Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
514 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across the central CONUS today and tonight.
Upper ridge moving into the Plains with some cirrus pouring into our western counties. Many spots may not get below freezing. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern moving into the week ahead.
Another night of fog/dense fog is underway across favored upslope areas of central SD and the Prairie Coteau, given the easterly sfc winds influenced by high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Yesterday's fog and low clouds lingered into the afternoon for some, leading to increased RH and cooler temps. Southeasterly winds will increase across the CWA this morning and afternoon, being that we're on the northeastern side of an incoming low pressure system's warm front.
High pressure moves back in this afternoon with a very dry airmass in place. Trended on the higher side of guidance given the dry nature of the airmass.
410 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 Updated Aviation High pressure will lead to highs in the mid 80s through this weekend, with a slight chance of reaching 90 degrees in Phoenix on Sunday, though it will be considerably more cloudy on Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The 500 mb trough that ushered through the mild fropa today will continue moving east allowing for weak ridging to build over the RGV later tonight. This in combination with the low level flow pattern becoming more onshore throughout the weekend, expect cld cover to prevail for much of the period with some sunshine breaking through periodically.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Dry and mild weather continues through the weekend as the mid-level ridge currently centered over the Four Corners region shifts eastward.
As the high approaches, a moderate surface pressure gradient will create gusty northeast winds, sustained near 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph. The recent suite of global model guidance still suggests that gradual amplification of a broader longwave trough across the Eastern Seaboard will occur later today and tonight, as the wave currently across our region shifts southeastward and a stronger vort max digs south- southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the central Appalachians. Although not noted in the current weather grids, conditions could also become favorable for the development of patchy freezing fog in valleys and near other large bodies of water around sunrise. Mid/high-level flow will begin to subside and back to the west- northwest by Sunday afternoon, as the dampening longwave trough to our east begins to lift northeastward into the western North Atlantic.
Natrona county will see the highest winds with gusts into the 50 mph range, and occasional gusts near 60 mph are possible at Outer Drive. Models continued to weaken this system with the 00Z runs so we kept the PoP and QPF on the low end. Weak ridging takes hold again on Sunday leading to another mild and dry day. A deepening trough along the West Coast will keep winds breezy in the wind corridor from the Green Mountains to Casper, but not near as strong as Saturday.
259 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 High pressure will lead to highs in the mid 80s through this weekend, with a slight chance of reaching 90 degrees in Phoenix on Sunday, though it will be considerably more cloudy on Sunday.
Main weather change today is expected in eastern New Mexico with lighter winds and warmer temperatures.
355 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 A high amplitude upper ridge dominated the Rocky Mountains, with upper troughs over the western and eastern CONUS. Ridging surface and aloft will maintain the fair, mild and dry weather pattern this weekend.
Winds weaken through Sunday as high pressure builds in.
Our warm pattern will persist into the first part of the workweek with weak upper ridging aloft transitioning to southwesterly flow.
321 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 A high amplitude upper ridge dominated the Rocky Mountains, with upper troughs over the western and eastern CONUS. Ridging surface and aloft will maintain the fair, mild and dry weather pattern this weekend.
Afternoon dewpoints should drop into the lower 30s across north central KS which will push min RH values into the 20-30% range.
What this means in terms of temperatures for today is that there will be some warming over yesterday - most realized west of Interstate 29 where there will be more influence from the upper level ridge - though readings will be somewhat tempered across the CWA by the southeasterly flow. This will play out to highs in the mid and upper 60s through the James/MO River Valleys, to the lower to mid 50s east of Interstate 29. It will be breezy today with mixed layer winds running around 15 to 20 kts, and this in combination with the warmer temperatures will result in an enhanced fire danger. Because of that, stayed on the warmer side of guidance with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 (Issued 336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021) Today and Tonight: High pressure will sit over WI today and shift over lower MI on Sunday. Temperatures today will be just a bit cooler than yesterday, although still above climatological normal due to this dry air mass. Tonight will be chilly once again in the upper teens and lower twenties as the upper low departs. Warm air advection will kick in on Sunday with return flow around the high and gusty southerly winds.
/issued 329 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/ The upper-level ridge axis is gradually shifting eastward and will center itself over the forecast area this afternoon. A 700 mb subsidence layer, sampled on the 06/00Z observed RAOBs from ABQ and EPZ, associated with the centering of the ridge axis over the CWA will inhibit the extent of vertical mixing this afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s area-wide as a result despite the breezy south winds. A weakness within a broad upper ridge will pass with minimal impacts tomorrow. This will occur as a large trough/low currently developing over the eastern North Pacific edges inland mid-late week.
