Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
551 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure expected to extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore into the Atlantic.
Another slight chance for storms may then again be possible towards midnight along the cold front as enhanced upper level dynamics develop near the left exit region of an upper level jet. On Wednesday the surface cold front is forecast to be located from northwestern Oklahoma to south central Kansas.
413 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a trough over the wrn CONUS with a mid/upper level low over nw Wyoming and downstream rdiging into the upper MS valley. At the surface, High pressure extended from nrn ontario, west of James bay, into the nrn Great Lakes with the main frontal boundary well to the south over nrn IL. Today, as the mid level low edges to the ne and low pressure strengthens over SD, waa will strengthen from WI into Upper Michigan.
351 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure expected to extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore into the Atlantic.
330 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The ridge aloft continues over the forecast area with a weak short wave stalled over the northern Gulf. The most likely areas of convection remain the higher elevations and central zones.
203 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low centered over Montana. Extending southeast and south from it was a cold front with a dry line just east of the front. Tonight the cold front and dry line will be just east of the Tri- State Area in the early evening. As the dry line is retreating an upper level short wave trough will deepen over it. This deepening trough should cause storm development just east of Gove, Graham and Norton counties where the CINH will be lower. Have left a mention of tornadoes out of the HWO due to the low confidence to the storms becoming surface based even if they do form. Wednesday will be dry due to a dry environment in place behind the cold front from today.
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Ridge over us showing signs of losing its cap, as cumulus field grows early this afternoon.
There could be a small chance of very light or patchy drizzle with the low clouds in the morning but impact and coverage will be low and left out of the official forecast. Stronger mid- and low- level ridging will occur tomorrow and coupled with a stronger capping inversion - this will act to limit shower coverage with only very isolated activity across the coastal plains.
/15/ Prior discussion below: Today: The region remains under the influence of a weak mid level ridge extending from TX northeast across north MS and into TN. Tonight: Convection will wind down in the early evening as temperatures cool into the low to mid 70s.
could see near freezing temperatures Southern CO will remain on the windy and dry southern side of the upper low today which will lift northeastward across the northern U. Watching the southward progression of a cold front approaching the Palmer Divide early this morning. Cooler temperatures can be expected today in spite of the deep mixing as upper level temps fall off behind the upper trof axis. Its certainly possible, though model blends keep temperatures just above freezing.
/issued 955 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ The synoptic setup for today remains very similar to yesterday, with abundant column moisture in place and the Atlantic ridge axis centered to our north. High pressure will remain over the region through the end of the week, with generally east to southeast winds remaining in place.
Latest satellite imagery is showing the center of the closed low centered over central Montana. As this low continues to move east, precipitation will continue to decrease over southwest Montana and west central Montana this afternoon and evening. 7 inches of rain will be possible for the higher terrain of Glacier park through tonight.
High pressure will remain to the East of the region this period.
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Ridging over the area continuing to break down ahead of trough currently centered north of the four corners region.
1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Seasonable summer time conditions will again prevail across the region today as an upper level ridge axis transitions to the east. A weakening front will approach from the northwest as an upper level trough lifts northeast across the northern tier of the U.
the 500mb ridge across north central Mexico is providing subsidence across western portions of the state. Northeast flow aloft across the Gulf of Mexico will bring some moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the lower TX coast through Wed night.
144 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Models remain a little over-saturated with regard to daily convection, but do realize the heat/humidity potential capped underneat a dome of high pressure that extends across the Tennessee river valley and ridges into the heart of the PAH FA. Radar mosaic shows rimfire heat of day convection just where heights fall off ridge, notwithstanding the isolated updrafts that have managed to break through. probably less than modeled but maybe slightly more than the previous days, given the ridge mutes somewhat with some height fall energy approaching from the north/west, courtesy of the primary upper trof making way into the Great Lakes.
Mostly sunny Wednesday and 7 to 10 degrees warmer than today under zonal flow aloft.
The large upper trough over the Deep South will finally swing northeastward away from the area later this evening and overnight. Lows cooler than recent and generally in the L60s, except M-U60s along the immediate Treasure Coast, and cannot rule out some U50s northward across north Lake/inland Volusia counties.
Southerly winds will become reestablished today with high pressure advancing east of the area. /issued 335 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ Weather map depicts upper low centered over the mid MS River valley this morning with northwesterly flow situated across the area. Temperatures away from the coast are in the low to mid 50s with temperature along the coast in the 60s.
