Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Another breezy day is expected across the area today as the pressure gradient remains tight between Ian to our southeast and high pressure to our north. Highs are expected to range from the lower 70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
A little more consistent southerly winds will keep overnight lows up in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, but farther south readings will drop to around 60. A few upper 50s again possible where some cold air drainage can occur in some of the low lying areas and river valleys. Highs tomorrow a degree or two warmer than today, mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
It will bring slightly cooler daytime highs to at least the eastern half of Oklahoma along with slightly drier air. Although afternoon humidity will mainly be near 25 percent this afternoon, better mixing across the higher terrain in western Oklahoma may result in somewhat stronger winds.
There is a fairly tight/small spread in ensemble guidance temperatures, but given the dry air mass, nighttime lows will be cooler than the general lower resolution gridded forecast values in small scale wind protected lower terrain and microclimates. Daytime highs may also be a bit warmer given the dry air and a lack of soil and plant moisture.
The center of high pressure that brought down the cooler and drier Canadian air mass today slides further east tomorrow toward the Northeastern US, allowing warmer air underneath the ridge across much of the Western US to begin working its way in from west to east. This will lead to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. As we head into Friday and the weekend, we remain locked in under a mid level ridge sandwiched between a cut-off low over the Intermountain West and the low pressure area associated with Hurricane Ian as it slowly moves northward into Georgia and the Carolinas. Between the two and over us will remain mid level ridging, so temperatures near seasonal normals and clear/dry conditions will likely continue.
courtesy of Canadian originated high pressure draping itself right overhead. Expect temperatures this afternoon to make a run at near normal levels in the lower 60s. A bit warmer start to the evening and the development of some light southerly return flow should keep temperatures from plummeting as much tonight. Localized areas again Friday night? Forecast period begins with the remnants of Hurricane Ian over the southeastern CONUS with high pressure centered over the New England area and ridging through the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide light winds, mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, and rain- free weather. This area of high pressure will dominate northern Michigan's weather through the forecast period.
Arkansas is being reinforced with a bit of cooler and drier air again, which will result in a bit lower highs tomorrow. An upper level ridge will persist to the west, and a northwesterly flow will persist thru the term.
1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) High pressure aloft, dry surface conditions, and surface winds less than 5kts at/around sunrise will favor another night of good radiational cooling conditions and below normal low temps. Aforementioned high pressure aloft will remain in place Thu PM and the low-level thermal ridge will be across the far ern CWFA.
Continued northerly winds with the northward propagation of Hurricane Ian will allow dry air to filter into the area, keeping dew points in the lower 40s for most locations and near 50 along the coast.
Went a couple of degrees higher than the NBM for the max temps for the lower RGV and a couple of degrees lower for the lows for the Ranchlands.
05Z observations are showing a slight upper level ridge in the central portions of the country with a large upper level trough entering the Pacific northwest. At the surface there is a trough of low pressure along the front range of the Rockies and this is leading to the south/southeast winds across the region during the overnight hours. Overall skies should stay mainly sunny and highs will be in the low to mid 80s in the east to around 90 in the west.
204 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Water vapor shows broad upper ridge over the central CONUS with upper low pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting into the western Dakotas. Weak short wave embedded in the northern periphery of the ridge is resulting in a bit of mid clouds across the region early this morning, with very gusty southerly winds over southwest/south-central SD due to a 50+kt low level jet. Today will be the warmest day of the week with thermal ridge overhead. Upper low begins to work into the Northern Rockies tonight and Friday. Additional showers/storms possible Friday afternoon as cold front words eastward across the area.
The coastal communities that are already gusty from the pressure gradient squeeze between the high to the north and approaching storm, will have winds increase in speed. Troughing south of Ian will keep the chance for showers and possible storms in the forecast through Friday night, but these chances will decrease from south to north through the night.
1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) Upper level high pressure system continues in control across the Rockies and Southern Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to dominate the local area through the short term period. Therefore, expect another cooler night with lows in the mid 50s across the Hill Country, lower 60s along I-35 corridor and mid 60s along the Rio Grande. Therefore, Thursday's overnight lows are forecast to be even cooler with some spots getting to the lower 50s across the Hill Country and between the mid 50s and mid 60s elsewhere.
312 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Discussion/Marine Forecast concerns are minimal today as a large area of high pressure is moving overhead. Given some sunshine, highs will be a bit warmer today.
