Market question: Will Trump win Arkansas by the largest margin?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: USA Election, Politics, Trump, Margin of Victory

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has the largest margin of victory between Donald Trump and second place candidate of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If  Donald Trump loses this state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, this market will resolve to "No".

The District of Columbia will not count.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes for Donald Trump and for the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome: No