Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Ophelia

6-17 September 2005

Jack Beven and Hugh D. Cobb, III

National Hurricane Center

24 January 2006

Updated track near Nova Scotia 14 June 2006

Hurricane Ophelia was a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale that brushed the North Carolina Outer Banks, its center
staying just offshore from that coast. The storm's erratic and slow
movement in the vicinity of the North Carolina coastline was similar to
Hurricanes Bonnie in August 1998 and Dennis in August 1999.

a.  Synoptic History

    Ophelia formed from a non-tropical weather system. A cold front
    moved off the eastern coast of the United States on 1 September. The
    front moved southeastward and became part of an elongated trough of
    low pressure that extended from Tropical Depression Lee east of
    Bermuda to near the Florida Peninsula. Two areas of low pressure
    formed in the trough on 4 September. The eastern low, south of
    Bermuda, eventually became Hurricane Nate. The western low, near the
    Bahamas, became Ophelia.

    The pre-Ophelia low initially drifted southward. It began a
    northward drift on 5 September while the associated shower activity
    became better organized. Based on satellite, surface, and radar
    observations, it is estimated the low became a tropical depression
    near 0600 UTC 6 September between Andros and Grand Bahama Islands.
    The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in
    Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1.

    The depression moved generally northward, with the broad circulation
    center crossing Grand Bahama about 1600 UTC 6 September. It then
    moved north-northwestward parallel to the east coast of Florida,
    reaching a position about 70 n mi east-northeast of Cape Canaveral
    on 7 September. The cyclone became a tropical storm early on 7
    September, and gradual strengthening would occur during the next 24
    h as Ophelia made a slow counter-clockwise loop off the Florida east
    coast. Steering currents were very weak at this time, as Ophelia
    remained embedded in a broad trough that extended from Hurricane
    Maria east of Bermuda through the developing Nate and Ophelia and
    across Florida.

    Ophelia was briefly a hurricane late on 8 September, with the
    cyclone weakening back to a tropical storm about 6 h later. A
    similarly short-lived hurricane phase occurred late on 9 September
    while Ophelia moved east-northeastward away from Florida. Ophelia
    became a hurricane for a third time on 10 September, this time
    holding hurricane status for 36 hours. The cyclone made a slow
    clockwise loop on 11-12 September, and it is possible that weakening
    back to a tropical storm on 12 September was due to Ophelia passing
    over its wake of upwelled cooler water. After completing the loop,
    the storm drifted northwestward on 13 September.

    Ophelia moved slowly northward early on 14 September and became a
    hurricane for the fourth time. A gradual turn toward the
    north-northeast brought the northern portion of the 50 n mi wide eye
    over the coast of North Carolina near Cape Fear later that day,
    although the actual center of circulation stayed offshore. Ophelia
    moved generally east-northeastward parallel to the North Carolina
    coast for much of 14-15 September, with the northern eyewall passing
    over the coastal area from Wilmington to Morehead City. During this
    time, the hurricane reached its peak intensity of 75 kt, although
    these winds remained offshore.

    Ophelia turned eastward late on 15 September while passing south of
    Cape Hatteras. A combination of increasing vertical shear and dry
    air intrusion caused weakening, and Ophelia became a tropical storm
    early on 16 September. As an upper-level trough and associated
    surface front approached from the west, the storm turned
    northeastward and accelerated late on 16 September. This motion
    brought the center about 60 n mi southeast of the Massachusetts
    coast on 17 September, then over eastern Nova Scotia and
    Newfoundland on 18 September. Ophelia gradually lost organization
    during this period, and it became extratropical early on 18
    September. As an extratropical low, Ophelia moved east-northeastward
    across the Atlantic on 19-20 September, then northeastward on 21-22
    September. The cyclone dissipated over the North Sea on 23
    September.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Ophelia (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based
    Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and
    the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level
    and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command and
    the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. Microwave satellite imagery
    from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall
    Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Aqua, the NASA QuikSCAT, the
    Department of Defense WindSat, and Defense Meteorological Satellite
    Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking Ophelia.

    The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft made 105
    center fixes during Ophelia's lifetime. The maximum flight-level
    winds observed during the storm were 91 kt from a NOAA aircraft at
    700 mb at 2124 UTC 11 September. While these winds would support
    surface winds of 80 kt using the normal 90% adjustment from 700 mb,
    the maximum surface winds the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer
    (SFMR) were during the flight were only 64 kt. Winds from other
    flight-levels and dropsondes near that time also suggest surface
    winds closer to 65 kt. The peak intensity of 75 kt on 11 September
    is based on 85 kt winds at 700 mb at 0615 UTC that day, supported by
    a dropsonde wind of 80-kt at 13 m at 0434 UTC. The second peak
    intensity of 75 kt on 14-15 September is based on multiple
    occurrences of 80-85 kt winds at 700 mb, along with SFMR
    observations of 75-80 kt winds. A notable aircraft observation was a
    74 kt wind at 925 mb on 16 September measured by the first ever
    successful Aerosonde robotic aircraft mission into the core of a
    tropical cyclone. The lowest aircraft-observed central pressure was
    976 mb at 1218 UTC 10 September.

    Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with
    Ophelia are given in Table 2. The most noteworthy observations
    include a report of 64-kt winds from the **Sanmar** (call sign V2EX)
    at 0000 UTC 15 September, and a report of 62-kt winds from the
    **Maersk New Orleans** (call sign ELZY3) at 0600 UTC 14 September.
    Both ships were about 85 n mi east-northeast of the center at those
    times. A pair of drifting buoys reported winds of 70 kt and 62 kt,
    although the accuracy of these reports is uncertain.

    Ophelia brought hurricane conditions to portions of the North
    Carolina coast; selected surface observations from land stations and
    data buoys are given in Table 3. The strongest reported winds were
    from the Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Station at Cape
    Lookout, which reported 2-min average winds of 65 kt (9.8-m
    elevation) at 2309 UTC 14 September with a gust to 80 kt. The
    National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Wrightsville Beach reported
    6-min average winds of 59 kt at 1700 UTC 14 September with a gust of
    69 kt. There was an unofficial report of a gust of 90 kt in Davis.

    Ophelia also brought tropical-storm force winds to portions of the
    east-central coast of Florida and the northeastern coast of South
    Carolina. A NASA station at Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds
    of 34 kt at 1520 UTC 8 September with a gust of 52 kt. Myrtle Beach,
    South Carolina reported a gust of 38 kt.

