Market question: Will U.S. inflation be greater than -0.3% from November to December 2022?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from November to December 2022. 

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than -0.3 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from November to December 2022 and “No“ otherwise. 

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. 

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is -0.3%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is -0.2%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).