Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/31/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** TH4095

TH4095

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Weekly Rice Price Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Rodrick McSherry, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy, Bangkok

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist/Russ Nicely, Agricultural
Attache

**Report Highlights:**

Export prices increased slightly in response to the upward revision of
the Government\'s intervention prices.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

**Indicative Prices (Week Ending Aug. 30):**

  ------------ -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------
  Thailand:                                                                      
  Export (FOB)                                                                   
  Prices for                                                                     
  various                                                                        
  grades of                                                                      
  rice                                                                           
  (USD/M.T.)                                                                     

               Exporter                                                 Period   
               Observations                                             Avg.     

               #1             #2     #3     #4     #5     #6     #7     CUR.     PRV.

  F WR 100 B   392            370    446    423    415    380    390    402      404

  WR 100 B     244            245    248    244    242    245    240    244      243

  PB 5%        256            250    252    265    265    267    240    256      253

  WR 5%        239            240    242    240    240    240    236    240      238

  WR 10%       237            235    237    237    238    238    232    236      235

  WR 15%       235            232    232    234    237    236    228    233      232

  WR 25%       230            229    231    230    230    228    224    229      228

  WR 35%       226            227    230    225    226    226    220    226      225

  A 1 SUP      214            212    221    210    212    213    207    213      212

  A 1 SPEC     213            211    220    208    210    \-     206    211      211

                                                                                 

  Source:                                                                        
  Average                                                                        
  actual                                                                         
  prices                                                                         
  received                                                                       
  from                                                                           
  exporters                                                                      
  ------------ -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------

**Market Tone**

Despite the seasonal slowdown in new order demand, export prices
increased slightly in response to strengthening domestic prices,
following the government's upward revision of the intervention price for
the upcoming major crop's mortgage scheme (Nov. 1, 2004 -- Feb 28, 2005)
by another 300-700 Baht/ton (roughly U.S.\$ 7-17/ton) on top of its
recent announcement which was set at around 1,000 baht/ton (roughly
U.S.\$ 25/ton) higher than the previous year's intervention prices. As a
result, 100% grade white rice paddy prices will be 6,600 -- 7,000
baht/ton (roughly U.S.\$ 159-169/ton), as compared to 5,330 baht/ton
(roughly U.S.\$ 128/ton) in the previous year. Also, domestic demand for
white rice paddy remained strong, as parboiled rice exporters continued
to secure supply to cover the pending shipments to African countries,
leading to a surge in current parboiled rice export prices.

As for the start of rice future trade on the Agricultural Futures
Exchange of Thailand last week (Aug. 26), trade sources expected thin
trade volume as long as the price risk is explicitly hedged through the
government's intervention prices. Also, the anticipated marginal price
fluctuation does not seem to attract speculators, who are believed to be
a key of the future market success.

The following are reported rice exports (as is basis)**:**

  ------------ -------------- -------------- ------------- ---------------
  WEEK ENDING  QUANTITY       4-WK AVG       YEAR TO DATE  YEAR AGO

               (MT)           (MT)           (TMT)         (TMT)

  JUL 11       161,618        183,459        3,836         2,287

  JUL 18       178,271        182,648        4,014         2,413

  JUL 25       197,424        187,060        4,212         2,524

  AUG 1        188,845        181,539        4,400         2,658

  AUG 8        146,493        177,758        4,547         2,799

  AUG 15       125,322        164,521        4,672         2,912

  AUG 22       126,229        146,722        4,798         3,052

  AUG 29       159,721        139,441        4,958         3,180
  ------------ -------------- -------------- ------------- ---------------

Note on data: Export figures since March 22, 2002, do not include
fragrant rice. The authority to report fragrant rice exports was moved
from the Thai Board of Trade to the Ministry of Commerce's Office of
Commodity Standards, which does not release official fragrant rice
export data. FAS/BKK will report only official export numbers from the
Board of Trade for non-fragrant and from the Office of Commodity
Standards for fragrant rice when available, but the reader should bear
in mind the difference between the data.

Unofficial exports (excluding fragrant rice) for Aug. 23-29, 2004
totaled 159,721 tons, up 33,491 tons from the previous week's total and
up 20,279 tons from the four-week moving average of 139,441 tons.
Exports during Jan. 1 -- Aug. 29, 2004 totaled 4,958,121 tons, compared
with 3,179,660 tons during the same period in 2003.

According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce,
total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during Jan. 1- Aug. 16,
2004, amounted to 5,975,107 tons, up 40 percent from 4,276,051 tons in
the previous year.

**Weekly Rice Sales**

Private registered rice export sales for the period of Aug. 9-13, Aug.
16-20, and\
Aug. 23 -27, 2004 are as follows:

  -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  Movement (MT)        Aug. 9-13        Aug. 16-20       Aug. 23-27

                                                         

  weekly sales         96,714           126,588          158,002

  4 week sum           499,558          422,199          407,149

  4 week mov. avg.     124,890          105,550          101,787

  Total weekly sales   5,339,047        5,465,635        5,623,637
  -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------

End of Report.