Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
128 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Aviation A pleasant Sunday is expected with a good deal of sunshine, low humidity, light winds and seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s. The fair weather is provided courtesy of an area of high pressure that will be parked over the area today. Monday and Monday night will feature dry weather, even as the high drifts to the eastern seaboard.
1141 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Outflow from last night's convection has led to cooler and more moist conditions this morning along with areas of low clouds. Current surface map places weak cold front/outflow boundary across northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota. Water vapor shows upper ridge located over the dakotas. as strong upper trof moves into the northwestern U. Jet streak rotates through base of upper trof and lifts through western Wyoming into Montana. Upper low track across Montana into northwest North Dakota on Monday with dry and windy conditions expected across the forecast area.
This convergence combined with weak upper level pivoting northward around an upper level low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will bring the best chances of late afternoon and early evening thunderstorm potential generally along and near the I-95 corridor of NE Florida. Drier air mixed down this afternoon with dew pts in the lower 70s and combined with temps a few deg below recent daytime values. Low temps will fall into the low/mid 70s. Monday steering flow will shift more to the south at the mid level 500 mb ridge axis extends northward across Ga/N Florida. Mean upper ridge remains over the area. but with some weak disturbances moving thru ridge to enhance t-storm chances later this week into the weekend.
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure lingers into Monday. Warmer and more humid as we head through the work week. High pressure extending from the Great Lakes region, south into WV and southeast OH will provide dry but warm conditions through Monday.
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2016 Periods of rain showers with isolated thunderstorms continue today as the upper level low slowly progresses across the area.
Winds will decrease and become mainly northerly tonight as a strong low pressure system moves east out of the Pacific Northwest. High pressure will gradually build over New Mexico and Arizona for the rest of the week leading to dry conditions with temperatures warming to above normal levels for the latter half of the week. It still looks like a cold front of sorts will move down through the area shifting winds to a northerly direction overnight and Monday morning. Temperatures will warm up for the rest of the week as high pressure builds over southern New Mexico and Arizona.
A gradual warming trend is forecast through midweek as an upper ridge currently centered over the southern Great Plains expands to the west and north.
Looking at the wx maps, an upper trough over the northeast states had caused northwesterly flow to develop across the Ohio Valley, bringing today's slightly drier and cooler air down into Mid Tn. As the northeast trough lifts out and heights rise, deeper moisture lurking just south of Tn will return northward late tonight through Monday. Also, a weak upper trough that has been sitting over north Ms will slowly lift north northeastward.
while a gradually weakening surface trof over interior Alabama and Mississippi remains nearly stationary through Monday. Lows tonight in the lower 70s inland and the mid/upper 70s coastal.
Radar trends show much of the current precipitation mainly staying north of the forecast area but clipping the northwest counties; some of the high res guidance seems to be initializing this feature a little too far south. Additionally, cooler surface temperatures should result in lower SBCAPE values. Temperatures across the north are running 7-9 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, while they are only slightly cooler across the south. /Issued 426 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Upper level low drifting across the Tennessee Valley through the next couple of days will continue to provide just enough lift to set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Alabama.
An upper low over the northern Rockies is driving a southwest flow aloft over northeast Montana. A surface cold front has brought more stable conditions to most of the region, however, Wibaux county was able to warm enough this afternoon for strong, and possibly severe thunderstorm development. Expect severe storms to exit the area by 6 pm, and widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to rule tonight as the upper low moves overhead. Monday the low will deepen further, continuing the threat for rainfall, and with a trowel feature setting up. Winds will also pick up as the low deepens, and a lake wind advisory may be needed for Fort Peck Lake. Monday evening and overnight the wraparound precipitation continues over the area, as the low pushes into North Dakota.
Southwest winds will remain strong overnight and into Monday due to surface and low level confluence ahead of the lee side trough.
Low pressure system moving from Oregon into the Idaho Central Mountains this afternoon, and may already be crossing into Montana.
Highs on Monday may climb a few degrees over todays numbers, with dewpoints still in the low 70s east and upper 60s west. By Monday night a broad mid-level ridge will be in place across the eastern U.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The Inter-Mountain region. Most of the high res guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled out. Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to Monday. Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the west-southwest increases over Colorado.
