the electorate. The analysis Understanding Likely Voters provides more detail about the likely voter scale that the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press used during the 2008 election. Screening Likely Voters: A Survey Experiment describes a study conducted by the Pew Research Center to identify the questions that best predict whether an individual will turn out to vote and how best to model the electorate. Does an early lead in the polls usually hold up? This commentary provides an analysis of whether early front-runners are likely to capture their party's nomination. What is the "generic ballot" test? The generic ballot question asked by the Pew Research Center is: "If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" where the order of "Republican Party's candidate" and "Democratic Party's candidate" are randomized. For those who are unsure, we ask a follow-up question asking which candidate they lean to. This commentary discusses the "generic ballot," a measure of voters in national surveys who say they would vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district. Questionnaire Design Do people lie to pollsters? We know that not all survey questions are answered accurately but it's impossible to say that any given inaccurate answer necessarily involves lying. People may simply not remember their behavior accurately. More people say they voted in a given election than