of it stronger and more democratic, Russia's income from selling commodities isolated its elites from such pressures.  It provided Putin's security services backed elite with unprecedented wealth, and left enough to provide the majority of the population with a social and economic minimum it grew to expect since Soviet times.  Russia never went through J-curved economic restructuring, shock therapy, and so on.  Much of the progress in terms of the growth of civil society, the independence of the media, and privatization that was made under Yeltsin has been reversed in what I called elsewhere, the "Putin Restoration." If the well spring that has been providing for this restoration dries up, Russia will be forced into some kinds of reforms.  Russian history proves that such reforms, as modernization under Peter the Great and industrialization under Stalin, do not have to take the Western course. Today, there is also an alternative model of a path to prosperity in China.  But I believe that the Russian people are tired of totalitarian experimentation and would much rather follow the path of Western Germany after the Second World War than the path of China.  Russia is already an industrialized country and is more modern than China in terms of urbanization.  I do not think they will be able to advance themselves economically, in the absence of high commodity prices, without democratization and most importantly the rule of law, and I think at least some people within the Russian elite understand this as well.  But as