Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1050 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 CIRCULATION FROM COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE COOLEST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER IN SOME AREAS. /ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS THAT IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD. POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
1236 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 13 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A MORE TIGHTLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.
436 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POST FRONTAL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA TODAY HAS LED TO VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE. I- 12 AND NORTHWARD SHOULD BE BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR LOWS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN MISSISSIPPI POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK. ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL START PUMPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE EVENING. BUMPED UP FCST HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE COOLER WATERS WILL LIMIT WARMING.
257 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WITH LOWER PRESSURES NOTED ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDL AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 13 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
Meanwhile, an attendant cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. For Sunday, highs may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas during the day.
Areas of light drizzle (West Central AR)/freezing drizzle (NW AR) will develop around 12z with ceiling heights falling below 1000 feet.
WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING WIND HAVE REDUCED REDUCED THE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS OUR COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BELIEVE IT WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSULATION ALONG WITH THE WINDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS ARE LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE LOWER BASIN AND ALONG THE BLUE FOOTHILLS.
136 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BORDERLAND FOR ANOTHER WEEK TO COME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALOFT AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTERACTING WITH BROAD 1036 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST.
SKIES ARE CLR ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW SITUATED SW OF HOU/GLS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT NOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH LOUISIANA COAST. FEATURE PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCE DEEPER INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARMING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLIES MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH ADVANCES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
As the moisture profile becomes more shallow and the lift weakens there may also be some patchy freezing drizzle late Sunday morning and afternoon across parts of central and southeast MO. With forecast snow amounts increasing slightly from the previous forecast, plus the inclusion of sleet and freezing drizzle across parts of the area have expanded the winter weather advisory to our entire forecast area for late tonight and Sunday.
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
1027 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS AND TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO. A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW TO 13 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS.
The forecast area is really being split by wintry weather, both spatially and temporally, with snowfall in our northeast and light freezing drizzle in our south. The snowfall will likely start earlier (late this evening) than the freezing drizzle, which may hold off unto closer to sunrise. Strong isentropic ascent will eventually saturate the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere in north central to northeastern Missouri. The other aspect of this wintry episode is the potential for freezing drizzle in the southern half of the forecast area. First, the lowest several thousand feet never really saturate. Second, by the time saturation begins to lower, the warm front lifts through, warms the surface above freezing and desaturates the sounding aloft. However, freezing drizzle can have a major impact on travel as it can be deceptive in it's ability to slicken roads.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. AND WILL ENCOUNTER SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SOUTH/WEST.
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME BACK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS UPPER TROUGHING SWINGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON IN MOST OF. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
337 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY CAUSING LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING CROSS LAKE FETCH WITH SUBSIDENCE/WAA ALOFT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
1120 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 930 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ 850 MB ANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SC THRU CENTRAL AL AND AR.
1255 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U. WILL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STRETCHING INTO FLORIDA. BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
1117 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 ALLOWED THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 2 MILES AND ONE HALF MILE DUE TO FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS THE AREA LIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING FOG THAT WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. AND EVEN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. I DON'T SEE A LOT OF SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS TO INTENSIFY THE PRECIP HERE IN THE MID STATE. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING WINTER EVENT BUT FORTUNATELY ENOUGH WARMER TEMPS GET ADVECTED INTO THE MID STATE AND THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WHERE IT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CHANGE OVER OCCURS IN THAT AREA.
VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL.
225 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING SWD WHICH IS ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. WITH MINS LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THEN INCHING UPWARD AS WARMER GULF AIR SPREADS EWD.
A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND CNTRL.
WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING WIND HAVE REDUCED REDUCED THE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STRONG, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
252 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 1037 MB Canadian high pressure over IL at mid afternoon will move into the upper Ohio river valley of WV/PA by 12Z/6 am Sunday. Remain concerned that a period of freezing drizzle may occur in the late afternoon/night time hours Sunday as the deeper moisture peels away and ice crystals are lost. Have allowed for a brief period of freezing drizzle on the back edge of the precipitation Sunday night. In any event, current Winter Weather Advisory looks good and can easily be extended if confidence grows in the freezing drizzle threat.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST WHERE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST (COOLER NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER). WITH SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALREADY.
H5 ANALYSIS PLACES A POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT MIGRATES TO THE EAST TO EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIATE AS SLEET AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MODERATE NICELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE REGION OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO SHRINK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD DROP TO OR EVEN JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO REMAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 1050 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ CIRCULATION FROM COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE COOLEST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER IN SOME AREAS. /ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS THAT IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA.
658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR THE KLFT/KARA TAF SITES THEN SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LAFAYETTE IS CURRENTLY HAVING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY.
553 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
840 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT.
645 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
334 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY LEAVING A MUCH LIGHTER EAST WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. LAST EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE STATE STILL SHOW AN APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 10KFT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT DECEMBER- LIKE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. BOTH THE LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL RIDGE RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING AT LEAST ACROSS THE ERN FRIDGES OF THE PLATEAU THRU THE AFTERNOON HRS. OTHER THAN SOME INITIAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING THRU THE REGION.
/ISSUED 329 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015/ MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
COLD FRONT NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF CROSSVILLE AROUND 20Z.
514 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 320 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER A BROAD STREAM OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY AFTER 18Z WITH THE HELP OF UPPER JET SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH FROM THE CURRENT VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA AFTER 12-15Z WED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
954 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPS TRICKY WITH EARLY ONSET CAA ACRS FAR WRN/NWRN CAA TO MORE MID AFTERNOON THERMAL RIDGE PIVOT OVER SERN CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT EFFECTS OF LAGGARD UPPER LOW WITH SECONDARY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/DCVA BEGINS TO APPROACH NWRN CWA. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. A BIT OF A TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST GIVEN WEAK THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY BUT ALSO BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET/SLOWED BY FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. DID EXPAND POPS IN THE 00- 06Z TIMEFRAME WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SLOWER EXIT OF UPPER LOW.
401 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENTLY THIS MORNING WE HAVE A COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR STEP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE SHOULD SEE A TAD COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. WITH THE LOW RAIN AMOUNTS OF RECENT DAYS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM LOOKS BETTER AND WILL GO WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL HELP COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK POST FRONT. MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.
708 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
A cold front was entering west central KY as of 230 am this morning. The cold front will push through the area this morning with the end of the rainfall lagging behind it by an hr or two. Expect high temps to be reached early in the day with highs ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Temps will fall throughout the day behind the fropa into the lower 50s/upper 40s. Some areas will see only partly cloudy skies before thick low level clouds arrive with an upper trough. Will forecast lows in the lower 30s/mid 40s with a good gradient across central KY that may need to be adjusted. A vorticity max swinging through the base of the upper level trough combined with a thick moisture layer in low levels should be enough to produce some sprinkles late Wed afternoon/early evening.
The approaching cold front is still well to the west, stretching through northern Alabama and southern Mississippi.
527 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SNOW PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
716 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SIOUXLAND UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER MS RIVER BY 00Z WITH MAINLY NEUTRAL BUT SOME PATCHY FORCING AT BEST INTO IA AS IT PULLS AWAY. THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND BACK INTO FAR NWRN IA BY AFTERNOON SO A BRIEF FLIP BACK TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE. ROAD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP RATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THAT EITHER. FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE LIMITED TO WARMER SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAD LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY. INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR THE PAST WEEK. A SECONDARY SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT OVERRIDES SOME COLD AIR STILL TRAPPED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POCKETS OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN, COLUMBIA GORGE AND PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY.