[ { "question": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government not pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?", "id": "G1411", "background": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Financial Times, AP, IPE, El Universal [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 (Question #1417). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.", "publish_time": "2019-12-04 16:32:31.645000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?", "id": "G1411", "background": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Financial Times, AP, IPE, El Universal [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 (Question #1417). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.", "publish_time": "2019-12-04 16:32:31.645000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government not pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?", "id": "G1412", "background": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Reuters, IPE, Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 (Question #1418). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.", "publish_time": "2019-12-04 16:31:16.367000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?", "id": "G1412", "background": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Reuters, IPE, Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 (Question #1418). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.", "publish_time": "2019-12-04 16:31:16.367000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?", "id": "G1698", "background": "Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).This question is the longer-term companion of question #1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.", "publish_time": "2020-07-10 17:01:00.551000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 2.2 million", "Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive", "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million", "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", "More than 4.0 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures not rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "id": "G1715", "background": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).", "publish_time": "2020-07-31 16:57:33.484000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:07+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "id": "G1715", "background": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).", "publish_time": "2020-07-31 16:57:33.484000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:07+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate not expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "id": "G1718", "background": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).", "publish_time": "2020-07-31 16:57:49.226000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 18:30:26+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "id": "G1718", "background": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).", "publish_time": "2020-07-31 16:57:49.226000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 18:30:26+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "id": "G1741", "background": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (CNBC, TechCrunch, Starlink). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.", "publish_time": "2020-08-14 16:55:36.956000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 January 2021", "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "Not before 1 July 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?", "id": "G1763", "background": "The Arab League consists of 22 member states (BBC, CNN, Arab League). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow (France24, Economist, Whitehouse.gov). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count (Guardian).", "publish_time": "2020-08-28 17:01:34.958000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-28 07:01:46+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "2 or fewer", "3", "4", "5", "6 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee not announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "G1764", "background": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, Dept. of State, History.com). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (Economist, Daily Sabah, Politico, Olympic.org).", "publish_time": "2020-08-28 17:01:39.793000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Sports", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "G1764", "background": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, Dept. of State, History.com). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (Economist, Daily Sabah, Politico, Olympic.org).", "publish_time": "2020-08-28 17:01:39.793000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Sports", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero did not render the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?", "id": "G1774", "background": "After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (Kaiser Family Foundation, Law.cornell.edu (see §(3)(A)), The Hill). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (Politico, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-04 16:49:14.797000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?", "id": "G1774", "background": "After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (Kaiser Family Foundation, Law.cornell.edu (see §(3)(A)), The Hill). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (Politico, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-04 16:49:14.797000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?", "id": "G1776", "background": "Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (CNN). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.", "publish_time": "2020-09-04 16:49:21.643000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-13 18:00:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 January 2021", "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", "Not before 1 October 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1780", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:03.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1780", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:03.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1781", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:05.687000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1781", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:05.687000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "id": "G1788", "background": "Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (BBC, Sky Sports, Goal, Premier League). ", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:22.759000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-23 07:01:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Before 19 October 2020", "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020", "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021", "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021", "Not before 24 May 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "By 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson remain prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "id": "G1789", "background": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist, BBC, Independent).", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:31.695000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-18 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "id": "G1789", "background": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist, BBC, Independent).", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:31.695000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-18 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "id": "G1790", "background": "The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (UEFA, UEFA (Clubs)). ", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:42.811000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-29 07:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "England", "France", "Germany", "Italy", "Spain", "Another country", "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain president of Turkey until 15 July 2021?", "id": "G1792", "background": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:57:50.519000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?", "id": "G1792", "background": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:57:50.519000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is constitutional?", "id": "G1796", "background": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:58:12.011000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?", "id": "G1796", "background": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:58:12.011000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "id": "G1798", "background": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).", "publish_time": "2020-10-02 16:52:56.794000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "Less than 2.00%", "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", "More than 8.00%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1780", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:03.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1780", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:03.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1781", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:05.687000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1781", "background": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.", "publish_time": "2020-09-11 16:53:05.687000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "id": "G1788", "background": "Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (BBC, Sky Sports, Goal, Premier League). ", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:22.759000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-23 07:01:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Before 19 October 2020", "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020", "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021", "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021", "Not before 24 May 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "By 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson remain prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "id": "G1789", "background": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist, BBC, Independent).", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:31.695000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-18 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "id": "G1789", "background": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist, BBC, Independent).", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:31.695000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-18 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "id": "G1790", "background": "The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (UEFA, UEFA (Clubs)). ", "publish_time": "2020-09-18 16:49:42.811000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-29 07:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "England", "France", "Germany", "Italy", "Spain", "Another country", "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain president of Turkey until 15 July 2021?", "id": "G1792", "background": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:57:50.519000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?", "id": "G1792", "background": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:57:50.519000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is constitutional?", "id": "G1796", "background": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:58:12.011000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?", "id": "G1796", "background": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-09-25 16:58:12.011000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "id": "G1798", "background": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).", "publish_time": "2020-10-02 16:52:56.794000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "Less than 2.00%", "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", "More than 8.00%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "For every seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be more than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?", "id": "G1806", "background": "The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.", "publish_time": "2020-10-09 16:58:05.004000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-11 18:00:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?", "id": "G1806", "background": "The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.", "publish_time": "2020-10-09 16:58:05.004000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-11 18:00:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan not sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", "id": "G1815", "background": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:53:55.532000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", "id": "G1815", "background": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:53:55.532000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft not complete a successful test flight before 2022?", "id": "G1816", "background": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 (Boom Supersonic, BoomSupersonic.com, Flight Global). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:53:43.256000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?", "id": "G1816", "background": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 (Boom Supersonic, BoomSupersonic.com, Flight Global). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:53:43.256000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?", "id": "G1817", "background": "Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 (Government of Canada, U.S. Embassy - Canada, Bloomberg). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:53:28.553000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:01:38+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Foreign Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 December 2020", "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021", "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", "Not before 1 June 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?", "id": "G1818", "background": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons (Federation of American Scientists, ScienceMag.org, NY Times). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 (Defense News). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point (Defense News).", "publish_time": "2020-10-16 16:56:06.969000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:45+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "0", "1", "2", "3", "4 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon not announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", "id": "G1822", "background": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Medium, CNBC, Vox, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.", "publish_time": "2020-10-30 18:04:57.334000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:59+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", "id": "G1822", "background": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Medium, CNBC, Vox, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.", "publish_time": "2020-10-30 18:04:57.334000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:59+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be lower in FY 2021 than FY 2019?", "id": "G1823", "background": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants (Apple). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales (9 to 5 Mac, ABS-CBN). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 (Apple 10-K (2020), see page 21).", "publish_time": "2020-10-30 18:05:00.331000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-28 14:00:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?", "id": "G1823", "background": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants (Apple). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales (9 to 5 Mac, ABS-CBN). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 (Apple 10-K (2020), see page 21).", "publish_time": "2020-10-30 18:05:00.331000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-28 14:00:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. consume less energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?", "id": "G1840", "background": "A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:45.451000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:01:41+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Environment", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?", "id": "G1840", "background": "A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:45.451000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:01:41+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Environment", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region not be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?", "id": "G1841", "background": "On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (Economist, Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:54.179000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-12 07:01:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?", "id": "G1841", "background": "On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (Economist, Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:54.179000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-12 07:01:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon not exceed the 2020 total count?", "id": "G1842", "background": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 (Global Fire Emissions Database).", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:59.829000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?", "id": "G1842", "background": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 (Global Fire Emissions Database).", "publish_time": "2020-11-13 18:02:59.829000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "id": "G1850", "background": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (Economist). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.", "publish_time": "2020-11-27 16:37:02.969000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:28+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Less than 5.0%", "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", "More than 8.0%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro remain president of Brazil until 1 October 2021?", "id": "G1851", "background": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (Economist). ", "publish_time": "2020-11-27 16:37:07.493000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?", "id": "G1851", "background": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (Economist). ", "publish_time": "2020-11-27 16:37:07.493000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "id": "G1852", "background": "As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (Economist). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (Tesla Q1 2020, Tesla Q2 2020). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.", "publish_time": "2020-11-27 16:37:15.877000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 150,000", "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", "350,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?", "id": "G1853", "background": "Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 (Economist, CNN, Reuters). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed (Peruvian Times).", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 17:56:38.266000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-06 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", "A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)", "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)", "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", "Another candidate", "There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "id": "G1854", "background": "Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections (Economist, BBC). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 (Diplomat). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., BBC).", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 17:56:34.631000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, only for president", "Yes, only for parliament", "Yes, for both president and parliament", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" stayed above 20%?", "id": "G1855", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (ONS, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 17:56:31.305000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-03 07:01:12+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?", "id": "G1855", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (ONS, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 17:56:31.305000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-03 07:01:12+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "id": "G1858", "background": "The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-09 17:09:01.363000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "Less than $2.00", "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive", "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", "More than $3.50" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court not rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?", "id": "G1863", "background": "Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Bloomberg Law, National Law Review). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed (Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 17:46:05.204000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 14:30:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?", "id": "G1863", "background": "Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Bloomberg Law, National Law Review). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed (Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 17:46:05.204000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 14:30:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter not be announced by the author and/or publisher?", "id": "G1864", "background": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (NY Times, Express, Entertainment Weekly).", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 17:46:09.245000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:52+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?", "id": "G1864", "background": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (NY Times, Express, Entertainment Weekly).", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 17:46:09.245000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:52+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "id": "G1866", "background": "While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (CNN, CDC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.", "publish_time": "2020-12-16 01:19:23.056000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-03 22:00:02+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 April 2021", "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021", "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", "Not before 1 January 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?", "id": "G1867", "background": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China (Guardian, Toronto Star, CBC, South China Morning Post). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-16 01:19:25.694000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:42+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, only Michael Kovrig", "Yes, only Michael Spavor", "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea not sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1868", "background": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (Yahoo News, Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-16 01:19:28.457000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:21+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1868", "background": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (Yahoo News, Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-16 01:19:28.457000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:21+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1869", "background": "Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines (NY Times, Sinopharm, Sinovac, Guardian, BBC). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: AP, EMA, EMA - Approvals. For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: FDA - Vaccine Development, FDA - Emergency Preparedness. Emergency use approvals would count.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:41:14.455000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Yes, only by the FDA", "Yes, only by the EMA", "Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators not be launched in the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G1870", "background": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:41:18.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G1870", "background": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:41:18.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States and China not sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1872", "background": "The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 (U.S. Trade Representative, CNBC, Reuters, FOX Business, Reuters).", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:41:24.358000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1872", "background": "The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 (U.S. Trade Representative, CNBC, Reuters, FOX Business, Reuters).", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:41:24.358000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order not be signed or federal legislation not become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?", "id": "G1873", "background": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (Forbes, NY Times, Nerd Wallet). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (CNBC, Forbes). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 17:17:29.504000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-14 07:01:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?", "id": "G1873", "background": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (Forbes, NY Times, Nerd Wallet). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (CNBC, Forbes). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 17:17:29.504000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-14 07:01:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1875", "background": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 18:44:34.369000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, not launch a stablecoin?", "id": "G1876", "background": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 (CNBC, Diem, Securities. io, Investopedia). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 17:58:40.650000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?", "id": "G1876", "background": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 (CNBC, Diem, Securities. io, Investopedia). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 17:58:40.650000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar not exceed 9.00?", "id": "G1878", "background": "The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (Reuters, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 17:58:45.668000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-18 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?", "id": "G1878", "background": "The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (Reuters, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 17:58:45.668000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-18 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 not become law before 14 August 2021?", "id": "G1882", "background": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (CBS News, Council on Foreign Relations, Federation of American Scientists, Cornell, TechCrunch). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 15:52:49.210000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-14 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?", "id": "G1882", "background": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (CBS News, Council on Foreign Relations, Federation of American Scientists, Cornell, TechCrunch). ", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 15:52:49.210000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-14 07:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing yield for the 30 year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?", "id": "G1883", "background": "The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 15:52:51.606000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:11+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1.500", "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", "More than 3.000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "id": "G1884", "background": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (CNBC, NPR). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (Bloomberg - APPL, see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., Bloomberg - ARAMCO, Bloomberg - SAR).", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 15:52:54.058000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Yes, the most valuable in the world", "No, but the most valuable in the United States", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Daniel Ortega continue to be the president of Nicaragua until 11 January 2022?", "id": "G1891", "background": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution [in English]).", "publish_time": "2021-01-06 20:23:14.013000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-11 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?", "id": "G1891", "background": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution [in English]).", "publish_time": "2021-01-06 20:23:14.013000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-11 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "id": "G1893", "background": "AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues (CNBC, Motley Fool). ", "publish_time": "2021-01-06 20:28:08.090000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:07+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 April 2021", "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "Not before 1 July 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. not vote in the affirmative to form a union?", "id": "G1894", "background": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (Economist, NY Times, The Hill). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:37.966000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?", "id": "G1894", "background": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (Economist, NY Times, The Hill). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:37.966000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1895", "background": "Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections (Economist, Reuters). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:42.776000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:09+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador", "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate not reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1896", "background": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (Economist, S&P Global). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:45.998000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1896", "background": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (Economist, S&P Global). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:45.998000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Macedonia not announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?", "id": "G1897", "background": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government (Economist, Financial Times, OBC Transeuropa, Balkan Insight). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., OBC Transeuropa). The actual release of data is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:48.536000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 18:00:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?", "id": "G1897", "background": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government (Economist, Financial Times, OBC Transeuropa, Balkan Insight). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., OBC Transeuropa). The actual release of data is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-01-08 15:12:48.536000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 18:00:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel not visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?", "id": "G1900", "background": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong (Costa Rica News, The Moscow Times, Kyiv Post, Washington Post). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government (government.ru).", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:09.972000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-07 07:01:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?", "id": "G1900", "background": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong (Costa Rica News, The Moscow Times, Kyiv Post, Washington Post). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government (government.ru).", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:09.972000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-07 07:01:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "id": "G1902", "background": "Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (Economist, Moscow Times). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (RT, Forbes). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:19.291000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-19 07:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 226 seats", "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", "300 seats or more", "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Nicaragua not diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?", "id": "G1903", "background": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Springer Link, Taipei Times, AP). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e. g. , NY Times, CNN). ", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:23.533000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-07 07:01:42+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?", "id": "G1903", "background": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Springer Link, Taipei Times, AP). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e. g. , NY Times, CNN). ", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:23.533000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-07 07:01:42+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?", "id": "G1905", "background": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). ", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:32.704000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:14+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Less than $75 billion", "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", "More than $150 billion" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?", "id": "G1906", "background": "Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held (Reuters). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support (BBC, Reuters). The closing date for this question will not be extended.", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 15:28:38.068000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-11 17:00:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats", "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most ", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?", "id": "G1907", "background": "The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-15 20:33:54.473000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-18 07:01:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", "Not before 18 September 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the UN not declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?", "id": "G1908", "background": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country (UN, Radio Canada International, In Depth News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:33:57.723000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?", "id": "G1908", "background": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country (UN, Radio Canada International, In Depth News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:33:57.723000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "id": "G1910", "background": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-21 00:50:40.278000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", "id": "G1910", "background": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-21 00:50:40.278000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin not hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "id": "G1911", "background": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:32:10.834000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 12:00:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "id": "G1911", "background": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:32:10.834000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 12:00:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?", "id": "G1912", "background": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:38:26.769000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:22+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?", "id": "G1912", "background": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 15:38:26.769000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:22+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?", "id": "G1915", "background": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 (NPR, Supreme Court). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 14:12:21.332000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "0", "1", "2", "3 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the United States report fewer deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?", "id": "G1916", "background": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (WHO, see 'Deaths - cumulative total', European Union). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 14:19:31.502000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?", "id": "G1916", "background": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (WHO, see 'Deaths - cumulative total', European Union). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 14:19:31.502000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?", "id": "G1917", "background": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 14:36:56.303000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 07:01:02+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?", "id": "G1920", "background": "The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover (Economist, LA Times). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 (Box Office Mojo). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 15:29:21.807000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Less than $200 million", "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", "More than $1.75 billion" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "id": "G1925", "background": "The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions (NBA). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 (NBC Sports).", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:48:48.150000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-20 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Brooklyn Nets", "Los Angeles Clippers", "Los Angeles Lakers", "Milwaukee Bucks", "Another team", "There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Saudi Arabia not diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?", "id": "G1926", "background": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them (NPR, JPost). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., NY Times, CNN).", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:48:56.506000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?", "id": "G1926", "background": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them (NPR, JPost). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., NY Times, CNN).", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:48:56.506000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?", "id": "G1927", "background": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:49:01.978000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?", "id": "G1927", "background": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:49:01.978000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1928", "background": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (CNBC, SpaceNews). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (BBC, SpaceNews).", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:49:14.193000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Yes, only SpaceX", "Yes, only Virgin Galactic", "Yes, both", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia not result in five or more fatalities?", "id": "G1929", "background": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:49:32.761000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:11+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?", "id": "G1929", "background": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.", "publish_time": "2021-02-05 17:49:32.761000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:11+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1930", "background": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-02-10 19:10:13.540000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1930", "background": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-02-10 19:10:13.540000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Vladimir Putin remain the president of the Russian Federation until 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1931", "background": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 (Newsweek, Al Jazeera).", "publish_time": "2021-02-10 19:10:06.171000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1931", "background": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 (Newsweek, Al Jazeera).", "publish_time": "2021-02-10 19:10:06.171000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar not cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?", "id": "G1934", "background": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times. ) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" (Myanmar Constitution). ", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:37.968000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-05 08:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?", "id": "G1934", "background": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times. ) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" (Myanmar Constitution). ", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:37.968000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-05 08:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. not officially rejoin the JCPOA?", "id": "G1935", "background": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBC, Washington Post, Federation of American Scientists).", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:40.733000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?", "id": "G1935", "background": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBC, Washington Post, Federation of American Scientists).", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:40.733000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. neither formally seek to join nor formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?", "id": "G1936", "background": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Federal Register, Council on Foreign Relations, Asian Society Policy Institute).", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:44.108000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 08:01:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?", "id": "G1936", "background": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Federal Register, Council on Foreign Relations, Asian Society Policy Institute).", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 18:00:44.108000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 08:01:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "id": "G1937", "background": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). ", "publish_time": "2021-02-16 17:52:32.583000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 07:01:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) not trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1939", "background": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia). ", "publish_time": "2021-02-16 17:52:27.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:02+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1939", "background": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia). ", "publish_time": "2021-02-16 17:52:27.336000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:02+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "id": "G1940", "background": "The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 17:48:02.922000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health", "Economic Indicators", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Less than 5.4%", "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive", "More than 7.1%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1941", "background": "There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state (KCRA, NBC News). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot (Calmatters.org). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 17:48:05.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled", "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1942", "background": "Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum (Cardano, Securities.io, NASDAQ).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 17:48:08.024000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Less than $0.50", "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive", "More than $5.00" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "id": "G1943", "background": "With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 17:48:10.718000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-16 07:01:09+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Indicators", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1.000", "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", "More than 2.500" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "id": "G1944", "background": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 (Adamgrant.net). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (NY Times).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 20:58:45.693000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 4", "Between 4 and 8", "Between 9 and 13", "Between 14 and 18", "More than 18" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny not be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?", "id": "G1945", "background": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (Deutsche Welle, Moscow Times). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation [in Russian], Moscow Times).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 20:59:02.490000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?", "id": "G1945", "background": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (Deutsche Welle, Moscow Times). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation [in Russian], Moscow Times).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 20:59:02.490000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes do not violate federal antitrust law?", "id": "G1946", "background": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (NCAA). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (CBS Sports, Oyez). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (Supremecourt.gov).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 20:59:57.990000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-21 14:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?", "id": "G1946", "background": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (NCAA). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (CBS Sports, Oyez). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (Supremecourt.gov).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 20:59:57.990000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-21 14:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) remain below 20% before September 2021?", "id": "G1947", "background": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 21:00:15.809000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:22+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?", "id": "G1947", "background": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 21:00:15.809000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-17 14:00:22+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?", "id": "G1948", "background": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen (Economist, The Hill, FOXNews). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 21:01:03.962000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:14+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Sports", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 8,000,000", "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", "More than 14,000,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "id": "G1949", "background": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (BBC, Gov.cn, Brookings). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (BBC, Tribune India).", "publish_time": "2021-02-26 18:02:14.793000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:49+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "0", "1", "2 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be lower in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "id": "G1951", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).", "publish_time": "2021-02-26 18:02:19.489000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "id": "G1951", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).", "publish_time": "2021-02-26 18:02:19.489000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?", "id": "G1957", "background": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration (Independent, Reuters, VOA News, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.", "publish_time": "2021-03-05 17:56:46.707000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", "Yes, only launch an ICBM", "Yes, both", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Robinhood not receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?", "id": "G1958", "background": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (CNBC, CNET). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits (Business Insider, CNET). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" (Cornell).", "publish_time": "2021-03-05 17:56:49.399000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?", "id": "G1958", "background": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (CNBC, CNET). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits (Business Insider, CNET). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" (Cornell).", "publish_time": "2021-03-05 17:56:49.399000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "id": "G1960", "background": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (CNN, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:45.023000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-11 09:30:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 14.5 million", "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", "More than 19.0 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "id": "G1961", "background": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:50.017000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-29 20:00:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Less than $25 billion", "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", "More than $55 billion", "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft not dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1962", "background": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS (Economist, Boeing, Reuters, Space. com). ", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:56.831000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:11+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1962", "background": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS (Economist, Boeing, Reuters, Space. com). ", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:56.831000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:11+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US FDA not approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", "id": "G1963", "background": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (Economist, Fox News, Merck). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count (FDA, FDA).", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:59.110000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:42+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", "id": "G1963", "background": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (Economist, Fox News, Merck). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count (FDA, FDA).", "publish_time": "2021-03-12 17:49:59.110000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:42+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?", "id": "G1964", "background": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 (BLS). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.", "publish_time": "2021-03-17 16:34:03.169000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Indicators", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 1.7%", "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", "Higher than 3.1%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "id": "G1967", "background": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (NBC New York, Ballotpedia). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight).", "publish_time": "2021-03-19 16:44:16.316000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-22 07:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "Eric Adams", "Scott Stringer", "Maya Wiley", "Andrew Yang", "Someone else" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?", "id": "G1968", "background": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months (FAO, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO).", "publish_time": "2021-03-19 16:44:14.136000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "Less than 100.0", "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", "More than 130.0" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?", "id": "G1969", "background": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) (Investopedia, Vox, Benzinga). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 (SPACInsider). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.", "publish_time": "2021-03-19 16:44:11.619000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "Less than $100 billion", "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive", "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", "$180 billion or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?", "id": "G1970", "background": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-03-19 16:44:09.555000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-28 07:01:28+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) not be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1971", "background": "NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (Spectrum News, WABC). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page, nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 16:38:36.245000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-19 18:00:32+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?", "id": "G1971", "background": "NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (Spectrum News, WABC). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page, nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 16:38:36.245000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-19 18:00:32+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country not publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm before 15 September 2021?", "id": "G1972", "background": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (BBC, Deutsche Welle). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (CWC.gov, Arms Control Association, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (BBC, Arms Control Association).", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 16:38:33.394000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 07:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?", "id": "G1972", "background": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (BBC, Deutsche Welle). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (CWC.gov, Arms Control Association, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (BBC, Arms Control Association).", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 16:38:33.394000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 07:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scott Morrison remain prime minister of Australia until 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1973", "background": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (ABC Australia, Guardian, BBC). ", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:07.595000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1973", "background": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (ABC Australia, Guardian, BBC). ", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:07.595000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage not become law before 20 August 2021?", "id": "G1974", "background": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies (The Hill, WSJ). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell, US Dept. of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:12.476000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-20 07:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?", "id": "G1974", "background": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies (The Hill, WSJ). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell, US Dept. of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:12.476000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-20 07:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum not open to the general public before 1 August 2021?", "id": "G1975", "background": "After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (Economist, The Local (Germany), France 24, Humboldt Forum). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:16.970000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-20 14:30:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Health", "Entertainment", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?", "id": "G1975", "background": "After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (Economist, The Local (Germany), France 24, Humboldt Forum). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 16:28:16.970000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-20 14:30:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Health", "Entertainment", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?", "id": "G1981", "background": "China is looking to advance the internationalization of the renminbi (Reuters, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for December 2021 reported by SWIFT in its RMB Tracker monthly report when first released, expected in January 2022 (SWIFT). The relevant data can be found in the report's graph titled \"RMB's share as a global payments currency.\" In its March 2021 report, SWIFT reported the RMB's February 2021 share as a global payments currency at 2.20% (SWIFT - March 2021 Report).", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:06.916000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy" ], "choices": [ "Less than 2.00%", "Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive", "More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%", "3.00% or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) not engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?", "id": "G1982", "background": "Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-23 16:53:43.520000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?", "id": "G1982", "background": "Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-23 16:53:43.520000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which NHL team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final?", "id": "G1983", "background": "The 2021 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 9 July 2021 (NBC Sports, NHL). ", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:13.233000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-07 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Carolina Hurricanes", "Colorado Avalanche", "Tampa Bay Lightning", "Toronto Maple Leafs", "Vegas Golden Knights", "Another team or no team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will there not be a signed executive order or federal legislation that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?", "id": "G1984", "background": "Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (Reuters, ACLU, National Law Review). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:19.719000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?", "id": "G1984", "background": "Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (Reuters, ACLU, National Law Review). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:19.719000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the EU not establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1985", "background": "In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to \"consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities,\" among other things (European Parliament, see #56, ZD Net). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:26.446000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:09+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1985", "background": "In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to \"consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities,\" among other things (European Parliament, see #56, ZD Net). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:26.446000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:09+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "id": "G1986", "background": "In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d\" table in the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (OPEC). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) (OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).", "publish_time": "2021-04-09 18:02:37.232000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:38+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than 8,000 tb/d", "Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive", "More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d", "Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive", "More than 9,500 tb/d" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?", "id": "G1987", "background": "With Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down, her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Germany in general face an uncertain political future (Euronews, Deutsche Welle). The election is scheduled to take place on 26 September 2021 (Bundeswahlleiter.de, Politico.eu). Members of other political parties joining a government would be immaterial. If, by 31 December 2021, no election is held or new elections are called with only a caretaker government put in place, the question will close as \"No government will be formed before 31 December 2021.\" \"The Green Party\" means the Alliance '90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen).", "publish_time": "2021-04-16 17:16:38.785000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-26 07:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "The CDU but not the Green Party", "The Green Party but not the CDU", "Both the CDU and the Green Party", "Neither the CDU nor the Green Party", "No government will be formed before 31 December 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?", "id": "G1988", "background": "New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes (ABC News, CBS News, City & State New York). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close \"Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor.\"", "publish_time": "2021-04-16 17:16:42.809000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-10 16:00:28+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022", "Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor", "Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial", "None of these will occur before 1 April 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML not obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G1989", "background": "ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (ASML.com). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (Medium, ASML.com, Laser Focus World). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (Asia Times, B1ts & Ch1ps). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-16 17:16:46.851000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G1989", "background": "ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (ASML.com). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (Medium, ASML.com, Laser Focus World). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (Asia Times, B1ts & Ch1ps). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-16 17:16:46.851000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the EU not amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1990", "background": "As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the \"Next Generation EU\" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (Economist, European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).", "publish_time": "2021-04-23 16:53:48.675000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 18:00:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G1990", "background": "As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the \"Next Generation EU\" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (Economist, European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).", "publish_time": "2021-04-23 16:53:48.675000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 18:00:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "id": "G1991", "background": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (BBC, Reuters, EUR-Lex, European Commission). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:44:48.844000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "0", "1", "2", "3 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?", "id": "G1992", "background": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region (NBC News, Unian, US News). ", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:44:57.142000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine", "Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve not announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "id": "G1993", "background": "The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month\" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:44:58.893000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-03 18:00:12+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "id": "G1993", "background": "The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month\" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:44:58.893000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-03 18:00:12+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?", "id": "G1994", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 21-22 September 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:45:02.243000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-22 07:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism not become law before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1995", "background": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:45:05.037000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Environment", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G1995", "background": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 16:45:05.037000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Environment", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "id": "G1996", "background": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 5 June 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 31 May 2021 through 6 June 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 17:26:24.040000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-05 07:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 10,000", "Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive", "More than 20,000 but fewer than 30,000", "Between 30,000 and 40,000, inclusive", "More than 40,000 but fewer than 50,000", "Between 50,000 and 60,000, inclusive", "More than 60,000 but fewer than 70,000", "Between 70,000 and 80,000, inclusive", "More than 80,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "id": "G1997", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 17:27:02.666000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-05 07:01:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 1,500", "Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive", "More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500", "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive", "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500", "Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive", "More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500", "Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive", "More than 12,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "id": "G1998", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 17:27:18.459000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-05 07:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 150,000", "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive", "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000", "Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive", "More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000", "Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive", "More than 850,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "id": "G1999", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 17:27:37.616000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 07:01:24+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 170,000,000", "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive", "More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000", "Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive", "More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000", "Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive", "More than 220,000,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "id": "G2000", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 17:28:59.108000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 07:01:45+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 120,000,000", "Between 120,000,000 and 130,000,000, inclusive", "More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000", "Between 140,000,000 and 150,000,000, inclusive", "More than 150,000,000 but fewer than 160,000,000", "Between 160,000,000 and 170,000,000, inclusive", "More than 170,000,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "id": "G2001", "background": "The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (Edison Research). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ \"listened to a podcast in the last month\" (The Infinite Dial 2021, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:12:23.937000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Less than 42%", "Between 42% and 44%, inclusive", "More than 44% but less than 48%", "48% or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will US print book sales in 2021 not exceed those in 2020?", "id": "G2002", "background": "In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:12:42.562000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:04+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?", "id": "G2002", "background": "In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:12:42.562000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:04+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?", "id": "G2003", "background": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues (FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:12:56.396000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "2 or fewer", "3", "4", "5", "6 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India?", "id": "G2004", "background": "India has faced a monumental surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths since April 2021 (BBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). Data will be accessed as necessary no later than 2 October 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:13:11.915000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 07:01:24+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 July 2021", "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021", "Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021", "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021", "Not before 1 October 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association not be ratified before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2005", "background": "Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA (ESPN, CBS Sports). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 (Bleacher Nation, MLBPA).", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:13:20.825000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2005", "background": "Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA (ESPN, CBS Sports). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 (Bleacher Nation, MLBPA).", "publish_time": "2021-05-07 16:13:20.825000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "id": "G2006", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:44:54.161000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-13 07:01:18+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 45.0%", "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%", "55.0% or higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer not announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?", "id": "G2007", "background": "Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (CNN, The Hill). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:44:59.906000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?", "id": "G2007", "background": "Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (CNN, The Hill). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:44:59.906000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which will happen next regarding the price of Dogecoin?", "id": "G2008", "background": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported in Coindesk's \"1y\" chart for Dogecoin (Coindesk). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:05.920000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-21 23:59:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Dogecoin will have a value of $1.00 or more", "Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less", "Neither will occur before 1 August 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the US not announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G2009", "background": "The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A \"punitive tariff\" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:12.668000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:45+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?", "id": "G2009", "background": "The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A \"punitive tariff\" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:12.668000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:01:45+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) not officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "id": "G2010", "background": "The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:17.222000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-14 08:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "id": "G2010", "background": "The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:17.222000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-14 08:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook not allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?", "id": "G2011", "background": "On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (Oversight Board, NPR, Fox Business). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:21.624000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-08 08:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Society" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?", "id": "G2011", "background": "On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (Oversight Board, NPR, Fox Business). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 16:45:21.624000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-08 08:01:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Society" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will commence in July 2021?", "id": "G2012", "background": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Tokyo2020.org). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (NPR, Business Insider).", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 19:35:35.275000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will not commence in July 2021?", "id": "G2012", "background": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Tokyo2020.org). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (NPR, Business Insider).", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 19:35:35.275000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-15 07:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which cricket team will win the 2021 ICC World Test Championship Final?", "id": "G2013", "background": "The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) World Test Championship Final is scheduled for 18-22 June 2021 in Southampton, England (ICC). There is currently no systemic way of dealing with a draw besides awarding joint championship (CricTracker).", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 16:15:36.543000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-18 07:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "India", "New Zealand", "The match will end in a draw or tie", "The 2021 Final will either be canceled or the first day will be postponed until after 18 July 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial loss (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?", "id": "G2014", "background": "AgResearch is \"responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector,\" and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (AgResearch). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (AgResearch - Annual Reports). For FY 2019/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report, see \"Surplus/(deficit) before tax\" on page 103).", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:49.821000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?", "id": "G2014", "background": "AgResearch is \"responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector,\" and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (AgResearch). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (AgResearch - Annual Reports). For FY 2019/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report, see \"Surplus/(deficit) before tax\" on page 103).", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:49.821000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be lower than it was as of 18 May 2021?", "id": "G2015", "background": "Milk prices have been on the rise in 2021 (Rural News Group). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Global Dairy Trade, which posts new price data every first and third Tuesday of the month (Global Dairy Trade). As of 18 May 2021, the average price of whole milk powder was $4,123.", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:52.490000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-14 12:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be higher than it was as of 18 May 2021?", "id": "G2015", "background": "Milk prices have been on the rise in 2021 (Rural News Group). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Global Dairy Trade, which posts new price data every first and third Tuesday of the month (Global Dairy Trade). As of 18 May 2021, the average price of whole milk powder was $4,123.", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:52.490000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-14 12:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 22 July 2021, will neither Hamas nor the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?", "id": "G2016", "background": "After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, \"Israeli government\" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:54.768000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-22 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?", "id": "G2016", "background": "After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, \"Israeli government\" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:54.768000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-22 07:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "id": "G2017", "background": "The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (CNBC, Fool, Housing Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.", "publish_time": "2021-05-21 16:56:58.368000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1.4 million", "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", "More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million", "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "More than 2.0 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers not sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?", "id": "G2018", "background": "Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox News). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:12.872000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-09 07:01:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?", "id": "G2018", "background": "Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox News). ", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:12.872000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-09 07:01:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "id": "G2019", "background": "In spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; three hundred million (300,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 30 crore (30,00,00,000).", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:15.597000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-10 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 August 2021", "Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021", "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021", "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 October 2021", "Not before 1 November 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate not reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?", "id": "G2020", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (Pew Research, AP, Fox Business). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020).", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:18.187000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Economic Indicators", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?", "id": "G2020", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (Pew Research, AP, Fox Business). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020).", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:18.187000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "Economic Indicators", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Who win the next Iranian presidential election?", "id": "G2021", "background": "The 2021 Iranian presidential election is currently scheduled for 18 June 2021 (BBC, RFE/RL, Al Jazeera). If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff between the two candidates receiving the most votes would take place the following Friday (Iran Constitution).", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:21.937000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-18 22:00:03+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi", "Abdolnasser Hemmati", "Saeed Jalili", "Mohsen Mehralizadeh", "Ebrahim Raisi", "Mohsen Rezai", "Alireza Zakani", "None of these or there will be no election before 26 June 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?", "id": "G2022", "background": "The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the \"1y\" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2021 (PT) by the price dated 27 May 2021 (PT), which were: Bitcoin (CoinDesk): $38,717.77 Cardano (Ada) (CoinDesk): $1.66 Ethereum (CoinDesk): $2,774.54 XRP (Ripple) (CoinDesk): $0.979175 In the event of an apparent tie, \"Closing Price (USD)\" data will be exported from the \"1y\" chart for resolution. If there is still a tie, the question will close on the cryptocurrency with the larger market cap. ", "publish_time": "2021-05-28 16:53:26.755000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-29 08:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Bitcoin", "Cardano (Ada)", "Ethereum", "XRP (Ripple)" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "id": "G2023", "background": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 3 July 2021 (HealthData.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 28 June 2021 through 4 July 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 17:49:28.535000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-03 07:01:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 5,000", "Between 5,000 and 10,000, inclusive", "More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000", "Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive", "More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000", "Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive", "More than 30,000 but fewer than 35,000", "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive", "More than 40,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "id": "G2024", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July 2021, inclusive (JSU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 17:49:31.587000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-03 07:01:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 1,000", "Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive", "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000", "Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive", "More than 4,000 but fewer than 5,000", "Between 5,000 and 6,000 inclusive", "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,000", "Between 7,000 and 8,000 inclusive", "More than 8,000 but fewer than 9,000", "9,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "id": "G2025", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 17:49:34.507000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-03 07:01:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 20,000", "Between 20,000 and 60,000, inclusive", "More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000", "Between 100,000 and 140,000, inclusive", "More than 140,000 but fewer than 180,000", "Between 180,000 and 220,000, inclusive", "More than 220,000 but fewer than 260,000", "Between 260,000 and 300,000, inclusive", "More than 300,000 but fewer than 340,000", "Between 340,000 and 380,000, inclusive", "More than 380,000 but fewer than 420,000", "420,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?", "id": "G2026", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 17:49:37.915000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 07:01:58+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 175,000,000", "Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive", "More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000", "Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive", "More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000", "Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive", "More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000", "235,000,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?", "id": "G2027", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 17:49:41.587000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 07:01:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 145,000,000", "Between 145,000,000 and 155,000,000, inclusive", "More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000", "Between 165,000,000 and 175,000,000, inclusive", "More than 175,000,000 but fewer than 185,000,000", "Between 185,000,000 and 195,000,000, inclusive", "More than 195,000,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "id": "G2028", "background": "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be \"above-normal\" (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).", "publish_time": "2021-06-04 15:32:21.573000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "2 or fewer", "3", "4", "5", "6 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2020?", "id": "G2029", "background": "The UEFA European Championship has been held every four years since 1960, but was postponed in 2020 due to COVID-19 (UEFA, Sky Sports). The tournament is currently scheduled for 11 June 2021 to 11 July 2021 (UEFA).", "publish_time": "2021-06-04 15:32:57.437000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-11 07:01:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Belgium", "England", "France", "Germany", "Portugal", "Spain", "Another country", "The Euro 2020 will be postponed to after July 2021 or canceled" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?", "id": "G2030", "background": "No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise (IMDb). The outcome will be determined with \"Domestic Weekend\" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo (Box Office Mojo). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled: Skyfall (2012): $88,364,714 Spectre (2015): $70,403,148", "publish_time": "2021-06-04 15:33:05.941000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-08 07:01:52+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)", "No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)", "No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "id": "G2031", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government (Coronavirus.data.gov.uk). See \"Vaccination uptake, by report date,\" and select \"UK Total.\" If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary (BBC). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.", "publish_time": "2021-06-04 15:31:56.611000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-28 18:00:59+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 July 2021", "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021", "Between 1 August and 31 August 2021", "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021", "Not before 1 October 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "id": "G2032", "background": "A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (CNBC, RetailWire). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data, under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" (5) select \"U.S. Total,\" and leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:13:57.182000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:57+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "The same or lower for 2021", "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%", "Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive", "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%", "Higher by 7.5% or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil not exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?", "id": "G2033", "background": "US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (EIA, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (EIA STEO June 2021, see Table 4a).", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:14:50.902000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?", "id": "G2033", "background": "US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (EIA, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (EIA STEO June 2021, see Table 4a).", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:14:50.902000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving?", "id": "G2035", "background": "The men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving final is scheduled for 28 July 2021 (Olympics). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:15:17.249000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-28 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "China", "Germany", "Great Britain", "Russia (Russian Olympic Committee)", "Another country", "No gold medal will be awarded for this event" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Great Britain win less gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G2036", "background": "The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (Olympics). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:15:20.829000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-08 07:01:17+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?", "id": "G2036", "background": "The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (Olympics). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:15:20.829000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-08 07:01:17+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "id": "G2037", "background": "The women’s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 (Olympics). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 16:15:26.217000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-06 07:01:32+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Great Britain", "Japan", "The Netherlands", "United States", "Another country", "No gold medal will be awarded for this event" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community not publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?", "id": "G2038", "background": "Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience (BBC, Science Magazine, Nature, BBC). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had “coalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (Whitehouse.gov, NY Times, BBC). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 21:55:18.027000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?", "id": "G2038", "background": "Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience (BBC, Science Magazine, Nature, BBC). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had “coalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (Whitehouse.gov, NY Times, BBC). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 21:55:18.027000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?", "id": "G2041", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 2-3 November 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-06-18 17:07:23.536000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-03 07:01:27+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "id": "G2042", "background": "Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (Reuters, NY Times, BBC). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.", "publish_time": "2021-06-17 21:54:32.268000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-18 07:01:38+00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "No", "Yes, between 1 and 10", "Yes, between 11 and 50", "Yes, between 51 and 150", "Yes, more than 150" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be lower on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?", "id": "G2043", "background": "Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (Business Today). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39 per barrel.", "publish_time": "2021-06-17 21:53:35.368000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-16 07:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?", "id": "G2043", "background": "Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (Business Today). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39 per barrel.", "publish_time": "2021-06-17 21:53:35.368000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-16 07:01:48+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "id": "G2044", "background": "Rising global food prices are a growing concern (Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.", "publish_time": "2021-06-17 21:54:49.856000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Indicators", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "Lower than $220.00/MT", "Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive", "Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT", "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive", "Higher than $340.00/MT" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be lower than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?", "id": "G2045", "background": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-18 17:07:25.470000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 08:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?", "id": "G2045", "background": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). ", "publish_time": "2021-06-18 17:07:25.470000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 08:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?", "id": "G2046", "background": "Delta variant (B.1.617.2, formerly known as the India variant) case growth in the United States raises concerns about a possible worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the fall (CBS News, CNN). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in 2-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 May 2021, the Delta variant's percent share of COVID lineage in the US was 2.7% as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count.", "publish_time": "2021-06-18 17:07:27.537000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-18 18:00:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier", "The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021", "The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021", "The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021", "Not before 26 September 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "id": "G2047", "background": "Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (Guardian, Public Health England, British Medical Journal). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-06-18 17:07:30.575000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-05 14:00:04+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "On or before 14 July 2021", "Between 15 July and 28 July 2021", "Between 29 July and 11 August 2021", "Not before 12 August 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?", "id": "G2052", "background": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 (BLS - PPI). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% (BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021, see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 20:36:36.108000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 07:01:45+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1.0%", "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive", "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%", "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive", "More than 5.5%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index neither reach nor exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2053", "background": "The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-06-25 16:53:30.514000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:49+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2053", "background": "The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-06-25 16:53:30.514000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:49+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?", "id": "G2054", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for \"second doses administered\" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.", "publish_time": "2021-06-25 16:53:46.318000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-20 10:59:46+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?", "id": "G2054", "background": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for \"second doses administered\" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.", "publish_time": "2021-06-25 16:53:46.318000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-20 10:59:46+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique not be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?", "id": "G2060", "background": "Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) \"approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado,\" though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, \"forces\" means national military forces or law enforcement.", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 20:51:14.075000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-25 18:00:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?", "id": "G2060", "background": "Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) \"approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado,\" though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, \"forces\" means national military forces or law enforcement.", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 20:51:14.075000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-25 18:00:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the median price of a house in New Zealand not exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?", "id": "G2061", "background": "Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (Guardian, Newshub). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (REINZ). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:35.573000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Economic Indicators", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?", "id": "G2061", "background": "Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (Guardian, Newshub). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (REINZ). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:35.573000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Economic Indicators", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi not list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?", "id": "G2062", "background": "The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding (Stuff). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency (Waka Kotahi). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the \"Table view\" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on \"qualifying\" stations, see \"Minimum requirements for the nationwide network\" (Waka Kotahi).", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:38.496000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?", "id": "G2062", "background": "The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding (Stuff). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency (Waka Kotahi). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the \"Table view\" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on \"qualifying\" stations, see \"Minimum requirements for the nationwide network\" (Waka Kotahi).", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:38.496000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "id": "G2063", "background": "New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (NY Times, AP, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (Eviction Lab). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with \"New York\" under the \"Site\" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the \"filings_2020\" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:41.032000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:34+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Health", "Economic Policy", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 60,000", "Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive", "More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000", "Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive", "More than 240,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 not become law?", "id": "G2064", "background": "On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (CDC, NPR). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes \"clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary\" for another extension (US Supreme Court, The Hill). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:44.575000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law?", "id": "G2064", "background": "On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (CDC, NPR). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes \"clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary\" for another extension (US Supreme Court, The Hill). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:44.575000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 07:01:30+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?", "id": "G2065", "background": "Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, \"space\" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.", "publish_time": "2021-07-02 16:20:47.526000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-11 15:39:09+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Jeff Bezos", "Richard Branson", "Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) not recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?", "id": "G2066", "background": "As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan (Politico.eu, European Parliament). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council (EC, European Parliament - Question to Commission, European Parliament - Commission Response). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 (EC, EC).", "publish_time": "2021-07-09 16:25:19.771000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?", "id": "G2066", "background": "As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan (Politico.eu, European Parliament). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council (EC, European Parliament - Question to Commission, European Parliament - Commission Response). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 (EC, EC).", "publish_time": "2021-07-09 16:25:19.771000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap?", "id": "G2067", "background": "The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 9 December 2021 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 10 December 2021 (CoinMarketCap). ", "publish_time": "2021-07-09 16:25:22.509000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-09 08:01:41+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Less than $1.0 trillion", "Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive", "More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion", "Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive", "More than $2.5 trillion" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "id": "G2068", "background": "Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.", "publish_time": "2021-07-09 16:25:25.739000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 250.00000", "Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive", "Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000", "Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive", "Higher than 280.00000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "id": "G2069", "background": "Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (F1 Chronicle). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 12 December 2021 in Abu Dhabi (Formula 1).", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:13.701000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-12 08:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Lewis Hamilton", "Sergio Perez", "Max Verstappen", "Another driver" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Haiti not hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2070", "background": "Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (Reuters). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (CNN, NY Times). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (UN). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:21.662000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2070", "background": "Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (Reuters). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (CNN, NY Times). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (UN). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:21.662000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:56+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US avoid fully evacuating and retain control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, until 1 December 2021?", "id": "G2071", "background": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:31.714000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?", "id": "G2071", "background": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:31.714000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?", "id": "G2072", "background": "There is ongoing disagreement within OPEC regarding crude oil production (Business Times, CNBC, World Oil). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d\" table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The July 2021 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 26,034 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in June 2021 (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 49 in the document). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and closed when the October 2021 data are released, scheduled for November 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:44.044000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 25,500 tb/d", "Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive", "More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d", "28,500 tb/d or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Ashraf Ghani neither flee Afghanistan nor cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2073", "background": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:49.843000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 13:00:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2073", "background": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:28:49.843000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 13:00:20+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?", "id": "G2074", "background": "Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response (The Week, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:29:04.115000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-12 08:01:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 22 million", "Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive", "More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million", "Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive", "More than 28 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "id": "G2075", "background": "As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 16:29:21.348000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-19 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 September 2021", "Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021", "Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021", "Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021", "Not before 12 November 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?", "id": "G2076", "background": "Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the \"CPI ANNUAL RATE\" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).", "publish_time": "2021-07-21 14:10:20.413000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1.7%", "Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive", "More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%", "Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive", "More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%", "4.1% or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?", "id": "G2077", "background": "Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 (NPR, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under \"Cases by date reported\" (Coronavirus.data.co.uk). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-07-21 14:10:22.544000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-18 08:01:21+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Before 11 September 2021", "Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021", "Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021", "Not before 18 December 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "id": "G2078", "background": "On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (Rio Times, Reuters, Bloomberg). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (AS/COA).", "publish_time": "2021-07-21 14:10:24.430000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-19 20:00:52+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Gabriel Boric", "Sebastián Sichel", "Another candidate", "There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the US Congress agree to a new budget resolution?", "id": "G2080", "background": "Senate Democrats announced a new proposed budget deal designed to sidestep a filibuster (CNBC, Politico, Senate Glossary, House Budget Committee). The last budget resolution was agreed to by the House and Senate on 5 February 2021 (Congress.gov - S.Con.Res.5, NPR). Legislation asserting the force and effect of a budget resolution would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:13.677000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 23:00:54+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 9 August 2021", "Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021", "Not before 1 October 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "id": "G2081", "background": "While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (USA Today, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:16.220000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-30 14:00:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 October 2021", "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021", "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", "Not before 1 April 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?", "id": "G2082", "background": "Soon after its IPO in the US, DiDi Global Inc. faced a barrage of regulatory scrutiny from Chinese authorities (CNBC, Motley Fool). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:19.851000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than $25 billion", "Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive", "More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion", "Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive", "More than $70 billion", "DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?", "id": "G2083", "background": "On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that \"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time\" (hhs.gov). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:22.945000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 September 2021", "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "Not before 1 January 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2084", "background": "Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:26.005000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2084", "background": "Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 16:10:26.005000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:36+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "id": "G2085", "background": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). ", "publish_time": "2021-07-27 13:22:42.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 08:01:38+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Less than $30.00", "Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive", "More than $45.00 but less than $60.00", "Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive", "More than $75.00 but less than $90.00", "More than $90.00" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Abiy Ahmed not cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2087", "background": "After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"extraconstitutional\" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question \"Yes.\" For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-07-30 16:47:37.656000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:41+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2087", "background": "After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"extraconstitutional\" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question \"Yes.\" For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-07-30 16:47:37.656000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:41+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly not recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?", "id": "G2088", "background": "The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).", "publish_time": "2021-07-30 16:47:46.830000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 15:00:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?", "id": "G2088", "background": "The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).", "publish_time": "2021-07-30 16:47:46.830000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 15:00:08+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "id": "G2089", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-07-30 16:48:16.756000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 08:01:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline not begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", "id": "G2091", "background": "The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Nord-stream2.com). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:18.636000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", "id": "G2091", "background": "The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Nord-stream2.com). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:18.636000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:40+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Foreign Policy", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021?", "id": "G2092", "background": "While US motor vehicle demand has recovered from the worst of the pandemic days, ongoing shortages in microchips are hampering auto production (Detroit Free Press, Ford Authority). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Ford, expected in 2022 (Ford, see \"U.S. Sales Reports\"). For 2020, Ford reported production at 2,034,807 among plants in Canada, Mexico, and the US (Ford - Q4 2020 Sales Release, see page 4, \"Total Production\" for \"Full Year\").", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:20.523000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 1.75 million", "Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive", "More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million", "Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive", "More than 2.50 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?", "id": "G2094", "background": "COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled \"COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California\" with the \"Hospitalized\" option selected (COVID19.ca.gov). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021. ", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:30.428000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-18 23:00:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Before 15 September 2021", "Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021", "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", "Not before 1 February 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "id": "G2095", "background": "The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (New Atlas, Newsweek). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:33.666000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-19 15:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier", "A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021", "A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022", "A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022", "Not before 13 March 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments not be imposed on New York City?", "id": "G2096", "background": "With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (NYC.gov, NY Post, CNN, NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:36.761000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?", "id": "G2096", "background": "With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (NYC.gov, NY Post, CNN, NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-06 15:08:36.761000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:01:29+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 13 February 2022, will there not be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?", "id": "G2097", "background": "Regional tensions involving Iran continue (Reuters, Washington Post, BBC). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:07.993000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-13 08:01:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?", "id": "G2097", "background": "Regional tensions involving Iran continue (Reuters, Washington Post, BBC). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:07.993000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-13 08:01:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021?", "id": "G2098", "background": "The 2021 World Series is scheduled for 26 October 2021 to 3 November 2021 (Sportsnaut). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:10.568000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Chicago White Sox", "Houston Astros", "Los Angeles Dodgers", "Milwaukee Brewers", "Oakland Athletics", "San Diego Padres", "San Francisco Giants", "Tampa Bay Rays", "Another team", "No team will win the 2021 World Series" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court allow any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?", "id": "G2099", "background": "On 3 August 2021, the CDC issued a new, revised 60-day eviction moratorium order to replace the order that expired at the end of July 2021 (NPR, CDC, The Hill). For the purposes of this question, \"block\" means an action by the Supreme Court that would prevent the order from having legal effect (e.g., denying a relevant appeal, a judgment declaring the moratorium illegal). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:13.394000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-26 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?", "id": "G2099", "background": "On 3 August 2021, the CDC issued a new, revised 60-day eviction moratorium order to replace the order that expired at the end of July 2021 (NPR, CDC, The Hill). For the purposes of this question, \"block\" means an action by the Supreme Court that would prevent the order from having legal effect (e.g., denying a relevant appeal, a judgment declaring the moratorium illegal). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:13.394000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-26 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Until 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied continue to be the president of Tunisia?", "id": "G2100", "background": "The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (Reuters, Middle East Eye, Guardian, Al Jazeera). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:17.498000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:17+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?", "id": "G2100", "background": "The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (Reuters, Middle East Eye, Guardian, Al Jazeera). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 16:43:17.498000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:17+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Liberal Party lose a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?", "id": "G2101", "background": "Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (Edmonton Journal, BBC). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:29.755000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-20 07:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?", "id": "G2101", "background": "Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (Edmonton Journal, BBC). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:29.755000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-20 07:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Rishi Sunak continue to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2102", "background": "There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (Sky News, Daily Mail, Gov. uk - Rishi Sunak, Evening Standard). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:47.196000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2102", "background": "There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (Sky News, Daily Mail, Gov. uk - Rishi Sunak, Evening Standard). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:47.196000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will neither the UK nor the EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?", "id": "G2103", "background": "The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:59.949000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?", "id": "G2103", "background": "The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:26:59.949000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 08:01:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sir Keir Starmer not face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", "id": "G2104", "background": "Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (Sky News, Guardian, Sky News). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (Institute for Government, Labour Party Rule Book 2020, see Chapter 4, Clause II).", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:27:09.350000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-04 07:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", "id": "G2104", "background": "Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (Sky News, Guardian, Sky News). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (Institute for Government, Labour Party Rule Book 2020, see Chapter 4, Clause II).", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:27:09.350000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-04 07:01:35+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors not be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2105", "background": "The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as \"Freedom Day\" (Sky News, Gov.uk). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come (Bustle, GoodtoKnow). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:27:24.938000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2105", "background": "The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as \"Freedom Day\" (Sky News, Gov.uk). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come (Bustle, GoodtoKnow). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.", "publish_time": "2021-08-19 22:27:24.938000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) not announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?", "id": "G2106", "background": "A majority of the \"Paris Rulebook\" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (Sky News, World Resources Institute, Gov.uk, Environmental Defense Fund). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (UKCOP26.org).", "publish_time": "2021-08-26 21:32:05.524000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 19:30:32+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?", "id": "G2106", "background": "A majority of the \"Paris Rulebook\" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (Sky News, World Resources Institute, Gov.uk, Environmental Defense Fund). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (UKCOP26.org).", "publish_time": "2021-08-26 21:32:05.524000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 19:30:32+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden not invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?", "id": "G2108", "background": "Biden has already met Johnson once since becoming president, but has so far only invited Queen Elizabeth II from the UK to the White House (Sky News, Politico). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-26 21:32:11.305000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?", "id": "G2108", "background": "Biden has already met Johnson once since becoming president, but has so far only invited Queen Elizabeth II from the UK to the White House (Sky News, Politico). ", "publish_time": "2021-08-26 21:32:11.305000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"Worked from home and didn't travel to work\" stayed at 15% or higher?", "id": "G2109", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' \"Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)\" dataset (ONS, click the green button under \"Current edition of this dataset\" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working \"Worked from home and didn’t travel to work\" (see \"%\" under \"Working population\" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet \"Previous Publications.\" In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.", "publish_time": "2021-08-27 14:47:05.794000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-21 08:30:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"Worked from home and didn't travel to work\" fell to 15% or lower?", "id": "G2109", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' \"Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)\" dataset (ONS, click the green button under \"Current edition of this dataset\" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working \"Worked from home and didn’t travel to work\" (see \"%\" under \"Working population\" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet \"Previous Publications.\" In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.", "publish_time": "2021-08-27 14:47:05.794000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-21 08:30:13+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?", "id": "G2110", "background": "With the collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021, no one is sure who might represent the country at the UN General Assembly (AP, UN). Representatives of member states must submit credentials to the Secretary-General in order to participate (UNGA Rules of Procedure, Just Security, Christian Science Monitor). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021 (Politico). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any representative(s) as representing Afghanistan. Provisional recognition per Rule 29 of the General Assembly's rules of procedure alone would not count. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).", "publish_time": "2021-08-27 15:56:35.510000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-02 07:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and their credentials will be recognized", "Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?", "id": "G2111", "background": "With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see \"Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases\" chart).", "publish_time": "2021-08-31 18:44:08.852000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-20 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher", "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower", "Neither will occur before 12 November 2021" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?", "id": "G2114", "background": "Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).", "publish_time": "2021-09-02 20:43:10.928000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 4.8 million", "Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive", "More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million", "Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive", "More than 6.0 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "id": "G2115", "background": "In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (CNN, Los Angeles Times, Time). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.", "publish_time": "2021-09-03 14:06:03.941000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:19+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 800,000", "Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive", "More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000", "1,000,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "id": "G2116", "background": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (US Chamber of Commerce, Yahoo, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). For May 2021, the number of job openings for \"Trade, transportation, and utilities\" was 1,687 (in thousands) (JOLTS - June 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Trade, transportation, and utilities.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-03 14:13:16.677000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:01:51+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 1.4 million", "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", "More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million", "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million", "2.2 million or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "id": "G2117", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (91-DIVOC, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast. ", "publish_time": "2021-09-08 15:17:09.357000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-19 07:01:39+00:00", "tags": [ "Health" ], "choices": [ "Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?", "id": "G2118", "background": "The FIFA Arab Cup is scheduled for 30 November 2021 to 18 December 2021 (Global Sports Archive, IloveQatar.net, FIFA). If the Arab Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2021, the question would be voided.", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:00:54.346000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 11:00:24+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Group Stage", "Quarterfinals", "Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)", "Finals (1st or 2nd Place)" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court overturn the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?", "id": "G2119", "background": "In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (ABC News). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (Casetext, CNN, American Bar Association). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (Oyez, BBC). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:00:59.542000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-04 15:15:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?", "id": "G2119", "background": "In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (ABC News). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (Casetext, CNN, American Bar Association). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (Oyez, BBC). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:00:59.542000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-04 15:15:26+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "id": "G2120", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:01:01.961000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 07:01:24+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 40.0%", "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive", "Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%", "Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive", "Higher than 55.0%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?", "id": "G2121", "background": "By midyear 2021, former President Trump's political groups had over $102 million in cash on hand (Politico, ABC News, donaldjtrump.com). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Election Commission for the second half of 2021, expected in early 2022. For the purposes of this question, the three relevant Trump-affiliated PACs are: Save America (FEC.gov - Save America, Mid-year Report 2021) Make America Great Again Action Inc (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again Action Inc, Mid-year Report 2021) Make America Great Again PAC (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again PAC, Mid-year Report 2021)", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:01:07.157000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 08:01:01+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "Less than $100 million", "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive", "More than $150 million but less than $200 million", "$200 million or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021?", "id": "G2122", "background": "Louisiana continues to struggle with COVID-19 in the wake of Hurricane Ida (USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as published by the New York Times (NY Times). The 7-day average of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 1 September 2021 was 2,991. The data for the week ending 20 October 2021 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 26 October 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-09-10 15:01:10.965000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-20 07:01:44+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 1,500", "Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive", "More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500", "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive", "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500", "7,500 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "id": "G2123", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-09-17 15:49:38.108000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-26 15:00:53+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 November 2021", "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022", "Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022", "Not before 1 May 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will remain face-to-face only?", "id": "G2130", "background": "In August 2021, KHDA announced that “[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected” (KHDA). An announcement about a temporary change would count.", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:22.426000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only?", "id": "G2130", "background": "In August 2021, KHDA announced that “[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected” (KHDA). An announcement about a temporary change would count.", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:22.426000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 not attract 25 million visits?", "id": "G2131", "background": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (EXPO2020, Yahoo, The National). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:25.275000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?", "id": "G2131", "background": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (EXPO2020, Yahoo, The National). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:25.275000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 not reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", "id": "G2132", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion (Emirates, Emirates - 2021 Annual Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 (Emirates Group). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million (Emirates - 2021 Annual Report, see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:27.960000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", "id": "G2132", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion (Emirates, Emirates - 2021 Annual Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 (Emirates Group). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million (Emirates - 2021 Annual Report, see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:44:27.960000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 26 January 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 December 2021?", "id": "G2135", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 25-26 January 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 14:49:39.903000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-26 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the James Webb telescope not be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2136", "background": "The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace, WebTelescope.org).", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 15:35:54.534000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-25 12:47:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?", "id": "G2136", "background": "The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace, WebTelescope.org).", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 15:35:54.534000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-25 12:47:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be Rivian's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "id": "G2137", "background": "Electric vehicle maker Rivian is reportedly aiming to go public in late October or November of 2021 (CNBC, Muscle Cars and Trucks). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Rivian goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 15:40:59.122000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 21:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "Less than $50 billion", "Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive", "More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion", "Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive", "More than $110 billion", "Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "id": "G2144", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "publish_time": "2021-10-01 15:20:56.535000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "Less than 85.00", "Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive", "More than 95.00 but less than 105.00", "Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive", "More than 115.00" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) not officially announce a change to its weekend?", "id": "G2145", "background": "In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (BBC, Esquire Middle East). There has been speculation that there could be additional changes coming, though the government has denied any plans (Arab News, Gulf Today). Any calendar change, including an official policy for a \"half-day\" on Friday, for example, would count. The date a change would take effect would be immaterial, but a date the change would take effect must be included in the announcement.", "publish_time": "2021-10-01 15:26:49.535000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-07 08:07:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend?", "id": "G2145", "background": "In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (BBC, Esquire Middle East). There has been speculation that there could be additional changes coming, though the government has denied any plans (Arab News, Gulf Today). Any calendar change, including an official policy for a \"half-day\" on Friday, for example, would count. The date a change would take effect would be immaterial, but a date the change would take effect must be included in the announcement.", "publish_time": "2021-10-01 15:26:49.535000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-07 08:07:47+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare not project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?", "id": "G2148", "background": "The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report, see page 6 in the report).", "publish_time": "2021-10-01 15:37:39.314000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-02 14:00:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?", "id": "G2148", "background": "The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report, see page 6 in the report).", "publish_time": "2021-10-01 15:37:39.314000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-02 14:00:25+00:00", "tags": [ "Health", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2021?", "id": "G2149", "background": "The election is scheduled for 2 November 2021 (The Hill). ", "publish_time": "2021-10-07 14:46:23.814000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "US Politics", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "The Democratic Party candidate", "The Republican Party candidate", "Someone else" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "id": "G2150", "background": "On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 (CNBC). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).", "publish_time": "2021-10-07 14:54:23.213000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 33,000.00", "Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive", "Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00", "Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive", "Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00", "37,000.00 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?", "id": "G2152", "background": "Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents (NPR). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).", "publish_time": "2021-10-07 15:11:13.429000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "Less than $600 billion", "Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive", "More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion", "Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive", "More than $1.35 trillion" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "id": "G2154", "background": "As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (NASDAQ, Hellenic Shipping News, Investopedia, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics).", "publish_time": "2021-10-08 14:33:17.363000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 2,500.00", "Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive", "Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00", "Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive", "Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00", "Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive", "Higher than 10,000.00" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?", "id": "G2155", "background": "The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases (Ontario.ca, CBC, CTV News). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-10-08 14:45:23.488000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-12 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Before 19 November 2021", "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022", "Not before 12 February 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?", "id": "G2158", "background": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later (Economist, France24). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 (Politico.eu, Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls).", "publish_time": "2021-10-15 15:08:47.977000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-24 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "National Rally (Rassemblement National)", "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)", "The Republicans (Les Républicains)", "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)", "None of the above" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will total cases of COVID-19 in Canada reach 2 million or more, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)?", "id": "G2163", "background": "While COVID-19 cases in Canada have begun to fall again, concerns remain for a resurgence with the onset of winter (CBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" The question will close on available data no later than 26 April 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-10-20 14:05:34.218000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-27 15:00:31+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 24 December 2021", "Between 24 December and 22 January 2022", "Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022", "Between 22 February and 23 March 2022", "Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022", "Not before 23 April 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, not become law?", "id": "G2165", "background": "H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is one of the core components of the Biden administration's legislative agenda (H.R.3684, White House, CNN). An amended H.R.3684 becoming law would count.", "publish_time": "2021-10-22 15:47:06.611000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 19:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, become law?", "id": "G2165", "background": "H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is one of the core components of the Biden administration's legislative agenda (H.R.3684, White House, CNN). An amended H.R.3684 becoming law would count.", "publish_time": "2021-10-22 15:47:06.611000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 19:00:10+00:00", "tags": [ "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?", "id": "G2170", "background": "Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides (Yahoo, Capital.com). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (Bloomberg, London Metal Exchange).", "publish_time": "2021-10-29 13:22:55.931000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "Lower than $2,000", "Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive", "Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600", "Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive", "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200", "$3,200 or higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2023, will all Latin American or Caribbean nations continue to formally recognize Taiwan?", "id": "G2172", "background": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Newsweek). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs).", "publish_time": "2021-10-29 13:23:04.301000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-09 18:00:51+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?", "id": "G2172", "background": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Newsweek). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs).", "publish_time": "2021-10-29 13:23:04.301000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-09 18:00:51+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?", "id": "G2173", "background": "Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 (Economist, Budapest Beacon, CNBC). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them (New Statesman, The Hill). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-10-29 13:23:09.913000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-03 17:00:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)", "A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)", "Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "id": "G2177", "background": "Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US (The Hill). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fueling Station Locator, parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type,\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to both \"Level 2\" and \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"", "publish_time": "2021-10-29 15:32:07.712000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 49,000", "Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive", "More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000", "Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive", "More than 61,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "id": "G2179", "background": "The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 (Sporting News, NBA). ", "publish_time": "2021-11-05 15:49:51.363000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-16 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Atlanta Hawks", "Brooklyn Nets", "Dallas Mavericks", "Denver Nuggets", "Golden State Warriors", "Los Angeles Clippers", "Los Angeles Lakers", "Miami Heat", "Milwaukee Bucks", "Philadelphia 76ers", "Phoenix Suns", "Utah Jazz", "Another team" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "At close of business on 16 March 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 January 2022?", "id": "G2182", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 15-16 March 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-11-05 15:50:01.383000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-16 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will there not be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?", "id": "G2184", "background": "Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-11-05 15:50:10.202000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-23 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?", "id": "G2184", "background": "Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.", "publish_time": "2021-11-05 15:50:10.202000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-23 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "id": "G2192", "background": "On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that \"the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook\" (Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (NY Fed).", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 15:00:38.228000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-26 19:00:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 4 May 2022", "Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022", "Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022", "Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022", "Not before 15 December 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?", "id": "G2194", "background": "Mercedes and Red Bull Racing-Honda have, as of the launch of this question, 478.5 and 477.5 points, respectively, in the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Champions standings, with only a four races remaining (Formula1.com, Sky Sports). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2021, the day before the final race in the season, and the outcome determined once official awards are given at the FIA Prize Giving Ceremony.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 22:35:49.350000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-12 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Mercedes", "Red Bull Racing-Honda", "Another result" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which driver will win the Brazilian (São Paulo) Grand Prix?", "id": "G2195", "background": "The 2021 São Paulo Grand Prix is scheduled for 14 November 2021 as one of the closing rounds of the 2021 Formula One World Championship (Sky Sports). ", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 22:35:52.441000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-14 18:25:43+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Max Verstappen", "Lewis Hamilton", "Another result" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "id": "G2196", "background": "The AFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL). ", "publish_time": "2021-11-19 14:39:28.700000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-30 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Baltimore Ravens", "Buffalo Bills", "Indianapolis Colts", "Kansas City Chiefs", "Los Angeles Chargers", "New England Patriots", "Pittsburg Steelers", "Tennessee Titans", "Another team" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which NFL team will win the NFC Championship?", "id": "G2197", "background": "The NFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL). ", "publish_time": "2021-11-19 14:49:19.369000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-30 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Arizona Cardinals", "Carolina Panthers", "Dallas Cowboys", "Green Bay Packers", "Los Angeles Rams", "Minnesota Vikings", "New Orleans Saints", "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "Another team" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will Lebanon next hold parliamentary elections?", "id": "G2198", "background": "Lebanese parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2022, though political and economic circumstances have raised fears that they may be postponed (Economist, Al Jazeera, The National). ", "publish_time": "2021-11-19 15:01:41.823000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 18:00:24.568000+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 April 2022", "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", "Not before 1 June 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?", "id": "G2199", "background": "As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention (Deutsche Welle, Guardian, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.", "publish_time": "2021-11-19 15:59:43.049000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than 70.00%", "Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive", "More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%", "Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive", "More than 85.00%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "id": "G2200", "background": "The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).", "publish_time": "2021-11-19 21:48:00.973000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-12 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Foreign Policy" ], "choices": [ "0", "1 or 2", "3 or 4", "5 or 6", "7 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, fail to become law?", "id": "G2204", "background": "On 19 November 2022, the House of Representatives passed H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, that includes many high priority measures for the Biden administration (Economist, CBS News, CNBC, Congress.gov). An amended H.R.5376 becoming law would count.", "publish_time": "2021-11-26 16:36:22.112000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Technology", "Environment", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, become law?", "id": "G2204", "background": "On 19 November 2022, the House of Representatives passed H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, that includes many high priority measures for the Biden administration (Economist, CBS News, CNBC, Congress.gov). An amended H.R.5376 becoming law would count.", "publish_time": "2021-11-26 16:36:22.112000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Technology", "Environment", "Economic Policy", "US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 26 May 2022?", "id": "G2205", "background": "The Turkish lira hit record lows in November 2021 amid President Erdogan's economic policies and growing influence over the country's central bank (Deutsche Welle, Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).", "publish_time": "2021-11-26 16:36:25.325000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-26 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Lower than 8.00", "Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive", "Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00", "Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive", "Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00", "16.00 or higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", "id": "G2206", "background": "The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (Economist, Atlantic, Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland Act 1998). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., NI Assembly, see Table 5.1).", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 15:50:41.060000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-05 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Democratic Unionist Party", "Sinn Féin", "Another party" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", "id": "G2208", "background": "South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 (US News, Korea Herald). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (Bloomberg).", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 15:50:47.806000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-09 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Democratic Party of Korea", "People Power Party", "Another candidate" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines?", "id": "G2210", "background": "Various familiar names are in the race to be the next president of the Philippines, scheduled for 9 May 2022 (Economist, Bloomberg, NPR). ", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 15:50:56.141000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-09 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Christopher \"Bong\" Go", "Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr.", "Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno", "Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao", "Maria \"Leni\" Robredo", "Another candidate" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "id": "G2211", "background": "The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (Guardian, BBC, UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 15:50:59.171000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-23 23:00:18+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 30 December 2021", "Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022", "Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022", "Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022", "Not before 24 March 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?", "id": "G2212", "background": "After South Africa announced the discovery of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant named Omicron by WHO, President Biden imposed travel restrictions on various southern Africa countries, including South Africa (Whitehouse.gov - Proclamation, BBC, WHO). Listed exceptions, changes to listed exceptions, and/or a change to the duration of the 14-day period would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 15:51:02.988000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Health", "Foreign Policy", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 January 2022", "Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022", "Not before 1 April 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will Canada not announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?", "id": "G2215", "background": "The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (ABC News, Forbes, CTV News). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (Olympics.com, Voice of America). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.", "publish_time": "2021-12-07 01:09:44.847000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 17:40:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Sports", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?", "id": "G2215", "background": "The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (ABC News, Forbes, CTV News). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (Olympics.com, Voice of America). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.", "publish_time": "2021-12-07 01:09:44.847000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 17:40:06+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Sports", "Foreign Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which team will win the 2022 College Football Playoff national championship?", "id": "G2217", "background": "The two semifinal games are scheduled for 31 December 2021, and the national championship game is scheduled for 10 January 2022 in Indianapolis (NCAA). ", "publish_time": "2021-12-10 16:34:44.613000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-10 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "Alabama Crimson Tide", "Cincinnati Bearcats", "Georgia Bulldogs", "Michigan Wolverines" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many seats in the Assembly of the Republic will the Socialist Party win in the next Portuguese parliamentary election?", "id": "G2218", "background": "The next Portuguese parliamentary election is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (EU Reporter, Politico.eu, Politico.eu - Poll of Polls). The Socialist Party won 108 seats in the 2019 Portuguese parliamentary election (Assembly of the Republic).", "publish_time": "2021-12-10 16:34:59.104000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-30 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 96", "Between 96 and 105", "Between 106 and 115", "More than 115" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury stay below 2.25% before 1 July 2022?", "id": "G2220", "background": "Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.", "publish_time": "2021-12-10 16:35:18.684000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-21 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?", "id": "G2220", "background": "Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.", "publish_time": "2021-12-10 16:35:18.684000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-21 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries not reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?", "id": "G2228", "background": "Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%. ", "publish_time": "2021-12-17 15:10:08.087000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-16 22:00:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?", "id": "G2228", "background": "Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%. ", "publish_time": "2021-12-17 15:10:08.087000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-16 22:00:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?", "id": "G2229", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-17 15:10:11.198000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-04 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "id": "G2230", "background": "The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a \"tidal wave\" of COVID-19 cases (CNN, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (UK Health Security Agency, see \"Patients admitted to hospital\" set to \"Daily\"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "publish_time": "2021-12-23 16:43:25.446000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than 1,500", "Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive", "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500", "Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive", "More than 3,000 but less than 3,500", "Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive", "More than 4,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "id": "G2231", "background": "The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter (USA Today, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC, parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "publish_time": "2021-12-23 16:43:27.841000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Fewer than 900,000", "Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive", "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000", "Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive", "More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000", "Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive", "More than 1,275,000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) not officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "id": "G2234", "background": "Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (Economist, US News & World Report, CNN). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).", "publish_time": "2021-12-30 16:28:08.486000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-16 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", "id": "G2234", "background": "Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (Economist, US News & World Report, CNN). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).", "publish_time": "2021-12-30 16:28:08.486000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-16 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology", "Health", "US Politics", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?", "id": "G2235", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "publish_time": "2021-12-30 16:35:47.910000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-03 15:00:55+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Before 1 February 2022", "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", "Not before 1 August 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?", "id": "G2236", "background": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others (CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2021-12-30 16:44:44.909000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-23 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", "id": "G2242", "background": "Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 16:16:53.744000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:10:37+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", "Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea not launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "id": "G2243", "background": "While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 16:35:23.128000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-23 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "id": "G2243", "background": "While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 16:35:23.128000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-23 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day not occur on 31 March 2022?", "id": "G2252", "background": "Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue (ESPN, CBS Sports, MLBPA). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 (MLB). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.", "publish_time": "2022-01-28 15:04:43.811000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?", "id": "G2252", "background": "Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue (ESPN, CBS Sports, MLBPA). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 (MLB). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.", "publish_time": "2022-01-28 15:04:43.811000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Sports", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", "id": "G2254", "background": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-01-28 15:49:31.889000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-15 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy" ], "choices": [ "Lower", "Same", "Higher" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?", "id": "G2257", "background": "Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, former US Senator David Perdue, and others are battling for the Republican nomination for governor (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win). The primary election is scheduled for 24 May 2022, with a primary runoff set for 21 June 2022, if needed (Georgia Secretary of State).", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 14:35:52.105000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-24 23:00:23+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics", "Elections and Referenda" ], "choices": [ "Brian Kemp", "David Perdue", "Someone else" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 4 February 2022 and 4 June 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for daily new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand?", "id": "G2258", "background": "While New Zealand has fared relatively well in the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of the Omicron variant has brought a new wave (Guardian, New Zealand Herald, covid19.govt.nz). The outcome will be determined using 7-day rolling average data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data, parameters set in link ('New Zealand' selected on the left side, Metric set to 'Confirmed cases,' Interval set to '7-day rolling average,' and the 'Relative to Population' box unchecked)). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 March 2022 would not be evaluated until 8 March 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 14:52:12.223000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-04 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology", "Society", "Health" ], "choices": [ "Less than 2,000", "Between 2,000 and 5,000, inclusive", "More than 5,000 but less that 10,000", "Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive", "More than 20,000 but less than 40,000", "40,000 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the Conservative Party hold a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in 2022?", "id": "G2260", "background": "Prime Minister Johnson is facing pushback from within his own Conservative Party in the wake of various scandals, including challenges to his leadership of the party (Sky News, France 24). If 15% of the Conservative Party members in parliament submit letters of no confidence to the \"1922 Committee,\" a party leadership vote would be triggered (Sky News).", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 15:24:05.337000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-06 20:00:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Yes, and it will pass", "Yes, but it will not pass", "No" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "id": "G2262", "background": "With Justice Breyer's retirement announcement, President Biden has begun a search to find his replacement (Politico, CBS News, Daily Mail, US Supreme Court). ", "publish_time": "2022-02-11 14:54:18.601000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 16:00:05+00:00", "tags": [ "Leader Entry/Exit", "US Politics" ], "choices": [ "J. Michelle Childs", "Anita Earls", "Ketanji Brown Jackson", "Candace Jackson-Akiwumi", "Leondra Kruger", "Melissa Murray", "Wilhelmina Wright", "Someone else", "Biden will not announce a choice before 1 July 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the price of steel plate in the US be lower as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?", "id": "G2266", "background": "Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (NPR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (SteelBenchmarker, see USA FOB mill, \"Dollars per Metric Tonne,\" page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for \"Plate\" was 2,015.", "publish_time": "2022-02-11 15:51:57.574000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-28 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?", "id": "G2266", "background": "Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (NPR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (SteelBenchmarker, see USA FOB mill, \"Dollars per Metric Tonne,\" page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for \"Plate\" was 2,015.", "publish_time": "2022-02-11 15:51:57.574000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-28 08:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?", "id": "G2269", "background": "On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).", "publish_time": "2022-02-18 17:55:16.617000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-21 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?", "id": "G2269", "background": "On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).", "publish_time": "2022-02-18 17:55:16.617000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-21 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky stay in Ukraine and continue to be its president before 25 May 2022?", "id": "G2277", "background": "As Russia invades Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, there is speculation as to how far Russia is willing to go (BBC, NPR). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.", "publish_time": "2022-02-24 17:18:17.423000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-25 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 May 2022?", "id": "G2277", "background": "As Russia invades Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, there is speculation as to how far Russia is willing to go (BBC, NPR). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.", "publish_time": "2022-02-24 17:18:17.423000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-25 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Foreign Policy", "Leader Entry/Exit", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "id": "G2285", "background": "Agricultural commodity prices have been rising, and war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, both large wheat producers, may impact production (CNBC, ABC News). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (CNBC). Wheat is priced per 5,000 bushels (CME).", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 15:49:28.300000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-15 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "Less than 700.00", "Between 700.00 and 825.00, inclusive", "More than 825.00 but less than 950.00", "Between 950.00 and 1,075.00, inclusive", "More than 1,075.00 but less than 1,200.00, inclusive", "1,200.00 or more" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia retain access to the SWIFT banking system?", "id": "G2288", "background": "Amid various sanctions being imposed against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, countries are considering whether to block Russian access to SWIFT (BBC, CBS News, Financial Times). A SWIFT ban on one or more Russian institutions would count. For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index, https://www.swift.com/about-us/legal/compliance-0/swift-and-sanctions.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 17:29:19.566000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-11 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia be restricted or banned from access to the SWIFT banking system?", "id": "G2288", "background": "Amid various sanctions being imposed against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, countries are considering whether to block Russian access to SWIFT (BBC, CBS News, Financial Times). A SWIFT ban on one or more Russian institutions would count. For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index, https://www.swift.com/about-us/legal/compliance-0/swift-and-sanctions.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 17:29:19.566000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-11 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Rafael Nadal not win the 2022 Men's French Open?", "id": "G2295", "background": "The 2022 French Open is scheduled for 16 May through 5 June 2022 (French Open). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:07.648000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-05 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Rafael Nadal win the 2022 Men's French Open?", "id": "G2295", "background": "The 2022 French Open is scheduled for 16 May through 5 June 2022 (French Open). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:07.648000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-05 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report fewer than 3.6 million cases of COVID-19 in Canada?", "id": "G2296", "background": "The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the \".CSV\" button to the right of the map. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:12.111000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-13 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?", "id": "G2296", "background": "The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the \".CSV\" button to the right of the map. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:12.111000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-13 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Marine Le Pen place neither first nor second in the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "G2297", "background": "The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (Euronews). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:15.077000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-10 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "G2297", "background": "The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (Euronews). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:15.077000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-10 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 stay below 150.0?", "id": "G2298", "background": "The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (FAO, see table near bottom of page). The value for April 2021 was 122.1.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:18.215000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 reach or exceed 150.0?", "id": "G2298", "background": "The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (FAO, see table near bottom of page). The value for April 2021 was 122.1.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:18.215000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating not fall below 38.5%?", "id": "G2299", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). The question would close as of the day for which a daily estimate figure is below 38.5%, but only after confirming the daily estimate figure at least three days later.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:21.905000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-08 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating fall below 38.5%?", "id": "G2299", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). The question would close as of the day for which a daily estimate figure is below 38.5%, but only after confirming the daily estimate figure at least three days later.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:21.905000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-08 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) always close below $238.00 per share?", "id": "G2301", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). The threshold would not be changed in the event of a stock split (Investopedia).", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:28.860000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) close above $238.00 per share?", "id": "G2301", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). The threshold would not be changed in the event of a stock split (Investopedia).", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:28.860000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK or EU not trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?", "id": "G2302", "background": "The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland).", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:35.419000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?", "id": "G2302", "background": "The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland).", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:35.419000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) not screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day?", "id": "G2303", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:39.216000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-26 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day?", "id": "G2303", "background": "The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:39.216000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-26 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a team from England not win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final?", "id": "G2304", "background": "The 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final is scheduled for 28 May 2022 (UEFA). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:42.727000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a team from England win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final?", "id": "G2304", "background": "The 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final is scheduled for 28 May 2022 (UEFA). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:42.727000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone stay below 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)?", "id": "G2305", "background": "The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" (Eurostat). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:47.323000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)?", "id": "G2305", "background": "The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" (Eurostat). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:47.323000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson not be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?", "id": "G2306", "background": "On 25 February 2022, President Joe Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer (The Hill). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:51.684000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:26:56.844000+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?", "id": "G2306", "background": "On 25 February 2022, President Joe Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer (The Hill). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:51.684000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:26:56.844000+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be lower than or equal to 4.15%?", "id": "G2307", "background": "The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:56.460000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-17 16:00:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%?", "id": "G2307", "background": "The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:56.460000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-17 16:00:16+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index never close at all-time high?", "id": "G2308", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 (CNBC). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:59.626000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index close at an all-time high?", "id": "G2308", "background": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 (CNBC). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 13:24:59.626000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Open" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating be in May 2022, according to the Levada Center?", "id": "G2310", "background": "The outcome determined using data as first reported by the Levada Center for May 2022 (Levada, see \"Putin's Approval Rating\"). Russian President Vladimir Putin had an approval rating of 71% in February 2022, according to the Levada Center (see \"Do you approve the activities of V. Putin as the President (Prime Minister) of Russia?\" here: https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/02/18/approval-of-institutions-the-state-of-affairs-in-the-country-trust-in-politicians-2/).", "publish_time": "2022-03-11 16:42:20.201000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-01 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Society", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than 40.0%", "Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "More than 50.0% but less than 60.0%", "Between 60.0% and 70.0%, inclusive", "More than 70.0% but less than 80.0%", "Between 80.0% and 90.0%, inclusive", "More than 90.0%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Jurassic World Dominion, according to Box Office Mojo?", "id": "G2318", "background": "Originally scheduled for release in 2021, Jurassic World Dominion is the third film in the current series (Total Film). The outcome will determined using data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 10-12 June 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 10 June 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 15:38:26.593000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-10 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "Less than $100 million", "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive", "More than $150 million but less than $200 million", "Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive", "More than $250 million" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft not successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?", "id": "G2320", "background": "After Boeing's first attempt to get its new spacecraft to dock with the ISS failed, the company is planning another attempt in May 2022 (Economist, Spaceflight Now, Space). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 15:38:32.372000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?", "id": "G2320", "background": "After Boeing's first attempt to get its new spacecraft to dock with the ISS failed, the company is planning another attempt in May 2022 (Economist, Spaceflight Now, Space). ", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 15:38:32.372000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 00:00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Technology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 25 April 2022?", "id": "G2323", "background": "The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Car and Driver, CBS News). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA, see table).", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 15:38:40.953000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-25 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Society", "Economic Indicators", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict" ], "choices": [ "Less than 3.300", "Between 3.300 and 3.600, inclusive", "More than 3.600 but less than 3.900", "Between 3.900 and 4.200, inclusive", "More than 4.200 but less than 4.500", "Between 4.500 and 4.800, inclusive", "More than 4.800" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?", "id": "G2328", "background": "When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" (FRED).", "publish_time": "2022-03-25 14:35:30.612000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 21:00:15+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Indicators", "US Policy" ], "choices": [ "Before 23 April 2022", "Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022", "Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022", "Not before 18 June 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the European Central Bank (ECB) not announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?", "id": "G2329", "background": "On 10 March 2022, the ECB announced it would end APP in the third quarter of 2022 if certain conditions were met (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on \"Monetary policy decisions\" (ECB - Press Releases). In its 10 March 2022 statement, the ECB stated that \"Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter.\" (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Governing Council has decided it will conclude the APP (e.g., the ECB announced in December 2021 that it would discontinue its Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 16 December 2021, Politico)). Conditional announcements (e.g., \"If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases\") would not count. The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.", "publish_time": "2022-03-25 16:34:36.475000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-09 11:45:04+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?", "id": "G2329", "background": "On 10 March 2022, the ECB announced it would end APP in the third quarter of 2022 if certain conditions were met (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on \"Monetary policy decisions\" (ECB - Press Releases). In its 10 March 2022 statement, the ECB stated that \"Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter.\" (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Governing Council has decided it will conclude the APP (e.g., the ECB announced in December 2021 that it would discontinue its Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 16 December 2021, Politico)). Conditional announcements (e.g., \"If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases\") would not count. The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.", "publish_time": "2022-03-25 16:34:36.475000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-09 11:45:04+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economic Policy", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "id": "G2348", "background": "In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (Politico. eu, French Ministry of the Interior). ", "publish_time": "2022-04-11 20:01:59.608000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-24 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics" ], "choices": [ "Less than 35.0%", "Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive", "More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%", "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "More than 50.0%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick not reach $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?", "id": "G2376", "background": "Top Gun: Maverick is the first sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the Memorial Day weekend of 27-30 May 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 27 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 20:04:44.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?", "id": "G2376", "background": "Top Gun: Maverick is the first sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the Memorial Day weekend of 27-30 May 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 27 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 20:04:44.710000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "id": "G2377", "background": "The question will be suspended on 16 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Billboard for the \"Week of May 21, 2022,\" expected on Tuesday 17 May 2022 (Billboard). \"Ranking highest\" means ranking highest among the five songs and does not necessarily mean ranking first overall.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 20:07:34.158000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-17 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "As It Was, Harry Styles", "Enemy, Imagine Dragons X JID", "First Class, Jack Harlow", "Heat Waves, Glass Animals", "Stay, The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US not reach or exceed 120,000?", "id": "G2378", "background": "The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (Axios). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC COVID Data Tracker). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least four calendar days later (e.g., data for 10 May 2022 would not be evaluated until 14 May 2022).", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 20:10:21.157000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000?", "id": "G2378", "background": "The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (Axios). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC COVID Data Tracker). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least four calendar days later (e.g., data for 10 May 2022 would not be evaluated until 14 May 2022).", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 20:10:21.157000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 07:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?", "id": "C141", "background": "Context. According to the Axios Harris Poll's recently released 2021 Corporate Reputation Rankings, the reputation of big tech companies has taken a \"pandemic plunge.\" Among the Big 5 tech companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft -- Amazon remains at the top at #10 (out of 100), and Facebook remains at the bottom at #98 (out of 100). Between those two extremes, Microsoft and Google's rankings dropped significantly since 2020. Only Apple's ranking improved between 2020 and 2021, from #27 to #16 (out of 100).Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the results of the 2022 Axios Harris Poll. Based on the publication schedule of previous polls, we expect the 2022 poll to be released between February and July 2022.The Axios Harris poll describes its methodology as follows: \"The Axios Harris Poll 100 is based on a survey of 42,935 Americans in a nationally representative sample. The two-step process starts fresh each year by surveying the public’s top-of-mind awareness of companies that either excel or falter in society. These 100 'most visible companies' are then rated by a second group of Americans across the seven key dimensions of reputation to determine the ranking. If a company is not on the list, it did not reach a critical level of visibility to be measured.\"Note on reading the graph: The x-axis is the average company ranking out of 100. That means a higher number = a worse reputation.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question was proposed by Foretell pro forecaster Anthony Cordetti (username: ACordetti).To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 11:45:37.122000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-28 23:59:02+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Less than 30 (good reputation)", "Between 30 and 40, inclusive", "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50", "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60", "More than 60 (bad reputation)" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?", "id": "C155", "background": "Note on this question. This question is part of a pair of experimental questions. Its sister question asks about forecasters' genuine beliefs about the origin of COVID-19. That question will not be scored. Its purpose is to serve as a ground truth to be forecasted in this question. The sister question will be scored. Its purpose is to elicit forecasts about the crowd consensus for the sister question on October 1, 2021. We recognize that the pair of questions can be gamed by providing disingenuous forecasts on the sister question to improve one's score on this question. We kindly ask that forecasters not do that. Related question. Related questions are on Metaculus and Hypermind.Context. The leading hypotheses for the origin of COVID-19 are (i) animal-to-human transmission, and (ii) a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (\"lab-leak theory\"). Two Chinese researchers stated in a paper in February 2020 that the virus likely originated in a lab in Wuhan, China. The lab-leak theory also had champions within conservative circles in the United States. The World Health Organization dismissed the lab-leak theory, however, and -- as reported by the New York Times -- the apparent politicization of the theory in the U.S. created a \"fake bubble of consensus\" among scientists and the media against the theory (quoting Matthew Yglesias).The lab-leak theory is now receiving renewed attention. On May 14, 2021,18 scientists stated in a letter to the Journal of Science that the lab-leak theory is \"viable.\" Other scientists have recently come out as less dismissive of the lab-leak theory. And on May 27, President Biden asked the U.S. intelligence community to investigate the lab-leak theory and report back to him in 90 days. (See also Washington Post timeline on how the lab-leak theory became credible.)Resolution details. This question will resolve based on the consensus crowd forecast of its sister question as of closing, at 11:59 ET on October 1, 2021. The consensus crowd forecast is always shown under \"Crowd Forecast\" button. It's the mean of the 68% most-recent forecasts. The bins are up to but not including the upper boundary, meaning, for example, in the unlikely event the consensus forecast is exactly 30%, the 30%-40% bin will be correct. Foretell staff reserve the right to omit forecasts when calculating the crowd consensus if we have reason to believe they were made in bad faith. In such a case, we will communicate to forecasters that we are omitting forecasts, and the effect on the consensus forecast, as soon as we are aware of the problem.Why are we asking these questions? If we will never know the ground truth for a question, we cannot score it in the conventional manner. Many questions of this form are of great interest, however. A new method for scoring unresolvable questions -- called \"reciprocal scoring\" -- treats the crowd consensus as the ground truth and scores forecasters based on how close their forecasts are to the crowd consensus. See Karger, Monrad, Mellers, Tetlock, \"Accelerating the Evaluation of Policy Options in Crises: The COVID-19 Pandemic\" [Forthcoming]. For a similar method, see Hypermind's Drip Rewards.For this pair of questions, we're treating the crowd consensus on October 1, 2021 as the ground truth. This question is effectively asking two questions: (i) what new information about the origins of COVID-19 do you expect to be available by October 1, 2021, and (ii) what impact do you expect it will have on the consensus view of the crowd.***To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-06-11 19:16:38.436000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 17:59:36+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "0-10%", "10-20%", "20-30%", "30-40%", "40-50%", "50-60%", "60-70%", "70-80%", "80-90%", "90-100%" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Besides El Salvador, will no other countries classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?", "id": "C163", "background": "Context. On June 9, 2021, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced that the Salvadoran Congress had voted to make Bitcoin legal tender. Legal tender is money that courts of law are required to recognize as satisfactory payment for a monetary debt. Making cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, legal tender has several benefits for developing countries without sophisticated financial systems. For one, it makes their economy less vulnerable to inflation caused by the actions of other country's central banks. Bukele cited recent actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the motivations for El Salvador's new law. Second, it makes it easier to send money without having a bank account. El Salvadorans living outside the country sent $5.92 billion to friends and family in El Salvador in 2020. According to Bukele, \"a big chunk of those 6 billion dollars is lost to intermediaries.\" Third, it makes their economy more attractive to crypto entrepreneurs. There are risks, however. According to The Independent, \"Speculation within bitcoin forums and among crypto commentators on Twitter is that the US could target El Salvador with sanctions, as it represents a threat to the strength of the US dollar - the other official currency of the country. One way to potentially mitigate against this risk would be for countries that accept bitcoin as legal tender to form an economic alliance.\"Paraguay and Panama appear closest to making Bitcoin legal tender, with politicians in both countries claiming they will introduce legislation similar to El Savador's. The Independent states that \"elected officials in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua have all spoken favourably about bitcoin, with some pledging to introduce legislation that is favourable to cryptocurrencies.\"Resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media reporting that a country other than El Salvador has taken the legal steps necessary to make Bitcoin legal tender. The question resolves positively if the legal steps, such as legislative approval of a new law, are completed by December 31, 2021, even if the law would not go into effect until a later date.***This question was proposed by Mauricio_B. To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 14:54:13.942000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 13:00:50+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?", "id": "C163", "background": "Context. On June 9, 2021, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced that the Salvadoran Congress had voted to make Bitcoin legal tender. Legal tender is money that courts of law are required to recognize as satisfactory payment for a monetary debt. Making cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, legal tender has several benefits for developing countries without sophisticated financial systems. For one, it makes their economy less vulnerable to inflation caused by the actions of other country's central banks. Bukele cited recent actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the motivations for El Salvador's new law. Second, it makes it easier to send money without having a bank account. El Salvadorans living outside the country sent $5.92 billion to friends and family in El Salvador in 2020. According to Bukele, \"a big chunk of those 6 billion dollars is lost to intermediaries.\" Third, it makes their economy more attractive to crypto entrepreneurs. There are risks, however. According to The Independent, \"Speculation within bitcoin forums and among crypto commentators on Twitter is that the US could target El Salvador with sanctions, as it represents a threat to the strength of the US dollar - the other official currency of the country. One way to potentially mitigate against this risk would be for countries that accept bitcoin as legal tender to form an economic alliance.\"Paraguay and Panama appear closest to making Bitcoin legal tender, with politicians in both countries claiming they will introduce legislation similar to El Savador's. The Independent states that \"elected officials in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua have all spoken favourably about bitcoin, with some pledging to introduce legislation that is favourable to cryptocurrencies.\"Resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media reporting that a country other than El Salvador has taken the legal steps necessary to make Bitcoin legal tender. The question resolves positively if the legal steps, such as legislative approval of a new law, are completed by December 31, 2021, even if the law would not go into effect until a later date.***This question was proposed by Mauricio_B. To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 14:54:13.942000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 13:00:50+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fail to seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?", "id": "C164", "background": "Related questions. A version of this question asking about the chance of conflict before July 1, 2021 recently closed. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region. Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Why does this question close so soon? We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., six months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.***To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 15:06:35.839000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 03:59:59+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?", "id": "C164", "background": "Related questions. A version of this question asking about the chance of conflict before July 1, 2021 recently closed. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region. Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Why does this question close so soon? We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., six months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.***To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 15:06:35.839000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 03:59:59+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "id": "C168", "background": "Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of December 20, 2021, 829 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row in the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.For time series data, see Our World in Data. Underlying data from Our World in Data is here.***To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-07-08 15:09:26.694000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-28 01:30:08+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Before January 1, 2022", "Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022", "Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022", "Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022", "Not before October 1, 2022" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will the United States not have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?", "id": "C170", "background": "Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022. In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which \"shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us.\" The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.***This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-07-15 16:35:07.610000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 15:08:51.441000+00:00", "tags": [ "EA College Tournament" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?", "id": "C170", "background": "Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022. In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which \"shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us.\" The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.***This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", "publish_time": "2021-07-15 16:35:07.610000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 15:08:51.441000+00:00", "tags": [ "EA College Tournament" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will neither the Chinese military nor other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?", "id": "C182", "background": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11% for the first half of 2021 and 14% for the second half of 2021. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. ***This question is part of a forthcoming issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-07-27 11:05:26.215000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:59:58+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?", "id": "C182", "background": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11% for the first half of 2021 and 14% for the second half of 2021. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. ***This question is part of a forthcoming issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-07-27 11:05:26.215000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:59:58+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Apr 2022", "id": "C1001", "background": "The imposition of substantial economic sanctions (White & Case) and the halting of Nord Stream 2’s certification (New York Times) following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put significant strain on the relationship between the EU and Russia, its largest supplier of natural gas. The question will be resolved using the last “Dutch TTF Gas Futures Price” on the Intercontinental Exchange. For each futures contract, the question will be resolved based on the data available on the 15th of the month prior at 13:01 GMT. For example, the forecast for April 2022 will be resolved based on the APR22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. The forecast for May 2022 will be resolved based on the May22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. ", "publish_time": "2022-03-04 19:08:19.905000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-15 13:00:16+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Less than 40", "More than or equal to 40 but less than 50", "More than or equal to 50 but less than 60", "More than or equal to 60 but less than 70", "More than or equal to 70 but less than 80", "More than or equal to 80 but less than 90", "More than or equal to 90 but less than 100", "More than or equal to 100 but less than 110", "More than or equal to 110 but less than 120", "More than or equal to 120 but less than 130", "More than or equal to 130 but less than 140", "More than or equal to 140 but less than 150", "More than or equal to 150 but less than 160", "More than or equal to 160 but less than 170", "More than or equal to 170 but less than 180", "More than or equal to 180 but less than 190", "More than or equal to 190 but less than 200", "More than or equal to 200 but less than 210", "More than or equal to 210 but less than 220", "More than or equal to 220 but less than 230", "More than or equal to 230 but less than 240", "More than or equal to 240 but less than 250", "More than or equal to 250 but less than 260", "More than or equal to 260 but less than 270", "More than or equal to 270 but less than 280", "More than or equal to 280 but less than 290", "More than or equal to 290 but less than 300", "More than or equal to 300 but less than 310", "More than or equal to 310 but less than 320", "More than or equal to 320 but less than 330", "More than or equal to 330 but less than 340", "More than or equal to 340 but less than 350", "More than or equal to 350 but less than 360", "More than or equal to 360 but less than 370", "More than or equal to 370 but less than 380", "More than or equal to 380 but less than 390", "More than or equal to 390 but less than 400", "More than or equal to 400" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "May 2022", "id": "C1002", "background": "The imposition of substantial economic sanctions (White & Case) and the halting of Nord Stream 2’s certification (New York Times) following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put significant strain on the relationship between the EU and Russia, its largest supplier of natural gas. The question will be resolved using the last “Dutch TTF Gas Futures Price” on the Intercontinental Exchange. For each futures contract, the question will be resolved based on the data available on the 15th of the month prior at 13:01 GMT. For example, the forecast for April 2022 will be resolved based on the APR22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. The forecast for May 2022 will be resolved based on the May22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. ", "publish_time": "2022-03-04 19:08:19.917000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-15 13:10:06+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Less than 40", "More than or equal to 40 but less than 50", "More than or equal to 50 but less than 60", "More than or equal to 60 but less than 70", "More than or equal to 70 but less than 80", "More than or equal to 80 but less than 90", "More than or equal to 90 but less than 100", "More than or equal to 100 but less than 110", "More than or equal to 110 but less than 120", "More than or equal to 120 but less than 130", "More than or equal to 130 but less than 140", "More than or equal to 140 but less than 150", "More than or equal to 150 but less than 160", "More than or equal to 160 but less than 170", "More than or equal to 170 but less than 180", "More than or equal to 180 but less than 190", "More than or equal to 190 but less than 200", "More than or equal to 200 but less than 210", "More than or equal to 210 but less than 220", "More than or equal to 220 but less than 230", "More than or equal to 230 but less than 240", "More than or equal to 240 but less than 250", "More than or equal to 250 but less than 260", "More than or equal to 260 but less than 270", "More than or equal to 270 but less than 280", "More than or equal to 280 but less than 290", "More than or equal to 290 but less than 300", "More than or equal to 300 but less than 310", "More than or equal to 310 but less than 320", "More than or equal to 320 but less than 330", "More than or equal to 330 but less than 340", "More than or equal to 340 but less than 350", "More than or equal to 350 but less than 360", "More than or equal to 360 but less than 370", "More than or equal to 370 but less than 380", "More than or equal to 380 but less than 390", "More than or equal to 390 but less than 400", "More than or equal to 400" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Jun 2022", "id": "C1003", "background": "The imposition of substantial economic sanctions (White & Case) and the halting of Nord Stream 2’s certification (New York Times) following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put significant strain on the relationship between the EU and Russia, its largest supplier of natural gas. The question will be resolved using the last “Dutch TTF Gas Futures Price” on the Intercontinental Exchange. For each futures contract, the question will be resolved based on the data available on the 15th of the month prior at 13:01 GMT. For example, the forecast for April 2022 will be resolved based on the APR22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. The forecast for May 2022 will be resolved based on the May22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. ", "publish_time": "2022-03-04 19:08:19.926000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 13:00:14+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Less than 40", "More than or equal to 40 but less than 50", "More than or equal to 50 but less than 60", "More than or equal to 60 but less than 70", "More than or equal to 70 but less than 80", "More than or equal to 80 but less than 90", "More than or equal to 90 but less than 100", "More than or equal to 100 but less than 110", "More than or equal to 110 but less than 120", "More than or equal to 120 but less than 130", "More than or equal to 130 but less than 140", "More than or equal to 140 but less than 150", "More than or equal to 150 but less than 160", "More than or equal to 160 but less than 170", "More than or equal to 170 but less than 180", "More than or equal to 180 but less than 190", "More than or equal to 190 but less than 200", "More than or equal to 200 but less than 210", "More than or equal to 210 but less than 220", "More than or equal to 220 but less than 230", "More than or equal to 230 but less than 240", "More than or equal to 240 but less than 250", "More than or equal to 250 but less than 260", "More than or equal to 260 but less than 270", "More than or equal to 270 but less than 280", "More than or equal to 280 but less than 290", "More than or equal to 290 but less than 300", "More than or equal to 300 but less than 310", "More than or equal to 310 but less than 320", "More than or equal to 320 but less than 330", "More than or equal to 330 but less than 340", "More than or equal to 340 but less than 350", "More than or equal to 350 but less than 360", "More than or equal to 360 but less than 370", "More than or equal to 370 but less than 380", "More than or equal to 380 but less than 390", "More than or equal to 390 but less than 400", "More than or equal to 400" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?", "id": "C1029", "background": "An aluminum shortage has seen the price of aluminum rise to historically high levels in recent months. Sanctions on Russia, the 3rd largest supplier of aluminum, may worsen the shortage and cause prices to rise even higher. This question will be resolved using the “close” price of aluminum on June 1, 2022, as reported by Markets Insider. Additional Reading:  How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Could Aggravate Semiconductor Market Dynamics  Aluminum, Copper and Silicon Shortages Compound the Global Supply Chain Woes  Aluminum Shortage Is a Global Issue With No End in Sight  Shortages 2022: 5 products expected to be in tight supply this year  Aluminum prices hit 13-year high amid power shortage in China", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 18:48:20.246000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Microelectronics", "EA College Tournament" ], "choices": [ "Less than $3000", "More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500", "More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000", "More than or equal to $4000" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?", "id": "C1035", "background": "This question will resolve using the “close” price of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) available at Yahoo Finance on 6 May 2022. The VanEck Semiconductors ETF aims to replicate the performance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, the 25 largest and most liquid US exchange-listed companies in the semiconductor industry (VanEck, MVIS). It contains companies that generate at least 50% of their revenue from semiconductor production or equipment and represents global leaders in the semiconductor industry like the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, NVIDIA, and Intel.", "publish_time": "2022-04-07 19:17:34.332000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-06 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "EA College Tournament" ], "choices": [ "Less than $240", "More than or equal to $240 but less than $260", "More than or equal to $260 but less than $280", "More than or equal to $280 but less than $300", "More than or equal to $300" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?", "id": "C1038", "background": "This question will be resolved using the “close” price of WTI Crude Oil futures on 3 June 2022 on MarketWatch.  Additional reading:  Oil prices settle up 2%, post weekly loss on stockpile releases  Analysis: U.S. strategic oil sale speeds fuel-price fix, but at what cost?", "publish_time": "2022-04-14 19:37:49.318000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-28 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "EA College Tournament" ], "choices": [ "Less than $75", "More than or equal to $75 but less than $90", "More than or equal to $90 but less than $105", "More than or equal to $105 but less than $120", "More than or equal to $120" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Jul 2022", "id": "C1040", "background": "The imposition of substantial economic sanctions (White & Case) and the halting of Nord Stream 2’s certification (New York Times) following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put significant strain on the relationship between the EU and Russia, its largest supplier of natural gas. The question will be resolved using the last “Dutch TTF Gas Futures Price” on the Intercontinental Exchange. For each futures contract, the question will be resolved based on the data available on the 15th of the month prior at 13:01 GMT. For example, the forecast for April 2022 will be resolved based on the APR22 contract price at 3/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. The forecast for May 2022 will be resolved based on the MAY22 contract price at 4/15/2022 at 13:01 GMT. ", "publish_time": "2022-04-16 04:00:00.295000+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-15 13:12:22.228000+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "Less than 40", "More than or equal to 40 but less than 50", "More than or equal to 50 but less than 60", "More than or equal to 60 but less than 70", "More than or equal to 70 but less than 80", "More than or equal to 80 but less than 90", "More than or equal to 90 but less than 100", "More than or equal to 100 but less than 110", "More than or equal to 110 but less than 120", "More than or equal to 120 but less than 130", "More than or equal to 130 but less than 140", "More than or equal to 140 but less than 150", "More than or equal to 150 but less than 160", "More than or equal to 160 but less than 170", "More than or equal to 170 but less than 180", "More than or equal to 180 but less than 190", "More than or equal to 190 but less than 200", "More than or equal to 200 but less than 210", "More than or equal to 210 but less than 220", "More than or equal to 220 but less than 230", "More than or equal to 230 but less than 240", "More than or equal to 240 but less than 250", "More than or equal to 250 but less than 260", "More than or equal to 260 but less than 270", "More than or equal to 270 but less than 280", "More than or equal to 280 but less than 290", "More than or equal to 290 but less than 300", "More than or equal to 300 but less than 310", "More than or equal to 310 but less than 320", "More than or equal to 320 but less than 330", "More than or equal to 330 but less than 340", "More than or equal to 340 but less than 350", "More than or equal to 350 but less than 360", "More than or equal to 360 but less than 370", "More than or equal to 370 but less than 380", "More than or equal to 380 but less than 390", "More than or equal to 390 but less than 400", "More than or equal to 400" ], "qtype": "mc" }, { "question": "Will China not send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?", "id": "C938", "background": "Context. On three separate days in October, China sent a new daily record of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ): 38 planes on October 1, 39 planes on October 2, and 56 planes on October 4. The ADIZ, which is broader than Taiwan's sovereign airspace, designates the area in which a country has the right to tell entering planes to identify themselves. According to the New York Times, the incursions \"reflect Beijing’s increasingly unabashed signaling that it wants to absorb the self-ruled island and will not rule out military means to do so.