Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/2/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** SF6028

SF6028

**South Africa, Republic of**

Grain and Feed

**Monthly Update**

2006

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Rachel Bickford

#### U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Herman Germishuis

**Report Highlights:**

After a 44% voluntary cutback in area planted in 2005, commercial corn
production declined by 48% balancing supply and demand and supporting
prices. The high prices are likely to bolster 2006 plantings again and
at this stage it is expected that commercial farmers will increase the
area planted from 1.6 to 2.6 million hectares. This could see the total
crop increase from 6.4 to 9.8 million tons again. In the meantime
supplies will stay tight.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Pretoria \[SF1\]

\[SF\]

###### SUMMARY {#summary-1}

In an effort to balance corn supply and demand South African commercial
farmers cut the area planted to corn from 2.8 million hectares (ha.) in
2004 to 1.6 million ha. in 2005. As a result the commercial crop still
being harvested is expected to decline from 11.45 million tons to 6
million tons. After a slow start to the 2005/06-rainfall season,
precipitation improved from mid December followed by heavy sustained
rains. As a result of water logging and the overcast weather the average
yield is expected to decline to 3.9 mt/ha. while quality also suffered

Due to a carry over of about 3.2 million tons at the end of April 2006
the commercial crop should be sufficient to supply the local need of
about 8 million tons. The problem is that the market is divided between
white corn mainly for human consumption and yellow corn mainly for
animal feed. White corn stocks are under pressure to supply domestic and
traditional export needs, the situation being aggravated by the quality
problem. White corn that comply with South Africa's GMO requirements are
not freely available on the world market. Yellow corn is being imported
to make up the feed corn shortfall. The net result is that domestic
prices for August 2006 have increased to about \$189/MT for white and
\$172/MT for yellow corn.

Bio Fuels, including Ethanol from corn is a big issue at the moment but
it is unlikely that additional areas will be planted for this purpose in
2006. It could, however, become a major additional outlet in the future.

The wheat situation is unchanged, with a small decrease in the area
planted and continued high import levels.

Please note the volatile exchange rate.

US\$1 = Rand 6.55 (05/30/06)

US\$1 = Rand 7.25 (06/28/06)

US\$1 = Rand 7.00 (07/27/06)

# 

[**www.sagis.org.za**](http://www.sagis.org.za/)

[**www.grainsa.co.za**](http://www.grainsa.co.za/)

[**www.safex.co.za**](http://www.safex.co.za/)

[**www.fews.net**](http://www.fews.net/)

[**www.wfp.org**](http://www.wfp.org/)

####### **CORN**

  ------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- ----------
  PSD Table                                                              

  Country             South                                              
                      Africa                                             

  Commodity           Corn                                               

  1000 HA             2004      Revised   2005      Estimate   2006      Forecast

  1000 MT             USDA      Post      USDA      Post       USDA      Post
                      \[Old\]   \[New\]   \[Old\]   \[New\]    \[Old\]   \[New\]

  Market Year Begin             05/2005             05/2006              05/2007

  Area Harvested      3223      3224      2000      2000       2750      3000

  Beginning Stocks    2956      2935      3190      3170       1490      750

  Production          11716     11715     7000      6360       9000      9750

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      361       360       750       750        400       300
  Imports                                                                

  Oct-Sep Imports     131       140       650       470        700       700

  Oct-Sep Import U.S. 0         4         0         0          0         0

  TOTAL SUPPLY        15033     15010     10940     10280      10890     10800

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      2143      2140      750       750        600       950
  Exports                                                                

  Oct-Sep Exports     1517      2600      1400      1200       500       500

  Feed Dom.           5000      5000      4100      4100       4100      4100
  Consumption                                                            

  TOTAL Dom.          9700      9700      8700      8780       8800      8800
  Consumption                                                            

  Ending Stocks       3190      3170      1490      750        1490      1050

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  15033     15010     10940     10280      10890     10800
  ------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- ----------

# Production

The sixth official production estimate for the commercial corn crop
planted in 2005 was released on July 20, 2006. The crop estimate is
still about 6 million tons, 47% less than the 2004 crop, but 46,000 tons
better than the previous estimate. The commercial area planted is
estimated at 1.57 million hectares, 44% smaller than the previous
season, and with the crop at 6 million tons the average yield is 3.9
tons/hectare. The following table contains the details.

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
<col style="width: 10%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>CORN</td>
<td><p>2004 area</p>
<p>000ha</p></td>
<td><p>Yield</p>
<p>MT/ha</p></td>
<td><p>Prod.</p>
<p>’000 MT</p></td>
<td><p>2005 area</p>
<p>000ha</p></td>
<td><p>Yield</p>
<p>MT/ha</p></td>
<td><p>Prod.</p>
<p>’000 MT</p></td>
<td><p>2006</p>
<p>Area</p>
<p>000ha</p></td>
<td><p>Yield</p>
<p>MT/ha</p></td>
<td><p>Prod.</p>
<p>‘000</p>
<p>MT</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Com.</td>
<td></td>
<td>Final</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>Est.</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>Fore.</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>White</td>
<td>1,700</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>6,540</td>
<td>985</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>3,635</td>
<td>1,650</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>5,800</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Yellow</td>
<td>1,110</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4,910</td>
<td>582</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>2,409</td>
<td>950</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3,700</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total</td>
<td>2,810</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>11450</td>
<td>1,567</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>6,044</td>
<td>2,600</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>9,500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Deve.</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>White</td>
<td>325</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>203</td>
<td>346</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>325</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>200</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Yellow</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total</td>
<td>414</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>266</td>
<td>432</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>317</td>
<td>400</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>250</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>White</td>
<td>2,025</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>6,743</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3,873</td>
<td>1,975</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>6,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Yellow</td>
<td>1,199</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4,973</td>
<td>668</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>2,488</td>
<td>1,025</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>3,750</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TOTAL</td>
<td>3,224</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>11716</td>
<td>1,999</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>6,361</td>
<td>3,000</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>9,750</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The total 2005 crop is now estimated at 6.4 million metric tons from 2
million hectares compared to the 11.7 million ton from 3.2 million
hectares in 2004. After a late start to the 2005/06-rainfall season
precipitation picked up in December and the late summer rainfall was
good. Sunlight was limited by the overcast weather and the average yield
did not reach 2004 levels. In a related development the grading of the
crop suffered, usually 95% of the crop reach first grade but this year
about 25% of the crop could be second grade or lower. This is crucial
for white corn, already short, as lower grades are not suitable for
milling for human consumption and are used for feed.

Responding to a number of requests from the market and confirmation from
silo owners of the tonnages of Grade 2 (wm2) white corn currently being
received, the SAFEX exchange has decided to re-introduce the WOPT
(white, optional) contract last traded in 2003.

The WOPT contract is defined as "white corn of any origin, of the grade
wm2 as defined in the South African grading regulations, that meets all
phyto-sanitary requirements and import regulations, but is not subject
to the containment conditions for the importation of genetically
modified organisms." Translated, it means that the GMO import
requirements must still be complied with.

The WOPT contract will adhere to the same contract specifications as the
WMAZ (white maize) contract with delivery in the same fashion. It must
be noted that the WOPT contract is totally separate to the WMAZ contract
and no grade 2 white corn will be accepted for delivery on the WMAZ
contract. The WOPT contract currently runs at about a 10% discount to
the WMAZ contract and at about the same price as the YMAZ contract.

The exchange introduced an Aug 06, Sep 06 and Dec 06 expiry for trading
on Wednesday 12 July 2006 to be followed by the relevant Oct 06 and Nov
06 constant month contracts.

## FAS 2006

##  

We also forecast the 2006 season - this is the crop to be planted from
November 2006. We have to consider the possible after effects of the
2005 cutback in area planted. The current high prices are likely to
restore some of the area to corn while we can only use recent average
trend yields at this stage. The commercial area to be planted is
forecast at 2.6 million ha. producing about 9.5 million tons, the total
area is likely to reach 3.0 million ha. producing a total of 9.75
million tons. This is under the assumption of a "normal" season and does
not include additional plantings for bio fuel production, which is not
expected to be on stream by 2007. Building of the first major ethanol
plant has started.

# Consumption

We used to include commercial silo deliveries for March and April 2005
in our delivery figure as, depending on the season, the new crop became
available from March each year. With more on farm storage available, the
distinction between crop years disappeared and we reverted to the
official May/April marketing season. The final 2005/06 supply and
distribution data is available and a rounded commercial PS&D, based on
SAGIS information, is supplied to highlight the situation.

  ------------ --------- ----------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
               FAS 2003  MY2004/05   Final     FAS 2004  MY2005/06   Final

  1,000 MT     White     Yellow      Total     White     Yellow      Total

  B/stocks     2125      500         2625      2400      745         3145

  Deliveries   5645      3445        9090      6110      3945        10055

  Imports      0         220         220       0         360         360

  Supply       7770      4165        11935     8510      5050        13560

  Exports\*    670       60          730       1785      355         2140

  Cons.                                                              

  Human        3480      260         3740      3560      260         3820

  Feed         735       2695        3430      545       2985        3530

  Other        485       405         890       320       580         900

  Total        4700      3360        8060      4425      3825        8250

  E/stocks     2400      745         3145      2300      870         3170
  ------------ --------- ----------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------

We can also supply a MY 2006/07 scenario based on the latest official
crop estimate. Deliveries from May 1, 2006 to July 28 amounted to about
3.8 million tons, 2.4 white and 1.4 yellow, implying that a 5.5 million
ton delivery figure is possible. The following table contains the
delivery details:

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  Deliveries              '000 MT                 \%

  May 1-July 28                                   

  WM1                     1462                    67.4

  WM2                     584                     26.9

  WM3                     123                     5.7

  Unknown                 249                     

  Total white             2418                    

  YM1                     1110                    89.0

  YM2                     132                     10.6

  YM3                     5                       0.4

  Unknown                 146                     

  Total Yellow            1393                    

  Total corn                                      

  Grade 1                 2572                    75.3

  Grade 2                 716                     21.0

  Grade 3                 128                     3.7

  Total                   3416                    

  Unknown                 395                     

  Total corn              3811                    
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

The higher price levels are likely to suppress domestic and regional
demand. Yellow corn supplies are tight but the shortfall is being met by
imports from Argentina. From May 2005 to April 2006, 360,000 tons were
imported and unloaded in the ports of Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, East
London and Durban. From May 2006 to July 28 about 360,000 tons have
already been imported, while exports only reached 185,000 tons.

The following table contains the details:

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  FAS 2005 forecast MY May 06/April   Commercial S&D    '000 MT
                    07                                  

  1,000 MT          White             Yellow            Total

  B/Stocks          2300              870               3170

  Crop estimate     3635              2410              6045

  Farm retentions   135               330               465

  Expected          3500              2080              5580
  Deliveries                                            

  Imports           0                 750               750

  Supply            5800              3700              9500

  Exports           700               50                750

  Consumption       4500              3500              8000

  E/Stock           600               150               750
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

# Trade

Final data for the May 05/April 06 marketing season is available. Whole
grain exports jumped from 732,000 MT. in 2004/05 to 2.14 million tons in
2005/06 mainly due to early overseas sales of yellow corn to Indonesia,
Iran and Japan. The main increase for white corn was the more than a
million tons sold to Zimbabwe after only 206,000 tons were sold in
2004/05. Product exports amounted to 100,000 tons in 2004/05 and 103,000
tons in 2005/06.

Customs Union sales (basically domestic sales) are a prime, natural
market for the South African industry averaging about 400,000 tons,
340,000 tons white and 60,000 tons yellow per season. This market will
have to be serviced in 2006/07. Mozambique (100,000 MT.) and Zimbabwe
(600,000 MT.) are the other potential markets. Early estimates show a
demand for more than a million tons of mainly white corn in the
immediate vicinity, which will be difficult to supply from South Africa
this year.

As the region experienced a fairly good 2005/06 production season
supplies are adequate and exports slow. Exports will, however, pick up
when local supplies run out. Exports from May 2006 to July 28, 2006
follow.

+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| MY 2006/07  | May         | June        | July        | Total from  |
|             |             |             |             | May 1, 2006 |
| Exports     |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| White corn  |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Angola      | 989         | 1936        | 817         | 3742        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Botswana    | 11931       | 4294        | 2889        | 19114       |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| DRC         | 136         | 144         | 0           | 280         |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Kenya       | 2792        | 0           | 0           | 2792        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Lesotho     | 10255       | 8149        | 10324       | 28728       |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Malawi      | 30          | 0           | 0           | 30          |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Mozambique  | 2014        | 741         | 1270        | 4025        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Namibia     | 3687        | 114         | 99          | 3900        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Swaziland   | 4174        | 1289        | 33          | 5496        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Tanzania    | 0           | 9289        | 0           | 9289        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Zimbabwe    | 36,879      | 24022       | 26397       | 87298       |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Total       | 72,887      | 49,978      | 41,829      | 164,694     |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
|             |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Yellow corn |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Botswana    | 758         | 1091        | 281         | 2130        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Lesotho     | 195         | 0           | 0           | 195         |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Mozambique  | 616         | 264         | 0           | 880         |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Namibia     | 1855        | 1309        | 2012        | 5176        |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Swaziland   | 2898        | 5058        | 3586        | 11542       |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Zimbabwe    | 264         | 0           | 0           | 264         |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Total       | 6,586       | 7,722       | 5,879       | 20,187      |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Grand Total | 79,473      | 57,700      | 47,708      | 184,881     |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| IMPORTS     |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Yellow corn |             |             |             |             |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Argentina   | 143,046     | 56,018      | 162,134     | 361,198     |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+

#### Prices

The main reason for the production cutback this year was the low SAFEX
prices after harvest in 2005. In June 2005 both white and yellow corn
prices for August, October and December were well below \$100/ton, or
R600/ton at the then exchange rate. This was due to the usual post
harvest price slump and the crop estimate at that stage implying a big
surplus. Farmers claimed that the \$100/ton was below their cost of
production and decided to cut back the area planted in 2005. This had a
major effect on SAFEX prices. SAFEX is a volatile market with the March
06 white corn price nearly doubling from June to December 2005 and the
yellow corn price increasing by 50%. In July 2006 white corn reached a
thirty-month high.

The following table shows current SAFEX futures prices.

+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Rand/MT   | ##          |             |             |             |
|           | ### US\$/MT |             |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| White     | September   | ###         | May 06      | July 06     |
| corn      | 06          | December 06 |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 03/29/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | R1          |
|           | 183=\$189.3 | 212=\$193.9 | 152=\$184.3 | 164=\$186.2 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 05/03/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | R1          |
|           | 104=\$182.5 | 132=\$187.1 | 071=\$177.0 | 088=\$179.8 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 05/30/06  | R1          | R1          | ###         | R1          |
|           | 225=\$187.0 | 262=\$192.7 | ## March 07 | 207=\$184.3 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 06/28/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | #####       |
|           | 361=\$187.7 | 396=\$192.6 | 406=\$193.9 |  August 06  |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 07/27/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | ##### R1    |
|           | 341=\$191.6 | 377=\$196.7 | 385=\$197.9 | 325=\$189.3 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
|           |             |             |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| WOPT      | September   | December 06 |             | August 06   |
|           | 06          |             |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 07/27/06  | R1          | R1          |             | R1          |
|           | 213=\$173.3 | 255=\$179.3 |             | 194=\$170.6 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
|           |             |             |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Yellow    | September   | ###         | May 06      | July 06     |
| corn      | 06          | December 06 |             |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 03/29/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | R1          |
|           | 045=\$167.2 | 072=\$171.5 | 030=\$164.8 | 029=\$164.6 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 05/03/06  | R1          | R1          | R           | R1015=167.8 |
|           | 036=\$171.2 | 054=\$174.2 | 998=\$165.0 |             |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 05/30/06  | R1          | R1          | ###         | R1          |
|           | 151=\$175.7 | 177=\$179.7 | ## March 07 | 129=\$172.4 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 06/28/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | ####        |
|           | 240=\$171.0 | 248=\$172.1 | 265=\$174.5 | # August 06 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 07/27/06  | R1          | R1          | R1          | ##### R1    |
|           | 226=\$175.1 | 238=\$176.9 | 255=\$179.3 | 207=\$172.4 |
+-----------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+

**WHEAT**

  ------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- ----------
  PSD Table                                                              

  Country             South                                              
                      Africa                                             

  Commodity           Wheat                                              

  1000 HA             2004      Revised   2005      Estimate   2006      Forecast

  1000 MT             USDA      Post      USDA      Post       USDA      Post
                      \[Old\]   \[New\]   \[Old\]   \[New\]    \[Old\]   \[New\]

  Market Year Begin             10/2004             10/2005              10/2006

  Area Harvested      830       830       800       805        820       792

  Beginning Stocks    598       598       560       594        646       600

  Production          1680      1680      1886      1905       1910      1850

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      1396      1395      1300      1200       1200      1200
  Imports                                                                

  Jul-Jun Imports     1407      1350      1300      850        1200      1100

  Jul-Jun Import U.S. 270       265       0         250        0         0

  TOTAL SUPPLY        3674      3673      3746      3699       3756      3650

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr.      324       325       300       325        350       325
  Exports                                                                

  Jul-Jun Exports     338       350       300       325        350       320

  Feed Dom.           10        9         10        39         10        15
  Consumption                                                            

  TOTAL Dom.          2790      2754      2800      2774       2850      2800
  Consumption                                                            

  Ending Stocks       560       594       646       600        556       525

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  3674      3673      3746      3699       3756      3650
  ------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- ----------

**Production**

The preliminary estimate of the area planted to wheat in 2006 is 792,300
ha. compared to the 805,000 ha. planted in 2005, this is 12,700 ha. or
1.6% . less than in 2005. The main producing areas are the Free State
with 375,000 ha. followed by the Western Cape with 290,000 ha. The
decrease is mainly blamed on low wheat prices, as agronomic conditions
were favorable. If favorable conditions continue the crop is likely to
reach 1.85 million tons, again well short of domestic demand.

The 2005/06 crop estimate was adjusted to 1.905 million tons of which
deliveries are expected to reach 1.87 million tons and 37,700 tons is
expected to be retained on farms.

**Consumption**

Milling for flour increased by 3.1% from 2.653 million tons in 2003/04
to

2.736 million tons in 2004/05. From October 2005 to June 2006 milling
amounted to 2.05 million tons, 1.6% more than in the corresponding
months in 2004/05. Growth is slow and barely keeps pace with the
increase in population.

**Trade**

In MY 2004/05 South Africa exported 158,000 tons of South African wheat
(135,000 tons) and flour (23,000 tons wheat equivalent) and 168,000 tons
of imported wheat for a total of 326,000 tons. In 2004/05 imports for
own use amounted to 1.227 million tons and 168,000 tons for re-export to
total 1.395 million tons. Imports and exports for the current season
from October 2005 to July 28, 2006 follow:

  ------------ ----------- ------------ ----------- ----------- -----------
  Exports      MT          Imports      For Africa  For South   Total
                                                    Africa      

  Botswana     61,219      USA          25,982      88,651      114,633

  Lesotho      58,845      Australia    0           59,927      59,927

  Namibia      15,250      Argentina    28,035      311,570     339,605

  Swaziland    25,756      Germany      67,868      300,091     367,959

  Zambia       53,118      Ukraine      0           60,754      60,754

  Zimbabwe     1,575       Brazil       6,301       0           6,301

                           Canada       12,759      36,753      49,512

                           France       0           9,920       9,920

  Total        215,763     Total        140,945     867,666     1,008,611
  ------------ ----------- ------------ ----------- ----------- -----------

Apparently export supplies from Argentina have dried up and Germany has
taken up the slack.

**Prices**

Current SAFEX futures market prices are:

  -------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  Rand/MT \$/MT  March 07        August 06       September 06    December 06

  07/27/2006     R1586=\$226.6   R1675=\$239.3   R1665=\$237.9   R1538=\$219.7

  06/28/2006     R1520=\$209.7                   R1630=\$224.8   R1551=\$213.9
  -------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------