Patent ID: 11966869
Assignee: MCKINSEY & COMPANY, INC.
Field: IT methods for management (Electrical engineering)
Classification: CPC G | IPC G

Claim 0:
1. A system for simulating an impact of qualitative assumptions on a risk model, the system comprising:
one or more processors;
an assumption database configured to store a plurality of assumption objects, wherein the plurality of assumption objections include quantitative assumption objects and qualitative assumption objects, wherein assumption objects include an indication of a relationship to other assumption objects stored in the assumption database, quantitative assumption objects include indications of distribution function parameters associated with the assumption object, and qualitative assumption objects include an indication of an impact on a parent quantitative assumption; and
one or memories configured to store (i) a risk model that includes a hierarchical tree formed of component assumption objects having respective parent-child relationships, and (ii) computer executable instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the system to present a user interface comprising:
a plurality of indications of the qualitative assumption objects stored in the assumption database;
a plurality of first user interface elements respectively corresponding to the plurality of indications, wherein the user interface elements enable a user to enable or disable a corresponding qualitative assumption;
a second user interface element that, when selected, causes the system to execute a simulation of the risk model, wherein (i) the simulation excludes disabled qualitative assumption objects and (ii) to execute the simulation, the instructions, when executed, cause the system to:
determine a number of iterations of the risk model to simulate;
obtain a number of samples from distribution functions of the child quantitative assumption objects, wherein the samples respectively correspond to an iteration of the simulation;
adjust sampled values of the parent quantitative assumption objects by the impact corresponding to enabled child qualitative assumption objects;
perform, using corresponding adjusted sampled values, the number of iterations;
apply a regression analysis to outcomes of the iterated simulations to generate a distribution function corresponding to the risk model; and
present, via the user interface, an indication of the generated distribution function.