Market question: Megaquake in November?
Category: Other
Tags: earthquake, megaquake, Science, climate, geology

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between November 5 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until December 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Outcome: No