Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1256 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A few scattered showers remain possible this afternoon as a cold front crosses. Building high pressure behind the exiting front should then return dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, the cold front continues to make slow southward progress, and is currently along a rough IDI-HLG line. Any additional showers ahead of the boundary should remain scattered in nature at best, and be confined mainly to the ridges. Our area will be in a northwest flow regime aloft, placed between slow- moving upper level low pressure over the northeast CONUS/Canadian Maritimes, and a ridge building from the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley and into Canada. While the upper low will continue to meander over far eastern Canada into the weekend, the ridge to our west will slowly break down and flatten.
TFJ An upper trof moving through the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front across Montana today. Wednesday should see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees cooler as the upper trof moves across the state. A weak blocking pattern develops, keeping the trof in the vicinity of Montana through the weekend. RAE FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR DISCUSSION: A strong cold front will march east later today bringing wind gusts possibly to 40 kts from the W/NW. A cold front will march east into the area later today with wind gusts to around 40 mph. Wednesday will be cooler with higher humidity.
1109 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to central Pennsylvania through this evening. The main pcpn driver will now be the primary sfc cold front pushing south-southeast from the I-80 corridor. Cloud trends as well as speed of the front will be monitored with categorical MRGL/SLGT risk outlooks covering much of the lower Susquehanna Valley. Conditions should dry out from northwest to southeast by Tuesday evening behind the cold front. Drier and cooler air shifts southward over the rest of central PA by late tonight, and expect lows more typical of late September by Wednesday morning, ranging from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s southeast.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 85 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 61 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 84 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 55 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0.
204 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to south central Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. Spotty shower activity is confined mainly along/ahead of sfc cold front pushing southeast along KJST-KIPT line at 1745Z. Upper-level low pressure will drop southward to a position over New England on Wednesday, while a cold front pushes well south of Pennsylvania.
321 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 20Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low starting to become absorbed into the main trough, which currently is advancing toward the Intermountain West. This may keep highs a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, but still very warm in the low 90s.
With high pressure anchored off the Southeast Atlantic Coast, our region will remain trapped in an east to northeast flow.
312 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Models show upper level ridging over our region pushing a little eastward tonight into Wednesday.
341 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through late week before a frontal system brings widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures by the weekend. Persistence isn't a bad forecast for Wednesday as a similar air mass will be in place beneath a pronounced upper-level ridge. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 60s as clouds begin to increase.
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in control of the regions weather today. The upper trough will remain across the southern plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Quiet weather will persist through the short term as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes slowly moves east. The main culprit is an amplifying ridge that'll stretch from the Central Plains northward into central Canada.
The latest water vapor imagery does depict an area of drier air aloft that continues to entrain ENE across ECntrl TX this morning, ahead of the closed low centered over the Srn Rockies, which should limit the Wwd extent of the deeper convection spreading along the outflow bndrys.
The cold front and gusty winds that passed through our CWA overnight and early this morning is now east of our CWA. HRRR still shows isolated showers in northern areas this afternoon as the upper trough passes through. Showers will end in the lower elevations by 18Z today.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon, while under the influence of an unstable atmosphere due to the trough that is passing through the region. Drier air will enter the region tonight as the current trough departs so showers will have a decreasing trend overnight. Cloud cover is forecast to remain in many places overnight, but Wednesday will start with chilly temperatures due to a much cooler airmass in place.
Cooler temperatures as well. Another very warm afternoon ongoing across Iowa with temperatures back into the lower 90s in the southwest and 80s elsewhere but generally below record levels. This upper low continues to the northeast tonight into Wednesday with primary impacts remaining west of Iowa. However, this wave keeps the thermal ridge in place near Iowa with warm conditions persisting tonight into Wednesday with slowly increasing southerly flow.
Weak high pressure northeast of the area will continue a relatively light E/NE flow across central FL through tomorrow.
113 PM MDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front moving E/SE through the CWA this afternoon will bring a strong NW wind to the area through this evening but afterward, things should be tranquil. The cold front at 6 pm should be close to the ND/MT state line with Cold air advection helping to drive the windy conditions across the area. A weakened upper trough may help to bring a stray shower or two late tonight/early Wednesday to mainly the eastern zones.
