Modelled Hillslope Erosion over New South Wales - NARCliM2.0

This landing page is a collection of data packages and reports which supports the Modelled Hillslope Erosion over New South Wales under NARCliM2.0 Climate scenarios
What is hillslope erosion and rainfall erosivity?
Influenced by both natural forces and human activities, soil erosion has become a global environmental problem. Hillslope erosion, including sheet and rill erosion, is a major form of water erosion which causes land degradation in New South Wales (NSW) landscapes. It is a climate risk, and negatively impacts soil quality, agricultural productivity, water quality and biodiversity. In areas where the rate of soil loss is greater than that of soil formation, it is critical to develop efficient erosion control practices to sustain soil condition and capability (Yang, 2020). Rainfall is one of the dominant natural forces which impact all soil erosion processes such as soil detachment, transport and deposition. Rainfall erosivity is a measure of the ability of rainfall to cause erosion and is largely a function of both the amount and the intensity of rainfall. Climate change can intensify soil erosion through increased rainfall events, especially in areas with poor land management, leading to fertile topsoil loss and reduced agricultural productivity.
How we model hillslope erosion and rainfall erosivity?
Hillslope erosion was calculated using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) which estimates soil loss (t ha-1 yr-1) by runoff. Rainfall-runoff erosivity (R) factor (MJ mm ha-1 hr-1 yr-1) in RUSLE was estimated using a daily rainfall erosivity modelling for NSW and long-term rainfall records (Yang and Yu 2015). The soil erodibility (K) factor (t ha h ha-1 MJ-1 mm-1) was estimated from digital soil mapping products and soil profile data (Yang et al 2017). Slope length and steepness (LS, unitless) factor was calculated on catchment basis, from hydrologically corrected digital elevation model (SRTM DEM-H) based on comprehensive algorithms considering cumulative overland flow length (Yang 2015). The time series groundcover products (the latest version, V310) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to estimate groundcover and RUSLE cover and management (C, unitless) factor (Yang 2014). Time-series hillslope erosion datasets and maps were produced on monthly and annual bases from 2001 to present. The state and trends of hillslope erosion across New South Wales are summarised in Yang (2020). 
Erosion and erosivity prediction using NARCliM2.0
We have successfully delivered the erosion and erosivity prediction under climate change from NARCliM1.0 (Zhu et al., 2020) and NARCliM 1.5 (Zhu et al., 2025) since 2014. NARCliM 2.0 provides detailed erosion and erosivity predictions for New South Wales, incorporating climate change scenarios. The dataset, available at 100m resolution, covers the period from 1990-2009 (baseline) to 2100. We used daily precipitation data from all NARCliM2.0 model ensembles and future emission scenarios to model soil erosion and capture extreme rainfall events.
The current release includes two GHG scenarios - SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, with a third scenario, SSP2-4.5, available in late-2025.  
This dataset is designed to support strategic planning for soil and land use in New South Wales. It enables early-stage risk assessments, helps prioritise adaptation needs, and allows for comparative analysis of exposure across the state due to its consistent structure.
The relevant references are below:


Yang, X., Gray, J., Chapman, C., Zhu, Q., Tulau M., McInnes-Clarke, S. (2017). Digital mapping of soil erodibility for water erosion in New South Wales, Australia. Soil Research. 56(2), 158-170. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR17058.


Yang X (2015) Digital mapping of RUSLE slope length and steepness factor across New South Wales. Soil Research 53, 216-225. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR14208.


Yang X, Yu B (2015) Modelling and mapping rainfall erosivity in New South Wales, Australia. Soil Research. 53, 178-189. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR14188.


Yang X (2014) Deriving RUSLE cover factor from time-series fractional vegetation cover for soil erosion risk monitoring in New South Wales. Soil Research 52, 253-261. https://doi.org/10.1071/SR13297.


Yang X (2020) State and trends of hillslope erosion across New South Wales, Australia. Catena 186, 104361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.104361.


Zhu, Q., Yang, X., Ji, F., Du, Z. 2025. Rainfall Erosivity Projection in South-East Australia Using the Improved Regional Climate Simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 45(2), e8702. 
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8702 


Zhu, Q., Yang, X., Ji, F., Liu, D. L., Q. Yu. 2020. Extreme Rainfall, Rainfall Erosivity, and Hillslope Erosion in Australian Alpine Region and Their Future Changes. International Journal of Climatology. 40(2): 1213–1227. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6266. 


Interactive Map
To view the Hillslope bare soil and cover erosion annual layers via SEED map 'Click Here'
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Tags: Climate projections, Hillslope erosion, NARCliM
Organization: NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water