Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 12/30/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** GM4001

GM4001

**Germany**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Semi-Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Karina Ramos

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Sabine M. Lieberz

**Report Highlights:**

FAS/Berlin raises the estimate for German commercial apple production in
MY 2003/04 (harvest 2003) from 807,000 MT to 860,000 MT. The production
estimate for pears is left unchanged at 49,000 MT.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Semi-Annual Report

Berlin \[GM1\]

\[GM\]

Executive Summary

This report contains changes to the PSD for apples and pears submitted
in our last Fresh Deciduous Fruit report (GM3047 Update on Production
Estimates). The trade tables are left unchanged.

Official figures for German commercial apple and pear production for the
2003 harvest are expected to be released around mid to end of January of
2004. Based on stock figures and industry information, FAS/Berlin raises
the estimate for commercial apple production in MY 2003/04 (harvest
2003) from 807,000 MT to 860,000 MT. The production estimate for pears
is left unchanged at 49,000 MT. For apples this is a 13 percent increase
compared to the very low production of 763,000 MT in MY 2002/03. Pear
production is 24 percent below the MY 2002/03 harvest.

# Apples

Based on stock figures and industry information, FAS/Berlin raises the
estimate for commercial apple production in MY 2003/04 (harvest 2003) to
860,000 MT. This compares to our previous estimate of 807,000 MT and
last year's production of 763,000 MT. It appears that the effects of the
Summer drought turned out to be less severe than previously thought.

German official sources do not issue production estimates for
non-commercial apple production, as the last tree census for
non-commercial apple trees dates from the 1960s. Therefore, FAS/Berlin
figures for non-commercial apple production are very rough estimates.
Non-commercial apple production includes apples from trees in meadows
and house gardens and is mostly used for processing. For MY 2003/2004,
non-commercial apple production is estimated at about 600,000 MT, 25
percent below MY 2002/2003.

At this time of the year, commercial stock figures give a better picture
about market prospects than harvest figures alone. As of December 1,
2003, producer organizations held 22 percent higher stocks than at the
same time the previous year. However, stocks are still 4 percent below
the long term average and 16 percent below the full harvest year of MY
2000/2001.

Stock developments vary considerably by region. Stocks are down 14
percent year-on-year in the South due to the extreme summer heat and
drought. In contrast stocks are up 45 percent in the North, and 52
percent in the East. These regions were not hit as bad by the drought as
the South, plus the previous seasons had delivered very poor crops
there.

When looking at the stocks of the different varieties it has to be noted
that the increase of stocks of the variety \"*Gala*\" and "*Braeburn*"
reflect increased plantings of those varieties in the last couple of
years, while the increase in "*Gloster*" is to be seen in comparison to
the very low crop of the previous year.

The variation in shelf life appears to be larger than in average years,
especially with varieties, which were harvested early, such as *Gala*
and *Elstar*. Due to the heat during harvest, which resulted in higher
sugar and lower acid content than usual in the fruits, the apples seem
to ripen faster once they come out of the storage.

Table 1: PSD for Fresh Apples (in ha, 1000 trees, MT)

+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| #               |       |        |       |       |       |        |
| ##### PSD Table |       |        |       |       |       |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| **Country**     | *     |        |       |       |       |        |
|                 | *Germ |        |       |       |       |        |
|                 | any** |        |       |       |       |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| **Commodity**   | **    |        |       |       | (HA)  |        |
|                 | Fresh |        |       |       | (1000 |        |
|                 | App   |        |       |       | TREES |        |
|                 | les** |        |       |       | )(MT) |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
|                 | 2001  | R      | 2002  | Est   | 2003  | Fo     |
|                 |       | evised |       | imate |       | recast |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
|                 | USDA  | Post   | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post   |
|                 | Off   | Es     | Off   | Est   | Off   | Es     |
|                 | icial | timate | icial | imate | icial | timate |
|                 | \[    | \      | \[    | \[    | \[    | \      |
|                 | Old\] | [New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | [New\] |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| **Market Year   |       | 0      |       | 07    |       | 0      |
| Begin**         |       | 7/2001 |       | /2002 |       | 7/2003 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Area Planted    | 3     | 36,124 | 3     | 3     | 3     | 31,219 |
|                 | 6,124 |        | 1,219 | 1,219 | 1,219 |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Area Harvested  | 3     | 36,124 | 3     | 3     | 3     | 31,219 |
|                 | 6,124 |        | 1,219 | 1,219 | 1,219 |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Bearing Trees   | 5     | 58,382 | 6     | 6     | 6     | 64,182 |
|                 | 8,382 |        | 4,182 | 4,182 | 4,182 |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Non-Bearing     | 0     | 0      | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0      |
| Trees           |       |        |       |       |       |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Total Trees     | 5     | 58,382 | 6     | 6     | 6     | 64,182 |
|                 | 8,382 |        | 4,182 | 4,182 | 4,182 |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Commercial      | 92    | 9      | 76    | 76    | 80    | 8      |
| Production      | 2,433 | 22,433 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 7,000 | 60,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Non-Comm.       | 60    | 6      | 80    | 80    | 60    | 6      |
| Production      | 0,000 | 00,000 | 0,000 | 0,000 | 0,000 | 00,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| TOTAL           | 1,52  | 1,5    | 1,56  | 1,56  | 1,40  | 1,4    |
| Production      | 2,433 | 22,433 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 7,000 | 60,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| TOTAL Imports   | 68    | 6      | 85    | 85    | 72    | 7      |
|                 | 0,604 | 80,604 | 1,491 | 1,491 | 0,000 | 00,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY    | 2,20  | 2,2    | 2,41  | 2,41  | 2,12  | 2,1    |
|                 | 3,037 | 03,037 | 4,291 | 4,291 | 7,000 | 60,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Domestic Fresh  | 1,45  | 1,4    | 1,58  | 1,58  | 1,41  | 1,4    |
| Consumption     | 2,892 | 52,892 | 0,567 | 0,567 | 0,000 | 43,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Exports, Fresh  | 6     | 66,555 | 6     | 6     | 5     | 55,000 |
| Only            | 6,555 |        | 5,705 | 5,705 | 5,000 |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| For Processing  | 68    | 6      | 76    | 76    | 66    | 6      |
|                 | 3,000 | 83,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 2,000 | 62,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| Withdrawal From | 590   | 590    | 19    | 19    | 0     | 0      |
| Market          |       |        |       |       |       |        |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
| TOTAL           | 2,20  | 2,2    | 2,41  | 2,41  | 2,12  | 2,1    |
| UTILIZATION     | 3,037 | 03,037 | 4,291 | 4,291 | 7,000 | 60,000 |
+-----------------+-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+--------+

