Exploratory Extended Time-mean Sea Level Projections to 2300 (cm)

Please note this dataset supersedes previous versions on the Climate Data Portal. It has been uploaded following an update to the dataset in March 2023. This means sea level rise is approximately 1cm higher (larger) compared to the original data release (i.e. the previous version available on this portal) for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. For more details please refer to the [technical note]. What does the data show? The exploratory extended time-mean sea-level projections to 2300 show the amount of sea-level change (in cm) for each coastal location (grid-box) around the British Isles for several emission scenarios. Sea-level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal flood risk to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea-level rise depends on the location around the British Isles and increases with higher emission scenarios. Here, we provide the relative time-mean sea-level projections to 2300, i.e. the local sea-level change experienced at a particular location compared to the 1981-2000 average, produced as part of UKCP18. For each grid box the time-mean sea-level change projections are provided for the end of each decade (e.g. 2010, 2020, 2030 etc) for three emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and for three percentiles. The emission scenarios are: * RCP2.6 * RCP4.5 * RCP8.5 The percentiles are: * 5th percentile * 50th percentile * 95th percentile Important limitations of the data 1. We cannot rule out substantial additional sea-level rise associated with ice sheet instability processes that are not represented in the UKCP18 projections, as discussed in the recent [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)]. 2. These exploratory projections show sea levels continue to increase beyond 2100 even with large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It should be noted that these projections have a greater degree of uncertainty than the [21st Century Projections] and should therefore be treated as illustrative of the potential future changes. They are designed to be used alongside the 21st Century projections for those interested in exploring post-2100 changes. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The columns (fields) correspond to the end of each decade and the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. '2050 seaLevelAnom' is the sea level anomaly at 2050 compared to the 1981-2000 average. Please note that the styling and filtering options are independent of each other and the attribute you wish to style the data by can be set differently to the one you filter by. Please ensure that you have selected the RCP/percentile and decade you want to both filter and style the data by. Select the cell you are interested in to view all values. To understand how to explore the data please refer to the [New Users ESRI Storymap]. What are the emission scenarios? The 21st Century time-mean sea level projections were produced using some of the future emission scenarios used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is an aggressive mitigation pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced. RCP4.5 is an intermediate ‘stabilisation’ pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by varying levels. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated. Further information is available in the [Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap] and the [RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website]. What are the percentiles? The UKCP18 sea-level projections are based on a large Monte Carlo simulation that represents 450,000 possible outcomes in terms of global mean sea-level change. The Monte Carlo simulation is designed to sample the uncertainties across the different components of sea-level rise, and the amount of warming we see for a given emissions scenario across CMIP5 climate models. The percentiles are used to characterise the uncertainty in the Monte Carlo projections based on the statistical distribution of the 450,000 individual simulation members. For example, the 50th percentile represents the central estimate (median) amongst the model projections. Whilst the 95th percentile value means 95% of the model distribution is below that value and similarly the 5th percentile value means 5% of the model distribution is below that value. The range between the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection range amongst models and corresponds to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”. It should be noted that, there may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world sea level rise lies outside this range. Data source This data is an extract of a larger dataset (every year and more percentiles) which is available on CEDA at [https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a077f4058cda4cd4b37ccfbdf1a6bd29] Data has been extracted from the v20221219 version (downloaded 17/04/2023) of three files: * seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2300.nc * seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2300.nc * seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2300.nc Useful links to find out more * For a comprehensive description of the underpinning science, evaluation and results see the [UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018)]. * For a discussion on ice sheet instability processes in the latest IPCC assessment report, [see Fox-Kemper et al (2021)]. * Technical note for the update to the underpinning data: [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp_tech_note_sea_level_mar23.pdf]. * Further information in the Met Office Climate Data Portal [Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap].