Tropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Marie

(EP142008)

1-6 October 2008

Stacy R. Stewart

National Hurricane Center

16 November 2008

(updated to correct tables)

Marie was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)
that remained over water during its entire lifetime and did not threaten
any land areas.

a.  Synoptic History

    Marie originated from a tropical wave that emerged from the west
    coast of Africa on 6 September 2008. The wave moved quickly westward
    with little or no associated convection until it reached Central
    America about two weeks later. On 24 September when the wave emerged
    over the eastern North Pacific, a few weak bands of convection
    finally developed. However, this system showed no signs of having a
    closed surface circulation until 28 September when the system was
    located about 300 n mi south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The low pressure
    system moved west-northwestward at about 10 kt for the next few days
    and gradually acquired enough convective organization to be
    classified as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E at 0600 UTC 1 October
    about 510 n mi southwest of the southern tip of Baja California,
    Mexico. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is
    given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs.
    2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are
    listed in Table 1[^1].

    After becoming a tropical cyclone, the system continued its
    west-northwestward motion for the next 24 h and quickly strengthened
    into Tropical Storm Marie at 1200 UTC that same day. The intensity
    leveled off at an estimated 45 kt for the ensuing 24 h. A second
    significant intensification phase of 25 kt in 24 h occurred between
    0000 UTC 3 October and 0000 UTC 4 October, during which time Marie
    reached hurricane status by 1800 UTC 3 October about 755 n mi
    west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Fig. 4).

    Marie's status as a hurricane was relatively short-lived even though
    the upper-level vertical wind shear conditions were quite favorable
    for strengthening to occur. By 1200 UTC 4 October, a steady
    weakening trend was initiated as Marie turned westward and began
    moving slowly over lower sea-surface temperatures, below 26^o^ C,
    and also into a more stable atmospheric environment. Marie weakened
    to a tropical storm late on 4 October, became a depression at 1200
    UTC 6 October, and degenerated into a non-convective low pressure
    system 12 h later when the cyclone was located about 860 n mi
    west-southwest of Baja California.

    After losing its deep vertical structure, the remnant low lingered
    in the same general area for about 24 h before turning to the
    southwest on 7 October. Over the course of the next 12 days, Marie's
    tenacious remnant circulation sped up and slowed down, and made a
    couple of small, tight loops while moving in a direction between
    southwest and west-southwest. Other than a few brief periods with
    deep convection, the remnant low remained devoid of any convective
    organization due to unfavorable upper-level shear conditions. On 19
    October, the system was finally absorbed into the eastern North
    Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) about 1050 n mi
    east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Hurricane Marie (Figs. 2 and 3) include
    satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
    Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite
    Analysis Branch (SAB). Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting
    satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the
    NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
    satellites, among others, were also useful in tracking Marie.

    There was only one ship that reported tropical storm force winds
    associated with Marie. At 0600 UTC 5 October, the ship **Jo Spruce**
    (call sign PFAS) located about 70 n mi due north of the center of
    Marie reported a sustained easterly wind of 35 kt and a pressure of
    1009.0 mb.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with
    Hurricane Marie.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The possible genesis of Marie was first mentioned in the Tropical
    Weather Outlook (TWO) beginning at 1800 UTC 29 September. The
    possibility of tropical cyclone formation was included in the TWO
    issued at 0000 UTC 1 October, only 6 h prior to genesis. Likewise,
    the experimental genesis forecast probability did not reach the high
    category (\> 50%) until just 6 h prior to formation.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 2. Average official track errors for Marie were 29,
    46, 74, 106, 169, 215, and 182 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged
    from 21 at 12 h to only 3 at 120 h. These errors are lower than the
    average long-term official track errors from 12 h to 36 h, greater
    than average at 48, 72, and 96 h, and lower than average at 120 h
    (Table 2). The NHC official track forecasts (OFCL) generally
    outperformed all available model guidance except for the GFDI, AEMI,
    and EMXI models, and the model consensus, TVCN. The EMXI model
    performed exceptionally well with Marie and had track errors that
    were about 50 percent those of OFCL.

