Patent ID: 11966869
Assignee: MCKINSEY & COMPANY, INC.
Field: IT methods for management (Electrical engineering)
Classification: CPC G | IPC G

Claim 10:
11. A computer-implemented method for simulating an impact of qualitative assumptions on a risk model that includes a plurality of assumption objects, wherein the plurality of assumption objections include quantitative assumption objects and qualitative assumption objects, wherein assumption objects include an indication of a relationship to other assumption objects, quantitative assumption objects include indications of distribution function parameters associated with the assumption object, and qualitative assumption objects include an indication of an impact on a parent quantitative assumption, wherein the risk model includes a hierarchical tree formed of component assumption objects having respective parent-child relationships, the method comprising:
receiving, by one or more processors, an indication of whether or not qualitative assumption objects included in the hierarchical tree are enabled; and
executing, by the one or more processors, a simulation of the risk model, wherein (i) the simulation excludes disabled qualitative assumption objects and (ii) executing the simulation includes:
determining a number of iterations of the risk model to simulate;
obtaining, by the one or more processors, a number of samples from distribution functions of child quantitative assumption objects, wherein the samples respectively correspond to an iteration of the simulation;
adjusting, by the one or more processors, sampled values of the parent quantitative assumption objects by the impact corresponding to enabled child qualitative assumption objects;
performing, using corresponding adjusted sampled values by the one or more processors, the number of iterations;
applying, by the one or more processors, a regression analysis to outcomes of the iterated simulations to generate a distribution function corresponding to the risk model; and
presenting, by the one or more processors, a user interface that includes an indication of the generated distribution function.