**The Challenge of Sample Design During Civil War**

*Luka Biong DENG (PhD)*

*New Sudan Centre for Statistics and Evaluation, Southern Sudan*

**1. Introduction:**

Civil wars have become pronounced and endemic to many countries in the
world since the end of the Cold War. It is estimated that 20 per cent of
sub-Saharan Africa's population now live in countries that are at war
with themselves and low-intensity conflict has become endemic to many
other African countries (Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2000). In comparison to
other regions, Africa has the highest incidence of intense civil wars
with increasing trend during the last two decades. This upsurge of civil
wars has a considerable negative impact on the socio-economic structures
as well as on gathering of reliable data for effective humanitarian
intervention. While the need for data during civil war is a pressing
priority, the challenge for collecting reliable data and meeting the
requirements of a scientific probability sample is an arduous task.
Despite such difficulties, it is critically important to provide a
sampling framework for gathering quality data in the context of civil
war that is becoming increasingly a normal phenomenon.

The objective of this paper is to share the experience of Southern Sudan
in using somewhat unorthodox procedures in sample design for rural
surveys among the communities exposed to a prolonged civil war. Southern
Sudan has been in recurrent civil wars (1955-1972, 1982-now) with no
comprehensive population census carried out since the eruption of the
second civil war in 1982. The only reliable population census was the
one carried out almost half a century ago in 1953 during the colonial
period and the subsequent population censuses (1963, 1973, 1983, and
1993) were partially or not carried out in Southern Sudan as a result of
civil wars. Besides lack of recent census (enumeration areas), there are
no detailed maps and compounded further by high population movement as a
result of insecurity and erratic political changing in administrative
boundaries. With the high hope of peace in Sudan, there is now
preparation work for various surveys (Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey
(MICS) and Agricultural Survey) to be carried as building blocks for and
prior to the planned population census that will provide reliable
enumeration areas for a new sample frame. Meanwhile there is a pressing
need to design appropriate sample frame for such surveys.

**2. Sampling Framework: Traditional Social Hierarchy**

The real challenge during civil war is how to design and use sample that
will use the generally accepted probability sampling that is
representative and with sample size sufficient to achieve reliability
requirements. As the possibility of using existing sample is not an
option during civil war as a result of demographic changes and
displacement, it becomes necessary to design and select a new sample,
either "standard Segment Design" or "Modified Segment Design". In the
context of civil war, the modified segment methodology has an advantage
over the standard segment design as no household listing is needed but
it equally has a clear disadvantage in creating compact segments that
would make sampling less reliable. In collecting food security,
livelihood, health and demographic data in Southern Sudan, modified
segment methodology has been used (Deng, 2003).

Generally the sampling framework in Southern Sudan has been based on
traditional administrative structure (chief, sub-chief, headman,
households) that has steadily managed to survive during civil war, while
formal administrative structure (region, county, payam and boma) has
been recently formed and changing overtime with no clear boundaries. The
main idea is to use traditional social hierarchy as basis for sampling
but to conform to the formal administrative structure and hence used
somewhat unorthodox procedures to develop the frame and select the
sample in a three-stage probability sample. The first stage of sampling
was to list all executive chief jurisdictional areas as the primary
sampling units (PSUs) from which stratification was applied by using
serpentine geographical arrangement and systematic sampling to select
sample chiefs. Once the sample chiefs with clear geographical areas of
their jurisdiction have been selected from PSUs, the headmen that are
within their boundaries were identified and listed from which a sample
"headmen" are randomly selected. The sample headmen were then asked to
share their roster of households, from which a sample households are
randomly chosen for complete interview. Prior to sample selection, the
levels of formal administrative structure (region, county and payams)
were geographically sorted and stratified in serpentine order and
together with systematic sampling of chiefs formed "implicit
stratification".

**3. Conclusion:**

The aforementioned sample design is undoubtedly an inferior sampling
method but it is the most appropriate, effective and relevant
methodology in the context of civil war. The results of various surveys
that used such inferior sample design in Southern Sudan were
satisfactory offered without apology since probability sampling has been
in a way followed in these surveys. One apparent disadvantage of such
sample design is the fact that the sampling error will be larger than
what is ideally desired because of lack of reliable size measures for
stratification exercise (Turner, 1999). There is no doubt that such
sample design is not appropriate in the "normal" conditions where
standard sample framework could easily be applied (Dirk, 2004).

**References:**

Deng, L., 2003, "Confronting Civil: A Comparative Study of Household
Livelihood Strategies in Southern Sudan During 1990s", *PhD Thesis*,
Brighton: University of Sussex, Institute of Development Studies (IDS).

Elbadawi, I, and Sambanis, N., 2000, "Why are there many civil wars in
Africa? Understanding and Preventing Violent Conflict", *Journal of
African Economies* 9(3): 244-269.

Turner, A., 1999, "Sample Design and Procedures for Multiple Indicators
Cluster Survey of South Sudan", Nairobi: UNICEF.

Westhof, D., 2004, "Sampling and Sample Frame for Southern Sudan", New
York: UNICEF.