GLO MFdmax v01

## **Abstract** 

The dataset was derived by the Bioregional Assessment Programme from multiple source datasets. The source datasets are identified in the Lineage field in this metadata statement. The processes undertaken to produce this derived dataset are described in the History field in this metadata statement.



This dataset uses the results of the design of experiment runs of the alluvial MODFLOW groundwater models for the Avon and Karuah alluvial systems of the Gloucester to train emulators to (a) constrain the prior parameter ensembles into the posterior parameter ensembles and to (b) generate the predictive posterior ensembles of maximum drawdown and time to maximum drawdown. This is described in product 2.6.2 Groundwater numerical modelling (Peeters et al. 2016).



Peeters L, Dawes W, Rachakonda P, Pagendam D, Singh R, Pickett T, Frery E, Marvanek S, and McVicar T (2016) Groundwater numerical modelling for the Gloucester subregion. Product 2.6.2 for the Gloucester subregion from the Northern Sydney Basin Bioregional Assessment. Department of the Environment, Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia, Australia. http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/product/NSB/GLO/2.6.2.

## **Dataset History** 

This dataset contains all the scripts to carry out the uncertainty analysis for the maximum drawdown and time to maximum drawdown at the groundwater receptors associated with the Avon and Karuah alluvia and all the resulting posterior predictions. This is described in product 2.6.2 Groundwater numerical modelling (Peeters et al. 2016).



The file 'GLO_MF_dmax_UA_workflow.pptx' shows a diagram of the workflow of the uncertainty analysis for the Avon model. The workflow for the Karuah uncertainty analysis is identical. Avon specific files have '_g_' in the filename. Karuah specific files have '_k_' in the filename.



The post-processed results from the numerical modelling (dataset GLO MF Model v02) are summarised in files 'GLO_MF_karuah_budget_m3d.csv', 'GLO_MF_gloc_budget_m3d.csv', 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_DoE_Predictions.csv' and ''GLO_MF_dmax_g_DoE_Predictions.csv' . 



Python script 'GLO_MF_dmax_Predictions.py' creates input files for the uncertainty analysis:

- 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_Predictions.csv': summary of the maximum drawdown (dmax) predictions at the receptors - Name, Transform, Emulate, Min, Max, Median

- 'GLO_MF_tmax_g_Predictions.csv': summary of the time to maximum drawdown (tmax)  predictions at the receptors - Name, Transform, Emulate, Min, Max, Median

- 'GLO_MF_sumstat.csv': summary of the summary statistics to constrain the models - Name, Transform, Emulate, Min, Max, Median

- 'GLO_AEM_dmax_DoE_Predictions.csv': simulated maximum drawdown values at receptor locations corresponding to the parameter combinations in 'GLO_DoE_Parameters.csv'

- 'GLO_AEM_tmax_DoE_Predictions.csv': simulated time to maximum drawdown values at receptor locations corresponding to the parameter combinations in 'GLO_DoE_Parameters.csv'

- 'GLO_sumstat_DoE.csv': summary statistics to constrain the models corresponding to the parameter combinations in 'GLO_DoE_Parameters.csv'



File 'GLO_DoE_Parameters.csv' contains the 10.000 parameter combinations used in the design of experiment, generated with the maximin latin hypercube sampling.



File 'GLO_MF_dmax_Parameters.csv' contains information on the parameters of the Avon and Karuah MODFLOW model that are varied in the uncertainty analysis. This is the name, transform, minimum, maximum, description, the type of prior distribution, the first and second moments of the prior distribution and the covariance. These values are specified by the modelling team and described in section 2.6.2.6 in Peeters et al. (2016).



The script 'GLO_MF_SensitivityAnalysis.py' calculates the Plischke et al (2013) sensitivity index for all HRV-receptor-parameter combination, which are stored in files 'GLO_MF_dmax_SI.csv', 'GLO_MF_tmax_SI.csv' and 'GLO_MF_sumstat_SI.csv'.



For each prediction of tmax and dmax an emulator is created with R-scripts 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_Emulate_pred_i.R' and 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_Emulate_pred_i.R'. The script uses the R-scripts in dataset 'R-scripts for uncertainty analysis v01' and stores an R data object with extension .Rdata in subdirectory 'emulators/predictionname'.



The R script 'GLO_MF_dmax_CreatePosteriorParameters.R' performs the Approximate Bayesian Computation Markov Chain Monte Carlo to constrain the prior parameter distributions with an acceptance criterion based on the historical water balance of the alluvial system. This model result is summarised in file 'GLO_sumstat.csv' and all results of the design of experiment are stored in 'GLO_sumstat_DoE.csv'. The script results in an emulator object (file '\emulator\glo_sumstat\glo_sumstat.RData') and a spreadsheet with 10.000 posterior parameter combinations (file 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_Posterior_Parameters.csv'). The first 200 of these parameter combinations are used to generate the output for interpolation of exceedance probabilities in dataset GLO MF Model v02.



The R scripts 'GLO_MF_tmax_g_MCsampler_pred_i.R' and 'GLO_MF_dmax_g_MCsampler_pred_i.R' use the emulators for each prediction to sample the posterior parameters to create the posterior predictive ensembles, which are stored for each prediction separately in '\emulators\predname_prediction.csv'



Post-processing scripts 'GLO_MF_dmax_Postprocess_Predictions.py' and 'GLO_MF_tmax_Postprocess_Predictions.py' combine these individual files into two posterior prediction files: 'GLO_MF_dmax_Posterior_Predictions.csv' and 'GLO_MF_tmax_Posterior_Predictions.csv'. These have the combined predictions at the receptor locations of both the Karuah and Avon alluvial MODFLOW models.



These files are further summarised in exceedance probabilities with script 'GLO_MF_probabilities.py', which outputs files 'GLO_MF_dmax_ExceedanceProbabilities.csv' and 'GLO_MF_tmax_ExceedanceProbabilities.csv'



References



Peeters L, Dawes W, Rachakonda P, Pagendam D, Singh R, Pickett T, Frery E, Marvanek S, and McVicar T (2016) Groundwater numerical modelling for the Gloucester subregion. Product 2.6.2 for the Gloucester subregion from the Northern Sydney Basin Bioregional Assessment. Department of the Environment, Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia, Australia. http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/product/NSB/GLO/2.6.2.



Plischke E, Borgonovo E, and Smith CL (2013) Global sensitivity measures from given data European Journal of Operational Research 226, 536-550

## **Dataset Citation** 

Bioregional Assessment Programme (XXXX) GLO MFdmax v01. Bioregional Assessment Derived Dataset. Viewed 18 July 2018, http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/dataset/df0ff3b6-b131-4cf7-9d86-33d1de01634d.

## **Dataset Ancestors** 

* **Derived From** [Standard Instrument Local Environmental Plan (LEP) - Heritage (HER) (NSW)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fd1ff106-2f48-4bda-bfd1-a7206747c483)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water GW licence extract linked to spatial locations - GLO v5 UID elements 27032014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0115c2ba-73c6-4c98-b539-9f67594980cf)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Economic Assets GLO 20150326](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/2e314212-0677-40b8-86ff-c5166c6906bd)

* **Derived From** [Gloucester digitised coal mine boundaries](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/be85b60f-49dd-485c-bb85-11d45de9792d)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems supplied by the NSW Office of Water on 13/05/2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1bdc6089-c114-4485-b962-35a8b3d2357f)

* **Derived From** [Geology 100K NSW selected mapsheets for Sydney Bioregion](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/19a28cab-2acb-4c9d-b265-1535158508f2)

* **Derived From** [GLO Geological Model Extracted Horizons Final Grid XYZ V01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/18402b28-677e-45af-9860-067c258eea33)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water GW licence extract linked to spatial locations GLOv4 UID 14032014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/98341388-5705-4c42-9f7a-186e16647614)

* **Derived From** [Communities of National Environmental Significance Database - RESTRICTED - Metadata only](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/c01c4693-0a51-4dbc-bbbd-7a07952aa5f6)

* **Derived From** [National Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDE) Atlas](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e358e0c8-7b83-4179-b321-3b4b70df857d)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Gloucester subregion on 12 September 2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d0c21c5c-1b30-4aae-933a-71145b935cc6)

* **Derived From** [GEODATA 9 second DEM and D8: Digital Elevation Model Version 3 and Flow Direction Grid 2008](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ebcf6ca2-513a-4ec7-9323-73508c5d7b93)

* **Derived From** [BA SYD GLO -  AGL Avon Wards River alluvium extent v1](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4484f125-8401-4324-a8a4-42fd1828e485)

* **Derived From** [National Groundwater Information System (NGIS) v1.1](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e157b1cd-3cb7-4cf9-a13c-a6bed576b8c7)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Entitlement Data GLO NSW Office of Water 20150320 PersRemoved](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/5afdddd5-f5b5-42d1-8ca6-8db19ecf1fd3)

* **Derived From** [R-scripts for uncertainty analysis v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/322c38ef-272f-4e77-964c-a14259abe9cf)

* **Derived From** [New South Wales 2 kilometers Residential Exclusions Zone](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/8e9b4d01-bba2-4741-9ffd-aed0484eb14a)

* **Derived From** [Geofabric Surface Cartography - V2.1](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/5342c4ba-f094-4ac5-a65d-071ff5c642bc)

* **Derived From** [BA SYD selected GA TOPO 250K data plus added map features](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ba5feac2-b35a-4611-82da-5b6213777069)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Entitlement Data Gloucester - NSW Office of Water 20150320](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/bf435e81-60d4-40c7-ac00-76585fc1fe77)

* **Derived From** [Collaborative Australian Protected Areas Database (CAPAD) 2010 - External Restricted](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/47312aee-722e-4c6e-bef8-9e439480503e)

* **Derived From** [National Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDE) Atlas (including WA)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6dbaee0d-8813-46b1-9c13-1b796e7ed3bf)

* **Derived From** [EIS Gloucester Coal 2010](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/04c22c59-2f7c-4ba6-a192-7bfb89f6b98d)

