Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A broad upper ridge will remain centered near/just east of the Four Corners Region, extending eastward across the Southern Plains.
(Rest of Today) Started this morning off a few degrees cooler in the 60s, but temps have quickly jumped into the upper 70s/lower 80s. It will be warmer today with highs reaching the lower 90s.
Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the coming week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. The center of a strong high pressure system was located over the New Mexico/Colorado border this morning. Over the coming week the high center will wobble between its current position to westward over Arizona producing subtle changes in moisture values across the state. If clouds persist through the day then the current precipitation chances could be on the high side. Considering the general position of the high, thunderstorms will be most numerous across the Mogollon Rim northward to the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau along with locations to the south and west (Yavapai and Gila counties).
HREF ensemble guidance continues to support early convective development around or shortly after noon over the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 50s, skinny CAPE profiles in forecast soundings, and PWAT values above the 90th percentile for mid-July will all support a heavy rain threat as thunderstorms organize and move eastward. Still, some isolated afternoon convection is possible especially in the high plains in a drier, northwest flow regime.
Surface winds are becoming more southeasterly as a mid level ridge has broken down, partly a result of an approaching and decaying upper low. Temperatures now in the low to mid 80s are still expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
For tomorrow, with the mid/upper ridge trying to build back into the Plains, out pattern should be shifting back to a more typical one for summer. High temperatures are going to run a bit "cooler" than it has been with highs in the lower to mid 90s today.
Afternoon highs will be slightly above normals, topping out in the lower to mid 90s.
1054 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 An upper low continues to spin just to the east of the Keys. Heights at 300 and 200 mb rose slightly this morning, indicating the low is filling. The axis of an inverted trough in the easterlies is over the Cay Sal Bank, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on its western flank sliding through the islands. High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
Early afternoon development over the higher terrain of central Montana is indicated by the convective allowing models, with activity spreading east/northeast before exiting into North Dakota late in the evening.
Today should be a carbon copy of yesterday with isolated to scattered showers and T'storms steered by classic E/SE flow around the high pressure. Storms will move into the lower deserts west of Tucson with the potential for blowing dust.
as high pressure will be anchored over the Lower Great Lakes.
925 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today.
513 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania today and tonight. High pressure and its associated dry air mass building in from the Grt Lks will provide the area with mainly sunny skies and light winds today. Mixing down ensemble mean 800mb temps of around 10C supports highs ranging from the upper 70s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid and upper 80s across the Susq Valley. A light southeasterly flow will develop Friday night and begin to draw some low-level moisture into the area, as high pressure pulls to our east. Radiational cooling and an influx of low level moisture could potentially promote late night valley fog across the Lower Susq Valley.
701 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A trough will remain near the area over the next few days and provide a focus for scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows dry air aloft pushing into the Upstate with general troughing over the area. With the moisture gradient in place today expect more cloudiness and higher chances for precipitation in the east leading to lower highs today with warmer conditions in the NW. General surface and upper trough across the region through the period. With upper ridge to the west and long wave trough to the north, the area appears to be in a difluent flow aloft.
The front eventually brings us slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday with highs mostly in the upper 80s, which would be just below normal climatological.
Overall it should be a nice day today with an area of high pressure over the southern Appalachians and another area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Low temps will range from the lower 60s in the river valleys to middle 60s elsewhere.
In the wake of the rain from yesterday and this morning 500mb ridging will continue to bring warm air to the mid levels and with the clear skies temps will climb into the mid and upper 80s today and tomorrow.
Otherwise there is good confidence in the forecast as most guidance shows upper level ridging remaining over the region through the forecast period. 07Z water vapor imagery showed an upper ridge of high pressure centered over the central Rockies. Based on the forecast 1000- 500MB thicknesses and temps aloft, highs should be a degree or two warmer than what was observed yesterday. This is expected to bring slightly cooler temps to northern parts of the forecast area.
217 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Temperatures trend warmer into this weekend with widespread triple digit highs in the Valley. High pressure will continue over the region but will strengthen a little going into this weekend.
Highs will be a little warmer on Friday in the north as there will be a touch more sun. We may see a few heat index reading near 100 in the west early afternoon, but we should mix out during the peak heating and see readings at or just a degree or two above the highs.
With the added influence of the upper level low, some of the storms could have gusty winds, frequent lightning and possibly small hail.
Today Through Saturday Night Not much change to the short term period with this morning's package, and heat remains a focus for the area thanks to persistent upper ridging. The center of this upper ridge will remain anchored over the southern Rockies through the weekend with heights progged to reach 596 to 597 dam across a large portion of CO, NM, KS, and western OK/TX.
546 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build into the region through the first half of the weekend and bring mainly dry and fair weather. High pressure and associated dry air will provide the area with mainly sunny skies today. High clouds will increase tonight ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes.
1206 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (The rest of today ) Upper ridge continues to expand some over the plains today, and will result in temperatures at or warmer than those observed yesterday.
Lows tonight will only fall into the lower 70s, with highs Saturday in the middle to upper 90s, with readings in the Ozark Foothills possibly hitting 100 degrees. As the low moves east Saturday night, a weak cold front will lay out from west to east just north of our region.
Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to downslope southwest low level flow seeing wind gusts up to 20-30 mph for much of the CWA.
1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Have seen isolated high-based storms develop in northwest Iowa early this morning in response to low level jet, while mid-level wave sliding along/north of the 850mb warm front to our north triggers more robust activity well north of our area. The balance of today should be quiet and a little cooler than yesterday, though low level temperatures (excluding the excessively over-mixed GFS) still support highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
316 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A 597 dam ridge remains locked in over the Southern Rockies with northwesterly flow aloft over the OH Valley feeding into a trough over the eastern CONUS. The Mid-South continues to see the influence of this ridge with above normal temperatures and little to no rainfall anticipated in the near-term. Temperatures today will top out in the mid/upper 90s but dewpoints in the low/mid 60s will generally help keep heat indices at bay.
Expect daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. We don't expect the lower elevations (south of the Mogollon Rim) to be quite as active today, mainly due to to a rain-cooled boundary layer and debris cloud cover.
Temps are currently in the mid to upper 70s and we have many more hours for additional heating, so I held off on adjusting forecast highs in those areas (should still reach the lower 80s). In the wake of the rain from yesterday and this morning 500mb ridging will continue to bring warm air to the mid levels and with the clear skies temps will climb into the mid and upper 80s today and tomorrow.
An inverted trough located overhead has been the source of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. The trough centered near Matagorda this morning has continued to push inland and further east throughout the day, helping to invigorate this convection. Models are hinting at another inverted trough tomorrow morning as a mid level easterly wave pushes into the South Texas coast.
With the lack of the upper forcing and less instability in the region, went ahead and cleared out the low pops we had for Saturday afternoon and evening.
By Saturday morning, precipitation will diminish across the CWA as heights briefly rise on the eastern side of an upper level ridge.
414 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conditions across eastern Kentucky are quiet with temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a fair weather cumulus deck sitting in the lower levels and increasing clouds in the upper levels. Tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 60s.
Mid-level ridging will keep quiet weather in place on Saturday, with rain/storm chances expected to be near zero. /Issued 253 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ /Saturday Night and Beyond/ A mid/upper level ridge should remain located along an axis roughly extending from the southern Rockies to the Southern Plains, keeping hot and rain-free conditions in place for just about all of the forecast period.
(Tonight) As the trough over the eastern Great Lakes lifts through the Northeast, the vast ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS starts to slide eastward.
An upper level ridge persists over the southwestern CONUS with another upper ridge over the western Atlantic, essentially keeping the local area within weak mid to upper level flow. Lows tonight are expected to range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. High temperatures on Saturday will be slightly warmer, mainly in the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s near the coast.
(The rest of today ) Upper ridge continues to expand some over the plains today, and will result in temperatures at or warmer than those observed yesterday.
(This evening through Saturday Night) With upper-level ridging now centered just north and west of the Llano Estacado, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in dry northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid-70s, with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. With dew points remaining in the low 70s, heat indices will approach the 105 degree mark, yet remain too marginal for Heat Advisory issuance. That said, Texas zones will remain warmer with highs at or near the triple-digit mark, and subsequent forecast packages will have more detailed guidance for hazard issuance.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Nashville has once again hit 90+ degrees today tying the 6th longest streak of consecutive 90 degrees or warmer days. The high resolution models have additional isolated showers moving into the area from the north overnight ahead of a weak disturbance, so a small slight chance PoP was included. Saturday will be a similar day today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge is forecast to remain centered near the Four Corners region through Saturday, resulting in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
1210 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Southeasterly winds are increasing the low level moisture over the area early this afternoon. Convection currently developing over the higher terrain to the southwest of the forecast area will spread into northeastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota around 3 PM MDT, with scattered thunderstorms continuing northeastward across much of western South Dakota through the evening and overnight. 07z surface analysis had weak trough from north central MT to western NE. Additional energy noted over NV/UT, which will round the upper ridge for this afternoon/tonight. CAMs suggest TSRA starts over the higher Black Hills by early afternoon, and then over the higher terrain of WY mid-afternoon.
Temperatues are on track for maximums in the mid-90s in most areas outside of the Ouachita River Valley (with highs in the lower 90s). Upper-level ridging looks. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) At the start of the period, a strong upper-level ridge will still be centered over the Four Corners Region. The trailing end of an upper trough axis extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwest into Missouri, Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma will slowly move southeast.
1247 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build toward the region through Saturday.
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Main challenge is the position of the weak cold front on Saturday which will impact where the most intense daytime heat will reside. General short term model consensus suggests only a slight southward move of the effective cold front on on Saturday just south of the I-70 corridor, perhaps as far south as the highway 56 corridor in central Kansas by peak heating Saturday. As per the past few days, some elevated convection originating tonight over the high Plains may wane as it moves southeastward into portions of central and eastern Kansas Saturday morning.
For tomorrow, it will be a fairly similar story but a tick warmer and a tick more humid with peak heat indices in the 100-105 range more common across the area.
Light east winds will develop later today into tonight, as a trough pushes across northern Illinois.
144 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A warm/hot and dry weekend on tap with Saturday being slightly warmer.
Regarding temperatures: Temperatures on Saturday may be similar to toady if not a touch warmer ranging form the mid 80s to near 90 at warmer locations in the Red River Valley.
The upper level low is still influencing convection and could lead to some stronger storms. The upper level low will begin to wash out tomorrow along with the added moisture and instability it has been providing. Highs in most areas in the low 90s.
134 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 The center of upper level ridging is located across the TX/OK panhandle region this afternoon. The center of upper level ridging retrogrades westward into the Four Corners region though much of the upcoming week.
134 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Starting off the short term period, somewhat cooler winds from the north/northeast are keeping temperatures a little lower today than yesterday with most areas in the 80s. With the low level moisture, muggy conditions will continue through the short term period with dew points between 65 and 70 degrees across the area.
The latest RAP upper air analysis early this afternoon shows the center of the H500 high pressure system is currently located over northeastern NM early this afternoon. Upper level high shifts a bit further east to just over some areas of the Panhandles during the day tomorrow. A subtle upper level disturbance traversing around the high pressure aloft will move across the higher terrain to the west tomorrow.
153 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today.
Ridging is a bit suppressed so tempeatures will still be warm on Saturday.
1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (Rest of Today) Started this morning off a few degrees cooler in the 60s, but temps have quickly jumped into the upper 70s/lower 80s. It will be warmer today with highs reaching the lower 90s.
Mid-level ridging will keep quiet weather in place on Saturday, with rain/storm chances expected to be near zero.
1114 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 07z surface analysis had weak trough from north central MT to western NE. Additional energy noted over NV/UT, which will round the upper ridge for this afternoon/tonight. CAMs suggest TSRA starts over the higher Black Hills by early afternoon, and then over the higher terrain of WY mid-afternoon.
Tomorrow, low pressure will remain off to our south in Illinois.
355 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conditions across eastern Kentucky are quiet with temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a fair weather cumulus deck sitting in the lower levels and increasing clouds in the upper levels. Tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 60s.
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 The axis to an inverted low level trough sits between the Florida Keys and the Cay Sal Bank. The Middle Keys had several rounds of thundery squalls, with most of these squalls eroding as the pass to to the west across the Seven Mile Bridge. Temperatures across the island chain are in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The upper low to our east will erode over the next 24-hours, releasing its grip on the inverted trough in the low levels.
The inverted trough evident at 700mb being the main cause for the rain across South Texas today, will shift off to the northwest tonight into Saturday with high pressure filtering in to its east. High pressure building in from our northeast and east will allow for warmer temperatures and only partly cloudy skies on Saturday.
