Market question: Will the NDA win by 15%-20%?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: All, Indian Election, Global Elections, Politics, indian elections

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) wins the 2024 Indian General Election by between 15% (inclusive) and 20% (inclusive) of the popular vote compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the NDA and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

Political alliances such as I.N.D.I.A will be considered parties for the purposes of this market.

If no 2024 Indian General Election takes place, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the party composition of the NDA at the time of the official announcement of the election results, currently scheduled for June 4. Any subsequent changes to the NDA coalition will not be considered for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of India, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Outcome: No