FECN11 CWIS 191800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID-JANUARY TO MID-FEBRUARY
ISSUED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN ICE SERVICE ON 19 JANUARY 2005.

THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 2 FEBRUARY 2005.

**[Lake Superior]{.underline}**

Temperatures were below normal during the first half of January in the
western and central portion of the lake while the eastern side of the
lake was near to above normal. Ice growth was near normal except the
eastern portion of the lake where it was a week to 10 days later than
normal.

Forecast ice conditions from January 19th to January 31st.

Temperatures will be below to much below normal for most of the last two
weeks of January with temperatures moderating to near normal to slightly
above normal by the end of the month.

1.  Thunder Bay --The bay will be consolidated with medium and thick
    lake ice by the fourth week of January.

2.  Nipigon and Black Bays -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  From Marathon to Grand Marais: During the period, the ice edge of
    mostly thin and new lake ice will expand south-eastward and reach
    about 10 to 20 miles of the shore by the end of the month. During
    the third week of January, some new and thin lake ice will form
    along the south-eastern shore of Ile Royale. By the end of the month
    the ice will thicken to thin and medium lake ice.

4.  From Grand Marais to Duluth -- An area of new and thin lake ice will
    begin to form during the third week of January and expand to reach
    about 5 to 10 miles from the shore by the end of the month.

5.  Southern Lake Superior west of Keweenaw Peninsula -- Consolidated
    ice will begin to form in the Duluth during the third week of
    January. Meanwhile the consolidated ice around the southern portion
    of the Apostle Islands will continue to expand northward and cover
    all the islands by the end of the month. The ice edge will move
    off-shore to reach about 8 to 20 miles by the end of January.

6.  Southern Lake Superior east of the Keweenaw Peninsula -- The new and
    thin lake ice will continue to form along the shore and extend to
    about 7 to 15 miles from the shore by the end of January. The ice
    will be mostly thin and medium lake ice at that time.

7.  Whitefish Bay -- The coastal areas of the bay will be covered with
    new and thin lake ice and will continue to expand and cover the
    entire bay by the end of the third week of January. By the end of
    the month, the ice will thicken to thin and medium lake ice. Some
    areas of consolidated ice will form along the coastal areas during
    the last week of January.

8.  From Whitefish Bay northwards to Michipicoten Bay -- New and thin
    lake ice will continue to form along the shore so that by the end of
    January the ice will extend about 10 to 20 miles from the shore.

9.  From Michipicoten Bay to Marathon -- Some patches of new and thin
    lake ice will form along the shore.

10. Elsewhere in Lake Superior -- Open water to ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1st to February 15th.

Temperatures will be below normal during the first two weeks of
February.

1.  Thunder Bay -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

2.  Nipigon and Black Bays -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  From Marathon to Grand Marais: -- During the period, the ice edge of
    mostly thin and medium with some thick lake ice will expand
    south-eastward and reach about 20 to 35 miles of the shore by the
    middle of February.

4.  From Grand Marais to Duluth -- The area of new and thin lake ice
    will continue to expand during the period. By mid-February, the ice
    edge will extend to about 15 to 25 from the shore.

5.  Southern Lake Superior west of the Keweenaw Peninsula --
    Consolidated medium and thick lake ice around the Apostle Islands as
    well as Duluth. The ice edge will continue to move off-shore. By the
    middle of February, the lake west of the Apostle Island will be
    covered with thin and medium lake ice with some thick lake ice near
    the shore. West of the Apostle Islands, the ice edge will extend to
    about 15 to 30 miles.

6.  Southern Lake Superior east of Keweenaw Peninsula -- The new and
    thin lake ice will continue to form along the shore and extend to
    about 15 to 30 miles from the shore by middle of February. The ice
    will be mostly thin and medium lake ice at that time with some thick
    lake ice along the shore.

7.  Whitefish Bay -- Consolidated ice will form along the south-eastern
    section and spread to cover most of the bay with thick lake ice by
    the mid-month. The exception will be the northwestern section of the
    bay where mostly mobile medium and thick lake ice will prevail.

8.  From Whitefish Bay to Michipicoten Bay -- Thin lake ice will
    continue to form along the shore so that by the middle of January
    the ice will extend about 20 to 35 miles from the shore.

9.  From Michipicoten Bay to Marathon -- Areas of thin and new lake ice
    will continue to form along the shore and extend about 5 to 10 miles
    from the shore.

10. Elsewhere in Lake Superior -- Mostly open water except for some
    areas of thin and new lake ice west of the Keweenaw Peninsula near
    the middle of February.

**[Lake Michigan]{.underline}**

Near normal temperatures were observed in the northern portion of the
lake with above normal temperatures over the central and southern
section. Normal ice extent is observed over the northern portion of Lake
Michigan.