    Average official intensity errors were 5, 10, 12, 12, 10, 6, and 7
    kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts,
    respectively. For comparison, the average long-term official
    intensity errors are 6, 10, 14, 16, 19, 19, and 19 kt, respectively
    (Table 3). Although the official intensity forecasts were better
    than average at all forecast times, the same top-performing track
    models -- GFDI, AEMI, EMXI, and TVCN -- also outperformed the OFCL
    intensity forecasts.

No tropical cyclone watches or warnings were associated with Marie.

Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Marie, 1-6 October 2008.

+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| Date/Time  | La     | Lo      | Pr     | Wind | Stage             |
|            | titude | ngitude | essure | S    |                   |
| (UTC)      |        |         |        | peed |                   |
|            | \(N\)  | \(W\)   | (mb)   |      |                   |
|            |        |         |        | (kt) |                   |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 01 / 0600  | 16.3   | 115.4   | 1006   | 30   | tropical          |
|            |        |         |        |      | depression        |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 01 / 1200  | 17.0   | 116.1   | 1000   | 45   | tropical storm    |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 01 / 1800  | 17.6   | 117.5   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 02 / 0000  | 17.8   | 118.6   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 02 / 0600  | 17.9   | 119.3   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 02 / 1200  | 17.9   | 119.9   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 02 / 1800  | 17.8   | 120.6   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 03 / 0000  | 17.7   | 121.1   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 03 / 0600  | 17.6   | 121.6   | 997    | 50   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 03 / 1200  | 17.6   | 121.9   | 990    | 60   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 03 / 1800  | 17.6   | 122.1   | 987    | 65   | hurricane         |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 04 / 0000  | 17.7   | 122.2   | 984    | 70   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 04 / 0600  | 17.9   | 122.2   | 984    | 70   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 04 / 1200  | 18.1   | 122.1   | 987    | 65   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 04 / 1800  | 18.3   | 122.1   | 992    | 55   | tropical storm    |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 05 / 0000  | 18.5   | 122.1   | 1000   | 45   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 05 / 0600  | 18.8   | 121.9   | 1001   | 40   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 05 / 1200  | 18.8   | 122.2   | 1001   | 40   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 05 / 1800  | 18.7   | 122.5   | 1004   | 35   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 06 / 0000  | 18.7   | 122.8   | 1004   | 35   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 06 / 0600  | 18.7   | 123.1   | 1004   | 35   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 06 / 1200  | 18.7   | 123.3   | 1006   | 30   | tropical          |
|            |        |         |        |      | depression        |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 06 / 1800  | 18.9   | 123.6   | 1007   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 07 / 0000  | 18.8   | 124.1   | 1007   | 25   | remnant low       |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 07 / 0600  | 18.4   | 124.5   | 1007   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 07 / 1200  | 18.1   | 125.0   | 1008   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 07 / 1800  | 17.7   | 125.5   | 1008   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 08 / 0000  | 17.5   | 125.8   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 08 / 0600  | 17.3   | 126.3   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 08 / 1200  | 17.1   | 126.7   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 08 / 1800  | 16.9   | 127.1   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 09 / 0000  | 16.6   | 127.3   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 09 / 0600  | 16.3   | 127.5   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 09 / 1200  | 16.0   | 127.5   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 09 / 1800  | 15.6   | 127.3   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 10 / 0000  | 15.2   | 127.0   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 10 / 0600  | 14.7   | 126.5   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 10 / 1200  | 14.2   | 125.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 10 / 1800  | 13.7   | 125.4   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 11 / 0000  | 13.1   | 124.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 11 / 0600  | 12.5   | 124.3   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 11 / 1200  | 12.2   | 124.0   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 11 / 1800  | 12.0   | 123.5   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 12 / 0000  | 12.0   | 123.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 12 / 0600  | 11.7   | 122.5   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 12 / 1200  | 11.5   | 122.5   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 12 / 1800  | 11.6   | 122.7   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 13 / 0000  | 11.7   | 123.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 13 / 0600  | 11.8   | 123.2   | 1011   | 15   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 13 / 1200  | 11.8   | 123.4   | 1011   | 15   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 13 / 1800  | 11.8   | 123.7   | 1011   | 15   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 14 / 0000  | 11.7   | 124.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 14 / 0600  | 11.5   | 124.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 14 / 1200  | 11.5   | 124.2   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 14 / 1800  | 11.5   | 124.5   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 15 / 0000  | 11.5   | 124.8   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 15 / 0600  | 11.3   | 125.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 15 / 1200  | 11.1   | 125.4   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 15 / 1800  | 11.0   | 126.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 16 / 0000  | 11.0   | 126.6   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 16 / 0600  | 10.9   | 127.2   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 16 / 1200  | 10.9   | 127.8   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 16 / 1800  | 10.9   | 128.4   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 17 / 0000  | 10.9   | 129.2   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 17 / 0600  | 11.0   | 130.0   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 17 / 1200  | 11.2   | 130.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 17 / 1800  | 11.2   | 131.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 18 / 0000  | 11.0   | 132.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 18 / 0600  | 10.9   | 133.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 18 / 1200  | 10.8   | 134.9   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 18 / 1800  | 10.7   | 136.0   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 19 / 0000  | 10.6   | 137.0   | 1009   | 25   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 19 / 0600  | 10.6   | 138.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 19 / 1200  | 10.6   | 139.0   | 1010   | 20   | \"                |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 19 / 1800  |        |         |        |      | absorbed into     |
|            |        |         |        |      | ITCZ              |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+
| 04 / 0000  | 17.7   | 122.2   | 984    | 70   | minimum pressure  |
+------------+--------+---------+--------+------+-------------------+

