Market question: Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?
Category: Politics
Tags: Trump Presidency, Trump Cabinet, Politics

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market.

A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing. 

If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn. 

This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.