Spreadsheet of quantiles of change factors at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida derived from various downscaled climate datasets considering only the best models, and the RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 future emission scenarios (CFquantiles_future_to_historical_best_models_RCP4.5.xlsx).

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data from various downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach. The change factors correspond to the period 2050-2089 (centered in the year 2070) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period. 
      A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates quantiles of change factors derived from various downscaled climate datasets at grid cells closest to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida considering only the best models and the RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 future emission scenarios. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data using a constrained maximum likelihood approach (CML) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Localized Constructed Analogs) (LOCA) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) datasets, and a traditional maximum likelihood (ML) approach for the JupiterWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dataset. The quantiles of change factors are tabulated by duration (1, 3, and 7 days) and return period (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years) for percentiles (non-exceedance probabilities) of 5, 16, 50, 84, and 95 percent considering only the best models within each dataset and the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and shared socioeconomic pathway SSP2-4.5 future emission scenarios. RCP4.5 belongs to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and is available for the downscaled climate datasets CORDEX, LOCA, and MACA. SSP2-4.5 belongs to the Couple Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) and is available only for JupiterWRF. Only daily durations are evaluated for JupiterWRF. 
      Best models are listed in Best_models_list.xlsx and were identified based on how well the models capture the climatology and interannual variability of four climate extreme indices using the Model Climatology Index (MCI) and the Model Variability Index (MVI) of Srivastava and others (2020). The four indices consist of annual maxima consecutive precipitation for durations of 1, 3, 5, and 7 days compared against the same indices computed based on the PRISM and SFWMD gridded precipitation datasets for two climate regions: climate region 4 in South Central Florida, and climate region 5 in South Florida. The PRISM dataset is based on the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model interpolation method of Daly and others (2008). The South Florida Water Management District’s (SFWMD) precipitation super-grid is a gridded precipitation dataset developed by modelers at the agency for use in hydrologic modeling (SFWMD, 2005). This dataset is considered by the SFWMD as the best available gridded rainfall dataset for south Florida. Best models were selected based on MCI and MVI evaluated within each individual downscaled dataset. In addition, best models were selected by comparison across datasets and referred to as "ALL DATASETS" hereafter. Due to the small sample size, all models were considered the best models for the JupiterWRF dataset.

Tags: climatologymeteorologyatmosphere, depth-duration-frequency, extremes, florida, precipitation-atmospheric, precipitation-extremes, south-florida, south-florida-water-management-district, southern-florida, usgs-6157277ed34e0df5fb9f82db
Organization: Department of the Interior