Download: 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (FGDB, 271MB)

##### Abstract The 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA18) provides an evaluation of the likelihood and intensity (“how big and how often”) of the occurrence of tropical cyclone winds across the Australian region, covering mainland Australia, islands and adjacent waters. It is a probabilistic evaluation of the expected maximum gust wind speeds with a range of annual exceedance probabilities (or conversely, average recurrence intervals). The assessment is derived using a statistical-parametric model developed by Geoscience Australia called the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM). Maximum 0.2-second duration, 10-metre above ground wind speeds are calculated for Standard Australia's AS/NZS 1170.2 (2011) terrain category 2 (0.02 m roughness length) surface conditions, over a 0.02 degree grid across Australia. Maps of average recurrence interval (ARI) wind speeds of 100- and 500-year ARI are provided in a separate product suite. ##### Currency Date modified: 9 April 2019 Modification frequency: As needed ##### Data extent Coordinate Reference: WGS84 Spatial extent North: -5° South: -35° East: 165° West: 100° The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) used in the 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA18) focuses on regions where cyclones have historically occurred and are statistically likely to recur. Areas south of latitude 35° south are generally too far from the tropics to experience direct cyclone impacts. As a result, the modelling and results in TCHA18 are limited to the region between latitudes 5° south and 35° south. ##### Source information Data supplied and downloaded on 18 August 2025. Catalogue entry: [Product catalogue] ##### Lineage statement The TCHA18 is an update to the previous Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA14) and uses an updated version of TCRM. More information on the updates made to TCRM and a comparison of TCHA18 and TCHA14 are provided in the TCHA18 report. Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment 2018 Release document: [Tropical Cyclone Hazard ] [Assessment 2018] ##### Data dictionary ───────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Attribute name │Description ───────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Raw Service Pixel Value│Represents the maximum wind speed (in km/h) for the recurrence interval. ───────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Class Name │Provides the hazard class that the maximum wind speed value is categorised within. ───────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ##### Other relevant datasets * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 5 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 10 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 20 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 25 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 50 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 100 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 200 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 250 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 500 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 1,000 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 2,000 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 5,000 Years] * [2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment - Recurrence Period 10,000 Years] ##### Contact Geoscience Australia, [hazards@ga.gov.au]