Market question: Chicago Mayor Margin of Victory >5%?
Category: Other
Tags: All

A 2023 election for the Mayor of Chicago resulted in no candidate getting a majority, triggering a runoff between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson scheduled to be held on Tuesday, April 4, 2023.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either candidate in the 2023 Chicago mayoral runoff wins by a margin greater than 5% (e.g. margin of 5.0001% resolves to "Yes"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates.

For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory).

Determination of the margin of victory of this election will be based on final election authority certification or other final official determination of the election results.

If this election does not take place by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve 50-50.

Outcome: No