Market question: Iran strike on US military in August?
Category: Politics
Tags: Geopolitics, Politics, Israel, Middle East, Iran, war

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.

Outcome: No