Market question: Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024?
Category: Politics
Tags: nuclear weapons, international relations, Politics, security, military, global security, predictions, All, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon detonates anywhere in the world between December 27, 2023, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. 

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. 

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Outcome: No