3D Printing August 2021 
 
1
 
 
 
Raoul Leering 
Head of International Trade Analysis 
raoul.leering@ing.com 
 
 
All images courtesy of Shutterstock 
 
Economic & Financial Analysis
5 August 2021 
 
Economics
www.ing.com/THINK 
 
 
3D printing’s post-pandemic potential

3D printing is back in the spotlight 
3D printing caught quite some attention half a decade ago. In our 2017 report, we 
discussed the possibilities of the technology and its consequences for world trade. Now 
that 3D printing has come to the rescue in at least some markets where Covid-19 has 
caused supply shortages, the technology is attracting attention once again.  
The three articles in this follow up to our 2017 study look at the development of 3D 
printing in recent years. As for its future, specific attention is given to the short and 
longer-term effects of the pandemic on the outlook for the 3D printing business.  
Short run pain of Covid-19: a setback in demand 
Wohlers Report 2021 shows a drop in 3D printing business revenue growth to 7.5% in 
2020. This is substantially lower than the average growth rate of 25.2% in the previous 
three years, according to the report. Quite a few 3D printing companies recorded 
significant losses. Nevertheless, a positive growth rate is relatively good given the 
worldwide recession last year. The Wohlers Report shows how it compares favourably to 
the financial crisis when revenue of the 3D printing dropped 3.7% and 9.8% in 2008 and 
2009, respectively. 
Worldwide revenue growth 3D printing business, % change to previous year (2005-20) 
Source: Wohlers Report 2021 3D Printing and Additive Manufacturing: Global State of the Industry, Wohlers 
Associates 
 
3D printing set for rebound 
The growth of 3D printing plunged in 2020 due to the Covid-19 recession. But the 
experienced vulnerability of supply chains and the economic recovery could be 
catalysts for a rebound. We expect growth to recover to 25-30%, slightly higher 
than in the years before Covid-19. We don't expect 3D printing to be applicable 
for mass production any time soon

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According to 3D printing consultants, such as Wohlers Associates and Joris Peels, many 
manufacturing companies decided to postpone plans to invest in 3D printers last year 
due to their own financial problems caused by Covid-19 and because of the significant 
uncertainty about the near future. 
Small desktop printers more in demand than larger industrial ones 
The 7.5% revenue growth the industry nevertheless managed in 2020 originates in part 
from the large number of printed products sold by the service departments of 3D printer 
manufacturers and from specialised 3D printing service companies. Those companies 
that postponed buying a printer for ‘in house production’ turned to 3D printing service 
companies to fulfil their needs for printed products. Together with maintenance and 
training activities, this makes up 3D printing services. And those services grew by 9.2% in 
2020, according to Wohlers Report 2021. 
Besides services growth, the 6.7% increase in sales of smaller 3D desktop printers to 
753,000 units last year made an important contribution to the industry's overall 2020 
revenue growth, the report says.  
A negative contribution in 2020 came from the 
larger industrial 3D systems (priced above 
US$5,000). The Wohlers report 2021 shows that 
sales in 2020 dropped by 8.4% to 21,000 units, 
compared to an average growth in unit sales of 
industrial systems of 20.7% during the previous three years,. The demand for large 
printers has, in part, been substituted by demand for 3D desktop printers which are 
continually declining in price.  
The plunge in demand for those large, industrial printers has led to significant cost-
cutting operations within 3D printing producers and, in some cases such as Voodoo 
Manufacturing, the end of the enterprise. The smaller production capacity that results 
from this means that supply constraints may curb the recovery in the near future. 
In 2020, the revenue associated with materials that 3D printers' need increased by 9.9%, 
the Wohlers Report shows.  This indicates that the stagnation of investments in industrial 
3D printers is not accompanied by a proportional decline in products made with 3D 
printers. 
Long-run gain of Covid-19: an impulse for adoption of 3D printing 
The pandemic has shown how vulnerable international supply chains are to disruption. 
The unanticipated shortages in the supply of intermediate products have led to sudden 
unwanted cutbacks or the temporary standstill of production in various industries, not 
just in eye-catching markets such as automotive. According to a survey by Euler Hermes 
in the last quarter of 2020, sectors like Machinery & Equipment, IT, Tech, Telecoms, and 
Energy & Utility suffered even more severe disruption than the automotive sector. The 
US stands out here with most companies experiencing ‘severe’ disruption in 2020 (26%). 
The pandemic has caused supply chain disruptions leading to shortages of various 
intermediate and final products. 3D printing has come to the rescue in some of these 
cases. The ease with which 3D printers can switch from producing one product to 
producing a totally different one makes it easy for them to resolve unserviced demand.  
The interruption of supply has triggered discussions in boardrooms on how to increase 
the resilience of supply chains. Thoughts naturally turn to diversifying suppliers and 
increasing inventories, but that is easier said than done, as shown in this ING report for 
electronics, automotive and textiles industries. 
“Due to the pandemic, revenue growth 
dropped to 7.5% but that compares 
favourably to the previous recession”

