Market question: Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be 38.0% or higher on December 12?
Category: Politics
Tags: Joe Biden, Politics, 538 approval rating, public opinion, All

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 38.0% for the day of December 12, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 12 as soon as a datapoint for December 13 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 13 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 12 is available by December 13, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to December 12.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome: Yes