Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri, with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm. Given strong directional low- level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
439 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SW FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
253 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A weak cold front today has kept temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday, though still well above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across southeast New Mexico and on the Marfa Plateau to the middle 40s to lower 50s elsewhere, noticeably cooler than last night, but still a few degrees above normal. Temperatures Wednesday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid 70s north to mid 80s south, with some lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley.
COOLER WEATHER AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. MAIN TROUGH AXES WERE NOTED FROM MB THROUGH MT. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM MI INTO IN AND KY INTO GA. WITH TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NEB INTO EASTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF LOWER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH AXIS SEPARATES MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST FROM MARITIME AIR OVER THE HGX CWA. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SE TX AND EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OR JUST BECOME DIFFUSE.
BROAD H500 TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
246 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE SLOWLY WOBBLING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THE CULPRIT IS AN EXTENDED LONG WAVE TROUGH SINKING INTO THE CONUS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A BROAD TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
with ridging aloft near the West Coast promoting deep cyclonic flow over the central part of the country.
THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON WED. A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND FINALLY HELP BRING SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION BY WED NIGHT.
This is producing a southwesterly flow of air across the forecast area, although efficient mixing has caused even the lowest levels in this onshore flow regime to dry out. Temperatures will remain well above normal with lows generally in the lower 60s.
A VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY AS MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
155 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
300 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 AFTER SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THIS DRY AIR WILL SETTLE NICELY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR OTHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. KEPT OVERNIGHT HIGHS WARMER OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO AFFECT THE AIRMASS AS MUCH TODAY. IT SERVES TO MENTION THERE IS STILL AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND THE LOW RH VALUES WE WILL SEE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
For the remainder of the short term, a low pressure system will move into the upper Midwest by this evening, then slowly move eastward tonight. A cold front associated with this system will move through tonight. The best chance for storms still looks to be across far northern portions of the forecast area closer to the low. Gusty southerly winds will develop though the day, ushering in warmer air.
A STRONGER S/W TROF MOVG FROM COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND CLOSE OFF AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF/LOW. AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ON WEDS.
These SHRA shud dissipate/move out of the region by Midnight as the low continues to pull newd out of the area. The low levels look quite dry so thinking is just some sprinkles from mid level clouds.
Upper level ridging and breezy southerly flow at the surface has brought the warmest temperatures so far this early spring season to central Kentucky and southern Indiana. A strong, deepening low pressure system analyzed this afternoon over central Missouri will track northeast toward western Wisconsin by tomorrow morning. A cold front will sweep through overnight, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. For Wednesday, plan on a mostly sunny, but breezy day as our region will lie between the deep low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure to our south.
ENOUGH SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY SETS UP CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR.
A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEBCAMS AND SOME MOUNTAIN AWOS SITES INDICATING SNOWFALL ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE COLD FRONT WORKED THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN AN UNSETTLED WEST FLOW.
149 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER SUNSHINE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DRY UPPER RIDGE NOW AMPLIFYING OFF THE CA COAST.
350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 3PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MO. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL MID MARCH WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
Negative tilted trof drives that Low pressure system across upper Mississippi valley and while overall columnar moisture is limited here, we do see surface dew points around 60F during pm/evening hours as front drives in. Front makes complete passage by 06z with westerlies drawing in some slightly cooler/drier air thereafter. The trof's passage will bring H5 height falls from close to 570 DM to closer to 554 DM by midday Wed, when we'll net highs about 10F cooler, and that trend continues into Thur with another 40-50 DM fall and wnwlys drawing temps down maybe another 5-10F for highs closer to 60F Thu pm.
This low is expected to quickly track to the northeast such that by around 21Z it should be in the vicinity of the MS River in northeastern MO. The limiting factors for severe weather will be instability -- if no sun breaks out in these areas, surface based convection will be unlikely -- and timing; whether or not convection can develop before the low pushes out of our forecast area this afternoon. Despite cooler temperatures, RH values will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range across the southwestern half of the CWA, and may fall to at least 30 percent CWA-wide. Cooler temperatures are still anticipated this weekend as an upper level trough digs into the central Plains and allows cool Canadian air to filter into the forecast area.
359 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AND FULL INSOLATION HAVE PROPELLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RESULTING IN A COLD FRONT BLOWING THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
312 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUSION THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.
615 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THEN RECONSOLIDATE AND TREND TOWARD A MORE CONSOLIDATED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST. THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER WILL BE INTENSE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN NWD INTO THE AREA TNGT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTENSE CYCLONE WILL DRIVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EAST WITHSYNOPSIS. COOLER AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG WITH TODAY'S 12Z ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW /ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA/ ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
THEN GENERALLY SIT OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO KEPT THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING THERE. BUT MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW POSITION AND RESULTANT AREA OF MAX WINDS ALOFT.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH FROM NEAR HARRISON. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE TROUGH 80-100 MILES TO THE WEST.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WELL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
Upper ridge still on track to build into the area through the week.
1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND HAS PUSHED INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY. FOR THE 00Z RUN HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON. THE NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT IN BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND AVERAGE TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST DETAILS WITH WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST.
Secondary cold front/surge is through KUIN/KPPQ and KCOU at 08z with the next weaker upstream vort max stretching from the upper low in WI into western IA. This second cold front will blast through the area this morning as the vort max rotates s/se, accompanied by gusty northwest winds, strong CAA and falling temperatures. Model soundings continue to exhibit steep low level lapse rates and strong unidirectional shear in the lowest few km, supportive of HCRs/snow showers with conditions becoming less favorable from north to south late morning into the afternoon. The potential for light snow showers and/or flurries will continue this evening, albiet lower, gradually shunting east of the MS River into IL overnight as the upper low moves east into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE- TO-END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W.
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON A COLOSSAL UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. WITHIN THIS TROUGH. RESULTING IN COOLER AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
In the upper levels, a deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around on the west side of the low. Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in scattered to numerous snow showers through the day.
541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR WAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY AFTN. FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT.
BEFORE CIGS/VIS LOWER AS -SHRA MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW PW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains. Model soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
High pressure will continue to build over the region today, promoting stable conditions and steadily degrading air quality across central Idaho and western Montana. The current high pressure pattern is still forecast to be over north central Idaho and western Montana for much of this week.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A DEL RIO TO HONDO TO AUSTIN LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY.
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.
400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016 THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ADDED THE GULF COAST TO THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TONIGHT WITH WNW WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH ESTOFS PUSHES THE HIGHEST VALUES INTO MAINLAND MONROE TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF COLLIER COUNTY.
207 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ANOTHER DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS MIGRATED NORTHWARD A BIT THIS MORNING AND IS NOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST.
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE WESTERN U.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days. and much warmer air to the southwest.
938 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 A FAST MOVING STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TX THIS MORNING AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND THE NOON HOUR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION JUST BEFORE NOON. THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
/issued 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes. The ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the Atlantic. After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LEAVES VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AND ITS EFFECTS AS THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM. WHILE THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE 30 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW INSTEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
WITH THE LOWERED WINDS. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
756 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning with strong high pressure and offshore flow continuing.
505 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND VIRGA TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY DUE TO MORNING SUNSHINE AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL NEAR MEMPHIS AREA. DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE. SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS.
LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FA THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR CONDS WITH -SHRA AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BECOMING VERY HAZARDOUS INTO TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1021 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
632 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.