Quantification of rate of coronary artery disease progression by a new method of angiographic analysis. To assess the rate and variability of atherostenosis progression in patients with coronary artery disease at baseline angiography, we used a simplified quantitative method of analysis to study single angiograms in 54 patients and paired angiograms in 29 patients. All discrete lesions were identified, then traced and digitized to determine lumen diameter (LD), and summed to give the total LD; the differences in LD for paired angiograms were summed to give total stenosis change (TSC). The following results were obtained: Correlation between LD measured by our method and LD determined by the Brown/Dodge method was excellent (r = 0.99, N = 54). There also was a high correlation between interobserver (r = 0.98, N = 54) and intraobserver (r = 0.99, N = 54) findings. Short-term TSC (N = 9, angiograms paired at less than 1 week) was negligible (0.03 +/- 0.38 mm). Long-term (N = 20, angiograms paired at 0.6 to 4.3 years) total LD differed significantly from baseline total LD (4.1 +/- 2.5 mm vs 6.0 +/- 3 mm; p less than 0.001), and TSC (2.0 +/- 1.3 mm) in long-term patients differed significantly from TSC in short-term patients (p less than 0.001). These results show that true coronary disease progression occurring over 1 to 4 years can be distinguished from intraobserver, interobserver, and interstudy variability by means of a simplified method and provide approximate rates and variability of progression. These results will be useful for power calculations in therapeutic trials aimed at slowing progression. Further prospective studies with the use of this method appear indicated. 