Market question: Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
Category: Other
Tags: OpenAI, AI, Science, Business, sam altman

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count) or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.