Market question: Turkish Presidential Margin of Victory >5%?
Category: Other
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A 2023 election for the President of Turkey resulted in no candidate getting a majority, triggering a runoff between incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu scheduled to be held on Sunday, May 28, 2023.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either candidate in the 2023 Turkish presidential runoff wins by a margin greater than 5% (e.g. margin of 5.0001% resolves to "Yes"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates.

For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory).

Determination of the margin of victory of this election will be based on official information from the Yüksek Seçim Kurulu/YSK/Supreme Election Council (e.g. https://www.ysk.gov.tr/tr/cumhurbaskani-secim-arsivi/2647).

If this election does not take place by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve 50-50. 


Outcome: No