Market question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?
Category: Other
Tags: Weather, climate, Science, Global Temp

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of greater than 1.40°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of greater than 1.40°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

Outcome: No