    The lowest pressure observed by a coastal station or buoy was 980.7
    mb at the Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina C-MAN station at 1300
    UTC 14 September. The nearby NOAA buoy 41013 measured a 980.8 mb
    pressure three hours earlier as the large eye drifted across both
    stations. The NOS station at Wrightsville Beach measured a 984.9 mb
    pressure at 1854 UTC 14 September.

    Ophelia caused storm surges of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels in
    the Pamlico Sound including the lower reaches of the Neuse, Pamlico,
    and Newport Rivers. Surges of 4 to 6 ft also occurred along the open
    coasts in Onslow and Cataret counties. Storm surges of 3 to 4 ft
    above normal tide levels were common elsewhere along the affected
    areas of the North Carolina coast. Ophelia also caused tides of 1 to
    2 ft above normal along the Florida coast.

    Ophelia's slow movement near the North Carolina coast helped produce
    locally heavy rains. The water treatment plant at Oak Island
    reported a storm-total rainfall of 17.50 in, while the Remote
    Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) station at the Nature Conservancy
    reported 11.74 inches.

    No tornadoes have been reported with Ophelia.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    One death was directly associated with Ophelia -- a drowning in high
    surf in Palm Beach County, Florida. One death was indirectly
    associated with Opehlia after it became extratropical -- a fall from
    a roof during rain in Nova Scotia.

    The American Insurance Services Group estimates the property damage
    from Ophelia at \$35 million. Applying a doubling of this to cover
    damage to uninsured property yields a total damage estimate of \$70
    million. It should be noted that the Insurance Information Institute
    originally provided an estimate of \$800 million in damage, which
    was the basis for the \$1.6 billion reported in the annual summary
    released by the Tropical Prediction Center in December. This figure
    was an estimate of damage by a model, not an actual report of damage
    claims.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    Average official track errors (with the number of cases in
    parentheses) for Ophelia were 23 (44), 38 (42), 53 (40), 68 (38),
    103 (34), 157 (30), and 200 (26) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72,
    96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are considerably
    lower than the average official track errors for the 10-yr period
    1995-2004[^1] (42, 75, 107, 138, 202, 236, and 310 n mi,
    respectively), with the Ophelia errors being about 50% less than the
    average from 12-72 hr (Table 4). The official forecasts were quite
    good in depicting the overall slow motion of Ophelia and the turn
    toward the west on 12-13 September. However, there were some larger
    errors for forecasts on 11-12 September that resulted from
    forecasting too fast of a northeastward motion as Ophelia passed
    near North Carolina.

    The consensus models CONU, GUNS, and GUNA had lower track forecast
    errors than the official forecast at all times. Amongst the
    dynamical models, the ensemble mean of the National Weather Service
    Global Forecasting System had errors lower than the official
    forecast from 12-48 hr, while the United Kingdom Meteorological
    Office global model had lower errors than the official forecast at
    96 and 120 hr.

    Average official intensity errors were 5, 6, 8, 8, 8, 14, and 21 kt
    for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively.
    For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr
    period 1995-2004 are 6, 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, and 22 kt, respectively.
    The intensity forecasts were accurate in predicting that Ophelia's
    strengthening would be limited. Some errors resulted from the timing
    of the storm's intensity cycles, while others resulted from landfall
    forecasts that did not verify.

    Table 5 shows the coastal watches and warnings issued for Ophelia.

    The development of Ophelia was fairly well forecast in TPC products.
    The surface trough that spawned both Ophelia and Nate was noted in
    the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) on 2 September, and the potential
    for Ophelia to develop was noted in both the TWO and the TAFB danger
    graphic product on 4 September.

Acknowledgements

Much of the data for this report was supplied by the National Weather
Service WFOs in Melbourne and Jacksonville, Florida, Wilmington and
Morehead City, North Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina. Chris
Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Center provided data showing that
Ophelia made landfall in Nova Scotia as an extratropical low. NOAA buoy
and C-MAN data were provided by the National Data Buoy Center, and were
augmented by data from the Skidaway Institute of Oceanography, the
Carolinas Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction System (CARO-COOPS),
the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring Program (CORMP), and the Gulf
of Maine Ocean Observing System (GOMOOS). NOS data were provided by the
NOAA National Ocean Service. Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS)
data were provided by the National Interagency Fire Center. Much of the
track for the extratropical portion of Ophelia was provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center. Several of the unofficial observations were obtained
from the Weather Underground web site.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Ophelia, 6-17
September 2005. East longitudes are expressed as negative numbers.

+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| Da      | L       | Lo      | P       | Wind    | Stage           |
| te/Time | atitude | ngitude | ressure | Speed   |                 |
|         |         |         |         |         |                 |
| (UTC)   | (^o^N)  | (^o^W)  | (mb)    | (kt)    |                 |
+=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+=================+
| 06 /    | 25.8    | 78.6    | 1009    | 25      | tropical        |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 06 /    | 26.3    | 78.3    | 1010    | 25      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 06 /    | 26.8    | 78.3    | 1010    | 25      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 07 /    | 27.4    | 78.5    | 1006    | 30      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 07 /    | 27.9    | 78.8    | 1003    | 35      | tropical storm  |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 07 /    | 28.7    | 79.2    | 1000    | 40      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 07 /    | 28.8    | 79.3    | 997     | 45      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 08 /    | 28.8    | 79.3    | 994     | 45      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 08 /    | 28.7    | 79.6    | 994     | 50      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 08 /    | 28.6    | 79.6    | 988     | 55      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 08 /    | 28.6    | 79.5    | 988     | 60      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 09 /    | 28.6    | 79.3    | 990     | 65      | hurricane       |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 09 /    | 28.9    | 79.3    | 990     | 55      | tropical storm  |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 09 /    | 29.3    | 79.1    | 983     | 55      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 09 /    | 29.8    | 78.5    | 983     | 65      | hurricane       |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 10 /    | 30.2    | 77.5    | 983     | 60      | tropical storm  |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 10 /    | 30.9    | 76.9    | 984     | 60      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 10 /    | 31.5    | 76.6    | 976     | 65      | hurricane       |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 10 /    | 31.7    | 76.2    | 977     | 70      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 11 /    | 31.8    | 75.9    | 977     | 70      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 11 /    | 31.7    | 75.9    | 978     | 75      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 11 /    | 31.6    | 75.7    | 978     | 70      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 11 /    | 31.4    | 75.9    | 978     | 65      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 12 /    | 31.2    | 76.2    | 980     | 60      | tropical storm  |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 12 /    | 31.2    | 76.6    | 985     | 60      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 12 /    | 31.5    | 76.9    | 988     | 55      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 12 /    | 31.7    | 77.3    | 989     | 60      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 13 /    | 31.8    | 77.7    | 989     | 60      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 13 /    | 31.9    | 77.9    | 990     | 60      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 13 /    | 32.1    | 78.0    | 989     | 60      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 13 /    | 32.3    | 78.1    | 988     | 60      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 32.6    | 78.1    | 985     | 65      | hurricane       |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 32.9    | 78.0    | 980     | 70      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 33.4    | 77.7    | 980     | 75      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 33.9    | 77.5    | 979     | 75      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 34.2    | 76.9    | 979     | 75      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 34.5    | 76.3    | 982     | 70      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 34.7    | 75.8    | 984     | 65      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 34.7    | 75.6    | 986     | 65      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 16 /    | 34.6    | 75.1    | 987     | 60      | tropical storm  |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 16 /    | 34.7    | 74.8    | 993     | 55      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 16 /    | 35.4    | 74.4    | 995     | 50      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 16 /    | 36.4    | 73.6    | 993     | 55      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 17 /    | 37.3    | 72.7    | 995     | 55      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 17 /    | 38.7    | 71.4    | 1000    | 50      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 17 /    | 40.0    | 69.7    | 997     | 50      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 17 /    | 41.6    | 67.3    | 995     | 50      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 18 /    | 43.2    | 64.9    | 996     | 45      | extratropical   |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 18 /    | 44.8    | 62.6    | 1000    | 45      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 18 /    | 46.2    | 59.9    | 1000    | 45      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 18 /    | 47.4    | 56.2    | 999     | 45      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 19 /    | 48.4    | 52.3    | 1000    | 45      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 19 /    | 49.0    | 48.8    | 1001    | 45      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 19 /    | 49.5    | 45.7    | 1000    | 45      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 19 /    | 50.0    | 42.1    | 999     | 45      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 20 /    | 50.9    | 38.5    | 998     | 45      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 20 /    | 51.5    | 34.7    | 1000    | 40      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 20 /    | 52.2    | 30.5    | 1003    | 40      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 20 /    | 52.8    | 26.5    | 1001    | 40      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 53.8    | 22.0    | 998     | 40      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 55.3    | 17.7    | 998     | 35      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 57.6    | 14.6    | 998     | 35      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 59.8    | 11.9    | 996     | 35      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 61.7    | 8.4     | 993     | 35      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 63.6    | 4.5     | 993     | 35      | "               |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 65.6    | 1.0     | 994     | 35      | "               |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 67.5    | -1.9    | 995     | 30      | "               |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    | 68.8    | -6.6    | 997     | 30      | "               |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    |         |         |         |         | dissipated      |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 06 /    | 26.6    | 78.3    | 1010    | 25      | landfall on     |
| 1600    |         |         |         |         | Grand Bahama    |
|         |         |         |         |         | Island          |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 10 /    | 31.5    | 76.6    | 976     | 65      | minimum         |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         | pressure        |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 33.4    | 77.7    | 980     | 75      | maximum wind    |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected ship and drifting buoy reports
with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Ophelia, 6-17 September 2005.

+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| Da      | Ship name/call    | La     | Lon    | Wind      | P       |
| te/Time | sign              | titude | gitude |           | ressure |
| (UTC)   |                   |        |        | dir/speed |         |
|         |                   | (^o^N) | (^o^W) | (kt)      | (mb)    |
+=========+===================+========+========+===========+=========+
| 07 /    | **Lykes           | 32.6   | 79.3   | 060 / 36  | 1016.5  |
| 0100    | Liberator**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 07 /    | **CSX Discovery** | 29.6   | 79.8   | 040 / 37  | 1008.0  |
| 1000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 07 /    | **CSX Discovery** | 29.3   | 79.4   | 060 / 37  | 1006.0  |
| 1100    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 07 /    | **P&O Nedlloyd    | 33.3   | 76.8   | 090 / 38  | 1018.4  |
| 1200    | Marseille**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 07 /    | **DSR Port Said** | 33.5   | 77.2   | 040 / 35  | 1018.5  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 08 /    | **Leverkusen      | 28.9   | 77.4   | 130 / 35  | 1010.0  |
| 0600    | Express**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 08 /    | **Madison         | 31.0   | 78.8   | 050 / 39  | 1013.0  |
| 1200    | Maersk**          |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 08 /    | **Asphalt         | 29.5   | 77.5   | 190 / 50  | 1006.0  |
| 1600    | Commander**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | **CSX Producer**  | 28.6   | 79.0   | 170 / 60  | 995.5   |
| 0000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | Buoy 41542        | 29.0   | 78.1   | \*\*\* /  | 1006.3  |
| 0300    |                   |        |        | 54        |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | **Lykes           | 30.9   | 78.7   | 040 / 43  | 1007.0  |
| 1100    | Navigator**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | **Lykes           | 31.2   | 78.7   | 030 / 44  | 1018.5  |
| 1200    | Navigator**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | **Paris Express** | 31.9   | 79.9   | 020 / 41  | 1011.0  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | 9V6488            | 30.0   | 80.6   | 010 / 35  | 1010.0  |
| 2100    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | Buoy 41542        | 29.4   | 77.8   | \*\*\* /  | 1000.8  |
| 2100    |                   |        |        | 35        |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | Buoy 41934        | 28.9   | 76.3   | \*\*\* /  | 1007.2  |
| 2152    |                   |        |        | 41        |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 09 /    | **Bonn Express**  | 30.4   | 76.9   | 130 / 45  | 1001.8  |
| 2300    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 10 /    | **Star Istind**   | 32.8   | 76.2   | 050 / 44  | 1009.0  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 10 /    | **Singapore Bay** | 33.7   | 74.8   | 090 / 40  | 1010.6  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 10 /    | **Green Dale**    | 33.7   | 77.0   | 040 / 40  | 1013.0  |
| 2100    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 10 /    | **Singapore Bay** | 32.2   | 74.8   | 260 / 39  | 1003.4  |
| 2200    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 11 /    | Buoy 41935        | 31.2   | 76.3   | \*\*\* /  | 1002.0  |
| 0019    |                   |        |        | 62        |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 11 /    | Buoy 41935        | 31.2   | 76.3   | \*\*\* /  | 1002.8  |
| 0236    |                   |        |        | 70        |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 11 /    | **Fortune Pioneer | 34.3   | 71.3   | 080 / 44  | 1021.0  |
| 1700    | I**               |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 11 /    | **Jens Maersk**   | 29.6   | 75.1   | 230 / 40  | 1010.5  |
| 2100    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 11 /    | **OOCL Freedom**  | 33.6   | 77.1   | 030 / 47  | 1013.0  |
| 2100    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 12 /    | **Shanghai        | 29.9   | 78.4   | 320 / 35  | 1011.8  |
| 0600    | Express**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 12 /    | ZCAM5             | 31.5   | 74.6   | 130 / 37  | 1009.5  |
| 0600    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 12 /    | **Sealand         | 33.6   | 77.2   | 080 / 43  | 1007.5  |
| 1800    | Performance**     |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 12 /    | **Sealand         | 34.1   | 76.6   | 090 / 42  | 999.8   |
| 2100    | Performance**     |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 13 /    | **Overseas New    | 33.1   | 78.1   | 050 / 45  | 1005.2  |
| 0000    | Orleans**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 13 /    | **Sealand         | 31.5   | 77.4   | 200 / 50  | 994.0   |
| 0600    | Liberator**       |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 13 /    | **OOCL Freedom**  | 33.7   | 77.0   | 120 / 35  | 1007.5  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 14 /    | WABU              | 31.1   | 77.2   | 230 / 37  | 1006.4  |
| 0000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 14 /    | **Montebello**    | 31.4   | 77.7   | 240 / 51  | 1003.0  |
| 0600    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 14 /    | **Maersk New      | 32.4   | 76.5   | 160 / 62  | 1003.0  |
| 0600    | Orleans**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 15 /    | **Sanmar**        | 34.5   | 75.3   | 150 / 64  | 1004.5  |
| 0000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 15 /    | **Sanmar**        | 34.3   | 75.2   | 210 / 51  | 1004.0  |
| 0300    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 15 /    | **Jens Maersk**   | 32.8   | 74.5   | 180 / 35  | 1011.1  |
| 1200    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 15 /    | SHIP              | 33.5   | 75.5   | 210 / 51  | 1007.0  |
| 1500    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 16 /    | HPII              | 33.4   | 73.3   | 190 / 40  |         |
| 0000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 17 /    | ZDGR8             | 33.3   | 72.7   | 190 / 45  | 1015.6  |
| 0000    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 17 /    | V7DI7             | 36.2   | 69.6   | 210 / 36  | 1016.2  |
| 0600    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 17 /    | **Afhankelijk**   | 40.9   | 65.7   | 190 / 45  | 1003.6  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 17 /    | **German          | 41.8   | 62.1   | 260 / 37  |         |
| 1900    | Senator**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Selected surface observations for Hurricane
Ophelia, 6-17 September 2005.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Florida**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bings Landing   | 0   | 100 |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| (NOS)           | 9/0 | 9.5 |     |       |     | .55 |     |     |
|                 | 900 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cape Canaveral  |     |     | 0   | 34    | 52  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 8/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (NASA Wind      |     |     | 520 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Tower 394)      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fernandina      | 0   | 101 | 0   | 16    | 28  | 1   |     |     |
| Beach (NOS)     | 9/0 | 0.7 | 9/1 |       |     | .65 |     |     |
|                 | 900 |     | 000 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Mayport (KNRB)  | 0   | 100 | 0   | 28    | 34  |     |     |     |
|                 | 9/0 | 9.5 | 8/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 826 |     | 412 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Mayport (NOS)   | 0   | 101 | 0   |       | 37  | 3   |     |     |
|                 | 9/0 | 0.1 | 8/1 |       |     | .03 |     |     |
|                 | 824 |     | 018 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Melbourne (NWS) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .96 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NAS             | 0   | 101 | 0   | 33    |     |     |     |     |
| Jacksonville    | 9/0 | 0.2 | 8/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (KNIP)          | 848 |     | 838 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NASA Shuttle    | 0   | 100 | 0   | 19    | 38  |     |     | 2   |
| Landing         | 8/0 | 6.4 | 8/1 |       |     |     |     | .79 |
| Facility (KTTS) | 855 |     | 855 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| New Smyrna      | 0   | 100 | 0   | 31    | 40  |     |     |     |
| Beach (KEVB)    | 9/1 | 8.8 | 8/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 055 |     | 250 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Patrick AFB     | 0   | 100 | 0   | 25    | 36  |     |     | 2   |
| (KCOF)          | 8/1 | 6.1 | 8/1 |       |     |     |     | .03 |
|                 | 955 |     | 955 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| St. Augustine   | 0   | 100 | 0   | 26    | 34  |     |     |     |
| (KSGJ)          | 9/0 | 8.8 | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 815 |     | 255 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Vilano Beach    |     |     |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| (NOS)           |     |     |     |       |     | .93 |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **North         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Carolina**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Back Island     |     |     | 1   |       | 55  |     |     | 7   |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 4/2 |       |     |     |     | .04 |
|                 |     |     | 315 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Beaufort (KMRH) | 1   | 99  | 1   | 37^e^ | 55  |     |     | 4   |
|                 | 4/2 | 1.8 | 4/2 |       | ^e^ |     |     | .78 |
|                 | 356 |     | 328 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Beaufort (RAWS) |     |     | 1   |       | 39  |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .92 |
|                 |     |     | 615 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bogue Field     | 1   | 99  |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (KNJM)          | 4/2 | 3.2 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 033 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cape Hatteras   | 1   | 99  | 1   | 57^e^ | 72  |     |     | 2   |
| (KHSE)          | 5/1 | 3.1 | 5/1 |       | ^e^ |     |     | .85 |
|                 | 256 |     | 256 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cherry Point    | 1   | 99  | 1   | 37    | 64  |     |     | 4   |
| (KNKT)          | 5/0 | 4.2 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .57 |
|                 | 555 |     | 655 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Croatan (RAWS)  |     |     | 1   |       | 51  |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .43 |
|                 |     |     | 905 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Elizabeth City  | 1   | 1   | 1   | 30    | 39  |     |     | 0   |
| (KECG)          | 5/0 | 008 | 5/1 |       |     |     |     | .53 |
|                 | 854 |     | 552 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Elizabethtown   | 1   | 100 |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
| (KEYF)          | 4/1 | 2.7 |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
|                 | 820 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Hoffman Forest  |     |     | 1   |       | 41  |     |     | 4   |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .26 |
|                 |     |     | 105 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Kinston (KISO)  |     |     | 1   | 23    | 34  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 643 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Kenansville     |     |     | 1   | 23    | 35  |     |     |     |
| (KDPL)          |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 903 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Kitty Hawk      |     |     | 1   | 20    | 31  |     |     |     |
| (KFFA)          |     |     | 5/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 540 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Manteo (KMQI)   |     |     | 1   | 28    | 33  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 5/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 726 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nature          |     |     | 1   |       | 53  |     |     | 11  |
| Conservancy     |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .74 |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 715 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| New Bern (KEWN) | 1   | 100 | 1   | 32    | 44  |     |     | 3   |
|                 | 5/0 | 0.0 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .46 |
|                 | 354 |     | 241 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| New River       | 1   | 99  | 1   | 38    | 55  |     |     | 5   |
| (KNCA)          | 4/2 | 4.2 | 4/2 |       |     |     |     | .12 |
|                 | 156 |     | 156 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Newport (KMHX)  | 1   | 99  | 1   | 31    | 49  |     |     | 9   |
|                 | 5/0 | 0.5 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .39 |
|                 | 420 |     | 534 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Onslow Beach    | 1   | 98  | 1   | 53    | 68  |     |     |     |
| (RSLN7)         | 4/2 | 5.0 | 4/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 322 |     | 125 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Pea Island      | 1   | 100 | 1   |       | 57  |     |     |     |
| (PEIN7)         | 5/0 | 3.0 | 5/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 850 |     | 236 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Richlands       |     |     | 1   | 30    | 49  |     |     |     |
| (KOAJ)          |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 015 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sandy Run       |     |     | 1   |       | 40  |     |     | 5   |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     | .06 |
|                 |     |     | 015 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Southport       | 1   | 98  | 1   | 36    | 56  |     |     | 7   |
| (KSUT)          | 4/1 | 8.1 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .38 |
|                 | 504 |     | 824 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Stumpy Point    | 1   | 100 | 1   |       | 37  |     |     |     |
| (SPON7)         | 5/0 | 4.0 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 750 |     | 740 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sunset Beach    | 1   | 99  | 1   | 33    | 47  | 2   |     |     |
| (CARO-COOPS)    | 4/1 | 5.6 | 4/1 |       |     | .85 |     |     |
|                 | 324 |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sunny Point     |     |     | 1   |       | 59  |     |     | 10  |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .74 |
|                 |     |     | 815 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Swan Quarter    | 1   | 100 | 1   |       | 49  |     |     |     |
| (SWQN7)         | 5/0 | 0.0 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 730 |     | 856 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Turnbull Creek  |     |     | 1   |       | 42  |     |     | 2   |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .81 |
|                 |     |     | 815 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Washington      |     |     | 1   | 20    | 33  |     |     |     |
| (KOCW)          |     |     | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 643 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Whiteville      |     |     | 1   |       | 39  |     |     | 3   |
| (RAWS)          |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .18 |
|                 |     |     | 815 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Wilmington      | 1   | 98  | 1   | 42    | 59  |     |     | 8   |
| (KILM)          | 4/1 | 9.5 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .23 |
|                 | 850 |     | 658 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Wrightsville    | 1   | 98  | 1   | 59    | 69  | 4   |     |     |
| Beach (NOS)     | 4/1 | 4.8 | 4/1 |       |     | .19 |     |     |
|                 | 854 |     | 700 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **South         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Carolina**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Charleston      | 1   | 100 | 1   | 23    | 33  |     |     | 0   |
| (KCHS)          | 3/2 | 6.8 | 3/2 |       |     |     |     | .06 |
|                 | 251 |     | 334 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Charleston      |     |     |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| Harbor (NOS)    |     |     |     |       |     | .64 |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fripps Inlet    |     |     |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| (CARO-COOPS)    |     |     |     |       |     | .78 |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Myrtle Beach    | 1   | 100 | 1   | 25    | 38  |     |     |     |
| (KMYR)          | 4/1 | 0.7 | 4/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 050 |     | 455 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| North Myrtle    | 1   | 99  | 1   | 20    | 33  |     |     | 6   |
| Beach (KCRE)    | 4/1 | 9.7 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     | .30 |
|                 | 336 |     | 253 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Oyster Landing  |     |     |     |       |     | 2   |     |     |
| (NOS)           |     |     |     |       |     | .75 |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| South Capers    |     |     |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| Island          |     |     |     |       |     | .74 |     |     |
| (CARO-COOPS)    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Springmaid Pier | 1   | 100 | 1   | 24    | 37  | 2   |     |     |
| (NOS)           | 4/0 | 0.5 | 4/1 |       |     | .81 |     |     |
|                 | 942 |     | 800 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Georgia**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fort Pulaski    |     |     |     |       |     | 1   |     |     |
| (NOS)           |     |     |     |       |     | .87 |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Saint Simons    | 0   | 101 | 0   | 30    |     | 1   |     | 1   |
| Island (KSSI)   | 9/0 | 1.5 | 9/1 |       |     | .44 |     | .69 |
|                 | 900 |     | 546 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Buoy/CMAN**   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41001 | 1   | 101 | 1   | 28^f^ | 37  |     |     |     |
| (34.7N 72.7W)   | 5/2 | 1.5 | 6/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 300 |     | 040 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41002 | 1   | 99  | 1   | 49    | 67  |     |     |     |
| (32.3N 75.4W)   | 0/2 | 8.7 | 1/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 200 |     | 200 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41004 | 1   | 99  | 1   | 45    | 57  |     |     |     |
| (32.5N 79.1W)   | 3/2 | 6.4 | 3/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 250 |     | 030 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41009 | 0   | 100 | 0   | 37    | 47  |     |     |     |
| (28.5N 80.2W)   | 8/1 | 2.3 | 8/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 050 |     | 750 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41010 | 0   | 100 | 0   | 37    | 49  |     |     |     |
| (29.0N 78.5W)   | 9/0 | 0.1 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 820 |     | 350 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41012 | 0   | 100 | 0   | 30    | 43  |     |     |     |
| (30.0N 80.6W)   | 9/1 | 6.2 | 8/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 100 |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41013 | 1   | 98  | 1   | 54    | 68  |     |     |     |
| (33.4N 77.4W)   | 4/1 | 0.8 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 000 |     | 800 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| CARO-COOPS Buoy | 1   | 99  | 1   | 38    | 41  |     |     |     |
| 41024 (33.8N    | 4/1 | 4.9 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| 78.5W)          | 300 |     | 500 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41025 | 1   | 98  | 1   | 55^f^ | 73  |     |     |     |
| (35.0N 75.4W)   | 5/1 | 8.7 | 5/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 500 |     | 707 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| CARO-COOPS Buoy |     |     | 1   | 38    | 45  |     |     |     |
| 41030 (32.5N    |     |     | 3/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| 79.3W)          |     |     | 330 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 41035 | 1   | 98  | 1   | 48^f^ | 62  |     |     |     |
| (34.5N 77.3W)   | 4/2 | 2.0 | 4/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 120 |     | 030 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| CORMP Buoy      |     |     | 142 | 50    | 52  |     |     |     |
| 41038 (34.1N    |     |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
| 77.7W)          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 44004 | 1   | 100 | 1   | 40^f^ | 53  |     |     |     |
| (38.5N 70.6W)   | 7/0 | 1.5 | 7/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 800 |     | 730 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 44008 | 1   | 100 | 1   | 33    | 43  |     |     |     |
| (40.5N 69.4W)   | 7/1 | 1.1 | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 200 |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| NOAA Buoy 44014 |     |     | 1   | 27^f^ | 35  |     |     |     |
| (36.6N 74.8W)   |     |     | 6/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 900 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| GOMOOS Buoy     | 1   | 99  | 1   | 27    | 35  |     |     |     |
| 44024 (42.3N    | 7/2 | 6.9 | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| 65.9W)          | 100 |     | 900 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cape Lookout,   | 1   | 98  | 1   | 65    | 80  |     |     |     |
| NC (CKLN7)      | 5/0 | 1.9 | 4/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 600 |     | 309 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cedar Island,   | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 78  |     |     |     |
| NC (CITN7)      | 5/0 | 8.0 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 840 |     | 838 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Duck, NC        | 1   | 100 | 1   | 34    | 43  |     |     |     |
| (DUCN7)         | 5/0 | 8.5 | 5/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 930 |     | 651 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Frying Pan      | 1   | 98  |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Shoals, NC      | 4/1 | 0.7 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (FPSN7)         | 300 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabsoon Tower   | 1   | 100 | 1   | 38    | 44  |     |     |     |
| R8 (TYBG1)      | 3/2 | 5.4 | 3/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 136 |     | 630 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabsoon Tower   |     |     | 1   | 31    | 35  |     |     |     |
| R2 (SPAG1)      |     |     | 3/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 431 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabsoon Tower   | 1   | 100 | 1   | 35    | 41  |     |     |     |
| M2R6            | 3/1 | 7.2 | 3/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 934 |     | 234 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (SKMG1)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| St. Augustine,  | 0   | 100 | 0   | 34    | 43  |     |     |     |
| FL (SAUF1)      | 9/0 | 8.8 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 905 |     | 105 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Settlement      | 0   | 100 | 0   | 25    | 34  |     |     |     |
| Point, Grand    | 8/2 | 8.5 | 7/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Bahama (SPGF1)  | 300 |     | 630 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Unofficial    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Observations**  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Florida**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Crescent City   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (CREF1)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .02 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Deland (COOP)   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .96 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Hastings ARC    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (HTGF1)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .65 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Orange Springs  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
| (OSPF1)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .59 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Palm Bay (COOP) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .11 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Palm Coast      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (WOGF1)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .95 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Ponce Inlet     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
| (COOP)          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .65 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Scottsmoor      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
| (COOP)          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .95 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| S. Merrit       | 0   | 100 | 0   |       | 34  |     |     |     |
| Island (Weather | 9/2 | 5.3 | 9/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 000 |     | 050 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Starke (SRKF1)  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .16 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Titusville      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
| (COOP)          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **North         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Carolina**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bald Head       |     |     |     |       | 73  |     |     |     |
| Island          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cedar Point     | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 45  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/2 | 7.7 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 330 |     | 730 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Davis           |     |     |     |       | 90  |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Jacksonville    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
| (JEON7)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .79 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Jacksonville    | 1   | 99  | 1   |       | 43  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/2 | 4.8 | 4/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 130 |     | 335 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Kinston (KNNN7) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .59 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Kure Beach La   |     |     |     |       | 68  |     |     | 6   |
| Que Center      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Morehead City   |     |     |     |       | 70  |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Morehead City   |     |     |     |       | 74  |     |     |     |
| (waterfront)    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Morehead City   | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 45  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 5/0 | 6.7 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 530 |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Oak Island      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 17  |
| Brunswick Co    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .50 |
| Water Treatment |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Plant           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Oak Island      | 1   | 99  | 1   |       | 57  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/1 | 0.7 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 530 |     | 815 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| St. James       | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 62  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/1 | 5.7 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 530 |     | 330 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Southport       | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 51  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/1 | 7.0 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 600 |     | 600 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Surf City       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
| Pender Co NC    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tranters Creek  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
| (TRAN7)         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Wallace (WCEN7) |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .28 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Watha (Weather  | 1   | 99  | 1   |       | 43  |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 4/1 | 7.2 | 5/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 818 |     | 358 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Wilmington      | 1   | 98  | 1   |       | 68  |     |     |     |
| (Weather        | 4/1 | 9.4 | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| Underground)    | 821 |     | 845 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Wrightsville    |     |     | 1   |       | 70  |     |     |     |
| Beach           |     |     | 4/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 649 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Georgia**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Woodbine        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .90 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **South         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Carolina**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Charleston      |     |     | 1   | 23    | 34  |     |     | 0   |
|                 |     |     | 3/1 |       |     |     |     | .07 |
|                 |     |     | 938 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Isle of Palms   | 1   | 100 | 1   | 22    | 37  |     |     | 0   |
|                 | 3/2 | 4.5 | 4/0 |       |     |     |     | .18 |
|                 | 330 |     | 230 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Pineville       |     |     | 1   | 19    | 32  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 4/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 102 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ Instrumentation failed

^f^ 10-minute average

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Preliminary forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ophelia, 6-17 September 2005.
Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in
parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in
bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage, but does not
include the extratropical stage, if any.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 39    | 85    | 133   | 163   | 223   | 332   | 462   |
|           | (45)  | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 25    | 42    | 54    | 75    | 157   | 278   | 383   |
|           | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (36)  | (32)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDL^\*^  | 30    | 44    | 59    | 71    | 136   | 252   | 353   |
|           | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (36)  | (32)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 25    | 41    | 64    | 96    | 164   | 278   | 425   |
|           | (42)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (26)  | (22)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDN^\*^  | 29    | 46    | 60    | 89    | 153   | 263   | 396   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (25)  | (22)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FV4       | 30    | 62    | 91    | 128   | 237   | 379   | 561   |
|           | (41)  | (40)  | (39)  | (37)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AF1I      | 38    | 68    | 102   | 150   | 294   |       |       |
|           | (16)  | (16)  | (16)  | (16)  | (16)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AFW1^\*^  | 53    | 80    | 105   | 140   | 256   |       |       |
|           | (8)   | (8)   | (8)   | (8)   | (8)   |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| COAI      | 34    | 57    | 86    | 120   | 191   |       |       |
|           | (43)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| COAL^\*^  | 36    | 59    | 79    | 109   | 177   |       |       |
|           | (21)  | (20)  | (19)  | (18)  | (16)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| COEI      | 32    | 60    | 93    | 130   |       |       |       |
|           | (24)  | (24)  | (24)  | (22)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| COCE^\*^  | 36    | 60    | 89    | 122   |       |       |       |
|           | (12)  | (12)  | (12)  | (11)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ETAI      | 55    | 112   | 168   | 207   | 318   |       |       |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (34)  | (23)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ETA^\*^   | 50    | 106   | 158   | 207   | 292   |       |       |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (36)  | (30)  | (22)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | *     | *     | 55    | 75    | 156   | 278   | 357   |
|           | *20** | *36** | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  | (22)  |
|           | (40)  | (38)  |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSO^\*^  | 23    | *     | 53    | 69    | 133   | 247   | 343   |
|           | (40)  | *34** | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  | (22)  |
|           |       | (38)  |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | 129   | 221   | 271   |
|           | *21** | *35** | *47** | *62** | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMN^\*^  | *     | *     | *     | *     | 104   | 202   | 255   |
|           | *22** | *34** | *44** | *53** | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 24    | 43    | 57    | 74    | 112   | 168   | 275   |
|           | (45)  | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPS^\*^  | 24    | 40    | 54    | 70    | 112   | 167   | 289   |
|           | (44)  | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 25    | 40    | *     | *     | 143   | **    | **    |
|           | (43)  | (41)  | *52** | *60** | (33)  | 129** | 169** |
|           |       |       | (39)  | (37)  |       | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKM^\*^   | 27    | 45    | 50    | 68    | 116   | **    | **    |
|           | (22)  | (21)  | (20)  | (19)  | (17)  | 129** | 120** |
|           |       |       |       |       |       | (15)  | (13)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CMC^\*^   | 33    | 51    | 69    | 78    | 144   | 271   | 522   |
|           | (18)  | (17)  | (16)  | (16)  | (14)  | (6)   | (5)   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CEMN^\*^  | 33    | 44    | 62    | 76    | 122   | 159   | **    |
|           | (10)  | (9)   | (9)   | (8)   | (7)   | (6)   | 127** |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | (4)   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | 27    | 49    | 74    | 110   | 198   | 283   | 362   |
|           | (23)  | (22)  | (21)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMX^\*^   | 24    | 44    | 62    | 89    | 167   | 267   | 354   |
|           | (21)  | (20)  | (19)  | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EEMN^\*^  | 42    | 67    | 92    | 128   | 216   | 283   | 238   |
|           | (10)  | (10)  | (9)   | (9)   | (8)   | (7)   | (4)   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A98E      | 35    | 55    | 91    | 124   | 227   | 404   | 515   |
|           | (44)  | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A9UK      | 34    | 52    | 87    | 134   | 246   |       |       |
|           | (20)  | (20)  | (19)  | (18)  | (16)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 30    | 51    | 78    | 111   | 223   | 433   | 653   |
|           | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 34    | 58    | 85    | 105   | 151   | 257   | 382   |
|           | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 49    | 87    | 117   | 142   | 177   | 270   | 385   |
|           | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | 29    | 58    | 105   | 181   | 450   | 576   | 592   |
|           | (45)  | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (35)  | (24)  | (13)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | 203   |
|           | *19** | *30** | *39** | *48** | *93** | 131** | (25)  |
|           | (44)  | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (33)  | (29)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    |
|           | *18** | *29** | *38** | *47** | *96** | 133** | 180** |
|           | (40)  | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  | (22)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNS      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    |
|           | *20** | *32** | *41** | *49** | *99** | 123** | 181** |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (30)  | (26)  | (22)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | *     | *     | *     | *     | 115   | 180   | 205   |
|           | *18** | *28** | *44** | *62** | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OHPC      | 29    | 43    | 54    | 68    | **    | 157   | 214   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | 101** | (27)  | (23)  |
|           |       |       |       |       | (31)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCI      | 25    | 42    | 60    | 79    | 118   | 165   | 216   |
|           | (43)  | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 23    | 38    | 53    | 68    | 103   | 157   | 200   |
|           | (44)  | (42)  | (40)  | (38)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 42    | 75    | 107   | 138   | 202   | 236   | 310   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (649) | (535) |
|           | 3400) | 3116) | 2848) | 2575) | 2117) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 1995-2004 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

^\*^ Output from these models was unavailable at forecast time.

Number range CHAPTERTable 5. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Ophelia, 6-17 September 2005.

+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| Date/Time    | Action                    | Location                 |
| (UTC)        |                           |                          |
+==============+===========================+==========================+
| 6 / 1500     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Florida east coast from  |
|              | issued                    | Jupiter to Titusville    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 6 / 1500     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Grand Bahama, Abaco and  |
|              | issued                    | Bimini Islands           |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 7 / 0300     | Tropical Storm Watch      | Florida east coast from  |
|              | issued                    | Titusville to Flagler    |
|              |                           | Beach                    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 7 / 0900     | Tropical Storm Watch      | Florida east coast from  |
|              | extended northward        | Flagler Beach to         |
|              |                           | Fernandina Beach         |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 7 / 0900     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Florida east coast from  |
|              | issued                    | Sebastian Inlet to       |
|              |                           | Flagler Beach            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 7 / 0900     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Florida east coast from  |
|              | discontinued              | Jupiter to Sebastian     |
|              |                           | Inlet and the Bahamas    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 7 / 2100     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa |
|              | discontinued              | Beach                    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 8 / 2100     | Tropical Storm Warning    | Cocoa Beach to Sebastian |
|              | extended                  | Inlet                    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 9 / 1500     | All watches and warnings  | Florida east coast       |
|              | discontinued              |                          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 10 / 1500    | Hurricane Watch issued    | Savannah River, South    |
|              |                           | Carolina to Cape         |
|              |                           | Lookout, North Carolina  |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 11 / 0900    | Hurricane Watch           | South Carolina coast     |
|              |                           | from Savannah River to   |
|              | discontinued              | Edisto Beach             |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 11 / 2100    | Tropical Storm Warning    | South Santee River,      |
|              | issued                    | South Carolina to Cape   |
|              |                           | Lookout, North Carolina  |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 12 / 0900    | Tropical Storm Warning    | South Carolina coast     |
|              | extended                  | from South Santee River  |
|              |                           | to Edisto Beach          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 0300    | Hurricane Warning issued  | South Santee River,      |
|              |                           | South Carolina to Cape   |
|              |                           | Lookout, North Carolina  |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Warning    | North Carolina coast     |
|              | issued                    | from Cape Lookout to     |
|              |                           | Oregon Inlet including   |
|              |                           | Pamlico Sound            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 0900    | Hurricane Watch issued    | North Carolina coast     |
|              |                           | from Cape Lookout to     |
|              |                           | Oregon Inlet including   |
|              |                           | Pamlico Sound            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 2100    | Hurricane Warning issued  | North Carolina coast     |
|              |                           | from Cape Lookout to     |
|              |                           | Cape Hatteras            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 2100    | Hurricane Watch and       | North Carolina coast     |
|              | Tropical Storm Warning    | from Oregon Inlet to     |
|              | issued                    | NC/VA border             |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 2100    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Virginia coast from the  |
|              | issued                    | NC/VA border to Cape     |
|              |                           | Charles Light            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 13 / 2200    | Hurricane Warning         | North Carolina coast     |
|              | extended                  | from Cape Hatteras to    |
|              |                           | Oregon Inlet including   |
|              |                           | Pamlico Sound            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 1500    | Hurricane Warning issued  | Oregon Inlet to NC/VA    |
|              |                           | border including         |
|              |                           | Albemarle Sound          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 1500    | Hurricane Watch and       | Virginia coast from the  |
|              | Tropical Storm Warning    | NC/VA border to Cape     |
|              | issued                    | Charles Light including  |
|              |                           | lower Chesapeake Bay     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 1500    | Hurricane Warning         | South Carolina coast     |
|              | discontinued              | from South Santee River  |
|              |                           | to Little River          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 1500    | Tropical Storm Warning    | South Carolina coast     |
|              | discontinued              | south of South Santee    |
|              |                           | River                    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 1500    | Hurricane Watch           | South Carolina coast     |
|              | discontinued              | from Edisto Beach to     |
|              |                           | Little River Inlet       |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 14 / 2100    | Tropical Storm Warning    | South Carolina coast     |
|              | discontinued              |                          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 0300    | Hurricane Warning changed | North Carolina coast     |
|              | to Tropical Storm Warning | from Cape Fear to Surf   |
|              |                           | City                     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 0300    | Hurricane Warning         | South of Cape Fear,      |
|              | discontinued              | North Carolina           |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 0900    | Hurricane Watch           | Virginia coast from the  |
|              | discontinued              | NC/VA border to Cape     |
|              |                           | Charles Light including  |
|              |                           | lower Chesapeake Bay     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 0900    | Tropical Storm Warning    | North Carolina coast     |
|              | discontinued              | from Cape Fear to Surf   |
|              |                           | City                     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 2100    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Massachuestts coast from |
|              | issued                    | Woods Hole to Plymouth   |
|              |                           | including Martha's       |
|              |                           | Vineyard and Nantucket   |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 15 / 2100    | Hurricane warning changed | Cape Lookout to Cape     |
|              | to Tropical Storm Warning | Charles Light            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Plymouth, Massacuusetts  |
|              | extended                  | to Point Judith, Rhode   |
|              |                           | Island                   |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Virginia coast from the  |
|              | discontinued              | NC/VA Border to Cape     |
|              |                           | Charles Light including  |
|              |                           | lower Chesapeake Bay     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 0900    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | issued                    | Yarmouth to Lunenburg    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 1500    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Watch Hill, Rhode Island |
|              | issued                    | to Plymouth,             |
|              |                           | Massachuestts            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 1500    | All warnings discontinued | North Carolina coast     |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 16 / 2100    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | issued                    | Yarmouth to Halifax      |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | issued                    | Yarmouth to Lunenberg    |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | extended                  | Yarmouth to Truno        |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | extended                  | Lunenberg to Street      |
|              |                           | Harbour                  |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 0300    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Watch Hill, Rhode Island |
|              | discontinued              | to Westport,             |
|              |                           | Massachusetts            |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 0900    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Massachusetts coast from |
|              | discontinued              | Westport to Woods Hole   |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 1200    | Tropical Storm Warning    | Nova Scotia except       |
|              | issued                    | Cumberland and           |
|              |                           | Colchester               |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 1200    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Prince Edward Island     |
|              | issued                    |                          |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 1200    | Tropical Storm Watch      | Nova Scotia from         |
|              | issued                    | Cumberland to Colchester |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| 17 / 1500    | All warnings discontinued | Massachusetts coast      |
+--------------+---------------------------+--------------------------+

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.751388888888889in"
height="5.9847222222222225in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane
Ophelia, 6 -- 17 September 2005. Track during the extratropical stage is
based on analyses from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.338888888888889in"
height="5.098611111111111in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Ophelia, 6-17
September 2005. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation
using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb,
850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include
actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the
mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Objective Dvorak estimates represent
averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation
time. Estimates during the extratropical stage are based on analyses
from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="8.198611111111111in"
height="5.696527777777778in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Ophelia, 6-17
September 2005. Objective Dvorak estimates represent averages over a
three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time. Estimates
during the extratropical stage are based on analyses from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

[^1]: Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the
    four-year period 2001-4.