Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Once more, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible, along with a tornado or two as effective shear will be favorable at the low to mid-levels. Temps for the period will be on the warm side of normal to slightly above with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed through the weekend and lows generally in the low 60s with a few upper 50s in the climatologically cool spots. LLWS is expected during the overnight hours ahead of an upper low and cold front.
The NBM shows dewpoints on the low end of the first standard deviation holding around 60 degrees across north central KS. So with the 03Z RAP forecast being more than one standard deviation from the mean, chances that it is a better solution are on the low side. 07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge centered over the NM/CO boarder with nearly meridional flow over the central plains. Surface ridging had moving into north central KS with calm winds being reported by more sites over the last few hours.
Clouds and isolated shower activity will dissipate this morning with an upper low moving out of the area.
526 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT to central WY. Pressure falls ahead of trough supporting gusty southerly winds at times over northeast WY/northern slopes of the Black Hills. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the northern Plains with upper low spinning over WA. Effect of upper low main short-term forecast.
While high pressure will concurrently control the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, a col aloft will permit moisture to clockwisely round the south side of another mid-level ridge and associated high pressure over the East Gulf. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s east (85 to 90 at the beaches) to a few to several degrees above the century mark out west (especially Starr and Zapata Counties).
With the earlier start and end to convection, temperatures are likely to feel warmer near the coast.
557 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will trend even hotter as upper ridging centered over the 4 corners expands and pushes slowly east. Only in the river valleys along I-10 and Northwest Hill Country will temperatures fall into the lower 70s.
High pressure was located over the Central Plains into the Western Great Lakes region leading to clear skies and light winds locally. An area of high pressure will remain over the region today leading to sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid/upper 80s. Tuesday Breezy and hot conditions are expected as southerly winds increase, gusting between 20 to 30 mph, on the northwest periphery of high pressure situated in the Ohio Valley.
502 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 A low pressure system has begun to track over the Pacific Northwest and will eventually move through the Northern Rockies. This will flatten the ridge enough to allow for more westerly flow. Although the lowest chances will be around the Four Corners. Some of the lower valleys and areas that manage to avoid cloud cover and precip will see highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow the low pressure tracks over the Northern Plains, which keeps the high to our south. Persistent high pressure continues its reign on the west slope this week.
(Rest of Today) The initial line of showers and storms that developed ahead of a cold front over the Mid South last night has largely fallen apart as it pushed southeast into the Tennessee Valley early this morning. Additional support will be provided by a deepening mid/upper trough that will pivots southeastward into the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest analysis shows a deepening upper level trough to our west, with the axis cutting across the Mid-Mississippi valley. At the surface, low pressure is over northern OH with a slow moving frontal boundary stretching back to the SW over northern portions of the OH valley and back into the Mid-Mississippi valley. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will slowly swing eastward today with the trough axis reaching central KY this evening and advancing to the Appalachians during the day on Tuesday. This, combined with the trough axis expected to be over the Appalachians, will touch off some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains through early evening, while areas north of the Mountain Parkway will likely remain dry. We'll see a return of warmer temps on Tuesday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s.
Showers are ongoing this morning across the region in association with a passing cold front and approaching upper level trough. As expected, the more widespread precipitation has been in northwest Montana, closest to the low pressure center. Temperatures will be much cooler today and tonight behind this cold front. Beginning on Tuesday, the upper level flow will turn more zonal with a ridge beginning to build by midweek. With the ridge, temperatures will quickly jump back above seasonal averages.
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 As an upper level trof moves across the region today, the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish from northwest to southeast.
/Issued 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ A long wave trough near the Great lakes will lift northeast to northern New England by this evening before the flow will split with short wave slowly moving across eastern TN into the Carolinas tomorrow. This system will push a cold front just north of northern Georgia by this evening where it will hang up and begin to wash out. High pressure should begin building in from the west for the weekend. A lee trough will likely persist for much of the week.
VCTS was mentioned at LFT and ARA 18Z through 00Z to account for seabreeze and/or diurnal pop-up showers and storms along the upper trof axis.
An associated ridge extends west southwestward, with the ridge axis penetrating the central Florida Peninsula. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the central North Atlantic will continue to build westward towards the Florida Peninsula.
