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I am making this statement under section 15(4\) of the Welsh Elections (Coronavirus) Act 2021 (“the Act”).


On 1 April, the Welsh Ministers completed the third review of the preparations for the holding of the 2021 poll for the Senedd ordinary general election. We can confirm that for the purposes of this review the criteria we published on 5 March under section 12 of the Act (for determining whether it is necessary or appropriate to postpone the poll for the 2021


Senedd ordinary general election for a reason relating to coronavirus) have not been met.


This Written Statement provides further information on the status of the indicators under the published criteria at the time of the review.


**Criterion 1: Public Health situation (data correct as of 26 March)**


*Key Indicators:*


**Confirmed case rates.** 


The rate for Wales was 37\.8 cases per 100k based on Public Health Wales data.


**Hospital capacity*.*** 


As of 26 March the number of people with confirmed COVID\-19 in hospital has decreased, with a weekly average of over 168 beds occupied, a 31% reduction from the previous period. COVID\-19 ICU occupancy is decreasing, with a weekly average of 23 beds occupied, a 21% reduction from the previous period. The number of people currently recovering from COVID\-19 continues to decrease and is at 469 as at 26 March, a 15% drop from the previous 7 day period.


**Feedback from local health professionals (including incident management teams or outbreak control teams).** 


There was no feedback which would suggest holding the election is an unacceptable risk.


**Feedback from local authority leaders and other local partners.** 


There was no feedback which would suggest holding the election is an unacceptable risk.


**Rates of change in the Alert Level Indicators.** 


The Alert Level indicators were stable.


**The progress of the vaccination programme.** 


The vaccination programme was progressing well. 1,427,183 individuals had received a first dose of the COVID 19 vaccine, while 437,937 individuals had received the two dose course of the COVID 19 vaccine.


**Incidence of variants of concern.** 


Variants of concern were not considered to pose an unacceptable risk in the context of holding the election.


**Criterion 2: Status of Preparations for the Election**


*Key Indicators:*


**Advice from the Welsh Government’s Chief Medical Officer regarding the impact of the current spread of the virus on the safe running of the poll.** 


For the third review, the Chief Medical Officer was invited to report by exception by raising any changes to the advice provided for the second review of preparations.


The previous advice noted that the impact of transmission is likely to have the lowest impact if prevalence of COVID\-19 is lowest. On this basis, the modelled estimates therefore recommended that the preferred election date should be on 6 May, rather than, illustratively, 8 July. This is because it is closest to periods of restrictions which are currently reducing the spread of the virus.


There has been no feedback to suggest that there have been any developments which would require changes to the previous advice.


**The timing of the Police and Crime Commissioner elections.** 


The Police and Crime Commissioner elections are still scheduled for 6 May.


**Feedback from Returning Officers, the Electoral Commission and other stakeholders, for example relating to the availability of staff and venues or capacity to process absent votes.** 


In the third review, we have asked the electoral community to report to us by exception, if for example there are material new or different issues or conclusions in relation to holding the election in a safe way on 6 May which should be brought to the attention of Welsh Ministers.


Feedback from Regional Returning Officers indicated there were no new issues to raise or report though they noted that there were still a number of logistical operational risks and challenges which remain relevant.


There has been no feedback from other stakeholders to suggest that there have been any developments which would impact upon the safe running of the poll.


As the criteria for postponement have not been met, full preparations for the election on 6 May will continue.


We are continuing to support Returning Officers and electoral administrators as they continue with preparations to reduce the risks associated with running an election during a pandemic, such as implementing social distancing and hygiene measures at polling stations and count venues.


In this review, we have given further consideration to our elections guidance including the specific guidance on election campaigning. Canvassing will be allowed from 12 April, subject to restrictions, and the regulations and guidance have been updated accordingly.


The fourth and final review of election preparations will be completed by 23 April. In extremis, the Senedd could make a decision, subject to the agreement of 40 out of 60 Members, to postpone the poll at any time up to dissolution on 29 April. However, as outlined in this Written Statement, based on the information available the Welsh Government’s firm intention at this point remains for the election to be held on 6 May as planned.







Translation:


 
Rwy’n gwneud y datganiad hwn o dan adran 15(4\) o Ddeddf Etholiadau Cymru (Coronafeirws) 2021 ("y Ddeddf”).


Ar 1 Ebrill, cwblhaodd Gweinidogion Cymru y trydydd adolygiad o'r paratoadau ar gyfer cynnal pleidlais 2021 ar gyfer etholiad cyffredinol arferol y Senedd. Gallwn gadarnhau, at ddibenion yr adolygiad hwn, nad yw’r meini prawf a gyhoeddwyd gennym ar 5 Mawrth o dan adran 12 o'r Ddeddf (er mwyn penderfynu a yw'n angenrheidiol neu'n briodol gohirio'r bleidlais ar gyfer etholiad cyffredinol arferol 2021 y Senedd am resymau’n ymwneud â’r coronafeirws) wedi’u bodloni.


Mae'r Datganiad Ysgrifenedig hwn yn rhoi rhagor o wybodaeth am statws y dangosyddion o dan y meini prawf cyhoeddedig ar adeg yr adolygiad.


**Maen Prawf 1: Sefyllfa Iechyd y Cyhoedd (data'n gywir ar 26 Mawrth)**


*Dangosyddion allweddol:*


**Cyfradd yr achosion wedi’u cadarnhau.**


Y gyfradd ar gyfer Cymru oedd 37\.8 o achosion am bob 100,000 o bobl yn seiliedig ar ddata Iechyd Cyhoeddus Cymru.


**Capasiti ysbytai*.*** 


Ar 26 Mawrth, mae nifer y bobl yn yr ysbyty ag achos wedi’i gadarnhau o COVID\-19 wedi lleihau, gyda chyfartaledd wythnosol o dros 168 o welyau mewn defnydd, sydd wedi gostwng 31% ers y cyfnod blaenorol. Mae’r nifer sydd mewn uned gofal dwys â COVID\-19 yn lleihau, gyda chyfartaledd wythnosol o 23 o welyau mewn defnydd, sydd wedi gostwng 21% ers y cyfnod blaenorol. Mae nifer y bobl sy’n adfer o COVID\-19 ar hyn o bryd yn parhau i leihau, ac ar 26 Mawrth, 469 oedd y nifer hwnnw, sydd wedi gostwng 15% ers y cyfnod 7 diwrnod blaenorol.


**Adborth gan weithwyr iechyd proffesiynol lleol (gan gynnwys timau rheoli achos lluosog neu dimau rheoli brigiad).** 


Ni chafwyd unrhyw adborth a fyddai'n awgrymu bod cynnal yr etholiad yn risg annerbyniol.


**Adborth gan arweinwyr awdurdodau lleol a phartneriaid lleol eraill.**


Ni chafwyd unrhyw adborth a fyddai'n awgrymu bod cynnal yr etholiad yn risg annerbyniol.


**Cyfraddau newid yn nangosyddion y Lefelau Rhybudd.**


Roedd y dangosyddion Lefel Rhybudd yn sefydlog.


**Cynnydd y rhaglen frechu.**


Roedd y rhaglen frechu'n mynd rhagddi’n dda. Roedd 1,427,183 o unigolion wedi derbyn dos cyntaf o frechlyn COVID\-19, tra bod 437,937 o unigolion wedi derbyn cwrs dau ddos y brechlyn COVID\-19\.


**Achosion o amrywiolynnau sy'n peri pryder.**


Nid ystyrid bod amrywiolynnau o bryder yn peri risg annerbyniol yng nghyd\-destun cynnal yr etholiad.


**Maen Prawf 2: Statws y Paratoadau ar gyfer yr Etholiad**


*Dangosyddion allweddol:*


**Cyngor gan Brif Swyddog Meddygol Llywodraeth Cymru ynghylch effaith lledaeniad presennol y feirws ar y gallu i gynnal y bleidlais yn ddiogel.** 


Ar gyfer y trydydd adolygiad, gwahoddwyd y Prif Swyddog Meddygol i adrodd drwy eithriad drwy nodi unrhyw newidiadau i’r cyngor a ddarparwyd ar gyfer yr ail adolygiad o’r paratoadau.


Roedd y cyngor blaenorol yn nodi bod effaith y trosglwyddo yn debygol o gael llai o effaith pan fydd yr achosion o COVID\-19 yn is. Ar y sail hon, roedd yr amcangyfrifon sydd wedi'u modelu felly'n argymell mai’r dyddiad a ffefrir ar gyfer yr etholiad oedd 6 Mai, yn hytrach na’r dyddiad enghreifftiol o 8 Gorffennaf. Y rheswm am hyn yw mai dyna’r dyddiad agosaf at y cyfnodau o gyfyngiadau sy’n lleihau lledaeniad y feirws ar hyn o bryd.


Nid oes unrhyw adborth wedi dod i law yn awgrymu bod unrhyw ddatblygiadau wedi bod a fyddai’n golygu bod angen newid y cyngor blaenorol.


**Amseriad etholiadau’r Comisiynwyr Heddlu a Throseddu.** 


Mae etholiadau’r Comisiynwyr Heddlu a Throseddu yn dal i fod wedi’u trefnu ar gyfer 6 Mai.


**Adborth gan Swyddogion Canlyniadau, y Comisiwn Etholiadol a rhanddeiliaid eraill, er enghraifft mewn perthynas â’r staff a’r lleoliadau a fydd ar gael neu'r gallu i brosesu pleidleisiau pleidleiswyr absennol.**


Yn y trydydd adolygiad, rydym wedi gofyn i’r gymuned etholiadol adrodd inni drwy eithriad, er enghraifft os dylid tynnu sylw Gweinidogion Cymru at unrhyw faterion neu gasgliadau perthnasol newydd neu wahanol o ran cynnal yr etholiad mewn modd diogel ar 6 Mai.


Mewn adborth gan Swyddogion Canlyniadau Rhanbarthol, nid oedd unrhyw faterion newydd i’w codi na’u hadrodd, ond gwnaethant nodi bod nifer o risgiau a heriau gweithredol o ran logisteg yn berthnasol o hyd.


Ni chafwyd unrhyw adborth gan randdeiliaid eraill yn awgrymu bod unrhyw ddatblygiadau wedi bod a fyddai’n effeithio ar y gallu i gynnal y bleidlais yn ddiogel.


Gan nad yw'r meini prawf ar gyfer gohirio wedi'u bodloni, bydd y paratoadau llawn ar gyfer yr etholiad ar 6 Mai yn parhau.


Rydym yn parhau i gefnogi Swyddogion Canlyniadau a gweinyddwyr etholiadol wrth iddynt barhau â’r paratoadau i leihau'r risgiau sy'n gysylltiedig â chynnal etholiad yn ystod pandemig, megis rhoi mesurau cadw pellter cymdeithasol a mesurau hylendid ar waith mewn gorsafoedd pleidleisio a lleoliadau cyfrif.


Yn yr adolygiad hwn, rydym wedi ystyried ein canllawiau ar etholiadau ymhellach, gan gynnwys y canllawiau penodol ar ymgyrchu mewn etholiadau. Bydd canfasio yn cael ei ganiatáu o 12 Ebrill ymlaen, gyda chyfyngiadau, ac mae’r rheoliadau a’r canllawiau wedi’u diweddaru yn unol â hynny.


Bydd y pedwerydd adolygiad, sef yr adolygiad terfynol, o baratoadau'r etholiadau wedi'i gwblhau erbyn 23 Ebrill. Mewn sefyllfa eithriadol, gallai'r Senedd wneud penderfyniad, yn amodol ar gytundeb 40 o’r 60 o Aelodau, i ohirio'r bleidlais ar unrhyw adeg hyd at ddiwrnod diddymu’r Senedd ar 29 Ebrill. Fodd bynnag, fel yr amlinellir yn y Datganiad Ysgrifenedig hwn, yn seiliedig ar yr wybodaeth sydd ar gael, bwriad cadarn Llywodraeth Cymru ar hyn o bryd yw cynnal yr etholiad ar 6 Mai yn ôl y bwriad.