Market question: Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?
Category: Other
Tags: All

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump's favorability rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 37.4% for the day of April 14, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for April 14 as soon as a datapoint for April 15 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the April 15 datapoint is available. 

If no datapoint for April 14 is available by April 15, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous favorability rating to April 14.

The resolution source is Trump's 538 favorability rating currently available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the Indigo line labeled "Favorable."

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Outcome: Yes