**[PROPOSED]{.underline}**

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**A. 2015 Cases to be created by SSG-WI**

> The following 2015 cases will be created by SSG-WI

1.  "Do Nothing" case

    a.  Loads - will be extrapolated to 2015 levels

    b.  No resources or transmission addition beyond 2008 case

    c.  Determine L&R by area, production costs by area, and congestion
        and congestion costs by area and location

2.  "Planned Resource Scenario" case

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a.  Resource additions (2008 to 2015) -- Add resources identified in
    utility IRPs, NWPCC 5^th^ Power Plan and other formal resource
    plans. Add renewables as necessary to meet RPSs.

b.  Perform L&R, set a target planning margin, and fill gaps with
    thermal units/RPS as needed

c.  Loads -- same as "Do Nothing" case

d.  Transmission -- Add transmission to integrate IRP resources and
    other transmission outlined in IRPs

e.  Run case, determine congestion and congestion costs by area/location

f\. Iterate to determine optimal regional transmission for the West that
relieves congestion and integrates the resources in the "Planned
Resource Scenario" case.

-   Determine capital investment for incremental resources and
    transmission

-   Determine annual fixed costs (real levelized)

-   Run load, gas price and hydro sensitivities

-   This case will be made available to others as a starting point for
    developing other resource and transmission scenarios

# B. Process to develop SSG-WI 2015 Cases 

1\. "Do Nothing" case -- **Load Forecasting Subgroup** will develop 2015
load forecast. **Modeling Team** will then run the "Do Nothing" case..

> 2\. "Planned Resource Scenario" case --

a.  Develop "strawman" matrix with required detail, for proposed
    resource additions (2009 to 2015). **Generation SubGroup (GSG)**
    will establish target planning margin for each area, and resolve
    discrepancies in the interpretation/application of RPS. Those
    identified below should complete the matrix and submit to the GSG
    for review, reconciliation, and iteration. Only after all detail is
    obtained to fill the straw matrix will the matrix be provided to
    Modeling Team.

    -   **CEC, CAISO, and CA IOUs:** CA resource additions

    -   **WIEB/LBL** -- IRP data from LBL for Avista, PSE, PGE, NWE,
        Sierra/NP, Xcel (Note: WIEB/LBL currently do not have the detail
        required to populate the matrix. Coordination with the utilities
        and SPGs will be required)

    -   **WIEB** -- PNM filing with PRC

    -   **BPA/NWPCC** -- NW Publics & NWPCC 5^th^ Power Plan. (Note:
        BPA/Council currently do not have the detail required to
        populate the matrix. Coordination with utilities and NTAC will
        be required)

    -   **PAC** -- PAC IRP

    -   **NREL/Modeling Team** -- Add renewables to meet RPS standards

> b **GSG** determines L&R by area. **SPG's and State/Province's**
> review "strawman" matrix, make revisions and **complete the details**
> missing in the matrix and submit comments to GSG. Submit to Modeling
> Team when details are complete.

c.  **Modeling Team** enters into model, and GSG, Modeling Team and
    Transmission SG iterate to determine transmission requirements for
    resources

d.  Prepare scenario material for review by SPGs and States/Provinces --
    **Modeling Team**

> f\. Refer discrepancies to TSG for resolution
>
> g.. If responses not received on time, go with "strawman"

**C. SCHEDULE**

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  **Due Date** **Activity**                               **Lead**

                                                          

  July 19      Convey proposed methodology to the TSG and Dean Perry
               PWG and ask for comment by July 26. Set up 
               Conference Call with all involved          
               individuals.                               

                                                          

  July 29      NM PRC/WIEB, CEC, BPA, etc. submit data to See 2a above for
               GSG. (See 2a above) NREL delivers to GSG   names
               renewable additions to meet RPSs.          

                                                          

  August 12    GSG performs L&R analysis, assembles       Mary Johannis (GSG)
               "strawman" \"Planned Resource\" scenario   
               including known modeling details and       
               documentation and sends to SWAT, NTAC,     
               RMATS, STEP WIEB and GSG. WIEB sends       
               scenario data to states/provinces. (see 2a 
               above)                                     

                                                          

  August 26    SPGs and States review "Planned Resource"  Chris Reese, Rob
               scenario. Complete all details needed for  Kondziolka, Ray
               modeling. Comments and suggested changes   Brush, STEP rep,
               sent to GSG. ALL MISSING RESOURCE DETAIL   WIEB
               in the matrix should be completed as part  (states/provinces)
               of the submittal. (see 2b above)           

                                                          

  September 9  GSG reviews data submittals, assures all   Mary Johannis (GSG)
               modeling details are included, resolves    
               issues and forwards to Modeling Team (see  
               2b above)                                  

                                                          

  September 16 Modeling Team enters data into model and   Mike DeWolf
               runs initial congestion studies and        (ModelingTeam)
               presents results to Transmission Subgroup  
               and GSGs. (see 2c above)                   

                                                          

  September 16 Transmission Subgroup identifies           Trans Subgroup Chair
               transmission requirements to address       
               congestion. Iterative process with         
               Modeling Team and GSG. (**Transmission     
               Subgroup Meeting**)                        

                                                          

  September 28 Modeling Team reruns studies to optimize   Mike DeWolf
               regional transmission to relieve           (Modeling Team)
               congestion, determines costs, runs         
               sensitivities and presents results to TSG. 
               **TSG Meeting to approve "Planned          
               Resource" scenario.**                      

                                                          
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