Patent ID: 11880014
Assignee: SHANDONG UNIVERSITY
Field: Measurement (Instruments)
Classification: CPC G  Y | IPC G

Claim 8:
9. A prediction system for physical parameter changes after earthquakes, comprising:
a first acquisition module, configured to obtain a precipitable water vapor after an earthquake in a target monitoring area during a historical period; and
an accuracy verification module, configured to verify an accuracy of the precipitable water vapor collected in the historical period;
wherein verifying the accuracy of the precipitable water vapor collected in the historical period comprises:
unifying elevations of the precipitable water vapor derived from a BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, the precipitable water vapor derived from radiosonde, and the precipitable water vapor derived from ERA5 reanalysis;
calculating a first root mean square error (RMSE) between the precipitable water vapor obtained by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System and the precipitable water vapor obtained by radiosonde; and
calculating a second RMSE between the precipitable water vapor obtained by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System and the precipitable water vapor obtained by ERA5 reanalysis data;
wherein if the first RMSE and the second RMSE are within a set range, it means an accuracy of a BeiDou Navigation Satellite System-precipitable water vapor (BDS-PWV) inversed by the precipitable water vapor obtained by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System passed a verification; otherwise, the verification is not passed;

a second acquisition module, configured to obtain thermal anomaly data of a land surface temperature after the earthquake in the target monitoring area in the historical period;
a time difference determination module, configured to determine a time difference between a peak value of the precipitable water vapor and a peak value of the thermal anomaly of the land surface temperature based on historical thermal anomaly data of the land surface temperature and historical precipitable water vapor of verified accuracy; and
a prediction output module, configured to detect a time point corresponding to the peak value of the thermal anomaly of the land surface temperature in the target monitoring area, add the time difference to the time point to obtain a predicted time point of the peak value of the precipitable water vapor, and output the predicted time point as a time point of secondary disaster when the earthquake occurs again in the target monitoring area.