Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 594 DECAMETER HEIGHT CENTER OVER EAST TEXAS AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 594 DECAMETER HEIGHT CENTER OVER EAST TEXAS AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
122 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL BE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER INFLUENCE.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROF SPRAWLED OUT /NORTH-SOUTH/ ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HAVE SEEN SOME STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROF JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN NODAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /45 TO 55 KNOTS/ TO ACCOMPANY MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY WHEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS AND A DECENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /700-500HPB LEVEL WINDS/ ACCOMPANYING A LARGE CLOSED LOW UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OUT OVER ALBERTA.
High pressure remains over the area. Highs for today and Friday are expected to be in the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 100. Conditions are expected to remain hot and dry through the weekend as the upper level ridge remains in place over the area.
STILL EXPECTING THE RIDGE ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. GOOD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MEANDERING ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL HOWEVER BEGINNING ADDING SOME LOW END POPS AS RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO THE NEW WEEK.
MSAS analysis and latest observations showed the synoptic scale warm front arching along a line from just north of STJ southeast through COU and eventually UNO. as mid/upper-level moisture plume rotates around the Southern Plains ridge center.
SHEAR IS ALSO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO AGAIN THINK THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM RESIDES ON THE LOW SIDE. DID CONFINE SLIGHT POPS TO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL LIFT A MID LEVEL WAVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES MAY POTENTIALLY REACH AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO SRN ALTA. CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO FAR NWRN MT. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOWLY EWD MOVEMENT WITH ASSOCD CDFNT PUSHING INTO OUR WRN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUT AS CDFNT APPROACHES AND SOME UPPER ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY AFTN/EVE.
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather continues, as stationary upper level high pressure centers over East Texas. Highs may be a degree or two Fahrenheit warmer today, however, as 850 MB temperatures increase a degree Celsius.
A WEAK SURFACE INLAND TROF AND THE EASTWARD EDGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
134 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SO BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SO FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS LITTLE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE NORTH EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. EVEN WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S AS RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT. 41 THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE NOSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND OVER THE AREA AND THIS COULD SPUR EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON HOT TEMPERATURES.
131 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
316 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
111 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLEAR AND CALM THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IN A MUGGY AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. RELATIVELY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-6 TO -7C) SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR HAIL/SEVERE STORMS ON THE LOW SIDE. A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUT EXTENDING TO NORTH FL AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS LARGE UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT HAS SURGED INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT AND IS APPROACHING GREAT FALLS AS OF 240 PM MDT. TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS THE UPPER SHIFTS EAST.
THEY ARE OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POP'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.
THE BACKING FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO PUSHING A SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS. THEN CONDITIONS TURN WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
331 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. A PSEUDO COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR W/SW AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE.
MAIN STORY IS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW (AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND).
317 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 A COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
311 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLEAR AND CALM THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TONIGHT WHICH HAS ALL OF THE EXCITING WEATHER OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS TROUGHS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. WE DO REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.
1105 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED FROM FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LESS AND NAM MODEL DATA ESSENTIALLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER VALLEYS TOWARD GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAGLE OR GUNNISON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.
AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RIDGES SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT TRIGGERED A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING LINE OF STORMS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE YESTERDAY IS NOW ALIGNED MORE MERIDIONALLY. BUT VERY LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING CONSIDERING THE NEARBY UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTER SHOULD CAUSE MOST CONVECTION TO DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
STILL A FEW TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN/LA GARITA MOUNTAINS. LARGE T/TD SPREADS SUGGEST ANY STORMS WILL DIE QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT DEEPER MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER MAX TEMPS MANY LOCATIONS. AND SOME UPPER 90S WILL REAPPEAR OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY EAST OF PUEBLO.
WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THIS PRECIP GIVEN THE HEIGHT RISES OVER CENTRAL IOWA DURING THIS TIME BEHIND TODAY'S DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE LOW WILL SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF WI LATER TONIGHT WILL HELP TO DRAW THE WARMER AND AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO SRN WI.
236 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR STARTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST NUMBERS THIS SUMMER SEASON TO DATE. UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITIONING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
WHILE THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00 UTC FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS.
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH CENTRAL KS INTO THE TX BIG BEND. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
215 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR STARTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. THE DAMP GROUND SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BRAKES ON THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWLANDS IN THE 90 DEGREE RANGE TO LOW 90S.
