[ { "id": "G1855", "original": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?", "negated": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" stayed above 20%?" }, { "id": "M6640", "original": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?" }, { "id": "M6644", "original": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "negated": "Will Apple deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?" }, { "id": "C113", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", "negated": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?" }, { "id": "G2288", "original": "Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia be restricted or banned from access to the SWIFT banking system?", "negated": "Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia retain access to the SWIFT banking system?" }, { "id": "M10144", "original": "Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Congress not pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2204", "original": "Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, become law?", "negated": "Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, fail to become law?" }, { "id": "M6307", "original": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "negated": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices not decline by >= 5% in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2109", "original": "Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"Worked from home and didn't travel to work\" fell to 15% or lower?", "negated": "Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"Worked from home and didn't travel to work\" stayed at 15% or higher?" }, { "id": "M7222", "original": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "negated": "Will fewer than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?" }, { "id": "G2036", "original": "Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?", "negated": "Will Great Britain win less gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?" }, { "id": "M6792", "original": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?", "negated": "Will there not be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?" }, { "id": "G2266", "original": "Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?", "negated": "Will the price of steel plate in the US be lower as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?" }, { "id": "G2084", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M7641", "original": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?", "negated": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) remain below 4% until 31 December 2021?" }, { "id": "M7629", "original": "Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?", "negated": "Will Virginia not announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "M7848", "original": "Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?", "negated": "Will Magdalena Andersson not be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?" }, { "id": "G1973", "original": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will Scott Morrison remain prime minister of Australia until 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "G1873", "original": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?", "negated": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order not be signed or federal legislation not become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?" }, { "id": "G1764", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee not announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "M10623", "original": "Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "negated": "Will Ukraine lose the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?" }, { "id": "G2096", "original": "Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments not be imposed on New York City?" }, { "id": "M7644", "original": "Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will no state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "G2054", "original": "Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?", "negated": "Will fewer than 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?" }, { "id": "M6776", "original": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", "negated": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell fewer units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?" }, { "id": "C163", "original": "Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?", "negated": "Besides El Salvador, will no other countries classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?" }, { "id": "M7225", "original": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "negated": "Will fewer than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7246", "original": "Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Federal government not issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7376", "original": "Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?", "negated": "Will the VIX Index remain above 15 until 9-01-21?" }, { "id": "M8854", "original": "Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", "negated": "Will India not ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M6781", "original": "Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "negated": "Will no member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?" }, { "id": "M6636", "original": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", "negated": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency be below 50.0%?" }, { "id": "G2087", "original": "Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Abiy Ahmed not cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1950", "original": "Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will France not grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M6384", "original": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?" }, { "id": "M7382", "original": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", "negated": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be below 4.0% for every 6 consecutive months before 2024?" }, { "id": "M4994", "original": "By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses?", "negated": "By start of 2022, will there not be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses?" }, { "id": "M5926", "original": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 not experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6000", "original": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "negated": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose both did not and would not have saved lives?" }, { "id": "M8004", "original": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?", "negated": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool not increase as a result of trading?" }, { "id": "M9007", "original": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G2215", "original": "Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?", "negated": "Will Canada not announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?" }, { "id": "G2165", "original": "Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, become law?", "negated": "Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, not become law?" }, { "id": "M7876", "original": "Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", "negated": "Will the United States support the 2022 Beijing Olympics?" }, { "id": "M6981", "original": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?" }, { "id": "M8524", "original": "Will Biden's Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", "negated": "Will Biden's Build Back Better Budget not include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?" }, { "id": "M6202", "original": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "negated": "Will the UK not have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?" }, { "id": "M6858", "original": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "negated": "Will San Francisco not issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?" }, { "id": "M4035", "original": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?", "negated": "Will the US not see mass price controls in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2301", "original": "Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) close above $238.00 per share?", "negated": "Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) always close below $238.00 per share?" }, { "id": "M5848", "original": "Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?", "negated": "Will the Election Fraud myth not persist among the American public for a full year?" }, { "id": "G1939", "original": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) not trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1975", "original": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?", "negated": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum not open to the general public before 1 August 2021?" }, { "id": "M6693", "original": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "negated": "Will Andrew Cuomo not be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?" }, { "id": "G2305", "original": "Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)?", "negated": "Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone stay below 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)?" }, { "id": "M6554", "original": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "negated": "Will this question not be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2020", "original": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?", "negated": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate not reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?" }, { "id": "M9455", "original": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?", "negated": "Will the Doomsday Clock not move closer to midnight in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9033", "original": "Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "negated": "Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate neither be blocked nor struck down by the US Supreme Court?" }, { "id": "M7688", "original": "Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?", "negated": "Will Aubrey de Grey not be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?" }, { "id": "M7190", "original": "Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "negated": "Will the UK Conservative Party lose the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?" }, { "id": "M7494", "original": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "negated": "Will the UK not experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1851", "original": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?", "negated": "Will Jair Bolsonaro remain president of Brazil until 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "G1864", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter not be announced by the author and/or publisher?" }, { "id": "M7115", "original": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?", "negated": "Will Gavin Newsom lose the 2021 California recall election?" }, { "id": "M5577", "original": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "negated": "Will Germany not overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?" }, { "id": "G2108", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden not invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?" }, { "id": "G2119", "original": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?", "negated": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court overturn the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?" }, { "id": "M9744", "original": "Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "negated": "Will less than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?" }, { "id": "G2066", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) not recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?" }, { "id": "G2145", "original": "Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) not officially announce a change to its weekend?" }, { "id": "M7129", "original": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in increasing trajectories AND report more than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M7958", "original": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "negated": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court not overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?" }, { "id": "M7554", "original": "Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will the US not have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1412", "original": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government not pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?" }, { "id": "G1912", "original": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?", "negated": "Will Russia not conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?" }, { "id": "M6429", "original": "Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "negated": "Will Silvio Berlusconi not be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?" }, { "id": "G2303", "original": "Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day?", "negated": "Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) not screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day?" }, { "id": "G1990", "original": "Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will the EU not amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "G2061", "original": "Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?", "negated": "Will the median price of a house in New Zealand not exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?" }, { "id": "M7152", "original": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?", "negated": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage not cause injuries or property damage?" }, { "id": "M9700", "original": "Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "negated": "Will Carrick Flynn lose the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?" }, { "id": "M7504", "original": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?" }, { "id": "M9764", "original": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "negated": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States not cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?" }, { "id": "M5883", "original": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", "negated": "Will Gladys Berejiklian remain Premier of NSW until the next state election?" }, { "id": "M7963", "original": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?", "negated": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate not pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?" }, { "id": "G1989", "original": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?", "negated": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML not obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?" }, { "id": "M7899", "original": "Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?", "negated": "Will Erin O'Toole lose the 2021 Canadian federal election?" }, { "id": "M5555", "original": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", "negated": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games not take place in 2021?" }, { "id": "M8024", "original": "Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not default on its debt before 1 November 2021?" }, { "id": "G1935", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. not officially rejoin the JCPOA?" }, { "id": "M7929", "original": "Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "negated": "Will the Republican candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?" }, { "id": "M9510", "original": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "negated": "Will EA Global London 2022 not be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?" }, { "id": "G2269", "original": "Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?" }, { "id": "M8768", "original": "Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "negated": "Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. not reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?" }, { "id": "G2243", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea not launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?" }, { "id": "M8984", "original": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Will Norway not win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "G1822", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon not announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?" }, { "id": "G2015", "original": "Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be higher than it was as of 18 May 2021?", "negated": "Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be lower than it was as of 18 May 2021?" }, { "id": "M7636", "original": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "negated": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools not be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "G1878", "original": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?", "negated": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar not exceed 9.00?" }, { "id": "G1715", "original": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "negated": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures not rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?" }, { "id": "G2103", "original": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?", "negated": "Will neither the UK nor the EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?" }, { "id": "M10255", "original": "Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?", "negated": "Will Sweden's government not initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?" }, { "id": "G2062", "original": "As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?", "negated": "As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi not list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?" }, { "id": "M7980", "original": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "negated": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley continue serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?" }, { "id": "M7553", "original": "Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will the US not have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M8898", "original": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8300", "original": "Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?", "negated": "Will the Fed not raise the RRR this year?" }, { "id": "M7514", "original": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "negated": "Will the Taliban not capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?" }, { "id": "G1945", "original": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?", "negated": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny not be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?" }, { "id": "M7138", "original": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?" }, { "id": "G2320", "original": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?", "negated": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft not successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?" }, { "id": "C102", "original": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will NVIDIA fail to acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2070", "original": "Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Haiti not hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M7542", "original": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the US not have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M5380", "original": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?", "negated": "Will John McAfee not receive a prison term of at least 3 years?" }, { "id": "C125", "original": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?", "negated": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fail to seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?" }, { "id": "M7224", "original": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "negated": "Will fewer than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6920", "original": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", "negated": "Will Israel not hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6790", "original": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", "negated": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home remain abnormal in the US in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1796", "original": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is constitutional?" }, { "id": "M9182", "original": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", "negated": "Will fewer than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?" }, { "id": "G2105", "original": "Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors not be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M5915", "original": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act not be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M8455", "original": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "negated": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?" }, { "id": "G1911", "original": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "negated": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin not hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2091", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline not begin delivering natural gas to Germany?" }, { "id": "G2102", "original": "Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Rishi Sunak continue to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M6898", "original": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries not boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "M7291", "original": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "negated": "Will Elizabeth Holmes not be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10609", "original": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?", "negated": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, not a member of the European Union?" }, { "id": "M5542", "original": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "negated": "Will Japan not place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?" }, { "id": "M9942", "original": "Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?", "negated": "Will Brent Crude Oil stay below $140/barrel before May 2022?" }, { "id": "G2002", "original": "Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?", "negated": "Will US print book sales in 2021 not exceed those in 2020?" }, { "id": "C943", "original": "Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7192", "original": "Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?", "negated": "Will Pedro Castillo loose the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?" }, { "id": "M6642", "original": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "negated": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union remain below that for the United States in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1972", "original": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?", "negated": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country not publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm before 15 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M6459", "original": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "negated": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament approve the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6024", "original": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?", "negated": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities not see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7017", "original": "Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?", "negated": "Will United States military troops not be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?" }, { "id": "M6008", "original": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "negated": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC not recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?" }, { "id": "M7643", "original": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "negated": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo no longer be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?" }, { "id": "C182", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?", "negated": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?" }, { "id": "M6444", "original": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "negated": "Will no Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7448", "original": "Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?", "negated": "Will NASA not issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?" }, { "id": "M7295", "original": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "negated": "Will the Coalition lose the next Australian federal election?" }, { "id": "M9315", "original": "Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?", "negated": "Will the Buffalo Bills not play in Super Bowl LVI?" }, { "id": "M6031", "original": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "negated": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants not infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?" }, { "id": "M10663", "original": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "negated": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter not agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?" }, { "id": "G1984", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will there not be a signed executive order or federal legislation that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?" }, { "id": "M5916", "original": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "negated": "Will 2021 not be the hottest year on record according to NASA?" }, { "id": "G1927", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?" }, { "id": "G2252", "original": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?", "negated": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day not occur on 31 March 2022?" }, { "id": "M7923", "original": "By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "negated": "By 31 December 2021 will no hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?" }, { "id": "M7223", "original": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "negated": "Will fewer than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?" }, { "id": "G1929", "original": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?", "negated": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia not result in five or more fatalities?" }, { "id": "M7214", "original": "Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?", "negated": "Will Taipei not enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?" }, { "id": "M8002", "original": "Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?", "negated": "Will less than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?" }, { "id": "G2010", "original": "Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "negated": "Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) not officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?" }, { "id": "M6458", "original": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "negated": "In 2021 will the European Commission not suspend all EU mink farming (including breeding), and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?" }, { "id": "M4745", "original": "Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?", "negated": "Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases not be achieved before January 1st, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2220", "original": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?", "negated": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury stay below 2.25% before 1 July 2022?" }, { "id": "G2064", "original": "Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law?", "negated": "Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 not become law?" }, { "id": "G1789", "original": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "negated": "By 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson remain prime minister of the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "M6367", "original": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "negated": "Will the University of California Berkeley not be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?" }, { "id": "M6639", "original": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", "negated": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers not win the 2021 NBA championship?" }, { "id": "M8121", "original": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "negated": "By 31 December 2021, will no Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?" }, { "id": "M8517", "original": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?", "negated": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces not cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?" }, { "id": "G2136", "original": "Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will the James Webb telescope not be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M6688", "original": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "negated": "Will Stripe not be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?" }, { "id": "M6318", "original": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?" }, { "id": "M9517", "original": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9993", "original": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "negated": "Will fewer than three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7096", "original": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "negated": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship not launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?" }, { "id": "G2007", "original": "Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer not announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?" }, { "id": "M5920", "original": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1982", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) not engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?" }, { "id": "G2071", "original": "Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?", "negated": "Will the US avoid fully evacuating and retain control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, until 1 December 2021?" }, { "id": "M9458", "original": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", "negated": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 not be awarded?" }, { "id": "M10051", "original": "Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US sanction neither Russian oil nor gas before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7119", "original": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will no SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M6145", "original": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "negated": "Will the price of Brent crude oil stay below $70 in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7073", "original": "Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?", "negated": "Will GB rowing men's team not win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?" }, { "id": "M6338", "original": "Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?", "negated": "Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election not be from the CDU/CSU union?" }, { "id": "G1931", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin remain the president of the Russian Federation until 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1870", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators not be launched in the People's Republic of China?" }, { "id": "M5311", "original": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?", "negated": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" not be pressed?" }, { "id": "M6656", "original": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will Tether not collapse by the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M10754", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "M5995", "original": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?", "negated": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur outside of Q1?" }, { "id": "M6291", "original": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?", "negated": "Will any of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?" }, { "id": "G1882", "original": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?", "negated": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 not become law before 14 August 2021?" }, { "id": "G2005", "original": "Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association not be ratified before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1919", "original": "Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M8673", "original": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries not diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "M9939", "original": "Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "negated": "Will Kyiv not fall to Russian forces by April 2022?" }, { "id": "M7492", "original": "Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?", "negated": "Will Sweden not have an extra election before the end of December 2021?" }, { "id": "G1918", "original": "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad not announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?" }, { "id": "M7378", "original": "Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?", "negated": "Will the MOVE Index not breach 70 before 11-01-21?" }, { "id": "M7537", "original": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?", "negated": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 not exceed 250 deaths/day?" }, { "id": "M6020", "original": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will none of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2296", "original": "Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?", "negated": "Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report fewer than 3.6 million cases of COVID-19 in Canada?" }, { "id": "G1900", "original": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?", "negated": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel not visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?" }, { "id": "M6158", "original": "Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?", "negated": "Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine not receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?" }, { "id": "M6637", "original": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", "negated": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 not set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?" }, { "id": "G2131", "original": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?", "negated": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 not attract 25 million visits?" }, { "id": "M7569", "original": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?", "negated": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the US than the UK?" }, { "id": "M6641", "original": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", "negated": "Will no vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6295", "original": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "negated": "Will US poverty be lower in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?" }, { "id": "G1993", "original": "Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "negated": "Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve not announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?" }, { "id": "M8456", "original": "Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?", "negated": "Will no restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?" }, { "id": "M7386", "original": "Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?", "negated": "Will Biden not pass an infrastructure package in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2053", "original": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index neither reach nor exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G2298", "original": "Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 reach or exceed 150.0?", "negated": "Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 stay below 150.0?" }, { "id": "M8980", "original": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", "negated": "Will Bongbong Marcos lose the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?" }, { "id": "M8982", "original": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", "negated": "Will Belfast (2021) not win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?" }, { "id": "M7128", "original": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "negated": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up less than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?" }, { "id": "G1775", "original": "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?", "negated": "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act does not protect the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?" }, { "id": "M9994", "original": "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "negated": "Will less than 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?" }, { "id": "G2014", "original": "Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?", "negated": "Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial loss (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?" }, { "id": "G2011", "original": "Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?", "negated": "Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook not allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?" }, { "id": "G2043", "original": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?", "negated": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be lower on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?" }, { "id": "C938", "original": "Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?", "negated": "Will China not send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?" }, { "id": "G1774", "original": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?", "negated": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero did not render the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?" }, { "id": "G1946", "original": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?", "negated": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes do not violate federal antitrust law?" }, { "id": "G1936", "original": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?", "negated": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. neither formally seek to join nor formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?" }, { "id": "M6659", "original": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "negated": "Will the United States House of Representatives not expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?" }, { "id": "M5918", "original": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "negated": "Will the world not agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?" }, { "id": "G2184", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?" }, { "id": "M5922", "original": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "negated": "Will Scotland not set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1823", "original": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?", "negated": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be lower in FY 2021 than FY 2019?" }, { "id": "M6646", "original": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?", "negated": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia not establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7774", "original": "Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will Sci-Hub not be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M8298", "original": "Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the Fed not announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7976", "original": "Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?", "negated": "Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten not resolve ambiguously?" }, { "id": "M6635", "original": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?", "negated": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a lower approval than disapproval rating?" }, { "id": "G1934", "original": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?", "negated": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar not cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?" }, { "id": "M9299", "original": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "negated": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers neither be blocked nor struck down by the US Supreme Court?" }, { "id": "G1916", "original": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?", "negated": "Will the United States report fewer deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?" }, { "id": "G1780", "original": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M9189", "original": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", "negated": "Will Liverpool not win the 2021-2022 Premier League?" }, { "id": "M6348", "original": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "negated": "Will EA Global London 2021 not be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?" }, { "id": "M6557", "original": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "negated": "Will there be fewer than 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1840", "original": "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?", "negated": "Will the U.S. consume less energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?" }, { "id": "G1891", "original": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Daniel Ortega continue to be the president of Nicaragua until 11 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M7113", "original": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will a Tesla car not demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M6316", "original": "Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?", "negated": "Will India's GDP not grow in the first three quarters of 2021?" }, { "id": "M9791", "original": "Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?", "negated": "Will Éric Zemmour lose the French presidential election in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7987", "original": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", "negated": "In 2022, will there exist a month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), with inflation more than 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?" }, { "id": "M6447", "original": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "negated": "Will less than 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?" }, { "id": "M7737", "original": "Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "negated": "Will less than 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?" }, { "id": "G2308", "original": "Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index close at an all-time high?", "negated": "Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index never close at all-time high?" }, { "id": "G1841", "original": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?", "negated": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region not be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?" }, { "id": "M8454", "original": "Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "negated": "Will implementation of “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?" }, { "id": "G2297", "original": "Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election?", "negated": "Will Marine Le Pen place neither first nor second in the 2022 French presidential election?" }, { "id": "M6381", "original": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", "negated": "Will the US not rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?" }, { "id": "M10753", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2130", "original": "Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only?", "negated": "Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will remain face-to-face only?" }, { "id": "G1995", "original": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism not become law before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M2511", "original": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?", "negated": "Will Emmanuel Macron not be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election" }, { "id": "M8003", "original": "Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?", "negated": "Will less than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?" }, { "id": "M6837", "original": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "negated": "Will Taylor Swift not release a new album in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1985", "original": "Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will the EU not establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M6051", "original": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "negated": "Will Andrew Yang loose the 2021 New York City mayoral election?" }, { "id": "M6801", "original": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "negated": "Will neither the Duke nor Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1868", "original": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea not sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "G1815", "original": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan not sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?" }, { "id": "G1897", "original": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?", "negated": "Will North Macedonia not announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "M8984", "original": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Will Norway not win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "G2101", "original": "Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?", "negated": "Will the Liberal Party lose a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?" }, { "id": "G1926", "original": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?", "negated": "Will Saudi Arabia not diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1876", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, not launch a stablecoin?" }, { "id": "G2012", "original": "Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will not commence in July 2021?", "negated": "Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will commence in July 2021?" }, { "id": "M6709", "original": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "negated": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults not be allocated by 31 May 2021?" }, { "id": "C127", "original": "Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will no G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2097", "original": "Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?", "negated": "Before 13 February 2022, will there not be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?" }, { "id": "G1903", "original": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?", "negated": "Will Nicaragua not diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?" }, { "id": "M7106", "original": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "negated": "Will Magnus Carlsen not retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?" }, { "id": "G2009", "original": "Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will the US not announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M3445", "original": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong-un cease to be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M804", "original": "Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?", "negated": "Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be negative?" }, { "id": "G2104", "original": "Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", "negated": "Will Sir Keir Starmer not face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?" }, { "id": "M7162", "original": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial not be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7578", "original": "Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court not hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10080", "original": "Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1930", "original": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M7734", "original": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?", "negated": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, stay until Kabul is captured by the Taliban?" }, { "id": "G1842", "original": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?", "negated": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon not exceed the 2020 total count?" }, { "id": "M8829", "original": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice not be confirmed before January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8095", "original": "Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?", "negated": "Will LDP cease to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?" }, { "id": "M9918", "original": "Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?", "negated": "Before April 2022, will martial law not be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?" }, { "id": "M7495", "original": "Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?", "negated": "Will the power not go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?" }, { "id": "G1816", "original": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?", "negated": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft not complete a successful test flight before 2022?" }, { "id": "G2038", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community not publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?" }, { "id": "G2073", "original": "Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?", "negated": "Will Ashraf Ghani neither flee Afghanistan nor cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?" }, { "id": "M6853", "original": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court not grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M9693", "original": "Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?", "negated": "Will the gray wolf not be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7663", "original": "Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?", "negated": "Will the Taliban not capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?" }, { "id": "M9875", "original": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "negated": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will fewer than 1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?" }, { "id": "G1872", "original": "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?", "negated": "Will the United States and China not sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?" }, { "id": "M5914", "original": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will Netanyahu not be convicted by the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M2606", "original": "In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?", "negated": "In 2021, will Blizzard not announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?" }, { "id": "M9609", "original": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "negated": "Will Viktor Orbán lose the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?" }, { "id": "M9940", "original": "If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?", "negated": "If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly not override the veto?" }, { "id": "M5415", "original": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?" }, { "id": "G2016", "original": "Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?", "negated": "Before 22 July 2021, will neither Hamas nor the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?" }, { "id": "M7221", "original": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "negated": "Will fewer than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?" }, { "id": "G1863", "original": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?", "negated": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court not rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?" }, { "id": "C99", "original": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?", "negated": "Will the United States fail to return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?" }, { "id": "G2060", "original": "Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?", "negated": "Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique not be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?" }, { "id": "G1896", "original": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate not reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "G2018", "original": "Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?", "negated": "Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers not sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?" }, { "id": "C164", "original": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fail to seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M5552", "original": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "negated": "Will the (English speaking) world be less happy in 2021 than in 2020?" }, { "id": "M6959", "original": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", "negated": "Will there not be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?" }, { "id": "G2302", "original": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?", "negated": "Will the UK or EU not trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?" }, { "id": "M9933", "original": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will no NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1792", "original": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?", "negated": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain president of Turkey until 15 July 2021?" }, { "id": "G1411", "original": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government not pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?" }, { "id": "M9021", "original": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?", "negated": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope not have seen First Light?" }, { "id": "M8815", "original": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?", "negated": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be natural before 2023?" }, { "id": "M4774", "original": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "negated": "Will Scott Morrison not be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?" }, { "id": "M6419", "original": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "negated": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) not be expelled or resign by 2022?" }, { "id": "M7069", "original": "Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?", "negated": "Will the Pentagon report on UAPs not dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?" }, { "id": "M7097", "original": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "negated": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship not launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?" }, { "id": "M6700", "original": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", "negated": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be lower in 2021 than in 2020?" }, { "id": "M6763", "original": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "negated": "Will Marine Le Pen lose the 2022 French presidential election?" }, { "id": "M9348", "original": "Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?", "negated": "Will Princeton have in person classes in January 2022?" }, { "id": "M5721", "original": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "negated": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt not be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1958", "original": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Robinhood not receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M6094", "original": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "negated": "Will YouTube not be blocked in Russia in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2307", "original": "Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%?", "negated": "Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be lower than or equal to 4.15%?" }, { "id": "G2100", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?", "negated": "Until 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied continue to be the president of Tunisia?" }, { "id": "G1962", "original": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", "negated": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft not dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?" }, { "id": "M9462", "original": "Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1947", "original": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?", "negated": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) remain below 20% before September 2021?" }, { "id": "G1806", "original": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?", "negated": "For every seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be more than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?" }, { "id": "C126", "original": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?", "negated": "Will China not sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?" }, { "id": "C938", "original": "Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?", "negated": "Will China not send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?" }, { "id": "G1971", "original": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?", "negated": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) not be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?" }, { "id": "G2088", "original": "Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?", "negated": "Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly not recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?" }, { "id": "G1951", "original": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "negated": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be lower in 2021 than it was in 2019?" }, { "id": "G1974", "original": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?", "negated": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage not become law before 20 August 2021?" }, { "id": "M8046", "original": "Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?", "negated": "Will the Israeli Knesset not pass a budget by November 30th?" }, { "id": "M6782", "original": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", "negated": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts not go into effect?" }, { "id": "M7969", "original": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "negated": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA not approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?" }, { "id": "M9747", "original": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "negated": "Will Norway not win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?" }, { "id": "G1963", "original": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", "negated": "Will the US FDA not approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "M7123", "original": "Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?", "negated": "Will medical practices not overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?" }, { "id": "M6018", "original": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Restaurant Brands International continue sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1718", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate not expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?" }, { "id": "M6296", "original": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "negated": "Will the US unemployment rate drop below 5% through November 2021?" }, { "id": "M1457", "original": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "negated": "Will the next German federal election result in the replacement of Angela Merkel?" }, { "id": "G2045", "original": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?", "negated": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be lower than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?" }, { "id": "G1908", "original": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?" }, { "id": "M6970", "original": "Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "negated": "Will vaccinated American citizens not be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?" }, { "id": "M9590", "original": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "negated": "Will there not be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?" }, { "id": "M7635", "original": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "negated": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID not be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?" }, { "id": "G2099", "original": "Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?", "negated": "Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court allow any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?" }, { "id": "G2033", "original": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?", "negated": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil not exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2306", "original": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?", "negated": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson not be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?" }, { "id": "G1781", "original": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?" }, { "id": "M8578", "original": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "negated": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse not be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?" }, { "id": "M8758", "original": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "negated": "Will the U.S. CDC not classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?" }, { "id": "M5541", "original": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", "negated": "Will USA not top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?" }, { "id": "M10845", "original": "Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?" }, { "id": "M6025", "original": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?", "negated": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities not see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?" }, { "id": "G2172", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will all Latin American or Caribbean nations continue to formally recognize Taiwan?" }, { "id": "M6092", "original": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "negated": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index remain below 3.0% until 2024?" }, { "id": "M8859", "original": "Will Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not ban wheat export before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M8027", "original": "Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will Evergrande not default on its debt before the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M7524", "original": "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the US have fewer than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1894", "original": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. not vote in the affirmative to form a union?" }, { "id": "G2277", "original": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 May 2022?", "negated": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky stay in Ukraine and continue to be its president before 25 May 2022?" }, { "id": "M5730", "original": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "negated": "Will Biden fail to keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?" }, { "id": "M7220", "original": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "negated": "Will fewer than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?" }, { "id": "M10282", "original": "Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not default on its debt in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9029", "original": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?", "negated": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics not be completed fully or experience delays?" }, { "id": "G1910", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M4946", "original": "Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?", "negated": "Will Antifa not officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?" }, { "id": "G2106", "original": "Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?", "negated": "Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) not announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?" }, { "id": "M7947", "original": "Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will the US Supreme Court not rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M9790", "original": "Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "negated": "Will Éric Zemmour not be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?" }, { "id": "M5574", "original": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "negated": "Will China not reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?" }, { "id": "M2578", "original": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", "negated": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW not be sold before 2022?" }, { "id": "M9584", "original": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "negated": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson not be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?" }, { "id": "M5826", "original": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "negated": "Will the price of bitcoin remain at or above $10K USD in 2021?" }, { "id": "M7139", "original": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "negated": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be less than 1,000?" }, { "id": "G58", "original": "Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?", "negated": "What questions are not important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?" }, { "id": "M4903", "original": "If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?", "negated": "If tested, would GPT-3 not demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?" }, { "id": "M1385", "original": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", "negated": "Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?" }, { "id": "M5882", "original": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "negated": "Will the next US presidential election not be considered fraudulent by the losing party?" }, { "id": "M3026", "original": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?", "negated": "Will Tom Brady not retire when his current contract is up?" }, { "id": "M2802", "original": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?", "negated": "Is the Collatz Conjecture false?" }, { "id": "M2621", "original": "In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?", "negated": "For every year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of less than 8.7%?" }, { "id": "M4894", "original": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.", "negated": "Will slaughterhouses not be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050?" }, { "id": "M7068", "original": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?", "negated": "Will neither a meat nor dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?" }, { "id": "M73", "original": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?", "negated": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test not be passed by 2026?" }, { "id": "M4969", "original": "This question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?", "negated": "Will no one report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?" }, { "id": "M570", "original": "Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?", "negated": "Will a major United States earthquake not strike by end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M6632", "original": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", "negated": "Will we not find life on Mars by 2050?" }, { "id": "M2665", "original": "Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?", "negated": "Will Volkswagen Group have produced more than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?" }, { "id": "M3588", "original": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?", "negated": "Will Stacey Abrams not be elected president in or before the 2040 election?" }, { "id": "M4863", "original": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", "negated": "Will Project Vesta not exist in 2030?" }, { "id": "M1494", "original": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it not be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?" }, { "id": "M2751", "original": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?", "negated": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript not be successfully translated by 2050?" }, { "id": "M4779", "original": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?", "negated": "Will a nuclear weapon not be detonated as an act of war by 2050?" }, { "id": "M5406", "original": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?", "negated": "Will there not be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?" }, { "id": "M6352", "original": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "negated": "Will the Insurrection Act not be invoked before 2025?" }, { "id": "M981", "original": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?", "negated": "Will cannabis not be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?" }, { "id": "M1429", "original": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", "negated": "Will Half-Life 3 not come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?" }, { "id": "M4849", "original": "Will any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?", "negated": "Will no science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?" }, { "id": "M665", "original": "By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?", "negated": "By 2050 will we not have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?" }, { "id": "M2962", "original": "Short Fuse: Will more than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?", "negated": "Will less than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?" }, { "id": "M1681", "original": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?", "negated": "Will George R. R. Martin still be living by the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?" }, { "id": "M353", "original": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "negated": "Will no one born before 2001 live to be 150?" }, { "id": "M381", "original": "Will commerically-available automated speech exceed human level in 2017?", "negated": "Will commerically-available automated speech not exceed human level in 2017?" }, { "id": "M841", "original": "Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?", "negated": "Will Metaculus not be operating on January 1st 2030?" }, { "id": "M3111", "original": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", "negated": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b not host life?" }, { "id": "M145", "original": "Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?", "negated": "Will no (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?" }, { "id": "M6312", "original": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "negated": "Will Kamala Harris not be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?" }, { "id": "M737", "original": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not land anything on Mars before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3127", "original": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?", "negated": "Will neither a space elevator nor a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?" }, { "id": "M4456", "original": "After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?", "negated": "After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States not conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?" }, { "id": "M6546", "original": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "negated": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme not be banned in the United States before 2023?" }, { "id": "M247", "original": "Will there be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025?", "negated": "Will there not be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025?" }, { "id": "M1554", "original": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?", "negated": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes not fall below that of Germany by 2025?" }, { "id": "M2797", "original": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will any non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M2561", "original": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "negated": "Will no Metaculus users report from space before 2050?" }, { "id": "M323", "original": "By start of 2019, will a \"reactionless EM drive\" (broadly construed) be launched on a rocket?", "negated": "By start of 2019, will a \"reactionless EM drive\" (broadly construed) not be launched on a rocket?" }, { "id": "M6108", "original": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "negated": "Will Norway remain within the EEA before 2025?" }, { "id": "M3749", "original": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", "negated": "Will the key to all pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file not be publicly available by 2030?" }, { "id": "M1576", "original": "Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "negated": "Will we see more than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?" }, { "id": "M3820", "original": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "negated": "Will 1 bitcoin stay less than $100,000 until 2025?" }, { "id": "M6365", "original": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", "negated": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved false, if it is proved by 2100?" }, { "id": "M2937", "original": "At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?", "negated": "At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will neither the CDC nor another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?" }, { "id": "M4616", "original": "Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?", "negated": "Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) not fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?" }, { "id": "M608", "original": "Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?", "negated": "Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 not be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?" }, { "id": "M3621", "original": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", "negated": "Will no third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?" }, { "id": "M5462", "original": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "negated": "Will Erin O'Toole not become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?" }, { "id": "M3681", "original": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "negated": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 did not originate inside a research lab in Hubei?" }, { "id": "M797", "original": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "negated": "Will Puerto Rico not become a US state prior to 2035?" }, { "id": "M1624", "original": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?", "negated": "Will a mouse not be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?" }, { "id": "M5866", "original": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?", "negated": "Will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively below 60 percent and above 7.5 percent?" }, { "id": "M1646", "original": "Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?", "negated": "Before January 1 2100, will the human condition not change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?" }, { "id": "M3386", "original": "Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?", "negated": "Will US consumers be able to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?" }, { "id": "M1517", "original": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", "negated": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, not be revealed to the general public by 2025?" }, { "id": "M5173", "original": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", "negated": "Will transformer derived architectures not accelerate progress in deep learning?" }, { "id": "M280", "original": "By the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?", "negated": "By the year 2100, will computer simulations not be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?" }, { "id": "G218", "original": "As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?", "negated": "As of 1 June 2017, will no European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?" }, { "id": "M6306", "original": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "negated": "Will a third-party or independent candidate not win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?" }, { "id": "M5865", "original": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", "negated": "Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be below 2 percent?" }, { "id": "M639", "original": "Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* agree with the prediction of general relativity ?", "negated": "Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* disagree with the prediction of general relativity ?" }, { "id": "M1079", "original": "Will the total interest in Elon Musk on Google Trends in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020?", "negated": "Will the total interest in Elon Musk on Google Trends in 2025 be more than a quarter of his total interest in 2020?" }, { "id": "M5683", "original": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?", "negated": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) not overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?" }, { "id": "M1631", "original": "Will Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the Index of Economic Freedom?", "negated": "Will Cuba not be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the Index of Economic Freedom?" }, { "id": "M5049", "original": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "negated": "If Trump is sworn in as President in 2021, will he not become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?" }, { "id": "C122", "original": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Hu Chunhua not be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M4742", "original": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "negated": "Will Mount Rushmore not be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?" }, { "id": "M6663", "original": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "negated": "Will MIRI not employ researchers in 2030?" }, { "id": "M3528", "original": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "negated": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress not become US federal law by the end of 2024?" }, { "id": "M7065", "original": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?", "negated": "Will no cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?" }, { "id": "M4037", "original": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "negated": "Will all sitting US president seeks reelection before the 2080 election?" }, { "id": "M4349", "original": "On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?", "negated": "On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have fewer assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?" }, { "id": "M4788", "original": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?", "negated": "Will artificial superintelligence not precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?" }, { "id": "M7083", "original": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", "negated": "Will Mike Pence not be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?" }, { "id": "M3834", "original": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "negated": "Will no conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?" }, { "id": "M4238", "original": "Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?", "negated": "Will Metaculus beat experts on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?" }, { "id": "M4034", "original": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", "negated": "By 2030, will C. elegans not be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?" }, { "id": "M1669", "original": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?", "negated": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it fail in transmitting cosmological data?" }, { "id": "M6021", "original": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", "negated": "Will none of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?" }, { "id": "M4908", "original": "If the Republican candidate wins the electoral college in 2020, will they lose the popular vote?", "negated": "If the Republican candidate wins the electoral college in 2020, will they win the popular vote?" }, { "id": "M6313", "original": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", "negated": "Will there be more than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?" }, { "id": "M3863", "original": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", "negated": "Will Germany not make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?" }, { "id": "G347", "original": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the US Presidential election?", "negated": "OPINION, REMOVE" }, { "id": "G348", "original": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the Senate and House elections?", "negated": "OPINION, REMOVE" }, { "id": "M3617", "original": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?", "negated": "Will the US supreme court remain the same size by 2050?" }, { "id": "M658", "original": "Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050?", "negated": "Will we not create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050?" }, { "id": "M1683", "original": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", "negated": "Will the Kármán Line remain the same before 2023?" }, { "id": "M1052", "original": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?", "negated": "Will there not be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?" }, { "id": "M4882", "original": "Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by Alexa Traffic Rank?", "negated": "Will none of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by Alexa Traffic Rank?" }, { "id": "M916", "original": "Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030?", "negated": "Are we unable to prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030?" }, { "id": "M3606", "original": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "negated": "Will a Wealth Tax not be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?" }, { "id": "M3021", "original": "By 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?", "negated": "By 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results not be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?" }, { "id": "M669", "original": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", "negated": "Will KIC 9832227 not go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?" }, { "id": "M5316", "original": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", "negated": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus not involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?" }, { "id": "M1650", "original": "Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?", "negated": "Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 not be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?" }, { "id": "M645", "original": "By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security?", "negated": "By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) not be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security?" }, { "id": "M6023", "original": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "negated": "Will no charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?" }, { "id": "M5407", "original": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "negated": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it not set a record for the largest IPO?" }, { "id": "M3458", "original": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", "negated": "Will there be no culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6508", "original": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin underperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?" }, { "id": "M1348", "original": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", "negated": "Will no mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?" }, { "id": "M2817", "original": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?", "negated": "In 2029, will the US have more than 3,800 nuclear weapons?" }, { "id": "M1568", "original": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?", "negated": "Will we not detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?" }, { "id": "M1598", "original": "Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not personally go to Mars?" }, { "id": "G83", "original": "Open: What news stories have prompted you to reassess your opinion of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "negated": "Open: What news stories have not prompted you to reassess your opinion of the Iranian nuclear deal?" }, { "id": "M5320", "original": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "negated": "Will the People's Republic of China have not ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?" }, { "id": "M6506", "original": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?", "negated": "Will there not be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?" }, { "id": "M5319", "original": "Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "negated": "Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations not recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?" }, { "id": "M574", "original": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?", "negated": "Will chess not be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?" }, { "id": "M348", "original": "Will any of the current top 30 of oldest living persons as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?", "negated": "Will none of the current top 30 of oldest living persons as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?" }, { "id": "M5875", "original": "Will online poker die by 2030?", "negated": "Will online poker not die by 2030?" }, { "id": "M1059", "original": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?", "negated": "Before 2051, will no meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?" }, { "id": "M3645", "original": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", "negated": "By 2030, will commercial passengers not routinely fly in pilotless planes?" }, { "id": "M1583", "original": "Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?", "negated": "Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be accepted?" }, { "id": "M2649", "original": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?", "negated": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) not be finished on time?" }, { "id": "M6479", "original": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?", "negated": "Will there not be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?" }, { "id": "M803", "original": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "negated": "Will 256-bit ECC be broken before 2048-bit RSA?" }, { "id": "M824", "original": "When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China?", "negated": "When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be somewhere else besides China?" }, { "id": "M498", "original": "At start of 2019, will more than 10 countries be listed with B or A grades on this index?", "negated": "At start of 2019, will fewer than 10 countries be listed with B or A grades on this index?" }, { "id": "M557", "original": "Will two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?", "negated": "Will two Category 4+ hurricanes not hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?" }, { "id": "M2713", "original": "This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?", "negated": "This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be less than 36.9 million, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?" }, { "id": "G212", "original": "Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?", "negated": "Open: What questions should we not ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?" }, { "id": "M1535", "original": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", "negated": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) not eventually decay?" }, { "id": "M4670", "original": "Will the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model?", "negated": "Will neither the XENON1T or successor experiment announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model?" }, { "id": "M888", "original": "Will patches fixing this round of Specter-NG vulnerabilities be available for end-user via automatic Windows 10 updates by the end of August, for the most recent micro-architecture?", "negated": "Will patches fixing this round of Specter-NG vulnerabilities not be available for end-user via automatic Windows 10 updates by the end of August, for the most recent micro-architecture?" }, { "id": "M953", "original": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "negated": "Will Mike Pence not be elected president of the United States in 2024?" }, { "id": "M201", "original": "Trump to get told \"You're Fired!