Market question: Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: queer, USA Election, Demographics, Kamala, gay, trans, Politics, exit poll, Trump, Creators, Nate Silver

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 27% of the Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender voters is 28% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the group which most closely matches Gay/LGBTQ voters. If the data for Gay/LGBTQ voters does not include transgender voters, or if there are slight changes in terminology such as labeling the data "Queer voters," this will still qualify for resolution.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.


Outcome: No