Market question: Will Israel target Tehran?
Category: Politics
Tags: Israel, Middle East, Politics, Iran, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between September 30 and October 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetec actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. 

Outcome: No