Market question: Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?
Category: Politics
Tags: Trump Inauguration, Trump Presidency, Trump, Politics, pollling, 538

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on January 20, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for Jan 20 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after January  20, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to January 20, 2025. 

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.