Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697741958036.pdf (Georgia)
Economic Growth Rate II Quarter, 2022 According to the Parliamentary Budget Office estimates, real GDP growth in Q2 2022 will be posi- tive and reach 3.3%.

Expected GDP growth is due to the maintenance of the improved economic situation and revived foreign trade started in the previous year, despite the base effect of a high growth experienced in Q2, 2021 (economy increased by 28.9% in Q2, 2021).

It should be noted that the high growth rate of the economy was also maintained in the first quarter of 2022.
In particular, according to the preliminary data of the Geostat, the average real growth in Q1, 2022 was 14.4%.

The budget office forecast for economic growth in Q2, 2022 is based on assumptions that compared to Q2, 2021:  The number of tourists coming to the country will increase by almost 2.4 times (Almost 2.3 times less than in Q2, 2019 pre-pandemic period), at the same time, the number of Georgian tourists abroad will increase.
 Domestic tourism activity will also be kept, along with a significant increase in tourism export.

 The volume of both private consumption and investment will increase, which will lead to the growth of total consumption and investment that will determine this positive pace of economic activity mentioned above.

*The forecast interval indicates the range in which the real GDP growth rate will fall.
The interval estimation is defined as the sum of the central forecast and ±0.5 standard deviation from the previous quarters economic growth.

 In parallel with the sharp increase in trade of services, a significant increase in trade of goods is also expected.

 In parallel with increased consumption and private investment, along with the investment activity of the government, the amount of imports of goods is expected to increase signifi- cantly.
 Due to the recovery of the global economy, the demand for exports is expected to increase and, consequently, the volume of good exports will increase.

As a result of quantifying these assumptions, it is expected, that export will increase more than import in Q2, 2022 and net export will contribute a positive 1.9 percentage point share in the economic activity, while domestic absorption (sum of consumption and investment) will deter- mine GDP growth rate by 1.4 percentage points*.
According to the PBO, in the assessment of economic growth for the 1th quarter of 2022, net exports were defined at 1.6%, while the ab- sorption component was defined at 12.8%.

*GDP growth decomposition in Q2, 2022.

PBO estimation Additional Information:  Annual Macroeconomic Forecasts  About the Macroeconomic Forecasting Model WWW.PBO.PARLIAMENT.GE