Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Isolated to widely scattered showers & thunderstorms are currently developing across the higher terrain of southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle late this afternoon. Do not expect any severe storms today, but the higher probability for any stronger storms w/ small hail or gusty winds should be focused across east central WY into the northern Panhandle where up to 500 J/kg CAPEs were analyzed. A similar pattern is expected to remain in place for Sunday w/ most convection expected to remain confined to the Laramie Range and/or the Pine Ridge.
Surface ridging is translating to east of the southern Appalachians with a gradual southwest boundary layer flow for today. Surface ridging will continue to move east of the Mountains allowing winds to be southwesterly.
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure at sfc and aloft has brought the region clear skies and temperatures into the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 102 to 107 degrees with at few lctns in south cntrl Louisiana reporting 108 to 110 degrees.
(This evening through Sunday) Continued dry conditions are expected this weekend as as high pressure aloft suppresses shower and thunderstorm development. Surface temperatures Sunday otherwise increase by a degree or so, as the 850 MB thermal ridge increases by around 0. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Broad upper level ridging currently engulfs most of the southern, southwestern, and intermountain western states. Trapped within this ridge is an upper level low moving westward through western New Mexico towards eastern Arizona. In our area, an upper level anticyclone centered near Central Texas will move slowly westward this weekend across the rest of Texas.
Hennig (Today through Sunday afternoon) A broad upper ridge is over most of the southern part of the country with an upper low over Arizona and New Mexico. Storm coverage will likely be less than yesterday due to the upper level low moving west of the area.
Look for highs to reach the low 90s on an afternoon basis through the upcoming work week, with lows generally in the 70s.
We have enjoyed a recent period of below average temperatures as high pressure normally centered close to West Texas in the summer, has instead been located over the western states where they have been plagued by heat. That is starting to change with the high pressure out west breaking down and repositioning over the South Plains. Southerly low level winds will advect warmer temperatures out of northern Mexico causing temperatures to increase both today and tomorrow. Fortunately, the upper jet is located far enough south to dampen the high enough so heights remain near normal, so while temperatures will be hot this weekend they will not be too far from normal. Subsidence associated with the upper high will increase Sunday and storms should be more isolated in coverage.
Temperatures under the band of clouds has been cooler than the areas in sunshine. There is a weak cold front/boundary that has been sagging to the south during the day. Temperatures are actually cooler due to the cloud cover than the front.
1126 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Current surface map places weak cold front through western SoutH Dakota. Return flow continues into Sunday as warm front lifts northward.
Upper level ridging and much drier air in place (PWATs generally around 1. Temperatures are currently sitting in the low 90s along the coast to near 100 degrees out west. More of the same is expected tomorrow with onshore flow strengthening as low pressure across the Southern Plains deepens.
The boundary should remain just south of I-70, which may keep most of the area in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. Models prog the mid level ridge to squeeze west a bit, which may bring some NW mid level flow over the area.
The region remains on the southeast side of an upper ridge with northeast mid/upper flow, which is a dry flow and low PWATs will continue into Sunday. Highs Sunday will reach the mid 90s and heat indices in the low 100s.
223 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Isolated to scattered storms remain possible into this evening as cold front moves into the area. As these showers move east late this afternoon, there should be a dry period into early afternoon before a cold front drops into the area.
Broad high pressure remains centered just west of the area this morning.
(This evening through Sunday) Continued dry conditions are expected this weekend as as high pressure aloft suppresses shower and thunderstorm development. Surface temperatures Sunday otherwise increase by a degree or so, as the 850 MB thermal ridge increases by around 0.
The upper low is currently located over central NM per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and moving slowly westward. The upper low is forecast to be over east central or southeast AZ by 00Z this evening. This progression of the upper low will lead to different steering flow than yesterday and should be out of the south across a majority of the area by late day. The upper low will continue moving west across southern AZ overnight through Sunday, with the upper high moving/building south across eastern NM.
/issued 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ Water vapor imagery early Saturday afternoon shows a wound-up upper low over western NM, moving westward. On Sunday, The upper low will be well to the west in AZ with the upper high drifting closer to West Texas.
The highest RH will occur near KTRI around 95 percent. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 74 91 73 / 10 40 20 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 92 73 89 72 / 10 30 40 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 73 88 71 / 10 30 50 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 70 85 68 / 20 40 40 70 20.
The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are in the eastern periphery of a passing inverted upper level trough, with closed upper low located in northern New Mexico heading west. This pattern is usually one that is not favorable for convective activity due to the increasing heights aloft along with mid-level warming as the low moves west. Sunday will have a slightly different regime in place as the outgoing inverted trough continues it's westward trek. The Upper high over Nevada presently is expected to reorient in such a manner that northwest flow aloft could return during the afternoon hours.
404 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 A weak cold front has settled south of the area across northern KS this afternoon. The moist air near the surface is shallow and the higher elevation area of west central Nebraska and the Panhandle have seen dew points drop in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will climb toward the mid 90s by Sunday afternoon but the lower humidity will keep heat index readings in check and away from any advisory levels of 100F or above.
Light SE winds and clear skies will prevail for the rest of Sunday as dry high pressure persists over the region. Upper level ridging and much drier air in place (PWATs generally around 1. Temperatures are currently sitting in the low 90s along the coast to near 100 degrees out west. More of the same is expected tomorrow with onshore flow strengthening as low pressure across the Southern Plains deepens.
651 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Continued dry conditions are expected this weekend as as high pressure aloft suppresses shower and thunderstorm development. Surface temperatures Sunday otherwise increase by a degree or so, as the 850 MB thermal ridge increases by around 0. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Broad upper level ridging currently engulfs most of the southern, southwestern, and intermountain western states. Trapped within this ridge is an upper level low moving westward through western New Mexico towards eastern Arizona. In our area, an upper level anticyclone centered near Central Texas will move slowly westward this weekend across the rest of Texas.
Strong subsidence inversion in place across the region with 595dm high pressure right overhead. Overnight clear skies and light winds with temperatures dipping down into the lower to mid 70s.
505 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains, with plume of monsoonal moisture just off to our south across southeast WY into NEB. For Sunday, warm front lifts northward and will be the focus for a few afternoon/evening storms, generally from the Black Hills eastward.
Prefrontal trough extending from wrn MI into ern IL and becoming the focus for renewed/vigorous convective development by 20Z nw zones nw IN - srn MI. Otherwise trailing/weak sfc front will drop toward the OH river overnight with little fanfare as upstream anticyclone across the plains settles into the mid MS valley Sunday. Good post frontal moisture scour Sunday will counter strong subsidence warming so while some 90s likely apparent temps will lag as dewpoints mix out into the low 60s in the aftn. Continued stout low level thermal ridge in place stemming from hot plains upper ridge will yield warm temps with 90s a good bet again. Showers and thunderstorms continue to rapidly develop early this evening along pre-frontal trough type feature from northeast Illinois into west central Lower Michigan.
817 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 A trough of low pressure remains stretched across southwest Florida. The trough remains over the area on Sunday with similiar conditions expected with scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise, temperatures drop near dew points in the low to mid 70s tonight. Nevertheless, owing to the still subtle forcing, POPs will be kept in the high chance range for now (~50 pct) during the afternoon.
As of 20Z Saturday afternoon, upper level ridging continues to reside across a portion of the central and southern Plains. A modest temperature gradient exists behind the trough axis, but this is mainly due to residual cloud cover from earlier today. Otherwise, the Topeka forecast area remains within the hot and humid sector with temperatures well into the 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. With the likelihood for increased clouds and a few showers/storms tomorrow, temperatures will a touch cooler with highs in the low to middle 90s.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Latest surface and upper air analysis shows a ridge of high pressure extending over the Gulf of Mexico and Texas respectively. Temperatures both maximums and minimums may be a degree or two warmer than the last two days (top layer of soil drying out) but pretty much near normal with highs Sunday reaching upper 80s at the local beaches and 90s to lower 100s inland while lows tonight and Sunday night drop into the mid to upper 70s.
Then into tomorrow, regardless of tropical development with the system, rain chances look to increase once again as moisture builds across the region as low/trough move toward and potentially across the FL peninsula through the afternoon. Broad area of low pressure, designated Invest 90L is centered just east of Buoy 41010 and should drift very slowly west tonight. Isolated showers will continue to drift onshore in the low level NE flow.
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 A weak cold front has settled south of the area across northern KS this afternoon. The moist air near the surface is shallow and the higher elevation area of west central Nebraska and the Panhandle have seen dew points drop in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will climb toward the mid 90s by Sunday afternoon but the lower humidity will keep heat index readings in check and away from any advisory levels of 100F or above.
