HUN GW Uncertainty Analysis  v01

## **Abstract** 

The dataset was derived by the Bioregional Assessment Programme from multiple source datasets. The source datasets are identified in the Lineage field in this metadata statement. The processes undertaken to produce this derived dataset are described in the History field in this metadata statement.



This dataset contains all the scripts used to carry out the uncertainty analysis for the maximum drawdown and time to maximum drawdown at the groundwater receptors in the Hunter bioregion and all the resulting posterior predictions. This is described in product 2.6.2 Groundwater numerical modelling (Herron et al. 2016). See History for a detailed explanation of the dataset contents.



References:

Herron N, Crosbie R, Peeters L, Marvanek S, Ramage A and Wilkins A (2016) Groundwater numerical modelling for the Hunter subregion. Product 2.6.2 for the Hunter subregion from the Northern Sydney Basin Bioregional Assessment. Department of the Environment, Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia, Australia.

## **Dataset History** 

This dataset uses the results of the design of experiment runs of the groundwater model of the Hunter subregion to train emulators to (a) constrain the prior parameter ensembles into the posterior parameter ensembles and to (b) generate the predictive posterior ensembles of maximum drawdown and time to maximum drawdown. This is described in product 2.6.2 Groundwater numerical modelling (Herron et al. 2016).



A flow chart of the way the various files and scripts interact is provided in HUN_GW_UA_Flowchart.png (editable version in HUN_GW_UA_Flowchart.gliffy).



R-script HUN_DoE_Parameters.R creates the set of parameters for the design of experiment in HUN_DoE_Parameters.csv. Each of these parameter combinations is evaluated with the groundwater model (dataset HUN GW Model v01). Associated with this spreadsheet is file HUN_GW_Parameters.csv. This file contains, for each parameter, if it is included in the sensitivity analysis, tied to another parameters, the initial value and range, the transformation, the type of prior distribution with its mean and covariance structure.



The results of the design of experiment model runs are summarised in files HUN_GW_dmax_DoE_Predictions.csv, HUN_GW_tmax_DoE_Predictions.csv, HUN_GW_DoE_Observations.csv, HUN_GW_DoE_mean_BL_BF_hist.csv which have the maximum additional drawdown, the time to maximum additional drawdown for each receptor and the simulated equivalents to observed groundwater levels and SW-GW fluxes respectively. These are generated with post-processing scripts in dataset HUN GW Model v01 from the output (as exemplified in dataset HUN GW Model simulate ua999 pawsey v01).



Spreadsheets HUN_GW_dmax_Predictions.csv and HUN_GW_tmax_Predictions.csv capture additional information on each prediction; the name of the prediction, transformation, min, max and median of design of experiment, a boolean to indicate the prediction is to be included in the uncertainty analysis, the layer it is assigned to and which objective function to use to constrain the prediction.

Spreadsheet HUN_GW_Observations.csv has additional information on each observation; the name of the observation, a boolean to indicate to use the observation, the min and max of the design of experiment, a metadata statement describing the observation, the spatial coordinates, the observed value and the number of observations at this location (from dataset HUN bores v01). Further it has the distance of each bore to the nearest blue line network and the distance to each prediction (both in km). Spreadsheet HUN_GW_mean_BL_BF_hist.csv has similar information, but on the SW-GW flux. The observed values are from dataset HUN Groundwater Flowrate Time Series v01



These files are used in script HUN_GW_SI.py to generate sensitivity indices (based on the Plischke et al. (2013) method) for each group of observations and predictions. These indices are saved in spreadsheets HUN_GW_dmax_SI.csv, HUN_GW_tmax_SI.csv, HUN_GW_hobs_SI.py, HUN_GW_mean_BF_hist_SI.csv



Script HUN_GW_dmax_ObjFun.py calculates the objective function values for the design of experiment runs. Each prediction has a tailored objective function which is a weighted sum of the residuals between observations and predictions with weights based on the distance between observation and prediction. In addition to that there is an objective function for the baseflow rates. The results are stored in HUN_GW_DoE_ObjFun.csv and HUN_GW_ObjFun.csv. 



The latter files are used in scripts HUN_GW_dmax_CreatePosteriorParameters.R to carry out the Monte Carlo sampling of the prior parameter distributions with the Approximate Bayesian Computation methodology as described in Herron et al (2016) by generating and applying emulators for each objective function. The scripts use the scripts in dataset R-scripts for uncertainty analysis v01. These files are run on the high performance computation cluster machines with batch file HUN_GW_dmax_CreatePosterior.slurm. These scripts result in posterior parameter combinations for each objective function, stored in directory PosteriorParameters, with filename convention HUN_GW_dmax_Posterior_Parameters_OO_$OFName$.csv where $OFName$ is the name of the objective function. Python script HUN_GW_PosteriorParameters_Percentiles.py summarizes these posterior parameter combinations and stores the results in HUN_GW_PosteriorParameters_Percentiles.csv.



The same set of spreadsheets is used to test convergence of the emulator performance with script HUN_GW_emulator_convergence.R and batch file HUN_GW_emulator_convergence.slurm to produce spreadsheet HUN_GW_convergence_objfun_BF.csv.



The posterior parameter distributions are sampled with scripts HUN_GW_dmax_tmax_MCsampler.R and associated .slurm batch file. The script create and apply an emulator for each prediction. The emulator and results are stored in directory Emulators. This directory is not part of the this dataset but can be regenerated by running the scripts on the high performance computation clusters. A single emulator and associated output is included for illustrative purposes.



Script HUN_GW_collate_predictions.csv collates all posterior predictive distributions in spreadsheets HUN_GW_dmax_PosteriorPredictions.csv and HUN_GW_tmax_PosteriorPredictions.csv. These files are further summarised in spreadsheet HUN_GW_dmax_tmax_excprob.csv with script HUN_GW_exc_prob. This spreadsheet contains for all predictions the coordinates, layer, number of samples in the posterior parameter distribution and the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile of dmax and tmax, the probability of exceeding 1 cm and 20 cm drawdown, the maximum dmax value from the design of experiment and the threshold of the objective function and the acceptance rate.



The script HUN_GW_dmax_tmax_MCsampler.R is also used to evaluate parameter distributions HUN_GW_dmax_Posterior_Parameters_HUN_OF_probe439.csv and HUN_GW_dmax_Posterior_Parameters_Mackie_OF_probe439.csv. These are, for one predictions, different parameter distributions, in which the latter represents local information. The corresponding dmax values are stored in HUN_GW_dmax_probe439_HUN.csv and HUN_GW_dmax_probe439_Mackie.csv

## **Dataset Citation** 

Bioregional Assessment Programme (XXXX) HUN GW Uncertainty Analysis  v01. Bioregional Assessment Derived Dataset. Viewed 13 March 2019, http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/dataset/c25db039-5082-4dd6-bb9d-de7c37f6949a.

## **Dataset Ancestors** 

* **Derived From** [HUN GW Model code v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e54a1246-0076-4799-9ecf-6d673cf5b1da)

* **Derived From** [Hydstra Groundwater Measurement Update - NSW Office of Water, Nov2013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/08b34518-c947-4665-82e5-c144b5b24e01)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Economic Elements Hunter NSW 20150520 PersRem v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7174b44f-7146-4b70-a77f-b55c989a3278)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water - National Groundwater Information System  20140701](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7ab9820e-1e43-4600-8875-a0834345fb6d)

* **Derived From** [Travelling Stock Route Conservation Values](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/198900d5-0d06-4bd0-832b-e30a7c4e8873)

* **Derived From** [HUN GW Model v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/90554dbf-4992-49ec-98b1-53c6067e97a2)

* **Derived From** [NSW Wetlands](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/90476e12-77a2-4970-a0be-942eeb84e95e)

* **Derived From** [Climate Change Corridors Coastal North East NSW](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0a1b4dc6-07a4-4f2b-acc2-000eed75db22)

* **Derived From** [Communities of National Environmental Significance Database - RESTRICTED - Metadata only](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/c01c4693-0a51-4dbc-bbbd-7a07952aa5f6)

* **Derived From** [Climate Change Corridors for Nandewar and New England Tablelands](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d480bd52-c46a-41ae-bab8-0e8d7620160b)

* **Derived From** [National Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDE) Atlas](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e358e0c8-7b83-4179-b321-3b4b70df857d)

* **Derived From** [Fauna Corridors for North East NSW](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/c8b21575-8003-41ba-bb7e-378c2eb3486d)

* **Derived From** [R-scripts for uncertainty analysis v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/322c38ef-272f-4e77-964c-a14259abe9cf)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 27 August 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9e1c414c-1752-4bd8-83ff-c137b7d9f9ce)

* **Derived From** [Hunter CMA GDEs (DRAFT DPI pre-release)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/469d6d2e-900f-47a7-a137-946b89b3d188)

