Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build over southern Colorado through Friday. As this energy moves through the ridge over Colorado, it flattens it slightly and tries to send a weak boundary south through the plains. However, the upper high continues to strengthen over the area on Friday so confidence in the cooling is not real high. Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and computer simulations indicate that basically dry and very warm to hot conditions are expected to continue over the forecast district into Father's Day weekend as upper ridging continues to build into southern Colorado.
120 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Aviation Low pressure will produce clouds and scattered showers today along with cooler temperatures.
225 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 225 PM CDT Fairly deep low pressure for mid-June of 1003 mb across eastern Ohio will continue departing eastward tonight with a weak high pressure ridge building in from the northwest.
Upper level ridge influence will make for clear skies and above normal temperatures today with highs well into the 90s across the Nebraska Panhandle. A weak cold frontal boundary will move into the area Friday which will make for high temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than today.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Plains with a trough of low pressure located at the surface west of the area. There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across central Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening as medium range models indicate a weak perturbation cycling east-southeast across the axis of an upper level ridge building northeast across the Central Plains. A dry and hot weather pattern is then expected to persist through the weekend as an upper level high setting up across the Desert Southwest builds northeast across the Western High Plains.
219 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 An upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest with upper ridging over the central conus. Temperatures will be hot again today with highs expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday. Beginning on Friday, the forecast is dry as the upper ridge intensifies and continues to build over the region.
Temperatures will average several degrees cooler than normal through Friday. An upper level low off the N california coast will continue to provide a cool onshore flow into the interior of CA. Models show a second disturbance moving through the trough friday night over N ca.
This influx of cooler air has kept temperatures 5 to 13 degrees cooler at many sites compared to this time yesterday. Still expect highs to reach the low 80s north to mid 90s southwest, but the chances of Des Moines reaching 90 degrees for the eighth day in a row look to be fading. Much like yesterday confidence is somewhat reduced due to questions in the degree of mixing but even with less mixing low level raw temperatures would suggest a 15 degree plus spread from the lower 80s NE to mid 90s SW.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 300 pm overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts the center of a regional scale middle and upper anticyclone is positioned near 28 N 71 W. Closer to the Keys, a middle and upper level low pressure has reached the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. As of 300 pm, radar has been consistently depicting widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the service area, but best confluent flow has been closer to the Lower and Middle Keys, where several special marine warnings have been a necessity as downward momentum has allowed radar to detect scattered areas of 40 knots just off the surface.
258 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front will push south of the region this evening. High pressure will build in from the northwest overnight and Friday and will gradually settle south of New England over the weekend.
An upper level trough will continue to bring cooler temperatures and and scattered showers to northwest California through Friday.
Have gone on the high end of guidance today, with middle/upper 90s over the entire forecast area.
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 An upper trof will dig southward along the Atlantic coast on Friday. This system will push a cold front into north Alabama Friday afternoon. Low level convergence will be weak along the front due to northwest winds ahead of the front, but instability will be high in the afternoon due to very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Surface temperatures will likely run a little warmer on Friday than today due to warm air advection ahead of the front.
Models have been handling the low-level moisture field quite poorly today, so will need to keep an eye on the clearing and see exactly how far it expands. Satellite loops and upper air data display northwest flow aloft over midwest, with the upper trof drifting to the east. Upper trof continues to provide enough support to trigger flurries over area, that should last into the mid morning hours, when trof moves through and weak high pressure builds in.
The warm front that moved through most of the area is currently just south of Bend OR. This system will not be nearly as wet as this tonight's system, but with the northwest flow snow levels will be lower, bringing snow down to the west side ridges, and another dose of healthy snow pack to the mountains. Winds will ramp up again today as another low pressure system moves by to our north, but winds are still expected to remain below gales.
High pressure will build into the area by evening causing the lake effect to diminish to flurries.
Moderate to breezy northwest to north winds and cloudy skies will continue today as relatively shallow, cool high pressure spreads over the area, setting up an inversion up to about 850 mb.
There is a low chance at very low CIGS or freezing fog to affect KLBB/KPVW early Saturday morning but chances are too low at the moment to mention in the TAF. /issued 402 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ Surface ridging will slide east today with surface lee troughing quickly reestablishing itself by the afternoon. Only major contention in the short term will be the low stratus and how long it hangs around the region today. For tonight, the NAM is particularly aggressive in bringing back very low stratus or even freezing fog.