\" ?", "negated": "Trump to not get told \"You're Fired!\" ?" }, { "id": "M255", "original": "By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported?", "negated": "By 2025 will a bioterror attack not occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported?" }, { "id": "G126", "original": "Open (Exit Poll): Were you surprised by the outcome of Iowa's caucuses?", "negated": "Open (Exit Poll): Were you not surprised by the outcome of Iowa's caucuses?" }, { "id": "M3842", "original": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", "negated": "Will no reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?" }, { "id": "M3517", "original": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?", "negated": "Will there not be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?" }, { "id": "M483", "original": "50% hit rate for the Kepler optical planet detections?", "negated": "50% hit rate for the Kepler optical planet detections." }, { "id": "M3371", "original": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", "negated": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union not enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?" }, { "id": "M968", "original": "In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the linked-to index have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?", "negated": "Will there be no quarter prior to Q1 2030, such that the linked-to index has a value less than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?" }, { "id": "M6421", "original": "Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?", "negated": "Will Substack not be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?" }, { "id": "M490", "original": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "negated": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup not go ahead in Qatar?" }, { "id": "M3393", "original": "Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?", "negated": "Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was not Jeanne Calment?" }, { "id": "M3647", "original": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "negated": "By 2025 will there not be scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?" }, { "id": "M1515", "original": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?", "negated": "Do humans not have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?" }, { "id": "M6478", "original": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "negated": "Will a Republican win the 2024 US presidential election?" }, { "id": "M4527", "original": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 not hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?" }, { "id": "M3477", "original": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?", "negated": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by less than 30.0% in all of the subsequent 15 years?" }, { "id": "M4872", "original": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?", "negated": "Will photonic tensor cores not be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?" }, { "id": "M492", "original": "Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?", "negated": "Will all countries that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 not give them up before 2035?" }, { "id": "M3364", "original": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", "negated": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, not be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6420", "original": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "negated": "Will Matt Levine not join substack before 2023?" }, { "id": "M1493", "original": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "negated": "By 2100 will the human population not decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?" }, { "id": "M4013", "original": "Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?", "negated": "Will the first United States recession before 2032 not lead to a Depression?" }, { "id": "G1659", "original": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) not become law?" }, { "id": "M491", "original": "Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?", "negated": "Will China not reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6725", "original": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "negated": "Will no large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?" }, { "id": "M477", "original": "Will MEND be independently replicated by 2025?", "negated": "Will MEND not be independently replicated by 2025?" }, { "id": "M4873", "original": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", "negated": "Will OpenAI not reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?" }, { "id": "M6462", "original": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "negated": "Will the use of whips not be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?" }, { "id": "M4979", "original": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?", "negated": "Will a mini-Maunder event not occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?" }, { "id": "M3616", "original": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", "negated": "Will no new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?" }, { "id": "M6423", "original": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", "negated": "Will no member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?" }, { "id": "M5048", "original": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "negated": "Will the United Kingdom not rejoin the European Union before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3429", "original": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "negated": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur not be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?" }, { "id": "M1539", "original": "Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?", "negated": "Will there, by 2100, not have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?" }, { "id": "M4677", "original": "In the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?", "negated": "In the year 2031, will less than 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?" }, { "id": "M5687", "original": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", "negated": "Will Trump not be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?" }, { "id": "M3439", "original": "Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?", "negated": "Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election not be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?" }, { "id": "M1538", "original": "Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?", "negated": "Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe (given that a global catastrophe does occur) ever rise above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?" }, { "id": "M604", "original": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?", "negated": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes not be detected by November 30, 2027?" }, { "id": "M1625", "original": "By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", "negated": "By January 1, 2050, will it not be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?" }, { "id": "M6509", "original": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", "negated": "Will the control problem not be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?" }, { "id": "M1558", "original": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?", "negated": "Will the Cavendish account for more than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?" }, { "id": "M3484", "original": "Will we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?", "negated": "Will we see more than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?" }, { "id": "M1658", "original": "If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019, as planned, will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar?", "negated": "If the United Kingdom does not leave the European Union on 29 March 2019, will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar?" }, { "id": "M3071", "original": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?", "negated": "Will Roger Federer not win another Grand Slam title?" }, { "id": "M3633", "original": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "negated": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 not agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?" }, { "id": "M3745", "original": "Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will the FDA not authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M6590", "original": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", "negated": "Will Ron DeSantis not be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?" }, { "id": "M5814", "original": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "negated": "Will Republicans not win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?" }, { "id": "M2790", "original": "Will a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?", "negated": "Will a self-driving car not make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?" }, { "id": "C121", "original": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Chen Min'er not be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M2619", "original": "By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?", "negated": "By 2050, will no reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?" }, { "id": "M4118", "original": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "negated": "Will there not be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?" }, { "id": "M7072", "original": "Will there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?", "negated": "Will there not be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?" }, { "id": "C89", "original": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?", "negated": "Will the U.S. government not file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?" }, { "id": "M3733", "original": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?", "negated": "Will no bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?" }, { "id": "M6422", "original": "Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?", "negated": "Will no one make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?" }, { "id": "M384", "original": "Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?", "negated": "Will there not be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?" }, { "id": "M2898", "original": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?", "negated": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth less than double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?" }, { "id": "M6887", "original": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?", "negated": "Will Jannik Sinner not be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?" }, { "id": "M4826", "original": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", "negated": "Will no Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?" }, { "id": "M1090", "original": "Will the next assassination of a sitting US President occur after January 1, 2100?", "negated": "Will the next assassination of a sitting US President occur before January 1, 2100?" }, { "id": "M5509", "original": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", "negated": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere not be independently reproduced by 2023?" }, { "id": "M2518", "original": "This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2025, will no eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?" }, { "id": "M1642", "original": "This question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?", "negated": "At any point before 2030, will it not be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?" }, { "id": "M1640", "original": "Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?", "negated": "Before Janury 1 2025, will no human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?" }, { "id": "G600", "original": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in India (IND) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset not record an event perpetrated by a state actor in India (IND) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G139", "original": "(Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "negated": "(Opinion) Do you disapprove or approve of the Iranian nuclear deal?" }, { "id": "M4328", "original": "What is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?", "negated": "What is the probability that less than 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?" }, { "id": "M3332", "original": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?", "negated": "Will James Bedford not be revived or emulated before 2200?" }, { "id": "M1384", "original": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "negated": "Will MDMA not be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?" }, { "id": "M3416", "original": "Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", "negated": "Will Alexi Navalny not become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?" }, { "id": "M480", "original": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", "negated": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white not winning?" }, { "id": "M3215", "original": "Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among macrosociology models?", "negated": "Prior to 2030, will more than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among macrosociology models?" }, { "id": "M6660", "original": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?", "negated": "Will the UK government not announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?" }, { "id": "M4997", "original": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", "negated": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company not have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?" }, { "id": "G186", "original": "Will at least 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016?", "negated": "Will fewer than 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016?" }, { "id": "M5120", "original": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", "negated": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 not demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?" }, { "id": "M612", "original": "Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?" }, { "id": "M610", "original": "Will a world war begin before 2151?", "negated": "Will a world war not begin before 2151?" }, { "id": "M1601", "original": "Will poker player Alati win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?", "negated": "Will poker player Alati not win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?" }, { "id": "M6870", "original": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", "negated": "Will global fertility remain above 0.25 births per woman by 2045?" }, { "id": "M3158", "original": "If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?", "negated": "If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will not all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?" }, { "id": "G1620", "original": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union not delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?" }, { "id": "M7052", "original": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", "negated": "Will none of the top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?" }, { "id": "M372", "original": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "negated": "Will human brain emulation not be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?" }, { "id": "M4864", "original": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?", "negated": "Will CarbonCure not exist in 2030?" }, { "id": "M3360", "original": "Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?", "negated": "Will <8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?" }, { "id": "M6648", "original": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", "negated": "VSS outperforms BTC from 2021-03-01 until 2026?" }, { "id": "M3777", "original": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", "negated": "Will reducing wild animal suffering not be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?" }, { "id": "M3361", "original": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", "negated": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 not decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?" }, { "id": "M3410", "original": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?", "negated": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be greater than or equal to 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?" }, { "id": "M3042", "original": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", "negated": "Will wildfires not destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?" }, { "id": "M18", "original": "Will Rossi's 1MW \"E-Cat\" tests lead to continued significant financial investment?", "negated": "Will Rossi's 1MW \"E-Cat\" tests not lead to continued significant financial investment?" }, { "id": "M215", "original": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?", "negated": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?" }, { "id": "M615", "original": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", "negated": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world remain above zero?" }, { "id": "M6967", "original": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?", "negated": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements not be labeled unhealthy before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7010", "original": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", "negated": "Will mixed doubles not be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?" }, { "id": "M2754", "original": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for two consecutive Saturdays, will fewer than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?", "negated": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for two consecutive Saturdays, will more than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?" }, { "id": "M945", "original": "Will they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023?", "negated": "Will they not bring any lunar material back by start of 2023?" }, { "id": "M1500", "original": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it not be principally due to human-made climate change, nor the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?" }, { "id": "M603", "original": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?", "negated": "Will no human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?" }, { "id": "M1402", "original": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", "negated": "Will Parker Solar Probe not survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?" }, { "id": "M7058", "original": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?", "negated": "Will no incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?" }, { "id": "M5414", "original": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "negated": "Will the UK not have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?" }, { "id": "M489", "original": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "negated": "Will the European Union not meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?" }, { "id": "M4544", "original": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", "negated": "Will there be more Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?" }, { "id": "M6994", "original": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", "negated": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow less than €50bn in 2027?" }, { "id": "M6691", "original": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "negated": "Will none of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?" }, { "id": "M3251", "original": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?", "negated": "Will Israel not be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?" }, { "id": "M6710", "original": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "negated": "Will not every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?" }, { "id": "M1432", "original": "Will humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?", "negated": "Will humans not have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?" }, { "id": "M566", "original": "Will any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030?", "negated": "Will any Kurdish independence movement fail to succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030?" }, { "id": "M5260", "original": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?", "negated": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue not feature a human?" }, { "id": "M3241", "original": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", "negated": "Will the IAU not rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?" }, { "id": "M4883", "original": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", "negated": "Will Metaculus fail to anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?" }, { "id": "M2709", "original": "By the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?", "negated": "By the end of 2025, will ITER not announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?" }, { "id": "M3772", "original": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", "negated": "Will no sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?" }, { "id": "M1591", "original": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?", "negated": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be less than 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?" }, { "id": "M254", "original": "By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported?", "negated": "By 2025 will a bioterror attack not occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported?" }, { "id": "M6456", "original": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", "negated": "Will the EU not phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?" }, { "id": "M5540", "original": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "negated": "Will no US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3665", "original": "Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", "negated": "Will renewable energy not contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?" }, { "id": "M5919", "original": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing before 2027?", "negated": "Will India not have a successful crewed moon landing before 2027?" }, { "id": "M5217", "original": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "negated": "Will Free Greens not gain any seats in the next Danish general election?" }, { "id": "M2795", "original": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "negated": "Will NASA's SLS not launch a person to the Moon before 2024?" }, { "id": "M1534", "original": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?", "negated": "Will the incarceration rate in the US not drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?" }, { "id": "M1653", "original": "This question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas not be used successfully in any mammal?" }, { "id": "M1502", "original": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it not be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?" }, { "id": "M5717", "original": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not be elected president of the United States in 2024?" }, { "id": "M5313", "original": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "negated": "Will Planet Nine not be discovered before 2030?" }, { "id": "M4319", "original": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "negated": "By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States not drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?" }, { "id": "M4061", "original": "Before 2025, will any of the major AI companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?", "negated": "Before 2025, will any of the major AI companies/organizations not ratify a Windfall Clause?" }, { "id": "M1478", "original": "Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024?", "negated": "Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT not see first light in 2024?" }, { "id": "M5459", "original": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", "negated": "Will Psilocybin not be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?" }, { "id": "M3351", "original": "Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?", "negated": "Will the WHO not certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?" }, { "id": "G82", "original": "Will the National Retail Federation report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion?", "negated": "Will the National Retail Federation not report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion?" }, { "id": "M6940", "original": "By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?", "negated": "By 2030, will fewer than 10,000 Americans die in a single year from any single conflict?" }, { "id": "M1497", "original": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?", "negated": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability not be an intervening molecular cloud?" }, { "id": "M4633", "original": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", "negated": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be higher than in 2019?" }, { "id": "M5832", "original": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "negated": "Will China not land the next person on the Moon?" }, { "id": "M446", "original": "Will Donald Trump's tax returns become public information during his current term as president?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump's tax returns not become public information during his current term as president?" }, { "id": "M1638", "original": "This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?", "negated": "At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones never legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?" }, { "id": "M4952", "original": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", "negated": "Will Lebanon not come under French rule again before 2025?" }, { "id": "M1579", "original": "Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?", "negated": "Will China's GDP not exceed the United States' GDP in every year before 2041?" }, { "id": "M2512", "original": "This question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on this list or this list), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?", "negated": "This question asks: Will no event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on this list or this list), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?" }, { "id": "M1501", "original": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it not be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?" }, { "id": "M3431", "original": "Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?", "negated": "Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) not be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?" }, { "id": "M3870", "original": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", "negated": "Will there not turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?" }, { "id": "M3656", "original": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "negated": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model not be trained before 2026?" }, { "id": "M3359", "original": "Will there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?", "negated": "Will there not be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?" }, { "id": "M3689", "original": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", "negated": "Will Yang not get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?" }, { "id": "M2670", "original": "Thus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?", "negated": "Will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers not be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?" }, { "id": "M917", "original": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?", "negated": "Will a space elevator not successfully be built by 2100?" }, { "id": "M5632", "original": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "negated": "Will Republicans not control the US Senate after the 2022 election?" }, { "id": "M4892", "original": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?", "negated": "Will transformer derived architectures not be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?" }, { "id": "M6885", "original": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", "negated": "Will the Tennis not be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?" }, { "id": "M5587", "original": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", "negated": "Will no book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?" }, { "id": "G191", "original": "Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?", "negated": "Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them? Negate: What questions should we not ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?" }, { "id": "M4865", "original": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", "negated": "Will Charm Industrial not exist in 2030?" }, { "id": "M4429", "original": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?", "negated": "By 1 January 2067, will no medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?" }, { "id": "M260", "original": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: what will the Metaculus community predict about Brexit?", "negated": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: what will the Metaculus community predict about Brexit? (Negated)" }, { "id": "M6721", "original": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?" }, { "id": "M1662", "original": "This question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?", "negated": "Before January 1 2030, will fewer than 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?" }, { "id": "G108", "original": "Will Syria hold elections for its national government before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Syria not hold elections for its national government before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M4807", "original": "Will Harvard and MIT win their July 2020 lawsuit against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement?", "negated": "Will Harvard and MIT lose their July 2020 lawsuit against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement?" }, { "id": "M2762", "original": "by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?", "negated": "By 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module not be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?" }, { "id": "M3605", "original": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "negated": "Will Medicare for all not be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?" }, { "id": "M512", "original": "By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015?", "negated": "By end of 2025, will an AI system not achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015?" }, { "id": "M228", "original": "On a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?", "negated": "On a ten-year timescale, will there not be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?" }, { "id": "M3696", "original": "Is the Diamond Princess done as a cruise ship?", "negated": "The Diamond Princess is not done as a cruise ship." }, { "id": "M2729", "original": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", "negated": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project fail?" }, { "id": "M3125", "original": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "negated": "Will the United States ever not be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?" }, { "id": "M2611", "original": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", "negated": "Will synthetic biological weapons not infect 100 people by 2030?" }, { "id": "M4055", "original": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", "negated": "Will the first AGI not be based on deep learning?" }, { "id": "M2598", "original": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?", "negated": "Will Metaculus not release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?" }, { "id": "M6965", "original": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", "negated": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz not leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?" }, { "id": "G207", "original": "Open: Who will Donald Trump name as his vice presidential running mate?", "negated": "Open: Who will Donald Trump not name as his vice presidential running mate?" }, { "id": "M6810", "original": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", "negated": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs be closed on 2022-01-01?" }, { "id": "M5352", "original": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?", "negated": "Will Kamala Harris lose the 2024 US Presidential election?" }, { "id": "M5178", "original": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?", "negated": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap not be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?" }, { "id": "M915", "original": "What do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040?", "negated": "Will we not discover proton decay before 2040?" }, { "id": "M1477", "original": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?", "negated": "Will the world not have nuclear weapons through 2075?" }, { "id": "M3677", "original": "If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?", "negated": "If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates not win the nomination?" }, { "id": "G606", "original": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Iraq (IRQ) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset not record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Iraq (IRQ) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M6883", "original": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "negated": "Will Republicans not control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?" }, { "id": "C120", "original": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Li Keqiang not be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M1585", "original": "Given that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "Given that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by less than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "M6502", "original": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", "negated": "Will JavaScript not be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?" }, { "id": "M236", "original": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?", "negated": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem not be solved before 2028?" }, { "id": "M2750", "original": "Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?", "negated": "Will the outbreak not be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?" }, { "id": "M4924", "original": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?", "negated": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints not officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?" }, { "id": "G59", "original": "Open: What events do you foresee happening in the rest of 2015?", "negated": "Open: What events do you not foresee happening in the rest of 2015?" }, { "id": "M4923", "original": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?", "negated": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem not be solved by AI?" }, { "id": "M5252", "original": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, 2028, or 2032?", "negated": "Will AOC not be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, 2028, or 2032?" }, { "id": "G230", "original": "Open: What will be the consequences of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union?", "negated": "Open: What will be the consequences of the United Kingdom's vote to remain in the European Union?" }, { "id": "M2662", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?", "negated": "Will the UK not leave the EU without reaching any agreement?" }, { "id": "M5413", "original": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "negated": "Will the UK not have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?" }, { "id": "M6322", "original": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "negated": "Will Trump not gain at least 10M followers on another platform?" }, { "id": "M167", "original": "Will the Bulletin advance the clock to two or fewer minutes to midnight?", "negated": "Will the Bulletin not advance the clock to two or fewer minutes to midnight?" }, { "id": "M3109", "original": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?", "negated": "Will General Electric (GE) not file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?" }, { "id": "M2599", "original": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?", "negated": "Will none of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?" }, { "id": "M6434", "original": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "negated": "Will the United States Senate not vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?" }, { "id": "M6418", "original": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "negated": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve not achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?" }, { "id": "M5253", "original": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", "negated": "Will Iran not possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6966", "original": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon by 2027?", "negated": "Will SpaceX actually not put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon by 2027?" }, { "id": "M1459", "original": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", "negated": "By 2023, will there be no evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?" }, { "id": "M3648", "original": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", "negated": "By 2029 will no computer have passed the Turing Test?" }, { "id": "M5201", "original": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "negated": "Will Kamala Harris not be president before inauguration day 2025?" }, { "id": "M6475", "original": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "negated": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney not receive FDA approval before 2025?" }, { "id": "M919", "original": "Will there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet?", "negated": "Will there be less than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet?" }, { "id": "M2514", "original": "Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline less than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "M6179", "original": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", "negated": "Will the USA not enter a second civil war before 2031?" }, { "id": "M2671", "original": "Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?", "negated": "Will no mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?" }, { "id": "M1002", "original": "Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", "negated": "Will there be no progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?" }, { "id": "M4906", "original": "This question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?", "negated": "Will no announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?" }, { "id": "M1328", "original": "Will Bitcoin's estimated energy consumption fail to reach a value of at least 80 TWh/yr on some day within 2018?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin's estimated energy consumption reach a value of at least 80 TWh/yr on some day within 2018?" }, { "id": "M1651", "original": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?", "negated": "Will there be no breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?" }, { "id": "M6615", "original": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "negated": "Will Alcor not go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?" }, { "id": "M6356", "original": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", "negated": "Will AES-256 not be publicly broken by 2040?" }, { "id": "G132", "original": "Will China remove the HYSY 981 oil rig from disputed waters claimed by Vietnam before 1 April 2016?", "negated": "Will China not remove the HYSY 981 oil rig from disputed waters claimed by Vietnam before 1 April 2016?" }, { "id": "M5062", "original": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?", "negated": "Will Tucker Carlson not be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?" }, { "id": "M7041", "original": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "negated": "Will soybeans not be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?" }, { "id": "M4697", "original": "[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?", "negated": "Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it not include his full name?" }, { "id": "M4549", "original": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", "negated": "Will George Church not receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?" }, { "id": "M513", "original": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?", "negated": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system not be built inside of the United States?" }, { "id": "M1011", "original": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", "negated": "Will Roe v. Wade not be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?" }, { "id": "M568", "original": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", "negated": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia not become an independent state?" }, { "id": "M240", "original": "Will there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?", "negated": "Will there be fewer than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?" }, { "id": "M1332", "original": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "negated": "Will global malaria mortality rates not be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?" }, { "id": "M577", "original": "Will the total market capitalization of the Segwit2x side of the fork, in dollars, exceed the capitalization of the original side on Dec. 1?", "negated": "Will the total market capitalization of the Segwit2x side of the fork, in dollars, not exceed the capitalization of the original side on Dec. 1?" }, { "id": "M624", "original": "By the end of the book series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\", will the Others reach King's Landing?", "negated": "By the end of the book series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\", will the Others not reach King's Landing?" }, { "id": "M420", "original": "So, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227?", "negated": "Will there not be a Nova from KIC 9832227?" }, { "id": "M1663", "original": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", "negated": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be higher in 2023 than in 2018?" }, { "id": "M1634", "original": "At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?", "negated": "At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be less than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality decrease by at least 20%?" }, { "id": "M6330", "original": "Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?", "negated": "Will Donald J. Trump not run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?" }, { "id": "M6946", "original": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?", "negated": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in India before one happens in China?" }, { "id": "M808", "original": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?", "negated": "Will Europa not be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?" }, { "id": "M375", "original": "Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU before 2027?", "negated": "Will none of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU before 2027?" }, { "id": "M6359", "original": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?", "negated": "Will Jair Bolsonaro not be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?" }, { "id": "M1058", "original": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?", "negated": "Will humanity (essentially) not run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?" }, { "id": "M1618", "original": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", "negated": "Is the Zuma satellite not in orbit?" }, { "id": "M736", "original": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", "negated": "Will there not be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?" }, { "id": "M4121", "original": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", "negated": "Will Italy remain within the Eurozone before 2023?" }, { "id": "M4224", "original": "Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?", "negated": "Will none of Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?" }, { "id": "M6331", "original": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "negated": "Will Mike Pence not be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?" }, { "id": "M4759", "original": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", "negated": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency not pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?" }, { "id": "M4919", "original": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "negated": "At the end of 2025, will none of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?" }, { "id": "M1604", "original": "If a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "If a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by less than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "M242", "original": "Will there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035?" }, { "id": "M685", "original": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not get rid of the penny by 2025?" }, { "id": "M1621", "original": "Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?", "negated": "Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) not approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?" }, { "id": "M5768", "original": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?", "negated": "Will no executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?" }, { "id": "M6507", "original": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "negated": "Will a space-based interferometer not detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?" }, { "id": "M3593", "original": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", "negated": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or more, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?" }, { "id": "M3397", "original": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?", "negated": "Will all OECD country fail to achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?" }, { "id": "M3739", "original": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", "negated": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is not safe or does not have health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?" }, { "id": "M5886", "original": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", "negated": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Democrat?" }, { "id": "M7155", "original": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", "negated": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions not be halved by 2030?" }, { "id": "M5212", "original": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?", "negated": "Will no legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?" }, { "id": "M5265", "original": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "negated": "Will the CDC not adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?" }, { "id": "M1603", "original": "Question: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?", "negated": "Will Mohammed bin Salman not become the next king of Saudi Arabia?" }, { "id": "M7054", "original": "Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?", "negated": "Will no top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?" }, { "id": "M684", "original": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", "negated": "By 2025 will no one be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?" }, { "id": "M6616", "original": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "negated": "Will the Cryonics Institute not go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?" }, { "id": "M2534", "original": "Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?", "negated": "Will there not be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?" }, { "id": "M5824", "original": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "negated": "Will the UK government fail in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?" }, { "id": "M3843", "original": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?", "negated": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders not become the nominee?" }, { "id": "M3433", "original": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "negated": "Will no ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?" }, { "id": "G408", "original": "(Open) What questions about cyber security should GJ ask in 2017 and how should we ask them?", "negated": "(Open) What questions about cyber security should GJ not ask in 2017 and why?" }, { "id": "M6597", "original": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", "negated": "Will Amazon not accept Bitcoin before 2024?" }, { "id": "M2632", "original": "On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?", "negated": "On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be less than 400 million people?" }, { "id": "M1529", "original": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", "negated": "Will China not launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?" }, { "id": "M6944", "original": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", "negated": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will no state refuse to certify their election results?" }, { "id": "M5678", "original": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "negated": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel not retract his view that he wants to die by 75?" }, { "id": "M6102", "original": "Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?", "negated": "Will no anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?" }, { "id": "M349", "original": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not land people on Mars prior to 2030?" }, { "id": "M273", "original": "By 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?", "negated": "By 2025, will no more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?" }, { "id": "M578", "original": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "negated": "Will humans not go extinct by 2100?" }, { "id": "M4219", "original": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "negated": "Will large scale solar radiation management not be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?" }, { "id": "M4334", "original": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "negated": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play not result in a forced draw?" }, { "id": "M2803", "original": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?", "negated": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program not computable?" }, { "id": "M6438", "original": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "negated": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden not officially declare his campaign for re-election?" }, { "id": "M3460", "original": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", "negated": "Will there not be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?" }, { "id": "M579", "original": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?", "negated": "Will there be more AR headset sales than VR headset sales in 2025?" }, { "id": "M1433", "original": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?", "negated": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% higher than in 2015?" }, { "id": "M336", "original": "Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?", "negated": "Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions not follow the worst-case scenario, not reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?" }, { "id": "M5118", "original": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", "negated": "Will Robin Hanson lose a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?" }, { "id": "M6844", "original": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", "negated": "Will 3 or fewer Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?" }, { "id": "M5350", "original": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", "negated": "Will Erdogan not be re-elected President of Turkey?" }, { "id": "G229", "original": "Open: What did you learn from the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership?", "negated": "Open: What did you not learn from the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership?" }, { "id": "M4290", "original": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "negated": "Will NAD+ boosters not be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6827", "original": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", "negated": "Will we not observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?" }, { "id": "M4051", "original": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", "negated": "Will Alcor not offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?" }, { "id": "M6723", "original": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?" }, { "id": "M2666", "original": "Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?", "negated": "Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) ever drop below 1% by 2039?" }, { "id": "M573", "original": "will the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025?", "negated": "will the NAFTA treaty not be dissolved before the beginning of 2025?" }, { "id": "M7040", "original": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "negated": "Will wheat not be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?" }, { "id": "M1043", "original": "But will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?", "negated": "Will we not see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?" }, { "id": "M3112", "original": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "negated": "Will the Moon have a permanent population of 10,000 before Mars does?" }, { "id": "G513", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? ", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will there not exist an armed group from Ethiopia which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "M1468", "original": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "negated": "Will Xi Jinping not keep leading China past 2022?" }, { "id": "M3118", "original": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", "negated": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, not be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?" }, { "id": "M5174", "original": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "negated": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket not be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?" }, { "id": "M5344", "original": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?", "negated": "Will there not be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?" }, { "id": "M3742", "original": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?", "negated": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration not be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?" }, { "id": "G637", "original": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Burundi (BDI) that starts between 4 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Burundi (BDI) that starts between 4 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M6190", "original": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M5318", "original": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "negated": "Will the US NIH not recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?" }, { "id": "M6218", "original": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", "negated": "Will Washington D.C. not become a state before 2025-01-20?" }, { "id": "M4922", "original": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?", "negated": "Will there not be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?" }, { "id": "M4934", "original": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", "negated": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project not be successful?" }, { "id": "M2605", "original": "Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?", "negated": "Will no country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?" }, { "id": "M5712", "original": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?" }, { "id": "M6910", "original": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", "negated": "Will the 117th United States Senate not change the filibuster rules during its session?" }, { "id": "M2645", "original": "Will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?", "negated": "Will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 not surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?" }, { "id": "M2513", "original": "Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by less than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "M111", "original": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?", "negated": "Will there not be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?" }, { "id": "M414", "original": "Will mosquitoes that have been either genetically modified or infected with Wolbachia be released in the U.S. in 2017?", "negated": "Will mosquitoes that have been either genetically modified or infected with Wolbachia not be released in the U.S. in 2017?" }, { "id": "M6608", "original": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", "negated": "Will most dark matter not turn out to be primordial black holes?" }, { "id": "M3715", "original": "Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?", "negated": "Will two or fewer public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?" }, { "id": "M5423", "original": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", "negated": "Will Stripe not reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?" }, { "id": "M5777", "original": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?", "negated": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine not turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?" }, { "id": "G262", "original": "In the upcoming Hungarian referendum, will a majority vote \"No,\" thereby rejecting the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation in Hungary?", "negated": "In the upcoming Hungarian referendum, will a majority not vote \"No,\" thereby not rejecting the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation in Hungary?" }, { "id": "M4630", "original": "Will Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?", "negated": "Will Metaculus Inc. not launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?" }, { "id": "M6378", "original": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "negated": "Will there not be a major nuclear accident before 2030?" }, { "id": "M1536", "original": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?", "negated": "Will a third LIGO detector not be built in India by 2027?" }, { "id": "M5317", "original": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "negated": "Will the UK's NHS not recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?" }, { "id": "M2705", "original": "If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?", "negated": "If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom not experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?" }, { "id": "M3629", "original": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "negated": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact not reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?" }, { "id": "M1469", "original": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", "negated": "Will we not know what Dark Matter is before 2050?" }, { "id": "M5885", "original": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not personally set foot on the moon by 2030?" }, { "id": "M3620", "original": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", "negated": "Will China not recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?" }, { "id": "M4862", "original": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "negated": "Will Climeworks not exist in 2030?" }, { "id": "M3531", "original": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?", "negated": "Will the star Betelgeuse not be observed to go supernova before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7150", "original": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will be electric vehicles?", "negated": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will not be electric vehicles?" }, { "id": "M523", "original": "Will the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years?", "negated": "Will the Density Conjecture not be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years?" }, { "id": "M1444", "original": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", "negated": "Will no openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?" }, { "id": "M397", "original": "Will Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?", "negated": "Will Robots not win the Robocup challenge, not beating professional soccer players by 2050?" }, { "id": "M5427", "original": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", "negated": "Will the Russian government not introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?" }, { "id": "M5029", "original": "When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?", "negated": "When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to not leave?" }, { "id": "M5749", "original": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, not cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M4763", "original": "Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, not declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?" }, { "id": "M3519", "original": "Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?", "negated": "Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be less than one million before 2075-01-01?" }, { "id": "M281", "original": "In 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020?", "negated": "In 2025 will overall us meat production be higher than in 2020?" }, { "id": "M5170", "original": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", "negated": "Will Nord Stream 2 not be completed (before 2025)?" }, { "id": "M6702", "original": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "negated": "Will Northern Ireland not hold a reunification referendum before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3124", "original": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?", "negated": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths not exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?" }, { "id": "M614", "original": "Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?", "negated": "Will there not be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?" }, { "id": "M2616", "original": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", "negated": "Will no Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?" }, { "id": "M1321", "original": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?", "negated": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally wrong in his predictions?" }, { "id": "M445", "original": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?", "negated": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig fewer tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?" }, { "id": "M3631", "original": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", "negated": "Will the federal minimum wage not increase in the United States before 2025?" }, { "id": "M5463", "original": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", "negated": "Will NASA not return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?" }, { "id": "M4433", "original": "If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?", "negated": "If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system not be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?" }, { "id": "M401", "original": "Will the top entrant in the 2018 Winograd challenge score 75% or more?", "negated": "Will the top entrant in the 2018 Winograd challenge score less than 75%?" }, { "id": "M3657", "original": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "negated": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending not go down as a fraction of GDP?" }, { "id": "M1480", "original": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", "negated": "Will no intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?" }, { "id": "M5538", "original": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", "negated": "Will California not carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?" }, { "id": "M4409", "original": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "negated": "Will none of the first AGI claim to be conscious?" }, { "id": "M5255", "original": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "negated": "Will life on Venus not be confirmed before 2035?" }, { "id": "M285", "original": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?", "negated": "Will there be 1 million in-car augmented reality users in the US before there are 10 million autonomous cars?" }, { "id": "M6973", "original": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", "negated": "Will the NBA not raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?" }, { "id": "M4127", "original": "In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?", "negated": "In the United States presidential election of 2024, will no member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?" }, { "id": "M4628", "original": "Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?", "negated": "Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that did not appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?" }, { "id": "M6618", "original": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "negated": "Will starlink not conduct an IPO before 2030?" }, { "id": "M124", "original": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?", "negated": "Will the world population not increase every year for the next decade?" }, { "id": "M3330", "original": "Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?", "negated": "Will no person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?" }, { "id": "M5716", "original": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "negated": "Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be less than the amount consumed in 2015?" }, { "id": "M455", "original": "What is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died?", "negated": "What is the probability that the individual will not \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died?" }, { "id": "M5655", "original": "Will Trump flee the United States?", "negated": "Will Trump not flee the United States?" }, { "id": "M899", "original": "Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?", "negated": "Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth less than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?" }, { "id": "M1495", "original": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it not be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?" }, { "id": "M6197", "original": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", "negated": "Will Brazil not win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?" }, { "id": "M2711", "original": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?", "negated": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income not be introduced in any EU country before 2041?" }, { "id": "M1476", "original": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "negated": "Will NASA not land people on Mars prior to 2030?" }, { "id": "M495", "original": "Will a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?", "negated": "Will a code generation system not achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?" }, { "id": "G590", "original": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Somalia (SOM) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset not record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Somalia (SOM) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M7063", "original": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", "negated": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies not fall below $150M/year by 2030?" }, { "id": "M6476", "original": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster not be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?" }, { "id": "M2807", "original": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "negated": "Will the UK housing market not crash before July 2023?" }, { "id": "M957", "original": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?" }, { "id": "M7154", "original": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", "negated": "Will the US not forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?" }, { "id": "M3600", "original": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?", "negated": "Will Iowa not