Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SCT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS MRNG AS A COLD FRONT EXITS E. WEAK MID LVL TROFG COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN. WITH THE BEST CHCS IN THE RIDGES E-SE OF PIT WHERE LIMITED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVE AS THE MID LVL TROF EXITS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY MID MORNING.
Arctic high pressure will begin to nudge into the area today, but forecast soundings suggest a strengthening subsidence inversion just below 850 MB. So, we'll have to advect the low clouds out, as they will be unlikely to mix out.
1028 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UP THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN/NC LINE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 32 46 24 / 0 20 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 30 43 21 / 10 40 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 30 43 20 / 10 30 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 30 40 19 / 20 40 40 10.
SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED IN THE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY WITH 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AGAIN DECREASING THE HIGH WIND THREAT. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
645 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH TODAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL ADVANCE ACROSS UTAH THIS EVENING. THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BUT THE WINDOW IS SMALL AS THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH WILL DIMINISH SNOW RATES THEN TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TOWARD LIQUID BEFORE ENDING. MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING UP TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL GENERATE DEEPER LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING THE BEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS TRAILING THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
1029 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHICH IS FORTUNATE GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES (VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING). EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN US HIGHWAYS 85 AND 83 AS OF 12 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THIS MORNING.
BILLINGS WRIGHT THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK.
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
1121 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION INTO GA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL WE SHOULD HAVE A WEDGE AFFECTING THE NORTH AND A WARM FRONT VICINITY OF CENTRAL GA. THE WARM FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. A BIT WARMER ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT GETS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GOOD SHEAR VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY.
146 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SK WITH WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MN AND TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST CO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE PATTERN UNDERGOES NOTABLE CHANGE WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID AS 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SUSTAINS THERMAL RIDGE.
200 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 An upper low across eastern TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet, will fill as it lifts northeast into TN Monday afternoon. A more amplified upper level trough will move onshore across the western US on Monday. As a result of the amplified upper level trough moving into the western US, a downstream upper ridge will amplify across the central US.
These temperatures are about 10 degrees above average and about 15 degrees warmer than what we've seen the past couple of days.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND HEAD OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER CULLMAN COUNTY AND NE ALABAMA. MODELS PROG THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THIS OCCURS. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE LA/TX COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE THE HIGHEST ON THE GFS WHICH HAD OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE 30S W TO THE LOWER 50S SE ON TUE.
232 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
248 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. LIKELY OWING TO SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS E/SE PROGRESSION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED PONDING IN THE LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WHILE THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
340 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 (Tonight and Monday) As the upper-level cyclone over central TX moves slowly east, skies will continue to clear out. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s, but a few readings in the upper 30s wouldn't be surprising, mainly in the low-lying areas and river valleys. Warmer temperatures are anticipated on Monday, with afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND HEAD OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER CULLMAN COUNTY AND NE ALABAMA. MODELS PROG THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THIS OCCURS.
THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE POSITION OF THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS MOST POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ELSEWHERE.
1201 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF AND WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST BREEZE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S INLAND NORTHWEST PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG SHORT WAVES SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI UNTIL THE THERMAL TROF EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE THERMAL TROF TODAY. BUT WAA SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY.
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
WE WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY. UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YDAY. THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NV BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN WILL ALONG A COLD FRONT TODAY.
244 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVING TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE/TROUGH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS UPGLIDE DECREASES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
EVERYTHING FINALLY COMES TO AN END AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF US ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES TRY TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY BUT THINK RAIN WILL HOLD OUT FOR THE MORNING AND THIS TAF PERIOD. TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER.
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION AFTER HAVING LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS. NOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE AREA.
SUNSHINE AND WARMING 925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN EAST CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN WI. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
338 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 40S WITH A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. A WARM STARTING POINT AND CONTINUED WAA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 MPH RANGE.
ALSO, THERE WILL BE A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
1205 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF AND WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST BREEZE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S INLAND NORTHWEST PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG SHORT WAVES SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
241 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE 40 ACRES AND HEADED TOWARDS AGGIELAND THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CAUSE AN ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
LOWS FROM THE LOW 70S MAINLAND COASTAL AND WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LAYERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOISTENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE TO CONSIDER ANY LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ONSHORE (EASTERLY) FLOW DOMINATES THE LOW-LEVELS INTO FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT THE GFS FORECASTS TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL OVERNIGHT FRI AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL ON SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE THEN AS THAT BOUNDARY DIMINISHES THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER NORTH.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL TX. THEN EXPECT MORE PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
1153 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MORNING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CAUSE AN ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
340 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN LATE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
This is on the backside of an upper level low pressure system moving through eastern Texas and stronger zonal flow across the northern CONUS. Clear skies will continue overnight tonight with low temperatures expected to bottom out in the low to mid 40s. The models continue to show an upper level trough moving onshore over the western CONUS on Monday which will bring increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains.
347 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HAS BECOME NEAR STATIONARY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
312 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN MILD CONDITIONS IN THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.
GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS TODAY WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SAG SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING/STRENGTHEN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH. NEAR 700MB WINDS IN THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST UTAH WILL CREATE THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR HIGH WINDS FOR WESTERN UTAH.
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MID WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
1244 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THE WARMEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HIGHS A BIT. A POCKET OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT.
BUT THEY ARE SHIFTING W-SW OVER CENTRAL ND WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S.
216 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR W TO E 21Z-00Z AS BACK SIDE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST.
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAKENING SOME THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS N/NE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAKENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS LEVY COUNTY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT ONCE THE 500 MB TROUGH AND VORT MAX MOVE EAST.
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
346 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE LEADING TO BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL THUS BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE FROM THIS MORNING.
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK'S END.
342 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING.
354 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Upper level low. scattered rain showers were pushing into parts of Southeast Oklahoma and wrapping around the low. The upper level low will continue to exit off to the east overnight tonight with the backside of the low departing the region Monday morning. A slight chance of rain showers will remain possible along and near the Red River through late this evening before the low shifts far enough east. A ridge of high pressure sets up over the Plains for the first half of week with south to southwesterly flow increasing low level moisture over the CWA.
LEE TROUGHING WILL EMERGE FROM EASTERN NM INTO COLORADO AND SERVE TO BACK WINDS FROM NW-SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S HAS MADE FOR A VERY NICE AFTERNOON ON THIS FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSES/NWP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW OVER TX.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN CHANGING ON MONDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. STRONG/DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT E/NE DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A COUPLE DIFFERENT WAVES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EASTERN FA. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH.
257 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
THEN THE COOLER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN PLACE FROM 1KFT TO MANY. DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL TX. THEN EXPECT MORE PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED NOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE MID AND LOWER 70S.