Market question: JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Vance, VP Debate, Polling

This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if J.D. Vances's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is 40.1% or higher for for any day between Oct 2 (inclusive) and October 11, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market. 

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after October 11, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome: No