Market question: Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in September?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a major hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between September 1 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at major hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may only resolve to "No" after September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.

For the purpose of this market, a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when a major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher at the time of landfall.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a major hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement. 

Outcome: No