1003    | 45        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 23 /     | 28.7   | 76.1    | 1001    | 50        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 23 /     | 29.2   | 75.4    | 1001    | 60        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 23 /     | 29.7   | 74.7    | 1001    | 60        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 24 /     | 30.1   | 73.5    | 1001    | 55        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 24 /     | 30.3   | 72.6    | 1001    | 55        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 24 /     | 30.7   | 71.9    | 1001    | 45        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 24 /     | 31.1   | 71.2    | 1000    | 45        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 25 /     | 31.1   | 71.2    | 1000    | 40        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 25 /     | 31.0   | 70.5    | 1000    | 40        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 25 /     | 30.9   | 69.8    | 999     | 40        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 25 /     | 30.9   | 69.6    | 999     | 40        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 26 /     | 30.9   | 68.6    | 1000    | 35        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 26 /     | 31.2   | 68.2    | 1001    | 35        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 26 /     | 31.7   | 68.1    | 1002    | 35        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 26 /     | 32.2   | 68.3    | 1001    | 35        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 27 /     | 32.4   | 68.5    | 1000    | 40        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 27 /     | 32.8   | 68.8    | 1000    | 40        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 27 /     | 33.2   | 69.1    | 999     | 45        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 27 /     | 33.6   | 69.3    | 999     | 45        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 28 /     | 34.2   | 69.4    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 28 /     | 35.0   | 69.3    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 28 /     | 36.0   | 69.1    | 999     | 45        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 28 /     | 37.1   | 68.0    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 29 /     | 38.4   | 66.6    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 29 /     | 39.6   | 64.8    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 29 /     | 40.8   | 62.8    | 997     | 50        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 29 /     | 42.2   | 60.2    | 999     | 50        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 30 /     | 43.5   | 57.5    | 1001    | 50        | extratropical  |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 30 /     | 44.7   | 54.6    | 1003    | 45        | \"             |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 30 /     | 45.8   | 51.7    | 1005    | 40        | \"             |
| 1200     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 30 /     | 46.4   | 48.8    | 1006    | 40        | \"             |
| 1800     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 31 /     | 47.5   | 46.0    | 1006    | 40        | \"             |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 31 /     |        |         |         |           | absorbed       |
| 0600     |        |         |         |           |                |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+
| 28 /     | 34.2   | 69.4    | 997     | 50        | minimum        |
| 0000     |        |         |         |           | pressure       |
+----------+--------+---------+---------+-----------+----------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected ship and drifting buoy reports
with winds of at least 34 kt for Tropical Storm Franklin, 21-29 July
2005.

+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Date/Time | Ship call | Latitude  | Longitude | Wind      | Pressure  |
| (UTC)     | sign      |           |           |           |           |
|           |           | (N)      | (W)      | dir/speed | (mb)      |
|           |           |           |           | (kt)      |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 22 / 1800 | Buoy      | 27.6      | 76.0      | 190 / 43  | 1015.5    |
|           | 41528     |           |           |           |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 25 / 0900 | WCOB      | 29.2      | 69.4      | 200 / 37  | 1009.9    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 29 / 2100 | V7GY3     | 41.5      | 58.5      | 230 / 50  | 1010.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 0900 | WCZ654    | 44.5      | 52.9      | 190 / 35  | 1008.3    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1200 | PBHU      | 45.9      | 55.0      | 340 / 35  | 1011.3    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1200 | HP6038    | 46.4      | 48.4      | 180 / 36  | 1014.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1200 | VEP717    | 46.7      | 48.7      | 170 / 37  | 1013.3    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1500 | HP6038    | 46.4      | 48.4      | 170 / 35  | 1010.8    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1500 | VEP717    | 46.7      | 48.7      | 160 / 38  | 1010.1    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 30 / 1500 | YJUF7     | 46.7      | 48.0      | 170 / 36  | 1011.1    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERTable 3. Preliminary forecast
evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Tropical Storm Franklin, 21-29
July 2005. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of
forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast
(OFCL) are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression
stage but does not include the extratropical stage. Models not available
at the time OFCL forecasts were made are indicated by (\*).

