Market question: Who will lead on Silver Bulletin on Friday?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Polling, Politics, USA Election, Trump, Kamala

This market will resolve to "Harris" if Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin's election forecast on October 18, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin's election forecast on October 18, 2024.

If the Silver Bulletin's election forecast for October 18, is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 18 when the datapoint first becomes available. If no datapoint for October 18 is available by October 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 18.


Outcome: Trump