Market question: Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1?
Category: Other
Tags: All

[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets]

This question will resolve to “Yes” if the Institute for the Study of War Map shows that Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at any point between June 5 and October 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "severing the land bridge" is defined as extending the zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to any point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov Sea northeast to the Russian border (Kerch Strait Bridge not included). On the ISW Map, Russian-controlled territory is shaded red. Therefore, for this market to resolve to "Yes", there must be territory that includes at least some coastline between Henichesk and the Russian border near Taganrog, which is not colored red on the ISW map. 

For the purposes of this market, if the small strip of land to the south of "Molochnoye Ozera", south of Melitopol, is still red, it would classify as Russia continuing to have a land bridge from Russia, even if Ukraine destroys the bridge which physically connects that territory.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISW's "Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine" (e.g.https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the ISW's "Interactive Map" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from the ISW may be used. If information from the ISW is rendered permanently unavailable, information from Liveuamap (https://liveuamap.com/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and Liveuamap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Outcome: No