Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
144 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Canadian high pressure will build across the region today. Rain chances increase late in the week as an upper level trough moves into the eastern US. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest overnight. Local radiation scheme gives mid 40s for lows at CAE/AGS which is too cool since we will not have ideal conditions but think the cooler NBM/MET guidance is better so will go close to that for lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. It will be warmer Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. With ridging in place and PWAT values from 0. Skies will be mainly clear on Monday with some cloud cover on Tuesday as moisture advects over the upper ridge.
Model guidance maintains a warming trend beginning on Tuesday as a ridge noses into the Northern Rockies.
100 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Mostly clear skies and gusty south winds have pushed temperatures into the 70s and even the low 80s across the area. Monday will be the warmest day of the week as we see very deep mixing and gusty southwest winds ahead of the upper trough deepening over the western CONUS. By Tuesday morning, most models show cold front just pushing into northwestern portions of the forecast area.
526 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build over PA this afternoon and tonight before sliding off the East Coast Tuesday. A warm front will lift north across the State Tuesday followed by much warmer temperatures in the 70s.
Height and thickness rises will result in warmer temperatures. This southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to the region and have high temperatures in the 80s.
522 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build over PA this afternoon and tonight before sliding off the East Coast Tuesday. A warm front will lift north across the State Tuesday followed by much warmer temperatures in the 70s.
735 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
846 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A broad upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico northwards into the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is located to the north and east of the forecast area with southerly flow at the surface expected to return today. The aforementioned upper ridge axis will become centered over the area by Tuesday, and large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place through the remainder of the short term forecast. Further west, our potential next weather maker will be a trough digging into the western Plains resulting in active weather in these areas.
745 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Aviation - Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night - Warm Tuesday, occasional chances for showers or storms - Cooler late in the week, unsettled weekend -- Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night -- First, reflectivity seen on radar this morning is almost entirely virga from altostratus above 6,000 feet. 850-700 moisture and warm air transport will occur earlier in the evening amid a southwesterly jet, with most models keeping a layer of saturated warm air lingering in that layer past midnight even as the core of the low level jet becomes more westerly and focused south of Michigan.
342 AM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail today ahead of an upper level low moving across the Sierra Nevadas. Heights begin to fall today as the low approaches. Even though cooler air aloft is moving in, the downslope floe will result in another warm day across the area. Tuesday and Tuesday night, a return to cooler and wetter weather is expected. The models are fairly consistent showing the upper low over northern NV by 12z Tuesday, with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. The cold front associated with this system will push across the northeast plains by mid morning with a deepening upslope developing Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The upper low splits with the southern branch dropping south into southern AZ by 12z Wed.
Drier weather and warmer interior temperatures will return by Tuesday and last through much of the week as high pressure builds over the region. The core of the upper level trough continues to move south and east this morning while high pressure builds in from the north. however surface temperatures should see their lowest tonight over interior areas as drier air allows morning lows to fall to the lower 30s across many interior valley locations.
417 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 It is currently cool temperatures outside right this moment, but temperatures will begin climbing and continue to do so for the next few days as a ridge currently located in the center part of the CONUS builds into the southeast.
Highs should range from the lower to mid 80s across SE TX. Lows tonight will be warmer, ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the upper 60s/around 70 toward the coastline. Highs tomorrow could be a degree or two cooler given the increased clouds.
The combination of rising heights aloft associated with a building upper ridge and strong low level WAA will result in much warmer temperatures today with highs as much as 15 degree degrees above normal - maxes in the upper 70s to mid 80s. I still think temperatures will be a bit warmer on Tuesday in spite of increasing high clouds in the afternoon, with highs in the lower to middle 80s prevalent. There is a touch more southwesterly component to the low level flow and warm advection remains strong.
642 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will move off to the east and the pressure gradient will increase as low pressure moves into the Plains this afternoon. Today Through Tuesday Night A large upper ridge is over the center part of the country this morning and will continue to move east. This upper ridge will be centered over the east coast Tuesday with southwest flow returning to Arkansas. An upper low over the west Tuesday will move into the desert southwest Tuesday night. High clouds will increase as they come over the upper ridge but abundant sunshine is still expected. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and Tuesday night lows will be warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level ridge remains in place over the Great Plains and Midwestern U. The upper level ridge begins to give way to a deep upper level trough with an axis over the Mountain West by Tuesday. On Monday night and Tuesday morning, a surface cold front will move through western and north central Nebraska, creating a range of high temperatures on Tuesday from the low 50s in the northern Panhandle to the upper 60s in southwest Nebraska. This setup will bring the next chances for precipitation to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the cold front. Storms may develop in an area of deepening low pressure in southern Nebraska and along a stalled cold front to the south of the area.
06Z surface data has a strong low pressure in western Nebraska with high pressure over the Great Lakes. An implied warm front ran east from the low across Nebraska and then southeast into Missouri. South of the warm front dew points were in the 40s and 50s. High pressure over the Great Lakes with a strong storm system in the Plains will result in very windy and warm temperatures across the area today.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ A transient ridge will shift over and across the Midsouth today and tomorrow. Dew points will surge into the low 60s tomorrow and mid 60s by midweek. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
721 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build over PA this afternoon and tonight before sliding off the East Coast Tuesday. A warm front will lift north across the State Tuesday followed by much warmer temperatures in the 70s.
Dry and much warmer weather returns beginning Tuesday. Radar indicates a few lingering showers across the northern Sierra early this morning as the closed low centered over northeast California begins to slowly fill. Trough lingers over NorCal today as another vort slides down from the north, and with daytime surface heating, will help to trigger a resurgence in deep convection this afternoon into this evening across the mountains. Minor snow accumulations will be possible across the higher peaks of the northern Sierra this afternoon into early this evening, but likely won't present much impact to travel over the passes. Highs today will remain cool across the mountains, but are expected to be around 5-10 degrees warmer across the Central Valley. Upper level ridging returns to Northern California Tuesday bringing dry and warmer weather for the remainder of the week.
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging will maintain a very dry (precipitable water generally at or below half an inch) and warm airmass across the ArkLaMiss region through the near term with temperatures forecast to be slightly above normal.
The overall synoptic pattern over the western and central CONUS is amplifying as a long wave trough digs into the West. In the lower levels, WAA currently spreading over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will continue through the morning while gradually propagating eastward.
This shift comes as high pressure settles off shore and pushes in warmer and slightly more humid air to the region. High temperatures today will be in the low 80s with slightly cooler temperatures at higher elevations. Models show a secondary low developing over the desert southwest by midweek although they quickly diverge with ECMWF deepening a low over the southern plains while GFS shows an elongated trough aloft by the work week's end.
Temperatures rising into the low 80s. /issued 338 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ A transient ridge will shift over and across the Midsouth today and tomorrow. Dew points will surge into the low 60s tomorrow and mid 60s by midweek. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
Moisture will begin to increase late over the far western sections of the forecast areas later tonight as a significant Pacific trough moves towards the region.
630 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Quiet and warm for most of the week as a strong upper level ridge and high pressure system dominate the pattern.
As far as the cold front and low pressure system to our west, not much change there either. Showers and storms will form along the cold front as it pushes through eastern Utah early Tuesday morning and by daybreak reaches the UT/CO border. Some snowfall is possible for the higher elevations as the front pushes through at elevations above 10K feet with 2 to 4 inches possible. maybe a bit more for the highest elevations.
Vis imagery this morning showing high level cirrus spilling into the region overtop mid/upper level ridge over the Plains. Maximums should climb into the low to mid 80s unabated. Otherwise, deep layer ridging will maintain a very dry (precipitable water generally at or below half an inch) and warm airmass across the ArkLaMiss region through the near term with temperatures forecast to be slightly above normal.
Today through tonight, the extended lobe of low pressure over Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, which is connected to the main low pressure trough from central Canada will slowly move eastward through the Rocky Mountains, but as it does so, it will weaken and dissipate.
1017 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
At the same time, a strong mid level ridge will build upstream over the GOMEX. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s across the coastal counties, and mid 80s inland with some upper 80s over the far western interior (mainly across Lake county).
630 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Breezy to windy, today as a strong lee trough continues.
/issued 244 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain in the north to northwest edge of 500 mb high pressure that will linger over the Bay of Campeche. A persistent breezy onshore flow, produced by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over Mexico, will generate slightly above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.
/issued 319 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ A quiet and warm week shaping up for the region with W/NW flow aloft in place over the region this morning as ridging builds over the central CONUS before gradually shifting eastward through the week. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our north and will gradually slide into the western Atlantic by Tue-Wed. Ridging aloft gradually breaks down late in the week as a trough digs from Canada into the eastern CONUS, dragging a cold front into the Southeast bringing the potential for some unsettled weather and increased rain chances.
/issued 417 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ It is currently cool temperatures outside right this moment, but temperatures will begin climbing and continue to do so for the next few days as a ridge currently located in the center part of the CONUS builds into the southeast.
255 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Clouds will clear out of the region tonight as a large ridge of high pressure begins to work its way into the region. This will bring significantly warmer temperatures to the region for the remainder of the week.
311 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A building upper ridge will provide mostly clear skies and our warmest temperatures of the year over the next couple of days.
Given this projected evolution, have maintained a period of chance PoPs (30%) for the Middle and Upper Keys this evening, with slight chances in the Lower Keys as well as for the overnight hours across the island chain. High pressure will push into the Western Atlantic over the next several days. The deterministic GFS (along with the UKMET) has tended towards a solution for a relatively amplified positively- tilted trough progressing across the Southeast and either pushing through the island chain or stalling in the vicinity. In contrast, recent runs of the deterministic EURO (and the global Canadian) suggest a cutoff mid- upper level low forming over Texas and then gradually pivoting into the southeast.
While dry air is noted aloft, winds have become easterly to southeasterly bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic at the low levels to offset the afternoon mixing. This shift comes as high pressure settles off shore and pushes in warmer and slightly more humid air to the region. High temperatures today will be in the low 80s with slightly cooler temperatures at higher elevations. Models show a secondary low developing over the desert southwest by midweek although they quickly diverge with ECMWF deepening a low over the southern plains while GFS shows an elongated trough aloft by the work week's end.
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
304 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure overhead will slide off the East Coast on Tuesday.
Skies clear overnight, with dry, warmer, and breezy weather following through the remainder of the week.
109 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
It will warm into the low 80s with overnight lows in the the mid to upper 50s. A trough is currently digging in over California and the Desert Southwest.
An upper level low, now cut off from the main flow, will begin to wobble SE across northern Nevada today. This will keep enough instability for a stray shower or two, mainly along the higher terrain. Model consensus doesn't bring the ridge axis over the region until Tuesday afternoon, so am expecting clouds to hang around and limit radiational cooling. Chances of overnight lows in the Rogue, Illinois, and Applegate valley reaching 32 degrees or lower is around 10%, except in sinks where MinTs are known to run 3-7 degrees cooler than neighboring observation points. The weather should remain calm, with a ridge over the region through the end of the week.
Northwest flow is in place aloft as large amplitude ridge continues to slide over the eastern CONUS. Tomorrow will be even warmer, with highs in the 80s across most of the CWA giving temperature departures from average of +5-10 degrees F. Lusk Extended models continue to show good agreement initially, then begin to diverge with large upper level trough as it moves through the region late in the week.
/GG/ Vis imagery this morning showing high level cirrus spilling into the region overtop mid/upper level ridge over the Plains. Maximums should climb into the low to mid 80s unabated. Otherwise, deep layer ridging will maintain a very dry (precipitable water generally at or below half an inch) and warm airmass across the ArkLaMiss region through the near term with temperatures forecast to be slightly above normal.
Most locations will top out in the lower half of the 80s Tuesday afternoon with southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.
Thin cirrus continues to spill over the deep-layer ridge now building and centered near the Mississippi River Valley. Warming trend to continue through Tuesday, with dry conditions as high pressure remains. Overnight we will remain fairly clear and moisture levels will creep up as southerly flow begins to work into the area on the backside of the high pressure.
A broad upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico northwards into the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is located to the north and east of the forecast area with southerly flow at the surface expected to return today. The aforementioned upper ridge axis will become centered over the area by Tuesday, and large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place through the remainder of the short term forecast. Further west, our potential next weather maker will be a trough digging into the western Plains resulting in active weather in these areas.
(This evening through Tuesday) A large upper level trough/low is located across the Intermountain West and will slowly dive south toward the Desert Southwest over the next 24 hours. West Central Texas will be in southwest flow aloft, as the aforementioned upper level trough remains to our west. The cloud cover and possible shower and thunderstorm activity should help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than forecast highs today.
This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a deepening trough over the western CONUS, leading to southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a weak inverted trough was located across eastern Montana / western North Dakota, with broad high pressure placed over the Great Lakes region. Rain chances will taper off in the far southwest on Tuesday morning as flow aloft turns more zonal/northwesterly with a closed low placed in northern Manitoba. Warmer temperatures are expected in the north where cloud cover will exit much faster compared to in the south.
Southeasterly winds increase and become gusty again heading into Tuesday morning which will mix out the low ceilings and allow VFR conditions to prevail through the evening. Highs should range from the lower to mid 80s across SE TX. Lows tonight will be warmer, ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the upper 60s/around 70 toward the coastline. Highs tomorrow could be a degree or two cooler given the increased clouds.
For northeastern ND and far NW MN, there are considerable breaks in the lower level cloud cover but high clouds will be present into tonight. Mild and tranquil day Wed will be followed by an advancing cold front slated to enter Devils Lake Basin region sometime around sunset.
407 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Breezy to windy, today as a strong lee trough continues.
1115 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Under partly to mostly sunny skies and light north to northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. High pressure over the Southeast United States will build southward, resulting in moisture confined below 850 mb.
231 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Dry high pressure will move to just off the southeast coast giving our region a warm southerly flow through mid week.
Tomorrow morning should start out in the low 60s and the highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s.
147 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Aviation - Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night - Warm Tuesday, occasional chances for showers or storms - Cooler late in the week, unsettled weekend -- Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night -- First, reflectivity seen on radar this morning is almost entirely virga from altostratus above 6,000 feet. 850-700 moisture and warm air transport will occur earlier in the evening amid a southwesterly jet, with most models keeping a layer of saturated warm air lingering in that layer past midnight even as the core of the low level jet becomes more westerly and focused south of Michigan.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail across southwest Kansas ahead of the next upper level trough through tomorrow afternoon, leading to continued strong south-southwest surface winds and warm temperatures.
317 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 As of 20Z Monday afternoon, a longwave midlevel trough was advancing eastward across the southwest US. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected with lows reaching the low to mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today due to an increase in midlevel cloudiness.
The frontal boundary has faded with a northeasterly to easterly flow beginning as high pressure attempts to build back in over the area. Otherwise Tuesday should be a fairly dry day across South Florida with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s along the Atlantic to the upper 80s along the Gulf coast.
Another day of slightly above normal temperatures with highs topping out in the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. Moderate southeasterly flow will persist throughout the day as high pressure continues to sit in place off to our east. Moderate southeasterly flow will continue to provide steady WAA, so while Tuesday will remain a mostly cloudy day, high temperatures will still reach the low-to-mid 80s. Anticipating an even warmer night for Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will be 8-10 degrees above normal with lows in the low 70s.
233 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Tonight and Tuesday: Mostly thin cirrus continues to stream overhead overtop the mid level ridge over the MS valley. At the surface, high pressure center looks to have shifted east into AL with southerly winds now over the western periphery. Tuesday will be another warm day with southerly winds and mid level ridge passing overhead, but increased cloud cover in the west may play a role in preventing maximums from reaching their full potential.
The trough that has been bringing rainfall to the area will continue to push east overnight. Temperatures will likely remain warm enough that the lower elevations will continue to see rainfall through the night, but cannot rule out entirely that there could be a mix of rain and snow in the southeast. Reimer Models continue to be in agreement for ridging to build for the second half of the week with changes arriving during the weekend.
348 PM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will prevail most of this week. A cold front could bring impacts to the region late in the week. Provided that these clouds aren't more extensive and/or thicker than we anticipate, we again went cooler than the guidance consensus in many interior sections.
Cold front pushing into the northern Panhandle this afternoon. upper level low slowly moving into northern nevada at this time.
240 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Upper low across the western CONUS will slowly drift east into the southern Plains over the next couple of days. There could be snow showers across the higher Black Hills late tonight into Tue morning, but any accumulations will be light.