Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYS EAST OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
A WEAK ALMOST STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF IN ABOUT 24 HOURS ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT 300 AM ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AN UPPER LOW WAS DISTINCTLY EVIDENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO. TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. OVERSPREADING A COOLER LESS UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIODS.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TOMORROW AS PART OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. OWING TO COOLER TEMPS.
MAV/MET BOTH LOOK REASONABLE WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 218 PM CDT UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BUT DEAMPLIFY THRU TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. THE PRIMARY TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH WEAK WAVES EJECTING AHEAD OF THE LOW. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH EAST AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVE TOWARDS US. THE PACIFIC NW LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH LEAVING US IN A WEAK RIDGE. HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER/THROUGH THE RIDGE CONTINUING OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND A TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST. WITH ASSOCIATED STATIONARY/WARM FRONT JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD. ALTHOUGH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAVE A 10-DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
Isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across the higher elevations of southeast New Mexico. In the extended, the west coast trough looks to stay on the west coast with the lastest model runs and the upper ridge may stick around just a little longer. We will have to monitor that to see if that trough can dislodge the upper ridge over us. If the ridge holds on, we can expect more of the same for the near future with above normal temperatures and lower rain chances.
425 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MUCH COOLER NORTH OF FRONT TODAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
414 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ONE MORE DRY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALOFT UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING EASTERN HALF OF U. UPPER LOW CRAWLS EASTWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 DURING THE DAY.
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT GENERAL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND EXTENT. A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ON WED THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AS A WK CDFNT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES WITH WK SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SEWD ACROSS OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO LEAVE KFWA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
At the surface a weak area of low pressure will move through the Lake Cumberland region today. With less precipitation and cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures will be somewhat warmer, despite the continued northerly winds. Highs look to be in the lower to mid 70s.
226 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY PROVIDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A RETURN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
456 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
UPPER TROF IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF WITH PWATS OF 1. 6 IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHERE DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT IN. AND SFC CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/TSTORM IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH 10-15 MPH COMMON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. AROUND 90 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND MID 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.
317 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015 An upper level ridge will be the main weather feature through the upcoming week, and will result in above normal temperatures and only minimal rain chances throughout. The said ridge is centered over northern Mexico, but will gradually spread eastward as another upper trough drops south along the west coast. The flow aloft will be favorable for convection to move off the higher terrain and spread into the southeast New Mexico Plains tonight.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST DRIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS INTO A LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD EASES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. REACHING FROM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH/LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUE. KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN ODDS IN THE INTERIOR.
524 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
WERE IT WAS CLEAR BUT WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER THE STRATUS. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 60S AND A FEW POCKETS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA NEAR 70 F. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL FALL QUITE A BIT FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NE SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS STAYS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS EARLY ON AS A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING GREAT LAKES RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
252 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY.
551 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY. BUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN PA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG THE COAST TUE. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES. A HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NRLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID70S.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING COOL WEATHER THIS WEEK.
643 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
Main axis for activity looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies. This will keep the lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will build over eastern Kansas overnight. A cold front looks to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these periods with large instability along it.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES GETTING PULLED IN WITH THE TROUGH. THERE IS A WEAK TROF MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER AS IT PASSES. THE WEAK TROF WILL LOWER HGTS SO SOME INLAND COOLING.
649 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE HIGHER AXIS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
350 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015 Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEPENDED ON CONVECTION CHANCES. AND ALSO ANY POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND CENTER WAS OVER THE REGION WITH THE LOW NEAR SE MO TO NE AR. AND MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE IT WOULD BE EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OUT OF AR. WHILE MODERATELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO AR.
343 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE PROCESS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FURTHER FLATTEN THE RIDGE BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT OR ELIMINATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
1005 PM PDT Sun May 31 2015 Cooler weather returns during the early part of the week along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains. Slightly warmer temperatures will be possible by the end of the week. Plentiful high-clouds and cooler temperatures have spread across the interior of NorCal today as the trough just offshore approaches. Weak trough lingers over the area into mid-week, but shower chances are expected to retreat to far northern California by Tuesday, with just a slight chance of an isolated late day shower or thunderstorm near Mt.
347 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN SD NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECTING STORM INITIATION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR SOME FORM OF AN MCS TO MARCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. A WARM SWLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROF MOVING INTO THE PACNW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF KEPT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO NWRN UT AS THE PACNW TROF LIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU OVER THE MTNS AND NORTH AS A TROF DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RIDGING INTO TEXAS. DRIER AIR HAD FILTERED INTO MOST OF THE REGION WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTH.
427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN PA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG THE COAST TUE. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES. A HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NRLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID70S.
A BROADER SHOWER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN TO THE COAST. LINGER UPPER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED STRIKES INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES AS STRONG VORT LOBES SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
WHERE IT WAS CLEAR BUT WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER THE STRATUS. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 60S AND A FEW POCKETS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA NEAR 70 F. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL FALL QUITE A BIT FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NE SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS STAYS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS EARLY ON AS A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING GREAT LAKES RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
A WEAK 250/500 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT SUNRISE WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS MAINLY NEUTRAL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH AT 700 MB AND BELOW. EXPECT THE THIN CIRRUS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.
920 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 35 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0.
547 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL OREGON AT 09Z MOVING STEADILY EAST. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
INSTABLITY IN THE UPPER COLD AIR MASS IS BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COAST BEFORE THE STORMS DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE OVER THE COOLER LAND MASS. BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE ECMWF ARE INDICATING A DEEP CLOSED LOW SWINGING UP FROM THE SW ONTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM KICKS UP PRECIP GAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING IN THE COLDER AIR MASS.
633 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
818 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AFTER A COOL START EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE SOME DEEPER SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WITH THIS COLD FRONT MOVING IN WILL BE TOUGH TO RISE TOO MUCH THERE.
625 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING AS OF NOW. WITH TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. FRIES SHARP WARM UP EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MONDAY. WARM FRONT FEATURE SEEN ON ALONG THE 295-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ROUNDS THE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LATEST COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENTLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. THE STORM DOOR REMAINS OPEN AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS VULNERABLE TO SHORT WAVE EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH. AND THE TROUGH ITSELF WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE. EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED MOIST AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF -DZ/-RA. A PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
HEIGHT RISES WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AS A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AT 2 AM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN OUR COLD SPOTS. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. THIS COMBO WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING THE BULK OF ITS FORCING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY NORTHEAST. WHICH WHILE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER COLD AIR MASS IS BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COAST BEFORE THE STORMS DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE OVER THE COOLER LAND MASS. BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE ECMWF ARE INDICATING A DEEP CLOSED LOW SWINGING UP FROM THE SW ONTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM KICKS UP PRECIP AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING IN THE COLDER AIR MASS.
946 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE CWA.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer today especially across western areas where compressional warming will be stronger. More widespread fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow especially across the higher elevations. We then turn our attention to a large upper trough expected to dig south along the West Coast late Monday. Height falls associated with this trough will pull the dryline back west Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the retreating dryline after sunset Monday, mainly affecting the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Basin. Models then take the upper low south to near Mexico City by midweek.