Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the broad surface cyclone continues it's very gradual movement across central Texas, some precipitation will likely wrap around the northern portion of the cyclone through northeastern Texas Tuesday morning. 75"), diurnal destabilization of the atmosphere, and supported by the surface cyclone and a weak, slowly moving upper level trough axis. Widespread cloud cover will keep the high temperatures in the 80s across the region, while high surface dewpoints will help keep the overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. By the day Wednesday, the surface cyclone will become fairly stationary in eastern Texas, with a stationary front developing across the region. With the continued presence of ample moisture and the weak troughing aloft, widespread precipitation chances increase during the day on Wednesday, with a focus of stronger storms developing near the stationary surface boundary.
424 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 The Subtropical Ridge remains to the West near the S. With the high in this location drier northerly flow remains in place over our CWA. High pressure will settle over the 4 Corners region by Wednesday and begin to advect moisture rich air back into the region. With relatively drier conditions and high pressure moving back overhead afternoon temperatures should push back above normal the next few afternoons. A system moving into the Northern Rockies by the mid week period will flatten the high and flush the monsoonal flow out of the Great Basin into our CWA.
expect the upper level ridge to our west to continue to tilt east.
Less activity is expected today as high pressure moves across the region.
610 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through most of today as weak high pressure builds into the central Great Lakes.
High pressure was located over the Midwest resulting in light winds and quiet conditions. Nice late August weather is expected with highs in the low/mid 80s, comfortable humidity, and light winds.
The cold front that brought precipitation to the Northland is expected to retreat northward as a warm front through the afternoon. By late this evening, the warm front will transition to a cold front and move southward to split the CWA.
A weak upper level trough will linger over the area on Wednesday, with perhaps more afternoon cumulus over the Trinity mountains. Upper ridging and rising 500mb heights will build toward the coast by Wed into Thu. Warmer 850mb temperatures and a shallower marine layer will likely result in warming for the interior. Temperatures should edge closer to seasonal normals over the weekend as another trough drops down from the north and westerly breezes strengthen.
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today through Wednesday night) Today and tomorrow, slow moving longwave trough embedded in northerly flow aloft progresses from E CO/W KS to the Red River.
720 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Aviation -- Today and Wednesday -- Not much going on today or Wednesday amid weak high pressure.
The low will continue east and a front will sag south to along the IA/MN border Wednesday night. Cluster(s) of showers/storms will develop near and in advance of the low center over southeastern MN and parts of western WI, where PoPs are now in the likely category.
This ridge breakdown is a response to a stationary front draped over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. For much of the morning hours, KBYX Doppler radar has been detecting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the offshore Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will remain in place through the rest of the week, with a weak ridge extending westward to the Florida Florida. After this break, more showers could develop later today possibly associated with a cloudline near or just off the Lower Keys.
422 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Issued 422 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022) Today through Wednesday: We have two more days of pleasant weather with high pressure in control. Dewpoints will be similar to yesterday and temps will be one or two degrees warmer.
An upper low is nearly stationary over Washington state. Cooler, but still warm, temps are expected Wednesday, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
611 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Precipitation chances will continue to head in the downward direction today but cooler than seasonal average temperatures will remain. The cooler temperatures will primarily be due to the prevailing low level northeasterly winds. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to dry out this morning but the lower troposphere will stay relatively moist.
Meanwhile, an area of weak 850 mb convergence has resulted in pronounced area of ACCAS near and east of the Buffalo Ridge. Any lingering showers/cloud cover should help suppress temperatures cooler than today's values, or generally in the 80s.
Much drier air has been filtering over western NC as the mid/upper level trough axis moves over eastern NC. Wednesday will be another day of suppressed shower and storm chances under high pressure. Thu: Broad upper troughing across the eastern U.
528 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 The Subtropical Ridge remains to the West near the S. With the high in this location drier northerly flow remains in place over our CWA. High pressure will settle over the 4 Corners region by Wednesday and begin to advect moisture rich air back into the region. With relatively drier conditions and high pressure moving back overhead afternoon temperatures should push back above normal the next few afternoons. A system moving into the Northern Rockies by the mid week period will flatten the high and flush the monsoonal flow out of the Great Basin into our CWA.
Temperatures nudge cooler for the remainder of the week. The typical marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with the potential for coastal drizzle by mid/late week.
