Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
738 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions through the weekend. High pressure remains dominant keeping dry weather in our forecast through Sunday evening. Today's highs will be in the mid 80's for the lowlands and upper 70's for the higher elevations. Lows overnight dropping back to the low 60's for the lowlands and low 50's in the mountains. On Sunday expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's for the lowlands and mid to upper 70's for the mountains.
Conditions will clear out overnight with lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s over the lower elevations and 30s in the high country. Not much change needed for Sunday's forecast as the upper ridge pushes north bringing mostly sunny skies and warmer than average high temperatures. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have developed over the high country moving northeastward onto the adjacent plains. An upper level ridge continues to build into the Colorado from the south Saturday. It will be a bit warmer for the high country as well with highs in the 60s to low 70s for the foothills/mountain valleys and and 50s for most of the mountains.
High pressure ridges into the region from the Mid Atlantic Coast through Sunday.
Attendant ewd cold frontal progression a bit slower per 12Z consensus. Nevertheless ewd bound of more vigorous low level theta-e ridge does advect in with modest low level forcing to support going low chc pops. However far better forcing expected Sun night as upper trough/sfc boundary pivot east. Nrn extent of staunch mid level ridge cntrd over TX will shunt swd mid week in response to intense wave wrapping up through se Canada. Some showers likely with cold frontal passage late Wed and within following chilly airmass Thu. Convective potential during the day Sunday is also on the lower confidence side.
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level ridge will remained centered over North Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
This may increase the boundary layer convergence northeast of the low. Weak cold front also moves southeast out of South Dakota and eventually stalls out across northeast Nebraska.
Overnight lows will be well above normal, with winds likely to stay up some in response to the low level jet, especially across northeast Oklahoma. (Sunday through Saturday) Near record to record heat will be the main concern weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday into mid-week as an upper level ridge builds overhead.
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Dry weather continues to be the story as high pressure develops aloft off to our southwest. Right now, models are keeping the convection in IL/IN/KY Sunday afternoon, and does not look to make it to the mid state largely thanks to that high pressure off to our southwest.
Water vapor imagery this evening shows the pronounced development of the closed area of low pressure off the West Coast of the US. While there does not appear to be a feature of any significance at the surface over land associated with this system, southerly flow on the upper low's downstream flank is helping push some moisture north across OR. Steep low and mid level lapse rates associated with height falls in the vicinity of the low has allowed for up to 100J/kg MUCAPE over OR.
Its reflection into the lower troposphere appears as weak cyclonic flow mainly off the east coast of north Florida, with the Keys influenced mainly by ridging to our northeast. Continuing with the previous synopsis, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will resume later this evening and continue through Sunday night, as high pressure moves across the Southeastern United States and into the western Atlantic.
Satellite imagery indicates clearing skies, with surface temperatures valid 18/00z in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Mostly clear conditions continue through the overnight with the potential for some high clouds to advect inland from a weak coastal trough. With decent radiational cooling conditions, lows should end up in the lower 60s with outlying and sheltered areas potentially falling into the upper 50s. Thanks to the northerly flow aloft, PWAT's will remain below 1" and hence why PoP's are less than 10% across the area despite a broad area of low pressure off the GA coast. High temps again in the upper 80's with overnight lows a bit warmer than the past few, in the mid 60's.
618 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have developed over the high country moving northeastward onto the adjacent plains. An upper level ridge continues to build into the Colorado from the south Saturday. It will be a bit warmer for the high country as well with highs in the 60s to low 70s for the foothills/mountain valleys and and 50s for most of the mountains.
The upper ridge will start to take control across the southern half of the U. A significant heat ridge will build eastward this upcoming week, peaking across Alabama in the Wed/Thu time frame.
Easterly winds will continue tonight, especially across open terrain, as they feed into the low pressure system.
Rest of the forecast in good shape with low temperatures ranging from the 40s west to the lower 50s central and east. Weak high pressure ridging has moved over the forecast this afternoon resulting in mostly sunny skies. HiRes models show this activity moving out onto the lower elevations late this afternoon into this evening, mainly along and south of a Livingston-Billings-Sheridan line.
239 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Today and Tonight: Warm, dry weather is expected across most of the forecast area again today as a mid-level ridge strengthens over the Southern High Plains and flow aloft becomes northerly. High pressure, light winds, and clear skies will allow for overnight temps to radiate down into the lower 60s in the hills of northeast Mississippi, while settling in the mid 60s farther south and west across our area. Patchy early morning shallow fog will be possible as residual low-level moisture settles in cooler low-lying areas, but dense fog is not expected.
317 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Astronomical Summer 2022 will end on a warm note, before a pattern change brings noticeably cooler temperatures into the last weekend of September right on time for the start of Fall.
237 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will remain over central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
(Today and tonight) Persistence type forecast continues under upper level high pressure. Highs otherwise will continue in the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The approaching cold front will focus development of scattered showers and a few storms this evening.
(Today) Ridging aloft amplifies across the central CONUS today with the mid level high becoming centered over the local region.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. Another front brings a chance of rain midweek, followed by much cooler temperatures for the latter part of the workweek into the weekend. Yet another chance of showers this weekend associated with ejection of blocked cutoff system off northern California coast as northeast Texas mid level ridge center flattens/shunts southeast into GOMEX.
An anomalous ridge will continue to build over the Southern Plains through early to midweek.
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through Sunday.
306 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Slowly weakening high pressure over the central Appalachians will provide us with another dry, warm day today. Severe thunderstorms will erupt from eastern Iowa to northern Illinois this evening and press to the ESE along the periphery of a strong upper ridge centered over the Red River Valley.
425 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure remains south of the region today and into tonight.
Aloft today we will transition from southwesterly flow to more zonal flow as ridging builds over the Southern Plains. This ridge will bring us abnormally hot weather for the next couple of days.
1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Seeing scattered inland showers this afternoon and will likely see isolated thunderstorms as well with temps in the lower to mid 90s. High temps will begin to creep up a degree or so tomorrow as the mid/upper ridge gets established N/NW of the region.
With yesterday's cold front finally exiting the area overnight, it will be a cooler day in a light northeasterly low level flow as high pressure settles into the region. High pressure will continue to exert influence over our area for tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds with lows down into the lower to mid 50s.
Troughing that has been over the area the last few days causing widespread showers and storms each afternoon and evening will start to push away today. This will result in slightly drier air filtering in behind it pushing the highest rain showers chances to the east coast of Florida. At the same time another upper level trough will start to set up along the east coast of the United States. This trough will help to steer Tropical Storm Fiona away the US and will also help to filter in much drier air for the middle and end of our work week.
High pressure over the northern Atlantic will slowly shift east today, and an upper high will build into the southern Plains.
240 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The continued presence of a relatively stationary dome of upper level high pressure, centered over north Texas and southern Oklahoma, will expand somewhat today into tomorrow resulting in very little change in ambient weather conditions from the previous few days.
240 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Current surface map shows weak trough across western South Dakota.
The lee trough extending into KS will be shifted to the north a bit and the pressure gradient not quite as tight so wind speeds are expected to be 3-5 mph lower generally. Afternoon high temperatures will climb 1-2 degrees on average as the subtropical ridge nudges northward throughout the day ahead of a Pacific closed low moving onshore near northern CA.
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions through the weekend. High pressure remains dominant keeping dry weather in our forecast through Sunday evening. Today's highs will be in the mid 80's for the lowlands and upper 70's for the higher elevations. Lows overnight dropping back to the low 60's for the lowlands and low 50's in the mountains. On Sunday expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's for the lowlands and mid to upper 70's for the mountains.
110 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through Sunday.
1204 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level ridge will remained centered over North Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Upper level support is limited with a 500mb ridge becoming centered over Texas. Rainfall amounts as a result are expected to be on the lower end of the spectrum with general amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with isolated higher amounts possible in heavier convection.
Breezy conditions and slightly below average temperatures will continue today into the first part of the week as a low pressure trough sits off the California coast. Moisture from this trough will result in a slight chance of showers across the Sierra, along with some high-elevation snow.