With cool northerly flow continuing through the morning hours, expect lows this morning in the low to mid 40s. Due to the cooler air mass in place today, expect highs in the low 60s.
Clouds will increase today as a weak cold front moves through the region later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler compared to the last few days with highs in the mid and upper 40s.
903 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will remain across the Maritimes today while high pressure builds west of the region.
GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery this morning indicates a trough extends across the Southern Plains with its axis located over northern Texas. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will continue to advect cooler and drier into South Texas during the morning hours. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 70s expect along the immediate coast.
353 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Another night of fog/dense fog is underway across favored upslope areas of central SD and the Prairie Coteau, given the easterly sfc winds influenced by high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Yesterday's fog and low clouds lingered into the afternoon for some, leading to increased RH and cooler temps. Southeasterly winds will increase across the CWA this morning and afternoon, being that we're on the northeastern side of an incoming low pressure system's warm front.
Above normal temperatures are expected! High pressure will be centered across the area today and tonight, allowing for continued quiet conditions under mostly clear skies. Winds will remain light with the high being directly overhead. The high pressure center will slide off to the east of the area, allowing warmer air to lift northward into the area. Heights will increase further as the upper-level ridge axis slides directly overhead. This would put temperatures around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year! Did trend toward warmer guidance for Sunday, leaning toward the 75 percentile for highs.
Conditions remain VFR for now, but an area of low pressure is brining rain showers into the region. As the rain clears overnight and a cold front pushes through, lower CIGs, followed by increasing winds are likely towards tomorrow morning. Rain showers are showing up across coastal waters, and will be an issue throughout the day as an area of low pressure and attendant cold front push through.
An upper level ridge axis will traverse from near the Montana/North Dakota border this morning to central North Dakota through the afternoon. We are expecting highs to range from the lower 50s across the Turtle Mountains to the upper 60s southwest. Ahead of an approaching cold front, winds will become breezy this afternoon. A cold front will swing through Sunday morning and as a result Sunday will not be as warm, but highs should remain well above normal with widespread readings in the upper 40s to mid 60s. Behind the cold front, winds will once again be breezy Sunday afternoon, but out of the west or northwest.
303 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 The upper-level ridge axis is gradually shifting eastward and will center itself over the forecast area this afternoon. A 700 mb subsidence layer, sampled on the 06/00Z observed RAOBs from ABQ and EPZ, associated with the centering of the ridge axis over the CWA will inhibit the extent of vertical mixing this afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s area-wide as a result despite the breezy south winds. A weakness within a broad upper ridge will pass with minimal impacts tomorrow. This will occur as a large trough/low currently developing over the eastern North Pacific edges inland mid-late week.
Cooler temperatures will prevail today with some light precipitation possible north of Fresno County as a storm system moves across northern California.
935 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will pass well to our south through today. Otherwise, chilly high pressure will extend east across the central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the weekend. Highs across northern two-thirds of the forecast area today will average 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. However across the southern counties, highs will be very comparable to yesterday and perhaps even a degree or two cooler, owing to the mid/high clouds persisting into the afternoon. The mid/upper trough axis will shift to our east and well offshore Sunday.
341 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 A warm front is lifting through wrn and ncntl Nebraska this morning with dew points falling into 20s. This dry air will remain across the region today and then retreat west this evening with the approach of a Pacific cold front, currently moving through the nrn Rockies. The temperature forecast uses the 50-75 percentile of the model blend for highs in the low to mid 70s today and highs in the 60s to lower 70s Sunday. This forecast mocks the warmer MAV guidance plus a few degrees.
Temperatures across the state are on the cool side with readings generally in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
205 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 The upper ridge axis is shifting quickly east and 500 mb winds will be backing to the southwest today. The lower levels are expected to dry out with humidity dropping into the teens and 20s by afternoon as some very dry air mixes to the surface. first will be the foothills west and south of Billings where lee side pressure troughing will induce a tighter pressure gradient. Tonight, a fast moving short wave trough and associated cold front will move across the region in the evening. The lower levels will be too dry to squeeze much if any precipitation out. Conditions will be less windy and a little cooler Sunday behind the cold front.
This will result in mostly clear and cool conditions this weekend with warmer temperatures then expected for the upcoming work week. This will result in north to northwesterly low level flow and a continuation of cooler temperatures. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs in the low to mid 40s. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower 40s in the northeast to the upper 40s across the southwest.
