Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
955 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 9 PM / 03Z surface map showed a weak cold front nearly stalled over far north MS. North of I-40, Temperatures across the Midsouth were 4 to 7 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, while to the south, little change from last night. /issued 315 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ A backdoor cold front continues to move southward across the Mid-South this afternoon.
Isolated showers tonight will give way to dry weather as high pressure builds just offshore through the weekend.
Tonight and Friday High pressure and light winds will allow temperatures to once again plummet across the region this evening. The high will move off to the east on Friday, allowing winds to turn southeasterly with some modest warm air advection.
214 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 An U/L ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida today and over the weekend.
Winds shift to northerly as the low develops to our south, drawing that stratus layer back into the CWA. Still looks like the potential for very light freezing drizzle, however it takes a little longer to get going and may be closer to 12Z for the Pierre area. As the system overrides the area, that stratus layer thickens up to upwards of 8kft, and we may get some seeder-feeder to introduce snow or otherwise its again freezing drizzle of various intensities. If we actually get freezing rain in this area, the deep cold layer below the warm layer may be great enough to cool raindrops into sleet. The extended starts off with high pressure settling in over the region behind the exiting storm system.
A chance of freezing drizzle could impact areas in the James River Valley tomorrow. Did add some fog across the higher terrain of the southwest where the HRRR and RAP indicate some development tonight into Friday morning. Upper level analysis places modest ridge to the east of the Rockies, and low off the California coast. Upper ridge shifts east by early Friday, with flow becoming southwesterly as California low works its way into the desert southwest. Taking a look at forecast soundings, there still appears to be a risk of freezing drizzle developing over the area, which has been previously discussed. What we will see is winds turning northerly bringing some cooler air into our area, and a transition from any lingering freezing drizzle to light snow.
On Saturday we were thinking there was a chance for some freezing rain early, but that threat looks to have ended with a delay in the onset of the precipitation.
Very weak/broad short wave trough over FL quickly shifts SE of the area this afternoon, with a ridge building over FL in its wake. Light/calm early morning winds will easterly behind the ECSB, with a more well-defined synoptic east flow starting to take hold overnight on the SW flank of the strengthening ridge. Mins generally in the U50s inland and L60s near the coast, but a little cooler for the interior north (M50s) and warmer along the Treasure Coast barrier islands (M-U60s).
But low level moisture will increase leading to areas of low clouds that will be on the low side of MVFR or high side of IFR for both KLBB and KPVW arriving near daybreak Friday and persisting through much of Friday morning before breaking up. Latest guidance is beginning to hint at a slight chance of precipitation from weak elevated convection east of the dryline in the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains where the best surface moisture convergence and lift will reside along with dewpoints that struggle to climb into the low 50s. A dryline is still expected to push eastward across the region late tomorrow night as an upper trough approaches from the Four Corners. Winds will become light Saturday night ahead of an upper low over the Desert Southwest and an approaching cold front from the north.
1221 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 High pressure north of the region will track southeast overnight.
An upper ridge over the central states shifts gradually into the eastern states during the period as a vigorous system advances from the southwest states into the Plains. A weak and diffuse surface trof oriented roughly across central Mississippi/Alabama lifts northward on Friday as a southerly flow is established over the region. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s inland to near 50 at the immediate coast then trend warmer for Friday night when lows range from around 50 inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Friday and Saturday primarily range from the lower 80s inland to the mid 70s at the coast.
/issued 955 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ 9 PM / 03Z surface map showed a weak cold front nearly stalled over far north MS. North of I-40, Temperatures across the Midsouth were 4 to 7 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, while to the south, little change from last night. /issued 315 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ A backdoor cold front continues to move southward across the Mid-South this afternoon.
Winds have generally switched to a mostly northeast direction behind this dry cold front. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 74 51 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 73 48 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 72 49 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 69 45 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Today and Friday: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows ridging over the central CONUS with the main weather maker in the form of a trough moving onshore over the western US. Despite the insulation from increased cloud cover, temperatures will still fall to the upper 20's to just over freezing across the area, with a few pockets of slightly lower visibility possible in some of the lower stratus. Going forward into Friday, strong southeasterly flow is expected to take hold by mid- morning, pumping up both the afternoon temperatures and dewpoints across the area as the trough to the west approaches.
A weak front continues to reside just south of the forecast area this morning with high pressure across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Aloft, weak northwest flow continues with troughing just offshore the east coast and ridging across the plains. For today, the weak front will lift north while the upper level ridge axis shifts east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.
