National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories and Implied National Mitigation (Nationally Determined Contributions) Targets

Annual country-level estimates of net emissions/removals for 215 countries are presented by six sectors, 14 sub-sectors and four gases, for the years 1970-2021. To facilitate retrieval and use, two aggregated indicators, Total GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and Total GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry are presented in addition to the sector-level information. Annual country-level projections of emissions, assuming business-as-usual, are presented for three categories – CO2 emission, GHG emissions excluding LULUCF and GHG emissions including LULUCF – for the years 2022- 2030. National mitigation targets, or the implied targets, as estimated from the Nationally Determined Contributions are presented for the year 2030. Both the conditional, where applicable, and unconditional targets have been presented, along with an average of the two targets. Corresponding aggregates are presented for the above indicators by region and sub-region according to the M49 and the World Economic Outlook Classifications. Estimates of emissions are in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. Sources: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 2022. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data - Detailed data by Party - Annex I. [https://di.unfccc.int/detailed_data_by_party]. Copyright 2022 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Solazzo, E., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Banja, M., Olivier, J.G.J., Grassi, G., Rossi, S., Vignati, E., GHG emissions of all world countries - 2021 Report, EUR 30831 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-41547-3, doi:10.2760/173513, JRC126363; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAOSTAT Climate Change, Emissions, Emission Totals. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. Extracted from: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GT]. IMF staff calculations. Category: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data series: * Annual Net Emissions/Removals * Total GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry * Total GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry * IMF estimated CO2 emissions under a Business as Usual assumption * IMF estimated GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry under a Business as Usual assumption * IMF estimated GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry under a Business as Usual assumption * Implied average (of conditional & unconditional) economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of CO2 emissions * Implied average (of conditional & unconditional) economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry * Implied average (of conditional & unconditional) economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry * Implied conditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of CO2 emissions * Implied conditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry * Implied conditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry * Implied unconditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of CO2 emissions * Implied unconditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry * Implied unconditional economy-wide Nationally Determined Contribution 2030 target level of GHG emissions including land-use, land-use change and forestry Metadata: Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries that are Parties to the Convention submit national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories to the Climate Change secretariat. The reporting and review requirements for GHG inventories are different for Annex I and non-Annex I Parties. For Annex-I Parties, National greenhouse gas inventories have been sourced from UNFCCC Greenhouse Gas Data Interface for the years from 1990 onwards. Emission estimates have been sourced from EDGAR for the years prior to 1990. For Non-Annex-I countries, data on the GHG Data Interface is sparse, with inventories available for different time periods for different parties. Therefore, for the Non-Annex-I Countries, data has been sourced from two databases. For LULUCF, data has been taken from FAOSTAT. For sectors other LULUCF, data has been taken from EDGAR. Methodology: Inventories: The annual greenhouse gas inventories have been sourced from UNFCCC (for Annex-I Parties), and FAO and EDGAR (for non-Annex-I Parties). Inventories have been extrapolated for the year 2021, where not available, using the country-level growth rates derived from the EDGAR dataset. Projections of Emissions: IMF staff estimate the expected level of emissions in 2030 for a given country under a BAU scenario. The 2030 BAU level estimates are developed using a spreadsheet-based model developed by IMF and World Bank staff known as the Carbon Pricing Assessment Tool (CPAT). Using projections of GDP, taxation regimes, global energy prices, along with assumptions on income and price elasticities and rates of technological change, the CPAT estimates energy-related GHG emissions, holding non-energy emissions fixed at 2019 levels (agriculture, waste, land use, land use change and forestry; industrial process emissions are assumed to scale with energy GHGs). National Mitigation Targets derived from Nationally Determined Contributions: The economy-wide 2030 NDC implied target level of emissions reflect IMF calculations based on information obtained from country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the UNFCCC. NDC reports submitted by countries under the UNFCCC embody country emission targets for 2030 and 2050. The targets outlined in the NDCs are not reported according to a uniform or consistent reporting structure / methodology. Some countries report their targets as a percentage reduction from a baseline period, others present their targets as an absolute level of emissions and others report their targets as a percentage reduction from an assumed “business as usual” (BAU) level of emissions. To compare the targets from one country to another the IMF has developed a methodology to estimate the targets and present them in a consistent and standardized manner, wherein, the economy-wide 2030 emission targets in country NDCs reports are converted into an implied target level of emissions. Multiple targets are shown to aid analysis: conditional and unconditional NDCs are treated separately, as are targets with and without land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). For countries where the NDC target is a range, an average is assumed. For countries where the estimated NDC target level is above our estimated BAU we assume that these targets are nonbinding and we do not assume that the country raises emissions above BAU, hence we set the NDC targets as equal to the BAU. Implied NDC estimates are periodically updated as countries revise or clarify their targets to the UNFCCC. Details of the estimation of projections and the translation of NDC targets are given in [IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005]. Disclaimer: The IMF Staff estimates (e.g. Business as Usual Estimates, Emissions Targets) are considered experimental. The sources and methods used to compile these estimates are still in development. Users are encouraged to examine the documentation, metadata, and sources associated with the data. User feedback on the fit-for-use of this product and whether the various dimensions of the product are appropriate is welcome.