Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will move over the area midday Saturday with light winds.
1106 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 The low CIGs and patchy low VIS are improving over time late this morning. as the warm front lifts north of the state by this afternoon. At the sfc, a warm front will advance north across the state today bringing Td values in excess of 60 F to all but northwest AR. Beneath the SW flow aloft will be a nearly stationary cold front oriented in a similar fashion across the state. Based on the slower movement of the main H500 trough and arctic airmass, the severe threat on Saturday may be a bit higher than previously thought. The cold front will begin to progress into NW AR around midday Saturday and exit to the southeast by midnight.
Meanwhile, high pressure to our west stretching over the area will continue pushing southerly winds and enough moisture to allow low clouds and fog to develop once again tonight.
At the upper levels, long- wave trough is situated over the Rocky Mountains, and will slide east through the central plains over the weekend.
Next weather-maker is a positively tilted trough off to the west entering the northern Rockies this morning. Cold front this morning is just clearing the tri-cities and will continue south this morning. As the trough approaches from the west, 300-500 mb Divergent Q vectors indicate an increase in synoptic lift tonight and lasting through Saturday evening.
A trough digging just to our east is causing clouds as well as light showers to form over the mountains today.
Increased low-level warm air advection with the low approaching this afternoon, has resulted in snow levels rising up to around 6500-7000 feet over northern Arizona and 7500-8500 feet over central Arizona. As a result, mainly areas of rain are expected this afternoon aside from the highest elevations. Better upper-level forcing and moisture comes later this evening and overnight, as the longwave trough axis propagates through Arizona. Rime icing will also remain a possibility over the higher terrain. As the trough moves eastward, cold and dry northwest flow ensues in its wake. Very cold temperatures are expected Saturday night, with much of the high of the high terrain in the single digits to near 0, and lower 30s to lower 20s across the lower elevations. Heights being to gradually rise for the start of the week with weak ridging moving into the southwest.
234 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Visible satellite is depicting clear skies along the island chain this afternoon, which has helped temperatures reach the lower 80s. Water vapor imagery highlights sinking air across the area, as ridging in the Western Atlantic still has a tight grip on us. Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected over the next few days, as ridging continues to dominate the region. The reign of this ridging will finally be brought to an end by an approaching frontal boundary.
With skies beginning to clear aloft as high pressure builds over the region, weâre expecting temperatures to plummet tonight. The fly in the ointment is the potential for some locations to hang onto residual moisture stuck in the low levels as shown on the visible satellite loop this afternoon.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 62 76 55 57 / 60 60 40 90 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 60 76 56 57 / 40 60 50 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 66 59 74 53 55 / 30 60 50 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 54 75 55 57 / 20 70 70 90 70.
An upper trough will continue the snow showers today, with most of the activity expected across southern areas and in central Idaho.
Warm front will lift north through KCHA and KTYS between 04z and 08z tonight, with south winds filtering in at that time. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 76 55 57 28 / 80 70 90 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 76 56 57 26 / 90 70 90 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 59 74 53 55 27 / 90 80 90 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 75 55 57 26 / 80 60 90 70 70.
Northern sites such as CLL and UTS will see some scattered showers ahead of the approaching cold front early tomorrow morning around 06Z, but showers should move out around 12Z.
1255 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Cloudy and warmer conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
340 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Northern stream energy diving southeastward through western Canada this afternoon will carve out a trough across the Rockies tonight. At the same time a closed upper low will cross northern Baja and head for the Southern Plains late tonight, with the two features phasing together Saturday across the Central and Southern Plains.
An upper trough moving through Saturday the region will have most of the vorticity well to our south, so precip will stay out of our area. Only changes we will experience are a re-enforcing cold front and some chances for snow.
1028 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Deep layer ridging is still in control of the region this morning. Temperatures are already near 80 degrees this morning and are expected to creep into the lower 80s this afternoon. From synopsis, Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail today, as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s over much of the area, and will again be close to record highs for some locations today. May see some lingering IFR/MVFR cigs continue through 18-19Z, especially near to north of KMCO, like yesterday as daytime heating continues to slowly erode this low cloud deck.
As such, added patchy freezing fog to most valley locations for tonight.
