Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1698931071637.pdf (Uganda)
PARLIAMENT OF UGANDA REPORT OF THE BI'DGET COMMTTEE ON THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPI trt l2o2ol2l - 2o24l2sl \w OFFICE OF THE CLERK PARLIAMENT OF UGANDA <-^ JANUARY 2O2O REPORT OF THE BUDGET COMMTTIT ON THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPI rrt l2o2o l2L - 20241251 1.O INTRODUCTION On 22"a January 2O2O, the Minister of State for Finance planning and Economic Development laid on Table of Parliament the National Development Plan III in accordance with Sec 8(6) of the National Planning Authority Act, 2OO2.
The Speaker referred the NDP III to the Budget Committee for review and scrutiny and report back to the House.

Parliament is reviewing the National Budget Framework Paper FY 2O2O/21 - FY 2024/25 which according to Section 9- of the Public Finance Management Act has to be consistent with the NDP.

NDP II is expiring at the end of June 2O2O.


2.O MEIHODOLOGY In the process of reviewing NDPIII, the Committee held meetings with the Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) and the National Planning Authority.

The committee observed that the document required more time to review and to consult key stakeholders.

This will be done during the review process of the Plan as provided for in the NPA regulations.
The committee is therefore, presenting this report for purposes of approval of the NDPIII upon which the National Budget Framework Paper FY 2O2O/2I - FY 2024125 should be premised.

A more detailed assessment and consultations will be undertaken by the Committee during the Plan review process as provided for in the Regulation 10 of NPA-Development Plan Regulations, 2018.
3.O EVALUATION OF NDP1 AND NDP II 3.1 ACHIEVEMENT The key findings of the evaluation of NDPI and the Mid Term Review of NDP II indicate that there were a number of achievements made.

Several lessons were learnt to inform the formulation of the strategic direction for the next plan.

Among the key achievements, the following were noted: i).

Sustainable peace, security and macro-economic stability continued to prevail providing the basic anchor for economic growth and development; ii).
The size of economy doubled from UGX 64 trillion in FY 2OLO|11 to UGX 128 trillion in FY2O18/L9 above the NDPII target of UGX 123.3 trillion in considering changing prices; iii).
GDP per capita which is the output produced in each year divided by the total population, remained largely unchanged USD 844 in FY2O lO I LL to USD 878 in FY 2OL8/19 (based on rebased GDP, 2OL6 prices), despite the growth in population, and showed signs of getting closer to the target of US$ 1,039; <- L iv).Domestic revenue collection increased from UGX 5.02 Trillion in FY2010/11 to UGX 16.359 trillion in FY2018lL9 compared to target UGX 19.2 trillion; v).
Total exports of goods and services grew from USD 3.83 billion in FY2O1O/11 to USD 5.8 billion in FY2O18 f 19, compared to target of USD 5.6 billion; vi).Remittances from the rest of the world increased from USD 819 million in FY2O LO / ll to over USD 1.2 billion in FY2O 18 f L9, cornpared to target of USD 1.3 billion; vii).

The total paved roads network as a percentage of total national roads increased from 3,264.L I<rn in FY20lO / lL to 4,971 km in FY 20181 19, compared to target of 6,000 km; viii).
Electricity generation capacity increased from 601MW in FY2O LO / ll to 1,254MW in December 2Ol9; ix).

Access to and utilization of education services significanfly increased, including increased enrolment for UPE as well as Business, Technical and Vocational Training (BTVET); and x).

Access to and utilization of health services also significanfly increased.
See Table belou No I Indicator GDP size (Current Prices) Bn Shs GDP per Capita ruSD) Rebased Domestic Revenue Collection (Trillion shs) Total Exports of Goods and Services (USD Billions) Remittances (USD Billion) Paved Roads Network (Km of roads) Enerry generation capacity (MW) Access to Education a.

Primary School enrolment (7o) b.

Secondary School Enrolment (7o) c. Average years of learnins (vears) c. BTVET enrolment (no.)

9 Access to Health a.
Life Expectancv 64.2 844.O 5.0 3.8 o.8 3,264.1 601.0 9s.3 24.O 4.7 r.r 2010/11 r.v20L7lla r.v2oLatL9 NDP II target 2o20 119.9 864.O 128.5 878.0 r23.3 1,039.0 14.5 16.4 5.4 1.0 4,551.0 1,135.2 98.2 s5.6 6.1 t9.2 5.6 1.3 5.8 t.2 4,97t.O 1,254.2 6,000.0 N/A 100.0 40.0 11.5 N/A 60.0 25.262.O 109.305.0 50.3 63.3 I 2 (years) b. Maternal Mortality Rate (/ 100.000) c. Total Fertility Rate (Children per woman) Sources; Drafi NDP 3 435.0 336.0 6.7 5.4 320.O 4.5 3.2 CI{ALLENGES The evaluation process of the previous NDPs also identified challenges that continue to hinder the realisation of our national development targets and aspirations.
These include: i).

