Market question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
Category: Politics
Tags: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, hamas, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually upon agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between June 1, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on June 30, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours.

This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.

Outcome: No