Forecast ice conditions from January 19th to January 31st.

Temperatures will be below normal during most of the period.

1.  Green Bay -- During the third week of January, the entire bay will
    be covered with medium and thin lake ice. The southern portion of
    Green Bay will remain consolidated as well as the Little and Big Bay
    de Noc. By the end of January, most of Green Bay will be
    consolidated with medium and thick lake ice except for the northeast
    entrance where the ice will remain mobile medium and thick lake ice.

2.  Northern Lake Michigan -- During the third week of January, the ice
    will grow significantly. By the end of the month, the ice edge will
    be about 5 miles southwest of Beaver Island with mostly medium lake
    ice within the ice pack. The patches of consolidated ice will
    continue to expand from the shore northwest and southwest of the
    Straits of Mackinaw. During the last week of January, the entire
    Straits of Mackinaw and its approaches will be covered with
    consolidated thick late ice. The consolidated ice will extent about
    10 to 15 miles from the straits.

3.  Elsewhere in Lake Michigan -- The coastal area of the lake will
    continue to have area of thin and new lake ice within 3 to 6 miles
    of the shore. Some new and thin lake ice will begin to form in
    southern Grand Traverse Bay. Beyond the ice edge and shore mostly
    open water will prevail with the central portion of the lake being
    ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1st to February 15th.

Temperatures will be below normal over the area.

1.  Green Bay - Most of Green Bay will be consolidated with thick lake
    ice except for the northeast entrance where the ice will remain
    mobile with thick lake ice.

2.  Northern Lake Michigan -- The area of consolidated ice will continue
    to expand slowly westward. A band of consolidated ice will reach Hog
    Island by the middle of February. The general ice edge running
    northwest-southeast will be located about 10 miles southwest of
    Beaver Island.

3.  Elsewhere in Lake Michigan -- The coastal area of the lake will have
    areas of thin lake ice within 3 to 6 miles of the shore except along
    the southwestern shore where the ice will extend to about 10 miles.
    Thin and medium lake ice will expand to cover all of Grand Traverse
    Bay by the end of the first week of February. Beyond the ice edge
    and shore mostly open water will prevail with the central portion of
    the lake being ice free.

**[Lake Huron and Georgian Bay]{.underline}**

Temperatures were above to much above normal during the first half of
January. Ice conditions are about 1 week later than normal in terms of
freeze-up.

Forecast ice conditions from January 19th to January 31st.

Temperatures will be below normal for the last two weeks of January.

1.  North Channel --By the beginning of the fourth week of January, the
    channel will be consolidated with mostly medium and thick lake ice.

2.  St Mary's River -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  South of Manitoulin Island westward to north-western Lake Huron -
    New and thin lake ice will continue to form from the southern shore
    of Manitoulin Island to the northern portion of northwest Lake
    Huron. By the end of January, the ice will extend to about 6 to 10
    miles from the shore.

4.  North-western Lake Huron near the Straits of Mackinaw -- During the
    period most of the north-eastern portion of the lake extending from
    about 15 miles east of Bois Blanc Island westward will be covered
    with thin and medium lake ice. Some coastal consolidated ice will
    form and expand to cover the Straits of Mackinaw from west of Bois
    Blanc Island during the last week of January.

5.  From north-western Lake Huron to Saginaw Bay -- New and thin lake
    ice will continue to form along the shore and spread to reach about
    5 to 10 miles from the shore by the end of January.

6.  Saginaw Bay -- the entire bay will be consolidated during the third
    week of January. The ice will be mostly medium and thick.

7.  The southern and eastern shore of Lake Huron -- Some new and thin
    lake ice growth will continue along the shore. By the end of the
    month, the ice will extend about 5 to 12 miles off-shore with the
    thicker and higher concentrations located along the eastern shore.
    The southern portion of the lake south of Saginaw Bay will be
    covered with ice.

8.  Georgian Bay -- Ice growth will continue as the ice edge extends
    south-westward. New and thin lake ice growth will begin along the
    southwestward coastal area during the third week of January By the
    end of the month, most of the bay will be covered with medium and
    thick lake ice except for the south-western portion where mostly
    thin and new with some medium lake ice will be present

9.  Elsewhere in Lake Huron -- Open water to ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1st to February 15th.

Temperatures will be below normal for the entire area.

1.  North Channel -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

2.  St Mary's River -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  South of Manitoulin Island westward to north-western Lake Huron --
    Thin and medium lake ice will continue to form from the southern
    shore of Manitoulin Island to the northern portion of northwest Lake
    Huron. By the middle of February, the ice will extend to about 8 to
    15 miles from the shore.