507 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Isolated to widely scattered showers & thunderstorms are currently developing across the higher terrain of southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle late this afternoon. Do not expect any severe storms today, but the higher probability for any stronger storms w/ small hail or gusty winds should be focused across east central WY into the northern Panhandle where up to 500 J/kg CAPEs were analyzed. A similar pattern is expected to remain in place for Sunday w/ most convection expected to remain confined to the Laramie Range and/or the Pine Ridge.
650 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region early tomorrow morning. Showers have dissipated with ewd warm front progress and a generally dry night is anticipated as low pres skirts the nrn Lakes. Rain chance will be on the increase though in the predawn of Sunday as the systems cold front emerges off the Great Lakes and triggers showers, with eventual storms for the immediate area as Sunday warms.
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Isolated to scattered storms remain possible into this evening as cold front moves into the area. As these showers move east late this afternoon, there should be a dry period into early afternoon before a cold front drops into the area.
1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure will continue through Sunday night, limiting any chances for precipitation. /Issued 1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ Subsident dome of high pressure was located over South Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm conditions. 2", and light winds, temps will dip into the low to mid 70s across the brush country and inland plains (around 80 coast) by morning.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, but still plenty hot with afternoon highs near 90 degrees.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored across the region today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday or even a degree or two warmer.
Mid-level temperatures will also be cooler over the northeast corner of the CWA as well.
1109 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains, with plume of monsoonal moisture just off to our south across southeast WY into NEB. For Sunday, warm front lifts northward and will be the focus for a few afternoon/evening storms, generally from the Black Hills eastward.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 91 73 90 / 40 30 70 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 89 72 90 / 30 40 70 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 73 88 71 90 / 30 50 70 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 70 85 68 90 / 30 40 70 20 40.
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Isolated to scattered storms remain possible into this evening as cold front moves into the area. As these showers move east late this afternoon, there should be a dry period into early afternoon before a cold front drops into the area.
1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Subsident dome of high pressure was located over South Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm conditions. 2", and light winds, temps will dip into the low to mid 70s across the brush country and inland plains (around 80 coast) by morning.
Moisture will gradually increase as a cold front approaches the region.
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Continued dry conditions are expected this weekend as as high pressure aloft suppresses shower and thunderstorm development. Surface temperatures Sunday otherwise increase by a degree or so, as the 850 MB thermal ridge increases by around 0. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Broad upper level ridging currently engulfs most of the southern, southwestern, and intermountain western states. Trapped within this ridge is an upper level low moving westward through western New Mexico towards eastern Arizona. In our area, an upper level anticyclone centered near Central Texas will move slowly westward this weekend across the rest of Texas.
Coverage and storm intensity is expected to be limited, with upper- level ridging from the west now extended over the region, but as we've seen over the last several days a rouge storm may once again surprise us with heavy rains and gusty winds. Highs mostly in the low 90s will range 0-5 degrees above normal, with morning lows in the low 70s around 3-8 degrees above normal. The upper ridge to our west continues to push east into the southern states. The upper trough will continue to deepen into portions of the mid Atlantic coast. The ridge will advance eastward for a few days and then retreat while the trough shifts westward along the eastern seaboard.
Mid- level ridging, along with warm 850 mb temperatures and low 70s dewpoints will aid in hot and muggy conditions across the state.
1124 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Isolated to widely scattered showers & thunderstorms are currently developing across the higher terrain of southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle late this afternoon. Do not expect any severe storms today, but the higher probability for any stronger storms w/ small hail or gusty winds should be focused across east central WY into the northern Panhandle where up to 500 J/kg CAPEs were analyzed. A similar pattern is expected to remain in place for Sunday w/ most convection expected to remain confined to the Laramie Range and/or the Pine Ridge.
Certainly with the increasing heights from the building ridge, that may not be enough to keep temperatures for getting to the near record values.
1248 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region for Sunday. The region being in the warm sector and cloud cover over the area will make for warmer temps through dawn and into the coming day with temps being a degree or two above normal.
The drier air will push slowly westward as the weak area of low pressure east of north central Florida drifts towards the coast today.
236 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. For today, weak warm front lifts northward.
1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 A weak cold front has settled south of the area across northern KS this afternoon. The moist air near the surface is shallow and the higher elevation area of west central Nebraska and the Panhandle have seen dew points drop in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will climb toward the mid 90s by Sunday afternoon but the lower humidity will keep heat index readings in check and away from any advisory levels of 100F or above.
Sunday is warmer than today as an upper high intensifies over northern NV.
JHM High pressure building over the Desert Southwest is setting up for a prolonged monsoonal moisture push into Northern California.
