sure. Ireland will default on its bank debt (but not sovereign debt) -- for sure. Portugal may default on either banks or government debt. Spain will probably impose debt-equity swaps on bank bondholders if it comes under pressure. But Italy? Short of disorderly total eurozone collapse (and we are still a world away from that, and under that scenario there would be even bigger concerns than Italian debt), the idea that Italy might default makes no sense to me at all.