Market question: Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Politics, Trump, Swing States, mov, Margin of Victory, Creators, Nate Silver

This market will resolve to "Florida” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. 

This market will resolve to "Alaska” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. 

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Donald Trump and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Florida and Alaska each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If Donald Trump loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which he had a smaller margin of defeat between himself and the first place candidate.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome: Alaska