Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
254 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Remarkably pleasant weather has won another day in our CWA today, as the developing low pressure to the south and warm frontal set up lacked sufficient moisture to keep our skies opaque cloudy. The far north remains in the 40s, while the south has topped out in the lower 60s. Mid level frontogenesis will remain just north of the CWA this evening, while the main lower level warm front development will occur just to the southeast of the CWA in Illinois. A cold front will sweep through the area towards dawn. Sunday will be cooler, but not cold. With temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, wind chills will be in the 30s through the day.
The weather pattern is fairly quiet over the region today as high pressure both at the surface and aloft build into the Pacific Northwest. Then in the Lower Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys inversions will once again develop under mostly clear skies and light winds beginning tonight. There will also be a possibility of fog/freezing fog development over the Basin areas late at night. As a result expect each morning through the short term to be a couple degrees cooler. while the mountains will see steady temperatures or perhaps a slight warming trend as the high pressure builds over the region.
154 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 A dry pressure ridge will extend from off the Southeast Coast westward along the Gulf Coast through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Sunday and pass through the forecast area Sunday evening.
High pressure is settled in at the surface over the Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas, then stacked through the mid layers back to the west over the Gulf of Mexico.
The lower ceilings will be eroding with near record heating, but mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps in the lower 80s. However, temps reaching near or just above 80 degrees are expected, as strong WAA in sw sfc flow combined with upper ridging passing ovhd later today overcomes the influence of the clouds. Cold front will make its way through the region Sunday despite ridging aloft, which will usher a much cooler airmass into the region. A few shwrs/isold tstms may affect the region along the front, but coverage/intensity expected to remain on the low end of the scale.
336 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will bring rain and warm temperatures overnight into Sunday.
Dewpoints are warmer than model guidance has been suggesting, thereby placing a lower confidence on fog formation overnight.
1212 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will bring rain and warm temperatures for the weekend.
Latest satellite image depicts the low clouds south of POF to Madisonville line.
257 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will track across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, before reforming off the New England coast Sunday Night.
Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly to add better cloud cover for all areas for the rest of today and lower temps to the low to mid 70s for most inland areas and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. Aloft an flat upper level ridge is projected to produce enough subsidence to keep moisture pooled in the lower levels.
419 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will track across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, before reforming off the New England coast Sunday Night.
MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to largely dominant the period as a cold front approaches.
High pressure will return for much of the upcoming week. Split upper level trough remains over the west this morning with the northern branch feature moving through Montana and an upper low moving south along the south California coast.
Cold front currently from extreme NW OK through southern KS will push through the area tonight with winds turning northerly and becoming gusty. Temps nearer normal on Sunday which will be noticeably cooler than recent days.
A cold front will advance SE into extreme NE TX/SW AR by mid- morning Sunday which will result in IFR/LIFR cigs develop near and just ahead of the front, with the potential for areas of FG/-DZ/-RA to develop near the frontal zone as it nears the TXK/ELD terminals between 15-18Z. The lower ceilings will be eroding with near record heating, but mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps in the lower 80s.
236 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Fairly tight temperature gradient present across the region this afternoon as a warm front settles across the I-70 corridor. Expect areas in the E/NE winds north of I-70 to remain in the 60s this afternoon, but areas south of that warm front have climbed well into the 70s. The best and likely only chance for precpitiaion will come early to middle part of the upcoming week as a closed mid level trough lumbers through the Southern Plains.
251 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 A northern stream trough was tracking across eastern Montana this afternoon on WV imagery with a 140 kt jet streak along its downstream flank. Meanwhile, a 1005 mb low pressure cell pushed through the southern CWA today and was centered just southeast of Kansas City by the mid afternoon hours. As the low pulls east tonight, winds will back to the NNW and increase as the pressure gradient tightens over NE Kansas. Increasing CAA through the boundary layer will steepen lapse rates in the lowest 50-75 mb of the column with winds of 25-30 kts at the top of the BL. Highs on Sunday will fall into the upper 40s to around 50 with winds also on the decline through the day as high pressure approaches from the NW.
The ridge axis will be a little farther south on Sunday, which will promote southwest flow over more of the area.
Therefore will let the high wind warning ride through expiration, with no current plans for extension. Clearing skies and light winds tonight may provide opportunities for fog formation in the presence of added boundary layer moisture due to precedent above freezing day time temperatures. Upper ridging across the western U.
