Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 This afternoon the upper high pressure continues to expand from the southwest states into the north central states. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s and dew points in were in the lower to mid 60s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s at 19Z. Tonight and Monday there will be little change in airmass as the upper high expands eastward over the central states.
But an unrelated upper trough, currently draped along the Texas coast, will prevent the strengthening tropical cyclone from making much progress to the west. But as our inverted trough drifts westward across the Lone Star State, Laura may be able to venture further west than its predecessor.
230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Pesky upper trough continues to hang on.
Another hot afternoon with a mix of clouds and sun is on tap for most of the area, with the highest chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm residing across parts of SC LA.
252 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Thunderstorms forming and propagating along and behind a cold frontal boundary in moving through central and southwest North Dakota. We expect storms to primarily be elevated along and north of the cold front. Tonights lows will be in the lower 50s north and the lower 60s south.
A northerly influx of tropical moisture will bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms to mainly the higher elevations of the Sierra through Monday. The mid level ridge centered over the four corners area is remaining nearly stationary and the edge of the tropical surge of moisture off the coast will trigger a few thunderstorms across the Sierra this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon mainly due to orographic lifting.
Mid level ridge centered over the Four Corners will continue to expand eastward through tomorrow, with mid level heights slowly rising overhead and the flow more out of the northeast compared to northerly over the past few days. Broad surface ridging over the Southeast and weak lee troughing will continue to bring light south winds to the region. H85 temps continue to creep up slowly, and thus highs will be a bit warmer than yesterday.
Currently - Shower coverage has greatly diminished from this morning and now the main axis of showers is oriented from roughly L Tower to Wood's Wall East Crack, and including the Lower Keys. Notably the northeast quadrant is also the favorable location for tropical cyclone tornadoes, in addition to the expected thundery squalls. The Straits and Gulf waters south and west of the Lower Keys will have the best chance of realizing Tropical Storm conditions through Monday night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes look to prevail through the week thereafter as the western Atlantic ridge axis remains in control of the flow.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the low 90s were found across the area. A trof axis passed through the area today and an upper level wave was moving south across Illinois. This trof axis and upper level wave led to the development of showers and storms just to the east of our area. Discussion: It looks like the best chance for precip will be east of the area associated with a trof axis that is moving east. Weak surface ridging looks to be in place with clear skies. With slightly lower dewpoints than the last time we approached 100 degree heat indices, temperatures will actually be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The upper ridge near the 4-corners will nudge a bit and expand eastward through tomorrow as troughing in the eastern CONUS weakens. A surface pressure trough will remain well to the west of the FA in central New Mexico. Heights aloft will weaken as an inverted trough meanders north from southern Texas early this week. It should however combine with the inverted trough and lift it north and east of the forecast area.
By 12z Monday morning, may have another round of isolate morning showers this time to the west of the forecast area with the weak upper trof and surface trof in the vicinity.
Otherwise, warm south to southwest flow will persist with lows in the mid to upper 60s, and in the low 70s for the St. Decent WAA in the low levels during the day tomorrow with 850 temps rising to around 20 deg C, so expect highs in the low to mid 90s. Byrd Even though NAEFS indicates the strength of the upper level ridge that will build into the region through mid week is near climatological norms for this time of year, it will not remain in control over the region for very long.
The main difference will be that the flow aloft around this high will shift further northwest away from the Cowboy State. The H5 ridge continues to get nudged southward through the upcoming week, keeping the southwesterly flow going across the state.
249 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Strong ridging over the state is going no where over the next couple of days. This ridging is what will protect us from both Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura. Strong easterly winds thanks to the influence of the ridge and Hurricane Marco will cause the any storm activity that does pop up to head towards the west coast of Florida. As we get into our Monday Marco will continue to head away from us while Laura should be heading through Cuba due to the strong ridging keeping it south of Florida.
Ridging aloft will maintain VFR conditions with sfc winds light enuf to not impact aircraft ops thru the period. Mid level ridge centered over the Four Corners will continue to expand eastward through tomorrow, with mid level heights slowly rising overhead and the flow more out of the northeast compared to northerly over the past few days. Broad surface ridging over the Southeast and weak lee troughing will continue to bring light south winds to the region. H85 temps continue to creep up slowly, and thus highs will be a bit warmer than yesterday.
339 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 An area of low pressure was located in eastern North Dakota with a myriad of fronts extending from its center. An area of thunderstorms was occurring in the vicinity of the low at 230PM/1930Z. Dry high pressure is in control over the northern portion.
