Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1698137294571.pdf (Ireland)
Tithe an Oireachtais Houses of the Oireachtas An Oifig Buiséid Pharlaiminteach Parliamentary Budget Office Government’s proposal to Dáil Éireann for spending on Social Protection in 2021 Vote 37 and the Social Insurance Fund (SIF) in the Revised Estimates for Public Services 2021 A Note…and a Data Visualisation Presentation This Note serves as a ‘gateway’ to our Flourish Data Visualisation presentation on Vote 37 (Social Protection) in Government’s Revised Estimates for Public Services 2021.
By using the presentation you will be able to understand the context and analyse voted spending in a more accessible way than by using a ‘traditional’ publication.

Please launch the Data Visualisation presentation using Firefox, Edge or Chrome.

Reading time is only 10 minutes in total... 9 This Note – a two-minute read; and 9 The Data Visualisation – an eight-minute read.
Key Messages 9 The Revised Estimates for Public Services 2021 (December 2020), projected Social Protection spending (Voted and SIF) in 2021 to be €25.1 billion.

This is €6.4 billion less than in 2020 but an increase of €4 billion on the 2020 spending projected pre- pandemic.

9 A subvention (from Vote 37) to the Social Insurance Fund returned, as a feature of the Estimates process, late last year and is currently budgeted at €0.6 billion in 2021.
The relationship between the Vote and the SIF has been explained by the PBO in Note 21 of 2018.

9 The funds allocated in the Revised Estimates to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) have been already spent.

In addition to the PUP, it is unclear how allocations to other payments will change.

The allocation to the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) is also likely to increase and the allocation to Jobseeker payments may reduce as PUPs are extended.
9 Readers should be aware therefore that the total amount currently proposed for Social Protection will, at least on that basis, be increased by way of a ‘new’ Revised Estimate.

9 The PBO will issue another Note and Flourish when the new Revised Estimate is published but it is unclear when this will be.
PBO Publication 11 of 2021 (and accompanying Data Visualisation) An Oifig Buiséid Pharlaiminteach Parliamentary Budget OfficeTithe an Oireachtais Houses of the OireachtasParliamentary Budget OfficeQuarPBO Publication 11 of 2019Multiannual Expenditure Ceilings:An effective control for spending?Ministerial Expenditure Ceilings act as the baseline for expenditure...Key Messages• Between 2012 and 2017, overall outturn fell within the ceiling only in 2013.• Ministerial Ceilings are revised in the Budget and the Mid-Year Expenditure Report, with a pattern of upward revisions each year, potentially twice per year.• Budget 2019 saw the largest upward revisions over the three-year period for ceilings since they were introduced.• The celing for 2019 was originally set at €53.6 billion in 2016, but has now increased to €59.3 billion.IntroductionThe Medium-Term Expenditure Framework is a set of administratve procedures employed for the management of Voted Current Expenditure over the medium term by way of three-year ceilings.
The legal basis for these ceilings is set out by the Ministers and Secretaries (Amendment) Act 2013 (the Act).

These ceilings were first introduced on an administrative basis in 2012, under the Comprehensive Expenditure Report 2012-2014, and were subsequently place on a legal and procedural footing.

Ceilings are set out in each Budget for the following three years (e.g.

Budget 2019 includes ceilings for 2019, 2020 and 2021).
These ceilings cover Voted Expenditure in addition to the National Training Fund ) and the Social Insurance Fund.

The ceilings are set at an aggregate level, and also at Ministerial Vote Group level.Capital and Current ExpenditureSince 2014, ceilings have been given for both capital and current expenditure in the Budget.

However, the process for setting these ceilings is different.

The capital expenditure ceiling is mostly set and modified as part of the National Development Plan.
Meaning that while the proportional growth in capital expenditure ceilings is very large, changes to capital ceiling tend to be the result of conscious decisions and central planning for the level of capital invest to be made in the coming years.

However, as Figure 2 shows, the relationship is inverted when absolute values are used.
The absolute value of revisions in current expenditure ceilings is significantly larger than those for capital.Key expenditure Departments (Health, Housing, Planning and Local Government, and Education and Skills) appear to treat expenditure ceilings as the baseline for expenditure expectations.

Expenditure ceilings are regularly exceeded by any unforeseen events, efficiencies or overruns in cost.Increase in Expenditure Ceilings 2014-2020, € millions.
- 400 800 1,2002014201520162017201820192020 Why are the Revised Estimates important?

y Even the smallest Vote Group in the Revised Estimates would, in the context of the private sector, be considered a large company in budgetary terms.

Social Protection spending is the largest area of spending set out in the Revised Estimates.

y The Voted spending detailed in the Revised Estimates sets out the bulk of all spending on public services.
Most of the remaining spending is outside of the direct control of central government.1 The spending set out in the Votes allocates the money that is raised through taxation/borrowing and how Government will spend it on providing public services.

y Constitutionally, the sole and exclusive power of making laws for the State is vested in the Oireachtas.
The High Court has stated that budgetary allocation and taxation are key features of the representative duty of each Dáil Deputy.2 The primary way the Dáil undertakes this duty is through the reference of the Revised Estimates for individual Votes to its Select Committees for scrutiny, prior to consideration for approval on the floor of the House.
Voted spending developments prior to the COVID-19 pandemic The PBO Note, An Overview of the Revised Estimates for 2020, sets out pre-pandemic voted spending from 2016-2019 and the originally planned spending for 2020.

