Market question: Capital gains tax increase before election day?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Business, All, Taxes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by Nov 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the top net long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note: if a bill has the effect of treating net long-term capital gains as ordinary income, and the top rate on the income is above 20%, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Surtaxes or other modifications to what is considered long-term capital gains will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."


Outcome: No