Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures across the higher terrain will decrease to the middle teens to near 20 degrees under mostly clear skies overnight. 2) Temperatures will warm on Thursday before a backdoor cold front will drop temperatures slightly on Friday before. Outside of the winds, the overall weather looks quiet as a large upper level ridge builds across much of the Interior West. A weak backdoor cold front is progged to push SW across the NE Panhandle.
Much more tranquil weather is ahead for the Panhandles today and tomorrow as northwesterly flow sets up in the wake of a departing upper trough, currently located just to our east.
1210 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Light rain and snow with gusty winds are possible Friday with a trough along the international border. Any clearing will be short lived as a trough approaches the region by early Friday morning, bringing another chance of a rain and snow mix. Bumped gusts up a bit area wide with the highest values out across western Minnesota through Friday evening. Precip comes to an end by Friday evening, leaving cooler and drier conditions in place through the weekend.
With a dry air mass in place, this will allow for a decent temperature drop during the evening hours, despite the expected increase in mid to high level clouds from an upper level trough.
1036 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 The vertically stacked low pressure system currently sitting over the Mid-Mississippi Valley is slowly moving east. Below freezing air at 850 mb will be advected into the area tonight, making for a seasonably cool night. Cooler air paired with thick cloud cover will stunt highs Thursday, leaving them in the 40s areawide. Behind the front, cooler air will sweep down into the Missouri and Illinois.
/Today through Friday/ Surface analysis from this morning is showing a cold front located around the I-30 corridor that will continue to push through the area tonight. A few areas across our far northern zones of southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas could see some isolated temperatures fall below freezing before sunrise. Temperatures will remain on the pleasant side for today, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to mid 60s across the region. By Friday, temperatures will return to more seasonable normals with afternoon highs returning to the lower to mid 70s as ridging begins to build into the region from the west.
Ridging aloft will continue to build into the region this evening and overnight, resulting in calm and cool conditions. Tomorrow, a northeast orientated ridge is going to settle over west central portions of North Dakota. A short wave trough over Saskatchewan will dig into the northern plains by the evening hours Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to warm up into the 50s to 60s due to compressional warming from an advancing cold front. Friday, temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler statewide.
The overnight inversion mixes out by 16Z with some gustiness returning through the day on Thursday with gusts in the low 30 mph range. The ridge aloft moves in from the west as it flattens on Thursday with highs warming into the 60s ahead of the next weak cold front that sweeps through the area Thursday night. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s as high pressure moves in at the surface and northwest flow remains aloft. This weekend, the High Plains will be under northwest flow aloft as a ridge moves over the Western CONUS.
351 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The short term models are in good agreement, lifting the upper level low to our west through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes area by tonight. The upper level trough will slowly move through the area through the short term period. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight with cooler air across the area tomorrow. Mostly clear skies will prevail across much of the area today with low POPs and showers expected across east central Georgia as the cold front exits the area.
Today Through Friday Night Moisture continues to wrap around an upper level low over NRN AR into SRN MO. there may still be some patchy areas that get closer to freezing to see a light wintry mix. This wintry mix will be limited to the higher terrain of the Ozarks this morning. Little if any impacts are expected given the light precip and temps remaining above freezing. another upper wave will rotate around the upper low. A weak cold front will drop south into the state Fri night.
Mainly dry weather is then expected most of the day as weak sfc ridging builds in behind the front. An upper trough, rotating around an upper low across the Midwest-Canada, is progged to approach the Upper Ohio Valley region toward evening. Isolated showers are possible through this evening as the upper trough mentioned above crosses the region.
A cold front will move southeast across the TAF sites this morning and afternoon, shifting winds to WNW and brining thunderstorm potential. A cold front will move southeast into region and stall Tonight. This will continue to provide shower and thunderstorms chances, but the thunderstorms will likely be weaker as cooler and more stable air will moves in through the day. Temperatures on Thursday will fall through the day, with the high for the day in most locations occuring in the morning, with readings generally falling about 5 degrees from sunrise to sunset.
The continued gusty northwest winds from this afternoon can largely be associated with winds in the mid levels mixing down from the back side of the upper trough/low. Winds will generally be light overnight tonight and will remain out of the northwest thanks to continued surface ridging. With clear skies and lighter winds, some places may see good radiational cooling conditions with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s. Winds tomorrow will once again pick up out of the northwest during the late morning/early afternoon hours but with increasing heights aloft as the upper trough begins to move east, sunny skies, and some downsloping components to the winds, high temperatures will rise back towards normal into the low to mid 70s.
