Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 5/30/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** AS6032

AS6032

**Australia**

**Dairy and Products**

**Semi Annual**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kathleen Wainio, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Fluid milk production in 2005/06 is forecast to decline one percent to
10.25 MMT as drier-than-average weather conditions have affected
production in the second half of the year.

Cheese production and exports for 2005/06 are forecast to decline
significantly from the previous year due to: the slight fall in fluid
milk production; a reduction in world cheese prices, particularly in the
cheddar variety; and a sharp increase in the prices received for butter
oil diverting fluid milk away from cheese production.

Butter production in 2005/06 is forecast to increase slightly due to a
44 percent increase in butter oil production that more than offset the
decline in solid butter production.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Semi-Annual Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

Table of Contents

[**SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
3**](#section-one-situation-and-outlook)

[General 3](#general)

[Milk 3](#milk)

[Production 3](#production)

[Exports 4](#exports)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[National Livestock Identification Scheme
4](#national-livestock-identification-scheme)

[Dairy Deregulation in Australia 5](#dairy-deregulation-in-australia)

[Cheese 5](#cheese)

[Production 5](#production-1)

[Exports 6](#exports-1)

[Consumption 6](#consumption-1)

[Butter 6](#butter)

[Production 6](#production-2)

[Exports 7](#exports-2)

[Consumption 7](#consumption-2)

[Whole Milk Powder 7](#whole-milk-powder)

[Production 7](#production-3)

[Exports 8](#exports-3)

[Consumption 8](#consumption-3)

[Skim Milk Powder 8](#skim-milk-powder)

[Production 8](#production-4)

[Exports 8](#exports-4)

[Consumption 8](#consumption-4)

[SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES 9](#section-two-statistical-tables)

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## General

The Australian dairy industry has entered more difficult times in the
second half of 2005/06. Drier-than-average conditions, an appreciation
of the Australian dollar and a fall in world prices has lowered both
production and profitability. This follows a previously buoyant first
half that saw the industry recover from the effects of long running
drought and benefiting from comparatively higher world prices.

At time of this report, much of the Australia's dairy production areas
in southeastern Australia have begun experiencing drier-than-average
conditions, despite intense cyclone activity in northern Australia.
Southern NSW and northern Victoria remain the driest regions, which
account for the majority of Australia's dairy production.

The Australian dairy industry essentially relies on pasture production
to provide the majority of cattle feed, although intensive feeding
continues to grow in importance. Drier-than-average conditions in the
second half of 2005/06 have greatly reduced pasture availability and
quality, increasing reliance upon supplementary feeding.

Irrigation water storage dams in catchments adjacent to dairy regions
have also suffered from drier conditions lowering the levels of water
available for irrigation more recently. This slight fall follows a
period of steady improvement since the breaking of the drought in
2004/05.

Australia experienced record winter cereal production in 2005/06 and has
also experienced relatively good summer crop production conditions.
Supplementary feeding is unlikely to be constrained in the remainder of
2005/06 and into 2006/07, although profit margins are likely to be
affected by ongoing dry weather conditions.

## Milk

### Production

Fluid milk production in 2005/06 is forecast to decline about one
percent to 10.25 MMT, down from 10.43 MMT for the previous year. This
level is consistent with industry year-to-date data showing a similar
decline. A production level of 10.25 MMT would be equivalent to 9.95
billion liters (using a conversion factor of 1.03). This revised
forecast remains well below the earlier forecast of 10.8 MMT (AS5036).

Hotter and drier conditions in the beginning of the second half of
2005/06 resulted in production falling slightly under last year's
levels. Dry conditions are currently persisting into winter and are
forcing some areas back into drought conditions with below average
conditions likely affect production into the beginning of 2006/07.

Fluid milk production for 2004/05 has remained largely unchanged.

![](media/image2.wmf)

*Source: ABARE data (July-June)*

### Exports

Fluid milk exports for 2005/06 are forecast are to increase to 88 TMT.
Industry sources report that most of Australia's fluid milk exports are
in the form of UHT or long life milk products. Fluid milk exports are
expected to continue to grow at modest levels for the foreseeable
future, although they are expected to remain at low levels relative to
fluid milk production.

### Consumption

Fluid milk consumption for 2005/06 is forecast at 2,116 TMT, up slightly
on the estimate of 2,083 TMT for the previous year. Post expects fluid
milk consumption to grow only modestly for the foreseeable future.
Historical data shows fluid milk (fresh milk) consumption remaining
largely unchanged over the past decade.