504 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 A low pressure system continues to pull away from the southern terminals which will end all sporadic rain chances, and will result decreasing cloud coverage through the late morning and early afternoon. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft late this morning and afternoon Lingering showers with weak deformation zone around exiting low pressure will end early this morning as this low shifts east through southeast Ontario and drier low level air filters into the region on light northwest winds in its wake.
545 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area as a low pressure system lifts across the Great Lakes.
Today: By sunrise, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be exiting north Idaho as the center of a compact upper low pivots into northwest Montana. Scattered showers wrapping around the low are progged by the NAM, GFS, and several members of the HREF along the Canadian border from Okanogan county to far north Idaho this morning. Breezy west or southwest winds will develop early in the day in response to the departing upper low. High temperatures in north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s today while readings in central Washington and the L-C Valley will be in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight and Tuesday: A warm high pressure ridge will quickly rebound over the Pacific Northwest tonight.
High pressure to the S/SW of the area will keep winds out of the W/NW today and allow for some weak moisture advection and dewpoints could nudge a few degrees higher than current values. Stumpf (Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022) Today through Tuesday: Surface ridging will drop south of the area today. This is when gusty south and southwest winds amp up with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure in the northern Plains. The warmest day will be Tuesday ahead of the cold front when that thermal ridge takes hold bringing in the warm axis of 925 temps. Still looking at a shot of a few storms Tuesday night due to impressive trough swing through.
Like mentioned a number of times in the past few days, a decent upper trof will track across ND through Tuesday. Ahead of the trof a very warm EML advects across the forecast area today and tonight, with H7 temps pushing +16C or even higher depending upon the model you look at. The extended is dominated by a not untypical upper high that remains situated across the southern tier of the country, with transient weak systems that move across the norther tier of the country. Also for tnt, wind shear will be heightened at most terminals as strong winds develop out ahead of a cold front.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An oppressive upper ridge remains situated to the NW of TX which is typically the mid-summer pattern that is capable of bringing some of the most extreme heat. While our 24 hour trend monitoring hasn't been very consistent from one location to the next, we'd rather wait until the highs of the day are reached so that the later shifts can assess the best choice of areas for the Excessive Heat Warning if any. The position of the ridge axis also leads to limited evening winds which is a good reason to just run the Heat Advisory around the clock.
1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT to central WY. Pressure falls ahead of trough supporting gusty southerly winds at times over northeast WY/northern slopes of the Black Hills. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the northern Plains with upper low spinning over WA. Effect of upper low main short-term forecast.
We remain influenced by weak troughing aloft in between an upper ridge in the west and an upper high offshore over the Atlantic. Upper trough and surface boundary approaching from the NW later today and tonight may hold together long enough to impact our CWA. Positively tilted upper trough extending from the Northeast southwest across the Tennessee Valley. Strong ridge out west. Bermuda ridge well offshore with resulting southwest flow aloft across the region. The models suggest a relatively strong short wave trough will move through the region as the upper trough to the west amplifies a bit in the early afternoon. Went with scattered showers and thunderstorms with the highest pops in the south. High temps in the low 90s.
As surface and upper low along with accompanying surface cold front move across the Upper Lakes/U.
251 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 The mid-level cyclone moving along the northwest U. /Canadian border nudged the high center to northeast New Mexico overnight. Storms have formed over the higher terrain and has struggled to move off over adjacent lower elevations. Drying begins tonight as the trough to the north moves to the northern Plains allowing high pressure to retrograde to the west causing the subtropical moisture stream to lift to the north.
We've seen many locations with high temperatures in the triple digits as of 3 PM today, and as the upper ridge remains dominant over the area we should see a slight warming trend over the next several days.
Drier air across northeast Arizona and building high pressure will result in mainly high elevation, isolated storms east of a line extending from Payson to the Four Corners.
1120 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Rest of Today) The initial line of showers and storms that developed ahead of a cold front over the Mid South last night has largely fallen apart as it pushed southeast into the Tennessee Valley early this morning. Additional support will be provided by a deepening mid/upper trough that will pivots southeastward into the area later this afternoon and evening.
the Tri-State area is under the influence of a 596- 597dam upper level high centered near south central Colorado/north central New Mexico today and tonight. Local research from many years ago showed that with 700mb temperatures above +17C and 500mb temperatures warmer than -5C its rare to get any severe weather. breezy north winds are expected in the morning, likely associated with an upper level low pressure area moving along the US/Canadian border. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to near 70 elsewhere.
Low-level thicknesses will peak tomorrow afternoon as the persistent high pressure located over the Four Corners is nudged eastward. We have sided on some of the warmer model guidance for tomorrow afternoon's high temperatures due to breezy southwest winds off the higher elevation. The persistent subtropical ridge positioned over the southwest CONUS will maintain its dominance in the synoptic pattern, showing very little of the 'tropical' portion of its nomenclature.
(Tuesday through Monday) The heat will build back in full force on Tuesday as the upper level ridge nudges to the east.
High pressure, centered over the Tennessee valley, has extended its reach into N Lower and E Upper today. Low pressure in North Dakota has a warm front that extends ENE into the Boundary Waters region of Minnesota, where thunderstorms are forming and dying along, currently. This evening, Another round of convection is expected to fire along the warm front, and extend from N Minnesota to W Upper across Lake Michigan.
(Tonight) A mid/upper trough will continue to drop SE from the Mid South into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon/evening into tonight. For tonight, we'll still be dealing with additional cloud cover and showers/storms with the passing mid/upper trough. Otherwise, expect a fairly muggy, mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.
The hottest day of the week will be Tuesday as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains in our vicinity. As the upper level ridge of high pressure begins to slide westward towards the four corners region Tuesday evening, the steering flow may become a bit more favorable for bringing showers and thunderstorms into the western sections of the area Tuesday evening, and have incorporated the NBM slight chance pops for this time period.
232 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 20Z analysis shows the upper ridge beginning to be shunted to the east as an upper low tracks eastward along the northern Montana border. At the surface, a weak low pressure center is currently tracking eastward across northern Meade and Ziebach counties. The trough/warm front ahead of the circulation has currently pushed in to north central South Dakota while a dryline extends southward into Nebraska. Dewpoints over far western South Dakota are in the lower 50s, with 40s in northeastern Wyoming.
At 500mb we have a strong ridge in place that will be knocked down as a low tracks along the ND/Canada border and into northwestern MN Tuesday. Back to the current time though, the 19Z surface map showed an area of low pressure from around Minot ND down to the SD Badlands. This low will slowly push east and be set up around Brown and Spink Counties by 09Z. The extended will begin with mid level high pressure over the southwestern part of the country, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
The deterministic models are cooler and windier Tuesday. This forecast is slightly cooler than the guidance blend and the NBM 50th percentile.
The warm front continues to trek north through the area, shifting winds to the south. Once more, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible, along with a tornado or two as effective shear will be favorable at the low to mid-levels. Temps for the period will be on the warm side of normal to slightly above with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed through the weekend and lows generally in the low 60s with a few upper 50s in the climatologically cool spots. Winds will shift to the south as the warm front continues north through Monday afternoon, and slightly increase to 10 - 15kts in the Valley.
The heat will really start to build back as the upper-level ridge expands into the Central Plains as that aforementioned trough continues shifting eastwards.
Strong southwesterly winds will continue to develop over southwest Montana and Lemhi county through this evening, as a mostly dry cold front pushes east. The "cooler" airmass currently over the Northern Rockies will not linger over the region for long.
A strong ridge of high pressure with its axis penetrating the Florida Peninsula will result in east to southeast flow through the end of the work week.
Upper-level ridging has settled across South Florida, with the westward shift of the subtropical ridge axis. As the weekend approaches, the ridge axis slowly shifts northward, eventually settling over the central FL peninsula. Daytime highs run in the upper 80s near the coast to the lower-to-mid 90s inland.
332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Issued 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: We were able to mix down a bit more drier air than forecast with dewpoints falling into the lower 60s, which helped to keep heat index values around 90 degrees. The high pressure to our south will continue to move away as a low pressure system emerges out of the Dakotas tonight into Tuesday. Additionally the better synoptic forcing will be displaced to the north and we may not have much in the way of forcing until the cold front arrives.
Weak cold front is pushing through the region this afternoon. Temperatures look a touch cooler on Tuesday and winds look much lighter but still breezy with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.
347 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight.
Cooler temperatures today in response to the cold frontal passage, with increasing breezy to windy conditions for portions of southwest Idaho this afternoon and evening.
1248 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Weak high pressure reaches from the mid MS valley into Lower MI today with some residual boundary layer moisture resulting in a 5000ft broken ceiling for a few hours this afternoon. The high pressure otherwise maintains VFR conditions across the SE MI terminals through tonight. This leaves the low possibility of a stray shower brushing MBS from the north around sunrise as the only potential aviation weather concern during the period. * Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon Lingering showers with weak deformation zone around exiting low pressure will end early this morning as this low shifts east through southeast Ontario and drier low level air filters into the region on light northwest winds in its wake.
Taking a look at the upper level pattern, we can see a large ridge centered over the four corners, stretching north into the northern Plains/Midwest, with a trough over the eastern U. This ridge will nose more into our area Tuesday, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s north of the MO River and in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees along and south of the MO River. Tuesday evening a trough will move east across the northern Midwest, lowering 500 mb heights and sending a cold front through our area.
An upper trough is in the process of working its way across Middle Tennessee, and this will help dry us out.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper-level ridge centered across the Four Corners region to continue to intensify with the ridge axis to extend eastward into Texas and across the ArkLaTex into Mississippi by Tuesday night. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge will maintain the ongoing hot pattern.
A cold front slides across the area, favoring developing thunderstorms, some of which become severe. Weak ridging aloft settles in the wake of the departing H500 low for a return to mostly dry conditions with afternoon temperatures in the 90s for most lower elevation locations.
Upper high was centered near the Four Corners with a potent low over northern Idaho.
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Heat will again be the story today, though the passage of last night's cold front should keep our headlines confined to our southern counties.
High pressure will be centered to the southeast through Tonight.
The general pattern of weak upper- level troughing over the Appalachians and strong upper-level ridging over the Rockies will continue through the near term period. At the surface, high pressure remains dominant over the Atlantic, with a ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This afternoon, as the warm front continues to move north through the area, CAPE should continue to increase with southerly winds.
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Upper level troughing influences building into mid state region will bring numerous showers with scattered to numerous thunderstorms through tonight. A surface summertime cold front might even move into northwestern portions of our area by early evening hours tonight, before becoming stationary, and pushing back northwesterly as a warm front as Tuesday progresses. Upper level troughing influences will be shifted southeastward on Tuesday as upper level ridging influences to our west make their first attempt to nudge into our area.
We remain under the influence of a 596dam upper level high spinning over the Four Corners area. Skies, sunny now, will remain clear overnight as temps slip into the low 70s. Any alterations of the forecast that push HI a little warmer (slower front?) may necessitate the inclusion of the Lincoln or Omaha metros.
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will trend even hotter as upper ridging centered over the 4 corners expands and pushes slowly east. Only in the river valleys along I-10 and Northwest Hill Country will temperatures fall into the lower 70s.
As an upper level trof moves across the region today, the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish from northwest to southeast.
Remaining warmer than average during the afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge of high pressure spinning across the Desert Southwest. Subsidence from the upper ridge combined with abundant sunshine is resulting in a very hot day across west central Texas.
322 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Flattening upper ridge has begun expanding across the central Great Lakes today allowing the hotter airmass across the upper Midwest to be advected southeast into lower MI. Ridge axis crosses the area Tuesday veering flow southwesterly resulting in strengthening of ongoing advection allowing 850mb to approach 20C which supports widespread highs in the low 90s.
In any case, weak synoptic lift provided by a passing upper trough over the region should at least translate into isolated/scattered showers/tstms remaining possible into early Tue morning. Current temps mainly in the upper 70s/near 80F will also drop more into the lower 70s late tonight.
622 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge of high pressure spinning across the Desert Southwest. Subsidence from the upper ridge combined with abundant sunshine is resulting in a very hot day across west central Texas.
520 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE A strong upper-level high pressure system will bring near to record breaking heat across much of the area and aid in suppressing convection again tomorrow. Storms will form again tomorrow around 18Z, generally favoring the northeast quadrant of the state thanks to a backdoor cold front.
224 PM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Triple digits will continue to be a story for the next few days in the lower elevations of the San JOaquin Valley but will be cooling down to near average as compared to the relentless near 110s from the weekend.
Interior northern California continues to be between high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and low pressure off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Triple digits will continue to be a story for the next few days in the lower elevations of the San Joaquin Valley but will be cooling down to near average as compared to the relentless near 110s from the weekend.