Patent ID: 9691046
Date: 2017-06-27
CPC Classifications: G06Q

Claim:
1. A method for planning programs having several year planning horizons to generate go/no-go decisions to launch, continue, or change such programs, comprising: a computer readable device including instructions that, when processed enable using backcasting to solicit input from stakeholders to identify, a. program goals, b. given the program goals as input determine and record obstacles to achieving the program goals, c. given the obstacles to program goals as input determine and record accomplishments to overcome obstacles to the program goals d. given accomplishments that overcome obstacles as inputs determine and record successive obstacles and accomplishments until no obstacles remain, resulting in a tree representation with the program goal as the root and accomplishments as subordinate branches, and e. given the accomplishments determine and record the actions required to realize each of the accomplishments for the program; f. generating an activity in an activity network diagram-for each action; g. generating a milestone in an activity network diagram for each accomplishment; h. soliciting input from stakeholders for estimating the durations of the actions, where the durations are treated as random variables with probability distributions based on a determination of exogenous factors and influences that impact action durations; i. performing Monte Carlo simulations for durations of the activity network diagram as well as costs and benefits that are also treated as random variables in order to generate quantitative financial metrics that are random variables with probability distributions; j. processing the metrics to determine confidence levels for performance levels; and k. generating a go/no-go decision for the program based on the confidence levels.