1109 AM MDT Tue Sep 28 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper low over north central NM/south central CO at 17Z to continue lifting to the ne through 29/09Z with a trough digging toward the Four Corners region thereafter. Lee trough to result in gusty swly winds over ne NM through 29/01Z. A couple showers and storms are still possible with slightly warmer temperatures.
Models keep most of the area dry during the day on Wednesday so have scaled back PoPs accordingly, with the highest rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area. By Wednesday night, the next upper level low will be deepening/developing near the Four Corners region.
253 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Dry conditions expected through tonight and tomorrow with strong ridging both at the surface and aloft. Areas approximately southwest of I-74 will remain in the low 60s with areas to the northeast falling into the low 50s. This is a result of the influence of the northwesterly flow associated with the strong low pressure across the Eastern United States. Northwesterly flow across the far northeastern counties will advect cooler air aloft which should allow for a slightly more dense diurnal cu field during the afternoon hours, but otherwise mostly clear skies expected with light and variable winds under the influence of the ridge. Highs should again climb into the upper 80s across the west with low 80s across the east where the ridge has less influence.
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Regional radar and satellite imagery shows midlevel clouds and some sprinkles moving northward out of western Kansas this morning associated with an upper low centered over NM/CO. This cloud cover will likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. On Wednesday, we will see more of the energy from this wave move into the area as another broad trough pushes across the western CONUS. By Wednesday evening, a cold front will push into the Sandhills, providing a focus for scattered to widespread convection.
At 3 PM, upper level ridging remained in control of our local weather. Regional temperatures were in the lower 90s. Tonight & Wednesday: A trough over the Pacific Northwest should shift east and absorb a closed low currently over Colorado.
Upper ridge will build over the area which will continue the dry pattern with warming temperatures.
1050 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Summary: Continued dry with above normal temperatures before rain chances return late week and linger through the weekend with temperatures trending cooler. High pressure was in place across the Great Lakes this morning. An area of fog and low ceilings developed over the Twin Ports and up the North Shore with winds off the lake, but winds have slowly been becoming more southerly as the ridge axis shifts to the east.
Fairly quiet weather expected through Wednesday across the western Great Lakes and northwest Ohio River Valley thanks to a dropping cold front. Building omega blocking pattern strengthens on Wednesday as temperatures warm slightly while holding in the lower 70s across the far northeast to mid-80s across the far southwest. Quiet weather persists late into the week before the blocking pattern weakens and gives way.
1117 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A weak cold front across the Great Lakes will drop south through the Ohio Valley through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Cold front currently right near I70 and progressing south, with a fairly narrow band of stratus behind the front. Behind the front, clouds will decrease and high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and relatively low humidities will allow the low temperature tonight to drop into the 50s, and also provide high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.
1202 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to central Pennsylvania through this evening. The main pcpn driver will now be the primary sfc cold front pushing south-southeast from the I-80 corridor. Cloud trends as well as speed of the front will be monitored with categorical MRGL/SLGT risk outlooks covering much of the lower Susquehanna Valley. Conditions should dry out from northwest to southeast by Tuesday evening behind the cold front. Drier and cooler air shifts southward over the rest of central PA by late tonight, and expect lows more typical of late September by Wednesday morning, ranging from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s southeast. Upper-level low pressure will drop southward to a position over New England on Wednesday, while a cold front pushes well south of Pennsylvania.
A cold front over central Nevada will move south into the region this afternoon bringing breezy to windy conditions.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): High pressure remains parked across the Southeast US and eastern Gulf of Mexico while a 500mb trough and a mid level disturbance swings into Texas from the west through Wednesday. The PGF continues breezy southeasterly winds, especially during the afternoon along the lower Texas coast.
222 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 (Issued 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will keep pleasant conditions over Wisconsin for the next few days. Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat of today, but several degrees warmer with areas in southwest and south central Wisconsin in the low to mid 80s.
Still expect temps to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the Bluegrass this afternoon with lower 80s out across the I- 65 corridor. Temperatures this evening should fall steadily in the upper 60s and should be in the lower 60s by midnight. With the aid of a little more southerly flow, temperatures should be a bit warmer than what we saw on Tuesday. Highs should top out in the lower 80s across the Bluegrass with highs of 83-87 in the I-65 corridor and to the west.
As mentioned above, this coming together of global/North American model solutions is happening because more low level moisture is expected to work under upper level ridging influences initially and as southwesterly upper level flow begins to develop after upper level ridging influences shift eastward.
A highly amplified upper trough axis just west of the Mississippi River will shift eastward, with the axis residing from the northwest Gulf up across the western Great Lakes and into southern Canada by the end of the near term.
A high amplitude upper ridge will continue to dominate aloft, while a weak backdoor cold front will remain draped across northern sections of the region. Min temperatures will be a tad warmer than last night and above normal for late September.
Not expecting a drastic change from the last few nights, but slightly warmer as dew points have crept up in the last couple of days. Look for overnight lows in the low 60s and a few upper 50s on the Plateau under clear skies. A VERY brief shower could creep into our southwest counties during the afternoon, otherwise, look for dry conditions for almost everyone tomorrow with temperatures a tick warmer, too.
Stumpf (Issued 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will keep pleasant conditions over Wisconsin for the next few days. Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat of today, but several degrees warmer with areas in southwest and south central Wisconsin in the low to mid 80s.
733 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Building high pressure will return dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week. Skies will continue to clear from north to south this evening as the cold front finally exits to the south. Our area will be in a northwest flow regime aloft, placed between slow- moving upper level low pressure over the northeast CONUS/Canadian Maritimes, and a ridge building from the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley and into Canada. While the upper low will continue to meander over far eastern Canada into the weekend, the ridge to our west will slowly break down and flatten.
Dry high pressure over the region will keep mostly clear skies overnight.
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through late week before a frontal system brings widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures by the weekend. Persistence isn't a bad forecast for Wednesday as a similar air mass will be in place beneath a pronounced upper-level ridge. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 60s as clouds begin to increase.
Weak high pressure centered NE of FL will maintain a light E/NE flow across central FL tomorrow.
948 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will push south of Pennsylvania tonight. Surface cold front lies right along the length of the Mason- Dixon line at 01Z. Upper-level low pressure will drop southward to a position over New England on Wednesday, while a cold front pushes well south of Pennsylvania. High temps in the low to mid 60s across the mtns and upper 60s to around 70F in the Susq Valley will be a few deg F shy of normal. Aside from some variable amounts of stratocu clouds across the Ncent Mtns of PA, skies should be mostly clear with light winds and min temps ranging from the low 40s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere.
916 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will push south of Pennsylvania tonight. Surface cold front lies right along the length of the Mason- Dixon line at 01Z. Upper-level low pressure will drop southward to a position over New England on Wednesday, while a cold front pushes well south of Pennsylvania. High temps in the low to mid 60s across the mtns and upper 60s to around 70F in the Susq Valley will be a few deg F shy of normal. Aside from some variable amounts of stratocu clouds across the Ncent Mtns of PA, skies should be mostly clear with light winds and min temps ranging from the low 40s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere.
Localized street flooding would be the main hazard, but will need to keep an eye on the areas that saw the higher totals earlier today since rain will runoff much faster there.
These areas are cooling quickly and are in the lower 60s. Dry conditions expected through tonight and tomorrow with strong ridging both at the surface and aloft. Areas approximately southwest of I-74 will remain in the low 60s with areas to the northeast falling into the low 50s. This is a result of the influence of the northwesterly flow associated with the strong low pressure across the Eastern United States. Northwesterly flow across the far northeastern counties will advect cooler air aloft which should allow for a slightly more dense diurnal cu field during the afternoon hours, but otherwise mostly clear skies expected with light and variable winds under the influence of the ridge. Highs should again climb into the upper 80s across the west with low 80s across the east where the ridge has less influence.
904 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through late week before a frontal system brings widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures by the weekend. High pressure and synoptic subsidence will help to provide clear skies with light winds overnight. Persistence isn't a bad forecast for Wednesday as a similar air mass will be in place beneath a pronounced upper-level ridge. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 60s as clouds begin to increase.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 85 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 83 61 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 84 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 82 55 83 53 / 10 10 0 0 0.
A seasonably mild day has taken shape across the TN Valley, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. A fairly amplified ridge remains to our west, keeping northwesterly flow aloft. Temps will bottom out in the lower 60s, and with dewpoint depressions in the 0-2 degree range, patchy fog is possible during the predawn hours. There are some slight discrepancies among the short range models as to how far east this ridge moves on Wednesday. Latest guidance suggests that the axis of the ridge will bisect the forecast area, with southwesterly flow over our western zones and northwest flow over our eastern zones.
