Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 Upper level analysis has rather flat ridge across the western CONUS with near zonal flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure has shifted into north central NE with cold front almost through south central SD. Winds behind the front have been very gusty out of the northwest, with some of the higher gusts over 50 mph.
400 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 Weakening high pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow will allow the marine layer to build slightly through the week.
125 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep upper trough dominating much of eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Wednesday night: A trough digging SE across the Upper MS Valley at the start of the period will interact with an upper jet, and in combination with weak low-level WAA, will produce a band of showers and some embedded storms across northern WI that will bleed into Upper MI.
Upper level ridge will build back over the state on Wednesday.
1130 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Aviation section updated Satellite imagery this evening shows compact upper level low centered over southern Saskatchewan moving rapidly east with dry air and clear skies in its wake over much of MT and the Northern Rockies. As the upper low continues east tonight, winds aloft will diminish and the surface pressure gradient across the region will relax for continued diminishing of winds. VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front have moved through most of the forecast area this afternoon. Short wave ridging aloft builds over the northern Rocky Mountain region on Wednesday for dry and warm conditions through Thursday morning.
410 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The upper air pattern over the CONUS has changed very little over the past day with a deep layer ridge holding strong from California. eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. Broad high level trof swinging across the Northeast US keeps the convective pattern more active well to our north. Considering this and the associated larger scale subsidence on the eastern flank of the upper ridge. /10 Broad ridging, both at the surface and aloft, will remain in place across the region Thursday as the main storm track stays well to our north.
(Issued 334 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016) The upper level high shifts east today from it's current position over the Red River Valley towards the ARKLAMISS. However, the ridge and upper level heights will be increasing as the high shifts east and is evident in latest forecast soundings from the NAM4km/GFS/SREF.
153 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Weak high pressure will keep the weather dry today. Have removed pops in the southern ridges and made minor adjustments to cloud cover for the overnight. Expect warmer air to overspread the area this afternoon. There still remain questions on the exact track the complex will take, and in turn where the warm front, which will help to guide the system, will setup tonight. Conditions will improve from north to south Thursday afternoon, as a slightly cooler and drier airmass slowly overspreads the area.
With a strong upper low and associated forcing tracking across north central MT at this time, think it's only a matter of time before convection fires.
An area of high pressure will move east tonight as a low pressure moves through NE. The low will move through Iowa wednesday spreading precipitation north toward the forecast area. The storms should stay below severe limits but can't rule it out in the brainerd lakes areas if the higher capes drift north.
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The warm front has taken its time getting back north today.
400 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 RETRANSMISSION Weakening high pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow will allow the marine layer to build slightly through the week.
427 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A potent low pressure system will travel from Iowa to Illinois today, then across Northern Indiana and Ohio tonight. The low will carry the potential for severe thunderstorms containing widespread damaging winds, along with torrential rain.
1142 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure continues to persist over the southern half of the contiguous US. As the axis of the high pressure shifts eastward on Wednesday, precipitable water will increase slightly to near 0.
334 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The upper level high shifts east today from it's current position over the Red River Valley towards the ARKLAMISS. However, the ridge and upper level heights will be increasing as the high shifts east and is evident in latest forecast soundings from the NAM4km/GFS/SREF.
354 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Upper high located between Dallas and Amarillo this morning. We should see the high spread linearly more eastward as a true ridging pattern. Some clouds and possibly even some showers will move southward on the east side of the high today before it settles into the area. At the moment, moisture moving around the east side of the upper high will move southwest into the area this morning. This will change later today as we should see some deeper dry air moving into the area from the southeast as the upper high ridges eastward.
249 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The mid level ridge will sustain hot and dry weather thru today, but will get suppressed to the south on Thursday as a strong upper wave slides across the Ohio Valley.
225 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front just to our north. This front is forecast to lift north today as a warm front and should have little effect or relief from the heat for the heartland. After that the upper level ridge builds back into the region placing a strong cap or temperature inversion over the area between 6k and 10k feet with CINH negative 50 or more.
144 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND CROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY MORNING PULLING A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
Upper ridge axis centers over NC TX today, with a mid-level ridge axis centered over NE TX to help keep low to mid level moisture above average and surface to 700 mb winds as onshore flow. Close proximity of the upper ridge influence should limit convection and preclude the chance of thunder, but a few showers could form over the Coastal Prairies where PWat values remain elevated. The higher moisture content should help curb high temperatures, but heat indices will again reach triple digits for much of the areas south and east of the escarpment, and min temps will trend upward from higher dew points.
549 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 An upper level low will move across our region today. Low pressure will then pass to our south on Thursday perhaps bringing southern zones some showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures move in for the weekend. A short wave trough currently moving through south eastern Ontario will move into New Hampshire and Maine this morning. Ahead of the trough, clouds are beginning to spread into the northern portion of the forecast area. With the very cold air aloft, small hail is possible as freezing levels drop to around 7000ft.
The center of the upper level ridge will shift to the southeast throughout the day today while still allowing high temperatures to increase near and a few degrees above the century mark. This convection will be able to make further eastward progression compared to yesterday due to the weakening upper ridge and a more zonal flow pattern.
355 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Warm front was arced across the SW half of the forecast area with a heavy rain, and occasionally severe, MCS on-going early this morning from N central IA across SE IA into north central IL. Somewhat concerned that the warm front may remain further south and SW than models depict and the critical triple point with the area of low pressure advancing SE out of SD will move through east central IA or possibly SE IA into west central IL this afternoon. There will likely be a break from mid to late morning before a wave of low pressure triggers scattered thunderstorms, which may be severe with damaging wind, large hail and isolated tornadoes in the afternoon. Wind directions will be largely dependent on where the warm front sets up.
500mb ridge across the south central United States will continue to provide subsidence across most of south Texas the rest of tonight into Wednesday. Isolated convection may develop across the coastal sections of the CWA Wed afternoon as the seabreeze front develops along the lower TX coast and moves further inland. high pressure will settle across the region. Rain chances will be limited due to the high pressure system and dry weather will prevail.
A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Surface ridging to the south will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. The nam displayed surface-based LI's near -6 and total totals in the lower 50s today. Strong heating south of the front with h85 westerly flow plus recent verification favors the higher temperature guidance today. Leaned toward the higher low temperature guidance tonight because of expected boundary layer wind. The models depict the front remaining north of the area with surface ridging near the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The models indicate building upper ridging which should further diminish the thunderstorm chance. We followed the higher high temperature guidance. The models show the front sinking a little farther southward with somewhat diminished upper ridging Thursday night.
this boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front as southerly flow increases in advance of a storm system moving through the Northern Plains and southern Canada. With the low-level jet largely focused west of the region overnight along with the fact that the boundary will be lifting north. models continue to highlight well-pronounced thermal ridging across the region Wednesday afternoon. all in advance of a weak cold front that will begin sliding into the area during the afternoon hours.
335 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure will continue from coast to coast over the southern half of the U. Small amounts of moisture riding north on this western periphery of the ridges will travel from NW Mexico and along the AZ and NM border into western CO and eastern UT today through Thursday. A strengthening closed low over the Pacific Northwest will travel east along the U.
High pressure will return by the end of the week, with plenty of sunshine and increasingly warm temperatures this weekend. Short wave trough seen on WV imagery tracking across the Great Lakes this morning is resulting in a batch of showers moving mainly through the North Country. Latest guidance had shifted northern edge of precipiation associated with convective complex or remnant low moving along a warm front to the south of continuity.
An upper low off the British Columbia coast will move S-SE and remain offshore through Thursday. Ahead of the low, a dry southwest flow aloft will reside over SE Oregon and SW Idaho resulting in mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees warmer today and slightly cooler on Thursday. Winds will be locally breezy near the Nevada border this afternoon and across the higher terrain Thursday afternoon.
Tonight Through Thursday The center of the upper level ridge is in place to the west of the region over the SRN Rockies. Should see most areas remain dry however due to the ridge aloft. Not much difference will be seen for Wed regarding precip as the upper ridge will remain overhead and to the west of the CWA. The upper ridge will flatten some for Thu. There will be a cold front approaching from the north late Thu afternoon.
Cold front and associated pressure rises have pushed well to the southeast of our cwa, and winds have decreased significantly since last evening. Water vapor imagery shows dynamic trof moving east through southeast Saskatchewan as flat ridge builds over Montana. This ridge will bring us quiet weather today as winds shift to the N-E over time.
