Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching positively tilted trough from the west along with the right entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES LOOKS MORE LIKELY. FOR THURSDAY, COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN TX. FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
406 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold front moves southward across the forecast area. Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on Thursday evening.
THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
652 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT.
As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa tonight. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the warmer guidance with deep mixing expected. Mdls are in good agreement with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri bringing a cooler airmass into the region. a cold front is currently pushing SE thru IA/KS and has made it into ntrhn MO. The low will track along the sthrn front and is fcst to move from the sthrn Plains today to the OH vly tomorrow. KUIN is expected to be on the edge of the clearing this aftn and CIGs may not dsspt as CIGs are expected to fill in behind the advancing cold front.
Wind should decrease late afternoon/early evening before a strong cold front blows into the area tonight with a very gusty north wind. /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/ Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the area. The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning. Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the western U.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME DUE MAINLY TO THE CLEAR SKIES.
1250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 WINDS HAVE REACH WELL ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER RANGE OF WIND ADVISORY TERRITORY FAR NORTHEAST. TO NEED THE HIGHLIGHT. COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THEN CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WITH CLOUDS LINGERING A BIT LONGER HERE. PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHWAY 14 AREA AND NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SW MN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WITH RESIDUAL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOOON HOURS.
356 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
206 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXITING FOR THE MOST PART MID AFTERNOON. AND WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ENVELOPING THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST POPS BEFORE 12Z ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MY EAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING.
1238 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PROG TO MOVE THRU TMRW MRNG. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TNITE WITH LIFR INTO BPT AND AEX. A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
600 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
324 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 Another round of light showers is expected this afternoon and overnight across central Idaho and western Montana as a weak disturbance and warm front move into the area. Snow levels are expected to rise from west to east as warmer air moves in. Road surfaces should not see much accumulation given that local road surface models show temperatures at or above freezing through the period. Some lingering light showers Thursday morning will give way to warmer and drier conditions as high pressure builds into the region.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO SE TX LATE TONIGHT AND THU AM IS PUSHING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFT.
322 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXITING FOR THE MOST PART MID AFTERNOON. AND WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ENVELOPING THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST POPS BEFORE 12Z ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH THE AREA. /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER AREAS. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
310 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. TODAY'S COLD ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY DAYS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT. THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A strong cold front and upper-level disturbance will create conditions for gusty winds from the north and possible severe thunderstorms tonight. As another cold front pushes south across West Central Texas tonight, surface winds will be from the north, in the 30 to 35 mph range, with possible gusts near 45 mph.
355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BUT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
318 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN TX. FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
648 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SHARPLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF MINOR DISTURBANCES TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS.
1131 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 26/06Z. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST AREAS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS REFLECTION ON THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AN AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CO. THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL HAVE WORKED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST VALLEYS TONIGHT INCLUDING MUCH OF SE UTAH AND SW TO FAR WEST CO WHERE FRUIT TREES HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM. BUT VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FLEXES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SW U.
EXTENDS SW FROM A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES OR WARMER UPSTREAM. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM INTO THE 75 TO 78 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF I-65.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CKV TOWARD 12Z THU. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
644 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
309 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CHANGES BEGIN THIS EVENING AS MVFR CEILINGS (AND MAYBE VISIBILITIES?) BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SFC DW PTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AREA-WIDE. SO A WARM AND HUMID AFT IS ON TAP WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND. ALSO SPED UP COLD FRONT TIMING A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING.
HELPING TO DEEPEN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NAM- WRF/GFS/SREF INDICATE 55-60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/SREF/NAM12/RAP13 WOULD INDICATE POTENTIALLY 1200-2000 J/KG MUCAPES ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE STORM TARGET AREA FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO FOR A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AREA-WIDE.
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT 07Z.
High pressure is rebuilding over the area and the air mass is drying and allowed the winter weather advisory to expire. Some fog remains across the area but also canceled the dense freezing fog advisory.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE IS GOING COOLER (2 METER TEMPS LOOK COOLER) SO WILL GO WITH THAT AND GO WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S MOST AREAS. THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
558 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching positively tilted trough from the west along with the right entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. JORDAN AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AREAS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE WORDING THOUGH AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT COULD MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.
632 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE.
512 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015 It has been a very pleasant day today with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s area wide. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 30s with cloud cover slowly increasing overnight.
Nly and gradual shift to Ely flow down the W slope Siernev (zones 69/67) should keep stratus/fog confined to the lowest Motherlode elevations. the high resolution HRRR indicates high SFC humidity and low vsbys in an area similar to this morning. Weak trof along 140W is forecast to move through the flat ridge on Tue to be followed by amplifying the ridge along the W Coast Wed/Thu. This ridging will pale in relation to the strength of the ridge forecast over the weekend and the potential Omega-Rex block pattern over the Ern Pac.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE ALL SAID AND DONE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE 30 HOUR TERMINALS AFTER 21/00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TO MID 70S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EQUAL TO 2-4 DEGREES WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. FORECAST HIGHS WERE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A KTOP TO KHUT LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFFSHORE.
924 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY.
755 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S FAR INLAND.
623 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON TUESDAY THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
/ISSUED 529 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/ LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PAC NW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CAL. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE DISRUPTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. THE GFS, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
613 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/ TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
1006 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
900 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
855 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM ABOUT MIAMI TO BRISTOW AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A KTOP TO KHUT LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
High pressure aloft will move into the area from the west after 15Z, generally decreasing showers. However, the flow aloft will shift more northerly over the eastern terminals (including KHVR and KLWT), which will bring a weak cold front south out of Canada.
AFTER 00Z WED EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING CLL 03Z/21 AND IAH 06-08Z/21.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX. 2 SUBTLE WAVES ACTUALLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR GIVING WAY TO A RATHER BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT AND DEPTH OF MARGINAL WARM LAYER COULD SPELL A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT STILL ALLOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
721 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT. BUT STILL SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF INTO TUESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH ORIENTATION MAY FAVOR DYNAMICS MAINLY FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
703 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
546 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER KANSAS TONIGHT DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS. COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVES TO OUR NORTH. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY SO IT WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE OUT DESPITE GOOD MIXING HELPING HIGHS TO STILL REACH INTO THE 40S NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 50S KANSAS.