Market question: Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger?
Category: Other
Tags: Hurricanes, Weather, Science, climate

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Helene first makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 4 hurricane or stronger, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE.shtml).

If Helene is not officially reported to be Category 4 or stronger at the time of its first landfall in the contiguous United States or dissipates without making such landfall, this market shall resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL).

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Helene has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of Category 4 or stronger, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.


Outcome: Yes