* **Derived From** [Estuarine Macrophytes of Hunter Subregion NSW DPI Hunter 2004](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fb7bf5a0-f0e3-429b-9b54-0d4b58fb49c2)

* **Derived From** [Birds Australia - Important Bird Areas (IBA) 2009](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/5d488350-83b6-4e71-8d17-687ad8ff9941)

* **Derived From** [Camerons Gorge Grassy White Box Endangered Ecological Community (EEC) 2008](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/cc77d836-86d3-429d-b0ab-1599cff00414)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 16 June 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/24f007de-94e1-4a50-b8e8-46d5cceb5c66)

* **Derived From** [Spatial Threatened Species and Communities (TESC) NSW 20131129](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a6664894-1489-46d1-a6ca-16f9ab519a28)

* **Derived From** [Gippsland Project boundary](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/27413de5-d13a-4231-ac79-fc77f4cbb5f7)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v04](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e8a2d577-c5c5-4e2c-b0fa-53e4b2d4a034)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 24 February 2016](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a39290ac-3925-4abc-9ecb-b91e911f008f)

* **Derived From** [Natural Resource Management (NRM) Regions 2010](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1d54e38f-4051-4f0c-a350-c7dbd8eba65b)

* **Derived From** [Gosford Council Endangered Ecological Communities (Umina woodlands) EEC3906](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/485b84ef-7f56-40b3-bf25-5ba359dd4623)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Surface Water Offtakes - Hunter v1 24102013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d94064ab-6d03-4a40-9484-1579afa9269b)

* **Derived From** [National Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDE) Atlas (including WA)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6dbaee0d-8813-46b1-9c13-1b796e7ed3bf)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v03](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96dbf469-5463-4f4d-8fad-4214c97e5aac)

* **Derived From** [HUN groundwater flow rate time series v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/57b928ac-9d9d-407a-87d8-8405f4a4b11a)

* **Derived From** [Asset list for Hunter - CURRENT](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/51b1e021-2958-4cd3-8daa-ba46ece09d1c)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Surface Water Entitlements Locations v1_Oct2013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fc872710-998e-4c76-8b98-1df383c53de6)

* **Derived From** [Species Profile and Threats Database (SPRAT) - Australia - Species of National Environmental Significance Database (BA subset - RESTRICTED - Metadata only)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7276dd93-cc8c-4c01-8df0-cef743c72112)

* **Derived From** [HUN GW Model simulate ua999 pawsey v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7b0a70e9-4ce9-4af9-a658-03451f0f5a9e)

* **Derived From** [Northern Rivers CMA GDEs (DRAFT DPI pre-release)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ac1bd285-5f50-46e2-bc04-b21e8e182a62)

* **Derived From** [GEODATA TOPO 250K Series 3, File Geodatabase format (.gdb)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96ebf889-f726-4967-9964-714fb57d679b)

* **Derived From** [Ramsar Wetlands of Australia](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d65cc156-944d-4961-bfba-eacfd61db63a)

* **Derived From** [Native Vegetation Management (NVM) - Manage Benefits](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/b299e256-1d37-4f89-8c51-93567ebf3753)

* **Derived From** [GEODATA TOPO 250K Series 3](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a0650f18-518a-4b99-a553-44f82f28bb5f)

* **Derived From** [NSW Catchment Management Authority Boundaries   20130917](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0dc4272e-c081-4ed4-9645-aa336ffacd85)

* **Derived From** [Geological Provinces - Full Extent](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0a064b3b-2a1e-4672-80d9-03333be67aad)

* **Derived From** [HUN bores v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/97931fff-5ee9-4efb-b59c-ead03345abbe)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Surface Water Licences Processed for Hunter v1 20140516](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/25d233eb-dbc4-4ca3-b200-1d1df2b5126c)

* **Derived From** [GW Element Bores with Unknown FTYPE Hunter NSW Office of Water 20150514](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e8b6a2f3-2951-4cdd-9570-871441120e02)

* **Derived From** [Atlas of Living Australia NSW ALA Portal 20140613](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/cb420b33-b828-40fe-a844-7fdbe828d4d6)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e414b1b3-c42e-42e9-9cc4-2093054aa35f)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v05](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/25f89049-839d-4736-bd81-97d8e8a40f8e)

* **Derived From** [HUN GW Model Mines raw data v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/709cd6d1-8579-4aea-887d-b06d32a71961)

* **Derived From** [National Heritage List Spatial Database (NHL) (v2.1)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/26daa8d7-a90e-47f3-982b-0df362414e65)

* **Derived From** [Climate Change Corridors (Dry Habitat) for North East NSW](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/8871574a-62ac-4b59-9cc3-bc991a6abd57)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Entitlement Hunter NSW Office of Water 20150324](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/19697f0a-4513-42a4-a7ce-4e00f48a715a)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 20 July 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/35bc515e-581a-4a7f-ae2a-c0b62b2c9169)

* **Derived From** [Darling River Hardyhead Predicted Distribution in Hunter River Catchment NSW 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/643c6228-6435-4f5a-9f09-5f53efe234d2)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 22 September 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/59d91125-2b58-4680-9ef0-645d77a9f76d)

* **Derived From** [Commonwealth Heritage List Spatial Database (CHL)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/57720684-4948-45db-a2c8-37259d531d87)

* **Derived From** [Australia World Heritage Areas](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4927789b-7ba7-4a77-b6fc-be1b29b6590c)

* **Derived From** [Lower Hunter Spotted Gum Forest EEC 2010](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/5a8f525b-d602-4120-99a3-900fc05180e7)

* **Derived From** [New South Wales NSW Regional CMA Water Asset Information WAIT tool databases, RESTRICTED Includes ALL Reports](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a2a929ea-2cb3-42ab-86b9-87deac68acae)

* **Derived From** [Threatened migratory shorebird habitat mapping DECCW May 2006](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/cc0b62a0-ded7-4c14-b954-1552337b395e)

* **Derived From** [Surface Geology of Australia, 1:1 000 000 scale, 2012 edition](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/8284767e-b5b1-4d8b-b8e6-b334fa972611)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v06](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/54d7cc96-5129-450a-aef4-73197f9bc09d)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water - GW licence extract linked to spatial locations for North and South Sydney v2 20140228](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0e6034bc-7a91-46c9-80e0-0e3330a0b7da)

* **Derived From** [HUN AssetList Database v1p2 20150128](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/64ecd565-bb7c-4f21-951e-f35966b91c99)

* **Derived From** [New South Wales NSW - Regional - CMA - Water Asset Information Tool - WAIT - databases](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/330532aa-66ba-44f5-984b-8a21a99661a0)

* **Derived From** [Climate Change Corridors (Moist Habitat) for North East NSW](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f8445d2e-ec1f-4f5a-99cc-7f90d1f96103)

* **Derived From** [Operating Mines OZMIN Geoscience Australia 20150201](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/65c0c042-1ba8-47a8-9793-4363672500b9)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water - National Groundwater Information System 20141101v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6c364d09-fc3b-47c3-aa98-6c702d3d8137)

* **Derived From** [Victoria - Seamless Geology 2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/2872d02e-66cb-42b6-9e5a-63abc8ad871b)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Economic Assets Hunter NSW 20150331 PersRem](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ca620380-3d67-43bb-811a-3cafdf41056a)

* **Derived From** [Australia - Species of National Environmental Significance Database](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4eff885b-0d68-45e8-b4b1-e3e5448354eb)

* **Derived From** [Monitoring Power Generation and Water Supply Bores Hunter NOW 20150514](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/055adb26-5b43-451c-ad21-c9063f1d5aed)

* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0fd0d820-30b3-451f-a126-a50040426999)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water GW licence extract linked to spatial locations for NorthandSouthSydney v3 13032014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6860cabb-372d-40c8-9ae8-f097021d35ef)

* **Derived From** [Australia, Register of the National Estate (RNE) - Spatial Database (RNESDB) Internal](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/878f6780-be97-469b-8517-54bd12a407d0)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Hunter subregion on 12 February 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/dcf8349e-aaed-4d30-80ab-1c8cbad8fe68)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Groundwater Entitlements Spatial Locations](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0f4da0d0-9e82-42f3-84da-1148e0b730c1)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Groundwater Licence Extract, North and South Sydney - Oct 2013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/b48f941e-b557-411f-aebd-e3c463b60614)

* **Derived From** [HUN Alluvium (1:1m Geology)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/c2706e2f-8800-440d-ad60-d0f2790b32e3)

* **Derived From** [Directory of Important Wetlands in Australia (DIWA) Spatial Database (Public)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6636846e-e330-4110-afbb-7b89491fe567)

* **Derived From** [Collaborative Australian Protected Areas Database (CAPAD) 2010 (Not current release)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7b649c6d-fdbf-40e3-b002-db521665af53)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water combined geodatabase of regulated rivers and water sharing plan regions](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/24157c41-c42f-4e1f-a791-a1ad18c8215d)



Tags: Hunter subregion, environment
Organization: Bioregional Assessment Program