Market question: Iran military response tonight?
Category: Politics
Tags: Middle East, Breaking News, Geopolitics, Politics, Lebanon, Israel, Iran

On August 5, Donald Trump said "Israel is going to be attacked tonight by Iran." (see: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1820526748347593026). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between August 5, 12:00 PM PT (noon) and August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.


Outcome: No