Market question: Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Breaking News, Derivatives, Kamala, Trump, Debate, Polling, Politics, USA Election

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently scheduled to debate on September 10, 9 PM ET in an event hosted by ABC News. 

This market will resolve to “Kamala” if Kamala Harris is the Polymarket favorite to win the election one day after the debate. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

The favorite to win one day after the debate will be determined by looking at the 4 hour time window 24 hours after the debate is scheduled to begin, between Sep 11, 9 PM ET and 1 AM ET. This market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other during this period.

The resolution source will be a comparison between the charts for each candidate found at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 when the “6H” option is selected and decimals are turned on (settings icon -> Decimals toggled on). If the debate is postponed or cancelled, the rules will apply to the date one day after the first debate is rescheduled to begin. If no debate occurs before the election, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The relevant data points will be those each minute during 9 PM ET to 1 AM ET (i.e. 9:00, 9:01 up to 12:59 AM ET) for each of the candidates. Each of these data points will be compared minute-by-minute, and this market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other. For example if they are tied in 160 data points, Trump is ahead in 60 data points, and Harris is ahead in 20 data points, this market would resolve to "Trump."

Outcome: Kamala