STAR-Ensemble SSP5-8.5 Days with Heavy Precipitation

The [Climate Resilience Information System] (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: * Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 1 inch * Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 2 inches * Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 3 inches * Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 4 inches * Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 5 inches * Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile for non-zero precipitation days * Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for non-zero precipitation days * Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile for non-zero precipitation days This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in [Understanding CRIS Data]. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in [CRIS Data Preparation]. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s [Data Gallery page] or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. * County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line [2022 distribution]. * Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset [2022 distribution]. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. * HUC-8 watershed: based on the [USGS Washed Boundary Dataset], part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the [Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)]. Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.