#### Weather and Emergency Management

#### Kent M. McGregor

Associate Professor

Department of Geography

University of North Texas

Denton, TX 76203 - 5279

e-mail: mcgregor@unt.edu

#### ABSTRACT

#### The science of meteorology is deeply intertwined with the process of emergency management. Weather phenomena are the cause of many disaster events such as tornadoes and hurricanes and a factor in many others. Weather can also affect the way assistance is provided during or after an emergency. Since time to prepare is vital, much of meteorology is concerned with forecasting and issuing. This paper addresses the role of meteorology in tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, droughts, heat waves, wildfires and blizzards. The basic meteorological processes causing such disasters are discussed and selected examples are included from both the U.S. and other parts of the world. Finally, the future poses its own special brand of weather hazards due to the uncertainties and scale of global warming and consequent changes in global climate patterns. 

**Introduction**

The relationship between weather and emergency management is fundamental
yet complex. Weather causes many disasters that require an emergency
response. Indeed meteorological processes determine the extent of the
destruction to life and property. Meteorologists both forecast the
impending event and survey the scene afterward to determine the
magnitude of the atmospheric forces involved. This chapter is a survey
of such relationships in the context of the most common types of
disasters. This paper consists of five principal sections. The first
section is a survey of disasters that are caused or influenced by
meteorological processes. This includes the duration of the event, the
duration of the consequences, and the scale of the impact. These are
important considerations in determining the type of emergency response
and the allocation of resources. The second section covers the process
of developing a weather forecast and disseminating the result.
Forecasting is the most common application of atmospheric science. Who
gets the forecast when and in what way are fundamental questions in the
decision making process. The third section is a primer on basic
meteorology. To understand how extreme weather events develop, one must
understand basic atmospheric processes. These include high and low
pressure, winds, air masses, storms, cyclonic systems and related
features on a weather map. The fourth section is the majority of the
paper and reviews the major types of weather events that might require
an emergency response. These are tornadoes, hurricanes, floods,
droughts, heat waves, wild fires, and blizzards. It includes a
discussion of the basic atmospheric processes causing each event with
selected examples. The examples come from both the U.S. and countries
around the world. The international perspective is required for a better
understanding of what kind of emergency response is possible. Actions
that could be taken easily in a modern country like the U.S. simply
might not be possible in the developing nations. Finally, the fifth
section is a discussion of current trends in atmospheric science that
will continue into the future and have implications for the management
of emergencies. These include continual development of models and
supporting observation networks. Extreme weather events are increasing
viewed in the larger context of global atmospheric and oceanic forces.
The best known of these is global warming. However, many regional
climate cycles or oscillations have a pronounced affect on weather and
extreme weather events. The El Niño phenomena is the best known of these
oscillations. It affects not only the tropical Pacific, but places far
away through what are called \"teleconnections\".

**Types of Weather Related Disasters**

Throughout history, weather events, of various kinds, have posed a
hazard to human activities. Meteorological forces constitute both a
direct hazard such as storms and consequent flooding, and indirect
(associated) hazards such as the drift of smoke, ash and noxious fumes
from an erupting volcano. Table 1 summarizes many of these weather
related hazards. Of the twenty (20) items in this list, twelve (12) are
caused directly by atmospheric forces, and weather is a factor in the
remaining eight (8).

Table 1. Weather Related Disasters

  ---------------- ------------ ----------- -------- --------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ------ -- -----
                   Time         Time                 Spatial             Number             Caused by           

                   Developing   Occurring            Extent              of                 Weather             
                                                                         People                                 

  Tornado          fast                     short              small              small               X         

  Hail             fast                     short              small              small               X         

  Wind             fast                     short              small to           small               X         
                                                               medium                                           

  Flood            slow to fast             short to           medium to          medium              X         
                                            long               large                                            

  Blizzard         medium                   medium             large              medium to           X         
                                            to long                               large                         

  Hurricane        medium                   medium             medium to          medium to           X         
                                            to long            large              large                         

  Air pollution    medium                   medium             medium to          medium to                     
                                            to long            large              large                         

  Hazardous spills fast                     short to           small to           small to                      
                                            long               medium             medium                        

  Water pollution  slow to fast             medium             small to           medium                        
                                            to long            medium                                           

  Fire spread      fast                     short to           small              small to                      
                                            long                                  medium                        

  Disease          slow to fast             long               medium to          large                         
                                                               large                                            

  Heat wave        medium                   medium             medium to          large               X         
                                            to long            large                                            

  Cold wave        medium                   medium             medium to          large               X         
                                            to long            large                                            

  Drought          slow to fast             long               large              large               X         

  Volcano          medium to                short to           small to           medium                        
                   fast                     medium             medium                                           

  Landslide        fast                     short              small              small                         

  Transportation   fast                     short              small              small                         

  Microburst.      fast                     short              small              small               X         

  Fog              fast                     short              small to           small to            X         
                                                               medium             medium                        

  Frost            fast                     short              small to           small to            X         
                                                               medium             medium                        

                                                                                                                
  ---------------- ------------ ----------- -------- --------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ------ -- -----

According to Burton, Kates and White (1993), approximately 90 percent of
the world\'s natural disasters originate in four hazard types: floods
(40%), hurricanes (20%), earthquakes (15%) and drought (15%). Floods are
the most frequent and do the largest proportion of property damage.
Droughts are the most difficult to measure in extent, property damage,
and death toll.

#### Important Factors to Consider

> 1\. Time for event to develop and duration of occurrence. All of these
> events vary widely in time developing and length of time occurring. A
> tornado develops quickly and seldom lasts more than a few minutes. In
> contrast, droughts are the slowest developing weather hazard, but also
> the longest lasting. Flash floods can develop in a few minutes and be
> over in a few minutes, but the damage has been done.
>
> 2\. Spatial extent or size of area impacted. Such events vary
> dramatically in their spatial extent. A microburst might be the most
> localized of weather related events while droughts, floods and
> pestilence can affect a large region of the globe. A lightning strike
> might be as localized as an event can get, and, yet set off wild fires
> destroying thousands of acres.
>
> 3\. Potential number of people impacted. There are dramatic
> differences in the number of people that might be affected. A tornado
> may be a localized, short-lived event, but, it can affect thousands of
> people if it hits a city. A spill of hazardous materials might affect
> a few people in a nearby neighborhood, or in the case of the Bhopal,
> India, disaster, it can impact thousands. This disaster was
> instructive because it was fairly localized, yet, because of the dense
> population, it affected literally thousands of people.
>
> 4\. When weather is not a direct cause, how might it impact or
> aggravate the event? Many types of disasters are not caused directly
> by weather; they are the result of human activity. Weather later
> becomes a factor after the disaster has occurred. A classic example is
> the melt down of the nuclear reactor in Chernobyl, Ukraine. Weather
> became a factor as radioactive gasses escaped into the atmosphere.
> These toxic gasses were carried by the winds and the rate of dispersal
> was determined by wind speed and direction and other atmospheric
> factors that determined the rate of mixing. As a result, Finland some
> 1000 miles away was heavily impacted.
>
> 5\. The weather categories are not mutually exclusive. In fact, many
> types of emergencies will be accompanied or lead to others (like
> famine leads to disease). Some improbable combinations also can and do
> occur. During one of the worst floods in its history, the Red River
> flooded Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota. In Grand Forks, the
> natural gas lines broke; fires broke out and the downtown burned while
> still submerged in water.

Perhaps the slowest developing disasters are drought and famine. These
are not typical emergency management situations initially because they
develop slowly, perhaps over many months or even years, but they have
the potential to impact the greatest area and the greatest number of
people. As a result, they can require massive relief efforts. Indeed,
mass starvation due to political strife is and continues to be one of
the legacies of the 20^th^ Century and continues today. The four
horsemen of the apocalypse are still very much with us even in these
post-modern times.

**Forecasting and Meteorological Science**

Since so many disasters are caused by weather, probably the greatest
contribution of atmospheric science is developing the weather forecast
and issuing the warning. For example, the meteorologist is not only
concerned with forecasting a developing severe weather situation, but
also the location, size, and intensity of a tornadoes that might also
form. He/she would also forecast the path the tornado might take given
the parent thunderstorm characteristics and the prevailing steering
winds. Could the tornado strike a heavily populated area? After the
event, the meteorologist might look at additional data to determine the
accuracy of previous estimates of wind speed for example.

Another important concern is simply gaining a better understanding of
how the atmosphere works. For example, there are still many questions
about the exact environment in which a tornado develops (Hamill, *et.
al.*, 2005). Indeed, one of the mysteries in atmospheric science is why,
given what seem to be two identical environments, one will develop a
tornado and the other will not. Improving the basic understanding of
atmospheric processes would improve not only the forecast lead-time but
also the estimated impact of specific weather events. This is true for
all events, drought or flood, hurricane or tornado, hail or fire. In the
U.S. the various agencies in the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) are responsible for both forecasts and basic
research including the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National
Hurricane Center (NHC). Private meteorological companies also provide
specialized forecasts to their clients.

With any forecast or warning of an impending extreme weather event,
there are always questions, of who gets the information, how quickly,
and what is the best course of action to recommend. A good example is
when to recommend evacuation in the face of an impending weather event.
Generally, evacuation is more risky than seeking immediate shelter.
However, in the case of the Oklahoma City tornado, the National Weather
Service advised people to leave their homes and businesses to get out of
the path of the oncoming tornado while there was still time. Such action
undoubtedly saved many lives, however, there are uncertainties with this
strategy. The tornado could change paths or speed of movement. Traffic
or debris could slow or stop the evacuation.

The media play a critical role in transmitting such warnings and related
information to the public. The National Weather Service can issue a
perfect forecast but it must be successfully relayed to the individual
citizen in time for them to decide on the best course of action in their
individual case. There are a variety of ways in which this transmittal
of warnings might be accomplished. The electronic media is perhaps the
best example, but there are others. The inexpensive weather radios sound
a special tone when activated by a signal on a special NWS frequency.
Automated dialing systems for telephone notification are becoming more
common. Internet notification is available as an option. As always,
people will call friends and relatives who might be in jeopardy from
severe weather.

Obviously since weather is a cause or a factor in nearly all types of
natural disasters, there is a tremendous amount of overlap with many
other disciplines. Perhaps the strongest links are to government
officials at all levels who must decide how best to respond to an
emergency situation caused by or affected by weather. Links to the media
are especially important in disseminating weather watches and warnings
to the public. There are strong connections with civil engineers and
hydrologists who design flood control works and predict how floods might
affect a particular community. In the case of drought, there is
interaction with agricultural specialists, and local water managers. In
the case of hurricanes, there might be interaction with coastal
geomorphologists.

**Meteorology: a Primer**

Atmospheric pressure is the most fundamental concept in atmospheric
science. A weather map is essentially a map of atmospheric pressure
annotated with additional information. Small changes in atmospheric
pressure cause large changes in the weather. If there is more air than
usual at a given place, it is called high pressure. If there is less air
than usual, it is called low pressure. At its simplest, air moves from
high pressure areas to low pressure areas to equalize the pressure
differences; these are called winds. Once winds start moving, they may
be deflected from their original direction due to the earth\'s rotation.
This is called the Coriolis force and is responsible for the pattern of
rotation that winds develop around pressure cells. Winds move out of a
high pressure cell and into a low pressure cell; however, because of the
Coriolis force, they tend to spiral into a low and out of a high.

Pressure cells not only induce horizontal motions in air (winds), they
also induce vertical motions. These vertical motions are critical in
determining what the weather does. Low pressure causes upward
(ascending) vertical motion and is associated with clouds,
precipitation, and storms in general. High pressure causes downward
(descending) vertical motion and is responsible for clear skies. High
pressure is a bit difficult to understand because it can occur with both
extremes of hot and cold temperatures, however the skies are clear in
both cases.

Thus, storms are organized low pressure cells. Hurricanes, tornadoes,
blizzards, heavy rainfall are all low pressure cells. The rising and
cooling air causes the moisture to condense and fall to the surface.
Storms are very effective at wringing moisture out of the atmosphere. In
contrast, high pressure causes droughts and heat waves. As air descends
toward the earth\'s surface, it heats up. When a large or strong high
pressure cell becomes anchored in place during the summer, the
combination of no rainfall, clear skies, descending and warming air can
cause a heat wave. If this situation continues for weeks or months, it
can cause a drought.

In the mid-latitudes, there is a special type of low pressure system
called a cyclonic storm. Cyclones are displayed on the weather map with
a large **L**. There is usually a cold front and a warm front connected
to the center of low pressure. These fronts are the boundaries between
tropical and polar air masses. Also in the mid-latitudes are areas of
high pressure called anticyclones. These are displayed on the weather
map with a large **H**. Both cyclones and anticyclones migrate across
the U. S. from west to east pushed along by high altitude winds called
the westerlies. The jet stream is the fastest part or core of the
westerlies. The pattern or configuration of the westerlies and the jet
stream determines the type of weather. Where the westerly winds make a
northward bend, they create an area of high pressure aloft called a
ridge. This ridge, in turn, makes an anticyclone at the surface. Where
the westerly winds make a southward bend, they create an area of low
pressure aloft called a trough. This trough, in turn, makes a cyclone at
the surface. The alternating sequence of low pressure and high pressure,
cyclone and anticyclone, establishes the changeable pattern of weather
associated with mid-latitude locations.

In many parts of the world, the weather is heavily influenced by
climatic cycles called oscillations. The best known of these is the El
Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. The
very intense 1997-98 ENSO event resulted in devastation around the
world, and the resulting media coverage sharply focused public attention
on the phenomenon. When sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above normal
in the eastern, equatorial Pacific, it is called an El Niño event. When
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below normal in the eastern,
equatorial Pacific, it is called an La Niña event. These events cause
profound changes in the typical weather patterns around the tropical
Pacific but their impact extends to many other parts of the world
through what are termed \"teleconnections\". For example, El Niño events
are associated with enhanced precipitation across the southern tier of
the U.S. in spring and winter months. Other oscillations, such as the
North American Oscillation (NAO) seem to have impacts more localized to
a particular region of the planet. A better understanding of such
oscillations will, hopefully, lead to better predictions of long-term
climate variability. Glantz (2001) reviewed the ENSO phenomena including
the history, growth in scientific understanding, monitoring activity and
significance for the future.

#### Tornadoes

The central part of the United States has the highest incidence of
tornadoes in the world. There, all of the ingredients are present like
nowhere else in the world. Central Oklahoma is ground zero. At its
simplest, tornadoes are created by the clash of air masses, but the
pattern of upper air winds (westerlies) is equally important. In the
central U. S., warm, humid tropical air is brought into contact with
cool, dry polar air. These air masses with such vastly different
characteristics are pulled together by the low pressure cells (cyclonic
storm systems). Fronts are the boundaries between these air masses and
thunderstorms often erupt along the fronts. Another important ingredient
is called the \"cap\". This is a flow or layer of warmer, drier air
pulled in at the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the southwest. This
layer caps weaker convection cells and prevents the air from rising
further. However, when a stronger convection manages to penetrate or
break the cap, it can continue to rise very quickly. The analogy is to
the hole in the dam. Once the dam has been breached, all of the water
comes rushing through pushed by the pressure behind. Once the cap
breaks, all of the heat and humidity rushes upward resulting in a
monster thunderstorm. Lastly, the dynamics of the jet stream (the
fastest part or core of the westerly winds) are important. The
interaction of winds coming in from different directions and at
different speeds creates shear forces in the atmosphere. This can, in
turn, create a horizontal \"tube\" of air that rotates. For reasons that
are not completely understood, upward convection can bend or tilt this
tube to a vertical position. This is called the mesocyclone and, when
the environment is just right, some of the rotation is translated into a
smaller and much faster spinning vortex called a tornado funnel. The
fastest wind speeds on earth occur in the strongest tornados probably a
bit more than 300 mph. Table 2 shows the Fujita Scale of tornado winds
and resulting damage.

Table 2. Fujita Scale of Tornado Winds and Damage

Fujita Scale Wind Speed Damage

> mph (km/hr)

F0 40-73 (68-118) Light

F1 74-112 (119-181) Moderate

F2 113-157 (182-253) Considerable

F3 158-206 (254-332) Severe

F4 207-260 (333-419) Devastating

F5 261-318 (420-512) Incredible

Doswell, Moller and Brooks (1999) summarized the history and progress of
storm spotters as part of the National Weather System procedures for
forecasting tornadoes. They especially highlight the difficulty in
disseminating warning information in a timely fashion so that the public
has time to respond. They include an excellent review of the training
that was offered to storm spotters over approximately a 50 year span.
The authors claim the reduction in tornado fatalities is due, in part,
to the efforts of the storm spotters.

Perhaps the most highly developed forecasting and warning system for
tornadoes and related severe weather is in Oklahoma. Andra *et. al.*
(2002) evaluated the decision process and lead times in issuing the
warnings for the strong tornadoes that developed on the 3^rd^ of May,
1999. The lead-time for a warning issued by a human forecaster based on
the mass of evidence was a median of 23 minutes. In contrast, the
lead-time for a warning based on a tornado detection algorithm was 2
minutes for detection of the first tornado. While this might seem like
an important difference in lead times, the algorithms did alert the
meteorologist that a developing storm had potential to produce a tornado
well before it actually did.

Morris *et. al*.(2002) discussed the use of a system designed to get
real time, detailed weather information to local emergency management
authorities. The authors point out that, even in the information age,
there is a big gap between what the National Weather Service does in
issuing a warning and the ability of local authorities to access the
detailed weather information necessary to implement their decisions. On
May 3, 1999, the day of the massive Oklahoma City Tornado, over 25,000
files were shared. These were primarily real-time Weather Service Radar
images that local managers used to make decisions affecting their
jurisdiction. As a result local officials could be proactive rather than
reactive in their approach to severe weather. A good example was what
happened in Logan County during the outbreak. After one tornado
destroyed the small town of Mulhall, rescue workers set up a command
center to manage the emergency operations. Soon, these workers were
advised to move their command center away from the path of additional
on-coming tornadoes. In fact, they had to move their command center
twice. The transfer of information made possible success stories that
did not make the national news. The OK-FIRST system has won awards for
technology (transfer) to local government. Perhaps, however, this could
only be done in Oklahoma because of the very real concern the residents
for severe weather, and the location of the National Weather Service
facilities (Storm Prediction Center) in Norman Oklahoma. An additional
factor is the success of the Oklahoma Mesoscale Network which gathers
observations from every county in the state and makes them available in
near real time through the internet.

Hammer (2002) evaluated the response to warnings during the Oklahoma
City tornado and the resulting injury rates. Nearly half of the people
fled their homes. One of the interesting findings was that no one was
injured who fled either by foot or by vehicle. Most received a warning
through the media although phones were also important. Golden (2000)
reviewed the problem of public dissemination of tornado warnings and
found that the area that needed improvement the most was not in the
forecast but in communicating the warning effectively to the public so
they had time to decide what action to take.

In contrast, during the 1987 Saragosa, Texas tornado, the warning system
failed leaving the residents with little or no time to react (Aguirre,
1991). Saragosa is a small, remote, mostly Spanish-speaking community in
west Texas. Many of the residents, if they were watching television, if
they had a television, were tuned to a Spanish language cable channel.
Typically, cable channels do not interrupt programming or scroll a
weather warning across the screen. Since the tornado developed quickly,
it was almost in the town before any one received the warning.

In spite of the continued progress in the communication of weather
warnings and the public\'s response, there is still room for
improvement. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) developed
the StormReady program to help local communities develop preparedness
plans for all types of severe weather. This is a grassroots program
providing guidelines to help communities improve their emergency
management operations. They are required to establish an emergency
management center with 24 hour monitoring and has more than one way to
receive severe weather warnings and also notify the public. They must
have some way to monitor local weather conditions. They must increase
public readiness through presentations to the community and training of
storm spotters. Lastly, they must practice implementing their plans with
periodic emergency exercises. Over a thousand communities nationwide
have met these requirements and are active participants in the program.

**Hurricanes**

Hurricanes develop over warm tropical waters. Sea surface temperatures
must be at least 27° C. or about 85° F. Indeed the warm tropical waters
are the principal source of energy for the hurricane. If the winds
higher up (aloft) are light, the atmosphere above becomes saturated with
humidity. All that is needed is a low pressure area called an easterly
wave to initiate development and intensification of the storm. Easterly
waves are pushed along from east to west by the tropical trade winds.
The trade winds often curve northward (in the northern hemisphere), so
Atlantic hurricanes have struck New England and Pacific typhoons have
struck Japan.

Hurricanes have a unique combination of factors that make them
especially destructive. The minimum wind speed for a hurricane is 74
mph. This is approximately the threshold for causing some minor damage.
The very strongest hurricanes have wind speeds approaching 200 mph that
will result in nearly total destruction of buildings. In addition, the
torrential rains cause flooding and additional damage. As bad as the
winds and rain are with hurricanes, they have one final especially
devastating element called the storm surge. This is an artificial rise
in sea level that increases the scale of flooding along the coasts. In
1969, Hurricane Camille hit the Mississippi coast with nearly 200 mph
winds and a 28 ft. storm surge. Table 3 shows the Saffir-Simpson Scale
of hurricane winds and damage.

Table 3. Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Damage

Category Wind Speed, mph (km/hr) Storm Surge Damage

1 74-95 (119-153) 4-5 ft. little structural

2 96-110 (154-177) 6-8 ft. minor structural

3 111-130 (178-209) 9-12 some structural

4 131-155 (210-249) 13-18 extensive structural

5 above 155 mph (249) \> 18 ft some complete

Sheets and Williams (2001) provide a good overview of the history of
Atlantic hurricanes including flying reconnaissance, attempted
modification and modeling. Diaz and Pulwarty (1997) brought together
experts from a wide rage of backgrounds to assess the socioeconomic
impacts of hurricanes. These ranged form climatologists to
representatives of the insurance industry.

Powell and Sim (2001) reviewed the accuracy of forecast on the timing
and location of hurricane landfall. Their analysis showed that an early
time bias of 1.5-2.5 hours for landfall of Atlantic Hurricanes. This has
not improved much in recent years probably to the \"least regret\"
strategy in the time prediction to account for unexpected storm
acceleration. Thus, hurricane warnings could be issued 12 hours earlier
(at 36 rather than 24 hours before landfall) without affecting the
accuracy of the prediction. However improving the accuracy of land-fall
predictions has been difficult due to a number of related factors. For
example, an important factor is the angle of the coast line relative to
the projected path of the hurricane. Positional forecast errors were
less for hurricanes in the Gulf (of Mexico) coast because they are
moving perpendicular to the coast line. In contrast, hurricanes striking
the Atlantic coast are generally moving more parallel to the coastline
resulting in a diagonal path that results in larger positional errors.
Position errors are 15-50% larger for parallel tracks than perpendicular
tracks. There are additional problems in defining just what landfall is
due to near misses and multiple strikes. Nevertheless, positional
accuracy is important in the use of associated damage models like (storm
inundation models). The errors in forecasting land-fall have to be low
enough for their results to be usefull. Obviously, the timing and
location of landfall are of paramount importance in evacuation planning.
Finally, the predictions of models can be improved, not so much by
improving the model per se\' but by gathering better observational data,
and assimilating that data more effectively into the present model.
Sorensen (2000) reported on the improvement forecasting and warning of
natural hazards. The progress has been uneven, but hurricanes showed the
most improvement.

Hurricane Andrew was the 3rd strongest hurricane ever to make landfall
in the United States during the 20^th^ Century. The result was one of
the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. Wakimoto and Black
(1994) analyzed the relationship of the damage caused by Hurricane
Andrew to the exact velocities in the eye wall. They concluded that the
first period of highest winds stripped the surface of trees and other
objects. This decreased the roughness of the surface and may have caused
the second period of high winds to attain higher velocities than they
would have obtained with a rougher surface to traverse. The winds
reached a Fujita scale of F3, about 150 mph.

Watson and Johnson (2004) reviewed the current state-of-the-art in
Hurricane loss estimation models. These models are very complicated
because they link meteorology with everything that affects the dollar
losses from hurricanes. Since these models are proprietary, the details
of their assumptions and calculations are difficult to determine.
However, these models suffer from any number of limitations common to
all meteorological models. For example, it is difficult to determine
exactly where wind speed was highest, how high it actually was, and how
long it was sustained. It is also difficult to estimate dollar losses
due to structural damage. It is also interesting to note that updated
information on the meteorological specifics of a given hurricane, like
Andrew, can noticeably change the damage estimates.

Pielke and Landsea (1999) explored the relationship of hurricane damages
in the U. S. to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena in the
Pacific Ocean. When sea surface temperatures are higher than normal in
the eastern, tropical Pacific, it is called an El Niño event. When sea
surface temperatures are lower than normal in the same region of the
Pacific, it is called a La Niña event. La Niña years are also years when
more hurricanes impact the U. S. In contrast fewer hurricanes occur
during El Niño years. Such relationships provide some degree of
predictability in the likelihood of a hurricane striking the U. S. in a
given year.

