national average -- he's behind by 0.3 points, on average. Without Virginia, Romney has 18 ways to win -- or 7 percent of possible paths to 270 electoral votes. It can't get much closer here -- of the polls conducted in October, Romney leads 10, Obama leads nine and two are tied. Colorado : Another extremely close state, Obama is up an average of 0.6 percent here. Losing Colorado leaves Romney with only 9.8 percent of available paths. Key to winning here is scoring among the state's large Independent segment of voters. In a recent Public Policy Polling survey , Obama led that group by an astounding 25 points. Wisconsin: The Badger State is looking more and more like it will stay blue, as the Real Clear Politics average puts Obama up more than 4 points here, on average. Wisconsin is important because it keeps one of the so-called "firewall" states on Obama's side. More on why I think Obama will win Wisconsin here . Nevada: Obama leads by an average of nearly 3 points here  -- even though it's technically closer than Ohio or Wisconsin. A Romney loss in Nevada would take away all but 30 plausible paths to victory. Iowa: A particularly devastating poll here is the latest solemn news for the Romney campaign in this state. Obama leads by an average of 3 points in the Hawkeye State. A loss in Iowa cuts out all but 12 percent of paths to victory. New Hampshire: Obama is winning