Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID/LATE AUGUST.
611 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALBEIT MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DOMINANT BUT ACTIVE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL COINCIDE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND PLENTIFUL DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ACTIVE THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
452 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
Overnight conditions should remain relatively quiet with warmer overnight lows than previous nights as dewpoints creep up toward 70. Additional convection is possible overnight Tuesday night as a cold front enters the region from the northwest.
AS TEMPERATURES REACH AND SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE LOW 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEST COAST. PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF CALIFORNIA WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COAST TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT WILL THEN ALLOW A SECOND TROF TO DROP FROM ALASKA LATER IN THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH MONTANA THIS AFTEROON PER SATE IMAGERY. UPPER TROUGH WONT BE ENOUGH TO STOP INVERSIONS FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT SO SMOKE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge now centered over SoCal/nrn Baja, a little further south than 24 hours ago, courtesy of an upper trough diving thru the nrn Rockies. Tuesday, leeside troughing on the Front Range will begin veering sfc flow, w/a westerly component sharpening up a weak dryline out west during the morning. The aforementioned trough is forecast to move thru the region, pushing the theta-e ridge into the FA for a good chance of convection Tuesday/Tuesday night.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE WRN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. IT'S THIS TROF AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEK. THE LOLVL JET OF 40 KTS CONTINUED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SUNSHINE TO MN. DRIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 40S IN MN AND THE 50S IN WI. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THE OF THE LOWS ADVANCE. AS THE LOW NEARS SRN MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
140 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING AMPLE LOW- MID CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MAINLY SHOWERS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST AREA.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF ARIZONA ALLOWING A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE STATE.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE AS WELL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
For Tuesday, an upper level trough will continue to move across the Plains pushing a cold front across western Kansas. The cold front is forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by around noon, then near Medicine Lodge around 7 pm. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s north of the cold front to near 90 in parts of south central Kansas.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP US UNDER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REACH WESTERN SD LATER THIS EVENING AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 9Z.
A SHARP UPPER TROF REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EAST OF THE TROF AND OVER SE TX AND LA THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS TROF.
141 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ND AND SOUTHERN SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE HIGHER POPS TRANSITIONING OVER TO NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
130 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DESERTS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE LOWER DESERTS SO AN ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CA THIS MORNING WILL BE SQUEEZED OFF TO THE SW THIS WEEK AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONTINENT. THE TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS BACK NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE.
311 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH MID-WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT ENE OVER TOP OF MID ATLC RIDGE NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ON THE ACCOUNT OF MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
352 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CREATING A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL S DAKOTA. INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOT GREAT HOWEVER FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW /LESS THAN 12K FT/ SO STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TOMORROW MORNING THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST AND MODELS HAVE SOME LINGER ACTIVITY AROUND THE LOW. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS GOING TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN.
649 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S SHOULD REMAIN COMMON.
130 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND BY MID WEEK. LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VA/NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1415-1425 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH AN INLAND MOVING SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARY, MAY HELP KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS AREA WILL BREAK DOWN AS TROFFING APPROACHES FROM W-NW. LEADING TO INCREASED MSTR AND INSTABILITY AS SFC PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF MIDWEEK.
342 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
252 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA WITH SHARP PV HEIGHT ANOMALY DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER NEBRASKA DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENT REGION WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BRING MILD/WINDY (VERY FALL-LIKE) CONDITIONS TO OUR CWA.
WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL A SHEAR AXIS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
WED-THU: DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WED WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON WED. AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THU WITH WARMER. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-DEVELOPS. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** THE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TUE AND WED.
A TROUGH GRAZING NORTHEAST UTAH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT AS MSLP IS ALREADY NORTHWESTERLY. STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SMOKE HAZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /ESPECIALLY THE NORTH/ AS STREAMLINES WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CALI/PACNW/IDAHO AND STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BE MORE FOCUSED IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
(Tonight and Tuesday) The upper level ridge will largely remain in control for one more 24 hour period, bringing generally dry conditions and continued hot temperatures. Otherwise, expect another warm night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) An upper trough will dive into the northern and central plains on Tuesday. This trough will be fairly deep for this time of year.
TOMORROW THE AREA WILL SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PARK COUNTY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OUT OF WYOMING AND IS LYING FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO POWDER RIVER COUNTY AND THEN TOWARD THE BAKER VICINITY. UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CURVES JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SOME DECENT DYNAMICS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
213 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
312 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE HOT HUMID AND HAZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
310 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER THIS WEEK. IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE NIGHT. OVERCAST WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND.
For Tuesday, an upper level trough will continue to move across the Plains pushing a cold front across western Kansas. The cold front is forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by around noon, then near Medicine Lodge around 7 pm. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s north of the cold front to near 90 in parts of south central Kansas. Thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday as medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough digging southeast across the Northern Rockies, then turning eastward into South Dakota and Nebraska. As this more significant system kicks out into the Central and Northern Plains, it will send a strong attendant cold front southeastward into western Kansas Tuesday afternoon providing the focus for thunderstorm development across central and portions of western Kansas.
206 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
330 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND SLOW MOVING FRONT AND THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE H5 MAP HAD A BROAD TROF FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U. AND THE RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN U. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS SOUTH OF LINCOLN WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WAS STRONGER IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT.
319 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT IN OUR NW CWA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST BUT THEN EVENTUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS MORNING. A POTENT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN INTO AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM NEB INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. TURNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FOR MID WEEK. THE STRONGEST FORCING COMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
303 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 WEAK AND OPEN UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT ARE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT OF A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. WITH THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE AREA, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STORMS WILL NOT BE FAVORED IN THIS REGION AS THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT GETS PUSHED EASTWARD BY UPSTREAM TROUGH. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER NW FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES F LOWER THAN TODAY.
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR TOMORROW WILL BE A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY NOT BLOSSOM UNTIL THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH FOR AUGUST WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
531 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP.
355 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S SHOULD REMAIN COMMON.
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP TRI IN A VFR CONDITION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WOULD EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS TO BECOME SATURATED.
252 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY.
235 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE PIEDMONT.
As synoptic scale upper low lifts north and east today, more plentiful moisture will work in from the south and east.
NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS BEGUN TO BREAK OUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S AS OF 1 PM. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE WE SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AND DEEP EAST TEXAS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
STAYED A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE HIGH SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT WHILE GOING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAXES ON TUESDAY. A WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST STAYS PUT.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/MOIST SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE.
/issued 406 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ Upper ridge will be displaced to the west as an upper trough moving across the NW digs down across the central plains. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures.
SW TROUGH OVR SRN IL IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. FVRBL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION UNDER DECENT BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING YIELDING ISOLD-SCT STORMS ACRS CWA BUT FAR BTR ECHO COVERAGE NOTED WWD FM CNTRL-NE IL WITHIN DEEPER THETA-E RIDGING AND THROUGH SW IN ALG NE ARC OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC VERTICAL MOTION. OTRWS TRUNCATED SHRA MENTION OVERNIGHT TO WRN AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO LL THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE ROBUST CHANNEL OF LL FLW/MASS FLUX SITUATED AHD OF SFC FNTL ZONE.
SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING CLOSE TO THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING /EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MOST OF THIS PCPN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT LEAVING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON IS RIDGING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE REGION. WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION.
219 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INLAND AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR PRICE COUNTY AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORCING FROM THE LOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES IN NW WISCONSIN.
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD FINALLY END THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF TROY NORTHWARD TO ALEXANDER CITY AND JUST WEST OF ATLANTA. WEST OF THE TO THE LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S.
925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C SUPPORT INHERITED HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.