Market question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 3.5 or more on Oct 18?
Category: Politics
Tags: Polling, rcp, Nate Silver, Politics, 538, real clear, poll, opinion

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of October 18, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Harris +3.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on October 18, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by October 22, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of October 18, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Outcome: No