Market question: Iran strike on Israel today?
Category: Other
Tags: Iran, Israel, missile, Middle East

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a military strike on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate on October 1, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military strike" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.



Outcome: Yes