* **Derived From** [Species Profile and Threats Database (SPRAT) - Australia - Species of National Environmental Significance Database (BA subset - RESTRICTED - Metadata only)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7276dd93-cc8c-4c01-8df0-cef743c72112)

* **Derived From** [Geological Maps Combined for NSW](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f507bb28-8095-43f8-901e-565699a290b5)

* **Derived From** [GEODATA TOPO 250K Series 3](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a0650f18-518a-4b99-a553-44f82f28bb5f)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Gloucester subregion on 28 May 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/5815842e-d271-4f73-9d1a-d15c90571330)

* **Derived From** [Gloucester Deep Wells Completion Reports - Geology](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0529ae9a-4d40-460d-b52a-fb0e5f646746)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water GW licence extract linked to spatial locations GLOv3 12032014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/587c6834-09aa-4cd8-8972-5632880f5ae5)

* **Derived From** [EIS for Rocky Hill Coal Project 2013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ebc1abb5-8b0e-43fa-95e3-2c49dd3343d7)

* **Derived From** [GLO AEM dmax v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/c54640db-ca88-4ed2-8e58-6b1a198293c5)

* **Derived From** [National Heritage List Spatial Database (NHL) (v2.1)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/26daa8d7-a90e-47f3-982b-0df362414e65)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Gloucester subregion on 8 April 2015](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d559e708-089a-46bc-bad2-dc5068993574)

* **Derived From** [Gloucester - Additional assets from local councils](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/47e9540a-dd75-4e04-bddb-574de1b89ecb)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water combined geodatabase of regulated rivers and water sharing plan regions](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/24157c41-c42f-4e1f-a791-a1ad18c8215d)

* **Derived From** [GLO RMS Model Depth Structure Eroded v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d2d676b1-26e5-4b5f-bcf3-60ae7fe41cec)

* **Derived From** [Asset database for the Gloucester subregion on 29 August 2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7000a82c-85f2-461a-ba35-9d7d1ba6d339)

* **Derived From** [New South Wales NSW Regional CMA Water Asset Information WAIT tool databases, RESTRICTED Includes ALL Reports](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a2a929ea-2cb3-42ab-86b9-87deac68acae)

* **Derived From** [Groundwater Modelling Report for Stratford Coal Mine](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4a9d9e6c-8d12-4d9c-837f-5c63fa03472a)

* **Derived From** [AGL Gloucester Gas Project AECOM report location map features](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7fca4f35-6e4e-4d37-bbae-1c1029a93a40)

* **Derived From** [Directory of Important Wetlands in Australia (DIWA) Spatial Database (Public)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6636846e-e330-4110-afbb-7b89491fe567)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Groundwater Licence Extract Gloucester - Oct 2013](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/56a49393-abaa-43f2-8b7d-97c5d414c1cf)

* **Derived From** [New South Wales NSW - Regional - CMA - Water Asset Information Tool - WAIT - databases](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/330532aa-66ba-44f5-984b-8a21a99661a0)

* **Derived From** [GLO Deep Well Locations and Depths of Formations V01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e549473c-5b78-4279-8eeb-af86ca6522b3)

* **Derived From** [GLO MF Model v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9d732408-003e-4901-86a7-cea95b585640)

* **Derived From** [Freshwater Fish Biodiversity Hotspots](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6093bd55-a978-4fcc-a8fa-6881fa015329)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Groundwater licence extract linked to spatial locations GLOv2 19022014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/38c9e2c9-02ac-45a8-a188-936f91a58391)

* **Derived From** [GLO AEM Model v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e76e05a1-3d3c-4014-a163-66a342278ea2)

* **Derived From** [Australia - Species of National Environmental Significance Database](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4eff885b-0d68-45e8-b4b1-e3e5448354eb)

* **Derived From** [GLO DEM 1sec SRTM MGA56](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ca38ed31-e15d-4bb5-a7ef-0aeba3dad3f4)

* **Derived From** [Australia, Register of the National Estate (RNE) - Spatial Database (RNESDB) Internal](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/878f6780-be97-469b-8517-54bd12a407d0)

* **Derived From** [Avon Wards River alluvium v03](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/72858ae2-da7f-4a97-8481-62aab1e3c184)

* **Derived From** [NSW Office of Water Groundwater Entitlements Spatial Locations](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0f4da0d0-9e82-42f3-84da-1148e0b730c1)

* **Derived From** [GLO Receptors 20150828](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/acdd94a6-5201-4026-8177-035f25077587)

* **Derived From** [Report for Director Generals Requirement Rocky Hill Project 2012](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d8837d3d-91bb-4496-814e-e707cf65fbb2)

* **Derived From** [Geoscience Australia, 1 second SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9a9284b6-eb45-4a13-97d0-91bf25f1187b)

* **Derived From** [Collaborative Australian Protected Areas Database (CAPAD) 2010 (Not current release)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7b649c6d-fdbf-40e3-b002-db521665af53)



Tags: Gloucester subregion, New South Wales, environment, inlandWaters
Organization: Bioregional Assessment Program