host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?" }, { "id": "M4524", "original": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?", "negated": "Will the US not conduct any nuclear test explosions before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3614", "original": "If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?", "negated": "If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders not be the nominee?" }, { "id": "M3608", "original": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "negated": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 not agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?" }, { "id": "M1044", "original": "Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive?", "negated": "Before the 21st century is out, will humanity not deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive?" }, { "id": "M2773", "original": "Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?", "negated": "Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage not become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?" }, { "id": "M590", "original": "Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?", "negated": "Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be lower than the one in 2017?" }, { "id": "M6838", "original": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", "negated": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show less than 50% not religious?" }, { "id": "M606", "original": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", "negated": "Will we not detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?" }, { "id": "M229", "original": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?", "negated": "Will contact lenses for augmented reality not be in use by innovators before 2026?" }, { "id": "M2788", "original": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "negated": "By 2025, will laws not be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?" }, { "id": "M1060", "original": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?", "negated": "Will NONE of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?" }, { "id": "M3812", "original": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "negated": "Will Valve not release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?" }, { "id": "M440", "original": "Will Angela Merkel be re-elected as Chancellor of Germany?", "negated": "Will Angela Merkel not be re-elected as Chancellor of Germany?" }, { "id": "M2628", "original": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019", "negated": "Will Impossible Burger meat not be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019?" }, { "id": "M6028", "original": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "negated": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science not be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?" }, { "id": "M1408", "original": "Does P = NP?", "negated": "Does P != NP?" }, { "id": "M1644", "original": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "negated": "Will no von Neumann probes be launched before 2050?" }, { "id": "M3238", "original": "Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?", "negated": "Will Turkey not continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, either being suspended, expelled, or voluntarily withdrawing during the intervening period?" }, { "id": "M4678", "original": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?", "negated": "Will no US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?" }, { "id": "M3821", "original": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", "negated": "Will the value of 1 bitcoin not fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?" }, { "id": "M5808", "original": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "negated": "Will no signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon?" }, { "id": "M3794", "original": "By the end of 2020 will Tesla release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?", "negated": "By the end of 2020 will Tesla not release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?" }, { "id": "M1394", "original": "Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to our question on human-machine intelligence parity at least triple within any two-month period before its close date?", "negated": "Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to our question on human-machine intelligence parity not triple within any two-month period before its close date?" }, { "id": "M1061", "original": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?", "negated": "Will there not be any 9 feet tall humans by 2075?" }, { "id": "M3216", "original": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", "negated": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Not Be Taken Seriously?" }, { "id": "M6369", "original": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "negated": "Will Scotland not hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?" }, { "id": "M3257", "original": "By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "negated": "By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter not temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?" }, { "id": "M1626", "original": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2050, will no human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?" }, { "id": "M3159", "original": "Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?", "negated": "Will The We Company, nor any parent company thereof, not file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?" }, { "id": "M6455", "original": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "negated": "Will the EU not have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?" }, { "id": "G607", "original": "Will China execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?", "negated": "Will China not execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?" }, { "id": "M607", "original": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?", "negated": "Will it cost more than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?" }, { "id": "M2783", "original": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?", "negated": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators not list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?" }, { "id": "M3778", "original": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?", "negated": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist not sustain adequate economic growth?" }, { "id": "M6558", "original": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "negated": "Will no functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?" }, { "id": "M1378", "original": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?", "negated": "Will Israel not be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?" }, { "id": "M3150", "original": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?", "negated": "Will any non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?" }, { "id": "M6889", "original": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", "negated": "Will Serena Williams not win another Tennis Grand Slam?" }, { "id": "M1373", "original": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", "negated": "Will no one run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?" }, { "id": "M2586", "original": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?", "negated": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there not be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?" }, { "id": "M7057", "original": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", "negated": "Will no 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?" }, { "id": "M6730", "original": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", "negated": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at less than $1 per coin on January 1, 2025?" }, { "id": "M6001", "original": "Will Martin Rees beat Steven Pinker on the bet of Longbets \"bioerror\" question?", "negated": "Will Steven Pinker beat Martin Rees on the bet of Longbets \"bioerror\" question?" }, { "id": "M351", "original": "Will a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025?", "negated": "Will no credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025?" }, { "id": "M3469", "original": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", "negated": "Will the United States not institute a military draft by 2025?" }, { "id": "M6980", "original": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", "negated": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it not be public to end users?" }, { "id": "M6984", "original": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", "negated": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Guatemala?" }, { "id": "M600", "original": "Will a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100?", "negated": "Will a sample of negative energy material not be created by the year 2100?" }, { "id": "C115", "original": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Xi Jinping not be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M3795", "original": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", "negated": "Will longevity escape velocity not follow the development of effective life extending therapies?" }, { "id": "M5635", "original": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "negated": "Will Facebook not block links to Bitchute before 2023?" }, { "id": "M686", "original": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", "negated": "Will no human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?" }, { "id": "M2823", "original": "By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?", "negated": "By the end of 2029, will there not have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?" }, { "id": "M980", "original": "Will Tesla become the world's largest motor vehicle producer in some calendar year prior to 2035?", "negated": "Will Tesla not become the world's largest motor vehicle producer in some calendar year prior to 2035?" }, { "id": "M3262", "original": "In the year ending on November 2nd, 2020, will the total worldwide non-governmental funding of AI & Automation social science research organisations exceed $100M in 2019 USD?", "negated": "In the year ending on November 2nd, 2020, will the total worldwide non-governmental funding of AI & Automation social science research organisations not exceed $100M in 2019 USD?" }, { "id": "M3385", "original": "Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?", "negated": "Will humanity not maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?" }, { "id": "M161", "original": "Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?", "negated": "Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball infinite?" }, { "id": "M3858", "original": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?", "negated": "Will the USD not be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?" }, { "id": "M1645", "original": "This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?", "negated": "Will no asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?" }, { "id": "M594", "original": "Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13?", "negated": "Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be less than 13?" }, { "id": "M5431", "original": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?", "negated": "Will the current European Commission not propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?" }, { "id": "M1629", "original": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before January 1, 2050?", "negated": "Will alien technosignatures not be detected before January 1, 2050?" }, { "id": "M6886", "original": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", "negated": "Will Djokovic not win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?" }, { "id": "G301", "original": "(Open) What key events will drive (or hinder) technological innovation in the automotive industry in 2017?", "negated": "(Open) What key events will hinder technological innovation in the automotive industry in 2017?" }, { "id": "M585", "original": "Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?", "negated": "Will there not be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?" }, { "id": "M6049", "original": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "negated": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 not be the US president-elect?" }, { "id": "M6603", "original": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", "negated": "Will the LVCC loop not overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?" }, { "id": "M2577", "original": "Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland not cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "M6948", "original": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", "negated": "Will lepton universality not be falsified before 2026?" }, { "id": "M7056", "original": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?", "negated": "Will McDonald's not be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?" }, { "id": "M3507", "original": "Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?", "negated": "Will EQRx not get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?" }, { "id": "M3117", "original": "will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?", "negated": "will the ThrustSSC's land speed record not be surpassed before 1 January 2025?" }, { "id": "M3419", "original": "Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?", "negated": "Will the US House of Representatives not vote to impeach the next president of the United States?" }, { "id": "M6047", "original": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?", "negated": "Will no prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?" }, { "id": "M5715", "original": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "negated": "Will driverless cars not be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?" }, { "id": "M3682", "original": "Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", "negated": "Before January 1, 2025, will two or fewer public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?" }, { "id": "M6806", "original": "Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?", "negated": "Before Janury 1 2035, will no human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?" }, { "id": "M5039", "original": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", "negated": "Will the Eurozone not collapse before 2030?" }, { "id": "M3244", "original": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?", "negated": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography not be published during his lifetime?" }, { "id": "M3683", "original": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?", "negated": "Will a general superintelligence be developed before an oracle superintelligence?" }, { "id": "M3409", "original": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?", "negated": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be greater than or equal to 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?" }, { "id": "M4229", "original": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "negated": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China not fall between 2010 and 2030?" }, { "id": "M7053", "original": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", "negated": "Will Brazil not continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?" }, { "id": "M4586", "original": "If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?", "negated": "If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base not be equal to the amount for cocaine?" }, { "id": "G220", "original": "Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?", "negated": "Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles? Negate: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?" }, { "id": "M940", "original": "Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?" }, { "id": "G1628", "original": "Before 1 October 2020, will there be a period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2020, will there be no period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?" }, { "id": "G1783", "original": "Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?", "negated": "Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will no country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?" }, { "id": "G346", "original": "Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017?", "negated": "Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities not dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017?" }, { "id": "M5434", "original": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?", "negated": "Will Gladys Berejiklian continue as Premier of NSW until 1 December 2020?" }, { "id": "G419", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will there not be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?" }, { "id": "M3650", "original": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?", "negated": "Will the CDC not issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?" }, { "id": "M457", "original": "Will the MegaBots vs Kuratas battle occur before 2019?", "negated": "Will the MegaBots vs Kuratas battle not occur before 2019?" }, { "id": "M5147", "original": "Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?", "negated": "Will California not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?" }, { "id": "C46", "original": "Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?", "negated": "Will neither China nor India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?" }, { "id": "G1856", "original": "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?", "negated": "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be lower in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?" }, { "id": "G1690", "original": "Will the closing price of Facebook stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?", "negated": "Will the closing price of Facebook stock be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?" }, { "id": "G56", "original": "Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?", "negated": "Will Winds of Winter not be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?" }, { "id": "M5361", "original": "By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?", "negated": "By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States not return to optimism?" }, { "id": "M206", "original": "By end of 2018, will a complaint be filed by an investor or potential investor in a tech company alleging that a (partially or fully) human-powered system was fraudulently portrayed as being a fully-autonomous computing system?", "negated": "By end of 2018, will no complaint be filed by an investor or potential investor in a tech company alleging that a (partially or fully) human-powered system was fraudulently portrayed as being a fully-autonomous computing system?" }, { "id": "G1004", "original": "In Air and Liquid Systems Corp. v. Devries, will the Supreme Court rule that Air and Liquid Systems Corp. can be held liable for negligence in exposing service members to asbestos?", "negated": "In Air and Liquid Systems Corp. v. Devries, will the Supreme Court rule that Air and Liquid Systems Corp. cannot be held liable for negligence in exposing service members to asbestos?" }, { "id": "M325", "original": "Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the presidential debates be less than 5 minutes?", "negated": "Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the presidential debates be more than 5 minutes?" }, { "id": "M385", "original": "Will the \"Project Blue\" campaign to kick-start a planet-imaging camera of Alpha Centauri reach its goal on Kickstarter?", "negated": "Will the \"Project Blue\" campaign to kick-start a planet-imaging camera of Alpha Centauri not reach its goal on Kickstarter?" }, { "id": "G681", "original": "In Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, will the Supreme Court rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding violates any of his First Amendment rights?", "negated": "In Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, will the Supreme Court rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding does not violate any of his First Amendment rights?" }, { "id": "G1632", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will Apple officially announce a ridesharing partnership with a major automaker?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will Apple not officially announce a ridesharing partnership with a major automaker?" }, { "id": "M534", "original": "Will ETH be above 75% of BTC's market value at some point between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30, inclusive?", "negated": "Will ETH not be above 75% of BTC's market value at some point between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30, inclusive?" }, { "id": "G928", "original": "Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?", "negated": "Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will no Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?" }, { "id": "G90", "original": "Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will neither Turkey nor Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "G429", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will China fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will China not fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan?" }, { "id": "M46", "original": "Will there be a car commercially-available in at least two US states with an MSRP of less than $75,000 and delivery date within 2018, that can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?", "negated": "Will there not be a car commercially-available in at least two US states with an MSRP of less than $75,000 and delivery date within 2018, that can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?" }, { "id": "M1672", "original": "before January 1 2020, will there be any single terrorist attack in the United States involving the deaths of at least 25 people, excluding those of the perpetrator(s) of the attack?", "negated": "before January 1 2020, will there be no single terrorist attack in the United States involving the deaths of at least 25 people, excluding those of the perpetrator(s) of the attack?" }, { "id": "M4896", "original": "Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?", "negated": "Will the 538 model not repeat its 2012 success and fail to assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?" }, { "id": "G17", "original": "Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?", "negated": "Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani not meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?" }, { "id": "G826", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe not engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G683", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Russia and Egypt sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will Russia and Egypt not sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal?" }, { "id": "M5158", "original": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", "negated": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse not be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?" }, { "id": "M3737", "original": "Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?", "negated": "Will no major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?" }, { "id": "G1170", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "G364", "original": "Will Facebook add warning labels to news stories before July 2017?", "negated": "Will Facebook not add warning labels to news stories before July 2017?" }, { "id": "G1243", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will Margaret Atwood's book \"The Testaments\" be #1 on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2019, will Margaret Atwood's book \"The Testaments\" be #1 on no weekly New York Times Best Sellers lists?" }, { "id": "M6643", "original": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "negated": "Will Apple not release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?" }, { "id": "M138", "original": "Wil the VIX index top 30 before March 15th, 2016?", "negated": "Will the VIX index not top 30 before March 15th, 2016?" }, { "id": "M4277", "original": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?", "negated": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on neither the 7-day period ending on May 16th nor the 7-day period ending on May 23?" }, { "id": "M5298", "original": "Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?", "negated": "Will Amy Coney Barrett not be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?" }, { "id": "M1354", "original": "Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet?" }, { "id": "G1607", "original": "Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea announce that it has a new head of state?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea not announce that it has a new head of state?" }, { "id": "M461", "original": "Will a randomized, controlled, double-blind trial of Marik's treatment begin before 2019?", "negated": "Will a randomized, controlled, double-blind trial of Marik's treatment not begin before 2019?" }, { "id": "G1097", "original": "In Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, will the Supreme Court rule that the Manhattan Neighborhood Network is a public forum for First Amendment purposes?", "negated": "In Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, will the Supreme Court not rule that the Manhattan Neighborhood Network is a public forum for First Amendment purposes?" }, { "id": "G357", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will a date not be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "G802", "original": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel?", "negated": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia not announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel?" }, { "id": "G1023", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M567", "original": "Will the new Amazon HQ be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area?", "negated": "Will the new Amazon HQ be hosted by a city with a population of > 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area?" }, { "id": "G937", "original": "Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Serbia and Kosovo not reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G1183", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G1049", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?", "negated": "By 1 October 2019, will the U.S. House of Representatives not pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?" }, { "id": "G345", "original": "Will the government of Colombia and the FARC renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017?", "negated": "Will the government of Colombia and the FARC not renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017?" }, { "id": "G514", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "M4559", "original": "Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?", "negated": "Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be male?" }, { "id": "M23", "original": "Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?", "negated": "Will a clinical trial not have begun by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?" }, { "id": "M3490", "original": "Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?", "negated": "Will facial recognition not be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?" }, { "id": "G906", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M705", "original": "Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?", "negated": "Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?" }, { "id": "G379", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?", "negated": "By 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration not grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?" }, { "id": "M7556", "original": "Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?", "negated": "Will the Yihetan Dam not collapse before September 1 2021?" }, { "id": "M6007", "original": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?", "negated": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca not start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?" }, { "id": "G919", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M33", "original": "Will Metaculus have over one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016?", "negated": "Will Metaculus have less than one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016?" }, { "id": "G1629", "original": "Will the unemployment rate for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) exceed 5.00% in 2020?", "negated": "Will the unemployment rate for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) not exceed 5.00% in 2020?" }, { "id": "M900", "original": "Will this outbreak be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola?", "negated": "Will this outbreak not be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola?" }, { "id": "G942", "original": "Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019?", "negated": "Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty not begin before 1 October 2019?" }, { "id": "G98", "original": "Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?", "negated": "Will Montenegro not become a NATO member in 2016?" }, { "id": "M197", "original": "Will Tesla take more than 100,000 pre-orders for the model 3 by the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will Tesla not take more than 100,000 pre-orders for the model 3 by the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "G597", "original": "Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2018?", "negated": "Will no disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission by 1 July 2018?" }, { "id": "G1619", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the European Union not delay and/or not relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?" }, { "id": "G1904", "original": "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?", "negated": "Will the Scottish National Party not win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?" }, { "id": "G428", "original": "Will Montenegro become a full NATO member before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Montenegro not become a full NATO member before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "G1497", "original": "Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó not be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M471", "original": "Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?", "negated": "Will the market cap of Ethereum not be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?" }, { "id": "M1608", "original": "Will the U.S. Mega Millions lottery draw on December 11th 2018 contain at least one prime number?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Mega Millions lottery draw on December 11th 2018 contain no prime numbers?" }, { "id": "M5825", "original": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in person?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not attend Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in person?" }, { "id": "M4403", "original": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?", "negated": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) not make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?" }, { "id": "G1024", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "M541", "original": "Will there be four or more stories about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings in the NY Times before October 15, 2017?", "negated": "Will there be less than four stories about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings in the NY Times before October 15, 2017?" }, { "id": "G42", "original": "Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?", "negated": "Will Russians not conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?" }, { "id": "G1516", "original": "Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion?", "negated": "Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship not be a first-time champion?" }, { "id": "G94", "original": "Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine not announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?" }, { "id": "G103", "original": "Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program not resume before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G1228", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G1831", "original": "Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?", "negated": "Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will no country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?" }, { "id": "G965", "original": "Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?", "negated": "Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) not win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?" }, { "id": "G1859", "original": "Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus not become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "G585", "original": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning the Democratic People's Republic of Korea between 7 September 2017 and 4 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the UN Security Council not adopt a resolution concerning the Democratic People's Republic of Korea between 7 September 2017 and 4 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G1564", "original": "Before 9 October 2020, will the music festival Coachella, which has been rescheduled for October 2020, be postponed or canceled?", "negated": "Before 9 October 2020, will the music festival Coachella, which has been rescheduled for October 2020, not be postponed or canceled?" }, { "id": "G1075", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "G1417", "original": "Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government not pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?" }, { "id": "M913", "original": "By the end of season 2, will it be revealed that the marble taken from the lab by Bernard contains the mind of Arnold?", "negated": "By the end of season 2, will it not be revealed that the marble taken from the lab by Bernard contains the mind of Arnold?" }, { "id": "G1011", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M3267", "original": "Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020 (i.e. from November 2nd, 2019 to November 2nd 2020)?", "negated": "Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide not exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020 (i.e. from November 2nd, 2019 to November 2nd 2020)?" }, { "id": "G1014", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "G201", "original": "Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016?", "negated": "Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, continue to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016?" }, { "id": "M5512", "original": "Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?", "negated": "Will AbstractSpyTreeBot not win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?" }, { "id": "G214", "original": "Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "M355", "original": "Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?", "negated": "Will there be no faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?" }, { "id": "M7150", "original": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will be electric vehicles?", "negated": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will not be electric vehicles?" }, { "id": "G198", "original": "Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?", "negated": "Will Iran not officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?" }, { "id": "M717", "original": "Will Zuckerberg in fact appear before either the US house or Senate prior to April 17?", "negated": "Will Zuckerberg in fact not appear before either the US house or Senate prior to April 17?" }, { "id": "G185", "original": "Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?", "negated": "Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be greater than $300 per kWh?" }, { "id": "M825", "original": "Is Westworld located on an island?", "negated": "Is Westworld not located on an island?" }, { "id": "M5034", "original": "Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a \"hidden website\" on the Tor Network during 2021?", "negated": "Will no high profile criminal investigation take down a \"hidden website\" on the Tor Network during 2021?" }, { "id": "M2982", "original": "Will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark at any time before May 1st, 12:00:01 a.m. GMT?", "negated": "Will no single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark at any time before May 1st, 12:00:01 a.m. GMT?" }, { "id": "G78", "original": "Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?", "negated": "Will the expanded Panama Canal not open to shipping before 15 May 2016?" }, { "id": "M463", "original": "By start of 2020, will an additional site be discovered in California, dated to prior to 50,000 years ago and indicating Hominid presence, with an analysis published in a peer-reviewed journal that cites this discovery as evidence for the Deméré paper?", "negated": "By start of 2020, will no additional sites be discovered in California, dated to prior to 50,000 years ago and indicating Hominid presence, with an analysis published in a peer-reviewed journal that cites this discovery as evidence for the Deméré paper?" }, { "id": "M484", "original": "Will the first commercial human spaceflight take place by September 2018?", "negated": "Will the first commercial human spaceflight not take place by September 2018?" }, { "id": "M308", "original": "Will Elon Musk finally reveal his blueprint for sending humans to Mars at the International Astronautical Congress in September 2016?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not reveal his blueprint for sending humans to Mars at the International Astronautical Congress in September 2016?" }, { "id": "G510", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M3256", "original": "By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?", "negated": "By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people not all be located in China?" }, { "id": "G409", "original": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will no NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M1404", "original": "Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will Amazon not announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "G1101", "original": "Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit become law before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit not become law before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G931", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will no NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?" }, { "id": "M5746", "original": "Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?", "negated": "Will the UK's second wave not reach 1000 deaths/day?" }, { "id": "G1240", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will Ricardo Rosselló cease to be the governor of Puerto Rico?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2019, will Ricardo Rosselló not cease to be the governor of Puerto Rico?" }, { "id": "M5151", "original": "Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?", "negated": "Will the NBA playoffs not finish as planned?" }, { "id": "G623", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "M4900", "original": "Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "negated": "Will Three Gorges Dam not collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?" }, { "id": "G44", "original": "Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?", "negated": "Will Roger Goodell not be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?" }, { "id": "G1352", "original": "For any month between and including October 2019 and December 2020, will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 2.0%?", "negated": "For every month between and including October 2019 and December 2020, will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone be below 2.0%?" }, { "id": "G279", "original": "Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement not be completed before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M6393", "original": "Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "negated": "Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not win Super Bowl LV?" }, { "id": "M1682", "original": "Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?", "negated": "Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) not reach space before 2021?" }, { "id": "G1642", "original": "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Nicolas Maduro continue to be president of Venezuela until 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "G282", "original": "Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "G370", "original": "Before 2018, will Russia and Cuba announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center?", "negated": "Before 2018, will Russia or Cuba not announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center?" }, { "id": "M1367", "original": "Will OpenAI Five win the majority of its DotA 2 matches at The International?", "negated": "Will OpenAI Five not win the majority of its DotA 2 matches at The International?" }, { "id": "M5598", "original": "Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?", "negated": "Will the UK government not change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?" }, { "id": "G256", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M3038", "original": "Will the President of Italy fail to name a new Prime Minister before the end of August 2019?", "negated": "Will the President of Italy name a new Prime Minister before the end of August 2019?" }, { "id": "M108", "original": "Will the trial be completed, and rule that Uber drivers have been misclassified as contractors?", "negated": "Will the trial be completed, and rule that Uber drivers have been correctly classified as contractors?" }, { "id": "G133", "original": "Will Google's AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016?", "negated": "Will Google's AlphaGo not beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016?" }, { "id": "M5202", "original": "Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "negated": "Will Biden not drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?" }, { "id": "M3488", "original": "Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?", "negated": "Will California not have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?" }, { "id": "G932", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will no change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term?" }, { "id": "G1225", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M4937", "original": "Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump not participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?" }, { "id": "M193", "original": "Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in \"select agent\" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?", "negated": "Will no fatalities per year due to accidental infections in \"select agent\" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?" }, { "id": "G819", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?" }, { "id": "M478", "original": "Will Rentberry still be in operation with its current business model in 2019?", "negated": "Will Rentberry no longer be in operation with its current business model in 2019?" }, { "id": "M2712", "original": "Will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?", "negated": "Will OpenAI not win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?" }, { "id": "G1710", "original": "Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces?", "negated": "Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will no lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces?" }, { "id": "M344", "original": "Will the top AI score in the 2017 Angry Birds Man vs Machine Challenge outscore the top human?", "negated": "Will the top AI score in the 2017 Angry Birds Man vs Machine Challenge not outscore the top human?" }, { "id": "M1095", "original": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating not decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit?" }, { "id": "M4807", "original": "Will Harvard and MIT win their July 2020 lawsuit against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement?", "negated": "Will Harvard or MIT lose their July 2020 lawsuit against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement?" }, { "id": "G646", "original": "Before 27 December 2017, will Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia issue sharia-compliant government bonds?", "negated": "By 27 December 2017, will neither Algeria, Morocco, nor Tunisia have issued sharia-compliant government bonds?" }, { "id": "G1169", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M2793", "original": "Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?", "negated": "Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be over by February 2020?" }, { "id": "M1050", "original": "Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power?", "negated": "Will the IBM's Summit fail to remain the top dog in supercomputing power?" }, { "id": "M2565", "original": "Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?", "negated": "Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France not decline?" }, { "id": "M290", "original": "Will a clinical trial be entered into the US database with a start date prior to 1/1/2018, to test the use of varespladib and/or varespladib methyl as snake venom antidotes in humans?", "negated": "Will no clinical trial be entered into the US database with a start date prior to 1/1/2018, to test the use of varespladib and/or varespladib methyl as snake venom antidotes in humans?" }, { "id": "M2705", "original": "If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?", "negated": "If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom not experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?" }, { "id": "M3252", "original": "Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?", "negated": "Will the Brexit Party not win any seats at the next UK General Election?" }, { "id": "M5409", "original": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "negated": "Will fewer than three United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1545", "original": "Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX not launch its first crewed mission into orbit?" }, { "id": "M3497", "original": "Will all further attempts to reestablish communications with ASTERIA prior to 2020-03-31 fail?", "negated": "Will any further attempts to reestablish communications with ASTERIA prior to 2020-03-31 succeed?" }, { "id": "M3029", "original": "Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?", "negated": "Will less than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?" }, { "id": "M399", "original": "Will Airbus successfully flight-test a prototype airborne taxi in 2017?", "negated": "Will Airbus not successfully flight-test a prototype airborne taxi in 2017?" }, { "id": "G208", "original": "Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?", "negated": "Will no member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?" }, { "id": "M267", "original": "Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?", "negated": "Will the UK not submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?" }, { "id": "M5686", "original": "Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?", "negated": "Will Trump not attempt to pardon a member of his family?" }, { "id": "G1423", "original": "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 June 2020?", "negated": "Will Nicolas Maduro continue to be president of Venezuela until 1 June 2020?" }, { "id": "G669", "original": "Will Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in meet before 1 November 2018?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in not meet before 1 November 2018?" }, { "id": "G194", "original": "Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?", "negated": "Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections not be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?" }, { "id": "G1658", "original": "Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) not become law before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M3495", "original": "Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?", "negated": "Will Whole Woman's Health not be overturned in 2020?" }, { "id": "M446", "original": "Will Donald Trump's tax returns become public information during his current term as president?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump's tax returns not become public information during his current term as president?" }, { "id": "M588", "original": "Will there be a significant upsurge in large earthquakes predicted for 2018?", "negated": "Will there be no significant upsurge in large earthquakes predicted for 2018?" }, { "id": "G1300", "original": "In Zarda v. Altitude Express, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” encompasses discrimination based on an individual's sexual orientation?", "negated": "In Zarda v. Altitude Express, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” does not encompass discrimination based on an individual's sexual orientation?" }, { "id": "M5747", "original": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "negated": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter not temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?" }, { "id": "G803", "original": "In United States v. Microsoft Corp, will the Supreme Court rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States?", "negated": "In United States v. Microsoft Corp, will the Supreme Court not rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States?" }, { "id": "G1746", "original": "Will California voters approve Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)?", "negated": "Will California voters reject Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)?" }, { "id": "C60", "original": "Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?", "negated": "Will no private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?" }, { "id": "M51", "original": "Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2016?", "negated": "Will no magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2016?" }, { "id": "M1658", "original": "If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019, as planned, will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar?", "negated": "If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019, as planned, will there not be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar?" }, { "id": "M451", "original": "Will there be a Game of Thrones episode airing in 2017, in which Jon Snow bends the knee to Daenerys Targaryen?", "negated": "Will there be no Game of Thrones episode airing in 2017, in which Jon Snow bends the knee to Daenerys Targaryen?" }, { "id": "M4775", "original": "Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "negated": "Will Richard Spencer not receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?" }, { "id": "M687", "original": "Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved by the end of 2018 or the end of Temer's presidency (whichever comes first)?", "negated": "Will Temer's Social Security Reform not be approved by the end of 2018 or the end of Temer's presidency (whichever comes first)?" }, { "id": "G1184", "original": "On 24 May 2019, will the FTSE 100 Index closing value be higher than it was on 4 April 2019?", "negated": "On 24 May 2019, will the FTSE 100 Index closing value be lower than it was on 4 April 2019?" }, { "id": "M288", "original": "By start of 2019, will a credible media report emerge that a case of TR4 has been detected in Latin America?", "negated": "By start of 2019, will no credible media report emerge that a case of TR4 has been detected in Latin America?" }, { "id": "G484", "original": "Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment?", "negated": "Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will less than two states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment?" }, { "id": "M4801", "original": "Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?", "negated": "Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a Covid-19 pathogen?" }, { "id": "M3734", "original": "Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?", "negated": "Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard not remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?" }, { "id": "M515", "original": "Will Paul Manafort be charged with any crime by October 31, 2017?", "negated": "Will Paul Manafort not be charged with any crime by October 31, 2017?" }, { "id": "M6492", "original": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?", "negated": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine not be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?" }, { "id": "G564", "original": "Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?" }, { "id": "G216", "original": "Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?", "negated": "Will no Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?" }, { "id": "M646", "original": "Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?", "negated": "Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch not take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?" }, { "id": "G1334", "original": "Between 4 October 2019 and 1 April 2020, will legislation in a U.S. state allowing college athletes to receive financial compensation for their names, images, and/or likenesses become law?", "negated": "Between 4 October 2019 and 1 April 2020, will legislation in a U.S. state allowing college athletes to receive financial compensation for their names, images, and/or likenesses not become law?" }, { "id": "M5685", "original": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not attempt to pardon himself?" }, { "id": "M350", "original": "How likely is it for the Grand Prize winning team of the $5M to win also the NOAA Bonus Prize?", "negated": "How likely is it for the Grand Prize winning team of the $5M to not also win the NOAA Bonus Prize?" }, { "id": "G5", "original": "Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States not be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "G1179", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "M10603", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 750 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G200", "original": "Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Saudi Arabia not list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "G1033", "original": "Before 1 March 2019, will the U.S. impose Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi?", "negated": "Before 1 March 2019, will the U.S. not impose Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi?" }, { "id": "M156", "original": "Will one of the top 25 news outlets by media traffic publish a story by June 1st, 2019 reporting that the Minuteman III ICBMs will be replaced with a new model of ICBM that is either (a) mobilized or (b) not silo-based?", "negated": "Will none of the top 25 news outlets by media traffic publish a story by June 1st, 2019 reporting that the Minuteman III ICBMs will be replaced with a new model of ICBM that is either (a) mobilized or (b) not silo-based?" }, { "id": "G361", "original": "Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?", "negated": "Will the Philippines not participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?" }, { "id": "M1381", "original": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not enter a recession by July 1, 2021?" }, { "id": "G1652", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?" }, { "id": "G100", "original": "Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?", "negated": "Will India not win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?" }, { "id": "G982", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "G1295", "original": "Before 31 December 2019, will a Model 3 produced in Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory 3 be delivered to a customer?", "negated": "By 31 December 2019, will no Model 3 produced in Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory 3 be delivered to a customer?" }, { "id": "G405", "original": "Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?", "negated": "Will a border adjustment tax not be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?" }, { "id": "C17", "original": "Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?", "negated": "Will neither China nor the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?" }, { "id": "G838", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M5438", "original": "Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?", "negated": "Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States not exceed 12 million?" }, { "id": "M142", "original": "Will there be a credible media report or Facebook official announcement that Facebook has flight-tested one of these drones prior to May 31, 2016?", "negated": "Will there not be a credible media report or Facebook official announcement that Facebook has flight-tested one of these drones prior to May 31, 2016?" }, { "id": "G1056", "original": "Before 1 August 2019, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?", "negated": "Before 1 August 2019, will Facebook not announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?" }, { "id": "M3894", "original": "Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?", "negated": "Will no US civilian be intentionally shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?" }, { "id": "M1653", "original": "Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas not be used successfully in any mammal?" }, { "id": "G1222", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M750", "original": "Will a US-led military nuclear first-strike occur in N. Korea by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will a US-led military nuclear first-strike not occur in N. Korea by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M5", "original": "Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?", "negated": "Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks not announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?" }, { "id": "M177", "original": "By January 1st, 2017, will the CDC report Zika virus to be the known (or with words which capture a high degree of certainty) direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?", "negated": "By January 1st, 2017, will the CDC not report Zika virus to be the known (or with words which capture a high degree of certainty) direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?" }, { "id": "M1614", "original": "Before August 1st 2019, will there exist an establishment in the United States, legal and open to the public, that advertises and offers a service of renting out sex dolls for use on its premises?", "negated": "Before August 1st 2019, will there not exist an establishment in the United States, legal and open to the public, that advertises and offers a service of renting out sex dolls for use on its premises?" }, { "id": "M4816", "original": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", "negated": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of any murder charges?" }, { "id": "M112", "original": "Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?", "negated": "Will Google's AlphaGo not beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?" }, { "id": "M165", "original": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful?", "negated": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be unsuccessful?" }, { "id": "G1409", "original": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC's previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional?", "negated": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC's previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is constitutional?" }, { "id": "M302", "original": "Will Kurzweil's Google team release Danielle or another chatbot by the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will Kurzweil's Google team not release Danielle or another chatbot by the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "G232", "original": "Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?", "negated": "Will neither Mir Hossein Mousavi nor Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?" }, { "id": "G111", "original": "Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?", "negated": "Will California not extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?" }, { "id": "M889", "original": "Will Tesla file for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2020?", "negated": "Will Tesla not file for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2020?" }, { "id": "M268", "original": "Will there be \"The Machine\" (a HP technology, consisting of memristor chips and optical communications inside the computer) based computer for personal use below $2000 in 2018 year?", "negated": "Will there not be \"The Machine\" (a HP technology, consisting of memristor chips and optical communications inside the computer) based computer for personal use below $2000 in 2018 year?" }, { "id": "M5343", "original": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "negated": "Will President Trump not be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?" }, { "id": "G391", "original": "Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?", "negated": "Will Angela Merkel not be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?" }, { "id": "G469", "original": "Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017?", "negated": "Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017?" }, { "id": "M2931", "original": "Will Election Betting Odds report a higher than 60.0% chance of Trump winning the US presidency in 2020 for any 1 hour period before 23:59 November 30, 2019?", "negated": "Will Election Betting Odds not report a higher than 60.0% chance of Trump winning the US presidency in 2020 for any 1 hour period before 23:59 November 30, 2019?" }, { "id": "M2809", "original": "Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?", "negated": "Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš not experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?" }, { "id": "M5138", "original": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "negated": "Will the World Series of Poker not return to a live in-person format in 2021?" }, { "id": "M225", "original": "Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2016?", "negated": "Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet not reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2016?" }, { "id": "M1313", "original": "Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?", "negated": "Will Daenerys Targaryen not die in season eight of Game of Thrones?" }, { "id": "M1556", "original": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?", "negated": "Will there be no extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?" }, { "id": "M466", "original": "Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not be president of the US in 2019?" }, { "id": "M509", "original": "Will North Korea attack another country, causing greater than one hundred fatalities in a single day before the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will North Korea not attack another country, causing greater than one hundred fatalities in a single day before the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "G35", "original": "Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?", "negated": "Will Jurassic World (2015) fail to pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M536", "original": "Will the Smith & Crown index of cryptocurrency market on November 15, 2017 be lower than the index on September 15, 2017?", "negated": "Will the Smith & Crown index of cryptocurrency market on November 15, 2017 be no lower than the index on September 15, 2017?" }, { "id": "G448", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M962", "original": "Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?" }, { "id": "M516", "original": "Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2018 not be the warmest year on record?" }, { "id": "G86", "original": "Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?", "negated": "Will China not conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?" }, { "id": "G983", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M3285", "original": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in mice or rats (i.e. in excess of endogenous regeneration)?", "negated": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy not induce excess structural regeneration of digits in mice or rats (i.e. in excess of endogenous regeneration)?" }, { "id": "G1224", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G467", "original": "Before 1 August 2017, will the US president sign legislation that eliminates or caps the tax exemption on municipal bond interest?", "negated": "Before 1 August 2017, will the US president not sign legislation that eliminates or caps the tax exemption on municipal bond interest?" }, { "id": "M3748", "original": "Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas in any country other than Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "negated": "Will Airbnb services not be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas in any country other than Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?" }, { "id": "G180", "original": "Will a candidate included on the \"List of Hope\" or the \"People's Expert's List\" be elected as the next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts?", "negated": "Will a candidate not included on the \"List of Hope\" or the \"People's Expert's List\" be elected as the next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts?" }, { "id": "M4874", "original": "Will there be a partial or complete failure of the Three Gorges Dam before the end of September?", "negated": "Will there be neither a partial nor complete failure of the Three Gorges Dam before the end of September?" }, { "id": "G38", "original": "Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not win Iowa's Republican caucus?" }, { "id": "G1396", "original": "Will President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping sign a trade agreement before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping not sign a trade agreement before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G1055", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "M386", "original": "Will any of these recounts change the margin of victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by more than 0.1% of the total votes in that state?", "negated": "Will none of these recounts change the margin of victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by more than 0.1% of the total votes in that state?" }, { "id": "M1455", "original": "Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2019 not be the warmest year on record?" }, { "id": "M6551", "original": "Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?", "negated": "Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US not exceed 3M in 2021?" }, { "id": "M3140", "original": "Before January 1 2021, will the FOMC announce that the federal funds target rate is equal to or less than 0%, or, if a target range is given, will the lower bound of that target range be equal to or less than 0%?", "negated": "Before January 1 2021, will the FOMC not announce that the federal funds target rate is equal to or less than 0%, or, if a target range is given, will the lower bound of that target range be equal to or less than 0%?" }, { "id": "G877", "original": "In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?", "negated": "In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court not rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?" }, { "id": "M380", "original": "Will the total funding received by \"The Life You Can Save\" for 2016 double the amount from 2015?", "negated": "Will the total funding received by \"The Life You Can Save\" for 2016 be less than double the amount from 2015?" }, { "id": "M800", "original": "Will there be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "G479", "original": "Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?", "negated": "Will Moon Jae-in not win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?" }, { "id": "G52", "original": "Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?", "negated": "Will the IAEA not verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?" }, { "id": "G420", "original": "Will an unmanned aerial vehicle be used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017?", "negated": "Will no unmanned aerial vehicle be used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017?" }, { "id": "G392", "original": "Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA not approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases?" }, { "id": "C48", "original": "Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?", "negated": "Will the Chinese government not add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?" }, { "id": "G300", "original": "Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger not be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G264", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G977", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G981", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M932", "original": "Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?", "negated": "Will bitcoin neither boom nor bust (but just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?" }, { "id": "M221", "original": "Will mosquitos engineered to reduce the Aedes aegypti population be released in Puerto Rico by January 2017?", "negated": "Will mosquitos engineered to reduce the Aedes aegypti population not be released in Puerto Rico by January 2017?" }, { "id": "M2510", "original": "Will Joe Biden run for President in the 2020 election cycle?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not run for President in the 2020 election cycle?" }, { "id": "G921", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "G679", "original": "In Jesner v. Arab Bank, PLC, will the Supreme Court rule that aliens can sue a corporation under the Alien Tort Statute?", "negated": "In Jesner v. Arab Bank, PLC, will the Supreme Court rule that aliens cannot sue a corporation under the Alien Tort Statute?" }, { "id": "G1289", "original": "Will the United Kingdom (UK) leave the European Union (EU) on or before 31 October 2019?", "negated": "Will the United Kingdom (UK) remain in the European Union (EU) through 31 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M48", "original": "After these discussions, will the funding restriction of GoF research on Influenza and coronaviruses be lifted (or replaced by something considerably less restrictive) by November 1, 2016?", "negated": "After these discussions, will the funding restriction of GoF research on Influenza and coronaviruses not be lifted (or replaced by something considerably less restrictive) by November 1, 2016?" }, { "id": "G633", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M6422", "original": "Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?", "negated": "Will no one make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?" }, { "id": "G1830", "original": "Will the Washington Football Team (fka Washington Redskins) win five or more regular season games in the 2020 NFL season?", "negated": "Will the Washington Football Team (fka Washington Redskins) win fewer than five regular season games in the 2020 NFL season?" }, { "id": "G1709", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will it be announced that the fueling of the Vogtle nuclear reactor Unit 3 has begun?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will it not be announced that the fueling of the Vogtle nuclear reactor Unit 3 has begun?" }, { "id": "M2624", "original": "Will FBI's annual \"Crimes in the United States\" report indicate that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018?", "negated": "Will FBI's annual \"Crimes in the United States\" report not indicate that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018?" }, { "id": "G1843", "original": "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?", "negated": "Will Nicolas Maduro continue to be president of Venezuela until 1 April 2021?" }, { "id": "G1495", "original": "Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college?", "negated": "Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election not win the electoral college?" }, { "id": "G523", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M978", "original": "Will California be off of daylight savings time in 2020?", "negated": "Will California not be off of daylight savings time in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1489", "original": "Will Félix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020?", "negated": "Will Félix Tshisekedi continue to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo until 15 August 2020?" }, { "id": "M710", "original": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?", "negated": "Will no NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?" }, { "id": "M374", "original": "Will the Italians vote in favor of the proposed constitutional reform?", "negated": "Will the Italians vote against the proposed constitutional reform?" }, { "id": "M6293", "original": "Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?" }, { "id": "G1077", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "M170", "original": "Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?", "negated": "Will Lee Sedol not defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?" }, { "id": "M1003", "original": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?", "negated": "Will big ISPs not bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?" }, { "id": "M508", "original": "By November 6, 2018, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate \"all polls\" approval tracker?", "negated": "By November 6, 2018, will there not be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate \"all polls\" approval tracker?" }, { "id": "G1424", "original": "Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will either Moody's or S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating?", "negated": "Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will neither Moody's nor S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating?" }, { "id": "G1807", "original": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October and 31 December 2020, will there be fewer than 2,000 deaths of COVID-19 in the Brazil?", "negated": "Will there not exist any seven consecutive day period between 9 October and 31 December 2020, where there is more than 2,000 deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil?" }, { "id": "G456", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "M2631", "original": "By the end of 2020, will Tesla roll out autopilot features that are classified by SAE International as level 4 or 5 on their 2016 five point scale?", "negated": "By the end of 2020, will Tesla not roll out autopilot features that are classified by SAE International as level 4 or 5 on their 2016 five point scale?" }, { "id": "M14", "original": "Will NASA's K2 Mission detect a potentially habitable planet in 2015?", "negated": "Will NASA's K2 Mission not detect a potentially habitable planet in 2015?" }, { "id": "M5597", "original": "Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?", "negated": "Will UK schools not close before the Christmas Holiday?" }, { "id": "M3855", "original": "Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?", "negated": "Will there not be any single calendar month in 2020 with at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide?" }, { "id": "M898", "original": "Will the senate vote to keep in place net neutrality rules?", "negated": "Will the senate vote to not keep in place net neutrality rules?" }, { "id": "M22", "original": "Will the AI's major professional society take a position on \"killer robots\"?", "negated": "Will the AI's major professional society not take a position on \"killer robots\"?" }, { "id": "G63", "original": "Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?", "negated": "Will the US Justice Department not file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?" }, { "id": "M4627", "original": "In 2020, will we see a similar situation where law enforcement use live ammunition to intentionally shoot unarmed protesters?", "negated": "In 2020, will we not see a similar situation where law enforcement use live ammunition to intentionally shoot unarmed protesters?" }, { "id": "G1685", "original": "Will ten or more of the remaining games in the 2019-2020 NBA season be canceled?", "negated": "Will less than ten of the remaining games in the 2019-2020 NBA season be canceled?" }, { "id": "G373", "original": "Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017?", "negated": "Will Rex Tillerson not be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017?" }, { "id": "G14", "original": "Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?", "negated": "Will Africa not remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?" }, { "id": "G976", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M930", "original": "Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?", "negated": "Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election not have been elected to any other previous significant political office?" }, { "id": "M157", "original": "Will the (theoretical) existence of \"dark matter hair\" change the way we look for dark matter?", "negated": "Will the (theoretical) existence of \"dark matter hair\" not change the way we look for dark matter?" }, { "id": "G525", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P cut the State of Illinois' credit rating to junk status?