Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Dean

(AL042007)

13-23 August 2007

James L. Franklin

National Hurricane Center

31 January 2008

Revised 19 February 2008

(for damage statistics in Martinique and Guadeloupe and to add
acknowledgments)

Revised 7 April 2008

(corrected wind speeds in Table 1 between 16/1200 UTC and 17/0600 UTC)

Dean was a classic Cape Verde cyclone that moved through the Caribbean
as a major hurricane, passing very close to Jamaica and later making
landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a category 5
hurricane. Dean, the first Atlantic hurricane since Andrew of 1992 to
reach land at category 5 strength, was responsible for 32 deaths.

a.  Synoptic History

    Dean originated from a well-defined tropical wave that crossed the
    west coast of Africa on 11 August. The wave was associated with a
    closed surface low even before entering the Atlantic, but strong
    easterly shear kept the system's convection displaced from an
    elongated circulation center for a couple of days. By about 0600 UTC
    13 August, however, the circulation became better defined and
    sufficiently connected to the deep convection to consider the low a
    tropical depression about 350 n mi west-southwest of Praia in the
    Cape Verde Islands. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's
    path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown
    in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and
    intensities are listed in Table 1.

    Embedded in a strong easterly current, the depression initially
    moved westward at about 20 kt. The environment was still
    characterized by easterly shear, and the depression took 30 h to
    reach storm strength; this occurred at 1200 UTC 14 August, when the
    system was centered about 1250 n mi east of Barbados. Although the
    cyclone's satellite presentation remained ragged, Dean strengthened
    early the next day as it turned to the west-northwest, still moving
    briskly. Dean would continue on this heading, to the south of a
    deep-layer ridge of high pressure, for the next seven days.

    The easterly shear gradually abated, and by late on 15 August
    well-defined convective banding had developed around the center and
    microwave data showed the formation of a partial eyewall. Shortly
    thereafter, infrared satellite imagery began to show an eye, and
    Dean became a hurricane early on 16 August about 480 n mi east of
    Barbados. As upper-level outflow became more pronounced, Dean
    reached an intensity of 80 kt by 1200 UTC that day, but the eyewall
    then disappeared and the strengthening trend temporarily halted.

    Dean entered the Caribbean Sea on 17 August, its center passing
    between Martinique and St. Lucia around 0930 UTC (Fig. 4). The
    northern eyewall, accompanied by sustained winds of about 85 kt,
    passed directly over Martinique. With upper-level outflow increasing
    in all quadrants, Dean then began to strengthen rapidly in the
    eastern Caribbean Sea, its winds increasing from 80 to 145 kt
    (category 1 to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in
    the 24 h ending at 0600 UTC 18 August. At 1200 UTC that day, Dean's
    minimum central pressure was 923 mb.

    During this period of rapid deepening Dean's forward motion slowed
    to about 15 kt; its heading, however, remained remarkably constant
    throughout the Caribbean as high pressure was maintained to the
    north of the hurricane, while a mid- to upper-level low over south
    Florida on 18 August retreated westward in tandem with the tropical
    cyclone. The center of Dean passed about 180 n mi south of Puerto
    Rico early on 18 August, and continued west-northwestward in the
    direction of Jamaica.

    By 1200 UTC that day, microwave imagery showed a concentric eyewall
    structure (Fig. 5). As the inner eyewall eroded over the next 12 h,
    Dean's maximum sustained winds decreased from 145 kt to 120 kt
    (Category 4). Interestingly, the central pressure fell slightly
    during this time, dropping below 920 mb for a short period early on
    19 August (Fig 3). Dean remained a Category 4 hurricane as its
    center passed within about 80 n mi of the south coast of Haiti
    during the morning of 19 August, and within about 20 n mi of the
    south coast of Jamaica that evening. Dean's intensity as it passed
    Jamaica is estimated to be 125 kt, although reconnaissance data
    suggest that Dean's strongest winds remained just offshore.

    On 20 August Dean moved away from Jamaica over the deep warm waters
    of the northwestern Caribbean. The convective structure that day was
    dominated by a single eyewall, and under light shear Dean began to
    strengthen as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula. As the eyewall
    contracted, Dean regained Category 5 status near 0000 UTC 21 August,
    and was still deepening when the center made landfall near the town
    of Majahual in the Costa Maya tourist region of the Yucatan near
    0830 UTC that day. At the time of landfall, Dean is estimated to
    have had a minimum central pressure of 905 mb and maximum sustained
    winds of 150 kt, making it the first land-falling Category 5
    hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Andrew of 1992.

    Dean weakened as it moved across the Yucatan Peninsula, emerging
    into the Bay of Campeche around 1900 UTC. Although Dean maintained
    hurricane strength throughout its 10-h passage over land, its inner
    core convective structure was largely disrupted. Aircraft
    reconnaissance data in the Bay of Campeche showed that the cyclone's
    radius of maximum wind had expanded to roughly 55 n mi, and Dean was
    only able to recapture a small fraction of its former strength.
    Deep-layer high pressure along the northern coast of the Gulf of
    Mexico kept Dean on its west-northwestward track until 1200 UTC 22
    August, when the cyclone turned to the west. Dean made landfall at
    1630 UTC that day near the town of Tecolutla, Mexico, about 90 n mi
    northeast of Veracruz, as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 85
    kt.

    Dean weakened rapidly after landfall, becoming a depression by 0000
    UTC 23 August, and dissipating over the mountains of central Mexico
    shortly thereafter.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Dean (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as
    well as flight-level, Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR)
    and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command
    (AFRC). Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting
    satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the
    NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
    satellites, among others, were also useful in tracking Dean and
    analyzing its structure.

    AFRC reconnaissance aircraft conducted 17 missions into Dean over a
    period of seven days. Unfortunately, communications issues with the
    aircraft prevented receipt of a substantial quantity of
    reconnaissance data operationally. In addition, the very strong
    radial gradients of wind speed across the eyewall of Dean
    incorrectly triggered SFMR data-blanking algorithms, causing the
    loss of additional data. A substantial effort was made to
    reconstruct/reprocess these data to assist in the preparation of
    this report. Raw SFMR data were reprocessed after the event by of
    ProSensing, Inc., using their latest retrieval algorithm with
    improved quality-control thresholds. Only 10-s means from the
    reprocessed SFMR profiles were considered in the post-storm
    analysis; this is the same spatial averaging that is applied to AFRC
    flight-level observations. Complete flight-level data records were
    obtained for selected missions, as well as raw dropsonde
    observations from the eyewall of Dean, which were then reprocessed
    by the author.

    There were a number of notable reconnaissance observations obtained
    during Dean, including an SFMR surface wind estimate of 150 kt at
    0504 UTC 18 August (Fig. 2). Examination of the SFMR wind profile
    across the eyewall reveals that this was a broad maximum that is
    difficult to dismiss as unrepresentative, although the peak
    flight-level (700 mb) wind observed around this time was 154 kt,
    which would correspond only to 139 kt at the surface using the
    standard 90% adjustment factor for this flight level. There were two
    dropsondes early on 18 August that reported instantaneous surface
    winds of 144 and 149 kt, but in both cases the profile shapes
    strongly suggest that these particular estimates were
    unrepresentative of a sustained wind. The best track intensity for
    0600 UTC 18 August is set at 145 kt, and represents a compromise
    between the SFMR and flight-level estimates.

    It is worth noting that Dean's minimum sea-level pressure at this
    time was only 929 mb, and that the pressure fell another 10 mb or so
    over the next 18-24 h. During the time of this pressure fall,
    however, important structural changes were occurring: Dean's inner
    eyewall eroded, resulting in a re-distribution of the pressure
    gradient. There were 30-40 kt reductions in both peak SFMR and
    dropsonde winds observed during this period, and the peak
    flight-level winds concurrently fell by over 20 kt. Accordingly, the
    best track shows a decrease in winds from 145 kt to 120 kt (Fig. 2).
    This well-monitored hurricane illustrates some of the pitfalls of
    using central pressure as a proxy or measure of tropical cyclone
    intensity.

    Dean is estimated to have made landfall near Majahual as a Category
    5 hurricane on 21 August with maximum sustained winds of 150 kt and
    a minimum pressure of 905 mb, the latter estimate being based on a
    dropsonde report of 906 mb at 0814 UTC, accompanied by a surface
    wind speed of 15 kt. At 905 mb, Dean ties Camille (1969) and
    Mitch (1998) for the seventh-lowest central pressure on record in
    the Atlantic basin, and the third-lowest landfall pressure, behind
    only Gilbert and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

    The maximum winds at landfall are harder to estimate, as there is a
    considerable spread among the various observations taken around this
    time. The most extreme of these is a dropsonde surface report of 177
    kt at 0728 UTC. This was associated with a very thin layer of strong
    winds immediately at and just above the surface, which because of
    friction is an impossible steady-state configuration; consequently
    this observation is rejected as unrepresentative of a sustained
    wind. Several hours prior to landfall, around 0000 UTC, there was
    good agreement between the SFMR and surface-adjusted flight-level
    winds on an intensity of 145 kt. Subsequently, the pressure fell
    from 914 mb to 905 mb, while the flight-level winds increased
    slightly: at 0653 UTC and 0819 UTC, flight level winds of 165 and
    164 kt were recorded, respectively, corresponding to surface winds
    of 149 and 148 kt. Interestingly, the SFMR did not encounter surface
    winds higher than 136 kt around the time of landfall, further
    complicating the analysis. Given the eyewall/convective structure,
    however, greater weight is placed on the flight-level observations,
    resulting in a landfall intensity estimate of 150 kt.