Given the rapid development of the coastal areas of the U.S., the
potential for hurricane damage increases each year; not because the
frequency is increasing, but because there simply more people and
structures along the coast each year. Having said that, given the four
hurricanes and two tropical storms that impacted Florida in 2004 and the
very active beginning to the season in 2005, the public seems to believe
that the frequency is increasing and this is caused by global warming
somehow. However, this is a short-term view, not a climatological fact.

Hurricanes have caused some of the worst natural disasters in history.
One of the worst was the Indian Ocean hurricane that hit Bangladesh in
1970. Bangladesh is the low-lying delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra River.
It is an agricultural region with a very high population density.
Consequently there was no way to escape to higher ground even if there
had been sufficient warning. Over 220,000 people died as well as an
approximately equal number of large and small farm animals (Burton,
Kates and White, 1993). While modern communications technology, like
cell phones, would greatly speed the dissemination of a hurricane
warning today, evacuation would still be a problem. The river delta
environment is as much water as land, and roads are few and easily
flooded.

**Floods**

Flooding can occur through a variety of meteorological processes
resulting in excessive rainfall. The classic situation in the U. S.
involves a winter with heavy snow accumulation that melts suddenly over
soils that are already saturated with moisture and accompanied by
persistent spring rains. The worst floods of the 20th century on the
Mississippi River occurred in 1927, 1973 and 1993. In all these cases,
the meteorological causes were nearly identical especially the pattern
of the upper level winds\--the westerlies (Figure 1.). The core of the
westerlies is the jet stream. It is not only the fastest part of the
westerlies but its precise configuration determines the exact location
of the boundaries between polar and tropical air masses. For example, in
the spring and summer of 1993, there was a southward bend, or trough, in
the jet stream over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains with cold,
Canadian air to the north. Meanwhile, the jet stream developed a
northward bend or ridge over the Northeastern U. S. and Southeastern
Canada. This allowed warm, humid tropical air masses to penetrate
northward as far as the Great Lakes. The pattern helped generate
cyclonic system after cyclonic system that moved across the Midwestern
states following the same path as the system before. The result was a
situation called \"training\" where a series of thunderstorms follow the
same track. The resulting rains just kept coming for months on end (Bell
and Janowiak , 1995; NOAA, 1994; U.S.G.S., 1975).

![](media/image1.png){width="5.388976377952756in"
height="4.090157480314961in"}

> Figure 1. Jet Stream and other weather patterns causing the 1993
> Midwest floods.

The 1927 floods on the Mississippi River prompted the federal government
to take action on flood disaster mitigation. Their approach was to build
flood control structures miles away like dams, levee systems, diversion
projects, etc. However, decades of subsequent flooding, especially 1973
and 1993, demonstrated that such measures were only partially
successful. For example, the levees in St. Louis are relatively close to
the river. During the 1973 flood, these levees did prevent flooding in
St. Louis but constrained the flow so that the levees acted like a dam
with a big hole in it. The water pooled behind this constriction and
backed water up the river threatening to flood towns up stream like St.
Charles. In 1993, the Corps of Engineers found themselves in the curious
position of knocking holes in levees they had built to prevent flooding.
However, such action was necessary. There was so much water that some
additional lands had to be flooded to lower the water level in the river
and, hopefully, mitigate flooding of nearby towns. Since structural
controls did not completely attain the desired result, Congress passed a
series of laws concerning flood insurance, control of development on
flood plains and related land use planning and zoning.

The debate continues over just how all this planning, etc. should be
done (Hayes, 2004). A group of government officials and academics
reviewed the non-structural hazard mitigation plan developed by the
Corps of Engineers and incorporated parts of it into their alternative
plan. Part of the alternative plan involved development of a computer
program to perform a cost/benefit analysis each individual structure to
retrofit them to an acceptable flood-proof standard. This approach shows
how detailed the planning and analysis process has become to mitigate
the impacts of flooding in some locations.

Changnon and Kunkel (1995) showed the difficulty of determining whether
future weather would be wetter or drier in the Midwest. During the
period 1921-1985, floods increased in the northern Midwest, but not
elsewhere in the study area. Cyclone frequencies, thunderstorm
frequencies and heavy-precipitation events also increased. They
concluded that increased future precipitation would lead to increased
flooding and vice-versa, decreased precipitation would lead to more
drought events. These conclusions may seem obvious to the layperson, but
climate science does not necessarily require increased precipitation to
translate into increased flooding. Many other factors determine whether
it floods or not. This is especially true in urban environments.

Flash floods are an increasing threat in urban areas according to the
American Meteorological Society (AMS) (2000). As a rural watershed
becomes urbanized, floods will occur more frequently due to the
increased amount of impervious surfaces. A stream channel that could
carry all the runoff from a rural environment would flood dramatically
after the watershed has become urbanized. Consequently, flash floods
become \"flashier\". In their policy statement, the AMS points out that
lead time for flash floods has increased to 50 minutes and much of the
improvement is due to new technology and training. Radar technology now
allows some reasonable estimate of rainfall rates and
hydrometeorologists are now on staff at many National Weather Service
forecast centers. Better linked meteorological\--hydrological models
continue to be developed supplemented by improved Geographic Information
System (GIS) technology. In spite of these improvements, coordinated
dissemination and preparedness programs by local governments are still
necessary to mitigate the effects.

Weaver, Gruntfest and Levy (2000) reported on the flooding disaster that
occurred July 28, 1997, in Fort Collins, Colorado, and the specific
steps taken to mitigate the emergency management problems that occurred.
Many of these modifications and improvements were in place when a second
flood occurred April 30, 1999. This proved to be an excellent test of
the new system. Many of the improved procedures involved better two-way
communication between local authorities and the NWS including placement
of automated rainfall and stream flow gages. Much of this information
could be transmitted directly to the NWS in real time. The procedures
worked well demonstrating the old saying that it takes a disaster to
prepare for a disaster.

