Market question: Who will lead on 538 on Friday?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: horse race, model, forecast, Polling, fivethirtyeight, Politics, USA Election

This market will resolve to "Harris" if Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast on October 25, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast on October 25, 2024.

If FiveThirtyEight's election forecast for October 25 is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 25.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.


Outcome: Trump