Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures remain in the lower to mid 40s across much of the CWA. Tonight, high pressure will begin to build over the region and will settle over the area on Friday before quickly shifting east Friday Night. Attention then turns to the potent upper level low pressure system that will dive out of the Central Plains Friday Night.
Fairly sharp but mainly stable trough axis is currently rolling across the coast and as expected as delivered low clouds. Models are in good agreement that ridging will build in quickly for the weekend, bringing a return to warm and dry weather.
A weak sfc trof bisected AR fm NW to SW, with just a minor wind shift assocd with this feature. The abundant cloud cover on Fri wl keep highs about 5 to 10 cooler than today.
Based on yesterdays's trend and dryness of the surface air today we will side toward the warmer side percentile numbers, i. Of more interest is the wx on Fri when deep pre-frontal mixing results in even warmer/drier and much windier conditions.
The TN Valley region remains in a broad upr trough pattern over the East CONUS this morning, which will generally remain entrenched over the forecast period.
Interaction between low pressure east of Florida and high pressure ridging eastward in the Gulf of Mexico will produce gusty NW winds over the eastern gulf waters through Friday morning.
Backdoor cold front situated in North Dakota continues on a trajectory to the south southwest and during the day today will draw in a layer of low clouds in addition to temperatures falling into the 20s. Some issues confidence-wise on how quickly it will ensconce the CWA, with central South Dakota seeing another day well above freezing. HRRR mixed down gives us around 45kt which is in line with the higher order of NBM.
Freezing fog causing reduced visibility and patchy icy surfaces is the primary concern for this morning. In addition, wet roads from last evening may now have black ice with temperatures falling to freezing and below over most of the region. Focus later today shifts to a light wintry mix late this afternoon through early Friday as a weak trough of low pressure slides through the Northern Rockies. Forecast model soundings indicate a general lack of available moisture in the dendritic growth zone which may leave valleys under the threat for more freezing drizzle or a mix of drizzle and flurries. Freezing fog may develop once again tonight. It may sound like a broken record but relatively light flow on Friday night opens up the potential for another round of freezing fog/isolated freezing drizzle.
/issued 418 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022/ Tranquil marine conditions are expected into Friday, however a moderate onshore flow will develop Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
429 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the Northern Rockies with a notable wave over BC and upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge is located over eastern MT with northwest/west winds across our area. For today, mild and dry conditions are expected with thermal ridge just off to our west. Mid/high clouds moving atop the ridge will be on the increase across the region. This will send a sharp cold front through very late tonight and early Friday.
Dry and clear conditions as weak high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico and extends to east central Florida. Seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 70s. Fair boating conditions will becoming hazardous tonight as winds increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient from low pressure building to the northeast and high pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico.
/19/ Quiet, but slightly warmer conditions, will exist across the forecast area during the forecast period.
448 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 Currently - Winds continue to relax out of the northeast early this morning in advance of an approaching reinforcing cold front. Forecast - Expect light winds to back northwest to north this morning then freshen modestly this afternoon as the cold front bleeds into our area. Through the weekend, light winds will steadily clock around to southeast then south as another cold front begins its rapid march southeastwards through the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 304 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022/ The upper level ridge axis will slowly move towards the forecast area today keeping our weather quiet. An upper trough will enter the Pacific Northwest today and dig into the Intermountain West Tonight. As this trough nears the Rockies, a Lee cyclone will form over southeastern Colorado and move south into the Texas Panhandle, bringing strong downslope winds to the area. The aforementioned trough will push a cold front through the area near sunset, helping to extend elevated winds into the nighttime hours.
402 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 The TN Valley region remains in a broad upr trough pattern over the East CONUS this morning, which will generally remain entrenched over the forecast period.
608 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 There is a low chance of drizzle and flurries today, perhaps a brief period of freezing drizzle until midday with temperatures hovering near freezing.
A storm system and associated cold front will sweep through New Mexico on Friday, increasing winds across the area.
a high amplitude upper level ridge axis currently approaching the Continental Divide will deamplify a bit this afternoon as a compact upper level low within a larger trough moves into the Pacific Northwest region. Tonight, south to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph gradually veer to the northwest (far eastern Colorado) as a cold front starts to enter the western portion of the forecast area ahead of the approaching upper trough. as the upper trough moves into the area and cold front blows through north to northwest winds gusting 35 to 55 mph are currently expected from late morning through the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s to around 50.
This is likely due to the stagnate air mass in place as a result of persistent high pressure. Southwest flow aloft on the west side of the ridge continues. An upper low moving into the PacNW will weaken the ridge over NorCal today which means our daytime highs today will cool a bit, expect mainly the upper 50s to upper 60s. Expect breezy to locally gusty offshore winds to impact our higher terrain in North Bay, East Bay, and into the San Francisco Peninsula as that trough tracks southeastward and grazes the Great Basin. Meanwhile, there's an upper level cut-off low over the Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.
A cold front was shifting south across the region, with the resulting north winds pulling low cloud cover into central and east central WI. High pressure will build into the region this evening, with subsidence and dry air advection causing partial clearing to occur. Used a few meso-models to focus the highest pops and qpf over Kewaunee and southeast Door counties. Due to the low predictability, will stick with the general model blend.
/issued 1127 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022/ A weak cold front is pushing through the Mid-South. It is basically a wind shift to the WNW and eventually to the north tonight as high pressure slides into the area. Temperatures remain in the lower to mid 40s across much of the CWA. Tonight, high pressure will begin to build over the region and will settle over the area on Friday before quickly shifting east Friday Night. Attention then turns to the potent upper level low pressure system that will dive out of the Central Plains Friday Night.
A cooler air mass will move eastward across the central Plains today and tonight. Highs Fri will be in the lower to mid 50s across north and central AR, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the south. The upper troughs that will provide the forcing for a potential winter weather event this weekend have entered the PAC NW today. The troughs (one over W Canada, the other over WA/OR/ID) will move SSEward, merging as they move into the Plains region Friday, and becoming a closed upper low Fri night/Sat morning (overnight period) over the central Plains.
It's a dry and warmer day today with high pressure prevailing across the region. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Quiet, but slightly warmer conditions, will exist across the forecast area during the forecast period.
Patchy light rain, or light snow in the ridges, is expected with low pres encroachment this aftn. Clouds and weak cold, to neutral temperature advection under the upper troughing will keep temperature about 5 degrees above average tonight. Cold advection will strengthen on the strength of deep northerly flow following passage of the aforementioned trough axis on Friday. Upr troughing/cold advection will hold weekend temperature about 10 degrees under the averages.
The entire CWA has clouded over already this morning with high clouds moving in over the west, and low clouds behind a back door cold front across the eastern part of the area. Backdoor cold front situated in North Dakota continues on a trajectory to the south southwest and during the day today will draw in a layer of low clouds in addition to temperatures falling into the 20s. Some issues confidence-wise on how quickly it will ensconce the CWA, with central South Dakota seeing another day well above freezing. HRRR mixed down gives us around 45kt which is in line with the higher order of NBM.
A mid/upper level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest and cut-off low pressure off of the southern California Coast continue dominate our weather pattern. Meanwhile, this cloud cover and the trough to the north have held temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s as of early afternoon. Look additional warming through the afternoon with the region's warmer locations reaching into the 60s (verses 70s yesterday). As the aforementioned mid/upper level trough drops into the Intermountain West and the Rockies, breezy to gusty offshore winds will develop in the higher terrain around the North Bay, East Bay San Francisco Bay Area on Friday. While the cut-off low pressure looks to linger off of southern California and Baja California, the broader ridge will build northward and strengthen through the upcoming weekend. KSFO Bridge Approach.
1021 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 The entire CWA has clouded over already this morning with high clouds moving in over the west, and low clouds behind a back door cold front across the eastern part of the area. Backdoor cold front situated in North Dakota continues on a trajectory to the south southwest and during the day today will draw in a layer of low clouds in addition to temperatures falling into the 20s. Some issues confidence-wise on how quickly it will ensconce the CWA, with central South Dakota seeing another day well above freezing. HRRR mixed down gives us around 45kt which is in line with the higher order of NBM.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a weak trough advancing into the high pressure ridge positioned across the western states. The system clears east of the region Friday afternoon with the upper ridge rebounding across the area Friday night.
Low pressure will deepen to our northwest overnight which will cause winds to become southerly and increase on Friday. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon bringing strong northerly winds behind it and much cooler temperatures.
1223 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 A weak low pressure system will move southeast across the region today, resulting in the possibility for a few showers.
1004 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 An active morning was noted in over the lower Keys as scattered convection associated with a pre-frontal trough crossed through, with one particular cell near the Saddlebunch and Lower Sugarloaf containing radar indications of small hail. The morning sounding at Key West illustrated how narrowly-channeled the deep moisture was in advance of the trough, with precipitable water values still below 1.
