**Arizona Geological Society**

**Tucson, AZ\
June 3, 2008**

***Facing Tomorrow\'s Challenges - in Minerals***

**Mark Myers**

**Director, U.S. Geological Survey**

**Title Slide**: *\>\> Title slide \[banks of the Colorado River,
location unknown\]*

. Good evening. I'm honored and very pleased to speak to you this
evening. My thanks to the Society and its program chair, Bob Kamilli,
for inviting me.

\[Also recognize Lee Allison, AZ State Geologist.\]

. My presentation has two parts. I'll discuss the new USGS Science
Strategy first and then speak more specifically, more locally about
minerals in Arizona. Just how closely these topics can be related is my
challenge tonight. It will be a measure of my success this evening to
have you agree that they are, indeed, well connected.

. To see why a clear, vigorous, and versatile science strategy for the
next ten years is so important to our 129 year-old organization, let's
begin with some observations about the human effect on the global
environment.

**Slide 2**:

. As geologists, you are aware that impact of humans on the planet has
expanded to the extent that humankind has emerged as a globally
important force capable of reshaping the earth, capable of depleting or
threatening many of the earth's resources.

. We are now in a situation of relatively rapid climate change in which
we know with certainty that we will be crossing thresholds beyond which
ecosystems, and the services they provide, will be irreversibly changed

**Slide 3**:

*Image: A composite picture of the planet at night. Most of the
electrical light that is produced come from coal fired generation
plants.*

. Climate change will directly and indirectly threaten the stability of
natural resources and human well-being.

**Slide 4**:

. If we do not focus on sustainable management of our earth's resources,
the lack of the resources that we have enjoyed in the past undoubtedly
will become a more and more of a threat for people in many nations.

=================

Drawing from the works of hundreds of researchers, the "Global Change"
study (Steffen et al. 2004; Chapter 3) concluded that perhaps 50% of the
world's

ice-free land surface has been transformed by human action; the land
under cropping has doubled during the past century at the expense of
forests, which

declined by 20% over the same period. More than half of all accessible
freshwater resources have come to be used by humankind. Fisheries remove
more than

25% of the primary production of the oceans in the upwelling regions and
35% in the temperate continental shelf regions (Pauly and Christensen
1995).

Steffen,W. et al., eds. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System.
Heidelberg: Springer.

+++++++

***Humans as geologic agents: A deep-time perspective***

Bruce H. Wilkinson; Department of Geological Sciences, University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA

ABSTRACT

Humans move increasingly large amounts of rock and sediment during
various construction activities, and mean rates of cropland soil loss
may exceed rates of formation by

up to an order of magnitude, but appreciating the actual importance of
humans as agents of global erosion necessitates knowledge of prehistoric
denudation rates imposed on land

surfaces solely by natural processes.

*Geology;* March 2005; v. 33; no. 3; p. 161--164; doi: 10.1130/G21108.1

**Slide 5**:

. Modern society is increasingly dependent on non-renewable mineral and
fossil energy resources.

. Economic and population growth of less developed countries functions
as a relatively recent but quickly growing push factor on global demand.

. Responsible extraction of any of the earth's natural resources -- from
coal to gold to gas hydrates -- requires a rigorous commitment to
sustainable development from economic, environmental, and socio-cultural
perspectives.

. Climate change coupled with global population growth present
unprecedented threats -- for example, increased desertification and loss
of biodiversity - to the world's biological resources.

. These challenges are not just vaguely global; they are immediate and
local. They appear at every level of natural resource management -- from
international to county and municipal levels.

**Slide 6**:

. The combination of climate change, population growth, and greater use
of irrigated agriculture has resulted in increased stress on water
resources around the world. Water has emerged as a global issue that
requires international multi-disciplinary cooperation on assessment,
research, and management. The problem is exacerbated with the expansion
of population centers in water-scarce regions, such as in central
Mexico, southern India, and southeast Australia.

