Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Early morning water vapor as of 2 am was showing a vigorous mid- level trough pushing into the Dakotas. This was pushing a surface cold front into MN. That cold front continues to sag southeastward into the area through this afternoon with most models showing cap eventually eroding for what looks to be fairly explosive convective development by early evening. Cooler/dry conditions for Friday night with mostly clear skies.
The large upper level high centered over the Four Corners region will have ongoing influence across western Kansas. The forecast timing of this cold front has slowed down enough such that there is now high confidence in widespread 102-105F highs Friday.
Weak high pressure will remain in place through the day today before amplifying over the weekend.
519 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will be centered over the region through tonight before drifting east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Friday.
Frontal boundary will aid in lessening the impacts of the dominant 594 mb high pressure across the southern half of the American West as it slowly erodes to the south. Daytime temperatures will fairly similar albeit a few degrees cooler to last couple days with low to middle 90s east of the Laramie Range and middle 80s to low 90s to the west.
538 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot temperatures continue to be the main story today, with highs expected to reach into the mid 90s across southern and central OK and the low 100s for northern and western OK. For now the chances appear to be very low given the continued influence of upper ridging and warm mid-level temperatures and capped PoPs around 10% or less.
Temperatures return to near normal today as a deamplifying ridge over the Plains folds into the Great Lakes region this morning. Thermal ridge axis remains connected to the 596 dam high sitting over the desert Southwest as it folds through SE MI drawing a piece of the 20-30C 850mb airmass eastward into the mid-Mississippi valley. Minimal moisture accompanies this ridge with dewpoints only rising into the upper 40s/low 50s, so pleasant conditions hold on for one last day. This trough further flattens the ridge displacing it toward the east coast allowing height falls to begin working into lower MI. This trend is likely the result of a slower southeastward drift of the Pacific NW trough through northern Ontario.
A low level ridge over the Southeast States will provide one more day of lower humidity values. Temperatures will be warmer today as the upper trof that brought the cooler temperatures the past few days will shift into the Atlantic. Many areas will experience highs in the lower 90s today with light northeast winds.
Aloft, our region is within NNW flow in the mid and upper levels as we sit between a departing trough to our east and a ridge to our west. East of I-65, temps are forecast to bottom out in the low 60s. Friday continues to look like one of the warmest days of the upcoming 7 day forecast due to nearby upper level ridging and very warm temperatures aloft.
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area again today, with high pressure aloft dominating.
The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center continues to have a high chance of tropical cyclone development, with a possible tropical or subtropical depression to form late tonight or Friday as the low moves across the western Gulf.
Another quiet day expected across the area as high pressure at the surface continues its influence. Otherwise should see warmer temperatures today with FEW-SCT diurnal CU through the afternoon and light winds. High pressure is resulting in a clear sky and VFR conditions at all sites through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 65 92 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 63 90 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 63 90 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 53 88 61 87 / 0 0 10 10 20.
The ridge of high pressure expected to remain near the four corners region through tonight with a bit stronger westerly flow near the northern border areas of Colorado. In terms of moisture, there is enough moisture rotating around the periphery of the high for isolated showers and thunderstorms again later this afternoon. A cold front will drop across the plains early Friday, bringing some relief as there should be about a 10 degree F drop in surface temperatures. There's not much change aloft, so between the low level cooling and a bit more moisture leading to more cloud cover things may not be that much more favorable for storms.
922 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure over the eastern United States will move southeast today through Friday.
639 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Another beautiful day today with high pressure overhead and mostly sunny skies.
733 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather into the first half of the weekend.
There is also a signal for a few storms to become strong to severe given the high instability and wind shear for storm organization. 12Z SGF sounding showed some capping with a conv temp of 94F and warming aloft, therefore there is some question if the MCV can assist with enough lift for thunderstorm development today, especially as warmer mid level temps continue to move in during the day. For tonight, expect partly cloud skies with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Meanwhile, some mid level moisture trapped under a strong ridge of high pressure will result in isolated dry thunderstorms today and Friday, as well as a noticable increase in cloud cover.
327 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Near-zonal westerly flow is expected today across the northern Great Plains, just north of a strong upper high across the southwestern CONUS.
