a low base, China would have to pull off the biggest consumer spending boom in history just to maintain overall economic growth at the planned rate of 7%-8%. But the kinds of policies that would be needed to pull this off - such as paying Chinese households more interest on their savings, paying Chinese workers higher wages at the cost of state-owned company profits, or providing Chinese migrant workers with decent social benefits - run up against powerful politically-connected interests. Prof Pettis is doubtful that it can be done. The (Cautious) Bull Simon Cox is the Asia economics editor at the Economist magazine "The bet's still on," says Simon Cox, Asia economics editor at the Economist. "Though it won't be resolved till the end of the decade." "[2018] seems quite soon, but then you look at the individual assumptions, and they don't seem too whacky." One crucial assumption is the exchange rate. Mr Cox's team expects the yuan to strengthen against the dollar, even while prices rise more quickly in China, meaning that measured in dollars China's economy could still grow very rapidly, even if in reality the country actually slows down. "I agree with Pettis on a whole range of things. I think the investment rate is too high, and it is difficult to invest wisely when you are doing it so fast. A lot of investment, especially by state-owned companies, is inefficient." Where he parts company with the Beijing-based professor is on the question of whether China is