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La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES August 2021 Reproduction: All rights reserved.

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La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES August 2021 Table of Content Social Sectors Education Health Housing Productive Sectors Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Tourism – Parks Tourism – Accommodation Infrastructure Sectors Transport Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Electricity Cross-Cutting Sectors Disaster Risk Reduction Environment Impact Assessment Human and Social Impact Macroeconomic Impact Disaster Recovery Strategy References PDNA Organisation and Structure 5 6 22 41 54 55 82 92 100 101 119 130 146 147 157 165 166 176 204 221 224 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 5 PAGE 5 Social Sectors PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 6 Education Sector The education sector in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is comprised of 223 schools ranging from early, primary and secondary education.
Presently, there are one hundred and twenty- eight (128) early childhood centres.

Of these institutions, 117 are privately operated while the remaining eleven are (11) operated by government institutions.

Pupils within the primary school system are accommodated in sixty-eight (68) primary institutions.

Of these institutions, 57 are public and the remaining 11 are government assisted or private institutions.
Secondary Education in St. Vincent and the Grenadines is provided by 27 institutions, 19 of which are public.

The remaining eight schools are owned by churches but operate with substantial financial assistance from the Government.

typology is the one that has metal sheet roofing, due to its inability to withstand additional vertical load added by the weight of ash, especially if wet.
While one can say that the Education Sector in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines was not the most severely sector impacted by the volcanic eruption, the costs to repair and rebuilt the affected infrastructure turns out to be important.

The total assets value of the building schools in the country was estimated at XCD 135.2 million.1 The damage in terms of the costs to repair and replace the affected infrastructure represents 10.8% of that total value of the school buildings assets.
Due to the importance of maintaining the education system running this should be one of the priority sectors in the reconstruction process.

In terms of exposure to the volcno, 22 percent of the education buildings are in the red, orange, and yellow zones as defined by the volcanic hazard map.
In terms of physical vulnerability, of the school buildings, the weakest constructive During the volcanic eruption, educational facilities on the main island of Saint Vincent were affected and the effects were directly correlated to the radial proximity to the volcano.

A classification was established ranking areas from the greatest 1 Ministry of Education 2021.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 7 to the least affected using four colours: a) red identifying the most affected, b) orange identifying the moderately affected, c) yellow identifying the mildly affected, and d) green identifying the minimally affected.

A total of 177 schools were impacted, comprised of early childhood centres (106), primary schools (52) and secondary schools (19).
Of the total number of affected schools, 139 were mildly affected, and 19 each were moderately and severely affected.

Total damage is estimated at XCD 14.6 million with XCD 7.8 million corresponding to private property, and XCD 6.8 million public property; while other losses and additional costs amount to XCD 0.73 million, including XCD 0.34 million in the public sector and XCD 0.39 million in the private sector.

See Table 1 for details.


Damage XCD Loss XCD TOTAL XCD Table 1: Damage and loss summary PRIVATE 7,829,723 391,486 8,221,209 PUBLIC 6,763,156 338,158 7,101,314 Total 14,592,879 729,644 15,322,523 Source: Education sector evaluation team.

For this assessment, loss has been estimated at XCD 0.73 million and this reflects the additional costs incurred to collect, remove, and dispose debris mostly associated with the partial or total destruction of roofs.
Other costs related to the cleaning of ash are significant but are not included in these costs, those costs have been captured globally in the Transport Sector.

Impact to the environment has been significant due to the fall of ashes, this has been compounded by the large amount of debris linked to the partial or total destruction of mostly roofs in this and other sectors such as housing and health for example.
In terms of human impact, students that were studying from home due to the ongoing pandemic were displaced substantially.

This displacement forced them to change their daily activities, since they had to adapt to new conditions in government led and private shelters.

During the emergency a total of 20,915 students were displaced: 12,025 from primary schools and 8,890 from secondary schools.

The recorded damage and loss figures were used as a basis to estimate the recovery needs.
Concepts of building back better and disaster risk reduction were applied to counteract effects caused by the volcanic ashfall in a potential new eruption, but also any future catastrophic event including hurricanes and storms.

To this end, an additional 20 percent in the replacement values was applied.

Total needs amount to XCD 18.2 million, which corresponds to XCD 17.5 million for building improvement and XCD 0.7 million for incurred expenses.
In the short term, the recovery needs amounts to XCD 11.8 million, while in the medium term, which includes improvements on educational facilities located in the green zone of the hazard map, amounts to XCD 6.4 million.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 8 2.
Context or Sector Background According to the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ministry of education, the total recorded student population reaches a total of 26,623 students; 3,919 in early childhood level, 13,194 in the primary level and 9,510 in the secondary level.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines is comprised of 11 educational districts on the mainland.
Source: Ministry of Education PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 9 Presently, there are one hundred and twenty-eight (128) early childhood centres.

Of these institutions, 117 are privately operated while the remaining eleven are (11) operated by government institutions.

Together, all 128 institutions cater for children between ages three to five years of age.

The overall enrolment for the 2018-2019 Academic year stood at 3,919.2 which are public.
The remaining eight schools are owned by churches but operate with substantial financial assistance from the Government.

These eight schools are referred to as Assisted Secondary (AS) schools.

In 2018-2019, the overall secondary enrolment stood at 9,510 with the Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) being 99.10 while the Net Enrolment Rate (NER) being 88.89.4 The primary enrolment for 2018-2019 stood at 12,962 and indicates a decrease of 232 students over the 2017-2018 figure which stood at 13,194.
This decrease may be partially attributable to pupils from the leeward islands returning home following the passage of tropical storms which displaced them from their respective homelands.

Pupils within the primary cycle are accommodated in sixty-eight (68) primary institutions.
Of these institutions, 57 are public and the remaining 11 are government assisted or private.3 in St. Vincent and the Secondary Education Grenadines is provided by 27 institutions, 19 of Baseline According to information provided by the Ministry of Education, the country’s assets in educational buildings amount to a total of 111 buildings for pre- school education, 58 for primary education and 22 for secondary education.
Overall the value of the education system runs at an estimated XCD 135.2 million, of which XCD 56.9 million corresponds to assets in the public sector and XCD 78.2 million corresponds to the private sector.

Table 2.

2 3 4 Education statistical digest 2018-2019, St. Vincent and the Grenadines Ibidem.

Ibidem.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 10 Table 2: Total assets (schools) Description Quantity Average area (Sm) Unit cost (XCD) Estimate value per unit Total assets (XCD) Property (XCD) Public Private Urban schools Saint George Early Childhood Primary Secondary Rural schools Charlotte Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint David Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Patrick Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Andrew Early Childhood Primary Secondary 33,052,860 11,017,620 22,035,240 210 1,377 289,170 13,880,160 4,626,720 9,253,440 540 1,755 947,700 10,424,700 3,474,900 6,949,800 1,080 2,025 2,187,000 8,748,000 2,916,000 5,832,000 - - 102,125,610 45,905,940 56,219,670 210 1,377 289,170 9,253,440 4,626,720 4,626,720 540 1,755 947,700 22,744,800 11,372,400 11,372,400 1,080 2,025 2,187,000 10,935,000 5,467,500 5,467,500 - 210 1,377 289,170 2,602,530 1,301,265 1,301,265 540 1,755 947,700 7,581,600 3,790,800 3,790,800 1,080 2,025 2,187,000 4,374,000 2,187,000 2,187,000 - 210 1,377 289,170 1,445,850 722,925 722,925 540 1,755 947,700 5,686,200 2,843,100 2,843,100 1,080 2,025 2,187,000 6,561,000 3,280,500 3,280,500 - Totals 135,178,470 56,923,560 78,254,910 Source: Ministry of Education 2021.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 11 Table 3: Total students in affected areas Description Quantity Property Number of students Urban schools Early Childhood Primary Secondary Public Private Primary Secondary Saint George Rural schools Charlotte Saint David Saint Patrick Saint Andrew Totals Source: Ministry of Education 2021.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 12 3.Sector effectsand cost of the effects3.

Assessment of Disaster effects During the April 2021 volcanic eruption, the educational facilities on the main island were affected and these effects were directly correlated to the radial proximity to the volcano.
A classification was established ranking areas from the greatest to the least affected using four colours: a) red identifying the most affected, b) orange identifying the moderately affected, c) yellow identifying the mildly affected, and d) green identifying the minimally affected.

Damage is estimated at XCD 14.6 million out of which, XCD 7.8 million represents private property, and XCD 6.8 million correspond to public property.
Loss and additional costs amount to XCD 0.73 million, including XCD 0.34 million in the public sector and XCD 0.39 million in the private sector.

The need to relocate educational buildings or change the construction technology of the roof in the red zone should be evaluated, however this requires a detailed study to avoid transferring students to a new site.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 13 Table 4: Damage and loss summary Item Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Public Private Public Private Estimation of Damage to Infrastructure and Physical Assets a) Schools with severe damage 2,911,626 2,911,626 b) Schools partially destroyed (moderate damage) b) Schools partially destroyed (mild damage) 1,711,631 1,711,631 2,139,899 3,206,466 Estimation of Change in Economic Flows (CEF)/Losses Debris removal Total 6,763,156 7,829,723 338,158 391,486 338,158 391,486 Source: Education sector evaluation team.
To estimate the damage and loss caused by the volcanic eruption, data was classified by division and subsequently the category based on level of affectation was used according to the geolocation, assigning a percentage of affectation according to their location in the volcanic hazard map, either red, orange or yellow zones.

To estimate the value of the educational facilities, the information from the baseline and the local reference was used according to the type of construction.
Subsequently, the damage percentages were applied as follows: • Mild – No significant damage: the structure is usable and can be occupied.

Required repairs are minimal.

Examples: some shingles have blown off the roof or the roof covering has loosened.

Windows are broken.

5%.

• Moderate – Minor damage: the structure is usable and can be occupied after taking urgent temporary measures.

The owner will probably need assistance with repairs.

Examples: parts of the roof covering are missing.


Windows and doors are blown out.

The structure has shifted in its foundation.

25% • Severe– Major damage: the structure is not usable and cannot be occupied until repairs are made.

Example: Roof covering has blown off or destroyed, exposing the interior of the structure.

Windows and doors are missing, and walls are damaged.
40% PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 14 Table 5: Damage by division Description Quantity Damage level Mild Moderate Severe Total dam- ages (XCD) Property Public Private Urban schools Saint George Early Childhood Primary Secondary Rural schools Charlotte Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint David Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Patrick Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Andrew Early Childhood 17 17 245,795 81,932 163,863 Primary Secondary Totals 9 8 9 8 426,465 142,155 284,310 874,800 291,600 583,200 14,592,879 6,763,156 7,829,723 Source: education sector evaluation team.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 15 For this assessment, loss has been estimated at XCD 0.73 million and this reflects the additional costs incurred to collect, remove, and dispose of debris mostly associated with the partial or total destruction of roofs.

Other costs related to the cleaning of ash are also significant, have not been captured in this sector assessment but are reflected globally under the transport sector.
Of the total loss, XCD 0.33 million corresponds to the public sector and XCD 0.39 million to the private sector.

Other additional costs such as those related to the cleaning, maintenance and refurbishing of those school facilities used as shelters or temporary housing have not been included either in this evaluation, meaning that actual loss could be higher than what is reported here.
Table 6: Total loss Description Quantity Damage level Mild Moderate Severe Total loss (XCD) Property (XCD) Public Private Debris removal Charlotte Saint David Saint Patrick Saint Andrew Saint George Totals 61 19 14 34 63 61 34 63 107,333 53,667 53,667 19 291,163 145,581 145,581 14 171,163 85,582 85,582 77,353 25,784 51,569 82,632 27,544 55,088 729,644 338,158 391,486 Source: education sector evaluation team with information of the DDSA report.

4.
4.

Linking the effects to the human impact In terms of human impact, students that were studying from home due to the ongoing pandemic were displaced substantially.

This displacement forced them to change their daily activities, since they had to adapt to new conditions in government led and private shelters.

During the emergency a total of 20,915 students were displaced: 12,025 from primary schools and 8,890 from secondary schools.
Like in many other countries, school buildings are used as shelters to provide immediate but temporary housing to the most affected and displaced populations.

On April 8th, 2021, a total of 87 shelters where immediately activated after the eruption noting that nearly 70% of them are school buildings, the rest are churches, community centers and others.

By the 24th of July 2021, 47 shelters have been closed, leaving 40 shelters still open.
This will pose additional challenges to have school facilities ready to welcome students as regular activities are progressively resumed.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 16 5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy To estimate recovery needs in the Education Sector, cost of the damage and loss was used as the basis for the analysis.
The concept of building back better is applied to estimate the additional cost that would be needed to provide the school infrastructure with improved capacities to withstand a potential new eruption in the coming weeks or months, but also provides for improved resistant capacities to mitigate other climate related events such as strong winds produced by hurricanes and storms.

To this end, and additional 20 percent was applied to the cost to repair or rebuild as per the PDNA methodology.
Total needs amount to XCD 18.2 million, which corresponds to XCD 17.5 million for educational facilities improvement, and XCD 0.7 million for additional expenses incurred.

To determine a priority order for intervention in the different divisions, the colour zone defined on the volcanic hazard map was used and thus, the highest priority was given to the divisions marked within the red and yellow zones, leaving the green zone with a lower priority.
The expenses already incurred such as the removal of rubble are included within the recovery needs, since these expenses will need to be covered by the government.
In terms of recovery strategy and considering that most of the shelters are using school premises, it would be important to identify medium- and long-term sheltering solutions for the displaced population in view of the level of uncertainty of the duration of the volcanic event, especially if face-to-face sessions are resumed should the spread of the COVID-19 virus is reduced overtime with the vaccination campaigns.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 17 Table 7: Recovery needs Item DaDamage Loss Justification.

Needs coming from the analysis of effects and impacts.

Needs (XCD) 1.
Building improvement Urban schools Saint George Early Childhood Primary Secondary Rural schools Charlotte Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint David Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Patrick Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Andrew Early Childhood Primary Secondary 694,008 521,235 437,400 462,672 1,137,240 546,750 1,041,012 3,032,640 1,749,600 361,463 1,421,550 1,640,250 245,795 426,465 874,800 Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Red zone Red zone Red zone Yellow zone Yellow zone Yellow zone Green zone Green zone Green zone 3.
Debris removal 729,644 Executed Total 14,592,879 729,644 Source: education sector evaluation team.

832,810 625,482 524,880 555,206 1,364,688 656,100 1,249,214 3,639,168 2,099,520 433,755 1,705,860 1,968,300 294,953 511,758 1,049,760 729,644 18,241,099 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 18 Based on the priorities described above, needs in the short and medium term were estimated.
The renovations and improvement of the educational buildings should be carried out as a priority in the areas defined with the colours red and yellow.

The recovery needs in short term amount to XCD 11.8 million.

In the medium term, improvements to the education facilities located in the green zone of the map of damages caused by the volcanic eruption have been included, with a total of XCD 6.4 million.
In the red zone, the need to relocate educational buildings or change the construction technology of the roof should be evaluated, however this requires a detailed study to avoid affecting the transfer of students to a new site.

Table 8: Recovery needs prioritization Intervention/Activity Short Run* Intermedi- ate* Long Run * Priority (1 a 5) Comment Cost (XCD) 1.
Building improvement Urban schools Saint George Early Childhood Primary Secondary Rural schools Charlotte Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint David Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Patrick Early Childhood Primary Secondary Saint Andrew Early Childhood Primary Secondary 832,810 625,482 524,880 555,206 1,364,688 656,100 1,249,214 3,639,168 2,099,520 433,755 1,705,860 1,968,300 3.
Debris removal Totals 729,644 11,825,461 6,415,637 4 4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 Green zone Green zone Green zone 832,810 625,482 524,880 555,206 1,364,688 656,100 1,249,214 3,639,168 2,099,520 433,755 1,705,860 1,968,300 729,644 18,241,099 Red zone Red zone Red zone Yellow zone Yellow zone Yellow zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Executed * To be agreed with the Government.

Source: education sector evaluation team.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 19 6.
Sources of information, references Half a page • Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (Grade) Report, World Bank Gpurl D-Ras Team, April 2021.

• River Crossing and Housing Infrastructure Detailed Damage Assessment, Ministry of Transport, Works, Lands & Physical Planning, Government of Saint Vincent, July 2021.

Education statistical digest 2018-2019, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Situation reports La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent, from CDEMA, April 2021.
• • PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 20 7.
Annex Annex 1 Distribution of Shelters that remain open by 24 July 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 21 Shelters closed by 24 July 2021 Evaluation team Shelly-Ann Harper, UNICEF • • Keith Thomas, Ministry of Education, Saint Vincent • Alexis Caine, Ministry of Education, Saint Vincent • DeAnna Ralph, Ministry of Education, Saint Vincent • Winshell Norzeron, ECHO • Osmar Velasco, World Bank – Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 22 financial resources to contain the spread of the virus, but also to manage the increased rate of infections specially at the beginning of the year.
In April 2021, infection rates had fallen, and the authorities had started a vaccination campaign which required good planning, management, and delivery.

An IFRC report on the dengue outbreak in the country showed the Dengue Fever was present in all the health districts in the country, with 58% of cases reported occurring in persons who live in the Pembroke, Kingstown, and Calliaqua Health Districts of the Green Zone.
As of 20 January 2021, there were 1,790 confirmed cases with 8 deaths, an 11% increase in the number of cases since the last published Surveillance Report of October 2020.

In this context, the volcanic eruption further compounded the health situation in the country by adding to the demand for health services as reported by PAHO5.
In the afternoon of 8 April 2021, the Prime Minister issued an order to evacuate over 20,000 individuals from the volcano red zone due to an imminent explosive eruption, the next day, evacuations of the orange zone also started.

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) activated a network of 76 Health Sector Fig.
1 Health Facilities in the red and orange zones The April 9, 2021, volcanic eruption of La Soufriere, found the Health Sector in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) in an already difficult situation.

Pressure for an effective response to COVID-19 had already demanded additional human and 5 Volcano La Soufriere eruption in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - PAHO/WHO | Pan American Health Organization PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 23 emergency shelters.
Due to community spread and asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 in the island, public health risk involved in gathering in a shelter was significant.

The health sub-sector did not record any major collapse of health facilities, due to the additional weight of ash on the building roofs.

However, one facility, the temporary Clinic in Sandy Bay, a building that was refurbished to carry out clinic functions was severely damaged, and all content was lost.
In addition, medical stock, furniture and IT equipment were affected.

Eighteen health care centers, located in hazard zones red and orange, were closed and their services were moved to safer districts.

This included two district hospitals – Chateaublair and Georgetown, the medical center and the attached dialysis unit.

Health services were redirected towards the Milton Cato Memorial hospital in Kingstown while the Barbados Defense Force was on standby to provide a field hospital.
The surge in demand for health services following the eruption overwhelmed the capacity of the health services to provide emergency and essential care to the affected populations by both this natural event and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ministry of Health also reported a shortage of sexual and reproductive health commodities and supplies to manage the health consequences of sexual violence, and to prevent unintended pregnancies, as well as HIV and other STIs.
The amount of ash covering main roads especially in Owia, Sandy Bay and Overland, exceeded in many places the 30 cm expected in the red zones from the hazard map released by NEMO.

See Figure 1 depicting the location of critical facilities in the highest hazard zones, red and orange, and Annex 1 for details.

Damage to the health sector, which includes the cost to repair and rebuilt infrastructure and physical assets, amounted to XCD 3,151,203.
This amount includes the cost to replace medical stock, furniture and IT equipment that were affected.

In terms of change in economic flows, estimates of income loss due to the closure of the hospitals were not able to be captured, neither the additional costs due to services provided in shelters.
A total loss of XCD 358,150.00 as per this report which takes into account forgone income to the Government for services it would have provided, due to the closure of health facilities in the red and orange zones, salaries of non- medical personnel and replacement of medical records only.

This loss figure could be increased as additional is provided.
Total recovery needs are estimated at XCD 10,329,105 that includes additional costs to reduce existing vulnerability of the health facilities specially at the roofing, to ensure safety of water provision, monitoring of the quality of air, provision of psychological support to families and other basic improvements in the provision to health services and access to health services, including for sexual and reproductive health.
information Recovery Needs of Health Damage XCD Loss XCD Recovery Needs Public 3,151,203 358,150 10,329,105 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 24 2.

Context or Sector Background General Administration The Ministry of Health and the Environment, MOHWE, is the executive arm of the Government of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines responsible for pursuing all official national health policies.
With the Minister providing political direction and as the political directorate, a Permanent Secretary leading the administration and a Chief Medical Officer as the technical lead.

Health Financing The Government of SVG contributes 73 percent to annual expenditures to meet the health needs of the population.
Other sources include household direct out-of-pocket payments, 14 percent, grants and other donor funds from external sources up to 10 percent, and funds from purchase of private insurance plans, 3 percent.

In 2012, the government cost-recovery mechanism accounted for a mere 2.4 percent of total public health expenditure.

Leadership and Governance is committed to the effective, The MOHWE efficient and transparent use of resources for health through the processes of good leadership and governance.
In one aspect, the concentration of leadership is on streamlining the process elements of the health service delivery system information management, such as planning, monitoring and evaluation, integration and community engagement; while, at the same time, managing the human resources, finances, and hardware components.

It also ensures that appropriate policy frameworks are developed and implemented.
Measures are also in train to develop a robust legislative and regulatory framework that will support the operations of the health delivery system.

Medical & Health Care Medical and Health Care facilities are distributed in nine Health Districts.

Primary care is delivered at the 39 health care facilities, 3 polyclinic and 5 district hospitals.

These services include antenatal care, child health and chronic diseases screening.
Secondary care is offered at the Milton Cato Memorial Hospital, includes general and surgery, internal medicine, radiology, pediatrics, orthopedics and nephrology.

Ophthalmology and physiotherapy are two services that are provided at both levels of health care.

The Modern Medical and Diagnostic Centre (MMDC), which was opened in 2018 and located in Georgetown, is in the red zone.

It provides services in Oncology, Nephrology, Dialysis, Radiology, Laboratory, Surgery and Accident and Emergency.
Also located near the MMDC is the Georgetown Hospital which also provides service to the red zone.

Performance of the Health Sector Basic health indicators for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are generally positive as shown in table 1.
Some of the more pressing challenges facing the health sector are fiscal constraints; changing family structures; an ageing population; in chronic non-communicable an upsurge diseases; relatively high levels of communicable diseases; and limited/lack of access to sexual and reproductive health services for most vulnerable and marginalized populations, including persons with disabilities.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 25 Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is one of the causes of mortality in both males and females.

The shift away from traditional diets to more varied energy-dense diets has resulted in a steady rise in persons overweight.

Together with HIV/AIDS, NCDs are the main health threats to the people of SVG and the main focus of the health sector.
Although the social and economic impact has not been fully assessed, the financial burden alone is tremendous, with most human and technical resources being used in the treatment of these diseases.

Key achievements Free primary health care services6 and mental health services are offered at all health centers while oral health services are delivered at selected health centers.
Emphasis also is being placed on investments in health infrastructure throughout the country – including refurbishing existing facilities and constructing new and modern clinics.

Recent achievements in this area include the opening of the Modern Medical Complex in Georgetown in 2018, state-of-the-art polyclinics in Buccament and Mesopotamia, and a Smart Hospital in Chateaubelair in 2019.
The Government continues to strengthen administrative capacity in the health sector, re-orient the primary health care system to create a more positive impact on the health status of the nation and expand secondary and tertiary health care services to include new treatment modalities.

SVG has made huge strides in terms of disease improved sanitation.

Over 93 reduction and percent of the population has access to clean Table1.
Health Indicators 2016 in SVG Indicators Estimate Life Expectancy at Birth (in completed years) Male Female Peri-natal Mortality Rate per 1,000 Live Births Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 Live Births Child Mortality Rate per 1,000 Live Births Still Births (count) Total Fertility Rate Registered Nurses per 1,000 population Immunization Coverage in infants less than 1 year (%) Births Attended by Skilled Personnel (%) 73 71 75 24.9 16.6 16.9 23 2.1 4.5 100 98.6 Source: Statistical Office of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 6 These services include emergency care, medical care, prenatal and postnatal care, midwifery and child health services including immunization, school health and family planning services, communicable and non-communicable diseases control PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 26 potable water.
Overall, the country has a low disease spread, this also is true of COVID-19, in which the country has recorded 27 cases.

In 2019, the Government published its first Charter of Patient Rights and Responsibilities.

The Charter focuses on the right to health as a fundamental human right.

Focus also continues to be placed on lifting the general health status of the population through the implementation of a wide range of programmes and the enhancement of existing ones such as the “Wellness Revolution”.
In 2017, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines ratified the World Trade Organization’s Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement, which will make it easier for the country to have a secure legal pathway to access affordable medicines.
The country continues to increase the human resource capacity of the health sector, employing additional doctors and nurses – for example a 71 percent increase in the number of doctors between 2018 and 2019 and a 29 percent increase in the number of nurses over the same period; and an increase of 123 percent in the purchase of medicines over 2018 – 2019 as a mechanism to ensure access to essential medicines.
COVID-19 in SVG Saint Vincent and the Grenadines was the only country in the ECCU that did not declare a state of emergency to manage the potential impact of COVID-19 but preferred to introduce other mitigation measures such as 14-day quarantines for passengers arriving from countries with COVID-19 outbreaks, allowing all businesses to continue with their regular activities7 .
Once the first domestic case was detected, tight social distancing and health measures to contain the spread of the virus were introduced.

As shown in Fig.

2 taken from the IMF Country Report of July 2021, infection rates started to increase at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, as tourists and nationals of SVG living abroad, started to return for the Christmas holidays.

Number of deaths also increased at the beginning of 2021.
By the end of May 2021, infection rate per 10,000 inhabitants was around 200 in SVG, comparable to other countries in the ECCU.

Prior to the first volcanic explosion, infection rates had fallen, and the authorities had started a vaccination campaign following the arrival of around 40,000 doses from India.

An additional 46,000 doses were committed through the COVAX Facility, 24,000 of which were delivered on April 6.

7 IMF Country Report No.
21/157, July 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 27 Figure 2: COVID-19 Cases and Deaths and infection Rate per 10,000 inhabitants St. Vincent and the Grenadines: COVID-19 COVID Cases and Deaths Apr 9 2021: Volcano Erupts Total cases (left axis) Total deaths (right axis) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 May -20 Jul -20 Sep -20 Nov -20 Jan -21 Mar -21 May -21 20 15 10 5 0 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 infection Rate, per 10,000 inhabitants (As of May 31,02021 & B d l r o W 8 - U C C E G T A A L A R S M R O K A M D D F G A N K N H C Sources: Ministry of Health and IMF staff calculations.
Sources: Johns Hopkins University and IMF staff calculations.

Source: IMF Country Report No.

21/157, July 2021 Dengue outbreak8 In an official bulletin dated 22 October 2020, the Surveillance Committee of the Ministry of Health, Wellness, and the Environment, MOHWE, had confirmed an increase in reported cases of Dengue infection in the country with 1,617 confirmed cases and eight fatalities9.
Persons within the 0-15 years age group accounted for most cases, with an attack rate of 2.6% in the 5-14 years age group.

As outlined in Table 1 below, persons within the 0-14 years age groups continue to account for most cases, with the highest attack rate of 3.54% in the 5-14 years age group.

Of the eight (8) deaths reported 62.5% are within the 0-15 age ranges.
As of 20 January 2021, there were 1,790 confirmed cases with 8 deaths, an 11% increase in the number of cases since the last published Surveillance Report in October 2020.

In terms of the most affected communities, the mosquito-borne disease continues to affect all health districts with 58% of cases reported occurring in persons who live in the Pembroke, Kingstown, and Calliaqua Health Districts.
The and Georgetown Chateaubelair, Marriaqua Health Districts are now ranked as 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively with the next 25% of confirmed cases.

This current number of Dengue cases highly surpasses previous years.

Figure 3 provides a breakdown of the distribution of the number of cases per health district.

This is based on data presented on Epi Week 46.


8 9 IFRC, SVG Dengue Outbreak, February 2021 MOHWE-SVG Syndromic Surveillance Report for the epidemiological week 46, October 2020 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 28 Figure 3: Impact of Dengue in the Health Districts is SVG NO.
OF CASES BY HEALTH DISTRICT Northern Grenadines 4% Southern Grenadine 1% Cedars 5% Unknown 7% Georgetown 8% Marriaqua 8% Chateaubelair 9% Pembroke 21% Kingstown 20% Calliaqua 17% Source: Ministry of Health Tropical Storm Elsa According to information received from the Scientists at the Belmont Volcano Observatory, lahar flows were observed on July 2nd within the river system in the Red and Orange Volcano Hazard Zones.
This dense mixture of ash and water occurs during heavy rain which creates mudflow that rushes down the volcano’s slopes faster than a river.

The forecast received from the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Services indicate that occasional showers are expected to continue until the end of the rainy season in November.

Additional affectation to the health system has not been confirmed yet due to either rain and/or lahars.

3.
3.

Assessment of Disaster effects Assumptions to estimate the DAMAGE defined as the economic cost to repair or rebuild infrastructure and physical assets to their condition prior to the disaster.

Despite the heavy ashfall, out of the seven facilities located in the red zone, only one, the old Sandy Bay Clinic, suffered severe damage, the rest of them showed moderate damage only.
Similarly, one facility located in the orange zone, the Georgetown Health Center showed moderate damage while the remaining 8 showed light damage only.

Facilities are considered to have suffered severe damage when up to 40% of the infrastructure has been affected, moderate damage up to 25% and light damage, up to 15%.

To estimate the cost to repair, same percentage is applied to initial cost of the building.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 29 There are two main typologies of health facilities: Clinics and Hospitals, unit costs for hospitals are higher due to the best quality of materials and construction.

Because of the lack of data, Google Maps was used to estimate the size of the buildings.

Some health facilities are not shown in the Google maps, in that case, an average area of 2500 sq.

ft. was used.

The cost per sq.


ft. of the facilities was assumed based on the typology and quality of construction.

Estimates from the Ministry of Transport for general buildings, US guides on the cost of hospitals/ clinics in rural/urban areas and a construction guides for the Caribbean and PAHO recent costs to retrofitting were used to estimate a unit cost for each typology: XCD 160/sq.

ft. for all the clinics and XCD 350/sq.

ft for hospitals.
ft for hospitals.

Cost to repair basic furniture, IT equipment and to replace medical stock was also included and only public sector infrastructure was assessed.

Table 2.
Estimates of Damage for the Health Sector10 Components Quantity Length ft Cost of the Facility prior to eruption (ECD) Level of destruction Light Moderate Severe Cost to repair or Rebuild Damage (ECD) Property Public (ECD) Health Facilities red&orange Fancy (1 floor) Owia ( clinic and Nurses quarters) Sandy Bay 1 ( existing clinic) Sandy Bay 2 ( newly renovated clinic)) Sandy Bay (doctors quarters) Sandy Bay ( nurses quarters) Overland Georgetown Hospital Georgetown Health Center (Modern Medical Diagnostic) Georgetown Clinic Troumaca Coulls Hill Rose Hall Chateaubelair Hospital SMART Byera South Rivers Medical Stock in premises red-zone Furniture and equipment red-zone Total 1 400,484.13 1 534,290.94 1 228,184.35 1 403,200.00 1 153,600.00 1 153,600.00 1 69,198.62 1 623,984.13 1 3,153,534.27 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 137,579.47 1NA 400,000.00 1NA 400,000.00 2NA 800,000.00 1 1 1 1 2 2,816,043.72 1 1 1 1NA Source: Health Assessment Team 10 Cost for the Modern Diagnostic Centre were derived by the team based on estimates provided at the time of generating this report in August
 202.
Further consideration/analysis can be given when defining a prioritized recovery action plan PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 30 According to the PDNA methodology, LOSS in the Health Sector should refer to the forgone income plus the additional costs to continue to provide the service, additional costs related to governance and increased risks.
Income loss due to closure of some services were approximately XCD 8,100 monthly, this would be at the revenue collection points such as Georgetown modern medical center.

Based on this information and assuming a closure of at least 6 months, forgone income was estimated at XCD 48,600.

Additional costs to clean the ash has been captured globally in the transport sector.
Other cost such as those for salaries paid to non-medical personnel that is not providing the service were considered, it amounts to XCD 120,000 and the additional costs to replace medical records for XCD 10,000.

Also costs incurred for emergency monitoring the quality of air amounts to XCD 179,550 Table 3.
Loss Estimates for the Health Sector Components Loss (XCD) Forgone income due to closure of Health Facilities Recover of medical records in Sandy Bay (additional cost) Salaries of non medical personnel in closed facilities for 3 months - red zone Emergency monitoring quality of air 48,600.00 10,000.00 120,000.00 179,550.00 Total 358,150.00 4.

Linking the effects to the human impact Source: Health Evaluation Population density and displacement in shelters will increase the risk of communicable diseases.
The National Emergency Management Organization, NEMO, reported that 22, 400 persons have been displaced from the orange and red zones, out of them, 4,456 persons are in shelters and 17,932 are staying in private homes.

To date, 200 healthcare workers have been displaced and are in shelters.

The migration of people from affected areas has created new challenges for disease surveillance (especially COVID-19) and health programming.
As cleanup efforts continue, the incidence of respiratory injuries and diseases could increase.

Of the registered displaced families, a large sample of 60.7% were reviewed for their reported medical conditions and 10.6% of the reviewed population were identified as either elderly, chronically ill, disabled or currently pregnant.

Disruption in the timely medical care and intervention of displaced patients could further complicate their health situation.
The existing public health sector professionals are now being deployed as an extension of the primary health care service network locally, but strictly to ensure the frequent physiological and psychological needs of the displaced families are addressed.

Anxiety, neuroses, and depression are acute public health problems following a disaster, families and communities need to continue receiving support.
Lack of access to Family Planning (FP) services increase unplanned pregnancies, unsafe can transmission of STIs abortions, and the PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 31 including HIV.

Likewise, lack of access to basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC) can increase the risk of maternal and neonatal death.
Increased risk of sexual violence during emergencies is associated with an increase in HIV and other STIs, and untreated trauma from gender-based violence (GBV) can lead to poor mental health outcomes, including depression and suicide.

Despite the complex situation, there was no national surge for health care demanded, so the system was not overwhelmed.

There were surges in attendance at some health districts due to persons sheltering in schools in that area.
But the demand for health care services remained just about the same according to national census.9 These impacts will continue to reduce the air and water quality, over time therefore quality, quantity, and coverage of potable water is critical along with proper sanitation systems.

On the other hand, food shortages, damage to food production or consumption of unhealthy foods may result, especially in the displaced populations adding to the chronic situation of patients with non- communicable deceases.

5.
5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy Recovery Needs Estimates of recovery needs include the cost of Damage in each one of the facilities plus improvements to reduce risk to a new eruption, this could include retrofitting of walls and roofing to make it more resistant to additional vertical weights, but also a full upgrade with multi hazard criteria for example floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides.

Suggested increase of 20% to account for all those improvements, basically roofs.
The Sandy Bay old clinic is an exception to this rule because the poor quality of the structure suggests at least 70% of additional costs for a substantive upgrading.

For those hospitals where costs to upgrade was already used, the assumption is that cost to upgrading has already been included so additional increase is used.
improvements Costs to include upgrading in technology and basic in the data collection and management for the health sector were also included as well as communication and information campaigns to prevent new outbreak of Dengue as people are allowed to progressively go back to the orange and red areas while the rainy season continues to hit the country.

Table 6 shows in detail recovery needs for the post volcanic eruption phase.
Total cost of recovery needs is of XCD 10,329,105 In terms of prioritization and sequencing, restoration of services in healthcare facilities, repair of damage with a vision of reducing vulnerabilities and increasing resilience is the immediate action to be taken.
Support to the affected population in terms of emotional support, provision of safe water and monitoring air quality, investments to reduce the probability of a new dengue outbreak as people move back to their homes in the red and orange areas and improving capacities in the Health Sector to prepare for future emergencies, are considered is the first and second years (2021-2023).
Funding required in the short run amounts to XCD 7,235,065.37.11 11 Personal communication Ms. Donna Bascombe, Director of Health Security, Ministry of Health, 29 July 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 32 Table 4.
Cost for recovery interventions in the short run (2021-2023) Components Recovery Needs (XCD) Short Term Repair infrastructure in improved conditions Recover of medical records in Sandy Bay (additional cost) Salaries of non-medical personnel in closed facilities for 3 months - red zone 3,544,703.00 10,000.00 120,000.00 Psychosocial services for the affected population (to include training SME’s) 200,000.00 Measures to reduce Dengue outbreak and actions to mitigate against outbreaks of food, water and vector borne diseases, when families return to their homes in red and orange zones Contingency Planning and Training Safe Water Supply Dialysis machines Modern Medical Centre, Georgetown Monitoring quality of air during recovery activities 680,000.00 320,000.00 1,066,500.00 483,862.37 12 810,000.00 Total 7,235,065.37 Interventions that can be initiated in the short term can be executed in phases and be completed in the intermediate and long run.
Among key interventions that could be extended to the 3rd and 4th year include, among others, the betterment of the data collection and management of health indicators, improved logistics, monitoring the quality of water and air in addition to those interventions needed to strengthen the health services.

The amount needed until completion in the long run is XCD 3,094,040 Table 5.
Cost for recovery interventions with short to long term perspective Components Recovery Needs (XCD) Improving data collection and management systems (Surveillance) Logistics data management and IT systems Increased MHPSS support and health campaigns to address the mental well-being of the community at risk Comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services and supplies Implement comprehensive evidence-based health promotion interventions.
Project management support for planning department MoH 200,000.00 1,355,000.00 298,100.00 325,200.00 390,000.00 135,500.00 390,240.00 Total 3,094,040.00 12 Cost doesn’t include XCD 550,000 as a replacement costs for the cooling system as this total was provided after report generation in August 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 33 Table 6.
Estimated Recovery Needs in the Health Sector Components P r Cost to repair or Rebuild Damage (ECD) Loss (ECD) 100,121.03 133,572.74 91,273.74 17,299.66 155,996.03 788,383.57 100,800.00 93,597.62 788,383.57 20,636.92 60,000.00 60,000.00 120,000.00 422,406.56 60,000.00 31,231.64 40,000.00 67,500.00 3,151,203.07 Health Facilities red&orange Fancy (1 floor) Owia ( clinic and Nurses quarters) Sandy Bay 1 ( existing clinic) Sandy Bay 2 ( newly renovated clinic)) Sandy Bay (doctors quarters) Sandy Bay ( nurses quarters) Overland Georgetown Hospital Georgetown Health Center (Modern Medical Diagnostic) Georgetown Clinic Troumaca Coulls Hill Rose Hall Chateaubelair Hospital SMART Byera South Rivers Medical Stock in premises red-zone Furniture and equipment red-zone Total Forgone income due to closure of Health Facilities Recover of medical records in Sandy Bay (additional cost) Salaries of non medical personnel in closed facilities for 3 months - red zone Psychosocial services for the affected population (to include training SME's) Measures to reduce Dengue outbreak and actions to mitigate against outbreaks of food, water and vectore borne diseases, when families return to their homes in red and orange zones data magamanent and IT systems Improving data collection and management systems (Surveillance) Contingency Planning and Training Logistics Emergency monitoring quality of air 179,550.00 Monitoring quality of air during recovery activities Safe Water Supply Dialysis machines Modern Medical Centre, Georgetown
 Increased MHPSS support and health campaigns to address the mental wellbeiing of the community at risk Comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services and supplies Implement comprehensive evidence-based health promotion interventions.
Project management support for planning departmet MoH Total 3,151,203 358,150.00 Needs (ECD) 120,145.24 160,287.28 155,165.36 20,759.59 187,195.24 946,060.28 120,960.00 93,597.62 788,383.57 24,764.30 72,000.00 72,000.00 144,000.00 422,406.56 72,000.00 37,477.96 Comments Roofing retroffitting to withstand ashfall and hurricanes additional 20% is considered Due to severe damage 70% increase is considered Roofing retroffitting to withstand ashfall and hurricanes additional 20% is considered already retroffited SMART Roofing needs to be retroffited to withstand posible ashfall and hurricanes additional 20% is considered already retroffited SMART Roofing needs to be retroffited to withstand posible ashfall and hurricanes additional 20% is considered 40,000.00 replacement of stock 67,500.00 replacement basic medical and IT equipment 3,544,703.00 48,600.00 This loss is not compensated 10,000.00 10,000.00 2 medical staff for 3 months (yearly ECD20k 120,000.00 120,000.00 Salaries being paid to admin personnel, cleaning, maintenance even if premises are closed 3 persons for 6 months in 4 clinics DDSA suggestes 0.2 mn page 78 200,000.00 680,000.00 This program requieres ECD 1.7 million, 60% of it is financed already 298,100.00 200,000.00 320,000.00 Software developer in SVG, software updates to include new software licenses and subscriptions.
Hiring data collectors, data collection equipment and additional training (after EWARS), hiring consultant to help MoH to develop the national strategy, creating and fund surveillance officer positions to support surveillance in the regions.

