Climate informed modelling of landscape managed threatened species - Mammals

Modelling of landscape capacity for 75 landscape-managed NSW threatened species. 

Landscape capacity is a measure of how usable habitat is for supporting populations based on the quality of habitat and how easily species can move across the landscape to access sufficient resources to support a population. This project maps climate-informed landscape capacity. This mapping shows how well NSW landscapes can support fauna populations into future climate. The location of climate refugia are identified. These are areas that support species populations through time, from pre-industrial times and into the future.

The methods and descriptions of outputs are provided in the <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project">project report</a>.

<a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf">Two page species forecasts</a> summarise results for each species. 

Each species model is projected into NARCliM (v1.0) climate futures. The dataset comprises: individual models for 1750, 2000, 2030 and 2070 epochs; 'consensus' maps across 12 climate models for 2070; and multi-species refugia and landscape capacity across time maps (<a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c">for the 75 threatened species</a>, and also including site-managed species <a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b">here</a>). 

The individual species geotiff files are grouped into zip files which are large and may take considerable time to download.

These resources are outputs of the Persistence in the Landscape Project (PLP). 

This item contains a zip file of landscape capacity rasters for the following species, for pre-industrial (1750), 2000, 2030 and 2070, based on NARCliM 1.0 projections:
<ul>
<li><em>Aepyprymnus rufescens</em>, <strong>Rufous Bettong</strong></li>
<li><em>Cercartetus nanus</em>, <strong>Eastern Pygmy-possum</strong></li>
<li><em>Dasyurus maculatus</em>, <strong>Spotted-tailed Quoll</strong></li>
<li><em>Macropus dorsalis</em>, <strong>Black-striped Wallaby</strong></li>
<li><em>Macropus parma</em>, <strong>Parma Wallaby</strong> - updated to <em>Notamacropus parma</em> in the report</li>
<li><em>Ningaui yvonneae</em>, <strong>Southern Ningaui</strong></li>
<li><em>Petauroides volans</em>, <strong>Southern Greater Glider</strong></li>
<li><em>Petaurus norfolcensis</em>, <strong>Squirrel Glider</strong></li>
<li><em>Phascogale tapoatafa</em>, <strong>Brush-tailed Phascogale</strong></li>
<li><em>Pseudomys oralis</em>, <strong>Hastings River Mouse</strong></li>
<li><em>Thylogale stigmatica</em>, <strong>Red-legged Pademelon</strong></li>
</ul>

Tags: Land Management and Biodiversity Conservation, Multiple species modelling, NARCliM, REMP, Saving our species, Species distribution model, Threatened species, adaptation to climate change
Organization: NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water