Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
911 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Water vapor shows digging trof as it moves onshore the west coast, with broad sw flow across much of the western CONUS extending into the Northern Plains. Radar echoes extend eastward into southeastern MT and north central WY, but any precip reaching the ground is relatively light (outside of the higher elevations). Upper trof will continue to dig overnight as it progresses eastward, with upper low beginning to cut off over the Desert Southwest. Light snow will begin to spread into our western zones with northern stream trof working through the Northern Rockies. Splitting trof continues to work slowly eastward on Saturday with broad lift associated with right entrance region of jet and lower/mid level frontogenesis spreading across our area.
155 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will drift across the southeastern United States through the weekend. Confidence is low though, mainly due to the high overhead and the dry airmass aloft, so have continued to leave it out of the weather grids for now. Thus, should see overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer. Some members of the NAM hinting at possible low cloud/fog development above the snowpack as warmer air just above the surface overrides the colder air at the surface. The relatively dry air mass will continue to promote wide diurnal temperature swings from sub freezing early morning lows to mild afternoon temperatures. The snow pack of this depth will continue to have an influence on the air temps, so afternoon temps in the lower 50s will be more likely.
455 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A cold-core anticyclone is centered along the Northeast Gulf Coast, creating northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys and coastal waters. MIMIC imagery indicates generally dry conditions, but a gradual moistening in the low levels of the atmosphere from the south and west.
The low level wind shear across the southeast will diminish by 07-08z Saturday. MVFR then IFR CIGS will quickly spread north into the area Saturday evening as moisture surges north ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Winds remain elevated across the southeast, but they'll be coming down steadily over the next few hours as the low level jet mix pushes off to the east. The high clouds and mixing may help to keep temps up a few degrees vs what we had in the fcst.
1228 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure lingers across the deep south tonight.
259 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 As of 2 AM, the northward extent of the low clouds is located across portions of west KY into the bootheel of Missouri. Due to the southerly fetch of air, temperatures are quite a bit warmer tonight, held up in the 30s in most locations. In western Kentucky, where the low clouds have pushed in, readings are in the 40s.
Otherwise, static westerly flow around southern periphery of Ontario closed low will lead to breezy gradient winds over the terminals. Upper low centered just north of Lake Superior will broaden with the addition of upper energy dropping through Central Canada and the Northern Plains.
Ridge aloft was still producing subsidence and a capping inversion. The low level moistening is a good start though and morning soundings showed precipitable water had risen between 1. The GFS and HRRR have been showing a little precip near the lower Kissimmee River. The higher dew points and max temps in the lower-mid 90s will produce heat indices around 100 this afternoon in some areas.
755 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing comparatively dry conditions over the central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula under a mid level ridge centered just east of the region, while much higher moisture is visible over the Panhandle associated with thunderstorms along a weak front. This front is not forecast to be able to displace the ridge across the Florida Peninsula, and generally rain free conditions are expected once again this afternoon.
Those recreating at the higher elevations should be alert for changing weather. Anglin With an upper level ridge of high pressure residing over the region for the next few days, expect above normal temperatures across the region.
Strong high pressure aloft will encompass the interior west through midweek.
631 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 The latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving east southeast through southeast South Dakota. On Tuesday and Tuesday evening, a series of short wave troughs will move southeast through the region.
1103 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A cold front progressing across Illinois today may trigger a few showers and storms. Large upper low clearly seen on water vapor imagery early this morning just north of the Minnesota arrowhead. While a lot of the activity will be closer to the low, the arrival of one of the waves will trigger some isolated convection by mid afternoon from about I-55 east, where CAPE's are progged to reach about 1000 J/kg. As the upper wave should arrive later in the day, the warmer weather will linger for another day, with highs mainly in the lower 80s. The upper pattern will be slow to transition through mid week, but the broad trough will slowly shift east as the upper low hangs out over northern Ontario.
