Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CLOSED LOW AFFECTING WEST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT WITHIN THAT CONSENSUS IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS THE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBSEQUENT SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW BEING PROGGED TO SLOW AND SHIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY BROUGHT CHANGES IN THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AS THE JETMAX PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
212 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN ALONG THE IL SHORE SO NOW HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE SHORELINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL FINALLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS POSSIBLE. A CIRCULATION AROUND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR ALTITUDE (~5500 FT AGL) CLOUDS PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
311 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 REMNANTS OF A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM IOWA INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE LOCATIONS WILL SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS MIGHT BE ABLE TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
231 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
611 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
300 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WAS HELPING TO ROTATE A FEW CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT.
235 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE AREA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS IS GOING TO BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
The center of high pressure shifts off to the east Friday which allows for the return of southerly surface winds and warmer temperatures to the CWA.
End result will be mostly clear and cool conditions tonight, with lows dropping into the lower to middle 40s. The Omega-block pattern across the lower 48 will shift slightly eastward on Friday. That will lead to a warm and sunny day as the surface and upper ridges shift east closer to Illinois. There could even be some lower 70s along the Indiana border, where cooler air will linger near the upper low. The blocking pattern will break down this weekend, as the eastern trough is lifted toward a lobe of Canadian low pressure advancing into the Great Lakes.
323 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD DECREASE TO THE LOWER 20S BY MID AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
300 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS PUSHED THE MERCURY ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
403 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN AND PROGRESS EAST. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON.
206 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW-SCT CLOUDS STREAMING OVER TOP THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE. /ISSUED 926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SE TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. /ISSUED 433 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SE TX JUST A BIT LONGER. THE ELEVATED RIDGING OVER THE REGION (THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO ROBUST LOWS ON EACH U. COAST) IS STILL PROGGED TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WORK DOWN INTO THE MID STATE THANKS TO COLD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE KEEPING CLOUDS ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHILE STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH A -26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM NEAR THE CENTER. ONCE SUN GOES DOWN EXPECT TO SEE STRATOCU TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER MY CWA AS UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER EAST.
340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARM DAYS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
341 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. OUR RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SOUTH FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BETTER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SEPARATE DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE SOCAL COAST NEAR 34N/134W IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA. THE WRF AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
258 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016 INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL YIELD INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
153 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS AN EAST-WEST TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS STILL STREAMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU. SO LOOK FOR ONE MORE ABNORMALLY COOL NIGHT BEFORE THE SUN BREAKS OUT TOMORROW AND BRINGS US WARMER TEMPERATURES.
310 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND WITH ONLY FLAT CU ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW. MAIN WX CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. AS WESTERN TROUGH SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
319 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Friday looks much nicer area wide as the deep upper low that created considerable clouds east of the Ms River today shifts east to the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a ridge to build in from the west.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RATHER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AROUND 5000 FEET. DUE TO THIS LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AFTN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA ACROSS MONTANA AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SUNNY SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HAS HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH IS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CA/NV. FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE PAINTED.
200 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OF AROUND 70 DEGREES.
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning over eastern Kentucky. Thanks to the increasing amounts of sunshine, high temperatures will be warmer than in recent days, with readings topping out in the lower to middle 60s. A spoke of energy wrapping around the back side of the upper low will push clouds back into portions of east-central and southeast Illinois today, but do not expect rainfall with this feature locally. The upper-level cold pool associated with system will pull away as the upper low continues to dig. Upper ridge axis is slowly shifting eastward this morning, as our nearby upper low drops across southeast Indiana. These features will be sliding eastward late this week, with the ridge being flattened by an upper wave/low that will be diving southeast toward Lake Superior.
140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
501 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AIDED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES INLAND. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO EASTERLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
With a deep trough on the east coast and 850mb temperatures around 2-3 standard deviations below normal, we should have a night of cooler than normal low temperatures. Lows should be in the upper 40s in many locations, around 50 in some of the typically warmer inland locations, and in the mid- 50s inside the city of Tallahassee as well as along the coast.
350 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific and another over the eastern U. Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid 80s in central Kansas.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO MID DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMBINE WITH DEEPENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT BROUGHT BY THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW.
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE CONUS TODAY. WITH CLOSED LOWS SPINNING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND ONTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. IT WILL ALSO SQUASH RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO A CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEGINNING OF RIDGE BREAKDOWN ENSUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON BAY LOW DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
Friday looks much nicer area wide as the deep upper low that created considerable clouds east of the Ms River today shifts east to the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a ridge to build in from the west.
SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD S INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THUS GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL IT DOES. UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST AS THE OVERALL TROUGH SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NW. AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND SOUTH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND FORECAST AS UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LOW HEIGHTS AND DRY NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
318 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS PRODUCED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATION IN THE 80S. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
304 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.
TROF PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS AT 15-25G30-40MPH UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE WILL SPILL ACROSS SE GA WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EVEN SOME HI- RES MODELS ARE TRYING TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO GET ANY MEASURABLE PCPN SO WILL KEEP JUST 5-10% POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST FLOW IN-BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS.
414 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME TEMPS FALLING OVERNIGHT SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 40S IN THE E.
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Area will be under nly flow within the highly amplified flow today. The upper low will continue to sink swd today with a vort max spreading clouds across the ern portions of the CWA today. However, have generally trended slightly warmer as less cloud cover is expected today.
234 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 STG DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FAIRLY STATIC PATTERN ALSO AT THE SFC WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
MEDIUM TO HIGH 500 MILLIBAR RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS WI. 925 TEMPS STILL PROGGD TO REACH THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO GO ONSHORE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SO SOME COOLER READINGS THERE.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ATOP SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATION INFLUENCE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DEEP CLOSED LOWS CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE.
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING US INCREASING WINDS TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND LESSER WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
220 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH STRONG WARMING INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE CWA UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. A BIT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM.
This is courtesy of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas. Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east coast pulling away the low clouds over the region. Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat morning.
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
245 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
330 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. BUT AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST.
650 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure in firm control tonight, then advancing cold front starts to impact the weather. However, impacts first 24 hours will be increasing southerly winds and warmer temps.