It is unlikely that this Shia organisation will fall on its sword for the sake of Syria: if it fights other Lebanese, or takes over sections of the country that are not Shia, then its legitimacy as a resistance movement and a bona fide Lebanese political party will disappear into thin air. Tripoli is an exception to this rule because the Lebanese disease of neglect of more distant regions has left the city captive to the wiles of radical Sunni groups and jihadists. These actors have more links to brethren in Hama and Homs than to Beirut. Furthermore, Tripoli also hosts a Lebanese Alawite community. This combined with the Sunni fervour there ensures a bloody Syrianisation process . Therefore, unlike the rest of Lebanon, Tripoli is not likely to recover any coherence as long as Syria boils and bubbles. Of course, matters remain very delicate in Lebanon, but this is not new. The country is eternally fragile, and therefore an easy subject for facile political reporting across the globe. There is a risk of matters getting worse. The Syrian government could unleash a policy of "Aprs moi le dluge" if it falters severely. Imagine if troublemakers placed bombs in Shia areas of Beirut, killing many, and blaming it on Sunni radicals, possibly causing a paroxysm of violence in the capital. But how long would this worst case scenario last? Do any Lebanese parties have the stamina to fight it out for long and exactly who would fight whom? For once,