It provides context for the level of ‘core’ spending and associated priorities before the Government’s COVID-19 response.

There was a significant increase in voted spending during this period with this spending relatively concentrated in Housing, Transport and Health.
Estimates for Public Services – The Process Dáil Éireann must scrutinise and approve the Revised Estimates for the full budgetary allocation of a Vote to be spent.

Up to 80% only of the proposed allocation for year x-1, as set out in that year’s Appropriations Act, is available until the Revised Estimates for the current year (x) are approved.

Do you want to understand the role of the Oireachtas in the provision of public services?

Click here for a PBO infographic.


The Estimates process is not over when the Revised Estimates are approved: » Some Departments do not spend all the money they are allocated; and » Others regularly under-estimate how much they need, or unexpected events lead to additional spending and thus to Supplementary Estimates.
It is normal practice for the Government to seek a Supplementary Estimate for the payment of a Christmas Bonus to Social Welfare recipients – the PBO has recommended that this information be provided as ‘not for approval’ information note with the Revised Estimate.
1 For more detail about the composition of public expenditure, and why Voted Expenditure makes up the key portion of it for Dáil Scrutiny please see General Government Expenditure: How its composition constrains decisions about government spending.

2 Article 15.2.1 of Bunreacht na hÉireann and Collins v. Minister for Finance [2013] IEHC 530.
2 Tithe an Oireachtais Houses of the Oireachtas An Oifig Buiséid Pharlaiminteach Parliamentary Budget Office The Revised Estimates are published two months after the Estimates for Public Services that accompany the Budget (as part of the Expenditure Report).

They provide greater detail and update the spending proposed in Budget 2021.

This additional information should, in theory, help Dáil select committees when they meet Ministers to scrutinise the public services to be provided in 2021.
The design of the Revised Estimates continues to hamper effective Dáil scrutiny of the money spent on public services.

PBO Publication 5 of 2021 (a 2-minute read) explains why.

Some Departments have made progress in the Revised Estimates 2021 by explicitly linking subheads (money/inputs) to performance information.

The Department of Social Protection has not made such progress.
The bodies/Votes which have made progress are: Department of the Taoiseach (2); Office of Public Works (13); National Shared Services Office (18); Environment, Climate and Communications (29), Enterprise, Trade and Employment (32); Housing, Local Government and Heritage (34); and Army Pensions (35).

The PBO commends this progress which enhances transparency and makes scrutiny of the Revised Estimates by the Dáil and its Committees more straightforward.
The PBO would encourage other Departments to follow such best practice.

PBO@oireachtas.ie www.oireachtas.ie/pbo 18 February 2021 Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for use by the Members of the Houses of the Oireachtas and to aid them in their parliamentary duties.

It is not intended to be comprehensive or definitive.

The PBO may remove, vary or amend any information contained therein at any time without prior notice.
The PBO accepts no responsibility for any references or links to, or the content of, any information maintained by third parties.
An Oifig Buiséid Pharlaiminteach Parliamentary Budget OfficeTithe an Oireachtais Houses of the OireachtasParliamentary Budget OfficeQuarPBO Publication 11 of 2019Multiannual Expenditure Ceilings:An effective control for spending?Ministerial Expenditure Ceilings act as the baseline for expenditure...Key Messages• Between 2012 and 2017, overall outturn fell within the ceiling only in 2013.• Ministerial Ceilings are revised in the Budget and the Mid-Year Expenditure Report, with a pattern of upward revisions each year, potentially twice per year.• Budget 2019 saw the largest upward revisions over the three-year period for ceilings since they were introduced.• The celing for 2019 was originally set at €53.6 billion in 2016, but has now increased to €59.3 billion.IntroductionThe Medium-Term Expenditure Framework is a set of administratve procedures employed for the management of Voted Current Expenditure over the medium term by way of three-year ceilings.
The legal basis for these ceilings is set out by the Ministers and Secretaries (Amendment) Act 2013 (the Act).

These ceilings were first introduced on an administrative basis in 2012, under the Comprehensive Expenditure Report 2012-2014, and were subsequently place on a legal and procedural footing.

Ceilings are set out in each Budget for the following three years (e.g.

Budget 2019 includes ceilings for 2019, 2020 and 2021).
These ceilings cover Voted Expenditure in addition to the National Training Fund ) and the Social Insurance Fund.

The ceilings are set at an aggregate level, and also at Ministerial Vote Group level.Capital and Current ExpenditureSince 2014, ceilings have been given for both capital and current expenditure in the Budget.

However, the process for setting these ceilings is different.

The capital expenditure ceiling is mostly set and modified as part of the National Development Plan.
Meaning that while the proportional growth in capital expenditure ceilings is very large, changes to capital ceiling tend to be the result of conscious decisions and central planning for the level of capital invest to be made in the coming years.

However, as Figure 2 shows, the relationship is inverted when absolute values are used.
The absolute value of revisions in current expenditure ceilings is significantly larger than those for capital.Key expenditure Departments (Health, Housing, Planning and Local Government, and Education and Skills) appear to treat expenditure ceilings as the baseline for expenditure expectations.

Expenditure ceilings are regularly exceeded by any unforeseen events, efficiencies or overruns in cost.Increase in Expenditure Ceilings 2014-2020, € millions.

- 400 800 1,2002014201520162017201820192020