216 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 A dry warm front will push northward across the area today and tonight.
The passage of a cold front this morning left an unstable upper trough in its wake this afternoon and evening. That upper trough will continue to exit tonight. Another trough offshore is projected to drop southward into this weekend, leaving the area in a drier pattern with an increasing northeast wind into the weekend. The low level southwest flow should favor some stratus development in these areas, as well as that expanding fog. Afternoon mixing and drier air starting to come in, as that aforementioned offshore trough starts southward later Friday into Saturday starts to turn the flow northeast, the stratus should start to break up/lift. /MSCote' 06Z TAFS: An upper trough exits, as does the precipitation potential, for GEG/SFF/COE.
High Pressure currently in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic will shift into the western Atlantic today into Saturday, supporting strengthening easterly flow over South Florida. At the mid-lvls, ridging will build over the eastern US resulting in dynamic subsidence and fostering largely dry conditions over the area. Temperatures today and Saturday will be fairly typical of an early March easterly regime with highs in the low 80s over the east coast with mid to even upper 80s expected over the Interior and west coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s over the Interior to the low 70s over the east coast metro.
Overnight lows will be about average for this time of year, with lows in the mid to upper 50s across the north and across the interior, except northeast Lake and northwest Volusia where lows will be in the low 50s, and low 60s from Melbourne southward. Good boating conditions continue Friday as the ridge axis remains over north Florida.
With clear skies, temperatures will range from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south, which is close to the consensus of available guidance. Models continue to spread rain across the PAH forecast area Saturday night as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
1039 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Today: Weather will be pretty quiet today with notably cooler temperatures expected compared to yesterday. Under the influence of high pressure to the north, winds are expected to remain out of the east for much of the day. Friday: Upper ridging will shift into the area for Friday allowing winds to turn back to the south and draw in some warmer temperatures. While better chances for storm activity exists north of our area closer to the low, thunderstorms will be possible for the area Saturday evening as a cold front approaches. Regardless, modest mid level lapse rates along with ample bulk shear should support a few stronger storms along the cold front Saturday night.
300 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 Upper level northwest confluent flow/general subsidence in control today with an upper level ridge axis arriving over the Central Great Lakes around midnight. With high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic States this evening, warm advection will only ramp up furthering tonight and Saturday, with 850 MB temps progged to reach 8-10 C over southeast Michigan.
High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 80s, although dry conditions will help it feel a little cooler. Low temperatures overnight are forecast in the upper 40s to low 50s across the western half of the area with the eastern half in the low to mid 50s due to increasing cloud cover.
954 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 For the third day in a row, high pressure heavily influences the weather across western and central WY, although the upper-level ridge axis has moved to the east over the WY/NE/SD border. At the same time, a surface cold front will start pushing into the Big Horn Basin and Johnson County. Friday night into Saturday morning will see the southwest US low, a new Oregon low, and the Canadian cold front come together somewhat over the forecast area.
The high will be centered across the mid-Atlantic on Friday with ridging down the Apalachians. Expect overnight lows in the mid 50s with daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s away from the Gulf Coast, areas along the Gulf Coast are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.
359 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 High pressure will be overhead today and then move offshore tonight.
Cold front with light rain showers has stalled along a line through Hells Canyon to Ontario/OR to Rome/OR. An upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will approach on Friday and revive the front and light rain showers and also move them eastward. A better chance of showers along with lowering snow levels will come from the upper low on Saturday as it moves into northern California and then southern Nevada.
Highs Saturday are expected to reach well into the 60s before a cold front arrives Saturday night with a chance of showers and colder temperatures behind it. Fri night lows will be a good 10 degrees or more warmer than tonight from both continued WAA as arrival of some additional cloud cover with the approaching warm front. Could be a few showers in far NW areas late in the day but bulk of any rainfall still looks to wait for the arrival of the cold front and first upper level wave Saturday night.
Accordingly, afternoon temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler over our eastern zones, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s near the KS/CO border, and mid 70s in central KS. Southerly winds will continue to draw more humid air back into southwest Kansas Friday night as a cold front drops south across Nebraska. An area of low pressure at the surface will develop over extreme eastern Colorado as our first upper level trough approaches from the west. On Saturday the first in a series of upper level troughs will cross western Kansas as an area of low pressure at the surface moves across western Kansas at the same time. A cold front at the surface, located across north central Kansas early Saturday morning will begin to move south into southwest Kansas by the early afternoon.
