Market question: Will Idalia hit Florida as Category 4 hurricane?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?).

If Idalia is not officially reported to be Category 4 at its time of landfall in Florida or dissipates without making landfall in Florida, this market shall resolve to "No." 

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. 

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Idalia has made landfall in Florida at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Outcome: No