A weak mid-level trough over the Ohio Valley region will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours.
320 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The Ozarks remains underneath the inflection of a ridge to the west and a mean trough to the east.
An upper ridge to our west and upper low to our east.
134 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 A positive tilt upper trough that is shearing out will remain in place from the lower OH into the lower MS Valley just to our northwest.
1253 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Mid level clouds linger in the FNT to MBS area during the afternoon as the weak upper level trough slides through lower MI. Surface pressure features wash out in favor of diffuse high pressure and light wind over lower MI by Monday morning. Still more of the same Monday but with slightly higher temps and dewpoints as upper heights increase slightly as the large upper ridge over the western half of the U.
243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The steady build up of warm conditions across the region continues late this weekend, as a stout mid/upper ridge remains the dominant player influencing local weather. As the next few days progress, the ridge will actually continue to expand eastward, becoming a formidable character for most of the country's weather through early this upcoming week. The local effects from this ridge continuing its expansion will be continued quiet and above normal warmth. With the area also between two surface features, a ridge to the east and some upstream troughing, this will keep southerly flow at the surface, which will keep the low level atmosphere warm and stocked with at least some moisture, although dewpoints in the upper 60s isn't super oppressive.
High temperatures on Monday will be well into the 90s as a brief ridge emerges ahead of trough to the west. Monday night low temperatures will be warmer and depending on the time of arrival for the front, could be anywhere from upper 60s to upper 70s.
226 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The H5 ridge which has been responsible for dry weather over the last several days will continue to influence the region through Monday leading to temps well into the 90s with humidity continuing to increase slightly.
After a slightly cooler day today, temperatures will begin to warm up Monday, mainly for inland areas, due to a 591 DM upper high dominating the region.
Dew point temps are in the upper 60s and into the low 70s for the normal cropland areas.
Satellite imagery shows the mid to upper level trough over south Texas into northeast Mexico with the center of the mid level low near Corpus Christi. The mid to upper level trough is expected be nearly stationary for the rest of the day. The trough axis will then drift to the west-southwest tonight and be over the southern Brush Country into western Lower Rio Grande Valley. Models also depict upper level divergence may increase over the coastal waters as an upper level jet streak moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico to the east of the upper trough that will be drifting to the northwest.
220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 (Issued 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020) Tonight through Monday: Visible satellite loop shows CU field percolating a bit ahead of weak surface/925 trough axis. After passage of weak trough this evening, weak high pressure and DAVA should prevail. At this time have the highest pops in the north, trailing off a bit into the far south.
(This evening through Monday) The upper high will remain over the four corners area with the Plains under the influence of this ridge, especially as the trough over the Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley moves slowly east.
1209 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Broad ridging persists over the western and central CONUS.
An upper level ridge remains in place across the Rocky Mountain and Plains region. Overall today will be very similar to what occurred yesterday, but highs could be a degree or two warmer with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Overall heat index values will be fairly close to temperatures this afternoon with readings in the lower to middle 90s occur. The upper level ridge will move a little further east early this week allowing slightly warmer conditions.
Weak high pressure is situated to the east of Middle Tennessee with an upper trough sitting just to our west.
/Issued 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/ The H5 ridge which has been responsible for dry weather over the last several days will continue to influence the region through Monday leading to temps well into the 90s with humidity continuing to increase slightly.
High pressure building back through Arizona may limit thunderstorm coverage and push temperatures back up later this week, although there will still be some storms around.
638 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 An area of low pressure was located in eastern North Dakota with a myriad of fronts extending from its center. An area of thunderstorms was occurring in the vicinity of the low at 230PM/1930Z. Dry high pressure is in control over the northern portion.
Thunderstorms forming and propagating along and behind a cold frontal boundary in moving through central and southwest North Dakota. We expect storms to primarily be elevated along and north of the cold front. Tonights lows will be in the lower 50s north and the lower 60s south.
324 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Center of upper level high pressure over srn CO at mid-afternoon, and suspect rather paltry crop of afternoon convection so far today is a result of subsidence under the high. On Monday, models suggest a modest upturn in afternoon convection as center of the upper level high drifts south and mid- level moisture subtly increases, with areas along the Continental Divide looking most favored for precipitation.
Monday we will continue to be under the influence of the upper level ridge which will result in weak surface gradients.
Otherwise, high temperatures will trend downward a few degrees area wide but remain warmer than normal this week.
507 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Western CONUS ridge will slowly shift east and flatten in the period. Northern periphery jet stream will eventually sag south, supporting a more active pattern by the middle of the week, along with cooler weather.
These would be elevated storms associated with the low level jet.
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The Ozarks remains underneath the inflection of a ridge to the west and a mean trough to the east.
A positive tilt upper trough that is shearing out will remain in place from the lower OH into the lower MS Valley just to our northwest.
927 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 (Issued 927 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020) It should be dry the rest of the night under high pressure. DDV (Issued 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020) Tonight through Monday: Visible satellite loop shows CU field percolating a bit ahead of weak surface/925 trough axis. After passage of weak trough this evening, weak high pressure and DAVA should prevail. At this time have the highest pops in the north, trailing off a bit into the far south.
On Monday, the cold front extending from the low over Ontario will pass across the forecast area during peak heating. Moisture pooling ahead of the front will bring dewpoints in the lower 70s, with temperatures warming into the lower 90s south of I-94. Otherwise, we would likely sneak into the mid 90s along the Buffalo Ridge.
An increase in the low level jet to about 30kts as shown by the RAP model may support a southward turn in the storm motion causing activity to brush northern Nebraska. Aside from the trough and lapse rates, there are few other factors that appear promising for thunderstorm development over the forecast area. Farther north, a cold front moves moves through the Dakotas, but this will be too far out of reach to influence weather in Nebraska. After the trough passes, dew points in the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska will drop to the 50s, with 40s present in the far western edge of the CWA. A ridge currently centered over the Four Corners will build north today and tomorrow.
mainly to go a little cooler over parts of the eastern Ozarks. Otherwise, warm south to southwest flow will persist with lows in the mid to upper 60s, and in the low 70s for the St. Decent WAA in the low levels during the day tomorrow with 850 temps rising to around 20 deg C, so expect highs in the low to mid 90s. Byrd Even though NAEFS indicates the strength of the upper level ridge that will build into the region through mid week is near climatological norms for this time of year, it will not remain in control over the region for very long.
554 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The steady build up of warm conditions across the region continues late this weekend, as a stout mid/upper ridge remains the dominant player influencing local weather. As the next few days progress, the ridge will actually continue to expand eastward, becoming a formidable character for most of the country's weather through early this upcoming week. The local effects from this ridge continuing its expansion will be continued quiet and above normal warmth. With the area also between two surface features, a ridge to the east and some upstream troughing, this will keep southerly flow at the surface, which will keep the low level atmosphere warm and stocked with at least some moisture, although dewpoints in the upper 60s isn't super oppressive.
Stronger winds will be mixed to the surface, resulting in slight drying/warming of the lower column - but there should be a period where low-level moisture advection counteracts this enough to keep dewpoints from falling and therefore keeping HI values in excess of 108.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 84 71 87 73 / 20 40 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 83 70 88 70 / 40 30 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 68 89 70 / 30 30 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 83 66 87 66 / 40 40 20 20 10.
Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer compared to this morning given latest temp/dew-point trends.
This afternoon the upper high pressure continues to expand from the southwest states into the north central states. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s and dew points in were in the lower to mid 60s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s at 19Z. Tonight and Monday there will be little change in airmass as the upper high expands eastward over the central states.
852 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Our region remains under the influence of a trough of low pressure aloft emanating from Deep S Tx into NE Ar.
600 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 (This evening through Monday) The upper high will remain over the four corners area with the Plains under the influence of this ridge, especially as the trough over the Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley moves slowly east.
/issued 235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/ The upper ridge near the 4-corners will nudge a bit and expand eastward through tomorrow as troughing in the eastern CONUS weakens. A surface pressure trough will remain well to the west of the FA in central New Mexico. Heights aloft will weaken as an inverted trough meanders north from southern Texas early this week. It should however combine with the inverted trough and lift it north and east of the forecast area.
High pressure will provide us with mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds tonight as temperatures fall into the 65 to 70 degree range. Given the drier start to the day, expect highs to be several degrees warmer than today, likely around 90 at SDF/BWG. Broad ridging displaced poleward from Marco and then Laura should generally act to inhibit northward moisture transport.
/Issued 325 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020/ Region remains on the under the western periphery of the western Atlantic upper ridge through the short-term forecast period. Ample moisture for continued, diurnally oriented, scattered convection as the center of the upper ridge remains far enough east to keep the better subsidence at bay. The Bermuda ridge is forecast to expand and the tracks of Laura and Marco look far enough west to not directly impact our area.
353 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The large upper level ridge over the desert southwest this past weekend will slide east into the central plains early this week. As mentioned above the upper level ridge is expected to be the prevailing feature at the start of the week.