\" Taiwan began issuing public notices of Chinese military incursions of its ADIZ in September of last year.Resolution details. The current record is 56 planes. If a new daily record is set while this question is active, the new record will become the standard. This question resolves based on reports from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense.Question format. This question asks about the following month, beginning with the month of December. It rolls over at the beginning of every month. For example, beginning on December 1, all forecasts will be for the month of January, and beginning on January 1, all forecasts will be for the month of February. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.* * *To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 13:45:53.863000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?", "id": "C938", "background": "Context. On three separate days in October, China sent a new daily record of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ): 38 planes on October 1, 39 planes on October 2, and 56 planes on October 4. The ADIZ, which is broader than Taiwan's sovereign airspace, designates the area in which a country has the right to tell entering planes to identify themselves. According to the New York Times, the incursions \"reflect Beijing’s increasingly unabashed signaling that it wants to absorb the self-ruled island and will not rule out military means to do so.\" Taiwan began issuing public notices of Chinese military incursions of its ADIZ in September of last year.Resolution details. The current record is 56 planes. If a new daily record is set while this question is active, the new record will become the standard. This question resolves based on reports from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense.Question format. This question asks about the following month, beginning with the month of December. It rolls over at the beginning of every month. For example, beginning on December 1, all forecasts will be for the month of January, and beginning on January 1, all forecasts will be for the month of February. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.* * *To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 13:45:53.863000+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be negative?", "id": "M804", "background": "It was previously asked whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive. The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.", "publish_time": "2020-05-06 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?", "id": "M804", "background": "It was previously asked whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive. The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.", "publish_time": "2020-05-06 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the next German federal election result in the replacement of Angela Merkel?", "id": "M1457", "background": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. Given the recent controversies and the rise of populist right-wing party AfD that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a grand coalition would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?", "publish_time": "2018-09-28 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-24 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "id": "M1457", "background": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. Given the recent controversies and the rise of populist right-wing party AfD that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a grand coalition would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?", "publish_time": "2018-09-28 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-24 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron not be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election", "id": "M2511", "background": "Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron, born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of Presidential Elections in 2017, Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30% and the Mouvement des gilets jaunes protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election? Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.", "publish_time": "2019-01-09 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?", "id": "M2511", "background": "Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron, born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of Presidential Elections in 2017, Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30% and the Mouvement des gilets jaunes protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election? Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.", "publish_time": "2019-01-09 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW not be sold before 2022?", "id": "M2578", "background": "Context Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): KITE KRAFT Kitepower SkySails Group Ampyx Power SkyPull The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is duration testing a 100kW system. Question Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? Resolution This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.", "publish_time": "2020-07-01 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 19:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Energy", "Business – startup companies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", "id": "M2578", "background": "Context Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): KITE KRAFT Kitepower SkySails Group Ampyx Power SkyPull The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is duration testing a 100kW system. Question Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? Resolution This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.", "publish_time": "2020-07-01 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 19:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Energy", "Business – startup companies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021, will Blizzard not announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?", "id": "M2606", "background": "Due to the DeepMind team's recent achievements with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games. Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021? This question asks: In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? New content means: 1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity. 2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second. 3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from: -new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, all three of which occur pretty routinely. New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.", "publish_time": "2021-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – AI – Human vs AI gaming", "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Computing – Gaming" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?", "id": "M2606", "background": "Due to the DeepMind team's recent achievements with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games. Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021? This question asks: In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? New content means: 1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity. 2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second. 3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from: -new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, all three of which occur pretty routinely. New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.", "publish_time": "2021-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – AI – Human vs AI gaming", "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Computing – Gaming" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?", "id": "M3052", "background": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is xenotransplantation, in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be rejected very quickly by human hosts. Second, pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. Nonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example this startup is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates. When will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? The organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.", "publish_time": "2019-08-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-06 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biological Sciences – Genetics", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": "2035-06-13", "min": "2019-10-13", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?", "id": "M3205", "background": "Climate sensitivity is arguably the most important number in climate change. It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value (Vial et al. 2013). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics (Skeie et al. 2017). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C (Lapenis, 2006). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past (Knutti et al., 2017). Some have argued that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) (Freeman et al., 2015). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report (IPCC, 2014) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report (IPCC, 1990). A 2018 article aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently scheduled for publication in 2022, will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range? What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report? Resolution This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in Roe and Baker (2007), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.", "publish_time": "2019-10-13 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-09 13:07:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Energy and Climate Series" ], "choices": { "max": 6.5, "min": 1.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to Alexa analytics results?", "id": "M3275", "background": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to Alexa analytics results? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to Metaculus.com that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.", "publish_time": "2019-11-04 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-02 00:47:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": { "max": "2030-10-31", "min": "2019-10-31", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Kim Jong-un cease to be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "id": "M3445", "background": "Kim Jong-un, born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.", "publish_time": "2020-01-08 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "id": "M3445", "background": "Kim Jong-un, born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.", "publish_time": "2020-01-08 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?", "id": "M3520", "background": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the photovoltaic effect. Solar pv generated around 2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017. In Germany, an estimated 7% of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, according to the IPCC, the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in 2018, the weighted-average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh (IRENA, 2019). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS CPI for all urban consumers and all items. In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.", "publish_time": "2020-01-26 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Energy and Climate Series" ], "choices": { "max": 0.15, "min": 0.001, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?", "id": "M3708", "background": "Climate sensitivity is arguably the most important number in climate change. It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value (Vial et al. 2013). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics (Skeie et al. 2017). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C (Lapenis, 2006). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past (Knutti et al., 2017). Some have argued that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) (Freeman et al., 2015). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report (IPCC, 2014) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report (IPCC, 1990). The IPCC's sixth report is currently scheduled for publication in 2022. A 2018 article aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. Although seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. (Freeman et al.) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly. What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report? Resolution This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in Roe and Baker (2007), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.", "publish_time": "2020-02-24 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-09 13:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Energy and Climate Series" ], "choices": { "max": 3.5, "min": 0.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Qatar hold its first legislative election?", "id": "M3830", "background": "Constitutionally, the Consultative Assembly of Qatar is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The first general election was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a committee was established to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced. When will Qatar hold its first legislative election? If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.", "publish_time": "2020-03-13 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-02 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": { "max": "2037-01-01", "min": "2020-03-11", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "id": "M4017", "background": "In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.", "publish_time": "2020-04-07 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": "2024-12-31", "min": "2020-04-30", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?", "id": "M4032", "background": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist Bryan Caplan wrote a blog post titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to bet on it, I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: What will the US unemployment rate be in 2021? The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown here, as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021. Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: What will inflation be in the US in 2021? Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?", "publish_time": "2020-04-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?", "id": "M4033", "background": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist Bryan Caplan wrote a blog post titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to bet on it, I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021? The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021. Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?", "publish_time": "2020-04-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 10, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the US not see mass price controls in 2021?", "id": "M4035", "background": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist Bryan Caplan wrote a blog post titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to bet on it, I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? This question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators. For the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers: USA Today The Wall Street Journal The New York Times The Los Angeles Times The Washington Post The Chicago Tribune The Boston Tribune Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: What will inflation be in the US in 2021? What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?", "publish_time": "2020-04-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?", "id": "M4035", "background": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist Bryan Caplan wrote a blog post titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to bet on it, I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? This question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators. For the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers: USA Today The Wall Street Journal The New York Times The Los Angeles Times The Washington Post The Chicago Tribune The Boston Tribune Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: What will inflation be in the US in 2021? What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?", "publish_time": "2020-04-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?", "id": "M4053", "background": "From Wikipedia the Alexa Traffic Rank is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity. As of April 6th 2020, Metaculus.com's rank is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?", "publish_time": "2020-05-03 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-26 08:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Internet", "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": { "max": 1000000, "min": 100000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?", "id": "M4235", "background": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence. In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question. Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks: ImageNet WikiText-103 Cityscapes Additional uni-modal benchmarks from paperswithcode.com may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review paperswithcode.com two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. Resolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030. Specifics and Caveats: Multi-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. For text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream. For image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream. If paperswithcode.com shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.", "publish_time": "2020-05-13 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-05 14:33:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning" ], "choices": { "max": "2030-01-01", "min": "2020-04-22", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?", "id": "M4719", "background": "Context Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of international travel restrictions and statewide stay-at-home orders were put in place. The impact on the aviation industry has been severe. According to Conde Nast Traveler: On April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers screened by the TSA fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots. Some states have begun reopening, but domestic airline executives have warned that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. These were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019: January 2019 676,190 February 2019 615,986 March 2019 738,969 April 2019 719,238 May 2019 751,725 June 2019 754,175 July 2019 783,588 August 2019 783,830 September 2019 716,792 October 2019 750,827 November 2019 703,616 December 2019 728,899 Question When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? Resolution This question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics. To pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month k be Δ k ≡ y k −0.8× y 2019 k , and let t 1 be the last day of the last month with Δ 1 <0 , and let t 2 be the last day of the first month with Δ 2 ≥0. Then the exact resolution date will be given by t res = t 1 +( t 2 − t 1 )( Δ 1 Δ 1 − Δ 2 ). Related Questions Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021? When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated? When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?", "publish_time": "2020-06-29 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 08:50:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Business", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": "2027-12-29", "min": "2020-06-25", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases not be achieved before January 1st, 2022?", "id": "M4745", "background": "Long-read sequencing via Oxford Nanopore sequencers is becoming more popular and widespread in labs throughout the world. With this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases. The longest published read to date measured 2,272,580 bases in length, although the ONT website claims >4,000,000 bases (which likely is internal data as no source is given). As longer reads are preferred for e.g. spanning genomic repeat sequences and co-detecting mutations on a single DNA strand, protocols for \"ultra-long\" read generation are being refined and published. Will we see at least one read with a length of >= 5.000.000 bases before January 1st, 2022? The question resolves positively if the result has been published in a peer-reviewed journal.", "publish_time": "2021-06-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biological Sciences – General", "Technology – Biotech" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?", "id": "M4745", "background": "Long-read sequencing via Oxford Nanopore sequencers is becoming more popular and widespread in labs throughout the world. With this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases. The longest published read to date measured 2,272,580 bases in length, although the ONT website claims >4,000,000 bases (which likely is internal data as no source is given). As longer reads are preferred for e.g. spanning genomic repeat sequences and co-detecting mutations on a single DNA strand, protocols for \"ultra-long\" read generation are being refined and published. Will we see at least one read with a length of >= 5.000.000 bases before January 1st, 2022? The question resolves positively if the result has been published in a peer-reviewed journal.", "publish_time": "2021-06-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biological Sciences – General", "Technology – Biotech" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scott Morrison not be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "id": "M4774", "background": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent 'leadership spills'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and five separate Prime Ministers. In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over a trip to Hawaii during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one poll indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website 'pm.gov.au' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.", "publish_time": "2020-08-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "id": "M4774", "background": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent 'leadership spills'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and five separate Prime Ministers. In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over a trip to Hawaii during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one poll indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website 'pm.gov.au' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.", "publish_time": "2020-08-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?", "id": "M4790", "background": "According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, Elon Musk is currently worth $187 billion and is the second richest person behind Jeff Bezos. Forbes also publishes a billionaire list, where Elon comes in second but with a lower net worth of $177.6 billion. According to his profile, Elon owns 21% of Tesla but has pledged more than half his stake as collateral for loans. SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, is now valued at $74 billion after its latest funding round in February 2021. He has 54% ownership of SpaceX, 80% of Boring Company, and 90% of Neuralink. This question asks what Elon Musk's total net worth will be according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index on December 31st, 2021 at 11:59 PM UTC. This question is denominated in billions of US dollars. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-28 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": { "max": 400, "min": 100, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?", "id": "M4831", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States. On March 13, 2020, Trump declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day simple moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution)", "publish_time": "2020-07-27 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-30 10:34:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2024-12-23", "min": "2020-07-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", "id": "M4841", "background": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and the world's richest human, has invested significant resources in his aerospace company Blue Origin. While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the New Shepard reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous.", "publish_time": "2020-07-28 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-20 13:22:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technological Advances", "Industry – Space", "Business – startup companies" ], "choices": { "max": "2025-12-25", "min": "2020-07-16", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Antifa not officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?", "id": "M4946", "background": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, tweeting May 31st: The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has similarly been campaigning for this move: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions. “Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview. Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, in Slate, we can read: While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities. In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system. However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate. The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida. So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022? Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. It must happen before 2022. It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.", "publish_time": "2020-08-16 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics – terrorism", "Law", "Social issues – Crime and Violence" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?", "id": "M4946", "background": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, tweeting May 31st: The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has similarly been campaigning for this move: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions. “Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview. Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, in Slate, we can read: While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities. In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system. However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate. The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida. So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022? Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. It must happen before 2022. It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.", "publish_time": "2020-08-16 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics – terrorism", "Law", "Social issues – Crime and Violence" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By start of 2022, will there not be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses?", "id": "M4994", "background": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. This paper argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And this recent article indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask: By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? Resolution will be via the FCC database, likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes: This would be governed by FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18. Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".", "publish_time": "2020-08-15 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-04 08:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses?", "id": "M4994", "background": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. This paper argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And this recent article indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask: By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? Resolution will be via the FCC database, likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes: This would be governed by FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18. Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".", "publish_time": "2020-08-15 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-04 08:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" not be pressed?", "id": "M5311", "background": "Petrov Day is the yearly anniversary of the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in, with a big red button with much lower stakes: And you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\" Lesswrong has hosted an event along these lines in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site was not took down in 2019, and was took down in 2020. If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed? If the site lesswrong.com hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.", "publish_time": "2020-09-29 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-24 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Internet" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?", "id": "M5311", "background": "Petrov Day is the yearly anniversary of the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in, with a big red button with much lower stakes: And you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\" Lesswrong has hosted an event along these lines in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site was not took down in 2019, and was took down in 2020. If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed? If the site lesswrong.com hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.", "publish_time": "2020-09-29 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-24 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Internet" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will John McAfee not receive a prison term of at least 3 years?", "id": "M5380", "background": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion: Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud. The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee, saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government. In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents, the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.” The DOJ’s charges against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison. The SEC filing is a much more interesting read, with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges. Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-01-14 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?", "id": "M5380", "background": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion: Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud. The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee, saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government. In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents, the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.” The DOJ’s charges against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison. The SEC filing is a much more interesting read, with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges. Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-01-14 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Korea not launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "id": "M5415", "background": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.' In October 2020, North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang. Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe. \"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. \"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University. Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.", "publish_time": "2020-10-14 03:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "id": "M5415", "background": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.' In October 2020, North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang. Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe. \"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. \"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University. Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.", "publish_time": "2020-10-14 03:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?", "id": "M5432", "background": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease. Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected. The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k). If the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous. Previous question: Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?", "publish_time": "2020-10-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 12, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", "id": "M5458", "background": "A correction is defined as, a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. When will be the next S&P 500 correction? The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.", "publish_time": "2020-10-19 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-22 22:10:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": "2025-12-31", "min": "2020-10-15", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", "id": "M5466", "background": "reddit.com/r/sneerclub is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the rationalist community, and adjacent communities. https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub tracks their subscriber count over time. How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.", "publish_time": "2020-10-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Internet" ], "choices": { "max": 100000, "min": 7300, "deriv_ratio": 13.698630136986301 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will USA not top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", "id": "M5541", "background": "The 2020 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: Number of Gold Medals (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-21 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", "id": "M5541", "background": "The 2020 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: Number of Gold Medals (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-21 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Japan not place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "id": "M5542", "background": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last 5 placings were: 2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th Will they come in the Top 4 again? Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: Number of Gold Medals (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-21 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "id": "M5542", "background": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last 5 placings were: 2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th Will they come in the Top 4 again? Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: Number of Gold Medals (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-21 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the (English speaking) world be less happy in 2021 than in 2020?", "id": "M5552", "background": "The Hedonometer is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data is available here. Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".", "publish_time": "2020-10-31 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-28 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "id": "M5552", "background": "The Hedonometer is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data is available here. Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".", "publish_time": "2020-10-31 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-28 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games not take place in 2021?", "id": "M5555", "background": "The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021. Will they go ahead? Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", "id": "M5555", "background": "The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021. Will they go ahead? Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-11-03 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?", "id": "M5560", "background": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. 51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain, which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. With new announcements from Tesla’s battery day, and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price. Low prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would drop around 8.4%. It is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers. What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? Resolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s AFDC which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. Price data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.", "publish_time": "2020-10-31 00:26:45+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 00:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Industry – Transportation" ], "choices": { "max": 150000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will China not reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "id": "M5574", "background": "China instituted the NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well. The International Energy Association (IEA) states that: “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.” China expects an NEV credit target of 14% in 2021 and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. Vehicle producers need to hit the number of credits needed each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become carbon neutral by 2060. Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the International Energy Association, the International Council of Clean Transportation, or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).", "publish_time": "2020-11-01 20:17:49+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 19:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "id": "M5574", "background": "China instituted the NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well. The International Energy Association (IEA) states that: “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.” China expects an NEV credit target of 14% in 2021 and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. Vehicle producers need to hit the number of credits needed each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become carbon neutral by 2060. Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the International Energy Association, the International Council of Clean Transportation, or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).", "publish_time": "2020-11-01 20:17:49+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 19:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation", "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Germany not overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "id": "M5577", "background": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve climate neutrality and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. As reported through ZSW, a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately 500% between 2015 and 2019. The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019. The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target, with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. Volkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by 2023 or earlier. If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. A question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found here. Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? Resolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their data on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.", "publish_time": "2020-11-01 20:29:34+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-22 20:28:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "id": "M5577", "background": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve climate neutrality and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. As reported through ZSW, a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately 500% between 2015 and 2019. The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019. The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target, with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. Volkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by 2023 or earlier. If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. A question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found here. Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? Resolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their data on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.", "publish_time": "2020-11-01 20:29:34+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-22 20:28:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?", "id": "M5582", "background": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019. With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over 14% of the world’s EV market. In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered 139,300 vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at 90,650 How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available here. Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like this.", "publish_time": "2020-11-04 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-30 20:57:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Industry – Transportation", "Economy" ], "choices": { "max": 3000000, "min": 200000, "deriv_ratio": 15 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "id": "M5638", "background": "Parallel question for: Hungary, Greece. The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with the new mink coronavirus strain. What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? The value will be taken from the value on Euromomo site once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration).", "publish_time": "2020-11-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 2.55, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "id": "M5639", "background": "Parallel question for: Denmark, Hungary. The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? The value will be taken from the Euromomo site once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration).", "publish_time": "2020-11-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 3.8, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "id": "M5640", "background": "Parallel question for: Denmark, Greece. The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? The value will be taken from the Euromomo site on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in.", "publish_time": "2020-11-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 3, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt not be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "id": "M5721", "background": "Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test. A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here. As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2020-11-17 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Technology – Weapons" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "id": "M5721", "background": "Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test. A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here. As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2020-11-17 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Technology – Weapons" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Biden fail to keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "id": "M5730", "background": "By most accounts, Joe Biden has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election, winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if \"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\" Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, \"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\" According to the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker, presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-11-23 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "id": "M5730", "background": "By most accounts, Joe Biden has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election, winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if \"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\" Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, \"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\" According to the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker, presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-11-23 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?", "id": "M5735", "background": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from this question. In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.", "publish_time": "2020-11-20 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 10, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", "id": "M5773", "background": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach herd immunity. Current research suggests that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Early results from the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. Early research results also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, stated that he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. 70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with 42% of Americans in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-11-28 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-22 13:36:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-12-21", "min": "2020-11-12", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", "id": "M5780", "background": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis. What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? Specifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index be divided by the value of CPI less shelter both divided by their values on Jan-2000. For example: for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2020-12-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 1.8, "min": 1.2, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the price of bitcoin remain at or above $10K USD in 2021?", "id": "M5826", "background": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, it crashed to below $7K within five months. Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on coinmarketcap.com drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise. If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-05 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies", "Computing – Blockchain" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "id": "M5826", "background": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, it crashed to below $7K within five months. Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on coinmarketcap.com drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise. If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-05 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies", "Computing – Blockchain" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?", "id": "M5827", "background": "Background As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Boulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations (153) in the state of Colorado. 90 of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to ChargePoint’s map of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. DC Fast charging, also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge 80% of their battery power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take 4 to 12 hours to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. However, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. Currently, Boulder boasts a fleet of 5,342 electric vehicles, including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Colorado offers a variety of incentive programs to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to fall by $2,000 in 2021 and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently passed legislation allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers. How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? Resolution Criteria: Resolution criteria will be provided through ChargePoint’s map of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits. Unfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through AFDC and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. Data: Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found here, but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 23:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?", "id": "M5828", "background": "Background As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Orange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations (200) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% (165) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to ChargePoint’s map of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. DC Fast charging, also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge 80% of their battery power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take 4 to 12 hours to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. However, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. Currently, Orlando boasts a fleet of 5,375 electric vehicles, including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center. The Floridian government announced an $8.6 million investment to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan. They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida. How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? Resolution Criteria: Resolution criteria will be provided through ChargePoint’s map of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits. Unfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through AFDC and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. Data: Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found here, but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.", "publish_time": "2020-12-04 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-02 00:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Transportation" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?", "id": "M5839", "background": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. Here is their list for 2019 (the last complete list, as of writing this question). How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.", "publish_time": "2020-12-05 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biology – Medicine – Clinical Trials", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Election Fraud myth not persist among the American public for a full year?", "id": "M5848", "background": "Currently, according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos, \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden, Trump's court cases failing, recounts continuing to show Biden winning, states officially certifying results, Trump exhausting all legal options, and AG Barr saying no fraud, this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, Morning Consult polling found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of: the 2020 election was \"rigged\" the 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\") Donald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president Joe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president Donald Trump won in 2020 Joe Biden lost in 2020 This question resolves negatively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views. This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-07 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?", "id": "M5848", "background": "Currently, according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos, \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden, Trump's court cases failing, recounts continuing to show Biden winning, states officially certifying results, Trump exhausting all legal options, and AG Barr saying no fraud, this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, Morning Consult polling found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of: the 2020 election was \"rigged\" the 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\") Donald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president Joe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president Donald Trump won in 2020 Joe Biden lost in 2020 This question resolves negatively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views. This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-07 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "id": "M5860", "background": "The 100m final is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie if this question resolves negative) then this question will resolve ambiguous Related Questions: Women's 100m Final", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": { "max": 10.1, "min": 9.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "id": "M5861", "background": "The 100m final is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time but has been static since the 1980s. This is consistent with most women's athletics records and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie if this question resolves negative) then this question will resolve ambiguous Related questions: Men's 100m Final", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": { "max": 11.2, "min": 10.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Gladys Berejiklian remain Premier of NSW until the next state election?", "id": "M5883", "background": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. 2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the \"gold standard\". Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have caused controversy. The ICAC revelations were followed by other missteps by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances. (Based on the short-fuse question by @helpermonkey ) Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. The question will resolve retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", "id": "M5883", "background": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. 2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the \"gold standard\". Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have caused controversy. The ICAC revelations were followed by other missteps by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor. Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances. (Based on the short-fuse question by @helpermonkey ) Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW. For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian. The question will resolve retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.", "publish_time": "2020-12-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?", "id": "M5887", "background": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022. What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? The question will be resolved according to the approximate hue of the Color as estimated by the relevant Encycolorpedia entry. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-17 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business" ], "choices": { "max": 360, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5906", "background": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest weekly WHO situation report will be consulted.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 700000000, "min": 68000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5907", "background": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest weekly WHO situation report will be consulted.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 16000000, "min": 1500000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5908", "background": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? The CDC COVID Data Tracker will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 1300000, "min": 285000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", "id": "M5909", "background": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased 800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.. This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on 11 August 2020. OWS is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? The OWS “Fact Sheet,” page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-26 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 3000000000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", "id": "M5910", "background": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for emergency use authorization (EUA) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] (https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…) and Moderna filed on 30 November. The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on 10 December to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on 17 December to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter. In a press briefing on 09 December, OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: the Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February. AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a series of missteps with its first phase III trial. An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February. Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? The FDA “Emergency Use Authorization,” page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-26 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 6, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "id": "M5912", "background": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a presidential proclamation that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of 26 European countries. This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "The Economist 2021" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-12-30", "min": "2020-12-11", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Netanyahu not be convicted by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5914", "background": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021, though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5914", "background": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021, though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act not be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?", "id": "M5915", "background": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans. It seems likely that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option. Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Law – Legislation", "Industry – Health", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?", "id": "M5915", "background": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans. It seems likely that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option. Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Law – Legislation", "Industry – Health", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will 2021 not be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "id": "M5916", "background": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the “...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880” and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016. Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "id": "M5916", "background": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the “...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880” and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016. Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the world not agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "id": "M5918", "background": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference. It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "id": "M5918", "background": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference. It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. not join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "id": "M5920", "background": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about 30% of the world’s people and output, which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which President Trump withdrew from in 2017. President-elect Joe Biden has been noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP. Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "id": "M5920", "background": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about 30% of the world’s people and output, which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which President Trump withdrew from in 2017. President-elect Joe Biden has been noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP. Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scotland not set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "id": "M5922", "background": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently “…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”. The UK’s conservative government has indicated that it will oppose the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "id": "M5922", "background": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently “…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”. The UK’s conservative government has indicated that it will oppose the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?", "id": "M5923", "background": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-….) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a 33% increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the economically stricken United States. With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase 11% in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over 6% higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach 4.4%. What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided here.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 12, "min": -6, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the S&P 500 not experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "id": "M5926", "background": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at new record highs as part of a sustained recovery that follows a 34% bear market in March/April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts have questioned how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the S&P 500 experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "id": "M5926", "background": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at new record highs as part of a sustained recovery that follows a 34% bear market in March/April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts have questioned how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the S&P 500 experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", "id": "M5927", "background": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as “FAAMG”. They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Finance – markets" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", "id": "M5928", "background": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at 68% use in all transportation needs for the US and 56% globally. However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. The US Energy Information Association (EIA) has published its 2021 predictions: “The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the global price of WTI crude oil for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy", "Industry – Energy" ], "choices": { "max": 150, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?", "id": "M5931", "background": "The daily number of flights in operation globally dropped precipitously this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019. What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? Flightrader24’s “2020 7-day moving average” for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.", "publish_time": "2020-12-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 03:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": 150000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "id": "M5942", "background": "Movie theaters have been hard-hit by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the “Domestic Yearly Box Office” page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.", "publish_time": "2020-12-11 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2021", "Economy", "Entertainment Industry" ], "choices": { "max": 13500000000, "min": 1000000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", "id": "M5943", "background": "Assessing excess mortality is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, many cases are undetected, which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. As of December 12th, 2020, the CDC estimates 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-02 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 1500000, "min": 300000, "deriv_ratio": 5 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", "id": "M5974", "background": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-06 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-22 10:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": { "max": 1, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?", "id": "M5994", "background": "Context The property and casualty insurance market is a $1.6 trillion industry, and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners: Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. Following the industry’s 2017 highest-ever losses, predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a 49.5% net income increase in 2018, followed by a 7.9% net income increase in 2019. According to the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers: Premium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018. The same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001. COVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and CIAB reports that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases. CIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that: \"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\" What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022? Resolution Criteria This question will resolve according to CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report for Q1 2022. A question for Q1 2021 can be found here", "publish_time": "2020-12-20 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-28 21:19:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur outside of Q1?", "id": "M5995", "background": "Context In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over 300,000 with over 2,500 new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can push cities back into lockdown, causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. However, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, employment should increase. For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1? Resolution Criteria Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.", "publish_time": "2020-12-20 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 20:26:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?", "id": "M5995", "background": "Context In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over 300,000 with over 2,500 new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can push cities back into lockdown, causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. However, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, employment should increase. For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1? Resolution Criteria Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.", "publish_time": "2020-12-20 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 20:26:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?", "id": "M5999", "background": "High Impact Athletes is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player Marcus Daniell, which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher. This question asks: How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available here, but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports", "Social issues – Charities", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 500, "min": 20, "deriv_ratio": 25 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose both did not and would not have saved lives?", "id": "M6000", "background": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. Michael Mina and Zeynep Tupfekci advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about #SecondDoseDelay: For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day. Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? Question resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. Question will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.", "publish_time": "2021-01-03 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-02 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "id": "M6000", "background": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. Michael Mina and Zeynep Tupfekci advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about #SecondDoseDelay: For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day. Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? Question resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. Question will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.", "publish_time": "2021-01-03 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-02 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?", "id": "M6003", "background": "High Impact Athletes is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player Marcus Daniell, which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After launching at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated. This question asks: How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available here, but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-22 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports", "Social issues – Charities", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 2000000, "min": 44000, "deriv_ratio": 45.45454545454545 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC not recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "id": "M6008", "background": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, announced that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson announced new lockdowns in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is said to account for 60% of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has prompted concerns that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The British Medical Journal has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.” If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is. Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their website that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-21 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-04 23:10:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "id": "M6008", "background": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, announced that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson announced new lockdowns in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is said to account for 60% of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has prompted concerns that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The British Medical Journal has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.” If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is. Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their website that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-21 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-04 23:10:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "id": "M6013", "background": "From Wikipedia: Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. If Elden Ring is not released before January 1, 2026, then this question resolves as \">January 1, 2026\". In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.", "publish_time": "2021-01-13 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 03:31:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Gaming" ], "choices": { "max": "2025-12-30", "min": "2021-01-11", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?", "id": "M6016", "background": "A definition courtesy of FRED: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. A falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k. Initial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then. When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? This prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-14 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-10 00:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": "2030-12-28", "min": "2020-12-26", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Restaurant Brands International continue sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "id": "M6018", "background": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework (p. 6.) (archive link #1, archive link #2), they stated: “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.” A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: Wikipedia) See: Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments? for a sceptical perspective. Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). If the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy", "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "id": "M6018", "background": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework (p. 6.) (archive link #1, archive link #2), they stated: “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.” A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: Wikipedia) See: Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments? for a sceptical perspective. Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). If the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy", "Business" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will none of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "id": "M6020", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here. Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"Evaluating Charities\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"Evaluation Criteria\". Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities are in ACE: Top and Standout charities by Jan 1, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "id": "M6020", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here. Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"Evaluating Charities\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"Evaluation Criteria\". Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities are in ACE: Top and Standout charities by Jan 1, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities not see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?", "id": "M6024", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? Whether an event is a \"scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances\" will be resolved per the \"I know it when I see it\" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-18 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?", "id": "M6024", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? Whether an event is a \"scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances\" will be resolved per the \"I know it when I see it\" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-18 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities not see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?", "id": "M6025", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. ACE explicitly includes \"the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)\" as part of \"Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture\", one of their seven evaluation criteria during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to Encompass. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? Whether an event is a \"scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination\" will be resolved per the \"I know it when I see it\" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?", "id": "M6025", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. ACE explicitly includes \"the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)\" as part of \"Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture\", one of their seven evaluation criteria during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to Encompass. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? Whether an event is a \"scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination\" will be resolved per the \"I know it when I see it\" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-30 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?", "id": "M6026", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered counter-cyclical donation schedules (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? This question will be resolved according to ACE's own financials page, which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757 Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": { "max": 2500000, "min": 250000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?", "id": "M6027", "background": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered counter-cyclical donation schedules (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own financials page, which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy" ], "choices": { "max": 25000000, "min": 2500000, "deriv_ratio": 10 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", "id": "M6029", "background": "The Travel Pass Initiative of the International Air Transport Association, now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of \"immunoprivilege,\" and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-13 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Industry – Transportation", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": 3000000000, "min": 30000000, "deriv_ratio": 100 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants not infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "id": "M6031", "background": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A pre-print suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is 501.V2, which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 South African Online Portal has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases: The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2]. Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? Resolution This question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted. For a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant. To establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question. See this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility here. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-27 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 22:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "id": "M6031", "background": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A pre-print suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is 501.V2, which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 South African Online Portal has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases: The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2]. Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? Resolution This question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted. For a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant. To establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question. See this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility here. Fine print", "publish_time": "2020-12-27 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 22:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew Yang loose the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "id": "M6051", "background": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand… In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew… Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 03:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "id": "M6051", "background": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand… In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew… Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 03:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6056", "background": "Background Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from 8% to almost 25% between spring of 2019 and 2020. Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy. How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the Labor Force Statistics taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 21:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 10000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6057", "background": "Background The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. The AARP finds that: “As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. “In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.” How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the Labor Force Statistics taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.", "publish_time": "2020-12-29 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 13000, "min": 3000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6060", "background": "Background The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still prefer a physical store, 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated 4.1%, the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. In 2011, approximately 19.7 million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change. How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the Labor Force Statistics taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:14:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 22000, "min": 15000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6062", "background": "Background The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately 1.2 million over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only 300,000 more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, President Trump announced a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. With resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue furloughing employees due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to take pay cuts and furloughed days. Going forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to triple funding to K-12 programs serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers. How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the Labor Force Statistics taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.", "publish_time": "2020-12-31 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:25:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 17000, "min": 10000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6063", "background": "3 million extra people were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the largest employer across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates over 50%. As the possibility of tele-health becomes more available with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth could continue for office-based health care jobs. While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men. For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same. How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the Labor Force Statistics taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.", "publish_time": "2021-02-13 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:31:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 23000, "min": 18000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "id": "M6091", "background": "One of Open Philanthropy's focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence. In previous years, the total amounts granted were: 2020: $14,210,367 2019: $63,234,500 (including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology) 2018: $4,160,392 2017: $43,222,473 (including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI) 2016: $7,749,985 2015: $1,186,000 (to the Future of Life Institute) How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's Grants Database page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-07 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-19 09:26:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 100000000, "min": 3000000, "deriv_ratio": 33.333333333333336 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index remain below 3.0% until 2024?", "id": "M6092", "background": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. The \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? This question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. This question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.", "publish_time": "2021-02-13 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-13 11:37:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "id": "M6092", "background": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. The \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? This question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. This question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.", "publish_time": "2021-02-13 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-13 11:37:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will YouTube not be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "id": "M6094", "background": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) there is a draft legislation has been passed in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny published a video on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-01-02 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-14 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Technology – Internet" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "id": "M6094", "background": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) there is a draft legislation has been passed in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny published a video on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-01-02 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-14 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Technology – Internet" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?", "id": "M6100", "background": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44. The numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories: Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019 Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019 Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website (here's 2019, probably gated) and at Wikipedia.", "publish_time": "2021-01-14 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 15:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Politics" ], "choices": { "max": 10, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?", "id": "M6101", "background": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\" The 4 categories are: Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019 Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019 Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021? This prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website (here's 2019, probably gated) and at Wikipedia.", "publish_time": "2021-02-15 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 15:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Politics" ], "choices": { "max": 40, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", "id": "M6107", "background": "[Inspired by the previous question for 1st Jan 2021] In March 2020, Oxford philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include Nate Silver, Max Roser, Tom Chivers, Scott Alexander, and Cate Blanchett. A paperback edition will be published in March 2021 in the US. As of January 1st 2021 the book has 235 ratings on Amazon. You can view historical data in this spreadsheet. How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? Resolves according to ratings on Amazon.com at resolution time. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-07 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment – Books", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 1000, "min": 235, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?", "id": "M6114", "background": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here). However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on this .gov page of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.", "publish_time": "2021-01-05 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Law" ], "choices": { "max": 150, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "id": "M6129", "background": "Background According to the Federal Reserve, the number of manufacturing jobs remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. If labor continues to remain cheaper overseas, the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the workforce for this industry, and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their chart on all manufacturing employees in the US.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 22:07:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 13000, "min": 11000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil stay below $70 in 2021?", "id": "M6145", "background": "Background The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts report that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil in January 2020, that number dropped to below $10 in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021? Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ 10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices. Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Energy and Climate Series", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "id": "M6145", "background": "Background The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts report that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil in January 2020, that number dropped to below $10 in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021? Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ 10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices. Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Energy and Climate Series", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine not receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?", "id": "M6158", "background": "There is theoretical and observational data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with strong Sigma1R activation, which may also be relevant. A recent small preregistered RCT of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published observational report. A larger trial is underway by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available here and here from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found here. This question asks: Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic? This question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid. In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-09 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?", "id": "M6158", "background": "There is theoretical and observational data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with strong Sigma1R activation, which may also be relevant. A recent small preregistered RCT of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published observational report. A larger trial is underway by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available here and here from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found here. This question asks: Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic? This question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid. In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-09 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", "id": "M6170", "background": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.", "publish_time": "2021-01-13 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-10-01", "min": "2021-03-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the UK not have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "id": "M6202", "background": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A previous question on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-10 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Politics – European", "Biology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "id": "M6202", "background": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A previous question on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-10 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Politics – European", "Biology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", "id": "M6241", "background": "This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. According to the CDC, there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on this page. If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-01-14 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-29 21:39:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-12-28", "min": "2021-01-12", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will any of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6291", "background": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article, where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. Here are some articles describing these issues: Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating” Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes? Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify. This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime. For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following: Donald Trump Donald Trump Jr. Eric Trump Ivanka Trump Tiffany Trump Melania Trump Barron Trump Jared Kushner", "publish_time": "2021-01-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6291", "background": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article, where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. Here are some articles describing these issues: Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating” Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes? Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify. This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime. For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following: Donald Trump Donald Trump Jr. Eric Trump Ivanka Trump Tiffany Trump Melania Trump Barron Trump Jared Kushner", "publish_time": "2021-01-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", "id": "M6292", "background": "Plant-based meat is a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat. Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for several reasons, including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming. The US market size of plant-based meat increased steadily from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019. This question asks: How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to The Good Food Institute's market research report. If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-10 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biological Sciences — Food Science", "Series – Future Perfect 2021" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": -50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will US poverty be lower in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "id": "M6295", "background": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article. The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described here is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used: Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" Sample: \"All Individuals\" The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively. If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "id": "M6295", "background": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article. The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described here is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used: Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" Sample: \"All Individuals\" The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively. If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US unemployment rate drop below 5% through November 2021?", "id": "M6296", "background": "In 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed here. Related Questions Unemployment in the US in 2021 Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021 Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "id": "M6296", "background": "In 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed here. Related Questions Unemployment in the US in 2021 Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021 Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices not decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "id": "M6307", "background": "During the COVID-19 pandemic there was an concerted shift to work from home. Google, Facebook and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some high profile tech executives and companies moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been growing faster than the rest of the country. Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? This question resolves based on the YoY change in Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm", "publish_time": "2021-01-25 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "id": "M6307", "background": "During the COVID-19 pandemic there was an concerted shift to work from home. Google, Facebook and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some high profile tech executives and companies moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been growing faster than the rest of the country. Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? This question resolves based on the YoY change in Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm", "publish_time": "2021-01-25 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?", "id": "M6308", "background": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has increased over the past 3 years. However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic might affect the epidemiology of STIs. How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent? The question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables This question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs. If this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-01-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 09:06:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 40, "min": -40, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will India's GDP not grow in the first three quarters of 2021?", "id": "M6316", "background": "India is a middle-income country ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP. Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S, which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-01-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?", "id": "M6316", "background": "India is a middle-income country ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP. Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S, which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-01-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "id": "M6318", "background": "According to earthquaketrack.com the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D. The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed. The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland. Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea. Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track", "publish_time": "2021-02-21 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-12 05:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Physical Sciences – Earth Science" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "id": "M6318", "background": "According to earthquaketrack.com the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D. The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed. The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland. Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea. Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track", "publish_time": "2021-02-21 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-12 05:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Physical Sciences – Earth Science" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?", "id": "M6323", "background": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching CommonPass, an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of \"immunoprivilege\"; professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal fears a new class divide, but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-31 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Industry – Transportation", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": 3000000000, "min": 30000000, "deriv_ratio": 100 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election not be from the CDU/CSU union?", "id": "M6338", "background": "CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. --CDU, wikipedia CDU currently forms a coalition government with CSU (Christian Social Union), and SPD (Social Democratic Party). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. As of the moment of writing this question, the CDU/CSU union steadily leads in election polls. In Vox's Future Perfect series, Dylan Matthews forecasted an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.", "publish_time": "2021-01-25 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-25 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?", "id": "M6338", "background": "CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. --CDU, wikipedia CDU currently forms a coalition government with CSU (Christian Social Union), and SPD (Social Democratic Party). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. As of the moment of writing this question, the CDU/CSU union steadily leads in election polls. In Vox's Future Perfect series, Dylan Matthews forecasted an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.", "publish_time": "2021-01-25 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-25 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EA Global London 2021 not be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "id": "M6348", "background": "Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see the Metaculus question). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see the Metaculus question). Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-19 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "id": "M6348", "background": "Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see the Metaculus question). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see the Metaculus question). Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021). This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-22 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-19 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", "id": "M6361", "background": "Emojis, eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. Each year, Eric Goldman publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. How many emoji related court cases in 2021? Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his caselaw tally is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.", "publish_time": "2021-02-17 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Internet", "Law" ], "choices": { "max": 200, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the University of California Berkeley not be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "id": "M6367", "background": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has announced that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley course catalog currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\". The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "id": "M6367", "background": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has announced that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley course catalog currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\". The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US not rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", "id": "M6381", "background": "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration officially withdrew from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\" Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-27 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", "id": "M6381", "background": "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration officially withdrew from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\" Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-01-27 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "id": "M6384", "background": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. On a chart of IMDb ratings you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was Barthood in 2015. Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like Wayback Machine or Archive.Today. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-02 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 09:19:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment – Television Shows" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "id": "M6384", "background": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. On a chart of IMDb ratings you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was Barthood in 2015. Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like Wayback Machine or Archive.Today. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-02 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 09:19:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment – Television Shows" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "id": "M6415", "background": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia has closed its borders to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements. Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine). Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-03 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-26 04:43:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2024-01-01", "min": "2021-02-15", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) not be expelled or resign by 2022?", "id": "M6419", "background": "Marjorie Taylor Greene is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including Pizzagate, QAnon, false flag shootings as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, 9/11 conspiracy theories, and \"Frazzledrip\" (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook. Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. Five members of congress have been expelled in the past and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "id": "M6419", "background": "Marjorie Taylor Greene is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including Pizzagate, QAnon, false flag shootings as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, 9/11 conspiracy theories, and \"Frazzledrip\" (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook. Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. Five members of congress have been expelled in the past and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise.", "publish_time": "2021-01-29 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Silvio Berlusconi not be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "id": "M6429", "background": "The President of the Italian Republic is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices. The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on January 26. Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could lend its support to a new coalition government, or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election? This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise. If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.", "publish_time": "2021-03-03 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "id": "M6429", "background": "The President of the Italian Republic is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices. The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on January 26. Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could lend its support to a new coalition government, or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election? This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise. If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.", "publish_time": "2021-03-03 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-30 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "id": "M6432", "background": "Context Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the United States here. The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the Q1 growth rate for 2021 will be 4.67. What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? Resolution Criteria This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.", "publish_time": "2021-02-13 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 22:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": -35, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?", "id": "M6436", "background": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. This is based on statistics published annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the SIPRI website. If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-02-04 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": { "max": 2500, "min": 1500, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will no Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "id": "M6444", "background": "Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy; its bicameral legislature, the Federal Parliament, holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time, with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. According to Section 13 of the Constitution, elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The Australian Parliament House Library website provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022. Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-03 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "id": "M6444", "background": "Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy; its bicameral legislature, the Federal Parliament, holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time, with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. According to Section 13 of the Constitution, elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The Australian Parliament House Library website provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022. Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-03 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will less than 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "id": "M6447", "background": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party censured Flake, Ducey and McCain; the South Carolina Republican party censured Rice. Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress (117th; 2021-2022)? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.", "publish_time": "2021-02-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "id": "M6447", "background": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party censured Flake, Ducey and McCain; the South Carolina Republican party censured Rice. Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress (117th; 2021-2022)? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.", "publish_time": "2021-02-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021 will the European Commission not suspend all EU mink farming (including breeding), and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "id": "M6458", "background": "In early November 2020, a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming. This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry\". As of December 2020, the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms no later than 2025. The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by March 2021. The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary measure.In 2019, the previous Irish government pledged to deliver a bill banning fur farming. Hungary also announced a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently). In Germany, fur farming will be phased out in 2022 due to stricter welfare requirements. In January 2021, the Swedish government announced that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic Fur farming has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia. In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament raised the issue of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, questioned whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober called for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons. In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the EC Press corner, or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Welfare Series", "Legislative efforts and industry standards" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "id": "M6458", "background": "In early November 2020, a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming. This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry\". As of December 2020, the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms no later than 2025. The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by March 2021. The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary measure.In 2019, the previous Irish government pledged to deliver a bill banning fur farming. Hungary also announced a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently). In Germany, fur farming will be phased out in 2022 due to stricter welfare requirements. In January 2021, the Swedish government announced that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic Fur farming has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia. In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament raised the issue of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, questioned whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober called for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons. In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the EC Press corner, or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Animal Welfare Series", "Legislative efforts and industry standards" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament approve the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "id": "M6459", "background": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle in 2019. The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs. Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required. The deal has been denounced by European beef farmers, environmental activists, animal welfare advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also criticised the agreement. In October 2020 both the European Parliament and the European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands. Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "id": "M6459", "background": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle in 2019. The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs. Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required. The deal has been denounced by European beef farmers, environmental activists, animal welfare advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also criticised the agreement. In October 2020 both the European Parliament and the European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands. Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.", "publish_time": "2021-02-12 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will this question not be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "id": "M6554", "background": "Following his public re-entry to the web, blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls \"Metaculus Monday\". He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the near future of COVID-19, and longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps a future post will mention this question! Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021? This question resolves positively if either: the title or question text of this question is mentioned the URL of this question is included ...in the text of an Astral Codex Ten post. A substack comment will not suffice for a positive resolution, even if that comment is authored by Scott Alexander. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-02 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "id": "M6554", "background": "Following his public re-entry to the web, blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls \"Metaculus Monday\". He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the near future of COVID-19, and longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps a future post will mention this question! Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021? This question resolves positively if either: the title or question text of this question is mentioned the URL of this question is included ...in the text of an Astral Codex Ten post. A substack comment will not suffice for a positive resolution, even if that comment is authored by Scott Alexander. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-02 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be fewer than 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "id": "M6557", "background": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo. The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people. As of February 12 2021, two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection in the latest outbreak. Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "id": "M6557", "background": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo. The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people. As of February 12 2021, two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection in the latest outbreak. Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", "id": "M6589", "background": "PHOSP is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states: The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-17 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a lower approval than disapproval rating?", "id": "M6635", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls, the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? This question resolves positive if FiveThirtyEight’s average of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?", "id": "M6635", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls, the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? This question resolves positive if FiveThirtyEight’s average of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency be below 50.0%?", "id": "M6636", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls, the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", "id": "M6636", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls, the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 not set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", "id": "M6637", "background": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28 that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century. Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to BEA data. Historical data may further be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", "id": "M6637", "background": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28 that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century. Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to BEA data. Historical data may further be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", "id": "M6638", "background": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to BLS data, which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to BLS data.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": { "max": 7, "min": 2.8, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers not win the 2021 NBA championship?", "id": "M6639", "background": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", "id": "M6639", "background": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Joe Biden not hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6640", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at Slow Boring predicted on December 28th that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6640", "background": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at Slow Boring predicted on December 28th that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will no vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", "id": "M6641", "background": "The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", "id": "M6641", "background": "The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union remain below that for the United States in 2021?", "id": "M6642", "background": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 Our World in Data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? This resolves positively if data from Our World in Data indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "id": "M6642", "background": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 Our World in Data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? This resolves positively if data from Our World in Data indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Apple deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "id": "M6644", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on apple.com. The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring", "Business", "Computing – Computers" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "id": "M6644", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on apple.com. The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring", "Business", "Computing – Computers" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia not establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?", "id": "M6646", "background": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident). Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?", "id": "M6646", "background": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident). Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-02-19 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series — Slow Boring" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Tether not collapse by the end of 2021?", "id": "M6656", "background": "Tether is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the Kraken exchange. This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. (The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "id": "M6656", "background": "Tether is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the Kraken exchange. This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. (The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-24 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States House of Representatives not expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "id": "M6659", "background": "Related question: Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? The United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can expel, censure, or reprimand any of its own members if Members vote to do so. Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is suing others. One Member lost her Committee privileges. Others have been censured by political organizations outside of Congress. Ethics complaints have been drawn up by citizens' groups. Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided. Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date. The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-07 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S. – congressional" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "id": "M6659", "background": "Related question: Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? The United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can expel, censure, or reprimand any of its own members if Members vote to do so. Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is suing others. One Member lost her Committee privileges. Others have been censured by political organizations outside of Congress. Ethics complaints have been drawn up by citizens' groups. Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided. Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date. The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-26 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-07 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Elections – U.S. – congressional" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?", "id": "M6666", "background": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021? Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021? We will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-02-28 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies" ], "choices": { "max": 5800000, "min": 58399, "deriv_ratio": 99.31676912275896 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", "id": "M6674", "background": "One dose vaccines also count. How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? Judged according to ourworldindata.org.", "publish_time": "2021-02-25 22:59:55+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 1000000000, "min": 1000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", "id": "M6675", "background": "One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? Judged according to ourworldindata.org.", "publish_time": "2021-02-25 22:59:53+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-29 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 1000000000, "min": 1000000, "deriv_ratio": 1000 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", "id": "M6677", "background": "One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? Judged according to ourworldindata.org.", "publish_time": "2021-02-25 22:59:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 200000000, "min": 1000000, "deriv_ratio": 200 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Stripe not be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "id": "M6688", "background": "Background Stripe, a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would become the most valuable company to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? Resolution This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.", "publish_time": "2021-03-10 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 18:36:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business – startup companies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "id": "M6688", "background": "Background Stripe, a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would become the most valuable company to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? Resolution This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.", "publish_time": "2021-03-10 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 18:36:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business – startup companies" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew Cuomo not be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "id": "M6693", "background": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? New York has had 8 out of 56 governors resign (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his prostitution scandal. On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a front-page story on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal. As of February 27, 2021, prominent calls for Cuomo's resignation within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-02 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "id": "M6693", "background": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? New York has had 8 out of 56 governors resign (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his prostitution scandal. On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a front-page story on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal. As of February 27, 2021, prominent calls for Cuomo's resignation within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-02 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be lower in 2021 than in 2020?", "id": "M6700", "background": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's 2020 emissions gap report finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges will not reduce emissions quickly enough to keep warming below 2C. Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). Kelsey Piper gave a 90% prediction in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-10 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", "id": "M6700", "background": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's 2020 emissions gap report finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges will not reduce emissions quickly enough to keep warming below 2C. Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). Kelsey Piper gave a 90% prediction in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-10 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults not be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "id": "M6709", "background": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is \"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\" There are approximately 255 million adults in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February and Merck announced on 2 March that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the third vaccine to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation data provided by the CDC and HHS. Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: 1: total Pfizer second dose allocations (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March) 2: total Moderna second dose allocations (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March) 3: total Johnson & Johnson allocations (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March) So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-03-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "id": "M6709", "background": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is \"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\" There are approximately 255 million adults in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February and Merck announced on 2 March that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the third vaccine to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation data provided by the CDC and HHS. Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: 1: total Pfizer second dose allocations (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March) 2: total Moderna second dose allocations (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March) 3: total Johnson & Johnson allocations (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March) So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.", "publish_time": "2021-03-04 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Marine Le Pen lose the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "M6763", "background": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party. In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. More information, including recent polls, is available on Wikipedia. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-03-06 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "M6763", "background": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party. In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. More information, including recent polls, is available on Wikipedia. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-03-06 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell fewer units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", "id": "M6776", "background": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 far outsold other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales. With the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch. In January 2021, the Switch continued to sell more units, however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by supply chain issues which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch. While the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds 4 of the top 6 spots historically for total units sold. Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? Results published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch found here and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found on page 9 of this PDF. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-05 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-20 20:54:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Gaming" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", "id": "M6776", "background": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 far outsold other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales. With the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch. In January 2021, the Switch continued to sell more units, however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by supply chain issues which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch. While the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds 4 of the top 6 spots historically for total units sold. Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? Results published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch found here and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found on page 9 of this PDF. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-05 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-20 20:54:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Gaming" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "id": "M6779", "background": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to OurWorldInData. With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to OurWorldInData.", "publish_time": "2021-03-04 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-28 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-12-31", "min": "2021-04-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will no member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "id": "M6781", "background": "After the storming of the U.S. Capitol, there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of \"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives. The FBI has been examining Members' telephone records, in what another Democratic party Representative says is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-09 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Social issues – Crime and Violence", "Elections – U.S. – congressional", "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "id": "M6781", "background": "After the storming of the U.S. Capitol, there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of \"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives. The FBI has been examining Members' telephone records, in what another Democratic party Representative says is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-09 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Social issues – Crime and Violence", "Elections – U.S. – congressional", "Elections – U.S. – President" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts not go into effect?", "id": "M6782", "background": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before Roe v. Wade was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability. 12 states have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. 22 states have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately. Kelsey Piper of Vox predicted this has a 40% of happening: The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans. [...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws. I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect? This question will resolve positively if any of 19 state-level abortion bans become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.", "publish_time": "2021-03-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Social issues" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", "id": "M6782", "background": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before Roe v. Wade was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability. 12 states have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. 22 states have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately. Kelsey Piper of Vox predicted this has a 40% of happening: The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans. [...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws. I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect? This question will resolve positively if any of 19 state-level abortion bans become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.", "publish_time": "2021-03-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Social issues" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home remain abnormal in the US in 2021?", "id": "M6790", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%, and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. A question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" News of vaccinations administered is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague. In Vox's Future Perfect, Kelsey Piper predicts: Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at this page of government statistics to see if I got this one right. Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask: Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that 6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) (the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)", "publish_time": "2021-03-08 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-20 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", "id": "M6790", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%, and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. A question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" News of vaccinations administered is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague. In Vox's Future Perfect, Kelsey Piper predicts: Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at this page of government statistics to see if I got this one right. Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask: Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that 6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) (the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)", "publish_time": "2021-03-08 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-20 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6792", "background": "The Civil War in Yemen is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other attempts at opening negotiations with Iran, it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a 60% of occurring this year: The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including actual special forces troops on the ground). Bipartisan pressure from Congress to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure. The Biden campaign in fact promised to end support for the Saudis in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — signed an open letter urging the same. Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).", "publish_time": "2021-03-10 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-16 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?", "id": "M6792", "background": "The Civil War in Yemen is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other attempts at opening negotiations with Iran, it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a 60% of occurring this year: The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including actual special forces troops on the ground). Bipartisan pressure from Congress to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure. The Biden campaign in fact promised to end support for the Saudis in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — signed an open letter urging the same. Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).", "publish_time": "2021-03-10 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-16 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will neither the Duke nor Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "id": "M6801", "background": "Prince Henry of Wales and Rachel Meghan Markle are members of the British royal family and the current Duke and Duchess of Sussex. They were married in 2018. Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? This question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "id": "M6801", "background": "Prince Henry of Wales and Rachel Meghan Markle are members of the British royal family and the current Duke and Duchess of Sussex. They were married in 2018. Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? This question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.", "publish_time": "2021-07-23 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", "id": "M6807", "background": "Background Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Peaking previously on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021? Resolution Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-03-22 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-17 18:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", "id": "M6809", "background": "Background Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021? Resolution Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-03-22 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-26 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Taylor Swift not release a new album in 2021?", "id": "M6837", "background": "Taylor Swift released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020. The timeline of previous albums: Lover (2019) Reputation (2017) 1989 (2014) Red (2012) Speak Now (2010) Fearless (2008) Taylor Swift (2006) Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? An EP doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record. If Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.", "publish_time": "2021-04-01 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment Industry" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "id": "M6837", "background": "Taylor Swift released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020. The timeline of previous albums: Lover (2019) Reputation (2017) 1989 (2014) Red (2012) Speak Now (2010) Fearless (2008) Taylor Swift (2006) Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? An EP doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record. If Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.", "publish_time": "2021-04-01 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment Industry" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will 3 or fewer Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", "id": "M6844", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041? When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? Universal Basic Income is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a technological unemployment crisis, or could reform existing social welfare systems. Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good. UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. The State of Alaska provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by GiveDirectly. In Vox's Future Perfect, Sigal Samuel predicts: At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) [...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered. Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021? This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-17 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", "id": "M6844", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041? When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? Universal Basic Income is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a technological unemployment crisis, or could reform existing social welfare systems. Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good. UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. The State of Alaska provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by GiveDirectly. In Vox's Future Perfect, Sigal Samuel predicts: At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) [...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered. Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021? This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-03-17 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Economy" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"medium\"?", "id": "M6845", "background": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which seems to elude some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. Their tracker for New York City assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\" This question serves as a companion question to \"NYC 'low risk' date for COVID\" On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"medium\"? The question resolves with the first date that reads as \"medium risk\" on the New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker. Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"medium risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"medium.\" Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-06-08 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-19 11:58:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2023-12-31", "min": "2021-03-14", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Supreme Court not grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", "id": "M6853", "background": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In Rostker v. Goldberg (1981), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles were opened to female soldiers. NCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, which in an opinion stated: \"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\" NCFM filed an appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021 requesting their case be heard. Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via SCOTUSblog, reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case. Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.", "publish_time": "2021-03-17 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-02 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", "id": "M6853", "background": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In Rostker v. Goldberg (1981), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles were opened to female soldiers. NCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, which in an opinion stated: \"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\" NCFM filed an appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021 requesting their case be heard. Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via SCOTUSblog, reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case. Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.", "publish_time": "2021-03-17 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-02 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", "id": "M6855", "background": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live The company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media: Launch Date - r/Kalshi Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter When will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading? The question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-01 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-15 19:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business – startup companies", "Finance – markets" ], "choices": { "max": "2023-03-29", "min": "2021-03-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will San Francisco not issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "id": "M6858", "background": "Related questions on Metaculus: Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to vaccine hesitancy), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters. San Francisco had previously issued an order restricting indoor dining in November of 2020. Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.", "publish_time": "2021-03-23 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-09 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "id": "M6858", "background": "Related questions on Metaculus: Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to vaccine hesitancy), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters. San Francisco had previously issued an order restricting indoor dining in November of 2020. Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.", "publish_time": "2021-03-23 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-09 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?", "id": "M6874", "background": "Context Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. January 14th 2021 saw a larger than expected increase in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the pandemic worsens across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Related questions: Initial Jobless Claims March 2021 Initial Jobless Claims April 2021 What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021? Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the Federal Reserve, or through the reports organized on Econoday’s calendar. This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.", "publish_time": "2021-03-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-26 22:24:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 1000000, "min": 600000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?", "id": "M6877", "background": "Context The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. Other Related Questions: CPI-U March 2021 CPI-U April 2021 What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021? Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Investing.com MQL5 Markets Insider Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on Econoday through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.", "publish_time": "2021-03-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-06 22:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 1.5, "min": -1.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", "id": "M6878", "background": "Context The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy, and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. Because of this, we can observe trends in changes of consumer prices. As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. Other Related Questions: EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021 EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021 What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021? Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids. This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.", "publish_time": "2021-03-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-22 22:55:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 1500000, "min": 1000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", "id": "M6879", "background": "Context Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see historical data for this figure here. Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020. The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at 6.7% by the end of December. And, by late January, over 400,000 Americans had lost their lives. With the vaccines currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates. Similar Questions: March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Markets Insider MQL5 Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics Resolution Criteria Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.", "publish_time": "2021-03-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-31 23:04:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?", "id": "M6880", "background": "Background Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. Previous Questions: Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021 What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021? Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing Investing.com Trading Economics Resolution Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-03-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-19 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?", "id": "M6882", "background": "Background Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Peaking previously on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. Previous Questions: US Building Permits April 2021 What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021? Resolution Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of May. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-04-14 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-06 18:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries not boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M6898", "background": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event. Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? For the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand. The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed. The question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott. The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously. For this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.", "publish_time": "2021-04-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Geopolitics", "Sports – Competitive Games" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M6898", "background": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event. Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? For the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand. The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed. The question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott. The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously. For this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.", "publish_time": "2021-04-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Geopolitics", "Sports – Competitive Games" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?", "id": "M6919", "background": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes. How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US? This question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the NOAA website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their methodology.", "publish_time": "2021-03-31 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 19:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Physical Sciences – Earth Science", "Environment – Climate", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 1000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Israel not hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", "id": "M6920", "background": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock? Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? This question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-05 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", "id": "M6920", "background": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock? Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? This question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-05 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", "id": "M6928", "background": "Per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries.\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. Thanks to the Australian Government's Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy, the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is available for download. What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021? An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available here, with the specific series to which this question refers contained in column N. Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021. The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-04-02 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?", "id": "M6929", "background": "Per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries.\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. Thanks to the Australian Government's Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy, the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is available for download. What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021? An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available here, with the specific series to which this question refers contained in column N. Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021. The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-05-10 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?", "id": "M6932", "background": "Per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries.\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. Thanks to the Australian Government's Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy, the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is available for download. What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021? An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available here, with the specific series to which this question refers contained in column O. Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021. The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-03-29 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?", "id": "M6933", "background": "Per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Wage Price Index (WPI), measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics. The WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries.\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. Thanks to the Australian Government's Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy, the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change. The ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is available for download. What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021? An unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available here, with the specific series to which this question refers contained in column O. Resolution Criteria This question resolves according to the relevant Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021. The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'. If data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-05-10 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will there not be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", "id": "M6959", "background": "American and European media and political institutions are drawing attention to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from Ukrainian, Russian, and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/military watcher circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent exchanges of artillery fire. Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? Resolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-07 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 13:21:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", "id": "M6959", "background": "American and European media and political institutions are drawing attention to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from Ukrainian, Russian, and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/military watcher circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent exchanges of artillery fire. Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? Resolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-07 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 13:21:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will vaccinated American citizens not be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "id": "M6970", "background": "As of the creation of this question, the US-Canada border remains closed, with Canada allowing foreign nationals to enter for non-essential travels only in very rare circumstances. Will this be significantly revised by June to criteria that any vaccinated American passport-holder could pass? Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021? The question will resolve positively if entrance criteria for American passport holders is no different than what is was in January 2020, with one exception: additional requirement of proof of vaccination. This will be determined by available information on the Canadian government's website, canada.ca.", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-15 05:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "id": "M6970", "background": "As of the creation of this question, the US-Canada border remains closed, with Canada allowing foreign nationals to enter for non-essential travels only in very rare circumstances. Will this be significantly revised by June to criteria that any vaccinated American passport-holder could pass? Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021? The question will resolve positively if entrance criteria for American passport holders is no different than what is was in January 2020, with one exception: additional requirement of proof of vaccination. This will be determined by available information on the Canadian government's website, canada.ca.", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-15 05:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "id": "M6981", "background": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off nearly 90% of the region's fresh water. Given the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet this situation seems intolarable for Russia. Recently Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a credible threat to the Ukrainian territory. Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022? This question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their official constitution (English source), specifically, under 'Chapter 3, Federated device' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3).", "publish_time": "2021-04-17 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "id": "M6981", "background": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off nearly 90% of the region's fresh water. Given the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet this situation seems intolarable for Russia. Recently Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a credible threat to the Ukrainian territory. Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022? This question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their official constitution (English source), specifically, under 'Chapter 3, Federated device' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3).", "publish_time": "2021-04-17 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will United States military troops not be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?", "id": "M7017", "background": "Related question by @Fee, with many background facts: Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01 In the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as mujahedeen, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was Al Qaeda. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he & al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left. On September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and Somerset County, Pennsylvania, as well as large-scale property damage in those locales. Soon after that, on October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan. Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence. On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's \"Seal Team Six\" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden. U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.. Following various \"troop drawdowns\", the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but President Biden decided that some troops would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S.. Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable & unforeseeable. This question asks: Will U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? Statements issued by civilian leaders of the U.S. military, or by any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any source familiar with the territory. Resolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, \"blue hats\", or any Private military contractors or \"PMCs\". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted. 2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-11 12:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?", "id": "M7017", "background": "Related question by @Fee, with many background facts: Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01 In the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as mujahedeen, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was Al Qaeda. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he & al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left. On September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and Somerset County, Pennsylvania, as well as large-scale property damage in those locales. Soon after that, on October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan. Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence. On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's \"Seal Team Six\" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden. U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.. Following various \"troop drawdowns\", the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but President Biden decided that some troops would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S.. Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable & unforeseeable. This question asks: Will U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? Statements issued by civilian leaders of the U.S. military, or by any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any source familiar with the territory. Resolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, \"blue hats\", or any Private military contractors or \"PMCs\". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted. 2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-11 12:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "World over 1 million COVID daily cases", "id": "M7019", "background": "The daily global covid case seven day moving average is over 800,000. Will the world pass 1 million daily cases for the seven-day moving average? Predict the date that this could happen. Resolution is via Worldometers tracks the global daily covid cases. When will the world surpass 1 million COVID cases per day for the seven day moving average If it does not happen by Dec 31, 2021 then this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-05-02 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-19 18:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-12-30", "min": "2021-04-22", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Pentagon report on UAPs not dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?", "id": "M7069", "background": "From Inverse, In December 2020, the government enacted the Intelligence Authorization Act, which called for the release of an unclassified and all-sources report on unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP) — the official military term used for unidentified flying objects. The act was included in the mammoth appropriations bill that also included financial aid checks for people living with the economic fallout from Covid-19. The report will include a thorough analysis of Available data Intelligence reporting on UAPs It will be presented to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on UAPs. [...] The Pentagon report is set to be released on June 1. Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations? The Pentagon report on UAPs is said to \"dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations\" if the report states in some concluding section, or executive summary, that it finds either of the following explanations \"unlikely\", \"improbable\", \"untenable\", or some other synonym of those words, That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question were at least partly created or deployed in secret by some society or body of people, including an organization of some government. That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question come at least partly from some source other than human civilization. This question also resolves positively if the report concludes that non-secretive explanations, such as optical illusions, are supported in all cases examined. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 01:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Aviation", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?", "id": "M7069", "background": "From Inverse, In December 2020, the government enacted the Intelligence Authorization Act, which called for the release of an unclassified and all-sources report on unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP) — the official military term used for unidentified flying objects. The act was included in the mammoth appropriations bill that also included financial aid checks for people living with the economic fallout from Covid-19. The report will include a thorough analysis of Available data Intelligence reporting on UAPs It will be presented to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on UAPs. [...] The Pentagon report is set to be released on June 1. Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations? The Pentagon report on UAPs is said to \"dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations\" if the report states in some concluding section, or executive summary, that it finds either of the following explanations \"unlikely\", \"improbable\", \"untenable\", or some other synonym of those words, That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question were at least partly created or deployed in secret by some society or body of people, including an organization of some government. That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question come at least partly from some source other than human civilization. This question also resolves positively if the report concludes that non-secretive explanations, such as optical illusions, are supported in all cases examined. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-04-21 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 01:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Aviation", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will GB rowing men's team not win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?", "id": "M7073", "background": "Along with cycling, British Rowing has been one of Team GB's most successful sports at the Olympics. The men's sweep[1] team have won gold at every Olympics since 1984, including GB's only gold in 1996 and winning the coxless four at every Olympics since 2000. However, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021. Jürgen Gröbler the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years The GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning no gold medals and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period. Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020? Resolves positive if Great Britain win a gold medal in the 2-, 4- or 8+ at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Resolves negatively if they do not and all three events take place in 2021. Otherwise resolves ambiguously. [1] Sweep rowing is a subset of rowing where the athletes each row with one oar. (As opposed to sculling, where each athlete carries two oars).", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-17 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?", "id": "M7073", "background": "Along with cycling, British Rowing has been one of Team GB's most successful sports at the Olympics. The men's sweep[1] team have won gold at every Olympics since 1984, including GB's only gold in 1996 and winning the coxless four at every Olympics since 2000. However, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021. Jürgen Gröbler the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years The GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning no gold medals and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period. Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020? Resolves positive if Great Britain win a gold medal in the 2-, 4- or 8+ at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Resolves negatively if they do not and all three events take place in 2021. Otherwise resolves ambiguously. [1] Sweep rowing is a subset of rowing where the athletes each row with one oar. (As opposed to sculling, where each athlete carries two oars).", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-17 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?", "id": "M7078", "background": "The Apple M1 processor is currently used in multiple Apple models, and they have indicated that they will continue developing additional generations. When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? For the purposes of this question, \"second generation\" means an architecture change, not simply an addition of cores. The question will resolve when the announcement is made, likely during one of Apple's keynotes.", "publish_time": "2021-05-08 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-27 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computing – Computers" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-12-30", "min": "2021-04-19", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship not launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "id": "M7096", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently called for co-founders to create a charity fortifying feed hens. Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program? Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here. Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities", "publish_time": "2021-05-15 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-05 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues – Charities", "Industry — Agriculture — Livestock", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "id": "M7096", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently called for co-founders to create a charity fortifying feed hens. Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program? Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here. Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities", "publish_time": "2021-05-15 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-05 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues – Charities", "Industry — Agriculture — Livestock", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship not launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "id": "M7097", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently called for co-founders to create a family planning charity. Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program? Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities, as decided by Metaculus admins/moderators. Examples of \"family planning\" related activities might be\": supporting mothers during pregnancy or childbirth, giving information about the pros and cons of having a child, sex-education, access to contraceptives, etc. Per Charity Entrepeneurship's post, such a charity would most-likely focus on access to contraceptives after childbirth.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-05 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues – Charities", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "id": "M7097", "background": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently called for co-founders to create a family planning charity. Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program? Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities, as decided by Metaculus admins/moderators. Examples of \"family planning\" related activities might be\": supporting mothers during pregnancy or childbirth, giving information about the pros and cons of having a child, sex-education, access to contraceptives, etc. Per Charity Entrepeneurship's post, such a charity would most-likely focus on access to contraceptives after childbirth.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-05 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues – Charities", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen not retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "id": "M7106", "background": "Magnus Carlsen is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the #1 ranking spot since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated Fabiano Caruana in tie-breaks after 12 draws. Ian Nepomniachtchi won the right to play Carlsen by winning the 2020-21 Candidates Tournament. Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young). The expected format is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place. Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? This question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.", "publish_time": "2021-04-28 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-23 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "id": "M7106", "background": "Magnus Carlsen is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the #1 ranking spot since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated Fabiano Caruana in tie-breaks after 12 draws. Ian Nepomniachtchi won the right to play Carlsen by winning the 2020-21 Candidates Tournament. Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young). The expected format is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place. Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? This question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.", "publish_time": "2021-04-28 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-23 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", "id": "M7108", "background": "The border between Canada and the United States of America closed March 21st, 2020 for non-essential travel because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The border closure has since been extended several times, and it is currently unclear when the border will re-open. This is an update of this question. When will the US-Canada border reopen? This question resolves positively if the governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel in both directions. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-12 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-29", "min": "2021-04-21", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a Tesla car not demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7113", "background": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk tweeted: \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\" Tesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call Full Self-Driving Capability, which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet. However, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to Business Insider, in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\" Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? For the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the \"self driving level 5\", as defined by the SAE International: \"the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required.\" We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver. Elon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with \"self driving level 5\" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following: The New York Times; The Economist; Financial Times; The Wall Street Journal ; The Atlantic; The Washington Post. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Transportation Industry – Automotive" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7113", "background": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk tweeted: \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\" Tesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call Full Self-Driving Capability, which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet. However, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to Business Insider, in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\" Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? For the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the \"self driving level 5\", as defined by the SAE International: \"the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required.\" We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver. Elon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with \"self driving level 5\" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following: The New York Times; The Economist; Financial Times; The Wall Street Journal ; The Atlantic; The Washington Post. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Transportation Industry – Automotive" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Gavin Newsom lose the 2021 California recall election?", "id": "M7115", "background": "After successfully collecting more than 1.5mm signatures Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in 2021. This question asks: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election? The question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. It does not matter when the election takes place. If a recall election does not take place before the 2022 gubernatorial election then this resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple recall elections prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election, only the first one counts.", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-13 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?", "id": "M7115", "background": "After successfully collecting more than 1.5mm signatures Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in 2021. This question asks: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election? The question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. It does not matter when the election takes place. If a recall election does not take place before the 2022 gubernatorial election then this resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple recall elections prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election, only the first one counts.", "publish_time": "2021-04-30 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-13 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?", "id": "M7116", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. As of 27 April, 43.2% of Virginia's total population of 8.5M has been vaccinated with at least one dose. What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure displayed on 1 August 2021 on the VDH COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?", "id": "M7117", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. As of 27 April, 43.2% of Virginia's total population of 8.5M has been vaccinated with at least one dose. When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%? This question resolves on the basis of the date when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure displayed on the VDH COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard reaches 75%. If this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as > 31 July 2023. This question retroactively closes to when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure reaches 70%.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": "2023-07-31", "min": "2021-04-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will no SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?", "id": "M7119", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. There are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer requested an amendment to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. In March 2021, Pfizer announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years, with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age. In early April 2021, Janssen announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group. Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021? This question resolves on the basis of a press announcement by the FDA stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?", "id": "M7119", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. There are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer requested an amendment to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. In March 2021, Pfizer announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years, with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age. In early April 2021, Janssen announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group. Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021? This question resolves on the basis of a press announcement by the FDA stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?", "id": "M7120", "background": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia has prioritized health equity in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome. The Virginia Department of Health reports COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group. What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021? The question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog or dashboard. If the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as > 2.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?", "id": "M7121", "background": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia has prioritized health equity in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome. The Virginia Department of Health reports COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Hispanic group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Hispanic group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group. What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021? The question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog or dashboard. If the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as > 2.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?", "id": "M7122", "background": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia has prioritized health equity in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome. The Virginia Department of Health reports COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group. What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021? The question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog or dashboard. If the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as > 2.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will medical practices not overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?", "id": "M7123", "background": "Virginian hospitals, local health departments, medical practices, pharmacies, and other community health providers have all been important facilities for administering COVID-19 vaccines. Medical practices are making up an increasing proportion of total vaccines administered. Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021? This resolves on the basis of whether \"medical practices\" have administered a greater total of COVID-19 doses than \"pharmacies\" as of 1 July 2021 according COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Received and Administered dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?", "id": "M7123", "background": "Virginian hospitals, local health departments, medical practices, pharmacies, and other community health providers have all been important facilities for administering COVID-19 vaccines. Medical practices are making up an increasing proportion of total vaccines administered. Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021? This resolves on the basis of whether \"medical practices\" have administered a greater total of COVID-19 doses than \"pharmacies\" as of 1 July 2021 according COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Received and Administered dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?", "id": "M7124", "background": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported. In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases? Please note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11: May 2021: 1 June 2021: 2 July 2021: 3 August 2021: 4 September 2021: 5 October 2021: 6 November 2021: 7 December 2021: 8 January 2022: 9 February 2022: 10 March 2022: 11 This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 case data provided by VDH.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 11, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?", "id": "M7125", "background": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 3,230 new confirmed+probable hospitalizations were reported. In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations? Please note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11: May 2021: 1 June 2021: 2 July 2021: 3 August 2021: 4 September 2021: 5 October 2021: 6 November 2021: 7 December 2021: 8 January 2022: 9 February 2022: 10 March 2022: 11 This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 hospitalization data provided by VDH.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 11, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?", "id": "M7126", "background": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 deaths will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 1,432 new confirmed+probable deaths were reported. In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths? Please note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11: May 2021: 1 June 2021: 2 July 2021: 3 August 2021: 4 September 2021: 5 October 2021: 6 November 2021: 7 December 2021: 8 January 2022: 9 February 2022: 10 March 2022: 11 This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 case data provided by VDH.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 11, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?", "id": "M7127", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases there will be heading into the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia. In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on 1 August 2021 on the VDH COVID-19 cases dashboard. If the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases exceeds 6000, this will resolve as > 6k.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 6000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up less than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "id": "M7128", "background": "There are currently numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the U.S. that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. Of particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest: Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs. Of the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1. Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? This question will resolve on the basis of the most recent update of the \"Unweighted Proportions of Variants of Concern and Other Lineages by State or Jurisdiction\" table on the U.S. CDC's \"Variant Proportions\" page. The percentages of VOCs that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up for the two-week period ending 11 September 2021. If between now and 11 September there are additional variants classified as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera,\" these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the four variants of concern that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure. 27 July edit: Any additional variants that as of question resolution on 1 October are classified by the CDC as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will count toward the total percent figure.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "id": "M7128", "background": "There are currently numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the U.S. that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. Of particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest: Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs. Of the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1. Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? This question will resolve on the basis of the most recent update of the \"Unweighted Proportions of Variants of Concern and Other Lineages by State or Jurisdiction\" table on the U.S. CDC's \"Variant Proportions\" page. The percentages of VOCs that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up for the two-week period ending 11 September 2021. If between now and 11 September there are additional variants classified as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera,\" these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the four variants of concern that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure. 27 July edit: Any additional variants that as of question resolution on 1 October are classified by the CDC as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will count toward the total percent figure.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in increasing trajectories AND report more than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "id": "M7129", "background": "Herd immunity occurs when a high enough share of a population has either natural or vaccine-induced immunity to a contagious disease to lower reproduction rates below 1.0. Experts have not reached consensus around the share needed to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, or whether herd immunity is even possible. Vaccine hesitancy, variants which escape natural or induced immunity, waning immunity, and an uneven vaccine rollout may may limit herd immunity in Virginia, or in some Virginia communities. The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slides 8 and 9) to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021? Trajectories resolve based on the slide decks posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog. The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"Declining\" or \"Plateau\" categories prior to a \"Yes\" resolution. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's COVID-19 Pandemic Response page and in the UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard. However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution. The Virginia Department of Health reports weekly case data by health district. Population data is based on the latest Vintage Bridged-Race Postcensal Population Estimates. (Note: These are usually updated in July). 19 July 2021 clarification: A 3 consecutive week period here means there must be a single three-week period in which all health districts are in decline or plateau or have less than 5 cases per 100k.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "id": "M7129", "background": "Herd immunity occurs when a high enough share of a population has either natural or vaccine-induced immunity to a contagious disease to lower reproduction rates below 1.0. Experts have not reached consensus around the share needed to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, or whether herd immunity is even possible. Vaccine hesitancy, variants which escape natural or induced immunity, waning immunity, and an uneven vaccine rollout may may limit herd immunity in Virginia, or in some Virginia communities. The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slides 8 and 9) to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021? Trajectories resolve based on the slide decks posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog. The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"Declining\" or \"Plateau\" categories prior to a \"Yes\" resolution. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's COVID-19 Pandemic Response page and in the UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard. However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution. The Virginia Department of Health reports weekly case data by health district. Population data is based on the latest Vintage Bridged-Race Postcensal Population Estimates. (Note: These are usually updated in July). 19 July 2021 clarification: A 3 consecutive week period here means there must be a single three-week period in which all health districts are in decline or plateau or have less than 5 cases per 100k.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being \"In Surge\" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?", "id": "M7130", "background": "Virginia experienced its fastest case growth during the winter holidays, coinciding with Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and New Year holidays. Some other holidays, however, have not been associated with similar case growth. Memorial Day occurs on May 31, 2021, signaling the end of the academic year and the beginning of the summer holiday season. Meanwhile, vaccine administration continues, while Variants of Concern continue to proliferate. The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slides 8 and 9) to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being \"In Surge\" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021? The question will resolve based on the slide deck posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog on 18 June 2021. Occasionally, model runs and posts are delayed. In this case, the nearest following slide deck and post will suffice for resolution, as long as these reference the week ending 18 June 2021 (i.e., the week is not skipped). The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"In Surge\" category prior to 16 June. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's COVID-19 Pandemic Response page and in the UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard. However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?", "id": "M7131", "background": "As part of efforts to mitigate that spread of COVID-19 in Virginia, there is currently a statewide six-foot distancing requirement in effect for food and beverage establishments. Specifically: Restaurants, dining establishments, food courts, breweries, microbreweries, distilleries, wineries, tasting rooms, and farmers' markets may operate both indoor and outdoor dining areas, including bar seating, as long as all parties are separated with at least six feet between parties. (The six feet cannot include the space taken up by the seated guest.) If tables are not moveable, seat parties at least six feet apart, including at the bar and in the bar area. Spacing must also allow for physical distancing from areas outside of the facility’s control (i.e., provide physical distancing from persons on public sidewalks). When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? This resolves on the date when guidance is posted by the Virginia state government stating that the 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments has been lifted. Any lifting of the 6-foot restriction for outdoor seating but not indoor seating would not count as a lifting of the 6-foot distancing requirement. Any reduction of the distancing requirement (for example, from 6 feet to 3 feet) would count as a lifting of the 6-foot distancing requirement.", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-28 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-30", "min": "2021-04-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?", "id": "M7132", "background": "During the COVID-19 epidemic, school divisions have balanced the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission with the educational needs of K-12 students, who learn best in the classroom. Virginia school divisions have pursued a variety of in-person, remote and hybrid opening strategies. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and the Department of Education (DOE) have issued Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening (03/23/2021). VDH recommends schools use the CDC Indicators for Dynamic School Decision-Making jointly with the Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening document to inform decisions about school operations with regard to COVID-19. VDH maintains a School Metrics dashboard to assist school divisions in tracking CDC indicators. VDOE reports school division schedules in the Virginia School Operational Status dashboard. The dashboard includes five categories: In Person: 4+ days of in person instruction for all students. Partial In Person: 4+ days in person for some students (usually the younger grades); hybrid or remote other students All Hybrid: All students with some in person and some remote (none hitting the 4 days/week threshold). Partial Hybrid: Some students hybrid (usually the younger grades; none hitting the 4 days/week threshold), all others fully remote. Fully Remote: Learning is currently remote for at least 95% of students and in person for all others. According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021? The question will resolve based on VDOE's Virginia School Operational Status dashboard. The dashboard is updated sporadically as school districts update schedules. The question will resolve based on the status as of 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time, 15 September 2021. Alternatively, if the dashboard is retired, a VDOE issued news release or statement on its website, or a Governor's news release, indicating all school districts are returning to fully in-person status, and no further releases from these sources or a Virginia school district indicate a change in status as of the resolution date, then the question will resolve as \"132 Divisions.\"", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 132, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?", "id": "M7133", "background": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently substantially higher in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an increasing proportion of people hospitalized in Virginia — though as of late April 2021 those in the older age groups still make up the majority of those hospitalized. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of those hospitalized for COVID-19. As of 27 April 2021, the 60-69 age group has the largest number of hospitalizations — 5,949. Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021? Please note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9: 0-9 years old: 1 10-19 years old: 2 20-29 years old: 3 30-39 years old: 4 40-49 years old: 5 50-59 years old: 6 60-69 years old: 7 70-79 years old: 8 80+ years old: 9 This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 cases data provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 9, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?", "id": "M7134", "background": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently substantially higher in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an increasing proportion of cases. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of COVID-19 cases. As of 27 April 2021, the 20-29 age group has the largest number of cases — 124,789. Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021? Please note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9: 0-9 years old: 1 10-19 years old: 2 20-29 years old: 3 30-39 years old: 4 40-49 years old: 5 50-59 years old: 6 60-69 years old: 7 70-79 years old: 8 80+ years old: 9 This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 cases data provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 9, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?", "id": "M7135", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this summer — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174. In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 August 2021 on the VDH SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard. If the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as >40k", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 40000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7136", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this fall — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174. In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 October 2021 on the VDH SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard. If the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as >40k", "publish_time": "2021-04-29 10:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 40000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Boris Johnson not be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "id": "M7138", "background": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019. Johnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic. As of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair. The spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\". The PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\". Mr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill. As of late April 2021, Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling, a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021. Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? This question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.", "publish_time": "2021-05-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "id": "M7138", "background": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019. Johnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic. As of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair. The spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\". The PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\". Mr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill. As of late April 2021, Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling, a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021. Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? This question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.", "publish_time": "2021-05-09 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be less than 1,000?", "id": "M7139", "background": "Próspera is a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture. The city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras. The city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies. For an in-depth review of the project, see this post by Scott Alexander. Scott forecasted there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021. Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000? This question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is >= 1000 at any point during 2021. If no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system). If not, it resolves negative. Related questions What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?", "publish_time": "2021-05-01 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "id": "M7139", "background": "Próspera is a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture. The city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras. The city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies. For an in-depth review of the project, see this post by Scott Alexander. Scott forecasted there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021. Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000? This question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is >= 1000 at any point during 2021. If no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system). If not, it resolves negative. Related questions What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?", "publish_time": "2021-05-01 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage not cause injuries or property damage?", "id": "M7152", "background": "The Long March 5B rocket launched on April 29th carrying Tianhe, the core module for the planned Chinese space station. Typically space launch boosters do not reach orbit, or if they do they perform deorbit burns to reenter the atmosphere in a controlled manner. But the Long March 5B has entered orbit and will undergo an uncontrolled reentry. While most of the earth is uninhabited, an uncontrolled reentry presents some risk of injury or damage to inhabited areas. The Long March 5B will not be the largest uncontrolled reentry but it will be the largest in the last several decades according to Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer tracking the orbit of the Long March 5B. Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage? Resolution will be by reliable media report that at least one person was injured, or any amount of damage was caused, by debris from the Long March 5B core stage.", "publish_time": "2021-05-06 07:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-11 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?", "id": "M7152", "background": "The Long March 5B rocket launched on April 29th carrying Tianhe, the core module for the planned Chinese space station. Typically space launch boosters do not reach orbit, or if they do they perform deorbit burns to reenter the atmosphere in a controlled manner. But the Long March 5B has entered orbit and will undergo an uncontrolled reentry. While most of the earth is uninhabited, an uncontrolled reentry presents some risk of injury or damage to inhabited areas. The Long March 5B will not be the largest uncontrolled reentry but it will be the largest in the last several decades according to Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer tracking the orbit of the Long March 5B. Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage? Resolution will be by reliable media report that at least one person was injured, or any amount of damage was caused, by debris from the Long March 5B core stage.", "publish_time": "2021-05-06 07:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-11 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7156", "background": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. From 25 April to 1 May 2021 there were 35,032 who were hospitalized due to COVID-19. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations. A plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: The CDC’s New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 webpage COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs The CDC’s COVIDView website The CDC’s Hospitalization forecasts website The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity for the dates from 2021-05-31 to 2021-06-06, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-05-30 to 2021-06-05. Daily updates are provided by the Department of Health and Human Services. The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github data repository. This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed on 2021-06-14.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 60000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7157", "background": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 4 May 2021 there are 574,679 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. The number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-04-25 and ending on 2021-05-01 was 4,647. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: The CDC’s COVIDView website Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive) as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-05-30 up to, and including, 2021-06-05. The report will be accessed on 2021-06-14.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 8000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7158", "background": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet) has reported on 2021-05-04 that 1.1% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group between 25 April to 1 May 2021 was 347,461. A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time The Latest Map and Case count by the NY Times What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive) recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed on 2021-06-14.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 800000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?", "id": "M7159", "background": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, and, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of 95%, the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of 94%, and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of 66%. As of 04 May 2021, 147,894,671 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. Data sources and more information: COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process Vaccine recommendations from the CDC CDC COVID Data Tracker What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a vaccine on 2021-05-31 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker under Vaccine Trends. The dashboard is updated daily at 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-06-14.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 185000000, "min": 148000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?", "id": "M7160", "background": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, and, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of 95%, the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of 94%, and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of 66%. As of 04 May 2021, 106,168,588 people are fully vaccinated. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. Data sources and more information: COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process Vaccine recommendations from the CDC CDC COVID Data Tracker What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a vaccine on 2021-05-31 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column “People Fully Vaccinated”. The dashboard is updated daily at 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-06-14.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 165000000, "min": 106000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?", "id": "M7161", "background": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 4 May 2021 there are 574,679 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? This question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 1100000, "min": 575000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial not be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "id": "M7162", "background": "Derek Michael Chauvin is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of George Floyd. As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing. On May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. Further, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. The motions can be read here. (PDF) Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? This question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-05-08 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "id": "M7162", "background": "Derek Michael Chauvin is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of George Floyd. As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing. On May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. Further, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. The motions can be read here. (PDF) Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? This question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-05-08 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?", "id": "M7164", "background": "Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest: Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are three VOIs: B.1.526, B.1.525, and P.2. Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429. Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are no VOHCs. According to the CDC \"SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions\" page, of 30 April there are five of the above variants that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" — these are: P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, and B.1.526. Combined, these variants made up ~19.4% of sequences for the two-week period ending 10 April. These variants are thought to cause reduced neutralization because of evidence from lab studies, which are cited on the CDC page. What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021? This question will resolve on the basis of the first update that shows figures for the two-week period ending 05 June of the \"Weighted Estimates of Proportions of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages\" table on the U.S. CDC's \"Variant Proportions\" page. The percentages of variants that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up. If between now and 05 June there are additional variants classified by the CDC as variants that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera,\" these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the variants that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.", "publish_time": "2021-05-05 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-18 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?", "id": "M7177", "background": "Ethereum is the second largest blockchain in market capitalization of its base currency (ETH), and the first and largest Turing-complete blockchain. Users pay fees so that nodes will include their transactions in the chain. The fee attached to an Ethereum transaction is usually called \"gas\". Currently, the price of gas is determined via auction. When users submit transactions to the blockchain they indicate how much they're willing to pay for their transaction to be included in the next block. Nodes then sort transactions selfishly to maximize their profit. This leads to fee volatility and results in long delays for transactions submitted with low bids, among other issues. Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 seeks to address this by introducing new pricing mechanism. With EIP-1559, a base fee is calculated dynamically as a function of network congestion. Crucially, this base fee is \"burned\" i.e. forever removed from the ETH supply. On top of this base fee, users can add a priority fee that works similarly to current fees. The effect this will have on gas price remains unclear, with Ethereum core developers opining that it will have no overall impact. EIP-1559 is scheduled to launch as part of the London upgrade on 2021/07/14. What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559? This question will resolve as the (daily) average price of gas, in gwei, one week after EIP-1559 is successfully deployed. What constitutes a successful deployment is defined in the fine print. Data will be pulled from YCharts or, if that source was unavailable, from Etherscan. If no successful deployment of EIP-1559 happens before the end of 2021, this question resolves ambiguous. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-14 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-12 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies", "Computing – Blockchain" ], "choices": { "max": 500, "min": 10, "deriv_ratio": 50 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?", "id": "M7178", "background": "Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Peaking previously on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. Previous Questions: US Building Permits May 2021 Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: MQL5 Trading Economics FXstreet MarketsInsider What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021? Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of June. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-14 23:45:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?", "id": "M7179", "background": "The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. “Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.” Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases. Previous Questions: US Michigan CSI Prelim. for May 2021 Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Briefing.com FXstreet Markets Insider What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021? This question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the University of Michigan or other alternative reporting sources such as MQL5.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-11 21:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 110, "min": 50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?", "id": "M7180", "background": "Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. Previous Questions: Change in US Durable Goods Orders May 2021 Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Investing.com Trading Economics What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021? This question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for June 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-25 00:06:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", "id": "M7181", "background": "Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see historical data for this figure here. Similar Questions: April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls May 2021 US nonfarm payrolls Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Markets Insider MQL5 Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? This question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of June, which will be released in early July. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-02 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?", "id": "M7182", "background": "The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy, and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. Because of this, we can observe trends in changes of consumer prices. As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021? This question will resolve as the monthly average in tens of millions of barrels for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of June as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found here. This will include the reporting dates for 9-June, 16-June, 23-June, 30-June. For reference, a previous report released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-30 00:35:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?", "id": "M7183", "background": "The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Investing.com MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021? This question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-08 00:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": -2, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?", "id": "M7184", "background": "The Federal Reserve keeps an Industrial Production Index which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Related questions: Industrial Production Index May 2021 Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Briefing.com Trading Economics Markets Insider Investing.com What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021? This question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. As the base for the Index recently changed to 2017, revising previous numbers for earlier months, this question will resolve as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index from May to June 2021 using the May and June 2021 values with the 2017, rather than 2012, base.