![](media/image3.wmf)

*Source: Dairy Australia*

### National Livestock Identification Scheme

The National Livestock Identification Scheme (NLIS) for cattle, both
beef and dairy is mandatory in Australia, with the exception of the
states of Queensland and the Northern Territory, which will not achieve
full compliance until 2007.

Under NLIS, it is mandatory for "whole of life" Radio Frequency
Identification Devices (RFID's) to be fitted to cattle prior to leaving
the property of birth. All livestock movements over the lifetime of the
animal are recorded electronically at central points such as livestock
auctions, feedlots and slaughter plants.

NLIS is expected to deliver much improved trace-back capacity to assist
with issues such as disease and chemical residue control, and it is
expected that the pre-existing "tail tag" identification system will be
phased out on time in 2006.

### Dairy Deregulation in Australia

Industry observers continue to assess the impact of the restructuring of
the dairy sector in Australia. In 2000, a dairy structural adjustment
payment scheme was implemented, consisting of A\$1.63 billion to be paid
to eligible farmers over 8 years, in addition, a A\$45 million dairy
exit payment scheme (for 2 years) and a A\$45 million dairy regional
adjustment program (for 3 years). In 2001, a support package of A\$160
million was added. Under the program, farmers are paid on the basis of
their historical production (based on 1998-99 deliveries) at the rate of
A\$ 0.4623 for market milk and A\$ .0896 for manufacturing milk.
Payments are to be made over eight years. The package was partly funded
by a A\$0.11 per liter levy on drinking milk sales that will run until
2010.

Dairy Australia reports as a result of deregulation in 2000, there has
been an accelerated rate of farm rationalization above the long term
average, income effects have varied by region, and the impact has been
blurred by seasonal and market conditions since 2002, particularly the
long-term drought.

## Cheese

### Production

Australian cheese production for 2005/06 is forecast at 341 TMT, down
significantly on the estimate for the previous year. Industry
year-to-date data for the first nine months of 2005/06 indicates a sharp
decline in cheese production for the beginning of the second half of
2005/06. According to historical ABARE data, should this forecast be
achieved this would represent the first decline in annual cheese
production since 2002/03 when severe drought saw cheese production fall
for the first time in nearly a decade.

Industry source suggest the recent fall in cheese production is due to:
the slight fall in fluid milk production due to drier-than-average
weather conditions; a fall in world cheese prices, particularly in the
cheddar variety; and a sharp increase in the prices received for butter
oil diverting fluid milk away from cheese production. Industry sources
have also noted that continuing restructure of the Australian dairy
industry has resulted in the closure of at least one cheese factory,
although Post expects this capacity to be countered over time by
increased output in remaining plants.

This forecast of lower cheese production contradicts the long-term trend
of steadily directing more dairy output toward higher value cheese
production and away from lower value commodities such as butter.

![](media/image4.wmf)

Sources: ABARE data (July-June)

### Exports

Total cheese exports for 2005/06 are forecast at 195 TMT, down sharply
on the estimate for the previous year. This reduction is largely in-line
with industry year-to-date data showing a 14 percent decline in total
cheese exports. Cheddar exports are down over 20 percent while all other
cheeses are down just under nine percent. This drop in cheese exports,
if achieved, would contradict the long-term trend of steady growth in
cheese exports according to historical ABARE data.

### Consumption

Domestic consumption in 2005/06 is forecast at 210 TMT, down on the
estimate for the previous year. Official consumption data is not
available for cheese. Post considers domestic demand for cheese to be
relatively strong, although reduced production will likely see
consumption fall in 2005/06.

## Butter 

### Production

Australian butter production in 2005/06 is forecast to increase slightly
to 132 TMT. The increase is the result of a 44 percent increase in
butter oil production that more than offset the 18.7 percent decline in
solid butter production. Post includes the production of butter oil in
total butter production and uses a conversion factor of 1.242 to convert
butter oil to butter equivalent.

Butter oil production is currently accounting for about 43 percent of
total butter equivalent production, up from 29 percent for the same
period in the previous year. Industry sources suggest strong export
opportunities in the butter oil export markets have led to greatly
increased production and have speculated that this may be related to
higher energy oil prices generally, which have increased prices of food
oils.

