Market question: U.S. military strike on Lebanon before November?
Category: Politics
Tags: Lebanon, Hezbollah, Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Lebanese soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Outcome: No