title for the post we're all commenting on. My personal probability that Obama wins is around 95%. I don't bet though, because of asymmetric utility and my lack of trust in the people running intrade. My mellow has totally been harshed. WTF, why don't we all just wait until Tuesday evening? We'll all know the answer in less than 72 hours. Then we can all send smug emails to everyone who disagreed with us. 'K? David November 4, 2012 at 1:33 am Anyone else starting to get the feeling that Allan Marlow is not so much upset about intellectual dishonesty as he is the results not being favorable to his desired outcome? I may be wrong ... His non-statistical argument is that of a 12 year old. "If you're so sure, then I'll bet you $20 that you can't do ____." I have maybe $2000 extra bucks in my bank. Times are hard. Yeah, maybe I could double it, but I may need that money tomorrow. I'm not going to gamble that. In fact, I don't believe in gambling anyway. I suspect I'm not alone in this. Elliot Wilen November 4, 2012 at 5:03 am I disagree that the binary Presidential EV outcome is the only tool we have to assess the accuracy of the pollsters and poll aggregators. Can we not also look at how well they predicted the 51 state outcomes? By "predicted" I mean: estimated actual vote distribution? In fact, can't we even compare the sigma of