Market question: Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Polling, USA Election, Politics, US Election

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved. 

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").

Outcome: No