Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/31/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** ID5018

ID5018

**Indonesia**

**Poultry and Products**

**Annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Fred Kessel

U.S. Embassy, Indonesia

**Prepared by:**

Chris Rittgers/Fahwani Y.Rangkuti

**Report Highlights:**

Broiler production in 2006 is forecast to grow moderately to 672,000
tons, 5 percent above production in 2005. Avian influenza (AI) and
rising input costs, particularly fuel, are expected to hinder potential
for more rapid growth in 2006. The 2005 production estimate has been
reduced due to a temporary drop in demand that occurred when three human
AI-related deaths were reported.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Jakarta \[ID1\]

\[ID\]

Table of Contents

[SECTION I -- SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 3](#section-i-situation-and-outlook)

[Production 3](#production)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Trade 4](#trade)

[Policy 4](#policy)

[Additional information 5](#additional-information)

[SECTION II -- STASTICAL INFORMATION AND TABLES
6](#section-ii-stastical-information-and-tables)

[Table 1: Production, Supply and Demand: Poultry, Meat, Broiler
6](#table-1-production-supply-and-demand-poultry-meat-broiler)

[Table 2: Poultry, Meat, Broiler, Price
7](#table-2-poultry-meat-broiler-price)

[Table 3: Average Retail Prices of Beef and Poultry Meat 2004
8](#table-3-average-retail-prices-of-beef-and-poultry-meat-2004)

[(at the Jakarta Markets) 8](#at-the-jakarta-markets)

[Table 4: Average Retail Prices of Beef and Poultry Meat 2005
8](#table-4-average-retail-prices-of-beef-and-poultry-meat-2005)

[(at the Jakarta Markets) 8](#at-the-jakarta-markets-1)

[Table 5: Average Farm Gate Prices of Poultry Meat 2004 in Indonesia
9](#table-5-average-farm-gate-prices-of-poultry-meat-2004-in-indonesia)

[Table 6: Poultry Meat Tariffs 10](#table-6-poultry-meat-tariffs)

[Table 7: Feed Demand -- Strategic Indicator Tables for Indonesia
11](#table-7-feed-demand-strategic-indicator-tables-for-indonesia)

# SECTION I -- SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## Production

Broiler output is forecast to reach 672,000 tons in 2006, just 5 percent
above that in 2005. The sector will still be operating at well below
full capacity, and this forecast is about 60,000 tons below the record
output achieved in 2003. However, Avian Influenza (AI) and rising input
costs hinder any expectations for more rapid growth. AI is now endemic
in Indonesia, with cases reported from North Sumatra, throughout Java,
South Sulawesi, Kalimantan, and in many of the Islands of Eastern
Indonesia. Twenty-one of Indonesia's thirty-three provinces have
reported cases. While the number of reported cases has declined
significantly since the beginning of the outbreak in August 2003, and
vaccination has reportedly been successful in curbing the disease in the
largest integraters' production and breeding facilities, the disease is
proving almost impossible to eradicate from smaller production farms and
back-yard flocks. The challenges hindering effective control of the
disease include: lack of consistent reporting, lax implementation of
animal movement controls and other bio security measures, unregulated
live bird markets, inadequate resources to conduct mass culling and
purchase vaccines, and the prevalence of backyard chickens among other
avian species. These conditions are likely to continue unabated through
2006, limiting potential for faster growth in output.

In addition to AI, economic factors will likely restrain production
prospects in 2006. Indonesia is expected to have to reduce fuel
subsidies in the near future, increasing the cost of this important
input for poultry producers. In addition, continued weakness in the
rupiah will weigh heavily on the cost of imported inputs, particularly
soy meal, corn, and breeder stock. These higher costs will further
squeeze margins of an industry characterized by over-capacity and
already struggling to maintain profits.

