Market question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Category: Politics
Tags: Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East, Politics, Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties.

A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Outcome: Yes