**International Year of Planet Earth**

**Launch Event\
12-13 February 2008\
UNESCO, Paris\
\
Theme 2\
*Earth resources: Threat or Treat?***

***Science, Society, and the Future of Earth's Resources\
*Mark Myers, Director, U.S. Geological Survey**

*­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­*

Event protocols, greetings. Calnan to advise on scene.

*\>\> Title slide*

Good morning. I'm honored and very pleased to speak to you today.

From the dawn of time, humans have regarded earth's resources as a
boundless treat that, if exhausted in one area, could be found again
elsewhere.

The threat to earth's resources today - from climate change and from the
demands of a rapidly growing global population - has no historical
parallel.

*\>\> Slide 2 Humans become Agents of environmental change*

. The impact of humans on the planet has expanded to the extent that we
live in what could be called the "Anthropocene" -- a new geologic epoch
in which humankind has emerged as a globally important force capable of
reshaping the earth, capable of depleting or threatening many of the
earth's resources.

*\>\> Slide 3 Night light produced largely from fossil fuels*

. We are now in a situation of relatively rapid climate change in which
we know with certainty that we will be crossing thresholds beyond which
ecosystems, and the services they provide, will be irreversibly changed.
Climate change will directly and indirectly threaten the stability of
natural resources and human well-being.

*\>\> Slide 4 So far in the Antropocene...*

. If we do not focus on sustainable management of our earth's resources,
the resource treats that we have enjoyed in the past undoubtedly will
become a more and more of a threat for people in many nations.

. To better understand the threat posed to earth resources by climate
change and a rapidly growing global population, let's begin by looking
at three familiar categories of resources -- energy and minerals; water;
and biological resources.

Anthropocene concept: Paul Crutzen, in Nature, Jan. 02. *Geology of
mankind.*

http://geology.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=geology&cdn=education&tm=14&gps=346_410_1916_1001&f=10&tt=2&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//courses.eas.ualberta.ca/eas457/Anthropocene.pdf

+++++++++

Drawing from the works of hundreds of researchers, the "Global Change"

study (Steffen et al. 2004; Chapter 3) concluded that perhaps 50% of the
world's

ice-free land surface has been transformed by human action; the land
under

cropping has doubled during the past century at the expense of forests,
which

declined by 20% over the same period. More than half of all accessible
freshwater

resources have come to be used by humankind. Fisheries remove more than

25% of the primary production of the oceans in the upwelling regions and
35%

in the temperate continental shelf regions (Pauly and Christensen 1995).

Steffen,W. et al., eds. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System.
Heidelberg: Springer.

+++++++

***Humans as geologic agents: A deep-time perspective***

Bruce H. Wilkinson

Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor,
Michigan 48109, USA

ABSTRACT

Humans move increasingly large amounts of rock and sediment during
various construction

activities, and mean rates of cropland soil loss may exceed rates of
formation by

up to an order of magnitude, but appreciating the actual importance of
humans as agents

of global erosion necessitates knowledge of prehistoric denudation rates
imposed on land

surfaces solely by natural processes.

*Geology;* March 2005; v. 33; no. 3; p. 161--164; doi: 10.1130/G21108.1

*\>\> Slide 5 Energy and Mineral Resources*

. Modern society is increasingly dependent on non-renewable mineral and
fossil energy resources.

. Economic and population growth of less developed countries functions
as a relatively recent but quickly growing push factor on global demand.

. Still, no global shortages of non-fuel mineral resources expected in
near future.

. Despite predictions during last 40 years that at some future time the
world will run out of oil, such dire observations may be irrelevant as
the production of fossil fuels from unconventional sources - such as
natural gas hydrates, tar sands, coal bed methane -- become economically
viable.

. Responsible extraction of any of the earth's natural resources -- from
coal to gold to gas hydrates -- requires a rigorous commitment to
sustainable development from economic, environmental, and socio-cultural
perspectives.

. As the USGS Director, I'm proud to point out that our organization
continues to conduct two of the world's most respected sources of
authoritative, unbiased about minerals and energy resources:

\+ USGS Global Mineral Resource Project

\+ USGS World Petroleum Assessment

*\>\> Slide 6 Water Quality and Availability*

. The combination of climate change, population growth, and greater use
of irrigated agriculture has resulted in increased stress on water
resources around the world. Water has emerged as a global issue that
requires international multi-disciplinary cooperation on assessment,
research, and management. The problem is exacerbated with the expansion
of population centers in water-scarce regions, such as in central
Mexico, southern India, and southeast Australia.

. In order to avoid situations where water becomes an increased threat
rather than remaining a treat, an interdisciplinary and transboundary
focus is required.