. Water issues are familiar in the western states, especially here in
Arizona, but widespread water shortages that are magnified by urban
growth have recently begun to appear in the southeastern U.S.

. At first glance, the boy in this picture might appear to be from
Africa, judging from the look of his necklace. But he could just as well
live in our own state of Georgia. Or he could stand in for other
children who live in the Southwest. The challenges that climate and
population growth present for our natural resource know no boundaries.

**Slide 7**:

. At USGS, we've recently developed a science strategy that we believe
will help our organization address complex environmental problems.

. The strategy is based on a systems approach to evaluate broad causes
and consequences of the use and management of natural resources and
earth processes.

. There are six interrelated thematic components - directions -- in our
science strategy that you see listed in this slide. The interaction and
correlation of these science directions both reflect and reveal the
complexity of the Earth's natural, physical, and life systems. They
describe the breadth of our systems approach that calls upon the full
range of USGS science capabilities.

. The seventh component, data integration, is the passport to
transcending a discipline-based approach to science. It brings the other
science directions together in the most basic and, at the same time, the
most productive ways.

. We'll return to the seventh component, data integration, and to the
second component, energy and minerals, in a few minutes.

**Slide 8**:

. The essential point that I want to make today, a perspective that I
support very strongly, is that all of earth's resources are
interrelated.

. In this first decade of the 21st Century, we face many threats to
earth resources - threats on a global scale such as climate change,
drought, natural disasters, deforestation, competition for energy and
mineral resources. Additionally, there are important human health
impacts that are tied to the quality of our air and our water.

. We believe that this comprehensive, interdisciplinary, systems
approach to a science strategy will pay dividends in making our science
more relevant to environmental issues in public policy.

**Slide 9**:

. At USGS we believe that the starting point to understanding the
complexity of earth systems is the concept of ecosystems.

. Ecosystems constitute the Earth's biosphere and support human
existence. The plants, animals, microbes, and physical products from
ecosystems provide people, as components of those ecosystems, with the
energy, water, biomass, medicine, and mineral resources needed to
sustain human societies.

**Slide 10**:

. Ecosystems are inherently "interdisciplinary," with geographical,
biological, geological, hydrological, and other components.

. Ecosystems are also inherently "multiscalar," spatially and
temporally.

. Geographically standardized ecosystem inventories -- as maps or
databases -- enable scientists to pursue:

\+ conservation planning (through GAP analysis)

\+ resource management

\+ predictive forecasting of ecosystem conditions.

**Slide 11**:

. The plants, animals, microbes, and physical products from ecosystems
provide people, as well as other ecosystem components, with the energy,
water, biomass, medicine, and mineral resources needed to sustain human
societies.

. Understanding ecosystems and predicting ecosystem change requires
robust scientific assessments and modeling of ecosystem conditions as
climate and human-induced land changes occur.

. Ecosystems are inherently "interdisciplinary," with geographical,
biological, geological, hydrological, and other components.

. As you see in this diagram on the left, geology is literally at the
foundation of ecosystems. So, for many reasons, it is vital to know the
location and the characteristics of the Nation's geology.

**Slide 12**:

. Geologic mapping of the Nation has been a priority for the USGS since
its establishment in 1879. In recent years the Survey has pursued that
goal through the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP),
created by Congress with the National Geologic Mapping Act of 1992. This
program represents 15 years of successful cooperation among Federal,
State, and university partners in delivering state-of-the-art digital
geologic maps to the Nation in a cost-effective, timely manner.

. The mission of the NCGMP is to provide accurate geologic maps and
three-dimensional frameworks that contribute to advancing the quality of
life and economic vitality of the Nation and mitigating geologic
hazardous events and conditions.

. The three - and in some cases four (time) - dimensionality of geologic
maps provides subsurface data important in the development of models
such as ground-water flow, mineral deposition, and earthquake shaking.
Multipurpose geologic maps depict distribution of the Nation\'s
sediment, rocks, and resources.

