Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM HAS UNDERGONE SOME AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BURGEONING MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AN INTENSE 973 MB LOW NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO TRAILS A STRONG COLD FRONT DUE SOUTHWARDS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 56 DEGREES.
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER-40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S. AGAIN WITHOUT BETTER MOISTURE AND NO LIFT TO SPEAK OF EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, BACK INTO THE UPPER-50S, LOW-60S IN SPOTS, WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE A LOT LIGHTER. WEAK UPSLOPE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
650 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK DOWNSLOPE WARMING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE SAN ANTONIO METRO WHERE TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WITH A WEAK DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEFORE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
627 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ALABAMA IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEP AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF GULF OF MEXICO. NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WEAKER CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 334 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ The backside of the upper low that brought precip to Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas the past couple of days had finally exited the region. as the upper low continues to move over the Great Lakes region. a trailing upper level trof axis will move across the Southern Plains. This will push a weak surface cold front through the CWA tonight with little more than a wind shift out of the northwest expected. A cooler and drier airmass will push into the region for Thursday with afternoon temps several degrees cooler compared to todays high temps. High pressure then moves across the Southern Plains Thursday night allowing for temps thursday night to fall into the 30s/low 40s across the CWA.
820 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE LOW 70S. AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME PREVAILING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SE FLOW GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NEXT 24 HOURS.
GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ENTERING FAR WESTERN FA ATTM BEHIND COLD FRONT. BEHIND COLD FRONT GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM THE VALLEY WEST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
1013 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
525 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 20z/2pm surface chart shows 980mb low over southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A secondary front/trough axis is noted further west along/just west of the Mississippi River. Southerly winds have been gusting to between 30 and 40 mph this afternoon, but will veer to the southwest this evening then to the west late tonight as the trough passes. Due to cloud cover for a good portion of the night and continued gusty winds, have gone a few degrees above MAV guidance numbers, with lows ranging from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 40s along/south of I-70. Morning upper air shows upper trough to move east across area today, gradually bringing drier air aloft in.
922 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Weak cold front to move through the area overnight.
WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED UP NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES F WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
634 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGH TNT AND INTO THURSDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWS WARM FRONT IS ENHANCING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DECENT PRECIP EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OREGON. THE LOW IS MOVING QUICK AND WILL BE EAST INTO IDAHO BY EVENING WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION.
High pressure will build in and result in dry wx and near normal temperatures for mid November.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 72 HRS WHILE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL FLATTEN THE EPAC RIDGE.
949 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAS MADE FOR A CRYSTAL CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
857 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Latest surface map indicating a secondary cold front over far western Iowa, expected to push across our area Thursday morning with a few clouds and gusty winds.
The cold front was still just west of the forecast area as of 01Z and was delineated by a narrow band of showers right along the boundary.
631 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
SO HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE N AND NE AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX 10-11Z AND KACT AROUND 13Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
Temps this afternoon were running some 2-6 deg warmer than 24 hrs ago as the air mass modified. The higher resolution Comp REF progs keep the returns mostly west or outside of our CWA. Ern Pac ridging remains strong and steers the jet stream N of CA. Ridging over the Ern Pac will maintain above normal max temps of some 4 to 8 degrees over most of the CWA Thu and Sat. The formation of an offshore closed low off the OR/CA coast on Sat will weaken the ridging over Norcal on Sat. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere Thu morning could allow for some fog to form from about Sac Swd.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
Gusty westerly winds will diminish this evening then slowly veer to the NW overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 223 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ A broad upper level trough is over the central conus today with west to northwest flow over the CWA. A weak cold front will move into the area on Thursday cooling temperatures down a few degrees but conditions are expected to remain dry.
413 PM PST WED NOV 18 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS REMAINING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND RAINS ENDING. COOLER TONIGHT WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALSO MAINTAINED THE HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG GULF BEACHES THROUGH 6PM.
937 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
934 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OVER THE REGION, THE COOLER DRY AIR WILL LAG SOMEWHAT.
BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT WARMER AT THE START TONIGHT TO HOLD OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT CAA TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORNING HIGHS OR NEAR STEADY TRENDS.
QUIET WX THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA UNDER SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER LOW IN WA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST.
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COOL NIGHT ON TAP. READINGS ARE GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE FOUND THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH IS ALSO KEEPING THE CLOUDS AT BAY WITH JUST A THIN BAND OF HIGH ONES PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. THESE WILL BE THIN ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED. THIS COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN DEEPER VALLEYS. IN SOME OF THE RIDGES. RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY UP OVER THE MID STATE ON THURSDAY.
925 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
733 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
1026 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SOUTH. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONDITIONS QUIETING OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING FARTHER EAST SO DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. A COASTAL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF MAY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. IMPACTS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA.
