Market question: Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Kamala, Trump, Derivatives

This market will resolve to “Kamala” if Kamala Harris is the Polymarket favorite to win the election on Friday, September 6. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

The favorite to win on September 6 will be determined by looking at the 3 hour time window between 12 PM ET and 3 PM ET on September 6. This market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other during this period.

The resolution source will be a comparison between the charts for each candidate found at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 when the “6H” option is selected and decimals are turned on (settings icon -> Decimals toggled on). 

The relevant data points will be those each minute during 12 PM ET to 3 PM ET (i.e. 12:00, 12:01 up to 2:59 PM ET) for each of the candidates. Each of these data points will be compared minute-by-minute, and this market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other. For example if they are tied in 100 data points, Trump is ahead in 60 data points, and Harris is ahead in 20 data points, this market would resolve to "Trump."

Outcome: Trump