Mississippi Alluvial Valley Forest Birds - Reforestation (Southeast Blueprint Indicator)

Reason for Selection This indicator reflects the importance of restoring large forested tracts in the MAV to provide quality habitat for interior forest breeding birds and other species. Agriculture and development have greatly reduced the extent of the bottomland hardwood forests that historically dominated the MAV, while changes in hydrology and forest management have altered the structure and composition of the remaining forests. This indicator also promotes consistency with the reforestation priorities of the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV), which serve as a key resource for land trusts and other conservation partners in the MAV looking to advance bird conservation objectives through strategic forest management and restoration. Input Data * [MAV Forest Breeding Bird Reforestation Model] from the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV) This model prioritizes places where reforestation would reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of interior forest cores (<250 m from a hostile edge). Its primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches containing interior cores >2,000 ha (~5,000 ac) in size, but it also sought to increase the number and size of cores >5,000 ha (~12,000 acres). At the same time, the model prioritized areas where reforestation would achieve at least 60% forest cover within local (320 sq km) landscapes. Finally, it prioritized higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests that are less flood-prone and therefore at higher risk of agricultural conversion) (LMVJV 2015). The model characteristics are based on the habitat needed to support a source population of three species of interior forest breeding birds: Swainson’s warbler, swallow-tailed kite, and cerulean warbler. These species received the highest overall priority score in [the 1999 Partners in Flight Plan for the MAV] based on their level of conservation concern. Each bird is used to represent an ecological suite of species with similar habitat needs. Swainson’s warbler also represents prothonotary warbler, hooded warbler, wood thrush, and Acadian flycatcher; cerulean warbler also represents Kentucky warbler, summer tanager, yellow-billed cuckoo, and eastern wood-pewee; and swallow-tailed kite also represents red-shouldered hawk, broad-winged hawk, pileated woodpecker, and Cooper’s hawk (Mini and Elliott 2022). * [Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) Forest Protection Model] from the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV) * [Base Blueprint 2022 extent] * [Southeast Blueprint 2023 extent] Mapping Steps * Reproject the MAV Forest Breeding Bird Reforestation Model to NAD 1983 Contiguous USA Albers (EPSG 5070). * Use the MAV Forest Protection Model to calculate the modeling extent of this indicator. The reforestation layer doesn’t have zero values to indicate places that are within the modeling extent but are not a priority for reforestation because they are already forested. Assign a value of 0 to any pixel with a value ≥0 in the protection layer that did not already have a value in the reforestation layer. Zero values are intended to help users better understand the extent of this indicator and make it perform better in online tools. * Clip to the spatial extent of Base Blueprint 2022. * As a final step, clip to the spatial extent of Southeast Blueprint 2023. Note: For more details on the mapping steps, code used to create this layer is available in the [Southeast Blueprint Data Download] under > 6_Code. Final indicator values Indicator values are assigned as follows: 10 = Reforestation most likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (≥90th percentile) 9 = Reforestation most likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (80th to <90th percentile) 8 = Reforestation more likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (70th to <80th percentile) 7 = Reforestation less likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (60th to <70th percentile) 6 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (50th to <60th percentile) 5 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (40th to <50th percentile) 4 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (30th to <40th percentile) 3 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (20th to <30th percentile) 2 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (10th to <20th percentile) 1 = Reforestation least likely to contribute to forest breeding bird habitat needs (<10th percentile) 0 = Not a priority for reforestation Known Issues * Most important areas in this indicator represent priorities for reforestation, as opposed to identifying areas currently in good or ideal ecological condition. * While analysis by the LMVJV has found that it is most important to work in areas scoring higher than 8, we included the full dataset in this indicator. Disclaimer: Comparing with Older Indicator Versions There are numerous problems with using Southeast Blueprint indicators for change analysis. Please consult Blueprint staff if you would like to do this (email [hilary_morris@fws.gov]). Literature Cited Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture. MAV Reforestation Forest Breeding Bird Decision Support Model webpage. [[https://www.lmvjv.org/mav-breedingbird]]. Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture. 2015. MAV Forest Breeding Bird Decision Support Model – Update 2015 documentation. [[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bb3865d2727be6f94acf2fc/t/5bec7942b8a045d24a276e8c/1542224195084/LMVJV_FBBDSM_2015_Summary.pdf]]. Mini, Anne, and Blaine Elliott. March 17, 2022. Forest conservation priorities for landbirds in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Webinar hosted by the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy. [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggYjN3XdfMM&t=819s]]. Twedt, D.J., D. Pashley, C. Hunter, A. Mueller, C. Brown, and R. Ford. 1999. Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan for the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. [[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bb3865d2727be6f94acf2fc/t/5d3095a9e852150001d7aacd/1563465138676/MAV_PIF_PLAN+1999.pdf]].