Market question: GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, USA Election, Kamala, Trump, Margin of Victory, Popular Vote, US Election

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Outcome: No