Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fairly quiet and cold currently with surface ridging over the region and northwesterly flow aloft. Temps will still be fairly cold and below seasonal averages, but a bit warmer than today and climb into the teens above zero.
252 PM MST Mon Dec 6 2021 Radars, Satellite pictures and web cameras are showing some light snow starting up in the higher mountains at this time. There are some west and northwesterly winds up to 40 MPH along the divide and the higher passes. A weak upper trough is expected to push across the CWA tonight into Tuesday. Snowfall totals will be under 6 inches in the high mountains, but at least it should actually snow. The higher valleys and higher foothills can expected a "chance" of light snow. Warm air advection is expected for the first two periods, with Tuesday highs about 3-6 C warmer than today.
The combination of warm advection and south winds will allow for much warmer temperatures for Tuesday afternoon. Another weak cold front will move through the area on Tuesday. The cold front will have little impact other than turn the winds back to the north for Tuesday night.
Cold high pressure will continue to move into the area and bring below normal air into central IL for tonight through tomorrow. The high pressure will move through quickly as a weak weather system moves into the area with a chance of light snow. The more significant chances of snow will be Tuesday evening, along and east of I-55 when the dynamics get a little stronger and the lower layers moisten up enough for the precip to be more than light flurries. After a cool Wed with temps just below normal, temps will return to warmer than normal for the rest of the week.
407 PM MST Mon Dec 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas, with cold Canadian air in place across the region. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Great Lakes region, with west-northwest flow from the Pacific NW into the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 20s across the forecast area with south to southeast winds increasing as the high shifts east of the region.
615 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: The cold front has moved south of HBG and although the -RA will continue to taper off from the nw, MVFR Cigs will continue in cntrl MS until after 03Z. /22/ This afternoon through tomorrow: The advertised cold front is currently working its way out of the southern part of our forecast area early this afternoon. For temperatures through tonight and into tomorrow, cold air advection and persistent low clouds over parts of the region will keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance. /NF/ The region will be situated under broad troughing aloft by Tuesday night.
The short term continues to feature a short wave trough dropping across our region tonight from the northwest and out of our southeast cwa early Tuesday morning. The issue will be the very dry air in the lower levels and when it becomes saturated as waa/dpva lift moves in and the snowfall starts. Northeast sd and west central mn will see the highest amounts which is still not much. Tuesday night will feature the high pressure ridge sliding away quickly with the surface pressure gradient tightening up from the west with winds turning south and increasing some.
Models are not showing much snow (around a Trace) in the Snake Plain/Eastern Highlands due to warmer temperatures this afternoon. There is a chance of snow late this afternoon into early tomorrow morning when temperatures drop to freezing to near freezing.
S/SW winds around 5-10 knots will become W/NW late tonight toward daybreak Tuesday, as a weak prefrontal trough crosses the waters.
325 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021 The short term continues to feature a short wave trough dropping across our region tonight from the northwest and out of our southeast cwa early Tuesday morning. The issue will be the very dry air in the lower levels and when it becomes saturated as waa/dpva lift moves in and the snowfall starts. Northeast sd and west central mn will see the highest amounts which is still not much. Tuesday night will feature the high pressure ridge sliding away quickly with the surface pressure gradient tightening up from the west with winds turning south and increasing some.
Expect a cold night for most locations, as the Canadian ridge of high pressure slowly moves east across the area. Expect max temps on Tue close to seasonal normals in the middle 40s, with max temperatures climbing back above normal for Wed into the low 50s. Could see sneaky strong winds ahead of the low, across the southeastern half of KS for Fri afternoon, with compression heating to the south of the low and ahead of the expected southward surging cold front, leading to much above normal temperatures across southern KS for Fri afternoon. Could see a small light precip chance of extreme southeast KS by Fri night, as a strong cold front associated with the system drop south, with much colder air pushing temperatures back towards normal.
Warm subsurface conditions may be leading to melting and refreezing of snow on roadways thus causing icy conditions. This next weather system is expected to be warmer, which will cause warmer temperatures for some, but places like Missoula and most of the valleys of northwest Montana are more likely to have inversions and cool temperatures.
1052 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Strong cold air advection behind the cold front today has brought temperatures 15-30 degrees lower than they were yesterday. While this won't relieve the dryness, it will help bring in some warmer air as highs Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
For the next couple days SFC/LL high pressure across the OH/TN valleys will be in control but another upper wave does pass late tonight into early Wednesday. This wave may kick off a few some light pcpn later tonight but it looks largely like it will affect the highland rim/Plateau, and be gone pretty quick very early Wednesday.
Weak upper low to move across South TX will generate some light precip echoes through the morning, but most of it will be virga. Much cooler temperatures have also spread into the region with readings currently in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Cold front is now well east of the Appalachians, and clouds have cleared out accordingly most everywhere. Winds will likely stay up a bit overnight before high pressure settles in tomorrow, which would favor slightly warmer temps overnight (although still cold). Late in the forecast period, clouds increase as another area of low pressure moves toward the region with lower cigs. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 39 55 34 58 / 10 30 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 51 31 58 / 10 40 30 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 34 51 30 56 / 10 30 30 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 32 45 27 55 / 10 30 40 0 10.
The cold front is well east of the area this afternoon with two thirds of the area enjoying some sun at this point. Cloud cover will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as a broad upper trough moves toward the area. There is a small chance of some precipitation Tuesday night after midnight, but overall, models show fairly shallow moisture associated with the upper trough and even though temperatures could touch the freezing mark, the dendritic growth zone looks pretty dry which would favor a few sprinkles if any precipitation makes it to the ground. High pressure will quickly slide in behind the upper trough on Wednesday, with temperatures right around normal for this time of year.
Cold front is now well east of the Appalachians, and clouds have cleared out accordingly most everywhere. Winds will likely stay up a bit overnight before high pressure settles in tomorrow, which would favor slightly warmer temps overnight (although still cold). VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure builds in. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 50 39 55 34 / 0 10 40 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 48 36 51 31 / 0 10 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 47 34 51 30 / 0 10 30 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 45 32 45 27 / 0 10 40 40 0.
Skies are clear with dew points in the low to mid 20s. Morning lows should be below freezing across most of the midsouth ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s. /issued 546 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021/ After a busy night/morning across the region a much cooler and clear night is expected across the Mid South.
334 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Discussion/Marine -Lake effect lull today; icy roads this morning Arrival of surface ridging and lowering moisture depth/inversion height today results in overall lighter intensity to lake effect snow.
An upper trough will continue to move through the region this afternoon with rain and snow tapering off by midnight. Otherwise an upper ridge builds into the region bringing light winds overnight. These light winds in combination with the added surface moisture from todays system should help bring stratus and patchy fog to the lower elevations after midnight.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the state slides east this afternoon and evening allowing winds to shift to the east to northeasterly , which combined with the available low level moisture will bring another round of fog tonight.
940 PM MST Mon Dec 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas, with cold Canadian air in place across the region. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Great Lakes region, with west-northwest flow from the Pacific NW into the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 20s across the forecast area with south to southeast winds increasing as the high shifts east of the region. Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be mainly dry with a warming trend as front along the lee of the Rockies slowly shifts northeast into the region as a warm front. The next cold front will arrive later Wednesday night and bring colder air back for late week.
101 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far will be in place early Tuesday morning with lows in teens and highs struggling to reach freezing. Now, getting into Tuesday, the morning starts dry as the high pressure moves through the area. The trough that brought the system snow into the area moves out Wednesday and ushers in a slightly warmer air mass as 850 mb temperatures rise into the negative single digits Celsius allowing highs to rise into the mid 30s.
Surface analysis early this morning depicts Canadian high pressure centered over northwest IL. Light winds underneath the high and mostly clear skies to the north have allowed temperatures to quickly drop into the lower teens. Further south, thicker cirrus clouds are present which has kept temperatures a little "warmer" with values in the upper teens to 20s. However, by this afternoon an area of frontogenesis paired with isentropic lift will act to saturate the lower-levels of the column and spark the development of snow flurries east of I-55. Upper ridging slides into the area by the middle of the week, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal values.
Some isolated to scattered showers will linger over the Gulf of Mexico waters today due to the presence of the front, but overall dry weather will return for tonight and Wednesday as the stationary front lifts north as a warm front before washing out. Temperature- wise, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will enjoy more near normal values today and tonight, before well above normal daytime high temperatures return for Wednesday in the wake of the warm front.
There may be a few remnant lake effect snow showers after first light tomorrow, but snow show activity near I-80 should wrap up by mid-morning as high pressure builds and winds shift from the southwest. Enough moist advection aloft will keep varying cloud cover through the day and limit insolation, which combined with residual CAA, with lead to temperature at or below freezing for most locations. Jet ascent and some moisture feed from this low that will move toward the mid-Atlantic will provide chances for precipitation.
Weakening cold front will move to into NE FL and stall this morning. The frontal boundary will lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight.
Model soundings have been a bit more pessimistic on CIGS, though since they've initialized with higher saturation, we can probably expect CIGS to stay MVFR at the lowest.
An upper level trof will move across the state today. In addition, this UL feature will also usher in the passage of a weak sfc trof across the forecast area through today. As a result, warmer highs in the lower to mid 50s are expected near Elkhart. The lee trof will continue to deepen through the day, resulting in breezy southerly winds.
brief upper level ridging moves over the area during the day ahead of an upper trough that moves into the area from the west.
A couple of different camps in the guidance as far as how this evolves with a decent clustering of the high-res guidance focusing any light accumulations well into SW MN with the coarser resolution deterministic guidance pinning some light QPF further west of I-29. Clouds should clear from west to east through the morning and early afternoon hours Tuesday leaving temperatures a bit warmer than today's values, although still a shade on the cool side of normal. Brief period of ridging builds for Wednesday with an uptick in southerly surface flow helping to push temperatures back into the 30s and 40s with the warmest values across central SD.
Ridging returns for mid week, with WAA and southerly flow as well. Wednesday sees temperatures in the 30s to mid 40s, with cooler temperatures in areas with potential snowpack.
Temperatures trend warmer by late week with precipitation likely over the weekend. Model soundings are well mixed to 850 mb this afternoon, with -10C there supporting highs ranging from the upper 20s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to near 40F over the Lower Susq Valley.
Lingering cloud cover, in addition to southerly winds advecting relatively warmer air into the region kept temperatures from continuing to drop overnight.
Southerly flow feeding into the low from the south keeps slightly breezy conditions around this afternoon; however, winds will be much calmer compared to the past two days. Midlevel ridging behind the wave clears out skies during the day Wednesday, and temperatures start ascending back to well above normal. Assisting this rise in temperatures is an upper level low that is slowly working over the Rocky Mountains, deepening as it does so.
429 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 High pressure was centered over central Illinois early this morning with light northeast to east winds across the area. The HREF/NAM/GFS have all been consistent in moving this trough across the Midwest today which will provide some weak ascent across the CWA today.
624 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Aviation -Lake effect lull today; icy roads this morning Arrival of surface ridging and lowering moisture depth/inversion height today results in overall lighter intensity to lake effect snow.
Therefore, decided to cancel the northern portions (WYZ 106-107) of the High Wind Warning early this morning. While the heaviest snowfall should be over, could still see additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches in the higher terrain early this morning.
Much lighter westerly wind today backs toward southwest this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure slides across the Ohio Valley. The low level flow will then undergo backing toward the southwest this afternoon/evening.
This will result in a cold night, but with the ensuing warm air advection allowing for ridge/valley temperature differences.
406 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Lower heights and stormy westerlies persist across the CONUS, with the Florida Keys on the northern fringes of mean layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean. A micro anticyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico supports gentle northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Low temperatures over the next several days will tend to be in the lower 70s, a few ticks below the nearshore SSTs.
/issued 335 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021/ High pressure remains over the Midwest this morning. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal on Wednesday with readings in the lower to mid 50s.
329 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 The front that brought us active weather yesterday will get hung up along the Gulf Coast today as high pressure builds into the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. The high won't moderate our temps much, and daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. High pressure will slide eastward tonight and head on over to the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. This will return some light southerly flow and help keep lows tonight above freezing. The trends continue to favor a drier forecast for Wednesday and temps several degrees warmer reaching the mid/upper 50s.
Digging PAC NW upper trough will force downstream ridging and associated WAA, with a weak high centered FGEN response developing over the FA today. Split flow impulse will push cold front through the region Wed night, with some light snow possible over NE WY and the northern Black Hills, any amounts will generally be an inch or less.
(Today and tonight) Cold air has settled across the area for this morning due to the recent cold frontal passage.
335 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 High pressure remains over the Midwest this morning. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal on Wednesday with readings in the lower to mid 50s.
It will be much cooler today, with scattered rain and snow showers mainly north of Interstate 40.
706 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Weak high pressure with light flow and moisture confined to the lower levels continues for much of today then slides off east tonight as a frontal boundary settles into northern FL and stalls later in the night.
An upper ridge will build in tonight and Wednesday with winds shifting to the southeast ahead of an area of low pressure. The southerly winds and the ridge will help draw up some warmer air, but low tonight and highs on Wednesday may be a little ambitious from the James Valley east given the new snow. We start the period out with ridging aloft along the mid-Missouri valley north into the Red River valley while in the low levels, a lee trough to the west results in broad southeast low level flow up the Plains States.
319 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 The forecast focus in the short term will be the slight warmup today followed by warmer temperatures on Wednesday. A closed upper low was centered over the Hudson Bay region this morning, with a broad upper trough extending across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. Upper ridging extended over the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. For today, a weak cold front will move through western NE this morning. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, in the mid and upper 30s north central and the low to mid 40s across the southwest. Tonight, upper height rises occur as a surface warm front lifts into central NE.
These winds will gradually decrease through the late morning as a weak cold front nudges into the area. Tonight, winds will quickly go light and variable as high pressure pushes into from the north. Southerly surface winds then return on Wednesday as we wee ridging move in aloft.
551 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 The forecast focus in the short term will be the slight warmup today followed by warmer temperatures on Wednesday. A closed upper low was centered over the Hudson Bay region this morning, with a broad upper trough extending across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. Upper ridging extended over the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. For today, a weak cold front will move through western NE this morning. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, in the mid and upper 30s north central and the low to mid 40s across the southwest. Tonight, upper height rises occur as a surface warm front lifts into central NE.
546 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 High pressure was centered over central Illinois early this morning with light northeast to east winds across the area. The HREF/NAM/GFS have all been consistent in moving this trough across the Midwest today which will provide some weak ascent across the CWA today.
Strong cold front currently crossing the area, giving way to much cooler temps and lower dewpoints than yesterday. Upper trough axis will be nearly centered over the Outer Banks by early Wednesday evening, before rapidly pushing offshore. Lows in the low-to-mid 30s.
438 AM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Areas of low cloud linger across the region this morning but are expected to clear through the day as high pressure moves east across the northern Plains. An upper ridge will fold across the Pacific northwest then slide into the northern Rockies today.
Temperatures for most valley locations are expected to warm above freezing today. Forecast models continue to indicate the potential for light freezing rain, which could make for particularly slick conditions during the Wednesday morning commute. Warmer air is expected to raise snow levels through the day on Wednesday as high as 4500 feet ahead of an approaching cold front. Forecast models continue to indicate a tightening pressure gradient, and with the atmosphere destabilizing, breezy winds are anticipated, especially in the higher terrain. The cold front will surge through central Idaho and western Montana Wednesday evening, quickly lowering snow levels back to valley floors.
On Wednesday, high pressure will start retreating to the east. As the high departs, return flow will start kicking in Wednesday night.
The front that brought us active weather yesterday will get hung up along the Gulf Coast today as high pressure builds into the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. The high won't moderate our temps much, and daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. High pressure will slide eastward tonight and head on over to the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. This will return some light southerly flow and help keep lows tonight above freezing. The trends continue to favor a drier forecast for Wednesday and temps several degrees warmer reaching the mid/upper 50s.
325 AM PST Tue Dec 7 2021 A departing low heading towards the southwest will result in drying conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds briefly. It seems this rain is developing under a weak wave ahead of a well defined cold front. Once that cold front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures will become notably cooler at elevation and in the valleys overnight. Low temperatures in the valleys Wednesday night are forecast to be in the lower 30's and upper teens in the mountains and east of the Cascades.
419 AM PST Tue Dec 7 2021 A low pressure system from the northwest will bring a chance for mostly light rainfall today.
Once the fog clears, expecting a pleasant, dry afternoon with partly cloudy skies and temperatures warming to the low 80s for most. There is very good agreement among the high res guidance that we will be doing this dense fog thing all over again tonight.
536 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Cold air has settled across the area for this morning due to the recent cold frontal passage.
Tonight's lows will range from the single digits below zero over the Turtle Mountains to around 10 above southwest as ridging starts to nudge in from the west. There will be two boundaries that will interact with separate impulses ejecting from the aforementioned trough. One will be a back door cold front across the north central that will dip down from Canada by Wednesday morning and afternoon. The other will be a warm front that moves into the west later in the day.
Lake-induced stratocumulus across the far north will persist this morning, otherwise high clouds will be the rule south of I-80 as high pressure crosses.