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-14 00:58:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?", "id": "M7185", "background": "Retail sales measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars. Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. Related questions: Total Retail Sales May 2021 Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021? This resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for June 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-14 01:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 800, "min": 500, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in June 2021?", "id": "M7186", "background": "Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Related question: Initial Jobless Claims May 2021 Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in June 2021? This question will resolve as the moving 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on July 1, 2021 for the reference date June 26, 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-11 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 01:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the UK Conservative Party lose the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "id": "M7190", "background": "Batley and Spen is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament from 2016 to 2021 by Tracy Brabin, a member of the Labour and Co-operative Party. A by-election will be held after Brabin was elected as the West Yorkshire Metro Mayor, and was required to resign her seat in the House of Commons as a result. In the most recent parliamentary election in this constituency, held in December 2019, the Labour Party won 22,594 votes, or 42.7% of the total number of valid votes. The Conservative Party won 19,069 votes, or 36% of the total. Labour won the seat with a majority of 3,525, or 6.7%. Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election? This question resolves positively if the Conservative and Unionist Party candidate wins the by-election held to fill the vacancy left by Tracy Brabin's resignation. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-19 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "id": "M7190", "background": "Batley and Spen is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament from 2016 to 2021 by Tracy Brabin, a member of the Labour and Co-operative Party. A by-election will be held after Brabin was elected as the West Yorkshire Metro Mayor, and was required to resign her seat in the House of Commons as a result. In the most recent parliamentary election in this constituency, held in December 2019, the Labour Party won 22,594 votes, or 42.7% of the total number of valid votes. The Conservative Party won 19,069 votes, or 36% of the total. Labour won the seat with a majority of 3,525, or 6.7%. Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election? This question resolves positively if the Conservative and Unionist Party candidate wins the by-election held to fill the vacancy left by Tracy Brabin's resignation. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-19 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?", "id": "M7191", "background": "In 1945, after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, the true nature of the secret Manhattan Project became revealed to the public, What formerly had been privy to a select few now became the object of intense public curiosity and scrutiny. Manhattan Project officials, however, had no intent to release what they viewed as essential military secrets. To both allay inordinate inquisitiveness and satisfy the legitimate public need to know, officials in early 1944 began a carefully designed public relations program in anticipation of when they would have to announce the news to the world. [...] Sixteen hours after the bombing, the White House released a statement by President Harry S. Truman, who was en route from the Potsdam Conference aboard the U.S.S. Augusta. \"It is an atomic bomb,\" Truman announced, \"harnessing... the basic power of the universe. The force from which the sun draws its power has been loosed against those who brought war to the Far East.\" In 2021 a report on UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) is scheduled to be released to the public by the US Government on June 1st. A measure of media and public interest into this report, at the time of the publication, may serve as a guidepost for understanding how important this development is. Will the report be a landmark development in the history of science — as was the revelation of atomic bombs in 1945 — or will it fade from the news cycle within days? How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate? Two weeks after the initial public information about the UAP report is revealed (whether or not it is released on the scheduled date of June 1st, and whether or not the full report is released to the public), the following indicators will be added together to form an \"index\" representing the amount of public interest in the UAP report. This index will be used for resolution. One point if the report is mentioned in the English Wikipedia's section \"In the news\" on its main page. One point if the Google Trends interest in the topic of UFOs reaches at least 300% any prior level in the last 12 months, as determined using the current widget showing the last 12 months of interest on Google Trends. One point if a Reddit post regarding UAPs receives at least 150 thousand net upvotes, as measured by browsing /r/all and viewing the top posts of the last month. One point if President Biden gives a public speech of any kind, whose primary purpose is to provide information regarding UAP revelations. One more point if, in Biden's speech, he says the terms \"alien\" or \"extraterrestrial\" (including their plural). One point if #UFO obtains a value of at least 500 on trendsmap during any period. One point if Elon Musk tweets anything about UAPs. One point if anything about UAPs appears on NASA's blog. One point if the S&P 500 closing price falls or rises at least 500 points compared to its pre-report value, for reasons widely considered to be related to the UAP report. One point times the number of articles appearing in Fox News' UFO category during the two week period, divided by 25, with a maximum value of 1. (In other words, take min(1, articles/25)). Each part of the index must happen during the two week period after the report is released. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-12 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Technology – Aviation", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": { "max": 10, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Pedro Castillo loose the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?", "id": "M7192", "background": "On June 6, 2021 Peru will have the second round of its presidential election. Pedro Castillo versus Keiko Fujimori. Pedro Castillo is a teacher and trade unionist from a rural part of Peru. He is a leader of the leftist Free Peru party. Several Free Peru party members have had ties to the Shining Path (a once very powerful leftist guerilla movement with a terrible human rights record). In the first round, Castillo was initially polling at only 3% but surprised everyone when his support surged to win the first round with 19%. Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori and former first-lady. She is the leader of the right-wing Popular Force party which came in second place with 13% on the first round. If elected, she might pardon her father who currently is incarcerated in a Peruvian jail. Fujimori, and many members of her party, are currently facing corruption charges. Peru is suffering from the devastating impact of the coronavirus on peoples' health and on the economy. This combined with the high levels of political corruption may have caused people to vote for candidates who are polar opposites on the political spectrum. Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election? Resolution: Peru ONPE, the official organization that runs Peru's elections. Resolves ambiguously if there is no second round of the election in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-05 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?", "id": "M7192", "background": "On June 6, 2021 Peru will have the second round of its presidential election. Pedro Castillo versus Keiko Fujimori. Pedro Castillo is a teacher and trade unionist from a rural part of Peru. He is a leader of the leftist Free Peru party. Several Free Peru party members have had ties to the Shining Path (a once very powerful leftist guerilla movement with a terrible human rights record). In the first round, Castillo was initially polling at only 3% but surprised everyone when his support surged to win the first round with 19%. Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori and former first-lady. She is the leader of the right-wing Popular Force party which came in second place with 13% on the first round. If elected, she might pardon her father who currently is incarcerated in a Peruvian jail. Fujimori, and many members of her party, are currently facing corruption charges. Peru is suffering from the devastating impact of the coronavirus on peoples' health and on the economy. This combined with the high levels of political corruption may have caused people to vote for candidates who are polar opposites on the political spectrum. Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election? Resolution: Peru ONPE, the official organization that runs Peru's elections. Resolves ambiguously if there is no second round of the election in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-05 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Sabaton release their tenth album?", "id": "M7204", "background": "Swedish heavy metal band Sabaton has released many albums featuring historical themes since their formation in 1999, most recently The Great War, which covers events that happened during the First World War. They recently announced that they were heading back into the studio to record their next album, which is arguably their tenth album after these previous releases: Metalizer (2002, released 2007) Primo Victoria (2005) Attero Dominatus (2006) The Art of War (2008) Coat of Arms (2010) Carolus Rex (2012) Heroes (2014) The Last Stand (2016) The Great War (2019) When will Sabaton release their tenth album? This resolves to the date that Sabaton's next new album is released; a new album is any album that contains at least 7 songs originally performed by Sabaton that were not released prior to 2021. This means that the song Livgardet / The Royal Guard would count if it is also on the album, since it was released as a single in 2021, but the song Defense of Moscow would not, since it is a cover of a song originally performed by Radio Tapok.", "publish_time": "2021-05-12 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-06 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment Industry" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-13", "min": "2021-05-13", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?", "id": "M7212", "background": "Context Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Related questions: Initial Jobless Claims March 2021 Initial Jobless Claims April 2021 Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021? This question will resolve as the moving 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on July 1, 2021 for the reference date May 27, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the Federal Reserve. This is an altered question for the original Initial Jobless Claims May 2021 question that extends the ranges and adjusts the resolution criteria", "publish_time": "2021-05-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-26 20:55:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When Forbes calculates the highest FY2021 earnings for these 13 celebrities, how much will be earned by the highest earner (in millions of USD)?", "id": "M7213", "background": "Forbes Magazine, in an article last year, mentioned Marilyn Monroe (d. 1962) Charles Schulz (20th year) \"Dr. Seuss\" (oldest) (20th year) Elvis Presley (20th year) John Lennon (20th year) George Harrison Freddie Mercury Bob Marley Arnold Palmer Kobe Bryant the musician known as \"Prince\" young \"Juice WRLD\" (1998-2019) and Michael Jackson They were listed in ascending order from Marilyn ($8 million USD) to Michael ($48 million USD). Wrote Forbes: Our annual list of the top-earning dead celebrities measures pretax income from October 1, 2019 through October 1, 2020. Similar lists were published annually, since 2001. If Forbes publishes such a list for 2021, we ask: When Forbes calculates the highest FY2021 earnings for these 13 celebrities, how much will be earned by the highest earner (in millions of USD)? Any icon on the 2021 list who is not listed above will be ignored. The question will resolve as the highest 2021 earnings of any of the icons listed above. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-22 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-26 00:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy", "Entertainment", "Finance" ], "choices": { "max": 400, "min": 20, "deriv_ratio": 20 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Taipei not enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?", "id": "M7214", "background": "On May 15 2021, Taiwan responded to an increase in COVID cases by raising the epidemic warning level to Level 3 in Taipei and New Taipei City. These restrictions include restricting all indoor gatherings involving over 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors. Under Level 4 restrictions, members of the public are only allowed to leave home to buy food, seek medical care and for work needs. Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st? This can be resolved by checking the English press release on the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website on June 1st. If an announcement stating that Taipei has entered Level 4 restrictions was made by May 31st, then the question is resolved positively. If there is no such announcement then the question is resolved negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-25 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?", "id": "M7214", "background": "On May 15 2021, Taiwan responded to an increase in COVID cases by raising the epidemic warning level to Level 3 in Taipei and New Taipei City. These restrictions include restricting all indoor gatherings involving over 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors. Under Level 4 restrictions, members of the public are only allowed to leave home to buy food, seek medical care and for work needs. Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st? This can be resolved by checking the English press release on the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website on June 1st. If an announcement stating that Taipei has entered Level 4 restrictions was made by May 31st, then the question is resolved positively. If there is no such announcement then the question is resolved negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-05-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-05-25 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7220", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008 Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 2,500 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7220", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008 Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 2,500 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7221", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implication: 10x the war threshold Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7221", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implication: 10x the war threshold Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7222", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008. Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7222", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008. Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7223", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year. Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 400 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "id": "M7223", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year. Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 400 Palestinian deaths in 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "id": "M7224", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008 Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "id": "M7224", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008 Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "id": "M7225", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "id": "M7225", "background": "Background Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days. However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved? Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict. Sources for live-updates: The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Question For this question, you are asked to forecast: Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com. Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF? Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021? Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter. Base-Rate Data UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/ Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/ Question with Resolution Criteria Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-05-18 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-10 06:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3 to Level 2?", "id": "M7241", "background": "On May 19th, Taiwan imposed Level 3 restrictions across the entire country. This question tries to estimate whether or not those restrictions will reduce the spread of COVID in Taiwan. When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3 to Level 2? The data source used to resolve this question will be the English version of the Taiwanese CDC website. If an article is posted on the homepage announcing a reduction of restrictions in any area from Level 3 to a lower level, then the start date of the reduced restriction will be considered the answer.", "publish_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-23 10:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-01-01", "min": "2021-05-28", "deriv_ratio": 35.421052631578945 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Federal government not issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?", "id": "M7246", "background": "There is speculation that the US federal government needs to declare first-ever official shortage declaration in the US West. That would mean mandatory water cutbacks in some states. ABC News: US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration. NPR: Melting Snow Usually Means Water For The West. But This Year, It Might Not Be Enough Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021? Resolves true if the US Federal government agency (most likely USBR) declares a water shortage in some states or regions in the US in 2021. The declaration must be published on relevant federal government website like United States Bureau of Reclamation, U.S Department of Interior, or Federal Register.", "publish_time": "2021-06-14 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?", "id": "M7246", "background": "There is speculation that the US federal government needs to declare first-ever official shortage declaration in the US West. That would mean mandatory water cutbacks in some states. ABC News: US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration. NPR: Melting Snow Usually Means Water For The West. But This Year, It Might Not Be Enough Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021? Resolves true if the US Federal government agency (most likely USBR) declares a water shortage in some states or regions in the US in 2021. The declaration must be published on relevant federal government website like United States Bureau of Reclamation, U.S Department of Interior, or Federal Register.", "publish_time": "2021-06-14 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-29 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Environment – Climate" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Elizabeth Holmes not be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "id": "M7291", "background": "Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud. According to the indictment, the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California. Theranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data. Holmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. Theranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America. A turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018. Holmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, subject to further legal wrangling, with the trial expected to commence on August 31. However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers, the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer. Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. If Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023. If this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.", "publish_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "id": "M7291", "background": "Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud. According to the indictment, the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California. Theranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data. Holmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. Theranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America. A turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018. Holmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, subject to further legal wrangling, with the trial expected to commence on August 31. However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers, the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer. Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. If Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023. If this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.", "publish_time": "2021-05-31 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Coalition lose the next Australian federal election?", "id": "M7295", "background": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. From Wikipedia: The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia. All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election. The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote. Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition. It resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition If no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government. If the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously. If at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-06-06 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-22 23:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "id": "M7295", "background": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. From Wikipedia: The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia. All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election. The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote. Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition. It resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition If no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government. If the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously. If at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-06-06 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-22 23:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the James Webb telescope be launched?", "id": "M7298", "background": "See also this question From Wikipedia, Development began in 1996 for a launch that was initially planned for 2007 and a 500-million-dollar budget, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns, and underwent a major redesign in 2005. The JWST's construction was completed in late 2016, after which its extensive testing phase began. In March 2018, NASA further delayed the launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment. Launch was delayed again in June 2018 following recommendations from an independent review board. Work on integration and testing of the telescope was suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding further delays. Work has resumed, but NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to October 31, 2021. Now, NASA had been working toward an October 31st launch date for the James Webb Space Telescope, but it's having to delay the science observatory's trip into space once again. Thankfully, the launch might take place just a few weeks later, in November or early December. A rescheduled date is unlikely to be confirmed until later this summer or perhaps in the fall. XKCD provided an extrapolated launch date of around 2026, given previous launch delays. When will the James Webb telescope be launched? This question resolves on the date during which the first component of the James Webb telescope is first launched upwards towards (whether or not the telescope functions as intended, or indeed even lasts more than one second after launch without blowing up), as described by reliable media.", "publish_time": "2021-06-04 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 08:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": { "max": "2031-05-30", "min": "2021-09-28", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7301", "background": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. From May 23 to May 29, 2021 there were 21,097 who were hospitalized due to COVID-19. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies in response to a predicted increase or decrease in the expected number of hospitalizations. A plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: The CDC’s New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 webpage COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs The CDC’s COVIDView website The CDC’s Hospitalization forecasts website The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity for the dates from 2021-06-28 to 2021-07-04, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-06-27 to 2021-07-03. Daily updates are provided by the Department of Health and Human Services. The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github data repository. This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed on 2021-07-12.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 40000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7302", "background": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of June 01, 2021 there are 591,539 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction made on May 31, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-06-20 and ending on 2021-06-26 is 4,744. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: The CDC’s COVIDView website Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive) as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-06-27 up to, and including, 2021-07-03. The report will be accessed on 2021-07-12.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 5000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?", "id": "M7303", "background": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet) has reported on June 1, 2021 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group between May. 23 to May 29, 2021 was 147,055. A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here. Data sources and more information: Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset The COVID-19 ForecastHub CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time The Latest Map and Case count by the NY Times What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive) recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed on 2021-07-12.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 300000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?", "id": "M7305", "background": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, and, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of 95%, the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of 94%, and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of 66%. As of 01 June 2021, 168,489,729 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. Data sources and more information: COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process Vaccine recommendations from the CDC CDC COVID Data Tracker What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a vaccine on 2021-06-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker under Vaccine Trends. The dashboard is updated daily at 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-07-12.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 200000000, "min": 169000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?", "id": "M7306", "background": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, and, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of 95%, the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of 94%, and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of 66%. As of 01 June 2021, 135,867,425 people are fully vaccinated. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. Data sources and more information: COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process Vaccine recommendations from the CDC CDC COVID Data Tracker What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-06-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column “People Fully Vaccinated”. The dashboard is updated daily at 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-07-12.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 180000000, "min": 136000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?", "id": "M7307", "background": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 1 June 2021 there are 595,422 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? This question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 1200000, "min": 595000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?", "id": "M7308", "background": "Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest: Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 01 June, there are eight VOIs: B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.526.1, B.1.617, B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2, B.1.617.3, and P.2. Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 01 June, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429. Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 01 June, there are no VOHCs. As of 01 June, variants that cause \"reduced neutralization\" by convalescent and/or post-vaccination sera according to the CDC are P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.526, B.1.617, P.2. Combined, these variants made up ~15.7% of sequences for the two-week period ending 8 May. These variants are thought to cause reduced neutralization because of evidence from lab studies, which are cited on the CDC page. What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021? This question will resolve on the basis of the first update that shows figures for the two-week period ending 03 July of the \"Weighted Estimates of Proportions of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages\" table on the U.S. CDC's \"Variant Proportions\" page. The percentages of variants that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up. If between now and 03 July there are additional variants classified by the CDC as variants that cause \"reduced neutralization\" by convalescent and/or post-vaccination sera, these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the variants that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.", "publish_time": "2021-06-02 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-16 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?", "id": "M7311", "background": "A conference in London this weekend (June 4-5th) will play host to the G7 Finance Chiefs in an effort to collaborate on and \"ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances.\" Reuters writes: \"To help alleviate the strain on public finances, the draft communique said the G7 strongly supported the efforts of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to set a global minimum corporate tax level that would ensure large multinationals paid their fair share of taxes. Such a tax would aim to solve the problem of large companies that generate huge revenues but pay very little tax because they set up offices for tax purposes in low-tax jurisdictions. The solution the OECD is working on would force a minimum global level of tax on all corporate revenues, no matter where a company chooses to set up its headquarters for tax purposes.\" The United States originally proposed a minimum tax level of 21% in April, which was recently lowered to 15%, garnering \"broad support\" from in Europe with the exception of the UK. An agreement on the implementation of a global corporate tax law is set to occur at the G20 Conference in July 2021. If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries? This question resolves as the approved minimum corporate tax level that will be applied to all G20 countries in principle by the OECD through the decision making process at the G20 Conference this July 2021. If no minimum corporate tax law is approved at either the G7 Conference in June or in the G20 Conference in July, then this question resolves ambiguously. If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at either conference, but no specific numbers are released to the press or decided on by the G20 leaders, then the question will resolve ambiguously. If some countries hold out and do not agree to the minimum corporate tax law, but a majority of the G20 countries (>10) agree to approve a certain level of corporate tax, then the question will resolve as that level of tax. If only a minority (<10) approve the minimum corporate tax law, then the question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-05 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-26 22:14:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business", "Finance", "Politics", "Economy", "Law" ], "choices": { "max": 40, "min": 1, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?", "id": "M7337", "background": "Blue Origin, the rocket company founded by Jeff Bezos, has announced the date of its first commercial passenger mission, July 20, and has announced that one of the first passengers will be the winner of an online auction to benefit Blue Origin’s foundation, Club for the Future, whose mission is to inspire future generations to pursue careers in STEM and to help invent the future of life in space. Anyone can bid on the company's website. Since announcing the auction, it has been revealed that Jeff Bezos himself will be a passenger on the first flight, and the current high bid, as of 8 June, is reported as $3.8 million. The bidding concludes with a live online auction on June 12th. Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos? This question resolves as the reported value of the winning bid for the first ticket to fly on Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket with Jeff Bezos, as announced by Blue Origin or its agents. The resolution value is in millions of US dollars. Any winning bid in an alternative currency should be converted to US dollars at market rates as of the close of bidding for resolution. If the auction is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-08 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-11 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 3.8, "deriv_ratio": 13.157894736842106 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?", "id": "M7346", "background": "Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021? This question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on July 29, 2021 for the reference date July 24, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-25 23:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?", "id": "M7348", "background": "Retail sales measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars. Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021? This resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for July 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-08 23:51:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 800, "min": 400, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?", "id": "M7349", "background": "The Federal Reserve keeps an Industrial Production Index which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Briefing.com Trading Economics Markets Insider Investing.com What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021? This question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-09 23:55:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?", "id": "M7350", "background": "The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Investing.com MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021? This question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-07 23:59:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": -2, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?", "id": "M7351", "background": "The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy, and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. Because of this, we can observe trends in changes of consumer prices. As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021? This question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of June in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found here. This will include the reporting dates for 7-July, 14-July, 21-July, 28-July. For reference, a previous report released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-22 00:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?", "id": "M7352", "background": "Non-farm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see historical data for this figure here. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Markets Insider MQL5 Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? This question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of July, which will be released in early August. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-02 00:05:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?", "id": "M7353", "background": "Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Investing.com Trading Economics What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021? This question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for July 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?", "id": "M7354", "background": "The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. “Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.” Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Briefing.com FXstreet Markets Insider What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021? This question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the University of Michigan or other alternative reporting sources such as MQL5.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-06 00:21:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 110, "min": 50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?", "id": "M7355", "background": "Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: MQL5 Trading Economics FXstreet MarketsInsider What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021? Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of July. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-10 00:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?", "id": "M7357", "background": "Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021? This question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 2, 2021 for the reference date August 28, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?", "id": "M7358", "background": "Retail sales measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars. Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021? This resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for August 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\"", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-15 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 800, "min": 400, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?", "id": "M7359", "background": "The Federal Reserve keeps an Industrial Production Index which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Briefing.com Trading Economics Markets Insider Investing.com What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021? This question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-14 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?", "id": "M7360", "background": "The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Investing.com MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021? This question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-07 01:10:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": -2, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?", "id": "M7361", "background": "The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy, and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. Because of this, we can observe trends in changes of consumer prices. As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021? This question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of August in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found here. This will include the reporting dates for 4-August, 11-August, 18-August, 25-August. For reference, a previous report released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-19 01:12:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?", "id": "M7362", "background": "Non-farm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see historical data for this figure here. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Markets Insider MQL5 Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? This question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of August, which will be released in early September. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-02 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?", "id": "M7363", "background": "Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Investing.com Trading Economics What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021? This question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for August 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-24 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?", "id": "M7364", "background": "The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. “Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.” Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Briefing.com FXstreet Markets Insider What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021? This question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the University of Michigan or other alternative reporting sources such as MQL5.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-08 01:18:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 110, "min": 50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?", "id": "M7365", "background": "Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: MQL5 Trading Economics FXstreet MarketsInsider What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021? Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of August. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-20 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?", "id": "M7366", "background": "Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021? This question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 30, 2021 for the reference date September 25, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-29 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?", "id": "M7367", "background": "Retail sales measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars. Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021? This resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for September 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-14 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 800, "min": 400, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?", "id": "M7368", "background": "The Federal Reserve keeps an Industrial Production Index which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Briefing.com Trading Economics Markets Insider Investing.com What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021? This question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the Federal Reserve and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-15 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?", "id": "M7369", "background": "The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Investing.com MQL5 Markets Insider What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021? This question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-09 01:27:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 2, "min": -2, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?", "id": "M7370", "background": "The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy, and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. Because of this, we can observe trends in changes of consumer prices. As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021? This question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of September in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found here. This will include the reporting dates for 8-September, 15-September, 22-September, 29-September. For reference, a previous report released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-23 01:28:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?", "id": "M7371", "background": "Non-farm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see historical data for this figure here. Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: FXstreet Markets Insider MQL5 Financial Forecast Center Investing.com Trading Economics For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? This question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of September, which will be released in early October This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-07 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 5, "min": -5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?", "id": "M7372", "background": "The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. “Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.” Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: Investing.com Trading Economics MQL5 Briefing.com FXstreet Markets Insider What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021? This question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. The resolution will be sourced from the University of Michigan or other alternative reporting sources such as MQL5.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-17 13:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 110, "min": 50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?", "id": "M7373", "background": "Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: MQL5 Trading Economics FXstreet MarketsInsider What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021? Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of September. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-18 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 3, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "id": "M7374", "background": "Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the United States here. What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q4 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": -20, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?", "id": "M7375", "background": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"\"fear gauge\"\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices. To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a peak of 82.69. One popular indicator of expected volatility is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\" These large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index. What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing? This question resolves as the level of the US VIX Index at closing on the release date of July's Non-Farm Payroll numbers. Resolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-02 01:38:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 10, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the VIX Index remain above 15 until 9-01-21?", "id": "M7376", "background": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices. To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of 82.69 on the 16th with an intra-daily peak of 85.54 on the 18th. At just above 18 at the beginning of June 2021, the VIX has now fallen back in line with its typical values. Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21? This question resolves positively if at any point before 9-01-21 an intra-daily or closing value of the VIX falls below 15. Resolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 18:55:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?", "id": "M7376", "background": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices. To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of 82.69 on the 16th with an intra-daily peak of 85.54 on the 18th. At just above 18 at the beginning of June 2021, the VIX has now fallen back in line with its typical values. Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21? This question resolves positively if at any point before 9-01-21 an intra-daily or closing value of the VIX falls below 15. Resolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-06-23 18:55:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the MOVE Index not breach 70 before 11-01-21?", "id": "M7378", "background": "The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market. MOVE Index creator Harley Bassman comments that: \"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do.\" In March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of 53.54, the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of nearly 140. In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times. Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21? This question resolves positively if at any point before 11-01-21 the MOVE Index breaches 70. This will include inter-daily values, and the last day counted will be the closing value on 10-31-21. If no closing or inter-daily value breach 70 before before 11-01-21, then this question will resolve negatively. Resolution source will come from Google Finance or from any other reliable financial reporting platform.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-27 09:37:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?", "id": "M7378", "background": "The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market. MOVE Index creator Harley Bassman comments that: \"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do.\" In March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of 53.54, the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of nearly 140. In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times. Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21? This question resolves positively if at any point before 11-01-21 the MOVE Index breaches 70. This will include inter-daily values, and the last day counted will be the closing value on 10-31-21. If no closing or inter-daily value breach 70 before before 11-01-21, then this question will resolve negatively. Resolution source will come from Google Finance or from any other reliable financial reporting platform.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-27 09:37:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?", "id": "M7379", "background": "An E-mini is an electronically traded futures contract that is a fraction of the value of its corresponding futures contract. E-mini futures are predominately traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and typically correspond to large range of indices, including the US S&P 500. As defined by the Corporate Finance Institute, \"A futures contract, referred to as a futures, is a binding legal financial contract, or an agreement, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price, at a specified, pre-agreed date, in the future, between two parties who don’t necessarily know, or are involved in business with, each other.\" These transactions allow the presence of smaller traders who could not necessarily afford the full sized contract. Because the E-minis are broken down into fractional parts for this type of trading, it increases the flexibility of futures trading and the liquidity of the market. The recent boom of the stock market following the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed E-mini trading prices for the S&P 500 futures contracts to their highest level since its origination in 2008. What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September? This question resolves as the lowest closing value for the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Continuous Contract in September. For this question, inter-daily values will not be counted. Resolution will be sourced from MarketWatch or other reliable financial reporting platforms.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-02 01:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 5000, "min": 3500, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be below 4.0% for every 6 consecutive months before 2024?", "id": "M7382", "background": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" (Investopedia) The question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023. The \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) for resolution. This question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included. This question resolves negatively if otherwise. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-23 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-10 18:28:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", "id": "M7382", "background": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" (Investopedia) The question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023. The \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) for resolution. This question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included. This question resolves negatively if otherwise. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-23 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-10 18:28:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Biden not pass an infrastructure package in 2021?", "id": "M7386", "background": "Passing an infrastructure package is a major goal of the Biden Administration. Biden proposed the American Jobs Plan, a $1.9 trillion infrastructure plan, in April. But, he has to either get all 50 senate Democrats to pass a bill through budget reconciliation, or get at least 10 Republicans to vote for the bill. Biden's infrastructure plan can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/stat… Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021? This resolves positively if in 2021 Congress passes and the president signs an infrastructure package that will cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years, according to the CBO. Resolves per credible media reporting. This question closes retroactively to one week prior to the day of passage.", "publish_time": "2021-10-14 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Infrastructure" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?", "id": "M7386", "background": "Passing an infrastructure package is a major goal of the Biden Administration. Biden proposed the American Jobs Plan, a $1.9 trillion infrastructure plan, in April. But, he has to either get all 50 senate Democrats to pass a bill through budget reconciliation, or get at least 10 Republicans to vote for the bill. Biden's infrastructure plan can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/stat… Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021? This resolves positively if in 2021 Congress passes and the president signs an infrastructure package that will cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years, according to the CBO. Resolves per credible media reporting. This question closes retroactively to one week prior to the day of passage.", "publish_time": "2021-10-14 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Infrastructure" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?", "id": "M7400", "background": "Durable goods orders is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. Data for this number encompasses over 5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries, and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: FXstreet MQL5 Markets Insider Briefing.com Investing.com Trading Economics What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021? This question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for September 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. Historical data can be found here.", "publish_time": "2021-06-15 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-26 19:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": -15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?", "id": "M7443", "background": "On 25 January 2021 President Biden signed a proclamation continuing the suspension of entry of certain travellers from the Schengen Area, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Brazil, and expanding restrictions to include travellers from South Africa. The ban prohibits foreign nationals from entering the United States if they have been physically present in the U.K. within 14 days before their attempted entry. U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, certain family members and foreign diplomats are exempt. On 8 June 2021, a White House official indicated that it would be forming expert working groups with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and the U.K. to determine how best to safely restart travel after 15 months of pandemic restrictions. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.? The issuance of an official declaration from the White House which indicates that the restrictions on travel from the U.K. as codified in the Presidential Proclamation no longer apply will be considered for resolution. Key resolution details: The resolution date will be the date the restrictions are lifted, not the date the issuance is made. If the proclamation remains in place but exemptions are added such that >50% of the U.K. population are exempt at the time of the issuance (e.g. a vaccine passport), this will trigger a positive resolution. This question does not consider whether the U.K. will allow travel from the U.S. (e.g. if the U.K. government puts the US on its ‘green list’). If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the U.K. before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”", "publish_time": "2021-06-20 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-12-30", "min": "2021-06-16", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will NASA not issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?", "id": "M7448", "background": "NASA recently awarded SpaceX $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were \"extremely important principles\" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising. In its source selection statement [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B. There have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned: Blue Origin and Dynetics quickly filed protests on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO denied these protest on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company. The version of S. 1260 The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act which the Senate passed on June 8 includes in it language which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an authorization, not an appropriation, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be some resistance to this in the House, and the bill's ultimate future is unknown. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the \"infrastructure bill\" which Congress is currently debating. On July 26, Jeff Bezos offered to waive the first $2 billion in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system. Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022? This question will resolve positively if before 1 January 2022, NASA awards a fully funded second HLS contract to a provider other than SpaceX. This question will resolve negatively otherwise. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-04 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Industry – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?", "id": "M7448", "background": "NASA recently awarded SpaceX $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were \"extremely important principles\" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising. In its source selection statement [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B. There have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned: Blue Origin and Dynetics quickly filed protests on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO denied these protest on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company. The version of S. 1260 The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act which the Senate passed on June 8 includes in it language which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an authorization, not an appropriation, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be some resistance to this in the House, and the bill's ultimate future is unknown. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the \"infrastructure bill\" which Congress is currently debating. On July 26, Jeff Bezos offered to waive the first $2 billion in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system. Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022? This question will resolve positively if before 1 January 2022, NASA awards a fully funded second HLS contract to a provider other than SpaceX. This question will resolve negatively otherwise. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-04 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Industry – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?", "id": "M7465", "background": "Metaculus is running its (first?) Trade Signal Tournament, to attempt predicting a basket of economic indicators. On top of that, we just elected a Community Trader who will translate the tournament predictions into trades, so Metaculus can try and grow the prize pool from the initial $1500. How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30? If the prize pool shrinks below $1000, Metaculus will make up the difference up to $1000. We are forecasting the prize pool before this shoring up.", "publish_time": "2021-06-24 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 150, "deriv_ratio": 100 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Sweden not have an extra election before the end of December 2021?", "id": "M7492", "background": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then. The speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months. Sources: https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim… https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa… (before the resignation) Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021? The question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date. In all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-04 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?", "id": "M7492", "background": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then. The speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months. Sources: https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim… https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa… (before the resignation) Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021? The question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date. In all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-04 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-30 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK not experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "id": "M7494", "background": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant. The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. This question asks: Will the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 700. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-03 07:05:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "id": "M7494", "background": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant. The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. This question asks: Will the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 700. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-03 07:05:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the power not go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?", "id": "M7495", "background": "High power usage in the NYC area as a result of an ongoing heat wave seems like it might result in imminent power outages. [short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July? This question will resolve positively if power goes out for at least 20% of the 18.4M people in the NYC metropolitan area before 5PM EST on 2 July 2021. Credible media reports will be consulted.", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?", "id": "M7495", "background": "High power usage in the NYC area as a result of an ongoing heat wave seems like it might result in imminent power outages. [short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July? This question will resolve positively if power goes out for at least 20% of the 18.4M people in the NYC metropolitan area before 5PM EST on 2 July 2021. Credible media reports will be consulted.", "publish_time": "2021-06-30 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", "id": "M7499", "background": "In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections have used a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. Right now, Eric Adams leads in first-round preference votes, but many votes remain outstanding, and the elimination rounds have yet to be definitively carried out. The election has also been marred by various mistakes by the NYC Board of Elections. What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? This question will resolve as the proportion of votes (including absentee) received by Adams in the last RCV round, which occurs after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Adams is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. This question will close retroactively 6 hours before the New York BOE releases the official report of the last RCV round.", "publish_time": "2021-07-01 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-06 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Short-fuse", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": { "max": 80, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will there not be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?", "id": "M7504", "background": "The war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of July 2021. An estimated 1.7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands reportedly face starvation if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is escalating pressure on Ethiopia to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone. Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-06 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 00:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?", "id": "M7504", "background": "The war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of July 2021. An estimated 1.7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands reportedly face starvation if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is escalating pressure on Ethiopia to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone. Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-06 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-08 00:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Taliban not capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "id": "M7514", "background": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden announced a plan to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media reports indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by 31 August 2021. Since the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country. In early July 2021, the Associated Press reported Taliban advances in several northern districts: The Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday. Later the same month, Reuters reported the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers: Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan. It is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, Kabul (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. It is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's 22 districts, so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of ARG, the Presidential Palace, located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? If credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-07-05 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "id": "M7514", "background": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden announced a plan to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media reports indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by 31 August 2021. Since the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country. In early July 2021, the Associated Press reported Taliban advances in several northern districts: The Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday. Later the same month, Reuters reported the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers: Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan. It is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, Kabul (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. It is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's 22 districts, so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of ARG, the Presidential Palace, located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? If credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-07-05 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US have fewer than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?", "id": "M7524", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if on any single day between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 there are more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This question resolves negatively if there is no single day the United States records more than 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases according to the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 14:50:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?", "id": "M7524", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if on any single day between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 there are more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This question resolves negatively if there is no single day the United States records more than 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases according to the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases.", "publish_time": "2021-07-16 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 14:50:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 not exceed 250 deaths/day?", "id": "M7537", "background": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant. The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. A previous version of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%. This question asks: Will the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-18 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-30 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?", "id": "M7537", "background": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant. The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. A previous version of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%. This question asks: Will the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-07-18 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-30 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US not have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?", "id": "M7542", "background": "Related question on Metaculus: Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases, unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.", "publish_time": "2021-07-18 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 15:18:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?", "id": "M7542", "background": "Related question on Metaculus: Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases, unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.", "publish_time": "2021-07-18 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 15:18:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US not have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M7553", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the more-transmissible Delta variant becoming predominant. The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in deaths is of interest given the higher vaccination rate of older age groups. The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021. Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1000. The source will be CDC's official count of COVID-19 deaths. Make sure the \"Daily Deaths\" view is selected.", "publish_time": "2021-07-20 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M7553", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the more-transmissible Delta variant becoming predominant. The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in deaths is of interest given the higher vaccination rate of older age groups. The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021. Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1000. The source will be CDC's official count of COVID-19 deaths. Make sure the \"Daily Deaths\" view is selected.", "publish_time": "2021-07-20 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US not have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M7554", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the more-transmissible Delta variant becoming predominant. The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in hospitalizations is of interest given the higher vaccination rate of older age groups. The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations last exceeded 6000 on 26 February 2021. Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations is greater than 6000. The source will be CDC's official count of new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations. Select the \"By Jurisdiction\" tab to see daily hospitalizations.", "publish_time": "2021-07-20 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 20:26:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M7554", "background": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the more-transmissible Delta variant becoming predominant. The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in hospitalizations is of interest given the higher vaccination rate of older age groups. The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations last exceeded 6000 on 26 February 2021. Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations is greater than 6000. The source will be CDC's official count of new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations. Select the \"By Jurisdiction\" tab to see daily hospitalizations.", "publish_time": "2021-07-20 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-07-31 20:26:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?", "id": "M7563", "background": "The United States is currently experiencing an uptick in new coronavirus infections, associated with the ascendancy of the Delta variant and the continued relaxation of controls. It is unclear whether or how quickly this uptick will develop into a significant wave of infections. The main COVID-19 forecasting consulted by the United States CDC have diverged notably in their 4-week case forecasts. According to former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, \"The wide divergence between these models suggests difficulty modeling this epidemic wave of delta, likely reflecting in part poor ascertainment of current cases, as well as diverging views on the durability of immunity, velocity and circumstances of spread, and contagiousness.\" How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th? Resolves as the sum of confirmed COVID-19 cases for the United States from 2021-08-08 through 2021-08-14 inclusive, according to the CDC. The resolution date is 10 days after August 14th to allow time for delayed reporting. If there is a significantly superior data source, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use that source for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-07-24 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-08 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse" ], "choices": { "max": 2000000, "min": 20000, "deriv_ratio": 100 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the US than the UK?", "id": "M7569", "background": "The Delta variant is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the UK and the US. The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. This question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print). Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US? This question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US. All data for resolving this question shall be drawn from Our World in Data. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?", "id": "M7569", "background": "The Delta variant is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the UK and the US. The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. This question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print). Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US? This question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US. All data for resolving this question shall be drawn from Our World in Data. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Supreme Court not hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?", "id": "M7578", "background": "Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA) is suing Harvard for its admissions policies against Asian Americans and has petitioned the US Supreme Court to hear the case. On June 14, the Supreme Court invited the Acting Solicitor General to file a brief in the case. Will the US Supreme Court begin hearing Harvard vs SFFA before 2030? Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030? This will resolve in the positive if, before 2030, an order list on the Supreme Court website indicates that certioriari is granted to Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case with other cases. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-24 17:31:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?", "id": "M7578", "background": "Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA) is suing Harvard for its admissions policies against Asian Americans and has petitioned the US Supreme Court to hear the case. On June 14, the Supreme Court invited the Acting Solicitor General to file a brief in the case. Will the US Supreme Court begin hearing Harvard vs SFFA before 2030? Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030? This will resolve in the positive if, before 2030, an order list on the Supreme Court website indicates that certioriari is granted to Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case with other cases. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-24 17:31:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "id": "M7595", "background": "Singapore, along with many other countries in the Asian-Pacific region, have kept borders closed to short-term travellers for over a year. This strategy has been remarkably successful, with the country only experiencing 37 deaths from covid-19, though spread among foreign workers who tend to be relatively young have pushed the number of cases to over 60,000. Among the countries that have largely kept covid-19 at bay, Singapore also has one of the fastest vaccination programmes, with 54% fully vaccinated and 73% vaccinated with at least one shot as of 30 July 2021. As such, the government has expressed a goal to begin cautiously resuming international travel in September. If this works out, Singapore would be one of the first 'covid-zero' countries to reopen to the world. On the other hand, Singapore is currently dealing with renewed restrictions owing to a renewed surge of cases from the Delta variant. This question is based on another similar question about New Zealand that can be found here. When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel? This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: Singapore no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for Safe Travel lanes or other mechanisms that place restrictions on the purpose of travel, excluding the lanes that do not have such restrictions such as the Air Travel Pass or Air Travel Bubble. Singapore no longer requires arrivals from the majority of (UN-recognized) countries to quarantine upon arrival (either home quarantine or hotel quarantine) for more than 48 hours. A short quarantine (≤48 hours) while waiting for a covid-19 test result meets this criteria. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-31 15:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-07-29", "min": "2021-07-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?", "id": "M7602", "background": "The Delta variant is thought to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness. It became the dominant variant in Virginia in the week ending 26 June 2021 according to the VDH “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their “Variants of Concern” page. There is concern that a new variant that is even more transmissible than Delta or can evade immunity to an even greater extent may overtake it to become the dominant circulating variant. On the other hand, some suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have now reached peak fitness. As of the most recent 30 July update, the dashboard shows that Delta became the dominant variant in the week ending 26 June 2021, when it made up ~63% of sequenced cases (59/93). When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia? This resolves on the basis of VDH’s “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their “Variants of Concern” page. This dashboard is updated weekly on Fridays. When the dashboard shows that a variant other than Delta makes up >50% of sequenced cases in a week, this will resolve as the last day of that week. If this does not occur before 31 December, it resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2022\" Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-12-31", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?", "id": "M7606", "background": "The 2021 NCAA football game between the University of Virginia’s Cavaliers and Virginia Tech’s Hokies is scheduled for 27 November 2021 at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville Virginia, which has a capacity of 61.5k. The attendance at the 2020 game between University of Virginia and Virginia Tech was 250, and for 2019 was 52,619. What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game? This will resolve on the basis of the attendance figure for the 27 November game against Virginia Tech. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2", "Sports" ], "choices": { "max": 61500, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?", "id": "M7611", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of 30 July 2021, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 12 years of age and older, Moderna for 18 years of age and older, and Janssen for those 18 years and older. There are currently no vaccines authorized for use in children under 12. Pfizer and Moderna are currently running trials for children under 12. According to a 26 July report by the New York Times, both Pfizer and Moderna have recently been asked by the FDA to expand the size of their trials for children ages 5 to 11. In its 28 July quarterly report, Pfizer said it expects to “have the safety and immunogenicity data that could potentially support an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for use in children ages 5 to 11 years old, if such an EUA is deemed necessary, by the end of September. The full dataset from this study, which will be required to support [full BLA approval] licensure in this age group, is expected by the end of 2021.” According to the 26 July NYT report, Moderna expects “to seek emergency authorization late this year or early next year.” When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old? This question resolves on the basis of a press announcement by the FDA stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for at least some children who are under 12 years of age. If this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as > 31 July 2022. See this similar recently closed question.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-29 19:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-07-31", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?", "id": "M7612", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines under Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine. As of 30 July 2021, no SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are fully approved under Biologics Use Authorizations (BLA). According to Harvard’s Petrie-Flom Center, an EUA differs from BLA in the following way: an EUA is “an authorization to distribute an otherwise unapproved product (or an approved product for an unapproved use) during an emergency formally declared by the Secretary of Health & Human Services,” while a BLA is “FDA’s standard ‘full approval’ mechanism for biological products, including therapeutics and vaccines. A company seeking a BLA for its product must demonstrate that the product is ‘safe, pure, and potent,’ which generally means completing robust, well-controlled clinical trials.” Both Pfizer and Moderna have submitted applications to the FDA for full BLA approval — Pfizer submitted its application on 7 May 2021 and Moderna did so on 1 June 2021. The FDA says it makes a decision on full approval within 6 months of application submission. On 30 July, STAT News reported that “the Food and Drug Administration center that reviews vaccines is planning to deprioritize some of its existing work, like meetings with drug sponsors and plant inspections, in an effort to accelerate its review of Pfizer’s application for the formal approval of its Covid-19 vaccinea senior agency official told STAT … Now, the senior agency official said, the agency will initiate a ‘sprint.’” When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA? Resolution will be determined by the date of the first FDA press release announcing the full BLA approval of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. If this does not occur before 31 January 2022, then this resolves as > 31 January 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-23 17:50:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-01-31", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?", "id": "M7613", "background": "It remains unclear when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for at least some vulnerable groups of fully vaccinated Americans (e.g.,immunocompromised groups or adults over 65 years old). There are currently three vaccines authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine. On 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a statement saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a joint statement saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter results, Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.” Moderna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also suggested that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing discussion as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second dose to serve as a booster. When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? This resolves as the date when the U.S. CDC recommends that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. This can be any group of fully vaccinated Americans — some potential such groups might be immunocompromised people or those over a certain age (e.g., 65). If this does not occur before 31 December 2021, then this resolves as > Dec 31, 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-13 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-12-31", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?", "id": "M7614", "background": "It remains unclear when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for all fully vaccinated Americans. There are currently three vaccines authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine. On 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a statement saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a joint statement saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter results, Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.” Moderna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also suggested that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing discussion as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second booster dose. When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? This resolves as the date when the U.S. CDC recommends that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. If this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as > 31 July 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-07-31", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?", "id": "M7616", "background": "Increasing the level of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in Virginia is key to slowing the rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state and lowering levels of morbidity and mortality. The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute is tracking the extent of vaccine acceptance in Virginia on a weekly basis — you can find its weekly updates here. It adjusts vaccine acceptance data from COVIDcast to correct for biases. COVIDcast in turn gets its data from surveys of Facebook users who “say they have already received a COVID vaccine, have an appointment to receive a COVID vaccine, or would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ choose to be vaccinated if a COVID vaccine were offered to them today.” The most recent estimate of the percentage of Virginians that are “vaccine accepting” is 77% — see the “COVIDcast accepting corrected” column on slide 12 of the UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s 28 July COVID-19 Impact update. According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”? This will resolve on the basis of the “COVIDcast accepting corrected” value that reflects vaccine acceptance in Virginia, as reported in the 1 October 2021 weekly update by UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute. It will be accessed here. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-10 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7617", "background": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA, and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of 31 July, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 12+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. As of 31 July, 54.0% of Virginia's total population of 8.5M is fully vaccinated. What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the \"% of the Population Fully Vaccinated\" figure displayed on 1 October 2021 on the VDH COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-10 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 54, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7618", "background": "In Virginia, younger age groups have recently made up a growing share of overall vaccinations — see slide 11 in the 28 July COVID Impact report. However, the overall number of new daily vaccinations has recently plateaued at a low of about 12k. As of 31 July, 43.5% of the 18-24 age group in Virginia is fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? This will resolve as the percentage of 18-24 year old Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of 1 October 2021. This value will be accessed on the “Percent of the Population Fully Vaccinated - By Age Group” chart on the VDH “COVID-19 Vaccine Demographics” dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-17 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 43.5, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7619", "background": "In Virginia, younger age groups have recently made up a growing share of overall vaccinations — see slide 11 in the 28 July COVID Impact report. However, the overall number of new daily vaccinations has recently plateaued at a low of about 12k. As of 30 July, 35.8% of the 12-15 age group in Virginia is fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? This will resolve as the percentage of 12-15 year old Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of 1 October 2021. This value will be accessed on the “Percent of the Population Fully Vaccinated - By Age Group” chart on the VDH “COVID-19 Vaccine Demographics” dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-17 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 35.8, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?", "id": "M7621", "background": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where influenza-like illness (ILI) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. According to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system. The 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the mildest since at least 2009-2010, which is thought to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab here. The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season. What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? This will resolve on 1 June 2022 as the weekly peak percent ILI during the 2021-2022 flu season in Virginia as reported by the VDH Influenza Surveillance unit. If the peak percent ILI exceeds 30%, this resolves as “>30”. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7622", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might be. What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 5900, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?", "id": "M7623", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might occur. When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur? This question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-09-30", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7624", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might be. What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH “Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 135, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?", "id": "M7625", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might occur. When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? This question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH “Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-09-30", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7626", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might be. What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 deaths on the VDH “Number of Deaths by Date of Death” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 84, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?", "id": "M7627", "background": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing Delta-driven wave might occur. When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur? This question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 deaths on the VDH “Number of Deaths by Date of Death” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. 3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2021-09-30", "min": "2021-08-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?", "id": "M7628", "background": "There are a total of 15 public four-year institutions in Virginia. They are as follows: Christopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, UVA’s College at Wise, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Tech, Virginia State University, William & Mary. According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, as of 30 July there are 13 of Virginia’s 15 public four-year institutions that are requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year. They are: Christopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (“Virginia Tech’), William & Mary. This means that as of 30 July, UVA’s College at Wise and Virginia State University are not requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year. How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year? This will resolve on the basis of the latest update of the list compiled by The Chronicle of Higher Education of Virginia’s four-year colleges requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 15, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Virginia not announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7629", "background": "As of 31 July, two states in the U.S. — California and New York — have announced vaccine mandates for their state workforces. Only 26 July California announced it is requiring all state workers to “show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly” and on 28 July New York announced it is requiring all state workers to “get vaccinated, and those who do not will be required to be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.”. Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether an announcement is made by Virginia’s state government before 1 October that all Virginian state workers will need to be vaccinated or alternatively get tested for COVID-19 on a regular basis.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-05 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7629", "background": "As of 31 July, two states in the U.S. — California and New York — have announced vaccine mandates for their state workforces. Only 26 July California announced it is requiring all state workers to “show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly” and on 28 July New York announced it is requiring all state workers to “get vaccinated, and those who do not will be required to be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.”. Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether an announcement is made by Virginia’s state government before 1 October that all Virginian state workers will need to be vaccinated or alternatively get tested for COVID-19 on a regular basis.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-05 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "id": "M7632", "background": "Previous question about the Women's 100m final with some context on Women's sprinting and the pandemic. The Women's 100m final in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics was, despite a -0.6m/s headwind, extremely fast: 6 atheletes ran sub-11, Jamaica swept the medals with three times well under 10.8s, and Elaine Thompson-Herah ran the second-fastest time in history at 10.61. Although the women's world record in the 200m is thought by many to be unassailable as, like the 100m record, it was set by Florence \"Flo-Jo\" Griffith-Joyner, this year's 200m race could come close. What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Women's 200m final for the 2020 Olympics.", "publish_time": "2021-08-01 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-03 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": { "max": 22.3, "min": 21.34, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID not be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7635", "background": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 expired on 30 June 2021. As such, as of 1 July 2021 “all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”. According to a Washington Post article, Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.” However, since then COVID-19 cases have risen quickly as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued. Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? This will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia announces a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7635", "background": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 expired on 30 June 2021. As such, as of 1 July 2021 “all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”. According to a Washington Post article, Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.” However, since then COVID-19 cases have risen quickly as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued. Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? This will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia announces a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools not be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7636", "background": "The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia expired on 25 July 2021. This Public Health Order by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Schools in Virginia currently have the “ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,” though Virginia guidance still “strongly recommends” indoor masking requirements at schools. Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? This will resolve positive if Virginia’s State Health Commissioner announces a new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions before 1 October 2021. An indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools may also be announced as part of a State of Emergency declared by the governor of Virginia for this to resolve positive. Such a mandate should apply to at least all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Exceptions similar to those of the last order — namely, allowances for eating/drinking — can be made. 8 August clarification: A new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions may also be announced by the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) for this to resolve positive. Moreover, a new statewide indoor school mask mandate can exempt vaccinated individuals for this to resolve positive. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 21:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "id": "M7636", "background": "The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia expired on 25 July 2021. This Public Health Order by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Schools in Virginia currently have the “ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,” though Virginia guidance still “strongly recommends” indoor masking requirements at schools. Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? This will resolve positive if Virginia’s State Health Commissioner announces a new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions before 1 October 2021. An indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools may also be announced as part of a State of Emergency declared by the governor of Virginia for this to resolve positive. Such a mandate should apply to at least all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Exceptions similar to those of the last order — namely, allowances for eating/drinking — can be made. 8 August clarification: A new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions may also be announced by the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) for this to resolve positive. Moreover, a new statewide indoor school mask mandate can exempt vaccinated individuals for this to resolve positive. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 21:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) remain below 4% until 31 December 2021?", "id": "M7641", "background": "Brexit and COVID-19 are increasing fiscal and commercial operating costs, including labour, goods, energy and transport. When combined with the UK Government's increased cost of servicing fiscal debt and the rising likelihood of interest rate increases, there is an increasing market expectation of rising UK inflation with CPIH standing at 2.4% as at June 2021, up 1.6 percentage points from 0.8% in December 2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpr…). Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? The UK Office for National Statistics will report December 2021's value for UK CPIH by February 2022. If this value (or any prior values in 2021) is more than 4% then the question will resolve YES, otherwise the question will resolve NO. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 15:40:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?", "id": "M7641", "background": "Brexit and COVID-19 are increasing fiscal and commercial operating costs, including labour, goods, energy and transport. When combined with the UK Government's increased cost of servicing fiscal debt and the rising likelihood of interest rate increases, there is an increasing market expectation of rising UK inflation with CPIH standing at 2.4% as at June 2021, up 1.6 percentage points from 0.8% in December 2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpr…). Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? The UK Office for National Statistics will report December 2021's value for UK CPIH by February 2022. If this value (or any prior values in 2021) is more than 4% then the question will resolve YES, otherwise the question will resolve NO. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 15:40:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo no longer be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "id": "M7643", "background": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women since December 2020. An independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was announced on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and found the following: We...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment. Following the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats called on Cuomo to resign, but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo appeared to decline to resign. Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly impeachment inquiry. Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. Also see this previous question by user johnnycaffeine. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 18:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-10 16:15:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "id": "M7643", "background": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women since December 2020. An independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was announced on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and found the following: We...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment. Following the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats called on Cuomo to resign, but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo appeared to decline to resign. Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly impeachment inquiry. Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. Also see this previous question by user johnnycaffeine. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-03 18:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-10 16:15:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will no state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?", "id": "M7644", "background": "Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser \"dazzling,\" and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons. Space Threat Assessment 2021 Some of these ASAT weapons may produce orbital debris or \"space junk\" that remains in orbit for prolonged periods of time. This is a major concern as the amount of objects in Earth's orbit and the complexity of space traffic management increase. Union of Concerned Scientists Space Debris Fact Sheet For example, a January 2007 kinetic ASAT test conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. 2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite Test Fact Sheet, Secure World Foundation India's 2019 Mission Shakti is another example. See, e.g. \"NASA Says Debris From India’s Antisatellite Test Puts Space Station at Risk\". As both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community. This question asks whether an ASAT test by any state actor will create more than one piece of space debris between the launch of this question and the question closing date, as reported by credible news sources or research institutes. Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023? This question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP, NYT, etc.) or a credible non-profit organization or research center (e.g. Center for Strategic International Studies, Aerospace Corporation) concludes that an ASAT test conducted by a state actor resulted in more than one piece of space debris between 2021-08-06 and 2023-01-01. Both the 2007 Chinese ASAT test and the 2019 Indian ASAT test would have resolved positively. See China ASAT NYT article and India ASAT NYT article", "publish_time": "2021-08-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-16 00:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Technology – Weapons", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?", "id": "M7644", "background": "Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser \"dazzling,\" and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons. Space Threat Assessment 2021 Some of these ASAT weapons may produce orbital debris or \"space junk\" that remains in orbit for prolonged periods of time. This is a major concern as the amount of objects in Earth's orbit and the complexity of space traffic management increase. Union of Concerned Scientists Space Debris Fact Sheet For example, a January 2007 kinetic ASAT test conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. 2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite Test Fact Sheet, Secure World Foundation India's 2019 Mission Shakti is another example. See, e.g. \"NASA Says Debris From India’s Antisatellite Test Puts Space Station at Risk\". As both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community. This question asks whether an ASAT test by any state actor will create more than one piece of space debris between the launch of this question and the question closing date, as reported by credible news sources or research institutes. Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023? This question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP, NYT, etc.) or a credible non-profit organization or research center (e.g. Center for Strategic International Studies, Aerospace Corporation) concludes that an ASAT test conducted by a state actor resulted in more than one piece of space debris between 2021-08-06 and 2023-01-01. Both the 2007 Chinese ASAT test and the 2019 Indian ASAT test would have resolved positively. See China ASAT NYT article and India ASAT NYT article", "publish_time": "2021-08-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-16 00:30:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Space", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Technology – Weapons", "Technology – Space" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Taliban not capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?", "id": "M7663", "background": "Since the withdrawal of nearly all American military forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged in force and the war in Afghanistan has entered \"a new, deadlier, and more destructive phase.