Market question: NY-3 Special Election: Will Suozzi (D) win by over 5%?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, Elections, NY Special Election, suozzi, democratic party, All

Following the expulsion of representative elect George Santos (R), a special election was scheduled for February 13, 2024 to fill his vacant seat. The election for New York's 3rd district seat will take place between Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, and Mazi Melesa Pilip, a Republican.

This market will resolve to "Yes" Tom Suozzi wins the NY-3 Special Election by a margin of over 5%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The margin will be determined by taking Suozzi's percentage of the vote (# Suozzi votes / Total votes for Suozzi + Pilip) and subtracting Pilip's percentage of the vote (# Pilip votes / Total votes for Suozzi + Pilip).

If this election does not take place by June 30, 2024, this market will resolve 50-50.

Determination of whether Suozzi won by over 5% will be based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the election results.

Outcome: Yes