Market question: Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan? 
Category: Politics
Tags: Gaza, Israel, hamas, Politics, hostage deal, ramadan, global politics, All

On Feb 18, member of Israeli War Cabinet Benny Gantz said "The world must know — and Hamas leaders must know — that if by Ramadan the hostages are not home, then the fighting will continue, including in Rafah."

This market will resolve to "Yes” Israel and Hamas agree to a hostage deal by 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), March 10, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that an announcement by the resolution date of an agreed hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when and if the hostage deal actually takes place. Note that any hostage deal agreement will suffice, regardless of the number of hostages agreed to be released.

The primary resolution source will be formal acknowledgments from Hamas and Israel. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Outcome: No