Quiet conditions are expected throughout the entirety of the TAF period as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will be the dominant feature across the region throughout the short term.
Ian it making it's way into the Atlantic and an upper trough is moving inland over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile upper level ridging extended from the southern Rockies into the Canadian plains. Surface obs showed a high pressure system still over the Upper Midwest which continued to ridge into the central plains. Meanwhile a low pressure system moving into the central and northern Rockies this weekend looks to keep ridging at the surface and aloft.
329 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Although more sunshine will be around, it will still be a touch cool with highs in the low to mid 60s today. A shallow layer of somewhat colder 925 mb temps will hold on for much of the day, stopping the increasingly warmer 850 mb temps from fully mixing down. As a result, highs in the low to mid 60s will be common. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to hold this forecast period as a ridge of high pressure remains the dominant weather feature.
Following the passage of a weak CDFNT on Wed, a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air was filtering into AR.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge will remain over the region today as an upper trough over WA/OR this morning moves across ID today and into WY Friday. As the trough moves east the 500mb heights will fall across NM and TX Friday.
Plenty of sunshine will then boost temps to the lower 60s for an afternoon high and winds will remain light.
1017 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Today will be the final day of much warmer than normal temperatures as the cutoff low begins to influence the state the remainder of the week. Ahead of this low, moisture is beginning to push northward into the state, evidenced by the increased CU field. Showers will be ongoing Friday morning across much of the area as a mid/upper level low slowly pushes east into northwestern Wyoming. Friday highs will be noticeably cooler behind a cold front, especially across northern locations which could see highs more than 15 degrees cooler than on Thursday. The low will become cut off from the steering flow and will not move much through Friday night.
High pressure remained centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border during the afternoon. Not much weather wise will change through Friday as the high center drifts southeastward over Texas. The only exception to this overall trend will be over the Kaibab Plateau (the area north of the Grand Canyon) where weak upward lift from a passing short wave trough will result in increased storm chances.
As the high takes hold the northeasterly winds will continue to advect in cooler air from the north which will allow overnight lows across much of the area to mid to upper 30s with 40s expected in the Chicago metro. Winds are also expected to ease this evening as the high moves in with speeds becoming less than 5 mph. Otherwise, expect mostly to partly sunny skies for our Thursday with fall-like conditions in the low to mid-60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s inland with mid-40s in the metro. The broader pattern across the CONUS will remain somewhat blocked with a partially cut-off trough across the Rockies and the remnants of Hurricane Ian stalling over the southeast states. Kluber Quiet conditions are expected throughout the entirety of the TAF period as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes.
(Today) The upper level trough that has been present for the last few days still remains located in the Northeast. The Tennessee Valley is situated between these two large features and as a result, high pressure overhead will provide another nice Fall day. Compared to yesterday, the northerly flow is a bit weaker so temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer today with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.
Thursday's highs should be about 5 degrees warmer than today's as an elongated 850 mb thermal ridge over the High Plains slowly inches east with the help of the aforementioned southerly LLJ. Highs during this time period are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a few mid 70s possible along the Buffalo Ridge.
1123 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Semi-blocked pattern with a long wave ridge over the central CONUS will slowly allow eastern progression as a trough drops into the northern Rockies. Lee side trough will begin to shift east over the Northern Plains tonight, with an associated LLJ revving up over scentral SD. Upper trough will shift east and allow for increasing moisture and lift aloft, supporting increasing chances for showers and a few storms. However the better chances for rain will be Friday night into Sat (northwest half) as the main upper trough shifts east. As a trough approaches the region over the next few days, south to southwest winds will increase across portions of northeastern WY, southwestern SD, and south central SD.
Central Alabama will continue to be on the dry and cooler side of Tropical Cyclone Ian.
Lows Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 50s inland with upper 50s to around lower 60 at the coast.
1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An upper trough continues to dig into the mid-Atlantic region this afternoon as a weak upper ridge begins to slide into the southern plains. A back door cold front arrived last night knocking temperatures down to around normal for this time of year as this afternoon's temperatures reside from the mid 70s to low 80s. The upper trough over the northeastern CONUS is expected to exit that portion of the country by late Thursday or early Friday. Subsequently, general weak upper ridging is anticipated across the central portions of the Lower 48.
Easterly to northeasterly winds will filter drier and cooler air into most of the region, but winds will maintain a more southerly component across western reaches of North and Central Texas through the afternoon. The low humidity and dry fuels will keep the the fire weather threat elevated both today and tomorrow; however, wind speeds near 10-15 mph or less will continue to mitigate the potential for rapid fire spread.
The combination of Lake Erie moisture fetch and the mid-level trough will result in some low stratus well to our east, but some of this cloud cover may bleed over into the Bluegrass region this morning within the NE flow.
Otherwise, northern and central NV can expected dry and slightly cooler conditions through the weekend, with afternoon wind gusts of mainly 15 to 25 mph. An upper level low currently centered over Washington and Oregon will drift southeast, centering over the SE corner of Idaho by Friday afternoon. The resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler air into the Great Basin region through at least Friday, along with afternoon wind gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range.
For today, warmer temperatures than yesterday are forecasted with highs expected to reach the mid 80's. This will lead to Eastern Colorado being a bit cooler in the 80's compared to the rest of the area which is forecasted to warm to near 90. With the warmer temperatures and drier air being advected in on the warm side of the low, portions of northwest Kansas will see RH drop in the mid to upper teens. The evening hours may bring some showers and storms to far northwestern portions of the area, but the upper trough remaining more over the Northern Rockies will limit the forcing and moisture advection into the area.
749 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Aviation Forecast concerns are minimal today as a large area of high pressure is moving overhead. Given some sunshine, highs will be a bit warmer today.
634 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of an upper level high pressure system, and dry atmospheric conditions (PWAT values below normal), during the period, per deterministic NWP model output.
528 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today) The upper level trough that has been present for the last few days still remains located in the Northeast. The Tennessee Valley is situated between these two large features and as a result, high pressure overhead will provide another nice Fall day. Compared to yesterday, the northerly flow is a bit weaker so temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer today with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.
High temperatures will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s as cloud cover breaks up throughout the day.
A moderate warming trend is expected for the latter part of the week, as high pressure builds inland and surface flow turns more offshore.
(Today through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of an upper level high pressure system, and dry atmospheric conditions (PWAT values below normal), during the period, per deterministic NWP model output.
429 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 We are looking at one more warm day for a large part of south-east Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ broad and flat upper level ridging remaining intact just ahead of a vigorous short wave trough currently digging into the Intermountain West. However, the latest model trends have been considerably cooler w/ daytime highs for today as cloud cover should rapidly increase this afternoon as increasingly difluent, moist southwesterly flow aloft spreads over the region. Friday could be a more interesting convective day with significant linear forcing both at the surface and aloft, and upwards of 40 knots of deep layer shear oriented parallel to the cold front.
Behind the front, it'll be slightly cooler this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Easterly to northeasterly winds will filter drier and cooler air into most of the region, but winds will maintain a more southerly component across western reaches of North and Central Texas through the afternoon. The low humidity and dry fuels will keep the the fire weather threat elevated both today and tomorrow; however, wind speeds near 10-15 mph or less will continue to mitigate the potential for rapid fire spread.
Water vapor shows broad upper ridge over the central CONUS with upper low pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting into the western Dakotas. Weak short wave embedded in the northern periphery of the ridge is resulting in a bit of mid clouds across the region early this morning, with very gusty southerly winds over southwest/south-central SD due to a 50+kt low level jet. Today will be the warmest day of the week with thermal ridge overhead. Upper low begins to work into the Northern Rockies tonight and Friday. Additional showers/storms possible Friday afternoon as cold front words eastward across the area.
Anderson (Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022) Today and Tonight: High pressure over the Great Lakes Region early this morning will continue to slowly shift northeast and meander into the New England States late tonight. With high pressure overhead this morning, mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures are expected. Warmer water temperatures will keep the lakeshore areas warm enough to keep the frost at bay.
410 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Subtle upper level ridging across the central CONUS today will continue the dry weather. Upper level ridging will amplify across the Central and Southern Plains this weekend downstream of a closed low that will remain nearly stationary across the northern Rockies. Flow aloft will be south-southwest ahead of the low, and most of the convection that forms will slide through the Panhandle into western SD and have limited eastward push into our area.
Subtle upper level ridging across the central CONUS today will continue the dry weather. Upper level ridging will amplify across the Central and Southern Plains this weekend downstream of a closed low that will remain nearly stationary across the northern Rockies. Flow aloft will be south-southwest ahead of the low, and most of the convection that forms will slide through the Panhandle into western SD and have limited eastward push into our area.
434 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Temperatures will rebound several degrees across the region today as a slightly warmer airmass pushes in from the west and breezy southerly winds increase across the region.
