Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
557 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A low pressure system north of the international border will continue to propagate to the east this evening. Surface ridging begins to build in and aides in clearing out the skies briefly until our next system begins to encroach from the north.
as the upper low over northern Mexico approaches West Central Texas. Otherwise, rain chances will continue for much of the day on Wednesday as the upper low pivots overhead. It will be much cooler as well with highs only in the upper 40s and 50s.
/issued 327 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Cold front has pushed south of the area. Over the next 48 hours an upper low will slowly move east from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley.
For the rest of the forecast, raised chances of showers a bit this afternoon as development has finally commenced ahead of the approaching cold front across NE TX/N LA. Possible limitation will be the cooler marine layer that will persist due to the cooler shelf waters, with some areas of marine fog likely during this time. Still some uncertainly on where the maximum rainfall maximums will occur, could be very well north of the region if the low tracks further north than expected.
The morning inversion and perhaps some precipitation will keep winds at bay initially, but as the inversion breaks (around 10 AM to 12 PM but earlier in the higher terrain of the Little Rockies), look for winds to rapidly ramp up. The strongest winds are expected to extend from southern Phillips county through to Dawson and Prairie counties, so the High Wind Warning has been extended through tomorrow evening across this area.
434 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof moving through the western Dakotas, with next upstream wave of significance (embedded within the west/northwest flow) over BC. Surface analysis shows cold front pushing through northwest SD and northeast WY, with a recent gust of 59 mph at K2WX. Current wind highlights look good, but will continue to monitor to ensure the High Wind Warning for Harding doesn't need to be expanded. Even warmer temps expected with highs in the 50s to lower 60s on the plains. Strong upper ridge builds through the Rockies and northern plains behind Wednesday's departing wave.
347 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 High pressure, mostly clear skies and surface dewpoints largely in the low to mid-20s have resulted in temperatures well into the 50s to near 60 degrees this afternoon. A couple of hi-res solutions hint at isolated showers in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois along the trough as the upper wave passes overhead. However, moisture profiles are rather convincing with the lowest 10k feet remaining rather dry. Two things could keep temperatures a touch cooler: initial northwesterly flow behind the overnight wave and potential cloud cover that streams in from the southern upper level system during the late afternoon into the late night period.
Dry and warming weather expected through the end of the week as high pressure takes control of the region.
The latest HRRR has gone even farther south, keeping the highest accumulations south of the WI/IL border, with a dusting mainly across the southern row of WI counties.
As moisture decreases behind the boundary and upper trough/jet streak forcing these, will continue to see clearing skies as rain exits off to the east. Gusty west/southwest winds will continue into this evening as a pressure gradient, between low pressure off of Lakes Erie/Ontario and high pressure nosing into the Tennessee Valley, maintains itself. Look for ridges to cool into the mid-upper 30s with valleys falling into the low-mid 30s. High pressure will slide east on Wednesday as another northern stream trough and front cross the Ohio Valley.
803 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Light low level S/SW flow in the near surface layer will keep temps mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
The cold front is now to the east of the terminals with drier air moving in behind the departing surface boundary. For Wednesday, surface ridging will remain the main weather feature producing dry conditions most locations.
900 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A cold front will pass through the region tonight. High pressure will build overhead Wednesday before a weak cold front passes through Wednesday night.
1022 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Quiet weather continues in the short term with the upper low over old Mexico passing well to our south, putting southern CO under northwest flow aloft. A weak front moves through southeast Colorado this evening as a northern stream trof ejects from MT/WY into the plains. For Wednesday, even warmer temperatures are expected as northwest flow aloft increases and lee trof develops and deepens in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect a nice warm day for much of the area with highs in the 60s across the plains, mid 40s and 50s for the valleys and lower mountain communities, and 20s and 30s for the high country.
A closed upper-level low continues to spin toward the Big Bend of TX this evening with a northern stream trough over Great Lakes. The cold front has moved well south of the CWA, but short-range models are indicating some elevated frontogentic forcing over the top of the frontal zone near 700 mb. /issued 327 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Cold front has pushed south of the area. Over the next 48 hours an upper low will slowly move east from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
A second round of more widespread precipitation is still expected to develop at KLBB overnight and continue past sunrise until a cold front pushes through and helps clear precipitation out. Upper level low pressure along the Sonora- Chihuahua border will continue east and slightly northeast passing about midway between the I-10 and I-20 corridors by late Wednesday. RMAC Upper level high pressure will approach and pass late in the week leading to a warmer, drier period.
