Type: INT 97-33 **NSF/Tokyo Report:** Seismo-Electromagnetic Research in
The Earthquake Remote Sensing Frontier Research Project, EORC/NASDA:

Org: INT

Date: 9/19/97

Replaces: None

The National Science Foundation\'s offices in Tokyo and in Paris
periodically report on developments abroad that are related to the
Foundation\'s mission. These documents present facts for the use of NSF
program managers and policy makers; they are not statements of NSF
policy.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Special Scientific Report #97-25 (September 2, 1997)

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Mr. Reginald R. Muskett, a graduate student in the Department of Geology
at the University of Akron, Akron, OH, prepared the following report.
Mr. Muskett was a participant in the 1997 Summer Institute sponsored by
NSF and the Science and Technology Agency (STA) of the Japanese
government. Dr. T. Kodama and Dr. M. Hayakawa of the Earthquake Remote
Sensing Research Group at the Earth Observations Research Center of the
National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) were his hosts. Mr.
Muskett can be reached via email at: studioufo@mindspring.com.

Seismo-electromagnetic Research in

The Earthquake Remote Sensing

Frontier Research Project, EORC/NASDA:

An Overview.

By

Reginald R. Muskett

\"Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted,\" Geller et al., 1997.

A look at the seismological map of the Earth reveals that the epicenters
of earthquakes are primarily long arcing strips - the seismological
belts that encircle the planet. These seismological belts mark the Plate
Tectonic boundaries of convergence, divergence and transformation that
define the lithosphere plates of the Earth. Most of the active
seismological belts lie close to or are underneath densely populated
areas of human habitation. The metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, San
Francisco, Santiago, and Rome are in danger of destruction by
earthquakes. Statistics compiled by insurance companies such as Lloyds
of London, rate earthquakes first among natural disasters in terms of
severity of damage and loss of life. Thus since the inception of
seismology, there has been a great urgency to seek reliable precursor
phenomena of earthquakes and their generative processes (Gokhberg et
al., 1995).

Current research suggests that the seismic process is preceded by a
complex set of physical phenomena, or precursors (Gokhberg et al.,
1995). For the most part, seismic activity is monitored in the United
States and elsewhere by arrays of seismometers which allow for the
determination of the epicenter, hypocenter, and rupture parameters
(magnitude, seismic moment, source mechanism, orientation of the fault
plane and direction of motion) of an earthquake. These parameters, the
mechanical properties of which have been studied for decades, are well
known. However, seismic activity induces other variations of geophysical
parameters such as the surrounding electric and magnetic fields. Under
favorable conditions these electromagnetic variations may be observed
before seismic rupture (Parrot et al., 1993). A recent workshop on
earthquake precursors held at the University of Electro-Communications,
Tokyo (sponsored by the National Space Development Agency of Japan),
illustrated a wide range of seismo-electromagnetic

precursor radiation (NASDA-CON-960003). In general, these
electromagnetic precursors fall into four main time scale categories
needed for prediction: long term (years), medium term (months), short
term (days), and operative (minutes to hours). Of these, the short term
and operative scale precursors are the most important because they are
supposed to specify the moment in time of the earthquake event. From the
point of view of geophysics, the ability of the Earth\'s crust in areas
of active deformation to transform mechanical energy into
electromagnetic waves is a possible contribution to the short-term
prediction of

seismic hazards (Gokhberg et al., 1995).

Establishing a relationship between the anomalous electromagnetic
emission parameters (or lack of) and the earthquake parameters is one
goal of current research. Analysis of anomalous electromagnetic emission
structure and the disturbance in the stress state has revealed a
correlation between the electromagnetic effects and the mechanical
processes occurring in the Earth\'s crust (Gokhberg et al., 1995).

Molchanov and Hayakawa (1995) discussed the mechanism of electromagnetic
emission by microfracturing as a possible source of the ULF (frequency
range from 0.01 to 10 Hz) wave observations associated in time with the
Loma Prieta (1989) and Spitak (1988) earthquakes.

The most important and difficult problem in seismo-electromagnetic
research is the location of source. This problem is related to both the
physical processes in the earthquake preparation zone and the choice of
monitoring device. With regard to the location of the source of
anomalous electromagnetic emission there are two interpretations.
Firstly there is the mechano-electric conversion at the earthquake focus

(located at depth in the Earth\'s crust) and the epicentral region at
the surface. This process involves the concept of an active emitter. The
largest strains occur in the regions of maximum intensity and the
accompanying physical and chemical process are expected to cause intense
electromagnetic emission.

Secondly, there are pulsed electromagnetic emission anomalies resulting
from changes in the conditions for electromagnetic wave propagation in
the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. The change in wave propagation
conditions caused by the level of ionization above the epicentral region
varies during the period of earthquake preparation. This causes
electromagnetic interference above the epicentral region so that
emissions sources can be located in the near surface atmosphere, upper
atmosphere, and ionosphere. This process involves the concept of a
passive emitter (Gokhberg et al., 1995). Hayakawa et al. (1993) proposed
using the polarization, impedance, and coherence properties of multiple
electromagnetic waves to determine the source of precursory emissions of
earthquake processes. Recently, Afonin et al. (1997), using the data
base of plasma density recordings from the Russian satellite
Intercosmos-24, 25 and Cosmos-900, discovered a good correlation between
the global distribution of seismic activity and ionospheric plasma
density variations.

On going research within the Seismoelectromagnetics research group of
the Earth Observation Research Center/NASDA is focusing on the ULF
observations and the types of mission instruments necessary for
satellite observation.

References:

Afonin, V.V., Molchanov O.V., Kodama, T., Hayakawa, M., and Akentieva,
O.A, 1997, Ionospheric plasma response to long seismic influence: search
for reliable result from satellite observations, \[draft\] referred to
in Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismic-Electromagnetics \'97.
NASDA Conference

Publication, NASDA-CON-960003, p. 60.

Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., and Mulargia, F., 1997,
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, vol. 275, p. 1616-1617.

Gokhberg, M., B., Morgounov, V., A., and Pokhotelov, O., A., 1995,
Earthquake Prediction: Seismo-Electromagnetic Phenomena. Gordon and
Breach Publishers, Russia.

Molchanov, O. A., Kopytenko, Yu. A., Voronov, P. M., Kopytenko, E. A.,
Matiashvili, T. G., Fraser-Smith, A. C., and Bernardi, A., 1992, Results
of ULF magnetic field measurements near the epicenters of the Spitak (Ms
= 6.9) and Loma Prieta (Ms = 7.1) earthquakes: Comparative analysis.
Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 14, p. 1495-1498.

Molchanov, O. A., and Hayakawa, M., 1995, Generation of ULF
electromagnetic emissions by microfracturing. Geophysical Research
Letters, vol. 22, no. 22, p. 3091-3094.

NASDA-CON-960003, 1997, Abstracts of International Workshop on
Seismo-Electromagnetics \'97.

Parrot, M., Achache, J., Berthelier, J. J., Blanc, E., Deschamps, A.,
Lefeuvre, F., Menvielle, M., Plantet, J.L., Tarits, P., and Villian, J.
P., 1993, High-frequency seismo-electromagnetic effects. Physics of the
Earth and Planetary Interiors, vol. 77, p. 65-83.

\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

Reggie Muskett thanks the governments of Japan and the United States of
America, specifically the Earthquake Remote Sensing Research Group, the
Earth Observations Research Center, the National Space Development
Agency of Japan, and the National Science Foundation (Tokyo and
Washington D.C. Offices), as well as the Department of Geology of The
University of Akron, Ohio for support throughout the Summer Institute
Japan Program 1997.

\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--

Send comments and questions by e-mail to Reggie Muskett at:
studioufo@mindspring.com

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_