Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, we have a warm front lifting north of the area this afternoon with an upper level low off to the west over IA and broad, difluent flow over IL. The ILX 18Z sounding showed a strong cap still in place, but that cap eroding and initiation is starting to take place across the area ahead of the cold front. Winds have been breezy from the south today and expect them to stay up tonight, with the cold front pushing through the area and into IN this evening. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow with increasing clouds and highs mostly in the 60s. On Sunday night, the upper low will be to the north moving through northern MI, with weak ridging approaching from the west.
115 PM PDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Low pressure moving over Nevada will ramp up our onshore flow this evening, trigger a coastal eddy, and bring more clouds and cooler weather on Sunday.
As an approaching weakening cold front moves towards the area on Sunday, the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast. The best chances will remain east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers Tomorrow across interior locations, with a the highest chances of precipitation being around 30%. Overall, tomorrow will be slightly warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s areawide.
Early afternoon analysis showed the closed low responsible for our recent impactful weather spinning over northwest IA/southwest MN. The low will continue to push northeast this evening and overnight, with most associated precip expected to exit to the northeast by 8-9 PM or so, though can't rule out a few stray lingering showers overnight given cyclonic flow and a small bit of instability in the cloud layer per model soundings. By the afternoon, surface ridging will slide in and lead to subsiding winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Gulf moisture continues to pool in advance of a cold front over Central Texas keeping our skies mostly cloudy.
Within this regime, terrain effects could allow for isolated/widely scattered deep convection (primarily showers) to develop over the high terrain, warranting 20- 30 PoPs in those areas. Upper level ridging breaks down and shifts east Sun as a strong low pressure system swings a cold front toward the FA. On Mon, the front pushes southeast while upper heights rise and a ridge builds atop the FA.
337 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure sets in overhead tonight allowing winds to calm down and temperatures to moderate through Sunday night.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified ridging across the Great Lakes continues this afternoon with the ridge axis having crossed northern Michigan this morning. This ridging is sandwiched between two cutoff upper lows - - one off the east coast and another over the central plains. Gusty southeast winds remain in place across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight as the pressure gradient continues to tighten in advance of aforementioned upstream low pressure. Showery and Turning Cooler.
1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 The main feature impacting weather across the area today is the area of low pressure continuing east northeast into Iowa today and toward the Great Lakes Sunday. Wrap around moisture on the backside of this low is producing beneficial rainfall to much of the outlook area this morning.
A cold front has moved south of the forecast area this afternoon, with breezy north winds and drier air in its wake. An upper low will move eastward into the Four Corners area by Sunday afternoon, as a dryline takes shape over far west Texas.
An occluding front and associated moisture band is forecast to advance across the TN Valley ahead of a short wave rotating around and upper low over the Great Lakes.
204 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warm front today. Cold front Sunday with strong to severe storms possible. A band of showers associated with a warm front will continue over portions of the area this afternoon. Another band of showers with some thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight into Sunday in advance of a cold front. With a freezing level in the 10000 to 11000 ft range, some hail is possible along with downburst winds.
High pressure is moving east with the high pressure ridge axis just over the ID/WY border. Light showers are starting to move into our extreme western areas ahead of an upper level low, which is starting to move inland onto the WA/OR coast. Models continue to show this low to drop Southeast moving over central NV and UT tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Our southwest Albion mountains will get around 3 inches of snow and up to around 6 to 7 inches at the highest levels. 50, especially for mountains in our southwest and southeast areas, due to the upper level low being south of us.
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area for the next several days, with SE flow turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries.
Upper-level high pressure ridging persists over the region this afternoon, which brought pleasant weather to the area with light winds and sunny skies.
138 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Today-Tonight: A mid-latitude cyclone -- centered just south of Yankton, SD (minimum SLP ~995 mb) at 08Z this morning -- will mature (at ~990 mb) invof Sioux City, SD by 12-15Z as a robust upper level wave amplifies over the Central Plains. The ensuing vertically stacked cyclone will gradually fill/weaken as it progresses slowly northeast toward the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes tonight. While the high wind potential will conclude by noon. An associated surface cyclone will develop in the lee of the Rockies (southeast CO, in this case) late Sun aft/eve. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient begins to tighten on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone in southeast CO. Low-level convergence invof the strengthening cyclone may aid in the development of scattered surface-based convection in eastern CO around peak heating (22-00Z Mon).
304 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Wind gusts to 60 mph from the northwest will continue to be possible from the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low pressure system. Trends point toward a possible early cancellation of the High Wind Warning, perhaps near mid-evening if trends continue.
Slight troughing will be over the region tomorrow morning with nearly zonal flow in the afternoon. At the surface, a strong low is moving through MN/WI and a cold front will move through the Ohio Valley tomorrow. Around and shortly before sunrise, heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to move into the region from the west ahead of the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on for most of the day before moving out in the evening as the cold front moves through. Instability will be moderate with dew points in the lower 60s stretching up the TN Valley. The negatively tilted trough will be north near IN/OH.
Early afternoon analysis showed the closed low responsible for our recent impactful weather spinning over northwest IA/southwest MN. The low will continue to push northeast this evening and overnight, with most associated precip expected to exit to the northeast by 8-9 PM or so, though can't rule out a few stray lingering showers overnight given cyclonic flow and a small bit of instability in the cloud layer per model soundings.
With abundant sunshine available, temperatures have been able to climb into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure currently centered along the Carolina Coast will continue to pump in dewpoints in the upper 60s through tomorrow evening, then will shift farther east and lose the source of these more comfortable dewpoints.
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warmer temperatures can be expected with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a warm front crossing in the morning followed by a cold front late afternoon / early eve. A few strong storms are possible with model progged moderate shear, instability, and dry mid level air enhancing the wind gust and large hail potential ahead of the cold front. The setup featuring a closed low aloft and a jet streak rounding the trough into the OH Valley will bring divergence aloft to the region. This, combined with decent PVA into the region will lead to frontogenesis as the surface cold front strengthens.
243 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Sioux City this morning in an embedded trough in the Missouri River Valley. The closed low will slowly head northeast into the upper Great Lakes region tonight into Sunday. Dry air at the low levels is stubbornly yielding to the pcpn shield approaching from the south and moving due north and made some adjustments to the pops this afternoon. I suspect it could get warmer and drier much quicker then this forecast reflects. Also, with the low approaching, expect gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph across the entire forecast area. Some gusts in some of the higher terrain in the west could approach 40mph.
A Pacific cold front will cross the area today, with widespread showers, periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, and areas of mountain obscuration. An upper level trough will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon in central and southwest Idaho, mainly east of KMYL and KBOI, and east and south of KMUO, with snow levels 4k-5k feet MSL.
833 AM PDT Sat Apr 30 2022 After a fair and warm day to round out the month of April, onshore flow and a coastal eddy will bring cooler weather and more clouds on Sunday, along with stronger and gusty winds over the mountains and deserts, beginning this afternoon.
301 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A strong low pressure system was spinning over NW IA today with a warm front extending SE across the CWA roughly from CID to Galesburg as of 2 PM. Tonight and Sunday, shower and storm chances will be quickly ending or will have ended by early this evening as the warm front lifts NE through the NE CWA and a cold front quickly surges into the area from the SW. Some low clouds will be found spinning around the low as it tracks NE into northern WI by midday Sunday.
200 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A front will waver across southern NC through tonight, then retreat north into VA on Sunday as a warm front.
1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 (Today and tonight) At this hour, a cold front is pushing southward through west central Texas, thanks to a strong low pressure system over the central Plains. Despite the cold front bringing in northeast winds around 10 MPH, high temperatures will still reach the mid to upper 80s for most areas. As high pressure moves across north Texas this evening, winds should decrease to around 5 MPH and shift easterly. Overnight lows will be mild once again, generally in the low to mid 60s.
240 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Water vapor imagery showing an upper ridge axis shifting into the forecast area this afternoon. Those showers should decrease late this afternoon and very early this evening as the ridge axis pushes east. Water vapor imagery also showed our next weather system, in the form of a fairly deep upper low, over the Pacific Northwest. The low will be weakening as it encounters the upper ridge over us today, so not expected a lot of rainfall over the west, but some locations could pick up another one to two tenths through the day. 850mb temperatures stay above freezing, so expecting mainly rain, with some wet snow above 6500 feet. Warmer temperatures (in the mid 50s) expected elsewhere.
Today Through Sunday Night Regional radar imagery showed some isolated SHRA/TSRA across NWRN/NRN sections early this morning well ahead of a cold front to the NW of AR. More organized convection is ongoing along that cold front. the best chances will be along the cold front this afternoon as the cold front interacts with increasingly unstable air ahead of said front. Cannot rule out a brief tornado or two either given slightly curved hodographs at the lowest 1 km. chances for convection return to the forecast late Sun night as this front lifts back north as a warm front Sun night into Mon.
