Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 The morning surface analysis shows a cold front just to the northwest and high pressure set up across the Tennessee Valley. This thunderstorm activity could lead to a bust in the high temperatures this afternoon and therefore tended to go a little under the NBM guidance today. Given the better focus for convection begins to push north and heights show a slight rise will lean toward more of a scattered coverage for Tuesday afternoon, with the higher PoP numbers in the east and southeast. This means highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in 95 to 100 degree range.
Upper ridging, centered across the eastern United States, will continue to have an influence on our weather. Temperatures will once again rise into the lower to mid 90s across the region. Dewpoints should lower through the day into the lower 70s. However, as was the case yesterday, these will only reach the lower 70s and should bring enough moisture for conditions to feel unpleasant at times.
Also given the cooler temperatures and lower cloud bases, high winds will be less of a threat. There are small thunderstorm chances Tuesday evening as western Kansas will be situated along the southern edge of the westerlies with a front close by and the upper level ridge still suppressed into the southern plains. After Tuesday, upper level ridging will develop across the central and eastern plains and this will tend to suppressed precipitation.
Surface and satellite observations show the presence of a backdoor cold front moving along eastern portions of the Divide in Glacier National Park this morning. Breezy northeast winds can be expected across western portions of Glacier Park this morning and across the Flathead Valley as this cold front moves across the Divide.
319 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 319 AM CDT A nice day is expected across the area today as high pressure dominates across the western Great Lakes. Seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected with low humidity. Winds will generally be light out of the north-northwest, but an afternoon lake breeze will shift inland across northeastern IL and northwestern IN resulting in an east-northeasterly wind shift and slightly cooler conditions. Upstream convection will dictate the strength of the trough, but it does appear at this time that deeper forcing from the trough and some marginal upper-level jet support should be enough to erode capping Tuesday afternoon and allow convection to initiate across the area.
105 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A cold front will move south into the area tonight. A weak cold front is still poised to move into the region tonight. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Highs will be a little cooler, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mild temperatures to continue Monday night with lows from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
307 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 General pattern remains largely unchanged across the region today through tomorrow as flat upper ridging persists. Mid and upper level ridge axis holds in a little longer a shunts any potential frontal incursions well to the north.
1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A calm and quite night is in store for southern Wisconsin as high pressure builds into the region from the west. High pressure will approach from the west tonight, moving overhead on Monday. Breezy west to northwest winds tonight will ease tomorrow as the high moves into the area. The high will strengthen a bit Tuesday as it gradually slides eastward. South to southeast winds will increase Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of approaching low pressure.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into around 90 degrees with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. A slight chance of storms are possible Tuesday night followed by a dry period through at least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains suppressing any activity from forming.
351 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Clouds will diminish today as a ridge of high pressure shifts across the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will bring less humid conditions today.
High pressure aloft setting up near the four corners region will bring an increasingly moist southerly flow aloft into into western Utah early this week. The upper high setting up in vicinity of the four corners region Monday will open up western Utah in an increasingly moist southerly flow beginning late Monday afternoon.
A frontal boundary will have stalled out across the middle of the Quad State, limited in its southward progression by high pressure which has taken up residence towards the southeast this week. Low pressure in the Northern Plains on Tuesday will set up southerly flow ahead of it, which will lift the front towards the northeast out of the area, but not without more shower and storm activity.
With an overall cooler surface dewpoint and ambient temperature field expected today, looks like today will be the first day since the middle of last week where we won't have a heat advisory in effect for any of the CWA.
Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 50s in north central South Dakota and the low 60s everywhere else.
The band of thunderstorms near the state line seems to have developed along a weak cold front in the vicinity.
It is being suppressed quite a bit by the ridging to the northeast.
An upper level ridge will remain in place across the southern tier of the CONUS with a weakness in the ridge as a weak trough has developed from the South Plains northward to southwestern Kansas. This trough/weakness will shift ever-so-slowly eastward today. Meanwhile, a low-mid level instability axis is progged to develop across the western third of the forecast area, a trough of instability across the west, another axis across northeastern New Mexico per progs of 850-700 mb theta-e.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with easterly flow favoring seabreeze storms across the western Big Bend and Panhandle.
This will bring in a reinforced wave of 'cooler' air and veer winds to the NW. Lows are forecast to be near or slightly below normal, ranging from the lower 50s in the Northwoods to around 60 across the Fox Valley, and low 60s along the lake shore. Winds will be light and highs will range from the lower 70s in north- central WI and along the lakeshore, and in the upper 70s to near 80 across the Fox Valley and central WI.
Model soundings don't show evidence of an inversion to overcome, with CAPE values on the high end of 2000-3000 J/kg. SPC Day 2 has the aforementioned area under a Marginal Risk 700mb temperatures look to stay elevated to the west of Laramie Range in the 15-17C range for Tuesday, so it looks to be warmer in our western zones for Tuesday afternoon compared to the eastern zones where 700mb temps are 10-13C resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. Still having some issues with PACNW low pressure system though. depressing the high to the southeast.
Some of the CAMs show another MCS developing across northwest KS and southwest NE ahead of a stronger H5 trough translating east across the northern and central Plains. Highs across the northern counties will only reach the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday through Tuesday night, the southern extent of the H5 trough axis will move east across eastern KS. Once the H5 trough axis passes east of the CWA late Tuesday night, the showers and thunderstorms will become more widely scattered.
251 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Current surface map places weak trof over eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming with cold front dropping into northern Montana. Cold front slips into the forecast area this afternoon. With MLCAPE around 2000J/KG along and ahead of the cold front, scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening. Upper high builds across the central CONUS for the last half of the week, with southwest flow across the Northern Plains.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Broad, mid-level ridging lies overhead, with a weak surface pressure field.
A weak cold front will reach into the area late week, increasing coverage of TSTMs. Upper-level ridge will significantly weaken into Tuesday.
1106 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Cold front has now moved to near Springfield Illinois to Columbia line.
and Tuesday A weak cold front will move across the area this morning accompanied by some clouds. Much cooler and drier weather is expected this afternoon as high pressure moves into Wisconsin. High temperatures will be around five degrees cooler than normal.
A few showers and a storm or two could also move into far northwest SD late tonight/early Monday as a weak cold front approaches the area. Water vapor shows broad trof extending from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains. Weak inverted trof over eastern WY resulting in increasing return flow across our western zones. Still expecting a strong/severe storm or two to develop along the inverted trof by later this afternoon, with activity moving into the Black Hills and far southwest SD. A stronger northern stream trof will push a cold front through the Northern Plains on Monday. Should see a return to warmer temps in the mid to late week time frame as flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwest, although the flow will remain disturbed for a nearly daily chance of storms.
Upper level high pressure remains over the area for the next couple of days with hot days and mild overnight temperatures. Upper ridge remains over the area. Upper ridge with dry northwest flow Monday and highs in the 90s. An approaching upper trough will turn the flow more westerly late Tuesday. As the upper trough moves into the region Tue night expect increasing clouds and wind.
1115 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Temps will be much warmer overnight compared to recent night, and dewpoints stay sticky in the mid 60s to low 70s, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight.
Dewpoints will fall with passage during the day as high pressure moves across the region. Highs today will range from the low 80s north to the upper 80s Detroit area as lower dewpoints will allow for good diurnal warming with plenty solar insulation through some CU and high cirrus. Highs will continue seasonable in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints slowly increasing as surface flow veers more southeasterly.
Across our region, temperatures in the lower 90s I-10 corridor of SE TX/SW LA, mid 90s north of I-10 across Inland SE TX/C LA. By Tuesday, the wave axis moves further west into Texas, with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms across all of SE TX and W/SW LA.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Monday for the lower Grand Canyon. Storm activity on Monday is expected to be similar to today with limited moisture, and a capping inversion associated with high pressure aloft limiting convection. On Tuesday upper level support is going to move into the region from California as a weak upper level low transits the area. Timing of the low will be crucial, but some models are hinting at some shear possible of organizing storms that do develop into longer lasting and stronger thunderstorms than are typical to a late July monsoonal pattern.
/issued 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper level heights continue to fall across West Central Texas as our area remains on the southern periphery of a broad upper level high pressure that stretches across the southeast U.
