fuel his equation and re-run the equation as the variables change.  I therefore highly recommend that interested American Thinkers visit Fair's site occasionally for the equation's latest prediction. And now, here, on our stage, as promised (drum roll, please), is what the PVE is predicting for 2012 as of January 28 (emphasis mine): For a moderately growing economy, which the US model is now forecasting, the election is predicted to be close. The current US model forecast is probably somewhat more optimistic than consensus, but with slightly slower growth in 2012, the election would still be predicted to be close. If the economy suddenly starts to boom -- say 5 or 6 percent growth -- Obama would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. If the economy suddenly goes into another recession -- say minus 5 or 6 percent growth -- the Republicans would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. As of this writing the economy in 2012 looks like it will be ok, but not great, which means a close election -- essentially too close to call . If the economy does turn out to be ok, but not great, and if the election is close, the voting equation will have done well. If instead in this case the election is not close, the equation will have made a large error. Specifically, the PVE currently projects the Democrat to win 50.3 percent of the "Presidential Vote Share" (VP). Professor Fair also adds a caveat regarding the