4.  North-western Lake Huron near the Straits of Mackinaw -- Ice will
    continue to expand eastward during the first two weeks of February.
    By the end of the period, ice edge will be located about 20 to 25
    miles east of Bois Blanc Island. The area will be covered with
    medium and thick lake ice. The area from the Straits of Mackinaw to
    Bois Blanc Island will remain consolidated with thick lake ice.

5.  From north-western Lake Huron to Saginaw Bay --Thin and medium lake
    ice will spread to reach about 4 to 10 miles from the shore by the
    middle of February.

6.  Saginaw Bay -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

7.  The southern and eastern shore of Lake Huron -- New and thin lake
    ice growth will continue along the southern shore south of Saginaw
    Bay during the last two weeks of January. In the meantime, ice along
    the eastern shore will continue to expand and will extend to about 7
    to 15 miles off-shore with the thicker and higher concentrations
    located near the shore. Mostly medium and thick lake ice will be
    present along the eastern shore with some consolidated ice forming.

8.  Georgian Bay -- Ice growth will continue as the ice edge extends
    south-westward. By the middle of February most of the bay will be
    covered with medium and thick lake ice except for the south-western
    portion where mostly open water with some thin and new lake ice will
    be present

9.  Elsewhere in Lake Huron -- Mostly open water.

**[Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair]{.underline}**

Temperatures were much above normal during the first two weeks of
January. Ice conditions are about one week to 10 days later than normal
in terms of freeze-up.

Forecast ice conditions from January 19th to January 31st.

Temperatures will be below normal during the last two weeks of January.

1.  Lake St Clair and the Western Basin -- Ice growth will continue
    during the third week in Lake St Clair and will become consolidated
    medium lake ice by the end of the third week. In the meantime ice
    will thicken to medium lake ice in the Western Basin.

2.  The rest of Lake Erie -- During the third week in January,
    significant ice will growth will occur. Coastal new and thin lake
    ice will form and quickly spread towards the middle of the lake. By
    the end of January, most of the lake will be covered with medium
    lake ice except for some looser ice conditions along the
    southeastern section of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1st to February 15th.

Temperatures will be below normal for the first two weeks of February.

1.  Lake St Clair and the Western Basin -- Consolidated thick lake ice
    in Lake St Clair by mid-February. The Western Basin will be covered
    with thick lake ice at the end of the period.

2.  The rest of Lake Erie -- All of Lake Erie will be covered with
    medium and thin lake ice during the first week of February.

**[Lake Ontario]{.underline}**

Temperatures were much above normal over the lake during the first half
of January. Freeze-up is about one week later than normal.

Forecast ice conditions from January 19th to January 31st.

Temperatures will be below normal during the last half of January.

1.  Northeastern Lake Ontario -- During the third week of January, the
    northeastern portion of the lake from the southeastern tip of Prince
    Edward County south-eastward to just east of Oswego will be covered
    with new and thin lake ice. The coastal area of Prince Edward County
    will have new and thin lake ice as well.

2.  Bay of Quinte -- The consolidated ice will thicken to thick lake ice
    by the end of January.

3.  St Lawrence River -- Most of the river will be covered with thin and
    new lake ice during the third week of January. By the end of the
    month, all of the river will be consolidated with medium and thick
    lake ice.

4.  Elsewhere in Lake Ontario -- Some patches of new and thin lake ice
    will form within 1 to 4 miles of the shore during the period.
    Further off-shore, conditions will be mostly open water with ice
    free in the central portion of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from February 1st to February 15th.

Temperatures will be below normal for the first half of February.

1.  Northeastern Lake Ontario -- The northeastern portion of the lake
    from the southeastern tip of Prince Edward County south-eastward to
    just east of Oswego will be covered with thin and medium lake ice
    with thick lake ice near the entrance to the St Laurence River. The
    coastal area of Prince Edward County will have thin and medium lake
    ice as well.

2.  Bay of Quinte -- Consolidated thick lake ice.

3.  St Lawrence River -- Consolidated thick lake ice

4.  Elsewhere in Lake Ontario -- Some patches of new and thin lake ice
    will form within 1 to 4 miles of the shore during the period.
    Further off-shore, conditions will be mostly open water with ice
    free in the central portion of the lake.

**Figure 1: Ice forecast, Western Great lakes -- 1 February 2005**

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="3.0208661417322835in"
height="3.9374015748031495in"}

![](media/image2.jpeg){width="3.9374015748031495in"
height="3.0208661417322835in"}

**Figure 2: Ice forecast, Eastern Great lakes -- 1 February 2005**

![](media/image3.jpeg){width="3.0208661417322835in"
height="3.9374015748031495in"}**Figure 3: Ice forecast, Western Great
lakes -- 15 February 2005**

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="3.9374015748031495in"
height="3.0208661417322835in"}**Figure 4: Ice forecast, Eastern Great
lakes -- 15 February 2005**

END