Windy and relatively cooler conditions are forecast across northern Arizona from Thursday through Friday. Lighter winds and a warming trend are in the cards for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. This is due to a low pressure trough moving across the Northern Rockies. As the ridge to the southeast and the low pressure trough to the distant north move off to the east, the pressure gradient will weaken as will winds aloft.
Cold frontal passage has brought drier and cooler air into the region. Clouds behind frontal boundary will shift se this afternoon as upper trough axis moves across se Ga/ne Fl. Ceilings between 4 and 8 kft this morning behind cold front will shift se of the area this afternoon.
916 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 A cold front will push east of the Midlands and CSRA this morning. The upper level low will cross the region today bringing another chance of showers to the area.
947 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with another area of low pressure. In line with SPC outlook, any isolated severe risk will be mainly limited to areas along the ridges, along the edge of more favorable but fading deep level shear. Another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift E of the area, with increasing POPs for showers.
The highest chances for rain will favor upper East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia which will be closest to the center of the low (located over eastern Kentucky). The clouds and rain will keep high temperatures on the cool side and only in the low to mid 60s. Rain showers should taper off by the early afternoon there as well -- allowing highs to reach the low to mid 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 55 85 65 / 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 55 81 65 / 50 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 55 84 65 / 50 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 52 79 59 / 90 30 10 20.
930 AM PDT Thu May 25 2017 The low will push the marine layer.
750 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with another area of low pressure. Ascent and deep layer moisture ahead of approaching low pressure should maintain the showers across the area this morning. The ascent/moisture is progged to shift N of the area by this afternoon as the low drifts across OH to Wrn PA. Scattered showers are expected through the rest of the day however with the close proximity of the low. Another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift E of the area, with increasing POPs for showers.
Weak upper trough will strengthen as a short wave in eastern Washington moves south into the northern portion of our forecast area this afternoon. Cool upper trough over our area currently extends from a low in Saskatchewan. Trough will be reinforced later today by a short wave trough moving south from BC. An upper low will form in central Idaho tonight, then weaken Friday as it moves east into Wyoming. Cyclonic flow around the low will maintain showers through Friday especially in the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin. Oregon will dry out Friday as big coastal upper ridge begins to come inland.
For tonight: Lee side low pressure over the High Plains region will move into western OK late tonight.
608 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 WV imagery this morning showing revealing a well amplified upper ridge building into the nrn/cntrl Plains with a stout vort max in southwestern Canada moving along the U. Both HRRR/RAP13 suggest a series of impulses/cold pockets associated with the northern tier upper low will contribute to popping off a few showers mainly this afternoon and evening as steepening mid level lapse rates envelop the region.
Upper closed low continues to churn overhead and provide enough lift for some isolated showers this morning. Models have some backside showers moving into the northeast zones this morning as the upper low moves to the northeast.
Forecast is on track this morning with warmer and breezy conditions by afternoon.
605 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Relative high pressure col moving over the area currently is resulting in light winds and clear skies. For Friday, a weak boundary will be in the area as weak high pressure builds into the area from the north.
1107 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Early visible photographs show skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 80s along with uncomfortable dewpoint readings in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered showers from near the Lower Keys westward to beyond Dry Tortugas, and northward into the outer waters of Mainland Monroe. With the unusually deep mid and upper level trough extending into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula lifting northeastward, large scale ascent will become neutral.
640 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Upper ridging has been building eastward into the Mississippi Valley overnight with deep subsidence through the atmosphere. After any fog dissipates this morning, a very pleasant day is expected with light winds as the ridge axis slides east.
/Issued 509 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017/ Cold front has finally pushed east of the CWFA early this morning. However, a large upper low and trough will continue across the eastern third of the country through today. Mid level energy rounding the base of the trough will add just enough lift, to produce some isold/sct shra today. Shra coverage is expected to decrease through the day as the upper low and trough pull off to the east. ecmwf centers a weaker ridge over the northern gulf while the gfs and sref slightly stronger. All of the models put the TN Valley and north GA in a slightly diffluent flow atop the ridge centered over the north central gulf.
625 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 The deep upper level trough that has been driving the weather for the Midwest over the last several days is still over the Eastern Ohio River Valley. With the low continuing to drift eastward.
1053 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Upper low over Ohio continues to shift slowly eastward this morning: however, its associated cloud cover lingers across much of the KILX CWA. to the lower to middle 70s across the Illinois River Valley where skies are already mostly sunny. The deep upper level trough that has been driving the weather for the Midwest over the last several days is still over the Eastern Ohio River Valley. With the low continuing to drift eastward.
919 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. An upper low pressure system will move east from the Ohio Valley, east across WV through tonight. Upper level low will finally be well off to our northeast by Friday morning. Still could see some showers across the mountains until ridging builds in later in the day. Brief ridging will give way to more unsettled weather for the holiday weekend.
A broad upper level trough will bring near to below normal high temperatures through the rest of the work week. Inland temperatures will fall another 5 to 10 degrees today as a broad upper trough slides over the Pacific Northwest. This trough axis will lie across northern California today and tomorrow which will prolong near to slightly below normal temperatures. Looking into the weekend, high pressure will build in behind the upper trough as it tracks to the east.
Fort Ord profiler continues to show a somewhat deep marine layer, which in combination with the lower level orientation of the winds, will continue to bring some clouds into the area ending by early afternoon. Upper trough axis now stretching across northern California has deepened the marine layer to near 3000 feet this morning.
An upper level trough across the Pacific northwest and south central Canada will dig southeast across the northern high plains and central Rockies. A lead upper level trough across southwest CO will lift out into the central plains ahead of the main trough axis this digging southeast across the central Rockies this evening.
These are slowly lifting northeast and some of the high resolution models are showing them lifting into southern Canada by noon. Additionally small chances for a few light showers will persist through the day and evening as these disturbances eject out ahead of the main system, a strong stacked surface/upper low in southern Saskatchewan.
722 AM PDT Thu May 25 2017 Cooler weather is in the forecast through Friday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the region. The trough may create scattered light showers over and west of the mountains late tonight through early Friday morning. High pressure aloft will rebuild over the West this holiday weekend for warmer weather and a shallower marine layer.
718 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 A broad area of low pressure from the Ohio Valley through the mid Atlantic coast will slowly lift northeast today through tonight. Low pressure will continue northeast into the maritimes Friday through Friday night.
208 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Large scale ridge extents from the southwest US, across the Central High Plains, and into the southern Mississippi River Valley. A plume of monsoonal moisture is shown on WV imagery to be rotating through the western extent of this ridge and into the Central Rockies. Wednesday: Ridge shifts just a little further north and we should see subsidence in place and a less favorable pattern for possible afternoon thunderstorm development. High pressure aloft is expected to move east over the plains while a a short wave trough starts to move in behind the ridge.
Given the very moist air mass in place, it will not take much heating for thunderstorm initiation to occur over the higher terrain, likely by early afternoon. As is typically the case, the big question is if any organized thunderstorm activity can sustain itself into the lower deserts. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential will be the main threats, but strong to locally damaging winds remain a possibility across the lower deserts this evening. Otherwise, the large-scale pattern will remain fairly stagnant, with the midlevel anticyclone centered near the Southern Plains, and a weak upper low over northwest Mexico.
Onshore flow and a Delta breeze are bringing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler for most of the area, and 15 to 18 degrees cooler for the Delta.
The local area will remain on the southwestern periphery of a relatively deep ridge extending across the state from the western Atlantic.
Back of the upper wave and an ill defined surface trof are helping to trigger a few convective showers with ioslated thunder over the SE zones this afternoon. Old surface boundary is still hanging around and helping to pool some low level moisture so a shower cannot be ruled out, mainly along and south of I-84 and perhaps in the higher terrain of the Catskills and Poconos.
331 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Short term regime marked by a midlevel ridge building in from the NW and a marginally unstable environment with little forcing at work other than the typical diurnal orographic enhancement in the NE mtns, weak lee trough in the east, and a lingering stationary boundary near the southern tier. Wednesday has little change to the environment from today other than perhaps a more diffuse southern boundary and some greater warming of the midlevels per the ridge influence, so have limited pops a bit more from today with just low end chance for south central GA and slight pops farther north but kept the NW dry.
The expanding ridge will keep flight operations vfr through the forecast period.
418 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 This afternoon a large and elongated upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over Oklahoma and reached to the Tennessee Valley to the East and to the Four Corners Region to the West. More scattered shower and thunderstorm development was over the lower parts of East Texas across Lower Northwest and North Central Louisiana in association with available moisture, afternoon heating, and a weak shear axis just inland of the Gulf Coast.
Delay in convection this afternoon due to slightly drier and cooler air across the area. A mid/upper low will move southeast across eastern North Carolina by late in the day with the trough axis across northeast Fl and extreme southeast Ga. Slightly drier and more stable mid level will move in on the back side of the low resulting in lower coverage of storms across southeast Ga. Storms will also be enhanced by mid level impulses that will be rotating around the upper low. weak upper low over eastern NC shifts slowly southward.
Across the region temperatures are generally within a degree or two from the readings yesterday though right along the coast they are trending warmer by three to six degrees. This is ahead of the monsoonal moisture that is also shifting westward as the upper high pressure stretches back toward the four corners region. A few degrees cooler in some locations and a few degrees warmer elsewhere but the overall trend will be static through the end of the week. The increase moisture in the air will make conditions less comfortable though and it may feel warmer to some especially those with outdoor activities. There will be a weak eddy toward morning and that should keep the low clouds pushed up against Santa Barbara County into tomorrow afternoon.
The latest surface analysis has a cold front into northern Nebraska. The low level jet is forecast to develop tonight over central Nebrasaka, however the NAM is still dry with this due to the warm mid level temperatures. Due to the low confidence. Cooler weather is still forecast to push into the forecast area this weekend as a front pushes south into the forecast area.
245 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 An upper level ridge will be over the region for the next few days.
There is a weak trough expected Fri that, before it gets here, could push some unstable air into the southeast quadrant of the forecast area and generate some thunderstorms Thu and Thu night. upper level ridge actually strengthens and has its axis to the west of Idaho until Sun night. On Sun night, an upper level low enters California and shifts the air flow to southwest by Mon.
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region. Highs on Wednesday should be a degree or so warmer than what we see this afternoon. Slightly drier dew points (due to mixing effects) will keep heat indices slightly cooler elsewhere across the Ozarks. The summertime ridge will continue to expand over the region to end the week.
/Issued 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Upper ridge firmly in place over the central and southern plains. Slightly drier air in place and a little less cloud cover should result in afternoon max temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday across much of the region.
1247 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The compact upper low that was responsible for the ongoing thunderstorms will continue to weaken and move eastward this morning, allowing thunderstorms to gradually exit the area by around 15Z. This afternoon, high temperatures will range from the low 90s to around 100 degrees. the latest guidance is actually a couple degrees cooler than previous forecast, which does create some uncertainty on whether we actually will reach heat advisory criteria today. That said, evaporation from last night's rain may push dewpoints a few degrees higher, which would still result in heat index values in the low 100s.
547 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region. Highs on Wednesday should be a degree or so warmer than what we see this afternoon. Slightly drier dew points (due to mixing effects) will keep heat indices slightly cooler elsewhere across the Ozarks. The summertime ridge will continue to expand over the region to end the week.
254 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Hot temperatures will prevail over the Midsouth through late week, as a broad 594dm 500mb height ridge builds into the Midsouth from southern plains.
139 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
A massive ridge currently over the middle part of the nation will continue to gradually edge its way into the Southern Appalachian Region. The ridge should be able to suppress convection over most of the forecast area. There may be just enough lift to produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm over some of the higher terrain on the Cumberland Plateau, Southwest Virginia, and the mountains along the North Carolina border.
1157 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Current surface map shows cold front across south central/southwest South Dakota, with high pressure building into the northern plains. High pressure shifts into the eastern Dakotas. With cooler northeast to east low level flow, highs will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday. Warm front lifts back into western South Dakota Wednesday with weak low across southwest South Dakota. Area will remain under flat upper ridge through the end of the week with above average temperatures.
323 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Mid and upper level ridging will gradually build across the area through the end of the week which will result in a decrease in convective coverage. However, even with the drying that accompanies the ridge, there should be enough moisture in place to continue seeing isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon.
1156 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 In general, less coverage of showers/thunderstorms can be expected today as the surface cold front pushes south into northern CO. Southern plains ridging is expected to shift east on Wednesday, likely promoting a good surge of monsoon moisture across southeast WY and western NE.