. The goals of the program are to:

Produce multipurpose geologic maps and databases to solve diverse
land-use problems in high priority areas,

Develop 3-D frameworks for use in predictive models,

Make geologic map information more accessible to the public, and

Train the next generation of geologic mappers in universities.

**Slide 13**:

. The National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP) supports
geologic mapping studies by State geological surveys through a
competitive grant program that matches every Federal dollar with a State
dollar. Since 1993, more than \$65 million have been matched by 48
States.

. Since 1993, the Arizona Geological Survey has received more than \$2.5
million (matched 1:1 by the State) for geologic mapping to address
issues relating to water, mineral, and aggregate resources, flooding,
and earth fissures.

. Before we leave the topic of geologic mapping, I'd like to commend AZ
State Geologist Lee Allison for his vision and hard work in taking a
leading role in the development of the Geoscience Information Network
(GIN). Backed by AASG and USGS, this powerful concept of open source
standards and common protocols for earth science data will advance the
broader use and interoperability of geologic information both nationally
and internationally. Thank you, Lee.

**Slide 14**:

. Energy and mineral resource assessment and research are a traditional
strength of the USGS. Reliable information about energy and mineral
resources advances the scientific understanding of these resources at
local to global scales, facilitates the strategic use and evaluation of
resources, thereby contributing to the economic health of the Nation,
and leads to more effective management of the Nation's land, water, and
natural resources. Energy and mineral resources are the backbone of
human food supplies, shelter, economies, and national security.

. The United States is the largest user of mineral commodities and
energy resources in the world; its economy and standard of living depend
on them. Every year, about 25,000 pounds of new nonfuel mineral
materials from the earth must be provided for every person in the United
States just to maintain the current standard of living (Dorr and Paty,
2002).

. The USGS is the sole federal provider of unbiased research on mineral
potential, production, consumption and environmental effects. Minerals
information activities at the USGS have been providing the public with
data on minerals since the late 1800s (this function with the former
U.S. Bureau of Mines between 1923 and 1996).

. As you see in this chart, the production of aggregates is linked to
economic cycles. In fact, this relationship is so close that USGS
mineral data are used by the Federal Reserve System\'s Board of
Governors in preparing its index of industrial production, a principal
economic indicator. \[see USGS press release, 5/20/08\]

**Slide 15**:

. Arizona ranks as one of the leading producers of minerals in the
United States. Since 1994, the State has ranked in the top five U.S.
minerals producers, in terms of value. From 2005 to 2007, Arizona was
the leading mineral producer in the United States.

. It is well known that Arizona has been the leading copper producer in
the United States since 1910. Of the top 17 copper mines in the United
States, which accounted for 99% of the Nation's mine production of
copper in 2007, 9 are located in Arizona.

. In 2007, molybdenum concentrates ranked second, construction sand and
gravel, third, and cement, fourth among mineral commodities produced in
Arizona. Molybdenum concentrates had been ranked fourth from 1994 to
2002 during the period shown, but with the sharp increase in price, rose
from fourth to second between 2003 and 2005. Rhenium is a key byproduct
recovered from molybdenum concentrates in Arizona. Rhenium is
increasingly used in alloys for gas turbine engines in aircraft.

**Slide 16**:

. This slide shows the value of all mineral production in Arizona since
1994. The sharp increase in total value from 2003 to 2007 primarily
resulted from increases in copper and molybdenum prices during this
period.

. From 2003 to 2007, the average U.S. copper cathode price increased
from 85 cents per pound to \$3.28 per pound (+286%).

. The price of molybdenum increased even more dramatically during the
same time, increasing from an average of \$5.34 per pound in 2003 to
more than \$30.00 per pound in 2007 (+\>460%).

**Slide 17**:

*Image: Shaded-relief digital image of the Red Mountain topographic
block, viewed from the southeast. Hyperspectral data are draped over
three-dimensional topography. Mine locations are shown by the white
squares.*

. I understand that this well-informed group has had a recent update on
USGS participation in an extensive aerial hyperspectral survey of
Afghanistan. Of course, we can apply these same advanced techniques to
finding new or underutilized mineral resources in our own country.

. In this study, a hyperspectral survey mapped large areas of advanced
argillic and phyllic-argillic alteration associated with copper porphry
in the northern Patagonia Mountains, AZ. Hyperspectral sensors collect
continuous channels of data across the \~0.35-2.5 micron wavelength
region, making the identification of specific minerals, vegetation
species and anthropogenic materials possible. The hyperspectral data
produced useful results and demonstrated that it is a cost effective
approach to delineating altered areas across large geographic regions.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

. NASA\'s AVIRIS (Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) sensor
acquired the data in 1996 as part of a regional study by the USGS of the
structural controls on hydrothermal alteration and associated ore
deposits and how this mineralization affects ground-water quality in the
Santa Cruz River Basin. The Mineral Resources Program funded the data
acquisition. Data were collected from an modified ER2 aircraft flown at
19,800m (65,000\'), the pixel size is approximately 17 X 20 meters, with
224 spectral channels. The hyperspectral image mapped large areas of
advanced argillic and phyllic-argillic alteration associated with copper
porphry in the northern Patagonia Mountains, AZ. Two concealed copper
porphyry deposits have previously been identified during past
exploration, the Red Mountain and Sunnyside deposits. Related published
hydrothermal alteration zoning studies allowed the comparison of the
results from the hyperspectral data to the more traditional mapping
approaches. The hyperspectral data: were able to define additional
centers of hydrothermal alteration, other than those mapped by the
traditional techniques; produced useful results that make it a cost
effective approach to delineating altered areas in large geographic
areas; compares favorably with field-based studies. The alteration
sequences include Phyllic/argillic -- pyrophyllite at highest elevations
of Red Mountain, phyllic/argillic alteration shown as mix of clays &
alunite and pyrophyllite. Boundary with propyllic shown by decrease in
alunite and increase in kaolinite and muscovite/kaolinite mixtures at
lower elevations. These data were reported in "Utility of High-Altitude
Infrared Spectral Data in Mineral Exploration: Application to Northern
Patagonia Mountains, Arizona", by B. Berger, T. King, L. Marathi, and J.
Phillips, Economic Geology, 2003.

. Image and technical background supplied by Trude Ridley, USGS Denver.

**Slide 18**:

. Two issues will dominate the availability of energy and mineral
resources in the future: the effects of globalization and the likelihood
that land, water, and environmental changes from energy and mineral
extraction and consumption will factor more strongly into how societies
use resources.

. The first issue, globalization, results from modernization and
international commerce that have spurred the transport of goods among
nations. This global economy is increasing the competition for vital
natural resources, many of which are only available in foreign countries
because of unique geological circumstances. Developing countries, such
as China and India, are leading this global competition and their demand
for resources is expected to continue growing.

. The second issue, environmental effects, is also not new. The Nation
will have to balance the land, water, and environmental effects of
resource development and extraction with the benefits of use, and,
perhaps most important, it will have to plan for evolving and
unanticipated future energy and mineral resource requirements within
this broader environmental perspective of sustainability.

**Slide 19**:

. The Nation will have to balance the land, water, and environmental
effects of resource development and extraction with the benefits of use,
and, perhaps most important, it will have to plan for evolving and
unanticipated future energy and mineral resource requirements within
this broader environmental perspective of sustainability.

. Today, our growing and expanding society faces many pressing issues
that science can and must help address.

. Many of these issues transcend national boundaries. They're global in
nature. And many of them transcend traditional boundaries of academic
disciplines. Such multi-faceted challenges can rarely be addressed by a
single discipline.

. We need to use all the insight into natural systems that science can
provide in order to more effectively focus our efforts in confronting
the most pressing environmental and resource issues of our Nation.