The arrangements could be used as a model for the future. The city of
Fort Collins, Colorado, created an Emergency Command Center staffed with
just the right specialists, just the right communications, and ability
to monitor events in real time with sensors at strategic locations in
the field. The specialists also had a detailed knowledge of how similar
events had impacted specific locations in the past. Unfortunately, such
a model can only be implemented with modern information systems
technology. Most of the rest of the world is simply at the mercy of the
weather and its consequences.

The major rivers in China have a history of flooding and misery that are
unequaled anywhere. The Huang (Yellow) River has flooded so many times
in recorded history that it is called "China's Sorrow". The name refers
not only to direct loss of life but also loss of crops and the resulting
famine that follows. Similarly, the recurrent flooding of the Yangtze
River prompted the Chinese government to take drastic action. The floods
of 1998 were especially devastating and the relief efforts stretched the
government\'s resources to the breaking point. Consequently, the
government decided to build the Three Gorges Dam. This dam is a
controversial project in several respects, but the shear size of the
project is impressive: some 600 feet tall, 1.5 miles long with a
reservoir about 350 miles long. In additional to the obvious
environmental destruction, there are immense potential social problems.
Perhaps as many as 1.5 million people will have to be relocated. The
whole project has been described as the biggest thing ever built. While
this claim may not be exactly true, the project represents a tremendous
investment and gamble by the Chinese government. Just to what extent, it
will have the intended benefits remains to be seen.

In China, modern technology has not only been used in the construction
of the Three Gorges Dam, but also in the development of a modern system
to better monitor and assess floods and other natural disasters (Zhang,
*et. al*, 2002). It is based on remote sensing, geographic information
systems, and the Global Positioning System. The system illustrates the
transfer of current technology to developing nations which greatly
improves their ability to respond to an emergency.

Finally, it is important to remember that all floods are not caused by
meteorological events. The 2004 Tsunami in the Indian Ocean will be
remembered for a death toll of over 200,000. The shifting of the
earth\'s crustal plates caused one of the very strongest earthquakes
ever measured. The resulting tidal wave caused flooding on virtually all
the coastlines surrounding the Indian Ocean. Within a few hours,
thousands of coastal communities were utterly destroyed by flooding.

**Droughts**

In the U.S., the cause of droughts is the configuration of the westerly
winds. The driest years of the 20th Century (1934, 1936, 1954, 1956,
1980) all have similar upper air patterns (Figure 2). The jet stream
makes a large northern bend, called a ridge, across the middle of the
country with smaller southern bends on each side across the west coast
and east coast states. A large anticyclone (high pressure cell) forms
below the ridge and begins to rotate. This pattern is very stable and is
called an omega block, after the Greek letter omega, **Ω.** It can
remain in place for the entire summer when its effects are most
pronounced. The descending air in the anticyclone makes it nearly
impossible for clouds to form or precipitation to fall. The clear skies
and intense sunshine cause unusually high temperatures in the summer.
However there is an additional meteorological process contributing to
the scorching temperatures which is often not fully appreciated. Basic
atmospheric processes require rising air to cool off as it rises, and
descending air to warm up as it descends. In a high pressure cell, the
air descends and warms, resulting in even warmer temperatures than would
occur due to the sunshine alone. The result can be 100° F. temperatures
day after day.

![](media/image1.png){width="5.395275590551181in"
height="3.7409448818897637in"}

> Figure 2. Jet stream and other weather patterns causing drought in the
> northern Great Plains and Midwest.

Climatic factors also come into play. For example, the Great Plains of
the U.S. is a place of climatic extremes. About one-third of the time,
it is drier than normal, one-third of the time it is wetter than normal;
so it is only within normal ranges the remaining one-third of the time.
An important precursor of drought in the Great Plains region is a
deficiency of soil moisture in the spring. As temperatures increase in
the late spring and early summer, the ground temperatures become hotter
and hotter. This, in turn, sets up a positive feed back that helps to
reinforce the strength of the anticyclone causing the drought. These
forces were at work during summer drought of 1980 and the record high
temperatures established at that time still stand in many locations.

The 1930s Dust Bowl Drought was the most severe drought to affect the
U.S. during the 20^th^ Century and the longest. McGregor (1986) showed
that the 1950s drought was actually more intense, but simply did not
last as long as the 1930s drought. The notoriety of the Dust Bowl was
due as much to its social impact as its environmental catastrophe
(Worster, 1979). Poor, destitute farmers migrated out of the region. The
government developed relief programs that would have been unthinkable a
decade earlier. By the 1950s, farming practices had changed, and a
social safety net was in place that mitigated the impact of the 1950s
drought. These included price supports, crop insurance, and improvements
in land management techniques so the dust storms of thirties did not
reoccur.

Recently the causes of the Dust Bowl drought has been linked to spatial
pattern of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Ocean (Fye,
Stahle and Cook, 2004). These included an anomalous pattern SST pattern
in the north Pacific that endured for the entire eleven year period of
the drought. The patterns also included unusually cool temperatures in
the eastern equatorial Pacific that today would be considered a La Niña
pattern. Collectively, these results provide a clearer understanding of
the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that caused this most infamous
event and will lead to better forecasts of future droughts.

Droughts occur when there is a deficiency of precipitation usually over
some extended period of time like several months or even years. In
modern, developed countries, they have enormous economic consequences,
but are not usually life threatening. In the developing world where a
majority of the people are farmers and grow their own food, drought is
equated with famine and may require massive relief efforts from other
parts of the world. The 1968-75 drought in the Sahel of Africa is a case
in point (Dalby, Church and Bezzaz, 1977; Glantz, 1986). The Sahel
region is located south of the Sahara Desert and north of the forested
lands of equatorial Africa. The people are primarily nomadic herders and
subsistence farmers. When the rains failed, millions of animals died and
the crops failed. An estimated 200,000 people died, and the migration of
the remainder caused social chaos. The governments of these poor
countries had little help to offer. Eventually aid poured into the
region form wealthier nations. The drought did not actually end in 1975.
After near-normal conditions in 1974 and 1975, the drought resumed again
and lasted into the mid 1980s. The result has been continued famine and
turmoil in parts of Africa (Glantz, 1987).

In a discussion of drought as a phenomenon, Hare (1987) makes an
important distinction between drought and desiccation. In his view,
drought is a temporary deficiency of precipitation and eventually the
rains return. It is also more regional affecting, for example, part of
the U. S. while another region might very well have more rain than
usual. In contrast, desiccation is prolonged and gradually intensifying.
It is also larger in scale. The 1970s and 1980s drought in Africa is a
good example of such a desiccation where nearly the whole continent
seemed to dry as a single coherent unit.

