Market question: Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
Category: Politics
Tags: Israel, Middle East, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between October 1 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetec actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Outcome: No