High pressure west of the state will build east today, pushing the overnight system out of the area and allowing for a return of southerly flow by this afternoon and evening.
/Issued 601 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Upper low currently located well south of El Paso, remaining over northern Mexico this evening. Isentropic conveyor belt in full swing to the east and northeast of the upper low, but nearly all of the rain will stay away from the Panhandles. Tonight and Wednesday Closed upper low over Mexico will track eastward tonight into southwest Texas allowing for some light rain to spread north and east into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. The closed upper low will continue ejecting eastward into central Texas Wednesday with the light rain shifting south out of the forecast area Wednesday.
The old cold front has pushed south and stalled but is expected to drift back northward through the period. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 45 55 39 54 / 40 50 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 54 38 49 / 10 30 70 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 42 55 38 49 / 10 20 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 39 54 35 44 / 10 10 50 30 30.
A west-component boundary layer wind is forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night, so thermal profiles heading into Wednesday night will support liquid rain p-type moreso than a frozen/freezing p-type. But, that should work to enhance mixing and keep temperatures warmer than freezing during most of the time that precipitation chances are in the forecast Wednesday night.
Winds will remain light through the short term but become more southerly behind a high pressure center making its way during the afternoon hours seeing less than 10-15 mph during this time. Mainly clear skies will extend through this time under the influence of building higher heights of an upper level ridge extending across the Rockies and into the high plains.
High pressure building over the region and northerly offshore flow will maintain a warming trend through Wednesday. A cooling trend is forecast through the second half of the week as winds shift back onshore and an upper level trough approaches. Rain chances return to the region over the weekend as a cold front moves across the district. High clouds are arriving from the west, surface winds are mainly light accompanying a medium to broad mid level ridge extending from the eastern Pacific to the cwa. High pressure will weaken mid to late week.
Thick mid and high-level clouds will continue to spread east-northeastward across the region, well downstream from a slow-moving upper low over northern Mexico.
A weak cold front has managed to push southward to near the I-20 corridor. South of the cold front, bands of showers and a few thunderstorms have been tracking from west to east.
Good low level warming ahead of an associated sfc cold front, which also has decent frontogenetic response along it. Should get a break from the pcpn as the front exits east Thu morning, but could back into some showers post the parent low, along an inverted trough hanging off to the west and cyclonic flow a loft.
Large upper ridge will move from the western CONUS and across the central plains through the end of the week. Cold front will move through Wednesday night with a brief period of gusty northwest winds.
251 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A warm front associated with an upper level low over South TX is extending northeast into Southern MS and Southern AL.
Skies will be clear overnight before more clouds crossing the upper ridge over the western US reach the area. Cold front has pushed well south of forecast area with high pressure over the Great Basin. Even warmer temps expected with highs in the 50s to lower 60s on the plains. Strong upper ridge builds through the Rockies and northern plains behind Wednesday's departing wave.
1151 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A low pressure system north of the international border will continue to propagate to the east this evening. Surface ridging begins to build in and aides in clearing out the skies briefly until our next system begins to encroach from the north.
Surface analysis depicts a weak ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across South Florida, with the Keys lying within gentle ESE flow to the south of this axis. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows ridging over the Caribbean, South Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico, with a deep closed low spinning over northern Mexico. The 00Z Key West sounding reflected the influence of the ridge aloft, with a strong inversion based at 4600 feet and slightly below normal PW of 0.
1111 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 High pressure, mostly clear skies and surface dewpoints largely in the low to mid-20s have resulted in temperatures well into the 50s to near 60 degrees this afternoon. A couple of hi-res solutions hint at isolated showers in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois along the trough as the upper wave passes overhead. However, moisture profiles are rather convincing with the lowest 10k feet remaining rather dry. Two things could keep temperatures a touch cooler: initial northwesterly flow behind the overnight wave and potential cloud cover that streams in from the southern upper level system during the late afternoon into the late night period.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will continue over the region through Wednesday.
As a closed upper low slowly moves across western Texas tonight, a weak ridge axis will be allowed to build over Colorado on the eastern edge of a large ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific. As northwest flow aloft increases again over northern Colorado Wednesday afternoon, a fairly strong surface lee trough will develop across the eastern plains. At this time, will hold off on critical fire weather highlights as the window for best fire conditions of low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds will be short lived as we move into cooler evening temps and higher relative humidities. Fuel moisture across much of the lower elevations are still on the moist side from recent snowfall. Winds should stay gusty across the northern border and eastern plains Wednesday evening as a cold front moves across the plains.
The end result is expected to be very similar to yesterday with most locations seeing highs in the low 60s.
Fuel alternate is likely at KSBN where stronger forcing and slightly cooler temps reside.
Split flow highlights the upper pattern this morning with northern stream broad longwave troughing atop much of the east/central CONUS, while the southern stream features a closed H5 cyclone over northern Mexico lofting moisture across the lower/mid MS valley. At the surface, the old cold front has slowed/stalled across the Deep South, northeast into the Carolinas, while weak high pressure resides over the OH/TN valleys.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only BKN/OVC high clouds as upper low shifts east into Texas. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only BKN/OVC high clouds as upper low shifts east into Texas. /Issued 229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Upper low currently moving across northern Mexico will track into far west TX by Wed morning and through the Arklatex region Wednesday night.
358 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 The morning surface analysis reveals high pressure nosing east into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valley. This is leading to decent ridge and valley temperature splits, with low 30s in some valleys versus the upper 40s on some of the ridges. This high pressure will push east today and perhaps a weaker gradient sets up across the region ahead of a weak low pressure to the north. This front will push across the area and become more diffuse overtime and high pressure will progress southeast in the wake. This will lead to another night of ridge/valley temperature splits, but did not go too aggressive given clouds could temper this some.
219 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Brief visit of high pressure will be followed by a weak clipper accompanied by little moisture through the northern half of the state later Wednesday.
Along with the lower cigs and convection, blustery NE winds will also be impacting all sites with speeds ranging from around 12-18 kts with higher gusts closer to 25 kts through the latter half of the period Wednesday. /issued 1008 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Cold front continues to work its way across our far southern zones this evening with falling temperatures in its wake. Meanwhile, the upper level trough and associated closed low continue to shift east along the Rio Grande Valley with an extensive moisture shield spreading across the eastern half of Texas and over much of our remaining Four-State Region.
Initially, moisture will be shallow through the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
The rain is ahead of an upper level low which is centered over far west Texas. As this low continues to move slowly east into north central Texas, rain will continue to move north into the Mid-South today. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs in the low to mid 60s. The upper low will continue to move east tonight and begins to weaken with more rain expected to move across the region.
1232 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
326 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 A cold front is expected to push through the region today with a chance for rain and snow showers. Look for northwest winds to ramp up this afternoon and evening with the High Wind Warning remaining on track, especially for terrain favored locations such as the Big Sheeps and Little Rockies. Tonight into Thursday will feature somewhat cooler, though still milder than average temperatures over the CWA, along with drying conditions.
Expect highs to range from around 40 across the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley to the low to mid 50s west and south central. A cold front will sweep across the state this evening and tonight, bringing strong winds late once again across the region in its wake. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind the front, mainly in the low 30s to low 40s. Regarding precipitation potential this afternoon, widely scattered convective showers will develop in the warm air advection regime as well as along the approaching cold front.
332 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A well developed upper low centered about the Sun Country this morning is expected to drop into the Big Bend before ejecting into the Arklatex by Thursday morning. This has resulted in a large shield of precipitation across our CWFA limited in northern extend by a cold front which as of 3 AM is roughly bisecting the area on an east-west axis. As the low shifts east of our longitude, we will see a weakening trend and a slow decrease in activity from NW to SE.
The cold front will be well south of the ArkLaMiss by this time however moisture and southerly flow will still be present.
Temperatures were in the lower 30s along Highway 20 and there may be a few slick spots. Weak high pressure will push across the cwa which will mean northwest winds will be much lighter today, generally around 10 mph. Highs should range from the lower 40s along Highway 20 to the lower 50s in our southern counties. Lows should bottom out in the lower to mid 30s, and may actually rise later tonight with the return of those southern winds.
This will force a cold front through the area Thursday morning.
342 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A warm front will remain stalled south of the area today (roughly along a line from Jackson, MS to Montgomery, AL to Columbus, GA), helping to keep the Tennessee Valley region in a stable and slightly cooler air mass. 5" expected over the next 24 hours, and the highest PoPs and QPF favoring areas south of the Tennessee River (closer to the boundary). With dense cloud cover and light precipitation over the region, temperatures will run about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs around 60 degrees. The front will slowly lift back to the north overnight into Thursday in response to an upper trough shifting from the Mississippi Valley into the Deep South region. Still, some locally heavy downpours may be possible, especially Thursday morning as the low pivots closest to our southern counties.
A warm front associated with an upper level low over South TX is extending northeast into Southern MS and Southern AL.
409 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 09z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY. Thermal profiles suggest minor snow accumulations possible over the highest Black Hills. Bufkit momentum transfer/ensemble probabilities suggest marginal wind advisory criteria over the far northwest this afternoon and then this evening with the cold front passage.
An upper level closed low to the SW of the state will move closer to the state through tonight. Expect the chances for SHRA to continue across the SRN half of the state through the rest of this afternoon as the upper closed low moves closer. This upper closed low will move east over SRN sections of the state tonight. the upper low will move east of the state.
858 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Today will be sunny with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s across central Illinois. On Thursday, a cold front will sweep across the region.
449 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night. Low pressure will move across the area Thursday.
High pressure will bring very mild temperatures, 7 to 10 degrees above normal on Thursday.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 50s across central Illinois. On Thursday, a cold front will sweep across the region.
Temperatures will once again be in the 70s inland and 60s along the coast due to high pressure over the region. Winds shift and temperatures become cooler to end the work week.
/Today through Thursday/ An upper-level low translating eastward across the ArkLaTex today will interact with a surface cold front extending across deep east Texas and central Louisiana. Locally heavy rainfall, hail and damaging winds will be the highest threats. Convection to linger through this afternoon and into tonight while gradually diminishing in intensity as upper-low becomes centered overhead and opens into a trough. Additionally, wrap around moisture behind a surface and low-level low pressure across the northern gulf will support low elevation showers across the region as it moves into the the north central Gulf of Mexico. Dry conditions expected on Thursday as upper-ridge builds areawide.
Temps will in the U20s to around 30, but were several degrees warmer along the immediate mtns/plains interface. Only concern will be breezy conditions over the eastern plains due to a lee trough moving across the region today. It will also allow cooler air to filter into the region.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend the rest of the week. A ridge building in from the west will bring strong height and thickness recoveries the next 48 hours, resulting in a rapid warming trend.
An upper level trough and associated cold front will move south through the region Thursday night.
The associated cold front will pull across the area tonight, most noticeable across N. The second, and more widespread round of strong to high wind is expected to occur as decent mixing occurs lowering the high winds into the Cody Foothills. The winds will quickly decrease late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front pulls across the area. In wake of the cold front, typical strong northwest winds will occur in the Buffalo area. Areas of light snow is expected across the far west/northwest today ending with trough passage late this afternoon into this evening. Johnson County could see some light snow this evening along the cold front. Upper level ridging Thursday with dry conditions and lighter winds than what has occurred over the past few days.
Temperatures will be cooler north where snow cover is still in place and the warmer air is slower to arrive anyway.
Tonight, as high pressure over the Atlantic stretches west over south FL, winds will become southwest and decrease to 5 to 15 knots.
A trough extends north of the low and will help pump moisture into the region through the day and into the evening. Rainfall will finally begin to slack off Thursday morning as the main low pressure system slides to our east.
300 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through tomorrow, providing a warming trend.
347 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 An upper air disturbance and surface cold front over southwestern Canada this morning will move southeastward over MT today. Southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will downslope the terrain and give another warm day. Because of the expected strong winds have continued the High Wind Warning through 6 PM MST today. The upper air disturbance will then move away from the region tonight and upper ridging will move in behind it. The upper ridge will give more tranquil weather Thursday with lighter winds and no precipitation.
A warm front will remain stalled south of the area today (roughly along a line from Jackson, MS to Montgomery, AL to Columbus, GA), helping to keep the Tennessee Valley region in a stable and slightly cooler air mass. 5" expected over the next 24 hours, and the highest PoPs and QPF favoring areas south of the Tennessee River (closer to the boundary). With dense cloud cover and light precipitation over the region, temperatures will run about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs around 60 degrees. The front will slowly lift back to the north overnight into Thursday in response to an upper trough shifting from the Mississippi Valley into the Deep South region. Still, some locally heavy downpours may be possible, especially Thursday morning as the low pivots closest to our southern counties.
235 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure will be in control of our weather through much of the week with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected.