Market question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: u.s. election, Politics, us politics, american politics, u.s. politics, All

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Republican Party wins the Presidency and the Senate, but the Democratic Party secures control of the House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. 

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Outcome: No