Market question: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its January meeting?
Category: Other
Tags: economy1, federal reserve, interest rates, finance, fed, monetary policy, All

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's January 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased exactly 25 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 30 - 31, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Outcome: No