Current time/best forcing puts the higher accumulations between 18z Sat-18z Sun.
The next organized warm front arrives early Saturday morning and then spreads rain southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday.
527 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Satellite loops and upper air data display northwest flow aloft over midwest, with the upper trof drifting to the east. Upper trof continues to provide enough support to trigger flurries over area, that should last into the mid morning hours, when trof moves through and weak high pressure builds in.
1011 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
Near repeat tomorrow early and then warmer with clouds increasing.
Further north, across central LA, skies have largely cleared which should allow for temperatures to continue to fall to near or below freezing over the next few hours. Gave some considerable thought as to whether to issue a freeze warning for the I-10 corridor, but while I do expect some areas along I-10 to reach freezing tonight, I don't think it's going to be for a long enough period to warrant a freeze warning.
933 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 The north country will be under cold advection today, as a cold front has moved south of the region. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with a chance of snow showers over the higher terrain.
950 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic high pressure will build across the area through Saturday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 22 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 20 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 20 40 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 15 38 22 / 0 0 0 0.
623 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic high pressure will build across the area through Saturday.
Highs today will likely stay at or below freezing in many locations, and low temps tonight will fall down into the teens. However, things will begin to warm some by over the weekend as the high pressure system moves off to the east and low pressure forms to our west/northwest.
Have watched this all night and has actually begun to spread back to the southwest as the fetch off Lake Oahe has turned clockwise with the surface wind flow as the high pressure moves on through. Wind chills not a problem as winds are light and variable under the high, so no headlines needed this morning even though they are issued to areas north and west.
The next weather system will begin to spread snow through the region this evening with another warm front, but the atmosphere will become more unstable overnight.
620 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 A strong and cold high pressure centered from Alberta Canada into the northern Plains will continue building SE toward NC through Saturday. The expansive arctic high pressure currently centered over nation's mid-section will build slowly eastward into the area through the weekend. Otherwise, very little little change as the modified arctic high pressure migrates east atop the region.
1053 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will extend over the area through the first half of the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast U.
629 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday with no chance of rain.
Leeside troughing over the Cntrl/Srn Plains Saturday will result in a tightening pressure gradient over these areas. A 45-50kt Swrly LLJ will enhance H850 theta-e ridging over the region Saturday night.
659 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will extend over the area through the first half of the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast U.
The 00Z upper air analysis indicated relatively low-amplitude flow over the CONUS with a broad trough over the eastern third of the country, and west to northwest flow over the western two-thirds.
Highly amplified flow in the high latitudes has opened the door for arctic cold to grip a good portion of the nation. Increasing downslope flow over the Rockpile will induce lee troughing and a return to southerly winds while the arctic high center slides east toward the Mid Atlantic this upcoming weekend.
A cold front continues to slide southward across the region.
The gradient is expected to relax later today into tonight as weak high pressure builds in from the northern Plains.
402 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Surface ridging will slide east today with surface lee troughing quickly reestablishing itself by the afternoon. Only major contention in the short term will be the low stratus and how long it hangs around the region today. For tonight, the NAM is particularly aggressive in bringing back very low stratus or even freezing fog.
Surface analysis early this morning places high pressure across the state.
143 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across much of Texas on Tuesday. Only slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the front along with a with north winds of 5 to 10 mph. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s behind the front, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016 The cold front has accelerated across the Roan and eastern Tavaputs Plateaus this afternoon. Very weak reflection of wave moving in with elevated moisture over the cold front may keep some isolated showers going over the central divide mountains but confidence low this occurs. This wave will also bring along a front and another shot of cooler air.
Des Moines has at least tied its record high by 3pm /86F/ but the cold front should be nearly through the entire forecast area by 06z. Still expecting the cold front to be through the area by Tuesday morning but with a Southwest flow aloft.
Showery weather will continue tonight and Tuesday as an upper level trough moves eastward across the region.
Broad high pressure ridge will stretch from northeast of the region across southeast Georgia this period. The high strengthens a little into Tuesday, with subsidence leading to lower precipitation chances. The upper level pattern for the short term begins with high pressure over the southeast and northern Gulf coast, an area of low pressure just northeast of the Bahamas, and a trough pushing into the intermountain west.
A cold front will be moving southeast and should move across the area during the day as an upper level trof moves.
Light rain mixed with snow for the higher elevations will occur across the northern mountain ranges, and as far south as the Ruby mountains.
These showers will diminish overnight in the valleys but will remain possible for the higher terrain, which may cause passes such as Lolo and Lost Trail to briefly see snow packed roadways.
The strong upper level ridge that has dominated the pattern of late is starting to show signs of weaken- ing.
148 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure is the rule for Monday. A mid level ridge is currently building into the area from the west. while high pressure continues to dominate in the lower levels. Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures return to north and central Georgia as ample sunshine and building upper-level ridge dominate through Tuesday.
We have decided to expand the high wind warning to include Converse, Niobrara and Goshen counties based upon the NAM and GFS numerical guidance and progged soundings. Precipitation will end as the low and mid levels dry out. Cooler in the wake of the cold front, especially east of I-25, and again have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS maximum temperatures for highs.
Expect temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday, with highs around 90 for most of the area. This will be followed by quiet conditions for Tuesday night as high pressure remains in control of the weather.
A cold front will move into the region overnight. Overnight lows are expected to be around 25 degrees above average except for the extreme northwestern corner of the CWA where the cold front will have made sufficient progress to affect overnight lows. Therefore, have continued some more widespread PoPs across the region, with the highest PoPs for those areas and times that mdls are in agreement. The GFS is slower with the upper trof late this week which poses some uncertainty for temps this weekend. Initially southwest winds at the surface will become westerly to northwesterly after 18/12z when a cold front moves through the TAF sites and then stalls across the region.
the cold front is forecast move into far Northeast Oklahoma. the cold front is progged to sag southeast between Interstate 44 and Interstate 40 and stall over the region.
As this area of low pressure moves to the northeast, a Pacific Cold front will race across the Northern High Plains. High pressure will swiftly begin to build in across the Central Rockies, which will result in strong pressure rises across Western and North Central Nebraska during the late afternoon hours today and into the early evening hours tonight. While CAA will be ushering in cooler temperatures throughout the nighttime hours tonight. Winds for most of the daylight hours will be from the west to west northwest in response to the movement of this high, but will back to the southwest near sunset as the high lifts off into the Iowa/Missouri region.
This evening through Tuesday morning, a cold front will bring a wind shift to all TAFS. /issued 638 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/ Strong south winds will remain gusty through the day and ahead of a weak cold front which will enter northwest Oklahoma early Tuesday.
240 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. By late day, an approaching cold front will bring showers chances for Northwest PA.
The upper level ridge remains centered over the state and northern Gulf this afternoon, with dry and subsident conditions prevailing. Temperatures will be fairly persistent, with highs still in the mid 90s most locations and lows in the low to mid 70s. The upper ridge will gradually stretch further east tomorrow and tomorrow night, allowing for a slight increase in moisture across the marine and coastal bend by Tuesday night. Weak energy moving up the western periphery of the upper ridge shear axis will move across the coastal waters and onshore late Tuesday night, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the period.
300 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Slow moving front with a deepening low pressure located across the I90 corridor this afternoon, while mid level warm advection showers continue to migrate across the northern tier of the state. Winds will increase as the low deepens, with strong pressure rises in its wake. this will keep the flow from allowing any fog to form overnight as well, despite the cooler more humid conditions across much of the CWA. High pressure builds in from the west. Favorable westerly flow will result in breezy conditions for Tuesday but with cooler air aloft only anticipate highs in the low 60s, though that is still about 5F higher than average. Despite strong westerlies and a broad upper trof overhead, not much else going on in the short term.
438 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure dominates across southeastern states into the mid- Atlantic, and extends into central Florida. While persistent northeasterly regional flow continues to bring patches of moisture and cloudiness into the region, Florida is on the subsident side of an upper level trough and subsidence continues to stifle regional shower activity. The axis of the upper trough is across the northwest Bahamas.
Also at 2 pm, shallow moisture was hanging on across the southeast Rolling Plains - however the atmosphere will remain firmly capped in the subsident regime to the south of a strong upper-level jet moving across the southern Rockies and out into the high plains.
By Tuesday, high pressure over the CO/WY rockies will slide over the central plains resulting mostly sunny skies and westerly flow at the surface. Model soundings suggest a mixture of rain/snow possible over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills Tuesday night, though surface temperatures should remain at or just above freezing, resulting in very little to no snow accumulations.