Its also rather humid with dewpoints now into the lower 60s.
421 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure remains across the western Atlantic.
Rain continues to have a hard time pushing west through dry air and appears to have mostly stalled east of the Highway 83 corridor. However, CAMs remain optimistic that rain will fill back in across the Highway 83 corridor later this morning. These locations could see another inch or more by the time the low finally kicks out into southeastern Minnesota tonight. Across the far west, we will see decreasing clouds in the afternoon which could bump highs up into the low to mid 50s here. Cloudy conditions will linger east on Sunday but ridging will move into the west, bringing with it a partly sunny sky.
A series of deep upper troughs will propagate through the westerlies across the CONUS, with each system tracking a little farther south than the previous. Temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the lower to middle 40s. The highest chances for rain will be closer to the upper low across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin with the lowest chances across eastern Wisconsin.
Then focus will turn to the next upper trof/low which is just moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon.
(Through tonight ) Drier airmass continues to advect over the region in wake of deep upper low. Winds should die down in most ares overnight with relatively low dew points, thus a cool night expected with forecast lows nudged toward the cooler MOS numbers vs NBM. Warm front will begin to lift north in response Sunday with unstable warm sector spreading into the high plains during the afternoon.
302 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure remains in control through tonight. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping near or just below freezing tonight.
617 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 (Through tonight ) Drier airmass continues to advect over the region in wake of deep upper low. Winds should die down in most ares overnight with relatively low dew points, thus a cool night expected with forecast lows nudged toward the cooler MOS numbers vs NBM. Warm front will begin to lift north in response Sunday with unstable warm sector spreading into the high plains during the afternoon.
801 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure remains in control through tonight. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping near or just below freezing tonight.
decided to trim the expiration of the high wind warning to 10 PM this evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph from the northwest will continue to be possible from the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low pressure system. Trends point toward a possible early cancellation of the High Wind Warning, perhaps near mid-evening if trends continue.
- Fogleman Upper-level high pressure ridging persists over the region this afternoon, which brought pleasant weather to the area with light winds and sunny skies.
856 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Strong to severe storms will continue to move across portions of the forecast area tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a large closed low centered over northwest IA. Surface analysis showed a 996mb occluded low centered the upper low. A cold front extended from an occlusion triple point near Chicago, southwest through AR and northeast TX. As we head into early evening, midlevel height falls and eastward translation of the low level moisture axis will likely drive convective initiation along and west of the MS River. The surface cold front will likely wash out over north MS by Sunday morning, becoming rather ill-defined under zonal flow aloft.
629 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue to work through central and south Arkansas along a cold front.
/Issued 421 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022/ High pressure remains across the western Atlantic.
Warm front will begin to lift north in response Sunday with unstable warm sector spreading into the high plains during the afternoon.
A few thin, mostly opaque high clouds have begun to stream in along the axis of a trough that is deepening across the Pacific Northwest. This trough is projected to continue to dig south and east overnight into Sunday. As west to southwest gradients increase and an axis of strong mid to upper level winds moves across northern Arizona on Sunday with this trough passage, expect very strong southwest winds by the afternoon with gusts 45-55 mph. A few localized gusts to 55+ mph may occur in some of the favored downslope areas such as Doney Park to I-40 east of Flagstaff and along the high terrain of the Kaibab Plateau and Black Mesa.
Today, scattered showers will linger into the evening followed by dry and warmer conditions Sunday.
929 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure remains in control through tonight. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping near or just below freezing tonight.
/TW/ This afternoon, a mid-level ridge is making its way east, out of the Lower Mississippi Valley Region, which will allow unseasonably warm temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s. At the surface, the exiting ridge is creating sustained southerly flow into the region, which will continue to increase moisture throughout the afternoon. Coincidentally, there is an anomalous low pressure disturbance off of the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast that is generating moisture and instability in E/SE Mississippi. The cold front is expected to stall over NW MS, which will allow for moisture to linger for areas south of the boundary.
558 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure remains in control through tonight. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping near or just below freezing tonight.
The low pressure system exits the area towards the Great Lakes Sunday evening, giving the area a brief break from precipitation on Sunday night.
A strong low pressure system was spinning over NW IA today with a warm front extending SE across the CWA roughly from CID to Galesburg as of 2 PM. Tonight and Sunday, shower and storm chances will be quickly ending or will have ended by early this evening as the warm front lifts NE through the NE CWA and a cold front quickly surges into the area from the SW. Some low clouds will be found spinning around the low as it tracks NE into northern WI by midday Sunday.
A cold front is draped south from Chicago through the state of Illinois with a warm front stretching southeast from Chicago into Northern Indiana. Southwest Lower Michigan is situated to the north and east of the occluded and warm front placing the area in a more stable regime as compared to places further south. The warm front is apparent with dew points in the 20S F still in our eastern CWA towards Lansing and Jackson with a 55 F dew point at Benton Harbor.
832 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Most of us this evening are in the low/mid 70s with a few clouds in place. We will see dry conditions until an approaching cold front brings in additional showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The aforementioned cold front nearly stalls in the middle of the forecast area on Sunday.
The upper low that helped kick off these storms will move out of the area tonight.
348 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Quiet and cooler conditions will soon be replaced with another Pacific Northwest system tracking across the intermountain west this afternoon. Relative humidities in the low teens and gusty southwest winds are leading to issuance of Red Flag warnings for Colorado zones 207,290,292,293,294,295. Temperatures in the low valleys will approach 80 degrees, adding to critical fire weather concerns.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s as temperatures continue to fall. Shower and thunderstorm activity across the lower-mid Mississippi river valley is expected to weaken some as a front approaches the mid-state overnight.
and the high wind warning has been cancelled. Wind gusts to 60 mph from the northwest will continue to be possible from the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low pressure system. Trends point toward a possible early cancellation of the High Wind Warning, perhaps near mid-evening if trends continue.
912 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warmer temperatures can be expected with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a warm front crossing in the morning followed by a cold front late afternoon / early eve. A few strong storms are possible with model progged moderate shear, instability, and dry mid level air enhancing the wind gust and large hail potential ahead of the cold front. The setup featuring a closed low aloft and a jet streak rounding the trough into the OH Valley will bring divergence aloft to the region. This, combined with decent PVA into the region will lead to frontogenesis as the surface cold front strengthens.
543 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Quiet and cooler conditions will soon be replaced with another Pacific Northwest system tracking across the intermountain west this afternoon. Relative humidities in the low teens and gusty southwest winds are leading to issuance of Red Flag warnings for Colorado zones 207,290,292,293,294,295. Temperatures in the low valleys will approach 80 degrees, adding to critical fire weather concerns.
707 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warmer temperatures can be expected with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a warm front crossing in the morning followed by a cold front late afternoon / early eve. A few strong storms are possible with model progged moderate shear, instability, and dry mid level air enhancing the wind gust and large hail potential ahead of the cold front. The setup featuring a closed low aloft and a jet streak rounding the trough into the OH Valley will bring divergence aloft to the region. This, combined with decent PVA into the region will lead to frontogenesis as the surface cold front strengthens.
802 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight to Sunday morning in the circulation around low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes.
910 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Wind speeds have fallen below headline criteria, so cancelled both the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory. A ridge aloft then builds east across the area on Sunday, with dry conditions, but also with cold air stratocu clouds hanging in over especially the eastern CWA.
1043 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight to Sunday morning in the circulation around low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes.
The rest of the night and into tomorrow morning, a few showers may develop over the local waters and the upper Keys due to the high moisture content. Breezes will slacken on Wenesday as the high slides into the eastern Atlantic waters.
552 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warm front today. Cold front Sunday with strong to severe storms possible. This lowered lows for the overnight by a few degrees or so. A band of showers associated with a warm front will continue over portions of the area this afternoon. Another band of showers with some thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight into Sunday in advance of a cold front. With a freezing level in the 10000 to 11000 ft range, some hail is possible along with downburst winds.
Wind speeds have fallen below headline criteria, so cancelled both the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory. A ridge aloft then builds east across the area on Sunday, with dry conditions, but also with cold air stratocu clouds hanging in over especially the eastern CWA.
The upper low is lingering in the Upper Midwest, and some of the cloud cover associated with this continues to circulate around it, affecting the northern third of the forecast area. That said, cloud cover will be a big factor in temperatures today, as northern areas which see more persistent clouds may only warm into the low 60s. A trough over the Rockies will lead to moisture return over the Great Plains late Sunday into Monday, with several rounds of thunderstorms firing along the warm front and dry line. This will be our primary window for thunderstorms across our area as the low level moisture surge coincides with steepening lapse rates aloft.