Market question: Will Trump do better with men than in 2020 election?
Category: Politics, Election
Tags: Politics, Polling, Trump, USA Election, exit, poll, demographic, male, masculitnity, Gender, Demographics

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research. 

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 53% of the male vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of male voters is 54% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on male voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution. 

Outcome: Yes