Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forecast is on track for the rest of the afternoon as the area remains on the western edge of an upper ridge stretched along most of the eastern U. The unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the overnight hours, as the upper level ridge begins to break down in response to Hurricane Matthew and the eastward progression of the upper trough. A cold front trailing south from this low will weaken as it moves east, and reach extreme NW AL overnight Friday.
Another cold front will begin to move into West Central Texas late tonight. A cold front will approach KABI early Friday morning and through the rest of the area beyond the current forecast. Attention then focuses on an approaching cold front which should move into the Big Country after midnight and then approach the northern Concho Valley around sunrise. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward across the Central Rockies into the Western High Plains enhancing a strong southwest flow aloft across western Kansas. Near the surface, a cold front extends from southeast Nebraska southwestward into west central Kansas. A strong cold front is progged to slide through western Kansas today moving into northern Kansas this morning, bisecting western Kansas this afternoon, then through the area by this evening. Lows tonight are progged to range from around freezing across portions of west central Kansas to lower 40s across south central Kansas.
Upper low over southern Canada continues to provide a cyclonic flow across the forecast area. Clouds continue to wrap around this low which will bring a mostly cloudy day, although some peaks of sun will be possible. Slow-moving upper low now over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with cyclonic flow and below normal heights over MT. Temps have fallen to or below freezing at some locations, but cloud cover is helping to keep temps up. We will see gradually rising heights today as upper low to our northeast continues to fill and drift east. Any shower activity will decrease through the evening as flat ridging builds from the west.
a cold front will sweep through the region and bring more seasonable temperatures for the weekend with high pressure. sunny afternoon with temps in the low to mid 80s. Subtle wave aloft passing through the lower Great Lakes will likely be just enough to maintain current showers through the northern Wabash Valley over the next 2-3 hours. The ridge will hold serve over the region tonight with cu diminishing this evening. Low pressure along the cold front to our west will track from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes by early Friday. This combined with buckling mid level heights as an associated upper trough approaches will finally enable the cold front to swing east through central Indiana Friday afternoon and evening.
Should be another warm day on Friday ahead of cold front. Expect a gradual wind shift to the northeast with pre frontal trough, but front itself should move through Friday night with a brief wind increase.
Colder air will continue to filter in allowing some valleys to drop to freezing or just below. Tonight clearing skies and cold advection may product subfreezing temperatures in some lower elevation zones that have yet to receive a freeze.
While dew points have dropped into the lower 60s in SE KS, near 70 dewpoints persist across Eastern OK. Cold front will quickly overtake dryline and storms will likely become linear with threat evolving into a squall line. Models fairly evenly split whether storms will develop over Flint Hills/Southeast KS well in advance of front, or whether they will just be anchored in the vicinity of cold front.
All eyes will be just to our northwest this evening as a cold front moves into the region. There will be a sharp divide of temperatures initially on Friday across the Ozarks but as the cold front advances, all areas will see the much cooler temperatures. High pressure settles in for Friday night and the weekend with pleasant weather. Later tonight, thunderstorm chances will increase again as a strong cold front approaches the area.
Tended toward a blend of both with a little more weight applied to NAM solution, as it will likely take a bit more time for the low level moisture associated with Matthew to actually work its way across the Appalachian Mountains and into our area.
IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible again Friday morning 10-15Z with conditions improving mid to late morning as light winds back to the north ahead of a cold front approaching the region. Expect the cold front to move across the terminals after 18Z Friday, with northerly winds increasing to near 10 knots behind the front.
Temperatures climbed above freezing across the warning area. Freezing temperatures currently reported across nearly all the region except the southern James river valley this morning. Winds will gradually diminish across the north by late afternoon as the low pressure center continues to slowly push to the northeast. On Friday, a longwave upper level ridge to our west over Montana begins to flatten as it approaches the Northern Plains, transitioning to zonal flow across northern CONUS by the weekend.
Additional storms are expected to form along a cold front in northwest/north central Oklahoma by early evening. Storms will continue to form along a cold front during the evening and overnight with a risk of hail and damaging winds.
