Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1048 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights mean layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, and an upper-level low over Florida and the Bahamas. An inverted trough is north of the Windward Passage and will move west- northwest over the next few days. The NHC gives this tropical wave 40% chances of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico away from the Florida Keys.
A long wave trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest is still expected to progress eastward over the next few days and models are in good agreement on the timing/placement of this system. The center of the upper level low is expected to track well north - from Wyoming to South Dakota and Minnesota - but will induce lee side cyclogenesis near Nebraska and Kansas.
926 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure will remain in control through late week.
High pressure to the north of Florida will keep easterly winds in place through the week and into the weekend, with nocturnal surges bringing wind speeds up to cautionary or low end advisory levels each evening.
/issued 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) The combination of weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft and the proximity of a weak upper low over the Texas Hill Country, will result in showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through Wednesday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure will remain in control through late week.
A weak temporary upper ridge will build over the area Wednesday.
Upper trough axis has entered the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, with broad southwesterly flow persisting from the Desert Southwest through the Midwest regions. With no additional focus for lift this evening in our area as the upper trough lifts across the Dakotas, have kept pops low through Wednesday afternoon. Broken high clouds linger through the evening hours, inhibiting overnight lows to the low and middle 70s.
Well-defined mid level high pressure is located over nrn GA with winds at 700-500mb northeasterly. Have adjusted POPs a bit early Wednesday morning, keeping the low chance of a shower (around 10-20 percent) mainly for coastal counties. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s inland, and upper 70s at the coast.
The main upper level trough is currently moving overhead this afternoon which is spawning the last round of scattered showers to the area. In the wake of the low, upper level ridging will spread across the western U. Latest model guidance indicates yet another trough approaching the area this weekend which will likely cool interior temperatures back to around normal and bring another chance for showers to the area by late in the weekend.
531 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Upper-level analysis shows low pressure over the Pacific Northwest, a trough over the western CONUS, and southwest flow over the northern plains. Surface map depicts high pressure over ND and northeastern SD, and a warm/stationary front draped over NE. Wednesday afternoon and evening, stronger upper-level energy will push into the region with the upper trough, bringing more showers and isolated thunderstorms to the CWA. However, severe weather may be limited if low clouds persist or if the low tracks a little farther east. A closed low will develop Wednesday night over eastern MT.
909 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southeast CONUS this evening, but a fair amount of convection developed across the region today. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low/mid 90s with afternoon heat indices ranging from 97-102F in most areas. Skies have cleared out across North Mississippi and temps have climbed into the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Clouds will clear out of the Memphis metro soon and temps will quickly climb into the lower 90s before sunset. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s.
Ridging surface and aloft will continue over the region tonight into Wednesday, limiting convective coverage over the area. Temperatures will stay above normal with highs Wednesday generally in the low to mid 90s over all interior locations, and upper 80s to around 90 along the coast. Lows tonight expected to be in the lower 70s for all interior locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, with middle 70s south of I-10, and even a few upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate beaches and barrier islands.
1051 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. The temperature guidance was close with lows mainly in the lower 70s. The upper ridge will persist, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
810 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. The temperature guidance was close with lows mainly in the lower 70s. The upper ridge will persist, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
825 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure across the southeast United States will continue the warming trend throughout the region through mid week.
123 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An East coast upper ridge will support an increase in temperatures throughout the majority of the week.
ow temperatures will once again cool into the lower /mid 70's inland and probably remain in the lower 80's closer to the coast due to a bit more cloud cover and onshore winds. 43 With the Texas area mid/upper level low remaining in place, still looking for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as elevated precipitable water values persist. Less rain coverage (but not dry) is expected as the day progresses on Thursday when mid/upper level ridging builds into our area from the east and northeast and precipitable water values fall. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected as the ridge builds. 42 High pressure over the eastern Gulf and low pressure over the southern plains will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through the end of the week.
Temperatures have fallen back into the low 70s/upper 60s with dew points a few degrees higher than this time yesterday. Honestly, I thought the high pressure aloft would hold firmer than it did yesterday. Heat Index values will top out in the low 100s once again.
