**Number range CHAPTERState Age Sex Estimates -- An Overview**

[Number range CHAPTER]{.underline} [HISTORY]{.underline}

> **Started in 70s - Broad Age Groups (BAG)**
>
> Age groups 0-2, 3-4, 5-13, 14-24(SY), mostly 10-year groups up to 64,
> then 65+
>
> No sex detail, except age 64 *(probably for use in county estimates)*
>
> Method similar to current *(except school age migration RATE was used
> for each age group all the way from 0-64)*
>
> Medicare data used for 65+

# HISTORY

## CHANGES IN EARLY 80s

> About 1983 went to all Cohort Component computing single years of age
>
> Change in use of School enrollment data
>
> *From all rate to combination of rate and migration number(for 0-16)*
>
> Only released, published Age Groups *(0-4, 5-13, 14-17, 18-24, 25-34,
> ten yr groups to 85+)*
>
> Other aggregates available on request
>
> *\[Try to get single years from cleverly constructed overlapping
> aggregates\]*

# HISTORY

#### CHANGE TO CURRENT

> 1990 evaluation found evidence that on **average**
>
> Single years of age were no worse than aggregates.
>
> Produced Single Year file for general release.
>
> 1993 round - converted processing from large FORTRAN programs to SAS.
> Basic straight conversion with no methodological changes.

\[Programs were getting long, taking time on Sun System - Edwin admits
when he ran them in FORTRAN they \"Brought the System to its knees\".\]

# HISTORY

**POST 2000 CHANGES**

*\[See Matt, Larry\]*

# CURRENT METHOD

Description not in order of computation. Will see need for items as they
arise.

> **Computation in 3 parts, for civilian, by age** *(First computed for
> total, then split to male and female using a sex-ratio (by age, year),
> for parts 1 and 2.*
>
> 0-16 (No Military, Civilian=Resident)
>
> Cohort pop - cohort civilian deaths + single year mig
>
> 17-64 (Military in this age group)
>
> Cohort pop - Cohort Resident Armed Forces

\+ single year mig - cohort civilian deaths - net loss to mil.

> 65+ (No Military, Medicare Data used)

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

## Cohort Populations

> Uses Census Population, Births, depending on Age and Year
>
> .25\*Cen~A~ + .75\*Cen~A+1~
>
> .25\*Births + .75\*Cen

or

> .5\*Births~Y~ + .5\*Births~Y+1~

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

### **Cohort Military** 

> Inputs
>
> State Station strength, each year
>
> US military by age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin, each year, World Wide
> and Resident (Inside)
>
> US Controls (Deaths to Military, Deaths to Military Overseas)
>
> Results
>
> Cohort Military Population
>
> Cohort Military Deaths
>
> Net Loss

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

## Cohort Deaths

> Use Calendar year deaths to make period cohort deaths (single year of
> age to 64)

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

## Single Year Migration Computation

> Migration Base (cohort pop - cohort AF)

\- (Cohort Civilian Deaths + net loss to Mil)/2

> Migration migration base \* (school age migration rate(one rate
> applied to all ages) + migration differential)
>
> School Age(SA) Migration Rate
>
> SA Migration/SA Migration Base
>
> SA migration= (SA Pop (Adjusted for Enrollment Rate)-Survived School
> Age Cohort)

\*(time adjustment)

> Migration Differential
>
> From census data on residence 5 years ago. Differential for each age
> group from school age.
>
> [CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}
>
> **Medicare Estimates (65+)**
>
> Split Age Groups
>
> Medicare data comes in 2 year age groups for 65-74, 5-year age groups
> 75-84, and 85+
>
> Use 1990 census data to split to single years of age (by sex)
>
> Compute Estimate from Medicare Change
>
> POP~Y~ = POP~90~ + (Med~Y~-Med~90~)
>
> Control to US Totals

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

## Final Packaging

> Two-way rake (State Totals, National Age-Sex Totals - 51 by 172)
>
> Combine the 3 Age Groups
>
> Sprinkle and Stuff
>
> Make Resident from Civilian and Military

[CURRENT METHOD]{.underline}

#### Issues

> Issues for future consideration
>
> Micro Data Deaths
>
> Tally deaths by age and time of occurrence rather than splitting
> calendar year deaths into cohorts.
>
> Advantage - Uses \"Real\" data
>
> Disadvantage - Problems with data - coding age, time of death,
> completeness, etc.
>
> Migration modification, age 55-64
>
> While doing evaluation, we found that the worst ages were between 55
> and 64, with the degree of error increasing the closer we got to 65.
>
> Probably a product of using School Age Migration, when maybe this age
> group migrated more like the 65+ group, and thus Medicare migration
> would be more appropriate. Are considering a weighted scheme using
> more SA migration closer to 55 and more Medicare migration closer to
> 65.
>
> 3\. All New Methods

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