AndreaBozzo/ceres-open-data-index huggingface dataset:
Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what?

Assessing the accuracy of predictive models is critical because predictive models have been increasingly used across various disciplines and predictive accuracy determines the quality of resultant predictions. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r2) are among the most widely used measures for assessing predictive models for numerical data, although they are argued to be biased, insufficient and misleading. In this study, geometrical graphs were used to illustrate what were used in the calculation of r and r2 and simulations were used to demonstrate the behaviour of r and r2 and to compare three accuracy measures under various scenarios. Relevant confusions about r and r2, has been clarified. The calculation of r and r2 is not based on the differences between the predicted and observed values. The existing error measures suffer various limitations and are unable to tell the accuracy. Variance explained by predictive models based on cross-validation (VEcv) is free of these limitations and is a reliable accuracy measure. Legates and McCabe’s efficiency (E1) is also an alternative accuracy measure. The r and r2 do not measure the accuracy and are incorrect accuracy measures. The existing error measures suffer limitations. VEcv and E1 are recommended for assessing the accuracy. The applications of these accuracy measures would encourage accuracy-improved predictive models to be developed to generate predictions for evidence-informed decision-making.
Citation: Li J (2017) Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what? PLoS ONE 12(8): e0183250. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183250

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Published_External, predictive accuracy, predictive models
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Insights to the evolution of the Thomson Orogen from geochronology, geochemistry and zircon isotopic studies of magmatic rocks

Zircon U-Pb ages, εHf(t) and δ18O isotopic data, geochemistry and limited Sm-Nd results mostly from deep basement drill cores from undercover parts of the Thomson Orogen, provide strong temporal links with outcropping regions of the orogen as well as important clues for its evolution and relationship with the Lachlan Orogen. SHRIMP U–Pb ages from three Early Ordovician volcanic samples and one granite from the undercover, Thomson Orogen shows that magmatism of this age is widespread across the central, undercover regions of the orogen and occurred in a narrow time-window between 480 Ma and 470 Ma. These rocks have evolved, εHf(t)zrn (-6.26 to -12.18), εNd (-7.1 to -11.3), and supracrustal δ18Ozrn (7.01–8.50‰) which is in stark contrast to the Early Ordovician rocks in the Lachlan Orogen, that are isotopically juvenile. Two samples have latest Silurian to earliest Devonian ages (1586685 DIO Ella 1; 425.4 ± 6.6 Ma and 2122055 Hungerford Granite; 419.1 ± 2.5) and coincide with a major period of intrusive magmatism in the southern Thomson and the Eastern and Central Lachlan Orogen. These samples have evolved εHf(t)zrn (-4.62 to -6.42) and supracrustal δ18Ozrn (9.26–10.29‰) which is similar to Lachlan Orogen rocks emplaced during this time. Four samples have mid Early to early Late Devonian ages (408–382 Ma) and appear to have been emplaced in a generally extensional tectonic regime. Two of these are from the Gumbardo Formation (1682891 PPC Carlow 1 and 1682892 PPC Gumbardo 1), the basal unit of the Adavale Basin, and constrain its opening to between 408 Ma and 403 Ma. The other two samples (1585223 AAE Towerhill 1 and 2122056 Currawinya Granite) have ages of ca. 382 Ma. These latter samples generally show a shift towards more juvenile εHf(t)zrn and mantle-like δ18Ozrn values, a trend that is also seen in rocks of this age in the Lachlan Orogen. 
Collectively, zircon Hf and O isotopes show that magmatism in the central, undercover part of the Thomson Orogen was initially derived from isotopically evolved magma sources but progressed to more juvenile sources during the Devonian. Furthermore, it appears that samples from the Thomson Orogen may fall along two distinct Hf-O isotopic mixing trends. One trend, appears to have incorporated an older (more evolved) supracrustal component and occurs in the northern two-thirds of the Thomson Orogen, while the other trend is generally less evolved and occurs in the southern third of the Thomson Orogen and is geographically continuous with the Lachlan Orogen.
Citation: A. J. Cross, D. J. Purdy, D. C. Champion, D. D. Brown, C. Siégel &amp; R. A. Armstrong (2018) Insights into the evolution of the Thomson Orogen from geochronology, geochemistry, and zircon isotopic studies of magmatic rocks, Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, 65:7-8, 987-1008, DOI: 10.1080/08120099.2018.1515791

