Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697799036005.pdf (Dominica)
VOL 4 ISSUE 02 April - July YEAR 2019 Brief Summary Previous season; Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) 2019– Forecast for below normal rainfall accumulations was verified.

Canefield had 3 consecutive months of below normal rainfall which is considered a meteorological drought.

Temperatures, particularly daytime temperatures, were warmer than average, more so by March.

Current season; Apr-May-Jun-Jul (AMJJ) 2019- Drought Warning is now in Effect for the western coastal re- gion of Dominica!!
Short-term drought is evolving in these areas.

While uncertainties for rainfall accumu- lations exist early in the season, probabilities for below normal accumulations are higher going into the wet season.

Both day and night-time temperatures across the Caribbean are likely to be as warm as usual but not uncomfortable.
REVIEW OF JAN-FEB-MAR 2019 Canefield Airport and areas on the west coast had begun observing below normal monthly totals from January and a record low 15.3mm/ 0.6in was recorded at Canefield, in January.

Rainfall at Douglas-Charles was normal for January, however, both February and March were below normal.

A significant reduction in rainfall to- tals were observed at other stations, as the season progressed.

Soil moisture on the west coast is significantly lower than the interior of the island.
Any further rainfall deficits will most likely result in an agricultural drought if preventative/ conservative measures are not put in place.

IN THIS ISSUE LB: lower normal rainfall boundary UB: upper normal rainfall boundary 1 2018 2019 Declining soil moisture trend at Salisbury, on the west coast, from October 2018 to March 2019.

Purple line indicates start of 2019.


SEASONAL RAINFALL AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR APR-MAY-JUN-JUL (AMJJ) 2019 DROUGHT WARNING IN EFFECT Climatologically, on average, Dominica and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean islands are well into the second half of the 2019 dry season.

By May, weather conditions may begin to change as the island transitions into the wet season.

The rate of transition is dependent on the atmospheric and marine signals which exist at this time.
Global models forecast El Niño to persist through the remainder of this dry season and into the wet season.

Short term drought that impacts soil moisture and surface water is being felt and is expected to continue.

If this does occur, there will likely be a late start to the wet season and an extension and worsening of drought condi- tions in the greater impacted areas.

However, island wide, extreme drought conditions such as the 2009/10 and 2014/15 droughts are not anticipated.
An El Niño forecast into the wet season is also an indicator of possible be- low to normal hurricane forecasts.

Dominica Dominica Limited recharge of large water reservoirs up until May due to the usual small number of wet spells during the dry season and slower than usual onset of wet season.

While slightly fewer wet days and wet spells are fore- cast it does not mean that getting one extreme wet spell is improbable during the wet season.

February to July 2019 Continue to monitor and conserve water!!
Protect resources!!

2 Dominica Dominica AMJJ night-time (minimum) and day-time (maximum) temperatures are likely to be warmer than usual, particular- ly as the season progresses beyond May.

Caribbean heat season runs from May to October.
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR AMJ Accumulated Rainfall (30 years) Canefield Airport 181.5 to 373.9mm 27 to 43 1 to 3 NA Temperature (15 years) Douglas-Charles Airport 248.3 to 390.8mm 41 to 63 1 to 5 0 to 3 31.1 to 31.9°C 27.4 to 28.0 °C 23.4 to 24.0°C 29.8 to 30.3°C 26.8 to 27.3°C 23.9 to 24.2°C SECTORAL IMPLICATIONS Parameters Normal Wet days 7 day wet spell 7 day dry spell Average Maximum Mean Average Minimum HYDROLOGY  Further reduction in river discharge is not anticipated.
This is the volume of water flowing through a river channel at any given point and is measured mainly in cubic meters per second.

Discharge levels during this season is expected to remain similar to last season (JFM).

 Low river flows during the season will continue to make river measurements using the Float Method difficult.

 The rivers are not expected to rise to flood levels during the season.
However, nearing the wet season, any significant rainfall event may result in infiltration excess overland flow, particularly on the west coast where the soil is drier and more compact.

This means that little rainfall will be absorbed by the soil but will flow mostly above ground.

 No significant change is expected in soil moisture content until the start of wet season.

3 AGRICULTURE  Water conservation techniques such as mulching and water management practices like irrigation should be employed.
 Drought tolerant varieties and adequately managed crop areas should be considered.

 Farmers and other member of the public should protect themselves from heat exposure as daytime tempera- tures are likely to be higher  Adequate and increased shading and water may be required for livestock.

TOURISM  Tourism facilities should upgrade/ enhance their water conservation practices through rain water harvesting and the repair of leaky pipes should be undertaken.
Guests should be advised on water conservation meth- ods.

 All including visitors should apply high SPF sunscreen lotion regularly and seek shaded areas between the hours of 10am and 3pm.

 River tubing may also be affected with a decrease in the volume of water flowing through the channel.
 Tourism practitioners should expect an increase in the demand for cooling/ hydration services (air condition- ing use, drinking water)  Frequency of outdoor activity disruptions due to rainfall should be increasing towards June, start of wet sea- son.

 Sea -surface temperatures in the region are not so warm to trigger heat stress and coral bleaching.

This is a good season to engage in coral reef restoration activities.
HEALTH  Increased temperatures and low humidity will maintain a high potential for bush fires particularly on the west coast.

 The intrusion of Saharan Dust normally increases towards the end of the season.

This increases the likelihood of asthma and allergic reactions in susceptible persons.

 As a result of possible increased usage of containers for storing water, households should give careful atten- tion to the management of these containers which includes properly covering drums, barrels etc.
These con- tainers could also serve as breeding grounds for mosquitos.

For Regional Sectoral Bulletins (Agriculture, Health and Tourism).

Visit: https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/ DOMINICA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 4