That what happens when you tie both the record high temp for Nashville and Crossville for today, September 10th, and reach the highest temp recorded for the year so far, today, September 10th, in Nashville of 99 degrees. Last time Nashville reached 99 degrees was July 4th, 2018! All the above the result of broad moisture rich sly sfc flow and broad/but not too strong, upper level ridging aloft, which evolved into a dirty upper level ridging pattern as the day progressed. Upper level high high to remain in place across the mid state through the taf period. However, afternoon and early evening cap strengths will weaken as lower level moisture undercuts the mid and upper level ridging.
However, it still looks very humid with afternoon dewpoints values remaining in the lower 70s primarily. Several models forecast the upper ridge to strengthen more right over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday.
Looking like convection will try to fire again this afternoon on elevated terrain, but steering winds under this upper ridge are so weak, that convection may not drift into valley locations--will leave any mention of thunder out of TAFs. 09" of rain in the evening--with moisture on ground, could enhance fog formation, however, ground has been very dry, so it should soak into ground pretty well, thereby limiting this low level moisture.
At the same time, mid-level heights will rise as a broad upper-level trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. At that time, afternoon temps will rise into the upper 80s with mostly clear skies, while heat indices peak in the lower to mid 90s. The main window of concern continues to center on Thursday afternoon in the form for strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of a cold front. At that time, the previously mentioned upper-level trough will advance into the Northern Plains with the attendant cold front expected to push southeast into northwest Missouri by the late morning. Low to mid-level directional flow will be fairly uniform while the highest bulk shear will be pinned across areas north of I-35, closest to the base of the upper-level trough.
Cooler temperatures today will give way to a warming trend that beginning Wednesday.
221 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 The 00Z model consensus keeps the upper high/ridge in control of the region through Thursday.
359 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 A weak warm front will cross the region this morning as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States.
High pressure will approach the region on Wednesday providing a return to prevailing VFR conditions after 15z. Tonight Through Thursday An upper ridge continues over the southeast U. Arkansas is on the western edge over this high pressure. The ridge will slowly move west through Thursday and will take over much of the southern U. High pressure will build over the area for Wednesday and Thursday.
Otherwise, High pressure across the southeast US will keep southerly winds flowing into the region, with some clouds throughout the day. The heat continues into Thursday, but another frontal system slides through Thursday night, bringing rainfall and cooler temps to end the week. High pressure across the se US will continue to dominate the weather pattern around the Midwest, with southerly air flow and a slight chance for rainfall. This is due to a few weak vorticity waves sliding along the nw periphery of the High. Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the low 70s across the CWA. Upper level Low pressure will track across the northern US Thursday, reaching the upper Midwest late Thursday.
As has been mentioned in previous AFDs, model forecasts of H85 temperatures are slightly cooler today compared to the last few days, which means that today's high temperatures could also be a touch cooler compared to previous days. The resulting low pressure system then lifts through the northern CONUS into southeastern Canada, driving a cold front through MO/IL on Thu night and Fri. Cooler temperatures are then expected on Fri/Sat in the wake of the cold front.
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure is ridging across the area at the surface and aloft keeping easterly flow in place. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s again this afternoon with Heat Index values around 100. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 90s.
Storm evolution will ultimately be limited by the lack of shear and lack of cooler temps aloft. As the trough shifts east of the Rockies Thursday, a surface cold front will push south out of the Central Plains eventually stalling somewhere between Amarillo and Lubbock by Thursday night.
Some very isolated/early evening convection will again be possible on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge over the southeast U.
206 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Dry conditions are expected tonight as a mid level ridge remains in place across the region. A cold front will sag south into the southern and eastern Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday while the mid level ridge remains across the Ohio Valley.
We could see unorganized isolated storms again tomorrow as the upper low over the Pacific Northwest pushes eastward. The upper low is expected to push a front southward by Thursday as it passes across the Northern Plains, with the front stalling stalling at/near the FA. In addition to cooler temperatures, this front would renew the chance for widespread rainfall. Our northern zones are most favored for the highest rainfall chances as the front should at least make it to the central/southern Texas Panhandle. The weekend looks to be relatively dry as the upper ridge across the southeastern US amplifies.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms today across South Central Texas as the weakening upper trough still influences the region.
(Thursday through Wednesday) A weakened ridge across the area will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area through the end of the week.
The second impulse will come in as an upper low deepens over E Montana tomorrow evening, sending potentially heavy rain into the eastern zones. Storm system gradually moves east and a return to drier and warmer conditions can be expected through the weekend.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the southeast. At the surface, high pressure is over the southeast. A broad upper level ridge will be centered north of the region as the local area will be under the influence of easterly flow at the surface, and aloft. Highs will mainly be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 909 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southeast CONUS this evening, but a fair amount of convection developed across the region today. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low/mid 90s with afternoon heat indices ranging from 97-102F in most areas. Skies have cleared out across North Mississippi and temps have climbed into the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Clouds will clear out of the Memphis metro soon and temps will quickly climb into the lower 90s before sunset. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s.
A long wave trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest is still expected to progress eastward over the next few days and models are in good agreement on the timing/placement of this system. The center of the upper level low is expected to track well north - from Wyoming to South Dakota and Minnesota - but will induce lee side cyclogenesis near Nebraska and Kansas. By mid-day Thursday, the cold front is expected to enter NW OK with the boundary reaching central OK Thursday night.
The main trough will dig into the Great Basin tonight and push across the northern Rockies and northern CO late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The surface cold front should move through the forecast area during the day Wednesday. By Thursday morning the front and trough aloft should be over eastern CO and moving into the plains states.
342 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge centered just to our north will act to suppress convection and provide another generally fair and hot day. A 594DM upper level ridge will be centered over the TN Valley and Carolinas on Thursday with an easterly flow through the lowest 15kft.
A trough of low pressure will cross the Great Basin and bring cooler air and drag showers and thunderstorms out of eastern Nevada today and tonight. Upper trough well evident in the water vapor imagery and models may be a little late on the axis and sharpness of especially the western northerly trajectories of the trough. This would mean perhaps a tad cooler temps today and a little drier air on the western sides of the area and a little later exit to the showers and thunderstorms today. Short flat ridge takes its place Thursday with dry air over us. Slight warm up Thursday over today's cooler than normal highs, but still on the cooler than normal side. Tonight's lows, though, will be in the 20s and 30s mostly, with a few 40s in the warmer locales.
A warm front moved north yesterday, leaving very warm and humid conditions in its wake. The flow in the low and mid layers should remain relatively weak and unidirectional, so severe storm chances appear low. Also, the proximity of the upper ridge should limit storm coverage. Some of the convective allowing models really blow up convection this afternoon, but coverage appears overdone in the vicinity of subsidence from the upper ridge.
1102 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An East coast upper ridge will support an increase in temperatures throughout the majority of the week.
1142 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure across the southeast United States will continue the warming trend throughout the region through mid week.
Models continue to show widespread QPF across the entire CWA this afternoon with the heaviest over the higher terrain. This is where the best chance for storms will be so will carry the highest PoPs there and taper down to the east.
Wrap around the high southerlies was fetching a tongue of a little better moisture into the southwest ptns of the FA, but at the same time, mid clouds were muting the peaking air temperatures, somewhat offsetting pcpn chances as they remain below the level of free convection. Afterward, we see the dome of high pressure aloft really strengthen over the Tennessee river valley.
Southerly winds increase by mid morning and continue through the afternoon for a majority of the area ahead of an approaching cold front. a cold front moves through the area during the night with some breezy northwest winds for parts of the area Thursday. The models have some variability in how much moisture is available for thunderstorms Wednesday night with the GFS model the highest and most of the other models the lowest. Low temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low 60s from McCook to Leoti and points east.
Some question as to highs on Wednesday due to cooler temps aloft, but still some uncertainty on how this will affect high temps. With dewpts hovering in the low 70s, heat index values, especially in the St. Byrd By Wednesday night, upper level trof over the Northern Plains will begin to lift out northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front through the area beginning Thursday afternoon.
123 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge centered just to our north will act to suppress convection and provide another generally fair and hot day. The upper ridge will persist, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon - Widespread rain Thursday night - Drier and cooler for the weekend A stalled front across Lower Michigan may focus showers and thunderstorms today as juicy air feeds in from the south with somewhat drier airmass across the north.
A cold front is set to move into the area from the NW later in the day Thu and will have some upper level support initially. Temps will be cooler with highs ranging from 80 N to the upper 80s SE.
High pressure will provide mostly dry and very warm weather through Thursday.
Upper ridge still sitting on top of the area through this period. Current Records and Year of Record for September 11th: CHA 96 (2010) TYS 96 (1925) TRI 91 (1964) If any area stands to be a little cooler today, the Plateau has the best chances.
An upper level low over western WA and OR this afternoon will move southeast and be centered over our CWA Wed morning. Wed, as the upper low moves east of the area, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to our ID area.
339 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather through tonight with limited convective potential. As the ridge aloft continues to build, surface maximums will do so likewise with mid 90s predominant across the area.
423 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the local weather through Thu. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Fri into the weekend as a cold front drops southward.
440 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady northeast to east wind of around 15 mph, temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s along the island chain.
Upper level ridge and southwesterly flow will continue across the area today with summer-like conditions on tap with heat indices near 95. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient increases ahead of approaching cold front. Models in good agreement that thunderstorms will form by 1-3 PM on Thursday across northern portions of forecast area as a broken line of cells near cold front with moderately unstable environment with MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 with 0-6 effective shear of 30-40 knots. PWs will be near 2" near cold front so some of the storms will produce heavy rain but with progressive nature of front flash flooding potential should be minimized.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather through tonight with limited convective potential. As the ridge aloft continues to build, surface maximums will do so likewise with mid 90s predominant across the area.
Another warm and muggy day is expected with highs in the upper 80s into the low 90s. The majority of the forecast area is under a Marginal risk for severe weather, with a Slight risk in place northwest of a line from Cambridge to Kearney to Fullerton. Isolated severe storms are expected to develop across portions of western Nebraska in the afternoon and should merge into a line along the cold front and make its way toward our area this evening into the overnight hours. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible into the early morning hours mainly in areas toward the southeast as the cold front pushes out of the area. Behind the front winds will shift to out of the northwest brining cooler less humid conditions.
405 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 The overall upper level pattern over the southeastern US will generally be the same through the rest of this week with an upper level ridge centered near the Appalachian Mountains. For today, slightly weaker western side of upper high will allow for increased moisture to be capitalized on. On the temp side, still looking to be a few degrees above normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Operational global models then indicate that the ridge will begin build west across the LA/MS forecast area and well into Texas.
926 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure along the eastern seaboard and extending southwest across the southeastern states and Florida continues to support an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. It will be another hot day even along the coast as the elevated northeast to easterly wind flow should again keep the west coast sea breeze from forming with highs again climbing into the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. High pressure to the northeast of the area will maintain an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow across the Gulf waters the rest of today with northeast-east winds around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 71 97 72 / 10 10 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 95 71 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 69 96 70 / 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 65 92 66 / 10 10 20 10.
The 00Z model consensus keeps the upper high/ridge in control of the region through Thursday.
This AM at the surface, an elongated ridge extends from Nova Scotia southwestward toward the Mid Atlantic States. This ridge will weaken through tonight as a low and associated front moves east across the eastern half of Canada. In the upper levels, ridging stretches from the Northern Gulf of Mexico to the Mid Atlantic states. This is expected to weaken today and flatten out some across the Deep South with more upper disturbance activity transversing over the gulf around the ridge.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather through tonight with limited convective potential. As the ridge aloft continues to build, surface maximums will do so likewise with mid 90s predominant across the area.
Wednesday evening, there is a slight chance of thunderstorm activity in southwest Montana before the trough moves eastward out of our forecast area.