338 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLEAR AND CALM THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLD FRONT HAS SET UP SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF A DRY FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE INITIALLY WILL BE UNDER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST.
345 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 RAIN CHANCES RELATIVELY LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AIR SETTLING OVER THE STATE AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
333 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2015 (Tonight and Friday) The subtropical ridge has taken up residence over the region, maintaining hot and dry conditions throughout West Central TX. The center of the anticyclone is currently located over east TX and may slide slightly east on Friday, but we'll continue to see strong subsidence throughout the mid/upper levels, resulting in drying/warming aloft. Expect temperatures tonight to drop into the lower 70s with Friday afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
457 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARM MOIST AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE, AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NE PACIFIC ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL LOW WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS.
1206 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ THIS MORNING STARTED OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED AWAY FROM THE TN VALLEY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX/AR/LA. TODAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. WE COULD ENTRAIN ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM DEEP MIXING OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 60S FOR TODAY.
WARM CORE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND AS A RESULT DEEPENING LOW AT THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MARINE AIR AND THE PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR, DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING. MODELS DO NOW AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL DETACH FROM THE TROUGH AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST OVER CA/NV. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THIS LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. A LEE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE DENVER METRO WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN SOME TODAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL RIDGE CREEPING BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. COULD SEE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI/SAT. ALSO THINK THAT THE FRONTS ARRIVAL WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL (COOLER) TEMPS MOVING BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
206 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLEAR AND CALM THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER.
303 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 12Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-UPPER RIDGE WITH A DISTINCT MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA.
TO THE NORTH A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER A LITTLE AFTER 9 AM AND WILL BE INTO CUT BANK BEFORE NOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY IN LINE WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BLANK /ISSUED 450 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015/ A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MORE THROUGH CUT BANK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE EVENING. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF TILTS NEGATIVELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF SPLITTING.
617 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND PULL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
245 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL /H7-H5/ TROF. AND WILL PROVIDE SOME INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF THERE AND FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE WL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MSTR/INSTABILITY AND INFERRED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE.
FRIDAY IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED BY MID AND UPPER TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE SOME TO AN AVERAGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ALL MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE NEXT WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING FARTHER WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
407 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PENN FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OTTAWA ONTARIO WILL COMBINE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND NEAR RECORD LOW PWATS FOR MID SUMMER TO BRING NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AZURE BLUE SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S /OR 5-10F WARMER THAN THU MORNING/. TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE DAY THANKS TO THE VERY LIGHT SRLY WIND.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NICE BREAK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR OUR WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
255 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALBERTA. WEAK RIDGING PASSES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TO BRING A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD. UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN BRINGING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION. ONLY AREA WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE NORTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Tonight's air mass will be about 3-5 degrees Celcius cooler than last night's air mass, resulting in cooler temperatures tonight than last night.
An intense summertime high pressure system will strengthen over the nation's midsection, causing heat indices to exceed 100 degrees on a daily basis. We decided to upgrade areas within the lower elevations of the Osage River Valley to an Excessive Heat Warning. No precipitation is expected through tonight, with lows only falling into the low to mid 70s.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ The upper level ridge will continue to build north through the Western Plains tonight then expand east through Iowa Tuesday and Tuesday night. The warmer air will lift into Iowa Tuesday night with thunderstorms possibly lingering over Northeast Iowa. Increasing dewpoints Tuesday night will help hold lows in the low to mid 70s and will be the transition to the much warmer and more humid conditions for mid to late week.
High pressure over the southern plains with an upper level trough settling into the Pacific Northwest will leave the Great Basin under a southwest flow through much of the week, with deep moisture over southern and eastern Utah.
Temperatures are in the upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s producing heat index values as high as upper 90s already.
A low pressure system will remain off the coast through Tuesday.
I went lower than the model consensus blend for min temps tonight, in the lower to mid 60s. There is no temperature advection going on tonight and plenty of opportunity for strong radiational cooling with weak flow in the lowest 5000 feet. The lake breeze will develop a little earlier than today, so expect the lakeshore to be just a bit cooler.
Made some adjustments to the overnight period as models/SPC are highlighting our eastern CWA for some possible thunder toward Tuesday morning as a trough works through the region.