Market question: NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July?
Category: Politics
Tags: Politics, Ukraine, military, global politics, eu, nato, war, All, Geopolitics

On February 26, 2024, Emmanuel Macron stated that sending troops to Ukraine has not been ruled out, reinforcing other recent statements by by the Slovakian prime minister to similar effect. (https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia between February 27, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome: No