Market question: Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30?
Category: Other
Tags: All

A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic. Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Outcome: No