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 53    | 117   | 186   | 241   | 331   | 430   | **444 |
|           | (31)  | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (21)  | (17)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 13)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 46    | 85    | 104   | 100   | 176   | **232 | **225 |
|           | (29)  | (26)  | (24)  | (19)  | (15)  | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | 13)** | 8)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 38    | 70    | 96    | 113   | 191   | 415   | 824   |
|           | (31)  | (28)  | (26)  | (23)  | (20)  | (15)  | (12)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDL\*    | **34  | **59  | 84    | 104   | 185   | 362   | 755   |
|           | (     | (     | (26)  | (23)  | (18)  | (14)  | (12)  |
|           | 31)** | 29)** |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDN\*    | 38    | 76    | 109   | 117   | **170 | **229 | **230 |
|           | (27)  | (25)  | (22)  | (18)  | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       | 14)** | 13)** | 9)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 47    | 99    | 159   | 230   | 472   | 915   | 1484  |
|           | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (22)  | (17)  | (12)  | ( 7)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSO\*    | 40    | 71    | 115   | 178   | 365   | 955 ( | 1510  |
|           | (28)  | (25)  | (22)  | (20)  | (15)  | 7)    | ( 5)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 48    | 99    | 153   | 219   | 400   | 638 ( |       |
|           | (29)  | (26)  | (25)  | (22)  | (16)  | 4)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 44    | 81    | 107   | 143   | 234   | 362   | 569   |
|           | (31)  | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (20)  | (17)  | (13)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPS\*    | 45    | 82    | 112   | 138   | 221   | 330   | 509   |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (17)  | (15)  | (12)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 49    | 82    | 93    | 139   | 177   | 304   | 519 ( |
|           | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (20)  | (16)  | (15)  | 8)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKM\*     | 41    | **64  | **78  | **73  | **128 | **241 | **437 |
|           | (15)  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       | 14)** | 13)** | 10)** | 8)**  | 8)**  | 4)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A98E      | 47    | 81    | 105   | 137   | 232   | 378   | **420 |
|           | (31)  | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (21)  | (17)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 13)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A9UK      | 56    | 95    | 128   | 163   | 275   |       |       |
|           | (15)  | (14)  | (13)  | (12)  | (10)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 42    | 85    | 135   | 197   | 383   | 644   | 822   |
|           | (31)  | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (21)  | (17)  | (13)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | **34  | **66  | 104   | 145   | 283   | 501   | 603   |
|           | (     | (     | (26)  | (24)  | (20)  | (16)  | (12)  |
|           | 30)** | 28)** |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | **36  | **65  | 92    | 111   | **171 | 312   | **440 |
|           | (     | (     | (26)  | (24)  | (     | (16)  | (     |
|           | 30)** | 28)** |       |       | 20)** |       | 12)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | **36  | 67    | 89    | 114   | 204   | 370   | 683   |
|           | (     | (28)  | (26)  | (24)  | (19)  | (16)  | (12)  |
|           | 31)** |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | **36  | 69    | 93    | 126   | 257   | 459   | 788 ( |
|           | (     | (26)  | (24)  | (19)  | (15)  | (12)  | 5)    |
|           | 28)** |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | **37  | 74    | 112   | 154   | 312   | 563   | 913 ( |
|           | (     | (27)  | (25)  | (23)  | (16)  | (11)  | 6)    |
|           | 29)** |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 38    | 67    | 80    | 95    | 175   | 288   | 451   |
|           | (31)  | (29)  | (27)  | (25)  | (21)  | (17)  | (13)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 42    | 75    | 107   | 138   | 202   | 236   | 310   |
| Official  |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | \(3   | \(3   | \(2   | \(2   | \(2   | \(    | \(    |
| (         | 400\) | 116\) | 848\) | 575\) | 117\) | 649\) | 535\) |
| 1995-2004 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)^1^  |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

^1^ Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the
four-year period 2001-04.

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Watch and warning summary for Tropical
Storm Franklin, 21-29 July 2005.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  Date/Time (UTC)         Action                  Location

  21 / 2100               Tropical Storm Warning  Northwestern Bahamas
                          issued                  excluding Andros and
                                                  Bimini

  22 / 0900               Tropical Storm Warning  New Providence and
                          discontinued            Berry Islands in the
                                                  Bahamas

  22 / 2100               Tropical Storm Warning  All
                          discontinued            

  26 / 0300               Tropical Storm Watch    Bermuda
                          issued                  

  27 / 0900               Tropical Storm Watch    All
                          discontinued            
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="8.0in" height="6.647222222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Tropical Storm
Franklin, 21-29 July 2005.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.25in" height="5.0472222222222225in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Franklin,
21-29 July 2005. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation
using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb,
850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include
actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the
mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL).

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.625in" height="5.309027777777778in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Franklin, 21-29
July 2005.

[^1]: Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the
    four-year period 2001-4.