2 trainings in 5 locations, twice a year, for 4 years @ ECD 8k/training 1,355,000.00 Construction of new Logistics warehouse for storage Baseline air quality monitoring to gather air pollution data.
Inform public health and build capacities towards a robust air quality monitoring strategy.

Monitoring of PM2.5; PM10; SO2, H2S and met data to assess air pollution levels and inform public health decisions.

24 months monitoring Quotation received from MoH in the amount of USD 178,547.00 Capacity building for health professionals and non-specialized personnel.

Increased availability of mental health services.


Psychosocial campaigns and promotion Syndromic management of HIV, STIs, clinical management of rape, SRH supplies, capacity building of service providers For minimal of 24 months.
810,000.00 1,066,500.00 483,862.37 325,200.00 390,000.00 135,500.00 390,240.00 10,329,105.37 Source: Health Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 34 Recovery Strategy Short term recovery strategies in the health sector will target the restoration of services and health supplies in healthcare facilities, repair of damage, replacement of equipment and identifying temporary facilities for use during reconstruction.
Work should focus on the main health facilities, including the Evesham Health Centre and the Modern Medical Centre in Georgetown, which both provide dialysis and other essential medical services, and the 4 health care facilities which are hard to access in the red zone.

Mitigation measures are to be implemented in existing and repaired healthcare facilities during this hurricane season, considering that permanent structures will not be completed during this season.
In the medium to long-term, the strategy will include building resilience in physical structures and in health systems, making use of affordable strategies and technology.

Health policies, legislation will be reviewed with the lens of climate resilience.

Communication and health information systems must be made resilient using affordable technology and equipment.
In the reconstruction to healthcare facilities, it is recommended that PAHO Smart Hospitals standards for resilience and greening, and low energy and water consumption are incorporated.

Healthcare facilities roofs should be designed to withstand its self-weight, and other loads which may act on the roof such as live loads, wind and seismic in accordance with OECS Building Code 7th Edition 2016 (accessed via https://www.

oecs.org/ ).
oecs.org/ ).

The current building codes do not account for volcanic ash loading, however this risk should be treated as an additional live load on the roof.

Data on the ash loading and densities from the 2021 La Soufriere eruption will be available on the PAHO website (www.paho.org) later this year.
Additionally, windows that are hurricane resistant are completely sealed when closed, this doubles to prevent ash from penetrating the building which reduces the risk of damage to medical equipment and interior furnishings.

Remote facilities that may become inaccessible should be self-sustainable with back-up power supply, water storage, telecommunication, and adequate stocks to continue services.
Facilities in the orange and red zones need to be continuous cleaned and sanitized internally and externally to provide a safe environment for patients and staff.

The cleaning protocols can be used from the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network https://www.ivhhn.

org/information should be used as important guidance.
Assessment of air pollution health risks due to volcanic ash should be conducted to inform public health decisions and relocations to these zones as well as to monitor impacts for outdoor cleaning procedures.

The human resource strategy for nurses and public health staff must be reviewed to make use of persons trained and unemployed.
An OECS regional approach to health worker training and exchange should be developed along with regional risk sharing strategies to reduce evacuation and overseas healthcare costs.

Use of telemedicine and mechanisms for sharing of key specialists between islands should be explored.

Faced with many health priorities e.g.

COVID-19 pandemic, etc, the MoH is already overstretched to deliver the immediate repair and required retrofitting works in healthcare facilities.
It needs additional technical management support to ensure that the works are completed efficiently and effectively to aid the return of the displaced populations and provide critical health services to the affected population, including comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services and supplies.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 35 for disparities between these systems in use, it is advised that a technical assessment of these systems by an expert Software Developer to determine the most practical options will be conducted including for reproductive health commodity security.

The MoH requires immediate financial support for the development of a comprehensive long-term storage or warehousing solution to accommodate both routine and emergency supplies.
This is a long-standing problem however the situation has been severely compounded over the last eighteen months by the impact of the COVID-19, the La Soufriere volcanic eruption and the passage of Hurricane Elsa.

These events have exacerbated the congested storage situation experienced in Kingstown by CMS and HEOC.

It is impractical to consider the long-term lease of a storage facility at the current rates of between $1.2 to $1.5 US per sq ft. as the final solution to the MoH storage challenges.
It would be a more prudent investment to support the MoH with the planning and construction of a new warehouse facility that will fully meet their current and projected requirements, including the fluctuating rapid increase/decrease of storage requirements required to accommodate emergency and disaster response supplies.

Increased environmental monitoring and vector control are also required to address the increased risks.
The activities of the vector control program in controlling the dengue outbreak which began in the early part of 2021, were halted as the response to the volcanic eruptions took priority.

Dengue continues to circulate and, to prevent further outbreaks, the environmental health department needs to strengthen its capacity for monitoring environmental conditions and undertaking actions to mitigate against outbreaks of food- water-and vector-borne diseases.
The need exists for additional environmental health and vector Mental Health is essential to the overall well- being, functioning, and resilience of individuals and communities recovering from the direct and indirect impact of the volcanic eruption.
Emphasis is placed on developing sustainable coordination mechanisms; scaling up in health professionals and non-specialized personnel; ensuring the availability of mental health and psychosocial support services; whilst ensuring social communication and availability of basic services and security.

Increased psychosocial support and health campaigns are needed to address the mental wellbeing of the community at risk.
training An increase in supply of health workers is needed, because health care workers need time off as well as support for recovery.

surveillance Additionally, there is an urgent need to enhance the system, a more diligent management of chronic diseases and increased visits in shelter and homes.
With the support from PAHO and CARPHA, The Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) is currently being implemented and tested, and this system should be expanded in the intermediate and long term to boost the existing surveillance mechanism, especially due to the response to the ongoing displaced persons in shelters and the challenge to differentiate between COVID-19 and respiratory diseases symptoms.
A 3-5-year strategy should be implemented to strengthen the capacity of surveillance officers at central and regional levels on basic concepts of field epidemiology including surveillance, data management and analysis (e.g.

epidemiological bulletins, annual reports) and outbreak investigation.

several systems supply chain There are information in country, including a pharmaceutical and medical supplies management system.
Because of the potential logistics in place PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 36 use of computerized system to improve data collection and analysis should be a high priority to strengthen preparedness and response capacity.

See also PAHO/WHO Multi-Country Cooperation Strategy for Barbados and Eastern Caribbean Countries 2018-2024, strategic priority 5 and the National Health Sector Strategic Plan (2019-2025), strategic objective 2.2.
(to improve quality of primary, secondary and emergency management services).

from lessons include Continency plans at the health care facility level should the La Soufriere volcano eruption on Montserrat.

See: Consequences of long-term volcanic activity for essential services in Montserrat: challenges, https://mem.
and adaptations, lyellcollection.org/content/39/1/471 resilience: control officers, vehicles, insecticide application equipment, insecticides, rodenticides, PPEs and communications materials for dissemination of information to the public.
In support of both the Ministries of Health in SVG and Barbados, PAHO is currently implementing the short-term Air Quality Monitoring (AQM) proposal which should provide a baseline to facilitate the intermediate and long term AQM plan to assess air pollution health risks over population living in conditions of vulnerability.
Contingency plans at both the healthcare facilities and the national levels need to be updated, the draft National Health Sector including Strategic Plan and the National Health Disaster Management Plan.
The further implementation of the incident command system to run the Health Emergency Operations Centre and the PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports : 4 e r u g i F PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 38 Recovery6.
Sources of information, references 1. International Volcanic Health Hazard Network Volcanic ash information: https://www.ivhhn.org/information 2.

PAHO/WHO Multi-Country Cooperation Strategy for Barbados and Eastern Caribbean Countries 2018-2024 3.

National Health Sector Strategic Plan St. Vincent and The Grenadines 2019-2025 (Draft May 2019) 4.

PAHO Smart Toolkit: https://www.paho.org/en/health-emergencies/smart-hospitals/smart-hospitals- toolkit 5.
Consequences of long-term volcanic activity for essential services in Montserrat: challenges, adaptations and resilience: https://mem.lyellcollection.org/content/39/1/471 6.

PAHO Air Quality Monitoring Proposal SVG and Barbados (July 2021) 7.

Detailed Damage Sector Analysis, DDSA, Report of the Explosive Eruption of La Soufriere in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, May 4, 2021 8.
Sustainable Development Goals Voluntary National Review, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, July 2020 Operational Status of Health facilities as of 10 April 2021 by PAHO Annex 1 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 39 Annex 2 Service Delivery by Levels of Care Level of Care Designation of Service Type of Services Primary Care • • Health Centres (37) • Maternal and child health Polyclinics (3) • Management of communicable and chronic diseases, • Community mental health • Oral health • • • • • Pharmaceutical services Health promotion Food and nutrition information and education Food safety, vector control, water quality control, solid waste management Primary care Environmental Health • Rural Hospitals • Modern Medical • Outpatient care Primary/Secondary Care Complex Secondary Care Milton Cato Memorial Hospital (211 beds) Rehabilitative Care Mental Health Rehabilitation Centre (182 beds) • • • • Laboratory and radiology services Nephrology, oncology, internal medicine, ambulatory services Specialty care in internal medicine, general surgery, paediatrics, obstetrics/gynaecology, ENT, orthopaedics, oncology, ophthalmology, pathology, radiology, pharmacology, and physical rehabilitation Acute and rehabilitative mental health care services Lewis Punnett Home (102 beds) • Health and social care of the elderly Source: Health Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 40 Annex 3 Health Sector Team Composition David Latchman Charmaine Bailey-Rodgers SVG Ministry of Health
 Planning SVG Ministry of Health Medical registrar Neri James SVG Ministry of Health, Environmental Donna Joyette Bascombe Clemens Buter Melvin Tebbutt (WASH; Damage Assessments) Patrice Lawrence-Williams (MHPSS) Denise Blackstock Karen Poslon (Environmental Health) Benjamin Puertas (HSS) Juan J. Castillo (Air quality) Dorji Tshewang (Surveillance) Derek Hardy (Logistics) Jeannette Fernandez SVG Ministry of Health Director Health Security PAHO PAHO PAHO UNFPA PAHO PAHO PAHO PAHO PAHO UNDP - Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 41 Housing Sector 1.
Summary The Housing Sector is one of the most affected by the eruption of La Soufriére with 18% of all the dwellings in the country being in the red, orange, and yellow zones.

Several houses will have to be relocated given the imminent risk to continued ash fall and other hazards such as strong winds and heavy rain.
With regards to the typology of the houses, those with metal sheet roof (90.8% of the stock) are the most vulnerable to ash fall given the additional loads that they will need to withstand due to the ash.

According to the 2012 Housing and Population Census, Saint Vincent has a total population of 109,991 persons including 56,419 males and 53,572 females.
According to their living conditions, the population in the islands comprise 109,188 people living in private dwellings, 85 people living in a state of homelessness and 718 living across various institutions.

is The construction materials of the houses an its important factor to consider due to vulnerability to different natural hazards that may impact the country.
Figures taken from the census indicate that 90.8% of the houses in the island are built with metal sheet roofs, while 7.3% are built with concrete and 1.8% are built with other types of materials.

Metal sheet roofs which are the most prominent in the islands, are also the type of structure susceptible to suffer the greatest impacts when facing the ashfall from the volcanic eruption, given the additional loads that they will need to withstand.
Reports available show that during the volcanic eruption, houses on the main island of St. Vincent were affected and the degree of impact was clearly correlated to their radial proximity to the volcano.

A classification was established ranking areas from the greatest to the least affected using four colours: a) red identifying the most affected, b) orange identifying the moderately affected, c) yellow identifying the mildly affected, and d) green identifying the minimally affected.
The damage from this event is estimated at XCD 263.5 million in private property, while loss and additional costs amount to XCD 32.3 million, including USD 30.5 million in the public sector and XCD 1.9 million in the private sector.
It is important to mention that the most affected area (identified in red) is also the area with the fewest dwellings, while the least affected area (identified in green), which also has the highest concentration of houses, shows also that dwellings were only slightly affected (less than 5% of the house with some level of damage).
Therefore, the percentage of housing damage with relation to the total number of houses in the country, is not concentrated in the area closest to the volcano but rather spread out.

Notwithstanding, all the houses that were moderately or severely damaged are PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 42 in the Red Zone (Georgetown and Sandy Bay), Orange (Chateaubelair) and Yellow Zone (Colonaire).
In addition, 91.5% of the houses in the Red Zone are constructed with metal-sheet roofs, 92.3% in the Orange Zone and 92.2% in the Yellow Zone, compared with the national average of 90.8%.. Damage Loss TOTAL Table 1: Damage and loss summary PRIVATE 263,542,495 1,859,095 265,401,589 PUBLIC 30,474,269 30,474,269 Source: Housing sector evaluation team.
Total 263,542,495 32,333,364 295,875,858 The additional weight of ash on the already weak roofing was the cause of the level of affectation observed in the housing sector.

This produced rubble comprised of metal sheets and wood that had to be collected and disposed adding to the costs that this sector had to bear to also clean the volcanic ash accumulated on the roofs and surrounding areas.
Important to consider the potential impact in the environment that needs to be captured when analysing this cross-cutting issues as per the PDNA methodology.

Loss estimates in the housing sector are grouped under three main categories: a) costs for removal of debris, b) costs associated to the provision of temporary housing therefore operation and maintenance of shelters, and c) foregone income from rental housing.
Total loss amounts to XCD 32.3 million, of which XCD 12.3 corresponds to debris removal, XCD 18.1 million to the operation and maintenance of shelters and XCD 1.9 million to rental housing.

In terms of ownership, of the total loss, XCD 30.4 million was within the public sector while only XCD 1.9 million occurred within the private sector.
In terms of human impact, the displaced population as a result of the impact on the housing sub-sector is another important factor to conside., (18% of During the emergency a total of 5,535 households were displaced which represents about 19,914 individuals the population).

This displaced population had to adapt to new living conditions in government led or private shelters which resulted in their need to substantially change their daily routine of activities.
From the beginning of the emergency to the date of this report, 1,981 individuals from 1,227 households were accommodated in government shelters, including 647 children and 1,137 individuals from vulnerable groups.

Recovery needs in the sector were estimated based on the analysis of damage and loss.
The concept of building back better was applied to counteract not only the damage caused by the volcanic ash fall, but also to mitigate the impacts of any future catastrophic events including hurricanes and storms.

In this context, an additional 20% was applied to replacement values to cover the cost of inflation of construction materials and technical improvements in building constructions to ensure the adherence to national building codes and standards.
The total recovery needs amount to XCD 355.9 million, out of which XCD 296.4 million corresponds to home improvement, XCD 30.4 million for incurred expenses and XCD 29.1 million for the construction of new houses that must be relocated.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 43 In the short term, recovery needs are estimated to be valued at XCD 190.1 million.
In the medium term, recovery needs are estimated at XCD 165.8 million, which includes improvements required to those homes located in the green zone that were affected by the volcanic eruption.
In an effort to lower the risks of susceptibility of some house´s future disaster risks, it is necessary to relocate 375 homes that are located in highly disaster-prone areas, non-suitable for housing construction, that already suffered severe damage during the last volcanic eruption, this represents a cost of XCD 29.1 million.

2.
2.

Context or Sector Background According to the 2012 Housing and Population Census, Saint Vincent has a total population of 109,991 people, including 56,419 males and 53,572 females.

According to their living conditions, the population in the islands is grouped into three categories including 109,188 people living in private dwellings, 85 people living in a state of homelessness and 718 living across various institutions13.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is comprised of 13 census divisions, 11 of which are located on the mainland.

Those on the mainland accounted for 90.6% of the household population in 2012.

The census divisions of Kingstown, Suburbs of Kingstown, Calliaqua and Marriaqua, account for most of the countries household population.

Sandy Bay remains the least populated census the division, accounting household population.
Kingstown, Suburbs of Kingstown, Calliaqua and Marriaqua therefore continue to account for the largest proportion of the country’s population (see Building Footprint 2012).

Over time, the proportion of the population living in the Kingstown and Marriaqua census divisions decreased, while those of Suburbs of Kingstown and Calliaqua increased.

Kingstown and Marriaqua, specifically, recorded declines of for only 2.4% of 13 14 Housing and population census Saint Vincent, 2012.

Ibidem.
Ibidem.

6.0% and 5.5%, respectively, while Calliaqua and Suburbs of Kingstown registered increases of 7.0% and 5.8%, respectively.

intercensal period, several low- During the income housing projects were implemented, allowing more people from vulnerable groups to own their own homes.

Additionally, commercial banking institutions introduced credit financing programmes, which gave public servants access to loans for housing constructions, with concessional levels of security/collateral.
Consequently, the proportion of Owner-occupied dwelling units increased from 75.7% (23,130) in 2001, to 78.7% (28,987) in 2012.

The Sandy Bay census division had the highest concentration of Owner-occupied dwellings (95.9%).

The Southern Grenadines had the largest concentration of rented dwelling units (28.1%), based on its concentration of migrant workers from other divisions, while the Sandy Bay census division had the lowest concentration (1.1%), as it is the furthest away from urban centres.
An additional 0.2% of households were rented from the Government during 2012, an increase from the 0.1% of 2001.

Furthermore, 8.4% of the households lived in rent-free dwellings, 0.1% in leased dwellings and 0.6% in informal human settlements (Squatted)14.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 44 Source: Housing and population census, Saint Vincent, 2012.

For residential constructions, concrete and blocks were the most common type of material used on walls (69.8%).
The Chateaubelair and Barrouallie census divisions had the largest concentration of Concrete and block houses, with 84.2% and 82.0% of dwellings, respectively.

In other census divisions, the proportion of the housing stock constructed from this material ranged from 65.1% to 74.0%, except for Sandy Bay, with a concentration of 50.4%.

Wood was the next most common type of construction material, accounting for 9.8% of dwellings.
The Southern Grenadines had the largest concentration of wooden houses (13.5%), while the Chateaubelair division had the lowest concentration (4.5%).
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 45 Baseline Table 2: total assets Description Quantity Average area (Sm) Unit cost Unit cost per house Total assets (XCD) Percent- age of rental houses House- hold size (persons) Division Kingstown Suburbs of Kings- town Calliaqua Marriaqua Bridgetown Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Layou Barrouallie Chateaubelair Northern Grena- dines Southern Grena- dines Household goods in urban houses average estimated cost of household goods Totals Global 3240 147,021,515 4,371,862,691 Source: Housing and population census St. Vincent 2012, plus updating percentage of 11.1% according to OpenStreetMap imagery 2021.
The materials that comprise these building is an important factor to consider as they can cause a dwelling to become more susceptible to natural disasters.

90.8% of the houses in the island are built with metal sheet roofs according to census information, while 7.3% are built with concrete and only 1.8% are built with other types of materials.
Metal sheet roofs which are the most prominent on the island, are also the types of structures that suffer the greatest impacts when facing different hazards such as heavy rain, strong winds or ash fall, like in the case of the recent eruption.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 46 Census Division Kingstown Suburbs of Kingstown Calliaqua Marriaqua Bridgetown Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Layou Barrouallie Chateaubelair Northern Grenadines Southern Grenadines Table 3: roof type per division Roof Type Sheet metal Concrete Other Total Source: Housing and population census St. Vincent 2012, plus updating percentage of 11.1% according to OpenStreetMap imagery 2021.
3.

Assessment of Disaster effects Reports on the ground show that during the volcanic eruption, houses on the main island were affected and the degree of impact was clearly correlated to their radial proximity to the volcano.

A classification was established ranking areas from the greatest to the least affected using four colours: a) red identifying the most affected, b) orange identifying the moderately affected, c) yellow identifying the mildly affected, and d) green identifying the minimally affected.
The damage from this event is estimated at XCD 263.5 million to private property, while loss and additional costs amounts to XCD 32.3 million, including USD 30.5 million in the public sector and USD 1.9 million in the private sector.

It is important to note that the most affected area (identified in red) is also the area with the fewest dwellings, while the lightly affected area (identified in green) has the highest concentration of dwellings (includes 5 % of the value of the assets only).
Therefore, the percentage of housing damage with relation to the total number of houses in the country, is not concentrated only in the area closest to the volcano, but rather widely spread.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 47 Table 4: Damage and loss summary Item Damage Loss Public Private Public Private Estimation of Damage to Infrastructure and Phys- ical Assets a) Houses with severe damage b) Houses partially destroyed (moderate damage) b) Houses partially destroyed (mild damage) c) Household goods Estimation of Change in Economic Flows (CEF)/ Losses Losses by affected rental houses Removal debris Improvement and maintenance of shelters 58,968,555 49,796,206 138,218,543 16,559,190 1,859,095 12,349,165 6,713,001 Total 0 263,542,495 30,474,269 1,859,095 Source: housing sector evaluation team.
To estimate the damage and loss caused by the volcanic eruption, housing data was classified by division and subsequently a specific category, level of affectation was assigned based on according the geolocation, assigning a to percentage of low affectation to all the dwellings that are in the green strips.

On the other hand, information from the DDSA15 report was used to identify the other four divisions that include the red to yellow strips.
To estimate the value of the houses, the information from the baseline and the local reference was used according to the type of construction and the average housing area by division.

Subsequently, the damage percentages were applied as follows: • Mild – No significant damage: the structure is usable and can be occupied.

Required repairs are minimal.

Examples: some shingles have blown off the roof or the roof covering has loosened.

Windows are broken.

5%.


• Moderate – Minor damage: the structure is usable and can be occupied after taking urgent temporary measures.

The owner will probably need assistance with repairs.

Examples: parts of the roof covering are missing.

Windows and doors are blown out.

The structure has shifted in its foundation.


25% 15 Detailed Damage Sector Assessment prepared by the GoSVG with support from CDEMA, June 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 48 • Severe– Major damage: the structure is not usable and cannot be occupied until repairs are made.

Example: Roof covering has blown off exposing the interior of the structure.

Windows and doors are missing, and walls are damaged.
40% PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 49 Table 5: Damage by division Description Quantity Damage level Mild Moderate Severe Total dam- ages (XCD) % Division Kingstown Suburbs of Kingstown Calliaqua Marriaqua Bridgetown Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Layou Barrouallie Chateaubelair Northern Grenadines Southern Grenadines 1,898 3,071 1,809 Household goods in houses Estimated cost of household goods 5,111 Totals 1,728 136 34 23,145,248 - - 16,559,190 263,542,495 Source: housing sector evaluation team with information of the DDSA report and the Department of Housing.
The additional weight of ash on the already weak roofing was the cause of the impact observed in the housing sector.

This produced rubble comprised of metal sheets and wood that had to be collected and disposed adding to the costs that this sector had to bear to also clean the volcanic ash accumulated in the roofs and surrounding areas.

Important to consider the potential impact in the environment that needs to be captured when analysing this cross-cutting issues as per the PDNA methodology.
Loss estimates in the housing sector correspond to three main categories: a) costs for removal of rubble, b) costs associated to the provision of temporary housing therefore operation and maintenance of shelters, and c) foregone income from rental housing.

Total loss amounts to XCD 32.3 million, of which XCD 12.3 corresponds to debris removal, XCD 18.1 million to the operation and maintenance of shelters and XCD 1.9 million to rental housing.
Of the total losses, XCD 30.4 million correspond to the public sector while only XCD 1.9 million correspond to the private sector.
3.6% 4.6% 4.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Table 6: Total Losses Description Quantity of houses Damage level (houses) Mild Moderate Severe Debris removal due to houses affected 41,216 PAGE 50 Total losses (XCD) 12,349,165 Kingstown Suburbs of Kingstown Calliaqua Marriaqua Bridgetown Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Layou Barrouallie Chateaubelair Northern Grenadines Southern Grenadines Shelter’s maintenance 4,863 4,824 9,303 2,754 2,320 2,469 2,475 738 2,545 2,147 1,898 4,863 4,824 9,303 2,754 2,320 - 1,950 558 2,545 2,147 1,728 - 1,359,156 - 1,017,532 - 2,324,025 - - 10 60 2,469 515 120 - - - - 523,977 560,452 2,489,810 1,345,268 445,898 570,370 555,416 136 34 1,157,262 - - - - - - Operation of shelters (person/day) Pay for those staying in hotels & guest houses incl.
their meals Purchase prepackaged food boxes to dis- tribute (MinSocDev) Food vouchers for vulnerable people Reinvigorate and restart the popular love box program Enhance the work done by the Ministry of Social Development Losses by affected rental houses Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Chateaubelair 299 324 15 217 Totals 18,125,104 7,375,104 2,500,000 2,250,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,859,095 724,190.8 614,548.2 28,839.2 491,516.3 32,333,364 Source: housing sector evaluation team with information of the DDSA report and the Department of Housing.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 51 4.

Linking the effects to the human impact impact, the displaced In terms of human population is another important factor to consider.

82 shelters were activated on April 8th 2021, during the emergency, a total of 5,535 households were displaced which represents about 19,914 individuals (18% of the population).
This displaced population had to adapt to new living conditions in government led or private shelters which resulted in their need to substantially change their daily activities.

1,227 households and 1,981 individuals were recorded in government shelters including 647 children and 1,137 people from vulnerable groups.

Similarly, as the COVID 19 pandemic escalated, many daily activities changed and were carried out in the homes.
Therefore, households that were affected by the volcanic eruption and that had to relocate to shelters with limited access to digital tools also found their economic and productive activities affected.

This includes activities such as remote work, virtual education, and family life.

5.
5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy The registered damages and losses were used as a basis to estimate the recovery needs, and in the concept of building back better was applied to counteract not only the damages caused by the volcanic ash fall but also any future catastrophic events including hurricanes and storms, applying an additional 20% to replacement values.
The needs amount to XCD 355.9 million, which corresponds to XCD 296.4 million for home improvement, XCD 30.4 million for incurred expenses and XCD 29.1 million for the construction of houses that must be relocated.

To reduce future disaster risks, it is necessary to relocate 375 homes that are in non- suitable housing areas and that suffered severe damage during the last volcanic eruption, this represents a cost of XCD 29.1 million.
The expenses already incurred such as the removal of rubble and the operation and maintenance of shelters are included within the recovery needs, since these expenses were covered by the government.

Damages from household goods and private losses from rental housing have not been included within the needs, as there are no government programs to address this type of costs.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 52 Table 7: Recovery needs Item DaDamage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Justification.
Needs coming from the analysis of effects and impacts.

Recovery Needs (XCD) 1.

Housing improvement 1.1 Kingstown 27,183,114 1.2 Suburbs of Kingstown 20,350,646 46,480,492 10,479,535 11,209,033 49,796,206 6,905,355 8,917,952 11,407,406 11,108,318 23,145,248 16,559,190 1.3 Calliaqua 1.4 Marriaqua 1.5 Bridgetown 1.6 Colonaire 1.7 Georgetown 1.8 Sandy Bay 1.9 Layou 1.10 Barrouallie 1.11 Chateaubelair 1.12 Household goods 3.

Debris removal 4.

Shelter maintenance 5.


Risk reduction 5.1 houses to be relocated (375) 6.
Losses by affected rental houses Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Yellow zone Red zone Red zone Green zone Green zone Orange zone Private damage 12,349,165 Executed 18,125,104 Executed 32,619,737 24,420,775 55,776,590 12,575,442 13,450,839 59,755,448 32,286,426 10,701,542 13,688,887 13,329,981 27,774,298 12,349,165 18,125,104 Risk area 29,140,635 1,859,095 Private loss Total 263,542,495 32,333,364 355,994,870 Source: housing sector evaluation team.
Based on the priorities described above, recovery needs are grouped in the short and medium term.

The renovations and improvement of the dwellings should be carried out as a priority in the areas defined with colours red, orange, and yellow.

Recovery needs in short term amount to XCD 190.1 million.

In the medium term, improvements to the houses located in the green zone have been included, with a total of XCD 165.8 million.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 53 Table 8: Recovery needs prioritization Intervention/Activity Short Run* (XCD) Intermedi- ate* (XCD) Long Run * (XCD) Priority (1 a 5) Comment Cost (XCD) 32,619,737 24,420,775 55,776,590 12,575,442 13,450,839 13,688,887 13,329,981 1.

Housing improvement 1.1 Kingstown 1.2 Suburbs of Kingstown 1.3 Calliaqua 1.4 Marriaqua 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Bridgetown Colonaire Georgetown Sandy Bay Layou 1.10 Barrouallie 1.11 Chateaubelair 3.
Debris removal 59,755,448 32,286,426 10,701,542 27,774,298 12,349,165 4.

Shelter maintenance 18,125,104 5.


Risk reduction 5.1 houses to be relocated (375) 29,140,635 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 4 4 2 1 1 1 Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone Green zone 32,619,737 24,420,775 55,776,590 12,575,442 13,450,839 Yellow zone 59,755,448 Red zone Red zone 32,286,426 10,701,542 Green zone 13,688,887 Green zone 13,329,981 Orange zone 27,774,298 Executed Executed 12,349,165 18,125,104 Risk area 29,140,635 Totals 190,132,618 165,862,252 355,994,870 * To be agreed with the Government.
Source: housing sector evaluation team.

6.Sources of information, references 1.

Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (Grade) Report, World Bank Gpurl D-Ras Team, April 2021.

2.

Housing and population census 2012, Saint Vincent.

3.

River Crossing and Housing Infrastructure Detailed Damage Assessment, Ministry of Transport, Works, Lands & Physical Planning, Government of Saint Vincent, July 2021 4.

Situation reports La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent, from CDEMA, April 2021.
Evaluation team Tyrone Ballah, SVG Department of Housing · · Mr. Saskia Scotland, SVG Department of Housing · Winshell Norzeron, ECHO · Osmar Velasco, World Bank - Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 54 Productive Sectors The Productive Sector, within the context of the PDNA, is comprised of four (4) sub-sectors: Agriculture, Tourism, Commerce and Industry.
Agriculture includes Crops, Livestock, Fisheries, Forestry and Apiculture.

In the conduct of this PDNA, the focus is on the Agriculture and Tourism Sub-sectors.

PAGE 55 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Executive Summary The La Soufriére Volcano in St. Vincent and the Grenadines became active on 27th December 2020.

The activity involved a series of effusive eruptions resulting in the formation of a new lava dome.
On April 9th 2021, the volcano transitioned to explosive eruptions which created numerous ashfall, pyroclastic flows and lahars or mudflows.

The heightened volcanic activity prompted the immediate evacuation of persons from communities located in the red and orange zones.

Information from the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) indicates that thirteen thousand three hundred and three (13,303) persons have been evacuated and registered.
There are ap- proximately 2,875 registered farmers and 308 fisher-folks who have been dislocated from the red and orange zones and who are among the evacuees.

Additionally, some farmers and fishers from the Yellow Zone, especially on the leeward side, have been evacuated.
The volcanic eruptions have directly and indirectly affected agriculture, forestry, fishing, apiculture and agricultural infrastructure throughout the country resulting in damage and loss ranging from as low as 7% in the Green Zone to 100% in a substantial number of commodities in the Red and Orange Zones.

Table 1.1 summarizes the estimated damage and loss by sectors.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 56 Table 1.1: Total Effect of La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption on the Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Description Sub-sector Total Damage (XCD ’000’) Total Loss (XCD ’000’) Total Damage and Loss (XCD’000’) Crops Livestock Fisheries Apiculture Forestry 98,685.58 116,036.54 17,350.96 1,509.01 718.10 217.30 1,653.62 5,013.76 377.30 3,162.63 5,732.86 594.60 104,619.66 230,145.29 84,053.01 20,566.65 Total 103,848.38 126,296.91 Source: Agriculture Evaluation Team The assessment report indicates the estimated value of total damage and loss sustained by the crops, livestock, apiculture, fisheries and forestry sectors is approximately XCD 230.145 million.
The breakout of detailed estimates for each sub-sector is presented in Annex 3 and summarized in the body of the document.

2.

Context and Background of the Agricultural and Related Sectors 2.1 Performance of the Agricultural Sector The agricultural sector’s16 real growth has fluctuated over the last decade (2010 – 2020), with a downward tendency, especially after 2016 as can be observed from Figure 2.1.
However, although the fisheries sub-sector has demonstrated some level of fluctuations over the same period, real growth of this sub-sector has shown a significant upward tendency.
Notwithstanding the negative trend in the growth of the overall sector,17 it continues to play an important part in the economic life of the country through its contribution to GDP, employment, foreign exchange earnings and more recently and importantly, through its linkages and impacts on the health and tourism sectors and the achievement of food and nutrition security for the population.
16 17 Crops, Livestock, Apiculture and Forestry Crops, Livestock, Apiculture, Forestry and Fisheries PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 57 Figure 2.1: Real GDP Growth Rate in Agriculture(Crops, Livestock Forestry) , Fisheries and Overall Economy (2010 - 2021) Source: ECCB Database The real growth rate of the various sub-sectors is presented in Figure 2.2.

Projections were for positive growth rates in the various sub-sectors in 2021.
Figure 2.2: Real GDP Growth Rate of Agriculture Sub-sectors (2010-2021) Source: ECCB Database The contributions of the various sub-sectors to overall GDP as well as to total agricultural GDP are presented in Figures 2.3 and 2.4, respectively.

The Figures demonstrate the importance of the ‘Other Crops’ sub-sector to the agricultural sector and the declining role of the banana industry in the socio-economic development of the country.
Historically, banana was the single most important agricultural commodity produced in SVG.

However, the sub-sector has experienced a significant decline in its contribution to GDP, foreign exchange earnings and employment.

The significant change in the fortune of the banana industry over the past years was strongly influenced by external and PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 58 domestic factors.
The main external factor relates to the loss of preferential access to the traditional UK market.

The major domestic factors include severe droughts and outbreaks of the Moko disease and the Black Sigatoka Disease, resulting in not only a reduction in the area under banana cultivation but also reduced output per acre.
Figure2.3: % Contribution of Sub-sectors to Overall Real GDP (2010-2021) Source: ECCB Database Figure 2.4: % Contribution of Agriculture Sub-sectors to Overal Real Agriculture GDP (2010, 2015, 2020 and 2021) Source: ECCB Database PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 59 The ‘Other Crops’ sub-sector includes plantains, (dasheen, eddoes, yams, sweet root crops tannia, potatoes, ginger, arrowroot, cassava, carrots and peanuts), fruits and vegetables and fruit trees.
This sub-sector has partially filled the void created by the decline of the banana industry and has been the major contributor to agricultural GDP (accounting for an estimated 69.5% of overall agricultural GDP in 2020).

The livestock sub-sector is small but growing, relative to crops, with the production of poultry, pigs, cattle and small ruminants (mainly for meat) being the main activities.

Its contribution to GDP, foreign exchange earnings and employment are minimal.
The industry contribution to Agricultural GDP was 18.6% in 2020 and the projected contribution for 2021 was 17.5%.

The sub-sector experienced real growth of 1.2% in 2020 and was projected to grow by 1.19% in 2021.

The country is self-sufficient in table eggs and there is a fairly high level of self-sufficiency in pork and the meat of small ruminants.
However, overall there is a high level of importation of meat and meat parts as well as dairy products, as value addition has not progressed to significant levels in the sub- sector.

The sub-sector has presented prospects for growth and development of the industry and import substitution created opportunities for of livestock products, as well as for increasing employment, reducing poverty and enhancing food and nutrition security in rural areas.
The fisheries sub-sector and related marine environment are important to socioeconomic development in SVG, through their contribution to sustainable livelihoods in rural areas, foreign exchange earnings and GDP.

The marine and coastal environments lie at the core of the country’s tourism appeal and thus have strong, though underestimated, linkages to the growing and important tourism sector.
Fishing is an extremely important industry in the Grenadines and some rural communities of the mainland of St. Vincent.

The fishing industry is primarily small-scale and artisanal with most fishermen operating from small boats close to the shore.

The fleet consists of 839 registered vessels operating from thirty-six (36) landing sites, of which twenty (20) are located on the mainland and sixteen (16) in the Grenadines).
Most of these landing sites lack modern infrastructure and are just designated points where fishermen pull up their boats to serve the villages.

It is estimated that there are 2,500 persons directly or indirectly employed in the industry, with approximately 85% (2,124 persons) being solely dependent on fishing or related activity for economic survival (Table 2.1).

The industry, in 2020 contributed approximately 0.69% of total GDP and approximately 10.7% of Agricultural GDP.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 60 Table 2.1: Number of Fishers in Volcanic Hazard Zones Zone Description of Fishers/ Operators Number of Fishers and Operators Male Female Total % 72 9 17 98 126 7 133 1 1 892 195 48 2 2 20 24 22 8 30 0 0 19 64 52 Red Zone Fisher-folks Vendors Workers Fisher-folks Total Orange Zone TRI Operators Total Total Fisher-folks18 Fisher-folks Vendors Workers Yellow Zone Green Zone All Zones Grand Total % Total 1135 135 Fisher-folks Vendors Workers TRI Operators Source: MAFFRTIL/Fisheries Division The latest available data has put fish landings at an estimated 32,988 tonnes in 2018, compared to 81,413 tonnes in 2014.
The bulk of the landed catches are sold locally to retailers/vendors,18 directly to consumers and to middlemen or fish traders for export to the United States of America, Martinique and other regional markets.

The value of fish imported into SVG in 2018 was USD 2.35 million compared to the export value of USD 2.49 million.

The main fish and fish products imported included dried salted fish (cod), Salmon (smoked and fillet), and shrimp.
The main import 18 Figures to be updated PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 61 • Conservation of water which benefits the population with water for drinking, irrigation and hydro-electricity.

• Significant contribution to the tourism sector through eco-tourism and the several areas designated as national parks.

important forests are The conservation of the forests and wildlife resources is a major area of operation.
In this from a context, the conservation and environmental standpoint for bio-diversity, water production and conservation, positive effects to clean air and the climate, and soil fertility and conservation.

There are several Forest Reserves located at Cumberland and Kings Hill.

The major threats to forests and biodiversity are deforestation due to crop production, encroachment, poaching, and overexploitation.
The industry contribution to real agricultural GDP was 0.8% in 2020 and the projected contribution for 2021 is 0.7%.

The sub- sector experienced negative real growth of -1.0% in 2020, and zero growth is projected in 2021. including those 2.2 Resource Base Table 2.2 below presents information from the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Agricultural Census for 2000 on the number of holding and area of holdings.
The table shows that there are 876 “landless” farmers and a heavy concentration of land in just a few holdings, with 87.7% of all holdings occupying only 39.0% of the total land area.

The land distribution system in the country suggests the urgent need for land reform to ensure that small farmers in the country have better access to land for agricultural production.
markets are the United States and Canada while the main export markets are Martinique and the United States primarily for fresh and frozen kingfish, dolphin and tuna.It is important to mention that the “tri-tr” or West Indian whitebait (Sicydium plumieri), although of small size, is one of the important fishes of SVG.

