Market question: Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?
Category: Politics
Tags: Geopolitics, Israel, Middle East, Iran, Hezbollah, Politics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic military strike is carried out on the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open open spaces on around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Outcome: No