A large proportion of households (68.9 percent) still in the subsistence economy; ii).

Insufficient creation of quality and gainful jobs in the economy, especially for the youth with an estimated unemployment rate of L3.3Yo, yet about 78o/o of t}:e population is aged 3O years and below; iii).

Whereas cost of electricity has reduced, it remains higher than the targeted 5 cents per unit; iv).

Widening income inequality, particularly between the regions; v).
Limited access to and high cost of capital; vi).

Low capacity in public service and prevalence of corruption; vii).

Severe reduction in the forest cover as well as wetland degradation and encroachment; viii).

Dwindling local revenues insufficient to fund local service delivery; arrd ix).

Uncoordinated approaches to planning and implementation.

x).
x).

The Quality of education remains low characterized by the low levels of literacy and numeracy, coupled with the high rate of school dropout; xi).Inadequate functionality of health facilities and rising cases of non- communicable diseases; and xii).

Weak implementation of debt financed programs and projects, and inability to timely complete projects and within budget.
The Committee observed tJlat challenges that existed at the beginning of NDPI continue to be the same challenges during NDP II with almost the same indicators being reflected.

For example, the number of households in the subsistence economy has stagnated at 68.50/0.

The committee noted that the National Development Plans should seek fix these challenges during its implementation.
As we launch into the new NDP government should ensure continuous improvement in all the indicators including transformation of the economy from subsistence to commercial as envisaged in the Plan.

-( 3 The Committee observed that the reporting periods were mixed up and in many ways not rhyming with the time frames of the NDPs that were being assessed.

Each NDP should be assessed independently based on its targets and performance indicators.
Secondly, the original targets as set by the NDP are not given making it difficult to draw conclusions about the performance of the ND 4.O KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE NDP III 4.1 NDP III STRATEGIC DIRECTION The goal of the NDPIII is 'Increased household.

incomes and lmproued qualitg of life'.

This goal is to be achieved under the overall theme of T Sustainable Industrlali"zation for lncluslue grouth, emplogment and.

sustalnable utealth creatl.on".


The goal and theme are in line with Uganda Vision 2O4O, EAC Vision 205O, Africa Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

4.2 TIJD KEY OBJBCTTVES OF THE PLAN ARE 1.

Enhance value addition in key growth opportunities; 2.

Strengthen the private sector to create jobs; 3.

Consolidate and increase the stock and quality of productive infrastructure; 4.

Enhance the productivity and social wellbeing of the population; 5.
Strengthen the role of the state in guiding and facilitating development.
vii) il ii) iii) iv) v) vi) 4.3 KEY DTVELOPMINT STRATEGIES Agro-Industrialization ; Fast-Track Oil, Gas and Mineral-Based Industrialization ; Import Replacement/ Promotion of Local Manufacturing; Export Promotion; Harness the Tourism Potential; Provide a suitable fiscal, monetar5r and regulatory environment for the private sector to invest; Increase local content participation; Institutionalize infrastructure maintenance; Develop intermodal transport infrastructure to enhance interoperability; Increase access to stable, reliable and affordable energr; Leverage urbarrization as a driver for socio-economic transformation; Improve access and quality of social services; xii) InstituttonaJize human resource planning for the economy; Enhance skills and vocational Development; Promote Science, Technology, Engineering and Innovation as well as ICT; Increase access to social protection; Promote development-oriented mind-set; Increase government participation in strategic sectors; Mobilization for Increase Resource Programs; tation of National Development xii) xiii) *ir) xv) xvi) xvii) viii) ix) x) xi) / L xiv).
xv).

percent; xviii) Re-engineer the Public service to promote investment; and xix) Enhance partnerships with non-state actors for effective service delivery 4.4 NDPrrr OVERALL OUTCOMES/EXPE|CTED RESITLTS The committee noted that the NDP III implementation will result in the flowing outcomes at the end of the Iive-year period: i).

Reduced Poverty rates; from 21.4 percent to L4.2 percent; ii).
Reduced Income Inequality (Gini coefficient); from 0.41 to 0.38; iii).Increased contribution of industry to GDP; from 18.6 percent to 25 percent; iv).

Rate of growth of the industrial sector from 6.

I percent to 8.1 percent; v).

Rate of growth of the agricultural sector from 3.8 percent to 5.1 percent; vi).

Reduced Youth unemployment; from 13.3 percent to 6.6 percent; viil.

Increased value of manufactured exports in total exports; from 12.3 percent to 20 percent; viii).
ix).Increase in the share of intermediate goods (inputs for manufacturing) in total Increase in the ratio of Exports to GDP from L2.7 percent to 20 percent; import bill from 18.6 percent to 25.5 percent; x).

Reduction in the percentage of h/holds dependent on subsistence agriculture as a main source of livelihood from 68.9 percent to 55 percent; xi).Increased electricity consumption per capita from 100kwh to 578kwh; xii).

Increased forest cover; from 9.Spercent to lSpercent; xiii).
Reduction in the cost of electricity to USD 5 cents for all processing and manufacturing enterprise s ; Increased population with access to electricity; from 21 percent to 6O Increased coverage of the national broadband infrastructure to 45oh of total number households and TOoh of the total number of schools.

4.5 NDPIII PROGRAIVIMES We noted that the plan has identified 18 programmes that will deliver the expected results.
These are: i) ii) iii) ir) v) vi) vii) viii) ix) x) xi) xii) Agro-indu strialisation programme Mineral Development Programme Sustainable Development of Petroleum resources Tourism Development Programme Climate Change, Natural Resources, Environment, and Water Management Private Sector Development Programme Manufacturing Programme Integrated Transport Infrastructure and Services Programme Enerry development Programme Digital Transformation Programme Sustainable Urbanisation and Housing Programme Human Capital Development Programme 5 /) xiiil ,,irr) xv) xvi) xvii) xviii) Innovation, technolory development and Transfer Programme Community Mobilisation and Mindset Programme Governance and Security Programme Public Sector Transformation Programme Regional Development Programme Development Plan Implementation Programme 5:O KEY DIFFERENCES BEIWEEN NDPII AND NDPIII The Committee observed that the main difference between NDPII and NDPIII as highlighted in the NDPIII are; i) ii) iii ) irr) NDPIII fast tracks realization of results in a more programmatic approach to planning.
This approach to delivery will change in NDPIII to focus on achievement of results through a programmatic approach to planning and budgeting.

NDPIII will therefore focus on resource-led industrialization through Value addition in agriculture, minerals, petroleum and manufacturing.

The increased role of the state.


Whereas in the previous NDPs the private sector was assumed to drive growth, under NDPIII the role of the state in guiding and facilitating development will be strengthened in order to fully exploit the quasi market and PPP approaches in development.

In this case, Government will invest either wholly or jointly with the private sector and the communities in strategic enterprises to crowd in the private sector in order to spur growth in a balanced manner across the country.
Increased investment in fundamentals (Human Capital Development, Transport, Energy and ICT) that will bridge the gaps between what is needed to exploit our development opportunities and what is currently available.

Introduction of a program approach to planning complimented by area- based commodity and spatial planning to: a) b) c) d) Focus implementation on delivery of common results, including SDGs, East African Community targets and Africa Agenda 2063 targets.
Achievement of results specified in these development frameworks does not neatly fall within any particular sector.
Strengthen alignment and eliminate the 'silo'approach to service delivery and enhance s5mergies across sectors and other actors Provide a framework for the already existing prograrnme-based budgeting Address area specific priorities and inequities in growth and household lncomes @a 4 v) NDPIII clear and interlinked results and targets at the Goal, Objective, Program and Project level that are directly linked to budget formulation and budget implementation processes.
NDPIII will be based on national programs and projects with clear results and targets.

These programs and targets will be the basis for the formulation of the national budget in order to strengthen the link between planning, budgeting and budget implementation as well as between NDP targeted results and national budget expenditure.

6.0 COMMTTEE OBSERVATIONS AND RBCOMMENDATIONS a) NDPII Core ProJects transition and integration to NDPIII: Time Frame for completion.
The core projects of the NDPII are at different stages of implementation and most will not be completed in the remaining period of the plan implementation.

