Market question: Will Joe Manchin call on Biden to drop out?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Biden Drop Out

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Manchin publicly states that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential race before 12:00 AM ET on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Statements that are hedged or express ambiguity, such as “We need to consider our options for the nominee” will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

If the DNC does not begin by August 31, and Joe Manchin has not called for Biden to leave the ticket, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Joe Manchin or his official representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Outcome: Yes