Some diurnally driven isolated thunderstorms will still be possible across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend this afternoon, with storms dissipating around sunset. The center of the ridge remains fixed across northern New Mexico tomorrow, unfortunately keeping the region dry with little to no chances for rain. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night continue to stay mild, only falling to the mid 70s for most with 60s in the higher elevations.
Aloft, a longwave trough extends from over the Canadian Maritimes southwest to over the Central Florida Panhandle. Broad ridging remains to our west centered over Northeast New Mexico. Drier air aloft behind the longwave trough was resulting in lower PWAT values, around 1. Highs will range from around 90 east to the low 90s west. Lows will range from the upper 60s northeast to the low 70s west.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A somewhat ill-defined inverted trough or weakness moving overhead will pass to the west tonight, effectively ending any significant/mentionable rain chances in the short term. Mid-level ridging over the Southwest United States will extend east into the Southern High Plains, drying out the 850 to 700 mb layer and supporting hot and mostly dry weather through the weekend. Temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to a few degrees above the century mark in Starr and Zapata Counties.
148 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
Widespread cloud cover has held fledgling updrafts in check so far early this afternoon, but satellite trends show the back/west edge of the cloud shield approaching Burley and Mackay, and the latest runs on the high-res model suite still say we're a go between 3 PM and 4 PM.
Conditions will remain VFR overnight at all sites as fog looks unlikely, due to increasing cloud cover from an approaching upstream trough. This trough is expected to bring broken VFR cigs around 5 kft at TRI around 12Z.
1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure continues over the area. Today Through Saturday Night Not much change to the short term period with this morning's package, and heat remains a focus for the area thanks to persistent upper ridging. The center of this upper ridge will remain anchored over the southern Rockies through the weekend with heights progged to reach 596 to 597 dam across a large portion of CO, NM, KS, and western OK/TX.
(Through tonight ) Expansive high pressure ridge centered near Kenton, OK will maintain unseasonably dry and warm conditions overnight. A few mid and high level clouds are rotating south along the periphery of the ridge and a broad cu field has developed across far east and southeast OK into western AR this afternoon.
245 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Upper ridge axis extended from eastern MT to the southern High Plains.
What could also pop up more storms over the next couple hours in the far east is an increase in the low-level jet. Ridging is a bit suppressed so tempeatures will still be warm on Saturday.
617 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (This evening through Saturday Night) With upper-level ridging now centered just north and west of the Llano Estacado, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in dry northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid-70s, with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. With dew points remaining in the low 70s, heat indices will approach the 105 degree mark, yet remain too marginal for Heat Advisory issuance. That said, Texas zones will remain warmer with highs at or near the triple-digit mark, and subsequent forecast packages will have more detailed guidance for hazard issuance.
915 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Spotty short-lived showers have been occurring across parts of far NEMO and WC IL for the past few hours to the north of a warm front located in the vicinity of the MS River. By Saturday morning, precipitation will diminish across the CWA as heights briefly rise on the eastern side of an upper level ridge.
In the lower-levels, there is an inverted trough across the forecast area. As the inverted trough continues to round the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, the Florida Keys will be placed on the more favorable eastern side of the feature. Due to this good placement of the island chain in regards to the inverted trough, have maintained above normal PoPs for tonight. From synopsis, High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
Starting off the short term period, somewhat cooler winds from the north/northeast are keeping temperatures a little lower today than yesterday with most areas in the 80s. With the low level moisture, muggy conditions will continue through the short term period with dew points between 65 and 70 degrees across the area.
427 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Radar indicated small thunderstorms developing along the trough axis across the north central zones, in response to the super heated boundary layer. Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to downslope southwest low level flow seeing wind gusts up to 20-30 mph for much of the CWA.
621 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge is forecast to remain centered near the Four Corners region through Saturday, resulting in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
/issued 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ A 597 dam ridge remains locked in over the Southern Rockies with northwesterly flow aloft over the OH Valley feeding into a trough over the eastern CONUS. The Mid-South continues to see the influence of this ridge with above normal temperatures and little to no rainfall anticipated in the near-term. Temperatures today will top out in the mid/upper 90s but dewpoints in the low/mid 60s will generally help keep heat indices at bay.