Market question: Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023?
Category: Other
Tags: global warming, climate, Weather, Science, prediction markets, predictions, heat increase, All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2023 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Outcome: No