Market question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?
Category: Politics
Tags: russia, Ukraine, ceasefire, international relations, global politics, global security, peace talks, Politics, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.

If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Outcome: No