Table 2: Commercial Apple Stocks held by Producer Organizations on
December 1 by Year, Variety and Region in MT

+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
|             | 19      | 2      | 2      | 200    | 2      | Change  |
|             | 99/2000 | 000/01 | 001/02 | 2/03\* | 003/04 | in      |
|             |         |        |        |        |        | percent |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| # T         | 326,276 | 3      | 2      | 2      | 2      | 22      |
| otal Apples |         | 49,007 | 98,257 | 39,435 | 91,147 |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Thereof     |         |        |        |        |        |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| J           | 11,656  | 1      | 96,052 | 81,805 | 1      | 31      |
| onagold\*\* |         | 14,062 |        |        | 07,452 |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Elstar      | 51,443  | 49,812 | 48,313 | 41,537 | 39,885 | -4      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Idared      | 31,646  | 40,236 | 30,087 | 29,147 | 34,305 | 18      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Golden      | 33,799  | 29,763 | 25,988 | 29,058 | 29,297 | 1       |
| Delicious   |         |        |        |        |        |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Gloster     | 28,451  | 27,999 | 24,480 | 12,966 | 21,938 | 69      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Gala        | 7,013   | 8,368  | 7,346  | 9,148  | 11,445 | 25      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Braeburn    | 7,060   | 7,377  | 8,246  | 5,548  | 10,332 | 86      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Other       | 155,208 | 71,390 | 57,745 | 30,226 | 36,493 | 21      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
|             |         |        |        |        |        |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| **By        |         |        |        |        |        |         |
| region:**   |         |        |        |        |        |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| North       | 118,519 | 1      | 1      | 80,398 | 1      | 45      |
|             |         | 47,344 | 36,849 |        | 16,944 |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| East        | 72,943  | 88,368 | 65,487 | 54,721 | 83,101 | 52      |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| Center-West | 19,891  | 12,165 | 13,218 | 8,030  | 8,355  | 4       |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+
| South       | 114,923 | 1      | 82,703 | 96,286 | 82,747 | -14     |
|             |         | 01,130 |        |        |        |         |
+-------------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------+

\* = revised

\*\* Jonagold and similar varieties

Source: Central Market and Price Reporting Agency (ZMP)

# Pears

Commercial pear production in MY 2003/04 is estimated at 49,000 MT
compared to 64,000 MT in MY 2002/03.

Commercial pear stocks amounted to about 2,000 MT on December 1, 2003,
compared to about 1,900 MT the year before.

## 

Table 3: PSD for Fresh Pears (in ha, 1000 trees, MT)

  -------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                    

  **Country**          **Germany**                                                 

  **Commodity**        **Fresh                             (HA)(1000               
                       Pears**                             TREES)(MT)              

                       2001          Revised    2002       Estimate     2003       Forecast

                       USDA Official Post       USDA       Post         USDA       Post
                       \[Old\]       Estimate   Official   Estimate     Official   Estimate
                                     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]      \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                      07/2001               07/2002                 07/2003
  Begin**                                                                          

  Area Planted         2,372         2,372      2,090      2,090        2,090      2,090

  Area Harvested       2,372         2,372      2,090      2,090        2,090      2,090

  Bearing Trees        2,346         2,346      2,703      2,703        2,703      2,703

  Non-Bearing Trees    0             0          0          0            0          0

  Total Trees          2,346         2,346      2,703      2,703        2,703      2,703

  Commercial           46,823        46,823     64,000     64,000       49,000     49,000
  Production                                                                       

  Non-Comm. Production 0             0          0          0            0          0

  TOTAL Production     46,823        46,823     64,000     64,000       49,000     49,000

  TOTAL Imports        159,758       159,758    165,000    163,523      158,000    158,000

  TOTAL SUPPLY         206,581       206,581    229,000    227,523      207,000    207,000

  Domestic Fresh       195,155       195,155    214,600    211,899      194,000    194,000
  Consumption                                                                      

  Exports, Fresh Only  10,164        10,164     12,500     13,724       11,000     11,000

  For Processing       1,262         1,262      1,900      1,900        2,000      2,000

  Withdrawal From      0             0          0          0            0          0
  Market                                                                           

  TOTAL UTILIZATION    206,581       206,581    229,000    227,523      207,000    207,000
  -------------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ----------

Related reports:

  ---------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------
  Report     Date         Title
  Number                  

  GM3011     3/17/2003    EU support for the fruit and vegetable sector
                          in Germany

  GM3024     8/13/2003    Prognosfruit 2003 -- European Crop Forecast
                          Convention

  GM3025     8/15/2003    Fruit Tree Census

  GM3029     8/27/2003    Fresh Fruit Annual

  GM3047     11/14/2003   Fresh Deciduous Fruit -- Update on Production
                          Estimates
  ---------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------