Next, the moist, convectively-unstable environment of the pre-frontal trough. Temperatures were in the mid 70s, with dewpoints now having fallen both with advection and probably some boundary layer mixing into the lower 60s. Aloft, a deep trough is moving through the Great Lakes through the southeast states, eventually to consolidate cyclogenesis off the mid Atlantic coast. Dry northwest flow should dominate with dry, cooler temperatures tonight.
245 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Recent water vapor imagery was showing an upper low entering the Pacific Northwest with widespread high-level moisture from southern California into the northern High Plains then spreading southeast as northwest flow remain largely in place.
200 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 A closed low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly weaken as it drops southeast across the western states overnight. Warm advection and an increasing westerly gradient is expected ahead of this trough. High clouds will increase this afternoon with a lowering cloud deck expected across the north overnight as this trough approaches. Conditions will improve by tomorrow evening as this trough and associated front move southeast of the forecast area.
1127 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 A weak cold front is pushing through the Mid-South. It is basically a wind shift to the WNW and eventually to the north tonight as high pressure slides into the area. Temperatures remain in the lower to mid 40s across much of the CWA. Tonight, high pressure will begin to build over the region and will settle over the area on Friday before quickly shifting east Friday Night. Attention then turns to the potent upper level low pressure system that will dive out of the Central Plains Friday Night.
A ridge in the Rockies is continuing to bring northwest flow aloft to the central plains. Friday a strong cold front will move through western Kansas with good mixing behind the front we should see winds pick up quickly out of the northwest sustained at around 30 mph with gusts of 50 mph or greater by afternoon.
1223 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 There is a low chance of drizzle and flurries today, perhaps a brief period of freezing drizzle until midday with temperatures hovering near freezing.
A ridge in the Rockies is continuing to bring northwest flow aloft to the central plains. Friday a strong cold front will move through western Kansas with good mixing behind the front we should see winds pick up quickly out of the northwest sustained at around 30 mph with gusts of 50 mph or greater by afternoon. We will only have one cold day behind this low, as upstream downslope conditions will resume immediately across the northern High Plains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 48 35 49 37 / 10 0 0 40 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 44 31 46 34 / 10 0 0 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 30 45 31 45 34 / 10 0 0 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 41 28 42 29 / 30 10 0 40 70.
Uncertainty still exists regarding the exact track of the system, which leads to lower confidence in where the highest snowfall totals will end up by the end of the event. A dry cold front that traversed the CWA during the day is now clear of the area to our south. Overnight weak high pressure will build into the region this evening, centered over the Mississippi River to our northeast.
1050 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the Northern Rockies with a notable wave over BC and upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge is located over eastern MT with northwest/west winds across our area. For today, mild and dry conditions are expected with thermal ridge just off to our west. Mid/high clouds moving atop the ridge will be on the increase across the region. This will send a sharp cold front through very late tonight and early Friday.
Meanwhile, a weak surface boundary associated with the trough over the eastern CONUS will slide south from the Tennessee Valley region later this afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler due to the weak boundary and a slight increase in cloud cover, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 60s.
217 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 The upper level trough axis sits off the southeast U. Cooler and drier air will continue to advect into the region on the back side of this trough and low pressure keeping mostly sunny skies and temperatures close to average for the next couple of days.
A low pressure system will strengthen west of the state, and winds will become SSEerly Friday. A weak sfc trof bisected AR fm NW to SW, with just a minor wind shift assocd with this feature. The abundant cloud cover on Fri wl keep highs about 5 to 10 cooler than today.
222 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Clear skies prevail across the area with temperatures mainly in the lower 70s. Winds tonight will remain light and variable, but with slightly higher dewpoints, lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night. Highs tomorrow will be about 1-3 degrees warmer than today, or in the middle to upper 70s. A strong trough axis will pass through the Central Plains tomorrow and this will send our next cold front into the area Friday night.
(This evening through Friday) Expect warm and dry conditions on Friday across the area due to low level west to southwest flow and a thermal ridge.
Most of the moisture is forecast to be in the low levels and lacking ice production in the dendritic zone, so freezing drizzle is possible tonight through Friday morning. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance for Kalispell and Missoula also show that fog will quickly return before the arrival of the weather disturbance this evening, if this happens, conditions will be even more favorable for freezing drizzle Friday morning.
215 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Tonight will be rather mild with lows in the low 30s to low 40s. This will be due to an increase in southwesterly winds responding to a surface lee trough that is expected to develop ahead of an approaching upper trough. The source of the upper trough is the closed low currently over the Pacific Northwest. Upper flow will become more meridional early tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough approaches the Central Plains and takes a sharp negative tilt. This meridional flow will help push a cold front quickly through the region tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Beginning on Friday evening, a cold front will be moving through the area.
