Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
345 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION INTO CWA TO AID IN MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF WITH EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SIMILARLY COOL AS THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL BOUNCE OFF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO WEAR IT DOWN.
Surface cold front currently is bisecting the region. Temperatures this afternoon will continue to run in the low-mid 80s out in the east with temperatures in the lower 70s in the I-75 corridor. For tonight, cold front should continue to push off to the east and we should see drier air punch in from the northwest. Lows will cool into the lower 50s in the northwest with mid 50s in the central and east. High pressure will build into the region for Sunday resulting in mostly sunny skies with mostly clear skies expected for Sunday night. Highs will generally be in the low-middle 70s with overnight lows cooling into the upper 40s to the low 50s Sunday night/Monday morning.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
130 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SE THRU NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER TROF THAT DROPS THRU THE REGION ON MONDAY IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH HAD MORE OF A MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE SPANNING THE EASTERN U. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
233 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
154 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SE OF THE AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KCLE-KCMH LINE AT 3PM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WHICH BRINGS KEEPS A COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
640 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOAT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT OVERALL EXPECT PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL COMPACT SHORT WAVES HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE TROUGH.
139 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FLAT/PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE GETTING PINCHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SOME TROUGHING SLIDES THROUGH EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RESPONSE IN BOTH ECMWF/GFS IS TO ELONGATE RIDGE TOWARD WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP S.
341 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDLESS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD LAND.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA CLOUD FREE. EXPECT A COOLER NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S. EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 50S W AND CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR S /STRETCHING FROM IL TO W NY AT 18Z SUNDAY/. AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION INTO FRI.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS LIE BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN END OF A WARM MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING ALIGNED FROM GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE BAY OF CAMPHECE FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. A 1040-1045 MB SURFACE BASED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
524 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA.
RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH REVEAL STEADY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN/AROUND THE LUBBOCK AREA HAS EXPANDED TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE PAST HOUR. EARLIER THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX /FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW/ REMAINS VALID AT LBB AND PVW LATER TONIGHT.
605 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS TO CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A LONGER WAVE TROF WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW, BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE SO CIGS ARE STARTING OFF THE EVENING MAINLY MVFR.
956 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 BETTER THAN 100M H500 HEIGHT RISES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROF. MEANWHILE H5 RIDGING AND MID LEVEL /H8-H5/ WARM ADVECTION IS EVIDENT BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ATTM.
528 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 145 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAA AND A SLIGHT BREAKUP IN THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED STREAM OF SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST/NE US THIS WEEKEND. THE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA AND IS UNDERCUT BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET AIMED AT THE WEST COAST. AS THE BLOCK SHIFTS NORTHWARD IT WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE WIND SPEEDS/GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE WIND IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA.
SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS S TX.
924 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POPS FOR CLUSTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE SPREAD FARTHER SWD AND WERE INCREASED FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A REINFORCING PUNCH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES LATE AFTERNOON.
/issued 218 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ The Nino Wave Train is speeding along with no less than 4, possibly 5 mid/upper level trofs to move thru the area over the next 7-10 days. GFS is slightly warmer and would tend to minimize the concerns for -FZDZ. Finally into Sat PM there will be the exiting of the said jet and associated shrtwv trof which will bring more -SHRA near the Big Bend/Rio Grande, although models have trended PoPs farther s.
620 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
EARLIER THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX /FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW/ REMAINS VALID AT LBB AND PVW LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG WHERE SNOW IS NOT FALLING BUT MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE IT COULD DEVELOP AND AFTER THE LAST TWO OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL DROP BELOW FAIRLY FAST AFTER SUNSET. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GUIDANCE TODAY ALONG WITH DPROG/DT CLUSTERING AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE CAPROCK WITH CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
954 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW, BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE SO CIGS ARE STARTING OFF THE EVENING MAINLY MVFR.
655 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
629 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MAY HELP ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S WHILE HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILE WARMER THAN -10 C ALL POINT TOWARDS A MARGINAL AT BEST SETUP.
632 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
625 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
A COL REGION AT MID/UPPER-LEVELS OVER COLORADO ON THE EAST SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW APART OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COASTS OF U. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLEAR SKY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ESPLY FOR THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS AND LOWER AREAS ON THE PLAINS SUCH AS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE START OF WARMING ALOFT AND LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT.
410 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS TO CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A LONGER WAVE TROF WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
Mixing is expected to persist thru the night, which shud help keep temps slightly warmer despite the clear sky. This will be offset somewhat with upper level ridge building into the region which will help keep the area dry. Otherwise and elsewhere, have gone with VFR conditions with the bulk of the lower clouds remaining north of I-70 while aforementioned low level advection suppresses the development of fog and stratus.
554 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Upper air and moisture channel data shows area of clouds over Mn that associated with weak upper trof that will rotate through northern IL late tonight and Fri morning. After the weak wave moves through tonight, drier air over the region Friday as we remain in a northwest flow aloft pattern with the main upper trof over the east coast. Series of weak cold fronts move into region to reinforce the cold air over IL.
858 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS A BLOCKING HIGH PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE WEST COAST. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAIN RIDGE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS /GUSTS TO 20 MPH/ OUT IN THE KERN DESERTS. THE INFLUENCE OF OF THE RIDGE PATTERN ARE NOW BEING FELT AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL EXPECTED NORTH OF CURRENT SURFACE DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MILLIBARS) LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN FLATTENED BY TROUGHING DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR. LIGHT RAINFALL AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT SSI TOWARDS 11Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AND UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THE REX BLOCK PATTERN /THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND LOW TO OUR SOUTH/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY.
233 PM PST THU DEC 31 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT KROW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TRICKY AS A SMALL WARM LAYER NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE COULD MEAN SOME SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FOR A WHILE NAMELY OVER CHAVES.
843 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING HAS SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS ALSO.
538 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A TAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STREAMERS ARE RESOLVED IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 06Z. CALLS TO DOT ALSO CONFIRM THAT THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING. ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES. PARTICULARLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE PRODUCTION OF HYDROMETEORS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH WFO CTP. POPS FOR CLUSTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE SPREAD FARTHER SWD AND WERE INCREASED FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOOSELY CONNECTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCE OVER GEORGIA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN A MORE EARNEST PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. GRADUAL RETROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN EACH DAY.
320 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN A WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF IT. A SWATH OF DRY AIR IS ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.
Today will also be last of a series of hot days under a persistent ridge. High temperatures will continue 10-15 degrees above normal, upper 80s in the valleys of western Montana and 90s in the Lower Hells Canyon in Idaho. A noticeable change will occur Friday with a dry cold front pushing through the region.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES WERE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST.
75 INCHES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS DUE TO UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ML CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG SE OF THE IL RIVER. HIGHS FRI TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE WABASH RIVER.
BEST CHANCES TO SEE STORMS LIE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AND IN THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
RIDGING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND LAST EVENINGS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ENTICE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL USHER IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE TREASURE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE OVER CA IS PUSHING NEXT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
608 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
531 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
113 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
AN U/L TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BUT DON'T BELIEVE THIS WILL RAP AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE APPROACHING U/L RIDGE AND WHEN DOES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT START TO TAKE HOLD IS THE QUESTION. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE U/L RIDGE EDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION WINDOW RUNS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
347 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE SUPPLIED BY A 70 KT JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES MADE STEEPER BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM POINTS TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER 7H TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOHMANN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT WITH A WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRYING, REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE AN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS ORIENTED ACRS THE BAJA INTO WRN TX. WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF WITH A LT SLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN WATERS ZONES AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE TROF OVER NEVADA WILL EJECT EAST ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY GETTING SHEARED AS ITS ENERGY GETS PULLED NORTH BETWEEN THE SRN PLAINS TROF AND A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SE CONUS. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST.
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY SEASONAL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
343 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MDCRS WIND PLOT SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FINALLY BE FORCED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH NEBRASKA UNTIL SOME TIME AFTER TONIGHT.
349 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.