The lee trough will move off the high terrain tonight in response to the approach of the mid-level disturbance with that boundary weakening over our area on Sunday.
359 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Dry and mild weather continues through the weekend as the mid-level ridge currently centered over the Four Corners region shifts eastward.
A subtle and stationary trough of low pressure aligned from the Straits of Florida into the south central Gulf of Mexico will gradually lift northward into extreme South Florida by this evening. This will be in response to a well pronounced mid and upper level low along the north central Gulf of Mexico plowing southeastward which will enhance a broad area of low pressure to develop along the front, before pressing southward into the Straits of Florida by late tonight. With that, low level confluence associated with the nearby trough, increasing moisture and mid and upper level ascent, rain chances will be on the rise later this afternoon and tonight, before much drier and cooler air filters into our area by Sunday morning.
506 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will remain across the Maritimes today while high pressure builds west of the region.
Current surface map shows trof/stationary front across far eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Upper level ridge located over the Northern Plains, with cirrus coverage increasing. Dry cold front passage tonight.
630 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will pass well to our south through today. Otherwise, chilly high pressure will extend east across the central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the weekend. The high was building south and east through the OH/TN valley and central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. The high cloudiness will occasionally be thin enough for ample sunshine, but at other times will be thick enough to dim or obscure the sun. This high level moisture is associated with several upper level disturbances that will be tracking SE and E within the large and broad trough over the eastern United States. The mid/upper trough axis will shift to our east and well offshore Sunday.
647 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will remain across the Maritimes today while high pressure builds west of the region.
428 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 Current surface map shows trof/stationary front across far eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Upper level ridge located over the Northern Plains, with cirrus coverage increasing. Dry cold front passage tonight.
Despite this, temperatures will be several degrees warmer today, thanks in part to more sunshine. Leaned towards the warmer side of the scope, closer to the 75th percentile of available output.
This will result in mostly clear and cool conditions this weekend with warmer temperatures then expected for the upcoming work week. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower 40s in the northeast to the upper 40s across the southwest.
329 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 The upper-level ridge axis is gradually shifting eastward and will center itself over the forecast area this afternoon. A 700 mb subsidence layer, sampled on the 06/00Z observed RAOBs from ABQ and EPZ, associated with the centering of the ridge axis over the CWA will inhibit the extent of vertical mixing this afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s area-wide as a result despite the breezy south winds. A weakness within a broad upper ridge will pass with minimal impacts tomorrow. This will occur as a large trough/low currently developing over the eastern North Pacific edges inland mid-late week.
530 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 A warm front is lifting through wrn and ncntl Nebraska this morning with dew points falling into 20s. This dry air will remain across the region today and then retreat west this evening with the approach of a Pacific cold front, currently moving through the nrn Rockies. The temperature forecast uses the 50-75 percentile of the model blend for highs in the low to mid 70s today and highs in the 60s to lower 70s Sunday. This forecast mocks the warmer MAV guidance plus a few degrees.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, though the sheltered valley areas in Grand county will likely lag behind under strong inversions.
High pressure at the surface was noted across the Mississippi River Valley and extending north into the Ohio Valley. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 33 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 30 54 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 30 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 25 49 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 0.
253 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 An amplified ridge extends from the Desert SW well into the central Canadian Provinces. The strength of this ridge will be forcing the next upstream system to translate through the Northern Rockies today. We have been warming nicely in the lower elevation snow-free areas. Winds ahead of the upper trough also look to pick up a bit and help with mixing so did stay on the warmer side of guidance. Flat ridging builds in behind this system with the Westerly flow aloft backing to the SW on Sunday.
507 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 High pressure will continue to build in over the area through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. Temperatures across the state are on the cool side with readings generally in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
TFJ An upper ridge over eastern Montana this morning will move to the east today. Look for warm and dry weather today ahead of a cold front that will move through the area this evening. The cold front this evening will have limited moisture and only Petroleum County will have any chances for showers.
947 AM PST Sat Mar 6 2021 Expect cooler temperatures this weekend along with breezy winds and a chance of showers. But with the higher sun angle of early March snow will likely have a hard time sticking to the roads over the mountain passes.
Shower activity is still rather quiet at this hour with widely scattered coverage south of the Lower and Middle Keys, extending into the distant Straits. This is despite the modest skinny CAPE of ~1000 J/kg within the warm sector of this low pressure system (due to rather poor overall lapse rates). No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, but mariners should be making final preparations today as a cold front approaches the region.
