Market question: Will Arizona be Trump's worst state on March 19?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Arizona Republican primary compared to all March 19 Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all March 19 primaries, or the largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

The margin for this market group is defined using only votes for Trump and the highest nonTrump vote-getter: #Trump / (#Trump + # Next highest) - #Next highest / (#Trump + #Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

The states participating in the March 19 Primaries are: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio. 

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties.

Outcome: Yes