Climate informed modelling of landscape managed threatened species - Birds

Modelling of landscape capacity for 75 landscape-managed NSW threatened species. 

Landscape capacity is a measure of how usable habitat is for supporting populations based on the quality of habitat and how easily species can move across the landscape to access sufficient resources to support a population. This project maps climate-informed landscape capacity. This mapping shows how well NSW landscapes can support fauna populations into future climate. The location of climate refugia are identified. These are areas that support species populations through time, from pre-industrial times and into the future.

The methods and descriptions of outputs are provided in the <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project">project report</a>.

<a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf">Two page species forecasts</a> summarise results for each species. 

Each species model is projected into NARCliM (v1.0) climate futures. The dataset comprises: individual models for 1750, 2000, 2030 and 2070 epochs; 'consensus' maps across 12 climate models for 2070; and multi-species refugia and landscape capacity across time maps (<a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c">for the 75 threatened species</a>, and also including site-managed species <a href="https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b">here</a>). 

The individual species geotiff files are grouped into zip files which are large and may take considerable time to download.

These resources are outputs of the Persistence in the Landscape Project (PLP). 

This item contains landscape capacity rasters for the following species, for pre-industrial (1750), 2000, 2030 and 2070, based on NARCliM 1.0 projections:
<ul>
<li><em>Artamus cyanopterus cyanopterus</em>,    <strong>Dusky Woodswallow</strong></li>
<li><em>Atrichornis rufescens</em>,  <strong>Rufous Scrub-bird</strong></li>
<li><em>Botaurus poiciloptilus</em>, <strong>Australasian Bittern</strong></li>
<li><em>Burhinus grallarius</em>,    <strong>Bush Stone-curlew</strong></li>
<li><em>Callocephalon fimbriatum</em>, <strong>Gang-gang Cockatoo</strong></li>
<li><em>Calyptorhynchus banksii samueli</em>, <strong>Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo</strong> (inland subspecies)</li>
<li><em>Calyptorhynchus lathami</em>, <strong>South-eastern Glossy Black-Cockatoo</strong>- updated to <em>Calyptorhynchus lathami lathami</em> in the report</li>
<li><em>Certhionyx variegatus</em>, <strong>Pied Honeyeater</strong></li>
<li><em>Chthonicola sagittata</em>, <strong>Speckled Warbler</strong> - updated to <em>Pyrrholaemus sagittatus</em> in the report</li>
<li><em>Cinclosoma castanotum</em>, <strong>Chestnut Quail-thrush</strong></li>
<li><em>Circus assimilis</em>, <strong>Spotted Harrier</strong></li>
<li><em>Climacteris picumnus victoriae</em>, <strong>Brown Treecreeper</strong> (eastern subspecies)</li>
<li><em>Coracina lineata</em>, <strong>Barred Cuckoo-shrike</strong></li>
<li><em>Cyclopsitta diophthalma coxeni</em>, <strong>Coxen's Fig-Parrot</strong></li>
<li><em>Daphoenositta chrysoptera</em>, <strong>Varied Sittella</strong></li>
<li><em>Dasyornis brachypterus</em>, <strong>Eastern Bristlebird</strong></li>
<li><em>Glossopsitta pusilla</em>, <strong>Little Lorikeet</strong> - updated to <em>Parvipsitta pusilla</em> in the report </li>
<li><em>Grantiella picta</em>, <strong>Painted Honeyeater</strong></li>
<li><em>Hieraaetus morphnoides</em>, <strong>Little Eagle</strong></li>
<li><em>Ixobrychus flavicollis</em>, <strong>Black Bittern</strong></li>
<li><em>Lathamus discolor</em>, <strong>Swift Parrot</strong></li>
<li><em>Lophochroa leadbeateri</em>, <strong>Pink Cockatoo</strong></li>
<li><em>Melanodryas cucullata cucullata</em>, <strong>Hooded Robin</strong> (south-eastern form)</li>
<li><em>Melithreptus gularis gularis</em>, <strong>Black-chinned Honeyeater</strong> (eastern subspecies)</li>
<li><em>Menura alberti</em>, <strong>Albert's Lyrebird</strong></li>
<li><em>Neophema pulchella</em>, <strong>Turquoise Parrot</strong></li>
<li><em>Ninox connivens</em>, <strong>Barking Owl</strong></li>
<li><em>Ninox strenua</em>, <strong>Powerful Owl</strong></li>
<li><em>Oxyura australis</em>, <strong>Blue-billed Duck</strong></li>
<li><em>Pachycephala inornata</em>, <strong>Gilbert's Whistler</strong></li>
<li><em>Pachycephala olivacea</em>, <strong>Olive Whistler</strong></li>
<li><em>Pandion cristatus</em>, <strong>Eastern Osprey</strong></li>
<li><em>Petroica boodang</em>, <strong>Scarlet Robin</strong></li>
<li><em>Petroica phoenicea</em>, <strong>Flame Robin</strong></li>
<li><em>Podargus ocellatus</em>, <strong>Marbled Frogmouth</strong></li>
<li><em>Polytelis swainsonii</em>, <strong>Superb Parrot</strong> (breeding)</li>
<li><em>Ptilinopus magnificus</em>, <strong>Wompoo Fruit-Dove</strong></li>
<li><em>Ptilinopus regina</em>, <strong>Rose-crowned Fruit-Dove</strong></li>
<li><em>Stagonopleura guttata</em>, <strong>Diamond Firetail</strong></li>
<li><em>Stictonetta naevosa</em>, <strong>Freckled Duck</strong></li>
<li><em>Tyto tenebricosa</em>, <strong>Sooty Owl</strong></li>
</ul>

Tags: Land Management and Biodiversity Conservation, Multiple species modelling, NARCliM, REMP, Saving our species, Species distribution model, Threatened species, adaptation to climate change
Organization: NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water