Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1696588904033.pdf (Vanuatu)
Issued: 08/08/2019 The Early Action Rainfall Watch provides a summay of recent rainfall patterns, particularly the status of the rainfall and the outlook for the coming months.

This product will be issued on a monthly basis.

For more details and climate information contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department.

Summary  ENSO status: ENSO-Neutral state.

 Rainfall Status: Status for Pekoa, Bauerfield and Whitegrass was Meteorological Drought at a 3-month timescale.
Pekoa maintained this status at the 12-month timescale.

 Rainfall Outlook: For the coming three month period (September – November 2019), Alert 3 Dry is in place for Pekoa, Bauerfield, Port Vila and Whietrgass.

Rainfall Status and Outlook The table below provides information on rainfall status and outlook for Vanuatu.

The status refers to rainfall received over the last 3, 6 and 12 months, highlighting very dry or very wet periods relative to normal.
The outlook refers to rainfall predicted for the next 3 months as well as the Dry Season.

If a station is in drought warning, this indicates an increased likelihood of drought in the coming months.

Refer to Vanuatu Climate Update for more details.
Period Months 12-month period August 2018 – July 2019 Rainfall Status 6-month period February 2018 – July 2019 3-month period May 2019 – July 2019 Rainfall Outlook Next 3 months Dry Season Sep to Nov 2019 May to Oct 2019 n r e h t r o N i n o g e R n r e h t u o S i n o g e R Sola (1971-2019) Pekoa (1971-2019) Lamap (1961-2019) Bauerfield (1972-2019) Port Vila (1953-2019) Whitegrass (1972-2019) Aneityum (1952-2019) Alert 1 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 2 Dry Alert 1 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 3 Dry Alert 2 Dry Alert 3 Dry Status Key Meteorological Drought Drought Warning Drought Watch Status not available Normal or wetter than normal Very Wet Percentile 10th 25th 40th 90th Outlook Key Alert 3 Dry Alert 2 Dry Alert 1 Dry Outlook not available No Alert Alert 1 Wet Alert 2 Wet Alert 3 Wet Increasing chance of drier 3 months Increasing chance of wetter 3 months Time periods and impacts The following table provides examples of impacts that have been associated with drought at the 3, 6 and 12 month periods.
For further information and details refer to the ENSO handbook and contact the relevant government departments.

Sector/ Department Water 12-month period 6-month period 3-month period large water sources e.g.

large rivers, lakes Groundwater supply systems affected, water level drops, hand dug wells dry up and groundwater sources become saline.
Water quantity dropped and quality affacted dams, bores, industrial tanks, wet lands, medium rivers Rainwater catchments will be heavily affected including rainwater tanks, surface water affected with reduced water level Water quantity and water quality is further reduced large domestic water tanks, small rivers.

Rainwater catchments will be affected & water level reduced.

Water quantity reduced and water quality affected Agriculture large trees (e.g.
coconuts, coffee, mango, guava) rice, sugarcane, wheat, root crops affected e.g taro, manioc.
pasture, banana, cassava, yam, taro, english potato, kumala, vanilla, chinese cabbage, lettuce Livestock Forestry Fisheries Environment Loss of large forest – further increase of forest susceptibility to wildfire, insect pests and disases loss of habitat, migration of endermics/species, degradation of landscape & quality, loss of biodiversity/vegetation (extinction), introduction of alien/invasive species, secondary impacts e.g resettlements (2015) loss of large livestock (pigs, goats and cattle) Loss large trees (due to increase spread and intensity of insect attacks) Loss of forest canopy affects quality and quantity of water.
Increase forest susceptibility to wildfire Increase in migration of deep sea fish and increase loss of coral nd reef fish streams/lakes & any water bodies affected, introduction of alien/invasive species loss of small livestock (poultry) Loss of small trees (spread of inserts and diseases attacks) Loss of aquaculture Coral reef bleaching Migration of deep sea Fish grassland, bushfires, plants and vegetables affected Health Educaton Socio-economic Health - futher deterioration in human health (e.g.
cases of cholera appear, severe unbalance diet leading to death, cough & staunting, mental stress, diahorrea, skin disease case increases.

Health - Increase in migration due to water and food shortages.

Deterioration in human health (poor lactation, cases of typhoid, increase in respiratory and eye disease), Education - school close Socio-econdomic - less income/less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building, reduced river transport on large rivers.
Education - Affect educations and children attendance, increase in social distruption (e.g.

reduced school hours) unbalance diet (relying on rice, tinfish & noodles), mental stress, diahorrea, skin disease case increases, Socio-econdomic - Increase in social distruption (e.g.

financial stress, assets being sold, crime, gender based violence).

Social obligations being postponed.


less income/less production of local produces, bush fires destroying building Drop in visitors number, reducing the number of employments, reduce in income for business owners.

Increase water temperature affecting snokeling, reduce in the water level affect visitors to river activities, driers river level, reduce in income, reduce number of visitions Airline & transport industry affected, agriculture and fishermen activities affected as well as duty free shops.
Tourism Accommodation: Toilet/Shower Swimming Pool Resturants Flower/garden Water Activities Snokling Kayaking Water Picinc Waterfall Fishing Health - Deterioration in human health (malnutrition, poor lactation, increase in sunburn, dehydration and diarrhoea cases), Education - affects schools for children due to water supply, Socio-economic - Unbalance diet/less vegetables, additional labor on children & women, traveling distance to collect water, increase domestic violence, pressure on women & children, increase in psychological/mental stress, skin diseases Poor quality quantity and quality supply of water, inconsistency supply, affect availability of vegetables and others for hotels, flowers and plans drying up.
Infrustructure Road works thrive on drought as rainfall disturbs & damages roads & infrastructure (bridges & culverts).

Energy Infrastructure that depends on water in hydro-power, during drought, river/water level drops, affects generation of electricity Vanuatu rainfall monitoring stations For furt her information please cont act .
The Director Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department Mail: Privat e Mail Bag 9054, Port Vila, Efat e Phone: 678 23866, Fax: 678 22310 Website: http://w w w .vmgd.gov.vu Email: climat e@met eo.gov.vu