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 As the upper ridge has flattened, there are some ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central SD early this morning associated with weak perturbations in the upper flow. Temperatures will be a bit cooler under the flattened ridge, but will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average both today and Friday. An upper trough will trail into South Dakota and west central MN on Friday. The winds will become breezy across the northern tier as the jet strengthens aloft and the thermal gradient tightens in the upper trough.
/issued 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will begin shifting east today. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue to prevail through the end of the week as the Mid-South becomes sandwiched between a cold front that will be sinking south across Missouri and the potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
620 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A few showers with isolated thunder have developed just south of the ND/SD border, near Mobridge. As of early this morning, the cold front was barely lingering in the far southeast FA. Drier air has pushed into the FA behind the cold front, with the dewpoint at 61F at Wadena and 46F at Rolla. Despite the cold front passage, looking at fairly neutral 850mb temperature advection.
A weak mid level impulse moving west over our area along with solar heating may provide the needed forcing to overcome the subsidence under the nearby Subtropical Ridge to generate a few showers and thunderstorms over parts of our area this afternoon.
Skies will remain clear through the short term due to the northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Afternoon high temperatures as high as 105 possible today, especially for the northern half of the CWA seeing more of the effects of the high pressure center at the surface nearly due west into east central Colorado. After another warm morning start in the upper 60s to low 70s, another hot and breezy Friday is in store as temperatures push once again into the low triple digits. Models are not having the highs as much as Thursday but with only a degree or two difference, hot is hot at this point.
Drier air in the low and mid levels will allow VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of today into tonight. /issued 1032 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/ Drier air in the low and mid levels has moved into the forecast area.
Another degree or two of warmth is likely, before cooler temperatures commence in the late afternoon and evening. An area of high pressure that brought the cooler conditions to the Tennessee Valley was moving off of the Mid Atlantic coast. The ridge extending somewhat to the west has produced light/variable winds across the area. High temperatures should rise into the lower 90s with winds becoming southerly in the 5 mph range.
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Another beautiful day today with high pressure overhead and mostly sunny skies.
Similar conditions are expected on Friday, but it will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
(This evening through Friday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Friday, with high pressure aloft dominating. (Friday night through next Thursday) The upper level high centered over the Four Corners region continues to dominate our weather pattern and will continue to do so through the weekend.
As the upper ridge has flattened, there are some ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central SD early this morning associated with weak perturbations in the upper flow. Temperatures will be a bit cooler under the flattened ridge, but will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average both today and Friday. An upper trough will trail into South Dakota and west central MN on Friday. The winds will become breezy across the northern tier as the jet strengthens aloft and the thermal gradient tightens in the upper trough.
Winds become light and variable with lows dropping into the low 60s in the Bluegrass while areas to the west only see the mid 60s.
Northwest flow aloft continues to promote a drier airmass today while a northern stream disturbance drifting across southern Canada and the northern plains suppresses the ridge axis to the east across the Great Lakes and midwest. Dry weather is expected underneath increasing heights and high pressure at the surface tonight and again on Friday. Lows tonight will likely be slightly warmer than last night although some locations will likely see below normal temperatures overnight. Highs on Friday will be several degrees warmer than today as highs approach the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area.
Until the disturbance's closest approach, ridging will have the predominant influence over conditions across the Ark-La-Tex, suppressing chances of precipitation outside of our southernmost zones. With that said, this moisture will stay south of the I-20 corridor for the night, keeping lows in the low 70s.
Friday sees another cold front push across the region, associated with a clipper type system. A broad trough pattern with a weak warm front/cold front type pattern looks to set up this weekend.
1120 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Near-zonal westerly flow is expected today across the northern Great Plains, just north of a strong upper high across the southwestern CONUS.
Upper-level energy will spread east southeast into the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, and that will suppress the upper ridge over the Quad State. Humidity will also be on the increase with the highest dewpoints (low-mid 70s) also in the northwest.
To start the period, broad mid-level ridging should exist over the southwest CONUS, with low intensity troffing over the northern tier of the CONUS.
Highs this afternoon are still on track to reach the upper 80s with slightly cooler temperatures expected in the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions of Kentucky. Aloft, our region is within NNW flow in the mid and upper levels as we sit between a departing trough to our east and a ridge to our west. East of I-65, temps are forecast to bottom out in the low 60s. Friday continues to look like one of the warmest days of the upcoming 7 day forecast due to nearby upper level ridging and very warm temperatures aloft.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s. Ridge axis lifts back north across the area tomorrow, with rain chances decreasing, especially along the coast.
A weak cold front is passing through the Twin Cities as I write, but the main change with the FROPA is a shift in the winds to the northwest.
1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area again today, with high pressure aloft dominating.
An upper level ridge over the southwest US will expand northward over the region today and Friday, bringing about 10 degrees of warming today and another 5-10 degrees of warming on Friday.
With high pressure building over the region, afternoon temperatures will continue the warming trend, with mid 80s to lower 90s.
There have been some indications of two potential waves of severe weather along the cold frontal boundary, the first wave initiating around 5-7pm in western Wisconsin where inhibition is less and synoptic upper level forcing more pronounced. Early morning water vapor as of 2 am was showing a vigorous mid- level trough pushing into the Dakotas. This was pushing a surface cold front into MN. That cold front continues to sag southeastward into the area through this afternoon with most models showing cap eventually eroding for what looks to be fairly explosive convective development by early evening. Cooler/dry conditions for Friday night with mostly clear skies.
A few showers with isolated thunder have developed just south of the ND/SD border, near Mobridge. As of early this morning, the cold front was barely lingering in the far southeast FA. Drier air has pushed into the FA behind the cold front, with the dewpoint at 61F at Wadena and 46F at Rolla. Despite the cold front passage, looking at fairly neutral 850mb temperature advection.
Temps and humidity are on the way up today with temperatures already in the mid 70 to mid 80s at this hour, with dewpoints now in the low to mid 60s across our western two-thirds.
Another quiet day expected across the area as high pressure at the surface continues its influence. Otherwise should see warmer temperatures today with FEW-SCT diurnal CU through the afternoon and light winds. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and light winds through the period with VFR prevailing. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 90 68 88 70 / 0 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 63 90 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 88 61 87 67 / 0 10 10 20 20.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 90s across the area with afternoon highs today expected to range from the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 towards the Rio Grande with middle 90s for the remainder of the CWA. Quiet weather will continue tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s for most locations. Another dry day is expected tomorrow with slightly cooler highs as the upper ridge breaks down a bit further. Lows tomorrow night will also be slightly cooler across the region.
Dangerously hot conditions will continue across the area through the weekend as a large area of high pressure remains over the region. Mid-level moisture moving around the ridge will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high Sierra through Friday.
1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A flattening ridge aloft is helping to keep the radar quiet across central and western Nebraska with a lazy front lingering just off to our southeast. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler today so don't expect the same blistering heat as yesterday, but still triple digits for Chase, Hayes, Frontier, and mainly southeastern Custer where a heat advisory will remain in place through this afternoon. Upper trof swings by to our north on Friday but ridging over the western US will help keep us capped so will continue with the dry forecast to close out the workweek as temperatures remain above normal.
High pressure will remain in place through tonight leading to one last night of "cooler" and lest sticky conditions but that will quickly change as the area of low pressure located over the southern Gulf will continue its steady march northward towards the Louisiana coast on Friday. Highs on Friday will be "cooler" with highs along and south of highway 84 in the low to mid 80s and near 90 north of highway 84.
Otherwise, hot, above average temperatures will continue again on Friday as the Southern Plains remains on the eastern periphery of an intense, ~596 dam mid-level ridge (centered across the Four Corners). No significant change in temperatures are forecast with highs ranging from the low 90s across southeast Oklahoma to the low 100s deg F across north central Oklahoma.
While afternoon highs look to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, expect dewpoints to be notably cooler, with values in the 40s and 50s.
Moisture will begin to quickly surge northward by Friday afternoon with the passage of a warm front.
1032 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Drier air in the low and mid levels has moved into the forecast area.
231 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure continues to build off towards the eastern seaboard as a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the Laramie Range. Models have continued to trend towards some relief from the record breaking heat as the blocking pattern degrades towards zonal to northwest flow.
Upper level analysis shows high pressure across the Four Corners region, with near zonal flow from the Pacific NW through the Northern Plains. Weak disturbances are rotating around the high pressure system, with clouds and a few showers and storms accompanying them. Skies are mostly sunny across much of our area this afternoon with temps now in the 80s across the plains, 70s over the higher Black Hills. Very warm conditions will continue through the first part of the weekend as ridging builds back some across the Rockies over the next couple of days.
The persistent ridge will flatten a bit more today, with mid-level flow becoming westerly this afternoon.
