Market question: U.S. Recession in 2024?
Category: Other
Tags: Business, economics, finance, Economy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter.

If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.

The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.

Outcome: No