Market question: Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities in October? 
Category: Politics
Tags: Geopolitics, gas, Iran, oil, Middle East, Politics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between October 2 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Outcome: No