Temperatures continue to remain above average, with highs hovering near 100 in the lower deserts through the weekend. Falling midlevel heights and cooler temperatures aloft are leading to a slight cooling trend over the next several days across the Phoenix area and lower deserts. These falling heights are due to a strong troughing feature that is digging south across the Pacific Northwest, which is shifting the ridge axis that has brought well above normal temperatures over the last several days further east across the Plains by the weekend. For today, HREF members suggest shower and thunderstorm activity to be more limited than yesterday to higher terrain features in Yuma, La Paz and Imperial Counties, which is in line with where ensemble guidance is depicting the highest available PWAT's up to 1.
636 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Although more sunshine will be around, it will still be a touch cool with highs in the low to mid 60s today. A shallow layer of somewhat colder 925 mb temps will hold on for much of the day, stopping the increasingly warmer 850 mb temps from fully mixing down. As a result, highs in the low to mid 60s will be common. Light easterly flow generally less than 10 knots expected today on the southern periphery of the Great Lakes anticyclone.
This may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previously thought. Significant coastal flooding is ongoing across vulnerable low-lying areas on the Bayside of the Upper Keys, and we expect this to continue for the next couple of days, with little if any relief during the low tides. However, areas of leftover street flooding in low- lying sections, mainly in the Lower Keys including Midtown and New Town Key West, will take some time to abate as the remaining water slowly drains away.
531 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 We are looking at one more warm day for a large part of south-east Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ broad and flat upper level ridging remaining intact just ahead of a vigorous short wave trough currently digging into the Intermountain West. However, the latest model trends have been considerably cooler w/ daytime highs for today as cloud cover should rapidly increase this afternoon as increasingly difluent, moist southwesterly flow aloft spreads over the region. Friday could be a more interesting convective day with significant linear forcing both at the surface and aloft, and upwards of 40 knots of deep layer shear oriented parallel to the cold front.
644 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Dry air associated with building high pressure will continue to erode the periphery of an area of stratus currently positioned over the middle of the forecast area. Plenty of sunshine will then boost temps to the lower 60s for an afternoon high and winds will remain light.
Temperatures will rebound several degrees across the region today as a slightly warmer airmass pushes in from the west and breezy southerly winds increase across the region.
Therefore, expect plenty of sun today with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s for most locations.
After a chilly start in the 30s to lower 40s, sunny conditions will help temperatures rebound to the lower to upper 60s by afternoon, warmest across the southwest counties. A blocking pattern aloft, with an upper ridge over the Central U. VFR and light winds will continue through tonight with high pressure in control.
Only a few high clouds to note across interior Northern California early this morning with temperatures running a degree or two warmer than at this time last night. A trough located over the PacNW tonight will slowly drift eastward, residing over the Northern/Central Rockies by Friday.
500 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Water vapor shows broad upper ridge over the central CONUS with upper low pushing into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting into the western Dakotas. Weak short wave embedded in the northern periphery of the ridge is resulting in a bit of mid clouds across the region early this morning, with very gusty southerly winds over southwest/south-central SD due to a 50+kt low level jet. Today will be the warmest day of the week with thermal ridge overhead. Upper low begins to work into the Northern Rockies tonight and Friday. Additional showers/storms possible Friday afternoon as cold front words eastward across the area.
(Today through Friday) Dry and cooler fall-like temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow.
612 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure and dry mid to upper levels will remain over the forecast area today.
641 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday) Dry conditions continue, but the cooler high temperatures are preventing min RH values from getting as low as earlier this week. Enhanced low level mixing with strong winds and dry air aloft may bring min RH values to around 20 to 25 percent for some areas, especially west and south where temps may get a few degrees warmer.
434 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over and near the higher terrain. Dry air with weak instability in place will limit precip development today, though westerly flow ushering in some weak mid level impulses will support development over the higher terrain. While an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out anywhere across the higher terrain, slightly higher focus will be across the Continental Divide. Lee troughing in place today will help to support increasing winds/gusts over the southeast plains.
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the PACNW east across the NRN Rockies during the next 24 hours. As that occurs, model guidance shows an upper ridge building over the West Coast. Otherwise, ensemble forecast guidance indicates some semblance of a NERN PAC/West Coast ridge will prevail going into the late stages of the seven day forecast period, which should preclude the development of precipitation across NWRN CA. Building high pressure will shunt winds offshore early this weekend, allowing seas to gradually calm.