Market question: Will Arizona be the closest state?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Polling, Trump, Kamala, Politics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes. 

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome: No