the other provisions." The most probable outcome is a partial strikedown These comments by Roberts indicate to me that the most likely scenario is what I've predicted for months : that the Court will strike down the individual mandate and all of Title I, which contains the law's reordering of the private insurance market. On the other hand, the Court is likely to let the rest of the law stand. There's an outside shot that the Court will strike down Title II, which contains the law's dramatic expansion of Medicaid, but I'd say the chances are under 10 percent. One point worth mentioning: the fact that the Court ruled largely in favor of the Obama administration on a controversial Arizona immigration case is interesting. By siding with the administration in that case, and another one regarding juvenile sentencing, the Court has a strong defense in overturning Obamacare. It can respond to sore losers who attack the Court as "political" by pointing out the decisions that it has made in the administration's favor. UPDATE 1 : Philip Klein interviews Sen. Mike Lee (R., Utah), a former Alito clerk, who agrees that if Roberts is writing the opinion, the mandate's death is "substantially more likely." Lee said that if Roberts did write the opinion, it bodes well for opponents of the health care law. The Senator attended the oral arguments in March and said he followed Roberts' questioning closely and even watched his body language, facial expressions and word emphasis. "I was