Number range CHAPTER**NWSFO SLC FIRE WEATHER 2007 ANNUAL REPORT**

JANUARY 16, 2008

**[2007 FWX Season Summary]{.underline}**

During the first two winter months (December and January) widespread
below normal precipitation was observed across Utah. The only area that
significantly differed from this was a swath from the southwest
mountains northeast into the western Uinta Basin. Outside this swath
precipitation was only 20-60% of normal. Finally, February brought
welcomed snow to most of the area with many sites reporting 110-150% of
normal. Only the northeast managed to have below normal precipitation.

March brought very warm and dry conditions to the majority of the
region. The snow pack was hard hit this month with the deepest snow pack
at Alta occurring in the first week of March rather than the first week
of April. This depleted snow pack was a harbinger of an extreme fire
season ahead. April continued in the same vein with warm and dry
conditions. Average precipitation for the two months combined was only
30-60% of normal. At Salt Lake City, April was the third driest on
record. This warm dry period prevailed through June, despite the one and
only significant storm in early June which brought monthly average
rainfall to portions of the north and 50 to 75% of monthly averages
across an area from the southwest through northeast. This four month
span of dry and warm conditions set the stage for an active summer.

Despite many areas (both valley and mountains) with/or near historic low
fuel moisture conditions and ERCs, there were relatively few fire starts
in June. This was attributed to the lack of any thunderstorms as the
southwest Monsoon was slow in organizing in the summer of 2007. The
first two weeks of July were very hot and dry with finally some monsoon
moisture invading the state by the second week. This moisture surge with
its many lightning strikes was considered more of a fire initiator
rather than a monsoon surge that brings relief. Utah experienced its
largest fire on record with the Milford Flats fire where over 380 square
miles were consumed. The hot conditions continued through the end of
July despite the periodic moisture surges associated with the monsoon.
Salt Lake City posted the hottest month on record with an average
reading of 84 degrees.

The affect of the monsoon in August varied greatly from place-to-place.
Portions of the north and west central Utah received over 180 percent of
normal, while over the majority of the state the percentage was more in
the 60-90% of normal range. Temperatures remained above normal across
the region. This combined with the previous two months to make the
summer of 2007 the hottest on record at Salt Lake City.

The fire season quickly came to a halt by the third week of September as
a couple of cold storms brought significant rains to the valleys with
snow to elevations above 7000 ft. The average precipitation for
September across the state was about 120-150% of normal. The jet stream
remained relatively active across the northern half of the fire district
through October while a ridge of high pressure became established over
the south. This scenario is very typical for a La Nina pattern which was
forecast to prevail during the 2007-2008 winter.

November fulfilled the expectations of a La Nina pattern with mild and
dry conditions. So much so that a record absence of snow was reported in
the northern Utah mountains. The high elevation precipitation was only
37% of normal. This dormant period though changed to a vigorous stormy
pattern that never relinquish throughout the month of December. The
state average precipitation was 136% of normal. The snow pack that was
nearly non-existent at the end of November climbed to over 100% of
normal by the end of December.

There were five large wildfires that required IMET support in the
district during 2007. They were: 1) Neola North Fire 6/30-7/11, 2)
Mathis 7/10-7/15, 3) Milford Flats Fire 7/11-7/16, 4) Salt Creek Fire
7/20-7/29, and 5) Dakota Hill 7/21-7/25.

Mark Struthwolf, Fire Weather Program Leader/IMET Trainee

National Weather Service

Salt Lake City

**[Wildfire Activity Report]{.underline}**

For complete breakdown by agencies and land owners, go to the following
link.

[**http://www.utahfireinfo.gov/ytd+media+links/yeartodate.htm**](http://www.utahfireinfo.gov/ytd+media+links/yeartodate.htm)

2007

TOTAL NUMBER OF WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT.....................\.....
1,535

TOTAL ACRES BLACKENED DUE TO WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT\... 647,296\*

[Agency]{.underline} [\# Wildfires]{.underline} [#Acres
burned]{.underline}

NUIFC 465 146,385

RIFC 184 275,075

CCIFC 496 169,575

MIFC 205 11,912

UBIFC 185 44,349\*

\*This number includes the Grand Junction CWA portion of the Uinta
Basin.