A weak cold front located across Central Nebraska will slowly drop south during the morning hours, "backdooring" its way across the forecast area by the afternoon. Ketcham NW flow slowly shifts east of the area for Tue night, with gradually increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow for Wed into the weekend. This return moist flow will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high plains, for the late afternoon and overnight hours. Upper low continues to churn over the northern Great Lakes with strong northwest flow in place over the northern/central Plains. A weak cold front stretches from eastern MO into north central KS.
626 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow across the Northland. The GFS, NAM, RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. Tonight's cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.
705 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A cut off upper level low will continue to spin over the Upper Midwest and south central Canada today. Remainder of the night looks quiet as high pressure drifts south of the CWFA. This will cause an attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
703 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure passes south of the area today.
Northerly flow aloft continues today, as an upper low maintains its position over southern Ontario. Highs will be cooler today with mid/upper 50s in the Turtle Mountains, while low to mid 60s will occur elsewhere. Overnight lows overall will range the upper 30s from western into most of central ND, with lower 40s James River Valley where enough cloudiness remains in association with the Ontario upper low. The Ontario upper low slowly shifts east Tuesday.
632 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Upper low continues to spin across the western Great Lakes. The next lobe rotating around the low could help trigger isolated showers today across the northern Plains/upper Mississippi River Valley, in response to the cool temps aloft and very steep lapse rates.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 64 83 62 / 60 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 62 81 60 / 30 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 82 60 / 20 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 58 80 56 / 10 10 30 20.
Should have a better chance for showers and storms today due to higher moisture levels and slightly warmer temperatures. There is also some weak surface convergence under the same area, what is left of yesterday's better defined cold front which is very subtle now. Light downslope winds should prevent any fog and keep temperatures the same or a little warmer than this morning.
1131 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A cut off upper level low will continue to spin over the Upper Midwest and south central Canada today. Remainder of the night looks quiet as high pressure drifts south of the CWFA. This will cause an attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
950 AM Update: Latest radar indicates that the lgt band of of shwrs ovr the far NE now lifting into Nrn NB, which will leave the Rgn msly cldy and cooler due to erly component sfc winds behind a weak back door cold front. This will lead to a rather cool day w/daytime temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s w/the warmer temps away from the Bangor- Bar Harbor region. Cloudy conditions with highs in the lower 60s are anticipated Tuesday with the risk of showers increasing later in the day with the occluded front.
1033 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 The local area will be located between low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a ridge across the lower Ohio Valley today.
Sunny skies this morning will give way to cumulus clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon. A warming trend will continue through Tuesday as a high-amplitude upper ridge moves slowly eastward through the region. Temperatures will be 3-6 degrees warmer today and another 3-6 degrees warmer on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be the warmest so far this year - reaching the lower 90s in the Treasure Valley (but well short of any records).
423 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure continues over the Inland Northwest through Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a small chance of thunderstorms in the higher elevations, otherwise expect dry weather. A cold front arrives Tuesday night with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The low cigs will erode back to near the coast this afternoon. North winds have already started to increase this morning as a thermal trough redevelops.
The next upper level disturbance rotating around the large upper low over Ontario will move south across the region today. Cooler air and clouds also spreading southward currently, and wonder if this may limit instability a bit today.
However, there is persistent mid to upper level ridging, and total precipitable water has diminished by about a quarter of an inch in the last 24 hours. Expect east to southeast winds less than 10 knots with potential for cloud lines but these will be challenged due to high pressure aloft.
KDHT has the highest confidence to see these chances so decided to add a PROB30 group for this period. A frontal boundary should push into the northeastern portions of the forecast area later today but then lift back to the north and east by Tuesday as a warm front.
A weak cold front located across Central Nebraska will slowly drop south during the morning hours, "backdooring" its way across the forecast area by the afternoon. Ketcham NW flow slowly shifts east of the area for Tue night, with gradually increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow for Wed into the weekend. This return moist flow will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high plains, for the late afternoon and overnight hours. A weak SE sagging cold front that was about to cross the KS/OK border at issuance should stall as it ventures further into OK & with weak high pressure spreading slowly S/SE NW winds ~13kts should become light & variable early this evening.
9am update: High pressure pushing into eastern Montana with upper ridge to the west. Ebert Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large trough runs southward through Manitoba and into eastern Dakotas and the Upper Mississippi Valley. To the west a large ridge runs northern from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest and up into British Columbia where it crests over the Yukon Territory. This is creating an express-lane of northern flow across the high plains of Alberta, eastern Montana, and Wyoming. Today through Tuesday: With the coldest air aloft having moved off farther east, the ridge from the west slowly gaining control, and cold air being pumped in at the surface, the atmospheric profile has stabilized.
A few isolated showers will continue through the morning as a cold front makes its way through the forecast area. The old frontal boundary may try to sneak back into the forecast area during the afternoon as a warm front.
608 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A reinforcing cold front moves through this morning.
745 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. Showers associated with an exiting cold front will diminish by mid-morning as high pressure builds back in out of the west. Scattered showers will continue on Tuesday as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough, and again Fri with low pressure.
724 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 The local area will be located between low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a ridge across the lower Ohio Valley today.
515 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 A few isolated showers will continue through the morning as a cold front makes its way through the forecast area. The old frontal boundary may try to sneak back into the forecast area during the afternoon as a warm front.
322 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure ridging will bring warmer air aloft with 700 mb temps up to 12 to 13C by Wednesday afternoon.
400 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 By mid-afternoon, a cold front had moved through the entire CWA. Outside of the severe thunderstorm watch, thunderstorms will still be possible until the mid-level trough axis passes, but with tall/skinny CAPE, deep showers should be the primary mode.
418 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Tonight through Wednesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a weak low over southwest Alabama and an approaching cold front over the ArkLaTex. The closed low helping support the approaching cold front was noted on satellite imagery over Iowa at mid afternoon. This low will continue to drop south southeast tonight and across northeast Mississippi early Wednesday evening. This closed low will maintain the chance of light rain and light drizzle across the northeast half of our CWA Wednesday despite the cold front clearing our CWA shortly after sunrise.
318 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Weak high pressure will hold over the region through Wednesday as low pressure passes well offshore.
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO A trough of low pressure located over the Central United States will move east this week and be over the eastern United States by late in the week. The trough will also strengthen while moving eastward, pushing a stationary front over the Southeastern United States southward into the Florida Peninsula.
Issued by National Weather Service LITTLE ROCK AR 245 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area tonight, as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Aloft, a closed low over the midwest will drop down into the midsouth region by Wednesday night, and will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through that time frame.
Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night): The combination of a 500mb trough across the central United States and a weak cold front moving through the CWA tonight will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Wed afternoon compared to the previous couple of days but will still be very warm across the CWA.
The cold front is currently beginning to enter our CWA and is best evident by pressure rises behind the frontal boundary. CAPE values this afternoon will be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range with the higher values maximized across the eastern CWA. Cooler air is expected to filter into the region behind the front as is already evident by the near 60 degree temperatures in the Abilene region north of the front. Should be nice overall, with highs in the lower to middle 80s over much of the area.
545 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Weak high pressure will hold over the region through Wednesday as low pressure passes well offshore.
306 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Weak high pressure will build south of the region today and will hold over the region tonight and Wednesday as low pressure passes well offshore.
1221 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 An upper low is currently centered over Minnesota, and is forecast to steadily move southward today into Iowa. As it does so, it will advect cooler air into the area, both at the surface and aloft. Skies will start to clear and winds will start to decrease from west to east as high pressure builds in, but lows will depend heavily on how quickly this happens.
157 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017 Upper low has shifted over southern MN/northern IA, with a 100 kt jet in northerly flow over the western Dakotas. Temperatures across the southwestern and central SD plains will dip into the low to mid 30s, and frost is expected to develop by morning. The upper ridge will result in a mild and dry Wednesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
438 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Surface analysis as of 1 PM CDT showed an approaching cold front stretching from Del Rio to Waco towards Shreveport, with a weak prefrontal wind shift entering portions of the Brazos Valley.
303 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight as a cold front moves through the state. Upper low pressure will move south through Missouri tonight and clip northeast Arkansas on Wednesday. Rain chances will continue until this low moves east of the state. Clouds and the presence of the upper low Wednesday will keep our temperatures cool.
