Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1696588958136.pdf (Vanuatu)
Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department PMB 9054, Port Vila, Vanuatu Phone: (+678) 23866, Fax: (+678) 22310 Email: climate@meteo.gov.vu The Early Action Rainfall Watch provides a summary of recent rainfall patterns, particularly the status of the rainfall and the outlook for the coming months.

This product is issued on a monthly basis.

For more details and climate Information, contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department.
Issued: April 2020 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: Inactive Summary Rainfall Status: Whitegrass was the only station that was in Meteorological Drought in March.

From January to March 2020, accumulated rainfall in Port Vila has been lower than normal, placing the station in Meteorological Drought on a 3-month timescale.

Rainfall Outlook: Alert 1 Dry is in place for Pekoa, Bauer field, Whitegr ass and Aneityum.
This means for the next three months, chances of drier conditions occurring within these locations is slight (low).

Alert 2 Dry is in place for Por t Vila, which means, chances of experiencing drier conditions in Port Vila within the next three months is moderate (50%).

Rainfall Status and Outlook The table below provides information on rainfall status and outlook for Vanuatu.
The status refers to rainfall received over the last 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, highlighting very dry or very wet periods relative to normal.

The outlook refers to rainfall predicted for the next 3 months.

If a station is in drought warning, this indicates an increased likelihood of drought in the coming months.

Refer to Vanuatu Climate Update for more details.
Rainfall Status Period 3-month period 1-month period Months Jan 2020 — Mar 2020 March 2020 Rainfall Outlook Next 3 Months May 2020 — July 2020 n o i g e R n r e h t r o N n o i g e R n r e h t u o S Sola (1971—2020) Pekoa (1971—2020) Lamap (1961—2020) Bauerfield (1972—2020) Port Vila (1953—2020) Whitegrass (1972—2020) Aneityum (1952—2020) Rainfall Outlook Key Alert 3 Dry Alert 2 Dry Alert 1 Dry Outlook not available No Alert Alert 1 Wet Alert 2 Wet Alert 3 Wet Rainfall Status Key Meteorological Drought Drought Warning Status not available Rainfall has been extremely lower than normal Rainfall has been very much lower than normal Data not available Normal or wetter than normal Very Wet Rainfall has been extremely higher than nor- mal Climate Change Drought Projections to 2090 For the whole of Vanuatu, the overall amount of time spent in drought is expected to stay the same or slightly decrease in the future.
Droughts are expected to occur less often.

Drought length is not expected to change.

Overall, there is low confidence (‘trust’) in drought projections.

However, droughts will continue to occur including serious droughts and people still need to prepare for these events.
tt e r 3 m o n t h s I n c r e a s i n g c h a n c e o f The following table provides examples of impacts that have been associated with drought at the 1, 3, 6 and 12 month periods.

For further information and details refer to the ENSO handbook and contact the relevant government departments.

Time periods and impacts Sector/ Department Water 12-month period 6-month period 3-month period 1-month period Large water sources e.g.
large rivers, lakes.

Groundwater supply systems affected, water level drops, hand dug wells dry up and groundwater sources become saline.

Dams, bores, industrial tanks, wet lands, medium rivers.

Rainwater catchments will be heavily affected including large rainwater tanks, surface water affected with reduced water level.

Water quantity and water quality is further reduced.

Small to medium water tanks, small rivers.

Rainwater catchments will be affected & water level reduced.
Water quality in wells and tanks reduced in small islands and west side of large islands.

Agriculture and freshwater fisheries Large fruit trees, (e.g.

coconuts, coffee, mango, guava, orange, mandarin), wild yam.

Rice, sugarcane, banana, wheat, root crops affected e.g., mature yam, Fiji taro, manioc.

Banana, cassava, new yam, water taro, English potato, kumala, vanilla, young kava, apple banana, aquaculture.

Livestock Forestry Environment Health Loss of small livestock (poultry).
Loss of small trees (spread of insects and diseases attacks), sandalwood seedlings, bushfires.

Loss of large livestock (pigs, goats and cattle), farmed and wild freshwater fish and prawns.

Loss large trees (due to increase spread and intensity of insect attacks) Loss of forest canopy affects quality and quantity of water, bushfire.

Streams/lakes & any water bodies affected, introduction of alien/ invasive species, landsides on new volcanic slopes.

Bushfire, insect pests and Diseases.


Loss of habitat, migration of endemics/species, degradation of landscape quality, loss of biodiversity/vegetation (extinction), introduction of alien/ invasive species, secondary impacts, e.g., resettlements (2015) Health - further deterioration in human health (e.g.

cases of cholera appear, severe unbalance diet leading to death, cough & staunting, mental stress, diarrhoea, increased cases of skin diseases.
Health - Increase in migration due to water and food shortages.

Deterioration in adult human health (poor lactation, malnutrition, cases of typhoid, dengue, malaria, increase in skin, respiratory and eye diseases).

Health - Deterioration in young and old human health (malnutrition, poor lactation, dehydration, skin disease and diarrhoea cases).

Education - affects schools for children due to reduced water supply e.g.

schools close half day.

Education - school close.


Socio-economic - less income/ less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building, reduced river transport on large rivers, women migrating to get water.

Increased chances of traditional houses burn down, reduced building materials.

Education - Affect education and children attendance, increase in social disruptions (e.g.
reduced school hours) unbalance diet (relying on rice, tin fish & noodles), mental stress, diarrhoea, increased cases of skin diseases.

Socio-economic - Unbalance diet/ less vegetables, additional labor on children & women, traveling distance to collect water, increase in psychological/mental stress, stealing.

Socio-economic - Increase in social disruptions (e.g.

financial stress, assets being sold, crime).

Social obligations being postponed.


less income/less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building.

Food prices increase, reduced income.

Some negative social disruption but also some positive impacts e.g.

formation of women's networks.

Small vegetables (e.g.

tomato, lettuce, Chinese cabbage) and island cabbage on small islands and drier side of larger islands (W to N).

Pasture will also be affected.


Grassland Increase in gender based violence, malnutrition in children, increase non-communicable diseases.

Disable persons due to higher water needs, increase discrimination.

Tourism Accommodation: Toilet/Shower, Swimming Pool, Restaurants, Flower/ garden, Water, Activities, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Water, Picnic, Waterfall Infrastructure Energy Airline & transport industry affected, agriculture and fishermen activities affected as well as duty free shops.
Drop in visitor numbers, reducing employment, reduce in income for business owners.

Increase water temperature affecting snorkeling, reduce in the water level affect visitors to river activities, drier river level, reduced in income, reduced number of visitations.

Poor quantity and quality supply of water, inconsistency supply, affect availability of vegetables and others for hotels, flowers and plans drying up.
Road works thrive on drought as rainfall disturbs & damages roads & infrastructure (bridges & culverts) Infrastructure that depends on water in hydro-power, during drought, river/water level drops, affects generation of electricity.

Sola energy companies thrive on droughts.

Contact Us: Call: (+678 23866), Email: climate@meteo.gov.vu, visit: vmgd.gov.vu