(Today and tonight) An active weather pattern is expected across west central Texas through tonight as a longwave trough starts to push through the Four Corners region. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow at the mid to high levels will increase moisture. A closed upper low currently over Baja California this morning will quickly get absorbed into the mid-level flow and provide some "quick- hitting" dynamics tonight. As a result, rain chances will be the highest overnight, mainly for our northern counties. A strong cold front will track through the region Saturday afternoon, bringing much colder temperatures and some potential for a few light showers mainly across the Big Country. Temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to dip into the lower to mid 40s behind the front.
The trough axis will be oriented over eastern Utah by Saturday morning and shift east of the Continental Divide during the afternoon hours ushering in much colder air across the forecast area.
Trends look on track for yet another afternoon of well-above temperatures, with highs ranging from the low 70s north to upper 70s south, possibly hitting or just exceeding 80 degrees at a few sites.
RAP Mesoanalysis shows our broad trough axis centered over Utah/Nevada and this trough axis will continue to push eastward tonight and tomorrow morning. 10-20kt in the lowest 1km AGL. Snowfall amounts in most locations haven't changed much, but we did bump up totals slightly for the lower foothills and immediate adjacent plains. Winds will begin to pick up during the afternoon across the high country with wind chills well below zero.
1106 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 (Today and tonight) An active weather pattern is expected across west central Texas through tonight as a longwave trough starts to push through the Four Corners region. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow at the mid to high levels will increase moisture. A closed upper low currently over Baja California this morning will quickly get absorbed into the mid-level flow and provide some "quick- hitting" dynamics tonight. As a result, rain chances will be the highest overnight, mainly for our northern counties.
While winds are expected to be pretty light across southwestern North Dakota tonight with high pressure passing near the area (previously under an advisory), an upgrade to a warning seemed warranted since the high pressure will also cause temperatures to cool further, and any wind with the temperatures expected tonight makes a big difference. Temperatures will begin to warm some New Years Day, although still very cold, as upper level troughing and low pressure begins to pull away from the region.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level low currently over Baja California will weaken and eject northeast this evening, eventually tracking across New Mexico Saturday morning. The much advertised strong cold front will move into the Big Country Saturday afternoon, with a sharp temperature drop expected behind the front, along with gusty north winds of 15 to 20 mph. A strong cold front will track through the region Saturday afternoon, bringing much colder temperatures and some potential for a few light showers mainly across the Big Country. Temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to dip into the lower to mid 40s behind the front.
The Northern Rockies continue to be influenced by a weak upper level low pressure system. A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies this weekend. This ridge will give the region a respite in precipitation, but cold air will linger.
At the same time south of a warm front located across southeast Oklahoma, increasing low level moisture will result in sufficient instability to go along with strong wind fields to support some strong to severe convection, with strong wind gusts and some large hail the primary hazards. Meanwhile farther north, a strong cold front will be entering northwest Oklahoma. As the cold air deepens, we expect to see a transition of potential precip type, including freezing rain, sleet and snow. Main upper trough will move across the area Saturday evening.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL KS. WITH 120KT 500MB WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW. AND WITH A 150+KT UPPER-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/NEB AND MO/IA BORDERS. AND WITH STRONG FLOW BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE LOW THROUGH KBIE/KLNK/KTQE. SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WERE IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE LOW WERE PRODUCING RAIN AND SLEET SHOWERS FROM AROUND KLNK TO KOMA TO KHNR AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE WARMER/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS TEMPERATURES LINGER ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS EVENING. UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
THE LARGE AREA OF WAA/TROWAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.
POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH NOTED PV ANOMALY IN THE CORE CONTINUES TO AFFECT IA THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSIVE 170KT JET LEADING THE WAY. A LOW STATIC STABILITY BURST OF PRECIP MAY OCCUR NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE KS/NE/IA NEIGHBORING BORDERS. THUS EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES SERN IA.
A few patches of freezing fog are likely in valley locations by morning as a ridge of high pressure and its stable air settle over the region.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS CAA DEVELOPS. H925 TEMPS AT 8C-10C AND H85 TEMPS AT 2C-5C WOULD SUGGEST EVEN COOLER THAN WHAT MODELS ARE OUTPUTTING. DID CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A COOLER NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS MUCH HIGH PRESSURES RESTS OVERHEAD.
