Market question: Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
Category: Other
Tags: climate, Weather, global warming, Science, All, Global Temp, Pop Culture

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome: Yes