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P not cut the State of Illinois' credit rating to junk status?" }, { "id": "M6442", "original": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?", "negated": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) not reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?" }, { "id": "M2939", "original": "Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?", "negated": "Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag not adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?" }, { "id": "M6371", "original": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", "negated": "Will UK festival Shambala not take place in August 2021?" }, { "id": "G221", "original": "Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?", "negated": "Before 2018, will Russia not officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?" }, { "id": "G117", "original": "Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Syria not hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M662", "original": "Will NASA's WFIRST still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections?", "negated": "Will NASA's WFIRST not still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections?" }, { "id": "G178", "original": "Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "G680", "original": "In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal?", "negated": "In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court not rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal?" }, { "id": "M49", "original": "In 2016, will a peer-reviewed paper appear in the literature that announces the detection of a non-transiting extrasolar planet that induces a radial velocity half amplitude for its parent star of less than one meter per second?", "negated": "In 2016, will there be no peer-reviewed papers in the literature that announce the detection of a non-transiting extrasolar planet that induces a radial velocity half amplitude for its parent star of less than one meter per second?" }, { "id": "G666", "original": "Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea launch an SLBM?", "negated": "Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea not launch an SLBM?" }, { "id": "M1673", "original": "Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?" }, { "id": "G1829", "original": "Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?" }, { "id": "M1000", "original": "Will at least one of Hayabusa2's rovers or lander touch down on Ryugu and send at least one picture from the surface?", "negated": "Will none of Hayabusa2's rovers or lander touch down on Ryugu and send at least one picture from the surface?" }, { "id": "M5437", "original": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "M1700", "original": "Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?", "negated": "Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial not become known in 2019?" }, { "id": "G1651", "original": "Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation curtailing or eliminating qualified immunity for public officials become law?", "negated": "Before 3 November 2020, will no federal legislation curtailing or eliminating qualified immunity for public officials become law?" }, { "id": "G883", "original": "Will Rachel Morrison win the 2018 Academy Award for Best Cinematography?", "negated": "Will Rachel Morrison not win the 2018 Academy Award for Best Cinematography?" }, { "id": "G1125", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will nuclear experts from the IAEA, the CTBTO, the UN, United States, or South Korea visit North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2019, will no nuclear experts from the IAEA, the CTBTO, the UN, United States, or South Korea visit North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility?" }, { "id": "M4414", "original": "Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out not to be his real name?" }, { "id": "G182", "original": "Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will Jacob Zuma not cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M1616", "original": "Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?", "negated": "Will Queen Elizabeth II not still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?" }, { "id": "G223", "original": "Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?" }, { "id": "G1233", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G12", "original": "Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will OPEC not announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "C21", "original": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?", "negated": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army not invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?" }, { "id": "M36", "original": "Are there physical systems with properties that are impossible in principle to predict?", "negated": "Are there no physical systems with properties that are impossible in principle to predict?" }, { "id": "G1277", "original": "Before 1 November 2019, will the British oil tanker Stena Impero be released from Iranian custody?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2019, will the British oil tanker Stena Impero not be released from Iranian custody?" }, { "id": "G1009", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M1511", "original": "Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?", "negated": "Will the EU Parliament election 2019 not be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?" }, { "id": "G828", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "G644", "original": "Before 27 December 2017, will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies vote to send Brazil's President Michel Temer to a Supreme Court or Senate trial?", "negated": "Before 27 December 2017, will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies not vote to send Brazil's President Michel Temer to a Supreme Court or Senate trial?" }, { "id": "M38", "original": "Will the IAU-sanctioned Exoplanet Names come into regular use?", "negated": "Will the IAU-sanctioned Exoplanet Names not come into regular use?" }, { "id": "M2625", "original": "The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?", "negated": "The United Kingdom will not leave the European Union in 2019?" }, { "id": "M159", "original": "Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?", "negated": "Will no prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?" }, { "id": "G1356", "original": "On 26 November 2019, will Chile be under a state of emergency?", "negated": "On 26 November 2019, will Chile not be under a state of emergency?" }, { "id": "G1514", "original": "Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?", "negated": "Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will no lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?" }, { "id": "M4220", "original": "Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?", "negated": "Will Wayne Hsiung not be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?" }, { "id": "G821", "original": "Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019?", "negated": "Will Bashar al-Assad remain president of Syria until 1 January 2019?" }, { "id": "M400", "original": "Will Amazon award a $1M \"Alexa Prize\" for a chatbot in 2017?", "negated": "Will Amazon not award a $1M \"Alexa Prize\" for a chatbot in 2017?" }, { "id": "G501", "original": "Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 July 2018?", "negated": "Will Jacob Zuma remain president of South Africa before 1 July 2018?" }, { "id": "G417", "original": "Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 not fall 20% or more in 2017?" }, { "id": "G764", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will South Korea file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will South Korea not file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels?" }, { "id": "M376", "original": "Will Norbert Hofer be elected president after the second round re-vote 4 December?", "negated": "Will Norbert Hofer not be elected president after the second round re-vote 4 December?" }, { "id": "M1698", "original": "Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?", "negated": "Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot not win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?" }, { "id": "M9", "original": "Will AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist?", "negated": "Will no AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist?" }, { "id": "M5411", "original": "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?", "negated": "Will Margaret Ferrier not resign as MP before April 2021?" }, { "id": "G61", "original": "Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?", "negated": "Will the US or its coalition partners not declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M237", "original": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017?", "negated": "Will the Democratic Party not control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017?" }, { "id": "M657", "original": "Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will India not land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "G640", "original": "Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Sierra Leone between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any riot/protest events in Sierra Leone between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M1652", "original": "Will the Federal Government of the United States be partially shut down for any period before 00:01 Eastern Time on 22 December 2018?", "negated": "Will the Federal Government of the United States not be partially shut down for any period before 00:01 Eastern Time on 22 December 2018?" }, { "id": "M243", "original": "By 2019 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report cases of a naturally-occurring qualitatively new airborne pathogen with a mortality rate of > 5%?", "negated": "By 2019 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper not report cases of a naturally-occurring qualitatively new airborne pathogen with a mortality rate of > 5%?" }, { "id": "G599", "original": "Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Mozambique in October 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any riot/protest events in Mozambique in October 2017?" }, { "id": "G15", "original": "Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?", "negated": "Will Bashar al-Assad continue to be President of Syria until 1 March 2017?" }, { "id": "M3859", "original": "Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?", "negated": "Will it not be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?" }, { "id": "G756", "original": "Will Great Britain announce a second referendum on Brexit by 31 December 2017?", "negated": "Will Great Britain not announce a second referendum on Brexit by 31 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M4280", "original": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?", "negated": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. not first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?" }, { "id": "G37", "original": "Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?" }, { "id": "M565", "original": "Will the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for the discovery of gravitational waves using the LIGO instrument?", "negated": "Will the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics not be awarded for the discovery of gravitational waves using the LIGO instrument?" }, { "id": "G1336", "original": "Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in three or more fatalities?", "negated": "Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in fewer than three fatalities?" }, { "id": "M3398", "original": "By beginning of 2021, will no independent group publish or post to the arxiv a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?", "negated": "By beginning of 2021, will an independent group publish or post to the arxiv a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?" }, { "id": "M381", "original": "Will commerically-available automated speech exceed human level in 2017?", "negated": "Will commerically-available automated speech not match or exceed human level in 2017?" }, { "id": "M4703", "original": "Will Trump's Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?", "negated": "Will Trump's Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church not result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?" }, { "id": "G1039", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President not sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?" }, { "id": "M2522", "original": "Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?", "negated": "Are SSRIs Self-Rated equal or less effective for Depression Than Anxiety?" }, { "id": "G382", "original": "Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?", "negated": "Will Geert Wilders not become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?" }, { "id": "G486", "original": "Will the Taliban take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018?", "negated": "Will the Taliban not take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018?" }, { "id": "M4650", "original": "Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?", "negated": "Will Republicans not win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?" }, { "id": "M272", "original": "Will the following dates spell trouble, (1) between August 26 and August 30, 2016; (2) September 26, 2016; (3) October 20, 2016, for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets?", "negated": "Will the following dates not spell trouble, (1) between August 26 and August 30, 2016; (2) September 26, 2016; (3) October 20, 2016, for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets?" }, { "id": "M2975", "original": "During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for \"Hong Kong protest\" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?", "negated": "During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for \"Hong Kong protest\" not spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?" }, { "id": "G1502", "original": "Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M2628", "original": "Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019?", "negated": "Impossible Burger meat will not be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019?" }, { "id": "M2961", "original": "Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?", "negated": "Will Brexit not happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?" }, { "id": "G537", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will Uber, or any of its subsidiaries, agree to a settlement or be found liable for trade secrets violations in the case brought by Waymo in the Northern District of California?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will Uber, or any of its subsidiaries, neither agree to a settlement nor be found liable for trade secrets violations in the case brought by Waymo in the Northern District of California?" }, { "id": "G1181", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M1583", "original": "Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?", "negated": "Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement not be rejected?" }, { "id": "G1053", "original": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "M250", "original": "Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?", "negated": "Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly not obtain viable bioweapon sample?" }, { "id": "M366", "original": "Will China's debt accumulation lead to a crash in 2017?", "negated": "Will China's debt accumulation not lead to a crash in 2017?" }, { "id": "G445", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "G1860", "original": "Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?", "negated": "Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) not enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?" }, { "id": "M284", "original": "Will a decision be issued in the CRISPR/Cas9 patent interference case by the end of 2017 that overturns Zhang's 2014 patent?", "negated": "Will no decision be issued in the CRISPR/Cas9 patent interference case by the end of 2017 that overturns Zhang's 2014 patent?" }, { "id": "M3825", "original": "Will the University of Cambridge suspend its in-person classes for at least some of its full-time courses for the 2020 Easter term?", "negated": "Will the University of Cambridge not suspend its in-person classes for at least some of its full-time courses for the 2020 Easter term?" }, { "id": "M341", "original": "Will Metaculus add a meta discussion feature?", "negated": "Will Metaculus not add a meta discussion feature?" }, { "id": "G824", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "G95", "original": "Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?", "negated": "Will no member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?" }, { "id": "M200", "original": "Will this trend in renewable energy continue, such that 80% of the added U.S. electricity generation capacity in 2016 comes from solar and wind power?", "negated": "Will this trend in renewable energy not continue, such that 80% of the added U.S. electricity generation capacity in 2016 comes from solar and wind power?" }, { "id": "M394", "original": "Will a Rhinovirus vaccine enter clinical trials in 2017?", "negated": "Will no Rhinovirus vaccines enter clinical trials in 2017?" }, { "id": "G608", "original": "Will North Korea execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?", "negated": "Will North Korea not execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?" }, { "id": "M343", "original": "Will the German Government bail out Deutsche Bank?", "negated": "Will the German Government not bail out Deutsche Bank?" }, { "id": "M1", "original": "Will advanced LIGO announce discovery of gravitational waves by Jan. 31 2016?", "negated": "Will advanced LIGO not announce discovery of gravitational waves by Jan. 31 2016?" }, { "id": "M194", "original": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful?", "negated": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be unsuccessful?" }, { "id": "M1041", "original": "Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?", "negated": "Will Tesla not be profitable in Q3 2018?" }, { "id": "M168", "original": "By June 2017, will a US or NASA budget appropriation exist (making reference to the October 2015 report) for the (perhaps initial) design and/or development of a spacecraft whose chief mission is to provide early warning of space weather events?", "negated": "By June 2017, will no US or NASA budget appropriation exist (making reference to the October 2015 report) for the (perhaps initial) design and/or development of a spacecraft whose chief mission is to provide early warning of space weather events?" }, { "id": "G508", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G678", "original": "In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was constitutional?" }, { "id": "M561", "original": "Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase \"Artificial Intelligence\"?", "negated": "Will Trump not finish the year without mentioning the phrase \"Artificial Intelligence\"?" }, { "id": "G796", "original": "Will there be any single day in December 2017 during which 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel are killed?", "negated": "Will there be no single day in December 2017 during which 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel are killed?" }, { "id": "G215", "original": "Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "M4564", "original": "Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will no TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "G490", "original": "Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?", "negated": "Before 2018, will there not be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?" }, { "id": "G388", "original": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?", "negated": "Will no new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?" }, { "id": "M5766", "original": "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?", "negated": "Will Andrew Yang not run for mayor of New York in 2021?" }, { "id": "M321", "original": "Will the SunShot Initiative's goals of decreasing the price of solar power by 75% between 2010 and 2020 be met?", "negated": "Will the SunShot Initiative's goals of decreasing the price of solar power by 75% between 2010 and 2020 not be met?" }, { "id": "M499", "original": "Will the Photonic Fence prove its effectiveness?", "negated": "Will the Photonic Fence not prove its effectiveness?" }, { "id": "M10601", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1418", "original": "Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government not pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?" }, { "id": "G1234", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M564", "original": "Will there be another media-reported incident in which a website is revealed to be surreptitiously mining cryptocoins?", "negated": "Will there be no other media-reported incident in which a website is revealed to be surreptitiously mining cryptocoins?" }, { "id": "M563", "original": "Will a US-led military action occur in N. Korea by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will no US-led military action occur in N. Korea by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M223", "original": "Will the anomalous global surface temperature in 2020 be less than 1.0 °C above the 1951-1980 mean?", "negated": "Will the anomalous global surface temperature in 2020 be equal or greater than 1.0 °C above the 1951-1980 mean?" }, { "id": "M1531", "original": "Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?", "negated": "Will the INF treaty functionally not continue past 2025?" }, { "id": "M4776", "original": "Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "negated": "Will Charles Murray not receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?" }, { "id": "M3782", "original": "Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?", "negated": "Will New York City not close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?" }, { "id": "M3257", "original": "By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "negated": "By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter not temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?" }, { "id": "M3483", "original": "In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?", "negated": "In the year 2020, will any gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?" }, { "id": "M453", "original": "Will any US citizen be charged in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia?", "negated": "Will no US citizen be charged in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia?" }, { "id": "G1529", "original": "Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) be in effect as of 6 May 2020?", "negated": "Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) not be in effect as of 6 May 2020?" }, { "id": "M72", "original": "By February 1, 2016, will a major news source run an article reporting that the blast detected on January 6th is from a boosted fission nuclear weapon?", "negated": "By February 1, 2016, will no major news source run an article reporting that the blast detected on January 6th is from a boosted fission nuclear weapon?" }, { "id": "G1694", "original": "Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law?", "negated": "Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments not become law?" }, { "id": "M340", "original": "Will Disney successfully buy Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?", "negated": "Will Disney fail to buy Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?" }, { "id": "G682", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "negated": "By 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un continue to be supreme leader of North Korea?" }, { "id": "G498", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exceed 30?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) be equal to or not exceed 30?" }, { "id": "G694", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will Waymo launch a driverless transportation service open to the public?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will Waymo not launch a driverless transportation service open to the public?" }, { "id": "M6379", "original": "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?", "negated": "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) not reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?" }, { "id": "M3611", "original": "If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?", "negated": "If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he not maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?" }, { "id": "G516", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M1139", "original": "Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years?", "negated": "Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system not be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years?" }, { "id": "M3710", "original": "Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2020-05-17?", "negated": "Will one or no public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2020-05-17?" }, { "id": "G224", "original": "Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?", "negated": "Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M4563", "original": "Will the UK’s \"Christmas number 1\" in the year 2020 be an obvious joke/parody entry?", "negated": "Will the UK’s \"Christmas number 1\" in the year 2020 not be an obvious joke/parody entry?" }, { "id": "G825", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "G369", "original": "Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018?", "negated": "Will Poland not reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018?" }, { "id": "M4562", "original": "Will the artist who performs 2020's UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?", "negated": "Will the artist who performs 2020's UK Christmas #1 not be the winner of a reality television show?" }, { "id": "M3595", "original": "Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?", "negated": "Will no location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?" }, { "id": "M2603", "original": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?", "negated": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average not hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?" }, { "id": "M599", "original": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump Jr. not be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?" }, { "id": "M129", "original": "Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize be won by Feb 9th, 2017?", "negated": "Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize not be won by Feb 9th, 2017?" }, { "id": "M194", "original": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful?", "negated": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be unsuccessful?" }, { "id": "G1343", "original": "Before 1 July 2020, will federal legislation protecting financial institutions that serve legitimate marijuana businesses from federal criminal and civil enforcement become law?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2020, will federal legislation protecting financial institutions that serve legitimate marijuana businesses from federal criminal and civil enforcement not become law?" }, { "id": "M449", "original": "Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?", "negated": "Will Russia not expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?" }, { "id": "M1463", "original": "Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not tweet about QAnon before the end of October?" }, { "id": "G1809", "original": "Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?", "negated": "Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, not vote to choose a president of the United States?" }, { "id": "G1215", "original": "Before 22 August 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 22 August 2019, will there not be any lethal confrontations between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M1333", "original": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump Jr. not be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?" }, { "id": "G1094", "original": "Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?", "negated": "Will the United States not experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?" }, { "id": "M315", "original": "By March 30, 2017, will Bayer and Monsanto receive final regulatory approval for a merger?", "negated": "By March 30, 2017, will Bayer and Monsanto not receive final regulatory approval for a merger?" }, { "id": "M2667", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?", "negated": "Will the UK not leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?" }, { "id": "G899", "original": "In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act?", "negated": "In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court not rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act?" }, { "id": "M1336", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?", "negated": "Will the UK not leave the EU without reaching any agreement?" }, { "id": "M30", "original": "Will Google make a \"watershed\" announcement about quantum computing in early December?", "negated": "Will Google not make a \"watershed\" announcement about quantum computing in early December?" }, { "id": "M3489", "original": "Will global Global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?", "negated": "Will global Global carbon emissions in 2020 be equal or lower than they were in 2019?" }, { "id": "M903", "original": "By end of 2018, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?", "negated": "By end of 2018, will no published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?" }, { "id": "C75", "original": "Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?", "negated": "Will China not add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?" }, { "id": "G588", "original": "Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"South Sudan\" or \"Nigeria\" in its headline between 6 September 2017 and 25 October 2017?", "negated": "Will FEWS NET not publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"South Sudan\" or \"Nigeria\" in its headline between 6 September 2017 and 25 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M409", "original": "Do these papers represent a sustained resurgence in (the relatively small amount of) interest in MOND?", "negated": "Do these papers not represent a sustained resurgence in (the relatively small amount of) interest in MOND?" }, { "id": "G517", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "G1511", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union request the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a European Union-United Kingdom trade agreement?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union not request the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a European Union-United Kingdom trade agreement?" }, { "id": "G1627", "original": "Will phase 4 of the HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Solar Energy Park be operational before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will phase 4 of the HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Solar Energy Park not be operational before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M1049", "original": "Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "M672", "original": "Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?", "negated": "Will Democrats lose control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?" }, { "id": "M3198", "original": "Will Joe Biden be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for the President of the United States?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for the President of the United States?" }, { "id": "M5505", "original": "Will a major network call the election prematurely?", "negated": "Will no major network call the election prematurely?" }, { "id": "G1492", "original": "Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un not meet before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "G250", "original": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?", "negated": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan still be President of Turkey on 1 August 2017?" }, { "id": "M7208", "original": "Will Jeff Bezos undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will Jeff Bezos not undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "G1057", "original": "In Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair, will the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee's residency requirements for issuing liquor licenses are unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair, will the Supreme Court not rule that Tennessee's residency requirements for issuing liquor licenses are unconstitutional?" }, { "id": "M286", "original": "Will an oil, gas, or mining company employ hybrid airship transportation by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will no oil, gas, or mining company employ hybrid airship transportation by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "G414", "original": "Before 2018, will Tesla file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout?", "negated": "Before 2018, will Tesla not file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout?" }, { "id": "M3513", "original": "If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?", "negated": "If Trump loses the election, will he not contest the results?" }, { "id": "G482", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies not adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default?" }, { "id": "G1072", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M744", "original": "Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be any locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018?" }, { "id": "G1500", "original": "Will domestic sales of passenger vehicles in India be higher in April-June 2020 compared with April-June 2019?", "negated": "Will domestic sales of passenger vehicles in India be equal or higher in April-June 2020 compared with April-June 2019?" }, { "id": "M572", "original": "Will significant pieces of Tiangong 1 touch down on land?", "negated": "Will no significant pieces of Tiangong 1 touch down on land?" }, { "id": "M3030", "original": "Will Kirsten Gillibrand have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New York's primary election?", "negated": "Will Kirsten Gillibrand not have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New York's primary election?" }, { "id": "G972", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G1292", "original": "Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 15 November 2019, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M1580", "original": "Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 400 lives?", "negated": "Will this outbreak not be declared over by the WHO before it claims 400 lives?" }, { "id": "M562", "original": "Will a living thylacine be documented conclusively by 2020?", "negated": "Will a living thylacine not be documented conclusively by 2020?" }, { "id": "M4354", "original": "At 00:00 UTC on November 3 2020, will Joe Biden be the official nominee of the Democratic Party for the office of president of the United States?", "negated": "At 00:00 UTC on November 3 2020, will Joe Biden not be the official nominee of the Democratic Party for the office of president of the United States?" }, { "id": "M1483", "original": "Will the U.S. Senate vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh before Monday, October the 8th?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Senate not vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh before Monday, October the 8th?" }, { "id": "G173", "original": "Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea not announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?" }, { "id": "M636", "original": "Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?", "negated": "Will there not be a Metaculus ICO this year?" }, { "id": "G176", "original": "Will \"Captain America: Civil War\" gross more in its opening weekend in the US than \"Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice\" did?", "negated": "Will \"Captain America: Civil War\" gross less in its opening weekend in the US than \"Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice\" did?" }, { "id": "G1196", "original": "Before 1 November 2019, will Moody's downgrade The Boeing Company's long-term credit rating and/or change its outlook to negative?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2019, will Moody's not downgrade The Boeing Company's long-term credit rating and/or change its outlook to negative?" }, { "id": "M4910", "original": "Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?", "negated": "Will no state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?" }, { "id": "M3697", "original": "Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?", "negated": "Will no woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?" }, { "id": "G483", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council not pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M434", "original": "Will one of Nike's Breaking2 runners complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017?", "negated": "Will none of Nike's Breaking2 runners complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017?" }, { "id": "M4617", "original": "Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2020 not be the warmest year on record?" }, { "id": "M1386", "original": "Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?", "negated": "Will we see no evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?" }, { "id": "G206", "original": "Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate?" }, { "id": "M15", "original": "Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?", "negated": "Does Stephen Hawking's September paper not contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?" }, { "id": "M3035", "original": "Will Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Hawaii's primary election?", "negated": "Will Tulsi Gabbard not have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Hawaii's primary election?" }, { "id": "M1028", "original": "Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes?", "negated": "Will the Opportunity Mars rover fail to awaken after the dust storm passes?" }, { "id": "M410", "original": "How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community?", "negated": "How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data not be treated by the community?" }, { "id": "G84", "original": "Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?", "negated": "Will Turkey not impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?" }, { "id": "M666", "original": "Will this question, with its secret resolution criteria, resolve positive?", "negated": "Will this question, with its secret resolution criteria, resolve negative?" }, { "id": "G880", "original": "Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?", "negated": "Will Joe Arpaio not win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?" }, { "id": "G500", "original": "Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?", "negated": "Before 1 December 2017, will it not be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?" }, { "id": "M6372", "original": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "negated": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud fail to win a plurality of seats?" }, { "id": "G51", "original": "Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will no disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "C53", "original": "Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?", "negated": "Will the U.S. government neither cancel nor shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?" }, { "id": "M4741", "original": "Will Planet Nine be discovered by mid-2021?", "negated": "Will Planet Nine not be discovered by mid-2021?" }, { "id": "M4739", "original": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", "negated": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos not shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?" }, { "id": "G1301", "original": "In R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. EEOC, will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” encompasses discrimination based on transgender status?", "negated": "In R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. EEOC, will the Supreme Court not rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” encompasses discrimination based on transgender status?" }, { "id": "G1093", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will any EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will no other EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?" }, { "id": "M4784", "original": "Will James Lindsay (@ConceptualJames) receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "negated": "Will James Lindsay (@ConceptualJames) not receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?" }, { "id": "M1335", "original": "Will a Deepfake video, qualifying per Hwang's criteria, throw the electorate for a loop during the midterm elections?", "negated": "Will a Deepfake video, qualifying per Hwang's criteria, not throw the electorate for a loop during the midterm elections?" }, { "id": "G521", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M392", "original": "In the 2017, will a paper be published by a collaboration including at least one of these authors that presents > 5 evidence for deviations from standard GR based on LIGO observations?", "negated": "In the 2017, will no paper be published by a collaboration including at least one of these authors that presents > 5 evidence for deviations from standard GR based on LIGO observations?" }, { "id": "G1765", "original": "Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $5 billion in new direct financial assistance to the United States Postal Service (USPS) become law?", "negated": "Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $5 billion in new direct financial assistance to the United States Postal Service (USPS) not become law?" }, { "id": "M931", "original": "Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not face a significant primary challenge in 2020?" }, { "id": "G614", "original": "Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Angola in October 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any civilian fatalities in Angola in October 2017?" }, { "id": "G1357", "original": "Will Sebastián Piñera cease to be president of Chile before 1 February 2020?", "negated": "Will Sebastián Piñera continue to be president of Chile until 1 February 2020?" }, { "id": "M924", "original": "Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?", "negated": "Will China not execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?" }, { "id": "G371", "original": "Will the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 exceed those in the second quarter of 2016?", "negated": "Will the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 not exceed those in the second quarter of 2016?" }, { "id": "M5684", "original": "Will any states flip from the current projected winner?", "negated": "Will no states flip from the current projected winner?" }, { "id": "G515", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "M227", "original": "Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?", "negated": "Will no independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?" }, { "id": "M2791", "original": "Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?", "negated": "Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 not become law?" }, { "id": "G968", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G1015", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?" }, { "id": "G970", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M2794", "original": "By the end of 2019, will either the Norwegian or Japanese government make an official statement claiming that it is their belief that Iran-affiliated forces were responsible for any damage caused to at least one of the ships in the June Incident?", "negated": "By the end of 2019, will neither the Norwegian nor Japanese government make an official statement claiming that it is their belief that Iran-affiliated forces were responsible for any damage caused to at least one of the ships in the June Incident?" }, { "id": "G115", "original": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?", "negated": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) not be completed in 2016?" }, { "id": "M226", "original": "Will the AUMA be on the ballot in the November 2016 California election, and pass?", "negated": "Will the AUMA not be on the ballot in the November 2016 California election, or fail to pass?" }, { "id": "G28", "original": "Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?", "negated": "Will the IAEA not conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M239", "original": "Will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report that H5N1 or a similar influenza virus has become an efficient human-to-human transmitter (capable of being propagated through at least two epidemiological generations of affected humans) by mid-2019?", "negated": "Will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper not report that H5N1 or a similar influenza virus has become an efficient human-to-human transmitter (capable of being propagated through at least two epidemiological generations of affected humans) by mid-2019?" }, { "id": "G685", "original": "Will Mahmoud Abbas visit Gaza before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Mahmoud Abbas not visit Gaza before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M5979", "original": "Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?", "negated": "Will California Gov Gavin Newsom not have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?" }, { "id": "M553", "original": "Prior to October 15, 2017, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 25?", "negated": "Prior to October 15, 2017, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value equal to or below 25?" }, { "id": "M569", "original": "By 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?", "negated": "By 2021, will no chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?" }, { "id": "M3057", "original": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?", "negated": "Will the Chinese police or military not intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?" }, { "id": "G302", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will the US endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will the US not endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power?" }, { "id": "G1614", "original": "Will Paulo Guedes cease to be Brazil's Minister of the Economy before 1 December 2020?", "negated": "Will Paulo Guedes remain Brazil's Minister of the Economy until 1 December 2020?" }, { "id": "G166", "original": "In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's \"nine-dash line\" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?", "negated": "In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration not rule that China's \"nine-dash line\" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?" }, { "id": "G1209", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will Robert Mueller testify in person before Congress?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2019, will Robert Mueller not testify in person before Congress?" }, { "id": "M3268", "original": "Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?", "negated": "Will the US-China trade war have ended by November 2nd, 2020?" }, { "id": "M5181", "original": "Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?", "negated": "Will the CZU Lightning Complex not be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?" }, { "id": "G1630", "original": "Will there be 12 or more Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?", "negated": "Will there be 11 or fewer Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?" }, { "id": "G832", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "G1066", "original": "Will China's National People's Congress or its Standing Committee pass a property tax law before 1 October 2019?", "negated": "Will China's National People's Congress or its Standing Committee not pass a property tax law before 1 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M537", "original": "With there be another major cryptocurrency \"split\" in November 2017?", "negated": "With there be no major cryptocurrency \"splits\" in November 2017?" }, { "id": "G1083", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G1639", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?" }, { "id": "M3098", "original": "Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?", "negated": "Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses not win the 2020 Democratic nomination?" }, { "id": "M1387", "original": "Will a woman win the 2018 Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?", "negated": "Will a person that's not a woman win the 2018 Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?" }, { "id": "G6", "original": "Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will no trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "M619", "original": "Will Austin TX or Boston MA be chosen as the site for Amazon's HQ2?", "negated": "Will Austin TX or Boston MA not be chosen as the site for Amazon's HQ2?" }, { "id": "M1362", "original": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?" }, { "id": "M218", "original": "By the end of January 2017, will the NIH begin tests of a Zika vaccine on healthy volunteers?", "negated": "By the end of January 2017, will the NIH not begin tests of a Zika vaccine on healthy volunteers?" }, { "id": "G1227", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "M664", "original": "By 2021, will at least ten Starlink satellites have been launched and be in orbit?", "negated": "By 2021, will at most nine Starlink satellites have been launched and be in orbit?" }, { "id": "G1010", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M3482", "original": "Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will Netanyahu not remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "G507", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "G354", "original": "Will Canada legalise recreational marijuana nationally before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will Canada not legalise recreational marijuana nationally before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M5345", "original": "Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?", "negated": "Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution not be invoked before November 3rd?" }, { "id": "M5033", "original": "Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?", "negated": "Will Edward Snowden not receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?" }, { "id": "M230", "original": "Will the argument, made by Julian Gonzalez-Ayala and F. Angulo-Brown, for 3 spatial dimensions on rather general thermodynamic grounds prove to be influential?", "negated": "Will the argument, made by Julian Gonzalez-Ayala and F. Angulo-Brown, for 3 spatial dimensions on rather general thermodynamic grounds prove to not be influential?" }, { "id": "M3612", "original": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?" }, { "id": "M213", "original": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?", "negated": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders fail to be the Democratic Nominee?" }, { "id": "G917", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M6317", "original": "By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?", "negated": "By 2022, will the US Senate not confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?" }, { "id": "G1166", "original": "Will Kim Jong Un visit Seoul before 1 October 2019?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong Un not visit Seoul before 1 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M181", "original": "By January 1st, 2019, will a fleet of autonomous vehicles be used in a ridesharing or hailing-like service?", "negated": "By January 1st, 2019, will no fleet of autonomous vehicles be used in a ridesharing or hailing-like service?" }, { "id": "M5819", "original": "Will Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?", "negated": "Will Mathias Cormann not become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?" }, { "id": "G1401", "original": "Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?", "negated": "Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) not reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?" }, { "id": "M5503", "original": "Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?", "negated": "Will 538 perform equally or underperformThe Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?" }, { "id": "M4553", "original": "Will the first post from Instagram's official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?", "negated": "Will the first post from Instagram's official account @instagram after this question closes not be a photograph or video of an instagram user?" }, { "id": "G376", "original": "Will a U.S. state enact a soda tax in 2017?", "negated": "Will no U.S. state enact a soda tax in 2017?" }, { "id": "G1574", "original": "Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings?", "negated": "Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P not downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings?" }, { "id": "G1238", "original": "Before 5 August 2019, will the president submit to Congress a bill for implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?", "negated": "Before 5 August 2019, will the president not submit to Congress a bill for implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?" }, { "id": "G1086", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G882", "original": "Before 20 July 2018, will Audi sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?", "negated": "Before 20 July 2018, will Audi not sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?" }, { "id": "M13", "original": "In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?", "negated": "In the coming months, will no robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?" }, { "id": "M2580", "original": "Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?", "negated": "Will President Trump not meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?" }, { "id": "G830", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G1355", "original": "In Department of Homeland Security (DHS) v. Regents of the University of California, will the Supreme Court rule that the DHS's decision to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA) is lawful?", "negated": "In Department of Homeland Security (DHS) v. Regents of the University of California, will the Supreme Court not rule that the DHS's decision to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA) is lawful?" }, { "id": "G1782", "original": "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?", "negated": "Will no 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?" }, { "id": "G66", "original": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) not be completed before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "M277", "original": "Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017?", "negated": "Will the Pound be greater than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017?" }, { "id": "M465", "original": "Will the unidentified carcass turn out to be just a whale?", "negated": "Will the unidentified carcass turn out not to be just a whale?" }, { "id": "G1337", "original": "Before 15 March 2020, will the parliament of New Zealand pass a bill that would create a national gun register?", "negated": "Before 15 March 2020, will the parliament of New Zealand not pass a bill that would create a national gun register?" }, { "id": "M670", "original": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?", "negated": "Will Magnus Carlsen not retain his title of world chess champion this November?" }, { "id": "M222", "original": "Will there be CDC estimate that more than 1 million US citizens (including territories such as Puerto Rico) have been infected by Zika by the end of 2017?", "negated": "Will there be CDC estimate that less than 1 million US citizens (including territories such as Puerto Rico) have been infected by Zika by the end of 2017?" }, { "id": "M510", "original": "Will any US citizen be jailed in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia?", "negated": "Will no US citizen be jailed in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia?" }, { "id": "M621", "original": "During the span from February through December of 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which intelligent extraterrestrial agency is discussed as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?", "negated": "During the span from February through December of 2018, will the New York Times not publish a news story in which intelligent extraterrestrial agency is discussed as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?" }, { "id": "M2520", "original": "Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?", "negated": "More support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?" }, { "id": "C62", "original": "Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?", "negated": "Will Microsoft not announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?" }, { "id": "M1362", "original": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?" }, { "id": "G509", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M1685", "original": "If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?", "negated": "If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial not end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?" }, { "id": "G1021", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G1847", "original": "Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?", "negated": "Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline be equal or not fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?" }, { "id": "G79", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin not attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?" }, { "id": "M2", "original": "Will SpaceX successfully land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by February 28, 2016?", "negated": "Will SpaceX unsuccessfully land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by February 28, 2016?" }, { "id": "M1694", "original": "By the end of 2020, will a human head transplant operation be performed?", "negated": "By the end of 2020, will a human head transplant operation not be performed?" }, { "id": "G65", "original": "Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections?", "negated": "Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) not maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections?" }, { "id": "G1177", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "G1793", "original": "In its 2020 referendum, will Puerto Rico vote to become a state?", "negated": "In its 2020 referendum, will Puerto Rico not vote to become a state?" }, { "id": "M7", "original": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?", "negated": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome not fall below $500 by mid 2016?" }, { "id": "M5172", "original": "Will the recipient(s) of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?", "negated": "Will the recipient(s) of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics not work for a top cited scholastic institution?" }, { "id": "M145", "original": "Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?", "negated": "Will no (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?" }, { "id": "M977", "original": "Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?", "negated": "Will no one in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?" }, { "id": "M511", "original": "A jump in market volatility over the coming month?", "negated": "No jump in market volatility over the coming month?" }, { "id": "M407", "original": "Will this first evidence demonstrating direct perception of a single photon by the human eyes initiate more interest to perform similar testing in the near future?", "negated": "Will this first evidence demonstrating direct perception of a single photon by the human eyes not initiate more interest to perform similar testing in the near future?" }, { "id": "G1507", "original": "In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is constitutional?" }, { "id": "M436", "original": "Will Brexit negotiations be completed and ratified before the end of March 2019?", "negated": "Will Brexit negotiations not be completed and ratified before the end of March 2019?" }, { "id": "M71", "original": "Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?", "negated": "Will no successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?" }, { "id": "G795", "original": "Will the new Zimbabwean government offer opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai or ex-Finance Minister Tendai Biti a position in the post-coup government cabinet before 31 December 2017?", "negated": "Will the new Zimbabwean government not offer opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai or ex-Finance Minister Tendai Biti a position in the post-coup government cabinet before 31 December 2017?" }, { "id": "G1165", "original": "Will Hassan Rouhani cease to be president of Iran before 1 October 2019?", "negated": "Will Hassan Rouhani continue to be president of Iran before 1 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M327", "original": "Will Obama pardon Snowden?", "negated": "Will Obama not pardon Snowden?" }, { "id": "M3281", "original": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?", "negated": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems not be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?" }, { "id": "M3791", "original": "Will at least 33% of the US voting-age population cast a ballot for President in an election held on the 3rd of November 2020?", "negated": "Will no more than 33% of the US voting-age population cast a ballot for President in an election held on the 3rd of November 2020?" }, { "id": "G1175", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G971", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G130", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be any new episodes of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G1909", "original": "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?", "negated": "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma not physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?" }, { "id": "M4075", "original": "Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?", "negated": "Will no RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?" }, { "id": "M522", "original": "Will a meeting of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) already established by the UN begin formal meetings at some point in November 2017?", "negated": "Will no meeting of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) already established by the UN begin formal meetings at some point in November 2017?" }, { "id": "G245", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M3451", "original": "US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?", "negated": "Will the US not invade and attempt a regime change in Iran in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1837", "original": "Will Nancy Pelosi be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress?", "negated": "Will Nancy Pelosi not be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress?" }, { "id": "M654", "original": "Will the SEC release any set of public, formal rules governing initial coin offerings by October 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will the SEC not release any set of public, formal rules governing initial coin offerings by October 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "M395", "original": "By start of 2021, will there be a restaurant serving cultured meat?", "negated": "By start of 2021, will there not be any restaurants serving cultured meat?" }, { "id": "M309", "original": "Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?", "negated": "Will no small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?" }, { "id": "M1570", "original": "Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?", "negated": "Will Australia not elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?" }, { "id": "G1019", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G1119", "original": "Will Bristol-Myers Squibb Corp.'s acquisition of Celgene Corp. close before 1 October 2019?", "negated": "Will Bristol-Myers Squibb Corp.'s acquisition of Celgene Corp. not close before 1 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M4835", "original": "Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?", "negated": "Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee not publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?" }, { "id": "G277", "original": "Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?", "negated": "Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 not exceed $140 billion?" }, { "id": "M3263", "original": "By November 2nd, 2020, will 668 or fewer people be employed by DeepMind, according to LinkedIn search results?", "negated": "By November 2nd, 2020, will 669 or more people be employed by DeepMind, according to LinkedIn search results?" }, { "id": "M1509", "original": "Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?", "negated": "Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) not continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?" }, { "id": "G820", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2019, will no other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?" }, { "id": "G1168", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M1479", "original": "Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?", "negated": "Will there not be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?" }, { "id": "M4313", "original": "Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?", "negated": "Will no magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1074", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "G353", "original": "Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon not announce that he is running for president of South Korea?" }, { "id": "M246", "original": "Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?", "negated": "Pandemic series: how unlikely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?" }, { "id": "G1494", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will a date not be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "M4415", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will American Airlines, or any parent company thereof, file for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will American Airlines, or any parent company thereof, not file for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States?" }, { "id": "M3121", "original": "Will Oregon vote to legalize the medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?", "negated": "Will Oregon not vote to legalize the medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?" }, { "id": "G228", "original": "Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?", "negated": "Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban not participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?" }, { "id": "M481", "original": "Will Planet Nine be discovered by mid-2018?", "negated": "Will Planet Nine not be discovered by mid-2018?" }, { "id": "G85", "original": "Will Afghanistan's Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will Afghanistan's Parliament not confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "G291", "original": "Will China begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will China not begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G975", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "G219", "original": "Will Nissan sell more than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016?", "negated": "Will Nissan sell equal or less than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016?" }, { "id": "M3696", "original": "Is the Diamond Princess done as a cruise ship?", "negated": "Is the Diamond Princess not done as a cruise ship?" }, { "id": "M3496", "original": "When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time be later than two minutes to midnight?", "negated": "When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time not be later than two minutes to midnight?" }, { "id": "M2664", "original": "Will Mark Latham be a member of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party on the 1st of January 2021?", "negated": "Will Mark Latham not be a member of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party on the 1st of January 2021?" }, { "id": "G617", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M276", "original": "Will the total number of police shooting deaths in 2016 reach 1,000, surpassing 2015's total of 990 deaths?", "negated": "Will the total number of police shooting deaths in 2016 not reach 1,000, surpassing 2015's total of 990 deaths?" }, { "id": "M4733", "original": "Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "negated": "Will Stefan Molyneux not receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?" }, { "id": "M2537", "original": "Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will the UK's Conservative Government not fall before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "M198", "original": "Will Bigelow Aerospace's inflatable habitation module inflate, attach to the ISS, and be inhabitable?", "negated": "Will Bigelow Aerospace's inflatable habitation module not inflate, attach to the ISS, and be inhabitable?" }, { "id": "M3110", "original": "Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?", "negated": "Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back no picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?" }, { "id": "M483", "original": "50% hit rate for the Kepler optical planet detections?", "negated": "50% hit rate for the Kepler optical planet detections." }, { "id": "M5112", "original": "Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will Uber and Lyft both not be operating in California on June 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "G835", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "M2627", "original": "No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019?", "negated": "At least one Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at some point in 2019?" }, { "id": "G567", "original": "Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?", "negated": "Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?" }, { "id": "M613", "original": "Will the James Webb Telescope be launched prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?", "negated": "Will the James Webb Telescope not be launched prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?" }, { "id": "M734", "original": "Will the Dems start a new tradition and nominate a Gen Xer for President the next go around?", "negated": "Will the Dems not start a new tradition and nominate a Gen Xer for President the next go around?" }, { "id": "M32", "original": "Is Nefertiti's tomb adjacent to King Tut's?", "negated": "Is Nefertiti's tomb not adjacent to King Tut's?" }, { "id": "M519", "original": "By July 2018, will additional significant evidence emerge suggesting that our Sun experiences erg or larger flares on a time scale shorter than 1000 years?", "negated": "By July 2018, will no additional significant evidence emerge suggesting that our Sun experiences erg or larger flares on a time scale shorter than 1000 years?" }, { "id": "M639", "original": "Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* agree with the prediction of general relativity ?", "negated": "Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* disagree with the prediction of general relativity ?" }, { "id": "M5884", "original": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", "negated": "Will the Open Courts Act not become law?" }, { "id": "G162", "original": "Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?", "negated": "Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) not default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?" }, { "id": "G8", "original": "Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M475", "original": "Will flying taxis take off in the United States by 2021?", "negated": "Will flying taxis not take off in the United States by 2021?" }, { "id": "M256", "original": "By the end of 2018 will US federal funding go to 2 or more research projects performing GOF research of concern?", "negated": "By the end of 2018 will US federal funding go to fewer than 2 research projects performing GOF research of concern?" }, { "id": "G293", "original": "Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Thailand not hold general elections before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M189", "original": "Will this question resolve in the negative?", "negated": "Will this question not resolve in the negative?" }, { "id": "M5358", "original": "Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will no SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "M317", "original": "Will the DC federal court grant class certification for an ongoing lawsuit against the government for “charging excessive fees to access court records through PACER”?", "negated": "Will the DC federal court not grant class certification for an ongoing lawsuit against the government for “charging excessive fees to access court records through PACER”?" }, { "id": "M279", "original": "Will Tesla publish this plan \"this week\" meaning (generously) prior to midnight pacific time on Sunday July 16?", "negated": "Will Tesla not publish this plan \"this week\" meaning (generously) prior to midnight pacific time on Sunday July 16?" }, { "id": "M2938", "original": "Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?", "negated": "Will Oman not be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M651", "original": "Will, within the year 2018, a company that is part of the S&P 500 index close at a stock price that would make its market cap larger that 1 trillion US dollars?", "negated": "Will, within the year 2018, no company that is part of the S&P 500 index close at a stock price that would make its market cap larger that 1 trillion US dollars?" }, { "id": "G47", "original": "Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?", "negated": "Will Apple sell less than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?" }, { "id": "G1192", "original": "In France's elections for the European Parliament, will the National Rally list receive more votes than the La République En Marche list?", "negated": "In France's elections for the European Parliament, will the National Rally list receive equal or less votes than the La République En Marche list?" }, { "id": "G284", "original": "Before 2017, will Google announce that it will conduct public testing of its fully autonomous vehicles in a US city?", "negated": "Before 2017, will Google not announce that it will conduct public testing of its fully autonomous vehicles in a US city?" }, { "id": "M1611", "original": "Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is at the time a member of the European Union?", "negated": "Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest not be won by a country that is at the time a member of the European Union?" }, { "id": "M617", "original": "Will the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?", "negated": "Will the Metaculus predictions be more than 5% off the community prediction for this question?" }, { "id": "G258", "original": "Will Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) win her 30 August primary race?", "negated": "Will Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) lose her 30 August primary race?" }, { "id": "M592", "original": "Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?", "negated": "Will no additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?" }, { "id": "M6244", "original": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?", "negated": "Will there be no major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?" }, { "id": "G1007", "original": "In Weyerhaeuser Company v. US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), will the Supreme Court rule that the FWS erroneously applied the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to any private land in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana?", "negated": "In Weyerhaeuser Company v. US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), will the Supreme Court not rule that the FWS erroneously applied the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to any private land in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana?\n " }, { "id": "M6463", "original": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "negated": "Will U.S. military troops no longer be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?" }, { "id": "M31", "original": "Will this \"quantum cognition\" hypothesis be taken sufficiently seriously by the scientific community to investigate and test it?", "negated": "Will this \"quantum cognition\" hypothesis not be taken sufficiently seriously by the scientific community to investigate and test it?" }, { "id": "G436", "original": "Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?", "negated": "Will China not officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?" }, { "id": "G1089", "original": "Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Bashar al-Assad remain president of Syria until 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G257", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M5256", "original": "Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "negated": "Will Trump not drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?" }, { "id": "G530", "original": "Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance?", "negated": "Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump not sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance?" }, { "id": "M826", "original": "In Westworld, is Dolores modeled after a flesh-and-blood human being from outside the park?", "negated": "In Westworld, is Dolores not modeled after a flesh-and-blood human being from outside the park?" }, { "id": "G1020", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G190", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G839", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "M323", "original": "By start of 2019, will a \"reactionless EM drive\" (broadly construed) be launched on a rocket?", "negated": "By start of 2019, will a \"reactionless EM drive\" (broadly construed) fail to be launched on a rocket?" }, { "id": "M248", "original": "By 2020 will a credible journalist or government source disclose that a viable sample of a Select Agent has been stolen from a (or during transport to/from) a US Select Agent lab?", "negated": "By 2020 will no credible journalist or government source disclose that a viable sample of a Select Agent has been stolen from a (or during transport to/from) a US Select Agent lab?" }, { "id": "M6729", "original": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", "negated": "Will the US not experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?" }, { "id": "M3776", "original": "Will Michael Bloomberg have dropped out of the Presidential race March the 13th, 11:59PM EST?", "negated": "Will Michael Bloomberg have stayed in the Presidential race March the 13th, 11:59PM EST?" }, { "id": "G1035", "original": "Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries invert before 2019?", "negated": "Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries not invert before 2019?" }, { "id": "M946", "original": "A mission associated with Moon Express successfully reach the moon by start of 2021?", "negated": "No mission associated with Moon Express successfully reach the moon by start of 2021?" }, { "id": "M4697", "original": "Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?", "negated": "Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it not include his full name?" }, { "id": "M289", "original": "Will the results of the VITAL study support a connection between daily supplements of vitamin D3 and/or omega-3 fatty acids and decreased risk of cancer, heart disease, and stroke in people with no prior history of these illnesses?", "negated": "Will the results of the VITAL study not support a connection between daily supplements of vitamin D3 and/or omega-3 fatty acids and decreased risk of cancer, heart disease, and stroke in people with no prior history of these illnesses?" }, { "id": "G769", "original": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Libya's Sharara oil field experience a production shutdown?", "negated": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Libya's Sharara oil field not experience a production shutdown?" }, { "id": "G390", "original": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2017?", "negated": "Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) not be completed in 2017?" }, { "id": "M292", "original": "Will a clinical trial be entered into the U.S. database with a start date prior to September 1, 2017, to test an IFITM3-based therapy to treat or protect against the Zika virus in humans?", "negated": "Will no clinical trial be entered into the U.S. database with a start date prior to September 1, 2017, to test an IFITM3-based therapy to treat or protect against the Zika virus in humans?" }, { "id": "G359", "original": "Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party meet before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party not meet before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M2521", "original": "Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit?", "negated": "Do Upper-Class Kids Later not Attribute Success to Merit?" }, { "id": "G1682", "original": "Will an NBA Finals series decide a 2020 NBA Champion before 15 October 2020?", "negated": "Will no NBA Finals series decide a 2020 NBA Champion before 15 October 2020?" }, { "id": "M3345", "original": "Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for protecting animals used in farming by the end 2022?", "negated": "Will the Animal Protection Index award neither the USA nor China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for protecting animals used in farming by the end 2022?" }, { "id": "M4736", "original": "Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?", "negated": "Will the NYT end up publishing no articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?" }, { "id": "G920", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "M2947", "original": "Will Cory Booker have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New Jersey's primary election?", "negated": "Will Cory Booker not have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New Jersey's primary election?" }, { "id": "G146", "original": "Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?", "negated": "Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil not dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?" }, { "id": "M4279", "original": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?", "negated": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first not fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?" }, { "id": "G1708", "original": "Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?", "negated": "Will China's Three Gorges Dam not fail before 1 October 2020?" }, { "id": "M538", "original": "Will Bitcoin cash continue to fade into relative unimportance, as opposed to rallying into another major currency?