Market question: National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: france, Global Elections, Politics, French Election

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election.

Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome: No