Market question: Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?
Category: Other
Tags: Science, Wildfire, Weather, California, LA, Los Angeles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California spreads to Malibu by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

East Malibu will not count as Malibu for the purposes of this market. Only Malibu's official boundary west of the Malibu creek/lagoon will count (see:https://maps.app.goo.gl/H3sMfYLwPQTbsCvd6) 

The Primary resolution source is official updates from the fire map at https://www.fire.ca.gov/. However, a consensus of credible reporting or video/photo evidence released before the resolution date confirming the fire has spread to Malibu may also be used.