Market question: Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January? 
Category: Politics
Tags: Ukraine, gas, Commodities, pipe line, ppeline, Geopolitics, Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod

On January 1, 2025, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline by declining to renew its transit agreement (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/world/europe/russia-ukraine-natural-gas-europe.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian government officially announces that it will allow the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory via any pipeline by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Announcements indicating approval or agreements for resumption, even if the physical flow of gas has not yet commenced.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Ukrainian government, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Ukraine is allowing the transit of Russian natural gas via pipeline through its territory will also qualify.