Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low over the Pacific Northwest pushes into western Montana by this evening. Strong southwest flow aloft with divergence develops over eastern Montana as the low approaches. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a strong cold front and enough instability and shear that some could be severe during the late afternoon and evening. Some strong wind gust are expected with the frontal passage this evening, but the strongest synoptic winds are anticipated for Saturday as the low lifts into Saskatchewan. Cold air advection, pressure rises and tight gradient with 700mb winds around 50kts are favorable for strong winds but clouds and lift as warm air wraps around the low producing showers could limit the wind potential.
Moving forward, northwest flow will weaken as the upper high builds over the lower MS valley.
357 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A strong trough over the northern rockies will push much of the moisture over the area to the east. The trough's cold front should begin moving into northeast Utah around 5 pm today. The front appears to get caught up in the San Juan mountains thereafter and have little influence over the lower elevations of the four corners. For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then shifts subtly east later in the week.
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Upper level ridge has spread across the southern gulf states from Texas to Florida and will generally remain over the forecast area through the weekend. Subsidence from this ridge will keep rain chances at a minimum.
Dry conditions will return later this weekend as an upper level ridge builds northeast along the Appalachians. Despite that, the environment should still be well primed for storms with dewpoints approaching 70 and plenty of shear as a mid-level trough moves into the area. Surface based instability of over 2000 J/KG with good lapse rates in both the low and mid-levels suggest that both damaging wind and hail could be a threat later today with the most likely storm mode being multi-cellular. Despite all the instability, temperatures will actually be cooler than yesterday although not much. Low temperatures friday night in the low 70s. Post-frontal cool dry air advection will support much cooler overnight lows.
/Issued 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ Upper level high is centered near DFW early this morning. An upper level low was located over northeast Mexico moving west northwest.
For the early part of the overnight period, will be evacuating pops from the southeastern ridge counties. Decided to increase clouds across portions of the south, as what is left of the cold front gets hung up in Northern West Virginia. Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the ridges during the afternoon. The will promote, at least, a modest increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the inclusion of pops in the ridges. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced convection. 500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through most of the weekend.
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Early this morning SE Texas was caught between an upper low moving inland over northeastern Mexico and a broad upper level high pressure ridge over the northern part of the state. 3 inches at 3 AM; however, a more moist airmass was moving northward from the southern Gulf around the east side of the upper low (the RAP analysis on the SPC website showed PW/s in the southern Gulf around 2 inches). Better chances will occur on Saturday as the upper level ridge retreats eastward and allows deeper layer moisture to move overhead.
Upper level ridging covering the southern third of the U. Further to the north across the Nature Coast only isolated storm coverage is again expected today due to slightly drier air and suppression from the upper ridge. On Saturday moisture will continue to increase and with less suppression from the upper ridge better prospects for showers and storms will occur over the Nature Coast counties during the afternoon and early evening hours similar to central and southern locations with area-wide pops in the 30 to 40 percent range expected from north to south. Above normal temperatures will continue with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast, with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s inland.
454 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes through Saturday and provide warm and dry weather.
The upper level trough will push through the Pacific Northwest into Montana, and a broad upper level ridge will build towards Northwest California starting this afternoon. The ridge will remain in place through end of next work week. There may be minor perturbations embedded in the upper level ridge, but they won't have too much impacts to the weather in the area. The lower conditions will be due to reduced ceilings and/or visibilities. An offshore high pressure ridge will strengthen the next few days tightening the pressure gradient across the coastal waters. Therefore winds and short period seas will increase the next few days as the offshore high pressure ridge strengthens.
For the early part of the overnight period, will be slowly evacuating pops from the southeastern ridge counties. Decided to increase clouds across portions of the south, as what is left of the cold front gets hung up in Northern West Virginia. Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the ridges during the afternoon. The will promote, at least, a modest increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the inclusion of pops in the ridges. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced convection. 500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through most of the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): An upper level low over Northeast Mexico is drifting north-northwest on the western periphery of an upper level high extending across Northern Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast States. Isolated showers are ongoing over the Lower Texas coastal waters early this morning however with land areas still somewhat stable showers are dissipating as they approach the coast line. As the upper low continues to drift NNW upper diffluence to increase which may result in some enhanced lift.
421 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should continue to limit moisture. The high-resolution models displayed scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater moisture and less upper ridging. Leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with the greater chance in the south section. The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.
620 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and will slowly move east of the region this weekend.
Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
but will switch from generally northerly overnight to more easterly by afternoon as the high to the north re-positions eastward. Moderate dewpoints in the mid 60s should result from the high pushing down slightly cooler and drier air into the area.
A cold front will drop very slowly south and across the area Saturday.
Given the lack of any significant mid to upper level push of this low amplitude wave, storms have been slow to move eastward within the affected region.
However, KAEX has seen less high level clouds which allowed the site to have a cooler air temperature and at time thicker fog at IFR levels. The frontal system will move back north this afternoon as a warm front as southerly flow begins. This morning's surface analysis shows that the remnants of yesterday's cold front extends along the immediate Gulf Coast. The surface boundary is forecast to lift northward through the day as high pressure begins to build into the area. Cloud cover will decrease late this afternoon as the high builds in and clear skies are expected tonight. The combination of clear skies and light to calm winds should allow for cooler temperatures and the possibility of patchy fog again Thursday morning.
139 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 An active afternoon and evening of severe weather is underway as storms have begun developing across the higher terrain of W TX and SE NM. Strong surface heating along with moist, upslope flow could lead to isolated severe storms in the higher terrain.
Benign conditions through tonight under an upper level ridge. A longwave upper level trough will push inland over the Pac NW and to the northern Rockies Thursday and Thursday night with all of the moisture staying northwest of our area.
313 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A few thunderstorm clusters should develop through early this evening, near a pre-frontal trough axis from western through north- central Kansas.
/issued 856 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017/ A short wave trough along the northern Gulf coast early this morning will continue to move slowly east across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and then into the northern Florida peninsula tonight. This feature is helping to weaken the upper level ridge that has been in place over the region the last several days and the suppression from the ridge will be slightly less across the region the remainder of today. This feature combined with daytime heating and less suppression from the upper ridge will support chances for some much needed showers (Pops in the 20 to 30 percent range) across central and southern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours as it moves across the region, with a mix of sun and clouds expected elsewhere.
Thursday: Showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to decrease in coverage as the low-level jet wanes.
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure in place at the surface and aloft will provide quiet weather in the short term with just a bit of patchy fog possible in our river valleys late tonight. Bumped highs up into the low 80s for many areas.
The low level ridge has eroded east of the Mid-Atlantic states, assaulted from its north and south by low pressure systems. Since then, the low levels remain kinked, and it appears a stationary low level trough has setup camp across the Florida Keys. The weak cyclonic curvature and moisture convergence along the low level trough has increased shower coverage surrounding the axis. The low level feature will work slowly westward tonight and Thursday.
A transitory upper ridge over the Continental Divide shifts east into the plains during the next 24 hours.
Thursday Night Through Wednesday Quite and active forecast is on tap for the western Great Lakes during the medium and long range as several low pressure systems track through the region.
At the surface, a cold front is now to the south and east of the area stretching north- south along the Eastern Seaboard into the Northern Gulf. An upper level ridge will build northeast from the Northern Gulf on Thursday with an upper level trough passing across Great lakes into the Mid-Atlantic.
We may also see some low clouds this region along with patchy areas of fog as winds will pick up a bit from the east across most of the plains during the early morning hours, and this will increase the RH over a good part of the lower elevations. Temps tonight will be in the 40s most if not all of the plains with 20s and 30s over the higher elevation's. Temps will be continue to be warm with 70s plains, although it will be 2-3F cooler than today. Breezy southeast winds should prevail across the lower elevations tomorrow, with southeasterlies in the mtns and valleys.
There is a better chance for showers Thursday as a warm front lifts north. A more active pattern is just ahead with warmer weather and periodic chances of rain and storms this weekend. A warm front will begin to move north tonight as a weak upper level system moves into the area. Otherwise, much warmer air will be just south of the area by late Thursday afternoon.
Strong 700-850 mb frontogenesis will lead to increasing coverage of showers this evening and overnight as a weak surface cyclone moves across Iowa. Kept highs in the mid 50s, but cloud cover could potentially keep highs on the cooler side of the forecast. Showers may begin to develop again as soon as late Thursday night as warm advection develops ahead of another upper level trough.
Another warm and mostly dry day is expected Thursday with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s under a strengthening upper level ridge. Some isolated convection may be able to work around the northern periphery of the ridge and affect our northern counties in southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas by afternoon, but the vast majority of the region will remain dry.
The latest data suggests that this feature will slide east and then northeast over the Plains Thursday and Thursday night, around the western periphery of the ridge aloft centered along the Gulf coast.
For this morning: A H7 warm front will lift across western into central Nebraska, clearing the forecast area by this afternoon. Based on the latest model trends, locations mainly east of highway 83 will see the greatest threat for showers and thunderstorms today, and will place the highest pops in these areas. For tonight: A cold front will be forced into central Nebraska before stalling out overnight.
An upper level short wave trof was moving through North Dakota at 730Z. This trof was associated with a coupled jet structure and providing enough lift to generate a few showers/sprinkles over northwest Minnesota. By afternoon, the next upper level short wave trof moves over Minnesota. A couple of vorticity maxima will accompany this trof along with a good shot of upper level divergence from the entrance region of an upper jet. These showers will percolate nearby through the night as a couple more embedded impulses move through the base of the upper trof. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail today and tonight. On Thursday, the upper trof begins to move off to the east accompanied by one last vort max. Upper level and surface ridging follow behind for the afternoon.
200 PM PDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A low pressure trough moving by to the north will bring cooler weather to coastal areas this afternoon and across the region Thursday along with increasing winds in the mountains and deserts today through Thursday.
250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A weakening cold front will move into the Midlands this afternoon and move south of the CSRA overnight. High pressure will be over the area this weekend.
Still anticipating temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
At the surface, weak low pressure centered over northern Nebraska with warm front southeast toward I-80. With synoptic scale subsidence in wake of the passage of PV maximum pushing into southwest MN, have a little doubt that more mesoscale lift forcing in the lower- to mid-level warm advection across areas near/east of I-29 very late afternoon into early evening will be strong enough to overcome the larger scale subsidence component. While models are fairly insistent that clouds will fully mix out by early afternoon on Thursday, am more confident of this occurrence across areas west of I-29 downstream of ridge axis, with some areas perhaps lingering into a broken ceiling state much longer toward southwest MN and northwest IA.
A low pressure system over the e pac will continue to pump moisture into the two state area overnight.
High temps should top out similar or a tad warmer than today.
Right now the low end chance pops are holding true but if coverage continues to increase. H5 ridge builds over the region through the weekend.
High pressure aloft will shift east overnight allowing a short wave to track across the western portions of the CWA.
333 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Scattered showers will continue to move inland for the rest of this afternoon into this evening as a low level trough continues to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
624 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A weak cold front in the forecast area tonight will be diffuse and just south of the area Thursday.
Temperatures are currently holding in the lower to mid 50s w/ a decent SSE flow 15 to 25 mph for many locales. Based on the expected setup/orientation of the trough. enhanced some to more central zones overnight tonight as the upper trough swings thru. Higher dewpts east and south ahead of the trough. Some lingering rw/trw activity for E/NE zones as upper trough lifts out of the area.
As the upper level trough over NM continues to move east into the overnight, chances of showers and storms will return tomorrow with the highest chances over the eastern Panhandles during the day. Latest 12Z model and numerical data continue to lift the upper level trough and the 500 hPa vort max up northeast through central Kansas by late Thursday night.
The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF consistent with the CWA/MSA under the influence of an upper ridge Today, yet with limited subsidence per 700-300mb Q-vector divergence, followed by a weak upper disturbance from the west Thursday.
129 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Morning stratus is now rapidly scouring out across Lower MI as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be northwesterly through the evening before becoming light and variable under the influence of the high. In fact, based on the satellite trends, locations toward the Ohio border will likely even start the day clear, as they are closest to the Anti-Cyclone. Main moisture axis/850-700 MB Theta-E Ridge seen sneaking into southwest Lower Michigan, and then folding over in a west-east fashion into the Northern Ohio Valley.