Behind a passing cold front likely through KGUY/KDHT before the end of the TAF period, winds will back to northerly behind a passing cold front with northerly winds 25-30 kts with higher gusts at times. An upper level short wave trough over the northwest U. The short wave trough moving southeast across the Rockies will phase with a short wave trough moving south through the northern Plains on Friday. As these two phase it will help to send a powerful cold front through the Panhandles.
Pacific upper low has come inland to northwest Oregon this morning and that's where the pcpn is. The low will weaken and move southeastward through our CWA this evening, but when it gets into Idaho it will be barely strong enough for flurries in the mountains. A weak cold front will cross the region after 13/20z and generate MVFR/IFR conditions over higher elevations of SE OR and central ID in light snow showers. Generally VFR, but low stratus and valley fog will bring morning MVFR/IFR conditions as an upper ridge rebuilds into the area.
139 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Western CONUS ridge will remain in place over western NOAM as a stationary front wobbles over the region per several active impulses, supporting large temp fluctuations, some snow, and wind. LSA will begin to increase late tonight, with some light rain/freezing rain possible over the NE FA, where a strong warm nose will linger into the morning. The main round of LSA will shift across the area Friday morning right behind the sfc cold front (with temps falling through the day).
442 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 A closed low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly weaken as it drops southeast across the western states overnight. Warm advection and an increasing westerly gradient is expected ahead of this trough. High clouds will increase this afternoon with a lowering cloud deck expected across the north overnight as this trough approaches. Conditions will improve by tomorrow evening as this trough and associated front move southeast of the forecast area.
218 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Skies were mainly cloudy across the CWA this afternoon with temperatures ranging from near freezing over teh NE zones to near 50 near Winnett. A stationary front is helping to keep winds southeasterly and thus cooler over the NE zones while a SW wind is bringing in some warmer air over the SW. This evening, an Alberta Clipper will bring a cold front southeast through the CWA. This will increase NW winds and snow showers are possible in the higher hills of the northern, eastern and southern zone late tonight and Friday morning. Some models were hinting at some freezing drizzle tonight but more than likely low clouds will result.
2) Scattered to widespread light to moderate snowfall across southeast Wyoming with the highest amounts being in the mountains and areas west of the Laramie Range. Discussion: A fast moving cold front will push through southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle late Thursday night through Friday. Due to the progressive nature of the upper level trough associated with the cold front, the dynamics required for snowfall to occur will not reside in southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle very long. Snowfall will begin over western portions of the CWA with light to moderate snow, then the cold front drops through between 5 AM and 12 PM MST. Temperatures will be steadily dropping throughout the day as the cold front pushes through with temperatures Friday night in the single digits to teens and wind chills in the single digits.
/Now through Friday Night/ Very mild temperatures in progress across the Four State region with readings hitting 70 (or in the low 70s) in most areas for highs. The dry atmosphere in place will still promote decent radiational cooling tonight as winds die off and cloud cover remains of only the high and thin variety. The above two factors should keep high temperatures a little cooler tomorrow, although peak readings generally in the 65 to 70 degrees will still be around 10 degrees above average. Tomorrow night, a significant disturbance (tending to trend more significant with every model cycle) will be diving southeast toward the region and will spur low pressure developing and moving eastward down the I-20 corridor and into the region late in the night.
515 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 (This evening through Friday) Expect warm and dry conditions on Friday across the area due to low level west to southwest flow and a thermal ridge.
Weak high pressure will skirt the region with slightly cooler but dry weather.
The upper-level flow pattern will be in dramatic transition from a strong northwest flow pattern today to one featuring an anomalous trough quickly diving southward and deepening on the east side of the Rockies.
Current satellite imagery shows a clearing line on the higher clouds from Havre to Ennis, moving quickly eastward with a passing upper level ridge axis. Temperatures fall to the 20s for most areas tonight with much cooler temperatures (near seasonal mid-winter averages) in the 30s for most areas on Friday.
Fair weather will continue across the silver state for the next several days as a ridge of high pressure settles across the Great Basin.
Some ridges in northern Humboldt saw a bit more rain than expected, reaching 0. Temperatures have stayed cooler today with most areas in the low 50's. Cooler conditions will continue tomorrow, but clear skies will welcome glorious sun back into the area. Ridging should return for the weekend, bringing a quick return to warm, dry, and mostly clear weather.