1141 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Dry and mild weather continues through the weekend as the mid-level ridge currently centered over the Four Corners region shifts eastward.
In the absence of lee troughing, highs this afternoon will stay cooler in the 60s with mostly 30s overnight.
140 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Warmer temperatures are on the way for Sunday along with stronger winds. The area of high pressure currently extending from western Ontario into the mid-Mississippi River Valley will work slowly off to the east tonight and Sunday. This will allow a cold front to emerge from the Rockies and tighten up the pressure gradient over the region for Sunday. These winds will bring in warmer air with highs expected to top out from the middle/upper 40s to the upper 50s. Wide and expansive ridging aloft is contributing to these above normal temperatures.
150 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Low pressure will pass well to our south through today. Otherwise, chilly high pressure will extend east across the central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the weekend. Highs across northern two-thirds of the forecast area today will average 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. However across the southern counties, highs will be very comparable to yesterday and perhaps even a degree or two cooler, owing to the mid/high clouds persisting into the afternoon. The mid/upper trough axis will shift to our east and well offshore Sunday. As high pressure moves offshore, winds will shift from the north to the southwest and allow for increasing temperatures through the week.
307 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Moderating temperatures into mid week - Gusty winds at times - Risk for heavier rain potentially arriving Wed into Thu - Moderating temperatures into mid week One more cold night ahead of us tonight with good radiational cooling expected thanks to high pressure moving overhead.
The drier airmass will also allow temps to warm a little quicker as well despite the cooler northerly flow at the surface. Most other locations will top out in the low to mid 60s later this afternoon. Although our frost/freeze program for the spring doesn't officially start until March 15th, we'll likely have freezing temps in the north and widespread frost elsewhere. The very dry airmass will remain in place across the Southeast through Sunday, and have kept temps on the higher side of the guidance in the mid and upper 60s across the board.
High pressure builds into the region behind last nights precipitation. This comes as an upper trough swings across the region. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s, and some upper 50s possible in the Delta. High pressure at the surface will move in today as well as northwest flow aloft.
Northerly to northeasterly flow tonight through Sunday will generally lead to cooler temperatures across the region. Temperatures will remain cool with lows tonight dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s, but are expected to rebound with highs climbing into the low to mid 60s across the region.
200 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 An upper level ridge has brought unseasonably warm temperatures to southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle; highs are 10 to 20 degrees above normal today. Don't foresee changing conditions across this section of the region until the low-level jet diminishes around sunset.
Temperatures will hit the lower to mid 60s along this corridor early this afternoon.
The cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning, and is generally expected to be east of the area this afternoon. Gusty winds and low level wind shear with cold front today. Winds turning W to NW 10-15 with gusts to 20-25 kt behind a cold front this afternoon.
Lows from the low to mid 30s tonight across the southwest where winds will decouple. A weak cold front will move through Western NE on Sunday. With mild 850 mb temperatures will place, only slightly cooler from the upper 60s northern NE, to the low 70s south.
On Sunday as cooler northerly flow continues, highs are expected to be similar to today in the mid to upper 60s with the potential for some low 70s to creep into some localized areas.
Expect mostly clear skies throughout the short term as a result of this high pressure, with only some passing high cloud at times. Strong high pressure will center across the southeast part of the country through midweek enabling a nice S/SW low level flow to advect much milder air into the Ohio Valley. With the added influence of ridging aloft expanding into the region as well.
1134 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 A warm front is lifting through wrn and ncntl Nebraska this morning with dew points falling into 20s. This dry air will remain across the region today and then retreat west this evening with the approach of a Pacific cold front, currently moving through the nrn Rockies. The temperature forecast uses the 50-75 percentile of the model blend for highs in the low to mid 70s today and highs in the 60s to lower 70s Sunday. This forecast mocks the warmer MAV guidance plus a few degrees.
1015 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 An amplified ridge extends from the Desert SW well into the central Canadian Provinces. The strength of this ridge will be forcing the next upstream system to translate through the Northern Rockies today. We have been warming nicely in the lower elevation snow-free areas. Winds ahead of the upper trough also look to pick up a bit and help with mixing so did stay on the warmer side of guidance. Flat ridging builds in behind this system with the Westerly flow aloft backing to the SW on Sunday.
155 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 Upper ridge was in the process of breaking down. The cold front will switch winds to the west and northwest and provide some gusts of 30-45 mph briefly as the front passes. Sunday will be cooler behind the front but highs will still be above normal, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 50s.