424 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Slightly drier and warmer air aloft continues to drift in from the north. Forecast for today is looking good with temperatures slightly warmer and storms limited to the mountains, mainly the Front Range. The upper ridge will remain in place over the western states this week, centered over the Great Basin through about Wednesday. There will be good instability over the high terrain and should be enough moisture under the ridge for scattered storms and showers in the high country Wednesday afternoon and evening. The lower elevations look much drier and more stable. In the latter half of the week, pressure heights should be generally falling as a trough moves in over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will fall back to near normal or a few degrees cooler.
315 AM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today and again on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be as much as 10 degrees above average for this time of year with widespread triple digit heat across the lower elevations.
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Now through Wednesday) A mid-level trough across northern Texas into the Tennessee Valley and associated cold front is bringing unsettled weather, including heavy rain and flooding, across northern Texas. The cold front will stall out across central Texas with showers and thunderstorms along the boundary potentially making it far enough south into northern portions of the CWA this afternoon/evening.
444 AM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Warmer today with returning monsoonal moisture bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon.
The upper pattern will be defined by a ridge across the Srn Rockies and a trough over the OH Valley region. Temperatures through the period will be in the 60s and 70s for lows and in the lower to mid 70s over Srn half of AR, to the mid/upper 80s over Nrn AR.
Weak and somewhat disorganized surface ridging still in place over the area making for mostly clear skies, which will continue to radiate out through the rest of the morning hours. This should bring Wednesday morning lows down into the lower 60s, with a smattering of upper 50s by daybreak.
1021 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A frontal boundary will settle into north FL and stall as weak ridging remains across the local area. Highs are on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s across the area this afternoon with POPs increasing through the afternoon. Have made some minor tweaks to the POPs for the next few hours, but does not impact the higher afternoon POPs for the period. E/SE flow with afternoon sea breezes will continue across the waters for the next several days as weak ridging remains across the state with a frontal boundary settling into the north.
459 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Slightly drier and warmer air aloft continues to drift in from the north. Forecast for today is looking good with temperatures slightly warmer and storms limited to the mountains, mainly the Front Range. The upper ridge will remain in place over the western states this week, centered over the Great Basin through about Wednesday. There will be good instability over the high terrain and should be enough moisture under the ridge for scattered storms and showers in the high country Wednesday afternoon and evening. The lower elevations look much drier and more stable. In the latter half of the week, pressure heights should be generally falling as a trough moves in over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will fall back to near normal or a few degrees cooler.
Upper level low centered over Washington/northern Idaho will remain fairly stationary throughout much of the week.
638 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Weak upper ridge over the SW US extends east across SE NM and W TX today as an upper low sits over WA. The ridge will strengthen over the 4 Corners region Wednesday as the low continues to spin in place. Should be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be warmer but remain a bit below below normal during the work week. The upper level high is gradually shifting east on its way toward settling over the 4-corners area by late Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be another day with rim shot activity thanks to the position of the high and the NE flow aloft.
High pressure over the Midwest drifting toward the Ohio Valley will provide us with quiet late summer weather today and tonight. After patchy fog burns off this morning the rest of the day will be partly cloudy with light breezes and afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s. just a bit cooler than normal. Due to a deep upper low located over NE Canada, general longwave troughing is expected to cover most of the eastern third of the US through the end of this week.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper ridge over the southern California area with long-wave troughing moving across the eastern seaboard. Temperatures across the area are in the mid 60s with dewpoints hovering in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures should get into the upper 80s again before falling into the low 60s by Wednesday AM. By Wednesday, winds will continue to veer as the ridge moves east and will bring winds back out of the south.
937 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure will allow for a couple of drier days and seasonal temperatures into Wednesday.
1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (The rest of today ) Low/mid level low pressure continues to sit and spin just southeast of the area this morning. The plume of tropical moisture will continue to spread around the east and northern edges of this low into west central Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. For the afternoon, warmer temperatures are expected north of this boundary with mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the 90s, while isolated thunderstorm chances and more cloud cover will stay south of the boundary. Mostly isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible within the higher moisture plume across southeast Oklahoma.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern half of the U. with a ridge over the Rockies and a closed low over the Pacific NW 12z Wed. Upper troughing remains over the upper Great Lakes this forecast period through 00z Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and another over the northern plains 12z Sat. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Tue.
Southerly winds this afternoon have allowed for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs generally in the low 80s this afternoon.
The chance of showers and storms still appears to be focused over the higher mountains. Slightly drier and warmer air aloft continues to drift in from the north. Forecast for today is looking good with temperatures slightly warmer and storms limited to the mountains, mainly the Front Range. The upper ridge will remain in place over the western states this week, centered over the Great Basin through about Wednesday. There will be good instability over the high terrain and should be enough moisture under the ridge for scattered storms and showers in the high country Wednesday afternoon and evening. The lower elevations look much drier and more stable. In the latter half of the week, pressure heights should be generally falling as a trough moves in over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will fall back to near normal or a few degrees cooler.
/NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ By the latter half of the work week, the upper level high will be centered well to our west as an upper level trough deepens to the east.
The big question on how far, if at all, the south sinks norther before a weak trough pushes a generally messy weather pattern out. Several impulses are noted in the upper level flow across the forecast area by late morning through this evening as a weak trough shifts across the area overnight and into tomorrow.
126 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Broad area of high pressure sits over the Ohio Valley keeping VFR conditions in place with cloud cover defined by scattered cumulus and a few high clouds this afternoon. Light northwest flow of 5 knots or less gradually shifts to the southwest by the end of the period as the high departs eastward.
105 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A high pressure system west of the region will influence the Ohio Valley with generally sunny skies, light wind, and a dry forecast.
Due to this low PoPs have been removed for central Nebraska tonight. Temps through the remainder of the week: Temps will peak Today and Tomorrow before a slow downward trend as a low over the northwest knocks the ridge down. However, this will be a slow trend cooler.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: - - Not much change to the large-scale synoptic flow over the last 24 hours with mean cyclonic flow over the eastern conus and a low amplitude ridge axis up the spine of the Rockies.
A couple vorticity maximums and a wave of low pressure currently over the nrn high plains will then slowly move across srn WI late Wed nt-Thu. Nely sfc winds and weak cold advection will then prevail Thu nt-Fri followed by high pressure for Fri afternoon and night.
Warmer temperatures in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 60s will provide plenty of energy for afternoon storms. A cold front is expected to move through the area tonight bringing low stratus deck in from Canada that will linger through tomorrow afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be generally suppressed by the expanding ridge to our west and an inversion aloft noted in progged soundings.
In terms of storm characteristics, shear is on the low side, but up to 20 knots of deep layer bulk shear is possible this afternoon in Yavapai County.
1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Now through Wednesday) A mid-level trough across northern Texas into the Tennessee Valley and associated cold front is bringing unsettled weather, including heavy rain and flooding, across northern Texas. The cold front will stall out across central Texas with showers and thunderstorms along the boundary potentially making it far enough south into northern portions of the CWA this afternoon/evening.
1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today through Wednesday night) Today and tomorrow, slow moving longwave trough embedded in northerly flow aloft progresses from E CO/W KS to the Red River.
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Precipitation chances will continue to head in the downward direction today but cooler than seasonal average temperatures will remain. The cooler temperatures will primarily be due to the prevailing low level northeasterly winds. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to dry out this morning but the lower troposphere will stay relatively moist.
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A weak cold front will move off the coast later today.
253 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 18Z surface data has high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley with low pressure over South Dakota.
(This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough along with a moist airmass over portions of the fa and heating will continue chances for scattered showers and some storms through sunset across portions of central and southern OK and western north TX.
It still looks like there will be a large upper trough over the Hudson Bay with a high over the southwest CONUS which will set up northwesterly flow over the Midwest late this week.
(Tonight) Spotty showers and storms over SE OK/WC AR rotating around the north side of an upper low near TXK will fade with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Overnight lows across far NE OK and NW AR will be cooler where the drier air is located.
In the upper levels the trough will continue east and retreat north and thus promote weak flow aloft as an upper level ridge centers over the Rocky Mountain region. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the region through early Wednesday. Discussion: A warmer weather pattern will be occurring through the extended time period.
Temperatures will be warmer but remain a bit below normal during the work week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon with indications of strong storms propagating off the higher terrain to the SW across the lower elevations into the overnight hours tonight.
Highs will be in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
135 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Aviation -- Today and Wednesday -- Not much going on today or Wednesday amid weak high pressure.
327 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 The mid-level trough over the Arklatex hasn't moved much today but has provided modest forcing for ascent over the Mid-South.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ 00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate an upper level ridge axis located over the Rockies, a trough axis extending from the East Coast back through the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into the Southern Plains.
The axis of the Atlantic ridge has shifted south and now resides over Central FL, roughly from Melbourne to Tampa. Isolated lightning storms are possible along the coast as the sea breeze develops early this afternoon, then mostly dry conditions over the local waters as the highest coverage of storms remains over the peninsula.
(Tonight) A stalled surface boundary stretching roughly along the I-20 corridor of TX/LA/MS/AL and an area of low pressure propagating along it continues to generate dense cloud cover and widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the ArkLaMiss into portions of western Alabama. Still, widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours due the broad, synoptic lift from the low and the very moist environment in place.
As evident on satellite and radar, a large scale swath of moisture continues to gradually overtake the Lower MS Valley and eastward into part of Central MS/AL.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure has developed over LA and western MS, and should very slowly translate east and weaken over the next 24 hours. Highs will be in the low to mid 80's along and southeast of the I-65 corridor with upper 70's northwest of the I-65 corridor.
Moist soils will keep minimum temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points also in the lower 70s. Muggy conditions will continue into tomorrow with dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, however, maximum temperatures will be moderated at or below the mid-80s in most areas by cloud cover and lingering convection, sparing us from hazardous heat.
209 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure over the region will result in generally dry weather and near seasonal temperatures through mid-week. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. Some storms possible mainly along southern Blue Ridge.
High pressure has kept winds light through the day across eastern Kansas. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 60s across the cwa. On Wednesday with the high moving slowly to the east and some warm advection into central and north central Kansas, highs should top out a few degrees warmer than today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A trough deepening from Hudson Bay into the eastern U.
At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the Midwest. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s.
159 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 More storms expected today and tomorrow as an upper low sits over the Pacific Northwest and continues to bring monsoonal moisture into the area. After today's highs that look to be similar to yesterday, we should cool off tonight behind a subtle cold front, and highs will only be in the low 80s on Wednesday.
1127 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 The Subtropical Ridge remains to the West near the S. With the high in this location drier northerly flow remains in place over our CWA. High pressure will settle over the 4 Corners region by Wednesday and begin to advect moisture rich air back into the region. With relatively drier conditions and high pressure moving back overhead afternoon temperatures should push back above normal the next few afternoons. A system moving into the Northern Rockies by the mid week period will flatten the high and flush the monsoonal flow out of the Great Basin into our CWA.
Lows Tonight in the lower to middle 70s expected. Weak high pressure will be across the area Wednesday, with a moist airmass remaining in place.
At the surface, high pressure will move into the area. Sunshine will boost temperatures into the lower and middle 80s. Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
High pressure has pushed in a drier airmass, causing dew points to remain in the low 60s. That being the case, the high will gradually break down and our air mass will modify to become warmer and more humid.
1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Weak upper ridge over the SW US extends east across SE NM and W TX today as an upper low sits over WA. The ridge will strengthen over the 4 Corners region Wednesday as the low continues to spin in place. Should be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday.
The overall weather pattern consists of broad ridging over the Desert Southwest while broad troughing persists over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley region. A weak surface front remains to our north, extended from west to east across much of the state of Tennessee with drier and cooler temperatures to the north. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the area. Lows will be in the lower 70s across the area with near calm winds. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with east to southeast winds 3-6 mph.
(The rest of today ) Low/mid level low pressure continues to sit and spin just southeast of the area this morning. The plume of tropical moisture will continue to spread around the east and northern edges of this low into west central Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. For the afternoon, warmer temperatures are expected north of this boundary with mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the 90s, while isolated thunderstorm chances and more cloud cover will stay south of the boundary. Mostly isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible within the higher moisture plume across southeast Oklahoma.
High pressure over the Central Atlantic remains quite weak, owed to its competing influence of a quasi-stationary mid-latitude trough over the Mid-Atlantic states. Most global guidance suggests a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) currently located in the west-central will cut off over the next couple of days.