Market question: Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Kamala, fivethirtyeight, Polling

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between August 25, and September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/,  specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.

Outcome: No