2016 SoE Marine Chapter - Effectiveness of Management - Climate variability and climate change

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Effectiveness of marine management of climate variability and climate change". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record.

DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE BEING MANAGED, AND ITS IMPACT
Anthropogenic ocean warming, superimposed on natural climate variations – in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation and decadal variability – and ocean acidification pose risks to Australia’s coral reef ecosystems, giant kelp and other habitats. In response, there have been significant shifts in the ranges of various invertebrates and fish. Recent reviews of climate change impacts and adaptation on Australia’s commercial marine fisheries and marine ecosystems discuss the implications for marine management.
On the Great Barrier Reef, rising summer sea temperatures and steadily increasing ocean acidity increase the risk of mass coral bleaching. The cumulative impacts of economic activities – port dredging and runoff of sediment, nutrients and fertiliser from agriculture, for example – cause coral reefs to become stressed and more prone to the effects of climate change. More broadly around Australia, ocean warming and changes in currents are affecting fisheries and aquaculture. 
World-leading research on these risks is ongoing through Australian universities and research institutes and in consequence the understanding of physical processes is high. Understanding of the economic and cultural significance of the marine environment for Australia is lower, but considerable value is attributed to coastal regions in temperate and tropical Australia. Understanding of the management strategies required to combat the risks is lower still due at least in part to its complexity. Research is ongoing, but a greater investment in developing, implementing and monitoring strategies, monitoring and understanding change, and systematic acquisition and storage of data, is required.
DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT
The assessment is based on published literature – a list is provided in the attached Expert Assessment.
2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details]
• Understanding of pressure: Understanding of climate variability and its management is reasonably high and improving with government funding for well-established and internationally-respected institutions. 
• Planning associated with management of pressure: In-depth planning for icons such as the Great Barrier Reef continues, and commercial fisheries are aware of the need to plan around climate variability. Elsewhere efforts are more patchy.
• Input for informing management of pressure: Short-term funding cycles are a continuing threat to effective management for long-term goals and sustainability.
• Processes associated with developing, monitoring, and updating management: Management tools and approaches exist and in some cases are applied; stronger regulation is required for long-term environmental health.
• Outputs from management framework in place: Conflicting interests between economic development and the environment are leading to a gradual long-term environmental declines, which current management is not addressing.
• Outcomes of management framework in place: Further policy and management controls are required to address declining environmental health and emerging risks of climate change.
CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT
Not specified. Review of additional literature has been conducted since 2011 SoE Assessment.

Tags: climate change, climate variability, environmental management, expert assessment
Organization: Australian Ocean Data Network