AHEAD OF A TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INITIALLY THE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
851 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 84 64 78 / 0 10 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 82 61 78 / 0 10 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 83 62 78 / 0 10 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 80 55 78 / 0 10 20 40.
512 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 THE REGION WILL TRANSITION INTO A SHORT STABLE PERIOD THIS EVENING AS TRANSITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD START OUT RATHER DRY MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION YET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MAIN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE FAR SW OVERNIGHT PARTIALLY WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HERE DON'T MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RIDGE. RIDGING SHOULD REDUCE RAIN CHANCES BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER RH STILL WILL LIKELY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES SETTING UP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS.
1209 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A gradual breakup of the low cloud field will occur mid to late Thursday morning, with a VFR-based cumulus field expected during the afternoon.
535 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
710 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. TONIGHT STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN EXCELLENT LAKE AGGREGATE SIGNATURE IN MSAS ANALYSIS DATA IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN PRIOR TO 12Z. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOWS TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO ISSUE ANY FREEZING WARNINGS. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF TRANQUIL BUT COOL WEATHER. SOLID PUSH OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MODEST LLJ NOSING NOSING INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA PER 12Z ECMWF.
659 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHLAND IS ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHLY ORGANIZED PRECIP BAND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AS A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF TO EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW.
748 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 AVIATION AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THAT SAME HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THURSDAY TO BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
QUITE WX THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA UNDER SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER LOW IN WA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR IN AS WELL FOR KCDS GIVEN QUICK VEERING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 35-40 KNOTS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500-2000 FEET OFF THE FLIGHT DECK.
748 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS.
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STREAM INTO MONTANA ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, PRODUCING A MIX OF MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
1137 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 AVIATION AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THAT SAME HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THURSDAY TO BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Trof currently over srn Plains will approach the region tonight. Ongoing SHRA over KS/OK/swrn MO will continue to spread nwd and gradually move ewd as the main trof pushes ewd. Will be difficult to pin down cooler areas due to precip and warmer areas due to cloud cover. This shud continue overnight as upper ridging builds into the area. PoPs will increase Sat and Sun as the upper low, currently about to make landfall over the wrn U. Have not gone too high with PoPs yet as with a lack of a jet to kick the low into the Plains, wud not be surprised to see this system delayed slightly with future cycles. Meanwhile a warm front will begin lifting through the area as well veering the wind from east to south.
SFC DEW PTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND SE WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER 60S AND NE WINDS TO THE WEST. SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT GENTLY SLIDES EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN DIVERGENT OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS NW/CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AT THIS HOUR. A GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS PENINSULAR FLORIDA IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIONWIDE.
731 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
830 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
844 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
WEAKENING CONVECTION LINGERS THIS EVENING OVER INTERIOR NE FL SOUTH OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE FL-GA LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
654 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 SOME SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THEY HAD A LITTLE BIT OF SFC HEATING. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT REMAINED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN ND AND THE HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR IN MN. AT THE SFC IT APPEARS A WEAK LOW SETS UP OVER WESTERN SD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THRU KBIS INTO NORTHEAST ND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE. SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN AREAS OF THUNDER WERE CONFINED TO CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITHIN A STRONGER AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 35-45 MPH LLJ. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE STRONGER LLJ.
800 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN FROM NORTH AND CENTER PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF CLEVELAND OH THIS EVENING. RESULTING IN A SWITCH FROM NW TO NE WINDS AS INVERTED RIDGING BEGINS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS AND AXIS PUSHES EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PUSHES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTO THE REGION. AND WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING FORCING FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH REACHES THE REGION.
1038 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR CLEAR SKIES.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD WILL THIN LEAVING OCNL THIN CI SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE. SIMILAR SETUP TOMORROW WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS E/SE. WHICH COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FL.
SINCE OUR WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. BUT ONLY A COUPLE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HINDER COOLING SOME. MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND THE FRONT IS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THESE WAVE WILL BRING THE SUPPORT TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
747 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
1147 PM CDT Wed May 13 2015 /06Z TAFS/ As the high cloud cover exits our area to the east, low cloud development is well underway, with development of a low-level jet. The low cloud field will continue to expand northward overnight, with ceilings expected to range from 500ft to 1500ft. A gradual breakup of the low cloud field will occur mid to late Thursday morning, with a VFR-based cumulus field expected during the afternoon. A gradual breakup of the low cloud field will occur mid to late Thursday morning, with a VFR-based cumulus field expected during the afternoon.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.
UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER OUR AREA WILL YIELD TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DOWN ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL LIFT THIS WAY DRAGGING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION AND THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS IS TIED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORMING IN THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED US TO REMAIN DRY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE COMING DAYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. STUMPF /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/ THE PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.