Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4).

This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth.

This dataset provides future weather data under two emissions scenarios - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 - across two 10-year periods (2045-2054 and 2085-2094). It also includes simulated historical weather data for 1995-2004 to serve as the baseline for climate impact assessments. We strongly recommend using this built-in baseline rather than external sources (e.g., TMY3) for two key reasons: (1) it shares the same model grid as the future projections, thereby minimizing geographic-averaging bias, and (2) both historical and future datasets were generated by the same RCM, so their differences yield anomalies largely free of residual model bias.
 
This dataset offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale.

The authors observed an anomalous warming signal over the Great Plains in the end-of-century (2085 - 2094) RCP4.5 time slice. This anomaly is absent in the mid-century slice (2045 - 2054) under RCP4.5 and in both the mid- (2045 - 2054) and end-of-century (2085 - 2094) slices under RCP8.5. Consequently, we recommend that users exercise particular caution when using the RCP4.5 2085-2094 data, especially for analyses involving the Great Plains region.

Tags: building-energy-modeling, climate-change, data, dynamical-downscaling, energy, future-weather, hourly, model, modeling, north-america, processed-data, puma, rcp4-5, rcp8-5, weather, wrf
Organization: Department of Energy