Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1698753229438.pdf (Saint Kitts and Nevis)
Recent Economic Performance and Medium Term Outlook “Working Together – Accelerating Growth and Building Resilience” National Consultation on the Economy Ministry of Finance 28 September 2016 28 September 2016 Outline of Presentation Recent Economic Performance Recent Economic Performance Key Growth Sectors Inflation Central Government’s Fiscal and Debt Performance Overview of Medium Term Fiscal Framework Objectives Preliminary Results Recent Economic Performance 2016 Projected Key Growth Sectors 2016 Projected Key Growth Sectors Sectors Growth Rate (%) Underlying Assumptions Construction 5.9 Restart of major projects Tourism Wholesale and Retail 4.0 4.0 Increased airlift and availability of additional hotel rooms additional hotel rooms Increased tourism and construction activities as well as consumer spending Financial Intermediation 3.3 Growth in loans and advances Transport, Storage and Communication Communication 3.1 Increased tourism and construction activities activities 2016 Comparative Growth Performance p GDP Growth – Medium Term Outlook Risks to Medium Term Outlook Risks to Medium Term Outlook Slow implementation of major real estate construction jprojects Sustaining a healthy pipeline of private sector investment projects investment projects Slow recovery of the Manufacturing Sector Threat of natural disasters Th t l di f t t Inflation Inflation Fiscal and Debt Performance Fiscal and Debt Performance Fiscal Indicators 2014 2015p Projected 2016 Wage Bill Wage Bill 8.4% of GDP 8.4% of GDP 8.2% of GDP 8.2% of GDP 8.6% of GDP 8.6% of GDP Debt Service 8.2% of GDP 9.5% of GDP 3.1% of GDP Non-Discretionary Expenditure 10.4% of GDP & 9.7% of GDP & 34.4% of Total 39.9% of Total Expenditure Expenditure 9.7% of GDP & 38.9% of Total Expenditure Tax Revenue/Recurrent 79.0% Expenditure 78.9% 77.3% Overall Balance 10.2% of GDP 5.5% 6.4% of GDP Primary Balance Primary Balance 12.2% of GDP 12.2% of GDP 7.0% 7.0% 7.5% of GDP 7.5% of GDP Debt Stock 76.9% of GDP 65.9% of GDP 66.5% of GDP Medium Term Fiscal
 Framework: Objectives Building resilience of the macroeconomic f h ildi ili i performance to external shocks Actively managing the Citizenship by Investment Actively managing the Citizenship by Investment inflows Containing discretionary expenditure Containing discretionary expenditure Further debt reduction Medium Term Fiscal Framework: Medium Term Fiscal Framework: Results Central Government Central Government Fiscal Balances 2016 2016 Projected Total Revenue and Grants (EC$m) 759.4 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 687.7 722.5 757.6 Total Expenditure (EC$m) 604.3 632.0 655.5 681.3 Overall Balance (EC$m) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) Primary Balance (EC$m) (% of GDP) Debt Stock (% of GDP) ) ( 155.1 6.4 6 4 181.4 7.5 66.5 55.7 2.2 2 2 79.9 3.6 61.0 67.0 2.5 2 5 90.3 3.3 54.2 76.3 2.7 2 7 99.0 3.5 49.0