Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WILL INCLUDE SE OREGON ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND A WEAK JET MAX AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FEED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT EARLY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BUT A THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT DEVELOPMENT OFF THE OWYHEES OR SW ID HIGHLANDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE LOW ELEVATIONS NEAR THE OR/ID BORDER WILL KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.
354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO DALLAS TO ABILENE AND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NRN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING OVER RIDGE FROM UPPER LOW ALONG WEST COAST.
230 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST. WOULD EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE TODAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PULL THE MORE SOUPY AIR INTO THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NOSE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SUBSIDENT REGIME EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WITH ABSENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DECENT DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT STILL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. 500 MB RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO NEW MEXICO.
248 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO PA FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE BEST DYNAMICS TRACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH. GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. REMAINS OF ANA AID IN SHIFTING THE WINDS MORE TO THE WEST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GETS INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE UPPER LVL TROUGH IS RATHER STRONG. IT LAGS THE COLD FRONT.
137 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT LIFTING THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALL ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. OUT RUNNING THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER FORCING. BUT WITH WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE TUESDAY AND SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE AREA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WYOMING TO FAR WEST TEXAS. THERE WAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR LUBBOCK TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. BUT EVEN WITH THIS RIDGING THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND ENTER OUR CWA AROUND NOON TODAY AND GET TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PER A LIFTING SPEED MAX INTO ARKANSAS AND UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY (08Z ANALYSIS HAS IT JUST WEST OF THE EDWARDS ESCARPMENT) WILL PUT OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL ENTER A NEAR 1.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY.
246 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015 07Z surface obs show the cold front through the forecast area and stretching from south central OK into west central MO. Aloft water vapor imagery still shows the closed upper low over the plains, but it's gradually lifting north through SD. For today and tonight, we'll finally be able to begin drying out as a cool Canadian high pressure system continues to build into the central plains. In any case, cold air advection through the morning is expected to keep highs in the lower and mid 60s. It appears as though favorable conditions for radiational cooling will set up as the center of the high pressure system moves into central KS causing winds to become light and variable with clear skies.
426 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 DRIER DAY IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AFTER A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS. HRRR AND NAM12 GENERATING A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
THIS COMPLEX WAS MOVING SLOWLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS DIFFICULT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW DOWN WARMING A LITTLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S WEST AND MID-UPPER 80S EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NW FA AND WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT. WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH GOOD ALIGNMENT OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOCATION OF COLD FRONT AND BEST LIFT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE PREVAILING ANTICYCLONE.
A COLD UPPER LOW (THAT HELPED TO PRODUCE FRONT RANGE SNOW YESTERDAY). WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS HEADED NNE. IT WAS HELPING SHIFT THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FURTHER EASTWARD. MORE MOISTURE PRESENT AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS.
Rain Ending this Morning then Dry and Cooler through An area of showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder are currently spreading east across the eastern Ozarks early this morning. This precipitation is occurring ahead of a cold front which is pushing east through the area, and at 3 AM was located just west of the Highway 65 corridor. Behind the front a slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area as highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s occur both today and Tuesday afternoons. Upper level ridging will build east into the central U.
330 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2015 A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE FIRST OF TWO PAC NW UPPER LOWS THAT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAYS A LITTLE COOLER BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ITS FALLING HGTS WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER NRN CA.
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR. WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE SFC TROF LINE AND AWAY FROM THE RDG BLDG BACK IN AND SOME MID LVL STABLE AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE PREFNTL TROF EARLIER TODAY MAY BE STABILIZING THE AIRMASS AHD OF THE TRUE FNT.
349 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015 Base of upper trough moving east of the area this morning as brief upper ridging begins to move over the region today.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MO VALLEY TODAY ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CSRA.
354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 AM WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING.
07Z surface obs show the cold front through the forecast area and stretching from south central OK into west central MO. Aloft water vapor imagery still shows the closed upper low over the plains, but it's gradually lifting north through SD. For today and tonight, we'll finally be able to begin drying out as a cool Canadian high pressure system continues to build into the central plains. In any case, cold air advection through the morning is expected to keep highs in the lower and mid 60s. It appears as though favorable conditions for radiational cooling will set up as the center of the high pressure system moves into central KS causing winds to become light and variable with clear skies.
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE I HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. RETURN FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER WEATHER.
1206 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015 Convection has been struggling to intensify along a cold front over eastern KS for the past couple of hours.
MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NE STATES THROUGH 12Z TUES. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
Winds will be light and variable before a cold front moves through the area this morning with elevated and gusty north to northeast winds. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015/ Dry air in place across the entire area today so no severe weather expected, but a weak cold front arrives tomorrow and will be located around the lower Trans Pecos tomorrow afternoon possibly serving as a focus for severe convection. High pressure behind the front slides east Tuesday bringing a southeast return flow and cloudy skies keeping temperatures well below normal.
339 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT DIMINISHING TRENDS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
415 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE LAST WEEKEND HAD MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER WITH WIDESPREAD 60S.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE FA TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS GIVEN RECENT WIDESPREAD SNOWS AND FREEZING TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST WITH ASSOCIATED REFLECTED SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPING SW OF THE FA. HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND STRONGER LL FGEN. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED TUE GIVEN WAA AND INCREASING LL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
/ISSUED 347 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ H5 trough Hudsons Bay to central Rockies progressing east leaving energy behind in north CA/NV which cuts off by 12z Fri. Meanwhile H5 ridge holds over B.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST.
954 PM MST THU DEC 31 2015 QUICK ZFP UPDATE FOR SOME FREEZING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CQC AND SRR AREAS. A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT KROW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TRICKY AS A SMALL WARM LAYER NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE COULD MEAN SOME SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FOR A WHILE NAMELY OVER CHAVES.
RAIN IS JUST ABOUT DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MAIN BULK OF RAIN IS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE WITH THE HELP OF NORTHERLY WINDS.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
LBB AIRPORT IS ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A SE- NW BAND OF STEADY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEPOSITED A GLAZE OF ICE OVER MUCH OF THE CITY OF LUBBOCK AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH REVEAL STEADY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN/AROUND THE LUBBOCK AREA HAS EXPANDED TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE PAST HOUR.
COOLER AND WETTER TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR. COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS SE GA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE. COLD FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH FROM SE GA DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MUCH COOLER NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS SE GA WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS NE FL.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER 20S. QUITE MUTED DIURNAL RISE TODAY WITH 925MB THERMAL TROF OVER AREA. CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT THERMAL TROFS EASTWARD SWEEP INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY.
1107 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
1240 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
THESE CLOUDS WERE COVERING MUCH OF THE DVN CWA (EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH) AND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WITH A WARMER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE DAY I HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF RAIN CHANCES THERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY.
Upper air and moisture channel data shows area of clouds over Mn that associated with weak upper trof that will rotate through northern IL late tonight and Fri morning. After the weak wave moves through tonight, drier air over the region Friday as we remain in a northwest flow aloft pattern with the main upper trof over the east coast. Series of weak cold fronts move into region to reinforce the cold air over IL.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
1118 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONGIHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. /ISSUED 524 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA.
347 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CLOSER TO HOME THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN FORCING THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE PAST WEEK.
/TODAY/ WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO LACK OF ICE WOULD HAVE PROBABLY LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING FORMED. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN MOS TODAY FOR HIGHS.
BETTER THAN 100M H500 HEIGHT RISES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROF. MEANWHILE H5 RIDGING AND MID LEVEL /H8-H5/ WARM ADVECTION IS EVIDENT BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ATTM.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILE WARMER THAN -10 C ALL POINT TOWARDS A MARGINAL AT BEST SETUP.
1036 PM MST THU DEC 31 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KROW AND KLVS WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY THANKS IN-PART TO LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. QUICK ZFP UPDATE FOR SOME FREEZING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CQC AND SRR AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TRICKY AS A SMALL WARM LAYER NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE COULD MEAN SOME SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FOR A WHILE NAMELY OVER CHAVES.
1240 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
Mixing is expected to persist thru the night, which shud help keep temps slightly warmer despite the clear sky. This will be offset somewhat with upper level ridge building into the region which will help keep the area dry.
310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01. 06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
245 AM MST FRI JAN 1 2016 WIND CHILLS NOT QUITE AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MEAN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGHS WILL BE CONFINED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
Near the surface, a large area of high pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest southeast into the Western High Plains.
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DSS SUPPORT CALLS UNCOVERED FEW PROBLEMS AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND FORTUNATELY LIFT IS ON THE INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE DRIZZLE OVER TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE. FARTHER SOUTH THE BAND EAST OF LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TO NORTHWEST CATSKILLS.
412 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
424 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
429 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PRODUCED RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS PREPARES TO CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL BE WITHIN SPLIT FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
241 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. BROAD COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROF DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS FAVORS KEEPING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO OUR WEST THRU THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.