Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697798866376.pdf (Dominica)
VOL 7 ISSUE 03 JUNE-JULY-AUGUST YEAR 2022 Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary Previous Season Forecast; Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 2022– Uncertainty existed in the rainfall, number of wet days and minimum temperature forecasts.

Daytime highs were likely to be cooler than usual.

MAM Observed: The accumulated rainfall totals were normal at both airports.

Daytime temperatures were as warm as usual unlike the forecast while night-time temperatures were as cool as usual.
Current Season Forecast; Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 2022– Medium confidence that rainfall total for the period is likely to be below normal.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be as usual.

Above normal accumulation is likely in SON The 2022 Dry Season There were some deficits in rainfall accumulation during the early dry season (DJF), but significant showers during the second half of the season (MAM) brought totals to normal levels.

Saharan dust was frequent from February.


Canefield Airport:  By the end of May, 422.2mm/ 16.62in of rainfall was recorded, which is normal.

Highest monthly total was 129.8mm/ 5.11in in March, which is climatologically the driest month.

April was the lowest, 40.0mm/ 1.57in.


Maximum daily rainfall was 26.1mm/ 1.03in observed April 29th;  There was an 8-day dry spell in April and a 10-days dry spell in May;  Daytime and night-time temperatures were as usual for the season with an average maximum of 31°C/ 88°F and minimum of 22°C/ 72°F, respectively.

Douglas-Charles Airport:  Normal rainfall was recorded, a total of 807.8mm/ 31.80in.

April was the wettest with 234.5mm/ 9.23in while May was the driest with 94.4mm/ 3.72in.
;  Maximum daily rainfall was 156.mm/ 6.14in observed April 29th which resulted in localized floods;  There was a 5-day dry spell in April and 10-day dry spell in May;  Daytime temperatures were as warm as usual while night-time temperatures were cooler than usual, with an average maximum of 29.0C/ 84F and average minimum of 22.1°C/ 72°F, respectively.
1 Looking Back Parameters Canefield Airport Douglas-Charles Airport OBSERVATIONS FOR MAR-APR-MAY (MAM) 2022 Rainfall (30 years) Accumulated rainfall 207.0mm/ 8.15in (normal) 446.1mm/ 17.56in (normal) Wet Days 7-Day Dry Spells 33 (normal) 2 Temperature (15 years) 44 (normal) 1 Average Maximum 31.2°C/ 88°F (usual) 29.2°C/ 84°F (usual) Mean 27.0°F C/ 81°F (usual) 25.9°C/ 79°F (usual) Average Minimum 22.9°C/ 73°F (usual) 22.8°C/ 73°F (usual) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2022 INFLUENCING FACTORS • Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below –1.0°C; La Niña conditions have maintained into the middle of 2022.
The models forecast La Niña conditions may persist into SON.

La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season and higher tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic Basin.

• Warmer than usual SSTs above 1°C have persisted around the northern Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic.

Models are forecasting observed SST to remain anomalously warm.
Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall RAINFALL FORECAST Dry weather conditions are likely to persist into the early part of the wet season.
 Below normal to near normal rainfall accumulation is likely  Slight decline in the number of wet days is possible, particularly on the west coast  No significant increase from the normal in the number of wet days or wet spells is expected,  However, one 7 day very wet spell which could result in localized floods is likely, particularly towards August • While drought is not of much concern during this period, a 7- day dry spell is likely during the early part of the season 2 TEMPERATURE FORECAST  Temperatures are expected to become warmer as the Caribbean Heat Season continues; a more humid heat sensation is expected  Daytime highs and night-time lows are likely to be as usual Parameters Normal Wet Days Normal 7-day Wet Spells Normal Average Maximum Mean Average Minimum CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) Canefield Airport Rainfall (30 years) 474.2mm to 756.8mm 49 to 66 4 to 7 Temperature (15 years) 32.2 to 32.5°C 28.2 to 28.5°C 24.1 to 24.6°C Douglas-Charles Airport 544.4mm to 768.5mm 53 to 68 2 to 6 30.7 to 31.2°C 27.7 to 28.1°C 24.7 to 25.1°C 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Above normal season supported by: • An ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, • warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, • weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and • an enhanced west African monsoon which seeds many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.
PREPARE EARLY AND KNOW YOUR RISKS, TO BE HURRICANE RESILIENT AND CLIMATE READY !

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3 SECTORAL IMPLICATIONS TOURISM  Expect an increase in demand for cooling/ hydration services.

Advise guests accordingly  Minimize skin exposure to direct sunlight, particularly during 10am and 3pm.

Wear sun- screen and protective clothing outdoors  Most source markets are experiencing summer conditions except northern Europe.
Operators should themselves through customer service and activities focus on differentiating innovative packages, memorable  Prepare facilities for potential impacts of tropical cyclone AGRICULTURE on-farm  Maintain management plans for persistent dry spells.
These may include: drought 1) Selecting drought tolerant crops and varieties and planting them with careful thought of the availability of water resources; 2) Identifying alternate water sources for irrigation and other on farm activities; 3) Employing water management techniques such as irrigation scheduling and mulching; 4) Refraining from transplanting in extreme hot con- ditions which can cause wilting and even death.

HEALTH  Keep cool and hydrated.


 Water availability, which is critical for hygiene and sanitization purposes during the COVID-19 pandemic, is not expected to be a concern.

 Continue wearing face masks and ensure they are breathable.

Avoid crowds during hot days and if feeling ill.

Remove masks in a private space.

Sweaty masks should be changed.

 Manage water storage containers properly to reduce mosquito breeding areas and incidents of vector-borne Chikungunya and Zika.
Dengue, diseases such as  Saharan dust incursions will be frequent.

Symptoms of respiratory illnesses may increase HYDROLOGY  With normal rainfall forecast, river discharge should remain stable or slightly increase during the next three months.

Rainfall occurrences would be the cause of any rise in river discharge  While river water levels are likely to remain rather low during the period, a rainy event would result in sudden increases in river water levels.
 During a rainstorm event, surface runoff is expected  Employ proper drainage on farms for excessive  During persistent and heavy rains, expect rivers to rainfall events overflow onto surrounding areas low-lying roads, bridges and MOON PHASES Jun: FQ 7th, FM 14th , LQ 19th, NM 28th Jul: FQ 6th, FM 13th, LQ 19th, NM 28th Aug: FQ 5th, FM 11th, LQ 19th, NM 27th Ponding on uneven ground occurrence  is a common  The public should pay attention to the daily Disclaimer: The Dominica Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, com- pleteness, reliability or suitability of this newsletter and will not be held liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
The infor- mation is free for use with the understanding that content may not be modified and presented as original material.

weather forecasts and 3-day outlooks For Regional Sectoral Bulletins (Agriculture, Health and Tourism).

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