Market question: Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?
Category: Politics
Tags: Polling, Politics, silver, Trump, Kamala, nate

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). 

This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). 

If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50. 

This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.

Outcome: No