Australian crop report: June 2015 No.174

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis. 


 2015-16 winter crop production  • Seasonal conditions have been generally favourable for the start of the 2015-16 winter cropping season. Autumn rainfall was average to above average in many cropping regions. This rainfall increased upper layer soil moisture levels and improved conditions for the planting of winter crops. 
• The latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 May 2015, suggests there will be around average winter rainfall in the cropping regions of Victoria and South Australia and above average rainfall in the cropping regions of Western Australia. However, it is likely there will be below average winter rainfall in the cropping regions of southern Queensland and most of New South Wales. 
• Beyond the three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), there is a risk of below average spring rainfall in eastern Australia (including South Australia). According to the Bureau of Meteorology (ENSO Wrap-Up, issued 26 May 2015), El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen, which increases the likelihood that rainfall in eastern Australia will be below average. However, the impact on crop yields from an El Nino event is not uniform and is difficult to predict because the timing of any rainfall is also significant. An El Nino event typically has less impact on rainfall in Western Australia than in eastern Australia. 
• The total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent in 2015-16 to 22.9 million hectares, largely because of an expected increase in the area planted to barley and pulses. 
• Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent to 38.7 million tonnes, which reflects the forecast increase in planted area. For the major crops: wheat production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 23.6 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 3 million tonnes. Among other crops, production of oats and pulses is forecast to increase because of expected increases in planted area. 
 2014-15 summer crop production  • Total summer crop production is estimated to have declined by 4 per cent in 2014-15 to 3.8 million tonnes, driven by falls in production of cotton and rice. However, production of grain sorghum increased. 


Tags: AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURE Crops, AGRICULTURE Crops statistics, Australian, CLIMATE AND WEATHER El Nino, Farming, INDUSTRY, INDUSTRY Primary, June, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, Western Australia, autumn, autumn rainfall, climatic and agronomic conditions, crop development, crop planting, crops, production, soil moisture conditions, south-eastern Australia, spring, spring rainfall, statistics, summer, summer rainfall, winter, winter rainfall
Organization: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences