Market question: Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 4.0-5.0%? 
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Polling, Kamala, Trump, Margin of Victory, Politics, USA Election, Ann Selzer, DMR, Des Moines Register

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Iowa in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 4.0% (inclusive) and 5.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Iowa for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Iowa has certified the vote. 

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Outcome: No