    Ship and buoy reports of winds of tropical storm force associated
    with Dean are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations
    from land stations are given in Table 3. In Martinique, a sustained
    (1-min mean) wind of 81 kt was observed at Vauclin, a site along the
    southeast coast of the island but outside of Dean's eyewall. A gust
    to 101 kt was reported at Sainte-Anne; this site did experience the
    eyewall but has a more sheltered exposure. The highest storm-total
    rainfall in Martinique was 13.07 inches at Fort de France-Colson.

    There are few authoritative observations from Dean's passage over
    Jamaica, as many instruments did not survive the storm. At Norman
    Manley International Airport in Kingston (MKJP), the weather station
    tower was blown over around 1800 UTC 19 August, causing a loss of
    data. Numerous rain gauges were blown or washed away. There was a
    ham radio report of an 89 kt sustained wind in Munro, St. Elizabeth,
    before the instrument was disabled. The highest rainfall report was
    13.50 inches at Ingleside, Manchester.

    No official wind observations of significance were received in
    association with either of Dean's landfalls in Mexico, which
    occurred in relatively-sparsely populated areas. The maximum
    rainfall report was 15.39 inches at Requetemu, San Luis Potosi in
    central mainland Mexico. In Sabancuy, Campeche, 10.87 inches of rain
    was recorded.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    Based largely on reports provided by the meteorological services of
    the affected countries, the number of direct deaths associated with
    Dean is estimated to be 32, with 14 occurring in Haiti, 12 in
    Mexico, 3 in Jamaica, 2 in Dominica, and 1 in St. Lucia. Remarkably,
    the deaths in Mexico occurred in the states of Hidalgo, Puebla,
    Veracruz, and San Luis Potosi, in association with Dean's second
    (weaker) landfall.

    Dean is estimated to have been a Category 2 hurricane when its
    northern eyewall passed over Martinique. Flooding was reported
    throughout the island. Approximately 1300 homes were destroyed and
    another 7500 experienced severe damage. Media and government reports
    indicate the complete destruction of the island's banana crop, and a
    70% loss of the sugar cane crop. Damage has been estimated at 400
    million Euros. Although there were no direct deaths, there were at
    least three indirect deaths, including one from a heart attack and
    one suicide. Over 200 post-storm injuries were reported during the
    cleanup after the event. In Guadeloupe, damage has been estimated at
    100 million Euros, with about 75% of the banana plantations
    destroyed. The fishing industry also suffered significant losses,
    and resorts along the south coast of the island reported damage.

    Strong winds and heavy seas caused extensive damage along the north
    and west coasts of St. Lucia, including damage to bridges, roofs,
    and utility poles. Damage there was estimated at \$18 million. In
    St. Vincent, some homes lost their roofs, and roof damage was also
    reported in Dominica. There was a complete loss of banana crop in
    Dominica. In Barbados, storm surge flooding described as serious was
    reported along the south coast.

    The center of Dean passed about 90 n mi south of the Dominican
    Republic. Rainfall associated with outer bands there was relatively
    light, although very heavy surf was reported along the south coast
    that media reports indicate destroyed several homes. Landslides
    reportedly destroyed several hundred homes in Haiti, and were
    responsible for most of the fatalities there.

    In Jamaica, the most severe impacts were reported in the
    southeastern parishes of Clarendon, St. Catherine, and Kingston/St.
    Andrew, where it is estimated that roughly two-thirds of the homes
    were completely destroyed or would require major repairs. Flooding
    in Jamaica was not generally significant, although some occurred in
    eastern parishes where grounds had become saturated by rains the
    previous week. Agriculture, particularly the banana crop, was
    severely impacted.

    Dean made its initial landfall in Mexico in a relatively uninhabited
    area, sparing the popular tourist destinations of Cancun and
    Cozumel, and consequently the damage was relatively light. Majahual
    was the only town to experience the full force of the hurricane,
    where hundreds of buildings were destroyed and steel girders were
    crumpled. Puerto Costa Maya, the nearby cruise port, was severely
    damaged and was expected to be closed for many months. Farther to
    the south, the government of Belize reported about \$100 million in
    damage in that country. At its second landfall near Tecalutla,
    Mexico, extensive roof damage was reported, along with downed trees
    and power lines.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The genesis of Dean was well anticipated in Tropical Weather Outlook
    (TWO) products. The wave from which Dean formed was introduced into
    the TWO as a tropical cyclone candidate as it emerged from the
    African continent into the Atlantic. The National Weather Service
    Global Forecast System (GFS) model was consistently calling for
    development of this wave well before it entered the Atlantic basin.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 4. Average official track errors for Dean were 21,
    39, 58, 82, 141, 198, and 274 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged
    from 37 at 12 h to 19 at 120 h. These errors are lower than the
    average long-term official track errors at all time periods (Table
    4), and significantly lower than the long-term averages out to 48 h.
    As can be seen in Fig. 6, the official forecasts had relatively low
    cross-track errors; although it is difficult to determine from the
    diagram, the official forecasts primarily had a slow bias, as did
    many of the guidance models. Among the models, the GFS performed
    exceptionally well, while the GFDL did unusually poorly, taking Dean
    too far to the north on many occasions. Several of the guidance
    models outperformed the official forecast at the longer intervals.

