Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1696588849186.pdf (Vanuatu)
Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department PMB 9054, Port Vila, Vanuatu Phone: (+678) 23866, Fax: (+678) 22310 Email: climate@meteo.gov.vu The Early Action Rainfall Watch provides a summary of recent rainfall patterns, particularly the status of the rainfall and the outlook for the coming months.

This product is issued on a monthly basis.

For more details and climate Information, contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department.
Issued: October 2021 Summary Rainfall Status: As the countr y pr ogr esses thr ough its dr y season, drier than normal conditions have been experienced in most of the stations in the past 3—6 months, placing Whitegrass and Aneityum in Meteorological Drought during this time period.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status is La Nina ALERT.

Rainfall Outlook: The outlook for November shows a high chance (Alert 3 Wet) of higher than normal rainfall for the Sanma and Penama province.
The outlook for November to January 2022 shows a high chance (Alert 3 Wet) of higher than normal rainfall for the whole country.

Rainfall Status The table below provides information on rainfall status for Vanuatu.

The status refers to rainfall received over the last 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, highlighting very dry or very wet periods relative to normal.
Rainfall Status 12-month period 6-month period 3-month period October 2020 — September 2021 April 2021 — September 2021 July 2021 — September 2021 1-month period September 2021 Period Months Sola (1971—2021) Pekoa (1971—2021) Lamap (1961—2021) Bauerfield (1972—2021) Port Vila (1953—2021) White grass (1972—2021) Aneityum (1952—2021 Rainfall Status Key Meteorological Drought Rainfall has been extremely lower than normal Drought Warning Drought Watch Rainfall has been very much lower than normal Rainfall has been slightly lower than normal Status not available Data not available Normal or wetter than normal Very Wet Rainfall has been extremely higher than normal Rainfall Outlook The table below provides information on rainfall outlook for Vanuatu.
The outlook refers to rainfall predicted for the next 1 to 3 months.

If Alert 3 Wet (blue shade) falls over an area, this indicates there is a high chance for wetter than average conditions.

If Alert 1 Wet falls over an area, this indicates there is only a slight chance to experience wetter than average conditions.

Same principle applies to drier than average conditions (brown shades).

Refer to Vanuatu Climate Update for more details.


Issued: May 2021 Rainfall Status Climate Change Drought Projections to 2090 For the whole of Vanuatu, the overall amount of time spent in drought is expected to stay the same or slightly decrease in the future.

Droughts are expected to occur less often.

Drought length is not expected to change.

Overall, there is low confidence (‘trust’) in drought projections.
However, droughts will continue to occur including serious droughts and people still need to prepare for these events.

The following table provides examples of impacts that have been associated with drought at the 1, 3, 6 and 12 month periods.

For further information and details refer to the ENSO handbook and contact the relevant government departments.

Time periods and impacts Sector/ Department Water 12-month period 6-month period 3-month period 1-month period Large water sources e.g.
large rivers, lakes.

Groundwater supply systems affected, water level drops, hand dug wells dry up and groundwater sources become saline.

Dams, bores, industrial tanks, wet lands, medium rivers.

Rainwater catchments will be heavily affected including large rainwater tanks, surface water affected with reduced water level.

Water quantity and water quality is further reduced.

Small to medium water tanks, small rivers.

Rainwater catchments will be affected & water level reduced.
Water quality in wells and tanks reduced in small islands and west side of large islands.

Agriculture and freshwater fisheries Large fruit trees, (e.g.

coconuts, coffee, mango, guava, orange, mandarin), wild yam.

Rice, sugarcane, banana, wheat, root crops affected e.g., mature yam, Fiji taro, manioc.

Banana, cassava, new yam, water taro, English potato, kumala, vanilla, young kava, apple banana, aquaculture.

Livestock Forestry Environment Health Loss of small livestock (poultry).
Loss of small trees (spread of insects and diseases attacks), sandalwood seedlings, bushfires.

Loss of large livestock (pigs, goats and cattle), farmed and wild freshwater fish and prawns.

Loss large trees (due to increase spread and intensity of insect attacks) Loss of forest canopy affects quality and quantity of water, bushfire.

Streams/lakes & any water bodies affected, introduction of alien/ invasive species, landsides on new volcanic slopes.

Bushfire, insect pests and Diseases.


Loss of habitat, migration of endemics/species, degradation of landscape quality, loss of biodiversity/vegetation (extinction), introduction of alien/ invasive species, secondary impacts, e.g., resettlements (2015) Health - further deterioration in human health (e.g.

cases of cholera appear, severe unbalance diet leading to death, cough & staunting, mental stress, diarrhoea, increased cases of skin diseases.
Health - Increase in migration due to water and food shortages.

Deterioration in adult human health (poor lactation, malnutrition, cases of typhoid, dengue, malaria, increase in skin, respiratory and eye diseases).

Health - Deterioration in young and old human health (malnutrition, poor lactation, dehydration, skin disease and diarrhoea cases).

Education - affects schools for children due to reduced water supply e.g.

schools close half day.

Education - school close.


Socio-economic - less income/ less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building, reduced river transport on large rivers, women migrating to get water.

Increased chances of traditional houses burn down, reduced building materials.

Education - Affect education and children attendance, increase in social disruptions (e.g.
reduced school hours) unbalance diet (relying on rice, tin fish & noodles), mental stress, diarrhoea, increased cases of skin diseases.

Socio-economic - Unbalance diet/ less vegetables, additional labor on children & women, traveling distance to collect water, increase in psychological/mental stress, stealing.

Socio-economic - Increase in social disruptions (e.g.

financial stress, assets being sold, crime).

Social obligations being postponed.


less income/less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building.

Food prices increase, reduced income.

Some negative social disruption but also some positive impacts e.g.

formation of women's networks.

Small vegetables (e.g.

tomato, lettuce, Chinese cabbage) and island cabbage on small islands and drier side of larger islands (W to N).

Pasture will also be affected.

Grassland Increase in gender based violence, increase non-communicable diseases.
Disable persons due to higher water needs, increase discrimination.

Tourism Accommodation: Toilet/Shower, Swimming Pool, Restaurants, Flower/ garden, Water, Activities, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Water, Picnic, Waterfall Infrastructure Energy Airline & transport industry affected, agriculture and fishermen activities affected as well as duty free shops.

Drop in visitor numbers, reducing employment, reduce in income for business owners.
Increase water temperature affecting snorkeling, reduce in the water level affect visitors to river activities, drier river level, reduced in income, reduced number of visitations.

Poor quantity and quality supply of water, inconsistency supply, affect availability of vegetables and others for hotels, flowers and plans drying up.
Road works thrive on drought as rainfall disturbs & damages roads & infrastructure (bridges & culverts) Infrastructure that depends on water in hydro-power, during drought, river/water level drops, affects generation of electricity.

Sola energy companies thrive on droughts.

Contact Us: Call: (+678 23866), Email: climate@meteo.gov.vu, visit: vmgd.gov.vu