Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697810835332.pdf (Mauritius)
Quarterly Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) First Quarter 2015 1.

Introduction The Index of Industrial Production shows the evolution of the volume of output of the Industrial Sector which covers “Mining and quarrying”, “Manufacturing”, “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply” and “Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities” and accounts for around 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The index compiled on a quarterly basis is one of the most important industrial short-term indicators, which aims at measuring, on a quarterly basis, the changes in the volume of industrial output.

2.

Contents of the publication This issue of “Economic and Social Indicators” presents the quarterly indices for the first quarter of 2008 to first quarter of 2015 with weights based on the results of the 2007 Census of Economic Activities.
The indices are given separately for the four sections, namely, “Mining and quarrying”, “Manufacturing”, “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply” and “Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities”.

Within “Manufacturing”, estimates by broad group, namely Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE), Non-EOE and “Sugar milling” as well as by main industrial grouping are given.
Wherever possible, the annual averages of the quarterly indices have been worked out and included in the tables.

It is to be noted that, due to incomplete data, indices for the first quarter of 2015 are provisional and published at section and broad group level only.

They are therefore subject to revision in future issues of the Economic and Social Indicators on QIIP.

The published indices are not seasonally adjusted.


The user is therefore advised to base comparisons for a particular quarter of a year on the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The objectives of the QIIP, data sources and methodology used in the compilation of the index as well as the limitations of the index are given at annex.

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3.

The overall index - Industrial Sector In the first quarter of 2015, the overall index of industrial production decreased by 17.9% compared to the previous quarter and expanded by 2.7% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.

In the year ending first quarter 2015, i.e.

second quarter 2014 to first quarter 2015 real industrial output went up by 3.2%.
This is explained mainly by expansions in the real output of “Manufacturing” (+3.2%), “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply” (+3.9%) and “Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities” (+2.6%) partly offset by a contraction of 1.4% in the output of “Mining and quarrying”.
2 Chart 1 : Industrial sector- Quarterly index of production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 Indices Trend Year and Quarter Within “Manufacturing”, the growth of 3.2% was due to growths of 0.8%, 1.9% and 4.2% in “Sugar milling”, “EOE” and “Non-EOE” sectors respectively.

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4.

Changes by section 4.1 Mining and quarrying “Mining and quarrying” comprises activities relating to quarrying of decorative stones, sand and salt extraction as well as stone crushing and represents only 2% of the output of the industrial sector.

In the first quarter of 2015, real output contracted by 34.1% compared to the previous quarter and expanded by 2.1% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.

In year ending first quarter 2015, production dropped by 1.4% (Table 1).
Chart 2 : Mining and Quarrying - Quarterly index of Production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 110.0 95.0 80.0 65.0 50.0 Indices Trend Year and Quarter 3 135.0 125.0 115.0 105.0 95.0 85.0 4.2 Manufacturing Manufacturing output, which covers the production of a wide range of goods, represented 89% of the output of the industrial sector in 2014.
For analysis purposes, “Manufacturing” is broken down into the following broad groups:  Sugar milling representing around 2% of manufacturing output  EOE (39%)  Non–EOE (59%) Chart 3 : Manufacturing - Quarterly index of production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 Indices Trend Year and Quarter Chart 4 : % growth in manufacturing output in year ending first quarter 2015 6.0 8.0 Manufacturing output in the first quarter of 2015 went down by 20.3% compared to the previous quarter and expanded by 2.5% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014 (Table1).
In the year ending first quarter 2015, real output expanded by 3.2%.

This is explained by expansions of 0.8%, 1.9% and 4.2% in “Sugar Milling”, “EOE” and “Non-EOE” sectors respectively.

The performances of the “EOE” and the “Non-EOE excluding Sugar Milling” by detailed industry group up to fourth quarter 2014 are analysed separately in Section 5.
Total Manufacturing Sugar milling EOE 4.0 2.0 0.0 Non-EOE 4.3 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply” accounts for around 7.2% of the output of the industrial sector.

In the first quarter of 2015, real output of this sector registered a positive growth of 6.9% compared to the previous quarter, and a growth of 3.3% was noted when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.
In the year ending first quarter 2015, it went up by 3.9% (Table 1).

Chart 5 : Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning - Quarterly index of production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 Indices Trend 145.0 135.0 125.0 115.0 105.0 95.0 85.0 Year and quarter 4 4.4 Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities “Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities” accounts for around 2% of the output of the industrial sector.
In the first quarter of 2015, real output of this sector grew by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.0% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.

In year ending first quarter 2015, an expansion of 2.6% has been noted (Table 1).

Chart 6 : Water supply; sewerage, waste management & remediation activities - Quarterly index of industrial production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 Indices Trend 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 Year and quarter 5.
Changes by broad group 5.1 EOE Real output of the EOE went down by 4.3% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 and grew by 2.6% when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.

In the year ending first quarter 2015, output in the EOE grew by 1.9% (Table1).

Chart 7: EOE - Quarterly index of Production, Q1 2008- Q1 2015 Indices Trend 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 5 Lower level indices for the first quarter of 2015 are not yet available.
However, an indication of the annual performance at sub group levels can be obtained by comparing indices available for year 2014 to those for year 2013 (Table 3).

Real output of “Wearing apparel”, the most important industrial grouping within the EOE, expanded by 1.5% while that of “Textiles” contracted by 1.7%.

These two sub-groups account for 68% of the total weight allocated to the EOE.
Positive growths of 4.9%, 5.0% and 5.2% have been observed in “Food products”, “Computer, electronic and optical products” and “Other manufacturing” respectively, while a negative growth of 7.1% was noted in the “Jewellery, bijouterie & related articles n.e.c.” sector.

Details of changes at sub-group level are shown in Chart 8.
Chart 8 : EOE output - % growth in year 2014 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20. , , y r e l l e w e J c .

e .
e .

n s e l c i t r a d e t a l e r & g n i r u t c a f u n a M r e h t O 5.2 Non-EOE excluding “Sugar milling” Provisional estimate of the real output of Non-EOE establishments contracted by 27.7% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter and expanded by 2.6% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2014.

In year ending first quarter 2015, the index grew by 4.2% (Table 1).

Chart 9 : Non EOE excl.


"Sugar milling" - Quarterly index of production, Q1 2008 - Q1 2015 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 Indices Trend Year and Quarter 6 10.0 20.0 15.0 level sub-group An indication of the annual performance at is obtained by comparing the detailed indices available for year ending fourth quarter 2014 to those for year ending fourth quarter 2013 (Table 4).
Expansions were registered in “Beverages” “Textiles” (+2.3%), (+14.6%), “Printing and reproduction of recorded media” (+13.1%), and “Other Manufacturing” (+15.8%).
Contractions were noted in “Wearing Apparel” (-1.9%) “Chemicals and chemical products” (- 3.5%), “Plastic and non-metallic product” (-7.7%), “Basic metals and fabricated metal products” (-4.4%) and “Furniture” (-4.4%) while “Food products excluding sugar” registered a no growth as illustrated in chart 10. r o t c e S E O E - n o N -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 r a g u S .
l c x E d o o F Chart 10 : Non-EOE output - % growth in year 2014 & & s l a t e m c i s a B s t c u d o r p l a t e m Statistics Mauritius Ministry of Finance and Economic Development PORT LOUIS June 2015 Contact Person: 1.
Mrs. D. Ramphul (Statistician) 2.

Mrs. J. Rambojun (Senior Statistical Officer) National Accounts Unit Statistics Mauritius 5th Floor LIC Building Port Louis Tel.

: 208 1800 E-mail: cso_naccounts@govmu.org Table 1: Index of industrial production by industry group - annual and quarterly indices, Q1 2008 to Q1 2015 Year 2007 = 100 Industrial sector 05 - 33, 35-39 NSIC Rev.
2 Weight (Year 2007) Annual Quarterly 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1 % change, latest quarter over: 1 previous quarter same quarter a year ago % growth in output in year ending 1 first quarter 2015 1 Provisional -17.9 2.7 3.2 Mining and quarrying 05 - 09 20 Total 10 - 33 899 Total exc.
sugar milling 10 - 33 except -34.1 2.1 - - -20.1 2.4 3.2 Manufacturing Sugar milling -34.3 1.9 0.8 EOE 10 - 33 400 Non-EOE 10 - - -27.7 2.6 4.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water supply; sewrage, waste management and remediation 36- - 7 - Table 2: Index of industrial production by main industrial grouping of the manufacturing sector, Q1 2008 to Q3 2014 Year 2007 = 100 Total manufacturing Food Incl.
sugar Beverages Textile Wearing apparel Printing and reproduction of recorded media Chemical products Non Metallic Products Basic Metals& fabricated metals Furniture Other Main industrial grouping NSIC Rev.
2 Weight (Year 2007) Annual Quarterly 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % change, latest quarter over: previous quarter same quarter a year ago % growth in output in year ending : 4th quarter 2014 10 - - -6.9 - &21 22&23 24 & -6.4 -6.5 -6.5 104.4 99.7 88.0 92.6 89.5 101.4 94.0 90.8 103.6 102.9 120.3 82.7 108.0 98.7 109.3 80.1 87.2 80.3 104.5 86.1 87.6 91.6 104.9 77.8 95.1
 85.2 100.0 80.2 101.2 103.9 120.7 78.1 95.8 98.0 104.3 6.4 -13.6 -7.4 - -4.8 - -4.4 -4.4 15,16,17,19,26,27,2 - 8 - Table 3: Index of industrial production by main industrial grouping of the EOE sector, Q1 2008 to Q3 2014 EOE, Manufacturing Food Products Textiles Wearing Apparel Computer, electronic and optical products Jewellery Other Manufacturing Main industrial grouping Year 2007 = 100 NSIC Rev.
2 Weight (Year 2007) Annual Quarterly 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % change, latest quarter over: previous quarter same quarter a year ago % growth in output in year ending : 4th quarter 2014 10 - -8.9 - -21.9 - -21.6 -25.8 - -5.2 - -20.3 -7.1 11,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,25,27,32 except 32100,33 - 9 - -20.9 13.6 5.2 Table 4: Index of industrial production by main industrial grouping of the Non-EOE sector (exc.
Sugar), Q1 2008 to Q3 2014 Non-EOE, manufacturing Food Excl.

Sugar Beverages Textiles Wearing Apparel Printing and reproduction of recorded media Chemicals and Chemical products Plastic & non metallic Product Basic metals & fabricated metal products Furniture Other Main industrial grouping Year 2007 = 100 NSIC Rev.
2 Weight (Year 2007) Annual Quarterly 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % change, latest quarter over: previous quarter same quarter a year ago % growth in output in year ending: 4th quarter 2014 10- -4.2 - -4.7 -3.5 22 & 23 86 24 & 6.0
81.9 102.9 105.8 123.7 79.3 97.4 99.9 105.9 6.0 -14.4 - - -4.4 15,16,17,19, 26- 30,32 & - 1 0 - ANNEX Quarterly Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) - Methodology 1 Introduction The Index of Industrial Production shows the movement of the volume of output of the Industrial Sector.
This index was calculated annually and published in the Digest of Industrial Statistics.

Following the needs expressed by various institutions, both public and private, Statistics Mauritius decided to compile and disseminate the index on a quarterly basis.

The compilation and dissemination of the Quarterly Index of Industrial Production is also one of the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
2 Objectives The Quarterly Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) is one of the most important industrial short-term indicators which aim at measuring, on a quarterly basis, the ups and downs of the volume of industrial output with a special focus on detecting, as early as possible, the turning points of the business cycle.
This enables planners, decision makers and the business community at large to be aware of any sign of change in the progress of the economy in order to take appropriate and timely policy measures.

At the office level, the index based on “hard” data, provides useful and reliable inputs for the improvement of the annual production estimates and forecasts as well as estimates of quarterly value added for the Industrial Sector.
3 Concept/Definition The basic concept of the Index of Industrial Production is the measurement of the change in real value added at basic prices.

Given that value added is defined as the difference between output and input, the compilation of the index, on a quarterly basis, is faced with practical difficulties in obtaining the data required on inputs and outputs within a reasonable period.
In the absence of detailed data for most of the different industrial groups, an approximation of the index is based on change in deflated turnover, physical output or other indicators of change in real value added generated by industrial enterprises.
The indicators used by main industrial grouping/sector are as follows: Sector/Industrial grouping Indicators used Mining and quarrying Value added deflated by appropriate deflators Industry (excluding sugar milling) groups within manufacturing Use of proxy indicators i.

Volume of production ii.

Employment iii.

Turnover data deflated by appropriate deflators (for most of the industry groups) iv.
Consumption of raw materials Sector/Industrial grouping Sugar milling ii Indicators used Value added deflated using the double deflation method.

However, until final data are obtained quarterly changes are based on annual the proportions estimate/forecast.

The are computed from the latest quarterly cost structure of milling activities (see sections 7 and 8).

deflated proportions of Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Volume of electricity sales as indicator.
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities Volume of water sales as indicator.

VAT data The deflators used are the following price indices at detailed level, wherever possible: Producer Price Index (PPI) i. ii.

Export Price Index (EPI) iii.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) iv.
Import Price Index (IPI) v. Wage Rate Index (WRI) 4 Scope/Classification The Quarterly Index of Industrial Production covers the Industrial Sector, which comprises: Mining and quarrying (NSIC Section B), Manufacturing (NSIC Section C), Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air conditioning Supply (NSIC Section D), and Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities (NSIC Section E) The industrial classifications used is according to the National Standard Industrial Classification (NSIC), Revision 2 based on the UN International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) of all economic activities, Rev.
4 of 2008, previous classifications used being NSIC Rev 1 based on ISIC, Rev.

3 of 1990.

Moreover QIIP series prior to 2007 covered only large establishments for Non EOE subsector.
As from 2008, the index series cover both large and small establishments The main changes between the two classifications , NSIC1 and 2 are: “Electricity, gas and water supply” which was previously classified under section E has been split into “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply” and “Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation” and classified under sections D and E respectively.
Section E comprises also the activities of “Sewerage, waste management and remediation activities” which was formerly part of section O in NSIC 1.

Publishing activities have shifted from the “Manufacturing” sector to “Information and Communication”.
iii 5 Compilation practices The weights have been derived (separately for EOE and Non-EOE within the manufacturing sector) from value added at basic prices by detailed industry group (mostly at 5-digit level of activity classification) compiled from the 2007 Census of Economic Activities.

A representative sample has been selected from the CEA 2007 data which covers the whole manufacturing sector.

The VAT turnover for the selected establishments is used to derive the index.
The index is calculated for each of the lowest level of activity classification and aggregation to the broader level is done as a weighted arithmetic average of the lowest level indices.

Under this methodology the weights are revised every year.

6 Data sources As mentioned previously, use is extensively made of proxy indicators for the calculation of the index and one such indicator is deflated turnover data.
Turnover data are mainly obtained from the VAT (Value Added Tax) Department, which is a very important source of secondary data.
The sources of data by industry are as follows: Sector/Industrial grouping Data sources Mining and quarrying Industry (excluding sugar milling) groups within manufacturing  Survey of establishments  Volume production of salt and sand  Quarterly data from VAT  Deflators used: change in producer prices  Turnover data from VAT Department  Trade statistics  Quarterly Stock Survey  Quarterly Survey of Employment among EOE  Sales of excisable goods from the Mauritius Revenue Authority  Continuous Multipurpose Household Survey (small establishments)  Building permits statistics (small establishments)  Deflators used: PPI M, and EPI components Sugar milling Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7 Problems/Constraints/Data quality  Survey of establishments  Deflators used: PPI A components Returns from CEB and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Volume of electricity sales Returns from CWA and quarterly VAT data Volume of water sales The practical difficulties in compiling an ideal index showing the evolution of value added at constant prices lead to the use of a number of approximation methods which are listed at section 3.
Each of the methods has a number of constraints, the main ones being: Deflated turnover: iv   quality of data from VAT Department.

The data refer to a mix of formal “large” responding enterprises/establishments.
The output of secondary activities of an enterprise are included in turnover data corresponding to the main activity of the enterprise; time-lag between production and sales may lead to a late identification of a turning point in the business cycle; ignorance of changes in stocks gives a false picture of true production.
However, based on available information from the Quarterly Stock Survey, adjustments are made, wherever possible, to take account of changes in stocks; the quality of the index is subject to the precision and relevance of the different price indices used for deflation.
   assumption based on a fixed ratio of value added to gross output when, in fact, the ratio may change as a result of technological changes, productivity changes as well as seasonal variation in the production structure Consumption of raw materials:  involves the assumption that output is constant per unit of materials used.

Employment:  does not take account of changes in labour productivity.
Although, in the short term, it is reasonable to assume that labour productivity is relatively constant, this is not true in the long term; Volume of production:  does not take account of quality changes Indirect Indicators  Indirect indicators such as household consumption and building permits have been used to estimate volume changes for certain activities of small establishments.
The volume changes may be revised when more appropriate data sources are obtained or after the next Census of Economic Activities is carried out.

Appropriateness of the QIIP 8 In spite of the above constraints/weaknesses, it is observed that the index shows relative consistency and is of reliable quality for the measurement of quarterly and other changes.

However, great care should be taken when interpreting small changes that may be insignificant at the more detailed level.
9 Index calculation The QIIP is calculated according to a modified Laspeyre's index and the formula is:  Wi (Qit/Qio) It = X 100  Wi with It Wi = index for quarter t = weight for activity i (Qit/Qio) = is the growth in real value added of activity i in quarter t relative to the base year as estimated by an appropriate proxy indicator