240 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A few showers will linger Monday morning as a cold front moves through the area. For Monday night, high pressure builds in with light winds, clear skies and of course typical valley fog formation.
107 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. Strong upper level ridging will continue Monday, providing very hot and humid conditions once again with heat indices 105-109 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of the forecast area, with highs in the low to mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. A wetter pattern will begin Tuesday as the ridge breaks down and gives way to a few rounds of frontal passages.
While the base of an upper trough will be positioned to our west, gradually increasing convective inhibition should reduce the number of showers that develop this evening.
Weak cold front will continue to settle southward through the region today, although the primary focusing mechanism for additional thunderstorms will likely be an outflow boundary from widespread convection along the I-70 corridor last evening.
The most likely scenario will be for activity developing across the high plains drifting eastward across the area during the overnight hours. Rising heights and increasing thickness will bring another mild day on Wed with highs in the lower 90s. As we move through the latter portion of the week and into the weekend we begin to see the mid/upper ridge build back across the Mississippi Valley area.
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Temps will be much warmer overnight compared to recent night, and dewpoints stay sticky in the mid 60s to low 70s, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight.
Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s will occur on Tuesday with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. An upper level ridge will start to build back over the region by the end of the week into the weekend.
Tomorrow should be one of the cooler days of the month across the area, with most coastal locations seeing highs in the upper 80s and inland areas just creeping into the 90s.
These storms are within the broad trough that dips across the northern U. Lows tonight should mostly be in the 60s, but cooler 50s are forecast for parts of Wisconsin.
Forecast Confidence: High High pressure is building into the region from the northern Great Plains and Canada this morning. The better chance for showers and storms comes during the day Tuesday with the passage of an upper level trough.
Today Through Tuesday Night The pattern will begin changing today as persistent ridging to our east further weakens and allows for more convective activity and slightly cooler temps (but not by much). Model guidance shows a number of waves riding along the northern periphery of the upper ridge across KS/MO with a more substantial wave traversing the Gulf and into coastal TX by this evening. Thinking the highest PoP should reside across N/E AR closer to the more energetic wave, but plenty of instability and deep moisture will support scattered storms virtually area-wide. Temps will be slightly cooler as well owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Did keep some PoP in overnight Tuesday as an inverted trough pivots across E TX and could support lingering post-sunset storms.
310 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure remains over the region today. This starts to break down the high pressure over the region, allowing for more and more afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days. We never get any shift in winds though high pressure will be weakening, so we will continue to remain under the humid, hot air mass sitting over the region.
The center of the east-west 500mb ridge has shifted to the south of the area thanks to a long wave trough over the northern plains forcing it southward. At the surface a weak cool front stretches from the lower Great Lakes WSW to into central KS and continuing into the OK panhandle.
342 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Comparatively cooler, drier weather is anticipated for Monday, though some showers remain possible across northern West Virginia and Maryland in the afternoon.
541 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Current surface map places weak trof over eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming with cold front dropping into northern Montana. Cold front slips into the forecast area this afternoon. With MLCAPE around 2000J/KG along and ahead of the cold front, scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening. Upper high builds across the central CONUS for the last half of the week, with southwest flow across the Northern Plains.
7 inches near the Lower Keys, but higher moisture is already attempting to move back in with a cluster of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southeastern Straits, extending northward to near the Middle and Upper Keys. The Lower Keys and surrounding waters have even dropped to near 5 mph this hour.
Rain chances will favor the early to midweek periods, with weak westerlies prevailing around an upper subtropical height ridge centered over Georgia and the Carolinas. For the late week and weekend periods, the subtropical upper level height ridge will amplify over the southern plains to mid-MS River valley.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Broad, mid-level ridging lies overhead, with a weak surface pressure field.
650 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Comparatively cooler, drier weather is anticipated for Monday, though some showers remain possible across northern West Virginia and Maryland in the afternoon.
1045 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Lower tropospheric ridging centered near Bermuda stretches west across the southeastern United States. Water vapor imagery highlights a stretched mid-upper tropospheric trough from north of the northern Bahamas, southwest to the Yucatan Channel.
Some of the high-res guidance suggests higher coverage over Lee county, but will wait to verify with radar trends this afternoon before updating. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be on the low side, but can't rule out an hour with IFR/LIFR conditions if a storm moves directly over a terminal.
General pattern remains largely unchanged across the region today through tomorrow as flat upper ridging persists. Mid and upper level ridge axis holds in a little longer a shunts any potential frontal incursions well to the north.
600 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A quite day is in store for southern Wisconsin with high pressure moving across the region. VFR conditions are expected to persist today as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes Region. The chance for some showers and storms returns Tuesday with the passage of a warm front. The winds will be shifting to southeasterly ahead of the warm front Monday night. Forecast Confidence: High High pressure is building into the region from the northern Great Plains and Canada this morning. The better chance for showers and storms comes during the day Tuesday with the passage of an upper level trough.
High pressure surface and aloft will remain anchored to our north over the next 24h. Persistent high pressure ridge centered NE of FL will continue to produce ESE-SE winds 10-15kt with seas around 3ft. The persistent pattern continues with the Atlantic ridge axis north of the local waters.
Current surface map places weak trof over eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming with cold front dropping into northern Montana. Cold front slips into the forecast area this afternoon. With MLCAPE around 2000J/KG along and ahead of the cold front, scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening. Upper high builds across the central CONUS for the last half of the week, with southwest flow across the Northern Plains.
High pressure remains over the region today. This starts to break down the high pressure over the region, allowing for more and more afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days. We never get any shift in winds though high pressure will be weakening, so we will continue to remain under the humid, hot air mass sitting over the region.
Today's forecast highs are cooler than average, with some lingering precipitation along the Hi-Line and over the mountains of central Montana.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Monday for the lower Grand Canyon. Cooler temperatures beginning Tuesday will last through the weekend. The high resolution models have picked up on these showers and have them continue through the morning. The mid-level trough has eroded the cap enough to generate lightning in the Las Vegas area.
356 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Today's forecast highs are cooler than average, with some lingering precipitation along the Hi-Line and over the mountains of central Montana.
Remainder of the week will be generally dry with warming temperatures through midweek as an upper ridge builds into the northern plains.
Other than right at the surface where dewpoints are in the mid 70s, relatively dry air remains in the lower levels which should help temperatures warm into the mid 90s as dewpoints mix down to around 70. Upper ridging, centered across the eastern United States, will continue to have an influence on our weather. Temperatures will once again rise into the lower to mid 90s across the region. Dewpoints should lower through the day into the lower 70s. However, as was the case yesterday, these will only reach the lower 70s and should bring enough moisture for conditions to feel unpleasant at times.
Clear skies across the lowest 10k ft expected tonight, as high pressure builds across the northern great lakes. Dewpoints will fall with passage during the day as high pressure moves across the region. Highs today will range from the low 80s north to the upper 80s Detroit area as lower dewpoints will allow for good diurnal warming with plenty solar insulation through some CU and high cirrus. Highs will continue seasonable in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints slowly increasing as surface flow veers more southeasterly.
High pressure will bring light and variable winds to the Great Lakes Region today and tonight. By Tuesday, south to southeasterly winds will increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
405 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Counter-clockwise flow around the high, centered over the Four Corners, will continue to pump in drier air to the region. The same can't be said down south but even then, coverage and intensity of any convection will be on the low side and very isolated at that.
/issued 347 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will be centered over the Southeast United States and the Four Corners region today. With the upper level ridge axises to our west and east, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly across the eastern two thirds of the area, where better low level moisture will reside. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
826 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Today's forecast highs are cooler than average, with some lingering precipitation along the Hi-Line and over the mountains of central Montana.
313 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High temperatures will begin to cool slightly today and Tuesday as high pressure weakens.
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A broad low amplitude trough over Canada will lead to relatively zonal upper-level flow over the Northern Plains for the next 36 hours. Warmer more moist mid-level air resides to the south and southwest of Siouxland, with a relatively cool air mass in place.
/Issued 419 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ For today and tonight, the weakness in the broad upper level ridge of high pressure which covers the southern half of the United States will persist through tonight. This weakness in the upper level ridge is expected to result in northwest flow aloft across the OK and TX Panhandles, which is a more favorable steering flow for brining showers and tstms into our region from the higher terrain of southeast CO and eastern NM.
934 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.