Wilhite (2002) points out that drought is often an indicator of
unsustainable land and water management practices and humanitarian aid
from outside only encourages these practices to continue. This, in turn
contributes to the desertification process. The result is a vicious
cycle. Wilhite argues for the development of a better system of
preparedness, early warning systems, and mitigation strategies not only
in the countries affected but by the international organizations that
provide aid (Wilhite, Easterling and Wood, 1987).

What happens when a drought is forecast and then does not materialize?
Changnon and Vonnahme (2003) reported on the consequences of such a
failed forecast. In march of 2000, NOAA issued forecasts of spring and
summer droughts for several states in the Midwest. The summer brought
heavy rains instead. Various state and local water managers heeded the
forecast and initiated actions such as authorizing water restrictions
and/or holding meetings of drought response groups. For the most part
the managers reported that such actions caused few problems. However,
certain agricultural interests complained of large economic losses. The
episode resulted in a loss of credibility and called into question the
response of water managers to such a forecast in the future. Essentially
this entire episode is an example of the "cry wolf syndrome". It is an
inevitable consequence of warnings that are issued for events that do
not actually occur.

**Heat Waves**

Heat waves occur when a strong high pressure cell, an anticyclone,
stalls over a particular place during the summer. The excessively high
temperatures are caused by a combination of clear skies, intense
sunshine, and descending (warming) air. These factors can also be
aggravated by high humidity and the urban heat-island effect.
Frequently, if winds are light, air pollutants can accumulate and make
the situation even worse.

The heat wave has been called the silent killer. Perhaps as many as a
1,000 people a year die due to extreme heat. This is more than from any
other type of weather related event in the U.S. The two most notable
recent heat waves occurred in Chicago, Illinois in 1995 and in France in
2003. In both cases, there was a disproportionate number of deaths among
the elderly and poor, and government officials were criticized for not
responding more effectively.

The Chicago heat wave during the summer of 1995 has become legendary
because it was such an extreme event and, as a result, at least 700
people died. Kleinenberg (2002) provided a detailed social history of
the human impacts including a sympathetic analysis as to why the poor
and elderly suffered a vast majority of the deaths. Many of these
\"incasts\" lived in old tenements without air conditioning in high
crime areas. Their windows are often nailed shut and in some cases their
water and/or electricity had been cutoff for failure to pay their bills.
Kleinenberg also condemed city officials for not doing more to aid the
most vulnerable population.

Looking at the details of the meteorology, Karl and Knight (1997)
conducted a statistical analysis of the Chicago heat wave and concluded
that it was an extremely rare event with a probability of occurrence
less than 0.1%. This probability was based on a 10,000 year simulation
based on the mean and variance of temperatures. They also attempted to
determine if such events might be more frequent in the future as a
response to global warming, but had difficulty in accomplishing this
goal.

The city of Philadelphia has created a heat watch/warning system. Ebi,
*et. al.* (2004) discussed the criteria for determining when a warning
was needed and costs and benefits of issuing such a warning. They also
demonstrated the statistical techniques used to estimate number of lives
saved although there remain certain difficulties in accomplishing this
goal. One of the most troublesome problems was determining the dollar
value of a live saved as well as the costs of maintaining such a warning
system.

During August, 2003, France was hit with an extraordinary heat wave that
virtually paralyzed the country. During the first week of August,
temperatures remained at 36°-37° degrees C. and some stations reported
temperatures of 40° C. An estimated 11,400 people died and, again, most
of them were elderly (Crabbe, 2003; Vandentorren, *et. al.*, 2004). The
traditional August vacation season contributed to the problem. During
this time, the country virtually shuts down as many people, including
government officials, take their vacation. Many such officials were
criticized for their reluctance to cut short their own holidays to deal
with the crisis. Some hospital wards had even been closed during the
August break. The end result was both a human catastrophe and a
governmental crisis.

#### Wildfires 

#### While forest fires, brush fires, and range fires are all natural phenomena, they have caused increasing dollar losses in the U. S. Much of this is due to the proliferation of suburban and low density rural development as people choose to live beyond he edge of the city in the so-called \"exurbia\" environment. Many of these homes are large and expensive so a single wild fire can cause millions of dollars in damage.

Wildfires are frequently aggravated by weather conditions. The potential
for wildfires will be greater during a long, hot summer when high
pressure is in control of the region. In the western U. S., such a high
pressure can create winds that help fan the fires. In California, such
winds are called Santa Ana winds and in the Rockies, they are called
Chinook winds. In meteorological terms, both are katabatic winds, i.e.,
winds that move down-slope and warm up as they do so. For example, in
Colorado and Montana, Chinook winds move down the eastern slope of the
Rocky Mountains. In California, Santa Ana winds move down the western
slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These winds not only warm as they
descend, their relative humidity decreases so they become desiccating
winds absorbing moisture from everything they touch including the soils
and vegetation. With a large anticyclone anchored over the western
states, the clockwise pattern of rotation will cause Chinook winds to
develop in the northern part and Santa Ana winds in the south. Both are
associated with extreme fire danger.

One of the most notorious wildfires occurred near Los Alamos, New
Mexico. Officially known as the Cerro Grande fire (Hill, 2000), it was
one of the worst such incidents because the fire was set to burn off
some excessive vegetation in about 900 acres. The fire got out of
control and burned 48,000 acres including hundreds of homes. Damages
were estimated at around a billion dollars. Over 18,000 citizens
evacuated and 1,000 fire fighters eventually brought the fire under
control.

The potential for wildfires is a function of accumulated vegetation,
climate, moisture conditions, prevailing weather conditions, and human
influence. Westerling, *et. al.* (2003), analyzed the seasonal and
inter-annual variability in wildfires in the western U.S. They
discovered a strong relationship between previous moisture conditions
and the incidence of wildfires. This relationship was so strong between
that it was possible to forecast the severity of the upcoming fire
season up to a year in advance.

#### Warner, *et. al.* (2004) discussed the development and capabilities of a portable mesoscale model-based forecasting system for use by the U.S. Army and also for use in civilian emergency-response situations. While the system had obvious applications for operations in Afghanistan, it was also used during the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City to predict the potential transport and dispersion of hazardous material. The system also has applications in wildfire monitoring and burn path prediction when meteorological conditions change rapidly.

**Blizzards**

Blizzards are large, intense cyclonic storms during the winter season.
They are justly famous for large accumulations of snow, high winds, and
plunging temperatures. A strong blizzard can virtually paralyze an
entire region of the country. Such storms cause power outages and bring
transportation to a standstill. In early January, 1996, one of the
strongest snowstorms of the century hit the East Coast dropping 17 to 30
inches of snow from Washington to Boston (Le Comte, 1997). Snow from two
additional storms virtually paralyzed East Coast transportation and the
federal government closed for three days. The total snowfall accumulated
to between 20 and 50 inches. To make matters worse, the proverbial mid
January thaw caused rivers to rise from the Ohio Valley to New England
and many areas flooded as far south as Washington, D.C.

DeGaetano (2000) summarized the meteorology and impacts of the ice storm
that hit northern New York and New England in 1998. In spite of the fact
that ice storms are regarded (SP) as relatively rare events, this storm
was approximately comparable to at least three other similar events
since 1948. Total economic impact was perhaps 2 billion dollars and
direct impacts about 1 billion. At one time, nearly 600,000 customers
were without electricity, and 1.4 million people lost electric power at
some point. In addition to the usual impacts on utilities, other major
losses occurred in the dairy and forest products (including maple sugar
production). Over 300 people were admitted to hospitals and treated for
carbon monoxide poisoning.

**The Future**

Several trends will continue into the future that are all intertwined.
Forecasting and prediction will continue to be of paramount importance
and will be done with increasingly complicated models. The observation
networks that supply data to the models will become more elaborate and
operate in near real time. The scale of the frame of reference will be
larger, even global and include the oceans. Global warming will continue
to influence everything in atmospheric science (Harvey, 2000).

Forecasting and prediction have been and will continue to be at the core
of meteorological science. This will include both forecasting of
immediate threats, like predicting the location and intensity of
hurricane landfall, and longer range \"seasonal\" outlooks that will
provide probabilities of some threatening weather event occurring like
heavy rains or the number of Atlantic hurricanes. As atmospheric science
progresses, the frame of reference will become larger, even global. For
example, the development of extended droughts and the incidence of
Atlantic hurricanes are influenced by oceanic conditions half a world
away. A continued focus of attention will be the connections betweens
conditions in the world\'s oceans and weather events elsewhere. As
science progresses, and future ENSO events (and other oscillations) can
be predicted with longer lead times, seasonal forecasts and perhaps even
climatic forecasts become possible. The potential benefits for emergency
management planning are immense.

A good example is Murnane\'s (2004) review of the impact that better
climate forecasts would have on the reinsurance industry. Reinsurance is
best described as insurance for insurance companies. It limits their
losses in case of a major disaster in one place where they have an
inordinate number of clients. Of all the potential disasters,
reinsurance companies are most concerned about hurricanes since these,
collectively, have the greatest impact on the global reinsurance
business. One of the principal areas of research in current global
climatology is focused on various oscillations or cycles in the earth\'s
climate system. Such cycles seem to have a profound effect on the
weather in various parts of the world including the incidence of
hurricanes. Murnane described three atmospheric oscillations in detail:
the Quasi-Binenial Oscillation (QBO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and
Madden-Jullian (MJO). The ability to predict these oscillations and
their consequences (even interactions) would have a huge impact not only
on atmospheric science but also on the reinsurance industry.
Interesting, the models the industry uses are based on climatic
probabilities of such events. However, they do not consider how an
extreme rare event might alter the climatic probabilities. Michaels,
*et. al.*, (1997) also noted that the models used by the insurance
industry rely on historical data sets on storm frequency and assume that
the probabilities will be the same in the future. Increasingly, the
industry is questioning the wisdom of this traditional approach. The
frequency of hurricanes may or may not increase in the future; but,
either way, it is important for the insurance industry to incorporate
better climate science into their models.

One of the more troubling trends as been the expansion of scale for
atmospheric related phenomena from the regional to the global scale.
Floods, droughts, air pollution emergencies are usually local or
regional in scale. However two types of air pollution, ozone depletion
in the stratosphere and carbon dioxide enrichment of the atmosphere, are
essentially global in their impact. Air pollution and ozone depletion
may not pose immediate emergencies, but they are still of special
importance because of the long-term impacts on human health. For the
first time in history, it is clear the humans can and do impact the
workings of the atmosphere at local, regional, and even global scales.

Global warming will continue to receive the most attention as a
long-term threat. Global warming is especially troublesome because of
the potential pervasive impact and the uncertainties associated with
these impacts. A rise in sea level is perhaps the most obvious
consequence, but there are many others like the supposed possibility of
increased hurricane activity. Climate specialists do not all subscribe
to the notion that global warming will result in increased hurricane
activity. However there is more general agreement that the climate
variability will increase and this will cause more extreme weather
events. If all this proves to be the case, the number of natural
disasters will increase as well as the preparedness for emergency
response.

**Summary**

Weather extremes cause many different types of natural disasters
requiring an emergency response. These could range from relatively local
flash floods to drought, starvation and pestilence of Biblical
proportions requiring an international response. The role of meteorology
historically has been in forecasting the event, issuing the warnings and
assessing the forces that caused the damage. Since there are so many
different types of weather related disasters, meteorologists work with
specialists from many different disciplines. These range from the media,
to government officials to hydrologists to relief groups like the Red
Cross. However, all share the common goal of protecting property and
saving lives.

The meteorologist is responsible for forecasting an impending disaster.
This traditional role is fundamental and will not change in the future.
Today, the forecasts are based on models, and this trend will accelerate
as more and more models will be linked together. The forecasts will
become more refined with a better understanding of basic atmospheric
processes and the collection of vast arrays of data through automated
sensing systems. Modern communications are not only important in the
transmission of these data but also in the rapid dissemination of the
consequent forecasts, watches and warnings. Transmission and
dissemination of warnings will also be improved by better organizational
arrangements. A meteorologist and emergency manager will be on the same
team similar to the Ft. Collins, Colorado arrangement.

The meteorological forces driving individual extreme weather events are
increasingly understood in the context of larger regional or even global
processes. Will global warming cause more variability in the weather at
a particular place and hence lead to more extreme events? If so, the
future for emergency managers will be a busy one.

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