Market question: Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?
Category: Politics
Tags: Israel, Politics, Iran, Middle East, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel’s first military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies after October 17, occurs between October 18 and October 21, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Outcome: No