Market question: Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Nate Silver, Polling, 538, Politics, USA Election

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 30 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kamala Harris..

Outcome: Yes