Market question: Will Lee hit the US as a tropical storm?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical storm system currently named Lee makes landfall in the conterminous US as a tropical storm, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/LEE.shtml).

If Lee does not hit the United States by September 25, 2023 ET, or otherwise dissipates before that date, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lee is not officially reported to be tropical storm at its time of landfall in the conterminous US or dissipates without making landfall in the conterminous US, this market shall resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, a tropical storm is defined as a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots), as described at https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions, and a landfall is said to occur when the tropical storm's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Lee has made landfall in the conterminous US at tropical storm strength strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Outcome: No