Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR. HIGH TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE LOW 20S TONIGHT. ARDENT BLOCKY 130W RIDGING TO SEQUESTER MAJORITY OF CONSTRAINED ENERGY ACROSS NRN CA/NRN NV THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH QUITE NOMINAL LK THERMAL INSTABILITY FAVORS JUST A BIT HIGHER CLOUD COVER SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN MARKEDLY SHARPER WITH ENERGY TOPPING WESTERN RIDGE/PHASING WITH CANADIAN MARITIMES ROOTED VORTEX.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH NOW CROSSING ND AND THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVNG AS HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGING BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
1254 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION MAY NOT BE QUITE RIGHT. AND A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD HELP REALIZE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BUT COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS NEARING THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NOW BARELY REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS ITS BEEN PUSH SOUTH BUT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THAT TROUGHING AS A BROAD DESCRIPTOR ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE UNTIED STATES THROUGH ONE AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER CLOSING LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
347 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 H5 trough Hudsons Bay to central Rockies progressing east leaving energy behind in north CA/NV which cuts off by 12z Fri. Meanwhile H5 ridge holds over B.
1223 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW WORKS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL FORM INTO ITS OWN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MOVING VERY FAR. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WARBLING BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. IT WILL KEEP SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. COVERAGE OF THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GAINS MORE INFLUENCE.
Water vapor imagery showing broad upper trough into over the much of the western and central ConUS with a few weak waves making eastward progress out of the Central Rockies, spreading some mid cloud into western and central portions of Kansas. Continued dry air advection in the lower levels should allow for continued clearing skies today, with some scattered mid cloud suggested by most models in the west. Winds over the lower few thousand feet look strong enough to keep any widespread fog in check tonight, but if clouds are slower to move out today, a better setup for fog will be in place.
FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
Near term forecast challenge is the low cloud/clearing. It looks like the best west to east displacement of the airmass will occur after 00Z, when a rounding upper trof begins to translate southward down the Mississippi river valley. This will finally shift the low clouds.
240 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A TAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTCENTRAL MN LAKES COUNTRY WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WEAK TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN. POST TROF/FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS STILL PUSHING ACROSS FROM NCENTRAL ND WILL CUT THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHORT FOR THE CENTRAL RRV COMMUNITIES. DEVILS LAKE BASIN COULD SEE A FEW RAYS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE IN THE CLEARING PATCH WHICH FOLLOWS THE LOW CLOUD DECK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. WITH SECONDARY TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL.
232 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Upper air and moisture channel data shows area of clouds over Mn that associated with weak upper trof that will rotate through northern IL late tonight and Fri morning. After the weak wave moves through tonight, drier air over the region Friday as we remain in a northwest flow aloft pattern with the main upper trof over the east coast. Series of weak cold fronts move into regon to reinforce the cold air over IL.
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON NEW YEARS DAY SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
323 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
Exception may come in our BWG counties, where model time height sections (and upstream satellite) show a better chance for breaks in the lower overcast during the day. Not much will change in the overall pattern today or tonight, with high pressure ridging in from the west. Friday, an upper trough will move across the Midwest, down into the Ohio Valley by afternoon.
1100 AM MST THU DEC 31 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING IN. FREEZING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER DENSE FREEZING FOG WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MANY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT FROM DUNKEN NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN JON.
WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BUT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO MAINLY NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. PROGS SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
High pressure at the sfc and an upper trough aloft will keep us dry and cool. Highs on Friday should range from the mid 30s to lower 40s with low temps on Fri night in the low to mid 20s.
1147 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDING THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING IF THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT GET ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ARE MAKING IT FEEL AT BIT COOLER.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT NIGHT THANKS TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING. CANADIAN RIDGING WILL BE TAKING OVER BY NEW YEARS MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
333 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S (COOLEST N/NW). IN THE LOWER 30S (RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS NW PIEDMONT) TO MID/UPPER 30S (SE).
A RESULT OF BROAD TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN WY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MO/AR AREA. AND HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO/A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.
Expect deteriorating conditions next 24 hours as a cold front backdoors into West Texas and Southeast new Mexico.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STOUT RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. BUT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE TRANSPORT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TO THE LOW 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN REALIZED AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW PACK REMAINS. REX BLOCK SETS UP TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING CANADIAN RIDGE. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING A WARMER PACIFIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY. UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO ARCTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM WESTERN CONUS.
1249 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
EXPECT WARMER WEATHER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
Medium range models indicate a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the high plains of western Kansas early in the period Friday while a Rex Block briefly develops across across the Pacific Northwest down into northern California and Nevada.
WATER VAPOR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THE LOW FORMING OVER OR/ID. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO FRI WHILE A CUTOFF LOW FORMS AND DRIFTS INTO N CA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON SAT. SQUEEZING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOTE DISPARITIES AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR WATCHING. THUS HAVE BLENDED FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH GFS NUMBERS TO LOWER THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES. THE TRAILING VORTICITY MAX FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING NNW OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 30S ON SUN WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN PLACE. GENERAL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA MON THROUGH THU.
WITH STRONG RIDGE DOWN ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST.
1254 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 302 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ATLANTA GEORGIA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL BE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
1142 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
Mixing is expected to persist thru the night, which shud help keep temps slightly warmer despite the clear sky. This will be offset somewhat with upper level ridge building into the region which will help keep the area dry. The low level moisture is pretty shallow, so the thinking right now is the wind will prevent any fog.
143 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
WITH RIDGING THEN BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAILED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THERE WAS BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL BE COMING IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE GULF SPREADING TO THE COASTAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND TOMORROW HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AS COLDER AIR SURGES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS COOLER AIR HAS LESS WATER TO HOLD THAN WARMER AIR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COOLER DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
Quiet weather (sunshine!) is in place today with weak high pressure moving through the region.
A weak cold front continues to bring colder air into West Central Texas from the north. As warmer air moves up and over the colder air near the surface, light precipitation may develop overnight and tomorrow.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH COOLER AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TROUGHING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEYS ALOFT. WHILE THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON AT THE SURFACE.
A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS ALSO.
EXPECT 2 INCHES OR LESS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CORRIDOR. ON NEW YEARS DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TOWARD THE LOW CENTER BEGINS FROM NEW MEXICO NW OVER SWRN CO AND ERN UT. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NRN CA AND THE PACNW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC.
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED BACK ACROSS CO TO NV. WITH A CLOSED LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OR AND NORTHERN CA. MODELS AGREE ON FORMING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT KEPT TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST. 20S TO AROUND 30 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE RECEIVED IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLIER. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A PERIOD OF VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SATURATION UP TO NEAR THE DENDRETIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW BUT IN GENERAL THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD OF A WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT EAST-WEST TROUGH. WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR REGION.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ FREEZING FOG HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES AROUND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME PLACES DROPPING BELOW ONE HALF MILE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL AS MAINTAINING CLOUDS. WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the western US resulting in a split flow pattern from the center of the country eastward. At the surface, strong high pressure with more of a maritime origin will prevail underneath the upper ridge but extend its influence into the Plains as well. With warming temperatures aloft, surface temperatures look warmer over the next couple of days than they did with yesterday's forecast.
A ridge of high pressure will continue building over the northern Rockies. For the Camas Prairie of Idaho, temperatures were kept in the low teens for the same reason.
FARTHER SOUTH THE BAND EAST OF LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TO NORTHWEST CATSKILLS.
1108 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Very little to talk about this morning as region remains under the influence of sfc ridging which extends into our area from the northwest.
1254 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
549 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL POOL NEAR THE LOW.
619 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WINDS. /ISSUED 342 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK AS DEWPTS INCREASE SOME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACTUALLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC AND ALOFT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL WAVE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS ONE LAST UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. FOCUS ALONG A COLD FRONT ALOFT. HAVE THE LOWLAND RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS AND THE RIDGES IN THE 1-2" RANGE.
Light rain or drizzle will develop later this afternoon and continue into this evening, with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Enough cold air is expected to hold on that snowflakes will be initially possible, especially in Arkansas, but as warm air advection continues the precipitation will transition toward mainly freezing drizzle, with some sleet possible with any heavier precip rates. Freezing drizzle will continue to be the mostly likely precip type.
457 AM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 WIND SHIFTS IN TAFS THIS MORNING ARE REFLECTIVE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES ALOFT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT THEN NORTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS NM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOLER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. NEXT TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NM TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE WEDNESDAY. AND BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
So a mix of drizzle/freezing drizzle/sleet/snow will be possible. Most areas will be at or below freezing with the exception of the far sw corner of MO. Precip may end as a bit of freezing drizzle as we lose cloud ice. In general have the highest snow totals over the northern and eastern cwfa (2-3 inches. The progged track of the upper low/vort max has been somewhat variable, but it looks like some snow and/or rain will occur as the system passes late Wed night, Thu, and Thu night.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINAL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR NEAR THE 20/12Z TIMEFRAME. /ISSUED 456 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE OUR TEXAS COUNTIES IN A WARMER RANGE OF MID TO UPPER THIRTIES WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT QFP TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
945 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUING CAA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH A NW BREEZE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEENS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW/MID 20S DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE MT/ND BORDER AND SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES VALLEY WERE AROUND ZERO. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TO THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA AND THE JAMES VALLEY. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. MODELS STILL SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
615 AM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 WEAK TROUGHS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
629 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH WED.
RIGHT NOW KEPT MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. THEREFORE EXPECTING LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER THEN TODAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY IS WARMING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES EASTWARD AND A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
1000 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THE COLUMN IN GENERAL IS MUCH DRIER WITH A DECENT DRY LAYER 3-4KFT DEEP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE OVER PRIMARILY PORTER COUNTY WILL SLOWLY EXIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.