Market question: Will "Trump" be in the manifesto?
Category: Other
Tags: Luigi Mangione, Pop Culture, Brian Thompson, Mentions, Business

On December 9, Police detained Luigi Mangione as a person of interest in the Brian Thompson case. It has been reported he was carrying a manifesto.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the manifesto contains the word "Trump". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term, as well as variance in capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Misspellings of the term will NOT count for a “Yes” resolution.

Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Donald Trump.

This market will resolve based on the text of the manifesto. Either the full release of the text, or direct quotes from the text published in credible reports will qualify.

If the manifesto has not been released by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, and credible reporting has not quoted this term, this market will resolve to “No”.

Outcome: No