Market question: 538 favorite when forecast is turned on? 
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Trump, USA Election, Politics

If Kamala Harris has a higher probability of winning than Donald Trump when the 538 forecast is turned back on, this market will resolve to "Kamala". If Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning than Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "Trump". If Kamala Harris and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the forecast is not turned on by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to 50-50. 

If at any point either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is no longer in contention for the US Presidency, this market will resolve in favor of the remaining candidate.

This market will resolve immediately after the forecast is turned back on based on the first displayed odds.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100"). 

Outcome: Kamala