SEDAC U.S. Population Projections for 2020 – 2100

This layer shares SEDAC's population projections for U.S. counties for 2020-2100 in increments of 5 years, for each of five population projection scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). This layer supports mapping, data visualizations, analysis and data exports. Before using this layer, read: [The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview] by Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni. Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, 2017, Pages 153-168, ISSN 0959-3780, [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009]. From the 2017 paper: "The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature." According to SEDAC, the purpose of this data is: "To provide subnational (county) population projection scenarios for the United States essential for understanding long-term demographic changes, planning for the future, and decision-making in a variety of applications." According to [Francesco Bassetti of Foresight], "The SSP’s baseline worlds are useful because they allow us to see how different socioeconomic factors impact climate change. They include: * a world of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1); * a “middle of the road” world where trends broadly follow their historical patterns (SSP2); * a fragmented world of “resurgent nationalism” (SSP3); * a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4); * a world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5). There are seven sublayers, each with county boundaries and an identical set of attribute fields containing projections for these seven groupings across the five SSPs and nine decades. * Total Population * Black Non-Hispanic Population * White Non-Hispanic Population * Other Non-Hispanic Population * Hispanic Population * Male Population * Female Population Methodology: [Documentation for the Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, v1 (2020 – 2100)] Data currency: This layer was created from a shapefile downloaded April 18, 2023 from SEDAC's [Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, v1 (2020 – 2100)] Enhancements found in this layer: Every field was given a field alias and field description created from SEDAC's Data Dictionary downloaded April 18, 2023. Citation: Hauer, M., and Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2021. Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 2020-2100. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). [https://doi.org/10.7927/dv72-s254]. Accessed 18 April 2023. Hauer, M. E. 2019. Population Projections for U.S. Counties by Age, Sex, and Race Controlled to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. Scientific Data 6: 190005. [https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.5]. Distribution Liability: CIESIN follows procedures designed to ensure that data disseminated by CIESIN are of reasonable quality. If, despite these procedures, users encounter apparent errors or misstatements in the data, they should contact SEDAC User Services at +1 845-465-8920 or via email at ciesin.info@ciesin.columbia.edu. Neither CIESIN nor NASA verifies or guarantees the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any data provided. CIESIN provides this data without warranty of any kind whatsoever, either expressed or implied. CIESIN shall not be liable for incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of the use of any data provided by CIESIN.