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Eastern Australia, Published_External, Thomson Orogen, drill core, geochemistry, geochronology, magnetic rocks, zircon, zircon Hf and O isotopes
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
From discordance to discovery: extracting fluid-rock interaction timescales through zircon U-Pb analyses in the Arunta region, Central Australia

Zircon remains a preferred mineral for uranium-lead (U-Pb) geochronology due to its chemical durability. Despite its robustness, zircon is susceptible to isotopic modifications at lower temperatures in the presence of fluids, leading to discordant U-Pb data. These discordant data, through often overlooked, can illuminate the timing of fluid-related disturbance. Here we employ Bayesian modelling via a Monte Carlo approach to investigate the timing of disturbances in the Arunta region of central Australia. Renowned for its complex geological history, marked by multiple episodes of metamorphism and magmatism spanning more than 1.5 Ga, the Arunta region serves as an ideal case setting for understanding the interactions between geological processes and zircon U-Pb system integrity. By analysing discordant U-Pb data we reveal Pb-loss events corresponding to major tectonothermal episodes, notably the Petermann Orogeny and the Alice Springs Orogeny. These insights provide better temporal and spatial constraints on the complex tectonometamorphic history of the Arunta region and underscore the utility of discordant U-Pb data for reconstructing detailed geological histories.&nbsp;These results advocate for a reassessment of discordant U-Pb data, promoting their use as a valuable tool for understanding fluid mobility in the crust.

Citation: Lucy M. Mathieson, C.L. Kirkland, S. Bodorkos, M. Daggitt; From discordance to discovery: extracting fluid–rock interaction timescales through zircon U–Pb analyses in the Arunta region, Central Australia. Journal of the Geological Society 2025;; 182 (4): jgs2024–111. doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/jgs2024-111

Tags: EFTF – Exploring for the Future, Geochronology, U-Pb geochronology, fluid rock interaction, zircon
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
High-resolution Marine Heat Wave Mapping in Australasian waters using Himawari-8 SST and SSTAARS data

Marine heat waves (MHWs) have significant ecological and economic impact. Consequently, there is a pressing need to map the temporal and spatial patterns of MHWs, for both historical and near real-time events. Satellite remote sensing of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) provides fundamental data for the mapping of MHWs. This study used high-resolution Himarwari-8 SST and the Sea Surface Temperature Atlas of the Australian Regional Seas (SSTAARS) data, which have a spatial resolution of ~ 2 km, to map recent and near real-time MHW events in waters around Australasia. The high-resolution MHWs mapping has identified two broad areas of MHW hotspots between August 2015 and February 2019.  Firstly, the Tropical Warm Pool region (including the GBR and part of the Coral Sea) between the maritime continent and the Australian continent was affected by strong and prolonged MHW conditions for the greater part of 2016. The unusually strong 2015-16 El Niño event was believed to be the primary driver for the MHWs, and the air-sea heat flux rather than the ocean advection was the main local process controlling the heat budget. Secondly, the south-east of the study area (including Australia’s south-east coast, the Tasman Sea and New Zealand’s east coast) suffered severe MHWs in 2015-16, 2017-18 and 2018-19. ENSO played little role in the generation of the MHWs in this region. Instead, the MHWs in the western part of this region were more likely due to the extensive heat transported by the East Australia Current; while in the eastern part, the MHWs were more likely due to more local climate modes such as SAM. This mapping has not only enhanced our understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of several previously documented MHWs but also identified and mapped several previously undocumented MHWs. The case study in the Beagle Marine Park proved the values of Himawari-8 SST and SSTAARS data in mapping fine details of MHWs in a small area, which are not possible for broad-scale SST data such as the Optimal Interpolated SST (OISST) which has a spatial resolution of ~ 25 km. The case study revealed much stronger MHW influence in the shallow waters east of the marine park where most of the important rocky reef habitats exist. The near-real time MHWs mapping shows that both the GBR and the Coral Sea marine parks were experiencing MHW conditions in early March 2020, with most affected areas having strong MHW class.

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Himawari-8, Marine Heat Waves - MHW, Published_External, Sea Surface Temperature -SST, Surface Temperature Atlas of the Australian Regional Seas - SSTAARS
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Australia’s CO2 geological storage potential and matching of emission sources to potential sinks

Within the GEODISC program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre (APCRC), Geoscience Australia (GA) and the University of New South Wales (UNSW) have completed an analysis of the potential for the geological storage of CO2. The geological analysis assessed over 100 potential environmentally sustainable sites for CO2 injection (ESSCIs) by applying a deterministic risk assessment based on the five factors of: storage capacity, injectivity potential, site details, containment and natural resources. Utilising a risked storage capacity suggests that at a regional scale Australia has a CO2 storage potential in excess of 1600 years of current annual total net emissions. Whilst this estimate does give an idea of the enormous magnitude of the geological storage potential of CO2 in Australia, it does not account for various factors that are evident in source to sink matching. If preferences due to source to sink matching are incorporated, and an assumption is made that some economic imperative will apply to encourage geological storage of CO2, then a more realistic analysis can be derived. In such a case, Australia may have the potential to store a maximum of 25% of our total annual net emissions, or approximately 100–115 Mt CO2 per year.
Citation: Bradshaw, J. Allinson, G. Bradshaw, B.E. Nguyen, V. Rigg, A.J. Spencer, L. Wilson, P. (2004) Australia’s CO2 geological storage potential and matching of emission sources to potential sinks, Energy, Volume 29, Issues 9–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2004.03.064.

Tags: Earth Sciences, External Publication, Published_External
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Significance of the connection between bedrock, alluvium and streams: A spatial and temporal hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical assessment from Queensland, Australia

Catchment-scale hydrological and hydrogeological investigations commonly conclude by finding that particular stream reaches are either gaining or losing; they also often assume that the influence of bedrock aquifers on catchment water balances and water quality is insignificant. However, in many cases, such broad findings are likely to oversimplify the spatial and temporal complexity of the connections between the different hydrological system components, particularly in regions dominated by cycles of droughts and flooding. From a modelling perspective, such oversimplifications can have serious implications on the process of identifying the magnitude and direction of the exchange fluxes between the surface and groundwater systems.
In this study, we use 3D geological modelling and historic water chemistry and hydraulic records to identify the origins of groundwater at different locations in the alluvium and along the course of streams in the Lockyer Valley (Queensland, Australia), a catchment impacted by a severe drought (‘Millennium Drought’) from 1998 to 2009, followed by extensive flooding in 2011. We also demonstrate how discharge from the sub-alluvial regional-scale volcanic and sedimentary bedrock influences the water balance and water quality of the alluvium and streams. The investigation of aquifer geometry via development of a three-dimensional geological model combined with an assessment of hydraulic data provided important insights on groundwater flow paths and helped to identify areas where bedrock aquifers interact with shallow alluvial aquifers and streams. Multivariate statistical techniques were then applied as an additional line of evidence to groundwater and surface water hydrochemical data from large historical datasets. This confirmed that most sub-catchments within the Lockyer Valley have distinct water chemistry patterns, which result from mixing of different water sources, including discharge from the sub-alluvial bedrock. Importantly, in addition to the observed spatial variability, time-series hydrochemical groundwater and surface water data further demonstrated that the hydraulic connection between alluvial aquifers, streams and sub-alluvial bedrock aquifers is temporally dynamic with very significant changes occurring at the transition from normal to drought conditions and following flooding, affecting both catchment water quality and water balances.
Citation: M. Raiber, S. Lewis, D.I. Cendón, T. Cui, M.E. Cox, M. Gilfedder, D.W. Rassam, Significance of the connection between bedrock, alluvium and streams: A spatial and temporal hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical assessment from Queensland, Australia, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 569, 2019, ISSN 0022-1694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.020.

