Market question: Who will 538 predict to win the election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, fivethirtyeight, Polling, Politics

This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election .

This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100")

Outcome: Harris