U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Water Level Station

The points in this layer represent the water level station mean sea level rise projections in centimeters (cm) for years 2020 to 2150. Each location includes five different Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios and three different uncertainty confidence limits (percentiles). The difference in GMSL uses the year 2000 as a "baseline" (0.0m). ──────────────────────────────────┬───────────────── Global Mean Sea Level in year 2100│Scenario Name ──────────────────────────────────┼───────────────── 0.3 m │Low ──────────────────────────────────┼───────────────── 0.5 m │Intermediate-Low ──────────────────────────────────┼───────────────── 1.0 m │Intermediate ──────────────────────────────────┼───────────────── 1.5 m │Intermediate-High ──────────────────────────────────┼───────────────── 2.0 m │High ──────────────────────────────────┴───────────────── The Global Mean Sea Level impacts regions differently due to issues such as vertical land movement/subsidence, regional ocean dynamics, glacier and ice sheet melt, etc. ──────────┬────── Percentile│Name ──────────┼────── 17th │Low ──────────┼────── 50th │Medium ──────────┼────── 83rd │High ──────────┴────── These percentiles are intended to capture uncertainty associated with extrapolating the rate of sea level rise acceleration based on historical observations for each location. Water level stations collect water levels in real time that can be used for operational purposes (vessel navigation, etc.). Some water level stations have been collecting information for over a century. This information is used to determine a trend and also in predictions about the different sea level rise scenarios into the future. This is an example water level station in Sewells Point, Virginia that has been collecting water level data since 1927: [Station Home] [Water Level Station - Sewells Point, Virginia (NOAA)] Most stations also have a Sea Level Trend that can be viewed for better understanding of the changes over time. [Sea Level Trend] [Sea Level Trend for Water Level Station at Sewells Point, Virginia] There are 5 different scenarios and 3 different percentiles that provide a total of 15 different possibilities for interpreting sea level rise for a given location. Using this layer, you can “Filter” the data to select what is most appropriate for your work. Here is how you do that: [Layer configuration for different scenarios]These data were obtained from the [Sea Level Rise Technical Report “Data and Tools” section]. [The Sea Level Rise Technical Report Application Guide] provides a wealth of documentation for interpreting and using the various data products from the Sea Level Rise Technical Report. This water level station layer has a companion layer of the [U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Grid]. Source: Mean Sea Level Dataset for "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines" Citation: Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. [https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf] Scenario: For each of the 5 GMSL scenarios (identified by the rise amounts in meters by 2100 - 0.3 m , 0.5 m. 1.0 m, 1.5 m and 2.0 m), there is a low, medium (med) and high value, corresponding to the 17th, 50th, and 83rd percentiles. Scenarios (15 total): 0.3 - MED, 0.3 - LOW, 0.3 - HIGH, 0.5 - MED, 0.5 - LOW, 0.5 - HIGH, 1.0 - MED, 1.0 - LOW, 1.0 - HIGH, 1.5 - MED, 1.5 - LOW, 1.5 - HIGH, 2.0 - MED, 2.0 - LOW, and 2.0 - HIGH Years (15 total): 2005, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, and 2150 More Info: [https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html]