Market question: US military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon by Monday?
Category: Politics
Tags: Breaking News, Geopolitics, Politics, Lebanon, Israel, Hezbollah

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military action on Hezbollah targets within Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30, 6:00 PM ET, and August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military action" is any use of force on Hezbollah targets executed by the US on Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Hezbollah weapons depot on Lebanese soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting, and specifically directed against Hezbollah targets. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

The US striking a Hezbollah unmanned aerial vehicle/drone or projectile over Lebanese territory in a defensive capacity, even if defending Israeli targets, will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Outcome: No