Market question: Will Kamala flip Trump in the polls in August?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Kamala, USA Election, Politics

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Average shows a positive spread for Kamala Harris at any point by Aug 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source of polling data will be used for market resolution.



Outcome: Yes