Patent ID: 11880014
Assignee: SHANDONG UNIVERSITY
Field: Measurement (Instruments)
Classification: CPC G  Y | IPC G

Claim 0:
1. A prediction method for changes of physical parameters after earthquakes, comprising:
obtaining a precipitable water vapor after an earthquake in a target monitoring area during a historical period;
verifying accuracy of the precipitable water vapor collected in the historical period;
wherein the step of verifying the accuracy of the precipitable water vapor collected in the historical period comprises:
unifying elevations of the precipitable water vapor derived from a BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, the precipitable water vapor derived from radiosonde, and the precipitable water vapor derived from ERA5 reanalysis;
calculating a first root mean square error (RAISE) between the precipitable water vapor obtained by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System and the precipitable water vapor obtained by radiosonde; and
calculating a second RMSE between the precipitable water vapor obtained by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System and the precipitable water vapor obtained by ERA5 reanalysis data;
wherein if the first RMSE and the second RMSE are within a set range, it means an accuracy of a BeiDou Navigation Satellite System-precipitable water vapor (BDS-PWV) inversed by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System passed a verification; otherwise, the verification is not passed;

obtaining thermal anomaly data of land surface temperature after the earthquake in the target monitoring area during the historical period;
based on historical thermal anomaly data of the land surface temperature and the historical precipitable water vapor of verified accuracy, determining a time difference between a peak value of the precipitable water vapor and a peak value of a thermal anomaly of the land surface temperature; and
when the earthquake occurs again in the target monitoring area, detecting a time point corresponding to the peak value of the thermal anomaly of the land surface temperature in the target monitoring area, adding the time point to the time difference to obtain a predicted time point of the peak value of the precipitable water vapor, and outputting the predicted time point as a time point of secondary disaster occurrence.