Patent ID: 11915583
Assignee: HERE GLOBAL B.V.
Field: Control (Instruments)
Classification: CPC G | IPC G

Claim 15:
16. A method for predicting future traffic for a roadway, the method comprising:
updating a geographic database including directions of travel by vehicles while the vehicles are traveling;
receiving road network data from the geographic database in a first road network format describing a road network including a plurality of road links and a plurality of intersections, wherein the first road network format includes graph edges for the plurality of road links and graph nodes for the plurality of intersections;
converting, by a processor, the road network data in the first road network format to a second road network format describing the road network by analyzing a direction of travel by the vehicles between at least one pair of the plurality of road links in the first road network format, wherein the second road network format includes graph edges for the plurality of intersections and graph nodes for the plurality of road links;
selecting, by the processor, a road link from the plurality of road links in the second road network format;
calculating, by the processor, a related link subset from the plurality of road links for the selected road link;
querying, by the processor, historical data for the related link subset from the geographic database;
calculating, by the processor, a predicted traffic level for the selected road link in response to the historical data for the related link subset;
accessing a prior patterns data set for the related link subset, accessing an epoch traffic pattern data set for the related link subset, and accessing a state transition data set for the related link subset, wherein a probability Eti of the selected road link (i) at time (t) that the predicted traffic level has a state Xt based on the related link subset (MB) is calculated according to:

Eti=arg Max[P(MBt-k|Xt)·P(Xt-k|Xt)·P(Xt)],

wherein a first probability P(MBt-k|Xt) is determined from the prior patterns data set, a second probability P(Xt-k|Xt) is determined from the epoch traffic pattern data set and a third probability P(Xt) is determined from the state transition data set; and
modifying, by the processor, a route generation in response to the predicted traffic level.