The mid-level trough axis that has been dominating our weather for the past several days will finally lift to the northeast tonight. At the surface, Hurricane Marco will enter the North-Central Gulf as high pressure becomes situated over the Carolinas. Despite mid and upper ridges building a bit further on Tuesday, weak low level convergence to our south over central AL and GA will result in showers and thunderstorms that may shift northward through the day into our area. With a more western track, Northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee will likely stay more under the ridge centered over Georgia and Alabama, which may keep us a bit drier through midweek. This scenario goes with the potential track of Marco north into Missouri, getting picked up by the upper-level flow, and becoming a low pressure system over the Ohio River Valley.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s across much of the area, with lower 80s west of the Mississippi River.
Surface observations and satellite imagery show mostly clear skies across the Rio Grande Valley this evening as an upper level low stays positioned over South Texas.
1111 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Western CONUS ridge will slowly shift east and flatten in the period. Northern periphery jet stream will eventually sag south, supporting a more active pattern by the middle of the week, along with cooler weather. More active northern tier flow will support flattening of the ridge this week, with chances for storms, albeit sct activity at best.
Another area we'll have to continue some small chances for rain will be down near Lake Cumberland where deeper moisture is rotating clockwise around an upper ridge centered off the SE Atlantic coast.
329 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Current WV satellite reveals an upper high over the Four Corners, open trough slowly moving eastward over the TN Valley, with northerly flow aloft consequently over the CWA. At the surface, weak lee trough is present across E CO/E NM. More of the same for Monday, however absolute CIN values look to tick back upward a bit, with convection only favored on the higher terrain to our west.
Temperatures will run a bit warmer than normal given upper ridging.
1132 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Center of upper level high pressure over srn CO at mid-afternoon, and suspect rather paltry crop of afternoon convection so far today is a result of subsidence under the high. On Monday, models suggest a modest upturn in afternoon convection as center of the upper level high drifts south and mid- level moisture subtly increases, with areas along the Continental Divide looking most favored for precipitation.
There is another low chance for showers/storms, mainly in the east tomorrow, as the broad upper-level trough supporting the previously mentioned vort max continues its trek eastward.
It will remain quiet on the weather front for today but it will warm up quite a bit with highs likely reaching the low 90s for much of the area with heat indices pushing into the upper 90s.
A weak upper trough will be moving across the area today, leading to slight chances for storms through the day. High pressure is expected across the area for the middle parts of this week. A weak upper trough will be moving across the area today, aiding in the isolated storms early this morning. The potential for isolated rain and storms will persist through the day as the trough tracks east. High temperatures look to get into the low 90s with dew points near 70. Dry conditions are expected throughout the duration of the short term as high pressure, both aloft and at the surface, expand into the area. It will, however, be hot and humid with widespread highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows near 70.
930 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 High pressure aloft will continue over the Southwest most of this week and continue hot weather to most of the region. The upper high is currently centered over the Four Corners, but the ridging will build back southwest a little more the next couple days after the remnant upper low from Genevieve get fully absorbed into the NE Pacific trough. As the upper high drifts south towards NW Mexico late in the week, temperatures could lower a few degrees.
High pressure remains centered near the 4-corners region during the short term period with the jet stream positioned near the U. /Canada border and a low pressure center area over the southern Gulf coast of Texas expected to migrate into west Texas and the southern high plains region by Tuesday night. That means more hot temperatures, dry conditions, and hazy skies under the high pressure area aloft.
High pressure is expected across the area into the middle parts of this week. Isolated convection remains possible into the early evening hours over the eastern/southeastern zones, due to the presence of a weak upper trough and little to no cap. Otherwise, upper ridging expected to expand into the Midwest by the middle of the week, although some weakness in the upper ridge locally may remain. Will continue to keep the later periods dry for now, given the expanding ridge and cap, however with high amounts of instability progged, will continue to keep an eye on this.
The smoke over SD has done little to temper the highs for today, so sticking with that mindset for tomorrow and keeping highs in the 90s as per guidance. When the forecast period opens on Tuesday, an upper level ridge axis is centered over the Dakotas into Nebraska, with some rather warm air residing in the column.
As the low level jet wanes in the coming hours, expect this activity to continue to weaken. Temperatures at 850 will be in the 30-32C range across the area both today and Tuesday as an upper level ridge continues to build overhead. A lack of large scale forcing and little surface convergence along the trough axis will lead to a dry and very warm Tuesday.