Meeting Minutes for the

Weather Applications Group Workshop

February 23-24, 2004

The February 23-24, 2004 Weather Applications Group Workshop was held at
the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) facilities in Kansas City, MO.
Briefings, handouts, and papers are available as separate files to the
minutes at the CDM Weather Applications Workgroup (WAWG) web site @
<http://www.metronaviation.com/cdm/Workgroups/weather.html>.

Attendees:

+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| # | #      | **     | ***Organ   | ***P    | ***email***           |
| # | ###### | *First | ization*** | hone*** |                       |
| # |  *Last | N      |            |         |                       |
| # |  Name* | ame*** |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
| * |        |        |            |         |                       |
| \ |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| * |        |        |            |         |                       |
+===+========+========+============+=========+=======================+
| 1 | Baker  | Don    | AWC/CCFP   | 816-5   | [d                    |
| . |        |        |            | 84-7208 | onald.baker@noaa.gov] |
|   |        |        |            |         | (mailto:Bgb@ucar.edu) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Brown  | B      | NCAR/RAP   | 303-4   | <Bgb@ucar.edu>        |
| . |        | arbara |            | 97-8468 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 3 | Ca     | Mike   | NWS/AWC    | 816-5   | M                     |
| . | mpbell |        |            | 84-7203 | ike.campbell@noaa.gov |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 4 | Ernst  | Gary   | ZKC CWSU   | 913-2   | Gary.ernst@noaa.gov   |
| . |        |        |            | 54-8455 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 5 | Evans  | Jim    | MIT/LL     | 781-9   | <Jime@ll.mit.edu>     |
| . |        |        |            | 81-7433 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 6 | Fahey  | Tom    | NWA        | 612.7   | [Tom.fahey@nwa.com](  |
| . |        |        |            | 26.3256 | ../Tom.fahey@nwa.com) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 7 | Golib  | Mike   | Volpe      | 617.4   | goli                  |
| . | ersuch |        |            | 94.2443 | bersuch@volpe.dot.gov |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 8 | Helms  | Tom    | Avemet     | 703.3   | helms@avmet.com       |
| . |        |        |            | 51.5649 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 9 | Hub    | Mark   | Mitre /    | 703.8   | <mwhuber@mitre.org>   |
| . | erdeau |        | CAASD      | 33.5906 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | J      | Fred   | NWS/AWC    | 816-5   | Fred.johnson@noaa.gov |
| 0 | ohnson |        |            | 84-7204 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Ka     | Sadegh | Avemet     | 703-3   | kavoussi@avmet.com    |
| 1 | voussi |        |            | 51-5646 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Kohn   | Eli    | Avemet     | 504-5   | kohn@avmet.com        |
| 2 |        | zabeth |            | 23-2279 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Lan    | Joanne | NAV Canada | 613.5   | <                     |
| 3 | caster |        |            | 63.5607 | lancajo@navcanada.ca> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | Je     | AOPA/FSL   | 303-4   | <                     |
| 4 | ahoney | nnifer |            | 97-6514 | Mahoney@fsl.noaa.gov> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Meyer  | Darin  | MIT        | 407.8   | <darinm@ll.mit.edu>   |
| 5 |        |        | Lincoln    | 55.3593 |                       |
| . |        |        | Lab        |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Mullen | Ken    | TAC2       | 202-3   | <k                    |
| 6 |        |        |            | 14-1412 | en.mullen@auatac.com> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | S      | CNAC       | 703-3   | <Munchaks@can.org>    |
| 7 | unchak | tephen |            | 26-3806 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Rod    | Dave   | ATT-260    | 703.9   | <dav                  |
| 8 | enhuis |        |            | 25.3120 | id.rodenhuis@faa.gov> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Rovito | Dino   | ARS-100    | 202-3   | Dino.rovito@faa.gov   |
| 9 |        |        |            | 85-7718 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Sims   | Danny  | ATO-R      | 202-3   | danny.sims@faa.gov    |
| 0 |        |        |            | 85-8932 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Szkil  | M      | NWS/OS23   | 301-7   | M                     |
| 1 |        | ichael |            | 13-1726 | ichael.szkil@noaa.gov |
| . |        |        |            | x144    |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | W      | C      | NWS/AWC    | 816-5   | Cli                   |
| 2 | allace | linton |            | 84-7248 | nton.wallace@noaa.gov |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | We     | Steve  | NOAA/FSL   | 303-4   | Step                  |
| 3 | ygandt |        |            | 97-5529 | hen.weygandt@noaa.gov |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Wise   | R      | ATCSCC WX  | 703.9   | richard.wise@faa.gov  |
| 4 |        | ichard |            | 04.4455 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+

**Agenda:**

**#13 CDM Weather Applications Work Group (WAWG)**

**Host location: Aviation Weather Center (AWC)**

**National Weather Service**

**Kansas City, MO**

**816-584-7200**

**TELCON BRIDGE: 877-696-8056**

**Passcode: 329813**

**Objectives for the meeting:**

-   To complete User Needs for CCFP-2004

-   To maintain awareness on other weather topics that relate to
    forecasting of convection.

**References:**

-   *Statement of User Needs*, CCFP-2003. V5.6, 27 FEB 03, CDM-WAWG, 31
    pp.

-   *Discussion Papers* #1-13, WAWG Meeting #11, 8 DEC 03, CNAC,
    Alexandria, VA

-   *List of ACTION Items* from WAWG#11, and WAWG#12 Telcon.

.

**List of scheduled presentations:**

-   Cindy Mueller, NCAR: NCWF (3-6 hour forecasts)

-   Tom Fahey, NWA: Aviation Weather Observations

-   Rick Wise, ATCSCC: Intuitive Graphics

-   Stan Benjamin, NOAA/FSL: RUC forecasting for CFP

-   Elizabeth Kohn, AvMet: CCFP Utility Study (WIT analysis)

-   Steve Munchak/Airspace Lab/CNAC: End of Season (03) Report

-   Fred Johnson, AWC: Results of Convective Workshop (10, 11 FEB 04)
    and Probabilistic Forecasting: Evaluation of Previous CCFP Seasons

-   Tom Fahey, NWA: Convective Workshop TELCON (11 FEB 04)

-   Jennifer Mahoney, NOAA/FSL: Route Impacts

-   Mark Huberdeau, MITRE: Transcon Options, V2.0

-   Jim Evans, MIT/Lincoln Labs: Route Impacts/Benefits of CIWS
    Forecasts

**List of Discussion Papers**:

#13-1: Transcon Options, V2.0, Mark Huberdeau

#13-2: CCFP Utility Study, Elizabeth Kohn

#13-3: End of Season Report, Steve Munchak

#13-4: CCFP Schedule - ATCSCC Requirements, S.Munchak & D.Rodenhuis

#13-5: More Intuitive Graphics-Simplest Options, Rick Wise

#13-6: End of Season Report (CCFP-03), Steve Munchak.

**AGENDA**

**1PM Opening of the Meeting, Monday, 23 FEB 04**

a.  Welcome from the host (AWC)

b.  Administrative information (dinner, transportation to the airport,
    etc)

c.  Cochairs: Strategy for reaching agreement on CCFP-04 user needs
    (T.Fahey, D.Rodenhuis)

d.  Agreement on the Agenda

e.  Review of the minutes and Action Items \[Ken Mullen\]

**1:30PM CCFP-2004: User Needs**

a.  Overview of *Statement of User Needs - CCFP-03*

    -   End Product: a revised and updated *Statement of User
        Needs-CCFP04*

b.  **The Forecast (section 2)**

    -   Schedule: 10 X/day, or less?

    -   Start/Stop dates: 1 MAR, 05Z / 31 OCT, 21Z

    -   Format changes for FY04?: AWC

    -   Minimum threshold: affirm?

    -   **Coverage**: definition of convection?

    -   **Tops**: define; forecast categories; verification?

    -   **Confidence**: categories?

    -   Textbox: recommendation?

c.  **The Collaboration (section 3)**

    -   NAVCanada and MSC plans?

    -   Chatroom efficiency issues

        -   Timeliness? Responsiveness?

        -   Double-up proposal

d.  **The Applications (section** 4)

    -   Lessons Learned: status and plans

        -   DiscPaper #2 (8DEC)

    -   Concept of Use:

        -   DiscPaper #3

    -   Best Practices: goals

e.  **Training (section 5)**

    -   AOPA education (ACTION Item #2, 9 Jan)

    -   Training module: Status - Scott Fox, ATT-240

    -   Training Plans (FY04) - Scott Fox, ATT-240

    -   Training Plans (2005-07) ?

f.  **Forecast Verification and Assessment (section 6)**

    -   Verification of skill (accuracy, precision, consistency): the
        *success metric* for forecasting (section 2)

        -   Daily verification data

        -   Definition of convection (confirm)

        -   Monthly and seasonal reports

        -   Verification of forecast TOPS? (ACTION Item #16, 8 DEC)

        -   Status: object-oriented verification.

    -   Forecast procedures

        -   Status: AWC, MSC, CWSUs

    -   Route Impact Assessment

        -   ICE-FM WG and Conops (ACTION Item#14, 8DEC)

        -   Traffic Impacted Areas (ACTION Item #17, 8DEC)

        -   Route Impacts - J.Mahoney

        -   Transcon Options - Mark Huberdeau, MITRE

        -   Route Impacts/Benefits - J.Evans, MIT/Lincoln Labs

        -   CCFP Utility Study - Elizabeth Kohn, AvMet

    -   Reanalysis

        -   Status: Airspace Lab; NOAA/FSL

    -   Collaboration Effectiveness

        -   Workshop Telcon and feedback

    -   Evaluation of utility (capacity): the *success metric* for
        applications (section 4)

        -   (needs more work)

g.  **Operational Evaluation and Feedback (section 7)**

    -   Operational Feedback Reports

    -   Assessment of collaboration: the *success metric* for
        collaboration (section 3)

        -   Monitoring; monthly and seasonal reports (AvMet)

    -   Post-analysis

        -   The WIT Analysis - Elizabeth Kohn, AvMet

    -   Seasonal Evaluation

**6:00 PM Adjourn for the day**

**8:00 AM Opening of the Meeting, Tuesday, 24 FEB 04**

a.  **Listing of *Parking Lot Issues* from yesterday**

b.  **Outyears (section 8)**

    -   The Future of the Collaborative Forecast Process (CFP)

        -   NWS: the Integrated Weather Forecast Process (IWFP)

    -   More Intuitive Graphics

        -   Priority forecast parameters (ACTION Item #4, 8DEC - TFahey
            and DaveR)

        -   Discussion Paper #5 - Rick Wise

        -   Prototyping Testbed in 2004? (ACTION Item #5; 8DEC)

    -   Probabilistic Forecasting

        -   Fred Johnson, AWC

    -   Extended Range Forecasting for the CFP

        -   RUC Model progress (Stan Benjamin)

        -   NCWF-3to6 (Cindy Mueller)

    -   CCFP backup requirements?

c.  **Discussion of Parking Lot Issues**

d.  **Logistics and Communications**

    -   Integrated schedule; ACTION Item #16 (12/08/03; \_\_\_\_)

        -   Next TELCON: Thursday, 25 MARCH 04; 1PM EST

        ```{=html}
        <!-- -->
        ```
        -   Next Meeting: 17-18 MAY; host: NAVCanada, Ottawa

        -   Summer Meeting: 16, 17 AUG; host: MIT/Lincoln Labs,
            Washington, DC (to be confirmed)

    ```{=html}
    <!-- -->
    ```
    -   Funding Report: D.Sims (System Operations; Programs)

    -   Where do we go from here? (Cochairs)

**12:30 PM Lunch and Adjournment**

## **List of Discussion Papers (V1,3; 9Jan03)**

**WAWG Meeting #11, 8 December 2003**

**CNAC, Alexandria, VA**

1.  CCFP -- 2003 Season Fred Johnson NWS/AWC

2.  Lessons Learned -- CCFP 2003 Dave Rodenhuis FAA/ATCSCC,

3.  Strategic Planning CONOPS Steve Munchak CNAC

4.  CCFP for the 2004 Season Tom Fahey Northwest AL

5.  Modifications to CCFP Graphics Rick Wise ATCSCC/WxUnit

6.  Definition of Intense Convection Jennifer Mahoney NOAA/FSL

> (Convective Constrained Areas)

7.  Training on CCFP Carol Catron ATCSCC/ATT-240

> (Training Branch)

8.  Weather Products to Support Dynamic

> Adjustment to the Strategic Plan Jim Evans MIT/Lincoln Labs

9.  Reinventing CDM-WAWG Jim Evans MIT/Lincoln Labs

10. Turbulence Forecasting (see earlier

Discussion Papers #2 and #3;

June Meeting @ Crystal City) Joanne Lancaster NAVCanada

11. (Revisions to) Extended Range Forecasting (ERF)

> Mark Huberdeau MITRE

12. Tactical Convection Hazard Product (1 hr)

> Rick Heuwinkel FAA/ARS-100

13. Transcon Options Mark Huberdeau MITRE

**Day 1 Meeting Notes:**

**Opening of the Meeting:**

Mike Campbell, NWS/AWC the host for this meeting welcomed the WAWG
participants and provided administrative information.

Group introductions were conducted and Dave Rodenhuis reviewed the
agenda and goals for this meeting. The primary goal is to review and
complete the 2004 update of the CCFP User Need Document.

Ken Mullen reviewed and updated the open WAWG action items from past
meetings and telcons. The updated action item list is available on the
WAWG web site at
<http://www.metronaviation.com/cdm/Workgroups/weather.html> . The file
will also be distributed as an attachment with these meeting minutes.

Action Item: Confirm the information in the slides provided for
training.

Note: Action Closed-Training slides confirmed and approved before
meeting close on day 2.

**Review of 2004 CCFP User Needs document sections:**

**The CCFP Forecast (section 2):**

The proposed CCFP forecast schedule was reviewed/discussed. The proposed
schedule change would take effect May 1, 2004. The schedule change as
proposed allows more time for the day shift to evaluate weather and
produce forecasts. AWC said it hopes additional analysis time will
improve the forecast.

The proposed schedule:

![](media/image1.wmf){width="5.99375in" height="3.525in"}

Changes include:

-   Drops the overnight forecast (03Z & 07Z)

-   No 15Z & 17Z forecast, but includes a 16Z forecast

Issues:

-   Ensure forecast production times are in-line with available weather
    data to ensure consistency of the product. AWC was asked to confirm
    the availability of sounding models and possible impact on CCFP
    consistency.

-   Concern was expressed that workload is driving the schedule change
    versus meteorology. Some CWSUs have the perception that telcon
    limitations are based on availability of certain weather models.

-   The WAWG needs to confirm what the proposed schedule changes are
    based on. The ATCSCC may also have misconceptions about the
    availability of upper air soundings and RUC model impact (lack of
    impact) on the CCFP production schedule.

-   Potential impact to AWC of a mid-season change to the production
    schedule. AWC reported that they can accommodate the change with
    proper lead-times.

-   Need to confirm the proposed change does not create an issue for
    ETMS.

Action Item: AWC will send out a clarification on models, soundings,
timing and accuracy.

Action Item: Check on the impact to ETMS (and displays-CCSD, WSD, TSD)
from the changes proposed for CCFP/SPT production/telcon schedules and
format changes.

**CCFP Production Start/Stop dates:** 1 MAR 05Z to 31 OCT, 21Z

**Web Site Format Changes for FY04 from AWC:**

-   New IP addresses

-   AWC products and CCFP are still available at the old IP address

-   Background color change

-   Location of one valid time moved

-   Legend moved to bottom-left side

Issue:

AWC web site and ETMS display will have the legends in different
locations. This will need to be addresses in training.

Action Item: Link the FAA CCFP Training presentation to the AWC CCFP web
page. The final copy of the Training package will need to be forwarded
to AWC when its completed.

**Minimum threshold:**

A telcon is scheduled for day 2. On telcon we will discuss proposed
change in Flight Levels (FLs) and the impact of RVSM.

AWC was asked to verify the level of resolution for echo tops that can
be forecasts.

Action Item: AWC to investigate to what resolution they can
differentiate 'maximum' tops. A study/paper is requested on this
subject.

Proposed change (section 2.3) of ***Maximum Cloud Tops*** to ***Echo
Tops*** and define as 18dbz. Also re-defined altitude ranges by FLs.

Added "in knots" to speed of movement bullet (section 2.5)

Industry has proposed that ***Low*** (40% and below) ***Confidence***
category be eliminated (section 2.6). WAWG discussed the pros and cons
of elimination of the ***Low*** threshold. After much discussion,
decided to keep all 3 categories and define ***LOW*** as 25-39% versus
0-40%. This issue will be revisited in 2005 with intuitive graphics.

Deleted the ***Text Box*** paragraph (section 2.7) because no agreement
could be reached on its usage.

Changed ***Reliability*** to ***Consistency*** (section 2.8).

**Collaboration (section 3):**

NavCanada has cost issues and will not participate in CCFP production in
March and October 2004 (minimal convection in those months). CCFP
expansion has been moved to 2006.

Action Item: Canada not participating in March and October CCFP
production. WAWG, NavCanada and AWC will monitor lack of Meteorological
Service of Canada (MSC) participation and provide feedback on the
impact.

Chatroom efficiency issues:

Timeliness- AWC will address internally.

Responsiveness- Hard on bad WX days. The current technology is part of
the problem. An easier way to acknowledge chat input is needed.
Discussed adding words to "acknowledge chat" to section 3.1. Discussed
other collaborative tools and the use of graphic tools to aid
collaboration.

Action Item: Develop a way to stream-line automation between AWC and
Collaborators (specifically to acknowledge chat room input). Also
intermediate step was to include in the CCFP User Needs Document update
the requirement in 3.1 for AWC to acknowledge chat without defining a
specific mechanism.

Action Item: Clinton Wallace will look at software solutions for
enhanced Collaboration.

**Applications (section** 4):

Dave Rodenhuis discussed to contents of the Lessons Learned paper (see
DiscPaper #2 (8DEC)).

Steve Munchak discussed the Strategic Planning Concept of Use paper (see
DiscPaper #3) he has been working on. He will continue to develop this
paper in 2004.

Future reports and items for consideration:

-   Report on the use of CCFP in 2003

-   21Z

-   Tactical

-   Supplemental products

-   Bingo points

-   ICE-FM work

Changed the date to 2003 in section 4.1.

Discussed NATCA withdraw from CDM and the need for TMU participation in
the WAWG.

**Training (section 5):**

Training Plans for FY04: CWSUs to conduct CCFP training. The WAWG will
provide the training information to the training department for the CCFP
training module. A plastic reference card is being produced to be
distributed before the end of the season. Training materials need to be
distributed to the rest of the airlines. The updated CCFP training will
be linked to the AWC web page.

Recommendation: CCFP be added to supplementary products in the AIM.

Action Item: Determine what steps are needed to get the CCFP included in
Ops Products/Airman\'s Information Manual (AIM).

Parking lot: AWC proposal that CCFP be included in supplementary
products.

**Forecast Verification and Assessment (section 6):**

Verification of Skill: No issues with the first 3 items in this section
(Daily verification data, Definition of convection, Monthly and seasonal
reports). Verification of forecast TOPS- Verification of Tops already
discussed and resolved (action item 16 from December).

Barbara Brown, NCAR reported on Object Oriented Verification. The basic
concept has been developed. Additional work is proposed for this year.

Route Impact Assessment:

ICE-FM WG and Conops (ACTION Item#14, 8DEC). Tom Fahey, NWA reported
that coordination with ICE-FM is on-going. CDM Leadership put the ConOps
for the Transcon Option (Bingo Point) and integration of other reroute
tools on hold. The ConOps subgroup will be latent until CDM Leadership
provides direction.

Route Impacts -- Jennifer Mahoney, FSL is working to define the area of
impact around weather. She has decided on 10km radius as the area. She
said it has been difficult to determine how the area should be defined.
This work needs input from others and it needs to be funded. WAWG
Co-Leads will take this to CDM Leadership at the March meeting.

CCFP Utility Study - Elizabeth Kohn, AvMet presented a briefing on the
CCFP Utility study (see presentation for details of the findings). A
detailed report is available on the web site and can be "exploded" to
interested participants.

**End of Day 1**

**Day 2 Meeting Notes:**

**Operational Evaluation and Feedback (section 7):** moved to parking
lot.

**Pre-Telcon Discussions and Items Discussed on the Telcon:**

Note: Much of the telcon discussion was used to report/discuss day 1 of
the meeting. To avoid restating all the activities discussed on day 1,
notes in this section only include additional items, clarifications,
issues, or actions from the telcon.

Reviewed the CCFP user need changes from Day 1.

Feedback from the airlines is needed on the proposed CCFP forecast
schedule. WAWG conditionally recommends accepting the changes.

Conditions:

-   ETMS can accommodate the proposed changes in 2004

-   Clarification that the noon forecast is not necessary for the models
    but provides the best product for the users.

-   Compare the schedules to confirm that the AWC and ATCSCC (blue dot
    chart) schedule changes are in agreement (need to compare charts).

Telcon participants had no issues with the proposed changes to the User
Needs document or the proposed CCFP forecast schedule change.

CCFP Ops Product/AIM changes to include CCFP in the Ops process (in WAWG
Parking lot).

-   Flight standard will need to be involved

-   Concern about misuse of the product

-   Sadegh Kavoussi and Fred Johnson to work this issue with the ATCSCC
    and report back to the WAWG (previous discussion generated Action
    Item #9 from this meeting)

Added the requirement for AWC to "acknowledge chat' in section 3.1.
However, the specific mechanism to do this will not be included.
Recommended including words to ensure/promote 2 way acknowledgements. A
check box was suggested as a way to acknowledge input, but the mechanism
will be left up to AWC as they investigate solutions (this generated a
previous action on day 1).

Action Item: WAWG coordinate with the ICE-FM group on OpsConcept
development prior to the March 2-4 CDM meeting.

A paper has been requested on the resolution that the AWC can forecast
Echo Tops.

Clarification is needed in the CCFP User Needs document to use AGL for
radar information versus sea level.

Operational concern expressed about the lack of wx information across
the Canadian boarder.

Action Item (from Telcon):

Send the updated CCFP User Need Document to all CWSUs.

It was recommended that the MIS be used to relay concern to the ATCSCC
for below threshold weather when CCFP criteria is not met.

Action Item (from Telcon):

AWC send an email to CWSUs on the use of the MIS for convective issues
(especially when CCFP criteria is not met)

Discussed the ***Low confidence*** category changes and longer-term plan
to change the graphic format to be intuitive.

Action Item (from Telcon):

Distribute CCFP graphic format change recommendations for review that
will be presented to the CDM for acceptance. Mike Szkil, NWS to sent to
CWSUs, Tom Fahey, NWA will sent to airlines.

Telcon Comments:

-   TMOs are un-happy with the size of the yellow areas- they would
    prefer to handle these forecasts tactically

-   Airlines expressed the same concern, yellow areas are not "no fly
    zones"

-   Optimistic that intuitive graphic will solve this problem for next
    season

-   For 2004, continue to teach that "yellow" polygons do not represent
    blocked airspace

-   Message to AWC-keep the forecast areas precise

End Telcon

**CCFP Intuitive Graphics:**

Richard Wise, ATCSCC presented the proposed CCFP graphic options.
Discussed the pros/cons of the options presented.

Issues/comments/suggestions:

-   Display of Tops to be determined after evaluation.

-   Med/High Coverage not usually associated with low confidence (little
    chance of an open red).

-   Option A may encourage forecasters to not follow definitions in the
    User Need document.

-   Just show Max Tops.

-   Solid yellow not used in option B.

-   Option A, suggested using a dotted line for open areas versus the
    solid line.

-   HF impact needs to be considered-CCFP polygons may be confused with
    FCAs (may need to avoid solid lines and open polygons).

Action Item: Rickard Wise coordinate with Phil Smith on the Human
Factors issues that need to be addressed for the display of
probabilistic weather and how it interacts with other items (FCA,
Reroutes, WX, Sector Alerts, ...) already on TFM display (TSD/CCSD/WSD).
Ken Mullen to explode new options to WAWG.

CDM Leadership needs to be briefed on these concept/ideas. The HF
evaluation needs to proceed.

Action Item: Distribute CCFP graphic format change recommendations for
review that will be presented to the CDM for acceptance. Mike Szkil, NWS
to send to CWSUs, Tom Fahey, NWA will send to airlines.

**Probabilistic CCFP Format:**

Clinton Wallace, AWC provided a briefing on probabilistic CCFP format.
The major challenge is translating weather forecast information into
statements about capacity. Many WAWG members expressed interest in being
involved in this development. The WAWG will continue to explore this
topic at the May meeting.

Action Item: Probabilistic CCFP: Develop a discussion paper for the next
meeting (in May) on trial attempt of converting old CCFP forecasts into
probabilistic forecast. Use historic CCFP to assess the potential of
probabilistic CCFP. Also include an assessment of probabilistic
forecasting capability.

Action Item: Include Probabilistic CCFP format on the May agenda.

**CWIS:**

Jim Evans, MIT/LL presented this briefing (see slides for details). Jim
reviewed weather impact mitigation and 2003 benefits. Jim noted that
delay and benefits varied wildly for similar events. CWIS decay function
was used to solicit and launch Pathfinder flights.

Action Items: Jim Evans will send out a briefing (from Roger Beatty)
that he has a copy of, which relates routing flexibility to forecast
lead time.

**The Future of the Collaborative Forecast Process:**

Steve Weygandt, FSL provided a briefing on model-based probability
forecasts for convective weather (see presentation for details).

Forecasting reality forces a move to probabilistic products. 0-2 hr
forecasts Radar extrapolations, 0-6 hr model ensembles. Model gridpoint
ensemble- Noted that RUC info will make products better. Adjustable
parameters include characteristic distance and precipitation threshold.
Gridpoint ensemble weakness, its constrained to a single run.
Preliminary RUC Probabilistic Convective Forecast-started spring 2003.
Includes 3, 5, 7 hr forecasts every 2 hours. Stats available for
July/August. AWC will be evaluating summer 2004. Discussed the possible
use of cloud tops to improve the product. Looking for feedback to help
with settings, usage, and challenges.

Dave said its time to put these new products to use. Dave recommended
coordinating with the User Needs Document, securing resources, and going
on record in support or this work.

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  ***WAWG Statement for Record: The WAWG supports this work and eventual
  incorporation of probabilistic forecasts**.*

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

**Convective Weather Forecasting:**

Cindy Mueller presented this briefing (see presentation for details).
The first step is converting NCWF to a probabilistic forecast. Proposed
NCWF on CCFP forecaster workstation. The future is in 0-6 hr
probabilistic products!

**Funding:**

Danny Sims, ATO-R (AUA-700) provided this update. ATO-R is acting as the
program office and working CCFP funding. Requirements/needs are being
assessed. Resources and hardware needs are being scoped to determine
funding needs for 2005. Contact Danny with any questions.

**Where do we go from here?:**

WAWG Co-chairs Dave Rodenhuis and Tom Fahey lead this discussion.

-   Ops Concept to include the integration of short-term and long-term
    forecasts

-   Probabilistic in the future

-   Meeting schedule will be updated and distributed

-   Integrated schedule is being worked

-   A March telcon will be set up

-   May 18-19 meeting will be in Ottawa, Canada

-   Get Passports for the Canada trip

-   August 17-18 meeting in DC area

Issues:

-   Legal review of CDM process

-   Funding

**Action Item:** Develop and post May meeting agenda after the next
telcon.

**Parking Lot:**

Turbulence Forecasting (Added 12/8/03)

AWC proposal that CCFP be included in supplementary products (Added
2/23/04)

Review of Operational Evaluation and Feedback (section 7) (Added
2/24/2004)

**End of Day 2**

**Post Meeting Update:**

After the WAWG meeting the 2004 User Needs document was edited too
reflect the agreed to changes. The document was then reviewed and
updated based on comment/feedback. Additionally, the proposal for the
production change was not implemented. The final 2004 User Needs
document final revision was distributed for production on April 15, 2004
(v7.3).

**Action Item Summary List from the February 23-24, 2004 Meeting:
Updated 4/20/2004**

  ----- ----------- ------------------------ -------------- --------- -------------------
        ** **       ** Workshop \@AWC,       ** **          ** **     ** **
                    February 23-24, 2004**                            

  1     2/23/2004   Confirm the information  Darin          Closed    Reviewed and closed
                    in the slides provided   Meyer,MITLL/   3/25/04   at meeting
                    for training.            Jennifer                 
                                             Mahoney,FSL              

  2     2/23/2004   Link the FAA CCFP        Clinton                  3/25/04 -On-going
                    Training presentation to Wallace, AWC             AWC will forward an
                    the AWC CCFP web page.                            Email to close when
                    The final copy of the                             completed.
                    Training package will                             
                    need to be forwarded to                           
                    AWC when it's completed.                          

  3     2/23/2004   AWC will send out a      Fred Johnson   Closed    OBE
                    clarification on models, and Clinton    3/25/04   
                    soundings, timing and    Wallace of AWC           
                    accuracy                                          

  4     2/23/2004   AWC to investigate to    Fred                     3/25/04-On-going,
                    what resolution they can Johnson,AWC/             paper will be
                    differentiate 'maximum'  Jennifer                 presented at the
                    tops. A study/paper is   Mahoney, FSL/            May meeting.
                    requested on this        Darin Meyer,             
                    subject.                 MITLL                    

  5     2/23/2004   Check on the impact to   Mike           Closed    OBE
                    ETMS (and displays-CCSD, Golibersuch,   3/25/04   
                    WSD, TSD) from the       Volpe                    
                    changes proposed for                              
                    CCFP/SPT                                          
                    production/telcon                                 
                    schedules and format                              
                    changes.                                          

  6     2/23/2004   Develop a way to         Clinton                  3/25/04 On-going,
                    stream-line automation   Wallace, AWC             update will be
                    between AWC and                                   provided at the May
                    Collaborators                                     meeting.
                    (specifically to                                  
                    acknowledge chat room                             
                    input). Also                                      
                    intermediate step was to                          
                    include in the CCFP User                          
                    Needs Document update                             
                    the requirement in 3.1                            
                    for AWC to acknowledge                            
                    chat without defining a                           
                    specific mechanism.                               

  7     2/23/2004   Clinton Wallace will     Clinton                  3/25/04 On-going,
                    look at software         Wallace, AWC             Solutions and
                    solutions for enhanced                            security issues
                    Collaboration.                                    being investigated.

  8     2/23/2004   Canada not participating ATCSCC and               3/25/04 On-going
                    in March and October     NavCanada                ATCSCC & User
                    CCFP production. WAWG,                            feedback. A) Duane
                    NavCanada and AWC will                            Torbert to prepare
                    monitor lack of                                   report for May
                    Meteorological Service                            meeting on any
                    of Canada (MSC)                                   issues they find
                    participation and                                 from a subjective
                    provide feedback on the                           investigation. B)
                    impact.                                           NavCanada will
                                                                      provide an update
                                                                      on the
                                                                      Hazard/Safety
                                                                      Analysis.

  9     2/24/2004   Determine what step are  Sadegh                   3/25/04 Ongoing,
                    needed to get the CCFP   Kavoussi,                Sadegh will provide
                    included in Ops          AvMet                    an update at the
                    Products/Airman\'s                                May meeting. Summer
                    Information Manual                                is the cut-off for
                    (AIM).                                            changes to the 05
                                                                      AIM. Removed Fred
                                                                      Johnson as an
                                                                      actionee.

  10    2/24/2004   WAWG coordinate with the Danny Sims,              3/25/04 Danny Sims
                    ICE-FM group on          FAA, Mark                will coordinate
                    OpsConcept development   Huberdeau,               with the ICE-FM
                    prior to the March 2-4   Mitre, and               group when they
                    CDM meeting.             WAWG leads               meet again in
                                                                      April. WAWG will
                                                                      put the OpsConcept
                                                                      in the Parking lot
                                                                      waiting
                                                                      clarification from
                                                                      CDM group.

  11    2/24/2004   Send the updated CCFP    Mike Szkil,              3/25/04 Open, will
                    User Need Document to    NWS                      be sent when User
                    all CWSUs                                         Needs is completed.

  12    2/24/2004   AWC send an email to     Clinton        Closed    3/25/04 Closed, was
                    CWSUs on the use of the  Wallace, AWC   3/26/04   briefed by Mike
                    MIS for convective                                Szkil in telcon
                    issues (especially when                           with CWSUs (Fred
                    CCFP criteria is not                              will ask Mike for a
                    met)                                              formal
                                                                      response).3/30/04
                                                                      formal response was
                                                                      received and this
                                                                      action retired.

  13    2/24/2004   Distribute CCFP graphic  Mike Szkil,    Closed    Closed
                    format change            NWS/ Tom       3/25/04   
                    recommendations for      Fahey, NWA               
                    review that will be                               
                    presented to the CDM for                          
                    acceptance. Mike Szkil,                           
                    NWS to send to CWSUs,                             
                    Tom Fahey, NWA will send                          
                    to airlines.                                      

  14    2/24/2004   Probabilistic CCFP:      AWC/ FSL/                3/25/04 Final draft
                    Develop a discussion     Embry-Riddle             is in process. Will
                    paper for the next                                be briefed at the
                    meeting (in May) on                               May meeting.
                    trial attempt of                                  
                    converting old CCFP                               
                    forecasts into                                    
                    probabilistic forecast.                           
                    Use historic CCFP to                              
                    assess the potential of                           
                    probabilistic CCFP. Also                          
                    include an assessment of                          
                    probabilistic                                     
                    forecasting capability.                           

  15    2/24/2004   Include Probabilistic    WAWG Leads     Closed    Closed
                    CCFP format on the May                  3/25/04   
                    agenda.                                           

  16    2/24/2004   Rickard Wise coordinate  Richard        Closed    3/25/04
                    with Phil Smith on the   Wise,FAA/ Phil 3/25/04   Coordination
                    Human Factors issues     Smith,OSU                completed,
                    that need to be                                   discussed and
                    addressed for the                                 closed on 3/25/04
                    display of probabilistic                          telcon.
                    weather and how it                                
                    interacts with other                              
                    items (FCA, Reroutes,                             
                    WX, Sector Alerts, ...)                           
                    already on TFM display                            
                    (TSD/CCSD/WSD). Ken                               
                    Mullen to explode new                             
                    options to WAWG.                                  

  17    2/24/2004   Jim Evans will send out  Jim Evans,     Closed    3/31/04 Closed-Jim
                    a briefing (from Roger   MITLL          3/31/04   Evans distributed
                    Beatty) that he has a                             referenced paper
                    copy of, which relates                            from Roger
                    routing flexibility to                            Beatty.3/25/04
                    forecast lead time.                               Darin will
                                                                      follow-up and send
                                                                      out on 3/29/04.

  18    2/24/2004   Develop and post May     WAWG Leads               3/25/04 will be
                    meeting agenda after the                          distributed by
                    next telcon.                                      4/8/04.
  ----- ----------- ------------------------ -------------- --------- -------------------