Market question: Will 538 call fewer than 43 states correctly?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Politics, silver, model, forecast, fivethirtyeight, Polling

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in fewer than 43 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.

If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly. 

This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.  

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.

Outcome: No