with the temperature rise being nearly linear, it helps to add trendlines.  I've excluded the three Pinatubo years from the regressions.  Here's the result: GISTemp global temperatures, with trends for El Nio, neutral, and La Nia years computed separately. Pinatubo years are excluded. There aren't that many full-blown El Nio events, but they seem to be following a steady upward trend.  There are more La Nia events, and they too clearly follow a steady upward trend.  Finally, the many neutral years also so no sign of departing from a steady upward trend.  There's enough scatter in the neutral years that if one had considered the period 1977-1987, or the period 1987-1997, one might be tempted to say that the neutral years had little or no warming.  But the past decade fits nicely with the long-term upward trend of 0.16 C/decade shown by all three time series. The spacing between the lines is a good measure of the impact of El Nio and La Nia.  All else being equal, an El Nio year will average about 0.2 C warmer globally than a La Nia year.  Each new La Nia year will be about as warm as an El Nio year 13 years prior. So we see a couple of recent La Nias have caused the recent global temperature trend to level off.  But be honest: doesn't it seem likely that, barring another major volcanic eruption, the next El Nio will cause global temperatures to break their previous record?  Doesn't it appear