Market question: Who will win the debate according to polls?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Kamala, Trump, Debate, USA Election, Politics

This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Ipsos/538's opinion poll indicates Kamala Harris won the ABC-hosted debate against Donald Trump scheduled for September 10, 2024. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Ipsos/538 opinion poll indicates Donald Trump won. If the results are tied, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market.

If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".

Outcome: Kamala