    A verification of official and guidance model intensity forecasts is
    given in Table 5. Average official intensity errors were 10, 12, 13,
    14, 21, 33, and 32 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h
    forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average long-term
    official intensity errors are 6, 10, 12, 14, 18, 20, and 22 kt,
    respectively. As is often the case with intense hurricanes, official
    intensity errors for Dean were above the long-term means, and
    particularly so at the longer ranges. However, the official
    forecasts were generally superior to the objective guidance. The
    official forecasts had a modest low bias.

    Watches and warnings associated with Dean are given in Table 6.

    *Acknowledgements*.

    Radar imagery, as well as information on conditions and impacts in
    Martinique and Guadeloupe was provided by of Meteo-France. The
    meteorological services of St. Lucia, Jamaica, and Mexico also
    provided some of the quantitative information included in this
    report.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August
2007.

+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| Dat    | La     | Lo      | P       | Wind    | Stage              |
| e/Time | titude | ngitude | ressure | Speed   |                    |
|        |        |         |         |         |                    |
| (UTC)  | (°N)   | (°W)    | (mb)    | (kt)    |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 12.2   | 28.9    | 1006    | 30      | tropical           |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         | depression         |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 12.1   | 30.7    | 1005    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 12.0   | 32.4    | 1005    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.9   | 34.5    | 1005    | 30      | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.8   | 36.5    | 1005    | 30      | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.8   | 38.3    | 1004    | 35      | tropical storm     |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.8   | 40.1    | 1002    | 40      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 11.9   | 41.7    | 997     | 50      | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 12.0   | 43.4    | 997     | 50      | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 12.3   | 45.1    | 997     | 50      | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 12.8   | 47.0    | 994     | 55      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 13.0   | 49.2    | 991     | 60      | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 13.2   | 51.3    | 984     | 70      | hurricane          |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 13.5   | 53.3    | 970     | 80      | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 13.8   | 55.5    | 972     | 80      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 14.0   | 57.7    | 976     | 80      | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 14.2   | 59.8    | 975     | 80      | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 14.4   | 61.7    | 967     | 90      | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 14.8   | 63.5    | 961     | 110     | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 14.9   | 65.1    | 944     | 125     | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 15.0   | 66.6    | 929     | 145     | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 15.4   | 68.0    | 923     | 145     | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 15.9   | 69.5    | 930     | 130     | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 16.1   | 71.0    | 920     | 120     | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 16.4   | 72.6    | 921     | 120     | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 16.8   | 74.3    | 923     | 125     | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 17.1   | 76.0    | 930     | 125     | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.5   | 77.8    | 926     | 125     | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.6   | 79.8    | 926     | 130     | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 17.8   | 81.5    | 926     | 130     | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 18.0   | 83.3    | 924     | 135     | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 18.2   | 85.1    | 914     | 145     | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 18.6   | 86.9    | 907     | 150     | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 18.9   | 88.7    | 935     | 110     | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 19.2   | 90.5    | 960     | 75      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 22 /   | 19.7   | 92.2    | 979     | 65      | \"                 |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 22 /   | 20.1   | 94.0    | 979     | 70      | \"                 |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 22 /   | 20.5   | 95.5    | 976     | 80      | \"                 |
| 1200   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 22 /   | 20.5   | 97.3    | 974     | 75      | \"                 |
| 1800   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 23 /   | 20.5   | 99.0    | 998     | 30      | tropical           |
| 0000   |        |         |         |         | depression         |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 23 /   |        |         |         |         | dissipated         |
| 0600   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 18.7   | 87.7    | 905     | 150     | minimum pressure   |
| 0830   |        |         |         |         |                    |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 18.7   | 87.7    | 905     | 150     | Landfall near      |
| 0830   |        |         |         |         | Majahual, Mexico   |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 22 /   | 20.5   | 97.0    | 974     | 85      | Landfall near      |
| 1630   |        |         |         |         | Tecolutla, Mexico  |
+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected ship and fixed buoy reports with
winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007.