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin cash cease to fade into relative unimportance, as opposed to rallying into a major currency?" }, { "id": "M388", "original": "Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?", "negated": "Will 2017 not see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?" }, { "id": "M3493", "original": "Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?", "negated": "Will Prediction Markets not judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?" }, { "id": "M525", "original": "LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?", "negated": "No LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?" }, { "id": "M3655", "original": "Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "negated": "Will no vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?" }, { "id": "M3752", "original": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?", "negated": "Will the CDC not issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?" }, { "id": "G149", "original": "Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?", "negated": "Will no majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?" }, { "id": "M2535", "original": "Will CMU be the university with the largest number of papers accepted to NeurIPS 2019 with at least one author affiliation?", "negated": "Will CMU not be the university with the largest number of papers accepted to NeurIPS 2019 with at least one author affiliation?" }, { "id": "M3666", "original": "Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?", "negated": "Will the PredictIt prediction market perform equally or underperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?" }, { "id": "M1671", "original": "Will President Trump fire Jerome Powell, or ask him to resign, with Powell acceding to that request?", "negated": "Will President Trump neither fire Jerome Powell, nor ask him to resign, with Powell acceding to that request?" }, { "id": "G453", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan not engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "M2662", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?", "negated": "Will the UK remain in the EU without reaching any agreement?" }, { "id": "G294", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will Russia not allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?" }, { "id": "G1016", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "M262", "original": "Is market volatility set to strongly increase?", "negated": "Is market volatility set to not strongly increase?" }, { "id": "G18", "original": "Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) not be completed before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G387", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the European Council not announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?" }, { "id": "M427", "original": "Will a solid metallic hydrogen be metastable at room temperature?", "negated": "Will no solid metallic hydrogen be metastable at room temperature?" }, { "id": "M5360", "original": "Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 close equally or lower in 2020 than 2019?" }, { "id": "M1599", "original": "Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up comedy special before 2021?", "negated": "Will Louis C.K. not release a stand-up comedy special before 2021?" }, { "id": "G33", "original": "Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?", "negated": "Will both houses of Congress not pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?" }, { "id": "G912", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G1833", "original": "Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?", "negated": "Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) not conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?" }, { "id": "M3614", "original": "If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?", "negated": "If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders not be the nominee?" }, { "id": "G964", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in visit Pyongyang?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in not visit Pyongyang?" }, { "id": "G1088", "original": "Will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Robert Mueller continue as Special Counsel until 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "M66", "original": "Will EVE Online cease operations by the end of 2019?", "negated": "Will EVE Online continue operations by the end of 2019?" }, { "id": "G631", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M661", "original": "Will health authorities finally change their tune 40 years after getting behind a low fat, high carb diet?", "negated": "Will health authorities not change their tune 40 years after getting behind a low fat, high carb diet?" }, { "id": "M1582", "original": "Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?", "negated": "Will UK not have general elections before 29 March 2019?" }, { "id": "M1664", "original": "Will the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate win the next Parliamentary election held for the Peterborough constituency, regardless of when it is held?", "negated": "Will the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate not win the next Parliamentary election held for the Peterborough constituency, regardless of when it is held?" }, { "id": "G366", "original": "Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?", "negated": "Will no early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?" }, { "id": "M660", "original": "By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?", "negated": "By 2020, will neither of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?" }, { "id": "G351", "original": "Will Salva Kiir cease to be President of South Sudan before 1 December 2017?", "negated": "Will Salva Kiir remain President of South Sudan through 1 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M391", "original": "Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will no 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "M3491", "original": "Will China fail to partially curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?", "negated": "Will China partially curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?" }, { "id": "M448", "original": "Will Marine le Pen win the French presidential Election ?", "negated": "Will Marine le Pen not win the French presidential Election ?" }, { "id": "G914", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "M4876", "original": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", "negated": "Will no language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?" }, { "id": "G626", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "M5104", "original": "Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?", "negated": "Will a general election not be held in Mali before 2021?" }, { "id": "M183", "original": "Will an autonomous vehicle project, like the Google Self-Driving Car, integrate light polarization technology into their 3D vision systems by 2019?", "negated": "Will no autonomous vehicle project, like the Google Self-Driving Car, integrate light polarization technology into their 3D vision systems by 2019?" }, { "id": "M3516", "original": "Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?", "negated": "Will Beyond Meat perform equally or underperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?" }, { "id": "G9", "original": "Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?", "negated": "Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) not default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?" }, { "id": "G1078", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G619", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "M4238", "original": "Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?", "negated": "Will experts fail to beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?" }, { "id": "G1069", "original": "Will California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 1 November 2019?", "negated": "Will California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company not file for bankruptcy before 1 November 2019?" }, { "id": "M517", "original": "Will Michael Flynn be charged with any crime by November 11, 2017?", "negated": "Will Michael Flynn not be charged with any crime by November 11, 2017?" }, { "id": "G807", "original": "Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger?", "negated": "Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there not be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger?" }, { "id": "G689", "original": "Will a Republican win the special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat?", "negated": "Will a Democrat win the special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat?" }, { "id": "M368", "original": "How important are \"time crystals\"?", "negated": "How unimportant are \"time crystals\"?" }, { "id": "G1017", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M602", "original": "Prior to January 31, 2018, will the numerical value of the dollar to bitcoin rate exceed the numerical value of the DJIA Index?", "negated": "Prior to January 31, 2018, will the numerical value of the dollar to bitcoin rate equal or not exceed the numerical value of the DJIA Index?" }, { "id": "G1550", "original": "Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump announce that Nikki Haley will be his 2020 running mate?", "negated": "Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump not announce that Nikki Haley not be his 2020 running mate?" }, { "id": "G1557", "original": "Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%?", "negated": "Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. equal or stay above 3.00%?" }, { "id": "M379", "original": "Is Arnold still alive?", "negated": "Is Arnold dead?" }, { "id": "G64", "original": "Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will President Putin not meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "M1641", "original": "Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?" }, { "id": "M4813", "original": "Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?", "negated": "Will Tesla's stock price not close below $1,000 per share before 2021?" }, { "id": "G667", "original": "Will the \"comfort women\" statue be removed from outside the Japanese Consulate in Busan before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will the \"comfort women\" statue not be removed from outside the Japanese Consulate in Busan before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M2926", "original": "Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?", "negated": "Will Iran not execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?" }, { "id": "G540", "original": "Before 1 October 2017, will one day of protests in Venezuela result in more than 25 fatalities?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2017, will one day of protests in Venezuela result in equal or less than 25 fatalities?" }, { "id": "M260", "original": "What will the Metaculus community predict about Brexit?", "negated": "What will the Metaculus community not predict about Brexit?" }, { "id": "M1609", "original": "Will Fulham F.C. be placed within the bottom three positions of the English Premier League at the end of the 2018–19 season, after any potential play-off matches to decide ties?", "negated": "Will Fulham F.C. not be placed within the bottom three positions of the English Premier League at the end of the 2018–19 season, after any potential play-off matches to decide ties?" }, { "id": "M4556", "original": "Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?", "negated": "Will 3Blue1Brown not begin a new video series in the month of July?" }, { "id": "M6425", "original": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "negated": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets not be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?" }, { "id": "G1344", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. House of Representatives not pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?" }, { "id": "G818", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?", "negated": "Will there be no lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?" }, { "id": "M6418", "original": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "negated": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve not achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?" }, { "id": "M414", "original": "Will mosquitoes that have been either genetically modified or infected with Wolbachia be released in the U.S. in 2017?", "negated": "Will no mosquitoes that have been either genetically modified or infected with Wolbachia be released in the U.S. in 2017?" }, { "id": "G1747", "original": "Will California voters approve Proposition 16 (Repeal Proposition 209 Affirmative Action Amendment)?", "negated": "Will California voters not approve Proposition 16 (Repeal Proposition 209 Affirmative Action Amendment)?" }, { "id": "M1533", "original": "Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?", "negated": "Will Tesla not deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?" }, { "id": "M3681", "original": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "negated": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 did not originate inside a research lab in Hubei?" }, { "id": "M2613", "original": "Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?", "negated": "Will Richard Branson go to space on July 20th 2019?" }, { "id": "M2588", "original": "On 1 January 2020, will Tesla still have a larger market capitalization than Ford?", "negated": "On 1 January 2020, will Tesla not still have a larger market capitalization than Ford?" }, { "id": "M5219", "original": "Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?", "negated": "Will no other paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?" }, { "id": "M533", "original": "Will one or more additional SEC alerts be issued during November 2017?", "negated": "Will no additional SEC alerts be issued during November 2017?" }, { "id": "M208", "original": "By April of 2021, will additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?", "negated": "By April of 2021, will no additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?" }, { "id": "M558", "original": "Will the vaquita be declared extinct before 2020?", "negated": "Will the vaquita not be declared extinct before 2020?" }, { "id": "C70", "original": "Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?", "negated": "Will the United States not add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?" }, { "id": "M2976", "original": "Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?", "negated": "Will there be equal or fewer ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?" }, { "id": "G1067", "original": "Will Narendra Modi be appointed to a second consecutive term as prime minister of India after the 2019 general elections?", "negated": "Will Narendra Modi not be appointed to a second consecutive term as prime minister of India after the 2019 general elections?" }, { "id": "M4836", "original": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", "negated": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover not land on Mars?" }, { "id": "M370", "original": "Will this paper on solid metallic hydrogen have high impact?", "negated": "Will this paper on solid metallic hydrogen not have high impact?" }, { "id": "G1022", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "G1082", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G1499", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) not be mobilized in Hong Kong?" }, { "id": "M1379", "original": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not enter a recession by July 1, 2019?" }, { "id": "M6829", "original": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", "negated": "Will Derek Chauvin not be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?" }, { "id": "G101", "original": "Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will anti-Islamic State forces not retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M244", "original": "By 2018 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report that a naturally-occurring qualitatively new mosquito-borne pathogen with a potential death rate of > 2% has been discovered?", "negated": "By 2018 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper not report that a naturally-occurring qualitatively new mosquito-borne pathogen with a potential death rate of > 2% has been discovered?" }, { "id": "G442", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will no date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?" }, { "id": "M542", "original": "Will there be a significant theft of cryptocurrency during November 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no significant theft of cryptocurrency during November 2017?" }, { "id": "G522", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "M4821", "original": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?", "negated": "Will EA Global London 2021 not be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?" }, { "id": "M7211", "original": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?", "negated": "Will no body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?" }, { "id": "M3991", "original": "Will any of the top 10 most popular US internet websites crash in the month of April?", "negated": "Will none of the top 10 most popular US internet websites crash in the month of April?" }, { "id": "G1527", "original": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Scott Morrison not cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "G1085", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M291", "original": "Will TAME secure enough funding, public or private, to proceed by October 1, 2017?", "negated": "Will TAME not secure enough funding, public or private, to proceed by October 1, 2017?" }, { "id": "G1018", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M45", "original": "In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?", "negated": "In 2016, will no AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?" }, { "id": "G1684", "original": "Will the 2019-20 NBA season resume on 30 July 2020?", "negated": "Will the 2019-20 NBA season not resume on 30 July 2020?" }, { "id": "G1713", "original": "Will the FA Cup be decided with a penalty shootout?", "negated": "Will the FA Cup not be decided with a penalty shootout?" }, { "id": "G1100", "original": "Will Mick Mulvaney cease to be White House Chief of Staff before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Mick Mulvaney continue to be White House Chief of Staff after 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G797", "original": "Will an individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017?", "negated": "Will no individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017?" }, { "id": "M1301", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?", "negated": "Will the UK not leave the EU by the end of June 2020?" }, { "id": "M377", "original": "Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "G811", "original": "Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, will there be a shutdown of the US federal government?", "negated": "Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, will there not be a shutdown of the US federal government?" }, { "id": "M677", "original": "Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?", "negated": "Will Trump and Kim Jong Un not actually meet?" }, { "id": "M928", "original": "Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong-un not meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?" }, { "id": "M7377", "original": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?", "negated": "Will the VIX Index not see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?" }, { "id": "M3134", "original": "Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump remain in the office of U.S. president for the duration of his first term?" }, { "id": "M4040", "original": "Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not recover from COVID-19?" }, { "id": "M143", "original": "Will WHO recognize ageing as a disease in ICD-11?", "negated": "Will WHO not recognize ageing as a disease in ICD-11?" }, { "id": "M1414", "original": "Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?", "negated": "Will Texas not elect a Democratic senator in 2018?" }, { "id": "G773", "original": "Will Catalan pro-independence parties hold a majority of seats after the upcoming regional elections?", "negated": "Will Catalan pro-independence parties not hold a majority of seats after the upcoming regional elections?" }, { "id": "M106", "original": "In the 2016 or 2017 competitions, will a chatbot score 100% in the 20-question preliminary round?", "negated": "In the 2016 or 2017 competitions, will no chatbot score 100% in the 20-question preliminary round?" }, { "id": "G1079", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M3503", "original": "Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?", "negated": "Will the Democrats not hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?" }, { "id": "M5820", "original": "Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed in getting VISA to significantly reduce fees for charitable donations?", "negated": "Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign fail in getting VISA to significantly reduce fees for charitable donations?" }, { "id": "M167", "original": "Will the Bulletin advance the clock to two or fewer minutes to midnight?", "negated": "Will the Bulletin not advance the clock to two or fewer minutes to midnight?" }, { "id": "G350", "original": "Will India and Pakistan both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will India and Pakistan both not attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M5993", "original": "Will Washington state's Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", "negated": "Will Washington state's Department of Revenue not report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?" }, { "id": "M6210", "original": "Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump be in the United States on 2021-01-20?" }, { "id": "M411", "original": "Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market?", "negated": "Will 2017 not be an up year from the US Stock Market?" }, { "id": "M196", "original": "By 2020, will a US clinical trial begin in which the goal is a temporary or permanent complete inhibition of the pain response in a human?", "negated": "By 2020, will no US clinical trial begin in which the goal is temporary or permanent permanent complete inhibition of the pain response in a human?" }, { "id": "M647", "original": "Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) lead to the death of a crew member?", "negated": "Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) not lead to the death of a crew member?" }, { "id": "M3918", "original": "Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?", "negated": "Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) not become law by 4/25/20?" }, { "id": "G1220", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M199", "original": "By January 1st, 2018, will a paper appear on the physics arXiv or in a refereed journal describing 5-sigma equivalent evidence for dark matter detection in th Xenon1T experiment?", "negated": "By January 1st, 2018, will no paper appear on the physics arXiv or in a refereed journal describing 5-sigma equivalent evidence for dark matter detection in the Xenon1T experiment?" }, { "id": "M20", "original": "By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?", "negated": "By July 1, 2016 will no 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?" }, { "id": "M47", "original": "Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2016?", "negated": "Will the VIX Index print below or equal to 50 in 2016?" }, { "id": "M3083", "original": "By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?", "negated": "By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won equal or more than 80% of its games against top players?" }, { "id": "M1345", "original": "Will Tesla be a private company at some point prior to 2020?", "negated": "Will Tesla not be a private company at every point in time prior to 2020?" }, { "id": "G430", "original": "Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program not resume before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G167", "original": "Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?", "negated": "Will Tesla Motors deliver less than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?" }, { "id": "M211", "original": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?", "negated": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment not be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?" }, { "id": "M4260", "original": "Before May 15 2020, will the government of North Korea officially confirm or acknowledge the death of Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea?", "negated": "Before May 15 2020, will the government of North Korea not officially confirm or acknowledge the death of Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea?" }, { "id": "M338", "original": "Will the S&P 500 change by > 2.5% from its opening on Nov. 8 to its closing on Nov. 9?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 change by <= 2.5% from its opening on Nov. 8 to its closing on Nov. 9?" }, { "id": "G1231", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "M2638", "original": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?", "negated": "Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap not be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?" }, { "id": "G252", "original": "Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?", "negated": "Before 18 October 2016, will there not be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?" }, { "id": "M671", "original": "Will this new material (an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon: HfN0.38C0.51) – or some other compound – break (or should we say \"melt\") the melting point record by 2021?", "negated": "Will this new material (an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon: HfN0.38C0.51) – or some other compound – not break (or should we say \"melt\") the melting point record by 2021?" }, { "id": "G622", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not exist an armed group from Sudan which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M2669", "original": "Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?", "negated": "Will the World GDP not grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?" }, { "id": "M576", "original": "By Dec. 1, will it either be possible to make purchases on Amazon, of at least some goods or services, using Bitcoin, or will there be a firm date announced by Amazon prior to Jan. 1, 2018 when this will be possible?", "negated": "By Dec. 1, will it neither be possible to make purchases on Amazon, of at least some goods or services, using Bitcoin, nor will there be a firm date announced by Amazon prior to Jan. 1, 2018 when this will be possible?" }, { "id": "M369", "original": "Will an ultrasound-based Alzheimer's treatment begin clinical trials in humans in 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be any ultrasound-based Alzheimer's treatment begin clinical trials in humans in 2017?" }, { "id": "G377", "original": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?", "negated": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. not provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?" }, { "id": "G455", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will there not be any armed groups from Turkey which engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M178", "original": "Will the number of preprints on the diphoton excess fall within a Poisson distribution with a mean of 271 papers?", "negated": "Will the number of preprints on the diphoton excess not fall within a Poisson distribution with a mean of 271 papers?" }, { "id": "G34", "original": "Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?", "negated": "Will China not officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?" }, { "id": "M4318", "original": "Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "negated": "Will EA Global London 2020 not be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?" }, { "id": "M5396", "original": "Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "negated": "Will proposition 16 not be passed in the 2020 California election?" }, { "id": "G610", "original": "Will Russia execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?", "negated": "Will Russia not execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?" }, { "id": "M429", "original": "Will the high point of the 20-city Case-Schiller index in 2017 be higher than that in 2016?", "negated": "Will the high point of the 20-city Case-Schiller index in 2017 be lower than that in 2016?" }, { "id": "M1372", "original": "Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?", "negated": "Will no NFL player die during any game during the 2018-2019 season?" }, { "id": "M6001", "original": "How will the Longbets \"bioerror\" question resolve?", "negated": "How will the Longbets \"bioerror\" question not resolve?" }, { "id": "M238", "original": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017?", "negated": "Will the Democratic Party not control the U.S. Senate in 2017?" }, { "id": "M8946", "original": "Will Facebook implement a feature to explain news feed recommendations before 2026?", "negated": "Will Facebook not implement a feature to explain news feed recommendations before 2026?" }, { "id": "G109", "original": "Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?", "negated": "Will Moody's not downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?" }, { "id": "C52", "original": "Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?", "negated": "Will the Executive Branch not delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?" }, { "id": "M346", "original": "Will an artificial pancreas competitor secure FDA approval by the end of 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be an artificial pancreas competitor which secures FDA approval by the end of 2017?" }, { "id": "C28", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?", "negated": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?" }, { "id": "C58", "original": "Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?", "negated": "Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain not announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?" }, { "id": "M3486", "original": "Will Donald Trump fail to appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his first term?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his first term?" }, { "id": "M6470", "original": "Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?", "negated": "Will GameStop (GME) not reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?" }, { "id": "M3499", "original": "Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?", "negated": "Will Keir Starmer lose the 2020 Labour leadership contest?" }, { "id": "M6591", "original": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "negated": "Will the US not implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?" }, { "id": "M186", "original": "Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the remaining Republican and Democratic presidential primary debates be less than 5 minutes?", "negated": "Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the remaining Republican and Democratic presidential primary debates be greater than 5 minutes?" }, { "id": "G1477", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M3921", "original": "Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?", "negated": "Will the US federal government not shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?" }, { "id": "M999", "original": "Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will Julian Assange not still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M2766", "original": "Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?", "negated": "Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF not approve any tranches for release to Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M2754", "original": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for two consecutive Saturdays, will fewer than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?", "negated": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for every two consecutive Saturdays, will more than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?" }, { "id": "M1047", "original": "Will at least one cave-trapped Thai teenager enter a pressurized submarine system provided by Musk?", "negated": "Will no cave-trapped Thai teenager enter a pressurized submarine system provided by Musk?" }, { "id": "M597", "original": "Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court fail to set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?" }, { "id": "G911", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M5397", "original": "Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "negated": "Will proposition 21 be rejected in the 2020 California election?" }, { "id": "G913", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?" }, { "id": "M5502", "original": "Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?", "negated": "Will 538 underperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?" }, { "id": "G1001", "original": "Before 2019, will the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General name a suspected author of the New York Times \"Resistance\" op-ed?", "negated": "Before 2019, will the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General not name a suspected author of the New York Times \"Resistance\" op-ed?" }, { "id": "M3492", "original": "Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?", "negated": "Will the GOP not hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?" }, { "id": "G624", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "M4749", "original": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be dead on 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M1567", "original": "Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2019?", "negated": "Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet not reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2019?" }, { "id": "M4607", "original": "Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?", "negated": "Will California Assembly Bill 3155 not be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?" }, { "id": "M1550", "original": "By December 31, 2019, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate \"all polls\" approval tracker?", "negated": "By December 31, 2019, will there not be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate \"all polls\" approval tracker?" }, { "id": "G464", "original": "Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017?" }, { "id": "M17", "original": "Will superparticles be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider by July 8, 2016?", "negated": "Will superparticles fail to be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider by July 8, 2016?" }, { "id": "M3744", "original": "Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?", "negated": "Will no city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?" }, { "id": "G355", "original": "Will Alibaba's market capitalisation exceed Tencent's at any point between 23 November 2016 and 1 June 2017?", "negated": "Will Alibaba's market capitalisation not exceed Tencent's at any point between 23 November 2016 and 1 June 2017?" }, { "id": "G363", "original": "Will the Dakota Access Pipeline begin transporting oil before January 2018?", "negated": "Will the Dakota Access Pipeline not begin transporting oil before January 2018?" }, { "id": "M1610", "original": "Before July 1st 2019, will Ancestry.com announce that they have 'stored' or 'tested' (or similar language) the genetic information of at least 20 million individuals?", "negated": "By July 1st 2019, will Ancestry.com not announce that they have 'stored' or 'tested' (or similar language) the genetic information of at least 20 million individuals?" }, { "id": "M659", "original": "By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?", "negated": "By 2021 will there not be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?" }, { "id": "G39", "original": "Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?", "negated": "Will Hillary Clinton not win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?" }, { "id": "M3504", "original": "Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?", "negated": "Will Democrats not win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?" }, { "id": "M633", "original": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?" }, { "id": "M584", "original": "Will books published in 1923 enter the U.S. public domain on January 1, 2019?", "negated": "Will books published in 1923 fail to enter the U.S. public domain on January 1, 2019?" }, { "id": "G1899", "original": "Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?", "negated": "Will the New START treaty fail to be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?" }, { "id": "M1328", "original": "Will Bitcoin's estimated energy consumption fail to reach a value of at least 80 TWh/yr on some day within 2018?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin's estimated energy consumption reach a value of at least 80 TWh/yr on some day within 2018?" }, { "id": "G263", "original": "Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?", "negated": "Will the European Parliament not vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?" }, { "id": "G127", "original": "Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?", "negated": "Will the government of Colombia and the FARC not sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?" }, { "id": "G1054", "original": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will North Korea not conduct any nuclear tests before 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G138", "original": "Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?", "negated": "Will the United States not remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?" }, { "id": "M5359", "original": "Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?", "negated": "Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election not be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?" }, { "id": "M3633", "original": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "negated": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 not agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?" }, { "id": "M1690", "original": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong-un not be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G881", "original": "In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is constitutional?" }, { "id": "M5449", "original": "Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?", "negated": "Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by less than 3 percentage points?" }, { "id": "G344", "original": "Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?", "negated": "Will The Birth of a Nation not be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?" }, { "id": "G844", "original": "Will Alexei Navalny be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?", "negated": "Will Alexei Navalny not be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?" }, { "id": "G545", "original": "Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"Yemen\" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017?", "negated": "Will FEWS NET not publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"Yemen\" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G1422", "original": "Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban sign a peace agreement?", "negated": "Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban not sign a peace agreement?" }, { "id": "G454", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?" }, { "id": "G1081", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G1825", "original": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?", "negated": "By 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas continue to be president of the Palestinian Authority?" }, { "id": "G1857", "original": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 not become law before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M4734", "original": "Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?", "negated": "Will the US not ban TikTok by the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M4098", "original": "Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?", "negated": "Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen fail to complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?" }, { "id": "M234", "original": "Will NASA rejoin as a larger partner in the eLISA mission, meeting or exceeding 20% contribution in funding?", "negated": "Will NASA not rejoin as a larger partner in the eLISA mission, meeting or exceeding 20% contribution in funding?" }, { "id": "G13", "original": "Will the city of Venice lift its ban on \"Jean A Deux Mamans\" or \"Piccolo Uovo\" before 1 September 2016?", "negated": "Will the city of Venice not lift its ban on \"Jean A Deux Mamans\" or \"Piccolo Uovo\" before 1 September 2016?" }, { "id": "M4935", "original": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?", "negated": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement not be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?" }, { "id": "M455", "original": "What is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died?", "negated": "What is the probability that the individual will not \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died?" }, { "id": "G1076", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "G143", "original": "Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?", "negated": "Will the Centers for Disease Control not elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?" }, { "id": "M1421", "original": "Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018?", "negated": "Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial not be discovered by Nov 6 2018?" }, { "id": "G665", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Transport for London (TfL) issue a license for Uber?", "negated": "By 1 January 2018, will Transport for London (TfL) not issue a license for Uber?" }, { "id": "G1219", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will there not be an armed group from Sudan which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M3790", "original": "Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?", "negated": "Will Dominic Cummings not be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?" }, { "id": "M933", "original": "Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end?", "negated": "Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle not announce a pregnancy by year's end?" }, { "id": "M1623", "original": "Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?", "negated": "Will there not be a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?" }, { "id": "G1071", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will there not be an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M425", "original": "Will the $20 million X-prize be awarded for a mission launched in 2017?", "negated": "Will the $20 million X-prize not be awarded for a mission launched in 2017?" }, { "id": "G463", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the United Kingdom and the European Union reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the United Kingdom and the European Union fail to reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU?" }, { "id": "G73", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G1649", "original": "Before 29 August 2020, will the German Bundesbank be barred from participating in the European Central Bank's (ECB's) PSPP quantitative easing program?", "negated": "By 29 August 2020, will the German Bundesbank not be barred from participating in the European Central Bank's (ECB's) PSPP quantitative easing program?" }, { "id": "G440", "original": "Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will a U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail or will a Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office?", "negated": "Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will no U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail and will no Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office?" }, { "id": "M2928", "original": "Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?", "negated": "Will the International Crisis Group not report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?" }, { "id": "M1704", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 not be found?" }, { "id": "G641", "original": "Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M554", "original": "Will a major cryptocurrency exchange outside of China shut down by Nov. 30 2017 citing a request or order from its host country's national government?", "negated": "Will no major cryptocurrency exchange outside of China shut down by Nov. 30 2017 citing a request or order from its host country's national government?" }, { "id": "M3578", "original": "Will Iran get neither of the two satellites into space by 1 January 2021??", "negated": "Will Iran get either of the two satellites into space by 1 January 2021??" }, { "id": "G1669", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Barakah nuclear power plant begin to supply electricity to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power grid?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Barakah nuclear power plant not begin to supply electricity to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power grid?" }, { "id": "M1100", "original": "Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?", "negated": "Will Trump fail to be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?" }, { "id": "G662", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of 'bump stocks'?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will the US federal government not ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of 'bump stocks'?" }, { "id": "M1383", "original": "Will OpenAI Five win the first of its DotA 2 matches at The International?", "negated": "Will OpenAI Five lose the first of its DotA 2 matches at The International?" }, { "id": "M3072", "original": "Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?", "negated": "Will Nabil Karoui lose the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?" }, { "id": "G481", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will President Trump not sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax?" }, { "id": "M131", "original": "Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will Theranos not get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M5824", "original": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "negated": "Will the UK government fail in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?" }, { "id": "G1167", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M216", "original": "Will the Allen Telescope Array's survey of red dwarf stars yield valuable scientific information, whether regarding ET life or just the physics of red dwarf stars (or even some other radio sources serendipidously observed)?", "negated": "Will the Allen Telescope Array's survey of red dwarf stars fail to yield valuable scientific information, whether regarding ET life or just the physics of red dwarf stars (or even some other radio sources serendipidously observed)?" }, { "id": "M6222", "original": "Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?", "negated": "Will federal criminal charges not be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?" }, { "id": "G836", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will there not be an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "G287", "original": "Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite?", "negated": "Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC not win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite?" }, { "id": "M3709", "original": "Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?", "negated": "Will none of the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?" }, { "id": "G153", "original": "Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?", "negated": "Will Keiko Fujimori lose Peru's upcoming presidential election?" }, { "id": "M3235", "original": "Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?", "negated": "Before 30 November 2019, will it not be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?" }, { "id": "G70", "original": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will no NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M2971", "original": "Will the GBP trade at equal to, or less than, €1.000 at any time before January 1st, 2020?", "negated": "Will the GBP trade at greater than €1.000 at all times before January 1st, 2020?" }, { "id": "G1223", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M440", "original": "Will Angela Merkel be re-elected as Chancellor of Germany?", "negated": "Will Angela Merkel not be re-elected as Chancellor of Germany?" }, { "id": "M258", "original": "With what probability will the UK vote to leave the EU (i.e. \"yes\" on Brexit)?", "negated": "With what probability will the UK not vote to leave the EU (i.e. \"yes\" on Brexit)?" }, { "id": "M1649", "original": "Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1 2020?", "negated": "Will Jeremy Corbyn not become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1 2020?" }, { "id": "G1202", "original": "Before 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?", "negated": "By 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress not ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?" }, { "id": "G298", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Yemen's Houthi rebels sign a peace agreement that includes provisions about the establishment or recognition of a single, national government?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will Yemen's Houthi rebels not sign a peace agreement that includes provisions about the establishment or recognition of a single, national government?" }, { "id": "M342", "original": "Will the second Clinton-Trump debate move the market in real time?", "negated": "Will the second Clinton-Trump debate not move the market in real time?" }, { "id": "M1701", "original": "Will the first crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner (test) launch take place prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?", "negated": "Will the first crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner (test) launch not take place prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?" }, { "id": "M6303", "original": "Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?", "negated": "Will Trump not be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?" }, { "id": "M41", "original": "Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?", "negated": "Has no new boson been discovered at the LHC?" }, { "id": "G179", "original": "Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?", "negated": "By 18 October 2016, will the US not announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?" }, { "id": "M1670", "original": "Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?", "negated": "Will the DJIA hit 20,000 before it next touches 25,000?" }, { "id": "G561", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide?", "negated": "By 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte not proclaim martial law nationwide?" }, { "id": "C85", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?", "negated": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?" }, { "id": "G468", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX fail relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing?" }, { "id": "M6", "original": "Will regulations on commercial use of unmanned aerial systems be finalized by the FAA by June 15, 2016?", "negated": "Will regulations on commercial use of unmanned aerial systems not be finalized by the FAA by June 15, 2016?" }, { "id": "G620", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M109", "original": "Will \"Planet Nine\" be discovered in 2016?", "negated": "Will \"Planet Nine\" not be discovered in 2016?" }, { "id": "M888", "original": "Will patches fixing this round of Specter-NG vulnerabilities be available for end-user via automatic Windows 10 updates by the end of August, for the most recent micro-architecture?", "negated": "Will patches fixing this round of Specter-NG vulnerabilities not be available for end-user via automatic Windows 10 updates by the end of August, for the most recent micro-architecture?" }, { "id": "M3779", "original": "Will all major candidates for the US Presidential election survive the COVID-19 epidemic?", "negated": "Will any major candidates for the US Presidential election fail to survive the COVID-19 epidemic?" }, { "id": "G1597", "original": "Will the Council of the European Union make an Article 7.1 determination against Hungary before 31 December 2020?", "negated": "Will the Council of the European Union not make an Article 7.1 determination against Hungary before 31 December 2020?" }, { "id": "G251", "original": "Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?", "negated": "Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue no rupee-denominated bonds?" }, { "id": "M190", "original": "Will the FDA approve expanded use of Oxitec's self-limiting mosquitos for Aedes aegypti population control in the United States by September 1, 2016?", "negated": "Will the FDA not approve expanded use of Oxitec's self-limiting mosquitos for Aedes aegypti population control in the United States by September 1, 2016?" }, { "id": "M3632", "original": "Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?", "negated": "Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring not come true in 2020?" }, { "id": "M3750", "original": "Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country with at least 10M citizens due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "negated": "Will Airbnb's services not be suspended in any country with at least 10M citizens due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?" }, { "id": "M5441", "original": "Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will there not be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "M172", "original": "Will online voting for all registered voters expand by the 2020 general election?", "negated": "Will online voting for all registered voters not expand by the 2020 general election?" }, { "id": "M3875", "original": "Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?", "negated": "Will fewer than 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?" }, { "id": "M976", "original": "Will a gravitational wave observatory officially announce the discovery of a 6th black hole-black hole merge by the end of summer 2018 (September 22, 2018)?", "negated": "Will a gravitational wave observatory not officially announce the discovery of a 6th black hole-black hole merge by the end of summer 2018 (September 22, 2018)?" }, { "id": "G915", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "G493", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council not hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria?" }, { "id": "M3041", "original": "Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon on any day in September 2019?", "negated": "Will Chandrayaan-2 not softly land on the moon on any day in September 2019?" }, { "id": "G1827", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union not decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?" }, { "id": "G602", "original": "Before 29 December 2017, will it be announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti?", "negated": "Before 29 December 2017, will it not be announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti?" }, { "id": "M975", "original": "Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out?", "negated": "Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon not blast off before 2018 is out?" }, { "id": "M253", "original": "By 2020 will a human be deliberately infected (without their consent) by a pathogenic virus genetically engineered to increase its virulence, transmissibility, or scope of effect?", "negated": "By 2020 will there be no cases of a human being deliberately infected (without their consent) by a pathogenic virus genetically engineered to increase its virulence, transmissibility, or scope of effect?" }, { "id": "G1051", "original": "Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?", "negated": "Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons not approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?" }, { "id": "M5357", "original": "By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?", "negated": "By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia not announce a peace or normalization agreement?" }, { "id": "G75", "original": "Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic neither resign, nor lose a vote of confidence, nor cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "M906", "original": "Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?", "negated": "Will Iran not launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?" }, { "id": "G922", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M4555", "original": "Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July of 2020?", "negated": "Will Trump's pants catch fire on fewer than five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July of 2020?" }, { "id": "G1861", "original": "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?", "negated": "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England not set its Bank Rate to below zero?" }, { "id": "M4887", "original": "Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?", "negated": "Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by a cause besides suicide?" }, { "id": "C55", "original": "Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020? ", "negated": "Will the Indian government cease the TikTok ban by July 14, 2020?" }, { "id": "M3753", "original": "Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?", "negated": "Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest not be cancelled due to COVID-19?" }, { "id": "G518", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G894", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government not ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?" }, { "id": "M127", "original": "Will Mochizuki's proof of the \"abc conjecture\" be formally accepted by the mathematics community by the end of 2017?", "negated": "Will Mochizuki's proof of the \"abc conjecture\" not be formally accepted by the mathematics community by the end of 2017?" }, { "id": "M2647", "original": "Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?" }, { "id": "G1626", "original": "Will the UAE's Customer Happiness Index be higher for 2020 as compared to 2019?", "negated": "Will the UAE's Customer Happiness Index be lower for 2020 as compared to 2019?" }, { "id": "G1176", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M5105", "original": "Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?", "negated": "Will Bannon not be found guilty of any fraud charges?" }, { "id": "M2626", "original": "More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018?", "negated": "Will fewer animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018?" }, { "id": "M941", "original": "By January 1st, 2020, will a credible reports indicate that a formal submission has been made to a regulatory body proposing to test a malaria-combatting gene drive in a wild population?", "negated": "By January 1st, 2020, will no credible reports indicate that a formal submission has been made to a regulatory body proposing to test a malaria-combatting gene drive in a wild population?" }, { "id": "M1687", "original": "By Jan 1, 2021 will an event occur in which a credible media source reports that a major medical journal has declined to publish an otherwise-publishable scientific paper on human pathogens due to concerns that it constitutes an information hazard?", "negated": "By Jan 1, 2021 will there not be an event in which a credible media source reports that a major medical journal has declined to publish an otherwise-publishable scientific paper on human pathogens due to concerns that it constitutes an information hazard?" }, { "id": "M809", "original": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?", "negated": "Will members of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?" }, { "id": "G308", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production not exceed 4 million barrels per day?" }, { "id": "M316", "original": "Will Wikileaks release a significant augmentation to the Equation Group cyberespionage archive?", "negated": "Will Wikileaks not release a significant augmentation to the Equation Group cyberespionage archive?" }, { "id": "G916", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed groups from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M550", "original": "By September 15, will a any of the three Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges Yunbi, Dohonghua or Tuanbao cease operations?", "negated": "By September 15, will none of the three Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges Yunbi, Dohonghua or Tuanbao cease operations?" }, { "id": "M1319", "original": "Will one of Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election?", "negated": "Will neither Kamala Harris nor Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election?" }, { "id": "G451", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M65", "original": "By Dec. 31, 2018, will Andrea Rossi/Leonardo/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy have produced fairly convincing evidence (> 50% credence) that their new technology that generates substantial excess heat relative to electrical and chemical inputs?", "negated": "By Dec. 31, 2018, will Andrea Rossi/Leonardo/Industrial Heat and Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy have failed to produce fairly convincing evidence (> 50% credence) that their new technology that generates substantial excess heat relative to electrical and chemical inputs?" }, { "id": "M1688", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will Russia not invade or annex all or part of Belarus?" }, { "id": "G1787", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara cease to be the president of Ivory Coast?", "negated": "Until 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara continue to be the president of Ivory Coast?" }, { "id": "G1182", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M1046", "original": "Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics?", "negated": "Will Michael Phelps not come out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics?" }, { "id": "M4425", "original": "Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will Israel fail to annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M252", "original": "By beginning of 2019, will an independent group publish or post to the archive a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?", "negated": "By beginning of 2019, will no independent group publish or post to the archive a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?" }, { "id": "M581", "original": "Will the month with the highest interest in Veganism in 2018 have a interest at least 25% greater than that of the month with the highest interest in 2017?", "negated": "Will the month with the highest interest in Veganism in 2018 not have a interest at least 25% greater than that of the month with the highest interest in 2017?" }, { "id": "G1232", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G1551", "original": "Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?", "negated": "Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty not begin before 1 October 2020?" }, { "id": "G1214", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) vote in favor of granting a waiver petition [GN Docket No. 18-357] to allow for the further deployment of Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) technology?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) not vote in favor of granting a waiver petition [GN Docket No. 18-357] to allow for the further deployment of Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) technology?" }, { "id": "G233", "original": "Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will the EU not lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "M5734", "original": "Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will the US Senate Majority Leader not be a Republican on February 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "G295", "original": "Will the book \"Superforecasting\" be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017?", "negated": "Will the book \"Superforecasting\" not be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G1008", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "G984", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "G799", "original": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities?", "negated": "Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there not be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities?" }, { "id": "G24", "original": "Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?", "negated": "Will the US federal-funds rate not be increased before the end of the year [2015]?" }, { "id": "M215", "original": "What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?", "negated": "What is the opposite of the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?" }, { "id": "G831", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "M1602", "original": "Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?", "negated": "Will no citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?" }, { "id": "G1688", "original": "Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "negated": "Will President Trump's approval rating be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?" }, { "id": "G1491", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "By 1 January 2021, will there be no lethal confrontations between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M1365", "original": "Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?", "negated": "Before 8 September 2018, will the UK not request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?" }, { "id": "M549", "original": "Between September 15, 2017 and December 30, 2018, will an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure knock out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?", "negated": "Between September 15, 2017 and December 30, 2018, will there not be an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure which knocks out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?" }, { "id": "M4516", "original": "Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?", "negated": "Will California Senate Bill 902 not be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?" }, { "id": "G907", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M202", "original": "As of May 1, 2016, will the Metaculus prediction engine finally own the first page of Google search results?", "negated": "As of May 1, 2016, will the Metaculus prediction engine still not own the first page of Google search results?" }, { "id": "G188", "original": "Will members of Sudan's military or paramilitary attempt to remove Omar al-Bashir as President of Sudan before 1 May 2017?", "negated": "Will members of Sudan's military or paramilitary not attempt to remove Omar al-Bashir as President of Sudan before 1 May 2017?" }, { "id": "G16", "original": "Will the book “Superforecasting\" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?", "negated": "Will the book “Superforecasting\" (2015) fail to be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?" }, { "id": "M154", "original": "Does Proxima have Planets?", "negated": "Does Proxima not have Planets?" }, { "id": "G1663", "original": "Will Israel's Knesset pass a bill to annex and/or apply sovereignty over any West Bank territory before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Israel's Knesset not pass a bill to annex and/or apply sovereignty over any West Bank territory before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "M1013", "original": "Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?", "negated": "Will Benoit Lecomte not successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?" }, { "id": "M233", "original": "By start of 2017, will the NIF announce plans to attempt a laser shot at a fusion pellet with the intent of achieving a positive net energy gain?", "negated": "By start of 2017, will the NIF not announce plans to attempt a laser shot at a fusion pellet with the intent of achieving a positive net energy gain?" }, { "id": "G27", "original": "Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?", "negated": "Will the Iranian Parliament not approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?" }, { "id": "M259", "original": "Will Elizabeth Warren be Hillary Clinton's choice for VP?", "negated": "Will someone other than Elizabeth Warren be Hillary Clinton's choice for VP?" }, { "id": "G994", "original": "Before 1 July 2019, will Daniel Ortega cease to be president of Nicaragua?", "negated": "Until 1 July 2019, will Daniel Ortega continue to be president of Nicaragua?" }, { "id": "G184", "original": "Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?", "negated": "Will Toyota sell or lease less than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?" }, { "id": "M652", "original": "Will Digiconomist's estimate of Bitcoin's energy consumption reach 100 TWh/yr prior to 2019?", "negated": "Will Digiconomist's estimate of Bitcoin's energy consumption not reach 100 TWh/yr prior to 2019?" }, { "id": "G1577", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will Cruise Automation launch a commercial ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will Cruise Automation fail to launch a commercial ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?" }, { "id": "G563", "original": "Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?", "negated": "Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict not exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?" }, { "id": "M241", "original": "By the end of 2017, will a human head transplant operation be performed?", "negated": "By the end of 2017, will there not be a human head transplant operation which is performed?" }, { "id": "M207", "original": "By mid-2017, will a computer AI system enter a competition and win a prize of monetary value more than 500 USD in art, literature or music?", "negated": "By mid-2017, will a computer AI system not enter a competition or win a prize of monetary value more than 500 USD in art, literature or music?" }, { "id": "G519", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M5354", "original": "Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?", "negated": "Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) not become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?" }, { "id": "G548", "original": "Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?", "negated": "Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record no events perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?" }, { "id": "G29", "original": "Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?", "negated": "Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT fail to be lifted before 1 August 2016?" }, { "id": "G926", "original": "Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?", "negated": "Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close above $200 on 29 June 2018?" }, { "id": "G270", "original": "Will Egypt's GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?", "negated": "Will Egypt's GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year not equal or exceed 5%?" }, { "id": "G462", "original": "Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?", "negated": "Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum fail?" }, { "id": "M205", "original": "By the end of 2016 will Wikileaks get hold of the data and publish it directly to the public in a searchable format, as Wikileaks published \"Cablegate\" and the Hillary Clinton Email Archive?", "negated": "By the end of 2016 will Wikileaks not get hold of the data and publish it directly to the public in a searchable format, as Wikileaks published \"Cablegate\" and the Hillary Clinton Email Archive?" }, { "id": "G1826", "original": "Before 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court hear oral arguments in a case related to any state's 2020 presidential election results?", "negated": "Before 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court not hear any oral arguments in a case related to any state's 2020 presidential election results?" }, { "id": "G1638", "original": "Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 be canceled or postponed?", "negated": "Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 not be canceled or postponed?" }, { "id": "M1424", "original": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2020 be more than 1.5 times the total interest in 2017?", "negated": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2020 be less than 1.5 times the total interest in 2017?" }, { "id": "G979", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "M1318", "original": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?", "negated": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice not be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?" }, { "id": "G511", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "G569", "original": "Before 7 September 2017, will Colin Kaepernick be signed by an NFL team?", "negated": "By 7 September 2017, will Colin Kaepernick not be signed by an NFL team?" }, { "id": "M496", "original": "Over the next 50 questions to resolve, will the Metaculus prediction do better than the best of the community?", "negated": "Over the next 50 questions to resolve, will the Metaculus prediction do no better than the best of the community?" }, { "id": "G137", "original": "Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?", "negated": "Will the US or the UN not impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?" }, { "id": "G704", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani not cease to be president of Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "G55", "original": "Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?", "negated": "Will Malaysia not impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?" }, { "id": "G470", "original": "Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?" }, { "id": "M274", "original": "Prior to Dec 31, 2017, will a transiting extrasolar planet orbiting a star or brown dwarf within 5 parsecs be announced in the peer-reviewed astronomical literature?", "negated": "Prior to Dec 31, 2017, will a transiting extrasolar planet orbiting a star or brown dwarf within 5 parsecs not be announced in the peer-reviewed astronomical literature?" }, { "id": "M1412", "original": "Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?", "negated": "Will Jordan Peterson not endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?" }, { "id": "G491", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act?", "negated": "By 1 January 2018, will the FCC continue to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act?" }, { "id": "M1010", "original": "Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?", "negated": "Will a new US Supreme Court Justice not be approved in 2018?" }, { "id": "M5342", "original": "Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "negated": "Will Trump not transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?" }, { "id": "G1099", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will Tesla not release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?" }, { "id": "G520", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will there not be an armed group from Turkey which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "G375", "original": "Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?", "negated": "Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance not be signed before 30 April 2017?" }, { "id": "M3900", "original": "Will the United States experience an incident of a massive riot in 2020?", "negated": "Will the United States experience no incident of a massive riot in 2020?" }, { "id": "M467", "original": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "negated": "Will no consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?" }, { "id": "G1800", "original": "Before 5 January 2021, will Vice President Mike Pence cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court?", "negated": "Before 5 January 2021, will Vice President Mike Pence not cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court?" }, { "id": "M3145", "original": "If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?", "negated": "If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate not take the referral to a vote?" }, { "id": "M1004", "original": "Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?", "negated": "Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) not bite a big company?" }, { "id": "M421", "original": "Will the European Parliament pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions, in 2017?", "negated": "Will the European Parliament not pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions, in 2017?" }, { "id": "M470", "original": "Will the team of five humans defeat AlphaGo in the Future of Go Summit in May 2017?", "negated": "Will AlphaGo defeat the team of five humans in the Future of Go Summit in May 2017?" }, { "id": "M577", "original": "Will the total market capitalization of the Segwit2x side of the fork, in dollars, exceed the capitalization of the original side on Dec. 1?", "negated": "Will the total market capitalization of the Segwit2x side of the fork, in dollars, fail to exceed the capitalization of the original side on Dec. 1?" }, { "id": "G210", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M322", "original": "Will language loss rates increase by the end of the decade?", "negated": "Will language loss rates not increase by the end of the decade?" }, { "id": "G1130", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will Velodyne announce the release of a LiDAR unit with a maximum range of 400 meters or more?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will Velodyne not announce the release of a LiDAR unit with a maximum range of 400 meters or more?" }, { "id": "M5777", "original": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?", "negated": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine not turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?" }, { "id": "M497", "original": "Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller?", "negated": "Will Trump not try to fire Mueller?" }, { "id": "G1098", "original": "Will Justin Trudeau cease to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election?", "negated": "Will Justin Trudeau continue to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election?" }, { "id": "M5554", "original": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "negated": "Will Apple not close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?" }, { "id": "G615", "original": "Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Zimbabwe in October 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any civilian fatalities in Zimbabwe in October 2017?" }, { "id": "M559", "original": "On December 1, will it be possible to take an Uber between generic pairs of points in London using Uber's app?", "negated": "On December 1, will it be impossible to take an Uber between generic pairs of points in London using Uber's app?" }, { "id": "G840", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "G352", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump host the other for an official bilateral visit before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will neither Vladimir Putin nor Donald Trump host the other for an official bilateral visit before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "M4253", "original": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?", "negated": "Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. not fall below 5,000 on neither the 7-day period ending on May 2nd nor the 7-day period ending on May 9th?" }, { "id": "G889", "original": "Will Nathan Chen win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?", "negated": "Will Nathan Chen not win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?" }, { "id": "G1012", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "M5448", "original": "Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?", "negated": "Will Democrats fail to win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?" }, { "id": "G1080", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "G187", "original": "Will annual sales of electric vehicles in China reach 500,000 in 2016?", "negated": "Will annual sales of electric vehicles in China not reach 500,000 in 2016?" }, { "id": "M10143", "original": "Will the U.S. Congress pass into law a cyber incident reporting act for entities that own or operate critical infrastructure before June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Congress fail to pass into law a cyber incident reporting act for entities that own or operate critical infrastructure before June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G158", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M3607", "original": "Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?", "negated": "Will Michael Bloomberg not emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?" }, { "id": "M4206", "original": "Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020?", "negated": "Will Art Basel not occur on September 17 to September 20 2020?" }, { "id": "M3745", "original": "Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will the FDA not authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "G96", "original": "Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?", "negated": "Before April 2016, will neither the French Army nor Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?" }, { "id": "M139", "original": "Will there be more novel new drugs approved by the FDA in 2016 than in 2015?", "negated": "Will there be fewer novel new drugs approved by the FDA in 2016 than in 2015?" }, { "id": "G628", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not be an armed group from Ethiopia which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "M10121", "original": "Will Russia purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?" }, { "id": "M3912", "original": "If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?", "negated": "If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 be below 51,336?" }, { "id": "M191", "original": "Will the Insight Mars probe land safely on the Martian surface by January 1st, 2019?", "negated": "Will the Insight Mars probe not land safely on the Martian surface by January 1st, 2019?" }, { "id": "M2753", "original": "Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?", "negated": "Will the United States cease to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?" }, { "id": "M5511", "original": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "negated": "Will AMC Theatres not file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?" }, { "id": "M3374", "original": "Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received it in the 2014 index for its recognition of animal sentience by the end 2022?", "negated": "Will the Animal Protection Index award neither the USA nor China with a higher grade than received it in the 2014 index for its recognition of animal sentience by the end 2022?" }, { "id": "G222", "original": "Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?", "negated": "By 2018, will Russia not officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?" }, { "id": "G460", "original": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's August 2017 presidential election?", "negated": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta lose Kenya's August 2017 presidential election?" }, { "id": "G473", "original": "Will the U.S. federal debt ceiling be raised or suspended before 1 December 2017?", "negated": "Will the U.S. federal debt ceiling not be raised or suspended before 1 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M210", "original": "Will a majot component of the \"Beamed Propulsion\" spacecraft plan change by June 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will the \"Beamed Propulsion\" spacecraft plan mainly stay the same until June 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "M102", "original": "Between March 1 and September 1, 2016, will an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure knock out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?", "negated": "Between March 1 and September 1, 2016, will there not be an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure which knocks out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?" }, { "id": "M11", "original": "Will the experimental Wendelstein 7-X stellarator fusion device be a success?", "negated": "Will the experimental Wendelstein 7-X stellarator fusion device be a failure?" }, { "id": "M4868", "original": "Before August 20 2020, will Joe Biden or the Biden campaign confirm that Senator Kamala Harris has been selected as Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election, and that she has accepted the offer?", "negated": "Before August 20 2020, will Joe Biden or the Biden campaign not confirm that Senator Kamala Harris has been selected as Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election, and that she has accepted the offer?" }, { "id": "G129", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M140", "original": "Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?", "negated": "Will AirBnB will not go public before 2019?" }, { "id": "G19", "original": "Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will Iran not host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "M389", "original": "Between Dec 1, 2016 and Dec 1, 2017, will an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure knock out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?", "negated": "Between Dec 1, 2016 and Dec 1, 2017, will there not be an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure which knocks out power for more than 30% of residents in one of the ten most populous U.S. cities for a period of 72 hours or more?" }, { "id": "M1866", "original": "Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?", "negated": "Will there be no rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?" }, { "id": "M150", "original": "Will the FBI have access to the information on the iphone in question by March 30, 2016?", "negated": "Will the FBI not have access to the information on the iphone in question by March 30, 2016?" }, { "id": "M3724", "original": "Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will no Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M3699", "original": "Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators?", "negated": "Within every calendar month in 2020, will fewer than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators?" }, { "id": "G349", "original": "Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong?", "negated": "Will Leung Chun-ying lose the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong?" }, { "id": "G367", "original": "Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss the peace process before 1 June 2017?", "negated": "Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not meet to discuss the peace process before 1 June 2017?" }, { "id": "G969", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M5356", "original": "Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?", "negated": "Will neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?" }, { "id": "G1006", "original": "In Gundy v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress' delegation of authority to the attorney general in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) violates the nondelegation doctrine?", "negated": "In Gundy v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress' delegation of authority to the attorney general in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) does not violate the nondelegation doctrine?" }, { "id": "M3671", "original": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?", "negated": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg did not manipulate 2020 election prediction markets?" }, { "id": "G261", "original": "Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?", "negated": "Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will no US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?" }, { "id": "G568", "original": "Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Senegal during September 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record any riot/protest events in Senegal during September 2017?" }, { "id": "G1171", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "G609", "original": "Will Iran execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?", "negated": "Will Iran not execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?" }, { "id": "G389", "original": "Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017?", "negated": "Will Leopoldo Lopez not be released from prison before 1 July 2017?" }, { "id": "G512", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will no armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?" }, { "id": "G211", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G900", "original": "Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "M1613", "original": "Will the closing price of Facebook's shares on March 4th 2019 be lower than the closing price on December 3rd 2018?", "negated": "Will the closing price of Facebook's shares on March 4th 2019 be higher than the closing price on December 3rd 2018?" }, { "id": "M1699", "original": "Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?", "negated": "Will Elizabeth Warren not be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?" }, { "id": "G625", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?" }, { "id": "M6104", "original": "Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?", "negated": "Will <3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?" }, { "id": "G80", "original": "Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?", "negated": "By 1 May 2016, will Britain not set a date for a referendum on EU membership?" }, { "id": "M287", "original": "Will participation in the 2016 Globe at Night campaign (which will be announced on the Globe at Night Real-time Interactive Infographic) be greater than that of 2015?", "negated": "Will participation in the 2016 Globe at Night campaign (which will be announced on the Globe at Night Real-time Interactive Infographic) be less than that of 2015?" }, { "id": "M257", "original": "By 2018 will an event occur in which a credible media source reports that a major medical journal has declined to publish an otherwise-publishable scientific paper on human pathogens due to concerns that it constitutes an information hazard?", "negated": "By 2018 will there not be an event in which a credible media source reports that a major medical journal has declined to publish an otherwise-publishable scientific paper on human pathogens due to concerns that it constitutes an information hazard?" }, { "id": "M4771", "original": "Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit at the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will there not be a \"no-deal\" Brexit at the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M560", "original": "Will Trump go two more months until December 1, 2017 without uttering the words \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency\"?", "negated": "Will Trump not go two more months until December 1, 2017 without uttering the words \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency\"?" }, { "id": "M1368", "original": "Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q by September 16th?", "negated": " Will Coleman Rogers not be revealed as Q by September 16th?" }, { "id": "G933", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel?", "negated": "By 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller continue to be Special Counsel?" }, { "id": "M220", "original": "Will the US be on the CDC's list of counties in which Zika is being actively transmitted by the end of August 2016?", "negated": "Will the US not be on the CDC's list of counties in which Zika is being actively transmitted by the end of August 2016?" }, { "id": "G457", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G458", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "M4565", "original": "Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?", "negated": "Will fewer than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?" }, { "id": "M5271", "original": "Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?", "negated": "Will George W. Bush not endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?" }, { "id": "G978", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will there exist an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?" }, { "id": "M4908", "original": "If the Republican candidate wins the electoral college in 2020, will they lose the popular vote?", "negated": "If the Republican candidate wins the electoral college in 2020, will they win the popular vote?" }, { "id": "M3440", "original": "Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?", "negated": "Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after more than one round of voting?" }, { "id": "G1340", "original": "Between 11 October 2019 and 12 June 2020, will the Hong Kong dollar close above HK$7.8510?", "negated": "Between 11 October 2019 and 12 June 2020, will the Hong Kong dollar close below HK$7.8510?" }, { "id": "M2962", "original": "Will more than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?", "negated": "Will less than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?" }, { "id": "G985", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will there exist an armed group from Yemen which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M383", "original": "Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?", "negated": "Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility not come online as planned in 2018?" }, { "id": "G1795", "original": "Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?", "negated": "Before 1 March 2021, will there be no lethal confrontations at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?" }, { "id": "G299", "original": "Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017?", "negated": "Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership not be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M304", "original": "Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and correctly predict the outcome in every state?", "negated": "Will the 538 model fail to repeat its 2012 success and incorrectly predict the outcome in at least one state?" }, { "id": "M6777", "original": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", "negated": "Will Brazil not have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?" }, { "id": "M357", "original": "Will the discovery by direct observation of a new solar system planet having characteristics substantially similar to those described in the Batygin-Brown paper, be announced in a peer-reviewed paper prior to the Jan. 20, 2017 first anniversary of the Batygin-Brown prediction?", "negated": "Will the discovery by direct observation of a new solar system planet having characteristics substantially similar to those described in the Batygin-Brown paper, not be announced in a peer-reviewed paper prior to the Jan. 20, 2017 first anniversary of the Batygin-Brown prediction?" }, { "id": "M3234", "original": "Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?", "negated": "Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) not have an IPO before 30 November 2019?" }, { "id": "M3401", "original": "Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas gift?", "negated": "Will North Korea send the U.S. a Christmas gift?" }, { "id": "M474", "original": "Will a single political party win an absolute majority in parliament when the votes are finished counted on June 9 ?", "negated": "Will no single political party win an absolute majority in parliament when the votes are finished counted on June 9 ?" }, { "id": "G800", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Qatar announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will Qatar not announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country?" }, { "id": "G175", "original": "Will Haiti hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016?", "negated": "Will Haiti not hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016?" }, { "id": "G896", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will no referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?" }, { "id": "M1668", "original": "When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time be any later than two minutes to midnight?", "negated": "When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time not be any later than two minutes to midnight?" }, { "id": "M1380", "original": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not have entered a recession by July 1, 2020?" }, { "id": "M3487", "original": "Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?", "negated": "Will the average world temperature in 2020 be lower than in 2019?" }, { "id": "M634", "original": "Will Oprah Winfrey change her mind (or perhaps reveal her true intentions) by officially declaring her candidacy for 2020?", "negated": "Will Oprah Winfrey not change her mind (or perhaps not reveal her true intentions) by officially declaring her candidacy for 2020?" }, { "id": "M2946", "original": "Will Pete Buttigieg have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Indiana's primary election?", "negated": "Will Pete Buttigieg not have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Indiana's primary election?" }, { "id": "M4207", "original": "Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?", "negated": "For every calendar month in 2020, will fewer than 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?" }, { "id": "M3756", "original": "Will EA Global: San Francisco 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "negated": "Will EA Global: San Francisco 2020 not be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?" }, { "id": "M179", "original": "Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?", "negated": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by 2020?" }, { "id": "G204", "original": "Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?", "negated": "Will fewer than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?" }, { "id": "G1070", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will there not be an armed group from Yemen which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M1689", "original": "Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump fail to complete his elected term(s) as President?" }, { "id": "M1617", "original": "Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?", "negated": "Will Hillary Clinton not run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?" }, { "id": "M2945", "original": "Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?", "negated": "Will Facebook's Libra initiative not launch by Oct 1st 2020?" }, { "id": "M130", "original": "Will the Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE be awarded to a team by the end of 2017?", "negated": "Will the Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE not be awarded to a team by the end of 2017?" }, { "id": "G1278", "original": "Between 9 August 2019 and 8 September 2019, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?", "negated": "Between 9 August 2019 and 8 September 2019, will anti-government protests in Russia result in fewer than five fatalities?" }, { "id": "M1314", "original": "Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?", "negated": "Will interest in Veganism not decrease prior to 2020?" }, { "id": "G1226", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G174", "original": "Will the European Union suspend any of Poland's membership rights in 2016?", "negated": "Will the European Union not suspend any of Poland's membership rights in 2016?" }, { "id": "G1596", "original": "For any seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be 200,000 or more combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?", "negated": "For every seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be fewer than 200,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?" }, { "id": "M4783", "original": "If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander before July 2021, will it include his surname?", "negated": "If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander before July 2021, will it not include his surname?" }, { "id": "M3630", "original": "Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?" }, { "id": "G541", "original": "Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?", "negated": "Will al-Shabaab not attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?" }, { "id": "G936", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party only nominate Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva for president?" }, { "id": "M529", "original": "Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin and Ethereum not be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017?" }, { "id": "M12", "original": "Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab, by November 15, 2016?", "negated": "Will quantized gravity not soon be tested in the lab?" }, { "id": "M337", "original": "Will the 2017 revision of the UN World Population Prospects project a population peak by 2100 in its most likely scenario?", "negated": "Will the 2017 revision of the UN World Population Prospects not project a population peak by 2100 in its most likely scenario?" }, { "id": "M4918", "original": "Will Alexander Lukashenko remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?", "negated": "Will Alexander Lukashenko not remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?" }, { "id": "G1244", "original": "Between 2 August 2019 and 31 October 2019, will the United Auto Workers (UAW) union go on strike against General Motors (GM)?", "negated": "Between 2 August 2019 and 31 October 2019, will the United Auto Workers (UAW) union not go on strike against General Motors (GM)?" }, { "id": "G378", "original": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?", "negated": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. not give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?" }, { "id": "M3462", "original": "will there be a war between the United States of America and Iran in 2020?", "negated": "Will there not be a war between the United States of America and Iran in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1538", "original": "Will the Democratic Party nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention?", "negated": "Will the Democratic Party not nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention?" }, { "id": "M580", "original": "Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime prior to Tax Day 2018 (April 17)?", "negated": "Will Jared Kushner not be charged with a crime prior to Tax Day 2018 (April 17)?" }, { "id": "G177", "original": "Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "G1670", "original": "Before 26 December 2020, will the Australian government accuse the Chinese government, by name, of being behind the \"copy-paste compromises\" cyberattacks?", "negated": "Before 26 December 2020, will the Australian government not accuse the Chinese government, by name, of being behind the \"copy-paste compromises\" cyberattacks?" }, { "id": "G156", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M934", "original": "Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be a MLB pitcher who throws a perfect game in 2018?" }, { "id": "G381", "original": "Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?", "negated": "Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court not rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?" }, { "id": "M56", "original": "Will a paper be published in a major physical science journal before January 1, 2021 on a DLA accelerator reporting an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter to within 1 sigma?", "negated": "Will there not be a paper be published in a major physical science journal before January 1, 2021 on a DLA accelerator reporting an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter to within 1 sigma?" }, { "id": "G1073", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will there not be an armed group from the Central African Republic which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "G696", "original": "Before 1 April 2018, will General Motors test an autonomous vehicle in New York City?", "negated": "Before 1 April 2018, will General Motors not test an autonomous vehicle in New York City?" }, { "id": "G128", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G148", "original": "Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will Syrian government forces fail to retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "G753", "original": "Will the European Union announce the imposition of a travel ban or seizure of assets of a Venezuelan government official between 30 November and 31 December?", "negated": "Will the European Union not announce the imposition of a travel ban or seizure of assets of a Venezuelan government official between 30 November and 31 December?" }, { "id": "M1643", "original": "At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%?", "negated": "At every point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate not meet 10%?" }, { "id": "M371", "original": "Will a solid metallic hydrogen sample superconduct at room temperature?", "negated": "Will a solid metallic hydrogen sample not superconduct at room temperature?" }, { "id": "M324", "original": "Will age-related macular degeneration be preventable or treatable by 2020?", "negated": "Will age-related macular degeneration not be preventable or treatable by 2020?" }, { "id": "M1417", "original": "Will a recent paper, \"Evidence for Superconductivity at Ambient Temperature and Pressure in Nanostructures\", claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?", "negated": "Will a recent paper, \"Evidence for Superconductivity at Ambient Temperature and Pressure in Nanostructures\", claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity not be published in Nature?" }, { "id": "G161", "original": "Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will Iran not agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "M1369", "original": "Will the 2018 US Midterm elections be hacked?", "negated": "Will the 2018 US Midterm elections not be hacked?" }, { "id": "M6074", "original": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "negated": "Will Netanyahu not remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?" }, { "id": "M4554", "original": "Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?", "negated": "Will one or no entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?" }, { "id": "M4408", "original": "Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?", "negated": "Will Apple not announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?" }, { "id": "G1028", "original": "Will President Trump and Colin Kaepernick meet face-to-face before Super Bowl LIII?", "negated": "Will President Trump and Colin Kaepernick not meet face-to-face before Super Bowl LIII?" }, { "id": "G1221", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "G1655", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will federal criminal charges be filed against any of the Minneapolis police officers involved in the death of George Floyd?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will federal criminal charges not be filed against any of the Minneapolis police officers involved in the death of George Floyd?" }, { "id": "M912", "original": "Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?", "negated": "Will Iran not announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?" }, { "id": "G1820", "original": "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?", "negated": "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha continue to be the prime minister of Thailand by 23 April 2021?" }, { "id": "G1229", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will no armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "G10", "original": "Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?", "negated": "Will Russia not officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?" }, { "id": "M2567", "original": "By end of 2019, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?", "negated": "By end of 2019, will no published papers or pre-prints describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute less than operations?" }, { "id": "G450", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will there not be an armed group from Burundi which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?" }, { "id": "G465", "original": "Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?", "negated": "Before 1 April 2018, will India not announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?" }, { "id": "G374", "original": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?", "negated": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from none of the countries designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?" }, { "id": "M3590", "original": "By end of 2020, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?", "negated": "By end of 2020, will there not be a published paper or pre-print which describes an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?" }, { "id": "M1639", "original": "Will the British Pound trade at equal to or less than $1.000 at any time before January 1, 2020?", "negated": "Will the British Pound trade at greater than $1.000 at any time before January 1, 2020?" }, { "id": "G502", "original": "Will Apple's end-of-day market capitalization exceed $1 trillion before 1 January 2018?", "negated": "Will Apple's end-of-day market capitalization not exceed $1 trillion before 1 January 2018?" }, { "id": "M8751", "original": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this be due to the spread of the Omicron variant?", "negated": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this be due to something other than the spread of the Omicron variant?" }, { "id": "G423", "original": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting?", "negated": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee decide not to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting?" }, { "id": "M479", "original": "By January 2020, will US Federal regulations be implemented that restrict the operation of trucks without a human operator on board?", "negated": "By January 2020, will no US Federal regulations be implemented that restrict the operation of trucks with a human operator on board?" }, { "id": "M5986", "original": "Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?", "negated": "Will a Glastonbury Festival not take place in 2021?" }, { "id": "G655", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front participate in official negotiations over Western Sahara?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front not participate in official negotiations over Western Sahara?" }, { "id": "G113", "original": "Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will there be no publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "G172", "original": "Will the Department of Justice indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016?", "negated": "Will the Department of Justice not indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016?" }, { "id": "G1115", "original": "Will the Supreme Court rule that any part of either North Carolina's or Maryland's congressional district maps is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court rule that no part of either North Carolina's or Maryland's congressional district maps is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?" }, { "id": "M1684", "original": "At 12:00 AM GMT March 1st 2019, will Mark Zuckerberg be the CEO of Facebook, Inc.?", "negated": "At 12:00 AM GMT March 1st 2019, will Mark Zuckerberg not be the CEO of Facebook, Inc.?" }, { "id": "G49", "original": "Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?", "negated": "Will there not be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?" }, { "id": "G686", "original": "Before 21 November 2017, will Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), be found?", "negated": "Before 21 November 2017, will Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), not be found?" }, { "id": "M4619", "original": "Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?", "negated": "Will the border conflict between India and China not result in a death before 2021?" }, { "id": "M620", "original": "During 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which U.F.O.s or associated phenomena (within Earth's Hill Sphere) constitute a substantial part of the narrative?", "negated": "During 2018, will the New York Times not publish a news story in which U.F.O.s or associated phenomena (within Earth's Hill Sphere) constitute a substantial part of the narrative?" }, { "id": "M1451", "original": "Will one BTC be at or above 12000 USD at least at one point between 20th September 2018 and 31st December 2018 on coinmarketcap.com?", "negated": "Will one BTC be below 12000 USD at all points between 20th September 2018 and 31st December 2018 on coinmarketcap.com?" }, { "id": "G1279", "original": "Between 12 August 2019 and 30 November 2019, will Russia and Iran conduct any joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz?", "negated": "Between 12 August 2019 and 30 November 2019, will Russia and Iran not conduct any joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz?" }, { "id": "M401", "original": "Will the top entrant in the 2018 Winograd challenge score 75% or more?", "negated": "Will the top entrant in the 2018 Winograd challenge score less than 75%?" }, { "id": "M4097", "original": "Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?", "negated": "Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. not complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?" }, { "id": "G924", "original": "Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Dean Heller (R-NV) fail to be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "M4838", "original": "Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?", "negated": "Will there be no deadly conflicts in the South China Sea in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1127", "original": "Before 1 August 2019, will Citgo Petroleum Corporation or any of its wholly-owned subsidiaries (Citgo) file for bankruptcy protection in the United States?
", "negated": "Before 1 August 2019, will none of Citgo Petroleum Corporation or any of its wholly-owned subsidiaries (Citgo) file for bankruptcy protection in the United States?" }, { "id": "M1420", "original": "Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019?", "negated": "Will Apple's market cap not exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019?" }, { "id": "G1026", "original": "In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court overrule the \"separate sovereign\" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?", "negated": "In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court not overrule the \"separate sovereign\" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?" }, { "id": "G183", "original": "In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?", "negated": "In 2016 will none of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?" }, { "id": "M1329", "original": "Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?", "negated": "Will the latest Ebola outbreak fail to be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?" }, { "id": "M232", "original": "Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?", "negated": "Will Julian Assange not still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?" }, { "id": "M638", "original": "Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will Rosenstein not still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "G76", "original": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will North Korea not conduct any nuclear tests before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M18", "original": "Will Rossi's 1MW \"E-Cat\" tests lead to continued significant financial investment?", "negated": "Will Rossi's 1MW \"E-Cat\" tests not lead to continued significant financial investment?" }, { "id": "G226", "original": "Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college?", "negated": "Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election not win the electoral college?" }, { "id": "M5032", "original": "Before 1 February 2021, will Apple's market cap fall below $1 trillion?", "negated": "Before 1 February 2021, will Apple's market cap not fall below $1 trillion?" }, { "id": "M212", "original": "To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?", "negated": "Do Potentially Habitable Planets not exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?" }, { "id": "M4723", "original": "Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore's 2020 general election?", "negated": "Will an opposition party not win a new GRC in Singapore's 2020 general election?" }, { "id": "M2601", "original": "Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?", "negated": "Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK not experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?" }, { "id": "M601", "original": "Will Tesla's market cap on the 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC be less than half of its market cap on the 31st of December 2017 at 11:59:59 PM UTC?", "negated": "Will Tesla's market cap on the 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC be greater than half of its market cap on the 31st of December 2017 at 11:59:59 PM UTC?" }, { "id": "M5844", "original": "Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?", "negated": "Will the results of the Electoral College not be formally challenged in the House in 2021?" }, { "id": "M752", "original": "Will Doug Ford be elected the next Premier of Ontario in the upcoming election?", "negated": "Will Doug Ford not be elected the next Premier of Ontario in the upcoming election?" }, { "id": "G829", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?" }, { "id": "M195", "original": "Will the next outbreak of Ebola be better contained than the last?", "negated": "Will the next outbreak of Ebola be worse contained than the last?" }, { "id": "M16", "original": "Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time?", "negated": "Is Graph Isomorphism not solvable in Polynomial Time?" }, { "id": "M518", "original": "Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for \"russia\" by 2019?", "negated": "Will there not be a new all-time peak in google trends for \"russia\" by 2019?" }, { "id": "M345", "original": "Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?", "negated": "Will a poker bot fail to beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?" }, { "id": "M5752", "original": "Will the Coup-o-meter enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by Februrary 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will the Coup-o-meter not enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by Februrary 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "G74", "original": "Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will neither the Palestinian Authority nor Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "M3255", "original": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M, in 2019 USD?", "negated": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups be less than $100M, in 2019 USD?" }, { "id": "M430", "original": "Will Brexit proceed as planned, with notice served to the European Council under Article 50, by the end of March 2017?", "negated": "Will Brexit not proceed as planned, with notice served to the European Council under Article 50, by the end of March 2017?" }, { "id": "M1075", "original": "Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?", "negated": "Before 8 September 2018, will none of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?" }, { "id": "M3283", "original": "By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?", "negated": "By November 2020 will no prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?" }, { "id": "G1394", "original": "Will Imran Khan cease to be prime minister of Pakistan before 8 December 2019?", "negated": "Will Imran Khan continue to be prime minister of Pakistan by 8 December 2019?" }, { "id": "M4769", "original": "In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?", "negated": "In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West not win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?" }, { "id": "M264", "original": "By December 31, 2019, will the New York Times publish an article suggesting that reasonable scientific evidence for an extraterrestrial civilization has been found?", "negated": "By December 31, 2019, will the New York Times not publish an article suggesting that reasonable scientific evidence for an extraterrestrial civilization has been found?" }, { "id": "G303", "original": "Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2017, will the US not impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?" }, { "id": "G1201", "original": "Before 31 August 2019, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 4.30%?", "negated": "Before 31 August 2019, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. not fall below 4.30%?" }, { "id": "M501", "original": "Will Sci-Hub continue to offer free access to scholarly articles for the next year?", "negated": "Will Sci-Hub cease to offer free access to scholarly articles for the next year?" }, { "id": "M4766", "original": "Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases not rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M278", "original": "By June 1, 2018, will a published paper appear in either Physical Review D, JHEP, JCAP, or Nature discussing (as a central topic of the paper) potentially observable signatures that we exist in a simulated reality?", "negated": "By June 1, 2018, will there not be a published paper in either Physical Review D, JHEP, JCAP, or Nature discussing (as a central topic of the paper) potentially observable signatures that we exist in a simulated reality." }, { "id": "G1230", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will there not be an armed group from Pakistan which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "G1665", "original": "Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?", "negated": "Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?" }, { "id": "G904", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will either house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2019, will neither house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs?" }, { "id": "G157", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M1597", "original": "Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?", "negated": "Will the VIX Index not print above 50 in 2019?" }, { "id": "M209", "original": "To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?", "negated": "Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system not occur by 2018?" }, { "id": "G427", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission find Google liable in an antitrust case?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission not find Google liable in an antitrust case?" }, { "id": "G755", "original": "Will a framework for an end to the Syrian conflict be agreed upon by 31 December 2017?", "negated": "Will a framework for an end to the Syrian conflict not be agreed upon by 31 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M2936", "original": "Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?", "negated": "Will Boeing not fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?" }, { "id": "G798", "original": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Myanmar by 31 December 2017?", "negated": "Will the UN Security Council not adopt a resolution concerning Myanmar by 31 December 2017?" }, { "id": "G54", "original": "Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?", "negated": "Will NATO not invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M887", "original": "Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment pass?", "negated": "Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment fail?" }, { "id": "G281", "original": "Will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan before 1 July 2017?", "negated": "Will Ashraf Ghani continue to be president of Afghanistan by 1 July 2017?" }, { "id": "G621", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not be an armed group from Turkey which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?" }, { "id": "M544", "original": "Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value?", "negated": "Will a Bitcoin's dollar value fail to exceed the Nasdaq Index value?" }, { "id": "M3896", "original": "Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?", "negated": "Will most UK schools not reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?" }, { "id": "G827", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will there not be an armed group from Yemen which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "G1298", "original": "Between 20 September 2019 and 6 December 2019, will the closing price for Brent crude oil exceed $75.00, according to Bloomberg?", "negated": "Between 20 September 2019 and 6 December 2019, will the closing price for Brent crude oil not exceed $75.00, according to Bloomberg?" }, { "id": "G986", "original": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018?", "negated": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice fail to be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018?" }, { "id": "M5047", "original": "Will there be another incident of an authentic leaked Trump tape that upsets the election this time around in 2020?", "negated": "Will there not be another incident of an authentic leaked Trump tape that upsets the election this time around in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1595", "original": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution not be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?" }, { "id": "G632", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not be an armed group from Bangladesh which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G307", "original": "Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?", "negated": "Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be lower in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?" }, { "id": "G757", "original": "Will a lethal confrontation involving national military forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran result in at least one fatality for either side in December 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation involving national military forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran result in at least one fatality for either side in December 2017?" }, { "id": "M6512", "original": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home Spring 2021?", "negated": "Will the University of Pennsylvania not send undergraduates back home Spring 2021?" }, { "id": "G1178", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will there not be an armed group from Bangladesh which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "G459", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will there not be an armed group from the Philippines which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G150", "original": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?", "negated": "Will no new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?" }, { "id": "M110", "original": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "negated": "Will no consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?" }, { "id": "G461", "original": "Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism not approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece?" }, { "id": "G1218", "original": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will there not be an armed group from Yemen which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M393", "original": "Will a takeover of Pebble by Fitbit be finalized and approved before the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will a takeover of Pebble by Fitbit not be finalized and approved before the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "M2573", "original": "Will the 2019 Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives before it is declared over by the WHO?", "negated": "Will the 2019 Ebola outbreak claim fewer than 1000 lives before it is declared over by the WHO?" }, { "id": "M3688", "original": "Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?", "negated": "Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics not be cancelled due to COVID-19?" }, { "id": "G447", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will there not be an armed group from Myanmar which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G480", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will it not be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?" }, { "id": "M2934", "original": "Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?", "negated": "Before 30 November 2019, will no Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?" }, { "id": "M107", "original": "Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March of 2016?", "negated": "Will the advanced LIGO team not announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March of 2016?" }, { "id": "C67", "original": "Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Justice Department not file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?" }, { "id": "M6177", "original": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump still be President after the 2021/01/20 inauguration?" }, { "id": "G237", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will no other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?" }, { "id": "G967", "original": "Before 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt cease to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency?", "negated": "By 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt continue to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency?" }, { "id": "M1665", "original": "before 1 January 2021, will any rocket stage or complete rocket be used to successfully complete its role in delivering any payload to orbit or an Earth-escape trajectory, land successfully on Earth (whether on land or at sea) and then re-flown on another orbital or Earth-escape mission, with the second liftoff taking place within 24 hours of liftoff of the first mission, and with the rocket or rocket stage landing successfully a second time?", "negated": "before 1 January 2021, will all rocket stage or complete rocket fail to be used to successfully complete its role in delivering any payload to orbit or an Earth-escape trajectory, land successfully on Earth (whether on land or at sea) and then re-flown on another orbital or Earth-escape mission, with the second liftoff taking place within 24 hours of liftoff of the first mission, and with the rocket or rocket stage landing successfully a second time?" }, { "id": "G1180", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will there not be an armed group from the Philippines which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G195", "original": "Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program be implemented prior to inauguration day?", "negated": "Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program fail to be implemented prior to inauguration day?" }, { "id": "G618", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not be an armed group from Iraq which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "G1517", "original": "Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?", "negated": "Will Bernie Sanders not win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?" }, { "id": "M282", "original": "Will Edward Snowden tweet about Pokemon Go by July 26?", "negated": "Will Edward Snowden not tweet about Pokemon Go by July 26?" }, { "id": "G112", "original": "Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?", "negated": "Will Russia not conduct any naval exercises in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?" }, { "id": "G280", "original": "Will more than 1 million tourists visit Egypt in October 2016?", "negated": "Will less than 1 million tourists visit Egypt in October 2016?" }, { "id": "M378", "original": "On January 10, 2017, will the paper \"Protophobic Fifth-Force Interpretation of the Observed Anomaly in Be Nuclear Transition\" by Feng et al. have 26 or more citations?", "negated": "On January 10, 2017, will the paper \"Protophobic Fifth-Force Interpretation of the Observed Anomaly in Be Nuclear Transition\" by Feng et al. have less than 26 citations?" }, { "id": "G671", "original": "Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?", "negated": "Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will none of Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?" }, { "id": "G649", "original": "Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will any World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland?", "negated": "Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will no World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland?" }, { "id": "M4682", "original": "Will the violence continue, and result in at least 500 Indian soldier and/or civilian deaths due to conflicts with the Chinese military along the border?", "negated": "Will the violence not continue, and not result in at least 500 Indian soldier and/or civilian deaths due to conflicts with the Chinese military along the border?" }, { "id": "G771", "original": "Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017?", "negated": "Will Iran not launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M1601", "original": "Will poker player Alati win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?", "negated": "Will poker player Alati lose a $100K bet by not staying in a dark room for 30 days?" }, { "id": "M44", "original": "By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?", "negated": "By the end of 2017 will there not be a gene drive targeting malaria initiated?" }, { "id": "G168", "original": "Will any other US state adopt California's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will no other US state adopt California's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G1416", "original": "Before 1 May 2020, will China reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans?", "negated": "Before 1 May 2020, will China not reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans?" }, { "id": "M3677", "original": "If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?", "negated": "If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates fail to win the nomination?" }, { "id": "G1236", "original": "Between 5 July 2019 and 31 December 2019, will McDonald's announce that it will offer an alternative protein vegetarian burger in the United States?", "negated": "Between 5 July 2019 and 31 December 2019, will McDonald's not announce that it will offer an alternative protein vegetarian burger in the United States?" }, { "id": "M6172", "original": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?", "negated": "Will President Trump not be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?" }, { "id": "M416", "original": "Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?", "negated": "Will no human beat AlphaGo in 2017?" }, { "id": "M3501", "original": "Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?", "negated": "Will there not be a third-party candidate who gets more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?" }, { "id": "G1174", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will there not be an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "G583", "original": "Before 15 November 2017, will the WTO establish a dispute settlement panel for any of Qatar's complaints against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain?", "negated": "Before 15 November 2017, will the WTO not establish a dispute settlement panel for any of Qatar's complaints against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain?" }, { "id": "M10602", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "M201", "original": "Trump to get told \"You're Fired!\"?", "negated": "Trump to not get told \"You're Fired!\" ?" }, { "id": "M2706", "original": "Will Algeria hold Presidential Elections in 2019?", "negated": "Will Algeria not hold Presidential Elections in 2019?" }, { "id": "G217", "original": "Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?", "negated": "Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council not approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?" }, { "id": "G1398", "original": "Will Iraq hold parliamentary elections before 1 December 2020?", "negated": "Will Iraq not hold parliamentary elections before 1 December 2020?" }, { "id": "G1172", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will there not be an armed group from Mali which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "G645", "original": "Before 27 December 2017, will Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission?", "negated": "Before 27 December 2017, will none of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission?" }, { "id": "M1443", "original": "Will Pope Francis resign by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will Pope Francis not resign by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M4272", "original": "Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?", "negated": "Will the Metaculus prediction do better than the community prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?" }, { "id": "G413", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will new federal funding be approved for the California High-Speed Rail Authority's \"bullet train\" project?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will new federal funding not be approved for the California High-Speed Rail Authority's \"bullet train\" project?" }, { "id": "G759", "original": "Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017?", "negated": "Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine not be determined before 8 December 2017?" }, { "id": "M3358", "original": "Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong in 2019?", "negated": "Will neither PLA, PAP, nor mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong in 2019?" }, { "id": "G40", "original": "Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?", "negated": "Will there not be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?" }, { "id": "M245", "original": "By June 1st, 2020, will General Fusion heat a plasma to at least 600 at 4:1 compression in their injector subsystem or in a full sized prototype MTF reactor?", "negated": "By June 1st, 2020, will General Fusion not heat a plasma to at least 600 at 4:1 compression in their injector subsystem or in a full sized prototype MTF reactor?" }, { "id": "M435", "original": "Will armed conflict begin in the South China Sea before 2019?", "negated": "Will no armed conflict begin in the South China Sea before 2019?" }, { "id": "G629", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will there not be an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" }, { "id": "G910", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will there not be an armed group from Bangladesh which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "M1615", "original": "Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?", "negated": "Will there not be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?" }, { "id": "G1832", "original": "Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?", "negated": "Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) not officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?" }, { "id": "G36", "original": "Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the \"Serial\" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?", "negated": "Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the \"Serial\" podcast, not be overturned before the end of 2016?" }, { "id": "M43", "original": "Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?", "negated": "Will the SEC not approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?" }, { "id": "G842", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will neither Russia nor the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?" }, { "id": "M467", "original": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "negated": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 fail to emerge this year?" }, { "id": "G886", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will the water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will the water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan fail to meet to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam?" }, { "id": "G973", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will there not be an armed group from Bangladesh which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?" }, { "id": "M126", "original": "Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2016 not be the warmest year on record?" }, { "id": "M4609", "original": "If President Trump loses the 2020 Presidential Election, will he publicly announce between 2020-11-03 and 2021-01-20 (inclusive) that he concedes?", "negated": "If President Trump loses the 2020 Presidential Election, will he not publicly announce between 2020-11-03 and 2021-01-20 (inclusive) that he concedes?" }, { "id": "G837", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will there not be an armed group from the Central African Republic which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "G4", "original": "Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?", "negated": "Will there not be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?" }, { "id": "G231", "original": "Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?", "negated": "Will no disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?" }, { "id": "M10604", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M231", "original": "Will Apple introduce a Virtual Reality or Augmented Reality headset and custom operating system, and sell over a million units before the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will Apple fail to introduce a Virtual Reality or Augmented Reality headset and custom operating system, and sell over a million units before the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "M589", "original": "Will Tesla go bankrupt before 2019?", "negated": "Will Tesla not go bankrupt before 2019?" }, { "id": "M1019", "original": "Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?", "negated": "Will OpenAI's machine system fail to defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?" }, { "id": "M263", "original": "Will the California Drought end in 2017?", "negated": "Will the California Drought not end in 2017?" }, { "id": "M6710", "original": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "negated": "Will any U.S. educator, school staff member, or child care worker not be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?" }, { "id": "G1493", "original": "Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?", "negated": "Will the United States not experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?" }, { "id": "G386", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will none of Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process?" }, { "id": "M6498", "original": "Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?", "negated": "Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle not land successfully?" }, { "id": "M6647", "original": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", "negated": "Will the Substack Slow Boring not exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?" }, { "id": "G1625", "original": "Will the United Arab Emirates (UAE) be ranked higher than 21st in the Global Food Security Index Rankings for 2020?", "negated": "Will the United Arab Emirates (UAE) be ranked lower or equal to 21st in the Global Food Security Index Rankings for 2020?" }, { "id": "G762", "original": "Will the WHO confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017?", "negated": "Will the WHO not confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017?" }, { "id": "M2347", "original": "Before 3 February 2020, the date of the Iowa caucus, will Mitt Romney declare himself a candidate in the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election cycle, in the event that Donald Trump is also a candidate?", "negated": "Before 3 February 2020, the date of the Iowa caucus, will Mitt Romney not declare himself a candidate in the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election cycle, in the event that Donald Trump is also a candidate?" }, { "id": "G1406", "original": "Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?", "negated": "Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine not adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?" }, { "id": "M3932", "original": "Will Harvard University open a majority of in-person classes on September 2, 2020?", "negated": "Will Harvard University not open a majority of in-person classes on September 2, 2020?" }, { "id": "M521", "original": "At the Jackson Lake location of the famous photograph of The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972, will the eclipse be clearly visible during totality (1:36 PM MDT) on August 21?", "negated": "At the Jackson Lake location of the famous photograph of The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972, will the eclipse not be clearly visible during totality (1:36 PM MDT) on August 21?" }, { "id": "M3895", "original": "Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?", "negated": "Will remdesivir not be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?" }, { "id": "G476", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate not expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?" }, { "id": "M2587", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will any single piece of art, other than Salvator Mundi, be sold for more than $450.3 million?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will any single piece of art, other than Salvator Mundi, be sold for no more than $450.3 million?" }, { "id": "M5260", "original": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?", "negated": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue not feature a human?" }, { "id": "M618", "original": "Will Planet Nine be discovered by mid-2019?", "negated": "Will Planet Nine not be Discovered by mid-2019?" }, { "id": "M498", "original": "At start of 2019, will more than 10 countries be listed with B or A grades on this index?", "negated": "At start of 2019, will fewer than or equal to 10 countries be listed with B or A grades on this index?" }, { "id": "G1005", "original": "In Madison v. Alabama, will the Supreme Court rule that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison?", "negated": "In Madison v. Alabama, will the Supreme Court rule that the State of Alabama may execute Vernon Madison?" }, { "id": "G485", "original": "Will a loya jirga convene in Afghanistan before 2018?", "negated": "Will a loya jirga not convene in Afghanistan before 2018?" }, { "id": "M3897", "original": "Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before 21 June 2020?", "negated": "Will none of PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before 21 June 2020?" }, { "id": "M2985", "original": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?", "negated": "Will the Chinese police or military not intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?" }, { "id": "G1768", "original": "Before 22 September 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law?", "negated": "Before 22 September 2020, will federal legislation not provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law?" }, { "id": "M635", "original": "Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?", "negated": "Will this flu season be better than the 2014 - 2015 season?" }, { "id": "M8", "original": "Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?", "negated": "Will the Twin Prime Conjecture not be positively resolved in 2016?" }, { "id": "G265", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there be no new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G193", "original": "Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?", "negated": "Before 2018, will it not be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?" }, { "id": "M1612", "original": "Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?", "negated": "Will the US-China trade war not escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?" }, { "id": "M972", "original": "Can Germany retain their FIFA World Cup in 2018?", "negated": "Will Germany lose their FIFA World Cup in 2018?" }, { "id": "M3589", "original": "Will ARCA successfully launch an Aerospike-propelled rocket by June 1st, 2020?", "negated": "Will ARCA fail to successfully launch an Aerospike-propelled rocket by June 1st, 2020?" }, { "id": "M3193", "original": "by 00:00:01 UTC February 1, 2020, will SpaceX launch a Starship test vehicle?", "negated": "by 00:00:01 UTC February 1, 2020, will SpaceX not launch a Starship test vehicle?" }, { "id": "M3762", "original": "Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?", "negated": "Will early 2020 AI fail to solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?" }, { "id": "M4637", "original": "Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 close lower for 2020?" }, { "id": "G630", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?" }, { "id": "M408", "original": "Will there be significant followup work referencing the research \"Evidence for Vacuum Birefringence from the First Optical Polarimetry Measurement of the Isolated Neutron Star\"?", "negated": "Will there not be significant followup work referencing the research \"Evidence for Vacuum Birefringence from the First Optical Polarimetry Measurement of the Isolated Neutron Star\"?" }, { "id": "G901", "original": "In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state?", "negated": "In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court not rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state?" }, { "id": "M632", "original": "Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?", "negated": "Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch fail?" }, { "id": "M3284", "original": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of 1bn in 2019 USD for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?", "negated": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will no funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of 1bn in 2019 USD for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?" }, { "id": "G1559", "original": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?" }, { "id": "G944", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council not announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?" }, { "id": "M1581", "original": "Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?", "negated": "Will Theresa May not be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?" }, { "id": "G290", "original": "Will Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "G1173", "original": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will no armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?" }, { "id": "G765", "original": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Somalia between 29 November 2017 and 22 December 2017 ?", "negated": "Will the UN Security Council not adopt a resolution concerning Somalia between 29 November 2017 and 22 December 2017 ?" }, { "id": "G1087", "original": "Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg cease to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before 1 January 2020?", "negated": "Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg continue to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court on 1 January 2020?" }, { "id": "G50", "original": "Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?", "negated": "Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan not announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?" }, { "id": "M2583", "original": "Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?", "negated": "Will the Liberal Party of Canada fail to win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?" }, { "id": "M3794", "original": "By the end of 2020 will Tesla release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?", "negated": "By the end of 2020 will Tesla not release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?" }, { "id": "M4691", "original": "Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 not result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?" }, { "id": "G426", "original": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine?", "negated": "Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. not lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine?" }, { "id": "G449", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will there not exist an armed group from Afghanistan which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M5445", "original": "Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court of the US not uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?" }, { "id": "M2610", "original": "Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?", "negated": "Will the current Dutch cabinet lose a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?" }, { "id": "G244", "original": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will there not be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G698", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not resign, not lose a vote of confidence, and not call new elections?" }, { "id": "G1397", "original": "Between 15 November 2019 and 21 August 2020, will the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) attribute a cross-market trading halt to a cyberattack?", "negated": "Between 15 November 2019 and 21 August 2020, will the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) not attribute any cross-market trading halts to a cyberattack?" }, { "id": "G1748", "original": "Will Colorado voters approve Proposition 113 (Colorado National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Referendum)?", "negated": "Will Colorado voters not approve Proposition 113 (Colorado National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Referendum)?" }, { "id": "G952", "original": "Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union not adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities?" }, { "id": "M188", "original": "Will Planet Nine be found in 2016?", "negated": "Will Planet Nine fail to be found in 2016?" }, { "id": "M2614", "original": "Will the US government shut down on February 16th?", "negated": "Will the US government not shut down on February 16th?" }, { "id": "G941", "original": "Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE fail to verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?" }, { "id": "M352", "original": "Will the election be decided by the beginning of the day, November 11?", "negated": "Will the election not be decided by the beginning of the day, November 11?" }, { "id": "M314", "original": "Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2017 not be the warmest year on record?" }, { "id": "G407", "original": "Will the U.S. Department of Justice approve AT&T's bid for Time Warner before 1 October 2017?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Department of Justice reject AT&T's bid for Time Warner before 1 October 2017?" }, { "id": "G471", "original": "Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019?", "negated": "Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention not declare an influenza pandemic before 2019?" }, { "id": "G22", "original": "Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?", "negated": "Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff not resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?" }, { "id": "M524", "original": "Will Elon Musk step down as CEO by Tesla prior to Sept. 1, 2018?