Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
258 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper level high over the SW CONUS/NW Mexico will remain in place although some westward translation is expected as a weak disturbance moves out of the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. This disturbance will help to drive a cold front into the Texas Panhandle. Indications are that storms may fire again this afternoon along the western edge of the Theta-E ridge which should be some 60-90 miles west of where it was yesterday. This trend has been seen for several days and given the added assistance of compressional heating ahead of the cold front, see no reason to cool things off. Finally, some slightly cooler temperatures are in sight for Friday thanks to a weak front, though they'll still be several degrees above climatological norms.
327 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Slow-moving vertically-stacked low pressure has reached James Bay early this morning. Initial cold front is in the process of moving thru our CWA attm. Narrow band of increased low level moisture along and just ahead of the cold front has provided both key ingredients. Narrow dry slot immediately behind the cold front early this morning will give way to plenty of wrap-around moisture advecting into Northern Michigan beginning mid to late morning and continuing thru the afternoon and tonight. Afternoon high temps will range from the lower 70s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 80s near Saginaw Bay. as temps will be significantly cooler. A trough extending from the East coast into the Great Lakes will lead to cooler and less humid weather through the weekend.
Weak height falls within broad cyclonic flow aloft on the southern periphery of upper trough moving through Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes will glace the area on Thursday. Moist airmass over central PA is expected to destabilize under strong diurnal heating with scattered Tstorms anticipated in advance of a cold front reaching Lake Erie by 00z Fri. High heat indices over the lower Susquehanna Valley Thursday afternoon with maximum HX values in the mid to upper 90s but values will lower by Friday.
A ridge to our south will provide warm and very dry conditions for the remainder of this week.
Model soundings depict a very unstable atmosphere throughout the Mid-South this evening with MUCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg, 0-3km lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid-90's, these highs coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70's could lead to heat index values near 105 degrees in some locations not impacted by convective thunderstorms.
Likely POPs were kept in the forecast for Thursday afternoon with front and mid level trough, but will be re-evaluated with next update. Isolated showers were maintained on Friday with the longwave trough over the northeast but latest forecast soundings indicate largely stable conditions so coverage should be minimal with a focus across northern zones.
Synoptic Setup: A hot, high pressure airmass is currently bottled up over the southwest quarter of the CONUS while zonal flow resides over the northwest quadrant of the CONUS. A weak trough is stretched across the southern western Quarter of Canada where a much cooler airmasses currently exists. A closed low is embedded in this cooler air over the British Columbian coastline. Tonight through Friday night: The closed low over British Columbia will drop south slightly, forcing a weak ridge to form over Montana in response.
Latest surface analysis continue to show a ridge of high pressure Southeast United States and north half of Gulf of Mexico. Upper air analysis showed a high over the southwest CONUS, a short wave from central Missouri to east Oklahoma, another wave over western Kansas and a weak trough axis from Georgia to north central Gulf of Mexico.
657 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Very warm and humid conditions are expected again today across central Pennsylvania with heat index values approaching 100 degrees in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Focus for storms over central PA will likely be a pre-frontal/lee trough or low level convergence zone ahead of the main cold front back in the Ohio Valley. So confidence in the isolated to scattered severe storm risk is on the lower side of average for the time being. Portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley will likely get very close to heat advisory criteria this afternoon with fcst max HX values approaching 100F. The main cold front will traverse the area on Friday with any shower or thunderstorm activity expected to be very isolated in coverage due to much weaker instability and lower boundary layer moisture.
Embedded in the zonal flow was an upper level short wave trough over Eastern Colorado. Ahead of the short wave trough a line of strong to severe thunderstorms had developed along a cold front that was moving south across the Tri-State Area. Models indicate the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the line of storms early this morning. During the late afternoon another upper level short wave trough will develop over the far western part of the area. The storm chances will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area this evening before the short wave trough fills later in the evening. Overnight another upper level short wave trough will approach the Tri-State Area from the north. As the period progresses the ridge that has been impacting the region will strengthen and limit moisture from moving up into the CWA.
A ridge axis associated with Western Atlantic high pressure remains situated over the north half of the Peninsula maintaining SE-S flow and reinforced by the ECSB. Fairly strong and deep layer ridging will remain situated across the north and central FL peninsula through this period. Very strong mid/upper level high pressure builds over the central CONUS through the period. The Bermuda ridge axis remains northward of central FL through the extended. Persistent setup with prevailing SE-S flow courtesy of the Burmuda ridge axis as located over north FL. Generally favorable boating conditions with the low-level ridge axis initially near the central peninsula lifting northward through the period allowing onshore flow to deepen.
301 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 For the next few days, the upper level pattern will be defined by a ridge over the desert southwest and a broad trough across the Great Lakes. Thus far, the ridge has been too dominant to allow any convection across our CWA.
241 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 08z surface analysis had weak trough across northern MN into southern ND. Upper low to the northwest of the region will continue to push a series of disturbances across the area through the weekend.
423 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Very warm and muggy conditions persist today with showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of cold front. otherwise high pressure will build over the area this weekend with mostly dry seasonably warm weather expected. High pressure will gradually build in over the weekend with mainly dry weather.
400 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Northwest flow responsible for cooler than average temperatures and low humidity today. Canadian high pressure begins to retreat east Friday, with 850mb temperatures increasing west river in return flow.
327 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front extending from Michigan to northern Missouri. Synoptic cold front will make only slow progress southeastward today: however, most model guidance indicates a dry day across the area. Meanwhile, a cooler/drier airmass will gradually filter into the area from the northwest, allowing overnight low temperatures to drop into the lower to middle 60s everywhere except the far SE.
305 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 With an upper level trough digging across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region, the northern Plains will see flow turn northwesterly. With cooler air aloft continuing to advect into the region, sunny skies this morning will become partly cloudy as cumulus clouds begin streaming into the area from the north. Increased instability in this area will also allow for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon near the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Concur with the deterministic GFS which maintains a quasi- stationary E-W upper ridge over the SRN CONUS with a progressive pattern over the NRN CONUS.
The storms we experience today will fire up in the vicinity of an area of low pressure and its associated frontal boundaries, all of which are currently situated over the south central plains and Ozark region and northeastward into the Great Lakes. The precipitation will become most widespread this afternoon and this evening, as a cold front dives southward out of the Great Lakes region and across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. A rather zonal flow pattern is anticipated early in the period with a ridge centered over the Desert SW and Southern Plains Region and another centered near Bermuda. In between a trough will extend form the Hudson Bay region south into the Great Lakes to MS Valley regions. This should send the cold front south of the OH River by Friday evening and then into the area.
Some cooler air moving into North Dakota late this afternoon with temperatures only in the lower to mid 60s across northeast North Dakota. This cooler air will be moving into our region through tonight and remain into Thursday. Otherwise, the models show several short wave troughs dropping across the region from the northwest through Thursday night bringing off and on chances of showers and storms.
A stolid mid level ridge over the southwest U. and high pressure over the Gulf interacting with lower pressure inland is resulting in fairly persistent short term conditions. High pressure will remain in control keeping dry conditions in place. /issued 249 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A weak, inverted 500 mb trough has now moved well inland into Mexico, per latest water-vapor satellite imagery, after causing minimal impacts to the CWA.
434 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Tightened pressure gradient between offshore high pressure and inland trough will produce warm and humid conditions again tonight. Bermuda High continues to extend over from the western Atlantic and Piedmont trough inland through the forecast period. Low level thicknesses will slightly drop and 850mb temps btw 19-20 C which supports temps in the low/mid 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.
407 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Not too much change in the overall airmass from yesterday with the upper ridge continuing to weaken a bit with an upper trough trapped beneath the ridge along the Tennessee Valley and Gulf coast states. Large hail potential will be low as temperatures aloft will remain warm and freezing level will be around 14.
448 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front will move southeast across our area today, possibly causing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair weather is expected behind the front tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s. Another cold front will move through the area friday, possibly causing a few showers over southern michigan, northeast indiana, and northwest ohio. Highs friday will be below normal, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Frontal boundary rather broad/ill defined attm and will prbly become more diffuse today as wswly flow mixes down today with main upr level shrtwv movg through base of longwave trof bypassing our area to the north. Temps should be considerably cooler with more cloudiness and highs ranging from the m70s nw to the l80s se.
A cold front may push the warm, moist air to the south on Friday. A broad upper trough to our north will continue lifting away from the area by the start of the period. Kept afternoon temps a touch below guidance considering the likelihood of lingering convective cloud debris and the lower confidence in TSRA timing. Central CONUS upper level ridge will be the dominant weather feature across the country.
323 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016 Today will be a generally warm and dry day as we transition into a brief ridge pattern.
