Using decision-making logic to produce the best long-term outcomes has become its own science—one that employs probabilities and statistics, game theory, and other tools. While many of these tools are helpful, the fundamentals of effective decision making are relatively simple and timeless—in fact they are genetically encoded in our brains to varying degrees. Watch animals in the wild and you’ll see that they instinctively make expected value calculations to optimize the energy they expend to find food. Those that did this well prospered and passed on their genes through the process of natural selection; those that did it poorly perished. While most humans who do this badly won’t perish, they will certainly be penalized by the process of economic selection.

As previously explained, there are two broad approaches to decision making: evidence/logic-based (which comes from the higher- level brain) and subconscious/emotion-based (which comes from the lower-level animal brain).
Logic, reason, and common sense are your best tools for synthesizing reality and understanding what to do about it.

Be wary of relying on anything else. Unfortunately, numerous tests by psychologists show that the majority of people follow the lower-level path most of the time, which leads to inferior decisions without their realizing it. As Carl Jung put it, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.” It’s even more important that decision making be evidence-based and logical when groups of people are working together. If it’s not, the process will inevitably be dominated by the most powerful rather than the most insightful participants, which is not only unfair but suboptimal. Successful organizations have cultures in which evidence-based decision making is the norm rather than the exception.
Make your decisions as expected value calculations.