1209 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 A dry warm front will push northward across the area today and tonight.
502 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 The front that moved southward through the forecast area yesterday is resting across southwestern Missouri and northern Arkansas this morning, while aloft, a ridge is moving eastward through the central CONUS. Through the day, the front will slowly push northward along southerly flow in the lower levels. As the ridge axis passes over the region mid- day, the mid-level winds will back to the southwest, helping shift the surface front north of the forecast area by the end of the day. MRM The low will move northeast across Iowa and into the Great Lakes region Saturday night, dragging a surface cold front into the region during the evening.
Today Through Saturday Night Upper ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico will expand slightly today, pushing stalled surface boundary currently over northeast/ north central Arkansas back north and out of the region. As the upper ridge shifts eastward through tomorrow, low and mid level rh will increase. At the same time, leeside cyclogenesis will drag a cold front toward the region from the High Plains.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 70s, with winds on land from the northeast around 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the Southeastern states and the SW Atlantic, with a stationary front extending from the Carolina coast to the Southern Plains, and strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Aloft, a trough is exiting eastward from the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states, with a broad ridge extending from the western Gulf of Mexico northward through the Northern Plains, and a deep closed low spinning just offshore from Southern California.
High pressure building into the area today will lead to continued dry conditions locally. Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid-80s, with a few upper 70s possible along the immediate coast.
A series of weather systems will bring gusty winds over the weekend along with cooler temperatures. The gradient will continue to tighten as the low near the southern California coast shears into northern Arizona this afternoon.
The past couple of days have been warmer than most model forecasts and guidance, and it looks like we will see that happen once again as south winds develop and an upper level ridge builds up over the region. There will be more clouds and south winds will become quite gusty to 30mph at times as we sit between high pressure off the east coast and a low pressure system over the Ms Valley.
Expect another mild night tonight with lows in the low 60s and patchy fog. We will get an early taste of Summer on Saturday with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s for most of the area. The warmer temperatures stick around for Saturday night with lows in the upper 60s.
312 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with developing trof over the western CONUS. Upper low at the base of the trof is near southern CA (and will be responsible for our wintry weather later tonight and Saturday). Fog will continue to dissipate this morning with warm front lifting north/east across the region. Thermal profiles continue to support a short period of freezing rain across northeast WY and far western SD tonight before precip changes over to snow. Upper low will cross NEB on Saturday and into southeast SD by early Saturday evening. The highest accumulations will be across the Black Hills and areas south/east.
958 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 It is shaping up to be another beautiful day across the Florida peninsula as high pressure remains in control. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations area showing sunny skies and temperatures already in the low to mid 70s. Pleasant boating conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure remains over the region through the weekend producing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
/issued 214 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022/ An U/L ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida today and over the weekend.
This high should move towards the Mid Atlantic/ New England coast by the late afternoon. Would not be surprised at a few places reaching the lower 80s.
Initial upper wave will lift into the central Plains on Saturday with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma Saturday evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid-level ridge axis east of the Texas coast and low pressure trough across the western states slowly getting its act together will combine to gradual strengthen the pressure gradient, continue the warming trend and increase the humidity but no rain is anticipated today or Saturday. No rain is anticipated with very shallow moisture and warmer drier air aloft.
456 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 Aviation - Becoming windy this weekend - A low pressure system over the Central Plains Saturday morning will strengthen as it moves ene to around 990 mb near SSM by 12Z Sun. Kinematics look favorable for gusty showers/embedded storms Saturday night along/ahead of the cold front due to a 50-60 kt llj.
Low pressure off the California coast is starting to spread moisture inland. The southerly flow remains fairly light early this morning but will start to increase as the pressure gradient tightens up with the low starting to push to the east and into Arizona later today. As the precipitation pushes to the east, we will see snow start to fall across the higher elevation, mainly above 6000 ft. While this low doesn't appear to tap into the Pacific moisture quite as much as the first low, there will be enough moisture around and we could see additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches along the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau.
This feature will begin to move to the north as a warm front today. By Saturday, a ridge aloft will shift over the East Coast as a trough deepens over the Plains. Southwest flow will set up across Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley.
602 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 High pressure centered over the region will maintain a dry and stable environment this taf period. Winds then becoming southeasterly tonight as high pressure settles to the east. Upper level northwest confluent flow/general subsidence in control today with an upper level ridge axis arriving over the Central Great Lakes around midnight. With high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic States this evening, warm advection will only ramp up furthering tonight and Saturday, with 850 MB temps progged to reach 8-10 C over southeast Michigan.
433 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with developing trof over the western CONUS. Upper low at the base of the trof is near southern CA (and will be responsible for our wintry weather later tonight and Saturday). Fog will continue to dissipate this morning with warm front lifting north/east across the region. Thermal profiles continue to support a short period of freezing rain across northeast WY and far western SD tonight before precip changes over to snow. Upper low will cross NEB on Saturday and into southeast SD by early Saturday evening. The highest accumulations will be across the Black Hills and areas south/east.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This will lead to southerly low-level flow around this high pressure today.
/issued 304 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid-level ridge axis east of the Texas coast and low pressure trough across the western states slowly getting its act together will combine to gradual strengthen the pressure gradient, continue the warming trend and increase the humidity but no rain is anticipated today or Saturday. No rain is anticipated with very shallow moisture and warmer drier air aloft.
The well advertised pattern change to a cooler, more active weather pattern begins today as high pressure gives way to an area of low pressure moving into northern California and southern Oregon. Moisture associated with this low will bring rain and snow to the area through the weekend. Precip today looks primarily focused across the higher terrain for a good chunk of the day before eventually spreading into valley locations later this evening and into the overnight. Either way, clouds, much cooler temps and a return to winter is expected for eastern Idaho the next few days.
As for today, lots of sunshine and mild temperatures are expected as a 500 mb ridge moves overhead. The south winds will increase Saturday as low pressure deepens over the central Plains. High temps will reach the lower to mid 70s. Showers and isolated thunder will arrive Saturday night as the low progresses from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. The shower activity will be ahead of the trailing cold front. Lows will only fall into the lower 60s in many areas due to cloudy skies and brisk south winds.
Cooler air with this system will linger over the area this weekend, bringing colder overnight temperatures. Latest high resolution guidance has upped QPF amounts along certain ridges, and have thus decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory primarily for Scott Mtn Summit on Highway 3, where 2 to 3 inches of snow are possible late this afternoon and this evening. Winds are expected to be sub-advisory (less than 45 mph), but will likely be blustery all day, with the coast, interior ridges, and some valleys in southern Mendocino and Lake counties possibly seeing gusts reaching around 30 to 40 mph.
The low level jet strengthens tonight with stratus re-developing and mild conditions. Low temperatures Saturday morning are forecast to be mostly in the low 60s. An upper level low across southern California ejects northeast later today and into the central Plains on Saturday. Slightly warmer tomorrow across central and eastern areas, with many locations along the I-35 corridor in the low 80s Saturday afternoon after low clouds gradually mix out.
An upper jet and northward moving warm front will bring freezing rain to the area late tonight. Freezing rain will change to rain quickly Saturday morning over all but northcentral Wisconsin, where it may continue through midday. Very cold pavement temperatures could make for icy roads and sidewalks for awhile even after air temperatures warm above freezing. Highs will range from the upper 30s in the Northwoods to the low 50s in the Southern Fox Valley.
Aloft, prevailing upper-level ridge today to give way to southwest flow as an upper-trough ejects east of the Rockies tonight. Showers will also increase in coverage on Saturday as convergence increases ahead of approaching cold front.
The lowest RH values today will be in the mid slope and higher terrain areas of the mountains, which will be above the low level inversion and have deeper mixing. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 51 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 48 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 73 49 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 45 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 10 10.
Fog and freezing drizzle expanding eastward this morning, and using lower visibility as a proxy for where the freezing drizzle is occuring. High pressure sinks south from Canada for slightly colder than normal temperatures and dry weather through the weekend.
The pressure gradient tightens more on Saturday as the trough extends through the Texas Panhandle, leading to breezy conditions with sustained winds over 20 mph in the afternoon. Persisting warm air advection will lead to warmer highs on Saturday, ranging from low to mid 80s across much of South Texas with the exception of along the coast where temps will max in the mid 70s.
A cold front and associated stratiform area of precipitation continues to sag slowly southward and weaken this morning as it passes through north-central Idaho and west-central MT. Slick spots will also pop up after brief valley snow showers, black ice may also develop as wet roads cool to freezing early this morning. Light northerly flow develops over the weekend allowing for mostly dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures.