Market question: Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Politics, Trump, Kamala, Polling, US Election

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Outcome: No