640 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure centered along the mid Atlantic coast will move off the coast tonight.
At the surface, an elongated low pres trough was located from James Bay across Lake Superior into southern WI. However, the stronger q-vector convergence associated with the main shrtwv and closed low digging into IA will continue to remain south of Upper Michigan, and drier ne flow circulating around high pres centered over northern Ontario will continue to keep much of the northern tier and eastern counties dry today. A low pres trough lingering over the area will maintain fairly light winds across the lake through Tuesday.
125 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds to NY and PA through Wednesday.
231 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds to NY and PA through Wednesday.
Much Cooler and Rainy Overnight and Wednesday. A deepening upper low over Iowa will dive south to Missouri overnight. Steady pressure falls continue across the area this afternoon as a broad area of low pressure develops. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along a weak cold front from IL down into MO. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s. Warmer for the Memorial Day Weekend with MCS activity.
Forecast attention continues to be focused on the strong cold front and its associated high winds expected to push through northeast Montana tomorrow. A tightly-wound low pressure system will slide from the British Columbia coastline east-southeastward through northern Montana. After internal and external collaboration, the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning and expanded. Some recent model data runs have come in with slightly lesser wind speeds, but given the general synoptic consistency and pattern trends, we felt that it was warranted to forecast on the higher side of the model consensus data and even nudge those numbers up a bit more. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected near and ahead of the cold front.
WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations. an upstream ridge oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.
Low pressure system will begin to move in and ahead of it a frontal boundary push through our area.
1236 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Relatively cool air over the cloudy region in the southeast with much warmer air over the sunny west and central creating thermal/pressure differences and enhanced winds the earlier forecast did not account for. Updated clouds and raise highs into the lower 70s northwest. High pressure will move later today. It will be breezy today across the James Valley as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the approaching high pressure center. An upper low across southern Canada will pull a cold front through western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will form along the cold front.
1237 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Relatively cool air over the cloudy region in the southeast with much warmer air over the sunny west and central creating thermal/pressure differences and enhanced winds the earlier forecast did not account for. Updated clouds and raise highs into the lower 70s northwest. High pressure will move later today. It will be breezy today across the James Valley as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the approaching high pressure center. An upper low across southern Canada will pull a cold front through western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will form along the cold front.
1239 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Large upper low will move southward today along the eastern edge of the forecast area, with an attendant short wave in an east to west orientation moving through this morning. 0-1km ML cape is very minimal, and MU cape is all bottled up in the lowest kilometer with virtually none about 900mb. With a bit of gradient producing modest wind speeds, lows should stay in the lower to mid 40s.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 50's. An upper level low will develop over the area Wednesday in response to a strong disturbance dropping into the west side of the main trof. Given the track of the low and the development of a TROWAL, widespread rainfall amounts between 0.
/Issued 331 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ Upper low centered over Iowa this afternoon forecast to drop south toward the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday, with a cold front being driven south of the area this evening. Clouds will be more persistent across western AR through Wednesday given proximity of upper low, with a few showers possible through the day.
Rain chances return tonight as another cold front pushes through the area.
401 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Expecting temps to gradually decrease the rest of the evening with the passage of a cold front earlier today. Most of the scattered light showers that developed on the backside of the upper level low have departed the CWA this afternoon. Although still cooler than normal, Wednesday looks to be a much nicer day than today as weak ridging moves into the area.
109 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Cold front extends from west central Illinois into south central Missouri late this morning. Cold front will very slowly progress southeastward through the day on Tuesday with a continued threat for precipitation. Highest chance of showers and storms because of the timing of the cold front will be across central portions of the forecast area. Coolest locations are expected to be across northwestern sections of the forecast area with highs in the low 60s and warmest areas including portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri topping out in the low 70s. Gosselin Track of the upper low is a little further west today, with it moving down along the Mississippi River on Wednesday.
1239 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A cold front will move through Arkansas this afternoon and evening. This will happen as a cold front passes through the state from the Plains. Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front will arrive from the Plains today, and will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.