Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697741961660.pdf (Georgia)
Economic Growth Rate II Quarter, 2020 According to the Parliamentary Budget Office estimates, real GDP growth in Q2 2020 will be neg- ative and reach -10.7%.

Expected DGP decline is mainly driven by both, demand and supply side shocks, which are caused by COVID-19 problems.

One side, self isolation and different type of restrictions determine very sharp decrease of the aggregate demand and on the other hand de- crease of the labor supply and investments cause very strong supply side shock.

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This forecast is based on the following assumptions :  In the second quarter number of tourists coming in the country will amount almost zero, but at the same times, almost no one will leave Georgia as a tourist..  With a sharp decrease in demand, private consumption will decrease, especially this will influ- ence on the nonfood products and service sector.
 The Private investment will decrease dramatically, despite the government activities, this will determine sharp drop in the total investments and negative real GDP growth rate mentioned above.

 In parallel with the sharp decline in trade of services, a sharp decline in trade of goods is also expected.

*The forecast interval implies a 50% probability that real GDP growth will fall within the given bounds.
 In parallel with reduced consumption and private investment, the amount of imports of goods is expected to decrease significantly, this is accompanied by the effect of falling pric- es on energy imports due to the fall in oil prices.

 Due to the similar problems in the world, the demand of exports is expected to decrease and, consequently, the volume of exports will decrease.
As a result of the quantifying these assumptions, it is expected, that import will decrease more then export and net export will contribute positive 4.1 percentage point share in the economic activity, while domestic absorption (sum of consumption and investment) will shrink significantly (especially private investment) and it will determine GDP growth rate by –14.8 percentage points.

Additional Information:  Annual Macroeconomic Forecasts  About the Macroeconomic Forecasting Model WWW.PBO.PARLIAMENT.GE