Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE THROUGH RIDGE.
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ WITH A PRETTY STOUT RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER.
/ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER RUNS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE THROUGH RIDGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SETUP SYNOPTICALLY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. THE HIGHER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON TUESDAY AS THE ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN AND THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS WEST.
80-90KT JET CURVING AROUND THE TOP OF A STRONG MULTI-STATE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIBBON OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD HAS SHOWED HEATING ACRS THE REGION ENOUGH TO SQUELCH CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NENR COLORADO UP TO THIS POINT. OVERALL PROGGED 6-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY WHICH ALLOWS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM NRN MEXICO TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACRS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. THERE WL BE A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS.
807 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
608 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OK/TX REGION AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST BEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TONIGHT AND THE SECOND BEING THE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN THE NE/KS/IA/MO REGION AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER AND MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
903 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA ARE OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DRY 500 MB RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF.
704 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FROM TEXAS. NOSING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA.
843 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND S CENTRAL CANADA WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE RESPONSE WILL SWING SE INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FROM TEXAS. NOSING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. BENEATH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
WITH LOW PRESSURE (1006 MILLIBARS) OVER NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). WEAK RIDGING HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
HOWEVER LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ONGOING STORMS/LIMITED INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW/MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ~KTOP.
958 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CLAUDETTE MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
1033 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF WCST. RIDGE CNTRL WITH CENTER OVR TX. INCLUDING WY WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THRU. THEN TROF ERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SW WITHIN RIDGE MOVING INTO SWRN ID. SFC HAS GENERALLY WEAK HIGH P OVR WY WITH A WEAK TROF ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE. TERRAIN CONVERGENCE OVR THE HIGHER PEAKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS.
AND HUMID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
Temperatures have fallen into the low/mid 80s across the CWA as of 945 PM with dewpoints typically in the 60s. However, both Coleman and Brownwood AWOS sites are reporting dewpoints in the lower 70s. These values should decrease with time, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 70s across the area by sunrise Tuesday. A strengthening upper level high pressure area centered over the forecast area will continue to bring hot and dry weather. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s, with highs Tuesday in the upper 90s and possibly a few triple digit readings.
941 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
908 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON AND HAWTHORNE HAVE WANED INTO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF FALLON.
VERY HIGH /WARM/ TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW LEVEL THIS EVENING. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
900 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FOR EVENING UPDATE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 73 /ISSUED 608 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
933 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SECONDARY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES TO LEE OF PLAINS UPPER RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT MAIN CHC OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT IS PROGGED TO COME ACRS THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION. LONGER RANGE PROGS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE MIGRATION ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY MAY SHUNT THE MAIN STORMS TRACK JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LIKE A MORE NORMAL DEEP SUMMER PATTERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND FAIR SKIES.
A WEAK SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER RUNS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
740 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DRIVE COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR REVEAL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX THIS EVENING.
A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE THROUGH RIDGE.
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CLAUDETTE MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
1248 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SMALL SUBSIDENCE RIDGE JUST ABOVE THE 500 MB LEVEL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS HINT THAT A LITTLE MIGHT EVEN MAKE IT WEST OF THE WASATCH TOMORROW EVE AS THE FLOW BACKS A BIT AHEAD OF THE W COAST TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY THEN. THE 18Z GFS DID NOT BRING THIS TROF THRU THE ERN GREAT BASIN AS SOLIDLY AS EARLIER RUNS AND THIS IMPLIES THE EAST MAY NOT DRY OUT AS MUCH AFTER MIDWEEK. STRONG RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
820 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 10 AND 30K FEET TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING OF THE MID LAYER THANKS TO THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN CAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IN RETURN KEEPS THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER VERY LOW.
329 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP A GOOD DISTANCE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.
311 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED SW-NE ACROSS KANSAS.
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
Easterly surface flow will prevail today with a weak area of low pressure developing off the east coast of Florida.
243 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN.
A cold front will move into the area early Saturday morning with rain chances increasing. Satl imagery continues to show the subtropical ridge anchored over Texas. A trof continues to move across the Intermountain West. and a thetae ridge there could be isolated/scattered thunderstorms over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns east into the Central Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains. As the trof translates east across the northern tier of states the ridge will flatten and a cold front will sag south into the CWA on Saturday. It looks like the cold front will stall north of the Rio Grande.
335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE SD EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY DROP SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. BUT OVERNIGHT WILL SEE ENOUGH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-MID 40S. BUT ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS.
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.
415 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A cold front was positioned from the Oklahoma panhandle through Eastern Kansas into Northern Missouri. spreading southeast across Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and across the rest of the CWA this evening and overnight as the cold front nears/enters the CWA. while much cooler air filters into the rest of the CWA.
1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 846 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINLY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES.
349 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LARGE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
1213 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 JUST A FEW SHOWERS NOTED SO FAR OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR JET STREAK AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 700MB TEMPS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS THOUGH A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN A SMALL POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
VFR conditions will prevail for much of the day with convection not expected to impact NE OK sites until mid/late afternoon and spreading southeastward through the early morning hours on Saturday associated with the progressing cold front. /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ A cold front was positioned from the Oklahoma panhandle through Eastern Kansas into Northern Missouri. spreading southeast across Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and across the rest of the CWA this evening and overnight as the cold front nears/enters the CWA. while much cooler air filters into the rest of the CWA.
At the surface, a cold front was nearly stationary over the northwest quarter of the forecast area in northwest Missouri. A second area of convection is expected to develop around sunrise north of the cold front over northwest Missouri, generally NW STJ. A mixed storm mode is expected with an eventual evolution into a line along whatever serves as the effective cold front. Temperatures today will be strongly tied to morning convection and remnant cloud debris, as well as the position of the cold front. A conditional threat for convection exists later this evening as well advertised cold front sags south towards the area. largely expect VFR conditions through the period with precip chances increasing after 15z when main cold front begins working through the area.
AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S AREA WIDE AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THOSE READINGS BY MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR WATER AND NEAR LOW LYING COOLER OR RURAL ZONES. 56/GDG AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
418 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE ARKLAMISS WEATHER AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. AN IMPRESSIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH ~ 20 DEG C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR SATURDAY.
250 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 This morning is starting out rather warm and muggy across the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s as of 2 AM. Readings likely won't fall much more through sunrise, with a persistent south to southeast breeze keeping the lower atmosphere fairly well mixed this morning. The main focus for today will be on an approaching cold front, currently aligned from the western Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. A few of the high resolution models are attempting to develop convection along outflow further southeast into the CWA by early to mid afternoon, though right now we do expect the bulk of the activity to remain tied to the cold front. Temperatures on Saturday look to be rather cool, with highs in the low to perhaps mid 70s.
326 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT HAS PUSHED IT BACK FURTHER NORTH FOR NOW. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND IT SHOULD GET AN ADDED BOOST LATER TONIGHT FROM A SECONDARY SURGE THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM WYOMING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. IF WE STAY UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY. THEN THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE WILL BE BEST WITH TEMPERATURES. IF THE COOLER NAM DOES VERIFY.
TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN. ALSO WENT A TAD COOLER FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING NEAR WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL PREVAIL WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY BRINGING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. AND BRING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
Satl imagery continues to show the subtropical ridge anchored over Texas. A trof continues to move across the Intermountain West. and a thetae ridge there could be isolated/scattered thunderstorms over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns east into the Central Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains. As the trof translates east across the northern tier of states the ridge will flatten and a cold front will sag south into the CWA on Saturday. It looks like the cold front will stall north of the Rio Grande.
424 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A RAPID WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY FOR NW CA THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC. WITH INTERIOR VALLEY TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S SATURDAY.
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER AND WEAKEN WITH 850 MB TROUGH CROSSING REGION. WITH OMEGA INCREASING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPINGING ON STATIONARY BOUNDARY. COOLER 925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE IL INTO SRN LOWER MI.
401 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 SATELLITE INTERROGATION AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING EAT OF DAYTONA AND JACKSONVILLE. MOST OF THE PV HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH EARLIER PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WERE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE KEYS.
149 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
259 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND LA THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED START TO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
328 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST MEASURED AMOUNT SO FAR HAS BEEN 3.
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED START TO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
149 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WARM DRY WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
244 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A cold front will move across our region early Saturday, bringing cooler weather and a chance of showers. The debris cloudiness from mcs activity in the Lower Missouri Valley is not likely to play much of a role in our weather today. The cold front will reach southern IL and southeast MO very late tonight. This activity will continue along and immediately behind the front as it crosses the Lower Ohio Valley in the morning hours Saturday. The cold front will exit western KY early in the afternoon. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s behind the front to the lower 80s ahead of the front. On Saturday night, cooler air will filter southward into our area on light north winds.