\" In June and July, the Taliban seized large rural areas of the country, and from there began to threaten larger cities. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, was the first to fall on August 6th, followed on August 7th by Jowzjan's capital, Sheberghan. As of that date, there was heavy fighting in Helmand's capital Laskargah and in Herat city, all of which, like Kandahar, were effectively besieged. The United States and Britain have both urged any remaining citizens to leave immediately in the face of Taliban atrocities and the deteriorating security situation. According to the Long War Journal, The Taliban offensive is tying up key Afghan military assets, including its air force, Commandos and Special Forces. These military assets have proven to be most effective at keeping the Taliban from seizing cities. These units are being ground down by continual fighting. By attacking multiple cities at the same time, the Taliban is forcing the Afghan military to disperse its forces and water down its combat power. Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan? (= 13:26 GMT on April 1st, 2022) Fine print Related question: Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?", "publish_time": "2021-08-12 17:20:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 22:25:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?", "id": "M7663", "background": "Since the withdrawal of nearly all American military forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged in force and the war in Afghanistan has entered \"a new, deadlier, and more destructive phase.\" In June and July, the Taliban seized large rural areas of the country, and from there began to threaten larger cities. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, was the first to fall on August 6th, followed on August 7th by Jowzjan's capital, Sheberghan. As of that date, there was heavy fighting in Helmand's capital Laskargah and in Herat city, all of which, like Kandahar, were effectively besieged. The United States and Britain have both urged any remaining citizens to leave immediately in the face of Taliban atrocities and the deteriorating security situation. According to the Long War Journal, The Taliban offensive is tying up key Afghan military assets, including its air force, Commandos and Special Forces. These military assets have proven to be most effective at keeping the Taliban from seizing cities. These units are being ground down by continual fighting. By attacking multiple cities at the same time, the Taliban is forcing the Afghan military to disperse its forces and water down its combat power. Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan? (= 13:26 GMT on April 1st, 2022) Fine print Related question: Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?", "publish_time": "2021-08-12 17:20:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-12 22:25:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?", "id": "M7681", "background": "Nationwide, vaccine administration has increased by 14.4% over the last two weeks (23 July - 6 August), with states hardest hit by the ongoing delta-driven wave seeing some of the largest increases in vaccine uptake. In Virginia, the 7-day moving average of daily doses administered 13,972 for 6 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August? This will resolve on the basis of the \"Average Daily Doses Administered\" value for 21 August, which will be accessed via the VDH vaccine summary dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?", "id": "M7682", "background": "The U.S. CDC has recently updated its mask-wearing guidance in response to the spread of the delta variant. The ultimate extent to which the public will again resume mask-wearing is yet to be determined. COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public is 48.74% as of 8 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the percentage of Virginians who say they wear masks in public as of 21 August. This will be according to COVIDcast's \"People Wearing Masks Summary\".", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?", "id": "M7683", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing delta-driven wave. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the number of confirmed and pending COVID-19 hospitalizations will increase in Virginia over the coming weeks. As of 10 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 751. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 21 August according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 2500, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?", "id": "M7684", "background": "As a consequence of the Delta variant surge, there is increased testing occurring across Virginia. A key uncertainty is whether the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered in Virginia will keep pace with the number of new cases — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 6 August, the 7-day moving average of number of the percent positivity by lab report date was 7.5%. What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the \"All Health Districts Current 7-Day Positivity Rate PCR Only\" on the VDH testing dashboard as of 21 August. If the positivity rate exceeds 30%, then this resolves as \">30\"", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?", "id": "M7685", "background": "There is uncertainty as to how the case-to-hospitalization rate might evolve as the delta-driven wave in Virginia progresses. On the one hand, there has been continued progress in vaccine uptake and vaccines are very effective in preventing cases from progressing into hospitalizations. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the delta variant causes more severe disease — potentially leading to more hospitalizations, particularly among unvaccinated people. The case-to-hospitalization rate here is calculated by dividing the total number of cases that are reported over a 7-day period from the total number of hospitalizations that are reported over a 7-day period eight days later. For example: the total number of new confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases between 1 June and 7 June (inclusive) was 1,449, and the total number of new confirmed+probable hospitalizations reported eight days later between 9 June and 15 June was 65. This gives a case-to-hospitalization rate of ~4.5% (65/1449 * 100). What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August? This will resolve on the basis of the total number of confirmed+probable cases by date of symptom onset reported between 15 and 21 August (inclusive) divided from the total number of confirmed+probable hospitalizations by date of hospital admission reported between 23 August and 29 August (inclusive). Case and hospitalization numbers are taken from the relevant VDH dashboard and will be accessed 6 September. If the case-to-hospitalization rate exceeds 20%, then this resolves as \">20\"", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be percentage of population will indicate they are \"vaccine accepting\" in Virginia on 21 August?", "id": "M7686", "background": "Increasing the level of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in Virginia is key to slowing the rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state and lowering levels of morbidity and mortality. The University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute is tracking the extent of vaccine acceptance in Virginia here. It adjusts vaccine acceptance data from COVIDcast to correct for biases. COVIDcast in turn gets its data from surveys of Facebook users who “say they have already received a COVID vaccine, have an appointment to receive a COVID vaccine, or would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ choose to be vaccinated if a COVID vaccine were offered to them today.” The most recent estimate of the percentage of Virginians that are “Vaccine Accepting” is 79.64% as of 5 August. What will be percentage of population will indicate they are \"vaccine accepting\" in Virginia on 21 August? This resolves as the percentage of Virginians who are \"Vaccine Accepting\" as of 21 August under the \"Vaccinated vs Vaccine Accepting\" chart on UVA's COVID-19 VaxStat Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?", "id": "M7687", "background": "The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slide 8 to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. In the UVA slide deck dated 6 August, 25 local health districts were described as being \"in surge.\" How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August? This will resolve based on the number of local health districts described as being \"in surge\" in the UVA slide deck dated 20 August, which will be accessed here.", "publish_time": "2021-08-11 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 1" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Aubrey de Grey not be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?", "id": "M7688", "background": "From Statnews, Aubrey de Grey, the jet-setting gerontologist who co-founded the SENS Research Foundation to discover ways to reverse the ravages of aging, has been placed on leave by the foundation after being accused of sexual harassment by two prominent entrepreneurs in the field of healthy life span extension. On Tuesday night, Laura Deming, the 27-year-old founder of the Longevity Fund, and Celine Halioua, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech startup developing drugs to help dogs live longer, posted accounts on their blogs and to Twitter of experiences they had with de Grey as young scientists trying to gain a foothold in the field. De Grey denied the allegations in a post on Facebook, and SENS issued a statement saying he had been placed on leave pending the outcome of an investigation. Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022? This question resolves positively if some official statement is made by the SENS Research Foundation indicating that Aubrey de Grey is terminated, or if Aubrey de Grey voluntarily resigns from the SENS Research Foundation. If neither happen by January 1st 2022, then this question resolves negatively. For the purpose of this question, Aubrey de Grey is said to be \"terminated\" if the staff of SENS indicate that they are separating indefinitely from him. If he merely leaves for a short period of time, with the intention to return, this question should not resolve positively.", "publish_time": "2021-08-12 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Human Sciences – Longevity" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?", "id": "M7688", "background": "From Statnews, Aubrey de Grey, the jet-setting gerontologist who co-founded the SENS Research Foundation to discover ways to reverse the ravages of aging, has been placed on leave by the foundation after being accused of sexual harassment by two prominent entrepreneurs in the field of healthy life span extension. On Tuesday night, Laura Deming, the 27-year-old founder of the Longevity Fund, and Celine Halioua, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech startup developing drugs to help dogs live longer, posted accounts on their blogs and to Twitter of experiences they had with de Grey as young scientists trying to gain a foothold in the field. De Grey denied the allegations in a post on Facebook, and SENS issued a statement saying he had been placed on leave pending the outcome of an investigation. Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022? This question resolves positively if some official statement is made by the SENS Research Foundation indicating that Aubrey de Grey is terminated, or if Aubrey de Grey voluntarily resigns from the SENS Research Foundation. If neither happen by January 1st 2022, then this question resolves negatively. For the purpose of this question, Aubrey de Grey is said to be \"terminated\" if the staff of SENS indicate that they are separating indefinitely from him. If he merely leaves for a short period of time, with the intention to return, this question should not resolve positively.", "publish_time": "2021-08-12 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Human Sciences – Longevity" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the Taliban take Kabul?", "id": "M7725", "background": "See this previous question. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban have taken huge areas of Afghanistan. US intelligence officials warned that Kabul could fall within 90 days. When will the Taliban take Kabul? This resolves when credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul. It resolves to >30 Dec 2022 if this does not happen by then.", "publish_time": "2021-08-13 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-12-30", "min": "2021-08-12", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?", "id": "M7733", "background": "Migrant crossings at the southern border have been the highest in at least the last decade in recent months. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 180,034 border encounters at the southwest land border in May, the largest number reported since April in 2000. CBP defines land border encounters as follows: US Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible Volumes, and Title 42 Expulsions by Fiscal Year (FY) More information on these encounter types can be found at the CBP website. In March of 2020 the reporting methodology changed to include Title 42 expulsions due to the issuance of a new order from the CDC. Due to COVID-19 and public health concerns, the new order granted increased authority to border officials to expel immigrants who did not have prior authorization for entry. Previously the metric appeared to have tracked apprehensions and inadmissibles (see an archive of the CBP page and data from January of 2020 here). How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021? The question will resolve as the total number of \"Southwest Land Border Encounters\" as reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021. Previous questions on this subject: May 2021, July 2021.", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-17 18:32:33+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US" ], "choices": { "max": 2000000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, stay until Kabul is captured by the Taliban?", "id": "M7734", "background": "From the Israel National News on April 4th, 2021, The man who has been known as the last Jew in Afghanistan for well over a decade is leaving for Israel, fearing that the U.S. military’s promise to leave the country will leave a vacuum to be filled with radical groups such as the Taliban. “I will watch on TV in Israel to find out what will happen in Afghanistan,” Zabulon Simantov told Arab News on Sunday. Simantov, 61, said he will leave after this year’s High Holidays season in the fall. His wife, a Jew from Tajikistan, and their two daughters have lived in Israel since 1998. But Simantov has stayed in his native Afghanistan to tend to its lone synagogue, located in the capital Kabul, through decades of violence and political turmoil, including a period of Taliban rule and the country’s war with the U.S. Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban? Suppose before January 1st, 2023, the Taliban is widely reported to have captured Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and in particular, the presidential palace. Then, this question resolves positively if Zablon Simintov is reported to be residing in some nation other than Afghanistan. If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it reports negatively. In the event that the Metaculus admins do not know the whereabouts of Zablon Simintov at the time of Kabul's capture, then the resolution will be pending until this information is known. If the Taliban does not capture Kabul before January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-15 01:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?", "id": "M7734", "background": "From the Israel National News on April 4th, 2021, The man who has been known as the last Jew in Afghanistan for well over a decade is leaving for Israel, fearing that the U.S. military’s promise to leave the country will leave a vacuum to be filled with radical groups such as the Taliban. “I will watch on TV in Israel to find out what will happen in Afghanistan,” Zabulon Simantov told Arab News on Sunday. Simantov, 61, said he will leave after this year’s High Holidays season in the fall. His wife, a Jew from Tajikistan, and their two daughters have lived in Israel since 1998. But Simantov has stayed in his native Afghanistan to tend to its lone synagogue, located in the capital Kabul, through decades of violence and political turmoil, including a period of Taliban rule and the country’s war with the U.S. Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban? Suppose before January 1st, 2023, the Taliban is widely reported to have captured Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and in particular, the presidential palace. Then, this question resolves positively if Zablon Simintov is reported to be residing in some nation other than Afghanistan. If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it reports negatively. In the event that the Metaculus admins do not know the whereabouts of Zablon Simintov at the time of Kabul's capture, then the resolution will be pending until this information is known. If the Taliban does not capture Kabul before January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-15 01:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-17 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will less than 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "id": "M7737", "background": "As of 2021-08-13, several nations are evacuating their diplomats from Kabul, Afghanistan, as Taliban forces take control of territory. There is precedent for less-than-successful evacuation of US diplomatic staff from dangerous environments. Will the US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul be unsuccessful? Resolves positively if there are credible, mainstream reports of at least 2 US diplomatic staff captured, killed or left behind within 1 week of official announcement that the US has ceased efforts to evacuate diplomatic staff from Kabul. The ceased effort must be part of an overall withdrawal, so an evacuation ceased because the US changes course and decides maintain a diplomatic presence would resolve ambiguous. For the purposes of the resolution, Marine security guards count as diplomatic staff. All other US citizens not credibly affiliated with diplomatic efforts, including regular military personnel, do not count. Non-US citizens such as Afghani translators likewise do not count, regardless of degree of involvement with US. Resolves ambiguous if evacuation is credibly still underway or inapplicable at resolve date.", "publish_time": "2021-08-14 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-30 06:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "id": "M7737", "background": "As of 2021-08-13, several nations are evacuating their diplomats from Kabul, Afghanistan, as Taliban forces take control of territory. There is precedent for less-than-successful evacuation of US diplomatic staff from dangerous environments. Will the US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul be unsuccessful? Resolves positively if there are credible, mainstream reports of at least 2 US diplomatic staff captured, killed or left behind within 1 week of official announcement that the US has ceased efforts to evacuate diplomatic staff from Kabul. The ceased effort must be part of an overall withdrawal, so an evacuation ceased because the US changes course and decides maintain a diplomatic presence would resolve ambiguous. For the purposes of the resolution, Marine security guards count as diplomatic staff. All other US citizens not credibly affiliated with diplomatic efforts, including regular military personnel, do not count. Non-US citizens such as Afghani translators likewise do not count, regardless of degree of involvement with US. Resolves ambiguous if evacuation is credibly still underway or inapplicable at resolve date.", "publish_time": "2021-08-14 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-30 06:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many members will the next Bundestag have?", "id": "M7739", "background": "Related question on Metaculus: Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? The German electoral system sets the size of the Bundestag (national parliament) to at least 598 members. Due to the peculiarities of the voting system, especially the split between first vote (first past the post) and second vote (proportional representation), the 5% electoral threshold and split votes resulting in excess mandates, the size of the next Bundestag is to be projected to have up to 1000 members (link in German, translation below) Next Bundestag could have more than 1,000 deputies Since the 2017 election, the Bundestag has had 709 members - more than ever before. But even this number could be significantly exceeded after the vote in September. Berlin (dpa) - The next Bundestag could be a good 1000 MPs strong, according to calculations by electoral law expert Robert Vehrkamp. \"The range of plausibly possible Bundestag sizes runs from about 650 to more than 1,000, and we can't rule that out,\" the Bertelsmann Stiftung expert told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur in Berlin. He is also a member of the commission set up by the Bundestag to reform electoral law and modernize parliamentary work. The standard size of the Bundestag is 598 seats. Since the 2017 election, it has 709 deputies - more than ever before. Although the CDU/CSU and SPD pushed through an amendment to the electoral law last October, experts believe that this will hardly lead to the hoped-for reduction in the size of parliament. […] According to Vehrkamp's presentation, it is not possible to make an accurate prediction about the size of the next Bundestag. \"What is often overlooked in the discussion: It depends not only on the second vote result. It depends at least as much on vote splitting how many overhang mandates there will be. And splitting behavior is even more incalculable than the allocation of second votes.\" For example, the Greens could get about twice as many second votes as in the 2017 election. \"But we don't know what the splitting behavior of Green voters will look like then.\" If about 20 percent of them were to give their first vote to the CDU/CSU - for old ties, for example - that would have \"an enormous leverage effect,\" Vehrkamp said. \"Then, depending on the scenario, you're quickly at 880, 950 or, in extreme cases, even over 1,000 mandates. It doesn't have to happen that way, but it is possible. The current electoral law is a real game of vabanques with regard to the size of the Bundestag.\" Vehrkamp calculated the size of the Bundestag from the ARD \"Deutschlandtrend\" of August 5 (CDU/CSU: 27 percent, Greens: 19, SPD: 18, FDP: 12, AfD: 10, Left: 6) with three different splitting scenarios. Depending on the scenario, it comes to 695, 851 or 978 deputies. […] How many members will the next Bundestag have? The question will resolve with the number of members listed on the website of the German Bundestag following the final results of the September 26, 2021 federal elections. If no Bundestag is formed following the elections, the question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-08-16 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-26 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Elections – European" ], "choices": { "max": 1200, "min": 598, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?", "id": "M7747", "background": "The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slide 8 to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. In the UVA slide deck dated 13 August, 33 local health districts were described as being \"in surge.\" How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August? This will resolve based on the number of local health districts described as being \"in surge\" in the UVA slide deck dated 27 August, which will be accessed here.", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of population will indicate they are \"vaccine accepting\" in Virginia on 28 August?", "id": "M7748", "background": "Increasing the level of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in Virginia is key to slowing the rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state and lowering levels of morbidity and mortality. The University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute is tracking the extent of vaccine acceptance in Virginia here. It adjusts vaccine acceptance data from COVIDcast to correct for biases. COVIDcast in turn gets its data from surveys of Facebook users who “say they have already received a COVID vaccine, have an appointment to receive a COVID vaccine, or would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ choose to be vaccinated if a COVID vaccine were offered to them today.” The most recent estimate of the percentage of Virginians that are “Vaccine Accepting” is 77.16% as of 12 August. What will be the percentage of population will indicate they are \"vaccine accepting\" in Virginia on 28 August? This resolves as the percentage of Virginians who are \"Vaccine Accepting\" as of 28 August under the \"Vaccinated vs Vaccine Accepting\" chart on UVA's COVID-19 VaxStat Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?", "id": "M7751", "background": "There is uncertainty as to how the case-to-hospitalization rate might evolve as the delta-driven wave in Virginia progresses. On the one hand, there has been continued progress in vaccine uptake and vaccines are very effective in preventing cases from progressing into hospitalizations. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the delta variant causes more severe disease — potentially leading to more hospitalizations, particularly among unvaccinated people. The case-to-hospitalization rate here is calculated by dividing the total number of cases that are reported over a 7-day period from the total number of hospitalizations that are reported over a 7-day period eight days later. For example: the total number of new confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases between 1 June and 7 June (inclusive) was 1,449, and the total number of new confirmed+probable hospitalizations reported eight days later between 9 June and 15 June was 65. This gives a case-to-hospitalization rate of ~4.5% (65/1449 * 100). What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August? This will resolve on the basis of the total number of confirmed+probable cases by date of symptom onset reported between 22 and 28 August (inclusive) divided from the total number of confirmed+probable hospitalizations by date of hospital admission reported between 31 August and 6 September (inclusive). Case and hospitalization numbers are taken from the relevant VDH dashboard and will be accessed 13 September. If the case-to-hospitalization rate exceeds 20%, then this resolves as \">20\"", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?", "id": "M7752", "background": "As a consequence of the Delta variant surge, there is increased testing occurring across Virginia. A key uncertainty is whether the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered in Virginia will keep pace with the number of new cases — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 13 August, the 7-day moving average of number of the percent positivity by lab report date was 8.5%. What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the \"All Health Districts Current 7-Day Positivity Rate PCR Only\" on the VDH testing dashboard as of 28 August. If the positivity rate exceeds 30%, then this resolves as \">30\"", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?", "id": "M7753", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing delta-driven wave. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the number of confirmed and pending COVID-19 hospitalizations will increase in Virginia over the coming weeks. As of 17 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 1073. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 28 August according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 2500, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?", "id": "M7754", "background": "The U.S. CDC has recently updated its mask-wearing guidance in response to the spread of the delta variant. The ultimate extent to which the public will again resume mask-wearing is yet to be determined. COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public is 55.09% as of 8 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the percentage of Virginians who say they wear masks in public as of 28 August. This will be according to COVIDcast's \"People Wearing Masks Summary\".", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?", "id": "M7755", "background": "Nationwide, vaccine administration has increased by 14.4% over the last two weeks (23 July - 6 August), with states hardest hit by the ongoing delta-driven wave seeing some of the largest increases in vaccine uptake. In Virginia, the 7-day moving average of daily doses administered 14,625 for 13 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August? This will resolve on the basis of the \"Average Daily Doses Administered\" value for 28 August, which will be accessed via the VDH vaccine summary dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-18 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-22 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 2" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Sci-Hub not be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7774", "background": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. (about the order, Reddit thread with updates). The hearing has been postponed multiple times and will be now be held on August, 23rd. (source) Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021? If new papers will be reported or shown to be uploaded again in the Sci-Hub database before the end of the year, this question will resolve positively. New papers being uploaded to a fork or copied version of SciHub is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-08-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 20:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Publishing" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7774", "background": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. (about the order, Reddit thread with updates). The hearing has been postponed multiple times and will be now be held on August, 23rd. (source) Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021? If new papers will be reported or shown to be uploaded again in the Sci-Hub database before the end of the year, this question will resolve positively. New papers being uploaded to a fork or copied version of SciHub is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-08-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 20:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Industry – Publishing" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?", "id": "M7788", "background": "In August 2021, Australia reached a new peak in daily confirmed new Covid-19 cases, surpassing its previous peak set in August 2020. As of 19 August 2021, Australia's two biggest cities and its capital territory are in lockdown and several other states and regions have recently emerged from their own lockdowns. International travel remains heavily restricted, and the number of travellers allowed into the country has been halved from 6,370 to 3,070 per week. Under current government policy, vaccination rates will determine when international travel restrictions are loosened and when lockdowns become less likely. At the end of July 2021, the Australian National Cabinet announced a 'Phase B' target of 70% of the eligible population fully vaccinated, and a 'Phase C' target of 80%. In Phase C, the government seeks to \"minimise cases without lockdowns\", enact only \"highly targeted lockdowns\", \"abolish caps on returning vaccinated Australians\", \"lift all restrictions on outbound travel for vaccinated Australians\" and \"allow increased capped entry of student, economic, and humanitarian visa holders\", among other relaxations in restrictions. As of August 19 2021, just over 28% of the eligible population (those aged at least 16) have been fully vaccinated. According to The Guardian, the 80% national target will be reached by the end of November if the the rate of new vaccinations remains fixed at its rate over the past 7 days. However, the experience of other countries has shown that this rate can slow considerably before reaching 80% of the adult population. For a particular state or territory to enter 'Phase C', the 80% target must be reached in that state or territory as well as in the country as a whole. This question therefore asks about when target will be reached in Australia as a whole as well as in at least half of its states and territories. When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? For the predicted event to occur, both of the following two conditions must be met: At least 80% of the national population aged at least 16 is considered to be fully vaccinated At least 4 out of the 8 states and territories have each individually met the 80% target The Australian Government's Daily Vaccine Rollout Update will be used to determine when this event occurs. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-29 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-12 18:56:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2023-12-31", "min": "2021-09-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?", "id": "M7806", "background": "Mask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplanes, either due to the carrier (airplane operator) or due to government mandates. When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? Resolves positively when government mask mandates are removed from ordinary airplane travelers (not e.g., pilots), AND at least 3 large carriers remove their mandates as well. Large carriers are those in the Group III, of which there are 18 currently. Mandates that are removed only for vaccinated people DO NOT count for the purpose of resolution. They must be removed for any normal traveler regardless of prior disease history and vaccination status. Mandates NO NOT have to be justified by COVID-19. It may be for any reason.", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": "2061-08-21", "min": "2021-08-22", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?", "id": "M7822", "background": "Nationwide, vaccine administration has continued to increase over the past month, with the current administration rate of about 854,000 doses per day on average as of 23 August, 2021. With the recent FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine, there are expectations of increased inoculation rates and potential vaccine mandates. In Virginia, the 7-day moving average of daily doses administered is 14,472 for 19 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September? This will resolve on the basis of the \"Average Daily Doses Administered\" value for 18 September, which will be accessed via the VDH vaccine summary dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?", "id": "M7823", "background": "The U.S. CDC has recently updated its mask-wearing guidance in response to the spread of the delta variant. The ultimate extent to which the public will again resume mask-wearing is yet to be determined. COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public is 59.55% as of 21 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the percentage of Virginians who say they wear masks in public as of 11 September. This will be according to COVIDcast's \"People Wearing Masks Summary\".", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?", "id": "M7824", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing delta-driven wave. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the number of confirmed and pending COVID-19 hospitalizations will increase in Virginia over the coming weeks. As of 24 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 1325. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 11 September according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 2500, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?", "id": "M7825", "background": "As a consequence of the Delta variant surge, there is increased testing occurring across Virginia. A key uncertainty is whether the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered in Virginia will keep pace with the number of new cases — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 20 August, the 7-day moving average of number of the percent positivity by lab report date was 9.7%. What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the \"All Health Districts Current 7-Day Positivity Rate PCR Only\" on the VDH testing dashboard as of 11 September. If the positivity rate exceeds 30%, then this resolves as \">30\"", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?", "id": "M7826", "background": "As schools reopen in the state of Virginia, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam and State Health Commissioner Dr. Norm Oliver have issued a new public health order that mandates universal masking in all K-12 schools. While vaccinations for children under 12 is yet to be approved, most schools are scheduled to open for in-person classes in the coming weeks. Virginia Department of Health tracks outbreaks by different settings. At least 2 cases are required to classify an outbreak. One of the settings being tracked is K-12, which includes public and private primary and secondary schools teaching kindergarten through 12th grade. For the week of 8/15-8/21, a total of 12 outbreaks were notified to VDH in the K-12 setting. At its peak so far, there were 25 K-12 outbreaks notified to VDH in the week of 1/24-1/30 of 2021. What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11? The question will resolve as the number of outbreaks notified to VDH for the week of 9/5-9/11 as reported by the Outbreaks tab in COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted on 10 September?", "id": "M7827", "background": "The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slide 8 to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. In the UVA slide deck posted 20 August, 33 local health districts were described as being \"in surge.\" How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted on 10 September? This will resolve based on the number of local health districts described as being \"in surge\" in the UVA slide deck posted 10 September, which will be accessed here.", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?", "id": "M7830", "background": "With the opening of schools and the FDA full approval of the Pfizer vaccine, there is increased attention on vaccine eligibility for kids age 5 to 11. Nationally, nearly 28 millions kids are in this age group. Virginia Department of Health tracks vaccine uptake by different age groups. As of 24 August, 55.3% of those aged 12-17 have received at least one dose. What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021? This will be resolved as the percent of the population vaccinated with at least one dose for 5-11 age group, in the VDH COVID-19 vaccine demographics dashboard as of January 1st, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-08-25 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-08-29 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 3", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?", "id": "M7846", "background": "The University of California at Berkeley has an undergraduate population of 31,780 students. The school had operated via remote instruction from March 2020, through to the start of the Fall 2021 semester (August 25th, 2021). Classes of <200 students are now permitted to be held in person, and approximately 90% of classes are being held in person. Masks are mandatory in all buildings, and vaccination is required, except for religious and medical exemptions. Free testing is provided by university health services and is required weekly, except for 180 days following complete vaccination.. How many Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid-19 this semester through the university health services testing? How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester? The question will resolve as the number of positive tests attributed to undergraduate students on the University Health Services dashboard from August 25th, 2021 (the start of classes) through December 17th, 2021 (the end of Fall semester). If the dashboard does not report this data on December 18th, the question will resolve ambigously.", "publish_time": "2021-10-03 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 20:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 1000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Magdalena Andersson not be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?", "id": "M7848", "background": "The Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden, usually referred to as Social Democrats, is a social-democratic political party in Sweden founded in 1889, the SAP is the country's oldest and currently largest party, getting 28.3% of the popular vote in the 2018 election. The party has been heading the government since 2014 under Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, who has been the party leader since 2012. During the 2021 Swedish governmental crisis, Löfven stepped down as Prime Minister on June 28th, but was re-elected by the Riksdag 9 days later. On August 22 2021, during his yearly summer speech, Löfven announced that he would step down as party leader and that his successor would be chosen at the party congress in November of 2021. Magdalena Andersson is the current Minister of Finance and is widely considered as one of the favorites to be the next party leader (and if so, probably the next Prime Minister as well if she is tolerated by the Riksdag). Sweden has its next general election in September of 2022. Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party? This question resolves positively if Magdalena Andersson becomes the next party leader of the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden as reported by at least 5 credible sources, where at least 2 are written in English. If the next party leader is an interim leader and this is clearly stated in 5 credible sources then this question should remain open. (Synonyms to \"interim leader\" also counts as \"clearly stated\"). If the next party leader is chosen before the Social Democratic party congress which takes place 3-7 November of 2021, then this question should retroactively close 24 hours before the new leader was chosen. The question does not depend on when the next party leader is chosen but if no new party leader is chosen before 2030 then this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-09-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?", "id": "M7848", "background": "The Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden, usually referred to as Social Democrats, is a social-democratic political party in Sweden founded in 1889, the SAP is the country's oldest and currently largest party, getting 28.3% of the popular vote in the 2018 election. The party has been heading the government since 2014 under Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, who has been the party leader since 2012. During the 2021 Swedish governmental crisis, Löfven stepped down as Prime Minister on June 28th, but was re-elected by the Riksdag 9 days later. On August 22 2021, during his yearly summer speech, Löfven announced that he would step down as party leader and that his successor would be chosen at the party congress in November of 2021. Magdalena Andersson is the current Minister of Finance and is widely considered as one of the favorites to be the next party leader (and if so, probably the next Prime Minister as well if she is tolerated by the Riksdag). Sweden has its next general election in September of 2022. Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party? This question resolves positively if Magdalena Andersson becomes the next party leader of the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden as reported by at least 5 credible sources, where at least 2 are written in English. If the next party leader is an interim leader and this is clearly stated in 5 credible sources then this question should remain open. (Synonyms to \"interim leader\" also counts as \"clearly stated\"). If the next party leader is chosen before the Social Democratic party congress which takes place 3-7 November of 2021, then this question should retroactively close 24 hours before the new leader was chosen. The question does not depend on when the next party leader is chosen but if no new party leader is chosen before 2030 then this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-09-03 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-31 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?", "id": "M7864", "background": "As schools reopen in the state of Virginia, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam and State Health Commissioner Dr. Norm Oliver have issued a new public health order that mandates universal masking in all K-12 schools. While vaccinations for children under 12 is yet to be approved, most schools are scheduled to open for in-person classes in the coming weeks. Virginia Department of Health tracks outbreaks by different settings. At least 2 cases are required to classify an outbreak. One of the settings being tracked is K-12, which includes public and private primary and secondary schools teaching kindergarten through 12th grade. For the week of 8/15-8/21, a total of 12 outbreaks were notified to VDH in the K-12 setting. At its peak so far, there were 25 K-12 outbreaks notified to VDH in the week of 1/24-1/30 of 2021. What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18? The question will resolve as the number of K-12 outbreaks notified to VDH for the week of 9/12-9/18 (12 September — 18 September) reported via the Outbreaks tab in COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. If there are more than 50 outbreaks, this will resolve as >50.", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?", "id": "M7865", "background": "With the recent surge in cases due to the Delta variant, there is increase in vaccine dose administration across the United States. FDA's full approval of the Pfizer vaccine may also be contributing to this increase in administration. Recent discussions around waning immunity have been centered around the need for booster shots. While countries like Israel have offered booster shots to all vaccinated individuals, the US administration is considering offering booster shots of Moderna/Pfizer vaccines six to eight months after the second dose, with a target start date of 20 September for starting the booster program. There are also ongoing discussions regarding booster shots for recipients of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine before 2022? The Virginia Department of Health tracks various vaccine administration statistics here. Although it does not have an entry for booster doses yet, it is expected to have it should booster doses begin to be administered in the state. This question will resolve as the percent of the Virginian population vaccinated with a booster dose based on VDH data as of 31 December 2021. It is expected that people who have received a third dose of a vaccine in addition to having received two doses of an mRNA vaccine and people who have received a second dose of a vaccine in addition to having received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine will count as having received booster shots. Note that an additional dose does not necessarily have to be that of the same vaccine previously received. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?", "id": "M7866", "background": "Nationwide, vaccine administration has continued to increase over the past month, with the current administration rate of about 854,000 doses per day on average as of 23 August, 2021. With the recent full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine, there are expectations of increased inoculation rates and potential vaccine mandates. In Virginia, the 7-day moving average of daily doses administered is 15,963 for 26 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September? This will resolve on the basis of the \"Average Daily Doses Administered\" value for 25 September, which will be accessed via the VDH vaccine summary dashboard. If the average daily doses administered exceeds 35,000 then this resolves as \">35k\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 35000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted on 17 September?", "id": "M7867", "background": "The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slide 8 to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. In the UVA slide deck posted 27 August, 32 local health districts were described as being \"in surge.\" How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted on 17 September? This will resolve based on the number of local health districts described as being \"in surge\" in the UVA slide deck posted 17 September, which will be accessed here.", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00.207000+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?", "id": "M7868", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing delta-driven wave. A key uncertainty is the extent to which the number of confirmed and pending COVID-19 hospitalizations will increase in Virginia over the coming weeks. As of 31 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 1623. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 18 September according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard. If the average COVID Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending) exceeds 3,500, then this resolves as \">3.5k\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 3500, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?", "id": "M7869", "background": "The U.S. CDC has recently updated its mask-wearing guidance in response to the spread of the delta variant. The ultimate extent to which the public will again resume mask-wearing is yet to be determined. COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public is 63.58% as of 28 August. What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the percentage of Virginians who say they wear masks in public as of 18 September. This will be according to COVIDcast's \"People Wearing Masks Summary\".", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?", "id": "M7870", "background": "As a consequence of the Delta variant surge, there is increased testing occurring across Virginia. A key uncertainty is whether the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered in Virginia will keep pace with the number of new cases — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases. On 20 August, the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date for all health districts was 9.8%. What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the \"Percent Positivity by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on the VDH testing dashboard as of 18 September. If the positivity rate exceeds 30%, then this resolves as \">30\"", "publish_time": "2021-09-01 12:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-05 12:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Virginia Lightning Round -- Week 4", "Biology – Infectious Disease" ], "choices": { "max": 30, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the United States support the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", "id": "M7876", "background": "Related question on Metaculus: Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? Talk of a \"new Cold War\" and heightened \"Great Power Competition\" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this Council on Foreign Relations brief on the boycott debate) Governments and human rights activists have pointed to the PRC's human rights abuses as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- particularly Canada -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China. There is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but little evidence that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies. US government spokespeople have said as recently as April 2021 that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners. Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics? The question will resolve if the US Olympic team is not represented at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. If the US and partners decide to hold an alternative to the games outside China, it will be considered a \"boycott.\" If individual athletes on the US team boycott the games, but the US team is officially participating, it will not be considered a \"US boycott.\" This question will close retroactively 24 hours before an official spokesperson for the US team or State Department announces that the US team will boycott. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-04 19:58:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", "id": "M7876", "background": "Related question on Metaculus: Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? Talk of a \"new Cold War\" and heightened \"Great Power Competition\" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this Council on Foreign Relations brief on the boycott debate) Governments and human rights activists have pointed to the PRC's human rights abuses as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- particularly Canada -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China. There is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but little evidence that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies. US government spokespeople have said as recently as April 2021 that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners. Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics? The question will resolve if the US Olympic team is not represented at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. If the US and partners decide to hold an alternative to the games outside China, it will be considered a \"boycott.\" If individual athletes on the US team boycott the games, but the US team is officially participating, it will not be considered a \"US boycott.\" This question will close retroactively 24 hours before an official spokesperson for the US team or State Department announces that the US team will boycott. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-04 19:58:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?", "id": "M7896", "background": "Wildfires cost the US $17.1B in 2020, the 3rd costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2018, when the US lost $25.7B due to wildfires. How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost? This question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all wildfires in 2021 calculated from the NOAA website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their methodology.", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment – Climate", "Economy – US" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Erin O'Toole lose the 2021 Canadian federal election?", "id": "M7899", "background": "The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. Erin O'Toole is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Prime ministers typically are the member of the member of Parliament who leads the largest party or a coalition in the House of Commons. Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? This question resolves positively if Erin O'Toole is projected to be the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election scheduled for 2021-09-20. This question resolves based on consensus projections by credible media sources (e.g., The Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and New York Times). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-06 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-19 16:04:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections — Canada" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?", "id": "M7899", "background": "The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. Erin O'Toole is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Prime ministers typically are the member of the member of Parliament who leads the largest party or a coalition in the House of Commons. Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? This question resolves positively if Erin O'Toole is projected to be the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election scheduled for 2021-09-20. This question resolves based on consensus projections by credible media sources (e.g., The Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and New York Times). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-06 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-09-19 16:04:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections — Canada" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?", "id": "M7909", "background": "Virginian employment in leisure/hospitality peaked at 421.6k in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic low of 216.8k in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching 342.2k in July 2021. There is concern that the ongoing delta-driven surge in COVID cases is slowing employment growth in leisure and hospitality. How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021? This will resolve on the basis of the thousands of persons employed in leisure and hospitality in Virginia in December 2021 according to FRED's All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality in Virginia .", "publish_time": "2021-09-09 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 460, "min": 230, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021 will no hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "id": "M7923", "background": "As of September 2021, hospitals in several states are reported to be near capacity. Some hospitals in Idaho have officially begun rationing care, according to its crisis standards, which prioritize patients with the highest probability of survival but not yet directly using vaccination status as a factor. (Source document for Idaho; please see page 20.) Hawaii's EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-06 signed 1 September 2021 allows medical providers in the state to ration COVID care without fear of liability: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/upload… WASHINGTON POST: When medical care must be rationed, should vaccination status count North Texas Mass Critical Care Guideline Task Force had quietly circulated a memo saying that doctors could take vaccination status into account if triage became necessary in assigning hospital beds, though hours later the group said the document had merely been a “homework assignment.” By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status? This question resolves positively if any hospital in the United States allows doctors to directly and unambiguously take a patient's vaccination status into account if triage becomes necessary in assigning hospital beds. This question resolves based on reporting by credible media sources (e.g., The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, local news media, etc.). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 01:51:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Industry – Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "id": "M7923", "background": "As of September 2021, hospitals in several states are reported to be near capacity. Some hospitals in Idaho have officially begun rationing care, according to its crisis standards, which prioritize patients with the highest probability of survival but not yet directly using vaccination status as a factor. (Source document for Idaho; please see page 20.) Hawaii's EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-06 signed 1 September 2021 allows medical providers in the state to ration COVID care without fear of liability: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/upload… WASHINGTON POST: When medical care must be rationed, should vaccination status count North Texas Mass Critical Care Guideline Task Force had quietly circulated a memo saying that doctors could take vaccination status into account if triage became necessary in assigning hospital beds, though hours later the group said the document had merely been a “homework assignment.” By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status? This question resolves positively if any hospital in the United States allows doctors to directly and unambiguously take a patient's vaccination status into account if triage becomes necessary in assigning hospital beds. This question resolves based on reporting by credible media sources (e.g., The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, local news media, etc.). Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-13 01:51:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Industry – Health" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?", "id": "M7927", "background": "For much of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia has used border controls, contact tracing, and strict lockdowns to maintain low case numbers. On 1 September 2021, the country had reported a cumulative death toll of 1019. With the latest Delta wave triggering widespread lockdowns, however, the State and Federal governments have switched from an 'elimination' strategy to a 'containment' strategy. Based principally on modelling from the Doherty Institute, the Australian government now supports 'reopening' when 70-80% vaccination targets are reached in the 16+ population. This modelling suggests that Almost 400,000 symptomatic cases could be seen in six months, and between 1,000-2,000 deaths. (ABC) However, the simplifying assumptions of the Doherty Institute modelling have received criticism. In one recent report from the Australia Institute, the authors write: Perhaps most significantly, the Doherty modelling results are based on the assumption that the effectiveness of the Testing Tracing Isolation and Quarantine (TTIQ) system never deteriorates below the level experienced during Melbourne’s second wave infections that saw daily cases top 700 per day. [...] Given that NSW case numbers have already topped 1,000 per day and that the last time the NSW government publicly announced data on unlinked cases more than 800 of their daily cases were unlinked it would seem optimistic in the extreme for Scott Morrison to continue to base his national plan on the assumption made by Doherty, back in June 2021, that the effectiveness of TTIQ would not fall below that experienced during Melbourne’s second wave. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021? This question resolves according to the cumulative number of deaths reported by Our World in Data for 1 January 2022. To account for possible fluctuations in reporting, this question will resolve according to the OWID data visible when accessed two weeks later (on 2022-01-14).", "publish_time": "2021-10-18 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-30 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 8000, "min": 1500, "deriv_ratio": 5.333333333333333 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Republican candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "id": "M7929", "background": "The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election is scheduled to be held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is running as the Democratic candidate. His opponent, businessman Glenn Youngkin, is the Republican candidate. Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? This question resolves positively if the Democratic candidate is the next Governor of Virginia following the election scheduled for 2021-11-02 based on election results. This question resolves based on consensus reporting by credible media sources (e.g., Richmond Times-Dispatch, the Washington Post and New York Times) and/or from official results from the State of Virginia. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Short-fuse", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "id": "M7929", "background": "The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election is scheduled to be held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is running as the Democratic candidate. His opponent, businessman Glenn Youngkin, is the Republican candidate. Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? This question resolves positively if the Democratic candidate is the next Governor of Virginia following the election scheduled for 2021-11-02 based on election results. This question resolves based on consensus reporting by credible media sources (e.g., Richmond Times-Dispatch, the Washington Post and New York Times) and/or from official results from the State of Virginia. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Short-fuse", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US Supreme Court not rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7947", "background": "President Biden has announced that the Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule which will require all employees of companies with at least 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly COVID testing. While the official rule has not yet been announced, there have been promises to challenge the new mandate in court. Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021? This question resolves positively if the Department of Labor introduces a new rule that requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, and the Supreme Court of the United States strikes the new rule down as unconstitutional before the end of 2021. If the Department of Labor does not introduce a new rule which requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, this resolves ambiguously. If the Supreme Court of the United States strikes down either the vaccine requirement or the testing requirement but leaves the other in place, this resolves positively. If the Supreme Court strikes down part of the new rule but the remainder of the rule still requires employees of companies with over 100 employees to be either vaccinated or undergo weekly testing, this resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-09-17 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-10 14:22:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "id": "M7947", "background": "President Biden has announced that the Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule which will require all employees of companies with at least 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly COVID testing. While the official rule has not yet been announced, there have been promises to challenge the new mandate in court. Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021? This question resolves positively if the Department of Labor introduces a new rule that requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, and the Supreme Court of the United States strikes the new rule down as unconstitutional before the end of 2021. If the Department of Labor does not introduce a new rule which requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, this resolves ambiguously. If the Supreme Court of the United States strikes down either the vaccine requirement or the testing requirement but leaves the other in place, this resolves positively. If the Supreme Court strikes down part of the new rule but the remainder of the rule still requires employees of companies with over 100 employees to be either vaccinated or undergo weekly testing, this resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-09-17 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-10 14:22:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court not overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "id": "M7958", "background": "On 9 September 2021 President Biden issued an executive order (found here) requiring mandatory COVID vaccinations for all federal employees. For further explanation, please see Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing. Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination. For more information please see Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order This question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order. By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19? This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules by 23 November 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Constitution. If it does not, the question will resolve negative. If the Court decides on any aspect of this case without addressing any issues of constitutionality, the question will resolve negative.", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-24 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Biological Sciences – Medicine", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "id": "M7958", "background": "On 9 September 2021 President Biden issued an executive order (found here) requiring mandatory COVID vaccinations for all federal employees. For further explanation, please see Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing. Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination. For more information please see Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order This question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order. By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19? This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules by 23 November 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Constitution. If it does not, the question will resolve negative. If the Court decides on any aspect of this case without addressing any issues of constitutionality, the question will resolve negative.", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-24 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Biological Sciences – Medicine", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate not pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?", "id": "M7963", "background": "On 15 July 2021 eligible families started temporarily receiving $300 per month per child as part of the American Rescue Plan, for a total of $3,600 per year. Please see the White House overview and FAQ page here. This expansion of the Child Tax Credit is set to expire on 31 December 2021, at which point it reverts back to $2,000 per year. For background please see the following Forbes Advisor article: Will I Receive The Child Tax Credit in 2022? An extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit to 2025 has been proposed as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package currently being debated in the Senate. By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit? Upon credible, consensus open media reports (NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc.) that the US Senate has passed a bill expanding the maximum award of the Child Tax Credit above $2,000 per year past 31 December 2021, this question resolves as yes. Otherwise it resolves as no.", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-16 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?", "id": "M7963", "background": "On 15 July 2021 eligible families started temporarily receiving $300 per month per child as part of the American Rescue Plan, for a total of $3,600 per year. Please see the White House overview and FAQ page here. This expansion of the Child Tax Credit is set to expire on 31 December 2021, at which point it reverts back to $2,000 per year. For background please see the following Forbes Advisor article: Will I Receive The Child Tax Credit in 2022? An extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit to 2025 has been proposed as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package currently being debated in the Senate. By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit? Upon credible, consensus open media reports (NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc.) that the US Senate has passed a bill expanding the maximum award of the Child Tax Credit above $2,000 per year past 31 December 2021, this question resolves as yes. Otherwise it resolves as no.", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-16 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When, if ever, will Solana exceed Cardano in market cap?", "id": "M7964", "background": "Solana and Cardano are both proof-of-stake blockchains with support or planned support for smart contracts. At the time of writing, Cardano is the #3 cryptocurrency by market cap ($87bn), and Solana the number #6 ($54bn), as reported by Coinmarketcap, but Solana has steadily been gaining popularity over the past weeks. When, if ever, will Solana exceed Cardano in market cap? The date to which this question resolves is the first date on which https://coinmarketcap.com/ reports a larger market cap for Solana than for Cardano. If Coinmarketcap ceases to exist, https://www.coingecko.com will be used instead. If both cease to exist, this question resolves ambiguously. If Solana’s market cap does not exceed Cardano’s by the close date, this question resolves ambiguously. To prevent bad data or extreme volatility from disrupting this question, Solana’s market cap must be greater than Cardano’s for 24 hours for this question to resolve positively.", "publish_time": "2021-10-03 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-18 15:21:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance — Cryptocurrencies", "Computing – Blockchain" ], "choices": { "max": "2031-12-30", "min": "2021-09-10", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA not approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "id": "M7969", "background": "Currently there are no COVID vaccinations authorized by the FDA for any American in the 5-11 age group. Reuters recently reported that approval of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 could come by the end of October. The expectation is that Pfizer will submit data for an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the end of September, and the FDA's approval for EUA will come within three weeks after that. By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? Upon credible, consensus open media reports (Reuters, NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, etc.) that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved any COVID-19 vaccine by any pharmaceutical company for at least some Americans in the 5-11 age group, this question resolves as positive. Otherwise it resolves as negative. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-16 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "id": "M7969", "background": "Currently there are no COVID vaccinations authorized by the FDA for any American in the 5-11 age group. Reuters recently reported that approval of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 could come by the end of October. The expectation is that Pfizer will submit data for an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the end of September, and the FDA's approval for EUA will come within three weeks after that. By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? Upon credible, consensus open media reports (Reuters, NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, etc.) that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved any COVID-19 vaccine by any pharmaceutical company for at least some Americans in the 5-11 age group, this question resolves as positive. Otherwise it resolves as negative. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-15 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-16 03:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Biological Sciences – Medicine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten not resolve ambiguously?", "id": "M7976", "background": "Will this question resolve ambiguously? Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously? This question will resolve positively if this question resolves ambiguously, and it will resolve negatively otherwise. ", "publish_time": "2021-09-16 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?", "id": "M7976", "background": "Will this question resolve ambiguously? Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously? This question will resolve positively if this question resolves ambiguously, and it will resolve negatively otherwise. ", "publish_time": "2021-09-16 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley continue serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "id": "M7980", "background": "General Mark A. Milley became the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. For his official Department of Defense biography, please see here. On 14 September 2021, it was reported by the Washington Post that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa. This has led to calls from critics as such as The National Review for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason. By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? This question resolves as positive if General Milley leaves or is removed from his position of 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff by 11:59 PM on 31 December 2021. Otherwise this resolves as negative. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-17 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-20 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "id": "M7980", "background": "General Mark A. Milley became the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. For his official Department of Defense biography, please see here. On 14 September 2021, it was reported by the Washington Post that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa. This has led to calls from critics as such as The National Review for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason. By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? This question resolves as positive if General Milley leaves or is removed from his position of 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff by 11:59 PM on 31 December 2021. Otherwise this resolves as negative. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-17 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-20 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2022, will there exist a month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), with inflation more than 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", "id": "M7987", "background": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. One approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) Commercial paper is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate. In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? This question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%. This resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate. This resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.", "publish_time": "2021-09-16 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", "id": "M7987", "background": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. One approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) Commercial paper is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate. In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? This question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%. This resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate. This resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.", "publish_time": "2021-09-16 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US – Economic Indicators", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?", "id": "M7991", "background": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay by Adam_Ragozzino on the threat of Islamic State violence in Nigeria. Click here to read the full essay. After the death of Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, the Islamic West Africa Province (ISWAP or ISWA) was the left the strongest violent extremist organization (VEO) in the Lake Chad basin. In 2019, Nigeria was the site of 160 attacks, and the question of whether ISWAP makes further gains into Nigerian states is of the utmost importance for the stability of Nigeria's economy and for its ability to govern. This question asks how many of the following Nigerian states will see attacks by Islamic State West Africa Providence or Boko Haram within the next 6 months? Borno Yobe Gombe Adamawa Jigawa Bauchi Plateau Taraba Katsina Kano Kaduna Nassarawa Benue Sokoto Kebbi Zamfara Niger Kwara Kogi Benue Federal Capital Territory How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months? This question will resolve by referencing the Nigerian Security Tracker's weekly updates, e.g., 8.28 - 9.2. After six months, any states that appear in weekly report incident bullets indicating involvement by Islamic State, ISWAP, ISWA, Boko Haram, or any not-specified-here Islamic State offshoot are added to the count.", "publish_time": "2021-09-16 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-17 04:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – terrorism" ], "choices": { "max": 21, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will less than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?", "id": "M8002", "background": "The Metaculus prediction (MP) was on the correct side of the consensus for the first 4 scheduled trades in the Trade Signal tournament. Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus? There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only predictions for these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that the MP is deemed to be equal to the consensus to the significant digits reported as the consensus by marketwatch then no trade will be attempted, and the forecast will not count toward the resolution. If Metaculus wants to trade, but is unable to trade because there is no \"cash available for trading\" in the brokerage account then that prediction will still count toward this resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-18 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?", "id": "M8002", "background": "The Metaculus prediction (MP) was on the correct side of the consensus for the first 4 scheduled trades in the Trade Signal tournament. Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus? There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only predictions for these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that the MP is deemed to be equal to the consensus to the significant digits reported as the consensus by marketwatch then no trade will be attempted, and the forecast will not count toward the resolution. If Metaculus wants to trade, but is unable to trade because there is no \"cash available for trading\" in the brokerage account then that prediction will still count toward this resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-18 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will less than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?", "id": "M8003", "background": "Metaculus made money on 2 of the first 4 trades in the Trade Signal tournament. Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money? There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that a scheduled trade is not made, for any reason, it will not count toward this resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?", "id": "M8003", "background": "Metaculus made money on 2 of the first 4 trades in the Trade Signal tournament. Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money? There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that a scheduled trade is not made, for any reason, it will not count toward this resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool not increase as a result of trading?", "id": "M8004", "background": "Metaculus started with a $1,500 prize pool for the Trade Signal tournament. We are trading this prize pool based on this trading plan. As of Sept 16, the prize pool is $1,500.72. Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading? Resolves yes if the final prize pool exceeds $1,500.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?", "id": "M8004", "background": "Metaculus started with a $1,500 prize pool for the Trade Signal tournament. We are trading this prize pool based on this trading plan. As of Sept 16, the prize pool is $1,500.72. Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading? Resolves yes if the final prize pool exceeds $1,500.", "publish_time": "2021-09-19 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-27 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. not default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "id": "M8024", "background": "According to Voice of America, the U.S. is in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt: Unless Congress votes to increase the amount of money the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow above its current debt of $28.5 trillion, the United States will default on its financial obligations sometime in the next several weeks, experts warn. Few experts consider that likely to happen, but if it did, it could trigger an economic catastrophe with effects far beyond America's shores. In a letter to members of Congress last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the damage that would result if the U.S. is unable, even for a short time, to pay its bills. \"A delay that calls into question the federal government's ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets,\" wrote Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board. \"At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk.\" With that crisis looming, Democrats and Republicans in Washington are battling over who should take responsibility for the politically unpopular task of raising the cap on borrowing, commonly known as the debt limit. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have vowed that not a single one of them will vote to raise the limit. As of September 20th, Business Insider reports that Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt: \"We will not support legislation that raises the debt limit,\" McConnell said after Pelosi and Schumer's announcement. \"Democrats do not need our help.\" It is currently unclear when exactly the US would become unable to meet its obligations; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said only that the Treasury will run out of cash “sometime in October.” Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021? This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 November 2021, the US Treasury announces that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that the US has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations: BBC News ABC News CBS News CNN Wall Street Journal Financial Times", "publish_time": "2021-09-21 13:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-15 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "id": "M8024", "background": "According to Voice of America, the U.S. is in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt: Unless Congress votes to increase the amount of money the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow above its current debt of $28.5 trillion, the United States will default on its financial obligations sometime in the next several weeks, experts warn. Few experts consider that likely to happen, but if it did, it could trigger an economic catastrophe with effects far beyond America's shores. In a letter to members of Congress last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the damage that would result if the U.S. is unable, even for a short time, to pay its bills. \"A delay that calls into question the federal government's ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets,\" wrote Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board. \"At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk.\" With that crisis looming, Democrats and Republicans in Washington are battling over who should take responsibility for the politically unpopular task of raising the cap on borrowing, commonly known as the debt limit. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have vowed that not a single one of them will vote to raise the limit. As of September 20th, Business Insider reports that Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt: \"We will not support legislation that raises the debt limit,\" McConnell said after Pelosi and Schumer's announcement. \"Democrats do not need our help.\" It is currently unclear when exactly the US would become unable to meet its obligations; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said only that the Treasury will run out of cash “sometime in October.” Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021? This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 November 2021, the US Treasury announces that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that the US has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations: BBC News ABC News CBS News CNN Wall Street Journal Financial Times", "publish_time": "2021-09-21 13:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-15 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Evergrande not default on its debt before the end of 2021?", "id": "M8027", "background": "The Chinese real-estate company Evergrande group has debts of $305 billion, or approximately 2% of China's GDP. The company's shares have dropped 85% since the beginning of the year. It must make bond interest payments of $83.5m on September 23rd and $47.5m on September 29th and its lenders are preparing for losses. It may be that in this case the Chinese state would provide support to prevent wider market contagion, but so far this is believed to be unlikely. Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021? This question resolves positively if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Evergrande group has entered default, or this is reported by any two of the following media organisations: BBC News ABC News CBS News CNN Wall Street Journal Financial Times", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 09:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance – markets" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?", "id": "M8027", "background": "The Chinese real-estate company Evergrande group has debts of $305 billion, or approximately 2% of China's GDP. The company's shares have dropped 85% since the beginning of the year. It must make bond interest payments of $83.5m on September 23rd and $47.5m on September 29th and its lenders are preparing for losses. It may be that in this case the Chinese state would provide support to prevent wider market contagion, but so far this is believed to be unlikely. Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021? This question resolves positively if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Evergrande group has entered default, or this is reported by any two of the following media organisations: BBC News ABC News CBS News CNN Wall Street Journal Financial Times", "publish_time": "2021-09-24 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 09:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance – markets" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Israeli Knesset not pass a budget by November 30th?", "id": "M8046", "background": "The new Israeli Knesset will have to pass a budget by November 4th, postpone the deadline, or the government will be automatically dissolved and a snap election will be called. The last Israeli government fell this way: lawmakers voted against delaying the budget deadline, and the Netanyahu-Gantz government was dissolved, leading to elections this past March. The current government's budget proposal has been approved by the cabinet and passed the first reading, but two more votes remain before it passes. Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th? The question will resolve positively if the Israeli Knesset fully passes budgets for 2021 and 2022 by November 30th. Otherwise, it will resolve negative.", "publish_time": "2021-09-29 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?", "id": "M8046", "background": "The new Israeli Knesset will have to pass a budget by November 4th, postpone the deadline, or the government will be automatically dissolved and a snap election will be called. The last Israeli government fell this way: lawmakers voted against delaying the budget deadline, and the Netanyahu-Gantz government was dissolved, leading to elections this past March. The current government's budget proposal has been approved by the cabinet and passed the first reading, but two more votes remain before it passes. Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th? The question will resolve positively if the Israeli Knesset fully passes budgets for 2021 and 2022 by November 30th. Otherwise, it will resolve negative.", "publish_time": "2021-09-29 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-01 07:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will the next German government be formed?", "id": "M8058", "background": "In German federal elections (most recent: September 26th, 2021) the electorate is electing the German parliament, the Bundestag. Members of the newly formed Bundestag then elect the chancellor with a simple majority vote. As the government is formed by a coalition of multiple parties and negotiating an agreement takes time, there is a time delay between the beginning of the term of the parliament and the government. After the Bundestag elections of September 24th 2017, it took until March 14th, 2018 for Angela Merkel to be reelected and the new government to take office. The most recent federal elections opened multiple pathways to a coalition government, which may impact the speed of forming a new government. For instance, in 2017 one set of coalition talks broke down, and a different coalition needed to be negotiated, leading to an almost three month delay between the election and the establishment of the new governing coalition. On the other hand, party leaders have indicated that forming a new government quickly is desirable and having many options to do so may increase the speed if negotiations are held in parallel. When will the next German government be formed? The question will be resolved to the date that two media sources report that a new German chancellor has been elected and confirmed by checking the page Das Bundeskabinett on the German federal government's website. The question will be closed retroactively one day before the chancellor's election. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-09-29 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Elections – European" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-26", "min": "2021-09-26", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will LDP cease to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?", "id": "M8095", "background": "Japan is governed by a bicameral legislature, the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has greater power, and has the role of appointing the Prime Minister of Japan. The House of Representatives will hold an election no later than 2021-11-28, while the House of Councillors is due for an election in 2022. In January 2021, Dylan Matthews predicted 90% that LDP would continue to govern Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan [...] [is] not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well. Since January, Suga announced he would not seek re-election, leading the LDP to select Fumio Kishida as the next leader of the LDP. Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election? This question resolves positively if, after the 2021 election, the Liberal Democratic Party forms a governing coalition in the House of Representatives. The election may be scheduled between late October and November, so the question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open.", "publish_time": "2021-10-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-30 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?", "id": "M8095", "background": "Japan is governed by a bicameral legislature, the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has greater power, and has the role of appointing the Prime Minister of Japan. The House of Representatives will hold an election no later than 2021-11-28, while the House of Councillors is due for an election in 2022. In January 2021, Dylan Matthews predicted 90% that LDP would continue to govern Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan [...] [is] not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well. Since January, Suga announced he would not seek re-election, leading the LDP to select Fumio Kishida as the next leader of the LDP. Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election? This question resolves positively if, after the 2021 election, the Liberal Democratic Party forms a governing coalition in the House of Representatives. The election may be scheduled between late October and November, so the question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open.", "publish_time": "2021-10-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-10-30 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect 2021", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021, will no Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "id": "M8121", "background": "Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021. Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ here. For purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline. By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization? This question resolves positively upon aircraft of the People's Liberation Army Air Force entering Taiwan's airspace without authorization. Otherwise it resolves negatively. Resolves per credible media reporting. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-10-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-02 16:14:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "id": "M8121", "background": "Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021. Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ here. For purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline. By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization? This question resolves positively upon aircraft of the People's Liberation Army Air Force entering Taiwan's airspace without authorization. Otherwise it resolves negatively. Resolves per credible media reporting. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-10-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-02 16:14:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Fed not announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?", "id": "M8298", "background": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. If the Fed launches a “tapering” process to slow down bond purchases this year, this will signal concern that such emergency measures, if extended for too long, are causing price bubbles in markets and economic overheating. There are only two meetings of the Fed’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left this year, so much attention will be paid to the statements that come out of that. Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022? This resolves positive if, before Jan. 1, 2022, an announcement is made in any statement following the almost-monthly meetings of the FOMC, that the pace of bond purchases will be lowered at some point in the future. All the previous statements and the calendars for future meetings this year (in November and December) are here, and any future statements will also be available in the same place.", "publish_time": "2021-10-21 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-03 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?", "id": "M8298", "background": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. If the Fed launches a “tapering” process to slow down bond purchases this year, this will signal concern that such emergency measures, if extended for too long, are causing price bubbles in markets and economic overheating. There are only two meetings of the Fed’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left this year, so much attention will be paid to the statements that come out of that. Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022? This resolves positive if, before Jan. 1, 2022, an announcement is made in any statement following the almost-monthly meetings of the FOMC, that the pace of bond purchases will be lowered at some point in the future. All the previous statements and the calendars for future meetings this year (in November and December) are here, and any future statements will also be available in the same place.", "publish_time": "2021-10-21 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-03 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Fed not raise the RRR this year?", "id": "M8300", "background": "The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. It’s one of several tools used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks, to conduct monetary policy. China, for example, is a big fan of the RRR as a policy tool. A rise in the RRR mandates banks to accumulate reserves, removing cash from the economy – which boils down to monetary policy tightening. Besides other measures, the Fed has resorted to using the RRR: in March 2020, as part of its emergency measures suite, it lowered the RRR to 0%. And it’s kept the policy in place since. Will the Fed raise the RRR this year? This resolves positive if the Fed here officially announces a rise of its reserve requirements above 0%, before Jan. 1, 2022. This resolves negative if no rise is officially announced here (even if it is, for example, hinted at by Fed officials.)", "publish_time": "2021-10-21 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?", "id": "M8300", "background": "The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. It’s one of several tools used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks, to conduct monetary policy. China, for example, is a big fan of the RRR as a policy tool. A rise in the RRR mandates banks to accumulate reserves, removing cash from the economy – which boils down to monetary policy tightening. Besides other measures, the Fed has resorted to using the RRR: in March 2020, as part of its emergency measures suite, it lowered the RRR to 0%. And it’s kept the policy in place since. Will the Fed raise the RRR this year? This resolves positive if the Fed here officially announces a rise of its reserve requirements above 0%, before Jan. 1, 2022. This resolves negative if no rise is officially announced here (even if it is, for example, hinted at by Fed officials.)", "publish_time": "2021-10-21 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Economy – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?", "id": "M8309", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? In the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe currently holds a +3.0 percentage point lead over Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin, according to polling aggregator FiveThiryEight. Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some have argued that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others have suggested that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses. In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin? This question will resolve as the percentage of the total vote won by McAuliffe, minus the percentage won by Youngkin. For example, if the vote for McAuliffe is 50% and Youngkin's is 45%, the question will resolve as 5.0. If Youngkin wins 49% versus McAuliffe's 47%, this will resolve as -2.0.", "publish_time": "2021-10-21 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-02 03:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Elections – U.S." ], "choices": { "max": 10, "min": -10, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?", "id": "M8310", "background": "On 31 August 2021, five zebras escaped from a private farm in Maryland, USA. They are not expected to go far, according to the Washington Post: \"Experts said the zebras are probably sticking fairly close to the edges of their home — an 80-acre farm off Duley Station Road in Upper Marlboro\". On 9 September, 2021, Rodney Taylor, chief of the Prince George County’s animal services division, said \"it could take as long as a week for the zebras to be caught\". On 14 October, Maryland's Natural Resources Police reported that a zebra had been found dead in an illegal snare trap on 16 September. Additionally, it was corrected that only three zebras had escaped, not five. The wherabouts of the remaining zebras is unknown, or not publicly released yet. When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught? This question resolves on the date that all of the zebras that escaped during the events on 31 August 2021 have been found dead or captured. Official government sources or a consensus of media reports will be used as a resolution source. In the event that they are found dead, the resolution date will be on the date the last body is found. If they are never found, or such information is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve >2023-01-01", "publish_time": "2021-10-20 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-14 20:15:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": { "max": "2023-01-01", "min": "2021-08-31", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?", "id": "M8452", "background": "The UK is currently administering COVID booster shots to vulnerable groups, and has recently surpassed a total of 7 million total booster shots administered. As of 29 October 2021, the following groups are currently eligible for COVID booster doses according to the UK's National Health Service: people aged 50 and over people who live and work in care homes frontline health and social care workers people aged 16 and over with a health condition that puts them at high risk of getting seriously ill from COVID-19 people aged 16 and over who are a main carer for someone at high risk from COVID-19 people aged 16 and over who live with someone who is more likely to get infections (such as someone who has HIV, has had a transplant or is having certain treatments for cancer, lupus or rheumatoid arthritis) When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK? This resolves as the date when all UK adults (18+) are eligible for COVID booster doses according to the UK NHS. If this does not occur before 1 April 2022, this will resolve as > 1 April 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-29 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-01", "min": "2021-11-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will implementation of “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "id": "M8454", "background": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if \"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\" According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following: Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport) Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases. Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so. Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For positive resolution, plan B would have to include at least the three measures mentioned in Johnson's 14 September plan: use of vaccine passports for high-risk settings, legally mandated use of face coverings in certain settings, and clear/urgent communication to the public. Also see this question on whether \"Plan C\" measures will be announced. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "id": "M8454", "background": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if \"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\" According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following: Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport) Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases. Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so. Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For positive resolution, plan B would have to include at least the three measures mentioned in Johnson's 14 September plan: use of vaccine passports for high-risk settings, legally mandated use of face coverings in certain settings, and clear/urgent communication to the public. Also see this question on whether \"Plan C\" measures will be announced. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-08 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "id": "M8455", "background": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if \"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\" According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following: Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport) Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases. Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so. Media reports indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan reportedly might include a ban on inter-household mixing. Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs. Also see this question on whether \"Plan B\" measures will be announced. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "id": "M8455", "background": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if \"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\" According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following: Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport) Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases. Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so. Media reports indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan reportedly might include a ban on inter-household mixing. Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs. Also see this question on whether \"Plan B\" measures will be announced. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will no restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?", "id": "M8456", "background": "In England there is growing concern, given waning vaccine-induced immunity, steadily rising COVID cases/hospitalizations, and lack of \"Plan B\" implementation, that restrictions on household mixing may be introduced later this winter and may be in effect during Christmas. Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021? This resolves positively if, according to the UK Government or credible media reporting, there are any government restrictions on household mixing in England that are in effect on 25 December 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?", "id": "M8456", "background": "In England there is growing concern, given waning vaccine-induced immunity, steadily rising COVID cases/hospitalizations, and lack of \"Plan B\" implementation, that restrictions on household mixing may be introduced later this winter and may be in effect during Christmas. Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021? This resolves positively if, according to the UK Government or credible media reporting, there are any government restrictions on household mixing in England that are in effect on 25 December 2021. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?", "id": "M8458", "background": "A key uncertainty in the UK is what the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will be during the winter of 2021-2022. As of 24 October 2021, the 7-day moving average for UK COVID patients in hospital is 8,528.3. The all-time peak was 38,434.1 on 19 January 2021. What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations on the \"Patients in Hospital” graph on the UK Government's \"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\" dashboard. 1 November 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 28 February 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 22000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?", "id": "M8459", "background": "A key uncertainty in the UK is when the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will occur during the winter of 2021-2022. As of 24 October 2021, the 7-day moving average for UK COVID patients in hospital is 8,528.3. The all-time peak was 38,434.1 on 19 January 2021. When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur? This question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations on the \"Patients in Hospital” graph on the UK Government's \"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\" dashboard. 1 November 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 28 February 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what the magnitude of this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-11-01 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-02-28", "min": "2021-11-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces not seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M8513", "background": "It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans. Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022? Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022: the National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front who are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces and who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia", "publish_time": "2021-11-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M8513", "background": "It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans. Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022? Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022: the National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front who are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces and who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia", "publish_time": "2021-11-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces not cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?", "id": "M8517", "background": "It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans. The A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti is a strategic highway link, which Tigrayan forces say they are trying to cut off. Given that Ethiopia is land-locked, the port in Djibouti is the main conduit of trade for the country. Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end? Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before 2022: armed conflict is ongoing between the TPLF and forces aligned with Abiy Ahmed Ali or his de facto successor AND the A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti: is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front for any contiguous 24h period OR is for security reasons largely impassible without the co-operation of armed forces aligned with the TPLF for any contiguous 120h period If the A1 is seized or made impassible at any time before the end of 2021, the contiguous 24h and 120h periods may extend into 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-11-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-18 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?", "id": "M8517", "background": "It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans. The A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti is a strategic highway link, which Tigrayan forces say they are trying to cut off. Given that Ethiopia is land-locked, the port in Djibouti is the main conduit of trade for the country. Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end? Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before 2022: armed conflict is ongoing between the TPLF and forces aligned with Abiy Ahmed Ali or his de facto successor AND the A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti: is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front for any contiguous 24h period OR is for security reasons largely impassible without the co-operation of armed forces aligned with the TPLF for any contiguous 120h period If the A1 is seized or made impassible at any time before the end of 2021, the contiguous 24h and 120h periods may extend into 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-11-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-18 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?", "id": "M8518", "background": "From the AP, Pfizer Inc. said Friday that its experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 cut rates of hospitalization and death by nearly 90% in high-risk adults, as the drugmaker joined the race for an easy-to-use medication to treat the coronavirus. Currently most COVID-19 treatments require an IV or injection. Competitor Merck’s COVID-19 pill is already under review at the Food and Drug Administration after showing strong initial results, and on Thursday the United Kingdom became the first country to OK it. Pfizer said it will ask the FDA and international regulators to authorize its pill as soon as possible, after independent experts recommended halting the company’s study based on the strength of its results. Once Pfizer applies, the FDA could make a decision within weeks or months. When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA? This question resolves positively on the date during which Paxlovid (also known under PF-07321332, referenced in this article or any product containing PF-07321332 receives an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or full approval from the FDA for treating COVID-19.", "publish_time": "2021-11-09 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-15 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Biology – Medicine – Clinical Trials", "Industry – Pharmaceutical" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-01", "min": "2021-11-04", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Biden's Build Back Better Budget not include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", "id": "M8524", "background": "The Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. In the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals worth more than $600, purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was raised to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000. Banking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities. Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits? This question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.", "publish_time": "2021-11-07 21:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-20 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Biden's Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", "id": "M8524", "background": "The Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. In the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals worth more than $600, purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was raised to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000. Banking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities. Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits? This question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.", "publish_time": "2021-11-07 21:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-20 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Korea not launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", "id": "M8534", "background": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. According to a BBC article released on 19-10-2021: \"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\" See also a list of North Korean missile tests. Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? This question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that: The missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice Either a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution For positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead See also: *Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?", "publish_time": "2021-11-11 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-24 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Tournament -- Nuclear Risk - Round 3", "Series – Nuclear Threats" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", "id": "M8534", "background": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. According to a BBC article released on 19-10-2021: \"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\" See also a list of North Korean missile tests. Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? This question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that: The missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice Either a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution For positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead See also: *Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?", "publish_time": "2021-11-11 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-24 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Tournament -- Nuclear Risk - Round 3", "Series – Nuclear Threats" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?", "id": "M8561", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia and United States have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. As of November 10th, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 1301. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for November 26th, 2021 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-19 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?", "id": "M8562", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia and United States have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. As of November 10th, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 1301. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for December 10th, 2021 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 6000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?", "id": "M8564", "background": "Following the full approval of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by FDA for 16 years and older, there has been a marginal increase in the number of first doses administered in Virginia. Further, with the recent emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, first dose vaccinations are expected to go up in the coming weeks leading up to the holidays. As of November 9th, 2021, 70.7% of the population of Virginia is vaccinated with at least one dose. What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose as of December 10th, 2021 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 70, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?", "id": "M8565", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. Recently, this emergency use authorization was amended to include Moderna and Janssen booster shots, as well as heterologous (\"mix and match\") booster shots. As of November 9th, 2021, 13.95% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of December 10th, 2021 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 40, "min": 10, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?", "id": "M8566", "background": "FDA recently announced an emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age. CDC has subsequently recommended the pediatric COVID-19 vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age. With the expanded eligibility for nearly 28 million children in the United States, first dose vaccinations in this age group are expected to go up in the coming weeks leading up to the holidays. What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose in the 5-11 age group in Virginia as of December 10th, 2021 from the Vaccine Demographics tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?", "id": "M8567", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. However, long term ensemble projections from Scenario Modeling Hub hint at continued decline under scenarios without the emergence of a novel variant. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?", "id": "M8568", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. However, long term ensemble projections from Scenario Modeling Hub hint at continued decline under scenarios without the emergence of a novel variant. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-02-03", "min": "2021-11-11", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?", "id": "M8570", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. However, long term ensemble projections from Scenario Modeling Hub hint at continued decline under scenarios without the emergence of a novel variant. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of 6166 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-12 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 1" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-02-03", "min": "2021-11-11", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse not be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "id": "M8578", "background": "On August 25, 2020, amid the unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old from Antioch, Illinois, shot and killed two men and wounded another man in the arm during confrontations at two locations. Rittenhouse was subsequently charged with multiple felonies in connection with these events, and is currently on trial. Rittenhouse is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges. Rittenhouse is charged with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree homicide, two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety, and one misdemeanour count of possession of a dangerous weapon by a person under age 18. This misdemeanour charge is not relevant to this question, but is mentioned here for completeness. Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2022, Rittenhouse is convicted on any of the previously enumerated felony charges against him. These are the two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, the single count of attempted first-degree homicide, and the two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety. A conviction on any other charges, felony or misdemeanour, is irrelevant to the resolution of this question. The question will resolve negatively if this does not happen, including if there is a mistrial and any subsequent retrial on these charges does not result in a conviction on at least one of the felony charges before January 1, 2022. This question closes retroactively to the moment the jury are instructed to deliberate on any felony charge in this case, or the moment the jury is directed to deliver a particular verdict on any felony charge, or the moment all felony charges are dismissed, or the moment any plea on a felony charge is changed to guilty, whichever happens earlier. Note that this question is strictly a prediction as to what will happen, and not a statement or assertion in relation to Rittenhouse's actual guilt or innocence.", "publish_time": "2021-11-11 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "id": "M8578", "background": "On August 25, 2020, amid the unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old from Antioch, Illinois, shot and killed two men and wounded another man in the arm during confrontations at two locations. Rittenhouse was subsequently charged with multiple felonies in connection with these events, and is currently on trial. Rittenhouse is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges. Rittenhouse is charged with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree homicide, two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety, and one misdemeanour count of possession of a dangerous weapon by a person under age 18. This misdemeanour charge is not relevant to this question, but is mentioned here for completeness. Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2022, Rittenhouse is convicted on any of the previously enumerated felony charges against him. These are the two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, the single count of attempted first-degree homicide, and the two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety. A conviction on any other charges, felony or misdemeanour, is irrelevant to the resolution of this question. The question will resolve negatively if this does not happen, including if there is a mistrial and any subsequent retrial on these charges does not result in a conviction on at least one of the felony charges before January 1, 2022. This question closes retroactively to the moment the jury are instructed to deliberate on any felony charge in this case, or the moment the jury is directed to deliver a particular verdict on any felony charge, or the moment all felony charges are dismissed, or the moment any plea on a felony charge is changed to guilty, whichever happens earlier. Note that this question is strictly a prediction as to what will happen, and not a statement or assertion in relation to Rittenhouse's actual guilt or innocence.", "publish_time": "2021-11-11 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-11-15 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?", "id": "M8661", "background": "Rivian is an American electric vehicle automaker and automotive technology company founded in 2009. Rivian went public in November 2021 to great investor enthusiasm: it was valued at $86 billion after its market debut, attaining a higher market capitalization than Ford. A week after its IPO, its value had soared to more than $145 billion, and it became the third-most valuable automaker in the world, behind only Tesla and Toyota, and ahead of established giants like Volkswagen - despite not reporting material revenue in its corporate history. The level of enthusiasm for Rivian stock, and that of EV automakers in general, after Tesla became a trillion-dollar company, has led to some questions about the rationality of its valuation. What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? This question resolves as the market capitalization of Rivian as of the close of trading on April 20th 2022, in billions of US dollars. If the company no longer exists at this time, or if it is no longer a publicly-traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-11-20 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-15 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Finance – markets", "Transportation Industry – Automotive" ], "choices": { "max": 1000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries not diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M8673", "background": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights activists' dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event. There's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China. On November 16, 2021, Josh Rogin at the Washington Post wrote that the United States was planning to diplomatically boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said the US is considering such a boycott. This is where this question comes in. A diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country. Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed. The question will resolve positively if at least four of following nations participate in a diplomatic boycott (or absolute boycott) of the games, and negatively if three or fewer boycott: Australia Canada India Japan New Zealand United Kingdom United States The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously. For this question, a diplomatic boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing as officially representing their country, but WITHOUT sending any government officials to attend.", "publish_time": "2021-11-22 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Geopolitics", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M8673", "background": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights activists' dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event. There's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China. On November 16, 2021, Josh Rogin at the Washington Post wrote that the United States was planning to diplomatically boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said the US is considering such a boycott. This is where this question comes in. A diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country. Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed. The question will resolve positively if at least four of following nations participate in a diplomatic boycott (or absolute boycott) of the games, and negatively if three or fewer boycott: Australia Canada India Japan New Zealand United Kingdom United States The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously. For this question, a diplomatic boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing as officially representing their country, but WITHOUT sending any government officials to attend.", "publish_time": "2021-11-22 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-03 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Social issues", "Geopolitics", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?", "id": "M8690", "background": "On 19 November, the FDA authorized and the CDC recommended that all adults in the U.S. who have already completed primary vaccination with a FDA-authorized SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (2 doses of Pfizer, 2 doses of Moderna, or 1 dose of Janssen) can and should receive a booster dose. VDH subsequently urged all fully vaccinated adults in Virginia to get a booster dose. As of 21 November, 1,076,029 Virginians have received a booster dose — which translates to 12.6% of Virginia’s population of 8,535,519 (2019 figure used by VDH). What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022? This question resolves on the basis of the percentage of Virginia’s population that will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022 according to VDH’s COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard. The number under “People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose” will be divided by the 2019 total population figure of 8,535,519 and then multiplied by 100 to get the percentage figure for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-18 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?", "id": "M8691", "background": "On 5 November, the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) published an emergency temporary standard (ETS) for most private-sector employers with 100 or more employees. It requires that all covered employers do the following by 4 January 2022: develop, implement, and enforce a mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy, with an exception for employers that instead establish, implement, and enforce a policy allowing employees who are not fully vaccinated to elect to undergo weekly COVID-19 testing and wear a face covering at the workplace On 17 November, OSHA announced it has “suspended activities related to the implementation and enforcement of the ETS” as a result of a court-ordered stay on the mandate being upheld by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on 12 November. It is expected that the Biden administration will ask for the stay to be lifted. When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect? This will resolve on the basis of when the OSHA rule requiring that employers of 100+ employees mandate vaccinations or weekly testing goes into effect. The earliest date the rule can go into effect is 4 January 2022. Any version of the rule can go into effect to count toward positive resolution. If this does not occur before 4 May 2022, it resolves as > 4 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-04", "min": "2022-01-04", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?", "id": "M8693", "background": "Recently, interim efficacy results of two investigational oral antiviral pills have been announced and this information has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as part of applications for authorization. On 1 October, Merck announced that its investigational oral antiviral pill molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) “reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%”. On 11 October, Merck announced it had submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA for molnupiravir. The FDA has scheduled an advisory committee meeting for 30 November to “discuss the available data supporting the use of molnupiravir”. Some experts have expressed safety concerns about molnupiravir. On 5 November, Pfizer Merck announced that its investigational oral antiviral pill PAXLOVID™ (PF-07321332; ritonavir) “was found to reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% compared to placebo in non-hospitalized high-risk adults with COVID-19”. On 16 November, Pfizer announced it had submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA for PAXLOVID. The FDA has not yet scheduled an advisory committee meeting to discuss PAXLOVID, and it is unclear if they will do so or will instead go straight to approval. When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? This will resolve as the date when FDA announces via press release it has authorized a COVID oral antiviral pill. If this does not occur before 4 May 2022, it resolves as > 4 May 2022. Also see this non-tournament question on when Pfizer’s oral antiviral pill, Paxlovid, will be authorized by the FDA.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-22 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-04", "min": "2021-11-24", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?", "id": "M8694", "background": "The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slides 7 and 8) to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. As of the 17 November weekly update, 0 districts are described as being “In Surge.” How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being \"in surge\" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022? The question will resolve based on the slide deck UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides dated 12 January 2022 that are posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog on 14 January. Occasionally, model runs and posts are delayed. In this case, the nearest following slide deck and post will suffice for resolution, as long as these reference the week ending 16 January 2022 (i.e., the week is not skipped). The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"In Surge\" category. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 35, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?", "id": "M8695", "background": "Many U.S. hospitals are currently facing nurse staffing shortages. This is also the case in Virginia. As a result, many hospitals are relying on travel nurses to help address these shortages. Vivian, a healthcare jobs marketplace, is reporting as of 21 November that the average travel nurse salary in Virginia is $2,809 per week. At the time the estimate was made it was based on 21,068 active jobs in the last 90 days. What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022? This will resolve as the “Average Travel Nurse Salary” for Virginia on 31 March 2022, according to Vivian. This reflects the average per-week salary over the previous 90 day period. If the weekly average travel nurse salary exceeds $6,000 then this resolves as > 6k.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 6000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?", "id": "M8696", "background": "COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public was 63.68% on 18 November. What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022? This will resolve as the 7-day moving average of the percentage of Virginians who say they wear masks in public most or all of the time as of 14 January 2022. This will be according to COVIDcast's \"People Wearing Masks Summary\".", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are \"vaccine accepting\" on 14 January 2022?", "id": "M8697", "background": "The University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute is tracking the extent of vaccine acceptance in Virginia here. It adjusts vaccine acceptance data from COVIDcast to correct for biases. COVIDcast in turn gets its data from surveys of Facebook users who “say they have already received a COVID vaccine, have an appointment to receive a COVID vaccine, or would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ choose to be vaccinated if a COVID vaccine were offered to them today.” The percentage of Virginians that are “Vaccine Accepting” was 80.93% on 18 November. What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are \"vaccine accepting\" on 14 January 2022? This resolves as the percentage of Virginians who are \"Vaccine Accepting\" as of 14 January under the \"Vaccinated vs Vaccine Accepting\" chart on UVA's COVID-19 VaxStat Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?", "id": "M8698", "background": "On 12 August 2021, Virginia’s state health commissioner issued a public health order that requires: all individuals aged two and older to wear masks when indoors at public and private K-12 schools in order to inhibit spread of the virus, as recommended and described by the CDC. This order then details exceptions to this order (e.g. does not apply to eating or drinking) and that those with medical conditions or religious objections can request accommodation. The state mask mandate for K-12 schools has in part been the cause of school board meeting protests. On 19 November, Virginia governor-elect Glenn Youngkin said he will seek to rescind state-level requirements to wear masks in k-12 schools. Governor-elect Youngkin will assume office on 15 January 2022. When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded? This will resolve as the date when the rescinding of the statewide order requiring mask-wearing at K-12 schools in Virginia goes into effect. The timing of when such an announcement is made is not relevant to this question — rather, this asks about the date the rescindment will be effective as of. If this does not occur before 4 May 2022, it resolves as > 4 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-11-24 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-24 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-04", "min": "2021-11-24", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?", "id": "M8708", "background": "On 19 November, the FDA authorized and the CDC recommended that all adults in the U.S. who have already completed primary vaccination with a FDA-authorized SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (2 doses of Pfizer, 2 doses of Moderna, or 1 dose of Janssen) can and should receive a booster dose. VDH subsequently urged all fully vaccinated adults in Virginia to get a booster dose. As of 21 November, 1,076,029 Virginians have received a booster dose — which translates to 12.6% of Virginia’s population of 8,535,519 (2019 figure used by VDH). What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? This question resolves on the basis of the percentage of Virginia’s population that will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022 according to VDH’s COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard. The number under “People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose” will be divided by the 2019 total population figure of 8,535,519 and then multiplied by 100 to get the percentage figure for resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-12-08 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?", "id": "M8710", "background": "On 17 November, the U.S. CDC published provisional estimates indicating a record number of overdose deaths in the U.S. Approximately 100k overdose deaths occurred between April 2020 and April 2021, which is a 28% increase from the estimated 78k overdose deaths that occurred from April 2019 to April 2020. Virginia saw a steeper increase of about 35.5%, from an estimated 1,669 deaths to about 2,262 deaths. Rapid medical responses to overdoses can prevent death. There were a total of 18,350 overdose emergency department (ED) visits in Virginia in 2020. So far in 2021 there have been: 4,662 ED overdose visits in Q1, 5,696 ED overdose visits in Q2, and 5,849 in Q3. How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? This will resolve on the basis of the total number of ED overdose visits in Virginia in Q1 2022 (1 January - 31 March). To access this data, see the “VDH Health District All Drug” tab on the Excel spreadsheet link “2015-2021 Statistics (.xlsx file)” that can be accessed here. The totals for January, February, and March will be added to get a total for Q1. If the number is greater than 10,000, then this resolves as >10k.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-31 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 10000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?", "id": "M8713", "background": "A key uncertainty is when the next peak in the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia over the next few months. When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? This question will resolve as the date of the peak weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. . The week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered. This question will specifically resolve as the last day of the week in question (e.g. if the weekly peak is for the week ending 30 April, then this will resolve as 30 April 2022). Also see this related question on what this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-29", "min": "2021-11-30", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?", "id": "M8715", "background": "A key uncertainty is when the next peak in the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia over the next few months (which includes winter) — particularly given that Virginia experienced an all-time peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations last winter, with the weekly total of cases reaching 976 for the week ending 9 January 2021. When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? This question will resolve as the date of the peak weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH “Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. . The week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered. This question will specifically resolve as the last day of the week in question (e.g. if the weekly peak is for the week ending 30 April, then this will resolve as 30 April 2022). Also see this related question on what this peak will be. 29 March clarification: Since the hospitalizations dashboard has been retired, we will resolve this question using the raw data that is accessible here.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-30", "min": "2021-12-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?", "id": "M8716", "background": "VDH classifies community transmission of COVID-19 into four levels: Low: 7-day avg of cases per 100k is 0-9; 7-day avg % positivity is =100; 7-day avg % positivity is >=10% If the two indicators suggest different levels, the actions corresponding to the higher threshold should be chosen. As of 15 November, 131 of Virginia’s 133 communities experienced moderate or higher levels of community transmission for the week ending 13 November. How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022? This will resolve as the number of communities experiencing moderate, substantial, or high levels of community transmission according to the VDH “Level of Community Transmission” dashboard as of the 7 March 2022 update for the week ending 5 March 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 133, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?", "id": "M8719", "background": "Virginian total nonfarm employment peaked at 4,091.0k (~4.1 million) in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic low of 3,611.0k in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching 3,957.7 in October 2021. When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? This will resolve as the month when the total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceeds 4 million according to FRED's All Employees: Total Nonfarm in Virginia. It will resolve as the 15th of the month in question. If this does not resolve before 1 May 2022 (months between December 2021 and April 2022, inclusive), it resolves as >1 May 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-01", "min": "2021-12-01", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?", "id": "M8720", "background": "Virginian employment in leisure/hospitality peaked at 421.6k in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic low of 216.8k in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching 357.8k in October 2021. How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? This will resolve on the basis of the thousands of persons employed in leisure and hospitality in Virginia in April 2022 according to FRED's All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality in Virginia.", "publish_time": "2021-12-08 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-15 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 460, "min": 240, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?", "id": "M8721", "background": "Virginia’s unemployment was 2.5% in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic high of 11.3% in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching 3.6% in October 2021. What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? This will resolve on the basis of the unemployment rate in Virginia in April 2022 according to FRED's Unemployment Rate in Virginia.", "publish_time": "2021-12-08 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-15 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 20, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?", "id": "M8753", "background": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following: New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively. Currently the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S. is Delta, which for the week ending 20 November was estimated to make up 99.9% of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases. When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? This question will resolve to the date that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 makes up more than 50% of estimated cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Resolution will come from credible statements by the CDC or WHO. To remain aligned with the original criteria of this question, if the date when Omicron becomes the dominant variant is estimated to be on a day between Monday to Saturday (in the US), this question will resolve on the Sunday preceeding it. Resolution may be delayed to verify the claims of Omicron's prevalence. If this does not occur by July 1, 2022, it resolves as > July 1, 2022. [Dec 22, 2021 - casens: The resolution criteria have been changed. The previous criteria are in the fine-print] Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-27 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-07-01", "min": "2021-11-28", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?", "id": "M8756", "background": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following: New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively. One way to assess the transmissibility of a new variant in a way that accounts for both its inherent transmissibility and its ability to evade preexisting immunity is to examine its growth rate over other variants. A 26 November estimate by the Belgian NRL finds that the growth rate of Omicron is ~38% per day compared to Delta — however, some have characterized this estimate as “implausibly high”. [Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December? This will resolve on the basis of the percent per-day growth rate advantage that is estimated for the Omicron variant relative to Delta, according to the credible estimate that is most recent as of 6AM EST on 23 December 2021. This estimate should preferably be made in a published study, assessment, or pre-print — so long as such an estimate includes data through at least 13 December. If such an estimate cannot be found, then estimates made by individual researchers deemed trustworthy by the question author, like Tom Wenseleers, Trevor Bedford, or Theo Sanderson, can be considered if they include data through at least 13 December. A negative growth rate (<0%) would indicate that Omicron is less transmissible than Delta. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-27 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-13 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": -50, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. CDC not classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "id": "M8758", "background": "The U.S. CDC currently defines four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants: variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. Of these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that “has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” Moreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes: Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations To date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC. Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? This question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-27 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "id": "M8758", "background": "The U.S. CDC currently defines four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants: variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. Of these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that “has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” Moreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes: Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations To date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC. Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? This question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-11-27 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?", "id": "M8762", "background": "With concerns over the Omicron variant rising precipitously around the world over Thanksgiving weekend 2021, there has been some speculation that the potentially more transmissible Omicron variant may influence unvaccinated Americans to change their risk calculus and get the jab. According to a poll conducted in late October 2021, nearly two-thirds of unvaccinated Americans were at least concerned enough about COVID-19 to regularly wear a mask. This question asks: What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022? This question will resolve as the total percentage of fully and partially vaccinated people according to Our World In Data's Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations tracker for the date of March 1, 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-01 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 18:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 68.79, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. not reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "id": "M8768", "background": "The U.S. has recently lift most restrictions on travel from the Schengen Area in Europe. According to the U.S. Department of State: On October 25, President Biden announced a Presidential Proclamation titled “A Proclamation on Advancing the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” This proclamation, which took effect at 12:01 am Eastern Standard Time on November 8, 2021, ended the travel restrictions under Presidential Proclamations (P.P.) 9984, 9992, 10143, and 10199 as they relate to the suspension of entry into the United States of persons physically present in Brazil, China, India, Iran, Ireland, the Schengen Area, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. In place of these restrictions, the President announced a global vaccination requirement for all adult foreign national travelers. There is now concern that travel from the Schengen Area will again be suspended given the detection of the new Omicron variant there. [Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. issue a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? This resolves positively if, on or before 15 December 2021, a presidential proclamation is made that suspends travel from the entire Schengen Area or at least 20/26 of Schengen Area countries. A suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not need apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.", "publish_time": "2021-11-29 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "id": "M8768", "background": "The U.S. has recently lift most restrictions on travel from the Schengen Area in Europe. According to the U.S. Department of State: On October 25, President Biden announced a Presidential Proclamation titled “A Proclamation on Advancing the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” This proclamation, which took effect at 12:01 am Eastern Standard Time on November 8, 2021, ended the travel restrictions under Presidential Proclamations (P.P.) 9984, 9992, 10143, and 10199 as they relate to the suspension of entry into the United States of persons physically present in Brazil, China, India, Iran, Ireland, the Schengen Area, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. In place of these restrictions, the President announced a global vaccination requirement for all adult foreign national travelers. There is now concern that travel from the Schengen Area will again be suspended given the detection of the new Omicron variant there. [Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. issue a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? This resolves positively if, on or before 15 December 2021, a presidential proclamation is made that suspends travel from the entire Schengen Area or at least 20/26 of Schengen Area countries. A suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not need apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.", "publish_time": "2021-11-29 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?", "id": "M8790", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. Recently, this emergency use authorization was amended to include Moderna and Janssen booster shots, as well as heterologous (\"mix and match\") booster shots. As of December 2nd, 2021, 23.3% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of December 31st, 2021 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 20, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?", "id": "M8791", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, the recently identified Omicron variant in the United States could influence the evolution of case rates in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 2000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?", "id": "M8792", "background": "FDA recently announced an emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age. CDC has subsequently recommended the pediatric COVID-19 vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age. With the expanded eligibility for nearly 28 million children in the United States, first dose vaccinations in this age group are expected to go up in the coming weeks leading up to the holidays. As of December 2nd 2021, of the 723,069 individuals in this age group, 22.9% of the population has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose in the 5-11 age group in Virginia as of December 31st, 2021 from the Vaccine Demographics tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 75, "min": 15, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?", "id": "M8793", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia and United States have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. As of December 2nd, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 1647. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for December 17th, 2021 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-10 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?", "id": "M8795", "background": "Following the full approval of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by FDA for 16 years and older, there has been a marginal increase in the number of first doses administered in Virginia. Further, with the recent emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, first dose vaccinations are expected to go up in the coming weeks leading up to the holidays. As of November 9th, 2021, 74.6% of the population of Virginia is vaccinated with at least one dose. What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose as of December 31st, 2021 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 70, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?", "id": "M8797", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-02-25", "min": "2021-12-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?", "id": "M8799", "background": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in Virginia have leveled off. Short-term forecasts from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of 6166 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-03 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 2" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-02-25", "min": "2021-12-03", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be natural before 2023?", "id": "M8815", "background": "In December 2021, it was reported that China’s Yutu 2 rover has imaged a \"mystery object\" on the horizon in Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon. The object is described as 'cube-shaped,' and was imaged at a distance of around 80 metres (260 ft). Space.com reports that \"Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected.\" Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, the \"Moon Cube\" is generally considered, in the judgment of Metaculus moderators, to be a non-natural object (i.e. a human-made object, or an object appearing to have been created or shaped by intelligent means). If the object is generally considered to be a natural object, such as a rock formation, this question resolves negatively. If there is no general consensus, the question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-12-08 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-08 01:27:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?", "id": "M8815", "background": "In December 2021, it was reported that China’s Yutu 2 rover has imaged a \"mystery object\" on the horizon in Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon. The object is described as 'cube-shaped,' and was imaged at a distance of around 80 metres (260 ft). Space.com reports that \"Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected.\" Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, the \"Moon Cube\" is generally considered, in the judgment of Metaculus moderators, to be a non-natural object (i.e. a human-made object, or an object appearing to have been created or shaped by intelligent means). If the object is generally considered to be a natural object, such as a rock formation, this question resolves negatively. If there is no general consensus, the question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2021-12-08 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-08 01:27:00+00:00", "tags": [], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice not be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", "id": "M8829", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? The Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die. Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? If a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-22 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", "id": "M8829", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? The Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die. Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? If a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-22 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", "id": "M8898", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine to nearly 100,000, according to the New York Times. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions. Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-12-11 21:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-24 02:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2022", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", "id": "M8898", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine to nearly 100,000, according to the New York Times. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions. Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2021-12-11 21:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-24 02:49:00+00:00", "tags": [ "The Economist 2022", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?", "id": "M8913", "background": "A key uncertainty in the UK is what the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will be during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. As of 4 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the UK is 811. The all-time peak was 4234.6 on 9 January 2021. What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the \"Patients admitted to hospital” graph on the UK Government's \"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\" dashboard. 15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-12-15 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 8000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?", "id": "M8914", "background": "A key uncertainty in the UK is when the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. As of 4 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the UK is 811. The all-time peak was 4234.6 on 9 January 2021. When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? This question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the \"Patients admitted to hospital” graph on the UK Government's \"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\" dashboard. 15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what the magnitude of this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-12-15 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-15", "min": "2021-12-15", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?", "id": "M8915", "background": "A key uncertainty in the USA is what the peak COVID burden on hospitals will be during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. As of 11 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the USA is 7442. The all-time peak was 16497 on 9 January 2021. What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the \"Daily Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19” graph on the U.S. CDC's \"COVID-19 Data Tracker\" dashboard. 15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-12-15 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?", "id": "M8916", "background": "A key uncertainty in the USA is when the peak COVID burden on hospitals will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. As of 11 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the USA is 7442. The all-time peak was 16497 on 9 January 2021. When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? This question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the \"Daily Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19” graph on the U.S. CDC's \"COVID-19 Data Tracker\" dashboard. 15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered. Also see this related question on what this peak will be.", "publish_time": "2021-12-15 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-15 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-15", "min": "2021-12-15", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Boris Johnson not be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M8944", "background": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019. As of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns. His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls. On December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, which the party had held for nearly 200 years. Conservative MPs have reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party. Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.", "publish_time": "2021-12-20 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M8944", "background": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019. As of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns. His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls. On December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, which the party had held for nearly 200 years. Conservative MPs have reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party. Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.", "publish_time": "2021-12-20 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-31 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Bongbong Marcos lose the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", "id": "M8980", "background": "The next Presidential Election in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution. Opinion polling on December 11, 2021 found Bongbong Marcos with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate Leni Robredo (current Vice President) with 16.2%. As of December 22, 2021, PredictIt gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site BetOnline gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win. Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? This question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports. If Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", "id": "M8980", "background": "The next Presidential Election in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution. Opinion polling on December 11, 2021 found Bongbong Marcos with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate Leni Robredo (current Vice President) with 16.2%. As of December 22, 2021, PredictIt gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site BetOnline gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win. Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? This question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports. If Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Elections" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Belfast (2021) not win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", "id": "M8982", "background": "Belfast (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by Kenneth Branagh, which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during The Troubles in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the Golden Globe Awards and 11 nominations at the Critics' Choice Awards. RottenTomatoes gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and Metacritic gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics. The 94th Academy Awards (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022. Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? This question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the 2022 Academy Awards, and will resolve negatively otherwise. In the case that Belfast is not nominated for the Best Picture category, this question will retroactively close and resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-26 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment Industry", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", "id": "M8982", "background": "Belfast (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by Kenneth Branagh, which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during The Troubles in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the Golden Globe Awards and 11 nominations at the Critics' Choice Awards. RottenTomatoes gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and Metacritic gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics. The 94th Academy Awards (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022. Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? This question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the 2022 Academy Awards, and will resolve negatively otherwise. In the case that Belfast is not nominated for the Best Picture category, this question will retroactively close and resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-26 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment Industry", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Norway not win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M8984", "background": "The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant and diplomatic boycotts. In the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks. Year Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking 2018 1 (tied) 1 1 1 2014 1 (tied) 8 1 (tied) 3 2010 4 3 4 4 2006 13 4 1 6 2002 1 3 4 3 A record 109 events will be held in 15 disciplines. Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the 2022 Winter Olympics. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M8984", "background": "The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant and diplomatic boycotts. In the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks. Year Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking 2018 1 (tied) 1 1 1 2014 1 (tied) 8 1 (tied) 3 2010 4 3 4 4 2006 13 4 1 6 2002 1 3 4 3 A record 109 events will be held in 15 disciplines. Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the 2022 Winter Olympics. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-25 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-03 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Scott Alexander 2022", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?", "id": "M9002", "background": "The US is currently experiencing a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the much more transmissible Omicron variant becoming predominant. This has been speculated to possibly produce an upcoming large spike in cases. What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? This question resolves as the maximum value of the \"7-day Moving Avg Cases\" on the US CDC website tracker for the dates of January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 1000000, "min": 100000, "deriv_ratio": 10 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?", "id": "M9003", "background": "The US is currently experiencing a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the much more transmissible Omicron variant becoming predominant. This has been speculated to possibly produce an upcoming large spike in cases. What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? This question resolves as the maximum value of the \"7-day Moving Avg Deaths\" on the US CDC website tracker for the dates of 2022 Jan 1 to 2022 Apr 1. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-01 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short fuse" ], "choices": { "max": 10000, "min": 100, "deriv_ratio": 100 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” not be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M9007", "background": "This question is very similar to the Plan C question posed by juancambeiro but with an earlier deadline and slightly different criteria to account for the possibility that restrictions may come into place before the end of the year. On 8 Dec 2021, Boris Johnson confirmed that the UK will move to \"Plan B\" COVID measures in response to the Omicron variant. These include: Face masks to become compulsory in most public indoor venues, other than hospitality NHS Covid Pass to be mandatory in specific settings, using a negative test or full vaccination via the NHS Covid Pass People asked to work from home if they can Johnson has indicated that he 'reserves the possibility' of implementing further restrictions after Christmas, such as limiting household mixing, amid surging omicron cases. [Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 January 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK before 1 January 2022. Measures announced before the end of the year but which come into force in January will not result in a positive resolution. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs.", "publish_time": "2021-12-26 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?", "id": "M9007", "background": "This question is very similar to the Plan C question posed by juancambeiro but with an earlier deadline and slightly different criteria to account for the possibility that restrictions may come into place before the end of the year. On 8 Dec 2021, Boris Johnson confirmed that the UK will move to \"Plan B\" COVID measures in response to the Omicron variant. These include: Face masks to become compulsory in most public indoor venues, other than hospitality NHS Covid Pass to be mandatory in specific settings, using a negative test or full vaccination via the NHS Covid Pass People asked to work from home if they can Johnson has indicated that he 'reserves the possibility' of implementing further restrictions after Christmas, such as limiting household mixing, amid surging omicron cases. [Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022? This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 January 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK before 1 January 2022. Measures announced before the end of the year but which come into force in January will not result in a positive resolution. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs.", "publish_time": "2021-12-26 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?", "id": "M9009", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for January 21st, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?", "id": "M9010", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for February 18th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?", "id": "M9011", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of December 21st, 2021, 31.7% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of January 21st, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 60, "min": 25, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?", "id": "M9012", "background": "Following the full approval of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by FDA for 16 years and older, and the emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, first dose vaccinations have marginally gone up in Virginia over the past two months. As of December 21st, 2021, 76.3% of the population of Virginia is vaccinated with at least one dose. What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose as of January 21st, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 75, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?", "id": "M9013", "background": "Following the emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, first dose vaccinations in this population have gone up in Virginia over the past couple of months. As of December 21st 2021, of the estimated 723,069 individuals in this age group, 29% of the population has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the population vaccinated with at least one dose in the 5-11 age group in Virginia as of January 21st, 2022 from the Vaccine Demographics tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 50, "min": 25, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?", "id": "M9014", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current model projections indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of 6166 cases. What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 1000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?", "id": "M9016", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current model projections indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of 6166 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-18", "min": "2021-12-24", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?", "id": "M9017", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current model projections indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2021, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 5000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?", "id": "M9018", "background": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current model projections indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2021-12-24 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-03-18", "min": "2021-12-24", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope not have seen First Light?", "id": "M9021", "background": "According to NASA/JWST, The James Webb Space Telescope (sometimes called JWST or Webb) is an orbiting infrared observatory that will complement and extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope, with longer wavelength coverage and greatly improved sensitivity. The longer wavelengths enable Webb to look much closer to the beginning of time and to hunt for the unobserved formation of the first galaxies, as well as to look inside dust clouds where stars and planetary systems are forming today. But by necessity, the JWST won't do any of these things until it completes an unbelievably complicated sequence of separations, thruster burns, and mechanical deployments, involving well over 300 single-point-of-failure mechanisms; what the Goddard Space Flight Center website politely calls the \"29 days on the edge,\" but most of the scientists know as the \"30 days of terror.\" Webb describes what will happen next if all goes well with this sequence: At 33 days after launch we will turn on and operate the Fine Guidance Sensor, then NIRCam [Near Infrared Camera] and NIRSpec [Near InfraRed Spectrograph]. The first NIRCam image will be of a crowded star field to make sure that light gets through the telescope into the instruments. Since the primary mirror segments will not yet be aligned, the picture will still be out of focus. At 44 days after launch we will begin the process of adjusting the primary mirror segments, first identifying each mirror segment with its image of a star in the camera. We will also focus the secondary mirror. By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? This question will resolve positively if, before February 6, 2022 at 12:20 UTC, the James Webb Space Telescope has successfully turned on the NIRCam and captured any image, according to NASA", "publish_time": "2022-01-01 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-25 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Technology – Space", "Industry – Space", "Short-fuse", "Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?", "id": "M9021", "background": "According to NASA/JWST, The James Webb Space Telescope (sometimes called JWST or Webb) is an orbiting infrared observatory that will complement and extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope, with longer wavelength coverage and greatly improved sensitivity. The longer wavelengths enable Webb to look much closer to the beginning of time and to hunt for the unobserved formation of the first galaxies, as well as to look inside dust clouds where stars and planetary systems are forming today. But by necessity, the JWST won't do any of these things until it completes an unbelievably complicated sequence of separations, thruster burns, and mechanical deployments, involving well over 300 single-point-of-failure mechanisms; what the Goddard Space Flight Center website politely calls the \"29 days on the edge,\" but most of the scientists know as the \"30 days of terror.\" Webb describes what will happen next if all goes well with this sequence: At 33 days after launch we will turn on and operate the Fine Guidance Sensor, then NIRCam [Near Infrared Camera] and NIRSpec [Near InfraRed Spectrograph]. The first NIRCam image will be of a crowded star field to make sure that light gets through the telescope into the instruments. Since the primary mirror segments will not yet be aligned, the picture will still be out of focus. At 44 days after launch we will begin the process of adjusting the primary mirror segments, first identifying each mirror segment with its image of a star in the camera. We will also focus the secondary mirror. By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? This question will resolve positively if, before February 6, 2022 at 12:20 UTC, the James Webb Space Telescope has successfully turned on the NIRCam and captured any image, according to NASA", "publish_time": "2022-01-01 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-25 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Technology – Space", "Industry – Space", "Short-fuse", "Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics not be completed fully or experience delays?", "id": "M9029", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events. Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays? This question resolves positively if all of: the Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022 the Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022 at least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events Otherwise it resolves negatively. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-26 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?", "id": "M9029", "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events. Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays? This question resolves positively if all of: the Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022 the Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022 at least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events Otherwise it resolves negatively. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-26 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 06:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate neither be blocked nor struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "id": "M9033", "background": "The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has issued a mandate that all businesses with 100 employees or more must be vaccinated or undergo weekly testing. The mandate was temporarily blocked by the Fifth Circuit Appeals Court, but the stay with lifted by the Sixth Circuit court. The mandate is scheduled to take effect on January 4th. This ruling is being challenged by a collation of states and businesses. The Supreme Court has decided to hear challenges to the mandate. Oral arguments are scheduled for January 7th. [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? This question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court of the United States blocks the 6th Circuit Court's enforcement of the OSHA Emergency Temporary Standard on Vaccines and Testing, or formally rules the mandate to be unconstitutional. If no ruling has been issued by the Supreme Court by the end of 2022, this question resolves negatively. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before SCOTUS issues a final decision. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-31 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "id": "M9033", "background": "The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has issued a mandate that all businesses with 100 employees or more must be vaccinated or undergo weekly testing. The mandate was temporarily blocked by the Fifth Circuit Appeals Court, but the stay with lifted by the Sixth Circuit court. The mandate is scheduled to take effect on January 4th. This ruling is being challenged by a collation of states and businesses. The Supreme Court has decided to hear challenges to the mandate. Oral arguments are scheduled for January 7th. [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? This question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court of the United States blocks the 6th Circuit Court's enforcement of the OSHA Emergency Temporary Standard on Vaccines and Testing, or formally rules the mandate to be unconstitutional. If no ruling has been issued by the Supreme Court by the end of 2022, this question resolves negatively. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before SCOTUS issues a final decision. Fine print", "publish_time": "2021-12-31 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 04:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?", "id": "M9053", "background": "In December 2021, China's local symptomatic Covid-19 cases resurged, with Xi'an city reporting more infections in a flare-up that has put 13 million residents under lockdown. Report: Covid cases rise in Xi’an as China battles biggest community outbreak since 2020 What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28? The 7-day average number as reported by Our World in Data will be used to resolve this question. If not available, other credible data source such as the Johns Hopkins CSSE Dataset can be used.", "publish_time": "2022-01-07 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-31 15:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 10000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will fewer than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", "id": "M9182", "background": "About 75,000 British people died of Covid in 2020 and a roughly similar number in 2021, despite strict lockdown measures. Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022? If, according to the UK Coronavirus Dashboard, the total cumulative number of deaths on 31 December 2022 is more than 20,000 higher than it was on 31 December 2021 (149,000), then this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-01-05 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 15:09:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", "id": "M9182", "background": "About 75,000 British people died of Covid in 2020 and a roughly similar number in 2021, despite strict lockdown measures. Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022? If, according to the UK Coronavirus Dashboard, the total cumulative number of deaths on 31 December 2022 is more than 20,000 higher than it was on 31 December 2021 (149,000), then this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-01-05 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 15:09:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Liverpool not win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", "id": "M9189", "background": "Liverpool are an association football team in the English Premier League, the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. As of the January 5, 2022 League Table, Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. FiveThiryEight (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league. Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League? This question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively. In the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-01-07 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-03 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", "id": "M9189", "background": "Liverpool are an association football team in the English Premier League, the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. As of the January 5, 2022 League Table, Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. FiveThiryEight (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league. Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League? This question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively. In the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-01-07 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-03 23:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers neither be blocked nor struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "id": "M9299", "background": "On November 4, 2021, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued an interim final rule requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for workers in most health care settings, including hospitals and health systems, that participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The mandate is being challenged in the cases of Biden v. Missouri and Becerra v. Louisiana. At the time of this question, arguments are being held before the Supreme Court to block enforcement of the regulation. See also Metaculus's Question 9033 Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? This question will immediately resolve positively if the Supreme Court of the United States blocks enforcement of the Emergency Regulation Requiring COVID-19 Vaccination for Health Care Workers issued by the CMS, which can be found at the Federal Register here. If the Supreme Court renders a decision to not block the regulation, then this immediately resolves negatively. If no ruling has been issued by the Supreme Court by the end of 2022, this question resolves negatively. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before SCOTUS issues a final decision.", "publish_time": "2022-01-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 20:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "id": "M9299", "background": "On November 4, 2021, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued an interim final rule requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for workers in most health care settings, including hospitals and health systems, that participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The mandate is being challenged in the cases of Biden v. Missouri and Becerra v. Louisiana. At the time of this question, arguments are being held before the Supreme Court to block enforcement of the regulation. See also Metaculus's Question 9033 Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? This question will immediately resolve positively if the Supreme Court of the United States blocks enforcement of the Emergency Regulation Requiring COVID-19 Vaccination for Health Care Workers issued by the CMS, which can be found at the Federal Register here. If the Supreme Court renders a decision to not block the regulation, then this immediately resolves negatively. If no ruling has been issued by the Supreme Court by the end of 2022, this question resolves negatively. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before SCOTUS issues a final decision.", "publish_time": "2022-01-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-13 20:01:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Short-fuse", "Short fuse", "Law – Court Cases" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Buffalo Bills not play in Super Bowl LVI?", "id": "M9315", "background": "Super Bowl LVI is coming up on February 13th. The Bills are considered one of the top teams in AFC East and likely to make the playoffs. Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI? If Super Bowl LVI occurs and the Buffalo Bills team is one of the teams competing, this question resolves positive. If the Buffalo Bills do not compete in Super Bowl LVI, or the event is cancelled, this question resolves negatively. A forfeit by either team (for example, due to covid restrictions) will be considered a negative resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-01-19 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-24 03:47:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?", "id": "M9315", "background": "Super Bowl LVI is coming up on February 13th. The Bills are considered one of the top teams in AFC East and likely to make the playoffs. Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI? If Super Bowl LVI occurs and the Buffalo Bills team is one of the teams competing, this question resolves positive. If the Buffalo Bills do not compete in Super Bowl LVI, or the event is cancelled, this question resolves negatively. A forfeit by either team (for example, due to covid restrictions) will be considered a negative resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-01-19 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-24 03:47:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Princeton have in person classes in January 2022?", "id": "M9348", "background": "Because of the omicron variant, Princeton University cancelled its finals at the end of the fall semester and issued requirements for the spring semester in which it announced that gyms were closed and students advised to stay home. Princeton undergraduates are barred from leaving Mercer County. Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022? This will resolve positive if Princeton does not have in-person instruction in January 2022 for at least 50% of its courses for the Spring term in 2022, as reported on Princeton's website or by other reliable sources.", "publish_time": "2022-01-13 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-26 16:24:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Social issues", "Social — Social Movements", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?", "id": "M9348", "background": "Because of the omicron variant, Princeton University cancelled its finals at the end of the fall semester and issued requirements for the spring semester in which it announced that gyms were closed and students advised to stay home. Princeton undergraduates are barred from leaving Mercer County. Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022? This will resolve positive if Princeton does not have in-person instruction in January 2022 for at least 50% of its courses for the Spring term in 2022, as reported on Princeton's website or by other reliable sources.", "publish_time": "2022-01-13 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-26 16:24:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Social issues", "Social — Social Movements", "Politics – US" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?", "id": "M9421", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for January 28th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-21 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?", "id": "M9422", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for February 11th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?", "id": "M9424", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of January 12th, 2022, 38.7% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of February 11th, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 30, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?", "id": "M9425", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of January 12th, 2022, 38.7% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of March 11th, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 30, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?", "id": "M9426", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-08", "min": "2022-01-14", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?", "id": "M9427", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 20000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?", "id": "M9428", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 50000, "min": 10000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?", "id": "M9430", "background": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in Virginia have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 18338, the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-08", "min": "2022-01-14", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?", "id": "M9440", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of Jan 12, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 3554. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 28th January 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-21 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 12000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 11, 2022?", "id": "M9441", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing as a result of the ongoing Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of 24 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 3554. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 11, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 11th February 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 4" ], "choices": { "max": 12000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the Doomsday Clock not move closer to midnight in 2022?", "id": "M9455", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? The Doomsday Clock is a regular publication by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying \"it is 7 minutes to midnight\". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and \"disruptive technologies\" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks. In January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to 100 seconds to midnight, its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they re-affirmed that setting. The clock has moved 24 times until now, backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times. [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022? This question will resolve positively if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting less than 100 seconds to midnight, following the next official update. If the clock is set higher, or the clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement by BAS is expected on January 20, 2022, if the BAS has no official announcement or update on the Doomsday Clock by January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively. This question will close retroactively 1 hour before the BAS begins their formal announcement. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 14:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-20 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?", "id": "M9455", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? The Doomsday Clock is a regular publication by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying \"it is 7 minutes to midnight\". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and \"disruptive technologies\" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks. In January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to 100 seconds to midnight, its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they re-affirmed that setting. The clock has moved 24 times until now, backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times. [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022? This question will resolve positively if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting less than 100 seconds to midnight, following the next official update. If the clock is set higher, or the clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement by BAS is expected on January 20, 2022, if the BAS has no official announcement or update on the Doomsday Clock by January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively. This question will close retroactively 1 hour before the BAS begins their formal announcement. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-14 14:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-20 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 not be awarded?", "id": "M9458", "background": "On January 3, 2022, Paul Christiano, of the Alignment Research Center (ARC), posted on LessWrong offering prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK). The post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows: Roughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. ELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample. ELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you. Here is how the post describes prize awards: To win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample. We’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us. Some retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below: We’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k). Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded? This resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the relevant LessWrong post. Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.", "publish_time": "2022-01-16 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-30 16:29:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", "id": "M9458", "background": "On January 3, 2022, Paul Christiano, of the Alignment Research Center (ARC), posted on LessWrong offering prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK). The post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows: Roughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. ELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample. ELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you. Here is how the post describes prize awards: To win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample. We’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us. Some retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below: We’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k). Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded? This resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the relevant LessWrong post. Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.", "publish_time": "2022-01-16 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-30 16:29:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?", "id": "M9462", "background": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine to nearly 100,000, according to the New York Times. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions. Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if, between January 1st, 2022 and February 1st, 2022, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from January 1, 2022 and February 1st, 2022. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of January 1st, 2022, will not trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-01-15 20:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-25 19:22:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Geopolitics", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?", "id": "M9462", "background": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine to nearly 100,000, according to the New York Times. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions. Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? This question resolves positively if, between January 1st, 2022 and February 1st, 2022, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from January 1, 2022 and February 1st, 2022. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of January 1st, 2022, will not trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-01-15 20:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-01-25 19:22:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Geopolitics", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EA Global London 2022 not be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "id": "M9510", "background": "Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2022 is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022). This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-23 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-25 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "id": "M9510", "background": "Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2022 is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022). This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-23 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-25 14:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Effective Altruism" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russian troops not enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "id": "M9517", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022? According to CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry, Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be) the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition Russian logistical capabilities. Mariupol is a strategically-important city close to the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have launched several attacks on the city. Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022? This question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.", "publish_time": "2022-01-25 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-14 10:18:29.851000+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "id": "M9517", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022? According to CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry, Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be) the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition Russian logistical capabilities. Mariupol is a strategically-important city close to the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have launched several attacks on the city. Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022? This question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.", "publish_time": "2022-01-25 08:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-14 10:18:29.851000+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?", "id": "M9571", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? [closed] On August 20th 2021, the TSA announced that it would extend the mask mandate on airplanes until March 18th 2022. This deadline could, of course, be extended again. Mask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplanes, either due to the carrier (airplane operator) or due to government mandates. When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? This question will resolve on the date government mask mandates are removed for ordinary airplane passengers (not e.g. airplane staff), and at least 3 large carriers have no mask mandates. Large carriers are those in the Group III, of which there are 18 currently. Mandates must be removed for all travelers regardless of prior disease history and vaccination status. Any mandate requiring passengers to wear face masks will prevent this question from resolving positively; that is, the mandate may be justified for any reason, not only to prevent the transmission of COVID-19. If this does not occur by January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as \"> January 1, 2030\".", "publish_time": "2022-01-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-18 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Aviation Industry" ], "choices": { "max": "2030-01-01", "min": "2022-01-29", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?", "id": "M9581", "background": "As the current Omicron-driven wave continues, a key uncertainty is what the peak in the number of weekly confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases in Virginia will be in the time through the end of April 2022. Virginia's all-time weekly peak in confirmed+probable cases was 118,656 for the week ending 8 January 2022. What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022? This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard. The week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered. Also see this related question on when this peak will be. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-29 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-01 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3" ], "choices": { "max": 150000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson not be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "id": "M9584", "background": "Ketanji Brown Jackson, born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021. It has been speculated that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress. Biden had pledged during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. On January 26th 2022, it was reported by NBC and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court. Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? This question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.", "publish_time": "2022-01-30 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "id": "M9584", "background": "Ketanji Brown Jackson, born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021. It has been speculated that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress. Biden had pledged during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. On January 26th 2022, it was reported by NBC and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court. Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? This question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.", "publish_time": "2022-01-30 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-07 18:20:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Law" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there not be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "id": "M9590", "background": "In honor of the mathematical constant that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Pi is also the Greek letter coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped. Prior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? This resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-30 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-01 10:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "id": "M9590", "background": "In honor of the mathematical constant that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Pi is also the Greek letter coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped. Prior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? This resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-01-30 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-01 10:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Viktor Orbán lose the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "id": "M9609", "background": "Viktor Orbán has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next Hungarian general election is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is United for Hungary, which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by Péter Márki-Zay, a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. Opinion polling has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition. Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election? This question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022. In the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-01 22:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-02 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Scott Alexander 2022" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "id": "M9609", "background": "Viktor Orbán has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next Hungarian general election is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is United for Hungary, which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by Péter Márki-Zay, a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. Opinion polling has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition. Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election? This question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022. In the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-01 22:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-02 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Scott Alexander 2022" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the gray wolf not be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?", "id": "M9693", "background": "The gray wolf (canis lupus) is a species of canine and apex predator that is native to Eurasia and North America. Prior to the 20th century, the wolf could be found across most of the United States. Over the past century, wolf populations drastically declined in the contiguous United States due to extermination campaigns and big prey reduction. However, a large population of wolves remained in Canada. In 1973, the gray wolf was added to the list of species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA). This protection rendered wolf hunting illegal and mandated that recovery plans be made for the species. Over the next half century, wolf populations in the contiguous United States recovered thanks to natural migration and intentional reintroductions by wildlife agencies. The International Union for Conservation of Nature reclassified the gray wolf from being \"Vulnerable\" in 1994 to \"Least Concern\" in 2004, and in 2020 the gray wolf was delisted from the ESA (the Mexican wolf remains listed). Management of wolf populations was returned to the state agencies, and some states swiftly reestablished hunting programs, which have resulted in the reduction of local wolf populations. Petitions to relist the wolf as threatened or endangered under the ESA recently triggered the USFWS to conduct a year-long status review, which will determine if the species once again requires federal protection. Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030? This question will resolve positively if the wolf is relisted in the Endangered Species Act as \"Threatened\" or \"Endangered\" in any region of the US, for any length of time between January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2029. The final rule must be officially published to the list in the Federal Register. This question will resolve negatively if the gray wolf remains delisted (with the exception of the Mexican wolf). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-07 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-17 18:25:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?", "id": "M9693", "background": "The gray wolf (canis lupus) is a species of canine and apex predator that is native to Eurasia and North America. Prior to the 20th century, the wolf could be found across most of the United States. Over the past century, wolf populations drastically declined in the contiguous United States due to extermination campaigns and big prey reduction. However, a large population of wolves remained in Canada. In 1973, the gray wolf was added to the list of species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA). This protection rendered wolf hunting illegal and mandated that recovery plans be made for the species. Over the next half century, wolf populations in the contiguous United States recovered thanks to natural migration and intentional reintroductions by wildlife agencies. The International Union for Conservation of Nature reclassified the gray wolf from being \"Vulnerable\" in 1994 to \"Least Concern\" in 2004, and in 2020 the gray wolf was delisted from the ESA (the Mexican wolf remains listed). Management of wolf populations was returned to the state agencies, and some states swiftly reestablished hunting programs, which have resulted in the reduction of local wolf populations. Petitions to relist the wolf as threatened or endangered under the ESA recently triggered the USFWS to conduct a year-long status review, which will determine if the species once again requires federal protection. Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030? This question will resolve positively if the wolf is relisted in the Endangered Species Act as \"Threatened\" or \"Endangered\" in any region of the US, for any length of time between January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2029. The final rule must be officially published to the list in the Federal Register. This question will resolve negatively if the gray wolf remains delisted (with the exception of the Mexican wolf). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-07 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-17 18:25:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Environment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?", "id": "M9697", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of February 2nd, 2022, 43.3% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of March 4th, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 30, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?", "id": "M9698", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for February 18th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-11 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?", "id": "M9699", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been recently peaked following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of Feb 2nd, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 3046. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 18th of February 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-11 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 8000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Carrick Flynn lose the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "id": "M9700", "background": "Carrick Flynn just announced his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created 6th congressional district. Carrick is running as a Democrat. The primary will take place on 17 May 2022. Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district? This question will resolve positively if Carrick Flynn is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-16 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – U.S. – congressional" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "id": "M9700", "background": "Carrick Flynn just announced his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created 6th congressional district. Carrick is running as a Democrat. The primary will take place on 17 May 2022. Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district? This question will resolve positively if Carrick Flynn is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-08 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-16 21:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – U.S. – congressional" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?", "id": "M9703", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of February 2nd, 2022, 43.3% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of April 1st, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 30, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?", "id": "M9704", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for March 4th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?", "id": "M9705", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Mar 4, 2022?", "id": "M9706", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been recently peaked following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of Feb 2nd, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 3046. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Mar 4, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 4th of March 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 8000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?", "id": "M9707", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-29", "min": "2022-02-04", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?", "id": "M9708", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th 2022 and April 29th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-04-29", "min": "2022-02-04", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?", "id": "M9709", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 2nd, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 7895. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-04 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 5" ], "choices": { "max": 30000, "min": 5000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?", "id": "M9719", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? On February 3, 2022, the Military Times reported that Russia had more than than 136,000 troops massed on the borders of Ukraine. Thomas Harding of the National News suggested that February is a window of opportunity for Russia to invade: One of more intriguing aspects of the near-constant talks concerning Moscow is that military commanders — from Russia and Ukraine — will know that by early March the so-called “Rasputitsa” thaw will arrive. When the winter snow melts the ground will be churned into a quagmire, making passage difficult, even for armoured vehicles. If the Russian tanks are restricted to roads then they will be more vulnerable to Ukraine's US-made Javelin missiles. Speed will be everything if Moscow is to avoid becoming bogged down both physically and politically. In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? This question will resolve on the earliest date in 2022 that either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of January 1, 2022, will not trigger resolution. If no such announcement is made by the Russian Federation or members of the UN Security council in 2022, this question will resolve ambiguously. Note that this question resolves for the date of announcements, not on the date of any invasion or military actions; In the case that some invasion occurs in 2022, which is acknowledged publicly in 2023 or later, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-06 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-24 04:53:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Geopolitics", "Short-fuse" ], "choices": { "max": "2023-01-01", "min": "2022-02-05", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will less than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "id": "M9744", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying. There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in 15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths. According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to 50,000 civilian deaths. Will this year be the deadliest yet? Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? This question resolves positively if two credible governmental or intergovernmental reports report more than 10,000 deaths in the Russo-Ukrainian War for the year 2022, or there are at least two credible, independent mainstream media reports indicating a death toll above 10,000. The death counts include both civilian and military lives.", "publish_time": "2022-02-10 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-17 09:07:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "id": "M9744", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying. There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in 15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths. According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to 50,000 civilian deaths. Will this year be the deadliest yet? Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? This question resolves positively if two credible governmental or intergovernmental reports report more than 10,000 deaths in the Russo-Ukrainian War for the year 2022, or there are at least two credible, independent mainstream media reports indicating a death toll above 10,000. The death counts include both civilian and military lives.", "publish_time": "2022-02-10 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-17 09:07:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Norway not win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M9747", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? [closed] The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant and diplomatic boycotts. In the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks. Year Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking 2018 1 (tied) 1 1 1 2014 1 (tied) 8 1 (tied) 3 2010 4 3 4 4 2006 13 4 1 6 2002 1 3 4 3 A record 109 events will be held in 15 disciplines. [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the 2022 Winter Olympics. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-06 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-14 15:58:04.545000+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Short-fuse", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "id": "M9747", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? [closed] The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant and diplomatic boycotts. In the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks. Year Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking 2018 1 (tied) 1 1 1 2014 1 (tied) 8 1 (tied) 3 2010 4 3 4 4 2006 13 4 1 6 2002 1 3 4 3 A record 109 events will be held in 15 disciplines. [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the 2022 Winter Olympics. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-06 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-02-14 15:58:04.545000+00:00", "tags": [ "Short fuse", "Short-fuse", "Series – Future Perfect – 2022", "Scott Alexander 2022", "Sports" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States not cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "id": "M9764", "background": "As Russia continues its military build up on the border of Ukraine, Western and American officials have been detailing the potential sanctions should Russia decide to attack Ukraine. One possible action would be cutting Russia off from the SWIFT payment system. RadioFreeEurope: “Some call it the \"nuclear option.\" It doesn't involve weapons though. As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT. It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies. The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.” NYTimes: The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility — something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.” Related: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023? This question resolves positively if a) Russia invades Ukraine under the same resolution criteria as this question, except removing the clause excluding \"areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021\"; and b) the United States State Department or other governmental agency announces it has cut Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, regardless of whether they are later allowed back in. If Russia does not invade Ukraine, the question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-11 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-12 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "id": "M9764", "background": "As Russia continues its military build up on the border of Ukraine, Western and American officials have been detailing the potential sanctions should Russia decide to attack Ukraine. One possible action would be cutting Russia off from the SWIFT payment system. RadioFreeEurope: “Some call it the \"nuclear option.\" It doesn't involve weapons though. As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT. It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies. The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.” NYTimes: The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility — something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.” Related: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023? This question resolves positively if a) Russia invades Ukraine under the same resolution criteria as this question, except removing the clause excluding \"areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021\"; and b) the United States State Department or other governmental agency announces it has cut Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, regardless of whether they are later allowed back in. If Russia does not invade Ukraine, the question resolves ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-11 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-12 18:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Finance" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Éric Zemmour not be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "M9790", "background": "Related question: - Éric Zemmour French president Wikipedia: Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (French: [eʁik zemuʁ]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face à l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election. Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couché on France 2 (2006–2011) and Ça se dispute on I-Télé (2003–2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Première, together with literary critic Éric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide français) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10] Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal. Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquête, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system. Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election? If credible media indicate that Zemmour will appear on the ballot of the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-02-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "id": "M9790", "background": "Related question: - Éric Zemmour French president Wikipedia: Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (French: [eʁik zemuʁ]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face à l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election. Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couché on France 2 (2006–2011) and Ça se dispute on I-Télé (2003–2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Première, together with literary critic Éric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide français) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10] Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal. Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquête, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system. Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election? If credible media indicate that Zemmour will appear on the ballot of the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-02-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Éric Zemmour lose the French presidential election in 2022?", "id": "M9791", "background": "Related questions: - Éric Zemmour in the 2nd round Wikipedia: Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (French: [eʁik zemuʁ]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face à l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election. Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couché on France 2 (2006–2011) and Ça se dispute on I-Télé (2003–2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Première, together with literary critic Éric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide français) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10] Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal. Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquête, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system. Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022? If credible media indicate that Éric Zemmour won the French presidential election in 2022, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-02-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?", "id": "M9791", "background": "Related questions: - Éric Zemmour in the 2nd round Wikipedia: Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (French: [eʁik zemuʁ]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face à l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election. Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couché on France 2 (2006–2011) and Ça se dispute on I-Télé (2003–2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Première, together with literary critic Éric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide français) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10] Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal. Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquête, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system. Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022? If credible media indicate that Éric Zemmour won the French presidential election in 2022, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-02-12 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 22:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?", "id": "M9806", "background": "In November and December 2021, Sentience Institute conducted a nationally representative survey with 1,232 US American adults about the moral consideration and social integration of AIs. The sample was recruited by Ipsos. Sentience Institute is currently analyzing the data and plans to publish the data set publicly on Mendeley Data in March 2022. This is one question asked in the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey. One purpose of the 2021 AIMS survey is to provide a baseline from which to track how the public’s moral consideration of AIs changes over time. Sentience Institute intends to run this survey again in future years. Another purpose of this survey is to test the predictions of researchers and forecasters on this topic. If, for example, the public is much more opposed to robot/AI rights than we expect, that might suggest we should put more resources into investigating sources of opposition (e.g., threat from robots/AIs, strong belief in AIs lacking the capacity for sentience). In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”? This question resolves as the census-balanced percentage of respondents from the 2021 AIMS survey who agreed (i.e., “somewhat agree,” “agree,” or “strongly agree”) with the statement \"“I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs\" out of every respondent who had an opinion (i.e., those 3 agree options, analogous “disagree” options, but not the 7th option, “No opinion”). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-13 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Short-fuse", "Human Sciences – General", "Human Sciences – Psychology" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?", "id": "M9807", "background": "In November and December 2021, Sentience Institute conducted a nationally representative survey with 1,232 US American adults about the moral consideration and social integration of AIs. The sample was recruited by Ipsos. Sentience Institute is currently analyzing the data and plans to publish the data set publicly on Mendeley Data in March 2022. This is one question asked in the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey. One purpose of the 2021 AIMS survey is to provide a baseline from which to track how the public’s moral consideration of AIs changes over time. Sentience Institute intends to run this survey again in future years. Another purpose of this survey is to test the predictions of researchers and forecasters on this topic. If, for example, the public is much more opposed to robot/AI rights than we expect, that might suggest we should put more resources into investigating sources of opposition (e.g., threat from robots/AIs, strong belief in AIs lacking the capacity for sentience). In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”? This question resolves as the census-balanced percentage of respondents from the 2021 AIMS survey who agreed (i.e., “somewhat agree,” “agree,” or “strongly agree”) with the statement “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs\" out of every respondent who had an opinion (i.e., those 3 agree options, analogous “disagree” options, but not the 7th option, “No opinion”). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-13 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Short-fuse", "Human Sciences – General", "Human Sciences – Psychology" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?", "id": "M9808", "background": "In November and December 2021, Sentience Institute conducted a nationally representative survey with 1,232 US American adults about the moral consideration and social integration of AIs. The sample was recruited by Ipsos. Sentience Institute is currently analyzing the data and plans to publish the data set publicly on Mendeley Data in March 2022. This is one question asked in the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey. One purpose of the 2021 AIMS survey is to provide a baseline from which to track how the public’s moral consideration of AIs changes over time. Sentience Institute intends to run this survey again in future years. Another purpose of this survey is to test the predictions of researchers and forecasters on this topic. If, for example, the public is much more opposed to robot/AI rights than we expect, that might suggest we should put more resources into investigating sources of opposition (e.g., threat from robots/AIs, strong belief in AIs lacking the capacity for sentience). In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”? This question resolves as the census-balanced percentage of respondents from the 2021 AIMS survey who agreed (i.e., “somewhat agree,” “agree,” or “strongly agree”) with the statement \"The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today” out of every respondent who had an opinion (i.e., those 3 agree options, analogous “disagree” options, but not the 7th option, “No opinion”). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-13 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Short-fuse", "Human Sciences – General", "Human Sciences – Psychology" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, \"Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people.\"?", "id": "M9811", "background": "In November and December 2021, Sentience Institute conducted a nationally representative survey with 1,232 US American adults about the moral consideration and social integration of AIs. The sample was recruited by Ipsos. Sentience Institute is currently analyzing the data and plans to publish the data set publicly on Mendeley Data in March 2022. This is one question asked in the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey. One purpose of the 2021 AIMS survey is to provide a baseline from which to track how the public’s moral consideration of AIs changes over time. Sentience Institute intends to run this survey again in future years. Another purpose of this survey is to test the predictions of researchers and forecasters on this topic. If, for example, the public is much more opposed to robot/AI rights than we expect, that might suggest we should put more resources into investigating sources of opposition (e.g., threat from robots/AIs, strong belief in AIs lacking the capacity for sentience). In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, \"Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people.\"? This question resolves as the census-balanced percentage of respondents from the 2021 AIMS survey who agreed (i.e., “somewhat agree,” “agree,” or “strongly agree”) with the statement \"Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people\" out of every respondent who had an opinion (i.e., those 3 agree options, analogous “disagree” options, but not the 7th option, “No opinion”). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-13 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Short-fuse", "Human Sciences – General", "Human Sciences – Psychology" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "AIMS 2021 survey: Possibility of AI sentience", "id": "M9817", "background": "In November and December 2021, Sentience Institute conducted a nationally representative survey with 1,232 US American adults about the moral consideration and social integration of AIs. The sample was recruited by Ipsos. Sentience Institute is currently analyzing the data and plans to publish the data set publicly on Mendeley Data in March 2022. This is one question asked in the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey. One purpose of the 2021 AIMS survey is to provide a baseline from which to track how the public’s moral consideration of AIs changes over time. Sentience Institute intends to run this survey again in future years. Another purpose of this survey is to test the predictions of researchers and forecasters on this topic. If, for example, the public is much more opposed to robot/AI rights than we expect, that might suggest we should put more resources into investigating sources of opposition (e.g., threat from robots/AIs, strong belief in AIs lacking the capacity for sentience). In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?” This question resolves as the census-balanced percentage of respondents from the 2021 AIMS survey who selected “Yes” to the question \"Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?\" out of all respondents who answered the question (i.e., “Yes,” “No,” or “Not sure”). Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-28 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-13 05:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning", "Short-fuse", "Human Sciences – General", "Human Sciences – Psychology" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will fewer than 1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "id": "M9875", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? In late 2021 and early 2022, several Western governments began publicly expressing concern about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine outside the previously occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The New York Times reported on January 14, 2022: “If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.” NBC reported on February 8, 2022: “Even with the disparity of forces, they can move in very fast and quite successfully, but then holding it would be a disaster,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense who left office in 2020. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraine’s military is fully aware of its weaknesses when it comes to a conventional face-to-face war and that plans for an insurgency or guerrilla-style resistance movement led by Ukraine’s military are now the government’s primary strategy — even if the Ministry of Defense has not stated so publicly. Others have been skeptical that a \"serious\" Ukrainian insurgency will take place, for instance on January 26, 2022, Richard Hanania predicted \"Washington is now deluding itself into believing that it can help facilitate an insurgency in Ukraine. This will not happen.\" If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? This question will resolve positively if Russia invades Ukraine in the year 2022, and between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed by Ukrainian armed forces in Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, we will use the terms as defined in Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023: we will consider Russia to have invaded Ukraine if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will be disregarded. If there is no such invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this question will resolve ambiguously. To determine the count of deaths of Russian soldiers, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting). Deaths may include any members of the Russian armed services, but not Russian civillians. For the purposes of this question, the deaths of members of the Russian armed services must occur within the boundaries of the nation of Ukraine as internationally recognized on January 1, 2014. Therefore attacks conducted within Crimea or the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will qualify. For the purposes of this question, the Ukrainian armed forces may be made up of members of the Ukrainian armed forces; members of the Ukrainian police, border guards, intelligence agencies, or similar government personnel; militia; or armed or unarmed civilians. Non-Ukrainians working in conjunction with Ukrainians count as long as they are not members of a non-Ukrainian military. As the exact identity of insurgents may not always be clear, any deaths of Russian armed service personnel by violence within Ukrainian borders will be assumed to be from Ukrainian insurgents unless the identity of the attackers can be determined otherwise, or the purpose of the killing is clearly non-political/military. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-20 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-24 00:39:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "id": "M9875", "background": "Related Question on Metaculus: Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? In late 2021 and early 2022, several Western governments began publicly expressing concern about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine outside the previously occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The New York Times reported on January 14, 2022: “If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.” NBC reported on February 8, 2022: “Even with the disparity of forces, they can move in very fast and quite successfully, but then holding it would be a disaster,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense who left office in 2020. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraine’s military is fully aware of its weaknesses when it comes to a conventional face-to-face war and that plans for an insurgency or guerrilla-style resistance movement led by Ukraine’s military are now the government’s primary strategy — even if the Ministry of Defense has not stated so publicly. Others have been skeptical that a \"serious\" Ukrainian insurgency will take place, for instance on January 26, 2022, Richard Hanania predicted \"Washington is now deluding itself into believing that it can help facilitate an insurgency in Ukraine. This will not happen.\" If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? This question will resolve positively if Russia invades Ukraine in the year 2022, and between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed by Ukrainian armed forces in Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, we will use the terms as defined in Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023: we will consider Russia to have invaded Ukraine if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will be disregarded. If there is no such invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this question will resolve ambiguously. To determine the count of deaths of Russian soldiers, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting). Deaths may include any members of the Russian armed services, but not Russian civillians. For the purposes of this question, the deaths of members of the Russian armed services must occur within the boundaries of the nation of Ukraine as internationally recognized on January 1, 2014. Therefore attacks conducted within Crimea or the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will qualify. For the purposes of this question, the Ukrainian armed forces may be made up of members of the Ukrainian armed forces; members of the Ukrainian police, border guards, intelligence agencies, or similar government personnel; militia; or armed or unarmed civilians. Non-Ukrainians working in conjunction with Ukrainians count as long as they are not members of a non-Ukrainian military. As the exact identity of insurgents may not always be clear, any deaths of Russian armed service personnel by violence within Ukrainian borders will be assumed to be from Ukrainian insurgents unless the identity of the attackers can be determined otherwise, or the purpose of the killing is clearly non-political/military. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-20 06:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-24 00:39:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?", "id": "M9895", "background": "In February 2022, Russia officially recognized Ukraine's breakaway republics and provided them with military support in the context of the ongoing border conflict with Ukraine. Metaculites predict an invasion of Ukraine with a high probability of 89% on the corresponding question on February 22, 2022. There is uncertainty around how this would influence the internal support for the president. Levada center provides monthly values of approval ratings for Putin and for various key institutions of Russia. The approval rating is reported to be: hovering in the 60%-70% range throughout 2011-2013; surging to 80%-90% after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine in 2014 and staying there until 2018; tumbling down to the 60%-70% range again after the retirement age was raised in Russia in 2018 and staying there until 2022. What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine? The prediction target is the value of Putin's approval rating as reported by the Levada center 3 months after the question about the Ukraine invasion is resolved positively. If the question about the invasion is resolved negatively or ambiguously, the present question would be resolved ambiguously.", "publish_time": "2022-02-24 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-24 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – European", "Geopolitics" ], "choices": { "max": 95, "min": 35, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Before April 2022, will martial law not be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?", "id": "M9918", "background": "According to Wikipedia Martial law is defined in the Russian law as a special legal regime that is introduced in conditions of external aggression or its threat. (...) In modern Russia, martial law has never been introduced. On February 24, 2022, Russia has invaded its neighbor Ukraine. This increases the probability of martial law being instated in Russia. Martial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unreliable citizens and citizens of aggressor countries. Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013? The question will resolve positive if and only if the answer is deemed positive according to credible media sources OR official declarations made by the Russian Government.", "publish_time": "2022-03-03 11:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-22 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?", "id": "M9918", "background": "According to Wikipedia Martial law is defined in the Russian law as a special legal regime that is introduced in conditions of external aggression or its threat. (...) In modern Russia, martial law has never been introduced. On February 24, 2022, Russia has invaded its neighbor Ukraine. This increases the probability of martial law being instated in Russia. Martial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unreliable citizens and citizens of aggressor countries. Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013? The question will resolve positive if and only if the answer is deemed positive according to credible media sources OR official declarations made by the Russian Government.", "publish_time": "2022-03-03 11:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-22 15:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?", "id": "M9919", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for March 11th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?", "id": "M9920", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for March 25th, 2022 from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?", "id": "M9921", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have recently peaked following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of Feb 24th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 1221. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 11th of March 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-04 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Mar 25, 2022?", "id": "M9922", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been recently peaked following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of Feb 24th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 1221. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Mar 25, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 25th of March 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?", "id": "M9923", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of February 24th, 2022, 45.25% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of March 25th, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 60, "min": 40, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?", "id": "M9924", "background": "Following the recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is increasing evidence of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. As of February 24th, 2022, 45.25% of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022? The question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of April 22nd, 2022 from the Summary tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 70, "min": 40, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?", "id": "M9925", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-20", "min": "2022-02-25", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?", "id": "M9926", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 5000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?", "id": "M9927", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th 2022 and May 20th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-05-20", "min": "2022-02-25", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?", "id": "M9928", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of February 24th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 2145. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble projections are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022 (both included) from the Locality tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 6" ], "choices": { "max": 25000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will no NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "id": "M9933", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked only once in NATO history: by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001. Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-23 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "id": "M9933", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked only once in NATO history: by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001. Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-23 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Kyiv not fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "id": "M9939", "background": "Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital city of Kyiv with the intent of taking control of the city. Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-20 18:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "id": "M9939", "background": "Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital city of Kyiv with the intent of taking control of the city. Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-20 18:16:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly not override the veto?", "id": "M9940", "background": "The UN Security Council is preparing to put forward a draft resolution that will condemn Russia for the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. However, it is likely that this resolution will be vetoed by Russia, as it was in a similar vote in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea. If Russia vetoes the resolution, it remains possible that the resolution will be taken to the General Assembly to be put up for vote through the use of U.N. Resolution 377. \"U.N. Resolution 377 is also known as the “Uniting for Peace” Resolution. In early 1950, the United States pushed through the resolution as a means of circumventing possible Soviet vetoes. The measure states that, in the event that the Security Council cannot maintain international peace, a matter can be taken up by the General Assembly. \" So far, Resolution 377 has been applied to the U.N. General Assembly a total of 5 times. If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto? This question will resolve positively if the UN Security Council vetoes the resolution condemning the attack on Ukraine, but if the UN General Assembly votes to approve the resolution separately by invoking U.N Resolution 377. The vote must be 2/3 majority in order for the resolution to pass through the General Assembly. EDIT 2/28: If the security council invokes U.N Resolution 377, but the General Assembly still votes to support the motion, then this question will also resolve positively. This is to support the main intention of the question, which seeks to ask if the original decision of the SC will be overturned through the invocation of 377 by vote of the GA. Resolution will come from a formal announcement from the UN General Assembly or from credible media reports. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-01 19:23:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?", "id": "M9940", "background": "The UN Security Council is preparing to put forward a draft resolution that will condemn Russia for the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. However, it is likely that this resolution will be vetoed by Russia, as it was in a similar vote in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea. If Russia vetoes the resolution, it remains possible that the resolution will be taken to the General Assembly to be put up for vote through the use of U.N. Resolution 377. \"U.N. Resolution 377 is also known as the “Uniting for Peace” Resolution. In early 1950, the United States pushed through the resolution as a means of circumventing possible Soviet vetoes. The measure states that, in the event that the Security Council cannot maintain international peace, a matter can be taken up by the General Assembly. \" So far, Resolution 377 has been applied to the U.N. General Assembly a total of 5 times. If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto? This question will resolve positively if the UN Security Council vetoes the resolution condemning the attack on Ukraine, but if the UN General Assembly votes to approve the resolution separately by invoking U.N Resolution 377. The vote must be 2/3 majority in order for the resolution to pass through the General Assembly. EDIT 2/28: If the security council invokes U.N Resolution 377, but the General Assembly still votes to support the motion, then this question will also resolve positively. This is to support the main intention of the question, which seeks to ask if the original decision of the SC will be overturned through the invocation of 377 by vote of the GA. Resolution will come from a formal announcement from the UN General Assembly or from credible media reports. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-01 19:23:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities not be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "id": "M9941", "background": "As Russia begins its advance inward toward the capital city of Kyiv, the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has begun to intensify. While Putin claims he has no intentions to occupy Ukraine militarily, merely to disarm it and purge it of nationalists while installing a pro-Russian government, US intelligence fears further human rights abuses through the installation of war camps. Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022? This question resolves if at least 3 of 6 major cities in Ukraine thought to be under threat from Russian attack are reported to be under Russian control by June 1, 2022. The six cities include: Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Mariupol, Kherson, and Kharkiv, many of which experienced missile blasts on the night of the invasion on February 23, 2022. Resolution will be determined through reputable media reports, or reports from the Russian or Ukrainian governments. In the case of disputed reports, or if The Ukrainian government ceases to exit but the Russian government never admits to controlling these cities; A puppet state is installed in Ukraine such that all the cities are under de-facto Russian control without either party acknowledging this; Then statements from Permanent UNSC members will be sufficient for resolution as well. If there is a report issued at any time in the future that declares a city to have fallen before June 2022, even if that report is released after June 2022, it will count toward resolution. If no such reports are available by June 1, 2025 then this question will resolve negatively. A city is considered fallen if the majority of its raions are under Russian control. To trigger positive resolution, three cities must be under Russian control simultaneously. This period of simultaneity must last at least 48 hours to count.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-26 18:41:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "id": "M9941", "background": "As Russia begins its advance inward toward the capital city of Kyiv, the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has begun to intensify. While Putin claims he has no intentions to occupy Ukraine militarily, merely to disarm it and purge it of nationalists while installing a pro-Russian government, US intelligence fears further human rights abuses through the installation of war camps. Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022? This question resolves if at least 3 of 6 major cities in Ukraine thought to be under threat from Russian attack are reported to be under Russian control by June 1, 2022. The six cities include: Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Mariupol, Kherson, and Kharkiv, many of which experienced missile blasts on the night of the invasion on February 23, 2022. Resolution will be determined through reputable media reports, or reports from the Russian or Ukrainian governments. In the case of disputed reports, or if The Ukrainian government ceases to exit but the Russian government never admits to controlling these cities; A puppet state is installed in Ukraine such that all the cities are under de-facto Russian control without either party acknowledging this; Then statements from Permanent UNSC members will be sufficient for resolution as well. If there is a report issued at any time in the future that declares a city to have fallen before June 2022, even if that report is released after June 2022, it will count toward resolution. If no such reports are available by June 1, 2025 then this question will resolve negatively. A city is considered fallen if the majority of its raions are under Russian control. To trigger positive resolution, three cities must be under Russian control simultaneously. This period of simultaneity must last at least 48 hours to count.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-26 18:41:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Brent Crude Oil stay below $140/barrel before May 2022?", "id": "M9942", "background": "“Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 8.5% to trade at $105.40 per barrel by 5:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Brent last traded above $100 per barrel in 2014. US oil prices increased 8% to over $100 per barrel. “The Ukraine crisis adds another dimension to the OPEC+ coalition's fraught politics. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil and gas, and Moscow wants prices to remain elevated. Saudi Arabia — a major US ally — will now come under intense pressure from developed economies to increase output.” “A tight market and armed conflict in Europe is a potent combination. Oil prices could settle as high as $140 per barrel in a worst case scenario where energy flows are disrupted, according to analysts at Capital Economics.” Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? This question resolves positively if the Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract reaches or breached $140/barrel before May 1, 2022. Intra-day prices will count for resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-15 18:44:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Economy", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?", "id": "M9942", "background": "“Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 8.5% to trade at $105.40 per barrel by 5:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Brent last traded above $100 per barrel in 2014. US oil prices increased 8% to over $100 per barrel. “The Ukraine crisis adds another dimension to the OPEC+ coalition's fraught politics. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil and gas, and Moscow wants prices to remain elevated. Saudi Arabia — a major US ally — will now come under intense pressure from developed economies to increase output.” “A tight market and armed conflict in Europe is a potent combination. Oil prices could settle as high as $140 per barrel in a worst case scenario where energy flows are disrupted, according to analysts at Capital Economics.” Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? This question resolves positively if the Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract reaches or breached $140/barrel before May 1, 2022. Intra-day prices will count for resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-02-25 00:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-15 18:44:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Economy", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "id": "M9993", "background": "On February 24, 2022 EuroNews published the article What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?: “Europe relies on Russia for around 40 percent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.” [...] ”Norway, Europe's second largest supplier, is delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and can't replace any missing supplies from Russia, its prime minister has said.” However, “Europe has options, including expanding nuclear and renewable energy infrastructure. Efforts by Germany and Nordic countries in recent months to expand the continent’s wind power capacity might accelerate, and some officials see the potential breakaway from Russian gas as an opportunity to pivot toward energy independence.” “The complete West will turn away from Russia,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told the Associated Press after news of the invasion broke on Thursday. “We will diversify our energy system. We will not buy Russian coal and gas in such an amount in the future.” Thus we ask: Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022? This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022 at least three European countries’ governments announce they are no longer buying natural gas from Russia. Payments to Russia for natural gas must cease by February 1, 2023 to count, but announcements can be made about the future refusal up until December 31, 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-27 02:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine", "Industry" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "id": "M9993", "background": "On February 24, 2022 EuroNews published the article What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?: “Europe relies on Russia for around 40 percent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.” [...] ”Norway, Europe's second largest supplier, is delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and can't replace any missing supplies from Russia, its prime minister has said.” However, “Europe has options, including expanding nuclear and renewable energy infrastructure. Efforts by Germany and Nordic countries in recent months to expand the continent’s wind power capacity might accelerate, and some officials see the potential breakaway from Russian gas as an opportunity to pivot toward energy independence.” “The complete West will turn away from Russia,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told the Associated Press after news of the invasion broke on Thursday. “We will diversify our energy system. We will not buy Russian coal and gas in such an amount in the future.” Thus we ask: Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022? This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022 at least three European countries’ governments announce they are no longer buying natural gas from Russia. Payments to Russia for natural gas must cease by February 1, 2023 to count, but announcements can be made about the future refusal up until December 31, 2022.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-27 02:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine", "Industry" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will less than 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "id": "M9994", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022? How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? A number of countries are actively preparing for a large influx of refugees from Ukraine as the military conflict escalates. The UN chief announced today that in the first 48 hours of the conflict, over 50,000 Ukranians have fled their country, seeking refuge amongst their neighboring countries. “The U.S. government estimates that an invasion could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the country, and Ukraine’s defense minister put the figure at three to five million. Charity Unicef on Friday also projected that up to 5 million Ukrainians could flee the country.” Other Eastern European countries, especially Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Romania, are expecting the brunt of the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Poland is actively preparing for up to a million new refugees to enter the country, and the Pentagon has sent 3,000 US troops to Poland to assist with the relocation and rehabilitation of migrants. Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? This question will resolve positively if at least 5 million people attempt to flee Ukraine and seek refugee status within other countries during the Russo-Ukrainian war beginning February 23, 2022. We will be using the definition of a refugee from the United Nations. Reports may come directly from individual country’s governments who are accepting refugees, or may come from at least five reputable media outlets all confirming at least a total of 5 million refugees. Any reports from the United Nations, including from UNICEF or UNHCR, can count as one of the resolution sources, but will not count as an exclusive source in replacement of the four other sources.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-20 16:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "id": "M9994", "background": "Related Questions on Metaculus: How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022? How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? A number of countries are actively preparing for a large influx of refugees from Ukraine as the military conflict escalates. The UN chief announced today that in the first 48 hours of the conflict, over 50,000 Ukranians have fled their country, seeking refuge amongst their neighboring countries. “The U.S. government estimates that an invasion could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the country, and Ukraine’s defense minister put the figure at three to five million. Charity Unicef on Friday also projected that up to 5 million Ukrainians could flee the country.” Other Eastern European countries, especially Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Romania, are expecting the brunt of the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Poland is actively preparing for up to a million new refugees to enter the country, and the Pentagon has sent 3,000 US troops to Poland to assist with the relocation and rehabilitation of migrants. Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? This question will resolve positively if at least 5 million people attempt to flee Ukraine and seek refugee status within other countries during the Russo-Ukrainian war beginning February 23, 2022. We will be using the definition of a refugee from the United Nations. Reports may come directly from individual country’s governments who are accepting refugees, or may come from at least five reputable media outlets all confirming at least a total of 5 million refugees. Any reports from the United Nations, including from UNICEF or UNHCR, can count as one of the resolution sources, but will not count as an exclusive source in replacement of the four other sources.", "publish_time": "2022-02-26 18:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-20 16:46:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10044", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Cherkasy has experienced major attacks in the last several days, resulting in at least one death. The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Cherkasy is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10044", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Cherkasy has experienced major attacks in the last several days, resulting in at least one death. The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Cherkasy is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10045", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Vinnytsia has experienced major attacks in the last several days, leaving two servicemen dead. The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Vinnytsia is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10045", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Vinnytsia has experienced major attacks in the last several days, leaving two servicemen dead. The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Vinnytsia is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US sanction neither Russian oil nor gas before 2023?", "id": "M10051", "background": "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has issued a number of economic sanctions against top Russian officials and on Russian trade, focusing primarily on cutting off Russian financial institutions and access to global capital. However, the US has yet to target one of Russia's most key industries, their petro-energy sector. The US currently relies heavily on Russian gas and oil imports: In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports, with Canada second at 17%. By value, Russian imports increased 71.05%, which is slightly less than gasoline imports from the world, which increased 80.53%. The Russian total was $12.78 billion. An anonymous senior official at the White House told Politico on Feb 24, 2022 that: \"'no option is off the table,' but 'starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.'\" This question explores whether the US will reverse its decision to avoid sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports. Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023? This question will resolve as the date when the United States sanctions on Russian oil or gas go into effect, in any form. These sanctions may be on the government of Russia or a Russian company, and do not need to apply to 100% of oil & gas products. Resolution will be provided through at least three reputable news reports or an official announcement from the White House.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-08 18:12:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?", "id": "M10051", "background": "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has issued a number of economic sanctions against top Russian officials and on Russian trade, focusing primarily on cutting off Russian financial institutions and access to global capital. However, the US has yet to target one of Russia's most key industries, their petro-energy sector. The US currently relies heavily on Russian gas and oil imports: In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports, with Canada second at 17%. By value, Russian imports increased 71.05%, which is slightly less than gasoline imports from the world, which increased 80.53%. The Russian total was $12.78 billion. An anonymous senior official at the White House told Politico on Feb 24, 2022 that: \"'no option is off the table,' but 'starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.'\" This question explores whether the US will reverse its decision to avoid sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports. Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023? This question will resolve as the date when the United States sanctions on Russian oil or gas go into effect, in any form. These sanctions may be on the government of Russia or a Russian company, and do not need to apply to 100% of oil & gas products. Resolution will be provided through at least three reputable news reports or an official announcement from the White House.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-08 18:12:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10056", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. Kharkiv has experienced major attacks in the last several days, wounding dozens. Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Kharkiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10056", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. Kharkiv has experienced major attacks in the last several days, wounding dozens. Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Kharkiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-23 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10057", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. The Siege of Chernihiv is ongoing. According to Wikipedia: [On Feb 24] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city. At 14:25 (UTC+2), the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city. On 26 February, Ukrainian forces claimed that they defeated a Russian force that attempted to take the city. Several Russian tanks were allegedly seized by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian government also claims that Russian BM-21 Grad rockets had hit hospitals and kindergartens in Chernihiv, though this claim was not independently verified. On 27 February, Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces damaged much of Chernihiv's city center with missiles, including the destruction of a historic cinema. Russian forces later claimed that they had completely blockaded the city. Ukrainian sources also claimed that on 27 February, 56 Tankers were destroyed by the Ukrainian Army, containing fuel for Russian military units. Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Chernihiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 03:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10057", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. The Siege of Chernihiv is ongoing. According to Wikipedia: [On Feb 24] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city. At 14:25 (UTC+2), the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city. On 26 February, Ukrainian forces claimed that they defeated a Russian force that attempted to take the city. Several Russian tanks were allegedly seized by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian government also claims that Russian BM-21 Grad rockets had hit hospitals and kindergartens in Chernihiv, though this claim was not independently verified. On 27 February, Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces damaged much of Chernihiv's city center with missiles, including the destruction of a historic cinema. Russian forces later claimed that they had completely blockaded the city. Ukrainian sources also claimed that on 27 February, 56 Tankers were destroyed by the Ukrainian Army, containing fuel for Russian military units. Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if Chernihiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 03:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?", "id": "M10080", "background": "On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a so-called \"special operation\" in Ukraine. This caused a spike in emigration from Russia. Mediazona reported that some people have been interrogated upon leaving the country, which sometimes prevented them from flying out. Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if at least three reputable media publicly report that a significant additional fraction of the Russian civilian population (= at least an additional 2% of population excluding people in military, police, and national guard, e.g., males of the age of conscription would suffice) are either forbidden from leaving the country or that’s it is technically impossible to leave. The state of the Russo-Belarusian border is immaterial to the resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 20:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-22 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?", "id": "M10080", "background": "On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a so-called \"special operation\" in Ukraine. This caused a spike in emigration from Russia. Mediazona reported that some people have been interrogated upon leaving the country, which sometimes prevented them from flying out. Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022? This question will resolve positively if at least three reputable media publicly report that a significant additional fraction of the Russian civilian population (= at least an additional 2% of population excluding people in military, police, and national guard, e.g., males of the age of conscription would suffice) are either forbidden from leaving the country or that’s it is technically impossible to leave. The state of the Russo-Belarusian border is immaterial to the resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-03-02 20:30:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-22 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10094", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. Residents of the capital city of Kyiv have braced for the arrival of a 40-mile-long convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery. Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Kyiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-04 02:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10094", "background": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. Residents of the capital city of Kyiv have braced for the arrival of a 40-mile-long convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery. Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Kyiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-04 02:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-22 23:03:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Ukraine", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will fewer than four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?", "id": "M10106", "background": "On January 15, 2022, eight individuals were arrested by the Russian authorities and charged in the context of their alleged criminal ransomware activities against Colonial Pipeline and/or as part of the REvil group. The Russian FSB claim that the group now \"ceases to exist,\" but although the crime took place against property held by US nationals, it appears that the arrested gang members will not be extradited to the U.S for trial and will remain in Russia to face the Russian legal system. Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022? To resolve to positively, at least four of the following eight individuals (Roman Muromsky, Andrey Bessonov, Golovachuk M.A., Zayets A.N., Khansvyarov R.A., Korotayev D.V., Puzyrevsky D.D. and Malozemov A.V.) must be physically imprisoned on May 15, 2022 at 12:00pm GMT. This will resolve based on publicly available information on June 1, 2022. House arrest does not satisfy this question for resolution purposes. Imprisonment can occur in any country.", "publish_time": "2022-03-08 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 18:39:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series - White Hat", "Geopolitics", "Social issues – Crime and Violence" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?", "id": "M10106", "background": "On January 15, 2022, eight individuals were arrested by the Russian authorities and charged in the context of their alleged criminal ransomware activities against Colonial Pipeline and/or as part of the REvil group. The Russian FSB claim that the group now \"ceases to exist,\" but although the crime took place against property held by US nationals, it appears that the arrested gang members will not be extradited to the U.S for trial and will remain in Russia to face the Russian legal system. Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022? To resolve to positively, at least four of the following eight individuals (Roman Muromsky, Andrey Bessonov, Golovachuk M.A., Zayets A.N., Khansvyarov R.A., Korotayev D.V., Puzyrevsky D.D. and Malozemov A.V.) must be physically imprisoned on May 15, 2022 at 12:00pm GMT. This will resolve based on publicly available information on June 1, 2022. House arrest does not satisfy this question for resolution purposes. Imprisonment can occur in any country.", "publish_time": "2022-03-08 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-15 18:39:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Series - White Hat", "Geopolitics", "Social issues – Crime and Violence" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Congress not pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?", "id": "M10144", "background": "In 2019 the CHIPS for America Act passed Congress but was not funded. In 2021, legislation was introduced in the Senate (Endless Frontiers or \"USICA\") to authorize $52 billion for the semiconductor industry. Some progressives criticize the proposed allocation as a handout to industry, though other members of Congress pitch the funding as necessary part of a broader technological race between the United States and China. Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022? This question will resolve as “yes” if the US Congress passes the language proposed in the Senate’s USICA bill or House's COMPETES Act or other similar language authorizing for no less than $50 billion directed toward the semiconductor industry and the subsequent Bill is sent to President Biden to sign. The money may be specifically tied to the CHIPS/FABS Act, to research and development, to foundry construction or maintenance, to the Defense Department, or to other tasks or entities designated by Congress or a designated managing department, group, process, or agency. President Biden does not need to sign the Bill before May 1, 2022 for this question to resolve positively. Resolution will come from an official U.S. Congress announcement. The money does not need to have been transferred or any payments made. Only the announcement that the legislation was passed needs to be made to trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-11 20:51:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series - White Hat", "Technology – Automotive" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?", "id": "M10144", "background": "In 2019 the CHIPS for America Act passed Congress but was not funded. In 2021, legislation was introduced in the Senate (Endless Frontiers or \"USICA\") to authorize $52 billion for the semiconductor industry. Some progressives criticize the proposed allocation as a handout to industry, though other members of Congress pitch the funding as necessary part of a broader technological race between the United States and China. Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022? This question will resolve as “yes” if the US Congress passes the language proposed in the Senate’s USICA bill or House's COMPETES Act or other similar language authorizing for no less than $50 billion directed toward the semiconductor industry and the subsequent Bill is sent to President Biden to sign. The money may be specifically tied to the CHIPS/FABS Act, to research and development, to foundry construction or maintenance, to the Defense Department, or to other tasks or entities designated by Congress or a designated managing department, group, process, or agency. President Biden does not need to sign the Bill before May 1, 2022 for this question to resolve positively. Resolution will come from an official U.S. Congress announcement. The money does not need to have been transferred or any payments made. Only the announcement that the legislation was passed needs to be made to trigger resolution.", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 15:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-11 20:51:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Politics – US", "Series - White Hat", "Technology – Automotive" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sweden's government not initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?", "id": "M10255", "background": "Euroactiv reported in its article Finland, Sweden to receive enhanced access to NATO intel over Ukraine: \"According to diplomatic sources, NATO leaders on Friday discussed the special role of both (Finland, Sweden) since “they need to be fully informed because of their strategic position for Russia”. [...]Over the past years, Finland and Sweden have both complained of incidents involving Russian submarines and aircraft breaching airspace in the Baltic Sea region. They have responded by tightening bilateral military cooperation and fostering more ties with NATO. [...] After deciding to remain militarily neutral in the 1990s, both eventually abandoned their political neutrality when they joined the EU in 1995. Finland and Sweden’s policies of military non-alignment have persisted to the present, although renewed threats of Russian aggression are prompting conversations of potential NATO membership.\" Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? This question resolves positively if, by December 31, 2022, Sweden formally asks NATO to establish an Intensified Dialogue for the purpose of joining the treaty, or signs a Membership Action Plan agreement with NATO. Resolution will be based on an announcement on the NATO website or a statement by the head of the Swedish government. The question will also resolve positively if NATO sets up another comparable kind of formal \"aspiring member\" arrangement with Sweden. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-17 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?", "id": "M10255", "background": "Euroactiv reported in its article Finland, Sweden to receive enhanced access to NATO intel over Ukraine: \"According to diplomatic sources, NATO leaders on Friday discussed the special role of both (Finland, Sweden) since “they need to be fully informed because of their strategic position for Russia”. [...]Over the past years, Finland and Sweden have both complained of incidents involving Russian submarines and aircraft breaching airspace in the Baltic Sea region. They have responded by tightening bilateral military cooperation and fostering more ties with NATO. [...] After deciding to remain militarily neutral in the 1990s, both eventually abandoned their political neutrality when they joined the EU in 1995. Finland and Sweden’s policies of military non-alignment have persisted to the present, although renewed threats of Russian aggression are prompting conversations of potential NATO membership.\" Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? This question resolves positively if, by December 31, 2022, Sweden formally asks NATO to establish an Intensified Dialogue for the purpose of joining the treaty, or signs a Membership Action Plan agreement with NATO. Resolution will be based on an announcement on the NATO website or a statement by the head of the Swedish government. The question will also resolve positively if NATO sets up another comparable kind of formal \"aspiring member\" arrangement with Sweden. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-03-15 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-17 09:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not default on its debt in 2022?", "id": "M10282", "background": "As Reuters reported on March 8, 2022: Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt. The country's financial markets have been thrown into a turmoil by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, raising significant concerns over its ability and willingness to service debt. [...]On March 16, Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments. \"The 'C' rating in Fitch's assessment is only one step above default, bringing it in line with the Moody's current equivalent score of 'Ca'. Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? This question will be resolved positively if before December 31, 2022, representatives of Russia announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Russia has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations: BBC News Bloomberg CNN Financial Times Reuters Wall Street Journal CNBC", "publish_time": "2022-03-16 00:15:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Economy", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?", "id": "M10282", "background": "As Reuters reported on March 8, 2022: Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt. The country's financial markets have been thrown into a turmoil by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, raising significant concerns over its ability and willingness to service debt. [...]On March 16, Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments. \"The 'C' rating in Fitch's assessment is only one step above default, bringing it in line with the Moody's current equivalent score of 'Ca'. Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? This question will be resolved positively if before December 31, 2022, representatives of Russia announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Russia has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations: BBC News Bloomberg CNN Financial Times Reuters Wall Street Journal CNBC", "publish_time": "2022-03-16 00:15:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-09 13:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics", "Economy", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?", "id": "M10283", "background": "The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused many civilian casualties. Only from 4am on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s military action against Ukraine started, until 12 midnight on 1 March 2022, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 752 civilian casualties. How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022? The question will be resolved on May 1, 2022 using data from Reliefweb. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 05:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-13 16:53:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": { "max": 16000, "min": 750, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?", "id": "M10312", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for April 1st, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-25 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?", "id": "M10313", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have recently peaked following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of March 17th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is 461. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022? This will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 1st of April 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-25 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15th of April, 2022?", "id": "M10314", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15th of April, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for April 15th, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?", "id": "M10316", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022 (both included) from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 25000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?", "id": "M10317", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. The highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 13th, 2022, with the 7-day average of 18782 cases. When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022 (both included) from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-06-10", "min": "2022-03-18", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?", "id": "M10319", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? The question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022 (both included) from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 5000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?", "id": "M10320", "background": "After a steady surge driven by the Omicron variant, case rates in Virginia for the current wave peaked around mid January and have been declining since. As of March 17th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 947. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. The lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of 129 cases. When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and Jun 10th, 2022? The question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022 (both included) from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": "2022-06-10", "min": "2022-03-18", "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?", "id": "M10321", "background": "Virginia Department of Health monitors Emergency Department (ED) visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). This data is collected from 84 hospital EDs and 21 free-standing EDs. For the week ending March 12th, 2022, 7% of ED visits sought care for CLI. What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022? This will be resolved based on the Weekly CLI Visits (Percentage) - Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022, from the Emergency Department Visits tab of COVID-Like Illness dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-03-28 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?", "id": "M10322", "background": "Virginia Department of Health monitors Emergency Department (ED) visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). This data is collected from 84 hospital EDs and 21 free-standing EDs. For the week ending March 12th, 2022, 7% of ED visits sought care for CLI. What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022? This will be resolved based on the Weekly CLI Visits (Percentage) - Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022, from the Emergency Department Visits tab of COVID-Like Illness dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-11 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?", "id": "M10323", "background": "While mask wearing rates across the country went up in response to the Omicron variant, recent case rate declines have led to relaxation of mask mandates and overall reduction in mask wearing. COVIDcast uses data from surveys of Facebook users who say they \"wear a mask most or all of the time when they are in public\" to produce estimates of the overall percentage of people wearing masks. The 7-day average of the percentage of Virginians that say they wear masks in public is 49.58 as of March 15th, 2022. What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022? This will be resolved using the 7-day average mask wearing % for Virginia on April 15th, as seen on COVIDcast mask use visualization.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 100, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?", "id": "M10324", "background": "Given high levels of vaccination and recent Omicron wave, the overall population immunity is reasonably high across the country. This has led to the introduction of metrics that track current information about COVID-19 hospitalizations in the community, as well as the potential for strain on the local health system and COVID-19 cases in the community. COVID-19 Community Levels have been introduced by CDC to aid health officials in deciding community prevention strategies, and as local context for guiding individuals. As of the update on March 10th, 2022, of the 133 counties in Virginia, 65 were classified as 'Low', 45 as 'Medium' and 23 as 'High' respectively. How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update? This will be resolved based on the number of counties that have COVID-19 Community Level of High for the update on April 14th, 2022 on the County Map available here.", "publish_time": "2022-03-18 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 7", "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": { "max": 133, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Belarus not invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10423", "background": "In the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict. In March 2022, Ukranian officials accused Russia of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to Fox News on March 23, 2022, saying \"We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus\". Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 Permanent members of the UN security council or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, \"Ukranian territory\" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders as of January 1, 2014. The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022. If no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as \"No\".", "publish_time": "2022-03-23 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10423", "background": "In the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict. In March 2022, Ukranian officials accused Russia of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to Fox News on March 23, 2022, saying \"We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus\". Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 Permanent members of the UN security council or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, \"Ukranian territory\" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders as of January 1, 2014. The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022. If no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as \"No\".", "publish_time": "2022-03-23 17:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Mariupol not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10492", "background": "The city of Mariupol has been held under siege by Russian forces for the last several weeks. The Guardian reports on 2022-03-22 that: \"Local authorities say 80% of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender Mariupol.\" Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Mariupol's raions* are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10492", "background": "The city of Mariupol has been held under siege by Russian forces for the last several weeks. The Guardian reports on 2022-03-22 that: \"Local authorities say 80% of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender Mariupol.\" Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Mariupol's raions* are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Odessa not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10493", "background": "Natalie Thomas and Jonathan Saul from Reuters write: \"Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa, which has so far been spared the intense bombardment and fighting seen in coastal areas further east, was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine.\" ... \"More than half of Ukraine's imports and exports move through the port, they said, and it is the last major city between Russian forces advancing past Kherson to the east and the border with NATO member Romania to the west.\" Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of the Odessa's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10493", "background": "Natalie Thomas and Jonathan Saul from Reuters write: \"Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa, which has so far been spared the intense bombardment and fighting seen in coastal areas further east, was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine.\" ... \"More than half of Ukraine's imports and exports move through the port, they said, and it is the last major city between Russian forces advancing past Kherson to the east and the border with NATO member Romania to the west.\" Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of the Odessa's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sumy not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10494", "background": "The Battle of Sumy began on 24 February 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The city nearly fell at the beginning of the onslaught, but the Ukrainian military has since mustered a large resistance, subsequently resulting in an increased amount of urban fighting and warfare within the city. Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Sumy's city territory are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 21:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10494", "background": "The Battle of Sumy began on 24 February 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The city nearly fell at the beginning of the onslaught, but the Ukrainian military has since mustered a large resistance, subsequently resulting in an increased amount of urban fighting and warfare within the city. Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Sumy's city territory are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 21:48:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Dnipro not be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10495", "background": "Dnipro experienced its first missile attack in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. If Russian forces look to move westwards from Mariupol, Odessa, and Kherson, Dnipro could become a possible target for invasion on the road toward Kyiv and West Ukraine. Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Dnipro's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10495", "background": "Dnipro experienced its first missile attack in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. If Russian forces look to move westwards from Mariupol, Odessa, and Kherson, Dnipro could become a possible target for invasion on the road toward Kyiv and West Ukraine. Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1? This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Dnipro's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022. Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "publish_time": "2022-03-31 07:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen not hold for its intended duration?", "id": "M10568", "background": "On the evening that started this year's Ramadan, the UN announced a surprise breakthrough on the ceasefire in Yemen, which previously appeared unlikely. They now say both sides have agreed to a full two-month ceasefire, beginning the first full day of Ramadan. This will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population. The death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a report from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP. The war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing more than 35% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause soaring increases in the price of food. UN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade. Exact terms aren't public yet, but the UN press release states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed. The two sides are also discussing a prisoner swap under which hundreds from both sides would be freed. Ceasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process. Credit: this background is adapted from this article here and this article here. Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration? This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for two months, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3).", "publish_time": "2022-04-12 14:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 19:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?", "id": "M10568", "background": "On the evening that started this year's Ramadan, the UN announced a surprise breakthrough on the ceasefire in Yemen, which previously appeared unlikely. They now say both sides have agreed to a full two-month ceasefire, beginning the first full day of Ramadan. This will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population. The death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a report from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP. The war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing more than 35% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause soaring increases in the price of food. UN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade. Exact terms aren't public yet, but the UN press release states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed. The two sides are also discussing a prisoner swap under which hundreds from both sides would be freed. Ceasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process. Credit: this background is adapted from this article here and this article here. Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration? This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for two months, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3).", "publish_time": "2022-04-12 14:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 19:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022?", "id": "M10591", "background": "Over the past several weeks, case rates in Virginia have declined from the Omicron driven peak in mid-January. As of April 6th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 756. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for April 22nd, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-15 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?", "id": "M10593", "background": "Over the past several weeks, case rates in Virginia have declined from the Omicron driven peak in mid-January. As of April 6th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 756. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022? The question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for May 6th, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-08 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, not a member of the European Union?", "id": "M10609", "background": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual singing competition between many of the member states of the European Broadcasting Union. The 2022 ESC is being held in Turin, Italy. Eurovision is regularly one of the most watched non-sports television broadcasts, with 183 million viewers in 2021. There are 40 participants in this year's competition. 24 out of the 27 EU members states are among this number (Hungary, Luxembourg and Slovakia are not competing). Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the UK are guaranteed places in the final, as the biggest funders of the EBU. While Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey are members of the EBU, they are not participating in the 2022 ESC. Belarus was removed from the EBU in 2021, and Russia was in 2022. Neither will participate in 2022. The EU is an international political and economic bloc of 27 member states. It is distinct from the Council of Europe, European Free Trade Association and Schengen Area. Rules on a tie situation are viewable here. The question will close after the semi-finals, but before the final. Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union? The question will resolve positively if a member country of the European Union (as retrievable at the EU Website) is declared the winner of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest on the Eurovision website. The question will resolve negatively if any non-EU country wins or no country wins. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-14 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?", "id": "M10609", "background": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual singing competition between many of the member states of the European Broadcasting Union. The 2022 ESC is being held in Turin, Italy. Eurovision is regularly one of the most watched non-sports television broadcasts, with 183 million viewers in 2021. There are 40 participants in this year's competition. 24 out of the 27 EU members states are among this number (Hungary, Luxembourg and Slovakia are not competing). Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the UK are guaranteed places in the final, as the biggest funders of the EBU. While Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey are members of the EBU, they are not participating in the 2022 ESC. Belarus was removed from the EBU in 2021, and Russia was in 2022. Neither will participate in 2022. The EU is an international political and economic bloc of 27 member states. It is distinct from the Council of Europe, European Free Trade Association and Schengen Area. Rules on a tie situation are viewable here. The question will close after the semi-finals, but before the final. Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union? The question will resolve positively if a member country of the European Union (as retrievable at the EU Website) is declared the winner of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest on the Eurovision website. The question will resolve negatively if any non-EU country wins or no country wins. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-14 11:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections – European", "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will China not abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10616", "background": "From Quartz, For much of the pandemic, China saw its zero-covid strategy as proof of its political system’s superiority in dealing with the virus. But Shanghai’s struggles show Beijing is now clinging to a strategy whose costs and dangers are mounting. In previous waves of covid, the strategy of mass testing and quarantining positive cases, along with partial lockdowns and border measures, was able to outpace the spread of the virus. But the highly transmissible nature of the omicron variant and its subtypes means it’s moving faster than China’s tried-and-tested methods to control it. Despite the financial hub’s two-stage lockdown—now extended indefinitely—China’s covid cases shot up from double digits in early March to over 20,000 on Tuesday (April 5). Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that China won’t relax its prevention tactics until 2023, because of a key political event that will take place in October or November. At this year’s Communist Party Congress, which takes place every five years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to announce his third term. Until it’s over, the whole system is even more geared than usual to maintaining stability and to avoiding a potential embarrassment to the party. Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? China is said to have abandoned their zero-covid strategy before June 1st 2022 if ANY of the following things become true, A member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party makes a clear public statement announcing that the central government is abandoning their policy of zero-covid, and this statement is not censured or retracted within 24 hours. Articles from both the Associated Press and Reuters unambiguously state that the government of China is in the process of abandoning their zero-covid strategy. A generic person who tests positive in China for COVID-19 is no longer legally required to self-isolate for any amount of time, after testing positive. There is at least one city in mainland China with a population of more than one million people (by metro area) which recorded at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the past 7 days, and is not currently imposing any lockdown over a significant fraction (>2%) of its residents. A lockdown is defined as any policy of major restrictions on ordinary travel, or restrictions on social gatherings. If before June 1st 2022, China has abandoned their zero-covid strategy, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-04-11 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "id": "M10616", "background": "From Quartz, For much of the pandemic, China saw its zero-covid strategy as proof of its political system’s superiority in dealing with the virus. But Shanghai’s struggles show Beijing is now clinging to a strategy whose costs and dangers are mounting. In previous waves of covid, the strategy of mass testing and quarantining positive cases, along with partial lockdowns and border measures, was able to outpace the spread of the virus. But the highly transmissible nature of the omicron variant and its subtypes means it’s moving faster than China’s tried-and-tested methods to control it. Despite the financial hub’s two-stage lockdown—now extended indefinitely—China’s covid cases shot up from double digits in early March to over 20,000 on Tuesday (April 5). Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that China won’t relax its prevention tactics until 2023, because of a key political event that will take place in October or November. At this year’s Communist Party Congress, which takes place every five years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to announce his third term. Until it’s over, the whole system is even more geared than usual to maintaining stability and to avoiding a potential embarrassment to the party. Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? China is said to have abandoned their zero-covid strategy before June 1st 2022 if ANY of the following things become true, A member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party makes a clear public statement announcing that the central government is abandoning their policy of zero-covid, and this statement is not censured or retracted within 24 hours. Articles from both the Associated Press and Reuters unambiguously state that the government of China is in the process of abandoning their zero-covid strategy. A generic person who tests positive in China for COVID-19 is no longer legally required to self-isolate for any amount of time, after testing positive. There is at least one city in mainland China with a population of more than one million people (by metro area) which recorded at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the past 7 days, and is not currently imposing any lockdown over a significant fraction (>2%) of its residents. A lockdown is defined as any policy of major restrictions on ordinary travel, or restrictions on social gatherings. If before June 1st 2022, China has abandoned their zero-covid strategy, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-04-11 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-01 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ukraine lose the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "id": "M10623", "background": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an international songwriting competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, transmitted to national broadcasters via the EBU's Eurovision and Euroradio networks, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner. The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is the upcoming 66th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. Forty countries will take part in the contest. The grand final is due to be held on May 14, 2022. Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? This question resolves positively if an entry representing Ukraine in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest is declared the winner of the contest. The question resolves negatively if an entry representing another country wins the contest. The question resolves ambiguously if no winner is declared, or if the contest does not take place.", "publish_time": "2022-04-17 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "id": "M10623", "background": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an international songwriting competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, transmitted to national broadcasters via the EBU's Eurovision and Euroradio networks, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner. The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is the upcoming 66th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. Forty countries will take part in the contest. The grand final is due to be held on May 14, 2022. Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? This question resolves positively if an entry representing Ukraine in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest is declared the winner of the contest. The question resolves negatively if an entry representing another country wins the contest. The question resolves ambiguously if no winner is declared, or if the contest does not take place.", "publish_time": "2022-04-17 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-14 17:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Entertainment" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter not agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "id": "M10663", "background": "On April 14, 2022, Elon Musk made an all-cash bid to take Twitter, Inc., private for $54.20 a share, citing a societal imperative for free speech. (SEC filing) (letter). Twitter has confirmed receipt of the letter and says its Board of Directors is considering the proposal. (press release). The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk “has heard from outside investors who may be interested in teaming up for his bid.” By December 31 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? This question resolves as positive immediately based on an SEC filing by Twitter, Inc., stating that the company and Elon Musk and/or his nominated entities have reached a definitive agreement that, if approved by shareholders and executed, would result in a going private transaction in which Musk and/or any of his nominated entities would be an acquiring party. Otherwise if no such offer has been accepted by December 31, 2022, this resolves as negative.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-25 22:40:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business – Mergers and Acquisitions" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "id": "M10663", "background": "On April 14, 2022, Elon Musk made an all-cash bid to take Twitter, Inc., private for $54.20 a share, citing a societal imperative for free speech. (SEC filing) (letter). Twitter has confirmed receipt of the letter and says its Board of Directors is considering the proposal. (press release). The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk “has heard from outside investors who may be interested in teaming up for his bid.” By December 31 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? This question resolves as positive immediately based on an SEC filing by Twitter, Inc., stating that the company and Elon Musk and/or his nominated entities have reached a definitive agreement that, if approved by shareholders and executed, would result in a going private transaction in which Musk and/or any of his nominated entities would be an acquiring party. Otherwise if no such offer has been accepted by December 31, 2022, this resolves as negative.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 23:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-25 22:40:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Business – Mergers and Acquisitions" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?", "id": "M10752", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 20th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 156. What will be the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022? This question will resolve as the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations on May 6, 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 10, "deriv_ratio": 400 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "id": "M10753", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "id": "M10753", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?", "id": "M10754", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1,000 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?", "id": "M10754", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. As of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1,000 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-20 19:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 8" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?", "id": "M10818", "background": "Following the decline of Omicron wave in Virginia, case rates have begun increasing since April 2022. As of April 27th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 1358. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022? This question will resolve as the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for May 13, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-06 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?", "id": "M10819", "background": "Following the decline of Omicron wave in Virginia, case rates have begun increasing since April 2022. As of April 27th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 1358. What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022? The question will resolve as the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for May 27, 2022 from the Cases and Deaths by Date Reported tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Data Insights Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": { "max": 15000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?", "id": "M10820", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022? This question will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations\" on May 13, 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-06 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?", "id": "M10821", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. What will be the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022? This question will resolve as the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations on May 27, 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": { "max": 4000, "min": 0, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 500 before June 10, 2022?", "id": "M10826", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?", "id": "M10826", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia not cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?", "id": "M10827", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?", "id": "M10827", "background": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022? This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source.", "publish_time": "2022-04-29 16:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-20 16:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)", "Tournament -- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making -- Round 9" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia not officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "id": "M10845", "background": "On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a \"Special Military Operation\" in Ukraine. Western officials, including UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace, have suggested that Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, enabling the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. May 9, known as \"Victory Day,\" commemorates Russia's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Putin may leverage its symbolic significance to rally the Russian public and announce a major escalation of hostilities. Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? The question resolves positively if the following conditions are met: Three credible media sources report that Russian President Vladimir Putin, or another representative of the Russian government, has officially announced that Russia is at war with Ukraine or that Russia is preparing to declare war on Ukraine. The Russian announcement occurs no later than 11:59 PM (Moscow Standard Time) on May 9, 2022. \"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times. Related question: By July 31, 2022, will Russia formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine?", "publish_time": "2022-05-05 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-08 20:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine", "Short fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "id": "M10845", "background": "On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a \"Special Military Operation\" in Ukraine. Western officials, including UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace, have suggested that Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, enabling the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. May 9, known as \"Victory Day,\" commemorates Russia's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Putin may leverage its symbolic significance to rally the Russian public and announce a major escalation of hostilities. Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? The question resolves positively if the following conditions are met: Three credible media sources report that Russian President Vladimir Putin, or another representative of the Russian government, has officially announced that Russia is at war with Ukraine or that Russia is preparing to declare war on Ukraine. The Russian announcement occurs no later than 11:59 PM (Moscow Standard Time) on May 9, 2022. \"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times. Related question: By July 31, 2022, will Russia formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine?", "publish_time": "2022-05-05 22:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-08 20:59:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine", "Short fuse" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 not resolve ambiguously?", "id": "M10858", "background": "A previous Metaculus question asked \"at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government.\" The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia withdrew from Kyiv. Several commenters have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have discussed whether an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have also suggested that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative. Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously? If the Russian troops question resolves ambiguously before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve positively. If the Russian troops question resolves positively or negatively before 2030-01-01, or if the Russian troops question is not resolved at all before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-05-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 15:54:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?", "id": "M10858", "background": "A previous Metaculus question asked \"at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government.\" The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia withdrew from Kyiv. Several commenters have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have discussed whether an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have also suggested that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative. Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously? If the Russian troops question resolves ambiguously before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve positively. If the Russian troops question resolves positively or negatively before 2030-01-01, or if the Russian troops question is not resolved at all before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.", "publish_time": "2022-05-08 04:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 15:54:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Metaculus Itself", "Geopolitics – Armed Conflict", "Ukraine" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?", "id": "M10956", "background": "From the wikipedia entry John C. Depp, II v. Amber Laura Heard (CL-2019-2911)[2] is an ongoing defamation trial in Fairfax County, Virginia, that began on 11 April 2022.[3] The parties are actors Johnny Depp (plaintiff) and Amber Heard (defendant), who were married from 2015 to 2017, after beginning a relationship in 2012.[4] In February 2019, Depp sued Heard over a December 2018 op-ed she wrote for The Washington Post, in which she had written: \"Two years ago, I became a public figure representing domestic abuse.\" Although Heard did not mention Depp by name in the op-ed article, Depp claimed that the damage caused by the article caused extensive financial losses to his career and damaged his ability to profit from his vocation. Heard had described herself \"seeing, in real time, how institutions protect men accused of abuse.\"[5][6] [Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard? Johnny Depp is seeking damages of $50M USD. This question will resolve to the total dollar amount awarded to Depp as a result of the ongoing jury trial. In the event that no money is awarded or the jury does not find Heard responsible or the trial ends without a verdict this question will resolve to $0 USD. In the event that this trial results in a monetary award for Amber Heard, including legal fees or other penalties imposed by a court, this question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded Amber Heard. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-05-24 09:00:00+00:00", "close_time": "2022-05-31 04:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Short-fuse", "Social issues – Crime and Violence" ], "choices": { "max": 100000000, "min": -100000000, "deriv_ratio": 1 }, "qtype": "num" }, { "question": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) not win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "id": "M11190", "background": "Polls close June 2, 2022. Will Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain their majority in Ontario? Party leaders' political fate at stake in Ontario's election. Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02? Question resolve yes if CBC reports PC has won a majority. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-06-02 18:40:44+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-03 01:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections — Canada" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" }, { "question": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "id": "M11190", "background": "Polls close June 2, 2022. Will Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain their majority in Ontario? Party leaders' political fate at stake in Ontario's election. Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02? Question resolve yes if CBC reports PC has won a majority. Fine print", "publish_time": "2022-06-02 18:40:44+00:00", "close_time": "2022-06-03 01:00:00+00:00", "tags": [ "Elections — Canada" ], "choices": [ "yes", "no" ], "qtype": "t/f" } ]