Market question: Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its July meeting?
Category: Other
Tags: All

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 25-26, 2023 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's July 2023 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased exactly 25 basis points over the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by August 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Outcome: Yes