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Weak and slow-moving cold front currently extends from north of Detroit to Chicago to just south of the Quad Cities, with convection south of the front now mostly weakening over the I-70 corridor across Illinois and Indiana. At the surface, the period will likely begin with a W-E oriented frontal boundary draped across the forecast area while high pressure builds in to the north over the mid MS Valley and northern OH Valley.
Especially with the storms and resultant cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to exceed the lower 90s.
235 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Surface map early this morning showing high pressure build into the region from the Northern Plains with clear skies across the forecast area. For today, high pressure will continue building overhead providing mostly sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s to the lower 90s.
This is not seen much at the surface yet though, as dewpoints in the north have only fallen to the mid 60s (which is a 10 degree drop from last evening), and in the south half, we're still in the lower 70s on dewpoint. Some CAMs are dropping dewpoints to the 40s over the area, which certainly represents the low bound of the possibilities. In any case, highs in the lower 90s are expected, but given the moisture drop, the heat index should be very close to the actual temperature, and that's a lot cooler than yesterday's intense heat. Otherwise, light winds will continue through the day into tonight, which should allow us to drop the lower 60s north to mid 60s south tonight.
/issued 907 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ Dry and stable conditions to continue overnight as surface and upper-level ridging prevail areawide.
A negatively tilted trough continues to work into portions of the northeastern CONUS and eastern Canadian provinces. Situated just south of the area over the southern Plains is a dome of high pressure that continues to build and eventually dominate the weather pattern across the forecast area into this upcoming week bringing a return to dangerous heat across the region.
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A cold front will move through NY and PA Sunday afternoon, setting off a few showers or thunderstorms.
315 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 GOES-17 WV imagery review showed that upper low that was over NM at this time yesterday moved into eastern AZ, pushing the active moisture plume across western AZ. Latest high-resolution models show widely scattered convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with isolated coverage across along the I-25 corridor Douglas to Cheyenne and I-80 Cheyenne to Sidney, mainly during the 3 PM to 6 PM period. Monday will be dry with the ridge centered overhead. High temperatures will be 2-3 degrees warmer with lower 90s to lower 100s.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist in central Arizona early this morning as an upper low has moved into south-central Arizona. The upper low will shift westward over southern Arizona through the daylight and evening hours today. The trough axis is helping to favor areas west of a line from the Grand Canyon to Flagstaff to the White Mountains for the heaviest and most widespread coverage of rainfall this afternoon. As the upper low finally moves into far southern California by tonight, the greatest area of forcing to sustain overnight showers will also exit the forecast area.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A few isolated to scattered storms early this morning as a weak cold front sags slowly southward. Behind this front, slightly cooler temperatures and a drier airmass will make make for a somewhat less oppressive day across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas. Monday looks fairly similar to today in that temperatures and dewpoints will be several degrees cooler, and there is the potential for some storms.
Upper level ridging will persist through the short term resulting in warm and dry conditions. Even with this low moisture, some patchy morning fog will be possible this morning and again Monday morning.
720 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Weak and slow-moving cold front currently extends from north of Detroit to Chicago to just south of the Quad Cities, with convection south of the front now mostly weakening over the I-70 corridor across Illinois and Indiana. At the surface, the period will likely begin with a W-E oriented frontal boundary draped across the forecast area while high pressure builds in to the north over the mid MS Valley and northern OH Valley.
404 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A few isolated to scattered storms early this morning as a weak cold front sags slowly southward. Behind this front, slightly cooler temperatures and a drier airmass will make make for a somewhat less oppressive day across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas. Monday looks fairly similar to today in that temperatures and dewpoints will be several degrees cooler, and there is the potential for some storms.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Surface map early this morning showing high pressure build into the region from the Northern Plains with clear skies across the forecast area. For today, high pressure will continue building overhead providing mostly sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s to the lower 90s.
545 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 GOES-17 WV imagery review showed that upper low that was over NM at this time yesterday moved into eastern AZ, pushing the active moisture plume across western AZ. Latest high-resolution models show widely scattered convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with isolated coverage across along the I-25 corridor Douglas to Cheyenne and I-80 Cheyenne to Sidney, mainly during the 3 PM to 6 PM period. Monday will be dry with the ridge centered overhead. High temperatures will be 2-3 degrees warmer with lower 90s to lower 100s.
High pressure will dominate today as it settles into the western corn belt, leading to clear skies overall. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s with moisture scoured out of the region by yesterday's cold front. Monday should be a similar day to Sunday, although few degrees warmer as some slightly warmer 925mb temps will nose into the area aloft.