Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697800334345.pdf (Dominica)
YEAR 2016 VOL 1 ISSUE 04 OCTOBER—DECEMBER ENSO NEUTRAL VS LA NIÑA Observations done in August 2016 showed Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies at weak La Niña (-0.54).

(See figure 1 below).

Figure 2. shows the probabilities for La Niña are between 50% and 70% from Sep- tember-November through to December-February 2016-17, then drops into the 40s during the latter and below 25% from March-May 2017 onward.
The probability for neutral conditions rises to 50% for November-January and December-February, and still higher thereafter.

Source: (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov & .iri.columbia.edu) Figure 1 Figure 1 Figure 2 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season hurricanes.

At the end of September 2016, there were 13 name storms, 5 hurricanes of which 2 were major hurricanes .
In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the ini- tial outlook issued in May.

The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.

Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes.
The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurri- canes, and 1–4 major hurricanes.

The seasonal averag- es are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major 1 Record breaking Hurricane Matthew LOOKING BACK Hurricane Matthew the 13th named storm of the formed about 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season 150miles south of Dominica as a tropical storm.

Tropi- cal-storm-force winds extended outwards up to 205 miles primarily to the northeast of the center.
The island was placed under a tropical storm warning on the 28th of September at 11am.

Matthew generated maximum wind gust of 58mph with 109.2mm/ 4.30in of rainfall at the Canefield Airport and 53mph winds and 47.5mm/ 1.87in of rainfall at the Douglas-Charles Airport.

Matthew went on to becoming a dangerous category 5 hurricane causing 100s of deaths and destructions in Haiti and neighbouring islands.
In fact, before all is said and done, Matthew may be one of the longest-lived Atlantic major hurricanes (category 3 or stronger) in the past 50 years of satellite records.

Matthew's resilience has been due to a relative lack of wind shear (a change in wind speed and/or direction with height) and lack of dry air around the system.
Canefield Accumulated Rainfall Douglas-Charles Accumulated Rainfall Dec 2015 -Nov 2016 Fig 3 Above normal Dec 2015 -Nov 2016 Fig 4 Below normal Fig 3 illustrates that at Canefield climatologically 1355.7mm of rainfall is recorded by the end of September.

At the end of September 2016 at total of 1408.4mm was recorded.

Fig 4 illustrates that at Douglas-Charles climatologically 1984.5mm of rainfall is recorded by the end of September.

At the end of September 2016 at total of 1813.7mm was recorded.
2 Parameter Month Weather Summary for July—August– September 2016 Douglas-Charles Airport Canefield Airport July August September July August September Rainfall total 197.4mm 194.3mm 280.1mm 250.0mm 152.2mm 248.9mm Temperature (avg) 29.0°C 29.2°C 27.5°C 29.2°C 29.5°C 29.1°C -maximum 32.1°C (15th ) 32.3°C (23rd) 32.3°C (22nd ) 34.0°C (7th ) 34.6°C (8th) 34.4°C (27th) -minimum 23.3°C (18th ) 23.0°C (22nd) 22.4°C (4th ) 22.7°C (18th) 23.1°C (10th ) 22.5°C (7th) Wind ESE @ 8kts ESE @ 7kts ESE @ 7kts SE @ 4kts SSE @ 4kts SSE@ 4kts Relative Humidity 76% 76% 78% Sunshine hours 8hrs 6mins 8hrs 36mins 7hrs 12mins 67% - 68% - 71% - LOOKING AHEAD (Climatological averages for October-November-December) Douglas-Charles Airport (1981-2010) Canefield Airport (1982-2011) Parameter Month Rainfall normal -highest total -lowest total Temperature -maximum October 249.6 to 358.0mm 644.9mm (1998) 94.2mm (1991) 28.2°C 33.9°C (2015) November 241.9 to 376.3mm December 140.7 to 209.6mm 912.0mm (2004) 631.4mm (2001) 439.1mm (1985) October 137.2 to 213.3mm November 127.5 to 252.6mm 438.3mm (1984) 97.2mm (1983) 66.5mm (2015) 27.6mm (1992) 28.4mm (2001) 27.4°C 32.8°C (1999) 26.6°C 31.1°C (1987) 28.5°C 35.5°C (2015) 27.8°C 33.8°C (2013) December 76.7 to 113.6mm 294.2mm (2013) 23.8mm (2010) 26.9°C 32.4°C (1997/2003) 18.0°C (1991) -minimum 17.2°C (1995) 18.9°C (2010) 16.9°C (1991) 20.8°C (1994) 19.4°C (2008) Wind ESE @6kts ESE @6kts ESE @7kts SSE @ 4kts SE @ 4kts SE @ 5kts Chance of 5 day dry spell 24% 27% 31% 68% 77% 93% REGIONAL OVERVIEW ON
 SEASONAL FORECASTS FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2016 Rainfall Outlook OND 2016 Wet Days Frequency 3 There is uncertainty for rainfall amounts for Dominica for the period October- November-December 2016.
Chanc- es are that rainfall totals will most likely be that of climatological averages.

Probability: 33% chance of above nor- mal; 33% chance normal; 33% chance of below normal.

More wet days than normal (high confidence) are fore- cast for the period.

This will in turn result in an increase in disruptions of outdoor activities due to increase rainfall days.

There are no drought concerns for the period.


Wet Spells Outlook OND 2016 7-day Wet Spells Frequency Shift Forecast: More 7-day wet spells and very wet spells with no significant shift in the amount of 3-day extreme wet spells.

(medium confidence.)

Coral Bleaching Alert Area and Outlook Temperature Outlook Air temperatures are expected to be above to nor- mal.

Night and day-time temperatures are ex- pected to be warmer.
DOMINICA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Canefield / Douglas-Charles Airports A bleaching Alert Level 1-2 is predicted for the Caribbe- an in 1-4 weeks.

Thermal stress conditions are predict- ed to return to below bleaching levels in 17-20 weeks (Jan).

ALERT LEVEL 2: Widespread bleaching and some mortal- ity expected.

Contact: Email:metoffice@cwdom.dm/ metoffcan@cwdom.dm; Website: www.weather.gov.dm.

Tel.

(767) 4491990/4457878 4