Table 2. Track forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane
Marie, 1-6

October 2008. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of
forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast
are shown in boldface type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Forecast  | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 29    | 61    | 98    | 128   | 152 ( | 224 ( | 808 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    |
|           | *28** | *40** | *63** | *88** | 132** | 197** | 180** |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 31    | 48    | *     | 116   | 224   | 318 ( | 318 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | *73** | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
|           |       |       | (17)  |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 37    | 56    | 79    | 110   | 193   | 293 ( | 349 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (10)  | 6)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | 217 ( | 233 ( |
|           | *28** | *39** | *56** | *69** | 140** | 7)    | 3)    |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 37    | 58    | 88    | 133   | 210   | 262 ( | 357 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 40    | 69    | 105   | 152   | 259 ( | 365 ( | 266 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EGRI      | 40    | 68    | 104   | 151   | 257 ( | 363 ( | 288 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    |
|           | *22** | *32** | *45** | *60** | *77** | *50** | 163** |
|           | (16)  | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  | ( 1)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 37    | 70    | 107   | 144   | 239   | 384 ( | 503 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 41    | 78    | 120   | 161   | 252   | 335 ( | 379 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 44    | 85    | 130   | 185   | 276   | 295 ( | 333 ( |
|           | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | 36    | 75    | 122   | 165   | 253   | 355 ( | 399 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | (10)  | 6)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TVCN      | *     | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | *     |
|           | *28** | *40** | *64** | *96** | 135** | 163** | *84** |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | *     | 46    | 74    | 114   | 201 ( | 287 ( |       |
|           | *27** | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 8)    | 4)    |       |
|           | (19)  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | 228 ( | 205 ( |
|           | *28** | *43** | *73** | 104** | 167** | 5)    | 1)    |
|           | (20)  | (18)  | (15)  | (14)  | (10)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 43    | 83    | 141   | 189   | 310   | 407 ( | 365 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 29    | 46    | 74    | 106   | 169   | 215 ( | 182 ( |
|           | (21)  | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 31.9  | 55.1  | 77.4  | 97.9  | 136.2 | 180.1 | 226.1 |
| Official  |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | \(1   | \(1   | \(    | \(    | \(    | \(    | \(    |
| (         | 282\) | 129\) | 979\) | 849\) | 620\) | 439\) | 293\) |
| 2003-2007 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 3. Intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Hurricane Marie, 1-6

October 2008. Forecast errors (kt) are followed by the number of
forecasts in parentheses.

Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface
type.

+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Fo     | For   |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| recast | ecast |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| Tec    | P     |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| hnique | eriod |        |        |        |       |       |       |
|        | (h)   |        |        |        |       |       |       |
+========+=======+========+========+========+=======+=======+=======+
|        | 12    | 24     | 36     | 48     | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| OCD5   | 6.7   | 11.8   | 15.4   | 17.2   | 12.0  | **    | 6.7 ( |
|        | (21)  | (19)   | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 5.0** | 3)    |
|        |       |        |        |        |       | ( 7)  |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI   | 6.3   | 11.4   | 14.4   | 16.7   | 13.5  | **    | **    |
|        | (21)  | (19)   | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 5.4** | 2.3** |
|        |       |        |        |        |       | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI   | 6.1   | *      | 13.3   | 17.1   | 14.1  | 13.6  | 18.7  |
|        | (21)  | *8.7** | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |
|        |       | (19)   |        |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| LGEM   | 6.7   | 11.5   | 14.8   | 14.7   | 11.7  | **    | 7.0 ( |
|        | (21)  | (19)   | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 5.4** | 3)    |
|        |       |        |        |        |       | ( 7)  |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP   | 6.3   | 10.6   | 12.6   | 13.1   | 13.2  | 8.0 ( | 13.7  |
|        | (21)  | (19)   | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 7)    | ( 3)  |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE   | 5.8   | 10.2   | 13.7   | 15.5   | 10.2  | **    | **    |
|        | (20)  | (18)   | (15)   | (14)   | (10)  | 4.2** | 4.0** |
|        |       |        |        |        |       | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON   | 6.0   | *      | 12.3   | 15.3   | 12.7  | 6.6 ( | 10.3  |
|        | (21)  | *9.7** | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 7)    | ( 3)  |
|        |       | (19)   |        |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL   | 5.2   | 10.0   | 11.8   | 12.0   | 10.0  | 5.7 ( | 6.7 ( |
|        | (21)  | (19)   | (17)   | (15)   | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC    | 6.2   | 10.4   | 13.9   | 16.3   | 18.7  | 19.2  | 19.1  |
| Of     |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| ficial | \(1   | \(     | \      | \      | \(    | \(    | \(    |
|        | 282\) | 1129\) | (979\) | (848\) | 620\) | 439\) | 293\) |
| (200   |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| 3-2007 |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| mean)  |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="7.875694444444444in"
height="6.094444444444444in"}

Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Marie, 1-6 October 2008.
Track positions during the remnant low stage

are based on analyses from the NOAA Tropical Prediction Center's
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

![](media/image2.wmf){width="8.5in" height="5.89375in"}

Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained
surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Marie,

1-6 October 2008. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="8.475694444444445in"
height="5.879166666666666in"}

Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central
pressure curve for Hurricane Marie,

1-6 October 2008. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.

![](media/image4.png){width="7.003472222222222in"
height="5.6722222222222225in"}

Figure 4. A 1447 UTC 3 October 2008 SSM/I 85 GHZ Color image depicting
the closed eyewall

of Hurricane Marie located near 17.6^o^ N 122.0^o^ W (image courtesy of
the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical

Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA).

[^1]: A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii,
    can be found on line at <ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf>. Data for the
    current year's storms are located in the *btk* directory, while
    previous years' data are located in the *archive* directory.