334 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 322 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW.
THE MAIN WX MAP FEATURES WERE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MID TN.
AFTER THAT EXPECTED A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SQUALLINE DEVELOPING WITH A FEW STORMS SEVERE MAINLY POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WEST OF MCB TO NEAR LFT IS NOT MOVING AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY. TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED.
1143 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH HAS TURNED POST-FRONTAL OVERNIGHT WINDS TO BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE SAT/SSF AREAS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE CAMERAS ARE SHOWING ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN AN EAST COAST RIDGE. AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA. MUCH OF MID TN WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S. BUT MOST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH A LINE OF +TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SE FROM OREGON INTO NEVADA NOT AFFECTING WX IN OUR CWA.
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 COMPACT DEEP CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AT KGUY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. NOW THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER ON THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF COLORADO AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALL FLURRIES SHOULD END AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA.
BUT WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING A RESURGENCE IN THE WINDS OVER THAT AREA AS THE LOW MOVES BY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN UNTIL THE EXITING OF THE SYSTEM AND FOLLOWING RIDGING HELP BRING DECREASING CLOUDS FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MORE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING PERSISTING MORE OR LESS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE FREQUENT SHORT WAVES WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.
SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON WEDNESDAY.
Mature cyclone near Omaha accelerating away from SW KS. Northern areas on the snowpack will fail to reach freezing Wednesday afternoon. 00z NAM and GFS soundings late day continues to support highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. A few upper 30s will be possible near the Oklahoma border while to coolest highs will be located where the higher snowfall is expected.
WEAK WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTY TODAY.
LOOK FOR THIS TO MOVE BACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN AN EAST COAST RIDGE. AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA. MUCH OF MID TN WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S.
THOUGH MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER EAST. RESULTING TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE LAKES WILL SHUNT UNSTABLE LL THETA-E RIDGE SWWD UNDER PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE CNTRD ACRS E TX. HWVR RESPITE FM WET PATTN LIKELY FLEETING AS SRN PLAINS RIDGE BLDS BACK NORTH AGAIN W/EWD FOLDING THETA-E RIDGE XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF AT TIMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF AMPLIFYING WRN US TROUGHING. OTRWS VRY WARM TEMPS XPCD TO MANIFEST UNDERNEATH STEADILY NWD BLDG UPR RIDGE AXIS AND NO DOUBT HOT.
An upper level trough will pass overhead Wednesday but available moisture will be decreasing, thus shower and thunderstorm activity will be primarily focused from southern Idaho County eastward into Southwest Montana.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CLAUDETTE MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
403 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TX WILL EXTEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WHERE DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE LESS. EARLY MORNING RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS THE GREATEST INFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS OVER THE COMING WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ENVELOPS THE WESTERN STATES.
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN.
A SFC TROF EXTENDED FROM NE-SW ACROSS IA/KS THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY WEAK HIGH PRES WAS OVER WRN NEB. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN STATES TODAY.
A 594 DM HIGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER TX BUT THE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDED NWD FROM THE HIGH HAD FLATTENED A BIT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
/ISSUED 622 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/ MAIN FORECAST FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DRY 500 MB RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AS TROUGH APPROACHES BRINGING JET ENERGY AND AIDING TO INDUCE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VEERING PROFILES. ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL DESPITE HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER. COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANGE IN AIRMASS. READILY SEEN BY THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPING SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SHARP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS AND BY WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CURTAIL SOME OF THE MOISTURE COMING INLAND.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK.
1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPR HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT OVR CENTRAL TX TODAY. AREAS OVR AND NR THE MTNS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS EVENING. ON TUE THE UPR HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVR ERN TX AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
FEATURING A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE LOW 60S.
S/W RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST BOTH THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY LATE.
EXPANSIVE SUBSIDENCE HAS FOLLOWED DEPARTING GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE WITH CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES OVER SD AND MN ARE DROPPING INTO AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NUDGED WEDNESDAY HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ON THE 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS DO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS KLIT AND KADF.
628 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT STILL RATHER WARM. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AREA REMAINS UNDER A SW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD AND DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS INLAND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS WEDNESDAY EVENING SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END.