Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 07/01/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** TW4024

TW4024

**Taiwan**

**Oilseeds and Products**

**July 2004 Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Scott Sindelar

American Institute in Taiwan

**Prepared by:**

Chiou-Mey Perng & Eric Trachtenberg

**Report Highlights:**

The Taiwan soybean import estimate for 2003/04 is revised down two
percent to 2.25 million metric tons. The market share for U.S. soybeans
is also expected to fall to 60 percent, 10 percentage points lower than
in 2002/03. The expected decreases in both soybean imports and U.S.
market share will likely be a result of high prices caused by tight U.S.
supplies.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Taipei \[TW1\]

\[TW\]

**Soybean Imports Down...**

The Taiwan soybean import estimate for 2003/04 is revised down to 2.25
million metric tons, a two percent decrease from the previous estimate.
The United States is expected to take a 60 percent share of total
soybean imports, down from 70 percent in 2002/03. The decreases in both
soybean imports and U.S. market share will likely be a result of high
prices caused by tight U.S. supplies.

According to industry sources, Taiwan imports from April to September
2004 will be almost completely supplied by South America because the
price difference between U.S. and other origins is at a record high of
\$50 to \$60 per ton. This spread far exceeds the premium of \$10 per
metric ton that most Taiwan importers are willing to pay for U.S.
soybeans. The forecast modest recovery in U.S. soybean exports in
2004/05 is based on an assumption of slightly lower soybean prices and a
smaller price gap between U.S. and other suppliers.

...Meal and Oil Imports Up

Overall demand for oilseed meal and oil are not expected to change
during the forecast period. As a result, soybean meal and oil imports
will likely increase to partially replace falling soybean imports and a
Taiwan crush that is estimated to fall seven percent from 2002/03.
Consequently, soybean meal imports are estimated at 70,000 metric tons.
This up by more than 4-fold from 17,000 metric tons in 2002/03. Import
estimates for non-soybean meals under HS2306 are also expected to total
230,000 tons, a 40,000-ton increase from the earlier estimate.

The soybean meal and oil consumption estimates for 2003/04 are revised
downward by 1 and 4 percent, respectively. While soy oil imports are
expected to remain at around 450,000 tons, palm oil imports are expected
to fill the void left by the reduced local soybean crush. This
substitution will be particularly pronounced in the HRI sector where
soybean and palm oil are competitors.

The dynamic in the HRI sector should not markedly affect household oil
consumption where imported sunflower and canola oil are expected to
continue competing strongly with soybean oil. Although sunflower oil
consumption will likely continue to increase because of a successful
promotion program by the National Sunflower Association, it is not
expected to increase faster because of falling soybean oil availability.

**Soybean Trade Update**

Taiwan Customs arrival statistics for October 2003-March 2004 showed
soybean imports running at a higher pace than a year earlier. This trend
is expected to reverse direction starting in April 2004.

# Arrival Statistics for October 2003/March 2004

  -------------------- ------------ ------------ --------- --------------
  **Imports            2003/2004    2002/2003    Change    U.S. share
  (arrival)**                                              

  **Soybeans**         1,226 tmt    1,204 tmt    +2%       91%

  **Soy oil**          16 tmt       18 tmt       -11%      less than 1%

  **Soy meal**         57 tmt       15 tmt       +280%     10%
  -------------------- ------------ ------------ --------- --------------

Source: Taiwan Customs

**Table 1 -- Total Soybean Production, Supply and Demand**

+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **PSD     |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| Table**   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **        | **T     |         |        |        |        |        |
| Country** | aiwan** |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **Co      | **O     |         |        |        | (1000  |        |
| mmodity** | ilseed, |         |        |        | HA     |        |
|           | So      |         |        |        | )(1000 |        |
|           | ybean** |         |        |        | MT)    |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|           | 2002    | #       | 2003   | ####   | 2004   | ####   |
|           |         | ######  |        | ### Es |        | ### Fo |
|           |         | Revised |        | timate |        | recast |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|           | USDA    | **Post  | USDA   | **Post | USDA   | **Post |
|           | O       | E       | Of     | Es     | Of     | Es     |
|           | fficial | stimate | ficial | timate | ficial | timate |
|           | \[Old\] | \[      | \      | \[N    | \      | \[N    |
|           |         | New\]** | [Old\] | ew\]** | [Old\] | ew\]** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Market    |         | **10    |        | **10/  |        | **10/  |
| Year      |         | /2002** |        | 2003** |        | 2004** |
| Begin     |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Area      | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| Planted   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Area      | 3       | **0**   | 3      | **0**  | 3      | **0**  |
| Harvested |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Beginning | 220     | **220** | 165    | *      | 110    | *      |
| Stocks    |         |         |        | *165** |        | *160** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| P         | 6       | **0**   | 6      | **0**  | 6      | **0**  |
| roduction |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| MY        | 2351    | *       | 2200   | **     | 2375   | **     |
| Imports   |         | *2351** |        | 2250** |        | 2310** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| MY Imp.   | 1655    | *       | 1400   | **     | 1675   | **     |
| from U.S. |         | *1655** |        | 1350** |        | 1700** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| MY Imp.   | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| from the  |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| EC        |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| TOTAL     | 2577    | *       | 2371   | **     | 2491   | **     |
| SUPPLY    |         | *2571** |        | 2415** |        | 2470** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| MY        | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| Exports   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| MY Exp.   | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| to the EC |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Crush     | 2151    | *       | 2000   | **     | 2110   | **     |
| Dom.      |         | *2151** |        | 2000** |        | 2050** |
| Co        |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| nsumption |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Food Use  | 261     | **255** | 261    | *      | 261    | *      |
| Dom.      |         |         |        | *255** |        | *255** |
| Consump.  |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Feed,S    | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| eed,Waste |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| Dm.Cn.    |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| TOTAL     | 2412    | *       | 2261   | **     | 2371   | **     |
| Dom.      |         | *2406** |        | 2255** |        | 2305** |
| Co        |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| nsumption |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Ending    | 165     | **165** | 110    | *      | 120    | *      |
| Stocks    |         |         |        | *160** |        | *165** |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| TOTAL     | 2577    | *       | 2371   | **     | 2491   | **     |
| DIS       |         | *2571** |        | 2415** |        | 2470** |
| TRIBUTION |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Calendar  | 2500    | *       | 2200   | **     | 0      | **     |
| Year      |         | *2543** |        | 2200** |        | 2300** |
| Imports   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Calendar  | 2100    | *       | 1900   | **     | 0      | **     |
| Yr Imp.   |         | *2201** |        | 1600** |        | 1700** |
| U.S.      |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Calendar  | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| Year      |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| Exports   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Calndr Yr | 0       | **0**   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  |
| Exp. to   |         |         |        |        |        |        |
| U.S.      |         |         |        |        |        |        |
+-----------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+

**Table 2 -- Total Soybean Meal Production, Supply and Demand**

  --------------- ------------ -------------- ---------- ------------- -------------- --------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                       

  **Country**     **Taiwan**                                                          

  **Commodity**   **Meal,                                              (1000          
                  Soybean**                                            MT)(PERCENT)   

                  2002         Revised        2003       Estimate      2004           Forecast

                  USDA         **Post         USDA       **Post        USDA Official  **Post
                  Official     Estimate       Official   Estimate      \[Old\]        Estimate
                  \[Old\]      \[New\]**      \[Old\]    \[New\]**                    \[New\]**

  Market Year                  **10/2002**               **10/2003**                  **10/2004**
  Begin                                                                               

  Crush           2151         **2151**       2000       **2000**      2110           **2050**

  Extr. Rate,     0.785681     **0.785681**   0.7855     **0.785**     0.78436        **0.785366**
  999.9999                                                                            

  Beginning       81           **81**         98         **98**        79             **88**
  Stocks                                                                              

  Production      1690         **1690**       1571       **1570**      1655           **1610**

  MY Imports      17           **17**         75         **70**        40             **20**

  MY Imp. from    0            **0**          5          **0**         5              **0**
  U.S.                                                                                

  MY Imp. from    0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  the EC                                                                              

  TOTAL SUPPLY    1788         **1788**       1744       **1738**      1774           **1718**

  MY Exports      0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**

  MY Exp. to the  0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  EC                                                                                  

  Industrial Dom. 0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  Consum                                                                              

  Food Use Dom.   0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  Consump.                                                                            

  Feed Waste Dom. 1690         **1690**       1665       **1650**      1680           **1640**
  Consum                                                                              

  TOTAL Dom.      1690         **1690**       1665       **1650**      1680           **1640**
  Consumption                                                                         

  Ending Stocks   98           **98**         79         **88**        94             **78**

  TOTAL           1788         **1788**       1744       **1738**      1774           **1718**
  DISTRIBUTION                                                                        

  Calendar Year   17           **17**         20         **70**        0              **20**
  Imports                                                                             

  Calendar Yr     9            **9**          12         **10**        0              **10**
  Imp. U.S.                                                                           

  Calendar Year   0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  Exports                                                                             

  Calndr Yr Exp.  0            **0**          0          **0**         0              **0**
  to U.S.                                                                             
  --------------- ------------ -------------- ---------- ------------- -------------- --------------

## Table 3 -- Total Soybean Oil Production, Supply and Demand

+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| **PSD      |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| Table**    |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| *          | **Ta   |        |        |        |         |         |
| *Country** | iwan** |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| **C        | **Oil, |        |        |        | (1000   |         |
| ommodity** | Soy    |        |        |        | MT)(P   |         |
|            | bean** |        |        |        | ERCENT) |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
|            | 2002   | **Rev  | 2003   | ###    | 2004    | #       |
|            |        | ised** |        | ### Es |         | ##### F |
|            |        |        |        | timate |         | orecast |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
|            | USDA   | **Post | USDA   | **Post | USDA    | **Post  |
|            | Of     | Es     | Of     | Es     | O       | E       |
|            | ficial | timate | ficial | timate | fficial | stimate |
|            | \      | \[N    | \      | \[N    | \[Old\] | \[      |
|            | [Old\] | ew\]** | [Old\] | ew\]** |         | New\]** |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Market     |        | **10/  |        | **10/  |         | **10    |
| Year Begin |        | 2002** |        | 2003** |         | /2004** |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Crush      | 2151   | **     | 2000   | **     | 2110    | *       |
|            |        | 2151** |        | 2000** |         | *2050** |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Extr.      | 0      | **0.1  | 0.1685 | **0    | 0       | **0.1   |
| Rate,      | .16504 | 6504** |        | .165** | .168246 | 65854** |
| 999.9999   |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Beginning  | > 98   | **98** | 65     | **65** | 41      | **50**  |
| Stocks     |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Production | 355    | *      | 337    | *      | 355     | **340** |
|            |        | *355** |        | *330** |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| MY Imports | 39     | **39** | 50     | **50** | 65      | **60**  |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| MY Imp.    | 10     | **10** | 1      | **10** | 10      | **10**  |
| from U.S.  |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| MY Imp.    | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  | 0       | **0**   |
| from the   |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| EC         |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| TOTAL      | 492    | *      | 452    | *      | 461     | **450** |
| SUPPLY     |        | *492** |        | *445** |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| MY Exports | 2      | **2**  | 1      | **0**  | 1       | **1**   |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| MY Exp. to | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  | 0       | **0**   |
| the EC     |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Industrial | 15     | **15** | 15     | **15** | 15      | **15**  |
| Dom.       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| Consum     |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Food Use   | 410    | *      | 395    | *      | 403     | **385** |
| Dom.       |        | *410** |        | *380** |         |         |
| Consump.   |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Feed Waste | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  | 0       | **0**   |
| Dom.       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| Consum     |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| TOTAL Dom. | 425    | *      | 410    | *      | 418     | **400** |
| C          |        | *425** |        | *395** |         |         |
| onsumption |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Ending     | 65     | **65** | 41     | **50** | 42      | **49**  |
| Stocks     |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| TOTAL      | 492    | *      | 452    | *      | 461     | **450** |
| DI         |        | *492** |        | *445** |         |         |
| STRIBUTION |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Calendar   | 32     | **37** | 50     | **50** | 0       | **60**  |
| Year       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| Imports    |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Calendar   | 12     | **11** | 15     | **10** | 0       | **20**  |
| Yr Imp.    |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| U.S.       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Calendar   | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  | 0       | **0**   |
| Year       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| Exports    |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+
| Calndr Yr  | 0      | **0**  | 0      | **0**  | 0       | **0**   |
| Exp. to    |        |        |        |        |         |         |
| U.S.       |        |        |        |        |         |         |
+------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+---------+