+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Date/Time | Ship/Buoy | Latitude  | Longitude | Wind      | Pressure  |
| (UTC)     | ID        |           |           |           |           |
|           |           | (°N)      | (°W)      | dir/speed | (mb)      |
|           |           |           |           | (kt)      |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 13 / 0000 | VRBL4     | 14.2      | 27.0      | 040 / 35  | 1010.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 16 / 1250 | 41040     | 14.5      | 53.0      | 120 / 41  | 1008.3    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 16 / 1900 | 41101     | 14.6      | 56.2      | 070 / 50  | 1003.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 17 / 0100 | 41100     | 15.9      | 57.9      | 080 / 35  | 1011.6    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 17 / 0600 | J8PB      | 17.9      | 64.1      | 080 / 37  | 1015.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 18 / 0600 | C6FN4     | 18.0      | 64.8      | 100 / 39  | 1011.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 18 / 0941 | 42059     | 15.0      | 67.5      | 306 / 57  | 974.2     |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 18 / 1800 | ELUC5     | 16.7      | 66.1      | 130 / 45  | 1010.2    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 20 / 0000 | DHER      | 16.4      | 76.0      | 170 / 35  | 1006.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 20 / 0300 | C6FZ7     | 21.4      | 74.0      | 090 / 39  | 1015.0    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 20 / 0600 | DHER      | 18.2      | 74.9      | 120 / 45  | 1010.8    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 20 / 2250 | 42056     | 19.9      | 85.1      | 071 / 52  | 1001.3    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 22 / 0931 | 42055     | 22.0      | 94.0      | 118 / 55  | 1001.2    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Selected surface observations for Hurricane
Dean, 13-23 August 2007.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Martinique**  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Caravelle (elev |     |     | 1   | 68    | 78  |     |     |     |
| 38 m)           |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 000 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Diamant^e^      |     |     | 1   | 55    | 82  |     |     |     |
| (elev 353 m)    |     |     | 7/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 800 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sainte-Anne^e^  |     |     | 1   | 66    | 101 |     |     |     |
| (elev 13 m)     |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Vauclin^e^      |     |     | 1   | 81    | 93  |     |     |     |
| (elev 19 m)     |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Lamentin        |     |     | 1   | 54    | 82  |     |     |     |
| Airport         |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 000 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (elev 8 m)      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fort de France  |     |     | 1   | 73    | 99  |     |     |     |
| Desaix          |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (elev 140 m)    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fonds st Denis  |     |     | 1   | 73    | 113 |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (elev 510 m)    |     |     | 100 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fort de France  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
| Colson          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .07 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bellefontaine   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
| Verrier         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .97 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Marin Usine     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .79 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sainte Anne     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
| Salines         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .24 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fort de France  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
| DDST            |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .24 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Saint Pierre    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
| Galère          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .86 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fonds St Denis  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
| Cadets          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .19 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sainte Marie    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
| Pérou           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .13 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Robert          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
| Villarson       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .38 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Trinité         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| Réservoir       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .65 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **St. Lucia**   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Charles Airport | 1   | 99  |     | 45    | 58  |     |     | 3   |
| (TLPC)          | 7/1 | 1.3 |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
|                 | 000 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Hewanorra       | 1   | 99  | 1   | 38    | 58  |     |     | 2   |
|                 | 7/0 | 7.9 | 7/1 |       |     |     |     | .10 |
|                 | 900 |     | 000 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Dominica**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Canefield       |     |     | 1   |       | 68  |     |     |     |
| Airport         |     |     | 7/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 140 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Barbados**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Grantley Adams  | 1   | 100 | 1   | 39    | 48  |     |     | 1   |
| (78954)         | 7/0 | 4.2 | 7/0 |       |     |     |     | .13 |
|                 | 500 |     | 623 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Dominican     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Republic**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Barahona (MDBH) |     |     | 1   | 45    |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 9/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 200 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Punta Cana      |     |     |     | 33    | 40  |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Juma Bonao      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .53 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Jamaica**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Norman Manley   | 1   | 991 |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
| Intl. Airpt.    | 9/1 |     |     |       |     |     |     | .13 |
|                 | 930 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Folly Point     | 1   | 1   | 1   | 44^f^ |     |     |     | 4   |
| (Portland)      | 9/2 | 000 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     | .17 |
|                 | 058 |     | 928 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Morant Point    | 1   | 99  | 1   | 54^f^ |     |     |     |     |
| (St. Thomas)    | 9/2 | 9.1 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 047 |     | 747 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Ingleside,      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
| Manchester      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .50 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Morant Bay, St. |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
| Thomas          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .05 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Norris, St.     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
| Thomas          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .27 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Jamaica**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| **(Ham Radio    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| Reports)**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Stony Hill, St. |     | 992 | 1   | 65    |     |     |     |     |
| Andrew          |     |     | 9/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 219 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Portmore, St.   |     |     | 1   | 85    |     |     |     |     |
| Catherine       |     |     | 9/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 030 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Munro, St.      |     |     | 2   | 89^e^ |     |     |     |     |
| Elizabeth       |     |     | 0/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 000 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Lionel Town,    |     |     | 1   | 87    |     |     |     |     |
| Clarendon       |     |     | 9/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 156 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Mexico**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Chetumal (MMCM) |     |     | 2   | 50    | 70  |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     | 1/1 |       |     |     |     | .65 |
|                 |     |     | 200 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Isla Lobos,     |     |     | 2   | 44    | 57  |     |     | 2   |
| Veracruz        |     |     | 2/1 |       |     |     |     | .47 |
|                 |     |     | 730 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cayo Arcas,     |     |     | 2   | 62    | 75  |     |     | 1   |
| Campeche        |     |     | 2/0 |       |     |     |     | .15 |
|                 |     |     | 230 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tuxpan          | 2   | 97  |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 2/1 | 4.2 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 800 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabancuy,       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
| Campeche        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Escarcega,      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
| Campeche        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .42 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Requetemu, San  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 15  |
| Luis Potosi     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .39 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Zaqualtipan,    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
| Hildago         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ Record incomplete.