Upper trough from the Queen Charlottes will move inland across southern BC Friday and bring 5 degs cooling to eastern Oregon, but not to western Idaho (yet). Trough will increase clouds in far northern zones Friday, with even a slight chance of a thunderstorm in eastern Valley Co, ID Friday afternoon. Upper level low situated to our north along the Canadian border is still being depicted with good model agreement.
1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1021 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with its axis extending westward across the east central FL coastal waters. Aloft, a massive heat wave ridge is centered over the Ozarks and extends from the desert southwest to the southeastern U. On the far eastern periphery of this ridge, an upper level cyclone has cutoff near the Bahamas. Northeast flow on the west side of this upper low will continue to supply a feed of unseasonably dry and stable air into the parched Atlantic coastal counties. Onshore winds developing early this afternoon will keep coastal highs in the lower 90s.
/Issued 401 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/ Upper level high pressure continues to weaken today; however, lee side troughing means southwest flow at the surface will translate into another day with triple digit heat for most. Sunday will see temps in the upper 90s as lee side troughing remains in place. However, a frontal boundary stemming from a low pressure system in eastern-central Canada will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
639 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Both the high resolution short range and coarser medium range guidance suggesting the greatest eastward expansion of the ridge axis and accompanying subsidence and capping lid for widespread convection spreading across most of the WFO PAH forecast area through Sunday.
if not a degree or so warmer in many locations. Chances for storms will increase some by the early part of the week as the upper ridge breaks down over the plains and retrogrades to the west some. Slightly cooler temperatures will likely accompany this slight pattern shift.
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Over the next few hours, will be watching areas of showers and storms currently moving east-northeastward across portions of north central KS and south central NE along the nose of the low-level jet.
The 10Z KXMR sounding coming in a bit drier and warmer in the mid-levels than this time yesterday.
1121 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Subtropical ridge centered over NM and much of N TX and OK to dominate the pattern through the remainder of this weekend.
MORNING UPDATE: Changes to the forecast first focused on whether the showers associated with the backside of the low over southern Saskatchewan would drop south. At this time Satellite and model trends seem to pull a rapid eastward progression of the low preventing the drop down swing of thunderstorms from passing the International Border. Next, a second wave of minor showers is anticipated to develop in the northwest flow left in the wake of the low this evening and move east across the northern tier of zones tonight.
An elongated and fairly strong ridge stretches across the southwest United States this morning. With this ridge overhead, the flow aloft is light so much of the moisture that has been in the area the past few days will linger, leading to another chance of showers and thunderstorms today.
Dry weather conditions along with above average inland temperatures will persist through the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Mid/upper level high pressure over central and southern California will again result in warm to very warm inland temperatures this afternoon.
Initially this morning, a few isolated showers may be found as far east as the highway 283 corridor around 12z before dissipation. By tonight, the week cold frontal boundary is modeled by the NAM/WRF to move into northern-west central KS, providing a convergence zone for thunderstorms to develop by early evening, with locally heavy rain, lightning and strong gusty winds.
A weak upper level trough over the area will bring another day of below normal temperatures to southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Expect smoke layers in the central Idaho Mountains northeast of Idaho City, especially from the Lowman area east to Stanley. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. As our upper level flow changes from west today to northwest tonight and then to southwest Sunday, warmer air will start to move back into the region.
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 An area of high pressure aloft will expand from the central U. An expansive area of high pressure aloft centered over the central/southern plains will shunt the main band of westerlies near or north of the Canadian border.
Light mostly east flow across Keys waters will be maintained by a weak ridge across South and Central Florida.
See a lot of differing solutions in the high resolution model guidance, which reflects this high uncertainty. A cold front will move across the CWA this afternoon, reaching the RRV around mid afternoon and then into west central MN in the early evening. Heavy rainshowers are also expected with storms in this region with the high PWAT values.
913 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Some slightly drier mid and upper level air has moved into the region this morning via 12Z raob and water vapor loop courtesy of an upper level low spinning offshore the Florida east coast. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft will help to steepen lapse rates.
Surface pressure gradient between low pressure in SK and high pressure west of the continental divide will maintain breezy W to NW winds through this afternoon with temperatures near to just slightly below seasonal averages. Weak high pressure ridging moving into MT behind upper-level trough exiting into the Dakotas/Saskatchewan will bring mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high-level clouds today. Pressure gradient between the high and the upper trough will keep surface winds breezy over the central plains/valleys, with widespread gusts of 20-30 kts through early evening.
High pressure in position over California this morning has compressed the marine layer down to about 1000 feet.
While this should bring a break in the humidity, it could also stand that any mixing may bring temperatures up above 90 faster than locations to the south, where the warmer dewpoints and cloud cover remains. But, this should be sufficient enough to provide a cooler night, for the northern half of the region, than previous nights. Only maintaining a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms during the evening as the ridge axis shifts east and flattens due to a weak wave passing through the southern Great Lakes. This moisture, combined with hot temperatures, will again have heat indices in the mid to upper 90s for most locations west of the Ridges.
500 mb height of 592 dm is down from the past couple days as the center of the upper high is further to the northwest.
East- southeast winds with some gusts upwards the low-20s knots range this afternoon before dropping off late evening.
Both the high resolution short range and coarser medium range guidance suggesting the greatest eastward expansion of the ridge axis and accompanying subsidence and capping lid for widespread convection spreading across most of the WFO PAH forecast area through Sunday.
However, the higher coverage (around 50%) should develop along the trailing convergence boundary over extreme northeastern Alabama, where slightly better instability will exist and mainly in the early afternoon hours. Tweaked dewpoints slightly lower and based on current temperatures highs in the lower to mid 90s look reasonable (cannot rule out a 97 degree high or two).
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 74 96 75 / 50 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 74 93 72 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 95 73 93 72 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 94 69 92 69 / 20 10 30 30.
With the core of the ridging aloft retrograding back toward the swrn CONUS and the sea breeze pushing inland through the day, expect to see showers/storms spreading nwd.
Cloud cover will be slow to dissipate today as southerly flow in the low-levels remains intact today. Any breaks in the cloud cover will help to destabilize the lower levels this afternoon. Some of the hi-res models are showing convection developing over the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande, then moving eastward into the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards plateau during the evening hours. We do expect the subtropical ridge axis to strengthen slightly over southern Texas and this should nudge the more active southwest flow aloft a little farther north. High temperatures in the lower to possibly mid 90s along the Rio Grande will produce heat index values of 100 to 105 Tuesday afternoon.
However, didn't go too crazy yet as we are still in the low/mid 60s even with the heavy rain. The upper low will remain nearly stationary over this region while an upper-deck trof strengthens from MT to the SW CA coast.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool, but gradually warmer later in the week. A very broad upper level trough continues to stretch from Manitoba southwestward to off the West Coast. Embedded in this trough are a few areas of low pressure and short wave troughs. Temperatures associated with the upper level trough are unseasonably cold as well. By Tuesday an upper low rotates around the base of the upper trough leading to another round of scattered precip. By mid-week high pressure begins to build off the West Coast and eventually over the Bay Area. Upper trough still over region today but most -shra will be inland over the hills. SFO Bridge Approach. Mainly light nw wind and seas will continue through Tuesday with an upper low over the region.
637 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 8Z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front situated along a line from KONL to KEAR to KHYS. Aloft broad southwesterly flow was noted ahead of an upper level western conus trough. This trough, as it shifts east, will be a major weather maker for our area by the end of the work week and looks to dominate our weather into the weekend.
1059 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast coast Tuesday.
703 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will ensure ideal aviation conditions today and tonight providing clear sky with calm wind becoming light south. as amplified upper level ridge axis moves overhead. The significant change is the low level winds will shift to the south/southwest this afternoon. Strengthening low level southwest flow on Tuesday ahead of cold front will allow temperatures to reach and likely exceed 80 degrees as 850 mb temps reach between 13 to 15 c. An increase in clouds/convective debris during the afternoon could cause a disruption to the forecasted highs in the low to mid 80s however. but there looks to be little to no upper level support as flatter upper level ridge holds.
521 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE Broad upper level trough across the NW CONUS will keep southwest flow aloft in place across NM today and tonight. A secondary Pacific low should carve a trough across the western tier of the US during the weekend. Models are trending a littler further south with the Pacific low/trough.
North winds were around 10 knots at buoy 41009 this morning as frontal trough settled southward.
Temperatures are on track to reach the lower 80s inland and mid 70s near the lakeshore. There is a chance of showers and storms at KMSN after about 09z Tue and at KMKE/KUES/KENW, after 12z Tue as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. Winds are southeast today as high pressure slides off to the east.