end of the debt supercycle in developed markets. In Europe, we can support this hypothesis by noting the sharp deterioration in GDP growth and growing stress in the majority of government bond markets. While these signposts aren't necessarily apparent in the US, the loss of its AAA rating over the summer is likely to be a precursor to further developments over the next couple of years. Of course, the ending of a debt supercycle -- and the consequences for investors -- play out over a number of years. To ascertain the longer-term impact of deleveraging, there are, of course, only two historical examples to draw upon: the US in the 1930s and 1940s and Japan over the past 20 years. Secker reckons Japan is the most pertinent for Europe, although it's by no means a perfect comparison. Japan, for example, never experienced a sovereign debt crisis, in spite of debt-to-GDP ratios in excess of some PIIGS. Still, it can provide a guide for investing over the next decade, thinks Secker. And here it is: 1) Economic growth will be slower and more volatile. In the 20 years prior to the bursting of the Japanese bubble at the beginning of the 1990s, Japanese per capita GDP grew by an average of 3.4 per cent, with just one recession in 1974/75. However, in the subsequent 20 years there have been six recessions, and per capita GDP growth has averaged just 0.8 per cent. 2) Fiscal policy is increasingly important when interest rates