1045 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure with dry weather today. Moisture from Matthew from the south and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain into this weekend. High pressure will continue the dry weather across the forecast area through the near term period. With the high located to our NE, flow should generally be easterly, which will help keep afternoon temperatures running well above normal across the western slopes and lowlands. The area will be sandwiched between an upper trough approaching from the west and hurricane Matthew which should be moving north up the eastern seaboard.
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Freezing temperatures currently reported across nearly all the region except the southern James river valley this morning. Winds will gradually diminish across the north by late afternoon as the low pressure center continues to slowly push to the northeast. On Friday, a longwave upper level ridge to our west over Montana begins to flatten as it approaches the Northern Plains, transitioning to zonal flow across northern CONUS by the weekend.
Meanwhile upstream surface obs were revealing a synoptic cold front stretching from northern MN to southwest Neb. Both HRRR/ESRL-HRRR indicate TSRA development along the cold front occuring sometime after sunrise. RAP13 gives PWS values around 2" pooling just ahead of the cold front by this afternoon. A drier/more stable air mass filters in with decent CAA bringing a noticeable cooler conditions on Friday. Time section though advertise temps quickly rebounding this weekend with highs in the low 70s.
740 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Another dry and breezy day across the forecast area as high pressure continues to wedge down the Atlantic Coast. Rain chances increase on Friday with the highest pops east central and lowest chances west.
Have extended the high pops into the afternoon as well as lowered temperatures for the day as cloud cover will inhibit much warming. Upper trough will move over Colorado today. Temperatures are a little warmer than in our previous forecast, so we will hold snow levels at 7000 feet except down to near 6000 feet on the northern border.
614 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Focus for the next 24 hours in this region will be on rainfall chances as mid-upper level wave lifts northeast out of Colorado, followed by influx of cooler temperatures that will settle in for the rest of the week. Then will watch for a second area to develop into our southern areas around Sioux City-Storm Lake by early-mid afternoon, as a warm front lifts north from the central Plains. Much cooler air drops into the region, with sub-zero 850mb temperatures north of I-90 by 12Z Friday, and overnight lows expected to be in the 30s throughout the area.
242 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure with dry weather today. Moisture from Matthew and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain into this weekend.
Main feature will be later in the night though, as the cold front works its way eastward. 500 mb trof axis forecast to shift to our east Friday night taking any lingering threat for showers to our east early in the evening.
Temperatures across northeast Colorado are expected to begin dropping below 36 degrees shortly after midnight with cooler temperatures to spread southeast overnight and into the early morning hours.
345 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide another clear cool night followed by a mostly sunny and mild day tomorrow.
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Above normal temperatures will continue into Friday as high pressure moves off the New England coast while a cold front approaches from the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1045 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The forecast area will remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure aloft located between a tropical system to the Southeast off the Florida coast, and a longwave trough of low pressure dropping South from Central Canada across the Rockies and into Northern Mexico. /issued 447 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ Today through Friday night, A persistent deep layer ridge and associated dry airmass with hot afternoon temperatures is making wildfire danger an increasing concern for the ArkLaMiss (see fire weather discussion).
A cold front will move across the area overnight, with MVFR ceilings in its wake.
A cold front will shift winds at all 3 sites to the NNE overnight, with a few hours of gustiness behind the front before winds decrease early Friday morning. As the day progresses, a cold front will move through Colorado and Kansas and push into the Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. The biggest questions will be if the moisture will stay in the Texas Panhandle or get pushed eastward into Oklahoma, and the timing of the cold front. Along with the cold front brings another night of temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Expect cool conditions with light northeast winds today and Friday as low pressure remains over much of the western United States.
232 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 The surface pressure ridge extending into the forecast area from the north will weaken through tonight while the inverted trough will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
All eyes will be just to our northwest this evening as a cold front moves into the region. There will be a sharp divide of temperatures initially on Friday across the Ozarks but as the cold front advances, all areas will see the much cooler temperatures. High pressure settles in for Friday night and the weekend with pleasant weather. A cold front will then sweep through the area late tonight.
916 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The forecast area remains on the western edge of an upper ridge stretched along most of the eastern U. The unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the overnight hours, as the upper level ridge begins to break down in response to Hurricane Matthew and the eastward progression of the upper trough. A cold front trailing south from this low will weaken as it moves east, and reach extreme NW AL overnight Friday.
737 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure will maintain fair weather across our region through Friday night.
A cold front will move into the area late in the TAF period reaching HOB near 08Z with a northeast wind shift. An upper trough, currently digging toward the Four Corners region this morning, may provide some weak upper forcing at best later today but for now it looks like convergence along the fairly weak dryline will give us our best shot. Otherwise, temperatures will be hot once again today A decent cold front is expected Friday, bringing cooler temperatures brief gusty north winds to the forecast area. Despite the cold front, LL moisture looks to remain in place across the region.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the western US with the base of the trough west of Texas. A cold front will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA tomorrow.
May need to update for cooler high temperatures for this afternoon, but will wait and see if any breaks develop in the clouds and make any updates around noon. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today and 5-10 degrees warmer (near normal) on Friday.
342 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will linger over New England into the evening then drift offshore. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night. High pressure will return to the region over the weekend. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night.
116 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Forecast focus in the short term is the high likelihood of frost across the entire forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. A cooler and dryer airmass moves in, northwest winds turn southwest and become light, and skies become mostly clear. As this happens, temperatures will cool below 36 degrees beginning over northeast Colorado with cooler temperatures expected to spread southeastward across far southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Far eastern Colorado could see temperatures drop slightly below 30 degrees while the remainder of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will see overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s.
122 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 An upstream H5 trough over UT/CO had induced a surface reflection over southwestern KS and the OK panhandle at 08z. The upper trough will lift northeastward today through NEB and into IA. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as it approaches the area today and tonight, but the location of the forcing suggests that the highest precip chances will be spatially confined to central and northeastern MO and temporally confined within the next 24 hrs. 42 Models now depict a faster timing for Friday's cold front, therefore highs on Friday are not expected to be as warm as previously forecast. Of additional concern will be LLWS for this evening and early overnight for a UIN-COU axis ahead of the cold front and lowering CIGs behind the front.
Ridging aloft and at the surface gets pinched off as a trough approaches from the west and Hurricane Matthew rides northward along the U.
1040 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide cool, clear nights and warm days through Friday.
1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Focus for the next 24 hours in this region will be on rainfall chances as mid-upper level wave lifts northeast out of Colorado, followed by influx of cooler temperatures that will settle in for the rest of the week. Then will watch for a second area to develop into our southern areas around Sioux City-Storm Lake by early-mid afternoon, as a warm front lifts north from the central Plains. Much cooler air drops into the region, with sub-zero 850mb temperatures north of I-90 by 12Z Friday, and overnight lows expected to be in the 30s throughout the area.
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide cool, clear nights and warm days through Friday.
215 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide cool, clear nights and warm days through Friday.
Satellite loops show a long wave trough continues over the western CONUS this morning with a cool northwest flow aloft over central California. An upper ridge over the EPAC will begin to shift inland today for the start of a warming trend. The ridge will be over the west this weekend with temps climbing to several degrees above normal.
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 The surface pressure ridge extending into the forecast area from the north will weaken through tonight while the inverted trough will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The short term period begins with a long-wave trough over the Canada and CONUS with the storm system, that brought much wind and precipitation to Northeast Montana, lifting farther north into Canada. This trough has tapped into cold Arctic air and has dragged the air mass down behind the low pressure storm system. A cool Pacific Ridge has set up over the pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia in response. Tonight into Friday temperatures are expected to again reach freezing overnight as high pressure settles in at the surface and an inversion and cold air drainage become a factor leading to highly stratified temperatures based on terrain.
255 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 The surface pressure ridge extending into the forecast area from the north will weaken through tonight while the inverted trough will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 A cold front will bring a northerly near surface flow of 5-10 kts across most section between 12 and 15z. A cold front remained parked to the northwest, with showers and thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the front.
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance The big short term event, is the cold front and its passage Friday pm. The main effects instead, look to be the tightening post fropa gradient, between the landfalling Hurricane Matthew, and high pressure incoming over our area.
259 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 As expected, a warm front has lifted northward from KS today, now located across southeast NE through central IA. Latest HRRR model runs suggest that as the upper impulse moves in from the high plains, storms will begin to intensify and move in from the west by 4-5 pm then quickly race eastward through the early evening. Indeed, western NE is seeing snow, and while we won't see that here, we will see the cooler temperatures. Lows tonight dip into the lower to mid 30s for portions of eastern NE.
