situation in exactly the opposite way. Having pressured the occupier (muhtalil) into conceding this much, the Maliki government will "pocket" the result and this expectation of US withdrawal at a pace satisfactory to the Iraqi government will become the "starting point" for future pressure on the US to pull its combat units out of the country gradually on a schedule that the Maliki government thinks will preserve its power. If Obama is elected, the Baghdad government will find him accommodating in giving them what he already wants to give them. If McCain is elected,(still a 55% probability IMO) he will have a very hard time denying them what they and the American people want. Since AQI is largely a "dead duck," and likely to stay that way, it would seem likely that the other contestants for power in Iraq; Sunni groups, Shia parties, Kurds, etc., will be quiet enough to set the stage for that.  The Kurds will get some sort of overt assurance from the US.  The Sunni Arabs will be helped as well, but much less visibly, and not just from the US.  Their Sunni brethren will "sign up" for that help.  Iran really wants a deal with America.  How they will behave in the context of an American withdrawal from their backyard is unpredictable in detail.  IMO, they prefer it that way.  I would do the same thing, but their behavior would be altogether predictable in the context of a putative Israeli or US/Israeli attack on their