Some of the projects are still at levels of preparation and will be considered in subsequent budgets.
These include; Farm Income Enhancement and Forest Conservation II, Hoima Oil ReIinery, East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), Albertine Region Airport (Kabaale international airport-Hoima), Solar Powered Mini-Piped Water schemes Project, Kampala Busines Industrial Park - Namanve, Standard - Gauge Railway, Kampala- Jinja Express Highway, Busega - Mpigr Expressway, Kampala Flyover Construction and Road Upgrading Project, Kibuye - Busega Express Highway, Rwenkunye - Apac - Lira, Bukasa Inland Port, Kabaale-Mirama Transmission Line, and Masaka -Mbarara Transmission lines.
The committee observed that these NDPII unfinished projects without a clear time frame and cost/financing arrangement for their completion may affect the implementation of the NDPIII.

Parliament should ensure that all planned projects under NDPII are completed before embarking on new NDPIII projects.
The committee recommends that all NDPII projects should be given timeframe for their completion and those to be integrated in the NDPIII should be costed and annualised so that they can be integrated in the Medium-Term Budget Framework.

Some of these projects should be reviewed to establish their feasibility.
bl Costing of the Plan The committee noted the overall cost of financing NDPIII over the S-year period is UGX 342,607 Bilton of which UGX 213,913 billion is public while UGX 128,694 Billion is private sector contribution representing 62.4 % and 38.6 o/o respectively.

The committee observed that there is no breakdown or annualised costing of the plan that is aligned to the BFP for FY2O2O/21.
The absence of the annualised costing for each sector will make it very difficult for Parliament to ascertain consistence of the Plan and the Budgets and to monitor performance of the plan.

Each sector costing should be w"\1 I @ clearly spelt out in the plan to enable parliament to assess and monitor progress of the NDP implementation.
The committee recommends that a detailed annualised costed plan with ensuing result framework should be submitted for scrutiny before the commencement of the NDPIII in July 2O2O.

cf Manpower planning The committee noted that the NDPII implementation should address itself to the manpower challenges facing the country as highlighted in the Human development programme in the NDPIII.

This is because the high human resource gap in all sectors is a key challenge to the rea)izatton of growth targets.
Government through the NDPIII should come up with a deliberate programme for re-skilling of the unemployed youths to turn them into innovators and job creators, especially in the light industry and service sectors of the economy There is also a mindset problem which has eroded the quality of human resources across all sectors.

A deliberate effort by Government in the NDPIII is critical to instil ethical values in the public service and to restore the confidence of the citizenry.
The rampant unethical conducts of the human resources as well as the absence of requisite skills in both the public and private sectors are partly responsible for poor service delivery and slow growth of the economy.

The Committee recommends that Government should address quality and appropriateness of the education system to be able to deliver job makers and not job seekers.

The skilling programme needs more strengthening to produce the human resources needed for industrialization.
This will rhyme with the theme, of this NDP III, 'Sustainable Industrialization for inclusive growth, employment and sustainable wealth creation' Conclusion Right Hon Speaker, in view of the above, the Committee looked at the interventions and is convinced if they are followed to the dot, the Plan will transform this Country.
We recommend that the House approves the NDPIII2O2OI2L-2O24125I I beg to Move $e5 w /t 8 ( MEMBERS OF THE BUDGET COMMITTEE trTIIO SIGNED THIS REPORT ON THE ON THE REPORT OF THE BUDGET COMMTTEE ON THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDP| ttt l2o2ol2l - 2024l2sl NO NAME silGNATURE Hon.

Lusoloobi Amos (Chairperson) Hon.

Opolot Isiaei Patrick (Vice Chairperson) Hon.

Mwesisye Fred Hon.

Ilukor Charles Hon.

Hashim Sulaiman Hon.

Luboso Kenneth Hon.

Mutebi David Ronnie Hon.

Nankabirwa Ann Maria Hon.


Othieno Okoth Richard Hon.

Komuhanei Marearet Hon.

Khainza Justine 11 Hon.

Achia Remigio L2 Hon.

Asiku Elly Elias 13 t4 Hon.

T\rmuramye Genesio 15 16 Hon.

Nsabirano Charles t7 Hon.

Nabarriea Idah 18 Hon.

Musasizi Henrv i9 Hon.

Silwany Solomon 20 Hon.

Kiiza Winfred 2t 22 Hon.

Muzume Roland 23 Hon.

Ongom Joy 24 Hon.

Muwanga Kivumbi 25 Hon.

Ntende Robert 26 Hon.

Karuhanga Gerald 27 Hon.

Bagoole John 28 Hon.

Kakoza James 29 Hon.


Soyekwa Cheborion Kenneth Hon.

Aleper Aachilla Margaret Hon.

Atim Oswal Cecilia a UfJh.I MIAL u\l U fl rh--