(really the BoE should have been paying more attention to the trend!). But since the peak of 5.2% in October 2011 the trend has been sharply downwards. In fact CPI inflation has been falling nearly as sharply as it did in 2009. Yes, there have been a couple of spikes, but there is no doubt that the underlying trend for the last year (at the time of writing) has been deflationary. There are two possible ways of viewing the current spike. One is that it is just that - a spike - which will not affect the overall downward trend. If this is correct, then we should expect CPI inflation to fall again in November or December. In support of this argument, the ONS notes that of the 0.5% rise in CPI, 0.3% is due to a substantial increase in student tuition fees that has just come into force: this would unwind itself in due course. And as it also does not affect "ordinary" consumers, it is arguably a distortion. That leaves an increase of 0.2% due to externally-driven food and fuel rises partially offset by price falls in other sectors. If price-cutting continues in other sectors, CPI inflation may well return to trend even if world commodity prices continue to rise. The alternative view is that this increase in CPI is a trend reversal - that the September figure was the turning point and this is the start of a rising trend in CPI inflation similar to that in