Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
203 AM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows split flow with a deepening trough over the West Coast extending southwest from the rest of the trough over the Northern Plains. Due to the CAA today, lows will be cooler than last night. Monday night the upper level trough that is currently over the West Coast will move onto the Southern Plains. As it does so the northern edge of the trough will graze the southern part of the forecast area. Pattern will remain fairly progressive through the extended periods with fairly zonal flow and a series of short wave troughs and ridges moving over area. Operational GFS the most aggressive with one of these troughs this coming weekend, but based on bulk of available data do not think solution is likely and will maintain a dry forecast for now.
Coastal ridge and associated high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through at least Tuesday night. Though some isolated freezing fog may present itself tonight, thinking continued ridging may allow for greater coverage of freezing fog Monday night into Tuesday.
425 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 High pressure was located over the Northland this morning with areas of clear skies and a patch of lower ceilings moving across the region. An area of low pressure was located over Lake Winnipeg and will move to the southeast along the International Border today and bring a cold front through Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 20s.
416 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 Southwesterly flow aloft was present across the Plains with an upper trough located near Baja California. Northerly winds will remain light today, keeping CAA to a minimum with highs expected to be in the lower 40s, near normal for this time of year. This evening, an upper level jet is progged to strengthen as it moves around the base of the upper trough. While the upper levels are expected to be saturated, a lack of moisture at the low levels looks to hinder any chance for precipitation tonight.
Relatively active 72 hour period is in store for the region courtesy of a slow moving upper low off the SRN CA coast and a frontal boundary currently near a Texarkana to Waco TX line. Guidance continues to indicate the highest rainfall amounts remaining just to our north, though this will bear watching through the day. Slightly lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures are expected on the cool side of the boundary, while areas to the south remain in the soup. Dry and cool weather to end the work week in the wake of the frontal passage, with warmer weather and increasing rain chances for the weekend.
Should see mainly clear skies across southern Wisconsin by daybreak, with high pressure keeping the skies mostly clear through the day. There's some uncertainty if there will be enough saturation in the low levels for MVFR ceilings. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring a return of mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures right about normal for this time of the year.
551 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 A cold front will move through Arkansas today. Today Through Tuesday Night Southwest flow is over Arkansas this morning with an upper low pressure system over southern California. This low moves into Arizona Tuesday and into New Mexico Tuesday night as the southwest flow continues over Arkansas. Moisture is streaming into the state ahead of a cold front that is roughly from Salem to Mena.
The upper level low off the Baja California coast is expected to slide ENE today, reaching southern Arizona late tonight. Moisture wrapping around the low arrives overnight and lingers through Tuesday.
552 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 Temperatures plummeted last evening in some spots and freezing fog and stratus developed in others, leaving highly variable readings ranging from 15 below to 20 above. The first, a cold front, will do so this afternoon and the other, a warm front, will come through Tuesday afternoon. Clouds will increase again and saturate a deep DGZ with the passage of the cold front today.
656 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Rain is expected today as a slow moving cold front crosses the region.
555 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 High pressure was located over the Northland this morning with areas of clear skies and a patch of lower ceilings moving across the region. An area of low pressure was located over Lake Winnipeg and will move to the southeast along the International Border today and bring a cold front through Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 20s.
High pressure to our east is giving the area a light WSW surface gradient, and combined with the cloud cover is giving temps a range from the mid teens into the lower 20s. Main wx concerns in the short term period will focus on the cutoff upper low that will pass south of the CWA later tonight into Tuesday. A slow return to NW flow aloft for the entire CWA thru the day Tuesday on into the midweek timeframe as a secondary upper trough will be needed to kick the cutoff system well east of the area.
Cold front in western ND will sweep across the Red River valley today. Thermal trough moves across the area tonight. Upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts east and flattens. Upper level jet on north periphery noses into southwest Ontario by tue afternoon with warmer air moving in from the west Tue.
502 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 A cold front has shifted just southeast of the forecast area early this morning, but lingering post frontal light rain will continue across southeast MO and southwest IL this morning, finally shifting southeast of our forecast region by noon. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with surface ridging continuing across the region with any precipitation south of the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today and right at seasonal normals.
A strong upper level ridge is centered offshore and is extending into the region. This ridge will remain in place through midweek. At the surface, a thermal trough is present along the coast. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday due to the high pressure ridge remaining in place.
However, late tonight through Tuesday, isolated showers are possible over roughly the northern half of the BRO CWFA as a weak cold front oozes closer to the region from the north.
High pressure will remain centered just offshore today.
629 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Areas of fog are expected to diminish later this morning as a cold front drops across the area.
641 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Aviation High pressure will build in today.
Weak ridging will bring tranquil conditions to most areas on Tuesday.
Strong and gusty winds will continue over the higher terrain of the North Bay Mountains and East Bay Hills through Tuesday morning.
The upper trough over the northern Plains will have little influence on the seasonable temperatures given the sfc pressure gradient. Behind the sfc front, high pressure will build in from the west.
There will also be a wind shift today as high pressure builds in over the Central Plains and colder air finally infiltrates into the Panhandles.
439 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 (Today and Tonight) The cold front was near the southern border of our forecast area early this morning, and will continue moving farther south across Texas today. Aloft, an upper low will move into the northern Baja region today, and to near the border with Arizona and northern Mexico by 6 AM Tuesday. Out ahead of this low, a disturbance embedded in the southwest flow aloft will move over our area today.
Models in fairly good agreement pushing heavy rain south and east of the mid-state Tue morning and that will gives us a break from widespread heavy rain Tue into early Tue night as warm front remains well south. Closed upper low over the southwest US opens and accelerates east, pushing into the nations mid-section Wed night. This will initially drag a warm front across Wed afternoon, then a trailing cold front late Wed night. We will be drying out Thu as upper trough passes. A slow-moving cold front is situated to our immediate northwest as we start the day, with a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms streaming across Middle Tennessee ahead of the front. Also, LLWS is included in the first couple of TAF lines as the low-level jet is rather pronounced on the warm side of the boundary.
258 AM PST Mon Feb 10 2020 Strong gusty winds will continue across the Sierra ridges today with much less wind for lower elevations.
East-northeast winds are expected today through Tuesday, with locally gusty conditions possible across exposed ridges.
429 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Zonal flow aloft continues over the region downstream of positively tilted longwave trough over western CONUS. Expect pattern aloft to amplify through mid week as western trough deepens while downstream ridging builds over SE Gulf of Mexico into W Atlantic.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the region, and a generally E to SE flow is advecting warm, humid air back into the region.
Water vapor loop indicated the upper low was located over southern MAN and should move to the east southeast. Cold front in western ND will sweep across the Red River valley today. Thermal trough moves across the area tonight. Upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts east and flattens. Upper level jet on north periphery noses into southwest Ontario by tue afternoon with warmer air moving in from the west Tue.
Breezy conditions are expected again today courtesy of the interaction between high and low pressure. Winds should greatly diminish shortly after sunset due to a weak cold front easing closer to the region from the north. However, late tonight through Tuesday, isolated showers are possible over roughly the northern half of the BRO CWFA as a weak cold front oozes closer to the region from the north.
222 AM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 Latest upper air analysis coupled with water vapor imagery depicts a positively-tilted trough across the Northern Rockies with a southern stream, closed low meandering off the southern California coast. As the trough axis pivots through, cold air aloft (500 mb temps 35 to 40C below) will result in relatively steep lapse rates across the region. Broad lift with the passage of the trough and surface front/trough coupled with these lapse rates will yield isolated areas of convective snow showers.
Today Through Tuesday Night Southwest flow is over Arkansas this morning with an upper low pressure system over southern California. This low moves into Arizona Tuesday and into New Mexico Tuesday night as the southwest flow continues over Arkansas. Moisture is streaming into the state ahead of a cold front that is roughly from Salem to Mena.
653 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 A cold front will slowly exit to the southeast on Monday morning, with cloudy and cool conditions prevailing through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front on Tuesday.
355 AM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 Radar and observations show scattered snow showers making progress across NE Montana early this morning with a cold frontal passage. Some temperature recovery is expected on Tuesday before the next cold front pushes through the region. Southwest of Fort Peck Lake may see temperatures a few degrees milder than this range, but still notably cooler than highs on Tuesday. In terms of precipitation, there is a chance for a rain snow mix transitioning to snow with the cold frontal passage Tuesday into Tuesday night, but again, precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side.
The bulk of this will fall in the evening and should occur with temperatures above freezing.
Cooler temperatures and even another chance for some more precipitation coming our way as we head into the end of the week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A cut off low pressure system currently over northern Baja California has provided the area with some appreciable amounts of rain and snow thus far. The highest concentration of precip amounts will be across San Diego County today.
High pressure was located over the Northland this morning with areas of clear skies and a patch of lower ceilings moving across the region. An area of low pressure was located over Lake Winnipeg and will move to the southeast along the International Border today and bring a cold front through Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 20s.
123 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Aviation High pressure will build in today.
152 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 WV imagery this afternoon again depicts a positively tilted longwave trof extending from srn CN swwd to near the CA coast. Within the trof, several vort lobes are evident, the most prominent of which are located off the Baja CA coast, near the UT/ID/WY border, across ern MT/the wrn Dakotas, and farther north into SK/MB. Satellite trends indicate general deformation of these vort lobes along the trof axis, with little change to the overall pattern.
As such the low level steering flow will remain from the east and southeast.
Flow aloft is zonal and an area of high pressure is building in from the east down at the surface. The building ridge has been advecting warm and fairly moist air northward across the peninsula from the Caribbean. This afternoon, temperatures are expected to top out in the low 80s.
Expect rain chances to start increasing again after midnight tonight as an upper level low moves into the NM/AZ border region and isentropic lift (aka overrunning) strengthens. The trough will continue to move east further into NM during the day Tuesday, with isentropic lift continuing to bring periods of rain and cloudy conditions. With the cloudy conditions and continued cold air advection in northerly surface flow, overnight lows tonight (low 30s in the Big Country, mid 30s in the Concho Valley/Heartland and upper 30s to low 40s in the I-10 corridor) will likely be only a couple degrees lower than the highs Tuesday (mid to upper 30s in the Big Country, upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere). It may even get cold enough in the northwest Big Country for a mix of rain and freezing rain tomorrow morning.
With high pressure set in place across much of the high plains, weak surface winds expected under such a weak pressure gradient. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the low 40s due to the increased cloud cover continuing this afternoon and overnight through much of Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the 20s under the cloud cover with afternoon highs staying int the mid to upper 30s with low 40s up north as improving sky conditions extend across northwest Kansas along the I-70 corridor due to an upper level ridge setting back up across the Rockies.
Given the low FFG values, these amounts could pose a flooding problem later today. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 54 63 47 64 / 100 100 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 50 60 45 60 / 100 100 80 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 50 50 58 43 59 / 100 100 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 49 57 42 57 / 90 90 90 40 70 NC.
High pressure will bring dry weather back to the area through Tuesday night. A large upper trough in concert with a very strong upper level jet will develop low pressure across eastern Texas and Louisiana mid week, with the system pushing quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley and into New England.
A cold front will move through Arkansas today. Today Through Tuesday Night Southwest flow is over Arkansas this morning with an upper low pressure system over southern California. This low moves into Arizona Tuesday and into New Mexico Tuesday night as the southwest flow continues over Arkansas. Moisture is streaming into the state ahead of a cold front that is roughly from Salem to Mena.
1136 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Update High pressure will build in today.
400 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Mid and upper level ridge remains centered over the Yucatan Peninsula and stretches into the Ohio River Valley. Upstream the next trough is digging across the southern California coast and deepening. At the surface a ridge axis lies to our north with the center of the associated high pressure cell well to our northeast over the western Atlantic. Upstream a decaying front is limping through the Central Plains with the next high pressure cell beginning to emerge on its heels along the Colorado Rockies. Closer to home, the ridge axis to our north is providing the region with east to southeast low level steering flow.
With this break in the action, and very little freezing precipitation impacts at this time, will hold off on advisory but that may have to be issued later today or early Tuesday. As upper low rounds the corner just south of Arizona overnight, lift will increase with precipitation becoming more widespread across the region especially between 3 am and 6 am. Precipitation type problematic but suffice to say there will be a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and light snow across most of the area on Tuesday. This pattern of an open trough.
1027 AM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 Latest upper air analysis coupled with water vapor imagery depicts a positively-tilted trough across the Northern Rockies with a southern stream, closed low meandering off the southern California coast. As the trough axis pivots through, cold air aloft (500 mb temps 35 to 40C below) will result in relatively steep lapse rates across the region. Broad lift with the passage of the trough and surface front/trough coupled with these lapse rates will yield isolated areas of convective snow showers.
Given the low FFG values, these amounts could pose a flooding problem later today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 54 63 47 64 / 100 100 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 50 60 45 60 / 100 100 80 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 50 50 58 43 59 / 100 100 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 49 57 42 57 / 90 90 90 40 70 NC.
Looking upstream, a weak cold front is pushing through western Minnesota.
Rux Previous Discussion: Radar and observations show scattered snow showers making progress across NE Montana early this morning with a cold frontal passage. Some temperature recovery is expected on Tuesday before the next cold front pushes through the region. Southwest of Fort Peck Lake may see temperatures a few degrees milder than this range, but still notably cooler than highs on Tuesday. In terms of precipitation, there is a chance for a rain snow mix transitioning to snow with the cold frontal passage Tuesday into Tuesday night, but again, precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side.
/Tonight through Monday/ High pressure across the area has allowed for abundant sunshine today, although with temperatures in the 20s north to just above freezing south, the snowpack has remained largely unchanged today as viewed via GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB. This will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler tomorrow than what we've seen this afternoon.
Thus far, most in cloud icing has been reported in the flight levels as, despite sub-freezing temperatures in the lowest 1-2kft layer, the precipitation itself has been sufficiently warm to not cause issues.
Southeast winds begin today and will help to moisten up the lower levels.
1244 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 A cold front will slowly exit to the southeast today, with cloudy and cool conditions prevailing through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front on Tuesday.
Upper ridge centered offshore this morning. Coastal ridge and associated high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through at least Tuesday night. Though some isolated freezing fog may present itself tonight, thinking continued ridging may allow for greater coverage of freezing fog Monday night into Tuesday.
1028 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Rain will slowly taper off through Tuesday as high pressure creeps ito the region.
A minor shrtwv trof is progged to pass across the Trans Pecos late this afternoon and into SE NM/PB this overnight with -SHRA. Meanwhile a cold mid-level trof will be approaching from the w. By 21Z a 140kt 300 mb jet will have moved into the area e of the said trof and precip will start to develop, especially along and w of said jet. NAM12 is the coldest of the models, probably because it is a little earlier/more e with the mid-level trof. Warmer Wed PM with said sunshine and downslope winds, highs mostly in the 40s and 50s. Warmer wx Fri-Mon with breezy winds Fri/Sat.
Some sleet has been reported but expect a transition to mainly freezing rain and rain sooner than later.
And the shallow cold front will also shift southeast through the area tonight. The cold front will continue to shift southeast of the I-20 and even I-85 corridor Tuesday. The next surge of isentropic ascent and pressure falls will occur well to our west Tuesday and Tuesday evening ahead of the next trough exiting the desert SW.
A weak short wave trough in the northerly flow aloft will increase surface winds to 15-25 mph in the Magic Valley this afternoon.
225 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Rain will slowly taper off through Tuesday as high pressure creeps ito the region.
154 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 High pressure over southeast Iowa is mainly bringing sunshine, and seasonally mild conditions to snow free areas in the south half, and a chilly day with patchy stratus north. This evening, clear skies over snow should allow for another drop into the lower to mid teens, while over snow free areas, lower to mid 20s are expected.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to remain nearly stationary tonight through Tuesday extending back westward into the Florida Peninsula. Strong ridging aloft will continue to work in concert with high pressure at the surface to keep South Florida under warm and mostly dry conditions through the period. Only a brief interruption in negligible rain chances is forecast for early this weekend, as a western CONUS, positively tilted trough swings over the Southern Plains.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue today as a slow moving cold front moves across the area. As the warmer air moves over the stable cooler airmass at the surface, the storms will be elevated and have a low potential to be severe with the main threat being hail. For temperatures, with cooler air in place tonight, lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Tuesday, rain and cloud cover will reduce the diurnal effect and highs for the day will be just a few degrees warmer in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
With regard to possible flurries, cannot rule out some scattered flakes squeezed out cooler air works into the region. Some high-res soundings indicate marginal stability in the moisture layer as well, which could support the spotty returns seen in the high-res QPF/projected radar guidance.
317 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Rain will slowly taper off through Tuesday as high pressure creeps ito the region.
Will have to watch for freezing drizzle potential as a result.
438 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020 WV imagery this afternoon again depicts a positively tilted longwave trof extending from srn CN swwd to near the CA coast. Within the trof, several vort lobes are evident, the most prominent of which are located off the Baja CA coast, near the UT/ID/WY border, across ern MT/the wrn Dakotas, and farther north into SK/MB. Satellite trends indicate general deformation of these vort lobes along the trof axis, with little change to the overall pattern.
These winds are developing in response to a low pressure system tracking through srn Canada.
404 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Drier air is forecast to gradually filter in tonight and Tuesday behind a slow moving cold front.
Low pressure will move away from the region as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. Satellite imagery show just a few wrap around clouds over Kern County as a low pressure center moves across Baja California. Moderate to locally strong northeast flow continues over the forecast area with the low spinning to the southeast of the area. Winds will diminish overnight and come to an end on Tuesday as the low moves into Arizona.