Market question: Will another candidate get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Politics, libertarian, RFK, green, Kennedy, Popular Vote, US Election

In US elections, a third party candidate is any candidate running as a member of neither the Democratic nor Republican party.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate other than RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Cornel West, or Vermin Supreme is the third party candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes each candidate receives in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.


Outcome: No