A very warm and dry air mass will remain in place through this weekend as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern part of the country. Continued onshore flow will keep cooler conditions near the coast with the potential for overnight low clouds to return in the next few days.
High pressure and very hot temperatures will continue through today.
544 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will drift southeast over the region today, accompanied by dry air with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure will be moving out of the Midwest later today and tonight.
Winds will shift to west and northwest today ahead of a cold front moving into the region tonight. A prefrontal trough will push through the region today, shifting winds to the west/northwest, and bringing drier air into the region. Expect highs today to reach the lower 90s across much of the region. A return closer to normalcy will come as a cold front moves through the region tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees cooler (though still well above normal), with highs in the 70s across the region.
533 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 A cooler/colder air mass will spread southeast during this time.
The pattern aloft is nearly zonal, but showing a broad trofiness practically from the Rockies to the East Coast, with decent northern stream wave scooting across the Northern Plains while a ragged southern stream wave moves through the Ozarks. However, forecast soundings suggest we could lose ice in the clouds just before the precip ends, which would spell a brief period of freezing drizzle. However, given that it's not one of the most likely scenarios, and will likely be light and falling on relatively warm pavement, the probability and impact of any potential freezing drizzle are too small to mention in the forecast. Low-level thermal trof will be the main player on Thursday, limiting max temps to right around freezing.
A building ridge today and Thursday will bring mainly dry conditions, lighter winds and mild temperatures to much of the area.
A winter storm is bearing down on the two state area with a mix of snow and freezing rain expected today and tonight. A challenge will be with the timing of the above freezing warm air advection that will turn the frozen pcpn to all rain. Meanwhile the warm air aloft will overrun the colder sub freezing temps sfc temps and freezing rain will occur across the ykm/kittitas valleys including the gorge. The warmer air is forecast to mix down to the surface across the entire area Thursday and all rain is expected into Thursday night.
807 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold front moves southeast of the region. Behind this, upslope snow will continue into Thursday afternoon, enhanced somewhat by passage of the mid level trough. Have issued a winter storm warning for the higher eastern Tucker and Garrett, closer to best moisture and where synoptic snow looks to hold on longest. Winter weather advisory has been issued for the remainder of the ridges and up to Indiana county. Outside of the ridges, lesser amounts should stay under advisory criteria, although Monongalia and Marion counties in will need to be monitored for headlines, as they will be closer to better lift and deep moisture.
Cold airmass will remain over the northern plains today as high pressure slides into the region, with highs ranging from the single digits across northwestern SD to the 20s across the southwest. A strong upper ridge over the western CONUS will shift eastward over the region Thursday, and a warm front will push into the area from the southwest.
Otherwise a ridge of cold high pressure will continue to build into the area.
Expect areas of low cloud and fog to clear up by late morning as a strong ridge of high pressure strengthens overhead.
The cold front will quickly sweep this activity east of the area by early Thursday morning. Behind the front a tight pressure gradient will lead to a windy Thursday as cooler temperatures are ushered into the area. Much cooler high temperatures will range from the 40s north to lower 60s in central Georgia. RW 500mb longwave trough will continue moving offshore Thursday night.
From Thursday through the end of the period high pressure will overspread the region bringing in a cooler and drier airmass.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a dry cold front eases into the area. /issued 348 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/ Upper ridge axis centered over the West Coast will build across the region over the next few days.
629 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Aviation A low pressure system over Ontario will deepen as it pulls away from Michigan today. Meanwhile another wave of low pressure will track from the Central Plains through through the Ohio Valley this evening and off the Mid Atlantic on Thursday.
600 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold front moves across the area. Snow is expected late tonight into Thursday morning with the highest accumulations in south-central PA.
Very mild and juicy airmass (TPW in excess of an inch) continues to stream up into NorCal ahead of the deep trough over the eastern Pacific. Very high snow levels will limit snowfall accumulation to just the highest peaks.
This storm will be warmer and wetter than the previous storm and will accelerate snowmelt and raise river levels, especially on Thursday. The storm's warm front will move northeast through our CWA tonight and stall in central Idaho Thursday, where heavy amounts of rain will soak into the snowpack.
Westerly winds will gradually veer to the northwest, and then north this afternoon as a cold front moves into the area, and could be gusty at times. /issued 348 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/ Upper ridge axis centered over the West Coast will build across the region over the next few days.