. The UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP) focuses
activities on water research, water resources management, education, and
capacity-building with a recent shift to improving the management of
water within the context of environmental sustainability. The U.S.
government and the USGS strongly support these UNESCO initiatives.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

The US strongly supports the IHP VII themes of Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change on River Basins and Aquifer Systems; Strengthening
Water Governance for Sustainability; Ecohydrology for Environmental
Sustainability; Water in Support of Live Systems; and Water Education
for Sustainable Development. On June 1, 2006, the Department of State
submitted to Congress its initial report on water issues in developing
countries under the Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act 2005, marking the
beginning of a long-term process to develop and implement a strategy to
strengthen U.S. efforts on international water issues. This Act, signed
into law by President Bush on December 1, 2005, makes access to safe
water and sanitation for developing countries a specific policy
objective of U.S. foreign assistance programs. The US also recently has
taken the initiative to propose the creation of at least one US based
UNESCO Category II Center.

The responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey is to support U.S.
foreign policy through the implementation of its national and
international programs. Current US program priorities focus on advocacy,
research, and capacity-building based on the thematic areas of safe
drinking water, global climate change, and water hazards. In order to
aid in the implementation of US foreign policy the USGS provides
technical assistance and promotes scientific and technical exchange
globally focusing on aspects of resource assessments, droughts, floods,
land use change, climate change, desertification taking a
multi-disciplinary approach and encourages sustainable management of the
earth's resources. The USGS also has taken the initiative to lead the US
National Committee of the International Hydrologic Program and is
participating in other UN programs such as ISARM, IFI, and GRAPHIC and
UNESCO Category II Centers.

*\>\> Slide 7 Biological Resources*

. Climate change coupled with global population growth present
unprecedented threats to the world's biological resources. Here are a
few examples.

. Increased Desertification. Overgrazing by herd animals, wild and
domestic, coupled with the overuse of soil for crops results in the
removal of soil nutrients which can damage to soil surface structure.

. Increased Floods. Floods resulting from changed rainfall patterns will
impact fisheries and aquatic systems, their productivity and diversity.

. Increased Storm Intensity. An increased trend in sea-surface
temperature during the 20th century has been more pronounced in the past
35 years. Increased sea-surface temperatures have implications for
producing hurricanes with greater intensity and increased coastal
vulnerability in the future.

. Loss of Biodiversity. Changes in climate influence the size of plant
and animal populations, which in turn affects the distribution and
abundance of species, and ultimately ecosystem structure and function.

. Loss of Reef Building Corals. The destruction of coral reef ecosystems
would expose coastal populations to flooding, coastal erosion, and the
loss of food and income from reef-based fisheries and tourism.

Biological soil crusts play an important role in desert ecosystem
stability, including their influence on soil fertility and stability.
Effects of overgrazing and climate change (increased temperatures,
altered precipitation regimes) on the structure and function of these
soil crusts reduce their ability to anchor the soil and provide
nutrients.

Many ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the projected rate and
magnitude of climate change. Furthermore, many attributes of individual
animal species, their size, shape and color, and their feeding and
reproductive behaviors, are adapted to the climatic conditions in which
they live.

Coral reefs are fundamental to the healthy ecosystems that support
important biodiversity and fisheries. Yet seventeen authors of a recent
publication in *Science* conclude that the corals could begin to
disappear in 50 to 75 years due to steadily warming temperatures and
increasing ocean acidification caused by carbon dioxide emissions.

*\>\> Slide 8 Understanding Earth Systems*

. \[Optional segue. Speaker's discretion\] At this point you may be
thinking ahead to what further categories of threatened earth resources
I might present before I come to a welcome conclusion. We're not quite
there yet.

. "Ecosystem" is the term for an integrated system of organisms
interacting with their physical environment. Resilient, functioning
ecosystems ....

\+ build fertile soil

\+ enhance pollination of crops

\+ purify water

\+ regulate the atmosphere

\+ detoxify waste

. These types of earth resources are not so easily categorized into
conventional categories or analyzed by traditional science disciplines.

. The essential point that I want to make today, a perspective that I
support very strongly, is that all of earth's resources are
interrelated.

. In this first decade of the 21st Century, we face many threats to
earth resources that have sustained us in the past: threats on a global
scale such as climate change, drought, natural disasters, deforestation,
competition for energy and mineral resources. Additionally, there are
important human health impacts that are tied to the quality of our air
and our water.

. These problems cannot be solved by individuals -- or groups of
nations. We are all at risk. And we must act together to mitigate and
adapt to that risk.

. At USGS, we've developed a science strategy that we believe will help
our organization -- and our country -- address complex environmental
problems.

