Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2018

Overview  
 The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. 

Overview 
• In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. 
• An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. 
• Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. 
Commodity production forecasts  
• The value of  farm production  is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). 
• The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. 

• The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. 
◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. 


Commodity export forecasts  
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. 
• The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. 

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). 

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. 

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts  

 Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. 

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. 
◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. 
◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. 

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. 

 Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth. 

Tags: AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURE Crops, AGRICULTURE Livestock, AGRICULTURE statistics, Australia, China grains, FISHERIES, FISHERIES production, FISHERIES statistics, Farming, INDUSTRY, INDUSTRY Primary, INDUSTRY Primary statistics, March, Peru FTA, agriculture, barley, beef, canola, chicken, chickpeas, climatic conditions, commodities, cotton, crop planting, crops, dairy, exchange rate, exports, fish, fisheries, forest products, goat meat, grains, horticulture, imports, livestock, livestock production, lupins, macroeconomic, oilseeds, pigmeat, pork, poultry, production, rice, sheep, sheepmeat, sorghum, value, veal, wheat, wine, wool
Organization: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences