of justification for the oligopoly of the present nuclear powers, so hypocritical it does not dare even speak its name -- Israel, with 200 nuclear bombs, is never mentioned. There will never be nuclear disarmament until it is broken. To face up to the enemies ranged against Iran requires a coherence and discipline of which there is little sign at present. With their own operational habits and doctrines to the fore, the Iranian clerics have played a profoundly divisive role in keeping the Shi'a parties and Sistani, Tehran's bearded queen on the Iraqi chessboard, pitted against the resistance forces. A de-confessionalized alliance of forces from Tehran to Damascus, via Basra and Baghdad, would both damp down communalist conflict and strengthen Iran's position. Little in the recent Iranian record suggests the country's ruling institutions are capable of dealing with imperial arrogance when they confront it, other than with a hydra-headed incompetence. However, circumstances may now be forcing them into decisions they have so far sought to evade. It will not be easy to dress up surrender to Western threats as dignified national wisdom. It will not be difficult to turn Shi'a crowds and militia against the Western occupation across the border. Tehran controls more significant hostages today than a mere embassy. It is unlikely, if the country kept its nerve, that the Pentagon or its proxies would risk an attack. Outlook The crisis in the Middle East that began in 2001 is not in sight of any dnouement. At best, we