Lows are expected to fall to the low to mid 70s. An upper trough will kick into the Northern Plains on Monday and drive a cold front east.
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Streamline analysis shows a broad Bermuda ridge axis extending from Tampa Bay to Sebastian Inlet to Great Abaco Island, though steering flow remains weak flow with mean southerly winds arnd 10KTS. Bermuda Ridge axis will drift northward acrs the central Peninsula as a storm system centered over the Georges Bank lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Furthermore, mid lvl thermal ridge over the FL Straits (H70 temps btwn 10C-11C) will work its way northward under the increasing S/SE flow. (modified prev disc) The Bermuda Ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the FL panhandle/north FL peninsula.
The Low that was responsible for the recent unsettled weather will move into Idaho this afternoon. Weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the area tonight through much of Monday.
Despite all this, temperatures were about to climb into the low to mid 80s across lower Michigan. With ample low level moisture, dewpoints in the upper 50s, and possibility of some cirrus overnight, temperatures tonight should hold in the low 60s. Mid level ridge will continue to build over the central plains and into the midwest states this evening through the overnight. This trough will nudge the ridge eastward over the Great Lakes with the ridge axis passing east of the area Monday evening resulting in deep layer southwesterly flow.
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Dry and pleasant weather arrives today with high pressure over the region. Warmer and more humid as we head through the work week.
156 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather today into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. High temperatures today will reach into the lower to mid 80s, with highs on Monday warming into the mid to possibly upper 80s.
A weak wave in the overall flow may be enough to get a few more isolated storms to develop this afternoon near a warm front also located across northern Missouri and southern Iowa.
Bermuda high pressure will build across the area this week, bringing typical summertime heat and humidity along with a daily risk for showers and thunderstorms.
Upper trough is moving into the northern Rockies from the PacNW, with northwesterly flow in its wake across interior NorCal. Temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler today and are very mild for mid-July. Warming will return to the region beginning Monday as heights aloft and thickness rebound behind the departing trough.
Unseasonably strong upper level low over the Pacific Northwest will move into western Montana by this evening. Precipitation has been a bit slow in developing, but moisture associated with an upper level low over WA/OR continues to stream into the area. As the upper level low moves east on Monday, a strengthening W/NW wind will develop, especially by late Monday morning.
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure over the region today will transition to the east over the next few days. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s across the fa today. H5 ridge builds east into the region on Monday. This ridge will provide dry weather with a warming trend.
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A weak cold front will drop into the area today, bringing slightly lower humidity before returning north on Monday. Bermuda high pressure will build westward through mid-week, bringing near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures, along with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Latest obs show the cold front has stalled over our area just south of a line from ILM-CPC-MAO-FLO. A consensus of guidance lifts the front back north this afternoon and evening, with a warm and moist southerly flow re- asserting itself as high pressure builds back in from the south.
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure ridge axis just off to the east, and light southerly winds are dominating the surface. 07z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into Illinois. ridging is building over the Plains in response to a deep trough digging across the Pacific Northwest. Will need to keep an eye on this system, but think it will completely dissipate by early to mid afternoon across central Iowa as it tries to push into the prevailing ridge axis and unfavorably dry airmass further east. As high pressure shifts off to the east, the very warm/humid airmass poised just southwest of Illinois will filter back northward by Monday.
Additional convection moving east across the highway 20 corridor will likely make it into the north before the storms become elevated this evening.
An Upper level ridge axis across the plains will shift east into the mid and upper MS river valley Tonight. An upper level trough across the western US will move east into the central Rockies late Tonight. Since the upper ridge axis will be moving across the CWA this afternoon, I don't expect any ascent for isolated afternoon or early evening thunderstorms to develop. It will be another warm day with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure is strengthening over the area, and the weak mid-level shear axis can be seen on satellite loops to be shifting SE to the TX coast. The dry Nly flow will probably drop dewpoints and min temps a few degrees tonight over western and northern counties, Monday will see the south winds begin to increase again as the upper ridge flattens back over the Srn Plains. Meanwhile cooler temps and humidity may not be felt at all over areas along and east of I-35. Some fire weather impacts may be felt in the next two days beneath the shifting upper ridge.
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A general area of troughiness across the Four-State Region coupled with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s and lingering old outflow boundaries, has led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms late this aftn, mainly across the ARKLATEX. The UA trough will linger across the area tomorrow, though lifting Northeast leading to best precip chances shifting to the Eastern zones.
/issued 235 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Convection was noticeably reduced yesterday and this trend will continue through the end of the week as an upper level high moves over the area. The past several days the high center was displaced to the south and west allowing weak disturbances and strong daytime heating to cause storms to form. Now the high center is much closer to the CWA shoving any disturbances to our north and increasing a mid level inversion that will cap any buoyant upward motion. The high will not be moving anywhere the next seven days allowing for a very persistent pattern in regards to both PoPs and temps with highs not varying by more than a few degrees this forecast period.
1253 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Strong upper system moving through the northern High Plains will break down the ridge with surface cold front moving through early Monday morning. Surface cold front will be located along the southeast fringe of the forecast area at peak heating Monday afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s behind the front and upper 90s ahead of it.
Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern Montana and southwest North Dakota.
Carney Forecast for today will depend a lot on where the warm frontal boundary is located.
These waves are originating from a weak upper level low parked over the lower MS Valley. While the low level atmosphere will be characterized as slight to moderately unstable, bulk shear relatively weak. If skies become/remain overcast, max temps 3-4 degrees cooler may be realized.
206 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset, to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold front.
Tonight Through Monday The forewarned Pacific low pressure trough has spread strong southwest wind and low relative humidity over Natrona and Johnson counties. Over and near the western and northern mountains widespread showers and thunderstorms will move in this evening with less coverage over the lower elevations. Monday Night THROUGH Sunday Monday night will be a bit warmer with a few showers lingering across the north with general decrease in wind. the extended will be warmer and mostly dry except for a threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms in and near the northern mountains.
317 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of thunderstorms has fored along a cold frontal boundary in eastern Montana and southwest North Dakota.
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. High pressure will be overhead and the wind should go calm almost everywhere. High pressure in control. 590 dam upper-level ridge in place over the region Monday will gradually slide eastward through midweek, allowing moisture to slowly work in from the SW and making above normal temperatures feel more uncomfortable. Heat/humidity will taper back over the NW, but above normal temps/dewpoints will linger into the weekend over the SE as a nearly stationary weak warm frontal boundary lingers near the Mason/Dixon line. High pressure will allow VFR to dominate over the next few days.
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will build overhead tonight before sliding east Monday. A trough will move into the Great Lakes late in the week bringing back chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered just upstream will settle over the region tonight providing mainly clear skies and light winds, allowing for good radiational cooling. High pressure will continue to dominate Monday as it drifts slowly into New England. Developing warm air advection will push afternoon temperatures away from the lakes into the lower to mid 80s. After a respite this weekend, mid-summer heat will once again build across the forecast area as a stout upper level ridge currently over the Great Plains makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes.
Clear skies along with light winds tonight will allow temperatures to dip into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak at many locations with a few of the coldest areas dipping to freezing.
In the near term, low amplitude mid level trough continues to sag across ern tx keeping mid/high clouds in place over much of sern TX this afternoon. in its stead, a flat ridge will become established and hold through the week. Forecast will remain near climatology with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Heat indicies in the lower to mid 100s will reamin in play each day.
Isolated showers being picked up on radar due to midlevel trough passing overhead.
A dry cold front and weak upper trough are forecast to move over the northern half of the state tonight, bringing a little relief from the heat on Monday. The slightly cooler airmass is also going to contain a bit more stability, so no shower activity is expected.
Thus it appears the cold front was trying to develop E of KBIL. Jet divergence will move north during the evening and more divergence will affect the western zones overnight as the jet rotates around the low into eastern MT. The upper low and accompanying q-vector convergence will move through the region tonight. The low will lift NE Mon. Airmass will be cooler and soundings showed a lot of wind potential with the GFS showing more wind than the WRF. Still expect a few inches of snow in the higher elevations through Mon.
Remnants of first convective system continue to diminish this afternoon, with stronger convection diving southeast along better CAPE gradient /warm front/. This forcing will likely work on warm front that is southwest of the area and lead to new development back over the Dakots this evening. Now that convection in Iowa is pushing off, warm front might be able to progress north afterall and take newly developed convective system northeast towards Twin Cities and northwest Wisconsin overnight. As previously mentioned wave sweeps across northern tier states to start the week, area of favored convection will progress east ahead of and along associated cold front.
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. High pressure will be overhead and the wind should go calm almost everywhere. High pressure in control. 590 dam upper-level ridge in place over the region Monday will gradually slide eastward through midweek, allowing moisture to slowly work in from the SW and making above normal temperatures feel more uncomfortable. Heat/humidity will taper back over the NW, but above normal temps/dewpoints will linger into the weekend over the SE as a nearly stationary weak warm frontal boundary lingers near the Mason/Dixon line. High pressure will allow VFR to dominate over the next few days.
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Mid level high pressure in clear control of SW US weather today. Otherwise, surface pressure trough will maintain a breezy south wind through Monday and we will add a couple more degrees for highs Monday under slowly expanding layer thickness, rendering all locations near the century mark once again.
Otherwise, high pressure will hold strong as temperatures top out in the mid 80s. a weak upper level trough axis was situated from the lower Mississipi Valley to eastern Kentucky this morning. Deep moisture and precip potential was located on the forward/southeast side of the trough.
Models have trended a little slower with the arrival of pcpn late Monday night, mainly due to slower timing of a s/w trof and associated sfc trof.
Remnants of first convective system continue to diminish this afternoon, with stronger convection diving southeast along better CAPE gradient /warm front/. This forcing will likely work on warm front that is southwest of the area and lead to new development back over the Dakotas this evening. Now that convection in Iowa is pushing off, warm front might be able to progress north afterall and take newly developed convective system northeast towards Twin Cities and northwest Wisconsin overnight. As previously mentioned wave sweeps across northern tier states to start the week, area of favored convection will progress east ahead of and along associated cold front.
Aloft, a SW to NE oriented mid/upper level trof is continuing to provide diffluent flow over SE TX/LA and the instability. For Monday, expect the highest chances of SHRA/TSRA to remain over LA, as the mid/upper trof axis lies across the TX coast through the lower MS valley.
1238 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 H5 ridge axis has shifted further east this evening,however this still remains the dominant feature across the central US. At the surface a stronger lee trough is in place closer to the front range, with sw surface gradient across much of our cwa. Monday-Monday night: A strong negatively tilted upper low will move through the northern plains with a cold front dropping south across our CWA.
Meanwhile, in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a positively tilted trough over the Tennessee Valley has resulted in a southwest flow aloft across the region. Low temperatures tonight should be in the lower to mid 70s. The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with a few more clouds expected.
An unseasonably cool low pressure will bring periods of wet and unsettled weather to northwest Oregon and southwest Washington today.
246 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Below average temperatures and gusty winds are expected this evening as a weak upper level trough moves through the region. Temperatures will rebound later this week as high pressure returns. Large scale upper low moving inland into the PAC NW has brought a welcomed cool down across the Central CA Interior. We have seen decent overnight recoveries across the region with the cooler airmass in place. as the low center will rapidly weaken over the nrn plains and open up and move east into the Great Lakes.
Remnant cloud cover from this morning's convection may put a dent in today's high temperature forecast, but still expect values at least into the upper 70s to maybe the lower 80s. Surface warm front races across the forecast area on Monday as a 500 hPa closed low moves into the High Plains. Dewpoints into the lower 70s will result in MUCAPE values to at least 2500 J/kg, possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg. Expect thunderstorms to first develop Monday afternoon along the MN/Dakotas border south into eastern NE/western IA within axis of extreme instability and along eastward advancing cold front.
1257 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Unseasonably strong low pressure moves east tonight leaving well below average temperatures for Monday morning.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near or a few degrees above normal. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the Pacific NW/northern Great Basin are expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period.
More seasonable weather will return on Monday as this weekend's cold upper trough moves to the Rockies and a progressive low amplitude ridge moves into the west coast.