The 2005 production estimate has been reduced to 640,000 tons, or just 2
percent above 2004. Expectations for a stronger rebound in output in
2005 were dashed with the announcement in July 2005 of first human
deaths related to AI. The news of the three deaths lead to wide and
sometimes misleading coverage in the local press, causing a sharp drop
in consumer confidence and a shock to demand. In the six weeks following
the announcement, demand for poultry dropped in some locales as much as
25 percent as consumers turned away from chicken meat in favor of fish.
In late August 2005, sales in local markets indicate demand has started
to rebound, and as Ramadan approaches in October 2005, expectations are
that demand will fully recover. However, fallout from the three human
deaths are a continuing drag on consumer confidence, clouding future
demand prospects, and any additional human cases would have a severe
impact on demand and output.

Believing that a complete "stamping out" (i.e., culling) policy would
not be economically viable, the Ministry of Agriculture has opted for
culling only infected poultry, with mass vaccination and bio- security
as the main front-line control measures. Reportedly this policy has been
effective for larger companies with the capacity to purchase vaccines
and the sophistication to implement strict bio-security measures, but
these measures have not been fully implemented among smaller producers,
and remain quite inconsistent and very difficult to implement at the
village level among backyard poultry.

Day-Old-Chick (DOC) production for broilers in 2005 is estimated at
approximately 19 million head/week or about 962 million per year and is
expected to reach around 20 million in 2006. Four fully integrated, five
semi-integrated, and sixty-four non-integrated breeder farms account for
the chick production. The sector still relies on imported breeding
stock.

Feed demand for poultry production (broiler and layer only) in 2005 is
estimated to be around 5.8 million tons, (excluding that for swine,
aquaculture, dairy and cattle feed, which is estimated at about 1
million tons) or 45 percent of the 11 million ton feed millers capacity
from 26 companies (19 of them are the main players). Feed accounts for
sixty to sixty-five percent of poultry production costs, and a high
percentage of that is imported, particularly the protein needs. The
poultry industry suffered another blow when the GOI banned U.S. Meat and
Bone Meal (MBM) imports on July 1^st^ 2005 due to the newly reported BSE
case in the United States. The sector can now only import MBM from New
Zealand or Australia. Feed demand is expected to rebound in 2006, but
continued high fuel prices, as well as the weak local currency will
continue to be constraints to the sector's potential.

With relatively low per capita broiler consumption and an increasing
population, vast potential for further growth exists. However, the
endemic AI problem, continued economic instability, and deficiencies in
cold storage, distribution, and processing must still be overcome for
the sector to achieve a path of continued steady growth.

## Consumption

Following the demand shock associated with the report of human AI deaths
in 2005, consumption is forecast to rebound about 5 percent in 2006.
Consumption dropped about 20 percent after the human AI deaths were
announced in July 2005, but by August 2005, consumer confidence was
returning, and the sector is hopeful that consumption will fully rebound
as Ramadan approaches in October 2005. Interestingly, quick--service
chain outlets, located almost exclusively in urban areas, reported
normal sales during the time when demand in the rest of the sector
dropped. This indicates the growing role these outlets now play with
urban consumers. For 2005, broiler meat consumption is estimated at
640,000 tons, or 2.9 kg/capita/year (projected 220 million population at
2005), which is still well below many of Indonesia's ASEAN neighbors.
While consumption in 2005 is expected to show a slight year-to-year
increase, it is much less than what was estimated prior to the fallout
from the human AI cases.

## Trade

The ban on imported U.S. chicken parts implemented in September 2000
continues, and imports of other poultry meat remain relatively
insignificant. One poultry company was exporting a minor quantity of
processed poultry products to Japan prior to the appearance of AI in
2003. Eligibility to export to Japan has not been reinstated since the
confirmation of AI.

## Policy

As stated above, the de-facto ban on U.S. leg quarters imports remains,
and no change in this policy is expected. In January 2005, the
Government of Indonesia (GOI) released a revised list of agriculture
tariffs, including an increase on that for chicken leg quarters (HS 0207
14 2500) from 5 to 25%. This led some in the sector to believe that the
ban had been lifted. While theoretically leg quarter imports could
occur, GOI has still not approved any U.S. plants to export broiler
parts, and the ability of these products to be certified *Halal* in the
United States is still questioned by local authorities. Furthermore, the
Ministry of Agriculture controls trade through the issuance of import
permits, which are withheld for poultry parts. The GOI has stated that
for leg quarter imports to resume, first an "overall review" of the U.S.
poultry inspection system and *Halal* certification process must be
completed, and then individual plants must be reviewed.

Even after completing the above procedural requirements, it is
questionable whether the local poultry industry would allow leg quarter
imports to resume. The sector remains adamantly opposed to allowing U.S.
leg quarter imports, which they view as one of the primary "threats" to
the health of the industry, even though imports haven't occurred for
almost five years. While concern over *\"Halal"* certification was used
as the original justification for the barrier and still is by GOI, the
private sector still couches the ban more in economic terms as a needed
protectionist measure. As an indication of how the sector might react to
any easing of leg quarter imports, in March 2005 the Ministry of
Agriculture agreed to open the border to imports of poultry products
from certain areas of Malaysia. The Ministry quickly had to rescind this
decision just a few weeks later due to the outcry from the local poultry
industry.

Efforts to remove the ban on U.S. broiler parts can be expected to
provoke a fierce backlash from the local industry. Meanwhile, the sector
continues to represent one of the most important buyers on U.S.
agriculture products in Indonesia. Total purchases (feed components and
live chicks) by the industry in 2005 are estimated to be around \$150
million.

## Additional information

Please visit the following website to find any related information in \"
Bahasa Indonesia\": [http://www.poultryindonesia.com]{.underline};
[http://www.trobos.com;]{.underline}
[http://www.efeedgrain.com](http://www.efeedgrain.com/)[;]{.underline}
[http://www.pinsar.com](http://www.pinsar.com/)[,
http://www.deptan.go.id.]{.underline}

# SECTION II -- STASTICAL INFORMATION AND TABLES

## Table 1: Production, Supply and Demand: Poultry, Meat, Broiler

  ------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  PSD Table                                                                     

  CountryIndonesia                                                              

  CommodityPoultry,                                                  (1000      
  Meat, Broiler                                                      MT)(MIL    
                                                                     HEAD)      

                      2004          Revised    2005       Estimate   2006       Forecast

                      USDA Official Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                      \[Old\]       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                                    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year Begin                 01/2004               01/2005               01/2006

  Inventory           104           104        111        105        0          110
  (Reference)                                                                   

  Slaughter           742           742        799        757        0          795
  (Reference)                                                                   

  Beginning Stocks    0             0          0          0          0          0

  Production          627           627        675        640        0          672

  Whole, Imports      0             0          0          0          0          0

  Parts, Imports      0             0          0          0          0          0

  Intra EC Imports    0             0          0          0          0          0

  Other Imports       0             0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Imports       0             0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY        627           627        675        640        0          672

  Whole, Exports      0             0          0          0          0          0

  Parts, Exports      0             0          0          0          0          0

  Intra EC Exports    0             0          0          0          0          0

  Other Exports       0             0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Exports       0             0          0          0          0          0

  Human Consumption   627           627        675        640        0          672

  Other Use, Losses   0             0          0          0          0          0

  Total Dom.          627           627        675        640        0          672
  Consumption                                                                   

  TOTAL Use           627           627        675        640        0          672

  Ending Stocks       0             0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  627           627        675        640        0          672

  Calendar Yr. Imp.   0             0          0          0          0          0
  from U.S.                                                                     
  ------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

**Note:**

Inventory: population divided by 8 (the number of slaughter cycle per
year)

Slaughter: 90% of population (10% mortality)

Production: 65% of slaughter (head to weight) x average live bird weight
(1.3 kg)

## Table 2: Poultry, Meat, Broiler, Price

  ----------------- --------------------- --------------------- ----------
  **Prices Table**                                              

  **Country**       Indonesia                                   

  **Commodity**     Poultry, Meat,                              
                    Broiler                                     

  Prices in         IDR                   per uom               kilogram

                                                                

  Year              2004                  2005                  \% Change

  Jan               12,300                13,150                7%

  Feb               11,625                12,675                9%

  Mar               11,950                12,325                3%

  Apr               12,325                11,700                -5%

  May               12,110                12,125                0%

  Jun               12,650                13,288                5%

  Jul               13,375                13,800                3%

  Aug               12,630                                      

  Sep               11,170                                      

  Oct               12,038                                      

  Nov               12,850                                      

  Dec               12,810                                      

                                                                

  Exchange Rate     10,000                Local Currency/US \$  

  Date of Quote     24-Aug-05             MM/DD/YYYY            
  ----------------- --------------------- --------------------- ----------

## Table 3: Average Retail Prices of Beef and Poultry Meat 2004

##  (at the Jakarta Markets)

+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| **Month**             | **Beef**              | **Poultry Meat**      |
|                       |                       |                       |
|                       | **(Rp./kg)**          | **(Rp./kg)**          |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| January               | 36,875                | 12,300                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| February              | 36,825                | 11,625                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| March                 | 37,400                | 11,950                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| April                 | 37,450                | 12,325                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| May                   | 36,775                | 12,110                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| June                  | 36,325                | 12,650                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| July                  | 36,425                | 13,375                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| August                | 36,340                | 12,630                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| September             | 36,575                | 11,170                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| October               | 29,800                | 12,038                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| November              | 43,007                | 12,850                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| December              | 42,675                | 11,810                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+

**Source:** Center for Market Information (PIP), Ministry of Trade

## Table 4: Average Retail Prices of Beef and Poultry Meat 2005

##  (at the Jakarta Markets)

+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| **Month**             | **Beef**              | **Poultry Meat**      |
|                       |                       |                       |
|                       | **(Rp./kg)**          | **(Rp./kg)**          |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| January               | 43,525                | 13,150                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| February              | 43,675                | 12,675                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| March                 | 44,900                | 12,325                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| April                 | 44,700                | 11,700                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| May                   | 44,375                | 12125                 |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| June                  | 46,300                | 13,288                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| July                  | 45,550                | 13,800                |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| August                |                       |                       |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| September             |                       |                       |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| October               |                       |                       |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| November              |                       |                       |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| December              |                       |                       |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+

**Source**: Center for Market Information (PIP), Ministry of Trade

## Table 5: Average Farm Gate Prices of Poultry Meat 2004 in Indonesia

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  **Month**               **2004 (Rp./kg)**       **2005 (Rp./kg)**

  January                 8,023                   8,820

  February                4,518                   8,260

  March                   5,466                   7,016

  April                   7,590                   7,062

  May                     8,978                   8,278

  June                    8,621                   8,335

  July                    9,094                   8,130

  August                  7,922                   7,176

  September               6,671                   

  October                 7,183                   

  November                8,163                   

  December                8,325                   
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

**SOURCE:** Market Information Center for Poultry Products (PINSAR),
compiled by FAS/Jakarta

## Table 6: Poultry Meat Tariffs

+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| **H      | **Description of      | **     | *      | *       | *   |
| armonize | Goods**               | 2004** | *VAT** | *2003** | *VA |
| System   |                       |        |        |         | T** |
| Code**   | **(HS Number)**       | **     | *      | *       |     |
|          |                       | Import | *(%)** | *Import | *   |
|          |                       | Duty** |        | Duty**  | *(% |
|          |                       |        |        |         | )** |
|          |                       | *      |        | **(%)** |     |
|          |                       | *(%)** |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 02.07    | Meat and edible offal |        |        |         |     |
|          | of the poultry of     |        |        |         |     |
|          | heading No. 01.05,    |        |        |         |     |
|          | fresh, chilled or     |        |        |         |     |
|          | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
|          | -Of fowls of the      |        |        |         |     |
|          | species Gallus        |        |        |         |     |
|          | domesticus            |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.11.000 | fresh or chilled      |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.12.000 | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Cuts and offal, fresh | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.13.000 | or chilled            |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Cuts and offal,       |        |        |         |     |
| 7.14.000 | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 0207     | Wings                 | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| .14.1000 |                       |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 0207     | Thighs                | 25     | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| .14.2000 |                       |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 0207     | Livers                | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| .14.3000 |                       |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 0207     | Others                | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| .14.9000 |                       |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.24.000 | fresh or chilled      |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.25.000 | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Cuts and offal, fresh | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.26.000 | or chilled            |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Cuts and offal,       | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.27.000 | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
|          | -Of ducks, geese or   |        |        |         |     |
|          | guinea fowls          |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.32.000 | fresh or chilled      |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Not cut in pieces,    | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.33.000 | frozen                |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Fatty livers, fresh   | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.34.000 | or chilled            |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Other, fresh or       | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.35.000 | chilled               |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 020      | Other, frozen         | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 7.36.000 |                       |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 160      | Sausages and Similar  | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 1.00.000 | Products, of meat,    |        |        |         |     |
|          | meat offal or blood;  |        |        |         |     |
|          | food preparations     |        |        |         |     |
|          | based on these        |        |        |         |     |
|          | products              |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+
| 160      | Meat, meat offal or   | 5      | 10     | 5       | 10  |
| 2.32.000 | blood of fowls        |        |        |         |     |
|          | prepared or prepared  |        |        |         |     |
+----------+-----------------------+--------+--------+---------+-----+

**Source:** 2005 Government of Indonesia Tariff Book

## Table 7: Feed Demand -- Strategic Indicator Tables for Indonesia

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  ANIMAL                                                                    
  INVENTORIES-Beginning of                                                  
  Year (in heads)                                                           

  Country: Indonesia                        **Last Year**   **Current       **Out Year
                                                            Year**          Forecast**

  Report Year: 2004         **2003**        **2004**        **2005**        **2006**

  Poultry (including ducks) 1,238,169,802   1,283,164,666   1,347,322,899   1,414,689,044

  Hogs                      6,150,535       6,568,894       6,897,339       7,035,286

  Dairy Cattle              373,753         381,635         419,799         440,789

  Goats                     12,722,082      13,441,699      14,113,784      14,819,473

  Beef Cattle & Buffalo     12,963,562      13,298,516      14,628,368      15,359,786
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

  ------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------
  **MEAT PRODUCTION (in metric                                        
  tons) **                                                            

  Country: Indonesia              ** **       **Last      **Current   **Out Year
                                              Year**      Year**      Forecast**

  Calendar Year: 2004             **2003**    **2004**    **2005**    **2006**

  Poultry                                                              

  Poultry Meat (including ducks)  1,137,975   1,164,401   1,199,333   1,259,300

  Eggs (including ducks)          973,590     1,051,365   1,156,502   1,272,152

  Pork                            177,093     185,652     181,628     199,791

  Beef                            369,711     380,059     369,281     406,209

  Goat                            63,866      69,628      63,018      69,320
  ------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------

  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------
  **COMPOUND FEED SECTOR (in                                        
  1,000 mt) **                                                      

  Country: Indonesia              ** **      **Last     **Current   **Out Year
                                             Year**     Year**      Forecast**

  Calendar Year: 2004             **2003**   **2004**   **2005**    **2006**

  Compound Feed Capacity          10,000     10,000     12000\*)    12000\*)

  Total Compound Feed Produced    6,800      6,500      6,800       7,100

  \-\-\-\-\-- by integrated       5,100      5,100      5,300       5,500
  producers                                                         

  \-\-\-\-\-- by commercial       1,700      1,400      1,500       1,600
  producers                                                         

  Note: \*) Including aquafeed                                      
  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------

  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------
  **FEED GRAIN USE (in 1,000                                        
  mt) **                                                            

  Country: Indonesia              ** **      **Last     **Current   **Out Year
                                             Year**     Year**      Forecast**

  Marketing Year: 2004/2005       **2003**   **2004**   **2005**    **2006**

  Corn (Domestic consumption:     3,750      3,500      3,600       3,750
  feed)                                                             

  Other:                                                             

  Wheat (Domestic consumption:    50         50         50          50
  feed)                                                             

  Rice (Domestic sonsumption)     36,000     35,850     35,600      35,600
  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------

  ------------------------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  **PROTEIN - ENERGY USAGE (in                                                    
  1,000 mt)**                                                                     

  Country: Indonesia              ** **           **Last Year**   **Current       **Out Year
                                                                  Year**          Forecast**

  Marketing Year: 2004/2005       **2003/2004**   **2004/2005**   **2005/2006**   **2006/2007**

  Total Protein Meal (feed waste  1,978           2,040           2,130           2,218
  domestic consumption)                                                           

  Soy Bean Meal (feed waste       1,470           1,500           1,550           1,597
  domestic consumption)                                                           

  Other Protein Meal:                                                              

  Palm Kernel Meal (feed waste    444             475             515             556
  domestic consumption)                                                           

  Rape Meal (feed waste domestic  5               5               5               5
  consumption)                                                                    

  Fish Meal (feed waste domestic  n.a             n.a             n.a             n.a
  consumption)                                                                    

  Sunflower Meal                  0               0               0               0

  Cottonseed Meal                 0               0               0               0

  Feather Meal                    0               0               0               0

  Meat Meal                       0               0               0               0

  Palm Oil (feed waste domestic   59              60              60              60
  consumption)                                                                    
  ------------------------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------
  **TRADE (in 1,000 mt)**                                           

  Country: Indonesia              ** **      **Last     **Current   **Out Year
                                             Year**     Year**      Forecast**

  Calendar Year: 2004             **2003**   **2004**   **2005**    **2006**

  Corn                                                               

  Imports:                        1,343      1,000      700         800

  Exports:                        31         40         50          60

  Soy Beans                                                          

  Imports:                        1,207      1,160      1,200       1,230

  Exports:                        0          0          0           0

  Soy Bean Meal                                                      

  Imports:                        1,800      1,600      1,400       1,600

  Exports:                        0          0          0           0

  Fish Meal                                                          

  Imports:                        48         53         55          55

  Exports:                        5          6          6           6

  Sunflower Meal                                                     

  Imports:                        0          0          0           0

  Exports:                        0          0          0           0

  Rape Meal                                                          

  Imports:                        57         63         65          65

  Exports:                        0          0          0           0

  Cottonseed Meal                                                    

  Imports:                        2          2          2           3

  Exports:                        8          12         12          15

  Meat Bone Meal & Hydrolized                                        
  Feather Meal                                                      

  Imports:                        361        300        200         246

  Exports:                        0          5          5           5

  Meat Meal                                                          

  Imports:                        2          1          1           1

  Exports:                        0          0          0           0

  Peanut Meal                                                        

  Imports:                        5          68         20          20

  Exports:                        3          0          0           0

  Palm Oil                                                           

  Imports:                        4          5          5           5

  Exports:                        6,386      7,000      7,500       8,000
  ------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ------------

  ------------------------------- ----------------- --------- ----------- ----------------
  **TARIFFS AND TAXES **                                                  

  Country: Indonesia              ** **             ** **     ** **       **Other**

  Report Year: 2004               **Product**       **Bound   **Applied   **Import**
                                                    Rate**    Rate**      

  **HS Code:**                    **Description**   **(%)**   **(%)**     **Taxes/Fees**

  0505.9                          Feather Meal      40        5           10

  1501.00.00.60                   Yellow Grease     40        5           10

  1502.00.00.40                   Inedible Tallow   40        5           10

  1511                            Palm Oil          40        0           10

  1518                            Anml/Vg Fats &    40        5           10
                                  Oils                                    

  2301.10                         Meat & Bone Meal  40        0           10

  2301.20                         Fish Meal         40        0           10
  ------------------------------- ----------------- --------- ----------- ----------------