![](media/image5.wmf)

Source: ABARE data (July-June)

### Exports

Total butter exports for 2005/06 are forecast at 75 TMT, up from the
revised estimate for the previous year. Butter oil export volumes have
surged on a year-to-date basis, up 37 percent on the same period for the
previous year. Strong export demand has reportedly driven this increase
with industry sources relating this trend to higher world oil prices.
Exports of solid butter have fallen 18 percent in line with the decline
in solid butter production over the same period.

### Consumption

Butter consumption in 2005/06 is forecast at 66 TMT, up slightly on the
previous year. Official consumption statistics are unavailable for
butter. Post expects butter consumption to continue growing
incrementally for the foreseeable future.

## Whole Milk Powder

### Production 

Australian whole milk powder production in 2005/06 is forecast at 180
TMT, down from the revised estimate of 189 TMT for the previous year.
Industry year-to-date production data indicate anticipated declines have
abated in the second half of 2005/06. Slightly lower supplies of total
fluid milk, due to dry conditions, and the diversion of fluid milk
toward the manufacture of butter oil will likely to see overall
production fall in 2005/06.

![](media/image6.wmf)

Source: ABARE data

### Exports

Total whole milk powder exports are forecast at 170 TMT, up slightly
from last year's level, and in line with industry year-to-date data.
Reduced production of cheese has influenced the slight increase.

### Consumption

Consumption of whole milk powder for 2005/06 is forecast at 27 TMT, up
slightly on the previous year. Official consumption data for whole milk
powder is unavailable, although historic ABARE data shows the gap
between production and exports (domestic disappearance) to be
increasing. Anecdotal evidence suggests strong growth in the domestic
food-manufacturing sector would likely be demanding higher levels of
milk powders for food manufacturing.

## Skim Milk Powder

### Production

Total production of skim milk powder (SMP) for 2005/06 is forecast at
216 TMT, up on the 206 TMT estimated for the previous year. This
forecast is consistent with industry year-to-date data showing a five
percent increase in production. Industry sources suggest that an
increase in SMP production is consistent with an increase in butter oil
production also shown in the same data.

![](media/image7.wmf)

Source: ABARE data (July-June)

### Exports

SMP exports for 2004/05 are forecast at 204 TMT, up sharply from the 174
TMT estimated for the previous year. Industry year-to-date shows exports
to be up about 35.5 percent although export values for the same period
are up by only 17 percent. Post believed that the increased production
of butter oil is causing increased production of SMP, which is in turn
being discounted for export rather than placed into stocks.

### Consumption 

Total SMP consumption for CY 2005/06 is forecast at 20 TMT, unchanged
from the estimate for the previous year. Official consumption data is
not available for SMP although Post does not anticipate significant
changes from year to year.

# SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES

+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**      |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Milk, Fluid |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                    | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                    | 4** | ed** | 5** | te** | 6** | st** |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                    | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                    | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                    | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                    | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                    | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                    | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                    | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                    |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year      |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**            |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 | MM/Y |
|                    |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Cows In Milk**   | 2   | 2036 | 2   | 2041 | 2   | 2045 | *(   |
|                    | 036 |      | 041 |      | 045 |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | HD)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Cows Milk        | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
| Production**       | 377 | 0377 | 428 | 0429 | 750 | 0250 | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Milk       | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Production**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL            | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
| Production**       | 377 | 0377 | 428 | 0429 | 750 | 0250 | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**  | 2   | 2    | 2   | 3    | 2   | 3    | *(   |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**  | 2   | 2    | 2   | 3    | 2   | 3    | *(   |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**   | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
|                    | 379 | 0379 | 430 | 0432 | 752 | 0253 | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**  | 86  | 86   | 87  | 84   | 89  | 88   | *(   |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**  | 86  | 86   | 87  | 84   | 89  | 88   | *(   |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Fluid Use Dom.   | 2   | 2020 | 2   | 2083 | 2   | 2116 | *(   |
| Consum.**          | 020 |      | 083 |      | 100 |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Factory Use      | 8   | 8273 | 8   | 8265 | 8   | 8049 | *(   |
| Consum.**          | 273 |      | 260 |      | 563 |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Feed Use Dom.    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Consum.**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.       | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
| Consumption**      | 293 | 0293 | 343 | 0348 | 663 | 0165 | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL            | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | 10  | 1    | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**     | 379 | 0379 | 430 | 0432 | 752 | 0253 | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imp. from U.S.**   |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exp. to U.S.**     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Cheese       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                     | 4** | ed** | 5** | te** | 6** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                     | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                     | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                     | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                     | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                     | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                     |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year       |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**             |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 | MM/Y |
|                     |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 55  | 55   | 51  | 51   | 26  | 26   | *(   |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 389 | 389  | 376 | 375  | 395 | 341  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 49  | 49   | 51  | 50   | 52  | 52   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 49  | 49   | 51  | 50   | 52  | 52   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 493 | 493  | 478 | 476  | 473 | 419  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 212 | 212  | 227 | 227  | 228 | 195  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 212 | 212  | 227 | 227  | 228 | 195  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Human Dom.        | 230 | 230  | 225 | 223  | 225 | 210  | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Use,        | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Losses**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Dom.        | 230 | 230  | 225 | 223  | 225 | 210  | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 442 | 442  | 452 | 450  | 453 | 405  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 51  | 51   | 26  | 26   | 20  | 14   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 493 | 493  | 478 | 476  | 473 | 419  | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 10  | 10   | 12  | 12   | 12  | 12   | *(   |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Butter       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                     | 4** | ed** | 5** | te** | 6** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                     | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                     | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                     | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                     | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                     | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                     |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year       |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**             |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 | MM/Y |
|                     |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 2   | 2    | 8   | 8    | 2   | 14   | *(   |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 132 | 132  | 131 | 131  | 130 | 132  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 9   | 9    | 10  | 10   | 11  | 11   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 9   | 9    | 10  | 10   | 11  | 11   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 143 | 143  | 149 | 149  | 143 | 157  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 75  | 75   | 88  | 70   | 83  | 75   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 75  | 75   | 88  | 70   | 83  | 75   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic          | 60  | 60   | 59  | 65   | 58  | 66   | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 135 | 135  | 147 | 135  | 141 | 141  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 8   | 8    | 2   | 14   | 2   | 16   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 143 | 143  | 149 | 149  | 143 | 157  | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 2   | 2    | 2   | 2    | 2   | 2    | *(   |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Dry Whole    |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Milk Powder         |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                     | 4** | ed** | 5** | te** | 6** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                     | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                     | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                     | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                     | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                     | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                     |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year       |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**             |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 | MM/Y |
|                     |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 25  | 25   | 28  | 28   | 44  | 46   | *(   |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 187 | 187  | 187 | 189  | 195 | 180  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 12  | 12   | 15  | 15   | 15  | 15   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 12  | 12   | 15  | 15   | 15  | 15   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 224 | 224  | 230 | 232  | 254 | 241  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 173 | 173  | 161 | 161  | 185 | 170  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 173 | 173  | 161 | 161  | 185 | 170  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Human Dom.        | 23  | 23   | 25  | 25   | 27  | 27   | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Use,        | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Losses**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Dom.        | 23  | 23   | 25  | 25   | 27  | 27   | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 196 | 196  | 186 | 186  | 212 | 197  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 28  | 28   | 44  | 46   | 42  | 44   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 224 | 224  | 230 | 232  | 254 | 241  | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Milk, Nonfat |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dry                 |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                     | 4** | ed** | 5** | te** | 6** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                     | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                     | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                     | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                     | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                     | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                     |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year       |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**             |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 |     | 7/20 | MM/Y |
|                     |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YYY* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 7   | 7    | 5   | 5    | 4   | 19   | *(   |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 203 | 203  | 189 | 206  | 190 | 216  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 2   | 2    | 4   | 2    | 4   | 4    | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 2   | 2    | 4   | 2    | 4   | 4    | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 212 | 212  | 198 | 213  | 198 | 239  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 187 | 187  | 174 | 174  | 173 | 204  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 187 | 187  | 174 | 174  | 173 | 204  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Human Dom.        | 20  | 20   | 20  | 20   | 20  | 20   | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Use,        | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| Losses**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Dom.        | 20  | 20   | 20  | 20   | 20  | 20   | *(   |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 207 | 207  | 194 | 194  | 193 | 224  | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 5   | 5    | 4   | 19   | 5   | 15   | *(   |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 212 | 212  | 198 | 213  | 198 | 239  | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | *(   |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)* |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+