Market question: Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?
Category: Politics
Tags: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Politics, war

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Outcome: No