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Ar 2 Mawrth 2020 cyflwynwyd isafbris uned o 50c ar gyfer alcohol a werthwyd yng Nghymru i helpu i fynd i’r afael â niwed sy’n gysylltiedig ag alcohol drwy leihau faint o alcohol sy'n cael ei yfed gan yfwyr peryglus a niweidiol. 


Gwnaethom ymrwymo i gynnal adolygiad o’r ddeddfwriaeth isafbris am alcohol ar ôl dwy flynedd. Mae’r datganiad hwn yn nodi sut y gwneir hyn.


Bydd yn ein helpu i ddeall effaith bresennol y ddeddfwriaeth, gan gynnwys goblygiadau’r pandemig. Bydd hefyd yn ein helpu i ddeall a yw’r strwythur prisio presennol o 50c yr uned yn briodol ac yn cael yr effaith a ddymunir, sef lleihau niwed cysylltiedig ag alcohol.


Gwnaethom gomisiynu gwerthusiad annibynnol o Ddeddf Iechyd y Cyhoedd (Isafbris am Alcohol) (Cymru) 2018 a fydd yn cael ei gynnal ar ffurf dadansoddiad o gyfraniadau. Mae’r gwerthusiad wedi’i rannu yn bedair rhan (lot).


Lot 1: Dadansoddiad o gyfraniadau


Mae’r dadansoddiad o gyfraniadau yn ddull gwerthuso sy'n seiliedig ar theori, sy'n briodol i adolygu rhaglenni gwaith cymhleth aml\-lefel lle nad yw priodoleddau achosol uniongyrchol yn bosibl\[1]. Mae'r dull hwn yn briodol ar gyfer gwerthuso effaith isafbris gan nad isafbris uned fydd yr unig ffactor a allai effeithio ar lefelau yfed alcohol a niwed sy'n gysylltiedig ag alcohol.


Bydd angen i'r dull o werthuso ystyried hyn ac asesu cyfraniad y polisi i unrhyw newidiadau a welwyd yn y canlyniadau.


Bydd y dadansoddiad o gyfraniadau yn edrych ar gyd\-destun ehangach polisi alcohol ac yn dod â'r setiau data perthnasol ynghyd â chanfyddiadau'r astudiaethau unigol yng Nghymru a'r gwaith gwerthuso a wnaed yn yr Alban er mwyn llywio'r asesiad o'r cyfraniad y mae cyflwyno isafbris wedi'i wneud at yr amcanion polisi.


Ni ellir cynhyrchu'r adroddiad o'r elfen hon ar y gwerthusiad ond pan fydd yr adroddiadau ar y tair astudiaeth arall wedi'u cynhyrchu, gan fod hyn yn dod â'r holl elfennau ynghyd yn yr  asesiad cyffredinol.


Lot 2: Ymchwil i'r effaith ar fanwerthwyr


Bydd yr elfen hon yn asesu profiad ac effaith gweithredu'r Ddeddf ar fanwerthwyr.


Cyhoeddwyd adroddiad sylfaenol o'r elfen hon o'r gwerthusiad ar 30 Tachwedd 2021\. Mae'n cyflwyno'r set gyntaf o ganfyddiadau o ymchwil ansoddol hydredol gyda manwerthwyr alcohol Cymru a gynhaliwyd cyn i'r Isafbris am Alcohol (MPA) gael ei gyflwyno yng Nghymru.


Mae'r ymchwil yn edrych ar ddealltwriaeth a safbwyntiau manwerthwyr o'r polisi ar bennu isafbris am alcohol cyn iddo gael ei gyflwyno a'u disgwyliadau ar gyfer effeithiau'r polisi. Cynhaliwyd cyfweliadau gyda 30 o fanwerthwyr o bob rhan o'r pum rhanbarth yng Nghymru. Roedd y sampl yn cynnwys manwerthwyr annibynnol a chadwyni, manwerthwyr mawr a bach, a chymysgedd o fathau o drwyddedau alcohol (mewnfasnach, allfasnach, a'r ddau). Bydd yr ymchwil sylfaenol hon yn cael ei dilyn gan ddwy don bellach o gyfweliadau gyda manwerthwyr.


Mae'r adroddiad hefyd yn ymgorffori'r cynllun dadansoddi meintiol, gan roi manylion am y dulliau i'w defnyddio ar gyfer gwerthuso effaith yr isafbris am alcohol ar fanwerthwyr, gan ddefnyddio data Kantar i wneud asesiad meintiol o'r effaith.


