Market question: Unemployment rate over 4.2% in September?
Category: Politics
Tags: Economy, Business, Politics

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2024.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for September 2024 is more than 4.2%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.

The next data release is scheduled for October 4, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if unemployment is 4.3%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 4.2%, this market will resolve to “No”).


Outcome: No