Tags: 3D geological modelling, Aquifer interaction, Bedrock, EARTH SCIENCES, Groundwater-surface water interaction, Hydrochemistry, Lockyer Valley, Queensland, Published_External, recharge
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
A geophysical investigation of the 2018 Lake Muir earthquake sequence: reactivated Precambrian structures controlling modern seismicity

Seismicity in the intraplate southwest of Western Australia is poorly understood, despite evidence for potentially damaging earthquakes of magnitude&gt;M6. Identifying stress-focusing geological structures near significant earthquake sequences assists in understanding why these earthquakes occur in seemingly random locations across a region of more than 250 000 km2. On 16 September 2018, an ML5.7 earthquake occurred near Lake Muir in the southwest of Western Australia and was followed by an ML5.4 aftershock. The main earthquake formed a mainly northtrending fault scarp ~5 km in length and with a maximum vertical displacement of ~40 cm. The main event was followed by a series of aftershocks, one of which had a magnitude of ML5.4. Using high-resolution aeromagnetic data, we analyse bedrock geology in a wide area surrounding the new scarp and map a series of major east–west-trending faults segmenting eight distinct geological domains, as well as a network of less prominent northwest-trending faults, one of which aligns with the southern segment of the scarp. Surface faulting, surface deformation and earthquake focal mechanism studies suggest movements on north- and northeast-trending structures. The main shock, the aftershocks, surface faulting and changes in InSAR-derived surface elevation all occur in a region bounded to the south by a prominent northwest-trending fault and to the north by a west-northwest-trending domain-bounding structure. Thus, we interpret the north-trending thrust fault associated with the main Lake Muir event as due to local stress concentration of the regional east–west stress field at the intersection of these structures. Further, we propose that a particularly large west-northwest-trending structure may be broadly focusing stress in the Lake Muir area. These findings encourage similar studies to be undertaken in other areas of Australia’s southwest to further the current understanding of seismic release in the region.
Citation: S. Standen, M. Dentith &amp; D. Clark (2021) A geophysical investigation of the 2018 Lake Muir earthquake sequence: reactivated Precambrian structures controlling modern seismicity,Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, 68:5, 717-730, DOI: 10.1080/08120099.2021.1848924

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Earthquake Hazard, Lake Muir, Natural Hazards, Published_External, South West seismic zone, aeromagnetic interpretation, earthquakes, intraplate, neotectonics, reactivation, seismicity, stress concentrator
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Projection-Independent Earth-Solar-Sensor Geometry for Surface Reflectance Correction

We present a novel method for calculating Earth-solar-sensor geometry for remote sensing data in an arbitrary map projection. The geometry algorithm uses a recursive bisection and bilinear interpolation procedure to generate geodetic coordinates, accurate astronomical calculation to determine satellite position as a function of time, and a sampling-gridding-interpolation procedure to produce per-pixel view and illumination geometry. The algorithm is implemented using open-source numeric and geospatial components. We also discuss the use of the algorithm in production-scale NBAR calculations for UTM Landsat data.
Paper prepared for the 2013 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Melbourne.