Lot 3: Gwaith gyda gwasanaethau a defnyddwyr gwasanaethau


Nod yr ymchwil ansoddol hwn yw asesu profiad ac effaith pennu isafbris ar wasanaethau a defnyddwyr gwasanaethau (gan gynnwys archwilio i ba raddau y gallai newid rhwng sylweddau fod wedi deillio o'r ddeddfwriaeth). Comisiynwyd darn cychwynnol o waith yn archwilio hyn i lywio'r gwaith o weithredu'r Ddeddf. Cyhoeddwyd yr adroddiad o'r gwaith sylfaenol hwn ar 24 Hydref 2019\.


Bydd data'n cael eu casglu trwy arolwg ar\-lein gyda defnyddwyr gwasanaethau a darparwyr gwasanaethau. Cynhelir cyfweliadau gyda'r ddau grŵp hefyd i archwilio'r canfyddiadau yn fanylach.


Lot 4: Asesiad o effaith cyflwyno isafbris am alcohol ar boblogaeth ehangach o yfwyr.


Nod y gydran olaf hon yw ymchwilio i effaith y ddeddfwriaeth ar yr isafbris am alcohol ar y boblogaeth ehangach, gan gynnwys yfwyr cymedrol, peryglus a niweidiol. Cyhoeddwyd adroddiad sylfaenol ar 8 Gorffennaf 2021\. Mae'r adroddiad yn canolbwyntio ar ddata a gasglwyd cyn i'r polisi gael ei roi ar waith ym mis Mawrth 2020\. Prif nod yr astudiaeth oedd ymchwilio i effaith bosibl y ddeddfwriaeth newydd ar yfwyr yng Nghymru a chasglu gwybodaeth sylfaenol y gellir ei defnyddio i fonitro effaith isafbris am alcohol dros gyfnod pum mlynedd yr astudiaeth.


Casglwyd y data trwy holiaduron arolwg ar\-lein a gwblhawyd gan 179 o yfwyr a recriwtiwyd drwy hysbysebion a chyhoeddiadau'r cyfryngau cymdeithasol ar fewnrwyd dwy o Brifysgolion Cymru. Cynhaliwyd cyfweliadau gyda 41 o yfwyr a gafodd eu recriwtio drwy Arolwg Cenedlaethol Cymru, dwy brifysgol, sefydliadau'r trydydd sector a'r arolwg ar\-lein.


Cyhoeddwyd adroddiad pellach ar 24 Mawrth 2022, yn cyflwyno canlyniadau o ail don o gyfweliadau ansoddol o'r sampl hydredol. Nod y don ychwanegol hon o gyfweliadau oedd cynnal astudiaeth ansoddol fanwl o effaith y pandemig ar ymddygiad yfed y sampl hydredol i ddarparu cyd\-destun ar gyfer dehongli'r data yn y dyfodol.


Mae pob un o bedair rhan y gwerthusiad yn gwneud gwaith maes ar gyfer asesiad interim o weithredu'r ddeddfwriaeth. Bydd canfyddiadau pob un o'r pedwar lot yn cael eu cyhoeddi yn ystod yr hydref – disgwylir y bydd yr adroddiad interim o'r dadansoddiad o gyfraniadau yn cael ei gyhoeddi ym mis Chwefror 2023\.  


Bydd canfyddiadau'r lotiau gwerthuso hyn yn llunio’r adolygiad dwy flynedd. Rwy’n bwriadu cyhoeddi datganiad ysgrifenedig pellach a fydd yn nodi'r canfyddiadau allweddol pan fydd yr adroddiadau gwerthuso olaf wedi’u cyhoeddi. 


Cynhelir cylch arall o waith maes ar gyfer pob elfen o'r gwerthusiad yn ystod hydref a gaeaf 2023\. Bydd y canfyddiadau hynny'n cyfrannu at yr adroddiadau gwerthuso terfynol, a fydd ar gael yn ystod haf 2024 ac yn llywio'r adroddiad ar weithrediad a'r effaith y ddeddfwriaeth, y mae'n ofynnol i Weinidogion Cymru ei baratoi o dan adran 21 o Ddeddf 2018\. 


\[1] Mayne, J. (2008\) Contribution analysis: An approach to exploring cause and effect. The Institutional Learning and Change (ILAC) Initiative.







Translation:


 
On 2 March 2020, a minimum unit price of 50p was introduced for alcohol sold in Wales to help tackle alcohol\-related harm by reducing the amount of alcohol drunk by hazardous and harmful drinkers.


We undertook to carry out a review of the minimum price for alcohol legislation after two years. This statement sets out how this will take place.


It will help us understand the current impact of the legislation, including the implications from the pandemic. It will also help us to understand whether the current pricing structure of 50p per unit is appropriate and is having the desired effects of reducing alcohol related harms.


We commissioned an independent evaluation of the Public Health (Minimum Price for Alcohol) (Wales) Act 2018, which will take the form of a contribution analysis. This has four distinct parts (lots).


Lot 1: Contribution analysis


The contribution analysis is a theory\-based evaluation method, appropriate to the review of complex, multi\-level programmes of work where direct causal attributions are not possible\[1].  This approach is appropriate for evaluating the impact of minimum pricing as an MUP will not be the only factor which may impact on alcohol consumption and alcohol\-related harm.


The evaluation approach will take account of this and assess the contribution the policy has made to any observed changes in outcomes.


The contribution analysis will look at the wider context of alcohol policy and bring together the relevant datasets and the findings from the individual studies in Wales and evaluation work undertaken in Scotland to inform the assessment of the contribution that the introduction of minimum pricing has made to the policy objectives.


The report from this component of the evaluation can only be produced when the reports from the other three studies have been produced, as this brings all the elements together into the overall assessment.


Lot 2: Research into the impact on retailers


This element will assess the experience and impact of the implementation of the Act on retailers.


A baseline report from this element of the evaluation was published on 30 November 2021\. It presents the first set of findings from longitudinal qualitative research with Welsh alcohol retailers undertaken before the introduction of the minimum price for alcohol in Wales.


The research explores retailers’ understanding and views of the minimum pricing policy prior to its introduction and their expectations for the effects of the policy. Interviews were conducted with 30 retailers from across five Welsh regions. The sample included independents and chains, large and small retailers, and a mix of alcohol licence types (on\-trade, off\-trade, and both). This baseline research will be followed by two further waves of interviews with retailers.


The report also incorporates the quantitative analysis plan, providing details on the methods to be used for evaluating the impact of the minimum price for alcohol on retailers, using Kantar data to make a quantitative assessment of the impact.


Lot 3: Work with services and service users


The aim of this qualitative research is to assess both the experience and impact of minimum pricing on services and service users (including exploring the extent to which switching between substances may have been a consequence of the legislation). An initial piece of work exploring this was commissioned to inform implementation of the Act. The report from this baseline work was published on 24 October 2019\.


Data will be gathered though an online survey with service users and service providers. Interviews with both groups are also undertaken to explore findings in more detail.


Lot 4: Assessment of the impact of introducing minimum price for alcohol on wider population of drinkers.


The aim of this final component is to explore the impact of the minimum price for alcohol legislation on the wider population, including moderate, hazardous and harmful drinkers. A baseline report was published on 8 July 2021\. The report focuses on data collected prior to the implementation of the policy in March 2020\. The main aim of the study was to examine the potential impact of the new legislation on drinkers in Wales and to gather baseline information that can be used to monitor the impact of minimum pricing over the five\-year study period.


Data were collected through online survey questionnaires which were completed by 179 drinkers recruited through social media advertisements and announcements on two Welsh university intranet websites. Interviews were conducted with 41 drinkers recruited through the National Survey for Wales, two universities, third sector organisations and the online survey.


A further report was published on 24 March 2022, presenting the results from a second wave of qualitative interviews from the longitudinal sample. The aim of this additional wave of interviews was to undertake a detailed qualitative study of the impact of the pandemic on the drinking behaviour of the longitudinal sample to provide context for future interpretation of the data.


Each of the four parts of the evaluation is undertaking fieldwork for an interim assessment of the implementation of the legislation. The findings from each of the four lots will be published during the autumn – the interim report from the contribution analysis is due in February 2023\.  


The findings of these evaluation lots will make up the two\-year review. I will make a further written statement which will set out the key findings once the last of the evaluation reports has been published.


A further round of fieldwork will be undertaken for each component of the evaluation during autumn and winter 2023\. These findings will contribute towards the final evaluation reports, which will be available during summer of 2024 and will inform the report on the operation and effect of the legislation, which Welsh Ministers are required to prepare under section 21 of the 2018 Act. 


\[1] Mayne, J. (2008\) Contribution analysis: An approach to exploring cause and effect. The Institutional Learning and Change (ILAC) Initiative.