. Our strategy is based on a systems approach to evaluate broad causes
and consequences of the use and management of natural resources and
earth processes.

*\>\> Slide 9 \[GEO diagram\]*

. In this slide supplied by GEO (Group on Earth Observation), we see a
rough illustration that hints at the complexity and the interrelated
quality of Earth's natural systems coupled with interactions of human
activity.

*\>\> Slide 10 USGS Science Strategy Directions*

. There are six interrelated thematic components - directions -- in our
science strategy that you see listed in this slide.

. The interaction, correlation, and interplay of these directions both
reflect and reveal the complexity of the Earth's natural, physical, and
life systems.

. They describe the breadth of our systems approach that calls upon the
full range of USGS science capabilities.

. This comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach pays dividends in
making our science more relevant to environmental issues in public
policy.

. Because climate affects all life on earth, the expanded USGS climate
studies are closely linked to ecosystem, health, water, hazards, and
energy issues.

. The USGS energy and minerals strategy will be enhanced and broadened
to deal not only with resource availability, but also with a broad
spectrum of related land, water, and environmental concerns.

*\>\> Slide 11 Ecosystem Structure*

. At USGS we believe that the starting point to understanding the
complexity of earth systems is the concept of ecosystems.

. Ecosystems constitute the Earth's biosphere and support human
existence. The plants, animals, microbes, and physical products from
ecosystems provide people, as components of those ecosystems, with the
energy, water, biomass, medicine, and mineral resources needed to
sustain human societies.

*\>\> Slide 12 Ecosystem Mapping*

. Understanding ecosystems and predicting ecosystem change requires
robust scientific assessments and modeling of ecosystem conditions as
climate and human-induced land changes occur.

. Ecosystems are inherently "interdisciplinary," with geographical,
biological, geological, hydrological, and other components.

. Ecosystems are also inherently "multiscalar," spatially and
temporally. They are usually recognized and managed at site-specific
(local) scales, but are also described at broader scales from regional
to global.

. USGS scientists are mapping ecosystems by integrating their
"structural" components, e.g. landforms, climate, geology, land cover,
etc.

*\>\> Slide 13 Ecosystem Analysis*

. Geographically standardized ecosystem inventories -- as maps or
databases -- enable scientists to pursue:

\+ conservation planning (through GAP analysis)

\+ resource management

\+ predictive forecasting of ecosystem conditions.

*\>\> Slide 14 Integrated Science in the Everglades*

. As a case study of our systems approach, the interdisciplinary work of
USGS scientists provides sound scientific data to facilitate efforts to
restore the Everglades to its original functions.

. The Everglades ecosystems have been designated by the United Nations
as a World Heritage Site and an International Biosphere Reserve.

. The habitat in south Florida originally supported far-ranging animals,
like the Florida panther, and super-colonies of wading birds, such as
herons, egrets, roseate spoonbills, ibis, and wood storks.

*\>\> Slide 14b Integrated Science in the Everglades*

. Human alterations to the Everglades ecosystem during the 20^th^
century -

\+ exponential population growth

\+ drainage changes

\+ agricultural practices

\+ urbanization

have resulted in severe ecosystem degradation as evidenced by -

\+ 90% decline in wading bird populations

\+ declines in commercial, recreational fisheries

\+ widespread invasions of exotic plants and animals

> (e.g. melaleuca tree, water hyacinth, walking catfish,
>
> Burmese python)

. The USGS has many ongoing research projects that are expanding
scientific knowledge of unique Everglades ecosystems.

*\>\> Slide 15 USGS International Science - examples*

. The USGS plays a key role in many international efforts to develop a
global understanding of earth systems.

Global Seismic Network

International Polar Year

International Council for Science

UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP)

Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS)

> A Satellite Image Atlas of Endangered World Heritage Sites
>
> (UNESCO)

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET, U.S.)

