Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the low continues to shift off to the east, a rather strong pressure gradient behind it will result in gusty northwest winds through the morning hours, with some gusts as high as 40 mph. High pressure builds overhead for Sunday, with a very pleasant day in store for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, light winds and abundant sunshine! The quiet and pleasant weather will continue Sunday night with the high shifting east of the area.
As this system moves closer, the warm front stays to our south, but the low-level jet up around 850-mb will help to advect in a warmer, more unstable air mass aloft. While the best elevated instability will generally be along the nose of the low-level jet over central/northern Tennessee, we could still see enough instability over northern Alabama and south Middle Tennessee for a few rumbles of thunder. Our attention will quickly turn to the aforementioned low pressure system that will shift into the lower Ohio Valley that will push a cold front across the region on Saturday. The sky should begin to clear off late in the day, but strong NW flow will help to keep temperatures in check with highs only in the low to mid 60s.
A strong upper level disturbance will exit the high plains tonight, resulting in decreasing clouds with the loss of daytime heating. An increase in mid level cloud may prevent temperatures from getting close to the freezing point in far western Kansas, with mid to upper 30s more likely there. There is s small chance of thunderstorms along the Oklahoma state line (Liberal east to Ashland and Medicine Lodge) late Sunday night as the low level jet and 700mb thermal gradient set up in that area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Latest satellite imagery and surface observations clearly indicate a weak cold front is moving into the northern edge of the CWA this morning. Slightly cooler air will filter into deep south Texas through the weekend but temperatures are expected to remain near normal.
204 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Cooler air continues to push into the area this morning in wake of a dry cold front. Otherwise high temps will fall into the U70s-M80s today, except warmer along the Rio Grande. Cooler conditions Sun AM will give way to a quick warm-up into the M80s-L90s for most areas, but it will turn breezy/windy Sun PM. A cold front Tue night will bring some brief relief from the heat on Wed, but the heat returns Thur and even moreso Fri.
Cold front extends from near Shreveport southwest to Conroe TX.
In addition, models continue to show a possible mid level jet of 40-50 knots moving across the region and bringing cooler air aloft. By Sunday evening, model solutions depict a long wave trough trekking across the SE CONUS, which should begin pushing the front away from the peninsula and allow for a drying trend to begin.
Additionally, with the upper level low tracking to our north as well, a rather potent mid/upper level axis will pinwheel across the area. Moving on, cold front moves through this evening with backside energy remaining through tonight and into Sunday as well.
This is in association with a weak upper low that is moving from northwest to southeast from south-central North Dakota into north- central South Dakota this morning.
Tonight Through Sunday Night Current mesoanalysis indicates a broad longwave 500 hPa trough over the CONUS, with an embedded, progressive perturbation over Wrn OK. Storms should progress quickly across the region overnight Fri, with the cold front clearing the state by Sat morning. Cooler and settled weather will become prevalent over the weekend as high pressure filters in from the NW, with winds subsiding on Sun.
303 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. Within broad eastern-CONUS longwave troughing, a stacked low pressure system will move into the lower Ohio River Valley region today.
Diurnal heating effects in particular look to be the driving force behind this potential convection, coupled with a weak trough axis moving through as well to help enhance convection somewhat. Another stronger and deeper trough axis and parent low will propagate through the mid-Atlantic and into the NE, dragging an attendant cold front down the peninsula, bringing with it some cooler and drier air too. Warming will take place during the week, with the high pressure axis that settles in late tomorrow beginning to shift father to the east, leading to a WSW return flow and advection of warmer and more humid air over the peninsula.
Adjusted hourly temps over the next 6 hours and slightly lowered the low temp for tonight. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 53 64 44 71 / 70 40 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 53 59 42 66 / 70 60 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 52 59 42 67 / 80 60 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 51 58 41 61 / 70 80 50 50 20.
As for temperatures, should see highs at or just above normal for this time of year - in the lower to mid 60s.
High temperatures will reach the low 80s in the mountains to near 100 degrees across the lowest valleys of northern Arizona.
Drier air will begin to move into the area as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southwestern U. However, high and some mid-level clouds will increase this evening as the aforementioned ridge flattens and a trough moving across the Northern Rockies approaches the region. The trough will drag across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado on Sunday before the axis slides overhead Sunday evening. Increased moisture will generally be confined to the midlevels of the atmosphere through midday before Bufkit soundings show the lower levels becoming saturated.
Clouds will remain persistent all day over the eastern CWA keeping it cooler with highs in the lower 60s. High pressure will provide for mostly sunny skies but weak mixing keeping highs near normal in the mid 60s to near 70.
1134 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over western ND. Seasonably mild temperatures continue through Saturday (though clouds/precip may keep temps a bit cooler in our west than the last few days). Cooler temps behind the system Tue night into Wed. There are good indications that a decent ridge will start to build over the region for Thu and Fri moving temps trough the 60s and toward that 70 degree mark.
906 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020 High pressure aloft will keep the days warm to hot through Saturday before weakening.
1045 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 (This evening through Saturday) An upper trough currently across the Central High Plains will be digging into Oklahoma in the next few hours and through the evening hours, providing the upper support for storms to begin firing up soon across portions of northcentral into eastcentral Oklahoma. Being on the back side of the cold front, tonight should be dry and a little bit cooler and breezy as we tap into air originating from the Central High Plains.
Upper level ridging continues to build across the western US. As the upper trough and cold pool aloft move slowly eastward, ample sunshine will allow for a warmer day today. Most areas will push into the low to mid 60s with generally dry conditions. Aforementioned ridging will continue to build into the northern plains Sunday with robust warm air advection beginning tonight. Thermal ridge will overspread the northern plains by Sunday morning with peak 850mb temps around 12-17C during the afternoon supporting highs well into the 70s area wide.
159 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows multiple small scale short wave troughs in the northwest flow from the Great Basin onto the Plains. This morning a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest part of the forecast area. Through the rest of the day northwest winds will be light and highs will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Within the flow a short wave trough will develop over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon, moving east. This trough may lead to some rain development as it moves into the northwest part of the forecast area during the evening. Due to the short wave trough moving into the forecast area during the evening, am not too confident of the rainfall lasting very long due to daytime heating ending.
217 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A 500 mb ridge will build over our region today. This will mean drier and warmer conditions despite some increasing high clouds from the west during the afternoon. A short wave trough will scoot across southern Canada tonight and Sunday flattening the ridge, and may produce a few showers over the high country as well. However, the lower elevations are expected to remain dry thanks to brisk downslope flow in the mid levels. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s today, and push into the lower 70s Sunday.
High temperatures will be quite varied today, ranging from the lower 60s over central Indiana to the lower 50s north of Route 6.
851 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Latest radar was quiet this evening in advance of cold front which will bring some showers on Saturday. A cold front will move from west to east during Saturday into Saturday night. A weak cold front and weather system will approach from the west during the afternoon hours and could bring showers to DLS.
An area of low pressure will move from the Ozarks northeastward to the Great Lakes area and drag a cold front through our area tonight. Sufficient moisture and lift remains further north so just a wind shift is expected along with cooler temperatures for Sunday. Highs today will be in the mid 80s with lows tonight in the low 60s.
1252 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. Within broad eastern-CONUS longwave troughing, a stacked low pressure system will move into the lower Ohio River Valley region today.
Given recent trends on these types of days, decided to increase highs a few degrees over NBM guidance and leverage warmer guidance. On Sunday night, the first short wave trough moving across to the north may bring some showers/storms to the northeast cwa.
Showers should decrease with the loss of daytime heating and as some ridging builds into the area. Drying and warming expected Saturday as a ridge builds in over Wyoming. An upper level low will begin its trek across Canada Saturday night.
Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the low 50s in rain cooled areas to the lower 60s in central Indiana and western Ohio. Sharpening low level inverted trough will allow for tightening deformation/fgen axis to develop across northeast Illinois and into northwest Indiana overnight into early Saturday morning (possibly SW Lower Michigan). Digging nature of upper trough may allow this fgen forcing to persist across west/northwest areas for much of the day tomorrow which would necessitate continuation of increasing PoP trend. Upper trough through ern KS this aftn will sharpen considerably into wrn KY by this time tomorrow before nrn stream disturbance phases Sat night. Thereafter based on swd swing of upper low see little reason to not adjust pop gradient strongly sewd Sat night and shrink prior shower mention Sun morning.
Weak north-south running sfc boundary associated with the trough, sets up across MN today. Weakly convergent, but enough lift along it when coupled with the upper level trough to spark some showers. For Sunday, while the mean trough slips south a northern bit of that energy lingers across the local area.
Rain will overspread central Indiana this afternoon and tonight as a low pressure system moves from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley.
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Steady rainfall will affect much of central Illinois today and into tonight, with isolated thunderstorms possible over southeast Illinois, as low pressure tracks near the Ohio Valley. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Classic mid latitude cyclone evolving over the central US this morning. 1004 mb low pressure was analyzed over southwest MO, coincident with a sharp 500 mb trof. This will be the main impactful weather maker as is slowly pivots east across the area today and tonight, while low pressure deepens into western KY this afternoon. Highs in these areas will reach the lower 60s. High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday, accompanied by sunshine and diminishing winds as the day progresses. Highs will rebound into the lower 60s.
Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building slowly eastward from the Pacific coast into the Intermountain West. Saturday-Saturday night: With relatively little change in the overall pattern, expect conditions similar albeit slightly warmer conditions. Temperatures will be above normal with highs reaching the low to mid-80s across the entire Tri-State area.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over Central Canada early this morning. with pronounced low level ridging extending thru much of the Great Lakes region. A look at upstream satellite images shows the northern edge of the cirrus shield associated with low pressure over Missouri is steadily lifting northward thru Wisconsin. Strong surface ridging will remain overhead. A fairly benign weather pattern continues across the northern Great Lakes region as high pressure remains overhead. Winds will become more northerly to northeasterly as a low pressure system passes to the southeast of Michigan Sunday.
The short wave trough looks just a bit slower moving east than previous runs.
We'll top out in the mid/upper 70s today and cool into the lower 50s tonight.
becoming more westerly after 08z with passage of weak cold front. Warm front will lift north of the region this morning. A cold front will move southeast across area Tonight.
An upper level trough will swing through SE Missouri and into the Ohio valley today bringing an associated dry cold front through the forecast zones today and tonight.
Snow levels are around 7500 feet, and the higher elevations could see a couple inches of accumulation. Skies will be clearing and 700mb temperatures will be around 2 degrees C warmer over yesterday, allowing for highs around 4 to 6 degrees F warmer. Warm advection and downsloping pattern should result in much warmer low temperatures tonight along and near the foothills.
Lows on Sunday morning will range from the low to mid 50s.
508 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge running up from the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West and cresting over southern half of Alberta. Northwest flow extends from this ridge across eastern montana and into the Dakotas. Farther west a large trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today through tonight: Ridge will move across eastern Montana generating a clear sky day followed by chinook clouds in the evening hours. With the ridge's passing RH will drop into the upper teens at times.
520 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Mean layer ridging has continued its retreat east into the western North Atlantic over the past 24 hours. Current temperatures are once again in the lower 80s with southerly breezes averaging 15 knots at the Reef. Mid-upper level cyclonic curvature will pivot to the east through the Yucatan Channel today and tonight, in tandem with the core cyclone moving east through the Ohio River valley. Although the low level ridge axis to our south will survive the falling heights aloft, the surface gradient will collapse. The weak surface convergence should easily overcome the low level static stability, opening the tap up to the moderate to strong instability across the Keys.
Cooler temperatures aloft will provide some instability across the Mid-South, supporting showers and thunderstorms across the region through this afternoon. MUCAPE will generally remain at or below 1000 J/kg in the TN Valley (and even lower elsewhere) and deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak beneath the upper low. Strong westerly winds south of the upper low will increase to 15-25 mph today with gusts near 35 mph at times. However, rain chances will sneak back into the TN Valley on Sunday as moisture/lift rotate around the backside of the departing trough.
533 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows multiple small scale short wave troughs in the northwest flow from the Great Basin onto the Plains. This morning a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest part of the forecast area. Through the rest of the day northwest winds will be light and highs will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Within the flow a short wave trough will develop over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon, moving east. This trough may lead to some rain development as it moves into the northwest part of the forecast area during the evening. Due to the short wave trough moving into the forecast area during the evening, am not too confident of the rainfall lasting very long due to daytime heating ending.
405 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Late night sfc analysis/regional 88D mosaic shows the cold front extending from the ArkLaMiss swwd to the Piney Woods region just outside of the forecast area to far srn TX. Once the front passes us later this morning, the weekend and early part of the new work week look quiet across the forecast area as high pressure builds over the region. Guidance has inched up a couple of degrees from previous runs with much of the area now projected to see highs in the lower 80s this afternoon.
) Significantly cooler conditions are expected over the CWA today. Much cooler tonight owing to drier conditions.
320 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge running up from the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West and cresting over southern half of Alberta. Northwest flow extends from this ridge across eastern montana and into the Dakotas. Farther west a large trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today through tonight: Ridge will move across eastern Montana generating a clear sky day followed by chinook clouds in the evening hours. With the ridge's passing RH will drop into the upper teens at times.
