Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TONIGHT AND MONDAY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICKER/THICKENING CLOUD COVER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HOWEVER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY/S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
234 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 Despite increasing high clouds this afternoon, enough mixing has occurred to allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70s with winds gusting as high as 45 mph in some locations.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EWD AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE W COAST.
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016/ AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. MESOSCALE MODELS SLIDE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER OHIO EAST TODAY INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS IN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. THIS WILL NOT IMPACT SENSIBLE HEATING DUE TO THE VERY SCATTERED AND THIN NATURE OF THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WITH WEAKER GRADIENT WINDS AND POOLING OF SNOWMELT MOISTURE AND INCOMING MILDER GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COOLER/MELTING SNOWPACK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. MESOSCALE MODELS SLIDE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER OHIO EAST TODAY INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS IN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. THIS WILL NOT IMPACT SENSIBLE HEATING DUE TO THE VERY SCATTERED AND THIN NATURE OF THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER.
Meanwhile, our strongest winds have been reported on the ridges - Mission Ridge, Alder Ridge, Alpowa Summit and near Schweitzer.
THE BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODELS DID HAVE LOWER TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S FOR HIGHS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. DISCOUNTED IT AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHS WE HAVE GOING. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE SOME DEEPER SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WITH THIS COLD FRONT MOVING IN WILL BE TOUGH TO RISE TOO MUCH THERE.
1237 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS THE FRONT CROSSES UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE WASATCH FRONT BETWEEN 21-22Z AND THEN CROSS THE STATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN UTAH BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATER TONIGHT. WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21-22Z AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 346 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. NLISTEMAA THE OVERALL PATTERN SCENARIO CONTINUES AS A DEVELOPING DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO THEN INTO DEEP SE TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE ERN U.
320 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
18Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
257 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK. REGION CURRENTLY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. HOWEVER WAVES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA AT TIMES. SUSTAINED POSITIVE TEMP/DEW POINT ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
347 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 IN INDIANA.
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL HAVE SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ASHORE.
WARMER WEATHER ON THE WAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL HIGH FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING THE BULK OF ITS FORCING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY NORTHEAST. WHICH WHILE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 818 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016/ DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AFTER A COOL START EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
136 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 Upper ridge over the area will give way to an upper trough moving in from the west. Had an initial weak trough move ashore CA coast today before tracking east and flattening the ridge. A stronger upper trough will move ashore Monday. As This trough digs southward it develops into a cut off low rolling along US/Mex border.
355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
129 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM AN EARLY MORNING POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AND REMAINED ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN MODELS INDICATE.
457 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
PRECIP NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE EACH PERIOD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S RIVER AND COAST WITH HIGHS ON MON RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.
While some breaks in the cloud cover is occurring this afternoon, low clouds will quickly redevelop and lower across the area this evening and overnight as the low level jet intensifies. Temperatures will be quite warm tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 60s. The main upper level low will push into northern Mexico by Monday Night, as the main area of lift edges into West Texas.
AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN A LITTLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEY SHOULD BE COOLER MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH.
As of 18Z, an upper level ridge axis extends from the Gulf of Mexico northward through the Mississippi Valley and into central Canada. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure sits across far western Kansas early this afternoon. Winds are generally be from the south southwest ahead of this trough shifting to more of a westerly direction along and behind this feature. This in combination of the low dewpoints will cause extreme fire danger and burning of any kind is not recommended. Highs will vary from the mid 70s on the higher terrain near the Colorado border to near 80 degrees along and just behind the dry line.
BEFORE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A much warmer and wetter pattern will develop over the next few days as a large scale ridge currently over the central U.
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will continue to dominate the weather here along the Gulf Coast with clear skies expected to continue tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s inland with lower 50s at the coast.
NONE THE LESS, ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SIERRA FOR 1-2 FEET OF ACCUMULATION WHILE IN KERN COUNTY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT WHILE THE HIGHLY TRAVELED AND IMPACTED GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASSES CAN EXPECT UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ROAD CLOSING SNOW. MODELS ESSENTIALLY MOVE THE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER COLD AIR, LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS IN KERN COUNTY WILL ALLOW THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER NICE AND SPRINGLIKE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE WIND IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A 500MB LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE BASE OF A 500MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.
RAISED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS THE MID STATE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARILY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
205 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WITH RAIN BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVERHEAD. AND HAVE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
253 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY. BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BREEZY TO WIND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE REGION OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE INTO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
1209 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
Upper level troughing is expected to progress into the western United States through Monday.
A VERY NICE DAY TODAY AND EVEN TOMORROW WITH THE WARMER TEMPS EACH MORNING WITH OUR AFTERNOON/S TO TRIM BACK A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE CLOUDS REALLY THICKEN UP.
High pressure centered over the Midwest this morning will build into the CWA today as the center slides into the Carolinas by this evening. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will build into the southeast today. This will result in mainly sunny skies with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s, which is a degree or two above normal.
A cold front continues to push through the Northern Rockies this afternoon. A transitory weak ridge will move through the region tonight causing more stable conditions.
334 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
350 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS RIDGE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION /WITH SNOW ON THE PEAKS/ IN SW IDAHO WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH KBOI AND SHOULD REACH KMUO BY 17 AND KTWF/KJER BY 18Z. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL OREGON AT 09Z MOVING STEADILY EAST. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MONDAY. ON MONDAY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR MASS TO MODIFY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
1248 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
THE 50S RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THEY ARE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SIDED TOWARDS THE DRIER/WARMER END OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND EVEN SURPASSED IT IN MANY CASES.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO, ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
316 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
1242 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
321 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY. BRINGING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
348 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ARIZONA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
Big picture shows a large ridge shifting east across the Nation with an embedded impulse moving through the ridge axis early this morning.
THIS SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH SUNSET AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING EXPAND EAST BEHIND A MINOR UA TROUGH. AIDING IN THIS PROCESS WILL BE A MORE DEFINED S/W TROUGH LIFTING FROM NRN NM INTO CO BY MIDDAY AND SERVING TO KEEP WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN MORE SWLY.
122 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 ENDING THE WEEKEND ON A VERY SUNNY NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
As of early this morning, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed a trough axis along the NC/SC coast with large ridging over the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure was centered over central Illinois. Locally, temperatures were in the low to mid 30s and some patchy fog has formed where skies cleared and winds decoupled, though visibilities have stayed up in the 3-5 mile range so far. Plan on highs to top out in the low 50s across the northern Bluegrass to near 60 around the Bowling Green area. This will bring warmer temperatures while rain producing systems will stay well to the west.
A LEAD DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500 J/KG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
333 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 VERY NICE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND THE VERY WET AND STORMY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WHICH LOOKS OMINOUS DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD WE HAVE RECENTLY HAD.
TEMP TRENDS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW WASHED OUT OVER THE NRN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION. AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER NRN MEX. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT PERHAPS TWO/THREE SFC WAVES DEVELOPING INVOF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NWD LATE WED INTO THU. ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO OPEN MORE AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GEN AREA.
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR FULL MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER.
353 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY IN NATURE AS STACKED CLOSED SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL CA COASTLINE AND WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO NRN MEXICO BY WED MORNING. AND STRONG RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT SHIFT EWD OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. USHERING IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS TO THE MID STATE. AFTER EVEN A MORE WARM NIGHT ON MON NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE ENTIRE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMPLEX SFC/ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MORNING.
1256 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY FROST APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND ALSO IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST. BUT IF TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD FROST COULD BECOME A CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE AFTER WED WITH THE GFS FINALLY ROTATING THE CLOSED LOW OVER NE TX FRI AND THE ECMWF CUTTING IT OFF SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND REGION BEFORE FINALLY OPENING SAT.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO, ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MIX OF SCT-TO-BKN MID-LEVEL (GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FT) CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE BKN-TO-OVC WITH LOWERING CEILINGS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD AS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WA/OR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED (15-30 KTS) WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 21Z THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
Abundant cloud cover will result in milder temperatures today with highs mainly in the lower 70s. Morning lows tomorrow will be warmer with temperatures around 60 degrees. The medium range models are indicating a strong upper level trough to dig into the Southern Rockies and northern Mexico early this week.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY WARMER FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING SNOW.
AND FEEL THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY-LINE BEING LIMITED. ALSO WOULD THINK SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT OR REMAIN MORE SHALLOW DUE TOO THE VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.
A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT FEELING QUITE SPRINGLIKE WITH DEW POINTS GETTING UP INTO THE 50S. AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY EVEN WHEN DISCOUNTING TODAYS NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING BUFFALO RIDGE WIND SURGE.
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE WARMER THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A longwave trough centered across the middle portion of North America will slowly shift east through the period as a ridge begins to build across western North America. Once this wave passes later on today and tonight, we will see a reinforcement of high pressure and cooler air tonight. We expect another night of sub-freezing temperatures, perhaps over a larger area.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. BUT FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL DROP NEAR FREEZING. WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER. INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.