2006

TOTAL NUMBER OF WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT..................... 1,935

TOTAL ACRES BLACKENED DUE TO WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT\...368,505

[Agency]{.underline} [\# Wildfires]{.underline} [#Acres
burned]{.underline}

NUIFC 483 79,222

RIFC 306 87,729

CCIFC 877 188,637

MIFC 269 12,917

2005

TOTAL NUMBER OF WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX
DISTRICT............................1,117

TOTAL ACRES BLACKENED DUE TO WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT\...315,448

2004

TOTAL NUMBER OF WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX
DISTRICT\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...\...1,429

TOTAL ACRES BLACKENED DUE TO WILDFIRES IN SLC FWX DISTRICT\... 73,941

**[Red Flag Warning Verification for SLC for 2007]{.underline}**

TOTAL RED FLAG WARNINGS

\# issued 310 \[360 in 2006\]

\# verified 244 (41 Dry lightning, 203 Non lightning)

\# not verified 66 (19 Dry lightning, 47 Non lightning)

\# unwarned events 41 ( 6 Dry lightning, 35 Non lightning)

TOTAL RED FLAG WARNINGS

  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  YEAR           WRH Goals      2007           2006           2005

  \*FAR          0.37           0.21           0.25           0.13

  \*\*POD        0.82           0.86           0.90           0.92

  \*\*\*CSI      0.60           0.70           0.69           0.81

  Avg Lead Time  9.0 hrs        15.8 hrs       12.5 hrs       11.9 hrs
  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

RED FLAG WARNINGS (DRY THUNDERSTORM)

  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  YEAR           WRH Goals      2007           2006           2005

  FAR            0.49           0.32           0.28           0.10

  POD            0.72           0.87           0.83           0.95

  CSI            0.51           0.62           0.62           0.86

  Avg Lead Time  6.75 hrs       10.6 hrs       5.2 hrs        
  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

\# issued 60

\# verified 41

\# unwarned events 6

RED FLAG WARNINGS (WIND/LOW RH/OTHER)

  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  YEAR           WRH Goals      2007           2006           2005

  FAR            0.25           0.19           0.24           0.14

  POD            0.92           0.85           0.94           0.91

  CSI            0.69           0.71           0.73           0.80

  Avg Lead Time  11.25 hrs      16.8 hrs       16.9 hrs       
  -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

\# issued 250

\# verified 203

\# unwarned events 35

The greatest improvement over 2006 was the RFW average lead time for dry
thunderstorms. This was a direct result of the forecasters being
pro-active on the midnight shift by issuing RFWs rather than waiting for
the day shift to issue which was the practice in the past.

**[Verification Statistics Definitions]{.underline}**

\*FALSE ALARM RATIO

False Alarm Ratio is the ratio of Red Flag events warned but not
verified to the total number of actual Red Flag events.

\*\*PROBABILITY OF DETECTION

Probability of Detection is the ratio of Red Flag events warned to the
total number of actual Red Flag events.

\*\*\*CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX

Critical Success Index is the ratio of Red Flag events warned to the sum
of the false alarms and actual red flag events.

**[Fire Weather Watches Issued for SLC District]{.underline}**

  ---------------------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------
  Year                               2007     2006      2005      2004

  Fire Weather Watches Issued        206      199       132       95

  Watches preceded a Red Flag Event  180      144       116       76

  Average Lead Time                  17.5     18.1      29.0      26.8
  ---------------------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------

**[Spot Forecast Numbers for 2007]{.underline}**

  ---------------------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------
  Year                               2007     2006      2005      2004

  Total Spots                        988      1106      826       937

  Prescribed Burns                   472      564       481       555

  Wildfires                          506      530       333       377

  Search and Rescue                  10       11        9         4

  Hazmat                             0        1         2         0
  ---------------------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------

10 Year total number of spot forecasts: 6340

10 Year annual average number of spot forecasts: 634

5 Year annual average number of spot forecasts: 877

![](media/image1.wmf)

**[NWSFO SLC IMET dispatches in 2007]{.underline}**

Total of 32 days of IMET out of the office in 2007(38 in 2006)

(does not include 1-2 days of R&R upon return from dispatch)

IMET Trainee (Smith) served 6 days on 1 wildfire dispatch

IMET Trainee (Struthwolf) served 26 days on 3 wildfire dispatches

1\. Mathis Fire (7/10-7/15, near Price, UT)

2\. Dakota Hill Fire Complex (7/21-7/25), near Zion Nat'l Park, UT)

3\. BBD Fire Complex Fire (8/24-9/6, near Wisdom, MT)

4\. Witch Creek Fire (10/24-10/30, near Escondido, CA)

**[NWSFO SLC FWX training/coordination activities in 2007]{.underline}**

1.  Attended S-390 training, Boise, Jan (Struthwolf)

2.  Attended IMET Workshop, Boise, Mar (Struthwolf and Smith)

3.  Taught S-390 at Utah Fire Academy, Provo, Apr (Struthwolf)

> (Smith-attended as a student)

4.  Met with Ed Delgado and Shelby Sharples at EGBCC

5.  Taught S-290 at Ogden Fire Academy, Ogden, May (Struthwolf)

6.  Outreach visit to Northern Utah Interagency Fire Center, May
    (Struthwolf and Dunn)

7.  Outreach visit to Richfield and Color Country Dispatch, Jun
    (Struthwolf and Barjenbruch)

8.  Attended CAMEO/MARPLOT/ALOHA training, Riverton WY, Aug (Struthwolf)

9.  Attempted an Open House at the SLC WFO, but little response, Sep-Oct
    (Struthwolf)

> 10\. Presented SLC's 2007 RFW and SPOT statistics at the BLM Fall Fire
> Review in Richfield, Nov (Struthwolf)
>
> 11\. IS-700 National Incident Management System (NIMS) online
> training, Nov (Struthwolf)
>
> 12\. IS-800A, Nov (Struthwolf)

13\. Participated in the Eastern Great Basin Post Season Review AOP
Meeting, Nov (Struthwolf)

> 14\. Taught S-290 at Fire Academy, Provo, Dec (Struthwolf)

**[FWX program goals in 2008]{.underline}**

1\. Increased outreach activities across the CWA

-Meet with customers at dispatch and preseason meetings:

-   Have arranged to meet with dispatch coordinators in Moab in April)

-   Have coordinated a visit with Jeff Kline (BLM Fire Management
    Officer) in March

-   In-house seminar on the NFDRS scheduled for April

2\. Create in-house drills and perform local research:

-   Create an Articulate presentation on ALOHA and MARPLOT for Hazards

-   Collaborate with EGBCC on research concerning lightning starts
    verses RFWs issued for lightning

3\. Teach S-290, S-390 and other fire weather courses as needed

4\. Continued transition to IFPS-based Fire Weather Products

-Explore use of 7-day weather planner

5\. Increase Lead Time for Red Flag Warnings

6\. Improve POD and FAR for RFWs

7\. Promote use of GOTOMeeting for Coordination purposes

8\. Continue to address any concerns of NWS partners

**[FWX program concerns in 2008]{.underline}**

Fuels information from the field continued to be a problem in the
Eastern Great Basin region throughout 2008. Although there was a slight
improvement over 2007 through early July, due to little fire activity
and many resources available, once the fire season got into full swing
the fuels update in general became unreliable. Frequently, the condition
of the fuels was not updated for weeks to even months at a time. This
uncertainty of knowing whether the fuels are favorable to burn creates
issues in our office on issuing or not issuing RFWs. This concern was
addressed at the AOP in late November with the Eastern Great Basin GACC.