406 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 The NBM is becoming more consistent with its handle on the developing low pressure/storm system that rides overtop the Central U. high pressure ridge and impacts our northeast quad of the FA late tonight-early Monday with small chance pops.
745 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure remains south of the region today and into tonight.
613 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today through Monday) Ridging will strengthen some over the southern Plains through the short term, centering near the Red River tonight and tomorrow and keeping us mostly dry and seasonally warm.
Slowly weakening high pressure over the central Appalachians will provide us with another dry, warm day today. Severe thunderstorms will erupt from eastern Iowa to northern Illinois this evening and press to the ESE along the periphery of a strong upper ridge centered over the Red River Valley. Monday, an MCS moving along northwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will continue towards southern Indiana, but as the precipitation meets higher surface pressure, low level instability will decrease and MLCAPE will drop to 200 J/kg or less.
Strong subsidence from the building ridge to our west will keep the forecast dry.
518 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Early this morning, upper level high pressure was starting to build over the south central CONUS, while the stronger prevailing westerlies aloft remained to our north. At the surface, ridging extended from the Central Appalachians eastward over the Atlantic, keeping us cut off from significant moisture sources. This will support the southeastward progression of a cold front which is expected to reach KY by evening. The majority of the extended should be dry, as high pressure remains in control of our weather. However, an ill defined cold front will try to push south toward our area Monday and Monday night, but it may push just far enough south to fire a few showers or storms in northern portions of our forecast area.
Currently - A surface through lower level ridge straddles the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. Closer to home, lower level troughing has dug in across Florida and the Keys. Short Term Update - The weak troughing will persist across our area this afternoon. Weak troughing across the area will result in light to gentle breezes, ranging from northeast to east over our western waters and east to southeast to the east.
257 AM PDT Sun Sep 18 2022 An upper level trough will deepen over California through the middle part of the week, keeping temperatures below normal with afternoon and evening gusty west winds below the mountain passes and on desert slopes. The upper trough will lift out late in the week and high pressure will expand westward into southern California, resulting in warmer conditions.
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will remain over central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
537 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Current surface map shows weak trough across western South Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area tonight/Monday with robust low level warm advection.
7") and high pressure will build in, some isolated showers are possible today.
With yesterday's cold front finally exiting the area overnight, it will be a cooler day in a light northeasterly low level flow as high pressure settles into the region. High pressure will continue to exert influence over our area for tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds with lows down into the lower to mid 50s. With the warm air advection, 850 mb temperatures climb into the range of 20C to 25C by the afternoon - though the GFS continues to come in warmer than other models.
609 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Persistence type forecast continues under upper level high pressure. Highs otherwise will continue in the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Early this morning, upper level high pressure was starting to build over the south central CONUS, while the stronger prevailing westerlies aloft remained to our north. At the surface, ridging extended from the Central Appalachians eastward over the Atlantic, keeping us cut off from significant moisture sources. This will support the southeastward progression of a cold front which is expected to reach KY by evening. The majority of the extended should be dry, as high pressure remains in control of our weather. However, an ill defined cold front will try to push south toward our area Monday and Monday night, but it may push just far enough south to fire a few showers or storms in northern portions of our forecast area.
Rain chances are on the lower side today, but have kept a mention of VCTS for all sites between 21-01Z. Troughing that has been over the area the last few days causing widespread showers and storms each afternoon and evening will start to push away today. This will result in slightly drier air filtering in behind it pushing the highest rain showers chances to the east coast of Florida. At the same time another upper level trough will start to set up along the east coast of the United States. This trough will help to steer Tropical Storm Fiona away the US and will also help to filter in much drier air for the middle and end of our work week.
Otherwise, warming trend really kicks in today as an upper level ridge builds and strengthens over TX/OK. Although Middle Tennessee will be on the northeast side of the ridge, rising heights, warming low and mid level temps, and the dry airmass remaining in place will allow temps to rise several degrees each day through midweek.
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The continued presence of a relatively stationary dome of upper level high pressure, centered over north Texas and southern Oklahoma, will expand somewhat today into tomorrow resulting in very little change in ambient weather conditions from the previous few days.
