Market question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.01 and 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844?
Category: Crypto
Tags: Ethereum, gas price, cryptocurrency, Ethereum Dencun, blockchain, finance, technology, predictions, Crypto, All

Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 (or “proto-danksharding”) is a major step toward scaling Ethereum. It lowers the cost of posting L2 rollup data to the Ethereum mainnet via “blobs” (see https://consensys.io/blog/ethereum-evolved-dencun-upgrade-part-5-eip-4844). There has been much discussion about what the gas prices per blob will be after EIP-4844 is introduced.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the median gas price per blob is greater than or equal to 0.01 ETH and less than or equal to 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844 launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If EIP-4844 hasn’t been launched by Dec 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be on-chain data for blob prices exactly 30 days (720 hours) after EIP-4844 is launched. Specifically, 30 days after EIP-4844 is launched, the median gas price per blob during the following 7-day (168 hour) period will be calculated and used to resolve this market. This market may be updated with specific sources that will be looked at for determining resolution.


Outcome: No