Market question: Will Niger's coup trigger military intervention?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 1, 2023 and August 14, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc.

Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention.

A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.

Outcome: No