^f^ 10-min mean.

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Preliminary track forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007. Forecast
errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses.
Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face
type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 32    | 67    | 106   | 149   | 257   | 401   | 578   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 39    | 69    | 106   | 117   | **91  | **117 | **180 |
|           | (35)  | (32)  | (30)  | (24)  | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       | 17)** | 13)** | 9)**  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 31    | 50    | 79    | 115   | 210   | 323   | 428   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 29    | 46    | 62    | **81  | 141   | 214   | 326   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (     | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
|           |       |       |       | 32)** |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 23    | **37  | **51  | **64  | **103 | **150 | **188 |
|           | (38)  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       | 36)** | 34)** | 32)** | 28)** | 24)** | 20)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 30    | 58    | 81    | 107   | 169   | 240   | 306   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (21)  | (10)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 40    | 84    | 131   | 147   | 229   | 322   | 440   |
|           | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (29)  | (25)  | (21)  | (17)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 28    | 46    | 59    | **80  | **133 | **152 | **219 |
|           | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       | 30)** | 26)** | 20)** | 16)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 27    | 48    | 63    | 83    | **130 | **184 | **256 |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       | 28)** | 24)** | 20)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 30    | 46    | 60    | **74  | **121 | **180 | **239 |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       | 32)** | 28)** | 24)** | 20)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 50    | 90    | 122   | 146   | 181   | 216   | **261 |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 20)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | 27    | 51    | 77    | 90    | **133 | 206   | 280   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (     | (24)  | (20)  |
|           |       |       |       |       | 28)** |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 21    | 39    | 59    | 85    | **127 | **180 | **257 |
|           | (35)  | (33)  | (31)  | (29)  | (     | (     | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       | 25)** | 19)** | 15)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | **18  | **31  | **50  | **66  | **100 | **145 | **240 |
|           | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     |
|           | 32)** | 30)** | 28)** | 26)** | 22)** | 18)** | 14)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 21    | 39    | 58    | 82    | 141   | 198   | 274   |
|           | (37)  | (35)  | (33)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  | (19)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 61    | 86    | 112   | 162   | 221   | 290   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 5. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007. Forecast errors (kt) are
followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than
the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OCD5      | **9.4 | 12.1  | 16.2  | 19.5  | 33.6  | 49.8  | 48.8  |
|           | (     | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
|           | 38)** |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI      | 11.1  | 15.3  | 16.4  | 18.8  | 26.4  | 35.5  | 40.0  |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 9.7   | 12.9  | 17.3  | 19.2  | 25.1  | 35.3  | 47.2  |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP      | 12.7  | 17.6  | 21.3  | 24.5  | 31.6  | 37.0  | 43.0  |
|           | (37)  | (35)  | (33)  | (31)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 9.8   | 12.5  | *     | *     | *     | *     | 35.0  |
|           | (37)  | (35)  | *12.9 | *13.2 | *20.9 | *27.9 | (20)  |
|           |       |       | (     | (     | (     | (     |       |
|           |       |       | 33)** | 31)** | 28)** | 24)** |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 12.4  | 16.1  | 21.2  | 25.8  | 32.4  | 35.1  | 40.7  |
|           | (32)  | (30)  | (28)  | (26)  | (22)  | (18)  | (14)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | 9.7   | 12.8  | 13.6  | 16.4  | 22.2  | 33.0  | 37.5  |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 9.6   | 12.0  | 13.5  | 13.7  | 21.5  | 32.6  | 32.1  |
|           | (37)  | (35)  | (33)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  | (19)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.4   | 9.8   | 12.0  | 14.1  | 18.3  | 19.8  | 21.8  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 6. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Dean, 13-23 August 2007.

  -------------- ----------------------------- --------------------------
  Date/Time      Action                        Location
  (UTC)                                        

  16 / 0300      Tropical Storm Watch issued   St. Maarten

  16 / 0300      Hurricane Watch issued        St. Lucia

  16 / 0300      Hurricane Watch issued        Martinique/Guadeloupe

  16 / 0300      Hurricane Watch issued        Saba/St. Eustatius

  16 / 0900      Hurricane Watch changed to    St. Lucia
                 Hurricane Warning             

  16 / 0900      Hurricane Warning issued      Dominica

  16 / 1200      Tropical Storm Watch issued   St. Vincent

  16 / 1200      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Montserrat/Antigua/St.
                                               Kitts/Nevis/Barbuda

  16 / 1200      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Grenada

  16 / 1200      Tropical Storm Warning issued Barbados

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Montserrat/Antigua/St.
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     Kitts/Nevis/Barbuda

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Grenada
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch          All
                 discontinued                  

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        Barbados
                 discontinued                  

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning issued Barbados/St.
                                               Vincent/Grenadines

  16 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning issued St. Maarten/Saba/St.
                                               Eustatius

  16 / 1500      Hurricane Watch discontinued  Saba/St. Eustatius

  16 / 2100      Hurricane Watch changed to    Martinique/Guadeloupe
                 Hurricane Warning             

  16 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Puerto Rico to U. S.
                                               Virgin Islands

  17 / 0000      Tropical Storm Warning issued Anguilla

  17 / 0300      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Puerto Rico to U. S.
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     Virgin Islands

  17 / 0300      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Cabo Engano to
                                               Haiti/Dominican Republic
                                               border

  17 / 0600      Tropical Storm Watch modified Cabo Engano to
                 to                            Port-Au-Prince

  17 / 0600      Tropical Storm Warning issued British Virgin Islands

  17 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Cabo Engano to
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     Port-Au-Prince

  17 / 1500      Hurricane Warning changed to  St. Lucia
                 Tropical Storm Warning        

  17 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        Barbados/St.
                 discontinued                  Vincent/Grenadines

  17 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        Grenada
                 discontinued                  

  17 / 1500      Hurricane Watch issued        Cabo Beata to
                                               Port-Au-Prince

  17 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Camaguey to Guantanamo

  17 / 2100      Tropical Storm Warning        St. Lucia
                 discontinued                  

  17 / 2100      Tropical Storm Warning        St. Maarten/Saba/St.
                 discontinued                  Eustatius

  17 / 2100      Hurricane Watch issued        Jamaica

  17 / 2100      Hurricane Warning             Dominica
                 discontinued                  

  17 / 2100      Hurricane Warning             Martinique
                 discontinued                  

  18 / 0000      Tropical Storm Warning        Cabo Engano to Barahona
                 modified to                   

  18 / 0000      Hurricane Watch modified to   S Border Haiti/Dominican
                                               Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  18 / 0000      Hurricane Warning issued      Barahona to S Border
                                               Haiti/Dominican Republic

  18 / 0300      Tropical Storm Warning        Montserrat/Antigua/St.
                 discontinued                  Kitts/Nevis/Barbuda

  18 / 0300      Tropical Storm Warning        Anguilla
                 discontinued                  

  18 / 0300      Tropical Storm Warning        Port-Au-Prince to N Border
                 modified to                   Haiti/Dominican Republic

  18 / 0300      Hurricane Watch discontinued  S Border Haiti/Dominican
                                               Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  18 / 0300      Hurricane Warning             Guadeloupe
                 discontinued                  

  18 / 0300      Hurricane Warning modified to Barahona to Port-Au-Prince

  18 / 1500      Hurricane Watch changed to    Jamaica
                 Hurricane Warning             

  18 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        Puerto Rico to U. S.
                 discontinued                  Virgin Islands

  18 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        British Virgin Islands
                 discontinued                  

  18 / 1500      Hurricane Watch issued        Cayman Islands

  18 / 1800      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Camaguey to Guantanamo
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     

  19 / 0300      Hurricane Watch changed to    Cayman Islands
                 Hurricane Warning             

  19 / 0300      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Ciego de Avila to Isla de
                                               la Juventud

  19 / 0600      Tropical Storm Warning        Cabo Engano to Barahona
                 discontinued                  

  19 / 0600      Tropical Storm Warning issued Cabo Caucedo to
                                               Haiti/Dominican Republic
                                               Border

  19 / 0600      Hurricane Warning modified to S Border Haiti/Dominican
                                               Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  19 / 0900      Tropical Storm Warning        Cabo Caucedo to
                 discontinued                  Haiti/Dominican Republic
                                               Border

  19 / 1200      Hurricane Warning modified to S Border Haiti/Dominican
                                               Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  19 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Pinar del Rio to La Habana

  19 / 1500      Hurricane Watch issued        Chetumal to San Felipe

  19 / 1500      Hurricane Warning modified to S Border Haiti/Dominican
                                               Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  19 / 2100      Hurricane Warning changed to  S Border Haiti/Dominican
                 Tropical Storm Warning        Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  19 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Dangriega to Belize/Mexico
                                               border

  19 / 2100      Tropical Storm Warning        S Border Haiti/Dominican
                 modified to                   Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  20 / 0000      Tropical Storm Watch          Dangriega to Belize/Mexico
                 discontinued                  border

  20 / 0000      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Belize City to
                                               Belize/Guatemala border

  20 / 0000      Hurricane Watch modified to   Belize City to San Felipe

  20 / 0300      Hurricane Watch discontinued  Belize City to San Felipe

  20 / 0300      Hurricane Watch issued        Cancun to Ciudad del
                                               Carmen

  20 / 0300      Hurricane Warning issued      Belize City to Cancun

  20 / 0600      Tropical Storm Warning        S Border Haiti/Dominican
                 discontinued                  Republic to Port-Au-Prince