Tags: Earth Sciences, External Publication, Landsat, NBAR, Published_External, geometry, reflectance
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Evaluating the economic fairways for hydrogen production in Australia

Assessments of hydrogen project viability typically focus on valuating specific sites for development, or providing generic cost-estimates that are independent of location. In reality, the success of hydrogen projects will be intimately linked to the availability of local energy resources, access to key infrastructure and water supplies, and the distance to export ports and energy markets. In this paper, we present an economic model that incorporates assessments of these regional factors to identify areas of high economic potential for hydrogen production { the so-called \Economic Fairways" for such projects. In doing so, the model provides a tool that can be used to inform investors and policy makers on the available opportunities for hydrogen development and their infrastructure requirements. The model includes analysis of the regional economic potential for both blue and green hydrogen projects. It accounts for hydrogen production from renewable (wind and solar) sources, as well as non-renewable sources (steam-methane reformation and coal gasification) combined with carbon capture and storage. Results from case studies conducted with the tool are presented, illustrating the potential for hydrogen production across Australia.
Citation: Stuart D.C. Walsh, Laura Easton, Zhehan Weng, Changlong Wang, Joseph Moloney, Andrew Feitz, Evaluating the economic fairways for hydrogen  production in Australia, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Volume 46, Issue 73, 2021, Pages 35985-35996, ISSN 0360-3199,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.08.142.

Tags: Blue Hydrogen, EARTH SCIENCES, Economic Fairways, Green Hydrogen, Integrated Economic Assessment, Numerical Cost Modelling
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Seismotectonic model and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies in a belt of intense tectonic activity that experiences high levels of seismicity. Although this seismicity poses significant risks to society, the Building Code of PNG and its underpinning seismic loading requirements have not been revised since 1982. This study aims to partially address this gap by updating the seismic zoning map on which the earthquake loading component of the building code is based. We performed a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for PNG using the OpenQuake software developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (Pagani et al. 2014). Among other enhancements, for the first time together with background sources, individual fault sources are implemented to represent active major and microplate boundaries in the region to better constrain the earthquake-rate and seismic-source models. The seismic-source model also models intraslab, Wadati–Benioff zone seismicity in a more realistic way using a continuous slab volume to constrain the finite ruptures of such events. 
The results suggest a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of the Huon Peninsula and the New Britain – Bougainville region, and a relatively low level of hazard in the southwestern part of mainland PNG. In comparison with the seismic zonation map in the current design standard, it can be noted that the spatial distribution of seismic hazard used for building design does not match the bedrock hazard distribution of this study. In particular, the high seismic hazard of the Huon Peninsula in the revised assessment is not captured in the current building code of PNG.
Citation: Ghasemi, H., Cummins, P., Weatherill, G. et al. Seismotectonic model and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea. Bull Earthquake Eng, 18, 6571–6605 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00966-1

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Hazard Response, Natural Hazards, OTHER EARTH SCIENCES, Pacific Nations, Papua New Guinea - PNG, Published_External, building code, earthquakes, seismic hazard map, sesimic zoning, {0}
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data
Stochastic Modelling of Mineral Exploration Targets

Rapid, efficient, and accurate prediction of mineral occurrence that takes uncertainty into 20 account is essential to optimise defining exploration targets. Traditional approaches to mineral 21 potential mapping often fail to fully appreciate spatial uncertainties of input predictors and their 22 spatial cross-correlation. In this study a stochastic technique based on multivariate 23 geostatistical simulations and ensemble tree-based learners is introduced for predicting and 24 uncertainty quantification of mineral exploration targets. The technique is tested on a synthetic 25 case inspired by the characteristics of a hydrothermal mineral system model and a real-world 26 dataset from the Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia. Results from the two cases proved the 27 superior performance and robustness of the proposed stochastic technique, especially when 28 dealing with high dimensional and large data sets.
Citation: Talebi, H., Mueller, U., Peeters, L.J.M. et al. Stochastic Modelling of Mineral Exploration Targets. Math Geosci 54, 593–621 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-021-09989-z

Tags: EARTH SCIENCES, Exploration Geochemistry, Published_External, Stochastic Analysis and Modelling, machine Learning, mineral potential mapping, multivariate geostatistical simulation, predictive model, spatial data
Organization: Geoscience Australia Data