it's a calculated risk. I do think that home prices will fall a little in the short term, and I wanted to wait before buying but circumstance made that difficult to achieve. A 40% drop in home prices in the middle of Sydney? No way. Not in my lifetime. Interest rates will simply be dropped to ensure that it does not happen. That's only because home prices are a political fulcrum, regardless of which party holds power on the day, and because Australia is in a much better international position than the USA. The real issue with this bet is whether you are measuring home prices in AUD or (for argument sake) kilos of potatoes. IMHO, only bets on relative prices are really meaningful (in terms of predicting the actual future, as opposed to predicting government fiscal behaviour). If we want to use potatoes as our measure of value, Keen is in with a chance. For what it's worth, (talking long term here) the age of big cities must be coming to an end. I can explain this by the following: [1] Terrorism -- someone always has a grudge, advancing technology implies that the maximum damage a small team of people bent on suicidal revenge is going to get more serious over time, and easier to achieve. The worst place to be is anywhere crowded. Cities were originally designed for mutual defense, technology has resulted in the opposite being true. [2] Communication -- telecommuting has to happen sooner or later,