Clouds are going to hang tough for several more hours, though, so while temperatures will remain mild, the remaining breeze will make it feel much cooler this evening.
Upper level southwest flow will transition to westerly on Thursday as an upper level trough continues to slowly progress eastward through the period. High clouds will continue to affect eastern portions of the area on the east side of the upper trough through Thursday. As the upper trough pivots east Thursday night into Friday, upper level northwest flow aloft will take hold over the southeast. This will result in building high pressure at the surface and dry conditions. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s inland to upper 40s and low 50s near the coast.
232 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper level low pressure system remains parked over the middle part of the United States this morning. Expect highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
A broad upper-level low pressure system is still slowly moving east across the CONUS, and several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low as it ambles eastward.
With extremely dry conditions and cured fuels any fires that start will have the potential to spread quickly As the upper level trough exits the state, northwesterly flow will usher in dry weather through the short term period. Southerly winds will bring in warmer air Friday leading to highs in the mid 80s along the coast and Victoria Crossroads and in the low to mid 90s inland.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The mid-level trough works off the lower Texas coast this afternoon, with high pressure continuing to build through Friday. At the surface, a wind shift or weak frontal boundary arrives this afternoon as the 500mb trough axis passes, turning winds out of the northwest. Highs today reach the low to mid 80s, with another cool night into the 40s and low 50s tonight.
This is as strong low pressure pressure system and associated cold front approach the area today. Then, as upper level support and cold front become a bit more aligned, we should see some more storms development. The aforementioned upper level trough finally moves out of the area on Friday pushing a rather cool and dry airmass, while high pressure ridge builds.
Lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected for much of the lowlands. However, there are some localized areas (low valleys and the higher hills) that could see temperatures closer to freezing with the potential for some frost. A cold front is moving across the area this afternoon with showers into this evening. Dry weather Thursday into Friday as ridging builds into the area.
/issued 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ Overall much more benign with cool and dry weather is in store for the area through the short term as the upper level trough currently in the middle of the US continues to move towards the east coast.
Expect drier conditions today and slightly warmer with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area, warmest across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Gusts around 50 mph are expected along and east of the Interstate 25 corridor, mainly along the Cheyenne Ridge and south of the North Platte River Valley.
1205 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 High pressure has taken the controls for the near future across western Colorado and eastern Utah. With mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop to freezing in low valleys tonight and elevated valleys will see 15 to 20 degrees. As high pressure builds in, models are nudging up temperatures run to run. This is when the EPac Ridge is forced across the Intermountain West to the lee of the Rockies.
Main mid level low was over southern WI last evening, but water vapor imagery loop early this morning showed a couple of pieces in a trough that extended from Upper MI down to AR.
428 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front will gradually push across the lower Mid-Atlantic today, bringing drier air into the region.
350 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region today into Friday. This will lead to a chance of showers at times, along with cooler temperatures. An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly east today as an embedded short wave/low lifts northeast into the upper Ohio Valley. Any lingering pcpn should taper off heading into this evening as the upper level trough continues to shift east. A secondary upper level low will drop down across the western Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
A weak cold front associated with the trough will move over areas east of the Divide late this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows tonight and high temperatures Friday will be a few degrees cooler across the north and Natrona County, as a result.
The upper level trough will continue to push eastward tonight and into tomorrow morning. As the feature moves out of the region, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area with drier air moving into South Texas.
As temperatures drop below freezing later in the evening, the threat of freezing rain/drizzle will return to areas northwest of the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas. There may be a need to issue another Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain/drizzle west of the Fox Valley tonight, but confidence is not high enough at this time. As low pressure gradually drifts northeast of the region on Thursday, any lingering light mixed precipitation will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast during the day.
A large upper low is situated over MO and stretches from the Canadian to Mexican borders. Upper low will continue to push through the area through Thursday. Clouds will build back in on Thursday as the center of the upper low tracks through. Highs will range from the lower 50s in NE AR to the mid 60s in parts of NE MS. Sunshine will bring moderating temps to end the week with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
329 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level trough/low over the Upper Great Lakes Region into the Southern Plains states. Several vertices are rotating around the upper level trough/low and one vertices is producing light rain or snow across parts of western Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa per latest KARX radar. Upper level trough/low slowly lifts/weakens into the Great Lakes Region today. As upper level trough/low lifts northeast of forecast area. weak upper level ridge builds into central Minnesota. Subsidence underneath upper level ridge will allow light precipitation to diminish this morning across the forecast area.
High pressure at the surface will begin to move into the region from the southwest and subsidence from this feature should help create mostly clear conditions late tonight into Thursday morning. Lows tonight will run considerably cooler than last night thanks to the cooler, drier air mass that is filtering into the region. Elsewhere, lows in the lower 40s will be common. The moisture layer atop the low level steep lapse rates appears to be thin, so scattered to broken clouds would be expected at this point.
251 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The upper level low that brought rain to our region the last few days will finally progress eastward today leaving us in northwesterly flow and drier air.
155 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Jet stream energy riding over a trough of low pressure at the surface was producing a broken line of heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over far Western PA this evening. The complex storm system over the midwest will will affect our weather over the next couple of days, bringing a few more showers along and just ahead of its southward trailing cold front later Thursday and Thursday night.
Associated complex upper low centered over northern Illinois will be slower to eject NE as multiple weak impulses rotate around it and through Indiana. By Friday, ridging builds across the western CONUS and a NW flow pattern sets up across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Little forcing for shower activity during the first half of the day as the main energy associated with the upper low moves off into Canada. Expect highs to struggle to reach the 50 degree mark once again Friday as deep troughing remains over the region allowing the colder airmass to remain in place.
1253 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Summary: Light snow, possibly mixed with drizzle or freezing drizzle, will taper off tonight.
High pressure will build over the region today through the upcoming weekend.
Cooler today and tonight after cold fronts passage but dry conditions. Weak high pressure was building over the area. An upper level low has developed over Arkansas. This upper low moves northeast into the Ohio Valley today and then into the eastern Great Lakes tonight.
These will allow for periods of isolated to scattered showers from time to time, but generally the short will be fairly quiet and cooler through a majority of the period. As far as temperatures through the short, highs will be more in line with seasonable norms today, ranging from the mid and upper 50s in the Bluegrass to the low 60s across the far east. Cooler air will continue to filter in overnight Thursday and into Friday, leading to highs in the upper 40s and low 50s to end the work week.
Taking a look at the surface weather features, the main low is over MO, with a trough extending north across MN to a weaker secondary low over northeastern Manitoba. An elongated area of high pressure remains to our west, stretching from northern CO through WY and MT into southern Saskatchewan. Light precipitation, mainly in the form of rain may transition to freezing rain this evening over our far southeastern counties. The next feature of interest will be the warm front stretched over western SD around 15Z Thursday, extending to the low over southern Saskatchewan/northern Manitoba. A cold front will be quick to follow, with increasing winds out of the northwest. The passage of the warm and eventual cold front will bring increasing winds to north central SD, with increasing fire weather concerns to mainly north central SD Thursday.
Although a weak cold front is expected to move through SE Texas on Thursday, it will be more of a wind shift event, given that there will be very dry air from surface to mid levels and very little CAPE as it moves through the local area.
1032 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 As upper trough/thermal trough passes over north-central Oklahoma this evening and overnight, light precipitation will be possible. (This evening through Thursday) An upper level trough with an associated upper-level cyclone is currently Oklahoma/western north Texas, and is gradually exiting the region to the east. In a trough axis to the west, scattered altocumulus has developed across the Texas panhandle and through western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Several upper short wave trofs will rotate across the Central Gulf Coast states today through Friday. The trofs will produce some sct-bkn mid level clouds across Alabama, with daytime temperatures slightly below normal.
219 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front will move through eastern Montana early this morning. Winds will quickly diminish this evening as high pressure moves into the area with mostly clear skies.
The overnight inversion mixes out by 16Z with some gustiness returning through the day on Thursday with gusts in the low 30 mph range. The ridge aloft moves in from the west as it flattens on Thursday with highs warming into the 60s ahead of the next weak cold front that sweeps through the area Thursday night. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s as high pressure moves in at the surface and northwest flow remains aloft.
Water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts a large upper level cut-off low centered over the upper Midwest, with several embedded vorticity maxima rotating through the flow. As such, temperatures today will not be any warmer than yesterday, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Later tonight, winds will relax once again and sky cover will decrease as the upper level low and attendant surface cyclone continue to move away. Temperatures will rebound on Thursday as the departing upper low and a building upper level ridge over the western CONUS maintain clear skies over the central plains, and afternoon highs in the low to upper 60s are expected.
Satellite imagery shows a few high clouds over NorCal breaking through the weakened upper ridge.
Northerly flow continues as a closed low to our east moves to the northeast, out of the area. An amplified ridge expends from Western Montana to the Dakotas. This will usher in a weak cold front and some stronger winds.
High pressure builds throughout the remainder of the week, leading to a significant warmup.
1009 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region today into Friday. This will lead to a chance of showers at times, along with cooler temperatures. An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly east today as an embedded short wave/low lifts northeast into the upper Ohio Valley. Any lingering pcpn should taper off heading into this evening as the upper level trough continues to shift east. A secondary upper level low will drop down across the western Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
Drier conditions take hold across the region Thursday and much of Friday with a weak ridge building over the Pacific Northwest.
639 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The upper level low that brought rain to our region the last few days will finally progress eastward today leaving us in northwesterly flow and drier air.
- Sun returns Friday with warmer temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds. However, a fast moving mid level low and accompanying trough will descend out of Canada and into the Great Lakes by Friday evening, sending a cold front through the region and returning the region to northwesterly flow aloft.
740 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front will gradually push across the lower Mid-Atlantic today, bringing drier air into the region.
Light snow, possibly mixed with drizzle/freezing drizzle will slowly end this morning.
344 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The strong northerly flow will begin to weaken some today as the flow turns a bit more northwesterly under building ridge of high pressure and under a weakly subsident environment. The airmass will be rather dry except for some cirrus moving over the topside of the ridge. There is also some trapped low level moisture over the higher mountains and across Grand and Summit counties for mainly morning. Temperatures will be warmer today as expect 700mb temps to rise to around +2c, given upstream warming seen at RIW/BOI. For tonight, a weak trof flattens the ridge as it tracks across the northern high plains tonight. This trof will have an associated weak cold front which brushes the northeast plains of Colorado later tonight.
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region today into Friday. This will lead to a chance of showers at times, along with cooler temperatures. An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly east today as an embedded short wave/low lifts northeast into the upper Ohio Valley. Any lingering pcpn should taper off heading into this evening as the upper level trough continues to shift east. A secondary upper level low will drop down across the western Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
839 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Going forecast was in good shape, just refreshed some things as cold front is moving through. TFJ A cold front will move through eastern Montana early this morning. Winds will quickly diminish this evening as high pressure moves into the area with mostly clear skies.
514 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A ridge of high pressure is building across the western US leaving our area under west to northwest flow. A trough tracking over the Canadian border will suppress the ridge while the associated jet looks to pass overhead. The winds will not be as windy as previous days, but the higher terrain could experience some gusts especially this afternoon. This westerly flow will keep the warm advection going which means the highs and lows gradually increase each day. Tomorrow the ridge will extend all the way into western Canada, so the flow will not change much and conditions will be similar to today only warmer.
Have been seeing a few showers on radar this morning as the upper level positive-tilt trough axis swings across, so in line with the latest HRRR and CONSShort have added a 20 percent pop to our western half through the afternoon.
702 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level trough/low over the Upper Great Lakes Region into the Southern Plains states. Several vertices are rotating around the upper level trough/low and one vertices is producing light rain or snow across parts of western Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa per latest KARX radar. Upper level trough/low slowly lifts/weakens into the Great Lakes Region today. As upper level trough/low lifts northeast of forecast area. weak upper level ridge builds into central Minnesota. Subsidence underneath upper level ridge will allow light precipitation to diminish this morning across the forecast area.
Morning sunshine will fade today due to moist advection increasing just east of the upper closed low that will lift northeastward from the southern Ohio River Valley. A weak front is expected to pass overnight as this low exits to the northeast, starting the trend toward cooler temperature. Meager column moisture and poor positioning with respect to upper support should maintain generally dry weather, though an isolated shower may develop over the higher terrain and eastern OH.