Market question: Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by March 31, 2023?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This is a market on whether SpaceX will successfully complete a launch of the next Starship intended to reach outer space, currently dubbed "SN20", by March 31, 2023.

A successful launch will mean that Starship takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.

If the Starship completes a successful launch by March 31 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship or replacement of "SN20" with another vehicle (i.e. "SN21", etc.) will have no bearing on the outcome of the market. Any SpaceX Starship launch that is not intended for outer space will have no bearing on the market. This market will resolve solely on whether the first Starship launch intended to reach outer space will successfully reach 62 miles above sea level by March 31, 2023.

Outcome: No