Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XI, South Asia Crisis, 1971
Document 267
267. Memorandum From the Presidentʼs Assistant for National Security Affairs (
Kissinger
) to President
Nixon
1
Washington
,
December 10, 1971
.
SUBJECT
Information Items
India-Pakistan Situation
: The war in the East has reached its final stages. The Indian forces are encircling Dacca and preparing for the

final assault if the Pak forces in the capital area refuse to surrender. Pak resistance elsewhere in the province appears on the verge of total collapse, although they continue to hold some isolated areas. Faced with this desperate situation, the top Pak military official in Dacca has called on the
UN
to arrange (a) peaceful transfer of power to the “elected representatives of East Pakistan,” (b) an immediate cease-fire, (c) repatriation of the Pak forces to West Pakistan, (d) repatriation of all other West Pak personnel who desire to leave, (e) the safety of the others settled in East Pakistan since 1947 and (f) a guarantee of no reprisals.
In the West, the Indians seem to be successfully repulsing Pak attacks in Kashmir, but show no signs yet of initiating a major offensive of their own. Repeated Indian air strikes and shellings from naval forces on Karachi have dealt a major blow to Pakistanʼs
POL
supply. One experienced observer on the spot judges that under optimum conditions West Pakistan may run out of key
POL
items in about two weeks and, under the most likely combination of circumstances, supplies will dry up even sooner. In the Lahore and other areas to the north, the Indian air attacks are concentrating more heavily on communications, the power infrastructure and more direct military targets. Some observers think that the purpose of these heavy air attacks is to soften up West Pakistan for an all-out Indian ground offensive as soon as the situation is under control in the East. There are some unconfirmed reports that the Indians may already be beginning the process of shifting aircraft and troops to the Western front.
On the sea, the Paks have apparently given up trying to contest the approaches to their ports in both the East and West. The Paks, from
Yahya
on down, are charging that Soviet technicians
2
are aboard the OSA missile boats which have sunk a Pak destroyer and attacked the Karachi port area.
According to a reliable clandestine source, Mrs.
Gandhi
has said that there are “some indications” that the Chinese intend to intervene militarily. She did not reveal her evidence, but reportedly said that the Chinese may create border incidents in the East before the fall of Dacca and later take some action in the contested Ladakh area near Kashmir. So far, we have no evidence that the Chinese are actually planning such actions.
The
UN
could soon be seized with the Pak cease-fire request. Pakistan has also formally accepted the General Assembly resolution and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister
Bhutto
is arriving in New York to lead the Pak delegation. Before he left Islamabad,
Bhutto
said he would like to see you while he is in the
U.S.
and
Yahya
has expressed his hope that you can do this. Mrs.
Gandhi
, at a mass student

rally today, said that India “neither accepted nor rejected” the General Assembly resolution,
3
but was giving it “serious consideration.” Indian Foreign Minister Swaran
Singh
and Foreign Secretary
T.N. Kaul
are on their way to New York.
The Indians have announced a bombing pause over both Dacca and Karachi for evacuation purposes. Evacuation planes will be given safe conduct into Karachi for four-hour periods today and tomorrow and the Dacca airport is to be free from attacks for 24 hours so that it can be repaired. Foreign evacuation planes bound for Dacca will then be given safe conduct for 10 hours on Saturday on the condition that they land at Calcutta before and after going to Dacca.
UN
personnel reportedly will remain behind in Dacca for possible assistance in arranging a cease-fire or surrender.
[Omitted here are summary reports on foreign policy issues unrelated to South Asia.]
Contents
Preface
Sources
Abbreviations