Current and future projected climate suitability for seven invasive tropical plant species in the Wet Tropics. (NERP TE 7.2, CSIRO, source: CliMond, CSIRO)

This dataset shows the projected current and future (2070) climatic suitability for the invasive plant species Clidemia hirta, Hiptage benghalensis, Miconia calvescen, Miconia nervosa, Miconia racemose, Stevia ovata,and Turbina corymbosa across North Queensland. Modelled using CLIMEX.

Method:

CLIMEX (Sutherst &amp; Maywald 1985; Sutherst et al. 2007) is a modelling package that enables users to model the climatic potential distribution of organisms based primarily on their current distribution, through taking into consideration climate response information from other knowledge domains if this is available.

CLIMEX is a dynamic model that integrates the weekly responses of a population to climate using a series of annual indices.  CLIMEX uses an annual growth index (GIA) to describe the potential for population growth as a function of soil moisture and temperature during favourable conditions, and up to eight stress indices (cold, wet, hot, dry, cold-wet, cold-dry, hot-wet and hot-dry) to determine the probability that the population can survive unfavourable conditions.  The growth and stress indices are calculated weekly and are then combined into an overall annual index of climatic suitability, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which gives an overall measure of the potential of a given location to support a permanent population of the species.  The Ecoclimatic Index (EI), ranges from 0 for locations at which the species is not able to persist to 100 for locations that are optimal for the species year round.

CLIMEX is a bioclimatic model, relying on a database of climatic variables of long-term monthly precipitation totals, averages of minimum and maximum temperatures, and averages of relative humidity at 09:00 and 15:00 hours.  The historical climate dataset used for these analyses was the CliMond dataset (www.climond.org), with a spatial resolution of 10’, using station records centred on 1975 (Kriticos et al. 2012).

The impacts of climate change on the potential for each species to grow or pose an invasion risk were explored using a climate scenario model for 2070 taken from the CliMond dataset (Kriticos et al. 2012).  The selected climate datasets were developed using the A1B emission scenario applied to the CSIRO Mk 3.0 global climate model. 

For each species, we used parameter sets that were either published or which we have developed.

The CLIMEX parameters used in the model for Clidemia hirta are published in:
Breadon R. C., Brooks S. J. &amp; Murphy H. T. (2012) Biology of Australian Weeds: Clidemia hirta L.D.Don. Plant Protection Quarterly 27, 3-18.

The CLIMEX parameters used in the model for Hiptage benghalensis, Miconia calvescens, Miconia nervosa, Miconia racemose, Stevia ovata and Turbina corymbosa can be obtained by contacting the author.

Other references:

Kriticos, D. J., B. L. Webber, A. Leriche, N. Ota, J. Bathols, I. Macadam, and J. K. Scott. 2012. CliMond: global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3:53-64. doi: 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00134.x

Sutherst, R. W., G. F. Maywald, and D. J. Kriticos. 2007. CLIMEX Version 3: User's Guide. Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd, www.Hearne.com.au.

Sutherst, R. W., G. F. Maywald, T. Yonow, and P. M. Stevens. 1999. CLIMEX. Predicting the Effects of Climate on Plants and Animals. User Guide. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Australia.

Format:

14 shapefiles in polygon format using the spatial reference of GCS_WGS_1984.

For each of the invasive species investigated there are 2 shapefiles, one for its projected climate suitability as at 1975 and another for its projected climate suitability in 2070. The shapefiles are:
•   C_hirta_1975.
•   C_hirta_2070.
•   H_benghal_1975.
•   H_benghal_2070.
•   M_calvescens_1975.
•   M_calvescens_2070.
•   M_nervosa_1975.
•   M_nervosa_2070.
•   M_racemosa_1975.
•   M_racemosa_2070.
•   S_ovata_1975.
•   S_ovata_2070.
•   T_corymbosa_1975.
•   T_corymbosa_2070.

Data Dictionary:

Each shapefile has the same attributes.
- Longitude: 
- Latitude: 
- GI: unknown
- EI: range (0-100), Ecoclimatic Index, gives an overall measure of the potential of a given location to support a permanent population of the species.

Data Location:

This dataset is filed in the eAtlas enduring data repository at: data\NERP-TE\7.2_Invasive-species

Tags: Climate suitability, North Queensland
Organization: Australian Ocean Data Network