\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

> **+ GEOSS --Global Earth Observation System of Systems**
>
> The purpose of this effort is to achieve comprehensive, coordinated
> and sustained observations of the Earth system, in order to improve
> monitoring of the state of the Earth, increase understanding of Earth
> processes, and enhance prediction of the behavior of the Earth system.
> While in situ measurements will remain essential to measure what
> cannot be measured from satellites, Earth-observation satellites are
> the only realistic means to obtain the necessary global coverage, and
> with well-calibrated measurements will become the single most
> important contribution to global observations for climate.
>
> This effort dovetails very well with our emphasis on a systems
> approach to natural science. We are proud to be a key supporter of GEO
> (Group on Earth Observations) and GEOSS.
>
> \+ **A Satellite Image Atlas of Endangered World Heritage Sites**
>
> The U.S. Geological Survey and UNESCO are collaborating to produce an
> atlas that demonstrates the utility of remotely-sensed imagery for
> detecting changes and threats to endangered World Heritage Sites. The
> Atlas will be produced in both hard copy and online pdf formats, and
> will contain pictures, descriptions, and imagery for approximately
> forty World Heritage sites, most of which have been classified as
> endangered.
>
> **+ FEWS NET** **\[ NEXT SLIDE - AS TIME ALLOWS\]**
>
> The USGS supports the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET).
> The objective of this U.S. government program is to improve food
> security in 22 drought-prone African countries.
>
> *\>\> Slide 16 FEWS NET* \[AS TIME ALLOWS\]
>
> . The USGS supports the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS
> NET). The objective of this U.S. government program is to improve food
> security in 22 drought-prone African countries. The animated series of
> NDVI images shows seasonal development of vegetation across the
> continent for one year. An advantage of remotely sensed data is its
> ability to frequently monitor large areas; however, it is crucial that
> these data are coupled with field observations and other ground-based
> measurements to address localized food security issues.
>
> FEWS NET
>
> Beginning July of 2000, previous FEWS operations became known as the
> Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). While the objective of
> working to improve food security in 22 drought-prone African countries
> remains the primary focus, program objectives were extended to help
> establish more effective, sustainable, and African-led food security
> and response planning networks that reduce the vulnerability of
> at-risk groups, including risk from both famine and flood situations.
> FEWS NET is a U.S. Government funded partnership that provides
> continuity and builds upon the work of the FEWS program.
>
> The U.S. Geological Survey EROS Center (USGS- EROS) in cooperation
> with USAID, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, (NASA),
> the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), and
> Chemonics International Incorporated work to provide the data,
> information, and analyses needed to support the FEWS NET activity.
> NASA and NOAA are responsible for the collection and processing of
> satellite data that provide the spatial coverage and temporal
> frequency necessary for monitoring both vegetation condition and
> rainfall occurrence throughout the entire African continent.
>
> *\>\> Slide 16b UNESCO International Hydrological Programme*
>
> . U.S. Water Resources Conference in support of UNESCO's IHP
>
> • A one-day workshop led by NSF and USGS in support of UNESCO's IHP in
> Washington, DC on June 27, 2008 -- to be held at the Department of
> State
>
> • Purpose: to explore how to accelerate application of U.S. technology
> and knowledge to solve water resources and water quality management
> problems in developing countries.
>
> • Participants: High level representatives from U.S. agencies with
> interests and responsibilities for water, Director General of UNESCO,
> Ambassador Louise Oliver, leading U.S. scientists; 30 to 50 people.
>
> • Expected Outcomes:
>
> 1\. Recommendations for greater infusion of US science and technology
> into addressing water issues in developing countries.
>
> 2\. Direct input into an upcoming international conference involving
> several hundred people that will be sponsored by the US Committee on
> Hydrology (with UNESCO) on "Water Scarcity, Global Change, and
> Groundwater Management Responses" and to be held December 1-8, 2008 in
> Irvine, CA
>
> • Two major topics for the June meeting:
>
> 1\. Integrated water resource management in semi-arid and arid regions
>
> 2\. Meeting needs for potable water and sanitation in the rapidly
> expanding urban environments of developing countries.
>
> • Dr. Mark Myers, USGS, will announce this conference during the
> roll-out of the International Year of the Planet Earth in Paris on
> February 11th.

*\>\> Slide 17 Living for the Future*

. Today I've explained how the USGS has developed what we believe is a
versatile, powerful approach - a science strategy based on systems
analysis - to grasp the environmental issue of our time, global climate
change and its implications for earth systems.

. As I mentioned earlier, these problems cannot be solved by individuals
-- or groups of nations. We are all at risk. And we must act together to
mitigate and adapt to that risk.

. We need a better knowledge base -- a comprehensive scientific,
engineering, economic framework - from which we can build social and
economic policies that lead to greater energy and resource
sustainability at national and international levels.

. With its broad global partnerships and clearly stated goals for
societal benefits, GEOSS, in particular, is an excellent example of a
collaborative mechanism with which to build a widely accessible
international knowledge base. However, we must do much more on many
scientific fronts.

. Inevitably world leaders will be obliged to make decisions in the next
few years -- whether in boldness or in inaction -- that will influence
the future health of our planet. These world leaders - who speak for all
of us - must have a more confident understanding of the science of the
natural world if we, as societies, are to act wisely and implement sound
policies that promote sustainable development and prosperity for our
people.