Market question: RCP polling: Trump by less than 1.4 on April 5?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Joe Biden, u.s. election, Politics, All

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as of April 5, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is less than Trump +1.4 percentage points, or if Biden is ahead. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on April 5, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. 

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is not available by April 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of April 5, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.


Outcome: Yes