Surface analysis at 19z showed a warm front to the northeast of the forecast area and a cold front across western Vilas County. Expect cooler day on Tuesday but highs are still forecast to be at least 5F above normal. Tuesday Night Through Monday For the rest of the work week, a series of short wave troughs with cold frontal passages in the west to northwest flow will bring in a cooler and drier air mass.
628 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. By late day, an approaching cold front will bring showers chances for Northwest PA.
Across the forecast area, storms seem to be peaking in intensity as they shift northward into the frontal zone, then weakening as they head farther into the cooler air mass. Surface analysis at 19z showed a warm front to the northeast of the forecast area and a cold front across western Vilas County. Expect cooler day on Tuesday but highs are still forecast to be at least 5F above normal. Tuesday Night Through Monday For the rest of the work week, a series of short wave troughs with cold frontal passages in the west to northwest flow will bring in a cooler and drier air mass.
344 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Despite a cold front marching through the area tonight, a rather large wedge of dry air is fixed in place, negating any sort of precip chances.
Broad upper trough will keep things across the area a bit unsettled during this period.
235 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure in the western Atlantic will remain in place for the next several days.
542 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A lingering band of light fog/stratus across far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota has created quite the temperature variance across the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures beneath the stratus holding in the mid 60s, which readings on either side have climbed into the lower-mid 70s. Should be a cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s, more sunshine and modest westerly flow.
SDF should set a record warm minimum today as the low this morning was 69. The hot temperatures continue into tomorrow as the southerly winds continue ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The cold front will continue to approach the area Tuesday night.
An upper level ridge is beginning to exert its influence on the southeast United States and over the next 48 hours, we'll see its effect here in the mid-state.
Gusty southwest winds will diminish this evening, then switch to the north as a dry cold front moves through Tuesday morning. /issued 404 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/ Height fields will edge slightly lower today as a trough races across the central and northern Rockies. Alone this would imply cooler temperatures, however a stout thermal ridge will relocate farther south and serve to keep deep mixing with near record heat on tap for all of the region. After midnight, attention turns to a dry cold front accelerating south through the Panhandle before clearing a large portion of the CWA toward daybreak.
500 mb ridging in place over the region will maintain the stable conditions over the RGV airports over the upcoming 24 hours. /issued 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): H5 ridge remains dominant across south Texas during the next 36 hours. As the ridge slowly begins to drift eastward tonight into tomorrow, some moisture will begin to rise further upwards into the atmosphere.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a short wave trough coming across Wyoming into Nebraska. A strong upper level jet will come through with the short wave trough, but both the 17. A cold front extended northeast from the low into northern Wisconsin. Despite this, with the unusually warm and moist airmass already in place, ML CAPES values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range ahead of the cold front.
Winds should then diminish and veer from the late evening into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of the cold front, with the cold front near a central MO far southeast KS axis by 12z Tuesday. The chance of precipitation will increase some on Tuesday as the cold front continues to ooze southeastward.
A frontal system then brings unsettled and cooler weather by mid week, lasting through late week. Latest surface map shows an area of high pressure centered over the Southeast States. The area of high pressure is expected to move away from the area which will allow a cold front to approach from the northwest. In advance of the cold front, clouds should begin to spread across the area on Tuesday. Upper ridge over the eastern portion of the nation only slowly erodes as an amplifying upper trough digs into the center portion of the nation.
High pressure centered near the Carolinas has maintained a tightened pressure gradient across the Florida Keys. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, a few notches below previous days. An upper level low apparent on water vapor imagery has shifted to east of the Florida Peninsula. Mean layer analyses from CIMMS place a mid to upper level ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
248 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016 After three days of well above average temperatures and humidity, a cold front will bring some relief. A cold front is expected to enter far northwest Oklahoma by late evening and will move across central Oklahoma (OKC) by sunrise Tuesday.
A weak ridge will keep most shower chances suppressed over the rest of the forecast area through at least Tuesday afternoon. Another round of snow showers will overspread the higher terrain above 7000ft, with the Beartooth's picking up the most. We are expecting 4-6 inches of new snow for the Beartooths with the highest accumulations on western-facing slopes.
A narrow band of a quarter to half in of accumulation is possible with the higher values expected in southeastern North Dakota.