Market question: Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in July?
Category: Politics
Tags: Biden, Politics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 40.0% for any day between July 22, and July 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). 

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome: No