voters pay attention. In 2010, the anti-Obama candidate was sure to win in 2 years time. In 2011, he was only a year from victory. Then the anti-Obama candidate turned out to be Mitt Romney, and Obama got re-elected. (Seriously, read the American punditry from 2010/11. Obama was finished ... the "tide/pendulum" said so). In New Zealand, we have MMP. So the anti-Key vote might go to any one of five or six parties. Minor parties have gained significantly during past campaigns. If Labour's leader is David Shearer, there is every chance that this so-called "tide" of polls that his few remaining supporters are relying on ... will be reversed. Talk of Winston Peters going in on a deal with the green Taliban is ridiculous. Despite attempts to clutch at straws he will not do a deal with them. The only way Peters will do a deal with Labour is if they can stitch it up without the Greeens. Current polling suggests that is impossible. "Labour will probably one day again be the biggest party in Parliament" I'm not so sure. If the Greens continue to grow and reach around 20% in 2017, which I think they're quite capable of achieving, it is possible that Labour will not pass National again in votes for quite some time, unless the centre-right splits along similar lines. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing, mind, just making the observation. I welcome comments, but I ask commenters to follow a few simple rules: 1.