Patent ID: 9633359
Date: 2017-04-25
CPC Classifications: G05B,G05D,G06Q

Claim:
1. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing computer-executable instructions that, when executed, cause one or more processors to perform acts comprising: receiving data from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements of an electrical grid; filtering the data according to a ramp rate filter test and a load level filter test; smoothing the filtered data according to an augmented Savitzky-Golay filter; removing bias from the smoothed filtered data using a lift multiplier that is based at least in part on a ratio of two Savitzky-Golay moving averages, wherein the removal of bias comprises multiplication of different data by different lift multipliers over different periods of time to thereby estimate loads on the electrical grid over the different periods of time, wherein the lift multiplier is described by: wherein W terms are Savitzky-Golay smoothing weights, d is a day, D is a number of days, and j is an iterative variable, and wherein the bias is removed at least in part by operation of the lift multiplier by Lift passing the filtered, smoothed and bias-removed data to a near-term forecast model to generate a near-term load forecast; generating, based at least in part on a ramp rate forecast model, a ramp rate forecast; combining the near-term load forecast and the ramp rate forecast with a short-term forecast to generate a blended forecast; outputting the blended forecast to one or more applications configured to control a spinning reserve, wherein the spinning reserve defines generating capacity that is available from one or more generators that are already connected to the electrical grid; and controlling, by the one or more applications and based at least in part on the blended forecast, a level of power generation by managing a size of the spinning reserve, the managing the size of the spinning reserve comprising at least one of increasing a power output of the one or more generators that are already connected to the electrical grid or by decreasing the power output of the one or more generators that are already connected to the electrical grid.