Market question: Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, stein, USA Election, Robert, RFK, jill, Kennedy, libertarian, green, third, two, Nate Silver, Creators, US Election

This market will resolve to "Yes" if third party candidates combined receive 2% or more of the total popular vote (including write-ins) in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents.

This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.


Outcome: Yes