Annual Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.13°C.] What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in annual temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a year they do not represent possible extreme conditions. The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare annual average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. ─────────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────────────── Period │Description ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 1981-2000 baseline │Average temperature (°C) for the period ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 2001-2020 (recent past) │Average temperature (°C) for the period ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 2001-2020 (recent past) change │Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 1.5°C global warming level change│Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 2°C global warming level change │Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 2.5°C global warming level change│Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 3°C global warming level change │Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────────── 4°C global warming level change │Temperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 ─────────────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────────────────────── What is a global warming level? The Annual Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the 1981-2000 baseline, 2001-2020 period and each warming level. They are named 'tas annual change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or historic time period, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is the median value for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_annual_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the [New Users ESRI Storymap]. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas annual change 2.0°C median’ values. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. * The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. * The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. * The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links * For further information on the [UK Climate Projections] (UKCP). * Further information on [understanding climate data] within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.