It is the young of a freshwater fish commonly known as the Macock and inhabits mountain streams and live in the quiet pools and eddies.
These Macocks, after mating, lay their eggs in huge bundles in the river and the eggs are then washed down into the sea by water currents.

Hatching of the eggs takes place in the sea but the tiny fish or fries would then make their way to the river mouths and eventually move upstream in the freshwater.

Marketing of Tri-Tri is a very profitable exercise (XCD 10.00 per pound) and there is great demand locally for the commodity.
Currently, there are approximately one hundred and fifty (150) registered Tri Tri fishers, although Table 2.1 above indicates only 15 operators in the orange zone, which represents a gross underestimation of the number of Tri Tri fishers.

SVG is covered by 25-30% forests, which include several forest types such as the Montane Rainforest, Coastal Dry-woodlands, Littoral Forest and the Elfin Woodlands.
Some of these forests are important to timber production, including high-value species such as the Blue Mahoe and Mahogany.

The forests provide several services and benefits to SVG, including: • Providing livelihoods or supplement to income for several persons in the communities (such as charcoal makers, building contractors, craft makers and agro/eco-tourism operators).
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 62 Table 2.2: Number and Area of Holdings Description Size of Holdings (hectares) No.

of Holdings Land Area (hectares) Cumulative (%) No.

% Area % No.
of Holdings Land Area (hectares) Landless < .2 hectare .2 – .4 hectare .4 – 1 hectare 1- 2 hectares 2 - 4 hectares 4 – 10 hectares 10.1 – 20.2 hectares 20.2 – 40.5 hectares > 40.5 hectares 876 2,032 732 1,735 1,102 647 187 41 19 9 11.9 27.5 9.9 23.5 14.9 8.8 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 - 148 169 1,018 1,477 1,569 968 527 535 789 0.0 2.1 2.3 14.1 20.5 21.8 13.5 7.3 7.4 11.0 11.9 39.4 49.3 72.8 87.7 96.5 99.0 99.6 99.9 100.0 Total 7,380 100.0 7,200 100.0 Source: SVG 2000 Agricultural Census 0.0 2.1 4.4 18.5 39.0 60.8 74.3 81.6 89.0 100 Data gleaned from the 2000 Agricultural Census shows that of total land holdings, 75.3% are operated under an owner-like land tenure system, while another 19.2% are operated under rental agreements.
The remaining landholdings (5.5%) are squatted lands or land operated under other forms of land tenure.

Approximately 7,920 hectares of the total land area of the country of 42,630 hectares are used for agricultural purposes.

This represents approximately 18.6% of the total land area of SVG.

The farmers use about 42% of the agricultural land for permanent crops and about 15% for temporary crops.
Available data shows that there are approximately 10,438 registered farmers operating in the country (Table 2.3).

However, this data is being updated.19 19 This update is being conducted by the MAFFRTIL.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 63 Table 2.3: Farmers Disaggregated by Hazard Zones Zone Number of Registered Farmers Red Orange Yellow Green Total No.
1,850 1,023 2,569 4,996 10,438 Source: MAFFRTIL % 17.7 9.8 24.6 47.9 100.0 3 Total Effect of the La Soufriere Volcanic Eruption on the Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries Sector 3.1 Overview The total effect of the La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption on the agricultural sector of SVG was assessed by utilizing the PDNA Guidelines for the Productive Sector.

Within this context, the effect on the sector was categorized under two broad headings of damage and loss.
The effect of the volcanic eruption on the physical assets and infrastructure of the agricultural sector at the time of the disaster was categorized as ‘Damage’.

The ‘Loss’ was determined based on changes in economic flows arising from the disaster linked to the disruption of service delivery and production of and access to goods, disruption of governance and decision-making processes, and emerging risks and vulnerabilities.
including crops, The total effect of the volcanic eruption on the agricultural sector, livestock, fisheries, apiculture and forestry is estimated at approximately XCD 230.145 million, with damage accounting for XCD 103.848 (45.1%) and loss put at XCD 126.297 million (54.9%).

The effect by sector is presented in Figure 3.1 below.

The Figure shows the crops and forestry sub-sectors accounted for the highest levels of total effects within the agricultural sector, reporting 50.4% and 45.4%, respectively.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 64 Figure 3.1: Total Effect (Damage and Loss) of the Volcanic Eruption on Agriculture Table 3.1 provides a summary of the total effects and damage and loss of the volcanic eruption on the various sub-sectors, with the effects on into infrastructure the agricultural the sub-sectoral estimations.

Notwithstanding, the main agricultural infrastructure impacted are identified and the damage estimated.
Annex 3 presents details of the damage and loss incurred by the various sub-sectors as a result of the event.

Damages to farm roads are not included in the integrated estimates as this is addressed under the Transport and Works sector.

Geographically, the impact of the Volcanic Eruption on the agricultural sector, although widespread throughout the country, was concentrated in the Northern part of the country, inflicting substantial damage to the sector.
The damage was most severe in Agricultural District 8 of Agricultural Region 3 and District 1 of Agricultural Region 1.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 65 Table 3.1: Summary of Total Effect of La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption on the Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Description Private Public Total (XCD ’000’) (XCD ’000’) (XCD ’000’) Total Damage Crops Sub-sector • Plantains • Banana • Other Fruit Tree Crops • Roots and Tubers • Fruits and Vegetables Livestock Fisheries Apiculture Forestry Total Loss Crops Sub-sector • Plantains • Banana • Other Fruit Tree Crops • Roots and Tubers • Fruits and Vegetables Livestock Fisheries Apiculture Forestry % 45.1 16.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 80.9 54.9 78.1 1.3 4.0 0.3 Total Damage and Loss 122,534.06 107,611.23 230,145.29 100.0 Source: Agriculture Evaluation Team Details on the estimation of damage, loss and total effects of the volcanic eruption on the agriculture sector are presented in Annex 3.
20,566.65 20,566.65 16.3 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 66 3.2 Crops Sub-sector 3.2.3 Root Crops the The overall effects of the volcanic eruption on the Crops Sub-sector were significant, representing 50.4% of in Agriculture, total effects representing 16.7% of the overall damage in Agriculture and 78.1% of overall loss.
A total of 4,151 acres of crops were totally destroyed or damaged, comprised of tree crops (3,045 acres, roots and tubers (693 acres) and fruits and vegetables (413 acres).

3.2.1 Bananas and Plantain It is estimated that 1,028 acres (543 bananas and 485 plantains) were damaged in the entire country, of which 764 acres (433 bananas and 332 plantains) were in the red, orange and yellow zones.

Apart from the physical damage to the plants, the fruits are unmarketable.
Total damage to both crops is estimated at XCD 10.08 million, while the loss is assessed at XCD 26.56 million.

3.2.2 Tree Crops Tree crops across the country have been impacted with ash resulting in the breaking of branches and stripping of some trees; in some cases the snapping of trees is evident.

The entire fruit tree crop industry has been impacted ranging from 7% damage in the green zone to up to 100% damage in the red zone.
Cocoa, coconuts, avocado, breadfruit and mangoes have all been severely affected.

The total acreage of damaged tree crops.

It is estimated that approximately 2,017.9 acres of tree crops were damaged, with total effects estimated at XCD 44.92 million (damage at XCD 3.96 million and the loss at XCD 40.96 million).

Of the tree crops, the coconut industry suffered severe damage and loss, where 1,350 acres were impacted at a total damage and loss value of XCD 23.04 million.
Over 693 acres of root crops were estimated as damaged (sweet potatoes, eddoes, yams, cassava, arrowroot, turmeric and ginger).

The damage was valued at XCD 2.00 million and the loss of XCD 17.75 million.

There was 80% damage to these crops in the red and orange zones and whatever survived the impact of the ash also suffered indirect damage from the livestock that are let loose and currently ravaging any remaining plants in the area.
The Arrowroot crop is grown predominantly in the north windward area located in the red zone.

Total production for 2020 was estimated at 440 metric tonnes.

An estimated 98 acres that were unharvested was totally damaged due to ash fall ranging from 4 to 6 inches in some cases.

Apart from the damage to the arrowroot crop the roof at the factory in Owia also collapsed resulting in the loss of starch estimated at XCD 511,875.00.
The total arrowroot damage and loss (including the crop in the field plus tubers and starch in storage) is estimated at XCD 2.00 million.

3.2.4 Fruits and Vegetables There was a 100% damage to fruits and vegetables in the red and orange zones as this was primarily the peak season for tomatoes, sweet peppers and cabbages in the north windward and north leeward areas (red and orange zones).

These areas produce up to 73% of the over 568 acres of vegetables produced in the country.
The crops are produced primarily for the domestic market and the loss have resulted in some levels of food shortage and increased prices of some commodities.

The total damage and loss for fruits and vegetables is estimated at XCD 14.73 million (damage being XCD 1.31 million while losses accounted for XCD 13.42 million).
While there is total damage to all vegetables in the red PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 67 and orange zones, there have been reports by farmers and Extension Officers of total damage to leafy vegetables across the country.

Considerable damage was done to a portion of greenhouses across the country, especially in the red and orange zones.

3.3 Livestock Sub-sector There was extensive loss of vegetation (pasture and other forage on which to graze animals) in the red and orange zones.
All classes of livestock from the two zones are currently let loose based on prior advice from the MAFFRTIL given the nature of the emergency.

The damage to the livestock sub-sector is estimated at XCD 1.51 million in all zones and the loss is assessed at XCD 1.65 million.

There are significant costs associated with the protection, feeding and veterinary support of these animals and their relocation to the safe zones.
The estimated number of livestock affected in country is 3,110, comprised of poultry (2,872), sheep (54), goats (98, pigs (69) and cattle (17).

The number of livestock by category affected in the the red and orange zones is estimated at 1,233, animals, the composition of which were not available at the time of the report.

3.4 Fisheries 3.4.1 Overview in the red, orange and The fishery sector yellow zones has been significantly impacted.
Approximately 800 fishers island-wide have been affected, with 278 relocated.

Due to prior advice provided by MAFFRIL to fishers to safeguard their vessels, many fishers took the advice and protected their vessels from the effects of the volcanic eruption.

In this context, this mitigating effort ensure that most of the protected vessels were able to escape the damaging effects of the volcanic eruption.

It has been reported that eleven (11) vessels with their engines and other equipment have been damaged.
The estimated damage and loss for fisheries is XCD 5.73 million, with XCD 0.72 million representing damage and XCD 5.013 million loss.

International export of fisheries products was temporarily interrupted due to the closure of the airport and the fisheries centre in the red zone.
3.4.2 Environmental Impact The Volcanic hazards catastrophically destroyed fishing villages and turtle nesting beaches at Sandy Bay and Owia on the Windward side of the island and Rose bank, Chateaubelair, Fitz Hughes and Richmond on the Leeward side.

These are prominent fishing villages located within proximity to the La Soufriere volcano.

Wallibou beach, a known turtle nesting area, was destroyed and is now inundated by the sea.
Several rivers on the Windward side of the island which are known for the harvesting of “Tri-Tri” were also destroyed and can no longer function in that capacity.

The Fisheries Division does not have a comprehensive outlook of the extent of damages and coastal erosions from the pyroclastic density currents and Lahar flows because of a lack of specialized resources to carry out detailed damage assessments.
However, the Division is cognizant that these pyroclastic density currents and Lahar flows pose a significant threat to lives and livelihoods in and around the coast and inevitably ends up in the sea during severe weather.

This may lead to cataclysmic devastation to nearshore nurseries and habitats and in extreme cases fish kill.
The Government and people of SVG were advised by the University of the West Indies (UWI) Seismic Unit that Lahar flows are the second most destructive volcanic hazard and they may occur for months up to years with devastating life- threatening impacts.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Moreover, the Fisheries Division received reports of instances of discolouration of the ocean during La Soufriere’s eruptive fervour.
Fishers reported sightings of large swaths of seawater having dark green appearance nearshore.

Fishing grounds are also covered with logs and other debris, floating and on the substrate, due to the Lahar flows.

3.5 Apiculture The thriving apiculture industry with 713 hives across the country was not severely impacted since less than 10 percent (10%) of the hives are located in the red and orange zones.

The total damage was estimated at XCD 0.217 million and loss XCD 0.377 million.
3.6 Forestry 3.6.1 Overview The established plantations and the natural forest suffered an excess of 65% damage in the Red, Orange and Yellow zones.

The estimated damage to the forestry industry is XCD 84.053 million and loss is XCD 20.567 million.

The ecosystem services value has been calculated based on an estimate of 65% damage to the 13,000 hectares of natural forest in SVG.
The calculated value of USD 1,000 per acre was determined by the use of the ‘Economics of Ecosystem biodiversity Manual’ for evaluating the economic value of ecosystems.

PAGE 68 • Orange zone - Heavy ash deposits • • Green - Moderate to light ash-fall Yellow Zone - Heavy to moderate ash-fall in Pyroclastic flows the complete resulted destruction of the landscape destroying both flora and fauna around the crater’s rim and on the western slopes of the volcano.
The vegetation on the top 1/3 of the mountain was also destroyed from the edge of the crater.

Mudflows destroyed vegetation in some valleys in the east to southern slopes extending to the coast.

These pyroclastic currents and mudflows changed waterways and built-up coastal delta-like formations.

In the orange and yellow hazard zones, heavy ash-fall caused breakage of branches and some falling of trees.
Damage also included the middle and ground stories of the forest while plantation forests also had damage to trees similar to the natural forest.
Effect on ecosystem function: • • • on evapotranspiration Impacts and photosynthesis in severely damaged trees may die however other trees produce new foliage Sever impact on the habitat of the faunal species Some animals may have been killed during the eruptions 3.6 2 Impact This section provides a preliminary synopsis of the impact and needs in relation to the forest, biological diversity and functions.
Assessment of Ash-fall by Volcano Hazard Zone • Red Zone - Pyroclastic Density Clouds and very heavy ash fall flows • Heavy ash cover on the forest floor disrupts the functions of the forest floor in the nutrient and water cycles Impact on Ecosystem Services (Biodiversity, Soil and Water Conservation) Approximately 70% of the terrain in St. Vincent is made up of slopes over a 30% gradient which makes exposed young soils vulnerable to soil PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 69 3.7 Agricultural Infrastructure Substantial damage was done to agricultural infrastructure in the Red and Orange zones since most of the agricultural investments are in this area (Agricultural Biotechnology Center, arrowroot and cassava factories, fisheries complex, CARDI Field Station, Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Centre, Langley Park Palletisation Centre, and Perseverance Agricultural Station).
The damage to the public agricultural infrastructure is identified and presented in Annex 3.

Information on the extent of damage and loss to private sector infrastructure (shade houses, farm sheds, animals housing and equipment) have been integrated into the sub-sectoral damage assessments.

Concerning roadways in agricultural areas in the red and orange zones, reports indicate that a number of bridges and feeder roads have been affected.
The damage to the bridges and roads is an indirect result of erosion due to heavy rains, lahars and pyroclastic flows.

It is anticipated that the assessment of the total effects of the volcanic eruption on agricultural roads will be conducted by the Ministry of Transport and Works.20 3.8 Socio-economic Impact of Damage and Loss in the Sector large proportion of stakeholders A in the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors are self-employed.
According to the Housing and Population Census Report (2012), approximately 11.8% of Vincentians are employed in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector.

The majority of persons activity involved in the sectors reside in rural areas which were impacted by the heavy deposits of ashfall during the volcanic eruptions.

This resulted in significant losses of various commodities which were erosion in heavy rainfall.
The forest ecosystem that covers the interior mountainous areas covers and protects the soil from the erosive power of rain and allows for percolation of the water and storage and gradual release thus maintaining sustainable sources of surface water for human use and maintenance of aquatic ecosystems in the many streams and rivers that originate in the 16 watersheds found in St. Vincent.
With the loss of this protective cover, due to the impact of the volcano with ash covering the forest floor, there are concerns of erosion and downstream impacts from debris-laden floodwaters.

The loss of biological diversity due to the explosive eruptions is also a concern with a number of endemic species being destroyed.

With natural regeneration, these ecosystems and habitats will return once impacts.
The protected from negative human endemics will from neighbouring ecosystems, however, this relies on minimizing the negative impact such as the introduction of invasive species.

An effective forest management programme will assist with protection, monitoring and enhancement being the main outputs to protect the regeneration and succession process.
recolonize include forestry The the recovery needs implementation of the Forest and Wildlife Recovery Programme, which will be achieved through reforestation, soil conservation, clearing of water ways and stabilisation of river and stream banks.

Affected plantation forests in the lower slopes will be replanted, especially in areas such as Orange Hill.
The forestry recovery needs also include the protection and conservation of gullies in areas where housing once existed, the planting of agro-forest trees in these areas for the generation of livelihoods for displaced residents, and the provision of support for the cleaning of rivers and streams, especially in the upper watersheds in red and orange zone.

20 That information is not currently available PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 70 unmarketable and non-consumable.
The primary income of these stakeholders in the sector have been disrupted and the resultant indirect spill off extends to other sectors that rely on primary commodities through various value chains.

The economic activities within the sectors can be described as leaden footed by the effects of the volcanic eruptions of La Soufrière.

Farmers and fishers in the red and orange zones have borne significant damage and loss.
The gender and age groupings of those affected by their displacement, disruption of source of income and livelihood varies due to geographic location and socio-economic circumstances.

Moreover, is the heightened risk of food vulnerability and reduced quality of nutritional intake among those affected and practice subsistence farming and artisanal fishing.

4.
4.

Recovery Needs and Strategy The recovery needs of the agricultural sector are based on six (6) main factors: • • • • • • The need to restore service delivery and production capacity and to ensure access to services and goods The priority needs to build back better (BBB) service delivery and production capacity and to ensure access to services and goods.

The restoration and strengthening of governance capacity, including DRM.

The priority needs for BBB governance and DRM.


The need to address pre-existing risks and new risks related to the volcano.

The need for BBB to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future events.

In the context of the above, the total recovery needs for sector are estimated at XCD258.85 million, with XCD103.85 million (40.1%) to cover damage, XCD126.

30 million (48.8%) to cover loss and XCD28.71 million (11.1%) for building back better (BBB).
These needs have been disaggregated and presented in Table 4.1.

The Recovery Strategy will be formulated following the Results-based model to include priority needs, interventions required in the short, medium and long-term, expected outputs recovery costs and intended outcomes.

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Summary The La Soufrière Volcano began erupting effusively in December 2020 and moved to an explosive eruptive phase on Friday April 9th.

This series of explosive events included deposition of ash across the island of St. Vincent and pyroclastic flows along the slopes of the volcano.

A rapid assessment was done under the aegis of the Damage and Needs Assessment Subcommittee of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO).
It was conducted by a team from National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority between April 17th and July 22nd, 2021.

The assessment covered seventeen (17) tourism and recreation sites managed by NPRBA across mainland St. Vincent.

Eleven (11) of the seventeen (17) sites were actually visited, while the other six (6) were deemed inaccessible or high-risk due to high ash fall on access road to such sites and to the ongoing volcanic activity.
These latter sites are Dark View Falls, La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head and Trail, Owia Salt Pond Recreational Park, Falls of Baleine, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail.

This report provides information on the effects of the La Soufrière eruption on sites up to July 22nd, 2021, and projected revenue loss over an initial three-month period due to the closure of sites.
Information also includes cost estimates for the recovery, restoration, and post-disaster rebuilding at sites over the immediate, short, medium and long term inclusive of specific resilience-building interventions.

The La Soufrière Volcano eruption caused an estimated effect of XCD 965,127.00 (table 1).

The damages represent around 55% of the effects while the losses and additional costs amounted to 45%.
Furthermore, the financial needs for recovery - which include different time frames, are estimated at XCD 1.498 million (table 2).

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Table 1: Summary of Damage and Losses PRIVATE PAGE 83 PUBLIC (XCD) 530,500.00 434,627.47 965,127.47 Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.
Table 2: Summary of Recovery Needs COSTS (XCD) 336,750.00 306,800.00 854,700.00 1,498,250.00 Damage Losses TOTAL Short-run Intermediate Long-run TOTAL Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.

2.

Sector Background Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) is an archipelago with 32 islands, and islets, located in the Southern end of the Lesser Antilles.

The country is strategically located in the Eastern Caribbean.
As a result, it offers warm Caribbean weather year-round which allows foreign tourists and locals to visit and enjoy its beautiful natural sites year-round.

To illustrate, besides the white sand beaches typical of the Caribbean, the country has approximately 12,700 hectares of tropical forests.
These forests not only provide a natural habitat for wildlife, but they also offer different options for tourism experiences like waterfalls, volcano, petroglyphs, black sand beaches, and other attractions.24 Although the main productive activity in the country is agriculture, the government has made a huge effort to promote what is unique “Vincy” natural attractions to increase tourists25 while preserving, protecting, and managing natural and ecological resources.
The National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority has the mandate to oversee and address sustainable tourism and to 24 25 National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority (nd).

SVG National Parks and Protected Areas System Plan 2010-2014 http://nationalparks.gov.vc/nationalparks/images/documents/Final%20System%20Plan.pdf In fact, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the number of international tourists’ arrivals had an upward trend, increasing from 207,000 in 2015 to 392,000 in 2019.
Source World Bank Indicators: https://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?locations=VC PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 84 ensure that the attendant environmental issues are integrated into a holistic management regime.

SVG also promotes its culture as a part of its unique attractions.
Among the cultural activities that have become an annual tradition for locals and capture the foreign interest, mention can be made of: Blues Fest (March); Vincy Mas carnival (at the end of June - beginning of July); the Bequia Regatta and the Easterval Regatta (Easter weekend); and the Maroon festival on Union Island (a day-long festival takes place on a full moon in May).
Since the La Soufrière Volcano’s explosive eruption on April 9th, 2021, the island of St. Vincent has been covered by the deposition of ash and pyroclastic flows, affecting seventeen (17) tourism and recreation sites.
Consequently, this section focuses on the descriptions of visitor’s patterns of the following sites before the eruption namely: Black Point Recreational Park; Cumberland Beach Facility; Joseph Chatoyer National Park; Rawacou Recreational Park and Wallilabou Recreational Park; Belmont Look-Out; Botanical Garden; Layou Petrogylph; Mt.Wynne Beach; Vermont Nature Trail; Indian Bay Beach Facility; Dark View Falls; La Soufriere Bamboo Range and Owia Salt Pond; Falls of Baleine, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail.
During 2019, the data collected shows that twelve sites received 191,208 visitors, of which 55% of them were foreign visitors.

The Indian Bay Beach Facility and the Botanical Garden are the most popular sites concentrating about 40% of the visits during the year.

However, there is a difference if we break down the number of visits by locals and foreigners.
For instance, the most visited places for foreigners (besides the Botanical Garden) were the Wallilabou Heritage Park (18,547 visitors), the Dark View Falls (17,956 visitors), and the Belmont Lookout (11,901 visitors).

By contrast, the site that concentrated most local visitors (besides Indian Bay Beach) was Mt.

Wynne beach (17,958 persons).


Another relevant fact is that the number of foreigners that visit the affected places is equivalent to 27% of the international tourists’ arrivals reported in 2019.26 Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during 2020, the number of visitors to these twelve sites decreased to 100,154.

Even though we can say that the number of total visitors was evenly divided among locals and foreigners, the number of foreign visitors decreased by 56% compared to the previous year.
The first trimester of the year, which usually corresponds to high season, saw 95% of the foreign visitors in 2020.

In fact, January 2020 was the only month that surpassed foreign visitors compared with 2019, while March showed a sharp decline (from 15,614 to 6,852).

Conversely, the sharpest decline in local visitors was in July and August (from over 11,000 to 6,000).
As we can see in chart 1, the COVID-19 pandemic represented a profound setback to the number of visitors exploring and enjoying the touristic sites.

26 We acknowledge that it is not a straight comparison because one tourist can visit multiple places during one or more visits.

Still, it offers an idea about the number of visitors that eventually look for those kinds of attractions.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Chart 1: SVG NPRBA’ Sites visitors 2014-2020 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 PAGE 85 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Local Foreign Total Source: National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority22 3.

Assessment of Disaster Effects An assessment was done under the aegis of the Damage and Needs Assessment Subcommittee the National Emergency Management of Organization (NEMO).
It was conducted by a team from National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority between April 17th and July 22nd,2021.

27 The assessment covered seventeen (17) tourism and recreation sites managed by NPRBA across mainland St. Vincent.

Fourteen (14) of the seventeen (17) sites were actually visited, while the other three (3) were deemed inaccessible or high- risk due to high ash fall on access road to such sites and to the ongoing volcanic activity.
These latter sites are Falls of Baleine, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail.

Besides the prevailing volcanic hazards, these same three sites have been closed to visitors for approximately 5 years.

This site closure is due to environmental hazards such as landslides and rock falls.
Significant ash fall was recorded at eight (8) sites namely: La Soufrière Bamboo Range Trail Head Facility, Owia Salt Pond and Dark View Falls, Black Point Recreational Park, Cumberland Beach Facility, Joseph Chatoyer National Park, Rawacou Recreational Park and Wallilabou Recreational Park.

Lower levels of ash fall were observed at Belmont Look-Out, Botanical Garden, Layou Petrogylph, Mt.Wynne Beach, Vermont Nature Trail.
Ash fall was comparatively less at Brighton Salt Pond and Indian Bay Beach Facility.

Three (3) sites namely Falls of Baliene, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail were deemed inaccessible at the time of the assessment.
As indicated above, these sites have been closed to visitors for an extended period of 27 See http://nationalparks.gov.vc/nationalparks/index.php/visitor-sites/sites-visitor-data PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 86 time for reasons not related to the recent volcanic eruptions.

Hence, they were not included in the Damage and Needs Assessment Report.

The deposition of ashes is the less damaging element after a volcanic eruption.
However, the ashes can cause damage to the roofs of building and other depending on the magnitude, frequency, and duration of the eruptions as well as weather conditions such as rain and wind direction.
These factors together with the volume of ash generated and the elements contained therein can cause different levels of damage to the structures.28 Due to the La Soufrière Volcano eruption, the NPRBA will need to repaint some facilities and restore damaged signs and interpretive material from the affected sites.

These costs have been classified as minor damage to assets in table 3.

Table 3: Summary of Damage30 31 DAMAGE PRIVATE PUBLIC (XCD) 1.

Damage to assets 3.
Damage to assets 3.

Restorative work on trails (Vermont and La Soufrière Cross Country) 4.

Replanting of trees and turf 5.
Rehabilitation and construction at severely affected sites: La Soufriere Trail and Bamboo Range Trail head facilities,29 Dark View Falls Recreation Park and Owia Salt Pond Recreation Park: · · Repair to roofs and other damaged fixtures Repair to plumbing and replacement of water storage tanks Replacement of Viewing platform, bamboo bridge and abutments at Dark View Falls 126,800.00 75,000.00 25,000.00 303,700.00 TOTAL DAMAGE 530,500.00 Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.
The assessment team estimated the losses as the difference between income earned from each affected site during April and May 2021 with the income earned during 2020, plus the remuneration to their staff from April to June 2021.

The same logic was applied for sites that will be closed for more than three months.

However, the losses assumes that the number of visitors will be the same as in 2020.
It may not be precisely the case if SVG authority gradually establishes more flexible rules for visitors’ entrance.

28293031 28 See Torres-Corredor, R.A., Ponce-Villarreal, P., y Gómez-Martínez, D.M.

2017.

Vulnerabilidad física de cubiertas de edificaciones de uso de ocupación normal ante caídas de ceniza en la zona de influencia del volcán Galeras.

Boletín de Geología, 39(2): 67-82.

29 See in the Annex Image 1.


30 Source: sector evaluation team 31 Trinity Falls was not assessed given the limited access to the zone.

No estimates for damage were made and no provision for recovery needs were made at the report generation.

Any further consideration should be given when defining a prioritized action plan for recovery.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 87 Table 4: Summary of Losses and Additional Costs32 PRIVATE PUBLIC (XCD) LOSSES 1.

Sites closed up to 3 months 2.


Sites closed more than 3 months ADDITIONAL COSTS 1.

Cleaning, removal of ash and washing of buildings 2.

Pruning of damaged trees, bucking-up and discarding of biomass 3.

Replacing of aggregates and compacting of walkways 4.

Procurement of supplies and equipment 5.

Increase coastal monitoring and assessment of beaches, rivers/ waterfalls use for recreational purposes 6.
Clearing of access road to Dark View Falls and La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head TOTAL LOSSES AND ADDITIONAL COSTS Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.

295,877.47 211,560.00 84,317.47 138,750.00 30,800.00 26,600.00 7,500.00 58,350.00 5,500.00 10,000.00 434,627.47 4.

Human Impact informally.


Significant among the human impacts, which will be felt as a result of the temporary closure of sites is that of loss or reduced income among the workers engaged both formally and The informal sector represents approximately 38.1% of the entire economy of St Vincent and many young persons and women who may have been engaged in livelihoods such as food preparation and sale or tour guides may have been engaged in the informal economy.
Loss of income even for short periods could push vulnerable persons, of which nearly half of the population of SVG (48.2%) who were so classified, into poverty.

32 The volcanic eruption curtailed temporary projects or activities geared towards the preservation of local cultural and business prospects that could boost the local economy.

As a result, it exacerbated the financial and emotional hardships that people were facing since the pandemic.
In addition, sites are the places for social gatherings and places to enjoy picnics or cultural events.

The effect of recreation on the people’s psyche is relevant more than ever after a year of lockdowns and social distancing.

Indeed, experimental evidence suggests that “physical activity in a natural environment might produce greater mental health benefits than physical activity elsewhere.” The loss of such sites would be deeply felt.
32 Costs included based on that available at time of generation of the report.

Further consideration can be given when defining a prioritized recovery plan for the sector PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 88 5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy Climate Change adaptation was highlighted as one of the strategic priorities enshrined within the National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority Advanced Budget Proposal 2021-2023.
One of the objectives in this regard, is the procurement and installation of water storage tanks at the various Tourism and Recreation Sites.

Several of the NPRBA sites are relatively expansive and located in drought-prone areas.

Some of these same sites such as the Black Point Heritage and Recreation Park, Cumberland Beach Recreation Park, Owia Salt Pond Recreation Park and Rawacou Beach Recreation Park were all impacted by heavy ash fall from the explosive eruption at La Soufrière Volcano.
include disruption Impacts to potable water supply to the sites as well as ruptured guttering from roofs of buildings that compromised the ability of the NPRBA to respond effectively to rehabilitation needs and restoration of services at such sites.
This proposal is aimed at building resilience against disruption to the potable water supply at the sites; disruption that may be linked not only to climate change, but also other natural disasters such as hurricanes, storms, droughts and future volcanic eruptions.

rainwater harvesting and Two (2) sub-component costs must be highlighted in association with the cost for the installation of water tanks at the various recreational and tourism sites.
These are costs for (1), the construction of reinforced concrete bases and elevated platforms on which to mount the installed water tanks and (2), the procurement of materials and supplies for and the actual construction of screens for the installed water tanks.

The volume of the water tanks to be installed range from 600 to 2000 gallons.
Said tanks need to be mounted in locations or at elevations that would provide the best gravitational feed to the intended on-site facility, be it a washroom, gazebo or an office, etc.
Given their importance to the proper functioning of sites during periods of potable water shortage, their sheer weight when filled and their initial price tag, it is imperative that the water tanks be anchored securely to their bases so as to prevent damage or minimize the chance of toppling especially during periods of storms and hurricanes.

Whether mounted, these water tanks, especially those with the larger volumes, can and occasionally do compromise the visual quality of an area.
This has implications for our recreation and tourism sites.

The proposal caters to the construction and placement of PVC lattice screens around the installed water tanks.

This particular material is considered more durable than and preferable to wood, especially at sites prone to the effects of high precipitation.

The lattice would be painted green and embellished with floral climbers to soften the environmental footprint of the newly installed infrastructure.
In locations where aesthetics is not a major concern, vegetative or ‘green’ screens would be used instead of the PVC lattice.

Tables from 5 to 7 list and rank the recovery needs in different time frames.

In this case, the priority is represented on a scale from 1 to 5, where 5 is the top priority.

The items listed with priority 5 represent immediate needs, in other words, activities that would allow for continued or resumption of operations.
Moreover, the assessment team also prioritized interventions that allow the facilities to be more resilient if they impacted by other natural disasters.

To illustrate, to install water tanks and installing shutters would enable them to be more prepared and withstand natural disasters and with a guaranteed water supply needed to operate.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 89 Table 5: Recovery Needs - Short Run INTERVENTION/ACTIVITY PRIORITY COSTS (XCD) 1.
Cleaning, removal of ash and washing 2.

Pruning of damaged trees, bucking-up and discarding of biomass 3.

Replacing of aggregates and compacting of parking lots and other areas prone to water logging and erosion from pedestrian traffic.

4.

Repairs and repainting 5.

Rental of heavy equipment for the grading and removal of ash and aggre- gates at La Soufrière Bamboo Range Trail Head Facility and at Owia Salt Pond 6.

Procurement of supplies and equipment 7.

PPE 8.


Coastal monitoring and assessment of beaches, rivers/ waterfalls 9.

Clearing of access road to Dark View Falls and La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head 10.

Demolish and rebuild damaged Gazebo at Owia Salt Pond and La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head Facility TOTAL 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.
Table 6: Recovery Needs – Intermediary 30,800.00 26,600.00 7,500.00 90,000.00 28,000.00 38,400.00 19,950.00 5,500.00 10,000.00 80,000.00 336,750.00 INTERVENTION/ACTIVITY PRIORITY COSTS (XCD) 1.

Repainting 2.

Damaged signs and interpretive materials 3.

Restorative work on trails 4.

Replanting of trees and turf 5.

Research on impact of ash on marine, coastal and terrestrial biodiversity 6.
Redefining communication, education, public awareness and marketing of Tourism and Recreation Sites with emphasis on La Soufriere and Geo-Tourism TOTAL Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.

4 5 5 4 3 3 31,800.00 45,000.00 75,000.00 25,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 306,800.00 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 90 Table 7: Recovery Needs – Long Run INTERVENTION/ACTIVITY PRIORITY COSTS (XCD) 1.
Rehabilitation of severely affected sites: La Soufrière Trail and Bamboo Range Trail head facilities, Dark View Falls Recreation Park and Owia Salt Pond Recreation Park 2.

Shutters 3.

Development of sustainable tourism products 4.

Procurement and installation of water tanks 5.

New Bridge at Dark View Falls 6.

Dry wall at La Soufrière Bamboo Range Trail Head Facility Parking Lot 7.

Upgrade to storage facility at La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head Fa- cility 8.
Construction of two (2) Gazebos at Owia Salt Pond 9.

Construction of Twelve (12) picnic benches at Owia Salt Pond and six (6) 5 4 2 4 3 3 2 3 3 at Dark View Falls TOTAL 6.

References Source: Evaluation team based on sector information.

303,700.00 75,600.00 20,000.00 235,000.00 100,000.00 3,000.00 5,000.00 80,000.00 32,400.00 854,700.00 • Mitchell, R. (2013).

Is physical activity in natural environments better for mental health than physical activity in other environments?.
Social science & medicine, 91, 130-134.

• National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority (nd).

SVG National Parks and Protected Areas System Plan 2010-2014 Retrieved from: http://nationalparks.gov.vc/nationalparks/images/documents/Final%20 System%20Plan.pdf • Torres-Corredor, R.A., Ponce-Villarreal, P., y Gómez-Martínez, D.M.

2017.

Vulnerabilidad física de cubiertas de edificaciones de uso de ocupación normal ante caídas de ceniza en la zona de influencia del volcán Galeras.
Boletín de Geología, 39(2): 67-82.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 91 7.
Annex Image 1: Gazebo and Vegetation: Bamboo Range (before and after the eruption) Source: National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority - Team Composition · Mrs. Rodica Tannis - Superintendant of Rivers, Beaches and Recreation Sites · Mr. Andrew Lockhart - Superintendant of Marine and Terrestrial Parks · Ms. Shanell Murray - Administrative Assistant/ Projects · Dr. Omar D. Bello - Facilitator · Ms. María Eugenia Rodríguez - Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 92 Tourism Sector – Accommodation 1.
Summary The La Soufrière Volcano eruption caused an estimated effect of XCD 11.81 million (table 1) on the tourism sector specific to accommodation.

The effects are concentrated in foregone revenues estimated as XCD 9.2 million and additional costs estimated as XCD 2.61 million.

Losses Foregone revenues Additional costs TOTAL Table 1: Summary of Effects (millions of XCD) PRIVATE PUBLIC 9.2 9.2 2.61 2.61 Source: Assessment team 2.
Background information in St. Vincent and the The Tourism sector Grenadines (SVG) was very dynamic between 2015 and 2019.

According to figures from the (ECCB), the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank average annual growth rate was 18.2%.

During this period, the group where the greatest dynamic was shown was that of cruise ship passengers, which had been experiencing an increasing flow of international visitors in line with the expansion of the number of cruise passengers received.
Official figures show that since the beginning of the decade of the 2010s, the number of cruise ship vessels received by SVG more than doubled from 124 in 2011 to 260 in 2019 (see Figure 1).

In the same period, the number of passengers that arrived to SVG via cruise ship increased by 187%, to reach more than 255,000 in 2019.

Another tourism sub-sector that has been expanding in recent years is the yacht chartering industry, that has been attracting increasing number of international passengers.
Between 2011 and 2019 the number of yacht passengers increased by 50%.

More of 60% of the total nation’s annual visitors come from the United States, the United Kingdom in the and Canada, while other countries PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 93 Caribbean account for another 20% of visitors.

In 2019, this country received more than 404,100 (in thousands) overseas visitors.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism in the SVG archipelago was at all-time highs.
According to the ECCB estimates, during 2019, of the all SVG reported international visitors (404,100 in thousands), approximately 63% were cruise passengers, while 21% were stay-over visitors that use touristic services like hotels, resorts, restaurants and the like, and the balance of 16% were visitors on private yachts.

(See Figure 2 ).
(See Figure 2 ).

The total expenditure from this tourist was estimated at USD 117.8 million In terms of nationality of passengers, the number of tourists from the United States has consolidated in recent years as the main source of passengers for the SVG touristic sector, somehow displacing passengers from the United Kingdom.

In 2019, SVG received approximately 30,000 stay-over visitors from the United States, compared to 13,000 visitors received from the United Kingdom.
Canadian visitors increased 56% between 2011 and 2019, reaching more than 10,000 stay-over passengers and becoming the fastest growing nationality among the source countries of SVG tourism sector.

Figure 1.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Total cruise ship calls per year 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 280 124 92 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ECCB PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 94 Figure 2.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Total visitors by type and year (in thousands) 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cruise Ship Passengers Stay-over Visitors Yacht Passengers Excursionists Source: ECCB As is already well known, since the pandemic designation for the COVID-19 disease in March 11th 2020, containment measures were imposed by governments all around the world, including draconian mobility and confinement restrictions for citizens.
Those measures had an immediate toll on flows of international travelers, severely affecting the tourism sector all over the world.

SVG was not an exception, and during 2020 international visitors declined 63% with respect of 2019, and total income from international visitors dropped by 86% (see Figure 3).

Figure 3.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Total expenditure from international visitors (millions of XCD$) 232,7 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 318,3 118,2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ECCB PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 95 It is important to note that the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector was attenuated by a better than expected first quarter of 2020, when SVG showed strong numbers of arrivals and expenditures by international passengers despite the initial impacts of the global health crises.
According to ECLAC, comparatively speaking, SVG was expected to be one of the Caribbean countries least affected in terms of losses, in part due to the relatively resilient yachting chartering sector.

3.

Damage According to information provided by the Ministry of Tourism, Sports and Culture of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, there are 167 registered and licensed33 accommodation establishments of which 32% are in the island of Saint Vincent (Table 2)34.
Those establishments include hotels, inn, and resorts.

apartments, guest houses, Additionally, there are 37 rental properties that have 125 rooms.

Most accommodation establishments in Saint Vincent are located in the south of the island.

Table 2.
Table 2.

Registered and Licensed Accommodation Establishments (2020) Location Accommodation Establishments Rooms St Vincent Bequia Mustique Union Island Petit St Vincent Palm Island Mayreau Canouan 53 94 2 11 1 1 1 4 167 696 255 24 90 22 43 9 60 1199 Source: Ministry of Tourism, Sports and Culture 3334 33 34 Additionally, there are 32 accommodation establishments that are registered but not licensed.

They have 241 rooms.

These establishments have 1,199 rooms of which 57% were on the island of St Vincent.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 96 marginal effects of the April 2021 La Soufriére volcano eruption.

In the baseline scenario (blue line), the counterfactual international arrivals were modeled as a function of seasonal patterns in the monthly official historical data since 201035.

The scenario of losses then takes into consideration actual arrivals of international visitors and average expenditures per tourist as per the ECCB official figures until March 2021.
In the resulting scenario, a drop in international arrivals after first travel restrictions were imposed in March 2020, is followed by a slow recovery during 2020 and 2021.

The volcano eruption reinforces that trend and postpones the start recovery until January 2022.

Finally, international arrivals are projected to converge to baseline levels at the end of 2022 (see Figure 4).
In terms of the losses in the tourism sector due to forgone income of missing international visitors, Figure 4 shows the total annual expenditures estimated for both, the baseline scenario and the estimated trajectory of arrivals.

Total losses for the direct effects of the simultaneous disasters are estimated to be XCD 54.8 million for 2020 (March- December), XCD 182.0 million for 2021 and XCD 30.5 million for 2022, for a total of XCD 266.2 million for the complete period 2020-2022 (see figure 5).
The relatively small impact found in this report is a consequence of two factors: first, the volcano eruption occurred in April 2021, which is the beginning of the low season of tourism for SVG, which low counterfactual income to begin with.

Secondly, the simultaneous disasters approach means that the effects of the volcano are modeled in addition to the baseline relatively implies 4.
Losses This report will center its analysis on the effects of the eruption of La Soufrière volcano over the tourism sector of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines but work under the assumption of simultaneous disasters, which is that any estimated impact associated with the eruption of the volcano will be added to the baseline scenario of the ongoing disaster of the COVID 19 pandemic.
The baseline scenario for this report is based on the estimated losses for SVG due the COVID-19 pandemic, which is included in CEPAL, 2020.

The estimation of losses caused by the pandemic of COVID-19 in the tourism sector of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is done comparing the baseline that reflects what would have happened without the volcanic eruption (ECLAC, 2014); and the modeled trajectory of the future flows of tourism with the simultaneous events (COVID-19 and the Volcanic Eruption.
Damage and Loss are estimated as the difference between the two scenarios.

The post-pandemic scenarios were constructed taking into consideration the time for development of an effective vaccine; the time for lifting the generalized closure of borders; the drop-in economic activity in the countries of origin of tourists who come to SVG; the reluctance of tourists to travel under current conditions, and d) the potential drop in income due to greater competition in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Scenarios were estimated for the period between March 2020 and February 2023.

Figure 3 shows the combined fall of international expenditure for tourism due to the simultaneous disasters in SVG.
The estimate adds the losses due to COVID-19 for the period 2021-2022 to the 35 Given the strong seasonality in monthly tourism arrivals in Caribbean countries, baseline (counterfactual) projections of international tourist flows based on historical data for each country, as well as estimates of spending by different types of travelers for the period March 2020 - December 2022 were generated using ARIMA time series analysis models (see Hyndman et al, 2020; Hyndman and Khandakar, 2008).
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 97 scenario under COVID-19 scenario noting projected incomes near zero for the most part of 2021, even before La Soufriére eruption.

As mentioned, this report is assessing the impacts of the La Soufrière volcanic eruption as a simultaneous disaster that builds upon the deep and long-lasting COVID-19 disaster as a baseline.
As we write this report, the direct impacts of the volcanic eruption are mostly concentrated in the red and orange zones with no significative destruction of private or public infrastructure or services.

Effects are assumed to be concentrated only in the second and third quarter of 2021 and will translate mostly in a delay in the recovery pattern of the already depressed international arrivals due to COVID-19.

In table 3, a breakdown of estimated losses due to both disasters is presented.
Total foregone revenue attributed to the eruption of La Soufriére volcano are estimated to be XCD 9.2 million.

Figure 4.

Total international visitors arrivals.

Baseline Vs.
Baseline Vs.

Estimated Arrivals 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 2 - n a J 1 2 - b e F 1 2 - r a M 1 2 - r p A 1 2 - y a M 1 2 - n u J 1 2 - l u J 1 2 - g u A 1 2 - p e S 1 2 - t c O 1 2 - v o N 1 2 - c e D 2 2 - n a J 2 2 - b e F 2 2 - r a M 2 2 - r p A 2 2 - y a M 2 2 - n u J 2 2 - l u J 2 2 - g u A 2 2 - p e S 2 2 - t c O 2 2 - v o N 2 2 - c e D Baseline Actual and Estimated Visitors (afetr March 2021) Source: Assessment team Figure 5.
Estimated expenditure by international visitors.

Baseline Vs.

Estimated Scenarios (millions of XCD) 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 239,7 57,6 217,1 186,6 2021 2022 Baseline Updated Scenario (COVID-19 + Volcano) Source: Assessment team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 98 Table 3.

Breakdown of estimated losses due to simultaneous disasters.

Baseline Vs.
Baseline Vs.

Estimated Scenarios (millions of XCD) Year COVID19 Updated COVID19 + Volcano 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Jan-feb) Total 54,8 172,8 30,5 0,0 258,1 54,8 182,0 30,5 0,0 266,2 Source: Assessment team Approximately, 20,000 persons were evacuated from the red and orange zones as a prompt precaution against the effects of the eruption, a fraction of whom were temporarily located in a group of 22 hotels and lodging properties in the southern zone of St Vincent.
According to official figures, between April and June a total of XCD 1.091 million were expended for accommodation and meals for the persons using those 22 hotels as shelter.

Note that the information provided was for the months of April and June 2021.

As usual in disasters, this situation will last for a few more months until all the people return home.

We estimate that through December this may involve an additional XCD 1.6 million.

These are additional costs.


Notice that in terms of the tourism sector it partially compensates the forgone revenues.

There are other additional costs related to the eruption of the volcano, such as cleaning costs for buildings and swimming pools.

The SVG hotel association informed us that these costs were small and therefore they had not collected this information.

5.
5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy It is imperative that the Government of SVG continues to aggressively implement its COVI- 19 Recovery and Stimulus Package, especially those related to the tourism sector.

Given that the lodging infrastructure were mostly untouched by the simultaneous disasters, a swift recovery is expected after the international travel resume to pre-pandemic levels.
The SVG tourism sector should build upon its strengths, for instance, promoting the arrival of people of countries with high evacuation rates (USA, Canada and UK), and promoting the resilience of yachting industry and resorts of The Grenadines, both as an opportunity to construct health bubbles offering reassurances to visitors.

St Vincent and the Grenadines has natural health bubbles as it is an archipelago comprised of 32 different islands, islets, and cays.

This must be promoted.


In the context of the medium term, although it may be paradoxical, this eruption should be used as a point to further promote the tourist attraction of the La Soufriére volcano.

All the hiking circuits of the volcano must be reinforced.
To generate added value, tours could be promoted to explain the recent eruption, boat trips where visitors can appreciate the view of the volcano from the sea and promote viewpoints from nearby that have various amenities, as is done in other countries that have volcanoes.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 99 6.

References • ECLAC handle/11362/36823/1/S2013817_en.pdf “Handbook (2014) for disaster assessment”.https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/ • CEPAL (2020).
“Evaluación de los efectos e impactos de la pandemia por COVID-19 sobre el turismo de América Latina y el Caribe: Aplicación de la metodología DaLA para la evaluación de desastres”.
https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/46551-evaluacion-efectos-impactos-la-pandemia-covid- 19-turismo-america-latina-caribe • Hyndman, R., G. Athanasopoulos, C. Bergmeir, G. Caceres, L. Chhay, M. O’Hara-Wild, F. Petropoulos, S. Razbash, E. Wang E y F. Yasmeen (2020), “forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models.

R package version 8.12”, http://pkg.robjhyndman.com/forecast.

• Hyndman, R.J. e Y. Khandakar (2008).


“Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R.” Journal of Statistical Software, 26(3), 1–22.

http://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v027i03.

Tourism–Team Composition 1.

Ministry of Tourism, Sports and Culture Team 2.

Mr. Omar Zambrano – Facilitator 3.


Dr. Omar D. Bello – Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 100 PAGE 100 Infrastructure Sectors PAGE 101 Transport Sector 1.

Summary Transport has been the most affected sector within the whole infrastructure sector.
The total cost of damage and loss as a consequence of the la Soufrière volcanic eruption to this sector is estimated as XCD 74.4 million.

The physical damage was estimated as XCD 30 million, corresponding mainly to partial repair and rebuild (intermediate damage level) of roads and river crossing infrastructure as bridges and fords; while the cost associated to the loss including changes in economic flows, ash removal and cleaning activities, amounts to XCD 44.4 million.
One of the most relevant losses in the transport sector caused by the disaster is associated to cleaning and ash/debris removal from the road network of the mainland Saint Vincent.

The Buildings, Roads and General Services Authority (BRAGSA) estimated a total clean-up cost of the road network of XCD 12.514 million in the red zone, and of XCD 1.1 million; XCD 1.14 million; and XCD 0.811 million in the green, yellow and orange zones respectively.
Cleaning interventions were also required in the airports, especially in the Argyle International Airport at a cost of XCD 0.35 million.

The ashfall partially closed the road network of St. Vincent triggering interruption of traffic, delays and a lack of inputs to other economic sectors, among other.

It is estimated that a loss of profit in land transport of passengers and cargo by traffic interruption is around XCD 1.3 million.
Other cost associated with business interruption issues are integrated in the corresponding sectors.

Total recovery needs were estimated in XCD 89.3 million, being XCD 36 million to cover the needs generated by the damage of physical infrastructure and XCD 53.3 million to account for the losses especially those for cleaning and ash removal needs.
The recovery cost related to damage includes a suggested increase of 20% to account for all those improvements and modernizations to increase the resilience not only to volcanic hazard but also to other future catastrophic events.

Note that approximately XCD 79.6 million of the recovery needs coming from the red zone.
The volcanic eruption triggered a need for a cleaning program with a focus on addressing roads (XCD 15.6 million), river mouths (XCD 15.0 million), drains (XCD 7.7 million), river crossing infrastructure (XCD 14.2 million), footpaths and fallen trees (XCD 0.

258 million) and airports (XCD 0.350 million) that have ash deposits that may even become more problematic with rains.

The programme also predicted that periodic cleaning would be necessary with the onset of future rainstorms.
Based on the recovery needs identified in the analysis, as expected, the recovery strategy suggested the prioritization of the cleaning and removal of ash and debris from the roads, bridges, fords and airports, starting for the region more effected, Georgetown and Sandy Bay.
A short- PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 102 In terms of the potential funding sources, it is important to mention that an allocation amounting to EUR 490,000, dedicated to road maintenance and training, is still available on the program “Road Maintenance and Management System in St Vincent and Grenadines (EUR 5.83M)” implemented by CDB.

It has been proposed by EU Delegation to use that budget to support post eruption cleaning of roads using Labour Intensive Method.
in this report information contained The is based on and/or was provided by the Ministry of Transport, Works, Lands and Physical Planning (MTW) of SVG, the Roads, Buildings and General Services Authority (BRAGSA) and the Argyle International Airport.

term and medium-term budget of XCD 36.6 million and XCD 8.5 million to cover the mentioned cleaning interventions is being proposed.
The long-term budget of XCD 44.2 million, considers repair/reconstructions of transport infrastructure and the continuity of cleaning along Georgetown, Sandy Bay and Chateaubelair Districts; 81 percent is designated to repair/recovery and 19 percent for cleaning.

is critical road networks The development and adequate maintenance of for achieving regionally balanced economic growth as well as promoting inclusive growth by enabling people to access public services and opportunities for advancement.
Moreover, roads are vital for rapidly responding with support services in the event of a disaster.

Figure 1.

Summary of effects and recovery needs Source: Transport Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 103 Road network SVG Source: BRAGSA 2021 report major affected zones (red and orange), major roads extend across 61.9 km while secondary and minor roads, which is crucial for rural communities, covers approximately 112.61 km.

Major Roads.
Major Roads.

There are 5 major and main important roads in the St. Vincent’s road network namely the Windward Highway, the Ivy Joshua Highway, the Vigie Highway, the Nelson Mandela Highway and the Leeward Highway.
The Windward Highway stretches along the eastern coast and commences in Kingstown and traverses through Arnos Vale, Calliaqua, Peruvian Vale, Biabou and Georgetown, terminating at Rabacca, after which the Ivy Joshua Highway commencing at Rabacca, continues along the eastern coast toward the north of the island, traversing through communities in Orange 2.
Context or Sector Background Roads, the deep-water port in Kingstown and the new Argyle International Airport which in 2017 replaced the old E.T Joshua Airport constitute the main transportation network of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Therein, compared to the port and airports, the road network is relatively more complex but is a most predominant transport component in the country.
Road Network The Ministry of Transport, Works, Lands and Physical Planning (MTW) and the Roads, Buildings and General Services Authority (BRAGSA), are the institutions involved in road network development and operations in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Office of the Chief Engineer in the MTW is in charge of developing the road network while BRAGSA is in charge of maintenance of the road network.
The government regulatory authority in charge of the vehicular traffic in the country is the Traffic Branch of the Royal St. Vincent and the Grenadines Police Force (RSVGPF).

St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ road network consists of 829 kilometers according to the Inventory Infrastructure Manual Transport Database 2013.

The road network on mainland St. Vincent comprises 11.2% of major roads, 25.4% percent of secondary roads and 63.3% of minor roads (rural and agricultural access).
Major roads are the arterial routes which carry large volumes of traffic and permit traffic flow through and between cities & towns, while also facilitating travel between major elements of the urban areas.

They are found throughout the length and breadth of the country.

Secondary roads are those that don’t carry a large volume of traffic and are those that provide access within residential neighborhoods to the major roads.

Minor roads are those in rural and agricultural areas.
In the 2 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 104 Hill, Magum, Overland, London, Sandy Bay, Point, Owia and terminates in the village of Fancy.

The combined length of the Windward Highway and the Ivy Joshua Highway is approximately 55 km.

The road has a flexible pavement structure between the capital Kingstown and the village of Sandy Bay, then between Sandy Bay and Fancy it becomes a rigid concrete pavement.

The carriageway has a typical width of 5.5m to 6.5m.
The Nelson Mandela Highway, renamed on July 19, 2018 is an 11km section of the Leeward Highway, commencing in Kingstown and terminating in Layou.

The rest of the Leeward Highway stretches along the western coast; continuing from Layou, through Barrouallie and Chateaubelair, to terminate in Richmond.

19.5km of the Leeward Highway is a flexible pavement structure and 22.9km is a rigid pavement structure with a carriageway typical 5.3m in width.
The Vigie Highway runs through the interior of the island and commences at the Arnos Vale Round about and traverses through Mesopotamia and Yambou, terminating at Peruvian Vale on the Windward Highway.

The length of this road is approximately 10 km.


The road is a flexible pavement structure for which the carriageway has a typical width of 5.3 m. For the eruption event of the La Soufrière Volcano which occurred on 9th April, mainland St Vincent was divided into four hazard risk zones from red to green representing a very high risk to low risk.

The affected major roads extend across 50-60km due to the ash plume.
While affected secondary and minor roads, which are crucial for rural communities, cover about 40%.

Bridges There are 200 bridges of different typologies and materials.

When the bridge is composed by two or more different typologies, especially when it has been widened, it is classified as a mixed bridge.

The graph below gives an overview of the different typologies and materials that relate to bridge construction in SVG.
One of the most important bridges affected by the volcanic eruption and lahar flows was the Rabacca Bridge which is a slab concrete bridge of 3 spans.

Details of this damage will be presented in the disaster effects section.

Figure 2.
Bridges per district (Source: INES; October 2011) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Arch Concrete Arch M asonry Number of bridges per typologies Mixed Fra m e Girder Girder + Arch M asonry Pipe Steel + Girder Slab Slab + Arch M asonry Truss U nkno w n PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 105 Road Network in the Grenadines’ islands The Grenadines road networks comprises of 123.2 km of roadway which are flexible, rigid pavement structures and unpaved roads and has a typical carriageway width of 3m to 4 m. The total length of the five larger Grenadine islands are: Bequia - 46.441 Km, Mustique – 28.187 Km, Canouan – 13.256 Km, Union Island – 28.320 and Mayreau – 7.027 Km.
located about 8.3 km from Kingstown and serves as a major gateway to the Grenadines, with several airlines operating an extensive network of direct domestic flights from AIA to all destinations in the Grenadines.

Table 1.

Summary of the Transport infrastructure in St. Vincent Type of facilities Number/Length Airports There are five airports in SVG: The Argyle International Airport, Canouan Jetport, James F. Mitchell (Bequia) Airport, Mustique Airport and the Union Island Airport.
Argyle International Airport is the most important in the country Mayor roads (Km) Secondary roads (Km) Minor roads (Km) Bridges Airports Ports 128.002 118.102 442.986 200 5 4 3.Sector effects and cost of the effects Assessment of Disaster effects The total cost of the damage caused by the volcanic eruption, based on the available information, has been estimated at XCD 30.0 million while the cost associated with the ash removal and cleaning of roads, drain, removal of fallen trees from roads, cleaning of airports and traffic disruption on roads, was estimated as XCD 44.363 million.
Thus, the total cost of the effects as consequence of the la Soufriere eruption is estimated in XCD 74.363 million Damage in river crossing infrastructure Ministry of Transport, Works, Land & Physical Planning of SVG has categorized the damage of transport infrastructure into 3 levels ranging from 1) superficial damage which require cleaning and disposing of ash (low damage); 2) a second damage level requiring partial repairs and; 3) a high level of damage for those structures impacted catastrophically, structurally compromised and unsafe for use requiring complete replacement of the entire structure.
The evaluation was carried out by the MTW-SVG using mainly visual inspections in the 3 most critical census districts impacted namely Chateaubelair, Georgetown and Sandy Bay.
According to the most recent report relating to “River Crossing and Housing Infrastructure Detailed Damage Assessment” delivered by the Ministry of Transport of SVG, Georgetown has been the most affected district of the country, with 31 river crossings infrastructure elements damaged by the volcanic eruption, of which, 71 percent present low damage and the remaining 29 percent level two of damage, requiring partial repairs.

In Sandy Bay 15 river crossing structures were damaged.
This is represented as 10 structures with minor damage and another 5 structures requiring partial repairs caused by the destruction/loss of bridge rails and/or impact damage caused by river debris and boulders colliding with the structure.

In the case of Chateaubelair District, the 100 percent of PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 106 the 15 affected structures were classified with low damage level requiring minor interventions.
As shown in Table 2, the damage in the Georgetown district amounts to XCD 16.430 million while the cost of the damage in Sandy Bay district has been estimated as XCD 11.965 million.

The cost of river crossing damage was mainly derived by analyzing the damage of the wing walls, river training, scour protection, under pinning, bridge works, drainage works, road works and miscellaneous works.

The Georgetown district, Perseverance Bridge No.


2, Rabacca Dry River Bridge and Agrika River Bridge represent more needs of intervention and actions.

Individually, the cost attributed to damage observed in those bridges was estimated as XCD 3 million; XCD 3.57 million and XCD 3.195 million respectively.

Perseverance Bridge No.

2 upstream inlet was blocked causing an overtopping of the bridge during flood conditions/lahar flows and boulders have been deposited throughout the channel.
The Agrika bridge inlet has been blocked with debris, boulders and other material which caused the channel to be completely filled.

The river overtopped the bridge and caused damage to homes along the riverbanks.

The Rabacca Dry River bridge upstream inlet pier “from Fancy” of the bridge suffered major damage to the protective steel sheet covering, exposing the concrete and steel rebar pier support to abrasion by the heavy flow of the Rabacca Dry River during flood conditions and lahars.
The bridge also endured damage to the bridge rails on the deck.

Miss/Lady Jane and Perseverance No.

3 Bridges present a joint damage approximately of XCD 3.4 million.

The Miss/Lady Jane bridge inlet was block with debris, as such, the bridge was overtopped and functioned as a ford in high flow events.

Perseverance Bridge No.

3 comprises of four (4) 0.9m concrete culverts supporting a concrete deck collapsed following the continued scouring of the foundation support.
Three of the four culvert pipes had damaged or displaced segments.

Beyond the culverts toward the CWSA catchment, the approach fill and foundation support for the retaining wall scoured, causing the caving of the concrete carriageway section.

The river flowed below the invert of the culverts, enabling the cavity to be formed and eventually cave in to make the road impassable for motor vehicles and a safety hazard for pedestrians.
In the case of Waribishy River Bridge, cost attributed to the damage reaches XCD 1.122 million.

This bridge inlet was blocked which allowed for the filling of the upstream channel, which caused the river to flow over the bridge deck as a ford.

The bridge endured additional damage to the bridge rails appears and damage to concrete surfaces.

Bridges such as Perseverance No.

1, No.

4, and No.
1, No.

4, and No.

5, Dickson Village, Chapmans, Dickson, Langley Park, God Save the Queen, between others represent low level of damages which costs ranging from XCD 12,500.00 to XCD 120,000.00.

Karo Point Ford, Owia Little River Ford and Fancy River Ford experienced a damage categorized as level 2, which an associated cost of XCD 1.7 million; XCD 1.5 million and XCD 1.3 million respectively, with river training damage being the most important concern.
In the case of Sandy Bay District, Karo River Bridge, Cayo River Bridge and Owia Big River Bridge damage is categorized as level 2 (necessary partial repairs) with costs estimated as XCD 2.72 million, XCD 2.675 million, and XCD 1.336 million respectively.

Both the Karo and the Cayo River bridges suffered rail damage resulting from the the La Soufrière Eruption.
Their inlets were completely blocked, dams were formed upstream of the bridge deck and the remnants of the wing walls have also been completely destroyed.

The channel upstream of the bridge has been completely filled with river deposits of sand, gravel PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 107 and boulders with these deposits being in excess of 6’-8’ upstream.
The Owia Big River Bridge sustained heavy damage to the carriageway section of the deck with the destruction of the bridge rails by the impact of boulders and other debris during the high flow events following the eruption.

New boulders have been deposited upstream and the bridge inlet has been completely blocked enabling the river to flow on the bridge deck as a ford in its current state.
Other components requiring partial repairs/ reconstructions are the Owia Little River Ford and Fancy River Ford with an associated cost of XCD 2.135 million and XCD 2.36 million respectively.

The Owia Little River Ford sustained heavy damage to the pedestrian foot bridge which was destroyed during a heavy river flow event.

The Fancy River Ford, which has a pedestrian footbridge elevated on the upstream side, sustained additional damage since the last event in 2016.
The foot bridge was blocked impeding the passage of the regular river channel flow in the extreme run off of April 29, 2021.

Bridges as Jumby Point and Kramaku, and other river crossing components as Agrabay river ford, Sandy Bay ford, Sandy Bay ford, Owia ford, Fancy ford, among others, experienced low damage with costs ranging from XCD 16,800.00 to XCD 117,000.00.
Finally, in the Chateaubelair District, it is reported that fifteen river crossings structures require ash removal and cleaning interventions.

All of those structures are bridges with the average cost of cleaning needed being XCD 12,500.00 per bridge.

Given that in the PDNA methodology, cleaning activities are considered as a lost, this cost will be integrated in the loss section.
most current information provided by BRAGSA, physical damage of some components of the road network has been observed in the Sandy Bay and Chateaubelair districts.

Georgetown’s roads were not in this sense affected given that damage has just observed beyond Georgetown toward the north.

It should be iterated at this point that this section is referring exclusively to physical damage of roads and cleaning and ash removal has not considered in this section.
Those cleaning costs are quantified below in the loss section as per the PDNA methodology.

In Sandy Bay, the section of the Windward Highway that crosses the red hazard zone required works for repairing drains and retaining walls with a cost estimated in XCD 215,000.00.

London streets also requires repairs to drains, roadway and retain wall with an approximate value of XCD 295,100.00.
The Magum Road from Main Road upward has experienced damage in is roadway estimated as XCD 178,500.00 while the upper Waterloo Road near to Sheep Pen and the other roads also require repairs to drain, roadway and retaining walls (approximately XCD 335,000.00).

In the Chateaubelair district, the roads that experienced damage and require repairs and construction of drains are the Richmond Road leading to the Sand Mining Site, the earthen road at Fall Piece Richmond and the earthen road at Hog Hole Richmond.
The corresponding estimated costs of damage amount to XCD 81,100.00; XCD 386,240.00 and XCD 96,550.00 respectively.

Repairs to retaining wall at Dark View Rose Bank opposite Keisha Shop are also needed as well as the construction of gabion-check walls and dry pack boulder wall.

Damage in roads Loss The road network of the country did not present significant damage to its infrastructure.
From the In the PDNA methodology, in addition to forgone loss component considers the income, the PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 108 additional costs to keep the service running and thus, this includes the cost of cleaning and removal of the ash/debris caused by the volcanic eruption as well as the loss associated with changes in the economic flows caused by traffic interruption, change in toll rates, increase in the transportation costs as a consequence of use of alternative roads, among others.
Cleaning and ash removal from river crossing infrastructure Based on information provided from the Ministry of Transport, losses of XCD 14.202 million regarding to removal of ash around bridges and fords in the three affected districts have been observed with actions including excavations and disposal of debris.

In Georgetown, cleaning interventions amount to XCD 10.513 million, in Sandy Bay XCD 3.445 million and in Chateaubelair XCD 0.243 million Cleaning and ash removal from roads.
One of the most relevant losses in the transport sector caused by the La Soufrière volcanic eruption is associated with cleaning and ash/ debris removal from the road network of the mainland Saint Vincent.

The cleanup assessment has conducted by BRAGSA.

To estimate the extent of road cleaning an approximate average road width is considered as for major roads 24 feet, Secondary roads 16 feet, and minor roads 12 feet.
The average thickness of ash deposits was estimated as follows by zone: Green Zone 0.5 inches, Yellow Zone - 2 inches, Orange Zone - 4 inches, Red Zone - 12 inches.

It was determined that the ash from roadways on the Windward side will go to Rabacca, and on the Leeward side will go to Richmond.

The Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report from the Word Bank provides an estimated ashfall accumulation map on St. Vincent Island (Annex, Figure 3).
BRAGSA estimated a total clean-up cost of the road network of XCD 1.1 million in the green zone, XCD 1.140 million in the yellow zone, XCD 0.811 million in the orange zone, and XCD 12.5 million in the red zone.

The Georgetown and Sandy Bay districts were the most affected by the ash and the roads belonging to those districts is where the cleaning should be concentrated.
Estimates suggest that the cost of cleaning and ash removal from major roads in Georgetown amount to XCD 6.7 million, XCD 4 million for minor roads and XCD 0.049 million for secondary roads.

In the case of Sandy Bay, cleaning costs are exclusively attributed to minor roads and estimated at XCD 1.68 million.
located In the census Districts of Barroaullie and Colonaire, both in the yellow zone and the Chateubelair census District located in the orange zone, the cost of cleaning has been estimated as XCD 491,415.00, XCD 648,585.00 and XCD 811,550.00 respectively.

Kingstown, Suburb of Kingstown, Calliaqua, Marriaqua, and Bridgetown, districts located in the green zone, 60 percent of the cleaning cost corresponds to minor roads, 23 percent to secondary and the remaining 17 percent to major roads.
Drain and river mouth cleaning The volcanic eruption triggered a need for a cleaning program with a focus on addressing drains that have ash deposits that may become problematic with rains.

The costs estimated by BRAGSA also predicted that periodic cleaning would be necessary with the onset of future rainstorms.

In the red zone, the cost of drain cleaning was estimated as XCD 6 million and for the green, yellow and orange zone this was estimated as XCD 3 million.
Several watercourses PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 109 were silted, and some were blocked by heavy flow and volcanic deposits; this was especially visible in the red zone.

The cost estimated to cleaning the river mouths reaches XCD 3.477 million.

Traffic disruption The ash fall caused the closure of part of the road network of St. Vincent.

Depending on the hazard zone, the disruption of the traffic lasted for a couple or even several days, at the end of July.
The evaluation team conducted a field visit to both the Leeward and Fancy sites and it was confirmed that while most of the ash has been cleaned, in the north eastern part of Sandy Bay and Owia, the severe ash fall was still being cleaned.
Given that the road network is the key component for the interaction among the economic sectors and population of the country, the blockage of road traffic triggers delays and a lack of inputs, which translate in losses for the different sectors (accounted within each corresponding sector).

In the case of transport, the evaluation team has agreed that the most important loss brought about by the closure of roads is due to the loss of utility in the transport of passenger and cargo.
This loss has been estimated as 25% of the operation costs with this being obtained based on information from ECLAC 2013 and subsequently updated.

The annual average daily traffic in SVG was estimated based on “2000 Mouchel Preliminary Study Report for Windward Highway” and other reports.

From those data, and using the length of the roads, it was estimated that the total utility loss was of XCD 1.295 million with major utility loss derives from interruption of Georgetown’s major roads.
Airport The country’s air space was closed because of the ash for about two weeks for passengers and five weeks for cargo flights.

The airport closure can impact industries that rely on external visitors, especially the tourism industry which is also a large source of income for residents in Saint Vincent.

The volcanic eruption further aggravated the already complex situation of the country already hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, this is captured in detail in the assessment of the Tourism Sector.
Ash removal and cleaning operations were required with this cost being covered by the airport budgedt and also by other private companies.

The total cost of cleaning amounted to XCD 350,000.00.

The Grenadines’ airports were also closed on some days following the eruption, based on security protocols.

Despite efforts to get the necessary information to estimate costs due to closure of the airports, until the completion of this report, this was not possible.
Should this information be made available, loss figures are expected to increase.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 110 Table 2.
Summary of damage and losses Item Damage Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Public Private Public Private River Crossing Infrastructure incurred damage in George- town District River Crossing Infrastructure incurred damage in Sandy Bay District 16,430,930 11,965,349 Road infrastructure incurred damage in Chateaubelair District 580,694 Road infrastructure incurred damage in Sandy Bay District 1,023,633 Loss Cleaning river crossing structures of Chateaubelair District Removal of ash on river crossing structures in Georgetown District Removal of ash on river crossing structures in Sandy Bay Dis- trict Ash removal and cleaning of roadways.
Green zones Ash removal and cleaning of roadways.

Yellow zones Ash removal and cleaning of roadways.

Orange zones Ash removal and cleaning of roadways.
Red zones Drain cleaning orange, yellow and green zones Drain cleaning red zones River cleaning costs green zone River cleaning costs yellow zone River cleaning costs orange zone River cleaning costs red zone Removal of fallen trees form roads Removal of ash from footpaths Loss of profit incurred from loss of mining activities at Rabac- ca Commercial Operations Loss of profit in land transport of passengers and cargo by traffic interruption Airports: ash removal and cleaning operations Loss of airport revenues by cargo and passengers traffic in- terruption 243,750 10,513,177 3,445,788 1,099,600 1,140,000 811,553 12,513,833 3,000,000 6,000,000 837,500 405,000 660,000 1,575,000 217,000 41,000 214,933 1,295,000 70,000 280,000 NA NA TOTAL 30,000,606 - 42,788,134 1,575,000 Source Transport Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 111 4.
Linking the effects to the human impact Roads The road network was impacted greatly in the red and orange hazard zones, as a result, residents evacuated in these regions cannot go back home and resume normalcy, with flow of goods also blocked.

People living in areas close to the volcano rely mainly on agriculture and fisheries as their main source of livelihoods with obstruction of these roads makes it impossible for people living in this area to work, and even access to food being restricted.
Agriculture and fisheries rely heavily on transport movement for the purpose to deliver the products from the coast to inland; moreover, agricultural and fishery products often have limited shelf life, so road damage and blockages will not allow them to be kept and arrive at the local markets in a best condition which can result in the quality worsening for several agricultural There are approximately 10,438 products.
registered farmers operating in the country (see agriculture sector report), of which 27.5 percent are located in the red and orange zones and the remaining 72.5 percent in the yellow and green hazard zones.

According to the agriculture sector report, 2,875 registered farmers and 278 fisherfolk were dislocated from the red and orange zones.

Land traffic interruption increases the difficulties for recovery in those zones and can cause serious 5.
Recovery Needs and Strategy drawbacks to the normal operation of the farmers which were not evacuated some Furthermore, factories/businesses are unable to obtain the required raw materials/ products in severely impacted area.

As a result, enterprises in the area may be forced to suspend production, causing economic losses to the enterprises and reducing the employment for individuals.
The interruption of income sources and great economic losses will impact livelihoods and the inaccessibility of workers and professionals to their work places due to the closure of roads also having a negative impact in the household incomes and in the operation of companies/ institutions/factories.
Airports The airports have been forced to close due to the impact of volcanic ash, which is an important external transport channel for the main island besides the seaport, especially The Argyle International Airport.

It will also impact industries that rely on external visitors, especially the tourism industry which is also a very large source of income for residents in Saint Vincent.
At the same time, the import and export of goods on the island can cause delays or cancellations in the absence of aerial route connections, and enterprises could suffer economic loss at a certain degree.

Recovery needs section covers the necessary costs to overcome the identified damages and losses generated by the volcanic eruption with table 3 below summarising those costs identifying some of the relevant justifications and actions.
The total needs amount to XCD 89.327 million, being XCD 36 million to cover the needs generated by the damage of physical infrastructure and XCD 53.3 million to account for the losses especially those for cleaning and ash removal needs.

The recovery cost related to damage includes a suggested increase of 20% to account for all those improvements and modernizations to build back better and increase resilience to future catastrophic events.
Note that approximately XCD 79.6 million of the recovery needs costs relates to needs specific to the red zone.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 112 Table 3.

Recovery Needs item Damage Loss Justification.

Needs coming from the analysis of effects and impacts.

Needs (XCD) Damage River Crossing Infra- structure incurred damage in George- town District 16,430,930 Excavation, Reinstate/repair road approach at Agrika River Bridge, Perseverance Bridge No.
3 and Karo Point Ford Reinstate/repair wing walls to Karo Point Ford, Agrika Riv- er Bridge, Waribishy River Bridge, Lady Jane River Bridge, Perseverance Bridge No.

2 and Perseverance Bridge No.

3 Provide river training to Karo Point Ford, Agrika River Bridge, Noel River Ford, Tourama River Ford, Waribishy River Bridge, Rabacca (Dry River) Bridge, Lady Jane Bridge, Perseverance Bridge No.

2 and Perseverance Bridge No.
3 Provision of scour protection and under pinning of bridg- es and fords Reinstate bridge rails for the Agrika River Bridge, Waribishy River Bridge, Rabacca (Dry River) Bridge, Lady Jane Bridge Excavation, reinstate road approach at Karo Bridge Reinstate bridge wing walls to Karo Bridge, Cayo Bridge, Owia Big River Bridge 19,717,116 River Crossing Infra- structure incurred damage in Sandy Bay District Road infrastructure incurred damage in Chateaubelair District Road infrastructure incurred damage in Sandy Bay District Losses Cleaning river crossing structures of Chateaubelair District 11,965,349 Provide river training to Karo River Bridge, Cayo River Bridge, Owia Big River Bridge & Fancy River Ford 14,358,419 Provision of scour protection and under pinning of bridg- es and fords Reinstate bridge rails for the Karo River Bridge, Cayo River Bridge and Owia Big River Bridge 580,694 1,023,633 Reconstruction of roadways, retaining walls and drains due to lahars and buidup of volcanic ash on roadways and drains Reconstruction of roadways, retaining walls and drains due to lahars and buildup of volcanic ash on roadways and drains 696,833 1,228,360 243,750 Removal of ash on bridges; cleaning of rivers upstream and downstream of bridge.
243,750 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 113 Removal of ash on bridges and fords; cleaning of rivers upstream and downstream of bridge.

10,513,177 Excavation and disposal of debris dammed at Karo Point Ford, Agrika River Bridge, Noel River Ford, Tourama River Ford, Waribishy River Bridge, Rabacca (Dry River) Bridge, Lady Jane Bridge and Perseverance Bridge No.

2 10,513,177 Removal of ash on bridges and fords; cleaning of rivers upstream and downstream of bridge.
3,445,788 Excavation and disposal of debris dammed upstream of Karo Bridge, Cayo Bridge, Owia Little River Ford, Owia Big River Bridge and Fancy Ford 3,445,788 3,051,153 Ash removal and cleaning of roadways -green,yewllow and orange 3,051,153 12,513,833 Ash removal and cleaning of roadways -red zone 12,513,833 3,000,000 Drain cleaning of roads located in orange hazard zone 3,000,000 6,000,000 Drain cleaning of roads located in the red hazard zone in 2021 and plus the needs of cleaning of drains for 2022 and 2013.
12,000,000 1,902,500 River cleaning costs for green, yellow and orange zone 1,902,500 1,575,000 River cleaning costs for green, yellow and orange zone in 2021 and plus the needs of cleaning of rivers for 2022 and 2013.
5,770,000 217,000 Clear the roads of the affected zones of fallen trees 217,000 41,000 Removal of ash from footpaths from the affected zone 41,000 Removal of ash and cleaning operation in the airports 350,000 350,000 1 Tractor for cleaning process within the airport and also to contribute with cleaning of roads.
2 circular sweepers 278,100 89,327,028 Removal of ash on river crossing struc- tures in Georgetown District Removal of ash on river crossing struc- tures in Sandy Bay District Ash removal and cleaning of roadways - green, yellow and orange zones Ash removal and cleaning of roadways - red zone Drain cleaning or- ange, yellow and green zones Drain cleaning red zones River cleaning costs green, yellow and orange zones River cleaning costs red zone Removal of fallen trees from roads Removal of ash from footpaths Airports: ash removal and cleaning oper- ations Total 30,000,606 42,853,201 Source: Transport Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 114 The recovery needs prioritization matrix shown below grouped the cost of activities and interventions for the transport sector in short, medium and long term.
Thus, for short term, the cost of the recovery needs was estimated as XCD 36.596 million, for intermediate actions XCD 8.5 million and for long term, XCD 44.226 million.

The totality of the cost for short and intermediate terms are interventions and activities with the highest priority related to cleaning and ash removal from the roads, from river crossing infrastructures and from airports as well as the removal of fallen trees from roads and removal of ash from footpaths.
The long-term budget for recovery in the transport sector considers repair/ reconstructions of transport infrastructure and the continuity of cleaning along Georgetown, Sandy Bay and Chateaubelair Districts; 81 percent is designated to repair/recovery and 19 percent for cleaning.

Table 4.
Recovery needs prioritization Intervention/Activity Short Run Medium Long Run Priority (1 a 5) Comment Cost XCD Damage Repairs to River Crossing Infrastruc- ture incurred damage in George- town District Repairs River Crossing Infrastructure incurred damage in Sandy Bay Dis- trict Repairs to Road infrastructure in- curred damage in Chateaubelair District Repair road infrastructure incurred damage in Sandy Bay District Loss Cleaning river crossing structures of Chateaubelair District 243,750 Removal of ash on river crossing structures in Georgetown District 10,513,177 Removal of ash on river crossing structures in Sandy Bay District Ash removal and cleaning of road- ways in green zone Ash removal and cleaning of road- ways in yellow zone 3,445,788 1,099,600 1,140,000 19,717,116 14,358,419 696,833 1,228,360 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 19,717,116 14,358,419 696,833 1,228,360 243,750 10,513,117 3,445,788 1,099,600 1,140,000 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Ash removal and cleaning of road- ways orange in zones 811,553 Ash removal and cleaning of road- ways red zones 6,256,917 3,128,458 3,128,458 Drain cleaning orange, yellow and green zones zones 3,000,000 Drain cleaning red zones 6,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 River cleaning costs green zone River cleaning costs yellow zone River cleaning costs orange zone 837,500 405,000 660,000 River cleaning costs red zone 1,575,000 2,097,500 2,097,500 Removal of fallen trees from roads Removal of ash from footpaths Airports: removal of ash and clean- ing operations 217,000
 41,000 350,000 Airports: Acquisition of a tractor for cleaning and 2 circular sweepers 278,100 PAGE 115 811,553 12,513,833 3,000,000 12,000,000 837,500 405,000 660,000 5,770,000 217,000 41,000 350,000 278,100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 Washing of ash de- posits on volcano slopes over time will require, short, imme- diate and long run attention Washing of ash deposits from em- bankments over time will require, short, immediate and long run attention Washing of ash de- posits on volcano slopes over time will require, short, imme- diate and long run attention Executed Help to restore airport operations faster.
Facilitate early arrival of internation- al aid and reduce business interruption losses TOTAL 36,596,284 8,504,058 44,226,686 89,327,028 Source: Transport Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 116 Sources of information, references • MTW (2021).

River Crossing and Housing Infrastructure Detailed Damage Assessment La Soufrière Eruption 2021.

Ministry of Transport, Works, Lands & Physical Planning, Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

• • • BRAGSA, (2021).


Initial Clean Up Assessment – Ongoing Eruption.

La Soufriere Eruption, APRIL 2021.

The Argyle International Airport (2021).

Work notes of the cleaning and ash removal costs caused by the La Soufrière volcanic eruption.

BRAGSA (2021).

Work notes of the damage cost assessment in road network of St. Vincent caused by the La Soufrière volcanic eruption.

• CDEMA (2021).
• CDEMA (2021).

Detailed Damage Sectoral Analysis (DDSA) Report on the Explosive Eruption of La Saufrière in St. Vincent and Grenadines.

• Work Bank (2021).

La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report.
Annex Transport sector evaluation team • Nikolai Lewis (MTW-SVG) • Natoya Thomas (BRAGSA) • • • • Jude Regis (CDB) Eddison Edwards (Argyle International Airport) Jeannette Fernandez (UNDP) José Antonio León, European Union – Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 117 Figure 3.

Estimated ashfall accumulation map on St. Vincent Island as of April 26, 2021.

Soufrière volcanic eruption.

Source GRADE report – The Work Bank 2021.


PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 118 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene - WASH Sector 1.

Summary The damage and loss experienced by the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) sector as a consequence of the La Soufrière volcanic eruption was relatively low, coming in at XCD 1.64 million, which represents approximately two percent of the total effects, in terms of cost, to the infrastructure sector.
The physical damage amounts to XCD 0.305 million while the loss incurred is approximately XCD 1.34 million.

Damage in the WASH sector includes the cost for repairs such as rebuilding catchment areas, intake structures, pipework and damaged access roads while the costs associated with the loss in the WASH sector includes water service interruption, cleaning and ash removal activities, the use of trucks for delivering water to households and quality water testing to note a few.
Although the economic consequences of the volcano eruption have been relatively low for the WASH sector, there has been intermittent and even suspension of the water supply, especially in the red and orange zones.

At the time of crafted this report and according to estimations of the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CWSA), as at the time of writing this report, in the red zone, 1,380 inhabitants were offline from the water network and 2,713 inhabitants suffered 91 days of water interruption.
In the case of the orange zone, 6,241 inhabitants have undergone disruption in water services for about 35 days, while 25,000 inhabitants for 7 days.

In the green and yellow hazard zones, the disruption of water services ranged from 1 to 3 days and impacted around 60,000 inhabitants.

Lack of water forced the population to reduce their water use which would have impacted personal hygiene, including hand washing practices, which is critical for coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.

in some areas.
in some areas.

For Furthermore, relocation of people from the red and orange zones to the green and yellow zones caused a shift in the water demand to the water instance, supply systems extremely high usage from all coastal villages initially prevented water from reaching higher elevation inland villages such as Stubbs, Carapan, Diamond State, Biabou, Cedars, Bridgetown, Reeves Level, South Union, Choice village, Lower Calder, Park Hill, South Rivers, Chester Cottage, Colonaire.
The total recovery needs were estimated to be XCD 1.89 million, with XCD 365,400 required to cover the needs generated by the damage to physical infrastructures, XCD 435,000 required to cover the needs related to cleaning interventions and losses incurred by trucking water, and XCD 1 million is required to improve the local technical capacities and the purchase of 2 tankers.
The recovery cost related to damage includes a suggested 20% increase to account for the improvements and modernizations required to increase the resilience of the WASH sector to future catastrophic events (that is, build back better).
As expected, the priority of the intervention is given to the repair/reconstruction actions and ash removal to the Water Supply Systems PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 119 (WSS) located in the red zone (Fancy, Sandy Bay and Owia WSS) and those located in the orange hazard zone (Perseverance, Jennings and Hermitage WSS).

Currently, 1,380 inhabitants in the red zone are still offline from the water network as a consequence of the disaster.
Thus, restoring the water systems, maintaining water quality to acceptable WHO standards, testing, chlorination and the implementation of public education and awareness campaigns and starting with the upgrade of the system for the collection, monitoring and management of hydrological and other data on water resources are the priority.
The medium to long term needs are more related to targeted assessments to increase the capacity for water trucking/distribution, developing/ enhancing the necessary legislation, codes and options for testing, storage and treatment of water.

Based on this prioritization, the cost of the short-term recovery needs is estimated to be XCD 659,000; for intermediate actions XCD 551,300 and for long term actions, XCD 680,000.

Figure 1.

Summary of effects and recovery needs 2.


Context or Sector Background Source: WASH Evaluation Team Water Management Authority The Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has majority ownership of the water sector being managed by the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CWSA), which is a quasi-Governmental Organization within the Ministry of Health and the Environment.

CWSA is also responsible for supply of water in the Grenadines, however, its operation has not materialized.
There are several private desalination plant operators within Bequia, Cancuan and Union Island operated mainly by the private sector but the populace practice rainwater harvesting.

In addition, a minor percentage of person living in the Grenadines use well water.
Several other stakeholder agencies in SVG have responsibility and can impact the WASH sector such as the Environmental Health Division (EHD), The Ministry of Agriculture, Industry, Forestry, Fisheries and Rural Transformation, The St. Vincent and the Grenadines Bureau of Standards (SVGBS) and The Physical Planning Unit (PPU).
Water Availability Availability and access to potable water supply is one of the fundamental determinants of health, quality of life and progress towards sustainable PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 120 development.

Average national demand for water on the island is met mostly by the surface freshwater sources, through the abundance of rivers and streams ensuring that a surplus of water is generally available.
In the drier islands of the Grenadines, on the other hand, streams and rivers are not available and water is mainly harvested from rainwater and underground water sources (SDG Progress Report, 2020).

Therefore, while mainland St. Vincent does not experience severe water supply constraints, the Grenadines, however, are sometimes stressed during the dry season due to lack of available freshwater resources.
Water Usage/Demand Water usage is primarily distributed among domestic, tourism, agriculture and commercial sectors.

Consumption is greatest by the domestic sector (approximately 75%), followed by the tourism sector (15%) and finally the agriculture and commercial sector (10%) (CDB, 2013).

Based on a population of 120,000 and a production of 27MLD, the consumption level is estimated at 225 l/p/c/d.
A CEMI (2007) Report indicated that per capita consumption in the Grenadines varies from 46 l/p/c/d to 136 l/p/c/d (CDB, 2013).

Water Quality Water quality monitoring is carried out to WHO Guidelines and PAHO Parameters; the most frequent parameters tested are pH, turbidity, residual chlorine, fecal and total coliform.
Major operational challenges to maintaining water quality and supply continuity throughout all water supply systems are the rapid increase in raw water turbidity during severe rainfall events, which often ranges between 10-75 NTUs and can exceed 100 NTUs at times; there are some risks to the delivery of safe drinking water due to the state of the distribution network, for which the age, condition and level of maintenance are contributing factors (PAHO, 2013).
However, the recently completed SDG Voluntary National Review (2020) indicates that SVG is doing very well in the management of both water and sanitation services.

The SDG VNR (2020) indicates that the proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services (2018) in whole SVG is 93.8 percent, being 90.6 in rural Saint Vincent, 96.2 in urban Saint Vincent and in the case of the Grenadines, 97.3%.
Water Supply Sources, Treatment and Distribution systems The mainland Saint Vincent is relatively well served with water distribution networks, which includes 70 public standpipes located throughout the country which provide ready access to potable water as a basic requirement and serve the less fortunate residents (SDG VNR, 2020).

The population is supplied by 12 drinking water systems with a total average daily production of 5.51 million Imperial gallons per day (mgd) (25,000 m3).
The water sources for these systems comprises fifteen surface-water intakes of this system providing 94% of the production (PAHO, 2013).

The 12 water supply systems include: Dalaway, Jennings, Majorca, John Hill, Mamoon, Montreal, Hermitage, Perseverance, Layou, Sandy Bay, Owia and Fancy.

The latter three are located in the red zone, Perseverance and Jennings are located in the orange zone and Hermitage is very close to the boarder with the orange zone.
The Dalaway water supply system, supplied by the Buccament Watershed, is the most important system for the population of St. Vincent, producing approximately 2.2 mgd (10,000 m3/day) of water, that is, about 40% of the total drinking water supplied including all communities in South Leeward and the Capital Kingstown.
The Majorca water catchment area as well as the Majorca water supply system are the oldest ones, built in 1948, and provides approximately 13% of the total daily demand of St. Vincent island-wide.

The most PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 121 guarantee freshwater supplies to large hotels, other tourism investments and community residents.
Sewage System and SVG throughout Predominantly the Grenadines, sewage treatment consists of septic tanks for collection and treatment and soak- away systems for disposal of effluent.

However, in central Kingstown and a small area in Arnos Vale, there is a municipal sewerage system (UNEP-CEP/ RCU, 2010).

This system was constructed in the early 1970s and is approximately 5.8 km of PVC sewers ranging in size from 6 inches to 24 inches.
All sewers feed to collection tanks on the sea front, which has a capacity of 54,000 gallons.

The sewage is pumped out to sea via a 400mm PVC outfall (CDB, 2013).

Wastewater reuse is not widely practiced in SVG and could be attributed to the fact that there is limited national policies and guidelines, legislation, and regulations to guide and regulate wastewater reuse (GEF, 2017).
Under the GEF Caribbean Regional Fund for Wastewater Management (CReW Project), the SVG Belle Isles Correctional Facility was a pilot of a wastewater treatment facility (GEF, 2017) unfortunately this project is yet to materialize.

Other Sanitation Practices and Hygiene Sanitation Facilities options in SVG include flush toilet linked to sewer - 12%, flush toilet linked to septic tank - 57% and pit latrine - 30% (Poverty Assessment Report 2007/2009).
The SDG VNR (2020) indicates that the proportion of population using managed sanitation services, including a hand washing facility with soap and water (2017) in the entire SVG is 93.8 percent, being 87.3 percent in the rural Saint Vincent, 99.9 in the urban Saint Vincent and 97.3 percent in the case of the Grenadines islands.

recently constructed system is the Jennings Water Intake on the Jennings Valley River producing approximately 0.635 mgd (2,400 m3/day) serving 14,880 inhabitants (PAHO, 2013).
SVG’s water supply and distribution system also include storage tanks which assist in providing continuous drinking water supply, including via the pipeline networks.

St. Vincent’s public water storage systems consist of storage at treatment plants, in the form of clear wells, and at distribution tanks located throughout the various water supply zones.

Approximately 47 tanks provide a total storage capacity of 5.24 million gallons.

These tanks are generally cleaned and flushed quarterly (PAHO, 2013).
The treatment plants as well as the surface water intakes use mainly gravity systems to the water distribution, harnessing the high altitudes where they are located.

Water treatment processes range from sedimentation, slow sand filtration and chlorination, to chlorination only on most of the systems.

A network of 128 miles (206 km) of pipelines, from 3” (75 mm) to 16” (406.4 mm) in diameter, distributes the water produced by the treatment facilities to 11 supply zones (PAHO, 2013).
from tanks rainwater Sources of supply of water in the Grenadines include roof storage catchments – private and public; public concrete rainwater catchments; seasonal ponds and wells; water transfers from property to property; and transfers by sea from Saint Vincent.

The latter is particularly the case during drought periods.
A number of wells and boreholes exist in the larger Grenadine islands either for test purposes (under the Groundwater Management Programme) or as a source of freshwater for domestic use by residents or commercial entities.
Recently, desalination as a source of potable water is being used as an adaptation measure to climate change and to PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 122 WASH in Shelters Due to the nature of this hazard and the resulting need for many individuals to move into shelters, this baseline highlights the WASH situation in shelters.
An assessment of the WASH capacity of shelters36 was performed in May 2021 that highlights the capacities that exist including those capacities before the volcanic eruption, that is, the baseline.

The following key points should be noted: none of the 14 designated shelters visited were adequately prepared to accommodate the evacuees according to SPHERE standards (https:// spherestandards.org/); for instance, approximately 18% of shelters do not have 3 days of water storage capacities.
Whilst 100% had flush toilets, only 81% has functional locks on toilets and 50% did not have sanitation bins in female toilets.

Further, capacities of the shelter in terms of the number of toilets per person, it was found that only 1 of the shelters assessed had more than 20 persons per toilet.
Impact of COVID-19 in the WASH Sector COVID-19 promotional activities have increased the numbers of hand washing stations at public and private entities, as well as, engendering a sense of good personal hand hygiene among the populace.

This has resulted in an increased demand for water.

Table 1.
Summary of the WASH infrastructure in St. Vincent Type of facilities WASH Surface water supply systems Water – catchments: raw water intakes Drinking water systems Water distribution network (Km) Public standpipes Sewage line (km) Total Source: WASH Evaluation Team Number Public 12 17 12 206 km 70 5.8 3.Effects Damage and Loss36 Damage and loss experienced by the WASH sector as a consequence of La Soufrière volcanic eruption was relatively low, coming in at XCD 1.64 million, which represents approximately two percent of the total effects cost in the infrastructure sector.
Damage includes the cost for repairs such as rebuilding catchment areas, intake structures, pipework and damaged access roads while the cost associated with loss includes water service interruption, cleaning and ash removal activities, the use of trucks for delivering water to households, quality water testing to note a few.

36 Survey of 83 shelters in 5 regions in the Green Zone.
8 shelters not assessed either because no one was occupying the shelter or because there were COVID cases present and the team did not enter the premises (WASH LAC Report, 2021) PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 123 Total effects37 have been estimated at XCD 1.642 million with 8% or XCD 1.338 million corresponding to loss38.

Notable XCD 1.192 million or 89% of the losses were incurred by the public sector and XCD 0.146 million or 11%, being incurred by the private sector.
The private sector loss is primarily related to the use of trucks to deliver water to the affected population.

In terms of Damage39, approximately XCD 0.305 million was estimated to have been incurred by the public sector with a detailed breakdown of the effects being seen in Table 2. in the “red zone” with a combined production of approximately one third of the nation’s water supply.
These sources suffered major ash deposits, falling trees in the catchment and along access road creating major siltation problems at the catchment sites.

Considerable resources of chainsaws and large labour forces were deployed to clear and clean roadways, treatment plant facilities and catchments sites.

Ensuing lahars created by rainfall severely damaged access roads and even a bridge to the Perseverance treatment plant restricting vehicular access to that site.
Three of the smaller water production system located in the North Eastern Section of the island in the very high volcanic hazard (red zone) and serving a small rural population (4500) of majority indigenous Garifuna population, are the only ones to suffer major structural damage and long- term water disruption.

All, approximately 4,500, residents were safely evacuated to the south of the island prior to the explosive eruption and this area remains largely uninhabited with no customers to supply.
The damages to these systems were caused primarily by the resultant lahars during heavy rainfalls after the explosive eruption of the volcano.

The river catchment structures at these three sources were fully destroyed and major pipelines partially destroyed.

Efforts to complete temporary repairs are still being hampered by the recurring lahars.
An alternative source using an existing Borehole in the area has been identified as a priority for medium to long term development to replace the Sandy Bay and Owia Water supply systems.
The Hermitage, Perseverance and Jennings catchments are in the high hazard (orange) zone and are much larger facilities than those The Majorca, Montreal, and Dallaway catchments are located in the Low and Moderate Hazard zones and as expected their primary concerns were with the ashfall and the deterioration of quality as a result.
These systems were out of commission for an average of three days while the quality of the water was verified through local and international testing with the assistance of entities such as Pan American Health Organization, Caribbean Water and Waste Water Association, Caribbean Water and Sewerage Association and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
A recorded total of 437,805 gallons of water was distributed via trucking from 11 to 30 April 2021 with the trucks being paid for by various public and private entities.

A pumping, disinfection and distribution operation was set up using generator and emergency lighting as it operated on average 18 hours per day initially.

Relocation of people from the red and orange zones to the green and yellow zones causing a shift in water demand for individual water systems.
Interruption of the water services as a consequence of the eruption induced a lack of water to certain 37 38 39 as per the PDNA methodology which includes cost of damage, forgone income and additional costs forgone income plus the additional costs to keep the service going cost to replace or rebuild infrastructure and physical assets in the WASH sector PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 124 parts of the population and inconsistent supply.
According to data provided by CWSA, in the red zone, Fancy and Owia water supply systems (WSS) are still offline and loss due to the interruption of service is estimated at XCD 139,989 to date.

Sandy Bay water supply system, which is also located in the red zone, was offline for 91 days, which caused a loss of production estimated at XCD 188,540.
In the case of the WSS located in the orange zone: Perseverance (35 days offline), Jennings (7 days offline) and Hermitage (7 days offline), the loss were estimated to be XCD 210,161, XCD 115,312 and XCD 74,398 respectively.

The WSS Dallaway, Montreal and Majorca within the yellow and green zones experienced combined losses by interruption of production of XCD 174,205.

See details in Table 2.

Table 2.


Summary of the Effects in the WASH Sector Item Damage Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Public Private Public Private Red Zone.

Water supply systems Fancy, Owia and Sandy Bay.

Major Damaged to catchment area, Intake structures and pipework.

Still very vulnerable from Lahars during heavy rains Orange Zone.

Water supply systems Perseverance, Jenning and Hermitage.

Damaged to access roads and a bridge.

241,600 62,930 Loss Red Zone.


Water supply systems Fancy cleaning and ash removal Orange Zone.

Water supply systems Perseverance, Jenning and Hermitage.

Removal of fell trees blocking access to plant and Intake.

Major Ash clean-up operation at plant and intake Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Fancy WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Owia WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Sandy Bay WSS.
Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Perseverange WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Jennings WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Hermitage WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Dallaway WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Montreal WSS.

Loss in sale revenue by water service disruption Majorca WSS.
Loss by trucks delivering water; private and public, hired by and paid for by Various entities Cost of Water quality test required Cleaning of chemical toilets in shelters TOTAL 72,480 26,970 54,825 85,164 188,540 210,161 115,312 74,398 107,303 24,831 42,071 145,570 145,570 30,000 14,400 Source: WASH Evaluation Team 304,530 - 1,192,026 145,570 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 125 4.
Linking the effects to the human impact The volcanic eruption has caused the suspension and intermittence of the water supply as well as a reduction of consumption in existing home connections in several zones of St. Vincent, especially in the red and orange hazard zones.

Drinking water transmission production and services provided by CWSA were interrupted inducing a lack of water to certain part of the population and inconsistent supply to a much larger proportion of the population.
According to estimations of CWSA, in the red zone, 1,380 inhabitants remain offline from the water network and 2,713 inhabitants suffered 91 days of water interruption.

In the case of the orange zone 6,241 inhabitants have undergone disruption in water services for about 35 days, while 25,000 inhabitants for 7 days.

In the green and yellow hazard zones, the disruption of water services ranged from 1 to 3 days and impacted around 60,000 inhabitants.
Temporary disruption/reduction of water supply in those areas can lead to an increase in the cost of water, forcing the population to reduce the water use in personal hygiene and in general, deprive the households on their basic living condition.

Relocation of people from the red and orange zones to the green and yellow zones caused a shift in water demand for the water systems in some areas.
Extremely high usage from all coastal villages initially prevented water from reaching higher elevation inland villages as Stubbs, Carapan, Diamond State, Biabou, Cedars, Bridgetown, Reeves Level, South Union, Choice village, Lower Calder, Park Hill, South Rivers, Chester Cottage, Colonaire.
Population displacement usually triggers the need for significant humanitarian efforts, and also brings about a negative change in the standard of living which reduces the quality of life of households, especially for those displaced from the red zone.

Furthermore, change in the population density and displacements increase pressure on water and sanitation infrastructure, which in turn increases the risks of disease in the host community and in shelters.
This did not present favorable conditions during a pandemic.

Solid waste services were suspended to several zones and communities as CWSA collection trucks could not access communities due to ash blocking the transport infrastructure which of course increased the risk of disease along the affected communities.
Regarding the living conditions within shelters, as reported by Detailed Damage Sectoral Assessment report, most shelters that were assessed did not have sufficient running water to cover the needs of the population being housed.

People used water from the sea and nearby streams to augment water for bathing, laundry and general hygiene.

There is a need for increased resources to support WASH in shelters.
In addition, it is very important to ensure the adequate supply of hygiene supplies (soap, hand sanitizer, masks) and cleaning supplies (brooms, mops, toilet brushes, disinfectant etc.)

to the affected communities.

After testing by PAHO and UNICEF field operatives, the CWSA managers were briefed about the low residual chlorine in the pipe-borne water and delivery trucks, which can increase the risk of water-borne diseases among the population.
However, this issue was addressed and the free chlorine residual level in the public supply system was increased and mostly reached the recommended 0.5 mg/L standard.

A quick response means a reduction of human impacts caused by the disaster.
Given the existing linkages between livelihoods and water supply, prolonged disruption to water PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 126 and sanitation services can be expected to have a disproportionate impact on women and girls via the social costs incurred through the time and energy spent collecting water, threat of violence and sexual harassment, diminished childcare, among others.

5.
5.

Recovery Needs and Strategy This type of volcanic eruption generates large amounts of airborne particulate matter which adversely affects open water tanks and treatment systems supplied by surface water sources.

Volcanic ash and gases can contaminate water sources.

The population movement from evacuated zones will generate differing demand needs for WASH systems putting stresses on existing infrastructure.
The costs of the recovery needs are based on the identified damage and loss caused by the volcanic eruption.

Table 3 shown below summaries those costs along with some of the relevant justifications and actions.
The total needs amount to XCD 1,890,426, with XCD 365,436 required to cover the needs generated by the damage to physical infrastructure40 and XCD 434,990 required to support the continuation of some of the activities related to recurring costs (loss) such as cleaning, testing of water and trucking of water.

Needs amounting to XCD 1,090,000 is required to foster improvements for the WASH sector to improve its overall resilience to disasters in the future.
Also notable is that CWSA has estimated the need for an additional XCD 5,500,000 to support the development of alternative water source to replace the existing Sandy Bay and Owia WSS.

This budget is based on the use of an existing borehole.

This cost is not included in Table 3 since discussions are now underway to concretize the plan.
The recovery needs prioritization matrix shown below grouped the cost of activities and interventions for the water, sanitation and hygiene sector in short, medium and long term.
The short-term WASH needs are primarily related to restoring/repairing the water systems in the red and orange zones, maintaining water quality to acceptable WHO standards through testing and chlorination, the implementation of public education and awareness campaigns and the upgrade the system for the collection, monitoring and management of hydrological and other data on water resources.
40 The recovery cost related to damage includes a suggested increase of 20% to account for all those improvements and modernizations of build back better concept.

It allows increasing the resilience to future catastrophic events.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 127 Table 3.

Recovery Needs Damage (XCD) Loss Justification.

Needs coming from the analysis of effects and impacts.

Needs (XCD) Item Damage Red Zone - Water supply systems Fancy, Owia and Sandy Bay.
Major Damaged to catchment area, Intake structures and pipework.

Still very vulnerable from Lahars during heavy rains Orange Zone - Water supply systems Perseverance, Jen- nings and Hermitage.

Damaged to access roads and a bridge.

241,600 62,930 Repair damage to Fancy, Sandy Bay and Owia Water supply Systems.

Repair access to the affect- ed water treatment plants and rejuvenate damaged upper watershed (forest area).

Loss Red Zone.

Water supply systems Fancy cleaning and ash removal Orange Zone.
Water supply systems Perseverance, Jenning and Hermitage.

Removal of fell trees blocking access to plant and Intake.
Major Ash clean-up operation at plant and intake 72,480 cleaning 26,970 cleaning Loss by trucks delivering water; private and public, hired by and paid for by Various entities 291,140 trucks delivering water continues Cleaning of chemical toilets (portable potties) in shelters 14,400 cleaning Water quality test 30,000 Water quality test continues 289,920 75,516 72,480 26,970 291,140 14,400 30,000 600,000 Increase of resilience Increase the capacity for water trucking/distribution.
Tanker (2 – Leeward and Windward): Improve household water storage capacities and promote awareness of rainwater harvesting technology.

Educational campaigns Improve capacities and knowledge for chemical and bacte- riological water testing.

Support national hygiene education and promotion Develop national plumbing codes Upgrade the system for the collection, monitoring and management of hydrological and other data on water re- sources.
Review and amend legislation regarding water supply and usage Improve local capacities 100,000 Improve local capacities 60,000 Improve local capacities 100,000 Improve local capacities and facilities 150,000 Improve local capacities 80,000 Total 304,530 434,990 1,890,426 Source: WASH Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 128 The medium to long term needs are more related to increase the capacity for water trucking/ distribution, developing/enhancing the necessary legislation, codes and options for testing, storage and treatment of water.
Thus, for short term, the cost of the recovery needs was estimated at XCD 659,080 (excluding the cost of the 5.5 million project), for intermediate actions XCD 551,346 and for long term, XCD 680,000.

As expected, the priority of the intervention (Table 4, column 5) is given to the repair/reconstruction actions and ash removal to the water supply systems located in the red zone, those are Fancy, Sandy Bay and Owia WSS and those located in the orange hazard zone, Perseverance, Jennings and Hermitage WSS.
In addition, CWSA has estimated that in the red zone, 1,380 inhabitants are still offline from water network which increases the priority of intervention in the red zone.

Table 4.

Recovery needs prioritization Short Run* Medium* Long Run * Priority (1 a 5) Comment Cost (XCD) Intervention/Activity Damage Repair damage to Fancy, Sandy Bay and Owia Water supply Systems.
289,920 Repair access to the affected (Perseverance, Jennings and Hermitage) water treatment plants and rejuvenate damaged upper watershed (forest area).

Loss Cleaning and ash removal from Fancy, San- dy Bay and Oiwa WSS.

Water supply systems Perseverance, Jen- ning and Hermitage.

Removal of fell trees blocking access to plant and Intake.
Major Ash clean-up operation at plant and intake Trucks delivering water; private and public, hired by and paid for by Various entities Cleaning of chemical toilets (portable pot- ties) in shelters Water quality test Increase of resilience Increase the capacity for water trucking/ distribution.

Tanker (2 – Leeward and Wind- ward): Improve household water storage capac- ities and promote awareness of rainwater harvesting technology.
Educational cam- paigns 45,310 30,206 72,480 26,970 14,400 30,000 291,140 600,000 100,000 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 red zone 289,920 Orange zone 75,516 Red zone 72,480 Orange zone 26,970 Trucks delivering water continues Shelters Continue with tests 291,140 14,400 30,000 600,000 100,000 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 129 60,000 100,000 150,000 80,000 1,890,426 Improve capacities and knowledge for chemical and bacteriological water testing.
Support national hygiene education and promotion Develop national plumbing codes plus ash concerns Upgrade the system for the collection, monitoring and management of hydrologi- cal and other data on water resources.

Review and amend legislation regarding plumbing, water supply and usage, includ- ing for wastewater reuse.

TOTAL 30,000 30,000 100,000 150,000 80,000 659,080 551,346 680,000 Source WASH Evaluation Team 2 3 2 3 6.

Sources of information, references • (http://www.cwsasvg.com/) • CWSA (2021).
Work notes of the damage and losses in the WASH sector caused by the La Soufrière volcanic eruption.

• PAHO, (2013).

Final Water Safety Plan for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Pan American Health Organization.

• CDEMA (2021).

Detailed Damage Sectoral Analysis (DDSA) Report on the Explosive Eruption of La Soufrière in St. Vincent and Grenadines.

• Work Bank (2021).

La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report PAHO (2021).
SVG WASH Sector Capacity Mapping.

PAHO (2021) SVG WASH Sector Assessment in Public Shelters.

• • • CDB (2013).

Assessment of SVG Water Sector.

7.

Annex WASH sector evaluation team • Marco Audain (CWSA) • Nery Jemes (CWSA) • Saudia Rahat (UNDP) • Diego López (UNICEF) • • Jeannette Fernandez (UNDP-team Leader) José Antonio León, European Union - Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 130 Electricity Sector 1.
Summary La Soufrière 2021 volcanic eruption did not cause significant damage/loss to the electricity sector of the country.

In fact, the effects were very low in comparison to the ones felt in other economic sectors such as as transport, housing or agriculture.

The total cost of disaster effects in this sector was estimated in XCD 1.020 million being the lowest within the whole infrastructure sector and of which, XCD 0.108 million corresponding to damage and XCD 0.911 million specific to loss.
According to VINLEC and the Detailed Damage Sector Assessment (DDSA) report carried out by the Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines and CDEMA, the most relevant damage from the volcanic eruption on the power system was caused by the accumulation of ashes on transmission, distributions lines and other equipment.
The total cost of the damage was mainly due to faults of poles and repairs made in transmission and medium voltage distribution network within the un-evacuated and evacuated area on the island.
In the determination of the loss, under the PDNA methodology, several factors were taken into consideration, including foregone incomes and additional costs generated by the disaster as cleaning, reductions of electricity generation and/ or reductions of electricity sales, fluctuations in the electricity prices, increment of tariffs paid by the customers and reconnections, among others.
At the time of the report, the power network in the red zone is still inaccessible and therefore maintenance personal cannot enter to restore the operation of the network.

Fortunately, most of the relevant power generation stations are not located in the red zone.

The Provision of electric services to 43,525 households was the main effect caused by the eruption.
The event caused an island-wide in blackout of approximately 4 hours, while the North-East of the mainland St. Vincent, the power outage was sustained for almost 2 days affecting more than 9,000 households.

At the time of preparing this report there were around 1,231 households located in the red zone that are still without electricity since April 9th, 2021.
Furthermore, as reported by the housing sector, there are some houses with poor electrical installations highly vulnerable and likely to be damaged by ashfall.

Recovery needs in the electricity sector covers the costs to overcome the identified damage and loss generated by the disaster.

The total recovery needs amount to XCD 1.2 million41 of which, XCD 0.131 million corresponds to needs of repair/re- construction of physical assets and XCD 1.09 mil- lion to cover the loss.
Note that 40 percent of the total recovery needs is associated to the provision of electric services to new developments as some houses in non-mitigable risk sites have to be re- located.

This is the cost estimated to relocate 50 houses.

However, this could range from XCD 0.5 million to XCD 3 million for 50 to 400 houses or more.

The real number of houses will be guided by the housing sector and government authori- ties.
In terms of prioritization and sequencing of recovery needs, the following breakdown has been suggested; XCD 0.344 million as short-run interventions, XCD 0.563 million for the interme- 41 As discussed with VINLEC at report preparation, some of the damages to electricity components related to distribution lines in the north east of Saint Vincent were unable to be estimated given the inaccessibility to certain areas PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 131 diate run and XCD 0.310 million for the long term.
The most urgent interventions will include repair/ reconstruction and ash removal on electrical facil- ities.

The second one relates to repairing the grid in the affected zone as displaced population is moved back to their place of residence.

Electrifica- tion of new development (relocation) sites, recon- nection /Isolation of building and other custom- er services follow the priority order.
Finally, the proposed interventions are based on the build back better principles, and therefore, the sector will seek to establish a resilient robust network to withstand geophysical and climate change haz- ards using the appropriate technology in vege- tation management to protect the network.

The interventions proposed also include the strength- ening of institutional capacities and improving knowledge and procedures with respect to legal contracts with users.
It was suggested the Infrastructure Sector Team Members that some of the recovery needs asso- ciated with improved knowledge and technical capacities in the sector could be incorporated/ overlapped with the ongoing project entitled: “St.

Vincent and the Grenadines: Building Resilience of the Electricity Sector Infrastructure to Geophysical and Climate Related Hazards” managed by the Ca- ribbean Development Bank, CDB.

Figure 1.

Summary of effects and recovery needs Source: Electricity Evaluation Team 2.
Context or Sector Background The Energy Unit and St. Vincent Electricity Services Ltd (VINLEC) are the major entities in the electric energy sector in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Energy Unit arose out of efforts to conserve energy, utilize indigenous resources and transform the 2008 oil crisis into opportunities for the state.
They were charged with assisting the government with formulating and implementing policies related to energy and help coordinate specific renewable energy and energy-efficient projects.

VINLEC is a state-owned registered company charged with the responsibility of generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity throughout the state and operates generation, transmission, and distribution systems on St. Vincent and the Grenadines islands of Bequia, Canouan, Mayreau, and Union Island.
There is however no interconnectivity between the electricity systems on the islands with the volcanic eruption and recent Hurricane Elsa only affecting the electric infrastructure on the island of St. Vincent.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 132 Access to electricity St. Vincent and the Grenadines have a population of approximately 110,000 persons of which ninety eight percent (98%) have access to these electricity networks.
It is sometimes economic prohibitive to supply remote constructions and there are some within reach of the network who can’t consistently or outright afford it.

VINLEC serves a total of 46,000 customers (residential, industrial and commercial customers as per different tariff groups) of which almost 80 percent are located in the green hazard zone, 14 percent in the orange and yellow, and 6% were located in the red zone before the evacuation.
On-grid generation The electricity generation system of St. Vincent and the Grenadines mainly consists of hydro, solar photovoltaic (PV) and diesel power plants.

The installed capacity of generation is dominated by diesel technology, concentrating approximate the 80%.

In the case of hydropower plants, they account for 18% of the capacity of generation while the remaining 2% is covered by solar photovoltaic power plants.
Figure 2 provides an overview of the location of the power stations (generation) with regards to the defined hazard zones of the volcanic eruption.

The Lowmans Bay diesel power plant has the largest production of electricity in St Vincent, producing approximately 82 GWH of energy in 2020 from and installed capacity of 17,400 kW.

This represents 59% of the total island’s production.
The other diesel power plant is located in Cane Hall with an installed capacity of 12,540 kW producing around 23% of the electricity island-wide.

The hydropower plants of South Rivers, Richmond and Cumberland together have an installed generation capacity of 5,650 KW, 900, 1,100 and 3,650 kW respectively; producing 16% of the island’s energy.
Finally, the three PV plants have an installed capacity of 224, 370 and 522 kWp respectively located in the Cane Hall, Lowmans Bay and in the Argyle International Airport.

PV supplies 2% of the island’s energy.

Figure 2.


Geographic distribution of power network and stations in St. Vincent according to the hazard zones (source VINLEC-CDEMA/CARIELC) PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 133 Transmission network Transmission is done at the 33KV voltage level via 8 circuits with lines of a total distance of 50Km connecting Eight (8) substations.
Six of them are located at power stations, the main one is in capital Kingstown and the smallest (8th) feeds a hotel resort at Buccament.

The transmission network is constructed on 50-foot class 2-foot wooden poles with single metal towers at five substations.
Figure 2 shows an overview of the power network, transmission, medium and low voltage distribution with regards to the volcanic hazard zones and Figure 3, panel a, shows a summary of the meters, poles, streetlights, transformers, and stretches belonging to the transmission and distribution network of mainland St. Vincent.

the 19th one feeds the villages north of South Rivers power stations.

Secondary distribution is at the 400 V three-phase and 230 V single phase via 242 miles of a conductor.
There are 1100 distribution transformer points spread across the islands.

The network is constructed on 35 and 45 class 5-, and 3-foot wooden poles respectively for the different voltage levels.

There is one metal tower at South Rivers.

Figure 3, panel b, shows a summary of powerline network belonging to the transmission and distribution network of mainland St. Vincent classified according to the volcano hazard zone.
Table 1 summaries the most important components and facilities conforming the electrical sector of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Distribution Off-grid electricity services Primary distribution is achieved through 53 miles of lines at the 11 kV level with 17 radial feeders imitating from the substations with the possibility of interconnecting them for flexibility.
There is an additional feeder that connects the Richmond hydro station to the Cumberland 3 substation and There is believed to be less than 50 off-grid systems on the islands served by VINLEC.

These would be homes situated in remote areas taking advantage of the reducing cost of PV and micro- wind generation.

The biggest off-grid systems being two resorts on the island of Canouan.

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

Summary of the Transmission and Distribution Network of SVG by Volcanic Hazard zone a Meters, Poles, Streetlights,Transformers & Switches by Volcano Hazard Class Powerline Kilometer by Volcano Hazard Class b 800 600 400 200 0 Meters Poles Streetlights hazard zone Green Yellow Orange Red OH Transmission OH Primary OH Secondary 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 134 Table 1.
Summary of Electrical Facilities in Saint Vincent Type of facilities Electricity Hydropower Plants Solar Plants Diesel Plants 33 KV Transmission (Km) 11 KV Distribution (Km) 400/230 Distribution low voltage line (km) Substation - 33 KV Substation – 11 KV Meters-set Distribution poles 33/11 kV distribution transformer-set 11/0.4 kV distribution transformer-set Source: Electricity Evaluation Number/Longitude Public 3 341 2 50 378 1,363 8 7 44,000 26,000 9 1061 Impact of COVID-19 in the Electricity Sector PPEs and social distancing increase in work hours lost due to persons being sick or while test results were pending.
It generates needs of installation to accommodate sanitization.

of structures Furthermore, reduced productivity caused by people not being able to work in close proximity, work rotation, reduced work hours, delays on project implementation and supplies, trigger concessions/ moratorium to affected customers.

Additionally, there is an impact on demand and payments/receivables due to economic downturn in all sectors.
The pandemic also generates delays in scheduling maintenance work given that it is difficult to take out lines for maintenance because of home schooling and the amount of people working from home.

3.

Assessment of Disaster effects The total effects as a consequence of La Soufriere 2021 volcanic eruption have been relatively low in the electricity sector as compared with those experienced by the transport sector, the most affected infrastructure sector.
The cost of the disaster for the electricity sector is estimated to be XCD 1,020,674.00 being XCD 108,894.00 attributed to damage and XCD 911,780.00 to losses.

42 This includes only the utility-scale power plants.
There is an additional number of grid-connected, customer- PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 135 Damage According to VINLEC and the Detailed Damage Sector Assessment (DDSA) report carried out by the Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines and CDEMA/CARILEC, the most relevant effects from the volcanic eruption on the power system in St. Vincent was caused by the accumulation of ashes on transmission, distributions lines and other equipment.
This ash accumulation combines with moisture forms a conductive layer that can cause short circuits and outages with the most important physical damages on electricity infrastructure being observed in the first days after the volcanic eruption.

Strong ash falls in combination with heavy precipitation during the weekend of April 10 - April 11, 2021 was the most relevant cause of the observed effects.
Several poles, insulator pins, insulators and connection lines were damaged on relevant transmission and medium voltage distribution lines, causing an island-wide outage for several hours.

In certain areas of the island, the outages lasted days and at the time of generating this report there are customers in the red zone without power service.

In case of the Grenadine islands, electricity is mainly generated by individual power networks which, in fact, are not connected to each other.
Fortunately, no damage and electricity outages were reported on the Grenadines.

In the red zone, just the communities located at the north-east coast are connected to the power network through medium and low voltage distribution lines.

As reported by VINLEC, these parts of the power network are currently not in operation, due to damages occurred during the first eruption and to the shortfall of customers from evacuation.
Currently, the power network in the red zone is still inaccessible and maintenance personnel cannot enter to restore the operation of the network.

Fortunately, the majority of the relevant power generation stations are not located in the red zone.

The total cost of the damage caused by the disaster amounts to XCD 108,894.00 mainly due to faults of poles and repair made in transmission and medium voltage distribution system (Table 2) network within the un-evacuated and evacuated area on the island.
VINLEC however replaced/ repaired most of those components by the VINLEC line worker teams within the following 1-2 days after the reporting of the respective incidents.

Table 2 summaries the costs of damages.

Some of the damages to electricity components related to distribution lines in the north east of Saint Vincent were not able to be estimated given the inaccessibility to certain zones.
Losses for The loss component of the Post Disaster Needs Assessment foregone (PDNA) accounts incomes and additional expenses generated by the disaster to the electricity sector.

In this case, it was considered the cost associated to cleaning, reduction of electricity generation and/ or reductions of electricity sales, fluctuations in the electricity prices, increment of tariffs paid by the customers and reconnection between others.
The total loss estimated in the electricity sector is estimated at XCD 911,780.00 with Table 2 summaries the list of losses.

Although the power stations did not suffer physical damage as a consequence of the eruption, the presence of volcanic ashfall in the Power Station (PS) facilities made necessary extra work related to cleaning/clearing of the compound, equipment, owned solar PV power plants under the net-billing mechanism.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 136 headworks, and vegetation.

In addition, it was necessary to pay the salaries to workers which performed all those tasks.

The Richmond and the Lowmans Bay power stations required more work with approximate expenses being XCD 21,021.00 and XCD 26,675.00 respectively.
In order to ensure proper operation of the most power stations after the volcanic eruption, Cumberland PS, South Rivers PS, and Cane Hall PS also required extra work and maintenance interventions.

Thus, the total cost associated with losses in all PS reaches XCD 80,525.00.

Furthermore, it was necessary for the installation of electrical infrastructures to provide electricity to the facility of the WFP located at the old E.T Joshua airport tarmac.
The installation of those facilities implied material, labor and others works had an estimated cost of XCD 34,692.00.

To reduce the impact to the volcanic disaster on the population of most affected zones, 1,068 and 2,762 electrical bill debts of customers were forgiven in the red and orange zones respectively, whose costs amount to XCD 154,000.00 and XCD 376,100.00 respectively.

Although these debts forgiveness alleviate the burden on households, it increases the financing responsibilities of the state.
Other consequence of the disaster was that in some regions, meter readers were unable to work as a result of ashfall due to the volcanic eruption.

In addition, VINLEC also provided food packages and other items for evacuees in shelters with a cost amount to XCD 21,700.00.

The eruption also caused sustained power outages which affected SVG´s households in different scales depending on their location.

Most important outages took place between April 10 and April 15, and even some continuing to this day.
According to VINLEC and CDEMA/CARILEC report, 43,525 customers suffered a power outage for around 4 hours; 9,502 customers for 40 hours and 1,231, located in the red zone, still have no electricity from April 9th, 2021.

Damage to the network increased from the action of Lahars on pole infrastructure in the area and more recently Hurricane Elsa.

The estimated loss in electricity sales to date has reached approximately four million units at XCD 0.77, including fuel surcharge.
Subsequently, the foregone incomes by sales have been estimated as XCD 219,000.00, considering an operating profit margin of 8.42 percent (2020 profit margin).

Increase of electricity tariff: As described in the CDEMA/CARILEC DDSA report, hydropower and solar PV are currently the most cost-efficient types of electricity generation in St. Vincent.
A high share of generation from these technologies contributes to lowering the total cost of electricity generation per delivered kWh and thus to lower the customer tariffs accordingly.

The total generation cost per kWh changed after the volcanic eruptions from XCD 0.44 to XCD 0.48 per kWh, which represents an increase of 9.5%.
The cost composition of the generation costs is quite a dynamic process, that not only depends here on the volcanic eruptions but also on fuel price trends (diesel), availability of water flow and weather conditions (cloud cover).

The mentioned calculation presents only a snapshot of the moment and should be subject to long term monitoring and revision.
Both, hydropower and PV generation have been impacted by the volcanic eruption and the weather events from April 10 to April 12, due to the need for preventive shutdowns (hydropower plants Richmond and Cumberland) and due to the reduced solar radiation caused by ash falls and heavy cloud cover (solar power plants).

The customer tariffs could range between XCD 0.74 to XCD 0.86 including taxation.
Maximum increase of customer tariffs has been estimated by CARILEC up to 8% in the worst future scenario as consequence of the volcanic eruption.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 137 causing lahars which can caused damage to the electrical infrastructure.

In fact, the damage to the T&D network in the north east zone of the St. Vincent has increased.

In addition, the damage to roads and bridges is preventing access to do maintenance/restoration of the power network.
The direct damages and losses suffered by the electricity utility might not be much but the impact and losses to the customers are difficult to quantify especially in this area of home schooling and distance learning, telecommuting social distancing, use of social media, the proliferation of computer technology, cottage industry and considering home refrigerated medication to name a few.
While it may not cost much to reinstate the network it is important to build its resilience to geophysical and climate change hazards to sustain livelihood and ease the human burden during and following an event and also with the ability to bounce back quicker.

Seeing that we serve customers where they are it is important for them to be located outside the direct path of foreseeable tragedy.

and sedimentation Effect in water service.


Most of the water supply system in St. Vincent is gravity fed with surface water, electricity is not needed to assure the transport of the water supply to the population.

Disinfection, filtration processes do not also require a significant amount of electricity.

The water treatment facilities usually have the possibility to provide a minimum level of electricity supply during outages of the power networks through own emergency backup generators.
However, there is a need to assure the water supply in more elevated areas.

In times of low pressure through low discharge rates and limited availability of water, the system does not provide enough pressure to supply these zones.

Therefore, as mentioned in CDEMA/CARILEC DDSA report, the representatives of the Energy Unit recommended investigating the possibility to ensure the supply of elevated storage tanks in such areas with individual solar pumps.

Increased risk - Hurricane Elsa.


The effects of the volcanic eruption have been compounded with the impact of the Hurricane Elsa mainly PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 138 Table 2.
Summary of Damage and Losses Item Damage Primary distribution - broken insulator pin Transmission - Burnt pole structure Primary distribution - Burnt pole structure Primary distribution - burnt pole top Primary distribution - Burnt cross arm Primary distribution - Damaged insulator pin and insulator Primary distribution - Damaged insulator pin and insulator Repair and reenergize damaged sections and components of the network within the un-evacuated area on the island Network repair to return power to critical infrastructure within the evacuated zone.
Losses Richmond PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Cumberland PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers South Rivers PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Lowmans Bay PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Cane Hall PS.
Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Miscellaneous Reconnection /Isolation of building and other customer services issues Reroute, disconnect and Clean-up sections of network in the none return zones installation of the electrical infrastructures to provide electricity to the facility of the WFP located at the old E.T Joshua airport tarmac Debt forgiveness to customers red zone Debt forgiveness to customers orange zone Meter readers were unable to work as a result of ashfall cost associated with food packages and other items for evacuees in shelters Loss of sales revenue (yellow, orange and red zone) -electricity Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Public Private Public Private 922 14,924 3,862 3,158 1,388 684 956 45,000 38,000 21,021 16,834 1,500 26,676 3,500 10,995 10,000 10,000 34,693 153,566 376,134 6,168 21,693 219,000 TOTAL 108,894.00 - 911,780.00 - Source: Electricity Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 139 Linking the effects to the human impact About 43,525 households were directly affected by the volcanic eruption in the form of loss of electricity services.
The event caused an island- wide blackout of approximately 4 hours, while in the North-East of the mainland St. Vincent, the power outage was sustained by almost 2 days affecting more than 9,000 households.

Unfortunately, as reported by VINLEC, there are around 1,231 households located in the red zone that still have no electricity from April 9th, 2021.

Furthermore, the housing sector report notes houses that have poor electrical installations are highly vulnerable to be damaged by ashfall.
Power outages has affected household especially in this aera of home schooling and distance learning, telecommuting social distancing, use of social media, the proliferation of computer technology, cottage industry and considering home refrigerated medication.

Loss of access to electricity has a direct bearing on people’s ability to derive their livelihoods and generate income given that economic activities such as commerce, industrial production, services, etc.

are limited.
are limited.

The volcanic eruption has shown some needs of relocating electrical facilities in certain zones with Recovery Needs and Strategy the current location of some facilities in the red and orange zones making them vulnerable to the population to the effect and impacts of volcanic eruption.

Population living in those zones are more prone to temporary decline and deterioration of livelihoods, employment, and income, temporary increases in poverty.
Increase of electricity tariff could affect all population of SVG.

As pointed out by CARILEC/ CDEMA, Volcanic eruptions can lead a temporal closure of Hydropower and solar PV stations, which currently are the most cost-effective types of electricity generation.
Further reduction of generation from the currently installed hydro and solar power plants may lead to an increase of electricity generation costs up to XCD 0.50 per kWh (13.3% increase) in the future, raising the cost of basic services for SV’s users.

Loss of power can also have a negative impact on women who use electricity for household work and productive activities.
Lighting works as a deterrent to violence, and in the absence of a steady power supply the population, especially women may face an added risk of violence.

In the PDNA methodology, the recovery needs in the electricity sector cover the costs to overcome the identified damages and losses generated by the La Soufriere volcanic eruption as well as the cost of increase the resilience again future hazard events.
The total recovery needs amount to XCD 1.216 million of which, XCD 0.130 million corresponds to needs of repair/reconstruction of physical assets and XCD 1.086 million to account the losses for cleaning of equipment, headworks, salaries to workers and reconnections, as well as actions in favour of the DRR and the build back better concept.
The recovery cost related to damage includes a suggested increase of 20% to account for improvements and modernizations with Table 3 presenting in detail the most relevant needs in the electricity sector.

Note in table 3 that debts forgiveness to customers and loss in sales revenue are not part of the recovery needs budget given that they are lost incomes and not PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 140 costs to cover.
It is important to mention that the electrification of new development as houses located in non-mitigable risk sites is the recovery needs which encompasses more that 40 percent of the total recovery cost.

Table 3.

Recovery Needs Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Justification.
Needs Needs (XCD) Item Damage Transmission and distribution network: broken pole, insulator and insulator pin Repair and reenergize damaged sections and components of the network within the un- evacuated area on the island Network repair to return power to critical infrastructure within the evacuated zone.

25,894 45,000 38,000 Losses Richmond PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Cumberland PS.
Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers South Rivers PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Lowmans Bay PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Cane Hall PS.

Cleaning, clearing of the compounds, equipment, headworks, salaries to workers Miscellaneous Preparation of grid in affected zone for the return of residence.
Energize areas as satisfactory conditions permit Reconnection /Isolation of building and other customer services issues Reroute, disconnect and Clean-up sections of network in the none return zones installation of the electrical infrastructures to provide electricity to the facility of the WFP located at the old E.T Joshua airport tarmac repair/change w/ improvements Repair w/improvements Repair w/improvements cleaning cleaning cleaning cleaning cleaning reconnection reroute/clean-up installation 21,021 16,834 1,500 26,676 3,500 10,995 38,000 80,000 20,000 20,000 34,693 31,073 54,000 45,600 21,021 16,834 1,500 26,676 3,500 10,995 38,000 80,000 20,000 20,000 34,693 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Meter readers were unable to work as a result of ashfall Cost associated with food packages and other items for evacuees in shelters Improvements, more resilience and built back better Electrification of new development (relocation) site Procure appropriate equipment to wash Electric lines and substation Apply appropriate technology to vegetation management plan to protect network Strengthen institutional knowledge and procedures on pole loading calculations Strengthen legal contracts with joint pole users PAGE 141 6,168 21,693 repair 6,168 21,693 Estimate for relocation of fifty houses.
Number of houses might be more depending housing sector and governmental authorities 500,000 5,000 160,000 80,000 Reduce the vulnerabilities of the network 40,000 1,216,753.00 TOTAL 108,894.00 301,080.00 Source: Electricity Evaluation Team The recovery needs prioritization matrix shown below (Table 4) grouped the cost of activities and interventions for the electricity sector in short, medium and long term.
Thus, for short term, the cost of the recovery needs was estimated as XCD 343,750.00; for intermediate actions XCD 563,000.00 and for long term, XCD 310,000.00.

According to the defined priorities, as expected, the first interventions to undertake are related to repair/reconstruction actions and ash removal on electrical facilities.

The second ones relate to repairing the affected grid in preparing for the return of residence.
The electrification of new development (relocation) site, reconnection / Isolation of building and other customer services follow in the priority order.

Finally, the last actions to execute seek to provide a resilient robust network against geophysical and climate change hazards by means of the application of appropriate technology to vegetation management plan to protect the network, strengthen the institutional knowledge, procedures and the legal contracts with users.
As part of this resilient network, it is proposed that for the long term to use mini grids and underground lines to provide a much better protection again volcanic eruption and in general to natural disasters.

(EU is funding a similar activity in Dominica for better resilience to hurricanes).
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0 0 3 5 7 3 4 3 , m a e T n o i t a u l a v E y t i c i r t c e l E : PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports to the Complementary needs prioritization matrix, VINLEC provided a list of activities to execute as a guideline of the recovery strategies.
recovery Short-term To address immediate safety concerns and the needs of customers and Vincentians: • • Repair damages and restore power to the network (In response to tracking, burnt pole hardware and effects of vegetation).

the un-evacuated zone.
in infrastructures to Install critical electrical support relief efforts and people livelihood example: assist in electrifying Arnos Vale World Food Program relief hub • • Business continuity • Cover critical equipment from ash and Install filters on air aspirated equipment • Clean up ash at work sites; offices and power stations • Resume hydro generation at sites located on the fringes of the evacuated areas • Reinstate power to critical infrastructure in the red zone, example: • Communication towers • Seismic monitoring stations • Police stations • Fix faults on the network in readiness for the return of the villagers.
Assistance is been received from NEMO (safety advice), the Government Electrical inspectorate office (property connection safety) and the agency with responsibility for roads (BRAGSA) for access.

PAGE 144 • To fulfill corporate responsibility: • Moratorium on billing to persons in the evacuated areas, • Relief packages to evacuees in the early days of the dislocation.

• Assistance to aid in the repair of damaged electrical circuits of homes in the red zone.
Medium-term To cater for the electrical needs of people in the red zone and refocus on the maintenance necessary to limit damage to the electrical infrastructure.

Rethink /adjust network design to protect electrical infrastructure that might be in the path of disruptive flows linked to the volcanic eruptions.

The involvement of VINLEC will be impacted by the extent to which affected villages are resettled.
Should the area be resettled, the focus could involve: • • Knowledge of no or limited settlement zones, designing networks around the buildings that are permitted.

Salvaging and cleanup of unwanted electrical network infrastructure.

If the wholes village is relocated, then: • line extension designs would be done in the medium term to electrify the buildings that would be at the new location.
• Observe vegetation growth along the line routes and manage their growth to limit the possibility of them shorting lines and causing outages when inundated with ash, wind or and rain.

• Procure specialized equipment to aid the washing of outdoors substation PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 145 Long-term • • To have a resilient robust network against geophysical and climate change hazards.
Proper location, design and construction and adhering to established standards while expanding the network in the future would be important.

• Expand network to electrify the new housing area if the decision is made to relocate affected sections of the society.

To have an effective monitoring and maintenance program in place that ensures the continued reliability of the network (its readiness to withstand the ravishes of these natural disasters).
• Use GIS and computer technology to develop, model, track and control vegetation growth so that the weight of ash and the effects of weather cannot use them to down power lines and cause outages.

This would be more effective than patrol and priority maintenance schedule.
Improve contracts to encourages joint pole users to take responsibility for maintaining the network standards or bear the cost to have it done (pole loading, vegetation growth and sagging in the path of Traffic) Enhance modeling and design of the network nodes and review of network standards.

• • • Promote community awareness of safety standards and disaster risk reduction and build a culture of resilience at the community level.

• CDEMA (2021).
• CDEMA (2021).

Detailed Damage Sectoral Analysis (DDSA) Report on the Explosive Eruption of La Soufrière in St. Vincent and Grenadines.

• Work Bank (2021).

LA SOUFRIÈRE VOLCANIC ERUPTION, ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

GLOBAL RAPID POST DISASTER DAMAGE ESTIMATION (GRADE) REPORT.

Sources of information, references Half a page • • • https://www.vinlec.com/ VINLEC (2021).

Work notes of the damage and losses in the electricity sector caused by the La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption.

VINLEC (2021).
VINLEC (2021).

Work notes of the composition of the electricity networks of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Annex Electricity sector evaluation team • • • • • • Ricky Wright (VINLEC) Earlan Myers (VINLEC) Thomas Mitschke (CARILEC) Ken Aldonza (CDB) Jeannette Fernandez (UNDP) José Antonio León, European Union - Facilitator PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 146 PAGE 146 PAGE 146 Cross- Cutting Sectors PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 147 Disaster Risk Reduction 1.
Summary St. Vincent and the Grenadines is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural hazards in the Eastern Caribbean.

The country was classified by the World Bank in 2006 as among the top five most vulnerable countries to disasters, as it is susceptible to hurricanes, flooding, landslides, drought, earthquakes (both tectonic and volcanic), tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.

In addition to the island’s topography, damaged infrastructure has been a key challenge to reducing vulnerability to disasters.
While natural hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) considerations have been incorporated infrastructure design and construction, these are mainly at the infancy stage.

into An assessment of the impact on the volcano on the sectors was undertaken under the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) lens using four themes: 1) Coordination; 2) Resilient Pathways 3) Early Warning Systems and 4) Evacuation.
A key observation is that the initial effusive eruption phase of the volcano provided sufficient time for national authorities to heighten public education and messaging on the potential scenarios for the volcano as well as update national plans.
Recovery needs in the sector were estimated based on the analysis of the damage and loss identified under the productive, social and infrastructure sectors with the concept of building back better being applied to counteract not only the damage caused by the volcanic ash fall but also to build resilience against any future catastrophic events.

Total recovery needs equates to XCD 2.3 million represented by XCD 0.231 million in the short term and XCD 2.144 million in the intermediate period.
In the short term recovery needs are tied to the national DRR plan update based on lessons learnt from the volcanic event and the continued maintenance of the seismic monitoring network.

In the intermediate term, recovery needs includes updated risk and vulnerability assessments, DRM legislative review, training, and enhancing the information and EWS network on the island.
The cost related to enhancing of the information and EWS network on the island represents 82% of the overall recovery needs identified.

Based on data available at the time of report development cost estimates are included for only some of the proposed recovery interventions.

Total recovery needs under the sector are likely to be higher once full estimates are provided.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Table 1: Recovery Needs Short (XCD) Intermediate (XCD) Long Term (XCD) TOTAL XCD 231,166.52 2,144,098.51 Source: DRR Evaluation Team PAGE 148 Total (XCD) 2,375,265.03 2.

Context or Sector Background Extreme weather events such as tropical storms, and in particular hurricanes, have been responsible for much of the disaster-related devastation that has occurred in St Vincent and the Grenadines.
SVG has been affected by 14 hurricanes and storms between 1900 and 2013.

La Soufriere, the active volcano on mainland St. Vincent, occupies much of the island’s northern end; it is 1,234 metres high and has an open summit crater 1.6 km in diameter.

Soufriere has recorded eruptions in recent history in 1718, 1812, 1902, 1971 and 1979.

It is considered a relatively young volcano, and likely to erupt in the future with either effusive or violent explosive eruptions.
A volcanic hazard zone map has been previously created dividing the island into four distinct zones represented by: • Zone 1 (Red) – Very high hazard risk • Zone 2 (Orange) – High hazard risk • Zone 3 (Yellow) – Moderate hazard risk • Zone 4 (Green) – Low hazard risk Coordination and Resilient Pathways The National and Disaster Emergency Management Act Chapter 388 of the Laws of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (Act No.

15 of 2006) and the Emergency Powers Act No.


45 of 1970 form the legislative basis for disaster risk management programmes and activities within all levels of Government in SVG.
One of the key structures outlined in the National Emergency and Disaster Management Act is the establishment of the NEMO, which consists of the 1) National Emergency Council – Chaired by the Prime Minister and is composed of Ministers, permanent secretaries, district representatives and key ex-officio members from government agencies, corporations, businesses and non- governmental organizations 2) National Emergency Executive Committee - is responsible for developing a strategic Policy Framework and monitors its progress and provides the technical implementation supervision required on behalf of the national council 3) NEMO Secretariat – Operationalisation of the Act 4) National Emergency Operations Centre - The NEOC is to function as the headquarters for activities undertaken in response to a disaster, and establishes and maintains supplementary Emergency Operations Centres (EOCs) 5) District/Local Management Disaster Committees - function at the local level and operate to implement planning and disaster response operations respective districts.
their in Additionally, the National Volcano Emergency Plan (updated February 2021), the National Emergency Management Operations Centre Multi-Hazard PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports Standard Operating Procedures (updated April 2021) provides an updated planning instrument for coordination of the emergency events.
SVG as a CARICOM member state and a Participating State of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency (CDEMA) embraces a Management Agency Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) approach in the implementation of the disaster risk management (DRM) agenda.

CDM recognizes the critical link between disaster management and sustainable development and the need for critical consideration of DRM in development planning and decision-making processes.
The CDM BluePrint is being advanced in SVG with the development of the CDM Policy and the CDM Legislation.

The national disaster management policy is congruent with the disaster legislation and provides relevant Ministers with sufficient authority to lead the sector to CDM.
The CDM Audit which provides an assessment of the progress in country against CDM standards in mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery was applied in 2018 with a Country Work Programme (CWP) for the period 2020-2024 using a RBM approach currently being finalized.

PAGE 149 As a CARICOM Member State, SVG is only in the initial stages of the implementation of the Resilience Pathway to the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy 2014 – 2024 agreed by the Caribbean Community in 2018.
The framework focuses on five (5) pillars of Resilience which are (I) Social Protection for the Marginal and Most Vulnerable, (II) Enhancing Economic Opportunity (III) Safeguarding Infrastructure (IV) Environmental Protection (V) Operational Readiness and Recovery.
Early Warning Systems Services to enhance is In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, there widespread acknowledgement of the need for a people centered end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning System to provide timely alerts to the population given the vulnerability/exposure of the island to multiple hazards.
NEMO has worked closely with the St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Meteorological disseminate early warning information for hazard events using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), since 2017, to complement warning messages disseminated via traditional and social media.
In 2018 Sustainability dialogues and Interventions for Institutionalizing and Advancing Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (EWS) in St Vincent and the Grenadines were convened to provide the forum to examine opportunities and interventions on early warning and concrete actions to strengthen multi hazard early warning systems on the island.
Presently, monitoring of the La Soufrière volcano is carried out by the Seismic Research Centre (SRC) of the University of the West Indies based in Trinidad and Tobago assisted by the Soufrière Monitoring Unit of NEMO.
The monitoring network before the volcanic eruption consisted of seven seismic and two GPS stations and noting the heightened activity from the Volcano since December 2020 the SRC deployed personnel to install the additional equipment and provide on PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 150 the ground monitoring and advice to national authorities.

This team was still in SVG at the time of the eruption.
Evacuation Management A volcano evacuation plan for the La Soufrière is articulated in the National Disaster Response Plan for 2005 with the primary purpose of preventing the loss of life from a disruption.

The National Volcano Plan was updated as the National Volcano Emergency Plan of 2014; was tested in 2019 during the TradeWinds Exercise and updated, with support from CDEMA; and approved by Cabinet in March 2021.
This plan seeks to provide for the safe evacuation of the population (and specified property) from the designated areas at risk in a phased or spontaneous operation in the event that La Soufrière Volcano should threaten communities in these areas as well as provides an organizational framework upon which actions to be taken during a volcanic emergency can be based by the respective agencies 3.
Assessment of Disaster Effects Coordination Coordination through the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) for the event was satisfactory with evidence of adequate strategic the governance leadership and built on arrangements provided in the legislation.

Support was also provided through CARICOM Operational Support Team (COST) of four (4) persons deployed over a period of 3.5 months Nonetheless, spaces for identified which include43: improvement were i.
Improved congruence between the National Emergency Executive Committee (NEEC) and day to day reporting lines; ii.

Ensuring that the Executive level of the NEOC structure is activated through the National Emergency Executive Committee to facilitate improved information flow between the policy and operational levels of the NEOC (DDSA report); iii.
Improved integration of NGO, private sector 43 Detailed Damage Sectoral Assessment 2021 entities and international actors within the NEOC subcommittee structure of the coordination Moreover, volcanic emergency response was undertaken in a multi- hazard environment - during the global COVID-19 pandemic and a subsequent rainfall event.

The complexity of coordination of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously with cumulative and cascading impacts, for a prolonged duration cannot be ignored.
Material deposited on the flanks of the volcano which can be remobilised by heavy rainfall producing lahars now poses and ongoing threat over the next few years.

Additionally the COVID-19 pandemic required adjusted protocols and procedures for EOC and shelter management due to social distancing measures.
Coordination arrangements has also focussed significantly on shelter management with thirty-three (33) shelters housing one thousand, four hundred and eight-three (1,483) persons still being managed as at the 13th August 2021.
Providing safe shelter for the persons displaced by the volcanic emergency during the hurricane season remains a priority and thus limits the options for providing hurricane PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 151 shelter for other vulnerable members of the general population on mainland St. Vincent.

Resilient Pathways Relief Distribution This focused on an end-to-end relief management system and was generally satisfactory.
However the influx of supplies overwhelmed the port system and challenges were noted in the coordination of movement of supplies and loopholes which could create accountability challenges.

Some areas will therefore need attention during the prolonged period.

The Arnos Vale Logistics Hub was considered a good practice for sorting, organizing, storing, coordinating and transporting relief supplies destined to shelters or beneficiaries throughout St. Vincent.
The CDEMA Logistics System (CLS) software was live tested and enhanced through this emergency event.

Support was provided by the CARICOM Disaster Relief Unit (CDRU) deployed for a period of six (6) weeks working in collaboration with the World Food Programme with the financial support of USAID.

Information Management Information Management in the NEOC guided by plans and procedures was satisfactory with public information facilitated by the assignment of a lead within the NEOC.
The prolonged duration of the emergency quickly highlighted some challenges including the availability of adequate human resources and the tedium of operating a manual information management system, which led to delays in access to and processing information for NEOC briefings, decision-making, public information and situation reports.
Lack of IT equipment, access to data over IT networks and inconsistency in data for shelterees for example, resulted in challenges in information flow and management With reference to the CDM BluePrint, efforts to finalise the Country Work Programme process in keeping with the established criteria was derailed by the response efforts but also reinforced the need to advance the resilience agenda in keeping with resilience framework.
Early Warning Systems With regard to early warning system performance, the onset of the eruption was predicted thanks to the upgraded seismic monitoring system and analysis by the scientist according to established protocols.
The effusive nature of the eruption from December 2020 allowed sufficient time for the installation of necessary additional seismic monitoring equipment with warning information being shared by NEMO which provided residents information and tourists with the necessary informed (assembly points etc) decisions; which could save lives and properties.

The information was relayed through the cap system, the NEMO Facebook page and API.
At the community level NEMO convened a series of meetings with residents in the areas most likely to be affected, to update on the present situation and outline the official sources of warning information.
to make Warning information for subsequent eruptions from the volcano was also shared using the EWS with this being further bolstered through a daily radio programme convened with the lead scientist Prime Minister and the SRC outlining scenarios, warning information and more importantly what persons can expect from the volcano.
It was mentioned that there is no feedback mechanism to measure the effectiveness of the warning messages disseminated at the time of writing the report, although it must be noted that the island has reported no deaths due to the volcanic eruption to date.

While the population PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 152 assembly areas and those needed were provided with vehicle support offered by the government for land and sea evacuation.
Some persons however, fearing that their personal possessions may be stolen once they left, did not evacuate immediately and only accepted the need to evacuate following the explosive volcano eruption revealing low risk perception based on previous experiences.

Sea evacuation was also possible on the Leeward side of the island and as identified in the plans, this element was led well by the SVG Coast Guard.
It was also reported that some persons believed the government offered transportation would be readily available once they reached the designated assembly area even though it was advised by NEMO that the transportation will be mobilized a minimum of 2 to 3 hours after the evacuation order, revealing a gap in communication and contributing to some frustration of individuals.

While there were no deaths recorded directly related to the eruption and evacuation, some transportation injuries did occur.
that reduces susceptibility (increased liability to additional harm) to the impact of the same hazard.

In the context of the pillars of resilience identified, it is recognised that: Social Protection for the Marginal and Most Vulnerable Within St. Vincent and the Grenadines, a number of social protection schemes already exists.
It is acknowledged that hazards often disproportionately affect the most vulnerable persons but also those who are on the margins of poverty as one shock can push this segment of the population below the poverty-line.
Social protection schemes should identify and support received early warning of the impending explosive eruption, the mode of disseminating warning information to the most vulnerable including those differently-abled revealed some gaps which affected response times Evacuation activity volcanic Heightened prompted evacuations of persons from communities in the Red and Orange zones on mainland St. Vincent prior to the commencement of the explosive eruptions.
The official evacuation order was received at 4pm on 8 April 2021 and commenced a mass evacuation from communities in the northeast and northwest of the island from the hazardous zones (red and orange) to public and private dwellings in safer zones located in the south of the country.

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) indicates that close to 20,000 persons were evacuated.

When advised to evacuate residents in the Red and Orange zones gathered at predesignated 4.
Recovery Needs and Strategy The critical link between disaster management and sustainable development is recognised as a holistic approach to managing multiple risks from all hazards, this is necessary to achieve resilient development.
DRR ought to be a critical component of development planning, as well as sectoral strategies, programmes and work plans and although the damage and losses in some sectors are more visible than others, the recent increasing scale and frequency of hazards in the region has further shown that all sectors should develop an effective approach to reducing disaster risk and BBB in the post disaster recovery realm.
For the Caribbean, resilience also connotes being able to bounce forward quickly in a manner PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 153 these segments of the population during recovery and encourage livelihood restoration including for those in the agricultural sector which have been significantly affected.
Safeguarding infrastructure Critical Infrastructure such as roads, bridges and housing in the affected habitable areas will have to consider standards of safety in design criteria to address the volcanic hazard and associated risks.

This will need careful consideration for implementation in the recovery programme.

Operational Readiness and Recovery Operational readiness and recovery will be dependent on the level of resourcing of the system.
Many of the operational readiness actions are treated under coordination which whilst adequate highlighted areas to be strengthened at the planning and operational level.

Particular attention is required for information management.

As it relates to recovery there will be a need to advance the Recovery Capacity Assessment, accelerate the National Recovery Framework to guide recovery actions and strengthen the institutional mechanisms to advance recovery which is being offered through CDEMA.
Expertise to support recovery can be accessed through the soon to be launched Caribbean Resilient Recovery Facility (CRRF).
Coordination plans for volcanoes, hurricane, landslide and flood hazards exists in recognition of the multiple hazards which can impact St. Vincent and the Grenadines, however the complexity associated with the simultaneous and dynamic nature of the interaction, the prolonged impact and the uncertainty will require refinement of coordination arrangements which would have been predicated on the traditionally accepted hazard by hazard approach.
The provision of psychosocial support at all levels is important as socio-economic impacts during a complexed, prolonged emergency coupled with uncertainty can have profound psychological distress and will need to be addressed.

Ultimately it is recognized that recovery is not just infrastructural, but has intense emotional and social dimensions that must be treated in recognition that the event is still ongoing and potential future hazard impacts can be linked to the volcanic eruption.
The complexity of this event with cumulative and cascading impacts, is evidence of systemic risks and as such both the governance and operational environment should reflect this.

Based on data available at the time of report development cost estimates are included for only some of the proposed recovery interventions.

Total recovery needs under the sector are likely to be higher once full estimates are provided.
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i ( y t i r o i r p y r e v o c e r s r o t a c i d n i – X d e fi : e c r u o S PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 156 Sources of information, references Half a page 1.

Building a Caribbean Pathway to Resilience - 2018 2.
CDM Audit Report 2018 3.

Comprehensive Disaster Strategy Management 4.

Detailed Damage Sectoral Assessment – 2021 5. International Disaster Response Law in St. 7.

National Emergency Act - 2006 8.

National Disaster Response Plan - 2005 9.

National Volcano Emergency Plan – 2014 10.

Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment - 2014 11.

Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Strategy and Results Framework https:// www.cdema.org/CDM_Strategy_2014-2024.

pdf Vincent and the Grenadines – 2017 12.


St. Vincent and the Grenadines Disaster Risk 6.

Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Report for Reduction profile - 2014 St. Vincent and the Grenadines – 2018 13.
SVG National CDM policy April 2014 Annex Volcanic Hazard Map St. Vincent and the Grenadines Disaster Risk Reduction evaluation team · Michelle Forbes - Director NEMO · Kenson Stoddard - Deputy Director NEMO · Andria Grosvenor - CDEMA · Paul Saunders - CDB · Marlon Clarke - UNDP PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 157 Environment Sector Pre-Disaster Baseline Forests cover about 25-30% of St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ total land area.
This includes the Montane Rainforest, Coastal Dry-woodlands, Littoral Forest and the Elfin Woodlands forest types.

Some of these forests are important to timber production, including high-value species such as the Blue Mahoe and Mahogany.

They also provide important ecosystem services such as livelihoods or supplementary income to households; capture and supply of water for drinking, irrigation and hydroelectricity; and attraction for eco-tourism activities.
the Grenadines has St. Vincent and rich biodiversity with multiple endemics.

There are 1,523 species listed on the IUCN Red List for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Another 97 species are of great concern with one (1) extinct, 7 critically endangered, 14 endangered, 43 vulnerable, and 33 near threatened44.
Of the 21 critically endangered and endangered species, five are endemic to St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Chironius vincenti, Gonatodes daudini, Pristimantis shrevei, Catharopeza ishop and Amerotyphlops tasymicris.

Both Pristimantis shrevei and Catharopeza bishopiare recorded as having declining populations.

There are 17 recreational sites managed by the National Parks Rivers and Beaches Authority.
Six of these sites (Dark View Falls, La Soufriere Bamboo Range Trail Head and Trail, Owia Salt Pond Recreational Park, Falls of Baleine, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail45) are located within the red and orange high-risk zones.

Surface water is the major source of potable water and water for irrigation and industrial supplies.

Average annual rainfall on the main island, St. Vincent, has so far been sufficient to meet local requirements (100m m3/year).
Mining and quarrying sector plays an important role in the country’s overall development as these resources are vital inputs in the construction sector in the form of sand, aggregates and rocks.

Boulders are mined at several points across the country; aggregate and sand mined at Rabacca and Richmond.

Land has traditionally been a major resource for development in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Major include agriculture, mining (quarrying) and construction (housing and tourism development).
These activities coupled land use activities 44 45 St. Vincent and the Grenadines Revised Second NBSAP, 2016 Note that the Falls of Baleine, Trinity Falls and Cumberland Nature Trail have been closed to visitors for about 5 years due to environmental hazards such as landslides and rock falls.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 158 • • Some policies are outdated and there are many draft policies and regulations which are yet to be adopted There is lack of citizen awareness about the environment • Application environmental assessment tools is currently limited of impact • Poor engagement of the private sector and civil society in environmental governance The major environmental resource and impact of the volcanic eruption is presented in the table below.
with population demands on the limited land that is available.

increase have placed great Environmental Governance issues • There is a broad suite of environmental policies and legislations, but enforcement is weak due to limited human and financial resources.
• There is poor land-use planning • Marine spatial planning just underway • Institutional fragmentation and overlapping mandates hampers policy implementation Major Environmental Resource and Volcanic Impact Natural Resource Coverage Contribution to GDP (%) Contribution to Labour Force (%) Volcanic Impact Damage or Loss Water 97% of population served by CWSA.
100m m3 /year Fisheries 36,000 km2 (EEZ) Agriculture 7,200 ha Real Estate Hotel/Restaurant Mining Protected areas & Parks Forests and Biodiversity 35 existing legally designated sites 1.0 0.6 6.5 2.0 2.2 0.2 1.2 80%< supply loss during eruption Fisheries and Agriculture 15.1 Richmond and Wallibou seine hauling sites destroyed 0.1 7.9 0.3 (see agriculture sector) Damage to homes, loss of access to lands Business closure and infrastructural damage Aggregate mining sites at Richmond and Rabacca damaged Damage to facilities and loss of trails, signage, etc.
Destruction of approximately 23,000 acres of forest Source - Cross Cutting PDNA Evaluation Team PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 159 2.

Disaster Effects 2.1 Damage to Environmental Resources The total effects of the eruption of La Soufrière on the Environment Sector are still to be fully assessed.
Because of its cross-cutting nature, elements of the environment such as forest, fisheries and soil have been captured under the Agriculture Sector while water resources were captured under the WASH Sectors.

Elements of great significance but less ventilated include Biodiversity, Protected Areas and their supporting structures (habitats and ecosystems), Soil, Air quality, and Ecosystems Goods and Services are the main focus of this section of the report.
Cost relating to damage or loss for these elements are only mentioned in qualitative terms because of the absence of baseline values and the absence of proven quantitively approaches.

Many of these are informal but significant economic streams for rural people, they are not capture in the national economic assessment but their loss result in great economic hardship.
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Sector Recovery Strategy 3.1 Reconstruction Recovery Needs For many environmental elements (soil, air quality, forest, marine and aquatic habitats) recovery is largely left to nature, however, human intervention can accelerate or hinder this process.

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This will help to further quantify the loss resulting from the eruption.

One recovery strategy for areas in the red zone is leaning towards turning previously farmed areas into conservation areas.
This requires new governance structures/policies and finances to relocate, retrain, and equip persons who farmed in those areas for life elsewhere.
The damages due to the possible increase in soil erosion (and decrease in water retention) in agricultural land are NOT accounted for; additional cost for strengthening soil conservation, removal of ash and additional water conservation measures by keeping the ash on the land needs to be factored into the estimates and addressed in the reconstruction methodology.
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m a e T n o i t a u l a v E t n e m n o r i v n E PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 165 PAGE 165 PAGE 165 Impact Assessment PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 166 Human Impact Assessment Summary The Human Impact analysis of the effects of the la Soufrière Volcanic eruption suggests a number of areas for concern.
Among those are the loss of income and resulting possible increases in income poverty; the loss of access to the backyard economy and the increase in food insecurity; the invisible yet present psychosocial trauma suffered by the population at large.

Poor women who are heads of households will be particularly affected and so too their families, thereby exacerbating the structural inequalities and persistence of intergenerational poverty.
The government has in place an established social protection programme which could benefit from enhanced co-ordination and streamlining for greater efficiency and effectiveness.

It needs to be repurposed to serve as a tool for social transformation not just as a safety net.

The population needs capacity-building at all levels, to better enable them to participate in and contribute to the building of a more resilient society.
Context Prior to the eruption of the La Soufrière volcano, the people of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) had been coping with the health and socio-economic issues arising from the COVID-19 pandemic46 and the dengue outbreak during which 1,000 persons were affected and resulted in the loss of eight lives.

The outbreak demanded additional human and financial resources to control.

Table 1.
Selected social Indicators Poor (2007/8) Vulnerable (2007/8) Indigent (2007/8) Gini Coefficient (2007/8) GDP per capita USD (2019) HDI (2019) 30.2 % 48.2 % 2.9 % 0.4 7,457.51 0.738 Source: Poor, Vulnerable, indigent, Gini Coefficient, https:// www.caribank.org/sites/default/files/publication-resources/ Study_The-Changing-Nature-of-Poverty-and-Inequality-in- the-Caribbean-New-Issues_-New-Solutions.pdf; GDP per capita- World Bank; HDI - http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/ themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/VCT.pdf As if these two hazards were not sufficient, the population was burdened by the effects of tropical Storm Elsa in early July which contributed to the formation of the lahars from the ash, making life even more difficult.
Vincentians, however, have the reputation across the region for being a hardy sea fearing people.

Their resilience has certainly been tested this time around.

According to the last Country Poverty Assessment, in 2007/2008, approximately 30 undertaken percent (%) of the population was categorized as poor and a small proportion, some 3 % experience indigence (see table 1 of selected social indicators).
A worrisome proportion of the 46 From February 2020 to July 2021 St Vincent and the Grenadines reported 2,307 cases and 12 deaths PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 167 population, 48 % are defined as vulnerable and 52 % of poorer households are mostly headed by women.

Women-headed households account for approximately 39 % of all households47.
Available data, points to high levels of income inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.40, though this is lower than in the previous decade when it was estimated at 0.56 (UNDP, 2010).

Disasters always affect the poor more harshly than the non-poor, as the poor usually have less capacity to withstand the impacts, and once a disaster occurs, less resources to act as a buffer until such time as they are able to recover following an event.
Despite these challenges, SVG can boast of a medium to high Human Development Index, ranking 97 out of 189 countries in 2019.

According to the UNDP HDI note on construction of the Index, “between 1990 and 2019, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ life expectancy at birth increased by 2.0 years, mean years of schooling increased by 1.2 years and expected years of schooling increased by 2.1 years.
The country’s GNI per capita increased by about 96.2 percent between 1990 and 2019”.48 Effects Of the 109, 188 persons who account for the population of SVG, females comprise some 49 % and males 51 %, respectively49.
According to data from The Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment, coordinated by Ministry of National Mobilization (MoNM) in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP), some 21 % of the population or 23,032 persons were evacuated from the red and orange zone, as a result of the eruption of La Soufriere volcano (See table 2).

The NEMO was pleased to report that there were no deaths or injuries as a direct result of the eruption50.
It should be noted however, that the entire population has been affected by the eruption: either through damage suffered to their homes, shortages of water supply, through interruptions of power supply, or loss of livelihoods, or food insecurity resulting from the loss of backyard gardens.51 Less visible but no less significant is the psychosocial trauma suffered by large segments of the population which may linger over an extended period of time.52 Table 2.
Evacuated Individuals Total population Evacuated individuals 109,188 23,032 10,671 12,361 7,756 Total Males Females Children Source: The Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment Survey Of Those evacuated households, some 77% indicated that they were in private residences with friends.
Accommodation centres/shelters were set up under the MoNM relatives or 47 St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Population and Housing Census 2012 48 http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/VCT.pdf 49 St Vincent and the Grenadines 2012 Population and Housing Census, Preliminary Report 50 DDSA SVG_ Soufriere_ REPORT Jun 2021 51 PDNA Sector reports provide details of the disruption in access to good and services as a result of the eruption of the la Soufriere volcano.
52 DDSA SVG_ Soufriere_ REPORT Jun 2021 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 168 to accommodate persons who were displaced and were not accommodated in private homes withNEMO having overarching responsibility for those persons who were placed in public shelters.

Figure 1 illustrates the distribution of evacuated households as a result of the volcanic eruption.

Some 19,390 individuals were relocated to private residences.
Twenty percent or 4,606 individuals stayed in Government shelters, 2 % or 460 persons stayed in hotels and 1 % or 230 persons, stayed within informal shelters.

Through the MoNM some 22,033 Food Packages were distributed to displaced families in private homes.

It should be noted that some 2,817 families or 9,426 individuals from the orange zone, were able to return home after the All Clear was issued by Government.
Figure 1: Current residence of the evacuated households Private residence with relatives/friends or other 77% Government shelter 20 % Hotel 2 % Informal shelter 1 % Source: The Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment Survey Gender Relations and Gender-Based Violence In disasters, all vulnerable groups such as the elderly, LGBTQI+, persons living with HIV/AIDS are at risk for Gender-Based Violence (GBV).
However, women and girls were more at risk to GBV as a result of the La Soufrière volcanic eruption.

There were several reported cases of GBV within the shelters during the months April to July and in all cases, women were the victims.53 Survivors of GBV to a greater extent, victims of domestic violence were at risk of increased violence due to tensions arising from displacement, trauma, lack of finance and/or unemployment and grief and loss.
Given societal pressures on men to be providers and protectors, their inability to fulfill either role, compounded their difficulty in adjusting to the conditions.

It was reported that 80 percent of the shelters are not registering, and 29 percent are not registering single women and girls.

A GBV safety audit was conducted by the Gender Affairs Division in collaboration with UNFPA that indicated the prevalence of GBV within the shelters.
Figure 2 illustrates and highlights issues arising from the audit regarding gender relations and GBV.

53 Gender Affairs Division PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 169 Figure 2: Issues of Gender Relations and GBV Source:.

Gender Affairs Division Employment Livelihoods and Social Protection Displacement was not the only effect.

Loss of employment and livelihoods was also a significant effect of the eruption.
Prior to the volcanic eruption, Labour Force data indicated a 24.9 % unemployment rate with female unemployment (30%) significantly higher than that of male (20.7%).

Youth unemployment was almost double that of the adult population at 40 %, see Table 3.

Interestingly, some 80% of Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises (MSMEs) can be found in the informal sector, which employs large proportions of women.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant proportion of those persons in the labour force and employed both in the formal and informal sector, would have lost jobs.

Some 48 % of those persons interviewed who had been evacuated indicated that they were unemployed.

24% indicated that they were employed, as illustrated in Figure 3.

Among those who had reported being currently unemployed, 21% indicated that they had been unemployed prior to the volcanic eruption as illustrated in Figure 4.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 170 Figure 3.
Current Employment Status Unemployed Employed Self-employed 24 % 19 % 48 % Not active in the labour force 7 % Studying 1 % Underage 1 % Figure 4: Reasons for unemployment and reduction of income For those currently unemployed, reason for unemployment For those currently employed, reduction in household income as a result of the disaster 21 % 12 % Lost main income source 4 % Reduced 8 % No reduction 12 % Already unemployed prior to the disaster Loss of job as a result of the disaster Closure of business as a result of the disaster 5 % Unable to work due to disability Unable to work due to other vulnerabilities 2 % 1 % Other 6 % Source: The Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment Survey Loss of income during a disaster is sometimes the weight that tilts vulnerable households and individuals from being just above the poverty line to falling below the line, and those who were surviving in poverty to falling into indigence, with significant consequences for wellbeing.
Table 4 presents estimates of income lost in three sectors as a result of the volcanic eruption, amounting to some XCD$56 million.

The loss represents the income forgone for the seven- month period following the eruption.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 171 Table 3: Personal income lost Source: Estimates based on Government of St Vincent and the Grenadines data The three sectors Agriculture Forestry and Fishing, Wholesale and Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Service activity were severely affected as a result of both COVID-19 and the Volcanic eruption.

Table 4, seeks to capture only income lost as a result of the eruption of the volcano and not income lost prior to this event.
The survey undertaken by the MoNM with the support of WFP, noted that some 17 % of those who reported to be unemployed as a result of the volcanic eruption, gave as reasons either loss of job (12%) or closure of business (5%).

In Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, men comprise the majority of the workforce (21%) while women comprise the smaller share (7.8%).

The personal income loss amounted to some XCD$33 million.
The loss of livelihoods due to displacement, particularly in the agricultural sector was felt deeply by women, who participated in farming, many of whom were single heads of households.

In Wholesale and Retail Trade, where women make up the largest share (21.1%) and men the smaller share ( 14.6%), the personal income loss amounted to some XCD $10.3 million.
In the Accommodation and Food service activity (which is often used as a proxy for the tourism sector), women have the larger share (11.25%) and men the smaller (5.2%), the loss of personal income amounted to XCD$12.46 million.

The data suggests that more women would have suffered a disproportionate loss of income relative to their male counterparts as a result of the volcanic eruption, except in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.
The volcanic eruption presented additional challenges for women’s employment as it created instability in the sectors which were already fragile as a result of from COVID19 impacts and where women engaged in low-income employment in large numbers.

Small businesses in the red zones (shops, stores, etc.)

that women heavily relied on PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports for employment felt the effects due in part to looting and the physical destruction of buildings.
Women also suffered the hardship of loss of income due to the receipt of lower remittances from countries such as the United Kingdom, United States of America and Canada.

Data suggests that 11% of males depend on non-employment income from abroad, compared to nearly 20% of females.
For females in particular, remittances are the most important source of non-employment income.54 to responded Government the hardship experienced by the population through its social protection programmes and other interventions delivered with the support of development partners.

Figure 5 presents a snapshot of some of the programmes conducted in partnership.
In response to the needs for psychosocial support, a Psychosocial Family Life Education Programme, funded by UNICEF and implemented by MoNM - Social Protection Division, commenced on August 1, 2021 for 500 Displaced Families from the Red Zone.

It will be a three-month long programme PAGE 172 focused on modules of coping skills development, parenting education and awareness-building.
The awareness-building will comprise child abuse awareness, gender role development, disability awareness and hygiene education.

International and The Red Cross from the Soufriere Relief Cash grant Data programme administered by the MoNM and the World Food Programme (WFP), the Adventist Development and Relief International (ADRA), is CARITAS also presented in Box 5.
The estimated value of transfers to be provided by WFP was expected to be US$2.9m (cash transfers) with US$ 670,000 in vouchers over a four-month period, reaching some 3,539 families and representing 17,492 individuals.

The other three programmes supported an additional 585 families.

Approximately 5,100 households were surveyed for potential inclusion through the Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment Survey.
The Soufrière Relief Grant will assist people’s well-being as they cope with and recover from the disaster and lay groundwork for longer term support through social assistance.
Figure 5 Social protection programmes in partnership Source: Ministry of Social Mobilization 54 UNDP HEAT Report St. Vincent and the Grenadines PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 173 In response to the reported cases of domestic violence the Gender Affairs Division also provided a three (3) month engagement on Gender-Based Violence in the shelters that are more prone to domestic violence.
This engagement served as awareness building for evacuees, while at the same time educating them on the services available for victims and how to safely access these support services.

A psychosocial component was also included along with a skills training programme to build the technical capacity of person within the shelters.
Data from the Soufriere Relief Cash grant programme administered by the MoNM and the World Food Programme (WFP), with additional cash transfers provided by the Adventist Development and Relief International (ADRA), CARITAS International and The Red Cross was provided.

The estimated value of transfers to be provided by WFP was expected to be US$2.9m (cash transfers) with USD 670,000 in vouchers over a four-month period, reaching some 3,539 families and representing 17,492 individuals.
The other three programmes supported an additional 585 families.

Approximately 5,100 households were surveyed for potential inclusion through the Displaced Family Household Verification Assessment Survey.

The Soufrière Relief Grant will assist people’s well-being as they cope with and recover from the disaster and lay groundwork for longer term support through social assistance.
The social protection programmes target indigent persons, those with disabilities, children, the elderly, and insured National Insurance Scheme (NIS) contributors.

The Social Protection Division provides a range of specialized services, catering primarily to the needs of the poor, indigent and vulnerable persons in society.

The objective of the array of social safety nets available is to improve the social and economic condition of the most vulnerable and to enhance their standards of living.
Figure 6 presents Government expenditure on social protection measures through MoNM, suggesting that the 2021 expenditure, which represents mid-year expenditure is likely to be greater than that of 2020.
55 Table 5: Government expenditure on Social Protection Measures (XCD) 2019 2020 Actual to date 2021 17,382,790 20,388,082 12,113,611 Source: Ministry of National Mobilisation, Social Development, Gender, Youth, Housing and Informal Human Settlement The Survey undertaken by the MoNM with the support of WFP noted that some 72% of persons who had been evacuated, identified food as their highest priority need, and when asked what assistance needs did they have 42% responded that food packages was the first priority need, cash transfers/vouchers were reported by 29% of respondents, as second (see Figures 6 and 7).
A regional CARICOM/WFP survey conducted in 2020, found that a third of respondents from SVG reported that they were eating less or skipping meals.

The threat to food security as a result of the volcanic eruption would have increased the existing issues of affordability, accessibility and availability.

56 Expenditure on programmes administered by the National Insurance Scheme have not been included.
55 56 The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mr Saboto Caesar noted , when speaking before the Special Advisory Commission on Management Issues (SACMI) of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), that SVG “ have problems that affect food security and sovereignty”.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 174 Figure 7.
Priority Assistance Needs Assistance needs (1st priority) Food packages 42% Cash transfer/ vouchers 29 % Mattress 14 % Building materials Clothing Other 4 % 2 % 8 % Source: The Displaced Family Household Verification Survey Figure 8.
Priority needs Priority needs (top 1) Food Building materials 8 % Drinking water 4 % Employment Support to my livelihood 2 % 2 % Other 12 % Source: The Displaced Family Household Verification Survey 72% PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 175 Recommendations for Recovery Strategic Lines of action Interventions Re-engineering economic growth Increase investments in renewable energy to diversify the energy mix and reduce fossil fuel dependency and cost, to households particularly the poor and vulnerable Timeframe for Action Long Provide training and skills enhancement opportunities for citizens’ participation in renewable energy initiatives to reduce the carbon footprint and greening the economy in line with SDG targets Medium Enabling Increased Human and Social Development Strengthen social protection systems by enhancing delivery of coordinated programmes Medium Linking Cash Transfer Programmes with training and skills development for capacity-building to increase human capital and improve beneficiaries’ opportunities for higher-level labour market participation Short Provide opportunities for women to obtain employment in the formal labour market; to participate in National Insurance Schemes while working in the informal sector; and for greater remuneration equality in sectors that are traditionally male-dominated.
Medium Rebuilding homes that are climate-resilient Medium Resettlement of vulnerable households from the Red Zone and providing necessary support services to assist them to establish a sense of community in the new location/s ensuring a gender responsive approach to recovery.
Medium Improving Physical Infrastructure, Preserving the Environment and Building Resilience to Climate Change PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 176 Macro-economic impact analysis Executive summary The La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption had a pervasive and substantial impact on the St. Vincent and the Grenadines macroeconomy with a total sum of damages of XCD 416.07 million and losses of XCD 218.57 million which cumulatively are equivalent to 18.1% of the country’s 2020 GDP.
This is estimated to negatively affect the economy with a decline projected to be between -3.58% and 6.07%, depending on the underlying assumptions from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) relative to the respective baselines in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

GDP Alternative performance scenarios This disruption to economic output is projected to continue for at least 24 months as the country recovers, though volcanic activity continues to pose a threat to the island economy and a source of uncertainty for planning.

Sectors most affected in terms of losses were Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry, which are the sectors that are expected following previous years to decline contractions.
further In terms of damages the most affected was to the housing stock of 18 percent mainly on the mainland.

Most homes were affected by ash accumulated on roof structures.

Notable is that even after the eruptions subsided, red and orange zone communities were still being affected by lahars.

The housing sector has the largest estimated recovery needs of XCD 356 million or 48.8 percent of the total recovery needs.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 177 Also, severely affected in terms of damage and losses were the Agriculture and Transport sectors with an estimated total damages and losses of XCD 230.1 million and $74.4 million.

Physical damages to road structures and bridges accounted for 42.1 percent of the total damage while the rebuilding of road, river crossing infrastructure, bridges and changes in economic flows and removal of ash accounted for 57.9 percent of the total loss cost.
Recovery needs for the transport sector amounted to XCD 89.6 million.

Fiscally, both the decrease in GDP and the necessary recovery expenditures are projected to to have a short-term negative impact.

In the Quarter 1 period, January to March 2021, Current Revenue decreased by 4% as compared to the same period in 2020.

The Fiscal Outlook for the remainder of 2021 projects that Current Revenue will grow by XCD 17.14m.

In 2021, Recurrent Expenditure is projected to increase by 3.4 percent of GDP.
As a result, the Overall Deficit is anticipated to increase from -5.7 percent of GDP for the year 2020 to -10.0 percent of GDP for the year 202, and the Primary Deficit is expected to move from $72.85m -3.3 percent of GDP to -7.9 percent of GDP.

Externally, the eruption has also led to a disruption in trade mostly in goods: Exports in the category of “Food & Live Animals” for the period January to June 2021 fell by 8.50% relative to the similar period of 2020.
This is largely attributed to the fact that 27.5% of all registered farmers are in the “Red and Orange Zones” where mandatory evacuations were conducted for several months prior to and after the volcanic eruptions.

Additionally, damages to the crop sub-sector accounted for 56.9% of the damage to the agricultural sector.

Exports of travel services were not seriously affected as most of the island’s accommodation are in the “green zone” where no significant damages were recorded in this regard.
However, several tourist sites were inundated with ash and would need rehabilitative efforts.

Therefore, SVG’s capacity to attract its regular tourism travellers, in the near to medium term, may be diminished if most were attracted by the touristic sites.

Given the importance of travel to SVG’s trade in services, the trade balance is likely to deteriorate in the near to medium term.
In the longer term, SVG may be able to target niche of travellers who are interested in the after-effects of a volcanic eruption.

In the short term the negative impact in the external sector is being compensated by inbound remittances which for the period for the first five months (January to May) for 2018 to 2021 generally trended upwards.
Increases in 2020 and 2021 are possibly attributed to remittances spurred by COVID-19 stimulus grants in source countries such as the USA as well as the diapora’s efforts to mitigate the financial burden inflicted by COVID-19 and the volcanic eruptions in SVG.

Additionally, Outbound remittances for the period January to May 2018 to 2021 trended downwards leading to a lesser flow of resources to the exterior.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 178 by expansions in tourism arrivals, construction activities and an increase in exports of non- traditional crops.

As a result of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic there was a sharp decline in economic performance in 2020 as borders closed and lockdowns were implemented by a number of the country’s main trading and tourism partners.
Context and baseline Economic performance the In 2018, real GDP grew by 2.2 percent but declined to 0.49 percent in 2019 as a result of contraction of and manufacturing sectors.

Notwithstanding, the overall economic performance of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) was expected to improve in 2020 driven construction Figure 2.
Baseline Observed and expected GDP Share of main productive sectors in GDP (See annex II) Being a services economy, wholesale and retail trade amount to more than 14% of GDP, based on their average contribution for the period 2018-2020 (see table 2).

The contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP has essentially declined from 6.5 percent in 2018 to 5.8 percent in 2020 representing a decrease of 11.38 percent.
Basic services (comprising electricity & water) contribute to less than 4.5%, while construction weighs more than 8%.

Tourism, in spite of its contribution to foreign exchange and marketing strategies; (hotels and restaurants) amount to 2.1% of GDP.

While hotel and restaurants share of GDP is relatively small, the direct effects on the non-tradable sectors such as construction, transport and real estate is much larger accounting for 8.2 percent, 12.2 percent and 17.1 percent respectively.
Public administration represents slightly more than 12 percent of GDP.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 179 Table 1.
Main sectors’ contribution to GDP in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (average 2019-2020) SECTOR 2018 2019 2020 Revised Preliminary Projected Average 2018-2020 Average % Agriculture, Hunting & Forestry 101.72 102.31 Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & Water Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurants Hotels Restaurant Transport, Storage & Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting and Business services Renting of machinery and equipment Computer related services Business services Public Administration , Defence and Education Health & Social Work Other Community, Social & Personal services Private Households with Employed Persons TOTAL/OVERALL 1,516.41 1,520.59 1,448.99 1495.33 100.00% Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology E xternal sector and balance of payments.57 57 The trade in goods services statistics are provided in additional details, in
 an Annex.
Goods are classified as per the Standard international trade classification (SITC).

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 180 External sector and balance of payments58 Overview An analysis of trade statistics for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines for the period 2017 to 2020, show positive balances for trade in services.
This positive performance of trade in services is largely attributed to good performances in the travel category, valued at more than 70% of GDP over the period under consideration.

It is consistent with the structure of most small open economies, highly dependent on the export of tourism services.

Trade in goods, on the other hand, recorded negative balance of trade for the period 2017 to 2020.
Trade in Services The trade in services for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) over the period resulted in a positive balance of trade (see Figure 3 and Table 2).

Total exports surpassed total imports for 2017 to 2020.

This is reflective of the country’s classification as a predominantly service-based economy.

Whilst there were small fluctuations, both imports and exports generally trended upwards from 2017 to 2019, after which they both declined in 2020.
“Transportation” and “Other Business and Services” maintained their position as SVG’s highest valued imported services over the period, accounting for an average of 35.48 and 21.32 percent respectively of total imports over the period.

Travel remained the highest valued exported services over the period, accounting for an average of 85.95% of total exports from 2017 to 2019 before falling to 72.58% in 2020.
Trade in Goods Trade in goods presents the opposite image of trade in services, maintaining a negative balance of trade for the period under consideration (see Table 2).

Total imports exceed total exports over the period.

Imports trended upwards from 2017 to 2018, largely because of a 64.17% increase in the category of “Mineral Fuels & Related Materials”.
Subsequently, total imports trended downwards from 2018 to 2020 (see Table 2), attributed to declines in most of the categories but particularly “Food and Live Animals” which registered the largest decrease.

Similar dynamic was observed for exports trended upwards over the period 2017 to 2018 before declining in 2019 and then spiking to 146.4m in 2020.
The 2020 spike is largely attributed to an increase in the category of machinery and transport equipment while the upward trend in 2018 was largely attributed to increases in “Beverages and Tobacco” and “Manufactured Goods”.

Total goods exported as a percentage of GDP trended upwards from 5.36 percent in 2017 to 8.08 percent in 2020 (see Table 2).

Total goods imported as a percentage of GDP trended downwards from 49.99% in 2017 to 46.18% in 2020.
58 The trade in goods services statistics are provided in additional details, in an Annex.

Goods are classified as per the Standard international trade classification (SITC).

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 181 Figure 3.
External trade of St. Vincent and the Grenadines Trade in Services 2017 to 2020 (Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars) Trade in Goods 2017 to 2020 (Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars) Source: Trade in Services Data, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Table 2: Summary of Trade in Goods and Services 2017 to 2020 Trade in Services in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Exports Total Imports Balance of Trade 672.48 354.32 318.16 707.73 364.36 343.37 Trade in Goods in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars Total Exports Total Exports as % of GDP Total Imports Total Imports as % of GDP GDP at current market prices Balance of Trade 114.70 5.36 890.87 49.99 2,138.88 -776.17 117.90 6.47 954.84 52.40 2,190.51 -836.94 771.16 388.77 382.39 103.18 5.58 905.16 48.98 307.22 234.37 72.85 146.41 8.08 836.94 46.18 2,226.74 2,186.14 -801.98 - 690.53 Source: Trade in Service, Visible Trade Statistics and GDP Data, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 182 Trends in Total Remittances largest Total inbound remittances trended upwards for the period 2017 to 2020 (see table 3 and top panel of table 7).
As shown in “A” in table 4, the USA maintained its position as the main source inbound remittances country for the over the period 2017 to 2020, with an average share of 42%, followed by Canada and the UK.

The remaining is derived from various other countries which collectively represent the second highest source of remittances over the period, with an average of 30%.

Inbound remittances as a percentage of GDP trended upwards from 5.61% in 2017 to 7.33% in 2020 (see Figure 4).
Total outbound remittances declined at a reducing rate over the period 2017 to 2020, registering declines of 11.27%, 9.65% and 7.15% for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively (see Table 3).

The countries which received the most remittances from SVG are those classified under the category of “others” (See Table 4).

Remittances to these countries trended downwards from 56% in 2017 to 51% in 2020.

The US followed as the next highest recipient country, recording an average receipt of 32%.
Outbound remittances as a percentage of GDP trended downwards from 1.34% in 2017 to 0.98% in 2020 (see Figure 4).
Table 3: Total Remittances 2017 to 2021 Total Remittances for SVG 2017 to 2021 in Eastern Caribbean Dollars (XCD) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Inbound 120,014,764.95 131,799,850.16 136,389,513.92 160,252,480.58 % change (Inbound) 9.82% 3.48% 17.50% Total Outbound 28,694,991.21 25,460,730.43 23,003,312.99 21,358,032.28 % Change (Outbound) -11.27% -9.65% -7.15% Source: SVG FSA PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports .
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1 2 1 9 9 4 9 6 8 2 , , - - PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 184 Figure 4: Inbound and Outbound Remittances 2017 to 2020 – graph and table representation Remittances as a percentage GDP (in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars) Total Inbound Remittances (IB) Total IB as percentage of GDP Total Outbound Remittances (OB) Total OB as percentage of GDP 2017 120.01 5.61% 28.69 1.34% 2018 131.8 6.02% 25.46 1.16% 2019 136.39 6.13% 23% 1.03% 2020 160.25 7.33% 21.36 0.98% GDP at market prices (Current) 2,138.88 2,190.51 2,226.74 2,186.14 Source: SVG FSA & ECCB/SVG Statistical Office Public Finances Over the last three fiscal years, the overall fiscal position of the government has deteriorated from year to year, from a deficit 0.9% of GDP in 2018 to a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2020.
This performance reflected the growth in recurrent and capital expenditure.

Annual revenues moderated the impact of the rising expenditure on the overall balance.

Corresponding with the worsened overall deficit, the level of Public Debt also increased over the period.

increase in Current Revenue the Grenadines grew by less than 1.0% annually over for St. Vincent and the period 2018-2020, moving from XCD 596.40 million in 2018 to XCD 601.72 million in 2019 and XCD 606.27 million in 2020.
On the capital side, a notable increase in revenue was recorded as it moved from XCD 40.65 million in 2018 to XCD 78.30 million in 2019, and XCD 109.41 million in 2020.

The growth in capital revenue in 2019 was mainly on account of an increase in grants which went up by 86.7% in 2018 to XCD 74.09 million in 2019.
In 2020, capital revenue grew by 39.7% mainly driven by the sale of the Buccament Bay Resort for XCD 34.30 million and an XCD 10.00 million draw down from the contingencies fund to aid in financing the Government’s Covid-19 response package.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 185 Growth in Recurrent Expenditure outpaced that of Current Revenue, moving by 4.4%, on average, per annum.
Outlays increased from XCD 572.96 million in 2018 by 4.8% to XCD 600.44 million in 2019 and a further 6.9% to XCD 641.81 million in 2020.

The growth in expenditure from 2018 to 2019 was mainly reflective of a 5.6% increase in Compensation of Employees which was influenced by salary enhancements during the period along with changes in allowances and increments.
An increase of 6.9% in recurrent expenditure from 2019 to 2020 was mainly on account of a 6.4% growth in spending on Compensation of Employees and 47.6% increase in Social Assistance Benefits.

Compensation of Employees was positively impacted by a 2.0% salary increase paid to public servants from January 2020.

This was a result of filling critical posts across the public sector and changes in increments and allowances during the period.
Higher amounts were expended on Social Assistance Benefits as part of the government’s COVID-19 response package.

Figure 5: St. Vincent and the Grenadines Fiscal Operations 2018- 2020 Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 186 Spending on the Public Sector Investment Programme expanded significantly between 2018 and 2020.
Capital Expenditure increased by 61.3% from XCD $98.89m in 2018 to XCD $159.56m in 2019 and by 32.4% to XCD211.18m in 2020.
The increase was mainly on account of spending for the following projects: • Geothermal Project (XCD32.88m) in 2019 • • Regional Disaster Vulnerability Risk Reduction Programme (XCD21.73m) in 2019 Regional Disaster Vulnerability Risk Reduction Programme (XCD44.06m) in 2020 • Acquisition of Buccament Bay Resort (XCD31.44m) in 2020 The country has a large Public Sector indebtedness, which increased substantially from XCD 1.66 billion in 2018 to XCD 1.87 billion in 2020, a 12.7% increase over the 2-year period.
The public sector debt to GDP ratio which stood at 75.7% in 2018, declined in 2019 to 73.6%.

However, the ratio returned to a higher level in 2020 (84.9%) largely due to the resources required to cushion the effects of the economic fall out as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Figure 6: Public Sector DEBT to GDP (%) 100 75 50 25 0 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 St. Vincent and the Greanadines – Debt to GDP Ratios – Total Public Sector The majority of Public Debt is external amounting to 65.1%, 70.7% and 68.9% of obligations, for the periods 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.
The increase in debt was mainly attributed to disbursements on existing external loans, most notably, the World Bank’s Regional Disaster Vulnerability Project in the amount of XCD41.09 million and a Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Financing in the amount of XCD54.00 million.

Financing from the IMF amounted to XCD43.13 million in the form of a Rapid Credit Facility specifically to aid in the response to Covid-19.

CDB also disbursed XCD12.69 million for Covid-19 emergency response support.
Total securities issued amounted to XCD99.22 million.

Domestic Borrowing were from GOSVG and ECCB in the amounts of XCD20.00 million and XCD10.00 million, respectively.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 187 Price Fluctuations The Consumer Price Index for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 showed that the annual average “point- to-point” inflation rates were 2.3%, 0.8% and negative 0.5% respectively (see Annex 111).
For all months of 2018 and 2019 positive values were recorded (see Figure 7).

Overall changes in the inflation rate were driven mostly by movements of prices of “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages”, “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels” and “Transport”.
Figure 7: Point to Point of Inflation rate, January - December 2018-2020 Source: The Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology Post-eruption estimated impact and recovery scenarios Economic performance As at the end of 2020, it was projected that the economy would begin to recover in 2021 with an estimated growth of 0.72 percent and -3.52 percent based projections by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) respectively.
However, post eruption estimates were revised and growth rates are negatively projected from the MOF and ECCB at -3.58 and -6.07 percent respectively.

This is on account of expected declines in government revenue as a result of reduction in economic in major influenced by contractions activity sectors such as Agriculture, Fishing, Transport and Storage, Manufacturing and Tourism.
Increased government expenditure as rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged is expected to intensify in the aftermath of the volcanic eruption by the end of the year will mostly be reflected in accelerated growth rate in 2022 of 9.55 and 4.81 percent based on the MOF and ECCB projections.
infrastructure PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 188 Figure 8. comparing projected GDP Growth Rate for Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology Sectors directly affected by the volcanic eruptions, such as the Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry sector are expected to decline further following previous years contractions of 1.26 and 12.58 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
The total effects to this sector are estimated at XCD 230.1 million.

The production of ‘Other Crops’, such as plantains, root crops (dasheen, eddoes, yams, sweet potatoes, ginger, arrowroot, cassava, tannia, carrots and peanuts), fruits and vegetables and fruit trees were adversely affected with a recorded loss of 100 percent in the red and orange zones.
The amount needed for recovery to this sector is estimated at XCD 258.8 million The housing sector was also affected with an estimated damage to housing stock of 18 percent mainly on the mainland.

Loss estimates in the housing sector correspond to three main categories: a) costs for removal of rubble, b) costs associated to the provision of temporary housing therefore operation and maintenance of shelters, and c) foregone income from rental housing.
Most homes were affected by ash accumulated on roof structures and on the houses.

Notable is that even after the eruptions subsided, red and orange zone communities were still being affected by lahars.

The housing sector has the largest estimated recovery needs of XCD 356 million or 48.8 percent of the total recovery needs.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 189 the customers, reconnections, between others.
Recovery needs in the electricity sector covers the costs to overcome the identified damages and losses generated by the La Soufriere volcanic eruption.

The total recovery needs amount to XCD 1.2 million.

and storage Transport, communication contributed on average of 13.35 percent to GDP.

This sector was mostly affected by the volcanic eruption with an estimated total damage and loss of XCD 74.4 million.
Physical damages to road structures and bridges accounting for 42.1 percent of the total damage and lost estimate while the rebuilding of road, river crossing infrastructure, bridges and changes in economic flows and removal of ash accounted for 57.9 percent of the total damage and loss cost.

Recovery needs for the transport sector amounted to XCD 89.3 million.
The table presents the damage and losses, as well as the recovery needs estimated by the PDNA teams, broken down by main sectors affected and suffered by both the public and private sector: Losses for the tourism sector is estimated at XCD 12.2 million mainly from ash falls which affected 8 main tourism sites.
The assessment team estimated the losses as the difference between income earned from each affected site during April and May 2021 with the income earned during 2020, and the remuneration to their staff from April to June 2021 and renovations to be done at recreational sites.

The total recovery needs for the tourism sector are projected at XCD 1.5 million.
Electricity on an average contributes 3.09 percent towards GDP with a projected contribution of 3.34 and 3.42 percent for the years 2020 and 2021 respectively.

The accumulation of ash on transmission, distributions lines and other equipment resulting in short circuits and island wide outages.

These damages are estimated to cost XCD 0.1 million.
Losses were also incurred of approximately XCD 0.9 million associated with cleaning, reductions of electricity generation and/ or reductions of electricity sales, fluctuations in the electricity prices, increment of tariffs paid by PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 190 Table 6.
Summary of La Soufrière volcanic eruption damage and losses and recovery needs Sector Damage (XCD) Loss (XCD) Total Effects (XCD) Recovery Needs (XCD) SOCIAL Housing Health Education INFRASTRUCTURE WASH Transport Electricity PRODUCTIVE 104,378,880 138,541,537 242,920,417 260,353,540 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 103,848,380 126,296,910 230,145,290 258,855,290 Tourism-Accom.
Tourism-Parks CROSS CUTTING Disaster Risk Reduction - 11,810,000 11,810,000 - 530,500 434,627 965,127,327 1,498,250 2,375,265 TOTAL 416,079,487 218,575,205 634,654,692 739,728,086 Source: Mission sectoral teams External Sector Remittances (Post Eruption Period) Inbound remittances for the period for the first five months (January to May) for 2018 to 2021 generally trended upwards, with reductions registered only from countries classified in the category of “others (see Table 7).
In keeping with the annual trends, the highest remittances over the period originated from the US.

Notably, the largest increase in inbound remittances was for the period January to May 2021.

Increases in 2020 and 2021 are possibly attributed to remittances spurred by COVID-19 stimulus grants in source countries such as the USA as well as the diaspora’s efforts to mitigate the financial burden inflicted by COVID-19 and the volcanic eruptions in SVG.
While remittances increased from the USA, UK and Canada in the 2021 period, the highest increase was 60.49% from the UK followed by 53.37 from from the Canada.

The countries classified as “others” declined but did so by a smaller percentage in 2021 relative to 2020. inbound remittances Outbound remittances for the period January to May 2018 to 2021 trended downwards, as shown by “B” in Table 7 below.
In keeping with the annual PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 191 trends in remittances, the countries included in the category of “other” are those receiving the most remittances from SVG.

Interestingly, outbound remittances increased in 2021 relative to 2020 with Canada being the beneficiary of the biggest increase.
This increase is possibly attributed to households and businesses using remittances to capitalize on the government’s policy to which reduced or eliminate duties on some classes of imports during the aftermath of the eruption of the La Soufriere Volcano.
Table 7: Remittances in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars A. Inbound Remittances January to May 2018 to 2021 USA UK Canada Other B. USA UK Canada Other 2018 2019 % Change (2019) 2020 % Change (2020) 2021 % Change (2021) 20,329,341 24,253 19.30 25,787,307 6.32 35,681,939 4,370,837 4,876,919 11.58 5,571,308 14.24 8,941,311 8,784,356 9,094,736 3.53 10,623,348 16.81 16,293,296 16,673,14 18,997,849 13.94 15,663,204 -17.55 15,648,221 38.37 60.49 53.37 - 0.10 Outbound Remittances January to May 2018 to 2021 2018 2019 % Change (2019) 2020 % Change (2020) 2021 % Change (2021) 3,075,776 2,945,543 4.23 2,145,951 - 27.15 2,336,598 327,042 456,376 872,946 825,772 39.55 -5.40 388,868 779,053 -14.79 400,677 -5.66 955,548 5,827,770 5,148,863 -11.65 4,002,687 -22.26 4,191,950 8.88 3.04 22.66 4.73 Source: FSA, SVG External sector and balance of payments Trade in Goods Exports in the category of “Food & Live Animals” for the period January to June 2021 fell by 8.50% relative to the similar period of 2020.
This is largely attributed to a reduction of 24.63% and 23.57% respectively in the sub-categories of “Vegetables and fruit” and “cereals and cereal preparations.

The changes in “Food & Live Animals” associated to the fact that 27.5% of all registered farmers are in the “Red and Orange Zones” where mandatory evacuations were conducted for several months prior to and after the volcanic eruptions.

Additionally, damages to the crop sub- sector accounted for 56.9% of the damage to the agricultural sector.
Trade in Services Exports of travel services accounted for 82.11% of average trade in services over the period 2018 to 202159 and is therefore the trade category which 59 Data available for 2021 are projected, prior to the volcanic eruption and is sourced from the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 192 is discussed to inform the impacts of the volcanic eruption on SVG’s trade in services.
Given that most of the island’s accommodation are located in the “green zone” no significant damages were recorded in this regard.

However, several tourist sites were inundated with ash and are in need of rehabilitative efforts.

Therefore, SVG’s capacity to attract its regular tourism travellers, in the near to medium term, may be diminished if most were attracted by the touristic sites.
Given the importance of travel to SVG’s trade in services, the trade balance is likely to deteriorate in the near to medium term.

In the longer term, SVG may be able to target niche of travelers who are interested in the after-effects of a volcanic eruption.
Public Finances Figure 9: Medium Term Fiscal Operations Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology Fiscal Outlook and annual projections post eruption The April 2021 eruption of the La Soufrière Volcano is projected to have an adverse impact on the fiscal operations for the remainder of 2021, however the outlook for the first half of 2021 tells a different story.
In the period Quarter 1, January to March 2021, Current Revenue decreased by 4% as compared to the same period in 2020.

This was on account of lower receipts from Taxes on Good and Services, which saw a 10.1% decrease from the 2020 period.

Capital Revenue increased significantly by 660% from XCD 0.61 million in 2020 to XCD 4.7 million in the same period of 2021.

This was attributed to the inflow of grants for COVID-19 relief and other capital revenue.
Current Expenditure remained relatively unchanged for the period as there was only a 0.2% increase from XCD 147.0 million in 2020 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 193 to XCD 147.3 million for the same period in 2021 while Capital Expenditure increased by XCD 1.6 million or 16.2% as projects continued.

Table 8.
Fiscal Outlook Quarter 1 (Jan-Mar) 2021 2020 $ Millions (XCD) % change Current Revenue 141.26 147.12 Current Expenditure 147.29 147.02 Capital Revenue 4.66 Capital Expenditure 11.30 Current Balance Primary Balance Overall Balance -6.03 -1.60 -12.67 0.61 9.72 0.10 4.70 8.80 -4.0% 0.2% 660.6% 16.2% -6012.7% -134.1% -244.0% Quarter 2 (Apr-Jun) Current Revenue 181.561 135.72 Current Expenditure 168.796 160.17 Capital Revenue 40.49 7.14 Capital Expenditure 60.232 32.38 Current Balance 12.765 -24.45 Primary Balance 12.555 -31.16 Overall Balance 0.038 -42.89 34% 5% 467% 86% -152% -140% -100% Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and information Technology In contrast, the period Quarter 2, April to June 2021, saw significant increases in both revenue and expenditure due to the impact of the eruption of the La Soufrière volcano in April 2021.
Current Revenue increased by 34% from XCD 135.7 million in 2020 to XCD 181.6 million 2021.

This was on account of higher receipts in taxes on property, up to XCD 45.1 million from XCD 2 million.

Capital Revenue increased from XCD 7.1 million in 2020 to XCD 40.5 million in 2021.

This was mainly attributed to a 15 million drawdown from the Contingencies fund and the inflow of disaster relief funds.
Current Expenditure increased by 5% while Capital Expenditure significantly increased by 86% from XCD 32.4 million in 2020 to XCD 60.2 million in 2021.

The Fiscal Outlook for the remainder of 2021 projects that Current Revenue will grow by $17.14m.

This is attributable to a forecasted 77.5 percent increase in taxes on property (a total of XCD 72.47 million).
In contrast, lower receipts from Taxes on Income & Profits, Taxes on Goods & Services and Taxes on International Trade are expected as a reflection of the slowdown in domestic economic activity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the April 2021 volcanic eruption.

In 2021, Recurrent Expenditure is projected to increase by 3.4 percent of GDP, as all categories of expenditure are projected to grow during the period.
Capital Expenditure is projected at XCD 215 million and is expected to grow and remain high in 2022 and 2023 on account of the anticipated the Port Redevelopment implementation of project.

After this, Capital Expenditure is forecasted to fall back to its historical levels.

As a result, the Overall Deficit is anticipated to increase from -5.7 percent of GDP for the year 2020 to -10.0 percent of GDP for the year 2021.
Similarly, the Primary Deficit is expected to move from 72.85 million -3.3 percent of GDP to -7.9 percent of GDP.

Proposed Medium Term Fiscal Framework In 2022 the Overall Deficit is expected to worsen to XCD 298.36 million as the majority of spending on the Port Redevelopment Project will be undertaken during that year.

Following this, it is anticipated that the Overall Deficit will improve consistently with revenue growth and lower expenditure on capital projects.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 194 Based on Table 9, Current Revenue is projected to average 27.1 % of GDP in the Medium Term, while Capital Revenue is expected to average 2.9% of GDP.

This is under the assumption of increased economic activity in the various sectors as the economy continues to return to some form of normalcy following the negative shocks from COVID-19 and the eruption of the La Soufrière volcano.

Table 9.
Table 9.

Proposed Macroeconomic and Fiscal Forecast for 2022-2024 Table 2.

Proposed Macroeconomic and Fiscal Forecast for 2022-2024 2022 2023 $ Millions 2024 Avg.
$m % of GDP Current Revenue Current Expenditure Capital Revenue Capital Expenditure Current Balance Primary Balance Overall Balance 634.629 700.912 94.366 298.357 (66.284) (185.715) (256.274) 681.736 716.511 61.738 213.683 (34.775) (96.275) (172.519) 721.494 733.036 62.038 132.784 (11.542) 10.689 (67.788) 679.286 716.820 72.714 214.941 (37.53) (104.67) (179.76) GDP @ Market Prices Real GVA Growth (%) 2,343.88 9.5 2,522.95 5.5 2,655.68 3.4 2,507.50 6.2 Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and information Technology 27.1 28.6 2.9 8.6 (1.5) (4.2) (7.2) 100 Current Expenditure is expected to increase in the medium term by an average of 28.6% of GDP while, Capital Expenditure is projected to decrease yearly, although the average will still account for 8.6% of GDP.
This annual decrease is projected due to the fall out of expenditure on the Port Development project.

Over the period, the primary balance is expected to average 4.2% of GDP.

This is under the assumption that existing government policies continue without change.

Price fluctuations (CPI) For the first six months of 2021, the “point to point” inflation rate fluctuated with increases of 0.4 percent ,1.3 percent and 0.8 percent for the months of April, May and June respectively (See Table III in Annexes).
This was fuelled by movement in five groups.

These were “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels”, “Transport, “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages”, “Health” and ‘Recreation and Culture”.

As of June, “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels” recorded the largest increase of 1.9 percent on account of a rise in the price for electricity (10.6%), cooking gas (9.3%) and varnish (69.4%).
The increase in the price for electricity is a result of a higher fuel surcharge rate of 40.55 cents per kilowatt hour for June 2021 compared to 31.91 cents per kilowatt hour for May 2021.

The price of petrol grew by 8.0 percent while diesel grew by 5.0 percent.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 195 Figure 10.
Point to point inflation: January to June 2018-2021 Source: The Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Information Technology Conclusions and recommendations Economic prospects have worsened appreciably as a result of the Soufriere eruption on 9th April 2021.
Although, economic activity was only stopped temporarily, the effects on the economy may be more far reaching in relation to the reduction in potential output in the short-run and adverse impacts on infrastructure and debt sustainability in the medium to long-term.

The agriculture sector production was the most severely impacted along with the housing sectors and public infrastructure having suffered the most damages, particularly in the more vulnerable zones.
Losses in agriculture are estimated to be very significant, however, of equal concern to policy makers would be the potential on future output given the need to relocate some of the productive activities from the high risk zones.

The process of relocating households key to the agricultural sector will require deft negotiations with affected persons in the context of climate change considerations and stipulated zoning and risk mitigation requirements.
A positive development in agriculture may be the added incentive to intensify efforts to support local production, which already increased its market share during the pandemic as imports fell relatively faster than exports.
As for the post- eruption scenarios the projections vary providing a range of forecasts from a more conservative less dramatic fall in output outlined by the Central Statistics Office/Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, and more pessimistic outlooks from the CDB, IMF and the ECCB.

It bears reminding that the eruption adds to the negative effects that the Covid-19 Pandemic had over the country in economic and human terms in 2020.
Current and Capital revenue are anticipated to decrease, largely attributed to the prolonged effects of the COVID 19 pandemic and the volcanic eruption which have placed additional pressure on public finances.

Government expenditure will to support displaced persons and for reconstruction and rehabilitation.
Notwithstanding, the country had increase likely PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 196 an uptick in revenue in the first six months of 2021 on account of higher property taxes associated with the purchase of high valued properties in the Grenadines and Mustique as well as grants to support the ongoing disaster relief effort.
By the end of 2021, the Public Sector Investment Programme is expected to remain robust as there will be an increase in spending arising from the supplementary expenditures approved in response to the volcanic eruptions and special warrants during the period.
External balance of payments, highly dependent on services, did not show a major downturn; and the country received an influx of external resources due to the purchases referenced earlier from foreigners and the funds for reconstruction received from several sources.

Remittances also showed a positive evolution since 2020.
Finally, recovery needs framed in a recovery strategy will put additional pressure on the government’s investment budget, leading to an increase in indebtedness that is being partially mitigated by the increase in revenue and the availability of recovery funds from IFIs and other foreign income that include insurance payments and remittances from Vincentians abroad.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 197 Annexes: I.
Detailed share of sector in GDP St. Vincent & The Grenadines Percentage Contribution of Gross Value Added by Economic Activity, at Basic Prices, in Constant (2006) Prices: 2018-2020 SECTOR 2018 Revised 2019 Preliminary 2020 Projected Average 2018-2020 % Agriculture, Hunting & Forestry 101.72 102.31 Crops Bananas Other Crops Livestock Forestry Fishing Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & Water Electricity Water Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurants Hotels Restaurant Transport, Storage & Communications Transport & Storage Road Sea Air \Auxiliary transport activities and storage PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 198 SECTOR 2018 Revised 2019 Preliminary 2020 Projected Average 2018-2020 % Communications Telecommunication Postal & Courier Services Financial Intermediation Banks & Other Financial
 Institutions Insurance and pension funding Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation Real Estate, Renting and Business services Owner Occupied Dwellings Real Estate activities Renting of machinery and equipment Computer related services Business services 76.43
4.90 260.01 183.80 30.87 9.80 4.65 30.88 76.43 37.36 4.86 256.55 181.99 30.58 9.14 4.54 30.31 2.92% 2.82% 0.10% 7.93% 5.11% 2.50% 0.32% 17.16% 12.17% 2.04% 0.61% 0.30% 2.03% Public Administration, Defence and Com- pulsory Social Security 176.77 182.36 189.48 182.87 12.23% Central Local NIS Education Public Private Health & Social Work Public Private Other Community, Social & Personal ser- vices Private Households with Employed Persons Less FISM TOTAL SOURCE: St. Vincent & the Grenadines Statistical Office \ ECCB, Date: 16 October 2020 1,516.41 1,520.59 1,448.99 1495.33 100.00% PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports ) P ( 0 2 0 2 ) r P ( 9 1 0 2 8 1 0 2 7 1 0 2 1 2 0 2 ) P ( 0 2 0 2 ) r P ( .
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, s e c i v r e s n i e d a r T : e c r u o S PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 201 III.
Monthly CPI Point to point inflation rate January to December 2018 – 2020 and January to May 2021 Jan - Dec 2018 Jan – Dec 2019 Jan – Dec 2020 Jan – May 2021 -1.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 1.3 0.8 January February March April May June July August September October November December Average -0.5 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 SOURCE: St. Vincent & the Grenadines Statistical Office PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 202 IV.
Summary of Fiscal Operations (2018-2021) Details Jan-Dec 2018 Jan-Dec 2019 Jan-Dec 2020 TOTAL REVENUE & GRANTS CURENT REVENUE Taxes on Income and Profits Taxes on Property Taxes on Goods and Services Taxes on International Trade Property Income Sales of Goods and Services Other Revenue CAPITAL REVENUE & Grants Grants Other Revenue TOTAL EXPENDITURE CURRENT EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CURRENT BALANCE PRIMARY BALANCE OVERALL BALANCE 637.06 596.4 147.8 37.43 163.92 162.14 7.15 66.94 11.03 40.65 39.68 0.96 671.85 572.96 98.98 23.45 32.39 -19.71 680.02 601.72 140.29 27.11 186.49 160.1 9 65.7 13.04 78.3 74.09 4.21 760 600.44 159.56 1.28 -10.12 -66.03 715.68 606.27 143.2 40.83 185.82 153.2 10.42 61.43 10.62 109.41 63.24 46.17 852.99 641.81 211.18 -35.55 -72.85 -124.51 Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 203 V. Team members: Elke James Economist 1, EPSDU Giselle Myers, Senior Economist, EPSDU Jamal Byron, Statistical officer, Statistics Janelle Horne, Economist II EPSDU lorielle Robertson, Economist 1 ejames@svgcpd.com gmyers@svgcpd.com jbyron@svgcpd.com jhannaway@svgcpd.com loriellerobertson@gov.vc Shimeque Smith, Economist 1, EPSDU shimequesmith@gmail.com Sharie Roberts, Projects Officer 1 PSIP sroberts@svgcpd.com Shineco Sutherland, Economist 1, EPSDU ssutherland@svgcpd.com Stuart Davies, Senior Economist, UN RCO stuart.davies@un.org Kevin Wood, Country Economist, ECCB kevin.woods@eccb-centralbank.org Kimberly Waithe, CDB waithek@caribank.org
 Ricardo Zapata-Marti, consultant, EU ricardozapatamarti@gmail.com PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 204 Elements for Disaster Recovery Strategy The St. Vincent and the Grenadines Recovery Strategy presents elements to be considered as a road map for the country to rise from the ashes caused by the La Soufriere volcanic eruption as a resilient, resilient, climate-responsive society that equitably stimulates human capabilities, sustainable improved quality of life.
The recovery strategy promotes inclusive growth, builds the adaptive capacities of households and communities, increases the resilience of vulnerable sectors and communities, and optimizes disaster mitigation and climate change opportunities with a view to promoting the welfare and security of the population.

opportunities, and for partnerships The recovery process is to be guided by good governance principles within the context of poverty alleviation and environmental protection.
for It recognizes the need effective delivery of support to the people of the country - that is, working together through the complementation of resources.

In this context, the Government, engaging the participation of civil society organizations (CSO), regional and international organizations, the private sector and volunteers in the government’s resilience-building programmes is part and parcel of the national recovery strategy.
resilience-building coordination mechanisms The Recovery strategy highlights the need for policies, institutionalizing structures, and programmes with continuing but greater budget appropriation on DRM and CCA from national to local levels.

Thus, the strategy outlines the activities which shall strengthen the capacity of personnel of national government, district and local government units and partner stakeholders and build the disaster resilience of communities.
It also outlines institutionalized arrangements and measures for reducing disaster risks, including projected climate risks, and enhancing disaster preparedness and response capabilities at all levels.
recovery strategy also highlights The the importance of mainstreaming DRM and CCA measures in the development processes such as policy formulation, socio-economic development planning, budgeting and governance, particularly in the area of environment, agriculture, water, energy, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), health, education, poverty reduction, land-use and urban planning and public infrastructure and housing among others.
Mainstreaming also puts forth the need to develop common tools to analyse the various hazards and vulnerability factors that expose the communities and people to harm.

and science-based Competency capacity building activities are likewise incorporated into the recovery strategy, along with the nurturing of continuous through knowledge development and management of good DRM and CCA practices on the ground.
learning A critical component of the recovery strategy will be the need to establish measurable, quantitative and qualitative targets for achievement, which should be phased to facilitate optimal sequencing of activities and to ensure complementarities, within a specific period.

the strategy recovery incorporates Finally, systemic risk and systemic opportunity into the recovery interventions of policies and critical investments in infrastructure and physical assets.
This is a recognition that current approaches to risk measurement and management are inadequate to meet the challenges of the PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 205 multifaceted interconnectedness of hazard, the barely understood breadth of exposure, and the profound detail of vulnerability; this inadequacy must be addressed if we are to do more than simply treat the symptoms.
The era of hazard- by-hazard risk reduction is over; present and future approaches to managing risk require an understanding of the systemic nature of risk.
This entails quantum in our understanding of anthropogenic systems in nature to identify precursor signals and correlations to better prepare, anticipate and adapt.60 improvements The critical link between disaster management and sustainable development is also recognised as a holistic approach to managing multiple risks from all hazards, which is necessary to achieve resilient development.
DRR ought to be a critical component of development planning, as well as sectoral strategies, programmes and work plans.

Although the damage and losses in some sectors are more visible than others, the recent increasing scale and frequency of hazards in the region have further shown that all sectors should develop an effective approach to reducing disaster risk and Building Back Better (BBB) in the post-disaster recovery realm.
For SVG, resilience also connotes being able to bounce forward quickly in a manner that reduces susceptibility (increased liability to additional harm) to the impact of the same hazard.

In the context of the Lines of Action (pillars of resilience) identified, it should be recognised that the recovery strategy is predicated on addressing issues related to systemic risks in SVG.

This approach is further demonstrated by the nature of the intervention strategies that are proposed.
Through a participatory process involving approximately 65 team members from the public and private sectors, key regional and international organizations and the civil society that participated in the assessment, the key elements that will form the basis for the formulation of a comprehensive recovery strategy were discussed and agreed upon.
This framework agreed upon includes a vision statement, three guiding principles and three strategic intervention lines, in which all the sectoral needs and their cost were determined and integrated into a holistic framework of actions.

The recovery strategy is aligned to all relevant national and sectoral policies, strategy and development plans.
6.2 Vision As indicated above, through a participatory process the below Vision Statement was agreed upon, which has provided the foundation for the formulation of a recovery strategy for the country.
“Rising out of the ash as a resilient climate- responsive society that Equitably stimulates human capabilities, sustainable opportunities, And an improved quality of life.” 6.3 Guiding Principles The following three principles were selected to guide the development and implementation of the Recovery Strategy: • • Build resilience and reduce risks, promoting green/blue economies and energy efficiency.
Ensure equity and accessibility and promote gender equality in decision making, service delivery and recovery.

• Rebuild people’s livelihoods.

60 UN, 2019.


Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 206 6.4 Strategic Lines of Action The alignment of the objectives and outcomes of the recovery strategy three strategic lines of action with identified objectives of the National Economic and Social Development Plan of St. Vincent and the Grenadines is presented in Table 6.1 below.
Table 6.1: Alignment of the Recovery Strategic Lines of Action with National Economic and Social Development Plan 2013-2025 RECOVERY PLAN STRATEGIC LINES of Action NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Objective Outcomes Objective Number (OBJ #) Strategic Line of Action #1: Re-engineering Economic Growth To enhance the country’s economic development agenda in an inclusive and comprehensive manner, by ensuring the sustainability of the productive value chains that incorporate new and better technologies, through the development of effective and efficient governance mechanisms, human capacities and support services, and the strengthening of the financial sector.
1.1 Financial sector mechanisms strengthened and financial and/ or material resources for economic activities required for recovery were provided.

1.2 Economic activities that expand and diversify production chains, save/earn foreign exchange, create employment and expand demand are promoted.

1.3 Governance mechanisms strengthened, and disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) mainstreamed within national, regional, community and sectoral policies, strategies and plans.
1.4 Operational readiness and recovery frameworks strengthened.

OBJ #1.1; and OBJ #1.4 OBJ #1.2; OBJ #1.3; OBJ # 1.5; OBJ #1.8; OBJ #1.9; OBJ #1.10; and OBJ #1.11 OBJ #1.2; OBJ #1.3; OBJ #1.8; and OBJ #1.11 Gaps identified in the Objective matrix for BBB and Building Forward Better (BFB).

Gaps identified in the Objective matrix for BBB and BFB.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 207 Strategic Line of Action #2: Enabled Increased Human and Social Development 2.1 Poverty reduced through the creation of jobs, promotion of income and gender equality, development of an adaptable, functional and literate population, facilitation of cultural and economic development at the community level, and the empowerment of youth to participate meaningfully in and contribute to national development.
To enhance inclusive human and social development in SVG aimed at increasing the quality of life for the entire population, especially the poor.
OBJ #2.1; OBJ #2.1; OBJ #2.3; OBJ #2.5; and OBJ #2.6 2.2 Self-care intervention and healthy lifestyle practices promoted 2.3 Social protection promoted for marginalized and vulnerable groups OBJ #2.4 OBJ #2.8 Strategic Line of Action #3: Improving Physical Infrastructure, Preserving the Environment and Building Resilience to Climate Change To reduce the risk and vulnerabilities of the physical infrastructure to natural disasters and climate-related disruptions by building resilience, and to conserve the natural resources of the country through climate- smart utilization and management 3.1 Risk reduction and resilient infrastructure are promoted in the reconstruction efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to future disasters OBJ #4.2; OBJ #4.4; OBJ #4.10 3.2 Resilience fostered through the safeguarding of physical infrastructure and assets from planning to functional operations and management.
OBJ #4.5; and OBJ #4.9 Details of the recovery strategy, with their respective objectives, outcomes and intervention strategies are presented in table 6.2, under three broad areas • • • Re-engineering Economic growth.

Enabled Increased Human and Social Development.

Improving Physical Infrastructure, Preserving the Environment and Building Resilience to Climate Change.
It is important to note that the recovery strategy is aimed at adding value to the National Economic and Social Development Plan by building back better (BBB) and building forward better (BFB) in the aftermath of the La Soufriere volcanic eruption.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 208 5.5 Next Steps The Post-Disaster Recovery Needs Assessment (PDNA) provides a solid foundation for quantifying damage and loss and estimating recovery needs.
However, it also offers the opportunity to go beyond estimating the costs required for recovery: It provides the basis for the formulation of a realistic recovery framework, based on national priorities and capacities.

The vision, guiding principles and the intervention strategies proposed under the three strategic lines, together with the budgeted recovery needs are the starting point for the formulation of a solid action plan.
It is important to note that another critical aspect of the recovery framework is the identification of an entity to lead the recovery process, which may be a line ministry, or an agency created expressly for that purpose.
In the context of the above, five (5) broad next steps have been identified to provide the blueprint for ensuring an efficient and effective recovery process namely: • Development of an actionable plan for recovery considering the overlapping effects of ongoing Covid-19 and hurricane season early effects.

• Identification of resources gap for funding for the recovery programme.

• Harmonization of the assessment process from humanitarian response to recovery.
• Improvement of data collection and management system.

• Capacity strengthening for recovery.

PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 209 TABLE 6.2: ELEMENTS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES VOLCANIC ERUPTION RECOVERY STRATEGY MATRIX Strategy: To provide a re-engineered landscape that promotes economic growth through diversification of the economy, strengthening of the enabling environment and alleviation of structural constraints that hamper growth potential.
OBJECTIVE OUTCOMES To enhance the country’s economic development agenda in an inclusive and comprehensive manner, by ensuring the sustainability of the productive value chains that incorporate new and better technologies, through the development of effective and efficient governance mechanisms, human capacities and support services, and the strengthening of the financial sector.
0.1 Financial sector mechanisms strengthened and financial and/ or material resources for economic activities required for recovery were provided.

1.2 Economic activities that expand and diversify production chains, save/earn foreign exchange, create employment and expand demand are promoted.

1.3 Governance mechanisms strengthened, and disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) mainstreamed within national, regional, community and sectoral policies, strategies and plans.
1.4 Operational readiness and recovery frameworks strengthened.
Outcome 1.1: Financial sector mechanisms strengthened and financial and/ or material resources for economic activities required for recovery provided OUTPUT INTERVENTION 1.1 Financial Sector strengthened to provide a range of Financial Services to Support the Disaster Risk Management Cycle 1.1.1 Enhance the provision of microcredit for recovery for Small and Medium Enterprises 1.1.2 Strengthen the risk transfer products and mechanisms especially with the domestic insurance industry to improve the national capabilities for serving the country.
1.1.3 Improve the range of financial services provided through strengthening the banking technology, including mobile banking to enhance the speed of the recovery process.

1.1.4 Explore the potential for the establishment of Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) to improve the availability of resources at the community level for recovery61.
1.1.5 Provide financial support to the Ministry of Health to develop a comprehensive long-term storage or warehousing solution to accommodate both routine and emergency supplies 61 61 Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) - a type of local financial institution that has been standardized by CARE and is increasingly being promoted by a host of different organizations - take many of the elements of rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) and add more flexibility in savings and loans, standardize the governance structure and reinforce accountability elements PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 210 Outcome 1.2: Economic activities that expand and diversify production chains, save/earn foreign exchange, create employment and expand demand are promoted OUTPUT INTERVENTION 1.2 Strengthened national economic environment in place that enhances production and contributes to the achievement of the targets established for key macro and microeconomic variables for recovery process.
1.2.1 Provide income support to producers of goods and services in all sectors based on income loss and additional cost incurred as a result of the volcanic eruption 1.2.2 Promote education reform that adequately prepare people for entrepreneurship through the incorporation of business and innovation in the curriculum.

1.2.3 Provide technical support to the productive sectors (agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and trade) to increase their productivity, cost efficiency and competitiveness.
1.2.4 Stimulate growth in the tourism industry by promoting the resilience of yachting industry and resorts of The Grenadines.

1.2.5 Promote the Volcanic Site as a tourist attraction by reinforcing the hiking sites around the Volcano.

1.2.6 Develop and implement a comprehensive plan for recovery and rebuilding of a modern, competitive agricultural sector, including land reform to address critical issues of land use, tenure and distribution.
1.2.7 Provide the policy framework and related fiscal incentives, and necessary infrastructure and market intelligence to build a modern agricultural sector 1.2.8 Strengthen the institutional support and coordination framework (e.g., through contract farming, nucleus/satellite framing) and infrastructural facilities (central collection, grading and packaging) to link farmers to market and ensure consistency in quality and quantity of agricultural products supplied to the growing tourist market 1.2.9 Implement alternative livelihoods initiatives for displaced farm and fisher families and illegal uses of the forest.
1.2.10 Optimize the contribution made by the blue economy, especially the fisheries sub-sector 1.2.11Provide support for agriculture-related production input (Planting materials, fertilizers, chemicals, feeds, veterinary drugs and supplements, etc.).

1.2.12 Provide temporary employment for the cleaning and removal of ashfall, debris and boulders from private and public properties.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 211 Outcome 1.3: Governance mechanisms strengthened, and disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) mainstreamed within national, regional, community and sectoral policies, strategies and plans OUTPUT INTERVENTION 1.3 Clear vision, plans, competence and coordination are in place within SVG, that foster collaboration among institutions in the implementation of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation measures.
1.3.1 Institutional mechanisms for the efficient and effective coordination of DRM and CCA tasks within SVG, including those related to emergency and disaster response issues, strengthened at the national, regional and local/community levels 1.3.2 Define with clarity, roles and responsibilities across all relevant organizations involved in resilience building to ensure better coordination of pre-event planning and preparedness, event response and post-event activities 1.3.3 Strengthen the institutional regulatory frameworks 1.3.4 Develop protocols to guide the involvement of publicly owned, managed or regulated services and the co-option of infrastructures.
1.3.5 Promote and provide incentives, as relevant, for actions by persons, households, communities and businesses in resilience building.
1.3.6 Establish/strengthen the necessary mechanisms and incentives to ensure high levels of compliance with the existing safety- enhancing provisions of sectoral laws and regulations, including those addressing land use and urban planning, building codes, environmental and resource management and health and safety standards, and update them, where needed, to ensure an adequate focus on resilience building.
1.3.7 Enhance the data capture and information management systems at the national, sectoral and institutional levels, to include Sex-and- Age disaggregated data points.

1.3.8 Implement communication and information dissemination strategies on issues related to risk mitigation and develop and implement national-level training programmes in risk assessment, management and administration within the context of a multi-sectoral approach and from a multidisciplinary and multidimensional lens.
1.3.9 Enhance the Information and Early Waring network, including expanding the PAHO and CARPHA supported Early Warning and Response System (EWARS), which is currently being implemented and tested, in the intermediate and long term to boost the existing surveillance mechanisms 1.3.10 Conduct a technical assessment of several logistics supply chain information systems in place in the country, including a pharmaceutical and medical supplies management system, to determine the most practical option to be implemented.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 212 1.3.11 Mainstream DRM and CCA into national, sectoral, district and local development policies, strategies, plans and budgets 1.3.12 Strengthen the existing sustainable sources of fund for resilience building, to include a provision in the DRM policy guidelines of a % of both public and private institutions’ budget dedicated to resilience-building activities 1.3.13 Implement contingency planning and training and establish a Contingency Fund for post-disaster recovery (a “rainy day” fund).
1.3.14 Promote innovative risk transfer tools and instruments to better manage the fiscal impacts of disasters, such as catastrophe bonds and parametric insurance products, as well as alleviate the key constraints to the access of international insurance and capital markets 1.3.15 Review and integrate DRM and CCA considerations integrated into cross-cutting issues such as environmental management and gender equality policies, plans, programs and projects.
1 .3.16 Develop training materials and build national and institutional capacities (private and public sectors) in business continuity protocols and plans.
Outcome 1.4: Operational readiness and recovery frameworks strengthened OUTPUT INTERVENTION 1.4 The Recovery Capacity Assessment 1.4.1 Update relevant Plans, including National Response Plan and process advanced and the National Recovery Framework accelerated in order to guide recovery actions and strengthen the institutional mechanisms to advance the recovery process which is being offered through CDEMA.
conduct a review of the recently updated National Volcano Emergency Plan for robustness 1.4.2 Maintain seismic network across the island to improve monitoring and forecasting capacity for volcanoes and seismic activity 1.4.3 Update risk and vulnerability assessments for flooding, lahars and landslides 1.4.4 Review and enhance national evacuation plans 1.4.5 Provide training in PDNA and DRM at the national and community level 1.4.6 Review DRM Legislative (National Emergency and Disaster Management Act), with a view to update 1.4.7 Conduct Scenario-based simulation exercises to identify gaps and improve procedures PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 213 Strategy: To promote the design, plan, inclusive and equitable economic development agenda that unlocks the full potential of the economy by dismantling barriers and expanding opportunities for all, including the vulnerable and poor implement and sustain an OBJECTIVE OUTCOMES 2 To enhance inclusive human and social development in SVG aimed at increasing the quality of life for the entire population, especially the poor.
2.1 Poverty reduced through the creation of jobs, promotion of income and gender equality, development of an adaptable, functional and literate population, facilitation of cultural and economic development at the community level, and the empowerment of youth to participate meaningfully in and contribute to national development.
2.2 Self-care intervention and healthy lifestyle practices promoted 2.3 Social protection promoted for marginalized and vulnerable groups Outcome 2.1: Poverty reduced through the creation of jobs, promotion of income and gender equality, development of an adaptable, functional and literate population, facilitation of cultural and economic development at the community level, and the empowerment of youth to participate meaningfully in and contribute to national development.
OUTPUT INTERVENTION 2.1 The level of poverty reduced among the population, especially among the vulnerable poor groups 2.1.1 Exploit the opportunities available in building a resilient society to create decent jobs within the context of DRM and CCA programmes and projects 2.1.2 Promote gender equality in the recovery process as it relates to access to resources (land, labour and credit), production inputs and markets 2.1.3 Increase the rate of implementation of capital projects, including those related to the recovery process.
2.1.4 Develop and implement adaptable curricula consistent with the development needs of the country, including the use of ICT in the delivery of the curricula 2.1.5 Facilitate increased social, cultural and economic development at the community level as it relates to the agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism and natural parks sectors/sub-sectors, fish fries, agro-ecotourism and health/organic product solutions.
2.1.6 Empower the youth to participate more meaningfully in and contribute to national development, including the development and implementation of a programme of incentives (increased marketable skills through training, and access to land and credit) to encourage young people into farming 2.1.7 Scale-up community water harvesting, storage and use, including irrigation PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 214 Outcome 2.2: Self-care interventions and healthy lifestyle practices promoted OUTPUT INTERVENTION 2.2 Increased health and productivity of the country’s population 2.2.1 Reassess the primary health care and services with a view for improvement 2.2.2 Review the human resource strategy for nurses and health staff to engage persons trained and unemployed 2.2.3 Promote OECS regional approach to health worker training and exchange along with regional risk-sharing to reduce evacuation and overseas health care costs 2.2.4 Promote the use of telemedicine for sharing key specialists between the islands 2.2.5 Improve the housing and living conditions of the population by increasing homeownership, decreasing homelessness and sub-standard living conditions, reducing the number of squatter settlements, and making the homes more resilient hurricanes and other natural disasters 2.1.6 Reduce the incidence of NCDs by establishing exercise facilities in public and private spaces to increase the wellness and physical fitness of the nation Outcome 2.3: Social protection promoted for marginalized and vulnerable groups62 OUTPUT INTERVENTION 2.3 Enhanced social protection program (SP) designed to build resilience to disasters and climate shocks and natural disasters 2.3.1 Promote effective formal communication channels and linkages among social protection, disaster management, and relevant sectoral ministries/agencies, including those responsible for early warning systems to ensure that a coordinated institutional platform is in place for delivery of benefits 2.3.2 Establish clearly defined roles and
 responsibilities of all ministries/ agencies and other implementing partners, including international, non-governmental, civil society, and private sector organizations to ensure efficiency and effectiveness in the delivery of benefits 2.3.3 Promote linkages and information-sharing arrangements with the broader humanitarian response system, such as the United Nations-led emergency cluster system 2.2.4 Promote scalability and flexibility in the administrative mechanisms used to mobilize and deploy contingency financing and human resources, transfer benefits, manage fiduciary risks, and identify and register affected people 62 Based heavily on the World Bank: Building Resilience to Disasters and Climate Change through Social Protection, 2013 PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 215 2.2.5 Establish a mechanism to ensure the targeting of households that are most vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change-related risk, using a combination of targeting strategies to ensure efficiency and effectiveness in the process 2.2.6 Promote the effective participation in decision making by communities and vulnerable groups 2.2.7 Promote greater community involvement in the design and implementation of inclusive policies and social safety-net mechanisms 2.2.8 Ensure food and nutrition security 2.2.9 Support viable livelihood enhancement programmes at the community and household levels Strategy: To plan, design, build and operate physical infrastructure in a way that anticipates, prepares for, and adapts to risks and vulnerabilities to future natural disasters and related changing climate conditions OBJECTIVE OUTCOMES 3.
To reduce the risk and vulnerabilities of the physical infrastructure to natural disasters and climate-related disruptions by building resilience, and to conserve the natural resources of the country through climate-smart utilization and management 3.1 Risk reduction and resilient infrastructure are promoted in the reconstruction efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to future disasters 3.2 Resilience fostered through the safeguarding of physical infrastructure from planning to functional operations and management.
3.3 The protection of the natural environment is promoted.
3.4 Digital and connectivity gap reduced by strengthening human capital, facilitating connectivity and access to information, raising awareness and generating an innovation culture to promote human, technological, and social development PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 216 Outcome 3.1: Risk reduction and resilient infrastructure are promoted in the reconstruction efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to future disasters OUTPUT INTERVENTION 3.1 Risks to physical infrastructure reduced by locating assets in areas that are less exposed to hazards, and by making the assets better able to cope with disaster impacts when they materialise by making trade-offs between risk minimization and cost, where it becomes more expensive and increasingly technically challenging to prepare for events that are very unlikely to occur.
3.1.1 Repair/rehabilitate, reconstruct and maintain the physical infrastructure of the social sector (education, housing, health), productive sector (Agriculture and Tourism/natural Parks), and infrastructure service networks (Electricity, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene, Transport and Works), with improved resilience to potent new risks and vulnerabilities, utilizing affordable technologies, within the context of building back better.
3.1.2 Specifically for the Transport and Works sector, repair the road infrastructure (Sandy Bay, Chateaubbelair Districts) and river crossing infrastructure in (Georgetown, Sandy Bay and Chateaubbelair Districts) 3.1.3 Develop and where applicable, implement guidelines for the relocation and resettlement of communities located in high risk and vulnerable areas to address issues such as lands, housing, related infrastructure and services, including electrification of new development (relocation) 3.1.4 Develop and implement a plan of action for the rehabilitation/ relocation of agricultural stations/ germplasm plots (Assets and operations) 3.1.5 Implement the Forest and Wildlife Recovery Programme through reforestation, soil conservation, clearing of waterways and stabilisation of stream banks.
Replanting of plantation forests in the lower slopes, such as in Orange Hill.

Protection and conservation of gullies where housing existed, to include agroforestry for the generation of livelihoods for displaced residents.

3.1.6 Update the building codes to account for ashfall during a volcanic eruption as an additional load factor to consider in roofing.

3.1.7 Conduct research and development of agro-ecological models for sustainable commercial agriculture in the red and orange zones.
3.1.8 Introduction of new and appropriate resilient technology and innovation in sectoral assets and production systems 3.1.9 Scale-up community-level water harvesting, storage and irrigation 3.1.10 Implement the interventions outlined in Outcome 1.3 above to strengthen governance mechanisms and mainstreaming disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA)within national, regional, community and sectoral policies, strategies and plan PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 217 3.11 Promote innovation as a fundamental pillar for social and productive transformation, through coordinated and multi- sectoral actions that allow problem-solving through research and development of technologies, among other aspects, such as new materials, adapting production methods and social interactions during disasters Outcome 3.2: Resilience fostered through the safeguarding of physical infrastructure from planning to functional operations and management63 OUTPUT INTERVENTION 3.2 Infrastructure safeguarding is established as part of the planning process, designed to ensure that assets that have been identified for major infrastructure projects are protected from conflicting developments 3.2.1 Accelerate the national and regional building codes enhancement, adaptation and implementation processes 3.2.2 Implement a process of constant review of the teaching and training programmes for built environment services by Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and selected experts 3.2.3 Consolidate for application the efforts of HEIs and others for materials testing and certification systems 3.2.4 Review Built Environment legislation and regulations to address issues of market surveillance, enforcement and accountability 3.2.5 Create incentives for research and development of new materials and services for SMART development, alternate energy, energy efficiency, water resources management, greening and associated areas 3.2.6 Enhance public education and information on safe and resilient communities 63 Based mainly on CEDMA, 2018.
Building a Caribbean Pathway for Disaster Resilience in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 218 Outcome 3.3: The protection of the natural environment is promoted OUTPUT INTERVENTION 3.3 Natural resources and the 3.3.1 Restore forests and biodiversity through more effective existing natural environment are conserved and, where possible, damage is repaired and trends are reversed through the rebuilding of natural assets, restoring access to environmental goods and services, restoring environmental resources that support livelihoods systems, and addressing new and existing challenges management of invasive species, the development of effective valuation system for forest and biodiversity products, and the incorporation of forest and biodiversity contribution to national budgets.
3.3.2 Support the forests and biodiversity restoration process through the cleaning of rivers and streams, especially in the upper watersheds of the red and yellow zones 3.3.3 Enhance soil fertility through the incorporation of ash into the soil, where ash-fall was light; Sustainable application of fertilizers, soil amendments and compost; and Establishment/re-establishment of grass barriers, contour drains, bench terraces 3.3.4 Ensure availability of environmentally sustainable, high-quality and affordable construction materials (sand, aggregate, pumice stone/rocks through the identification of alternative mining sites and establishment of appropriate transportation infrastructure, and production of fine to coarse sands by improving crushing and screening equipment at new and existing mines.
3.3.5 Restore and protect damage marine habitats through the identification of habitats that were affected by the volcanic eruption and the institution of moratorium/temporary no-take areas while the necessary restoration work and monitoring are being undertaken.
3.3.6 Restore and protect aquatic habitats through the conduct of rapid biological assessment of the impacts of the eruption on aquatic life; the initiation of stakeholder engagement plan including education and capacity building to restore tri-tri industry; the identification of harvesting areas, removal logs and derelicts; and the placement of a temporary ban on aquatic fisheries (crayfish) to allow for regeneration 3.3.7 Restore access to forest and non-timber products through the strengthening of forest management and the reintroduction of non-timber products lost to the eruption.
Restore trails and access roads.

2.2.8 Protect pollinators and other keystone species to ensure proper ecosystem functioning through the conduct of biodiversity inventory/census and the promotion of apiculture 3.3.9 Development and enhancement of Ecotourism Product in Rural Communities through capitalizing on unique geological (e.g; through a natural field guide), and the rebuilding of trails and amenities at protected areas/ecotourism sites.
PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 219 3.3.10 Restore access to prime fishing ground and identify alternatives, where necessary, through surveying of fishing grounds, target cleaning of the seabed, and coral restoration.
3.3.11 Strengthen environmental governance by improving the effectiveness of environmental decision-making, improving transparency in the environmental decision-making process, improving environmental awareness and stewardship amongst the general public, and enhancing the legal and institutional framework to combat the environmental drivers of risk and vulnerabilities 3.3.12 Improve waste management, including waste and debris management (removal, transportation, and disposal of debris); ash removal and recovery; hazardous waste separation and establishment of systems for transportation and disposal (especially for e-wastes, ash and rubble); and introduction of incentives for increased recycling of plastics and other recyclables.
3.3.13 Improve surface water management through mapping of changing surface water flows adjusting to new flood zones; monitoring of groundwater quantity, quality and availability; and investigating change in soil stability and water retention 3.3.14 Monitor the quality of the air during the implementation of recovery activities 3.3.15 Strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Health for monitoring environmental conditions and undertaking actions to mitigate against outbreaks of food-water-and vector-borne diseases, including the provision of additional environmental health and vector control officers, vehicles, insecticide application equipment, insecticides, rodenticides, PPEs and communications materials for dissemination of information to the public.
3.3.16 Promote improved enforcement through the development of new and/or the updating of existing legislation in the critical areas such as environmental impact assessment (EIA), waste management and land use, for example phasing out the use of single-use plastics by 2025/2030, and integrated water resource management 3.3.17 Promote greater integration of environmental information in informal education, which is targeted to key groups of stakeholders 3.3.18 Develop incentives to encourage environmentally friendly practices, targeted to the private sector, communities and youth, including sustainable agricultural practices; sustainable forest management practices; mangrove rehabilitation; plastics disposal; recycling; and creation or enhancement of marine habitats PDNA La Soufrière Volcanic Eruption Sector Reports PAGE 220 Outcome 3.4: Digital and connectivity gap reduced by strengthening human capital, facilitating connectivity and access to information, raising awareness and generating an innovation culture to promote human, technological, and social development OUTPUT INTERVENTION 3.4 A digital platform established to 3.4.1 Expand the coverage, access and connectivity of the entire enhance the recovery process by providing for the delivery of essential services such as education and healthcare, the promotion of increased opportunities for women’s empowerment and environmental sustainability, enhanced government transparency and accountability, and the fostering the social development of communities, including within the broader global context.
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