900 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will remain over central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
557 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend. A cold front passes to the north Monday night, bringing a small chance of showers to southeastern West Virginia. The cooler mountain spots, like Burke's Garden, dipping into the upper 40s. Fog burns off around 10 AM or so, with the later time coinciding with the lower sun angle as we head into fall. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s for the mountains, and in the low to mid 80s for the piedmont. We will have some southerly component to the wind later today, so there will be a slight increase in moisture and we may be just a touch warmer overnight tonight.
Put out an SPS earlier for patchy dense fog, and do not think at this point that the lower vis are widespread enough to upgrade to advisory. There could be a fairly narrow band of good instability (over 1500 J/kg CAPE) along and ahead of the trough axis, and deep layer bulk shear is pretty strong in the 45 to 50 kt range. The period starts with a generally zonal flow aloft as the upper level ridge weakens due to a series of impulses propagating through the flow.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Mid level ridging will be centered nearly overhead through Monday resulting in well above normal temperatures and little chance for rainfall. /Issued 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022/ /Monday Night and Beyond/ A persistent ridge will be our dominant weather feature through most of the upcoming week as it remains planted over the Southern Plains. The ridge will flatten during the second half of the week as an upper trough moves southeast across the Midwest, and an upper low rounds the northern flank of the ridge (essentially migrating from the Great Basin to the Central Plains).
By the mid-morning Monday, a southerly return-flow will be in place as the CWA becomes sandwiched between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Aloft, a ridge will amplify across the Central/Northern Plains, and very warm air will advect northward.
Dry weather persist, with high pressure over the region. Another carbon copy forecast on Monday with highs a degree or two warmer.
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Today and Tonight: Warm, dry weather is expected across most of the forecast area again today as a mid-level ridge strengthens over the Southern High Plains and flow aloft becomes northerly. High pressure, light winds, and clear skies will allow for overnight temps to radiate down into the lower 60s in the hills of northeast Mississippi, while settling in the mid 60s farther south and west across our area. Patchy early morning shallow fog will be possible as residual low-level moisture settles in cooler low-lying areas, but dense fog is not expected. /NF/ Upper ridging will continue to amplify on Monday, allowing for sustained north/northeasterly flow into the ArkLaMiss region.
551 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure remains south of the region today and into tonight.
614 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today) Ridging aloft amplifies across the central CONUS today with the mid level high becoming centered over the local region.
(Today through Monday) The high pressure ridge over the Mid-Atlantic states continues to keep things dry for North and Central GA through the short term.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) Mid-level high pressure continues to slowly build across the Southern Plains into the early week. Subsidence under mid-level high pressure keeps almost all locations high and dry.
A trough in the Pacific NW will continue to keep the region unsettled over the next several days.
1027 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A trough of low pressure will develop over the region this afternoon through Monday. A weak front will push into the region on Monday and bring a chance for showers to the higher elevations and parts of northern MD.
931 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The continued presence of a relatively stationary dome of upper level high pressure, centered over north Texas and southern Oklahoma, will expand somewhat today into tomorrow resulting in very little change in ambient weather conditions from the previous few days.
558 AM PDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Low pressure deepening along the West Coast this weekend will continue to bring cool and showery weather with a few afternoon to evening thunderstorms across Northern California and portions of southwestern Oregon.
143 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A southwest flow aloft will prevail through Monday as a result of an upper low positioned along the California coast. This will result in rising heights and warmer temperatures. For Monday, expect mostly sunny skies, dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
Along the cold front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast through northeast Missouri, west central Illinois, and south central Illinois. This is conducive for supercell development along the cold front. The low level jet developing overnight will have the potential to provide additional ascent for showers and thunderstorms to develop along its nose. The cold front that sparked convection will be moving southward into the CWA by this point.
(Through Monday) High pressure will continue to slide in from the west, with east to northeasterly flow in place we'll continue to see our easternmost counties and the SE FL Big Bend have the best chances for precip as that is where the best instability lies. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
324 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Cold front pushing into northeast and western IA with very warm and unstable airmass ahead of the front. A weakening cold front will push through the cwa with winds becoming north to northeast.
1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Persistence type forecast continues under upper level high pressure. Highs otherwise will continue in the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.