As of 19Z, a poorly defined cold front stretched from Polk and St. Very large hail will be a threat with any discrete cells early on given the high NCAPE values, morphing into a damaging wind threat as we head into the overnight hours.
High pressure is forecast to gradually shift east and winds will veer south allowing humidity levels to gradually increase tomorrow and this weekend. The Mid-South will remain in between two systems: the potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front that will sink to the south across Missouri. According to the National Hurricane Central, the broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf, will become a tropical or subtropical depression tonight or early Friday.
It is worth noting that not all the high res models have storms for tonight.
1106 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A weak stationary front will linger north of central Florida today, with the subtropical ridge axis near to just north of Lake Okeechobee. Afternoon highs forecast to reach the upper 80s, with a few spots possibly into the low 90s.
High pressure and light northerly winds continue keeping clear skies and drier air over the area. This evening winds will become light and variable with sunset as the high shifts to the coast with weak moisture return over the CSRA and far southern Midlands toward daybreak. Overnight lows will again be below normal with readings in the low to mid 60s. The trough will be well to our east by Friday morning with a wide pressure gradient across the southeast. This, accompanied by dry high pressure, will allow for light winds during the day and our temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than Thursday's. A low level jet will keep us well mixed overnight leading to warmer overnight temperatures.
225 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A small scale ridge sliding into the area from zonal flow will keep the forecast area dry through Friday night.
1156 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will be centered over the region through tonight before drifting east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Friday.
224 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Clear skies abound again this afternoon as the upper high remains centered in essentially the same position as it has been all week. Further flattening of the ridge will be a slow process, however, with guidance in agreement that anticyclonic upper flow will continue over the western CONUS throughout the short term period. The increased zonal extent of the ridge axis will keep upper level flow mainly easterly over the CWA through Friday morning, although at a magnitude below 20kt and with minimal practical effect on surface weather. However, this will have little impact on sensible weather locally as the low to midlevels will continue to warm and and will remain largely dry. A stagnant upper level ridge near the four corners will slide to the southwest this weekend.
High pressure and light northerly winds continue keeping clear skies and drier air over the area. This evening winds will become light and variable with sunset as the high shifts to the coast with weak moisture return over the CSRA and far southern Midlands toward daybreak. Overnight lows will again be below normal with readings in the low to mid 60s.
159 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 The trough which has been situated along the east coast is finally progressing towards the east. As this moves to the east, and the area of low pressure in the western Gulf lifts northward, the deep layer moisture swath which has been overhead lifts to the north, and high pressure will build in from the Atlantic.
122 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather into the first half of the weekend.
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will be centered over the region through tonight before drifting east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Friday.
Low pressure was located over northeastern Manitoba this afternoon with a cold front trailing across northwestern Ontario to western Lake Superior, northwest Wisconsin and into southwestern Minnesota. A few showers were developing from the Brainerd Lakes area into northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and this trend is expected to continue into early evening until the cold front clears the area.
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 (This evening through Friday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Friday, with high pressure aloft dominating. (Friday night through next Thursday) The upper level high centered over the Four Corners region continues to dominate our weather pattern and will continue to do so through the weekend.
A mid-level ridge has built just far enough westward to bring in weak anticylonic flow and large-scale subsidence. In addition, gradient flow has increased as expected, between the Atlantic high pressure cell and a slowly organizing subtropical gyre over the western Gulf of Mexico ("Potential Tropical Cyclone Three").
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a weak ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. The mid level ridge will slowly weaken over our region while the low in the Gulf tracks northward and brings a surge of moisture leading to the chance for rain over our southeast most zones by noon. For tonight though, the ridging aloft to our west and the surface ridging across our CWA will remain dominant and lead to another night of slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Friday the increase in cloud cover and rain chances will hold temperatures slightly cooler than normal in our south while near normal temperatures in the lower 90s are reached elsewhere.
Dry conditions will prevail, along with further warming into Friday, as an upper ridge to our south builds northward.
It was another hot and humid afternoon across the area with early afternoon temps in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 100-105F. A warm and muggy night is in store with most locations only dropping into the lower 70s for lows. This weekend is looking hot and dry as the area remains well south of a cold front.
This all occurring on the edge of the upper ridge centered over the Great Basin area into the central Rockies.
In other news, NHC has began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 in the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.