Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest winds on the return flow side of the high will bring warmer air and more moisture into the forecast area. Warmer and drier air moving in will bring a slight chance for some sleet or freezing precipitation just before the system departs. Forecast soundings for Friday showed a strong low-level inversion that will prevent deep mixing and keep temperatures from getting warmer than the lower to middle 30s across most of the area.
1222 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 The pressure ridge moving into the forecast area behind a cold front will be near the area late tonight and Friday morning. The ridge will move off the coast Friday afternoon.
338 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 At 3 PM, high pressure was centered over the mid Mississippi valley. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today as warm air advection ensues.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Northerly flow with high pressure continuing to build across the region this afternoon. Thus, the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere are quite stable this morning.
/issued 344 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Highs this afternoon under sunny skies will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than seasonal norms with mid to upper 60s over the northern half of the CWA and lower 70s across the southern half. After near normal morning lows this morning in the 30s, warmer lows in the 40s can be expected tomorrow morning.
Upper ridge axis over the Rockies today will shift east to the central plains on Friday. Surface winds will be west to southwest on Friday behind the trough, with resulting downslope effects enhancing warming. amplified H5/H7 ridge finally breaking down going more zonal heading into the weekend as an upper trough works off the Pacific coast and into the Rockies. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both do have the southern half of the trough becoming a cutoff low.
Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots 17-18z Friday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the deepening lee side trough. /ISSUED 350 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ After a cold start to the morning with temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s, a warming trend will begin today as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
00z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery indicated a large trough over much of the western CONUS with upper ridging remaining over the Midwest and Great Lakes. fairly impressive moisture plume observed from OK/TX northward to SD with 850 mb dewpoints exceeding 12C, sfc dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, and PWAT values exceeding 1 inch.
306 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Dry southwest flow aloft will prevail today as a weak ridge will be over the area. Another low pressure system will continue depending along the west coast but will make little progress to the east. On Tuesday the trough will begin filling and moving inland into NV and ID but the flow over the forecast area will stay southwesterly and relatively dry.
624 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build into the area today and then move off the southeast coast by late Tuesday.
North Dakota will be under the influence of an upper level low parked across southern Alberta.
442 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper level flow remains southwest with a trough in the western United states lobbing pieces of energy into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front marches east across the CWA with thunderstorm outflow helping to propagate the front east.
251 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Current surface map places slow moving cold front across the eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska. Upper low located across southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will keep southwest flow aloft across the forecast area.
The chance of showers will continue to decrease this evening but the airmass will, in general remain moist and a bit unsettled under the influence of low pressure aloft. A slow moving upper level low will reside over southern Alberta over the next few days. As a result, scattered showers will pin-wheel around this upper level low. /ISSUED / A strong upper level low is spinning just north of our forecast area, and slowly drifting northeast into Saskatchewan. Deep moisture wrapping around the west side of the upper low is producing record rainfall, per NWS MSO, at some locations west of the Continental Divide.
An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek.
Mild weather will continue this week with temperatures expected to be cooler than what we would normally see this time of year.
359 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough. Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in aloft.
We will primarily be under the influence of an upper low today situated over southern Saskatchewan. There is a spoke of vorticity progged to rotate around the upper low into north central Montana this afternoon. Upper low over Canada weakens and southern branch of overall braodscale trough across the west is primary influence.
416 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located.
Highs this afternoon will range from 75 to 80 and into the lower 80s on Tuesday. Dry subsident airmass locked in place by ridging surface/aloft today to provide full/near full insolation potential. Not near as cold Monday night as low level ridge centroid settles ssewd into Carolinas to finally allow uptick in thermal advection of sig warmer airmass upstream. Storms Wed aftn/eve should refire along outflows/differential heating boundaries and given semi permanence of broad upstream trof expect this trend to persist with several convective episodes possible into the weekend. Subsidence associated with a high pressure area will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period.
clouds will return tonight and Tuesday along with an increasing chance of showers as low pressure off the DELMARVA moves north into the Gulf of Maine.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging will be steadily strengthening over south Texas and northern Mexico through Mon and Tues. The higher terrain of northeast Mexico may provide enough orographic lift during the max heating on both Mon and Tues to fire some conv to our southwest. The NAM/GFS and ECWMF guidance all place pops through the short range period in the single digits and will stick with these values considering the strength of the 500 mb ridge axis. The 1000-500 mb thickness values will be gradually increasing at the 500 mb ridge axis strengthens.
Cool and breezy conditions are expected through the bulk of the work week as southwest flow aloft streams over the area due to a large scale low pressure system off the California Coast dominates the weather pattern in the near term.
Today began with a ridge over the Plains. This trof will cont NE tonight. The mean Wrn trof will retrograde a bit. Dwpts are the highest they've been so far this warm season. in the low-mid 60s. This trof will be ejecting across the Cntrl/Srn Plains during peak heating. Aloft: SW flow will remain over the Plains as the longwave trof remains locked over the Wrn USA. the most identifiable trof is fcst to eject out of the Wrn trof on Fri. This week should be warmer than last week.
Warmer and drier conditions will return for the middle to end of the week.
403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area this morning and will slowly move to the east. As the upper ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.
A mid level cut-off low located along the mid Atlantic coast has pushed a weak frontal boundary into south Florida where it is forecast to weaken. Generally dry pattern expected through midweek as a large upper low gradually pulls away from the eastern seaboard and ridging asserts itself over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will allow onshore flow to develop and slowly increase.
The upper level low impacting the region of the weekend has moved into southern Alberta this evening but overall we remain with a deep upper level trough over the western U.
221 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast coast Tuesday.
The cold front will be moving slowly through the forecast area Monday night. Dry elsewhere with some surface ridging building into the area. Tuesday night has the showers and storms quickly ending as ridging moves down the North Shore. The surface ridging prevails late Tuesday night and have removed pops.
410 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 8Z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front situated along a line from KONL to KEAR to KHYS. Aloft broad southwesterly flow was noted ahead of an upper level western conus trough. This trough, as it shifts east, will be a major weather maker for our area by the end of the work week and looks to dominate our weather into the weekend.
348 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough will be digging south over the Pacific coastal states today as an upper ridge axis now extending from the ArkLaTex to the Great Lakes builds a little further eastward.
A weakening upper trough will result in a mix of scattered light showers and sun breaks today for western Washington.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool, but gradually warmer later in the week. A very broad upper level trough continues to stretch from Manitoba southwestward to off the West Coast. Embedded in this trough are a few areas of low pressure and short wave troughs. Temperatures associated with the upper level trough are unseasonably cold as well. By Tuesday an upper low rotates around the base of the upper trough leading to another round of scattered precip. By mid-week high pressure begins to build off the West Coast and eventually over the Bay Area.
557 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper level flow remains southwest with a trough in the western United states lobbing pieces of energy into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front marches east across the CWA with thunderstorm outflow helping to propagate the front east.
1249 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Strong southeasterly flow in the low levels has MVFR CIGs developing at all terminals. Low chances for thunderstorms will continue tonight through Monday as a weak ridging feature aloft over S TX keeps SW flow aloft and a teleconnection with the Pacific tropics. The high CAPE/low shear environment still capable of generating an isolated severe storm or two.
337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the wrn U. and troughing in the east with a ridge across the central U. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes tonight and remains through Monday. Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected tonight through Monday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
/issued 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/ WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta. As a result, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the backside of the ridge. East of this feature, instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S. Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily east of this feature, mainly SE zones.
High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend. /Rest of Tonight/ Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
319 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly flow aloft over the central United States.
High pressure will begin to build in, resulting in a pleasant sunny day with low humidity.
226 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue over the central California interior for much of this week as an upper level trough resides along the west coast.
With a deep upper level trough over the west coast and a closed low over the region a cold air mass is sitting over the forecast area. The upper trough remains over the west coast Tuesday with the closed low migrating to south of the bay area.
142 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms. Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and early evening showers and tstorms. Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low. Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm tropical air mass overhead. with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s by the afternoon.
as amplified upper level ridge axis moves overhead. The significant change is the low level winds will shift to the south/southwest this afternoon. Strengthening low level southwest flow on Tuesday ahead of cold front will allow temperatures to reach and likely exceed 80 degrees as 850 mb temps reach between 13 to 15 c. An increase in clouds/convective debris during the afternoon could cause a disruption to the forecasted highs in the low to mid 80s however. but there looks to be little to no upper level support as flatter upper level ridge holds.
346 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Shallow cold front was dropping southward through the plains this morning, bringing a shift to north winds and slightly higher dewpoints to most areas along and east of I-25. By early Tue morning, cold front will slosh back southward through the plains, with perhaps enough low level moisture for some stratus along the KS border toward sunrise.
637 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. High pressure will build slowly southeast into our area through this afternoon.
605 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the north today and tonight. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday.
607 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located.
A broad upper level trough will continue to impact the region through Tuesday night, bringing increasing shower activity each afternoon and decreasing activity each night as the atmosphere stabilizes.
156 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located.
Some weak low level cold advection to overspread especially eastern portions of the forecast area in wake of low level trough passage. This weak cold advection combined with ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight should promote lows similar to that of last night, or slightly cooler in some spots into the mid-upper 40s. Next 36 to 48 hours will continue to be rather uneventful as high pressure moves across the region with any convective concerns remaining generally west of the mississippi river through the period.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA A vigorous low pressure system over southern Canada will continue to bring significant rain and snow to northwest Montana through today. However, cloud cover and scattered rain showers persist, especially during the afternoons with the assistance of a disturbance moving through the overall trough of low pressure.
621 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast coast Tuesday.
Long-wave trough will remain in place over the West through the period maintaining cool and unsettled weather for the region.
1111 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper low spins over southern Alberta, with a 100+ kt jet pushing into the Northern Plains. Cold front has stalled over western SD and isn't progged to leave the CWA until around 06Z.
/Issued / Forecast area is on the back side of an upper low currently drifting over the mid and upper Atlantic coastal areas. This is resulting in a dry/subsiding air mass advecting down from the north and northwest which will result in clear skies and cooler temperatures overnight. Current forecast looks on track with lows generally in the lower to mid 50s for most areas. /39 500mb trough crossing the forecast area this afternoon. Closed low circulating vicinity of the mid Atlantic coast through the period. Overnight lows a bit cooler than normal most areas tonight but a gradual moderation through the rest of the forecast period. Relative humidity values Monday will drop into the low 30s and upper 20s across much of the area.
623 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build into the region and off the southeast coast by late Tuesday.
403 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. High pressure will build slowly southeast into our area through this afternoon.
503 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast coast Tuesday.
447 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure and the associated dry air mass has dominated the region the last few days resulting in some nice diurnal temperature ranges and warm daytime highs. A positively tilted long wave trof will remain centered through the western U. while the upper ridge axis currently extending through the MS Valley will shift east as the mid Atlantic upper low/trof moves to the northeast off the east coast.
Benign weather is expected tonight in the wake of a cold front with mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s along the beaches. The work week will begin with a closed low aloft over coastal North Carolina, and this closed low will be slow to eject northeast along the Atlantic coast.
112 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build into the region and off the southeast coast by late Tuesday.
307 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Dry southwest flow aloft will prevail today as a weak ridge will be over the area. Another low pressure system will continue depending along the west coast but will make little progress to the east. On Tuesday the trough will begin filling and moving inland into NV and ID but the flow over the forecast area will stay southwesterly and relatively dry.
354 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure and the associated dry air mass has dominated the region the last few days resulting in some nice diurnal temperature ranges and warm daytime highs. A positively tilted long wave trof will remain centered through the western U. while the upper ridge axis currently extending through the MS Valley will shift east as the mid Atlantic upper low/trof moves to the northeast off the east coast.
124 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Weak low pressure off the Carolina coast will continue moving northeast.
141 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will gradually build into the region through Tuesday.
502 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the north today and tonight. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday.
239 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 A high pressure ridge in the mid levels today will continue to bring clear skies. With high pressure at the surface now centered over the eastern Ohio River Valley region, southeasterly to southerly winds will develop to around 6-12 mph by afternoon, along with occasional gusts 10-20 mph. With moisture still relatively dry today (dewpoints near 50), highs reaching the low to mid 80s will continue to feel relatively mild. The warmer mid 80s will be generally west of I-57 where stronger southerly flow advects warmer air from the south into the area. Upper level pattern has begun its transition to a flow more out of the southwest, as the ridge overhead breaks down through the day.
323 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Surface analysis depicts a cold front boundary now pushing southeastward across Central Florida and slowly approaching the area. Model solutions show reasonable consensus in keeping an upper level low and an associated mid/upper trough lingering across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states today and through Tuesday. A series of short wave impulses will move around the base of the main trough, reaching Florida at times.
A mid to upper level ridge will steadily build into the region during the period. Moisture in the lower levels will be trapped beneath the strengthening inverion for predominantly mostly cloudy skies. Low level flow will also be increasing as gradient tightens in response to deepening low pressure over the southern high plains.
Main driver of the sensible weather across northeast Montana today will be the stalled low pressure center now over southern Saskatchewan.
350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough extends SW back to the Pacific coast.
An elongated upper level trough stretching from southern Canada to the California coast will maintain a mild southwest flow over Utah early in the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions will return midweek as the trough shifts east through the Great Basin.
316 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region today. but ample sunshine should create warmer temperatures today over good portion of the region. resulting in good radiational cooling and some cooler lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across most of the Tennessee Valley. Above normal highs and lows through the period with high pressure inplace. Tuesday, upper trough finally off to our east with ridging building into the area. No pops in place with highs in the low to upper 80s, which is a few degrees above normal.
This upper trough will move off to the Northeast tonight, with high pressure at the surface and aloft building through Tuesday.