A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain overnight. Placement of low level thermal ridge and general swrly boundary layer flow into this aftn downstream of sfc cyclone organizing ewd out of Kansas points to considerable bust potential in light of prior gridded temps and current mos guidance. Nrn lakes sw will continue to amplify sharply into the Gulf of Maine Sun night as sfc cyclone explodes east of Boston. Thereafter short amplitude ridging builds ahead of secondary sw digging quickly sewd through the ern lakes Wed. Implied lake effect pops could likely be dropped given scant moisture availability and limited lake aggregate thermal troughing. Moisture will spread north ahead of this low but deepest moisture and lift will be focused closer to and just south of KFWA. Gusty winds increasing from northwest Sunday behind cold front.
207 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Aloft - A low was over central CA while a short wave trough extended from central Canada to the northern high plains. A ridge from northeast Mexico to north of the Great Lakes dominated most of the eastern states. Low pressure was over the central plains. High pressure centered in the Atlantic near 30 North/70 West ridged across the southeast U. The CA upper low slides along the coast to Baja California while the short wave trough moves to the Great Lakes. In response the ridge shifts out over the Gulf of Mexico and initially flattens but builds back toward the Rockies late in the period. dragging a cold front that settles into the Deep South and western Gulf coast. Early in the week models continue to move a mid/upper level trough across the eastern U.
1217 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will remain centered off the coast through Sunday. A cold front with limited moisture will move across the area Sunday night.
1248 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 On the western edge of low level high pressure, forecast remains on track for a dry day with sunny skies and a light breeze from the south. Cigs and then vsbys will drop to MVFR and then IFR as winds lower overnight and moisture increases at the lowest levels. This will bring increasing gulf moisture and warmer temperatures to the region.
142 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Surface map at 18Z shows a 1006 mb low situated just NW of JLN with a warm front extending eastward across the Ohio Valley and a cold front extending SW from the low across the central Plains. Scattered showers will continue overnight and tomorrow morning as a the cold front pushes through the mid state, with showers ending from west-to-east Sunday afternoon. The upper flow will remain quasi-zonal with this system, so all the dynamics will be restricted to the low levels of the atmosphere.
A period of active weather will bring cooler temperatures, rain, and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona this weekend.
150 PM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 The combination of cold air advection behind another cold front and 3 hour pressure rises of 7-9mb through midnight will produce a period of breezy to windy north winds.
246 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Mild high pressure will extend across the Southeast states through the weekend. A mostly dry cold front will cross the area Sunday night, then cooler high pressure will follow for the beginning of the work week. Meanwhile low pressure is tracking from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley through tonight. On Sunday, strong warm air advection continues ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will cross the forecast area Sunday evening, accompanied by just some enhanced cloudiness and no precip as preceding mid level flow remains dry out of the WNW. The column dries out quickly behind the front and accompanying northern stream trough which deepens over the Northeast/New England late Sun night.
250 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Despite widespread cloud cover, warm temperatures currently being observed in the region at this hour thanks to a warm front passage. Dewpoints have steadily climbed into the lower 50Fs in northern parts of the CWA, with southern parts of the CWA are already near 60F. Cold front will pass through the region tomorrow morning, and drier/cooler air will work its way into the area behind the front. Winds should die down overnight and temperatures will fall below the freezing mark in many locations.
Of course this abnormally hot February weather all comes to an abrupt halt overnight as the much advertised cold front rockets from north to south across West Texas late this evening and through the overnight hours. Otherwise, clouds will be on the increase Sunday as strong upper low approaches from the SW US.
154 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Surface cold front at early afternoon was across the mid portion of the forecast area with record setter at Chanute in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Despite being much cooler the next few days, temperatures will still average a little above seasonal climo for mid-February.
108 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Aviation Expect showers to develop near and south in Interstate 96 by this evening in response to a cold front moving southward through the area from northern Michigan. The overrunning north of that systems warm front will bring rain to areas south of Interstate 96 overnight into Sunday morning.
1056 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 Cold front continues to drop south this morning, currently sitting just north of the Bookcliffs north of Interstate 70. Both models slowly slide a cold front, which is currently located over northwestern Colorado, south across the area today. This cold front will support a possibility of rain in the valleys and mountain snows through Sunday. The timing of the cold front and associated cold air will be critical for snow accumulations today. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over Central California with plenty of moisture streaming into our forecast area. A broad ridge of high pressure is also evident over the Central CONUS.
Snow showers have ended for most areas besides the high terrain. Additionally, cooler temperatures overnight with lower dew points today have alleviated concerns of additional snow melt, so flood advisories have been expired. Breaks in the clouds this afternoon will lead to periods of sunshine for valleys, but high temperatures remain near freezing as cooler air slowly migrates into the region from the northwest.
154 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Surface cold front at early afternoon was a bit further south than expected yesterday, though temperatures still unseasonably warm with record setter at Chanute in the upper 70s. Despite being much cooler the next few days, temperatures will still average a little above seasonal climo for mid-February.
The winds may not decouple until after midnight and so we are a hedging a little warmer with super guidance. Fog is possible is a spot or two and was not brought forth in the forecast as perhaps low clouds will more likely rebound with the warmer ground now in place. The pattern will change with highs tomorrow a bit cooler with some showers accompanying a late day cold frontal passage.
Two weak low pressure centers will slide east through the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with southern Wisconsin in between them. So far today, this precipitation has been evaporating aloft due to dry air in the low levels. There remains some model disagreement on how quickly the low levels will saturate this evening and tonight, which will affect the onset and amounts for any precipitation that we do see. As the upper trough passes through, we'll be able to at least partially tap into 850 mb winds around 45 knots as daytime mixing ensues. For now, we look a bit marginal for a Wind Advisory, with winds peaking around 35 to 38 knots in the lowest 1. Otherwise, expect decreasing cloud cover through the afternoon with temperatures a few degrees cooler than on Saturday.
Winds will shift to the north with gusts 25 to 30 kts behind a cold front late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Record breaking heat continues to be an absolute certainty today ahead of the approaching cold front. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will persist today ahead of strong cold front, which is expected to push south to near a MLC/FSM line by the end of the TAF period (12Z Sunday). A cold front will move through the region Tonight and into Sunday putting an end to the record breaking heat.
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure move to the south has not resulted in saturation as much as any model forecasted, and filtered sunshine is the result. Thus, our temperatures are much warmer than 00Z guidance, and appear to be set for highs between 50 and 60 from north to south. With clouds in the area, most temperatures across the region were still above freezing. This wave will help to move the low across KS east towards us today. This low pressure and midlevel wave will control the short term forecast.
1259 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will remain centered off the coast through Sunday. A cold front with limited moisture will move across the area Sunday night.
An upper level ridge will build into the region today. The stable air mass is largely responsible for the low clouds and fog in valleys of Douglas, Josephine, and Jackson Counties this morning.
Then chances of rain on Sunday as a cold front sags south through AR. The upper high pressure ridge has built into the Plains helping warm temperatures.
237 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 After an unbelievably warm day across the area today, a cold front will push south through the area tonight, bringing in more seasonal weather.
Big changes on the way, as a strong cold front moves quickly south across the area Sunday morning. Otherwise, expect much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 50s and 60s.
652 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Early morning surface analysis with IR satellite imagery identified a ridge of high pressure along the eastern Dakotas up through Manitoba, which matched up with the clear skies and light winds. This high pressure system will move very little over the next 36 hours, which means that the sensible weather of sunny skies and light northwest winds will continue.
Meanwhile a weak cold front is located near the Ohio River, moving S.
and Sunday Canadian high pressure will bring quiet weather to the region over the weekend, but there will be a few minor forecast concerns, including small pcpn chances this afternoon and evening, and fog potential overnight. A weak secondary cold front is forecast to sag into northern WI this afternoon, and may interact with the lake breeze convergence zone in the central U.
1213 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will be east of the area this morning. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend.
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a longwave trough entering the Pacific NW, with very dry southwest flow wrapping around the base of the trough and upstream which is pushing into the Great Basin.
1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Upper low to remain over northern FL for the next couple of days and combined with the very warm and moist environment in place will continue to allow for abundant rainfall especially over the Nature Coast. South to southwest flow across the waters will continue through mid-week with the high pressure ridge axis across south Florida.
949 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Forecast area today is in between an upper level ridge centered over west Texas and an upper level trough building down from the southeastern US into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. /issued 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Low to mid level ridging is expected to remain centered near the Red River/ARKLATEX for the next several days, while the ridge aloft continues to gradually erode.
1209 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Scattered showers will be limited to areas south of I-70 for the next few hours as a cold front moves south. The front itself is just passing through the WV/MD ridges. While dewpoints in Latrobe and Morgantown remain in the lower 70s, a dewpoint of 59 at Franklin represents the drier air moving into the region.
605 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The mid/upper ridge remains firmly in place across the Southern Plains while the Forecast Area remains on the southern fringe of the prevailing westerlies. This warm frontal segment may provide a focus for deep moist convection across south central KS on Sunday afternoon and evening while other storms may develop along the I-70 corridor. Temperatures will begin to rise, returning to more seasonable values in the low to mid 90s over southern KS while highs remain well below normal across central KS.
635 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 /12Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates. /issued 423 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions will persist across West Central Texas again today, with high pressure dominating.
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Today should be a less humid day under light nthrly flow with a slow clearing trend as the cold front that came thru yesterday continues to slowly drift S.
942 AM PDT Sat Aug 6 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm chances push eastward as we head into the evening hours as 850 mb trough sets up over south central Montana.
1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 /18Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates. /issued 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates. /issued 423 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions will persist across West Central Texas again today, with high pressure dominating.
951 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes this morning. Northern MI finds itself influenced by stacked low pressure in far northern Quebec, and high pressure extending from central Canada to the upper MS valley. The high will exert a stronger influence as we move forward, veering winds a bit more northerly in response by tonight. Our airmass will otherwise tend to dry out steadily, as high pressure builds into the upper MS valley.
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will be east of the area this morning. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend.
/issued 449 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Convection currently ongoing across Northern Oklahoma and Arkansas are moving southeastward towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley, but this activity should stay well north of the CWA. Changes in the persistent upper level ridge will result in a more northerly or perhaps northeasterly flow aloft, which could bring some of these showers and thunderstorms into Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana early Sunday Morning. In addition, model guidance suggests a cold front will back door into the area during the day Sunday.
/issued 409 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ The heat advisory has been extended to include the lower parts of the parishes near the coast in Southeast Louisiana and now covers the entire warning area. As we move into the new work week things get a little more uncertain as a trough of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance through the five day period. Troughiness remains along the coast and should continue for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along this boundary and move east along the trough interface.
622 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A broad area of high pressure will bring quiet weather conditions through the weekend.
949 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Scattered showers will be limited to areas south of I-70 for the next few hours as a cold front moves south. Although many models do show some redevelopment along the upper trough into the early afternoon hours, did not feel confident enough in this scenario to keep any pops in the forecast for this. Building high pressure should bring a clearing trend with lowering humidity levels after frontal passage.
At upper levels, broad trough will remain over SoCal. As for temperatures, boundary layer looks to be a bit warmer from day-to-day.
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will be east of the area this morning. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend.
However, with the approach of a weak cold front from the north this afternoon, this is expected to change. A cold front will move across the Mid-State today and increase the chance for thunderstorms.
1013 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon bringing a few brief showers to the Poconos and western Catskills.
The upper low center is currently spinning over British Columbia's Vancouver Island. Sunday night, the low center begins to turn toward the east and ejects a more-organized disturbance which holds together better as it moves over northeast Montana. 5 inches and low surface pressure trough among others show support for this.
A closed upper level low was located over Vancouver Island this morning.
Even though best support does shift east through the day, plenty of precipitation is still expected for the higher terrain and some valleys. By Sunday, the jet stream will be just to our north and will provide just enough support for some convection though amounts look to be on the low side at the moment. Although drier air will continue to work in from the west as the trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast moves inland, plenty of moisture will remain to generate more showers and thunderstorms with enough surface heating to act on this moisture and instability.
VFR this period as high pressure continues to dominate. Low level thermal trough will result in more CU development similar to yesterday. The high will dominate again on Sunday with a continuation of VFR conditions and light winds. Upper ridging will remain along the high Great Plains with an upper trough over Hudson Bay. This yields nwly flow aloft and slow moving high pressure from the nrn Great Plains to MN for today and tonight.
856 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front slides through the region today. High pressure Sunday.