High pressure will become established across the region this weekend resulting in a warming trend.
The upper low is moving very slowly to the southeast, and satellite imagery currently places it along the central portions of the ND/SD border. This is in association with a weak upper low that is moving from northwest to southeast from south-central North Dakota into north- central South Dakota this morning.
748 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. A stacked low pressure system will move into the lower Ohio River Valley region today. Showers will develop late this afternoon along a warm front which will swing through the southern half of the region late in the day. Elevated instability will increase south of the warm front late this afternoon and evening as well, which could allow for an isolated thunderstorm to develop.
Dry and Slightly Cooler. Drier and cooler air has settled over West Central Texas, behind yesterday's cold front. Thus, highs today and lows tonight will be cooler than yesterday and slightly below usual late April highs and lows.
becoming more westerly after 08z with passage of weak cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, the highest coverage being from Melbourne to Poinciana south. The highest rain chances (around 60-70 percent) and threat for a few strong to severe storms across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
Strong ridging aloft and associated early season heat will be the main theme of our weather over the next 7 days. Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern side of a strong H5 ridge. This ridge will move overhead this weekend with temperatures continuing to warm.
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Steady rainfall will affect much of central Illinois today and into tonight, with isolated thunderstorms possible over southeast Illinois, as low pressure tracks near the Ohio Valley. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Classic mid latitude cyclone evolving over the central US this morning. 1004 mb low pressure was analyzed over southwest MO, coincident with a sharp 500 mb trof. This will be the main impactful weather maker as is slowly pivots east across the area today and tonight, while low pressure deepens into western KY this afternoon. Highs in these areas will reach the lower 60s. High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday, accompanied by sunshine and diminishing winds as the day progresses. Highs will rebound into the lower 60s.
A low digging south out in the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cold front through the region today. Fog will again be in the cards as clearing skies, high pressure, and recent rainfall aid in fog formation. As for Sunday, high pressure will remain in control and temperatures are expected to warm to about 5 to 10 degrees above late April normals, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
The upper level low was noted on satellite imagery spinning over the mid Mississippi river valley at mid morning. The cold front was near the Natchez Trace and will continue to move through the remainder of the CWA this afternoon. Gusty winds will develop over the remainder of the area through the afternoon with the highest gusts expected north of Interstate 20. Lows on Sunday morning will range from the low to mid 50s.
Much cooler across the area today, temps generally dropped 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit for most.
88D returns have been showing some rather impressive convection over the Gulf waters southwest of Lee county this morning which is currently affecting the Naples area, with other strong storms noted between 20-60nm west of the Lee county coast, and other strong cells noted beyond 60nm west of the central Gulf waters all of which are associated with a short wave trough passing across the region.
655 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 12Z TAFS A cold front bisects the area this morning roughly along the I-10 corridor, but with little difference in apparent weather outside of some slightly lower dewpoints and light wind shift. /issued 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ Late night sfc analysis/regional 88D mosaic shows the cold front extending from the ArkLaMiss swwd to the Piney Woods region just outside of the forecast area to far srn TX. Once the front passes us later this morning, the weekend and early part of the new work week look quiet across the forecast area as high pressure builds over the region. Guidance has inched up a couple of degrees from previous runs with much of the area now projected to see highs in the lower 80s this afternoon.
/issued 204 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ Cooler air continues to push into the area this morning in wake of a dry cold front. Otherwise high temps will fall into the U70s-M80s today, except warmer along the Rio Grande. Cooler conditions Sun AM will give way to a quick warm-up into the M80s-L90s for most areas, but it will turn breezy/windy Sun PM. A cold front Tue night will bring some brief relief from the heat on Wed, but the heat returns Thur and even moreso Fri.
Breezy conditions expected through the remainder of the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region.
Low clouds associated with wrap around moisture from departing upper low continue to slowly decrease from the west this morning.
Continuing to watch the evolution/track of the surface cyclone currently located over SW MO this morning. Latest 12Z NAM progs favor a slight shift to the north for the low track through the next 12-18 hours. Given this, the eventual surge of the warm front would be enhanced northward therefore favoring some warm sector destabilization across portions of East TN and southwestern VA/NC. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 58 44 70 49 / 30 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 56 42 66 46 / 60 50 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 56 42 67 46 / 60 40 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 54 41 61 42 / 90 60 60 10 10.