Market question: Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be less than 38.5% on January 7?
Category: Politics
Tags: approval rating, Politics, 538 approval rating, polls, All

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is less than 38.5% for the day of January 7, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for January 7 as soon as a datapoint for January 8 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the January 8 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for January 7 is available by January 10, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to January 7.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome: No