138 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight.
Another short wave mid/upper trough will move NE from west TX into the southern plains on Thu/Fri.
Skies will be mostly cloudy today, with highs in the mid 70s, with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
110 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move east across the area today. A warm front will develop over the midwest on Thursday.
340 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front will move southeast through the region through this evening, with cooler high pressure building in for the late week. Much warmer temperatures will return for the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Cold front stretches across the heart of the CWFA early this afternoon, with a scattered to broken cu field having popped up along and ahead of the frontal zone. Highs Thursday will be cooler, with highs around 70 northeast ranging to mainly mid 70s elsewhere except for possibly some upper 70s near the South Carolina border.
/issued 344 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017/ A very active weather pattern is expected today and tonight as a southern stream trough approaches and moves over the forecast area. More thunderstorm activity will be possible Thursday afternoon further west across the mountains and immediate adjacent plains due to strong heating along the higher terrain and upslope flow.
Storms are firing over the high plains and are expected to approach our Srn Edwards Plateau counties late this evening. Easterly surface winds beneath the upper ridge tonight should bring more pleasant overnight temps in the 60s across most if not all of the area.
/DECREASED MAX T, ADDED PATCHY DZ/ Surface analysis and blended short range guidances indicate most areas on track to have highs a few degrees cooler than from early morning projections. There is a slight chance for showers along the Rio Grande Plains for much of today as remnant of a cold front pushes back to the north and into the southwest region of south central Texas as a warm frontal boundary. Overall high temperatures for today are in the lower 70s to lower 80s range. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s across the Hill Country to mid 60s along and south of Highway 90.
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving east over the Intermountain West/Desert Southwest region early this morning. The airmass east of this trough will continue to moisten up this afternoon with low to mid 50s dewpoints in the area this afternoon.
620 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front will move southeast through the region through this evening, with cooler high pressure building in for the late week. Much warmer temperatures will return for the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Have made slight adjustments to the hourly temperature forecast to account for slightly warmer conditions. Also, have added a mention of isolated thunder as the sfc cold front edges southeastward into a slightly unstable air mass. ~WSS Cold front stretches across the heart of the CWFA late this afternoon. Highs Thursday will be cooler, with highs around 70 northeast ranging to mainly mid 70s elsewhere except for possibly some upper 70s near the South Carolina border.
At the surface, high pressure sits over northwestern SD. Upper ridge axis will shift over the northern plains tonight. As a Pac NW trough approaches the region, there will be a slight chance for some spotty showers/storms beginning Thursday night.
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 1029 mb high pressure center near NE Illinois this morning will shift northeastward through the day, allowing the approach of low pressure/upper wave moving into the northern Plains. A 1028 mb Pacific high pressure ridge was over IL and WI early this morning and bringing clear skies and light to calm winds to CWA. High pressure will drift east across lower MI and upper Ohio river valley during this afternoon. Subsidence and dry air from this high pressure system will bring ample sunshine to central/southeast IL with some passing thin cirrus clouds and fairly light ESE winds near 10 mph or less. Upper level ridge building into IL by Thu night to limit coverage of convection and not expected to be severe.
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure dominates through Thursday.
High pressure/wedge of dry air is centered across the Great Lakes this afternoon and has pretty much cleared out the cloud cover. Short wave trough and weak surface reflection will advance through the western Great Lakes region late tonight through Thursday morning. Wet bulb temps aloft will be cold enough to support some very light snow or a mix particularly into the higher terrain tonight.
146 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure dominates through Thursday.
Temperatures in the low 80s for most areas this afternoon have allowed for a fair amount of instability to develop, and isolated to scattered showers and storms have increased in coverage over the last hour.
235 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front will move southeast through the region through evening, with cooler high pressure building in for the late week. Much warmer temperatures will return for the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Cold front stretches across the heart of the CWFA early this afternoon, with a scattered to broken cu field having popped up along and ahead of the frontal zone. Highs Thursday will be cooler, with highs around 70 northeast ranging to mainly mid 70s elsewhere except for possibly some upper 70s near the South Carolina border.
In addition, 1030mb high was over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and lee side inverted trough from southeast Colorado to central Nebraska.