A cold front moves through this evening, bringing a northerly wind shift and cooler air to the region.
A colder blast of air will arrive tonight causing highs Thursday only to reach the low 20s. A return to warmer temperatures will occur over the weekend with rain arriving once again.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge axis lies across our region and into the bahamian chain, as well as into the Gulf of Mexico. With the ridge axis nearby, winds are mostly south at less than 10 knots. In wake of a short wave trough departing off the southeast Florida east coast, a low level divergent flow combined with scant moisture will preclude any shower activity.
Remnants of the trough finally exiting to the northeast today as an upper trough swinging through Ontario helps to move it along. Due to the expected location of the high, we will see some weak upslope flow on our side of the mountains from the surface up through 850mb. However, confidence is on the low side again as we just don't have quite enough moisture yet. Highs will be a degree or two warmer, giving us near normal temperatures across most areas. Skies clear this evening as we lose our heating and overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s, which is still a few degrees below normal. H5 Ridge of high pressure stays fairly flat Sunday across the southern half of the nation, allowing only diurnal higher terrain isolated convection across our forecast area.
Dewpoints have risen a few more degrees today versus yesterday, so expecting slightly warmer temperatures tonight along with a bit more patchy fog throughout the area.
High pressure will keep the weather quiet and pleasant through the weekend.
best chance for convection still looks to be around the mtns and close to the Co border into this evening though noting some Cu formation along the Pine Ridge.
The dry and hot conditions will persist through the weekend due to high pressure over the eastern third of the nation.
As the high pressure moves southwest the winds will be northeasterly. The high resolution models are indicating there could be some instability today.
Any light fog across the area should then lift with the onset of daytime heating, resulting in another seasonal/tranquil day, as high pressure becomes layered over the mid/srn Atlantic Basin. Little change in the overall pattern is then xpcted into the second half of the weekend period, as high pressure to the ENE becomes layered a bit more ewd into the mid/srn Atlantic Coast. However, blended guidance keeps rain chances as a silent 10 percent or less, and given the low prob will maintain a dry forecast into the new work week.
224 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 At 2 AM, weak transient ridging was beginning to build over Nebraska and Iowa. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extended from the High Plains of Colorado to Minnesota, with a few thunderstorms ongoing near the boundary to our east and west. Weak ridging aloft should contribute to standard summer conditions across Nebraska and Iowa today.
While the deep layer shear will be somewhat marginal, low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower 60s along the front will result in CAPE near 2000 J/kg should support strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of northern Nebraska. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 80s across the area.
Saturday should bring another increase in thunderstorm development as an upper trough travels over northern CO and UT in the afternoon and evening. Better vertical shear and dynamic lift ahead of the trough will bring stronger storms with the possibility of hail, heavy rain and strong wind gusts. It looks like the trough will drop from northwest CO through the west- central CO valleys between about 5 pm and 8 PM. High pressure over the SW U.
323 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The center of the monsoonal upper high is showing signs of shifting to southern Arizona this morning, though the main ridge axis still extends north-northeast up to Colorado and Wyoming. As the high has relocated further south, a disturbance evident on water vapor is presently transiting across Nevada and Utah.
415 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Atlantic mid level ridging stretches across much of FL and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight then lifts northward Sun as a trough over the eastern U. At the surface a frontal trough from off the Mid- Atlantic coast to central FL will continue through the weekend although the FL portion dissipates today. This will allow broad high pressure to build across FL and out over the Gulf of Mexico. Light steering flow initially southwest but becoming more northerly Sun along afternoon seas breezes with westerly surface winds will keep the highest shower/storm coverage over inland areas. For Mon through Fri - Atlantic high pressure with a relaxed pressure gradient extends across FL to the Gulf of Mexico with a moist atmosphere.
/issued 937 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019/ A slightly warmer night than 24 hours ago. Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Mainly rain free weather is expected tonight into the weekend as high pressure will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
There looks to be a couple weak upper perturbations trapped under the upper ridge that is bringing a few small showers to central KS. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Eastern Seaboard with a weak trough stretching from northern MN into western Nebraska. This will allow a weak cold front to migrate south for Sun into Sun evening. For the middle of the work week, upper ridging looks to slowly expand east across the central/southern Plains which should allow for a warming trend, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 for areas along and west of I-135 by Wed.