340 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Above normal temperatures will continue into Friday as high pressure moves off the New England coast while a cold front approaches from the west.
1030 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are forecast to continue today through Friday as high pressure remains centered over New England. A cold front with limited moisture will provide a slight chance of showers Friday night.
A cold front will approach KABI early Friday morning and through the rest of the area beyond the current forecast. Attention then focuses on an approaching cold front which should move into the Big Country after midnight and then approach the northern Concho Valley around sunrise. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front.
1035 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Issued by National Weather Service Salt Lake City at 1035 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The upper level trough currently over eastern Colorado/eastern wyoming will continue east into the northern plains states today. Cold air instability behind the exiting trough will maintain isolated and mainly terrain-tied showers through the balance of the morning and into early afternoon. Precipitation intensity look to be on the light side as the available moisture is confined mainly to the lower levels, the dynamic support for lift will be weak.
150 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are forecast to continue today through Friday as high pressure remains centered over New England. A cold front with limited moisture will provide a slight chance of showers Friday night.
North winds will arrive by the mid- morning hours as a cold front arrives. Another mostly cloudy to cloudy evening is in store as a cold front pushes from central Texas into our area late tonight. The cold front is expected to arrive late Friday morning across the Edwards Plateau area.
1017 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will remain centered over southern New England into Friday.
618 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Latest subjective surface analysis shows fairly tight gradient across eastern Nebraska between a broad area of low pressure across the western Plains and high pressure across the Great Lakes. a low pressure trough extends from north central South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon.
/Issued 233 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016/ A weak pressure trough continues across northern GA. a weakness in the upper ridge will persist through tonight. On Tuesday, the high center currently across the central gulf coast will begin to retrograde into eastern Texas.
05 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
An upper low was near Vancouver Island this evening and will drift south and move through western Washington on Tuesday, brushing parts of northwest Oregon. On Tuesday look for more clouds, cooler temps, a few showers especially near the Columbia River and northward, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in southwest Washington.
With the mostly clear skies in place, temps may drop quicker than thought but lows will still be in the lower 70s. Even though we didn't have widespread rainfall, the "cooler" temps warrant keeping the mention of patchy fog in valley locations for the morning. LN A ridge axis continues to occupy the Southeast U.
/ISSUED / 348 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level high pressure ridge centered over SE Texas will drift westward over the next several days. The ridge will keep hot and mainly dry conditions across the area through the end of the work week. However, as the center of the high works its way slightly west of the area, a deep layer easterly flow may help the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the latter part of the week.
High pressure will build in from the north during the middle of the week, then move offshore late in the week.
Convection that was forming along a southward progressing outflow boundary has diminished as it encountered stronger ridging aloft. A warmer period ahead, perhaps extending beyond a week. Medium range models show weak northwest flow aloft weakening further with the encroachment of a broad height ridge centered over the southern plains. NAM model progs 925mb temps 2 deg C warmer than today along and west of the MS. Despite slightly cooler afternoon dewpoints, heat indices will likely reach 105 to 107 from the MS River delta, up through far west TN. 12Z model- blended pops for the late week and weekend periods appear a little overdone given that the ECMWF and GFS edge a lobe of the upper ridge eastward into the western Ohio River valley.
/Issued 339 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Current water vapor and H5 heights show a rather vigorous trough moving across center Canada with attendant cold front extending southward into the Northern Plains and inter-mountain west. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern resulting in hot and humid conditions across much of the region.
Tuesday will see return southeast surface flow as low- amplitude ridging occurs aloft.
High pressure will keep temperatures near normal through mid week.
Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the northern plains 12z Thu which moves into the upper Great Lakes late Thu. In the extended, GFS and ECWMF show a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a trough in the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri which remains through Sat. Some shra/TS wl arrive on Tue ahead of an apchg lo pres trof.
The upper high pressure ridge is building into the region and will hold down afternoon and evening convection chances over AR the next several days.
617 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Relatively stagnant pattern with forecast area on edge of active periphery of upper ridge.