NGFS Transition Pathways

The selection of key indicators from the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System ([NGFS]) climate scenarios comprises Primary Energy Mix, Fossil Fuel Prices, Final Energy Mix, Emissions and CCS, Shadow Carbon Price, and Mean Surface Temperature. Sources: [NGFS (2023), Scenarios Portal]; and [IIASA (2023), NGFS Phase 4 Scenario Explorer]. Category: Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy Metadata The framework of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System ([NGFS]) allows to simulate, in a forward-looking fashion, the dynamics within and between the energy, land-use, economy, and climate systems. Consistent with that framework, the NGFS explores a set of seven climate scenarios, which are characterized by their overall level of physical and transition risk. The scenarios in the current Phase IV ([NGFS climate scenarios data set]) are Low Demand, Net Zero 2050, Below 2°C, Delayed Transition, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Current Policies, and Fragmented World. Each NGFS scenario explores a different set of assumptions for how climate policy, emissions, and temperatures evolve. To reflect the uncertainty inherent to modeling climate-related macroeconomic and financial risks, the NGFS scenarios use different models, over and above the range of scenarios. These integrated assessment models (IAMs) are, by their acronyms: GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, and REMIND-MAgPIE. For details please see the [NGFS climate scenarios presentation] the [Climate scenarios technical documentation], and the [User guide for data access]. Methodology The database of key indicators is curated by the IMF in collaboration with the NGFS. The full data set can be found at the original sources. The [license of the NGFS] applies. The transition pathways for the NGFS scenarios have been generated with three well-established integrated assessment models, namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models combine macro-economic, agriculture and land-use, energy, water and climate systems into a common numerical framework that enables the analysis of the complex and non-linear dynamics in and between these components. The IAM results have been downscaled to the level of 140 countries. For details please see the [NGFS climate scenarios presentation], the [Climate scenarios technical documentation], and the [User guide for data access]. The table that follows give the correspondence of the variables in the IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard and the NGFS climate scenarios database. ─────────────────────┬─────────────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Series │IMF Variable │NGFS Variable ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Primary Energy │Coal │Primary Energy|Coal ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Oil │Primary Energy|Oil ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Gas │Primary Energy|Gas ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Biomass │Primary Energy|Biomass ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Hydro │Primary Energy|Hydro ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Wind │Primary Energy|Wind ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Geothermal │Primary Energy|Geothermal ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Solar │Primary Energy|Solar ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Nuclear │Primary Energy|Nuclear ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Energy Prices │Price: Coal │Price|Primary Energy|Coal ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Price: Oil │Price|Primary Energy|Oil ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Price: Gas │Price|Primary Energy|Gas ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Final Energy │Electricity │Final Energy|Electricity ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Gases │Final Energy|Gases ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Heat │Final Energy|Heat ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Hydrogen │Final Energy|Hydrogen ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Liquids │Final Energy|Liquids ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Solids │Final Energy|Solids ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Emissions and │Energy and industrial processes CO2 emissions│= Emissions|CO2 – Emissions|CO2|LULUCF Direct+Indirect CCS^{1)} │ │ ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │LULUCF CO2 emissions │Emissions|CO2|LULUCF Direct+Indirect ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Total non-CO2 emissions │Emissions|Total Non-CO2 ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Fossil energy CCS │Carbon Sequestration|CCS|Fossil ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Bioenergy with CCS │Carbon Sequestration|CCS|Biomass ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │Industrial processes CCS │Carbon Sequestration|CCS|Industrial Processes ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Carbon Price │Price: Carbon │Price|Carbon ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Surface │5th percentile │Country Temperature|Downscaling|5.0th Percentile Temperature^{2)} │ │ ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │50th percentile │Country Temperature|Downscaling|50.0th Percentile ─────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │95th percentile │Country Temperature|Downscaling|95.0th Percentile ─────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ^{1)}World emissions are IMF staff calculations. ^{2)}Postprocessed results. World mean surface temperature relative to pre-industrial levels; variable names “AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile”, “50.0th Percentile”, and “95.0th Percentile”, respectively. Data series: * Primary Energy Mix * Fossil Fuel Prices * Final Energy Mix * Emissions and CCS * Shadow Carbon Price * Mean Surface Temperature