Market question: If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: RFK Jr, USA Election, Politics, Polling, rcp, RealClear, real clear

This market is on if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the 2024 presidential race, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump’s relative position will improve more. Resolution will be based on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) daily polling averages chart labeled "Trump vs. Harris", available at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris.

The market will resolve according to the RCP polling averages for Trump and Harris on the day  RFK Jr. drops out (Day 0) compared with the polling averages for Trump and Harris on the the seventh day after his withdrawal (Day 7) once RCP has published numbers for the the eighth day (Day 8). 

If Harris's polling average increases more/decreases less than Trump's, the market will resolve to "Harris". 

If Trump's polling average increases more/decreases less than Harris's, the market will resolve to "Trump".
 
If both candidates' polling averages increase/decrease by the same amount, the market will resolve to 50-50.

If RFK Jr. does not drop out by October 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET the market will resolve to 50-50.

Outcome: Harris