Patent ID: 9390069
Filing Date: 2016-07-12
CPC Classification: G01R,G06F,G06N

Claim Text:
1. A electrical apparatus estimating device comprising: a data obtaining section including at least a voltmeter and an ammeter configured to obtain time series data on a total value of current consumed by a plurality of electric apparatuses, wherein the voltmeter and the ammeter are located on a secondary side of a distribution board; and a microprocessor including a parameter estimating section configured to: obtain a model parameter when states of operation of said plurality of electric apparatuses are modeled by a stochastic model on a basis of the obtained time series data, wherein in a parameter estimating process based on an algorithm which alternately calculates expectation and maximizes likelihood, under constraint conditions that converted values or a vector of an observation parameter W(m) corresponding to a pattern of a current waveform of a factor m of said stochastic model are nonnegative, said stochastic model maximizes a likelihood function as a degree of said stochastic model describing a pattern of the total value of said consumed current indicated by said time series data, whereby said parameter estimating section obtains the observation parameter W(m) as said model parameter, and adjust the model parameter, when new time series data is obtained, to minimize an error between said pattern of the current waveform of said factor m and said pattern of the total value of said consumed current indicated by said time series data for all factors; and a state predicting section predicting a state of said factor at a future time after passage of a predetermined time from a present time; and a controlling section controlling at least one electric apparatus of the plurality of electric apparatuses, which are located on the secondary side of the distribution board, based on a result, from the state predicting section, of a prediction of the state of said factor at the future time.