Market question: Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Kamala, USA Election, Politics, Swing States, Harris, mov, Margin of Victory, Creators, Nate Silver

This market will resolve to "Wisconsin” if Kamala Harris's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Wisconsin is higher than her margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. 

This market will resolve to "Georgia” if Kamala Harris's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia is higher than her margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. 

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Kamala Harris and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Wisconsin and Georgia each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If Kamala Harris loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which she had a smaller margin of defeat between herself and the first place candidate.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome: Wisconsin