Dry conditions expected through tonight and tomorrow with strong ridging both at the surface and aloft. Areas approximately southwest of I-74 will remain in the low 60s with areas to the northeast falling into the low 50s. This is a result of the influence of the northwesterly flow associated with the strong low pressure across the Eastern United States. Northwesterly flow across the far northeastern counties will advect cooler air aloft which should allow for a slightly more dense diurnal cu field during the afternoon hours, but otherwise mostly clear skies expected with light and variable winds under the influence of the ridge. Highs should again climb into the upper 80s across the west with low 80s across the east where the ridge has less influence.
401 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 The main forecast challenges through midweek revolve around a strong cold front passage. Meanwhile, the warm front has pushed throughly nearly all of Nebraska, resulting in another day of near record heat. Thinking the winds will stay somewhat gusty tonight as a 40kt LLJ develops along the High Plains and the surface pressure gradient is slow to relax.
This will continue to be forecast in many locations, with low temperatures in the lower 60s. A few spots may dip into the upper 50s atop the highest elevations of Lookout Mtn. There are some slight discrepancies among the short range models as to how far east this ridge moves on Wednesday. Latest guidance suggests that the axis of the ridge will bisect the forecast area, with southwesterly flow over our western zones and northwest flow over our eastern zones.
928 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will progress through the area later this evening. High pressure will build overhead during the middle to latter portions of the week.
547 PM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Updated air quality section Low pressure trough passing through the region is allowing for cool and breezy conditions across the forecast area today. High pressure will build after today, leading to a warming trend through this weekend. Much cooler afternoon highs are occuring across the forecast area after a cold front passed through the region this morning. Ridging begins to build over the area tomorrow afternoon, which will aid in temperatures rebounding back a couple degrees.
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure sitting over the southeastern states is part of a larger blocking pattern across the CONUS, with ridging stretching from the southeast to the great lakes, and lows over New England and the midwest states.
209 PM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Breezy northerly winds and colder overnight temperatures follow a cold front moving through Nevada today.
Cool and breezy conditions look to continue for the afternoon and evening hours, with temperatures expected to be below freezing for the overnight. Look for drier and warmer conditions to build back in over the rest of the week and weekend as high pressure once again returns to the Silver State. Model agreement as well as recent satellite imagery continues to see the exit of the cold front and its associated upper-level trough. Meanwhile to the north in eastern Elko county, post frontal winds continue to bring breezy conditions across the region with occasional strong gusts seen at the higher elevations. By Wednesday afternoon, conditions will look to calm and dry out as models see high pressure make its return for the mid-week. Temperatures will look to be their coldest for the week tonight with many valley locations dropping below freezing.
653 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Building high pressure will return dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week. Skies will continue to clear from north to south this evening as the cold front finally exits to the south. Our area will be in a northwest flow regime aloft, placed between slow- moving upper level low pressure over the northeast CONUS/Canadian Maritimes, and a ridge building from the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley and into Canada. While the upper low will continue to meander over far eastern Canada into the weekend, the ridge to our west will slowly break down and flatten.
20Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low starting to become absorbed into the main trough, which currently is advancing toward the Intermountain West. This may keep highs a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, but still very warm in the low 90s.
505 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Another quiet night and day as ridge gradually passes. Flow on back side of ridge should keep winds up a bit tonight but the usual valleys, especially in Wisconsin, will see decoupling and hence, the risk for patchy valley fog once again. Tomorrow looks like one of the warmer days of this stretch with +2. Highly amplified flow is forecast to break down later in the week as upper trough over central Rockies gradually shifts to the northeast.
557 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Another seasonably warm day across the region as breezy south/southeasterly winds work to mix down warmer low/mid level temperatures. A fair amount of the daytime hours may end up being relatively quiet as deep troughing to our west slowly progresses eastward. Better vort lobe begins to lift northeastward and interact with advancing cold front across areas west of the James River by late afternoon and should result in scattered showers and storms. The main vorticity center to our west is slow to lift north as the overall trough begins to contract.
Temperatures turn cooler overnight, with patchy fog and areas of frost. It will also be quite a bit cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s across the plains to the mid 20s in some of the valleys in the southwest. A Pacific cold front has advanced across much of the forecast area, resulting in cooler temperatures and an increase in west-northwest winds. The upper trough lifts out of the area Wednesday morning with drier westerly flow following across the region.