Market question: Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday?
Category: Politics
Tags: model, 538, forecast, silver, Politics, Polling

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 11, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 11 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 11 is available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 11.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.

Outcome: No