Market question: Will National Rally win less than 175 seats?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, French Election, Global Elections

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Rally coalition comprised of National Rally (RN, Rassemblement National) and Union of the far right (UXD, Union de l'extrême droite) wins less than 175 seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Rally coalition in the National Assembly as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior. Any coalitions made with other parties or elected deputies after the results of the election are reported will not be considered for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published through the website of the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome: Yes