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|   |   FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                 CONTACT:  David Cooke        |   |
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|   |   April 11, 2003                        Economist                    |   |
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|   |                                         \(503\) 947-1272             |   |
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|   |                                                                      |   |
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|   | ** Oregon's economy weakens in March**                               |   |
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|   | Oregon's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent   |   |
|   | in March from 7.3 percent in February, returning to the 7.6 percent  |   |
|   | level reached in January.  Since May 2002, Oregon's unemployment     |   |
|   | rate has remained within a narrow range of between 7.2 percent and   |   |
|   | 7.6 percent.                                                         |   |
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|   | Oregon continues to experience a high unemployment rate compared to  |   |
|   | the national average.  The state's rate is now nearly two percentage |   |
|   | points above the U.S. unemployment rate, which remained at 5.8       |   |
|   | percent in March.  Oregon's rate has been above the U.S. rate since  |   |
|   | February 1996, a time of rapid economic expansion in the Portland    |   |
|   | metro area when Oregon's unemployment rate was 5.7 percent.          |   |
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|   | In March, 154,074 Oregonians were unemployed.   Although close to    |   |
|   | the total number of unemployed in the prior month and in March 2002, |   |
|   | this high number of jobless in the state reflects the difficult      |   |
|   | economic times for Oregon workers.  In comparison, during the boom   |   |
|   | times of 1996 through 1999, the total number of unemployed in the    |   |
|   | state was typically near 100,000.  In 2000, nearing the end of the   |   |
|   | long economic expansion, typically fewer than 100,000 Oregonians     |   |
|   | were unemployed.  To compare to the last economic downturn, in 1992  |   |
|   | and 1993, it was common to see Oregon's total number of unemployed   |   |
|   | at close to 120,000.                                                 |   |
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|   | Coupled with the state's relatively high unemployment rate last      |   |
|   | month, another sign of economic weakness came from the monthly       |   |
|   | business survey that tracks the number of jobs on nonfarm payrolls.  |   |
|   | The survey indicated that for one key measure, March posted the      |   |
|   | lowest employment level in nearly four years.  In March, seasonally  |   |
|   | adjusted payroll employment dropped by 4,900 jobs, to reach          |   |
|   | 1,567,100 jobs, its lowest level since June 1999.  This measure of   |   |
|   | employment peaked at 1,619,400 jobs in Nov 2000.  Then, throughout   |   |
|   | 2001, employment levels dropped substantially as the national        |   |
|   | recession took its toll locally, leaving Oregon's employment         |   |
|   | bottoming at 1,567,900 in December 2001.  Next, during the first     |   |
|   | eight months of 2002, Oregon's economy seemed to be staging a modest |   |
|   | rebound as employment rose by 13,500 jobs.  However, in the most     |   |
|   | recent seven months this modest improvement was not sustained and    |   |
|   | employment levels retraced their steps.  This trend has played out   |   |
|   | through March, when employment slipped 800 jobs below the prior low  |   |
|   | point of December 2001.                                              |   |
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|   | Manufacturing, a key industry in Oregon, has been shedding jobs at a |   |
|   | rapid pace.  Employment is down 30,600 jobs in the past three        |   |
|   | years.  In March, the downtrend continued with a loss of 2,400       |   |
|   | jobs.  Transportation equipment manufacturing and food manufacturing |   |
|   | have each cut 800 jobs since February.  Over the past year,          |   |
|   | substantial cutbacks have been experienced in primary metals (-800   |   |
|   | jobs), computer and electronic products (-2,800 jobs) and printing   |   |
|   | (-700 jobs).  In March, manufacturing employment stood at 191,200    |   |
|   | jobs, its lowest level in more than nine years.                      |   |
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|   | In addition to manufacturing, government has shown weak employment   |   |
|   | trends in the past year.  Government is down 3,200 jobs since March  |   |
|   | 2002.  State government is down by 400 jobs, local government has    |   |
|   | cut 3,400 jobs, while federal government has boosted employment by   |   |
|   | 600 jobs in that time.  In March, government cut 400 jobs at a time  |   |
|   | of year when a gain of 1,300 jobs would have been the norm.          |   |
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|   | Several major industries have kept employment levels at the same     |   |
|   | level as a year ago.  Construction employed 73,900 in March, the     |   |
|   | same level as in March 2002.  While construction did see a job       |   |
|   | cutback of close to 10,000 in 2001, this employment decline was not  |   |
|   | as substantial as would have been the case if the residential        |   |
|   | housing sector had not held up so well.  Recently, construction      |   |
|   | employment has been significantly below its level during the strong  |   |
|   | expansion in the late 1990s.  Nonetheless, the industry is averaging |   |
|   | roughly 20,000 jobs above levels seen during the prior recession of  |   |
|   | the early 1990s.                                                     |   |
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|   | Trade, transportation and utilities is another industry that now is  |   |
|   | nearly level when compared to March 2002.  Both wholesale and retail |   |
|   | trade have seen virtually no net employment change in the past 12    |   |
|   | months.  The same can be said for transportation and utilities.      |   |
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|   | Similarly, professional and business services has seen its           |   |
|   | employment change by less than one percent in the past 12 months.    |   |
|   | Employment is up by 1,100 jobs, or 0.7 percent in that time.  One    |   |
|   | bright spot within this industry is employment services, which has   |   |
|   | added 1,600 jobs in the past 12 months.  Employment services is      |   |
|   | tracked closely by economists to gauge upcoming business cycle       |   |
|   | trends.  Although up from the year-ago figure, at 34,800 jobs in     |   |
|   | March, the industry remains well below its peak March figure of      |   |
|   | 40,800 jobs reached in 2000.                                         |   |
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|   | Educational and health services continues to be one of the bright    |   |
|   | spots in Oregon's economic picture, adding 600 jobs in March and up  |   |
|   | 3,800 jobs in the past year.  In March, private educational services |   |
|   | employed 27,300, its highest level ever.  This industry, which       |   |
|   | includes private colleges as well as private elementary schools, has |   |
|   | posted a gain of 1,300 jobs in the past year.  Immune to the overall |   |
|   | economic malaise, private education has grown consistently for over  |   |
|   | a decade, adding more than 10,000 jobs in that time.                 |   |
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|   | The Employment Department will release Oregon's statewide            |   |
|   | unemployment rate and employment survey data for April on Friday,    |   |
|   | May 9th.                                                             |   |
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|   | -- end --                                                            |   |
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|   | [                                                                    |   |
|   | www.QualityInfo.org/pressrelease](http://www.olmis.org/pressrelease) |   |
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