Source document: https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1697637874216.pdf (Australia)
FARMER POWER SUBMISSION Regarding the Adequacy of Australia’s biosecurity measures and response preparedness, particularly in respect to foot-and-mouth disease In 2013 ABARES Produced the following report Direct economic impacts of a foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease incursion in Australia, An update of ABARES 2013 estimate Updated estimate A large multi-state foot and mouth disease outbreak has an estimated direct economic impact over 10 years of around $80 billiona(in $2020-21 with a 3% discount rate).
aABARES 2022 estimate based on Buetre et al.

(2013) updating for current industry conditions and adopting the discounting approach outlined in Hone et al.

(2022).

Background In 2013, ABARES estimated the direct economic impact of a large multi-state outbreak to be $52 billion over 10 years at a 7% discount rate.

• The outbreak, as modelled using the AusSpread epidemiological model, is assumed to have already spread from Victoria to all eastern states by the time of detection.
• The disease is assumed to be eradicated in 5 months from detection at a cost of $0.37 billion.

• The estimated impacts are largely due to a slow recovery in market access.

By year 10 export market access is 80% for beef, 87% for pork and 92% sheep meat.

For the updated estimate to reflect changes in industry structure and economic conditions since 2013 adjustments have been made to reflect changes in the value of industry output.
In addition, it is also appropriate for the discount rate used in calculating present values to be changed to 3%, from 7% used in the original study (as described in Hone et al.

2022).

Adequacy of Australia’s biosecurity measures and response preparedness, in particular with respect to foot-and-mouthdisease and varroa miteSubmission 8 Adequacy of Australia’s biosecurity measures and response preparedness, in particular with respect to foot-and-mouthdisease and varroa miteSubmission 8