figure is low (40%-). My default assumption is indeed that this is spin, but like URW, my betting has been predicated on the basis that the Tories will do disproportionately well in the marginals. Labour are playing tennis with the sun in their eyes. O/T. Mike. Since you added the edit facility I swapped to operamini browser to post comments to PB.com1 via my blackberry. Most of the time my comments don't get transmitted. They don't connect. I managed to send two comments to PB.com1 this morning but now again can't connect. Today is the first time I have posted here and - no problem. Has Mike or anyone got any idea why I am having this problem. Could it be to do with the "edit function" software? Sorry for the lenghty post O/T but it is frustrating and could also be a problem for others? Nick Palmer. Yesterday on the main thread you posted that yoa agreed with James Burdett's analysis - which by the way I thought was excellent - about the likely timing of the next GE. You said that you thought May 2010 was a value bet. This option is 8/11 with Ladbrokes. So a 58% chance. What odds would you guage this option? 1/3, 75% chance? 1/4, 80% chance? Don't worry if you get it wrong. Caveat emptor etc. If anyone enquires after me next door can you tell them that I am here. My guess is that this is mis-reporting, and they mean a