Market question: Will US inflation be more than 0.5% from December 2022 to January 2023?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from December 2022 to January 2023.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.5 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from December 2022 to January 2023 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on February 14, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.6%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “No”).