Poland, is successful at exploiting commercially shale gas, another, say France, will follow, and then everybody else will get in on the act.  Europeans are aware of course of the huge success of shale gas exploitation in the United States.  But the U.S. is too far and they do not quite compare themselves to it.  They need a closer to home model to imitate. 3. If unconventional gas in the EU was to enjoy the same success as it does in the US, what would be the consequences from a geopolitical point of view, in particular for Russia? It would give Russia the greatest opportunity it has had in over a decade to become a modern democracy with the rule of law and a sustainably prosperous economy. A quarter of a century ago, low commodity prices participated in forcing Gorbachev to initiate the reforms that eventually brought about the disintegration of the Soviet Union.  Under Yeltsin, after an initial rush to reform, in the absence of the rule of law, the economic and social transition of the country stalled.  Then, when commodity prices touched bottom, the country defaulted on its loans, Yeltsin's regime collapsed and Putin's group came into power.  Then, the worst possible thing happened, partly because of the rise of China, commodity prices started climbing, thereby eliminating the incentive for Russian economic and social restructuring.  So, while other countries in the former Soviet bloc, like Poland and Estonia had to go through painful economic restructuring, but came out