Market question: Who will win late deciders?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, trunout, mail in, USA Election, Kamala, Trump

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of voters who decided in the last month in the 2024 US presidential election.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on voters who decided in the last month this market will resolve to 50-50.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Outcome: Trump