Temperature Climate Projections from STAR Downscaling

The [Climate Resilience Information System] (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This image service provides access to downscaled climate projections for 27 threshold values of temperature for the contiguous United States for 2 SSP climate scenarios from 1950-2100. These services are intended to support analysis of climate exposure for custom geographies and time horizons. Sixteen downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were chosen to be included in a weighted ensemble, optimized for the contiguous United States. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in [Understanding CRIS Data]. Time Ranges Pixel values for each variable were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, a modeled history runs from 1950 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series. These annual increments support deriving a temporal average, such as a decadal or thirty-year period centered on a specific year. These time steps should not be used to make predictions about conditions for a specific year, especially at a pixel-level. Climate Scenarios Climate models use estimates of future greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to predict overall change. These different scenarios are called the [Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)]. Two different SSPs are presented here: 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The 2- or 5- represents the socioeconomic growth model. The 4.5 or 8.5 number indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP2-4.5 aligns closest with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement for no greater than 2^{o}C average global warming. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, depicting a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Variable Definitions See the variable list and definitions [here]. Additional Services Three versions of the gridded climate projections [are available] from CRIS: 1. LOCA2 Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 6-km resolution model. LOCA2 has SSP2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 2. STAR-ESDM Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 4-km resolution model. STAR-ESDM has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 3. NCA5 Blended Ensemble: a merging of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM ensembles at a 6-km resolution, as was done for the 5th National Climate Assessment (2023). NCA Blended Ensemble has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 Using the Imagery Layer The ArcGIS Tiled Imagery Service has a multidimensional structure -- a data cube with variable, SSP, and time dimensions. Methods for accessing the different dimensions will depend on the software/client being used. For more details, please see the [CRIS Developer’s Hub] along with this instructional [StoryMap]. To run analysis, first use the multidimensional tools Aggregate or Subset in ArcGIS Pro to copy the necessary data locally. Data Export Data export is enabled on the services if using an ArcGIS client. NetCDF or Zarr files are also available from the NOAA Open Data Distribution system on Amazon Web Services.