  20 / 0900      Tropical Storm Watch changed  Belize City to
                 to Tropical Storm Warning     Belize/Guatemala border

  20 / 1500      Hurricane Warning changed to  Jamaica
                 Tropical Storm Warning        

  20 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning        Belize City to
                 discontinued                  Belize/Guatemala border

  20 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning issued Cancun to Progresso

  20 / 1500      Hurricane Watch discontinued  All

  20 / 1500      Hurricane Warning modified to Belize/Guatemala border to
                                               Cancun

  20 / 1500      Hurricane Warning issued      Progresso to Ciudad del
                                               Carmen

  20 / 1800      Tropical Storm Warning        Jamaica
                 discontinued                  

  20 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch          Ciego de Avila to Isla de
                 discontinued                  la Juventud

  20 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Isle of Youth

  20 / 2100      Tropical Storm Watch issued   Ciudad del Carmen to
                                               Veracruz

  20 / 2100      Tropical Storm Warning        Camaguey to Guantanamo
                 discontinued                  

  20 / 2100      Hurricane Warning             Cayman Islands
                 discontinued                  

  21 / 0300      Tropical Storm Watch          Ciudad del Carmen to
                 discontinued                  Veracruz

  21 / 0300      Tropical Storm Warning issued Chilitepec to Veracruz

  21 / 0300      Hurricane Watch issued        Chilitepec to Tampico

  21 / 0300      Hurricane Warning modified to Progresso to Chilitepec

  21 / 0900      Tropical Storm Warning        Chilitepec to Veracruz
                 discontinued                  

  21 / 0900      Hurricane Watch modified to   Veracruz to Tampico

  21 / 0900      Hurricane Warning modified to Progresso to Veracruz

  21 / 1500      Tropical Storm Watch          All
                 discontinued                  

  21 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning issued Belize/Mexico border to
                                               Belize/Guatemala border

  21 / 1500      Tropical Storm Warning issued Tampico to La Pesca

  21 / 1500      Hurricane Watch discontinued  All

  21 / 1500      Hurricane Warning modified to Belize/Mexico border to
                                               Cancun

  21 / 1500      Hurricane Warning modified to Progresso to Tampico

  21 / 1800      Tropical Storm Warning        Cancun to Progresso
                 discontinued                  

  21 / 1800      Tropical Storm Warning        Belize/Mexico border to
                 discontinued                  Belize/Guatemala border

  21 / 1800      Hurricane Warning             Belize/Mexico border to
                 discontinued                  Cancun

  22 / 0300      Tropical Storm Warning        Tampico to Bahia Algodones
                 modified to                   

  22 / 0300      Hurricane Warning modified to Campeche to Tampico

  22 / 0900      Tropical Storm Warning        La Cruz to Bahia Algodones
                 modified to                   

  22 / 0900      Hurricane Warning modified to Campeche to La Cruz

  22 / 1500      Hurricane Warning modified to Coatzacoalcos to La Cruz

  22 / 2100      Tropical Storm Warning        La Cruz to Palma Sola
                 modified to                   

  22 / 2100      Hurricane Warning             All
                 discontinued                  

  23 / 0000      Tropical Storm Warning        All
                 discontinued                  
  -------------- ----------------------------- --------------------------

![](media/image1.png){width="7.50625in" height="5.938888888888889in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Dean,
13-23 August 2007.

![](media/image2.png){width="7.750694444444444in"
height="5.313194444444444in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Dean, 13-23
August 2007. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation
using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb,
850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include
actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the
mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Dashed vertical lines correspond to
0000 UTC. Solid vertical lines indicate times of landfall.

![](media/image3.png){width="7.878472222222222in"
height="5.401388888888889in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August
2007. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC. Solid vertical lines
indicate times of landfall.

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="4.441666666666666in"
height="4.624305555555556in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 4. 0945 UTC 17 August radar image of
Hurricane Dean passing between Martinique (top) and St. Lucia, from the
Meteo-France radar at Martinique (image courtesy , Meteo-France).

![](media/image5.jpeg){width="4.2555555555555555in"
height="4.2555555555555555in"}![](media/image6.jpeg){width="4.2555555555555555in"
height="4.2555555555555555in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 5. Microwave images of Hurricane Dean at 1131
UTC 18 August (left) and 1336 UTC 19 August (right). In the first image,
Dean has an inner 25 n mi diameter eyewall that is just beginning to
erode; the intensity at this time is 145 kt. Roughly 24 h later, the
inner eyewall has almost completely disappeared, with the predominant
eyewall now 55 n mi in diameter; over this interval the intensity
decreased to 125 kt. (Images obtained from NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Homepage archive, accessible from
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>)

![](media/image7.png){width="8.715277777777779in"
height="4.872222222222222in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 6. Sequence of official track forecasts for
Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007. The actual track of the cyclone is
given by the white tropical cyclone symbols.