Market question: Will US attack Yemen before February?
Category: Politics
Tags: us, yemen, military action, Politics, international relations, All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 25, 12:00 PM ET, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military attack" is any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Houthi weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

The US striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Yemeni territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.


Outcome: Yes