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk retain his position as CEO by Tesla beyond Sept. 1, 2018?" }, { "id": "M4764", "original": "Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?", "negated": "Will the United States of America (USA) not enter a second civil war before July 2021?" }, { "id": "M642", "original": "Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?", "negated": "Will the US not enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?" }, { "id": "G815", "original": "Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. not provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?" }, { "id": "G524", "original": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will there not be an armed group from South Sudan which engages in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?" }, { "id": "M3286", "original": "Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?", "negated": "Will none of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and fail to trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?" }, { "id": "M37", "original": "Will a new planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system by January 25, 2016?", "negated": "Will no new planetary-mass objects be discovered in the outer solar system by January 25, 2016?" }, { "id": "M4683", "original": "Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?", "negated": "Will the border conflict between India and China not escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?" }, { "id": "G893", "original": "In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?", "negated": "In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is not facially unconstitutional?" }, { "id": "M1666", "original": "Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?" }, { "id": "M122", "original": "Can opto-mechanical systems of the proposed type interestingly constrain quantum gravity models?", "negated": "Can opto-mechanical systems of the proposed type not constrain quantum gravity models?" }, { "id": "G833", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?" }, { "id": "G135", "original": "Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?", "negated": "Will the UN Security Council not pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?" }, { "id": "G1415", "original": "Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?", "negated": "Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) fail to produce a consensus statement?" }, { "id": "G770", "original": "Before 1 January 2018, will a Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2018, will no Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo?" }, { "id": "M1498", "original": "Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?" }, { "id": "M164", "original": "By April 2017, will Sandvine or one of the top 25 media outlets publish a report finding that 70% or more of either North American or the world's internet traffic be encrypted?", "negated": "By April 2017, will Sandvine or one of the top 25 media outlets publish a report finding that 69% or less of either North American or the world's internet traffic be encrypted?" }, { "id": "G1038", "original": "In Timbs v. Indiana, will the Supreme Court rule that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states?", "negated": "In Timbs v. Indiana, will the Supreme Court rule that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment does not apply to states?" }, { "id": "M2927", "original": "Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?", "negated": "Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch not appoint a President of the Government?" }, { "id": "G1938", "original": "Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?", "negated": "Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be lower as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?" }, { "id": "M24", "original": "Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?", "negated": "Will the next elected U.S. President not be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?" }, { "id": "G1691", "original": "Will the closing price of Chevron stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?", "negated": "Will the closing price of Chevron stock be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?" }, { "id": "M1355", "original": "Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2020 at 00:00 UTC?", "negated": "Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch not take place prior to January 1st , 2020 at 00:00 UTC?" }, { "id": "G539", "original": "Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?", "negated": "Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will no major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?" }, { "id": "M147", "original": "In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new?", "negated": "In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy fail to discover something completely new?" }, { "id": "M1039", "original": "Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a \"Space Force\" before the 2020 presidential election?", "negated": "Will the Trump Adminstration fail to create a \"Space Force\" before the 2020 presidential election?" }, { "id": "G909", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?" }, { "id": "G446", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?" }, { "id": "M2509", "original": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?", "negated": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu fail to be indicted?" }, { "id": "M217", "original": "By April 15, 2019, will a patent be issued for an invention that was generated entirely algorithmically using a machine learning (or similar) system applied to the U.S. patent database?", "negated": "By April 15, 2019, will there not be a patent issued for an invention that was generated entirely algorithmically using a machine learning (or similar) system applied to the U.S. patent database?" }, { "id": "G1743", "original": "Before 14 November 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation in Lebanon or Israel between the armed forces of Hezbollah and those of Israel?", "negated": "Before 14 November 2020, will there not be a lethal confrontation in Lebanon or Israel between the armed forces of Hezbollah and those of Israel?" }, { "id": "G106", "original": "Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?", "negated": "Will fewer than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?" }, { "id": "M204", "original": "By late 2017, will there be a wide-scale hoax be created using video-alteration technology to put words in a famous figure's mouth?", "negated": "By late 2017, will there not be a wide-scale hoax be created using video-alteration technology to put words in a famous figure's mouth?" }, { "id": "G980", "original": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "M460", "original": "Will ESA select the LISA mission as its L3 mission, to launch in 2034?", "negated": "Will ESA not select the LISA mission as its L3 mission, to launch in 2034?" }, { "id": "G203", "original": "Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?", "negated": "Will none of Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?" }, { "id": "M1518", "original": "Will the Hubble Telescope resume operations in its three-gyro configuration before the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will the Hubble Telescope not resume operations in its three-gyro configuration before the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M1442", "original": "Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" surface before Election Day, 2020?", "negated": "Will no authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" surface before Election Day, 2020?" }, { "id": "G772", "original": "Will Barnaby Joyce win the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia?", "negated": "Will Barnaby Joyce lose the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia?" }, { "id": "M527", "original": "Will the upcoming \"Last Jedi\" augmented reality game be a success?", "negated": "Will the upcoming \"Last Jedi\" augmented reality game be a failure?" }, { "id": "M3270", "original": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?", "negated": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will no new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?" }, { "id": "G546", "original": "Will ACLED record a riot/protest event in the Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017?", "negated": "Will ACLED not record a riot/protest event in the Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017?" }, { "id": "M339", "original": "Will the S&P 500 closing price at the end of trading on Nov. 9, compared to the morning of the 8th, correlate with a Clinton victory?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 closing price at the end of trading on Nov. 9, compared to the morning of the 8th, correlate with a Trump victory?" }, { "id": "M192", "original": "Will 2017 be the year that the London housing market deflates?", "negated": "Will 2017 not be the year that the London housing market deflates?" }, { "id": "M1042", "original": "Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?", "negated": "Will we not find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?" }, { "id": "G452", "original": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "M5656", "original": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "negated": "Will Trump not freely leave the White House?" }, { "id": "M50", "original": "Will the California drought ease significantly this Winter?", "negated": "Will the California drought not ease significantly this Winter?" }, { "id": "G97", "original": "Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?", "negated": "Before the end of 2016, will no North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?" }, { "id": "M2662", "original": "Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?", "negated": "Will the UK not leave the EU without reaching any agreement?" }, { "id": "G259", "original": "Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?", "negated": "Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) not be re-elected this November?" }, { "id": "M796", "original": "Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?", "negated": "Would a Democratically controlled House not impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?" }, { "id": "G1345", "original": "Before 18 April 2020, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?", "negated": "Before 18 April 2020, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont not return to Spain?" }, { "id": "M6548", "original": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?", "negated": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine not be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?" }, { "id": "M5383", "original": "Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?" }, { "id": "G1084", "original": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will no armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?" }, { "id": "M4888", "original": "When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time?", "negated": "When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be lower than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time?" }, { "id": "G123", "original": "Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?", "negated": "Will the Republican candidate for president not win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?" }, { "id": "M667", "original": "On May 1 will the ICO space still be growing in overall size, and stable in success likelihood?", "negated": "On May 1 will the ICO space not still be growing in overall size or stable in success likelihood?" }, { "id": "M3446", "original": "Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1739", "original": "Before 11 November 2020, will Alexander Lukashenko cease to be the president of Belarus?", "negated": "Until 11 November 2020, will Alexander Lukashenko continue to be the president of Belarus?" }, { "id": "G958", "original": "Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018?", "negated": "Will S&P, Moody's, and Fitch not change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018?" }, { "id": "M5440", "original": "Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?", "negated": "Will there be fewer than 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?" }, { "id": "M663", "original": "Will quantum supremacy be achieved by 2025, rather than proving elusive for years to come if not indefinitely?", "negated": "Will quantum supremacy not be achieved by 2025?" }, { "id": "G199", "original": "Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016?", "negated": "Will the EU not lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016?" }, { "id": "G197", "original": "Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?", "negated": "Will Dilma Rousseff continue to be President of Brazil until 1 January 2017?" }, { "id": "G812", "original": "In Murphy v. NCAA, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress cannot prohibit New Jersey from amending or repealing its existing prohibitions on sports gambling?", "negated": "In Murphy v. NCAA, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress can prohibit New Jersey from amending or repealing its existing prohibitions on sports gambling?" }, { "id": "M4561", "original": "Will J.K. Rowling's “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk's bestseller list within a week of its release?", "negated": "Will J.K. Rowling's “The Ickabog” not reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk's bestseller list within a week of its release?" }, { "id": "M184", "original": "by 2020, will the remaining roadblocks be lifted (or circumvented), leading to an implanted human embryo brought fully to term with CRISPR (or a similar system) edited DNA?", "negated": "by 2020, will the remaining roadblocks fail to be lifted (or circumvented), not leading to an implanted human embryo brought fully to term with CRISPR (or a similar system) edited DNA?" }, { "id": "G487", "original": "Before 1 October 2017, will it be announced that the Large Hadron Collider has found evidence of \"sparticles?\"", "negated": "Before 1 October 2017, will it not be announced that the Large Hadron Collider has found evidence of \"sparticles?\"" }, { "id": "M419", "original": "Will legislation to repeal the Affordable Care be signed into law before midnight EST on March 1, 2017?", "negated": "Will legislation to repeal the Affordable Care not be signed into law before midnight EST on March 1, 2017?" }, { "id": "M2951", "original": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration not grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human?" }, { "id": "G30", "original": "Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?", "negated": " Before 1 January 2017, will it not be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?" }, { "id": "G1013", "original": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "G1498", "original": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021?", "negated": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu not cease to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021?" }, { "id": "G1293", "original": "Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 15 November 2019, will there be no lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "G236", "original": "Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland not set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "G908", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?" }, { "id": "G309", "original": "Before 1 April 2017, will any NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria?", "negated": "Before 1 April 2017, will no NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria?" }, { "id": "M251", "original": "By 2020 will a credible journalist or government source report that a non-human pathogen (affecting livestock or crops but not humans) has been deliberately released by a designated terror group?", "negated": "By 2020 will no credible journalist or government source report that a non-human pathogen (affecting livestock or crops but not humans) has been deliberately released by a designated terror group?" }, { "id": "G918", "original": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will no armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?" }, { "id": "M2749", "original": "Will the United Kingdom revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?", "negated": "Will the United Kingdom not revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?" }, { "id": "G99", "original": "Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?", "negated": "Will conservatives lose their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?" }, { "id": "M1347", "original": "Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?", "negated": "Will there not be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?" }, { "id": "G1650", "original": "Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?", "negated": "Until 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper continue to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?" }, { "id": "M4281", "original": "Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?", "negated": "Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 before June 20th?" }, { "id": "G834", "original": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "M1702", "original": "When the NYSE closes on Dec 31 2019, will the S&P 500 index be higher than 2,506.85 points?", "negated": "When the NYSE closes on Dec 31 2019, will the S&P 500 index be lower than 2,506.85 points?" }, { "id": "M3100", "original": "Will an EU country veto an extension of the Brexit deliberation period on or before Oct 31st 2019?", "negated": "Will no EU country veto an extension of the Brexit deliberation period on or before Oct 31st 2019?" }, { "id": "M2657", "original": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?", "negated": "Will Andrew Yang not win the Democratic nomination?" }, { "id": "G202", "original": "Will a woman be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?", "negated": "Will a man be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?" }, { "id": "G1622", "original": "Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?", "negated": "Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will no Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?" }, { "id": "M3481", "original": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "negated": "Will CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?" }, { "id": "M5366", "original": "On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?", "negated": "On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be lower than Denmark?" }, { "id": "M224", "original": "Will SpaceX successfully launch a rocket towards Mars in this window?", "negated": "Will SpaceX fail to successfully launch a rocket towards Mars in this window?" }, { "id": "M494", "original": "Will the mean Brier score of the Metaculus prediction on Jan 23, 2018 be lower than 0.13?", "negated": "Will the mean Brier score of the Metaculus prediction on Jan 23, 2018 be higher than 0.13?" }, { "id": "M1605", "original": "Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?", "negated": "Will no reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?" }, { "id": "M398", "original": "Will the image projection feature be part of the new Nintendo Switch?", "negated": "Will the image projection feature not be part of the new Nintendo Switch?" }, { "id": "G572", "original": "In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?", "negated": "In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court not rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?" }, { "id": "M432", "original": "Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will North Korea not test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M2629", "original": "Will the average world temperature change according to NASA show an increase in 2019 relative to 2018?", "negated": "Will the average world temperature change according to NASA not show an increase in 2019 relative to 2018?" }, { "id": "G1213", "original": "Before 17 August 2019, will retirement savings legislation known as the SECURE Act become law?", "negated": "Before 17 August 2019, will retirement savings legislation known as the SECURE Act fail to become law?" }, { "id": "G627", "original": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?", "negated": "Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will no armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?" }, { "id": "G1839", "original": "Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?", "negated": "Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be lower than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?" }, { "id": "M1607", "original": "Between January 1st and June 30th 2019 inclusive, will a scientific paper be published describing genetic data from a new Denisova hominin?", "negated": "Between January 1st and June 30th 2019 inclusive, will no scientific paper be published describing genetic data from a new Denisova hominin?" }, { "id": "M347", "original": "Will the annual maximum Antarctic ozone hole size begin its recovery by 2020?", "negated": "Will the annual maximum Antarctic ozone hole size not begin its recovery by 2020?" }, { "id": "M595", "original": "Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?", "negated": "Will the UK's Conservative government not fall by the end of 2018?" }, { "id": "M3444", "original": "Will the S&P 500 Index value greater than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 Index value equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020?" }, { "id": "M528", "original": "Prior to Jan 1, 2020, will a peer-reviewed article appear in the mainstream physics literature which discusses a discovery of a physical phenomenon or which outlines an engineering technique that can either (1) increase the number of deuterium-tritium fusions per muon, or (2) decrease the energy cost of muon production to the point where a break-even reactor is feasible?", "negated": "Prior to Jan 1, 2020, will there be no peer-reviewed articles in the mainstream physics literature which discuss discovery of a physical phenomenon or which outline an engineering technique that can either (1) increase the number of deuterium-tritium fusions per muon, or (2) decrease the energy cost of muon production to the point where a break-even reactor is feasible?" }, { "id": "M5362", "original": "On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?", "negated": "On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be lower than or equal to 40%?" }, { "id": "G72", "original": "Will \"implementation day\" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections?", "negated": "Will \"implementation day\" for the Iranian nuclear deal not occur before Iran's legislative elections?" }, { "id": "G1728", "original": "Will a World Series decide an MLB Champion in 2020?", "negated": "Will a World Series not decide an MLB Champion in 2020?" }, { "id": "M3485", "original": "Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?", "negated": "Will Brexit not happen in 2020?" }, { "id": "G1565", "original": "Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 15.00?", "negated": "Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 15.00?" }, { "id": "G7", "original": "Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?", "negated": "Will Iran not release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?" }, { "id": "M2597", "original": "Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?", "negated": "Will US troops not intervene in Venezuela?" }, { "id": "G421", "original": "Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?", "negated": "Will neither India nor Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?" }, { "id": "G275", "original": "Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?", "negated": "Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by less than 10 percentage points?" }, { "id": "M166", "original": "Will Tesla exhibit a full prototype of the Model E at the event, in the form of a physical car with an operating electrical system?", "negated": "Will Tesla not exhibit a full prototype of the Model E at the event, in the form of a physical car with an operating electrical system?" }, { "id": "G1131", "original": "Will legislation permitting electric utilities to recover 2018 wildfire liability debt costs by charging customers become law in California before 14 October 2019?", "negated": "Will legislation permitting electric utilities to recover 2018 wildfire liability debt costs by charging customers not become law in California before 14 October 2019?" }, { "id": "M2750", "original": "Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?", "negated": "Will the outbreak be over by the 29th of February 2020?" }, { "id": "G1106", "original": "Will voter turnout for the 2019 European Parliament elections set a record low?", "negated": "Will voter turnout for the 2019 European Parliament elections not set a record low?" }, { "id": "G1892", "original": "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 15 March 2021, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "M4926", "original": "Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?", "negated": "Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be lower than that in Q1 2020?" }, { "id": "M2714", "original": "Will Pewdiepie be the first YouTube channel to have 100 million subscribers on YouTube?", "negated": "Will Pewdiepie not be the first YouTube channel to have 100 million subscribers on YouTube?" }, { "id": "M3856", "original": "Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators?", "negated": "Within every calendar month in 2020, will fewer than 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators?" }, { "id": "M4", "original": "Will we confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852?", "negated": "Will we not confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852?" }, { "id": "M1456", "original": "Does Atiyah have an actual proof of the Riemann hypothesis?", "negated": "Does Atiyah have no actual proof of the Riemann hypothesis?" }, { "id": "M1555", "original": "Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?", "negated": "Will the Ocean Cleanup project succeed in having 60 systems up and running by 2021?" }, { "id": "G1120", "original": "Before 1 January 2020, will the registration deadline for Germany's ownership tax exemption for fully-electric vehicles be extended beyond 2020?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2020, will the registration deadline for Germany's ownership tax exemption for fully-electric vehicles not be extended beyond 2020?" }, { "id": "M169", "original": "Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?", "negated": "Will no record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?" }, { "id": "M3732", "original": "If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?", "negated": "If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump fail to be reelected president in 2020?" }, { "id": "M4536", "original": "Will the United States experience widespread rioting in 2020?", "negated": "Will the United States not experience widespread rioting in 2020?" }, { "id": "M3843", "original": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?", "negated": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will someone besides Sanders become the nominee?" }, { "id": "G1618", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before 15 December 2020?", "negated": "Will there be no lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before 15 December 2020?" }, { "id": "G2051", "original": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?", "negated": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US not impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?" }, { "id": "M8971", "original": "Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?", "negated": "Will Republicans not win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?" }, { "id": "G2124", "original": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?" }, { "id": "M8728", "original": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", "negated": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses not be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8855", "original": "Will Russia ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M8153", "original": "Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", "negated": "Will there not be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?" }, { "id": "M8847", "original": "By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", "negated": "By April 2023, will the US not approve cultivated meat for human consumption?" }, { "id": "M6903", "original": "Will the WTA and ATP tennis tours merge before 2031?", "negated": "Will the WTA and ATP tennies tours not merge before 2031?" }, { "id": "M10053", "original": "By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "negated": "By 2024, will Vladimir Putin not be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?" }, { "id": "G2344", "original": "Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?", "negated": "Will NATO or a NATO member state not publicly accuse the People's Republic of China between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022 of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M9985", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will oil or natural gas systems be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will oil or natural gas systems not be attacked?" }, { "id": "M7406", "original": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", "negated": "Will no fatalities be caused by 2030 due to a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor?" }, { "id": "M8334", "original": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", "negated": "Will spending on US office construction be greater than $77 Billion USD in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8583", "original": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?", "negated": "Will less than 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?" }, { "id": "M10081", "original": "Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not join the European Union before 2024?" }, { "id": "G2090", "original": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?", "negated": "Will Amazon.com continue to not accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site by 1 October 2022?" }, { "id": "M10150", "original": "Will a major successful ransomware attack hit a US water treatment company by May 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will a US water treatment company not be hit by a major successful ransomware attack by May 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M7329", "original": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?", "negated": "Will it not be the case that one government governs 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?" }, { "id": "C976", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin still be the president of the Russian Federation on 1 March 2023?" }, { "id": "M10703", "original": "Will the US enter a recession before January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will the US not enter a recession before January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M8850", "original": "Will China ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", "negated": "Will China not ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?" }, { "id": "G2249", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", "negated": "Will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline not begin delivering natural gas to Germany by 1 January 2023?" }, { "id": "M7861", "original": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will China not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7603", "original": "Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?", "negated": "Will the U.S. CDC not announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?" }, { "id": "M9123", "original": "In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?", "negated": "In 2025, will code generating AI not have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?" }, { "id": "M10143", "original": "Will the U.S. Congress pass into law a cyber incident reporting act for entities that own or operate critical infrastructure before June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the U.S. Congress not pass into law a cyber incident reporting act for entities that own or operate critical infrastructure before June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2169", "original": "Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?", "negated": "Will Taiwan not publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?" }, { "id": "M8326", "original": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?", "negated": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI not be part of a university?" }, { "id": "M10737", "original": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M10429", "original": "Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?", "negated": "Will Brazil not reach net zero deforestation before 2031?" }, { "id": "M8378", "original": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "negated": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 not exceed 10,000Mt?" }, { "id": "C349", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces not fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M7003", "original": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong by April 1, 2023?", "negated": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment not indicative that the Standard Model is wrong by April 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10047", "original": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?", "negated": "Will no member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8315", "original": "Will the next James Bond be female?", "negated": "Will the next James Bond not be female?" }, { "id": "G2270", "original": "Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022?", "negated": "Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) not become law before 19 August 2022?" }, { "id": "M9752", "original": "Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?", "negated": "Will an anti-discrimination law not be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?" }, { "id": "M7919", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?", "negated": "Will mean log-odds not outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?" }, { "id": "C1048", "original": "Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?", "negated": "Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in less than 25 fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?" }, { "id": "M9930", "original": "Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8599", "original": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", "negated": "Will the FDA or EMA not withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?" }, { "id": "M9214", "original": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", "negated": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev not exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8368", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "If there's an offensive nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be no fatalities from such a detonation in Pakistan at that time?" }, { "id": "M7812", "original": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", "negated": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan not receive direct military support from allied nations?" }, { "id": "M8845", "original": "By April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", "negated": "By April 2023, will the European Union not approve cultivated meat for human consumption?" }, { "id": "M10667", "original": "Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?" }, { "id": "M8745", "original": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it not be due to naturally occuring pandemics?" }, { "id": "M10132", "original": "Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?", "negated": "Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies not surpass 2021?" }, { "id": "M8851", "original": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?", "negated": "Will a cultivated meat company not be profitable by April 2023?" }, { "id": "M9980", "original": "Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?", "negated": "Will Shanghai not continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?" }, { "id": "M7591", "original": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033?", "negated": "Will it not be the case that 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033?" }, { "id": "M7736", "original": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?", "negated": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture not be proved by 2030?" }, { "id": "M9796", "original": "Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?", "negated": "Will none of the European Union member states be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?" }, { "id": "M9573", "original": "Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court not end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10847", "original": "Will China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan before 2025?", "negated": "Will China not launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan before 2025?" }, { "id": "M7914", "original": "Will India sign the Artemis Accords by 2025?", "negated": "Will India not sign the Artemis Accords by 2025?" }, { "id": "M9570", "original": "Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?", "negated": "Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be less than 2.0C by 2037?" }, { "id": "M10923", "original": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035?", "negated": "Will China not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035?" }, { "id": "M7784", "original": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", "negated": "Will Egypt not attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10032", "original": "Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?", "negated": "Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) not exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7816", "original": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?", "negated": "Will Tesla not reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8396", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity not be extinct within 50 years?" }, { "id": "M7862", "original": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", "negated": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried not have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?" }, { "id": "M7552", "original": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", "negated": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain not be defaced or destroyed before 2035?" }, { "id": "C969", "original": "By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?", "negated": "By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company not announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?" }, { "id": "C1068", "original": "In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10% according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?", "negated": "In 2022, will a Chinese institution not have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10% according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?" }, { "id": "M8645", "original": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", "negated": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be unauthorised/non-accidental?" }, { "id": "G2160", "original": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?", "negated": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 not become law before 1 October 2022?" }, { "id": "M10630", "original": "Will Joe Biden be re-elected President of the United States in 2024?", "negated": "Will Joe Biden not be re-elected President of the United States in 2024?" }, { "id": "M7871", "original": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10003", "original": "Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024?" }, { "id": "M8392", "original": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", "negated": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be not at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?" }, { "id": "M9627", "original": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?", "negated": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?" }, { "id": "M8398", "original": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "negated": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations not cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?" }, { "id": "G2133", "original": "Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?", "negated": "Will single-use plastic bags not be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?" }, { "id": "M9525", "original": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will Singapore not be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M8725", "original": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", "negated": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer NOT exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?" }, { "id": "G2343", "original": "Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?", "negated": "Will US real GDP not contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?" }, { "id": "M10747", "original": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine formally pledge to join NATO before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10933", "original": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?", "negated": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried not be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?" }, { "id": "M8816", "original": "Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?", "negated": "Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) not sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?" }, { "id": "G2248", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate not independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?" }, { "id": "M10614", "original": "Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not become the first trillionaire?" }, { "id": "M8619", "original": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "negated": "Will bimagrumab not be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?" }, { "id": "M8106", "original": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", "negated": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal not be commercially available before one for humans?" }, { "id": "M9453", "original": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", "negated": "Will the European Central Bank not raise interest rates in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8582", "original": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", "negated": "Will smoking and sex be more prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?" }, { "id": "M8365", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?" }, { "id": "M8053", "original": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", "negated": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed not experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?" }, { "id": "M8612", "original": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "negated": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there not be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?" }, { "id": "M10142", "original": "Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?", "negated": "Will the Senate Commerce committee not reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8729", "original": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", "negated": "Will an Alphabet company not win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?" }, { "id": "G2280", "original": "Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022?", "negated": "Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union not reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022?" }, { "id": "M7468", "original": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "negated": "Will there not be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?" }, { "id": "M8868", "original": "Will Vietnam ban export of rice before April 2023?", "negated": "Will Vietnam not ban export of rice before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M9946", "original": "Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?", "negated": "Will any Fields Medal winner not boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?" }, { "id": "M7165", "original": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?", "negated": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?" }, { "id": "M6364", "original": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?", "negated": "Will Bill Gates not implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?" }, { "id": "M8105", "original": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", "negated": "Will human population size not recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?" }, { "id": "M8947", "original": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "negated": "Will Google not implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?" }, { "id": "M10293", "original": "Will Israel arm Ukraine by 2024?", "negated": "Will Israel not arm Ukraine by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8505", "original": "By 2050, will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", "negated": "By 2050, will less than 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?" }, { "id": "M10745", "original": "Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will Russia not control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M8882", "original": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?", "negated": "Will 2022 not be the hottest year on record?" }, { "id": "M9749", "original": "Will BB(5) be known by 2040?", "negated": "Will BB(5) not be known by 2040?" }, { "id": "M9566", "original": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10085", "original": "Will Finland join NATO before 2024?", "negated": "Will Finland not join NATO before 2024?" }, { "id": "G2228", "original": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?", "negated": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries not reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?" }, { "id": "M9961", "original": "Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?", "negated": "Will China not adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?" }, { "id": "M9899", "original": "Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10430", "original": "Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?", "negated": "Will the Social Democrats not hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?" }, { "id": "M10788", "original": "Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?", "negated": "Will David Segal not win the RI-2 Democratic primary?" }, { "id": "G2132", "original": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", "negated": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 not reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?" }, { "id": "M10787", "original": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?", "negated": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin not be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?" }, { "id": "C170", "original": "Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?", "negated": "Will the United States not have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?" }, { "id": "M8533", "original": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?", "negated": "Will Xi Jinping not continue leading China in 2030?" }, { "id": "M7840", "original": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US not rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8009", "original": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?", "negated": "Will Urbit development not be ongoing in 2025?" }, { "id": "M10634", "original": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?", "negated": "Will Xi Jinping not be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10269", "original": "Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?", "negated": "Will Kyiv not be under Russian control before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7453", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?" }, { "id": "M8555", "original": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", "negated": "Will median wages be lower for women than for men in the United States in 2050?" }, { "id": "M9120", "original": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?", "negated": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron not resolve ambiguously?" }, { "id": "M8051", "original": "Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "negated": "Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China not lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?" }, { "id": "M7207", "original": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", "negated": "Will the price of Bitcoin not fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?" }, { "id": "M8382", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that not cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?" }, { "id": "C1045", "original": "Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?", "negated": "Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces not take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?" }, { "id": "M7792", "original": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?", "negated": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) not lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?" }, { "id": "M8554", "original": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", "negated": "Will women not receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?" }, { "id": "G2176", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country not officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?" }, { "id": "M10585", "original": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10827", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8977", "original": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US Supreme Court not overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?" }, { "id": "C373", "original": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M10220", "original": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "negated": "Will less than 95% of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?" }, { "id": "M9471", "original": "Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?", "negated": "Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA fail to pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?" }, { "id": "M8110", "original": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", "negated": "Will Saudi Arabia not normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?" }, { "id": "M9984", "original": "Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "negated": "Will critical US infrastructure not be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8313", "original": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", "negated": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried not be the richest person in the world by 2050?" }, { "id": "M8994", "original": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?", "negated": "Will Jaedon Whyte not qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8397", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be more than 400 million 50 years later?" }, { "id": "G2244", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US not officially rejoin the JCPOA?" }, { "id": "M8774", "original": "Will Section 230 be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?", "negated": "Will Section 230 not be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?" }, { "id": "M8611", "original": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a China-Russia war by 2035?" }, { "id": "M9977", "original": "Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?", "negated": "Will China not reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?" }, { "id": "M9969", "original": "Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?", "negated": "Will China not get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8049", "original": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", "negated": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out not to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?" }, { "id": "M8093", "original": "Will a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", "negated": "Will a coordinated effort at foot voting not intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10151", "original": "Will it be publicly reported that a major successful ransomware attack hit a U.S. company in the gas/oil pipeline sector by May 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will it not be publicly reported that a major successful ransomware attack hit a U.S. company in the gas/oil pipeline sector by May 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8754", "original": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US, UK, or EU not authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10678", "original": "Will North Korea produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?", "negated": "Will North Korea not produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?" }, { "id": "M7509", "original": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?", "negated": "Will it be illegal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10393", "original": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?", "negated": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India not be on the same side?" }, { "id": "M7786", "original": "Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "negated": "Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan not lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?" }, { "id": "M10810", "original": "Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?", "negated": "Will Russia's total territory not decrease by at least 20% before 2028?" }, { "id": "M7211", "original": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?", "negated": "Will no body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?" }, { "id": "M10977", "original": "Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?", "negated": "Will WHO not declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?" }, { "id": "G2339", "original": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour become law before 1 March 2023?", "negated": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour not become law before 1 March 2023?" }, { "id": "M8513", "original": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces not seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2125", "original": "Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan not sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?" }, { "id": "M10829", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?" }, { "id": "C963", "original": "Before 31 December 2022, will the U.S. President sign a law making unused employment based green cards from previous years available to employment based immigrants?", "negated": "Before 31 December 2022, will the U.S. President not sign a law making unused employment based green cards from previous years available to employment based immigrants?" }, { "id": "G2164", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?" }, { "id": "M10094", "original": "Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7384", "original": "Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?", "negated": "Before 2030, will mainstream news media not report that alien technology has visited our solar system?" }, { "id": "M7314", "original": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", "negated": "Will there not be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?" }, { "id": "M8944", "original": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9174", "original": "Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?", "negated": "Will none of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8356", "original": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", "negated": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer not leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?" }, { "id": "M8515", "original": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", "negated": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques not be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?" }, { "id": "M10953", "original": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "negated": "Will Jeff Bezos not hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?" }, { "id": "M9935", "original": "Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "negated": "Will less than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?" }, { "id": "C1036", "original": "Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?", "negated": "Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska not declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?" }, { "id": "M8858", "original": "Will Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?", "negated": "Will Thailand not ban export of rice before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M7037", "original": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", "negated": "Will North Korea and South Korea not be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?" }, { "id": "M7512", "original": "Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "negated": "Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause less than 100 deaths before 2050?" }, { "id": "M8946", "original": "Will Facebook implement a feature to explain news feed recommendations before 2026?", "negated": "Will Facebook not implement a feature to explain news feed recommendations before 2026?" }, { "id": "M9948", "original": "Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will there be 4 or less deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10756", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 750 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7925", "original": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", "negated": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" not be born in China?" }, { "id": "M9582", "original": "By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?", "negated": "By December 31, 2022, will 10,000 or less US troops move into Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M8931", "original": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", "negated": "Will Magnus Carlsen not compete in the next World Chess Championship match?" }, { "id": "M8395", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause 1 million or less fatalities within 1 month?" }, { "id": "M7975", "original": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", "negated": "Will there not be a European Army before 2032?" }, { "id": "M8408", "original": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", "negated": "Will GiveWell recommend no grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?" }, { "id": "M8035", "original": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will Russia not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M8495", "original": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", "negated": "By 2050, will there be 400 or more public 4-year colleges in the US?" }, { "id": "M7597", "original": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", "negated": "Will Trevor Milton not be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10674", "original": "Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "negated": "Will Kamala Harris not be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?" }, { "id": "C977", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reported by the Levada Center drop below 50% in the next month?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reported by the Levada Center not drop below 50% in the next month?" }, { "id": "M10831", "original": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?", "negated": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy not win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8404", "original": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", "negated": "By 2050, will less than 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?" }, { "id": "M7334", "original": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?", "negated": "Will commercial animal farming not be prohibited in the US by 2041?" }, { "id": "M10687", "original": "Will Boris Johnson lose re-election in the next UK General Election?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson win re-election in the next UK General Election?" }, { "id": "M10040", "original": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?", "negated": "Will YouTube not be blocked in Russia in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7208", "original": "Will Jeff Bezos undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?", "negated": "Will Jeff Bezos not undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?" }, { "id": "G2171", "original": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "negated": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union not impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?" }, { "id": "M8670", "original": "Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?", "negated": "Will the US President not continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?" }, { "id": "G2227", "original": "Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?", "negated": "Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) not announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?" }, { "id": "M8573", "original": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", "negated": "Will 70% or more of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?" }, { "id": "M8101", "original": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", "negated": "Will Yair Lapid not be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10424", "original": "Is the abc conjecture true?", "negated": "Is the abc conjecture false?" }, { "id": "M9591", "original": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", "negated": "Will there not be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?" }, { "id": "C372", "original": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M10107", "original": "Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will North Korea not have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10554", "original": "Will at least 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will 100,000 or less Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7669", "original": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "negated": "Will France not place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?" }, { "id": "M9937", "original": "Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "negated": "Will 50,000 or less people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?" }, { "id": "G2255", "original": "Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?", "negated": "Will doctors not attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?" }, { "id": "M8370", "original": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "negated": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US not occur as part of the same conflict?" }, { "id": "M8997", "original": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", "negated": "Will WHO not add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8602", "original": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "negated": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide not be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?" }, { "id": "M8991", "original": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", "negated": "Will 2022 be the same or colder than 2021?" }, { "id": "M8525", "original": "Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk sell no more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?" }, { "id": "M9415", "original": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", "negated": "Will Hillary Clinton not be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?" }, { "id": "G2141", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office not officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?" }, { "id": "M7547", "original": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?", "negated": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat not be prohibited in the US by 2041?" }, { "id": "M8608", "original": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "negated": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there not be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?" }, { "id": "M8145", "original": "Will more than 2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?", "negated": "Will less than or equal to 2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?" }, { "id": "G2355", "original": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?", "negated": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky neither flee Ukraine nor cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?" }, { "id": "M10409", "original": "Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?", "negated": "Will the world not be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?" }, { "id": "M8444", "original": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", "negated": "Will Tesla not become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?" }, { "id": "G2234", "original": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "negated": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) not officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?" }, { "id": "G2264", "original": "Will new episodes of Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, cease to be carried on Spotify before 2 August 2022?", "negated": "Will new episodes of Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, not cease to be carried on Spotify before 2 August 2022?" }, { "id": "M10005", "original": "Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?", "negated": "Will Russia not be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8512", "original": "Will quantum-enhanced machine learning be demonstrated by 2040?", "negated": "Will quantum-enhanced machine learning not be demonstrated by 2040?" }, { "id": "M8034", "original": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??", "negated": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill NOT become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??" }, { "id": "M8463", "original": "Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?", "negated": "Will the United States not drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?" }, { "id": "G2156", "original": "Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?", "negated": "Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) not trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?" }, { "id": "G2245", "original": "Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?", "negated": "Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the negative or not vote to unionize in their next scheduled election?" }, { "id": "M7857", "original": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?", "negated": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier not show a decline in population?" }, { "id": "M7850", "original": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?", "negated": "Will the GOP not control the senate after the 2024 elections?" }, { "id": "M8154", "original": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?", "negated": "Will the US not propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?" }, { "id": "M8989", "original": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will no nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10448", "original": "Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9050", "original": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it not be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?" }, { "id": "M8499", "original": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?" }, { "id": "G2398", "original": "Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China reach or exceed 100,000?", "negated": "Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China not reach 100,000?" }, { "id": "G2397", "original": "Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?", "negated": "Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 not reach $9.0 billion?" }, { "id": "M8844", "original": "By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", "negated": "By April 2023, will China not approve cultivated meat for human consumption?" }, { "id": "M10055", "original": "Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024?", "negated": "Will Medvedchuk not become the president of Ukraine before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10001", "original": "Will at least 50k civilians die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022?", "negated": "Will at least 50k civilians not die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10127", "original": "Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?", "negated": "Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS not occur in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10738", "original": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M10562", "original": "Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?", "negated": "Will Sarah Palin not be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10807", "original": "Will Zelenskyy be re-elected President in the next Ukrainian elections?", "negated": "Will Zelenskyy not be re-elected President in the next Ukrainian elections?" }, { "id": "M8363", "original": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a China-India war by 2035?" }, { "id": "G2374", "original": "Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself?", "negated": "Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset not vote to dissolve itself?" }, { "id": "M10359", "original": "Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?", "negated": "Will Turkey's annual inflation not fall to 4% or less before 2025?" }, { "id": "M8726", "original": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", "negated": "Will any flu season before 2032 not exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?" }, { "id": "M7231", "original": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?", "negated": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP not exceed 61% by 2026?" }, { "id": "M10020", "original": "Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?", "negated": "Will Ron DeSantis not be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8614", "original": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", "negated": "Will a non-state actor not develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?" }, { "id": "M7243", "original": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?", "negated": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators not both be Democrats?" }, { "id": "M10938", "original": "Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?", "negated": "Will Queen Elizabeth II not abdicate in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9539", "original": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "C1052", "original": "By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?", "negated": "By 30 June 2022, will a date not be announced for a Mobileye IPO?" }, { "id": "C977", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reported by the Levada Center drop below 50% in the next month?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reported by the Levada Center not drop below 50% in the next month?" }, { "id": "M10050", "original": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10043", "original": "Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not join the EU before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10042", "original": "Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M7099", "original": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", "negated": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have two or less full-time employees in 2025?" }, { "id": "M7434", "original": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", "negated": "Will PsiQuantum not have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?" }, { "id": "G2335", "original": "Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?", "negated": "Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia not publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?" }, { "id": "M7839", "original": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", "negated": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation not exist and not be uploading new articles in 2023?" }, { "id": "M10492", "original": "Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Mariupol not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7977", "original": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", "negated": "Will US core CPI inflation not rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?" }, { "id": "C967", "original": "In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft?", "negated": "In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? No." }, { "id": "C373", "original": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M7244", "original": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?", "negated": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both not be Republicans?" }, { "id": "C349", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces not fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "G2334", "original": "Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?", "negated": "Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan not result in 100 or more fatalities?" }, { "id": "M6939", "original": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?", "negated": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have not slowed down substantially?" }, { "id": "M8664", "original": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2031?", "negated": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts not pass in the United States before 2031?" }, { "id": "M10880", "original": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?", "negated": "Will China not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M9171", "original": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?", "negated": "Will there be 36 or fewer private fusion-energy companies in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10046", "original": "Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?", "negated": "Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8526", "original": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", "negated": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be unconstitutional?" }, { "id": "G2253", "original": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?", "negated": "Will the UN declare that a famine does not exist in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8968", "original": "Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?", "negated": "Will the Federal Reserve not set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?" }, { "id": "M9587", "original": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", "negated": "Will no work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?" }, { "id": "M8848", "original": "Will Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?", "negated": "Will Brazil not ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M9533", "original": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will China not be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M8475", "original": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", "negated": "Will Robin Hanson lose his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?" }, { "id": "M8846", "original": "By April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", "negated": "By April 2023, will Israel not approve cultivated meat for human consumption?" }, { "id": "M9987", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will security, military, or emergency response systems be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will security, military, or emergency response systems not be attacked?" }, { "id": "M7230", "original": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will FTX not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M8637", "original": "At least 1 fatality in Israel from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", "negated": "No fatality in Israel from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?" }, { "id": "M7235", "original": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Binance not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M8945", "original": "Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?", "negated": "Will Google not block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8843", "original": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?", "negated": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef not become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?" }, { "id": "G2146", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service not open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai?" }, { "id": "G2313", "original": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?", "negated": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?" }, { "id": "M9783", "original": "Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1st, 2024?", "negated": "Will Peter Daszak not be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1st, 2024?" }, { "id": "M9522", "original": "Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", "negated": "Before January 1, 2023, will Russia not invade or annex all or part of Belarus?" }, { "id": "M8618", "original": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?", "negated": "Will tirzepatide not be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?" }, { "id": "M7441", "original": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", "negated": "Will women not be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8327", "original": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?", "negated": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI not be part of a government project?" }, { "id": "G2079", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon not announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?" }, { "id": "G2395", "original": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?", "negated": "Will neither the UK nor the EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?" }, { "id": "M8369", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?" }, { "id": "M8750", "original": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", "negated": "Will there be no human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?" }, { "id": "M8362", "original": "Will there be a US-China war by 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a US-China war by 2035?" }, { "id": "M9936", "original": "Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "negated": "Will 100,000 or less people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10106", "original": "Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?", "negated": "Will fewer than four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9163", "original": "Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not regain a Twitter account in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8407", "original": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?", "negated": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US not decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?" }, { "id": "M10949", "original": "Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "negated": "Will the next Russian leader approve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?" }, { "id": "G2140", "original": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?", "negated": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court not rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?" }, { "id": "M8558", "original": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", "negated": "Will polygamy not be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?" }, { "id": "G2314", "original": "Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?", "negated": "Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia not publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M10616", "original": "Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will China not abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10746", "original": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine formally pledge to join the EU before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8635", "original": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "negated": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 not exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?" }, { "id": "M10490", "original": "Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?", "negated": "Will the TSA not extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10044", "original": "Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8164", "original": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", "negated": "Will a member of the Forward Party not hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?" }, { "id": "M9491", "original": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will Singapore not be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M8751", "original": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this be due to the spread of the Omicron variant?", "negated": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this not be due to the spread of the Omicron variant?" }, { "id": "M7288", "original": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "negated": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA not match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?" }, { "id": "G2201", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly not accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?" }, { "id": "M8860", "original": "Will the US ban exports of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?", "negated": "Will the US not ban exports of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?" }, { "id": "M8366", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?" }, { "id": "M10833", "original": "Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?", "negated": "Will Pakistan not default on its debt in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7795", "original": "Given that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "Given that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by 95% or less relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "M10557", "original": "Will at least 100,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will 100,000 or less Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7323", "original": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?", "negated": "Will semaglutide not be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?" }, { "id": "M7978", "original": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", "negated": "Will a US Democratic President not sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?" }, { "id": "M8391", "original": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", "negated": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it not start in the period June-September?" }, { "id": "M7798", "original": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "negated": "Will Tom Tugendhat not become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?" }, { "id": "C1077", "original": "Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?", "negated": "Will Tether (USDT) trade at or above $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?" }, { "id": "M6694", "original": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10117", "original": "Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit not cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10267", "original": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will no NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8054", "original": "Will Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030?", "negated": "Will Netanyahu not be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10002", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin not be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M7660", "original": "Will the first human clone be made in China?", "negated": "Will the first human clone not be made in China?" }, { "id": "M9119", "original": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?", "negated": "Will Holden lose his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?" }, { "id": "G2364", "original": "Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter not announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?" }, { "id": "M8509", "original": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?", "negated": "Will Meta not report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?" }, { "id": "M8516", "original": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", "negated": "Will 50% or less of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?" }, { "id": "M7828", "original": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?", "negated": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from the same political party as the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?" }, { "id": "G2241", "original": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?", "negated": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev neither flee Kazakhstan nor cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?" }, { "id": "M9086", "original": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will Kim Jong-un not remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M7814", "original": "By 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "negated": "By 2032, will we not see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?" }, { "id": "M8601", "original": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "negated": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug not be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?" }, { "id": "M10444", "original": "Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?", "negated": "Will a technical problem not be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?" }, { "id": "M8885", "original": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?" }, { "id": "G2370", "original": "Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?", "negated": "Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea not detonate a nuclear device?" }, { "id": "M8632", "original": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "negated": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 not exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?" }, { "id": "G2233", "original": "Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "negated": "Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson not cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?" }, { "id": "M8377", "original": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?", "negated": "Will countries not possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?" }, { "id": "M8504", "original": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?", "negated": "Will the United States not sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10806", "original": "Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not join the Union State before 2040?" }, { "id": "G2214", "original": "In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?", "negated": "In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court not explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?" }, { "id": "M8380", "original": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "negated": "Will any state not test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?" }, { "id": "M7664", "original": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "negated": "Will USA not top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?" }, { "id": "M10919", "original": "Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by 2024?", "negated": "Will Johnny Depp not receive a film contract from a major film studio by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7437", "original": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", "negated": "Will a cryptocurrency not be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?" }, { "id": "M10621", "original": "Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not become CEO of Twitter before 2025?" }, { "id": "M10243", "original": "If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?", "negated": "If humanity goes extinct, will no other intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?" }, { "id": "C1069", "original": "Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?", "negated": "Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills not equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?" }, { "id": "M7917", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?", "negated": "Will mean log-odds underperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?" }, { "id": "G2384", "original": "Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?", "negated": "Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) not sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?" }, { "id": "M7807", "original": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", "negated": "Will a civil war not break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?" }, { "id": "M10568", "original": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?", "negated": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen not hold for its intended duration?" }, { "id": "M8118", "original": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Solana not be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9612", "original": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Joe Rogan not leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M7962", "original": "Does P equal BPP?", "negated": "Does P not equal BPP?" }, { "id": "M10110", "original": "Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?", "negated": "Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions not trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9795", "original": "Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?", "negated": "Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence less than Democrats?" }, { "id": "G2396", "original": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?", "negated": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa not cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?" }, { "id": "G2148", "original": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?", "negated": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare not project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?" }, { "id": "M9952", "original": "Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7556", "original": "[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?", "negated": "[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam not collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?" }, { "id": "M10671", "original": "Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?", "negated": "Will Omicron XE not be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10602", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10306", "original": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors not cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?" }, { "id": "M9981", "original": "Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?", "negated": "Will China not reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10553", "original": "Will at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will fewer than 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "C1008", "original": "Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?", "negated": "Will events involving Russian security forces not result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?" }, { "id": "M7240", "original": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Polymarket not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M10577", "original": "Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?", "negated": "Will Donald J. Trump not be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?" }, { "id": "M9459", "original": "Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russian troops not enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7082", "original": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?", "negated": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" not be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?" }, { "id": "M10145", "original": "In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?", "negated": "In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or lower?" }, { "id": "M8636", "original": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?", "negated": "Will there not be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?" }, { "id": "M10436", "original": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?", "negated": "Will no massive solar storm occur before 2050?" }, { "id": "M9589", "original": "Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?", "negated": "Will Nigeria not have a coup before 2025?" }, { "id": "M8360", "original": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?", "negated": "Will Israel not require salt to be iodized by 2030?" }, { "id": "M7316", "original": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", "negated": "Will a exascale volume of connectome not be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?" }, { "id": "M9774", "original": "Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?", "negated": "Will the New York Times not place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?" }, { "id": "M9632", "original": "Will the Billion Oyster Project claim to have successfully restored 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor by 2035?", "negated": "Will the Billion Oyster Project not claim to have successfully restored 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor by 2035?" }, { "id": "M6602", "original": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?", "negated": "Will TBC not complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?" }, { "id": "G2175", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will no negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?" }, { "id": "M10028", "original": "Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?", "negated": "Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be equal or lower in 2022 than 2021?" }, { "id": "M10152", "original": "Will a major successful ransomware attack hit a US meatpacking company by May 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will a major successful ransomware attack not hit a US meatpacking company by May 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10790", "original": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Dnipro not be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8669", "original": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", "negated": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force not be further restricted by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10551", "original": "Will at least 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will 50,000 or fewer Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "M9540", "original": "Will Apple buy Peloton before 2050?", "negated": "Will Apple not buy Peloton before 2050?" }, { "id": "C154", "original": "[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?", "negated": "[Experimental] COVID-19 did not originate in a lab in Wuhan, China." }, { "id": "M8074", "original": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", "negated": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we not find evidence of macrofauna?" }, { "id": "M7640", "original": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?", "negated": "Will Dominic Cummings not return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?" }, { "id": "M10154", "original": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7481", "original": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?", "negated": "Will the S&P 500 not rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?" }, { "id": "M8050", "original": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will Israel not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M9513", "original": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10626", "original": "Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?", "negated": "Will Blake Masters not be President of the United States before 2070?" }, { "id": "M9572", "original": "Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "negated": "Will the Supreme Court not find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?" }, { "id": "G2376", "original": "Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?", "negated": "Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick not reach $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?" }, { "id": "M9524", "original": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will Israel not be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M10603", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 750 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7217", "original": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", "negated": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty not be Adopted Before 2029?" }, { "id": "M8649", "original": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", "negated": "By 2100, will fewer than 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?" }, { "id": "M7872", "original": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will the United States not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10686", "original": "Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?", "negated": "Will Obergefell v. Hodges not be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10251", "original": "Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?", "negated": "Will CAIDA not measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?" }, { "id": "G2240", "original": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?", "negated": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar not cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?" }, { "id": "M7300", "original": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", "negated": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities not diverge by 2030?" }, { "id": "M8609", "original": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", "negated": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this not cause >400 million fatalities?" }, { "id": "M10197", "original": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?", "negated": "Will no NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9958", "original": "In 2022 and 2023, will one or more members of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested?", "negated": "In 2022 and 2023, will no members of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested?" }, { "id": "M7859", "original": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will Turkey not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7829", "original": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?", "negated": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will no US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?" }, { "id": "M8055", "original": "Will Netanyahu's trial end in conviction?", "negated": "Will Netanyahu's trial not end in conviction?" }, { "id": "C162", "original": "Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will the World Health Organization not declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8183", "original": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", "negated": "Will a major cryptid discovery not be made by 2040?" }, { "id": "M8109", "original": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran does not get a nuclear bomb by then?", "negated": "Will Saudi Arabia not normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran does not get a nuclear bomb by then?" }, { "id": "M7631", "original": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", "negated": "Will Israel not recognize Palestine by 2070?" }, { "id": "M10828", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8662", "original": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", "negated": "Will China not reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?" }, { "id": "G2292", "original": "Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?", "negated": "Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state not accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?" }, { "id": "M9492", "original": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will Israel not be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M7236", "original": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Bitfinex not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "C373", "original": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M8766", "original": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", "negated": "Will the Omicron variant be equally or more lethal than Delta?" }, { "id": "M10702", "original": "Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will the US not enter a recession by January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M9988", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will medical infrastructure be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will medical infrastructure not be attacked?" }, { "id": "M10986", "original": "Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US CDC not recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7860", "original": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will Pakistan not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10556", "original": "Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will 50,000 or fewer Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10735", "original": "Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8299", "original": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", "negated": "Will the Fed not decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?" }, { "id": "M10834", "original": "Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?", "negated": "Will half or less of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?" }, { "id": "M8600", "original": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "negated": "Will oral semaglutide not be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?" }, { "id": "M10851", "original": "Will Norway join the EU before 2035?", "negated": "Will Norway not join the EU before 2035?" }, { "id": "M9535", "original": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will the USA not be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M10931", "original": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?", "negated": "Will Coinbase not file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10266", "original": "Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?" }, { "id": "M9734", "original": "Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?", "negated": "Will China's GDP Not Overtake the US Before 2030?" }, { "id": "M8341", "original": "By 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", "negated": "By 2024, will the ACLU not argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?" }, { "id": "G2239", "original": "Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?", "negated": "Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 not exceed the total for January through September 2021?" }, { "id": "M10109", "original": "Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will China not make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7921", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?", "negated": "Will mean probability outperform mean log-odds for the next 300 questions?" }, { "id": "M8484", "original": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", "negated": "Will Trafalgar Group not outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?" }, { "id": "M10734", "original": "Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?" }, { "id": "M10118", "original": "Will a major cloud service go down before March 8, 2023?", "negated": "Will a major cloud service not go down before March 8, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10057", "original": "Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "C958", "original": "In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?", "negated": "In the next six months, will U.S. and China not announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?" }, { "id": "G2278", "original": "Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?" }, { "id": "G2226", "original": "Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?", "negated": "Will Tunisia not hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?" }, { "id": "M7405", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?" }, { "id": "M10294", "original": "Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia by 2024?", "negated": "Will Israel not impose sanctions on Russia by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7209", "original": "Will any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?", "negated": "Will no citizens and companies be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?" }, { "id": "M6604", "original": "Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?", "negated": "Will annual U.S. inflation not reach 100% in any year before 2050?" }, { "id": "M10426", "original": "Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?", "negated": "Will Mochizuki not retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?" }, { "id": "G2291", "original": "Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?", "negated": "Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia not result in ten or more fatalities?" }, { "id": "M8375", "original": "Will more than 1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", "negated": "Will less than or equal to 1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?" }, { "id": "M8381", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that not cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?" }, { "id": "M10056", "original": "Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7442", "original": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", "negated": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company not release a consumer product by 2030?" }, { "id": "M7237", "original": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Coinbase not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M10130", "original": "Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) not drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M8752", "original": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", "negated": "Will the U.S. CDC not classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7340", "original": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", "negated": "Will there not be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?" }, { "id": "M10147", "original": "Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?", "negated": "Will it not become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7565", "original": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", "negated": "Will there not be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?" }, { "id": "M10105", "original": "Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?", "negated": "Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program not pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?" }, { "id": "M8483", "original": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", "negated": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump lose?" }, { "id": "M9568", "original": "Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?", "negated": "Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture not cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?" }, { "id": "M9585", "original": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "negated": "Will Leondra Kruger not be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10826", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before June 10, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10423", "original": "Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Belarus not invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10604", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9943", "original": "Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9998", "original": "Will Ukraine join the Union State by 2023?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not join the Union State by 2023?" }, { "id": "C372", "original": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M8328", "original": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", "negated": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI not be part of a non-profit corporation?" }, { "id": "M9991", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will banking or finance systems be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will banking or finance systems not be attacked?" }, { "id": "M9487", "original": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", "negated": "Does Omicron not have a shorter generation interval than Delta?" }, { "id": "M8474", "original": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", "negated": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 not hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?" }, { "id": "M7408", "original": "Will the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?", "negated": "Will the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon not be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?" }, { "id": "M7966", "original": "Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?", "negated": "Will there not be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?" }, { "id": "G2342", "original": "Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses become law before 1 March 2023?", "negated": "Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses not become law before 1 March 2023?" }, { "id": "C372", "original": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M6427", "original": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "negated": "Will GB News not be broadcasting in 2025?" }, { "id": "C1010", "original": "In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?", "negated": "In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. not list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?" }, { "id": "M9963", "original": "Will the U.N. open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps by 2024?", "negated": "Will the U.N. not open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps by 2024?" }, { "id": "M10137", "original": "Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023??", "negated": "Will there not be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023??" }, { "id": "M8364", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?" }, { "id": "M10574", "original": "Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?", "negated": "Will no 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?" }, { "id": "M10965", "original": "Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?", "negated": "Will the United States not place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?" }, { "id": "M10121", "original": "Will Russia purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia not purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8771", "original": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse not be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "G2375", "original": "Before 1 November 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers?", "negated": "Before 1 November 2022, will no executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers?" }, { "id": "M9962", "original": "Will China develop a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance in food of animal and plant origin by 2024 as according to the WHO?", "negated": "Will China not develop a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance in food of animal and plant origin by 2024 as according to the WHO?" }, { "id": "M8325", "original": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?", "negated": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI not be part of a nationalized organization?" }, { "id": "M7216", "original": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?", "negated": "Will there be no AI Sputnik moment before 2050?" }, { "id": "M7994", "original": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", "negated": "Will no inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?" }, { "id": "M7549", "original": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", "negated": "Will the sunflower conjecture not be resolved before 2060?" }, { "id": "M7544", "original": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", "negated": "Will Próspera at no point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?" }, { "id": "M10928", "original": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?", "negated": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8523", "original": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?", "negated": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners not be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?" }, { "id": "G2331", "original": "Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?", "negated": "Before 5 August 2022, will no NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?" }, { "id": "M10768", "original": "Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?", "negated": "Will Russia not lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?" }, { "id": "M10555", "original": "Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?", "negated": "Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers not be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7903", "original": "Is the Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle equal to its Theta function?", "negated": "Is the Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle not equal to its Theta function?" }, { "id": "M9746", "original": "Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations from the Minsk II agreement with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not fulfill its obligations from the Minsk II agreement with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?" }, { "id": "M8032", "original": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "negated": "Will Iran not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?" }, { "id": "M8379", "original": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "negated": "Will no country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?" }, { "id": "M9740", "original": "Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?", "negated": "Will Niger not experience a coup before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8835", "original": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", "negated": "Will the U.S. not phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?" }, { "id": "M10111", "original": "Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "negated": "Will there not be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?" }, { "id": "M8394", "original": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", "negated": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to fewer than 10 million fatalities?" }, { "id": "M9311", "original": "Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?", "negated": "Will Ron Johnson not win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?" }, { "id": "M7831", "original": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", "negated": "In 2024 or 2025, will no dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?" }, { "id": "M7599", "original": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", "negated": "Will the United States not withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?" }, { "id": "M7452", "original": "Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?", "negated": "Will there not be a US-Russia war before 2050?" }, { "id": "M8629", "original": "If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?", "negated": "If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by less than 20%?" }, { "id": "M7523", "original": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", "negated": "Will there not be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?" }, { "id": "M10122", "original": "Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?", "negated": "Will no single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?" }, { "id": "M10140", "original": "Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will no cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2372", "original": "Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "negated": "Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States not launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?" }, { "id": "M7738", "original": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "negated": "Will Twitter not flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?" }, { "id": "M10459", "original": "Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting?", "negated": "Will the Federal Reserve never adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting?" }, { "id": "M8605", "original": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "negated": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a natural origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a lab leak hypothesis?" }, { "id": "G2276", "original": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA) announce an increase in bridge and/or tunnel tolls for Class 1 vehicles for 2022 or 2023?", "negated": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA) not announce an increase in bridge and/or tunnel tolls for Class 1 vehicles for 2022 or 2023?" }, { "id": "M10673", "original": "Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "negated": "Will Pete Buttigieg not be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?" }, { "id": "M9051", "original": "Given that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?", "negated": "Given that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by less than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?" }, { "id": "G2138", "original": "As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW?", "negated": "As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program not reach or exceed 400 MW?" }, { "id": "M10084", "original": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?", "negated": "Will Sweden not join NATO before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7922", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", "negated": "Will mean log-odds not outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?" }, { "id": "M7550", "original": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", "negated": "Is the sunflower conjecture false?" }, { "id": "M8005", "original": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?", "negated": "Will Jair Bolsonaro fail to stage a coup by January 2, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8102", "original": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?", "negated": "Will no university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?" }, { "id": "M8675", "original": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", "negated": "Will space debris not cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?" }, { "id": "M8644", "original": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", "negated": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation not be inadvertent?" }, { "id": "G2151", "original": "Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?", "negated": "Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook not announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?" }, { "id": "M9989", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will transportation or aviation systems be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will no transportation or aviation systems be attacked?" }, { "id": "M8146", "original": "Will more than 2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?", "negated": "Will less than or equal to 2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?" }, { "id": "M8992", "original": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", "negated": "Will the US not re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10635", "original": "In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?", "negated": "In 2022, will the Future Fund give less than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?" }, { "id": "M7920", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?", "negated": "Will mean log-odds not outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?" }, { "id": "M9701", "original": "Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "negated": "Will Carrick Flynn lose the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?" }, { "id": "M10149", "original": "Will a major successful ransomware attack hit a US Nuclear Power company by May 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will no major successful ransomware attack hit a US Nuclear Power company by May 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10709", "original": "Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?", "negated": "Will China's CO2 emissions not peak before 2030?" }, { "id": "M7981", "original": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?", "negated": "Will no inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?" }, { "id": "M7333", "original": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", "negated": "Will there not be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?" }, { "id": "M9957", "original": "Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?", "negated": "Will China not have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?" }, { "id": "M10875", "original": "Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?", "negated": "Will Facebook not decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8460", "original": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", "negated": "Will the IMF not approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?" }, { "id": "M9911", "original": "Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?", "negated": "Will Australia not operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?" }, { "id": "M7803", "original": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?", "negated": "Before 2070, Will there not be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?" }, { "id": "M8981", "original": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?", "negated": "Will China's GDP not grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?" }, { "id": "G2327", "original": "As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?", "negated": "As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) not rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?" }, { "id": "M9534", "original": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will the USA not be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M7335", "original": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", "negated": "Will Freedom House not report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?" }, { "id": "M10832", "original": "Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10744", "original": "Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?", "negated": "Will Hungary not leave the EU before 2030?" }, { "id": "M6424", "original": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", "negated": "Will Substack not cancel anyone before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8403", "original": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", "negated": "By 2050, will less than 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?" }, { "id": "M8556", "original": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", "negated": "Will less than or equal to half of the US Senate be women in 2050?" }, { "id": "M10865", "original": "Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10008", "original": "Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?", "negated": "Will Romania not unite with Moldova before 2025?" }, { "id": "M10045", "original": "Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2290", "original": "Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?", "negated": "Before 5 August 2022, will Russia not detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?" }, { "id": "M7994", "original": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", "negated": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy not be approved by the FDA before 2041?" }, { "id": "M7575", "original": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", "negated": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party lose the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?" }, { "id": "M7101", "original": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "negated": "Will the Forethought Foundation have fewer than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?" }, { "id": "C373", "original": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M7227", "original": "Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?" }, { "id": "M8383", "original": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", "negated": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this not cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?" }, { "id": "M10036", "original": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and China be on the same side?", "negated": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and China not be on the same side?" }, { "id": "M9594", "original": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will India not be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M10662", "original": "Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not acquire over 50% of Twitter by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M9986", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will the electric grid be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will the electric grid not be attacked?" }, { "id": "M10133", "original": "Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?", "negated": "Will the US executive branch not attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10495", "original": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Dnipro not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10004", "original": "Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will no major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M9523", "original": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", "negated": "Will Peloton not file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8805", "original": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", "negated": "Will the New York Yankees not win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?" }, { "id": "M8740", "original": "By 2032, will the California Constitution be amended to restrict the state's authority to set zoning policy?", "negated": "By 2032, will the California Constitution not be amended to restrict the state's authority to set zoning policy?" }, { "id": "M10952", "original": "Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US State by 2030?", "negated": "Will inter-racial marriage not be banned in any US State by 2030?" }, { "id": "G2295", "original": "Will Rafael Nadal win the 2022 Men's French Open?", "negated": "Will Rafael Nadal not win the 2022 Men's French Open?" }, { "id": "G2304", "original": "Will a team from England win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final?", "negated": "Will a team from England not win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final?" }, { "id": "M7109", "original": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?", "negated": "Will Bitcoin not move away from proof-of-work by 2035?" }, { "id": "M8409", "original": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", "negated": "Will aerial drones not deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?" }, { "id": "M7239", "original": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Huobi not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M8405", "original": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", "negated": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States not be passed before February 1st 2023?" }, { "id": "M7250", "original": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?", "negated": "By the year 2100, will no jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?" }, { "id": "M9117", "original": "Will Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden all have Queens regnant simultaneously before the year 2100?", "negated": "Will Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden not all have Queens regnant simultaneously before the year 2100?" }, { "id": "G2299", "original": "Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating fall below 38.5%?", "negated": "Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating not fall below 38.5%?" }, { "id": "M8786", "original": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?", "negated": "Will Russia not annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?" }, { "id": "M9060", "original": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "negated": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by less than 95%?" }, { "id": "M10295", "original": "Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia by 2024?", "negated": "Will Turkey not declare sanctions on Russia by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8831", "original": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", "negated": "Will Elizabeth Truss not become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?" }, { "id": "G2159", "original": "Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?", "negated": "Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene not be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?" }, { "id": "C372", "original": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will China not seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M10119", "original": "Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?", "negated": "Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain not be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9751", "original": "Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?", "negated": "Will any jurisdiction not adopt futarchy by 2070?" }, { "id": "M7740", "original": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?", "negated": "Will marijuana not be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?" }, { "id": "M10874", "original": "Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?", "negated": "Will the weights of the 175B parameter model not be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?" }, { "id": "M9797", "original": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will Microsoft not acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8899", "original": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?", "negated": "Will Hungary not declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?" }, { "id": "M7849", "original": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", "negated": "Will Republicans lose control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?" }, { "id": "M7238", "original": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will BitMEX not default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M8572", "original": "Will Brian Riedl win his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?", "negated": "Will Brian Riedl lose his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?" }, { "id": "M7790", "original": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?", "negated": "Will New York City not experience a hurricane by 2030?" }, { "id": "C349", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces not fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M10249", "original": "Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?", "negated": "Will Georgia not impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8897", "original": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", "negated": "Will Israel and Palestine not hold peace talks in 2022?" }, { "id": "M9941", "original": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "negated": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities not be under Russian military control by June 2022?" }, { "id": "M9188", "original": "Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?", "negated": "Will the UK not authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?" }, { "id": "C939", "original": "Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?", "negated": "Will the World Health Organization not declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?" }, { "id": "M7892", "original": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", "negated": "By 2023, will no Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?" }, { "id": "M7808", "original": "Will Iran recognize Israel by 2070?", "negated": "Will Iran not recognize Israel by 2070?" }, { "id": "M10757", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10493", "original": "Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Odessa not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9122", "original": "Will the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?", "negated": "Will the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern not originate in an low-vaccination nation?" }, { "id": "G2378", "original": "Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000?", "negated": "Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US not reach or exceed 120,000?" }, { "id": "M8779", "original": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", "negated": "Will SpaceX not file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?" }, { "id": "M10858", "original": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?", "negated": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 not resolve ambiguously?" }, { "id": "M7819", "original": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?", "negated": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan not be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?" }, { "id": "M7444", "original": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?", "negated": "Will Elon Musk not be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?" }, { "id": "M8103", "original": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?", "negated": "Will extinction not occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?" }, { "id": "G2329", "original": "Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?", "negated": "Will the European Central Bank (ECB) not announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?" }, { "id": "M8896", "original": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "negated": "Will the US not rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?" }, { "id": "M7322", "original": "Will Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?", "negated": "Will Donald Trump not become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?" }, { "id": "M10209", "original": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2022?", "negated": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy not be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2022?" }, { "id": "M7918", "original": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", "negated": "Will mean log-odds underperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?" }, { "id": "M8374", "original": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", "negated": "Will <100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?" }, { "id": "M8998", "original": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", "negated": "Will no US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8399", "original": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", "negated": "Will there be fewer than 10 nuclear-armed states until at least 2035?" }, { "id": "M10494", "original": "Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "negated": "Will Sumy not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?" }, { "id": "M10791", "original": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?", "negated": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin not be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?" }, { "id": "M10767", "original": "Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?", "negated": "Will Moldova not control Transnistria before 2028?" }, { "id": "M10148", "original": "Will a major successful ransomware attack hit a US aviation company by May 30, 2023?", "negated": "Will no major successful ransomware attacks hit US aviation companies by May 30, 2023?" }, { "id": "M10126", "original": "Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against one or more U.S.-based systems that results in the compromise of more than 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?", "negated": "Will a new zero day vulnerability NOT be exploited against one or more U.S.-based systems that results in the compromise of more than 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?" }, { "id": "M7882", "original": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", "negated": "By 2030, will less than 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?" }, { "id": "M7832", "original": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?", "negated": "In January 2025, will we not see \"3 US Code $ 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?" }, { "id": "M10601", "original": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "negated": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before May 20, 2022?" }, { "id": "M9743", "original": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?", "negated": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy not remain President of Ukraine by 2023?" }, { "id": "M9207", "original": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?", "negated": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China not exceed 50,000 before 2023?" }, { "id": "M9825", "original": "Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?", "negated": "Will Poland not legalize gay marriage by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10736", "original": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Ukraine not have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8757", "original": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?", "negated": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?" }, { "id": "M8663", "original": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?", "negated": "Will no federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?" }, { "id": "M10116", "original": "Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?", "negated": "Will it not become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?" }, { "id": "M7377", "original": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?", "negated": "Will the VIX Index not see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?" }, { "id": "M10120", "original": "Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?", "negated": "Will a cyberattack not directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10766", "original": "Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?", "negated": "Will Georgia not control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?" }, { "id": "M10021", "original": "Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "negated": "Will critical EU or UK infrastructure not be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?" }, { "id": "G2259", "original": "Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "negated": "Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will no country formally progress in the NATO accession process?" }, { "id": "M8367", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?" }, { "id": "C349", "original": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "negated": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?" }, { "id": "M9042", "original": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?", "negated": "Will >40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?" }, { "id": "M8646", "original": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?", "negated": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods not decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?" }, { "id": "M9990", "original": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will communications networks be attacked?", "negated": "If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will something besides communication networks be attacked?" }, { "id": "M9121", "original": "Will Tether collapse before 2023?", "negated": "Will Tether not collapse before 2023?" }, { "id": "G2300", "original": "Will Tesla produce at least 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022?", "negated": "Will Tesla produce fewer than 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022?" }, { "id": "M8393", "original": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?", "negated": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement not be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?" }, { "id": "M7598", "original": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?", "negated": "Will no one agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?" }, { "id": "M7215", "original": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", "negated": "Will the SEC not approve any bitcoin ETFs before January 20, 2025?" }, { "id": "M8322", "original": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", "negated": "Will unemployment not be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?" }, { "id": "M10872", "original": "Will Lawrence v. Texas be overturned by 2030?", "negated": "Will Lawrence v. Texas not be overturned by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10108", "original": "Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?", "negated": "Will the US not claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?" }, { "id": "M8613", "original": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", "negated": "Will no non-state actors have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?" }, { "id": "M8880", "original": "Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?", "negated": "Will Omicron not be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?" }, { "id": "G2287", "original": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?", "negated": "Will Vladimir Putin continue to be the president of the Russian Federation until at least 1 January 2023?" }, { "id": "M9532", "original": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "negated": "Will China not be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?" }, { "id": "M10305", "original": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?", "negated": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors not cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8324", "original": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?", "negated": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI not be part of a for-profit corporation?" }, { "id": "M8638", "original": "Will there be at least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", "negated": "Will there be less than 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?" }, { "id": "M10124", "original": "Will a popular online identity verification service was breached in 2022?", "negated": "Will no popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?" }, { "id": "M10765", "original": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?", "negated": "Will no Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?" }, { "id": "M10246", "original": "Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?", "negated": "Will a coup or regime change not take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?" }, { "id": "M9999", "original": "Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?", "negated": "Will Russia not annex Transnistria in 2022?" }, { "id": "M7841", "original": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", "negated": "Will there not be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?" }, { "id": "M8677", "original": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", "negated": "Will small modular nuclear reactors not supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?" }, { "id": "M10052", "original": "Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?", "negated": "Will NATO not declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8493", "original": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", "negated": "In 2050, will fewer than half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?" }, { "id": "M10541", "original": "Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?", "negated": "Will Hunter Biden not be indicted before November 5, 2024?" }, { "id": "M7722", "original": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will no NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "G2250", "original": "Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "negated": "Before 1 December 2022, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?" }, { "id": "G2401", "original": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?" }, { "id": "G2409", "original": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023?", "negated": "Will the UN not declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023?" }, { "id": "G2410", "original": "Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023? ", "negated": "Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter not close before 1 January 2023?" }, { "id": "G2418", "original": "Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US become law before 8 November 2022?", "negated": "Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US not become law before 8 November 2022?" }, { "id": "M7100", "original": "Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?", "negated": "Will the Nonlinear Fund have fewer than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?" }, { "id": "M7403", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7404", "original": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", "negated": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation not cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7407", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7412", "original": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7449", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7450", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7451", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?" }, { "id": "M7454", "original": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7455", "original": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", "negated": "Will there be no fatalities due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?" }, { "id": "M7551", "original": "Will the automated encipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?", "negated": "Will the automated encipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts not change history?" }, { "id": "M8127", "original": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8128", "original": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?", "negated": "Will no fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8129", "original": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", "negated": "Before 2024, will Iran not possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?" }, { "id": "M8130", "original": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", "negated": "Before 2024, will North Korea not possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?" }, { "id": "M8131", "original": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?", "negated": "Will <100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8134", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?" }, { "id": "M8135", "original": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", "negated": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8138", "original": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", "negated": "Will fewer than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?" }, { "id": "M8139", "original": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?", "negated": "Will China have less than 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?" }, { "id": "M8140", "original": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "negated": "Will India not have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?" }, { "id": "M8141", "original": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", "negated": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8142", "original": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?", "negated": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war not be publicly available by 2023?" }, { "id": "M8144", "original": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?", "negated": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) not be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8147", "original": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?", "negated": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries not offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8148", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?" }, { "id": "M8150", "original": "Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", "negated": "Will there be <3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?" }, { "id": "M8159", "original": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8160", "original": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a US-Iran war by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8534", "original": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", "negated": "Will North Korea not launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8535", "original": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "negated": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must not be made by humans?" }, { "id": "M8536", "original": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "negated": "By 2024, will Russia not clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?" }, { "id": "M8537", "original": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "negated": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must not be made by humans?" }, { "id": "M8539", "original": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "negated": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must not be made by humans?" }, { "id": "M8540", "original": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?", "negated": "Will there not be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8541", "original": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", "negated": "Will the US not rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8542", "original": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?", "negated": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation does not occur by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8544", "original": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?", "negated": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be <20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?" }, { "id": "M8546", "original": "Will any state leave NATO by 2024?", "negated": "Will any state not leave NATO by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8547", "original": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "negated": "By 2024, will the US announce it does not intend to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?" }, { "id": "M8549", "original": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "negated": "Will no additional state join NATO before 2024?" }, { "id": "M8550", "original": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "negated": "By 2024, will Russia announce it does not intend to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?" }, { "id": "M8553", "original": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?", "negated": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur not make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?" }, { "id": "M8584", "original": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "negated": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?" }, { "id": "M8585", "original": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "negated": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 not be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?" }, { "id": "M8586", "original": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "negated": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 not be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?" }, { "id": "M8587", "original": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan join the NPT by 2024?", "negated": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan not join the NPT by 2024?" }, { "id": "M8588", "original": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", "negated": "By 2024, will no party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?" }, { "id": "M8589", "original": "By 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?", "negated": "By 2024, will the US officially announce it does not intend to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?" }, { "id": "M8590", "original": "Will South Sudan join the NPT by 2024?", "negated": "Will South Sudan not join the NPT by 2024?" }, { "id": "M10682", "original": "Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?", "negated": "Will Praxis Society not have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?" }, { "id": "M10733", "original": "Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk by the end of 2022?", "negated": "Will Twitter's board not accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk by the end of 2022?" }, { "id": "M10789", "original": "Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?", "negated": "Will Andrej Babiš not win the next Czech Republic presidental election?" }, { "id": "M10954", "original": "Will the US Government designate Russia a \"State Sponsor of Terrorism\" by 2023?", "negated": "Will the US Government not designate Russia a \"State Sponsor of Terrorism\" by 2023?" }, { "id": "M10962", "original": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?", "negated": "Will US not offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?" }, { "id": "M10969", "original": "Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will James Charles have less than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M11105", "original": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?", "negated": "Will Stacey Abrams not be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?" }, { "id": "M11111", "original": "Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?", "negated": "Will Governor Newsom not be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?" }, { "id": "M11112", "original": "If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond militarily?", "negated": "If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will the US not respond militarily?" }, { "id": "M11122", "original": "Will \"slaughterbots\" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?", "negated": "Will \"slaughterbots\" not kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?" }, { "id": "M11124", "original": "Will the U.S. federal government pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens?", "negated": "Will the U.S. federal government fail to pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens?" }, { "id": "M11127", "original": "If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?", "negated": "If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China not attack the United States?" }, { "id": "M11128", "original": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "negated": "Will Elizabeth Kim not win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?" }, { "id": "M11129", "original": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "negated": "Will the President of the United States not be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?" }, { "id": "M11175", "original": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "negated": "Will AI not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11177", "original": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "negated": "Will AI not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11178", "original": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will Boris Johnson not be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M11179", "original": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "negated": "Will an AI not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11180", "original": "Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?", "negated": "Will J.D. Vance not win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?" }, { "id": "M11181", "original": "Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?", "negated": "Will the Peoples Democratic Party not win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?" }, { "id": "M11188", "original": "Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?", "negated": "Will an AI not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11190", "original": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "negated": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) not win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?" }, { "id": "M11198", "original": "Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?", "negated": "Will an AI not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11199", "original": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "negated": "Will fewer than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?" }, { "id": "M11206", "original": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "negated": "Will Blake Masters not win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?" }, { "id": "M11216", "original": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "negated": "Will Ron DeSantis not become US president by 2029?" }, { "id": "M11229", "original": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "negated": "Will personal ID authentication not be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?" }, { "id": "M11265", "original": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "negated": "Will Twitter not make verification generally available before July 2023?" }, { "id": "M11279", "original": "Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?", "negated": "Will Rick Caruso not be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?" }, { "id": "M11295", "original": "Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?", "negated": "Will a Republican not be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?" }, { "id": "M11301", "original": "Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "negated": "Will Beto O'Rourke lose the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?" }, { "id": "M11324", "original": "Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?", "negated": "Will AI not be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?" } ]