Market question: Will Milton make landfall as a category 4?
Category: Other
Tags: helene, Breaking News, Science, Hurricanes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Milton first makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml).

If Milton is not officially reported to be Category 4 at the time of its first landfall in the contiguous United States or dissipates without making such landfall, this market shall resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL).

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether this system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 4, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Outcome: No