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Covid-19 could be the shock that many CEOs 
need in order to overcome their fear thresholds 
for new technologies. People working in the 3D 
printing industry consider the fear threshold for 
new technologies one of the obstacles for the 
wider application of 3D printing, according to ING’s 2017 study. Of course, it remains to 
be seen how strong this effect will be in future years.  
In his 3D printing consultancy work, Joris Peels notes clearly that the role 3D printing has 
been playing in solving the supply shortages during the Covid-19 crisis has changed the 
attitude of companies towards 3D printing: ”Before the pandemic, most companies 
would order a printer for experimenting and it would usually take a long time before 3D 
printing would subsequently be incorporated in the regular production process, if at all. 
Now that 3D printing has become much better known and trusted due to its success 
during the crisis, we are seeing a vast increase of companies that seriously consider 
integrating 3D printers in their production process. And they ask us how they can do it 
as soon as possible.” 
Waning expectations 
The share of 3D printing in worldwide manufacturing is still very small (0.1%) and since 
our 2017 report, the annual growth decreased from 29% to 21%. But the 7.5% turnover 
increase in 2020 in a shrinking global economy shows that 3D printing still has potential.  
Supply disruptions due to Covid-19 have been an opportunity for the 3D printing 
business to show its value. 3D printers stepped in when traditional machines could not 
handle the exploding demand for face masks, nasal swabs and ventilator parts. The 
American 3D printing company Carbon, for example, produced a million nasal swabs per 
week in April 2020.  
3D printing did not only step in to service extra demand for certain (pandemic-related) 
products. It also helped out in cases where supply chain disruption caused by the 
lockdowns led to more general shortages. For example, the Italian company Isinnova 
started to design and 3D print valves that were in short supply. 
This experience is, according to consultants, 
contributing to a decrease in the 'threshold 
fear' in boardrooms for investing in 3D printing. 
The underlying growth of 3D printing is also 
being driven by rising demand for customised 
products; printing facilitates customisation because the marginal cost of making product 
variations is virtually zero. We expect the 3D printing business to grow 25-30% per 
annum until 2040. 
But industry experts are less optimistic than a few years ago that production with 
printers will any time soon be fast enough to make the printing of standardised 
products, such as binbags and bottles, economically viable. This means that the 
expectation that 3D printers will become the dominant production method in 
manufacturing needs to be tempered significantly. 
 
 
“Covid-19 could be the shock that many 
CEOs need to overcome their fear 
thresholds for new technologies” 
“Expectations that 3D printers will 
become the dominant production method 
need to be tempered significantly”

3D Printing August 2021 
 
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3D printing's weakness: Economics 
The exact share of 3D printed goods in worldwide manufacturing isn't known. But for 
some niche markets, notably in dentistry, medical devices and hearing aids, we know 
that it amounts to 75 to 100% of total production. These markets are rather small, 
however. 
According to Wohlers Associates’ annual report on 3D printing, global revenue of the 3D 
printing business was US$12.8 bn in 2020, which is 0.1% of the global value-added of 
manufacturing. If we assume that raw materials used by the 3D printing business make 
up around 15 cents on every dollar of revenue in the 3D industry, the share of value-
added of the 3D printing industry in manufacturing value-added terms is even a bit 
smaller at 0.085%. 
No chance that 3D printing will become the dominant means of 
production any time soon 
So, notwithstanding the dominance in some niche markets, the quantitative importance 
of 3D printing for total manufacturing is still very small. The three industry experts that 
we spoke to in researching this report all rule out the possibility that 3D printing will be 
the dominant production method in overall manufacturing any time soon. 3D printing 
designer Janne Kyttanen says, "it is difficult to imagine 3D printing beating high-velocity 
manufacturing technologies like laser cutting and injection moulding”. 
Joris Peels, 3D printing consultant, explains: “3D printers have to make products, also 
intermediates, layer by layer. It is unlikely that this will one day be faster than a 
traditional mould that can stamp out intermediate products at a very high velocity”. 
Terry Wohlers of consultancy firm Wohlers 
Associates, which has been collecting and 
analysing data on 3D printing on an annual 
basis for the last 26 years, points to the current 
limitations regarding the sort of products that are economically viable for 3D Printing. 
“The use of 3D printing for series production is most suitable when manufacturing 
volumes are relatively low, and product value is relatively high”. 
This makes many mass-produced products for the near future unsuitable for 3D printing. 
Wohlers expects that the number of applications will expand as machine, material, and 
operational costs are driven down. Kyttanen, however, adds that “although 3D printing 
3D printing potential 
3D printing is the dominant production technique in some niche markets, but to 
become a widely used method in manufacturing, further technological 
breakthroughs are needed to drive down costs. There is no sign of that happening 
soon. But other drivers of growth make us believe that 3D printing could make up 
5% of all manufactured products around 2040 
“Many mass-produced products are still 
unsuitable for 3D printing”

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can in some cases replace the current production method of existing products, we must 
realise that other technologies also develop, getting more automated and digitised”.  
Benefiting from the popularity of customised products 
The success of 3D printing in markets like hearing aids shows that this production 
technique has a comparative advantage in making products with a complex shape. It 
also shows that 3D printing is well equipped to produce custom-made products. 
Contrary to traditional production methods, the costs of adjusting the product are very 
low. Customised products are, for example, to be found in footwear, eyewear and 
jewellery. These are attractive markets for 3D printing companies that produce products 
for third parties. 
A 3D printed sports shoe 
 
Profit margins and customisation 
Profit margins are much higher in markets with customised products than in markets for 
standardised products produced en masse. 
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD, concludes in its 
World Investment Report 2020 that given the current state of 3D printing technologies, 
"the main limit to the disruptive power of 3D printing is its technical and economic 
feasibility". Looking forward, UNCTAD concludes that "unlike digitalisation and 
automation, which are expected to affect all industries to some degree, 3D printing in 
2030 is likely to be still confined to selected industries or niche segments". 
For Kyttanen, the true gamechanger is that "3D printing enables the production of new 
products and services". It remains to be seen to what extent 3D printing can service 
notional demand for new products. 
Untapped potential 
Despite only a small chance that 3D printing will one day be the dominant production 
method in manufacturing, industry experts see a possibility that 3D printing will grow 
significantly in the years to come. 
Terry Wohlers expects a yearly average growth rate of 27% until 2030, which would 
result in a market turnover of $115 bn in 2030. That is ninefold the size of the market 
today and would be close to 1% of global manufacturing. Wohlers expects that one day 
3D printing will be able to make up at least 5% of manufacturing. With a continuation of 
the yearly growth rate of 27%, it will take around 20 years to reach that point (2040).

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The growth forecast of 27% is somewhat higher than the average growth in the three 
years preceding the crisis (25%), but we consider 27% plausible for various reasons: 
• Threshold fear diminishing 
Threshold fear has traditionally been an impediment to growth in 3D printing. We expect 
this to diminish significantly since 3D printing has proved itself during the pandemic, 
coming to the rescue during supply shortages. As we noted earlier, consultants have 
been noticing that customers are now in a ‘fast forward’ mood when it comes to 
integrating 3D printers into their production process. We think that the upward influence 
on investment in 3D printing from this tendency could even be more than two 
percentage points. 
• Lack of suitable materials is being overcome 
The lack of sufficient materials has been a bottleneck in the past but according to 
industry experts, innovations in construction and polymers are solving this problem. A 
wider range of materials is on its way and will incentivise more companies to work with 
the new technology. 
• New adopters are entering the market 
Our expectation that the share of 3D printed products in worldwide manufactured 
products will continue to increase is also based on the fact that we see many new 
companies and sometimes new industries starting to work with 3D printers. For 
example, the US military has started to use 3D printers to make shelters for missile 
launchers. The power and energy industry has also adopted 3D printers in recent years. 
There is no good reason to expect that this will suddenly stop. According to the Wohlers 
report 2021, The total amount of suppliers of industrial 3D printers has reached 228 in 
2020. This is seven times as many as in 2012.  
Only three years ago, the eight largest suppliers still had a combined market share of 
14%, falling to 9% last year and in line with this, 2020 showed a decline in turnover of 
the big eight while smaller suppliers delivered an increase in revenue, the Wohlers Report 
2021 shows. We see the increase of suppliers as an indicator for increased competition 
which usually results in more downward price pressure. This is positive for demand and 
hence the growth of the 3D printing market. 
• It's all about adaptability 
The fact that 3D printing can produce customised products much cheaper than 
traditional machines means that 3D printing will benefit from the rising popularity of 
customised products. About one in six consumers has at least once acquired a 
customised product. 
Taking all this into account, we think that Wohlers' expectation of a future share of 5% 
of 3D printed goods in total manufacturing is realistic. We think that it could be reached 
by around 2040. 
In our 2017 study on 3D printing, we looked at the possibility of 3D printed products 
making up one quarter to one-half of all manufactured products. This scenario can only 
become a reality if mass production with 3D printing becomes economically 
competitive. For now, however, there's no indication that we are close to such a 
breakthrough.

3D Printing August 2021 
 
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Reshoring a stimulus for 3D printing, but don’t expect huge effects 
The disruption of supply chains is not only a hot topic in boardrooms but also in public 
policy debates. In developed countries, calls from politicians to bring production home 
(reshoring) or moving production to countries nearby (nearshoring), have been 
increasing over the last decade. Covid-19 has only made those calls louder.  
The ability to secure supplies of medical products has been a problem since the outbreak 
of the virus. But calls for reshoring should also be seen in light of the decreasing 
popularity of globalisation, the reduced support for free trade, and the new global 
geopolitical order which is characterised more by economic rivalry than international 
cooperation. While China and the US are at the heart of this rivalry, it has also 
stimulated calls for strategic autonomy and the protection of technological know-how in 
other Western regions such as the EU. 
Reshoring is about more than economics 
In the public debate, the issue of whether to reshore production or not is no longer 
purely an economic one dominated by cost-benefit analyses for companies. Other 
movements, like criticism of the contribution of cross border supply chains to global 
warming, effects on local employment and violations of workers' rights and tax evasion 
also add to the calls for switching from complex global value chains to more 'local for 
local' production through reshoring. 
What does this mean for 3D printing? Well, 3D printing facilitates reshoring because 
printers use less labour and therefore increase the economic viability of reshoring 
production to developed economies where labour costs are relatively high. 
Bring it home? 
How big will the influence of reshoring be on the use of 3D printers? First, it should be 
stressed that although reshoring has been a buzzword for more than a decade now, 
actual reshoring has been very limited. According to Dachs et al (2019), only 4.3% of the 
2,450 firms surveyed in eight European countries were engaged in bringing activities 
back home between 2007-2015. 
Having said that, the pandemic could lead to a 
significant increase in interest in reshoring. 
Covid-19 has brought about widespread supply 
chain troubles. No fewer than 94% of the 
companies that Euler Hermes surveyed across six industries and five countries reported 
supply chain problems in 2020. 
But it should be said that it is rather questionable whether reshoring is a solution for 
supply chain disruptions. After all, bringing production of intermediate products back 
home is, in itself, no guarantee that interruptions in the production process can be 
avoided. A pandemic or other natural disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, can 
happen back home, as well. 
So, it comes as no surprise that, according to the Euler Hermes survey at the end of 
2020, the percentage of the interviewed companies that are considering bringing 
production back home in response to recent supply chain troubles is less than 15%. This 
is a relatively low percentage given that more than half of the surveyed companies are 
thinking about moving their production sites or are looking for new suppliers. This could 
mean that companies are rather looking at diversifying their suppliers geographically  
than bringing all production back home. In this way the risk of supply chain disruption  
can be diminished.  
In an overview of recent empirical studies, the economics department of the European 
Commission also stresses the small importance of reshoring thus far and points out that, 
“The pandemic could lead to an increase 
in interest in reshoring and 3D printing”

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although increasing, reshoring from China and other Asian countries has been less 
frequent than reshoring within the EU. 
Protectionism a potential push for 3D printing 
Reshoring might become necessary for companies if it becomes increasingly popular 
among politicians, leading governments to change the playing field. Tariff increases or 
increases of other trade barriers could change the relative costs of producing in 
developed countries and thereby force companies to relocate production sites back 
home or to countries that have a free trade agreement with the home country. 
In response to the higher tariffs that the US imposed on imports from China, we have 
seen various companies relocating. Some of them back to the US, some of them to 
countries like Vietnam and Thailand, according to the Financial Times. 
For now, the conclusion is that most companies do not consider reshoring as the best 
answer to supply chain disruptions. But the more they become acquainted with labour-
saving production methods like 3D printing, the more it could become an interesting 
option, especially if politicians step up protectionist policies. 
Thus, the development of reshoring plans will be important to watch.

3D Printing August 2021 
 
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The re-bundling of the production process 
3D printing can hurt world trade in two ways. Firstly, 3D printing usually means the re-
bundling of production phases, because 3D printers can make the (intermediate) 
product as a whole. So, it shortens the supply chain leading to less trade in 
intermediates. And as far as 3D printing is part of a strategy to produce closer to the 
customer - given the rising popularity of local for local - it leads to less cross border trade 
as well. 
Economically, 3D printing is mainly used as a 
production method for customised or complex-
shaped products. Experience shows that it is 
not a given that all customised 3D printed 
products are made close to the consumer. In 
an interesting Worldbank study, Freund et al (2018), showed that in the case of hearing 
devices and dental crowns, 3D printing has not led to localisation as production only 
takes place in a few countries.  
According to this research, the lack of skilled labour in many countries is an important 
reason that the production of, for example, hearing devices isn't done in the countries 
where they're used. The thought that with the arrival of relatively cheap and small 3D 
desktop printers, dentists would all start printing crowns themselves, has not 
materialised. At least not yet. So, the re-bundling of the production processes does not 
in all cases lead to proportionally less trade.  
Customisation is a key part of 3D printed products 
Secondly, hearing aids and dental crowns are customised products. Customisation 
usually gives the supplier of the product pricing power, meaning they can more easily 
pass on the costs of, for example, transport to the buyer. 
A third reason why the cost of transport has apparently not been prohibitive for 
centralising production in a few countries is that the likes of hearing aids and dental 
crowns are light and small. That makes them relatively cheap to transport. 
Of course, not all 3D printed products are light 
and small. 3D printing is, for example, used a 
lot for making metal products. But since 
roughly three-quarters of all exported products 
are transported by container ships and the 
3D printing is a threat to world 
trade but its impact is still limited 
The share of 3D printed goods in global manufacturing could rise to 5% over the 
next two decades. That is a significant increase from the current share of 0.1%, 
but much lower than in the two scenarios in our 2017 report. The effect on world 
trade is more subdued as well, at -4.5%. This implies, on average, 0.2 percentage 
points less trade growth per year 
“The re-bundling of the production 
processes does not in all cases lead to 
proportionally less trade” 
“A product’s size is more important than 
its weight when gauging the effect of 3D 
printed products on trade and transport”

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costs of that are foremost determined by the size of the product, weight is less 
important. 
Knowing that many 3D printed goods are customised goods which are usually of the 
size between a marble and a football, transport costs are often not decisive when 
choices are made regarding the location of production of three printed goods. In other 
words, it seems plausible to assume that transport costs are less determinative for the 
profit margin of 3D printed products than for those produced en mass. 
This means that the substitution of traditional production methods by 3D printers 
probably does not always translate into bringing production closer to the consumer. So 
it also doesn’t translate into less trade and transport. 
This 3D printed pedestrian bridge, recently opened in Amsterdam, shows the wider 
potential of the technology 
3D printed pedestrian bridge in Amsterdam shows that the technology is well-suited to making complex shapes 
 
Earlier, we stated that, although we recognise that forecasting the speed of the 
technological improvements of 3D printing is very hard and perhaps not a task for 
economists. But we feel comfortable with a rise in the market share of 3D printing, in 
total manufacturing, to about 5% in the long run. Calculations show that, given a slight 
increase in the growth rate of the 3D printing business, this share can be reached by 
around 2040. 
A manufacturing share of 5% for 3D printed products by 2040 would have a permanent 
downward effect on the size of world trade of around 4.5 percentage points of global 
trade. That is if all printed goods were to be made close to the consumer. But keeping 
the experiences of dental aids and hearing devices in mind, the effect of switching to 3D 
printing on world trade will be somewhat lower, around 3% to 4% for goods. Taking into 
account the part of traded services that are linked to the goods trade, the damage to 
trade adds up to 4.5%  
Concluding remarks 
Currently, 3D printing is economically not competitive for producing uniform products en 
mass such as rubbish bags, bottles, plugs and so on. As long as this is the case, 3D 
printing will not lead to large changes in the complex cross border value chains that

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currently characterise the way mass products are made. Of course, further 
technological developments in 3D printers can change that, but industry experts don’t 
expect this to happen anytime soon. 
This means that 3D printed goods will in the 
short run consist mostly of customised and 
complex-shaped products made as one-offs or 
in a series of relatively low quantities  
This doesn’t mean however that there is little room for growth of the 3D business. In line 
with some industry experts, we expect that the number of applications will expand as 
machine, material, and operational costs are driven downward and customised products 
become more popular. We also think that the adoption of this technology will accelerate 
because the threshold fear is diminishing since 3D printing has proved its usefulness in a 
wide range of markets during the pandemic. 
We expect that the share of 3D printing in global manufacturing could well rise to 5% 
over the next two decades. This will have a downward influence on the growth of cross 
border trade and transport. But the effect will be less than proportional because 
transport costs are financially less important for customised products than for 
standardised ones. This makes us believe that the downward effect on trade and 
transport will be less than 5%, around 4% to 5%. 
 
 
“3D printing is economically not 
competitive for mass production”

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