Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, an H5 ridge will continue over the Southeast, and underlying high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states and extending south to the Northeast Gulf will influence the short term even as it fades slowly to the east and north. The lower pressure will be due partly to mid level troughing farther upstream and perhaps also due to thermal low deepening. Overall, slightly warmer than normal temperatures will continue locally, with Wednesday afternoon mid- Valley heat index readings from 103 to 108 degrees or so.
Models have some difference in timing of warm front and associated precip with it Wednesday. Models differs slightly with warm front arrival and associated precip from late morning to later afternoon.
As of 15 UTC, the surface cold front was located from the Turtle Mountains through Lake Oahe and will continue to propagate east through the day. A breezy and dry day in the dry slot of the upper low across Saskatchewan remains on track. A cold front continues to push into central North Dakota this morning. The cold front is expected to shift into the southern James River Valley 18z-21z today. Quite the density gradient with dewpoints in the west mostly in the 30s, while along and east of the cold front dewpoints are in the upper 60s. Breezy and cooler conditions expected behind the cold front today with highs in the upper 70s west to mid 80s in the James River Valley.
High Pressure will extend across the region through the week. Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north into the area today. Lows a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the lower to mid 60s. Mid-level ridging will strengthen, centered over the southern mid- Atlantic states (NC/VA) mid to late week.
129 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure will slide east across the region today, then reside along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Wednesday.
105 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Low pressure exits the Canadian Rockies today.
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Upr lvl wind analysis shows a troffing pattern over the wrn CONUS with a 60-70KT H30-H20 jet streak extending from the Desert SW to the Midwest. The lifting nature of this fairly weak jet pattern will not be able to dislodge a deep H100-H50 anticyclone currently dominating the WX pattern acrs the SE CONUS/Nrn GOMex. the anticyclone will remain the dominant WX feature for central FL through the latter half of the work week. Position of the anticyclone will maintain an E/NE flow thru the H100- H70 lyr.
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will shift offshore tomorrow.
1228 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Weak high pressure aloft off the West Coast will bring slow warming through Wednesday.
Also, a mid-level ridge over the Southeast U. With the increased subsidence from the ridge, the lack of any large scale ascent, and no significant surface boundaries, rain chances for today look quite low for most of the area.
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure over the mid Atlantic shifts further east into midweek allowing a return of more humid weather by the 2nd half of the week.
130 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 An upper level low pressure center currently located over north central Arizona is generating showers and thunderstorms in the four corners area. This low and its associated moisture is forecast to move northeast tonight into the Colorado front range. For the afternoon hours the low and its moisture are expected to move slowly east continuing the chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of the area. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s for far eastern Colorado with mid 50s to low 60s east of the border.
202 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Items of interest for the Florida Keys include isolated showers and a few thunderstorms moving westward across the area, a stationary trough over north Florida with an area of high pressure building in the southeastern United States, and the tropics.
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to the region through Wednesday.
A vertically stacked upper low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan, thus Northeast montana remains in a mainly dry northwest flow aloft. Wednesday night high pressure will quickly build in, making for quickly decreasing winds and shower activity wednesday evening.
/issued 337 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Our area will remain under south-southwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper level high over the southeastern CONUS, and an upper level trough progressing slowly east across the southwestern states. With skies becoming partly cloudy this afternoon, temperatures will be a little warmer, and expect highs to be mostly in the 90-92 degree range. trough. Warm and relatively humid conditions are expected for our area with overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s.
A ridge of high pressure is centered across LA with disturbances rounding the western periphery. As seen on visible satellite and sfc obs, a MCV and a warm frontal feature is tracking across MS. High pressure is building along the northern Gulf coast and will keep systems lifting NE from TX into the midwest well to our north. A few showers have formed along a warm front and are moving into NW TN but not expecting any of this activity to make it into the area.
High Pressure will extend across the region through the week. Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north into the area today. Lows a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the lower to mid 60s.
1221 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Strong cold front currently moving through western SD has pushed into south central SD, and on track to be easily through Tripp County by 3pm. Southwest flow is setting up over the northern plains as upper trough pushes into the central states, with low pressure spinning over AB/SK. Strong CAA and pressure rises of 3-5 mb/3hr will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area this morning. Highs today will range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. Cold air will continue to push into the area as trough slowly moves across the region. Highs will range from the mid 60s across the northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD.
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Deep ridging throughout the U. Across Southeast and East Texas, rich moisture remains beneath the mid-level ridge, and some diurnally driven showers and storms have developed this afternoon.
High res models did not pick up on these cells, but they continue to show cells developing along the cold front as it moves into the Red River Valley around 5 to 6 pm. Low pressure in north central ND and cold front will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late aftn.
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Quiet, late summer weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure provides fair and dry conditions to the region.
Upper air data and vapor imagery showed an anticyclone centered along the FL Panhandle coast, with plenty of warm, dry air aloft.
Slightly above normal temperatures across the interior will become more seasonal through the second half of the week as an upper trough slides over the Pacific Northwest. Inland temperatures across northwestern California were slightly warmer than normal today with some of the hotter valleys inland approaching the upper 90s. 500mb heights will climb a few decameters as ridging moves in behind the eastward shifting trough that is currently over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will decrease again late in the work week and even fall below normal values by the weekend as the upper trough dives over the region again.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today as an upper low moves across the region. An upper low near Flagstaff late this morning will continue to move east today. This will not help convection today, but the added forcing from the upper low and unseasonably cool temperatures aloft will partially overcome this. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to move across the area today as an upper level low moves over the region.
Arrival of the ridge axis overnight will open up area skies to cirrus and mid cloud infiltrating from the west. Theta-e ridge fostering tomorrow's convective chances will bring a rise in dewpoints as surface flow veers southwesterly.
Initially good subsidence across our area due to upper ridging centered down along Gulf Coast. I see a very weak short wave that will come out of Arkansas this morning that will be working through the ridge today and across our area so have a small pop basically for western areas of Middle Tennessee. 596 decameter upper ridge seemingly strengthens over southeastern U.
High pressure ridge aloft dominates the forecast through the weekend as any middle to upper level support for convection traverses the Great Lakes region, well north of our area.
A back door weak cold front will also switch the winds around to a more east to northeast direction.
Converted all POPs today to just a VCTS mention as building ridge aloft should limit convective development today despite forecast soundings showing a continuation of above normal moisture. Water vapor imagery shows a flat upper level ridge extending from Texas across the Gulf South. Upper air analysis did show decent height rises at both 50H and 70H across the region which suggests the mid/upper level ridge is strengthening. Expect upper level ridge to strengthen and expand across the forecast area for today into tomorrow. The upper level ridge shifts to the northeast over and will be centered over the Southeast U.
The pressure gradient between the departing low and approaching high pressure to our west has relaxed quite a bit over the past 6 to 8 hours allowing surface winds to decrease across the forecast area. Temperatures as of 3 am have dropped into the low to mid 30s with a scattering of clouds drifting southeast across central through southeast Illinois.
A cold front on track to move through later tonight with winds gradually increasing out of the west and southwest ahead of the boundary. Temperatures are slowly climbing into the upper 40 and low 50s this morning and should generally top out in the low 60s.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a flat upper level ridge through this evening, with a westerly flow aloft.
A cool northerly wind flow will persist through Friday afternoon as a high pressure ridge across the Great Plains shifts east of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, a large upper trough over the eastern conus will shift east over the western Atlantic.
/22/ No change to the current forecast was needed as a cooler and much drier airmass was over our CWA. The pressure gradient around this high was resulting in a gusty northeast wind across the southern half of our CWA. With the northeastern two thirds dropping into the low to mid 30s, areas of frost should develop after midnight and linger until mid morning Friday.
Drier weather conditions will become established along with warmer temperatures as an upper ridge builds into the region.
1210 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 Low pressure over southern Quebec will continue moving east today while high pressure drops south into the Dakotas from central canada. Friday high pressure will build in from the west. High pressure will be building in so the airmass will be drying through the afternoon.
210 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2017 17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad troughing across central and eastern portions of the country with ridge over west coast. At the sfc, high pressure was settling over the area. A few mid clouds may develop along H7 thermal ridge do to persistent WAA, but shallow moisture profiles and stable conditions would keep precip threat essentially zero. dry conditions will prevail as H5 ridge shifts to the east and nears the CWA. With deep westerly flow think leaning on the warmer/drier solutions are in order and pushed deterministic forecast towards that envelope of solutions.
1223 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. It will be dry behind the cold front this afternoon. The models show dry high pressure continuing to build into the forecast area from the west tonight. Some of the guidance has temperatures around freezing but this may be too cold because of mixing associated with the high building into the area. Dry High pressure will be across the region through Friday.
Dry conditions and much warmer temperatures will settle into the area through the coming weekend with high level cirrus clouds passing through the sky on and off. Dry and warm conditions will return as high pressure returns over the West Coast by midweek. Clear skies prevail across the forecast area as a broad ridge overspreads the intermountain West. Surface dewpoints have dropped as low as the upper teens across south-central Arizona and temperatures continue to warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s expected in the lower deserts. High pressure aloft will build over the eastern Pacific and SW Conus with 500mb heights remaining in the 570-576dm range for the weekend.
However, most of the colder/cooler air will remain east and north of Oklahoma.
1226 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 The gusty west wind will slowly subside today as a deep low pressure area over the Saint Lawrence Valley continues to slide into the Canadian Maritimes.
Scattered 6kft clouds stretching from ECP to TLH to VLD will diminish through the afternoon with the low to mid level clouds moving out by 21z. Cold front will continue the trek eastward and be located roughly across Apalachee Bay northeastward across Taylor and Madison counties at dawn and will clear the eastern Big Bend counties in the mid/late morning. Highs will be markedly cooler as compared to the past few days; readings in the mid to upper 60s are expected.
240 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 Wx map shows high pressure building in from TX/OK/AR, keeping a modest pressure gradient along and south of I-10, including the coastal waters. Expecting the coolest night this evening into Friday morning with lows in the lower/mid 40s, with a few upper 30s across Central Louisiana. High pressure to our north will continue sliding east by the afternoon, with northeast winds becoming east.
High pressure will, for the most part, take over for the next couple of days. This little clipper will also drop afternoon highs tomorrow, so it will be a little cooler tomorrow than today.
An upper level ridge over the western states will produce a northwest flow over Colorado through tonight. Highs will be slightly warmer today with mid 40s to lower 50s expected. Lows tonight are expected to be slight warmer due to the warming airmass.
Winds will slowly veer out of the east and southeast Friday through Friday night as the high begins to shift farther east. In the meantime, mid level short wave trough digging east into Baja California and move into north central Mexico by late Friday night.
1036 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Very dry high pressure in place with VFR and terrain dominated winds thru tonight. High pressure aloft to gradually build in from the west through Friday for continued dry and warmer weather.
This system will push a dry cold front through the area on Friday and produce brisk north winds 10 to 15 mph.
311 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 Afternoon relative humidities are in the low to mid 20s with winds in the 10-20mph range across the Red Flag area. Upper level ridge currently over the Pacific Northwest will build into the Plains states into the weekend.
1037 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2017 A large area of high pressure continues to affect the western third of the United States. The ridge axis is just off the west coast which has allowed broad northwesterly flow to set up over much of the Intermountain West. Outside of that area, expect a similar day to yesterday with plenty of sunshine as high temperatures reach a few degrees warmer than yesterday. On Friday, some energy will start breaking down the ridge to our north while a midlevel area of low pressure will skirt the U. Models have consistently kept this low pressure dry so do not expect any precip from this weak area of circulation.
319 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 The region will remain under cyclonic flow from departing low pressure today with gusty west-northwest winds and scattered snow showers or flurries.
For this afternoon, the stronger northwest flow should slowly slide to the east as an area of weak low pressure drops in Missouri. As a result, the low clouds should abate some with time with increasing sunshine where clouds dominant now. Low-level thickness progs and 850mb temps near -6C suggest today's highs will run on the low end of guidance and a few degrees below climo. Reinforcing Canadian high pressure builds in on Friday, and temps will really struggle under the thermal trof.
The clouds will continue to dissipate late this afternoon as temps top out in the mid 40s in the northern Bluegrass to the lower-mid 50s over west parts of south- central KY. However, road temperatures initially will be above freezing so melting is expected, but snow accum of up to an inch could accumulate on grassy areas if a changeover occurs quick enough before ending in an given area. By Friday morning, low temperatures in the upper 20s could result in some freezing/ slick spots of any residual moisture.
300 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area through the short term. and a reinforcing cold front will keep gusty northwest winds over north and central GA. Expecting temperatures at or just below freezing Friday night mainly across the north.
The channeled vort max on the western side of the Eastern Canada/Conus longwave trough will be dropping into the Ohio Valley/Ern KY/WV tonight.
/issued 343 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017/ Cold front has moved through the area causing dew pt temps to fall rapidly while actual temps are cooling but at a slower rate.
1114 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd as high pressure at the sfc continues to settle in over the region.
1121 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 Low sensible weather concerns the next 24 hours with weather highlights in the short term period including: increased northwest winds mid morning to mid afternoon today, highs similar to slightly cooler compared to yesterday, and near normal lows tonight. Broad cyclonic flow is evident in the latest water vapor imagery over the central and eastern US with a broad mid- level trough present over roughly the eastern half of the CONUS. Cooler low-level air aloft moves into the local forecast area this morning wherein 850 hPa temperatures range from -1 to -8 C from southwest NEB to north central NEB. Main focus for this forecast period is the pattern shift as a ridge builds across the area this weekend.
241 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 Current GOES Water Vapor imagery showing a mid-level trough swinging southeast through southern WI. For tonight, high pressure builds across the region providing mostly clear skies. High pressure slides east of the region by Friday afternoon as a warm front pushes north out of the Plains. Increasing warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the warm front and approaching weak mid-level trough will produce a chance of light snow Friday night.
The sfc ridging currently just north of our region will settle into the heart of the region overnight allowing for calm winds. especially across our northern zones where freezing temperatures are likely and patchy frost elsewhere. Ridging quickly moves to our north and east on Friday with winds becoming more southeasterly.
155 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 It is another seasonably cool day across the area today, with afternoon temperatures expected to top out in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area. Temperatures Friday will be similar to today, with highs in the lower 60s for most locations. By Friday evening, zonal flow aloft will transition to the southwest, ahead of an upper trough that will quickly move eastward across northern Mexico.
This high will move across Minnesota tonight then continue east on Friday. The low level flow will remain northwest tonight, not an ideal fetch for lake effect snow. The low level instability will be quite favorable with 850MB temperatures around -22C but there is plenty of dry air in place. As the axis of the high shifts east late tonight into Friday, the wind will become southerly. The low level flow will back through the day to west to southwest from the surface to 925MB over Lake Superior.
High pressure will move east across Indiana late Friday.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over northern MN and was moving away from the area. Upper level ridge over western North America will shift into the High Plains by Fri afternoon. Cool night expected again tonight with the lowest temps expected in the east/northeast zones. Much warmer weather expected for Fri with 925 hpa temps rising significantly.
Upper ridge builds into the area on Friday with dry and warmer weather. Flow aloft turns to the SW Friday Night as the ridge moves to the east.
Early morning forecast was adjusted warmer for the next couple days, which looks good per 12Z BOI raob. First north-Pacific cold front will dissipate before it gets here late Friday.
A narrow band of showers developed from just south of Key West, across the Lower Keys and into the adjacent Gulf waters. A cold front currently stretched across the Florida peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico will continue to push southward overnight, and cross the Keys and surrounding waters early on Friday. The lower profile will steadily clock overnight through Friday, with just enough moisture to possibly see transient but small showers through the local area. The high pressure axis will lose influence through the middle of the week across South Florida as another cold front drops into the Gulf.
135 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 The gusty west wind will slowly subside today as a deep low pressure area over the Saint Lawrence Valley continues to slide into the Canadian Maritimes.
359 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 The region will remain under cyclonic flow from departing low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes.
1230 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 Low pressure will move into the Maritimes this afternoon. High pressure will build toward the area late in the weekend. Intense low pressure will move across northern Maine this morning then move into the maritimes later today and this evening. Colder air will move in from the northwest behind the low later today. A strong pressure gradient will develop today between the departing low and strong high pressure further to the west. Winds will slowly diminish late today and tonight as the low moves away from the region. Expect s/wv ridging late Thur night to be brief and slowly flatten out Fri mrng as H5 low drops south fm James Bay twd CWA.
Dry and tranquil weather conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley area this Thu morning, as temps continue to gradually warm into mainly the lower/mid 40s for many locations. The trough mentioned above will keep winds up a little bit tonight and should prevent temps from really bottoming out. Most areas will remain above freezing, except for our TN counties where a few places may drop into the upper 20s. The trough finally shifts east Friday evening and high pressure settles in over a large portion of the eastern US.
1125 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 High pressure with very dry air over all of northeastern Minnesota and the lakes region this morning and midday. A weakening cold front will continue to move southward across the region today, ushering in cooler Canadian high pressure.
Tonight through Friday night, guidance remains in good agreement showing upper ridge building over the Rockies and push eastward over the northern pains. At the surface, the lee trough will move eastward into the forecast area as a warm front, crossing the CWA Friday night. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer.
The cold front was situated southeast of the CWA, across the Florida peninsula. High pressure will build into the CWA tonight.
A shorter wave length upper trough was embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft across IA and eastern NE this afternoon and will dig southeast into the OH river valley on Friday. Highs across north central KS will reach the lower 60s with mid 50s across northeast KS.