**[2007 SALT LAKE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT FORECAST PRODUCT
STATISTICS]{.underline}**

+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| M   | R      | Smoke   | Spot   | Spot  | Spot   | Spot   | Total   |
|     | outine |         |        |       |        |        | Spots   |
| O   |        | Man     | For    | Fore  | For    | For    |         |
|     | FWX    | agement | ecasts | casts | ecasts | ecasts |         |
| N   | Zone   |         | for    |       |        |        |         |
|     |        | Fo      |        | for   | for    | for    |         |
| T   | For    | recasts | Pres   |       |        |        |         |
|     | ecasts |         | cribed | Wild  | Wi     | Search |         |
| H   |        | Issued  |        | fires | ldfire | and    |         |
|     | Issued |         | Burns  |       |        | Rescue |         |
|     |        |         |        | (WIL) | Usage  | (SAR)  |         |
|     |        |         | (PRE)  |       |        |        |         |
|     |        |         |        |       | (WFU)  | /H     |         |
|     |        |         |        |       |        | azards |         |
|     |        |         |        |       |        |        |         |
|     |        |         |        |       |        | (HAZ)  |         |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| JAN | 0      | 0       | 15     | 0     | 0      | 0      | 15      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| FEB | 0      | 0       | 35     | 0     | 0      | 0      | 35      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| MAR | 1      | 0       | 40     | 3     | 0      | 0      | 43      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| APR | 29     | 1       | 73     | 3     | 0      | 1/0    | 77      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| MAY | 62     | 31      | 44     | 3     | 14     | 2/0    | 63      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| JUN | 60     | 30      | 19     | 52    | 5      | 2/0    | 78      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| JUL | 62     | 31      | 14     | 123   | 5      | 2/0    | 144     |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| AUG | 62     | 31      | 0      | 52    | 75     | 3/0    | 130     |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| SEP | 60     | 30      | 28     | 34    | 128    | 0      | 190     |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| OCT | 40     | 13      | 101    | 6     | 0      | 0      | 107     |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| NOV | 0      | 0       | 68     | 3     | 0      | 0      | 71      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| DEC | 0      | 0       | 35     | 0     | 0      | 0      | 35      |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+
| TO  | 376    | 167     | 472    | 279   | 227    | 10/0   | 988     |
| TAL |        |         |        |       |        |        |         |
+-----+--------+---------+--------+-------+--------+--------+---------+

[Lead Times:]{.underline}

WFO SLC

PRESCRIPTION 472 31.1\*

WILDFIRE 279 28.9\*

WILDFIRE USE 227 32.0\*

SEARCH AND RESCUE 10 20.2

HAZMAT 0 00.0

\* Inflated due to some requests submitted in the evening but not needed
until the following morning.

Figures 1 and 2 are from NCDC showing the 2007 statewide ranking for
temperature and precipitation. Figures 3 and 4 are also from NCDC and
they show the regional deviations of temperature and precipitation in
2007. Finally, Fig. 5 is the Standardized Precipitation Index.

Fig. 1. Temperatures across the area were much above normal for 2007.

![](media/image2.png){width="6.5in" height="5.339583333333334in"}

Fig. 2. As a whole, precipitation was below normal statewide.

![](media/image3.png){width="6.5in" height="5.339583333333334in"}

Fig. 3. Temperatures much above normal in 2007 across central and
eastern portions of Utah, while the western valleys were above normal.

![](media/image4.png){width="6.5in" height="5.339583333333334in"}

Fig. 4. Utah's 12 month precipitation varies from near normal in the
southeast to much below normal over the western valleys.

![](media/image5.png){width="6.5in" height="5.339583333333334in"}

Fig. 5. Utah's Standardized Precipitation Index varies from near normal
in the southeast to severely dry over the western valleys.

![](media/image6.png){width="6.5in" height="5.339583333333334in"}