Market question: Will the median gas price per blob be >=0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844?
Category: Crypto
Tags: Ethereum, gas price, cryptocurrency, Ethereum Dencun, blockchain, finance, technology, predictions, Crypto, All

Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 (or “proto-danksharding”) is a major step toward scaling Ethereum. It lowers the cost of posting L2 rollup data to the Ethereum mainnet via “blobs” (see https://consensys.io/blog/ethereum-evolved-dencun-upgrade-part-5-eip-4844). There has been much discussion about what the gas prices per blob will be after EIP-4844 is introduced.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the median gas price per blob is greater than 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844 launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If EIP-4844 hasn’t been launched by Dec 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be on-chain data for blob prices exactly 30 days (720 hours) after EIP-4844 is launched. Specifically, 30 days after EIP-4844 is launched, the median gas price per blob during the following 7-day (168 hour) period will be calculated and used to resolve this market. This market may be updated with specific sources that will be looked at for determining resolution.


Outcome: No