Market question: Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
Category: Other
Tags: Weather, Science, climate, Hurricanes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the storm system currently named 'Francine' makes landfall in the conterminous US for the first time as a hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml). If Francine does not hit the United States by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or otherwise dissipates before that date, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL, and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that Francine has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Outcome: Yes